WorldWideScience

Sample records for prevent severe epidemics

  1. Severe head injury in children - a preventable but forgotten epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Severe head injury in a child is a sociological disaster that crosses all sociological ... permanently disabled each year as a result of accidental injury." Over a ..... the daylight when transportation of the patient is more rapid; this results in some ...

  2. A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blower Sally

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

  3. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  4. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

  5. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Wu-Chun; de Vlas, Sake J; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

    2011-03-08

    This paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large geographical extent but clustered in two areas: first in Guangdong Province, and about 3 months later in Beijing with its surrounding areas. Reanalysis of all available epidemiological data resulted in a total of 5327 probable cases of SARS, of whom 343 died. The resulting case fatality ratio (CFR) of 6.4% was less than half of that in other SARS-affected countries or areas, and this difference could only partly be explained by younger age of patients and higher number of community acquired infections. Analysis of the impact of interventions demonstrated that strong political commitment and a centrally coordinated response was the most important factor to control SARS in mainland China, whereas the most stringent control measures were all initiated when the epidemic was already dying down. The long-term economic consequence of the epidemic was limited, much consumption was merely postponed, but for Beijing irrecoverable losses to the tourist sector were considerable. An important finding from a cohort study was that many former SARS patients currently suffer from avascular osteonecrosis, as a consequence of the treatment with corticosteroids during their infection. The SARS epidemic provided valuable information and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of newly emerging infectious diseases, and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system. In particular, a comprehensive nationwide internet-based disease reporting system was established.

  6. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuchun Cao

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large geographical extent but clustered in two areas: first in Guangdong Province, and about 3 months later in Beijing with its surrounding areas. Reanalysis of all available epidemiological data resulted in a total of 5327 probable cases of SARS, of whom 343 died. The resulting case fatality ratio (CFR of 6.4% was less than half of that in other SARS-affected countries or areas, and this difference could only partly be explained by younger age of patients and higher number of community acquired infections. Analysis of the impact of interventions demonstrated that strong political commitment and a centrally coordinated response was the most important factor to control SARS in mainland China, whereas the most stringent control measures were all initiated when the epidemic was already dying down. The long-term economic consequence of the epidemic was limited, much consumption was merely postponed, but for Beijing irrecoverable losses to the tourist sector were considerable. An important finding from a cohort study was that many former SARS patients currently suffer from avascular osteo­necrosis, as a consequence of the treatment with corticosteroids during their infection. The SARS epidemic provided valuable information and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of newly emerging infectious diseases, and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system. In particular, a comprehensive nation-wide internet-based disease reporting system was established.

  7. On the existence of a threshold for preventive behavioral responses to suppress epidemic spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahneh, Faryad Darabi; Chowdhury, Fahmida N; Scoglio, Caterina M

    2012-01-01

    The spontaneous behavioral responses of individuals to the progress of an epidemic are recognized to have a significant impact on how the infection spreads. One observation is that, even if the infection strength is larger than the classical epidemic threshold, the initially growing infection can diminish as the result of preventive behavioral patterns adopted by the individuals. In order to investigate such dynamics of the epidemic spreading, we use a simple behavioral model coupled with the individual-based SIS epidemic model where susceptible individuals adopt a preventive behavior when sensing infection. We show that, given any infection strength and contact topology, there exists a region in the behavior-related parameter space such that infection cannot survive in long run and is completely contained. Several simulation results, including a spreading scenario in a realistic contact network from a rural district in the State of Kansas, are presented to support our analytical arguments.

  8. Preventing the Epidemic of Mental Ill Health: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Robson , Anthony ,

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Diet, lifestyle and environment do not just affect a person's health, they also determine the health of their children and possibly the health of their grandchildren. Mental ill health is an epidemic worldwide because of the combined effect of the modern diet and a sedentary lifestyle. Primary prevention of mental ill health starts, crucially, with optimal adult nutrition before the inception of pregnancy, includes breastfeeding, and continues throughout the life of th...

  9. Preventing the Epidemic of Non-Communicable Diseases: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Robson , Anthony ,

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Diet, lifestyle and environment do not just affect a person's health, they also determine the health of their children and possibly the health of their grandchildren. Non-communicable disease is a global epidemic because of the combined effect of the modern diet (including drug abuse) and a sedentary lifestyle. A low energy dense, drug-free diet rich in bioavailable nutrients-plus-exercise is most effective for preventing non-communicable disease throughout life. Nanoc...

  10. Review. Systems for prevention and control of epidemic emergencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Calistri

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The development of early warning systems is fundamental for preventing the spread of infectious diseases. Data collection, however, is a costly activity and it is not possible to implement early warning systems everywhere and for all possible events. Hence, tools helping to improve the focus of surveillance efforts are of paramount importance. Risk assessment methods and other provisional modelling techniques may permit to estimate the probability of introduction and spread of infectious diseases in different geographical areas. Similarly, efficient information systems must be in place to assist the veterinary services in case of epidemic emergencies in order to support the prompt application of control measures for the containment of the infection and the reduction of the magnitude of negative consequences. This review describes two recent approaches to the estimation of the probability of introduction and spread of infectious diseases based on the use of risk maps/spatial modelling and Social Network Analysis (SNA techniques. The review also describes a web application developed in Italy to help official veterinary services to trace animals in case of outbreaks of infectious diseases.

  11. Epidemic assistance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: role of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, 1946-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thacker, Stephen B; Stroup, Donna F; Sencer, David J

    2011-12-01

    Since 1946, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has responded to urgent requests from US states, federal agencies, and international organizations through epidemic-assistance investigations (Epi-Aids). The authors describe the first 60 years of Epi-Aids, breadth of problems addressed, evolution of methodologies, scope of activities, and impact of investigations on population health. They reviewed Epi-Aid reports and EIS Bulletins, contacted current and former Epidemic Intelligence Service staff, and systematically searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases. They abstracted information on dates, location, staff involved, health problems, methods, and impacts of investigations according to a preplanned protocol. They assessed the methods presented as well as the quality of reports. During 1946-2005, a total of 4,484 investigations of health events were initiated by 2,815 Epidemic Intelligence Service officers. In the early years, the majority were in response to infectious agents, although environmental problems emerged. Investigations in subsequent years focused on occupational conditions, birth defects, reproductive health, tobacco use, cancer, violence, legal debate, and terrorism. These Epi-Aids heralded expansion of the agency's mission and presented new methods in statistics and epidemiology. Recommendations from Epi-Aids led to policy implementation, evaluation, or modification. Epi-Aids provide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the agility to respond rapidly to public health crises.

  12. Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Polanco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010 taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts.

  13. Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E.; Samaniego, José Lino; Buhse, Thomas; Villanueva-Martínez, Sebastián

    2013-01-01

    A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010) taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts. PMID:24069063

  14. CROI 2018: Epidemic Trends and Advances in HIV Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchbinder, Susan P; Liu, Albert Y

    2018-05-01

    At the 2018 Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, trends in and risk factors for in HIV infection were highlighted. In the United States, new HIV diagnoses are highest in the South and among African Americans and are increasing in rural areas. Youth remain highly vulnerable to HIV infection globally. The epidemiology of HIV infections among people who inject drugs is changing, with overdose deaths, a major public health concern. Phylogenetics are being used to identify HIV transmission clusters and hotspots, which can inform prevention efforts. Vaginal microbial dysbiosis and proteomic alterations are associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition, as are the pregnancy and postpartum periods. HIV testing is a central first step for the HIV care and treatment continua, and several innovative strategies to expand HIV testing coverage and frequency show promise. Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake is rapidly increasing in some cities, with reductions of new infections at the population level, but use is lower among African Americans and Latinos, youth, cis- and transgender women, and people who inject drugs. PrEP continuation remains a challenge. Two open-label extension studies of the dapivirine vaginal ring demonstrated high uptake, adherence, and reduced HIV infections. Several novel systemic and topical prevention agents show promise in non-human primates.

  15. Learning from Ebola Virus: How to Prevent Future Epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S. Kekulé

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone demonstrated that the World Health Organization (WHO is incapable to control outbreaks of infectious diseases in less developed regions of the world. This essay analyses the causes for the failure of the international response and proposes four measures to improve resilience, early detection and response to future outbreaks of infectious diseases.

  16. Secondary prevention of epidemic gastric cancer in the model of Helicobacter pylori-associated gastritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzi, Marco; Saraggi, Deborah; Fassan, Matteo; Megraud, Francis; Di Mario, Francesco; Rugge, Massimo

    2014-01-01

    Irrespective of its etiology, long-standing, non-self-limiting gastric inflammation (mostly in Helicobacter pylori-associated cases) is the cancerization ground on which epidemic (intestinal-type) gastric carcinoma (GC) can develop. The natural history of invasive gastric adenocarcinoma encompasses gastritis, atrophic mucosal changes, and intraepithelial neoplasia (IEN). The topography, the extent and the severity of the atrophic changes significantly correlate with the risk of developing both IEN and GC. In recent years, both noninvasive (serological) tests and invasive (endoscopy/biopsy) procedures have been proposed to stratify patients according to different classes of GC risk. As a consequence, different patient-tailored GC secondary prevention strategies have been put forward. This review summarizes the histological features of H. pylori-related gastritis and the natural history of the disease. Histological and serological strategies to assess GC risk as well as the clinical management of atrophic gastritis patients are also discussed. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Epidemic impacts of a community empowerment intervention for HIV prevention among female sex workers in generalized and concentrated epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, Andrea L; Pretorius, Carel; Beyrer, Chris; Baral, Stefan; Decker, Michele R; Sherman, Susan G; Sweat, Michael; Poteat, Tonia; Butler, Jennifer; Oelrichs, Robert; Semini, Iris; Kerrigan, Deanna

    2014-01-01

    Sex workers have endured a high burden of HIV infection in and across HIV epidemics. A comprehensive, community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention emphasizes sex worker organization and mobilization to address HIV risk and often includes community-led peer education, condom distribution, and other activities. Meta-analysis of such interventions suggests a potential 51% reduction in inconsistent condom use. Mathematical modeling exercises provide theoretical insight into potential impacts of the intervention on HIV incidence and burden in settings where interventions have not yet been implemented. We used a deterministic model, Goals, to project the impact on HIV infections when the community empowerment interventions were scaled up among female sex workers in Kenya, Thailand, Brazil, and Ukraine. Modeling scenarios included expansion of the comprehensive community empowerment-based HIV prevention intervention from baseline coverage over a 5-year period (5-65% in Kenya and Ukraine; 10-70% in Thailand and Brazil), while other interventions were held at baseline levels. A second exercise increased the intervention coverage simultaneously with equitable access to ART for sex workers. Impacts on HIV outcomes among sex workers and adults are observed from 2012-2016 and, compared to status quo when all interventions are held constant. Optimistic but feasible coverage (65%-70%) of the intervention demonstrated a range of impacts on HIV: 220 infections averted over 5 yrs. among sex workers in Thailand, 1,830 in Brazil, 2,220 in Ukraine, and 10,800 infections in Kenya. Impacts of the intervention for female sex workers extend to the adult population, cumulatively averting 730 infections in Thailand to 20,700 adult infections in Kenya. Impacts vary by country, influenced by HIV prevalence in risk groups, risk behaviors, intervention use, and population size. A community empowerment approach to HIV prevention and access to universal ART for female sex workers is a

  18. Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

    2010-08-01

    During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic

  19. Prevention of the Teenage Pregnancy Epidemic: A Social Learning Theory Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenhoff, Carol; And Others

    1987-01-01

    The review provides a social learning model for explaining adolescent sexual behavior and use/nonuse of contraceptives. The model explains behavior patterns responsible for epidemic rates of teenage pregnancies, suggests research that will result in prevention of teenage pregnancies, and incorporates a range of social/cultural factors. (DB)

  20. Evolving uses of oral reverse transcriptase inhibitors in the HIV-1 epidemic: From treatment to prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.K. Gupta (Ravindra); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); S. Manicklal (Sheetal); M.A. Wainberg (Mark)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThe HIV epidemic continues unabated, with no highly effective vaccine and no cure. Each new infection has significant economic, social and human costs and prevention efforts are now as great a priority as global antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale up. Reverse transcriptase inhibitors, the

  1. [Epidemic situation and prevention and control strategy of clonorchiasis in Guangdong Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo-Hui, Deng; Yue-Yi, Fang

    2016-05-24

    Clonorchiasis is one of the food-borne parasitic diseases. Adult parasites live in the human liver and gallbladder tube system, causing serious complications, such as gallstones, cholecystitis and cholangitis, and even bile duct cancer. The disease is very popular in our country, and the population infection rate is high. It is an important public health problem. Guangdong Province is the earliest province being found of clonorchiasis and with serious epidemic. In the second national human parasitic diseases distribution survey, the results showed that the average infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in the epidemic areas in Guangdong was 16.42%. It is estimated that the population of C. sinensis infection is over 6 million. The prevention and control of clonorchiasis in China is still in the initial stage currently and we face many challenges such as unclear epidemic characteristics and transmission mode, and lack of long-term prevention and control mechanism. This article introduces the epidemic situation of clonorchiasis and prevention and control strategies and measures in Guangdong.

  2. Gender inequality dynamics in the prevention of a heterosexual HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wathuta, Jane

    2016-01-01

    This paper critiques the approach to the elimination of gender inequality as an HIV prevention strategy in the just ended era of the Millennium Development Goals, with the aim of contributing to the formulation of policy guidelines for sub-Saharan Africa in the Sustainable Development Goals. The aim is to underscore the mutual responsibility of women and men in achieving a sustainable HIV response and ending the epidemic. While taking into account the real vulnerability of women, prevention programmes can reflect gender dynamics more accurately so that attention is given to the role of both sexes in propagating - or stemming - a predominantly heterosexual HIV epidemic. More emphasis could be given to the harm caused to both men and women by certain norms related to masculinity and sexuality, and the subsequent need for combined efforts in reducing intimate partner violence and concurrency. The empowerment and engagement of both women and men as agents of change would need to be dealt with more creatively.

  3. Dynamic complexities in a seasonal prevention epidemic model with birth pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Shujing; Chen Lansun; Sun Lihua

    2005-01-01

    In most of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-dependent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model with density-dependent birth pulses and seasonal prevention. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by stroboscopic map, we obtain the local or global stability, numerical simulation shows there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations, leading to chaotic dynamics, which implies that the dynamical behaviors of the epidemic model with birth pulses and seasonal prevention are very complex, including small amplitude oscillations, large-amplitude multi-annual cycles and chaos. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that may lead a period-doubling route to chaos

  4. Smoking uptake among Saudi adolescents: tobacco epidemic indicators and preventive actions needed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Mutaz; Eggers, Sander Matthijs; Alotaiby, Fahad Falah; de Vries, Nanne; de Vries, Hein

    2014-11-25

    The aim of this cross-sectional school-based study was to assess smoking prevalence, indicators for the smoking epidemic and determinants of smoking among Saudi adolescents. The study included 695 male adolescents from 11 to 16 years of age who filled out self-report questionnaires based on the European Smoking Framework Approach questionnaire, which uses the I-Change model to assess attitude, social influence and the self-efficacy of the participants. Smokers were 275 (39.6%) adolescents. Smokers tended to receive more daily pocket money, live in more affluent families and show lower academic performance. Non-smokers were inclined to believe that smoking may help people to feel relaxed and confident, encountered less social influences to smoke than smokers, but reported low self-efficacy not to smoke when with smoker friends and when offered a cigarette. Smokers reported the lowest self-efficacy not to smoke in all situations assessed. The results suggest the smoking epidemic among male Saudi adolescents may still be in the early stages, providing ample opportunity for preventive actions aimed at halting the further progress of this epidemic. Secondly, smoking prevention programs in Saudi Arabia need to reinforce non-smoking attitudes, address how to resist pressure to smoke, and how to develop high self-efficacy towards non-smoking in various situations. © The Author(s) 2014.

  5. Optimal information dissemination strategy to promote preventive behaviors in multilayer epidemic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakeri, Heman; Sahneh, Faryad Darabi; Scoglio, Caterina; Poggi-Corradini, Pietro; Preciado, Victor M

    2015-06-01

    Launching a prevention campaign to contain the spread of infection requires substantial financial investments; therefore, a trade-off exists between suppressing the epidemic and containing costs. Information exchange among individuals can occur as physical contacts (e.g., word of mouth, gatherings), which provide inherent possibilities of disease transmission, and non-physical contacts (e.g., email, social networks), through which information can be transmitted but the infection cannot be transmitted. Contact network (CN) incorporates physical contacts, and the information dissemination network (IDN) represents non-physical contacts, thereby generating a multilayer network structure. Inherent differences between these two layers cause alerting through CN to be more effective but more expensive than IDN. The constraint for an epidemic to die out derived from a nonlinear Perron-Frobenius problem that was transformed into a semi-definite matrix inequality and served as a constraint for a convex optimization problem. This method guarantees a dying-out epidemic by choosing the best nodes for adopting preventive behaviors with minimum monetary resources. Various numerical simulations with network models and a real-world social network validate our method.

  6. HIV epidemic appraisals for assisting in the design of effective prevention programmes: shifting the paradigm back to basics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharmistha Mishra

    Full Text Available To design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.We compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1 their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2 they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3 the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.Traditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with

  7. Role of healthcare workers in early epidemic spread of Ebola: policy implications of prophylactic compared to reactive vaccination policy in outbreak prevention and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltart, Cordelia E M; Johnson, Anne M; Whitty, Christopher J M

    2015-10-19

    Ebola causes severe illness in humans and has epidemic potential. How to deploy vaccines most effectively is a central policy question since different strategies have implications for ideal vaccine profile. More than one vaccine may be needed. A vaccine optimised for prophylactic vaccination in high-risk areas but when the virus is not actively circulating should be safe, well tolerated, and provide long-lasting protection; a two- or three-dose strategy would be realistic. Conversely, a reactive vaccine deployed in an outbreak context for ring-vaccination strategies should have rapid onset of protection with one dose, but longevity of protection is less important. In initial cases, before an outbreak is recognised, healthcare workers (HCWs) are at particular risk of acquiring and transmitting infection, thus potentially augmenting early epidemics. We hypothesise that many early outbreak cases could be averted, or epidemics aborted, by prophylactic vaccination of HCWs. This paper explores the potential impact of prophylactic versus reactive vaccination strategies of HCWs in preventing early epidemic transmissions. To do this, we use the limited data available from Ebola epidemics (current and historic) to reconstruct transmission trees and illustrate the theoretical impact of these vaccination strategies. Our data suggest a substantial potential benefit of prophylactic versus reactive vaccination of HCWs in preventing early transmissions. We estimate that prophylactic vaccination with a coverage >99% and theoretical 100% efficacy could avert nearly two-thirds of cases studied; 75% coverage would still confer clear benefit (40% cases averted), but reactive vaccination would be of less value in the early epidemic. A prophylactic vaccination campaign for front-line HCWs is not a trivial undertaking; whether to prioritise long-lasting vaccines and provide prophylaxis to HCWs is a live policy question. Prophylactic vaccination is likely to have a greater impact on the

  8. Prevention and mitigation of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisshaeupl, H.

    1996-01-01

    For the European Pressurized water Reactor (EPR), jointly developed by French and German industry, great emphasis is laid to gain further improvement in prevention of severe accidents based on the accumulative experience and proven technology of the French and German PWR reactors. In this evolutionary development, a balanced and comprehensive approach in respect to implement new passive features has been chosen. Improvements in each step of the defense in depth concept lead to a further decrease in the probability of occurrence of a severe accident with partial or even gross melting of the core. The different phenomenons that occur during such an hypothetical accident must be taken into account during the conception of specific measurements necessary to mitigate accident consequences. To cope with the consequences of a severe accident with core melt down means to deal with different phenomena which may threaten the integrity of the containment or may lead to an enhanced fission product release into the environment: high pressure reactor pressure vessel failure; energetic molten fuel coolant interaction; direct containment heating, molten core concrete interaction; hydrogen combustion; long term pressure and temperature increase in the containment. The EPR approach follows the recommendations from the DFD (Deutsch-Franzosischer Direktionsausschuss), jointly prepared by the French and German safety authorities. The EPR concept consist to prevent or eliminate as far as possible scenarios which are connected with high loads (high pressure failure of the reactor pressure vessel, or global hydrogen detonation etc..) by dedicated design provisions, and to deal with the consequences of severe accident scenarios which are not ruled out by specific safety measures. The measures comprise: the primary system depressurization; the control of hydrogen; the stabilisation and cooling of the melted core; the containment heat removal. They are completed by specific characteristics

  9. Clinical aspects of a nationwide epidemic of severe haemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gudmundsdottir Helga

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Report a nationwide epidemic of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC O103:H25 causing hemolytic uremic syndrome (D+HUS in children. Methods Description of clinical presentation, complications and outcome in a nationwide outbreak. Results Ten children (median age 4.3 years developed HUS during the outbreak. One of these was presumed to be a part of the outbreak without microbiological proof. Eight of the patients were oligoanuric and in need of dialysis. Median need for dialysis was 15 days; one girl did not regain renal function and received a kidney transplant. Four patients had seizures and/or reduced consciousness. Cerebral oedema and herniation caused the death of a 4-year-old boy. Two patients developed necrosis of colon with perforation and one of them developed non-autoimmune diabetes. Conclusion This outbreak of STEC was characterized by a high incidence of HUS among the infected children, and many developed severe renal disease and extrarenal complications. A likely explanation is that the O103:H25 (eae and stx2-positive strain was highly pathogen, and we suggest that this serotype should be looked for in patients with HUS caused by STEC, especially in severe forms or outbreaks.

  10. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  11. Factors related to severe dengue during an epidemic in Vitoria, State of Espirito Santo, Brazil, 2011

    OpenAIRE

    Vicente, Creuza Rachel; Lauar, Julia Castanheira; Santos, Bruna Silva; Cobe, Victor Marchesi; Cerutti Junior, Crispim

    2013-01-01

    Introduction The prognosis of dengue depends on early diagnosis and treatment, which can help prevent severe forms whose characteristics were evaluated here. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted involving dengue cases in Vitória, State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, in 2011. Results Two health regions registered 56.3% of 371 cases of severe dengue. Of these cases, 21.3% presented with dengue hemorrhagic fever. There were associations between dengue hemorrhagic fever with yo...

  12. Factors related to severe dengue during an epidemic in Vitoria, State of Espirito Santo, Brazil, 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Creuza Rachel Vicente

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The prognosis of dengue depends on early diagnosis and treatment, which can help prevent severe forms whose characteristics were evaluated here. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted involving dengue cases in Vitória, State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, in 2011. Results Two health regions registered 56.3% of 371 cases of severe dengue. Of these cases, 21.3% presented with dengue hemorrhagic fever. There were associations between dengue hemorrhagic fever with younger ages and a longer time before receiving care. Conclusions There was a greater involvement of dengue hemorrhagic fever in young people. Delay in care, poor urban quality and high endemicity were identified as possible risk factors for dengue severity.

  13. Infection prevention and control training and capacity building during the Ebola epidemic in Guinea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi M Soeters

    Full Text Available During the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a key epidemiological feature was disease transmission within healthcare facilities, indicating a need for infection prevention and control (IPC training and support.IPC training was provided to frontline healthcare workers (HCW in healthcare facilities that were not Ebola treatment units, as well as to IPC trainers and IPC supervisors placed in healthcare facilities. Trainings included both didactic and hands-on components, and were assessed using pre-tests, post-tests and practical evaluations. We calculated median percent increase in knowledge.From October-December 2014, 20 IPC courses trained 1,625 Guineans: 1,521 HCW, 55 IPC trainers, and 49 IPC supervisors. Median test scores increased 40% (interquartile range [IQR]: 19-86% among HCW, 15% (IQR: 8-33% among IPC trainers, and 21% (IQR: 15-30% among IPC supervisors (all P<0.0001 to post-test scores of 83%, 93%, and 93%, respectively.IPC training resulted in clear improvements in knowledge and was feasible in a public health emergency setting. This method of IPC training addressed a high demand among HCW. Valuable lessons were learned to facilitate expansion of IPC training to other prefectures; this model may be considered when responding to other large outbreaks.

  14. Infection prevention and control training and capacity building during the Ebola epidemic in Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivogui, Lamine; de Beer, Lindsey; Johnson, Candice Y.; Diaby, Dianka; Ouedraogo, Abdoulaye; Touré, Fatoumata; Bangoura, Fodé Ousmane; Chang, Michelle A.; Chea, Nora; Dotson, Ellen M.; Finlay, Alyssa; Fitter, David; Hamel, Mary J.; Hazim, Carmen; Larzelere, Maribeth; Park, Benjamin J.; Rowe, Alexander K.; Thompson-Paul, Angela M.; Twyman, Anthony; Barry, Moumié; Ntaw, Godlove; Diallo, Alpha Oumar

    2018-01-01

    Background During the 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a key epidemiological feature was disease transmission within healthcare facilities, indicating a need for infection prevention and control (IPC) training and support. Methods IPC training was provided to frontline healthcare workers (HCW) in healthcare facilities that were not Ebola treatment units, as well as to IPC trainers and IPC supervisors placed in healthcare facilities. Trainings included both didactic and hands-on components, and were assessed using pre-tests, post-tests and practical evaluations. We calculated median percent increase in knowledge. Results From October–December 2014, 20 IPC courses trained 1,625 Guineans: 1,521 HCW, 55 IPC trainers, and 49 IPC supervisors. Median test scores increased 40% (interquartile range [IQR]: 19–86%) among HCW, 15% (IQR: 8–33%) among IPC trainers, and 21% (IQR: 15–30%) among IPC supervisors (all P<0.0001) to post-test scores of 83%, 93%, and 93%, respectively. Conclusions IPC training resulted in clear improvements in knowledge and was feasible in a public health emergency setting. This method of IPC training addressed a high demand among HCW. Valuable lessons were learned to facilitate expansion of IPC training to other prefectures; this model may be considered when responding to other large outbreaks. PMID:29489885

  15. Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A; Oksuzyan, Anna

    2018-01-01

    Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We...... investigate the survival of both sexes in seven populations under extreme conditions from famines, epidemics, and slavery. Women survived better than men: In all populations, they had lower mortality across almost all ages, and, with the exception of one slave population, they lived longer on average than men...

  16. Severe accident management. Prevention and Mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    Effective planning for the management of severe accidents at nuclear power plants can produce both a reduction in the frequency of such accidents as well as the ability to mitigate their consequences if and when they should occur. This report provides an overview of accident management activities in OECD countries. It also presents the conclusions of a group of international experts regarding the development of accident management methods, the integration of accident management planning into reactor operations, and the benefits of accident management

  17. Collective effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures and differential rate of transmission on spread of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagar, Vikram; Zhao, Yi

    2017-02-01

    In the present work, the effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures is studied on the spread of epidemics over scale free networks that are characterized by the differential rate of disease transmission. The role of personal behavior induced preventive measures is parameterized in terms of variable λ, which modulates the number of concurrent contacts a node makes with the fraction of its neighboring nodes. The dynamics of the disease is described by a non-linear Susceptible Infected Susceptible model based upon the discrete time Markov Chain method. The network mean field approach is generalized to account for the effect of non-linear coupling between the aforementioned factors on the collective dynamics of nodes. The upper bound estimates of the disease outbreak threshold obtained from the mean field theory are found to be in good agreement with the corresponding non-linear stochastic model. From the results of parametric study, it is shown that the epidemic size has inverse dependence on the preventive measures (λ). It has also been shown that the increase in the average degree of the nodes lowers the time of spread and enhances the size of epidemics.

  18. Preventing drug resistance in severe influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrovolny, Hana; Deecke, Lucas

    2015-03-01

    Severe, long-lasting influenza infections are often caused by new strains of influenza. The long duration of these infections leads to an increased opportunity for the emergence of drug resistant mutants. This is particularly problematic for new strains of influenza since there is often no vaccine, so drug treatment is the first line of defense. One strategy for trying to minimize drug resistance is to apply periodic treatment. During treatment the wild-type virus decreases, but resistant virus might increase; when there is no treatment, wild-type virus will hopefully out-compete the resistant virus, driving down the number of resistant virus. We combine a mathematical model of severe influenza with a model of drug resistance to study emergence of drug resistance during a long-lasting infection. We apply periodic treatment with two types of antivirals: neuraminidase inhibitors, which block release of virions; and adamantanes, which block replication of virions. We compare the efficacy of the two drugs in reducing emergence of drug resistant mutants and examine the effect of treatment frequency on the emergence of drug resistant mutants.

  19. Feasibility study for epidemic prevention and control in a regional hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yung-Liang; Yeh, Ming-Yang; Huang, Shau-Yen; Liu, Chi-Ming; Sun, Chi-Chen; Lu, Hsu-Feng; Chiu, Tsan-Hung; Hsia, Te-Chun; Chung, Jing-Gung

    2012-03-01

    Epidemic prevention policies in hospitals address issues such as, indoor air quality control, cleanliness of medical staff clothing and employee hand-washing procedures. Our hospital employed Bio-Kil to treat air-conditioning filters and nursing staff uniforms. We also assessed the efficacy of different detergents. Using Bio-Kil technology, the mean bacterial count in the air was reduced from 108.8 CFU/h/plate (n=420) to 68.6 CFU/h/plate (n=630). On the lower hems of the Bio-Kil-treated gowns, the mean bacterial count was 1,201 CFU/100 cm(2), markedly lower than the bacterial count of 7,753 CFU/100 cm(2), found on the parts of the gowns not treated with Bio-Kil (p=0.0401). On the cuffs of sleeves treated with Bio-Kil, the mean count was 1,165 CFU/100 cm(2), markedly lower than that of 2,131 CFU/100 cm(2), found on the cuffs not treated with Bio-Kil (p=0.0073). With regard to the mean bacterial eradication rates of antimicrobial solutions, Steridal Solution, 75% alcohol and Bio-Kil (3rd generation) were shown to be the most effective, with rates exceeding 80%. Hibiscrub with paper towels and Fresh Protect Skin were the second most effective. Bio-Kil (1st generation), tap water with paper towels, liquid hand soap with paper towels and ozone water were the least effective. One important observation was that hand-washing without the use of paper towels increased the bacterial count by as much as 84% . Bio-Kil is effective in reducing bacterial counts in the air, on nursing staff uniforms and is an effective detergent.

  20. Geographic variation in sexual behavior can explain geospatial heterogeneity in the severity of the HIV epidemic in Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palk, Laurence; Blower, Sally

    2018-02-09

    In sub-Saharan Africa, where ~ 25 million individuals are infected with HIV and transmission is predominantly heterosexual, there is substantial geographic variation in the severity of epidemics. This variation has yet to be explained. Here, we propose that it is due to geographic variation in the size of the high-risk group (HRG): the group with a high number of sex partners. We test our hypothesis by conducting a geospatial analysis of data from Malawi, where ~ 13% of women and ~ 8% of men are infected with HIV. We used georeferenced HIV testing and behavioral data from ~ 14,000 participants of a nationally representative population-level survey: the 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS). We constructed gender-stratified epidemic surface prevalence (ESP) maps by spatially smoothing and interpolating the HIV testing data. We used the behavioral data to construct gender-stratified risk maps that reveal geographic variation in the size of the HRG. We tested our hypothesis by fitting gender-stratified spatial error regression (SER) models to the MDHS data. The ESP maps show considerable geographic variation in prevalence: 1-29% (women), 1-20% (men). Risk maps reveal substantial geographic variation in the size of the HRG: 0-40% (women), 16-58% (men). Prevalence and the size of the HRG are highest in urban centers. However, the majority of HIV-infected individuals (~75% of women, ~ 80% of men) live in rural areas, as does most of the HRG (~ 80% of women, ~ 85% of men). We identify a significant (P national average in districts where > 20% of women are in the HRG. Most importantly, the SER models show that geographic variation in the size of the HRG can explain a substantial proportion (73% for women, 67% for men) of the geographic variation in epidemic severity. Taken together, our results provide substantial support for our hypothesis. They provide a potential mechanistic explanation for the geographic variation in the severity

  1. Molecular Epidemiology of Epidemic Severe Malaria Caused by Plasmodium vivax in the State of Amazonas, Brazil

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Santos-Ciminera, Patricia D

    2005-01-01

    .... In Manaus, the capital of Amazonas, atypical cases of Plasmodium vivax infections, including patients presenting with severe thrombocytopenia and bleeding, led to the hypothesis that severe disease...

  2. Impact of infectious disease epidemics on tuberculosis diagnostic, management, and prevention services: experiences and lessons from the 2014–2015 Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashid Ansumana

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The World Health Organization (WHO Global Tuberculosis Report 2015 states that 28% of the world's 9.6 million new tuberculosis (TB cases are in the WHO Africa Region. The Mano River Union (MRU countries of West Africa–Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia–have made incremental sustained investments into TB control programmes over the past two decades. The devastating Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak of 2014–2015 in West Africa impacted significantly on all sectors of the healthcare systems in the MRU countries, including the TB prevention and control programmes. The EVD outbreak also had an adverse impact on the healthcare workforce and healthcare service delivery. At the height of the EVD outbreak, numerous staff members in all MRU countries contracted EBV at the Ebola treatment units and died. Many healthcare workers were also infected in healthcare facilities that were not Ebola treatment units but were national hospitals and peripheral health units that were unprepared for receiving patients with EVD. In all three MRU countries, the disruption to TB services due to the EVD epidemic will no doubt have increased Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission, TB morbidity and mortality, and decreased patient adherence to TB treatment, and the likely impact will not be known for several years to come. In this viewpoint, the impact that the EVD outbreak had on TB diagnostic, management, and prevention services is described. Vaccination against TB with BCG in children under 5 years of age was affected adversely by the EVD epidemic. The EVD outbreak was a result of global failure and represents yet another ‘wake-up call’ to the international community, and particularly to African governments, to reach a consensus on new ways of thinking at the national, regional, and global levels for building healthcare systems that can sustain their function during outbreaks. This is necessary so that other disease control programmes (like those for TB, malaria

  3. Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A; Oksuzyan, Anna; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Christensen, Kaare; Vaupel, James W

    2018-01-23

    Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We investigate the survival of both sexes in seven populations under extreme conditions from famines, epidemics, and slavery. Women survived better than men: In all populations, they had lower mortality across almost all ages, and, with the exception of one slave population, they lived longer on average than men. Gender differences in infant mortality contributed the most to the gender gap in life expectancy, indicating that newborn girls were able to survive extreme mortality hazards better than newborn boys. Our results confirm the ubiquity of a female survival advantage even when mortality is extraordinarily high. The hypothesis that the survival advantage of women has fundamental biological underpinnings is supported by the fact that under very harsh conditions females survive better than males even at infant ages when behavioral and social differences may be minimal or favor males. Our findings also indicate that the female advantage differs across environments and is modulated by social factors. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  4. Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A.; Oksuzyan, Anna; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Christensen, Kaare; Vaupel, James W.

    2018-01-01

    Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We investigate the survival of both sexes in seven populations under extreme conditions from famines, epidemics, and slavery. Women survived better than men: In all populations, they had lower mortality across almost all ages, and, with the exception of one slave population, they lived longer on average than men. Gender differences in infant mortality contributed the most to the gender gap in life expectancy, indicating that newborn girls were able to survive extreme mortality hazards better than newborn boys. Our results confirm the ubiquity of a female survival advantage even when mortality is extraordinarily high. The hypothesis that the survival advantage of women has fundamental biological underpinnings is supported by the fact that under very harsh conditions females survive better than males even at infant ages when behavioral and social differences may be minimal or favor males. Our findings also indicate that the female advantage differs across environments and is modulated by social factors. PMID:29311321

  5. Effects of a Severe Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in Western Alberta, Canada under Two Forest Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard R. Schneider

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We used a simulation model to investigate possible effects of a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins epidemic under two management scenarios in Alberta, Canada. Our simulated outbreak was based on the current epidemic in British Columbia, which may kill close to 80% of the province's pine volume. Our two management scenarios were conventional harvest and a pine-reduction strategy modeled on a component of Alberta's Mountain Pine Beetle Management Strategy. The pine strategy seeks to reduce the number of susceptible pine stands by 75% over the next 20 years through targeted harvesting by the forest industry. Our simulations showed that the pine strategy could not be effectively implemented, even if the onset of the beetle outbreak was delayed for 20 years. Even though we increased mill capacity by 20% and directed all harvesting to high volume pine stands during the pine strategy's surge cut, the amount of highly susceptible pine was reduced by only 43%. Additional pine volume remained within mixed stands that were not targeted by the pine strategy. When the outbreak occurred in each scenario, sufficient pine remained on the landscape for the beetle to cause the timber supply to collapse. Alternative management approaches and avenues for future research are discussed.

  6. HIV epidemics and prevention responses in Asia and Eastern Europe: lessons to be learned?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bridge, Jamie; Lazarus, Jeff; Atun, Rifat

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes characteristics of the HIV epidemics in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) and Asia and Central Asia, and draws comparisons between these regions. It focuses on the role that key populations continue to play in HIV transmission in both regions, the challenges that this po...

  7. The Ebola threat: China's response to the West African epidemic and national development of prevention and control policies and infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Hao-Jun; Gao, Hong-Wei; Ding, Hui; Zhang, Bi-Ke; Hou, Shi-Ke

    2015-02-01

    There is growing concern in West Africa about the spread of the Ebola hemorrhagic fever virus. With the increasing global public health risk, a coordinated international response is necessary. The Chinese government is prepared to work in collaboration with West African countries to assist in the containment and control of the epidemic through the contribution of medical expertise and mobile laboratory testing teams. Nationally, China is implementing prevention programs in major cities and provinces, the distribution of Ebola test kits, and the deployment of a new national Ebola research laboratory.

  8. System 80+ design features for severe accident prevention and mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, M.C.; Schneider, R.E.; Finnicum, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    ABB-CE, in cooperation with the US Department of Energy, is working to develop and certify the System 80+ design, which is ABB-CE's standardized evolutionary Advanced Light Water Reactor (ALWR) design. It incorporates design enhancements based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) insights, guidance from the EPRI's Utility Requirements Document, and US NRC's Severe Accident Policy. Major severe accident prevention and mitigation design features of the system is discussed along with its conformance to EPRI URD guidance, as applicable. Computer simulation of a best estimate severe accident scenario is presented to illustrate the acceptable containment performance of the design. It is concluded that by considering severe accident prevention and mitigation early in the design process, the System 80+ design represents a robust plant design that has low core damage frequencies, low containment conditional failure probabilities, and acceptable deterministic containment performance under severe accident conditions

  9. Epidemic cholera in rural El Salvador: risk factors in a region covered by a cholera prevention campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quick, R E; Thompson, B L; Zuniga, A; Dominguez, G; De Brizuela, E L; De Palma, O; Almeida, S; Valencia, A; Ries, A A; Bean, N H

    1995-04-01

    In response to the Latin American cholera epidemic, El Salvador began a prevention programme in April 1991. The first case was confirmed in August, and 700 cases were reported within 3 months. A matched case-control study was conducted in rural La Libertad Department in November 1991. Illness was associated with eating cold cooked or raw seafood (odds ratio [OR] = 7.0; 95% confidence limits [CL] = 1.4, 35.0) and with drinking water outside the home (OR = 8.8; 95% CL = 1.7, 44.6). Assertion of knowledge about how to prevent cholera (OR = 0.2; 95% CL = 0.1, 0.8) and eating rice (OR = 0.2; 95% CL = 0.1, 0.8) were protective. More controls than patients regularly used soap (OR = 0.3; 95% CL = 0.1, 1.0). This study demonstrated three important points for cholera prevention: (1) seafood should be eaten cooked and hot; (2) populations at risk should be taught to treat household drinking water and to avoid drinking water outside the home unless it is known to be treated; and (3) education about hygiene can be an important tool in preventing cholera.

  10. Breaking the Silence and Other Prevention Lessons From the Opioid Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Paul E

    2018-05-01

    The goal of this editorial is to equip readers with opioid education resources that enable you to role model what it looks like to speak out about addiction. How are we doing as a profession speaking up about addiction? Stigma is commanded by a deep irony: where peer pressure is what likely keeps us quiet, peer support is what enables us to speak up. The "#MeToo" movement is an extraordinary example of the inertia needed to break open a taboo topic. From Hollywood celebrities to US women's gymnastics stars, it was clear that as more women spoke up about sexual harassment, well, the more women spoke out. As unnatural as it felt to talk about being harassed or abused, many simply acknowledged that it was the courage of their peers that helped them find their courage. Workplace supervisors have a front row seat for watching the epidemic and our role relates to what I consider the most straightforward definition of addiction: It is when "it" (i.e., alcohol, opioids, gambling) begins to cause problems.

  11. Strategies for the prevention and mitigation of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ader, C.; Heusener, G.; Snell, V.G.

    1999-01-01

    The currently operating nuclear power plants have, in general, achieved a high level of safety, as a result of design philosophies that have emphasized concepts such as defense-in-depth. This type of an approach has resulted in plants that have robust designs and strong containments. These designs were later found to have capabilities to protect the public from severe accidents (accidents more severe than traditional design basis in which substantial damage is done to the reactor core). In spite of this high level of safety, it has also been recognized that future plants need to be designed to achieve an enhanced level of safety, in particular with respect to severe accidents. This has led both regulatory authorities and utilities to develop guidance and/or requirements to guide plant designers in achieving improved severe accident performance through prevention and mitigation. The considerable research programs initiated after the TMI-2 accident have provided a large body of technical data, analytical methods, and the expertise necessary to provide for an understanding of a range of severe accident phenomena. This understanding of the ways severe accidents can progress and challenge containments, combined with the wide use of probabilistic safety assessments, have provided designers of evolutionary water cooled reactors opportunities to develop designs that minimize the challenges to the plant and to the public from severe accidents, including the development of accident management strategies intended to further reduce the risk of severe accidents. This paper describes some of the recent progress made in the understanding of severe accidents and related safety assessment methodology and how this knowledge has supported the incorporation of features into representative evolutionary designs that will prevent or mitigate many of the severe accident challenges present in current plants. (author)

  12. Evaluation of strategies for severe accident prevention and mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokarz, R.

    1989-01-01

    The NRC is planning to establish regulatory oversight on severe accident management capability in the US nuclear reactor industry. Accident management includes certain preparatory and recovery measures that can be taken by the plant operating and technical personnel to prevent or mitigate the consequences of a severe accident. Following an initiating event, accident management strategies include measures to (1) prevent core damage, (2) arrest the core damage if it begins and retain the core inside the vessel, (3) maintain containment integrity if the vessel is breached, and (4) minimize offsite releases. Objectives of the NRC Severe Accident Management Program are to assure that technically sound strategies are identified and guidance to implement these strategies is provided to utilities. This paper will describe work performed to date by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and Battelle Memorial Institute (BMI) relative to severe accident strategy evaluation, as well as work to be performed and expected results. Working with Brookhaven National Laboratory, PNL evaluated a series of NRC suggested accident management strategies. The evaluation of these strategies was divided between PNL and Brookhaven National Laboratory and a similar paper will be presented by Brookhaven regarding their strategy evaluation. This paper will stress the overall safety issues related to the research and emphasize the strategies that are applicable to major safety issues. The relationship of these research activities to other projects is discussed, as well as planning for future changes in the direction of work to be undertaken

  13. [Epidemic situation of oversea imported schistosomiasis in China and thinking about its prevention and control].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Rong; Xu, Jing

    2014-04-01

    The imported schistosomiasis cases in the Chinese literature and reports from the infectious disease monitoring information system from 1979 to 2013 were collected and compiled. Totally 365 cases were reported to be infected with outside schistosomiasis, including 239 cases of schistosomiasis haematobia (74.0%) and 71 cases of schistosomiasis mansoni (22.0%), and 42 foreigners (11.5%) and 323 Chinese (88.5%). The infection areas involved 15 countries and regions in Africa. Totally 74.92% of patients worked in the construction or geological prospecting in the wild field. According to the analysis of these cases, we found that the management system of prevention and control of imported schistosomiasis cases was not perfect including the high missing re-port rate, high misdiagnosis rate, and no standard diagnostic criteria. We suggest that all the levels of CDC or health administrative authorities should adopt the following relevant control measures to strengthen the imported schistosomiasis prevention and control in order to reduce the damage to the public health and the risk of the spread of African schistosomiasis in China: (1) to establish and perfect the imported schistosomiasis monitoring and control system in China; (2) to integrate the dynamic information platform of labor export and establish the comprehensive prevention and control management system of infectious diseases; (3) to standardize the diagnosis and treatment of oversea imported schistosomiasis; (4) to strengthen the research on the transmission risk of imported schistosomiasis in the territory of China.

  14. Engineering behaviour change in an epidemic: the epistemology of NIH-funded HIV prevention science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Adam; Kolar, Kat

    2015-05-01

    Social scientific and public health literature on National Institutes of Health-funded HIV behavioural prevention science often assumes that this body of work has a strong biomedical epistemological orientation. We explore this assumption by conducting a systematic content analysis of all NIH-funded HIV behavioural prevention grants for men who have sex with men between 1989 and 2012. We find that while intervention research strongly favours a biomedical orientation, research into the antecedents of HIV risk practices favours a sociological, interpretive and structural orientation. Thus, with respect to NIH-funded HIV prevention science, there exists a major disjunct in the guiding epistemological orientations of how scientists understand HIV risk, on the one hand, and how they engineer behaviour change in behavioural interventions, on the other. Building on the extant literature, we suggest that the cause of this disjunct is probably attributable not to an NIH-wide positivist orientation, but to the specific standards of evidence used to adjudicate HIV intervention grant awards, including randomised controlled trials and other quantitative measures of intervention efficacy. © 2015 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2015 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Can timely vector control interventions triggered by atypical environmental conditions prevent malaria epidemics? A case-study from Wajir County, Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Maes

    Full Text Available Atypical environmental conditions with drought followed by heavy rainfall and flooding in arid areas in sub-Saharan Africa can lead to explosive epidemics of malaria, which might be prevented through timely vector-control interventions.Wajir County in Northeast Kenya is classified as having seasonal malaria transmission. The aim of this study was to describe in Wajir town the environmental conditions, the scope and timing of vector-control interventions and the associated resulting burden of malaria at two time periods (1996-1998 and 2005-2007.This is a cross-sectional descriptive and ecological study using data collected for routine program monitoring and evaluation.In both time periods, there were atypical environmental conditions with drought and malnutrition followed by massive monthly rainfall resulting in flooding and animal/human Rift Valley Fever. In 1998, this was associated with a large and explosive malaria epidemic (weekly incidence rates peaking at 54/1,000 population/week with vector-control interventions starting over six months after the massive rainfall and when the malaria epidemic was abating. In 2007, vector-control interventions started sooner within about three months after the massive rainfall and no malaria epidemic was recorded with weekly malaria incidence rates never exceeding 0.5 per 1,000 population per week.Did timely vector-control interventions in Wajir town prevent a malaria epidemic? In 2007, the neighboring county of Garissa experienced similar climatic events as Wajir, but vector-control interventions started six months after the heavy un-seasonal rainfall and large scale flooding resulted in a malaria epidemic with monthly incidence rates peaking at 40/1,000 population. In conclusion, this study suggests that atypical environmental conditions can herald a malaria outbreak in certain settings. In turn, this should alert responsible stakeholders about the need to act rapidly and preemptively with appropriate

  16. Controlling HIV Epidemics among Injection Drug Users: Eight Years of Cross-Border HIV Prevention Interventions in Vietnam and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammett, Theodore M.; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Kling, Ryan; Kieu, Binh Thanh; McNicholl, Janet M.; Wasinrapee, Punneeporn; McDougal, J. Stephen; Liu, Wei; Chen, Yi; Meng, Donghua; Huu Nguyen, Tho; Ngoc Hoang, Quyen; Van Hoang, Tren

    2012-01-01

    Introduction HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002–2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China. Methods Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples. Results We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [pHIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36–48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months. Discussion This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication. PMID:22952640

  17. Hyperthyroidism in cats: what's causing this epidemic of thyroid disease and can we prevent it?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Mark

    2012-11-01

    Since first being reported in the late 1970s, there has been a dramatic increase in the prevalence of hyperthyroidism in cats. It is now recognized worldwide as the most common feline endocrine disorder. Hyperthyroidism is an important cause of morbidity in cats older than 10 years of age. It is estimated that over 10% of all senior cats will develop the disorder. Despite its frequency, the underlying cause(s) of this common disease is/are not known, and no one has suggested a means to prevent the disorder. Because of the multiple risk factors that have been described for feline hyperthyroidism, it is likely that more than one factor is involved in its pathogenesis. Continuous, lifelong exposure to environmental thyroid disruptor chemicals or goitrogens in food or water, acting together in an additive or synergistic manner, may first lead to euthyroid goiter and then to autonomous adenomatous hyperplasia, thyroid adenoma and hyperthyroidism. This review draws on published research studies to summarize the available evidence about the risk factors for feline hyperthyroidism. Based on the known goitrogens that may be present in the cat's food, drinking water or environment, it proposes measures that cat owners can implement that might prevent, or reduce the prevalence of, thyroid tumors and hyperthyroidism in their cats.

  18. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  19. Preventing the obesity epidemic by second generation tailored health communication: an interdisciplinary review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enwald, Heidi Päivyt Karoliina; Huotari, Maija-Leena Aulikki

    2010-06-28

    The prevention of obesity and health concerns related to obesity are major challenges worldwide. The use of eHealth communication and the tailoring of information delivered via the Internet at the individual level may increase the effectiveness of interventions. Mastering behaviors related to nutrition, physical activity, and weight management are the main issues in preventing obesity, and the need for interdisciplinary knowledge within this area is obvious. The objectives were to review the literature on tailored health communication and to present an interdisciplinary analysis of studies on "second" generation tailored interventions aimed at behavior change in nutrition, physical activity, or weight management. A literature search was conducted of the main electronic information sources on health communication. Selection criteria were defined, and 23 intervention studies were selected. The content analysis focused on the following: study designs, objectives of behavior change, target groups, sample sizes, study lengths, attrition rates, theories applied, intervention designs, computer-based channels used, statistically significant outcomes from the perspective of tailoring, and possible biases of the studies. However, this was not a structured meta-analysis and cannot be replicated as such. Of the 23 studies, 21 were randomized controlled trials, and all focused on behavior change: 10 studies focused on behavior change in nutrition, 7 on physical activity, 2 on nutrition and physical activity, and 4 on weight management. The target groups and the number of participants varied: 8 studies included more than 500 participants, and 6 studies included less than 100. Most studies were short; the duration of 20 studies was 6 months or less. The Transtheoretical Model was applied in 14 of the 23 studies, and feedback as a tailoring mechanism was used in addition to an Internet site (or program) in 15 studies and in addition to email in 11 studies. Self-reporting was used

  20. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tentner, A.M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.

    2010-01-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  1. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  2. Prevention of heavy missiles during severe PWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krieg, R.

    1994-01-01

    For future pressurized water reactors, which should be designed against core melt down accidents, missiles generated inside the containment present a severe problem for its integrity. The masses and geometries of the missiles as well as their velocities may vary to a great extend. Therefore, a reliable proof of the containment integrity is very difficult. To overcome this problem the potential sources of missiles are discussed. In section 5 it is concluded that the generation of heavy missiles must be prevented. Steam explosions must not damage the reactor vessel head. Thus fragments of the head cannot become missiles endangering the containment shell. Furthermore, during a melt-through failure of the reactor vessel under high pressure the resulting forces must not catapult the whole vessel against the containment shell. Only missiles caused by hydrogen explosions might be tolerable, but shielding structures which protect the containment shell might be required. Here further investigations are necessary. Finally, measures are described showing that the generation of heavy missiles can indeed be prevented. In section 6 investigations are explained which will confirm the strength of the reactor vessel head. In section 7 a device is discussed keeping the fragments of a failing reactor vessel at its place. (author). 12 refs., 8 figs

  3. Enhanced Severe Transient Analysis for Prevention Technical Program Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gougar, Hans [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    This document outlines the development of a high fidelity, best estimate nuclear power plant severe transient simulation capability that will complement or enhance the integral system codes historically used for licensing and analysis of severe accidents. As with other tools in the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Toolkit, the ultimate user of Enhanced Severe Transient Analysis and Prevention (ESTAP) capability is the plant decision-maker; the deliverable to that customer is a modern, simulation-based safety analysis capability, applicable to a much broader class of safety issues than is traditional Light Water Reactor (LWR) licensing analysis. Currently, the RISMC pathway’s major emphasis is placed on developing RELAP-7, a next-generation safety analysis code, and on showing how to use RELAP-7 to analyze margin from a modern point of view: that is, by characterizing margin in terms of the probabilistic spectra of the “loads” applied to systems, structures, and components (SSCs), and the “capacity” of those SSCs to resist those loads without failing. The first objective of the ESTAP task, and the focus of one task of this effort, is to augment RELAP-7 analyses with user-selected multi-dimensional, multi-phase models of specific plant components to simulate complex phenomena that may lead to, or exacerbate, severe transients and core damage. Such phenomena include: coolant crossflow between PWR assemblies during a severe reactivity transient, stratified single or two-phase coolant flow in primary coolant piping, inhomogeneous mixing of emergency coolant water or boric acid with hot primary coolant, and water hammer. These are well-documented phenomena associated with plant transients but that are generally not captured in system codes. They are, however, generally limited to specific components, structures, and operating conditions. The second ESTAP task is to similarly augment a severe (post-core damage) accident integral analyses code

  4. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  5. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  6. Improving older adults' knowledge and practice of preventive measures through a telephone health education during the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Sophia S C; So, Winnie K W; Wong, David C N; Lee, Angel C K; Tiwari, Agnes

    2007-09-01

    The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong posed many challenges for health promotion activities among a group of older adults with low socio-economic status (SES). With concerns that this vulnerable group could be at higher risk of contracting the disease or spreading it to others, the implementation of health promotion activities appropriate to this group was considered to be essential during the epidemic. To assess the effectiveness of delivering a telephone health education programme dealing with anxiety levels, and knowledge and practice of measures to prevent transmission of SARS among a group of older adults with low SES. Pretest/posttest design. Subjects were recruited from registered members of a government subsidized social service center in Hong Kong and living in low-cost housing estates. The eligibility criteria were: (1) aged 55 or above; (2) able to speak Cantonese; (3) no hearing impairment, and (4) reachable by telephone. Of the 295 eligible subjects, 122 older adults completed the whole study. The interviewers approached all eligible subjects by telephone during the period of 15-25 May 2003. After obtaining the participants' verbal consent, the interviewer collected baseline data by use of a questionnaire and implemented a health education programme. A follow-up telephone call was made a week later using the same questionnaire. The level of anxiety was lowered (t=3.28, p<0.001), and knowledge regarding the transmission routes of droplets (p<0.001) and urine and feces (p<0.01) were improved after the intervention. Although statistical significant difference was found in the practice of identified preventive measures before and after intervention, influence on behavioral changes needed further exploration. The telephone health education seemed to be effective in relieving anxiety and improving knowledge of the main transmission routes of SARS in this group, but not the practice of preventing SARS. Telephone contact appears

  7. HIV epidemic and human rights among men who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for HIV prevention, care, and surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abara, Winston E; Garba, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Recent research has presented evidence that men who have sex with men (MSM) bear a disproportionate burden of HIV and are at increased risk for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, many countries in SSA have failed to address the needs of MSM in national HIV/AIDS programmes. Furthermore, many MSM face structural barriers to HIV prevention and care, the most significant of which include laws that criminalise male-to-male sexual contact and facilitate stigma and discrimination. This in turn increases the vulnerability of MSM to acquiring HIV and presents barriers to HIV prevention, care, and surveillance. This relationship illustrates the link between human rights, social justice, and health outcomes and presents considerable challenges to addressing the HIV epidemic among MSM in SSA. The response to the HIV epidemic in SSA requires a non-discriminatory human rights approach to all at-risk groups, including MSM. Existing international human rights treaties, to which many SSA countries are signatories, and a 'health in all policies' approach provides a strong basis to reduce structural barriers to HIV prevention, care, surveillance, and research, and to ensure that all populations in SSA, including MSM, have access to the full range of rights that help ensure equal opportunities for health and wellness.

  8. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  9. Rationale for an HIV / AIDS prevention and mitigation strategy for Africa: combatting the multisectoral impact of the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, W H

    1996-01-01

    Unlike most infectious diseases in Africa, HIV/AIDS affects the urban elite as well as the rural poor, and generally during their most economically productive years. An increase in deaths among young adults of the magnitude predicted is likely to have substantial adverse effects on economic, political, and military/security stability throughout Africa. AIDS is causing increased stress on fragile African economic infrastructures as labor productivity declines, particularly in agricultural, labor-dependent economies. AIDS is causing obstacles to trade, foreign investment and tourism. Health systems and social coping mechanisms already are overburdened. High rates of HIV infection among police and military personnel threaten internal security. Furthermore, the demobilization of military forces in Africa may exacerbate the epidemic when HIV-infected soldiers return home and spread the virus. This presentation will illustrate why African AIDS Programs must be expanded to mitigate the multisectoral impact of the epidemic while preserving its spread.

  10. ‘Do not eat those apples; they’ve been on the ground!’: polio epidemics and preventive measures, Sweden 1880s-1940s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axelsson, Per

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This article will address how Swedish scientists, physicians and public health officers tried to combat the polio epidemics in the pre-vaccine era. It shows that once polio was considered as an epidemic disease the preventive measures used were based on the hindrance of other infectious diseases. It also illustrates how epidemiological and laboratory studies to some degree affected the thoughts of how polio should be prevented, and that Swedish ideas and experiences differed from those put forward in the USA.

    Este artículo trata sobre cómo los científicos, médicos y funcionarios de la sanidad pública de Suecia intentaron combatir la epidemia de la polio en la era anterior a la vacuna y expone que en cuanto la polio fue considerada como una epidemia, las medidas preventivas que se aplicaron se basaban en las de otras enfermedades contagiosas. También ilustra en qué medida los estudios epidemiológicos y los análisis de laboratorio influyeron en la manera de prevenir la polio y también demuestra que las opiniones y experiencias en Suecia eran diferentes a las de los Estados Unidos.

  11. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  12. We are to do everything possible to prevent severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmolov, V.

    2011-01-01

    The fundamental approach to safety assurance at a nuclear power plant is the principle of defence-in-depth. It means two key aspects: prevention of accidents through the creation and maintenance of engineering barriers, as well as mitigation of the consequences of accident. After Fukushima-1 accident re-evaluation was carried out of the effectiveness the defence-in-depth measures at Russian nuclear power plants, particularly in view of the very low-probability external events. The results of this evaluation demonstrated that all plants are fully compliant with the requirements of the current Russian safety standards [ru

  13. Multi-Sector Participation In The National Response To Prevent And Address The Hiv/Aids Epidemic In The Republic Of Cuba, 2007-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isora Ramos Valle

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of a strong national response involving multiple sectors—including civil society—is an essential aspect of the social management of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The goals of this response are to control the epidemic and improve the quality of life for people living with HIV/AIDS; this includes combating stigma and discrimination, as well as ensuring due compliance with the law. Cuba has a national program to prevent and control HIV/AIDS. Since 2003 Cuba’s national program has received material and financial support from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Program evaluation is carried out by an independent team at ENSAP (National School of Public Health. This paper reports on results of one part of that evaluation: an assessment of the agencies and sectors who made up the organized social and national response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The evaluation primarily used qualitative analyses of the activities and tasks proposed by sectors in their 2006-2008 work plans. Visits were made to the provinces of Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, and Holguín. Qualitative techniques included in-depth interviews, semi-structured interviews, observation, and review of documentary evidence of all kinds (videos, reports, minutes, protocols, results of social research, and radio broadcast messages and varied depending on the particular features of each sector. We noted improvements in multi-sector participation in the prevention and response to the national HIV/AIDS epidemic. Conscious of their role, sectors generally carried out their programmed activities and had improved their organization, planning, and systematization; integration among the sectors was also better. These local initiatives provided evidence of a multi-sector response characterized by autonomy, emotional involvement, and an identification with the goals of the project; this went beyond simply meeting targets. Cross-sector work showed a marked increase and a

  14. Dengue-specific serotype related to clinical severity during the 2012/2013 epidemic in centre of Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Benigno A M; Guilarde, Adriana O; Argolo, Angela F L T; Tassara, Marianna Peres; da Silveira, Lucimeire A; Junqueira, Isabela C; Turchi, Marília D; Féres, Valéria C R; Martelli, Celina M T

    2017-08-02

    Please see Additional file 1 for translations of the abstract into the five official working languages of the United Nations. Currently, in Brazil, there is a co-circulation of the four dengue (DENV-1 to DENV-4) serotypes. This study aimed to assess whether different serotypes and antibody response patterns were associated with the severity of the disease during a dengue outbreak, which occurred in 2012/2013 in centre of Brazil. We conducted a prospective study with 452 patients with laboratory confirmed dengue in central Brazil, from January 2012 to July 2013. The clinical outcome was the severity of cases: dengue, dengue with warning signs, and severe dengue. The patients were evaluated at three different moments. Blood sampling for laboratory testing and confirmatory tests for dengue infection were performed. We performed a multinomial analysis considering the three categories of the dependent variable, as outlined above. The odds ratios (ORs) were calculated. A multinomial logistic regression model was applied for variables with a P-value Brazil. Our findings contribute to the understanding of clinical differences and immune status related to the serotypes DENV-1 and DENV-4 in central of Brazil.

  15. Early Prevention of Severe Neurodevelopmental Behavior Disorders: An Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Stephen R.; Courtemanche, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    There is a very substantial literature over the past 50 years on the advantages of early detection and intervention on the cognitive, communicative, and social-emotional development of infants and toddlers at risk for developmental delay due to premature birth or social disadvantage. Most of these studies excluded children with severe delays or…

  16. Síndrome agudo respiratorio severo: un panorama mundial de la epidemia Severe acute respiratory syndrome: a global view of the epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Franco-Paredes

    2003-06-01

    despite extensive diagnostic workups. Most of these reports pointed out that the outbreak started in Southern China, specifically in the Guandong Province. The initial outbreak in South East Asia has already spread to other Regions in Asia, Europe, North and South America, and South Africa. Many of these cases can be linked through chains of transmission to an index case from the Guandong Province who visited Hong Kong. Although the exact mode of transmission has not been clearly established, the etiology of this syndrome has already been identified. A novel Coronavirus has been identified by electron microscopy and molecular assays in multiple laboratories from respiratory specimens throughout the world. The syndrome has been defined as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome by WHO, and is characterized by an incubation period between 1 and 10 days (average 5 days and by a febrile phase that usually lasts approximately 3 days. During the respiratory phase that begins around day 3, patients start developing a dry cough, shortness of breath and hypoxemia. Mechanical ventilatory support is required in about 10 to 40% of cases and the case-fatality rate ranges between 3 and 16%. The laboratory findings in SARS cases include leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, and a rise in transaminases and lactic dehydrogenase levels. Treatment of SARS includes supportive measures and the empiric use of ribavirin. Respiratory isolation, use of respiratory masks, and compulsory hand hygiene constitute the principal preventive measures. The confirmation of a case can be performed at reference laboratories by serologic and molecular assays. From the onset of this epidemic Mexico established a surveillance system as well as clinical guidelines and recommendations for the identification, prevention of secondary spread, and medical management of suspicious and probable cases by health care personnel.

  17. [PREVENTION AND CORRECTION OF PULMONARY COMPLICATIONS FOR SEVERE ACUTE PANCREATITIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorkiv, M B

    2015-06-01

    Increased of proinflammatory cytokines levels, including interleukin-8 (IL-8) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) on severe acute pancreatitis causes vasodilatation, increased permeability of the wall, accumulation of fluid in lung tissue and pleural sinuses. Transudate from acute parapancreatyc clusters of hot liquid and abdomen falls into the chest cavity through microscopic defects in the diaphragm due to the formation of pathological pleural-peritoneal connections or the relevant pressure gradient between the abdominal and pleural cavities. Remediation and removal of acute parapancreatyc clusters combined with the use of a multicomponent drug infusion therapy Cytoflavin provide a reduction in the frequency of pulmonary complications of acute pancreatitis from 48.3 to 31.0%. Use of the drug Cytoflavin reduces the severity of endogenous intoxication and mortality from acute lung injury from 12.9 to 6.1%.

  18. Ethical, legal and societal considerations on Zika virus epidemics complications in scaling-up prevention and control strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambo, Ernest; Madjou, Ghislaine; Khayeka-Wandabwa, Christopher; Olalubi, Oluwasogo A; Chengho, Chryseis F; Khater, Emad I M

    2017-08-25

    Much of the fear and uncertainty around Zika epidemics stem from potential association between Zika virus (ZIKV) complications on infected pregnant women and risk of their babies being born with microcephaly and other neurological abnormalities. However, much remains unknown about its mode of transmission, diagnosis and long-term pathogenesis. Worries of these unknowns necessitate the need for effective and efficient psychosocial programs and medical-legal strategies to alleviate and mitigate ZIKV related burdens. In this light, local and global efforts in maintaining fundamental health principles of moral, medical and legal decision-making policies, and interventions to preserve and promote individual and collectiveHuman Rights, autonomy, protection of the most vulnerable, equity, dignity, integrity and beneficence that should not be confused and relegated by compassionate humanitarian assistance and support. This paper explores the potential medical and ethical-legal implications of ZIKV epidemics emergency response packages and strategies alongside optimizing reproductive and mental health policies, programs and best practice measures. Further long-term cross-borders operational research is required in elucidating Zika-related population-based epidemiology, ethical-medical and societal implications in guiding evidence-based local and global ZIKV maternal-child health complications related approaches and interventions. Core programs and interventions including future Zika safe and effective vaccines for global Zika immunization program in most vulnerable and affected countries and worldwide should be prioritized.

  19. Severe accident prevention and mitigation: A utility perspective - EDF approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidard, M.

    1998-01-01

    Current plans have excellent safety records and are cost competitive. For future plants, excellence in safety will remain a prerequisite, as well as increased cost competitiveness. When contemplating solutions to Severe Accident challenges, cost effectiveness is essential in the decision making process. This cost effectiveness must be understood not only in terms of capital cost, but also of Operation and Maintenance costs as well as absence of additional risks to plant operators. Examples are given to illustrate the recommended approach

  20. LFR core design for prevention & mitigation of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grasso, Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    Conclusions: • Aiming at fully complying Gen-IV safety requirements – even in case of Fukushima-like events –, prevention and mitigation strategies must be stressed in FR design. • The safety of Lead-cooled Fast Reactors can rely on intrinsic features due to the coolant, such as: • the practical impossibility of Lead boiling, hence the unreliability of core (only) voiding for wide safety margins, and the retention of corium; • the high density of lead, for the buoyancy of Control Rods (allowing their safe positioning below the core), and the dispersion of molten core up to the setting up of a “cold melting pot”. • the possibility to adopt wide coolant channels for encouraging natural circulation, without affecting the hardness of the neutron spectrum; • the hard neutron spectrum allows the adiabatic operation of LFRs (which implies minimal criticality swings even through long cycles) with small amounts of Mas (hence with a negligible detriment to the safety features); • an effective reduction of the coolant density effect simply through the shortening of the active height

  1. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  2. CLINICAL AND LABORATORY ANALYSIS OF LETHAL CASES OF SEVERE INFLUENZA A(H1N1 PDM 2009 DURING THE EPIDEMIC 2015/2016 IN ST. PETERSBURG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Voloshсhuk

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of our study was to investigate the characteristics of severe form of influenza A (H1N1 pdm 2009 with a fatal outcome, given the comorbidities. Materials and methods. Medical histories of 105 people who died in hospitals of St. Petersburg for the period of the epidemic of 2015/16 served as material for analysis.The lethality caused by the pandemic virus type A/ H1N1 / 2009 pdm was higher in males. Most of the patients had concomitant chronic diseases in the anamnesis. Obesity was observed in 44.8% (47/105 of patients, diabetes mellitus — 28.5% (30/105, isolated heart disease — 19.0% (20/ 105, combined pathology — 48.6% (51/105. In the first biochemical analysis of blood, creatine phosphokinase, lactate dehydrogenase were increased, total protein and prothrombin consumption index were reduced. The patient's death occurred after 5 days of illness in 88.6% cases, in 11.4% — up to 5 days of illness (inclusive. The analysis of fatal cases up to 5 days of a disease and death from complications (2—4 week didn't find significant differences in the character and frequency of comorbidity. Specific antiviral therapy has been assigned to all patients, but 48 hours later.Bilateral subtotal viral and bacterial pneumonia was identified on the section, in the majority of cases, in 70.5% with hemorrhagic component. 30% patients had cerebral oedema, 41% patients had severe toxic parenchymatouse degeneration of miocardium, liver and kidneys. The pathology of the cardiovascular system, diabetes and obesity worsen the prognosis of the disease. Increased creatine phosphokinase, lactate dehydrogenase, and reduced total protein and prothrombin consumption index can be considered as markers of severe influenza. The ineffectiveness of antiviral therapy due to its late appointment, thus timely initiation of etiotropic treatment is very impotent. 

  3. Estimating the impact of state budget cuts and redirection of prevention resources on the HIV epidemic in 59 California local health departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Feng; Lasry, Arielle; Sansom, Stephanie L; Wolitski, Richard J

    2013-01-01

    In the wake of a national economic downturn, the state of California, in 2009-2010, implemented budget cuts that eliminated state funding of HIV prevention and testing. To mitigate the effect of these cuts remaining federal funds were redirected. This analysis estimates the impact of these budget cuts and reallocation of resources on HIV transmission and associated HIV treatment costs. We estimated the effect of the budget cuts and reallocation for California county health departments (excluding Los Angeles and San Francisco) on the number of individuals living with or at-risk for HIV who received HIV prevention services. We used a Bernoulli model to estimate the number of new infections that would occur each year as a result of the changes, and assigned lifetime treatment costs to those new infections. We explored the effect of redirecting federal funds to more cost-effective programs, as well as the potential effect of allocating funds proportionately by transmission category. We estimated that cutting HIV prevention resulted in 55 new infections that were associated with $20 million in lifetime treatment costs. The redirection of federal funds to more cost-effective programs averted 15 HIV infections. If HIV prevention funding were allocated proportionately to transmission categories, we estimated that HIV infections could be reduced below the number that occurred annually before the state budget cuts. Reducing funding for HIV prevention may result in short-term savings at the expense of additional HIV infections and increased HIV treatment costs. Existing HIV prevention funds would likely have a greater impact on the epidemic if they were allocated to the more cost-effective programs and the populations most likely to acquire and transmit the infection.

  4. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7 in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strutton David R

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1 outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. Methods A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7 on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100 and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100. Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd protection of non-vaccinated persons. Results The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd protection in the unvaccinated. Conclusions PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  5. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Jaime L; McGarry, Lisa J; Klugman, Keith P; Strutton, David R; Gilmore, Kristen E; Weinstein, Milton C

    2010-01-21

    Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1) outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100) and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100). Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd) protection of non-vaccinated persons. The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd) protection in the unvaccinated. PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  6. Diabetes: Good Diabetes Management and Regular Foot Care Help Prevent Severe Foot Sores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amputation and diabetes: How to protect your feet Good diabetes management and regular foot care help prevent severe foot sores that ... and may require amputation. By Mayo Clinic Staff Diabetes complications can include nerve damage and poor blood ...

  7. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  8. Gender and sexuality: emerging perspectives from the heterosexual epidemic in South Africa and implications for HIV risk and prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    sanctions or foregoing these rewards and thus are most vulnerable to their men folk. We argue that the goals of HIV prevention and optimizing of care can best be achieved through change in gender identities, rather than through a focus on individual sexual behaviours. PMID:20181124

  9. System 80+TM PRA insights on severe accident prevention and mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finnicum, D.J.; Jacob, M.C.; Schneider, R.E.; Weston, R.A.

    2004-01-01

    The System 80 + design is ABB-CE's standardized evolutionary Advanced Light Water Reactor (ALWR) design. It incorporates design enhancements based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) insights, guidance from the ALWR Utility Requirements Document (URD), and US NRC's Severe Accident Policy. Major severe accident prevention and mitigation design features of the System 80 + design are described. The results of the System 80 + PRA are presented and the insights gained from the PRA sensitivity analyses are discussed. ABB-CE considered defense-in-depth for accident prevention and mitigation early in the design process and used robust design features to ensure that the System 80 + design achieved a low core damage frequency, low containment conditional failure probability, and excellent deterministic containment performance under severe accident conditions and to ensure that the risk was properly allocated among design features and between prevention and mitigation. (author)

  10. Impact and prevention of severe exacerbations of COPD: a review of the evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpin, David MG; Miravitlles, Marc; Metzdorf, Norbert; Celli, Bartolomé

    2017-01-01

    Severe exacerbations of COPD, ie, those leading to hospitalization, have profound clinical implications for patients and significant economic consequences for society. The prevalence and burden of severe COPD exacerbations remain high, despite recognition of the importance of exacerbation prevention and the availability of new treatment options. Severe COPD exacerbations are associated with high mortality, have negative impact on quality of life, are linked to cardiovascular complications, and are a significant burden on the health-care system. This review identified risk factors that contribute to the development of severe exacerbations, treatment options (bronchodilators, antibiotics, corticosteroids [CSs], oxygen therapy, and ventilator support) to manage severe exacerbations, and strategies to prevent readmission to hospital. Risk factors that are amenable to change have been highlighted. A number of bronchodilators have demonstrated successful reduction in risk of severe exacerbations, including long-acting muscarinic antagonist or long-acting β2-agonist mono- or combination therapies, in addition to vaccination, mucolytic and antibiotic therapy, and nonpharmacological interventions, such as pulmonary rehabilitation. Recognition of the importance of severe exacerbations is an essential step in improving outcomes for patients with COPD. Evidence-based approaches to prevent and manage severe exacerbations should be implemented as part of targeted strategies for disease management. PMID:29062228

  11. Impact and prevention of severe exacerbations of COPD: a review of the evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halpin DMG

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available David MG Halpin,1 Marc Miravitlles,2 Norbert Metzdorf,3 Bartolomé Celli4 1Department of Respiratory Medicine, Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital, Exeter, UK; 2Pneumology Department, Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron, CIBER de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES, Barcelona, Spain; 3Respiratory Medicine, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmBH & Co KG, Ingelheim am Rhein, Germany; 4Pulmonary Division, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA Abstract: Severe exacerbations of COPD, ie, those leading to hospitalization, have profound clinical implications for patients and significant economic consequences for society. The prevalence and burden of severe COPD exacerbations remain high, despite recognition of the importance of exacerbation prevention and the availability of new treatment options. Severe COPD exacerbations are associated with high mortality, have negative impact on quality of life, are linked to cardiovascular complications, and are a significant burden on the health-care system. This review identified risk factors that contribute to the development of severe exacerbations, treatment options (bronchodilators, antibiotics, corticosteroids [CSs], oxygen therapy, and ventilator support to manage severe exacerbations, and strategies to prevent readmission to hospital. Risk factors that are amenable to change have been highlighted. A number of bronchodilators have demonstrated successful reduction in risk of severe exacerbations, including long-acting muscarinic antagonist or long-acting β2-agonist mono- or combination therapies, in addition to vaccination, mucolytic and antibiotic therapy, and nonpharmacological interventions, such as pulmonary rehabilitation. Recognition of the importance of severe exacerbations is an essential step in improving outcomes for patients with COPD. Evidence-based approaches to prevent and manage severe exacerbations should be implemented as part of targeted strategies for disease management. Keywords

  12. Las epidemias de cólera en Córdoba a través del periodismo: la oferta de productos preservativos y curativos durante la epidemia de 1867-1868 Cholera epidemics in Córdoba as seen through the press: the supply of preventive and curative products during the 1867-68 epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrián Carbonetti

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available La enfermedad es un momento de crisis tanto individual como social. La cercanía de la muerte debido a la dolencia genera en las sociedades estrategias para evadirla o curarla. Las epidemias y especialmente las de cólera tuvieron una impronta muy fuerte en la sociedad argentina y especialmente en la cordobesa ya que la primera de ellas fue devastadora en términos demográficos y sociales. En este artículo pretendemos analizar el ofrecimiento de productos, que se publicaba en la prensa escrita en la primer epidemia del año 1867/68. Partimos de la hipótesis de que los productos que se ofrecían desarrollaban un comercio de carácter suntuario que no eran objeto de transacciones comerciales habitualmente por la población en momentos no epidémicos y que a su vez estaban dirigidos hacia los sectores de mayor nivel adquisitivo.Throughout human history, disease has always represented a moment of crisis for individuals and societies. When death brought by disease hangs heavy over societies, they are led to develop strategies to prevent and cure it. Epidemics, especially cholera epidemics, have had a strong impact on Argentine society and especially on Córdoba residents, because the first cholera outbreak was demographically and socially highly devastating. In this article we analyze the supply of products advertised in the press (the only media available at the time during the first epidemic, which broke out in 1867-8. Our hypothesis is that the products available, which we believe were consumed by some groups in society, led to a sumptuary trade that was not common among the population when there were no epidemics. At times of epidemics, these products were directed towards more affluent groups. We also believe that the supply of such products changed as their trade increased.

  13. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  14. Predictors of Bisexual Behaviour among MSM Attending Intervention Sites May Help in Prevention Interventions for This Bridge to the Heterosexual Epidemic in India: Data from HIV Sentinel Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godbole, Sheela; Sane, Suvarna; Kamble, Pranil; Raj, Yujwal; Dulhani, Nisha; Venkatesh, Srinivasan; Reddy, D. C. S.; Chavan, Laxmikant; Bhattacharya, Madhulekha; Bindoria, Suchitra; Kadam, Dilip; Thakur, Savita; Narwani, Prakash; Pereira, Elmira; Paranjape, Ramesh; Risbud, Arun

    2014-01-01

    Background Indian cultural tradition demanding marriage, many MSM howsoever they self-identify are likely to be married or have sex with women. To consolidate India's HIV prevention gains, it is important to understand and address the interaction between the MSM and heterosexual epidemics in India and create specific interventions for bisexual MSM. The challenge is to identify and intervene this hard to reach population. Data from HIV Sentinel Surveillance 2011 among MSM in four Indian states were analyzed to assess predictors and prevalence of bisexual behaviour in MSM. Methods Between March-May 2011, 4682 men (15–49 years) who had anal/oral sex with a male partner in the past month, attending intervention sites and consenting for an un-linked anonymous survey answered an 11- item questionnaire and provided blood for HIV test by finger stick at 19 designated surveillance sites. Results Of 4682 MSM tested overall, 5% were illiterate, 51% reported only receptive anal intercourse, 21% only penetrative and 28% both. 36% MSM had ever received money for sex. Overall 6.8% were HIV infected. 44% MSM were bisexual in the last six months. On multivariate analysis, ‘being bisexual’ was found to be independently associated with ‘older age’: 26–30 years [AOR = 3.1, 95% CI(2.7, 3.7)], >30 years [AOR = 6.5, 95% CI(5.5, 7.7)]; ‘reporting penetrative behaviour alone’ with other men [AOR = 5.8, 95% CI(4.8, 7.0), pbehaviour’ [AOR = 2.7, 95% CI(2.3, 3.1) pbehaviour with other men, could help in reaching this population. PMID:25211511

  15. Prebiotics and probiotics: the prevention and reduction in severity of atopic dermatitis in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foolad, N; Armstrong, A W

    2014-06-01

    The purpose of this review was to identify whether supplementation with prebiotics and/or probiotics help prevent the development or reduce the severity of atopic dermatitis in children less than three years of age. Since 1997, immunostimulatory supplements, such as prebiotics and probiotics, have been investigated. Various supplementations include probiotics (single strain or mix), probiotics with formula, probiotics mix with prebiotics, and prebiotics. In this narrative review, we examined 13 key articles on prebiotics and/or probiotics, and their effects on infant atopic dermatitis. Among the selected studies, a total of 3,023 participants received supplements or placebo. Eight out of the 13 (61.5%) studies reported a significant effect on the prevention of atopic dermatitis after supplementation with probiotics and/or prebiotics. Five out of the 13 (38.5%) studies indicated significant reduction in the severity of atopic dermatitis after supplementation. Based on the available studies, supplementation with certain probiotics (Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG) appears to be an effective approach for the prevention and reduction in severity of atopic dermatitis. A mix of specific probiotic strains prevented atopic dermatitis among infants. Based on studies with prebiotics, there was a long-term reduction in the incidence of atopic dermatitis. Supplementation with prebiotics and probiotics appears useful for the reduction in the severity of atopic dermatitis. Additional interventional studies exploring prebiotics and probiotics are imperative before recommendations can be made.

  16. Newborn Bilirubin Screening for Preventing Severe Hyperbilirubinemia and Bilirubin Encephalopathy: A Rapid Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Kalpana; Locke, Tiffany; Biringer, Anne; Booth, Allyson; Darling, Elizabeth K; Dougan, Shelley; Harrison, Jane; Hill, Stephen; Johnson, Ana; Makin, Susan; Potter, Beth; Lacaze-Masmonteil, Thierry; Little, Julian

    2017-01-01

    According to the 2004 American Academy of Pediatrics guideline on the management of hyperbilirubinemia, every newborn should be assessed for the risk of developing severe hyperbilirubinemia with the help of predischarge total serum bilirubin or transcutaneous bilirubin measurements and/or assessments of clinical risk factors. The aim of this rapid review is 1) to review the evidence for 1) predicting and preventing severe hyperbilirubinemia and bilirubin encephalopathy, 2) determining the efficacy of home/community treatments (home phototherapy) in the prevention of severe hyperbilirubinemia, and 3) non-invasive/transcutaneous methods for estimating serum bilirubin level. In this rapid review, studies were identified through the Medline database. The main outcomes of interest were severe hyperbilirubinemia and encephalopathy. A subset of articles was double screened and all articles were critically appraised using the SIGN and AMSTAR checklists. This review investigated if systems approach is likely to reduce the occurrence of severe hyperbilirubinemia. Fifty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Included studies assessed the association between bilirubin measurement early in neonatal life and the subsequent development of severe hyperbilirubinemia and chronic bilirubin encephalopathy/kernicterus. It was observed that, highest priority should be given to (i) universal bilirubin screening programs; (ii) implementation of community and midwife practice; (iii) outreach to communities for education of prospective parents; and (iv) development of clinical pathways to monitor, evaluate and track infants with severe hyperbilirubinemia. We found substantial observational evidence that severe hyperbilirubinemia can be accurately predicted and prevented through universal bilirubin screening. So far, there is no evidence of any harm. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  17. [School shootings in Germany: current trends in the prevention of severe, targeted violence in German schools].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondü, Rebecca; Scheithauer, Herbert

    2009-01-01

    In March and September 2009 the school shootings in Winnenden and Ansbach once again demonstrated the need for preventive approaches in order to prevent further offences in Germany. Due to the low frequency of such offences and the low specificity of relevant risk factors known so far, prediction and prevention seems difficult though. None the less, several preventive approaches are currently discussed. The present article highlights these approaches and their specific advantages and disadvantages. As school shootings are multicausally determined, approaches focussing only on single aspects (i.e. prohibiting violent computer games or further strengthening gun laws) do not meet requirements. Other measures such as installing technical safety devices or optimizing actions of police and school attendants are supposed to reduce harm in case of emergency. Instead, scientifically founded and promising preventive approaches focus on secondary prevention and for this purpose employ the threat assessment approach, which is widespread within the USA. In this framework, responsible occupational groups such as teachers, school psychologists and police officers are to be trained in identifying students' warning signs, judging danger of these students for self and others in a systematic process and initiating suitable interventions.

  18. Neuromuscular exercises prevent severe knee injury in adolescent team handball players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achenbach, Leonard; Krutsch, Volker; Weber, Johannes; Nerlich, Michael; Luig, Patrick; Loose, Oliver; Angele, Peter; Krutsch, Werner

    2017-10-20

    Team handball is associated with a high risk of severe knee injury that needs to be reduced, particularly at the youth level. The purpose of this study was to show how an injury-prevention programme effectively reduces severe knee injury in adolescent team handball players. Of 23 adolescent handball teams of both sexes, 13 were randomly allocated into the intervention group (168 players) and 10 into the control group (111 players). Players of the intervention group regularly participated in an injury-prevention programme for one season. Handball exposure and sustained injuries were documented for both groups on a monthly basis. The primary outcome parameter of the injury-prevention programme was the incidence of severe knee injury. Of the 279 included players, 68 (24%) sustained 82 injuries yielding an overall incidence of 1.85 injuries per 1000 h handball exposure (intervention group: 50 injuries/incidence: 1.90/1000 h; control group: 32 injuries/incidence: 1.78/1000 h). Knee injury was the second most frequent injury in adolescent team handball. The primary outcome parameter, severe knee injury occurred significantly more often in the control group [mean age (SD) 15.1 (1.0), injury incidence 0.33/1000 h] than in the intervention group [mean age (SD) 14.9 (0.9), injury incidence 0.04/1000 h]. The odds ratio was 0.11 (95% CI 0.01-0.90), p = 0.019. Other injuries to the lower extremities showed no significant difference between the two groups. Frequent neuromuscular exercises prevent severe knee injury in adolescent team handball players and should thus be included in the practical routine as well as in the education of team coaches.

  19. Preventing School Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulloda, Rudolfo Barcena

    2011-01-01

    School violence has mushroomed into a devastating epidemic and is deteriorating the basic foundation of education. In this article, the author will present several teaching strategies for preventing school violence from becoming an arduous enigma within the classroom and school environments, and focus on assessment and reflection in order to…

  20. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  1. Prevention of pressure ulcers in patients undergoing subacute rehabilitation after severe brain injury: An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachs, Marianne Brostrup; Wolffbrandt, Mia Moth; Poulsen, Ingrid

    2018-01-09

    To uncover efforts made by healthcare professionals to prevent pressure ulcers in patients with severe brain injury undergoing treatment at a subacute rehabilitation department. Pressure ulcers are a major burden for patients and also generate considerable healthcare costs. Pressure ulcers are, nevertheless, prevalent in both secondary care and primary care. In this qualitative study, we performed 24-hour observation on four patients undergoing rehabilitation for severe brain injury. An observation guide was developed inspired by the Braden Scale and Spradley's theory and methods. Observations were analysed using content analysis. Patricia Benner's aspects of clinical grasp were employed in the interpretation of the observations. One overarching theme was identified: "Professionalism expressed by preventing intervention, involving the patient, employing clinical grasp and professional pride." Seven subcategories were summed up into the following three categories: organisation of clinical practice, professional assessment and interactions with the patient. The healthcare professionals' actions to prevent pressure ulcers consisted of attaining the necessary knowledge about pressure ulcer care and performing the activities. However, our observations revealed one important additional aspect: a very distinct impression that the healthcare professionals were committed to learning about the patients' former life and actively used this knowledge in their planning and provision of daily patient care. We believe this commitment has a very positive effect on prevention of pressure ulcers. Professional knowledge about prevention of pressure ulcer is a necessary requisite, but is not sufficient to ensure effective treatment. To transfer knowledge into practice, we recommend that patients' rehabilitation days be planned in such a manner that activities, mobilisation and training are conducted throughout the day and evening. We also recommend that professional staff are

  2. Portable Filtered Air Suction System for Released Radioactive Gases Prevention under a Severe Accident of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu, Beom W.; Choi, Su Y.; Rim, Chun T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the portable filtered air suction system (PoFASS) for released radioactive gases prevention under a severe accident of NPP is proposed. This technology can prevent the release of the radioactive gases to the atmosphere and it can be more economical than FVCS because PoFASS can cover many NPPs with its high mobility. The conceptual design of PoFASS, which has the highest cost effectiveness and robustness to the environment condition such as wind velocity and precipitation, is suggested and the related previous research is introduced in this paper. The portable filtered air suction system (PoFASS) for released radioactive gases prevention can play a key role to mitigate the severe accident of NPP with its high cost effectiveness and robustness to the environment conditions. As further works, the detail design of PoFASS to fabricate a prototype for a demonstration will be proceeded. When released radioactive gases from the broken containment building in the severe accident of nuclear power plants (NPPs) such as the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents occur, there are no ways to prevent the released radioactive gases spreading in the air. In order to solve this problem, several European NPPs have adopted the filtered vented containment system (FVCS), which can avoid the containment failure through a pressure relief capability to protect the containment building against overpressure. However, the installation cost of FVCS for a NPP is more than $10 million and this system has not been widely welcomed by NPP operating companies due to its high cost

  3. [Cardiac and metabolic risk factors in severe mental disorders. Task of a prevention manager].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lederbogen, F; Schwarz, P; Häfner, S; Schweiger, U; Bohus, M; Deuschle, M

    2015-07-01

    People with severe mental disorders have a reduction in life expectancy of 13-30 % compared with the general population. This severe disadvantage is primarily due to an increased prevalence of cardiac and metabolic disorders, especially coronary heart disease (CHD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus and are the result of untoward health behavior characterized by smoking, low levels of physical activity and unhealthy dietary habits. Obesity, arterial hypertension and lipid disorders are also associated with this behavior and further increase the risk of CHD and type 2 diabetes. Thus, people with mental disorders constitute a population with a high risk of cardiovascular events. Appropriate measures for prevention and therapy are urgently indicated but rarely applied. This article presents new organizational structures to overcome this deficit with a prevention manager playing a central role in organizing and applying preventive and therapeutic care. Results from cardiology and diabetic medicine have shown the effectiveness of pooling this responsibility. The measure has the potential to reduce the increased mortality of people with severe mental disorders.

  4. Prevention of Severe Hypoglycemia-Induced Brain Damage and Cognitive Impairment with Verapamil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, David A; Michael, Trevin; Vieira de Abreu, Adriana; Agrawal, Rahul; Bortolato, Marco; Fisher, Simon J

    2018-05-03

    People with insulin-treated diabetes are uniquely at risk for severe hypoglycemia-induced brain damage. Since calcium influx may mediate brain damage, we tested the hypothesis that the calcium channel blocker, verapamil, would significantly reduce brain damage and cognitive impairment caused by severe hypoglycemia. Ten-week-old Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned to one of three treatments; 1) control hyperinsulinemic (200 mU.kg -1 min -1 ) euglycemic (80-100mg/dl) clamps (n=14), 2) hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemic (10-15mg/dl) clamps (n=16), or 3) hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemic clamps followed by a single treatment with verapamil (20mg/kg) (n=11). As compared to euglycemic controls, hypoglycemia markedly increased dead/dying neurons in the hippocampus and cortex, by 16-fold and 14-fold, respectively. Verapamil treatment strikingly decreased hypoglycemia-induced hippocampal and cortical damage, by 87% and 94%, respectively. Morris Water Maze probe trial results demonstrated that hypoglycemia induced a retention, but not encoding, memory deficit (noted by both abolished target quadrant preference and reduced target quadrant time). Verapamil treatment significantly rescued spatial memory as noted by restoration of target quadrant preference and target quadrant time. In summary, a one-time treatment with verapamil following severe hypoglycemia prevented neural damage and memory impairment caused by severe hypoglycemia. For people with insulin treated diabetes, verapamil may be a useful drug to prevent hypoglycemia-induced brain damage. © 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.

  5. Severe maternal morbidity due to sepsis: The burden and preventability of disease in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepine, Sam; Lawton, Beverley; Geller, Stacie; Abels, Peter; MacDonald, Evelyn J

    2018-02-20

    Sepsis is a life-threatening systemic condition that appears to be increasing in the obstetric population. Clinical detection can be difficult and may result in increased morbidity via delays in the continuum of patient care. To describe the burden of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) caused by sepsis in New Zealand and investigate the potential preventability. A multidisciplinary expert review panel was established to review cases of obstetric sepsis admitted to intensive care or high-dependency units over an 18 month span in New Zealand. Cases were then analysed for the characteristics of infection and their preventability. Fifty cases met the inclusion criteria, most commonly due to uterine, respiratory or kidney infection. Fifty per cent (25) of these cases were deemed potentially preventable, predominantly due to delays in diagnosis and treatment. A high index of suspicion, development of early recognition systems and multi-disciplinary training are recommended to decrease preventable cases of maternal sepsis. © 2018 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  6. Prevention of pressure ulcers in patients undergoing sub-acute rehabilitation after severe brain injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sachs, Marianne Brostrup; Wolffbrandt, Mia Moth; Poulsen, Ingrid

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to uncover efforts made by healthcare professionals to prevent pressure ulcers (PUs) in patients with severe brain injury undergoing treatment at a sub-acute rehabilitation department. BACKGROUND: PUs is a major burden for patients and also generate considerable...... healthcare costs. PUs are, nevertheless, prevalent in both secondary and primary care. DESIGN: In this qualitative study, we performed 24-hour observation on four patients undergoing rehabilitation for severe brain injury. An observation guide was developed inspired by the Braden Scale and Spradley's theory...... that patients' rehabilitation days be planned in such a manner that activities, mobilisation and training are conducted throughout the day and evening. We also recommend that professional staff are encouraged to seek information about the former life of patients with severe brain injury. This article...

  7. Effects of contact network structure on epidemic transmission trees: implications for data required to estimate network structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

    2018-01-30

    Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is key to developing effective interventions to control or prevent an epidemic. The structure of the network of contacts over which the disease spreads has been shown to have a strong influence on the outcome of the epidemic, but an open question remains as to whether it is possible to estimate contact network features from data collected in an epidemic. The approach taken in this paper is to examine the distributions of epidemic outcomes arising from epidemics on networks with particular structural features to assess whether that structure could be measured from epidemic data and what other constraints might be needed to make the problem identifiable. To this end, we vary the network size, mean degree, and transmissibility of the pathogen, as well as the network feature of interest: clustering, degree assortativity, or attribute-based preferential mixing. We record several standard measures of the size and spread of the epidemic, as well as measures that describe the shape of the transmission tree in order to ascertain whether there are detectable signals in the final data from the outbreak. The results suggest that there is potential to estimate contact network features from transmission trees or pure epidemic data, particularly for diseases with high transmissibility or for which the relevant contact network is of low mean degree. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Severe accident analysis to prevent high pressure scenarios in the EPR TM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarian, G.; Gandrille, P.; Gasperini, M.; Klein, R.

    2010-01-01

    The EPR TM has incorporated several design features in order to specifically address major severe accident safety issues. In particular, it was designed with the objective to transfer high pressure core melt scenarios into a low pressure scenario with high reliability so that a high pressure vessel failure can be practically eliminated. It is the key issue in the defense-in-depth approach, for a postulated severe accident with core melting, to prevent any risk of containment failure due to possible Direct Containment Heating or due to reactor vessel rocketing which results from vessel failure at high pressure. Temperature-induced steam generator tube rupture, which could lead to a radiological containment bypass, has also to be prevented. On the basis of the analysis of the main high pressure core melt scenarios which are calculated with the MAAP4.07 code which was developed to support the EPR TM, this paper explores the benefits of primary depressurization by dedicated valves on transient evolutions. It specifically addresses the thermal response of the structures by sensitivity studies involving the timing of valve actuation. It outlines that a grace period of at least one hour is available for a delayed valve actuation without inducing excessive loads and without increasing the risk of a temperature-induced steam generator tube rupture. (authors)

  9. Intersecting epidemics of HIV, HCV, and syphilis among soon-to-be released prisoners in Kyrgyzstan: Implications for prevention and treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azbel, Lyuba; Polonsky, Maxim; Wegman, Martin; Shumskaya, Natalya; Kurmanalieva, Ainura; Asanov, Akylbek; Wickersham, Jeffrey A; Dvoriak, Sergii; Altice, Frederick L

    2016-11-01

    Central Asia is afflicted with increasing HIV incidence, low antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and increasing AIDS mortality, driven primarily by people who inject drugs (PWID). Reliable data about HIV, other infectious diseases, and substance use disorders in prisoners in this region is lacking and could provide important insights into how to improve HIV prevention and treatment efforts in the region. A randomly sampled, nationwide biobehavioural health survey was conducted in 8 prisons in Kyrgyzstan among all soon-to-be-released prisoners; women were oversampled. Consented participants underwent computer-assisted, standardized behavioural health assessment surveys and testing for HIV, HCV, HBV, and syphilis. Prevalence and means were computed, and generalized linear modelling was conducted, with all analyses using weights to account for disproportionate sampling by strata. Among 381 prisoners who underwent consent procedures, 368 (96.6%) were enrolled in the study. Women were significantly older than men (40.6 vs. 36.5; p=0.004). Weighted prevalence (%), with confidence interval (CI), for each infection was high: HCV (49.7%; CI: 44.8-54.6%), syphilis (19.2%; CI: 15.1-23.5%), HIV (10.3%; CI: 6.9-13.8%), and HBV (6.2%; CI: 3.6-8.9%). Among the 31 people with HIV, 46.5% were aware of being HIV-infected. Men, compared to women, were significantly more likely to have injected drugs (38.3% vs.16.0%; p=0.001). Pre-incarceration and within-prison drug injection, primarily of opioids, was 35.4% and 30.8%, respectively. Independent correlates of HIV infection included lifetime drug injection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=38.75; p=0.001), mean number of years injecting (AOR=0.93; p=0.018), mean number of days experiencing drug problems (AOR=1.09; p=0.025), increasing duration of imprisonment (AOR=1.08; p=0.02 for each year) and having syphilis (AOR=3.51; p=0.003), while being female (AOR=3.06; p=0.004) and being a recidivist offender (AOR=2.67; p=0.008) were independently

  10. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceccato Pietro

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to

  11. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  12. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  13. Assessment of severe accident prevention and mitigation features: PWR, large dry containment design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, K.R.; Hsu, C.J.; Lehner, J.R.; Luckas, W.J.; Cho, N.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Pratt, W.T.; Eltawila, F.; Maly, J.A.

    1988-07-01

    Plant features and operator actions which have been found to be important in either preventing or mitigating severe accidents in PWRs with large dry containments have been identified. These features and actions were developed from insights derived from reviews of risk assessments performed specifically for the Zion plant and from assessments of other relevant studies. Accident sequences that dominate the core-damage frequency and those accident sequences that are of potentially high consequence were identified. Vulnerabilities of the large dry containment to severe accident containment loads were also identified. In addition, those features of a PWR with a large dry containment, which are important for preventing core damage and are available for mitigating fission-product release to the environment were identified. The report is issued to provide focus to the analyst examining an individual plant. The report calls attention to plant features and operator actions and provides a list of deterministic tributes for assessing those features and actions found to be helpful in reducing the overall risk for Zion and other PWRs with large dry containments. Thus, the guidance is offered as a resource in examining the subject plant to determine if the same, or similar, plant features and operator actions will be of value in reducing overall plant risk. This report is intended to serve solely as guidance

  14. Assessment of severe accident prevention and mitigation features: PWR, ice-condenser containment design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, C.J.; Perkins, K.R.; Luckas, W.J.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Cho, N.; Lehner, J.R.; Pratt, W.T.; Eltawila, F.; Maly, J.A.

    1988-07-01

    Plant features and operator actions which have been found to be important in either preventing and mitigating severe accidents in PWRs with ice-condenser containments have been identified. Thus features and actions were developed from insights derived from reviews of risk assessments performed specifically for the Sequoyah plant and from assessments of other relevant studies. Accident sequences that dominate the core-damage frequency and those accident sequences that are of potentially high consequence were identified. Vulnerabilities of the ice-condenser containment to sever accident containment loads were also identified. In addition, those features of a PWR with an ice-condenser containment, which are important for preventing core damage and are available for mitigating fission-product release to the environment were identified. This report is issued to provide focus to an analyst examining an individual plant. The report calls attention to plant features and operator actions and provides a list of deterministic attributes for assessing those features and actions found to be helpful in reducing the overall risk for Sequoyah and other PWRs with ice-condenser containments. Thus, the guidance is offered as a resource in examining the subject plant to determine if the same, or similar, plant features and operator actions will be of value in reducing overall plant risk. This report is intended to serve solely as guidance. 14 tabs

  15. Assessment of severe accident prevention and mitigation features: BWR, Mark II containment design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehner, J.R.; Hsu, C.J.; Eltawila, F.; Perkins, K.R.; Luckas, W.J.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Pratt, W.T.

    1988-07-01

    Plant features and operator actions, which have been found to be important in either preventing or mitigating severe accidents in BWRs with Mark II containments (BWR Mark II's) have been identified. These features and actions were developed from insights derived from reviews of in-depth risk assessments performed specifically for the Limerick and Shoreham plants and from other relevant studies. Accident sequences that dominate the core-damage frequency and those accident sequences that are of potentially high consequence were identified. Vulnerabilities of the BWR Mark II to severe-accident containment loads were also noted. In addition, those features of a BWR Mark II, which are important for preventing core damage and are available for mitigating fission-product release to the environment were also identified. This report is issued to provide focus to an analyst examining an individual plant. This report calls attention to plant features and operator actions and provides a list of deterministic attributes for assessing those features and actions found to be helpful in reducing the overall risk for Mark II plants. Thus, the guidance is offered as a resource in examining the subject plant to determine if the same, or similar, plant features and operator actions will be of value in reducing overall plant risk. This report is intended to serve solely as guidance

  16. Preventative and Curative Effects of Several Plant Derived Agents Against Powdery Mildew Disease of Okra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moustafa Hemdan Ahmed MOHARAM

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The preventative and curative effects of some plant derived agents based on plant extracts or essential oils were studied at different concentrations against Erysiphe cichoracearum DC. ex Merat, the causal pathogen of okra powdery mildew by the detached leaf-disk and potted plants bioassays. Through detached leaf-disk assay, the highest mean preventative effect (97.74% was recorded by neem seed oil followed by jojoba oil (89.82% and extract of Rynoutria sachalinensis (82.77%. Neem seed oil at 1% was the most effective agent followed by jojoba oil and extract of R. sachalinensis at 1.5% and 2%, respectively, where they suppressed E. cichoracearum completely. Potted plants assay revealed that neem seed oil, jojoba oil and extract of R. sachalinensis as well as the fungicide (active ingredient dinocap showed higher preventative efficacy at all leaf olds treated after 7 and 14 days of inoculation as compared with extracts of henna and garlic. Moreover, the preventative efficacy partly remained apparent after 14 days of inoculation at all leaf olds tested. In field trials through 2010 and 2011 growing seasons, when the first symptoms of powdery mildew appeared naturally, 1.5% jojoba oil, 2% extract of R. sachalinensis and 1% neem seed oil were sprayed individually twice on grown plants to evaluate their efficacy on controlling powdery mildew, growth and yield of okra. Resulted showed that neem seed oil was the most effective agent and highly decreased the disease severity to 29.92%, recorded the highly curative effect (68.15% and also improved plant growth and pods yield.

  17. Ocular firework trauma: a systematic review on incidence, severity, outcome and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisse, R P L; Bijlsma, W R; Stilma, J S

    2010-12-01

    To provide a systematic review on ocular firework trauma with emphasis on incidence and patient demographics, the extent of ocular trauma and visual function loss, and firework regulation effects on injury rates. A literature search was performed using predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Demographic characteristics of ocular firework casualties were obtained and incidence rates of sustained trauma and vision loss calculated. Twenty-six relevant articles were suitable for calculation of trauma incidence and patient demographics, of which 17 articles could be used for calculating trauma severity and vision loss. Victims were male (77%), young (82%) and often bystander (47%). Most of the trauma was mild and temporary. Penetrating eye trauma, globe contusions and burns accounted for 18.2%, with a 3.9% enucleation rate. Mean visual acuity was >10/20 in 56.8%, with severe vision loss (firework legislation show 87% less eye trauma (pfirework traumas show severe vision loss, mostly in young males. Bystanders are as frequently injured. Firework traumas are a preventable cause of severe ocular injury and blindness because countries using restrictive firework legislation have remarkable lower trauma incidence rates.

  18. Tertiary individual prevention improves mental health in patients with severe occupational hand eczema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, K; John, S M; Finkeldey, F; Boehm, D; Skudlik, C; Wulfhorst, B; Dwinger, C; Werfel, T; Diepgen, T L; Schmid-Ott, G

    2015-09-01

    Occupational hand eczema (OHE) is associated with impaired health-related quality of life (QoL) and mental distress. Interdisciplinary inpatient rehabilitation measures in the framework of tertiary individual prevention (TIP) offered by the German employers' liability insurance associations include dermatological treatment, education and psychological interventions. To investigate the effects of interdisciplinary inpatient rehabilitation in the framework of TIP on mental health in patients with severe OHE and the relationships between recovery of OHE and improvement of mental health and QoL. A total of 122 patients participated in the study. A test battery consisting of the German versions of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI), the Short Form Health Survey-36 (SF-36) and the Trier Inventory for the Assessment of Chronic Stress (TICS) was applied at the time of admission (T1) and 3 weeks after dismissal (T2). Severity of hand eczema was assessed with the Osnabrueck Hand Eczema Severity Index (OHSI). All parameters improved significantly from T1 to T2. A relationship was established between the improvement of QoL and recovery of OHE, while there was no such relationship between the improvement of mental distress and improvement of OHE. Nonresponders had significantly more cumulative days of sickness at T1. Our data underscore the importance of psychological interventions in addition to dermatological treatment in the framework of prevention measures for OHE. These measures should be applied at an early stage of OHE prior to the occurrence of sick leave. © 2015 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

  19. The combined benefits of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in preventing crashes and reducing crash severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Matteo; Kullgren, Anders; Tingvall, Claes

    2016-01-01

    Several studies have reported the benefits of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in reducing injury crashes, due to improved stability and braking performance. Both aspects may prevent crashes but may also reduce the crash severity when a collision occurs. However, it is still unknown to what extent the reductions in injury crashes with ABS may be due to a combination of these mechanisms. Swedish hospital and police reports (2003-2012) were used. The risk for permanent medical impairment (RPMI) was calculated, showing the risk of at least 1 or 10% permanent medical impairment. In total, 165 crashes involving ABS-equipped motorcycles were compared with 500 crashes with similar motorcycles without ABS. The analysis was performed in 3 steps. First, the reduction in emergency care visits with ABS was calculated using an induced exposure approach. Secondly, the injury mitigating effects of ABS were investigated. The mean RPMI 1+ and RPMI 10+ were analyzed for different crash types. The distributions of impairing injuries (PMI 1+) and severely impairing injuries (PMI 10+) were also analyzed. In the third step, the total reduction of PMI 1+ and PMI 10+ injured motorcyclists was calculated by combining the reductions found in the previous steps. An additional analysis of combined braking systems (CBS) together with ABS was also performed. The results showed that emergency care visits were reduced by 47% with ABS. In the second step, it was found that the mean RPMI 1+ and RPMI 10+ with ABS were 15 and 37% lower, respectively. Finally, the third step showed that the total reductions in terms of crash avoidance and mitigation of PMI 1+ and PMI 10+ injured motorcyclists with ABS were 67 and 55%, respectively. However, PMI 1+ and PMI 10+ leg injuries were not reduced by ABS to the same extent. Indications were found suggesting that the benefits of ABS together with CBS may be greater than ABS alone. This article indicated that motorcycle ABS reduced impairing injuries

  20. Effectiveness and cost effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in a portfolio of prevention programs for injection drug users in mixed HIV epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabina S Alistar

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis with oral antiretroviral treatment (oral PrEP for HIV-uninfected injection drug users (IDUs is potentially useful in controlling HIV epidemics with a significant injection drug use component. We estimated the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of strategies for using oral PrEP in various combinations with methadone maintenance treatment (MMT and antiretroviral treatment (ART in Ukraine, a representative case for mixed HIV epidemics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a dynamic compartmental model of the HIV epidemic in a population of non-IDUs, IDUs who inject opiates, and IDUs in MMT, adding an oral PrEP program (tenofovir/emtricitabine, 49% susceptibility reduction for uninfected IDUs. We analyzed intervention portfolios consisting of oral PrEP (25% or 50% of uninfected IDUs, MMT (25% of IDUs, and ART (80% of all eligible patients. We measured health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs, HIV prevalence, HIV infections averted, and incremental cost effectiveness. A combination of PrEP for 50% of IDUs and MMT lowered HIV prevalence the most in both IDUs and the general population. ART combined with MMT and PrEP (50% access averted the most infections (14,267. For a PrEP cost of $950, the most cost-effective strategy was MMT, at $520/QALY gained versus no intervention. The next most cost-effective strategy consisted of MMT and ART, costing $1,000/QALY gained compared to MMT alone. Further adding PrEP (25% access was also cost effective by World Health Organization standards, at $1,700/QALY gained. PrEP alone became as cost effective as MMT at a cost of $650, and cost saving at $370 or less. CONCLUSIONS: Oral PrEP for IDUs can be part of an effective and cost-effective strategy to control HIV in regions where injection drug use is a significant driver of the epidemic. Where budgets are limited, focusing on MMT and ART access should be the priority, unless PrEP has low cost.

  1. Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness of Oral Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis in a Portfolio of Prevention Programs for Injection Drug Users in Mixed HIV Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alistar, Sabina S.; Owens, Douglas K.; Brandeau, Margaret L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Pre-exposure prophylaxis with oral antiretroviral treatment (oral PrEP) for HIV-uninfected injection drug users (IDUs) is potentially useful in controlling HIV epidemics with a significant injection drug use component. We estimated the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of strategies for using oral PrEP in various combinations with methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Ukraine, a representative case for mixed HIV epidemics. Methods and Findings We developed a dynamic compartmental model of the HIV epidemic in a population of non-IDUs, IDUs who inject opiates, and IDUs in MMT, adding an oral PrEP program (tenofovir/emtricitabine, 49% susceptibility reduction) for uninfected IDUs. We analyzed intervention portfolios consisting of oral PrEP (25% or 50% of uninfected IDUs), MMT (25% of IDUs), and ART (80% of all eligible patients). We measured health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), HIV prevalence, HIV infections averted, and incremental cost effectiveness. A combination of PrEP for 50% of IDUs and MMT lowered HIV prevalence the most in both IDUs and the general population. ART combined with MMT and PrEP (50% access) averted the most infections (14,267). For a PrEP cost of $950, the most cost-effective strategy was MMT, at $520/QALY gained versus no intervention. The next most cost-effective strategy consisted of MMT and ART, costing $1,000/QALY gained compared to MMT alone. Further adding PrEP (25% access) was also cost effective by World Health Organization standards, at $1,700/QALY gained. PrEP alone became as cost effective as MMT at a cost of $650, and cost saving at $370 or less. Conclusions Oral PrEP for IDUs can be part of an effective and cost-effective strategy to control HIV in regions where injection drug use is a significant driver of the epidemic. Where budgets are limited, focusing on MMT and ART access should be the priority, unless PrEP has low cost. PMID:24489747

  2. CHEMICAL VERSUS SERUM TREATMENT OF EPIDEMIC MENINGITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flexner, S; Amoss, H L

    1916-05-01

    Claims of efficiency have been made at two widely separated periods for the chemical treatment of epidemic meningitis, in the first instance for lysol and in the second for protargol. The use of lysol was long since abandoned; the recommendation for protargol is based on a single series of cases, small in number. Because of the variable severity of epidemics of meningitis, small reliance can be placed on results of treatment limited in extent to small numbers of cases and to one locality. A more uniform and accurate measure of the value of a method of treatment is provided by animals infected experimentally with pathogenic cultures of meningococci. Young guinea pigs respond in a definite manner to intraperitoneal inoculation of virulent meningococci. Neither protargol nor lysol proved to have any curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. Monkeys respond in a characteristic manner to the inoculation of virulent cultures into the subarachnoid space. Protargol displayed no curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. On the contrary, both lysol and protargol exert antileukotactic and antiphagocytic effects, and are also potent protoplasmic poisons, and the leukocytes with which they come in contact are injured and made to degenerate. According to the extent to which these harmful properties are exerted, the chemicals promote the advance rather than restrain the progress of meningococcic infection. Recovery from meningococcic infection in man and animals is accomplished chiefly through the process of phagocytosis. The specific antiserum acts curatively by increasing the emigration of leukocytes, by promoting phagocytosis directly, and by agglutinating the meningococci, and also by neutralizing endotoxin. Any means which interfere with and reduce these essential processes retard or prevent recovery. Both lysol and protargol interfere with and diminish the emigration of leukocytes and the phagocytosis

  3. Vitamin D and calcium supplementation prevents severe falls in elderly community-dwelling women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Erik Roj; Mosekilde, Leif; Foldspang, Anders

    2005-01-01

    Background and aims: We evaluated the effect of two programs for the prevention of falls leading to acute hospital admission in a population of elderly community-dwelling Danish residents. Methods: This was a factorial, pragmatic, intervention study. We included 9605 community-dwelling city......, or no intervention. Results: The Calcium and Vitamin D program was followed by 50.3% and the Environmental and Health Program by 46.4%. According to a multivariate analysis including age, marital status and intervention program, female residents who followed the Calcium and Vitamin D Program had a 12% risk reduction...... in severe falls (RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.79-0.98; pfalls leading to acute hospitalization in community-dwelling elderly females in a northern European region known to be deficient in vitamin D....

  4. Immunoglobulins for preventing hepatitis A

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Jian Ping; Nikolova, Dimitrinka; Fei, Yutong

    2009-01-01

    Hepatitis A (infectious hepatitis) is a common epidemic disease. Immunoglobulins for passive immunisation are used as prevention.......Hepatitis A (infectious hepatitis) is a common epidemic disease. Immunoglobulins for passive immunisation are used as prevention....

  5. Severed cuff inflation tubing of endotracheal tube: A novel way to prevent cuff deflation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Amrut K; Chaudhuri, Souvik; Joseph, Tim T; Kamble, Deependra; Gotur, Gopal; Venkatesh, Sandeep

    2014-01-01

    A well-secured endotracheal tube (ETT) is essential for safe anesthesia. The ETT has to be fixed with the adhesive plasters or with tie along with adhesive plasters appropriately. It is specially required in patients having beard, in intensive care unit (ICU) patients or in oral surgeries. If re-adjustment of the ETT is necessary, we should be cautious while removal of the plasters and tie, as there may be damage to the cuff inflation system. This can be a rare cause of ETT cuff leak, thus making maintenance of adequate ventilation difficult and requiring re-intubation. In a difficult airway scenario, it can be extremely challenging to re-intubate again. We report an incidence where the ETT cuff tubing was severed while attempting to re-adjust and re-fix the ETT and the patient required re-intubation. Retrospectively, we thought of and describe a safe, reliable and novel technique to prevent cuff deflation of the severed inflation tube. The technique can also be used to monitor cuff pressure in such scenarios.

  6. IAEA Regional Workshop on Development and Validation of EOP/AMG for Effective Prevention/Mitigation of Severe Core Damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    Materials of the IAEA Regional Workshop contain 24 presented lectures. Authors deal with development and validation of emergency operating procedures as well as with accident management guidelines (EOP/AMG) for effective prevention and mitigation of severe core damage

  7. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus infection: Etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis and immunoprophylaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kwonil; Saif, Linda J

    2015-05-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), a member of the genera Alphacoronavirus in the family Coronaviridae, causes acute diarrhea/vomiting, dehydration and high mortality in seronegative neonatal piglets. For the last three decades, PEDV infection has resulted in significant economic losses in the European and Asian pig industries, but in 2013-2014 the disease was also reported in the US, Canada and Mexico. The PED epidemic in the US, from April 2013 to the present, has led to the loss of more than 10% of the US pig population. The disappearance and re-emergence of epidemic PED indicates that the virus is able to escape from current vaccination protocols, biosecurity and control systems. Endemic PED is a significant problem, which is exacerbated by the emergence (or potential importation) of multiple PEDV variants. Epidemic PEDV strains spread rapidly and cause a high number of pig deaths. These strains are highly enteropathogenic and acutely infect villous epithelial cells of the entire small and large intestines although the jejunum and ileum are the primary sites. PEDV infections cause acute, severe atrophic enteritis accompanied by viremia that leads to profound diarrhea and vomiting, followed by extensive dehydration, which is the major cause of death in nursing piglets. A comprehensive understanding of the pathogenic characteristics of epidemic or endemic PEDV strains is needed to prevent and control the disease in affected regions and to develop an effective vaccine. This review focuses on the etiology, epidemiology, disease mechanisms and pathogenesis as well as immunoprophylaxis against PEDV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. HIV/AIDS prevention, faith, and spirituality among black/African American and Latino communities in the United States: strengthening scientific faith-based efforts to shift the course of the epidemic and reduce HIV-related health disparities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Madeline Y; Parks, Carolyn P

    2013-06-01

    Black/African American and Latino communities are disproportionately affected by the domestic HIV/AIDS epidemic. Blacks/African Americans and Latinos are also more likely to report a formal, religious, or faith affiliation when compared with non-Hispanic whites. As such, faith leaders and their institutions have been identified in the National HIV/AIDS Strategy as having a vital role to serve in reducing: (1) HIV-related health disparities and (2) the number of new HIV infections by promoting non-judgmental support for persons living with and at risk for HIV/AIDS and by serving as trusted information resources for their congregants and communities. We describe faith doctrines and faith-science partnerships that are increasing in support of faith-based HIV prevention and service delivery activities and discuss the vital role of these faith-based efforts in highly affected black/African American and Latino communities.

  9. Determining critical groundwater level to prevent degraded peatland from severe peat fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, E. I.; Cochrane, M. A.; Vetrita, Y.; Graham, L.; Saharjo, B. H.

    2018-05-01

    Peat fires have been a severe recurrent problem for Indonesia, but droughts due to prolonged dry season aggravate burning conditions. To get a better understanding of this issue, we studied fire conditions in a portion of the ex-Mega Rice Project (MRP) area, Central Kalimantan. To examine fire season and hydrology factors affecting peat fires we analyzed daily TRMM data, Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies, and changing groundwater levels (GWL) from 300 dipwells. Our results quantify time-lags between the period of lowest precipitation and the lowest GWL; providing some ability to predict fire risk in advance of the lowest GWL. The rise of Nino 3.4 SST anomalies is significant risk factors for peat fire as they signify dry months which may yield large fire occurrences. GWL in 2011 was lower than in 2012, but fires were more frequent in 2012, indicating that low precipitation amounts in the wet season of 2011/2012 left the peat in a dry condition early in 2012. Most of the fires occurred in areas with GWL less than -30 cm, powerfully illustrating the importance of maintaining GWL at more than -10 cm, to prevent degraded peatlands from experiencing surface and deep peat fires.

  10. Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    is greater than that of the focus. Disease control treatments administered shortly after the initial outbreak within the focus may either prevent an epidemic from occurring or reduce its severity. PMID:25512677

  11. Prevention for those who have freedom of choice – or among the choice-disabled: confronting equity in the AIDS epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andersson Neil

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract With the exception of post-exposure prophylaxis for reported rape, no preventive strategy addresses the choice disabled – those who might like to benefit from AIDS prevention but who are unable to do so because they do not have the power to make and to act on prevention decisions. In southern African countries, where one in every three has been forced to have sex by the age of 18 years, a very large proportion of the population is choice disabled. This group is at higher risk of HIV infection and unable to respond to AIDS prevention programmes; they represent a reservoir of infection. Reduction of sexual violence would probably decrease HIV transmission directly, but also indirectly as more people can respond to existing AIDS prevention programmes.

  12. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  13. Obesity Prevention and Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Eleanor R; Olson, Alexandra; DiFazio, Marc; Cassidy, Omni

    2016-03-01

    Obesity is widespread, associated with several physical and psychosocial comorbidities, and is difficult to treat. Prevention of obesity across the lifespan is critical to improving the health of individuals and society. Screening and prevention efforts in primary care are an important step in addressing the obesity epidemic. Each period of human development is associated with unique risks, challenges, and opportunities for prevention and intervention. Screening tools for overweight/obesity, although imperfect, are quick and easy to administer. Screening should be conducted at every primary care visit and tracked longitudinally. Screening tools and cutoffs for overweight and obesity vary by age group. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  15. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  16. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  17. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  18. Behavioral Responses to Epidemics in an Online Experiment: Using Virtual Diseases to Study Human Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Frederick; Griffith, Amanda; Cottrell, Allin; Wong, Yue-Ling

    2013-01-01

    We report the results of a study we conducted using a simple multiplayer online game that simulates the spread of an infectious disease through a population composed of the players. We use our virtual epidemics game to examine how people respond to epidemics. The analysis shows that people's behavior is responsive to the cost of self-protection, the reported prevalence of disease, and their experiences earlier in the epidemic. Specifically, decreasing the cost of self-protection increases the rate of safe behavior. Higher reported prevalence also raises the likelihood that individuals would engage in self-protection, where the magnitude of this effect depends on how much time has elapsed in the epidemic. Individuals' experiences in terms of how often an infection was acquired when they did not engage in self-protection are another factor that determines whether they will invest in preventive measures later on. All else being equal, individuals who were infected at a higher rate are more likely to engage in self-protective behavior compared to those with a lower rate of infection. Lastly, fixing everything else, people's willingness to engage in safe behavior waxes or wanes over time, depending on the severity of an epidemic: when prevalence is high, people are more likely to adopt self-protective measures as time goes by; when prevalence is low, a ‘self-protection fatigue’ effect sets in whereby individuals are less willing to engage in safe behavior over time. PMID:23326360

  19. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  20. History of the HIV epidemic and response in Swaziland

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    that self-stigma, multiple concurrent partnerships and short-term relationships, decision on condom use and ... This prevents MSM from seeking health services. To .... 90-90-90: An ambitious treatment target to help end the AIDS epidemic.

  1. [The role of primary care professionals in preventive activitites during epidemics. Focus group assessment of the management of flu pandemic in 2009/2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajnal, Ferenc; Busa, Csilla; Papp, Renáta; Balogh, Sándor

    2017-04-01

    The experiences gained during the H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009/2010 could serve for a better planning and management of later outbreaks. The EU-sponsored TELL ME project aimed to provide evidence and develop models for improved risk communication during infectious disease crisis. Among its objectives was to develop original communication strategies regarding appropriate messages related to preventative behavior and advice based on uncertainties also addressing vaccine-resistant groups. Focus groups involving family physicians (FPs) were called upon for assessing the main issues during the H1N1 pandemic, the possibilities for improving the preventative process and outcomes. The study demonstrated the key-role of family doctors during outbreaks; patients put their trust in their elected FP, he or she representing a personal example of health behavior. The evidence based information about effectiveness and safety of vaccines are needed in communication towards health professionals. Involvement of health care professionals in the communication provides validity, the communication routine of opinion leaders meant to be used for such purpose. The main media message should be: "For prevention go to see your family doctor". Orv. Hetil., 2017, 158(14), 523-532.

  2. Preventing Schizophrenia and Severe Mental Illness: A Grand Challenge for Social Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVylder, Jordan E.

    2016-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a leading cause of disability and health expenditure worldwide and is associated with homelessness, substance use, familial and social isolation, unemployment, involvement with the criminal justice system, stigma, and excess mortality. Prevention may be feasible through intervention with help-seeking "clinical high-risk"…

  3. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  4. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  5. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  6. The epidemiology of HIV among young people in sub-Saharan Africa: know your local epidemic and its implications for prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napierala Mavedzenge, Sue; Olson, Rick; Doyle, Aoife M; Changalucha, John; Ross, David A

    2011-12-01

    Broad patterns of HIV epidemiology are frequently used to design generic HIV programs in sub-Saharan Africa. We reviewed the epidemiology of HIV among young people in sub-Saharan Africa, and explored the unique dynamics of infection in its different regions. In 2009, HIV prevalence among youth in sub-Saharan Africa was an estimated 1.4% in males and 3.4% in females, but these values mask wide variation at regional and national levels. Within countries there are further major differences in HIV prevalence, such as by sex, urban/rural location, economic status, education, or ethnic group. Within this highly nuanced context, HIV prevention programs targeting youth must consider both where new infections are occurring and where they are coming from. Given the epidemiology, one-size-fits-all HIV prevention programs are usually inappropriate at regional and national levels. Consideration of local context and risk associated with life transitions, such as leaving school or getting married, is imperative to successful programming for young people. Copyright © 2011 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  8. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  9. Students' Reports of Severe Violence in School as a Tool for Early Detection and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yablon, Yaacov B.

    2017-01-01

    Early detection of severe violence is a significant challenge for many schools. Three studies were conducted on samples of 6th, 8th, and 10th graders (12-16 years old). The first study, based on paired reports of teachers and students (n = 130), showed that a high percentage of both victims and perpetrators of severe violence are not identified by…

  10. Severe childhood burns in the Czech Republic: risk factors and prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čelko, Alexander Martin; Dáňová, Jana; Barss, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Objective To assess risk factors for paediatric burn injuries in the Czech Republic and to suggest preventive measures. Methods This study included all children aged 0–16 years hospitalized during 1993–2000 at the Prague Burn Centre and data from the Czech Ministry of Health on national paediatric burn hospitalizations during 1996–2006. Personal, equipment and environmental risk factors were identified from hospital records. Findings The incidence of burn admissions among 0–14 year-olds increased from 85 to 96 per 100 000 between 1996 and 2006, mainly due to a 13% increase among 1–4 year-olds. Between 1993–2000 and 2006, the proportion of burn victims in the country hospitalized at the Prague Burn Centre increased from 9% to 21%. Detailed data were available on 1064 children (64% boys). Around 31% of all burn hospitalizations were in 1 year-olds. Some 79% of burns occurred at home: 70% in the kitchen, 14% in the living room or bedroom and 11% in the bathroom. Of the 18% occurring outdoors, 80% involved boys. Scalds from hot liquids accounted for 70% of all burns. The mean hospital stay was 22 days for boys and 18 days for girls. Conclusion Most burns involved scalds from hot liquids at home: beverages in kitchens and water in bathrooms. There is a need for passive preventive measures, such as redesigned domestic cooking and eating areas, safer electrical kettles and temperature control devices for bathrooms. Educational programmes should be developed for parents and caregivers. A national plan for child burn prevention with specific targets would be helpful. PMID:19551256

  11. 4Ps medicine of the fatty liver: the research model of predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory medicine-recommendations for facing obesity, fatty liver and fibrosis epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trovato, Francesca Maria; Catalano, Daniela; Musumeci, Giuseppe; Trovato, Guglielmo M

    2014-01-01

    Relationship between adipose tissue and fatty liver, and its possible evolution in fibrosis, is supported by clinical and research experience. Given the multifactorial pathogenesis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), treatments for various contributory risk factors have been proposed; however, there is no single validated therapy or drug association recommended for all cases which can stand alone. Mechanisms, diagnostics, prevention and treatment of obesity, fatty liver and insulin resistance are displayed along with recommendations and position points. Evidences and practice can get sustainable and cost-benefit valuable outcomes by participatory interventions. These recommendations can be enhanced by comprehensive research projects, addressed to societal issues and innovation, market appeal and industry development, cultural acceptance and sustainability. The basis of participatory medicine is a greater widespread awareness of a condition which is both a disease and an easy documented and inclusive clue for associated diseases and unhealthy lifestyle. This model is suitable for addressing prevention and useful for monitoring improvement, worsening and adherence with non-invasive imaging tools which allow targeted approaches. The latter include health psychology and nutritional and physical exercise prescription expertise disseminated by continuous medical education but, more important, by concrete curricula for training undergraduate and postgraduate students. It is possible and recommended to do it by early formal teaching of ultrasound imaging procedures and of practical lifestyle intervention strategies, including approaches aimed to healthier fashion suggestions. Guidelines and requirements of research project funding calls should be addressed also to NAFLD and allied conditions and should encompass the goal of training by research and the inclusion of participatory medicine topics. A deeper awareness of ethics of competences in health professionals

  12. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  13. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  14. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  15. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  16. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  17. Evaluation of a cavity flooding strategy for the prevention of reactor vessel failure in a severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Rae Joon; Je, Moo Sung; Park, Chang Kyoo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, TaeJon (Korea, Republic of)

    1994-10-01

    As a part of the evaluation of accident management strategies for severe accident prevention or mitigation in a station blackout scenario for YGN 3 and 4, an external vessel cooling strategy for the prevention of reactor vessel failure has been estimated using the MAAP4 computer code. The sensitivity studies have been performed such as actuating timings and the number of spray pumps used. To explore external vessel cooling strategies, containment spray pumps were actuated by varying time spanning core uncovery, core melting and relocation of molten core material. It was shown that flooding of the reactor cavity using the containment spray system may prevent reactor vessel failure but may not prevent the failure of the relocation of molten core material during the station blackout sequence of YGN 3 and 4. Reactor vessel failure can be prevented by external vessel cooling using condensed water from the operation of two containment spray pumps at the time of core melting and using water from the operation of one containment spray pumps at the time of core melting and using water from the operation of one containment spray pump at the time of core uncovery. (Author) 46 refs., 26 figs., 5 tabs.

  18. Open trial of cimetidine in the prevention of upper gastro-intestinal haemorrhage in patients with severe intracranial injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouawad, E; Deloof, T; Genette, F; Vandesteene, A

    1983-01-01

    The present study evaluates the efficacy of Cimetidine in the prevention of clinically important gastro-intestinal haemorrhage in patients suffering from severe head injury. Fifty patients (39 males and 11 females) were included in the study. We excluded from the trial patients on anticoagulant therapy or concomitant non-steroid anti-inflammatory agents, pregnant and lactating women, and patients with previous histories of peptic ulcer disease.

  19. Prevention and management of severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia in Afghanistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background An evidence-based strategy exists to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality associated with severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia (PE/E), but it may be difficult to implement in low-resource settings. This study examines whether facilities that provide emergency obstetric and newborn care (EmONC) in Afghanistan have the capacity to manage severe PE/E cases. Methods A further analysis was conducted of the 2009–10 Afghanistan EmONC Needs Assessment. Assessors observed equipment and supplies available, and services provided at 78 of the 127 facilities offering comprehensive EmONC services and interviewed 224 providers. The providers also completed a written case scenario on severe PE/E. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize facility and provider characteristics. Student t-test, one-way ANOVA, and chi-square tests were performed to determine whether there were significant differences between facility types, doctors and midwives, and trained and untrained providers. Results The median number of severe PE/E cases in the past year was just 5 (range 0–42) at comprehensive health centers (CHCs) and district hospitals, compared with 44 (range 0–130) at provincial hospitals and 108 (range 32–540) at regional and specialized hospitals (p Afghanistan, but providers lack knowledge in some areas, especially concerning the use of MgSO4 and diazepam. Providers who have specialized training or work at larger facilities are better at managing cases of severe PE/E. The findings suggest a need to clarify service delivery guidelines, offer refresher training, and reinforce best practices with supervision and reinforcement. PMID:24119329

  20. Design measures for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents at advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-06-01

    Over 8500 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated with the current nuclear energy systems. New generations of nuclear power plants are being developed, building upon this background of experience. During the last decade, requirements for equipment specifically intended to minimize releases of radioactive material to the environment in the event of a core melt accident have been introduced, and designs for new plants include measures for preventing and mitigating a range of severe accident scenarios. The IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Impact of Severe Accidents on Plant Design and Layout of Advanced Water Cooled Reactors was jointly organized by the Department of Nuclear Energy and the Department of Nuclear Safety to review measures which are being incorporated into advanced water cooled reactor designs for preventing and mitigating severe accidents, the status of experimental and analytical investigations of severe accident phenomena and challenges which support design decisions and accident management procedures, and to understand the impact of explicitly addressing severe accidents on the cost of nuclear power plants. This publication is intended to provide an objective source of information on this topic. It includes 14 papers presented at the Technical Committee meeting held in Vienna between 21-25 October 1996. It also includes a Summary and Findings of the Working Groups. The papers were grouped in three sections. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper

  1. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  2. The journey from traffic offender to severe road trauma victim: destiny or preventive opportunity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Kwok M; Rao, Sudhakar; Burrell, Maxine; Weeramanthri, Tarun S

    2015-01-01

    Road trauma is a leading cause of death and injury in young people. Traffic offences are common, but their importance as a risk indicator for subsequent road trauma is unknown. This cohort study assessed whether severe road trauma could be predicted by a history of prior traffic offences. Clinical data of all adult road trauma patients admitted to the Western Australia (WA) State Trauma Centre between 1998 and 2013 were linked to traffic offences records at the WA Department of Transport. The primary outcomes were alcohol exposure prior to road trauma, severe trauma (defined by Injury Severity Score >15), and intensive care admission (ICU) or death, analyzed by logistic regression. Traffic offences directly leading to the road trauma admissions were excluded. Of the 10,330 patients included (median age 34 years-old, 78% male), 1955 (18.9%) had alcohol-exposure before road trauma, 2415 (23.4%) had severe trauma, 1360 (13.2%) required ICU admission, and 267 (2.6%) died. Prior traffic offences were recorded in 6269 (60.7%) patients. The number of prior traffic offences was significantly associated with alcohol-related road trauma (odds ratio [OR] per offence 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.05), severe trauma (OR 1.13, 95%CI 1.14-1.15), and ICU admission or death (OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.08-1.11). Drink-drinking, seat-belt, and use of handheld electronic device offences were specific offences strongly associated with road trauma leading to ICU admission or death--all in a 'dose-related' fashion. For those who recovered from road trauma after an ICU admission, there was a significant reduction in subsequent traffic offences (mean difference 1.8, 95%CI 1.5 to 2.0) and demerit points (mean difference 7.0, 95%CI 6.5 to 7.6) compared to before the trauma event. Previous traffic offences were a significant risk factor for alcohol-related road trauma and severe road trauma leading to ICU admission or death.

  3. The journey from traffic offender to severe road trauma victim: destiny or preventive opportunity?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwok M Ho

    Full Text Available Road trauma is a leading cause of death and injury in young people. Traffic offences are common, but their importance as a risk indicator for subsequent road trauma is unknown. This cohort study assessed whether severe road trauma could be predicted by a history of prior traffic offences.Clinical data of all adult road trauma patients admitted to the Western Australia (WA State Trauma Centre between 1998 and 2013 were linked to traffic offences records at the WA Department of Transport. The primary outcomes were alcohol exposure prior to road trauma, severe trauma (defined by Injury Severity Score >15, and intensive care admission (ICU or death, analyzed by logistic regression. Traffic offences directly leading to the road trauma admissions were excluded. Of the 10,330 patients included (median age 34 years-old, 78% male, 1955 (18.9% had alcohol-exposure before road trauma, 2415 (23.4% had severe trauma, 1360 (13.2% required ICU admission, and 267 (2.6% died. Prior traffic offences were recorded in 6269 (60.7% patients. The number of prior traffic offences was significantly associated with alcohol-related road trauma (odds ratio [OR] per offence 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.05, severe trauma (OR 1.13, 95%CI 1.14-1.15, and ICU admission or death (OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.08-1.11. Drink-drinking, seat-belt, and use of handheld electronic device offences were specific offences strongly associated with road trauma leading to ICU admission or death--all in a 'dose-related' fashion. For those who recovered from road trauma after an ICU admission, there was a significant reduction in subsequent traffic offences (mean difference 1.8, 95%CI 1.5 to 2.0 and demerit points (mean difference 7.0, 95%CI 6.5 to 7.6 compared to before the trauma event.Previous traffic offences were a significant risk factor for alcohol-related road trauma and severe road trauma leading to ICU admission or death.

  4. Severe Hemorrhage from the Umbilical Cord at Birth: A Preventable Cause of Neonatal Shock

    OpenAIRE

    Singh, Neetu; Suresh, Gautham

    2013-01-01

    Posthemorrhagic anemia is a rare but important cause of anemia in neonates, second only to hemolytic anemia of newborn. Most cases of posthemorrhagic anemia are reported from fetomaternal hemorrhage or umbilical cord accidents in utero. This case report describes a preterm infant who developed severe anemia and shock immediately after delivery related to an acute hemorrhage through patent umbilical cord vessels secondary to a tear in the umbilical cord at the site of cord clamping. We believe...

  5. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  6. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  7. Measures for preventing and mitigating severe accidents of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Chengge

    1993-01-01

    Safety goals, integrity of the containment, accident management, functions of existing equipment and measures and emergency preparedness are discussed as technical basis for implementing the new safety code on the nuclear power plant safety design (HAF-0200(91)). The main quantitative safety goals are presented as core melt frequency -5 /ry for new plants and -4 /ry for existing or constructed plants, and 0.1% I, Cs release frequency -6 /ry. To keep the integrity of the containment, main efforts should be placed on the prevention of early failure of the containment and by pass or isolation failures. Should a late failure of the containment occur at a high probability, measures such as filtering vent should be considered. The leak rate of the containment could be higher than the previous 0.1-0.5 wt%/day, depending on the source term and dose results. But, a limiting leak rate of 1 wt%/day is defined. Accident management involves emergency operating procedures, training and retraining for the AM and adding some supporting equipment and display and diagnostic system for the AM. Those requirements are described. Emergency preparedness and measures can reduced the risk significantly. In the most case of accidents, sheltering is preferred as an effective protective actions

  8. Dental Health Behavior in the Prevention of Pulmonary TB at Health Centre in Several Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indirawati Tjahja Notohartojo

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Pulmonary TB is an infectious disease of the respiratory tract caused by bacteria. Dental health professionals such as dentists and dental nurses are in charge of health personnel to prevent, treat, cure, teeth the mouth, so as not to arise or aggravate toothache. In doing their job as dental health workers is expected to use gloves or masks, and always wash their hands to avoid the transmission of pulmonary TB disease. Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted involving 78 dental health professionals in 50 primary health centers that were chosen in six districts in three provinces of Banten, South Kalimantan and Gorontalo. Data were obtained by interviews and processed using SPSSResults: More than 90% dental health workers in work wore masks gloves and washed their hands after work. There was a signifi cant relationship between exercise with dental health professionals with a p value of 0.007, which means a signifi cant. Conclusion: In performing their duties, dental health workers have already used personal protective equipment such asmasks, gloves, and washed their hands and did enough exercise. Recommendation: need to increase knowledge about pulmonary TB in dental health professionals.

  9. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  10. Severe hemorrhage from the umbilical cord at birth: a preventable cause of neonatal shock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Neetu; Suresh, Gautham

    2013-01-01

    Posthemorrhagic anemia is a rare but important cause of anemia in neonates, second only to hemolytic anemia of newborn. Most cases of posthemorrhagic anemia are reported from fetomaternal hemorrhage or umbilical cord accidents in utero. This case report describes a preterm infant who developed severe anemia and shock immediately after delivery related to an acute hemorrhage through patent umbilical cord vessels secondary to a tear in the umbilical cord at the site of cord clamping. We believe that umbilical cord bleeding from errors in cord clamping could be an important cause of acute blood loss in the delivery room and that it may result in significant clinical morbidity, especially in extremely premature infants.

  11. Current Zika virus epidemiology and recent epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioos, S; Mallet, H-P; Leparc Goffart, I; Gauthier, V; Cardoso, T; Herida, M

    2014-07-01

    The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus (Aedes), similar to other arboviruses, first identified in Uganda in 1947. Few human cases were reported until 2007, when a Zika outbreak occurred in Yap, Micronesia, even though ZIKV activity had been reported in Africa and in Asia through virological surveillance and entomological studies. French Polynesia has recorded a large outbreak since October 2013. A great number of cases and some with neurological and autoimmune complications have been reported in a context of concurrent circulation of dengue viruses. The clinical presentation is a "dengue-like syndrome". Until the epidemic in French Polynesia, no severe ZIKV disease had been described so far. The diagnosis is confirmed by viral genome detection by genomic amplification (RT- PCR) and viral isolation. These two large outbreaks occurred in a previously unaffected area in less than a decade. They should raise awareness as to the potential for ZIKV to spread especially since this emergent disease is not well known and that some questions remain on potential reservoirs and transmission modes as well as on clinical presentations and complications. ZIKV has the potential to spread to new areas where the Aedes mosquito vector is present and could be a risk for Southern Europe. Strategies for the prevention and control of ZIKV disease should include the use of insect repellent and mosquito vector eradication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  12. Targeted ethnography as a critical step to inform cultural adaptations of HIV prevention interventions for adults with severe mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainberg, Milton L; Alfredo González, M; McKinnon, Karen; Elkington, Katherine S; Pinto, Diana; Gruber Mann, Claudio; Mattos, Paulo E

    2007-07-01

    As in other countries worldwide, adults with severe mental illness (SMI) in Brazil are disproportionately infected with HIV relative to the general population. Brazilian psychiatric facilities lack tested HIV prevention interventions. To adapt existing interventions, developed only in the US, we conducted targeted ethnography with adults with SMI and staff from two psychiatric institutions in Brazil. We sought to characterize individual, institutional, and interpersonal factors that may affect HIV risk behavior in this population. We conducted 350 hours of ethnographic field observations in two mental health service settings in Rio de Janeiro, and 9 focus groups (n=72) and 16 key-informant interviews with patients and staff in these settings. Data comprised field notes and audiotapes of all exchanges, which were transcribed, coded, and systematically analyzed. The ethnography identified and/or characterized the institutional culture: (1) patients' risk behaviors; (2) the institutional setting; (3) intervention content; and (4) intervention format and delivery strategies. Targeted ethnography also illuminated broader contextual issues for development and implementation of HIV prevention interventions for adults with SMI in Brazil, including an institutional culture that did not systematically address patients' sexual behavior, sexual health, or HIV sexual risk, yet strongly impacted the structure of patients' sexual networks. Further, ethnography identified the Brazilian concept of "social responsibility" as important to prevention work with psychiatric patients. Targeted ethnography with adults with SMI and institutional staff provided information critical to the adaptation of tested US HIV prevention interventions for Brazilians with SMI.

  13. Severe acute dehydration in a desert rodent elicits a transcriptional response that effectively prevents kidney injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacManes, Matthew David

    2017-08-01

    Animals living in desert environments are forced to survive despite severe heat, intense solar radiation, and both acute and chronic dehydration. These animals have evolved phenotypes that effectively address these environmental stressors. To begin to understand the ways in which the desert-adapted rodent Peromyscus eremicus survives, reproductively mature adults were subjected to 72 h of water deprivation, during which they lost, on average, 23% of their body weight. The animals reacted via a series of changes in the kidney, which included modulating expression of genes responsible for reducing the rate of transcription and maintaining water and salt balance. Extracellular matrix turnover appeared to be decreased, and apoptosis was limited. In contrast to the canonical human response, serum creatinine and other biomarkers of kidney injury were not elevated, suggesting that changes in gene expression related to acute dehydration may effectively prohibit widespread kidney damage in the cactus mouse. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  14. Severe Hemorrhage from the Umbilical Cord at Birth: A Preventable Cause of Neonatal Shock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neetu Singh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Posthemorrhagic anemia is a rare but important cause of anemia in neonates, second only to hemolytic anemia of newborn. Most cases of posthemorrhagic anemia are reported from fetomaternal hemorrhage or umbilical cord accidents in utero. This case report describes a preterm infant who developed severe anemia and shock immediately after delivery related to an acute hemorrhage through patent umbilical cord vessels secondary to a tear in the umbilical cord at the site of cord clamping. We believe that umbilical cord bleeding from errors in cord clamping could be an important cause of acute blood loss in the delivery room and that it may result in significant clinical morbidity, especially in extremely premature infants.

  15. Probiotics: Prevention of Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial-PROSPECT: a pilot trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Deborah J; Johnstone, Jennie; Marshall, John C; Lauzier, Francois; Thabane, Lehana; Mehta, Sangeeta; Dodek, Peter M; McIntyre, Lauralyn; Pagliarello, Joe; Henderson, William; Taylor, Robert W; Cartin-Ceba, Rodrigo; Golan, Eyal; Herridge, Margaret; Wood, Gordon; Ovakim, Daniel; Karachi, Tim; Surette, Michael G; Bowdish, Dawn M E; Lamarche, Daphnee; Verschoor, Chris P; Duan, Erick H; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Arabi, Yaseen; Meade, Maureen

    2016-08-02

    Probiotics are live microorganisms that may confer health benefits when ingested. Randomized trials suggest that probiotics significantly decrease the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and the overall incidence of infection in critically ill patients. However, these studies are small, largely single-center, and at risk of bias. The aim of the PROSPECT pilot trial was to determine the feasibility of conducting a larger trial of probiotics to prevent VAP in mechanically ventilated patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). In a randomized blinded trial, patients expected to be mechanically ventilated for ≥72 hours were allocated to receive either 1 × 10(10) colony-forming units of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG or placebo, twice daily. Patients were excluded if they were at increased risk of L. rhamnosus GG infection or had contraindications to enteral medication. Feasibility objectives were: (1) timely recruitment; (2) maximal protocol adherence; (3) minimal contamination; and (4) estimated VAP rate ≥10 %. We also measured other infections, diarrhea, ICU and hospital length of stay, and mortality. Overall, in 14 centers in Canada and the USA, all feasibility goals were met: (1) 150 patients were randomized in 1 year; (2) protocol adherence was 97 %; (3) no patients received open-label probiotics; and (4) the VAP rate was 19 %. Other infections included: bloodstream infection (19.3 %), urinary tract infections (12.7 %), and skin and soft tissue infections (4.0 %). Diarrhea, defined as Bristol type 6 or 7 stools, occurred in 133 (88.7 %) of patients, the median length of stay in ICU was 12 days (quartile 1 to quartile 3, 7-18 days), and in hospital was 26 days (quartile 1 to quartile 3, 14-44 days); 23 patients (15.3 %) died in the ICU. The PROSPECT pilot trial supports the feasibility of a larger trial to investigate the effect of L. rhamnosus GG on VAP and other nosocomial infections in critically ill patients. Clinicaltrials

  16. Early enteral nutrition prevents intra-abdominal hypertension and reduces the severity of severe acute pancreatitis compared with delayed enteral nutrition: a prospective pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jia-Kui; Li, Wei-Qin; Ke, Lu; Tong, Zhi-Hui; Ni, Hai-Bin; Li, Gang; Zhang, Lu-Yao; Nie, Yao; Wang, Xin-Ying; Ye, Xiang-Hong; Li, Ning; Li, Jie-Shou

    2013-09-01

    To investigate the effects of early enteral nutrition (EEN) on intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) and disease severity in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Enteral nutrition (EN) was started within 48 h after admission in the EEN group and from the 8th day in the delayed enteral nutrition (DEN) group. The IAP and intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) incidence were recorded for 2 weeks. The caloric intake and feeding intolerance (FI) incidence were recorded daily after EN was started. The severity markers and clinical outcome variables were also recorded. Sixty patients were enrolled to this study. No difference about IAP was found. The IAH incidence of the EEN group was significantly lower than that of the DEN group from the 9th day (8/30 versus 18/30; P = 0.009) after admission. The FI incidence of the EEN group was higher than that of the DEN group during the initial 3 days of feeding (25/30 versus 12/30; P = 0.001; 22/30 versus 9/30; P = 0.001; 15/30 versus 4/30; P = 0.002). Patients with an IAP FI incidence than those with an IAP ≥15 mmHg on the 1st day (20/22 versus 17/38; P < 0.001), the 3rd day (11/13 versus 8/47; P < 0.001), and the 7th day (3/5 versus 3/55; P = 0.005) of feeding. The severity markers and clinical outcome variables of the EEN group were significantly improved. Early enteral nutrition did not increase IAP. In contrast, it might prevent the development of IAH. In addition, EEN might be not appropriate during the initial 3-4 days of SAP onset. Moreover, EN might be of benefit to patients with an IAP <15 mmHg. Early enteral nutrition could improve disease severity and clinical outcome, but did not decrease mortality of SAP.

  17. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  18. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  19. Outcomes of severe uveitic glaucoma treated with Baerveldt implant: can blindness be prevented?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Annelie N; Cornelissen, Michiel F; Webers, Carroll A B; Erckens, Roel J; Berendschot, Tos T J M; Beckers, Henny J M

    2018-02-01

    To evaluate long-term outcomes on efficacy and safety of severe uveitic glaucoma treated with a Baerveldt glaucoma implant (BGI). A retrospective study of 47 eyes of 47 patients with uveitic glaucoma treated by a BGI between September 2002 and September 2015. Main outcome measures were intraocular pressure (IOP), number of glaucoma medications, course of the uveitis, visual acuity (VA) and complications. Mean IOP dropped from 30.6 ± 8.1 mmHg with 3.6 ± 1.1 glaucoma medications at baseline to 10.6 ± 4.3 mmHg with 1.0 ± 1.3 glaucoma medications after a mean follow-up of 63.6 ± 43.1 months. In the majority of cases, IOP remained stable during follow-up. However, especially in several patients with viral uveitis, episodes with IOP peaks were observed during a flare-up despite a functioning implant. These peaks remained below preoperative levels. During follow-up, 16 patients (34%) experienced a clinically significant VA loss, mainly because of late-stage glaucoma or hypotony maculopathy. Early postoperative complications were transient choroidal effusion (n = 5), shallow/flat anterior chamber (n = 4), hyphaema (n = 2) and suprachoroidal haemorrhage (n = 1). The most important late postoperative complication was hypotony maculopathy (n = 5), three of these in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients. The BGI is an effective and safe treatment for patients with refractive secondary glaucoma due to uveitis. In a majority of patients, VA remains stable and a low and stable IOP is maintained over time with an acceptable number of complications. In particular, patients with viral uveitis and glaucoma should be closely monitored for IOP peaks that may occur during episodes of a flare-up of uveitis, whereas at the other end of the spectrum, patients with JIA seem much more prone to hypotony maculopathy. © 2017 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Preventing Severe Asthma Exacerbations in Children. A Randomized Trial of Mite-Impermeable Bedcovers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Clare S; Foden, Philip; Sumner, Helen; Shepley, Elizabeth; Custovic, Adnan; Simpson, Angela

    2017-07-15

    Allergen exposure in sensitized individuals with asthma interacts with viruses to increase the risk of asthma exacerbation. To evaluate the use of house dust mite-impermeable bedding and its impact on severe asthma exacerbations in children. We randomized mite-sensitized children with asthma (ages 3-17 yr) after an emergency hospital attendance with an asthma exacerbation to receive mite-impermeable (active group) or control (placebo group) bed encasings. Over a 12-month intervention period, the occurrence of severe asthma exacerbations was investigated. Of 434 children with asthma who consented, 286 (mean age, 7.7 yr; male sex, 65.8%) were mite sensitized, and 284 were randomized (146 to the active group and 138 to the placebo group). At 12 months, significantly fewer children in the active group than in the placebo group had attended the hospital with an exacerbation (36 [29.3%] of 123 vs. 49 [41.5%] of 118; P = 0.047). In the multivariable analysis, the risk of emergency hospital attendance was 45% lower in the active group (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.85; P = 0.006) than in the placebo group. The annual rate of emergency hospital attendance with exacerbations was 27% lower in the active group than in the placebo group, but this did not reach significance (estimated marginal mean [95% CI], active, 0.38 [0.26-0.56] vs. placebo, 0.52 [0.35-0.76]; P = 0.18). No difference between the groups in the risk of prednisolone use for exacerbation was found (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.58-1.17; P = 0.28). Mite-impermeable encasings are effective in reducing the number of mite-sensitized children with asthma attending the hospital with asthma exacerbations but not the number requiring oral prednisolone. This simple measure may reduce the health care burden of asthma exacerbations in children. Clinical trial registered with www.isrctn.com (ISRCTN 69543196).

  1. Secondary benefit of maintaining normal transcranial Doppler velocities when using hydroxyurea for prevention of severe sickle cell anemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghafuri, Djamila Labib; Chaturvedi, Shruti; Rodeghier, Mark; Stimpson, Sarah-Jo; McClain, Brandi; Byrd, Jeannie; DeBaun, Michael R

    2017-07-01

    In a retrospective cohort study, we tested the hypothesis that when prescribing hydroxyurea (HU) to children with sickle cell anemia (SCA) to prevent vaso-occlusive events, there will be a secondary benefit of maintaining low transcranial Doppler (TCD) velocity, measured by imaging technique (TCDi). HU was prescribed for 90.9% (110 of 120) of children with SCA ≥5 years of age and followed for a median of 4.4 years, with 70% (n = 77) receiving at least one TCDi evaluation after starting HU. No child prescribed HU had a conditional or abnormal TCDi measurement. HU initiation for disease severity prevention decreases the prevalence of abnormal TCDi velocities. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  3. Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

  4. Conceptual Design of Portable Filtered Air Suction Systems For Prevention of Released Radioactive Gas under Severe Accidents of NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gu, Beom W.; Choi, Su Y.; Yim, Man S.; Rim, Chun T. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    It becomes evident that severe accidents may occur by unexpected disasters such as tsunami, heavy flood, or terror. Once radioactive material is released from NPP through severe accidents, there are no ways to prevent the released radioactive gas spreading in the air. As a remedy for this problem, the idea on the portable filtered air suction system (PoFASS) for the prevention of released radioactive gas under severe accidents was proposed. In this paper, the conceptual design of a PoFASS focusing on the number of robot fingers and robot arm rods are proposed. In order to design a flexible robot suction nozzle, mathematical models for the gaps which represent the lifted heights of extensible covers for given convex shapes of pipes and for the covered areas are developed. In addition, the system requirements for the design of the robot arms of PoFASS are proposed, which determine the accessible range of leakage points of released radioactive gas. In this paper, the conceptual designs of the flexible robot suction nozzle and robot arm have been conducted. As a result, the minimum number of robot fingers and robot arm rods are defined to be four and three, respectively. For further works, extensible cover designs on the flexible robot suction nozzle and the application of the PoFASS to the inside of NPP should be studied because the radioactive gas may be released from connection pipes between the containment building and auxiliary buildings.

  5. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

    OpenAIRE

    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended anal...

  6. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Granell, Clara; Gomez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusiv...

  7. Recombinant factor VIII Fc fusion protein for the prevention and treatment of bleeding in children with severe hemophilia A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, G; Mahlangu, J; Kulkarni, R; Nolan, B; Liesner, R; Pasi, J; Barnes, C; Neelakantan, S; Gambino, G; Cristiano, L M; Pierce, G F; Allen, G

    2015-06-01

    Prophylactic factor replacement, which prevents hemarthroses and thereby reduces the musculoskeletal disease burden in children with hemophilia A, requires frequent intravenous infusions (three to four times weekly). Kids A-LONG was a phase 3 open-label study evaluating the safety, efficacy and pharmacokinetics of a longer-acting factor, recombinant factor VIII Fc fusion protein (rFVIIIFc), in previously treated children with severe hemophilia A (endogenous FVIII level of hemophilia A. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

  8. Pains and Gains from China's Experiences with Emerging Epidemics: From SARS to H7N9

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Pengfei; Cai, Zelang; Hua, Jinwen; Yu, Weijia; Chen, Jiajie; Kang, Kang; Qiu, Congling; Ye, Lanlan; Hu, Jiayun; Ji, Kunmei

    2016-01-01

    Over the recent decades, China experienced several emerging virus outbreaks including those caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome- (SARS-) coronavirus (Cov), H5N1 virus, and H7N9 virus. The SARS tragedy revealed faults in China’s infectious disease prevention system, propelling the Chinese government to enact reforms that enabled better combating of the subsequent H1N1 and H7N9 avian flu epidemics. The system is buttressed by three fundamental, mutually reinforcing components: (1) e...

  9. Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuiyuan Guo

    Full Text Available We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R0 as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31-50%, 45% (42-48%, and 51% (44-56% among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.

  10. Context analysis for epidemic control in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, Y.L.; Kraaij-Dirkzwager, M.M.; Timen, A.; Schuitmaker-Warnaar, T.J.; van Steenbergen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    When epidemics occur, experts advise the Ministries on effective control measures. There is uncertainty in the translation of epidemiological evidence into effective outbreak management interventions, due to contradicatory problem perspectives, diverse interests and time pressure. Several models

  11. Role of Passive Safety Features in Prevention And Mitigation of Severe Plant Conditions in Indian Advanced Heavy Water Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Vikas; Nayak, A.; Dhiman, M.; Kulkarni, P. P.; Vijayan, P. K.; Vaze, K. K. [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

    2013-10-15

    Pressing demands of economic competitiveness, the need for large-scale deployment, minimizing the need of human intervention, and experience from the past events and incidents at operating reactors have guided the evolution and innovations in reactor technologies. Indian innovative reactor 'AHWR' is a pressure-tube type natural circulation based boiling water reactor that is designed to meet such requirements, which essentially reflect the needs of next generation reactors. The reactor employs various passive features to prevent and mitigate accidental conditions, like a slightly negative void reactivity coefficient, passive poison injection to scram the reactor in event of failure of the wired shutdown systems, a large elevated pool of water as a heat sink inside the containment, passive decay heat removal based on natural circulation and passive valves, passive ECC injection, etc. It is designed to meet the fundamental safety requirements of safe shutdown, safe decay heat removal and confinement of activity with no impact in public domain, and hence, no need for emergency planning under all conceivable scenarios. This paper examines the role of the various passive safety systems in prevention and mitigation of severe plant conditions that may arise in event of multiple failures. For the purpose of demonstration of the effectiveness of its passive features, postulated scenarios on the lines of three major severe accidents in the history of nuclear power reactors are considered, namely; the Three Mile Island (TMI), Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. Severe plant conditions along the lines of these scenarios are postulated to the extent conceivable in the reactor under consideration and analyzed using best estimate system thermal-hydraulics code RELAP5/Mod3.2. It is found that the various passive systems incorporated enable the reactor to tolerate the postulated accident conditions without causing severe plant conditions and core degradation.

  12. ROLE OF PASSIVE SAFETY FEATURES IN PREVENTION AND MITIGATION OF SEVERE PLANT CONDITIONS IN INDIAN ADVANCED HEAVY WATER REACTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIKAS JAIN

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Pressing demands of economic competitiveness, the need for large-scale deployment, minimizing the need of human intervention, and experience from the past events and incidents at operating reactors have guided the evolution and innovations in reactor technologies. Indian innovative reactor ‘AHWR’ is a pressure-tube type natural circulation based boiling water reactor that is designed to meet such requirements, which essentially reflect the needs of next generation reactors. The reactor employs various passive features to prevent and mitigate accidental conditions, like a slightly negative void reactivity coefficient, passive poison injection to scram the reactor in event of failure of the wired shutdown systems, a large elevated pool of water as a heat sink inside the containment, passive decay heat removal based on natural circulation and passive valves, passive ECC injection, etc. It is designed to meet the fundamental safety requirements of safe shutdown, safe decay heat removal and confinement of activity with no impact in public domain, and hence, no need for emergency planning under all conceivable scenarios. This paper examines the role of the various passive safety systems in prevention and mitigation of severe plant conditions that may arise in event of multiple failures. For the purpose of demonstration of the effectiveness of its passive features, postulated scenarios on the lines of three major severe accidents in the history of nuclear power reactors are considered, namely; the Three Mile Island (TMI, Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. Severe plant conditions along the lines of these scenarios are postulated to the extent conceivable in the reactor under consideration and analyzed using best estimate system thermal-hydraulics code RELAP5/Mod3.2. It is found that the various passive systems incorporated enable the reactor to tolerate the postulated accident conditions without causing severe plant conditions and core degradation.

  13. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  14. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  16. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  17. Ebola Virus Epidemic in West Africa: Global Health Economic Challenges, Lessons Learned, and Policy Recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmahdawy, Mahmoud; Elsisi, Gihan H; Carapinha, Joao; Lamorde, Mohamed; Habib, Abdulrazaq; Agyie-Baffour, Peter; Soualmi, Redouane; Ragab, Samah; Udezi, Anthony W; Usifoh, Cyril; Usifoh, Stella

    2017-09-01

    The Ebola virus has spread across several Western Africa countries, adding a significant financial burden to their health systems and economies. In this article the experience with Ebola is reviewed, and economic challenges and policy recommendations are discussed to help curb the impact of other diseases in the future. The West African Ebola virus disease epidemic started in resource-constrained settings and caused thousands of fatalities during the last epidemic. Nevertheless, given population mobility, international travel, and an increasingly globalized economy, it has the potential to re-occur and evolve into a global pandemic. Struggling health systems in West African countries hinder the ability to reduce the causes and effects of the Ebola epidemic. The lessons learned include the need for strengthening health systems, mainly primary care systems, expedited access to treatments and vaccines to treat the Ebola virus disease, guidance on safety, efficacy, and regulatory standards for such treatments, and ensuring that research and development efforts are directed toward existing needs. Other lessons include adopting policies that allow for better flow of relief, averting the adverse impact of strong quarantine policy that includes exaggerating the aversion behavior by alarming trade and business partners providing financial support to strengthen growth in the affected fragile economies by the Ebola outbreak. Curbing the impact of future Ebola epidemics, or comparable diseases, requires increased long-term investments in health system strengthening, better collaboration between different international organizations, more funding for research and development efforts aimed at developing vaccines and treatments, and tools to detect, treat, and prevent future epidemics. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Lowe

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain–Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

  19. The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Barcellos, Christovam; Brasil, Patrícia; Cruz, Oswaldo G; Honório, Nildimar Alves; Kuper, Hannah; Carvalho, Marilia Sá

    2018-01-09

    The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

  20. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  1. A familial risk enriched cohort as a platform for testing early interventions to prevent severe mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uher, Rudolf; Cumby, Jill; MacKenzie, Lynn E; Morash-Conway, Jessica; Glover, Jacqueline M; Aylott, Alice; Propper, Lukas; Abidi, Sabina; Bagnell, Alexa; Pavlova, Barbara; Hajek, Tomas; Lovas, David; Pajer, Kathleen; Gardner, William; Levy, Adrian; Alda, Martin

    2014-12-02

    Severe mental illness (SMI), including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and severe depression, is responsible for a substantial proportion of disability in the population. This article describes the aims and design of a research study that takes a novel approach to targeted prevention of SMI. It is based on the rationale that early developmental antecedents to SMI are likely to be more malleable than fully developed mood or psychotic disorders and that low-risk interventions targeting antecedents may reduce the risk of SMI. Families Overcoming Risks and Building Opportunities for Well-being (FORBOW) is an accelerated cohort study that includes a large proportion of offspring of parents with SMI and embeds intervention trials in a cohort multiple randomized controlled trial (cmRCT) design. Antecedents are conditions of the individual that are distressing but not severely impairing, predict SMI with moderate-to-large effect sizes and precede the onset of SMI by at least several years. FORBOW focuses on the following antecedents: affective lability, anxiety, psychotic-like experiences, basic symptoms, sleep problems, somatic symptoms, cannabis use and cognitive delay. Enrolment of offspring over a broad age range (0 to 21 years) will allow researchers to draw conclusions on a longer developmental period from a study of shorter duration. Annual assessments cover a full range of psychopathology, cognitive abilities, eligibility criteria for interventions and outcomes. Pre-emptive early interventions (PEI) will include skill training for parents of younger children and courses in emotional well-being skills based on cognitive behavioural therapy for older children and youth. A sample enriched for familial risk of SMI will enhance statistical power for testing the efficacy of PEI. FORBOW offers a platform for efficient and unbiased testing of interventions selected according to best available evidence. Since few differences exist between familial and 'sporadic' SMI, the

  2. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  3. The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, T. D.

    1983-01-01

    A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

  4. Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Alexandre; Keita, Veronique Sarr; Sauvageot, Delphine; Saliou, Mamadou; Njanpop, Berthe Marie; Sory, Fode; Sudre, Bertrand; Lamine, Koivogui; Mengel, Martin; Gessner, Bradford D; Sakoba, Keita

    2018-02-15

    infected individuals reacted differently in terms of disease severity as well as their access to treated water and travel habits. Such an in-depth description of cholera epidemics should be systematically carried out in cholera endemic settings in order to prioritize higher risk areas, identify transmission factors, and optimize preventive interventions.

  5. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  6. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  7. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  8. Electroacupuncture at Zusanli Prevents Severe Scalds-Induced Gut Ischemia and Paralysis by Activating the Cholinergic Pathway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe burn injuries may result in gastrointestinal paralysis, and barrier dysfunction due to gut ischemia and lowered vagus excitability. In this study we investigate whether electroacupuncture (EA at Zusanli (ST36 could prevent severe scalds-induced gut ischemia, paralysis, and barrier dysfunction and whether the protective role of EA at ST36 is related to the vagus nerve. 35% burn area rats were divided into six groups: (a EAN: EA nonchannel acupoints followed by scald injury; (b EA: EA at ST36 after scald injury; (c VGX/EA: vagotomy (VGX before EA at ST36 and scald injury; (d VGX/EAN: VGX before EAN and scald injury; (e atropine/EA: applying atropine before scald injury and then EA at ST36; (f atropine/EAN: applying atropine before scald injury and then EA at nonchannel acupoints. EA at the Zusanli point significantly promoted the intestinal impelling ratio and increased the amount of mucosal blood flow after scald injury. The plasma diamine oxidase (DAO and intestinal permeability decreased significantly after scald injury in the EA group compared with others. However, EA after atropine injection or cervical vagotomy failed to improve intestinal motility and mucosa blood flow suggesting that the mechanism of EA may be related to the activation of the cholinergic nerve pathway.

  9. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  10. Early stages of the HIV epidemic among injecting drug users: Lessons to be learned

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanvir Ahmed

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Injecting drug use driving the HIV epidemic is currently a major global public health concern. However, the early epidemic among injecting drug users (IDUs, more than three decades ago, was only concentrated in few places. The HIV epidemic among the IDUs in New York, USA; Edinburgh, Scotland, UK; and northern Italy provides examples of where the recorded prevalence exceeded 50% within a very short period of time. This brief review highlights historical perspectives of HIV transmission risk among IDUs during the early stages of the epidemic. Salient features and related experiences during this period might provide valuable insights for current HIV prevention. Our overview of the selected locations reemphasizes the importance of early prevention. The discussion also introduces to new researchers the early situation associated with the HIV epidemic in IDUs and highlights some crucial components need to be included during current HIV prevention activities.

  11. High Adherence to CPAP Treatment Does Not Prevent the Continuation of Weight Gain among Severely Obese OSAS Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myllylä, Minna; Kurki, Samu; Anttalainen, Ulla; Saaresranta, Tarja; Laitinen, Tarja

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) patients benefit from continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment in a dose-response manner. We determined adherence and weight control, as well as their predictors, among long-term CPAP users. Methods: Cohort of 1,023 OSAS patients had used CPAP on average of 6.6 ± 1.2 years. BMI was determined at baseline and at follow-up visits. There were 7.4 ± 1.7 BMI and 6.5 ± 1.8 CPAP usage measurements per patient on average. Using the Bayesian hierarchical model, we determined the patients' individual trends of BMI and adherence development. Patients with significantly increasing or decreasing trends were identified at the posterior probability level of > 90%. Results: The mean age in the cohort was 55.6 ± 9.8 years, BMI 33.5 ± 6.4 kg/m2, apnea-hypopnea index 33.7 ± 23.1, and CPAP usage 6.0 ± 1.8 h/day. The majority of patients had no significant change in BMI (mean annual weight gain 0.04 ± 0.29 kg/m2) or CPAP adherence (mean annual increase 11.4 ± 7.0 min/day). However, at the individual level, 10% of the patients showed significant annual weight gain (0.63 ± 0.35 kg/m2) during the 5-year follow-up period. At baseline these patients were already more severely obese (mean BMI 40.0 ± 5.9 kg/m2) despite being younger (mean 50.9 ± 9.5 years) than the rest of the cohort. Conclusions: In the majority of CPAP-treated OSAS patients, weight did not significantly change but gained slightly slower than in age-matched population in general. However, in 10% of patients, high adherence to CPAP treatment did not prevent the continuation of weight gain. These patients present a high-risk group for OSAS-related multimorbidity later in life. Citation: Myllylä M, Kurki S, Anttalainen U, Saaresranta T, Laitinen T. High adherence to CPAP treatment does not prevent the continuation of weight gain among severely obese OSAS patients. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(4):519–528. PMID:26888588

  12. Prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halken, S; Høst, A

    2001-01-01

    , breastfeeding should be encouraged for 4-6 months. In high-risk infants a documented extensively hydrolysed formula is recommended if exclusive breastfeeding is not possible for the first 4 months of life. There is no evidence for preventive dietary intervention neither during pregnancy nor lactation...... populations. These theories remain to be documented in proper, controlled and prospective studies. Breastfeeding and the late introduction of solid foods (>4 months) is associated with a reduced risk of food allergy, atopic dermatitis, and recurrent wheezing and asthma in early childhood. In all infants....... Preventive dietary restrictions after the age of 4-6 months are not scientifically documented....

  13. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  14. Mathematical modeling of Avian Influenza epidemic with bird vaccination in constant population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharis, M.; Amidi

    2018-03-01

    The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.

  15. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  16. Assessing injury severity in bicyclists involved in traffic accidents to more effectively prevent fatal bicycle injuries in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomei, Sayaka; Hitosugi, Masahito; Ikegami, Keiichi; Tokudome, Shogo

    2013-10-01

    The objective of this study was to clarify the relationship between injury severity in bicyclists involved in traffic accidents and patient outcome or type of vehicle involved in order to propose effective measures to prevent fatal bicycle injuries. Hospital records were reviewed for all patients from 2007 to 2010 who had been involved in a traffic accident while riding a bicycle and were subsequently transferred to the Shock Trauma Center of Dokkyo Medical University Koshigaya Hospital. Patient outcomes and type of vehicle that caused the injury were examined. The mechanism of injury, Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score, and Injury Severity Score (ISS) of the patient were determined. A total of 115 patients' records were reviewed. The mean patient age was 47.1 ± 27.4 years. The average ISS was 23.9, with an average maximum AIS (MAIS) score of 3.7. The ISS, MAIS score, head AIS score, and chest AIS score were well correlated with patient outcome. The head AIS score was significantly higher in patients who had died (mean of 4.4); however, the ISS, MAIS score, and head AIS score did not differ significantly according to the type of vehicle involved in the accident. The mean head AIS scores were as high as 2.4 or more for accidents involving any type of vehicle. This study provides useful information for forensic pathologists who suspect head injuries in bicyclists involved in traffic accidents. To effectively reduce bicyclist fatalities from traffic accidents, helmet use should be required for all bicyclists.

  17. Quantifying the economic benefits of prevention in a healthcare setting with severe financial constraints: the case of hypertension control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasakis, Kostas; Kyriopoulos, Ilias-Ioannis; Boubouchairopoulou, Nadia; Stergiou, George S; Kyriopoulos, John

    2015-01-01

    Hypertension significantly contributes to the increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, thus leading to rising healthcare costs. The objective of this study was to quantify the clinical and economic benefits of optimal systolic blood pressure (SBP), in a setting under severe financial constraints, as in the case of Greece. Hence, a Markov model projecting 10-year outcomes and costs was adopted, in order to compare two scenarios. The first one depicted the "current setting", where all hypertensives in Greece presented an average SBP of 164 mmHg, while the second scenario namely "optimal SBP control" represented a hypothesis in which the whole population of hypertensives would achieve optimal SBP (i.e. perspective (discounted at a 3% annual rate). Findings showed that compared to the "current setting", universal "optimal SBP control" could, within a 10-year period, reduce the occurrence of non-fatal events and deaths, by 80 and 61 cases/1000 male smokers; 59 and 37 cases/1000 men non-smokers; whereas the respective figures for women were 69 and 57 cases/1000 women smokers; and accordingly, 52 and 28 cases/1000 women non-smokers. Considering health expenditures, they could be reduced by approximately €83 million per year. Therefore, prevention of cardiovascular events through BP control could result in reduced morbidity, thereby in substantial cost savings. Based on clinical and economic outcomes, interventions that promote BP control should be a health policy priority.

  18. Enhanced 911/global position system wizard: a telemedicine application for the prevention of severe hypoglycemia--monitor, alert, and locate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dassau, Eyal; Jovanovic, Lois; Doyle, Francis J; Zisser, Howard C

    2009-11-01

    Intensive insulin therapy has an inherent risk of hypoglycemia that can lead to loss of consciousness, cardiac arrhythmia, seizure, and death ("dead-in-bed syndrome"). This risk of hypoglycemia is a major concern for patients, families, and physicians. The need for an automated system that can alert in the event of severe hypoglycemia is evident. In engineering systems, where there is a risk of malfunction of the primary control system, alert and safety mechanisms are implemented in layers of protection. This concept has been adopted in the proposed system that integrates a hypoglycemia prediction algorithm with a global position system (GPS) locator and short message service such that the current glucose value with the rate of change (ROC) and the location of the subject can be communicated to a predefined list. Furthermore, if the system is linked to the insulin pump, it can suspend the pump or decrease the basal insulin infusion rate to prevent the pending event. The system was evaluated on clinical datasets of glucose tracings from the DexCom Seven system. Glucose tracings were analyzed for hypoglycemia events and then a text message was broadcast to a predefined list of people who were notified with the glucose value, ROC, GPS coordinates, and a Google map of the location. In addition to providing a safety layer to a future artificial pancreas, this system also can be easily implemented in current continuous glucose monitors to help provide information and alerts to people with diabetes.

  19. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  20. Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

  1. Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

    2015-08-01

    During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

  2. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  3. Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

    2007-10-01

    The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

  4. Heroin Epidemic PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2015-07-07

    This 60 second public service announcement is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.  Created: 7/7/2015 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 7/7/2015.

  5. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  7. The worldwide obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P T; Leach, R; Kalamara, E; Shayeghi, M

    2001-11-01

    The recent World Health Organization (WHO) agreement on the standardized classification of overweight and obese, based on body mass index (BMI), allows a comparable analysis of prevalence rates worldwide for the first time. In Asia, however, there is a demand for a more limited range for normal BMIs (i.e., 18.5 to 22.9 kg/m(2) rather than 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)) because of the high prevalence of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and hypertension. In children, the International Obesity Task-Force age-, sex-, and BMI-specific cutoff points are increasingly being used. We are currently evaluating BMI data globally as part of a new millennium analysis of the Global Burden of Disease. WHO is analyzing data in terms of 20 or more principal risk factors contributing to the primary causes of disability and lost lives in the 191 countries within the WHO. The prevalence rates for overweight and obese people are different in each region, with the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America having higher prevalence rates. In most countries, women show a greater BMI distribution with higher obesity rates than do men. Obesity is usually now associated with poverty, even in developing countries. Relatively new data suggest that abdominal obesity in adults, with its associated enhanced morbidity, occurs particularly in those who had lower birth weights and early childhood stunting. Waist measurements in nationally representative studies are scarce but will now be needed to estimate the full impact of the worldwide obesity epidemic.

  8. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  9. Preventing HIV among U.S. women of color with severe mental illness: perceptions of mental health care providers working in urban community clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agénor, Madina; Collins, Pamela Y

    2013-01-01

    Given their knowledge of the behavioral issues related to psychiatric illness, mental health care providers are in a unique position to help prevent HIV among women with severe mental illness (SMI). We conducted in-depth interviews with providers at two New York City community clinics. We identified three major, interrelated themes pertaining to HIV prevention among women of color with SMI. Interventions that address the barriers that clinicians face in discussing sex, sexuality, and HIV with patients and train providers in the cultural considerations of cross-cultural mental health care are needed to help prevent HIV among women of color with SMI.

  10. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended analysis tools for network epidemiology, which has, to date, mostly viewed networks as static entities. We review recent results of network epidemiology for such temporal network data and discuss future developments.

  11. Ebola epidemic of 2014-2015: unresolved ethical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbuglia, Anna Rosa

    2016-01-01

    Some ethical aspects of the management of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone which started in January 2014, have been questionable. First, as regards the prevention of the spread of the virus, the necessary epidemiological investigations on the origin of the infection were not carried out adequately and this did not help to curb the spread of the disease. A disparity has been observed between the western and African countries' access to the treatment of patients; this infringes on the principle of equality. This paper also focuses on how the Global Public Goods for Health principle was not fully respected in the management of the epidemic.

  12. Heroin Epidemic PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This 60 second public service announcement is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.

  13. Politics and pellagra: the epidemic of pellagra in the U.S. in the early twentieth century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollet, A. J.

    1992-01-01

    The epidemic of pellagra in the first half of this century at its peak produced at least 250,000 cases and caused 7,000 deaths a year for several decades in 15 southern states. It also filled hospital wards in other states, which had a similar incidence but refused to report their cases. Political influences interfered, not only with surveillance of the disease, but also in its study, recognition of its cause, and the institution of preventive measures when they became known. Politicians and the general public felt that it was more acceptable for pellagra to be infectious than for it to be a form of malnutrition, a result of poverty and thus an embarrassing social problem. Retrospectively, a change in the method of milling cornmeal, degermination, which began shortly after 1900, probably accounted for the appearance of the epidemic; such a process was suggested at the time, but the suggestion was ignored. PMID:1285449

  14. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

  15. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  17. Review: [corrected] The changing face of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutevedzi, Portia C; Newell, Marie-Louise

    2014-09-01

    The widespread roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has substantially changed the face of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Timely initiation of ART in HIV-infected individuals dramatically reduces mortality and improves employment rates to levels prior to HIV infection. Recent findings from several studies have shown that ART reduces HIV transmission risk even with modest ART coverage of the HIV-infected population and imperfect ART adherence. While condoms are highly effective in the prevention of HIV acquisition, they are compromised by low and inconsistent usage; male medical circumcision substantially reduces HIV transmission but uptake remains relatively low; ART during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding can virtually eliminate mother-to-child transmission but implementation is challenging, especially in resource-limited settings. The current HIV prevention recommendations focus on a combination of preventions approach, including ART as treatment or pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis together with condoms, circumcision and sexual behaviour modification. Improved survival in HIV-infected individuals and reduced HIV transmission risk is beginning to result in limited HIV incidence decline at population level and substantial increases in HIV prevalence. However, achievements in HIV treatment and prevention are threatened by the challenges of lifelong adherence to preventive and therapeutic methods and by the ageing of the HIV-infected cohorts potentially complicating HIV management. Although current thinking suggests prevention of HIV transmission through early detection of infection immediately followed by ART could eventually result in elimination of the HIV epidemic, controversies remain as to whether we can treat our way out of the HIV epidemic. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Implementation and Evaluation of a Youth Violence Prevention Program for Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Mary Elana

    2009-01-01

    Youth violence in the city of Philadelphia, PA, has reached epidemic proportions. The majority of homicides related to gun violence is most prevalent among African American males aged 19 to 24 years. Therefore, it is essential to implement youth violence prevention programs to a target population several years younger than this age group to…

  19. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  20. Azithromycin for prevention of exacerbations in severe asthma (AZISAST): A multicentre randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.G. Brusselle (Guy); C. VanderStichele (Christine); P. Jordens (Paul); R. Deman (René); H. Slabbynck (Hans); V. Ringoet (Veerle); G. Verleden (Geert); I.K. Demedts (Ingel); K.M.C. Verhamme (Katia); A. Delporte (Anja); B. Demeyere (Bénédicte); T. Claeys (Tine); J. Boelens (Jerina); E. Padalko (Elizaveta); J. Verschakelen (Johny); G. van Maele (Georges); E. Deschepper (Ellen); G.F. Joos (Guy)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Background:__ Patients with severe asthma are at increased risk of exacerbations and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI). Severe asthma is heterogeneous, encompassing eosinophilic and non-eosinophilic (mainly neutrophilic) phenotypes. Patients with neutropilic airway diseases

  1. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  2. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  3. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  4. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  5. Extended Erythropoietin Treatment Prevents Chronic Executive Functional and Microstructural Deficits Following Early Severe Traumatic Brain Injury in Rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shenandoah Robinson

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Survivors of infant traumatic brain injury (TBI are prone to chronic neurological deficits that impose lifelong individual and societal burdens. Translation of novel interventions to clinical trials is hampered in part by the lack of truly representative preclinical tests of cognition and corresponding biomarkers of functional outcomes. To address this gap, the ability of a high-dose, extended, post-injury regimen of erythropoietin (EPO, 3000U/kg/dose × 6d to prevent chronic cognitive and imaging deficits was tested in a postnatal day 12 (P12 controlled-cortical impact (CCI model in rats, using touchscreen operant chambers and regional analysis of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI. Results indicate that EPO prevents functional injury and MRI injury after infant TBI. Specifically, subacute DTI at P30 revealed widespread microstructural damage that is prevented by EPO. Assessment of visual discrimination on a touchscreen operant chamber platform demonstrated that all groups can perform visual discrimination. However, CCI rats treated with vehicle failed to pass reversal learning, and perseverated, in contrast to sham and CCI-EPO rats. Chronic DTI at P90 showed EPO treatment prevented contralateral white matter and ipsilateral lateral prefrontal cortex damage. This DTI improvement correlated with cognitive performance. Taken together, extended EPO treatment restores executive function and prevents microstructural brain abnormalities in adult rats with cognitive deficits in a translational preclinical model of infant TBI. Sophisticated testing with touchscreen operant chambers and regional DTI analyses may expedite translation and effective yield of interventions from preclinical studies to clinical trials. Collectively, these data support the use of EPO in clinical trials for human infants with TBI.

  6. Morbidity and mortality risk among patients with screening-detected severe hypertension in the Malmö Preventive Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerdahl, Christina; Zöller, Bengt; Arslan, Eren; Erdine, Serap; Nilsson, Peter M

    2014-12-01

    Screening of hypertension has been advocated for early detection and treatment. Severe hypertension (grade 3 hypertension) is a strong predictor for cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to evaluate not only the risk factors for developing severe hypertension, but also the prospective morbidity and mortality risk associated with severe hypertension in a population-based screening and intervention programme. In all, 18,200 individuals from a population-based cohort underwent a baseline examination in 1972-1992 and were re-examined in 2002-2006 in Malmö, Sweden. In total, 300 (1.6%) patients with severe hypertension were identified at re-examination, and predictive risk factors from baseline were calculated. Total and cause-specific morbidity and mortality were followed in national registers in all severe hypertension patients, as well as in age and sex-matched normotensive controls. Cox analyses for hazard ratios were used. Men developing severe hypertension differed from matched controls in baseline variables associated with the metabolic syndrome, as well as paternal history of hypertension (P < 0.001). Women with later severe hypertension were characterized by elevated BMI and a positive maternal history for hypertension at baseline. The risk of mortality, coronary events, stroke and diabetes during follow-up was higher among severe hypertension patients compared to controls. For coronary events, the risk remained elevated adjusted for other risk factors [hazard ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-4.40, P = 0.011]. Family history and variables associated with metabolic syndrome are predictors for severe hypertension after a long-term follow-up. Severe hypertension is associated with increased mortality, cardiovascular morbidity and incident diabetes in spite of treatment. This calls for improved risk factor control in patients with severe hypertension.

  7. A geographic information system for the study of past epidemics: The 1705 epidemic in Martigues (Bouches-du-Rhône, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéfan Tzortzis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available At the beginning of the 18th century, the Provence region was hit by several severe epidemics whose causes are still not clearly understood.To draw up epidemic profiles and to identify the pathogenic agents concerned, we constituted a large onomastic database and built ageographic information system for Martigues, a medium-sized community in the south of France. The cross-linking of epidemiological,spatial and demographical data allows us to propose a new diagnosis for the epidemic which reached Martigues in the autumn of 1705.

  8. Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, 26-29 September, 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DaSilva, Joaquim; Garanganga, Brad; Teveredzi, Vonai; Marx, Sabine M; Mason, Simon J; Connor, Stephen J

    2004-10-22

    Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur. The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming 2004-2005 season. The

  9. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  10. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  11. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  12. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  13. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  14. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel G. Muñoz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  15. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  16. [Examination of the Prevention of Severe Hand Trauma Injury Cases due to Occupational Accidents--An Expert Opinion Gathering Meeting].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenke, Yukichi; Kajiki, Shigeyuki; Yoshikawa, Toru; Nakao, Toyoki; Yoshikawa, Etsuko; Shoji, Takurou; Fukumoto, Keizo; Sakai, Akinori

    2015-12-01

    We gathered seven specialists from various fields who are interested in worker injury prevention programs, based on cases of patients who had suffered refractory injuries requiring hand surgery because of industrial accidents. The patients were asked to write their thoughts and ideas on the theme, "Measures that must be implemented to prevent arm injuries." The content obtained was classified into different categories, using the KJ method, and was scripted to sort out the items. As a result, the following eleven points were identified as measures to prevent serious hand surgery-related injuries: 1. Purchase safe machinery, 2. Create a list of machines that require caution, 3. Enclose a machine's various rotating parts, 4. Carry out periodic maintenance work on the machines, 5. Indicate dangerous areas by putting up signs that attract attention, 6. Illuminate the rotating parts more brightly and avoid placing objects around them, 7. Systematically carry out safety education that creates a strong impact, 8. Encourage workers to look after their own health, 9. Announce policies on health and safety, 10. Re-examine the operational procedures, and 11. Be prepared in case an accident occurs. A perspective based on the results of this research is deemed important in creating a workplace improvement manual in the future.

  17. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  18. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  19. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  20. Quantifying the quiet epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    During the late 20th century numerical rating scales became central to the diagnosis of dementia and helped transform attitudes about its causes and prevalence. Concentrating largely on the development and use of the Blessed Dementia Scale, I argue that rating scales served professional ends during the 1960s and 1970s. They helped old age psychiatrists establish jurisdiction over conditions such as dementia and present their field as a vital component of the welfare state, where they argued that ‘reliable modes of diagnosis’ were vital to the allocation of resources. I show how these arguments appealed to politicians, funding bodies and patient groups, who agreed that dementia was a distinct disease and claimed research on its causes and prevention should be designated ‘top priority’. But I also show that worries about the replacement of clinical acumen with technical and depersonalized methods, which could conceivably be applied by anyone, led psychiatrists to stress that rating scales had their limits and could be used only by trained experts. PMID:25866448

  1. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus among Farmed Pigs, Ukraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dastjerdi, Akbar; Carr, John; Ellis, Richard J; Steinbach, Falko; Williamson, Susanna

    2015-12-01

    An outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea occurred in the summer of 2014 in Ukraine, severely affecting piglets <10 days of age; the mortality rate approached 100%. Full genome sequencing showed the virus to be closely related to strains reported from North America, showing a sequence identity of up to 99.8%.

  2. Etoposide for epidemic Kaposi's sarcoma: a phase II study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, P. J.; Danner, S. A.; Lange, J. M.; Veenhof, K. H.

    1988-01-01

    Fourteen untreated patients with epidemic Kaposi's sarcoma stages III and IV were treated with etoposide 150 mg/m2 on 3 consecutive days every 4 weeks. No responses were observed. Myelosuppression was severe with white blood count WHO grade 3-4 in nine patients and with platelets WHO grade 3-4 in

  3. Epidemic Increase in Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westh, Henrik; Boye, Kit; Bartels, Mette Damkjær

    2006-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We have found an epidemic increase in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Copenhagen. The increase has a complex background and involves hospitals, nursing homes and persons nursed in their own home. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We found 33 MRSA patients in 2003 and 121...... in 2004. All isolates have been spa-typed and epidemiologic information collected. RESULTS: The number of MRSA cases has a doubling time of about six months. The epidemic has been caused by many different MRSA types and 31 staphylococcus protein A genotypes (spa types). MRSA has caused several hospital...

  4. Network Performance Improvement under Epidemic Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we investigate epidemic failure spreading in large- scale GMPLS-controlled transport networks. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network, we design several strategies for cost-effective network performance improvement via differentiated repair times....... First we identify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive simulations we show that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly assigning lower repair times among the network nodes. Our OPNET simulation...... model can be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost- effective network survivability design....

  5. Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

    2014-11-21

    On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

  6. Heroin epidemics, treatment and ODE modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Emma; Comiskey, Catherine

    2007-07-01

    The UN [United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC): World Drug Report, 2005, vol. 1: Analysis. UNODC, 2005.], EU [European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA): Annual Report, 2005.http://annualreport.emcdda.eu.int/en/home-en.html.] and WHO [World Health Organisation (WHO): Biregional Strategy for Harm Reduction, 2005-2009. HIV and Injecting Drug Use. WHO, 2005.] have consistently highlighted in recent years the ongoing and persistent nature of opiate and particularly heroin use on a global scale. While this is a global phenomenon, authors have emphasised the significant impact such an epidemic has on individual lives and on society. National prevalence studies have indicated the scale of the problem, but the drug-using career, typically consisting of initiation, habitual use, a treatment-relapse cycle and eventual recovery, is not well understood. This paper presents one of the first ODE models of opiate addiction, based on the principles of mathematical epidemiology. The aim of this model is to identify parameters of interest for further study, with a view to informing and assisting policy-makers in targeting prevention and treatment resources for maximum effectiveness. An epidemic threshold value, R(0), is proposed for the drug-using career. Sensitivity analysis is performed on R(0) and it is then used to examine the stability of the system. A condition under which a backward bifurcation may exist is found, as are conditions that permit the existence of one or more endemic equilibria. A key result arising from this model is that prevention is indeed better than cure.

  7. Prevention nearby: the influence of the presence of a potential guardian on the severity of child sexual abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclerc, Benoit; Smallbone, Stephen; Wortley, Richard

    2015-04-01

    The main aim of this study was to examine the effect of a potential guardian on the severity of child sexual abuse. Using data obtained on crime events from adult child sexual offenders incarcerated in Queensland (Australia), mixed-effects logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the effect of potential guardianship on the severity of abuse. Controlling for victim and situational characteristics, the analyses showed that the presence of a potential guardian reduced the duration of sexual contact and the occurrence of penetration. Presence of a potential guardian decreased the risk of sexual penetration by 86%. The study highlights the importance of the presence of a potential guardian for reducing the severity of child sexual abuse, and suggests more broadly that guardianship may be an important protective factor in sexual offending. © The Author(s) 2013.

  8. [Epidemic research in the south of Fujian Province in modern times from the viewpoints of overseas communication].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Nan; Zhang, Sun-Biao; Zeng, Yi-Ling

    2012-09-01

    Under the particular geographical environment and social structure, different spatiality of epidemics was observed in the south of Fujian Province. Some important factors cannot be ignored in the study of local epidemics, such as its developed overseas communication, prosperous commercial activities between the East and the West and deep-rooted overseas emigration tradition. In modern times, public health ideas, therapies and prevention measures of west medicine were introduced, taking epidemic disease prevention as a turning point in this area, which promoted medical development of this area objectively, and valuable experience in disease prevention was accumulated.

  9. Real-time continuous glucose monitoring as a tool to prevent severe hypoglycaemia in selected pregnant women with Type 1 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Secher, A L; Stage, E; Ringholm, Lene

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: Among women with Type 1 diabetes who have had severe hypoglycaemia the year before pregnancy, 70% also experience this complication in pregnancy, and particularly in the first half of pregnancy. We evaluated whether routine use of real-time continuous glucose monitoring from early pregnancy...... onwards could prevent severe hypoglycaemia in these women. METHODS: All 136 consecutive pregnant women with Type 1 diabetes referred to our centre were asked about severe hypoglycaemic events in the year before pregnancy and early in pregnancy at their first antenatal visit. Women with a relevant recent...... history were informed about their additional high risk of severe hypoglycaemia, their treatment was focused on restricted insulin doses during the first 16 gestational weeks, and they were offered real-time continuous glucose monitoring on top of self-monitored plasma glucose measurements. RESULTS: Among...

  10. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  11. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  12. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

  13. The QUANTEC criteria for parotid gland dose and their efficacy to prevent moderate to severe patient-rated xerostomia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beetz, Ivo; Steenbakkers, Roel J H M; Chouvalova, Olga; Leemans, Charles R; Doornaert, Patricia; van der Laan, Bernard F A M; Christianen, Miranda E M C; Vissink, Arjan; Bijl, Henk P; van Luijk, Peter; Langendijk, Johannes A

    2014-05-01

    Recently, the Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effect in the Clinic (QUANTEC) Group defined dose-volume constraints for the parotid glands to avoid severe xerostomia. The aim of this study was to determine if application of these QUANTEC criteria also protected against moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia. The study population consisted of 307 head and neck cancer patients treated with primary (chemo)radiotherapy, either with 3D-CRT (56%) or with IMRT (44%). All patients participated in a standard follow-up program in which radiation-induced toxicity and quality of life were prospectively assessed. Patients who met the QUANTEC criteria were classified as low risk and otherwise as high risk. In total, 41% of the patients (treated with 3D-CRT and IMRT) were classified as low risk patients. In the group treated with 3D-CRT and IMRT, it was possible to meet the QUANTEC criteria in 47% and 32% of the patients, respectively. Sparing the parotid glands with IMRT was considerably more difficult in patients with lymph node metastases and in patients with nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal tumours. Low risk patients reported significantly less moderate-to-severe xerostomia than high risk patients. However, the predicted risk of elderly patients and patients with pre-existing minor patient-rated xerostomia at baseline was > 20%, even when the QUANTEC criteria were met. Significantly lower rates of radiation-induced patient-rated xerostomia were found among low risk patients treated according to the QUANTEC criteria, but these criteria do not completely protect against xerostomia. Particularly in elderly patients and patients already suffering from minor xerostomia at baseline, the QUANTEC criteria do not sufficiently protect against persistent, moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia.

  14. [MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

    2009-01-01

    It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

  15. Neoliberal science, Chinese style: Making and managing the 'obesity epidemic'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhalgh, Susan

    2016-08-01

    Science and Technology Studies has seen a growing interest in the commercialization of science. In this article, I track the role of corporations in the construction of the obesity epidemic, deemed one of the major public health threats of the century. Focusing on China, a rising superpower in the midst of rampant, state-directed neoliberalization, I unravel the process, mechanisms, and broad effects of the corporate invention of an obesity epidemic. Largely hidden from view, Western firms were central actors at every stage in the creation, definition, and governmental management of obesity as a Chinese disease. Two industry-funded global health entities and the exploitation of personal ties enabled actors to nudge the development of obesity science and policy along lines beneficial to large firms, while obscuring the nudging. From Big Pharma to Big Food and Big Soda, transnational companies have been profiting from the 'epidemic of Chinese obesity', while doing little to effectively treat or prevent it. The China case suggests how obesity might have been constituted an 'epidemic threat' in other parts of the world and underscores the need for global frameworks to guide the study of neoliberal science and policymaking.

  16. The protection against infection and epidemics as a point of the disaster-related medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stickl, H.

    1981-01-01

    If the hygienic infrastructure is maintained, epidemics cannot reach the extent of a catastrophe. During the course of a catastrophe, however, epidemics can develop; they may accompany and influence the outcome of a catastrophe. This can take place if the hygienic infrastructure is disturbed or destroyed, or if the resistance of the affected population is impaired (intoxication, hunger, irradiation, etc.). Proven an possible remedies and methods to prevent the infections consequences of catastrophes are described. (orig.) [de

  17. Germany: Assessment of the efficiency of a passive safety system for prevention of severe accidents for SFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubelis, E.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the study was the evaluation of severe transient behavior in Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and of the impact of newly conceived inherent mitigation measures (the use of ASD – additional shutdown device). The SFR design taken for the analysis was the SFR(v2b-ST) reactor design, and the system code to be used was selected to be the SIM-SFR code. The transients chosen for evaluation of the efficiency of mitigation measures were the unprotected loss-of-flow (ULOF) and the unprotected loss-of-heat-sink (ULOHS)

  18. Parenteral Fish-Oil Lipid Emulsions in the Prevention of Severe Retinopathy of Prematurity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vayalthrikkovil, Sakeer; Bashir, Rani A; Rabi, Yacov; Amin, Harish; Spence, Jill-Marie; Robertson, Helen Lee; Lodha, Abhay

    2017-06-01

    Objective  Omega-3 fatty acids are vital for brain and retinal maturation. It is not clear if early use of ω-3 fatty acids in the form of fish-oil lipid emulsions (FLEs) prevents retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in preterm infants. The aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate whether early administration of parenteral FLEs reduces ROP requiring laser therapy or severe ROP ≥stage 3 in preterm infants. Methods  A literature search was performed to identify studies comparing parenteral FLEs with soybean-based lipid emulsions (SLEs) in preventing ROP. The main outcome was incidence of severe ROP or ROP requiring laser therapy. Results  Studies met the inclusion criteria (four RCTs and two observational studies). The pooled relative risk of ROP requiring laser therapy or severe ROP ≥ stage 3 in FLEs group was 0.47 [95% CI: 0.24-0.90] and 0.40 [95% CI: 0.22-0.76] in RCTs and observational studies, respectively. FLEs also reduced cholestasis; however, other secondary outcomes of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), sepsis, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), and mortality were similar. Conclusion  The use of FLEs may reduce the incidence of severe ROP or need for laser therapy in preterm infants. A large multicenter RCT is required to confirm this. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  19. Zika virus infection – a new epidemic threat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominika Pomorska

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus, like dengue and yellow fever viruses, is an RNA virus of the Flaviviridae family. The virus is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. On February 1, 2016, the World Health Organization declared Zika virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, similarly as in the case of Ebola virus in 2014 and bird flu virus in 2009. Although the Zika virus commonly causes a mild flu-like illness, it can cause congenital infections in the foetus. Based on the recommendations of the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee, the World Health Organization confirmed the possible relationship between the increase in the incidence of Zika virus infections and an increased number of infants with microcephaly. The incidence of microcephaly in Brazil in 2015 was 10–20 times higher than in previous years. A total of 691 cases of travel-related Zika infections have been reported in the United States of America, including 206 pregnant women – with 11 cases of sexually transmitted infection; Guillain–Barré syndrome complication was identified in 2 cases. There is an emphasis on measures to prevent mosquito bites and eliminate mosquito breeding sites in the countries affected by the epidemic. Due to both, Zika virus isolation from sperm and the growing number of sexually transmitted infections, measures to prevent sexual transmission of Zika virus have also been taken. There is an ongoing research to develop vaccine against the Zika virus, however, the estimated time of vaccine development is several years.

  20. How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain

    2016-06-01

    Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts.

  1. Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

  2. Chernobyl: Symptom of a worrying psychological epidemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretre, S.

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl psychological epidemic was already latent well prior to 1986 fully broke out after the accident, and continues to spread. It must be halted. But how can we counter a belief which has taken on the appearance of reality. It is the unknown, linked to alarming symbols, which sustains fear. To get beyond this state, radioactivity, ionizing radiation and nuclear energy have to become as ordinary as air travel and electronic calculators. In a climate of confidence and openness, it should be possible to successfully communicate several solid scientific reference points by first targeting teachers, doctors, and journalists. Thirty years ago, nuclear energy was presented as a universal panacea (clean, safe, and renewable). Now things have swung to the other extreme, and it is presented as diabolical. We have shifted from a symbolically white level to a symbolically black level, and both are misleading. It is high time to rejoin the world of facts, a world full of shades of gray

  3. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  4. Predicting St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics: lessons from recent, and not so recent, outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, J F

    2001-01-01

    St. Louis encephalitis virus was first identified as the cause of human disease in North America after a large urban epidemic in St. Louis, Missouri, during the summer of 1933. Since then, numerous outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis have occurred throughout the continent. In south Florida, a 1990 epidemic lasted from August 1990 through January 1991 and resulted in 226 clinical cases and 11 deaths in 28 counties. This epidemic severely disrupted normal activities throughout the southern half of the state for 5 months and adversely impacted tourism in the affected region. The accurate forecasting of mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics will help minimize their impact on urban and rural population centers. Epidemic predictability would help focus control efforts and public education about epidemic risks, transmission patterns, and elements of personal protection that reduce the probability of arboviral infection. Research associated with arboviral outbreaks has provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with epidemic prediction. The purpose of this paper is to review lessons from past arboviral epidemics and determine how these observations might aid our ability to predict and respond to future outbreaks.

  5. Reduced frequency and severity of residential fires following delivery of fire prevention education by on-duty fire fighters: cluster randomized controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, Joseph; Garis, Len; Plecas, Darryl; Jennings, Charles

    2012-04-01

    In 2008, Surrey Fire Services, British Columbia, commenced a firefighter-delivered, door-to-door fire-prevention education and smoke alarm examination/installation initiative with the intention of reducing the frequency and severity of residential structure fires in the City of Surrey. High-risk zones within the city were identified and 18,473 home visits were undertaken across seven temporal delivery cohorts (13.8% of non-apartment dwellings in the city). The frequency and severity of fires pre- and post- the home visit intervention was examined in comparison to randomized high-risk cluster controls. Overall, the frequency of fires was found to have reduced in the city overall, however, the reduction in the intervention cohorts was significantly larger than for controls. Furthermore, when fires did occur within the intervention cohorts, smoke detectors were activated more frequently and the fires were confined to the object of origin more often post-home visits. No equivalent pattern was observed for the cluster control. On-duty fire fighters can reduce the frequency and severity of residential fires through targeted, door-to-door distribution of fire prevention education in high-risk areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  7. Sex differences in the prevalence, symptoms, and associated features of migraine, probable migraine and other severe headache: results of the American Migraine Prevalence and Prevention (AMPP) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buse, Dawn C; Loder, Elizabeth W; Gorman, Jennifer A; Stewart, Walter F; Reed, Michael L; Fanning, Kristina M; Serrano, Daniel; Lipton, Richard B

    2013-09-01

    The strikingly higher prevalence of migraine in females compared with males is one of the hallmarks of migraine. A large global body of evidence exists on the sex differences in the prevalence of migraine with female to male ratios ranging from 2:1 to 3:1 and peaking in midlife. Some data are available on sex differences in associated symptoms, headache-related disability and impairment, and healthcare resource utilization in migraine. Few data are available on corresponding sex differences in probable migraine (PM) and other severe headache (ie, nonmigraine-spectrum severe headache). Gaining a clear understanding of sex differences in a range of severe headache disorders may help differentiate the range of headache types. Herein, we compare sexes on prevalence and a range of clinical variables for migraine, PM, and other severe headache in a large sample from the US population. This study analyzed data from the 2004 American Migraine Prevalence and Prevention Study. Total and demographic-stratified sex-specific, prevalence estimates of headache subtypes (migraine, PM, and other severe headache) are reported. Log-binomial models are used to calculate sex-specific adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals for each across demographic strata. A smoothed sex prevalence ratio (female to male) figure is presented for migraine and PM. One hundred sixty-two thousand seven hundred fifty-six individuals aged 12 and older responded to the 2004 American Migraine Prevalence and Prevention Study survey (64.9% response rate). Twenty-eight thousand two hundred sixty-one (17.4%) reported "severe headache" in the preceding year (23.5% of females and 10.6% of males), 11.8% met International Classification of Headache Disorders-2 criteria for migraine (17.3% of females and 5.7% of males), 4.6% met criteria for PM (5.3% of females and 3.9% of males), and 1.0% were categorized with other severe headache (0.9% of females and 1.0% of males). Sex differences were observed in

  8. A qualitative view of the HIV epidemic in coastal Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckman, Adam L; Wilson, Magdalena M; Prabhu, Vishaal; Soekoe, Nicola; Mata, Humberto; Grau, Lauretta E

    2016-01-01

    In 2013 approximately 37,000 people were living with HIV in Ecuador (prevalence 0.4%), representing a generalized epidemic where most new infections arise from sexual interactions in the general population. Studies that examine attitudes towards people living with HIV (PLWH), individual risk perception of acquiring HIV amongst Ecuadorians, and the ways in which levels of risk perception may affect risk behaviors are lacking. This qualitative study aimed to fill this gap in the literature by investigating these issues in the rural, coastal community of Manglaralto, Ecuador, which has among the highest incidence of HIV in Ecuador. We conducted interviews with 15 patients at Manglaralto Hospital. Analysis of interview transcripts revealed widespread negative attitudes towards PLWH, prevalent risk behaviors such as multiple sex partners and lack of condom use, and low individual risk-perception of contracting HIV. These findings underscore the need for increased efforts to prevent further growth of the HIV epidemic in Ecuador.

  9. A qualitative view of the HIV epidemic in coastal Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam L. Beckman

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In 2013 approximately 37,000 people were living with HIV in Ecuador (prevalence 0.4%, representing a generalized epidemic where most new infections arise from sexual interactions in the general population. Studies that examine attitudes towards people living with HIV (PLWH, individual risk perception of acquiring HIV amongst Ecuadorians, and the ways in which levels of risk perception may affect risk behaviors are lacking. This qualitative study aimed to fill this gap in the literature by investigating these issues in the rural, coastal community of Manglaralto, Ecuador, which has among the highest incidence of HIV in Ecuador. We conducted interviews with 15 patients at Manglaralto Hospital. Analysis of interview transcripts revealed widespread negative attitudes towards PLWH, prevalent risk behaviors such as multiple sex partners and lack of condom use, and low individual risk-perception of contracting HIV. These findings underscore the need for increased efforts to prevent further growth of the HIV epidemic in Ecuador.

  10. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  11. Cannabinoids prevent the differential long-term effects of exposure to severe stress on hippocampal- and amygdala-dependent memory and plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoshan, Noa; Segev, Amir; Abush, Hila; Mizrachi Zer-Aviv, Tomer; Akirav, Irit

    2017-10-01

    Exposure to excessive or uncontrolled stress is a major factor associated with various diseases including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The consequences of exposure to trauma are affected not only by aspects of the event itself, but also by the frequency and severity of trauma reminders. It was suggested that in PTSD, hippocampal-dependent memory is compromised while amygdala-dependent memory is strengthened. Several lines of evidence support the role of the endocannabinoid (eCB) system as a modulator of the stress response. In this study we aimed to examine cannabinoids modulation of the long-term effects (i.e., 1 month) of exposure to a traumatic event on memory and plasticity in the hippocampus and amygdala. Following exposure to the shock and reminders model of PTSD in an inhibitory avoidance light-dark apparatus rats demonstrated: (i) enhanced fear retrieval and impaired inhibitory extinction (Ext), (ii) no long-term potentiation (LTP) in the CA1, (iii) impaired hippocampal-dependent short-term memory in the object location task, (iv) enhanced LTP in the amygdala, and (v) enhanced amygdala-dependent conditioned taste aversion memory. The cannabinoid CB1/2 receptor agonist WIN55-212,2 (0.5mg/kg, i.p.) and the fatty acid amide hydrolase (FAAH) inhibitor URB597 (0.3mg/kg, i.p.), administered 2 hr after shock exposure prevented these opposing effects on hippocampal- and amygdala-dependent processes. Moreover, the effects of WIN55-212,2 and URB597 on Ext and acoustic startle were prevented by co-administration of a low dose of the CB1 receptor antagonist AM251 (0.5mg/kg, i.p.), suggesting that the preventing effects of both drugs are mediated by CB1 receptors. Exposure to shock and reminders increased CB1 receptor levels in the CA1 and basolateral amygdala 1 month after shock exposure and this increase was also prevented by administering WIN55-212,2 or URB597. Taken together, these findings suggest the involvement of the eCB system, and specifically CB1

  12. Red peppers with moderate and severe pungency prevent the memory deficit and hepatic insulin resistance in diabetic rats with Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hye Jeong; Kwon, Dae Young; Kim, Min Jung; Kang, Suna; Moon, Na Rang; Daily, James W; Park, Sunmin

    2015-01-01

    Dementia induced by β-amyloid accumulation impairs peripheral glucose homeostasis, but red pepper extract improves glucose homeostasis. We therefore evaluated whether long-term oral consumption of different red pepper extracts improves cognitive dysfunction and glucose homeostasis in type 2 diabetic rats with β-amyloid-induced dementia. Male diabetic rats received hippocampal CA1 infusions of β-amyloid (25-35) (AD) or β-amyloid (35-25, non-plaque forming), at a rate of 3.6 nmol/day for 14 days (Non-AD). AD rats were divided into four dietary groups receiving either 1% lyophilized 70% ethanol extracts of either low, moderate and severe pungency red peppers (AD-LP, AD-MP, and AD-SP) or 1% dextrin (AD-CON) in Western diets (43% energy as fat). The ascending order of control memory deficit measured by passive avoidance test and water maze test. Furthermore, the accumulation of β-amyloid induced glucose intolerance, although serum insulin levels were elevated during the late phase of oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). All of the red pepper extracts prevented the glucose intolerance in AD rats. Consistent with OGTT results, during euglycemic hyperinulinemic clamp glucose infusion rates were lower in AD-CON than Non-AD-CON with no difference in whole body glucose uptake. Hepatic glucose output at the hyperinsulinemic state was increased in AD-CON. β-amyloid accumulation exacerbated hepatic insulin resistance, but all red pepper extract treatments reversed the insulin resistance in AD rats. The extracts of moderate and severe red peppers were found to prevent the memory deficit and exacerbation of insulin resistance by blocking tau phosphorylation and β-amyloid accumulation in diabetic rats with experimentally induced Alzheimer's-like dementia. These results suggest that red pepper consumption might be an effective intervention for preventing age-related memory deficit.

  13. [The HIV/AIDS epidemic and women in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Río-Zolezzi, A; Liguori, A L; Magis-Rodríguez, C; Valdespino-Gómez, J L; García-García, M de L; Sepúlveda-Amor, J

    1995-01-01

    This study presents an analysis of AIDS cases and seroprevalence of HIV infection among Mexican women, from the onset of the epidemic through June 1994, as well as the analysis of the social and cultural factors that put women in a powerless situation regarding the adoption of preventive measures. Since 1985, when the first AIDS cases among women were reported in Mexico and until June 1, 1994, a total of 2,767 cases have been reported, representing 14.8% of the total number of cases. The first cases of AIDS among women were associated to infected blood transfusions; however, in 1986, heterosexually transmitted cases began to appear. Currently, only 35% of newly reported AIDS cases are associated to blood transfusions while 64% of them are related to heterosexual transmission. In fact, two epidemics are evident: one transmitted through blood, showing a downward trend (duplication time 45 months), and a second one, heterosexually transmitted, increasing twice as fast (duplication time 27 months). The latter is expected to dominate AIDS epidemiology among women in the future. In general, women are more vulnerable to HIV/AIDS biologically, but also socially and culturally. Women's economic, social and cultural subordination to their sexual partners results in a situation that makes it difficult for them to assess their infection risk and even more, to negotiate taking preventive measures. This situation is even more disadvantageous to rural women and, together with the recent trend of the AIDS epidemic to ruralization and with internal and international migration (temporary work force migration to the USA), can result in deep demographic and social effects. We conclude that it is necessary to work on the design and assessment of preventive measures under women's control, that empower them to protect themselves even without their partner's awareness. Also, it is necessary to promote sexual education among young heterosexual couples on how to talk about sexual issues and

  14. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  15. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  17. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  18. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  19. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  20. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  1. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  2. Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi-Tafreshi, N.

    2016-04-01

    The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer overlapping, but we assume that each layer is random and locally loopless. Infection with one of the diseases increases the probability of getting infected with the other. Using the generating function method, we calculate exactly the fraction of individuals infected with both diseases (so-called coinfected clusters) in the stationary state, as well as the epidemic spreading thresholds and the phase diagram of the model. With increasing cooperation, we observe a tricritical point and the type of transition changes from continuous to hybrid. Finally, we compare the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

  3. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  4. Male Partner Risk Behaviors Are Associated With Reactive Rapid HIV Antibody Tests Among Pregnant Mexican Women: Implications for Prevention of Vertical and Sexual HIV Transmission in Concentrated HIV Epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero, Estela; Kendall, Tamil

    2015-01-01

    Mexico's policies on antenatal HIV testing are contradictory, and little is known about social and behavioral characteristics that increase pregnant Mexican women's risks of acquiring HIV. We analyzed the association between risk behaviors reported by pregnant women for themselves and their male partners, and women's rapid HIV antibody test results from a large national sample. Three quarters of pregnant women with a reactive test did not report risk behaviors for themselves and one third did not report risk behaviors for themselves or their male partners. In the retrospective case-control analysis, other than reporting multiple sexual partners, reactive pregnant women reported risk behaviors did not differ from nonreactive women's behaviors. However, reactive pregnant women were significantly more likely to have reported risk behaviors for male partners. Our findings support universal offer of antenatal HIV testing and suggest that HIV prevention for women should focus on reducing risk of HIV acquisition within stable relationships. Copyright © 2015 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Efficiency of two constructs called "fear of disease" and "perceived severity of disease" on the prevention of gastric cancer: Application of protection motivation theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghiani-Moghadam, Mohamad Hosein; Seyedi-Andi, Seyed Jalil; Shokri-Shirvani, Javad; Khafri, Sorayya; Ghadimi, Reza; Parsian, Hadi

    2015-01-01

    Among all cancers, malignancies of gastrointestinal tract are the most common cancer among Iranian population. Dietary behavior is thought to be the most important risk factor in gastric cancer. Fear and perceived severity are two important constructs of the protection motivation theory (PMT). Despite the evidence of the impact of these two constructs in modifying dietary habits against gastric cancer, their efficiency is not well established. Therefore, the present study was designed to determine the efficiency of the mentioned constructs. This cross-sectional study was performed on 360 participants (180 males and 180 females) aged over 30 years old who presented to health centers in Babol, Iran in 2014. They were selected by a cluster sampling method in a population covered by health centers in Babol. Data collection was done using a questionnaire with acceptable reliability and validity, designed by a researcher based on two constructs of protection motivation theory. The data were analyzed by SPSS Version 20 using descriptive and analytical statistics such as ANOVA, linear and logistic regression analysis. The participants who entered in the study achieved 38.6 and 69.7% of the scores of fear and perceived severity, respectively. There was a significant difference between perceived severity with level of education (pprotection motivation theory with predicting 38% of the variance of nutritional high risk behaviors had an effective role against gastric cancer and may help in the design and implementation of educational programs for the prevention of gastric cancer.

  6. Temporal analysis and fungicide management strategies to control mango anthracnose epidemics in Guerrero, Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Monteon Ojeda, Abraham; Mora Aguilera, José Antonio; Villegas Monter, Ángel; Nava Diaz, Cristian; Hernández Castro, Elías; Otero-Colina, Gabriel; Hernández Morales, Javier

    2012-01-01

    The temporal progress of anthracnose (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) epidemics was studied in mango (Mangifera indica) orchards treated with fungicides from different chemical groups, mode of action, and application sequences in two regions of contrasting climates (sub-humid and dry tropics) in Guerrero, Mexico. Full flowering, initial setting, and 8-15mm Ø fruits were identified as critical stages for infection. Epidemics started 20-26 days after swollen buds, and maximum severity was attai...

  7. Vitamin D and Calcium supplementation prevents severe falls in elderly community dwelling residents: a pragmatic population-based 3-year intervention study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Erik Roj; Mosekilde, Leif; Foldspang, Anders

    2005-01-01

    Background and aims: We evaluated the effect of two programs for the prevention of falls leading to acute hospital admission in a population of elderly community-dwelling Danish residents. Methods: This was a factorial, pragmatic, intervention study. We included 9605 community-dwelling city......, or no intervention. Results: The Calcium and Vitamin D program was followed by 50.3% and the Environmental and Health Program by 46.4%. According to a multivariate analysis including age, marital status and intervention program, female residents who followed the Calcium and Vitamin D Program had a 12% risk reduction...... in severe falls (RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.79-0.98; pfalls leading to acute hospitalization in communitydwelling elderly females in a northern European region known to be deficient in vitamin D....

  8. Evidence from epidemic appraisals in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idoteyin O. Ezirim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Although HIV prevalence has increased in most-at-risk populations (MARPs across Nigeria, effective programming was difficult because Nigeria lacked information for prevention programmes to target interventions that maximise coverage and cost effectiveness. Epidemic appraisals (EA were conducted in eight states to provide evidence for the planning, implementation and co-ordination of prevention interventions. Component 1: Mapping determined the size, typology and locations of MARPs. Component 2: Venue profiling identified and profiled venues where general populations engaged in high-risk behaviours. Component 3: Rural appraisals provided insights into risk behaviours and sexual networking in villages. States used mapping results to prioritise areas with a MARP coverage of 70% – 80% and then scale up interventions for non-brothel-based female sex workers (FSWs instead of focusing on brothel-based FSWs. The eight states prioritisedf unding for the high-coverage areas to ensure a minimum coverage level of 70% – 80% of MARPs was reached. The refocused resources led to cost efficiencies. Applying venue profiling results, six states implemented interventions at bars and night clubs – previously not covered. States also maximised intervention coverage for high-risk general populations; this led to the use of resources for general population interventions in a focused way rather than across an entire state. States focused on condom programmes in rural areas. EA results provided the evidence for focusing interventions for high MARP coverage as well as forhigh-risk general populations. The states applied the results and rapidly refocused their interventions, increasing the likelihood of having an impact on HIV transmission in those states. Nigeria is now implementing EAs in the remaining 29 states to effect national-level impact.

  9. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Liu

    Full Text Available The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

  10. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

  11. Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)], E-mail: bhwang@ustc.edu.cn; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael [Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)], E-mail: ensmall@polyu.edu.hk; Zhou Changsong [Department of Physics, Centre for Nonlinear Studies, and Beijing-Hong Kong-Singapore Joint Centre for Nonlinear and Complex Systems (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (China)

    2010-02-15

    It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

  12. Competing spreading processes on multiplex networks: awareness and epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2014-07-01

    Epidemiclike spreading processes on top of multilayered interconnected complex networks reveal a rich phase diagram of intertwined competition effects. A recent study by the authors [C. Granell et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 128701 (2013).] presented an analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the spreading of information awareness to prevent infection, on top of multiplex networks. The results in the case in which awareness implies total immunization to the disease revealed the existence of a metacritical point at which the critical onset of the epidemics starts, depending on completion of the awareness process. Here we present a full analysis of these critical properties in the more general scenario where the awareness spreading does not imply total immunization, and where infection does not imply immediate awareness of it. We find the critical relation between the two competing processes for a wide spectrum of parameters representing the interaction between them. We also analyze the consequences of a massive broadcast of awareness (mass media) on the final outcome of the epidemic incidence. Importantly enough, the mass media make the metacritical point disappear. The results reveal that the main finding, i.e., existence of a metacritical point, is rooted in the competition principle and holds for a large set of scenarios.

  13. Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael; Zhou Changsong

    2010-01-01

    It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

  14. [Epidemics and diseases during the Independence period in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viesca-Treviño, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The epidemics and endemic diseases in Mexico were not a problem before the Independence period. Hunger was less than in the past. The 1806 Influenza epidemics had been forgotten. Measles was considered a benign illness. In 1810, there was an increase in the number of cases of black vomit in Veracruz. Sixty percent of 541 hospitalized patients die of the disease. In 1812, an outbreak of yellow fever spread from Veracruz to Jalapa accompanying the movement of troops and killing over 300 soldiers of the Castilla's Battalion. The appearance of petechial fever, maybe typhus marketed in 1813 the onset of the most important epidemics. The preceding was the indirect effect of war: diseases of prisons and military quarters which became overwhelming in times where the movements of troops and of important groups of populations along with crowing, loss homes, hunger and bad hygiene habits. There was also Influenza or "pestilent cold." Measures of detection and quarantine were taken. "Naranjate" mixed with tartaric cremor was used against fever. Fumigation with nitric acid and burners, where they incinerated gun powder were among the health protection policies. It is noteworthy the advance and relief provided by the introduction of smallpox vaccine, the only preventive mean useful against smallpox which was a breakthrough in public health.

  15. Ethics, health policy, and Zika: From emergency to global epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamrozik, Euzebiusz; Selgelid, Michael J

    2018-05-01

    Zika virus was recognised in 2016 as an important vector-borne cause of congenital malformations and Guillain-Barré syndrome, during a major epidemic in Latin America, centred in Northeastern Brazil. The WHO and Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO), with partner agencies, initiated a coordinated global response including public health intervention and urgent scientific research, as well as ethical analysis as a vital element of policy design. In this paper, we summarise the major ethical issues raised during the Zika epidemic, highlighting the PAHO ethics guidance and the role of ethics in emergency responses, before turning to ethical issues that are yet to be resolved. Zika raises traditional bioethical issues related to reproduction, prenatal diagnosis of serious malformations and unjust disparities in health outcomes. But the epidemic has also highlighted important issues of growing interest in public health ethics, such as the international spread of infectious disease; the central importance of reproductive healthcare in preventing maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality; diagnostic and reporting biases; vector control and the links between vectors, climate change, and disparities in the global burden of disease. Finally, there are controversies regarding Zika vaccine research and eventual deployment. Zika virus was a neglected disease for over 50 years before the outbreak in Brazil. As it continues to spread, public health agencies should promote gender equity and disease control efforts in Latin America, while preparing for the possibility of a global epidemic. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  16. The potential role of sports psychology in the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Vincent; Davis, Carolyn

    2013-06-01

    Sports psychologists play an important role in enhancing performance among athletes. In conjunction with team physicians, they can also shed light on psychological disorders common in athletes, such as mood and eating disorders, and overtraining syndrome. Sports psychologists can also lend their expertise to assist with injury prevention and recovery and compliance issues. Sports psychology has a role in helping to reverse the growing obesity epidemic among school-aged children. These professionals, working with coaches, can increase children's levels of physical activity. Cognitive-behavioral techniques could lead to enhanced enjoyment, increased participation, improved school performance, and a reduction in obesity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Why Prevention? Why Now?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabachnick, Joan

    2013-01-01

    In 1995, the American Medical Association declared sexual abuse a "silent, violent epidemic." Since that declaration, there has been a growing acceptance and awareness of the need for a broader public health approach to preventing sexual violence. However, it is only recently that individuals and organizations are beginning to look at…

  18. The rise and fall of rabies in Japan: A quantitative history of rabies epidemics in Osaka Prefecture, 1914-1933.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiko Kurosawa

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Japan has been free from rabies since the 1950s. However, during the early 1900s several large-scale epidemics spread throughout the country. Here we investigate the dynamics of these epidemics between 1914 and 1933 in Osaka Prefecture, using archival data including newspapers. The association between dog rabies cases and human population density was investigated using Mixed-effects models and epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0, the incubation and infectious period and the serial interval were estimated. A total of 4,632 animal rabies cases were reported, mainly in dogs (99.0%, 4,584 cases during two epidemics from 1914 to 1921, and 1922 to 1933 respectively. The second epidemic was larger (3,705 cases than the first (879 cases, but had a lower R0 (1.50 versus 2.42. The first epidemic was controlled through capture of stray dogs and tethering of pet dogs. Dog mass vaccination began in 1923, with campaigns to capture stray dogs. Rabies in Osaka Prefecture was finally eliminated in 1933. A total of 3,805 rabid dog-bite injuries, and 75 human deaths were reported. The relatively low incidence of human rabies, high ratio of post-exposure vaccines (PEP and bite injuries by rabid dogs (minimum 6.2 to maximum 73.6, between 1924 and 1928, and a decline in the proportion of bite victims that developed hydrophobia over time (slope = -0.29, se = 3, p < 0.001, indicated that increased awareness and use of PEP might have prevented disease. Although significantly more dog rabies cases were detected at higher human population densities (slope = 0.66, se = 0.03, p < 0.01, there were fewer dog rabies cases detected per capita (slope = -0.34, se = 0.03, p < 0.01. We suggest that the combination of mass vaccination and restriction of dog movement enabled by strong legislation was key to eliminate rabies. Moreover, the prominent role of the media in both reporting rabies cases and efforts to control the disease likely contributed

  19. Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: An essential tool where the burden is greatest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Ann M.; Herbeck, Joshua T.; Brown, Andrew Leigh; Kellam, Paul; de Oliveira, Tulio; Pillay, Deenan; Fraser, Christophe; Cohen, Myron S.

    2014-01-01

    Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population-level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics, and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics, and suggest potential solutions. PMID:24977473

  20. Culture, myths and panic: Three decades and beyond with an HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chingwaru, Walter; Vidmar, Jerneja

    2018-02-01

    Zimbabwe is going through a generalised acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. The first five years of the epidemic (1985-1990) were characterised by lack of medicines against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and an exponential increase in prevalence (65-fold) and incidence (13-fold), which were fuelled by high-risk sexual behaviour. The high HIV prevalence, mortality and stigma yielded great fear and panic in the population, which are thought to have led to confusion and hopelessness, and, in turn, increased risky sexual behaviour. The country's government and civil society embarked on HIV awareness campaigns that are claimed to have played a central role in slowing down the epidemic since the mid-2000s. HIV-related mortality then fell by 70% between 2003 and 2013, which is attributed to high uptake of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (95%) prophylaxis. However, the epidemic has been characterised by a low paediatric ART coverage (35% in 2011 to 46.12% in 2013). Year 2014 saw an increase in adolescent and young adult HIV prevalence, which may be signalling a rebound of the epidemic. A more holistic approach which deals with the epidemic in its socio-political context is required to effectively lower the country's HIV burden.

  1. From a global crisis to the 'end of AIDS': New epidemics of signification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenworthy, Nora; Thomann, Matthew; Parker, Richard

    2017-08-22

    In the past decade, discourses about AIDS have taken a remarkable, and largely unquestioned, turn. Whereas mobilisations for treatment scale-up during the 2000s were premised on perceptions of an 'epidemic out of control', we have repeatedly been informed in more recent years that an end to AIDS is immanent. This new discourse and its resulting policies are motivated by post-recession financial pressures, a changing field of global institutions, and shifting health and development priorities. These shifts also reflect a biomedical triumphalism in HIV prevention and treatment, whereby shorter term, privatised, technological, and 'cost-effective' interventions are promoted over long-term support for antiretroviral treatment. To explore these changes, we utilise Treichler's [(1987). How to have theory in an epidemic: Cultural chronicles of AIDS. Durham, NC: Duke University Press] view of AIDS as an 'epidemic of signification' to develop a review of 'End of AIDS' discourses in recent years. We use this review to investigate the political and philanthropic interests served by efforts to rebrand and re-signify the epidemic. We also hold up these discourses against the realities of treatment access in resource-poor countries, where 'Ending AIDS' has not heralded the end of an epidemic per se, but rather the end of external support for treatment programmes, highlighting new difficulties for sustaining treatment in this new era of the epidemic.

  2. PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retno Widyaningrum

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

  3. Addressing Future Epidemics: Historical Human Rights Lessons from the AIDS Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambar Mehta

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Ebola epidemic in West Africa sparked many ethical and polarizing public health questions on how to adequately control transmission of the virus. These deliberations had and will continue to influence patients, healthcare workers, public perceptions of disease, and governmental responses. Such extensive and potential ramifications warranted an analysis of prior epidemics to sufficiently inform policy makers and prepare them and other authorities for future epidemics. We analyzed how the general public, medical institutions, federal government, and patients themselves responded during the early stages of the AIDS pandemic in two different countries and cultures, the United States and India. Discussion: Our analysis identified four key findings pertaining to the human rights of patients and healthcare workers and to the crucial roles of the government and medical community. The first demands that authoritative officials acknowledge the presence of high-risk behaviors and properly educate the public without stigmatizing groups of individuals. For this task, the medical community and federal government must form and display to the public a respectful and collaborative partnership towards battling the epidemic. These two synergistic endeavors will then allow appropriate officials to implement effective, yet civil, interventions for limiting transmission. Finally, the same officials must ensure that their interventions maintain the human rights of high-risk populations and of healthcare workers. Conclusions: Applying these findings to future epidemics of infectious diseases can aid policy makers in navigating complicated ethical and public health questions, and help prevent them from repeating past mistakes in handling epidemics.

  4. Emerging epidemic of type 2 diabetes in youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbloom, A L; Joe, J R; Young, R S; Winter, W E

    1999-02-01

    This review considers the epidemiologic evidence of an increasing incidence of type 2 diabetes in youth, the classification and diagnostic issues related to diabetes in young populations, pathophysiologic mechanisms relevant to the increasing incidence, the role of genetics and environment, and the community challenge for prevention and treatment. Type 2 diabetes in youth has been recognized to be frequent in populations of native North Americans and to comprise some 30 percent of new cases of diabetes in the 2nd decade of life, largely accounted for by minority populations and associated with obesity. Among Japanese schoolchildren, type 2 diabetes is seven times more common than type 1, and its incidence has increased more than 30-fold over the past 20 years, concomitant with changing food patterns and increasing obesity rates. The forms of diabetes seen in children and youth include typical type 1, occurring in all races; type 2, seen predominantly in minority youth; atypical diabetes, seen as an autosomal dominantly transmitted disorder in African-American populations; and maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY), seen rarely and only in Caucasians. Of the nonautoimmune forms of diabetes seen in youth, only type 2 diabetes is increasing in incidence. Proper classification requires consideration of onset (acute/severe versus insidious), ethnicity, family history, presence of obesity, and if necessary, studies of diabetes related autoimmunity. Insulin resistance predicts the development of diabetes in Pima Indians, in offspring of parents with type 2 diabetes, and in other high-risk populations. African-American children and youth have greater insulin responses during glucose tolerance testing and during hyperglycemic clamp study than do whites. There is also evidence of altered beta-cell function preceding the development of hyperglycemia. Of particular interest is the evidence that abnormal fetal and infantile nutrition is associated with the development of

  5. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  6. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  7. [Chikungunya, La Réunion and Mayotte, 2005-2006: an epidemic without a story?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flahault, Antoine; Aumont, Gilles; Boisson, Véronique; de Lamballerile, Xavier; Favier, François; Fontenille, Didier; Gaüzère, Bernard-Alex; Journeaux, Sophie; Lotteau, Vincent; Paupy, Christophe; Sanquer, Marie-Anne; Setbon, Michel

    2007-01-01

    Many triggering factors for onset of emerging infectious diseases are now recognised, such as: globalisation, demographic increase, population movements, international trade, urbanisation, forest destruction, climate changes, loss in biodiversity, and extreme life conditions such as poverty, famine and war. Epidemic burden is often leading to disasters, in terms of human losses, as well as economic, political or social consequences. These outbreaks may jeopardize within a few weeks or months, industry, trade, or tourism. While dengue and its most severe forms (hemorrhagic and shock syndrome) is spreading all over the tropical world, another arbovirosis, chikungunya disease dramatically spread in Indian Ocean islands where 30 to 75% of population were infected in 2005 and 2006, and then extended its progression towards India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives islands with more than a million people infected with the East-African strain, replacing the former Asian strain which was known to prevail more than 30 years ago in India. Patients experience sequelae with disability, work loss, and rarely severe outcome recently identified in La Réunion and Mayotte (French overseas territories). No country, no part of the world may consider itself as protected against such events. However, consequences of emerging or re-emerging diseases are more and more unacceptable when they impact the poorest countries of the world. Viruses, bacteria, as well as wild animals, birds, or arthropods are not stopped by borders. It is time now to promote barriers against infectious diseases, including prevention, anticipation, disease surveillance and research. This is not only for humanitarian reasons, but also for contributing to a sustainable development with equity for worldwide population. This report presents comprehensive actions taken in 2006 for tracing the epidemic and mobilise research, as requested to the task force set up by the Prime Minister by March 20, 2006.

  8. Zika Virus: What Have We Learnt Since the Start of the Recent Epidemic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan-Carlos Saiz

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Zika is a viral disease transmitted mainly by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. In recent years, it has expanded geographically, changing from an endemic mosquito-borne disease across equatorial Asia and Africa, to an epidemic disease causing large outbreaks in several areas of the world. With the recent Zika virus (ZIKV outbreaks in the Americas, the disease has become a focus of attention of public health agencies and of the international research community, especially due to an association with neurological disorders in adults and to the severe neurological and ophthalmological abnormalities found in fetuses and newborns of mothers exposed to ZIKV during pregnancy. A large number of studies have been published in the last 3 years, revealing the structure of the virus, how it is transmitted and how it affects human cells. Many different animal models have been developed, which recapitulate several features of ZIKV disease and its neurological consequences. Moreover, several vaccine candidates are now in active preclinical development, and three of them have already entered phase I clinical trials. Likewise, many different compounds targeting viral and cellular components are being tested in in vitro and in experimental animal models. This review aims to discuss the current state of this rapidly growing literature from a multidisciplinary perspective, as well as to present an overview of the public health response to Zika and of the perspectives for the prevention and treatment of this disease.

  9. Zika Virus: What Have We Learnt Since the Start of the Recent Epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saiz, Juan-Carlos; Martín-Acebes, Miguel A.; Bueno-Marí, Rubén; Salomón, Oscar D.; Villamil-Jiménez, Luis C.; Heukelbach, Jorg; Alencar, Carlos H.; Armstrong, Paul K.; Ortiga-Carvalho, Tania M.; Mendez-Otero, Rosalia; Rosado-de-Castro, Paulo H.; Pimentel-Coelho, Pedro M.

    2017-01-01

    Zika is a viral disease transmitted mainly by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. In recent years, it has expanded geographically, changing from an endemic mosquito-borne disease across equatorial Asia and Africa, to an epidemic disease causing large outbreaks in several areas of the world. With the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks in the Americas, the disease has become a focus of attention of public health agencies and of the international research community, especially due to an association with neurological disorders in adults and to the severe neurological and ophthalmological abnormalities found in fetuses and newborns of mothers exposed to ZIKV during pregnancy. A large number of studies have been published in the last 3 years, revealing the structure of the virus, how it is transmitted and how it affects human cells. Many different animal models have been developed, which recapitulate several features of ZIKV disease and its neurological consequences. Moreover, several vaccine candidates are now in active preclinical development, and three of them have already entered phase I clinical trials. Likewise, many different compounds targeting viral and cellular components are being tested in in vitro and in experimental animal models. This review aims to discuss the current state of this rapidly growing literature from a multidisciplinary perspective, as well as to present an overview of the public health response to Zika and of the perspectives for the prevention and treatment of this disease. PMID:28878742

  10. Descriptive epidemiology of typhoid fever during an epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polonsky, Jonathan A; Martínez-Pino, Isabel; Nackers, Fabienne; Chonzi, Prosper; Manangazira, Portia; Van Herp, Michel; Maes, Peter; Porten, Klaudia; Luquero, Francisco J

    2014-01-01

    Typhoid fever remains a significant public health problem in developing countries. In October 2011, a typhoid fever epidemic was declared in Harare, Zimbabwe - the fourth enteric infection epidemic since 2008. To orient control activities, we described the epidemiology and spatiotemporal clustering of the epidemic in Dzivaresekwa and Kuwadzana, the two most affected suburbs of Harare. A typhoid fever case-patient register was analysed to describe the epidemic. To explore clustering, we constructed a dataset comprising GPS coordinates of case-patient residences and randomly sampled residential locations (spatial controls). The scale and significance of clustering was explored with Ripley K functions. Cluster locations were determined by a random labelling technique and confirmed using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. We analysed data from 2570 confirmed and suspected case-patients, and found significant spatiotemporal clustering of typhoid fever in two non-overlapping areas, which appeared to be linked to environmental sources. Peak relative risk was more than six times greater than in areas lying outside the cluster ranges. Clusters were identified in similar geographical ranges by both random labelling and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. The spatial scale at which typhoid fever clustered was highly localised, with significant clustering at distances up to 4.5 km and peak levels at approximately 3.5 km. The epicentre of infection transmission shifted from one cluster to the other during the course of the epidemic. This study demonstrated highly localised clustering of typhoid fever during an epidemic in an urban African setting, and highlights the importance of spatiotemporal analysis for making timely decisions about targetting prevention and control activities and reinforcing treatment during epidemics. This approach should be integrated into existing surveillance systems to facilitate early detection of epidemics and identify their spatial range.

  11. Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason D Bishai

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/. Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

  12. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  13. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  14. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  15. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  16. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  17. [Characteristic situation on prevention of nosocomial infection in the hospital for the severely multi-disabled--experiences in care and treatment of 4 kinds of viral hepatitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machida, Y; Tanaka, H; Yano, Y; Yano, T; Yoshida, K

    1997-12-01

    We experienced Hepatitis A, B, C and fulminant hepatitis due to Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) in our hospital for the severely multi-disabled (SMD) who had both severe motor and intellectual disabilities, and some of whom might be further complicated by blindness and/or deafness. In this hospital, 100 SMDs are hospitalized. Case 1: The disabled, 25 year old male, was transmitted Hepatitis A from a nurse. Case 2: The disabled, 60 year old female carrier of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) who has been cared for more than 10 years. Case 3: The disabled, 46 year old male carrier of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) (RNA type 3), has been cared for more than 4 years. Case 4: The disabled, 39 year old male, had a fever of 39 degrees C for 9 days and suddenly died. He was diagnosed as fulminant hepatitis due to HSV-1 by necropsy. The hospitals for SMD are characteristic in prevention of nosocomial infections; 1) The disabled infected is not aware of the fact that he or she is the source of infection and that the other disabled living with him or her are in risk of infection, because of their severe mental condition. 2) All of the disabled need complete or incomplete helps for activities of daily life (ADL), so that the disabled who is the carrier of some pathogen constantly gives risk of infection to staffs, including medical staffs (doctor, nurse and therapist), psychologist and helpers by bloody secretion from wounds, saliva, urine, feces as well as menstrual blood. 3) If a carrier of some pathogen is hospitalized, the staffs should serve under risk of infection involving blood-mediated infectious disease for many years, because SMDs are permitted lifelong stay in the hospitals for SMD, which also play a role of care house or institution, by public expense in Japan. In case of an outbreak of Hepatitis A, nosocomial infection ended in the original case (a nurse), another nurse and a case of the disabled by general treatment and care against communicable diseases of the digestive

  18. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  19. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  20. The psychiatric epidemic in the American workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodsky, C M

    1988-01-01

    Several characteristics help distinguish MPI in the workplace from illness outbreaks due to physical causes: no laboratory or physical findings confirming an specific organic cause evidence of specific physical or psychological stressors victims are mostly women and those of lower socioeconomic status in the workplace hyperventilation-type symptoms are prominent apparent transmission by audiovisual cues rapid spread of the illness followed by rapid remission of symptoms, unless symptoms are fixed by physicians and litigation benign morbidity If a physical or chemical cause of the illness is not obvious and if episodes recur, the illness remains a mystery and the workplace becomes a breeding ground for anxiety, confusion, fear, and rumor. Economic pressures to resume normal operations are counteracted by fears that an environmental contaminant still exists. Once all physical explanations have been ruled out, investigators may turn to psychological explanations and focus on mass hysteria, but that explanation is primarily based on the absence of physical evidence rather than the presence of agreed-upon psychosocial conditions. Some reports suggest that the diagnosis of MPI is really an excuse for not conducting an adequate evaluation of low-level environmental contaminants. The disability in some workers is prolonged and points to non-work-related factors that may be contributing. Were it not for the unverifiable physical complaints and the workers' insistence that the symptoms are the result of physical disease and their concern about the complaints and their reactions to dismissal of their complaints, we would not consider these patients to have a mental disorder. These individuals are reinforced in their beliefs by some physicians and attorneys, and resultant litigation tends to fix their symptoms. In fact, a "conspiracy theory" evolves when there are enough convinced people--and enough people trying to dissuade them. Group phenomena reinforce their beliefs and

  1. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  2. The Obesity Epidemic – What Can Be Done? PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-08-03

    This 60 second PSA is based on the August 2010 CDC Vital Signs report which provides information on obesity and what you can do to help fight the epidemic.  Created: 8/3/2010 by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).   Date Released: 8/3/2010.

  3. Pre-epidemic preparedness and the control of Lassa fever in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The country seems not to have learnt from past epidemics most especially the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. After the declaration of Nigeria EVD free, most control arsenals were relaxed, isolation and quarantine structures were dismantled and preventive efforts such as provision of Personal Protective ...

  4. Epidemic Cholera in a Crowded Urban Environment, Port-au-Prince, Haiti

    OpenAIRE

    Dunkle, Stacie E.; Mba-Jonas, Adamma; Loharikar, Anagha; Fouché, Bernadette; Peck, Mireille; Ayers, Tracy; Archer, W. Roodly; De Rochars, Valery M. Beau; Bender, Thomas; Moffett, Daphne B.; Tappero, Jordan W.; Dahourou, George; Roels, Thierry H.; Quick, Robert

    2011-01-01

    We conducted a case–control study to investigate factors associated with epidemic cholera. Water treatment and handwashing may have been protective, highlighting the need for personal hygiene for cholera prevention in contaminated urban environments. We also found a diverse diet, a possible proxy for improved nutrition, was protective against cholera.

  5. 'The epidemic in this country has the face of a woman' 1 : Gender ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    'The epidemic in this country has the face of a woman' 1 : Gender and HIV/AIDS in South Africa 2. ... Abstract. Epidemiological data clearly show that the highest levels of HIV prevalence occur in sub-Saharan Africa. ... Keywords: gender inequality, HIV prevention, socio-cultural and material aspects, women. African Journal ...

  6. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  7. Cholera - management and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Hannah G; Bowman, Conor; Luby, Stephen P

    2017-06-01

    Cholera is an acute secretory diarrhoeal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. It is likely to have originated in the Indian sub-continent; however, it spread to cause six worldwide pandemics between 1817-1923. The ongoing seventh worldwide pandemic of cholera began in 1961. The intensity, duration and severity of cholera epidemics have been increasing, signaling the need for more effective control and prevention measures. The response to the cholera pandemics of the 19th century led to the development of safe and effective sanitation and water systems which have effectively removed the risk of cholera in many settings. However, such systems are not in place to protect billions of people worldwide. Although some progress has been made in expanding access to water in recent years, achieving optimal infrastructure will, in the most optimistic scenario, take decades. Climate change, extreme weather events and rapid urbanisation suggests that alternatives to the current paradigm of providing large centralised water and sanitation systems should be considered, including smaller decentralised systems. The aim of this review paper is to provide an overview of current knowledge regarding management of cholera with a focus on prevention measures including vaccination and water and sanitation interventions. © 2017 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.; Yu, H.-L.

    2007-01-01

    Indian epidemic, the disease disappeared and reappeared several times at most locations; in Western Europe, once the disease entered a place, it lasted a time proportional to the population and then disappeared for several years (this on-and-off situation lasted more than three centuries); and (6) on average, Black Death moved much faster than bubonic plague to reach virgin territories, despite the fact that India is only slightly larger in area than Western Europe and had a railroad network almost instantly moving infected rats, fleas, and people from one end of the subcontinent to the other. Conclusions: These findings throw new light on the spatiotemporal characteristics of the epidemics and need to be taken into consideration in the scientific discussion concerning the two devastating diseases and the lessons learned from them. ?? 2007 The Royal Institute of Public Health.

  9. Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Da Silva, Renato Aparecido Pimentel; Viana, Matheus Palhares; Da Fontoura Costa, Luciano

    2012-01-01

    Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdös–Rényi (ER), Barabási–Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered. (paper)

  10. The History of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagaayi, Joseph; Serwadda, David

    2016-08-01

    HIV testing of African immigrants in Belgium showed that HIV existed among Africans by 1983. However, the epidemic was recognized much later in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to stigma and perceived fear of possible negative consequences to the countries' economies. This delay had devastating mortality, morbidity, and social consequences. In countries where earlier recognition occurred, political leadership was vital in mounting a response. The response involved establishment of AIDS control programs and research on the HIV epidemiology and candidate preventive interventions. Over time, the number of effective interventions has grown; the game changer being triple antiretroviral therapy (ART). ART has led to a rapid decline in HIV-related morbidity and mortality in addition to prevention of onward HIV transmission. Other effective interventions include safe male circumcision, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and post-exposure prophylaxis. However, since none of these is sufficient by itself, delivering a combination package of these interventions is important for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat.

  11. Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Mucha, Peter J.

    2018-05-01

    The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns—such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools—it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

  12. A Study Of Hospitalised Cases Of Acute Gastroenteritis Admitted In Civil Hospital, Ahmedabad During The Epidemic Of 1988.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar P

    1990-01-01

    Full Text Available An epidemic of gastroenteritis occurred between July and November 1988 in Ahmedabad City. The epidemic originated from Saijpur Bocha locality of the city and thereafter several new foci also development. The city has a number of Government and Municipal Corporation run hospitals as well as private treatment centers where these cases were treated. The Corporation also took measures to control this epidemic. The present study analysis the cases of gastroenteritis (2008 and cholera (112 admitted to the Civil Hospital during this period. The cases occurred in all age groups and both sexes. However, when compared with hospital records of previous non- epidemic years, more cases were found in the adult population and the case fatality rate was low during this epidemic. The study details the various control measures taken by the Municipal Corporation.

  13. An epidemic outbreak of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis in a Danish hospital

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marckmann, Peter

    2008-01-01

    The nephrological department of Copenhagen University Hospital Herlev experienced an epidemic accumulation of patients developing nephrogenic systemic fibrosis in the period 2002-2006. Systematic studies of these patients revealed that they all had a gadodiamide-enhanced magnetic resonance examination prior to their symptoms, and that they all had severe renal insufficiency (chronic kidney disease stage 5) at the time of their exposure to gadodiamide. Besides exposure to gadodiamide, our analyses indicated that increasing cumulative gadodiamide exposure (i.e. repeated exposures), and higher serum concentrations of ionized calcium and phosphate were cofactors that raised the risk of developing nephrogenic systemic fibrosis. Higher cumulative gadodiamide exposure, higher prescribed erythropoietin dosage at exposure, and being hemodialysis patient were three factors associated with nephrogenic systemic fibrosis in its most severe form. Retrospective reviews of patients records and patient interviews revealed the large variability in symptoms and clinical course of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis, but also highlighted that the typical initial symptoms were symmetric swelling, discoloration and pain of lower legs, whereas the typical late symptoms of severely affected patients were skin thickening, stiffness, contractures, and debilitating disabilities. In conclusion, nephrogenic systemic fibrosis is a serious iatrogenic disease of patients with renal insufficiency caused by some Gd-containing contrast agents, in particular gadodiamide. Unfortunately, there is no proven curative treatment. It is therefore essential that future cases of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis are prevented

  14. Molecular mechanisms of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zabel Peter

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS is a new infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus that leads to deleterious pulmonary pathological features. Due to its high morbidity and mortality and widespread occurrence, SARS has evolved as an important respiratory disease which may be encountered everywhere in the world. The virus was identified as the causative agent of SARS due to the efforts of a WHO-led laboratory network. The potential mutability of the SARS-CoV genome may lead to new SARS outbreaks and several regions of the viral genomes open reading frames have been identified which may contribute to the severe virulence of the virus. With regard to the pathogenesis of SARS, several mechanisms involving both direct effects on target cells and indirect effects via the immune system may exist. Vaccination would offer the most attractive approach to prevent new epidemics of SARS, but the development of vaccines is difficult due to missing data on the role of immune system-virus interactions and the potential mutability of the virus. Even in a situation of no new infections, SARS remains a major health hazard, as new epidemics may arise. Therefore, further experimental and clinical research is required to control the disease.

  15. The Social Impact of Communication during Epidemics: Bioethical and Public Health Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Alfredo Duro

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Public health communication and, especially during a crisis scenario such as an epidemics, is mediated by ethical conflicts ranging from values to deontology. In an intercommunicated world, the social support during outbreaks and epidemics becomes global and the state presence is a key to social protection. This should also be translated into timely, urgent and effective communication strategies from the public health perspective as well as efforts to prevent and avoid fake news or skewed information from any sources. Scenarios with lack of connection and obstacles in mass communication in public health major threats are described.

  16. Dynamical Analysis of SIR Epidemic Models with Distributed Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wencai Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available SIR epidemic models with distributed delay are proposed. Firstly, the dynamical behaviors of the model without vaccination are studied. Using the Jacobian matrix, the stability of the equilibrium points of the system without vaccination is analyzed. The basic reproduction number R is got. In order to study the important role of vaccination to prevent diseases, the model with distributed delay under impulsive vaccination is formulated. And the sufficient conditions of globally asymptotic stability of “infection-free” periodic solution and the permanence of the model are obtained by using Floquet’s theorem, small-amplitude perturbation skills, and comparison theorem. Lastly, numerical simulation is presented to illustrate our main conclusions that vaccination has significant effects on the dynamical behaviors of the model. The results can provide effective tactic basis for the practical infectious disease prevention.

  17. Oscillations in epidemic models with spread of awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Just, Winfried; Saldaña, Joan; Xin, Ying

    2018-03-01

    We study ODE models of epidemic spreading with a preventive behavioral response that is triggered by awareness of the infection. Previous studies of such models have mostly focused on the impact of the response on the initial growth of an outbreak and the existence and location of endemic equilibria. Here we study the question whether this type of response is sufficient to prevent future flare-ups from low endemic levels if awareness is assumed to decay over time. In the ODE context, such flare-ups would translate into sustained oscillations with significant amplitudes. Our results show that such oscillations are ruled out in Susceptible-Aware-Infectious-Susceptible models with a single compartment of aware hosts, but can occur if we consider two distinct compartments of aware hosts who differ in their willingness to alert other susceptible hosts.

  18. [A large-scale epidemic of diphtheria in Moscow in recent years: patterns of development].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chistiakova, G G; Filatov, N N; Korzhenkova, M P; Solodovnikov, Iu P; Lytkina, I N; Maksimova, N M; Markina, S S

    2001-01-01

    Data on the dynamics of diphtheria morbidity in Moscow in 1958-1999 are presented. The last epidemic which started at the end of the 1980s and reached its peak in 1994, giving a 59-fold rise in morbidity in comparison with the pre-epidemic period, is characterized in detail. During the epidemic 12,267 persons fell ill, 454 of them died (mortality rate was 4%). Having started in Moscow, the epidemic gradually spread not only over the territory of Russia, but also over some other republics of the former Soviet Union (Ukraine, Belarus, etc.). Possible causes of this epidemic emergency are considered. The ever increasing share of adult population among persons affected by the epidemic (75%) is noted. The infection adults is characterized by severity of clinical manifestations and increased morbidity among adults, is shown. Under complicated social and economic conditions (crisis situation) the increase of groups of high risk which included unemployed adults of working age, retirees as well as socially non-adapted persons, was registered. Mainly these groups determined tense epidemiological situation in diphtheria in Moscow.

  19. Evaluating neighborhood structures for modeling intercity diffusion of large-scale dengue epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Tzai-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Shun; Hu, Ming-Che

    2018-05-03

    Dengue fever is a vector-borne infectious disease that is transmitted by contact between vector mosquitoes and susceptible hosts. The literature has addressed the issue on quantifying the effect of individual mobility on dengue transmission. However, there are methodological concerns in the spatial regression model configuration for examining the effect of intercity-scale human mobility on dengue diffusion. The purposes of the study are to investigate the influence of neighborhood structures on intercity epidemic progression from pre-epidemic to epidemic periods and to compare definitions of different neighborhood structures for interpreting the spread of dengue epidemics. We proposed a framework for assessing the effect of model configurations on dengue incidence in 2014 and 2015, which were the most severe outbreaks in 70 years in Taiwan. Compared with the conventional model configuration in spatial regression analysis, our proposed model used a radiation model, which reflects population flow between townships, as a spatial weight to capture the structure of human mobility. The results of our model demonstrate better model fitting performance, indicating that the structure of human mobility has better explanatory power in dengue diffusion than the geometric structure of administration boundaries and geographic distance between centroids of cities. We also identified spatial-temporal hierarchy of dengue diffusion: dengue incidence would be influenced by its immediate neighboring townships during pre-epidemic and epidemic periods, and also with more distant neighbors (based on mobility) in pre-epidemic periods. Our findings suggest that the structure of population mobility could more reasonably capture urban-to-urban interactions, which implies that the hub cities could be a "bridge" for large-scale transmission and make townships that immediately connect to hub cities more vulnerable to dengue epidemics.

  20. Epidemic Cholera and American Reform Movements in the 19th Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seohyung KIM

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The 19th century was the age of great reform in American history. After constructing of the canal and railroads, the industrialization began and American society changed so rapidly. In this period, there were so many social crisis and American people tried to solve these problems within the several reform movements. These reform movements were the driving forces to control cholera during the 19th century. Cholera was the endemic disease in Bengal, India, but after the 19th century it had spread globally by the development of trade networks. The 1832 cholera in the United States was the first epidemic cholera in American history. The mortality of cholera was so high, but it was very hard to find out the cause of this fatal infectious disease. So, different social discourses happened to control epidemic cholera in the 19th century, these can be understood within the similar context of American reform movements during this period. Board of Health in New York States made a new public health act to control cholera in 1832, it was ineffective. Some people insisted that the cause of this infectious disease was the corruption of the United States. They emphasized unjust and immoral system in American society. Moral reform expanded to Nativism, because lots of Irish immigrants were the victims of cholera. So, epidemic cholera was the opportunity to spread the desire for moral reform. To control cholera in 1849, the sanitary reform in Britain had affected. The fact that it was so important to improve and maintain the water quality for the control and prevention of disease spread, the sanitary reform happened. There were two different sphere of the sanitary reform. The former was the private reform to improve sewer or privy, the latter was the public reform to build sewage facilities. The 1849 cholera had an important meaning, because the social discourse, which had emphasized the sanitation of people or home expanded to the public sphere. When cholera

  1. [Epidemic Cholera and American Reform Movements in the 19th Century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seohyung

    2015-12-01

    The 19th century was the age of great reform in American history. After constructing of the canal and railroads, the industrialization began and American society changed so rapidly. In this period, there were so many social crisis and American people tried to solve these problems within the several reform movements. These reform movements were the driving forces to control cholera during the 19th century. Cholera was the endemic disease in Bengal, India, but after the 19th century it had spread globally by the development of trade networks. The 1832 cholera in the United States was the first epidemic cholera in American history. The mortality of cholera was so high, but it was very hard to find out the cause of this fatal infectious disease. So, different social discourses happened to control epidemic cholera in the 19th century, these can be understood within the similar context of American reform movements during this period. Board of Health in New York States made a new public health act to control cholera in 1832, it was ineffective. Some people insisted that the cause of this infectious disease was the corruption of the United States. They emphasized unjust and immoral system in American society. Moral reform expanded to Nativism, because lots of Irish immigrants were the victims of cholera. So, epidemic cholera was the opportunity to spread the desire for moral reform. To control cholera in 1849, the sanitary reform in Britain had affected. The fact that it was so important to improve and maintain the water quality for the control and prevention of disease spread, the sanitary reform happened. There were two different sphere of the sanitary reform. The former was the private reform to improve sewer or privy, the latter was the public reform to build sewage facilities. The 1849 cholera had an important meaning, because the social discourse, which had emphasized the sanitation of people or home expanded to the public sphere. When cholera broke out in 1866 again

  2. A sewage disposal failure as a cause of ascariasis and giardiasis epidemic in a family.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totkova, A; Klobusicky, M; Holkova, R; Valent, M; Stojkovicova, H

    2004-01-01

    In monitoring the incidence of intestinal parasites in children and employees of a nursery the authors examined 31 children with 8 (25.81%) and 16 employees with 3 (18.75%) positive results. The authors wanted to examine also the family members of 8 positive children and 3 positive employees but except from the cleaner's family, (Ascaris lumburicoides, Enterobius vermicularis and Entamoeba coli) nobody accepted the offer. All 8 members of a large family except for Patient 1 (a cleaner) and her grandson were without clinical and laboratory findings. They constitute 3 independent families who lived in 1st category flats. On August 31 there was an extensive sewage disposal failure in the ground floor flat of Family II and the flat was flooded by sewage. All family members worked solidarily on cleaning and also the members of Family IV who are friends of Family II. As shown by clinical symptoms of 'virosis', during the pre-patent period and after an outbreak within 73-78 days, laboratory findings of the family members demonstrated a severe family infection equal to a epidemic of intestinal parasitosis. Ascaris lumbricoides was diagnosed in 8 family members (61.54%) and Giardia intestinalis in 7 family members (53.85%) involved in cleaning. Enterobius vermicularis was found in 2 and Etamoeba coli in 1 family member. In monitored persons, in extreme hygienic conditions during the failure and later, a mass contraction arose on the basis of infection. The fact, that family epidemic arose subsequently, proved, in contrast to sporadic findings in children and adults, a 6.4 and 3.3 times higher incidence of Ascaris lumbricoides and a 5.6 and 8.6 times higher incidence of Giardia intestinalis. The authors discus the reasons of incidence and also preventive measures in population. (Tab. 3, Ref. 29.).

  3. Design of Epidemia - an Ecohealth Informatics System for Integrated Forecasting of Malaria Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Bayabil, E.; Beyane, B.; Bishaw, M.; Henebry, G. M.; Lemma, A.; Liu, Y.; Merkord, C. L.; Mihretie, A.; Senay, G. B.; Yalew, W.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning of the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. In response to this need, we are developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. The system incorporates software for capturing, processing, and integrating environmental and epidemiological data from multiple sources; data assimilation techniques that continually update models and forecasts; and a web-based interface that makes the resulting information available to public health decision makers. This technology will enable forecasts based on lagged responses to environmental risk factors as well as information about recent trends in malaria cases. Environmental driving variables will include a variety of remote-sensed hydrological indicators. EPIDEMIA will be implemented and tested in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia in collaboration with local stakeholders. We conducted an initial co-design workshop in July 2014 that included environmental scientists, software engineers, and participants from the NGO, academic, and public health sectors in Ethiopia. A prototype of the EPIDEMIA web interface was presented and a requirements analysis was conducted to characterize the main use cases for the public health community, identify the critical data requirements for malaria risk modeling, and develop of a list of baseline features for the public health interface. Several critical system features were identified, including a secure web-based interface for uploading and validating surveillance data; a flexible query system to allow retrieval of environmental and epidemiological data summaries as tables, charts, and maps; and an alert system to provide automatic warnings in response to environmental and epidemiological risk factors for malaria. Future system development will involve a cycle of implementation, training, usability testing, and

  4. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  5. Orphans of the HIV epidemic: the challenges from toddlerhood to adolescence and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lala, Mamatha M

    2014-01-01

    , schools, other community groups and individuals can still alter the course of the crisis. The Committed Communities Development Trust (CCDT) is a voluntary secular Trust, reaching out to 300,000 people annually, focusing intensively on children affected and infected by HIV/AIDS, mainly orphans, child headed families, children living in street situations, brothels, institutions and children at risk of drug addiction, abuse and exploitation in Mumbai. We run several comprehensive HIV/AIDS programmes addressing issues of prevention, care, support, education, awareness, empowerment, training and research through strongly structured home-based care programs, community based programs and temporary residential shelters. The CCDT recognizes and understands the daunting challenges these children face and helps them overcome these as a team by providing comprehensive care and support, giving them an opportunity in life and enabling them to become productive citizens of tomorrow.

  6. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  7. Health-Care Access during the Ebola Virus Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuilkin, Patricia A; Udhayashankar, Kanagasabai; Niescierenko, Michelle; Maranda, Louise

    2017-09-01

    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic, which began in West Africa in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, with more than 4,800 of these deaths occurring in Liberia. The epidemic had an additional effect of paralyzing the health-care systems in affected countries, which led to even greater mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the impact that the epidemic had on the provision of basic health care. During the period from March to May 2015, we undertook a nationwide, community-based survey to learn more about health-care access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. A cluster sampling strategy was used to administer a structured in-person survey to heads of households located within the catchment areas surrounding all 21 government hospitals in Liberia. A total of 543 heads of household from all 15 counties in Liberia participated in the study; more than half (67%) of urban respondents and 46% of rural respondents stated that it was very difficult or impossible to access health care during the epidemic. In urban areas, only 20-30% of patients seeking care during the epidemic received care, and in rural areas, only 70-80% of those seeking care were able to access it. Patients requiring prenatal and obstetric care and emergency services had the most difficulty accessing care. The results of this survey support the observation that basic health care was extremely difficult to access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. Our results underscore the critical need to support essential health-care services during humanitarian crises to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality.

  8. Prevention of coronary heart disease in people with severe mental illnesses: a qualitative study of patient and professionals' preferences for care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Christine A; Osborn, David PJ; Nazareth, Irwin; King, Michael B

    2006-01-01

    Background People with severe mental illness (SMI) are at increased risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) and there is growing emphasis on the need to monitor their physical health. However, there is little consensus on how services for the primary prevention of CHD should be organised for this patient group. We explored the views of people with SMI and health professionals from primary care and community mental health teams (CMHTs) on how best to provide these services. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of patients with SMI (n = 31) and staff from primary care (n = 10) and community mental health teams (n = 25) in North Central London. Transcripts of the qualitative interviews were analysed using a 'framework' approach to identify the main themes in opinions regarding various service models. Results Cardiovascular risk factors in people with SMI were of concern to participants. However, there was some disagreement about the best way to deliver appropriate care. Although staff felt that primary care should take responsibility for risk factor screening and management, patients favoured CHD screening in their CMHT. Problems with both approaches were identified. These included a lack of familiarity in general practice with SMI and antipsychotic side effects and poor communication of physical health issues to the CMHT. Lack of knowledge regarding CHD risk factor screening and difficulties in interpreting screening results and implementing appropriate interventions exist in secondary care. Conclusion Management of physical health care for people with SMI requires complex solutions that cross the primary-secondary care interface. The views expressed by our participants suggest that neither primary nor secondary care services on their own can provide a comprehensive service for all patients. The increased risk of CHD associated with SMI and antipsychotic medications requires flexible solutions with clear lines of responsibility

  9. Prevention of coronary heart disease in people with severe mental illnesses: a qualitative study of patient and professionals' preferences for care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazareth Irwin

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People with severe mental illness (SMI are at increased risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD and there is growing emphasis on the need to monitor their physical health. However, there is little consensus on how services for the primary prevention of CHD should be organised for this patient group. We explored the views of people with SMI and health professionals from primary care and community mental health teams (CMHTs on how best to provide these services. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of patients with SMI (n = 31 and staff from primary care (n = 10 and community mental health teams (n = 25 in North Central London. Transcripts of the qualitative interviews were analysed using a 'framework' approach to identify the main themes in opinions regarding various service models. Results Cardiovascular risk factors in people with SMI were of concern to participants. However, there was some disagreement about the best way to deliver appropriate care. Although staff felt that primary care should take responsibility for risk factor screening and management, patients favoured CHD screening in their CMHT. Problems with both approaches were identified. These included a lack of familiarity in general practice with SMI and antipsychotic side effects and poor communication of physical health issues to the CMHT. Lack of knowledge regarding CHD risk factor screening and difficulties in interpreting screening results and implementing appropriate interventions exist in secondary care. Conclusion Management of physical health care for people with SMI requires complex solutions that cross the primary-secondary care interface. The views expressed by our participants suggest that neither primary nor secondary care services on their own can provide a comprehensive service for all patients. The increased risk of CHD associated with SMI and antipsychotic medications requires flexible solutions with clear

  10. Is there a crack epidemic among students in Brazil?: comments on media and public health issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nappo, Solange Aparecida; Sanchez, Zila M; Ribeiro, Luciana Abeid

    2012-09-01

    In the past year, the Brazilian Federal Government and society have reported and acted on a crack use epidemic, which has been exacerbated by the media. This study hypothesized that crack use has not increased at the rate suggested by the Brazilian media. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in 2010 using a multistage probabilistic representative sample of Brazilian middle and high school students in the country's 27 state capitals. A total of 50,890 valid questionnaires were weighted, analyzed and results compared to the 2004 national school survey dataset. Considering lifetime and past year crack use, no change in consumption was found between 2004 and 2010. Official data in Brazil on middle and high school students does not support the assertion of a crack epidemic widely publicized by the media. Government measures to treat and prevent crack use are encouraged; however, the term epidemic has been inappropriately used to represent the static prevalence of crack consumption among students.

  11. The spatial diffusion of norovirus epidemics over three seasons in Tokyo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inaida, S; Shobugawa, Y; Matsuno, S; Saito, R; Suzuki, H

    2015-02-01

    We studied the spatial trend of norovirus (NoV) epidemics using sentinel gastroenteritis surveillance data for patients aged spreading pattern of NoV epidemics using sentinel surveillance data. Correlations of sentinel cases between the seasons and with demographic data were examined to identify the trend and related factors. A similar pattern of diffusion was observed over the seasons, and its mean correlation between seasons was significantly high. A higher number of cases were found in the peripheral area, which surrounds the most populated central area, and showed a correlation with the ratio of the children population (r = 0·321, P epidemic factor. Prevention with focus on the peripheral area is desirable.

  12. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH), with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values predicted by our simulator match

  13. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martín Gonzalo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH, with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values

  14. Large-scale application of highly-diluted bacteria for Leptospirosis epidemic control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracho, Gustavo; Varela, Enrique; Fernández, Rolando; Ordaz, Barbara; Marzoa, Natalia; Menéndez, Jorge; García, Luis; Gilling, Esperanza; Leyva, Richard; Rufín, Reynaldo; de la Torre, Rubén; Solis, Rosa L; Batista, Niurka; Borrero, Reinier; Campa, Concepción

    2010-07-01

    Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease of major importance in the tropics where the incidence peaks in rainy seasons. Natural disasters represent a big challenge to Leptospirosis prevention strategies especially in endemic regions. Vaccination is an effective option but of reduced effectiveness in emergency situations. Homeoprophylactic interventions might help to control epidemics by using highly-diluted pathogens to induce protection in a short time scale. We report the results of a very large-scale homeoprophylaxis (HP) intervention against Leptospirosis in a dangerous epidemic situation in three provinces of Cuba in 2007. Forecast models were used to estimate possible trends of disease incidence. A homeoprophylactic formulation was prepared from dilutions of four circulating strains of Leptospirosis. This formulation was administered orally to 2.3 million persons at high risk in an epidemic in a region affected by natural disasters. The data from surveillance were used to measure the impact of the intervention by comparing with historical trends and non-intervention regions. After the homeoprophylactic intervention a significant decrease of the disease incidence was observed in the intervention regions. No such modifications were observed in non-intervention regions. In the intervention region the incidence of Leptospirosis fell below the historic median. This observation was independent of rainfall. The homeoprophylactic approach was associated with a large reduction of disease incidence and control of the epidemic. The results suggest the use of HP as a feasible tool for epidemic control, further research is warranted. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Impact of human mobility on the emergence of dengue epidemics in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesolowski, Amy; Qureshi, Taimur; Boni, Maciej F.; Sundsøy, Pål Roe; Johansson, Michael A.; Rasheed, Syed Basit; Engø-Monsen, Kenth; Buckee, Caroline O.

    2015-01-01

    The recent emergence of dengue viruses into new susceptible human populations throughout Asia and the Middle East, driven in part by human travel on both local and global scales, represents a significant global health risk, particularly in areas with changing climatic suitability for the mosquito vector. In Pakistan, dengue has been endemic for decades in the southern port city of Karachi, but large epidemics in the northeast have emerged only since 2011. Pakistan is therefore representative of many countries on the verge of countrywide endemic dengue transmission, where prevention, surveillance, and preparedness are key priorities in previously dengue-free regions. We analyze spatially explicit dengue case data from a large outbreak in Pakistan in 2013 and compare the dynamics of the epidemic to an epidemiological model of dengue virus transmission based on climate and mobility data from ∼40 million mobile phone subscribers. We find that mobile phone-based mobility estimates predict the geographic spread and timing of epidemics in both recently epidemic and emerging locations. We combine transmission suitability maps with estimates of seasonal dengue virus importation to generate fine-scale dynamic risk maps with direct application to dengue containment and epidemic preparedness. PMID:26351662

  16. Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhaji Cherif

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation. In particular, we use SIR(BS (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1 disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2 behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3 elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes.

  17. Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherif, Alhaji; Barley, Kamal; Hurtado, Marcel

    2016-03-01

    We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component) model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary) and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local) factors ρ-α behavioural space. Mainly, (1) disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2) behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3) elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance) are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  19. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  20. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  1. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  2. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  3. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  4. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  5. Zika virus epidemic: the newest international emergency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Minamisava

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Infection from the Zika virus is a relatively new disease with limited publications reporting cases and research on outbreaks. It was initially described before 2007 in Africa and Asia, then later in the French Polynesia in the Pacific, and finally in the Americas, in 2015. Brazil confirmed its first case of infection from the Zika virus in March 2015(1 and since October 2015 it has recorded an explosive growth in the number of babies born with microcephaly and also an increase in neurological conditions, including Guillain-Barré syndrome. The strong suspicion that the infection from the Zika virus is related to these manifestations is what brought the Public Health Emergency Committee of the World Health Organization to declare on February 1st of 2016 that the spread of the virus is an emergency international public health problem, meaning that it is a serious, unexpected extraordinary event that could potentially require a coordinated international action(2-3. The absence of another explanation for the dramatic increase in cases of microcephaly and the Guillain-Barré syndrome, both concentrated in areas newly infected by the Zika virus, supports the recommendation of aggressive measures to prevent and reduce infection with the Zika virus, especially among pregnant women and those of reproductive age. In the same document, the World Health Organization recommends monitoring cases of microcephaly and the Guillain-Barré syndrome in the areas of risk and etiological studies of these events to determine whether infection by the Zika virus is causal and if there are other risk factors associated. Measures of additional precautions are as follows: (i             Related to the transmission of the virus: epidemiological surveillance, vector control, protection measures, information and counseling for pregnant women and to those who wish to get pregnant. (ii           Long-term measures: investment in research for vaccine

  6. The promises and challenges of pre-exposure prophylaxis as part of the emerging paradigm of combination HIV prevention

    OpenAIRE

    C?ceres, Carlos F; Koechlin, Florence; Goicochea, Pedro; Sow, Papa-Salif; O'Reilly, Kevin R; Mayer, Kenneth H; Godfrey-Faussett, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Towards the end of the twentieth century, significant success was achieved in reducing incidence in several global HIV epidemics through ongoing prevention strategies. However, further progress in risk reduction was uncertain. For one thing, it was clear that social vulnerability had to be addressed, through research on interventions addressing health systems and other structural barriers. As soon as antiretroviral treatment became available, researchers started to conceive that...

  7. Daily co-trimoxazole prophylaxis to prevent mortality in children with complicated severe acute malnutrition: a multicentre, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkley, James A; Ngari, Moses; Thitiri, Johnstone; Mwalekwa, Laura; Timbwa, Molline; Hamid, Fauzat; Ali, Rehema; Shangala, Jimmy; Mturi, Neema; Jones, Kelsey D J; Alphan, Hassan; Mutai, Beatrice; Bandika, Victor; Hemed, Twahir; Awuondo, Ken; Morpeth, Susan; Kariuki, Samuel; Fegan, Gregory

    2016-07-01

    Children with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have a greatly increased risk of mortality from infections while in hospital and after discharge. In HIV-infected children, mortality and admission to hospital are prevented by daily co-trimoxazole prophylaxis, despite locally reported bacterial resistance to co-trimoxazole. We aimed to assess the efficacy of daily co-trimoxazole prophylaxis on survival in children without HIV being treated for complicated SAM. We did a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled study in four hospitals in Kenya (two rural hospitals in Kilifi and Malindi, and two urban hospitals in Mombasa and Nairobi) with children aged 60 days to 59 months without HIV admitted to hospital and diagnosed with SAM. We randomly assigned eligible participants (1:1) to 6 months of either daily oral co-trimoxazole prophylaxis (given as water-dispersible tablets; 120 mg per day for age malnutrition (kwashiorkor), and 1221 (69%) were stunted (length-for-age Z score child-years of observation, 122 (14%) of 887 children in the co-trimoxazole group died, compared with 135 (15%) of 891 in the placebo group (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·71-1·16, p=0·429; 16·0 vs 17·7 events per 100 child-years observed (CYO); difference -1·7 events per 100 CYO, 95% CI -5·8 to 2·4]). In the first 6 months of the study (while participants received study medication), 63 suspected grade 3 or 4 associated adverse events were recorded among 57 (3%) children; 31 (2%) in the co-trimoxazole group and 32 (2%) in the placebo group (incidence rate ratio 0·98, 95% CI 0·58-1·65). The most common adverse events of these grades were urticarial rash (grade 3, equally common in both groups), neutropenia (grade 4, more common in the co-trimoxazole group), and anaemia (both grades equally common in both groups). One child in the placebo group had fatal toxic epidermal necrolysis with concurrent Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteraemia. Daily co

  8. A nationwide pharmacy chain responds to the opioid epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, Emily; Bergeron, Nyahne; Smith-Ray, Renae; Robson, Chester; O'Koren, Rachel

    To describe the 3-pronged approach taken by a large national retail pharmacy chain to address the opioid epidemic and associated overdoses. Large national retail pharmacy chain with more than 8200 stores in 50 states. Eight million customer interactions daily through in-store and digital settings. This is a company with a long history of responding to public health crises. Initiated 3 programs to respond to the opioid crisis: 1) provide safe medication disposal kiosks; 2) expand national access to naloxone; and 3) provide education on the risk and avoidance of opioid overdose. Used the RE-AIM framework to evaluate and enhance the quality, speed, and public health impact of the interventions. Not applicable. Early results are safe medication disposal kiosks in more than 43 states, naloxone-dispensing program in 33 states, and patient and support system education using the Opioid Overdose Toolkit from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. The availability of safe drug-disposal kiosks, naloxone dispensing at pharmacies, and patient education are key prevention initiatives to address the opioid epidemic and reduce the increasing national burden of opioid overdose. Early results are quantitatively and qualitatively promising. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Enhanced safety features of CHASHMA NPP UNIT-2 to encounter selected severe accidents, various challenges involved to prove the adequacy of severe accidents prevention/mitigation measures and to write management guidelines with one possible solution to these challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iqbal, Z.; Minhaj, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes enhanced safety features of Chashma Nuclear Power Plant Unit-2 (C-2), a 325 MWe PWR to encounter selected severe accidents and discusses various challenges involved to prove the adequacy of severe accidents encountering measures and to write severe accident management guidelines (SAMGs) in compliance with the recently introduced national regulations based on the new IAEA nuclear safety standards. C-2 is being built by China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) for Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC). Its twin, Unit-1 (C-1) also a 325 MWe PWR, was commissioned in 2000. Nuclear power safety with reference to severe accidents should be treated as a global issue and therefore the developed countries should include the people of developing countries in nuclear power industry's various severe accidents based research and development programs. The implementation of this idea may also deliver few other useful and mutually beneficial byproducts. (author)

  10. Keeping the Community Posted: Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Blogs and the Tobacco Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joseph G L

    2014-06-01

    Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people are more likely to use tobacco products than heterosexual people. This results in disproportionate death and disability for LGBT communities. Yet, addressing the tobacco epidemic is generally low on the agenda of LGBT community organizations, and LGBT individuals report lower levels of support for some evidence-based tobacco prevention and control policies than heterosexuals. Informed by agenda-setting theory, this study investigated coverage of the tobacco epidemic in LGBT news blogs. Sixteen blogs and 105 tobacco-related posts from 2003 to March 9, 2013, were identified, and a quantitative content analysis was conducted. Coverage of the tobacco epidemic was primarily concentrated in four blogs and focused on the epidemiology of the epidemic and on tobacco-related policies. Little coverage focused on the tobacco industry, addiction, or health effects. A substantial minority of coverage focused on socially conservative arguments comparing smoking to homosexuality as a lifestyle choice. Thirty-three organizations working on LGBT tobacco prevention and control were present in blog posts. LGBT news blogs have a potentially important and mostly untapped role in tobacco-related media advocacy. LGBT health advocates would do well to cultivate relationships with LGBT bloggers as well as include bloggers in dissemination and media strategy efforts.

  11. Human violence: a treatable epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Zulueta, F I

    1998-01-01

    Domestic violence is common, afflicting at least one in 15 of the population. The victims are usually women and children and the perpetrators often the traditional male head of the family. It commonly leads to a form of post-traumatic stress disorder manifested as psychiatric illness in women and violent crime in men. It is proposed that a major underlying factor is a failure of attachment in infancy. This form of violence can be prevented by better health care before and after birth, particularly in the inner cities and with reduction of inequality; education for parenting; free nursery education; and diminishing 'legitimate' violence, in the media, by government (capital or corporal punishment) and as violent sporting activities.

  12. FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

    2012-10-04

    The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

  13. X Syndrome. The epidemic of the XXI century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirian Belkis Nápoles

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The humanity has always been tied to the emergence of epidemics and pandemics that affect the course of the history, of the development in entire civilizations. In the epidemiologic transition that happened in last century, the control of transmissible illnesses with the progress of the science and the prevention, it brought about the appearance of chronic not transmissible illnesses. The metabolic syndrome (SM also known as Multimetabolic Syndrome or X Syndrome, is only a constellation of factors of risk lipids and not lipids that can appear in sequential or simultaneous form in the same individual. The objective of the present bibliographical review is to mention some relevant aspects destined to know, prevent and treating to the X Syndrome. For the realization of the same one we base on two types of sources: written material and on-line material. We conclude that a primary prevention and an opportune change of the food habits, environmental factors and life styles, would lead to diminishing the appearance of the Metabolic Syndrome. The treatment is accessible to the patient, of low economical cost, of very easy application for the population, and whose finality will be to prevent complications and to diminish the risks of cardiovascular illness.

  14. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  15. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  16. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  17. CDC Vital Signs: Today's Heroin Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the MMWR Science Clips Today’s Heroin Epidemic More people at risk, multiple drugs abused Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This Page Overview Problem Infographics What Can Be Done Issue Details Overview Heroin use has increased across the US among men and ...

  18. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  19. Alternative risk financing instruments for swine epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    Swine epidemics can have very large devastating financial consequences. Governments generally bear the direct losses, such as the value of destroyed animals. Consequential losses, such as the losses resulting from empty buildings and movement standstills, are completely borne by the farmers (and

  20. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  1. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  2. [Notes about other epidemics in Colonial Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Enrique

    2015-10-01

    In chronicles or in the historiography of the Colony in Chile there are few references about epidemics different to smallpox; like typhus, typhoid fever, dysentery, etc. Almost all, fast spreading in the country and some with high lethality, which led to overflowing the capacity of hospitals in the Chilean colonial period.

  3. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  4. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  5. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  6. Sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine O Nsoesie

    Full Text Available Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic.In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly influenced the attack rate; (ii the mean of the incubation period distribution appeared to be sufficient for determining its effects on the dynamics of epidemics; (iii the infectious period distribution had the strongest influence on the structure of the epidemic curves; (iv the sensitivity of the individual-based model was consistent across social networks investigated in this study and (v age-specific epidemics were sensitive to changes in the mean infectious period irrespective of the susceptibility of the other age groups. These findings suggest that small changes in some of the disease model parameters can significantly influence the uncertainty

  7. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  8. The immunology of the allergy epidemic and the hygiene hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambrecht, Bart N; Hammad, Hamida

    2017-09-19

    The immunology of the hygiene hypothesis of allergy is complex and involves the loss of cellular and humoral immunoregulatory pathways as a result of the adoption of a Western lifestyle and the disappearance of chronic infectious diseases. The influence of diet and reduced microbiome diversity now forms the foundation of scientific thinking on how the allergy epidemic occurred, although clear mechanistic insights into the process in humans are still lacking. Here we propose that barrier epithelial cells are heavily influenced by environmental factors and by microbiome-derived danger signals and metabolites, and thus act as important rheostats for immunoregulation, particularly during early postnatal development. Preventive strategies based on this new knowledge could exploit the diversity of the microbial world and the way humans react to it, and possibly restore old symbiotic relationships that have been lost in recent times, without causing disease or requiring a return to an unhygienic life style.

  9. Basic definitions for discrete modeling of computer worms epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Guevara López

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The information technologies have evolved in such a way that communication between computers or hosts has become common, so much that the worldwide organization (governments and corporations depends on it; what could happen if these computers stop working for a long time is catastrophic. Unfortunately, networks are attacked by malware such as viruses and worms that could collapse the system. This has served as motivation for the formal study of computer worms and epidemics to develop strategies for prevention and protection; this is why in this paper, before analyzing epidemiological models, a set of formal definitions based on set theory and functions is proposed for describing 21 concepts used in the study of worms. These definitions provide a basis for future qualitative research on the behavior of computer worms, and quantitative for the study of their epidemiological models.

  10. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  11. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  12. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  13. Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The strength and efficacy of the responses depend upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a ne...

  14. Conservation of biodiversity in sugar pine: effects of the blister rust epidemic on genetic diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance I. Millar; Bohun B. Kinloch; Robert D. Westfall

    1992-01-01

    Genetic diversity in sugar plne will be severely reduced by the blister rust pandemic predicted within the next 50 to 75 years. We model effects of the epidemic on genetic diversity at the stand and landscape levels for both natural and artificial regeneration. In natural stands, because natural frequencies of the dominant gene (R) for resistance are low, the most...

  15. Bone marrow transplantation from genetically HLA-nonidentical donors in children with fatal inherited disorders excluding severe combined immunodeficiencies: use of two monoclonal antibodies to prevent graft rejection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabado, N; Le Deist, F; Cant, A; De Graeff-Meeders, E R; Fasth, A; Morgan, G; Vellodi, A; Hale, G; Bujan, W; Thomas, C; Cavazzana-Calvo, M; Wijdenes, J; Fischer, A

    1996-09-01

    For children with life-threatening inborn errors of metabolism without a matched related bone marrow donor, transplantation from an HLA genetically nonidentical donor is the only therapeutic option. To reduce the high risk of graft rejection in this setting without increasing the conditioning regimen, a protocol based on the infusion of an antiadhesion antibody directed against the CD11a (leukocyte function-associated antigen 1 [LFA-1]) molecule was performed by the European Bone Marrow Transplantation-European Society for Immunodeficiency group with promising results. To optimize engraftment, and thereby survival, further, the additional blockade of a second important leukocyte adhesion and signalization pathway mediated by the CD2 and LFA-3 interaction was attempted in a multicenter protocol conducted by the European Bone Marrow Transplantation-European Society for Immunodeficiency group. Results of this study (ie, engraftment and survival) were compared with a historical control group that received the anti-LFA-1 antibody alone. Factors that may have affected engraftment and survival were also considered in this study. Forty-four children with inborn errors, including inherited immunodeficiencies (excluding severe combined immunodeficiencies), Chédiak-Higashi syndrome, familial hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, and malignant osteopetrosis, received bone marrow from HLA-nonidentical related donors or from HLA-identical unrelated donors at 13 European centers between August 1990 and June 1993. Bone marrow was depleted of T cells by use of either erythrocyte (E) rosetting or monoclonal antibodies (MoAbs) to prevent graft-versus-host disease. The conditioning regimen consisted of busulfan and cyclophosphamide for all patients plus etoposide for patients with osteopetrosis, familial hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, and Chédiak-Higashi syndrome. Infusions of MoAbs specific for the CD11a and the CD2 molecules were started 4 and 3 days, respectively, before and

  16. Epidemiology and vaccine of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in China: a mini-review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Dongbo; Wang, Xinyu; Wei, Shan; Chen, Jianfei; Feng, Li

    2016-03-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is an intestinal infectious disease caused by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV); manifestations of the disease are diarrhea, vomiting and dehydration. Starting from the end of 2010, a PED outbreak occurred in several pig-producing provinces in southern China. Subsequently, the disease spread throughout the country and caused enormous economic losses to the pork industry. Accumulating studies demonstrated that new PEDV variants that appeared in China were responsible for the PED outbreak. In the current mini-review, we summarize PEDV epidemiology and vaccination in China.

  17. The genome of Burkholderia cenocepacia J2315, an epidemic pathogen of cystic fibrosis patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holden, Matthew T G; Seth-Smith, Helena M B; Crossman, Lisa C

    2009-01-01

    ; the resulting chronic infections are associated with severe declines in lung function and increased mortality rates. B. cenocepacia strain J2315 was isolated from a CF patient and is a member of the epidemic ET12 lineage that originated in Canada or the United Kingdom and spread to Europe. The 8.06-Mb genome...... be pathogenic to both plants and man, J2315 is representative of a lineage of B. cenocepacia rarely isolated from the environment and which spreads between CF patients. Comparative analysis revealed that ca. 21% of the genome is unique in comparison to other strains of B. cenocepacia, highlighting the genomic...... success as an epidemic CF pathogen....

  18. Environmental heterogeneity and variations in the velocity of bluetongue virus spread in six European epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, Gaëlle; Tisseuil, Clément; Conte, Annamaria; Allepuz, Alberto; Pioz, Maryline; Lancelot, Renaud; Gilbert, Marius

    2018-01-01

    Several epidemics caused by different bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes occurred in European ruminants since the early 2000. Studies on the spatial distribution of these vector-borne infections and the main vector species highlighted contrasted eco-climatic regions characterized by different dominant vector species. However, little work was done regarding the factors associated with the velocity of these epidemics. In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare the velocity of BTV epidemic that have affected different European countries under contrasted eco-climatic conditions and to relate these estimates to spatial factors such as temperature and host density. We used the thin plate spline regression interpolation method in combination with trend surface analysis to quantify the local velocity of different epidemics that have affected France (BTV-8 2007-2008, BTV-1 2008-2009), Italy (BTV-1 2014), Andalusia in Spain (BTV-1 2007) and the Balkans (BTV-4 2014). We found significant differences in the local velocity of BTV spread according to the country and epidemics, ranging from 7.9km/week (BTV-1 2014 Italy) to 24.4km/week (BTV-1 2008 France). We quantify and discuss the effect of temperature and local host density on this velocity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Hyman, James M; Simonsen, Lone

    2015-01-21

    While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics over several generations of the disease. We analyzed epidemic growth patterns at three different spatial scales (regional, national, and subnational) of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia by compiling publicly available weekly time series of reported EVD case numbers from the patient database available from the World Health Organization website for the period 05-Jan to 17-Dec 2014. We found significant differences in the growth patterns of EVD cases at the scale of the country, district, and other subnational administrative divisions. The national cumulative curves of EVD cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia show periods of approximate exponential growth. In contrast, local epidemics are asynchronous and exhibit slow growth patterns during 3 or more EVD generations, which can be better approximated by a polynomial than an exponential function. The slower than expected growth pattern of local EVD outbreaks could result from a variety of factors, including behavior changes, success of control interventions, or intrinsic features of the disease such as a high level of clustering. Quantifying the contribution of each of these factors could help refine estimates of final epidemic size and the relative impact of different mitigation efforts in current and future EVD outbreaks.

  20. Deciphering the Origin of the 2012 Cholera Epidemic in Guinea by Integrating Epidemiological and Molecular Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebaudet, Stanislas; Mengel, Martin A.; Koivogui, Lamine; Moore, Sandra; Mutreja, Ankur; Kande, Yacouba; Yattara, Ousmane; Sarr Keita, Véronique; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe-Marie; Fournier, Pierre-Edouard; Garnotel, Eric; Keita, Sakoba; Piarroux, Renaud

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is typically considered endemic in West Africa, especially in the Republic of Guinea. However, a three-year lull period was observed from 2009 to 2011, before a new epidemic struck the country in 2012, which was officially responsible for 7,350 suspected cases and 133 deaths. To determine whether cholera re-emerged from the aquatic environment or was rather imported due to human migration, a comprehensive epidemiological and molecular survey was conducted. A spatiotemporal analysis of the national case databases established Kaback Island, located off the southern coast of Guinea, as the initial focus of the epidemic in early February. According to the field investigations, the index case was found to be a fisherman who had recently arrived from a coastal district of neighboring Sierra Leone, where a cholera outbreak had recently occurred. MLVA-based genotype mapping of 38 clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor isolates sampled throughout the epidemic demonstrated a progressive genetic diversification of the strains from a single genotype isolated on Kaback Island in February, which correlated with spatial epidemic spread. Whole-genome sequencing characterized this strain as an “atypical” El Tor variant. Furthermore, genome-wide SNP-based phylogeny analysis grouped the Guinean strain into a new clade of the third wave of the seventh pandemic, distinct from previously analyzed African strains and directly related to a Bangladeshi isolate. Overall, these results highly suggest that the Guinean 2012 epidemic was caused by a V. cholerae clone that was likely imported from Sierra Leone by an infected individual. These results indicate the importance of promoting the cross-border identification and surveillance of mobile and vulnerable populations, including fishermen, to prevent, detect and control future epidemics in the region. Comprehensive epidemiological investigations should be expanded to better understand cholera dynamics and improve disease control

  1. Cholera epidemic among Rwandan refugees: experience of ICDDR,B in Goma, Zaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, A K

    1994-01-01

    In July 1994, one of the worst cholera epidemics broke out among the nearly a million Rwandan refugees in Goma, eastern Zaire. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees estimated that nearly 12,000 people died during the epidemic. The International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) sent an eight-member medical team to Goma headed by Dr AK Siddique, a senior scientist of the Center and head of the Epidemic Control Preparedness Program, Dacca, Bangladesh. During their two-week stay, the team, in collaboration with UNICEF and the Ministry of Health, Zaire, conducted epidemiological assessment, operated a temporary treatment center and provided technical advice on case management of cholera and shigellosis to other health workers. The team also set up a microbiology laboratory in Goma to identify the pathogens responsible for the epidemic and their drug sensitivity patterns. The team visited a number of temporary treatment facilities in two of the five camp sites and provided technical advice to the health-care providers. They also visited treatment facilities in Goma city, where an estimated 200,000 refugees were affected by the epidemic. Deaths from cholera even in the treatment centers were much higher than expected. The overall case-fatality rate in the treatment centers was nearly 15%. Laboratory investigations showed that the initial epidemic was indeed caused by Vibrio cholerae strains resistant to tetracycline and doxycycline. By the first week of August, the number of cholera cases was declining, but the number of dysentery cases was increasing rapidly. Predominantly Shigella dysenteriae type 1 was responsible, which was resistant to most drugs used for treating shigellosis, except mecillinam. Inappropriate rehydration therapy and inadequate experience of health workers failed to prevent deaths. The team took over the operation of temporary treatment center at Katindo in Goma city with one of the highest case-fatality rates (14

  2. Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1 Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Napp

    relationship was not linear, probably as a result of the complex relationship between temperature and the different parameters affecting BTV transmission. Rt values for BTV-1 in Andalusia fell below the threshold of 1 when temperatures dropped below 21°C, a much higher threshold than that reported in other BTV outbreaks, such as the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe. This divergence may be explained by differences in the adaptation to temperature of the main vectors of the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia (Culicoides imicola compared those of the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe (Culicoides obsoletus. Importantly, we found that BTV transmission (Rt value increased significantly in areas with higher densities of sheep. Our analysis also established that control of BTV-1 in Andalusia was complicated by the simultaneous establishment of several distant foci at the start of the epidemic, which may have been caused by several independent introductions of infected vectors from the North of Africa. We discuss the implications of these findings for BTV surveillance and control in this region of Europe.

  3. A hidden HIV epidemic among women in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tran Hien

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The HIV epidemic in Vietnam is still concentrated among high risk populations, including IDU and FSW. The response of the government has focused on the recognized high risk populations, mainly young male drug users. This concentration on one high risk population may leave other populations under-protected or unprepared for the risk and the consequences of HIV infection. In particular, attention to women's risks of exposure and needs for care may not receive sufficient attention as long as the perception persists that the epidemic is predominantly among young males. Without more knowledge of the epidemic among women, policy makers and planners cannot ensure that programs will also serve women's needs. Methods More than 300 documents appearing in the period 1990 to 2005 were gathered and reviewed to build an understanding of HIV infection and related risk behaviors among women and of the changes over time that may suggest needed policy changes. Results It appears that the risk of HIV transmission among women in Vietnam has been underestimated; the reported data may represent as little as 16% of the real number. Although modeling predicted that there would be 98,500 cases of HIV-infected women in 2005, only 15,633 were accounted for in reports from the health system. That could mean that in 2005, up to 83,000 women infected with HIV have not been detected by the health care system, for a number of possible reasons. For both detection and prevention, these women can be divided into sub-groups with different risk characteristics. They can be infected by sharing needles and syringes with IDU partners, or by having unsafe sex with clients, husbands or lovers. However, most new infections among women can be traced to sexual relations with young male injecting drug users engaged in extramarital sex. Each of these groups may need different interventions to increase the detection rate and thus ensure that the women receive the care they

  4. Multiple alignment analysis on phylogenetic tree of the spread of SARS epidemic using distance method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiroch, S.; Pradana, M. S.; Irawan, M. I.; Mukhlash, I.

    2017-09-01

    Multiple Alignment (MA) is a particularly important tool for studying the viral genome and determine the evolutionary process of the specific virus. Application of MA in the case of the spread of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic is an interesting thing because this virus epidemic a few years ago spread so quickly that medical attention in many countries. Although there has been a lot of software to process multiple sequences, but the use of pairwise alignment to process MA is very important to consider. In previous research, the alignment between the sequences to process MA algorithm, Super Pairwise Alignment, but in this study used a dynamic programming algorithm Needleman wunchs simulated in Matlab. From the analysis of MA obtained and stable region and unstable which indicates the position where the mutation occurs, the system network topology that produced the phylogenetic tree of the SARS epidemic distance method, and system area networks mutation.

  5. Pains and Gains from China’s Experiences with Emerging Epidemics: From SARS to H7N9

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengfei Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the recent decades, China experienced several emerging virus outbreaks including those caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome- (SARS- coronavirus (Cov, H5N1 virus, and H7N9 virus. The SARS tragedy revealed faults in China’s infectious disease prevention system, propelling the Chinese government to enact reforms that enabled better combating of the subsequent H1N1 and H7N9 avian flu epidemics. The system is buttressed by three fundamental, mutually reinforcing components: (1 enduring government administration reforms, including legislation establishing a unified public health emergency management system; (2 prioritized funding for biotechnology and biomedicine industrialization, especially in the areas of pathogen identification, drug production, and the development of vaccines and diagnostics; and (3 increasing investment for public health and establishment of a rapid-response infectious diseases prevention and control system. China is now using its hard-gained experience to support the fight against Ebola in Africa and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in its own country.

  6. Using existing health care systems to respond to the AIDS epidemic: research and recommendations for Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, L H; Smith, H L; Lake, E T

    1997-01-01

    Chile is a country with a relatively low prevalence of HIV infection, where successful prevention has the potential to change the future course of the epidemic. A controversial national prevention strategy based upon public education has emerged in response to characterizations of the epidemic as well-dispersed with a growing involvement of heterosexuals. This characterization is not consistent with the observed facts. There is a comparatively well-organized health care system in Santiago that is doing a good job of detecting HIV infection and already has in place the elements of a targeted intervention scheme. Chile should place priority on the use of the existing health care infrastructure for implementing both the traditional public health interventions for sexually transmitted diseases (contact tracing and partner notification) and the AIDS-necessitated strategy of focused counseling and education.

  7. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  8. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  9. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  10. Financial evaluation of different vaccination strategies for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in The Netherlands in 2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annet G J Velthuis

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bluetongue (BT is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.. In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8 caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in The Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of The Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficiency.

  11. Financial evaluation of different vaccination strategies for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in The Netherlands in 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velthuis, Annet G J; Mourits, Monique C M; Saatkamp, Helmut W; de Koeijer, Aline A; Elbers, Armin R W

    2011-05-04

    Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008. An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in The Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of The Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs. This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficiency.

  12. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

    2015-12-01

    The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

  13. Epidemics in Complex Networks: The Diversity of Hubs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitsak, Maksim; Gallos, Lazaros K.; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene; Makse, Hernan A.

    2009-03-01

    Many complex systems are believed to be vulnerable to spread of viruses and information owing to their high level of interconnectivity. Even viruses of low contagiousness easily proliferate the Internet. Rumors, fads, and innovation ideas are prone to efficient spreading in various social systems. Another commonly accepted standpoint is the importance of the most connected elements (hubs) in the spreading processes. We address following questions. Do all hubs conduct epidemics in the same manner? How does the epidemics spread depend on the structure of the network? What is the most efficient way to spread information over the system? We analyze several large-scale systems in the framework of of the susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) disease spread model which can also be mapped to the problem of rumor or fad spreading. We show that hubs are often ineffective in the transmission of virus or information owing to the highly heterogeneous topology of most networks. We also propose a new tool to evaluate the efficiency of nodes in spreading virus or information.

  14. ObesiTV: how television is influencing the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulos, Rebecca; Vikre, Emily Kuross; Oppenheimer, Sophie; Chang, Hannah; Kanarek, Robin B

    2012-08-20

    Obesity is a major public health concern in the United States. Over the last several decades, the prevalence of obesity among both adults and children has grown at an alarming rate and is now reaching epidemic proportions. The increase in obesity has been associated with rises in a host of other chronic conditions including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and some cancers. While the causes of obesity are multifaceted, there is growing evidence that television viewing is a major contributor. Results of numerous studies indicate a direct association between time spent watching television and body weight. Possible explanations for this relationship include: 1) watching television acts as a sedentary replacement for physical activity; 2) food advertisements for nutrient-poor, high-calorie foods stimulate food intake; and 3) television viewing is associated with "mindless" eating. In addition to decreasing physical activity and increasing the consumption of highly palatable foods, television viewing can also promote weight gain in indirect ways, such as through the use of targeted product placements in television shows; by influencing social perceptions of body image; and airing programs that portray cooking, eating and losing weight as entertainment. This paper will provide an interdisciplinary review of the direct and indirect ways in which television influences the obesity epidemic, and conclude with ways in which the negative impact of television on obesity could be reduced. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Cholera: an overview with reference to the Yemen epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabaan, Ali A

    2018-06-22

    Cholera is a secretory diarrhoeal disease caused by infection with Vibrio cholerae, primarily the V. cholerae O1 El Tor biotype. There are approximately 2.9 million cases in 69 endemic countries annually, resulting in 95 000 deaths. Cholera is associated with poor infrastructure and lack of access to sanitation and clean drinking water. The current cholera epidemic in Yemen, linked to spread of V. cholerae O1 (Ogawa serotype), is associated with the ongoing war. This has devastated infrastructure and health services. The World Health Organization had estimated that 172 286 suspected cases arose between 27th April and 19th June 2017, including 1170 deaths. While there are three oral cholera vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization, there are issues surrounding vaccination campaigns in conflict situations, exacerbated by external factors such as a global vaccine shortage. Major movements of people complicates surveillance and administration of double doses of vaccines. Cholera therapy mainly depends on rehydration, with use of antibiotics in more severe infections. Concerns have arisen about the rise of antibiotic resistance in cholera, due to mobile genetic elements. In this review, we give an overview of cholera epidemiology, virulence, antibiotic resistance, therapy and vaccines, in the light of the ongoing epidemic in Yemen.

  16. Did the Food Environment Cause the Obesity Epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Kevin D

    2018-01-01

    Several putative explanations of the obesity epidemic relate to the changing food environment. Individual dietary macronutrients have each been theorized to be the prime culprit for population obesity, but these explanations are unlikely. Rather, obesity probably resulted from changes in the caloric quantity and quality of the food supply in concert with an industrialized food system that produced and marketed convenient, highly processed foods from cheap agricultural inputs. Such foods often contain high amounts of salt, sugar, fat, and flavor additives and are engineered to have supernormal appetitive properties driving increased consumption. Ubiquitous access to convenient and inexpensive food also changed normative eating behavior, with more people snacking, eating in restaurants, and spending less time preparing meals at home. While such changes in the food environment provide a likely explanation of the obesity epidemic, definitive scientific demonstration is hindered by the difficulty in experimentally isolating and manipulating important variables at the population level. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  17. Equal Graph Partitioning on Estimated Infection Network as an Effective Epidemic Mitigation Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadidjojo, Jeremy; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2011-01-01

    Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics. PMID:21799777

  18. Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godfray, H Charles J; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman

    2016-12-05

    Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of 'stress-testing' the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  19. [DETERMINATION OF TYPES OF EPIDEMIC MANIFESTATIONS OF CHOLERA IN REGIONS OF THE CRIMEA FEDERAL DISTRICT (REPUBLIC OF CRIMEA)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onischenko, G G; Popova, A Yu; Moskvitina, E A; Penkovskaya, N A; Listopad, S A; Titova, S V; Kruglikov, V D

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the study was determination of the type of epidemic manifestations of cholera in the Republic of Crimea based on evaluation of epidemic manifestations of cholera risk of introduction and spread of the infection. It was concluded, that, based on the cholera outbreaks, that had taken place, contamination of surface water bodies (fresh and sea) and sewage by Vibrio cholerae O1 ctxA+ and Vibrio cholerae O1 ctXA- potential epidemic danger of introduction of the infection by various types of international transport, population migration, the presence of epidemiologic risk in realization of water pathway of transmission of cholera causative agent and several other social conditions, the Republic of Crimea remains in the group of territories of type I by epidemic manifestations of cholera.

  20. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  1. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  2. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  3. Ciguatera fish poisoning. A southern California epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, E D; Tanner, P; Turchen, S G; Tunget, C L; Manoguerra, A; Clark, R F

    1995-01-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning results from the bioconcentration of a variety of toxins produced by marine dinoflagellates. Signs and symptoms vary widely, but it usually presents as gastrointestinal and neurologic complaints beginning shortly after the ingestion of fish containing the toxins. Symptoms may persist for months and sometimes even years. Although cases have been reported throughout the United States, epidemics are most common along tropical and subtropical coasts and usually involve the ingestion of large carnivorous fish. We review the literature and report the first epidemic of 25 cases of ciguatera fish poisoning presenting to area hospitals in Southern California that were successfully tracked by the Department of Health Services and isolated to fish caught off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Images Figure 1. PMID:7667980

  4. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  5. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  6. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  7. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  8. Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2013-01-01

    We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

  9. Prediction of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in western Africa by using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    YAKA, D. P.; Sultan, B.; Tarbangdo, F.; Thiaw, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    The variations of certain climatic parameters and the degradation of ecosystems, can affect human's health by influencing the transmission, the spatiotemporal repartition and the intensity of infectious diseases. It is mainly the case of meningococcal meningitis (MCM) whose epidemics occur particularly in Sahelo-Soudanian climatic area of Western Africa under quite particular climatic conditions. Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) is a contagious infection disease due to the bacteria Neisseria meningitis. MCM epidemics occur worldwide but the highest incidence is observed in the "meningitis belt" of sub-Saharan Africa, stretching from Senegal to Ethiopia. In spite of standards, strategies of prevention and control of MCS epidemic from World Health Organization (WHO) and States, African Sahelo-Soudanian countries remain frequently afflicted by disastrous epidemics. In fact, each year, during the dry season (February-April), 25 to 250 thousands of cases are observed. Children under 15 are particularly affected. Among favourable conditions for the resurgence and dispersion of the disease, climatic conditions may be important inducing seasonal fluctuations in disease incidence and contributing to explain the spatial pattern of the disease roughly circumscribed to the ecological Sahelo-Sudanian band. In this study, we tried to analyse the relationships between climatic factors, ecosystems degradation and MCM for a better understanding of MCM epidemic dynamic and their prediction. We have shown that MCM epidemics, whether at the regional, national or local level, occur in a specific period of the year, mainly from January to May characterised by a dry, hot and sandy weather. We have identified both in situ (meteorological synoptic stations) and satellitales climatic variables (NCEP reanalysis dataset) whose seasonal variability is dominating in MCM seasonal transmission. Statistical analysis have measured the links between seasonal variation of certain climatic parameters

  10. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  11. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  12. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  14. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  15. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  16. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  18. Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Buono

    Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

  19. Cardiac sympathetic innervation assessed with (123)I-MIBG retains prognostic utility in diabetic patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction evaluated for primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-González, P; Fabregat-Andrés, Ó; Cozar-Santiago, P; Sánchez-Jurado, R; Estornell-Erill, J; Valle-Muñoz, A; Quesada-Dorador, A; Payá-Serrano, R; Ferrer-Rebolleda, J; Ridocci-Soriano, F

    2016-01-01

    Scintigraphy with iodine-123-metaiodobenzylguanidine ((123)I-MIBG) is a non-invasive tool for the assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation (CSI) that has proven to be an independent predictor of survival. Recent studies have shown that diabetic patients with heart failure (HF) have a higher deterioration in CSI. It is unknown if (123)I-MIBG has the same predictive value for diabetic and non-diabetic patients with advanced HF. An analysis is performed to determine whether CSI with (123)I-MIBG retains prognostic utility in diabetic patients with HF, evaluated for a primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). Seventy-eight consecutive HF patients (48 diabetic) evaluated for primary prevention ICD implantation were prospectively enrolled and underwent (123)I-MIBG to assess CSI (heart-to-mediastinum ratio - HMR). A Cox proportional hazards multivariate analysis was used to determine the influence of (123)I-MIBG images for prediction of cardiac events in both diabetic and non-diabetic patients. The primary end-point was a composite of arrhythmic event, cardiac death, or admission due to HF. During a mean follow-up of 19.5 [9.3-29.3] months, the primary end-point occurred in 24 (31%) patients. Late HMR was significantly lower in diabetic patients (1.30 vs. 1.41, p=0.014). Late HMR≤1.30 was an independent predictor of cardiac events in diabetic (hazard ratio 4.53; p=0.012) and non-diabetic patients (hazard ratio 12.31; p=0.023). Diabetic patients with HF evaluated for primary prevention ICD show a higher deterioration in CSI than non-diabetics; nevertheless (123)I-MIBG imaging retained prognostic utility for both diabetic and non-diabetic patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMNIM. All rights reserved.

  20. Therapeutic and prevention strategies against human enterovirus 71 infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Chee Choy

    2015-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (HEV71) is the cause of hand, foot and mouth disease and associated neurological complications in children under five years of age. There has been an increase in HEV71 epidemic activity throughout the Asia-Pacific region in the past decade, and it is predicted to replace poliovirus as the extant neurotropic enterovirus of highest global public health significance. To date there is no effective antiviral treatment and no vaccine is available to prevent HEV71 infection. The increase in prevalence, virulence and geographic spread of HEV71 infection over the past decade provides increasing incentive for the development of new therapeutic and prevention strategies against this emerging viral infection. The current review focuses on the potential, advantages and disadvantages of these strategies. Since the explosion of outbreaks leading to large epidemics in China, research in natural therapeutic products has identified several groups of compounds with anti-HEV71 activities. Concurrently, the search for effective synthetic antivirals has produced promising results. Other therapeutic strategies including immunotherapy and the use of oligonucleotides have also been explored. A sound prevention strategy is crucial in order to control the spread of HEV71. To this end the ultimate goal is the rapid development, regulatory approval and widespread implementation of a safe and effective vaccine. The various forms of HEV71 vaccine designs are highlighted in this review. Given the rapid progress of research in this area, eradication of the virus is likely to be achieved. PMID:25964873

  1. Retrospective Analysis of the 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Katherine E.; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S.; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G.; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L.; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.; Galvani, Alison P.

    2016-01-01

    The 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40–80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. PMID:26928839

  2. Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Katherine E; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L; Galvani, Alison P

    2016-04-01

    The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  3. Virus-Specific Differences in Rates of Disease during the 2010 Dengue Epidemic in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M.; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Santiago, Gilberto A.; Muñoz-Jordan, Jorge L.; Santiago, Luis M.; Rivera, Aidsa; Rodríguez-Acosta, Rosa L.; Gonzalez Feliciano, Lorenzo; Margolis, Harold S.; Tomashek, Kay M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Dengue is a potentially fatal acute febrile illness (AFI) caused by four mosquito-transmitted dengue viruses (DENV-1–4) that are endemic in Puerto Rico. In January 2010, the number of suspected dengue cases reported to the passive dengue surveillance system exceeded the epidemic threshold and an epidemic was declared soon after. Methodology/Principal Findings To characterize the epidemic, surveillance and laboratory diagnostic data were compiled. A suspected case was a dengue-like AFI in a person reported by a health care provider with or without a specimen submitted for diagnostic testing. Laboratory-positive cases had: (i) DENV nucleic acid detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in an acute serum specimen; (ii) anti-DENV IgM antibody detected by ELISA in any serum specimen; or (iii) DENV antigen or nucleic acid detected in an autopsy-tissue specimen. In 2010, a total of 26,766 suspected dengue cases (7.2 per 1,000 residents) were identified, of which 46.6% were laboratory-positive. Of 7,426 RT-PCR-positive specimens, DENV-1 (69.0%) and DENV-4 (23.6%) were detected more frequently than DENV-2 (7.3%) and DENV-3 (Puerto Rico in the late 1960's. This epidemic re-emphasizes the need for more effective primary prevention interventions to reduce the morbidity and mortality of dengue. PMID:23593526

  4. The SIS Model of Epidemic Spreading in a Hierarchical Social Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabowski, A.; Kosinski, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    The phenomenon of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The SIS model with temporal immunity to a disease and a time of incubation is used. In our model spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions and the mobility of a contemporary community are taken into account. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. The influence of the structure of the social network on typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, is discussed. The probability that endemic state occurs is also calculated. Surprisingly it occurs, that less contagious diseases has greater chance to survive. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated and critical range of vaccinations that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results of numerical calculations are compared with the solutions of the master equation for the spreading process, and good agreement is found. (author)

  5. A comprehensive overview of the frequency and the severity of injuries sustained by car occupants and subsequent implications in terms of injury prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Yves; Cuny, Sophie; Hermitte, Thierry; Labrousse, Maxime

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the paper is to give an overview of the road injuries issues in France in the 2010's by determining the frequency and the severity of injuries sustained by car occupants, and to infer the implications in terms of vehicule safety. Three types of analysis are conducted. First, we present a time series analysis at a macro statistical level showing a dramatic decrease of injured and fatally injured occupants in passenger cars compared to other modes of road transport. Secondly, we propose a descriptive statistical analysis of the injuries (frequency and severity) sustained by car occupants, by body regions, using the AIS. Finally we propose some insights into the effectiveness of some safety features. French National crash census (BAAC) is used for a general overview of injury frequencies and raw severity scores (fatal, hospitalized, slighty injured) in car crashes. In-depth crash investigations data are used to specify the body regions and the severity of the injuries sustained by car occupants. Data show that car occupants mortality and morbidity decreased more over the last decade than other road modes: -58 % fatalities and -64 % hospitalized (compared to -39% and -55% for pedestrians, and -21% and -44% for motorcyclists for example). In crashes for which at least one person has been injured, 19 % of occupants are uninjured, 49 % of occupants sustain MAIS 1 injuries, 15 % MAIS2, 8% MAIS 3, and 9 % MAIS 4+. Regardless of seat belt use, the body regions most often injured are head, upper and lower extremities and thorax. However, at least two third up to 92% of involved persons sustain no injury at each of these body regions. The frequency of severe injuries is low, often less than 10 % and concern head and thorax mainly. Finally, the frequency and severity of injuries decrease for belted occupants in newer cars compared to older cars, whatever body regions. The frequency of severe injuries decreased by almost 50 % in these newer cars.

  6. Unrecognized Ingestion of Toxoplasma gondii Oocysts Leads to Congenital Toxoplasmosis and Causes Epidemics in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Kenneth; Hill, Dolores; Mui, Ernest; Wroblewski, Kristen; Karrison, Theodore; Dubey, J. P.; Sautter, Mari; Noble, A. Gwendolyn; Withers, Shawn; Swisher, Charles; Heydemann, Peter; Hosten, Tiffany; Babiarz, Jane; Lee, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    (See the Editorial Commentary by Linn, on pages 1090–1.) Background. Congenital toxoplasmosis presents as severe, life-altering disease in North America. If mothers of infants with congenital toxoplasmosis could be identified by risks, it would provide strong support for educating pregnant women about risks, to eliminate this disease. Conversely, if not all risks are identifiable, undetectable risks are suggested. A new test detecting antibodies to sporozoites demonstrated that oocysts were the predominant source of Toxoplasma gondii infection in 4 North American epidemics and in mothers of children in the National Collaborative Chicago-based Congenital Toxoplasmosis Study (NCCCTS). This novel test offered the opportunity to determine whether risk factors or demographic characteristics could identify mothers infected with oocysts. Methods. Acutely infected mothers and their congenitally infected infants were evaluated, including in-person interviews concerning risks and evaluation of perinatal maternal serum samples. Results. Fifty-nine (78%) of 76 mothers of congenitally infected infants in NCCCTS had primary infection with oocysts. Only 49% of these mothers identified significant risk factors for sporozoite acquisition. Socioeconomic status, hometown size, maternal clinical presentations, and ethnicity were not reliable predictors. Conclusions. Undetected contamination of food and water by oocysts frequently causes human infections in North America. Risks are often unrecognized by those infected. Demographic characteristics did not identify oocyst infections. Thus, although education programs describing hygienic measures may be beneficial, they will not suffice to prevent the suffering and economic consequences associated with congenital toxoplasmosis. Only a vaccine or implementation of systematic serologic testing of pregnant women and newborns, followed by treatment, will prevent most congenital toxoplasmosis in North America. PMID:22021924

  7. Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paull, Sara H; Horton, Daniel E; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kramer, Laura D; Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Kilpatrick, A Marm

    2017-02-08

    The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. The Implementation of a Video-Enhanced Aikido-Based School Violence Prevention Training Program To Reduce Disruptive and Assaultive Behaviors among Severely Emotionally Disturbed Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edelman, Andrew J.

    The martial art of Aikido was used as an intervention with 15 middle and high school students with severe emotional disturbances in an alternative educational setting. Students with an extensive history of violently disruptive and assaultive behaviors were trained for 12 weeks in this nonviolent Japanese martial art in order to achieve the…

  10. Mental health problems in deaf and severely hard of hearing children and adolescents : findings on prevalence, pathogenesis and clinical complexities, and implications for prevention, diagnosis and intervention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gent, Tiejo van

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to expand the knowledge of mental health problems with deaf and severely hard of hearing children and adolescents in the following domains: 1. The prevalence of mental health problems; 2. Specific intra- and interpersonal aspects of pathogenesis; 3. characteristics of the

  11. Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contact data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenio Valdano

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher risk of infection and implementing targeted surveillance and control measures. One important ingredient to consider is the pattern of disease-transmission contacts among the elements, however lack of data or delays in providing updated records may hinder its use, especially for time-varying patterns. Here we explore to what extent it is possible to use past temporal data of a system's pattern of contacts to predict the risk of infection of its elements during an emerging outbreak, in absence of updated data. We focus on two real-world temporal systems; a livestock displacements trade network among animal holdings, and a network of sexual encounters in high-end prostitution. We define the node's loyalty as a local measure of its tendency to maintain contacts with the same elements over time, and uncover important non-trivial correlations with the node's epidemic risk. We show that a risk assessment analysis incorporating this knowledge and based on past structural and temporal pattern properties provides accurate predictions for both systems. Its generalizability is tested by introducing a theoretical model for generating synthetic temporal networks. High accuracy of our predictions is recovered across different settings, while the amount of possible predictions is system-specific. The proposed method can provide crucial information for the setup of targeted intervention strategies.

  12. Impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea on performance of growing pigs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Alvarez

    Full Text Available The impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv infection on the US pork industry has mainly been attributed to the mortality that it causes in suckling piglets, and, consequently, much effort has been invested in the quantification of its effect in sow farms. However, no information on the performance of surviving pigs that were exposed to the PEDv as piglets is available. Here, a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv infection on growing pigs' performance, as indicated by mortality, average daily gain (ADG, average daily feed intake (ADFI, and feed conversion ratio (FCR was performed using production records from weaned pigs in nursery and wean-to-finish sites from sow farms that became PEDv-infected between May 2013 and June 2014. Production records from the first batch of growing pigs weaned in infected flows after the PEDv outbreak ("infected batches" were compared with those from pigs weaned within the previous 14 to 120 days ("control batches". Performance records from infected and control batches, paired by flow, were compared using non-parametric paired tests. Mortality, ADG and FCR were significantly different in PEDv-positive (infected compared with PEDv-negative (control batches, with a mean increase of mortality and FCR of 11% and 0.5, respectively, and a decrease of ADG of 0.16 lb/day. Our results demonstrate a poorer performance of growing pigs weaned after a PEDv outbreak compared with those weaned within the previous 14-120 days, suggesting that in addition to the mortality induced by PEDv in suckling pigs, the disease also impairs the performance of surviving pig. These findings help to quantify the impact of PEDv infection in the US and, ultimately, contribute to efforts to quantify the cost-effectiveness of disease prevention and control measures.

  13. Taking forward a ‘One Health’ approach for turning the tide against the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and other zoonotic pathogens with epidemic potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alimuddin Zumla

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The appearance of novel pathogens of humans with epidemic potential and high mortality rates have threatened global health security for centuries. Over the past few decades new zoonotic infectious diseases of humans caused by pathogens arising from animal reservoirs have included West Nile virus, Yellow fever virus, Ebola virus, Nipah virus, Lassa Fever virus, Hanta virus, Dengue fever virus, Rift Valley fever virus, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, and Zika virus. The recent Ebola Virus Disease epidemic in West Africa and the ongoing Zika Virus outbreak in South America highlight the urgent need for local, regional and international public health systems to be be more coordinated and better prepared. The One Health concept focuses on the relationship and interconnectedness between Humans, Animals and the Environment, and recognizes that the health and wellbeing of humans is intimately connected to the health of animals and their environment (and vice versa. Critical to the establishment of a One Health platform is the creation of a multidisciplinary team with a range of expertise including public health officers, physicians, veterinarians, animal husbandry specialists, agriculturalists, ecologists, vector biologists, viral phylogeneticists, and researchers to co-operate, collaborate to learn more about zoonotic spread between animals, humans and the environment and to monitor, respond to and prevent major outbreaks. We discuss the unique opportunities for Middle Eastern and African stakeholders to take leadership in building equitable and effective partnerships with all stakeholders involved in human and health systems to take forward a ‘One Health’ approach to control such zoonotic pathogens with epidemic potential.

  14. Suppressing epidemics on networks by exploiting observer nodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaguchi, Taro; Hasegawa, Takehisa; Yoshida, Yuichi

    2014-07-01

    To control infection spreading on networks, we investigate the effect of observer nodes that recognize infection in a neighboring node and make the rest of the neighbor nodes immune. We numerically show that random placement of observer nodes works better on networks with clustering than on locally treelike networks, implying that our model is promising for realistic social networks. The efficiency of several heuristic schemes for observer placement is also examined for synthetic and empirical networks. In parallel with numerical simulations of epidemic dynamics, we also show that the effect of observer placement can be assessed by the size of the largest connected component of networks remaining after removing observer nodes and links between their neighboring nodes.

  15. Suppressing epidemics on networks by exploiting observer nodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaguchi, Taro; Hasegawa, Takehisa; Yoshida, Yuichi

    2014-07-01

    To control infection spreading on networks, we investigate the effect of observer nodes that recognize infection in a neighboring node and make the rest of the neighbor nodes immune. We numerically show that random placement of observer nodes works better on networks with clustering than on locally treelike networks, implying that our model is promising for realistic social networks. The efficiency of several heuristic schemes for observer placement is also examined for synthetic and empirical networks. In parallel with numerical simulations of epidemic dynamics, we also show that the effect of observer placement can be assessed by the size of the largest connected component of networks remaining after removing observer nodes and links between their neighboring nodes.

  16. Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, T.

    2015-01-01

    Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

  17. [Refugees at Malmö Epidemic Hospital in 1945].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronberg, S

    1993-01-01

    In 1945, 423 refugees were admitted because of contagious disease at Malmö Epidemic Hospital. Of these refugees 159 men and 167 women arrived from the German concentration camps in Ravensbrück, Buchenwald, Bergen-Belsen, Neuengamme and others. Others arrived in a boat destined to be sunk when peace came and the crew changed mind, letting the boat board at Malmö harbour. Thus life was saved to more than 95% of its passengers. Of the refugees 31% came from Poland, 24% from Scandinavian countries, 12% from Benelux and 10% from France. Louse-borne typhus was the most frequent diagnosis that occurred in 35%. Other common disorders were diphtheria, scarlet fever, enteric fever and tuberculosis. Almost all prisoners from concentration camps were malnourished and had sustained severe cruelty. Most of them recovered rapidly when given food and vitamins.

  18. Air exposure behavior of the semiterrestrial crab Neohelice granulata allows tolerance to severe hypoxia but not prevent oxidative damage due to hypoxia-reoxygenation cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima, Tábata Martins; Geihs, Márcio Alberto; Nery, Luiz Eduardo Maia; Maciel, Fábio Everton

    2015-11-01

    The air exposure behavior of the semi-terrestrial crab Neohelice granulata during severe hypoxia was studied. This study also verified whether this behavior mitigates possible oxidative damage, namely lipoperoxidation, caused by hypoxia and reoxygenation cycles. The lethal time for 50% of the crabs subjected to severe hypoxia (0.5 mgO2 · L(-1)) with free access to air was compared to that of crabs subjected to severe hypoxia without access to air. Crabs were placed in aquaria divided into three zones: water (when the animal was fully submersed), land (when the animal was completely emerged) and intermediate (when the animal was in contact with both environments) zones. Then the crabs were held in this condition for 270 min, and the time spent in each zone was recorded. Lipid peroxidation (LPO) damage to the walking leg muscles was determined for the following four experimental conditions: a--normoxic water with free access to air; b--hypoxic water without access to air; c--hypoxic water followed by normoxic water without air access; and d--hypoxic water with free access to air. When exposed to hypoxic water, N. granulata spent significantly more time on land, 135.3 ± 17.7 min, whereas control animals (exposed to normoxic water) spent more time submerged, 187.4 ± 20.2 min. By this behavior, N. granulata was able to maintain a 100% survival rate when exposed to severe hypoxia. However, N. granulata must still return to water after periods of air exposure (~ 14 min), causing a sequence of hypoxia/reoxygenation events. Despite increasing the survival rate, hypoxia with air access does not decrease the lipid peroxidation damage caused by the hypoxia and reoxygenation cycle experienced by these crabs.

  19. [Impact of screening and treatment of low systemic blood flow in the prevention of severe intraventricular haemorrhage and/or death in pre-term infants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oulego Erroz, Ignacio; Alonso Quintela, Paula; Jiménez Gonzalez, Aquilina; Terroba Seara, Sandra; Rodríguez Blanco, Silvia; Rosón Varas, María; Castañón López, Leticia

    2018-04-02

    To assess the effect of a protocolised intervention for low systemic blood flow (SBF) in the occurrence of severe intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH) or death in pre-term infants. A study with a quasi-experimental design with retrospective controls was conducted on pre-term infants of less than 30weeks of gestational age, born between January 2016 and July 2017, who were consecutively included in the intervention period. The control cohort included pre-term infants (born between January 2013 and December 2015) matched by gestational age, birth weight, and gender (two controls for each case). The cases of low SBF diagnosed according to functional echocardiography during the study period received dobutamine (5-10μg/kg/min) for 48hours. The study included 29 cases (intervention period) and 54 controls (pre-intervention period). Ten out of 29 (34.5%) infants received dobutamine for low SBF during the intervention period, with 3/29 (10.3%) cases of severe IVH and/or death compared to 17/54 (31.5%) in the control cohort (p=.032). There was an independent association between the intervention and a decreased occurrence of severe IVH/death after adjusting for confounding factors both in the logistic regression model [OR 0.11 (95%CI: 0.01-0.65), p=.015], as well as in the sensitivity analysis using inverse probability of treatment weighting [OR 0.23 (95%CI: 0.09-0.56); p=.001]. In this study with retrospective controls, a protocolised screening, and treatment for low SBF was associated with a decreased occurrence of severe IVH or death in preterm infants. Large, adequately powered trials, are needed in order to determine whether postnatal interventions directed at low SBF can improve neurological outcomes. Copyright © 2018. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  20. Severe Hemolysis in a Patient With Erythrocytosis During Coupled Plasma Filtration Adsorption Therapy Was Prevented by Changing From Membrane-Based Technique to a Centrifuge-Based One.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Rong; Wu, Buyun; Kong, Ling; Gong, Dehua

    2016-01-01

    Coupled plasma filtration adsorption (CPFA) usually adopts membrane to separate plasma from blood. Here, we reported a case with erythrocytosis experienced severe hemolysis and membrane rupture during CPFA, which was avoided by changing from membrane-based technique to a centrifuge-based one. A 66-year-old man was to receive CPFA for severe hyperbilirubinemia (total bilirubin 922 μmol/L, direct bilirubin 638 μmol/L) caused by obstruction of biliary tract. He had erythrocytosis (hemoglobin 230 g/L, hematocrit 0.634) for years because of untreated tetralogy of Fallot. Severe hemolysis and membrane rupture occurred immediately after blood entering into the plasma separator even at a low flow rate (50 mL/min) and persisted after changing a new separator. Finally, centrifugal plasma separation technique was used for CPFA in this patient, and no hemolysis occurred. After 3 sessions of CPFA, total bilirubin level decreased to 199 μmol/L with an average decline by 35% per session. Thereafter, the patient received endoscopic biliary stent implantation, and total bilirubin level returned to nearly normal. Therefore, centrifugal-based plasma separation can also be used in CPFA and may be superior to a membrane-based one in patients with hyperviscosity.

  1. The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Fuentes, R; Olea, A; Aguilera, X; Nesse, H; Hyman, J M

    2013-01-01

    We use a stochastic simulation model to explore the effect of reactive intervention strategies during the 2002 dengue outbreak in the small population of Easter Island, Chile. We quantified the effect of interventions on the transmission dynamics and epidemic size as a function of the simulated control intensity levels and the timing of initiation of control interventions. Because no dengue outbreaks had been reported prior to 2002 in Easter Island, the 2002 epidemic provided a unique opportunity to estimate the basic reproduction number R0 during the initial epidemic phase, prior to the start of control interventions. We estimated R0 at 27.2 (95%CI: 14.8, 49.3). We found that the final epidemic size is highly sensitive to the timing of start of interventions. However, even when the control interventions start several weeks after the epidemic onset, reactive intervention efforts can have a significant impact on the final epidemic size. Our results indicate that the rapid implementation of control interventions can have a significant effect in reducing the epidemic size of dengue epidemics.

  2. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  3. The role of imported cases and favorable meteorological conditions in the onset of dengue epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuin-Shee Shang

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Travelers who acquire dengue infection are often routes for virus transmission to other regions. Nevertheless, the interplay between infected travelers, climate, vectors, and indigenous dengue incidence remains unclear. The role of foreign-origin cases on local dengue epidemics thus has been largely neglected by research. This study investigated the effect of both imported dengue and local meteorological factors on the occurrence of indigenous dengue in Taiwan.Using logistic and Poisson regression models, we analyzed bi-weekly, laboratory-confirmed dengue cases at their onset dates of illness from 1998 to 2007 to identify correlations between indigenous dengue and imported dengue cases (in the context of local meteorological factors across different time lags. Our results revealed that the occurrence of indigenous dengue was significantly correlated with temporally-lagged cases of imported dengue (2-14 weeks, higher temperatures (6-14 weeks, and lower relative humidity (6-20 weeks. In addition, imported and indigenous dengue cases had a significant quantitative relationship in the onset of local epidemics. However, this relationship became less significant once indigenous epidemics progressed past the initial stage.These findings imply that imported dengue cases are able to initiate indigenous epidemics when appropriate weather conditions are present. Early detection and case management of imported cases through rapid diagnosis may avert large-scale epidemics of dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever. The deployment of an early-warning surveillance system, with the capacity to integrate meteorological data, will be an invaluable tool for successful prevention and control of dengue, particularly in non-endemic countries.

  4. Genetic and phylogenetic evolution of HIV-1 in a low subtype heterogeneity epidemic: the Italian example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tornesello Maria

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1 is classified into genetic groups, subtypes and sub-subtypes which show a specific geographic distribution pattern. The HIV-1 epidemic in Italy, as in most of the Western Countries, has traditionally affected the Intra-venous drug user (IDU and Homosexual (Homo risk groups and has been sustained by the genetic B subtype. In the last years, however, the HIV-1 transmission rate among heterosexuals has dramatically increased, becoming the prevalent transmission route. In fact, while the traditional risk groups have high levels of knowledge and avoid high-risk practices, the heterosexuals do not sufficiently perceive the risk of HIV-1 infection. This misperception, linked to the growing number of immigrants from non-Western Countries, where non-B clades and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs are prevalent, is progressively introducing HIV-1 variants of non-B subtype in the Italian epidemic. This is in agreement with reports from other Western European Countries. In this context, the Italian HIV-1 epidemic is still characterized by low subtype heterogeneity and represents a paradigmatic example of the European situation. The continuous molecular evolution of the B subtype HIV-1 isolates, characteristic of a long-lasting epidemic, together with the introduction of new subtypes as well as recombinant forms may have significant implications for diagnostic, treatment, and vaccine development. The study and monitoring of the genetic evolution of the HIV-1 represent, therefore, an essential strategy for controlling the local as well as global HIV-1 epidemic and for developing efficient preventive and therapeutic strategies.

  5. PROBLEM OF OPTIMAL CONTROL OF EPIDEMIC IN VIEW OF LATENT PERIOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of optimal control of epidemic through vaccination and isolation, taking into account latent period is considered. The target function is minimized - functionality summarizing costs on epidemic prevention and treatment and also considering expenses on infected people left at the end of control T who may be a new source of epidemic. On the left endpoint of the integration segment initial data is given - quantity of infected and confirmed people at the moment t, the right endpoint is free. The dynamic constraints are written by way of a system of simple differential equations describing the speed of changes of number of subjected to infection and number of already infected. Besides the inhomogeneous communi- ty is considered, consisting of four age groups (babies, preschool children, school children and adults. The speed of vaccina- tion (number of vaccinated per a time unit and isolation speed are used as the control functions. There are some restrictions on control above and below. The latent period is described by the constant h and is part of the equation describing the con- tamination speed of people as a retarding in argument t, i.e. a person being in a latent period infects others not being aware of his disease. For problem solving Pontryagin maximum principle is used where it can be seen that the control is piecewise constant. The result of numerical implementation of discrete problem of optimal control is given. The conclusions are made that the latent period significantly influence the incidence rate and as consequence the costs on epidemic suppression. The programme based on the programming language Delphi gives an opportunity to estimate the scale of epidemic at different initial data and restrictions on control as well as to find an optimal control minimizing costs on epimedic suppression.

  6. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  7. Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

    2008-03-01

    When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

  8. Generalized epidemic process on modular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kihong; Baek, Yongjoo; Kim, Daniel; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2014-05-01

    Social reinforcement and modular structure are two salient features observed in the spreading of behavior through social contacts. In order to investigate the interplay between these two features, we study the generalized epidemic process on modular networks with equal-sized finite communities and adjustable modularity. Using the analytical approach originally applied to clique-based random networks, we show that the system exhibits a bond-percolation type continuous phase transition for weak social reinforcement, whereas a discontinuous phase transition occurs for sufficiently strong social reinforcement. Our findings are numerically verified using the finite-size scaling analysis and the crossings of the bimodality coefficient.

  9. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  11. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  12. Regular extra curricular sports practice does not prevent moderate or severe variations in self-esteem or trait anxiety in early adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binsinger, Caroline; Laure, Patrick; Ambard, Marie-France

    2006-01-01

    Physical activity is often presented as an effective tool to improve self-esteem and/or to reduce anxiety. The aim of this study was to measure the influence of a regular extra curricular sports practice on self-esteem and anxiety. We conducted a prospective cohort study, which has included all of the pupils entering the first year of secondary school (sixth grade) in the Vosges Department (east France) during the school year 2001-2002 and followed during three years. Data were collected every six months by self-reported questionnaires. 1791 pupils were present at each of the six data collection sessions and completed all the questionnaires, representing 10,746 documents: 835 boys (46.6 %) and 956 girls (53.4 %), in November 2001, the average age was 11.1 ± 0.5 years (mean ± standard deviation). 722 pupils (40.3 %) reported that they had practiced an extra-school physical activity in a sporting association from November 2001 to May 2004 (ECS group), whereas, 195 (10.9 %) pupils had not practiced any extra-school physical activity at all (NECS group). The average global scores of self-esteem (Rosenberg's Scale) and trait anxiety (Spielberger's Scale) of the ECS pupils were, respectively, higher and lower than those of the NECS group. However, the incidence density (number of new cases during a given period / total person-time of observation) of moderate or severe decrease of self-esteem (less than "mean - one standard deviation "or less than "mean - two standard deviations") was not significantly different between the two groups, a finding that was also evident also in the case of trait anxiety. Finally, among ECS pupils, the incidence density of severe decrease of self-esteem was lower at the girls'. Practitioners and physical education teachers, as well as parents, should be encouraged to seek out ways to involve pupils in extra-school physical activities. Key PointsA regular extra-curricular sports practice is associated to better levels of self-esteem and

  13. O papel da mídia na prevenção do HIV/Aids e a representação da mulher no contexto da epidemia The paper of the media in the prevention of HIV/AIDS and the woman's representation in the context of the epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erli Helena Gonçalves

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available O presente artigo questiona o papel da mídia diante da epidemia do HIV/Aids. Toda a discussão é travada à luz da bioética, tentando sempre apreender os dilemas morais subjacentes nas mensagens de prevenção do HIV/Aids. Pautar se a mídia considerou os rumos da epidemia na medida em que essa ia se modificando; refletir se as campanhas educativas do HIV/Aids ponderavam as assimetrias de gênero, a sexualidade e os processos de socialização.The present article tries to question the mission of the media before the epidemic of HIV/AIDS. The whole discussion is supposed, in the light of the bioethics, to try to apprehend the tenor of the messages transmitted in the context of the disease. To discuss if the media had considered the different ways of the epidemic while they were being modified; to think if the HIV/AIDS educative campaigns had considered the gender differences, the sexuality and the socialization process.

  14. Theorizing "Big Events" as a potential risk environment for drug use, drug-related harm and HIV epidemic outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Samuel R; Rossi, Diana; Braine, Naomi

    2009-05-01

    Political-economic transitions in the Soviet Union, Indonesia, and China, but not the Philippines, were followed by HIV epidemics among drug users. Wars also may sometimes increase HIV risk. Based on similarities in some of the causal pathways through which wars and transitions can affect HIV risk, we use the term "Big Events" to include both. We first critique several prior epidemiological models of Big Events as inadequately incorporating social agency and as somewhat imprecise and over-generalizing in their sociology. We then suggest a model using the following concepts: first, event-specific HIV transmission probabilities are functions of (a) the probability that partners are infection-discordant; (b) the infection-susceptibility of the uninfected partner; (c) the infectivity of the infected--as well as (d) the behaviours engaged in. These probabilities depend on the distributions of HIV and other variables in populations. Sexual or injection events incorporate risk behaviours and are embedded in sexual and injection partnership patterns and community networks, which in turn are shaped by the content of normative regulation in communities. Wars and transitions can change socio-economic variables that can sometimes precipitate increases in the numbers of people who engage in high-risk drug and sexual networks and behaviours and in the riskiness of what they do. These variables that Big Events affect may include population displacement; economic difficulties and policies; police corruption, repressiveness, and failure to preserve order; health services; migration; social movements; gender roles; and inter-communal violence--which, in turn, affect normative regulation, youth alienation, networks and behaviours. As part of these pathways, autonomous action by neighbourhood residents, teenagers, drug users and sex workers to maintain their economic welfare, health or happiness may affect many of these variables or otherwise mediate whether HIV epidemics follow

  15. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  16. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  17. Activation/modulation of adaptive immunity emerges simultaneously after 17DD yellow fever first-time vaccination: is this the key to prevent severe adverse reactions following immunization?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, M A; Silva, M L; Marciano, A P V; Peruhype-Magalhães, V; Eloi-Santos, S M; Ribeiro, j G L; Correa-Oliveira, R; Homma, A; Kroon, E G; Teixeira-Carvalho, A; Martins-Filho, O A

    2007-04-01

    Over past decades the 17DD yellow fever vaccine has proved to be effective in controlling yellow fever and promises to be a vaccine vector for other diseases, but the cellular and molecular mechanisms by which it elicits such broad-based immunity are still unclear. In this study we describe a detailed phenotypic investigation of major and minor peripheral blood lymphocyte subpopulations aimed at characterizing the kinetics of the adaptive immune response following primary 17DD vaccination. Our major finding is a decreased frequency of circulating CD19+ cells at day 7 followed by emerging activation/modulation phenotypic features (CD19+interleukin(IL)10R+/CD19+CD32+) at day 15. Increased frequency of CD4+human leucocyte antigen D-related(HLA-DR+) at day 7 and CD8+HLA-DR+ at day 30 suggest distinct kinetics of T cell activation, with CD4+ T cells being activated early and CD8+ T cells representing a later event following 17DD vaccination. Up-regulation of modulatory features on CD4+ and CD8+ cells at day 15 seems to be the key event leading to lower frequency of CD38+ T cells at day 30. Taken together, our findings demonstrate the co-existence of phenotypic features associated with activation events and modulatory pathways. Positive correlations between CD4+HLA-DR+ cells and CD4+CD25high regulatory T cells and the association between the type 0 chemokine receptor CCR2 and the activation status of CD4+ and CD8+ cells further support this hypothesis. We hypothesize that this controlled microenviroment seems to be the key to prevent the development of serious adverse events, and even deaths, associated with the 17DD vaccine reported in the literature.

  18. Strategies for preventing respiratory syncytial virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Michael

    2008-12-01

    Prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection-crucial for decreasing the burden associated with this disease-is discussed. Predictable outbreaks of RSV occur annually throughout the U.S. During these outbreaks, RSV infection spreads readily among children through close contact with infected individuals or contact with contaminated surfaces or objects. RSV is the leading cause of infant hospitalization and is associated with life-changing and life-threatening complications. Prevention is important for reducing the associated morbidity and mortality. The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) has outlined ways to prevent RSV transmission. According to the AAP, frequent hand washing is the most important strategy for reducing the burden of RSV disease. Other methods for controlling nosocomial spread of RSV include the use of gloves, frequent glove changes, and isolating or cohorting patients. General prevention measures that can be undertaken by family members include smoking cessation, breastfeeding, and avoiding situations, whenever possible, where exposure to RSV cannot be controlled. Passive immunoprophylaxis with palivizumab, the only agent approved by the FDA, reduces hospitalization in high-risk children. Palivizumab is currently the only agent approved by the FDA for the prevention of RSV infections in high-risk children. Not every child is equally at risk for serious RSV disease, and immunoprophylaxis is indicated only for certain high-risk children. The AAP has issued specific guidelines for RSV immunoprophylaxis with palivizumab. Other therapies are emerging for the prevention of RSV, including a new, enhanced-potency, humanized RSV monoclonal antibody and several different types of vaccines. RSV causes an annual, predictable epidemic. Treatment remains exclusively supportive. Prevention remains the cornerstone of disease management. The AAP has issued guidelines to protect those at high risk.

  19. Statistics of Epidemics in Networks by Passing Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Munik Kumar

    Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. In this thesis, we show how message-passing approach can be a helpful tool for simulating epidemic models in disordered medium like networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. The sort of dynamics we consider are stochastic, where randomness can arise from the stochastic events or from the randomness of network structures. As in belief propagation, variables or messages in message-passing approach are defined on the directed edges of a network. However, unlike belief propagation, where the posterior distributions are updated according to Bayes' rule, in message-passing approach we write differential equations for the messages over time. It takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids "echo chamber effects" where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. In our first results, we develop a message-passing approach to threshold models of behavior popular in sociology. These are models, first proposed by Granovetter, where individuals have to hear about a trend or behavior from some number of neighbors before adopting it themselves. In thermodynamic limit of large random networks, we provide an exact analytic scheme while calculating the time dependence of the probabilities and thus learning about the whole dynamics of bootstrap percolation, which is a simple model known in statistical physics for exhibiting discontinuous phase transition. As an application, we apply a similar model to financial networks, studying when bankruptcies spread due to the sudden devaluation of shared assets in overlapping portfolios. We predict that although diversification may be good for individual institutions, it can create dangerous systemic effects, and as a result

  20. Daily oral intake of theanine prevents the decline of 5-bromo-2′-deoxyuridine incorporation in hippocampal dentate gyrus with concomitant alleviation of behavioral abnormalities in adult mice with severe traumatic stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takeshi Takarada

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Posttraumatic stress disorder is a long-lasting psychiatric disease with the consequence of hippocampal atrophy in humans exposed to severe fatal stress. We demonstrated a positive correlation between the transient decline of 5-bromo-2′-deoxyuridine (BrdU incorporation in the hippocampal dentate gyrus (DG and long-lasting behavioral abnormalities in mice with traumatic stress. Here, we investigated pharmacological properties of theanine on the declined BrdU incorporation and abnormal behaviors in mice with traumatic stress. Prior daily oral administration of theanine at 50–500 mg/kg for 5 days significantly prevented the decline of BrdU incorporation, while theanine significantly prevented the decline in the DG even when administered for 5 days after stress. Consecutive daily administration of theanine significantly inhibited the prolonged immobility in mice with stress in forced swimming test seen 14 days later. Although traumatic stress significantly increased spontaneous locomotor activity over 30 min even when determined 14 days later, the increased total locomotion was significantly ameliorated following the administration of theanine at 50 mg/kg for 14 days after stress. These results suggest that theanine alleviates behavioral abnormalities together with prevention of the transient decline of BrdU incorporation in the hippocampal DG in adult mice with severe traumatic stress.