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Sample records for prevalence rates estimated

  1. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  2. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

    OpenAIRE

    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  3. Estimation of the prevalence and rate of acute transfusion reactions occurring in Windhoek, Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meza, Benjamin P.L.; Lohrke, Britta; Wilkinson, Robert; Pitman, John P.; Shiraishi, Ray W.; Bock, Naomi; Lowrance, David W.; Kuehnert, Matthew J.; Mataranyika, Mary; Basavaraju, Sridhar V.

    2014-01-01

    Background Acute transfusion reactions are probably common in sub-Saharan Africa, but transfusion reaction surveillance systems have not been widely established. In 2008, the Blood Transfusion Service of Namibia implemented a national acute transfusion reaction surveillance system, but substantial under-reporting was suspected. We estimated the actual prevalence and rate of acute transfusion reactions occurring in Windhoek, Namibia. Methods The percentage of transfusion events resulting in a reported acute transfusion reaction was calculated. Actual percentage and rates of acute transfusion reactions per 1,000 transfused units were estimated by reviewing patients’ records from six hospitals, which transfuse >99% of all blood in Windhoek. Patients’ records for 1,162 transfusion events occurring between 1st January – 31st December 2011 were randomly selected. Clinical and demographic information were abstracted and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Healthcare Safety Network criteria were applied to categorize acute transfusion reactions1. Results From January 1 – December 31, 2011, there were 3,697 transfusion events (involving 10,338 blood units) in the selected hospitals. Eight (0.2%) acute transfusion reactions were reported to the surveillance system. Of the 1,162 transfusion events selected, medical records for 785 transfusion events were analysed, and 28 acute transfusion reactions were detected, of which only one had also been reported to the surveillance system. An estimated 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3–4.4) of transfusion events in Windhoek resulted in an acute transfusion reaction, with an estimated rate of 11.5 (95% CI: 7.6–14.5) acute transfusion reactions per 1,000 transfused units. Conclusion The estimated actual rate of acute transfusion reactions is higher than the rate reported to the national haemovigilance system. Improved surveillance and interventions to reduce transfusion-related morbidity and mortality

  4. Association between the Delta Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate and the Prevalence of Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance in Korean Males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Dong Jeong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. We investigated the association between the reduction in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR and the prevalence of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS in Korean males. Methods. We enrolled 723 healthy Korean males. Serum creatinine concentration, serum electrophoresis, serum immunofixation, and the serum free light chain assay were performed. We calculated delta eGFR per year (ΔeGFR/yr. The prevalence of MGUS was compared based on the ΔeGFR/yr and age group. Results. Thirteen (1.8% of 723 participants exhibited the monoclonal band on serum immunofixation. Prevalence of MGUS by age group was 0.00% (0/172 for 40 years, 1.63% (6/367 for 60 years, and 3.80% (7/184 for >60 years. The median decrease in ΔeGFR/yr was 5.3%. The prevalence of MGUS in participants in their 50s with >5.3% decline in ΔeGFR/yr was significantly higher than those with 5.3% decrease in ΔeGFR/yr was similar to that of healthy males in their 60s. Conclusion. Using the rate of reduction in ΔeGFR/yr in healthy Korean males who had their serum creatinine level checked regularly may increase the MGUS detection rate in clinical practice.

  5. The Influence of Survey Methodology in Estimating Prevalence Rates of Childhood Sexual Abuse Among Navy Recruits

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Olson, Cheryl B; Stander, Valerie A; Merril, Lex L

    2000-01-01

    ...% of the participants self-defined themselves as abused. Despite these differences in abuse rates, data from the SHIP survey, from SRB operational definitions, and from SRB self-definitions all independently accounted for variability in participants...

  6. Estimating Plasmodium falciparum transmission rates in low-endemic settings using a combination of community prevalence and health facility data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Yukich

    Full Text Available As some malaria control programs shift focus from disease control to transmission reduction, there is a need for transmission data to monitor progress. At lower levels of transmission, it becomes increasingly more difficult to measure precisely, for example through entomological studies. Many programs conduct regular cross sectional parasite prevalence surveys, and have access to malaria treatment data routinely collected by ministries of health, often in health management information systems. However, by themselves, these data are poor measures of transmission. In this paper, we propose an approach for combining annual parasite incidence and treatment data with cross-sectional parasite prevalence and treatment seeking survey data to estimate the incidence of new infections in the human population, also known as the force of infection. The approach is based on extension of a reversible catalytic model. The accuracy of the estimates from this model appears to be highly dependent on levels of detectability and treatment in the community, indicating the importance of information on private sector treatment seeking and access to effective and appropriate treatment.

  7. Dutch diabetes prevalence estimates (DUDE-1)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleefstra, Nanne; Landman, Gijsw. D.; Van Hateren, Kornelis J. J.; Meulepas, Marianne; Romeijnders, Arnold; Rutten, Guy E. H.; Klomp, Maarten; Houweling, Sebastiaan T.; Bilo, Henk J. G.

    Background: Recent decades have seen a constant upward projection in the prevalence of diabetes. Attempts to estimate diabetes prevalence rates based on relatively small population samples quite often result in underestimation. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the Dutch

  8. Dutch diabetes prevalence estimates (DUDE-1)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleefstra, Nanne; Landman, Gijsw. D.; Van Hateren, Kornelis J. J.; Meulepas, Marianne; Romeijnders, Arnold; Rutten, Guy E. H.; Klomp, Maarten; Houweling, Sebastiaan T.; Bilo, Henk J. G.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Recent decades have seen a constant upward projection in the prevalence of diabetes. Attempts to estimate diabetes prevalence rates based on relatively small population samples quite often result in underestimation. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the Dutch

  9. Prevalence of Reduced Kidney Function by Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Using an Equation Based on Creatinine and Cystatin C in Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components in Korean Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Ho Kang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundIt is known that metabolic syndrome (MetS is associated with chronic kidney disease. We evaluated and compared the prevalence of reduced kidney function in MetS and its components by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR using an equation based on creatinine (eGFRcr, cystatin C (eGFRcys, and combined creatinine-cystatin C (eGFRcr-cys in Korean adults.MethodsWe analyzed data from 3,649 adults who participated in a comprehensive health examination.ResultsMean values of eGFRcys were higher compared with mean values of eGFRcr (96.1±18.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 vs. 91.2±13.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 in total subjects. The prevalence of reduced kidney function increased with age (9.6% for eGFRcys vs. 5.8% for eGFRcr-cys vs. 4.9% for eGFRcr, in subjects aged ≥60 years, and significantly increased with MetS, abdominal obesity, hypertension, high triglyceride, low high density lipoprotein (HDL, and high insulin resistance. The prevalence of MetS, abdominal obesity, hypertension, high insulin resistance, low HDL, and hepatic steatosis was significantly increased in subjects with reduced kidney function. This increased prevalence and the odds ratio of reduced kidney function for prevalence of MetS was highest for eGFRcys, followed by those of eGFRcr-cys, and eGFRcr.ConclusionThe prevalence of reduced kidney function by eGFR was significantly increased in subjects with MetS and its related components. eGFRcys and eGFRcr-cys were superior to eGFRcr in detecting reduced kidney function.

  10. Estimating NHL Scoring Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Buttrey, Samuel E.; Washburn, Alan R.; Price, Wilson L.; Operations Research

    2011-01-01

    The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1334 We propose a model to estimate the rates at which NHL teams score and yield goals. In the model, goals occur as if from a Poisson process whose rate depends on the two teams playing, the home-ice advantage, and the manpower (power-play, short-handed) situation. Data on all the games from the 2008-2009 season was downloaded and processed into a form suitable for the analysis. The model...

  11. Estimating Discount Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Booth

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Discount rates are essential to applied finance, especially in setting prices for regulated utilities and valuing the liabilities of insurance companies and defined benefit pension plans. This paper reviews the basic building blocks for estimating discount rates. It also examines market risk premiums, as well as what constitutes a benchmark fair or required rate of return, in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. Some of the results are disconcerting. In Canada, utilities and pension regulators responded to the crash in different ways. Utilities regulators haven’t passed on the full impact of low interest rates, so that consumers face higher prices than they should whereas pension regulators have done the opposite, and forced some contributors to pay more. In both cases this is opposite to the desired effect of monetary policy which is to stimulate aggregate demand. A comprehensive survey of global finance professionals carried out last year provides some clues as to where adjustments are needed. In the U.S., the average equity market required return was estimated at 8.0 per cent; Canada’s is 7.40 per cent, due to the lower market risk premium and the lower risk-free rate. This paper adds a wealth of historic and survey data to conclude that the ideal base long-term interest rate used in risk premium models should be 4.0 per cent, producing an overall expected market return of 9-10.0 per cent. The same data indicate that allowed returns to utilities are currently too high, while the use of current bond yields in solvency valuations of pension plans and life insurers is unhelpful unless there is a realistic expectation that the plans will soon be terminated.

  12. Prevalence and determinants of differences in cystatin C and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate in community-dwelling older adults: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legrand, Helen; Werner, Karin; Christensson, Anders; Pihlsgård, Mats; Elmståhl, Sölve

    2017-12-04

    Differences in cystatin C and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) can lead to clinical uncertainty. Existing eGFR equations perform poorly in a subset of individuals. This study aims to describe the prevalence of differences between cystatin C-based (eGFR cys ) and creatinine-based (eGFR creat ) eGFR in older adults and to explore which subsets of individuals may be most affected by differing estimations. In this cross-sectional study, participants from a cohort of community-dwelling older adults were examined at a baseline visit in 2001-2004 as part of the larger "Good Aging in Skåne" study. Exposure variables were obtained from questionnaires, interviews, examinations, and medical records. Blood samples were taken during the baseline visit, cryopreserved, and analyzed at a later time for biomarkers. The CKD-EPI equations were used to estimate GFR. Initial descriptive analyses were performed on 2931 individuals. A total of 2532 participants were included in the final multiple linear regression. Nearly two-thirds of participants had eGFR differences exceeding 10%, with nearly 20 % of participants having eGFR differences exceeding 30%. Smoking, age, body mass index (BMI), C-reactive protein (CRP), glucocorticoid use, and mean eGFR were correlated with differences between eGFR creat and eGFR cys . Differences between eGFR creat and eGFR cys are common and often of large magnitude in this community-dwelling population of older adults. The finding of multiple non-GFR determinants correlated to differences in GFR estimations can help direct future research to improve eGFR equations for subgroups prone to conflicting GFR estimations or to guide choice of biomarker for GFR estimation in these subgroups.

  13. Estimating the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddington‐Cruz, Márcia; Botteman, Marc F.; Carter, John A.; Chopra, Avijeet S.; Hopps, Markay; Stewart, Michelle; Fallet, Shari; Amass, Leslie

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Introduction: This study sought to estimate the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy (ATTR‐FAP). Methods: Prevalence estimates and information supporting prevalence calculations was extracted from records yielded by reference‐database searches (2005–2016), conference proceedings, and nonpeer reviewed sources. Prevalence was calculated as prevalence rate multiplied by general population size, then extrapolated to countries without prevalence estimates but with reported cases. Results: Searches returned 3,006 records; 1,001 were fully assessed and 10 retained, yielding prevalence for 10 “core” countries, then extrapolated to 32 additional countries. ATTR‐FAP prevalence in core countries, extrapolated countries, and globally was 3,762 (range 3639–3884), 6424 (range, 1,887–34,584), and 10,186 (range, 5,526–38,468) persons, respectively. Discussion: The mid global prevalence estimate (10,186) approximates the maximum commonly accepted estimate (5,000–10,000). The upper limit (38,468) implies potentially higher prevalence. These estimates should be interpreted carefully because contributing evidence was heterogeneous and carried an overall moderate risk of bias. This highlights the requirement for increasing rare‐disease epidemiological assessment and clinician awareness. Muscle Nerve 57: 829–837, 2018 PMID:29211930

  14. Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Feng Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence. Methods We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD, with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies. Hallett’s method designed for estimating HIV infections in Africa was modified to estimate the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI in the U.S. population and incidence of heart disease in the Canadian population. Results Model-derived estimates were in close agreement with observed incidence from cohort studies and population surveillance systems. This method correctly captured the trend in incidence given sufficient waves of cross-sectional surveys. The estimated MI declining rate in the U.S. population was in accordance with the literature. This method was superior to closed cohort, in terms of the estimating trend of population cardiovascular disease incidence. Conclusion It is possible to estimate CVD incidence accurately at the population level from cross-sectional prevalence data. This method has the potential to be used for age- and sex- specific incidence estimates, or to be expanded to other chronic conditions.

  15. Estimating the prevalence of infertility in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bushnik, Tracey; Cook, Jocelynn L.; Yuzpe, A. Albert; Tough, Suzanne; Collins, John

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND Over the past 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the use of assisted reproductive technologies in Canada, however, little is known about the overall prevalence of infertility in the population. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of current infertility in Canada according to three definitions of the risk of conception. METHODS Data from the infertility component of the 2009–2010 Canadian Community Health Survey were analyzed for married and common-law couples with a female partner aged 18–44. The three definitions of the risk of conception were derived sequentially starting with birth control use in the previous 12 months, adding reported sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months, then pregnancy intent. Prevalence and odds ratios of current infertility were estimated by selected characteristics. RESULTS Estimates of the prevalence of current infertility ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 10.2, 12.9) to 15.7% (95% CI 14.2, 17.4). Each estimate represented an increase in current infertility prevalence in Canada when compared with previous national estimates. Couples with lower parity (0 or 1 child) had significantly higher odds of experiencing current infertility when the female partner was aged 35–44 years versus 18–34 years. Lower odds of experiencing current infertility were observed for multiparous couples regardless of age group of the female partner, when compared with nulliparous couples. CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that the prevalence of current infertility has increased since the last time it was measured in Canada, and is associated with the age of the female partner and parity. PMID:22258658

  16. Estimating trematode prevalence in snail hosts using a single-step duplex PCR: how badly does cercarial shedding underestimate infection rates?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Born-Torrijos, A.; Poulin, R.; Raga, J. A.; Holzer, Astrid S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 7, MAY 2014 (2014), s. 243 ISSN 1756-3305 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : prevalence * detection * snail host * double infection * single-steo duplex PCR Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 3.430, year: 2014

  17. Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Andreas L S; Wiens, John J

    2018-01-01

    Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method-of-moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  18. Estimated prevalence of compulsive buying behavior in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koran, Lorrin M; Faber, Ronald J; Aboujaoude, Elias; Large, Michael D; Serpe, Richard T

    2006-10-01

    Compulsive buying (uncontrolled urges to buy, with resulting significant adverse consequences) has been estimated to affect from 1.8% to 16% of the adult U.S. population. To the authors' knowledge, no study has used a large general population sample to estimate its prevalence. The authors conducted a random sample, national household telephone survey in the spring and summer of 2004 and interviewed 2,513 adults. The interviews addressed buying attitudes and behaviors, their consequences, and the respondents' financial and demographic data. The authors used a clinically validated screening instrument, the Compulsive Buying Scale, to classify respondents as either compulsive buyers or not. The rate of response was 56.3%, which compares favorably with rates in federal national health surveys. The cooperation rate was 97.6%. Respondents included a higher percentage of women and people ages 55 and older than the U.S. adult population. The estimated point prevalence of compulsive buying among respondents was 5.8% (by gender: 6.0% for women, 5.5% for men). The gender-adjusted prevalence rate was 5.8%. Compared with other respondents, compulsive buyers were younger, and a greater proportion reported incomes under 50,000 US dollars. They exhibited more maladaptive responses on most consumer behavior measures and were more than four times less likely to pay off credit card balances in full. A study using clinically valid interviews is needed to evaluate these results. The emotional and functional toll of compulsive buying and the frequency of comorbid psychiatric disorders suggests that studies of treatments and social interventions are warranted.

  19. HIV infection among tuberculosis patients in Vietnam: prevalence and impact on tuberculosis notification rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thanh, D. H.; Sy, D. N.; Linh, N. D.; Hoan, T. M.; Dien, H. T.; Thuy, T. B.; Hoa, N. P.; Tung, L. B.; Cobelens, F.

    2010-01-01

    Vietnam has an emerging human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic (estimated population prevalence 0.5%), but valid data on HIV prevalence among tuberculosis (TB) patients are limited. Recent increases in TB notification rates among young adults may be related to HIV. To assess the prevalence of

  20. Refusal bias in the estimation of HIV prevalence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssens, Wendy; van der Gaag, Jacques; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F.; Tanović, Zlata

    2014-01-01

    In 2007, UNAIDS corrected estimates of global HIV prevalence downward from 40 million to 33 million based on a methodological shift from sentinel surveillance to population-based surveys. Since then, population-based surveys are considered the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence. However,

  1. Prevalence rate of chronic overuse pain in taekwondo athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koh, Jae-Ok

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of chronic overuse pain (COP) and to identify possible risk factors of COP in sport poomsae taekwondo. This is a cross-sectional survey. A total of 263 sport-poomsae competitors (112 females; 151 males; aged between 12-44 years), who competed at the 2014 sport poomsae taekwondo competition, participated in this study. The prevalence rate of COP and possible risk factors associated with COP were analyzed by using Chi-square tests and independent t-tests. A total of 173 athletes reported that they experienced COP (65.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 60.5-71.5). Female athletes showed a higher prevalence rate than their male counterparts (75.9% vs. 58.3%). Lower body (61.5%) and knee joints (26.4%) were the two primarily injured body part. A total of 101 athletes reported that they injured in the previous year. Among those, 81.2% were suffered from COP. The technique that caused pain most frequently was side-kick among females and front-kick among males. Prevalence rates of COP were significantly different by sex, education level, training hour, and a history of injury. The prevalence of COP is high among sport poomsae taekwondo athletes. Competitors who are female, have a history of injury, and train for extended hours were more likely to experience COP. To identify other potential risk factors of COP in sport poomsae taekwondo, more research is needed to build upon the findings.

  2. [Using log-binomial model for estimating the prevalence ratio].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Rong; Gao, Yan-hui; Yang, Yi; Chen, Yue

    2010-05-01

    To estimate the prevalence ratios, using a log-binomial model with or without continuous covariates. Prevalence ratios for individuals' attitude towards smoking-ban legislation associated with smoking status, estimated by using a log-binomial model were compared with odds ratios estimated by logistic regression model. In the log-binomial modeling, maximum likelihood method was used when there were no continuous covariates and COPY approach was used if the model did not converge, for example due to the existence of continuous covariates. We examined the association between individuals' attitude towards smoking-ban legislation and smoking status in men and women. Prevalence ratio and odds ratio estimation provided similar results for the association in women since smoking was not common. In men however, the odds ratio estimates were markedly larger than the prevalence ratios due to a higher prevalence of outcome. The log-binomial model did not converge when age was included as a continuous covariate and COPY method was used to deal with the situation. All analysis was performed by SAS. Prevalence ratio seemed to better measure the association than odds ratio when prevalence is high. SAS programs were provided to calculate the prevalence ratios with or without continuous covariates in the log-binomial regression analysis.

  3. Smoking rate and periodontal disease prevalence: 40-year trends in Sweden 1970-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergstrom, Jan

    2014-10-01

    To investigate the relationship between smoking rate and periodontal disease prevalence in Sweden. National smoking rates were found from Swedish National Statistics on smoking habits. Based on smoking rates for the years 1970-2010, periodontal disease prevalence estimates were calculated for the age bracket 40-70 years and smoking-associated relative risks between 2.0 and 20.0. The impact of smoking on the population was estimated according to the concept of population attributable fraction. The age-standardized smoking rate in Sweden declined from 44% in 1970 to 15% in 2010. In parallel with the smoking decline the calculated prevalence estimate of periodontal disease dropped from 26% to 12% assuming a 10-fold smoking-associated relative risk. Even at more moderate magnitudes of the relative risk, e.g. 2-fold or 5-fold, the prevalence decrease was quite tangible, suggesting that the current prevalence in Sweden is about 20-50% of the level 40 years ago. The population attributable fraction, estimating the portion of the disease that would have been avoided in the absence of smoking, was 80% in 1970 and 58% in 2010 at a ten-fold relative risk. Calculated estimates of periodontal disease prevalence are closely related to real changes in smoking rate. As smoking rate drops periodontal disease prevalence will drop. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Analysis of self-reported versus biomarker based smoking prevalence: methodology to compute corrected smoking prevalence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Ram B

    2017-07-01

    Prevalence of smoking is needed to estimate the need for future public health resources. To compute and compare smoking prevalence rates by using self-reported smoking statuses, two serum cotinine (SCOT) based biomarker methods, and one urinary 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL) based biomarker method. These estimates were then used to develop correction factors to be applicable to self-reported prevalences to arrive at corrected smoking prevalence rates. Data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 2007-2012 for those aged ≥20 years (N = 16826) were used. Self-reported prevalence rate for the total population computed as the weighted number of self-reported smokers divided by weighted number of all participants was 21.6% and 24% when computed by weighted number of self-reported smokers divided by the weighted number of self-reported smokers and nonsmokers. The corrected prevalence rate was found to be 25.8%. A 1% underestimate in smoking prevalence is equivalent to not being able to identify 2.2 million smokers in US in a given year. This underestimation, if not corrected, could lead to serious gap in the public health services available and needed to provide adequate preventive and corrective treatment to smokers.

  5. The Neutral Interest Rate: Estimates for Chile

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigo Fuentes S; Fabián Gredig U.

    2008-01-01

    To estimate the neutral real interest rate for Chile, we use a variety of methods that can be classified into three categories: those derived from economic theory, the neutral rate implicit in financial assets, and statistical procedures using macroeconomic data. We conclude that the neutral rate is not constant over time, but it is closely related with—though not equivalent to—the potential GDP growth rate. The application of the different methods yields fairly similar results. The neutral r...

  6. Cladoceran birth and death rates estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel, Wilfried; Taylor, B. E.; Kirsch-Prokosch, Susanne

    1987-01-01

    I. Birth and death rates of natural cladoceran populations cannot be measured directly. Estimates of these population parameters must be calculated using methods that make assumptions about the form of population growth. These methods generally assume that the population has a stable age distribution. 2. To assess the effect of variable age distributions, we tested six egg ratio methods for estimating birth and death rates with data from thirty-seven laboratory populations of Daphnia puli...

  7. Prevalence rates for depression by industry: a claims database analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulsin, Lawson; Alterman, Toni; Timothy Bushnell, P; Li, Jia; Shen, Rui

    2014-11-01

    To estimate and interpret differences in depression prevalence rates among industries, using a large, group medical claims database. Depression cases were identified by ICD-9 diagnosis code in a population of 214,413 individuals employed during 2002-2005 by employers based in western Pennsylvania. Data were provided by Highmark, Inc. (Pittsburgh and Camp Hill, PA). Rates were adjusted for age, gender, and employee share of health care costs. National industry measures of psychological distress, work stress, and physical activity at work were also compiled from other data sources. Rates for clinical depression in 55 industries ranged from 6.9 to 16.2 %, (population rate = 10.45 %). Industries with the highest rates tended to be those which, on the national level, require frequent or difficult interactions with the public or clients, and have high levels of stress and low levels of physical activity. Additional research is needed to help identify industries with relatively high rates of depression in other regions and on the national level, and to determine whether these differences are due in part to specific work stress exposures and physical inactivity at work. Claims database analyses may provide a cost-effective way to identify priorities for depression treatment and prevention in the workplace.

  8. Prevalence rates for depression by industry: a claims database analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alterman, Toni; Bushnell, P. Timothy; Li, Jia; Shen, Rui

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To estimate and interpret differences in depression prevalence rates among industries, using a large, group medical claims database. Methods Depression cases were identified by ICD-9 diagnosis code in a population of 214,413 individuals employed during 2002–2005 by employers based in western Pennsylvania. Data were provided by Highmark, Inc. (Pittsburgh and Camp Hill, PA). Rates were adjusted for age, gender, and employee share of health care costs. National industry measures of psychological distress, work stress, and physical activity at work were also compiled from other data sources. Results Rates for clinical depression in 55 industries ranged from 6.9 to 16.2 %, (population rate = 10.45 %). Industries with the highest rates tended to be those which, on the national level, require frequent or difficult interactions with the public or clients, and have high levels of stress and low levels of physical activity. Conclusions Additional research is needed to help identify industries with relatively high rates of depression in other regions and on the national level, and to determine whether these differences are due in part to specific work stress exposures and physical inactivity at work. Clinical significance Claims database analyses may provide a cost-effective way to identify priorities for depression treatment and prevention in the workplace. PMID:24907896

  9. An estimate of the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilowich, Bryan E; Biederman, Irving

    2016-08-01

    A web-based survey estimated the distribution of voice recognition abilities with a focus on determining the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia, the inability to identify a familiar person based on their voice. Participants matched clips of 50 celebrity voices to 1-4 named headshots of celebrities whose voices they had previously rated for familiarity. Given a strong correlation between rated familiarity and recognition performance, a residual was calculated based on the average familiarity rating on each trial, which thus constituted each respondent's voice recognition ability that could not be accounted for by familiarity. 3.2% of the respondents (23 of 730 participants) had residual recognition scores 2.28 SDs below the mean (whereas 8 or 1.1% would have been expected from a normal distribution). They also judged whether they could imagine the voice of five familiar celebrities. Individuals who had difficulty in imagining voices were also generally below average in their accuracy of recognition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

    2000-01-01

    A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)

  11. Epistemic uncertainties when estimating component failure rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Mavko, B.; Kljenak, I.

    2000-01-01

    A method for specific estimation of a component failure rate, based on specific quantitative and qualitative data other than component failures, was developed and is described in the proposed paper. The basis of the method is the Bayesian updating procedure. A prior distribution is selected from a generic database, whereas likelihood is built using fuzzy logic theory. With the proposed method, the component failure rate estimation is based on a much larger quantity of information compared to the presently used classical methods. Consequently, epistemic uncertainties, which are caused by lack of knowledge about a component or phenomenon are reduced. (author)

  12. Prevalence Rates of Mental Disorders in Chilean Prisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundt, Adrian P.; Alvarado, Rubén; Fritsch, Rosemarie; Poblete, Catalina; Villagra, Carolina; Kastner, Sinja; Priebe, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Objective High rates of mental disorders have been reported for prison populations worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The present study aimed to establish prevalence rates of mental disorders in Chilean prisoners. Method A nationwide random sample of 1008 prisoners was assessed in 7 penal institutions throughout Chile. Twelve-month prevalence rates were established using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) and compared to the prevalence rates previously published for the general population. Results Prevalence rates were 12.2% (95% CI, 10.2-14.1) for any substance use disorder, 8.3% (6.6-10.0) for anxiety disorders, 8.1% (6.5-9.8) for affective disorders, 5.7% (4.4-7.1) for intermittent explosive disorders, 2.2% (1.4-3.2) for ADHD of the adult, and 0.8% (0.3-1.3) for non-affective psychoses. Significantly higher prevalence rates among prisoners as compared to the general population in Chile were seen for major depression (6.1% vs. 3.7% males, Z=2.58, pprison population than in the general population. One-year prevalence rates of alcohol abuse (2.3% vs. 3.9%; Z=-2.04; pprison population than in the general population. Conclusions Service provision for prison populations in Chile should acknowledge high rates of depression and illicit drug use. Overall prevalence rates are lower than reported in other LMICs. Previous research in prison populations in LMICs might have overestimated prevalence rates of mental disorders. PMID:23894415

  13. Prevalence of estimated GFR reporting among US clinical laboratories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accetta, Nancy A; Gladstone, Elisa H; DiSogra, Charles; Wright, Elizabeth C; Briggs, Michael; Narva, Andrew S

    2008-10-01

    Routine laboratory reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) may help clinicians detect kidney disease. The current national prevalence of eGFR reporting in clinical laboratories is unknown; thus, the extent of the situation of laboratories not routinely reporting eGFR with serum creatinine results is not quantified. Observational analysis. National Kidney Disease Education Program survey of clinical laboratories conducted in 2006 to 2007 by mail, web, and telephone follow-up. A national random sample, 6,350 clinical laboratories, drawn from the Federal Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments database and stratified by 6 major laboratory types/groupings. Laboratory reports serum creatinine results. Reporting eGFR values with serum creatinine results. Percentage of laboratories reporting eGFR along with reporting serum creatinine values, reporting protocol, eGFR formula used, and style of reporting cutoff values. Of laboratories reporting serum creatinine values, 38.4% report eGFR (physician offices, 25.8%; hospitals, 43.6%; independents, 38.9%; community clinics, 47.2%; health fair/insurance/public health, 45.5%; and others, 43.2%). Physician office laboratories have a reporting prevalence lower than other laboratory types (P laboratories reporting eGFR, 66.7% do so routinely with all adult serum creatinine determinations; 71.6% use the 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation; and 45.3% use the ">60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)" reporting convention. Independent laboratories are least likely to routinely report eGFR (50.6%; P laboratories across all strata are more likely to report eGFR (P laboratories, federal database did not have names of laboratory directors/managers (intended respondents), assumed accuracy of federal database for sample purposes. Routine eGFR reporting with serum creatinine values is not yet universal, and laboratories vary in their reporting practices.

  14. The prevalence of disability among children: paradigms and estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudrick, Nancy R

    2002-11-01

    Every examination of disability among children must first grapple with definition of disability. The challenges to identifying disability among children involve not only determining the appropriate paradigm for defining disability, but also applying that paradigm to children in a meaningful way. This discussion of the prevalence of disability among children starts by examining the various paradigms utilized to identify disability and how they are interpreted when applied to children. Estimates of the prevalence of childhood disability, under different definitions of disability are presented. The goal of the discussion is to illustrate the sensitivity of the estimates of disability prevalence to the particular definition and data set used. Finally, the potential influence of the choice of paradigm on further measurement and service delivery is outlined.

  15. A prospective longitudinal study to estimate the prevalence of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A prospective longitudinal study to estimate the prevalence of obesity in Egyptian children with nocturnal enuresis and the association between body mass index and ... Egyptian Journal of Medical Human Genetics ... Response to the treatment was evaluated statistically and correlated with body mass index percentile.

  16. Disease prevalence estimations based on contact registrations in general practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogenveen, Rudolf; Westert, Gert; Dijkgraaf, Marcel; Schellevis, François; de Bakker, Dinny

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes how to estimate the prevalence of chronic diseases in a population using data from contact registrations in general practice with a limited time length. Instead of using only total numbers of observed patients adjusted for the length of the observation period, we propose the use

  17. Estimation of dose from chromosome aberration rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Deping

    1990-01-01

    The methods and skills of evaluating dose from correctly scored shromsome aberration rate are presented, and supplemented with corresponding BASIC computer code. The possibility and preventive measures of excessive probability of missing score of the aberrations in some of the current routine score methods are discussed. The use of dose-effect relationship with exposure time correction factor G in evaluating doses and their confidence intervals, dose estimation in mixed n-γ exposure, and identification of high by nonuniform acute exposure to low LET radiation and its dose estimation are discussed in more detail. The difference of estimated dose due to whether the interaction between subleisoms produced by n and γ have been taken into account is examined. In fitting the standard dose-aberration rate curve, proper weighing of experiment points and comparison with commonly accepted values are emphasised, and the coefficient of variation σ y √y of the aberration rate y as a function of dose and exposure time is given. In appendix I and II, the dose-aberration rate formula is derived from dual action theory, and the time variation of subleisom is illustrated and in appendix III, the estimation of dose from scores of two different types of aberrations (of other related score) is illustrated. Two computer codes are given in appendix IV, one is a simple code, the other a complete code, including the fitting of standard curve. the skills of using compressed data storage, and the production of simulated 'data ' for testing the curve fitting procedure are also given

  18. Prevalence rates of mental disorders in Chilean prisons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian P Mundt

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: High rates of mental disorders have been reported for prison populations worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs. The present study aimed to establish prevalence rates of mental disorders in Chilean prisoners. METHOD: A nationwide random sample of 1008 prisoners was assessed in 7 penal institutions throughout Chile. Twelve-month prevalence rates were established using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI and compared to the prevalence rates previously published for the general population. RESULTS: Prevalence rates were 12.2% (95% CI, 10.2-14.1 for any substance use disorder, 8.3% (6.6-10.0 for anxiety disorders, 8.1% (6.5-9.8 for affective disorders, 5.7% (4.4-7.1 for intermittent explosive disorders, 2.2% (1.4-3.2 for ADHD of the adult, and 0.8% (0.3-1.3 for non-affective psychoses. Significantly higher prevalence rates among prisoners as compared to the general population in Chile were seen for major depression (6.1% vs. 3.7% males, Z=2.58, p<0.05 and illicit drug use (3.3% vs. 0.6% males with drug abuse, Z=2.04, p<0.05; 2.6% vs. 0.1% females with drug abuse, Z=5.36, p<0.001; 3.4% vs. 1.1% males with drug dependence, Z=3.70; p<0.001. Dysthymia (6.5% vs. 15.6%, Z=-2.39, p<0.05, simple (3.3% vs. 11.5%, Z=-3.13, p<0.001 and social phobias (3.9% vs. 9.7%, Z=2.38, p<0.05 were significantly less frequent in the female prison population than in the general population. One-year prevalence rates of alcohol abuse (2.3% vs. 3.9%; Z=-2.04; p<0.05 and dependence (2.7% vs. 8.2%; Z=-5.24; p<0.001 were less prevalent in the male prison population than in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Service provision for prison populations in Chile should acknowledge high rates of depression and illicit drug use. Overall prevalence rates are lower than reported in other LMICs. Previous research in prison populations in LMICs might have overestimated prevalence rates of mental disorders.

  19. Global and regional estimates of COPD prevalence: Systematic review and meta–analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davies Adeloye

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD across many world regions is high. We aim to estimate COPD prevalence and number of disease cases for the years 1990 and 2010 across world regions based on the best available evidence in publicly accessible scientific databases. We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original, population–based studies providing spirometry–based prevalence rates of COPD across the world from January 1990 to December 2014. Random effects meta–analysis was conducted on extracted crude prevalence rates of COPD, with overall summaries of the meta–estimates (and confidence intervals reported separately for World Health Organization (WHO regions, the World Bank's income categories and settings (urban and rural. We developed a meta–regression epidemiological model that we used to estimate the prevalence of COPD in people aged 30 years or more. Our search returned 37 472 publications. A total of 123 studies based on a spirometry–defined prevalence were retained for the review. From the meta–regression epidemiological model, we estimated about 227.3 million COPD cases in the year 1990 among people aged 30 years or more, corresponding to a global prevalence of 10.7% (95% confidence interval (CI 7.3%–14.0% in this age group. The number of COPD cases increased to 384 million in 2010, with a global prevalence of 11.7% (8.4%–15.0%. This increase of 68.9% was mainly driven by global demographic changes. Across WHO regions, the highest prevalence was estimated in the Americas (13.3% in 1990 and 15.2% in 2010, and the lowest in South East Asia (7.9% in 1990 and 9.7% in 2010. The percentage increase in COPD cases between 1990 and 2010 was the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (118.7%, followed by the African region (102.1%, while the European region recorded the lowest increase (22.5%. In 1990, we estimated about 120.9 million COPD cases among urban dwellers

  20. Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Marc; Bock, Ariella; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

    2015-09-01

    Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value. For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (Plogistics data are strongly correlated with public-sector prevalence rates for short-acting methods, demonstrating the quality of current logistics data and their ability to provide relatively accurate prevalence estimates. The

  1. What Is the Economic Cost of Unplanned Pregnancy Following Hysteroscopic Sterilization in the US? A New National Estimate Based on Essure® Procedure Prevalence, Failure Rates and Workforce Productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sills, E Scott; Fernandez, Luca P; Jones, Christopher A

    Although hysteroscopic sterilization (HS) (Essure ®) has been available in the US since 2002, there is disagreement regarding its efficacy, and there has been no study of the economic impact of HS failure. Our investigation examined the economic consequences of contraceptive failure with Essure in the US. Contraceptive failure rates (CFR) of 5.7%, 7.7% and 9.6% were applied to the US cohort of HS patients (n = 600,000). Direct economic impact of productivity losses resulting from unplanned conceptions after HS was calculated by factoring Essure failure rate, the exposed population, US female labour force participation, unemployment rate, time away from work owing to vaginal delivery or pregnancy termination and weekly wages. For the 9.6% CFR scenario, US workforce productivity loss from unplanned pregnancy and delivery was estimated at 771,065 days (2,112 years). Productivity loss secondary to conception and subsequent termination of pregnancy after Essure was approximately 23,725 days (65 years). Assuming CFR at 5.7%, livebirth delivery with total time missed from work at 65 days, this was associated with an aggregate economic impact of $49.2M in lost annual wages. Direct economic impact of unplanned pregnancy after Essure irrespective of outcome (terminations and deliveries) was estimated to result in US productivity losses valued at ~$130M. Although not all unplanned pregnancy costs are attributable to failed HS, estimates derived from earlier surveys have not considered this contraceptive method, and the economic consequences of unplanned pregnancy after Essure are not trivial. Quantifying the economic consequences of HS failure would be improved with specific ICD-10 coding for Essure-associated symptoms.

  2. Estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate in Older People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Garasto

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed at reviewing age-related changes in kidney structure and function, methods for estimating kidney function, and impact of reduced kidney function on geriatric outcomes, as well as the reliability and applicability of equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR in older patients. CKD is associated with different comorbidities and adverse outcomes such as disability and premature death in older populations. Creatinine clearance and other methods for estimating kidney function are not easy to apply in older subjects. Thus, an accurate and reliable method for calculating eGFR would be highly desirable for early detection and management of CKD in this vulnerable population. Equations based on serum creatinine, age, race, and gender have been widely used. However, these equations have their own limitations, and no equation seems better than the other ones in older people. New equations specifically developed for use in older populations, especially those based on serum cystatin C, hold promises. However, further studies are needed to definitely accept them as the reference method to estimate kidney function in older patients in the clinical setting.

  3. HIV infection among tuberculosis patients in Vietnam: prevalence and impact on tuberculosis notification rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanh, D H; Sy, D N; Linh, N D; Hoan, T M; Dien, H T; Thuy, T B; Hoa, N P; Tung, L B; Cobelens, F

    2010-08-01

    Vietnam has an emerging human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic (estimated population prevalence 0.5%), but valid data on HIV prevalence among tuberculosis (TB) patients are limited. Recent increases in TB notification rates among young adults may be related to HIV. To assess the prevalence of HIV infection among smear-positive TB patients in six provinces with relatively high HIV population prevalence in Vietnam. All patients who registered for treatment of smear-positive TB during the fourth quarter of 2005 were offered HIV testing. Of the 1217 TB patients included in the study, 100 (8.2%) tested HIV-positive. HIV prevalence varied between 2% and 17% in the provinces, and was strongly associated with age Vietnam, HIV infection is concentrated in drug users, as well as in specific geographic areas where it has considerable impact on TB notification rates among men aged 15-34 years.

  4. The geography of HIV/AIDS prevalence rates in Botswana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Campbell, Eugene K; Rakgoasi, Serai Dan; Madi-Segwagwe, Banyana C; Fako, Thabo T

    2012-01-01

    Botswana has the second-highest human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rate in the world, with one in three adults infected. However, there is significant geographic variation at the district level and HIV prevalence is heterogeneous with the highest prevalence recorded in Selebi-Phikwe and North East. There is a lack of age-and location-adjusted prevalence maps that could be used for targeting HIV educational programs and efficient allocation of resources to higher risk groups. We used a nationally representative household survey to investigate and explain district level inequalities in HIV rates. A Bayesian geoadditive mixed model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques was applied to map the geographic distribution of HIV prevalence in the 26 districts, accounting simultaneously for individual, household, and area factors using the 2008 Botswana HIV Impact Survey. Overall, HIV prevalence was 17.6%, which was higher among females (20.4%) than males (14.3%). HIV prevalence was higher in cities and towns (20.3%) than in urban villages and rural areas (16.6% and 16.9%, respectively). We also observed an inverse U-shape association between age and prevalence of HIV, which had a different pattern in males and females. HIV prevalence was lowest among those aged 24 years or less and HIV affected over a third of those aged 25-35 years, before reaching a peak among the 36-49-year age group, after which the rate of HIV infection decreased by more than half among those aged 50 years and over. In a multivariate analysis, there was a statistically significant higher likelihood of HIV among females compared with males, and in clerical workers compared with professionals. The district-specific net spatial effects of HIV indicated a significantly higher HIV rate of 66% (posterior odds ratio of 1.66) in the northeast districts (Selebi-Phikwe, Sowa, and Francistown) and a reduced rate of 27% (posterior odds ratio of 0.73) in Kgalagadi North and Kweneng West districts

  5. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

  6. Prevalence estimates of chronic kidney disease in Canada: results of a nationally representative survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Paul; Vasa, Priya; Brenner, Darren; Iglar, Karl; McFarlane, Phil; Morrison, Howard; Badawi, Alaa

    2013-01-01

    Background: Chronic kidney disease is an important risk factor for death and cardiovascular-related morbidity, but estimates to date of its prevalence in Canada have generally been extrapolated from the prevalence of end-stage renal disease. We used direct measures of kidney function collected from a nationally representative survey population to estimate the prevalence of chronic kidney disease among Canadian adults. Methods: We examined data for 3689 adult participants of cycle 1 of the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2007–2009) for the presence of chronic kidney disease. We also calculated the age-standardized prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors by chronic kidney disease group. We cross-tabulated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with albuminuria status. Results: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease during the period 2007–2009 was 12.5%, representing about 3 million Canadian adults. The estimated prevalence of stage 3–5 disease was 3.1% (0.73 million adults) and albuminuria 10.3% (2.4 million adults). The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and hypertriglyceridemia were all significantly higher among adults with chronic kidney disease than among those without it. The prevalence of albuminuria was high, even among those whose eGFR was 90 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or greater (10.1%) and those without diabetes or hypertension (9.3%). Awareness of kidney dysfunction among adults with stage 3–5 chronic kidney disease was low (12.0%). Interpretation: The prevalence of kidney dysfunction was substantial in the survey population, including individuals without hypertension or diabetes, conditions most likely to prompt screening for kidney dysfunction. These findings highlight the potential for missed opportunities for early intervention and secondary prevention of chronic kidney disease. PMID:23649413

  7. Epidemiology of Eating Disorders : Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink, Frederique R. E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Hoek, Hans W.

    Eating disorders are relatively rare among the general population. This review discusses the literature on the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of eating disorders. We searched online Medline/Pubmed, Embase and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English using several keyterms

  8. College Students' Perceived Disease Risk versus Actual Prevalence Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew Lee; Dickerson, Justin B.; Sosa, Erica T.; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ory, Marcia G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To compare college students' perceived disease risk with disease prevalence rates. Methods: Data were analyzed from 625 college students collected with an Internet-based survey. Paired t-tests were used to separately compare participants' perceived 10-year and lifetime disease risk for 4 diseases: heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and…

  9. National and subnational hypertension prevalence estimates for the Republic of Ireland: better outcome and risk factor data are needed to produce better prevalence estimates.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Barron, Steve

    2014-01-10

    Hypertension is a global public health challenge. National prevalence estimates can conceal important differences in prevalence in subnational areas. This paper aims to develop a consistent set of national and subnational estimates of the prevalence of hypertension in a country with limited data for subnational areas.

  10. Estimating glomerular filtration rate in a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anoop Shankar

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Anoop Shankar1, Kristine E Lee2, Barbara EK Klein2, Paul Muntner3, Peter C Brazy4, Karen J Cruickshanks2,5, F Javier Nieto5, Lorraine G Danforth2, Carla R Schubert2,5, Michael Y Tsai6, Ronald Klein21Department of Community Medicine, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown, WV, USA; 2Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, 4Department of Medicine, 5Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI, USA; 3Department of Community Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, NY, USA; 6Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USABackground: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR-estimating equations are used to determine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD in population-based studies. However, it has been suggested that since the commonly used GFR equations were originally developed from samples of patients with CKD, they underestimate GFR in healthy populations. Few studies have made side-by-side comparisons of the effect of various estimating equations on the prevalence estimates of CKD in a general population sample.Patients and methods: We examined a population-based sample comprising adults from Wisconsin (age, 43–86 years; 56% women. We compared the prevalence of CKD, defined as a GFR of <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 estimated from serum creatinine, by applying various commonly used equations including the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD equation, Cockcroft–Gault (CG equation, and the Mayo equation. We compared the performance of these equations against the CKD definition of cystatin C >1.23 mg/L.Results: We found that the prevalence of CKD varied widely among different GFR equations. Although the prevalence of CKD was 17.2% with the MDRD equation and 16.5% with the CG equation, it was only 4.8% with the Mayo equation. Only 24% of those identified to have GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1

  11. Estimation of social discount rate for Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilma Kazlauskiene

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper seeks to analyse the problematics of estimation of the social discount rate (SDR. The SDR is the critical parameter of cost-benefit analysis, which allows calculating the present value of cost and the benefit of public sector investment projects. Incorrect choice of the SDR can lead to the realisation of ineffective public project or conversely, cost-effective project will be rejected. The relevance of this problem analysis is determined by discussions and different viewpoints of scientists on the choice of the most appropriate approach to determine the SDR and absence of methodically based the SDR on the national level of Lithuania. Methodology/methods: The research is performed by the scientific and methodical literature analysis, systematization, time series and regression analysis. Scientific aim: The aim of the article is to calculate the SDR based on the statistical data of Lithuania. Findings: The analysis of methods of SDR determination, as well as the researches performed by foreign researchers, allows stating that the social rate of time preference (SRTP approach is the most appropriate. The SDR, calculated by the SRTP approach, reflects the main purpose of public investment projects, i.e. to enhance social benefit for society, the best. The analyses of SDR determination practice of the foreign countries shows that the SDR level should not be universal for all states. Each country should calculate the SDR based on its own data and apply it for the assessment of public projects. Conclusions: The calculated SDR for Lithuania using the SRTP approach varies between 3.5% and 4.3%. Although it is lower than 5% that is offered by European Commission, this rate is based on the statistical data of Lithuania and should be used for the assessment of the national public projects. Applicatio

  12. The importance of estimating selection bias on prevalence estimates shortly after a disaster.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grievink, Linda; Velden, Peter G van der; Yzermans, C Joris; Roorda, Jan; Stellato, Rebecca K

    2006-01-01

    PURPOSE: The aim was to study selective participation and its effect on prevalence estimates in a health survey of affected residents 3 weeks after a man-made disaster in The Netherlands (May 13, 2000). METHODS: All affected adult residents were invited to participate. Survey (questionnaire) data

  13. The importance of estimating selection bias on prevalence estimates, shortly after a disaster.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grievink, L.; Velden, P.G. van der; Yzermans, C.J.; Roorda, J.; Stellato, R.K.

    2006-01-01

    PURPOSE: The aim was to study selective participation and its effect on prevalence estimates in a health survey of affected residents 3 weeks after a man-made disaster in The Netherlands (May 13, 2000). METHODS: All affected adult residents were invited to participate. Survey (questionnaire) data

  14. Augmented Cross-Sectional Prevalence Testing for Estimating HIV Incidence

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, R.; Lagakos, S. W.

    2010-01-01

    Estimation of an HIV incidence rate based on a cross-sectional sample of individuals evaluated with both a sensitive and less-sensitive diagnostic test offers important advantages to incidence estimation based on a longitudinal cohort study. However, the reliability of the cross-sectional approach has been called into question because of two major concerns. One is the difficulty in obtaining a reliable external approximation for the mean “window period” between detectability of HIV infection ...

  15. Prevalence estimates of combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder: critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Lisa K; Frueh, B Christopher; Acierno, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to provide a critical review of prevalence estimates of combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among military personnel and veterans, and of the relevant factors that may account for the variability of estimates within and across cohorts, including methodological and conceptual factors accounting for differences in prevalence rates across nations, conflicts/wars, and studies. MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases were examined for literature on combat-related PTSD. The following terms were used independently and in combinations in this search: PTSD, combat, veterans, military, epidemiology, prevalence. The point prevalence of combat-related PTSD in US military veterans since the Vietnam War ranged from approximately 2% to 17%. Studies of recent conflicts suggest that combat-related PTSD afflicts between 4% and 17% of US Iraq War veterans, but only 3-6% of returning UK Iraq War veterans. Thus, the prevalence range is narrower and tends to have a lower ceiling among combat veterans of non-US Western nations. Variability in prevalence is likely due to differences in sampling strategies; measurement strategies; inclusion and measurement of the DSM-IV clinically significant impairment criterion; timing and latency of assessment and potential for recall bias; and combat experiences. Prevalence rates are also likely affected by issues related to PTSD course, chronicity, and comorbidity; symptom overlap with other psychiatric disorders; and sociopolitical and cultural factors that may vary over time and by nation. The disorder represents a significant and costly illness to veterans, their families, and society as a whole. Further carefully conceptualized research, however, is needed to advance our understanding of disorder prevalence, as well as associated information on course, phenomenology, protective factors, treatment, and economic costs.

  16. 19 CFR 159.38 - Rates for estimated duties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... TREASURY (CONTINUED) LIQUIDATION OF DUTIES Conversion of Foreign Currency § 159.38 Rates for estimated duties. For purposes of calculating estimated duties, the port director shall use the rate or rates... 19 Customs Duties 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Rates for estimated duties. 159.38 Section 159.38...

  17. [Estimated prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in the Canary Islands].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortea Sevilla, M S; Escandell Bermúdez, M O; Castro Sánchez, J J

    2013-12-01

    To make an initial estimate of the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) among children in the province of Las Palmas (Spain). Descriptive study was conducted on 1,796 children between the ages of 18 and 30 months of age, all part of the Child Health Surveillance of the Canary Islands, more specifically the province of Las Palmas, with a population of 1,090,605. The parents of children involved completed the Spanish version of the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT/ES) in the paediatric clinic. The positive cases were then diagnosed by experts by means of the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADIR) and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). A 0.61% prevalence of ASDs was determined, similar to that reported in previous studies using the same tools. The ratio was six girls for every five boys. This was contrary to the results of previous studies which suggested more boys than girls were affected. This may have been due to the sample size, which will have to be increased in future studies to confirm this outcome. An increased sample size and also spread to other age ranges should be used in order to obtain a more reliable estimate of prevalence. As regards the gender ratio, this could be a result of the small size of the sample researched, and should therefore be confirmed by further studies. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  18. Burden of type 2 diabetes in Mexico: past, current and future prevalence and incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meza, Rafael; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

    2015-12-01

    Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960-2012), and birth-cohort (1920-1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010-2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65-68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57-59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960-2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7-22.5% by 2050, affecting 15-25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Estimates of Incidence and Prevalence of Visual Impairment, Low Vision, and Blindness in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Tiffany; Friedman, David S; Bradley, Chris; Massof, Robert

    2018-01-01

    Updated estimates of the prevalence and incidence rates of low vision and blindness are needed to inform policy makers and develop plans to meet the future demands for low vision rehabilitation services. To provide updated estimates of the incidence and prevalence of low vision and blindness in the United States. Visual acuity measurements as a function of age from the 2007-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with representation of racial and ethnic groups, were used to estimate the prevalence and incidence of visual impairments. Data from 6016 survey participants, ranging in age from younger than 18 years to older than 45 years, were obtained to estimate prevalence rates for different age groups. Incidence and prevalence rates of low vision (best-corrected visual acuity [BCVA] in the better-seeing eye of United States were estimated, using the 2010 US census data by age, from the rate models applied to the census projections for 2017, 2030, and 2050. Data were collected from November 1, 2007, to October 31, 2008. Data analysis took place from March 31, 2016, to March 19, 2017. Prevalence and incidence rates of low vision and blindness in the United States. Of the 6016 people in the study, 1714 (28.4%) were younger than 18 years of age, 2358 (39.1%) were 18 to 44 years of age, and 1944 (32.3%) were 45 years of age or older. There were 2888 male (48%) and 3128 female (52%) participants. The prevalence of low vision and blindness for older adults (≥45 years) in the United States in 2017 is estimated to be 3 894 406 persons (95% CI, 3 034 442-4 862 549 persons) with a BCVA less than 20/40, 1 483 703 persons (95% CI, 968 656-2 370 513 persons) with a BCVA less than 20/60, and 1 082 790 persons (95% CI, 637 771-1 741 864 persons) with a BCVA of 20/200 or less. The estimated 2017 annual incidence (projected from 2010 census data) of low vision and blindness among older adults (≥45 years) in the United States is 481

  20. Republic of Georgia estimates for prevalence of drug use: Randomized response techniques suggest under-estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirtadze, Irma; Otiashvili, David; Tabatadze, Mzia; Vardanashvili, Irina; Sturua, Lela; Zabransky, Tomas; Anthony, James C

    2018-06-01

    Validity of responses in surveys is an important research concern, especially in emerging market economies where surveys in the general population are a novelty, and the level of social control is traditionally higher. The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can be used as a check on response validity when the study aim is to estimate population prevalence of drug experiences and other socially sensitive and/or illegal behaviors. To apply RRT and to study potential under-reporting of drug use in a nation-scale, population-based general population survey of alcohol and other drug use. For this first-ever household survey on addictive substances for the Country of Georgia, we used the multi-stage probability sampling of 18-to-64-year-old household residents of 111 urban and 49 rural areas. During the interviewer-administered assessments, RRT involved pairing of sensitive and non-sensitive questions about drug experiences. Based upon the standard household self-report survey estimate, an estimated 17.3% [95% confidence interval, CI: 15.5%, 19.1%] of Georgian household residents have tried cannabis. The corresponding RRT estimate was 29.9% [95% CI: 24.9%, 34.9%]. The RRT estimates for other drugs such as heroin also were larger than the standard self-report estimates. We remain unsure about what is the "true" value for prevalence of using illegal psychotropic drugs in the Republic of Georgia study population. Our RRT results suggest that standard non-RRT approaches might produce 'under-estimates' or at best, highly conservative, lower-end estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy B Hallett

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available HIV surveillance of generalised epidemics in Africa primarily relies on prevalence at antenatal clinics, but estimates of incidence in the general population would be more useful. Repeated cross-sectional measures of HIV prevalence are now becoming available for general populations in many countries, and we aim to develop and validate methods that use these data to estimate HIV incidence.Two methods were developed that decompose observed changes in prevalence between two serosurveys into the contributions of new infections and mortality. Method 1 uses cohort mortality rates, and method 2 uses information on survival after infection. The performance of these two methods was assessed using simulated data from a mathematical model and actual data from three community-based cohort studies in Africa. Comparison with simulated data indicated that these methods can accurately estimates incidence rates and changes in incidence in a variety of epidemic conditions. Method 1 is simple to implement but relies on locally appropriate mortality data, whilst method 2 can make use of the same survival distribution in a wide range of scenarios. The estimates from both methods are within the 95% confidence intervals of almost all actual measurements of HIV incidence in adults and young people, and the patterns of incidence over age are correctly captured.It is possible to estimate incidence from cross-sectional prevalence data with sufficient accuracy to monitor the HIV epidemic. Although these methods will theoretically work in any context, we have able to test them only in southern and eastern Africa, where HIV epidemics are mature and generalised. The choice of method will depend on the local availability of HIV mortality data.

  2. Sibling rivalry : Estimating cannibalization rates for innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heerde, H.J.; Srinivasan, S.; Dekimpe, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    To evaluate the success of a new product, managers need to determine how much of its new demand is due to cannibalizing the company’s other products, rather than drawing from competition or generating primary demand. A new model allows managers to estimate cannibalization effects and to calculate

  3. Prevalence Rates of the Incubus Phenomenon: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc L. Molendijk

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe incubus phenomenon is a paroxysmal sleep-related disorder characterized by compound hallucinations experienced during brief phases of (apparent wakefulness. The condition has an almost stereotypical presentation, characterized by a hallucinated being that exerts pressure on the thorax, meanwhile carrying out aggressive and/or sexual acts. It tends to be accompanied by sleep paralysis, anxiety, vegetative symptoms, and feelings of suffocation. Its prevalence rate is unknown since, in prior analyses, cases of recurrent isolated sleep paralysis with/without an incubus phenomenon have been pooled together. This is unfortunate, since the incubus phenomenon has a much greater clinical relevance than isolated sleep paralysis.MethodsPubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO were searched for prevalence studies of the incubus phenomenon, and a meta-analysis was performed.ResultsOf the 1,437 unique records, 13 met the inclusion criteria, reporting on 14 (k independent prevalence estimates (total N = 6,079. The pooled lifetime prevalence rate of the incubus phenomenon was 0.19 [95% confidence interval (CI = 0.14–0.25, k = 14, N = 6,079] with heterogeneous estimates over different samples. In selected samples (e.g., patients with a psychiatric disorder, refugees, and students, prevalence rates were nearly four times higher (0.41, 95% CI = 0.25–0.56, k = 4, n = 1,275 than in the random samples (0.11, 95% CI = 0.08–0.14, k = 10, n = 4,804. This difference was significant (P < 0.001.ConclusionThis review and meta-analysis yielded a lifetime prevalence of the incubus phenomenon in the general population of 0.11 and, in selected samples, of 0.41. This is slightly higher than the prevalence rates in previous analyses that included cases of recurrent isolated sleep paralysis without an incubus phenomenon. Based on the condition’s robust clinical presentation and the relatively high prevalence rates, we advocate

  4. Analyse of the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism in the patients with dyspnea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yanxia; Su Jian; Wang Bingsheng; Wu Songhong; Dai Ruiting; Cao Caixia

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with dyspnea and to explore the predisposing causes and its early clinical manifestations. Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 461 patients with dyspnea performed 99 Tc m -macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion imaging and 99 Tc m -DTPA ventilation imaging or 99 Tc m -MAA perfusion imaging and chest X-ray examination. Among them, 48 cases without apparent disease were considered as control group, whereas the remaining patients with other underlying illnesses as patients group. PEMS statistics software package was used for estimation of prevalence rate, χ 2 test and PE risk factor analysis. Results: There were 251 PE patients among 461 patients, the prevalence rate [ (π)=95% confidence interval (CI) ] was: lower extremity thrombosis and varicosity (80.79-95.47 ), post cesarean section (55.64-87.12), lower extremity bone surgery or fracture (52.76-87.27 ), cancer operation (52.19-78.19), atrial fibrillation or heart failure (53.30-74.88), obesity (23.14-50.20), post abdominal surgery (20.23-59.43), diabetes (19.12-63.95), chronic bronchitis (1.80-23.06), normal control group (3.47-22.66). Except chronic bronchitis, PE prevalence rate between patients group and control group had significant difference (P 99 Tc m -MAA and DTPA lung imaging should be done as early as possible. (authors)

  5. Calculation of prevalence estimates through differential equations: application to stroke-related disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mar, Javier; Sainz-Ezkerra, María; Moler-Cuiral, Jose Antonio

    2008-01-01

    Neurological diseases now make up 6.3% of the global burden of disease mainly because they cause disability. To assess disability, prevalence estimates are needed. The objective of this study is to apply a method based on differential equations to calculate the prevalence of stroke-related disability. On the basis of a flow diagram, a set of differential equations for each age group was constructed. The linear system was solved analytically and numerically. The parameters of the system were obtained from the literature. The model was validated and calibrated by comparison with previous results. The stroke prevalence rate per 100,000 men was 828, and the rate for stroke-related disability was 331. The rates steadily rose with age, but the group between the ages of 65 and 74 years had the highest total number of individuals. Differential equations are useful to represent the natural history of neurological diseases and to make possible the calculation of the prevalence for the various states of disability. In our experience, when compared with the results obtained by Markov models, the benefit of the continuous use of time outweighs the mathematical requirements of our model. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  6. Period Prevalence and Reporting Rate of Needlestick Injuries to Nurses in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei, Satar; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Zandian, Hamed; Fathi, Afshin; Nouri, Bijan

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to provide a precise estimate of the period prevalence of needlestick injuries (NSI) among nurses working in hospitals in Iran and the reporting rate of NSI to nurse managers. We searched both international (PubMed, Scopus and the Institute for Scientific Information) and Iranian (Scientific Information Database, Iranmedex and Magiran) scientific databases to find studies published from 2000 to 2016 of NSI among Iranian nurses. The following keywords in Persian and English were used: "needle-stick" or "needle stick" or "needlestick," with and without "injury" or "injuries," "prevalence" or "frequency," "nurses" or "nursing staff," and "Iran." In a sample of 21 articles with 6,480 participants, we estimated that the overall 1-year period prevalence of NSI was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35-53%) among Iranian nurses. The overall 1-year period prevalence of reporting NSI to nurse managers was 42% (95% CI, 33-52%). In meta-regression analysis, sample size, mean age, years of experience, and gender ratio were not associated with prevalence of NSI or reporting rate. The year of data collection was positively associated with period prevalence of NSI (p managers. Results indicated a high NSI period prevalence and low NSI reporting rate among nurses in Iran. Thus, effective interventions are required in hospitals in Iran to reduce the prevalence and increase the reporting rate of NSI. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Impact of Disease Prevalence Adjustment on Hospitalization Rates for Chronic Ambulatory Care-Sensitive Conditions in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollmanns, Johannes; Romano, Patrick S; Weyermann, Maria; Geraedts, Max; Drösler, Saskia E

    2018-04-01

    To explore effects of disease prevalence adjustment on ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalization (ACSH) rates used for quality comparisons. County-level hospital administrative data on adults discharged from German hospitals in 2011 and prevalence estimates based on administrative ambulatory diagnosis data were used. A retrospective cross-sectional study using in- and outpatient secondary data was performed. Hospitalization data for hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma were obtained from the German Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) database. Prevalence estimates were obtained from the German Central Research Institute of Ambulatory Health Care. Crude hospitalization rates varied substantially across counties (coefficients of variation [CV] 28-37 percent across conditions); this variation was reduced by prevalence adjustment (CV 21-28 percent). Prevalence explained 40-50 percent of the observed variation (r = 0.65-0.70) in ACSH rates for all conditions except asthma (r = 0.07). Between 30 percent and 38 percent of areas moved into or outside condition-specific control limits with prevalence adjustment. Unadjusted ACSH rates should be used with caution for high-stakes public reporting as differences in prevalence may have a marked impact. Prevalence adjustment should be considered in models analyzing ACSH. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  8. Estimation of restaurant solid waste generation rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heck, H.H.; Major, I.

    2002-01-01

    Most solid waste utilities try to create a billing schedule that is proportional to solid waste generation rates. This research was trying to determine if the current billing rate structure was appropriate or if a different rate structure should be implemented. A multiple regression model with forward stepwise addition was developed which accurately predicts weekly solid waste generation rates for restaurants. The model was based on a study of daily solid waste generation at twenty-one different businesses. The weight and volume of solid waste generated was measure daily for two weeks during the winter and two weeks during the summer. Researchers followed the collection truck and measured the volume and weight of the container contents. Data was collected on the following independent variables describing each establishment; weight of waste per collection, volume per collection, container utilization factor, building area, contract haulers bill, yearly property tax, yearly solid waste tax, average number of collections per week, type of restaurant, modal number of collections per week, storage container size, waste density, number of employees, number of hours open per week, and weekly collection capacity (collections per week times storage container size). Independent variables were added to the regression equation based on their partial correlation coefficient and confidence level. The regression equations developed had correlation coefficients of 0.87 to 1.00, which was much better than the correlation coefficient (0.84) of an existing model DeGeare and Ongerth (1971) and a correlation coefficient of 0.54 based on the current solid waste disposal tax. (author)

  9. A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congdon Peter

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states and for

  10. Estimating the tumble rates of galaxy halos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonson, G.F.; Tohline, J.E.

    1983-01-01

    It has previously been demonstrated that cold gas in a static spheroidal galaxy will damp to a preferred plane, in which the angular momentum vector of the gas is aligned with the symmetry axis of the potential, through dissipative processes. We show now that, if the same galaxy rigidly tumbles about a nonsymmetry axis, the preferred orientation of the gas can become a permanently and smoothly warped sheet, in which rings of gas at large radii may be fully orthogonal to those near the galaxy's core. Detailed numerical orbit calculations closely match an analytic prediction made previously for the structure of the warp. This structure depends primarily on the eccentricity, density profile, and tumble rate of the spheroid. We show that the tumble rate can now be determined for a galaxy containing a significantly warped disk. Ordinary observations used in conjunction with graphs such as those we present, yield at least firm lower limits to the tumble periods of these objects. We have applied this method to the two peculiar systems NGC 5128 and NGC 2685 and found that, if they are prolate systems supporting permanently warped gaseous disks, they must tumble with periods near 5 x 10 9 yr and 2 x 10 9 yr respectively. In a preliminary investigation, we also find that the massive, unseen halos surrounding spiral galaxies must tumble with periods longer than or on the same order as those of the elliptical galaxies

  11. Interpolation between spatial frameworks: an application of process convolution to estimating neighbourhood disease prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-04-01

    Health data may be collected across one spatial framework (e.g. health provider agencies), but contrasts in health over another spatial framework (neighbourhoods) may be of policy interest. In the UK, population prevalence totals for chronic diseases are provided for populations served by general practitioner practices, but not for neighbourhoods (small areas of circa 1500 people), raising the question whether data for one framework can be used to provide spatially interpolated estimates of disease prevalence for the other. A discrete process convolution is applied to this end and has advantages when there are a relatively large number of area units in one or other framework. Additionally, the interpolation is modified to take account of the observed neighbourhood indicators (e.g. hospitalisation rates) of neighbourhood disease prevalence. These are reflective indicators of neighbourhood prevalence viewed as a latent construct. An illustrative application is to prevalence of psychosis in northeast London, containing 190 general practitioner practices and 562 neighbourhoods, including an assessment of sensitivity to kernel choice (e.g. normal vs exponential). This application illustrates how a zero-inflated Poisson can be used as the likelihood model for a reflective indicator.

  12. Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Chaimowicz

    Full Text Available The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries' populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil.We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815. Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%.The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations.

  13. Estimating progression rates for human papillomavirus infection from epidemiological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Gay, Nigel; Soldan, Kate; Hong Choi, Yoon; Edmunds, William John

    2010-01-01

    A Markov model was constructed in order to estimate type-specific rates of cervical lesion progression and regression in women with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV). The model was fitted to age- and type-specific data regarding the HPV DNA and cytological status of women undergoing cervical screening in a recent screening trial, as well as cervical cancer incidence. It incorporates different assumptions about the way lesions regress, the accuracy of cytological screening, the specificity of HPV DNA testing, and the age-specific prevalence of HPV infection. Combinations of assumptions generate 162 scenarios for squamous cell carcinomas and 54 scenarios for adenocarcinomas. Simulating an unscreened cohort of women infected with high-risk HPV indicates that the probability of an infection continuing to persist and to develop into invasive cancer depends on the length of time it has already persisted. The scenarios and parameter sets that produce the best fit to available epidemiological data provide a basis for modeling the natural history of HPV infection and disease.

  14. Estimating forest conversion rates with annual forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis A. Roesch

    2009-01-01

    The rate of land-use conversion from forest to nonforest or natural forest to forest plantation is of interest for forest certification purposes and also as part of the process of assessing forest sustainability. Conversion rates can be estimated from remeasured inventory plots in general, but the emphasis here is on annual inventory data. A new estimator is proposed...

  15. On Estimating Marginal Tax Rates for U.S. States

    OpenAIRE

    Reed, W. Robert; Rogers, Cynthia L; Skidmore, Mark

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a procedure for generating state-specific time-varying estimates of marginal tax rates (MTRs). Most estimates of MTRs follow a procedure developed by Koester and Kormendi (1989) (K&K). Unfortunately, the time-invariant nature of the K&K estimates precludes their use as explanatory variables in panel data studies with fixed effects. Furthermore, the associated MTR estimates are not explicitly linked to statutory tax parameters. Our approach addresses both shortcomings. Usin...

  16. An examination of healthy aging across a conceptual continuum: prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Sara J; Jette, Alan M; Connell, Cathleen M

    2012-06-01

    Although the notion of healthy aging has gained wide acceptance in gerontology, measuring the phenomenon is challenging. Guided by a prominent conceptualization of healthy aging, we examined how shifting from a more to less stringent definition of healthy aging influences prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity. Data are from adults aged 65 years and older who participated in the Health and Retirement Study. We examined four operational definitions of healthy aging. For each, we calculated prevalence estimates and examined the odds of healthy aging by age, education, gender, and race-ethnicity in 2006. We also examined the association between healthy aging and both self-rated health and death. Across definitions, the prevalence of healthy aging ranged from 3.3% to 35.5%. For all definitions, those classified as experiencing healthy aging had lower odds of fair or poor self-rated health and death over an 8-year period. The odds of being classified as "healthy" were lower among those of advanced age, those with less education, and women than for their corresponding counterparts across all definitions. Moving across the conceptual continuum--from a more to less rigid definition of healthy aging--markedly increases the measured prevalence of healthy aging. Importantly, results suggest that all examined definitions identified a subgroup of older adults who had substantially lower odds of reporting fair or poor health and dying over an 8-year period, providing evidence of the validity of our definitions. Conceptualizations that emphasize symptomatic disease and functional health may be particularly useful for public health purposes.

  17. Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes

    OpenAIRE

    Hlušek, Martin

    2002-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon.

  18. Use of Hedonic Prices to Estimate Capitalization Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Gaetano Lisi

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model of income capitalization is developed where hedonic prices play a key role in estimating the going-in capitalization rate. Precisely, the hedonic functions for rental and selling prices are introduced into a basic model of income capitalization. From the modified model, it is possible to derive a direct relationship between hedonic prices and capitalization rate. An advantage of the proposed approach is that estimation of the capitalization rate can be made without cons...

  19. Indicadores básicos de saúde infantil em área urbana no extremo sul do Brasil: estimando prevalências e avaliando diferenciais Basic indicators of child health in an urban area in southern Brazil: estimating prevalence rates and evaluating differentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juraci A. Cesar

    2006-12-01

    -sectional population studies were carried out in the city. Interviewers were previously trained and applied standardized questionnaires during visits to families with children under 5 years old. The following variables were investigated: family income, maternal education, type of construction of home (wooden/masonry etc., availability of toilet, running water, sewage system and domestic appliances. Data collected on the children themselves included number of antenatal consultations and age at first antenatal, type of delivery and medical care received during delivery, breastfeeding and dietary patterns, morbidity and health services utilization. Children were weighed and measured for height/length. Comparisons of frequencies between the two datasets were made using the chi-square test. RESULTS: In 1995, 395 children were studied and in 2004 there were 384. During the intervening period improvements had taken place in type of construction, number of homes with flush toilet, the availability of running water and in breastfeeding pattern and duration. The frequency of diarrhea reduced, while rates of basic vaccination coverage, growth monitoring, patients in possession of their own medical cards and reporting of birth weights all increased. There was a deterioration in families' purchasing power and in the mean number of antenatal consultations. The prevalence of childhood obesity increased by 92%, while the incidence of malnutrition remained practically unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing health indicators from the two periods revealed that, in addition to improvements in the majority of the indicators assessed, there had been a substantial increase in the prevalence of childhood obesity.

  20. Comparison of Prevalence- and Smoking Impact Ratio-Based Methods of Estimating Smoking-Attributable Fractions of Deaths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung Ae Kong

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. Estimating the smoking-attributable burden is important for public health policy. Typically, prevalence- or smoking impact ratio (SIR-based methods are used to derive estimates, but there is controversy over which method is more appropriate for country-specific estimates. We compared smoking-attributable fractions (SAFs of deaths estimated by these two methods. Methods: To estimate SAFs in 2012, we used several different prevalence-based approaches using no lag and 10- and 20-year lags. For the SIR-based method, we obtained lung cancer mortality rates from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS and from the United States-based Cancer Prevention Study-II (CPS-II. The relative risks for the diseases associated with smoking were also obtained from these cohort studies. Results: For males, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were similar to those obtained using prevalence-based methods. For females, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were markedly greater than all prevalence-based SAFs. Differences in prevalence-based SAFs by time-lag period were minimal among males, but SAFs obtained using longer-lagged prevalence periods were significantly larger among females. SAFs obtained using CPS-II-based SIRs were lower than KCPS-based SAFs by >15 percentage points for most diseases, with the exceptions of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Conclusions: SAFs obtained using prevalence- and SIR-based methods were similar for males. However, neither prevalence-based nor SIR-based methods resulted in precise SAFs among females. The characteristics of the study population should be carefully considered when choosing a method to estimate SAF.

  1. Child maltreatment in Germany: prevalence rates in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Andreas; Brown, Rebecca C; Plener, Paul L; Brähler, Elmar; Fegert, Jörg M

    2017-01-01

    Child maltreatment and its consequences are considered a major public health problem. So far, there is only one study from Germany reporting prevalence rates on different types of maltreatment. A representative sample of the German general population was examined for experiences of child maltreatment using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) between September and November 2016. A total of 2510 (53.3% female) participants between 14 and 94 years (M = 48.8 years) were enrolled. Besides the CTQ, a range of sociodemographic information was collected. The interrelatedness of different types of maltreatment was examined using configuration analysis and predictors for maltreatment were identified by performing binary logistic regression analyses. Overall, 2.6% (f: 3.9%, m: 1.2%) of all participants reported severe emotional abuse, 3.3% (f: 3.4%, m: 3.3%) severe physical abuse, 2.3% (f: 3.7%, m: 0.7%) severe sexual abuse, 7.1% (f: 8.1%, m: 5.9%) severe emotional neglect and 9% (f: 9.2%, m: 8.9%) severe physical neglect. Women were more likely to report at least moderate sexual and emotional abuse than men. The largest difference between age groups was reported for physical neglect, with participants aged over 70 years reporting the highest rates. Participants who reported childhood maltreatment were more likely to be unemployed or have lower educational outcomes. The most common combination of maltreatment types were physical and emotional neglect, all five types of maltreatment combined and physical and emotional neglect and physical abuse combined. Child maltreatment, especially physical neglect is common in the German population. Women seem to be at greater risk for sexual and emotional abuse than men. Knowledge about different types of maltreatment based on the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) can help to put findings of future studies into an epidemiological and societal context.

  2. Underreporting of BMI in adults and its effect on obesity prevalence estimations in the period 1998 to 2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, Tommy L S; Viet, A Lucie; Kroesbergen, Ike H T; Seidell, Jacob C

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify the determinants of underreporting BMI and to evaluate the possibilities of using self-reported data for valid obesity prevalence rate estimations. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: A cross-sectional monitoring health survey was carried out between 1998 and 2002, and a review

  3. Estimation of the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in South Korea, Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantelis, Peter C.; Kennedy, Daniel P.

    2016-01-01

    Two-phase designs in epidemiological studies of autism prevalence introduce methodological complications that can severely limit the precision of resulting estimates. If the assumptions used to derive the prevalence estimate are invalid or if the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions is not properly accounted for in the statistical inference…

  4. Three-Axis Attitude Estimation Using Rate-Integrating Gyroscopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis

    2016-01-01

    Traditionally, attitude estimation has been performed using a combination of external attitude sensors and internal three-axis gyroscopes. There are many studies of three-axis attitude estimation using gyros that read angular rates. Rate-integrating gyros measure integrated rates or angular displacements, but three-axis attitude estimation using these types of gyros has not been as fully investigated. This paper derives a Kalman filtering framework for attitude estimation using attitude sensors coupled with rate- integrating gyroscopes. In order to account for correlations introduced by using these gyros, the state vector must be augmented, compared with filters using traditional gyros that read angular rates. Two filters are derived in this paper. The first uses an augmented state-vector form that estimates attitude, gyro biases, and gyro angular displacements. The second ignores correlations, leading to a filter that estimates attitude and gyro biases only. Simulation comparisons are shown for both filters. The work presented in this paper focuses only on attitude estimation using rate-integrating gyros, but it can easily be extended to other applications such as inertial navigation, which estimates attitude and position.

  5. Prolonged decay of molecular rate estimates for metazoan mitochondrial DNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martyna Molak

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary timescales can be estimated from genetic data using the molecular clock, often calibrated by fossil or geological evidence. However, estimates of molecular rates in mitochondrial DNA appear to scale negatively with the age of the clock calibration. Although such a pattern has been observed in a limited range of data sets, it has not been studied on a large scale in metazoans. In addition, there is uncertainty over the temporal extent of the time-dependent pattern in rate estimates. Here we present a meta-analysis of 239 rate estimates from metazoans, representing a range of timescales and taxonomic groups. We found evidence of time-dependent rates in both coding and non-coding mitochondrial markers, in every group of animals that we studied. The negative relationship between the estimated rate and time persisted across a much wider range of calibration times than previously suggested. This indicates that, over long time frames, purifying selection gives way to mutational saturation as the main driver of time-dependent biases in rate estimates. The results of our study stress the importance of accounting for time-dependent biases in estimating mitochondrial rates regardless of the timescale over which they are inferred.

  6. Estimating monotonic rates from biological data using local linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olito, Colin; White, Craig R; Marshall, Dustin J; Barneche, Diego R

    2017-03-01

    Accessing many fundamental questions in biology begins with empirical estimation of simple monotonic rates of underlying biological processes. Across a variety of disciplines, ranging from physiology to biogeochemistry, these rates are routinely estimated from non-linear and noisy time series data using linear regression and ad hoc manual truncation of non-linearities. Here, we introduce the R package LoLinR, a flexible toolkit to implement local linear regression techniques to objectively and reproducibly estimate monotonic biological rates from non-linear time series data, and demonstrate possible applications using metabolic rate data. LoLinR provides methods to easily and reliably estimate monotonic rates from time series data in a way that is statistically robust, facilitates reproducible research and is applicable to a wide variety of research disciplines in the biological sciences. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  7. Introduction to State Estimation of High-Rate System Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jonathan; Laflamme, Simon; Dodson, Jacob; Joyce, Bryan

    2018-01-13

    Engineering systems experiencing high-rate dynamic events, including airbags, debris detection, and active blast protection systems, could benefit from real-time observability for enhanced performance. However, the task of high-rate state estimation is challenging, in particular for real-time applications where the rate of the observer's convergence needs to be in the microsecond range. This paper identifies the challenges of state estimation of high-rate systems and discusses the fundamental characteristics of high-rate systems. A survey of applications and methods for estimators that have the potential to produce accurate estimations for a complex system experiencing highly dynamic events is presented. It is argued that adaptive observers are important to this research. In particular, adaptive data-driven observers are advantageous due to their adaptability and lack of dependence on the system model.

  8. Mental health of a police force: estimating prevalence of work-related depression in Australia without a direct national measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Katrina J; Rodwell, John J; Noblet, Andrew J

    2012-06-01

    The risk of work-related depression in Australia was estimated based on a survey of 631 police officers. Psychological wellbeing and psychological distress items were mapped onto a measure of depression to identify optimal cutoff points. Based on a sample of police officers, Australian workers, in general, are at risk of depression when general psychological wellbeing is considerably compromised. Large-scale estimation of work-related depression in the broader population of employed persons in Australia is reasonable. The relatively high prevalence of depression among police officers emphasizes the need to examine prevalence rates of depression among Australian employees.

  9. Estimating the encounter rate variance in distance sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fewster, R.M.; Buckland, S.T.; Burnham, K.P.; Borchers, D.L.; Jupp, P.E.; Laake, J.L.; Thomas, L.

    2009-01-01

    The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias. ?? 2008, The International Biometric Society.

  10. The Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Romania

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu; Vasile Dedu

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Romania, respectively the real exchange rate consistent with the macroeconomic balance, which is achieved when the economy is operating at full employment and low inflation (internal balance) and has a current account that is sustainable (external balance). This equilibrium real exchange rate is very important for an economy because deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value can affect the competitiveness ...

  11. Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Long S.; Kedem, Benjamin

    1990-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.

  12. Equations to Estimate Creatinine Excretion Rate : The CKD Epidemiology Collaboration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ix, Joachim H.; Wassel, Christina L.; Stevens, Lesley A.; Beck, Gerald J.; Froissart, Marc; Navis, Gerjan; Rodby, Roger; Torres, Vicente E.; Zhang, Yaping (Lucy); Greene, Tom; Levey, Andrew S.

    Background and objectives Creatinine excretion rate (CER) indicates timed urine collection accuracy. Although equations to estimate CER exist, their bias and precision are untested and none simultaneously include age, sex, race, and weight. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Participants

  13. A prospective longitudinal study to estimate the prevalence of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sally S. Zahra

    2016-05-13

    May 13, 2016 ... reasoning, abstract/visual reasoning, quantitative reasoning and short term ... bined TolterodineTM-selective anticholinergic (tablets 2mg) taken orally one hour ..... The result of almost similar prevalence of overweight and obesity among ... However, we must draw attention that although our results show a ...

  14. On Improving Convergence Rates for Nonnegative Kernel Density Estimators

    OpenAIRE

    Terrell, George R.; Scott, David W.

    1980-01-01

    To improve the rate of decrease of integrated mean square error for nonparametric kernel density estimators beyond $0(n^{-\\frac{4}{5}}),$ we must relax the constraint that the density estimate be a bonafide density function, that is, be nonnegative and integrate to one. All current methods for kernel (and orthogonal series) estimators relax the nonnegativity constraint. In this paper we show how to achieve similar improvement by relaxing the integral constraint only. This is important in appl...

  15. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  16. Multiresolution Motion Estimation for Low-Rate Video Frame Interpolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hezerul Abdul Karim

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Interpolation of video frames with the purpose of increasing the frame rate requires the estimation of motion in the image so as to interpolate pixels along the path of the objects. In this paper, the specific challenges of low-rate video frame interpolation are illustrated by choosing one well-performing algorithm for high-frame-rate interpolation (Castango 1996 and applying it to low frame rates. The degradation of performance is illustrated by comparing the original algorithm, the algorithm adapted to low frame rate, and simple averaging. To overcome the particular challenges of low-frame-rate interpolation, two algorithms based on multiresolution motion estimation are developed and compared on objective and subjective basis and shown to provide an elegant solution to the specific challenges of low-frame-rate video interpolation.

  17. Effect of survey design and catch rate estimation on total catch estimates in Chinook salmon fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

    2012-01-01

    Roving–roving and roving–access creel surveys are the primary techniques used to obtain information on harvest of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho sport fisheries. Once interviews are conducted using roving–roving or roving–access survey designs, mean catch rate can be estimated with the ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator, the mean-of-ratios (MOR) estimator, or the MOR estimator with exclusion of short-duration (≤0.5 h) trips. Our objective was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates obtained from use of the two survey designs and three catch rate estimators for Idaho Chinook salmon fisheries. Information on angling populations was obtained by direct visual observation of portions of Chinook salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over an 18-d period. Based on data from the angling populations, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the properties of the catch rate estimators and survey designs. Among the three estimators, the ROM estimator provided the most accurate and precise estimates of mean catch rate and total catch for both roving–roving and roving–access surveys. On average, the root mean square error of simulated total catch estimates was 1.42 times greater and relative bias was 160.13 times greater for roving–roving surveys than for roving–access surveys. Length-of-stay bias and nonstationary catch rates in roving–roving surveys both appeared to affect catch rate and total catch estimates. Our results suggest that use of the ROM estimator in combination with an estimate of angler effort provided the least biased and most precise estimates of total catch for both survey designs. However, roving–access surveys were more accurate than roving–roving surveys for Chinook salmon fisheries in Idaho.

  18. A new approach for estimation of component failure rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

    1999-01-01

    In the paper, a formal method for component failure rate estimation is described, which is proposed to be used for components, for which no specific numerical data necessary for probabilistic estimation exist. The framework of the method is the Bayesian updating procedure. A prior distribution is selected from a generic database, whereas the likelihood distribution is assessed from specific data on component state using principles of fuzzy logic theory. With the proposed method the component failure rate estimation is based on a much larger quantity of information compared to presently used classical methods.(author)

  19. Estimating stutter rates for Y-STR alleles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel Meyer; Olofsson, Jill Katharina; Mogensen, Helle Smidt

    2011-01-01

    Stutter peaks are artefacts that arise during PCR amplification of short tandem repeats. Stutter peaks are especially important in forensic case work with DNA mixtures. The aim of the study was primarily to estimate the stutter rates of the AmpFlSTR Yfiler kit. We found that the stutter rates...

  20. Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    I demonstrate that econometric estimations of nominal interest rate rules may tell little, if anything, about an economy's determinacy properties. In particular, correct inference about the interest-rate response to inflation provides no information about determinacy. Instead, it could reveal...

  1. Improving estimates of the prevalence of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting among migrants in Western countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Livia Elisa Ortensi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C is an emerging topic in immigrant countries as a consequence of the increasing proportion of African women in overseas communities. Objective: While the prevalence of FGM/C is routinely measured in practicing countries, the prevalence of the phenomenon in western countries is substantially unknown, as no standardized methods exist yet for immigrant countries. The aim of this paper is to present an improved method of indirect estimation of the prevalence of FGM/C among first generation migrants based on a migrant selection hypothesis. A criterion to assess reliability of indirect estimates is also provided. Methods: The method is based on data from Demographic Health Surveys (DHS and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS. Migrants' Selection Hypothesis is used to correct national prevalence estimates and obtain an improved estimation of prevalence among overseas communities. Results: The application of the selection hypothesis modifies national estimates, usually predicting a lower occurrence of FGM/C among immigrants than in their respective practicing countries. A comparison of direct and indirect estimations confirms that the method correctly predicts the direction of the variation in the expected prevalence and satisfactorily approximates direct estimates. Conclusions: Given its wide applicability, this method would be a useful instrument to estimate FGM/C occurrence among first generation immigrants and provide corresponding support for policies in countries where information from ad hoc surveys is unavailable.

  2. National South African HIV prevalence estimates robust despite ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Approximately 18% of all people living with HIV in 2013 were estimated to live in South Africa (SA),[1] which ... 1 Research Department of Infection and Population Health, Institute for Global Health, University College London, UK.

  3. Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brabec, M.; Jilek, K.

    2004-01-01

    A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements

  4. Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Molavi Vardanjani

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Materials and Methods: Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs. In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Results: Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807, 20964 (15835–28268, and 14485 (11188–19293, respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744 was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898 was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638. Conclusion: A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

  5. Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

    2018-01-01

    Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003-2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited-time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051-18807), 20964 (15835-28268), and 14485 (11188-19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150-134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55-59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262-41638). A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

  6. Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

    2018-01-01

    Background: Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Materials and Methods: Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Results: Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807), 20964 (15835–28268), and 14485 (11188–19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638). Conclusion: A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors. PMID:29456991

  7. High prevalence rate of left superior vena cava determined by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-10-08

    Oct 8, 2013 ... persistent LSVC (6). There was a similar high prevalence, in the current study, of persistent LSVC in patients with tetralogy of. Fallot and coarctation of the aorta when compared to other studies (6, 8). This can be explained by the fact that the patient sample in the current study with these lesions was small.

  8. Prevalence Rate and Risk Factors of Depression in Outpatients with Premature Ejaculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiansheng Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence rate and risk factors of depression in outpatients who were diagnosed with PE. Therefore, between September 2009 and September 2011, 1801 outpatients at andrology clinics were enrolled and consented to participate in our survey by completed a verbal questionnaire. It included the following: (1 demographic data (e.g., age, body mass index, (2 PE duration, medical history, and sexual history, (3 self-estimated intravaginal ejaculatory latency times, (4 the Zung Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS, and (5 the National Institute of Health Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index (NIH-CPSI and (6 the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5. The results showed that a total of 1,206 patients were diagnosed with PE. The prevalence rate of depression in these PE patients was 26.78%. Depression was associated with PE duration, NIH-CPSI score, and IIEF-5 score. Risk factors for depression specifically included PE durations for 13–24, 25–60, or ≥61 months, CPSI scores of 15–30 or ≥31, and IIEF-5 scores <22. These findings suggested that several associated factors (PE duration, CPSI scores, and IIEF-5 scores were the risk factors of depression in men with PE.

  9. Improving Accuracy of Influenza-Associated Hospitalization Rate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Carrie; Kirley, Pam Daily; Aragon, Deborah; Meek, James; Farley, Monica M.; Ryan, Patricia; Collins, Jim; Lynfield, Ruth; Baumbach, Joan; Zansky, Shelley; Bennett, Nancy M.; Fowler, Brian; Thomas, Ann; Lindegren, Mary L.; Atkinson, Annette; Finelli, Lyn; Chaves, Sandra S.

    2015-01-01

    Diagnostic test sensitivity affects rate estimates for laboratory-confirmed influenza–associated hospitalizations. We used data from FluSurv-NET, a national population-based surveillance system for laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations, to capture diagnostic test type by patient age and influenza season. We calculated observed rates by age group and adjusted rates by test sensitivity. Test sensitivity was lowest in adults >65 years of age. For all ages, reverse transcription PCR was the most sensitive test, and use increased from 65 years. After 2009, hospitalization rates adjusted by test sensitivity were ≈15% higher for children 65 years of age. Test sensitivity adjustments improve the accuracy of hospitalization rate estimates. PMID:26292017

  10. State estimation for networked control systems using fixed data rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qing-Quan; Jin, Fang

    2017-07-01

    This paper investigates state estimation for linear time-invariant systems where sensors and controllers are geographically separated and connected via a bandwidth-limited and errorless communication channel with the fixed data rate. All plant states are quantised, coded and converted together into a codeword in our quantisation and coding scheme. We present necessary and sufficient conditions on the fixed data rate for observability of such systems, and further develop the data-rate theorem. It is shown in our results that there exists a quantisation and coding scheme to ensure observability of the system if the fixed data rate is larger than the lower bound given, which is less conservative than the one in the literature. Furthermore, we also examine the role that the disturbances have on the state estimation problem in the case with data-rate limitations. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  11. Estimated prevalence of dengue viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, 1995 through 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Lyle R; Tomashek, Kay M; Biggerstaff, Brad J

    2012-08-01

    Dengue virus (DENV) nucleic acid amplification testing of blood donations during epidemics in endemic locations, including Puerto Rico, has suggested possible sizable transfusion transmission risk. Estimates of the long-term prevalence of DENV viremic donations will help evaluate the potential magnitude of this risk in Puerto Rico. Estimates of the prevalence of DENV viremia in the Puerto Rican population at large from 1995 through 2010 were derived from dengue case reports and their onset dates obtained from islandwide surveillance, estimates of case underreporting, and extant data on the duration of DENV viremia and the unapparent-to-apparent dengue infection ratio. Under the assumptions that viremia prevalence in blood donors was similar to that of the population at large and that symptomatic persons do not donate, statistical resampling methods were used to estimate the prevalence of dengue viremia in blood donations. Over the 16-year period, the maximum and mean daily prevalences of dengue viremia (per 10,000) in blood donations in Puerto Rico were estimated at 45.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.5-55.4) and 7.0 (95% CI, 3.9-10.1), respectively. Prevalence varied considerably by season and year. These data suggest a substantial prevalence of DENV viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, particularly during outbreaks. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  12. Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B.

    2007-01-01

    This paper takes a new empirical look at the long-standing question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral-level, monthly data and an innovative multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors. This estimator allows for the possibility that traders' forward-looking contracting behavior might condition the way in which exchange r...

  13. Automating proliferation rate estimation from Ki-67 histology images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Lahham, Heba Z.; Alomari, Raja S.; Hiary, Hazem; Chaudhary, Vipin

    2012-03-01

    Breast cancer is the second cause of women death and the most diagnosed female cancer in the US. Proliferation rate estimation (PRE) is one of the prognostic indicators that guide the treatment protocols and it is clinically performed from Ki-67 histopathology images. Automating PRE substantially increases the efficiency of the pathologists. Moreover, presenting a deterministic and reproducible proliferation rate value is crucial to reduce inter-observer variability. To that end, we propose a fully automated CAD system for PRE from the Ki-67 histopathology images. This CAD system is based on a model of three steps: image pre-processing, image clustering, and nuclei segmentation and counting that are finally followed by PRE. The first step is based on customized color modification and color-space transformation. Then, image pixels are clustered by K-Means depending on the features extracted from the images derived from the first step. Finally, nuclei are segmented and counted using global thresholding, mathematical morphology and connected component analysis. Our experimental results on fifty Ki-67-stained histopathology images show a significant agreement between our CAD's automated PRE and the gold standard's one, where the latter is an average between two observers' estimates. The Paired T-Test, for the automated and manual estimates, shows ρ = 0.86, 0.45, 0.8 for the brown nuclei count, blue nuclei count, and proliferation rate, respectively. Thus, our proposed CAD system is as reliable as the pathologist estimating the proliferation rate. Yet, its estimate is reproducible.

  14. Updated Magmatic Flux Rate Estimates for the Hawaii Plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessel, P.

    2013-12-01

    Several studies have estimated the magmatic flux rate along the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain using a variety of methods and arriving at different results. These flux rate estimates have weaknesses because of incomplete data sets and different modeling assumptions, especially for the youngest portion of the chain (little or no quantification of error estimates for the inferred melt flux, making an assessment problematic. Here we re-evaluate the melt flux for the Hawaii plume with the latest gridded data sets (SRTM30+ and FAA 21.1) using several methods, including the optimal robust separator (ORS) and directional median filtering techniques (DiM). We also compute realistic confidence limits on the results. In particular, the DiM technique was specifically developed to aid in the estimation of surface loads that are superimposed on wider bathymetric swells and it provides error estimates on the optimal residuals. Confidence bounds are assigned separately for the estimated surface load (obtained from the ORS regional/residual separation techniques) and the inferred subsurface volume (from gravity-constrained isostasy and plate flexure optimizations). These new and robust estimates will allow us to assess which secondary features in the resulting melt flux curve are significant and should be incorporated when correlating melt flux variations with other geophysical and geochemical observations.

  15. Prevalence, Treatment, and Control Rates of Conventional and Ambulatory Hypertension Across 10 Populations in 3 Continents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melgarejo, Jesus D.; Maestre, Gladys E; Thijs, Lutgarde

    2017-01-01

    Hypertension is a major global health problem, but prevalence rates vary widely among regions. To determine prevalence, treatment, and control rates of hypertension, we measured conventional blood pressure (BP) and 24-hour ambulatory BP in 6546 subjects, aged 40 to 79 years, recruited from 10 com...

  16. Estimating average glandular dose by measuring glandular rate in mammograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goto, Sachiko; Azuma, Yoshiharu; Sumimoto, Tetsuhiro; Eiho, Shigeru

    2003-01-01

    The glandular rate of the breast was objectively measured in order to calculate individual patient exposure dose (average glandular dose) in mammography. By employing image processing techniques and breast-equivalent phantoms with various glandular rate values, a conversion curve for pixel value to glandular rate can be determined by a neural network. Accordingly, the pixel values in clinical mammograms can be converted to the glandular rate value for each pixel. The individual average glandular dose can therefore be calculated using the individual glandular rates on the basis of the dosimetry method employed for quality control in mammography. In the present study, a data set of 100 craniocaudal mammograms from 50 patients was used to evaluate our method. The average glandular rate and average glandular dose of the data set were 41.2% and 1.79 mGy, respectively. The error in calculating the individual glandular rate can be estimated to be less than ±3%. When the calculation error of the glandular rate is taken into consideration, the error in the individual average glandular dose can be estimated to be 13% or less. We feel that our method for determining the glandular rate from mammograms is useful for minimizing subjectivity in the evaluation of patient breast composition. (author)

  17. Distributions of component failure rates estimated from LER data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1985-01-01

    Past analyses of Licensee Event Report (LER) data have noted that component failure rates vary from plant to plant, and have estimated the distributions by two-parameter gamma distributions. In this study, a more complicated distributional form is considered, a mixture of gammas. This could arise if the plants' failure rates cluster into distinct groups. The method was applied to selected published LER data for diesel generators, pumps, valves, and instrumentation and control assemblies. The improved fits from using a mixture rather than a single gamma distribution were minimal, and not statistically significant. There seem to be two possibilities: either explanatory variables affect the failure rates only in a gradual way, not a qualitative way; or, for estimating individual component failure rates, the published LER data have been analyzed to the limit of resolution. 9 refs

  18. Distributions of component failure rates, estimated from LER data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1985-01-01

    Past analyses of Licensee Event Report (LER) data have noted that component failure rates vary from plant to plant, and have estimated the distributions by two-parameter γ distributions. In this study, a more complicated distributional form is considered, a mixture of γs. This could arise if the plants' failure rates cluster into distinct groups. The method was applied to selected published LER data for diesel generators, pumps, valves, and instrumentation and control assemblies. The improved fits from using a mixture rather than a single γ distribution were minimal, and not statistically significant. There seem to be two possibilities: either explanatory variables affect the failure rates only in a gradual way, not a qualitative way; or, for estimating individual component failure rates, the published LER data have been analyzed to the limit of resolution

  19. Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanner, Meridith H; Links, Jonathan M; Meltzer, Martin I; Scheulen, James J; Kelen, Gabor D

    2011-01-01

    Published employee absenteeism estimates during an influenza pandemic range from 10 to 40 percent. The purpose of this study was to estimate daily employee absenteeism through the duration of an influenza pandemic and to determine the relative impact of key variables used to derive the estimates. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluWorkLoss program, the authors estimated the number of absent employees on any given day over the course of a simulated 8-week pandemic wave by using varying attack rates. Employee data from a university with a large academic health system were used. Sensitivity of the program outputs to variation in predictor (inputs) values was assessed. Finally, the authors examined and documented the algorithmic sequence of the program. Using a 35 percent attack rate, a total of 47,270 workdays (or 3.4 percent of all available workdays) would be lost over the course of an 8-week pandemic among a population of 35,026 employees. The highest (peak) daily absenteeism estimate was 5.8 percent (minimum 4.8 percent; maximum 7.4 percent). Sensitivity analysis revealed that varying days missed for nonhospitalized illness had the greatest potential effect on peak absence rate (3.1 to 17.2 percent). Peak absence with 15 and 25 percent attack rates were 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The impact of an influenza pandemic on employee availability may be less than originally thought, even with a high attack rate. These data are generalizable and are not specific to institutions of higher education or medical centers. Thus, these findings provide realistic and useful estimates for influenza pandemic planning for most organizations.

  20. Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

  1. Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Congdon

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care areas.

  2. Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-10-14

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas.

  3. Estimation of flow rates through intergranular stress corrosion cracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, R.P.; Norris, D.M.

    1984-01-01

    Experimental studies of critical two-phase water flow, through simulated and actual intergranular stress corrosion cracks, were performed to obtain data to evaluate a leak flow rate model and investigate acoustic transducer effectiveness in detecting and sizing leaks. The experimental program included a parametric study of the effects of crack geometry, fluid stagnation pressure and temperature, and crack surface roughness on leak flow rate. In addition, leak detection, location, and leak size estimation capabilities of several different acoustic transducers were evaluated as functions of leak rate and transducer position. This paper presents flow rate data for several different cracks and fluid conditions. It also presents the minimum flow rate detected with the acoustic sensors and a relationship between acoustic signal strength and leak flow rate

  4. Prevalence rates of ADIPOQ polymorphisms in Indian population and a comparison with other populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandhya Kiran Pemmasani

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The adiponectin gene, ADIPOQ, encodes an adipocytokine, known as adiponectin hormone. This hormone is known to be associated with insulin sensitization, fat metabolism, immunity, and inflammatory response. Polymorphisms in ADIPOQ gene lower the adiponectin levels, increasing the risk for diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Aims: The study aimed to calculate the prevalence rates of ADIPOQ polymorphisms in Indian population and to compare those prevalence rates with that of other populations. Subjects and Methods: Microarray-based genotypic data of 14 ADIPOQ polymorphisms from 703 individuals of Indian origin were used. Statistical Analysis Used: Frequency estimation, identity-by-descent, Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, Chi-square test of significance were used for statistical analysis. Results: Allelic and genotypic frequencies of ADIPOQ polymorphisms, Chi-square tests of significance for allelic and genotypic frequencies across various populations. Conclusions: East Asians are very different from Indians in terms of allelic and genotypic frequencies of ADIPOQ polymorphisms. Europeans have similar genotypic and allelic patterns with Indians. Admixture Americans and Africans also showed significant differences with polymorphisms of the Indian population.

  5. Bayes estimation of the general hazard rate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarhan, A.

    1999-01-01

    In reliability theory and life testing models, the life time distributions are often specified by choosing a relevant hazard rate function. Here a general hazard rate function h(t)=a+bt c-1 , where c, a, b are constants greater than zero, is considered. The parameter c is assumed to be known. The Bayes estimators of (a,b) based on the data of type II/item-censored testing without replacement are obtained. A large simulation study using Monte Carlo Method is done to compare the performance of Bayes with regression estimators of (a,b). The criterion for comparison is made based on the Bayes risk associated with the respective estimator. Also, the influence of the number of failed items on the accuracy of the estimators (Bayes and regression) is investigated. Estimations for the parameters (a,b) of the linearly increasing hazard rate model h(t)=a+bt, where a, b are greater than zero, can be obtained as the special case, letting c=2

  6. Comparison of prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection by sampling slaughtered cattle with macroscopic lesions vs. systematic sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elze, J; Liebler-Tenorio, E; Ziller, M; Köhler, H

    2013-07-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the most reliable approach for prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in clinically healthy slaughtered cattle. Sampling of macroscopically suspect tissue was compared to systematic sampling. Specimens of ileum, jejunum, mesenteric and caecal lymph nodes were examined for MAP infection using bacterial microscopy, culture, histopathology and immunohistochemistry. MAP was found most frequently in caecal lymph nodes, but sampling more tissues optimized the detection rate. Examination by culture was most efficient while combination with histopathology increased the detection rate slightly. MAP was detected in 49/50 animals with macroscopic lesions representing 1.35% of the slaughtered cattle examined. Of 150 systematically sampled macroscopically non-suspect cows, 28.7% were infected with MAP. This indicates that the majority of MAP-positive cattle are slaughtered without evidence of macroscopic lesions and before clinical signs occur. For reliable prevalence estimation of MAP infection in slaughtered cattle, systematic random sampling is essential.

  7. Estimating disease prevalence from two-phase surveys with non-response at the second phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

    2010-01-01

    SUMMARY In this paper we compare several methods for estimating population disease prevalence from data collected by two-phase sampling when there is non-response at the second phase. The traditional weighting type estimator requires the missing completely at random assumption and may yield biased estimates if the assumption does not hold. We review two approaches and propose one new approach to adjust for non-response assuming that the non-response depends on a set of covariates collected at the first phase: an adjusted weighting type estimator using estimated response probability from a response model; a modelling type estimator using predicted disease probability from a disease model; and a regression type estimator combining the adjusted weighting type estimator and the modelling type estimator. These estimators are illustrated using data from an Alzheimer’s disease study in two populations. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performances of the proposed estimators under various situations. PMID:10931514

  8. Lidar method to estimate emission rates from extended sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currently, point measurements, often combined with models, are the primary means by which atmospheric emission rates are estimated from extended sources. However, these methods often fall short in their spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy. In recent years, lidar has emerged as a suitable to...

  9. Estimates of outcrossing rates in Moringa oleifera using Amplified ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mating system in plant populations is influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Proper estimates of the outcrosing rates are often required for planning breeding programmes, conservation and management of tropical trees. However, although Moringa oleifera is adapted to a mixed mating system, the proportion ...

  10. Cross sectional efficient estimation of stochastic volatility short rate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danilov, Dmitri; Mandal, Pranab K.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation of term structure of interest rates. Filtering theory approach is very natural here with the underlying setup being non-linear and non-Gaussian. Earlier works make use of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). However, as indicated by de Jong (2000), the EKF in this

  11. Cross sectional efficient estimation of stochastic volatility short rate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danilov, Dmitri; Mandal, Pranab K.

    2002-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation of term structure of interest rates. Filtering theory approach is very natural here with the underlying setup being non-linear and non-Gaussian. Earlier works make use of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). However, the EKF in this situation leads to inconsistent

  12. Estimating Ads’ Click through Rate with Recurrent Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Qiao-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of the Internet, online advertising spreads across every corner of the world, the ads' click through rate (CTR estimation is an important method to improve the online advertising revenue. Compared with the linear model, the nonlinear models can study much more complex relationships between a large number of nonlinear characteristics, so as to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the ads’ CTR. The recurrent neural network (RNN based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM is an improved model of the feedback neural network with ring structure. The model overcomes the problem of the gradient of the general RNN. Experiments show that the RNN based on LSTM exceeds the linear models, and it can effectively improve the estimation effect of the ads’ click through rate.

  13. Estimated erosion rate at the SRP burial ground

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horton, J.H.; Wilhite, E.L.

    1978-04-01

    The rate of soil erosion at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) burial ground can be calculated by means of the universal soil loss equation. Erosion rates estimated by the equation are more suitable for long-term prediction than those which could be measured with a reasonable effort in field studies. The predicted erosion rate at the SRP burial ground ranges from 0.0007 cm/year under stable forest cover to 0.38 cm/year if farmed with cultivated crops. These values correspond to 170,000 and 320 years, respectively, to expose waste buried 4 ft deep

  14. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  15. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  16. A Pulse Rate Estimation Algorithm Using PPG and Smartphone Camera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Sarah Ali; Zhang, Yuan; Feng, Zhiquan; Kos, Anton

    2016-05-01

    The ubiquitous use and advancement in built-in smartphone sensors and the development in big data processing have been beneficial in several fields including healthcare. Among the basic vitals monitoring, pulse rate monitoring is the most important healthcare necessity. A multimedia video stream data acquired by built-in smartphone camera can be used to estimate it. In this paper, an algorithm that uses only smartphone camera as a sensor to estimate pulse rate using PhotoPlethysmograph (PPG) signals is proposed. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm are compared with the actual pulse rate and the maximum error found is 3 beats per minute. The standard deviation in percentage error and percentage accuracy is found to be 0.68 % whereas the average percentage error and percentage accuracy is found to be 1.98 % and 98.02 % respectively.

  17. A Fast Soft Bit Error Rate Estimation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ait-Idir Tarik

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We have suggested in a previous publication a method to estimate the Bit Error Rate (BER of a digital communications system instead of using the famous Monte Carlo (MC simulation. This method was based on the estimation of the probability density function (pdf of soft observed samples. The kernel method was used for the pdf estimation. In this paper, we suggest to use a Gaussian Mixture (GM model. The Expectation Maximisation algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of this mixture. The optimal number of Gaussians is computed by using Mutual Information Theory. The analytical expression of the BER is therefore simply given by using the different estimated parameters of the Gaussian Mixture. Simulation results are presented to compare the three mentioned methods: Monte Carlo, Kernel and Gaussian Mixture. We analyze the performance of the proposed BER estimator in the framework of a multiuser code division multiple access system and show that attractive performance is achieved compared with conventional MC or Kernel aided techniques. The results show that the GM method can drastically reduce the needed number of samples to estimate the BER in order to reduce the required simulation run-time, even at very low BER.

  18. The SOGS-RA vs. the MAGS-7: prevalence estimates and classification congruence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhinrichsen-Rohling, Jennifer; Rohling, Martin L; Rohde, Paul; Seeley, John R

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the prevalence rate estimates and congruence in classification status derived from two popular measures of adolescent gambling (SOGS-RA and MAGS-7). Adolescents from three states (Alabama, Mississippi, and Oregon) completed an anonymous questionnaire ( n =1846 high school students total). Results indicate that the prevalence of probable adolescent pathological gambling varied both as a function of instrument and cut-off point utilized for classification (range 1.7%-8.2%). Classification groups (non-problem, at-risk, and problem gamblers) generated by both instruments were found to be associated with reports of gambling frequency, amount of money lost in one gambling occasion, and parental gambling problems. However, concern was raised because the MAGS-7 and the SOGS-RA had little congruence in their three-group classification decisions for specific individuals (e.g., only 20.5% agreement for problem gamblers). To improve clinical utility, an empirical case was made for using the SOGS-RA to generate a fourth group of adolescent gamblers, which we labeled "probable pathological gamblers" (SOGS-RA > or = 6). This group was differentiated from the remaining gambling groups on all the validity indices. The implications and limitations of these findings, as well as future directions, are discussed.

  19. Estimation of the rate of volcanism on Venus from reaction rate measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fegley, Bruce, Jr.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    1989-01-01

    Laboratory rate data for the reaction between SO2 and calcite to form anhydrite are presented. If this reaction rate represents the SO2 reaction rate on Venus, then all SO2 in the Venusian atmosphere will disappear in 1.9 Myr unless volcanism replenishes the lost SO2. The required volcanism rate, which depends on the sulfur content of the erupted material, is in the range 0.4-11 cu km of magma erupted per year. The Venus surface composition at the Venera 13, 14, and Vega 2 landing sites implies a volcanism rate of about 1 cu km/yr. This geochemically estimated rate can be used to determine if either (or neither) of two discordant geophysically estimated rates is correct. It also suggests that Venus may be less volcanically active than the earth.

  20. Estimating contaminant discharge rates from stabilized uranium tailings embankments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, M.F.

    1986-01-01

    Estimates of contaminant discharge rates from stabilized uranium tailings embankments are essential in evaluating long-term impacts of tailings disposal on groundwater resources. Contaminant discharge rates are a function of water flux through tailings covers, the mass and distribution of tailings, and the concentrations of contaminants in percolating pore fluids. Simple calculations, laboratory and field testing, and analytical and numerical modeling may be used to estimate water flux through variably-saturated tailings under steady-state conditions, which develop after consolidation and dewatering have essentially ceased. Contaminant concentrations in water discharging from the tailings depend on tailings composition, leachability and solubility of contaminants, geochemical conditions within the embankment, tailings-water interactions, and flux of water through the embankment. These concentrations may be estimated based on maximum reported concentrations, pore water concentrations, extrapolations of column leaching data, or geochemical equilibria and reaction pathway modeling. Attempts to estimate contaminant discharge rates should begin with simple, conservative calculations and progress to more-complicated approaches, as necessary

  1. The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

  2. Estimating Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease for Small Areas Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Congdon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand. Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are important for assessing health need. An instance is provided by England where deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease are available for small areas known as wards, but prevalence is only available for relatively large health authority areas. To estimate CHD prevalence at small area level in such a situation, a shared random effect method is proposed that pools information regarding spatial morbidity contrasts over different indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, prevalence. The shared random effect approach also incorporates differences between small areas in known risk factors (e.g., income, ethnic structure. A Poisson-multinomial equivalence may be used to ensure small area prevalence estimates sum to the known higher area total. An illustration is provided by data for London using hospital admissions and CHD deaths at ward level, together with CHD prevalence totals for considerably larger local health authority areas. The shared random effect involved a spatially correlated common factor, that accounts for clustering in latent risk factors, and also provides a summary measure of small area CHD morbidity.

  3. Rating curve estimation of nutrient loads in Iowa rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenback, G.A.; Crumpton, W.G.; Schilling, K.E.; Helmers, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimation of nutrient loads in rivers and streams is critical for many applications including determination of sources of nutrient loads in watersheds, evaluating long-term trends in loads, and estimating loading to downstream waterbodies. Since in many cases nutrient concentrations are measured on a weekly or monthly frequency, there is a need to estimate concentration and loads during periods when no data is available. The objectives of this study were to: (i) document the performance of a multiple regression model to predict loads of nitrate and total phosphorus (TP) in Iowa rivers and streams; (ii) determine whether there is any systematic bias in the load prediction estimates for nitrate and TP; and (iii) evaluate streamflow and concentration factors that could affect the load prediction efficiency. A commonly cited rating curve regression is utilized to estimate riverine nitrate and TP loads for rivers in Iowa with watershed areas ranging from 17.4 to over 34,600km2. Forty-nine nitrate and 44 TP datasets each comprising 5-22years of approximately weekly to monthly concentrations were examined. Three nitrate data sets had sample collection frequencies averaging about three samples per week. The accuracy and precision of annual and long term riverine load prediction was assessed by direct comparison of rating curve load predictions with observed daily loads. Significant positive bias of annual and long term nitrate loads was detected. Long term rating curve nitrate load predictions exceeded observed loads by 25% or more at 33% of the 49 measurement sites. No bias was found for TP load prediction although 15% of the 44 cases either underestimated or overestimate observed long-term loads by more than 25%. The rating curve was found to poorly characterize nitrate and phosphorus variation in some rivers. ?? 2010 .

  4. Estimation of Stormwater Interception Rate for various LID Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.; Lee, O.; Choi, J.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, the stormwater interception rate is proposed to apply in the design of LID facilities. For this purpose, EPA-SWMM is built with some areas of Noksan National Industrial Complex where long-term observed stormwater data were monitored and stormwater interception rates for various design capacities of various LID facilities are estimated. While the sensitivity of stormwater interception rate according to design specifications of bio-retention and infiltration trench facilities is not large, the sensitivity of stormwater interception rate according to local rainfall characteristics is relatively big. As a result of comparing the present rainfall interception rate estimation method which is officially operated in Korea with the one proposed in this study, it will be presented that the present method is highly likely to overestimate the performance of the bio-retention and infiltration trench facilities. Finally, a new stormwater interception rate formulas for the bio-retention and infiltration trench LID facilities will be proposed. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (2016000200002) from Public Welfare Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Environment of Korean government.

  5. Application of a conversion factor to estimate the adenoma detection rate from the polyp detection rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Francis, Dawn L

    2011-03-01

    The adenoma detection rate (ADR) is a quality benchmark for colonoscopy. Many practices find it difficult to determine the ADR because it requires a combination of endoscopic and histologic findings. It may be possible to apply a conversion factor to estimate the ADR from the polyp detection rate (PDR).

  6. Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young-Xu, Yinong; Chan, K Arnold

    2008-08-19

    The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

  7. Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan K Arnold

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. Methods We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. Results In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. Conclusion The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

  8. Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identifications in forensic science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, John; Vorburger, Theodore V.; Chu, Wei; Yen, James; Soons, Johannes A.; Ott, Daniel B.; Zhang, Nien Fan

    2018-01-01

    Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identification is a fundamental challenge in forensic science. This paper describes the recently developed congruent matching cells (CMC) method for image comparisons, its application to firearm evidence identification, and its usage and initial tests for error rate estimation. The CMC method divides compared topography images into correlation cells. Four identification parameters are defined for quantifying both the topography similarity of the correlated cell pairs and the pattern congruency of the registered cell locations. A declared match requires a significant number of CMCs, i.e., cell pairs that meet all similarity and congruency requirements. Initial testing on breech face impressions of a set of 40 cartridge cases fired with consecutively manufactured pistol slides showed wide separation between the distributions of CMC numbers observed for known matching and known non-matching image pairs. Another test on 95 cartridge cases from a different set of slides manufactured by the same process also yielded widely separated distributions. The test results were used to develop two statistical models for the probability mass function of CMC correlation scores. The models were applied to develop a framework for estimating cumulative false positive and false negative error rates and individual error rates of declared matches and non-matches for this population of breech face impressions. The prospect for applying the models to large populations and realistic case work is also discussed. The CMC method can provide a statistical foundation for estimating error rates in firearm evidence identifications, thus emulating methods used for forensic identification of DNA evidence. PMID:29331680

  9. Drug use and AIDS: estimating injection prevalence in a rural state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leukefeld, Carl G; Logan, T K; Farabee, David; Clayton, Richard

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents approaches used in one rural U.S. state to describe the level of injecting drug use and to estimate the number of injectors not receiving drug-user treatment. The focus is on two broad areas of estimation that were used to present the prevalence of injecting drug use in Kentucky. The first estimation approach uses available data from secondary data sources. The second approach involves three small community studies.

  10. Estimating the prevalence of illicit opioid use in New York City using multiple data sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McNeely Jennifer

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite concerns about its health and social consequences, little is known about the prevalence of illicit opioid use in New York City. Individuals who misuse heroin and prescription opioids are known to bear a disproportionate burden of morbidity and mortality. Service providers and public health authorities are challenged to provide appropriate interventions in the absence of basic knowledge about the size and characteristics of this population. While illicit drug users are underrepresented in population-based surveys, they may be identified in multiple administrative data sources. Methods We analyzed large datasets tracking hospital inpatient and emergency room admissions as well as drug treatment and detoxification services utilization. These were applied in combination with findings from a large general population survey and administrative records tracking prescriptions, drug overdose deaths, and correctional health services, to estimate the prevalence of heroin and non-medical prescription opioid use among New York City residents in 2006. These data were further applied to a descriptive analysis of opioid users entering drug treatment and hospital-based medical care. Results These data sources identified 126,681 cases of opioid use among New York City residents in 2006. After applying adjustment scenarios to account for potential overlap between data sources, we estimated over 92,000 individual opioid users. By contrast, just 21,600 opioid users initiated drug treatment in 2006. Opioid users represented 4 % of all individuals hospitalized, and over 44,000 hospitalizations during the calendar year. Conclusions Our findings suggest that innovative approaches are needed to provide adequate services to this sizeable population of opioid users. Given the observed high rates of hospital services utilization, greater integration of drug services into medical settings could be one component of an effective approach to

  11. Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharine J Looker

    Full Text Available Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1 commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated.We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital.We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440-3878 million aged 0-49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%, with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67-212 million people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific.The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection.

  12. The impact of fecal sample processing on prevalence estimates for antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omulo, Sylvia; Lofgren, Eric T; Mugoh, Maina; Alando, Moshe; Obiya, Joshua; Kipyegon, Korir; Kikwai, Gilbert; Gumbi, Wilson; Kariuki, Samuel; Call, Douglas R

    2017-05-01

    Investigators often rely on studies of Escherichia coli to characterize the burden of antibiotic resistance in a clinical or community setting. To determine if prevalence estimates for antibiotic resistance are sensitive to sample handling and interpretive criteria, we collected presumptive E. coli isolates (24 or 95 per stool sample) from a community in an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Isolates were tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics using agar breakpoint assays and results were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We observed a 0.1). Prevalence estimates did not differ for five distinct E. coli colony morphologies on MacConkey agar plates (P>0.2). Successive re-plating of samples for up to five consecutive days had little to no impact on prevalence estimates. Finally, culturing E. coli under different conditions (with 5% CO 2 or micro-aerobic) did not affect estimates of prevalence. For the conditions tested in these experiments, minor modifications in sample processing protocols are unlikely to bias estimates of the prevalence of antibiotic-resistance for fecal E. coli. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

    2018-02-15

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

  14. GARDEC, Estimation of dose-rates reduction by garden decontamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Togawa, Orihiko

    2006-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: GARDEC estimates the reduction of dose rates by garden decontamination. It provides the effect of different decontamination Methods, the depth of soil to be considered, dose-rate before and after decontamination and the reduction factor. 2 - Methods: This code takes into account three Methods of decontamination : (i)digging a garden in a special way, (ii) a removal of the upper layer of soil, and (iii) covering with a shielding layer of soil. The dose-rate conversion factor is defined as the external dose-rate, in the air, at a given height above the ground from a unit concentration of a specific radionuclide in each soil layer

  15. Bayesian Estimation of Fish Disease Prevalence from Pooled Samples Incorporating Sensitivity and Specificity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Christopher J.; Moffitt, Christine M.

    2003-03-01

    An important emerging issue in fisheries biology is the health of free-ranging populations of fish, particularly with respect to the prevalence of certain pathogens. For many years, pathologists focused on captive populations and interest was in the presence or absence of certain pathogens, so it was economically attractive to test pooled samples of fish. Recently, investigators have begun to study individual fish prevalence from pooled samples. Estimation of disease prevalence from pooled samples is straightforward when assay sensitivity and specificity are perfect, but this assumption is unrealistic. Here we illustrate the use of a Bayesian approach for estimating disease prevalence from pooled samples when sensitivity and specificity are not perfect. We also focus on diagnostic plots to monitor the convergence of the Gibbs-sampling-based Bayesian analysis. The methods are illustrated with a sample data set.

  16. A nonparametric mixture model for cure rate estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Y; Dear, K B

    2000-03-01

    Nonparametric methods have attracted less attention than their parametric counterparts for cure rate analysis. In this paper, we study a general nonparametric mixture model. The proportional hazards assumption is employed in modeling the effect of covariates on the failure time of patients who are not cured. The EM algorithm, the marginal likelihood approach, and multiple imputations are employed to estimate parameters of interest in the model. This model extends models and improves estimation methods proposed by other researchers. It also extends Cox's proportional hazards regression model by allowing a proportion of event-free patients and investigating covariate effects on that proportion. The model and its estimation method are investigated by simulations. An application to breast cancer data, including comparisons with previous analyses using a parametric model and an existing nonparametric model by other researchers, confirms the conclusions from the parametric model but not those from the existing nonparametric model.

  17. Automatic estimation of pressure-dependent rate coefficients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Joshua W; Goldsmith, C Franklin; Green, William H

    2012-01-21

    A general framework is presented for accurately and efficiently estimating the phenomenological pressure-dependent rate coefficients for reaction networks of arbitrary size and complexity using only high-pressure-limit information. Two aspects of this framework are discussed in detail. First, two methods of estimating the density of states of the species in the network are presented, including a new method based on characteristic functional group frequencies. Second, three methods of simplifying the full master equation model of the network to a single set of phenomenological rates are discussed, including a new method based on the reservoir state and pseudo-steady state approximations. Both sets of methods are evaluated in the context of the chemically-activated reaction of acetyl with oxygen. All three simplifications of the master equation are usually accurate, but each fails in certain situations, which are discussed. The new methods usually provide good accuracy at a computational cost appropriate for automated reaction mechanism generation.

  18. Fast Rate Estimation for RDO Mode Decision in HEVC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxim P. Sharabayko

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The latter-day H.265/HEVC video compression standard is able to provide two-times higher compression efficiency compared to the current industrial standard, H.264/AVC. However, coding complexity also increased. The main bottleneck of the compression process is the rate-distortion optimization (RDO stage, as it involves numerous sequential syntax-based binary arithmetic coding (SBAC loops. In this paper, we present an entropy-based RDO estimation technique for H.265/HEVC compression, instead of the common approach based on the SBAC. Our RDO implementation reduces RDO complexity, providing an average bit rate overhead of 1.54%. At the same time, elimination of the SBAC from the RDO estimation reduces block interdependencies, thus providing an opportunity for the development of the compression system with parallel processing of multiple blocks of a video frame.

  19. Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro [Faculty of Studies on Contemporary Society, Aichi Shukutoku Univ., Nagakute, Aichi (Japan)

    2000-03-01

    The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10{sup 16} per liter, or 2x10{sup 18} per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

  20. Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro

    2000-01-01

    The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10 16 per liter, or 2x10 18 per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

  1. Counting and confusion: Bayesian rate estimation with multiple populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farr, Will M.; Gair, Jonathan R.; Mandel, Ilya; Cutler, Curt

    2015-01-01

    We show how to obtain a Bayesian estimate of the rates or numbers of signal and background events from a set of events when the shapes of the signal and background distributions are known, can be estimated, or approximated; our method works well even if the foreground and background event distributions overlap significantly and the nature of any individual event cannot be determined with any certainty. We give examples of determining the rates of gravitational-wave events in the presence of background triggers from a template bank when noise parameters are known and/or can be fit from the trigger data. We also give an example of determining globular-cluster shape, location, and density from an observation of a stellar field that contains a nonuniform background density of stars superimposed on the cluster stars.

  2. Precise estimates of mutation rate and spectrum in yeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yuan O.; Siegal, Mark L.; Hall, David W.; Petrov, Dmitri A.

    2014-01-01

    Mutation is the ultimate source of genetic variation. The most direct and unbiased method of studying spontaneous mutations is via mutation accumulation (MA) lines. Until recently, MA experiments were limited by the cost of sequencing and thus provided us with small numbers of mutational events and therefore imprecise estimates of rates and patterns of mutation. We used whole-genome sequencing to identify nearly 1,000 spontaneous mutation events accumulated over ∼311,000 generations in 145 diploid MA lines of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. MA experiments are usually assumed to have negligible levels of selection, but even mild selection will remove strongly deleterious events. We take advantage of such patterns of selection and show that mutation classes such as indels and aneuploidies (especially monosomies) are proportionately much more likely to contribute mutations of large effect. We also provide conservative estimates of indel, aneuploidy, environment-dependent dominant lethal, and recessive lethal mutation rates. To our knowledge, for the first time in yeast MA data, we identified a sufficiently large number of single-nucleotide mutations to measure context-dependent mutation rates and were able to (i) confirm strong AT bias of mutation in yeast driven by high rate of mutations from C/G to T/A and (ii) detect a higher rate of mutation at C/G nucleotides in two specific contexts consistent with cytosine methylation in S. cerevisiae. PMID:24847077

  3. Robust efficient estimation of heart rate pulse from video

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shuchang; Sun, Lingyun; Rohde, Gustavo Kunde

    2014-01-01

    We describe a simple but robust algorithm for estimating the heart rate pulse from video sequences containing human skin in real time. Based on a model of light interaction with human skin, we define the change of blood concentration due to arterial pulsation as a pixel quotient in log space, and successfully use the derived signal for computing the pulse heart rate. Various experiments with different cameras, different illumination condition, and different skin locations were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed algorithm. Examples computed with normal illumination show the algorithm is comparable with pulse oximeter devices both in accuracy and sensitivity. PMID:24761294

  4. Estimating Effective Subsidy Rates of Student Aid Programs

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey H. CHEN

    2008-01-01

    Every year millions of high school students and their parents in the US are asked to fill out complicated financial aid application forms. However, few studies have estimated the responsiveness of government financial aid schemes to changes in financial needs of the students. This paper identifies the effective subsidy rate (ESR) of student aid, as defined by the coefficient of financial needs in the regression of financial aid. The ESR measures the proportion of subsidy of student aid under ...

  5. Cluster-collision frequency. II. Estimation of the collision rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amadon, A.S.; Marlow, W.H.

    1991-01-01

    Gas-phase cluster-collision rates, including effects of cluster morphology and long-range intermolecular forces, are calculated. Identical pairs of icosahedral or dodecahedral carbon tetrachloride clusters of 13, 33, and 55 molecules in two different relative orientations were discussed in the preceding paper [Phys. Rev. A 43, 5483 (1991)]: long-range interaction energies were derived based upon (i) exact calculations of the iterated, or many-body, induced-dipole interaction energies for the clusters in two fixed relative orientations; and (ii) bulk, or continuum descriptions (Lifshitz--van der Waals theory), of spheres of corresponding masses and diameters. In this paper, collision rates are calculated according to an exact description of the rates for small spheres interacting via realistic potentials. Utilizing the interaction energies of the preceding paper, several estimates of the collision rates are given by treating the discrete clusters in fixed relative orientations, by computing rotationally averaged potentials for the discrete clusters, and by approximating the clusters as continuum spheres. For the discrete, highly symmetric clusters treated here, the rates using the rotationally averaged potentials closely approximate the fixed-orientation rates and the values of the intercluster potentials for cluster surface separations under 2 A have negligible effect on the overall collision rates. While the 13-molecule cluster-collision rate differs by 50% from the rate calculated as if the cluster were bulk matter, the two larger cluster-collision rates differ by less than 15% from the macroscopic rates, thereby indicating the transition of microscopic to macroscopic behavior

  6. The impact of height during childhood on the national prevalence rates of overweight

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dommelen, Paula; De Kroon, Marlou L A; Cameron, Noël; Schon̈beck, Yvonne; Van Buuren, Stef

    2014-01-01

    Background: It is known that height and body mass index (BMI) are correlated in childhood. However, its impact on the (trend of) national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity has never been investigated. The aim of our study is to investigate the relation between height and national prevalence

  7. The impact of height during childhood on the national prevalence rates of overweight

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dommelen, P. van; Kroon, M.L.A. de; Cameron, N.; Schonbeck, Y.; Buuren, S. van

    2014-01-01

    Background It is known that height and body mass index (BMI) are correlated in childhood. However, its impact on the (trend of) national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity has never been investigated. The aim of our study is to investigate the relation between height and national prevalence

  8. Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for 2000 and projections for 2030

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wild, Sarah; Roglic, Gojka; Green, Anders

    2004-01-01

    . The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people 65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS — These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence......OBJECTIVE — The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS — Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World...... of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence....

  9. Simple method for the estimation of glomerular filtration rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groth, T [Group for Biomedical Informatics, Uppsala Univ. Data Center, Uppsala (Sweden); Tengstroem, B [District General Hospital, Skoevde (Sweden)

    1977-02-01

    A simple method is presented for indirect estimation of the glomerular filtration rate from two venous blood samples, drawn after a single injection of a small dose of (/sup 125/I)sodium iothalamate (10 ..mu..Ci). The method does not require exact dosage, as the first sample, taken after a few minutes (t=5 min) after injection, is used to normilize the value of the second sample, which should be taken in between 2 to 4 h after injection. The glomerular filtration rate, as measured by standard insulin clearance, may then be predicted from the logarithm of the normalized value and linear regression formulas with a standard error of estimate of the order of 1 to 2 ml/min/1.73 m/sup 2/. The slope-intercept method for direct estimation of glomerular filtration rate is also evaluated and found to significantly underestimate standard insulin clearance. The normalized 'single-point' method is concluded to be superior to the slope-intercept method and more sophisticated methods using curve fitting technique, with regard to predictive force and clinical applicability.

  10. Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchêne, D A; Hua, X; Bromham, L

    2017-10-01

    Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric-based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  11. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER measurements. An algorithm for probabilistically estimating AER was developed based on the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Infiltration model utilizing housing characteristics and meteorological data with adjustment for window opening behavior. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured AERs in four US cities (Los Angeles, CA; Detroit, MI; Elizabeth, NJ; and Houston, TX) inputting study-specific data. The impact on the modeled AER of using publically available housing data representative of the region for each city was also assessed. Finally, modeled AER based on region-specific inputs was compared with those estimated using literature-based distributions. While modeled AERs were similar in magnitude to the measured AER they were consistently lower for all cities except Houston. AERs estimated using region-specific inputs were lower than those using study-specific inputs due to differences in window opening probabilities. The algorithm produced more spatially and temporally variable AERs compared with literature-based distributions reflecting within- and between-city differences, helping reduce error in estimates of air pollutant exposure. Published in the Journal of

  12. Hepatitis C prevalence in Denmark -an estimate based on multiple national registers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Peer Brehm; Hay, Gordon; Jepsen, Peter

    2012-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: A national survey for chronic hepatitis C has not been performed in Denmark and the prevalence is unknown. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C from public registers and the proportion of these patients who received specialized healthcare. METHODS...... by capture-recapture analysis. The population with undiagnosed hepatitis C was derived from the national register of drug users by comparing diagnosed and tested persons. RESULTS: A total of 6,935 patients diagnosed with chronic hepatitis C were identified in the four registers and the estimated population.......37-0.42) of the population over 15 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in Denmark was 0.38%. Less than half of the patients with chronic hepatitis C in Denmark have been identified and among these patients, one in three has attended specialised care....

  13. Can administrative health utilisation data provide an accurate diabetes prevalence estimate for a geographical region?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Wing Cheuk; Papaconstantinou, Dean; Lee, Mildred; Telfer, Kendra; Jo, Emmanuel; Drury, Paul L; Tobias, Martin

    2018-05-01

    To validate the New Zealand Ministry of Health (MoH) Virtual Diabetes Register (VDR) using longitudinal laboratory results and to develop an improved algorithm for estimating diabetes prevalence at a population level. The assigned diabetes status of individuals based on the 2014 version of the MoH VDR is compared to the diabetes status based on the laboratory results stored in the Auckland regional laboratory result repository (TestSafe) using the New Zealand diabetes diagnostic criteria. The existing VDR algorithm is refined by reviewing the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the each of the VDR algorithm rules individually and as a combination. The diabetes prevalence estimate based on the original 2014 MoH VDR was 17% higher (n = 108,505) than the corresponding TestSafe prevalence estimate (n = 92,707). Compared to the diabetes prevalence based on TestSafe, the original VDR has a sensitivity of 89%, specificity of 96%, positive predictive value of 76% and negative predictive value of 98%. The modified VDR algorithm has improved the positive predictive value by 6.1% and the specificity by 1.4% with modest reductions in sensitivity of 2.2% and negative predictive value of 0.3%. At an aggregated level the overall diabetes prevalence estimated by the modified VDR is 5.7% higher than the corresponding estimate based on TestSafe. The Ministry of Health Virtual Diabetes Register algorithm has been refined to provide a more accurate diabetes prevalence estimate at a population level. The comparison highlights the potential value of a national population long term condition register constructed from both laboratory results and administrative data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Estimating marginal CO2 emissions rates for national electricity systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawkes, A.D.

    2010-01-01

    The carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reduction afforded by a demand-side intervention in the electricity system is typically assessed by means of an assumed grid emissions rate, which measures the CO 2 intensity of electricity not used as a result of the intervention. This emissions rate is called the 'marginal emissions factor' (MEF). Accurate estimation of MEFs is crucial for performance assessment because their application leads to decisions regarding the relative merits of CO 2 reduction strategies. This article contributes to formulating the principles by which MEFs are estimated, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses in existing approaches, and presenting an alternative based on the observed behaviour of power stations. The case of Great Britain is considered, demonstrating an MEF of 0.69 kgCO 2 /kW h for 2002-2009, with error bars at +/-10%. This value could reduce to 0.6 kgCO 2 /kW h over the next decade under planned changes to the underlying generation mix, and could further reduce to approximately 0.51 kgCO 2 /kW h before 2025 if all power stations commissioned pre-1970 are replaced by their modern counterparts. Given that these rates are higher than commonly applied system-average or assumed 'long term marginal' emissions rates, it is concluded that maintenance of an improved understanding of MEFs is valuable to better inform policy decisions.

  15. Can we estimate bacterial growth rates from ribosomal RNA content?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kemp, P.F.

    1995-12-31

    Several studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the quantity of RNA in bacterial cells and their growth rate under laboratory conditions. It may be possible to use this relationship to provide information on the activity of natural bacterial communities, and in particular on growth rate. However, if this approach is to provide reliably interpretable information, the relationship between RNA content and growth rate must be well-understood. In particular, a requisite of such applications is that the relationship must be universal among bacteria, or alternately that the relationship can be determined and measured for specific bacterial taxa. The RNA-growth rate relationship has not been used to evaluate bacterial growth in field studies, although RNA content has been measured in single cells and in bulk extracts of field samples taken from coastal environments. These measurements have been treated as probable indicators of bacterial activity, but have not yet been interpreted as estimators of growth rate. The primary obstacle to such interpretations is a lack of information on biological and environmental factors that affect the RNA-growth rate relationship. In this paper, the available data on the RNA-growth rate relationship in bacteria will be reviewed, including hypotheses regarding the regulation of RNA synthesis and degradation as a function of growth rate and environmental factors; i.e. the basic mechanisms for maintaining RNA content in proportion to growth rate. An assessment of the published laboratory and field data, the current status of this research area, and some of the remaining questions will be presented.

  16. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

  17. Association between Search Behaviors and Disease Prevalence Rates at 18 U.S. Children's Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Dennis; Wolbrink, Traci; Logvinenko, Tanya; Harper, Marvin; Burns, Jeffrey

    2017-10-01

    Background Usage of online resources by clinicians in training and practice can provide insight into knowledge gaps and inform development of decision support tools. Although online information seeking is often driven by encountered patient problems, the relationship between disease prevalence and search rate has not been previously characterized. Objective This article aimed to (1) identify topics frequently searched by pediatric clinicians using UpToDate (http://www.uptodate.com) and (2) explore the association between disease prevalence rate and search rate using data from the Pediatric Health Information System. Methods We identified the most common search queries and resources most frequently accessed on UpToDate for a cohort of 18 children's hospitals during calendar year 2012. We selected 64 of the most frequently searched diseases and matched ICD-9 data from the PHIS database during the same time period. Using linear regression, we explored the relationship between clinician query rate and disease prevalence rate. Results The hospital cohort submitted 1,228,138 search queries across 592,454 sessions. The majority of search sessions focused on a single search topic. We identified no consistent overall association between disease prevalence and search rates. Diseases where search rate was substantially higher than prevalence rate were often infectious or immune/rheumatologic conditions, involved potentially complex diagnosis or management, and carried risk of significant morbidity or mortality. None of the examined diseases showed a decrease in search rate associated with increased disease prevalence rates. Conclusion This is one of the first medical learning needs assessments to use large-scale, multisite data to identify topics of interest to pediatric clinicians, and to examine the relationship between disease prevalence and search rate for a set of pediatric diseases. Overall, disease search rate did not appear to be associated with hospital

  18. Reconciling disparate prevalence rates of PTSD in large samples of US male Vietnam veterans and their controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gottesman Irving I

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Two large independent studies funded by the US government have assessed the impact of the Vietnam War on the prevalence of PTSD in US veterans. The National Vietnam Veterans Readjustment Study (NVVRS estimated the current PTSD prevalence to be 15.2% while the Vietnam Experience Study (VES estimated the prevalence to be 2.2%. We compared alternative criteria for estimating the prevalence of PTSD using the NVVRS and VES public use data sets collected more than 10 years after the United States withdrew troops from Vietnam. Methods We applied uniform diagnostic procedures to the male veterans from the NVVRS and VES to estimate PTSD prevalences based on varying criteria including one-month and lifetime prevalence estimates, combat and non-combat prevalence estimates, and prevalence estimates using both single and multiple indicator models. Results Using a narrow and specific set of criteria, we derived current prevalence estimates for combat-related PTSD of 2.5% and 2.9% for the VES and the NVVRS, respectively. Using a more broad and sensitive set of criteria, we derived current prevalence estimates for combat-related PTSD of 12.2% and 15.8% for the VES and NVVRS, respectively. Conclusion When comparable methods were applied to available data we reconciled disparate results and estimated similar current prevalences for both narrow and broad definitions of combat-related diagnoses of PTSD.

  19. Aniseikonia quantification: error rate of rule of thumb estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubkin, V; Shippman, S; Bennett, G; Meininger, D; Kramer, P; Poppinga, P

    1999-01-01

    To find the error rate in quantifying aniseikonia by using "Rule of Thumb" estimation in comparison with proven space eikonometry. Study 1: 24 adult pseudophakic individuals were measured for anisometropia, and astigmatic interocular difference. Rule of Thumb quantification for prescription was calculated and compared with aniseikonia measurement by the classical Essilor Projection Space Eikonometer. Study 2: parallel analysis was performed on 62 consecutive phakic patients from our strabismus clinic group. Frequency of error: For Group 1 (24 cases): 5 ( or 21 %) were equal (i.e., 1% or less difference); 16 (or 67% ) were greater (more than 1% different); and 3 (13%) were less by Rule of Thumb calculation in comparison to aniseikonia determined on the Essilor eikonometer. For Group 2 (62 cases): 45 (or 73%) were equal (1% or less); 10 (or 16%) were greater; and 7 (or 11%) were lower in the Rule of Thumb calculations in comparison to Essilor eikonometry. Magnitude of error: In Group 1, in 10/24 (29%) aniseikonia by Rule of Thumb estimation was 100% or more greater than by space eikonometry, and in 6 of those ten by 200% or more. In Group 2, in 4/62 (6%) aniseikonia by Rule of Thumb estimation was 200% or more greater than by space eikonometry. The frequency and magnitude of apparent clinical errors of Rule of Thumb estimation is disturbingly large. This problem is greatly magnified by the time and effort and cost of prescribing and executing an aniseikonic correction for a patient. The higher the refractive error, the greater the anisometropia, and the worse the errors in Rule of Thumb estimation of aniseikonia. Accurate eikonometric methods and devices should be employed in all cases where such measurements can be made. Rule of thumb estimations should be limited to cases where such subjective testing and measurement cannot be performed, as in infants after unilateral cataract surgery.

  20. Estimation of evapotranspiration rate in irrigated lands using stable isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umirzakov, Gulomjon; Windhorst, David; Forkutsa, Irina; Brauer, Lutz; Frede, Hans-Georg

    2013-04-01

    Agriculture in the Aral Sea basin is the main consumer of water resources and due to the current agricultural management practices inefficient water usage causes huge losses of freshwater resources. There is huge potential to save water resources in order to reach a more efficient water use in irrigated areas. Therefore, research is required to reveal the mechanisms of hydrological fluxes in irrigated areas. This paper focuses on estimation of evapotranspiration which is one of the crucial components in the water balance of irrigated lands. Our main objective is to estimate the rate of evapotranspiration on irrigated lands and partitioning of evaporation into transpiration using stable isotopes measurements. Experiments has done in 2 different soil types (sandy and sandy loam) irrigated areas in Ferghana Valley (Uzbekistan). Soil samples were collected during the vegetation period. The soil water from these samples was extracted via a cryogenic extraction method and analyzed for the isotopic ratio of the water isotopes (2H and 18O) based on a laser spectroscopy method (DLT 100, Los Gatos USA). Evapotranspiration rates were estimated with Isotope Mass Balance method. The results of evapotranspiration obtained using isotope mass balance method is compared with the results of Catchment Modeling Framework -1D model results which has done in the same area and the same time.

  1. [Estimating glomerular filtration rate in 2012: which adding value for the CKD-EPI equation?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delanaye, Pierre; Mariat, Christophe; Moranne, Olivier; Cavalier, Etienne; Flamant, Martin

    2012-07-01

    Measuring or estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is still considered as the best way to apprehend global renal function. In 2009, the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology (CKD-EPI) equation has been proposed as a better estimator of GFR than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation. This new equation is supposed to underestimate GFR to a lesser degree in higher GFR levels. In this review, we will present and deeply discuss the performances of this equation. Based on articles published between 2009 and 2012, this review will underline advantages, notably the better knowledge of chronic kidney disease prevalence, but also limitations of this new equation, especially in some specific populations. We eventually insist on the fact that all these equations are estimations and nephrologists should remain cautious in their interpretation. Copyright © 2012 Association Société de néphrologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  2. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all......Summary Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage......-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software...

  3. Estimating the Impact of Raising Prices and Eliminating Discounts on Cigarette Smoking Prevalence in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marynak, Kristy L; Xu, Xin; Wang, Xu; Holmes, Carissa Baker; Tynan, Michael A; Pechacek, Terry

    2016-01-01

    The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease.

  4. Effects of systematic sampling on satellite estimates of deforestation rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steininger, M K; Godoy, F; Harper, G

    2009-01-01

    Options for satellite monitoring of deforestation rates over large areas include the use of sampling. Sampling may reduce the cost of monitoring but is also a source of error in estimates of areas and rates. A common sampling approach is systematic sampling, in which sample units of a constant size are distributed in some regular manner, such as a grid. The proposed approach for the 2010 Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a systematic sample of 10 km wide squares at every 1 deg. intersection of latitude and longitude. We assessed the outcome of this and other systematic samples for estimating deforestation at national, sub-national and continental levels. The study is based on digital data on deforestation patterns for the five Amazonian countries outside Brazil plus the Brazilian Amazon. We tested these schemes by varying sample-unit size and frequency. We calculated two estimates of sampling error. First we calculated the standard errors, based on the size, variance and covariance of the samples, and from this calculated the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Second, we calculated the actual errors, based on the difference between the sample-based estimates and the estimates from the full-coverage maps. At the continental level, the 1 deg., 10 km scheme had a CI of 21% and an actual error of 8%. At the national level, this scheme had CIs of 126% for Ecuador and up to 67% for other countries. At this level, increasing sampling density to every 0.25 deg. produced a CI of 32% for Ecuador and CIs of up to 25% for other countries, with only Brazil having a CI of less than 10%. Actual errors were within the limits of the CIs in all but two of the 56 cases. Actual errors were half or less of the CIs in all but eight of these cases. These results indicate that the FRA 2010 should have CIs of smaller than or close to 10% at the continental level. However, systematic sampling at the national level yields large CIs unless the

  5. The Impact of Survey and Response Modes on Current Smoking Prevalence Estimates Using TUS-CPS: 1992-2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Soulakova

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study identified whether survey administration mode (telephone or in-person and respondent type (self or proxy result in discrepant prevalence of current smoking in the adult U.S. population, while controlling for key sociodemographic characteristics and longitudinal changes of smoking prevalence over the 11-year period from 1992-2003. We used a multiple logistic regression analysis with replicate weights to model the current smoking status logit as a function of a number of covariates. The final model included individual- and family-level sociodemographic characteristics, survey attributes, and multiple two-way interactions of survey mode and respondent type with other covariates. The respondent type is a significant predictor of current smoking prevalence and the magnitude of the difference depends on the age, sex, and education of the person whose smoking status is being reported. Furthermore, the survey mode has significant interactions with survey year, sex, and age. We conclude that using an overall unadjusted estimate of the current smoking prevalence may result in underestimating the current smoking rate when conducting proxy or telephone interviews especially for some sub-populations, such as young adults. We propose that estimates could be improved if more detailed information regarding the respondent type and survey administration mode characteristics were considered in addition to commonly used survey year and sociodemographic characteristics. This information is critical given that future surveillance is moving toward more complex designs. Thus, adjustment of estimates should be contemplated when comparing current smoking prevalence results within a given survey series with major changes in methodology over time and between different surveys using various modes and respondent types.

  6. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; hide

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find

  7. Empirical estimation of astrophysical photodisintegration rates of 106Cd

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belyshev, S. S.; Kuznetsov, A. A.; Stopani, K. A.

    2017-09-01

    It has been noted in previous experiments that the ratio between the photoneutron and photoproton disintegration channels of 106Cd might be considerably different from predictions of statistical models. The thresholds of these reactions differ by several MeV and the total astrophysical rate of photodisintegration of 106Cd, which is mostly produced in photonuclear reactions during the p-process nucleosynthesis, might be noticeably different from the calculated value. In this work the bremsstrahlung beam of a 55.6 MeV microtron and the photon activation technique is used to measure yields of photonuclear reaction products on isotopically-enriched cadmium targets. The obtained results are compared with predictions of statistical models. The experimental yields are used to estimate photodisintegration reaction rates on 106Cd, which are then used in nuclear network calculations to examine the effects of uncertainties on the produced abundences of p-nuclei.

  8. Development of dose rate estimation system for FBR maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iizawa, Katsuyuki [Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Inst., Tsuruga Head Office, International Cooperation and Technology Development Center, Tsuruga, Fukui (Japan); Takeuchi, Jun; Yoshikawa, Satoru [Hitachi Engineering Company, Ltd., Hitachi, Ibaraki (Japan); Urushihara, Hiroshi [Ibaraki Hitachi Information Service Co., Ltd., Omika, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2001-09-01

    During maintenance activities on the primary sodium cooling system by an FBR Personnel radiation exposure arises mainly from the presence of radioactive corrosion products (CP). A CP behavior analysis code, PSYCHE, and a radiation shielding calculation code, QAD-CG, have been developed and applied to investigate the possible reduction of radiation exposure of workers. In order to make these evaluation methods more accessible to plant engineers, the user interface of the codes has been improved and an integrated system, including visualization of the calculated gamma-ray radiation dose-rate map, has been developed. The system has been verified by evaluating the distribution of the radiation dose-rate within the Monju primary heat transport system cells from the estimated saturated CP deposition and distribution which would be present following about 20 cycles of full power operation. (author)

  9. Development of dose rate estimation system for FBR maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iizawa, Katsuyuki; Takeuchi, Jun; Yoshikawa, Satoru; Urushihara, Hiroshi

    2001-01-01

    During maintenance activities on the primary sodium cooling system by an FBR Personnel radiation exposure arises mainly from the presence of radioactive corrosion products (CP). A CP behavior analysis code, PSYCHE, and a radiation shielding calculation code, QAD-CG, have been developed and applied to investigate the possible reduction of radiation exposure of workers. In order to make these evaluation methods more accessible to plant engineers, the user interface of the codes has been improved and an integrated system, including visualization of the calculated gamma-ray radiation dose-rate map, has been developed. The system has been verified by evaluating the distribution of the radiation dose-rate within the Monju primary heat transport system cells from the estimated saturated CP deposition and distribution which would be present following about 20 cycles of full power operation. (author)

  10. A quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, A.G.

    1988-01-01

    The use of a quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates is investigated. Gate valves of nuclear plants are considered, and two qualitative covariates are taken into account: plant location and reactor system. Independence between the two covariates and an exponential failure model are assumed. The failure rate of the components of a given system and plant is assumed to be a constant, but it may vary from one system to another and from one plant to another. This leads to the analysis of a contingency table. A particular feature of the model is the different operating time of the components in the various cells which can also be equal to zero. The concept of independence of the covariates is then replaced by that of quasi-independence. The latter definition, however, is used in a broader sense than usual. Suitable statistical tests are discussed and a numerical example illustrates the use of the method. (author)

  11. Estimated prevalence of halitosis: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Manuela F; Leite, Fábio R M; Ferreira, Larissa B; Pola, Natália M; Scannapieco, Frank A; Demarco, Flávio F; Nascimento, Gustavo G

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to conduct a systematic review to determine the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults. Electronic searches were performed using four different databases without restrictions: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and SciELO. Population-based observational studies that provided data about the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults were included. Additionally, meta-analyses, meta-regression, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to synthesize the evidence. A total of 584 articles were initially found and considered for title and abstract evaluation. Thirteen articles met inclusion criteria. The combined prevalence of halitosis was found to be 31.8% (95% CI 24.6-39.0%). Methodological aspects such as the year of publication and the socioeconomic status of the country where the study was conducted seemed to influence the prevalence of halitosis. Our results demonstrated that the estimated prevalence of halitosis was 31.8%, with high heterogeneity between studies. The results suggest a worldwide trend towards a rise in halitosis prevalence. Given the high prevalence of halitosis and its complex etiology, dental professionals should be aware of their roles in halitosis prevention and treatment.

  12. Estimating the Prevalence of Toxic Waste Sites in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, Russell; Caravanos, Jack; Grigsby, Patrick; Rivera, Anthony; Ericson, Bret; Amoyaw-Osei, Yaw; Akuffo, Bennett; Fuller, Richard

    Exposure to heavy metals at contaminated industrial and mining sites, known also as hot spots, is a significant source of toxic exposure and adverse health outcomes in countries around the world. The Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP) developed by Pure Earth, a New York-based nongovernmental organization, is the only systematic effort to catalogue contaminated sites globally. To date, TSIP has identified and catalogued 3282 sites in low- and middle-income countries. The TSIP methodology is not designed to survey all contaminated sites in a country. Rather sites are prioritized based on their perceived impact on human health, and only a limited number of the most highly hazardous sites are surveyed. The total number of contaminated sites globally and the fraction of contaminated sites captured by TSIP is not known. To determine the TSIP site capture rate, the fraction of contaminated sites in a country catalogued by TSIP. Ghana was selected for this analysis because it is a rapidly industrializing lower middle income country with a heterogeneous industrial base, a highly urban population (51%), and good public records systems. To develop an estimate of the fraction of sites in Ghana captured by TSIP, assessors targeted randomly selected geographic quadrats for comprehensive assessment using area and population statistics from the Ghana Statistical Service. Investigators physically walked all accessible streets in each quadrat to visually identify all sites. Visual identification was supplemented by field-based confirmation with portable x-ray fluorescence instruments to test soils for metals. To extrapolate from survey findings to develop a range of estimates for the entire country, the investigators used 2 methodologies: a "bottom-up" approach that first estimated the number of waste sites in each region and then summed these regional subtotals to develop a total national estimate; and a "top-down" method that estimated the total number of sites in Ghana and

  13. Prevalence of family violence in adults and children : Estimates using the capture-recapture method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterlee, A.; Vink, R.M.; Smit, F.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Reliable prevalence estimates of family violence in adults and children are difficult to obtain. Most are based on surveys or registration counts, whose research designs and methods are often questionable, making the results difficult to compare. This article presents an alternative

  14. Urban-Rural estimation of hepatitis c virus infection sero-prevalence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background/Objective: The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been partially described for at risk groups in urban communities in Nigeria. On the other hand, literature on the possible spread of the virus in rural Nigeria remains extremely scanty. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of ...

  15. Specific and unspecific gynecological alarm symptoms -prevalence estimates in different age groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balasubramaniam, Kirubakaran; Ravn, Pernille; Larsen, Pia V

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine prevalence estimates of gynecological alarm symptoms in different age groups and to describe common patterns of gynecological symptoms. DESIGN: Web-based cross-sectional survey study. SETTING: Nationwide in Denmark. POPULATION: A random sample of 51 090 women aged 20 years...

  16. The National and Regional Prevalence Rates of Disability, Type, of Disability and Severity in Saudi Arabia-Analysis of 2016 Demographic Survey Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindawas, Saad M; Vennu, Vishal

    2018-02-28

    The prevalence of disability varies between countries ranging from less than 1% to up to 30% in some countries, thus, the estimated global disability prevalence is about 15%. However, it is unknown what the current estimate of disability and its types and severity are in Saudi Arabia. Thus, the objective of this study is to estimate national and regional prevalence rates of any disability, types of disability, and their severity among Saudi populations. Data on disability status were extracted from the national demographic survey conducted in 2016 as reported by the General Authority for Statistics, Saudi Arabia (N = 20,064,970). Prevalence rates per a population of 100,000 of any disability, type of disability, and its severity were calculated at the national level and in all 13 regions. Out of 20,064,970 Saudi citizens surveyed, 667,280 citizens reported disabilities, accounting for a prevalence rate of 3326 per a population of 100,000 (3.3%). Individuals aged 60 years and above (11,014) and males (3818) had a higher prevalence rate of disability compared with females (2813). The Tabuk region has the highest rate of reported disability, at 4.3%. The prevalence rates of extreme disabilities in mobility and sight were higher in Madinah (57,343) and Northern border (41,236) regions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, more than half a million Saudi citizens (1 out of every 30 individuals) reported the presence of disability during the year 2016. A higher prevalence rate of disability was seen among those aged 60 years and above, and males. Targeted efforts are required at the national and regional levels to expand and improve rehabilitation and social services for all people with disabilities.

  17. Optimized support vector regression for drilling rate of penetration estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodaghi, Asadollah; Ansari, Hamid Reza; Gholami, Mahsa

    2015-12-01

    In the petroleum industry, drilling optimization involves the selection of operating conditions for achieving the desired depth with the minimum expenditure while requirements of personal safety, environment protection, adequate information of penetrated formations and productivity are fulfilled. Since drilling optimization is highly dependent on the rate of penetration (ROP), estimation of this parameter is of great importance during well planning. In this research, a novel approach called `optimized support vector regression' is employed for making a formulation between input variables and ROP. Algorithms used for optimizing the support vector regression are the genetic algorithm (GA) and the cuckoo search algorithm (CS). Optimization implementation improved the support vector regression performance by virtue of selecting proper values for its parameters. In order to evaluate the ability of optimization algorithms in enhancing SVR performance, their results were compared to the hybrid of pattern search and grid search (HPG) which is conventionally employed for optimizing SVR. The results demonstrated that the CS algorithm achieved further improvement on prediction accuracy of SVR compared to the GA and HPG as well. Moreover, the predictive model derived from back propagation neural network (BPNN), which is the traditional approach for estimating ROP, is selected for comparisons with CSSVR. The comparative results revealed the superiority of CSSVR. This study inferred that CSSVR is a viable option for precise estimation of ROP.

  18. Estimation of human core temperature from sequential heart rate observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buller, Mark J; Tharion, William J; Cheuvront, Samuel N; Montain, Scott J; Kenefick, Robert W; Castellani, John; Latzka, William A; Hoyt, Reed W; Roberts, Warren S; Richter, Mark; Jenkins, Odest Chadwicke

    2013-01-01

    Core temperature (CT) in combination with heart rate (HR) can be a good indicator of impending heat exhaustion for occupations involving exposure to heat, heavy workloads, and wearing protective clothing. However, continuously measuring CT in an ambulatory environment is difficult. To address this problem we developed a model to estimate the time course of CT using a series of HR measurements as a leading indicator using a Kalman filter. The model was trained using data from 17 volunteers engaged in a 24 h military field exercise (air temperatures 24–36 °C, and 42%–97% relative humidity and CTs ranging from 36.0–40.0 °C). Validation data from laboratory and field studies (N = 83) encompassing various combinations of temperature, hydration, clothing, and acclimation state were examined using the Bland–Altman limits of agreement (LoA) method. We found our model had an overall bias of −0.03 ± 0.32 °C and that 95% of all CT estimates fall within ±0.63 °C (>52 000 total observations). While the model for estimating CT is not a replacement for direct measurement of CT (literature comparisons of esophageal and rectal methods average LoAs of ±0.58 °C) our results suggest it is accurate enough to provide practical indication of thermal work strain for use in the work place. (paper)

  19. Estimation of human core temperature from sequential heart rate observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buller, Mark J; Tharion, William J; Cheuvront, Samuel N; Montain, Scott J; Kenefick, Robert W; Castellani, John; Latzka, William A; Roberts, Warren S; Richter, Mark; Jenkins, Odest Chadwicke; Hoyt, Reed W

    2013-07-01

    Core temperature (CT) in combination with heart rate (HR) can be a good indicator of impending heat exhaustion for occupations involving exposure to heat, heavy workloads, and wearing protective clothing. However, continuously measuring CT in an ambulatory environment is difficult. To address this problem we developed a model to estimate the time course of CT using a series of HR measurements as a leading indicator using a Kalman filter. The model was trained using data from 17 volunteers engaged in a 24 h military field exercise (air temperatures 24-36 °C, and 42%-97% relative humidity and CTs ranging from 36.0-40.0 °C). Validation data from laboratory and field studies (N = 83) encompassing various combinations of temperature, hydration, clothing, and acclimation state were examined using the Bland-Altman limits of agreement (LoA) method. We found our model had an overall bias of -0.03 ± 0.32 °C and that 95% of all CT estimates fall within ±0.63 °C (>52 000 total observations). While the model for estimating CT is not a replacement for direct measurement of CT (literature comparisons of esophageal and rectal methods average LoAs of ±0.58 °C) our results suggest it is accurate enough to provide practical indication of thermal work strain for use in the work place.

  20. Increasing fMRI sampling rate improves Granger causality estimates.

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    Fa-Hsuan Lin

    Full Text Available Estimation of causal interactions between brain areas is necessary for elucidating large-scale functional brain networks underlying behavior and cognition. Granger causality analysis of time series data can quantitatively estimate directional information flow between brain regions. Here, we show that such estimates are significantly improved when the temporal sampling rate of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI is increased 20-fold. Specifically, healthy volunteers performed a simple visuomotor task during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD contrast based whole-head inverse imaging (InI. Granger causality analysis based on raw InI BOLD data sampled at 100-ms resolution detected the expected causal relations, whereas when the data were downsampled to the temporal resolution of 2 s typically used in echo-planar fMRI, the causality could not be detected. An additional control analysis, in which we SINC interpolated additional data points to the downsampled time series at 0.1-s intervals, confirmed that the improvements achieved with the real InI data were not explainable by the increased time-series length alone. We therefore conclude that the high-temporal resolution of InI improves the Granger causality connectivity analysis of the human brain.

  1. Estimating Steatosis Prevalence in Overweight and Obese Children: Comparison of Bayesian Small Area and Direct Methods

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    Hamid Reza Khalkhali

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Often, there is no access to sufficient sample size to estimate the prevalence using the method of direct estimator in all areas. The aim of this study was to compare small area’s Bayesian method and direct method in estimating the prevalence of steatosis in obese and overweight children. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, was conducted on 150 overweight and obese children aged 2 to 15 years referred to the Children's digestive clinic of Urmia University of Medical Sciences- Iran, in 2013. After Body mass index (BMI calculation, children with overweight and obese were assessed in terms of primary tests of obesity screening. Then children with steatosis confirmed by abdominal Ultrasonography, were referred to the laboratory for doing further tests. Steatosis prevalence was estimated by direct and Bayesian method and their efficiency were evaluated using mean-square error Jackknife method. The study data was analyzed using the open BUGS3.1.2 and R2.15.2 software. Results: The findings indicated that estimation of steatosis prevalence in children using Bayesian and direct methods were between 0.3098 to 0.493, and 0.355 to 0.560 respectively, in Health Districts; 0.3098 to 0.502, and 0.355 to 0.550 in Education Districts; 0.321 to 0.582, and 0.357 to 0.615 in age groups; 0.313 to 0.429, and 0.383 to 0.536 in sex groups. In general, according to the results, mean-square error of Bayesian estimation was smaller than direct estimation (P

  2. National South African HIV prevalence estimates robust despite substantial test non-participation

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    Guy Harling

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. South African (SA national HIV seroprevalence estimates are of crucial policy relevance in the country, and for the worldwide HIV response. However, the most recent nationally representative HIV test survey in 2012 had 22% test non-participation, leaving the potential for substantial bias in current seroprevalence estimates, even after controlling for selection on observed factors. Objective. To re-estimate national HIV prevalence in SA, controlling for bias due to selection on both observed and unobserved factors in the 2012 SA National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. Methods. We jointly estimated regression models for consent to test and HIV status in a Heckman-type bivariate probit framework. As selection variable, we used assigned interviewer identity, a variable known to predict consent but highly unlikely to be associated with interviewees’ HIV status. From these models, we estimated the HIV status of interviewed participants who did not test. Results. Of 26 710 interviewed participants who were invited to test for HIV, 21.3% of females and 24.3% of males declined. Interviewer identity was strongly correlated with consent to test for HIV; declining a test was weakly associated with HIV serostatus. Our HIV prevalence estimates were not significantly different from those using standard methods to control for bias due to selection on observed factors: 15.1% (95% confidence interval (CI 12.1 - 18.6 v. 14.5% (95% CI 12.8 - 16.3 for 15 - 49-year-old males; 23.3% (95% CI 21.7 - 25.8 v. 23.2% (95% CI 21.3 - 25.1 for 15 - 49-year-old females. Conclusion. The most recent SA HIV prevalence estimates are robust under the strongest available test for selection bias due to missing data. Our findings support the reliability of inferences drawn from such data.

  3. Commercial Discount Rate Estimation for Efficiency Standards Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, K. Sydny [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-04-13

    Underlying each of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) federal appliance and equipment standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). A proposed standard is considered economically justified when its benefits exceed its burdens, as represented by the projected net present value of costs and benefits. DOE performs multiple analyses to evaluate the balance of costs and benefits of commercial appliance and equipment e efficiency standards, at the national and individual building or business level, each framed to capture different nuances of the complex impact of standards on the commercial end user population. The Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels.1 Thus, the choice of commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the Life-Cycle Cost model implicitly plays a key role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels.2 This report is intended to provide a more in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process than can be readily included in standard rulemaking Technical Support Documents (TSDs).

  4. Automatic estimation of pressure-dependent rate coefficients

    KAUST Repository

    Allen, Joshua W.; Goldsmith, C. Franklin; Green, William H.

    2012-01-01

    A general framework is presented for accurately and efficiently estimating the phenomenological pressure-dependent rate coefficients for reaction networks of arbitrary size and complexity using only high-pressure-limit information. Two aspects of this framework are discussed in detail. First, two methods of estimating the density of states of the species in the network are presented, including a new method based on characteristic functional group frequencies. Second, three methods of simplifying the full master equation model of the network to a single set of phenomenological rates are discussed, including a new method based on the reservoir state and pseudo-steady state approximations. Both sets of methods are evaluated in the context of the chemically-activated reaction of acetyl with oxygen. All three simplifications of the master equation are usually accurate, but each fails in certain situations, which are discussed. The new methods usually provide good accuracy at a computational cost appropriate for automated reaction mechanism generation. This journal is © the Owner Societies.

  5. Prevalence of hearing impairment in a rural midwestern cohort: estimates from the Keokuk county rural health study, 1994 to 1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamme, Gregory A; Mudipalli, V Ranjit; Reynolds, Stephen J; Kelly, Kevin M; Stromquist, Ann M; Zwerling, Craig; Burmeister, Leon F; Peng, Shu-Chen; Merchant, James A

    2005-06-01

    The current paper estimates the prevalence of hearing problems in a rural population, analyzes the prevalence of hearing problems across age groups, and compares the prevalence of hearing problems in this population with results obtained in other populations. Data were obtained from a random sample of the residents of a rural county, stratified by farm, rural non-farm, and town residence. Hearing test results were obtained from participants between the ages of 8 and 92 years (N = 1972; 47% male). Pure-tone thresholds were classified as normal or impaired using a number of metrics, including speech intelligibility index values. Selected comparisons of crude rates were made with previous population-based studies of hearing loss prevalence. Nearly all (99%) of the participants in this study had significant hearing impairment. Atypical hearing impairment is most prevalent at 6 kHz. In males, this excess impairment shifts to lower frequencies with age but monotonically decreases in females. Notched configurations were most common among those between 30 and 59 years old. In females, the prevalence of hearing impairments sufficient to interfere with speech understanding begins to rapidly increase in the 6th decade (4th decade in males). Comparisons with prior population-based studies in the United States and Great Britain identified few significant differences. Significant hearing impairment is common in rural populations. The high prevalence in this population is similar to that found in other population-based studies. Future studies are needed to examine (1) the risk factors for hearing impairment, (2) the natural course of hearing problems across the life span, and (3) the effect of programs for the prevention of hearing impairment and rehabilitation for persons with existing hearing impairments.

  6. The Relationship Between Child Mortality Rates and Prevalence of Celiac Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagi, Federico; Raiteri, Alberto; Schiepatti, Annalisa; Klersy, Catherine; Corazza, Gino R

    2018-02-01

    Some evidence suggests that prevalence of celiac disease in the general population is increasing over time. Because the prognosis of celiac disease was a dismal one before discovering the role of gluten, our aim was to investigate a possible relationship between children under-5 mortality rates and prevalence rates of celiac disease. Thanks to a literature review, we found 27 studies performed in 17 different countries describing the prevalence of celiac disease in schoolchildren; between 1995 and 2011, 4 studies were performed in Italy. A meta-analysis of prevalence rates was performed. Prevalence was compared between specific country under-5 mortality groups, publication year, and age. In the last decades, under-5 mortality rates have been decreasing all over the world. This reduction is paralleled by an increase of the prevalence of celiac disease. The Spearman correlation coefficient was -63%, 95% confidence interval -82% to -33% (P celiac disease in the general population. In the near future, the number of patients with celiac disease will increase, thanks to the better environmental conditions that nowadays allow a better survival of children with celiac disease.

  7. Gender-specific estimates of COPD prevalence: a systematic review and meta-analysis

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    Ntritsos G

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Georgios Ntritsos,1 Jacob Franek,2 Lazaros Belbasis,1 Maria A Christou,1 Georgios Markozannes,1 Pablo Altman,3 Robert Fogel,3 Tobias Sayre,2 Evangelia E Ntzani,1 Evangelos Evangelou1,4 1Clinical and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece; 2Doctor Evidence, Client Solutions, Santa Monica, CA, USA; 3Global Medical Affairs, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hanover, NJ, USA; 4Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, UK Rationale: COPD has been perceived as being a disease of older men. However, >7 million women are estimated to live with COPD in the USA alone. Despite a growing body of literature suggesting an increasing burden of COPD in women, the evidence is limited. Objectives: To assess and synthesize the available evidence among population-based epidemiologic studies and calculate the global prevalence of COPD in men and women. Materials and methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis reporting gender-specific prevalence of COPD was undertaken. Gender-specific prevalence estimates were abstracted from relevant studies. Associated patient characteristics as well as custom variables pertaining to the diagnostic method and other important epidemiologic covariates were also collected. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was performed investigating gender-specific prevalence of COPD stratified by age, geography, calendar time, study setting, diagnostic method, and disease severity. Measurements and main results: Among 194 eligible studies, summary prevalence was 9.23% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 8.16%–10.36% in men and 6.16% (95% CrI: 5.41%–6.95% in women. Gender prevalences varied widely by the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease subregions, with the highest female prevalence found in North America (8.07% vs 7.30% and in participants in urban settings (13.03% vs 8.34%. Meta

  8. Estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

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    Paula Caitano Fontela

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to estimate the glomerular filtration using the Cockcroft-Gault (CG, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD, and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI equations, and serum creatinine in the screening of reduced renal function in patients with type two diabetes (T2DM enrolled in the Family Health Strategy (ESF, Brazilian federal health-care program. Methods: a cross-sectional descriptive and analytical study was conducted. The protocol consisted of sociodemographics, physical examination and biochemical tests. Renal function was analyzed through serum creatinine and glomerular filtration rate (GFR estimated according to the CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI equations, available on the websites of the Brazilian Nephrology Society (SBN and the (NKF. Results: 146 patients aged 60.9±8.9 years were evaluated; 64.4% were women. The prevalence of serum creatinine >1.2 mg/dL was 18.5% and GFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 totaled 25.3, 36.3 and 34.2% when evaluated by the equations CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI, respectively. Diabetic patients with reduced renal function were older, had long-term T2DM diagnosis, higher systolic blood pressure and higher levels of fasting glucose, compared to diabetics with normal renal function. Creatinine showed strong negative correlation with the glomerular filtration rate estimated using CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI (-0.64, -0.87, -0.89 equations, respectively. Conclusion: the prevalence of individuals with reduced renal function based on serum creatinine was lower, reinforcing the need to follow the recommendations of the SBN and the National Kidney Disease Education Program (NKDEP in estimating the value of the glomerular filtration rate as a complement to the results of serum creatinine to better assess the renal function of patients.

  9. Current and projected prevalence of arterial hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa by sex, age and habitat: an estimate from population studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twagirumukiza, Marc; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kips, Jan G; de Backer, Guy; Stichele, Robert Vander; Van Bortel, Luc M

    2011-07-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), data on hypertension prevalence in terms of urban or rural and sex difference are lacking, heterogeneous or contradictory. In addition, there are no accurate estimates of hypertension burden. To estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of arterial hypertension in SSA in urban and rural adult populations. We searched for population studies, conducted from 1998 through 2008 in SSA. We extracted data from selected studies on available prevalences and used a logistic regression model to estimate all age/sex/habitat (urban/rural)/country-specific prevalences for SSA up to 2008 and 2025. On the basis of the United Nations Population Fund data for 2008 and predictions for 2025, we estimated the number of hypertensives in both years. Seventeen studies pertaining to 11 countries were analysed. The overall prevalence rate of hypertension in SSA for 2008 was estimated at 16.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.1-20.3], ranging from 10.6% in Ethiopia to 26.9% in Ghana. The estimated prevalence was 13.7% in rural areas, 20.7% in urban areas, 16.8% in males, and 15.7% in women. The total number of hypertensives in SSA was estimated at 75 million (95% CI 65-93 million) in 2008 and at 125.5 million (95% CI 111.0-162.9 million) by 2025. The estimated number of hypertensives in 2008 is nearly four times higher than the last (2005) estimate of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Prevalences were significantly higher in urban than in rural populations. Population data are lacking in many countries underlining the need for national surveys.

  10. Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

    2014-01-01

    Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

  11. Anxiety and dysthymia: local prevalence estimates based on drug prescriptions by general practitioners in Turin (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamo, C; Farina, E; Cicio, R; Fanì, M

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to obtain local estimates of the prevalence of anxiety and dysthymic disorders among attendees of primary care at local level, useful to pursue a better management of the health care services. The study was conducted in the Health District no. 2 of Turin (industrial town in northwest Italy). The criteria for identification of cases were based on the drugs prescriptions made by general practitioners (GPs), selected in order to assure high specificity. The study involved 86 physicians (with 87,885 attendees). As expected, the crude and standardized prevalences were higher in women (anxiety: 2.9% vs 1.3% in men; dysthymia: 3.8% vs 1.7% in men), with a peak in women aged over 75 yrs (anxiety: 4.8%; dysthymia: 6.2%). In comparison to male GPs, female GPs had an higher prevalence of patients with anxious disorders, whereas the prevalences of dysthymia were similar. Despite the discussed limitations, the used methodology allows to obtain sufficiently reliable estimates of prevalence of common mental disorders at local level, providing informations useful for organizing the primary care in the Health district.

  12. Small area estimation of obesity prevalence and dietary patterns: a model applied to Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cataife, Guido

    2014-03-01

    We propose the use of previously developed small area estimation techniques to monitor obesity and dietary habits in developing countries and apply the model to Rio de Janeiro city. We estimate obesity prevalence rates at the Census Tract through a combinatorial optimization spatial microsimulation model that matches body mass index and socio-demographic data in Brazil's 2008-9 family expenditure survey with Census 2010 socio-demographic data. Obesity ranges from 8% to 25% in most areas and affects the poor almost as much as the rich. Male and female obesity rates are uncorrelated at the small area level. The model is an effective tool to understand the complexity of the problem and to aid in policy design. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Estimation of Microbial Contamination of Food from Prevalence and Concentration Data: Application to Listeria monocytogenes in Fresh Vegetables▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crépet, Amélie; Albert, Isabelle; Dervin, Catherine; Carlin, Frédéric

    2007-01-01

    A normal distribution and a mixture model of two normal distributions in a Bayesian approach using prevalence and concentration data were used to establish the distribution of contamination of the food-borne pathogenic bacteria Listeria monocytogenes in unprocessed and minimally processed fresh vegetables. A total of 165 prevalence studies, including 15 studies with concentration data, were taken from the scientific literature and from technical reports and used for statistical analysis. The predicted mean of the normal distribution of the logarithms of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was −2.63 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g, and its standard deviation was 1.48 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. These values were determined by considering one contaminated sample in prevalence studies in which samples are in fact negative. This deliberate overestimation is necessary to complete calculations. With the mixture model, the predicted mean of the distribution of the logarithm of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was −3.38 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g and its standard deviation was 1.46 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. The probabilities of fresh unprocessed and minimally processed vegetables being contaminated with concentrations higher than 1, 2, and 3 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g were 1.44, 0.63, and 0.17%, respectively. Introducing a sensitivity rate of 80 or 95% in the mixture model had a small effect on the estimation of the contamination. In contrast, introducing a low sensitivity rate (40%) resulted in marked differences, especially for high percentiles. There was a significantly lower estimation of contamination in the papers and reports of 2000 to 2005 than in those of 1988 to 1999 and a lower estimation of contamination of leafy salads than that of sprouts and other vegetables. The interest of the mixture model for the estimation of microbial contamination is discussed. PMID

  14. Prevalence and incidence rate of injuries in runners at a local athletic club in Cape Town

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hendricks

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available People across the world are running on a daily basis to improvetheir health status. However, running can predispose an individual to injuryto the back and lower limb. Baseline data on prevalence, incidence rate ofinjury and aetiological factors associated with running injuries are neededby physiotherapists to develop and implement effective prevention programmesto allow optimal performance in runners. Thus, the purpose of this study wasto determine the prevalence and incidence of injuries in runners at a localathletic club.Methods: A prospective, non-experimental cohort study was conductedover a 16 week period. A sample of 50 runners completed a self-administeredquestionnaire and an injury report form recording injuries sustained during the 16 week study period. Injury prevalence andcumulative incidence was calculated as a proportion rate along with 95% confidence interval.Results: The prevalence rate of injuries was 32%. The incidence rate of injuries was 0.67 per 1000km run (95% CI: 0.41- 1.08.The most common anatomical sites for new injuries were the calf (20% and the knee (18%.Conclusions: The study found a moderate prevalence and incidence rate of injury in runners, thus the need for physiotherapyledinjury surveillance and prevention programmes have been highlighted.

  15. Estimation of adjusted rate differences using additive negative binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donoghoe, Mark W; Marschner, Ian C

    2016-08-15

    Rate differences are an important effect measure in biostatistics and provide an alternative perspective to rate ratios. When the data are event counts observed during an exposure period, adjusted rate differences may be estimated using an identity-link Poisson generalised linear model, also known as additive Poisson regression. A problem with this approach is that the assumption of equality of mean and variance rarely holds in real data, which often show overdispersion. An additive negative binomial model is the natural alternative to account for this; however, standard model-fitting methods are often unable to cope with the constrained parameter space arising from the non-negativity restrictions of the additive model. In this paper, we propose a novel solution to this problem using a variant of the expectation-conditional maximisation-either algorithm. Our method provides a reliable way to fit an additive negative binomial regression model and also permits flexible generalisations using semi-parametric regression functions. We illustrate the method using a placebo-controlled clinical trial of fenofibrate treatment in patients with type II diabetes, where the outcome is the number of laser therapy courses administered to treat diabetic retinopathy. An R package is available that implements the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. An estimation of the prevalence of genomic disorders using chromosomal microarray data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillentine, Madelyn A; Lupo, Philip J; Stankiewicz, Pawel; Schaaf, Christian P

    2018-04-24

    Multiple genomic disorders result from recurrent deletions or duplications between low copy repeat (LCR) clusters, mediated by nonallelic homologous recombination. These copy number variants (CNVs) often exhibit variable expressivity and/or incomplete penetrance. However, the population prevalence of many genomic disorders has not been estimated accurately. A subset of genomic disorders similarly characterized by CNVs between LCRs have been studied epidemiologically, including Williams-Beuren syndrome (7q11.23), Smith-Magenis syndrome (17p11.2), velocardiofacial syndrome (22q11.21), Prader-Willi/Angelman syndromes (15q11.2q12), 17q12 deletion syndrome, and Charcot-Marie-Tooth neuropathy type 1/hereditary neuropathy with liability to pressure palsy (PMP22, 17q11.2). We have generated a method to estimate prevalence of highly penetrant genomic disorders by (1) leveraging epidemiological data for genomic disorders with previously reported prevalence estimates, (2) obtaining chromosomal microarray data on genomic disorders from a large medical genetics clinic; and (3) utilizing these in a linear regression model to determine the prevalence of this syndromic copy number change among the general population. Using our algorithm, the prevalence for five clinically relevant recurrent genomic disorders: 1q21.1 microdeletion (1/6882 live births) and microduplication syndromes (1/6309), 15q13.3 microdeletion syndrome (1/5525), and 16p11.2 microdeletion (1/3021) and microduplication syndromes (1/4216), were determined. These findings will inform epidemiological strategies for evaluating those conditions, and our method may be useful to evaluate the prevalence of other highly penetrant genomic disorders.

  17. High rates of incident and prevalent anal human papillomavirus infection among young men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Sara Nelson; Feng, Qinghua; Popov, Viorica; Koutsky, Laura A; Golden, Matthew R

    2014-02-01

    There are few published estimates of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection rates among young men who have sex with men (YMSM). We estimated incidence and prevalence of type-specific anal HPV infection using clinician-collected anal swabs for HPV DNA testing obtained during a 1-year prospective study of 94 YMSM (mean age, 21 years) in Seattle. Seventy percent of YMSM had any HPV infection detected during the study, and HPV-16 and/or -18 were detected in 37%. The incidence rate for any new HPV infection was 38.5 per 1000 person-months and 15.3 per 1000 person-months for HPV-16/18; 19% had persistent HPV-16/18 infection. No participant tested positive for all 4 HPV types in the quadrivalent vaccine. The number of lifetime male receptive anal sex partners was significantly associated with HPV infection. The prevalence of HPV-16/18 was 6% among YMSM with a history of 1 receptive anal sex partner and 31% among YMSM with ≥ 2 partners. Although the high prevalence of HPV among YMSM highlights the desirability of vaccinating all boys as a strategy to avert the morbidity of HPV infection, most YMSM appear to remain naive to either HPV-16 or -18 well into their sexual lives and would benefit from HPV immunization.

  18. Estimating implied rates of discount in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R R; McNabb, R; Thompson, A G H; Sheldon, T A; Grimley Evans, J

    2003-01-01

    To consider whether implied rates of discounting from the perspectives of individual and society differ, and whether implied rates of discounting in health differ from those implied in choices involving finance or "goods". The study comprised first a review of economics, health economics and social science literature and then an empirical estimate of implied rates of discounting in four fields: personal financial, personal health, public financial and public health, in representative samples of the public and of healthcare professionals. Samples were drawn in the former county and health authority district of South Glamorgan, Wales. The public sample was a representative random sample of men and women, aged over 18 years and drawn from electoral registers. The health professional sample was drawn at random with the cooperation of professional leads to include doctors, nurses, professions allied to medicine, public health, planners and administrators. The literature review revealed few empirical studies in representative samples of the population, few direct comparisons of public with private decision-making and few direct comparisons of health with financial discounting. Implied rates of discounting varied widely and studies suggested that discount rates are higher the smaller the value of the outcome and the shorter the period considered. The relationship between implied discount rates and personal attributes was mixed, possibly reflecting the limited nature of the samples. Although there were few direct comparisons, some studies found that individuals apply different rates of discount to social compared with private comparisons and health compared with financial. The present study also found a wide range of implied discount rates, with little systematic effect of age, gender, educational level or long-term illness. There was evidence, in both samples, that people chose a lower rate of discount in comparisons made on behalf of society than in comparisons made for

  19. Accidental hypothermia in Poland – estimation of prevalence, diagnostic methods and treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosiński, Sylweriusz; Darocha, Tomasz; Gałązkowski, Robert; Drwiła, Rafał

    2015-02-06

    The incidence of hypothermia is difficult to evaluate, and the data concerning the morbidity and mortality rates do not seem to fully represent the problem. The aim of the study was to estimate the actual prevalence of accidental hypothermia in Poland, as well as the methods of diagnosis and management procedures used in emergency rooms (ERs). A specially designed questionnaire, consisting of 14 questions, was mailed to all the 223 emergency rooms (ER) in Poland. The questions concerned the incidence, methods of diagnosis and risk factors, as well as the rewarming methods used and available measurement instruments. The analysis involved data from 42 ERs providing emergency healthcare for the population of 5,305,000. The prevalence of accidental hypothermia may have been 5.05 cases per 100.000 residents per year. Among the 268 cases listed 25% were diagnosed with codes T68, T69 or X31, and in 75% hypothermia was neither included nor assigned a code in the final diagnosis. The most frequent cause of hypothermia was exposure to cold air alongside ethanol abuse (68%). Peripheral temperature was measured in 57%, core temperature measurement was taken in 29% of the patients. Peripheral temperature was measured most often at the axilla, while core temperature measurement was predominantly taken rectally. Mild hypothermia was diagnosed in 75.5% of the patients, moderate (32-28°C) in 16.5%, while severe hypothermia (less than 28°C) in 8% of the cases. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation was carried out in 7.5% of the patients. The treatment involved mainly warmed intravenous fluids (83.5%) and active external rewarming measures (70%). In no case was extracorporeal rewarming put to use. The actual incidence of accidental hypothermia in Polish emergency departments may exceed up to four times the official data. Core temperature is taken only in one third of the patients, the treatment of hypothermic patients is rarely conducted in intensive care wards and extracorporeal rewarming

  20. Does multimorbidity influence the occurrence rates of chronic conditions? A claims data based comparison of expected and observed prevalence rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Schäfer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Multimorbidity is a complex phenomenon with an almost endless number of possible disease combinations with unclear implications. One important aspect in analyzing the clustering of diseases is to distinguish between random coexistence and statistical dependency. We developed a model to account for random coexistence based on stochastic distribution. We analyzed if the number of diseases of the patients influences the occurrence rates of chronic conditions. METHODS: We analyzed claims data of 121,389 persons aged 65+ using a list of 46 chronic conditions. Expected prevalences were simulated by drawing without replacement from all observed diseases using observed overall prevalences as initial probability weights. To determine if a disease occurs more or less frequently than expected by chance we calculated observed-minus-expected deltas for each disease. We defined clinical relevance as |delta| ≥ 5.0%. 18 conditions were excluded because of a prevalence < 5.0%. RESULTS: We found that (1 two chronic conditions (e.g. hypertension were more frequent than expected in patients with a low number of comorbidities; (2 four conditions (e.g. renal insufficiency were more frequent in patients with many comorbidities; (3 six conditions (e.g. cancer were less frequent with many comorbidities; and (4 16 conditions had an average course of prevalences. CONCLUSION: A growing extent of multimorbidity goes along with a rapid growth of prevalences. This is for the largest part merely a stochastic effect. If we account for this effect we find that only few diseases deviate from the expected prevalence curves. Causes for these deviations are discussed. Our approach also has methodological implications: Naive analyses of multimorbidity might easily be affected by bias, because the prevalence of all chronic conditions necessarily increases with a growing extent of multimorbidity. We should therefore always examine and discuss the stochastic interrelations

  1. SEE rate estimation based on diffusion approximation of charge collection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sogoyan, Armen V.; Chumakov, Alexander I.; Smolin, Anatoly A.

    2018-03-01

    The integral rectangular parallelepiped (IRPP) method remains the main approach to single event rate (SER) prediction for aerospace systems, despite the growing number of issues impairing method's validity when applied to scaled technology nodes. One of such issues is uncertainty in parameters extraction in the IRPP method, which can lead to a spread of several orders of magnitude in the subsequently calculated SER. The paper presents an alternative approach to SER estimation based on diffusion approximation of the charge collection by an IC element and geometrical interpretation of SEE cross-section. In contrast to the IRPP method, the proposed model includes only two parameters which are uniquely determined from the experimental data for normal incidence irradiation at an ion accelerator. This approach eliminates the necessity of arbitrary decisions during parameter extraction and, thus, greatly simplifies calculation procedure and increases the robustness of the forecast.

  2. Estimation of mortality rates in stage-structured population

    CERN Document Server

    Wood, Simon N

    1991-01-01

    The stated aims of the Lecture Notes in Biomathematics allow for work that is "unfinished or tentative". This volume is offered in that spirit. The problem addressed is one of the classics of statistical ecology, the estimation of mortality rates from stage-frequency data, but in tackling it we found ourselves making use of ideas and techniques very different from those we expected to use, and in which we had no previous experience. Specifically we drifted towards consideration of some rather specific curve and surface fitting and smoothing techniques. We think we have made some progress (otherwise why publish?), but are acutely aware of the conceptual and statistical clumsiness of parts of the work. Readers with sufficient expertise to be offended should regard the monograph as a challenge to do better. The central theme in this book is a somewhat complex algorithm for mortality estimation (detailed at the end of Chapter 4). Because of its complexity, the job of implementing the method is intimidating. Any r...

  3. Estimation of respiratory rate from thermal videos of preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Carina Barbosa; Heimann, Konrad; Venema, Boudewijn; Blazek, Vladimir; Czaplik, Michael; Leonhardt, Steffen

    2017-07-01

    Studies have demonstrated that respiratory rate (RR) is a good predictor of the patient condition as well as an early marker of patient deterioration and physiological distress. However, it is also referred as "the neglected vital parameter". This is mainly due to shortcoming of current monitoring techniques. Moreover, in preterm infants, the removal of adhesive electrodes cause epidermal stripping, skin disruption, and with it pain. This paper proposes a new algorithm for estimation of RR in thermal videos of moderate preterm infants. It uses the temperature modulation around the nostrils over the respiratory cycle to extract this vital parameter. To compensate movement artifacts the approach incorporates a tracking algorithm. In addition, a new reliable and accurate algorithm for robust estimation of local (breath-to-breath) intervals was included. To evaluate the performance of this approach, thermal recordings of four moderate preterm infants were acquired. Results were compared with RR derived from body surface electrocardiography. The results showed an excellent agreement between thermal imaging and gold standard. On average, the relative error between both monitoring techniques was 3.42%. In summary, infrared thermography may be a clinically relevant alternative to conventional sensors, due to its high thermal resolution and outstanding characteristics.

  4. Hypertension prevalence and influence of basal metabolic rate on blood pressure among adult students in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurshad Ali

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hypertension is a global health issue and is currently increasing at rapid pace in South Asian countries including Bangladesh. Although, some studies on hypertension have been conducted in Bangladesh, there is a lack of scientific evidence in the adult student population that was missing from the previous and recent national cross-sectional studies. Moreover, the specific risk factors of hypertension in the Bangladeshi adults still need to be investigated. This study was conducted to estimate hypertension prevalence among adult students in Bangladesh and to test the hypothesis of Luke et al. (Hypertension 43:555–560, 2004 that basal metabolic rate (BMR and blood pressure are positively associated independent of body size. Method The data was collected on 184 adult university students (118 female and 66 male in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Anthropometric, BMR details and an average of at least two blood pressure measurements were obtained. Hypertension was defined by a systolic blood pressure (SBP ≥ 140 mmHg and/or, diastolic blood pressure (DBP ≥ 90 mmHg. Results Overall, 6.5% of participants had hypertension with significantly (p < 0.001 higher prevalence in male (12.1% than in the female (3.4% students. Age and BMI showed positive and significant correlation with hypertension among the students. When adjusted for body mass index (BMI, as well as other potentially confounding variables such as age, sex, smoking status and degree of urbanization, BMR was positively correlated with SBP and DBP (p < 0.001. Thus, higher BMR is associated with SBP and DBP; this is opposite the well documented inverse relationship between physical activity and blood pressure. If the influence of BMR on blood pressure is confirmed, the systematically elevated BMR might be an important predictor that can explain relatively high blood pressure and hypertension in humans. Conclusion This study reports the prevalence and associated risk factors

  5. Hypertension prevalence and influence of basal metabolic rate on blood pressure among adult students in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Nurshad; Mahmood, Shakil; Manirujjaman, M; Perveen, Rasheda; Al Nahid, Abdullah; Ahmed, Shamim; Khanum, Farida Adib; Rahman, Mustafizur

    2017-07-25

    Hypertension is a global health issue and is currently increasing at rapid pace in South Asian countries including Bangladesh. Although, some studies on hypertension have been conducted in Bangladesh, there is a lack of scientific evidence in the adult student population that was missing from the previous and recent national cross-sectional studies. Moreover, the specific risk factors of hypertension in the Bangladeshi adults still need to be investigated. This study was conducted to estimate hypertension prevalence among adult students in Bangladesh and to test the hypothesis of Luke et al. (Hypertension 43:555-560, 2004) that basal metabolic rate (BMR) and blood pressure are positively associated independent of body size. The data was collected on 184 adult university students (118 female and 66 male) in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Anthropometric, BMR details and an average of at least two blood pressure measurements were obtained. Hypertension was defined by a systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥ 140 mmHg and/or, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥ 90 mmHg. Overall, 6.5% of participants had hypertension with significantly (p < 0.001) higher prevalence in male (12.1%) than in the female (3.4%) students. Age and BMI showed positive and significant correlation with hypertension among the students. When adjusted for body mass index (BMI), as well as other potentially confounding variables such as age, sex, smoking status and degree of urbanization, BMR was positively correlated with SBP and DBP (p < 0.001). Thus, higher BMR is associated with SBP and DBP; this is opposite the well documented inverse relationship between physical activity and blood pressure. If the influence of BMR on blood pressure is confirmed, the systematically elevated BMR might be an important predictor that can explain relatively high blood pressure and hypertension in humans. This study reports the prevalence and associated risk factors of hypertension in the Bangladeshi adult students. The

  6. Estimating the burden of acute gastrointestinal illness: a pilot study of the prevalence and underreporting in Saint Lucia, Eastern Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Owen O; Jaime, Alina; Mckensie, Martin; Auguste, Ava; Pérez, Enrique; Indar, Lisa

    2013-12-01

    Saint Lucia was the first country to conduct a burden of illness study in the Caribbean to determine the community prevalence and underreporting of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). A retrospective cross-sectional population survey on AGE-related illness was administered to a random sample of residents of Saint Lucia in 20 April-16 May 2008 and 6-13 December 2009 to capture the high- and low-AGE season respectively. Of the selected 1,150 individuals, 1,006 were administered the survey through face-to-face interviews (response rate 87.4%). The overall monthly prevalence of AGE was 3.9%. The yearly incidence rate was 0.52 episodes/person-year. The age-adjusted monthly prevalence was 4.6%. The highest monthly prevalence of AGE was among children aged < 5 years (7.5%) and the lowest in persons aged 45-64 years (2.6%). The average number of days an individual suffered from diarrhoea was 3.8 days [range 1-21 day(s)]. Of the reported AGE cases, only seven (18%) sought medical care; however, 83% stayed at home due to the illness [(range 1-16 day(s), mean 2.5]; and 26% required other individuals to take care of them. The estimated underreporting of syndromic AGE and laboratory-confirmed foodborne disease pathogens was 81% and 99% respectively during the study period. The economic cost for treating syndromic AGE was estimated at US$ 3,892.837 per annum. This was a pilot study on the burden of illness (BOI) in the Caribbean. The results of the study should be interpreted within the limitations and challenges of this study. Lessons learnt were used for improving the implementation procedures of other BOI studies in the Caribbean.

  7. Estimating the global prevalence of zinc deficiency: results based on zinc availability in national food supplies and the prevalence of stunting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Ryan Wessells

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adequate zinc nutrition is essential for adequate growth, immunocompetence and neurobehavioral development, but limited information on population zinc status hinders the expansion of interventions to control zinc deficiency. The present analyses were conducted to: (1 estimate the country-specific prevalence of inadequate zinc intake; and (2 investigate relationships between country-specific estimated prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and dietary patterns and stunting prevalence. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: National food balance sheet data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake were calculated based on the estimated absorbable zinc content of the national food supply, International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group estimated physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, and demographic data obtained from United Nations estimates. Stunting data were obtained from a recent systematic analysis based on World Health Organization growth standards. An estimated 17.3% of the world's population is at risk of inadequate zinc intake. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was negatively correlated with the total energy and zinc contents of the national food supply and the percent of zinc obtained from animal source foods, and positively correlated with the phytate: zinc molar ratio of the food supply. The estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was correlated with the prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age in children under five years of age (r = 0.48, P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: These results, which indicate that inadequate dietary zinc intake may be fairly common, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, allow inter-country comparisons regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem. Data from these analyses should be used to determine

  8. Bioavailability of contaminants estimated from uptake rates into soil invertebrates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Straalen, N.M. van; Donker, M.H.; Vijver, M.G.; Gestel, C.A.M. van

    2005-01-01

    It is often argued that the concentration of a pollutant inside an organism is a good indicator of its bioavailability, however, we show that the rate of uptake, not the concentration itself, is the superior predictor. In a study on zinc accumulation and toxicity to isopods (Porcellio scaber) the dietary EC 50 for the effect on body growth was rather constant and reproducible, while the internal EC 50 varied depending on the accumulation history of the animals. From the data a critical value for zinc accumulation in P. scaber was estimated as 53 μg/g/wk. We review toxicokinetic models applicable to time-series measurements of concentrations in invertebrates. The initial slope of the uptake curve is proposed as an indicator of bioavailability. To apply the dynamic concept of bioavailability in risk assessment, a set of representative organisms should be chosen and standardized protocols developed for exposure assays by which suspect soils can be evaluated. - Sublethal toxicity of zinc to isopods suggests that bioavailability of soil contaminants is best measured by uptake rates, not by body burdens

  9. A Spanish multicenter study to estimate the prevalence and incidence of chronic pancreatitis and its complications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Enrique Domínguez-Muñoz

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective: No nation-wide epidemiological study on the incidence and prevalence of chronic pancreatitis (CP had been thus far carried out in Spain. Our goal is to estimate the prevalence and incidence of CP, as well as to determine the diagnostic and therapeutic criteria used in Spanish pancreas units. Methods: An observarional, descriptive study of hospital pancreas units in Spain. CP-related epidemiology, etiology, manifestations, diagnostic tests, functional complications, and treatments were all assessed using a structured questionnaire. Overall results were estimated by weighting cases in each site. Results: Information was collected from six pancreas units with a sample frame of 1,900,751 inhabitants. Overall prevalence was 49.3 cases per 10(5 population (95 % CI, 46 to 52 and incidence was 5.5 cases per 10(5 inhabitant-years (95 % CI, 5.4 to 5.6. Most common etiologies included tobacco and alcoholism, which were associated with three in every four cases. The most prevalent symptoms were recurring pain (48.8 % and chronic abdominal pain (30.6 %. The most widely used diagnostic method was echoendoscopy (79.8 %, CT (computerized tomography (58.7 %, and MRI (magnetic resonance imaging/MRCP (magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (55.9 %. Most prevalent morphologic findings included calcifications (35 % and pseudocysts (27 %. Exocrine (38.8 % and endocrine (35.2 % pancreatic insufficiency had both a similar frequency. Treatments used were rather heterogeneous among sites, with enzyme replacement therapy (40.7 % and insulin (30.9 % being most commonly used. Conclusions: Pancreas units amass a significant number of both prevalent and incident CP cases. Patients seen in these units share a similar typology, and differences between units are greater regarding diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

  10. Utilizing Healthcare Developments, Demographic Data with Statistical Techniques to Estimate the Diarrhoea Prevalence in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Shweta; Vatsalya, Vatsalya; Arora, Ashoo; Arora, Kashmiri L; Karch, Robert

    2012-03-22

    Diarrhoea is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in developing countries in Africa and South Asia such as India. Prevalence of diarrheal diseases in those countries is higher than developed western world and largely has been associated with socio-economic and sanitary conditions. However, present available data has not been sufficiently evaluated to study the role of other factors like healthcare development, population density, sex and regional influence on diarrheal prevalence pattern. Study was performed to understand the relationship of diarrheal prevalence with specific measures namely; healthcare services development, demographics, population density, socio-economic conditions, sex, and regional prevalence patterns in India. Data from Annual national health reports and other epidemiological studies were included and statistically analyzed. Our results demonstrate significant correlation of the disease prevalence pattern with certain measures like healthcare centers, population growth rate, sex and region-specific morbidity. Available information on sanitation like water supply and toilet availability and socioeconomic conditions like poverty and literacy measures could only be associated as trends of significance. This study can be valuable for improvisation of appropriate strategies focused on important measures like healthcare resources, population growth and regional significances to evaluate prevalence patterns and management of the diarrhoea locally and globally.

  11. Oppositional Defiant Disorder: prevalence based on parent and teacher ratings of Malaysian primary school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Rapson; Hafetz, Nina; Gomez, Rashika Miranjani

    2013-08-01

    This study examined the prevalence rate of Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD) in Malaysian primary school children. In all 934 Malaysian parents and teachers completed ratings of their children using a scale comprising DSM-IV-TR ODD symptoms. Results showed rates of 3.10%, 3.85%, 7.49% and 0.64% for parent, teacher, parent or teacher ("or-rule"), and parent and teacher ("and-rule") ratings, respectively. When the functional impairment criterion was not considered, the rate reported by parents was higher at 13.28%. The theoretical, diagnostic and cultural implications of the findings are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimating prevalence of accumulated HIV-1 drug resistance in a cohort of patients on antiretroviral therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bannister, Wendy P; Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro; Kjær, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the prevalence of accumulated HIV drug resistance in patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult due to lack of resistance testing at all occasions of virological failure and in patients with undetectable viral load. A method to estimate this for 6498 EuroSIDA patients...... who were under follow-up on ART at 1 July 2008 was therefore developed by imputing data on patients with no prior resistance test results, based on the probability of detecting resistance in tested patients with similar profiles....

  13. Associations between presence of relevant information in referrals to radiology and prevalence rates in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedner, Charlotta; Sundgren, Pia C; Kelly, Aine Marie

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess if the presence of information including the pretest probability (Wells score), other known risk factors, and symptoms given on referrals for computed tomography (CT) pulmonary angiography correlated with prevalence rates for pulmonary embolism (PE). Also, to evaluate for differences between a university and a regional hospital setting regarding patient characteristics, amount of relevant information provided on referrals, and prevalence rates for pulmonary embolism. Retrospective review of all consecutive referrals (emergency room, inpatient, and outpatient) for CT performed on children and adults for suspected PE from two sites: a tertiary (university) hospital (site 1) and a secondary (regional) hospital (site 2) over a 5-year period. The overall prevalence rate was 510/3641 or 14% of all referrals. Significantly higher number of males had a positive CT compared to women (18% versus 12%, P relevant information on the referral and the probability for positive finding existed, a slight trend was noted (P = .09). In two categories, "hypoxia" and "signs of deep vein thrombosis," the presence of this information conferred a higher probability for pulmonary embolism, P information conferred a higher probability for pulmonary embolism. The amount of relevant clinical information on the request did not correlate with prevalence rates, which may reflect a lack of documentation on the part of emergency physicians who may use a "gestalt" approach. Request forms likely did not capture all relevant patient risks and many factors may interact with each other, both positively and negatively. Pretest probability estimations were rarely performed, despite their inclusion in major society guidelines. Copyright © 2013 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Potential Impact of DSM-5 Criteria on Autism Spectrum Disorder Prevalence Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maenner, Matthew J.; Rice, Catherine E.; Arneson, Carrie L.; Cunniff, Christopher; Schieve, Laura A.; Carpenter, Laura A.; Van Naarden Braun, Kim; Kirby, Russell S.; Bakian, Amanda V.; Durkin, Maureen S.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE The DSM-5 contains revised diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) from the DSM-IV-TR. Potential impacts of the new criteria on ASD prevalence are unclear. OBJECTIVE To assess potential effects of the DSM-5 ASD criteria on ASD prevalence estimation by retrospectively applying the new criteria to population-based surveillance data collected for previous ASD prevalence estimation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cross-sectional, population-based ASD surveillance based on clinician review of coded behaviors documented in children’s medical and educational evaluations from 14 geographically defined areas in the United States participating in the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network in 2006 and 2008. This study included 8-year-old children living in ADDM Network study areas in 2006 or 2008, including 644 883 children under surveillance, of whom 6577 met surveillance ASD case status based on the DSM-IV-TR. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Proportion of children meeting ADDM Network ASD criteria based on the DSM-IV-TR who also met DSM-5 criteria; overall prevalence of ASD using DSM-5 criteria. RESULTS Among the 6577 children classified by the ADDM Network as having ASD based on the DSM-IV-TR, 5339 (81.2%) met DSM-5 ASD criteria. This percentage was similar for boys and girls but higher for those with than without intellectual disability (86.6% and 72.5%, respectively; P DSM-5 ASD criteria but not current ADDM Network ASD case status. Based on these findings, ASD prevalence per 1000 for 2008 would have been 10.0 (95% CI, 9.6–10.3) using DSM-5 criteria compared with the reported prevalence based on DSM-IV-TR criteria of 11.3 (95% CI, 11.0–11.7). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates will likely be lower under DSM-5 than under DSM-IV-TR diagnostic criteria, although this effect could be tempered by future adaptation of diagnostic practices and documentation of behaviors to fit the new

  15. [Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

    2017-03-10

    To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

  16. Estimating the prevalence, hospitalisation and mortality from type 2 diabetes mellitus in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeloye, Davies; Ige, Janet O; Aderemi, Adewale V; Adeleye, Ngozi; Amoo, Emmanuel O; Auta, Asa; Oni, Gbolahan

    2017-05-11

    There is not yet a comprehensive evidence-based epidemiological report on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Nigeria. We aimed to estimate country-wide and zonal prevalence, hospitalisation and mortality rates of T2DM in Nigeria. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Africa Journals Online (AJOL) and Google Scholar for population and hospital-based studies on T2DM in Nigeria. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude estimates, and applied a meta-regression epidemiological model, using the United Nations demographics for Nigeria in 1990 and 2015 to determine estimates of diabetes in Nigeria for the two years. 42 studies, with a total population of 91 320, met our selection criteria. Most of the studies selected were of medium quality (90.5%). The age-adjusted prevalence rates of T2DM in Nigeria among persons aged 20-79 years increased from 2.0% (95% CI 1.9% to 2.1%) in 1990 to 5.7% (95% CI 5.5% to 5.8%) in 2015, accounting for over 874 000 and 4.7 million cases, respectively. The pooled prevalence rate of impaired glucose tolerance was 10.0% (95% CI 4.5% to 15.6%), while impaired fasting glucose was 5.8% (95% CI 3.8% to 7.8%). Hospital admission rate for T2DM was 222.6 (95% CI 133.1 to 312.1) per 100 000 population with hyperglycaemic emergencies, diabetic foot and cardiovascular diseases being most common complications. The overall mortality rate was 30.2 (95% CI 14.6 to 45.8) per 100 000 population, with a case fatality rate of 22.0% (95% CI 8.0% to 36.0%). Our findings suggest an increasing burden of T2DM in Nigeria with many persons currently undiagnosed, and few known cases on treatment. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Back pain in the working population: Prevalence rates in Dutch trades and professions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hildebrandt, V.H.

    1995-01-01

    An analysis of three health surveys in the Dutch working population is described, aimed at the identification of Dutch trades and professions with relative high and low prevalence rates of back pain. The sample was representative of the working population in the Netherlands and consisted of 5840 men

  18. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate; Laboratory Implementation and Current Global Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, W Greg; Jones, Graham R D

    2018-01-01

    In 2002, the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines for identifying and treating CKD recommended that clinical laboratories report estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with every creatinine result to assist clinical practitioners to identify people with early-stage CKD. At that time, the original Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation based on serum creatinine measurements was recommended for calculating eGFR. Because the MDRD Study equation was developed using a nonstandardized creatinine method, a Laboratory Working Group of the National Kidney Disease Education program was formed and implemented standardized calibration traceability for all creatinine methods from global manufacturers by approximately 2010. A modified MDRD Study equation for use with standardized creatinine was developed. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration developed a new equation in 2009 that was more accurate than the MDRD Study equation at values above 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . As of 2017, reporting eGFR with creatinine is almost universal in many countries. A reference system for cystatin C became available in 2010, and manufacturers are in the process to standardize cystatin C assays. Equations for eGFR based on standardized cystatin C alone and with creatinine are now available from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and other groups. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. Methods The first Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. Logistic regression was performed to identify the relationship between the prevalence of agricultural injuries and the general characteristics of the study population. Results We estimated that 3.2% (±0.00) of Korean farmers suffered agricultural injuries that required an absence of more than 4 days. The injury rates among orchard farmers (5.4 ± 0.00) were higher those of all non-orchard farmers. The odds ratio (OR) for agricultural injuries was significantly lower in females (OR: 0.45, 95% CI = 0.45–0.45) compared to males. However, the odds of injury among farmers aged 50–59 (OR: 1.53, 95% CI = 1.46–1.60), 60–69 (OR: 1.45, 95% CI = 1.39–1.51), and ≥70 (OR: 1.94, 95% CI = 1.86–2.02) were significantly higher compared to those younger than 50. In addition, the total number of years farmed, average number of months per year of farming, and average hours per day of farming were significantly associated with agricultural injuries. Conclusions Agricultural injury rates in this study were higher than rates reported by the existing compensation insurance data. Males and older farmers were at a greater risk of agriculture injuries; therefore, the prevention and management of agricultural injuries in this population is required. PMID:24808945

  20. Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers' Occupational Disease and Injury Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chae, Hyeseon; Min, Kyungdoo; Youn, Kanwoo; Park, Jinwoo; Kim, Kyungran; Kim, Hyocher; Lee, Kyungsuk

    2014-01-01

    This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. The first Korean Farmers' Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. Logistic regression was performed to identify the relationship between the prevalence of agricultural injuries and the general characteristics of the study population. We estimated that 3.2% (±0.00) of Korean farmers suffered agricultural injuries that required an absence of more than 4 days. The injury rates among orchard farmers (5.4 ± 0.00) were higher those of all non-orchard farmers. The odds ratio (OR) for agricultural injuries was significantly lower in females (OR: 0.45, 95% CI = 0.45-0.45) compared to males. However, the odds of injury among farmers aged 50-59 (OR: 1.53, 95% CI = 1.46-1.60), 60-69 (OR: 1.45, 95% CI = 1.39-1.51), and ≥70 (OR: 1.94, 95% CI = 1.86-2.02) were significantly higher compared to those younger than 50. In addition, the total number of years farmed, average number of months per year of farming, and average hours per day of farming were significantly associated with agricultural injuries. Agricultural injury rates in this study were higher than rates reported by the existing compensation insurance data. Males and older farmers were at a greater risk of agriculture injuries; therefore, the prevention and management of agricultural injuries in this population is required.

  1. Short report: entomologic inoculation rates and Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, J C; Killeen, G F; Githure, J I

    1999-07-01

    Epidemiologic patterns of malaria infection are governed by environmental parameters that regulate vector populations of Anopheles mosquitoes. The intensity of malaria parasite transmission is normally expressed as the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR), the product of the vector biting rate times the proportion of mosquitoes infected with sporozoite-stage malaria parasites. Malaria transmission intensity in Africa is highly variable with annual EIRs ranging from 1,000 infective bites per person per year. Malaria control programs often seek to reduce morbidity and mortality due to malaria by reducing or eliminating malaria parasite transmission by mosquitoes. This report evaluates data from 31 sites throughout Africa to establish fundamental relationships between annual EIRs and the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection. The majority of sites fitted a linear relationship (r2 = 0.71) between malaria prevalence and the logarithm of the annual EIR. Some sites with EIRs 80%. The basic relationship between EIR and P. falciparum prevalence, which likely holds in east and west Africa, and across different ecologic zones, shows convincingly that substantial reductions in malaria prevalence are likely to be achieved only when EIRs are reduced to levels less than 1 infective bite per person per year. The analysis also highlights that the EIR is a more direct measure of transmission intensity than traditional measures of malaria prevalence or hospital-based measures of infection or disease incidence. As such, malaria field programs need to consider both entomologic and clinical assessments of the efficacy of transmission control measures.

  2. Prevalence and incidence rates of autism in the UK: time trend from 2004–2010 in children aged 8 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Brent; Jick, Hershel; MacLaughlin, Dean

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To update UK studies begun in the early 1990s on the annual prevalence and incidence rates of autism in children; undertaken in response to a March 2012 press release, widely covered by the media, from the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) reporting that the autism prevalence rate in 2008 in 8-year-old US children was 1 in 88, a 78% increase from a CDC estimate in 2004. This finding suggested a continuation of the dramatic increase in children diagnosed as autistic, which occurred in the 1990s. Design Population study using the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Methods Annual autism prevalence rates were estimated for children aged 8 years in 2004–2010 by dividing the number diagnosed as autistic in each or any previous year by the number of children active in the study population that year. We also calculated annual incidence rates for children aged 2–8 years, by dividing the number newly diagnosed in 2004–2010 by the same denominators. Results Annual prevalence rates for each year were steady at approximately 3.8/1000 boys and 0.8/1000 girls. Annual incidence rates each year were also steady at about 1.2/1000 boys and 0.2/1000 girls. Conclusions Following a fivefold increase in the annual incidence rates of autism during the 1990s in the UK, the incidence and prevalence rates in 8-year-old children reached a plateau in the early 2000s and remained steady through 2010. Whether prevalence rates have increased from the early 2000s in the USA remains uncertain. PMID:24131525

  3. Prevalence, rates and correlates of intimate partner violence among South African women during pregnancy and the postpartum period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Allison K; Moodley, Dhayendre; McNaughton-Reyes, Luz; Martin, Sandra L; Foshee, Vangie; Maman, Suzanne

    2015-03-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem in South Africa. However, limited research exists on IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period in South Africa. The purpose of this study is to describe the prevalence, rates and correlates of IPV among South African women during pregnancy and the first 9 months postpartum. Data are from a longitudinal study with women recruited during pregnancy between 2008 and 2010 at a public clinic in Durban. We used a modified version of the World Health Organization's IPV scale to estimate prevalence and rates of IPV during pregnancy, at 4 months postpartum and 9 months postpartum and we used logistic regression to assess the correlates of IPV during this time. More than 20 % of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during pregnancy. Nearly one-quarter of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during the first 9 months postpartum. Psychological IPV was the most prevalent type of IPV during pregnancy and the first 4 months postpartum. Age and previous violence within the relationship were associated with IPV during pregnancy and IPV during the postpartum period. The high levels of IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period highlight the need to develop screening and intervention strategies specifically for this time. Further, women should be screened not only for physical violence but also psychological violence given that psychological violence may result in distinct negative consequences.

  4. Prevalence and rates of intimate partner violence among South African women during pregnancy and the postpartum period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Allison K.; Moodley, Dhayendre; McNaughton-Reyes, Luz; Martin, Sandra L.; Foshee, Vangie; Maman, Suzanne

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem in South Africa. However, limited research exists on IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period in South Africa. The purpose of this study is to describe the prevalence, rates and correlates of IPV among South African women during pregnancy and the first nine months postpartum. Methods Data are from a longitudinal study with women recruited during pregnancy between 2008 and 2010 at a public clinic in Durban. We used a modified version of the World Health Organization’s IPV scale to estimate prevalence and rates of IPV during pregnancy, at four months postpartum and nine months postpartum and we used logistic regression to assess the correlates of IPV during this time. Results More than 20% of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during pregnancy. Nearly one-quarter of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during the first nine months postpartum. Psychological IPV was the most prevalent type of IPV during pregnancy and the first four months postpartum. Age and previous violence within the relationship were associated with IPV during pregnancy and IPV during the postpartum period. Conclusions The high levels of IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period highlight the need to develop screening and intervention strategies specifically for this time. Further, women should be screened not only for physical violence but also psychological violence given that psychological violence may result in distinct negative consequences. PMID:24889116

  5. The Dynamics of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Prevalence and Management Rates among Rural Population in Henan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaotian Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to estimate the dynamics of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM prevalence and management rates based on a rural cohort study in Henan Province of China. The rural prospective study was conducted for 20194 Chinese population ≥18 years in 2007-2008 and followed during 2013-2014. A total of 14009 individuals were recruited for the prospective analysis ultimately. Over 5.74 years of follow-up, the age-standardized prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of T2DM increased from 6.18%, 44.41%, 34.39%, and 19.08% at baseline to 7.87%, 59.64%, 52.17%, and 26.52% at follow-up in total population, respectively. Similar changes were found in men and women except the age-standardized control in men. The four parameters of T2DM were higher among various factors at follow-up than those at baseline. There was no statistical difference in awareness (P=0.089 and treatment (P=0.257 in the newly diagnosed T2DM compared with the rates at baseline. The current study indicated that the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of T2DM displayed chronological increasing trends while the awareness, treatment, and control of T2DM were still disproportionally low in central China. More works are needed urgently to popularize public health education and improve the quality of medical care in T2DM.

  6. Estimating the effects of Exchange and Interest Rates on Stock ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The monthly closing returns of All-share index, exchange rates and interest rates ... The interest rate also showed a negative relationship but insignificant at the ... is a prerequisite for attracting investments especially foreign direct investment.

  7. Constraints to estimating the prevalence of trypanosome infections in East African zebu cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cox Andrew P

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In East Africa, animal trypanosomiasis is caused by many tsetse transmitted protozoan parasites including Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and subspecies of T. brucei s.l. (T. b. brucei and zoonotic human infective T. b. rhodesiense that may co-circulate in domestic and wild animals. Accurate species-specific prevalence measurements of these parasites in animal populations are complicated by mixed infections of trypanosomes within individual hosts, low parasite densities and difficulties in conducting field studies. Many Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR based diagnostic tools are available to characterise and quantify infection in animals. These are important for assessing the contribution of infections in animal reservoirs and the risk posed to humans from zoonotic trypanosome species. New matrices for DNA capture have simplified large scale field PCR analyses but few studies have examined the impact of these techniques on prevalence estimations. Results The Whatman FTA matrix has been evaluated using a random sample of 35 village zebu cattle from a population naturally exposed to trypanosome infection. Using a generic trypanosome-specific PCR, prevalence was systematically evaluated. Multiple PCR samples taken from single FTA cards demonstrated that a single punch from an FTA card is not sufficient to confirm the infectivity status of an individual animal as parasite DNA is unevenly distributed across the card. At low parasite densities in the host, this stochastic sampling effect results in underestimation of prevalence based on single punch PCR testing. Repeated testing increased the estimated prevalence of all Trypanosoma spp. from 9.7% to 86%. Using repeat testing, a very high prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes was detected in these local village cattle: T. brucei (34.3%, T. congolense (42.9% and T. vivax (22.9%. Conclusions These results show that, despite the convenience of Whatman FTA cards and specific PCR based

  8. Constraints to estimating the prevalence of trypanosome infections in East African zebu cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Andrew P; Tosas, Olga; Tilley, Aimee; Picozzi, Kim; Coleman, Paul; Hide, Geoff; Welburn, Susan C

    2010-09-06

    In East Africa, animal trypanosomiasis is caused by many tsetse transmitted protozoan parasites including Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and subspecies of T. brucei s.l. (T. b. brucei and zoonotic human infective T. b. rhodesiense) that may co-circulate in domestic and wild animals. Accurate species-specific prevalence measurements of these parasites in animal populations are complicated by mixed infections of trypanosomes within individual hosts, low parasite densities and difficulties in conducting field studies. Many Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based diagnostic tools are available to characterise and quantify infection in animals. These are important for assessing the contribution of infections in animal reservoirs and the risk posed to humans from zoonotic trypanosome species. New matrices for DNA capture have simplified large scale field PCR analyses but few studies have examined the impact of these techniques on prevalence estimations. The Whatman FTA matrix has been evaluated using a random sample of 35 village zebu cattle from a population naturally exposed to trypanosome infection. Using a generic trypanosome-specific PCR, prevalence was systematically evaluated. Multiple PCR samples taken from single FTA cards demonstrated that a single punch from an FTA card is not sufficient to confirm the infectivity status of an individual animal as parasite DNA is unevenly distributed across the card. At low parasite densities in the host, this stochastic sampling effect results in underestimation of prevalence based on single punch PCR testing. Repeated testing increased the estimated prevalence of all Trypanosoma spp. from 9.7% to 86%. Using repeat testing, a very high prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes was detected in these local village cattle: T. brucei (34.3%), T. congolense (42.9%) and T. vivax (22.9%). These results show that, despite the convenience of Whatman FTA cards and specific PCR based detection tools, the chronically low parasitaemias in

  9. Prevalence rate and dentoskeletal features associated with buccally displaced maxillary canines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mucedero, Manuela; Ricchiuti, Maria Rosaria; Cozza, Paola; Baccetti, Tiziano

    2013-06-01

    The aim of the study was to analyse the prevalence and distribution of buccally displaced canines (BDCs) in subjects scheduled for orthodontic treatment and to investigate the association between BDC and sagittal, vertical, and transverse dentoskeletal relationships. A study sample of 1852 subjects was examined, and it was divided randomly into two groups. A first group of 252 subjects served as control group: the 'reference' prevalence rates for the examined parameters were calculated in this group. The remaining 1600 subjects comprised the sample from which the experimental BDC group was derived. Presence of unilateral or bilateral maxillary BDC, ANB, and SN GOGn angles for sagittal and vertical skeletal relationships, intercanine and intermolar distances, and tooth crowding at the maxillary arch were recorded for each subject. The statistical significance of differences between the BDC and the control groups in transverse relations and tooth crowding at the upper arch was tested by means of independent sample t-tests. Chi-square tests were performed to compare the prevalence rates of BDC and also sagittal and vertical skeletal features in the two groups. The prevalence rate of BDC was 3.06 per cent with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1. BDC subjects exhibited a significant association with hyperdivergent skeletal relationships (38.8%), reduced maxillary intercanine width, and crowding in the upper arch. The presence of specific dentoskeletal characteristics can be considered as a risk indicator for developing a buccal displacement of upper permanent canines.

  10. Body dysmorphic disorder in different settings: A systematic review and estimated weighted prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veale, David; Gledhill, Lucinda J; Christodoulou, Polyxeni; Hodsoll, John

    2016-09-01

    Our aim was to systematically review the prevalence of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in a variety of settings. Weighted prevalence estimate and 95% confidence intervals in each study were calculated. The weighted prevalence of BDD in adults in the community was estimated to be 1.9%; in adolescents 2.2%; in student populations 3.3%; in adult psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adolescent psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adult psychiatric outpatients 5.8%; in general cosmetic surgery 13.2%; in rhinoplasty surgery 20.1%; in orthognathic surgery 11.2%; in orthodontics/cosmetic dentistry settings 5.2%; in dermatology outpatients 11.3%; in cosmetic dermatology outpatients 9.2%; and in acne dermatology clinics 11.1%. Women outnumbered men in the majority of settings but not in cosmetic or dermatological settings. BDD is common in some psychiatric and cosmetic settings but is poorly identified. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Standardizing estimates of the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith David L

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR is a commonly reported index of malaria transmission intensity. PfPR rises after birth to a plateau before declining in older children and adults. Studies of populations with different age ranges generally report average PfPR, so age is an important source of heterogeneity in reported PfPR data. This confounds simple comparisons of PfPR surveys conducted at different times or places. Methods Several algorithms for standardizing PfPR were developed using 21 studies that stratify in detail PfPR by age. An additional 121 studies were found that recorded PfPR from the same population over at least two different age ranges; these paired estimates were used to evaluate these algorithms. The best algorithm was judged to be the one that described most of the variance when converting the PfPR pairs from one age-range to another. Results The analysis suggests that the relationship between PfPR and age is predictable across the observed range of malaria endemicity. PfPR reaches a peak after about two years and remains fairly constant in older children until age ten before declining throughout adolescence and adulthood. The PfPR pairs were poorly correlated; using one to predict the other would explain only 5% of the total variance. By contrast, the PfPR predicted by the best algorithm explained 72% of the variance. Conclusion The PfPR in older children is useful for standardization because it has good biological, epidemiological and statistical properties. It is also historically consistent with the classical categories of hypoendemic, mesoendemic and hyperendemic malaria. This algorithm provides a reliable method for standardizing PfPR for the purposes of comparing studies and mapping malaria endemicity. The scripts for doing so are freely available to all.

  12. Estimating the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake from national food balance sheets: effects of methodological assumptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Ryan Wessells

    Full Text Available The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population's theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1 evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2 generate a model considered to provide the best estimates.National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation. Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12-66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57-0.99, P<0.01. A "best-estimate" model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%.Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem in different countries can be drawn based on the country

  13. [Overweight and obesity prevalence estimates in a population from Zaragoza by using different growth references].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasarte-Velillas, J J; Hernández-Aguilar, M T; Martínez-Boyero, T; Soria-Cabeza, G; Soria-Ruiz, D; Bastarós-García, J C; Gil-Hernández, I; Pastor-Arilla, C; Lasarte-Sanz, I

    2015-03-01

    To investigate the prevalence of overweight and obesity among our pediatric population and observe whether the use of different growth references for classification produce significant differences. A total of 35824 boys and girls aged between 2 and 14 years were included. Body mass index (BMI) was used to calculate the prevalence of overweight-obesity by age and sex. Prevalence was obtained by using a set of national references (Hernández's standards) and the references of World Health Organization (WHO standards). Prevalences were compared for each age and sex subset, as well as with the percentage of patients who had an overweight-obesity diagnosis in the clinical record. The overall prevalence of overweight-obesity among children aged 2 to 14 years was 17.0% (95% CI; 16.1%-18.0%) according to the Hernández standards vs 30.8% (95% CI; 29.9%-31.7%) according to WHO standards (10.1% vs 12.2% obese, and 6.9% vs 18.6% overweight). It was significantly higher in boys, by both standards, due to the higher prevalence of obesity. By using the Hernández standards the prevalence was significantly lower than by using WHO standards for all ages and for both sexes. A low percentage of patients were found to have an obesity-overweight diagnosis in the clinical record (from 3% to 22% at the ages of 2 and 14 years, respectively). The prevalence of overweight-obesity in our population is high, especially among boys. Using Hernández standards leads to an under-estimation of the problem, especially because it detects less overweight patients, thus we recommend using the WHO standards in our daily practice. The low number of overweight-obesity diagnoses in the clinical records might reflect that there is little awareness of the problem by the professionals. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. Field Programmable Gate Array Failure Rate Estimation Guidelines for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Hassan, Mohammad; Novack, Steven D.; Hatfield, Glen S.; Britton, Paul

    2017-01-01

    Today's launch vehicles complex electronic and avionic systems heavily utilize the Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) integrated circuit (IC). FPGAs are prevalent ICs in communication protocols such as MIL-STD-1553B, and in control signal commands such as in solenoid/servo valves actuations. This paper will demonstrate guidelines to estimate FPGA failure rates for a launch vehicle, the guidelines will account for hardware, firmware, and radiation induced failures. The hardware contribution of the approach accounts for physical failures of the IC, FPGA memory and clock. The firmware portion will provide guidelines on the high level FPGA programming language and ways to account for software/code reliability growth. The radiation portion will provide guidelines on environment susceptibility as well as guidelines on tailoring other launch vehicle programs historical data to a specific launch vehicle.

  15. Estimating disability prevalence among adults by body mass index: 2003-2009 National Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Brian S; Courtney-Long, Elizabeth; Campbell, Vincent A; Wethington, Holly R

    2012-01-01

    Obesity is associated with adverse health outcomes in people with and without disabilities; however, little is known about disability prevalence among people who are obese. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and type of disability among obese adults in the United States. We analyzed pooled data from sample adult modules of the 2003-2009 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to obtain national prevalence estimates of disability, disability type, and obesity by using 30 questions that screened for activity limitations, vision and hearing impairment, and cognitive, movement, and emotional difficulties. We stratified disability prevalence by category of body mass index (BMI, measured as kg/m(2)): underweight, less than 18.5; normal weight, 18.5 to 24.9; overweight, 25.0 to 29.9; and obese, 30.0 or higher. Among the 25.3% of adult men and 24.6% of women in our pooled sample who were obese, 35.2% and 46.9%, respectively, reported a disability. In contrast, 26.7% of men and 26.8% women of normal weight reported a disability. Disability was much higher among obese women than among obese men (46.9% vs 35.2%, P < .001). Movement difficulties were the most common disabilities among obese men and women, affecting 25.3% of men and 37.9% of women. This research contributes to the literature on obesity by including disability as a demographic in characterizing people by body mass index. Because of the high prevalence of disability among those who are obese, public health programs should consider the needs of those with disabilities when designing obesity prevention and treatment programs.

  16. Prevalence, Treatment, and Control Rates of Conventional and Ambulatory Hypertension Across 10 Populations in 3 Continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melgarejo, Jesus D; Maestre, Gladys E; Thijs, Lutgarde; Asayama, Kei; Boggia, José; Casiglia, Edoardo; Hansen, Tine W; Imai, Yutaka; Jacobs, Lotte; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Li, Yan; Malyutina, Sofia; Nikitin, Yuri; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Wang, Ji-Guang; Staessen, Jan A

    2017-07-01

    Hypertension is a major global health problem, but prevalence rates vary widely among regions. To determine prevalence, treatment, and control rates of hypertension, we measured conventional blood pressure (BP) and 24-hour ambulatory BP in 6546 subjects, aged 40 to 79 years, recruited from 10 community-dwelling cohorts on 3 continents. We determined how between-cohort differences in risk factors and socioeconomic factors influence hypertension rates. The overall prevalence was 49.3% (range between cohorts, 40.0%-86.8%) for conventional hypertension (conventional BP ≥140/90 mm Hg) and 48.7% (35.2%-66.5%) for ambulatory hypertension (ambulatory BP ≥130/80 mm Hg). Treatment and control rates for conventional hypertension were 48.0% (33.5%-74.1%) and 38.6% (10.1%-55.3%) respectively. The corresponding rates for ambulatory hypertension were 48.6% (30.5%-71.9%) and 45.6% (18.6%-64.2%). Among 1677 untreated subjects with conventional hypertension, 35.7% had white coat hypertension (23.5%-56.2%). Masked hypertension (conventional BP hypertension rates. Higher social and economic development, measured by the Human Development Index, was associated with lower rates of conventional and ambulatory hypertension. In conclusion, high rates of hypertension in all cohorts examined demonstrate the need for improvements in prevention, treatment, and control. Strategies for the management of hypertension should continue to not only focus on preventable and modifiable risk factors but also consider societal issues. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Prevalence rates and epidemiological risk factors for astigmatism in Singapore school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Louis; Saw, Seang-Mei; Carkeet, Andrew; Chan, Wai-Ying; Wu, Hui-Min; Tan, Donald

    2002-09-01

    This study examined the prevalence rate of astigmatism and its epidemiological risk factors in Singapore school children. In a study of school children aged 7 to 9 years old in two schools in Singapore in 1999, a detailed questionnaire was administered to parents regarding reading or close-work habits, past history of close-work, family history, and socioeconomic factors. Cycloplegic refraction was performed five times in each eye. Defining astigmatism as worse than or equal to 0.5, 0.75, and 1 D cylinder in the right eye, the prevalence of astigmatism was calculated. The study population consisted of 1028 children. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (worse than or equal to 1 D cylinder) was 19.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.8 to 21.6). This was not different between genders, ethnic groups, or age (p > 0.05). With-the-rule astigmatism was more common than against-the-rule astigmatism. The prevalence of astigmatism and myopia was 9.8% (95% confidence interval, 8.0 to 11.6). A high AC/A ratio was associated (p = 0.003) with astigmatism, even after exclusion of myopic children. On vectorial analysis, J0 and J45 were associated with the number of hours of playing video games, whereas J45 was also associated with computer use. Only J45 was associated to male gender, a high AC/A ratio, and a family history of myopia. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was 19%. Playing video games and computer use may be associated with astigmatism severity, although the presence of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was not associated with any nearwork factors. A family history of myopia was associated with oblique astigmatism severity. A high AC/A ratio is associated with astigmatism, and this requires further investigation.

  18. Prevalent Rate of Nonalbuminuric Renal Insufficiency and Its Association with Cardiovascular Disease Event in Korean Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hye Won Lee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundNonalbuminuric renal insufficiency is a unique category of diabetic kidney diseases. The objectives of the study were to evaluate prevalent rate of nonalbuminuric renal insufficiency and to investigate its relationship with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD event in Korean patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM.MethodsLaboratory and clinical data of 1,067 subjects with T2DM were obtained and reviewed. Study subjects were allocated into four subgroups according to the CKD classification. Major CVD events were included with coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular events.ResultsNonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group, when compared with albuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group, had shorter diabetic duration, lower concentrations of glycated hemoglobin, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, lower prevalent rates of retinopathy and previous CVD, and higher rate of treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers. Nonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group showed a greater association with prior CVD events than no CKD group; however, albuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group made addition to increase prevalence of prior CVD events significantly when CKD categories were applied as covariates. Association of prior CVD events, when compared with normal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR and nonalbuminuria categories, became significant for declined eGFR, which was higher for eGFR of <30 mL/min/1.73 m2, and albuminuria.ConclusionThe results show that subjects with nonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD is significantly interrelated with occurrence of prior CVD events than those with normal eGFR with or without albuminuria. Comparing with normal eGFR and nonalbuminuria categories, the combination of increased degree of albuminuria and declined eGFR is becoming significant for the association of prior CVD events.

  19. Estimating family planning coverage from contraceptive prevalence using national household surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Aluisio J D; Boerma, Ties; Hosseinpoor, Ahmad R; Restrepo-Méndez, María C; Wong, Kerry L M; Victora, Cesar G

    2015-01-01

    Contraception is one of the most important health interventions currently available and yet, many women and couples still do not have reliable access to modern contraceptives. The best indicator for monitoring family planning is the proportion of women using contraception among those who need it. This indicator is frequently called demand for family planning satisfied and we argue that it should be called family planning coverage (FPC). This indicator is complex to calculate and requires a considerable number of questions to be included in a household survey. We propose a model that can predict FPC from a much simpler indicator - contraceptive use prevalence - for situations where it cannot be derived directly. Using 197 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys from 82 countries, we explored least-squares regression models that could be used to predict FPC. Non-linearity was expected in this situation and we used a fractional polynomial approach to find the best fitting model. We also explored the effect of calendar time and of wealth on the models explored. Given the high correlation between the variables involved in FPC, we managed to derive a relatively simple model that depends only on contraceptive use prevalence but explains 95% of the variability of the outcome, with high precision for the estimated regression line. We also show that the relationship between the two variables has not changed with time. A concordance analysis showed agreement between observed and fitted results within a range of ±9 percentage points. We show that it is possible to obtain fairly good estimates of FPC using only contraceptive prevalence as a predictor, a strategy that is useful in situations where it is not possible to estimate FPC directly.

  20. Validation of estimated glomerular filtration rate equations for Japanese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotoh, Yoshimitsu; Uemura, Osamu; Ishikura, Kenji; Sakai, Tomoyuki; Hamasaki, Yuko; Araki, Yoshinori; Hamda, Riku; Honda, Masataka

    2018-01-25

    The gold standard for evaluation of kidney function is renal inulin clearance (Cin). However, the methodology for Cin is complicated and difficult, especially for younger children and/or patients with bladder dysfunction. Therefore, we developed a simple and easier method for obtaining the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using equations and values for several biomarkers, i.e., serum creatinine (Cr), serum cystatin C (cystC), serum beta-2 microglobulin (β 2 MG), and creatinine clearance (Ccr). The purpose of the present study was to validate these equations with a new data set. To validate each equation, we used data of 140 patients with CKD with clinical need for Cin, using the measured GFR (mGFR). We compared the results for each eGFR equation with the mGFR using mean error (ME), root mean square error (RMSE), P 30 , and Bland-Altman analysis. The ME of Cr, cystC, β 2 MG, and Ccr based on eGFR was 15.8 ± 13.0, 17.2 ± 16.5, 15.4 ± 14.3, and 10.6 ± 13.0 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively. The RMSE was 29.5, 23.8, 20.9, and 16.7, respectively. The P 30 was 79.4, 71.1, 69.5, and 92.9%, respectively. The Bland-Altman bias analysis showed values of 4.0 ± 18.6, 5.3 ± 16.8, 12.7 ± 17.0, and 2.5 ± 17.2 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively, for these parameters. The bias of each eGFR equation was not large. Therefore, each eGFR equation could be used.

  1. Estimating the prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection among rural communities in Western Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakuza, Jared S.; Denwood, Matthew J.; Nkwengulila, Gamba

    2017-01-01

    with sex or age. Conclusions/Significance Overall, our data suggest a more widespread distribution of S. mansoni in this part of Tanzania than was previously thought. The apparent prevalence estimates substantially under-estimated the true prevalence as determined by the ZINB models, and the two types......) models with explanatory variables of site, sex, and age. The ZINB models indicated that a substantial proportion of the observed zero FWEC reflected a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals, meaning that the estimated true prevalence was much higher than the apparent prevalence...... of sampling strategies also resulted in differing conclusions regarding prevalence of infection. We therefore recommend that future surveillance programmes designed to assess risk factors should use active sampling whenever possible, in order to avoid the self-selection bias associated with passive sampling....

  2. Tissue strain rate estimator using ultrafast IQ complex data

    OpenAIRE

    TERNIFI , Redouane; Elkateb Hachemi , Melouka; Remenieras , Jean-Pierre

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Pulsatile motion of brain parenchyma results from cardiac and breathing cycles. In this study, transient motion of brain tissue was estimated using an Aixplorer® imaging system allowing an ultrafast 2D acquisition mode. The strain was computed directly from the ultrafast IQ complex data using the extended autocorrelation strain estimator (EASE), which provides great SNRs regardless of depth. The EASE first evaluates the autocorrelation function at each depth over a set...

  3. Adult current smoking: differences in definitions and prevalence estimates--NHIS and NSDUH, 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Heather; Trosclair, Angela; Gfroerer, Joe

    2012-01-01

    To compare prevalence estimates and assess issues related to the measurement of adult cigarette smoking in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). 2008 data on current cigarette smoking and current daily cigarette smoking among adults ≥18 years were compared. The standard NHIS current smoking definition, which screens for lifetime smoking ≥100 cigarettes, was used. For NSDUH, both the standard current smoking definition, which does not screen, and a modified definition applying the NHIS current smoking definition (i.e., with screen) were used. NSDUH consistently yielded higher current cigarette smoking estimates than NHIS and lower daily smoking estimates. However, with use of the modified NSDUH current smoking definition, a notable number of subpopulation estimates became comparable between surveys. Younger adults and racial/ethnic minorities were most impacted by the lifetime smoking screen, with Hispanics being the most sensitive to differences in smoking variable definitions among all subgroups. Differences in current cigarette smoking definitions appear to have a greater impact on smoking estimates in some sub-populations than others. Survey mode differences may also limit intersurvey comparisons and trend analyses. Investigators are cautioned to use data most appropriate for their specific research questions.

  4. National HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates are associated with the Human Development Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Li-Xia; Chen, Yi; Yu, Chao-Hui; Li, You-Ming; Ye, Juan

    2014-10-01

    HIV/AIDS is a worldwide threat to human health with mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates varying widely. We evaluated the association between the global HIV/AIDS epidemic and national socioeconomic development. We obtained global age-standardized HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates from World Health Statistics Report of the World Health Organization. The human development indexes (HDIs) of 141 countries were obtained from a Human Development Report. Countries were divided into 4 groups according to the HDI distribution. We explored the association between HIV/AIDS epidemic and HDI information using Spearman correlation analysis, regression analysis, and the Kruskal-Wallis test. HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates were inversely correlated with national HDI (r = -0.675, -0.519, and -0.398, respectively; P birth, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and gross national income per capita). Low HDI countries had higher HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates than that of medium, high, and very high HDI countries. Quantile regression results indicated that HDI had a greater negative effect on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in countries with more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. Less-developed countries are likely to have more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. There is a need to pay more attention to HIV/AIDS control in less-developed countries, where lower socioeconomic status might have accelerated the HIV/AIDS epidemic more rapidly. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Prevalence Estimation and Validation of New Instruments in Psychiatric Research: An Application of Latent Class Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pence, Brian Wells; Miller, William C.; Gaynes, Bradley N.

    2009-01-01

    Prevalence and validation studies rely on imperfect reference standard (RS) diagnostic instruments that can bias prevalence and test characteristic estimates. The authors illustrate 2 methods to account for RS misclassification. Latent class analysis (LCA) combines information from multiple imperfect measures of an unmeasurable latent condition to…

  6. National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Daniel R; Salomon, Joshua A; Canning, David; Hammitt, James K; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Bärnighausen, Till

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Population-based HIV testing surveys have become central to deriving estimates of national HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited participation in these surveys can lead to selection bias. We control for selection bias in national HIV prevalence estimates using a novel approach, which unlike conventional imputation can account for selection on unobserved factors. Methods For 12 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted from 2001 to 2009 (N=138 300), we predict HIV status among those missing a valid HIV test with Heckman-type selection models, which allow for correlation between infection status and participation in survey HIV testing. We compare these estimates with conventional ones and introduce a simulation procedure that incorporates regression model parameter uncertainty into confidence intervals. Results Selection model point estimates of national HIV prevalence were greater than unadjusted estimates for 10 of 12 surveys for men and 11 of 12 surveys for women, and were also greater than the majority of estimates obtained from conventional imputation, with significantly higher HIV prevalence estimates for men in Cote d'Ivoire 2005, Mali 2006 and Zambia 2007. Accounting for selective non-participation yielded 95% confidence intervals around HIV prevalence estimates that are wider than those obtained with conventional imputation by an average factor of 4.5. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that national HIV prevalence estimates for many countries in sub-Saharan African are more uncertain than previously thought, and may be underestimated in several cases, underscoring the need for increasing participation in HIV surveys. Heckman-type selection models should be included in the set of tools used for routine estimation of HIV prevalence. PMID:23172342

  7. Estimation of HPV prevalence in young women in Scotland; monitoring of future vaccine impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, Kimberley; Sinka, Katy; Cuschieri, Kate; Love, John; Potts, Alison; Pollock, Kevin G J; Cubie, Heather; Donaghy, Martin; Robertson, Chris

    2013-11-05

    Estimation of pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV and distribution of HPV types is fundamental to understanding the subsequent impact of HPV vaccination. We describe the type specific prevalence of HPV in females aged 20-21 in Scotland who attended or defaulted from cervical screening using three specimen types; from attenders liquid based cytology and from defaulters urine or self-taken swabs. Residual liquid based cytology samples (n = 2148), collected from women aged 20-21 attending for their first smear were genotyped for HPV. A sample (n = 709) from women who had defaulted from screening was also made available for HPV testing through the use of postal testing kits (either urine samples (n = 378) or self-taken swabs (n = 331)). Estimates of prevalence weighted by deprivation, and for the postal testing kit, also by reminder status and specimen type were calculated for each HPV type. The distribution of HPV types were compared between specimen types and the occurrence of multiple high-risk infections examined. The influence of demographic factors on high-risk HPV positivity and multiple infections was examined via logistic regression. The prevalence of any HPV in young women aged 20-21 was 32.2% for urine, 39.5% for self-taken swab, and 49.4% for LBC specimens. Infection with vaccine specific types (HPV 16, 18) or those associated with cross-protection (HPV 31, 33, 45, 51) was common. Individuals were more likely to test positive for high-risk HPV if they resided in an area of high deprivation or in a rural area. The overall distribution of HPV types did not vary between defaulters and attenders. Multiple infections occurred in 48.1% of high-risk HPV positive individuals. Excluding vaccine types the most common pairing was HPV 56 and 66. Understanding of the pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV in young women puts Scotland in a prime position to assess the early effect of vaccination as the first highly vaccinated cohorts of individuals enter the screening

  8. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models sti...

  9. Simplification of an MCNP model designed for dose rate estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laptev, Alexander; Perry, Robert

    2017-09-01

    A study was made to investigate the methods of building a simplified MCNP model for radiological dose estimation. The research was done using an example of a complicated glovebox with extra shielding. The paper presents several different calculations for neutron and photon dose evaluations where glovebox elements were consecutively excluded from the MCNP model. The analysis indicated that to obtain a fast and reasonable estimation of dose, the model should be realistic in details that are close to the tally. Other details may be omitted.

  10. Simplification of an MCNP model designed for dose rate estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laptev Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A study was made to investigate the methods of building a simplified MCNP model for radiological dose estimation. The research was done using an example of a complicated glovebox with extra shielding. The paper presents several different calculations for neutron and photon dose evaluations where glovebox elements were consecutively excluded from the MCNP model. The analysis indicated that to obtain a fast and reasonable estimation of dose, the model should be realistic in details that are close to the tally. Other details may be omitted.

  11. Dengue virus serological prevalence and seroconversion rates in children and adults in Medellin, Colombia: implications for vaccine introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline Kyungah; Velez, Diana Carolina; Trujillo, Andrea; Egurrola, Jorge; Lee, Kang Sung; Kaufman, Jay S; DaSilva, Luiz Jacinto; Velez, Ivan Dario; Osorio, Jorge E

    2017-05-01

    Dengue is an important public health problem worldwide. A vaccine has recently been licensed in some countries of Latin America and Asia. Recommendations for dengue vaccine introduction include endemicity and a high serological prevalence of dengue in the territories considering its introduction. A community-based survey was conducted to estimate dengue seroprevalence and age-specific seroconversion rates in a community in Medellin, Colombia, using a dengue serological test (IgG indirect ELISA). Residents were selected at random and were first screened for dengue infection; they were then followed over 2.5 years. A total of 3684 individuals aged between 1 and 65 years participated in at least one survey. The overall dengue seroprevalence was 61%, and only 3.3% of seropositive subjects self-reported a past history of dengue. Among dengue virus (DENV)-naïve subjects with more than two visits (n=1002), the overall seroconversion rate was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 7.3-10.4) per 1000 person-months, over the study period. Overall, the mean age of DENV prevalent subjects was significantly higher than the mean age of seroconverted subjects. Specifically, DENV seropositivity over 70% was observed in participants over 21 years old. Serotype-specific plaque-reduction neutralization tests (PRNT) revealed that all four dengue serotypes were circulating, with DENV4 being most prevalent. These laboratory-based findings could inform dengue vaccine decisions, as they provide age-specific seroprevalence and seroconversion data, evidencing permanent and ongoing dengue transmission in the study area. This study provides evidence for the existing rates of secondary and heterotypic responses, presenting a challenge that must be addressed adequately by the new vaccine candidates. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Elite athletes' estimates of the prevalence of illicit drug use: evidence for the false consensus effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Matthew; Thomas, Johanna O; Swift, Wendy; Burns, Lucinda

    2012-01-01

    The false consensus effect (FCE) is the tendency for people to assume that others share their attitudes and behaviours to a greater extent than they actually do. The FCE has been demonstrated for a range of health behaviours, including substance use. The study aimed to explore the relationship between elite athlete's engagement in recreational drug use and their consensus estimates (the FCE) and to determine whether those who engage in the behaviour overestimate the use of others around them. The FCE was investigated among 974 elite Australian athletes who were classified according to their drug use history. Participants tended to report that there was a higher prevalence of drug use among athletes in general compared with athletes in their sport, and these estimates appeared to be influenced by participants' drug use history. While overestimation of drug use by participants was not common, this overestimation also appeared to be influenced by athletes' drug use history. The results suggest that athletes who have a history of illicit drug use overestimate the prevalence of drug use among athletes. These findings may be helpful in the formulation of normative education initiatives. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  13. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Wenping [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Luo, Yiqi [Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Li, Xianglan [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Synthesis Research Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zhou, Tao [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Bahn, Michael [Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Black, Andy [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B. C., Canada; Desai, Ankur R. [Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Cescatti, Alessandro [Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Marcolla, Barbara [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Jacobs, Cor [Alterra, Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Chen, Jiquan [Department of Earth, Ecological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio, USA; Aurela, Mika [Climate and Global Change Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Bernhofer, Christian [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Gielen, Bert [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Bohrer, Gil [Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA; Cook, David R. [Climate Research Section, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA; Dragoni, Danilo [Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Dunn, Allison L. [Department of Physical and Earth Sciences, Worcester State College, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA; Gianelle, Damiano [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Grünwald, Thomas [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Ibrom, Andreas [Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Biosystems Division, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA; Lindroth, Anders [Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Liu, Heping [Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA; Marchesini, Luca Belelli [Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; Montagnani, Leonardo; Pita, Gabriel [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal; Rodeghiero, Mirco [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Rodrigues, Abel [Unidade de Silvicultura e Produtos Florestais, Instituto Nacional dos Recursos Biológicos, Oeiras, Portugal; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Stoy, Paul C. [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA

    2011-10-13

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual

  14. A Continuation of the Paradigm Wars? Prevalence Rates of Methodological Approaches across the Social/Behavioral Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alise, Mark A.; Teddlie, Charles

    2010-01-01

    A new line of research has emerged that examines the prevalence rates of mixed methods within disciplines in the social/behavioral sciences. Research presented in this article is unique in that it examines prevalence rates across multiple disciplines using an established cross-disciplinary classification scheme. Results indicate that there are…

  15. Estimation of Cessation Rates among Danish Users of Benzodiazepines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støvring, Henrik; Gasse, Christiane

    Background: Widespread and longterm use of benzodiazepines constitute a public health problem. Health care authorities hence advice that use should not exceed three months, in particular for the elderly and patients with a past diagnosis of drug addiction. Objectives: Estimate the shape...

  16. Bayesian nonparametric estimation of hazard rate in monotone Aalen model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Timková, Jana

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 6 (2014), s. 849-868 ISSN 0023-5954 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Aalen model * Bayesian estimation * MCMC Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/SI/timkova-0438210.pdf

  17. Using genetic data to estimate diffusion rates in heterogeneous landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roques, L; Walker, E; Franck, P; Soubeyrand, S; Klein, E K

    2016-08-01

    Having a precise knowledge of the dispersal ability of a population in a heterogeneous environment is of critical importance in agroecology and conservation biology as it can provide management tools to limit the effects of pests or to increase the survival of endangered species. In this paper, we propose a mechanistic-statistical method to estimate space-dependent diffusion parameters of spatially-explicit models based on stochastic differential equations, using genetic data. Dividing the total population into subpopulations corresponding to different habitat patches with known allele frequencies, the expected proportions of individuals from each subpopulation at each position is computed by solving a system of reaction-diffusion equations. Modelling the capture and genotyping of the individuals with a statistical approach, we derive a numerically tractable formula for the likelihood function associated with the diffusion parameters. In a simulated environment made of three types of regions, each associated with a different diffusion coefficient, we successfully estimate the diffusion parameters with a maximum-likelihood approach. Although higher genetic differentiation among subpopulations leads to more accurate estimations, once a certain level of differentiation has been reached, the finite size of the genotyped population becomes the limiting factor for accurate estimation.

  18. Combining heart rate and accelerometer data to estimate physical fitness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tönis, Thijs; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring changes in physical fitness is relevant in many conditions and groups of patients, but its estimation demands substantial effort from the person, personnel and equipment. Besides that, present (sub) maximal exercise tests give a momentary fitness score, which depends on many (external)

  19. Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) normative elevation rates: comparisons with epidemiological prevalence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarescavage, Anthony M; Marek, Ryan J; Finn, Jacob A; Hicks, Adam; Rapier, Jessica L; Ben-Porath, Yossef S

    2013-01-01

    Odland, Berthelson, Sharma, Martin, and Mittenberg ( 2013 ) caution that clinically elevated scale scores produced by members of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF; Ben-Porath & Tellegen, 2008 /2011) normative sample raise concerns about the potential for false positive findings of psychopathology. However, the MMPI-2-RF normative sample is intended to represent the general population of the United States, 26.2% of which met criteria for a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual-IV (APA, 1994 ) disorder in a 12-month period (Kessler, Chiu, Demler, & Walters, 2005 ). In the current study we compare scale elevation rates in the MMPI-2-RF normative sample to prevalence rates of mental disorders primarily drawn from the National Comorbidity Study Replication (Kessler et al., 2005 ). Our objective was to evaluate MMPI-2-RF elevation rates in an epidemiological context. Results indicate that MMPI-2-RF scale elevation rates were generally consistent with epidemiological data when examined in the context of standard interpretation guidelines for the inventory. We also reiterate Ben-Porath and Tellegen's (2008/2011) caution that MMPI-2-RF scale elevations alone are not sufficient to indicate the presence of psychiatric disorder. Rather they are best viewed as indications of the need to evaluate the individual for possible disorder(s). Implications of these results, limitations of this study, and future directions in research are discussed.

  20. Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

  1. Estimation of Corporate Credit Rating Quality in Emerging Markets

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    information that is not already readily available to investors. In order to ... is institutionalisation: that is, the increased use of credit ratings in financial ..... three financial ratios are included in the model to account for within-firm default risks.

  2. Prevalence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Al-Darwish

    2014-07-01

    Conclusion: Results indicated that dental caries prevalence among school children in Qatar has reached critical levels, and is influenced by socio-demographic factors. The mean decayed, missing, and filled teeth values obtained in this study were the second highest detected in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

  3. Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela

    OpenAIRE

    Hilde Bjørnland

    2004-01-01

    To determine whether the real exchange rate is misaligned with respect to its long-run equilibrium is an important issue for policy makers. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. By imposing long-run restrictions on a VAR model for Venezuela, four structural shocks are identified: Nominal demand, real demand, supply and oil price shocks. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are c...

  4. Estimating the market premium in short term interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Hans Fredrik

    2006-01-01

    Looking at the term structure in the interest rate market one can’t help notice the evident market premium above the central banks target rate. What factors might decide this premium? By using different variations of simple regression models we see that the model is constantly lagging the real time series. Acknowledging the fact that market clearings often are subject to several equations; we’re better able to develop a sensible model using a simultaneous equilibrium model. The multiple equat...

  5. The prevalence of diagnosed chronic conditions and multimorbidity in Australia: A method for estimating population prevalence from general practice patient encounter data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Harrison

    Full Text Available To estimate the prevalence of common chronic conditions and multimorbidity among patients at GP encounters and among people in the Australian population. To assess the extent to which use of each individual patient's GP attendance over the previous year, instead of the average for their age-sex group, affects the precision of national population prevalence estimates of diagnosed chronic conditions.A sub-study (between November 2012 and March 2016 of the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health program, a continuous national study of GP activity. Each of 1,449 GPs provided data for about 30 consecutive patients (total 43,501 indicating for each, number of GP attendances in previous year and all diagnosed chronic conditions, using their knowledge of the patient, patient self-report, and patient's health record.Hypertension (26.5% was the most prevalent diagnosed chronic condition among patients surveyed, followed by osteoarthritis (22.7%, hyperlipidaemia (16.6%, depression (16.3%, anxiety (11.9%, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD (11.3%, chronic back pain (9.7% and Type 2 diabetes (9.6%. After adjustment, we estimated population prevalence of hypertension as 12.4%, 9.5% osteoarthritis, 8.2% hyperlipidaemia, 8.0% depression, 5.8% anxiety and 5.2% asthma. Estimates were significantly lower than those derived using the previous method. About half (51.6% the patients at GP encounters had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and over one third (37.4% had three or more. Population estimates were: 25.7% had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and 15.8% had three or more.Of the three approaches we have tested to date, this study provides the most accurate method for estimation of population prevalence of chronic conditions using the GP as an expert interviewer, by adjusting for each patient's reported attendance.

  6. [Estimates of the prevalence of child malnutrition in Brazilian municipalities in 2006].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benício, Maria Helena D'Aquino; Martins, Ana Paula Bortoletto; Venancio, Sonia Isoyama; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de

    2013-06-01

    To estimate the prevalence of malnutrition in children for all Brazilian municipalities. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to estimate the individual probability of malnutrition in 5,507 Brazilian municipalities in 2006, in terms of predictive factors grouped according to hierarchical levels. The response variable was child malnutrition (children aged from six to 59 months with height for age and sex below -2 z-scores, according to the World Health Organization standard). The predictive variables were determinants of malnutrition measured similarly by the National Demographics and Health Survey-2006 and the Sample from the 2000 Demographic Census. At level 1 (individual): sex and age, level 2 (household): socioeconomic variables, water and indoor plumbing, urban or rural area and level 3 (municipal): location of the municipality and coverage of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) in 2006. The study detected a statistically significant chance of malnutrition in male children, those living in households with two or more individuals per room, those belonging to the lowest quintiles of the socioeconomic score, those with three or more children under five in the household, those with no access to running water or located in the North. There was a negative dose-response association between FHS coverage and the chance of malnutrition (p = 0.007). FHS coverage in the municipality equal to or greater than 70% showed a 45% reduction in the chance of infant malnutrition. Estimates of the prevalence of child malnutrition show that most of the cities have the risk of malnutrition under control, very low or low. Risks of greater magnitude exist only in 158 municipalities in the North Region. Childhood malnutrition as a public health problem is concentrated in the cities of the North region, where FHS coverage is lower. A protective effect of FHS in relation to child malnutrition was found in the country as a whole, irrespective of other determinants of the problem.

  7. Capture-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, W.L.; Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Runge, M.C.

    2004-01-01

    Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state mark-resighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982?2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.

  8. Estimating the prevalence of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands using structured additive regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Kassteele, Jan; Zwakhals, Laurens; Breugelmans, Oscar; Ameling, Caroline; van den Brink, Carolien

    2017-07-01

    Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the

  9. Low disease prevalence and inappropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator shock rate in Brugada syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Anders Gaarsdal; Jensen, Henrik Kjærulf; Eschen, Ole

    2012-01-01

    AimsBrugada syndrome (BrS) is an inherited channelopathy that predisposes to malignant ventricular arrhythmias and thereby syncope and sudden cardiac death. Prior studies characterizing BrS patients have used highly selected referral populations from tertiary centres and prevalence estimates have...... been carried out using electrocardiogram (ECG) surveys only. We aimed to identify and characterize all diagnosed BrS patients in Denmark (population 5.4 million).Methods and resultsBrugada syndrome patients were identified using several modalities including identification in all Danish tertiary......%) experienced inappropriate shocks during a median follow-up of 47 months. No patient died or experienced aborted sudden cardiac death during follow-up.ConclusionsWe report the first nationwide study of BrS patients. We found a low incidence of diagnosed definite BrS compared with estimates from ECG surveys...

  10. Estimating spontaneous mutation rates at enzyme loci in Drosophila melanogaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukai, Terumi; Yamazaki, Tsuneyuki; Harada, Ko; Kusakabe, Shin-ichi

    1990-04-01

    Spontaneous mutations were accumulated for 1,620,826 allele-generations on chromosomes that originated from six stem second chromosomes of Drosophila melanogaster. Only null-electromorph mutations were detected. Band-electromorph mutations were not found. The average rate of null-electromorph mutations was 2.71 x 10 -5 per locus per generation. The 95% confidence interval (μ n ) was 1.97 x 10 -5 n -5 per locus per generation. The upper 95% confidence limit of the band-electromorph mutation rate (μ B ) was 2.28 x 10 -6 per locus per generation. It appeared that null mutations were induced by movable genetic elements and that the mutation rates were different from chromosome to chromosome. (author)

  11. Curve fitting of the corporate recovery rates: the comparison of Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rongda; Wang, Ze

    2013-01-01

    Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio's loss and economic capital. Neglecting the randomness of the distribution of recovery rate may underestimate the risk. The study introduces two kinds of models of distribution, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density distribution estimation, to simulate the distribution of recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds. As is known, models based on Beta distribution are common in daily usage, such as CreditMetrics by J.P. Morgan, Portfolio Manager by KMV and Losscalc by Moody's. However, it has a fatal defect that it can't fit the bimodal or multimodal distributions such as recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds as Moody's new data show. In order to overcome this flaw, the kernel density estimation is introduced and we compare the simulation results by histogram, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation to reach the conclusion that the Gaussian kernel density distribution really better imitates the distribution of the bimodal or multimodal data samples of corporate loans and bonds. Finally, a Chi-square test of the Gaussian kernel density estimation proves that it can fit the curve of recovery rates of loans and bonds. So using the kernel density distribution to precisely delineate the bimodal recovery rates of bonds is optimal in credit risk management.

  12. Curve fitting of the corporate recovery rates: the comparison of Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongda Chen

    Full Text Available Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio's loss and economic capital. Neglecting the randomness of the distribution of recovery rate may underestimate the risk. The study introduces two kinds of models of distribution, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density distribution estimation, to simulate the distribution of recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds. As is known, models based on Beta distribution are common in daily usage, such as CreditMetrics by J.P. Morgan, Portfolio Manager by KMV and Losscalc by Moody's. However, it has a fatal defect that it can't fit the bimodal or multimodal distributions such as recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds as Moody's new data show. In order to overcome this flaw, the kernel density estimation is introduced and we compare the simulation results by histogram, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation to reach the conclusion that the Gaussian kernel density distribution really better imitates the distribution of the bimodal or multimodal data samples of corporate loans and bonds. Finally, a Chi-square test of the Gaussian kernel density estimation proves that it can fit the curve of recovery rates of loans and bonds. So using the kernel density distribution to precisely delineate the bimodal recovery rates of bonds is optimal in credit risk management.

  13. Curve Fitting of the Corporate Recovery Rates: The Comparison of Beta Distribution Estimation and Kernel Density Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rongda; Wang, Ze

    2013-01-01

    Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio’s loss and economic capital. Neglecting the randomness of the distribution of recovery rate may underestimate the risk. The study introduces two kinds of models of distribution, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density distribution estimation, to simulate the distribution of recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds. As is known, models based on Beta distribution are common in daily usage, such as CreditMetrics by J.P. Morgan, Portfolio Manager by KMV and Losscalc by Moody’s. However, it has a fatal defect that it can’t fit the bimodal or multimodal distributions such as recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds as Moody’s new data show. In order to overcome this flaw, the kernel density estimation is introduced and we compare the simulation results by histogram, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation to reach the conclusion that the Gaussian kernel density distribution really better imitates the distribution of the bimodal or multimodal data samples of corporate loans and bonds. Finally, a Chi-square test of the Gaussian kernel density estimation proves that it can fit the curve of recovery rates of loans and bonds. So using the kernel density distribution to precisely delineate the bimodal recovery rates of bonds is optimal in credit risk management. PMID:23874558

  14. Disturbances of motor unit rate modulation are prevalent in muscles of spastic-paretic stroke survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckman, C. J.; Powers, R. K.; Rymer, W. Z.; Suresh, N. L.

    2014-01-01

    Stroke survivors often exhibit abnormally low motor unit firing rates during voluntary muscle activation. Our purpose was to assess the prevalence of saturation in motor unit firing rates in the spastic-paretic biceps brachii muscle of stroke survivors. To achieve this objective, we recorded the incidence and duration of impaired lower- and higher-threshold motor unit firing rate modulation in spastic-paretic, contralateral, and healthy control muscle during increases in isometric force generated by the elbow flexor muscles. Impaired firing was considered to have occurred when firing rate became constant (i.e., saturated), despite increasing force. The duration of impaired firing rate modulation in the lower-threshold unit was longer for spastic-paretic (3.9 ± 2.2 s) than for contralateral (1.4 ± 0.9 s; P unit was also longer for the spastic-paretic (1.7 ± 1.6 s) than contralateral (0.3 ± 0.3 s; P = 0.007) and control (0.1 ± 0.2 s; P = 0.009) muscles. This impaired firing rate of the lower-threshold unit arose, despite an increase in the overall descending command, as shown by the recruitment of the higher-threshold unit during the time that the lower-threshold unit was saturating, and by the continuous increase in averages of the rectified EMG of the biceps brachii muscle throughout the rising phase of the contraction. These results suggest that impairments in firing rate modulation are prevalent in motor units of spastic-paretic muscle, even when the overall descending command to the muscle is increasing. PMID:24572092

  15. Smoking prevalence in Medicaid has been declining at a negligible rate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Hong Zhu

    Full Text Available In recent decades the overall smoking prevalence in the US has fallen steadily. This study examines whether the same trend is seen in the Medicaid population.National Health Interview Survey (NHIS data from 17 consecutive annual surveys from 1997 to 2013 (combined N = 514,043 were used to compare smoking trends for 4 insurance groups: Medicaid, the Uninsured, Private Insurance, and Other Coverage. Rates of chronic disease and psychological distress were also compared.Adjusted smoking prevalence showed no detectable decline in the Medicaid population (from 33.8% in 1997 to 31.8% in 2013, trend test P = 0.13, while prevalence in the other insurance groups showed significant declines (38.6%-34.7% for the Uninsured, 21.3%-15.8% for Private Insurance, and 22.6%-16.8% for Other Coverage; all P's<0.005. Among individuals who have ever smoked, Medicaid recipients were less likely to have quit (38.8% than those in Private Insurance (62.3% or Other Coverage (69.8%; both P's<0.001. Smokers in Medicaid were more likely than those in Private Insurance and the Uninsured to have chronic disease (55.0% vs 37.3% and 32.4%, respectively; both P's<0.01. Smokers in Medicaid were also more likely to experience severe psychological distress (16.2% for Medicaid vs 3.2% for Private Insurance and 7.6% for the Uninsured; both P's<0.001.The high and relatively unchanging smoking prevalence in the Medicaid population, low quit ratio, and high rates of chronic disease and severe psychological distress highlight the need to focus on this population. A targeted and sustained campaign to help Medicaid recipients quit smoking is urgently needed.

  16. [Diabetes mellitus in Spain: death rates, prevalence, impact, costs and inequalities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel; Escolar-Pujolar, Antonio; Mayoral-Sánchez, Eduardo; Corral-San Laureano, Florentino; Fernández-Fernández, Isabel

    2006-03-01

    Describing the situation of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Spain from a public health perspective. manual review of books and other documents on diabetes mellitus in Spain was conducted. In addition, a specific research of articles published using MeSH terms diabetes mortality, prevalence, incidence, cost, inequalities and Spain was conducted in Medline through Internet (PubMed). Minimun Basic Data Set was utilized as source for complication description by Communities Autonomus. DM is one of the leading cause of mortality and the third one in women. With regard to Autonomous Communities, Canary Islands, Ceuta y Melilla and Andalusia show the greatest mortality with a downward trend. Diabetics present greater mortality than non diabetic patients, being complications the main cause of the over-mortality, especially ischemic heart disease. Estimations of prevalence for DM2 range from 4.8% to 18.7% and for DM1, from .08% to .2%. In pregnancy, it has been noted a prevalence ranging from 4.5% to 16.1%. With respect to incidence per year, it is estimated a range from 146 to 820 per 100,000 inhabitants for DM2 and a range from 10 to 17 new cases annually per 100,000 inhabitants for DM1. Costs for DM1 show very different results, averaging between 1,262 and 3,311 euro per people and year. There are differences for DM2 costs as well, averaging between 381 and 2,560 euro per patient and year. Total costs estimated range from 758 to 4,348 euro per person and year. Relationship between a low socioeconomic level (LSL) and DM2 risk has been proved. Moreover, it has been noted that the less LSL the worse is the disease control, coupled with a greater frequency and more frequent factors of DM2 risk. The knowledge about the situation of the DM as a Public Health problem in Spain is limited. Mortality data available does not gather its real magnitude, and prevalence, incidence, costs and inequalities research are very poor and hardly comparable. In spite of this degree of incertitude, we

  17. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  18. Drivers and annual estimates of marine wildlife entanglement rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McIntosh, R.R.; Kirkwood, Roger; Sutherland, D.R.; Dann, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Methods of calculating wildlife entanglement rates are not standardised between studies and often ignore the influence of observer effort, confounding comparisons. From 1997-2013 we identified 359 entangled Australian fur seals at Seal Rocks, south-eastern Australia. Most entanglement materials

  19. Estimating Maternal Mortality Rate Using Sisterhood Methods in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... maternal and child morbidity and mortality, which could serve as a surveillance strategy to identify the magnitude of the problem and to mobilize resources to areas where the problems are most prominent for adequate control. KEY WORDS: Maternal Mortality Rate, Sisterhood Method. Highland Medical Research Journal ...

  20. Reconciling Estimates of Earnings Processes in Growth Rates and Levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daly, Moira; Hryshko, Dmytro; Manovskii, Iourii

    The stochastic process for earnings is the key element of incomplete markets models in modern quantitative macroeconomics. It determines both the equilibrium distributions of endogenous outcomes and the design of optimal policies. Yet, there is no consensus in the literature on the relative...... magnitudes of the permanent and transitory innovations in earnings. When estimation is based on the earnings moments in levels, the variance of transitory shocks is found to be relatively high. When the moments in differences are used, the variance of the permanent component is relatively high instead. We...

  1. Accuracy Rates of Ancestry Estimation by Forensic Anthropologists Using Identified Forensic Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Richard M; Parks, Connie L; Richard, Adam H

    2017-07-01

    A common task in forensic anthropology involves the estimation of the ancestry of a decedent by comparing their skeletal morphology and measurements to skeletons of individuals from known geographic groups. However, the accuracy rates of ancestry estimation methods in actual forensic casework have rarely been studied. This article uses 99 forensic cases with identified skeletal remains to develop accuracy rates for ancestry estimations conducted by forensic anthropologists. The overall rate of correct ancestry estimation from these cases is 90.9%, which is comparable to most research-derived rates and those reported by individual practitioners. Statistical tests showed no significant difference in accuracy rates depending on examiner education level or on the estimated or identified ancestry. More recent cases showed a significantly higher accuracy rate. The incorporation of metric analyses into the ancestry estimate in these cases led to a higher accuracy rate. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  2. Reducing Bias in Citizens’ Perception of Crime Rates: Evidence From a Field Experiment on Burglary Prevalence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Martin Vinæs; Olsen, Asmus Leth

    2018-01-01

    Citizens are on average too pessimistic when assessing the trajectory of current crime trends. In this study, we examine whether we can correct this perceptual bias with respect to burglaries. Using a field experiment coupled with a large panel survey (n=4,895), we explore whether a public...... information campaign can reduce misperceptions about the prevalence of burglaries. Embedding the correct information about burglary rates in a direct mail campaign, we find that it is possible to substantially reduce citizens’ misperceptions. The effects are not short lived – they are detectable several weeks...... after the mailer was sent, but they are temporary. Eventually the perceptual bias re-emerges. Our results suggest that if citizens were continually supplied with correct information about crime rates they would be less pessimistic. Reducing bias in citizens’ perception of crime rates might therefore...

  3. 10-year prevalence of contact allergy in the general population in Denmark estimated through the CE-DUR method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Uter, Wolfgang; Schnuch, Axel

    2007-01-01

    case') assumptions were based on patch test reading data in combination with an estimate of the number of persons eligible for patch testing each year based on sales data of the 'standard series'. The estimated 10-year prevalence of contact allergy ranged between 7.3% and 12.9% for adult Danes older...

  4. Comparing HIV prevalence estimates from prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programme and the antenatal HIV surveillance in Addis Ababa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirkuzie Alemnesh H

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the absence of reliable data, antenatal HIV surveillance has been used to monitor the HIV epidemic since the late 1980s. Currently, routine data from Prevention of Mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT programmes are increasingly available. Evaluating whether the PMTCT programme reports provide comparable HIV prevalence estimates with the antenatal surveillance reports is important. In this study, we compared HIV prevalence estimates from routine PMTCT programme and antenatal surveillance in Addis Ababa with the aim to come up with evidence based recommendation. Methods Summary data were collected from PMTCT programmes and antenatal surveillance reports within the catchment of Addis Ababa. The PMTCT programme data were obtained from routine monthly reports from 2004 to 2009 and from published antenatal HIV surveillance reports from 2003 to 2009. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results In Addis Ababa, PMTCT sites had increased from six in 2004 to 54 in 2009. The site expansion was accompanied by an increased number of women testing. There were marked increases in the rate of HIV testing following the introduction of routine opt-out HIV testing approach. Paralleling these increases, the HIV prevalence showed a steady decline from 10.0% in 2004 to 4.5% in 2009. There were five antenatal surveillance sites from 2003 to 2007 in Addis Ababa and they increased to seven by 2009. Four rounds of surveillance data from five sites showed a declining trend in HIV prevalence over the years. The overall antenatal surveillance data also showed that the HIV prevalence among antenatal attendees had declined from 12.4% in 2003 to 5.5% in 2009. The HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme were 6.2% and 4.5% and from antenatal surveillance 6.1 and 5.5% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Conclusions There were consistent HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme and from antenatal surveillance reports. Both data sources

  5. Prevalence of Multiple Chronic Conditions Among US Adults: Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiller, Jeannine S.

    2013-01-01

    Preventing and ameliorating chronic conditions has long been a priority in the United States; however, the increasing recognition that people often have multiple chronic conditions (MCC) has added a layer of complexity with which to contend. The objective of this study was to present the prevalence of MCC and the most common MCC dyads/triads by selected demographic characteristics. We used respondent-reported data from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to study the US adult civilian noninstitutionalized population aged 18 years or older (n = 27,157). We categorized adults as having 0 to 1, 2 to 3, or 4 or more of the following chronic conditions: hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, hepatitis, weak or failing kidneys, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or current asthma. We then generated descriptive estimates and tested for significant differences. Twenty-six percent of adults have MCC; the prevalence of MCC has increased from 21.8% in 2001 to 26.0% in 2010. The prevalence of MCC significantly increased with age, was significantly higher among women than men and among non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black adults than Hispanic adults. The most common dyad identified was arthritis and hypertension, and the combination of arthritis, hypertension, and diabetes was the most common triad. The findings of this study contribute information to the field of MCC research. The NHIS can be used to identify population subgroups most likely to have MCC and potentially lead to clinical guidelines for people with more common MCC combinations. PMID:23618545

  6. Integrating environmental and self-report data to refine cannabis prevalence estimates in a major urban area of Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Been, Frederic; Schneider, Christian; Zobel, Frank; Delémont, Olivier; Esseiva, Pierre

    2016-10-01

    Cannabis consumption is a topical subject because of discussions about reviewing current regulations. In this context, having a more comprehensive approach to assess and monitor prevalence and consumption is highly relevant. The objective of this work was to refine current estimates about prevalence of cannabis use by combining self-report data and results derived from wastewater analysis. Self-report data was retrieved from surveys conducted in Switzerland and Europe. Wastewater samples were collected at the wastewater treatment plant of Lausanne, western Switzerland, over a 15 months period. The occurrence of 11-nor-9-carboxy-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH), a specific metabolite of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), was monitored. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate consumption, prevalence and number of cannabis users in the investigated area. According to survey data, 12-months prevalence in western Switzerland was estimated to 6.2% of the population aged 15 or older, with an estimated daily cannabis consumption of 8.1gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1) (at 11.2% purity). The integrative model comprising self-report and wastewater data substantially reduced the uncertainty in the estimates and suggested a last-year prevalence of 9.4%, with a daily cannabis consumption of 14.0gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1). Although in the same order of magnitude, consumption and prevalence estimates obtained with the integrative model were 78% and 52% higher compared to self-report figures, respectively. Interestingly, these figures are similar to discrepancies observed when comparing self-reported alcohol consumption and sales or tax data. The suggested integrative model allowed to account for known sources of uncertainty and provided refined estimates of cannabis prevalence in a major urban area of Switzerland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Effect of lemongrass tea consumption on estimated glomerular filtration rate and creatinine clearance rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekpenyong, Christopher E; Daniel, Nyebuk E; Antai, Atim B

    2015-01-01

    The existing research findings regarding the effects of lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus) tea on renal function indices are conflicting and inconclusive. In the present study, we investigated the effects of infusions prepared from C citratus leaves on creatinine clearance rate (CCr) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in humans. One hundred five subjects (55 men and 50 women) aged 18 to 35 years were randomly assigned to groups set to orally receive infusions prepared from 2, 4, or 8 g of C citratus leaf powder once daily, for 30 days. Serum and urinary levels of urea, creatinine, pH, specific gravity, uric acid, electrolytes, diuretic indices, and eGFR were assessed at days 0, 10, and 30 after the initiation of treatment. Results obtained on days10 and 30 were compared with baseline values. CCr and eGFR decreased significantly at day 30 in both male and female subjects in all the groups and in females treated with infusion prepared from 8 g of C citratus leaf powder for 10 days. At day 10, CCr and eGFR were unchanged in those treated with infusions prepared from 2 or 4 g of the leaf powder, whereas diuretic indices (urine volume, urination frequency, diuretic action, and saliuretic indices) increased above the baseline levels. Serum and urinary creatinine levels significantly increased (P < .05) in both male and female subjects in all the groups. Serum urea significantly increased in the groups treated with infusions prepared from 4 or 8 g of the leaf powder (P < .05) for 30 days. Serum electrolytes remained unchanged, but their urinary levels increased. We observed dose- and time-dependent adverse effects of C citratus on CCr and eGFR. At a high dose or with prolonged treatment with a low dose, eGFR decrease may be followed by a decline in the other renal function indices. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Improving SysSim's Planetary Occurrence Rate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashby, Keir; Ragozzine, Darin; Hsu, Danley; Ford, Eric B.

    2017-10-01

    Kepler's catalog of thousands of transiting planet candidates enables statistical characterization of the underlying planet occurrence rates as a function of period and radius. Due to geometric factors and general noise in measurements, we know that many planets--especially those with a small-radius and/or long-period--were not observed by Kepler.To account for Kepler's detection criteria, Hsu et al. 2017 expanded on work in Lissuaer et al. 2011 to develop the Planetary System Simulator or "SysSim". SysSim uses a forward model to generate simulated catalogs of exoplanet systems, determine which of those simulated planets would have been seen by Kepler in the presence of uncertainties, and then compares those “observed planets” to those actually seen by Kepler. It then uses Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer the posterior probability distributions of the input parameters used to generate the forward model. In Hsu et al. 2017, we focused on matching the observed frequency of planets by solving for the underlying occurrence rate for each bin in a 2-dimensional grid of radius and period. After summarizing the results of Hsu et al. 2017, we show new results that investigate the effect on occurrence rates from including more accurate completeness products (from the Kepler DR25 analysis) into SysSim.

  9. The impact of height during childhood on the national prevalence rates of overweight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dommelen, Paula; de Kroon, Marlou L A; Cameron, Noël; Schönbeck, Yvonne; van Buuren, Stef

    2014-01-01

    It is known that height and body mass index (BMI) are correlated in childhood. However, its impact on the (trend of) national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity has never been investigated. The aim of our study is to investigate the relation between height and national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in childhood between 1980, 1997, and 2009, and to calculate which fixed value of p (2.0,2.1, …,3.0) in kg/m(p) during childhood is most accurate in predicting adult overweight. Cross-sectional growth data of children from three Dutch nationwide surveys in 1980, 1997, and 2009, and longitudinal data from the Terneuzen Birth Cohort and the Harpenden Growth Study were used. Relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Our study showed that tall (>1 standard deviation (SD)) girls aged 5.0-13.9 y were more often overweight (RR = 3.5,95%CI:2.8-4.4) and obese (RR = 3.9,95%CI:2.1-7.4) than short girls (rates of overweight and obesity than their shorter peers. We suggest taking into account the impact of height when evaluating trends and variations of BMI distributions in childhood, and to use BMI to predict adult overweight.

  10. Problematic video game use: estimated prevalence and associations with mental and physical health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentzoni, Rune Aune; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Molde, Helge; Myrseth, Helga; Skouverøe, Knut Joachim Mår; Hetland, Jørn; Pallesen, Ståle

    2011-10-01

    A nationwide survey was conducted to investigate the prevalence of video game addiction and problematic video game use and their association with physical and mental health. An initial sample comprising 2,500 individuals was randomly selected from the Norwegian National Registry. A total of 816 (34.0 percent) individuals completed and returned the questionnaire. The majority (56.3 percent) of respondents used video games on a regular basis. The prevalence of video game addiction was estimated to be 0.6 percent, with problematic use of video games reported by 4.1 percent of the sample. Gender (male) and age group (young) were strong predictors for problematic use of video games. A higher proportion of high frequency compared with low frequency players preferred massively multiplayer online role-playing games, although the majority of high frequency players preferred other game types. Problematic use of video games was associated with lower scores on life satisfaction and with elevated levels of anxiety and depression. Video game use was not associated with reported amount of physical exercise.

  11. Clinical investigation of proximate exposed group. 1. A study for prevalence rate of diabetes mellitus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ito, Chikako; Hasegawa, Kazuyo; Kato, Masafumi; Kumasawa, Toshihiko

    1984-11-01

    In order to investigate effects of the A-bombing on prevalence of diabetes mellitus, follow-up studies were made on 5907 A-bomb survivors who received glucose tolerance test (GTT) during 20 years between 1963 and 1983. The A-bomb survivors were divided into the group A (1899 men and 1165 women exposed within 1.9 km from the hypocenter) and the group B (1725 men and 1118 women exposed 3.0 km or farther from it). Among non-obese survivors, 21.9% and 21.8% were being treated for diabetes mellitus or were evaluated as having diabetic type on GTT in the group A and the group B, respectively; while this was seen in 52.1% of obese survivors in the group A and 49.9% in the group B. There was no difference between the groups. In non-obese survivors, the annual development rate from the normal type to the diabetic type was 0.89% in the group A and 0.65% in the group B; the annual development rate from the borderline type to the diabetic type was 5.73% in the group A and 5.49% in the group B, showing no differences between the groups. The annual development rate from the normal or borderline type to the diabetic type was two times or higher in obese survivors than in non-obese survivors irrespective of exposure status. Regarding the number of diabetic survivors who became non-diabetic type in spite of having no treatment, and prevalence of diabetic complications, no difference was seen between the groups. These results suggest that the A-bombing has scarcely influenced the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and clinical course.

  12. Prevalence Estimates of Antibodies Towards Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Small Ruminants in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balinda, Sheila Nina; Tjørnehøj, Kirsten; Muwanika, Vincent B.

    2009-01-01

    summarizes results of serological investigations of sheep and goats for antibodies to FMDV from four districts in 2006 following an FMD outbreak in the region and from an attempted comprehensive random sampling in two districts in 2007. Antibodies were quantified and serotyped using competitive ELISA...... for antibodies towards non-structural proteins (NSP) and structural proteins towards serotype O, and blocking ELISA for antibodies towards the seven serotypes of FMD virus (FMDV). In 2006, sheep and goats in Bushenyi and Isingiro districts were free from antibodies towards FMDV, while herds in Kasese and Mbarara...... districts excluding Kahendero village were all positive for antibodies towards NSP and SP-O. In 2007, mean prevalence estimates of antibodies towards FMDV NSP was 14% in goats and 22% in sheep in Kasese district, while Bushenyi was still free. The difference between these two districts probably reflects...

  13. ESTIMATING RETURN RATE OF HIGHER EDUCATION FUND IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semenikhina V. A.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the Russian government pays great attention to the field of higher and postgraduate education. But in the Russian scientific literature there are gaps related to the effectiveness of the overall evaluation of the higher education sector. The article dwells upon the problem of interregional income spread of the Russian population. Empirical estimator of difference influence accounting for human capital accumulated in Russian regions on wage levels and maximum increase of total wage levels and population income for 2001-2011 is carried out. Higher education, exceeding the influence of accumulated volume of the main funds, has a great influence on income spread in Russian regions. Besides, increase of higher education fund in Russian regions contributes to the population’s wage increase and growth in income, but at the same time it decreases legal wages. Results of the study extend knowledge of the economics of education of the Russian Federation.

  14. Size estimation, HIV prevalence and risk behaviours of female sex workers in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altaf, A.; Aga, A.; McKinizie, M.H.; Abbas, Q.; Jafri, S.B.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To provide size estimation and to determine risky behaviours and HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Pakistan, which has progressed from a low to concentrated level of HIV epidemic. Methods: A cross-sectional study (geographic mapping and integrated behavioural and biological survey-IBBS) was conducted between August 2005 to January 2006 in Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur. A detailed questionnaire and dry blood spot (DBS) specimen for HIV testing were collected by trained interviewers after informed consent. The study was ethically approved by review boards in Canada and Pakistan. Results: About 14,900 female sex workers were estimated to be functional in Sindh. A total of 1158 of them were interviewed for the study. Average age of sex workers was 27.4+- 6.7 years, and the majority 787 (67.9%) were married, and uneducated 764 (65.9%). Sindhi (26.4%) was the predominant ethnicity. Mean number of paid clients was 2.1+-1.2. Three workers were confirmed HIV positive (0.75%, 95 percent CI 0.2-2.2%) from Karachi. Condom use at last sexual act was highest (68%) among brothel-based workers from Karachi, and the lowest in Sukkur where only 1.3% street-based workers reported using a condom at last sexual act. Overall use of illicit drugs through injections was negligible. Conclusion: HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Sindh, Pakistan is low but risky behaviours are present. Well organised service delivery programmes can help promoting safer practices. (author)

  15. Rates of convergence and asymptotic normality of curve estimators for ergodic diffusion processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.H. van Zanten (Harry)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractFor ergodic diffusion processes, we study kernel-type estimators for the invariant density, its derivatives and the drift function. We determine rates of convergence and find the joint asymptotic distribution of the estimators at different points.

  16. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Anne

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". Methods Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25–64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as US$ per capita per year. Results 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%. Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg or treatment of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (≥6.2 mmol/l; 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (2 and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to US $45.6, i.e. $11.2 for high blood pressure, $3.8 for diabetes, and $30.6 for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia. Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to $22.6. Conclusion High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

  17. Prevalence rate of supernumerary teeth among non-syndromic South Indian population: An analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Nazargi Mahabob

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Supernumerary teeth are considered as one of the most significant dental anomalies during the primary and early mixed dentition stage. The main objective of the study was to determine the prevalence rate of supernumerary teeth in the patients who reported to the Department of Oral Medicine and Radiology and to study the associated clinical complications. Materials and Methods: A longitudinal observational study was conducted of 2216 patients for a period of 4 months with the documentation of demographic data, the presence of supernumerary teeth, their location, and associated complications such as mechanical trauma, dental caries, and associated pathology. Results: The study recorded 27 supernumerary teeth from the examined 2216 patients. This yields a prevalence of 1.2%, with greater frequency in males which was 1.49% and in females the frequency was 0.85%. The greatest proportion of supernumerary teeth was found in the maxillary anterior region (77.8%. Out of this, 85.7% were classified as mesiodens based on their location. The displacement of adjacent teeth was the most common finding, followed by dental caries. Conclusion: The prevalence of supernumerary teeth in this study was 1.2% which is in agreement with that reported in similar studies and the maxillary mesiodens was the most common location. Displacement of adjacent teeth was the most common finding.

  18. Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

    2014-11-01

    National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

  19. Gender differences in drunk driving prevalence rates and trends: a 20-year assessment using multiple sources of evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Jennifer

    2008-09-01

    This research tracked women's and men's drunk driving rates and the DUI sex ratio in the United States from 1982-2004 using three diverse sources of evidence. Sex-specific prevalence estimates and the sex ratio are derived from official arrest statistics from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, self-reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and traffic fatality data from the National Highway and Transportation Safety Administration. Drunk driving trends were analyzed using Augmented Dickey Fuller time series techniques. Female DUI arrest rates increased whereas male rates declined then stabilized, producing a significantly narrower sex ratio. According to self-report and traffic data, women's and men's drunk driving rates declined and the gender gap was unchanged. Women's overrepresentation in arrests relative to their share of offending began in the 1990s and accelerated in 2000. Women's arrest gains, contrasted with no systematic change in DUI behavior, and the timing of this shift suggest an increased vulnerability to arrest. More stringent laws and enforcement directed at less intoxicated offenders may inadvertently target female offending patterns.

  20. Data on empirically estimated corporate survival rate in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzmin, Evgeny A

    2018-02-01

    The article presents data on the corporate survival rate in Russia in 1991-2014. The empirical survey was based on a random sample with the average number of non-repeated observations (number of companies) for the survey each year equal to 75,958 (24,236 minimum and 126,953 maximum). The actual limiting mean error ∆ p was 2.24% with 99% integrity. The survey methodology was based on a cross joining of various formal periods in the corporate life cycles (legal and business), which makes it possible to talk about a conventionally active time life of companies' existence with a number of assumptions. The empirical survey values were grouped by Russian regions and industries according to the classifier and consolidated into a single database for analysing the corporate life cycle and their survival rate and searching for deviation dependencies in calculated parameters. Preliminary and incomplete figures were available in the paper entitled "Survival Rate and Lifecycle in Terms of Uncertainty: Review of Companies from Russia and Eastern Europe" (Kuzmin and Guseva, 2016) [3]. The further survey led to filtered processed data with clerical errors excluded. These particular values are available in the article. The survey intended to fill a fact-based gap in various fundamental surveys that involved matters of the corporate life cycle in Russia within the insufficient statistical framework. The data are of interest for an analysis of Russian entrepreneurship, assessment of the market development and incorporation risks in the current business environment. A further heuristic potential is achievable through an ability of forecasted changes in business demography and model building based on the representative data set.

  1. Defining the relationship between Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical disease: statistical models for disease burden estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snow Robert W

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical malaria has proven an elusive burden to enumerate. Many cases go undetected by routine disease recording systems. Epidemiologists have, therefore, frequently defaulted to actively measuring malaria in population cohorts through time. Measuring the clinical incidence of malaria longitudinally is labour-intensive and impossible to undertake universally. There is a need, therefore, to define a relationship between clinical incidence and the easier and more commonly measured index of infection prevalence: the "parasite rate". This relationship can help provide an informed basis to define malaria burdens in areas where health statistics are inadequate. Methods Formal literature searches were conducted for Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence surveys undertaken prospectively through active case detection at least every 14 days. The data were abstracted, standardized and geo-referenced. Incidence surveys were time-space matched with modelled estimates of infection prevalence derived from a larger database of parasite prevalence surveys and modelling procedures developed for a global malaria endemicity map. Several potential relationships between clinical incidence and infection prevalence were then specified in a non-parametric Gaussian process model with minimal, biologically informed, prior constraints. Bayesian inference was then used to choose between the candidate models. Results The suggested relationships with credible intervals are shown for the Africa and a combined America and Central and South East Asia regions. In both regions clinical incidence increased slowly and smoothly as a function of infection prevalence. In Africa, when infection prevalence exceeded 40%, clinical incidence reached a plateau of 500 cases per thousand of the population per annum. In the combined America and Central and South East Asia regions, this plateau was reached at 250 cases per thousand of the population per annum. A temporal

  2. Prevalence of xerostomia and the salivary flow rate in diabetic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malicka, Barbara; Kaczmarek, Urszula; Skośkiewicz-Malinowska, Katarzyna

    2014-01-01

    Diabetes is a metabolic disease characterized by hyperglycemia, which results from relative or absolute insulin deficiency. One of the first oral symptoms of diabetes is xerostomia. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of the xerostomia symptoms and salivary flow rate in diabetic patients according to the type of diabetes, the level of metabolic control and the duration of the disease. The study involved 156 adult patients of both sexes including 34 patients with diabetes type 1 (group C1), 59 with diabetes type 2 (group C2), and 63 generally healthy individuals as two control groups, sex- and age-matched to the diabetic group. The patients suffering from both types of diabetes were additionally subdivided according to the level of metabolic control and the duration of the disease. Xerostomia was diagnosed with the use of a specially prepared questionnaire and Fox's test. Moreover, the salivary flow rate of resting mixed saliva was measured. In type 1 diabetics, a significantly lower salivary flow rate in comparison to the age-matched control group (0.38 ± 0.19 mL/min vs. 0.53 ± 0.20 mL/min, p diabetics, a slight lower salivary flow rate was noticed (on average, 20% lower). Dry mouth was far more frequently diagnosed in type 1 diabetics than in the control group. In type 1 diabetics, in comparison to healthy subjects, a significantly lower resting flow rate of saliva and significantly higher prevalence of xerosomia were observed, but in type 2 diabetics, only a trend of such variability was observed.

  3. A rapid method to estimate Westergren sedimentation rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexy, Tamas; Pais, Eszter; Meiselman, Herbert J

    2009-09-01

    The erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) is a nonspecific but simple and inexpensive test that was introduced into medical practice in 1897. Although it is commonly utilized in the diagnosis and follow-up of various clinical conditions, ESR has several limitations including the required 60 min settling time for the test. Herein we introduce a novel use for a commercially available computerized tube viscometer that allows the accurate prediction of human Westergren ESR rates in as little as 4 min. Owing to an initial pressure gradient, blood moves between two vertical tubes through a horizontal small-bore tube and the top of the red blood cell (RBC) column in each vertical tube is monitored continuously with an accuracy of 0.083 mm. Using data from the final minute of a blood viscosity measurement, a sedimentation index (SI) was calculated and correlated with results from the conventional Westergren ESR test. To date, samples from 119 human subjects have been studied and our results indicate a strong correlation between SI and ESR values (R(2)=0.92). In addition, we found a close association between SI and RBC aggregation indices as determined by an automated RBC aggregometer (R(2)=0.71). Determining SI on human blood is rapid, requires no special training and has minimal biohazard risk, thus allowing physicians to rapidly screen for individuals with elevated ESR and to monitor therapeutic responses.

  4. CTX-M ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae: estimated prevalence in adults in England in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNulty, Cliodna A M; Lecky, Donna M; Xu-McCrae, Li; Nakiboneka-Ssenabulya, Deborah; Chung, Keun-Taik; Nichols, Tom; Thomas, Helen Lucy; Thomas, Mike; Alvarez-Buylla, Adela; Turner, Kim; Shabir, Sahida; Manzoor, Susan; Smith, Stephen; Crocker, Linda; Hawkey, Peter M

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Background ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBLPE) are increasing in prevalence worldwide and are more difficult to treat than non-ESBLPE. Their prevalence in the UK general population is unknown, as the only previous UK ESBLPE faecal colonization study involved patients with diarrhoea. Objectives To estimate the prevalence of CTX-M ESBLPE faecal colonization in the general adult population of England in 2014, and investigate risk factors. Methods A stratified random sample of 58 337 registered patients from 16 general practices within four areas of England were invited to participate by returning faeces specimens and self-completed questionnaires. Specimens were tested for ESBLPE and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE). Results 2430 individuals participated (4% of those invited). The estimated prevalence of colonization with CTX-M ESBLPE in England was 7.3% (95% CI 5.6%–9.4%) (Shropshire 774 participants, 4.9% colonization; Southampton City 740 participants, 9.2%; Newham 612 participants, 12.7%; Heart of Birmingham 234 individuals, 16.0%) and was particularly high in: those born in Afghanistan (10 participants, 60.0% colonization, 95% CI 29.7%–84.2%); those born on the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka) (259 participants, 25.0% colonization, 95% CI 18.5%–32.9%); travellers to South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Nepal) in the last year (140 participants, 38.5% colonization, 95% CI 27.8%–50.5%); and healthcare domestics (8 participants, unweighted 37.5% colonization, 95% CI 8.5%–75.5%). Risk factors identified included: being born in the Indian subcontinent (aOR 5.4, 95% CI 3.0–9.7); travel to South Asia (aOR 2.9, 95% CI 1.8–4.8) or to Africa, China, South or Central America, South East or Pacific Asia or Afghanistan (aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.7–4.1) in the last year; and working as a healthcare domestic (aOR 6.2, 95% CI 1.3–31). None of the 48 participants who took co-amoxiclav in

  5. Estimating permissible /sup 129/I-emission rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huebschmann, W G

    1976-06-01

    A mathematical method of iodine release limitation is presented which, in assessing the radiological effectiveness of /sup 129/I, takes advantage of the fact that the chemical behaviour of /sup 129/I resembles that of /sup 131/I and relies on the already extensive knowledge of the chemical and biological behaviour of /sup 131/I. If this method is used for calculating permissible /sup 129/I emission rates it is stated that no unnecessary restrictions need be imposed on a fuel reprocessing plant and that the grazing season for the pasture-cow-milk pathway can be taken into account. The concept is currently in use at the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center and seems to be appropriate for licensing of nuclear fuel reprocessing plants.

  6. Decision Tree Rating Scales for Workload Estimation: Theme and Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wietwille, W. W.; Skipper, J. H.; Rieger, C. A.

    1984-01-01

    The modified Cooper-Harper (MCH) scale has been shown to be a sensitive indicator of workload in several different types of aircrew tasks. The MCH scale was examined to determine if certain variations of the scale might provide even greater sensitivity and to determine the reasons for the sensitivity of the scale. The MCH scale and five newly devised scales were studied in two different aircraft simulator experiments in which pilot loading was treated as an independent variable. Results indicate that while one of the new scales may be more sensitive in a given experiment, task dependency is a problem. The MCH scale exhibits consistent sensitivity and remains the scale recommended for general use. The results of the rating scale experiments are presented and the questionnaire results which were directed at obtaining a better understanding of the reasons for the relative sensitivity of the MCH scale and its variations are described.

  7. Radioisotopic composition of yellowcake: an estimation of stack release rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Momeni, M.H.; Kisieleski, W.E.; Rayno, D.R.; Sabau, C.S.

    1979-12-01

    Uranium concentrate (yellowcake) composites from four mills (Anaconda, Kerr-McGee, Highland, and Uravan) were analyzed for U-238, U-235, U-234, Th-230, Ra-226, and Pb-210. The ratio of specific activities of U-238 to U-234 in the composites suggested that secular radioactive equilibrium exists in the ore. The average activity ratios in the yellowcake were determined to be 2.7 x 10 -3 (Th-230/U-238), 5 x 10 -4 (Ra-226/U-238) and 2 x 10 -4 (Pb-210/U-238). Based on earlier EPA measurements of the release rates from the stacks, the amount of yellowcake released was determined to be 0.1% of the amount processed

  8. Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using equivalent-time sampling

    KAUST Repository

    Ballal, Tarig

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation is proposed. The scheme exploits multiple observations generated by transmitting multiple pulses. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC samples at a rate that is P times slower. To avoid loss of fidelity, the number of sampling periods (based on the desired rate) in the inter-pulse interval is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this case, and to achieve an overall good channel estimation performance, without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. It is shown that this estimator is related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. Channel estimation performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme combined with the new estimator is assessed in simulation. The results show that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in almost all cases, while in the high SNR regime it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. In addition to channel estimation, a synchronization method is also proposed that utilizes the same pulse sequence used for channel estimation. © 2014 IEEE.

  9. Food allergies in developing and emerging economies: need for comprehensive data on prevalence rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boye Joyce Irene

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Although much is known today about the prevalence of food allergy in the developed world, there are serious knowledge gaps about the prevalence rates of food allergy in developing countries. Food allergy affects up to 6% of children and 4% of adults. Symptoms include urticaria, gastrointestinal distress, failure to thrive, anaphylaxis and even death. There are over 170 foods known to provoke allergic reactions. Of these, the most common foods responsible for inducing 90% of reported allergic reactions are peanuts, milk, eggs, wheat, nuts (e.g., hazelnuts, walnuts, almonds, cashews, pecans, etc., soybeans, fish, crustaceans and shellfish. Current assumptions are that prevalence rates are lower in developing countries and emerging economies such as China, Brazil and India which raises questions about potential health impacts should the assumptions not be supported by evidence. As the health and social burden of food allergy can be significant, national and international efforts focusing on food security, food safety, food quality and dietary diversity need to pay special attention to the role of food allergy in order to avoid marginalization of sub-populations in the community. More importantly, as the major food sources used in international food aid programs are frequently priority allergens (e.g., peanut, milk, eggs, soybean, fish, wheat, and due to the similarities between food allergy and some malnutrition symptoms, it will be increasingly important to understand and assess the interplay between food allergy and nutrition in order to protect and identify appropriate sources of foods for sensitized sub-populations especially in economically disadvantaged countries and communities.

  10. Population and antenatal-based HIV prevalence estimates in a high contracepting female population in rural South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barnighausen Till

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To present and compare population-based and antenatal-care (ANC sentinel surveillance HIV prevalence estimates among women in a rural South African population where both provision of ANC services and family planning is prevalent and fertility is declining. With a need, in such settings, to understand how to appropriately adjust ANC sentinel surveillance estimates to represent HIV prevalence in general populations, and with evidence of possible biases inherent to both surveillance systems, we explore differences between the two systems. There is particular emphasis on unrepresentative selection of ANC clinics and unrepresentative testing in the population. Methods HIV sero-prevalence amongst blood samples collected from women consenting to test during the 2005 annual longitudinal population-based serological survey was compared to anonymous unlinked HIV sero-prevalence amongst women attending antenatal care (ANC first visits in six clinics (January to May 2005. Both surveillance systems were conducted as part of the Africa Centre Demographic Information System. Results Population-based HIV prevalence estimates for all women (25.2% and pregnant women (23.7% were significantly lower than that for ANC attendees (37.7%. A large proportion of women attending urban or peri-urban clinics would be predicted to be resident within rural areas. Although overall estimates remained significantly different, presenting and standardising estimates by age and location (clinic for ANC-based estimates and individual-residence for population-based estimates made some group-specific estimates from the two surveillance systems more predictive of one another. Conclusion It is likely that where ANC coverage and contraceptive use is widespread and fertility is low, population-based surveillance under-estimates HIV prevalence due to unrepresentative testing by age, residence and also probably by HIV status, and that ANC sentinel surveillance over-estimates

  11. Multiple imputation to account for missing data in a survey: estimating the prevalence of osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kmetic, Andrew; Joseph, Lawrence; Berger, Claudie; Tenenhouse, Alan

    2002-07-01

    Nonresponse bias is a concern in any epidemiologic survey in which a subset of selected individuals declines to participate. We reviewed multiple imputation, a widely applicable and easy to implement Bayesian methodology to adjust for nonresponse bias. To illustrate the method, we used data from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study, a large cohort study of 9423 randomly selected Canadians, designed in part to estimate the prevalence of osteoporosis. Although subjects were randomly selected, only 42% of individuals who were contacted agreed to participate fully in the study. The study design included a brief questionnaire for those invitees who declined further participation in order to collect information on the major risk factors for osteoporosis. These risk factors (which included age, sex, previous fractures, family history of osteoporosis, and current smoking status) were then used to estimate the missing osteoporosis status for nonparticipants using multiple imputation. Both ignorable and nonignorable imputation models are considered. Our results suggest that selection bias in the study is of concern, but only slightly, in very elderly (age 80+ years), both women and men. Epidemiologists should consider using multiple imputation more often than is current practice.

  12. Changes in Yearly Birth Prevalence Rates of Children with Down Syndrome in the Period 1986-2007 in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, G.; Haveman, M.; Hochstenbach, R.; Engelen, J.; Gerssen-Schoorl, K.; Poddighe, P.; Smeets, D.; van Hove, G.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The Netherlands are lacking reliable national empirical data in relation to the development of birth prevalence of Down syndrome. Our study aims at assessing valid national live birth prevalence rates for the period 1986-2007. Method: On the basis of the annual child/adult ratio of Down syndrome diagnoses in five out of the eight Dutch…

  13. Incidence and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia: An overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alotaibi, Abdulellah; Perry, Lin; Gholizadeh, Leila; Al-Ganmi, Ali

    2017-12-01

    This study aimed to report on the trends in incidence and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia over the last 25 years (1990-2015). A descriptive review. A systematic search was conducted for English-language, peer reviewed publications of any research design via Medline, EBSCO, PubMed and Scopus from 1990 to 2015. Of 106 articles retrieved, after removal of duplicates and quality appraisal, 8 studies were included in the review and synthesised based on study characteristics, design and findings. Studies originated from Saudi Arabia and applied a variety of research designs and tools to diagnosis diabetes. Of the 8 included studies; three reported type 1 diabetes and five on type 2 diabetes. Overall, findings indicated that the incidence and prevalence rate of diabetes is rising particularly among females, older children/adolescent and in urban areas. Further development are required to assess the health intervention, polices, guidelines, self-management programs in Saudi Arabia. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. [Correlative factors on prevalence rate of dislipidemia among 1 337 coal miners in Shanxi province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Z D; Wen, D D; Wang, B; Xue, S L; Liu, G S; Li, X H; Zhao, Z H; Wang, J; Wei, B G; Wang, S P

    2017-02-10

    Objective: To understand the prevalence rate and correlative factors of dislipidemia among Shanxi coal miners and to provide evidence for the development of programs on dislipidemia prevention. Methods: We investigated 1 337 mine workers from a Coal Group in April 2016 and collected data related to their blood biochemistry. We then classified the types in accordance with the diagnostic criteria of " Guidelines for prevention and treatment of dyslipidemia in Chinese adults (2007)" , using χ (2) test and unconditional logistic regression model for analysis. Results: The overall prevalence rate of Dislipidemia was 59.1% (790/1 337), with males as 60.4% (708/1 173) and females as 50.0%(82/164) while males appeared higher ( χ (2)=6.386, P dislipidemia ( χ (2)=7.117, P dislipidemia ( P dislipidemia. Conclusion: Among the coal mine workers, those who were males, aged from 20 to 34, having high blood pressure (systolic blood pressure abnormalities) or with high BMI (≥24.0 kg/m(2)) need to be taken special attention on care and prevention of dislipidemia.

  15. Examination of anonymous canine faecal samples provides data on endoparasite prevalence rates in dogs for comparative studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinney, Barbara; Gottwald, Michaela; Moser, Jasmine; Reicher, Bianca; Schäfer, Bhavapriya Jasmin; Schaper, Roland; Joachim, Anja; Künzel, Frank

    2017-10-15

    Several endoparasites of dogs cannot only be detrimental to their primary host but might also represent a threat to human health because of their zoonotic potential. Due to their high dog population densities, metropolitan areas can be highly endemic for such parasites. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of endoparasites in dogs in the Austrian capital of Vienna by examining a representative number of canine faecal samples and to compare the prevalences with two neighbouring peri-urban and rural regions. In addition we analysed whether the density of dog populations and cleanliness of dog zones correlated with parasite occurrence. We collected 1001 anonymous faecal samples from 55 dog zones from all 23 districts of the federal state of Vienna, as well as 480 faecal samples from the Mödling district and Wolkersdorf with a peri-urban and rural character, respectively. Faeces were examined by flotation and by Baermann technique. Additionally we evaluated 292 Viennese, 102 peri-urban and 50 rural samples for Giardia and Cryptosporidium by GiardiaFASTest ® and CryptoFASTest ® . Samples from "clean" dog zones were compared to samples from "dirty" zones. The infection rate of Toxocara was surprisingly low, ranging from 0.6% to 1.9%. Trichuris was the most frequent helminth (1.8-7.5%) and Giardia the most frequent protozoan (4.0-10.8%). Ancylostomatidae, Crenosoma, Capillaria, Taeniidae, Cystoisospora and Sarcocystis were found in 1.8-2.2%, 0-0.9%, 0-0.9%, 0-0.6%, 0.3-3.1% and 0-0.6% of the samples, respectively. Samples from "dirty" dog zones in Vienna showed a significantly higher rate of parasites overall (p=0.003) and of Trichuris (p=0.048) compared to samples from "clean" dog zones. There were no statistically significant differences in densely vs. less densely populated areas of Vienna. Samples from the rural region of Wolkersdorf had significantly higher overall parasite, Trichuris and Cystoisospora prevalences than the peri-urban Mödling district and Vienna (p

  16. Toxocara infection in the United States: the relevance of poverty, geography and demography as risk factors, and implications for estimating county prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter; Lloyd, Patsy

    2011-02-01

    To estimate Toxocara infection rates by age, gender and ethnicity for US counties using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). After initial analysis to account for missing data, a binary regression model is applied to obtain relative risks of Toxocara infection for 20,396 survey subjects. The regression incorporates interplay between demographic attributes (age, ethnicity and gender), family poverty and geographic context (region, metropolitan status). Prevalence estimates for counties are then made, distinguishing between subpopulations in poverty and not in poverty. Even after allowing for elevated infection risk associated with poverty, seropositivity is elevated among Black non-Hispanics and other ethnic groups. There are also distinct effects of region. When regression results are translated into county prevalence estimates, the main influences on variation in county rates are percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks and county poverty. For targeting prevention it is important to assess implications of national survey data for small area prevalence. Using data from NHANES, the study confirms that both individual level risk factors and geographic contextual factors affect chances of Toxocara infection.

  17. Changes in hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control rates in Turkey from 2003 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengul, Sule; Akpolat, Tekin; Erdem, Yunus; Derici, Ulver; Arici, Mustafa; Sindel, Sukru; Karatan, Oktay; Turgan, Cetin; Hasanoglu, Enver; Caglar, Sali; Erturk, Sehsuvar

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: The study aimed to assess the current epidemiology of hypertension, including its prevalence, the awareness of the condition and its treatment and control, in Turkey to evaluate changes in these factors over the last 10 years by comparing the results with the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in Turkey (PatenT) study data (2003), as well as to assess parameters affecting awareness and the control of hypertension. Methods: The PatenT 2 study was conducted on a representative sample of the Turkish adult population (n = 5437) in 2012. Specifically trained staff performed the data collection. Hypertension was defined as mean SBP or DBP at least 140/90 mmHg, previously diagnosed disease or the use of antihypertensive medication. Awareness and treatment were assessed by self-reporting, and control was defined as SBP/DBP less than 140/90 mmHg. Results: Although the prevalence of hypertension in the PatenT and PatenT 2 surveys was stable at approximately 30%, hypertension awareness, treatment, and control rates have improved in Turkey. Overall, 54.7% of hypertensive patients were aware of their diagnosis in 2012 compared with 40.7% in 2003. The hypertension treatment rate increased from 31.1% in 2003 to 47.4% in 2012, and the control rate in hypertensives increased from 8.1% in 2003 to 28.7% in 2012. The rate of hypertension control in treated patients improved between 2003 (20.7%) and 2012 (53.9%). Awareness of hypertension was positively associated with older age, being a woman, residing in an urban area, a history of parental hypertension, being a nonsmoker, admittance by a physician, presence of diabetes mellitus, and being obese or overweight; it was inversely associated with a higher amount of daily bread consumption. Factors associated with better control of hypertension were younger age, female sex, residing in an urban area, and higher education level in Turkey. Conclusion: Although some progress has been made in

  18. Estimation of unemployment rates using small area estimation model by combining time series and cross-sectional data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchlisoh, Siti; Kurnia, Anang; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mangku, I. Wayan

    2016-02-01

    Labor force surveys conducted over time by the rotating panel design have been carried out in many countries, including Indonesia. Labor force survey in Indonesia is regularly conducted by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik-BPS) and has been known as the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas). The main purpose of Sakernas is to obtain information about unemployment rates and its changes over time. Sakernas is a quarterly survey. The quarterly survey is designed only for estimating the parameters at the provincial level. The quarterly unemployment rate published by BPS (official statistics) is calculated based on only cross-sectional methods, despite the fact that the data is collected under rotating panel design. The study purpose to estimate a quarterly unemployment rate at the district level used small area estimation (SAE) model by combining time series and cross-sectional data. The study focused on the application and comparison between the Rao-Yu model and dynamic model in context estimating the unemployment rate based on a rotating panel survey. The goodness of fit of both models was almost similar. Both models produced an almost similar estimation and better than direct estimation, but the dynamic model was more capable than the Rao-Yu model to capture a heterogeneity across area, although it was reduced over time.

  19. Psychotropic medication in the French child and adolescent population: prevalence estimation from health insurance data and national self-report survey data

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    Legleye Stéphane

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this work is to estimate the French frequencies of dispensed psychotropic prescriptions in children and adolescents. Prevalence estimations of dispensed prescriptions are compared to the frequencies of use of psychotropic reported by 17 year-old adolescents. Methods Prescription data is derived from national health insurance databases. Frequencies of dispensed prescriptions are extrapolated to estimate a range for the 2004 national rates. Self-report data is derived from the 2003 and 2005 ESCAPAD study, an epidemiological study based on a questionnaire focused on health and drug consumption. Results The prevalence estimation shows that the prevalence of prescription of a psychotropic medication to young persons between 3 and 18 years is about 2.2%. In 2005, the self-report study (ESCAPAD shows that 14.9% of 17 year-old adolescents took medication for "nerves" or "to sleep" during the previous 12 months. The same study in 2003 also shows that 62.3% of adolescents aged 17 and 18 reporting psychotropic use, took the medication for anxiety and 56.8% to sleep. Only 49.7% of these medications are suggested by a doctor. Conclusion This study underlines a similar range of prevalence of psychotropic prescriptions in France to that observed in other European countries. Nevertheless, the proportion of antipsychotics and benzodiazepines seems to be higher, whereas the proportion of methylphenidate is lower. Secondly, a disparity between the prevalence of dispensed prescriptions and the self-report of actual use of psychotropics has been highlighted by the ESCAPAD study which shows that these treatments are widely used as "self-medication".

  20. Analysis of HIV early infant diagnosis data to estimate rates of perinatal HIV transmission in Zambia.

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    Kwasi Torpey

    Full Text Available Mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT remains the most prevalent source of pediatric HIV infection. Most PMTCT (prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV programs have concentrated monitoring and evaluation efforts on process rather than on outcome indicators. In this paper, we review service data from 28,320 children born to HIV-positive mothers to estimate MTCT rates.This study analyzed DNA PCR results and PMTCT data from perinatally exposed children zero to 12 months of age from five Zambian provinces between September 2007 and July 2010.The majority of children (58.6% had a PCR test conducted between age six weeks and six months. Exclusive breastfeeding (56.8% was the most frequent feeding method. An estimated 45.9% of mothers were below 30 years old and 93.3% had disclosed their HIV status. In terms of ARV regimen for PMTCT, 32.7% received AZT+single dose NVP (sdNVP, 30.9% received highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART, 19.6% received sdNVP only and 12.9% received no ARVs. Transmission rates at six weeks when ARVs were received by both mother and baby, mother only, baby only, and none were 5.8%, 10.5%, 15.8% and 21.8% respectively. Transmission rates at six weeks where mother received HAART, AZT+sd NVP, sdNVP, and no intervention were 4.2%, 6.8%, 8.7% and 20.1% respectively. Based on adjusted analysis including ARV exposures and non ARV-related parameters, lower rates of positive PCR results were associated with 1 both mother and infant receiving prophylaxis, 2 children never breastfed and 3 mother being 30 years old or greater. Overall between September 2007 and July 2010, 12.2% of PCR results were HIV positive. Between September 2007 and January 2009, then between February 2009 and July 2010, proportions of positive PCR results were 15.1% and 11% respectively, a significant difference.The use of ARV drugs reduces vertical transmission of HIV in a program setting. Non-chemoprophylactic factors also play a significant

  1. Investigation of the existing methodology of value estimation and methods of discount rate estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Plikus, Iryna

    2017-01-01

    The subject of research is the current practice of determining the fair value of assets and liabilities at the present (discounted) cost. One of the most problematic places is the determination of the discount rate, which belongs to the jurisdiction of a professional accountant judgment.The methods of formalization, hypothetical assumption, system approach and scientific abstraction in substantiating the formation of accounting policy with respect to the choice of the discount rate are used i...

  2. Prevalence rate of post-traumatic stress disorders (PTSD and other psychological disorders among Saudi firefighters

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    Mohammed Alghamd

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Firefighters have a high probability of being exposed to a variety of traumatic events. Potentially traumatic events can occur during a single rescue such as: providing aid to seriously injured or helpless victims. Moreover, firefighters who are injured in the line of duty may have to retire as a consequence of their injury. The psychological cost of this exposure may increase the risk of long-term problems, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD symptoms, depression, and anxiety. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of PTSD symptoms, depression, anxiety, and assess related variables such as coping strategies and social support among Saudi firefighters. Method: Two hundred firefighters completed the Fire-fighter Trauma History Screen (FTHS to measure the number of traumatic events, Screen for Post-traumatic Stress Symptoms (SPTSS scale to assess the prevalence of PTSD symptoms, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scales (HADS to assess depression and anxiety, Brief Cope (BC scale to measure coping strategies used, and Social Support scale was used to evaluate the firefighter's support received. Results: The results showed that 84% (169/200 of firefighters were exposed to at least one traumatic event. The result presented that 57% (96/169 of exposure firefighters fully met the DSM-IV criteria for PTSD with high levels of depression and anxiety; 39% (66/169 partially met the PTSD criteria. However, only 4% participants have not met the PTSD criteria. The results also revealed that adaptive coping strategies and higher perceived social support was associated with lower levels of PTSD. Conclusion: The high prevalence rate of PTSD related to the type and severity of the traumatic events and years of experience in the job. Accordingly, many firefighters were severely affected by their experiences, and we should be developing methods to help them.

  3. Alpha-1 antitrypsin Pi*SZ genotype: estimated prevalence and number of SZ subjects worldwide

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    Blanco I

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ignacio Blanco,1 Patricia Bueno,2 Isidro Diego,3 Sergio Pérez-Holanda,4 Beatriz Lara,5 Francisco Casas-Maldonado,6 Cristina Esquinas,7 Marc Miravitlles7,8 1Alpha1-Antitrypsin Deficiency Spanish Registry (REDAAT, Lung Foundation Breathe, Spanish Society of Pneumology (SEPAR, Barcelona, Spain; 2Internal Medicine Department, County Hospital of Jarrio, Principality of Asturias, Spain; 3Materials and Energy Department, School of Mining Engineering, Oviedo University, Principality of Asturias, Spain; 4Surgical Department, University Central Hospital of Asturias, Oviedo, Spain; 5Respiratory Medicine Department, Coventry and Warwickshire University Hospital, Coventry, UK; 6Pneumology Department, University Hospital San Cecilio, Granada, Spain; 7Pneumology Department, Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron, Barcelona, Spain; 8CIBER de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES, Barcelona, Spain Abstract: The alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT haplotype Pi*S, when inherited along with the Pi*Z haplotype to form a Pi*SZ genotype, can be associated with pulmonary emphysema in regular smokers, and less frequently with liver disease, panniculitis, and systemic vasculitis in a small percentage of people, but this connection is less well established. Since the detection of cases can allow the application of preventive measures in patients and relatives with this congenital disorder, the objective of this study was to update the prevalence of the SZ genotype to achieve accurate estimates of the number of Pi*SZ subjects worldwide, based on studies performed according to the following criteria: 1 samples representative of the general population, 2 AAT phenotyping characterized by adequate methods, and 3 selection of studies with reliable results assessed with a coefficient of variation calculated from the sample size and 95% confidence intervals. Studies fulfilling these criteria were used to develop tables and maps with an inverse distance-weighted (IDW interpolation method, to

  4. Common cause failure rate estimates for diesel generators in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steverson, J.A.; Atwood, C.L.

    1982-01-01

    Common cause fault rates for diesel generators in nuclear power plants are estimated, using Licensee Event Reports for the years 1976 through 1978. The binomial failure rate method, used for obtaining the estimates, is briefly explained. Issues discussed include correct classification of common cause events, grouping of the events into homogeneous data subsets, and dealing with plant-to-plant variation

  5. Estimating reaction rate constants: comparison between traditional curve fitting and curve resolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, S.; Boelens, H. F. M.; Hoefsloot, H. C. J.; Smilde, A. K.

    2000-01-01

    A traditional curve fitting (TCF) algorithm is compared with a classical curve resolution (CCR) approach for estimating reaction rate constants from spectral data obtained in time of a chemical reaction. In the TCF algorithm, reaction rate constants an estimated from the absorbance versus time data

  6. Genetic analysis of rare disorders: Bayesian estimation of twin concordance rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Hjelmborg, J.

    2012-01-01

    Twin concordance rates provide insight into the possibility of a genetic background for a disease. These concordance rates are usually estimated within a frequentistic framework. Here we take a Bayesian approach. For rare diseases, estimation methods based on asymptotic theory cannot be applied due

  7. The impact of height during childhood on the national prevalence rates of overweight.

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    Paula van Dommelen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: It is known that height and body mass index (BMI are correlated in childhood. However, its impact on the (trend of national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity has never been investigated. The aim of our study is to investigate the relation between height and national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in childhood between 1980, 1997, and 2009, and to calculate which fixed value of p (2.0,2.1, …,3.0 in kg/m(p during childhood is most accurate in predicting adult overweight. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Cross-sectional growth data of children from three Dutch nationwide surveys in 1980, 1997, and 2009, and longitudinal data from the Terneuzen Birth Cohort and the Harpenden Growth Study were used. Relative risks (RR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated. Our study showed that tall (>1 standard deviation (SD girls aged 5.0-13.9 y were more often overweight (RR = 3.5,95%CI:2.8-4.4 and obese (RR = 3.9,95%CI:2.1-7.4 than short girls (<-1 SD. Similar results were found in boys aged 5.0-14.9 y (RR = 4.4,95%CI:3.4-5.7 and RR = 5.3,95%CI:2.6-11.0. No large differences were found in the other age groups and in comparison with children with an average stature. Tall boys aged 2.0-4.9 y had a significantly higher positive trend in overweight between 1980 and 1997 compared to short boys (RR = 4.0,95%CI:1.38-11.9. For other age groups and in girls, no significant trends were found. The optimal Area Under the Curve (AUC to predict adult overweight was found for p = 2.0. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Tall girls aged 5.0-13.9y and tall boys aged 5.0-14.9y have much higher prevalence rates of overweight and obesity than their shorter peers. We suggest taking into account the impact of height when evaluating trends and variations of BMI distributions in childhood, and to use BMI to predict adult overweight.

  8. Study Heterogeneity and Estimation of Prevalence of Primary Aldosteronism: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Käyser, Sabine C; Dekkers, Tanja; Groenewoud, Hans J; van der Wilt, Gert Jan; Carel Bakx, J; van der Wel, Mark C; Hermus, Ad R; Lenders, Jacques W; Deinum, Jaap

    2016-07-01

    For health care planning and allocation of resources, realistic estimation of the prevalence of primary aldosteronism is necessary. Reported prevalences of primary aldosteronism are highly variable, possibly due to study heterogeneity. Our objective was to identify and explain heterogeneity in studies that aimed to establish the prevalence of primary aldosteronism in hypertensive patients. PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and reference lists from January 1, 1990, to January 31, 2015, were used as data sources. Description of an adult hypertensive patient population with confirmed diagnosis of primary aldosteronism was included in this study. Dual extraction and quality assessment were the forms of data extraction. Thirty-nine studies provided data on 42 510 patients (nine studies, 5896 patients from primary care). Prevalence estimates varied from 3.2% to 12.7% in primary care and from 1% to 29.8% in referral centers. Heterogeneity was too high to establish point estimates (I(2) = 57.6% in primary care; 97.1% in referral centers). Meta-regression analysis showed higher prevalences in studies 1) published after 2000, 2) from Australia, 3) aimed at assessing prevalence of secondary hypertension, 4) that were retrospective, 5) that selected consecutive patients, and 6) not using a screening test. All studies had minor or major flaws. This study demonstrates that it is pointless to claim low or high prevalence of primary aldosteronism based on published reports. Because of the significant impact of a diagnosis of primary aldosteronism on health care resources and the necessary facilities, our findings urge for a prevalence study whose design takes into account the factors identified in the meta-regression analysis.

  9. The effect of somatic symptom attribution on the prevalence rate of depression and anxiety among nursing home patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smalbrugge, Martin; Pot, Anne Margriet; Jongenelis, Lineke; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Eefsting, Jan A

    2005-01-01

    The validity of diagnostic psychiatric instruments for depression and anxiety disorders may be compromised among patients with complex physical illness and disability. The objective of this study was to determine the effect on the prevalence rate of depression and anxiety in a nursing home population of attributing somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety to either somatic or psychiatric disorder. Symptoms of major depression (MD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and panic disorder (PD) were measured using the Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry (SCAN). Somatic symptoms of MD, GAD and PD were attributed to somatic causes when the interviewer was not sure about a psychiatric cause. To analyse the effect of this attribution on the prevalence rate of MD, GAD and PD, a sensitivity analysis was undertaken in which symptoms that were attributed to somatic causes were recoded as symptoms attributed to psychiatric disorder. Prevalence rates of MD, GAD and PD were calculated before and after recoding. The prevalence of MD after recoding rose from 7.5% to 8.1%. The prevalence of GAD did not change. The prevalence of PD rose from 1.5% to 1.8%. Attribution of somatic symptoms to either somatic or psychiatric disorder when the interviewer was not sure about a psychiatric cause of the somatic symptoms had only a very modest effect on the prevalence rate of major depression, generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder in a nursing home population.

  10. HIV infection among foreign transsexual sex workers in Rome: prevalence, behavior patterns, and seroconversion rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, L; Zaccarelli, M; Rezza, G; Ippolito, G; Antinori, A; Gattari, P

    2001-07-01

    The Azienda Sanitaria Locale Roma E (ASL-RME) outpatient clinic is the main reference center in Rome for HIV testing of foreign people. To define the prevalence and incidence of HIV infection among foreign transsexual sex workers attending the center. A cross-sectional, follow-up study was conducted. Between 1993 and 1999, 353 transsexuals attended the ASL-RME. They were from Colombia (n = 208), Brazil (n = 122), and other countries (n = 23). Most of these transsexuals reported having 5 to 10 partners per day. The overall HIV prevalence was 38.2%, which multivariate analysis found to be associated with origin from Brazil and a higher number of sex partners. The observed HIV seroconversion rate was 4.1 per 100 person-years, and non-regular condom use was the only factor related to seroconversion. The data from this study suggest that promotion of safer sex practices and regular condom use still is the main priority among marginalized population subgroups, such as foreign prostitutes, involved in sex activities that put them at risk for HIV infection.

  11. Prevalence rates and socioeconomic characteristics of post-partum depression in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Emese; Molnar, Peter; Pal, Attila; Orvos, Hajnalka

    2011-01-30

    The rapid socioeconomic transition in post-communist Hungary adversely affected the overall morbidity and mortality rates in the 1990s. Prevalence data on depressive disorders from the region are still scarce, however. This study reports the findings of the first epidemiological survey, using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), on the prevalence of post-partum depression and the associated risk factors in Hungary. A total of 1030 mothers who delivered their babies between May and July 1999 in 16 counties in Hungary were screened for depressive symptoms 3-26 weeks post-partum. The survey found that 10.81% of the sample was above the cut-off score of 13, and the EPDS detected post-partum depressive symptoms with 76% (95% confidence interval (CI)=60.5-87.1) sensitivity and 92% (95% CI=90.5-94.1) specificity. In addition, 24 socio-demographic, socio-psychiatric data and personal and obstetric variables were surveyed. Results of a hierarchical logistic regression analysis showed that depression of the mother during pregnancy was the strongest predictor of depressive symptoms post-partum. Depression before pregnancy, housing conditions, marital relationship status and family history of alcohol problems were also identified as predictors for post-partum depressive symptoms. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimating evolutionary rates using time-structured data: a general comparison of phylogenetic methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchêne, Sebastián; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holmes, Edward C; Ho, Simon Y W

    2016-11-15

    In rapidly evolving pathogens, including viruses and some bacteria, genetic change can accumulate over short time-frames. Accordingly, their sampling times can be used to calibrate molecular clocks, allowing estimation of evolutionary rates. Methods for estimating rates from time-structured data vary in how they treat phylogenetic uncertainty and rate variation among lineages. We compiled 81 virus data sets and estimated nucleotide substitution rates using root-to-tip regression, least-squares dating and Bayesian inference. Although estimates from these three methods were often congruent, this largely relied on the choice of clock model. In particular, relaxed-clock models tended to produce higher rate estimates than methods that assume constant rates. Discrepancies in rate estimates were also associated with high among-lineage rate variation, and phylogenetic and temporal clustering. These results provide insights into the factors that affect the reliability of rate estimates from time-structured sequence data, emphasizing the importance of clock-model testing. sduchene@unimelb.edu.au or garzonsebastian@hotmail.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Dying for a smoke: how much does differential mortality of smokers affect estimated life-course smoking prevalence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopoulou, Rebekka; Han, Jeffrey; Jaber, Ahmed; Lillard, Dean R

    2011-01-01

    An extensive literature uses reconstructed historical smoking rates by birth-cohort to inform anti-smoking policies. This paper examines whether and how these rates change when one adjusts for differential mortality of smokers and non-smokers. Using retrospectively reported data from the US (Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1986, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005), the UK (British Household Panel Survey, 1999, 2002), and Russia (Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Study, 2000), we generate life-course smoking prevalence rates by age-cohort. With cause-specific death rates from secondary sources and an improved method, we correct for differential mortality, and we test whether adjusted and unadjusted rates statistically differ. With US data (National Health Interview Survey, 1967-2004), we also compare contemporaneously measured smoking prevalence rates with the equivalent rates from retrospective data. We find that differential mortality matters only for men. For Russian men over age 70 and US and UK men over age 80 unadjusted smoking prevalence understates the true prevalence. The results using retrospective and contemporaneous data are similar. Differential mortality bias affects our understanding of smoking habits of old cohorts and, therefore, of inter-generational patterns of smoking. Unless one focuses on the young, policy recommendations based on unadjusted smoking rates may be misleading. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Prevalence of sinus floor elevation procedures and survival rates of implants placed in the posterior maxilla

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceyda Ozçakır Tomruk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of sinus-lifting procedures and survival rates of implants placed in the posterior maxilla. This retrospective chart review examined consecutive patients with tooth/teeth loss in the posterior maxilla between 2008 and 2012 treated with sinus lift, when needed, and implant insertion. Demographic variables, health status, residual alveolar bone height, augmentation types, the implant position, diameter and height, and implant failure, prosthesis types, and the marginal bone loss were recorded. The study included 302 patients at a mean age of 5.2 years, who received a total of 609 dental implants. A total of 380 (62.3% implants were inserted in native areas, 203 (33.3% ones in external sinus-lifted areas and 26 (4.4% ones in internal lifted areas. The survival rate in native or internal lifted areas were 100% and 95.6% in external sinus lifted ones (10 implant failures/203 implants. Almost half of the implants were examined radiologically with a mean duration of 30 months and the mean marginal bone loss was 0.64 ± 1.2 mm. The results showed that the survival rates of native bone and the internal sinus lifting were slightly higher than that of external sinus lifting. Implants placed with sinus augmentation exhibited more marginal bone loss than implants in native bone.

  15. Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

    2003-10-01

    Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.

  16. Applied Prevalence Ratio estimation with different Regression models: An example from a cross-national study on substance use research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina

    2016-06-14

    To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.

  17. Variability of glomerular filtration rate estimation equations in elderly Chinese patients with chronic kidney disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu X

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Xun Liu,1,2,* Mu-hua Cheng,3,* Cheng-gang Shi,1 Cheng Wang,1 Cai-lian Cheng,1 Jin-xia Chen,1 Hua Tang,1 Zhu-jiang Chen,1 Zeng-chun Ye,1 Tan-qi Lou11Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yet-sun University, Guangzhou, China; 2College of Biology Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China; 3Department of Nuclear Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yet-sun University, Guangzhou, China *These authors contributed equally to this paperBackground: Chronic kidney disease (CKD is recognized worldwide as a public health problem, and its prevalence increases as the population ages. However, the applicability of formulas for estimating the glomerular filtration rate (GFR based on serum creatinine (SC levels in elderly Chinese patients with CKD is limited.Materials and methods: Based on values obtained with the technetium-99m diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (99mTc-DTPA renal dynamic imaging method, 319 elderly Chinese patients with CKD were enrolled in this study. Serum creatinine was determined by the enzymatic method. The GFR was estimated using the Cockroft–Gault (CG equation, the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD equations, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI equation, the Jelliffe-1973 equation, and the Hull equation.Results: The median of difference ranged from −0.3–4.3 mL/min/1.73 m2. The interquartile range (IQR of differences ranged from 13.9–17.6 mL/min/1.73 m2. Accuracy with a deviation less than 15% ranged from 27.6%–32.9%. Accuracy with a deviation less than 30% ranged from 53.6%–57.7%. Accuracy with a deviation less than 50% ranged from 74.9%–81.5%. None of the equations had accuracy up to the 70% level with a deviation less than 30% from the standard glomerular filtration rate (sGFR. Bland–Altman analysis demonstrated that the mean difference ranged from −3.0–2.4 mL/min/1.73 m2. However, the

  18. The trend of pressure ulcer prevalence rates in German hospitals: results of seven cross-sectional studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottner, Jan; Wilborn, Doris; Dassen, Theo; Lahmann, Nils

    2009-05-01

    Pressure ulcer prevalence rates provide useful information about the magnitude of this health problem. Only limited information on pressure ulcers in Germany was available before 2001. The purpose of this study was to compare results of seven pressure ulcer prevalence surveys which were conducted annually between 2001 and 2007 and to explore whether pressure ulcer prevalence rates decreased. The second aim was to evaluate if the measured prevalence rates of our sample could be generalised for all German hospitals. Results of seven point pressure ulcer prevalence studies conducted in 225 German hospitals were analysed. Chi-square tests, chi-square trend tests and one-way ANOVA to assess differences and trends across the years were applied. The sample was stratified according to pressure ulcer risk and speciality. Finally, study samples were compared with the potential population. In total data of 40,247 hospital patients were analysed. The overall pressure ulcer prevalence rate in German hospitals was 10.2%. Patient samples of each year were comparable regarding gender, age and pressure ulcer risk. Pressure ulcer prevalence rates decreased from 13.9% (year 2001) to 7.3% (year 2007) (pcare units remained stable. With some limitations our study results are representative for all hospitals within Germany. It is highly probable that the decrease of prevalence rates was due to an increased awareness of the pressure ulcer problem in Germany and subsequent efforts to improve pressure ulcer prevention and treatment. The quality of clinical practice regarding pressure ulcer prevention and treatment has improved. However, pressure ulcers are still relevant and require attention. In 2007, one out of 10 hospital patients who were at pressure ulcer risk had at least one pressure related skin damage.

  19. Current use of equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate in Spanish laboratories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gràcia-Garcia, Sílvia; Montañés-Bermúdez, Rosario; Morales-García, Luis J; Díez-de Los Ríos, M José; Jiménez-García, Juan Á; Macías-Blanco, Carlos; Martínez-López, Rosalina; Ruiz-Altarejos, Joaquín; Ruiz-Martín, Guadalupe; Sanz-Hernández, Sonia; Ventura-Pedret, Salvador

    2012-07-17

    In 2006 the Spanish Society of Clinical Biochemistry and Molecular Pathology (SEQC) and the Spanish Society of Nephrology (S.E.N.) developed a consensus document in order to facilitate the diagnosis and monitoring of chronic kidney disease with the incorporation of equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) into laboratory reports. The current national prevalence of eGFR reporting and the degree of adherence to these recommendations among clinical laboratories is unknown. We administered a national survey in 2010-11 to Spanish clinical laboratories. The survey was through e-mail or telephone to laboratories that participated in the SEQC’s Programme for External Quality Assurance, included in the National Hospitals Catalogue 2010, including both primary care and private laboratories. A total of 281 laboratories answered to the survey. Of these, 88.2% reported on the eGFR, with 61.9% reporting on the MDRD equation and 31.6% using the MDRD-IDMS equation. A total of 42.5% of laboratories always reported serum creatinine values, and other variables only when specifically requested. Regarding the way results were presented, 46.2% of laboratories reported the exact numerical value only when the filtration rate was below 60mL/min/1.73m2, while 50.6% reported all values regardless. In 56.3% of the cases reporting eGFR, an interpretive commentary of it was enclosed. Although a high percentage of Spanish laboratories have added eGFR in their reports, this metric is not universally used. Moreover, some aspects, such as the equation used and the correct expression of eGFR results, should be improved.

  20. Microcephaly Case Fatality Rate Associated with Zika Virus Infection in Brazil: Current Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, Antonio José Ledo Alves da; de Magalhães-Barbosa, Maria Clara; Lima-Setta, Fernanda; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade; Prata-Barbosa, Arnaldo

    2017-05-01

    Considering the currently confirmed cases of microcephaly and related deaths associated with Zika virus in Brazil, the estimated case fatality rate is 8.3% (95% confidence interval: 7.2-9.6). However, a third of the reported cases remain under investigation. If the confirmation rates of cases and deaths are the same in the future, the estimated case fatality rate will be as high as 10.5% (95% confidence interval: 9.5-11.7).

  1. Child mortality estimation: consistency of under-five mortality rate estimates using full birth histories and summary birth histories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romesh Silva

    Full Text Available Given the lack of complete vital registration data in most developing countries, for many countries it is not possible to accurately estimate under-five mortality rates from vital registration systems. Heavy reliance is often placed on direct and indirect methods for analyzing data collected from birth histories to estimate under-five mortality rates. Yet few systematic comparisons of these methods have been undertaken. This paper investigates whether analysts should use both direct and indirect estimates from full birth histories, and under what circumstances indirect estimates derived from summary birth histories should be used.Usings Demographic and Health Surveys data from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia, I quantify the differences between direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates, analyze data quality issues, note the relative effects of these issues, and test whether these issues explain the observed differences. I find that indirect estimates are generally consistent with direct estimates, after adjustment for fertility change and birth transference, but don't add substantial additional insight beyond direct estimates. However, choice of direct or indirect method was found to be important in terms of both the adjustment for data errors and the assumptions made about fertility.Although adjusted indirect estimates are generally consistent with adjusted direct estimates, some notable inconsistencies were observed for countries that had experienced either a political or economic crisis or stalled health transition in their recent past. This result suggests that when a population has experienced a smooth mortality decline or only short periods of excess mortality, both adjusted methods perform equally well. However, the observed inconsistencies identified suggest that the indirect method is particularly prone to bias resulting from violations of its strong assumptions about recent mortality

  2. Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

  3. Hemoglobin correction factors for estimating the prevalence of iron deficiency anemia in pregnant women residing at high altitudes in Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Hadary Cohen

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available This study had two primary objectives: 1 to derive a method to determine hemoglobin cutoffs that could be used to better estimate the prevalence of iron deficiency anemia in pregnancy at high altitudes and 2 to estimate the prevalence of anemia in a sample of pregnant women residing in two cities in Bolivia, La Paz (3 600 meters and El Alto (4 000 meters. We derived a hemoglobin-altitude curve from previously published data on the mean hemoglobin concentrations of nonanemic women of childbearing age at various altitudes. In addition, we abstracted data on hemoglobin concentration during pregnancy from medical records of women from La Paz and El Alto who had given birth at a maternity hospital in La Paz between January and June of 1996. Using our approach and two other previously published, currently used methods, we calculated and compared prevalences of iron deficiency anemia in this population using hemoglobin cutoffs determined from a hemoglobin-altitude curve corrected for pregnancy. The hemoglobin-altitude curve derived in this study provided a better fit to data for women of childbearing age than the two other models. Those models used cutoffs based on non-iron-replete populations of children or men, both of which were residing below 4 000 m, and then extrapolated to women and higher altitudes. The estimated prevalences of iron deficiency anemia in pregnancy using the hemoglobin cutoffs determined in this study were higher than those estimated by the two other approaches.

  4. Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using a bounded-data-uncertainty approach

    KAUST Repository

    Ballal, Tarig

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce P observations. These observations are exploited to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC operates at a rate that is P times less. To avoid loss of fidelity, the interpulse interval, given in units of sampling periods of the desired rate, is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this situation and to achieve good performance without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. This estimator is shown to be related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. The performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme was tested in conjunction with the new estimator. It is shown that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in most cases; while in the high SNR regime, it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. © 2014 IEEE.

  5. Convergence Rate Analysis of Distributed Gossip (Linear Parameter) Estimation: Fundamental Limits and Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, Soummya; Moura, José M. F.

    2011-08-01

    The paper considers gossip distributed estimation of a (static) distributed random field (a.k.a., large scale unknown parameter vector) observed by sparsely interconnected sensors, each of which only observes a small fraction of the field. We consider linear distributed estimators whose structure combines the information \\emph{flow} among sensors (the \\emph{consensus} term resulting from the local gossiping exchange among sensors when they are able to communicate) and the information \\emph{gathering} measured by the sensors (the \\emph{sensing} or \\emph{innovations} term.) This leads to mixed time scale algorithms--one time scale associated with the consensus and the other with the innovations. The paper establishes a distributed observability condition (global observability plus mean connectedness) under which the distributed estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal. We introduce the distributed notion equivalent to the (centralized) Fisher information rate, which is a bound on the mean square error reduction rate of any distributed estimator; we show that under the appropriate modeling and structural network communication conditions (gossip protocol) the distributed gossip estimator attains this distributed Fisher information rate, asymptotically achieving the performance of the optimal centralized estimator. Finally, we study the behavior of the distributed gossip estimator when the measurements fade (noise variance grows) with time; in particular, we consider the maximum rate at which the noise variance can grow and still the distributed estimator being consistent, by showing that, as long as the centralized estimator is consistent, the distributed estimator remains consistent.

  6. The reliability of grazing rate estimates from dilution experiments: Have we over-estimated rates of organic carbon consumption by microzooplankton?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Dolan,

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available According to a recent global analysis, microzooplankton grazing is surprisingly invariant, ranging only between 59 and 74% of phytoplankton primary production across systems differing in seasonality, trophic status, latitude, or salinity. Thus an important biological process in the world ocean, the daily consumption of recently fixed carbon, appears nearly constant. We believe this conclusion is an artefact because dilution experiments are 1 prone to providing over-estimates of grazing rates and 2 unlikely to furnish evidence of low grazing rates. In our view the overall average rate of microzooplankton grazing probably does not exceed 50% of primary production and may be even lower in oligotrophic systems.

  7. Updated prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in 4- to 10-year-old children in Germany. Results from the telephone-based KiGGS Wave 1 after correction for bias in parental reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brettschneider, Anna-Kristin; Schienkiewitz, Anja; Schmidt, Steffen; Ellert, Ute; Kurth, Bärbel-Maria

    2017-04-01

    The nationwide 'German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents' (KiGGS), conducted in 2003-2006, showed an increase in the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity compared to the early 1990s, indicating the need for regular monitoring. Recently, a follow-up-KiGGS Wave 1 (2009-2012)-was carried out as a telephone-based survey, providing parent-reported height and weight from 5155 children aged 4-10 years. Since parental reports lead to a bias in prevalence rates of weight status, a correction is needed. From a subsample of KiGGS Wave 1 participants, measurements for height and weight were collected in a physical examination. In order to correct prevalence rates derived from parent reports, weight status categories based on parent-reported and measured height and weight were used to estimate a correction formula according to an established procedure. The corrected prevalence rates derived from KiGGS Wave 1 for overweight, including obesity, in children aged 4-10 years in Germany showed that stagnation is reached compared to the KiGGS baseline study (2003-2006). The rates for overweight, including obesity, in Germany have levelled off. However, they still remain at a high level, indicating a need for further public health action. What is Known: • In the last decades, prevalence of overweight and obesity has risen. Now a days, the prevalence seems to be stagnating. • In Germany, prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity are only available from regional or non-representative studies. What is New: • This article gives an update for prevalence rates of overweight and obesity amongst children aged 4-10 years in Germany based on a nationwide and representative sample. • Results show that stagnation in prevalence rates for overweight in children in Germany is reached.

  8. Estimating Infiltration Rates for a Loessal Silt Loam Using Soil Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Dean Knighton

    1978-01-01

    Soil properties were related to infiltration rates as measured by single-ringsteady-head infiltometers. The properties showing strong simple correlations were identified. Regression models were developed to estimate infiltration rate from several soil properties. The best model gave fair agreement to measured rates at another location.

  9. Estimation of the rate of energy production of rat mast cells in vitro

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Torben

    1983-01-01

    Rat mast cells were treated with glycolytic and respiratory inhibitors. The rate of adenosine triphosphate depletion of cells incubated with both types of inhibitors and the rate of lactate produced in presence of antimycin A and glucose were used to estimate the rate of oxidative and glycolytic...

  10. Interrelation between the prevalence rate of suicides and the length of working hours

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Korotkov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available It is known that overworking as well as deficiency of work (plenty of free time are major factors of a suicide on an individual level which allows when passing to the level of a real social group (employees to suppose of existence of a certain optimum of working time or a parabolic (U-shaped connection between the suicide rate and an average duration of working time. From the theoretical point of view the supposed parabolic dependence of the level of prevalence of suicides from an average duration of working time of employees is described from the point of view of suicidology: excessive increase of working time is an external tendency which prevents satisfaction of actual needs of an employee and limits physically the space (off-work time for their realization. Multidirectional tendencies form a life conflict which has crucial significance when transferring to a suicidal phase. The objective of this article consists in a qualitative assessment of an influence of “an average duration of working time” on the level of prevalence of suicides when other things are fixed (economic, social, religious and others in a relatively stable social situation. For the econometric analysis, reliable and comparable data of the European database of detailed mortality data of the World Health Organization and Eurostat are used for 22 European countries for the period from 1998 till 2012. Based on analysis of a dynamics of the studied variables different hypothesis have been made: 1 about existence of statistically significant linear or logarithmic dependence of the level of prevalence of suicides from an average factual duration of working time inside a country 2 about existence of a parabolic (U-shaped dependence of the level of prevalence of suicides from an average factual duration of working time between countries. A set of panel unit root tests and stationarity testify that the examined variables are unsteady variables with integratedness order I(1. The

  11. Clinical use of estimated glomerular filtration rate for evaluation of kidney function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Bo; Lindhardt, Morten; Rossing, Peter

    2013-01-01

    is a significant predictor for cardiovascular disease and may along with classical cardiovascular risk factors add useful information to risk estimation. Several cautions need to be taken into account, e.g. rapid changes in kidney function, dialysis, high age, obesity, underweight and diverging and unanticipated......Estimating glomerular filtration rate by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease or Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formulas gives a reasonable estimate of kidney function for e.g. classification of chronic kidney disease. Additionally the estimated glomerular filtration rate...

  12. Missing the Mark? A Two Time Point Cohort Study Estimating Intestinal Parasite Prevalence in Informal Settlements in Lima, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Michael Townsend; Searing, Rapha A; Thompson, David M; Bard, David; Carabin, Hélène; Gonzales, Carlos; Zavala, Carmen; Woodson, Kyle; Naifeh, Monique

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: The World Health Organization's (WHO) recommendations list Peru as potentially needing prevention of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). Prevalence of STH varies regionally and remains understudied in the newest informal settlements of the capital city, Lima. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the need for Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of antiparasitic drugs in the newest informal settlements of Lima. The aim of this study was to estimate the season-specific prevalence of STH to determine if these prevalence estimates met the WHO threshold for MDA in 3 informal settlements. Methods : A 2 time point cohort study was conducted among a sample of 140 children aged 1 to 10 years living in 3 purposively sampled informal settlements of Lima, Peru. Children were asked to provide 2 stool samples that were analyzed with the spontaneous sedimentation in tube technique. The season-specific prevalence proportions of MDA-targeted STH were estimated using a hidden (latent) Markov modeling approach to adjust for repeated measurements over the 2 seasons and the imperfect validity of the screening tests. Results : The prevalence of MDA targeted STH was low at 2.2% (95% confidence interval = 0.3% to 6%) and 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 0.7% to 9.3%) among children sampled in the summer and winter months, respectively, when using the most conservative estimate of test sensitivity. These estimates were below the WHO threshold for MDA (20%). Conclusions : Empiric treatment for STH by organizations active in the newest informal settlements is not supported by the data and could contribute to unnecessary medication exposures and poor allocation of resources.

  13. Inverse problem of estimating transient heat transfer rate on external wall of forced convection pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, W.-L.; Yang, Y.-C.; Chang, W.-J.; Lee, H.-L.

    2008-01-01

    In this study, a conjugate gradient method based inverse algorithm is applied to estimate the unknown space and time dependent heat transfer rate on the external wall of a pipe system using temperature measurements. It is assumed that no prior information is available on the functional form of the unknown heat transfer rate; hence, the procedure is classified as function estimation in the inverse calculation. The accuracy of the inverse analysis is examined by using simulated exact and inexact temperature measurements. Results show that an excellent estimation of the space and time dependent heat transfer rate can be obtained for the test case considered in this study

  14. The impact of urbanization and population density on childhood Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence rates in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaria, Caroline W; Gilbert, Marius; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

    2017-01-26

    Although malaria has been traditionally regarded as less of a problem in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas, the risk of malaria infection continues to exist in densely populated, urban areas of Africa. Despite the recognition that urbanization influences the epidemiology of malaria, there is little consensus on urbanization relevant for malaria parasite mapping. Previous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and malaria transmission have used products defining urbanization at global/continental scales developed in the early 2000s, that overestimate actual urban extents while the population estimates are over 15 years old and estimated at administrative unit level. This study sought to discriminate an urbanization definition that is most relevant for malaria parasite mapping using individual level malaria infection data obtained from nationally representative household-based surveys. Boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to determine the effect of urbanization on malaria transmission and if this effect varied with urbanization definition. In addition, the most recent high resolution population distribution data was used to determine whether population density had significant effect on malaria parasite prevalence and if so, could population density replace urban classifications in modelling malaria transmission patterns. The risk of malaria infection was shown to decline from rural areas through peri-urban settlements to urban central areas. Population density was found to be an important predictor of malaria risk. The final boosted regression trees (BRT) model with urbanization and population density gave the best model fit (Tukey test p value <0.05) compared to the models with urbanization only. Given the challenges in uniformly classifying urban areas across different countries, population density provides a reliable metric to adjust for the patterns of malaria risk in densely populated urban areas. Future malaria risk

  15. Call for early prevention: prevalence rates of overweight among Turkish and Moroccan children in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dommelen, Paula; Schönbeck, Yvonne; HiraSing, Remy A; van Buuren, Stef

    2015-10-01

    Monitoring overweight in risk groups is necessary. Our aim is to assess the trend in overweight and obesity in Turkish and Moroccan children in the Netherlands since 1997 and to monitor the levels of lifestyle-related behaviours in 2009. We selected cross-sectional data of Turkish and Moroccan children aged 2-18 years from two national Growth Studies performed in 1997 and 2009 in the Netherlands. Lifestyle-related behaviours were obtained in the 2009 study by questionnaire. In 2009, 31.9% of Turkish and 26.6% of Moroccan children had overweight, whereas this was, respectively, 26.7% and 19.6% in 1997. Already at 2 years, 21.1% in Turkish and 22.7% in Moroccan children had overweight in 2009. The prevalence of obesity was above 4% from 3 years onwards. High (i.e. ≥ 25%) prevalence rates of unhealthy lifestyle-related behaviours were found for not having breakfast (26-49%) among Turkish and Moroccan adolescent (i.e. 15-18 years) girls, consuming no fruit (29-45%) and watching TV/PC ≥ 2 h (35-72%) among all Turkish and Moroccan adolescents, no walking/cycling to school/day care among preschool children (2-4 years) (28-56%) and adolescents (34-94%), drinking ≥ 2 glasses of sweet beverages (44-74%) and being children. An upward trend of overweight and obesity occurred in Turkish and Moroccan children. Already at 2 years of age, one out of five Turkish and Moroccan children had overweight, which calls for early prevention with attention to specific lifestyle-related behaviours. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  16. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  17. Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2011-01-01

    Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

  18. Self-harm: Prevalence estimates from the second Australian Child and Adolescent Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubrick, Stephen R; Hafekost, Jennifer; Johnson, Sarah E; Lawrence, David; Saw, Suzy; Sawyer, Michael; Ainley, John; Buckingham, William J

    2016-09-01

    To (1) estimate the lifetime and 12-month prevalence of self-harm without suicide intent in young people aged 12-17 years, (2) describe the co-morbidity of these behaviours with mental illness and (3) describe their co-variation with key social and demographic variables. A nationally representative random sample of households with children aged 4-17 years recruited in 2013-2014. The survey response rate was 55% with 6310 parents and carers of eligible households participating. In addition, 2967 (89%) of young people aged 11-17 completed a self-report questionnaire with 2653 of the 12- to 17-year-olds completing questions about self-harm behaviour. In any 12-month period, about 8% of all 12- to 17-year-olds (an estimated 137,000 12- to 17-year-olds) report engaging in self-harming behaviour without suicide intent. This prevalence increases with age to 11.6% in 16- to 17-year-olds. Eighteen percent (18.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = [14.5, 23.0]) of all 12- to 17-year-old young people with any mental health disorder measured by parent or carer report said that they had engaged in self-harm in the past 12 months. Among young people who were measured by self-report and met criteria for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders' major depressive disorder almost half (46.6%; 95% CI = [40.0, 53.1]) also reported that they had engaged in self-harm in the past 12 months. Suicide risk among those who self-harm is significantly elevated relative to the general population. The demonstrated higher risks in these young people for continued harm or possible death support the need for ongoing initiatives to reduce self-harm through mental health promotion, improved mental health literacy and continuing mental health reform to ensure services are accessible to, and meet the needs of families and young persons. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

  19. ICD-11 Prevalence Rates of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Complex Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in a German Nationwide Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maercker, Andreas; Hecker, Tobias; Augsburger, Mareike; Kliem, Sören

    2018-04-01

    Prevalence rates are still lacking for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and complex PTSD (CPTSD) diagnoses based on the new ICD-11 criteria. In a nationwide representative German sample (N = 2524; 14-99 years), exposure to traumatic events and symptoms of PTSD or CPTSD were assessed with the International Trauma Questionnaire. A clinical variant of CPTSD with a lower threshold for core PTSD symptoms was also calculated, in addition to conditional prevalence rates dependent on trauma type and differential predictors. One-month prevalence rates were as follows: PTSD, 1.5%; CPTSD, 0.5%; and CPTSD variant, 0.7%. For PTSD, the highest conditional prevalence was associated with kidnapping or rape, and the highest CPTSD rates were associated with sexual childhood abuse or rape. PTSD and CPTSD were best differentiated by sexual violence. Combined PTSD and CPTSD (ICD-11) rates were in the range of previously reported prevalences for unified PTSD (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition; ICD-10). Evidence on differential predictors of PTSD and CPTSD is still preliminary.

  20. Estimation of uncertainty in tracer gas measurement of air change rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizuka, Atsushi; Okuizumi, Yumiko; Yanagisawa, Yukio

    2010-12-01

    Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of air change rate can be avoided. The proposed estimation method will be useful in practical ventilation measurements.

  1. Estimated prevalence of halitosis: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silva, Manuela Ferrari; Manzolli Leite, Fabio Renato; Ferreira, Larissa Barbosa

    2018-01-01

    and abstract evaluation. Thirteen articles met inclusion criteria. The combined prevalence of halitosis was found to be 31.8% (95% CI 24.6-39.0%). Methodological aspects such as the year of publication and the socioeconomic status of the country where the study was conducted seemed to influence the prevalence...

  2. Suicidal behaviours: Prevalence estimates from the second Australian Child and Adolescent Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubrick, Stephen R; Hafekost, Jennifer; Johnson, Sarah E; Lawrence, David; Saw, Suzy; Sawyer, Michael; Ainley, John; Buckingham, William J

    2016-09-01

    To (1) estimate the lifetime and 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviours in Australian young people aged 12-17 years, (2) describe their co-morbidity with mental illness and (3) describe the co-variation of these estimates with social and demographic variables. A national random sample of children aged 4-17 years was recruited in 2013-2014. The response rate to the survey was 55% with 6310 parents and carers of eligible households participating. In addition, of the 2967 young people aged 11-17 years in these households, 89% (2653) of the 12- to 17-year-olds completed a self-report questionnaire that included questions about suicidal behaviour. In any 12-month period, about 2.4% or 41,400 young people would have made a suicide attempt. About 7.5% of 12- to 17-year-olds report having suicidal ideation, 5.2% making a plan and less than 1% (0.6%) receiving medical treatment for an attempt. The presence of a mental disorder shows the largest significant association with lifetime and 12-month suicidal behaviour, along with age, gender, sole parent family status and poor family functioning. Of young people with a major depressive disorder, 19.7% reported making a suicide attempt within the previous 12 months. There are also significant elevations in the proportions of young people reporting suicidal behaviour who have anxiety and conduct disorders. Mental disorders should be a leading intervention point for suicide prevention both in the primary health sector and in the mental health sector specifically. The associations examined here also suggest that efforts to assist sole parent and/or dysfunctional families would be worthy areas in which to target these efforts. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2016.

  3. HCV infection among Saudi population: high prevalence of genotype 4 and increased viral clearance rate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed S Abdel-Moneim

    Full Text Available HCV is a major etiological agent of liver disease with a high rate of chronic evolution. The virus possesses 6 genotypes with many subtypes. The rate of spontaneous clearance among HCV infected individuals denotes a genetic determinant factor. The current study was designed in order to estimate the rate of HCV infection and ratio of virus clearance among a group of infected patients in Saudi Arabia from 2008 to 2011. It was additionally designed to determine the genotypes of the HCV in persistently infected patients. HCV seroprevalence was conducted on a total of 15,323 individuals. Seropositive individuals were tested by Cobas AmpliPrep/Cobas TaqMan HCV assay to determine the ratio of persistently infected patients to those who showed spontaneous viral clearance. HCV genotyping on random samples from persistently infected patients were conducted based on the differences in the 5'untranslated region (5'UTR. Anti-HCV antibodies were detected in 7.3% of the totally examined sera. A high percentage of the HCV infected individuals experienced virus clearance (48.4%. HCV genotyping revealed the presence of genotypes 1 and 4, the latter represented 97.6% of the tested strains. Evidences of the widespread of the HCV genotype 4 and a high rate of HCV virus clearance were found in Saudi Arabia.

  4. Hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimated prevalence in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azevedo, Tiago Castro Lopes; Zwahlen, Marcel; Rauch, Andri; Egger, Matthias; Wandeler, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1-80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries.

  5. Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Seliske

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

  6. The impact of case definition on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder prevalence estimates in community-based samples of school-aged children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKeown, Robert E; Holbrook, Joseph R; Danielson, Melissa L; Cuffe, Steven P; Wolraich, Mark L; Visser, Susanna N

    2015-01-01

    To determine the impact of varying attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Parent and teacher reports identified high- and low-screen children with ADHD from elementary schools in 2 states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children-IV (DISC-IV), and up to 4 additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. At baseline 1,060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least 1 follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported 6 or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI = 18.1%-23.2%) and 29.8% (CI = 24.5%-35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age 7 years (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI = 14.7%-18.0%) and 17.5% (CI = 13.3%-22.8%); requiring at least 4 teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI = 7.4%-10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased the 8.9% estimate to 11.3% (CI = 9.5%-13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age 7 onset (CI = 5.9%-11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI = 7.6%-21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the overall estimate to 13.1% (CI = 7.7%-21.5%). These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Estimation of glucose rate of appearance from cgs and subcutaneous insulin delivery in type 1 diabetes

    KAUST Repository

    Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem

    2017-08-31

    Method and System for providing estimates of Glucose Rate of Appearance from the intestine (GRA) using continuous glucose sensor measurements (CGS) taken from the subcutaneous of a diabetes patient and the amount of insulin administered to the patient.

  8. Estimates of Radiation Dose Rates Near Large Diameter Sludge Containers in T Plant

    CERN Document Server

    Himes, D A

    2002-01-01

    Dose rates in T Plant canyon during the handling and storage of large diameter storage containers of K Basin sludge were estimated. A number of different geometries were considered from which most operational situations of interest can be constructed.

  9. Estimation of evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea from Satellite data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, M.V.; RameshBabu, V.; Rao, L.V.G.; Sastry, J.S.

    Utilizing both the SAMIR brightness temperatures of Bhaskara 2 and GOSSTCOMP charts of NOAA satellite series, the evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea for June 1982 are estimated through the bulk aerodynamic method. The spatial distribution...

  10. Type I Error Rates and Power Estimates of Selected Parametric and Nonparametric Tests of Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olejnik, Stephen F.; Algina, James

    1987-01-01

    Estimated Type I Error rates and power are reported for the Brown-Forsythe, O'Brien, Klotz, and Siegal-Tukey procedures. The effect of aligning the data using deviations from group means or group medians is investigated. (RB)

  11. Estimation of glucose rate of appearance from cgs and subcutaneous insulin delivery in type 1 diabetes

    KAUST Repository

    Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem; Al-Matouq, Ali Ahmed

    2017-01-01

    Method and System for providing estimates of Glucose Rate of Appearance from the intestine (GRA) using continuous glucose sensor measurements (CGS) taken from the subcutaneous of a diabetes patient and the amount of insulin administered

  12. On the estimate of the rate constant in the homogeneous dissolution model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Čupera, Jakub; Lánský, Petr

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 39, č. 10 (2013), s. 1555-1561 ISSN 0363-9045 Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : dissolution * estimation * rate constant Subject RIV: FR - Pharmacology ; Medidal Chemistry Impact factor: 2.006, year: 2013

  13. An estimation of the domain of attraction and convergence rate for Hopfield continuous feedback neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Jinde

    2004-01-01

    In this Letter, the domain of attraction of memory patterns and exponential convergence rate of the network trajectories to memory patterns for Hopfield continuous associative memory are estimated by means of matrix measure and comparison principle. A new estimation is given for the domain of attraction of memory patterns and exponential convergence rate. These results can be used for the evaluation of fault-tolerance capability and the synthesis procedures for Hopfield continuous feedback associative memory neural networks

  14. On researching erosion-corrosion wear in pipelines: the rate and residual lifetime estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranenko, V.I.; Yanchenko, Yu.A.; Gulina, O.M.; Dokukin, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    To base the normative document on calculation of pipelines erosive-corrosive wear (ECW) rate and residual lifetime this research of ECW regularities for pearlitic steel NPP pipelines was performed. The estimates of control data treatment statistical procedures efficiency were presented. The influence of the scheme of piping control on the ECW rate and residual lifetime estimation results was demonstrated. The simplified scheme is valid only in case of complete information. It's usage under data uncertainties leads to essential residual lifetime overstating [ru

  15. Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Chae, Hyeseon; Min, Kyungdoo; Youn, kanwoo; Park, Jinwoo; Kim, Kyungran; Kim, Hyocher; Lee, Kyungsuk

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. Methods The first Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. ...

  16. Accurate Angle Estimator for High-Frame-rate 2-D Vector Flow Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villagómez Hoyos, Carlos Armando; Stuart, Matthias Bo; Lindskov Hansen, Kristoffer

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach for estimating 2-D flow angles using a high-frame-rate ultrasound method. The angle estimator features high accuracy and low standard deviation (SD) over the full 360° range. The method is validated on Field II simulations and phantom measurements using...

  17. Estimates of the rate and distribution of fitness effects of spontaneous mutation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeyl, C.; Visser, de J.A.G.M.

    2001-01-01

    The per-genome, per-generation rate of spontaneous mutation affecting fitness (U) and the mean fitness cost per mutation (s) are important parameters in evolutionary genetics, but have been estimated for few species. We estimated U and sh (the heterozygous effect of mutations) for two diploid yeast

  18. An estimator for the relative entropy rate of path measures for stochastic differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Opper, Manfred, E-mail: manfred.opper@tu-berlin.de

    2017-02-01

    We address the problem of estimating the relative entropy rate (RER) for two stochastic processes described by stochastic differential equations. For the case where the drift of one process is known analytically, but one has only observations from the second process, we use a variational bound on the RER to construct an estimator.

  19. A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

    2013-12-01

    Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. On the use temperature parameterized rate coefficients in the estimation of non-equilibrium reaction rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shizgal, Bernie D.; Chikhaoui, Aziz

    2006-06-01

    The present paper considers a detailed analysis of the nonequilibrium effects for a model reactive system with the Chapman-Eskog (CE) solution of the Boltzmann equation as well as an explicit time dependent solution. The elastic cross sections employed are a hard sphere cross section and the Maxwell molecule cross section. Reactive cross sections which model reactions with and without activation energy are used. A detailed comparison is carried out with these solutions of the Boltzmann equation and the approximation introduced by Cukrowski and coworkers [J. Chem. Phys. 97 (1992) 9086; Chem. Phys. 89 (1992) 159; Physica A 188 (1992) 344; Chem. Phys. Lett. A 297 (1998) 402; Physica A 275 (2000) 134; Chem. Phys. Lett. 341 (2001) 585; Acta Phys. Polonica B 334 (2003) 3607.] based on the temperature of the reactive particles. We show that the Cukrowski approximation has limited applicability for the large class of reactive systems studied in this paper. The explicit time dependent solutions of the Boltzmann equation demonstrate that the CE approach is valid only for very slow reactions for which the corrections to the equilibrium rate coefficient are very small.

  1. The estimated risk for coronary heart disease and prevalence of dyslipidemia among workers of information technology industries in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shao-Chi; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Tsai, Wei-I; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Chen, Ming-Fong

    2011-03-18

    Individuals working in information technology (IT) industries suffer from high work stress, possibly causing adverse impacts on their health. However, studies of cardiovascular risk factors among these workers are lacking. The aims of this study were to evaluate the estimated risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and prevalence of dyslipidemia among IT workers. A total of 941 employees from 11 IT companies were enrolled and the anthropometrics and serum lipid profiles were measured. The 10-year risk for CHD was calculated based on the Framingham risk score. Compared with lipid profiles in a representative sample (n=6589), IT workers had a significantly higher prevalence of obesity, hypercholesterolemia, low level of HDL-C, and high level of LDL-C in each age group. Their overall estimated 10-year risk for CHD was higher than the average risk of an age- and gender-matched population (2.91% vs. 2.79%, p=0.027). Working for more than 10h/day was associated with a higher estimated CHD risk (3.62% vs. 2.54%, p<0.01). A higher prevalence of hyperlipidemia was noted among IT workers. Their estimated 10-year CHD risk was also higher than average. More aggressive interventions to reduce the risk of CHD in this population are needed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Trends of increases in potential risk factors and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavasit, V; Kriengsinyos, W; Photi, J; Tontisirin, K

    2017-07-01

    Over the past three decades, undernutrition in Thailand has drastically reduced by over seven times. However, since 1995 the number of patients afflicted with non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes mellitus, has rapidly increased, even among the young. Unhealthy life styles due to urbanization are a major reason for this increase. Less physical activity and low consumption of fruits and vegetables, as well as high consumption of added free sugar, are common. Every year, the Thai people increase their consumption of energy from fat and protein, while lowering their intake of energy from complex carbohydrates. Per capita and on average, a Thai individual consumes up to 20% of total energy from added free sugar. Barker's hypothesis and Developmental Origins of Health and Disease hypothesis (DOHaD) can partially explain the increase in diabetes mellitus at this rapid rate. To alleviate the problem, the main strategy has been consumer education to reduce diabetes mellitus prevalence. Sugar elimination from infant formula is mandatory and sugar taxation is being considered. Simplified nutrition labeling is voluntarily as part of consumer education, as well as encouraging food industries to produce healthier food products. Currently, a multi-sectoral approach is used for alleviating diabetes mellitus in Thailand.

  3. Extraspinal incidental findings on routine MRI of lumbar spine: Prevalence and reporting Rates in 1278 patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuncel, Sedat Alpaslan; Cagli, Bekir; Tekatas, Aslan; Kirici, Yadigar Mehmet; Unlu, Ercument; Genchellac, Haken [Trakya University Faculty of Medicine, Balkan Campus, Edirne (Turkmenistan)

    2015-08-15

    The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence and reporting rate of incidental findings (IF) in adult outpatients undergoing lumbar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Re-evaluation of a total of 1278 lumbar MRI images (collected from patients with a mean age of 50.5 years, range 16-91 years) captured between August 2010-August 2011 was done by a neuroradiologist and a musculoskeletal radiologist. IFs were classified according to organ or system (liver, gallbladder, kidney, bladder, uterus, ovary, lymph node, intestine and aorta). The rate of reporting of a range of IF was examined. The outcome of each patient's treatment was evaluated based on review of hospital records and by telephone interviews. A total of 253 IFs were found in 241 patients (18.8% of 1278). Among these, clinically significant IFs (n = 34) included: 2 renal masses (0.15%), 2 aortic aneurysms (0.15%), 2 cases of hydronephrosis (0.15%), 11 adrenal masses (0.86%), 7 lymphadenopathies (0.55%), 6 cases of endometrial or cervical thickening (0.47%), 1 liver hemangioma (0.08%), 1 pelvic fluid (0.08%) and 2 ovarian dermoid cysts (0.15%). Overall, 28% (71/253) of IFs were included in the clinical reports, while clinically significant findings were reported in 41% (14/34) of cases. Extraspinal IFs are commonly detected during a routine lumbar MRI, and many of these findings are not clinically significant. However, IFs including clinically important findings are occasionally omitted from formal radiological reports.

  4. Prevalence, Diagnosis, and Treatment Rates of Mood Disorders among Opioid Users under Criminal Justice Supervision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbaba, Mary; Brown, Shan-Estelle; Wooditch, Alese; Kiss, Marissa; Murphy, Amy; Kumari, Suneeta; Taxman, Faye; Altice, Frederick; Lawson, William B; Springer, Sandra A

    2018-01-15

    Individuals involved in the criminal justice system have disproportionately high rates of psychiatric disorders when compared to the general U.S. If left untreated, the likelihood of subsequent arrest increases and risk for adverse health consequences is great, particularly among opioid users. To explore the prevalence, characteristics, and treatment of mood disorders among justice involved opioid-dependent populations. The current study enrolled 258 treatment-seeking opioid-dependent individuals under community-based criminal justice supervision (e.g., probation, parole) screened from the larger parent study, Project STRIDE, a seek/test/treat randomized control trial (RCT) examining HIV and opioid use treatment. During baseline, individuals were screened for depression using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and screened for bipolar disorder using the Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ) tool. Overall, 78 (30%) participants screened positive for moderate to severe depression and 54 (21%) screened positive for bipolar disorder. Participants self-reported mood disorders at higher rates than they screened positive for these conditions. Participants screening positive for these conditions experienced significantly greater family, legal, and medical problems on the Addiction Severity Index-Lite (ASI-Lite) than those who did not screen positive. Incidence of a lifetime suicide attempt was found to be associated with a positive screen for both mood disorders. Prescribed psychotropic treatment utilization was similar among those who screened positive for depression or bipolar disorder with approximately 38% reporting taking medication. Findings suggest universal mood disorder screening to improve comprehensive psychiatric care and treatment of opioid-dependent justice-involved individuals.

  5. High third-generation cephalosporin resistant Enterobacteriaceae prevalence rate among neonatal infections in Dakar, Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastien Breurec

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Neonatal infection constitutes one of Senegal’s most important public health problems, with a mortality rate of 41 deaths per 1,000 live births. Methods Between January 2007 and March 2008, 242 neonates with suspected infection were recruited at three neonatal intensive care units in three major tertiary care centers in Dakar, the capital of Senegal. Neonatal infections were confirmed by positive bacterial blood or cerebrospinal fluid culture. The microbiological pattern of neonatal infections and the antibiotic susceptibility of the isolates were characterized. In addition, the genetic basis for antibiotic resistance and the genetic background of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant (3GC-R Enterobacteriaceae were studied. Results A bacteriological infection was confirmed in 36.4 % (88/242 of neonates: 22.7 % (30/132 during the early-onset and 52.7 % (58/110 during the late-onset periods (p > 0.20. Group B streptococci accounted for 6.8 % of the 88 collected bacterial isolates, while most of them were Enterobacteriaceae (n = 69, 78.4 %. Of these, 55/69 (79.7 % were 3GC-R. The blaCTX-M-15 allele, the blaSHV and the blaTEM were highly prevalent (63.5, 65.4 and 53.8 %, respectively, usually associated with qnr genes (65.4 %. Clonally related strains of 3GC-R Klebsiella pneumoniae and 3GC-R Enterobacter cloacae, the two most commonly recovered 3GC-R Enterobacteriaceae (48/55, were detected at the three hospitals, underlining the role of cross-transmission in their spread. The overall case fatality rate was 18.6 %. Conclusions Measures should be taken to prevent nosocomial infections and the selection of resistant bacteria.

  6. Estimating the effect of treatment rate changes when treatment benefits are heterogeneous: antibiotics and otitis media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Tae-Ryong; Brooks, John M; Chrischilles, Elizabeth A; Bergus, George

    2008-01-01

    Contrast methods to assess the health effects of a treatment rate change when treatment benefits are heterogeneous across patients. Antibiotic prescribing for children with otitis media (OM) in Iowa Medicaid is the empirical example. Instrumental variable (IV) and linear probability model (LPM) are used to estimate the effect of antibiotic treatments on cure probabilities for children with OM in Iowa Medicaid. Local area physician supply per capita is the instrument in the IV models. Estimates are contrasted in terms of their ability to make inferences for patients whose treatment choices may be affected by a change in population treatment rates. The instrument was positively related to the probability of being prescribed an antibiotic. LPM estimates showed a positive effect of antibiotics on OM patient cure probability while IV estimates showed no relationship between antibiotics and patient cure probability. Linear probability model estimation yields the average effects of the treatment on patients that were treated. IV estimation yields the average effects for patients whose treatment choices were affected by the instrument. As antibiotic treatment effects are heterogeneous across OM patients, our estimates from these approaches are aligned with clinical evidence and theory. The average estimate for treated patients (higher severity) from the LPM model is greater than estimates for patients whose treatment choices are affected by the instrument (lower severity) from the IV models. Based on our IV estimates it appears that lowering antibiotic use in OM patients in Iowa Medicaid did not result in lost cures.

  7. Simple approximation for estimating centerline gamma absorbed dose rates due to a continuous Gaussian plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Overcamp, T.J.; Fjeld, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    A simple approximation for estimating the centerline gamma absorbed dose rates due to a continuous Gaussian plume was developed. To simplify the integration of the dose integral, this approach makes use of the Gaussian cloud concentration distribution. The solution is expressed in terms of the I1 and I2 integrals which were developed for estimating long-term dose due to a sector-averaged Gaussian plume. Estimates of tissue absorbed dose rates for the new approach and for the uniform cloud model were compared to numerical integration of the dose integral over a Gaussian plume distribution

  8. Natural history of benign prostatic hyperplasia: Appropriate case definition and estimation of its prevalence in the community

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.L.H.R. Bosch (Ruud); W.C.J. Hop (Wim); W.J. Kirkels (Wim); F.H. Schröder (Fritz)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractThere is no consensus about a case definition of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). In the present study, BPH prevalence rates were determined using various case definitions based on a combination of clinical parameters used to describe the properties of BPH: symptoms of prostatism,

  9. Estimated Prevalence of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in a Sample of Panamanian School-Aged Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Emelyn Y.; Velarde, Silvia; Britton, Gabrielle B.

    2011-01-01

    The present study investigated the prevalence of ADHD in a school sample of children ages 6-11 years in the city of Panama. The assessment battery included the Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales, the Structured Developmental History of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children…

  10. Advantages of video questionnaire in estimating asthma prevalence and risk factors for school children: findings from an asthma survey in American Indian youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Fawn; Rhoades, Everett R; Tarpay, Martha; Eichner, June E

    2010-09-01

    The aims of the present study were to estimate the prevalence and risk factors of asthma among a sample of American Indian youth and to evaluate survey instruments used in determining asthma prevalence and risk factors. Three hundred and fifty-two adolescents aged 9 to 21 years enrolled in an Indian boarding school completed an asthma screening. The survey instruments were a written questionnaire and a video-illustrated questionnaire prepared from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC), school health records, and a health questionnaire. Participants also underwent spirometry testing. The prevalence of self-reported asthma varied from 12.7% to 13.4% depending upon the instrument used and the questions asked. A history of hay fever, respiratory infections, and family history of asthma were found to be risk factors for asthma by all instruments. Female gender and living on a reservation were significantly associated with asthma by some, but not all, instruments. Airway obstruction was highly associated with one asthma symptom (wheeze) shown in the video questionnaire. Associations for most risk factors with asthma were strongest for the video questionnaire. The prevalence of self-reported asthma among these American Indian youth was similar to rates reported for other ethnic groups. The video-based questionnaire may be the most sensitive tool for identifying individuals at risk for asthma.

  11. Using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brissaud, Florent

    2017-01-01

    The IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 functional safety standards encourage the use of field feedback to estimate the failure rates of safety-related systems, which is preferred than generic data. In some cases (if “Route 2_H” is adopted for the 'hardware safety integrity constraints”), this is even a requirement. This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals, depending if the failures are detected on-line (called 'detected failures', e.g. by automatic diagnostic tests) or only revealed by proof tests (called 'undetected failures'). Examples show that for the same duration and number of failures observed, the estimated failure rates are basically higher for “undetected failures” because, in this case, the duration observed includes intervals of time where it is unknown that the elements have failed. This points out the need of using a proper approach for failure rates estimation, especially for failures that are not detected on-line. Then, this paper proposes an approach to use the estimated failure rates, with their uncertainties, for PFDavg and PFH assessment with upper confidence bounds, in accordance with IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 requirements. Examples finally show that the highest SIL that can be claimed for a safety function can be limited by the 90% upper confidence bound of PFDavg or PFH. The requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 relating to the data collection and analysis should therefore be properly considered for the study of all safety-related systems. - Highlights: • This paper deals with requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 for using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are detected on-line. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are only revealed by

  12. Estimation in adults of the glomerular filtration rate in [99mTc] DTPA renography - the rate constant method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlsen, Ove

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to design an alternative and robust method for estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in [ 99 mTc]-diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid ([ 99 mTc] -DTPA renography with a reliability not significantly lower than that of the conventional Gates' method. Methods: The method is based on renographies lasting 40 min in which regions of interest (ROIs) are manually created over selected parts of certain blood pools (e.g. heart, lungs, spleen, and liver). For each ROI the corresponding time-activity curve (TAC) was generated, decay corrected and exposed to a monoexponential fit in the time interval 10 to 40 min postinjection. The rate constant in min-1 of the monoexponential fit was denoted BETA. Following an iterative procedure comprising usually 5-10 manually created ROIs, the monoexponential fit with the maximum rate constant (BETA max ) was used for estimation of GFR. Results: In a patient material of 54 adult subjects in whom GFR was determined with multiple or one sample techniques with [ 51 Cr]-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid ([ 51 Cr]-EDTA) the regression curve of standard GFR (GFR std ) (i.e. GFR adjusted to 1.73 m 2 body surface area) showed a close, non-linear relationship with BETA max with a correlation coefficient of 95%. The standard errors of estimate (SEE) were 6.6, 10.6 and 16.8 for GFR std equal to 30, 60, and 120 ml/(min .73 m 2 ), respectively. The corresponding SEE values for almost the same patient material using Gates' method were 8.4, 11.9, and 16.8 ml/(min 1.73 m 2 ). Conclusions: The alternative rate constant method yields estimates of GFR std with SEE values equal to or slightly smaller than in Gates' method. The two methods provide statistically uncorrelated estimates of GFR std . Therefore, pooled estimates of GFR std can be calculated with SEE values approximately 1.41 times smaller than those mentioned above. The reliabilities of the pooled estimate of GFR std separately and of the multiple samples method

  13. Challenges associated with drunk driving measurement: combining police and self-reported data to estimate an accurate prevalence in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Tanara; Lunnen, Jeffrey C; Gonçalves, Veralice; Schmitz, Aurinez; Pasa, Graciela; Bastos, Tamires; Sripad, Pooja; Chandran, Aruna; Pechansky, Flavio

    2013-12-01

    Drunk driving is an important risk factor for road traffic crashes, injuries and deaths. After June 2008, all drivers in Brazil were subject to a "Zero Tolerance Law" with a set breath alcohol concentration of 0.1 mg/L of air. However, a loophole in this law enabled drivers to refuse breath or blood alcohol testing as it may self-incriminate. The reported prevalence of drunk driving is therefore likely a gross underestimate in many cities. To compare the prevalence of drunk driving gathered from police reports to the prevalence gathered from self-reported questionnaires administered at police sobriety roadblocks in two Brazilian capital cities, and to estimate a more accurate prevalence of drunk driving utilizing three correction techniques based upon information from those questionnaires. In August 2011 and January-February 2012, researchers from the Centre for Drug and Alcohol Research at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul administered a roadside interview on drunk driving practices to 805 voluntary participants in the Brazilian capital cities of Palmas and Teresina. Three techniques which include measures such as the number of persons reporting alcohol consumption in the last six hours but who had refused breath testing were used to estimate the prevalence of drunk driving. The prevalence of persons testing positive for alcohol on their breath was 8.8% and 5.0% in Palmas and Teresina respectively. Utilizing a correction technique we calculated that a more accurate prevalence in these sites may be as high as 28.2% and 28.7%. In both cities, about 60% of drivers who self-reported having drank within six hours of being stopped by the police either refused to perform breathalyser testing; fled the sobriety roadblock; or were not offered the test, compared to about 30% of drivers that said they had not been drinking. Despite the reduction of the legal limit for drunk driving stipulated by the "Zero Tolerance Law," loopholes in the legislation permit many

  14. Estimating the spread rate of urea formaldehyde adhesive on birch (Betula pendula Roth) veneer using fluorescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Antikainen; Anti Rohumaa; Christopher G. Hunt; Mari Levirinne; Mark Hughes

    2015-01-01

    In plywood production, human operators find it difficult to precisely monitor the spread rate of adhesive in real-time. In this study, macroscopic fluorescence was used to estimate spread rate (SR) of urea formaldehyde adhesive on birch (Betula pendula Roth) veneer. This method could be an option when developing automated real-time SR measurement for...

  15. How to efficiently obtain accurate estimates of flower visitation rates by pollinators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fijen, Thijs P.M.; Kleijn, David

    2017-01-01

    Regional declines in insect pollinators have raised concerns about crop pollination. Many pollinator studies use visitation rate (pollinators/time) as a proxy for the quality of crop pollination. Visitation rate estimates are based on observation durations that vary significantly between studies.

  16. Estimating morbidity rates from electronic medical records in general practice: evaluation of a grouping system.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermans, M.C.J.; Verheij, R.A.; Bakker, D.H. de; Zielhuis, G.A.; Vries Robbé, P.F. de

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: In this study, we evaluated the internal validity of EPICON, an application for grouping ICPCcoded diagnoses from electronic medical records into episodes of care. These episodes are used to estimate morbidity rates in general practice. Methods: Morbidity rates based on EPICON were

  17. Constrained least squares methods for estimating reaction rate constants from spectroscopic data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, S.; Boelens, H.F.M.; Hoefsloot, H.C.J.; Smilde, A.K.

    2002-01-01

    Model errors, experimental errors and instrumental noise influence the accuracy of reaction rate constant estimates obtained from spectral data recorded in time during a chemical reaction. In order to improve the accuracy, which can be divided into the precision and bias of reaction rate constant

  18. Use of Pyranometers to Estimate PV Module Degradation Rates in the Field: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vignola, Frank; Peterson, Josh; Kessler, Rich; Mavromatakis, Fotis; Dooraghi, Mike; Sengupta, Manajit

    2016-08-01

    This paper describes a methodology that uses relative measurements to estimate the degradation rates of PV modules in the field. The importance of calibration and cleaning is illustrated. The number of years of field measurements needed to measure degradation rates with data from the field is cut in half using relative comparisons.

  19. Environmental isotope balance of Lake Kinneret as a tool in evaporation rate estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, S.

    1979-01-01

    The balance of environmental isotopes in Lake Kinneret has been used to obtain an independent estimate of the mean monthly evaporation rate. Direct calculation was precluded by the inadequacy of the isotope data in uniquely representing the system behaviour throughout the annual cycle. The approach adopted uses an automatic algorithm to seek an objective best fit of the isotope balance model to measured oxygen-18 data by optimizing the evaporation rate as a parameter. To this end, evaporation is described as a periodic function with two parameters. The sensitivity of the evaporation rate estimates to parameter uncertainty and data errors is stressed. Error analysis puts confidence limits on the estimates obtained. Projected improvements in data collection and analysis show that a significant reduction in uncertainty can be realized. Relative to energy balance estimates, currently obtainable data result in about 30% uncertainty. The most optimistic scenario would yield about 15% relative uncertainty. (author)

  20. Fill rate estimation in periodic review policies with lost sales using simple methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardós, M.; Guijarro Tarradellas, E.; Babiloni Griñón, E.

    2016-07-01

    Purpose: The exact estimation of the fill rate in the lost sales case is complex and time consuming. However, simple and suitable methods are needed for its estimation so that inventory managers could use them. Design/methodology/approach: Instead of trying to compute the fill rate in one step, this paper focuses first on estimating the probabilities of different on-hand stock levels so that the fill rate is computed later. Findings: As a result, the performance of a novel proposed method overcomes the other methods and is relatively simple to compute. Originality/value: Existing methods for estimating stock levels are examined, new procedures are proposed and their performance is assessed.

  1. On the estimation of failure rates for living PSAs in the presence of model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arsenis, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    The estimation of failure rates of heterogeneous Poisson components from data on times operated to failures is reviewed. Particular emphasis is given to the lack of knowledge on the form of the mixing distribution or population variability curve. A new nonparametric epirical Bayes estimation is proposed which generalizes the estimator of Robbins for different times of observations for the components. The behavior of the estimator is discussed by reference to two samples typically drawn from the CEDB, a component event database designed and operated by the Ispra JRC

  2. A matlab framework for estimation of NLME models using stochastic differential equations: applications for estimation of insulin secretion rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Stig B; Klim, Søren; Dammann, Bernd; Kristensen, Niels R; Madsen, Henrik; Overgaard, Rune V

    2007-10-01

    The non-linear mixed-effects model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provides an attractive residual error model, that is able to handle serially correlated residuals typically arising from structural mis-specification of the true underlying model. The use of SDEs also opens up for new tools for model development and easily allows for tracking of unknown inputs and parameters over time. An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the model has earlier been proposed, and the present paper presents the first general implementation of this algorithm. The implementation is done in Matlab and also demonstrates the use of parallel computing for improved estimation times. The use of the implementation is illustrated by two examples of application which focus on the ability of the model to estimate unknown inputs facilitated by the extension to SDEs. The first application is a deconvolution-type estimation of the insulin secretion rate based on a linear two-compartment model for C-peptide measurements. In the second application the model is extended to also give an estimate of the time varying liver extraction based on both C-peptide and insulin measurements.

  3. On Kolmogorov asymptotics of estimators of the misclassification error rate in linear discriminant analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Zollanvari, Amin

    2013-05-24

    We provide a fundamental theorem that can be used in conjunction with Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions to derive the first moments of well-known estimators of the actual error rate in linear discriminant analysis of a multivariate Gaussian model under the assumption of a common known covariance matrix. The estimators studied in this paper are plug-in and smoothed resubstitution error estimators, both of which have not been studied before under Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions. As a result of this work, we present an optimal smoothing parameter that makes the smoothed resubstitution an unbiased estimator of the true error. For the sake of completeness, we further show how to utilize the presented fundamental theorem to achieve several previously reported results, namely the first moment of the resubstitution estimator and the actual error rate. We provide numerical examples to show the accuracy of the succeeding finite sample approximations in situations where the number of dimensions is comparable or even larger than the sample size.

  4. On Kolmogorov asymptotics of estimators of the misclassification error rate in linear discriminant analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Zollanvari, Amin; Genton, Marc G.

    2013-01-01

    We provide a fundamental theorem that can be used in conjunction with Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions to derive the first moments of well-known estimators of the actual error rate in linear discriminant analysis of a multivariate Gaussian model under the assumption of a common known covariance matrix. The estimators studied in this paper are plug-in and smoothed resubstitution error estimators, both of which have not been studied before under Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions. As a result of this work, we present an optimal smoothing parameter that makes the smoothed resubstitution an unbiased estimator of the true error. For the sake of completeness, we further show how to utilize the presented fundamental theorem to achieve several previously reported results, namely the first moment of the resubstitution estimator and the actual error rate. We provide numerical examples to show the accuracy of the succeeding finite sample approximations in situations where the number of dimensions is comparable or even larger than the sample size.

  5. Estimating the Recurrence Rate of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) in Massachusetts 1998-2007: Methods and Findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, Lucinda; Kotelchuck, Milton; Wilson, Hoyt G; Diop, Hafsatou; Oppedisano, Paul; Kim, Shin Y; Cui, Xiaohui; Shapiro-Mendoza, Carrie K

    2015-10-01

    Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) may be able to reduce their risk of recurrent GDM and progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus through lifestyle change; however, there is limited population-based information on GDM recurrence rates. We used data from a population of women delivering two sequential live singleton infants in Massachusetts (1998-2007) to estimate the prevalence of chronic diabetes mellitus (CDM) and GDM in parity one pregnancies and recurrence of GDM and progression from GDM to CDM in parity two pregnancies. We examined four diabetes classification approaches; birth certificate (BC) data alone, hospital discharge (HD) data alone, both sources hierarchically combined with a diagnosis of CDM from either source taking priority over a diagnosis of GDM, and both sources combined including only pregnancies with full agreement in diagnosis. Descriptive statistics were used to describe population characteristics, prevalence of CDM and GDM, and recurrence of diabetes in successive pregnancies. Diabetes classification agreement was assessed using the Kappa statistic. Associated maternal characteristics were examined through adjusted model-based t tests and Chi square tests. A total of 134,670 women with two sequential deliveries of parities one and two were identified. While there was only slight agreement on GDM classification across HD and BC records, estimates of GDM recurrence were fairly consistent; nearly half of women with GDM in their parity one pregnancy developed GDM in their subsequent pregnancy. While estimates of progression from GDM to CDM across sequential pregnancies were more variable, all approaches yielded estimates of ≤5 %. The development of either GDM or CDM following a parity one pregnancy with no diagnosis of diabetes was diabetes prevention.

  6. Prevalence estimates of depression in elderly community-dwelling African Americans in Indianapolis and Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baiyewu, Olusegun; Smith-Gamble, Valerie; Lane, Kathleen A; Gureje, Oye; Gao, Sujuan; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Unverzagt, Frederick W; Hall, Kathleen S; Hendrie, Hugh C

    2007-08-01

    This is a community-based longitudinal epidemiological comparative study of elderly African Americans in Indianapolis and elderly Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria. A two-stage study was designed in which community-based individuals were first screened using the Community Screening Interview for Dementia. The second stage was a full clinical assessment, which included use of the Geriatric Depression Scale, of a smaller sub-sample of individuals selected on the basis of their performance in the screening interview. Prevalence of depression was estimated using sampling weights according to the sampling stratification scheme for clinical assessment. Some 2627 individuals were evaluated at the first stage in Indianapolis and 2806 in Ibadan. All were aged 69 years and over. Of these, 451 (17.2%) underwent clinical assessment in Indianapolis, while 605 (21.6%) were assessed in Ibadan. The prevalence estimates of both mild and severe depression were similar for the two sites (p=0.1273 and p=0.7093): 12.3% (mild depression) and 2.2% (severe depression) in Indianapolis and 19.8% and 1.6% respectively in Ibadan. Some differences were identified in association with demographic characteristics; for example, Ibadan men had a significantly higher prevalence of mild depression than Indianapolis men (pYoruba (p=0.0039). Prevalence of depression was similar for elderly African Americans and Yoruba despite considerable socioeconomic and cultural differences between these populations.

  7. Estimates of particle- and thorium-cycling rates in the northwest Atlantic Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murnane, R.J.; Sarmiento, J.L.; Cochran, J.K.

    1994-01-01

    The authors provide least squares estimates of particle-cycling rate constants and their errors at 13 depths in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean using a compilation of published results and conservation equations for thorium and particle cycling. The predicted rates of particle aggregation and disaggregation vary through the water column. The means and standard deviations, based on lognormal probability distributions, for the lowest and highest rates of aggregation (β 2 ) and disaggregation (β -2 ) in the water column are 8±27 y -1 2 -1 , and 580±2000 y -1 -2 3 ±10 4 y -1 . Median values for these rates are 2.1 y -1 2 -1 , and 149 y -1 -2 -1 . Predicted rate constants for thorium adsorption (k 1 = 5.0±1.0x10 4 m 3 kg -1 y -1 ) and desorption (k -1 = 3.1±1.5 y -1 ) are consistent with previous estimates. Least squares estimates of the sum of the time dependence and transport terms from the particle and thorium conservation equations are on the same order as other terms in the conservation equations. Forcing this sum to equal zero would change the predicted rates. Better estimates of the time dependence of thorium activities and particle concentrations and of the concentration and flux of particulate organic matter would help to constrain estimates of β 2 and β -2 . 46 refs., 8 figs., 5 tabs

  8. Estimating the effect of a rare time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Abigail R; Zhu, Danting; Goodrich, Nathan P; Merion, Robert M; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2018-05-30

    In many observational studies, the objective is to estimate the effect of treatment or state-change on the recurrent event rate. If treatment is assigned after the start of follow-up, traditional methods (eg, adjustment for baseline-only covariates or fully conditional adjustment for time-dependent covariates) may give biased results. We propose a two-stage modeling approach using the method of sequential stratification to accurately estimate the effect of a time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate. At the first stage, we estimate the pretreatment recurrent event trajectory using a proportional rates model censored at the time of treatment. Prognostic scores are estimated from the linear predictor of this model and used to match treated patients to as yet untreated controls based on prognostic score at the time of treatment for the index patient. The final model is stratified on matched sets and compares the posttreatment recurrent event rate to the recurrent event rate of the matched controls. We demonstrate through simulation that bias due to dependent censoring is negligible, provided the treatment frequency is low, and we investigate a threshold at which correction for dependent censoring is needed. The method is applied to liver transplant (LT), where we estimate the effect of development of post-LT End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) on rate of days hospitalized. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Application of Statistical Methods of Rain Rate Estimation to Data From The TRMM Precipitation Radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghini, R.; Jones, J. A.; Iguchi, T.; Okamoto, K.; Liao, L.; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The TRMM Precipitation Radar is well suited to statistical methods in that the measurements over any given region are sparsely sampled in time. Moreover, the instantaneous rain rate estimates are often of limited accuracy at high rain rates because of attenuation effects and at light rain rates because of receiver sensitivity. For the estimation of the time-averaged rain characteristics over an area both errors are relevant. By enlarging the space-time region over which the data are collected, the sampling error can be reduced. However. the bias and distortion of the estimated rain distribution generally will remain if estimates at the high and low rain rates are not corrected. In this paper we use the TRMM PR data to investigate the behavior of 2 statistical methods the purpose of which is to estimate the rain rate over large space-time domains. Examination of large-scale rain characteristics provides a useful starting point. The high correlation between the mean and standard deviation of rain rate implies that the conditional distribution of this quantity can be approximated by a one-parameter distribution. This property is used to explore the behavior of the area-time-integral (ATI) methods where fractional area above a threshold is related to the mean rain rate. In the usual application of the ATI method a correlation is established between these quantities. However, if a particular form of the rain rate distribution is assumed and if the ratio of the mean to standard deviation is known, then not only the mean but the full distribution can be extracted from a measurement of fractional area above a threshold. The second method is an extension of this idea where the distribution is estimated from data over a range of rain rates chosen in an intermediate range where the effects of attenuation and poor sensitivity can be neglected. The advantage of estimating the distribution itself rather than the mean value is that it yields the fraction of rain contributed by

  10. Estimating rate of occurrence of rare events with empirical bayes: A railway application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quigley, John; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley

    2007-01-01

    Classical approaches to estimating the rate of occurrence of events perform poorly when data are few. Maximum likelihood estimators result in overly optimistic point estimates of zero for situations where there have been no events. Alternative empirical-based approaches have been proposed based on median estimators or non-informative prior distributions. While these alternatives offer an improvement over point estimates of zero, they can be overly conservative. Empirical Bayes procedures offer an unbiased approach through pooling data across different hazards to support stronger statistical inference. This paper considers the application of Empirical Bayes to high consequence low-frequency events, where estimates are required for risk mitigation decision support such as as low as reasonably possible. A summary of empirical Bayes methods is given and the choices of estimation procedures to obtain interval estimates are discussed. The approaches illustrated within the case study are based on the estimation of the rate of occurrence of train derailments within the UK. The usefulness of empirical Bayes within this context is discussed

  11. National Estimates of Exposure to Traumatic Events and PTSD Prevalence Using DSM-IV and DSM-5 Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Milanak, Melissa E.; Miller, Mark W.; Keyes, Katherine M.; Friedman, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) defined according to the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual fifth edition (DSM-5; 2013) and fourth edition (DSM-IV; 1994) was compared in a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,953) recruited from an online panel. Exposure to traumatic events, PTSD symptoms, and functional impairment were assessed online using a highly structured, self-administered survey. Traumatic event exposure using DSM-5 criteria was high (89.7%), and exposure to multiple traumatic event types was the norm. PTSD caseness was determined using Same Event (i.e., all symptom criteria met to the same event type) and Composite Event (i.e., symptom criteria met to a combination of event types) definitions. Lifetime, past-12-month, and past 6-month PTSD prevalence using the Same Event definition for DSM-5 was 8.3%, 4.7%, and 3.8% respectively. All 6 DSM-5 prevalence estimates were slightly lower than their DSM-IV counterparts, although only 2 of these differences were statistically significant. DSM-5 PTSD prevalence was higher among women than among men, and prevalence increased with greater traumatic event exposure. Major reasons individuals met DSM-IV criteria, but not DSM-5 criteria were the exclusion of nonaccidental, nonviolent deaths from Criterion A, and the new requirement of at least 1 active avoidance symptom. PMID:24151000

  12. Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? Some new evidence from structural estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Dong

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. We develop and estimate a structural general equilibrium two-sector model with sticky prices and wages and limited exchange rate pass-through. Different specifications for the monetary policy rule and the real exchange rate process are examined. The results indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Engla...

  13. A CONSISTENT ESTIMATE FOR THE IMPACT OF SINGAPORE'S EXCHANGE RATE ON COMPETITIVENESS

    OpenAIRE

    JANG PING THIA

    2010-01-01

    Services form a larger part of the Singapore economy. However, it is difficult to analyze the exchange rate impact on services due to the lack of price data. Regression of output or export on exchange rate, while highly intuitive, is likely to suffer from the endogeneity problem since Singapore's exchange rate is used as a counter-cyclical policy tool. This results in inconsistent estimates. I propose a novel approach to overcome these limitations by using Hong Kong as a control for Singapore...

  14. Distribution of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values in patients receiving contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimoji, Keigo; Aoki, Shigeki; Nakanishi, Atsushi

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to elucidate the distribution of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values in patients who underwent gadolinium-based contrast agent (GBCA)-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at different types of hospitals. We retrospectively studied 2,550 patients who underwent MRI at five institutions. We recorded the date and value of each patient's eGFR test. The distribution of eGFR values was compared with that in the general Japanese population. A total of 84.3% of patients had their eGFRs evaluated before GBCA-enhanced MRI. Of these, 84.7% were evaluated within 3 months before the GBCA-enhanced MRI, and 1.3% were evaluated on the day of the GBCA-enhanced MRI. A total of 87.2% of patients tested had an eGFR of ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 ; 12.8% had an eGFR of 2 , and no patients had an eGFR of 2 . The rate of renal function evaluation differed among hospitals. The prevalence of low eGFR values was greater in Juntendo Tokyo Koto Geriatric Medical Center than in the other hospitals, and the prevalence of low eGFR values was greater in patients who underwent GBCA-enhanced MRI than in the general Japanese population. (author)

  15. Evaluation of test-strategies for estimating probability of low prevalence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sergeant, E.S.G.; Nielsen, Søren S.; Toft, Nils

    2008-01-01

    of this study was to develop a method to estimate the probability of low within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis for Danish dairy herds. A stochastic simulation model was developed using the R(R) programming environment. Features of this model included: use of age-specific estimates of test......-sensitivity and specificity; use of a distribution of observed values (rather than a fixed, low value) for design prevalence; and estimates of the probability of low prevalence (Pr-Low) based on a specific number of test-positive animals, rather than for a result less than or equal to a specified cut-point number of reactors....... Using this model, five herd-testing strategies were evaluated: (1) milk-ELISA on all lactating cows; (2) milk-ELISA on lactating cows 4 years old; (4) faecal culture on all lactating cows; and (5) milk-ELISA plus faecal culture in series on all lactating cows. The five testing strategies were evaluated...

  16. Questionnaire layout and wording influence prevalence and risk estimates of respiratory symptoms in a population cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekerljung, Linda; Rönmark, Eva; Lötvall, Jan; Wennergren, Göran; Torén, Kjell; Lundbäck, Bo

    2013-01-01

    Results of epidemiological studies are greatly influenced by the chosen methodology. The study aims to investigate how two frequently used questionnaires (Qs), with partly different layout, influence the prevalence of respiratory symptoms. A booklet containing two Qs, the Global Allergy and Asthma European Network Q and the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden Q, was mailed to 30,000 subjects aged 16-75years in West Sweden; 62% responded. Sixteen questions were included in the analysis: seven identical between the Qs, four different in set-up and five with the same layout but different wording. Comparisons were made using differences in proportions, observed agreement and Kappa statistics.  Identical questions yielded similar prevalences with high observed agreement and kappa values. Questions with different set-up or differences in wording resulted in significantly different prevalences with lower observed agreement and kappa values. In general, the use of follow-up questions, excluding subjects answering no to the initial question, resulted in 2.9-6.7% units lower prevalence. The question set-up has great influences on epidemiological results, and specifically questions that are set up to be excluded based on a previous no answer leads to lower prevalence compared with detached questions. Therefore, Q layout and exact wording of questions has to be carefully considered when comparing studies. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Use of proxy measures in estimating socioeconomic inequalities in malaria prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somi, Masha F; Butler, James R; Vahid, Farshid; Njau, Joseph D; Kachur, S P; Abdulla, Salim

    2008-03-01

    To present and compare socioeconomic status (SES) rankings of households using consumption and an asset-based index as two alternative measures of SES; and to compare and evaluate the performance of these two measures in multivariate analyses of the socioeconomic gradient in malaria prevalence. Data for the study come from a survey of 557 households in 25 study villages in Tanzania in 2004. Household SES was determined using consumption and an asset-based index calculated using Principal Components Analysis on a set of household variables. In multivariate analyses of malaria prevalence, we also used two other measures of disease prevalence: parasitaemia and self-report of malaria or fever in the 2 weeks before interview. Household rankings based on the two measures of SES differ substantially. In multivariate analyses, there was a statistically significant negative association between both measures of SES and parasitaemia but not between either measure of SES and self-reported malaria. Age of individual, use of a mosquito net, and wall construction were negatively and significantly associated with parasitaemia, whilst roof construction was positively associated with parasitaemia. Only age remained significant when malaria self-report was used as the measure of disease prevalence. An asset index is an effective alternative to consumption in measuring the socioeconomic gradient in malaria parasitaemia, but self-report may be an unreliable measure of malaria prevalence for this purpose.

  18. The validated hypoallergenic cosmetics rating system: its 30-year evolution and effect on the prevalence of cosmetic reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verallo-Rowell, Vermén M

    2011-01-01

    The validated hypoallergenic (vh) rating system was initiated in 1988 to try to objectively validate the "hypoallergenic" claim in cosmetics. To show how the system rates cosmetic hypoallergenicity and to compare the prevalence of cosmetic contact dermatitis (CCD) among users of regular cosmetics versus cosmetics with high VH numbers. (1) Made a VH list based on top allergens from patch-test results published by the North American Contact Dermatitis Group (NACDG) and the European Surveillance System on Contact Allergies (ESSCA); (2) reviewed global regulatory, cosmetic, drug, packaging, and manufacturing practices to show how allergens may contaminate products; (3) compared cosmetic ingredients lists against the VH list to obtain the VH rating (the more allergens absent, the higher the VH rating); and (4) obtained CCD prevalence among users of regular cosmetics versus users of cosmetics with high VH ratings. (1) Two VH lists (1988, 2003) included only cosmetic allergens in the NACDG surveys, the third (2007) included cosmetic and potential contaminant noncosmetic allergens, and the fourth (2010) adds ESSCA patch-test surveys. (2) CCD prevalence is 0.05 to 0.12% (average, 0.08%) among users of cosmetics with high VH ratings versus 2.4 to 36.3% among users of regular cosmetics. The VH rating system is shown to objectively validate the hypoallergenic cosmetics claim.

  19. Estimation of Leak Rate Through Cracks in Bimaterial Pipes in Nuclear Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jai Hak Park

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The accurate estimation of leak rate through cracks is crucial in applying the leak before break (LBB concept to pipeline design in nuclear power plants. Because of its importance, several programs were developed based on the several proposed flow models, and used in nuclear power industries. As the flow models were developed for a homogeneous pipe material, however, some difficulties were encountered in estimating leak rates for bimaterial pipes. In this paper, a flow model is proposed to estimate leak rate in bimaterial pipes based on the modified Henry–Fauske flow model. In the new flow model, different crack morphology parameters can be considered in two parts of a flow path. In addition, based on the proposed flow model, a program was developed to estimate leak rate for a crack with linearly varying cross-sectional area. Using the program, leak rates were calculated for through-thickness cracks with constant or linearly varying cross-sectional areas in a bimaterial pipe. The leak rate results were then compared and discussed in comparison with the results for a homogeneous pipe. The effects of the crack morphology parameters and the variation in cross-sectional area on the leak rate were examined and discussed.

  20. Prevalence and rupture rate of cerebral aneurysms discovered during intra-arterial chemotherapy of brain tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourekas, E C; Newton, H B; Figg, G M; Slone, H W

    2006-02-01

    During the administration of intra-arterial (IA) chemotherapy for the treatment of brain tumors (BTs), angiography may demonstrate asymptomatic, incidental cerebral aneurysms. The prevalence and complication rate of incidental aneurysms in patients undergoing IA chemotherapy remains unknown. It remains unclear whether the presence of an aneurysm represents an increased risk or a contraindication to this form of treatment. We performed a chart and angiography review of BT patients receiving IA chemotherapy over the previous 16 months. Seventy-eight patients were identified with primary (39) and metastatic (39) BTs. The cohort consisted of 40 men and 38 women, with a mean age of 47.8 years (range, 22-80 years). During initial angiography, 8 patients (10.3%) were identified with incidental cerebral aneurysms. The aneurysms were saccular and varied in size from 2-4 mm (mean, 3 mm). Seven of the 8 patients continued IA chemotherapy after detection of the aneurysm, for a total of 35 IA procedures. Of these 7 patients, 5 expired from nonaneurysmal complications (mean survival, 5.4 months; range, 2-10 months); 4 from the primary tumor, and one from an infected craniotomy site. Two patients continue to survive; one remains in treatment, and the other has completed 12 months of IA therapy. There were no aneurysmal complications during or after IA treatment in any of the BT patients. Incidental aneurysms may be more common in patients with BTs than the general population. In our patient population, there was no indication that an incidental aneurysm was reason to preclude or delay the use of IA chemotherapy.

  1. Computed tomography (CT) findings in 88 neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) patients: Prevalence rates and correlations of thoracic findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ueda, Ken, E-mail: k-ueda@radiol.med.osaka-u.ac.jp [Department of Radiology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine (Japan); Honda, Osamu [Department of Radiology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine (Japan); Satoh, Yukihisa [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases (Japan); Kawai, Misa; Gyobu, Tomoko; Kanazawa, Toru; Hidaka, Shojiro; Yanagawa, Masahiro [Department of Radiology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine (Japan); Sumikawa, Hiromitsu [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Osaka Rosai Hospital (Japan); Tomiyama, Noriyuki [Department of Radiology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine (Japan)

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • Various thoracic CT findings, including cysts, mediastinal masses, etc. were found. • Cysts show upper and peripheral dominant distribution. • The number, size, and distribution of the pulmonary cysts in NF-1 revealed significant correlation. • It is suspected that thoracic CT findings in NF-1 occur independently. - Abstract: Purpose: To evaluate the prevalence rates and the correlations of thoracic computed tomography (CT) findings of neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) in 88 patients. Materials and methods: Chest CT images of 88 NF1 patients were independently reviewed by three observers, and the CT findings were evaluated. If abnormal findings were present, their number, size, and distribution were recorded. The prevalence rate of each CT finding was calculated, and the correlations between CT findings were analyzed. Results: Of the 88 cases, 13 were positive for cysts, 16 for emphysema, 8 for nodules, 8 for GGNs (ground glass nodules), 13 for mediastinal masses, 20 for scoliosis, 44 for subcutaneous nodules, and 34 for skin nodules. Cysts showed upper and peripheral dominant distributions. Regarding 13 mediastinal masses, 2 were diagnosed as malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNSTs), 1 was diagnosed as primary lung cancer, 2 were diagnosed as lateral meningocele, 3 were diagnosed as neurofibromas, and the remaining 7 were considered neurofibromas. There was a significant correlation between the prevalence of subcutaneous nodules and that of skin nodules. Significant positive correlations were also seen between size and number, size and rate of central distribution, and number and rate of central distribution of cysts. Conclusion: Various CT findings were found in NF-1 patients, and the prevalence rates of subcutaneous and skin nodules were higher than other findings. Though the prevalence rates of subcutaneous nodules and skin nodules were significantly correlated, the other CT findings in NF-1 occurred independently. The number, size, and

  2. Computed tomography (CT) findings in 88 neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) patients: Prevalence rates and correlations of thoracic findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueda, Ken; Honda, Osamu; Satoh, Yukihisa; Kawai, Misa; Gyobu, Tomoko; Kanazawa, Toru; Hidaka, Shojiro; Yanagawa, Masahiro; Sumikawa, Hiromitsu; Tomiyama, Noriyuki

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Various thoracic CT findings, including cysts, mediastinal masses, etc. were found. • Cysts show upper and peripheral dominant distribution. • The number, size, and distribution of the pulmonary cysts in NF-1 revealed significant correlation. • It is suspected that thoracic CT findings in NF-1 occur independently. - Abstract: Purpose: To evaluate the prevalence rates and the correlations of thoracic computed tomography (CT) findings of neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) in 88 patients. Materials and methods: Chest CT images of 88 NF1 patients were independently reviewed by three observers, and the CT findings were evaluated. If abnormal findings were present, their number, size, and distribution were recorded. The prevalence rate of each CT finding was calculated, and the correlations between CT findings were analyzed. Results: Of the 88 cases, 13 were positive for cysts, 16 for emphysema, 8 for nodules, 8 for GGNs (ground glass nodules), 13 for mediastinal masses, 20 for scoliosis, 44 for subcutaneous nodules, and 34 for skin nodules. Cysts showed upper and peripheral dominant distributions. Regarding 13 mediastinal masses, 2 were diagnosed as malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNSTs), 1 was diagnosed as primary lung cancer, 2 were diagnosed as lateral meningocele, 3 were diagnosed as neurofibromas, and the remaining 7 were considered neurofibromas. There was a significant correlation between the prevalence of subcutaneous nodules and that of skin nodules. Significant positive correlations were also seen between size and number, size and rate of central distribution, and number and rate of central distribution of cysts. Conclusion: Various CT findings were found in NF-1 patients, and the prevalence rates of subcutaneous and skin nodules were higher than other findings. Though the prevalence rates of subcutaneous nodules and skin nodules were significantly correlated, the other CT findings in NF-1 occurred independently. The number, size, and

  3. High mitochondrial mutation rates estimated from deep-rooting Costa Rican pedigrees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madrigal, Lorena; Melendez-Obando, Mauricio; Villegas-Palma, Ramon; Barrantes, Ramiro; Raventos, Henrieta; Pereira, Reynaldo; Luiselli, Donata; Pettener, Davide; Barbujani, Guido

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of mutation rates for the noncoding hypervariable Region I (HVR-I) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) vary widely, depending on whether they are inferred from phylogenies (assuming that molecular evolution is clock-like) or directly from pedigrees. All pedigree-based studies so far were conducted on populations of European origin. In this paper we analyzed 19 deep-rooting pedigrees in a population of mixed origin in Costa Rica. We calculated two estimates of the HVR-I mutation rate, one considering all apparent mutations, and one disregarding changes at sites known to be mutational hot spots and eliminating genealogy branches which might be suspected to include errors, or unrecognized adoptions along the female lines. At the end of this procedure, we still observed a mutation rate equal to 1.24 × 10−6, per site per year, i.e., at least three-fold as high as estimates derived from phylogenies. Our results confirm that mutation rates observed in pedigrees are much higher than estimated assuming a neutral model of long-term HVRI evolution. We argue that, until the cause of these discrepancies will be fully understood, both lower estimates (i.e., those derived from phylogenetic comparisons) and higher, direct estimates such as those obtained in this study, should be considered when modeling evolutionary and demographic processes. PMID:22460349

  4. Estimation of Circadian Body Temperature Rhythm Based on Heart Rate in Healthy, Ambulatory Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sim, Soo Young; Joo, Kwang Min; Kim, Han Byul; Jang, Seungjin; Kim, Beomoh; Hong, Seungbum; Kim, Sungwan; Park, Kwang Suk

    2017-03-01

    Core body temperature is a reliable marker for circadian rhythm. As characteristics of the circadian body temperature rhythm change during diverse health problems, such as sleep disorder and depression, body temperature monitoring is often used in clinical diagnosis and treatment. However, the use of current thermometers in circadian rhythm monitoring is impractical in daily life. As heart rate is a physiological signal relevant to thermoregulation, we investigated the feasibility of heart rate monitoring in estimating circadian body temperature rhythm. Various heart rate parameters and core body temperature were simultaneously acquired in 21 healthy, ambulatory subjects during their routine life. The performance of regression analysis and the extended Kalman filter on daily body temperature and circadian indicator (mesor, amplitude, and acrophase) estimation were evaluated. For daily body temperature estimation, mean R-R interval (RRI), mean heart rate (MHR), or normalized MHR provided a mean root mean square error of approximately 0.40 °C in both techniques. The mesor estimation regression analysis showed better performance than the extended Kalman filter. However, the extended Kalman filter, combined with RRI or MHR, provided better accuracy in terms of amplitude and acrophase estimation. We suggest that this noninvasive and convenient method for estimating the circadian body temperature rhythm could reduce discomfort during body temperature monitoring in daily life. This, in turn, could facilitate more clinical studies based on circadian body temperature rhythm.

  5. Respiratory rate estimation from the built-in cameras of smartphones and tablets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Yunyoung; Lee, Jinseok; Chon, Ki H

    2014-04-01

    This paper presents a method for respiratory rate estimation using the camera of a smartphone, an MP3 player or a tablet. The iPhone 4S, iPad 2, iPod 5, and Galaxy S3 were used to estimate respiratory rates from the pulse signal derived from a finger placed on the camera lens of these devices. Prior to estimation of respiratory rates, we systematically investigated the optimal signal quality of these 4 devices by dividing the video camera's resolution into 12 different pixel regions. We also investigated the optimal signal quality among the red, green and blue color bands for each of these 12 pixel regions for all four devices. It was found that the green color band provided the best signal quality for all 4 devices and that the left half VGA pixel region was found to be the best choice only for iPhone 4S. For the other three devices, smaller 50 × 50 pixel regions were found to provide better or equally good signal quality than the larger pixel regions. Using the green signal and the optimal pixel regions derived from the four devices, we then investigated the suitability of the smartphones, the iPod 5 and the tablet for respiratory rate estimation using three different computational methods: the autoregressive (AR) model, variable-frequency complex demodulation (VFCDM), and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) approaches. Specifically, these time-varying spectral techniques were used to identify the frequency and amplitude modulations as they contain respiratory rate information. To evaluate the performance of the three computational methods and the pixel regions for the optimal signal quality, data were collected from 10 healthy subjects. It was found that the VFCDM method provided good estimates of breathing rates that were in the normal range (12-24 breaths/min). Both CWT and VFCDM methods provided reasonably good estimates for breathing rates that were higher than 26 breaths/min but their accuracy degraded concomitantly with increased respiratory rates

  6. Study on the Leak Rate Estimation of SG Tubes and Residual Stress Estimation based on Plastic Deformation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Jin; Chang, Yoon Suk; Lee, Dock Jin; Lee, Tae Rin; Choi, Shin Beom; Jeong, Jae Uk; Yeum, Seung Won [Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-02-15

    In this research project, a leak rate estimation model was developed for steam generator tubes with through wall cracks. The modelling was based on the leak data from 23 tube specimens. Also, the procedure of finite element analysis was developed for residual stress calculation of dissimilar metal weld in a bottom mounted instrumentation. The effect of geometric variables related with the residual stress in penetration weld part was investigated by using the developed analysis procedure. The key subjects dealt in this research are: 1. Development of leak rate estimation model for steam generator tubes with through wall cracks 2. Development of the program which can perform the structure and leakage integrity evaluation for steam generator tubes 3. Development of analysis procedure for bottom mounted instrumentation weld residual stress 4. Analysis on the effects of geometric variables on weld residual stress It is anticipated that the technologies developed in this study are applicable for integrity estimation of steam generator tubes and weld part in NPP.

  7. Are cannabis prevalence estimates comparable across countries and regions? A cross-cultural validation using search engine query data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steppan, Martin; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Siciliano, Valeria

    2013-01-01

    Prevalence estimation of cannabis use is usually based on self-report data. Although there is evidence on the reliability of this data source, its cross-cultural validity is still a major concern. External objective criteria are needed for this purpose. In this study, cannabis-related search engine query data are used as an external criterion. Data on cannabis use were taken from the 2007 European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD). Provincial data came from three Italian nation-wide studies using the same methodology (2006-2008; ESPAD-Italia). Information on cannabis-related search engine query data was based on Google search volume indices (GSI). (1) Reliability analysis was conducted for GSI. (2) Latent measurement models of "true" cannabis prevalence were tested using perceived availability, web-based cannabis searches and self-reported prevalence as indicators. (3) Structure models were set up to test the influences of response tendencies and geographical position (latitude, longitude). In order to test the stability of the models, analyses were conducted on country level (Europe, US) and on provincial level in Italy. Cannabis-related GSI were found to be highly reliable and constant over time. The overall measurement model was highly significant in both data sets. On country level, no significant effects of response bias indicators and geographical position on perceived availability, web-based cannabis searches and self-reported prevalence were found. On provincial level, latitude had a significant positive effect on availability indicating that perceived availability of cannabis in northern Italy was higher than expected from the other indicators. Although GSI showed weaker associations with cannabis use than perceived availability, the findings underline the external validity and usefulness of search engine query data as external criteria. The findings suggest an acceptable relative comparability of national (provincial) prevalence

  8. Transfusion rate and prevalence of unexpected red blood cell alloantibodies in women undergoing hysterectomy for benign disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoestesen, Lisbeth M; Rasmussen, Kjeld L; Lauszus, Finn F

    2011-01-01

    To determine transfusion rates, risk factors for transfusion and the prevalence of unexpected red blood cell alloantibodies in women undergoing hysterectomy for benign disease. In addition, we aimed to evaluate the necessity of the pretransfusion testing for red blood cell alloantibodies....

  9. The effect of somatic symptom attribution on the prevalence rate of depression and anxiety among nursing home patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smalbrugge, M.; Pot, A.M.; Jongenelis, L.; Beekman, A.T.F.; Eefsting, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    The validity of diagnostic psychiatric instruments for depression and anxiety disorders may be compromised among patients with complex physical illness and disability. The objective of this study was to determine the effect on the prevalence rate of depression and anxiety in a nursing home

  10. Rare chromosome abnormalities, prevalence and prenatal diagnosis rates from population-based congenital anomaly registers in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wellesley, Diana; Dolk, Helen; Boyd, Patricia A.; Greenlees, Ruth; Haeusler, Martin; Nelen, Vera; Garne, Ester; Khoshnood, Babak; Doray, Berenice; Rissmann, Anke; Mullaney, Carmel; Calzolari, Elisa; Bakker, Marian; Salvador, Joaquin; Addor, Marie-Claude; Draper, Elizabeth; Rankin, Judith; Tucker, David

    The aim of this study is to quantify the prevalence and types of rare chromosome abnormalities (RCAs) in Europe for 2000-2006 inclusive, and to describe prenatal diagnosis rates and pregnancy outcome. Data held by the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies database were analysed on all the

  11. A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvestro Daniele

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification. Results We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae and Lupinus (Fabaceae. In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification. Conclusions Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling.

  12. Individual differences in rate of encoding predict estimates of visual short-term memory capacity (K).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jannati, Ali; McDonald, John J; Di Lollo, Vincent

    2015-06-01

    The capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) is commonly estimated by K scores obtained with a change-detection task. Contrary to common belief, K may be influenced not only by capacity but also by the rate at which stimuli are encoded into VSTM. Experiment 1 showed that, contrary to earlier conclusions, estimates of VSTM capacity obtained with a change-detection task are constrained by temporal limitations. In Experiment 2, we used change-detection and backward-masking tasks to obtain separate within-subject estimates of K and of rate of encoding, respectively. A median split based on rate of encoding revealed significantly higher K estimates for fast encoders. Moreover, a significant correlation was found between K and the estimated rate of encoding. The present findings raise the prospect that the reported relationships between K and such cognitive concepts as fluid intelligence may be mediated not only by VSTM capacity but also by rate of encoding. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. ANALYSIS OF PREVALENCE, HOSPITALIZATION RATE AND MORTALITY LEVELS RELATED TO GASTROINTESTINAL DISORDERS IN THE MOSCOW REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Gurov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Rationale: According to prognosis made by World Health Organization experts, by mid-21st century gastrointestinal disorders will be among the leaders, partially due to lifestyle of a modern man (stress, unhealthy diet, lack of physical exercise, unhealthy habits, environmental pollution, genetically modified and low quality foods.Aim: To provide informational support of activities aimed at improvement of organization of medical care to patients with gastrointestinal disorders and at further development of specialized gastroenterological care to the population of the Moscow Region, its better availability and higher efficacy and quality.Materials and methods: We calculated and analyzed gastrointestinal morbidity in 2014 (according to referrals among the main age categories (children, adolescents, adults of the population of the Moscow Region, as well as hospitalization rates and in-hospital mortality. The information was taken from the Federal Statistical Surveillance report forms # 12 and # 14.Results: In 2014, the highest prevalence of gastrointestinal disorders was registered in adolescents, being by 42.7% higher than that in adults and by 11.7% higher than that in children. The leading causes of referrals in all age categories were gastritis and duodenitis, as well as gall bladder and bile tract disorders. The structure of morbidity was characterized by a high proportion of pancreatic disorders, stomach and duodenal ulcers in adults. The rate of hospitalizations due to gastrointestinal disorders was 17.8 cases per 1000 patients, being 17.4‰ in adults and 19.8‰ in children and adolescents. The main reasons for hospitalization in adults were diseases of pancreas (23.9% of all hospitalization due to gastrointestinal disorders, gall bladder and bile tract disorders (16.3%. In children and adolescents, the main reasons for hospitalizations were intestinal disorders (36.4%, gastritis and duodenitis (17.9%. In-hospital mortality from

  14. Sequential multi-nuclide emission rate estimation method based on gamma dose rate measurement for nuclear emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xiaole; Raskob, Wolfgang; Landman, Claudia; Trybushnyi, Dmytro; Li, Yu

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Sequentially reconstruct multi-nuclide emission using gamma dose rate measurements. • Incorporate a priori ratio of nuclides into the background error covariance matrix. • Sequentially augment and update the estimation and the background error covariance. • Suppress the generation of negative estimations for the sequential method. • Evaluate the new method with twin experiments based on the JRODOS system. - Abstract: In case of a nuclear accident, the source term is typically not known but extremely important for the assessment of the consequences to the affected population. Therefore the assessment of the potential source term is of uppermost importance for emergency response. A fully sequential method, derived from a regularized weighted least square problem, is proposed to reconstruct the emission and composition of a multiple-nuclide release using gamma dose rate measurement. The a priori nuclide ratios are incorporated into the background error covariance (BEC) matrix, which is dynamically augmented and sequentially updated. The negative estimations in the mathematical algorithm are suppressed by utilizing artificial zero-observations (with large uncertainties) to simultaneously update the state vector and BEC. The method is evaluated by twin experiments based on the JRodos system. The results indicate that the new method successfully reconstructs the emission and its uncertainties. Accurate a priori ratio accelerates the analysis process, which obtains satisfactory results with only limited number of measurements, otherwise it needs more measurements to generate reasonable estimations. The suppression of negative estimation effectively improves the performance, especially for the situation with poor a priori information, where it is more prone to the generation of negative values.

  15. Sequential multi-nuclide emission rate estimation method based on gamma dose rate measurement for nuclear emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xiaole, E-mail: zhangxiaole10@outlook.com [Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, D-76021 (Germany); Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084 (China); Raskob, Wolfgang; Landman, Claudia; Trybushnyi, Dmytro; Li, Yu [Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, D-76021 (Germany)

    2017-03-05

    Highlights: • Sequentially reconstruct multi-nuclide emission using gamma dose rate measurements. • Incorporate a priori ratio of nuclides into the background error covariance matrix. • Sequentially augment and update the estimation and the background error covariance. • Suppress the generation of negative estimations for the sequential method. • Evaluate the new method with twin experiments based on the JRODOS system. - Abstract: In case of a nuclear accident, the source term is typically not known but extremely important for the assessment of the consequences to the affected population. Therefore the assessment of the potential source term is of uppermost importance for emergency response. A fully sequential method, derived from a regularized weighted least square problem, is proposed to reconstruct the emission and composition of a multiple-nuclide release using gamma dose rate measurement. The a priori nuclide ratios are incorporated into the background error covariance (BEC) matrix, which is dynamically augmented and sequentially updated. The negative estimations in the mathematical algorithm are suppressed by utilizing artificial zero-observations (with large uncertainties) to simultaneously update the state vector and BEC. The method is evaluated by twin experiments based on the JRodos system. The results indicate that the new method successfully reconstructs the emission and its uncertainties. Accurate a priori ratio accelerates the analysis process, which obtains satisfactory results with only limited number of measurements, otherwise it needs more measurements to generate reasonable estimations. The suppression of negative estimation effectively improves the performance, especially for the situation with poor a priori information, where it is more prone to the generation of negative values.

  16. Estimation of Uncertainty in Tracer Gas Measurement of Air Change Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsushi Iizuka

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of

  17. Estimation of age-specific rates of reactivation and immune boosting of the varicella zoster virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Marinelli

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Studies into the impact of vaccination against the varicella zoster virus (VZV have increasingly focused on herpes zoster (HZ, which is believed to be increasing in vaccinated populations with decreasing infection pressure. This idea can be traced back to Hope-Simpson's hypothesis, in which a person's immune status determines the likelihood that he/she will develop HZ. Immunity decreases over time, and can be boosted by contact with a person experiencing varicella (exogenous boosting or by a reactivation attempt of the virus (endogenous boosting. Here we use transmission models to estimate age-specific rates of reactivation and immune boosting, exogenous as well as endogenous, using zoster incidence data from the Netherlands (2002–2011, n = 7026. The boosting and reactivation rates are estimated with splines, enabling these quantities to be optimally informed by the data. The analyses show that models with high levels of exogenous boosting and estimated or zero endogenous boosting, constant rate of loss of immunity, and reactivation rate increasing with age (to more than 5% per year in the elderly give the best fit to the data. Estimates of the rates of immune boosting and reactivation are strongly correlated. This has important implications as these parameters determine the fraction of the population with waned immunity. We conclude that independent evidence on rates of immune boosting and reactivation in persons with waned immunity are needed to robustly predict the impact of varicella vaccination on the incidence of HZ.

  18. Estimating the Backup Reaction Wheel Orientation Using Reaction Wheel Spin Rates Flight Telemetry from a Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizvi, Farheen

    2013-01-01

    A report describes a model that estimates the orientation of the backup reaction wheel using the reaction wheel spin rates telemetry from a spacecraft. Attitude control via the reaction wheel assembly (RWA) onboard a spacecraft uses three reaction wheels (one wheel per axis) and a backup to accommodate any wheel degradation throughout the course of the mission. The spacecraft dynamics prediction depends upon the correct knowledge of the reaction wheel orientations. Thus, it is vital to determine the actual orientation of the reaction wheels such that the correct spacecraft dynamics can be predicted. The conservation of angular momentum is used to estimate the orientation of the backup reaction wheel from the prime and backup reaction wheel spin rates data. The method is applied in estimating the orientation of the backup wheel onboard the Cassini spacecraft. The flight telemetry from the March 2011 prime and backup RWA swap activity on Cassini is used to obtain the best estimate for the backup reaction wheel orientation.

  19. ESR dating of elephant teeth and radiation dose rate estimation in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taisoo Chong; Ohta, Hiroyuki; Nakashima, Yoshiyuki; Iida, Takao; Saisho, Hideo

    1989-01-01

    Chemical analysis of 238 U, 232 Th and 40 K in the dentine as well as enamel of elephant tooth fossil has been carried out in order to estimate the internal absorbed dose rate of the specimens, which was estimated to be (39±4) mrad/y on the assumption of early uptake model of radionuclides. The external radiation dose rate in the soil including the contribution from cosmic rays was also estimated to be (175±18) mrad/y with the help of γ-ray spectroscopic techniques of the soil samples in which the specimens were buried. The 60 Co γ-ray equivalent accumulated dose of (2±0.2) x 10 4 rad for the tooth enamel gave ''ESR age'' of (9±2) x 10 4 y, which falls in the geologically estimated range between 3 x 10 4 and 30 x 10 4 y before the present. (author)

  20. Minimax Rate-optimal Estimation of High-dimensional Covariance Matrices with Incomplete Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, T Tony; Zhang, Anru

    2016-09-01

    Missing data occur frequently in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we consider estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices in the presence of missing observations under a general missing completely at random model in the sense that the missingness is not dependent on the values of the data. Based on incomplete data, estimators for bandable and sparse covariance matrices are proposed and their theoretical and numerical properties are investigated. Minimax rates of convergence are established under the spectral norm loss and the proposed estimators are shown to be rate-optimal under mild regularity conditions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the estimators perform well numerically. The methods are also illustrated through an application to data from four ovarian cancer studies. The key technical tools developed in this paper are of independent interest and potentially useful for a range of related problems in high-dimensional statistical inference with missing data.

  1. Minimax Rate-optimal Estimation of High-dimensional Covariance Matrices with Incomplete Data*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, T. Tony; Zhang, Anru

    2016-01-01

    Missing data occur frequently in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we consider estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices in the presence of missing observations under a general missing completely at random model in the sense that the missingness is not dependent on the values of the data. Based on incomplete data, estimators for bandable and sparse covariance matrices are proposed and their theoretical and numerical properties are investigated. Minimax rates of convergence are established under the spectral norm loss and the proposed estimators are shown to be rate-optimal under mild regularity conditions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the estimators perform well numerically. The methods are also illustrated through an application to data from four ovarian cancer studies. The key technical tools developed in this paper are of independent interest and potentially useful for a range of related problems in high-dimensional statistical inference with missing data. PMID:27777471

  2. Statewide prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis and rate of adrenaline autoinjector activation in Victorian government schools, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loke, Paxton; Koplin, Jennifer; Beck, Cara; Field, Michael; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Tang, Mimi L K; Allen, Katrina J

    2016-08-01

    The prevalence of school students at risk of anaphylaxis in Victoria is unknown and has not been previously studied. Similarly, rates of adrenaline autoinjector usage in the school environment have yet to be determined given increasing prescription rates. We sought to determine time trends in prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis across all year levels and the annual usage rate of adrenaline autoinjectors in the school setting relative to the number of students at risk of anaphylaxis. Statewide surveys from more than 1,500 government schools including more than 550,000 students were used and prevalence rates (%) with 95% CIs were calculated. The overall prevalence of students at risk of anaphylaxis has increased 41% from 0.98% (95% CI, 0.95-1.01) in 2009 to 1.38% (95% CI, 1.35-1.41) in 2014. There was a significant drop in reporting of anaphylaxis risk with transition from the final year of primary school to the first year of secondary school, suggesting a change in parental reporting of anaphylaxis risk among secondary school students. The number of adrenaline autoinjectors activated per 1000 students at risk of anaphylaxis ranged from 6 to 8 per year, with consistently higher activation use in secondary school students than in primary school students. Statewide prevalence of anaphylaxis risk has increased in children attending Victorian government schools. However, adrenaline autoinjector activation has remained fairly stable despite known increase in the rates of prescription. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimating blue whale skin isotopic incorporation rates and baleen growth rates: Implications for assessing diet and movement patterns in mysticetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busquets-Vass, Geraldine; Newsome, Seth D.; Calambokidis, John; Serra-Valente, Gabriela; Jacobsen, Jeff K.; Aguíñiga-García, Sergio; Gendron, Diane

    2017-01-01

    Stable isotope analysis in mysticete skin and baleen plates has been repeatedly used to assess diet and movement patterns. Accurate interpretation of isotope data depends on understanding isotopic incorporation rates for metabolically active tissues and growth rates for metabolically inert tissues. The aim of this research was to estimate isotopic incorporation rates in blue whale skin and baleen growth rates by using natural gradients in baseline isotope values between oceanic regions. Nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) isotope values of blue whale skin and potential prey were analyzed from three foraging zones (Gulf of California, California Current System, and Costa Rica Dome) in the northeast Pacific from 1996–2015. We also measured δ15N and δ13C values along the lengths of baleen plates collected from six blue whales stranded in the 1980s and 2000s. Skin was separated into three strata: basale, externum, and sloughed skin. A mean (±SD) skin isotopic incorporation rate of 163±91 days was estimated by fitting a generalized additive model of the seasonal trend in δ15N values of skin strata collected in the Gulf of California and the California Current System. A mean (±SD) baleen growth rate of 15.5±2.2 cm y-1 was estimated by using seasonal oscillations in δ15N values from three whales. These oscillations also showed that individual whales have a high fidelity to distinct foraging zones in the northeast Pacific across years. The absence of oscillations in δ15N values of baleen sub-samples from three male whales suggests these individuals remained within a specific zone for several years prior to death. δ13C values of both whale tissues (skin and baleen) and potential prey were not distinct among foraging zones. Our results highlight the importance of considering tissue isotopic incorporation and growth rates when studying migratory mysticetes and provide new insights into the individual movement strategies of blue whales. PMID:28562625

  4. Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Maso, L.; Guzzinati, S.; Buzzoni, C.; Capocaccia, R.; Serraino, D.; Caldarella, A.; Dei Tos, A. P.; Falcini, F.; Autelitano, M.; Masanotti, G.; Ferretti, S.; Tisano, F.; Tirelli, U.; Crocetti, E.; De Angelis, R.; Virdone, S.; Zucchetto, A.; Gigli, A.; Francisci, S.; Baili, P.; Gatta, G.; Castaing, M.; Zanetti, R.; Contiero, P.; Bidoli, E.; Vercelli, M.; Michiara, M.; Federico, M.; Senatore, G.; Pannozzo, F.; Vicentini, M.; Bulatko, A.; Pirino, D. R.; Gentilini, M.; Fusco, M.; Giacomin, A.; Fanetti, A. C.; Cusimano, R.

    2014-01-01

    Background Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. Patients and methods Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. Results The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged cancers to cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained 25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. Conclusions A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. PMID:25149707

  5. Estimation of prognosis and prevalence of retinitis pigmentosa and Usher syndrome in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grøndahl, J

    1987-04-01

    Retinitis pigmentosa was diagnosed in 101 persons from 53 families. The prognosis for visual function was most favourable for the autosomal dominant group (38 patients from 8 families). The autosomal recessive group (40 patients from 25 families) and the 19 solitary cases were very heterogeneous, with prognosis ranging from favourable to very bad. There was a higher intrafamiliar correlation in the autosomal recessive than in the autosomal dominant group. In 28 patients from 18 families with Usher syndrome, almost all had good visual function until 30 years of age, and few had useful visual function after the age of 50. The age when the patients were registered varied between the different genetic types of retinitis pigmentosa, reflecting differences in prognosis. Therefore, ascertainment probability and prevalence were calculated for each genetic group separately. The prevalence of retinitis pigmentosa in Norway, all genetic groups included, was calculated to be 1/4440, the autosomal dominant type of the disease being the most frequent. The prevalence of Usher syndrome was calculated to be 3.6/100,000. Both retinitis pigmentosa and Usher syndrome were more prevalent in Laps.

  6. Estimation of Mental Disorders Prevalence in High School Students Using Small Area Methods: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Soltanian

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Adolescence is one of the most important periods in the course of human evolution and the prevalence of mental disorders among adolescence in different regions of Iran, especially in southern Iran. Objectives This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of mental disorders among high school students in Bushehr province, south of Iran. Methods In this cross-sectional study, 286 high school students were recruited by a multi-stage random sampling in Bushehr province in 2015. A general health questionnaire (GHQ-28 was used to assess mental disorders. The small area method, under the hierarchical Bayesian approach, was used to determine the prevalence of mental disorders and data analysis. Results From 286 questionnaires only 182 were completely filed and evaluated (the response rate was 70.5%. Of the students, 58.79% and 41.21% were male and female, respectively. Of all students, the prevalence of mental disorders in Bushehr, Dayyer, Deylam, Kangan, Dashtestan, Tangestan, Genaveh, and Dashty were 0.48, 0.42, 0.45, 0.52, 0.41, 0.47, 0.42, and 0.43, respectively. Conclusions Based on this study, the prevalence of mental disorders among adolescents was increasing in Bushehr Province counties. The lack of a national policy in this way is a serious obstacle to mental health and wellbeing access.

  7. Oxygen transfer rate estimation in oxidation ditches from clean water measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abusam, A; Keesman, K J; Meinema, K; Van Straten, G

    2001-06-01

    Standard methods for the determination of oxygen transfer rate are based on assumptions that are not valid for oxidation ditches. This paper presents a realistic and simple new method to be used in the estimation of oxygen transfer rate in oxidation ditches from clean water measurements. The new method uses a loop-of-CSTRs model, which can be easily incorporated within control algorithms, for modelling oxidation ditches. Further, this method assumes zero oxygen transfer rates (KLa) in the unaerated CSTRs. Application of a formal estimation procedure to real data revealed that the aeration constant (k = KLaVA, where VA is the volume of the aerated CSTR) can be determined significantly more accurately than KLa and VA. Therefore, the new method estimates k instead of KLa. From application to real data, this method proved to be more accurate than the commonly used Dutch standard method (STORA, 1980).

  8. Lichen forage ingestion rates of free-roaming caribou estimated with fallout cesium-137

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, W.C.; Whicker, F.W.; Lipscomb, J.F.

    1975-01-01

    Lichen forage ingestion rates of free-roaming caribou herds in northern Alaska during 1963 to 1970 were estimated by applying a two-compartment, eight parameter cesium-137 kinetics model to measured fallout 137 Cs concentrations in lichen and caribou. Estimates for winter equilibrium periods (January to April) for each year ranged from 3.7 to 6.9 kg dry weight lichens per day for adult female caribou. Further refinement of these estimations were obtained by calculating probabilistic distributions of intake rates by stochastic processes based upon the mean and standard error intervals of the eight parameters during 1965 and 1968. A computer program generated 1,000 randomly sampled values within each of the eight parameter distributions. Results substantiate the contention that lichen forage ingestion rates by free-roaming caribou are significantly greater than previously held

  9. Time delay estimation in a reverberant environment by low rate sampling of impulsive acoustic sources

    KAUST Repository

    Omer, Muhammad

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a new method of time delay estimation (TDE) using low sample rates of an impulsive acoustic source in a room environment. The proposed method finds the time delay from the room impulse response (RIR) which makes it robust against room reverberations. The RIR is considered a sparse phenomenon and a recently proposed sparse signal reconstruction technique called orthogonal clustering (OC) is utilized for its estimation from the low rate sampled received signal. The arrival time of the direct path signal at a pair of microphones is identified from the estimated RIR and their difference yields the desired time delay. Low sampling rates reduce the hardware and computational complexity and decrease the communication between the microphones and the centralized location. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by numerical simulations and experimental results. © 2012 IEEE.

  10. Estimation of water erosion rates using RUSLE3D in Alicante province (Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia Rodríguez, Jose Luis; Giménez Suárez, Martín Cruz; Arraiza Bermudez-Cañete, Maria Paz

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was the estimation of current and potential water erosion rates in Alicante Province using RUSLE3D (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation-3D) model with Geographical Information System (GIS) support by request from the Valencia Waste Energy Use. RUSLE3D uses a new methodology for topographic factor estimation (LS factor) based on the impact of flow convergence allowing better assessment of sediment distribution detached by water erosion. In RUSLE3D equation, the effec...

  11. Optimization of hierarchical 3DRS motion estimators for picture rate conversion

    OpenAIRE

    Heinrich, A.; Bartels, C.L.L.; Vleuten, van der, R.J.; Cordes, C.N.; Haan, de, G.

    2010-01-01

    There is a continuous pressure to lower the implementation complexity and improve the quality of motion-compensated picture rate conversion methods. Since the concept of hierarchy can be advantageously applied to many motion estimation methods, we have extended and improved the current state-of-the-art motion estimation method in this field, 3-Dimensional Recursive Search (3DRS), with this concept. We have explored the extensive parameter space and present an analysis of the importance and in...

  12. Demographic aspects of Chrysomya megacephala (Diptera, Calliphoridae) adults maintained under experimental conditions: reproductive rate estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Marcelo Henrique de; Von Zuben, Claudio José

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work was to evaluate some aspects of the populational ecology of Chrysomya megacephala, analyzing demographic aspects of adults kept under experimental conditions. Cages of C. megacephala adults were prepared with four different larval densities (100, 200, 400 and 800). For each cage, two tables were made: one with demographic parameters for the life expectancy estimate at the initial age (e0), and another with the reproductive rate and average reproduction age estimates...

  13. A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jie-Hao; Zhao, Zi-Qian; Shi, Ji-Yun; Zhao, Chong

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR) estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or re...

  14. Estimating the Effective Lower Bound for the Czech National Bank's Policy Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Kolcunova, Dominika; Havranek, Tomas

    2018-01-01

    The paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound for the Czech National Bank's policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be more convenient than deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated based on storage, the insurance and transportation costs of cash and the costs associated with the loss of the convenience of cashless payments and complemented with the estimate based on interest charges, which p...

  15. Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] inference from this model, study designs should seek a minimum of 25 animals of each marking type observed (marked or observed via telemetry) in each time period and geographic stratum.

  16. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  17. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2008-08-28

    Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations