Impact of Disease Prevalence Adjustment on Hospitalization Rates for Chronic Ambulatory Care-Sensitive Conditions in Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollmanns, Johannes; Romano, Patrick S; Weyermann, Maria; Geraedts, Max; Drösler, Saskia E

2018-04-01

To explore effects of disease prevalence adjustment on ambulatory care-sensitive hospitalization (ACSH) rates used for quality comparisons. County-level hospital administrative data on adults discharged from German hospitals in 2011 and prevalence estimates based on administrative ambulatory diagnosis data were used. A retrospective cross-sectional study using in- and outpatient secondary data was performed. Hospitalization data for hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma were obtained from the German Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) database. Prevalence estimates were obtained from the German Central Research Institute of Ambulatory Health Care. Crude hospitalization rates varied substantially across counties (coefficients of variation [CV] 28-37 percent across conditions); this variation was reduced by prevalence adjustment (CV 21-28 percent). Prevalence explained 40-50 percent of the observed variation (r = 0.65-0.70) in ACSH rates for all conditions except asthma (r = 0.07). Between 30 percent and 38 percent of areas moved into or outside condition-specific control limits with prevalence adjustment. Unadjusted ACSH rates should be used with caution for high-stakes public reporting as differences in prevalence may have a marked impact. Prevalence adjustment should be considered in models analyzing ACSH. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Estimates of Incidence and Prevalence of Visual Impairment, Low Vision, and Blindness in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Tiffany; Friedman, David S; Bradley, Chris; Massof, Robert

2018-01-01

Updated estimates of the prevalence and incidence rates of low vision and blindness are needed to inform policy makers and develop plans to meet the future demands for low vision rehabilitation services. To provide updated estimates of the incidence and prevalence of low vision and blindness in the United States. Visual acuity measurements as a function of age from the 2007-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with representation of racial and ethnic groups, were used to estimate the prevalence and incidence of visual impairments. Data from 6016 survey participants, ranging in age from younger than 18 years to older than 45 years, were obtained to estimate prevalence rates for different age groups. Incidence and prevalence rates of low vision (best-corrected visual acuity [BCVA] in the better-seeing eye of United States were estimated, using the 2010 US census data by age, from the rate models applied to the census projections for 2017, 2030, and 2050. Data were collected from November 1, 2007, to October 31, 2008. Data analysis took place from March 31, 2016, to March 19, 2017. Prevalence and incidence rates of low vision and blindness in the United States. Of the 6016 people in the study, 1714 (28.4%) were younger than 18 years of age, 2358 (39.1%) were 18 to 44 years of age, and 1944 (32.3%) were 45 years of age or older. There were 2888 male (48%) and 3128 female (52%) participants. The prevalence of low vision and blindness for older adults (≥45 years) in the United States in 2017 is estimated to be 3 894 406 persons (95% CI, 3 034 442-4 862 549 persons) with a BCVA less than 20/40, 1 483 703 persons (95% CI, 968 656-2 370 513 persons) with a BCVA less than 20/60, and 1 082 790 persons (95% CI, 637 771-1 741 864 persons) with a BCVA of 20/200 or less. The estimated 2017 annual incidence (projected from 2010 census data) of low vision and blindness among older adults (≥45 years) in the United States is 481�

Refusal bias in the estimation of HIV prevalence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssens, Wendy; van der Gaag, Jacques; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F.; Tanović, Zlata

2014-01-01

In 2007, UNAIDS corrected estimates of global HIV prevalence downward from 40 million to 33 million based on a methodological shift from sentinel surveillance to population-based surveys. Since then, population-based surveys are considered the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence. However,

Burden of type 2 diabetes in Mexico: past, current and future prevalence and incidence rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Meza, Rafael; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

2015-12-01

Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960-2012), and birth-cohort (1920-1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010-2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65-68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57-59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960-2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7-22.5% by 2050, affecting 15-25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts.

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Meyer, Andreas L S; Wiens, John J

2018-01-01

Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method-of-moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Prevalence Rates of Mental Disorders in Chilean Prisons

Science.gov (United States)

Mundt, Adrian P.; Alvarado, Rubén; Fritsch, Rosemarie; Poblete, Catalina; Villagra, Carolina; Kastner, Sinja; Priebe, Stefan

2013-01-01

Objective High rates of mental disorders have been reported for prison populations worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The present study aimed to establish prevalence rates of mental disorders in Chilean prisoners. Method A nationwide random sample of 1008 prisoners was assessed in 7 penal institutions throughout Chile. Twelve-month prevalence rates were established using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) and compared to the prevalence rates previously published for the general population. Results Prevalence rates were 12.2% (95% CI, 10.2-14.1) for any substance use disorder, 8.3% (6.6-10.0) for anxiety disorders, 8.1% (6.5-9.8) for affective disorders, 5.7% (4.4-7.1) for intermittent explosive disorders, 2.2% (1.4-3.2) for ADHD of the adult, and 0.8% (0.3-1.3) for non-affective psychoses. Significantly higher prevalence rates among prisoners as compared to the general population in Chile were seen for major depression (6.1% vs. 3.7% males, Z=2.58, pprison population than in the general population. One-year prevalence rates of alcohol abuse (2.3% vs. 3.9%; Z=-2.04; pprison population than in the general population. Conclusions Service provision for prison populations in Chile should acknowledge high rates of depression and illicit drug use. Overall prevalence rates are lower than reported in other LMICs. Previous research in prison populations in LMICs might have overestimated prevalence rates of mental disorders. PMID:23894415

National and subnational hypertension prevalence estimates for the Republic of Ireland: better outcome and risk factor data are needed to produce better prevalence estimates.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Barron, Steve

2014-01-10

Hypertension is a global public health challenge. National prevalence estimates can conceal important differences in prevalence in subnational areas. This paper aims to develop a consistent set of national and subnational estimates of the prevalence of hypertension in a country with limited data for subnational areas.

Estimating glomerular filtration rate in a population-based study

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Anoop Shankar

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Anoop Shankar1, Kristine E Lee2, Barbara EK Klein2, Paul Muntner3, Peter C Brazy4, Karen J Cruickshanks2,5, F Javier Nieto5, Lorraine G Danforth2, Carla R Schubert2,5, Michael Y Tsai6, Ronald Klein21Department of Community Medicine, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown, WV, USA; 2Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, 4Department of Medicine, 5Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI, USA; 3Department of Community Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, NY, USA; 6Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USABackground: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR-estimating equations are used to determine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD in population-based studies. However, it has been suggested that since the commonly used GFR equations were originally developed from samples of patients with CKD, they underestimate GFR in healthy populations. Few studies have made side-by-side comparisons of the effect of various estimating equations on the prevalence estimates of CKD in a general population sample.Patients and methods: We examined a population-based sample comprising adults from Wisconsin (age, 43–86 years; 56% women. We compared the prevalence of CKD, defined as a GFR of <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 estimated from serum creatinine, by applying various commonly used equations including the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD equation, Cockcroft–Gault (CG equation, and the Mayo equation. We compared the performance of these equations against the CKD definition of cystatin C >1.23 mg/L.Results: We found that the prevalence of CKD varied widely among different GFR equations. Although the prevalence of CKD was 17.2% with the MDRD equation and 16.5% with the CG equation, it was only 4.8% with the Mayo equation. Only 24% of those identified to have GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1

Calculation of prevalence estimates through differential equations: application to stroke-related disability.

Science.gov (United States)

Mar, Javier; Sainz-Ezkerra, María; Moler-Cuiral, Jose Antonio

2008-01-01

Neurological diseases now make up 6.3% of the global burden of disease mainly because they cause disability. To assess disability, prevalence estimates are needed. The objective of this study is to apply a method based on differential equations to calculate the prevalence of stroke-related disability. On the basis of a flow diagram, a set of differential equations for each age group was constructed. The linear system was solved analytically and numerically. The parameters of the system were obtained from the literature. The model was validated and calibrated by comparison with previous results. The stroke prevalence rate per 100,000 men was 828, and the rate for stroke-related disability was 331. The rates steadily rose with age, but the group between the ages of 65 and 74 years had the highest total number of individuals. Differential equations are useful to represent the natural history of neurological diseases and to make possible the calculation of the prevalence for the various states of disability. In our experience, when compared with the results obtained by Markov models, the benefit of the continuous use of time outweighs the mathematical requirements of our model. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

HIV infection among tuberculosis patients in Vietnam: prevalence and impact on tuberculosis notification rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Thanh, D H; Sy, D N; Linh, N D; Hoan, T M; Dien, H T; Thuy, T B; Hoa, N P; Tung, L B; Cobelens, F

2010-08-01

Vietnam has an emerging human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic (estimated population prevalence 0.5%), but valid data on HIV prevalence among tuberculosis (TB) patients are limited. Recent increases in TB notification rates among young adults may be related to HIV. To assess the prevalence of HIV infection among smear-positive TB patients in six provinces with relatively high HIV population prevalence in Vietnam. All patients who registered for treatment of smear-positive TB during the fourth quarter of 2005 were offered HIV testing. Of the 1217 TB patients included in the study, 100 (8.2%) tested HIV-positive. HIV prevalence varied between 2% and 17% in the provinces, and was strongly associated with age Vietnam, HIV infection is concentrated in drug users, as well as in specific geographic areas where it has considerable impact on TB notification rates among men aged 15-34 years.

Prevalence estimates of chronic kidney disease in Canada: results of a nationally representative survey

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Paul; Vasa, Priya; Brenner, Darren; Iglar, Karl; McFarlane, Phil; Morrison, Howard; Badawi, Alaa

2013-01-01

Background: Chronic kidney disease is an important risk factor for death and cardiovascular-related morbidity, but estimates to date of its prevalence in Canada have generally been extrapolated from the prevalence of end-stage renal disease. We used direct measures of kidney function collected from a nationally representative survey population to estimate the prevalence of chronic kidney disease among Canadian adults. Methods: We examined data for 3689 adult participants of cycle 1 of the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2007–2009) for the presence of chronic kidney disease. We also calculated the age-standardized prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors by chronic kidney disease group. We cross-tabulated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with albuminuria status. Results: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease during the period 2007–2009 was 12.5%, representing about 3 million Canadian adults. The estimated prevalence of stage 3–5 disease was 3.1% (0.73 million adults) and albuminuria 10.3% (2.4 million adults). The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and hypertriglyceridemia were all significantly higher among adults with chronic kidney disease than among those without it. The prevalence of albuminuria was high, even among those whose eGFR was 90 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or greater (10.1%) and those without diabetes or hypertension (9.3%). Awareness of kidney dysfunction among adults with stage 3–5 chronic kidney disease was low (12.0%). Interpretation: The prevalence of kidney dysfunction was substantial in the survey population, including individuals without hypertension or diabetes, conditions most likely to prompt screening for kidney dysfunction. These findings highlight the potential for missed opportunities for early intervention and secondary prevention of chronic kidney disease. PMID:23649413

Period Prevalence and Reporting Rate of Needlestick Injuries to Nurses in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rezaei, Satar; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Zandian, Hamed; Fathi, Afshin; Nouri, Bijan

2017-08-01

The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to provide a precise estimate of the period prevalence of needlestick injuries (NSI) among nurses working in hospitals in Iran and the reporting rate of NSI to nurse managers. We searched both international (PubMed, Scopus and the Institute for Scientific Information) and Iranian (Scientific Information Database, Iranmedex and Magiran) scientific databases to find studies published from 2000 to 2016 of NSI among Iranian nurses. The following keywords in Persian and English were used: "needle-stick" or "needle stick" or "needlestick," with and without "injury" or "injuries," "prevalence" or "frequency," "nurses" or "nursing staff," and "Iran." In a sample of 21 articles with 6,480 participants, we estimated that the overall 1-year period prevalence of NSI was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35-53%) among Iranian nurses. The overall 1-year period prevalence of reporting NSI to nurse managers was 42% (95% CI, 33-52%). In meta-regression analysis, sample size, mean age, years of experience, and gender ratio were not associated with prevalence of NSI or reporting rate. The year of data collection was positively associated with period prevalence of NSI (p managers. Results indicated a high NSI period prevalence and low NSI reporting rate among nurses in Iran. Thus, effective interventions are required in hospitals in Iran to reduce the prevalence and increase the reporting rate of NSI. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of Prevalence- and Smoking Impact Ratio-Based Methods of Estimating Smoking-Attributable Fractions of Deaths

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Kyoung Ae Kong

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. Estimating the smoking-attributable burden is important for public health policy. Typically, prevalence- or smoking impact ratio (SIR-based methods are used to derive estimates, but there is controversy over which method is more appropriate for country-specific estimates. We compared smoking-attributable fractions (SAFs of deaths estimated by these two methods. Methods: To estimate SAFs in 2012, we used several different prevalence-based approaches using no lag and 10- and 20-year lags. For the SIR-based method, we obtained lung cancer mortality rates from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS and from the United States-based Cancer Prevention Study-II (CPS-II. The relative risks for the diseases associated with smoking were also obtained from these cohort studies. Results: For males, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were similar to those obtained using prevalence-based methods. For females, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were markedly greater than all prevalence-based SAFs. Differences in prevalence-based SAFs by time-lag period were minimal among males, but SAFs obtained using longer-lagged prevalence periods were significantly larger among females. SAFs obtained using CPS-II-based SIRs were lower than KCPS-based SAFs by >15 percentage points for most diseases, with the exceptions of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Conclusions: SAFs obtained using prevalence- and SIR-based methods were similar for males. However, neither prevalence-based nor SIR-based methods resulted in precise SAFs among females. The characteristics of the study population should be carefully considered when choosing a method to estimate SAF.

Prevalence rates of mental disorders in Chilean prisons.

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Adrian P Mundt

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: High rates of mental disorders have been reported for prison populations worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs. The present study aimed to establish prevalence rates of mental disorders in Chilean prisoners. METHOD: A nationwide random sample of 1008 prisoners was assessed in 7 penal institutions throughout Chile. Twelve-month prevalence rates were established using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI and compared to the prevalence rates previously published for the general population. RESULTS: Prevalence rates were 12.2% (95% CI, 10.2-14.1 for any substance use disorder, 8.3% (6.6-10.0 for anxiety disorders, 8.1% (6.5-9.8 for affective disorders, 5.7% (4.4-7.1 for intermittent explosive disorders, 2.2% (1.4-3.2 for ADHD of the adult, and 0.8% (0.3-1.3 for non-affective psychoses. Significantly higher prevalence rates among prisoners as compared to the general population in Chile were seen for major depression (6.1% vs. 3.7% males, Z=2.58, p<0.05 and illicit drug use (3.3% vs. 0.6% males with drug abuse, Z=2.04, p<0.05; 2.6% vs. 0.1% females with drug abuse, Z=5.36, p<0.001; 3.4% vs. 1.1% males with drug dependence, Z=3.70; p<0.001. Dysthymia (6.5% vs. 15.6%, Z=-2.39, p<0.05, simple (3.3% vs. 11.5%, Z=-3.13, p<0.001 and social phobias (3.9% vs. 9.7%, Z=2.38, p<0.05 were significantly less frequent in the female prison population than in the general population. One-year prevalence rates of alcohol abuse (2.3% vs. 3.9%; Z=-2.04; p<0.05 and dependence (2.7% vs. 8.2%; Z=-5.24; p<0.001 were less prevalent in the male prison population than in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Service provision for prison populations in Chile should acknowledge high rates of depression and illicit drug use. Overall prevalence rates are lower than reported in other LMICs. Previous research in prison populations in LMICs might have overestimated prevalence rates of mental disorders.

An estimate of the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia.

Science.gov (United States)

Shilowich, Bryan E; Biederman, Irving

2016-08-01

A web-based survey estimated the distribution of voice recognition abilities with a focus on determining the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia, the inability to identify a familiar person based on their voice. Participants matched clips of 50 celebrity voices to 1-4 named headshots of celebrities whose voices they had previously rated for familiarity. Given a strong correlation between rated familiarity and recognition performance, a residual was calculated based on the average familiarity rating on each trial, which thus constituted each respondent's voice recognition ability that could not be accounted for by familiarity. 3.2% of the respondents (23 of 730 participants) had residual recognition scores 2.28 SDs below the mean (whereas 8 or 1.1% would have been expected from a normal distribution). They also judged whether they could imagine the voice of five familiar celebrities. Individuals who had difficulty in imagining voices were also generally below average in their accuracy of recognition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

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Congdon Peter

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states and for

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015-2020.

Science.gov (United States)

Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

2018-01-01

Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003-2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited-time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051-18807), 20964 (15835-28268), and 14485 (11188-19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150-134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55-59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262-41638). A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

The National and Regional Prevalence Rates of Disability, Type, of Disability and Severity in Saudi Arabia-Analysis of 2016 Demographic Survey Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Bindawas, Saad M; Vennu, Vishal

2018-02-28

The prevalence of disability varies between countries ranging from less than 1% to up to 30% in some countries, thus, the estimated global disability prevalence is about 15%. However, it is unknown what the current estimate of disability and its types and severity are in Saudi Arabia. Thus, the objective of this study is to estimate national and regional prevalence rates of any disability, types of disability, and their severity among Saudi populations. Data on disability status were extracted from the national demographic survey conducted in 2016 as reported by the General Authority for Statistics, Saudi Arabia (N = 20,064,970). Prevalence rates per a population of 100,000 of any disability, type of disability, and its severity were calculated at the national level and in all 13 regions. Out of 20,064,970 Saudi citizens surveyed, 667,280 citizens reported disabilities, accounting for a prevalence rate of 3326 per a population of 100,000 (3.3%). Individuals aged 60 years and above (11,014) and males (3818) had a higher prevalence rate of disability compared with females (2813). The Tabuk region has the highest rate of reported disability, at 4.3%. The prevalence rates of extreme disabilities in mobility and sight were higher in Madinah (57,343) and Northern border (41,236) regions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, more than half a million Saudi citizens (1 out of every 30 individuals) reported the presence of disability during the year 2016. A higher prevalence rate of disability was seen among those aged 60 years and above, and males. Targeted efforts are required at the national and regional levels to expand and improve rehabilitation and social services for all people with disabilities.

The prevalence of disability among children: paradigms and estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Mudrick, Nancy R

2002-11-01

Every examination of disability among children must first grapple with definition of disability. The challenges to identifying disability among children involve not only determining the appropriate paradigm for defining disability, but also applying that paradigm to children in a meaningful way. This discussion of the prevalence of disability among children starts by examining the various paradigms utilized to identify disability and how they are interpreted when applied to children. Estimates of the prevalence of childhood disability, under different definitions of disability are presented. The goal of the discussion is to illustrate the sensitivity of the estimates of disability prevalence to the particular definition and data set used. Finally, the potential influence of the choice of paradigm on further measurement and service delivery is outlined.

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

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Hossein Molavi Vardanjani

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Materials and Methods: Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs. In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Results: Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807, 20964 (15835–28268, and 14485 (11188–19293, respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744 was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898 was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638. Conclusion: A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

Science.gov (United States)

Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

2018-01-01

Background: Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Materials and Methods: Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Results: Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807), 20964 (15835–28268), and 14485 (11188–19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638). Conclusion: A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors. PMID:29456991

Prevalence and incidence rates of autism in the UK: time trend from 2004–2010 in children aged 8 years

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Brent; Jick, Hershel; MacLaughlin, Dean

2013-01-01

Objectives To update UK studies begun in the early 1990s on the annual prevalence and incidence rates of autism in children; undertaken in response to a March 2012 press release, widely covered by the media, from the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) reporting that the autism prevalence rate in 2008 in 8-year-old US children was 1 in 88, a 78% increase from a CDC estimate in 2004. This finding suggested a continuation of the dramatic increase in children diagnosed as autistic, which occurred in the 1990s. Design Population study using the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Methods Annual autism prevalence rates were estimated for children aged 8 years in 2004–2010 by dividing the number diagnosed as autistic in each or any previous year by the number of children active in the study population that year. We also calculated annual incidence rates for children aged 2–8 years, by dividing the number newly diagnosed in 2004–2010 by the same denominators. Results Annual prevalence rates for each year were steady at approximately 3.8/1000 boys and 0.8/1000 girls. Annual incidence rates each year were also steady at about 1.2/1000 boys and 0.2/1000 girls. Conclusions Following a fivefold increase in the annual incidence rates of autism during the 1990s in the UK, the incidence and prevalence rates in 8-year-old children reached a plateau in the early 2000s and remained steady through 2010. Whether prevalence rates have increased from the early 2000s in the USA remains uncertain. PMID:24131525

Estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Paula Caitano Fontela

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: to estimate the glomerular filtration using the Cockcroft-Gault (CG, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD, and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI equations, and serum creatinine in the screening of reduced renal function in patients with type two diabetes (T2DM enrolled in the Family Health Strategy (ESF, Brazilian federal health-care program. Methods: a cross-sectional descriptive and analytical study was conducted. The protocol consisted of sociodemographics, physical examination and biochemical tests. Renal function was analyzed through serum creatinine and glomerular filtration rate (GFR estimated according to the CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI equations, available on the websites of the Brazilian Nephrology Society (SBN and the (NKF. Results: 146 patients aged 60.9±8.9 years were evaluated; 64.4% were women. The prevalence of serum creatinine >1.2 mg/dL was 18.5% and GFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 totaled 25.3, 36.3 and 34.2% when evaluated by the equations CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI, respectively. Diabetic patients with reduced renal function were older, had long-term T2DM diagnosis, higher systolic blood pressure and higher levels of fasting glucose, compared to diabetics with normal renal function. Creatinine showed strong negative correlation with the glomerular filtration rate estimated using CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI (-0.64, -0.87, -0.89 equations, respectively. Conclusion: the prevalence of individuals with reduced renal function based on serum creatinine was lower, reinforcing the need to follow the recommendations of the SBN and the National Kidney Disease Education Program (NKDEP in estimating the value of the glomerular filtration rate as a complement to the results of serum creatinine to better assess the renal function of patients.

The geography of HIV/AIDS prevalence rates in Botswana.

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Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Campbell, Eugene K; Rakgoasi, Serai Dan; Madi-Segwagwe, Banyana C; Fako, Thabo T

2012-01-01

Botswana has the second-highest human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rate in the world, with one in three adults infected. However, there is significant geographic variation at the district level and HIV prevalence is heterogeneous with the highest prevalence recorded in Selebi-Phikwe and North East. There is a lack of age-and location-adjusted prevalence maps that could be used for targeting HIV educational programs and efficient allocation of resources to higher risk groups. We used a nationally representative household survey to investigate and explain district level inequalities in HIV rates. A Bayesian geoadditive mixed model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques was applied to map the geographic distribution of HIV prevalence in the 26 districts, accounting simultaneously for individual, household, and area factors using the 2008 Botswana HIV Impact Survey. Overall, HIV prevalence was 17.6%, which was higher among females (20.4%) than males (14.3%). HIV prevalence was higher in cities and towns (20.3%) than in urban villages and rural areas (16.6% and 16.9%, respectively). We also observed an inverse U-shape association between age and prevalence of HIV, which had a different pattern in males and females. HIV prevalence was lowest among those aged 24 years or less and HIV affected over a third of those aged 25-35 years, before reaching a peak among the 36-49-year age group, after which the rate of HIV infection decreased by more than half among those aged 50 years and over. In a multivariate analysis, there was a statistically significant higher likelihood of HIV among females compared with males, and in clerical workers compared with professionals. The district-specific net spatial effects of HIV indicated a significantly higher HIV rate of 66% (posterior odds ratio of 1.66) in the northeast districts (Selebi-Phikwe, Sowa, and Francistown) and a reduced rate of 27% (posterior odds ratio of 0.73) in Kgalagadi North and Kweneng West districts

Estimating Plasmodium falciparum transmission rates in low-endemic settings using a combination of community prevalence and health facility data.

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Joshua Yukich

Full Text Available As some malaria control programs shift focus from disease control to transmission reduction, there is a need for transmission data to monitor progress. At lower levels of transmission, it becomes increasingly more difficult to measure precisely, for example through entomological studies. Many programs conduct regular cross sectional parasite prevalence surveys, and have access to malaria treatment data routinely collected by ministries of health, often in health management information systems. However, by themselves, these data are poor measures of transmission. In this paper, we propose an approach for combining annual parasite incidence and treatment data with cross-sectional parasite prevalence and treatment seeking survey data to estimate the incidence of new infections in the human population, also known as the force of infection. The approach is based on extension of a reversible catalytic model. The accuracy of the estimates from this model appears to be highly dependent on levels of detectability and treatment in the community, indicating the importance of information on private sector treatment seeking and access to effective and appropriate treatment.

Current and projected prevalence of arterial hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa by sex, age and habitat: an estimate from population studies.

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Twagirumukiza, Marc; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kips, Jan G; de Backer, Guy; Stichele, Robert Vander; Van Bortel, Luc M

2011-07-01

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), data on hypertension prevalence in terms of urban or rural and sex difference are lacking, heterogeneous or contradictory. In addition, there are no accurate estimates of hypertension burden. To estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of arterial hypertension in SSA in urban and rural adult populations. We searched for population studies, conducted from 1998 through 2008 in SSA. We extracted data from selected studies on available prevalences and used a logistic regression model to estimate all age/sex/habitat (urban/rural)/country-specific prevalences for SSA up to 2008 and 2025. On the basis of the United Nations Population Fund data for 2008 and predictions for 2025, we estimated the number of hypertensives in both years. Seventeen studies pertaining to 11 countries were analysed. The overall prevalence rate of hypertension in SSA for 2008 was estimated at 16.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.1-20.3], ranging from 10.6% in Ethiopia to 26.9% in Ghana. The estimated prevalence was 13.7% in rural areas, 20.7% in urban areas, 16.8% in males, and 15.7% in women. The total number of hypertensives in SSA was estimated at 75 million (95% CI 65-93 million) in 2008 and at 125.5 million (95% CI 111.0-162.9 million) by 2025. The estimated number of hypertensives in 2008 is nearly four times higher than the last (2005) estimate of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Prevalences were significantly higher in urban than in rural populations. Population data are lacking in many countries underlining the need for national surveys.

Estimated prevalence of dengue viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, 1995 through 2010.

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Petersen, Lyle R; Tomashek, Kay M; Biggerstaff, Brad J

2012-08-01

Dengue virus (DENV) nucleic acid amplification testing of blood donations during epidemics in endemic locations, including Puerto Rico, has suggested possible sizable transfusion transmission risk. Estimates of the long-term prevalence of DENV viremic donations will help evaluate the potential magnitude of this risk in Puerto Rico. Estimates of the prevalence of DENV viremia in the Puerto Rican population at large from 1995 through 2010 were derived from dengue case reports and their onset dates obtained from islandwide surveillance, estimates of case underreporting, and extant data on the duration of DENV viremia and the unapparent-to-apparent dengue infection ratio. Under the assumptions that viremia prevalence in blood donors was similar to that of the population at large and that symptomatic persons do not donate, statistical resampling methods were used to estimate the prevalence of dengue viremia in blood donations. Over the 16-year period, the maximum and mean daily prevalences of dengue viremia (per 10,000) in blood donations in Puerto Rico were estimated at 45.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.5-55.4) and 7.0 (95% CI, 3.9-10.1), respectively. Prevalence varied considerably by season and year. These data suggest a substantial prevalence of DENV viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, particularly during outbreaks. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

Estimating the global prevalence of zinc deficiency: results based on zinc availability in national food supplies and the prevalence of stunting.

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K Ryan Wessells

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adequate zinc nutrition is essential for adequate growth, immunocompetence and neurobehavioral development, but limited information on population zinc status hinders the expansion of interventions to control zinc deficiency. The present analyses were conducted to: (1 estimate the country-specific prevalence of inadequate zinc intake; and (2 investigate relationships between country-specific estimated prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and dietary patterns and stunting prevalence. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: National food balance sheet data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake were calculated based on the estimated absorbable zinc content of the national food supply, International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group estimated physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, and demographic data obtained from United Nations estimates. Stunting data were obtained from a recent systematic analysis based on World Health Organization growth standards. An estimated 17.3% of the world's population is at risk of inadequate zinc intake. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was negatively correlated with the total energy and zinc contents of the national food supply and the percent of zinc obtained from animal source foods, and positively correlated with the phytate: zinc molar ratio of the food supply. The estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was correlated with the prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age in children under five years of age (r = 0.48, P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: These results, which indicate that inadequate dietary zinc intake may be fairly common, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, allow inter-country comparisons regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem. Data from these analyses should be used to determine

Estimation of the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in South Korea, Revisited

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Pantelis, Peter C.; Kennedy, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Two-phase designs in epidemiological studies of autism prevalence introduce methodological complications that can severely limit the precision of resulting estimates. If the assumptions used to derive the prevalence estimate are invalid or if the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions is not properly accounted for in the statistical inference…

An examination of healthy aging across a conceptual continuum: prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity.

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McLaughlin, Sara J; Jette, Alan M; Connell, Cathleen M

2012-06-01

Although the notion of healthy aging has gained wide acceptance in gerontology, measuring the phenomenon is challenging. Guided by a prominent conceptualization of healthy aging, we examined how shifting from a more to less stringent definition of healthy aging influences prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity. Data are from adults aged 65 years and older who participated in the Health and Retirement Study. We examined four operational definitions of healthy aging. For each, we calculated prevalence estimates and examined the odds of healthy aging by age, education, gender, and race-ethnicity in 2006. We also examined the association between healthy aging and both self-rated health and death. Across definitions, the prevalence of healthy aging ranged from 3.3% to 35.5%. For all definitions, those classified as experiencing healthy aging had lower odds of fair or poor self-rated health and death over an 8-year period. The odds of being classified as "healthy" were lower among those of advanced age, those with less education, and women than for their corresponding counterparts across all definitions. Moving across the conceptual continuum--from a more to less rigid definition of healthy aging--markedly increases the measured prevalence of healthy aging. Importantly, results suggest that all examined definitions identified a subgroup of older adults who had substantially lower odds of reporting fair or poor health and dying over an 8-year period, providing evidence of the validity of our definitions. Conceptualizations that emphasize symptomatic disease and functional health may be particularly useful for public health purposes.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

2016-01-01

and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all......Summary Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage......-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software...

Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys.

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Flávio Chaimowicz

Full Text Available The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries' populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil.We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815. Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%.The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations.

Mental health of a police force: estimating prevalence of work-related depression in Australia without a direct national measure.

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Lawson, Katrina J; Rodwell, John J; Noblet, Andrew J

2012-06-01

The risk of work-related depression in Australia was estimated based on a survey of 631 police officers. Psychological wellbeing and psychological distress items were mapped onto a measure of depression to identify optimal cutoff points. Based on a sample of police officers, Australian workers, in general, are at risk of depression when general psychological wellbeing is considerably compromised. Large-scale estimation of work-related depression in the broader population of employed persons in Australia is reasonable. The relatively high prevalence of depression among police officers emphasizes the need to examine prevalence rates of depression among Australian employees.

Reconciling disparate prevalence rates of PTSD in large samples of US male Vietnam veterans and their controls

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Gottesman Irving I

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Two large independent studies funded by the US government have assessed the impact of the Vietnam War on the prevalence of PTSD in US veterans. The National Vietnam Veterans Readjustment Study (NVVRS estimated the current PTSD prevalence to be 15.2% while the Vietnam Experience Study (VES estimated the prevalence to be 2.2%. We compared alternative criteria for estimating the prevalence of PTSD using the NVVRS and VES public use data sets collected more than 10 years after the United States withdrew troops from Vietnam. Methods We applied uniform diagnostic procedures to the male veterans from the NVVRS and VES to estimate PTSD prevalences based on varying criteria including one-month and lifetime prevalence estimates, combat and non-combat prevalence estimates, and prevalence estimates using both single and multiple indicator models. Results Using a narrow and specific set of criteria, we derived current prevalence estimates for combat-related PTSD of 2.5% and 2.9% for the VES and the NVVRS, respectively. Using a more broad and sensitive set of criteria, we derived current prevalence estimates for combat-related PTSD of 12.2% and 15.8% for the VES and NVVRS, respectively. Conclusion When comparable methods were applied to available data we reconciled disparate results and estimated similar current prevalences for both narrow and broad definitions of combat-related diagnoses of PTSD.

Analyse of the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism in the patients with dyspnea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao Yanxia; Su Jian; Wang Bingsheng; Wu Songhong; Dai Ruiting; Cao Caixia

2005-01-01

Objective: To analyse the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with dyspnea and to explore the predisposing causes and its early clinical manifestations. Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 461 patients with dyspnea performed 99 Tc m -macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion imaging and 99 Tc m -DTPA ventilation imaging or 99 Tc m -MAA perfusion imaging and chest X-ray examination. Among them, 48 cases without apparent disease were considered as control group, whereas the remaining patients with other underlying illnesses as patients group. PEMS statistics software package was used for estimation of prevalence rate, χ 2 test and PE risk factor analysis. Results: There were 251 PE patients among 461 patients, the prevalence rate [ (π)=95% confidence interval (CI) ] was: lower extremity thrombosis and varicosity (80.79-95.47 ), post cesarean section (55.64-87.12), lower extremity bone surgery or fracture (52.76-87.27 ), cancer operation (52.19-78.19), atrial fibrillation or heart failure (53.30-74.88), obesity (23.14-50.20), post abdominal surgery (20.23-59.43), diabetes (19.12-63.95), chronic bronchitis (1.80-23.06), normal control group (3.47-22.66). Except chronic bronchitis, PE prevalence rate between patients group and control group had significant difference (P 99 Tc m -MAA and DTPA lung imaging should be done as early as possible. (authors)

The Relationship Between Child Mortality Rates and Prevalence of Celiac Disease.

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Biagi, Federico; Raiteri, Alberto; Schiepatti, Annalisa; Klersy, Catherine; Corazza, Gino R

2018-02-01

Some evidence suggests that prevalence of celiac disease in the general population is increasing over time. Because the prognosis of celiac disease was a dismal one before discovering the role of gluten, our aim was to investigate a possible relationship between children under-5 mortality rates and prevalence rates of celiac disease. Thanks to a literature review, we found 27 studies performed in 17 different countries describing the prevalence of celiac disease in schoolchildren; between 1995 and 2011, 4 studies were performed in Italy. A meta-analysis of prevalence rates was performed. Prevalence was compared between specific country under-5 mortality groups, publication year, and age. In the last decades, under-5 mortality rates have been decreasing all over the world. This reduction is paralleled by an increase of the prevalence of celiac disease. The Spearman correlation coefficient was -63%, 95% confidence interval -82% to -33% (P celiac disease in the general population. In the near future, the number of patients with celiac disease will increase, thanks to the better environmental conditions that nowadays allow a better survival of children with celiac disease.

The impact of fecal sample processing on prevalence estimates for antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli.

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Omulo, Sylvia; Lofgren, Eric T; Mugoh, Maina; Alando, Moshe; Obiya, Joshua; Kipyegon, Korir; Kikwai, Gilbert; Gumbi, Wilson; Kariuki, Samuel; Call, Douglas R

2017-05-01

Investigators often rely on studies of Escherichia coli to characterize the burden of antibiotic resistance in a clinical or community setting. To determine if prevalence estimates for antibiotic resistance are sensitive to sample handling and interpretive criteria, we collected presumptive E. coli isolates (24 or 95 per stool sample) from a community in an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Isolates were tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics using agar breakpoint assays and results were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We observed a 0.1). Prevalence estimates did not differ for five distinct E. coli colony morphologies on MacConkey agar plates (P>0.2). Successive re-plating of samples for up to five consecutive days had little to no impact on prevalence estimates. Finally, culturing E. coli under different conditions (with 5% CO 2 or micro-aerobic) did not affect estimates of prevalence. For the conditions tested in these experiments, minor modifications in sample processing protocols are unlikely to bias estimates of the prevalence of antibiotic-resistance for fecal E. coli. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence Rate and Risk Factors of Depression in Outpatients with Premature Ejaculation

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Xiansheng Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence rate and risk factors of depression in outpatients who were diagnosed with PE. Therefore, between September 2009 and September 2011, 1801 outpatients at andrology clinics were enrolled and consented to participate in our survey by completed a verbal questionnaire. It included the following: (1 demographic data (e.g., age, body mass index, (2 PE duration, medical history, and sexual history, (3 self-estimated intravaginal ejaculatory latency times, (4 the Zung Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS, and (5 the National Institute of Health Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index (NIH-CPSI and (6 the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5. The results showed that a total of 1,206 patients were diagnosed with PE. The prevalence rate of depression in these PE patients was 26.78%. Depression was associated with PE duration, NIH-CPSI score, and IIEF-5 score. Risk factors for depression specifically included PE durations for 13–24, 25–60, or ≥61 months, CPSI scores of 15–30 or ≥31, and IIEF-5 scores <22. These findings suggested that several associated factors (PE duration, CPSI scores, and IIEF-5 scores were the risk factors of depression in men with PE.

Underreporting of BMI in adults and its effect on obesity prevalence estimations in the period 1998 to 2001

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visscher, Tommy L S; Viet, A Lucie; Kroesbergen, Ike H T; Seidell, Jacob C

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To identify the determinants of underreporting BMI and to evaluate the possibilities of using self-reported data for valid obesity prevalence rate estimations. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: A cross-sectional monitoring health survey was carried out between 1998 and 2002, and a review

Prevalence rates for depression by industry: a claims database analysis.

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Wulsin, Lawson; Alterman, Toni; Timothy Bushnell, P; Li, Jia; Shen, Rui

2014-11-01

To estimate and interpret differences in depression prevalence rates among industries, using a large, group medical claims database. Depression cases were identified by ICD-9 diagnosis code in a population of 214,413 individuals employed during 2002-2005 by employers based in western Pennsylvania. Data were provided by Highmark, Inc. (Pittsburgh and Camp Hill, PA). Rates were adjusted for age, gender, and employee share of health care costs. National industry measures of psychological distress, work stress, and physical activity at work were also compiled from other data sources. Rates for clinical depression in 55 industries ranged from 6.9 to 16.2 %, (population rate = 10.45 %). Industries with the highest rates tended to be those which, on the national level, require frequent or difficult interactions with the public or clients, and have high levels of stress and low levels of physical activity. Additional research is needed to help identify industries with relatively high rates of depression in other regions and on the national level, and to determine whether these differences are due in part to specific work stress exposures and physical inactivity at work. Claims database analyses may provide a cost-effective way to identify priorities for depression treatment and prevention in the workplace.

Prevalence rates for depression by industry: a claims database analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Alterman, Toni; Bushnell, P. Timothy; Li, Jia; Shen, Rui

2015-01-01

Purpose To estimate and interpret differences in depression prevalence rates among industries, using a large, group medical claims database. Methods Depression cases were identified by ICD-9 diagnosis code in a population of 214,413 individuals employed during 2002–2005 by employers based in western Pennsylvania. Data were provided by Highmark, Inc. (Pittsburgh and Camp Hill, PA). Rates were adjusted for age, gender, and employee share of health care costs. National industry measures of psychological distress, work stress, and physical activity at work were also compiled from other data sources. Results Rates for clinical depression in 55 industries ranged from 6.9 to 16.2 %, (population rate = 10.45 %). Industries with the highest rates tended to be those which, on the national level, require frequent or difficult interactions with the public or clients, and have high levels of stress and low levels of physical activity. Conclusions Additional research is needed to help identify industries with relatively high rates of depression in other regions and on the national level, and to determine whether these differences are due in part to specific work stress exposures and physical inactivity at work. Clinical significance Claims database analyses may provide a cost-effective way to identify priorities for depression treatment and prevention in the workplace. PMID:24907896

Toxocara infection in the United States: the relevance of poverty, geography and demography as risk factors, and implications for estimating county prevalence.

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Congdon, Peter; Lloyd, Patsy

2011-02-01

To estimate Toxocara infection rates by age, gender and ethnicity for US counties using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). After initial analysis to account for missing data, a binary regression model is applied to obtain relative risks of Toxocara infection for 20,396 survey subjects. The regression incorporates interplay between demographic attributes (age, ethnicity and gender), family poverty and geographic context (region, metropolitan status). Prevalence estimates for counties are then made, distinguishing between subpopulations in poverty and not in poverty. Even after allowing for elevated infection risk associated with poverty, seropositivity is elevated among Black non-Hispanics and other ethnic groups. There are also distinct effects of region. When regression results are translated into county prevalence estimates, the main influences on variation in county rates are percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks and county poverty. For targeting prevention it is important to assess implications of national survey data for small area prevalence. Using data from NHANES, the study confirms that both individual level risk factors and geographic contextual factors affect chances of Toxocara infection.

Interpolation between spatial frameworks: an application of process convolution to estimating neighbourhood disease prevalence.

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Congdon, Peter

2014-04-01

Health data may be collected across one spatial framework (e.g. health provider agencies), but contrasts in health over another spatial framework (neighbourhoods) may be of policy interest. In the UK, population prevalence totals for chronic diseases are provided for populations served by general practitioner practices, but not for neighbourhoods (small areas of circa 1500 people), raising the question whether data for one framework can be used to provide spatially interpolated estimates of disease prevalence for the other. A discrete process convolution is applied to this end and has advantages when there are a relatively large number of area units in one or other framework. Additionally, the interpolation is modified to take account of the observed neighbourhood indicators (e.g. hospitalisation rates) of neighbourhood disease prevalence. These are reflective indicators of neighbourhood prevalence viewed as a latent construct. An illustrative application is to prevalence of psychosis in northeast London, containing 190 general practitioner practices and 562 neighbourhoods, including an assessment of sensitivity to kernel choice (e.g. normal vs exponential). This application illustrates how a zero-inflated Poisson can be used as the likelihood model for a reflective indicator.

Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

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Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

2018-02-15

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

The importance of estimating selection bias on prevalence estimates shortly after a disaster.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grievink, Linda; Velden, Peter G van der; Yzermans, C Joris; Roorda, Jan; Stellato, Rebecca K

2006-01-01

PURPOSE: The aim was to study selective participation and its effect on prevalence estimates in a health survey of affected residents 3 weeks after a man-made disaster in The Netherlands (May 13, 2000). METHODS: All affected adult residents were invited to participate. Survey (questionnaire) data

The importance of estimating selection bias on prevalence estimates, shortly after a disaster.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grievink, L.; Velden, P.G. van der; Yzermans, C.J.; Roorda, J.; Stellato, R.K.

2006-01-01

PURPOSE: The aim was to study selective participation and its effect on prevalence estimates in a health survey of affected residents 3 weeks after a man-made disaster in The Netherlands (May 13, 2000). METHODS: All affected adult residents were invited to participate. Survey (questionnaire) data

Estimating the Impact of Raising Prices and Eliminating Discounts on Cigarette Smoking Prevalence in the United States.

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Marynak, Kristy L; Xu, Xin; Wang, Xu; Holmes, Carissa Baker; Tynan, Michael A; Pechacek, Terry

2016-01-01

The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease.

Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

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Congdon, Peter

2013-01-01

This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Congdon, Peter

2013-10-14

This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas.

Improving estimates of the prevalence of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting among migrants in Western countries

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Livia Elisa Ortensi

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Background: Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C is an emerging topic in immigrant countries as a consequence of the increasing proportion of African women in overseas communities. Objective: While the prevalence of FGM/C is routinely measured in practicing countries, the prevalence of the phenomenon in western countries is substantially unknown, as no standardized methods exist yet for immigrant countries. The aim of this paper is to present an improved method of indirect estimation of the prevalence of FGM/C among first generation migrants based on a migrant selection hypothesis. A criterion to assess reliability of indirect estimates is also provided. Methods: The method is based on data from Demographic Health Surveys (DHS and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS. Migrants' Selection Hypothesis is used to correct national prevalence estimates and obtain an improved estimation of prevalence among overseas communities. Results: The application of the selection hypothesis modifies national estimates, usually predicting a lower occurrence of FGM/C among immigrants than in their respective practicing countries. A comparison of direct and indirect estimations confirms that the method correctly predicts the direction of the variation in the expected prevalence and satisfactorily approximates direct estimates. Conclusions: Given its wide applicability, this method would be a useful instrument to estimate FGM/C occurrence among first generation immigrants and provide corresponding support for policies in countries where information from ad hoc surveys is unavailable.

Hepatitis C prevalence in Denmark -an estimate based on multiple national registers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Peer Brehm; Hay, Gordon; Jepsen, Peter

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: A national survey for chronic hepatitis C has not been performed in Denmark and the prevalence is unknown. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C from public registers and the proportion of these patients who received specialized healthcare. METHODS...... by capture-recapture analysis. The population with undiagnosed hepatitis C was derived from the national register of drug users by comparing diagnosed and tested persons. RESULTS: A total of 6,935 patients diagnosed with chronic hepatitis C were identified in the four registers and the estimated population.......37-0.42) of the population over 15 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in Denmark was 0.38%. Less than half of the patients with chronic hepatitis C in Denmark have been identified and among these patients, one in three has attended specialised care....

Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

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Peter Congdon

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care areas.

National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models

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Hogan, Daniel R; Salomon, Joshua A; Canning, David; Hammitt, James K; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Bärnighausen, Till

2012-01-01

Objectives Population-based HIV testing surveys have become central to deriving estimates of national HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited participation in these surveys can lead to selection bias. We control for selection bias in national HIV prevalence estimates using a novel approach, which unlike conventional imputation can account for selection on unobserved factors. Methods For 12 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted from 2001 to 2009 (N=138 300), we predict HIV status among those missing a valid HIV test with Heckman-type selection models, which allow for correlation between infection status and participation in survey HIV testing. We compare these estimates with conventional ones and introduce a simulation procedure that incorporates regression model parameter uncertainty into confidence intervals. Results Selection model point estimates of national HIV prevalence were greater than unadjusted estimates for 10 of 12 surveys for men and 11 of 12 surveys for women, and were also greater than the majority of estimates obtained from conventional imputation, with significantly higher HIV prevalence estimates for men in Cote d'Ivoire 2005, Mali 2006 and Zambia 2007. Accounting for selective non-participation yielded 95% confidence intervals around HIV prevalence estimates that are wider than those obtained with conventional imputation by an average factor of 4.5. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that national HIV prevalence estimates for many countries in sub-Saharan African are more uncertain than previously thought, and may be underestimated in several cases, underscoring the need for increasing participation in HIV surveys. Heckman-type selection models should be included in the set of tools used for routine estimation of HIV prevalence. PMID:23172342

Estimating the prevalence, hospitalisation and mortality from type 2 diabetes mellitus in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Adeloye, Davies; Ige, Janet O; Aderemi, Adewale V; Adeleye, Ngozi; Amoo, Emmanuel O; Auta, Asa; Oni, Gbolahan

2017-05-11

There is not yet a comprehensive evidence-based epidemiological report on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Nigeria. We aimed to estimate country-wide and zonal prevalence, hospitalisation and mortality rates of T2DM in Nigeria. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Africa Journals Online (AJOL) and Google Scholar for population and hospital-based studies on T2DM in Nigeria. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude estimates, and applied a meta-regression epidemiological model, using the United Nations demographics for Nigeria in 1990 and 2015 to determine estimates of diabetes in Nigeria for the two years. 42 studies, with a total population of 91 320, met our selection criteria. Most of the studies selected were of medium quality (90.5%). The age-adjusted prevalence rates of T2DM in Nigeria among persons aged 20-79 years increased from 2.0% (95% CI 1.9% to 2.1%) in 1990 to 5.7% (95% CI 5.5% to 5.8%) in 2015, accounting for over 874 000 and 4.7 million cases, respectively. The pooled prevalence rate of impaired glucose tolerance was 10.0% (95% CI 4.5% to 15.6%), while impaired fasting glucose was 5.8% (95% CI 3.8% to 7.8%). Hospital admission rate for T2DM was 222.6 (95% CI 133.1 to 312.1) per 100 000 population with hyperglycaemic emergencies, diabetic foot and cardiovascular diseases being most common complications. The overall mortality rate was 30.2 (95% CI 14.6 to 45.8) per 100 000 population, with a case fatality rate of 22.0% (95% CI 8.0% to 36.0%). Our findings suggest an increasing burden of T2DM in Nigeria with many persons currently undiagnosed, and few known cases on treatment. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

National South African HIV prevalence estimates robust despite substantial test non-participation

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Guy Harling

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Background. South African (SA national HIV seroprevalence estimates are of crucial policy relevance in the country, and for the worldwide HIV response. However, the most recent nationally representative HIV test survey in 2012 had 22% test non-participation, leaving the potential for substantial bias in current seroprevalence estimates, even after controlling for selection on observed factors. Objective. To re-estimate national HIV prevalence in SA, controlling for bias due to selection on both observed and unobserved factors in the 2012 SA National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. Methods. We jointly estimated regression models for consent to test and HIV status in a Heckman-type bivariate probit framework. As selection variable, we used assigned interviewer identity, a variable known to predict consent but highly unlikely to be associated with interviewees’ HIV status. From these models, we estimated the HIV status of interviewed participants who did not test. Results. Of 26 710 interviewed participants who were invited to test for HIV, 21.3% of females and 24.3% of males declined. Interviewer identity was strongly correlated with consent to test for HIV; declining a test was weakly associated with HIV serostatus. Our HIV prevalence estimates were not significantly different from those using standard methods to control for bias due to selection on observed factors: 15.1% (95% confidence interval (CI 12.1 - 18.6 v. 14.5% (95% CI 12.8 - 16.3 for 15 - 49-year-old males; 23.3% (95% CI 21.7 - 25.8 v. 23.2% (95% CI 21.3 - 25.1 for 15 - 49-year-old females. Conclusion. The most recent SA HIV prevalence estimates are robust under the strongest available test for selection bias due to missing data. Our findings support the reliability of inferences drawn from such data.

Republic of Georgia estimates for prevalence of drug use: Randomized response techniques suggest under-estimation.

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Kirtadze, Irma; Otiashvili, David; Tabatadze, Mzia; Vardanashvili, Irina; Sturua, Lela; Zabransky, Tomas; Anthony, James C

2018-06-01

Validity of responses in surveys is an important research concern, especially in emerging market economies where surveys in the general population are a novelty, and the level of social control is traditionally higher. The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can be used as a check on response validity when the study aim is to estimate population prevalence of drug experiences and other socially sensitive and/or illegal behaviors. To apply RRT and to study potential under-reporting of drug use in a nation-scale, population-based general population survey of alcohol and other drug use. For this first-ever household survey on addictive substances for the Country of Georgia, we used the multi-stage probability sampling of 18-to-64-year-old household residents of 111 urban and 49 rural areas. During the interviewer-administered assessments, RRT involved pairing of sensitive and non-sensitive questions about drug experiences. Based upon the standard household self-report survey estimate, an estimated 17.3% [95% confidence interval, CI: 15.5%, 19.1%] of Georgian household residents have tried cannabis. The corresponding RRT estimate was 29.9% [95% CI: 24.9%, 34.9%]. The RRT estimates for other drugs such as heroin also were larger than the standard self-report estimates. We remain unsure about what is the "true" value for prevalence of using illegal psychotropic drugs in the Republic of Georgia study population. Our RRT results suggest that standard non-RRT approaches might produce 'under-estimates' or at best, highly conservative, lower-end estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High rates of incident and prevalent anal human papillomavirus infection among young men who have sex with men.

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Glick, Sara Nelson; Feng, Qinghua; Popov, Viorica; Koutsky, Laura A; Golden, Matthew R

2014-02-01

There are few published estimates of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection rates among young men who have sex with men (YMSM). We estimated incidence and prevalence of type-specific anal HPV infection using clinician-collected anal swabs for HPV DNA testing obtained during a 1-year prospective study of 94 YMSM (mean age, 21 years) in Seattle. Seventy percent of YMSM had any HPV infection detected during the study, and HPV-16 and/or -18 were detected in 37%. The incidence rate for any new HPV infection was 38.5 per 1000 person-months and 15.3 per 1000 person-months for HPV-16/18; 19% had persistent HPV-16/18 infection. No participant tested positive for all 4 HPV types in the quadrivalent vaccine. The number of lifetime male receptive anal sex partners was significantly associated with HPV infection. The prevalence of HPV-16/18 was 6% among YMSM with a history of 1 receptive anal sex partner and 31% among YMSM with ≥ 2 partners. Although the high prevalence of HPV among YMSM highlights the desirability of vaccinating all boys as a strategy to avert the morbidity of HPV infection, most YMSM appear to remain naive to either HPV-16 or -18 well into their sexual lives and would benefit from HPV immunization.

Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for 2000 and projections for 2030

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wild, Sarah; Roglic, Gojka; Green, Anders

2004-01-01

. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people 65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS — These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence......OBJECTIVE — The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS — Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World...... of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence....

Prevalence and determinants of differences in cystatin C and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate in community-dwelling older adults: a cross-sectional study.

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Legrand, Helen; Werner, Karin; Christensson, Anders; Pihlsgård, Mats; Elmståhl, Sölve

2017-12-04

Differences in cystatin C and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) can lead to clinical uncertainty. Existing eGFR equations perform poorly in a subset of individuals. This study aims to describe the prevalence of differences between cystatin C-based (eGFR cys ) and creatinine-based (eGFR creat ) eGFR in older adults and to explore which subsets of individuals may be most affected by differing estimations. In this cross-sectional study, participants from a cohort of community-dwelling older adults were examined at a baseline visit in 2001-2004 as part of the larger "Good Aging in Skåne" study. Exposure variables were obtained from questionnaires, interviews, examinations, and medical records. Blood samples were taken during the baseline visit, cryopreserved, and analyzed at a later time for biomarkers. The CKD-EPI equations were used to estimate GFR. Initial descriptive analyses were performed on 2931 individuals. A total of 2532 participants were included in the final multiple linear regression. Nearly two-thirds of participants had eGFR differences exceeding 10%, with nearly 20 % of participants having eGFR differences exceeding 30%. Smoking, age, body mass index (BMI), C-reactive protein (CRP), glucocorticoid use, and mean eGFR were correlated with differences between eGFR creat and eGFR cys . Differences between eGFR creat and eGFR cys are common and often of large magnitude in this community-dwelling population of older adults. The finding of multiple non-GFR determinants correlated to differences in GFR estimations can help direct future research to improve eGFR equations for subgroups prone to conflicting GFR estimations or to guide choice of biomarker for GFR estimation in these subgroups.

The Impact of Survey and Response Modes on Current Smoking Prevalence Estimates Using TUS-CPS: 1992-2003

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Julia Soulakova

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This study identified whether survey administration mode (telephone or in-person and respondent type (self or proxy result in discrepant prevalence of current smoking in the adult U.S. population, while controlling for key sociodemographic characteristics and longitudinal changes of smoking prevalence over the 11-year period from 1992-2003. We used a multiple logistic regression analysis with replicate weights to model the current smoking status logit as a function of a number of covariates. The final model included individual- and family-level sociodemographic characteristics, survey attributes, and multiple two-way interactions of survey mode and respondent type with other covariates. The respondent type is a significant predictor of current smoking prevalence and the magnitude of the difference depends on the age, sex, and education of the person whose smoking status is being reported. Furthermore, the survey mode has significant interactions with survey year, sex, and age. We conclude that using an overall unadjusted estimate of the current smoking prevalence may result in underestimating the current smoking rate when conducting proxy or telephone interviews especially for some sub-populations, such as young adults. We propose that estimates could be improved if more detailed information regarding the respondent type and survey administration mode characteristics were considered in addition to commonly used survey year and sociodemographic characteristics. This information is critical given that future surveillance is moving toward more complex designs. Thus, adjustment of estimates should be contemplated when comparing current smoking prevalence results within a given survey series with major changes in methodology over time and between different surveys using various modes and respondent types.

Estimating the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake from national food balance sheets: effects of methodological assumptions.

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K Ryan Wessells

Full Text Available The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population's theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1 evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2 generate a model considered to provide the best estimates.National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation. Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12-66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57-0.99, P<0.01. A "best-estimate" model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%.Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem in different countries can be drawn based on the country

An estimation of the prevalence of genomic disorders using chromosomal microarray data.

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Gillentine, Madelyn A; Lupo, Philip J; Stankiewicz, Pawel; Schaaf, Christian P

2018-04-24

Multiple genomic disorders result from recurrent deletions or duplications between low copy repeat (LCR) clusters, mediated by nonallelic homologous recombination. These copy number variants (CNVs) often exhibit variable expressivity and/or incomplete penetrance. However, the population prevalence of many genomic disorders has not been estimated accurately. A subset of genomic disorders similarly characterized by CNVs between LCRs have been studied epidemiologically, including Williams-Beuren syndrome (7q11.23), Smith-Magenis syndrome (17p11.2), velocardiofacial syndrome (22q11.21), Prader-Willi/Angelman syndromes (15q11.2q12), 17q12 deletion syndrome, and Charcot-Marie-Tooth neuropathy type 1/hereditary neuropathy with liability to pressure palsy (PMP22, 17q11.2). We have generated a method to estimate prevalence of highly penetrant genomic disorders by (1) leveraging epidemiological data for genomic disorders with previously reported prevalence estimates, (2) obtaining chromosomal microarray data on genomic disorders from a large medical genetics clinic; and (3) utilizing these in a linear regression model to determine the prevalence of this syndromic copy number change among the general population. Using our algorithm, the prevalence for five clinically relevant recurrent genomic disorders: 1q21.1 microdeletion (1/6882 live births) and microduplication syndromes (1/6309), 15q13.3 microdeletion syndrome (1/5525), and 16p11.2 microdeletion (1/3021) and microduplication syndromes (1/4216), were determined. These findings will inform epidemiological strategies for evaluating those conditions, and our method may be useful to evaluate the prevalence of other highly penetrant genomic disorders.

A prospective longitudinal study to estimate the prevalence of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A prospective longitudinal study to estimate the prevalence of obesity in Egyptian children with nocturnal enuresis and the association between body mass index and ... Egyptian Journal of Medical Human Genetics ... Response to the treatment was evaluated statistically and correlated with body mass index percentile.

Association between Search Behaviors and Disease Prevalence Rates at 18 U.S. Children's Hospitals.

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Daniel, Dennis; Wolbrink, Traci; Logvinenko, Tanya; Harper, Marvin; Burns, Jeffrey

2017-10-01

Background Usage of online resources by clinicians in training and practice can provide insight into knowledge gaps and inform development of decision support tools. Although online information seeking is often driven by encountered patient problems, the relationship between disease prevalence and search rate has not been previously characterized. Objective This article aimed to (1) identify topics frequently searched by pediatric clinicians using UpToDate (http://www.uptodate.com) and (2) explore the association between disease prevalence rate and search rate using data from the Pediatric Health Information System. Methods We identified the most common search queries and resources most frequently accessed on UpToDate for a cohort of 18 children's hospitals during calendar year 2012. We selected 64 of the most frequently searched diseases and matched ICD-9 data from the PHIS database during the same time period. Using linear regression, we explored the relationship between clinician query rate and disease prevalence rate. Results The hospital cohort submitted 1,228,138 search queries across 592,454 sessions. The majority of search sessions focused on a single search topic. We identified no consistent overall association between disease prevalence and search rates. Diseases where search rate was substantially higher than prevalence rate were often infectious or immune/rheumatologic conditions, involved potentially complex diagnosis or management, and carried risk of significant morbidity or mortality. None of the examined diseases showed a decrease in search rate associated with increased disease prevalence rates. Conclusion This is one of the first medical learning needs assessments to use large-scale, multisite data to identify topics of interest to pediatric clinicians, and to examine the relationship between disease prevalence and search rate for a set of pediatric diseases. Overall, disease search rate did not appear to be associated with hospital

The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

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Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

2013-01-01

Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

Prevalence rates of ADIPOQ polymorphisms in Indian population and a comparison with other populations

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Sandhya Kiran Pemmasani

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The adiponectin gene, ADIPOQ, encodes an adipocytokine, known as adiponectin hormone. This hormone is known to be associated with insulin sensitization, fat metabolism, immunity, and inflammatory response. Polymorphisms in ADIPOQ gene lower the adiponectin levels, increasing the risk for diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Aims: The study aimed to calculate the prevalence rates of ADIPOQ polymorphisms in Indian population and to compare those prevalence rates with that of other populations. Subjects and Methods: Microarray-based genotypic data of 14 ADIPOQ polymorphisms from 703 individuals of Indian origin were used. Statistical Analysis Used: Frequency estimation, identity-by-descent, Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, Chi-square test of significance were used for statistical analysis. Results: Allelic and genotypic frequencies of ADIPOQ polymorphisms, Chi-square tests of significance for allelic and genotypic frequencies across various populations. Conclusions: East Asians are very different from Indians in terms of allelic and genotypic frequencies of ADIPOQ polymorphisms. Europeans have similar genotypic and allelic patterns with Indians. Admixture Americans and Africans also showed significant differences with polymorphisms of the Indian population.

Estimating Discount Rates

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Laurence Booth

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Discount rates are essential to applied finance, especially in setting prices for regulated utilities and valuing the liabilities of insurance companies and defined benefit pension plans. This paper reviews the basic building blocks for estimating discount rates. It also examines market risk premiums, as well as what constitutes a benchmark fair or required rate of return, in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. Some of the results are disconcerting. In Canada, utilities and pension regulators responded to the crash in different ways. Utilities regulators haven’t passed on the full impact of low interest rates, so that consumers face higher prices than they should whereas pension regulators have done the opposite, and forced some contributors to pay more. In both cases this is opposite to the desired effect of monetary policy which is to stimulate aggregate demand. A comprehensive survey of global finance professionals carried out last year provides some clues as to where adjustments are needed. In the U.S., the average equity market required return was estimated at 8.0 per cent; Canada’s is 7.40 per cent, due to the lower market risk premium and the lower risk-free rate. This paper adds a wealth of historic and survey data to conclude that the ideal base long-term interest rate used in risk premium models should be 4.0 per cent, producing an overall expected market return of 9-10.0 per cent. The same data indicate that allowed returns to utilities are currently too high, while the use of current bond yields in solvency valuations of pension plans and life insurers is unhelpful unless there is a realistic expectation that the plans will soon be terminated.

Prevalence of Reduced Kidney Function by Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Using an Equation Based on Creatinine and Cystatin C in Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components in Korean Adults

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Yang Ho Kang

2016-09-01

Full Text Available BackgroundIt is known that metabolic syndrome (MetS is associated with chronic kidney disease. We evaluated and compared the prevalence of reduced kidney function in MetS and its components by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR using an equation based on creatinine (eGFRcr, cystatin C (eGFRcys, and combined creatinine-cystatin C (eGFRcr-cys in Korean adults.MethodsWe analyzed data from 3,649 adults who participated in a comprehensive health examination.ResultsMean values of eGFRcys were higher compared with mean values of eGFRcr (96.1±18.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 vs. 91.2±13.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 in total subjects. The prevalence of reduced kidney function increased with age (9.6% for eGFRcys vs. 5.8% for eGFRcr-cys vs. 4.9% for eGFRcr, in subjects aged ≥60 years, and significantly increased with MetS, abdominal obesity, hypertension, high triglyceride, low high density lipoprotein (HDL, and high insulin resistance. The prevalence of MetS, abdominal obesity, hypertension, high insulin resistance, low HDL, and hepatic steatosis was significantly increased in subjects with reduced kidney function. This increased prevalence and the odds ratio of reduced kidney function for prevalence of MetS was highest for eGFRcys, followed by those of eGFRcr-cys, and eGFRcr.ConclusionThe prevalence of reduced kidney function by eGFR was significantly increased in subjects with MetS and its related components. eGFRcys and eGFRcr-cys were superior to eGFRcr in detecting reduced kidney function.

Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

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Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron;

Gender-specific estimates of COPD prevalence: a systematic review and meta-analysis

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Ntritsos G

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Georgios Ntritsos,1 Jacob Franek,2 Lazaros Belbasis,1 Maria A Christou,1 Georgios Markozannes,1 Pablo Altman,3 Robert Fogel,3 Tobias Sayre,2 Evangelia E Ntzani,1 Evangelos Evangelou1,4 1Clinical and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece; 2Doctor Evidence, Client Solutions, Santa Monica, CA, USA; 3Global Medical Affairs, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hanover, NJ, USA; 4Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, UK Rationale: COPD has been perceived as being a disease of older men. However, >7 million women are estimated to live with COPD in the USA alone. Despite a growing body of literature suggesting an increasing burden of COPD in women, the evidence is limited. Objectives: To assess and synthesize the available evidence among population-based epidemiologic studies and calculate the global prevalence of COPD in men and women. Materials and methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis reporting gender-specific prevalence of COPD was undertaken. Gender-specific prevalence estimates were abstracted from relevant studies. Associated patient characteristics as well as custom variables pertaining to the diagnostic method and other important epidemiologic covariates were also collected. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was performed investigating gender-specific prevalence of COPD stratified by age, geography, calendar time, study setting, diagnostic method, and disease severity. Measurements and main results: Among 194 eligible studies, summary prevalence was 9.23% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 8.16%–10.36% in men and 6.16% (95% CrI: 5.41%–6.95% in women. Gender prevalences varied widely by the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease subregions, with the highest female prevalence found in North America (8.07% vs 7.30% and in participants in urban settings (13.03% vs 8.34%. Meta

Comparison of prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection by sampling slaughtered cattle with macroscopic lesions vs. systematic sampling.

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Elze, J; Liebler-Tenorio, E; Ziller, M; Köhler, H

2013-07-01

The objective of this study was to identify the most reliable approach for prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in clinically healthy slaughtered cattle. Sampling of macroscopically suspect tissue was compared to systematic sampling. Specimens of ileum, jejunum, mesenteric and caecal lymph nodes were examined for MAP infection using bacterial microscopy, culture, histopathology and immunohistochemistry. MAP was found most frequently in caecal lymph nodes, but sampling more tissues optimized the detection rate. Examination by culture was most efficient while combination with histopathology increased the detection rate slightly. MAP was detected in 49/50 animals with macroscopic lesions representing 1.35% of the slaughtered cattle examined. Of 150 systematically sampled macroscopically non-suspect cows, 28.7% were infected with MAP. This indicates that the majority of MAP-positive cattle are slaughtered without evidence of macroscopic lesions and before clinical signs occur. For reliable prevalence estimation of MAP infection in slaughtered cattle, systematic random sampling is essential.

19 CFR 159.38 - Rates for estimated duties.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... TREASURY (CONTINUED) LIQUIDATION OF DUTIES Conversion of Foreign Currency § 159.38 Rates for estimated duties. For purposes of calculating estimated duties, the port director shall use the rate or rates... 19 Customs Duties 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Rates for estimated duties. 159.38 Section 159.38...

Bayesian Estimation of Fish Disease Prevalence from Pooled Samples Incorporating Sensitivity and Specificity

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Williams, Christopher J.; Moffitt, Christine M.

2003-03-01

An important emerging issue in fisheries biology is the health of free-ranging populations of fish, particularly with respect to the prevalence of certain pathogens. For many years, pathologists focused on captive populations and interest was in the presence or absence of certain pathogens, so it was economically attractive to test pooled samples of fish. Recently, investigators have begun to study individual fish prevalence from pooled samples. Estimation of disease prevalence from pooled samples is straightforward when assay sensitivity and specificity are perfect, but this assumption is unrealistic. Here we illustrate the use of a Bayesian approach for estimating disease prevalence from pooled samples when sensitivity and specificity are not perfect. We also focus on diagnostic plots to monitor the convergence of the Gibbs-sampling-based Bayesian analysis. The methods are illustrated with a sample data set.

Three-Axis Attitude Estimation Using Rate-Integrating Gyroscopes

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Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis

2016-01-01

Traditionally, attitude estimation has been performed using a combination of external attitude sensors and internal three-axis gyroscopes. There are many studies of three-axis attitude estimation using gyros that read angular rates. Rate-integrating gyros measure integrated rates or angular displacements, but three-axis attitude estimation using these types of gyros has not been as fully investigated. This paper derives a Kalman filtering framework for attitude estimation using attitude sensors coupled with rate- integrating gyroscopes. In order to account for correlations introduced by using these gyros, the state vector must be augmented, compared with filters using traditional gyros that read angular rates. Two filters are derived in this paper. The first uses an augmented state-vector form that estimates attitude, gyro biases, and gyro angular displacements. The second ignores correlations, leading to a filter that estimates attitude and gyro biases only. Simulation comparisons are shown for both filters. The work presented in this paper focuses only on attitude estimation using rate-integrating gyros, but it can easily be extended to other applications such as inertial navigation, which estimates attitude and position.

Population and antenatal-based HIV prevalence estimates in a high contracepting female population in rural South Africa

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Barnighausen Till

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To present and compare population-based and antenatal-care (ANC sentinel surveillance HIV prevalence estimates among women in a rural South African population where both provision of ANC services and family planning is prevalent and fertility is declining. With a need, in such settings, to understand how to appropriately adjust ANC sentinel surveillance estimates to represent HIV prevalence in general populations, and with evidence of possible biases inherent to both surveillance systems, we explore differences between the two systems. There is particular emphasis on unrepresentative selection of ANC clinics and unrepresentative testing in the population. Methods HIV sero-prevalence amongst blood samples collected from women consenting to test during the 2005 annual longitudinal population-based serological survey was compared to anonymous unlinked HIV sero-prevalence amongst women attending antenatal care (ANC first visits in six clinics (January to May 2005. Both surveillance systems were conducted as part of the Africa Centre Demographic Information System. Results Population-based HIV prevalence estimates for all women (25.2% and pregnant women (23.7% were significantly lower than that for ANC attendees (37.7%. A large proportion of women attending urban or peri-urban clinics would be predicted to be resident within rural areas. Although overall estimates remained significantly different, presenting and standardising estimates by age and location (clinic for ANC-based estimates and individual-residence for population-based estimates made some group-specific estimates from the two surveillance systems more predictive of one another. Conclusion It is likely that where ANC coverage and contraceptive use is widespread and fertility is low, population-based surveillance under-estimates HIV prevalence due to unrepresentative testing by age, residence and also probably by HIV status, and that ANC sentinel surveillance over-estimates

Can administrative health utilisation data provide an accurate diabetes prevalence estimate for a geographical region?

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Chan, Wing Cheuk; Papaconstantinou, Dean; Lee, Mildred; Telfer, Kendra; Jo, Emmanuel; Drury, Paul L; Tobias, Martin

2018-05-01

To validate the New Zealand Ministry of Health (MoH) Virtual Diabetes Register (VDR) using longitudinal laboratory results and to develop an improved algorithm for estimating diabetes prevalence at a population level. The assigned diabetes status of individuals based on the 2014 version of the MoH VDR is compared to the diabetes status based on the laboratory results stored in the Auckland regional laboratory result repository (TestSafe) using the New Zealand diabetes diagnostic criteria. The existing VDR algorithm is refined by reviewing the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the each of the VDR algorithm rules individually and as a combination. The diabetes prevalence estimate based on the original 2014 MoH VDR was 17% higher (n = 108,505) than the corresponding TestSafe prevalence estimate (n = 92,707). Compared to the diabetes prevalence based on TestSafe, the original VDR has a sensitivity of 89%, specificity of 96%, positive predictive value of 76% and negative predictive value of 98%. The modified VDR algorithm has improved the positive predictive value by 6.1% and the specificity by 1.4% with modest reductions in sensitivity of 2.2% and negative predictive value of 0.3%. At an aggregated level the overall diabetes prevalence estimated by the modified VDR is 5.7% higher than the corresponding estimate based on TestSafe. The Ministry of Health Virtual Diabetes Register algorithm has been refined to provide a more accurate diabetes prevalence estimate at a population level. The comparison highlights the potential value of a national population long term condition register constructed from both laboratory results and administrative data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The prevalence of diagnosed chronic conditions and multimorbidity in Australia: A method for estimating population prevalence from general practice patient encounter data.

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Christopher Harrison

Full Text Available To estimate the prevalence of common chronic conditions and multimorbidity among patients at GP encounters and among people in the Australian population. To assess the extent to which use of each individual patient's GP attendance over the previous year, instead of the average for their age-sex group, affects the precision of national population prevalence estimates of diagnosed chronic conditions.A sub-study (between November 2012 and March 2016 of the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health program, a continuous national study of GP activity. Each of 1,449 GPs provided data for about 30 consecutive patients (total 43,501 indicating for each, number of GP attendances in previous year and all diagnosed chronic conditions, using their knowledge of the patient, patient self-report, and patient's health record.Hypertension (26.5% was the most prevalent diagnosed chronic condition among patients surveyed, followed by osteoarthritis (22.7%, hyperlipidaemia (16.6%, depression (16.3%, anxiety (11.9%, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD (11.3%, chronic back pain (9.7% and Type 2 diabetes (9.6%. After adjustment, we estimated population prevalence of hypertension as 12.4%, 9.5% osteoarthritis, 8.2% hyperlipidaemia, 8.0% depression, 5.8% anxiety and 5.2% asthma. Estimates were significantly lower than those derived using the previous method. About half (51.6% the patients at GP encounters had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and over one third (37.4% had three or more. Population estimates were: 25.7% had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and 15.8% had three or more.Of the three approaches we have tested to date, this study provides the most accurate method for estimation of population prevalence of chronic conditions using the GP as an expert interviewer, by adjusting for each patient's reported attendance.

Drug use and AIDS: estimating injection prevalence in a rural state.

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Leukefeld, Carl G; Logan, T K; Farabee, David; Clayton, Richard

2002-01-01

This paper presents approaches used in one rural U.S. state to describe the level of injecting drug use and to estimate the number of injectors not receiving drug-user treatment. The focus is on two broad areas of estimation that were used to present the prevalence of injecting drug use in Kentucky. The first estimation approach uses available data from secondary data sources. The second approach involves three small community studies.

Comparing HIV prevalence estimates from prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programme and the antenatal HIV surveillance in Addis Ababa

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Mirkuzie Alemnesh H

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the absence of reliable data, antenatal HIV surveillance has been used to monitor the HIV epidemic since the late 1980s. Currently, routine data from Prevention of Mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT programmes are increasingly available. Evaluating whether the PMTCT programme reports provide comparable HIV prevalence estimates with the antenatal surveillance reports is important. In this study, we compared HIV prevalence estimates from routine PMTCT programme and antenatal surveillance in Addis Ababa with the aim to come up with evidence based recommendation. Methods Summary data were collected from PMTCT programmes and antenatal surveillance reports within the catchment of Addis Ababa. The PMTCT programme data were obtained from routine monthly reports from 2004 to 2009 and from published antenatal HIV surveillance reports from 2003 to 2009. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results In Addis Ababa, PMTCT sites had increased from six in 2004 to 54 in 2009. The site expansion was accompanied by an increased number of women testing. There were marked increases in the rate of HIV testing following the introduction of routine opt-out HIV testing approach. Paralleling these increases, the HIV prevalence showed a steady decline from 10.0% in 2004 to 4.5% in 2009. There were five antenatal surveillance sites from 2003 to 2007 in Addis Ababa and they increased to seven by 2009. Four rounds of surveillance data from five sites showed a declining trend in HIV prevalence over the years. The overall antenatal surveillance data also showed that the HIV prevalence among antenatal attendees had declined from 12.4% in 2003 to 5.5% in 2009. The HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme were 6.2% and 4.5% and from antenatal surveillance 6.1 and 5.5% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Conclusions There were consistent HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme and from antenatal surveillance reports. Both data sources

Multi-state analysis of the impacts of avian pox on a population of Serins (Serinus serinus): The importance of estimating recapture rates

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Senar, J.C.; Conroy, M.J.

2004-01-01

Disease is one of the evolutionary forces shaping populations. Recent studies have shown that epidemics like avian pox, malaria, or mycoplasmosis have affected passerine population dynamics, being responsible for the decline of some populations or disproportionately killing males and larger individuals and thus selecting for specific morphotypes. However, few studies have estimated the effects of an epidemic by following individual birds using the capture-recapture approach. Because avian pox can be diagnosed by direct examination of the birds, we are here able to analyze, using multistate models, the development and consequences of an avian pox epidemic affecting in 1996, a population of Serins (Serinus serinus) in northeastern Spain. The epidemics lasted from June to the end of November of 1996, with a maximum apparent prevalence rate > 30% in October. However, recapture rate of sick birds was very high (0.81, range 0.37-0.93) compared to that of healthy birds (0.21, range 0.020-32), which highly inflated apparent prevalence rate. This was additionally supported by the low predicted transition from the state of being uninfected to the state of being infected (0.03, SE 0.03). Once infected, Serin avian pox was very virulent with (15-day) survival rate of infected birds being of only 0.46 (SE 0.17) compared to that of healthy ones (0.87, SE 0.03). Probability of recovery from disease, provided that the bird survived the first two weeks, however, was very high (0.65, SE 0.25). The use of these estimates together with a simple model, allowed us to predict an asymptotic increase to prevalence of about 4% by the end of the outbreak period, followed by a sharp decline, with the only remaining infestations being infected birds that had not yet recovered. This is in contrast to the apparent prevalence of pox and stresses the need to estimate recapture rates when estimating population dynamics parameters. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

Small area estimation of obesity prevalence and dietary patterns: a model applied to Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.

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Cataife, Guido

2014-03-01

We propose the use of previously developed small area estimation techniques to monitor obesity and dietary habits in developing countries and apply the model to Rio de Janeiro city. We estimate obesity prevalence rates at the Census Tract through a combinatorial optimization spatial microsimulation model that matches body mass index and socio-demographic data in Brazil's 2008-9 family expenditure survey with Census 2010 socio-demographic data. Obesity ranges from 8% to 25% in most areas and affects the poor almost as much as the rich. Male and female obesity rates are uncorrelated at the small area level. The model is an effective tool to understand the complexity of the problem and to aid in policy design. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Estimating Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease for Small Areas Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity

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Peter Congdon

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand. Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are important for assessing health need. An instance is provided by England where deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease are available for small areas known as wards, but prevalence is only available for relatively large health authority areas. To estimate CHD prevalence at small area level in such a situation, a shared random effect method is proposed that pools information regarding spatial morbidity contrasts over different indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, prevalence. The shared random effect approach also incorporates differences between small areas in known risk factors (e.g., income, ethnic structure. A Poisson-multinomial equivalence may be used to ensure small area prevalence estimates sum to the known higher area total. An illustration is provided by data for London using hospital admissions and CHD deaths at ward level, together with CHD prevalence totals for considerably larger local health authority areas. The shared random effect involved a spatially correlated common factor, that accounts for clustering in latent risk factors, and also provides a summary measure of small area CHD morbidity.

Psychotropic medication in the French child and adolescent population: prevalence estimation from health insurance data and national self-report survey data

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Legleye Stéphane

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this work is to estimate the French frequencies of dispensed psychotropic prescriptions in children and adolescents. Prevalence estimations of dispensed prescriptions are compared to the frequencies of use of psychotropic reported by 17 year-old adolescents. Methods Prescription data is derived from national health insurance databases. Frequencies of dispensed prescriptions are extrapolated to estimate a range for the 2004 national rates. Self-report data is derived from the 2003 and 2005 ESCAPAD study, an epidemiological study based on a questionnaire focused on health and drug consumption. Results The prevalence estimation shows that the prevalence of prescription of a psychotropic medication to young persons between 3 and 18 years is about 2.2%. In 2005, the self-report study (ESCAPAD shows that 14.9% of 17 year-old adolescents took medication for "nerves" or "to sleep" during the previous 12 months. The same study in 2003 also shows that 62.3% of adolescents aged 17 and 18 reporting psychotropic use, took the medication for anxiety and 56.8% to sleep. Only 49.7% of these medications are suggested by a doctor. Conclusion This study underlines a similar range of prevalence of psychotropic prescriptions in France to that observed in other European countries. Nevertheless, the proportion of antipsychotics and benzodiazepines seems to be higher, whereas the proportion of methylphenidate is lower. Secondly, a disparity between the prevalence of dispensed prescriptions and the self-report of actual use of psychotropics has been highlighted by the ESCAPAD study which shows that these treatments are widely used as "self-medication".

Potential Impact of DSM-5 Criteria on Autism Spectrum Disorder Prevalence Estimates

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Maenner, Matthew J.; Rice, Catherine E.; Arneson, Carrie L.; Cunniff, Christopher; Schieve, Laura A.; Carpenter, Laura A.; Van Naarden Braun, Kim; Kirby, Russell S.; Bakian, Amanda V.; Durkin, Maureen S.

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE The DSM-5 contains revised diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) from the DSM-IV-TR. Potential impacts of the new criteria on ASD prevalence are unclear. OBJECTIVE To assess potential effects of the DSM-5 ASD criteria on ASD prevalence estimation by retrospectively applying the new criteria to population-based surveillance data collected for previous ASD prevalence estimation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cross-sectional, population-based ASD surveillance based on clinician review of coded behaviors documented in children’s medical and educational evaluations from 14 geographically defined areas in the United States participating in the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network in 2006 and 2008. This study included 8-year-old children living in ADDM Network study areas in 2006 or 2008, including 644 883 children under surveillance, of whom 6577 met surveillance ASD case status based on the DSM-IV-TR. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Proportion of children meeting ADDM Network ASD criteria based on the DSM-IV-TR who also met DSM-5 criteria; overall prevalence of ASD using DSM-5 criteria. RESULTS Among the 6577 children classified by the ADDM Network as having ASD based on the DSM-IV-TR, 5339 (81.2%) met DSM-5 ASD criteria. This percentage was similar for boys and girls but higher for those with than without intellectual disability (86.6% and 72.5%, respectively; P DSM-5 ASD criteria but not current ADDM Network ASD case status. Based on these findings, ASD prevalence per 1000 for 2008 would have been 10.0 (95% CI, 9.6–10.3) using DSM-5 criteria compared with the reported prevalence based on DSM-IV-TR criteria of 11.3 (95% CI, 11.0–11.7). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates will likely be lower under DSM-5 than under DSM-IV-TR diagnostic criteria, although this effect could be tempered by future adaptation of diagnostic practices and documentation of behaviors to fit the new

[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

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Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

2017-03-10

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

Estimating the prevalence of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands using structured additive regression.

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van de Kassteele, Jan; Zwakhals, Laurens; Breugelmans, Oscar; Ameling, Caroline; van den Brink, Carolien

2017-07-01

Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the

The impact of case definition on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder prevalence estimates in community-based samples of school-aged children.

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McKeown, Robert E; Holbrook, Joseph R; Danielson, Melissa L; Cuffe, Steven P; Wolraich, Mark L; Visser, Susanna N

2015-01-01

To determine the impact of varying attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Parent and teacher reports identified high- and low-screen children with ADHD from elementary schools in 2 states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children-IV (DISC-IV), and up to 4 additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. At baseline 1,060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least 1 follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported 6 or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI = 18.1%-23.2%) and 29.8% (CI = 24.5%-35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age 7 years (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI = 14.7%-18.0%) and 17.5% (CI = 13.3%-22.8%); requiring at least 4 teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI = 7.4%-10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased the 8.9% estimate to 11.3% (CI = 9.5%-13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age 7 onset (CI = 5.9%-11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI = 7.6%-21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the overall estimate to 13.1% (CI = 7.7%-21.5%). These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Estimation of Microbial Contamination of Food from Prevalence and Concentration Data: Application to Listeria monocytogenes in Fresh Vegetables▿

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Crépet, Amélie; Albert, Isabelle; Dervin, Catherine; Carlin, Frédéric

2007-01-01

A normal distribution and a mixture model of two normal distributions in a Bayesian approach using prevalence and concentration data were used to establish the distribution of contamination of the food-borne pathogenic bacteria Listeria monocytogenes in unprocessed and minimally processed fresh vegetables. A total of 165 prevalence studies, including 15 studies with concentration data, were taken from the scientific literature and from technical reports and used for statistical analysis. The predicted mean of the normal distribution of the logarithms of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was −2.63 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g, and its standard deviation was 1.48 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. These values were determined by considering one contaminated sample in prevalence studies in which samples are in fact negative. This deliberate overestimation is necessary to complete calculations. With the mixture model, the predicted mean of the distribution of the logarithm of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was −3.38 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g and its standard deviation was 1.46 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. The probabilities of fresh unprocessed and minimally processed vegetables being contaminated with concentrations higher than 1, 2, and 3 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g were 1.44, 0.63, and 0.17%, respectively. Introducing a sensitivity rate of 80 or 95% in the mixture model had a small effect on the estimation of the contamination. In contrast, introducing a low sensitivity rate (40%) resulted in marked differences, especially for high percentiles. There was a significantly lower estimation of contamination in the papers and reports of 2000 to 2005 than in those of 1988 to 1999 and a lower estimation of contamination of leafy salads than that of sprouts and other vegetables. The interest of the mixture model for the estimation of microbial contamination is discussed. PMID

Estimating the prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection among rural communities in Western Tanzania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bakuza, Jared S.; Denwood, Matthew J.; Nkwengulila, Gamba

2017-01-01

with sex or age. Conclusions/Significance Overall, our data suggest a more widespread distribution of S. mansoni in this part of Tanzania than was previously thought. The apparent prevalence estimates substantially under-estimated the true prevalence as determined by the ZINB models, and the two types......) models with explanatory variables of site, sex, and age. The ZINB models indicated that a substantial proportion of the observed zero FWEC reflected a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals, meaning that the estimated true prevalence was much higher than the apparent prevalence...... of sampling strategies also resulted in differing conclusions regarding prevalence of infection. We therefore recommend that future surveillance programmes designed to assess risk factors should use active sampling whenever possible, in order to avoid the self-selection bias associated with passive sampling....

Estimated prevalence of halitosis: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

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Silva, Manuela F; Leite, Fábio R M; Ferreira, Larissa B; Pola, Natália M; Scannapieco, Frank A; Demarco, Flávio F; Nascimento, Gustavo G

2018-01-01

This study aims to conduct a systematic review to determine the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults. Electronic searches were performed using four different databases without restrictions: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and SciELO. Population-based observational studies that provided data about the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults were included. Additionally, meta-analyses, meta-regression, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to synthesize the evidence. A total of 584 articles were initially found and considered for title and abstract evaluation. Thirteen articles met inclusion criteria. The combined prevalence of halitosis was found to be 31.8% (95% CI 24.6-39.0%). Methodological aspects such as the year of publication and the socioeconomic status of the country where the study was conducted seemed to influence the prevalence of halitosis. Our results demonstrated that the estimated prevalence of halitosis was 31.8%, with high heterogeneity between studies. The results suggest a worldwide trend towards a rise in halitosis prevalence. Given the high prevalence of halitosis and its complex etiology, dental professionals should be aware of their roles in halitosis prevention and treatment.

Cladoceran birth and death rates estimates

OpenAIRE

Gabriel, Wilfried; Taylor, B. E.; Kirsch-Prokosch, Susanne

1987-01-01

I. Birth and death rates of natural cladoceran populations cannot be measured directly. Estimates of these population parameters must be calculated using methods that make assumptions about the form of population growth. These methods generally assume that the population has a stable age distribution. 2. To assess the effect of variable age distributions, we tested six egg ratio methods for estimating birth and death rates with data from thirty-seven laboratory populations of Daphnia puli...

Disease prevalence estimations based on contact registrations in general practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoogenveen, Rudolf; Westert, Gert; Dijkgraaf, Marcel; Schellevis, François; de Bakker, Dinny

2002-01-01

This paper describes how to estimate the prevalence of chronic diseases in a population using data from contact registrations in general practice with a limited time length. Instead of using only total numbers of observed patients adjusted for the length of the observation period, we propose the use

Prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in Parkinson's disease: a meta-analysis.

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Kalf, J G; de Swart, B J M; Bloem, B R; Munneke, M

2012-05-01

Dysphagia is a potentially harmful feature, also in Parkinson's disease (PD). As published prevalence rates vary widely, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in PD in a meta-analysis. We conducted a systematic literature search in February 2011 and two independent reviewers selected the papers. We computed the estimates of the pooled prevalence weighted by sample size. Twelve studies were suitable for calculating prevalence rates. Ten studies provided an estimate based on subjective outcomes, which proved statistically heterogeneous (p dysphagia occurs in one third of community-dwelling PD patients. Objectively measured dysphagia rates were much higher, with 4 out of 5 patients being affected. This suggests that dysphagia is common in PD, but patients do not always report swallowing difficulties unless asked. This underreporting calls for a proactive clinical approach to dysphagia, particularly in light of the serious clinical consequences. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Updated prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in 4- to 10-year-old children in Germany. Results from the telephone-based KiGGS Wave 1 after correction for bias in parental reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Brettschneider, Anna-Kristin; Schienkiewitz, Anja; Schmidt, Steffen; Ellert, Ute; Kurth, Bärbel-Maria

2017-04-01

The nationwide 'German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents' (KiGGS), conducted in 2003-2006, showed an increase in the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity compared to the early 1990s, indicating the need for regular monitoring. Recently, a follow-up-KiGGS Wave 1 (2009-2012)-was carried out as a telephone-based survey, providing parent-reported height and weight from 5155 children aged 4-10 years. Since parental reports lead to a bias in prevalence rates of weight status, a correction is needed. From a subsample of KiGGS Wave 1 participants, measurements for height and weight were collected in a physical examination. In order to correct prevalence rates derived from parent reports, weight status categories based on parent-reported and measured height and weight were used to estimate a correction formula according to an established procedure. The corrected prevalence rates derived from KiGGS Wave 1 for overweight, including obesity, in children aged 4-10 years in Germany showed that stagnation is reached compared to the KiGGS baseline study (2003-2006). The rates for overweight, including obesity, in Germany have levelled off. However, they still remain at a high level, indicating a need for further public health action. What is Known: • In the last decades, prevalence of overweight and obesity has risen. Now a days, the prevalence seems to be stagnating. • In Germany, prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity are only available from regional or non-representative studies. What is New: • This article gives an update for prevalence rates of overweight and obesity amongst children aged 4-10 years in Germany based on a nationwide and representative sample. • Results show that stagnation in prevalence rates for overweight in children in Germany is reached.

Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2011-01-01

Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

Urban-Rural estimation of hepatitis c virus infection sero-prevalence ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background/Objective: The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been partially described for at risk groups in urban communities in Nigeria. On the other hand, literature on the possible spread of the virus in rural Nigeria remains extremely scanty. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of ...

Estimating NHL Scoring Rates

OpenAIRE

Buttrey, Samuel E.; Washburn, Alan R.; Price, Wilson L.; Operations Research

2011-01-01

The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1334 We propose a model to estimate the rates at which NHL teams score and yield goals. In the model, goals occur as if from a Poisson process whose rate depends on the two teams playing, the home-ice advantage, and the manpower (power-play, short-handed) situation. Data on all the games from the 2008-2009 season was downloaded and processed into a form suitable for the analysis. The model...

Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katharine J Looker

Full Text Available Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1 commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated.We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital.We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440-3878 million aged 0-49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%, with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67-212 million people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific.The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection.

A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines

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Francis Markham

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. Methods A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Results Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by

A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines.

Science.gov (United States)

Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce; Sugden, Mark

2017-05-23

Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM) and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs) and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by the models (I 2  ≥ 0.97; R 2  ≤ 0.01). The

Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation.

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Duchêne, D A; Hua, X; Bromham, L

2017-10-01

Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric-based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Body dysmorphic disorder in different settings: A systematic review and estimated weighted prevalence.

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Veale, David; Gledhill, Lucinda J; Christodoulou, Polyxeni; Hodsoll, John

2016-09-01

Our aim was to systematically review the prevalence of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in a variety of settings. Weighted prevalence estimate and 95% confidence intervals in each study were calculated. The weighted prevalence of BDD in adults in the community was estimated to be 1.9%; in adolescents 2.2%; in student populations 3.3%; in adult psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adolescent psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adult psychiatric outpatients 5.8%; in general cosmetic surgery 13.2%; in rhinoplasty surgery 20.1%; in orthognathic surgery 11.2%; in orthodontics/cosmetic dentistry settings 5.2%; in dermatology outpatients 11.3%; in cosmetic dermatology outpatients 9.2%; and in acne dermatology clinics 11.1%. Women outnumbered men in the majority of settings but not in cosmetic or dermatological settings. BDD is common in some psychiatric and cosmetic settings but is poorly identified. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating environmental and self-report data to refine cannabis prevalence estimates in a major urban area of Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Been, Frederic; Schneider, Christian; Zobel, Frank; Delémont, Olivier; Esseiva, Pierre

2016-10-01

Cannabis consumption is a topical subject because of discussions about reviewing current regulations. In this context, having a more comprehensive approach to assess and monitor prevalence and consumption is highly relevant. The objective of this work was to refine current estimates about prevalence of cannabis use by combining self-report data and results derived from wastewater analysis. Self-report data was retrieved from surveys conducted in Switzerland and Europe. Wastewater samples were collected at the wastewater treatment plant of Lausanne, western Switzerland, over a 15 months period. The occurrence of 11-nor-9-carboxy-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH), a specific metabolite of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), was monitored. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate consumption, prevalence and number of cannabis users in the investigated area. According to survey data, 12-months prevalence in western Switzerland was estimated to 6.2% of the population aged 15 or older, with an estimated daily cannabis consumption of 8.1gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1) (at 11.2% purity). The integrative model comprising self-report and wastewater data substantially reduced the uncertainty in the estimates and suggested a last-year prevalence of 9.4%, with a daily cannabis consumption of 14.0gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1). Although in the same order of magnitude, consumption and prevalence estimates obtained with the integrative model were 78% and 52% higher compared to self-report figures, respectively. Interestingly, these figures are similar to discrepancies observed when comparing self-reported alcohol consumption and sales or tax data. The suggested integrative model allowed to account for known sources of uncertainty and provided refined estimates of cannabis prevalence in a major urban area of Switzerland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The SOGS-RA vs. the MAGS-7: prevalence estimates and classification congruence.

Science.gov (United States)

Langhinrichsen-Rohling, Jennifer; Rohling, Martin L; Rohde, Paul; Seeley, John R

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the prevalence rate estimates and congruence in classification status derived from two popular measures of adolescent gambling (SOGS-RA and MAGS-7). Adolescents from three states (Alabama, Mississippi, and Oregon) completed an anonymous questionnaire ( n =1846 high school students total). Results indicate that the prevalence of probable adolescent pathological gambling varied both as a function of instrument and cut-off point utilized for classification (range 1.7%-8.2%). Classification groups (non-problem, at-risk, and problem gamblers) generated by both instruments were found to be associated with reports of gambling frequency, amount of money lost in one gambling occasion, and parental gambling problems. However, concern was raised because the MAGS-7 and the SOGS-RA had little congruence in their three-group classification decisions for specific individuals (e.g., only 20.5% agreement for problem gamblers). To improve clinical utility, an empirical case was made for using the SOGS-RA to generate a fourth group of adolescent gamblers, which we labeled "probable pathological gamblers" (SOGS-RA > or = 6). This group was differentiated from the remaining gambling groups on all the validity indices. The implications and limitations of these findings, as well as future directions, are discussed.

Epidemiology of Eating Disorders : Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smink, Frederique R. E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Hoek, Hans W.

Eating disorders are relatively rare among the general population. This review discusses the literature on the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of eating disorders. We searched online Medline/Pubmed, Embase and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English using several keyterms

Defining the relationship between Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical disease: statistical models for disease burden estimation

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Snow Robert W

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical malaria has proven an elusive burden to enumerate. Many cases go undetected by routine disease recording systems. Epidemiologists have, therefore, frequently defaulted to actively measuring malaria in population cohorts through time. Measuring the clinical incidence of malaria longitudinally is labour-intensive and impossible to undertake universally. There is a need, therefore, to define a relationship between clinical incidence and the easier and more commonly measured index of infection prevalence: the "parasite rate". This relationship can help provide an informed basis to define malaria burdens in areas where health statistics are inadequate. Methods Formal literature searches were conducted for Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence surveys undertaken prospectively through active case detection at least every 14 days. The data were abstracted, standardized and geo-referenced. Incidence surveys were time-space matched with modelled estimates of infection prevalence derived from a larger database of parasite prevalence surveys and modelling procedures developed for a global malaria endemicity map. Several potential relationships between clinical incidence and infection prevalence were then specified in a non-parametric Gaussian process model with minimal, biologically informed, prior constraints. Bayesian inference was then used to choose between the candidate models. Results The suggested relationships with credible intervals are shown for the Africa and a combined America and Central and South East Asia regions. In both regions clinical incidence increased slowly and smoothly as a function of infection prevalence. In Africa, when infection prevalence exceeded 40%, clinical incidence reached a plateau of 500 cases per thousand of the population per annum. In the combined America and Central and South East Asia regions, this plateau was reached at 250 cases per thousand of the population per annum. A temporal

Estimating Steatosis Prevalence in Overweight and Obese Children: Comparison of Bayesian Small Area and Direct Methods

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Hamid Reza Khalkhali

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background Often, there is no access to sufficient sample size to estimate the prevalence using the method of direct estimator in all areas. The aim of this study was to compare small area’s Bayesian method and direct method in estimating the prevalence of steatosis in obese and overweight children. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, was conducted on 150 overweight and obese children aged 2 to 15 years referred to the Children's digestive clinic of Urmia University of Medical Sciences- Iran, in 2013. After Body mass index (BMI calculation, children with overweight and obese were assessed in terms of primary tests of obesity screening. Then children with steatosis confirmed by abdominal Ultrasonography, were referred to the laboratory for doing further tests. Steatosis prevalence was estimated by direct and Bayesian method and their efficiency were evaluated using mean-square error Jackknife method. The study data was analyzed using the open BUGS3.1.2 and R2.15.2 software. Results: The findings indicated that estimation of steatosis prevalence in children using Bayesian and direct methods were between 0.3098 to 0.493, and 0.355 to 0.560 respectively, in Health Districts; 0.3098 to 0.502, and 0.355 to 0.550 in Education Districts; 0.321 to 0.582, and 0.357 to 0.615 in age groups; 0.313 to 0.429, and 0.383 to 0.536 in sex groups. In general, according to the results, mean-square error of Bayesian estimation was smaller than direct estimation (P

Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

Science.gov (United States)

Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

2014-01-01

Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

Estimation of the rate of volcanism on Venus from reaction rate measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Fegley, Bruce, Jr.; Prinn, Ronald G.

1989-01-01

Laboratory rate data for the reaction between SO2 and calcite to form anhydrite are presented. If this reaction rate represents the SO2 reaction rate on Venus, then all SO2 in the Venusian atmosphere will disappear in 1.9 Myr unless volcanism replenishes the lost SO2. The required volcanism rate, which depends on the sulfur content of the erupted material, is in the range 0.4-11 cu km of magma erupted per year. The Venus surface composition at the Venera 13, 14, and Vega 2 landing sites implies a volcanism rate of about 1 cu km/yr. This geochemically estimated rate can be used to determine if either (or neither) of two discordant geophysically estimated rates is correct. It also suggests that Venus may be less volcanically active than the earth.

Associations between presence of relevant information in referrals to radiology and prevalence rates in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Hedner, Charlotta; Sundgren, Pia C; Kelly, Aine Marie

2013-09-01

The purpose of this study was to assess if the presence of information including the pretest probability (Wells score), other known risk factors, and symptoms given on referrals for computed tomography (CT) pulmonary angiography correlated with prevalence rates for pulmonary embolism (PE). Also, to evaluate for differences between a university and a regional hospital setting regarding patient characteristics, amount of relevant information provided on referrals, and prevalence rates for pulmonary embolism. Retrospective review of all consecutive referrals (emergency room, inpatient, and outpatient) for CT performed on children and adults for suspected PE from two sites: a tertiary (university) hospital (site 1) and a secondary (regional) hospital (site 2) over a 5-year period. The overall prevalence rate was 510/3641 or 14% of all referrals. Significantly higher number of males had a positive CT compared to women (18% versus 12%, P relevant information on the referral and the probability for positive finding existed, a slight trend was noted (P = .09). In two categories, "hypoxia" and "signs of deep vein thrombosis," the presence of this information conferred a higher probability for pulmonary embolism, P information conferred a higher probability for pulmonary embolism. The amount of relevant clinical information on the request did not correlate with prevalence rates, which may reflect a lack of documentation on the part of emergency physicians who may use a "gestalt" approach. Request forms likely did not capture all relevant patient risks and many factors may interact with each other, both positively and negatively. Pretest probability estimations were rarely performed, despite their inclusion in major society guidelines. Copyright © 2013 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Objectives This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. Methods The first Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. Logistic regression was performed to identify the relationship between the prevalence of agricultural injuries and the general characteristics of the study population. Results We estimated that 3.2% (±0.00) of Korean farmers suffered agricultural injuries that required an absence of more than 4 days. The injury rates among orchard farmers (5.4 ± 0.00) were higher those of all non-orchard farmers. The odds ratio (OR) for agricultural injuries was significantly lower in females (OR: 0.45, 95% CI = 0.45–0.45) compared to males. However, the odds of injury among farmers aged 50–59 (OR: 1.53, 95% CI = 1.46–1.60), 60–69 (OR: 1.45, 95% CI = 1.39–1.51), and ≥70 (OR: 1.94, 95% CI = 1.86–2.02) were significantly higher compared to those younger than 50. In addition, the total number of years farmed, average number of months per year of farming, and average hours per day of farming were significantly associated with agricultural injuries. Conclusions Agricultural injury rates in this study were higher than rates reported by the existing compensation insurance data. Males and older farmers were at a greater risk of agriculture injuries; therefore, the prevention and management of agricultural injuries in this population is required. PMID:24808945

Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers' Occupational Disease and Injury Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Chae, Hyeseon; Min, Kyungdoo; Youn, Kanwoo; Park, Jinwoo; Kim, Kyungran; Kim, Hyocher; Lee, Kyungsuk

2014-01-01

This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. The first Korean Farmers' Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. Logistic regression was performed to identify the relationship between the prevalence of agricultural injuries and the general characteristics of the study population. We estimated that 3.2% (±0.00) of Korean farmers suffered agricultural injuries that required an absence of more than 4 days. The injury rates among orchard farmers (5.4 ± 0.00) were higher those of all non-orchard farmers. The odds ratio (OR) for agricultural injuries was significantly lower in females (OR: 0.45, 95% CI = 0.45-0.45) compared to males. However, the odds of injury among farmers aged 50-59 (OR: 1.53, 95% CI = 1.46-1.60), 60-69 (OR: 1.45, 95% CI = 1.39-1.51), and ≥70 (OR: 1.94, 95% CI = 1.86-2.02) were significantly higher compared to those younger than 50. In addition, the total number of years farmed, average number of months per year of farming, and average hours per day of farming were significantly associated with agricultural injuries. Agricultural injury rates in this study were higher than rates reported by the existing compensation insurance data. Males and older farmers were at a greater risk of agriculture injuries; therefore, the prevention and management of agricultural injuries in this population is required.

Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Seliske

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

Prevalence of estimated GFR reporting among US clinical laboratories.

Science.gov (United States)

Accetta, Nancy A; Gladstone, Elisa H; DiSogra, Charles; Wright, Elizabeth C; Briggs, Michael; Narva, Andrew S

2008-10-01

Routine laboratory reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) may help clinicians detect kidney disease. The current national prevalence of eGFR reporting in clinical laboratories is unknown; thus, the extent of the situation of laboratories not routinely reporting eGFR with serum creatinine results is not quantified. Observational analysis. National Kidney Disease Education Program survey of clinical laboratories conducted in 2006 to 2007 by mail, web, and telephone follow-up. A national random sample, 6,350 clinical laboratories, drawn from the Federal Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments database and stratified by 6 major laboratory types/groupings. Laboratory reports serum creatinine results. Reporting eGFR values with serum creatinine results. Percentage of laboratories reporting eGFR along with reporting serum creatinine values, reporting protocol, eGFR formula used, and style of reporting cutoff values. Of laboratories reporting serum creatinine values, 38.4% report eGFR (physician offices, 25.8%; hospitals, 43.6%; independents, 38.9%; community clinics, 47.2%; health fair/insurance/public health, 45.5%; and others, 43.2%). Physician office laboratories have a reporting prevalence lower than other laboratory types (P laboratories reporting eGFR, 66.7% do so routinely with all adult serum creatinine determinations; 71.6% use the 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation; and 45.3% use the ">60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)" reporting convention. Independent laboratories are least likely to routinely report eGFR (50.6%; P laboratories across all strata are more likely to report eGFR (P laboratories, federal database did not have names of laboratory directors/managers (intended respondents), assumed accuracy of federal database for sample purposes. Routine eGFR reporting with serum creatinine values is not yet universal, and laboratories vary in their reporting practices.

Prevalence rate and dentoskeletal features associated with buccally displaced maxillary canines.

Science.gov (United States)

Mucedero, Manuela; Ricchiuti, Maria Rosaria; Cozza, Paola; Baccetti, Tiziano

2013-06-01

The aim of the study was to analyse the prevalence and distribution of buccally displaced canines (BDCs) in subjects scheduled for orthodontic treatment and to investigate the association between BDC and sagittal, vertical, and transverse dentoskeletal relationships. A study sample of 1852 subjects was examined, and it was divided randomly into two groups. A first group of 252 subjects served as control group: the 'reference' prevalence rates for the examined parameters were calculated in this group. The remaining 1600 subjects comprised the sample from which the experimental BDC group was derived. Presence of unilateral or bilateral maxillary BDC, ANB, and SN GOGn angles for sagittal and vertical skeletal relationships, intercanine and intermolar distances, and tooth crowding at the maxillary arch were recorded for each subject. The statistical significance of differences between the BDC and the control groups in transverse relations and tooth crowding at the upper arch was tested by means of independent sample t-tests. Chi-square tests were performed to compare the prevalence rates of BDC and also sagittal and vertical skeletal features in the two groups. The prevalence rate of BDC was 3.06 per cent with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1. BDC subjects exhibited a significant association with hyperdivergent skeletal relationships (38.8%), reduced maxillary intercanine width, and crowding in the upper arch. The presence of specific dentoskeletal characteristics can be considered as a risk indicator for developing a buccal displacement of upper permanent canines.

Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

Science.gov (United States)

Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

2003-10-01

Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.

[Estimating glomerular filtration rate in 2012: which adding value for the CKD-EPI equation?].

Science.gov (United States)

Delanaye, Pierre; Mariat, Christophe; Moranne, Olivier; Cavalier, Etienne; Flamant, Martin

2012-07-01

Measuring or estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is still considered as the best way to apprehend global renal function. In 2009, the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology (CKD-EPI) equation has been proposed as a better estimator of GFR than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation. This new equation is supposed to underestimate GFR to a lesser degree in higher GFR levels. In this review, we will present and deeply discuss the performances of this equation. Based on articles published between 2009 and 2012, this review will underline advantages, notably the better knowledge of chronic kidney disease prevalence, but also limitations of this new equation, especially in some specific populations. We eventually insist on the fact that all these equations are estimations and nephrologists should remain cautious in their interpretation. Copyright © 2012 Association Société de néphrologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

[Estimated prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in the Canary Islands].

Science.gov (United States)

Fortea Sevilla, M S; Escandell Bermúdez, M O; Castro Sánchez, J J

2013-12-01

To make an initial estimate of the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) among children in the province of Las Palmas (Spain). Descriptive study was conducted on 1,796 children between the ages of 18 and 30 months of age, all part of the Child Health Surveillance of the Canary Islands, more specifically the province of Las Palmas, with a population of 1,090,605. The parents of children involved completed the Spanish version of the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT/ES) in the paediatric clinic. The positive cases were then diagnosed by experts by means of the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADIR) and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). A 0.61% prevalence of ASDs was determined, similar to that reported in previous studies using the same tools. The ratio was six girls for every five boys. This was contrary to the results of previous studies which suggested more boys than girls were affected. This may have been due to the sample size, which will have to be increased in future studies to confirm this outcome. An increased sample size and also spread to other age ranges should be used in order to obtain a more reliable estimate of prevalence. As regards the gender ratio, this could be a result of the small size of the sample researched, and should therefore be confirmed by further studies. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Study Heterogeneity and Estimation of Prevalence of Primary Aldosteronism: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Käyser, Sabine C; Dekkers, Tanja; Groenewoud, Hans J; van der Wilt, Gert Jan; Carel Bakx, J; van der Wel, Mark C; Hermus, Ad R; Lenders, Jacques W; Deinum, Jaap

2016-07-01

For health care planning and allocation of resources, realistic estimation of the prevalence of primary aldosteronism is necessary. Reported prevalences of primary aldosteronism are highly variable, possibly due to study heterogeneity. Our objective was to identify and explain heterogeneity in studies that aimed to establish the prevalence of primary aldosteronism in hypertensive patients. PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and reference lists from January 1, 1990, to January 31, 2015, were used as data sources. Description of an adult hypertensive patient population with confirmed diagnosis of primary aldosteronism was included in this study. Dual extraction and quality assessment were the forms of data extraction. Thirty-nine studies provided data on 42 510 patients (nine studies, 5896 patients from primary care). Prevalence estimates varied from 3.2% to 12.7% in primary care and from 1% to 29.8% in referral centers. Heterogeneity was too high to establish point estimates (I(2) = 57.6% in primary care; 97.1% in referral centers). Meta-regression analysis showed higher prevalences in studies 1) published after 2000, 2) from Australia, 3) aimed at assessing prevalence of secondary hypertension, 4) that were retrospective, 5) that selected consecutive patients, and 6) not using a screening test. All studies had minor or major flaws. This study demonstrates that it is pointless to claim low or high prevalence of primary aldosteronism based on published reports. Because of the significant impact of a diagnosis of primary aldosteronism on health care resources and the necessary facilities, our findings urge for a prevalence study whose design takes into account the factors identified in the meta-regression analysis.

Estimating the burden of acute gastrointestinal illness: a pilot study of the prevalence and underreporting in Saint Lucia, Eastern Caribbean.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabriel, Owen O; Jaime, Alina; Mckensie, Martin; Auguste, Ava; Pérez, Enrique; Indar, Lisa

2013-12-01

Saint Lucia was the first country to conduct a burden of illness study in the Caribbean to determine the community prevalence and underreporting of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). A retrospective cross-sectional population survey on AGE-related illness was administered to a random sample of residents of Saint Lucia in 20 April-16 May 2008 and 6-13 December 2009 to capture the high- and low-AGE season respectively. Of the selected 1,150 individuals, 1,006 were administered the survey through face-to-face interviews (response rate 87.4%). The overall monthly prevalence of AGE was 3.9%. The yearly incidence rate was 0.52 episodes/person-year. The age-adjusted monthly prevalence was 4.6%. The highest monthly prevalence of AGE was among children aged < 5 years (7.5%) and the lowest in persons aged 45-64 years (2.6%). The average number of days an individual suffered from diarrhoea was 3.8 days [range 1-21 day(s)]. Of the reported AGE cases, only seven (18%) sought medical care; however, 83% stayed at home due to the illness [(range 1-16 day(s), mean 2.5]; and 26% required other individuals to take care of them. The estimated underreporting of syndromic AGE and laboratory-confirmed foodborne disease pathogens was 81% and 99% respectively during the study period. The economic cost for treating syndromic AGE was estimated at US$ 3,892.837 per annum. This was a pilot study on the burden of illness (BOI) in the Caribbean. The results of the study should be interpreted within the limitations and challenges of this study. Lessons learnt were used for improving the implementation procedures of other BOI studies in the Caribbean.

Introduction to State Estimation of High-Rate System Dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Jonathan; Laflamme, Simon; Dodson, Jacob; Joyce, Bryan

2018-01-13

Engineering systems experiencing high-rate dynamic events, including airbags, debris detection, and active blast protection systems, could benefit from real-time observability for enhanced performance. However, the task of high-rate state estimation is challenging, in particular for real-time applications where the rate of the observer's convergence needs to be in the microsecond range. This paper identifies the challenges of state estimation of high-rate systems and discusses the fundamental characteristics of high-rate systems. A survey of applications and methods for estimators that have the potential to produce accurate estimations for a complex system experiencing highly dynamic events is presented. It is argued that adaptive observers are important to this research. In particular, adaptive data-driven observers are advantageous due to their adaptability and lack of dependence on the system model.

College Students' Perceived Disease Risk versus Actual Prevalence Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Matthew Lee; Dickerson, Justin B.; Sosa, Erica T.; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ory, Marcia G.

2012-01-01

Objective: To compare college students' perceived disease risk with disease prevalence rates. Methods: Data were analyzed from 625 college students collected with an Internet-based survey. Paired t-tests were used to separately compare participants' perceived 10-year and lifetime disease risk for 4 diseases: heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and…

Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes

OpenAIRE

Hlušek, Martin

2002-01-01

The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon.

Bayes estimation of the general hazard rate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarhan, A.

1999-01-01

In reliability theory and life testing models, the life time distributions are often specified by choosing a relevant hazard rate function. Here a general hazard rate function h(t)=a+bt c-1 , where c, a, b are constants greater than zero, is considered. The parameter c is assumed to be known. The Bayes estimators of (a,b) based on the data of type II/item-censored testing without replacement are obtained. A large simulation study using Monte Carlo Method is done to compare the performance of Bayes with regression estimators of (a,b). The criterion for comparison is made based on the Bayes risk associated with the respective estimator. Also, the influence of the number of failed items on the accuracy of the estimators (Bayes and regression) is investigated. Estimations for the parameters (a,b) of the linearly increasing hazard rate model h(t)=a+bt, where a, b are greater than zero, can be obtained as the special case, letting c=2

The Decreasing Prevalence of Nonrefractive Visual Impairment in Older Europeans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Delcourt, Cécile; Le Goff, Mélanie; von Hanno, Therese

2018-01-01

TOPIC: To estimate the prevalence of nonrefractive visual impairment and blindness in European persons 55 years of age and older. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Few visual impairment and blindness prevalence estimates are available for the European population. In addition, many of the data collected...... in European population-based studies currently are unpublished and have not been included in previous estimates. METHODS: Fourteen European population-based studies participating in the European Eye Epidemiology Consortium (n = 70 723) were included. Each study provided nonrefractive visual impairment...... and blindness prevalence estimates stratified by age (10-year strata) and gender. Nonrefractive visual impairment and blindness were defined as best-corrected visual acuity worse than 20/60 and 20/400 in the better eye, respectively. Using random effects meta-analysis, prevalence rates were estimated according...

Prolonged decay of molecular rate estimates for metazoan mitochondrial DNA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martyna Molak

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Evolutionary timescales can be estimated from genetic data using the molecular clock, often calibrated by fossil or geological evidence. However, estimates of molecular rates in mitochondrial DNA appear to scale negatively with the age of the clock calibration. Although such a pattern has been observed in a limited range of data sets, it has not been studied on a large scale in metazoans. In addition, there is uncertainty over the temporal extent of the time-dependent pattern in rate estimates. Here we present a meta-analysis of 239 rate estimates from metazoans, representing a range of timescales and taxonomic groups. We found evidence of time-dependent rates in both coding and non-coding mitochondrial markers, in every group of animals that we studied. The negative relationship between the estimated rate and time persisted across a much wider range of calibration times than previously suggested. This indicates that, over long time frames, purifying selection gives way to mutational saturation as the main driver of time-dependent biases in rate estimates. The results of our study stress the importance of accounting for time-dependent biases in estimating mitochondrial rates regardless of the timescale over which they are inferred.

Specific and unspecific gynecological alarm symptoms -prevalence estimates in different age groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balasubramaniam, Kirubakaran; Ravn, Pernille; Larsen, Pia V

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine prevalence estimates of gynecological alarm symptoms in different age groups and to describe common patterns of gynecological symptoms. DESIGN: Web-based cross-sectional survey study. SETTING: Nationwide in Denmark. POPULATION: A random sample of 51 090 women aged 20 years...

Estimating family planning coverage from contraceptive prevalence using national household surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Barros, Aluisio J D; Boerma, Ties; Hosseinpoor, Ahmad R; Restrepo-Méndez, María C; Wong, Kerry L M; Victora, Cesar G

2015-01-01

Contraception is one of the most important health interventions currently available and yet, many women and couples still do not have reliable access to modern contraceptives. The best indicator for monitoring family planning is the proportion of women using contraception among those who need it. This indicator is frequently called demand for family planning satisfied and we argue that it should be called family planning coverage (FPC). This indicator is complex to calculate and requires a considerable number of questions to be included in a household survey. We propose a model that can predict FPC from a much simpler indicator - contraceptive use prevalence - for situations where it cannot be derived directly. Using 197 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys from 82 countries, we explored least-squares regression models that could be used to predict FPC. Non-linearity was expected in this situation and we used a fractional polynomial approach to find the best fitting model. We also explored the effect of calendar time and of wealth on the models explored. Given the high correlation between the variables involved in FPC, we managed to derive a relatively simple model that depends only on contraceptive use prevalence but explains 95% of the variability of the outcome, with high precision for the estimated regression line. We also show that the relationship between the two variables has not changed with time. A concordance analysis showed agreement between observed and fitted results within a range of ±9 percentage points. We show that it is possible to obtain fairly good estimates of FPC using only contraceptive prevalence as a predictor, a strategy that is useful in situations where it is not possible to estimate FPC directly.

Effect of survey design and catch rate estimation on total catch estimates in Chinook salmon fisheries

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

2012-01-01

Roving–roving and roving–access creel surveys are the primary techniques used to obtain information on harvest of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho sport fisheries. Once interviews are conducted using roving–roving or roving–access survey designs, mean catch rate can be estimated with the ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator, the mean-of-ratios (MOR) estimator, or the MOR estimator with exclusion of short-duration (≤0.5 h) trips. Our objective was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates obtained from use of the two survey designs and three catch rate estimators for Idaho Chinook salmon fisheries. Information on angling populations was obtained by direct visual observation of portions of Chinook salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over an 18-d period. Based on data from the angling populations, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the properties of the catch rate estimators and survey designs. Among the three estimators, the ROM estimator provided the most accurate and precise estimates of mean catch rate and total catch for both roving–roving and roving–access surveys. On average, the root mean square error of simulated total catch estimates was 1.42 times greater and relative bias was 160.13 times greater for roving–roving surveys than for roving–access surveys. Length-of-stay bias and nonstationary catch rates in roving–roving surveys both appeared to affect catch rate and total catch estimates. Our results suggest that use of the ROM estimator in combination with an estimate of angler effort provided the least biased and most precise estimates of total catch for both survey designs. However, roving–access surveys were more accurate than roving–roving surveys for Chinook salmon fisheries in Idaho.

Use of Hedonic Prices to Estimate Capitalization Rate

OpenAIRE

Gaetano Lisi

2015-01-01

In this paper, a model of income capitalization is developed where hedonic prices play a key role in estimating the going-in capitalization rate. Precisely, the hedonic functions for rental and selling prices are introduced into a basic model of income capitalization. From the modified model, it is possible to derive a direct relationship between hedonic prices and capitalization rate. An advantage of the proposed approach is that estimation of the capitalization rate can be made without cons...

Improving Accuracy of Influenza-Associated Hospitalization Rate Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, Carrie; Kirley, Pam Daily; Aragon, Deborah; Meek, James; Farley, Monica M.; Ryan, Patricia; Collins, Jim; Lynfield, Ruth; Baumbach, Joan; Zansky, Shelley; Bennett, Nancy M.; Fowler, Brian; Thomas, Ann; Lindegren, Mary L.; Atkinson, Annette; Finelli, Lyn; Chaves, Sandra S.

2015-01-01

Diagnostic test sensitivity affects rate estimates for laboratory-confirmed influenza–associated hospitalizations. We used data from FluSurv-NET, a national population-based surveillance system for laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations, to capture diagnostic test type by patient age and influenza season. We calculated observed rates by age group and adjusted rates by test sensitivity. Test sensitivity was lowest in adults >65 years of age. For all ages, reverse transcription PCR was the most sensitive test, and use increased from 65 years. After 2009, hospitalization rates adjusted by test sensitivity were ≈15% higher for children 65 years of age. Test sensitivity adjustments improve the accuracy of hospitalization rate estimates. PMID:26292017

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John; Korenromp, Eline L

2017-01-01

Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re

Estimating the encounter rate variance in distance sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Fewster, R.M.; Buckland, S.T.; Burnham, K.P.; Borchers, D.L.; Jupp, P.E.; Laake, J.L.; Thomas, L.

2009-01-01

The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias. ?? 2008, The International Biometric Society.

The trend of pressure ulcer prevalence rates in German hospitals: results of seven cross-sectional studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kottner, Jan; Wilborn, Doris; Dassen, Theo; Lahmann, Nils

2009-05-01

Pressure ulcer prevalence rates provide useful information about the magnitude of this health problem. Only limited information on pressure ulcers in Germany was available before 2001. The purpose of this study was to compare results of seven pressure ulcer prevalence surveys which were conducted annually between 2001 and 2007 and to explore whether pressure ulcer prevalence rates decreased. The second aim was to evaluate if the measured prevalence rates of our sample could be generalised for all German hospitals. Results of seven point pressure ulcer prevalence studies conducted in 225 German hospitals were analysed. Chi-square tests, chi-square trend tests and one-way ANOVA to assess differences and trends across the years were applied. The sample was stratified according to pressure ulcer risk and speciality. Finally, study samples were compared with the potential population. In total data of 40,247 hospital patients were analysed. The overall pressure ulcer prevalence rate in German hospitals was 10.2%. Patient samples of each year were comparable regarding gender, age and pressure ulcer risk. Pressure ulcer prevalence rates decreased from 13.9% (year 2001) to 7.3% (year 2007) (pcare units remained stable. With some limitations our study results are representative for all hospitals within Germany. It is highly probable that the decrease of prevalence rates was due to an increased awareness of the pressure ulcer problem in Germany and subsequent efforts to improve pressure ulcer prevention and treatment. The quality of clinical practice regarding pressure ulcer prevention and treatment has improved. However, pressure ulcers are still relevant and require attention. In 2007, one out of 10 hospital patients who were at pressure ulcer risk had at least one pressure related skin damage.

Evaluation of test-strategies for estimating probability of low prevalence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sergeant, E.S.G.; Nielsen, Søren S.; Toft, Nils

2008-01-01

of this study was to develop a method to estimate the probability of low within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis for Danish dairy herds. A stochastic simulation model was developed using the R(R) programming environment. Features of this model included: use of age-specific estimates of test......-sensitivity and specificity; use of a distribution of observed values (rather than a fixed, low value) for design prevalence; and estimates of the probability of low prevalence (Pr-Low) based on a specific number of test-positive animals, rather than for a result less than or equal to a specified cut-point number of reactors....... Using this model, five herd-testing strategies were evaluated: (1) milk-ELISA on all lactating cows; (2) milk-ELISA on lactating cows 4 years old; (4) faecal culture on all lactating cows; and (5) milk-ELISA plus faecal culture in series on all lactating cows. The five testing strategies were evaluated...

Estimating progression rates for human papillomavirus infection from epidemiological data.

Science.gov (United States)

Jit, Mark; Gay, Nigel; Soldan, Kate; Hong Choi, Yoon; Edmunds, William John

2010-01-01

A Markov model was constructed in order to estimate type-specific rates of cervical lesion progression and regression in women with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV). The model was fitted to age- and type-specific data regarding the HPV DNA and cytological status of women undergoing cervical screening in a recent screening trial, as well as cervical cancer incidence. It incorporates different assumptions about the way lesions regress, the accuracy of cytological screening, the specificity of HPV DNA testing, and the age-specific prevalence of HPV infection. Combinations of assumptions generate 162 scenarios for squamous cell carcinomas and 54 scenarios for adenocarcinomas. Simulating an unscreened cohort of women infected with high-risk HPV indicates that the probability of an infection continuing to persist and to develop into invasive cancer depends on the length of time it has already persisted. The scenarios and parameter sets that produce the best fit to available epidemiological data provide a basis for modeling the natural history of HPV infection and disease.

Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

2014-11-01

National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

[Diabetes mellitus in Spain: death rates, prevalence, impact, costs and inequalities].

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel; Escolar-Pujolar, Antonio; Mayoral-Sánchez, Eduardo; Corral-San Laureano, Florentino; Fernández-Fernández, Isabel

2006-03-01

Describing the situation of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Spain from a public health perspective. manual review of books and other documents on diabetes mellitus in Spain was conducted. In addition, a specific research of articles published using MeSH terms diabetes mortality, prevalence, incidence, cost, inequalities and Spain was conducted in Medline through Internet (PubMed). Minimun Basic Data Set was utilized as source for complication description by Communities Autonomus. DM is one of the leading cause of mortality and the third one in women. With regard to Autonomous Communities, Canary Islands, Ceuta y Melilla and Andalusia show the greatest mortality with a downward trend. Diabetics present greater mortality than non diabetic patients, being complications the main cause of the over-mortality, especially ischemic heart disease. Estimations of prevalence for DM2 range from 4.8% to 18.7% and for DM1, from .08% to .2%. In pregnancy, it has been noted a prevalence ranging from 4.5% to 16.1%. With respect to incidence per year, it is estimated a range from 146 to 820 per 100,000 inhabitants for DM2 and a range from 10 to 17 new cases annually per 100,000 inhabitants for DM1. Costs for DM1 show very different results, averaging between 1,262 and 3,311 euro per people and year. There are differences for DM2 costs as well, averaging between 381 and 2,560 euro per patient and year. Total costs estimated range from 758 to 4,348 euro per person and year. Relationship between a low socioeconomic level (LSL) and DM2 risk has been proved. Moreover, it has been noted that the less LSL the worse is the disease control, coupled with a greater frequency and more frequent factors of DM2 risk. The knowledge about the situation of the DM as a Public Health problem in Spain is limited. Mortality data available does not gather its real magnitude, and prevalence, incidence, costs and inequalities research are very poor and hardly comparable. In spite of this degree of incertitude, we

Prevalence and incidence rate of injuries in runners at a local athletic club in Cape Town

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Hendricks

2013-12-01

Full Text Available People across the world are running on a daily basis to improvetheir health status. However, running can predispose an individual to injuryto the back and lower limb. Baseline data on prevalence, incidence rate ofinjury and aetiological factors associated with running injuries are neededby physiotherapists to develop and implement effective prevention programmesto allow optimal performance in runners. Thus, the purpose of this study wasto determine the prevalence and incidence of injuries in runners at a localathletic club.Methods: A prospective, non-experimental cohort study was conductedover a 16 week period. A sample of 50 runners completed a self-administeredquestionnaire and an injury report form recording injuries sustained during the 16 week study period. Injury prevalence andcumulative incidence was calculated as a proportion rate along with 95% confidence interval.Results: The prevalence rate of injuries was 32%. The incidence rate of injuries was 0.67 per 1000km run (95% CI: 0.41- 1.08.The most common anatomical sites for new injuries were the calf (20% and the knee (18%.Conclusions: The study found a moderate prevalence and incidence rate of injury in runners, thus the need for physiotherapyledinjury surveillance and prevention programmes have been highlighted.

Prevalence Rates of Work Organization Characteristics Among Workers in the U.S.: Data From the 2010 National Health Interview Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Alterman, Toni; Luckhaupt, Sara E.; Dahlhamer, James M.; Ward, Brian W.; Calvert, Geoffrey M.

2015-01-01

Background Surveillance is needed to capture work organization characteristics and to identify their trends. Methods Data from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to calculate prevalence rates for four work organization characteristics (long work hours, non-standard work arrangements, temporary positions, and alternative shifts) overall, and by demographic characteristics, and industry and occupation of current/recent employment. Results Data were available for 27,157 adults, of which 65% were current/recent workers. Among adults who worked in the past 12 months, 18.7% worked 48 hr or more per week, 7.2% worked 60 hr or more per week, 18.7% had non-standard work arrangements, 7.2% were in temporary positions, and 28.7% worked an alternative shift. Conclusions Prevalence rates of work organization characteristics are provided. These national estimates can be used to help occupational health professionals and employers to identify emerging occupational safety and health risks, allow researchers to examine associations with health, and use the data for benchmarking. PMID:22911666

The impact of height during childhood on the national prevalence rates of overweight

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Dommelen, Paula; De Kroon, Marlou L A; Cameron, Noël; Schon̈beck, Yvonne; Van Buuren, Stef

2014-01-01

Background: It is known that height and body mass index (BMI) are correlated in childhood. However, its impact on the (trend of) national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity has never been investigated. The aim of our study is to investigate the relation between height and national prevalence

The impact of height during childhood on the national prevalence rates of overweight

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dommelen, P. van; Kroon, M.L.A. de; Cameron, N.; Schonbeck, Y.; Buuren, S. van

2014-01-01

Background It is known that height and body mass index (BMI) are correlated in childhood. However, its impact on the (trend of) national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity has never been investigated. The aim of our study is to investigate the relation between height and national prevalence

Estimation of dose from chromosome aberration rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Deping

1990-01-01

The methods and skills of evaluating dose from correctly scored shromsome aberration rate are presented, and supplemented with corresponding BASIC computer code. The possibility and preventive measures of excessive probability of missing score of the aberrations in some of the current routine score methods are discussed. The use of dose-effect relationship with exposure time correction factor G in evaluating doses and their confidence intervals, dose estimation in mixed n-γ exposure, and identification of high by nonuniform acute exposure to low LET radiation and its dose estimation are discussed in more detail. The difference of estimated dose due to whether the interaction between subleisoms produced by n and γ have been taken into account is examined. In fitting the standard dose-aberration rate curve, proper weighing of experiment points and comparison with commonly accepted values are emphasised, and the coefficient of variation σ y √y of the aberration rate y as a function of dose and exposure time is given. In appendix I and II, the dose-aberration rate formula is derived from dual action theory, and the time variation of subleisom is illustrated and in appendix III, the estimation of dose from scores of two different types of aberrations (of other related score) is illustrated. Two computer codes are given in appendix IV, one is a simple code, the other a complete code, including the fitting of standard curve. the skills of using compressed data storage, and the production of simulated 'data ' for testing the curve fitting procedure are also given

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance

Science.gov (United States)

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco’s national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Methods Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. Results In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612–37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0–3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000–2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Conclusions Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal

Prevalence rates and epidemiological risk factors for astigmatism in Singapore school children.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Louis; Saw, Seang-Mei; Carkeet, Andrew; Chan, Wai-Ying; Wu, Hui-Min; Tan, Donald

2002-09-01

This study examined the prevalence rate of astigmatism and its epidemiological risk factors in Singapore school children. In a study of school children aged 7 to 9 years old in two schools in Singapore in 1999, a detailed questionnaire was administered to parents regarding reading or close-work habits, past history of close-work, family history, and socioeconomic factors. Cycloplegic refraction was performed five times in each eye. Defining astigmatism as worse than or equal to 0.5, 0.75, and 1 D cylinder in the right eye, the prevalence of astigmatism was calculated. The study population consisted of 1028 children. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (worse than or equal to 1 D cylinder) was 19.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.8 to 21.6). This was not different between genders, ethnic groups, or age (p > 0.05). With-the-rule astigmatism was more common than against-the-rule astigmatism. The prevalence of astigmatism and myopia was 9.8% (95% confidence interval, 8.0 to 11.6). A high AC/A ratio was associated (p = 0.003) with astigmatism, even after exclusion of myopic children. On vectorial analysis, J0 and J45 were associated with the number of hours of playing video games, whereas J45 was also associated with computer use. Only J45 was associated to male gender, a high AC/A ratio, and a family history of myopia. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was 19%. Playing video games and computer use may be associated with astigmatism severity, although the presence of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was not associated with any nearwork factors. A family history of myopia was associated with oblique astigmatism severity. A high AC/A ratio is associated with astigmatism, and this requires further investigation.

The global prevalence of common mental disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis 1980–2013

Science.gov (United States)

Steel, Zachary; Marnane, Claire; Iranpour, Changiz; Chey, Tien; Jackson, John W; Patel, Vikram; Silove, Derrick

2014-01-01

Background: Since the introduction of specified diagnostic criteria for mental disorders in the 1970s, there has been a rapid expansion in the number of large-scale mental health surveys providing population estimates of the combined prevalence of common mental disorders (most commonly involving mood, anxiety and substance use disorders). In this study we undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis of this literature. Methods: We applied an optimized search strategy across the Medline, PsycINFO, EMBASE and PubMed databases, supplemented by hand searching to identify relevant surveys. We identified 174 surveys across 63 countries providing period prevalence estimates (155 surveys) and lifetime prevalence estimates (85 surveys). Random effects meta-analysis was undertaken on logit-transformed prevalence rates to calculate pooled prevalence estimates, stratified according to methodological and substantive groupings. Results: Pooling across all studies, approximately 1 in 5 respondents (17.6%, 95% confidence interval:16.3–18.9%) were identified as meeting criteria for a common mental disorder during the 12-months preceding assessment; 29.2% (25.9–32.6%) of respondents were identified as having experienced a common mental disorder at some time during their lifetimes. A consistent gender effect in the prevalence of common mental disorder was evident; women having higher rates of mood (7.3%:4.0%) and anxiety (8.7%:4.3%) disorders during the previous 12 months and men having higher rates of substance use disorders (2.0%:7.5%), with a similar pattern for lifetime prevalence. There was also evidence of consistent regional variation in the prevalence of common mental disorder. Countries within North and South East Asia in particular displayed consistently lower one-year and lifetime prevalence estimates than other regions. One-year prevalence rates were also low among Sub-Saharan-Africa, whereas English speaking counties returned the highest lifetime prevalence

Epistemic uncertainties when estimating component failure rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jordan Cizelj, R.; Mavko, B.; Kljenak, I.

2000-01-01

A method for specific estimation of a component failure rate, based on specific quantitative and qualitative data other than component failures, was developed and is described in the proposed paper. The basis of the method is the Bayesian updating procedure. A prior distribution is selected from a generic database, whereas likelihood is built using fuzzy logic theory. With the proposed method, the component failure rate estimation is based on a much larger quantity of information compared to the presently used classical methods. Consequently, epistemic uncertainties, which are caused by lack of knowledge about a component or phenomenon are reduced. (author)

Prevalent Rate of Nonalbuminuric Renal Insufficiency and Its Association with Cardiovascular Disease Event in Korean Type 2 Diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hye Won Lee

2016-12-01

Full Text Available BackgroundNonalbuminuric renal insufficiency is a unique category of diabetic kidney diseases. The objectives of the study were to evaluate prevalent rate of nonalbuminuric renal insufficiency and to investigate its relationship with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD event in Korean patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM.MethodsLaboratory and clinical data of 1,067 subjects with T2DM were obtained and reviewed. Study subjects were allocated into four subgroups according to the CKD classification. Major CVD events were included with coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular events.ResultsNonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group, when compared with albuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group, had shorter diabetic duration, lower concentrations of glycated hemoglobin, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, lower prevalent rates of retinopathy and previous CVD, and higher rate of treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers. Nonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group showed a greater association with prior CVD events than no CKD group; however, albuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group made addition to increase prevalence of prior CVD events significantly when CKD categories were applied as covariates. Association of prior CVD events, when compared with normal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR and nonalbuminuria categories, became significant for declined eGFR, which was higher for eGFR of <30 mL/min/1.73 m2, and albuminuria.ConclusionThe results show that subjects with nonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD is significantly interrelated with occurrence of prior CVD events than those with normal eGFR with or without albuminuria. Comparing with normal eGFR and nonalbuminuria categories, the combination of increased degree of albuminuria and declined eGFR is becoming significant for the association of prior CVD events.

Prevalence of depression among mothers of young children in Honduras.

Science.gov (United States)

Wulsin, Lawson; Somoza, Eugene; Heck, Jeffery; Bauer, Leah

2010-01-01

Maternal depression is a substantial problem that has negative consequences on the health of both mother and child. Little research has been done on the prevalence of maternal depression in the developing world. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of current depression among mothers in Honduras and identify demographic predictors of depression in this sample. A modified Spanish version of the PHQ-9 and a demographic questionnaire were administered by trained interviewers to 415 rural and urban women aged 15-66 who had children between 1 and 10 years old. Prevalence of current major depressive syndrome was 17.6%. Mild depressive symptoms were detected in 52% of the sample. The estimated prevalence of current major depressive syndrome in the urban sample (19%) was not significantly greater than in the rural sample (16%, p = 0.49). None of the demographic variables measured, including age, number of children, or marital status predicted major depression in this sample. Maternal depression occurred at a high rate in this sample of Honduran women. The estimated prevalence rates in this study are similar to rates of maternal depression in studies of mothers in other Latin American countries, as well as in samples of mothers on Medicaid in the United States. Further study is needed to confirm and extend these findings, and to identify predictors of maternal depression in this population.

Updated prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in 11- to 17-year-old adolescents in Germany. Results from the telephone-based KiGGS Wave 1 after correction for bias in self-reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Brettschneider, Anna-Kristin; Brettschneidera, Anna-Kristin; Schaffrath Rosario, Angelika; Kuhnert, Ronny; Schmidt, Steffen; Wiegand, Susanna; Ellert, Ute; Kurth, Bärbel-Maria

2015-11-06

The nationwide "German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents" (KiGGS), conducted in 2003-2006, showed an increase in the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity compared to the early 1990s, indicating the need for regularly monitoring. Recently, a follow-up-KiGGS Wave 1 (2009-2012)-was carried out as a telephone-based survey, providing self-reported height and weight. Since self-reports lead to a bias in prevalence rates of weight status, a correction is needed. The aim of the present study is to obtain updated prevalence rates for overweight and obesity for 11- to 17-year olds living in Germany after correction for bias in self-reports. In KiGGS Wave 1, self-reported height and weight were collected from 4948 adolescents during a telephone interview. Participants were also asked about their body perception. From a subsample of KiGGS Wave 1 participants, measurements for height and weight were collected in a physical examination. In order to correct prevalence rates derived from self-reports, weight status categories based on self-reported and measured height and weight were used to estimate a correction formula according to an established procedure under consideration of body perception. The correction procedure was applied and corrected rates were estimated. The corrected prevalence of overweight, including obesity, derived from KiGGS Wave 1, showed that the rate has not further increased compared to the KiGGS baseline survey (18.9 % vs. 18.8 % based on the German reference). The rates of overweight still remain at a high level. The results of KiGGS Wave 1 emphasise the significance of this health issue and the need for prevention of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents.

Anxiety and dysthymia: local prevalence estimates based on drug prescriptions by general practitioners in Turin (Italy).

Science.gov (United States)

Mamo, C; Farina, E; Cicio, R; Fanì, M

2014-01-01

The aim of the study was to obtain local estimates of the prevalence of anxiety and dysthymic disorders among attendees of primary care at local level, useful to pursue a better management of the health care services. The study was conducted in the Health District no. 2 of Turin (industrial town in northwest Italy). The criteria for identification of cases were based on the drugs prescriptions made by general practitioners (GPs), selected in order to assure high specificity. The study involved 86 physicians (with 87,885 attendees). As expected, the crude and standardized prevalences were higher in women (anxiety: 2.9% vs 1.3% in men; dysthymia: 3.8% vs 1.7% in men), with a peak in women aged over 75 yrs (anxiety: 4.8%; dysthymia: 6.2%). In comparison to male GPs, female GPs had an higher prevalence of patients with anxious disorders, whereas the prevalences of dysthymia were similar. Despite the discussed limitations, the used methodology allows to obtain sufficiently reliable estimates of prevalence of common mental disorders at local level, providing informations useful for organizing the primary care in the Health district.

Prevalence, Treatment, and Control Rates of Conventional and Ambulatory Hypertension Across 10 Populations in 3 Continents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Melgarejo, Jesus D.; Maestre, Gladys E; Thijs, Lutgarde

2017-01-01

Hypertension is a major global health problem, but prevalence rates vary widely among regions. To determine prevalence, treatment, and control rates of hypertension, we measured conventional blood pressure (BP) and 24-hour ambulatory BP in 6546 subjects, aged 40 to 79 years, recruited from 10 com...

Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

2000-01-01

A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)

Short report: entomologic inoculation rates and Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Beier, J C; Killeen, G F; Githure, J I

1999-07-01

Epidemiologic patterns of malaria infection are governed by environmental parameters that regulate vector populations of Anopheles mosquitoes. The intensity of malaria parasite transmission is normally expressed as the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR), the product of the vector biting rate times the proportion of mosquitoes infected with sporozoite-stage malaria parasites. Malaria transmission intensity in Africa is highly variable with annual EIRs ranging from 1,000 infective bites per person per year. Malaria control programs often seek to reduce morbidity and mortality due to malaria by reducing or eliminating malaria parasite transmission by mosquitoes. This report evaluates data from 31 sites throughout Africa to establish fundamental relationships between annual EIRs and the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection. The majority of sites fitted a linear relationship (r2 = 0.71) between malaria prevalence and the logarithm of the annual EIR. Some sites with EIRs 80%. The basic relationship between EIR and P. falciparum prevalence, which likely holds in east and west Africa, and across different ecologic zones, shows convincingly that substantial reductions in malaria prevalence are likely to be achieved only when EIRs are reduced to levels less than 1 infective bite per person per year. The analysis also highlights that the EIR is a more direct measure of transmission intensity than traditional measures of malaria prevalence or hospital-based measures of infection or disease incidence. As such, malaria field programs need to consider both entomologic and clinical assessments of the efficacy of transmission control measures.

Prevalence of Paget's disease of bone in Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gennari, Luigi; Di Stefano, Marco; Merlotti, Daniela; Giordano, Nicola; Martini, Giuseppe; Tamone, Cristina; Zatteri, Roberto; De Lucchi, Roberto; Baldi, Carlo; Vattimo, Angelo; Capoccia, Silvia; Burroni, Luca; Geraci, Simone; De Paola, Vincenzo; Calabrò, Anna; Avanzati, Annalisa; Isaia, Giancarlo; Nuti, Ranuccio

2005-10-01

We examined the prevalence of PDB in Italy from radiological, scintigraphic, and biochemical surveys in two Italian towns. Prevalence rates varied from 0.7% to 2.4%, were higher in males than in females, and slightly differed between the two towns. Unlike previous studies in populations of British descent, no secular trend for a decreasing prevalence emerged. Clinical, radiological, and necropsy data from different countries suggested pronounced geographical variations in the prevalence of Paget's disease of bone (PDB). Despite the impact of the disease on the population, there are limited data on the prevalence of PDB in Italy. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of PDB in the district of Siena (Central Italy) and Turin (Northern Italy) from radiological, biochemical, and scintigraphic surveys. We examined a sample of 1778 consecutive pelvic radiographs performed between 1999 and 2000 at the Hospital Radiology Unit in Siena and 6609 pelvic radiographs performed in 1986-1987, 1992-1993, and 1999-2002 from the Radiology Department of Molinette Hospital in Turin. In Siena, 7906 consecutive (99m)TC-MDP bone scans performed over a 4-year period (January 2000 to May 2004) were also screened for the presence of PDB, and the prevalence of elevated alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels (>300 UI/liter) was estimated from 7449 computerized medical records over a 3-year period (January 2000 to February 2003). The finding of PDB on the pelvic radiograph and bone scan was based on standardized radiological criteria. At the end of the radiological surveys, 16/1778 pelvic PDB cases (8 males and 8 females) were observed in Siena and 41/6609 (27 males and 14 females) in Turin. The crude prevalence of the disease was 0.89% in Siena and 0.62% in Turin. Given that pelvic involvement is commonly described in 60-90% of PDB patients, the estimated overall prevalence of PDB ranged from 1.0% to 1.5% in Siena and from 0.7% to 1.0% in Turin. No decrease in the prevalence

The Neutral Interest Rate: Estimates for Chile

OpenAIRE

Rodrigo Fuentes S; Fabián Gredig U.

2008-01-01

To estimate the neutral real interest rate for Chile, we use a variety of methods that can be classified into three categories: those derived from economic theory, the neutral rate implicit in financial assets, and statistical procedures using macroeconomic data. We conclude that the neutral rate is not constant over time, but it is closely related with—though not equivalent to—the potential GDP growth rate. The application of the different methods yields fairly similar results. The neutral r...

Using Relative Statistics and Approximate Disease Prevalence to Compare Screening Tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Samuelson, Frank; Abbey, Craig

2016-11-01

Schatzkin et al. and other authors demonstrated that the ratios of some conditional statistics such as the true positive fraction are equal to the ratios of unconditional statistics, such as disease detection rates, and therefore we can calculate these ratios between two screening tests on the same population even if negative test patients are not followed with a reference procedure and the true and false negative rates are unknown. We demonstrate that this same property applies to an expected utility metric. We also demonstrate that while simple estimates of relative specificities and relative areas under ROC curves (AUC) do depend on the unknown negative rates, we can write these ratios in terms of disease prevalence, and the dependence of these ratios on a posited prevalence is often weak particularly if that prevalence is small or the performance of the two screening tests is similar. Therefore we can estimate relative specificity or AUC with little loss of accuracy, if we use an approximate value of disease prevalence.

Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using equivalent-time sampling

KAUST Repository

Ballal, Tarig

2014-09-01

In this paper, a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation is proposed. The scheme exploits multiple observations generated by transmitting multiple pulses. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC samples at a rate that is P times slower. To avoid loss of fidelity, the number of sampling periods (based on the desired rate) in the inter-pulse interval is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this case, and to achieve an overall good channel estimation performance, without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. It is shown that this estimator is related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. Channel estimation performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme combined with the new estimator is assessed in simulation. The results show that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in almost all cases, while in the high SNR regime it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. In addition to channel estimation, a synchronization method is also proposed that utilizes the same pulse sequence used for channel estimation. © 2014 IEEE.

Estimating monotonic rates from biological data using local linear regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Olito, Colin; White, Craig R; Marshall, Dustin J; Barneche, Diego R

2017-03-01

Accessing many fundamental questions in biology begins with empirical estimation of simple monotonic rates of underlying biological processes. Across a variety of disciplines, ranging from physiology to biogeochemistry, these rates are routinely estimated from non-linear and noisy time series data using linear regression and ad hoc manual truncation of non-linearities. Here, we introduce the R package LoLinR, a flexible toolkit to implement local linear regression techniques to objectively and reproducibly estimate monotonic biological rates from non-linear time series data, and demonstrate possible applications using metabolic rate data. LoLinR provides methods to easily and reliably estimate monotonic rates from time series data in a way that is statistically robust, facilitates reproducible research and is applicable to a wide variety of research disciplines in the biological sciences. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Prevalence of HIV among MSM in Europe: comparison of self-reported diagnoses from a large scale internet survey and existing national estimates

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Marcus Ulrich

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Country level comparisons of HIV prevalence among men having sex with men (MSM is challenging for a variety of reasons, including differences in the definition and measurement of the denominator group, recruitment strategies and the HIV detection methods. To assess their comparability, self-reported data on HIV diagnoses in a 2010 pan-European MSM internet survey (EMIS were compared with pre-existing estimates of HIV prevalence in MSM from a variety of European countries. Methods The first pan-European survey of MSM recruited more than 180,000 men from 38 countries across Europe and included questions on the year and result of last HIV test. HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS was compared with national estimates of HIV prevalence based on studies using biological measurements or modelling approaches to explore the degree of agreement between different methods. Existing estimates were taken from Dublin Declaration Monitoring Reports or UNAIDS country fact sheets, and were verified by contacting the nominated contact points for HIV surveillance in EU/EEA countries. Results The EMIS self-reported measurements of HIV prevalence were strongly correlated with existing estimates based on biological measurement and modelling studies using surveillance data (R2=0.70 resp. 0.72. In most countries HIV positive MSM appeared disproportionately likely to participate in EMIS, and prevalences as measured in EMIS are approximately twice the estimates based on existing estimates. Conclusions Comparison of diagnosed HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS with pre-existing estimates based on biological measurements using varied sampling frames (e.g. Respondent Driven Sampling, Time and Location Sampling demonstrates a high correlation and suggests similar selection biases from both types of studies. For comparison with modelled estimates the self-selection bias of the Internet survey with increased participation of men diagnosed with HIV has to be

A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Tan

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV in New York City (NYC are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs. To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20–59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61–2.94%, which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2% and the surveillance system (2.37%, and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20–59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals. Keywords: Bayesian evidence synthesis, Disease prevalence estimation, Hard-to-reach populations, Injecting drug use, hepatitis C in New York City

ADHD Is Highly Prevalent in Patients Seeking Treatment for Cannabis Use Disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Notzon, Daniel P; Pavlicova, Martina; Glass, Andrew; Mariani, John J; Mahony, Amy L; Brooks, Daniel J; Levin, Frances R

2016-03-31

To estimate the prevalence of ADHD and determine an effective screening test for ADHD in a population-seeking treatment for cannabis use disorders. The Conners Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview forDiagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition(DSM-IV; CAADID) was used to generate sensitivity and specificity data for ADHD screening tests, which were then administered to 99 participants seeking treatment for cannabis use disorders to estimate ADHD prevalence. The prevalence estimated from the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS) was 45% (sensitivity = 0.88, sensitivity of 0.75), from the Conners Adult ADHD Rating Scale (CAARS) 34% (sensitivity = 0.80, specificity = 0.91), from the WURS + CAARS 36% (sensitivity = 0.71, specificity = 0.95), and from the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS) 46% (sensitivity = 0.61, specificity = 0.86). The prevalence of ADHD in adults seeking treatment for cannabis use disorders is estimated to be between 34% and 46%. The WURS paired with the CAARS provides excellent sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of ADHD in this population. © The Author(s) 2016.

Estimating stutter rates for Y-STR alleles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Mikkel Meyer; Olofsson, Jill Katharina; Mogensen, Helle Smidt

2011-01-01

Stutter peaks are artefacts that arise during PCR amplification of short tandem repeats. Stutter peaks are especially important in forensic case work with DNA mixtures. The aim of the study was primarily to estimate the stutter rates of the AmpFlSTR Yfiler kit. We found that the stutter rates...

A Continuation of the Paradigm Wars? Prevalence Rates of Methodological Approaches across the Social/Behavioral Sciences

Science.gov (United States)

Alise, Mark A.; Teddlie, Charles

2010-01-01

A new line of research has emerged that examines the prevalence rates of mixed methods within disciplines in the social/behavioral sciences. Research presented in this article is unique in that it examines prevalence rates across multiple disciplines using an established cross-disciplinary classification scheme. Results indicate that there are…

Prevalence and rates of intimate partner violence among South African women during pregnancy and the postpartum period

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, Allison K.; Moodley, Dhayendre; McNaughton-Reyes, Luz; Martin, Sandra L.; Foshee, Vangie; Maman, Suzanne

2014-01-01

Objectives Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem in South Africa. However, limited research exists on IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period in South Africa. The purpose of this study is to describe the prevalence, rates and correlates of IPV among South African women during pregnancy and the first nine months postpartum. Methods Data are from a longitudinal study with women recruited during pregnancy between 2008 and 2010 at a public clinic in Durban. We used a modified version of the World Health Organization’s IPV scale to estimate prevalence and rates of IPV during pregnancy, at four months postpartum and nine months postpartum and we used logistic regression to assess the correlates of IPV during this time. Results More than 20% of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during pregnancy. Nearly one-quarter of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during the first nine months postpartum. Psychological IPV was the most prevalent type of IPV during pregnancy and the first four months postpartum. Age and previous violence within the relationship were associated with IPV during pregnancy and IPV during the postpartum period. Conclusions The high levels of IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period highlight the need to develop screening and intervention strategies specifically for this time. Further, women should be screened not only for physical violence but also psychological violence given that psychological violence may result in distinct negative consequences. PMID:24889116

The Dynamics of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Prevalence and Management Rates among Rural Population in Henan Province, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaotian Liu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to estimate the dynamics of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM prevalence and management rates based on a rural cohort study in Henan Province of China. The rural prospective study was conducted for 20194 Chinese population ≥18 years in 2007-2008 and followed during 2013-2014. A total of 14009 individuals were recruited for the prospective analysis ultimately. Over 5.74 years of follow-up, the age-standardized prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of T2DM increased from 6.18%, 44.41%, 34.39%, and 19.08% at baseline to 7.87%, 59.64%, 52.17%, and 26.52% at follow-up in total population, respectively. Similar changes were found in men and women except the age-standardized control in men. The four parameters of T2DM were higher among various factors at follow-up than those at baseline. There was no statistical difference in awareness (P=0.089 and treatment (P=0.257 in the newly diagnosed T2DM compared with the rates at baseline. The current study indicated that the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of T2DM displayed chronological increasing trends while the awareness, treatment, and control of T2DM were still disproportionally low in central China. More works are needed urgently to popularize public health education and improve the quality of medical care in T2DM.

Prevalence, rates and correlates of intimate partner violence among South African women during pregnancy and the postpartum period.

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, Allison K; Moodley, Dhayendre; McNaughton-Reyes, Luz; Martin, Sandra L; Foshee, Vangie; Maman, Suzanne

2015-03-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem in South Africa. However, limited research exists on IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period in South Africa. The purpose of this study is to describe the prevalence, rates and correlates of IPV among South African women during pregnancy and the first 9 months postpartum. Data are from a longitudinal study with women recruited during pregnancy between 2008 and 2010 at a public clinic in Durban. We used a modified version of the World Health Organization's IPV scale to estimate prevalence and rates of IPV during pregnancy, at 4 months postpartum and 9 months postpartum and we used logistic regression to assess the correlates of IPV during this time. More than 20 % of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during pregnancy. Nearly one-quarter of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during the first 9 months postpartum. Psychological IPV was the most prevalent type of IPV during pregnancy and the first 4 months postpartum. Age and previous violence within the relationship were associated with IPV during pregnancy and IPV during the postpartum period. The high levels of IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period highlight the need to develop screening and intervention strategies specifically for this time. Further, women should be screened not only for physical violence but also psychological violence given that psychological violence may result in distinct negative consequences.

Curve fitting of the corporate recovery rates: the comparison of Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Rongda; Wang, Ze

2013-01-01

Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio's loss and economic capital. Neglecting the randomness of the distribution of recovery rate may underestimate the risk. The study introduces two kinds of models of distribution, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density distribution estimation, to simulate the distribution of recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds. As is known, models based on Beta distribution are common in daily usage, such as CreditMetrics by J.P. Morgan, Portfolio Manager by KMV and Losscalc by Moody's. However, it has a fatal defect that it can't fit the bimodal or multimodal distributions such as recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds as Moody's new data show. In order to overcome this flaw, the kernel density estimation is introduced and we compare the simulation results by histogram, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation to reach the conclusion that the Gaussian kernel density distribution really better imitates the distribution of the bimodal or multimodal data samples of corporate loans and bonds. Finally, a Chi-square test of the Gaussian kernel density estimation proves that it can fit the curve of recovery rates of loans and bonds. So using the kernel density distribution to precisely delineate the bimodal recovery rates of bonds is optimal in credit risk management.

Constraints to estimating the prevalence of trypanosome infections in East African zebu cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Andrew P; Tosas, Olga; Tilley, Aimee; Picozzi, Kim; Coleman, Paul; Hide, Geoff; Welburn, Susan C

2010-09-06

In East Africa, animal trypanosomiasis is caused by many tsetse transmitted protozoan parasites including Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and subspecies of T. brucei s.l. (T. b. brucei and zoonotic human infective T. b. rhodesiense) that may co-circulate in domestic and wild animals. Accurate species-specific prevalence measurements of these parasites in animal populations are complicated by mixed infections of trypanosomes within individual hosts, low parasite densities and difficulties in conducting field studies. Many Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based diagnostic tools are available to characterise and quantify infection in animals. These are important for assessing the contribution of infections in animal reservoirs and the risk posed to humans from zoonotic trypanosome species. New matrices for DNA capture have simplified large scale field PCR analyses but few studies have examined the impact of these techniques on prevalence estimations. The Whatman FTA matrix has been evaluated using a random sample of 35 village zebu cattle from a population naturally exposed to trypanosome infection. Using a generic trypanosome-specific PCR, prevalence was systematically evaluated. Multiple PCR samples taken from single FTA cards demonstrated that a single punch from an FTA card is not sufficient to confirm the infectivity status of an individual animal as parasite DNA is unevenly distributed across the card. At low parasite densities in the host, this stochastic sampling effect results in underestimation of prevalence based on single punch PCR testing. Repeated testing increased the estimated prevalence of all Trypanosoma spp. from 9.7% to 86%. Using repeat testing, a very high prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes was detected in these local village cattle: T. brucei (34.3%), T. congolense (42.9%) and T. vivax (22.9%). These results show that, despite the convenience of Whatman FTA cards and specific PCR based detection tools, the chronically low parasitaemias in

Prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhan-Zhan; Li, Ya-Ming; Lei, Xian-Yang; Zhang, Dan; Liu, Li; Tang, Si-Yuan; Chen, Lizhang

2014-01-01

About 1 million people worldwide commit suicide each year, and college students with suicidal ideation are at high risk of suicide. The prevalence of suicidal ideation in college students has been estimated extensively, but quantitative syntheses of overall prevalence are scarce, especially in China. Accurate estimates of prevalence are important for making public policy. In this paper, we aimed to determine the prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students. Databases including PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Chinese Web of Knowledge, Wangfang (Chinese database) and Weipu (Chinese database) were systematically reviewed to identify articles published between 2004 to July 2013, in either English or Chinese, reporting prevalence estimates of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students. The strategy also included a secondary search of reference lists of records retrieved from databases. Then the prevalence estimates were summarized using a random effects model. The effects of moderator variables on the prevalence estimates were assessed using a meta-regression model. A total of 41 studies involving 160339 college students were identified, and the prevalence ranged from 1.24% to 26.00%. The overall pooled prevalence of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students was 10.72% (95%CI: 8.41% to 13.28%). We noted substantial heterogeneity in prevalence estimates. Subgroup analyses showed that prevalence of suicidal ideation in females is higher than in males. The prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students is relatively high, although the suicide rate is lower compared with the entire society, suggesting the need for local surveys to inform the development of health services for college students.

Dying for a smoke: how much does differential mortality of smokers affect estimated life-course smoking prevalence?

Science.gov (United States)

Christopoulou, Rebekka; Han, Jeffrey; Jaber, Ahmed; Lillard, Dean R

2011-01-01

An extensive literature uses reconstructed historical smoking rates by birth-cohort to inform anti-smoking policies. This paper examines whether and how these rates change when one adjusts for differential mortality of smokers and non-smokers. Using retrospectively reported data from the US (Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1986, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005), the UK (British Household Panel Survey, 1999, 2002), and Russia (Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Study, 2000), we generate life-course smoking prevalence rates by age-cohort. With cause-specific death rates from secondary sources and an improved method, we correct for differential mortality, and we test whether adjusted and unadjusted rates statistically differ. With US data (National Health Interview Survey, 1967-2004), we also compare contemporaneously measured smoking prevalence rates with the equivalent rates from retrospective data. We find that differential mortality matters only for men. For Russian men over age 70 and US and UK men over age 80 unadjusted smoking prevalence understates the true prevalence. The results using retrospective and contemporaneous data are similar. Differential mortality bias affects our understanding of smoking habits of old cohorts and, therefore, of inter-generational patterns of smoking. Unless one focuses on the young, policy recommendations based on unadjusted smoking rates may be misleading. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combination of five diagnostic tests to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection among school-aged children from a rural area of colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

Barreto, Rafael E; Narváez, Javier; Sepúlveda, Natalia A; Velásquez, Fabián C; Díaz, Sandra C; López, Myriam Consuelo; Reyes, Patricia; Moncada, Ligia I

2017-09-01

Public health programs for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiases require valid diagnostic tests for surveillance and parasitic control evaluation. However, there is currently no agreement about what test should be used as a gold standard for the diagnosis of hookworm infection. Still, in presence of concurrent data for multiple tests it is possible to use statistical models to estimate measures of test performance and prevalence. The aim of this study was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of five parallel tests (direct microscopic examination, Kato-Katz, Harada-Mori, modified Ritchie-Frick, and culture in agar plate) to detect hookworm infections in a sample of school-aged children from a rural area in Colombia. We used both, a frequentist approach, and Bayesian latent class models to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of five tests for hookworm detection, and to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection in absence of a Gold Standard. The Kato-Katz and agar plate methods had an overall agreement of 95% and kappa coefficient of 0.76. Different models estimated a sensitivity between 76% and 92% for the agar plate technique, and 52% to 87% for the Kato-Katz technique. The other tests had lower sensitivity. All tests had specificity between 95% and 98%. The prevalence estimated by the Kato-Katz and Agar plate methods for different subpopulations varied between 10% and 14%, and was consistent with the prevalence estimated from the combination of all tests. The Harada-Mori, Ritchie-Frick and direct examination techniques resulted in lower and disparate prevalence estimates. Bayesian approaches assuming imperfect specificity resulted in lower prevalence estimates than the frequentist approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating forest conversion rates with annual forest inventory data

Science.gov (United States)

Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis A. Roesch

2009-01-01

The rate of land-use conversion from forest to nonforest or natural forest to forest plantation is of interest for forest certification purposes and also as part of the process of assessing forest sustainability. Conversion rates can be estimated from remeasured inventory plots in general, but the emphasis here is on annual inventory data. A new estimator is proposed...

Prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in Parkinson's disease: a meta-analysis.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kalf, J.G.; Swart, B.J.M. de; Bloem, B.R.; Munneke, M.

2012-01-01

Dysphagia is a potentially harmful feature, also in Parkinson's disease (PD). As published prevalence rates vary widely, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in PD in a meta-analysis. We conducted a systematic literature search in February 2011 and two independent reviewers

Curve fitting of the corporate recovery rates: the comparison of Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rongda Chen

Full Text Available Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio's loss and economic capital. Neglecting the randomness of the distribution of recovery rate may underestimate the risk. The study introduces two kinds of models of distribution, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density distribution estimation, to simulate the distribution of recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds. As is known, models based on Beta distribution are common in daily usage, such as CreditMetrics by J.P. Morgan, Portfolio Manager by KMV and Losscalc by Moody's. However, it has a fatal defect that it can't fit the bimodal or multimodal distributions such as recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds as Moody's new data show. In order to overcome this flaw, the kernel density estimation is introduced and we compare the simulation results by histogram, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation to reach the conclusion that the Gaussian kernel density distribution really better imitates the distribution of the bimodal or multimodal data samples of corporate loans and bonds. Finally, a Chi-square test of the Gaussian kernel density estimation proves that it can fit the curve of recovery rates of loans and bonds. So using the kernel density distribution to precisely delineate the bimodal recovery rates of bonds is optimal in credit risk management.

Curve Fitting of the Corporate Recovery Rates: The Comparison of Beta Distribution Estimation and Kernel Density Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Rongda; Wang, Ze

2013-01-01

Recovery rate is essential to the estimation of the portfolio’s loss and economic capital. Neglecting the randomness of the distribution of recovery rate may underestimate the risk. The study introduces two kinds of models of distribution, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density distribution estimation, to simulate the distribution of recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds. As is known, models based on Beta distribution are common in daily usage, such as CreditMetrics by J.P. Morgan, Portfolio Manager by KMV and Losscalc by Moody’s. However, it has a fatal defect that it can’t fit the bimodal or multimodal distributions such as recovery rates of corporate loans and bonds as Moody’s new data show. In order to overcome this flaw, the kernel density estimation is introduced and we compare the simulation results by histogram, Beta distribution estimation and kernel density estimation to reach the conclusion that the Gaussian kernel density distribution really better imitates the distribution of the bimodal or multimodal data samples of corporate loans and bonds. Finally, a Chi-square test of the Gaussian kernel density estimation proves that it can fit the curve of recovery rates of loans and bonds. So using the kernel density distribution to precisely delineate the bimodal recovery rates of bonds is optimal in credit risk management. PMID:23874558

Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Thanner, Meridith H; Links, Jonathan M; Meltzer, Martin I; Scheulen, James J; Kelen, Gabor D

2011-01-01

Published employee absenteeism estimates during an influenza pandemic range from 10 to 40 percent. The purpose of this study was to estimate daily employee absenteeism through the duration of an influenza pandemic and to determine the relative impact of key variables used to derive the estimates. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluWorkLoss program, the authors estimated the number of absent employees on any given day over the course of a simulated 8-week pandemic wave by using varying attack rates. Employee data from a university with a large academic health system were used. Sensitivity of the program outputs to variation in predictor (inputs) values was assessed. Finally, the authors examined and documented the algorithmic sequence of the program. Using a 35 percent attack rate, a total of 47,270 workdays (or 3.4 percent of all available workdays) would be lost over the course of an 8-week pandemic among a population of 35,026 employees. The highest (peak) daily absenteeism estimate was 5.8 percent (minimum 4.8 percent; maximum 7.4 percent). Sensitivity analysis revealed that varying days missed for nonhospitalized illness had the greatest potential effect on peak absence rate (3.1 to 17.2 percent). Peak absence with 15 and 25 percent attack rates were 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The impact of an influenza pandemic on employee availability may be less than originally thought, even with a high attack rate. These data are generalizable and are not specific to institutions of higher education or medical centers. Thus, these findings provide realistic and useful estimates for influenza pandemic planning for most organizations.

ICD-11 Prevalence Rates of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Complex Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in a German Nationwide Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Maercker, Andreas; Hecker, Tobias; Augsburger, Mareike; Kliem, Sören

2018-04-01

Prevalence rates are still lacking for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and complex PTSD (CPTSD) diagnoses based on the new ICD-11 criteria. In a nationwide representative German sample (N = 2524; 14-99 years), exposure to traumatic events and symptoms of PTSD or CPTSD were assessed with the International Trauma Questionnaire. A clinical variant of CPTSD with a lower threshold for core PTSD symptoms was also calculated, in addition to conditional prevalence rates dependent on trauma type and differential predictors. One-month prevalence rates were as follows: PTSD, 1.5%; CPTSD, 0.5%; and CPTSD variant, 0.7%. For PTSD, the highest conditional prevalence was associated with kidnapping or rape, and the highest CPTSD rates were associated with sexual childhood abuse or rape. PTSD and CPTSD were best differentiated by sexual violence. Combined PTSD and CPTSD (ICD-11) rates were in the range of previously reported prevalences for unified PTSD (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition; ICD-10). Evidence on differential predictors of PTSD and CPTSD is still preliminary.

Multiresolution Motion Estimation for Low-Rate Video Frame Interpolation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hezerul Abdul Karim

2004-09-01

Full Text Available Interpolation of video frames with the purpose of increasing the frame rate requires the estimation of motion in the image so as to interpolate pixels along the path of the objects. In this paper, the specific challenges of low-rate video frame interpolation are illustrated by choosing one well-performing algorithm for high-frame-rate interpolation (Castango 1996 and applying it to low frame rates. The degradation of performance is illustrated by comparing the original algorithm, the algorithm adapted to low frame rate, and simple averaging. To overcome the particular challenges of low-frame-rate interpolation, two algorithms based on multiresolution motion estimation are developed and compared on objective and subjective basis and shown to provide an elegant solution to the specific challenges of low-frame-rate video interpolation.

Estimating the Recurrence Rate of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) in Massachusetts 1998-2007: Methods and Findings.

Science.gov (United States)

England, Lucinda; Kotelchuck, Milton; Wilson, Hoyt G; Diop, Hafsatou; Oppedisano, Paul; Kim, Shin Y; Cui, Xiaohui; Shapiro-Mendoza, Carrie K

2015-10-01

Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) may be able to reduce their risk of recurrent GDM and progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus through lifestyle change; however, there is limited population-based information on GDM recurrence rates. We used data from a population of women delivering two sequential live singleton infants in Massachusetts (1998-2007) to estimate the prevalence of chronic diabetes mellitus (CDM) and GDM in parity one pregnancies and recurrence of GDM and progression from GDM to CDM in parity two pregnancies. We examined four diabetes classification approaches; birth certificate (BC) data alone, hospital discharge (HD) data alone, both sources hierarchically combined with a diagnosis of CDM from either source taking priority over a diagnosis of GDM, and both sources combined including only pregnancies with full agreement in diagnosis. Descriptive statistics were used to describe population characteristics, prevalence of CDM and GDM, and recurrence of diabetes in successive pregnancies. Diabetes classification agreement was assessed using the Kappa statistic. Associated maternal characteristics were examined through adjusted model-based t tests and Chi square tests. A total of 134,670 women with two sequential deliveries of parities one and two were identified. While there was only slight agreement on GDM classification across HD and BC records, estimates of GDM recurrence were fairly consistent; nearly half of women with GDM in their parity one pregnancy developed GDM in their subsequent pregnancy. While estimates of progression from GDM to CDM across sequential pregnancies were more variable, all approaches yielded estimates of ≤5 %. The development of either GDM or CDM following a parity one pregnancy with no diagnosis of diabetes was diabetes prevention.

A new approach for estimation of component failure rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

1999-01-01

In the paper, a formal method for component failure rate estimation is described, which is proposed to be used for components, for which no specific numerical data necessary for probabilistic estimation exist. The framework of the method is the Bayesian updating procedure. A prior distribution is selected from a generic database, whereas the likelihood distribution is assessed from specific data on component state using principles of fuzzy logic theory. With the proposed method the component failure rate estimation is based on a much larger quantity of information compared to presently used classical methods.(author)

Hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimated prevalence in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Azevedo, Tiago Castro Lopes; Zwahlen, Marcel; Rauch, Andri; Egger, Matthias; Wandeler, Gilles

2016-01-01

Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1-80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries.

Accuracy Rates of Ancestry Estimation by Forensic Anthropologists Using Identified Forensic Cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Richard M; Parks, Connie L; Richard, Adam H

2017-07-01

A common task in forensic anthropology involves the estimation of the ancestry of a decedent by comparing their skeletal morphology and measurements to skeletons of individuals from known geographic groups. However, the accuracy rates of ancestry estimation methods in actual forensic casework have rarely been studied. This article uses 99 forensic cases with identified skeletal remains to develop accuracy rates for ancestry estimations conducted by forensic anthropologists. The overall rate of correct ancestry estimation from these cases is 90.9%, which is comparable to most research-derived rates and those reported by individual practitioners. Statistical tests showed no significant difference in accuracy rates depending on examiner education level or on the estimated or identified ancestry. More recent cases showed a significantly higher accuracy rate. The incorporation of metric analyses into the ancestry estimate in these cases led to a higher accuracy rate. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Comparing the prevalence rates of social phobia in a community according to ICD-10 and DSM-III-R Comparando estimativas de prevalência da fobia social na comunidade empregando-se a CID-10 e a DSM-III-R

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Fábio Lopes Rocha

2005-09-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: This population-based study aimed to compare the prevalence rates of social phobia using DSM-III-R and CID-10, based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI, in a Brazilian community. METHODS: This survey was carried out in a representative sample of 1,041 residents from Bambuí, Minas Gerais, Brazil (attrition rate = 14.7%. The Brazilian version of the CIDI was used. One-month, one-year and lifetime social phobia prevalence rates were estimated, employing the DSM-III-R and ICD-10 classifications, using the CIDI computer program. RESULTS: One-month, one-year, and life prevalence rates of social phobia, based on the DSM-III-R (7.9, 9.0 and 11.7% respectively were higher than those based on the ICD-10 (4.7, 5.2 and 6.7% respectively; p OBJETIVO: Este estudo populacional visa comparar estimativas de prevalência de fobia social empregando-se a CID-10 e a DSM-III-R em uma comunidade brasileira. MÉTODOS: O levantamento foi realizado em uma amostra representativa de 1.041 residentes de Bambuí, Minas Gerais, Brasil (perda = 14,7%. Foi utilizada a versão brasileira da Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI. As prevalências de 1 mês, 1 ano e vida foram estimadas empregando-se as classificações CID-10 e DSM-III-R, utilizando-se o programa de computador da CIDI. RESULTADOS: As prevalências de 1 mês, 1 ano e vida da fobia social, baseadas na DSM-III-R (7,9, 9,0 e 11,7% respectivamente foram mais elevadas que aquelas baseadas na CID-10 (4,7, 5,2 e 6,7%, respectivamente; p < 0,01 para todos. CONCLUSÃO: Nossos resultados reforçam a hipótese de que as taxas de prevalência de fobia social são mais elevadas quando baseadas na DSM-III-R em comparação com a CID-10.

Estimating contaminant discharge rates from stabilized uranium tailings embankments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, M.F.

1986-01-01

Estimates of contaminant discharge rates from stabilized uranium tailings embankments are essential in evaluating long-term impacts of tailings disposal on groundwater resources. Contaminant discharge rates are a function of water flux through tailings covers, the mass and distribution of tailings, and the concentrations of contaminants in percolating pore fluids. Simple calculations, laboratory and field testing, and analytical and numerical modeling may be used to estimate water flux through variably-saturated tailings under steady-state conditions, which develop after consolidation and dewatering have essentially ceased. Contaminant concentrations in water discharging from the tailings depend on tailings composition, leachability and solubility of contaminants, geochemical conditions within the embankment, tailings-water interactions, and flux of water through the embankment. These concentrations may be estimated based on maximum reported concentrations, pore water concentrations, extrapolations of column leaching data, or geochemical equilibria and reaction pathway modeling. Attempts to estimate contaminant discharge rates should begin with simple, conservative calculations and progress to more-complicated approaches, as necessary

Estimating disease prevalence from two-phase surveys with non-response at the second phase

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY In this paper we compare several methods for estimating population disease prevalence from data collected by two-phase sampling when there is non-response at the second phase. The traditional weighting type estimator requires the missing completely at random assumption and may yield biased estimates if the assumption does not hold. We review two approaches and propose one new approach to adjust for non-response assuming that the non-response depends on a set of covariates collected at the first phase: an adjusted weighting type estimator using estimated response probability from a response model; a modelling type estimator using predicted disease probability from a disease model; and a regression type estimator combining the adjusted weighting type estimator and the modelling type estimator. These estimators are illustrated using data from an Alzheimer’s disease study in two populations. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performances of the proposed estimators under various situations. PMID:10931514

Prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students: a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhan-Zhan Li

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: About 1 million people worldwide commit suicide each year, and college students with suicidal ideation are at high risk of suicide. The prevalence of suicidal ideation in college students has been estimated extensively, but quantitative syntheses of overall prevalence are scarce, especially in China. Accurate estimates of prevalence are important for making public policy. In this paper, we aimed to determine the prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: Databases including PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Chinese Web of Knowledge, Wangfang (Chinese database and Weipu (Chinese database were systematically reviewed to identify articles published between 2004 to July 2013, in either English or Chinese, reporting prevalence estimates of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students. The strategy also included a secondary search of reference lists of records retrieved from databases. Then the prevalence estimates were summarized using a random effects model. The effects of moderator variables on the prevalence estimates were assessed using a meta-regression model. RESULTS: A total of 41 studies involving 160339 college students were identified, and the prevalence ranged from 1.24% to 26.00%. The overall pooled prevalence of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students was 10.72% (95%CI: 8.41% to 13.28%. We noted substantial heterogeneity in prevalence estimates. Subgroup analyses showed that prevalence of suicidal ideation in females is higher than in males. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students is relatively high, although the suicide rate is lower compared with the entire society, suggesting the need for local surveys to inform the development of health services for college students.

Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-09-01

Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

Dengue virus serological prevalence and seroconversion rates in children and adults in Medellin, Colombia: implications for vaccine introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline Kyungah; Velez, Diana Carolina; Trujillo, Andrea; Egurrola, Jorge; Lee, Kang Sung; Kaufman, Jay S; DaSilva, Luiz Jacinto; Velez, Ivan Dario; Osorio, Jorge E

2017-05-01

Dengue is an important public health problem worldwide. A vaccine has recently been licensed in some countries of Latin America and Asia. Recommendations for dengue vaccine introduction include endemicity and a high serological prevalence of dengue in the territories considering its introduction. A community-based survey was conducted to estimate dengue seroprevalence and age-specific seroconversion rates in a community in Medellin, Colombia, using a dengue serological test (IgG indirect ELISA). Residents were selected at random and were first screened for dengue infection; they were then followed over 2.5 years. A total of 3684 individuals aged between 1 and 65 years participated in at least one survey. The overall dengue seroprevalence was 61%, and only 3.3% of seropositive subjects self-reported a past history of dengue. Among dengue virus (DENV)-naïve subjects with more than two visits (n=1002), the overall seroconversion rate was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 7.3-10.4) per 1000 person-months, over the study period. Overall, the mean age of DENV prevalent subjects was significantly higher than the mean age of seroconverted subjects. Specifically, DENV seropositivity over 70% was observed in participants over 21 years old. Serotype-specific plaque-reduction neutralization tests (PRNT) revealed that all four dengue serotypes were circulating, with DENV4 being most prevalent. These laboratory-based findings could inform dengue vaccine decisions, as they provide age-specific seroprevalence and seroconversion data, evidencing permanent and ongoing dengue transmission in the study area. This study provides evidence for the existing rates of secondary and heterotypic responses, presenting a challenge that must be addressed adequately by the new vaccine candidates. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Long S.; Kedem, Benjamin

1990-01-01

Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.

Smoking prevalence in Medicaid has been declining at a negligible rate.

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Shu-Hong Zhu

Full Text Available In recent decades the overall smoking prevalence in the US has fallen steadily. This study examines whether the same trend is seen in the Medicaid population.National Health Interview Survey (NHIS data from 17 consecutive annual surveys from 1997 to 2013 (combined N = 514,043 were used to compare smoking trends for 4 insurance groups: Medicaid, the Uninsured, Private Insurance, and Other Coverage. Rates of chronic disease and psychological distress were also compared.Adjusted smoking prevalence showed no detectable decline in the Medicaid population (from 33.8% in 1997 to 31.8% in 2013, trend test P = 0.13, while prevalence in the other insurance groups showed significant declines (38.6%-34.7% for the Uninsured, 21.3%-15.8% for Private Insurance, and 22.6%-16.8% for Other Coverage; all P's<0.005. Among individuals who have ever smoked, Medicaid recipients were less likely to have quit (38.8% than those in Private Insurance (62.3% or Other Coverage (69.8%; both P's<0.001. Smokers in Medicaid were more likely than those in Private Insurance and the Uninsured to have chronic disease (55.0% vs 37.3% and 32.4%, respectively; both P's<0.01. Smokers in Medicaid were also more likely to experience severe psychological distress (16.2% for Medicaid vs 3.2% for Private Insurance and 7.6% for the Uninsured; both P's<0.001.The high and relatively unchanging smoking prevalence in the Medicaid population, low quit ratio, and high rates of chronic disease and severe psychological distress highlight the need to focus on this population. A targeted and sustained campaign to help Medicaid recipients quit smoking is urgently needed.

Missing the Mark? A Two Time Point Cohort Study Estimating Intestinal Parasite Prevalence in Informal Settlements in Lima, Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Michael Townsend; Searing, Rapha A; Thompson, David M; Bard, David; Carabin, Hélène; Gonzales, Carlos; Zavala, Carmen; Woodson, Kyle; Naifeh, Monique

2017-01-01

Objectives: The World Health Organization's (WHO) recommendations list Peru as potentially needing prevention of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). Prevalence of STH varies regionally and remains understudied in the newest informal settlements of the capital city, Lima. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the need for Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of antiparasitic drugs in the newest informal settlements of Lima. The aim of this study was to estimate the season-specific prevalence of STH to determine if these prevalence estimates met the WHO threshold for MDA in 3 informal settlements. Methods : A 2 time point cohort study was conducted among a sample of 140 children aged 1 to 10 years living in 3 purposively sampled informal settlements of Lima, Peru. Children were asked to provide 2 stool samples that were analyzed with the spontaneous sedimentation in tube technique. The season-specific prevalence proportions of MDA-targeted STH were estimated using a hidden (latent) Markov modeling approach to adjust for repeated measurements over the 2 seasons and the imperfect validity of the screening tests. Results : The prevalence of MDA targeted STH was low at 2.2% (95% confidence interval = 0.3% to 6%) and 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 0.7% to 9.3%) among children sampled in the summer and winter months, respectively, when using the most conservative estimate of test sensitivity. These estimates were below the WHO threshold for MDA (20%). Conclusions : Empiric treatment for STH by organizations active in the newest informal settlements is not supported by the data and could contribute to unnecessary medication exposures and poor allocation of resources.

The Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in the Metropolitan Area of Rome: A Capture-Recapture Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Farcomeni, Alessio; Cortese, Antonio; Sgarlata, Eleonora; Alunni Fegatelli, Danilo; Marfia, Gerolama Alessandra; Buttari, Fabio; Mirabella, Massimiliano; De Fino, Chiara; Prosperini, Luca; Pozzilli, Carlo; Grasso, Maria Grazia; Iasevoli, Luigi; Di Battista, Giancarlo; Millefiorini, Enrico

2018-03-02

Limited data are available on the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in central Italy. The objective of this study is to estimate MS prevalence in the metropolitan area of Rome. We used the capture-recapture method to calculate prevalence estimates in the study area. The selected prevalence day was December 31, 2015. A total of 1,007 patients, with a definite diagnosis of MS according to the revised McDonald's criteria, were considered for crude, age- and sex-specific prevalence estimation. The overall crude prevalence rate was 146.2 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 119.9-172.5). A higher prevalence rate was recorded in females (194.1, 95% CI 149.6-238.6) than in males (93.0, 95% CI 67.2-118.8) with a female to male ratio of 1.8. Age-specific prevalence peaked in the 25-34 , 35-44 and 45-54 years class; moreover, it was found to increase up to the 45-54 years age group in females and the 35-44 years age group in males, decreasing thereafter. The results confirm that the metropolitan area of Rome is a high-risk area for MS. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Prevalence of family violence in adults and children : Estimates using the capture-recapture method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterlee, A.; Vink, R.M.; Smit, F.

2009-01-01

Background: Reliable prevalence estimates of family violence in adults and children are difficult to obtain. Most are based on surveys or registration counts, whose research designs and methods are often questionable, making the results difficult to compare. This article presents an alternative

Constraints to estimating the prevalence of trypanosome infections in East African zebu cattle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cox Andrew P

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In East Africa, animal trypanosomiasis is caused by many tsetse transmitted protozoan parasites including Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and subspecies of T. brucei s.l. (T. b. brucei and zoonotic human infective T. b. rhodesiense that may co-circulate in domestic and wild animals. Accurate species-specific prevalence measurements of these parasites in animal populations are complicated by mixed infections of trypanosomes within individual hosts, low parasite densities and difficulties in conducting field studies. Many Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR based diagnostic tools are available to characterise and quantify infection in animals. These are important for assessing the contribution of infections in animal reservoirs and the risk posed to humans from zoonotic trypanosome species. New matrices for DNA capture have simplified large scale field PCR analyses but few studies have examined the impact of these techniques on prevalence estimations. Results The Whatman FTA matrix has been evaluated using a random sample of 35 village zebu cattle from a population naturally exposed to trypanosome infection. Using a generic trypanosome-specific PCR, prevalence was systematically evaluated. Multiple PCR samples taken from single FTA cards demonstrated that a single punch from an FTA card is not sufficient to confirm the infectivity status of an individual animal as parasite DNA is unevenly distributed across the card. At low parasite densities in the host, this stochastic sampling effect results in underestimation of prevalence based on single punch PCR testing. Repeated testing increased the estimated prevalence of all Trypanosoma spp. from 9.7% to 86%. Using repeat testing, a very high prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes was detected in these local village cattle: T. brucei (34.3%, T. congolense (42.9% and T. vivax (22.9%. Conclusions These results show that, despite the convenience of Whatman FTA cards and specific PCR based

Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Young-Xu, Yinong; Chan, K Arnold

2008-08-19

The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chan K Arnold

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. Methods We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. Results In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. Conclusion The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

Chronic disease prevalence from Italian administrative databases in the VALORE project: a validation through comparison of population estimates with general practice databases and national survey

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Administrative databases are widely available and have been extensively used to provide estimates of chronic disease prevalence for the purpose of surveillance of both geographical and temporal trends. There are, however, other sources of data available, such as medical records from primary care and national surveys. In this paper we compare disease prevalence estimates obtained from these three different data sources. Methods Data from general practitioners (GP) and administrative transactions for health services were collected from five Italian regions (Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Sicily) belonging to all the three macroareas of the country (North, Center, South). Crude prevalence estimates were calculated by data source and region for diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For diabetes and COPD, prevalence estimates were also obtained from a national health survey. When necessary, estimates were adjusted for completeness of data ascertainment. Results Crude prevalence estimates of diabetes in administrative databases (range: from 4.8% to 7.1%) were lower than corresponding GP (6.2%-8.5%) and survey-based estimates (5.1%-7.5%). Geographical trends were similar in the three sources and estimates based on treatment were the same, while estimates adjusted for completeness of ascertainment (6.1%-8.8%) were slightly higher. For ischaemic heart disease administrative and GP data sources were fairly consistent, with prevalence ranging from 3.7% to 4.7% and from 3.3% to 4.9%, respectively. In the case of heart failure administrative estimates were consistently higher than GPs’ estimates in all five regions, the highest difference being 1.4% vs 1.1%. For COPD the estimates from administrative data, ranging from 3.1% to 5.2%, fell into the confidence interval of the Survey estimates in four regions, but failed to detect the higher prevalence in the most Southern region (4.0% in

Applied Prevalence Ratio estimation with different Regression models: An example from a cross-national study on substance use research.

Science.gov (United States)

Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina

2016-06-14

To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.

A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

2013-12-01

Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brissaud, Florent

2017-01-01

The IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 functional safety standards encourage the use of field feedback to estimate the failure rates of safety-related systems, which is preferred than generic data. In some cases (if “Route 2_H” is adopted for the 'hardware safety integrity constraints”), this is even a requirement. This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals, depending if the failures are detected on-line (called 'detected failures', e.g. by automatic diagnostic tests) or only revealed by proof tests (called 'undetected failures'). Examples show that for the same duration and number of failures observed, the estimated failure rates are basically higher for “undetected failures” because, in this case, the duration observed includes intervals of time where it is unknown that the elements have failed. This points out the need of using a proper approach for failure rates estimation, especially for failures that are not detected on-line. Then, this paper proposes an approach to use the estimated failure rates, with their uncertainties, for PFDavg and PFH assessment with upper confidence bounds, in accordance with IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 requirements. Examples finally show that the highest SIL that can be claimed for a safety function can be limited by the 90% upper confidence bound of PFDavg or PFH. The requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 relating to the data collection and analysis should therefore be properly considered for the study of all safety-related systems. - Highlights: • This paper deals with requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 for using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are detected on-line. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are only revealed by

Prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in Parkinson’s disease : A meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bastiaan Bloem; Johanna Kalf; Marten Munneke; Bert de Swart

2012-01-01

Dysphagia is a potentially harmful feature, also in Parkinson's disease (PD). As published prevalence rates vary widely, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in PD in a meta-analysis. We conducted a systematic literature search in February 2011 and two independent reviewers

Automating proliferation rate estimation from Ki-67 histology images

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Lahham, Heba Z.; Alomari, Raja S.; Hiary, Hazem; Chaudhary, Vipin

2012-03-01

Breast cancer is the second cause of women death and the most diagnosed female cancer in the US. Proliferation rate estimation (PRE) is one of the prognostic indicators that guide the treatment protocols and it is clinically performed from Ki-67 histopathology images. Automating PRE substantially increases the efficiency of the pathologists. Moreover, presenting a deterministic and reproducible proliferation rate value is crucial to reduce inter-observer variability. To that end, we propose a fully automated CAD system for PRE from the Ki-67 histopathology images. This CAD system is based on a model of three steps: image pre-processing, image clustering, and nuclei segmentation and counting that are finally followed by PRE. The first step is based on customized color modification and color-space transformation. Then, image pixels are clustered by K-Means depending on the features extracted from the images derived from the first step. Finally, nuclei are segmented and counted using global thresholding, mathematical morphology and connected component analysis. Our experimental results on fifty Ki-67-stained histopathology images show a significant agreement between our CAD's automated PRE and the gold standard's one, where the latter is an average between two observers' estimates. The Paired T-Test, for the automated and manual estimates, shows ρ = 0.86, 0.45, 0.8 for the brown nuclei count, blue nuclei count, and proliferation rate, respectively. Thus, our proposed CAD system is as reliable as the pathologist estimating the proliferation rate. Yet, its estimate is reproducible.

Gender differences in drunk driving prevalence rates and trends: a 20-year assessment using multiple sources of evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Jennifer

2008-09-01

This research tracked women's and men's drunk driving rates and the DUI sex ratio in the United States from 1982-2004 using three diverse sources of evidence. Sex-specific prevalence estimates and the sex ratio are derived from official arrest statistics from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, self-reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and traffic fatality data from the National Highway and Transportation Safety Administration. Drunk driving trends were analyzed using Augmented Dickey Fuller time series techniques. Female DUI arrest rates increased whereas male rates declined then stabilized, producing a significantly narrower sex ratio. According to self-report and traffic data, women's and men's drunk driving rates declined and the gender gap was unchanged. Women's overrepresentation in arrests relative to their share of offending began in the 1990s and accelerated in 2000. Women's arrest gains, contrasted with no systematic change in DUI behavior, and the timing of this shift suggest an increased vulnerability to arrest. More stringent laws and enforcement directed at less intoxicated offenders may inadvertently target female offending patterns.

Augmented Cross-Sectional Prevalence Testing for Estimating HIV Incidence

OpenAIRE

Wang, R.; Lagakos, S. W.

2010-01-01

Estimation of an HIV incidence rate based on a cross-sectional sample of individuals evaluated with both a sensitive and less-sensitive diagnostic test offers important advantages to incidence estimation based on a longitudinal cohort study. However, the reliability of the cross-sectional approach has been called into question because of two major concerns. One is the difficulty in obtaining a reliable external approximation for the mean “window period” between detectability of HIV infection ...

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

2016-11-01

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

Narrative Review: Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Homeless Youth-What Do We Know About Sexually Transmitted Disease Prevalence and Risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Caccamo, Alexandra; Kachur, Rachel; Williams, Samantha P

2017-08-01

Homelessness affects an estimated 1.6 million US youth annually. Compared with housed youth, homeless youth are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors, including inconsistent condom use, multiple sex partners, survival sex, and alcohol/drug use, putting them at increased sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk. However, there is no national estimate of STD prevalence among this population. We identified 10 peer-reviewed articles (9 unique studies) reporting STD prevalence among homeless US youth (2000-2015). Descriptive and qualitative analyses identified STD prevalence ranges and risk factors among youth. Eight studies reported specific STD prevalence estimates, mainly chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis. Overall STD prevalence among homeless youth ranged from 6% to 32%. STD rates for girls varied from 16.7% to 46%, and from 9% to 13.1% in boys. Most studies were conducted in the Western United States, with no studies from the Southeast or Northeast. Youths who experienced longer periods of homelessness were more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behaviors. Girls had lower rates of condom use and higher rates of STDs; boys were more likely to engage in anal and anonymous sex. Additionally, peer social networks contributed to protective effects on individual sexual risk behavior. Sexually transmitted disease prevalence estimates among homeless youth fluctuated greatly by study. Sexually transmitted disease risk behaviors are associated with unmet survival needs, length of homelessness, and influence of social networks. To promote sexual health and reduce STD rates, we need better estimates of STD prevalence, more geographic diversity of studies, and interventions addressing the behavioral associations identified in our review.

A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Sarah; Makela, Susanna; Heller, Daliah; Konty, Kevin; Balter, Sharon; Zheng, Tian; Stark, James H

2018-06-01

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20-59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61-2.94%), which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2%) and the surveillance system (2.37%), and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20-59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of xerostomia and the salivary flow rate in diabetic patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Malicka, Barbara; Kaczmarek, Urszula; Skośkiewicz-Malinowska, Katarzyna

2014-01-01

Diabetes is a metabolic disease characterized by hyperglycemia, which results from relative or absolute insulin deficiency. One of the first oral symptoms of diabetes is xerostomia. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of the xerostomia symptoms and salivary flow rate in diabetic patients according to the type of diabetes, the level of metabolic control and the duration of the disease. The study involved 156 adult patients of both sexes including 34 patients with diabetes type 1 (group C1), 59 with diabetes type 2 (group C2), and 63 generally healthy individuals as two control groups, sex- and age-matched to the diabetic group. The patients suffering from both types of diabetes were additionally subdivided according to the level of metabolic control and the duration of the disease. Xerostomia was diagnosed with the use of a specially prepared questionnaire and Fox's test. Moreover, the salivary flow rate of resting mixed saliva was measured. In type 1 diabetics, a significantly lower salivary flow rate in comparison to the age-matched control group (0.38 ± 0.19 mL/min vs. 0.53 ± 0.20 mL/min, p diabetics, a slight lower salivary flow rate was noticed (on average, 20% lower). Dry mouth was far more frequently diagnosed in type 1 diabetics than in the control group. In type 1 diabetics, in comparison to healthy subjects, a significantly lower resting flow rate of saliva and significantly higher prevalence of xerosomia were observed, but in type 2 diabetics, only a trend of such variability was observed.

Prevalence of hearing impairment in a rural midwestern cohort: estimates from the Keokuk county rural health study, 1994 to 1998.

Science.gov (United States)

Flamme, Gregory A; Mudipalli, V Ranjit; Reynolds, Stephen J; Kelly, Kevin M; Stromquist, Ann M; Zwerling, Craig; Burmeister, Leon F; Peng, Shu-Chen; Merchant, James A

2005-06-01

The current paper estimates the prevalence of hearing problems in a rural population, analyzes the prevalence of hearing problems across age groups, and compares the prevalence of hearing problems in this population with results obtained in other populations. Data were obtained from a random sample of the residents of a rural county, stratified by farm, rural non-farm, and town residence. Hearing test results were obtained from participants between the ages of 8 and 92 years (N = 1972; 47% male). Pure-tone thresholds were classified as normal or impaired using a number of metrics, including speech intelligibility index values. Selected comparisons of crude rates were made with previous population-based studies of hearing loss prevalence. Nearly all (99%) of the participants in this study had significant hearing impairment. Atypical hearing impairment is most prevalent at 6 kHz. In males, this excess impairment shifts to lower frequencies with age but monotonically decreases in females. Notched configurations were most common among those between 30 and 59 years old. In females, the prevalence of hearing impairments sufficient to interfere with speech understanding begins to rapidly increase in the 6th decade (4th decade in males). Comparisons with prior population-based studies in the United States and Great Britain identified few significant differences. Significant hearing impairment is common in rural populations. The high prevalence in this population is similar to that found in other population-based studies. Future studies are needed to examine (1) the risk factors for hearing impairment, (2) the natural course of hearing problems across the life span, and (3) the effect of programs for the prevention of hearing impairment and rehabilitation for persons with existing hearing impairments.

Increased Prevalence of Sleep-Disordered Breathing in Adults

Science.gov (United States)

Peppard, Paul E.; Young, Terry; Barnet, Jodi H.; Palta, Mari; Hagen, Erika W.; Hla, Khin Mae

2013-01-01

Sleep-disordered breathing is a common disorder with a range of harmful sequelae. Obesity is a strong causal factor for sleep-disordered breathing, and because of the ongoing obesity epidemic, previous estimates of sleep-disordered breathing prevalence require updating. We estimated the prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing in the United States for the periods of 1988–1994 and 2007–2010 using data from the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort Study, an ongoing community-based study that was established in 1988 with participants randomly selected from an employed population of Wisconsin adults. A total of 1,520 participants who were 30–70 years of age had baseline polysomnography studies to assess the presence of sleep-disordered breathing. Participants were invited for repeat studies at 4-year intervals. The prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing was modeled as a function of age, sex, and body mass index, and estimates were extrapolated to US body mass index distributions estimated using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The current prevalence estimates of moderate to severe sleep-disordered breathing (apnea-hypopnea index, measured as events/hour, ≥15) are 10% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7, 12) among 30–49-year-old men; 17% (95% CI: 15, 21) among 50–70-year-old men; 3% (95% CI: 2, 4) among 30–49-year-old women; and 9% (95% CI: 7, 11) among 50–70 year-old women. These estimated prevalence rates represent substantial increases over the last 2 decades (relative increases of between 14% and 55% depending on the subgroup). PMID:23589584

Effect of misclassification of antiretroviral treatment status on the prevalence of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Castro Hannah

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimates of the prevalence of transmitted HIV drug resistance (TDR in a population are derived from resistance tests performed on samples from patients thought to be naïve to antiretroviral treatment (ART. Much of the debate over reliability of estimates of the prevalence of TDR has focused on whether the sample population is representative. However estimates of the prevalence of TDR will also be distorted if some ART-experienced patients are misclassified as ART-naïve. Methods The impact of misclassification bias on the rate of TDR was examined. We developed methods to obtain adjusted estimates of the prevalence of TDR for different misclassification rates, and conducted sensitivity analyses of trends in the prevalence of TDR over time using data from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Logistic regression was used to examine trends in the prevalence of TDR over time. Results The observed rate of TDR was higher than true TDR when misclassification was present and increased as the proportion of misclassification increased. As the number of naïve patients with a resistance test relative to the number of experienced patients with a test increased, the difference between true and observed TDR decreased. The observed prevalence of TDR in the UK reached a peak of 11.3% in 2002 (odds of TDR increased by 1.10 (95% CI 1.02, 1.19, p(linear trend = 0.02 per year 1997-2002 before decreasing to 7.0% in 2007 (odds of TDR decreased by 0.90 (95% CI 0.87, 0.94, p(linear trend Conclusion The effect of misclassification of ART on estimates of the prevalence of TDR may be appreciable, and depends on the number of naïve tests relative to the number of experienced tests. Researchers can examine the effect of ART misclassification on their estimates of the prevalence of TDR if such a bias is suspected.

Review: Prevalence and dynamics of Helicobacter pylori infection during childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Zabala Torrres, Beatriz; Lucero, Yalda; Lagomarcino, Anne J; Orellana-Manzano, Andrea; George, Sergio; Torres, Juan P; O'Ryan, Miguel

2017-10-01

Long-term persistent Helicobacter pylori infection has been associated with ulceropeptic disease and gastric cancer. Although H. pylori is predominantly acquired early in life, a clear understanding of infection dynamics during childhood has been obfuscated by the diversity of populations evaluated, study designs, and methods used. Update understanding of true prevalence of H. pylori infection during childhood, based on a critical analysis of the literature published in the past 5 years. Comprehensive review and meta-analysis of original studies published from 2011 to 2016. A MEDLINE ® /PubMed ® search on May 1, 2016, using the terms pylori and children, and subsequent exclusion, based on abstract review using predefined criteria, resulted in 261 citations. An Embase ® search with the same criteria added an additional 8 citations. In healthy children, meta-analysis estimated an overall seroprevalence rate of 33% (95% CI: 27%-38%). Seven healthy cohort studies using noninvasive direct detection methods showed infection prevalence estimates ranging from 20% to 50% in children ≤5 and 38% to 79% in children >5 years. The probability of infection persistence after a first positive sample ranged from 49% to 95%. Model estimates of cross-sectional direct detection studies in asymptomatic children indicated a prevalence of 37% (95% CI: 30%-44%). Seroprevalence, but not direct detection rates increased with age; both decreased with increasing income. The model estimate based on cross-sectional studies in symptomatic children was 39% (95% CI: 35%-43%). The prevalence of H. pylori infection varied widely in the studies included here; nevertheless, model estimates by detection type were similar, suggesting that overall, one-third of children worldwide are or have been infected. The few cohort and longitudinal studies available show variability, but most studies, show infection rates over 30%. Rather surprisingly, overall infection prevalence in symptomatic children

National HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates are associated with the Human Development Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Lou, Li-Xia; Chen, Yi; Yu, Chao-Hui; Li, You-Ming; Ye, Juan

2014-10-01

HIV/AIDS is a worldwide threat to human health with mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates varying widely. We evaluated the association between the global HIV/AIDS epidemic and national socioeconomic development. We obtained global age-standardized HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates from World Health Statistics Report of the World Health Organization. The human development indexes (HDIs) of 141 countries were obtained from a Human Development Report. Countries were divided into 4 groups according to the HDI distribution. We explored the association between HIV/AIDS epidemic and HDI information using Spearman correlation analysis, regression analysis, and the Kruskal-Wallis test. HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates were inversely correlated with national HDI (r = -0.675, -0.519, and -0.398, respectively; P birth, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and gross national income per capita). Low HDI countries had higher HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates than that of medium, high, and very high HDI countries. Quantile regression results indicated that HDI had a greater negative effect on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in countries with more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. Less-developed countries are likely to have more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. There is a need to pay more attention to HIV/AIDS control in less-developed countries, where lower socioeconomic status might have accelerated the HIV/AIDS epidemic more rapidly. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of somatic symptom attribution on the prevalence rate of depression and anxiety among nursing home patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Smalbrugge, Martin; Pot, Anne Margriet; Jongenelis, Lineke; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Eefsting, Jan A

2005-01-01

The validity of diagnostic psychiatric instruments for depression and anxiety disorders may be compromised among patients with complex physical illness and disability. The objective of this study was to determine the effect on the prevalence rate of depression and anxiety in a nursing home population of attributing somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety to either somatic or psychiatric disorder. Symptoms of major depression (MD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and panic disorder (PD) were measured using the Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry (SCAN). Somatic symptoms of MD, GAD and PD were attributed to somatic causes when the interviewer was not sure about a psychiatric cause. To analyse the effect of this attribution on the prevalence rate of MD, GAD and PD, a sensitivity analysis was undertaken in which symptoms that were attributed to somatic causes were recoded as symptoms attributed to psychiatric disorder. Prevalence rates of MD, GAD and PD were calculated before and after recoding. The prevalence of MD after recoding rose from 7.5% to 8.1%. The prevalence of GAD did not change. The prevalence of PD rose from 1.5% to 1.8%. Attribution of somatic symptoms to either somatic or psychiatric disorder when the interviewer was not sure about a psychiatric cause of the somatic symptoms had only a very modest effect on the prevalence rate of major depression, generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder in a nursing home population.

Field Programmable Gate Array Failure Rate Estimation Guidelines for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

Science.gov (United States)

Al Hassan, Mohammad; Novack, Steven D.; Hatfield, Glen S.; Britton, Paul

2017-01-01

Today's launch vehicles complex electronic and avionic systems heavily utilize the Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) integrated circuit (IC). FPGAs are prevalent ICs in communication protocols such as MIL-STD-1553B, and in control signal commands such as in solenoid/servo valves actuations. This paper will demonstrate guidelines to estimate FPGA failure rates for a launch vehicle, the guidelines will account for hardware, firmware, and radiation induced failures. The hardware contribution of the approach accounts for physical failures of the IC, FPGA memory and clock. The firmware portion will provide guidelines on the high level FPGA programming language and ways to account for software/code reliability growth. The radiation portion will provide guidelines on environment susceptibility as well as guidelines on tailoring other launch vehicle programs historical data to a specific launch vehicle.

On Estimating Marginal Tax Rates for U.S. States

OpenAIRE

Reed, W. Robert; Rogers, Cynthia L; Skidmore, Mark

2011-01-01

This paper presents a procedure for generating state-specific time-varying estimates of marginal tax rates (MTRs). Most estimates of MTRs follow a procedure developed by Koester and Kormendi (1989) (K&K). Unfortunately, the time-invariant nature of the K&K estimates precludes their use as explanatory variables in panel data studies with fixed effects. Furthermore, the associated MTR estimates are not explicitly linked to statutory tax parameters. Our approach addresses both shortcomings. Usin...

Estimating evolutionary rates using time-structured data: a general comparison of phylogenetic methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Duchêne, Sebastián; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holmes, Edward C; Ho, Simon Y W

2016-11-15

In rapidly evolving pathogens, including viruses and some bacteria, genetic change can accumulate over short time-frames. Accordingly, their sampling times can be used to calibrate molecular clocks, allowing estimation of evolutionary rates. Methods for estimating rates from time-structured data vary in how they treat phylogenetic uncertainty and rate variation among lineages. We compiled 81 virus data sets and estimated nucleotide substitution rates using root-to-tip regression, least-squares dating and Bayesian inference. Although estimates from these three methods were often congruent, this largely relied on the choice of clock model. In particular, relaxed-clock models tended to produce higher rate estimates than methods that assume constant rates. Discrepancies in rate estimates were also associated with high among-lineage rate variation, and phylogenetic and temporal clustering. These results provide insights into the factors that affect the reliability of rate estimates from time-structured sequence data, emphasizing the importance of clock-model testing. sduchene@unimelb.edu.au or garzonsebastian@hotmail.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimating the prevalence of illicit opioid use in New York City using multiple data sources

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McNeely Jennifer

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite concerns about its health and social consequences, little is known about the prevalence of illicit opioid use in New York City. Individuals who misuse heroin and prescription opioids are known to bear a disproportionate burden of morbidity and mortality. Service providers and public health authorities are challenged to provide appropriate interventions in the absence of basic knowledge about the size and characteristics of this population. While illicit drug users are underrepresented in population-based surveys, they may be identified in multiple administrative data sources. Methods We analyzed large datasets tracking hospital inpatient and emergency room admissions as well as drug treatment and detoxification services utilization. These were applied in combination with findings from a large general population survey and administrative records tracking prescriptions, drug overdose deaths, and correctional health services, to estimate the prevalence of heroin and non-medical prescription opioid use among New York City residents in 2006. These data were further applied to a descriptive analysis of opioid users entering drug treatment and hospital-based medical care. Results These data sources identified 126,681 cases of opioid use among New York City residents in 2006. After applying adjustment scenarios to account for potential overlap between data sources, we estimated over 92,000 individual opioid users. By contrast, just 21,600 opioid users initiated drug treatment in 2006. Opioid users represented 4 % of all individuals hospitalized, and over 44,000 hospitalizations during the calendar year. Conclusions Our findings suggest that innovative approaches are needed to provide adequate services to this sizeable population of opioid users. Given the observed high rates of hospital services utilization, greater integration of drug services into medical settings could be one component of an effective approach to

Prevalence Estimates for Pharmacological Neuroenhancement in Austrian University Students: Its Relation to Health-Related Risk Attitude and the Framing Effect of Caffeine Tablets

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Pavel Dietz

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Pharmacological neuroenhancement (PN is defined as the use of illicit or prescription drugs by healthy individuals for cognitive-enhancing purposes. The present study aimed (i to investigate whether including caffeine tablets in the definition of PN within a questionnaire increases the PN prevalence estimate (framing effect, (ii to investigate whether the health-related risk attitude is increased in students who use PN.Materials and methods: Two versions of a paper-and-pencil questionnaire (first version included caffeine tablets in the definition of PN, the second excluded caffeine tablets were distributed among university students at the University of Graz, Austria. The unrelated question model (UQM was used to estimate the 12-month PN prevalence and the German version of the 30-item Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT scale to assess the health-related risk attitude. Moreover, large-sample z-tests (α = 0.05 were performed for comparing the PN prevalence estimates of two groups.Results: Two thousand four hundred and eighty-nine questionnaires were distributed and 2,284 (91.8% questionnaires were included in analysis. The overall PN prevalence estimate for all students was 11.9%. One-tailed large-sample z-tests revealed that the PN estimate for students with higher health-related risk attitude was significantly higher compared to students with lower health-related risk attitude (15.6 vs. 8.5%; z = 2.65, p = 0.004. Furthermore, when caffeine tablets were included into the example of PN, the prevalence estimate of PN was significantly higher compared to the version without caffeine tablets (14.9 vs. 9.0%; z = 2.20, p = 0.014.Discussion: This study revealed that the PN prevalence estimate increases when caffeine tablets are included in the definition of PN. Therefore, future studies investigating the prevalence of, and predictors for, PN should be performed and interpreted with respect to potential framing effects. This study further

Utility of Capture-Recapture Methodology to Estimate Prevalence of Congenital Heart Defects Among Adolescents in 11 New York State Counties: 2008 to 2010.

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Akkaya-Hocagil, Tugba; Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Sommerhalter, Kristin; McGarry, Claire; Van Zutphen, Alissa

2017-11-01

Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common birth defects in the United States, and the population of individuals living with CHDs is growing. Though CHD prevalence in infancy has been well characterized, better prevalence estimates among children and adolescents in the United States are still needed. We used capture-recapture methods to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents residing in 11 New York counties. The three data sources used for analysis included Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) hospital inpatient records, SPARCS outpatient records, and medical records provided by seven pediatric congenital cardiac clinics from 2008 to 2010. Bayesian log-linear models were fit using the R package Conting to account for dataset dependencies and heterogeneous catchability. A total of 2537 adolescent CHD cases were captured in our three data sources. Forty-four cases were identified in all data sources, 283 cases were identified in two of three data sources, and 2210 cases were identified in a single data source. The final model yielded an estimated total adolescent CHD population of 3845, indicating that 66% of the cases in the catchment area were identified in the case-identifying data sources. Based on 2010 Census estimates, we estimated adolescent CHD prevalence as 6.4 CHD cases per 1000 adolescents (95% confidence interval: 6.2-6.6). We used capture-recapture methodology with a population-based surveillance system in New York to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents. Future research incorporating additional data sources may improve prevalence estimates in this population. Birth Defects Research 109:1423-1429, 2017.© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Spanish multicenter study to estimate the prevalence and incidence of chronic pancreatitis and its complications

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J. Enrique Domínguez-Muñoz

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Background and objective: No nation-wide epidemiological study on the incidence and prevalence of chronic pancreatitis (CP had been thus far carried out in Spain. Our goal is to estimate the prevalence and incidence of CP, as well as to determine the diagnostic and therapeutic criteria used in Spanish pancreas units. Methods: An observarional, descriptive study of hospital pancreas units in Spain. CP-related epidemiology, etiology, manifestations, diagnostic tests, functional complications, and treatments were all assessed using a structured questionnaire. Overall results were estimated by weighting cases in each site. Results: Information was collected from six pancreas units with a sample frame of 1,900,751 inhabitants. Overall prevalence was 49.3 cases per 10(5 population (95 % CI, 46 to 52 and incidence was 5.5 cases per 10(5 inhabitant-years (95 % CI, 5.4 to 5.6. Most common etiologies included tobacco and alcoholism, which were associated with three in every four cases. The most prevalent symptoms were recurring pain (48.8 % and chronic abdominal pain (30.6 %. The most widely used diagnostic method was echoendoscopy (79.8 %, CT (computerized tomography (58.7 %, and MRI (magnetic resonance imaging/MRCP (magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (55.9 %. Most prevalent morphologic findings included calcifications (35 % and pseudocysts (27 %. Exocrine (38.8 % and endocrine (35.2 % pancreatic insufficiency had both a similar frequency. Treatments used were rather heterogeneous among sites, with enzyme replacement therapy (40.7 % and insulin (30.9 % being most commonly used. Conclusions: Pancreas units amass a significant number of both prevalent and incident CP cases. Patients seen in these units share a similar typology, and differences between units are greater regarding diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

The risk of perinatal hepatitis B virus transmission: hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg prevalence estimates for all world regions

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Ott Jördis J

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background HBeAg presence in childbearing-age women is a major determinant of perinatal hepatitis B virus (HBV transmission. The risk of developing chronic HBV infection and liver disease is highest at young age. Our aim was to assess perinatal HBV transmission risk by means of estimating age- and region-specific HBeAg prevalence. Methods Based on observed HBeAg seroprevalence data obtained from a systematic literature review, we modeled HBeAg prevalence using an empirical Bayesian hierarchical model. Age- and region-specific estimates were generated for 1990 and 2005. Results Globally, highest HBeAg prevalence of over 50 % was found in 0–9 years old girls. At reproductive age, HBeAg prevalence was 20-50 %. Prevalence was highest in young females in East Asia in 1990 (78 %, the infection was less common in Sub-Saharan and North Africa. Regional differences in prevalence were smaller in 2005. There was an overall decrease in HBeAg between 1990 and 2005, which was strongest among girls in Oceania (23.3 % decline, South and South-East Asia (14 % decline. However, in these regions, prevalence remained high at 67 % among young females in 2005. Smaller decreases were observed in women at reproductive age, at which 24-32 % of all HBsAg-positive women were HBeAg-positive in 2005, with lowest prevalence in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and highest prevalence in Oceania and South-East Asia. Conclusions HBeAg estimates are crucial for understanding the epidemiology of HBV and for prioritizing implementation of WHO`s prevention recommendations for all infants to receive the first dose of hepatitis B vaccine within 24 hours of birth. Results will have importance as access to treatment for chronic HBV infection is expanded.

Prevalence and risk factors of urinary incontinence in Chinese women: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ge, Jing; Yang, Peng; Zhang, Yi; Li, Xinyu; Wang, Quanyi; Lu, Yongxian

2015-03-01

To estimate the current prevalence rate of urinary incontinence (UI) and to identify risk factors in Chinese women, we conducted a population-based survey in 3058 women in Beijing, China, in 2009. The prevalence rate of UI was estimated to be 22.1%, with stress UI (12.9%) being more prevalent than urgency UI (1.7%) and mixed UI (7.5%). The prevalence rates of UI, urgency UI, and mixed UI increased with age, with the highest recorded in participants aged ≥70 years. However, stress UI was most commonly seen in participants aged 50 to 69 years. Risk factors for UI included aging, lower education background, older age of menarche, menstrual disorder, pregnancy history, episiotomy, chronic pelvic pain, gynecological disease, other chronic diseases, constipation, fecal incontinence, lower daily water intake, and frequency of high protein intake. UI is a common disorder in Chinese women, and many risk factors are able to affect the development of UI. © 2011 APJPH.

Estimation of unemployment rates using small area estimation model by combining time series and cross-sectional data

Science.gov (United States)

Muchlisoh, Siti; Kurnia, Anang; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mangku, I. Wayan

2016-02-01

Labor force surveys conducted over time by the rotating panel design have been carried out in many countries, including Indonesia. Labor force survey in Indonesia is regularly conducted by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik-BPS) and has been known as the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas). The main purpose of Sakernas is to obtain information about unemployment rates and its changes over time. Sakernas is a quarterly survey. The quarterly survey is designed only for estimating the parameters at the provincial level. The quarterly unemployment rate published by BPS (official statistics) is calculated based on only cross-sectional methods, despite the fact that the data is collected under rotating panel design. The study purpose to estimate a quarterly unemployment rate at the district level used small area estimation (SAE) model by combining time series and cross-sectional data. The study focused on the application and comparison between the Rao-Yu model and dynamic model in context estimating the unemployment rate based on a rotating panel survey. The goodness of fit of both models was almost similar. Both models produced an almost similar estimation and better than direct estimation, but the dynamic model was more capable than the Rao-Yu model to capture a heterogeneity across area, although it was reduced over time.

Distributions of component failure rates, estimated from LER data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1985-01-01

Past analyses of Licensee Event Report (LER) data have noted that component failure rates vary from plant to plant, and have estimated the distributions by two-parameter γ distributions. In this study, a more complicated distributional form is considered, a mixture of γs. This could arise if the plants' failure rates cluster into distinct groups. The method was applied to selected published LER data for diesel generators, pumps, valves, and instrumentation and control assemblies. The improved fits from using a mixture rather than a single γ distribution were minimal, and not statistically significant. There seem to be two possibilities: either explanatory variables affect the failure rates only in a gradual way, not a qualitative way; or, for estimating individual component failure rates, the published LER data have been analyzed to the limit of resolution

Estimation of uncertainty in tracer gas measurement of air change rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Iizuka, Atsushi; Okuizumi, Yumiko; Yanagisawa, Yukio

2010-12-01

Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of air change rate can be avoided. The proposed estimation method will be useful in practical ventilation measurements.

Accidental hypothermia in Poland – estimation of prevalence, diagnostic methods and treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosiński, Sylweriusz; Darocha, Tomasz; Gałązkowski, Robert; Drwiła, Rafał

2015-02-06

The incidence of hypothermia is difficult to evaluate, and the data concerning the morbidity and mortality rates do not seem to fully represent the problem. The aim of the study was to estimate the actual prevalence of accidental hypothermia in Poland, as well as the methods of diagnosis and management procedures used in emergency rooms (ERs). A specially designed questionnaire, consisting of 14 questions, was mailed to all the 223 emergency rooms (ER) in Poland. The questions concerned the incidence, methods of diagnosis and risk factors, as well as the rewarming methods used and available measurement instruments. The analysis involved data from 42 ERs providing emergency healthcare for the population of 5,305,000. The prevalence of accidental hypothermia may have been 5.05 cases per 100.000 residents per year. Among the 268 cases listed 25% were diagnosed with codes T68, T69 or X31, and in 75% hypothermia was neither included nor assigned a code in the final diagnosis. The most frequent cause of hypothermia was exposure to cold air alongside ethanol abuse (68%). Peripheral temperature was measured in 57%, core temperature measurement was taken in 29% of the patients. Peripheral temperature was measured most often at the axilla, while core temperature measurement was predominantly taken rectally. Mild hypothermia was diagnosed in 75.5% of the patients, moderate (32-28°C) in 16.5%, while severe hypothermia (less than 28°C) in 8% of the cases. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation was carried out in 7.5% of the patients. The treatment involved mainly warmed intravenous fluids (83.5%) and active external rewarming measures (70%). In no case was extracorporeal rewarming put to use. The actual incidence of accidental hypothermia in Polish emergency departments may exceed up to four times the official data. Core temperature is taken only in one third of the patients, the treatment of hypothermic patients is rarely conducted in intensive care wards and extracorporeal rewarming

Distribution of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values in patients receiving contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimoji, Keigo; Aoki, Shigeki; Nakanishi, Atsushi

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to elucidate the distribution of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values in patients who underwent gadolinium-based contrast agent (GBCA)-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at different types of hospitals. We retrospectively studied 2,550 patients who underwent MRI at five institutions. We recorded the date and value of each patient's eGFR test. The distribution of eGFR values was compared with that in the general Japanese population. A total of 84.3% of patients had their eGFRs evaluated before GBCA-enhanced MRI. Of these, 84.7% were evaluated within 3 months before the GBCA-enhanced MRI, and 1.3% were evaluated on the day of the GBCA-enhanced MRI. A total of 87.2% of patients tested had an eGFR of ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 ; 12.8% had an eGFR of 2 , and no patients had an eGFR of 2 . The rate of renal function evaluation differed among hospitals. The prevalence of low eGFR values was greater in Juntendo Tokyo Koto Geriatric Medical Center than in the other hospitals, and the prevalence of low eGFR values was greater in patients who underwent GBCA-enhanced MRI than in the general Japanese population. (author)

Updated Magmatic Flux Rate Estimates for the Hawaii Plume

Science.gov (United States)

Wessel, P.

2013-12-01

Several studies have estimated the magmatic flux rate along the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain using a variety of methods and arriving at different results. These flux rate estimates have weaknesses because of incomplete data sets and different modeling assumptions, especially for the youngest portion of the chain (little or no quantification of error estimates for the inferred melt flux, making an assessment problematic. Here we re-evaluate the melt flux for the Hawaii plume with the latest gridded data sets (SRTM30+ and FAA 21.1) using several methods, including the optimal robust separator (ORS) and directional median filtering techniques (DiM). We also compute realistic confidence limits on the results. In particular, the DiM technique was specifically developed to aid in the estimation of surface loads that are superimposed on wider bathymetric swells and it provides error estimates on the optimal residuals. Confidence bounds are assigned separately for the estimated surface load (obtained from the ORS regional/residual separation techniques) and the inferred subsurface volume (from gravity-constrained isostasy and plate flexure optimizations). These new and robust estimates will allow us to assess which secondary features in the resulting melt flux curve are significant and should be incorporated when correlating melt flux variations with other geophysical and geochemical observations.

Prevalence of renal uric acid stones in the adult.

Science.gov (United States)

Trinchieri, Alberto; Montanari, Emanuele

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to estimate uric acid renal stone prevalence rates of adults in different countries of the world. PubMed was searched for papers dealing with "urinary calculi and prevalence or composition" for the period from January 1996 to June 2016. Alternative searches were made to collect further information on specific topics. The prevalence rate of uric acid stones was computed by the general renal stone prevalence rate and the frequency of uric acid stones in each country. After the initial search, 2180 papers were extracted. Out of them, 79 papers were selected after the reading of the titles and of the abstracts. For ten countries, papers relating to both the renal stone prevalence in the general population and the frequency of uric stones were available. Additional search produced 13 papers that completed information on 11 more countries in 5 continents. Estimated prevalence rate of uric acid stones was >0.75% in Thailand, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, South Africa (white population), United States and Australia; ranged 0.50-0.75% in Turkey, Israel, Italy, India (Southern), Spain, Taiwan, Germany, Brazil; and uric acid stone formation. A hot and dry climate increases fluid losses reducing urinary volume and urinary pH. A diet rich in meat protein causes low urinary pH and increased uric acid excretion. On the other hand, uric acid stone formation is frequently associated with obesity, metabolic syndrome and diabetes type 2 that are linked to dietary energy excess mainly from carbohydrate and saturated fat and also present with low urine pH values. An epidemic of uric acid stone formation could be if current nutritional trends will be maintained both in developed countries and in developing countries and the areas of greater climatic risk for the formation of uric acid stones will enlarge as result of the "global warming".

Validity of estimated prevalence of decreased kidney function and renal replacement therapy from primary care electronic health records compared with national survey and registry data in the United Kingdom.

Science.gov (United States)

Iwagami, Masao; Tomlinson, Laurie A; Mansfield, Kathryn E; Casula, Anna; Caskey, Fergus J; Aitken, Grant; Fraser, Simon D S; Roderick, Paul J; Nitsch, Dorothea

2017-04-01

Anonymous primary care records are an important resource for observational studies. However, their external validity is unknown in identifying the prevalence of decreased kidney function and renal replacement therapy (RRT). We thus compared the prevalence of decreased kidney function and RRT in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) with a nationally representative survey and national registry. Among all people ≥25 years of age registered in the CPRD for ≥1 year on 31 March 2014, we identified patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) primary care data have good external validity for the prevalence of decreased kidney function and RRT. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.

Incidence and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia: An overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Alotaibi, Abdulellah; Perry, Lin; Gholizadeh, Leila; Al-Ganmi, Ali

2017-12-01

This study aimed to report on the trends in incidence and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia over the last 25 years (1990-2015). A descriptive review. A systematic search was conducted for English-language, peer reviewed publications of any research design via Medline, EBSCO, PubMed and Scopus from 1990 to 2015. Of 106 articles retrieved, after removal of duplicates and quality appraisal, 8 studies were included in the review and synthesised based on study characteristics, design and findings. Studies originated from Saudi Arabia and applied a variety of research designs and tools to diagnosis diabetes. Of the 8 included studies; three reported type 1 diabetes and five on type 2 diabetes. Overall, findings indicated that the incidence and prevalence rate of diabetes is rising particularly among females, older children/adolescent and in urban areas. Further development are required to assess the health intervention, polices, guidelines, self-management programs in Saudi Arabia. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prevalence Estimation and Validation of New Instruments in Psychiatric Research: An Application of Latent Class Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Pence, Brian Wells; Miller, William C.; Gaynes, Bradley N.

2009-01-01

Prevalence and validation studies rely on imperfect reference standard (RS) diagnostic instruments that can bias prevalence and test characteristic estimates. The authors illustrate 2 methods to account for RS misclassification. Latent class analysis (LCA) combines information from multiple imperfect measures of an unmeasurable latent condition to…

Distributions of component failure rates estimated from LER data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1985-01-01

Past analyses of Licensee Event Report (LER) data have noted that component failure rates vary from plant to plant, and have estimated the distributions by two-parameter gamma distributions. In this study, a more complicated distributional form is considered, a mixture of gammas. This could arise if the plants' failure rates cluster into distinct groups. The method was applied to selected published LER data for diesel generators, pumps, valves, and instrumentation and control assemblies. The improved fits from using a mixture rather than a single gamma distribution were minimal, and not statistically significant. There seem to be two possibilities: either explanatory variables affect the failure rates only in a gradual way, not a qualitative way; or, for estimating individual component failure rates, the published LER data have been analyzed to the limit of resolution. 9 refs

Maremar, prevalence of chronic kidney disease, how to avoid over-diagnosis and under-diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

De Broe, Marc E; Gharbi, Mohammed Benghanem; Elseviers, Monique

2016-04-01

Chronic kidney disease is considered as a major public health problem. Recent studies mention a prevalence rate between 8%-12%. Several editorials, comments, short reviews described the weaknesses (lack of confirmation of proteinuria, and of chronicity of decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate) of a substantial number of studies and the irrational of using a single arbitrary set point, i.e. diagnosis of chronic kidney disease whenever the estimated glomerular filtration rate is less than 60mL/min/1.73m(2). Maremar (Maladies rénales chroniques au Maroc) is a prevalence study of chronic kidney disease, hypertension, diabetes and obesity in a randomized, representative, high response rate (85%), sample of the adult population of Morocco, strictly applying the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. Compared to the vast majority of the available studies, Maremar has a low prevalence of chronic kidney disease (2.9% adjusted to the actual adult population of Morocco). The population pyramid, and particularly the confirmation of proteinuria and "chronicity" of the decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate are the main reasons for this low prevalence of chronic kidney disease. The choice of arbitrary single threshold of estimated glomerular filtration rate for classifying stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease inevitably leads to "over-diagnosis" (false positives) of the disease in the elderly, particularly those without proteinuria, hematuria or hypertension, and to "under-diagnosed" (false negatives) in younger individuals with an estimated glomerular filtration rate above 60mL/min/1.73m(2) and below the 3rd percentile of their age/gender category. There is an urgent need for quality studies using in a correct way the recent KDIGO guidelines when investigating the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, in order to avoid a 50 to 100% overestimation of a disease state with potential dramatic consequences. The combination of the general population

Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

Science.gov (United States)

Dal Maso, L.; Guzzinati, S.; Buzzoni, C.; Capocaccia, R.; Serraino, D.; Caldarella, A.; Dei Tos, A. P.; Falcini, F.; Autelitano, M.; Masanotti, G.; Ferretti, S.; Tisano, F.; Tirelli, U.; Crocetti, E.; De Angelis, R.; Virdone, S.; Zucchetto, A.; Gigli, A.; Francisci, S.; Baili, P.; Gatta, G.; Castaing, M.; Zanetti, R.; Contiero, P.; Bidoli, E.; Vercelli, M.; Michiara, M.; Federico, M.; Senatore, G.; Pannozzo, F.; Vicentini, M.; Bulatko, A.; Pirino, D. R.; Gentilini, M.; Fusco, M.; Giacomin, A.; Fanetti, A. C.; Cusimano, R.

2014-01-01

Background Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. Patients and methods Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. Results The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged cancers to cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained 25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. Conclusions A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. PMID:25149707

Genetic analysis of rare disorders: Bayesian estimation of twin concordance rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Hjelmborg, J.

2012-01-01

Twin concordance rates provide insight into the possibility of a genetic background for a disease. These concordance rates are usually estimated within a frequentistic framework. Here we take a Bayesian approach. For rare diseases, estimation methods based on asymptotic theory cannot be applied due

Homicide Rates of Transgender Individuals in the United States: 2010-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinno, Alexis

2017-09-01

To estimate homicide rates of transgender US residents and relative risks (RRs) of homicide with respect to cisgender comparators intersected with age, gender, and race/ethnicity. I estimated homicide rates for transgender residents and transfeminine, Black, Latin@, and young (aged 15-34 years) subpopulations during the period 2010 to 2014 using Transgender Day of Remembrance and National Coalition of Anti-Violence Programs transgender homicide data. I used estimated transgender prevalences to estimate RRs using cisgender comparators. I performed a sensitivity analysis to situate all results within assumptions about underreporting of transgender homicides and assumptions about the prevalence of transgender residents. The overall homicide rate of transgender individuals was likely to be less than that of cisgender individuals, with 8 of 12 RR estimates below 1.0. However, the homicide rates of young transfeminine Black and Latina residents were almost certainly higher than were those of cisfeminine comparators, with all RR estimates above 1.0 for Blacks and all above 1.0 for Latinas. Antiviolence public health programs should identify young and Black or Latina transfeminine women as an especially vulnerable population.

Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brabec, M.; Jilek, K.

2004-01-01

A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements

Estimation of the burden of chronic and allergic pulmonary aspergillosis in India.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ritesh Agarwal

Full Text Available It would be of considerable interest to clinicians if the burden of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA and allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA in India were known. Herein, we estimate the burden of CPA following pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB, and ABPA (and severe asthma with fungal sensitization [SAFS] complicating asthma.We used the population estimates for India from the 2011 census data. The burden of asthma was estimated using three different methods (Global Initiative against Asthma [GINA] report statement, World Health Survey [WHS] estimates, Indian study on the epidemiology of asthma and chronic bronchitis [INSEARCH]. Global and India-specific figures were used for calculating the prevalence of ABPA and SAFS. The World Health Organization estimates were used for calculating PTB rates while the frequency of CPA was assessed from a previously published scoping review. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the burden in various scenarios.The total Indian population in 2011 was 1.2 billion. The asthma prevalence in adults was estimated at about 27.6 (range, 17-30 million. The burden of ABPA ranged from 0.12-6.09 million with different assumptions (best estimate, 1.38 [range, 0.86-1.52] million. The prevalence of SAFS was approximated at about 0.52-1.21 million (best estimate, 0.96 [range, 0.6-1.06] million. The incident TB cases were about 2.1 million while the annual incidence of CPA varied 27,000-0.17 million cases, with different estimates. If the mortality of CPA is estimated as 15% annually, the 5-year prevalence of CPA was placed at 290,147 cases with 5-year prevalence rate being 24 per 100,000.There is a significant burden of ABPA, SAFS and CPA in India. Prospective community-based studies are required to accurately determine the prevalence of these disorders.

Estimation of Stormwater Interception Rate for various LID Facilities

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S.; Lee, O.; Choi, J.

2017-12-01

In this study, the stormwater interception rate is proposed to apply in the design of LID facilities. For this purpose, EPA-SWMM is built with some areas of Noksan National Industrial Complex where long-term observed stormwater data were monitored and stormwater interception rates for various design capacities of various LID facilities are estimated. While the sensitivity of stormwater interception rate according to design specifications of bio-retention and infiltration trench facilities is not large, the sensitivity of stormwater interception rate according to local rainfall characteristics is relatively big. As a result of comparing the present rainfall interception rate estimation method which is officially operated in Korea with the one proposed in this study, it will be presented that the present method is highly likely to overestimate the performance of the bio-retention and infiltration trench facilities. Finally, a new stormwater interception rate formulas for the bio-retention and infiltration trench LID facilities will be proposed. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (2016000200002) from Public Welfare Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Environment of Korean government.

Automatic estimation of pressure-dependent rate coefficients.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Joshua W; Goldsmith, C Franklin; Green, William H

2012-01-21

A general framework is presented for accurately and efficiently estimating the phenomenological pressure-dependent rate coefficients for reaction networks of arbitrary size and complexity using only high-pressure-limit information. Two aspects of this framework are discussed in detail. First, two methods of estimating the density of states of the species in the network are presented, including a new method based on characteristic functional group frequencies. Second, three methods of simplifying the full master equation model of the network to a single set of phenomenological rates are discussed, including a new method based on the reservoir state and pseudo-steady state approximations. Both sets of methods are evaluated in the context of the chemically-activated reaction of acetyl with oxygen. All three simplifications of the master equation are usually accurate, but each fails in certain situations, which are discussed. The new methods usually provide good accuracy at a computational cost appropriate for automated reaction mechanism generation.

Automatic estimation of pressure-dependent rate coefficients

KAUST Repository

Allen, Joshua W.; Goldsmith, C. Franklin; Green, William H.

2012-01-01

A general framework is presented for accurately and efficiently estimating the phenomenological pressure-dependent rate coefficients for reaction networks of arbitrary size and complexity using only high-pressure-limit information. Two aspects of this framework are discussed in detail. First, two methods of estimating the density of states of the species in the network are presented, including a new method based on characteristic functional group frequencies. Second, three methods of simplifying the full master equation model of the network to a single set of phenomenological rates are discussed, including a new method based on the reservoir state and pseudo-steady state approximations. Both sets of methods are evaluated in the context of the chemically-activated reaction of acetyl with oxygen. All three simplifications of the master equation are usually accurate, but each fails in certain situations, which are discussed. The new methods usually provide good accuracy at a computational cost appropriate for automated reaction mechanism generation. This journal is © the Owner Societies.

Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik

2011-01-01

I demonstrate that econometric estimations of nominal interest rate rules may tell little, if anything, about an economy's determinacy properties. In particular, correct inference about the interest-rate response to inflation provides no information about determinacy. Instead, it could reveal...

Prevalence, Treatment, and Control Rates of Conventional and Ambulatory Hypertension Across 10 Populations in 3 Continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Melgarejo, Jesus D; Maestre, Gladys E; Thijs, Lutgarde; Asayama, Kei; Boggia, José; Casiglia, Edoardo; Hansen, Tine W; Imai, Yutaka; Jacobs, Lotte; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Li, Yan; Malyutina, Sofia; Nikitin, Yuri; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Wang, Ji-Guang; Staessen, Jan A

2017-07-01

Hypertension is a major global health problem, but prevalence rates vary widely among regions. To determine prevalence, treatment, and control rates of hypertension, we measured conventional blood pressure (BP) and 24-hour ambulatory BP in 6546 subjects, aged 40 to 79 years, recruited from 10 community-dwelling cohorts on 3 continents. We determined how between-cohort differences in risk factors and socioeconomic factors influence hypertension rates. The overall prevalence was 49.3% (range between cohorts, 40.0%-86.8%) for conventional hypertension (conventional BP ≥140/90 mm Hg) and 48.7% (35.2%-66.5%) for ambulatory hypertension (ambulatory BP ≥130/80 mm Hg). Treatment and control rates for conventional hypertension were 48.0% (33.5%-74.1%) and 38.6% (10.1%-55.3%) respectively. The corresponding rates for ambulatory hypertension were 48.6% (30.5%-71.9%) and 45.6% (18.6%-64.2%). Among 1677 untreated subjects with conventional hypertension, 35.7% had white coat hypertension (23.5%-56.2%). Masked hypertension (conventional BP hypertension rates. Higher social and economic development, measured by the Human Development Index, was associated with lower rates of conventional and ambulatory hypertension. In conclusion, high rates of hypertension in all cohorts examined demonstrate the need for improvements in prevention, treatment, and control. Strategies for the management of hypertension should continue to not only focus on preventable and modifiable risk factors but also consider societal issues. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Are cannabis prevalence estimates comparable across countries and regions? A cross-cultural validation using search engine query data.

Science.gov (United States)

Steppan, Martin; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Siciliano, Valeria

2013-01-01

Prevalence estimation of cannabis use is usually based on self-report data. Although there is evidence on the reliability of this data source, its cross-cultural validity is still a major concern. External objective criteria are needed for this purpose. In this study, cannabis-related search engine query data are used as an external criterion. Data on cannabis use were taken from the 2007 European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD). Provincial data came from three Italian nation-wide studies using the same methodology (2006-2008; ESPAD-Italia). Information on cannabis-related search engine query data was based on Google search volume indices (GSI). (1) Reliability analysis was conducted for GSI. (2) Latent measurement models of "true" cannabis prevalence were tested using perceived availability, web-based cannabis searches and self-reported prevalence as indicators. (3) Structure models were set up to test the influences of response tendencies and geographical position (latitude, longitude). In order to test the stability of the models, analyses were conducted on country level (Europe, US) and on provincial level in Italy. Cannabis-related GSI were found to be highly reliable and constant over time. The overall measurement model was highly significant in both data sets. On country level, no significant effects of response bias indicators and geographical position on perceived availability, web-based cannabis searches and self-reported prevalence were found. On provincial level, latitude had a significant positive effect on availability indicating that perceived availability of cannabis in northern Italy was higher than expected from the other indicators. Although GSI showed weaker associations with cannabis use than perceived availability, the findings underline the external validity and usefulness of search engine query data as external criteria. The findings suggest an acceptable relative comparability of national (provincial) prevalence

Rating curve estimation of nutrient loads in Iowa rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Stenback, G.A.; Crumpton, W.G.; Schilling, K.E.; Helmers, M.J.

2011-01-01

Accurate estimation of nutrient loads in rivers and streams is critical for many applications including determination of sources of nutrient loads in watersheds, evaluating long-term trends in loads, and estimating loading to downstream waterbodies. Since in many cases nutrient concentrations are measured on a weekly or monthly frequency, there is a need to estimate concentration and loads during periods when no data is available. The objectives of this study were to: (i) document the performance of a multiple regression model to predict loads of nitrate and total phosphorus (TP) in Iowa rivers and streams; (ii) determine whether there is any systematic bias in the load prediction estimates for nitrate and TP; and (iii) evaluate streamflow and concentration factors that could affect the load prediction efficiency. A commonly cited rating curve regression is utilized to estimate riverine nitrate and TP loads for rivers in Iowa with watershed areas ranging from 17.4 to over 34,600km2. Forty-nine nitrate and 44 TP datasets each comprising 5-22years of approximately weekly to monthly concentrations were examined. Three nitrate data sets had sample collection frequencies averaging about three samples per week. The accuracy and precision of annual and long term riverine load prediction was assessed by direct comparison of rating curve load predictions with observed daily loads. Significant positive bias of annual and long term nitrate loads was detected. Long term rating curve nitrate load predictions exceeded observed loads by 25% or more at 33% of the 49 measurement sites. No bias was found for TP load prediction although 15% of the 44 cases either underestimated or overestimate observed long-term loads by more than 25%. The rating curve was found to poorly characterize nitrate and phosphorus variation in some rivers. ?? 2010 .

Estimating Ads’ Click through Rate with Recurrent Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Qiao-Hong

2016-01-01

Full Text Available With the development of the Internet, online advertising spreads across every corner of the world, the ads' click through rate (CTR estimation is an important method to improve the online advertising revenue. Compared with the linear model, the nonlinear models can study much more complex relationships between a large number of nonlinear characteristics, so as to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the ads’ CTR. The recurrent neural network (RNN based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM is an improved model of the feedback neural network with ring structure. The model overcomes the problem of the gradient of the general RNN. Experiments show that the RNN based on LSTM exceeds the linear models, and it can effectively improve the estimation effect of the ads’ click through rate.

Simple method for the estimation of glomerular filtration rate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Groth, T [Group for Biomedical Informatics, Uppsala Univ. Data Center, Uppsala (Sweden); Tengstroem, B [District General Hospital, Skoevde (Sweden)

1977-02-01

A simple method is presented for indirect estimation of the glomerular filtration rate from two venous blood samples, drawn after a single injection of a small dose of (/sup 125/I)sodium iothalamate (10 ..mu..Ci). The method does not require exact dosage, as the first sample, taken after a few minutes (t=5 min) after injection, is used to normilize the value of the second sample, which should be taken in between 2 to 4 h after injection. The glomerular filtration rate, as measured by standard insulin clearance, may then be predicted from the logarithm of the normalized value and linear regression formulas with a standard error of estimate of the order of 1 to 2 ml/min/1.73 m/sup 2/. The slope-intercept method for direct estimation of glomerular filtration rate is also evaluated and found to significantly underestimate standard insulin clearance. The normalized 'single-point' method is concluded to be superior to the slope-intercept method and more sophisticated methods using curve fitting technique, with regard to predictive force and clinical applicability.

Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using a bounded-data-uncertainty approach

KAUST Repository

Ballal, Tarig

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce P observations. These observations are exploited to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC operates at a rate that is P times less. To avoid loss of fidelity, the interpulse interval, given in units of sampling periods of the desired rate, is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this situation and to achieve good performance without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. This estimator is shown to be related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. The performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme was tested in conjunction with the new estimator. It is shown that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in most cases; while in the high SNR regime, it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. © 2014 IEEE.

Disordered Gambling Prevalence: Methodological Innovations in a General Danish Population Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Glenn W; Jessen, Lasse J; Lau, Morten I; Ross, Don

2018-03-01

We study Danish adult gambling behavior with an emphasis on discovering patterns relevant to public health forecasting and economic welfare assessment of policy. Methodological innovations include measurement of formative in addition to reflective constructs, estimation of prospective risk for developing gambling disorder rather than risk of being falsely negatively diagnosed, analysis with attention to sample weights and correction for sample selection bias, estimation of the impact of trigger questions on prevalence estimates and sample characteristics, and distinguishing between total and marginal effects of risk-indicating factors. The most significant novelty in our design is that nobody was excluded on the basis of their response to a 'trigger' or 'gateway' question about previous gambling history. Our sample consists of 8405 adult Danes. We administered the Focal Adult Gambling Screen to all subjects and estimate prospective risk for disordered gambling. We find that 87.6% of the population is indicated for no detectable risk, 5.4% is indicated for early risk, 1.7% is indicated for intermediate risk, 2.6% is indicated for advanced risk, and 2.6% is indicated for disordered gambling. Correcting for sample weights and controlling for sample selection has a significant effect on prevalence rates. Although these estimates of the 'at risk' fraction of the population are significantly higher than conventionally reported, we infer a significant decrease in overall prevalence rates of detectable risk with these corrections, since gambling behavior is positively correlated with the decision to participate in gambling surveys. We also find that imposing a threshold gambling history leads to underestimation of the prevalence of gambling problems.

High mitochondrial mutation rates estimated from deep-rooting Costa Rican pedigrees

Science.gov (United States)

Madrigal, Lorena; Melendez-Obando, Mauricio; Villegas-Palma, Ramon; Barrantes, Ramiro; Raventos, Henrieta; Pereira, Reynaldo; Luiselli, Donata; Pettener, Davide; Barbujani, Guido

2012-01-01

Estimates of mutation rates for the noncoding hypervariable Region I (HVR-I) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) vary widely, depending on whether they are inferred from phylogenies (assuming that molecular evolution is clock-like) or directly from pedigrees. All pedigree-based studies so far were conducted on populations of European origin. In this paper we analyzed 19 deep-rooting pedigrees in a population of mixed origin in Costa Rica. We calculated two estimates of the HVR-I mutation rate, one considering all apparent mutations, and one disregarding changes at sites known to be mutational hot spots and eliminating genealogy branches which might be suspected to include errors, or unrecognized adoptions along the female lines. At the end of this procedure, we still observed a mutation rate equal to 1.24 × 10−6, per site per year, i.e., at least three-fold as high as estimates derived from phylogenies. Our results confirm that mutation rates observed in pedigrees are much higher than estimated assuming a neutral model of long-term HVRI evolution. We argue that, until the cause of these discrepancies will be fully understood, both lower estimates (i.e., those derived from phylogenetic comparisons) and higher, direct estimates such as those obtained in this study, should be considered when modeling evolutionary and demographic processes. PMID:22460349

Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helen C Johnson

Full Text Available Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. However, the complex natural history of HPV makes this difficult. We infer the viral transmissibility, rate of waning natural immunity and rates of progression and clearance of infection of 13 high-risk and 2 non-oncogenic HPV types, making use of a number of rich datasets from Sweden. Estimates of viral transmissibility, clearance of initial infection and waning immunity were derived in a Bayesian framework by fitting a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS transmission model to age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from both a cross-sectional study and a randomised controlled trial (RCT of primary HPV screening. The models fitted well, but over-estimated the prevalence of four high-risk types with respect to the data. Three of these types (HPV-33, -35 and -58 are among the most closely related phylogenetically to the most prevalent HPV-16. The fourth (HPV-45 is the most closely related to HPV-18; the second most prevalent type. We suggest that this may be an indicator of cross-immunity. Rates of progression and clearance of clinical lesions were additionally estimated from longitudinal data gathered as part of the same RCT. Our estimates of progression and clearance rates are consistent with the findings of survival analysis studies and we extend the literature by estimating progression and clearance rates for non-16 and non-18 high-risk types. We anticipate that such type-specific estimates will be useful in the parameterisation of further models and in developing our understanding of HPV natural history.

On Improving Convergence Rates for Nonnegative Kernel Density Estimators

OpenAIRE

Terrell, George R.; Scott, David W.

1980-01-01

To improve the rate of decrease of integrated mean square error for nonparametric kernel density estimators beyond $0(n^{-\\frac{4}{5}}),$ we must relax the constraint that the density estimate be a bonafide density function, that is, be nonnegative and integrate to one. All current methods for kernel (and orthogonal series) estimators relax the nonnegativity constraint. In this paper we show how to achieve similar improvement by relaxing the integral constraint only. This is important in appl...

Malnutrition in childhood cancer patients: a review on its prevalence and possible causes.

Science.gov (United States)

Brinksma, Aeltsje; Huizinga, Gea; Sulkers, Esther; Kamps, Willem; Roodbol, Petrie; Tissing, Wim

2012-08-01

To perform a systematic literature review for critical evaluation of prevalence and factors contributing to malnutrition in childhood cancer. A systematic search resulting in 46 suitable articles. Due to lack of uniform criteria and adequate studies, the prevalence rates of malnutrition can only be estimated. Based on strengths and weaknesses of included references, prevalence rates are estimated to be 0-10% for leukemia, 20-50% for neuroblastoma, and 0-30% for other malignancies. Whether energy deficiency or inflammation contributed to malnutrition could not be confirmed because the occurrence of energy deficit (low energy intake, increased metabolic rate) or inflammation (related to cachexia) was not convincing. Also, a relationship between these factors and malnutrition was not studied. Longitudinal studies are needed to determine which children are at risk of malnutrition, and to investigate the impact of energy deficiency and inflammation on the nutritional status and body composition of childhood cancer patients. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

New methods for estimating follow-up rates in cohort studies

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Xiaonan Xue

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The follow-up rate, a standard index of the completeness of follow-up, is important for assessing the validity of a cohort study. A common method for estimating the follow-up rate, the “Percentage Method”, defined as the fraction of all enrollees who developed the event of interest or had complete follow-up, can severely underestimate the degree of follow-up. Alternatively, the median follow-up time does not indicate the completeness of follow-up, and the reverse Kaplan-Meier based method and Clark’s Completeness Index (CCI also have limitations. Methods We propose a new definition for the follow-up rate, the Person-Time Follow-up Rate (PTFR, which is the observed person-time divided by total person-time assuming no dropouts. The PTFR cannot be calculated directly since the event times for dropouts are not observed. Therefore, two estimation methods are proposed: a formal person-time method (FPT in which the expected total follow-up time is calculated using the event rate estimated from the observed data, and a simplified person-time method (SPT that avoids estimation of the event rate by assigning full follow-up time to all events. Simulations were conducted to measure the accuracy of each method, and each method was applied to a prostate cancer recurrence study dataset. Results Simulation results showed that the FPT has the highest accuracy overall. In most situations, the computationally simpler SPT and CCI methods are only slightly biased. When applied to a retrospective cohort study of cancer recurrence, the FPT, CCI and SPT showed substantially greater 5-year follow-up than the Percentage Method (92%, 92% and 93% vs 68%. Conclusions The Person-time methods correct a systematic error in the standard Percentage Method for calculating follow-up rates. The easy to use SPT and CCI methods can be used in tandem to obtain an accurate and tight interval for PTFR. However, the FPT is recommended when event rates and

10-year prevalence of contact allergy in the general population in Denmark estimated through the CE-DUR method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Uter, Wolfgang; Schnuch, Axel

2007-01-01

case') assumptions were based on patch test reading data in combination with an estimate of the number of persons eligible for patch testing each year based on sales data of the 'standard series'. The estimated 10-year prevalence of contact allergy ranged between 7.3% and 12.9% for adult Danes older...

The prevalence of pain in nursing home residents with dementia measured using an observational pain scale.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zwakhalen, S.M.G.; Koopmans, R.T.C.M.; Geels, P.J.; Berger, M.P.; Hamers, J.P.H.

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Studies on pain and pain prevalence in older people with dementia are limited compared to those on cognitively intact older people. Pain prevalence rates in older people with dementia are estimated to be between 28% and 83%. AIMS: This study aimed to explore pain prevalence in nursing

Estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate in Older People

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Sabrina Garasto

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We aimed at reviewing age-related changes in kidney structure and function, methods for estimating kidney function, and impact of reduced kidney function on geriatric outcomes, as well as the reliability and applicability of equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR in older patients. CKD is associated with different comorbidities and adverse outcomes such as disability and premature death in older populations. Creatinine clearance and other methods for estimating kidney function are not easy to apply in older subjects. Thus, an accurate and reliable method for calculating eGFR would be highly desirable for early detection and management of CKD in this vulnerable population. Equations based on serum creatinine, age, race, and gender have been widely used. However, these equations have their own limitations, and no equation seems better than the other ones in older people. New equations specifically developed for use in older populations, especially those based on serum cystatin C, hold promises. However, further studies are needed to definitely accept them as the reference method to estimate kidney function in older patients in the clinical setting.

Using 210Pb measurements to estimate sedimentation rates on river floodplains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, P.; Walling, D.E.

2012-01-01

Growing interest in the dynamics of floodplain evolution and the important role of overbank sedimentation on river floodplains as a sediment sink has focused attention on the need to document contemporary and recent rates of overbank sedimentation. The potential for using the fallout radionuclides 137 Cs and excess 210 Pb to estimate medium-term (10–10 2 years) sedimentation rates on river floodplains has attracted increasing attention. Most studies that have successfully used fallout radionuclides for this purpose have focused on the use of 137 Cs. However, the use of excess 210 Pb potentially offers a number of advantages over 137 Cs measurements. Most existing investigations that have used excess 210 Pb measurements to document sedimentation rates have, however, focused on lakes rather than floodplains and the transfer of the approach, and particularly the models used to estimate the sedimentation rate, to river floodplains involves a number of uncertainties, which require further attention. This contribution reports the results of an investigation of overbank sedimentation rates on the floodplains of several UK rivers. Sediment cores were collected from seven floodplain sites representative of different environmental conditions and located in different areas of England and Wales. Measurements of excess 210 Pb and 137 Cs were made on these cores. The 210 Pb measurements have been used to estimate sedimentation rates and the results obtained by using different models have been compared. The 137 Cs measurements have also been used to provide an essentially independent time marker for validation purposes. In using the 210 Pb measurements, particular attention was directed to the problem of obtaining reliable estimates of the supported and excess or unsupported components of the total 210 Pb activity of sediment samples. Although there was a reasonable degree of consistency between the estimates of sedimentation rate provided by the 137 Cs and excess 210 Pb

Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

2006-01-01

Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

Hemoglobin correction factors for estimating the prevalence of iron deficiency anemia in pregnant women residing at high altitudes in Bolivia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Hadary Cohen

1999-12-01

Full Text Available This study had two primary objectives: 1 to derive a method to determine hemoglobin cutoffs that could be used to better estimate the prevalence of iron deficiency anemia in pregnancy at high altitudes and 2 to estimate the prevalence of anemia in a sample of pregnant women residing in two cities in Bolivia, La Paz (3 600 meters and El Alto (4 000 meters. We derived a hemoglobin-altitude curve from previously published data on the mean hemoglobin concentrations of nonanemic women of childbearing age at various altitudes. In addition, we abstracted data on hemoglobin concentration during pregnancy from medical records of women from La Paz and El Alto who had given birth at a maternity hospital in La Paz between January and June of 1996. Using our approach and two other previously published, currently used methods, we calculated and compared prevalences of iron deficiency anemia in this population using hemoglobin cutoffs determined from a hemoglobin-altitude curve corrected for pregnancy. The hemoglobin-altitude curve derived in this study provided a better fit to data for women of childbearing age than the two other models. Those models used cutoffs based on non-iron-replete populations of children or men, both of which were residing below 4 000 m, and then extrapolated to women and higher altitudes. The estimated prevalences of iron deficiency anemia in pregnancy using the hemoglobin cutoffs determined in this study were higher than those estimated by the two other approaches.

Two-component mixture cure rate model with spline estimated nonparametric components.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lu; Du, Pang; Liang, Hua

2012-09-01

In some survival analysis of medical studies, there are often long-term survivors who can be considered as permanently cured. The goals in these studies are to estimate the noncured probability of the whole population and the hazard rate of the susceptible subpopulation. When covariates are present as often happens in practice, to understand covariate effects on the noncured probability and hazard rate is of equal importance. The existing methods are limited to parametric and semiparametric models. We propose a two-component mixture cure rate model with nonparametric forms for both the cure probability and the hazard rate function. Identifiability of the model is guaranteed by an additive assumption that allows no time-covariate interactions in the logarithm of hazard rate. Estimation is carried out by an expectation-maximization algorithm on maximizing a penalized likelihood. For inferential purpose, we apply the Louis formula to obtain point-wise confidence intervals for noncured probability and hazard rate. Asymptotic convergence rates of our function estimates are established. We then evaluate the proposed method by extensive simulations. We analyze the survival data from a melanoma study and find interesting patterns for this study. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identifications in forensic science

Science.gov (United States)

Song, John; Vorburger, Theodore V.; Chu, Wei; Yen, James; Soons, Johannes A.; Ott, Daniel B.; Zhang, Nien Fan

2018-01-01

Estimating error rates for firearm evidence identification is a fundamental challenge in forensic science. This paper describes the recently developed congruent matching cells (CMC) method for image comparisons, its application to firearm evidence identification, and its usage and initial tests for error rate estimation. The CMC method divides compared topography images into correlation cells. Four identification parameters are defined for quantifying both the topography similarity of the correlated cell pairs and the pattern congruency of the registered cell locations. A declared match requires a significant number of CMCs, i.e., cell pairs that meet all similarity and congruency requirements. Initial testing on breech face impressions of a set of 40 cartridge cases fired with consecutively manufactured pistol slides showed wide separation between the distributions of CMC numbers observed for known matching and known non-matching image pairs. Another test on 95 cartridge cases from a different set of slides manufactured by the same process also yielded widely separated distributions. The test results were used to develop two statistical models for the probability mass function of CMC correlation scores. The models were applied to develop a framework for estimating cumulative false positive and false negative error rates and individual error rates of declared matches and non-matches for this population of breech face impressions. The prospect for applying the models to large populations and realistic case work is also discussed. The CMC method can provide a statistical foundation for estimating error rates in firearm evidence identifications, thus emulating methods used for forensic identification of DNA evidence. PMID:29331680

Estimating infertility prevalence in low-to-middle-income countries: an application of a current duration approach to Demographic and Health Survey data

OpenAIRE

Polis, Chelsea B.; Cox, Carie M.; Tun?alp, ?zge; McLain, Alexander C.; Thoma, Marie E.

2017-01-01

Abstract STUDY QUESTION Can infertility prevalence be estimated using a current duration (CD) approach when applied to nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected routinely in low- or middle-income countries? SUMMARY ANSWER Our analysis suggests that a CD approach applied to DHS data from Nigeria provides infertility prevalence estimates comparable to other smaller studies in the same region. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Despite associations with serious negative hea...

The reliability of grazing rate estimates from dilution experiments: Have we over-estimated rates of organic carbon consumption by microzooplankton?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. R. Dolan,

2005-01-01

Full Text Available According to a recent global analysis, microzooplankton grazing is surprisingly invariant, ranging only between 59 and 74% of phytoplankton primary production across systems differing in seasonality, trophic status, latitude, or salinity. Thus an important biological process in the world ocean, the daily consumption of recently fixed carbon, appears nearly constant. We believe this conclusion is an artefact because dilution experiments are 1 prone to providing over-estimates of grazing rates and 2 unlikely to furnish evidence of low grazing rates. In our view the overall average rate of microzooplankton grazing probably does not exceed 50% of primary production and may be even lower in oligotrophic systems.

Prevalence estimates of depression in elderly community-dwelling African Americans in Indianapolis and Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Baiyewu, Olusegun; Smith-Gamble, Valerie; Lane, Kathleen A; Gureje, Oye; Gao, Sujuan; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Unverzagt, Frederick W; Hall, Kathleen S; Hendrie, Hugh C

2007-08-01

This is a community-based longitudinal epidemiological comparative study of elderly African Americans in Indianapolis and elderly Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria. A two-stage study was designed in which community-based individuals were first screened using the Community Screening Interview for Dementia. The second stage was a full clinical assessment, which included use of the Geriatric Depression Scale, of a smaller sub-sample of individuals selected on the basis of their performance in the screening interview. Prevalence of depression was estimated using sampling weights according to the sampling stratification scheme for clinical assessment. Some 2627 individuals were evaluated at the first stage in Indianapolis and 2806 in Ibadan. All were aged 69 years and over. Of these, 451 (17.2%) underwent clinical assessment in Indianapolis, while 605 (21.6%) were assessed in Ibadan. The prevalence estimates of both mild and severe depression were similar for the two sites (p=0.1273 and p=0.7093): 12.3% (mild depression) and 2.2% (severe depression) in Indianapolis and 19.8% and 1.6% respectively in Ibadan. Some differences were identified in association with demographic characteristics; for example, Ibadan men had a significantly higher prevalence of mild depression than Indianapolis men (pYoruba (p=0.0039). Prevalence of depression was similar for elderly African Americans and Yoruba despite considerable socioeconomic and cultural differences between these populations.

Estimation of HPV prevalence in young women in Scotland; monitoring of future vaccine impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Kavanagh, Kimberley; Sinka, Katy; Cuschieri, Kate; Love, John; Potts, Alison; Pollock, Kevin G J; Cubie, Heather; Donaghy, Martin; Robertson, Chris

2013-11-05

Estimation of pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV and distribution of HPV types is fundamental to understanding the subsequent impact of HPV vaccination. We describe the type specific prevalence of HPV in females aged 20-21 in Scotland who attended or defaulted from cervical screening using three specimen types; from attenders liquid based cytology and from defaulters urine or self-taken swabs. Residual liquid based cytology samples (n = 2148), collected from women aged 20-21 attending for their first smear were genotyped for HPV. A sample (n = 709) from women who had defaulted from screening was also made available for HPV testing through the use of postal testing kits (either urine samples (n = 378) or self-taken swabs (n = 331)). Estimates of prevalence weighted by deprivation, and for the postal testing kit, also by reminder status and specimen type were calculated for each HPV type. The distribution of HPV types were compared between specimen types and the occurrence of multiple high-risk infections examined. The influence of demographic factors on high-risk HPV positivity and multiple infections was examined via logistic regression. The prevalence of any HPV in young women aged 20-21 was 32.2% for urine, 39.5% for self-taken swab, and 49.4% for LBC specimens. Infection with vaccine specific types (HPV 16, 18) or those associated with cross-protection (HPV 31, 33, 45, 51) was common. Individuals were more likely to test positive for high-risk HPV if they resided in an area of high deprivation or in a rural area. The overall distribution of HPV types did not vary between defaulters and attenders. Multiple infections occurred in 48.1% of high-risk HPV positive individuals. Excluding vaccine types the most common pairing was HPV 56 and 66. Understanding of the pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV in young women puts Scotland in a prime position to assess the early effect of vaccination as the first highly vaccinated cohorts of individuals enter the screening

State estimation for networked control systems using fixed data rates

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qing-Quan; Jin, Fang

2017-07-01

This paper investigates state estimation for linear time-invariant systems where sensors and controllers are geographically separated and connected via a bandwidth-limited and errorless communication channel with the fixed data rate. All plant states are quantised, coded and converted together into a codeword in our quantisation and coding scheme. We present necessary and sufficient conditions on the fixed data rate for observability of such systems, and further develop the data-rate theorem. It is shown in our results that there exists a quantisation and coding scheme to ensure observability of the system if the fixed data rate is larger than the lower bound given, which is less conservative than the one in the literature. Furthermore, we also examine the role that the disturbances have on the state estimation problem in the case with data-rate limitations. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Child mortality estimation: consistency of under-five mortality rate estimates using full birth histories and summary birth histories.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romesh Silva

Full Text Available Given the lack of complete vital registration data in most developing countries, for many countries it is not possible to accurately estimate under-five mortality rates from vital registration systems. Heavy reliance is often placed on direct and indirect methods for analyzing data collected from birth histories to estimate under-five mortality rates. Yet few systematic comparisons of these methods have been undertaken. This paper investigates whether analysts should use both direct and indirect estimates from full birth histories, and under what circumstances indirect estimates derived from summary birth histories should be used.Usings Demographic and Health Surveys data from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia, I quantify the differences between direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates, analyze data quality issues, note the relative effects of these issues, and test whether these issues explain the observed differences. I find that indirect estimates are generally consistent with direct estimates, after adjustment for fertility change and birth transference, but don't add substantial additional insight beyond direct estimates. However, choice of direct or indirect method was found to be important in terms of both the adjustment for data errors and the assumptions made about fertility.Although adjusted indirect estimates are generally consistent with adjusted direct estimates, some notable inconsistencies were observed for countries that had experienced either a political or economic crisis or stalled health transition in their recent past. This result suggests that when a population has experienced a smooth mortality decline or only short periods of excess mortality, both adjusted methods perform equally well. However, the observed inconsistencies identified suggest that the indirect method is particularly prone to bias resulting from violations of its strong assumptions about recent mortality

Prevalence of Mathematic Disability in Primary Schools

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Siavash Talepasand

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Objectives: One of the issues that have consistently been the concern for the health affair specialists and cure and massive social governors in health fields is the rate of disorders prevalence, diseases and the related subjects to epidemiology. Purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of mathematic disability amongst primary schools of Karaj. Methods: Totally 432 students were selected with multi-stage sampling method. Participants completed Raven test, Frostig Visual-Perception test and Wepman Auditory discrimination test, Rutter behavioral questionnaire and Iran Key-math test. In order to diagnosis mathematic disability, inter criterion was normal quotient intelligence and out criteria were to have one of visual perception, auditory and behavioral problems. The participants whose total standard scores in Iran Key-math test were one standard deviation below the mean were selected as a mathematical disability (MD. Results: The mathematic disability prevalence in primary students was estimated 0.46%. In addition, proportion of mathematic disability prevalence was not function of gender or grade. Discussion: The findings demonstrated that the prevalence of mathematic disability is much less than the previous researches. A possible explanation was that inappropriate screening co morbid disorders with the mathematic disability. The theoretical implications of findings are discussed in detail.

Clinical use of estimated glomerular filtration rate for evaluation of kidney function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Broberg, Bo; Lindhardt, Morten; Rossing, Peter

2013-01-01

is a significant predictor for cardiovascular disease and may along with classical cardiovascular risk factors add useful information to risk estimation. Several cautions need to be taken into account, e.g. rapid changes in kidney function, dialysis, high age, obesity, underweight and diverging and unanticipated......Estimating glomerular filtration rate by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease or Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formulas gives a reasonable estimate of kidney function for e.g. classification of chronic kidney disease. Additionally the estimated glomerular filtration rate...

The estimated risk for coronary heart disease and prevalence of dyslipidemia among workers of information technology industries in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shao-Chi; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Tsai, Wei-I; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Chen, Ming-Fong

2011-03-18

Individuals working in information technology (IT) industries suffer from high work stress, possibly causing adverse impacts on their health. However, studies of cardiovascular risk factors among these workers are lacking. The aims of this study were to evaluate the estimated risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and prevalence of dyslipidemia among IT workers. A total of 941 employees from 11 IT companies were enrolled and the anthropometrics and serum lipid profiles were measured. The 10-year risk for CHD was calculated based on the Framingham risk score. Compared with lipid profiles in a representative sample (n=6589), IT workers had a significantly higher prevalence of obesity, hypercholesterolemia, low level of HDL-C, and high level of LDL-C in each age group. Their overall estimated 10-year risk for CHD was higher than the average risk of an age- and gender-matched population (2.91% vs. 2.79%, p=0.027). Working for more than 10h/day was associated with a higher estimated CHD risk (3.62% vs. 2.54%, p<0.01). A higher prevalence of hyperlipidemia was noted among IT workers. Their estimated 10-year CHD risk was also higher than average. More aggressive interventions to reduce the risk of CHD in this population are needed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimated erosion rate at the SRP burial ground

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horton, J.H.; Wilhite, E.L.

1978-04-01

The rate of soil erosion at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) burial ground can be calculated by means of the universal soil loss equation. Erosion rates estimated by the equation are more suitable for long-term prediction than those which could be measured with a reasonable effort in field studies. The predicted erosion rate at the SRP burial ground ranges from 0.0007 cm/year under stable forest cover to 0.38 cm/year if farmed with cultivated crops. These values correspond to 170,000 and 320 years, respectively, to expose waste buried 4 ft deep

Ten-year prevalence of mental disorders in patients presenting with chronic pain in secondary care

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søndergård, S; Vaegter, H B; Erlangsen, A

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: Prevalence rates of mental disorders in patients with chronic pain vary and may be overestimated when assessed by screening instruments only. Objectives were to estimate the 10-year prevalence of different mental disorders diagnosed by psychiatrists in patients with chronic pain compa...

Estimating the annotation error rate of curated GO database sequence annotations

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Brown Alfred L

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Annotations that describe the function of sequences are enormously important to researchers during laboratory investigations and when making computational inferences. However, there has been little investigation into the data quality of sequence function annotations. Here we have developed a new method of estimating the error rate of curated sequence annotations, and applied this to the Gene Ontology (GO sequence database (GOSeqLite. This method involved artificially adding errors to sequence annotations at known rates, and used regression to model the impact on the precision of annotations based on BLAST matched sequences. Results We estimated the error rate of curated GO sequence annotations in the GOSeqLite database (March 2006 at between 28% and 30%. Annotations made without use of sequence similarity based methods (non-ISS had an estimated error rate of between 13% and 18%. Annotations made with the use of sequence similarity methodology (ISS had an estimated error rate of 49%. Conclusion While the overall error rate is reasonably low, it would be prudent to treat all ISS annotations with caution. Electronic annotators that use ISS annotations as the basis of predictions are likely to have higher false prediction rates, and for this reason designers of these systems should consider avoiding ISS annotations where possible. Electronic annotators that use ISS annotations to make predictions should be viewed sceptically. We recommend that curators thoroughly review ISS annotations before accepting them as valid. Overall, users of curated sequence annotations from the GO database should feel assured that they are using a comparatively high quality source of information.

Brief Report: Prevalence of Autistic Spectrum Disorders in the Sultanate of Oman

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Farsi, Yahya M.; Al-Sharbati, Marwan M.; Al-Farsi, Omar A.; Al-Shafaee, Mohammed S.; Brooks, Daniel R.; Waly, Mostafa I.

2011-01-01

Prevalence of autistic spectrum disorders (ASD) in Oman is unknown. We conducted a cross-sectional study to estimate the prevalence of ASD among 0-14 year old children. Diagnoses were made as per DSM-IV-TR criteria and supplemented with information collected with the standard Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS) questionnaire. A total 113 cases of…

Back pain in the working population: Prevalence rates in Dutch trades and professions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hildebrandt, V.H.

1995-01-01

An analysis of three health surveys in the Dutch working population is described, aimed at the identification of Dutch trades and professions with relative high and low prevalence rates of back pain. The sample was representative of the working population in the Netherlands and consisted of 5840 men

Estimating reaction rate constants: comparison between traditional curve fitting and curve resolution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijlsma, S.; Boelens, H. F. M.; Hoefsloot, H. C. J.; Smilde, A. K.

2000-01-01

A traditional curve fitting (TCF) algorithm is compared with a classical curve resolution (CCR) approach for estimating reaction rate constants from spectral data obtained in time of a chemical reaction. In the TCF algorithm, reaction rate constants an estimated from the absorbance versus time data

The validated hypoallergenic cosmetics rating system: its 30-year evolution and effect on the prevalence of cosmetic reactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Verallo-Rowell, Vermén M

2011-01-01

The validated hypoallergenic (vh) rating system was initiated in 1988 to try to objectively validate the "hypoallergenic" claim in cosmetics. To show how the system rates cosmetic hypoallergenicity and to compare the prevalence of cosmetic contact dermatitis (CCD) among users of regular cosmetics versus cosmetics with high VH numbers. (1) Made a VH list based on top allergens from patch-test results published by the North American Contact Dermatitis Group (NACDG) and the European Surveillance System on Contact Allergies (ESSCA); (2) reviewed global regulatory, cosmetic, drug, packaging, and manufacturing practices to show how allergens may contaminate products; (3) compared cosmetic ingredients lists against the VH list to obtain the VH rating (the more allergens absent, the higher the VH rating); and (4) obtained CCD prevalence among users of regular cosmetics versus users of cosmetics with high VH ratings. (1) Two VH lists (1988, 2003) included only cosmetic allergens in the NACDG surveys, the third (2007) included cosmetic and potential contaminant noncosmetic allergens, and the fourth (2010) adds ESSCA patch-test surveys. (2) CCD prevalence is 0.05 to 0.12% (average, 0.08%) among users of cosmetics with high VH ratings versus 2.4 to 36.3% among users of regular cosmetics. The VH rating system is shown to objectively validate the hypoallergenic cosmetics claim.

Estimating prevalence of accumulated HIV-1 drug resistance in a cohort of patients on antiretroviral therapy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bannister, Wendy P; Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro; Kjær, Jesper

2011-01-01

Estimating the prevalence of accumulated HIV drug resistance in patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult due to lack of resistance testing at all occasions of virological failure and in patients with undetectable viral load. A method to estimate this for 6498 EuroSIDA patients...... who were under follow-up on ART at 1 July 2008 was therefore developed by imputing data on patients with no prior resistance test results, based on the probability of detecting resistance in tested patients with similar profiles....

Utilização das recomendações de nutrientes para estimar prevalência de consumo insuficiente das vitaminas C e E em gestantes Using recommended intakes to estimate the prevalence of insufficient consumption of vitamin C and E by pregnant women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maíra Barreto Malta

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Na gestação ocorrem adaptações que conduzem a um aumento da taxa metabólica basal, caracterizando um estado de alto nível de estresse oxidativo, tornando relevante a avaliação do consumo de nutrientes antioxidantes por mulheres grávidas. Este estudo teve como objetivo estimar a prevalência de consumo insuficiente das vitaminas C e E em gestantes assistidas em serviços públicos de saúde. Estudou-se amostra (n=107 representativa das mulheres no segundo trimestre gestacional atendidas durante o pré-natal nas unidades de atenção básica do município de Botucatu/SP. O consumo foi investigado mediante dois inquéritos recordatórios de 24 horas. Para estimar a prevalência de inadequação de consumo na população, foi utilizado o método EAR como ponto de corte. Diferenças de consumo (em tercis em relação a fatores socioeconômicos, obstétricos e hábitos de vida foram pesquisadas mediante análise estratificada, adotando-se pThe changes that occur during pregnancy lead to an increase in the basal metabolic rate, which characterizes a high oxidative-stress condition, thus making the evaluation of the intake of antioxidant nutrients by pregnant women a relevant issue. This study aimed at estimating the prevalence of insufficient intake of vitamin C and E by pregnant women assisted by public healthcare services. A representative sample (n=107 of women in the second gestational trimester was studied. Such women's prenatal care was provided by basic healthcare units in the city of Botucatu/SP. Intake was investigated by two 24-hour recalls. The EAR method was adopted as cutoff point in order to estimate the prevalence of intake inadequacy in the population. Intake differences (in terciles in relation to social, economic and obstetric factors as well as lifestyle were investigated by means of stratified analysis and by adopting a level of significance of p<0.05. The prevalence rates estimated for the insufficient intake of vitamins C

An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

2013-01-01

Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

A Fast Soft Bit Error Rate Estimation Method

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Ait-Idir Tarik

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We have suggested in a previous publication a method to estimate the Bit Error Rate (BER of a digital communications system instead of using the famous Monte Carlo (MC simulation. This method was based on the estimation of the probability density function (pdf of soft observed samples. The kernel method was used for the pdf estimation. In this paper, we suggest to use a Gaussian Mixture (GM model. The Expectation Maximisation algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of this mixture. The optimal number of Gaussians is computed by using Mutual Information Theory. The analytical expression of the BER is therefore simply given by using the different estimated parameters of the Gaussian Mixture. Simulation results are presented to compare the three mentioned methods: Monte Carlo, Kernel and Gaussian Mixture. We analyze the performance of the proposed BER estimator in the framework of a multiuser code division multiple access system and show that attractive performance is achieved compared with conventional MC or Kernel aided techniques. The results show that the GM method can drastically reduce the needed number of samples to estimate the BER in order to reduce the required simulation run-time, even at very low BER.

Respiratory rate estimation from the built-in cameras of smartphones and tablets.

Science.gov (United States)

Nam, Yunyoung; Lee, Jinseok; Chon, Ki H

2014-04-01

This paper presents a method for respiratory rate estimation using the camera of a smartphone, an MP3 player or a tablet. The iPhone 4S, iPad 2, iPod 5, and Galaxy S3 were used to estimate respiratory rates from the pulse signal derived from a finger placed on the camera lens of these devices. Prior to estimation of respiratory rates, we systematically investigated the optimal signal quality of these 4 devices by dividing the video camera's resolution into 12 different pixel regions. We also investigated the optimal signal quality among the red, green and blue color bands for each of these 12 pixel regions for all four devices. It was found that the green color band provided the best signal quality for all 4 devices and that the left half VGA pixel region was found to be the best choice only for iPhone 4S. For the other three devices, smaller 50 × 50 pixel regions were found to provide better or equally good signal quality than the larger pixel regions. Using the green signal and the optimal pixel regions derived from the four devices, we then investigated the suitability of the smartphones, the iPod 5 and the tablet for respiratory rate estimation using three different computational methods: the autoregressive (AR) model, variable-frequency complex demodulation (VFCDM), and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) approaches. Specifically, these time-varying spectral techniques were used to identify the frequency and amplitude modulations as they contain respiratory rate information. To evaluate the performance of the three computational methods and the pixel regions for the optimal signal quality, data were collected from 10 healthy subjects. It was found that the VFCDM method provided good estimates of breathing rates that were in the normal range (12-24 breaths/min). Both CWT and VFCDM methods provided reasonably good estimates for breathing rates that were higher than 26 breaths/min but their accuracy degraded concomitantly with increased respiratory rates

Estimating the Prevalence of Toxic Waste Sites in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Dowling, Russell; Caravanos, Jack; Grigsby, Patrick; Rivera, Anthony; Ericson, Bret; Amoyaw-Osei, Yaw; Akuffo, Bennett; Fuller, Richard

Exposure to heavy metals at contaminated industrial and mining sites, known also as hot spots, is a significant source of toxic exposure and adverse health outcomes in countries around the world. The Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP) developed by Pure Earth, a New York-based nongovernmental organization, is the only systematic effort to catalogue contaminated sites globally. To date, TSIP has identified and catalogued 3282 sites in low- and middle-income countries. The TSIP methodology is not designed to survey all contaminated sites in a country. Rather sites are prioritized based on their perceived impact on human health, and only a limited number of the most highly hazardous sites are surveyed. The total number of contaminated sites globally and the fraction of contaminated sites captured by TSIP is not known. To determine the TSIP site capture rate, the fraction of contaminated sites in a country catalogued by TSIP. Ghana was selected for this analysis because it is a rapidly industrializing lower middle income country with a heterogeneous industrial base, a highly urban population (51%), and good public records systems. To develop an estimate of the fraction of sites in Ghana captured by TSIP, assessors targeted randomly selected geographic quadrats for comprehensive assessment using area and population statistics from the Ghana Statistical Service. Investigators physically walked all accessible streets in each quadrat to visually identify all sites. Visual identification was supplemented by field-based confirmation with portable x-ray fluorescence instruments to test soils for metals. To extrapolate from survey findings to develop a range of estimates for the entire country, the investigators used 2 methodologies: a "bottom-up" approach that first estimated the number of waste sites in each region and then summed these regional subtotals to develop a total national estimate; and a "top-down" method that estimated the total number of sites in Ghana and

Estimating average glandular dose by measuring glandular rate in mammograms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goto, Sachiko; Azuma, Yoshiharu; Sumimoto, Tetsuhiro; Eiho, Shigeru

2003-01-01

The glandular rate of the breast was objectively measured in order to calculate individual patient exposure dose (average glandular dose) in mammography. By employing image processing techniques and breast-equivalent phantoms with various glandular rate values, a conversion curve for pixel value to glandular rate can be determined by a neural network. Accordingly, the pixel values in clinical mammograms can be converted to the glandular rate value for each pixel. The individual average glandular dose can therefore be calculated using the individual glandular rates on the basis of the dosimetry method employed for quality control in mammography. In the present study, a data set of 100 craniocaudal mammograms from 50 patients was used to evaluate our method. The average glandular rate and average glandular dose of the data set were 41.2% and 1.79 mGy, respectively. The error in calculating the individual glandular rate can be estimated to be less than ±3%. When the calculation error of the glandular rate is taken into consideration, the error in the individual average glandular dose can be estimated to be 13% or less. We feel that our method for determining the glandular rate from mammograms is useful for minimizing subjectivity in the evaluation of patient breast composition. (author)

Estimates of particle- and thorium-cycling rates in the northwest Atlantic Ocean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murnane, R.J.; Sarmiento, J.L.; Cochran, J.K.

1994-01-01

The authors provide least squares estimates of particle-cycling rate constants and their errors at 13 depths in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean using a compilation of published results and conservation equations for thorium and particle cycling. The predicted rates of particle aggregation and disaggregation vary through the water column. The means and standard deviations, based on lognormal probability distributions, for the lowest and highest rates of aggregation (β 2 ) and disaggregation (β -2 ) in the water column are 8±27 y -1 2 -1 , and 580±2000 y -1 -2 3 ±10 4 y -1 . Median values for these rates are 2.1 y -1 2 -1 , and 149 y -1 -2 -1 . Predicted rate constants for thorium adsorption (k 1 = 5.0±1.0x10 4 m 3 kg -1 y -1 ) and desorption (k -1 = 3.1±1.5 y -1 ) are consistent with previous estimates. Least squares estimates of the sum of the time dependence and transport terms from the particle and thorium conservation equations are on the same order as other terms in the conservation equations. Forcing this sum to equal zero would change the predicted rates. Better estimates of the time dependence of thorium activities and particle concentrations and of the concentration and flux of particulate organic matter would help to constrain estimates of β 2 and β -2 . 46 refs., 8 figs., 5 tabs

[Rate of prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension among women at reproductive age in China in 2013].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z Q; Zhao, Y F; Yang, J; Wang, L M; Zhao, Z P; Zeng, X Y; Wang, L H

2017-12-06

Objective: To analyze the rate of prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension among women at reproductive age (18-49 years old) in China in 2013. Methods: The analysis used data obtained from the China Chronic and non-communicable disease surveillance in 2013.The surveillance included 176 534 adults aging ≥18 years old, who were selected from 302 surveillance points by multi-stage cluster random sampling method. A total of 46 674 women at reproductive age (18-49 years old) were investigated. Blood pressures were measured by electronic blood pressure monitor. After being weighted according to complex sampling scheme and post-stratification, the rate of prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension were compared by different characteristics such as age, education, urban and rural areas, and geographic locations. Results: The prevalence of hypertension among women at reproductive age (18-49 years old) in China in 2013 was 13.5%. The rate in the rural areas was higher than that in urban areas (χ(2)=46.23, P 0.05). The hypertension prevalence in all age groups (18-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 years old) were 6.6%, 9.2%, 9.6%, 12.0%, 17.9% and 28.3%, respectively. The prevalence of hypertension showed a rising trend with age increasing ( t= 12.32, Pareas; and 21.3%, 18.5% and 5.9%, respectively in rural areas. The rates in urban areas were all higher than those in rural areas (chi square were separately 18.98, 21.31, and 6.80, P values areas.

Adult current smoking: differences in definitions and prevalence estimates--NHIS and NSDUH, 2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Heather; Trosclair, Angela; Gfroerer, Joe

2012-01-01

To compare prevalence estimates and assess issues related to the measurement of adult cigarette smoking in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). 2008 data on current cigarette smoking and current daily cigarette smoking among adults ≥18 years were compared. The standard NHIS current smoking definition, which screens for lifetime smoking ≥100 cigarettes, was used. For NSDUH, both the standard current smoking definition, which does not screen, and a modified definition applying the NHIS current smoking definition (i.e., with screen) were used. NSDUH consistently yielded higher current cigarette smoking estimates than NHIS and lower daily smoking estimates. However, with use of the modified NSDUH current smoking definition, a notable number of subpopulation estimates became comparable between surveys. Younger adults and racial/ethnic minorities were most impacted by the lifetime smoking screen, with Hispanics being the most sensitive to differences in smoking variable definitions among all subgroups. Differences in current cigarette smoking definitions appear to have a greater impact on smoking estimates in some sub-populations than others. Survey mode differences may also limit intersurvey comparisons and trend analyses. Investigators are cautioned to use data most appropriate for their specific research questions.

Estimating prevalence and diagnostic test characteristics of bovine cysticercosis in Belgium in the absence of a 'gold standard' reference test using a Bayesian approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Jansen, Famke; Dorny, Pierre; Gabriël, Sarah; Eichenberger, Ramon Marc; Berkvens, Dirk

2018-04-30

A Bayesian model was developed to estimate values for the prevalence and diagnostic test characteristics of bovine cysticercosis (Taenia saginata) by combining results of four imperfect tests. Samples of 612 bovine carcases that were found negative for cysticercosis during routine meat inspection collected at three Belgian slaughterhouses, underwent enhanced meat inspection (additional incisions in the heart), dissection of the predilection sites, B158/B60 Ag-ELISA and ES Ab-ELISA. This Bayesian approach allows for the combination of prior expert opinion with experimental data to estimate the true prevalence of bovine cysticercosis in the absence of a gold standard test. A first model (based on a multinomial distribution and including all possible interactions between the individual tests) required estimation of 31 parameters, while only allowing for 15 parameters to be estimated. Including prior expert information about specificity and sensitivity resulted in an optimal model with a reduction of the number of parameters to be estimated to 8. The estimated bovine cysticercosis prevalence was 33.9% (95% credibility interval: 27.7-44.4%), while apparent prevalence based on meat inspection is only 0.23%. The test performances were estimated as follows (sensitivity (Se) - specificity (Sp)): enhanced meat inspection (Se 2.87% - Sp 100%), dissection of predilection sites (Se 69.8% - Sp 100%), Ag-ELISA (Se 26.9% - Sp 99.4%), Ab-ELISA (Se 13.8% - Sp 92.9%). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CTX-M ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae: estimated prevalence in adults in England in 2014

Science.gov (United States)

McNulty, Cliodna A M; Lecky, Donna M; Xu-McCrae, Li; Nakiboneka-Ssenabulya, Deborah; Chung, Keun-Taik; Nichols, Tom; Thomas, Helen Lucy; Thomas, Mike; Alvarez-Buylla, Adela; Turner, Kim; Shabir, Sahida; Manzoor, Susan; Smith, Stephen; Crocker, Linda; Hawkey, Peter M

2018-01-01

Abstract Background ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBLPE) are increasing in prevalence worldwide and are more difficult to treat than non-ESBLPE. Their prevalence in the UK general population is unknown, as the only previous UK ESBLPE faecal colonization study involved patients with diarrhoea. Objectives To estimate the prevalence of CTX-M ESBLPE faecal colonization in the general adult population of England in 2014, and investigate risk factors. Methods A stratified random sample of 58 337 registered patients from 16 general practices within four areas of England were invited to participate by returning faeces specimens and self-completed questionnaires. Specimens were tested for ESBLPE and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE). Results 2430 individuals participated (4% of those invited). The estimated prevalence of colonization with CTX-M ESBLPE in England was 7.3% (95% CI 5.6%–9.4%) (Shropshire 774 participants, 4.9% colonization; Southampton City 740 participants, 9.2%; Newham 612 participants, 12.7%; Heart of Birmingham 234 individuals, 16.0%) and was particularly high in: those born in Afghanistan (10 participants, 60.0% colonization, 95% CI 29.7%–84.2%); those born on the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka) (259 participants, 25.0% colonization, 95% CI 18.5%–32.9%); travellers to South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Nepal) in the last year (140 participants, 38.5% colonization, 95% CI 27.8%–50.5%); and healthcare domestics (8 participants, unweighted 37.5% colonization, 95% CI 8.5%–75.5%). Risk factors identified included: being born in the Indian subcontinent (aOR 5.4, 95% CI 3.0–9.7); travel to South Asia (aOR 2.9, 95% CI 1.8–4.8) or to Africa, China, South or Central America, South East or Pacific Asia or Afghanistan (aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.7–4.1) in the last year; and working as a healthcare domestic (aOR 6.2, 95% CI 1.3–31). None of the 48 participants who took co-amoxiclav in

Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro [Faculty of Studies on Contemporary Society, Aichi Shukutoku Univ., Nagakute, Aichi (Japan)

2000-03-01

The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10{sup 16} per liter, or 2x10{sup 18} per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro

2000-01-01

The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10 16 per liter, or 2x10 18 per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

The impact of height during childhood on the national prevalence rates of overweight.

Science.gov (United States)

van Dommelen, Paula; de Kroon, Marlou L A; Cameron, Noël; Schönbeck, Yvonne; van Buuren, Stef

2014-01-01

It is known that height and body mass index (BMI) are correlated in childhood. However, its impact on the (trend of) national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity has never been investigated. The aim of our study is to investigate the relation between height and national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in childhood between 1980, 1997, and 2009, and to calculate which fixed value of p (2.0,2.1, …,3.0) in kg/m(p) during childhood is most accurate in predicting adult overweight. Cross-sectional growth data of children from three Dutch nationwide surveys in 1980, 1997, and 2009, and longitudinal data from the Terneuzen Birth Cohort and the Harpenden Growth Study were used. Relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Our study showed that tall (>1 standard deviation (SD)) girls aged 5.0-13.9 y were more often overweight (RR = 3.5,95%CI:2.8-4.4) and obese (RR = 3.9,95%CI:2.1-7.4) than short girls (rates of overweight and obesity than their shorter peers. We suggest taking into account the impact of height when evaluating trends and variations of BMI distributions in childhood, and to use BMI to predict adult overweight.

Quadratic Frequency Modulation Signals Parameter Estimation Based on Two-Dimensional Product Modified Parameterized Chirp Rate-Quadratic Chirp Rate Distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Zhiyu; Qu, Fuxin; Hou, Changbo; Jing, Fulong

2018-05-19

In an inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) imaging system for targets with complex motion, the azimuth echo signals of the target are always modeled as multicomponent quadratic frequency modulation (QFM) signals. The chirp rate (CR) and quadratic chirp rate (QCR) estimation of QFM signals is very important to solve the ISAR image defocus problem. For multicomponent QFM (multi-QFM) signals, the conventional QR and QCR estimation algorithms suffer from the cross-term and poor anti-noise ability. This paper proposes a novel estimation algorithm called a two-dimensional product modified parameterized chirp rate-quadratic chirp rate distribution (2D-PMPCRD) for QFM signals parameter estimation. The 2D-PMPCRD employs a multi-scale parametric symmetric self-correlation function and modified nonuniform fast Fourier transform-Fast Fourier transform to transform the signals into the chirp rate-quadratic chirp rate (CR-QCR) domains. It can greatly suppress the cross-terms while strengthening the auto-terms by multiplying different CR-QCR domains with different scale factors. Compared with high order ambiguity function-integrated cubic phase function and modified Lv's distribution, the simulation results verify that the 2D-PMPCRD acquires higher anti-noise performance and obtains better cross-terms suppression performance for multi-QFM signals with reasonable computation cost.

An estimation of the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and diabetic retinopathy in adults in Timor-Leste.

Science.gov (United States)

Dawkins, Rosie Claire Hewitt; Oliver, Genevieve Frances; Sharma, Manoj; Pinto, Basilio Martins; Jeronimo, Belmerio; Pereira, Bernadete; Magno, Julia; Motta, Lara Alexandra; Verma, Nitin; Shephard, Mark

2015-06-18

Once considered an affliction of people in high-income countries, diabetes mellitus is increasingly seen as a global epidemic. However, for many countries very little is known about the prevalence of diabetes and its complications. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of diabetes, and diabetic retinopathy, in adults in Timor-Leste. From March 2013 to May 2014, adult patients being assessed for cataract surgery at the Sentru Matan Nasional (National Eye Centre) in Dili, Timor-Leste had a point-of-care HbA1c measurement performed on the DCA Vantage device (Siemens Ltd) under a quality framework. A diagnostic cut-off of 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) HbA1c was used for diagnosis of diabetes. Ocular examination, blood pressure, demographic and general health data were also collected. Diabetic retinopathy assessment was carried out by ophthalmologists. A total of 283 people [mean age 63.6 years (range 20-90 years)] were tested and examined during the study period. Forty-three people (15.2%) were found to have diabetes, with a mean HbA1c of 9.5% (77 mmol/mol). Of these, 27 (62.9%) were newly diagnosed, with a mean HbA1c of 9.7% (83 mmol/mol) and a range of 6.6-14% (49-130 mmol/mol). Nearly half (48.1%) of people newly diagnosed with diabetes had an HbA1c over 10.0% (86 mmol/mol). Of those with known diabetes, only 68.8% were receiving any treatment. Mean HbA1c for treated patients was 9.9% (85 mmol/mol). Diabetic retinopathy was identified in 18.6% of people with diabetes, of whom half had no previous diagnosis of diabetes. This study estimates the prevalence of diabetes at 15% in adults in Timor-Leste, a substantial proportion of whom have evidence of diabetic retinopathy. This is consistent with regional estimates. With the majority of patients undiagnosed, and management of people known to have diabetes largely inadequate, point-of-care testing is a valuable tool to assist with diabetes case detection and management. Whilst only a preliminary estimate, our data provides

Estimation of Uncertainty in Tracer Gas Measurement of Air Change Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Atsushi Iizuka

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of

Fill rate estimation in periodic review policies with lost sales using simple methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardós, M.; Guijarro Tarradellas, E.; Babiloni Griñón, E.

2016-07-01

Purpose: The exact estimation of the fill rate in the lost sales case is complex and time consuming. However, simple and suitable methods are needed for its estimation so that inventory managers could use them. Design/methodology/approach: Instead of trying to compute the fill rate in one step, this paper focuses first on estimating the probabilities of different on-hand stock levels so that the fill rate is computed later. Findings: As a result, the performance of a novel proposed method overcomes the other methods and is relatively simple to compute. Originality/value: Existing methods for estimating stock levels are examined, new procedures are proposed and their performance is assessed.

Prevalence and Correlates of Youth Homelessness in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Morton, Matthew H.; Dworsky, Amy; Matjasko, Jennifer L.; Curry, Susanna R.; Schlueter, David; Chávez, Raúl; Farrell, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Purpose Unaccompanied youth homelessness is a serious concern. Response, however, has been constrained by the absence of credible data on the size and characteristics of the population and reliable means to track youth homelessness over time. We sought to address these gaps. Methods Using a nationally representative phone-based survey (N = 26,161), we solicited household and individual reports on different types of youth homelessness. We collected household reports on adolescents aged 13–17 and young adults aged 18–25, as well as self-reports from young adults aged 18–25. Follow-up interviews with a subsample (n = 150) provided additional information on youth experiences and enabled adjustment for inclusion errors. Results Over a 12-month period, approximately 3.0% of households with 13- to 17-year-olds reported explicit youth homelessness (including running away or being asked to leave) and 1.3% reported experiences that solely involved couch surfing, resulting in an overall 4.3% household prevalence of any homelessness, broadly defined. For 18- to 25-year-olds, household prevalence estimates were 5.9% for explicitly reported homelessness, 6.6% for couch surfing only, and 12.5% overall. The 12-month population prevalence estimates, available only for 18- to 25-year-olds, were 5.2%, 4.5%, and 9.7%, respectively. Incidence rates were about half as high as prevalence rates. Prevalence rates were similar across rural and nonrural counties. Higher risk of homelessness was observed among young parents; black, Hispanic, and lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender (LGBT) youth; and those who did not complete high school. Conclusions The prevalence and incidence of youth homelessness reveal a significant need for prevention and youth-centric systems and services, as well as strategies to address disproportionate risks of certain subpopulations. PMID:29153445

Prevalence and Correlates of Youth Homelessness in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Morton, Matthew H; Dworsky, Amy; Matjasko, Jennifer L; Curry, Susanna R; Schlueter, David; Chávez, Raúl; Farrell, Anne F

2018-01-01

Unaccompanied youth homelessness is a serious concern. Response, however, has been constrained by the absence of credible data on the size and characteristics of the population and reliable means to track youth homelessness over time. We sought to address these gaps. Using a nationally representative phone-based survey (N = 26,161), we solicited household and individual reports on different types of youth homelessness. We collected household reports on adolescents aged 13-17 and young adults aged 18-25, as well as self-reports from young adults aged 18-25. Follow-up interviews with a subsample (n = 150) provided additional information on youth experiences and enabled adjustment for inclusion errors. Over a 12-month period, approximately 3.0% of households with 13- to 17-year-olds reported explicit youth homelessness (including running away or being asked to leave) and 1.3% reported experiences that solely involved couch surfing, resulting in an overall 4.3% household prevalence of any homelessness, broadly defined. For 18- to 25-year-olds, household prevalence estimates were 5.9% for explicitly reported homelessness, 6.6% for couch surfing only, and 12.5% overall. The 12-month population prevalence estimates, available only for 18- to 25-year-olds, were 5.2%, 4.5%, and 9.7%, respectively. Incidence rates were about half as high as prevalence rates. Prevalence rates were similar across rural and nonrural counties. Higher risk of homelessness was observed among young parents; black, Hispanic, and lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender (LGBT) youth; and those who did not complete high school. The prevalence and incidence of youth homelessness reveal a significant need for prevention and youth-centric systems and services, as well as strategies to address disproportionate risks of certain subpopulations. Copyright © 2017 The Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. All rights reserved.

Convergence Rate Analysis of Distributed Gossip (Linear Parameter) Estimation: Fundamental Limits and Tradeoffs

Science.gov (United States)

Kar, Soummya; Moura, José M. F.

2011-08-01

The paper considers gossip distributed estimation of a (static) distributed random field (a.k.a., large scale unknown parameter vector) observed by sparsely interconnected sensors, each of which only observes a small fraction of the field. We consider linear distributed estimators whose structure combines the information \\emph{flow} among sensors (the \\emph{consensus} term resulting from the local gossiping exchange among sensors when they are able to communicate) and the information \\emph{gathering} measured by the sensors (the \\emph{sensing} or \\emph{innovations} term.) This leads to mixed time scale algorithms--one time scale associated with the consensus and the other with the innovations. The paper establishes a distributed observability condition (global observability plus mean connectedness) under which the distributed estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal. We introduce the distributed notion equivalent to the (centralized) Fisher information rate, which is a bound on the mean square error reduction rate of any distributed estimator; we show that under the appropriate modeling and structural network communication conditions (gossip protocol) the distributed gossip estimator attains this distributed Fisher information rate, asymptotically achieving the performance of the optimal centralized estimator. Finally, we study the behavior of the distributed gossip estimator when the measurements fade (noise variance grows) with time; in particular, we consider the maximum rate at which the noise variance can grow and still the distributed estimator being consistent, by showing that, as long as the centralized estimator is consistent, the distributed estimator remains consistent.

[Estimates of the prevalence of child malnutrition in Brazilian municipalities in 2006].

Science.gov (United States)

Benício, Maria Helena D'Aquino; Martins, Ana Paula Bortoletto; Venancio, Sonia Isoyama; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de

2013-06-01

To estimate the prevalence of malnutrition in children for all Brazilian municipalities. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to estimate the individual probability of malnutrition in 5,507 Brazilian municipalities in 2006, in terms of predictive factors grouped according to hierarchical levels. The response variable was child malnutrition (children aged from six to 59 months with height for age and sex below -2 z-scores, according to the World Health Organization standard). The predictive variables were determinants of malnutrition measured similarly by the National Demographics and Health Survey-2006 and the Sample from the 2000 Demographic Census. At level 1 (individual): sex and age, level 2 (household): socioeconomic variables, water and indoor plumbing, urban or rural area and level 3 (municipal): location of the municipality and coverage of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) in 2006. The study detected a statistically significant chance of malnutrition in male children, those living in households with two or more individuals per room, those belonging to the lowest quintiles of the socioeconomic score, those with three or more children under five in the household, those with no access to running water or located in the North. There was a negative dose-response association between FHS coverage and the chance of malnutrition (p = 0.007). FHS coverage in the municipality equal to or greater than 70% showed a 45% reduction in the chance of infant malnutrition. Estimates of the prevalence of child malnutrition show that most of the cities have the risk of malnutrition under control, very low or low. Risks of greater magnitude exist only in 158 municipalities in the North Region. Childhood malnutrition as a public health problem is concentrated in the cities of the North region, where FHS coverage is lower. A protective effect of FHS in relation to child malnutrition was found in the country as a whole, irrespective of other determinants of the problem.

Computed tomography (CT) findings in 88 neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) patients: Prevalence rates and correlations of thoracic findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ueda, Ken; Honda, Osamu; Satoh, Yukihisa; Kawai, Misa; Gyobu, Tomoko; Kanazawa, Toru; Hidaka, Shojiro; Yanagawa, Masahiro; Sumikawa, Hiromitsu; Tomiyama, Noriyuki

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Various thoracic CT findings, including cysts, mediastinal masses, etc. were found. • Cysts show upper and peripheral dominant distribution. • The number, size, and distribution of the pulmonary cysts in NF-1 revealed significant correlation. • It is suspected that thoracic CT findings in NF-1 occur independently. - Abstract: Purpose: To evaluate the prevalence rates and the correlations of thoracic computed tomography (CT) findings of neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) in 88 patients. Materials and methods: Chest CT images of 88 NF1 patients were independently reviewed by three observers, and the CT findings were evaluated. If abnormal findings were present, their number, size, and distribution were recorded. The prevalence rate of each CT finding was calculated, and the correlations between CT findings were analyzed. Results: Of the 88 cases, 13 were positive for cysts, 16 for emphysema, 8 for nodules, 8 for GGNs (ground glass nodules), 13 for mediastinal masses, 20 for scoliosis, 44 for subcutaneous nodules, and 34 for skin nodules. Cysts showed upper and peripheral dominant distributions. Regarding 13 mediastinal masses, 2 were diagnosed as malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNSTs), 1 was diagnosed as primary lung cancer, 2 were diagnosed as lateral meningocele, 3 were diagnosed as neurofibromas, and the remaining 7 were considered neurofibromas. There was a significant correlation between the prevalence of subcutaneous nodules and that of skin nodules. Significant positive correlations were also seen between size and number, size and rate of central distribution, and number and rate of central distribution of cysts. Conclusion: Various CT findings were found in NF-1 patients, and the prevalence rates of subcutaneous and skin nodules were higher than other findings. Though the prevalence rates of subcutaneous nodules and skin nodules were significantly correlated, the other CT findings in NF-1 occurred independently. The number, size, and

Computed tomography (CT) findings in 88 neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) patients: Prevalence rates and correlations of thoracic findings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ueda, Ken, E-mail: k-ueda@radiol.med.osaka-u.ac.jp [Department of Radiology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine (Japan); Honda, Osamu [Department of Radiology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine (Japan); Satoh, Yukihisa [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases (Japan); Kawai, Misa; Gyobu, Tomoko; Kanazawa, Toru; Hidaka, Shojiro; Yanagawa, Masahiro [Department of Radiology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine (Japan); Sumikawa, Hiromitsu [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Osaka Rosai Hospital (Japan); Tomiyama, Noriyuki [Department of Radiology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine (Japan)

2015-06-15

Highlights: • Various thoracic CT findings, including cysts, mediastinal masses, etc. were found. • Cysts show upper and peripheral dominant distribution. • The number, size, and distribution of the pulmonary cysts in NF-1 revealed significant correlation. • It is suspected that thoracic CT findings in NF-1 occur independently. - Abstract: Purpose: To evaluate the prevalence rates and the correlations of thoracic computed tomography (CT) findings of neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) in 88 patients. Materials and methods: Chest CT images of 88 NF1 patients were independently reviewed by three observers, and the CT findings were evaluated. If abnormal findings were present, their number, size, and distribution were recorded. The prevalence rate of each CT finding was calculated, and the correlations between CT findings were analyzed. Results: Of the 88 cases, 13 were positive for cysts, 16 for emphysema, 8 for nodules, 8 for GGNs (ground glass nodules), 13 for mediastinal masses, 20 for scoliosis, 44 for subcutaneous nodules, and 34 for skin nodules. Cysts showed upper and peripheral dominant distributions. Regarding 13 mediastinal masses, 2 were diagnosed as malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNSTs), 1 was diagnosed as primary lung cancer, 2 were diagnosed as lateral meningocele, 3 were diagnosed as neurofibromas, and the remaining 7 were considered neurofibromas. There was a significant correlation between the prevalence of subcutaneous nodules and that of skin nodules. Significant positive correlations were also seen between size and number, size and rate of central distribution, and number and rate of central distribution of cysts. Conclusion: Various CT findings were found in NF-1 patients, and the prevalence rates of subcutaneous and skin nodules were higher than other findings. Though the prevalence rates of subcutaneous nodules and skin nodules were significantly correlated, the other CT findings in NF-1 occurred independently. The number, size, and

Does multimorbidity influence the occurrence rates of chronic conditions? A claims data based comparison of expected and observed prevalence rates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ingmar Schäfer

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Multimorbidity is a complex phenomenon with an almost endless number of possible disease combinations with unclear implications. One important aspect in analyzing the clustering of diseases is to distinguish between random coexistence and statistical dependency. We developed a model to account for random coexistence based on stochastic distribution. We analyzed if the number of diseases of the patients influences the occurrence rates of chronic conditions. METHODS: We analyzed claims data of 121,389 persons aged 65+ using a list of 46 chronic conditions. Expected prevalences were simulated by drawing without replacement from all observed diseases using observed overall prevalences as initial probability weights. To determine if a disease occurs more or less frequently than expected by chance we calculated observed-minus-expected deltas for each disease. We defined clinical relevance as |delta| ≥ 5.0%. 18 conditions were excluded because of a prevalence < 5.0%. RESULTS: We found that (1 two chronic conditions (e.g. hypertension were more frequent than expected in patients with a low number of comorbidities; (2 four conditions (e.g. renal insufficiency were more frequent in patients with many comorbidities; (3 six conditions (e.g. cancer were less frequent with many comorbidities; and (4 16 conditions had an average course of prevalences. CONCLUSION: A growing extent of multimorbidity goes along with a rapid growth of prevalences. This is for the largest part merely a stochastic effect. If we account for this effect we find that only few diseases deviate from the expected prevalence curves. Causes for these deviations are discussed. Our approach also has methodological implications: Naive analyses of multimorbidity might easily be affected by bias, because the prevalence of all chronic conditions necessarily increases with a growing extent of multimorbidity. We should therefore always examine and discuss the stochastic interrelations

The Incidence and Prevalence of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in San Francisco County, California: The California Lupus Surveillance Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Dall'Era, Maria; Cisternas, Miriam G; Snipes, Kurt; Herrinton, Lisa J; Gordon, Caroline; Helmick, Charles G

2017-10-01

Estimates of the incidence and prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the US have varied widely. The purpose of this study was to conduct the California Lupus Surveillance Project (CLSP) to determine credible estimates of SLE incidence and prevalence, with a special focus on Hispanics and Asians. The CLSP, which is funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is a population-based registry of individuals with SLE residing in San Francisco County, CA, from January 1, 2007 through December 31, 2009. Data sources included hospitals, rheumatologists, nephrologists, commercial laboratories, and a state hospital discharge database. We abstracted medical records to ascertain SLE cases, which we defined as patients who met ≥4 of the 11 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria for SLE. We estimated crude and age-standardized incidence and prevalence, which were stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. The overall age-standardized annual incidence rate was 4.6 per 100,000 person-years. The average annual period prevalence was 84.8 per 100,000 persons. The age-standardized incidence rate in women and men was 8.6 and 0.7 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. This rate was highest among black women (30.5), followed by Hispanic women (8.9), Asian women (7.2), and white women (5.3). The age-standardized prevalence in women per 100,000 persons was 458.1 in blacks, 177.9 in Hispanics, 149.7 in Asians, and 109.8 in whites. Capture-recapture modeling estimated 33 additional incident cases and 147 additional prevalent cases. Comprehensive methods that include intensive case-finding provide more credible estimates of SLE in Hispanics and Asians, and confirm racial and ethnic disparities in SLE. The disease burden of SLE is highest in black women, followed by Hispanic women, Asian women, and white women. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

The Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Romania

OpenAIRE

Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu; Vasile Dedu

2009-01-01

This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Romania, respectively the real exchange rate consistent with the macroeconomic balance, which is achieved when the economy is operating at full employment and low inflation (internal balance) and has a current account that is sustainable (external balance). This equilibrium real exchange rate is very important for an economy because deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value can affect the competitiveness ...

Prevalence of Coxielle Burnetii anbitodies in Danish Dairy herds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agger, Jens F.; Christoffersen, Anna-Bodil; Rattenborg, Erik

2010-01-01

During recent years in Denmark higher rates of antibodies to Coxiella burnetii have been detected in animals and humans than previously reported. A study based on bulk tank milk samples from 100 randomly selected dairy herds was performed to estimate the prevalence and geographical distribution o...

Utilizing Healthcare Developments, Demographic Data with Statistical Techniques to Estimate the Diarrhoea Prevalence in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastava, Shweta; Vatsalya, Vatsalya; Arora, Ashoo; Arora, Kashmiri L; Karch, Robert

2012-03-22

Diarrhoea is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in developing countries in Africa and South Asia such as India. Prevalence of diarrheal diseases in those countries is higher than developed western world and largely has been associated with socio-economic and sanitary conditions. However, present available data has not been sufficiently evaluated to study the role of other factors like healthcare development, population density, sex and regional influence on diarrheal prevalence pattern. Study was performed to understand the relationship of diarrheal prevalence with specific measures namely; healthcare services development, demographics, population density, socio-economic conditions, sex, and regional prevalence patterns in India. Data from Annual national health reports and other epidemiological studies were included and statistically analyzed. Our results demonstrate significant correlation of the disease prevalence pattern with certain measures like healthcare centers, population growth rate, sex and region-specific morbidity. Available information on sanitation like water supply and toilet availability and socioeconomic conditions like poverty and literacy measures could only be associated as trends of significance. This study can be valuable for improvisation of appropriate strategies focused on important measures like healthcare resources, population growth and regional significances to evaluate prevalence patterns and management of the diarrhoea locally and globally.

The Prevalence of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Diverse Geographical and Ethnocultural Regions: The COSMIC Collaboration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Perminder S Sachdev

Full Text Available Changes in criteria and differences in populations studied and methodology have produced a wide range of prevalence estimates for mild cognitive impairment (MCI.Uniform criteria were applied to harmonized data from 11 studies from USA, Europe, Asia and Australia, and MCI prevalence estimates determined using three separate definitions of cognitive impairment.The published range of MCI prevalence estimates was 5.0%-36.7%. This was reduced with all cognitive impairment definitions: performance in the bottom 6.681% (3.2%-10.8%; Clinical Dementia Rating of 0.5 (1.8%-14.9%; Mini-Mental State Examination score of 24-27 (2.1%-20.7%. Prevalences using the first definition were 5.9% overall, and increased with age (P < .001 but were unaffected by sex or the main races/ethnicities investigated (Whites and Chinese. Not completing high school increased the likelihood of MCI (P ≤ .01.Applying uniform criteria to harmonized data greatly reduced the variation in MCI prevalence internationally.

Prevalence of sickle cell disease among children attending plateau specialist hospital, Jos, Nigeria

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Nanbur Stephen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background: An estimate of 250,000 children are born annually with sickle cell disease (SCD worldwide and 75%–85% of the affected children are born in Africa; where mortality rates for those under age 5 years range from 50% to 80%. Objective: The present study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of SCD among children in Plateau State Specialist Hospital (PSSH, Jos, Nigeria. Methodology: Ethical approval was obtained from the Health Research Ethics Committee of the Hospital. Secondary data on age, gender, and region from the case notes of infants, children and/or adolescents; who received medical care in PSSH from 2012 to 2014 were used. Data were analyzed using frequency tables and Chi-square statistics. Results: The findings revealed that the prevalence of SCD in PSSH, Jos from 2012 to 2014 was 26.9/1000 population of pediatric patients. There was a gradual increase in the prevalence rate from 25.8/1000 in 2012 to 26.8/1000 in 2013 and 28.1/1000 in 2014. However, the case fatality rate of SCD gradually decreased from 15.4% in 2012 to 11.1% in 2013 and 10.3% in 2014. Chi-square test shows that the prevalence of the disease in relation to sex, age, and residence was not statistically significant (P > 0.05. Even though the case fatality rate of the disease decreased, its prevalence increased during the study. Conclusion: Therefore, preventive measure for SCD such as premarital genetic screening and counseling should be emphasized, especially in the southern and central geopolitical zones of Plateau state, where the prevalence was found to be higher.

A systematic review of the prevalence of schizophrenia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sukanta Saha

2005-05-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Understanding the prevalence of schizophrenia has important implications for both health service planning and risk factor epidemiology. The aims of this review are to systematically identify and collate studies describing the prevalence of schizophrenia, to summarize the findings of these studies, and to explore selected factors that may influence prevalence estimates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Studies with original data related to the prevalence of schizophrenia (published 1965-2002 were identified via searching electronic databases, reviewing citations, and writing to authors. These studies were divided into "core" studies, "migrant" studies, and studies based on "other special groups." Between- and within-study filters were applied in order to identify discrete prevalence estimates. Cumulative plots of prevalence estimates were made and the distributions described when the underlying estimates were sorted according to prevalence type (point, period, lifetime, and lifetime morbid risk. Based on combined prevalence estimates, the influence of selected key variables was examined (sex, urbanicity, migrant status, country economic index, and study quality. A total of 1,721 prevalence estimates from 188 studies were identified. These estimates were drawn from 46 countries, and were based on an estimated 154,140 potentially overlapping prevalent cases. We identified 132 core studies, 15 migrant studies, and 41 studies based on other special groups. The median values per 1,000 persons (10%-90% quantiles for the distributions for point, period, lifetime, and lifetime morbid risk were 4.6 (1.9-10.0, 3.3 (1.3-8.2, 4.0 (1.6-12.1, and 7.2 (3.1-27.1, respectively. Based on combined prevalence estimates, we found no significant difference (a between males and females, or (b between urban, rural, and mixed sites. The prevalence of schizophrenia in migrants was higher compared to native-born individuals: the migrant-to-native-born ratio median (10

Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiaowei; Zhu, Hongxiao

2015-02-07

Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prevalence of Food Additive Intolerance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard

1994-01-01

The prevalence estimates vary with a factor 100. As the results vary so do the study populations. 6 If the different study populations are accounted for, a common conclusion can be drawn: Food additive intolerance is found in adults with atopic symptoms from the respiratory tract and skin. The prevalence......1 The existing prevalence estimates of food additive intolerance(1-4) are being reviewed. 2 In the EEC report the estimated frequency of food additive intolerance is 0.03% to 0.15% based on data from patient groups. 3 The British population study results in a prevalence estimate of 0.......026%. The challenged population is 81 children and adults with a history of reproducible clinical symptoms after ingestion of food additives. 4 In the Danish population study a prevalence of 1-2% is found in children age 5-16. In this study a total of 606 children mainly with atopic disease have been challenged. 5...

Advantages of video questionnaire in estimating asthma prevalence and risk factors for school children: findings from an asthma survey in American Indian youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, Fawn; Rhoades, Everett R; Tarpay, Martha; Eichner, June E

2010-09-01

The aims of the present study were to estimate the prevalence and risk factors of asthma among a sample of American Indian youth and to evaluate survey instruments used in determining asthma prevalence and risk factors. Three hundred and fifty-two adolescents aged 9 to 21 years enrolled in an Indian boarding school completed an asthma screening. The survey instruments were a written questionnaire and a video-illustrated questionnaire prepared from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC), school health records, and a health questionnaire. Participants also underwent spirometry testing. The prevalence of self-reported asthma varied from 12.7% to 13.4% depending upon the instrument used and the questions asked. A history of hay fever, respiratory infections, and family history of asthma were found to be risk factors for asthma by all instruments. Female gender and living on a reservation were significantly associated with asthma by some, but not all, instruments. Airway obstruction was highly associated with one asthma symptom (wheeze) shown in the video questionnaire. Associations for most risk factors with asthma were strongest for the video questionnaire. The prevalence of self-reported asthma among these American Indian youth was similar to rates reported for other ethnic groups. The video-based questionnaire may be the most sensitive tool for identifying individuals at risk for asthma.

Estimation of flow rates through intergranular stress corrosion cracks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collier, R.P.; Norris, D.M.

1984-01-01

Experimental studies of critical two-phase water flow, through simulated and actual intergranular stress corrosion cracks, were performed to obtain data to evaluate a leak flow rate model and investigate acoustic transducer effectiveness in detecting and sizing leaks. The experimental program included a parametric study of the effects of crack geometry, fluid stagnation pressure and temperature, and crack surface roughness on leak flow rate. In addition, leak detection, location, and leak size estimation capabilities of several different acoustic transducers were evaluated as functions of leak rate and transducer position. This paper presents flow rate data for several different cracks and fluid conditions. It also presents the minimum flow rate detected with the acoustic sensors and a relationship between acoustic signal strength and leak flow rate

Oxygen transfer rate estimation in oxidation ditches from clean water measurements.

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Abusam, A; Keesman, K J; Meinema, K; Van Straten, G

2001-06-01

Standard methods for the determination of oxygen transfer rate are based on assumptions that are not valid for oxidation ditches. This paper presents a realistic and simple new method to be used in the estimation of oxygen transfer rate in oxidation ditches from clean water measurements. The new method uses a loop-of-CSTRs model, which can be easily incorporated within control algorithms, for modelling oxidation ditches. Further, this method assumes zero oxygen transfer rates (KLa) in the unaerated CSTRs. Application of a formal estimation procedure to real data revealed that the aeration constant (k = KLaVA, where VA is the volume of the aerated CSTR) can be determined significantly more accurately than KLa and VA. Therefore, the new method estimates k instead of KLa. From application to real data, this method proved to be more accurate than the commonly used Dutch standard method (STORA, 1980).

Low disease prevalence and inappropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator shock rate in Brugada syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holst, Anders Gaarsdal; Jensen, Henrik Kjærulf; Eschen, Ole

2012-01-01

AimsBrugada syndrome (BrS) is an inherited channelopathy that predisposes to malignant ventricular arrhythmias and thereby syncope and sudden cardiac death. Prior studies characterizing BrS patients have used highly selected referral populations from tertiary centres and prevalence estimates have...... been carried out using electrocardiogram (ECG) surveys only. We aimed to identify and characterize all diagnosed BrS patients in Denmark (population 5.4 million).Methods and resultsBrugada syndrome patients were identified using several modalities including identification in all Danish tertiary......%) experienced inappropriate shocks during a median follow-up of 47 months. No patient died or experienced aborted sudden cardiac death during follow-up.ConclusionsWe report the first nationwide study of BrS patients. We found a low incidence of diagnosed definite BrS compared with estimates from ECG surveys...

Counting and confusion: Bayesian rate estimation with multiple populations

Science.gov (United States)

Farr, Will M.; Gair, Jonathan R.; Mandel, Ilya; Cutler, Curt

2015-01-01

We show how to obtain a Bayesian estimate of the rates or numbers of signal and background events from a set of events when the shapes of the signal and background distributions are known, can be estimated, or approximated; our method works well even if the foreground and background event distributions overlap significantly and the nature of any individual event cannot be determined with any certainty. We give examples of determining the rates of gravitational-wave events in the presence of background triggers from a template bank when noise parameters are known and/or can be fit from the trigger data. We also give an example of determining globular-cluster shape, location, and density from an observation of a stellar field that contains a nonuniform background density of stars superimposed on the cluster stars.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

Size estimation, HIV prevalence and risk behaviours of female sex workers in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altaf, A.; Aga, A.; McKinizie, M.H.; Abbas, Q.; Jafri, S.B.

2012-01-01

Objective: To provide size estimation and to determine risky behaviours and HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Pakistan, which has progressed from a low to concentrated level of HIV epidemic. Methods: A cross-sectional study (geographic mapping and integrated behavioural and biological survey-IBBS) was conducted between August 2005 to January 2006 in Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur. A detailed questionnaire and dry blood spot (DBS) specimen for HIV testing were collected by trained interviewers after informed consent. The study was ethically approved by review boards in Canada and Pakistan. Results: About 14,900 female sex workers were estimated to be functional in Sindh. A total of 1158 of them were interviewed for the study. Average age of sex workers was 27.4+- 6.7 years, and the majority 787 (67.9%) were married, and uneducated 764 (65.9%). Sindhi (26.4%) was the predominant ethnicity. Mean number of paid clients was 2.1+-1.2. Three workers were confirmed HIV positive (0.75%, 95 percent CI 0.2-2.2%) from Karachi. Condom use at last sexual act was highest (68%) among brothel-based workers from Karachi, and the lowest in Sukkur where only 1.3% street-based workers reported using a condom at last sexual act. Overall use of illicit drugs through injections was negligible. Conclusion: HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Sindh, Pakistan is low but risky behaviours are present. Well organised service delivery programmes can help promoting safer practices. (author)

Application of a conversion factor to estimate the adenoma detection rate from the polyp detection rate.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Francis, Dawn L

2011-03-01

The adenoma detection rate (ADR) is a quality benchmark for colonoscopy. Many practices find it difficult to determine the ADR because it requires a combination of endoscopic and histologic findings. It may be possible to apply a conversion factor to estimate the ADR from the polyp detection rate (PDR).

Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

Precise estimates of mutation rate and spectrum in yeast

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Yuan O.; Siegal, Mark L.; Hall, David W.; Petrov, Dmitri A.

2014-01-01

Mutation is the ultimate source of genetic variation. The most direct and unbiased method of studying spontaneous mutations is via mutation accumulation (MA) lines. Until recently, MA experiments were limited by the cost of sequencing and thus provided us with small numbers of mutational events and therefore imprecise estimates of rates and patterns of mutation. We used whole-genome sequencing to identify nearly 1,000 spontaneous mutation events accumulated over ∼311,000 generations in 145 diploid MA lines of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. MA experiments are usually assumed to have negligible levels of selection, but even mild selection will remove strongly deleterious events. We take advantage of such patterns of selection and show that mutation classes such as indels and aneuploidies (especially monosomies) are proportionately much more likely to contribute mutations of large effect. We also provide conservative estimates of indel, aneuploidy, environment-dependent dominant lethal, and recessive lethal mutation rates. To our knowledge, for the first time in yeast MA data, we identified a sufficiently large number of single-nucleotide mutations to measure context-dependent mutation rates and were able to (i) confirm strong AT bias of mutation in yeast driven by high rate of mutations from C/G to T/A and (ii) detect a higher rate of mutation at C/G nucleotides in two specific contexts consistent with cytosine methylation in S. cerevisiae. PMID:24847077

Estimating Infiltration Rates for a Loessal Silt Loam Using Soil Properties

Science.gov (United States)

M. Dean Knighton

1978-01-01

Soil properties were related to infiltration rates as measured by single-ringsteady-head infiltometers. The properties showing strong simple correlations were identified. Regression models were developed to estimate infiltration rate from several soil properties. The best model gave fair agreement to measured rates at another location.

Non-response bias in physical activity trend estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bauman Adrian

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Increases in reported leisure time physical activity (PA and obesity have been observed in several countries. One hypothesis for these apparently contradictory trends is differential bias in estimates over time. The purpose of this short report is to examine the potential impact of changes in response rates over time on the prevalence of adequate PA in Canadian adults. Methods Participants were recruited in representative national telephone surveys of PA from 1995-2007. Differences in PA prevalence estimates between participants and those hard to reach were assessed using Student's t tests adjusted for multiple comparisons. Results The number of telephone calls required to reach and speak with someone in the household increased over time, as did the percentage of selected participants who initially refused during the first interview attempt. A higher prevalence of adequate PA was observed with 5-9 attempts to reach anyone in the household in 1999-2002, but this was not significant after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Conclusion No significant impact on PA trend estimates was observed due to differential non response rates. It is important for health policy makers to understand potential biases and how these may affect secular trends in all aspects of the energy balance equation.

Estimation of glandular content rate and statistical analysis of the influence of age group and compressed breast thickness on the estimated value

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohmori, Naoki; Ashida, Kenji; Fujita, Osamu

2003-01-01

Because the glandular content rate is an important factor in evaluating breast cancer detection and average glandular dose, it is important in mammography research to estimate and analyze this rate. The purpose of this study was to obtain a formula for statistical estimation of the glandular content rate, to clarify statistically the influence of age group and compressed breast thickness (CBT) on estimating the glandular content rate, and to show statistically the general relation between glandular content rate and the factors of age and CBT. The subjects were 740 Japanese women aged 20-91 years (mean±SD: 48.3±12.8 years) who had undergone mammography. In our study, the glandular content rate was statistically estimated from age group, mAs-value, and CBT when subjects underwent mammography, from a phantom simulation, and from MR images of the breast. In addition, multivariate analysis was carried to examine statistically the influence of age group and CBT on glandular content rate. The mean glandular content rate as estimated by age group was as follows: 35.6% for those in their 20s, 33.4% in the 30s, 27.5% in the 40s, 23.8% in the 50s, and 21.8% in those 60 and over. The rate for the subjects as a whole was 27.1%. This study indicated that overestimation occurred if the estimated value of the glandular content rate was not corrected in the 3D-measurement by MRI. In addition, this study showed that the statistical influence on glandular content rate was significantly larger for CBT than age. (author)

Evidence-based estimate of appropriate radiotherapy utilization rate for prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foroudi, Farshad; Tyldesley, Scott; Barbera, Lisa; Huang, Jenny; Mackillop, William J.

2003-01-01

Purpose: Current estimates of the proportion of cancer patients who will require radiotherapy (RT) are based almost entirely on expert opinion. The objective of this study was to use an evidence-based approach to estimate the proportion of incident cases of prostate cancer that should receive RT at any point in the evolution of the illness. Methods and Materials: A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to identify indications for RT for prostate cancer and to ascertain the level of evidence that supported each indication. An epidemiologic approach was then used to estimate the incidence of each indication for RT in a typical North American population of prostate cancer patients. The effect of sampling error on the estimated appropriate rate of RT was calculated mathematically, and the effect of systematic error using alternative sources of information was estimated by sensitivity analysis. Results: It was estimated that 61.2% ±5.6% of prostate cancer cases develop one or more indications for RT at some point in the course of the illness. The plausible range for this rate was 57.3%-69.8% on sensitivity analysis. Of all prostate cancer patients, 32.2%±3.8% should receive RT in their initial treatment and 29.0% ± 4.1% later for recurrence or progression. The proportion of cases that ever require RT is risk grouping dependent; 43.9%±2.2% in low-risk disease, 68.7%± .5% in intermediate-risk disease; and 79.0% ± 3.8% in high-risk locoregional disease. For metastatic disease, the predicted rate was 66.4%±0.3%. Conclusion: This method provides a rational starting point for the long-term planning of radiation services and for the audit of access to RT at the population level. By completing such evaluations in major cancer sites, it will be possible to estimate the appropriate RT rate for the cancer population as a whole

Common cause failure rate estimates for diesel generators in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steverson, J.A.; Atwood, C.L.

1982-01-01

Common cause fault rates for diesel generators in nuclear power plants are estimated, using Licensee Event Reports for the years 1976 through 1978. The binomial failure rate method, used for obtaining the estimates, is briefly explained. Issues discussed include correct classification of common cause events, grouping of the events into homogeneous data subsets, and dealing with plant-to-plant variation

A Pulse Rate Estimation Algorithm Using PPG and Smartphone Camera.

Science.gov (United States)

Siddiqui, Sarah Ali; Zhang, Yuan; Feng, Zhiquan; Kos, Anton

2016-05-01

The ubiquitous use and advancement in built-in smartphone sensors and the development in big data processing have been beneficial in several fields including healthcare. Among the basic vitals monitoring, pulse rate monitoring is the most important healthcare necessity. A multimedia video stream data acquired by built-in smartphone camera can be used to estimate it. In this paper, an algorithm that uses only smartphone camera as a sensor to estimate pulse rate using PhotoPlethysmograph (PPG) signals is proposed. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm are compared with the actual pulse rate and the maximum error found is 3 beats per minute. The standard deviation in percentage error and percentage accuracy is found to be 0.68 % whereas the average percentage error and percentage accuracy is found to be 1.98 % and 98.02 % respectively.

Incidence and prevalence of psoriatic arthritis in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Egeberg, Alexander; Kristensen, Lars Erik; Thyssen, Jacob P.

2017-01-01

Objectives: To examine the incidence and temporal trends of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in the general population in Denmark. Methods: Using nationwide registry data, we estimated the number of patients with incident PsA within each 1-year period between 1997 and 2011 and calculated the rate of PsA...... cases within gender and age subgroups. Incidence rates were presented per 100 000 person-years. Results: There was a female predominance ranging from 50.3% (1998) to 59.2% (2010), and the mean age at time of diagnosis was 47-50 years. We identified a total of 12 719 patients with PsA (prevalence=0.......22%), including 9034 patients where the PsA diagnosis was made by a rheumatologist (prevalence=0.16%). Incidence rates of PsA (per 100 000 person-years) increased from 7.3 in 1997 to a peak incidence of 27.3 in 2010. Incidence rates were highest for women and patients aged 50-59 years, respectively. The use...

Estimation of Leak Rate Through Cracks in Bimaterial Pipes in Nuclear Power Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jai Hak Park

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The accurate estimation of leak rate through cracks is crucial in applying the leak before break (LBB concept to pipeline design in nuclear power plants. Because of its importance, several programs were developed based on the several proposed flow models, and used in nuclear power industries. As the flow models were developed for a homogeneous pipe material, however, some difficulties were encountered in estimating leak rates for bimaterial pipes. In this paper, a flow model is proposed to estimate leak rate in bimaterial pipes based on the modified Henry–Fauske flow model. In the new flow model, different crack morphology parameters can be considered in two parts of a flow path. In addition, based on the proposed flow model, a program was developed to estimate leak rate for a crack with linearly varying cross-sectional area. Using the program, leak rates were calculated for through-thickness cracks with constant or linearly varying cross-sectional areas in a bimaterial pipe. The leak rate results were then compared and discussed in comparison with the results for a homogeneous pipe. The effects of the crack morphology parameters and the variation in cross-sectional area on the leak rate were examined and discussed.

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Anne

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". Methods Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25–64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as US$ per capita per year. Results 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%. Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg or treatment of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (≥6.2 mmol/l; 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (2 and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to US $45.6, i.e. $11.2 for high blood pressure, $3.8 for diabetes, and $30.6 for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia. Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to $22.6. Conclusion High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

[Overweight and obesity prevalence estimates in a population from Zaragoza by using different growth references].

Science.gov (United States)

Lasarte-Velillas, J J; Hernández-Aguilar, M T; Martínez-Boyero, T; Soria-Cabeza, G; Soria-Ruiz, D; Bastarós-García, J C; Gil-Hernández, I; Pastor-Arilla, C; Lasarte-Sanz, I

2015-03-01

To investigate the prevalence of overweight and obesity among our pediatric population and observe whether the use of different growth references for classification produce significant differences. A total of 35824 boys and girls aged between 2 and 14 years were included. Body mass index (BMI) was used to calculate the prevalence of overweight-obesity by age and sex. Prevalence was obtained by using a set of national references (Hernández's standards) and the references of World Health Organization (WHO standards). Prevalences were compared for each age and sex subset, as well as with the percentage of patients who had an overweight-obesity diagnosis in the clinical record. The overall prevalence of overweight-obesity among children aged 2 to 14 years was 17.0% (95% CI; 16.1%-18.0%) according to the Hernández standards vs 30.8% (95% CI; 29.9%-31.7%) according to WHO standards (10.1% vs 12.2% obese, and 6.9% vs 18.6% overweight). It was significantly higher in boys, by both standards, due to the higher prevalence of obesity. By using the Hernández standards the prevalence was significantly lower than by using WHO standards for all ages and for both sexes. A low percentage of patients were found to have an obesity-overweight diagnosis in the clinical record (from 3% to 22% at the ages of 2 and 14 years, respectively). The prevalence of overweight-obesity in our population is high, especially among boys. Using Hernández standards leads to an under-estimation of the problem, especially because it detects less overweight patients, thus we recommend using the WHO standards in our daily practice. The low number of overweight-obesity diagnoses in the clinical records might reflect that there is little awareness of the problem by the professionals. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Statewide prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis and rate of adrenaline autoinjector activation in Victorian government schools, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Loke, Paxton; Koplin, Jennifer; Beck, Cara; Field, Michael; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Tang, Mimi L K; Allen, Katrina J

2016-08-01

The prevalence of school students at risk of anaphylaxis in Victoria is unknown and has not been previously studied. Similarly, rates of adrenaline autoinjector usage in the school environment have yet to be determined given increasing prescription rates. We sought to determine time trends in prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis across all year levels and the annual usage rate of adrenaline autoinjectors in the school setting relative to the number of students at risk of anaphylaxis. Statewide surveys from more than 1,500 government schools including more than 550,000 students were used and prevalence rates (%) with 95% CIs were calculated. The overall prevalence of students at risk of anaphylaxis has increased 41% from 0.98% (95% CI, 0.95-1.01) in 2009 to 1.38% (95% CI, 1.35-1.41) in 2014. There was a significant drop in reporting of anaphylaxis risk with transition from the final year of primary school to the first year of secondary school, suggesting a change in parental reporting of anaphylaxis risk among secondary school students. The number of adrenaline autoinjectors activated per 1000 students at risk of anaphylaxis ranged from 6 to 8 per year, with consistently higher activation use in secondary school students than in primary school students. Statewide prevalence of anaphylaxis risk has increased in children attending Victorian government schools. However, adrenaline autoinjector activation has remained fairly stable despite known increase in the rates of prescription. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fast Rate Estimation for RDO Mode Decision in HEVC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maxim P. Sharabayko

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The latter-day H.265/HEVC video compression standard is able to provide two-times higher compression efficiency compared to the current industrial standard, H.264/AVC. However, coding complexity also increased. The main bottleneck of the compression process is the rate-distortion optimization (RDO stage, as it involves numerous sequential syntax-based binary arithmetic coding (SBAC loops. In this paper, we present an entropy-based RDO estimation technique for H.265/HEVC compression, instead of the common approach based on the SBAC. Our RDO implementation reduces RDO complexity, providing an average bit rate overhead of 1.54%. At the same time, elimination of the SBAC from the RDO estimation reduces block interdependencies, thus providing an opportunity for the development of the compression system with parallel processing of multiple blocks of a video frame.

Prevalence of multimorbidity in medical inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Florian; Kaplan, Vladimir; Rodak, Roksana; Battegay, Edouard; Holzer, Barbara

2012-03-09

To validate the estimates of the prevalence of multimorbidity based on administrative hospital discharge data, with medical records and chart reviews as benchmarks. Retrospective cohort study. Medical division of a tertiary care teaching hospital. A total of 170 medical inpatients admitted from the emergency unit in January 2009. The prevalence of multimorbidity for three different definitions (≥2 diagnoses, ≥2 diagnoses from different ICD-10 chapters, and ≥2 medical conditions as defined by Charlson/Deyo) and three different data sources (administrative data, chart reviews, and medical records). The prevalence of multimorbidity in medical inpatients derived from administrative data, chart reviews and medical records was very high and concurred for the different definitions of multimorbidity (≥2 diagnoses: 96.5%, 95.3%, and 92.9% [p = 0.32], ≥2 diagnoses from different ICD-10 chapters: 86.5%, 90.0%, and 85.9% [p = 0.46], and ≥2 medical conditions as defined by Charlson/Deyo: 48.2%, 50.0%, and 46.5% [p = 0.81]). The agreement of rating of multimorbidity for administrative data and chart reviews and administrative data and medical records was 94.1% and 93.0% (kappa statistics 0.47) for ≥2 diagnoses; 86.0% and 86.5% (kappa statistics 0.52) for ≥2 diagnoses from different ICD-10 chapters; and 82.9% and 85.3% (kappa statistics 0.69) for ≥2 medical conditions as defined by Charlson/Deyo. Estimates of the prevalence of multimorbidity in medical inpatients based on administrative data, chart reviews and medical records were very high and congruent for the different definitions of multimorbidity. Agreement for rating multimorbidity based on the different data sources was moderate to good. Administrative hospital discharge data are a valid source for exploring the burden of multimorbidity in hospital settings.

Prevalence of Latent Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Infection (LTBI) in Saudi Arabia; Population based survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Balkhy, Hanan H; El Beltagy, Kamel; El-Saed, Aiman; Aljasir, Badr; Althaqafi, Abdulhakeem; Alothman, Adel F; Alshalaan, Mohammad; Al-Jahdali, Hamdan

2017-07-01

The annual risk of tuberculosis infection (ARTI) data in Saudi Arabia has not been updated since 1993. To estimate the prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) and ARTI in a population-based sample in Saudi Arabia using Tuberculin skin test (TST) and QuantiFERON TB Gold in tube (QFT-GIT) test. A population-based cross sectional study was conducted between July 2010 and March 2013. Participants were randomly selected from the population served by the primary healthcare centers of the Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs in Riyadh, Jeddah, Alhassa and Dammam, Saudi Arabia. A total of 1369 participants were included. The overall prevalence of LTBI was similar using TST and QFT-GIT (9.3% and 9.1% respectively, p=0.872) but stratified prevalence rates were variable in all sociodemographic groups except marital status. Additionally, the prevalence rates of LTBI using either test alone showed significant differences by several sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics. The overall ARTI was 0.36% using TST and 0.35% using QFT-GIT. We are reporting much lower estimates for the prevalence of LTBI and the ARTI in a population-based sample in Saudi Arabia relative to the data that have been used for more than two decades. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.