WorldWideScience

Sample records for preliminary risk assessments

  1. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

    1985-05-01

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

  2. Preliminary risk assessment of Power Plant Plomin site contaminated by radioactive slag and ash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Sinka, D.; Lokner, V.; Schaller, A.

    1996-01-01

    There is a certain number of radioactively contaminated sites in the Republic of Croatia, one of them being known as Power Plant Plomin site, which contains radioactive slag and ash. Due to a relatively high quantity of the deposited material, as well as relatively high population density of the neighbouring area, it is very important to assess the impact of the site on human health and environment. Using RESRAD computer code and PATHRAE method a preliminary assessment of doses and radiation risks for the workers who spend most of their working day at the pile has been performed. PATHRAE method has also been used for the assessment of radiation risks for the neighbouring population. The assessment is preliminary in its character due to the lack of input data. On the basis of assessment results, recommendations are being given comprising measurements to be taken with a view to coming up with the final risk assessment, as well as protective measures which should be undertaken in the meantime. (author)

  3. Preliminary risk assessment database and risk ranking of pharmaceuticals in the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Emily R.; Siewicki, Thomas C.; Phillips, Karl

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing concern about pharmaceuticals entering surface waters and the impacts these compounds may have on aquatic organisms. Many contaminants, including pharmaceuticals, are not completely removed by wastewater treatment. Discharge of effluent into surface waters results in chronic low-concentration exposure of aquatic organisms to these compounds, with unknown impacts. Exposure of virulent bacteria in wastewater to antibiotic residues may also induce resistance, which could threaten human health. The purpose of this study was to provide information on pharmaceutical threats to the environment. A preliminary risk assessment database for common pharmaceuticals was created and put into a web-accessible database named 'Pharmaceuticals in the Environment, Information for Assessing Risk' (PEIAR) to help others evaluate potential risks of pharmaceutical contaminants in the environment. Information from PEIAR was used to prioritize compounds that may threaten the environment, with a focus on marine and estuarine environments. The pharmaceuticals were ranked using five different combinations of physical-chemical and toxicological data, which emphasized different risks. The results of the ranking methods differed in the compounds identified as high risk; however, drugs from the central nervous system, cardiovascular, and anti-infective classes were heavily represented within the top 100 drugs in all rankings. Anti-infectives may pose the greatest overall risk based upon our results using a combination of factors that measure environmental transport, fate, and aquatic toxicity. The dataset is also useful for highlighting information that is still needed to assuredly assess risk

  4. 76 FR 52945 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-24

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OPP-2008-0850; FRL-8886-6] Chlorpyrifos Registration... chlorpyrifos registration review; preliminary human health risk assessment. This document extends the comment... . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This document extends the public comment period for the chlorpyrifos reregistration...

  5. Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-10-01

    The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft{sup 2} grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants.

  6. Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-01-01

    The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft 2 grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants

  7. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  8. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space. Volume I. Executive summary of technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, E.E.; Denning, R.S.; Friedlander, A.L.

    1982-01-01

    Three major conclusions come from this preliminary risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal in space. Preliminary estimates of space disposal risk are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated mined geologic repository (MGR) release risks remain low, and the EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort is warranted. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as an MGR complement is warranted. As a result of this study, the following recommendations are made to NASA and the US DOE: During the continued evaluation of the mined geologic repository risk over the years ahead by DOE, if any significant increase in the calculated health risk is predicted for the MGR, then space disposal should be reevaluated at that time. The risks perceived by the public for the MGR should be evaluated on a broad basis by an independent organization to evaluate acceptance. If, in the future, MGR risks are found to be significant due to some presently unknown technical or social factor, and space disposal is selected as an alternative that may be useful in mitigating the risks, then the following space disposal study activities are recommended: improvement in chemical processing technology for wastes; payload accident response analysis; risk uncertainty analysis for both MGR and space disposal; health risk modeling that includes pathway and dose estimates; space disposal cost modeling; assessment of space disposal perceived (by public) risk benefit; and space systems analysis supporting risk and cost modeling

  9. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, Brandon Road Lock and Dam Invasive Species Control Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Decision makers must include control-measure monitoring and emergency “interventions” to insure safety. The Coast Guard operational commanders...system” incorporates a travelling car on a rail above the barge-loading wharf to prevent loading personnel, cargo surveyors, or others from falling...to the Gulf of Mexico . As “Loopers”, they will have already transited the CSSC electric barriers. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, BRLD

  10. Preliminary risk assessment of the Integral Inherently-Safe Light Water Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCarroll, Kellen R.; Lee, John C.; Manera, Annalisa; Memmott, Matthew J.; Ferroni, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    The Integral, Inherently Safe Light Water Reactor (I 2 S-LWR) concept seeks to significantly increase nuclear power plant safety. The project implements a safety-by-design philosophy, eliminating several initiating events and providing novel, passive safety systems at the conceptual phase. Pursuit of unparalleled safety employs an integrated development process linking design with deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses. Unique aspects of the I 2 S-LWR concept and design process present challenges to the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), particularly regarding overall flexibility, auditability and resolution of results. Useful approaches to initiating events and conditional failures are presented. To exemplify the risk-informed design process using PRA, a trade-off study of two safety system configurations is presented. Although further optimization is required, preliminary results indicate that the I 2 S-LWR can achieve a core damage frequency (CDF) from internal events less than 1.01 × 10 −8 /ry, including reactor vessel ruptures. Containment bypass frequency due to primary heat exchanger rupture is found to be comparable to non-vessel rupture CDF.

  11. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  12. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  13. Preliminary risk benefit assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.; Priest, C. C.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes the recent work of the authors on the evaluation of health risk benefits of space disposal of nuclear waste. The paper describes a risk model approach that has been developed to estimate the non-recoverable, cumulative, expected radionuclide release to the earth's biosphere for different options of nuclear waste disposal in space. Risk estimates for the disposal of nuclear waste in a mined geologic repository and the short- and long-term risk estimates for space disposal were developed. The results showed that the preliminary estimates of space disposal risks are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated release risks for mined geologic repositories remain as low as given by the U.S. DOE, and U.S. EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort in the U.S. is warranted at this time. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as a complement to the mined geologic repository is warranted.

  14. Radiological risk assessment of a radioactively contaminated site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devgun, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    A limited-scope preliminary assessment of radiological risk has been conducted at a radioactively contaminated site under current site use conditions and based on the available preliminary radiological characterization data for the site. The assessment provides useful input to the remedial action planning for the site. 8 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  15. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  16. Seasonal occurrence, removal efficiencies and preliminary risk assessment of multiple classes of organic UV filters in wastewater treatment plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, Mirabelle M P; Leung, H W; Lam, Paul K S; Murphy, Margaret B

    2014-04-15

    Organic ultraviolet (UV) filters are applied widely in personal care products (PCPs), but the distribution and risks of these compounds in the marine environment are not well known. In this study, the occurrence and removal efficiencies of 12 organic UV filters in five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) equipped with different treatment levels in Hong Kong, South China, were investigated during one year and a preliminary environmental risk assessment was carried out. Using a newly developed simultaneous multiclass quantification liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method, butyl methoxydibenzoylmethane (BMDM), 2,4-dihydroxybenzophenone (BP-1), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), benzophenone-4 (BP-4) and 2-ethyl-hexyl-4-trimethoxycinnamate (EHMC) were frequently (≥80%) detected in both influent and effluent with mean concentrations ranging from 23 to 1290 ng/L and 18-1018 ng/L, respectively; less than 2% of samples contained levels greater than 1000 ng/L. Higher concentrations of these frequently detected compounds were found during the wet/summer season, except for BP-4, which was the most abundant compound detected in all samples in terms of total mass. The target compounds behaved differently depending on the treatment level in WWTPs; overall, removal efficiencies were greater after secondary treatment when compared to primary treatment with >55% and compounds showing high removal (defined as >70% removal), respectively. Reverse osmosis was found to effectively eliminate UV filters from effluent (>99% removal). A preliminary risk assessment indicated that BP-3 and EHMC discharged from WWTPs may pose high risk to fishes in the local environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Preliminary assessment of the risk linked to furan ingestion by babies consuming only ready-to-eat food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Georges; Humblet, Marie-France; Scippo, Marie-Louise; De Pauw, Edwin; Eppe, Gauthier; Saegerman, Claude

    2013-01-01

    The risk linked to furan ingestion has been assessed in previous papers for Belgian adults and children. The present paper focuses on infants consuming only ready-to-eat baby food. As there is no Belgian baby dietary database, the furan exposure assessment was carried out by using an Italian infant consumption database and Belgian contamination data. The estimated daily intake (EDI) was calculated according to a deterministic methodology. It involved 42 commercially available ready-to-eat baby food and 36 baby consumption records. The mean EDI was 1460 ng*(kg(bw)*day)⁻¹ which is 3.8 times higher than the 381 ng*(kg(bw)*day)⁻¹ reported for Belgian adults, and 3.5 times higher than the 419 ng*(kg(bw)*day)⁻¹ measured for Belgian children. To assess and characterise the risk for babies' exposure, the margin of exposure (MoE) was calculated. It highlighted that 74% of infants have a MoE < 1000, with a minimum of 140. However, these are only preliminary results as they were calculated from a very small dataset and the infant cytochrome P450 activity is significantly different compared with the adult's. Therefore, the risk linked to furan ingestion by babies should be assessed in a different manner. To this end, additional data regarding a baby diet as well as a better understanding of furan toxicity for babies are needed to characterise more accurately the risk for infants.

  18. Qualitative risk assessment as a remediation management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knutson, D.E.

    1991-01-01

    The technique used to complete this thesis utilizes existing NRC and EPA guidance on health-based risk to qualitatively prioritize preliminary assessments and provide a tool for the direction and management of remediation activities. This method is intended as a decision making tool to aid in prioritizing the remediation effort and manage the remedial investigation and feasibility study (RI/FS) process. It is not a replacement for the RI/FS. The methodology for qualitative risk assessment utilizes data gathered in preliminary assessments and calculates the health-based hazards and consequences from contaminants found at each individual location. The health-based qualitative risk indicated that number-sign 6 fuel oil, carbon tetrachloride, depleted uranium, and enriched uranium were the contaminants of major concern, in that order. Plutonium ranked approximately sixth in the contaminant of concern priority. 38 refs., 1 fig., 9 tabs

  19. A preliminary spatial assessment of risk: Marine birds and chronic oil pollution on Canada's Pacific coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, C H; O'Hara, P D; Bertazzon, S; Morgan, K; Underwood, F E; Paquet, P C

    2016-12-15

    Chronic oil pollution poses substantial risks to marine birds and other marine wildlife worldwide. On Canada's Pacific coast, the negative ecological consequences to marine birds and marine ecosystems in general remain poorly understood. Using information relating to oil spill probability of occurrence, areas of overall importance to marine birds, and the at-sea distribution and density of 12 marine bird species and seven bird groups, including multiple Species at Risk, we undertook a spatial assessment of risk. Our results identify two main areas important to marine birds potentially at higher risk of exposure to oil. For individual bird species or species groups, those predicted to have elevated bird densities near the mainland and the northeast coast of Vancouver Island were identified as being at higher potential risk of exposure. Our results, however, should be considered preliminary. As with other anthropogenic stressors, in order to better understand and subsequently mitigate the consequences of chronic oil pollution on marine birds, improved information relating to marine birds and the occurrence of oil spills on Canada's Pacific coast is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Preliminary radiological assessments of near-surface low-level radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumerling, T.J.; Nancarrow, D.J.

    1988-08-01

    This report summarises preliminary assessments of post-closure radiological impact of LLW repositories at four sites previously under investigation by UK Nirex Ltd. The objectives of the assessments were: to demonstrate a methodology for site specific assessments, to identify important information requirements for detailed assessments; to identify methodological and research requirements. Doses and risks due to groundwater pathways, human intrusion, gaseous release and natural environmental change are estimated. (author)

  1. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

  2. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC

  3. Hanford Waste Vitrification Project Building limited scope risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, D.J.; Lindberg, S.E.; Reardon, M.F.; Wilson, G.P.

    1992-10-01

    A limited scope risk assessment was performed on the preliminary design of a high-level waste interim storage facility. The Canister Storage Building (CSB) facility will be built to support remediation at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State. The CSB will be part of the support facilities for a high level Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP). The limited scope risk assessment is based on a preliminary design which uses forced air circulation systems to move air through the building vault. The current building design calls for natural circulation to move air through the building vault

  4. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-01-01

    Often the methodologies for assessing proliferation risk are focused around the inherent vulnerability of nuclear energy systems and associated safeguards. For example an accepted approach involves ways to measure the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to potential proliferation. This paper describes preliminary investigation into non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve proliferation assessment and advance the approach to assessing nuclear material diversion. Proliferation resistance assessment, safeguard assessments and related studies typically create technical information about the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to diversion of nuclear material. The purpose of this research project is to find ways to integrate social information with technical information by explicitly considering the role of culture, groups and/or individuals to factors that impact the possibility of proliferation. When final, this work is expected to describe and demonstrate the utility of social science modeling in proliferation and proliferation risk assessments.

  5. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  6. Preliminary assessment of risk of ozone impacts to maize (Zea mays) in Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Tienhoven, AM

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Surface ozone concentrations in southern Africa exceed air quality guidelines set to protect agricultural crops. This paper addresses a knowledge gap by performing a preliminary assessment of potential ozone impacts on vegetation in southern African...

  7. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzales, G.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Foxx, T.S.; Fresquez, P.R.; Mullen, M.A.; Pratt, L.E.; Gomez, P.E.

    1998-04-01

    The Endangered Species Act of 1973 and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) require that the Department of Energy protect the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), a state and federally listed species, from stressors such as contaminants. A preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle was performed using a custom FORTRAN code, ECORSK5, and the geographical information system. Estimated exposure doses to the eagle for radionuclide, inorganic metal, and organic contaminants were derived for varying ratios of aquatic vs. terrestrial simulated diet and compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (His). HI results indicate that no appreciable impact to the bald eagle is expected from contaminants at LANL from soil ingestion and food consumption pathways. This includes a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes linear additive toxicity. Improving model realism by weighting simulated eagle foraging based on distance from potential roost sites increased the HI by 76%, but still to inconsequential levels. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, eagle habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at low levels.

  8. Economic valuation of acidic deposition damages: Preliminary results from the 1985 NAPAP [National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program] damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, J.M.; Darwin, R.F.; Nesse, R.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper identifies methods used to evaluate the economic damages of acid deposition in the 1985 Damage Assessment being coordinated by the National Acid Precipitation Program. It also presents the preliminary estimates of economic damages for the Assessment. Economic damages are estimated for four effect areas: commercial agriculture and forests, recreational fishing and selected types of materials. In all but the last area, methods are used which incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and firms or simulated physical damages to resources at risk. The preliminary nature of the estimated damages in each area is emphasized. Over all, the damage estimates should be interpreted with caution. 44 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  9. Development and preliminary validation of the Opioid Abuse Risk Screener

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Henrie-Barrus

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Prescription opioid drug abuse has reached epidemic proportions. Individuals with chronic pain represent a large population at considerable risk of abusing opioids. The Opioid Abuse Risk Screener was developed as a comprehensive self-administered measure of potential risk that includes a wide range of critical elements noted in the literature to be relevant to opioid risk. The creation, refinement, and preliminary modeling of the item pool, establishment of preliminary concurrent validity, and the determination of the factor structure are presented. The initial development and validation of the Opioid Abuse Risk Screener shows promise for effective risk stratification.

  10. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs

  11. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  12. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  13. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  14. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  15. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  16. Preliminary assessments the shortcut to remediation (category III-surplus facility assessments)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byars, L.L.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents the details of the preliminary assessments for the shortcut of decontamination of surplus nuclear facilities. Topics discussed include: environment, health and safety concerns; economic considerations; reduction of transition time; preliminary characterization reports; preliminary project plan; health and safety plan; quality assurance plan; surveillance and maintenance plan; and waste management plan

  17. Risk assessment guidance document for the UMTRA project groundwater remediation phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-05-01

    The purpose of the groundwater remedial activities at the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) sites is to reduce, control, or eliminate risks to human health and the environment. This is in accordance with Subpart B of 40 CFR 192. According to this regulation, the need for groundwater restoration is based upon US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-defined groundwater cleanup standards and must be consistent with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process. Risk assessments will be used in the UMTRA Groundwater Program to aid in the evaluation of sites. Risk assessments are conducted for four purposes: (1) Preliminary risk assessments are used to aid in prioritizing sites, scope data collection, end determine if a site presents immediate health risks. (2) Baseline risk assessments provide a comprehensive integration and interpretation of demographic, geographic, physical, chemical, and biological factors at a site to determine the extent of actual or potential harm. This information Is used to determine the need for remedial action. (3) Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives is performed to evaluate risks to humans or the environment associated with the various remedial strategies. (4) After remediation, an evaluation of residual risks is conducted. The information gathered for each of these risk evaluations is used to determine the need for subsequent evaluation. Several sites may be eliminated after a preliminary risk assessment if there is no current or future threat to humans or the environment. Likewise, much of the data from a baseline risk assessment can be used to support alternate concentration limits or supplemental standards demonstrations, or identify sensitive habitats or receptors that may be of concern in selecting a remedy

  18. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

    2015-01-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  19. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  20. The challenges of risk society for impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2017-01-01

    , the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out......This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothe- sis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely...... a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate...

  1. Bilateral mammographic density asymmetry and breast cancer risk: A preliminary assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheng, Bin, E-mail: zhengb@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Sumkin, Jules H., E-mail: jsumkin@mail.magee.edu [Department of Radiology, Magee Womens Hospital, 300 Halket Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Zuley, Margarita L., E-mail: zuleyml@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, Magee Womens Hospital, 300 Halket Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Wang, Xingwei, E-mail: wangx6@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Klym, Amy H., E-mail: klymah@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Gur, David, E-mail: gurd@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States)

    2012-11-15

    To improve efficacy of breast cancer screening and prevention programs, it requires a risk assessment model with high discriminatory power. This study aimed to assess classification performance of using computed bilateral mammographic density asymmetry to predict risk of individual women developing breast cancer in near-term. The database includes 451 cases with multiple screening mammography examinations. The first (baseline) examinations of all case were interpreted negative. In the next sequential examinations, 187 cases developed cancer or surgically excised high-risk lesions, 155 remained negative (not-recalled), and 109 were recalled benign cases. From each of two bilateral cranio-caudal view images acquired from the baseline examination, we computed two features of average pixel value and local pixel value fluctuation. We then computed mean and difference of each feature computed from two images. When applying the computed features and other two risk factors (woman's age and subjectively rated mammographic density) to predict risk of cancer development, areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were computed to evaluate the discriminatory/classification performance. The AUCs are 0.633 {+-} 0.030, 0.535 {+-} 0.036, 0.567 {+-} 0.031, and 0.719 {+-} 0.027 when using woman's age, subjectively rated, computed mean and asymmetry of mammographic density, to classify between two groups of cancer-verified and negative cases, respectively. When using an equal-weighted fusion method to combine woman's age and computed density asymmetry, AUC increased to 0.761 {+-} 0.025 (p < 0.05). The study demonstrated that bilateral mammographic density asymmetry could be a significantly stronger risk factor associated to the risk of women developing breast cancer in near-term than woman's age and assessed mean mammographic density.

  2. Bilateral mammographic density asymmetry and breast cancer risk: A preliminary assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Bin; Sumkin, Jules H.; Zuley, Margarita L.; Wang, Xingwei; Klym, Amy H.; Gur, David

    2012-01-01

    To improve efficacy of breast cancer screening and prevention programs, it requires a risk assessment model with high discriminatory power. This study aimed to assess classification performance of using computed bilateral mammographic density asymmetry to predict risk of individual women developing breast cancer in near-term. The database includes 451 cases with multiple screening mammography examinations. The first (baseline) examinations of all case were interpreted negative. In the next sequential examinations, 187 cases developed cancer or surgically excised high-risk lesions, 155 remained negative (not-recalled), and 109 were recalled benign cases. From each of two bilateral cranio-caudal view images acquired from the baseline examination, we computed two features of average pixel value and local pixel value fluctuation. We then computed mean and difference of each feature computed from two images. When applying the computed features and other two risk factors (woman's age and subjectively rated mammographic density) to predict risk of cancer development, areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were computed to evaluate the discriminatory/classification performance. The AUCs are 0.633 ± 0.030, 0.535 ± 0.036, 0.567 ± 0.031, and 0.719 ± 0.027 when using woman's age, subjectively rated, computed mean and asymmetry of mammographic density, to classify between two groups of cancer-verified and negative cases, respectively. When using an equal-weighted fusion method to combine woman's age and computed density asymmetry, AUC increased to 0.761 ± 0.025 (p < 0.05). The study demonstrated that bilateral mammographic density asymmetry could be a significantly stronger risk factor associated to the risk of women developing breast cancer in near-term than woman's age and assessed mean mammographic density.

  3. Risk assessment of nonhazardous oil-field waste disposal in salt caverns.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elcock, D.

    1998-03-05

    In 1996, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted a preliminary technical and legal evaluation of disposing of nonhazardous oil-field wastes (NOW) into salt caverns. Argonne determined that if caverns are sited and designed well, operated carefully, closed properly, and monitored routinely, they could be suitable for disposing of oil-field wastes. On the basis of these findings, Argonne subsequently conducted a preliminary evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from the NOW disposed of in domal salt caverns. Steps used in this evaluation included the following: identifying potential contaminants of concern, determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants, assessing contaminant toxicities, estimating contaminant intakes, and calculating human cancer and noncancer risk estimates. Five postclosure cavern release scenarios were assessed. These were inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks, failure of the cavern through leaky interbeds, and a partial collapse of the cavern roof. Assuming a single, generic, salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, potential human health effects associated with constituent hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) were assessed under each of these scenarios. Preliminary results provided excess cancer risk and hazard index (referring to noncancer health effects) estimates that were well within the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) target range for acceptable exposure risk levels. These results led to the preliminary conclusion that from a human health perspective, salt caverns can provide an acceptable disposal method for nonhazardous oil-field wastes.

  4. Risk assessment of nonhazardous oil-field waste disposal in salt caverns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elcock, D.

    1998-01-01

    In 1996, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted a preliminary technical and legal evaluation of disposing of nonhazardous oil-field wastes (NOW) into salt caverns. Argonne determined that if caverns are sited and designed well, operated carefully, closed properly, and monitored routinely, they could be suitable for disposing of oil-field wastes. On the basis of these findings, Argonne subsequently conducted a preliminary evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from the NOW disposed of in domal salt caverns. Steps used in this evaluation included the following: identifying potential contaminants of concern, determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants, assessing contaminant toxicities, estimating contaminant intakes, and calculating human cancer and noncancer risk estimates. Five postclosure cavern release scenarios were assessed. These were inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks, failure of the cavern through leaky interbeds, and a partial collapse of the cavern roof. Assuming a single, generic, salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, potential human health effects associated with constituent hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) were assessed under each of these scenarios. Preliminary results provided excess cancer risk and hazard index (referring to noncancer health effects) estimates that were well within the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) target range for acceptable exposure risk levels. These results led to the preliminary conclusion that from a human health perspective, salt caverns can provide an acceptable disposal method for nonhazardous oil-field wastes

  5. Concepts in critical thinking applied to caries risk assessment in dental education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman-Armstrong, Sandra; Warren, John J; Cunningham-Ford, Marsha A; von Bergmann, HsingChi; Johnsen, David C

    2014-06-01

    Much progress has been made in the science of caries risk assessment and ways to analyze caries risk, yet dental education has seen little movement toward the development of frameworks to guide learning and assess critical thinking in caries risk assessment. In the absence of previous proactive implementation of a learning framework that takes the knowledge of caries risk and critically applies it to the patient with the succinctness demanded in the clinical setting, the purpose of this study was to develop a model learning framework that combines the science of caries risk assessment with principles of critical thinking from the education literature. This article also describes the implementation of that model at one dental school and presents some preliminary assessment data.

  6. Radiological risk assessment for radioactive contamination at landfill site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devgun, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    A limited-scope preliminary assessment of radiological risk has been conducted for a landfill site where radioactive residues resulting from past uranium ore processing operations are present. Potential radiation doses to an individual under different scenarios have been predicted using the RESRAD computer code. The assessment provides useful input to the remedial action planning for the site that is currently underway. 7 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  7. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis; Volume 2, Figures [and] Volume 3, Technical Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R. [Nevada Univ., Las Vegas, NV (United States). Transportation Research Center

    1991-05-31

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history.

  8. Knowledge loss risk assessment in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti, Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostol, Minodora; Constantin, Marin; Balaceanu, Victoria

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a method developed in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti for knowledge loss risk assessment in nuclear sector, in order to obtain a risk map at departmental and organizational level, by analyzing each position/people. The method starts from the classical method for knowledge loss risk assessment but takes into account the INR characteristics, the particularities of Romanian nuclear market and the difficulties of the classical method to estimate correctly the risk at the job level. A short description of the classical method of knowledge loss risk assessment, the improved method by introducing five new parameters for risk factor of vacant job are presented, how this last method has been applied in some departments from INR Pitesti and the preliminary risk matrix for knowledge loss at organization level is discussed. (authors)

  9. Preliminary environmental site assessments in New York City

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundy, P.; Gasson, D.R.; Longendyke, S.T.

    1991-01-01

    Preliminary Environmental Site Assessments are often performed prior to real estate transactions or refinancing. These assessments are typically performed for real estate buyers, sellers and lending institutions. Undertaking a Preliminary Environmental Site Assessment in New York City can often be quite complex and time-consuming. This is due, in part, to the age and density of buildings in the city as well as the myriad of regulatory agencies with jurisdiction over environmental issues. This paper will discuss how environmental assessments are performed with a special emphasis on building in New York City. In includes hazardous wastes management for Radon, PCB's and asbestos

  10. Dose-stress synergism in cancer risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pop-Jordanova, N.; Pop-Jordanov, J.

    2001-01-01

    Our hypothesis is that the relatively low risk of cancer or leukaemia from depleted uranium, as predicted by the World Health Organization and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a result of neglecting the synergism between physico-chemical agents and psychological stress agents (here shortly denoted as dose-stress synergism). We use the modified risk assessment model that comprises a psycho-somatic extension, originally developed by us for assessing the risks of energy sources. Our preliminary meta-analysis of animal and human studies on cancers confirmed the existence of stress effects, including the amplifying synergism. Consequently, the psychological stress can increase the probability of even small toxic chemical or ionizing radiation exposure to produce malignancy. Such dose-stress synergism might influence the health risks among military personnel and the residents in the highly stressful environment in the Balkans. Further investigation is needed to estimate the order of magnitude of these combined effects in particular circumstances. (Original)

  11. A preliminary assessment of the potential risks from electrical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... Grey-crowned Crane Balearica regulorum, Lesser Flamingo Phoeniconaias minor, White-backed Vulture Gyps africanus, Rüppell's Vulture Gyps rueppellii, Martial Eagle Polemaetus bellicosus, White Stork Ciconia ciconia, Secretarybird Sagittarius serpentarius, and various sit-and-wait raptors. These preliminary findings ...

  12. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  13. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  14. Comments on SKB's SFL 3-5 preliminary performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Crawford, M.B.

    2000-01-01

    Recently introduced regulations in Sweden have established an individual risk criterion ( -6 per year) for the long-term performance of repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. SKB has not focused its assessment of SFL 3-5 on demonstrating compliance with this regulation. Instead, SKB has calculated individual dose and provided a comparison with an annual individual dose of 14 iSv (derived from the risk criteria using the ICRP's dose-risk conversion factor of 0.073 per Sv). The justification of this approach is that probabilities do not need to be determined if doses are less than the dose equivalent to the risk criterion. However, there is insufficient information regarding uncertainty provided in the documentation of the SFL 3-5 assessment to determine whether this approach is reasonable. SKB's parallel assessment of a repository for spent fuel using the KBS-3 concept (SR 97) accounts for uncertainty by specifying a 'reasonable' and a 'pessimistic' value for uncertain parameters in the assessment calculations. Although there are problems with the way probabilities have been assigned to these values, this approach does indicate where there are significant uncertainties. The SFL 3-5 PA does not include a structured approach to defining uncertainty, although a number of assumptions and parameter values are stated to be conservative. As a preliminary assessment, there is insufficient information to identify key uncertainties or sensitivities, or to determine where further work should be focused. Any assessment requires the use of expert judgement to determine how the assessment is conducted, what modelling approach to use, what features, events and processes (FEPs) could potentially affect the disposal system, which FEPs should be included in the conceptual models, and which scenarios should be assessed. Judgements are also required in determining how to parameterize the models, and this may extend to formal expert elicitation for particular parameter

  15. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

  16. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species

  17. Fractionation distribution and preliminary ecological risk assessment of As, Hg and Cd in ornithogenic sediments from the Ross Sea region, East Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lou, Chuangneng [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Liu, Xiaodong, E-mail: ycx@ustc.edu.cn [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Nie, Yaguang [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Emslie, Steven D. [Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, 601S. College Road, Wilmington, NC 28403 (United States)

    2015-12-15

    To evaluate mobility of toxic elements and their potential ecological risk caused by seabird biovectors, the fractionation distributions of arsenic (As), mercury (Hg) and cadmium (Cd) were investigated in three ornithogenic sediment profiles from the Ross Sea region, East Antarctica. The results show residual As holds a dominant position, and Hg mainly derives from residual, organic matter-bound and humic acid-bound fractions, indicating weak mobility of As and Hg. However, exchangeable Cd occupies a considerable proportion in studied samples, suggesting Cd has strong mobility. The preliminary evaluation of Sediment Quality Guidelines (SGQs) shows adverse biological effects may occur occasionally for As and Cd, and rarely for Hg. Using Risk Assessment Code (RAC), the ecological risk is assessed at moderate, low and very high for As, Hg and Cd pollution, respectively. Organic matter derived from guano is the main factor controlling the mobility of Hg and Cd through adsorption and complexation. - Highlights: • Residual As holds a dominant position in ornithogenic sediments. • Hg mainly derives from residual, organic matter-bound and humic acid-bound fractions. • Exchangeable Cd occupies a considerable proportion in ornithogenic sediments. • TOC is the main factor controlling the mobility of Hg and Cd in studied sediments.

  18. Preliminary regulatory assessment of nuclear power plants vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, V.; Petelin, S.

    2004-01-01

    Preliminary attempts to develop models for nuclear regulatory vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants are presented. Development of the philosophy and computer tools could be new and important insight for management of nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies who face difficult questions about how to assess the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities to external and internal threats. In the situation where different and hidden threat sources are dispersed throughout the world, the assessment of security and safe operation of nuclear power plants is very important. Capability to evaluate plant vulnerability to different kinds of threats, like human and natural occurrences and terrorist attacks and preparation of emergency response plans and estimation of costs are of vital importance for assurance of national security. On the basis of such vital insights, nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies could plan and optimise changes in oversight procedures, organisations, equipment, hardware and software to reduce risks taking into account security and safety of nuclear power plants operation, budget, manpower, and other limitations. Initial qualitative estimations of adapted assessments for nuclear applications are shortly presented. (author)

  19. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  20. N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

  1. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the American peregrine falcon at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (version 1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.

    1997-06-01

    The Endangered Species Act and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory require protection of the American peregrine falcon. A preliminary risk assessment of the peregrine was performed using a custom FORTRAN model and a geographical information system. Estimated doses to the falcon were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices. Hazard index results indicated no unacceptable risk to the falcon from the soil ingestion pathway, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. Scaling home ranges on the basis of maximizing falcon height for viewing prey decreased estimated risk by 69% in a canyons-based home range and increased estimated risk by 40% in a river-based home range. Improving model realism by weighting simulated falcon foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased risk by 93% in one exposure unit and by 82% in a second exposure unit. It was demonstrated that choice of toxicity reference values can have a substantial impact on risk estimates. Adding bioaccumulation factors for several organics increased partial hazard quotients by a factor of 110, but increased the mean hazard index by only 0.02 units. Adding a food consumption exposure pathway in the form of biomagnification factors for 15 contaminants of potential ecological concern increased the mean hazard index to 1.16 (± 1.0), which is above the level of acceptability (1.0). Aroclor-1254, dichlorodiphenyltrichlorethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenylethelyne (DDE) accounted for 81% of the estimated risk that includes soil ingestion and food consumption Contaminant pathways and a biomagnification component. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, falcon habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations. 123 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

  2. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the American peregrine falcon at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (version 1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D. [and others

    1997-06-01

    The Endangered Species Act and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory require protection of the American peregrine falcon. A preliminary risk assessment of the peregrine was performed using a custom FORTRAN model and a geographical information system. Estimated doses to the falcon were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices. Hazard index results indicated no unacceptable risk to the falcon from the soil ingestion pathway, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. Scaling home ranges on the basis of maximizing falcon height for viewing prey decreased estimated risk by 69% in a canyons-based home range and increased estimated risk by 40% in a river-based home range. Improving model realism by weighting simulated falcon foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased risk by 93% in one exposure unit and by 82% in a second exposure unit. It was demonstrated that choice of toxicity reference values can have a substantial impact on risk estimates. Adding bioaccumulation factors for several organics increased partial hazard quotients by a factor of 110, but increased the mean hazard index by only 0.02 units. Adding a food consumption exposure pathway in the form of biomagnification factors for 15 contaminants of potential ecological concern increased the mean hazard index to 1.16 ({+-} 1.0), which is above the level of acceptability (1.0). Aroclor-1254, dichlorodiphenyltrichlorethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenylethelyne (DDE) accounted for 81% of the estimated risk that includes soil ingestion and food consumption Contaminant pathways and a biomagnification component. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, falcon habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations. 123 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Assessment of risks and costs associated with transportation of US Department of Energy radioactively contaminated carbon steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.-Y.; Arnish, J.J.; Nieves, L.A.; Folga, S.M.

    1996-09-01

    This report provides a preliminary assessment of potential human health risks and develops unit risks and costs for transporting radioactively contaminated carbon steel (RCCS) scrap between U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The RCCS would be generated from DOE activities (current or future) and from decontamination and decommissioning of DOE facilities. The estimates of transportation system risk reflect preliminary information regarding the quantities of RCCS at some sites and the spectrum of activity in RCCS at various types of DOE facilities

  4. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  5. 75 FR 1770 - An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-13

    ... qualitative aspects of the risk assessment because of the type of genomic data available for DBP. It is... Assessment (NCEA) within EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). Toxicogenomics is the application of... exploratory methods for analyzing genomic data for application to risk assessment and some preliminary results...

  6. EPA Releases Neonicotinoid Assessments for Public Comment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Release of preliminary ecological and human health risk assessments for the neonicotinoid insecticides clothianidin, thiamethoxam, and dinotefuran, and a preliminary ecological risk assessment for imidacloprid, assessing risks to birds,mammals, non-target

  7. Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Pratt, L.E.

    1997-02-01

    The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were compared against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, {sup 239}Pu, Al and {sup 234}U we`re among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels.

  8. Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Pratt, L.E.

    1997-02-01

    The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were compared against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, 239 Pu, Al and 234 U we're among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels

  9. Indoor air quality investigation and health risk assessment at correctional institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofungwu, Joseph

    2005-04-01

    A comprehensive indoor air-quality (IAQ) investigation was conducted at a state correctional facility in New Jersey, USA with a lengthy history of IAQ problems. The IAQ investigation comprised preliminary indoor air screening using direct readout instrumentation, indoor air/surface wipe sampling and laboratory analysis, as well as a heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system evaluation, and a building envelope survey. In addition to air sampling, a human health risk assessment was performed to evaluate the potential for exposure to site-related air contaminants with respect to the inmate and worker populations. The risk assessment results for the prison facility indicated the potential for significant health risks for the inmate population, possibly reflecting the effects of their confinement and extended exposure to indoor air contaminants, as compared to the prison guard and worker population. Based on the results of the risk assessment, several mitigation measures are recommended to minimize prison population health risks and improve indoor air quality at prison facilities.

  10. 78 FR 32231 - Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment, Environmental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-29

    ...] Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment, Environmental Assessment... has prepared a preliminary determination regarding a request from Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc... 340. APHIS received a petition (APHIS Petition Number 11-063-01p) from Pioneer Hi-Bred International...

  11. Distribution and preliminary exposure assessment of bisphenol AF (BPAF) in various environmental matrices around a manufacturing plant in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Shanjun; Ruan, Ting; Wang, Thanh; Liu, Runzeng; Jiang, Guibin

    2012-12-18

    Increasing attention has been paid to bisphenol A and bisphenol (BP) analogues due to high production volumes, wide usage and potential adverse effects. Bisphenol AF (BPAF) is considered a new bisphenol analogue which is used as raw material in plastic industry, but little is known about its occurrence in the environment and the potential associated risk. In this work, BPAF levels and environmental distribution were reported in samples collected around a manufacturing plant and a preliminary exposure risk assessment to local residents was conducted. BPAF was detected in most of the samples, with levels in river ranging between environment and organic carbon was the domain factor during the process. The preliminary BPAF exposure assessment based on the CSOIL model suggested that children could have higher intake of BPAF than adults through inhalation of soils, dermal exposure by soils contact and bathing with well water.

  12. Applying the Msharpp Method in Risk Assessment for the Water Supply Critical Infrastructure Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badea Dorel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights a manner to assess risks for an important sector of critical infrastructure, that of water supply, frequently regulated in international legal systems. We took into consideration the fact that risk is a problem related to the processes of decision making under conditions of uncertainty in most cases, so that by this approach we bring to the attention of critical infrastructure managers, drawing on their experience, a simple method that can be considered in a preliminary stage of risk assessment specific to water supply.

  13. Preliminary safety assessment of the WIPP facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balestri, R.J.; Torres, B.W.; Pahwa, S.B.; Brannen, J.P.

    1979-01-01

    This paper summarizes the efforts to perform a safety assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) facility being proposed for southeastern New Mexico. This preliminary safety assessment is limited to a consequence assessment in terms of the dose to a maximally exposed individual as a result of introducing the radionuclides into the biosphere. The extremely low doses to the organs as a result of the liquid breach scenarios are contrasted with the background radiation

  14. Methodology and a preliminary data base for examining the health risks of electricity generation from uranium and coal fuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Bassioni, A.A.

    1980-08-01

    An analytical model was developed to assess and examine the health effects associated with the production of electricity from uranium and coal fuels. The model is based on a systematic methodology that is both simple and easy to check, and provides details about the various components of health risk. A preliminary set of data that is needed to calculate the health risks was gathered, normalized to the model facilities, and presented in a concise manner. Additional data will become available as a result of other evaluations of both fuel cycles, and they should be included in the data base. An iterative approach involving only a few steps is recommended for validating the model. After each validation step, the model is improved in the areas where new information or increased interest justifies such upgrading. Sensitivity analysis is proposed as the best method of using the model to its full potential. Detailed quantification of the risks associated with the two fuel cycles is not presented in this report. The evaluation of risks from producing electricity by these two methods can be completed only after several steps that address difficult social and technical questions. Preliminary quantitative assessment showed that several factors not considered in detail in previous studies are potentially important. 255 refs., 21 figs., 179 tabs.

  15. Preliminary Mineral Resource Assessment of Selected Mineral Deposit Types in Afghanistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludington, Steve; Orris, Greta J.; Bolm, Karen S.; Peters, Stephen G.; ,

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Wise decision-making and management of natural resources depend upon credible and reliable scientific information about the occurrence, distribution, quantity and quality of a country's resource base. Economic development decisions by governments require such information to be part of a Mineral Resource Assessment. Such Mineral Assessments are also useful to private citizens and international investors, consultants, and companies prior to entry and investment in a country. Assessments can also be used to help evaluate the economic risks and impact on the natural environment associated with development of resources. In February 2002, at the request of the Department of State and the then U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan (Robert P. Finn), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prepared a detailed proposal addressing natural resources issues critical to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. The proposal was refined and updated in December 2003 and was presented as a 5-year work plan to USAID-Kabul in February 2004. USAID-Kabul currently funds this plan and this report presents a part of the preliminary results obligated for fiscal year 2006. A final Preliminary Assessment of the Non Fuel Mineral Resource of Afghanistan will be completed and delivered at the end of fiscal year 2007. Afghanistan has abundant metallic and non-metallic resources, but the potential resources have never been systematically assessed using modern methods. Much of the existing mineral information for Afghanistan was gathered during the 1950s and continued in the late 1980s until the departure of the geologic advisors from the Soviet Union. During this period, there were many mineral-related activities centered on systematic geologic mapping of the country, collection of geochemical and rock samples, implementation of airborne geophysical surveys, and exploration focused on the discovery of large mineral deposits. Many reports, maps, charts, and tables were produced at that time. Some of

  16. Development of fault parameters for use in risk assessment modeling in the Pasco Basin, Columbia Plateau, South Central Washington: a preliminary study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caggiano, J.A.

    1982-03-01

    Preliminary data on strain rate, seismicity, and estimated earthquake source parameters suggest limitations on the extent of postulated faulting and its impact on a nuclear waste repository in Columbia River basalt. Structural relief of dated basalt flows, attitude of Pliocene sediments, geodetic surveys, size and distribution of earthquakes, and focal mechanism solutions indicate that deformation of basalt under north-south compression was under way in the Miocene and has continued on existing structures at an average rate of much less than 1 mm/yr in the Pasco Basin. Lengths and displacements of mapped faults suggest limits on the postulated fault that could intersect a repository and produce an earthquake of about magnitude 6.5. Using a credible earthquake permits calculation of preliminary source parameters for risk assessment modeling during a single episode of slip on the postulated new fault and indicates displacement of less than or equal to 1, m on a steeply dipping fault of less than or equal to 50 km length could occur. Preliminary source parameter calculations suggest that displacements of less than or equal to 2 cm may occur during microearthquakes in swarms. The area of fault rupture may be tens of square meters up to a few square kilometers, suggesting slip on joints. Seismic moments for postulated earthquakes in the interconnecting fault and microearthquake scenarios compare favorably with reported values for similar-sized earthquakes in different media and suggest that the estimated fault parameters are reasonable until an adequate tectonic model has been developed

  17. Oil sands tailings preliminary ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Chemical data collected from various oil sands soil-tailings mixtures were used to determine the ecological risk that such tailings would pose to terrestrial wildlife at the surface of a reclaimed site. A methodology that could be used to evaluate the risks posed by various reclamation options (for dry land only) was proposed. Risks associated with other reclamation options, such as wet landscapes or deeper in-pit disposal, were not evaluated. Ten constituents (eight organic and two inorganic) were found to pose a threat to terrestrial biota. The relative contribution of different exposure pathways (water and food ingestion, incidental soil ingestion, inhalation) were studied by probabilistic models. Some physical and chemical reclamation alternatives which involve incorporating oil sands tailings in the landscape to produce a surface that could sustain a productive ecosystem, were described. 53 refs., 15 tabs., 3 figs

  18. Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

    1993-01-01

    A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principal components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport

  19. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  20. Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site, near Gunnison, Colorado. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-06-01

    This report is the second site-specific risk assessment document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Gunnison site. A preliminary risk assessment was conducted in 1990 to determine whether long-term use of ground water from private wells near the Gunnison site had the potential for adverse health effects. Due to the results of that preliminary risk assessment, the residents were provided bottled water on an interim basis. In July 1994, the residents and the nearby Valco cement/concrete plant were given the option to connect to anew alternate water supply system, eliminating the bottled water option. This document evaluates current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether more action is needed to protect human health and the environment and to comply with the EPA standards

  1. Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site, near Gunnison, Colorado. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-06-01

    This report is the second site-specific risk assessment document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Gunnison site. A preliminary risk assessment was conducted in 1990 to determine whether long-term use of ground water from private wells near the Gunnison site had the potential for adverse health effects. Due to the results of that preliminary risk assessment, the residents were provided bottled water on an interim basis. In July 1994, the residents and the nearby Valco cement/concrete plant were given the option to connect to anew alternate water supply system, eliminating the bottled water option. This document evaluates current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether more action is needed to protect human health and the environment and to comply with the EPA standards.

  2. Preliminary Screening Assessment of the Potential Impact of the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry on Wildlife

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Sweeck, Lieve; Vives i Batlle, Jordi [SCK.CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol (Belgium)

    2014-07-01

    The activities of the phosphate industry may lead to enhanced levels of naturally occurring radioactivity in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. We here perform a preliminary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of the activities of the phosphate industry (phosphate ore mining, phosphate fertilizer factories, phosphate export platforms). We evaluated the environmental impact of 5 phosphate fertilizer plants (located in Belgium, Spain, Syria, Egypt, Brazil) and one phosphate-mine and phosphate-export platforms in the harbour(both located in Syria). These sites were selected because of the enhanced concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides in the surrounding environments. The ERICA non-human biota assessment tool was used to predict radiation dose rates to the reference organisms and associated risks. Reference organisms were those assigned as default by the ERICA Tool. Potential impact is expressed as a risk quotient (RQ) based on a radiation screening value of 10 μGy h{sup -1}. If RQ ≤ 1, the environment is unlikely at risk and further radiological assessment is deemed not to be required. For all the cases assessed, RQ exceeded 1 for at least one of the reference organisms. {sup 226}Ra or {sup 210}Po were generally the highest contributors to the dose. The aquatic ecosystems in the vicinity of the phosphate fertilizer plants in Tessenderlo (Belgium), Huelva (Spain), Goias (Brazil) and the terrestrial environment around the phosphate mine in Palmyra (Syria) are the ecosystems predicted most at risk. (authors)

  3. Occupational exposure assessment in a radioactive facility: a preliminary evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, Alice dos Santos; Gerulis, Eduardo; Sanches, Matias P.; Carneiro, Janete C.G.G.

    2013-01-01

    The risk that a worker has found on the job is a function of the hazards present and his exposure level to those hazards. Exposure and risk assessment is therefore the heart of all occupational health and industrial hygiene programs involving a continuous process of information gathering. The use of a systematic method to characterize workplace exposures to chemical, physical and biological risks is a fundamental part of this process. This study aims to carry out a preliminary evaluation in a radioactive facility, identifying potential exposures and consequently the existing occupational hazards (risk/agent) in the workplace which the employee is subject. The study is based on proposal to carry out a basic characterization of the facility, which could be the first step in the investigation of occupational exposure. For this study was essential to know the workplace, potential risks and agents; workforce profile including assignment of tasks, sources of exposure processes, and control measures. The main tool used in this study was based on references, records, standards, procedures, interviews with the workers and with management. Since the basic characterization of the facility has been carried out, consequently the potential exposure to the agents of risks to workers has been identified. The study provided an overview of the perception of risk founded at facility studied. It is expected to contribute with the occupational health program resources for welfare of the worker. (author)

  4. Occupational exposure assessment in a radioactive facility: a preliminary evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Alice dos Santos; Gerulis, Eduardo; Sanches, Matias P.; Carneiro, Janete C.G.G., E-mail: alicesante@hotmail.com [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The risk that a worker has found on the job is a function of the hazards present and his exposure level to those hazards. Exposure and risk assessment is therefore the heart of all occupational health and industrial hygiene programs involving a continuous process of information gathering. The use of a systematic method to characterize workplace exposures to chemical, physical and biological risks is a fundamental part of this process. This study aims to carry out a preliminary evaluation in a radioactive facility, identifying potential exposures and consequently the existing occupational hazards (risk/agent) in the workplace which the employee is subject. The study is based on proposal to carry out a basic characterization of the facility, which could be the first step in the investigation of occupational exposure. For this study was essential to know the workplace, potential risks and agents; workforce profile including assignment of tasks, sources of exposure processes, and control measures. The main tool used in this study was based on references, records, standards, procedures, interviews with the workers and with management. Since the basic characterization of the facility has been carried out, consequently the potential exposure to the agents of risks to workers has been identified. The study provided an overview of the perception of risk founded at facility studied. It is expected to contribute with the occupational health program resources for welfare of the worker. (author)

  5. Conceptual overview and preliminary risk assessment of cryogen use in deep underground mine production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivret, J.; Millar, D. L.; Lyle, G.

    2017-12-01

    This research conducts a formal risk assessment for cryogenic fueled equipment in underground environments. These include fans, load haul dump units, and trucks. The motivating advantage is zero-emissions production in the subsurface and simultaneous provision of cooling for ultra deep mine workings. The driving force of the engine is the expansion of the reboiled cryogen following flash evaporation using ambient temperature heat. The cold exhaust mixes with warm mine air and cools the latter further. The use of cryogens as ‘fuel’ leads to much increased fuel transport volumes and motivates special considerations for distribution infrastructure and process including: cryogenic storage, distribution, handling, and transfer systems. Detailed specification of parts and equipment, numerical modelling and preparation of design drawings are used to articulate the concept. The conceptual design process reveals new hazards and risks that the mining industry has not yet encountered, which may yet stymie execution. The major unwanted events include the potential for asphyxiation due to oxygen deficient atmospheres, or physical damage to workers due to exposure to sub-cooled liquids and cryogenic gases. The Global Minerals Industry Risk Management (GMIRM) framework incorporates WRAC and Bow-Tie techniques and is used to identify, assess and mitigate risks. These processes operate upon the competing conceptual designs to identify and eliminate high risk options and improve the safety of the lower risk designs.

  6. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  7. Use of ecotoxicological screening action levels in ecological risk assessment at Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferenbauah, R.; Ebinger, M.; Gallegos, A.; Hansen, W.; Myers, O.; Wenzel, W.

    1995-01-01

    Regulatory drivers found in several environmental statutes require that ecological risk assessment and Natural Resource Damage Assessment be performed to assess potential environmental impact from contaminated sites and from proposed remedial alternatives. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, the initial phase of the ecological risk assessment process required preliminary evaluation of contaminated sites to determine whether potential for ecological impact exists. The preliminary evaluations were made using Ecotoxicological Screening Action Levels (ESALS) calculated as a function of reference toxicity dose, body weight, food/water/air intake, and fraction of soil intake with food. Reference toxicity doses were derived from the Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) and Health Effects Assessment Summary Tables (HEAST) toxicology databases. Other parameters required for ESAL calculations were derived from physiological, metabolic, and behavioral data available in the literature. The Los Alamos ESALs were derived for guilds of animals with similar behavioral patterns, which were identified from natural resource survey data collected at Los Alamos. Subsequent to development of Ecotoxicological Screening Action Levels, Hazard Quotients, which are ratios of soil concentrations to Ecotoxicological Screening Action Levels, were calculated for potential contaminants of concern. The Hazard Quotients were used to identify which potential contaminants of concern should be evaluated further for ecological impact. There is potential for ecological impact when the Hazard Quotient is equal to or greater than one

  8. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  9. Preliminary risk assessment of common-use pesticides using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of PESTicides) models to predict pesticide exposure and effects on aquatic ecosystems due to spray drift. Vaalharts Irrigation. Scheme is ... to note that PRIMET only accounts for risk due to spray drift and therefore the risk might be ...... Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Mid-Continent. Ecological Division, Duluth ...

  10. TCA High Lift Preliminary Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyatt, G. H.; Polito, R. C.; Yeh, D. T.; Elzey, M. E.; Tran, J. T.; Meredith, Paul T.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a TCA (Technology Concept Airplane) High lift Preliminary Assessment. The topics discussed are: 1) Model Description; 2) Data Repeatability; 3) Effect of Inboard L.E. (Leading Edge) Flap Span; 4) Comparison of 14'x22' TCA-1 With NTF (National Transonic Facility) Modified Ref. H; 5) Comparison of 14'x22' and NTF Ref. H Results; 6) Effect of Outboard Sealed Slat on TCA; 7) TCA Full Scale Build-ups; 8) Full Scale L/D Comparisons; 9) TCA Full Scale; and 10) Touchdown Lift Curves. This paper is in viewgraph form.

  11. Risk assessment of nonhazardous oil-field waste disposal in salt caverns.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elcock, D.

    1998-03-10

    that if caverns are sited and designed well, operated carefully, closed properly, and monitored routinely, they could, from technical and legal perspectives, be suitable for disposing of oil-field wastes. On the basis of these findings, ANL subsequently conducted a preliminary risk assessment on the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from the NOW disposed of in salt caverns. The methodology for the risk assessment included the following steps: identifying potential contaminants of concern; determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants; assessing contaminant toxicities; estimating contaminant intakes; and estimating human cancer and noncancer risks. To estimate exposure routes and pathways, four postclosure cavern release scenarios were assessed. These were inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks, failure of the cavern through leaky interbeds, and partial collapse of the cavern roof. Assuming a single, generic, salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, potential human health effects associated with constituent hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) were assessed under each of these scenarios. Preliminary results provided excess cancer risk and hazard index (for noncancer health effects) estimates that were well within the EPA target range for acceptable exposure risk levels. These results lead to the preliminary conclusion that from a human health perspective, salt caverns can provide an acceptable disposal method for nonhazardous oil-field wastes.

  12. Risk assessment of nonhazardous oil-field waste disposal in salt caverns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elcock, D.

    1998-01-01

    that if caverns are sited and designed well, operated carefully, closed properly, and monitored routinely, they could, from technical and legal perspectives, be suitable for disposing of oil-field wastes. On the basis of these findings, ANL subsequently conducted a preliminary risk assessment on the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from the NOW disposed of in salt caverns. The methodology for the risk assessment included the following steps: identifying potential contaminants of concern; determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants; assessing contaminant toxicities; estimating contaminant intakes; and estimating human cancer and noncancer risks. To estimate exposure routes and pathways, four postclosure cavern release scenarios were assessed. These were inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks, failure of the cavern through leaky interbeds, and partial collapse of the cavern roof. Assuming a single, generic, salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, potential human health effects associated with constituent hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) were assessed under each of these scenarios. Preliminary results provided excess cancer risk and hazard index (for noncancer health effects) estimates that were well within the EPA target range for acceptable exposure risk levels. These results lead to the preliminary conclusion that from a human health perspective, salt caverns can provide an acceptable disposal method for nonhazardous oil-field wastes

  13. Preliminary radiological assessments of low-level waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Sumerling, T.J.; Ashton, J.

    1988-06-01

    Preliminary assessments of the post-closure radiological impact from the disposal of low-level radioactive wastes in shallow engineered facilities at four sites are presented. This provides a framework to practice and refine a methodology that could be used, on behalf of the Department, for independent assessment of any similar proposal from Nirex. Information and methodological improvements that would be required are identified. (author)

  14. Assessment of wind turbine seismic risk : existing literature and simple study of tower moment demand.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prowell, Ian (University of California, San Diego, CA); Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01

    Various sources of risk exist for all civil structures, one of which is seismic risk. As structures change in scale, the magnitude of seismic risk changes relative to risk from other sources. This paper presents an introduction to seismic hazard as applied to wind turbine structures. The existing design methods and research regarding seismic risk for wind turbines is then summarized. Finally a preliminary assessment is made based on current guidelines to understand how tower moment demand scales as rated power increases. Potential areas of uncertainty in the application of the current guidelines are summarized.

  15. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  16. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  17. The Adaptation Gap Report - a Preliminary Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alverson, Keith; Olhoff, Anne; Noble, Ian

    This first Adaptation Gap report provides an equally sobering assessment of the gap between adaptation needs and reality, based on preliminary thinking on how baselines, future goals or targets, and gaps between them might be defined for climate change adaptation. The report focuses on gaps...... in developing countries in three important areas: finance, technology and knowledge....

  18. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  19. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  20. The use of comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography and structure-activity modeling for screening and preliminary risk assessment of organic contaminants in soil, sediment, and surface water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreira Bastos, Patricia; Haglund, Peter [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Chemistry

    2012-08-15

    for further transport and fate modeling, complementary measurements, and more advanced risk assessments. Conclusions: The advantage of using of GC x GC-TofMS for preliminary screenings of contaminated areas was evaluated at a polluted area in northern Sweden. The area was found to carry organic pollutants such as polyaromatic hydrocarbons, aliphatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, phthalic compounds, and many chlorinated pesticides. Preliminary risk assessments indicate which compounds to use for subsequent remediation experiments based on their availability on the site or toxicity. (orig.)

  1. Preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This volume documents model parameters chosen as of July 1992 that were used by the Performance Assessment Department of Sandia National Laboratories in its 1992 preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Ranges and distributions for about 300 modeling parameters in the current secondary data base are presented in tables for the geologic and engineered barriers, global materials (e.g., fluid properties), and agents that act upon the WIPP disposal system such as climate variability and human-intrusion boreholes. The 49 parameters sampled in the 1992 Preliminary Performance Assessment are given special emphasis with tables and graphics that provide insight and sources of data for each parameter

  2. Lung cancer risk in relation to traffic-related nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs exposure: a preliminary probabilistic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chung-Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu; Ju, Yun-Ru; Li, Wen-Hsuan; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

    2011-06-15

    Exposures to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been linked to human lung cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess lung cancer risk caused by inhalation exposure to nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs at the population level in Taiwan appraised with recent published data. A human respiratory tract model was linked with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to estimate deposition fraction and internal organic-specific PAHs doses. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to estimate potential lung cancer risk. We reanalyzed particle size distribution, total-PAHs, particle-bound benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) and PM concentrations. A dose-response profile describing the relationships between external B[a]P concentration and lung cancer risk response was constructed based on population attributable fraction (PAF). We found that 90% probability lung cancer risks ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-4) for traffic-related nano and ultrafine particle-bound PAHs, indicating a potential lung cancer risk. The particle size-specific PAF-based excess annual lung cancer incidence rate due to PAHs exposure was estimated to be less than 1 per 100,000 population, indicating a mild risk factor for lung cancer. We concluded that probabilistic risk assessment linked PAF for limiting cumulative PAHs emissions to reduce lung cancer risk plays a prominent role in future government risk assessment program. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. 76 FR 63628 - Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-13

    ...] Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) AGENCY: Federal... Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR). DATES: Comments must be received by November 14, 2011... of the draft Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) on...

  4. Preliminary assessment of the gender aspects of disaster vulnerability and loss of human life in South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Tandlich, Roman; Chirenda, Tatenda G; Srinivas, Chandra S S

    2013-01-01

    South Africa has reached a medium level of human development and has a heterogeneous situation with respect to disaster risk management. In this article, a preliminary assessment of the gender aspects of disaster vulnerability and fatalities is presented. The United Nations, the Health Systems Trust and Statistics South Africa were used as data sources for the following gender-segregated values: the life expectancy at birth, unemployment rates, the human development index values, the maternal...

  5. Preliminary results of an oilspill risk analysis for the Bombay High Region

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.A.M.Q.; Gouveia, A.D.; Sitaraman, R.

    oil were analysed, covering estimates of the time between spill occurrence and contact with resources. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with production within the developmental area. Preliminary results...

  6. Diagnostic relevance of a questionnaire for osteoporosis risk assessment - comparison with osteodensitometry data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyanov, M.

    2001-01-01

    The early detection of osteoporosis is a key factor for reducing associated costs. Clinical risk factors have been used for selection of subjects suitable for bone densitometry. Questionnaires for preliminary osteoporosis risk assessment have already been implemented. The purpose of this study is to apply an original questionnaire for risk assessment and to assess its diagnostic value by comparison to forearm bone mineral density data (BMD). 285 females were included - mean age 53.5 ±8.8 years, 82% were menopausal. The osteoporosis risk was assessed by an original score system based on a questionnaire. Forearm BMD was measured by single-energy x-ray absorptiometry using own reference ranges. Two diagnosis models were tested by 'cluster analysis' - classifications with 3 or 2 diagnostic items. The second proved better. Sensitivity in detecting women with forearm osteoporosis was 86.7%, specificity - 16.5% and 75.8% of all women were correctly classified. The total score distribution in the study population is skewed to the right which reflects the two subgroups - at high and low risk for osteoporosis. The value of a similar questionnaire in the overall strategy for diagnosis and treatment of low BMD is discussed. (author)

  7. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  8. Preliminary psychometric properties of the brief Negative Symptom Scale in youth at Clinical High-Risk for psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Gregory P; Chapman, Hannah C

    2018-03-01

    Preliminary psychometric properties of an adapted version of the Brief Negative Symptom Scale (BNSS) are reported in youth at Clinical High-Risk for psychosis (CHR). Participants included 29 CHR youth who met criteria for a prodromal syndrome on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS). The adapted BNSS demonstrated excellent internal consistency, convergent validity, and discriminant validity, suggesting that the BNSS has utility for assessing negative symptoms in a CHR population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  10. A preliminary analysis of the risk of transporting nuclear waste to potential candidate commercial repository sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madsen, M.M.

    1984-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, environmental assessments for potential candidate sites are required to provide a basis for selection of the first site for disposal of commercial radioactive waste in deep geologic repositories. A preliminary analysis of the impacts of transportation for each of the five potential sites will be described. Transportation was assumed to be entirely by truck or entirely by rail in order to obtain bounding impacts. This paper presents both radiological and nonradiological risks for the once-through fuel cycle

  11. Assessing the feasibility of the Healthy Life in Suriname Study: using advanced hemodynamics to evaluate cardiovascular risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aartman, Jet Q.; Diemer, Frederieke S.; Karamat, Fares A.; Bohte, Evelien; Baldew, Sergio M.; Jarbandhan, Ameerani V.; van Montfrans, Gert A.; Oehlers, Glenn P.; Brewster, Lizzy M.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To determine the feasibility of assessing population cardiovascular risk with advanced hemodynamics in the Healthy Life in Suriname (HELISUR) study. Methods. This was a preliminary study conducted in May - June 2012 using the Technical-Economic-Legal-Operational-Scheduling (TELOS) method

  12. Development of a cumulative risk assessment for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory's waste area group 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burns, D.E.

    1995-01-01

    In 1989, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) was added to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Priorities List of Superfund sites. A Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFA/CO) for the INEL was signed by the Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID), EPA, and the State of Idaho in December 1991. The goal of this agreement is to ensure that potential or actual INEL releases of hazardous substances to the environment are thoroughly investigated in accordance with the National Contingency Plan (NCP) and that appropriate response actions are taken as necessary to protect human health and the environment. The Test Reactor Area (TRA) is included as Waste Area Group (WAG) 2 of ten INEL WAGs identified in the FFA/CO. WAG 2 consists of 13 operable units (OUs) which include pits, tanks, rubble piles, ponds, cooling towers, wells, french drains, perched water and spill areas. OU 2-13 is the Comprehensive Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) for WAG 2. The study presented here is a preliminary evaluation of the comprehensive risk for WAG-2. This investigation will be used as the basis of the WAG-2 comprehensive baseline risk assessment (BRA), and it will serve as a model for other INEL comprehensive risk assessments. The WAG-2 preliminary risk evaluation consisted of two broad phases. These phases were (1) a site and contaminant screening that was intended to support the identification of COPCs and risk assessment data gaps, and (2) an exposure pathway analysis that evaluated the comprehensive human health risks associated with WAG-2. The primary purposes of the investigation were to screen WAG-2 release sites and contaminants, and to identify risk assessment data gaps, so the investigation will be referred to as the WAG-2 Screening and Data Gap Analysis (SDGA) for the remainder of this report

  13. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  14. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  15. Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, Gene; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.; Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel K.; Yu, Charley; Lew, Christine S.; Mills, William B.

    1999-01-01

    Multimedia modelers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: DOE's Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), EPA's MMSOILS, EPA's PRESTO, and DOE's RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD). These models represent typical analytically, semi-analytically, and empirically based tools that are utilized in human risk and endangerment assessments for use at installations containing radioactive and/or hazardous contaminants. Although the benchmarking exercise traditionally emphasizes the application and comparison of these models, the establishment of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) should be viewed with equal importance. This paper reviews an approach for developing a CSM of an existing, real-world, Sr-90 plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, Washington, for use in a multimedia-based benchmarking exercise bet ween MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. In an unconventional move for analytically based modeling, the benchmarking exercise will begin with the plume as the source of contamination. The source and release mechanism are developed and described within the context of performing a preliminary risk assessment utilizing these analytical models. By beginning with the plume as the source term, this paper reviews a typical process and procedure an analyst would follow in developing a CSM for use in a preliminary assessment using this class of analytical tool

  16. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Baron, L.A.; Jackson, B.L.

    1995-08-01

    Historically, ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites [such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)], has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source operable unit. Consequently the species that are generally considered are those with home ranges small enough such that multiple individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the contaminated site. This approach is adequate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination that only provide habitat for species with limited requirements. This approach is not adequate however for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. Because wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites they may be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a particular contaminated site by wide-ranging species will be dependent upon the amount of suitable habitat available at that site. Therefore to adequately evaluate risks to wide-ranging species at the ORR-wide scale, the use of multiple contaminated sites must be weighted by the amount of suitable habitat on OUs. This reservation-wide ecological risk assessment is intended to identify which endpoints are significantly at risk; which contaminants are responsible for this risk; and which OUs significantly contribute to risk.

  17. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  18. Preliminary safety assessment and preliminary safety report for the treated radwaste store, Winfrith

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staples, A.T.

    1992-06-01

    It is the purpose of this assessment to define the categorisation of the Treated Radwaste Store, TRS, B55 at the Winfrith Technology Centre. Its further purpose is to cover all relevant sections required for a Preliminary Safety Report (PSR) encompassing the TRS and the integral Quality Assessment Unit (QUA). The TRS is designed for the interim storage of intermediate level radioactive wastes. All waste material stored in the TRS will be contained within 500 litre stainless steel drums acceptable to NIREX. It is proposed that the TRS will receive 500 litre stainless steel NIREX drums containing either irradiated DRAGON fuel or encapsulated sludge waste. (author)

  19. Preliminary safety assessment study for the conceptual design of a repository in tuff at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, J.L.; Gram, H.F.; Hong, K.J.; Ng, H.S.; Pendergrass, A.M.

    1984-12-01

    Preliminary estimates of the upper bounds on postulated worst-case radiological releases resulting from possible accidents during the operating period of a prospective repository in tuff at Yucca Mountain are presented. Possible disrupting events are screened to identify the accidents of greatest potential consequence. The radiological dose commitments for the general public and repository personnel are estimated for postulated releases caused by natural phenomena, man-made events, and operational accidents. All postulated worst-case releases result in doses to the public that are lower than the 0.5-rem, whole-body dose-per-accident limit set by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 10 CFR 60. Doses to repository personnel are within the NRC's 5.0-rem/yr occupational exposure limit set in 10 CFR 20 for normal operations. Doses are within this limit for all accidents except the transportation accident and fire in a drift. A preliminary risk assessment has also been performed. Based on this preliminary safety study, the proposed site boundaries and design criteria routinely used in constructing nuclear facilities appear to be adequate to protect the safety of the general public during the operating phase of the repository

  20. Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

    2016-01-01

    We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

  1. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  2. Preliminary Assessment of Potential Avian Interactions at Four Proposed Wind Energy Facilities on Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2004-08-01

    The United States Air Force (USAF) is investigating whether to install wind turbines to provide a supplemental source of electricity at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) near Lompoc, California. As part of that investigation, VAFB sought assistance from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to provide a preliminary characterization of the potential risk to wildlife resources (mainly birds and bats) from wind turbine installations. With wind power development expanding throughout North America and Europe, concerns have surfaced over the number of bird fatalities associated with wind turbines. Guidelines developed for the wind industry by the National Wind Coordinating Committee (NWCC) recommend assessing potential impacts to birds, bats, and other potentially sensitive resources before construction. The primary purpose of an assessment is to identify potential conflicts with sensitive resources, to assist developers with identifying their permitting needs, and to develop strategies to avoid impacts or to mitigate their effects. This report provides a preliminary (Phase I) biological assessment of potential impacts to birds and bats that might result from construction and operation of the proposed wind energy facilities on VAFB.

  3. Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

  4. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  5. A preliminary assessment of the chemical and microbial water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A preliminary assessment of the chemical and microbial water quality of the Chunies River - Limpopo: short communication. ... For this purpose sampling was undertaken on 25 and 26 May 2002, and a range of chemical (macro-elements, micro-elements and heavy metals) and microbial variables (HPC, total coliforms and ...

  6. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  8. Preliminary seismic design cost-benefit assessment of the tuff repository waste-handling facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, C.V.; Abrahamson, N.; Hadjian, A.H.

    1989-02-01

    This report presents a preliminary assessment of the costs and benefits associated with changes in the seismic design basis of waste-handling facilities. The objectives of the study are to understand the capability of the current seismic design of the waste-handling facilities to mitigate seismic hazards, evaluate how different design levels and design measures might be used toward mitigating seismic hazards, assess the costs and benefits of alternative seismic design levels, and develop recommendations for possible modifications to the seismic design basis. This preliminary assessment is based primarily on expert judgment solicited in an interdisciplinary workshop environment. The estimated costs for individual attributes and the assumptions underlying these cost estimates (seismic hazard levels, fragilities, radioactive-release scenarios, etc.) are subject to large uncertainties, which are generally identified but not treated explicitly in this preliminary analysis. The major conclusions of the report do not appear to be very sensitive to these uncertainties. 41 refs., 51 figs., 35 tabs

  9. Size, Diversification and Risk: Preliminary Evidence from Commercial Banks in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayesha Afzal

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide some preliminary evidence on relation between size, diversification and risk in commercial banks of Pakistan. Using a panel of Pakistani banks, we investigated whether bigger banks are better diversified than smaller banks.The results suggested that larger banks were more diversified than their smaller counterparts mainly on account of their outreach and size of credit portfolio. On the risk side, based on accounting and market based risk measures, we explored if there is any impact of diversification on risk. We could not deduce significant result in favor of accounting risk measure of impaired lending signaling that banks find no incentive in diversification of credit books. The market based measures of VaR and Default indicator were significantly related to diversification signifying that market participants consider diversification as a relevant tool for risk mitigation. These findings have policy implications for regulators and risk management to ensure stability in financial system.

  10. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  11. Preliminary remediation goals for ecological endpoints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efroymson, R.A.; Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.

    1996-07-01

    Preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) are useful for risk assessment and decision making at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites. PRGs are upper concentration limits for specific chemicals in specific environmental media that are anticipated to protect human health or the environment. They can be used for multiple remedial investigations at multiple facilities. In addition to media and chemicals of potential concern, the development of PRGs generally requires some knowledge or anticipation of future land use. In Preliminary Remediation Goals for Use at the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office (Energy Systems 1995), PRGs intended to protect human health were developed with guidance from Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Volume I - Human Health Evaluation Manual, Part B (RAGS) (EPA 1991). However, no guidance was given for PRGs based on ecological risk. The numbers that appear in this volume have, for the most part, been extracted from toxicological benchmarks documents for Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and have previously been developed by ORNL. The sources of the quantities, and many of the uncertainties associated with their derivation, are described in this technical memorandum

  12. Preliminary remediation goals for ecological endpoints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efroymson, R.A.; Suter, G.W. II.

    1995-09-01

    Preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) are useful for risk assessment and decision making at Comprehensive Environmental Response, compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites. PRGs are upper concentration limits for specific chemicals in specific environmental media that are anticipated to protect human health or the environment. They can be used for multiple remedial investigations at multiple facilities. In addition to media and chemicals of potential concern, the development of PRGs generally requires some knowledge or anticipation of future land use. In Preliminary Remediation Goals for Use at the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office (Energy Systems 1995), PRGs intended to protect human health were developed with guidance from Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Volume I-Human Health Evaluation Manual, Part B (RAGS) (EPA 1991). However, no guidance was given for PRGs based on ecological risk. The numbers that appear in this volume have, for the most part, been extracted from toxicological benchmarks documents for Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and have previously been developed by ORNL. The sources of the quantities, and many of the uncertainties associated with their derivation, are described in this technical memorandum

  13. A preliminary benefit-risk assessment of varenicline in smoking cessation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Kate; Stead, Lindsay; Lancaster, Tim

    2009-01-01

    Varenicline is a recently developed medication for smoking cessation, which has been available on prescription since 2006. It is a selective nicotinic acetylcholine receptor partial agonist, and is designed to reduce withdrawal symptoms and to lessen the rewards of continued smoking. Our objective in this article is to assess the efficacy of varenicline as an aid to smoking cessation and to weigh the potential benefits against the possible risks. We identified ten randomized controlled trials and one cohort study with historical controls. In total there were 7999 participants, 5112 of whom received varenicline. Eight of the trials compared varenicline with placebo for cessation, two compared it with nicotine replacement therapy and one tested extended use for relapse prevention. Three of the varenicline/placebo trials also included a bupropion arm. The recommended dosage of varenicline 1 mg twice daily more than doubled the chances of quitting at 6 months or longer, with a relative risk (RR) compared with placebo of 2.38 (95% CI 2.00, 2.84). It also outperformed bupropion (RR 1.52 [95% CI 1.22, 1.88]) and nicotine replacement (RR 1.31 [95% CI 1.01, 1.71]). A reduced dosage regimen of 1 mg daily also increased cessation (RR 1.88 [95% CI 1.35, 2.60]). In the trials, varenicline significantly reduced craving and other withdrawal symptoms. The most frequent adverse event was nausea, occurring in 30-40% of varenicline users. However, this was generally reported at mild to moderate levels, diminished over time and was associated with attributable discontinuation rates of between 0.6% and 7.6%. Other commonly occurring adverse events included insomnia, abnormal dreams and headache. Serious adverse events were rare, with no treatment-related deaths during the treatment or follow-up phases. Postmarketing surveillance has raised new questions about the safety of varenicline. In February 2008, the US FDA issued a public health advisory note, reporting a possible association

  14. California's forest resources. Preliminary assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    This Preliminary Assessment was prepared in response to the California Forest Resources Assessment and Policy Act of 1977 (FRAPA). This Act was passed to improve the information base upon which State resource administrators formulate forest policy. The Act provides for this report and a full assessment by 1987 and at five year intervals thereafter. Information is presented under the following chapter titles: introduction to the forest resources assessment program; the forest area: a general description; classifications of the forest lands; the watersheds; forest lands and the air resource; fish and wildlife resources; the forested rangelands; the wilderness; forest lands as a recreation resource; the timber resource; wood energy; forest lands and the mineral, fossil fuels, and geothermal energy resources; mathematically modeling California's forest lands; vegetation mapping using remote sensing technology; important forest resources legislation; and, State and cooperative State/Federal forestry programs. Twelve indexes, a bibliography, and glossary are included. (JGB)

  15. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  16. Bats roosting in public buildings: A preliminary assessment from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Madagascar has many synanthropic bat species but relatively little is known about how people interact with them. A preliminary assessment on the presence of bats in buildings and their interactions with people was conducted in the eastern town of Moramanga. Fifty of the 156 buildings were reported to contain active bat ...

  17. C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

  18. 78 FR 8522 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Evaluation of the Potential Risk From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-06

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OPP-2008-0850; FRL-9376-5] Chlorpyrifos Registration... preliminary volatilization assessment for the registration review of chlorpyrifos and opens a public comment... assessment for chlorpyrifos uses. After reviewing comments received during the public comment period, EPA...

  19. A Preliminary Assessment of Groundwater Samples around a Filling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a preliminary assessment of groundwater samples around a filling station in Diobu area of Port Harcourt for four years at intervals of two years with a view to determine the level of groundwater pollution. It examines the physiochemical, major ions and heavy metal aspect of groundwater quality around the study ...

  20. Preliminary Safeguards Assessment for the Pebble-Bed Fluoride High-Temperature Reactor (PB-FHR) Concept

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Disser, Jay; Arthur, Edward; Lambert, Janine

    2016-09-01

    This report examines a preliminary design for a pebble bed fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor (PB-FHR) concept, assessing it from an international safeguards perspective. Safeguards features are defined, in a preliminary fashion, and suggestions are made for addressing further nuclear materials accountancy needs.

  1. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  2. Ecological risk assessment as a framework for environmental impact assessments

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claassen, Marius

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessments in South Africa are usually conducted according to the integrated environmental management (IEM) procedure. The preliminary investigation reported here, indicated that most of the ecological requirements specified...

  3. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  4. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  5. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  6. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  7. 40 CFR 300.305 - Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action. 300.305 Section 300.305 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... the OSC is informed of their activities in natural resource damage assessment that may affect response...

  8. The reliability and preliminary validity of game-based fall risk assessment in community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Minoru; Aoyama, Tomoki; Nakamura, Masatoshi; Tanaka, Buichi; Nagai, Koutatsu; Tatematsu, Noriatsu; Uemura, Kazuki; Nakamura, Takashi; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Ichihashi, Noriaki

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether the Nintendo Wii Fit program could be used for fall risk assessment in healthy, community-dwelling older adults. Forty-five community-dwelling older women participated in this study. The "Basic Step" and "Ski Slalom" modules were selected from the Wii Fit game program. The following 5 physical performance tests were performed: the 10-m walk test under single- and dual-task conditions, the Timed Up and Go test under single- and dual-task conditions, and the Functional Reach test. Compared with the faller group, the nonfaller group showed a significant difference in the Basic Step (P game-based fall risk assessment using the Basic Step has a high generality and is useful in community-dwelling older adults. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in Occupational Settings Applied to the Airborne Human Adenovirus Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalaura Carducci

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA methodology, which has already been applied to drinking water and food safety, may also be applied to risk assessment and management at the workplace. The present study developed a preliminary QMRA model to assess microbial risk that is associated with inhaling bioaerosols that are contaminated with human adenovirus (HAdV. This model has been applied to air contamination data from different occupational settings, including wastewater systems, solid waste landfills, and toilets in healthcare settings and offices, with different exposure times. Virological monitoring showed the presence of HAdVs in all the evaluated settings, thus confirming that HAdV is widespread, but with different average concentrations of the virus. The QMRA results, based on these concentrations, showed that toilets had the highest probability of viral infection, followed by wastewater treatment plants and municipal solid waste landfills. Our QMRA approach in occupational settings is novel, and certain caveats should be considered. Nonetheless, we believe it is worthy of further discussions and investigations.

  10. Preliminary assessment report for National Guard Training Center, Georgia Army National Guard, Fort Stewart, Georgia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Georgia Army National Guard (GAARNG) facility near Hinesville, Georgia, known as the National Guard Training Center (NGTC). Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a priority basis for completing corrective actions (where necessary) in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining previous site activities, types and quantities of hazardous substances utilized, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment. The scope of this assessment is limited to the facilities and past activities contained within the NGTC. Preliminary assessment site score sheet information is also provided for the NGTC. However, this assessment report is intended to be read in conjunction with a previous IRP assessment of Fort Stewart completed in 1992 (USATHAMA 1992) and to provide comprehensive information on the NGTC area for incorporation with information contained in that previous assessment for the entirety of Fort Stewart

  11. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tortorelli, J.P. [ed.] [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  12. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC's intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance

  13. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  14. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  15. Biota Modeling in EPA's Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, Karessa L.; Dolislager, Fredrick G.; Bellamy, Michael B.

    2016-01-01

    The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level tools that set forth Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recommended approaches, based upon currently available information with respect to risk assessment, for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has a residential gardening scenario and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that require modeling of the transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC exposure scenarios. Recent improvements have been made in the biota modeling for these calculators, including newly derived biota intake rates, more comprehensive soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals and soil to plant transfer factors (BV's). New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  17. Research and development of technologies for safe and environmentally optimal recovery and disposal of explosive wastes. Task 2, Preliminary impact assessment for environment, health and safety (EIA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duijm, N.J.; Markert, F. [Risoe (Denmark); Larsen, S.G. [DEMEX A/S (Denmark)

    1998-09-01

    As described in the project proposal `Research and Development of Technologies for Safe and Environmentally optimal recovery and Disposal of Explosive Wastes`, dated 31. May 1996, the objective of Task 2, Preliminary Impact Assessment for Environment, Health and Safety, is to: Analyse the environmental impact of noise and emissions to air, water and soil; Assess the risk of hazards to workers` health and safety and to the public. Task 2, Preliminary Impact Assessment for Environment, Health and Safety (EIA), has been performed from August 1997 to September 1998. First, a methodology has been established, based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), to select the `best` technology on the basis of clearly defined objectives, including minimal impacts on environment, health and safety. This included a review of different types of explosive waste with a focus on the environment implications, identifying the issues relevant to defining the criteria or objectives with respect to environment and safety in the framework of explosive waste, as well as the preliminary definition of objectives for the final impact assessment. Second, the previously identified recovery and disposal technologies (Task 1) have been qualitatively assessed on the basis of the relevant objectives. This qualitative assessment includes also economic considerations and an attempt to rank the technologies in an MCDA framework. (au)

  18. EXPLOSION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT OF HEAT EXCHANGER NETWORK AT THE PRELIMINARY DESIGN STAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MOHSIN PASHA

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The failure of Shell and Tube Heat Exchangers (STHE is being extensively observed in the chemical process industries. This failure can cause enormous production loss and have a potential of dangerous consequences such as an explosion, fire and toxic release scenarios. There is an urgent need for assessing the explosion potential of shell and tube heat exchanger at the preliminary design stage. In current work, inherent safety index based approach is used to resolve the highlighted issue. Inherent Safety Index for Shell and Tube Heat Exchanger (ISISTHE is a newly developed index for assessing the inherent safety level of a STHE at the preliminary design stage. This index is composed of preliminary design variables and integrated with the process design simulator (Aspen HYSYS. Process information can easily be transferred from process design simulator to MS Excel spreadsheet owing to this integration. This index could potentially facilitate the design engineer to analyse the worst heat exchanger in the heat exchanger network. Typical heat exchanger network of the steam reforming process is presented as a case study and the worst heat exchanger of this network has been identified. It is inferred from this analysis that shell and tube heat exchangers possess high operating pressure, corrected mean temperature difference (CMTD and flammability and reactive potential needs to be critically analysed at the preliminary design stage.

  19. Preliminary market assessment of fluidized-bed waste-heat recovery technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campos, F.T.; Fey, C.L.; Grogan, P.J.; Klein, N.P.

    1980-06-01

    A preliminary assessment of fluidized-bed waste-heat recovery (FBWHR) system market potential is presented with emphasis on the factors influencing industrial acceptability. Preliminary market potential areas are identified based on the availability of waste heat. Trends in energy use are examined to see the effect they might have on these market potential areas in the future. Focus groups interviews are used to explore important factors in the industrial decision-making process. These important factors are explored quantitatively in a survey of industrial plant engineers. The survey deals with the waste-heat boiler configuration of the FBWHR system. Results indicate market acceptance of the fluidized-bed waste-heat boiler could be quite low.

  20. Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.

  1. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  2. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  3. Egypt--United States cooperative energy assessment: report on preliminary discussions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-04-01

    Egyptian and U.S. Government representatives met in Cairo during the period of February 14-22, 1978 to discuss a cooperative Egypt-U.S. assessment of the energy demand and supply options available to Egypt. This report summarizes those preliminary discussions. The discussions accomplished the following: the background and objectives of the U.S. initiative for a cooperative energy assessment with Egypt were explained; Egyptian electric energy activities and their priorities were presented; methods under consideration for the systematic identification and assessment of energy options available to Egypt were explained; the cooperation of Egyptian energy resource and planning organizations was assured; and arrangements to carry out the cooperative assessment were planned.

  4. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  5. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  6. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  7. Preliminary analysis of alternative fuel cycles for proliferation evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steindler, M. J.; Ripfel, H. C.F.; Rainey, R. H.

    1977-01-01

    The ERDA Division of Nuclear Research and Applications proposed 67 nuclear fuel cycles for assessment as to their nonproliferation potential. The object of the assessment was to determine which fuel cycles pose inherently low risk for nuclear weapon proliferation while retaining the major benefits of nuclear energy. This report is a preliminary analysis of these fuel cycles to develop the fuel-recycle data that will complement reactor data, environmental data, and political considerations, which must be included in the overall evaluation. This report presents the preliminary evaluations from ANL, HEDL, ORNL, and SRL and is the basis for a continuing in-depth study. (DLC)

  8. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  9. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, Sam; Chadès, Iadine

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  10. Ecotoxicity and Preliminary Risk Assessment of Nonivamide as a Promising Marine Antifoulant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujing Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The unclear environmental performance of nonivamide limits its application as a marine antifoulant. In this study, the natural degradation of nonivamide was studied in seawater and tap water. The half-life was 5.8 d, 8.8 d, 12.2 d, and 14.7 d in seawater and tap water in photolysis and biolysis, respectively. Furthermore, the ecotoxicity of nonivamide was assessed using marine microalgae, Chlorella vulgaris and Platymonas sp.; EC50,  6 d values on the growth of Chlorella vulgaris and Platymonas sp. were 16.9 mg L−1 and 19.21 mg L−1, respectively. The toxicity and environmental risk of nonivamide on microalgae were significantly decreased due to the natural degradation in seawater.

  11. Assessment of radiation risk as a part of ecological risk in the Republic of Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltanova, Irina; Saltanov, Eugene

    2008-01-01

    -effect' can be used for correction of chemical substance limitations in the environment in case of increased radioactive background. It is first shown that mono-factor risk assessment can be used, when negative environmental factors act on the human body at a one time, only. The results (in its part dedicated to radioactive risks) were recommended by the IAEA courses committee (Course Code C7-RER9062-017 'Regional Post Graduate Training Course on Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources') as an introduction course for IAEA program participants, preliminary to their field experience in the Gomel region. Theoretical and experimental foundation for the necessity of integral ecological risk assessment is suggested. (author)

  12. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  14. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  15. Assessment of risks of loose landslide deposits formed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, S.; Zhang, L. M.; Peng, M.; Zhang, L. L.; Zhao, H. F.; Chen, H. X.

    2012-05-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based quantitative risk assessment methodology was adopted to evaluate the risks of loose deposits formed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake along a highway near the epicenter. A total of 305 loose deposits with a total volume of 4.0 × 107 m3 has been identified. A physical model was used to determine the failure probability of these loose deposits under six rainfall scenarios, assuming the loose deposits as infinite slopes. The calculated probability of rain-induced slope failures is verified by the recorded landslides at the same site during a storm in 2010. Seventy-nine out of the 112 rain-induced loose deposit failures are predicted by the reliability analysis, with an accuracy of 71%. The results of reliability analysis and information on the consequence of these rain-induced landslides enable the estimation of the annual societal and individual risks of the loose deposits. Under the rainfall scenarios of 30 mm/12 h and 70 mm/12 h, the estimated annual societal risks reach 8.8 and 7.5, respectively, and the individual risks reach 0.05 and 0.04, respectively, which are very high compared with present risk acceptance criteria. The preliminary assessment provides a benchmark for studying the long-term risks of these loose deposits and engineering decision.

  16. Preliminary Safety and Risk HSE Assessment. Application to the Potential Locations of a CO2 Geological Storage Pilot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recreo, F.; Eguilior, S.; Ruiz, C.; Lomba, L.; Hurtado, A.

    2015-01-01

    The location of a site safe and able to sequester CO2 for long periods of time is essential to gain public acceptance. This requires a long-term safety assessment developed in a robust and reliable framework. Site selection is the first step and requires specific research. This paper describes the application of the Selection and Classification Method of Geological Formations (SCF) developed to assess the potential of geological formations to CO2 storage. This assessment is based in the analysis of risks to Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) derived from potential CO2 leakage. Comparisons of the results obtained from a number of potential sites can help to select the best candidate for CO2 injection. The potential impact will be related to three key potential features of CO2 geological storage: the potential of the target geological formation for long term CO2 containment; the potential for secondary containment on containment failure of the target formation; and the site's potential to mitigate and/or disperse CO2 leakage if the primary and secondary containments fail. The methodology assesses each of these three characteristics through an analysis and assessment of properties of certain attributes of them. Uncertainty will remain as an input and output value of the methodology due to the usual lack of data in most site selection processes. The global uncertainty reports on the trust on the knowledge of the site characteristics. Therefore, the methodology enables comparing sites taking into account both the HSE risk expectation and the estimation of the quality of knowledge concerning such risk. The objective is to contribute to the selection of potential sites for a CO2 injection pilot plant in the Iberian Peninsula from the perspective of Safety and Risk Analysis.

  17. Preliminary feasibility assessment for Earth-to-space electromagnetic (Railgun) launchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, E. E.; Miller, L. A.; Earhart, R. W.

    1982-01-01

    An Earth to space electromagnetic (railgun) launcher (ESRL) for launching material into space was studied. Potential ESRL applications were identified and initially assessed to formulate preliminary system requirements. The potential applications included nuclear waste disposal in space, Earth orbital applications, deep space probe launchers, atmospheric research, and boost of chemical rockets. The ESRL system concept consisted of two separate railgun launcher tubes (one at 20 deg from the horizontal for Earth orbital missions, the other vertical for solar system escape disposal missions) powered by a common power plant. Each 2040 m launcher tube is surrounded by 10,200 homopolar generator/inductor units to transmit the power to the walls. Projectile masses are 6500 kg for Earth orbital missions and 2055 kg for nuclear waste disposal missions. For the Earth orbital missions, the projectile requires a propulsion system, leaving an estimated payload mass of 650 kg. For the nuclear waste disposal in space mission, the high level waste mass was estimated at 250 kg. This preliminary assessment included technical, environmental, and economic analyses.

  18. Preliminary report on hepatic and cardiovascular risk assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2011-02-28

    Feb 28, 2011 ... not at greater risk of disruption of their plasma membrane ... supplementing soy protein with acetate generating amino acids. Nutr. Rep. Int. 40: ... Effects of fruits and vegetables on cardiovascular disease ris factors in non-.

  19. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  20. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  1. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  2. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  3. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  4. Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

    2012-04-01

    The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

  5. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam Nicol

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessment (EIA is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  6. Preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system based on information in the literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luick, A.E.; Fecht, B.A.; Nilson, S.A.; Sevigny, N.L.; Armstrong, G.R.; Hill, D.H.; Rowe, M.; Stern, E.

    1992-01-01

    This document presents preliminary information on the radiological and nonradiological risks in the nuclear waste management system. The objective of the study was to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitude of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management systems. The study examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system currently expected to be developed by the DOE. The scope of this document includes the potential repository, the integral MRS facility, and the transportation system that supports the potential repository and the MRS facility. Relevant literature was reviewed for several potential repository sites and geologic media. A wide range of ''risk categories'' are addressed in this report: (1) public and occupational risks from accidents that could release radiological materials, (2) public and occupational radiation exposure resulting from routine operations, (3) public and occupational risks from accidents involving hazards other than radioactive materials, and (4) public and occupational risks from exposure to nonradioactive hazardous materials during routine operations. The report is intended to provide a broad spectrum of risk-related information about the waste management system. This information is intended to be helpful for planning future studies

  7. The Anaclitic-Introjective Depression Assessment: Development and preliminary validity of an observer-rated measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rost, Felicitas; Luyten, Patrick; Fonagy, Peter

    2018-03-01

    The two-configurations model developed by Blatt and colleagues offers a comprehensive conceptual and empirical framework for understanding depression. This model suggests that depressed patients struggle, at different developmental levels, with issues related to dependency (anaclitic issues) or self-definition (introjective issues), or a combination of both. This paper reports three studies on the development and preliminary validation of the Anaclitic-Introjective Depression Assessment, an observer-rated assessment tool of impairments in relatedness and self-definition in clinical depression based on the item pool of the Shedler-Westen Assessment Procedure. Study 1 describes the development of the measure using expert consensus rating and Q-methodology. Studies 2 and 3 report the assessment of its psychometric properties, preliminary reliability, and validity in a sample of 128 patients diagnosed with treatment-resistant depression. Four naturally occurring clusters of depressed patients were identified using Q-factor analysis, which, overall, showed meaningful and theoretically expected relationships with anaclitic/introjective prototypes as formulated by experts, as well as with clinical, social, occupational, global, and relational functioning. Taken together, findings reported in this paper provide preliminary evidence for the reliability and validity of the Anaclitic-Introjective Depression Assessment, an observer-rated measure that allows the detection of important nuanced differentiations between and within anaclitic and introjective depression. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  9. Assessment of the knowledge and attitudes of preliminary school students toward smoking in Baghdad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbas Jabbar Sahib

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Early smoking considered as a major challenge for health promoters, as well it is socially not acceptable, thus interventions must tackle childhood starts of smoking.Aim: Assessing the knowledge and attitude of preliminary students towards tobacco use. Methods: A cross-sectional study conducted among 2195, 5th grade students from 30 preliminary schools in Baghdad (15 from each side Karkh & Rusafa during November 2014. They were selected by multistage sampling technique.Results:  Participated students age ranged between (10-13 years and (51.9% of them were girls, (54.3% of their parents were nonsmoker while the rest reported that both or one of them are smokers, direct and indirect risks of cigarette  smoking were known by (82.4% and (66.2% respectively, and (70.8% of students’ families were found to wear their kids from smoking hazards, while more than (50% of them have received health education massages from their teachers. Sitting near smoker person was not in favor of (86.2% of the participants, as (51.4% considered it religiously inconvenient and (34.6% considered smoking as a sign of no self-confidence. At last, (73.7% of the surveyed students agreed with smoking prohibition in public places while (25.8% opposed that.Conclusion: In spite of the high percentage of students’ parents were smokers; nevertheless, risks of smoking are well known by the surveyed students and they showed positive attitudes toward smoking prohibition in public places. Parental advising for quit smoking and urging teachers to educate their students about smoking hazards are thought to be the right action.

  10. Summary of EPA's risk assessment results from the analysis of alternative methods of low-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.; Hung, C.Y.; Meyer, G.L.; Rogers, V.C.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation of the potential health risk and individual exposure from a broad number of disposal alternatives is an important part of EPA's program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive wastes (LLW). The Agency has completed an analysis of the potential population health risks and maximum individual exposures from ten disposal methods under three different hydrogeological and climatic settings. This paper briefly describes the general input and analysis procedures used in the risk assessment for LLW disposal and presents their preliminary results. Some important lessons learned from simulating LLW disposal under a large variety of methods and conditions are identified

  11. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  12. Screening for Malnutrition in Community Dwelling Older Japanese: Preliminary Development and Evaluation of the Japanese Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Htun, N C; Ishikawa-Takata, K; Kuroda, A; Tanaka, T; Kikutani, T; Obuchi, S P; Hirano, H; Iijima, K

    2016-02-01

    Early and effective screening for age-related malnutrition is an essential part of providing optimal nutritional care to older populations. This study was performed to evaluate the adaptation of the original SCREEN II questionnaire (Seniors in the Community: Risk Evaluation for Eating and Nutrition, version II) for use in Japan by examining its measurement properties and ability to predict nutritional risk and sarcopenia in community-dwelling older Japanese people. The ultimate objective of this preliminary validation study is to develop a license granted full Japanese version of the SCREEN II. The measurement properties and predictive validity of the NRST were examined in this cross-sectional study of 1921 community-dwelling older Japanese people. Assessments included medical history, and anthropometric and serum albumin measurements. Questions on dietary habits that corresponded to the original SCREEN II were applied to Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST) scoring system. Nutritional risk was assessed by the Geriatric Nutrition Risk Index (GNRI) and the short form of the Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF). Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to the criteria of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People. The nutritional risk prevalences determined by the GNRI and MNA-SF were 5.6% and 34.7%, respectively. The prevalence of sarcopenia was 13.3%. Mean NRST scores were significantly lower in the nutritionally at-risk than in the well-nourished groups. Concurrent validity analysis showed significant correlations between NRST scores and both nutritional risk parameters (GNRI or MNA-SF) and sarcopenia. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of NRST for the prediction of nutritional risk were 0.635 and 0.584 as assessed by GNRI and MNA-SF, respectively. AUCs for the prediction of sarcopenia were 0.602 (NRST), 0.655 (age-integrated NRST), and 0.676 (age and BMI-integrated NRST). These results indicate that the NRST is a

  13. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  14. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  15. Interactive Block Games for Assessing Children's Cognitive Skills: Design and Preliminary Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiju Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: This paper presents design and results from preliminary evaluation of Tangible Geometric Games (TAG-Games for cognitive assessment in young children. The TAG-Games technology employs a set of sensor-integrated cube blocks, called SIG-Blocks, and graphical user interfaces for test administration and real-time performance monitoring. TAG-Games were administered to children from 4 to 8 years of age for evaluating preliminary efficacy of this new technology-based approach.Methods: Five different sets of SIG-Blocks comprised of geometric shapes, segmented human faces, segmented animal faces, emoticons, and colors, were used for three types of TAG-Games, including Assembly, Shape Matching, and Sequence Memory. Computational task difficulty measures were defined for each game and used to generate items with varying difficulty. For preliminary evaluation, TAG-Games were tested on 40 children. To explore the clinical utility of the information assessed by TAG-Games, three subtests of the age-appropriate Wechsler tests (i.e., Block Design, Matrix Reasoning, and Picture Concept were also administered.Results: Internal consistency of TAG-Games was evaluated by the split-half reliability test. Weak to moderate correlations between Assembly and Block Design, Shape Matching and Matrix Reasoning, and Sequence Memory and Picture Concept were found. The computational measure of task complexity for each TAG-Game showed a significant correlation with participants' performance. In addition, age-correlations on TAG-Game scores were found, implying its potential use for assessing children's cognitive skills autonomously.

  16. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  17. Biota Modeling in EPA's Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manning, Karessa L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dolislager, Fredrick G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bellamy, Michael B. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level tools that set forth Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recommended approaches, based upon currently available information with respect to risk assessment, for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has a residential gardening scenario and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that require modeling of the transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC exposure scenarios. Recent improvements have been made in the biota modeling for these calculators, including newly derived biota intake rates, more comprehensive soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals and soil to plant transfer factors (BV's). New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

  18. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  19. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  20. AVLIS Production Plant Preliminary Quality Assurance Plan and Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    This preliminary Quality Assurance Plan and Assessment establishes the Quality Assurance requirements for the AVLIS Production Plant Project. The Quality Assurance Plan defines the management approach, organization, interfaces, and controls that will be used in order to provide adequate confidence that the AVLIS Production Plant design, procurement, construction, fabrication, installation, start-up, and operation are accomplished within established goals and objectives. The Quality Assurance Program defined in this document includes a system for assessing those elements of the project whose failure would have a significant impact on safety, environment, schedule, cost, or overall plant objectives. As elements of the project are assessed, classifications are provided to establish and assure that special actions are defined which will eliminate or reduce the probability of occurrence or control the consequences of failure. 8 figures, 18 tables

  1. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  2. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Use of screening techniques to reduce uncertainty in risk assessment at a former manufactured gas plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, C.M.; Walden, R.H.; Baker, S.R.; Pekar, Z.; LaKind, J.S.; MacFarlane, I.D.

    1995-01-01

    Preliminary analysis of risks from a former manufactured gas plant (MGP) site revealed six media associated with potential exposure pathways: soils, air, surface water, groundwater, estuarine sediments, and aquatic biota. Contaminants of concern (COCs) include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic hydrocarbons, metals, cyanide, and PCBs. Available chemical data, including site-specific measurements and existing data from other sources (e.g., agency monitoring programs, Chesapeake Bay Program), were evaluated for potential utility in risk assessment. Where sufficient data existed, risk calculations were performed using central tendency and reasonable maximum exposure estimates. Where site-specific data were not available, risks were estimated using conservatively high default assumptions for dose and/or exposure duration. Because of the large number of potential exposure pathways and COCs, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine which information most influences risk assessment outcome so that any additional data collection to reduce uncertainty can be cost-effectively targeted. The sensitivity analysis utilized two types of information: (1) the impact that uncertainty in risk input values has on output risk estimates, and (2) the potential improvement in key risk input values, and consequently output values, if better site-specific data were available. A decision matrix using both quantitative and qualitative information was developed to prioritize sampling strategies to minimize uncertainty in the final risk assessment

  4. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  5. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  6. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  7. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  8. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  9. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  10. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  11. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  12. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  13. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  14. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  15. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  16. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  17. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  18. Preliminary Ecotoxicity and Biodegradability Assessment of Metalworking Fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerulová, Kristína; Amcha, Peter; Filická, Slávka

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of activated sludge from sewage treatment plant to degrade selected MWFs (ecotoxicity to bacterial consortium) and to evaluate the ecotoxicity by Lemna minor-higher plant. After evaluating the ecotoxicity, biodegradations rate with activated sludge was assessed on the basis of COD measurement. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity according to OECD 221 by Lemna minor shows effective concentration of Emulzin H at the rate of 81.6 mg l-1, for Ecocool 82.9 mg l-1, for BC 25 about 99.3 mg l-1, and for Dasnobor about 97.3 mg l-1. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity by bacterial consortium according to OECD 209 (STN EN ISO 8192) shows effective concentration of Blasocut BC 25 at the rate 227.4 mg l-1. According to OECD 302B, the biodegradations level of Emulzin H, Ecocool and BC 25 achieved 80% in 10 days. It can be stated that these MWFs have potential to ultimate degradation, but the statement has to be confirmed by a biodegradability test with other parameters than COD, which exhibits some disadvantages in testing O/W emulsions.

  19. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  20. Development and preliminary reliability of a multitasking assessment for executive functioning after concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Laurel B; Radomski, Mary Vining; Davidson, Leslie Freeman; Finkelstein, Marsha; Weightman, Margaret M; McCulloch, Karen L; Scherer, Matthew R

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES. Executive functioning deficits may result from concussion. The Charge of Quarters (CQ) Duty Task is a multitask assessment designed to assess executive functioning in servicemembers after concussion. In this article, we discuss the rationale and process used in the development of the CQ Duty Task and present pilot data from the preliminary evaluation of interrater reliability (IRR). METHOD. Three evaluators observed as 12 healthy participants performed the CQ Duty Task and measured performance using various metrics. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) quantified IRR. RESULTS. The ICC for task completion was .94. ICCs for other assessment metrics were variable. CONCLUSION. Preliminary IRR data for the CQ Duty Task are encouraging, but further investigation is needed to improve IRR in some domains. Lessons learned in the development of the CQ Duty Task could benefit future test development efforts with populations other than the military. Copyright © 2014 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

  1. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  2. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  3. Preliminary assessment report for Kent National Guard Facility (Installation 53065), 24410 Military Road, Kent, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ketels, P.; Aggarwal, P.; Rose, C.M.

    1993-08-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Washington Army National Guard property in Kent, Washington. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment

  4. Hellsgate Winter Range : Wildlife Mitigation Project. Preliminary Environmental Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1995-01-01

    The Bonneville Power Administration proposes funding the Hellsgate Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Project in cooperation with the Colville Convederated Tribes and Bureau of Indian Affairs. This Preliminary Environmental Assessment examines the potential environmental effects of acquiring and managing property for wildlife and wildlife habitat within a large project area. The Propose action is intended to meet the need for mitigation of wildlife and wild life habitat that was adversely affected by the construction of Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph Dams and their reservoirs.

  5. Preliminary assessment report for Fort William Henry Harrison, Montana Army National Guard, Helena, Montana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuWaldt, J.; Meyer, T.

    1993-07-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at a Montana Army National Guard (MTARNG) property near Helena, Montana. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment. This PA satisfies, for the Fort William Henry Harrison property, requirements of the Department of Defense Installation Restoration Program

  6. Use of static Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to determine pathogen risks in an unconfined carbonate aquifer used for Managed Aquifer Recharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toze, Simon; Bekele, Elise; Page, Declan; Sidhu, Jatinder; Shackleton, Mark

    2010-02-01

    Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is becoming a mechanism used for recycling treated wastewater and captured urban stormwater and is being used as a treatment barrier to remove contaminants such as pathogens from the recharged water. There is still a need, however, to demonstrate the effectiveness of MAR to reduce any residual risk of pathogens in the recovered water. A MAR research site recharging secondary treated wastewater in an unconfined carbonate aquifer was used in conjunction with a static Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to assess the microbial pathogen risk in the recovered water following infiltration and aquifer passage. The research involved undertaking a detailed hydrogeological assessment of the aquifer at the MAR site and determining the decay rates of reference pathogens from an in-situ decay study. These variables along with literature data were then used in the static QMRA which demonstrated that the recovered water at this site did not meet the Australian Guidelines for recycled water when used for differing private green space irrigation scenarios. The results also confirmed the importance of obtaining local hydrogeological data as local heterogeneity can influence of residence time in the aquifer which, in turn, influences the outcomes. The research demonstrated that a static QMRA can be used to determine the residual risk from pathogens in recovered water and showed that it can be a valuable tool in the preliminary design and operation of MAR systems and the incorporation of complementary engineered treatment processes to ensure that there is acceptable health risk from the recovered water. Crown Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Preliminary Development of Regulatory PSA Models for SFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Yong Won; Shin, Andong; Bae, Moohoon; Suh, Namduk; Lee, Yong Suk

    2013-01-01

    Well developed PRA methodology exists for LWR (Light Water Reactor) and PHWR (Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor). Since KAERI is developing a prototype SFR targeting to apply for a license by 2017, KINS needs to have a PRA models to assess the safety of this prototype reactor. The purpose of this study is to develop the regulatory PSA models for the independent verification of the SFR safety. Since the design of the prototype SFR is not mature yet, we have tried to develop the preliminary models based on the design data of KAERI's previous SFR design. In this study, the preliminary initiating events of level 1 internal event for SFR were selected through reviews of existing PRA (LWR, PRISM, ASTRID and KALIMER-600) models. Then, the event tree for each selected initiating event was developed. The regulatory PRA models of SFR developed are preliminary in a sense, because the prototype SFR design is not mature and provided yet. Still it might be utilized for the forthcoming licensing review in assessing the risk of safety issues and the configuration control of the design

  8. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  9. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  10. Defining the role of risk assessment in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) remedial investigation process at the DOE-OR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, P.D.; McGinn, C.W.; Purucker, S.T.; White, R.K.

    1994-08-01

    The risk assessment strategy that will be implemented on the Oak Ridge Reservation has been standardized to ensure consistency and technical defensibility in all risk assessment activities and is presented within this document. The strategy emphasizes using existing environmental data in screening risk analyses to aid in identifying chemicals of potential concern, operable units that could pursue a no further investigation determination, and operable units that may warrant early response actions. The screening risk analyses include a comparison of measured chemical concentrations to preliminary remediation goals, performing a most likely exposure and integration point assessment, and performing a screening ecological risk assessment. This document focuses heavily on the screening risk analyses and relies on existing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk assessment guidance to provide specific details on conducting baseline risk assessments. However, the document does contain a section on the baseline risk assessment process that details the exposure pathways to be evaluated on the Oak Ridge Reservation. This document will be used in conjunction with existing Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Environmental Restoration risk assessment standards, policies, procedures, and technical memoranda. The material contained herein will be periodically updated as the strategy is tried and tested and as the risk assessment methodology is revised. The primary purpose for this document is to present the proposed strategy to the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IV and receive concurrence or additional comments on the material presented herein

  11. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  12. A preliminary social and economic assessment of the Basalt Waste Isolation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cluett, C.; Bolton, P.; York, K.; Wood, M.; Radford, L.

    1981-07-01

    This report provides a preliminary assessment of the social and economic impacts that could be caused by the construction and operation of a nuclear waste repository on the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. This assessment involved assembling a comprehensive data base for the local Tri-Cities impact area and the surrounding region, establishing a network of local and regional contacts, making preliminary judgments about potential social impacts caused by the proposed repository, and recommending further research. This report concludes that growth effects under the anticipated work force scenario are expected to be relatively minor. With a strong public involvement program on the part of the project developers, including an ongoing dialogue with local and regional planners, potential socio-economic impacts can be anticipated and managed effectively. Specific recommendations are made for filling gaps in the available data, exploring key issues in more detail, and improving the analysis of social impacts. The report was prepared by the Battelle-Human Affairs Research Center in 1980 and 1981

  13. Preliminary assessment report for Fort Custer Training Center, Installation 26035, Augusta, Michigan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flaim, S.; Krokosz, M.

    1993-08-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Michigan Army National Guard property near Augusta, Michigan. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment. This PA satisfies, for the Fort Custer Training Center, phase I of the Department of Defense Installation Restoration Program. The environmentally significant operations associated with the property are (1) storage of hazardous materials and hazardous waste, (2) storage and dispensing of fuel, (3) washing of vehicles and equipment, and (4) weapons training ranges that may have accumulated lead

  14. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  15. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  16. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  17. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  18. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  19. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  20. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  1. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  2. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  3. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  4. 78 FR 14540 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Volatilization Assessment; Extension of Comment Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-06

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OPP-2008-0850; FRL-9380-7] Chlorpyrifos Registration... Federal Register issue of February 6, 2013, concerning Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary... volatilization assessment for the registration review of chlorpyrifos. EPA received requests from several...

  5. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, R. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Blohm, A. J. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Henriques, J. J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, E L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.

    2015-08-15

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure

  6. Preliminary environmental assessment for the satellite power system (SPS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-10-01

    A preliminary assessment of the impact of the Satellite Power System (SPS) on the environment is presented. Information that has appeared in documents referenced herein is integrated and assimilated. The state-of-knowledge as perceived from recently completed DOE-sponsored studies is disclosed, and prospective research and study programs that can advance the state-of-knowledge and provide an expanded data base for use in an assessment planned for 1980 are defined. Alternatives for research that may be implemented in order to achieve this advancement are also discussed in order that a plan can be selected which will be consistent with the fiscal and time constraints on the SPS Environmental Assessment Program. Health and ecological effects of microwave radiation, nonmicrowave effects on health and the environment (terrestrial operations and space operations), effects on the atmosphere, and effects on communications systems are examined in detail. (WHK)

  7. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  8. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  9. Fukushima. A preliminary assessment in July 2011; Fukushima. Eine vorlaeufige Bilanz im Juli 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michel, Rolf

    2011-07-01

    Four months after the reactor accidents in Fukushima Daiichi a preliminary assessment of the accident sequence vents is performed based on the available incomplete information. The following topics are discussed: initiating events and accident sequences, radioactive materials release and dispersion, fundamentals on radiation exposure following the accident in the nuclear power plant Fukushima Daiichi, contamination of food stuff, fission product release into the Pacific Ocean, source tern and external radiation exposure in the first year, preliminary radiological assessment, radiological situation throughout the different accident phases (radioactive cloud and fallout, late phase), estimation of radiation exposure in the first year due to decay of short-lived radionuclides based on the state end of July 2011, comparison of the reactor accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi.

  10. Environmental Risk Assessment for a Developing Country like India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Shamsuzzaman; Saha, Indranil

    2017-04-01

    The developing world is facing an increased risk of accelerating disaster losses. A concrete risk assessment along with subsequent management program involving identification, mitigation and preparedness will assist in rehabilitation and reconstruction once the disaster has struck is critical to subvert the magnitude of the loss incurred. A developing country like India has been taken as an example to highlight the elements mentioned. Most countries like India in the developing world is facing a mounting challenge to promote economic growth and bring down poverty. In this scenario, significant climatic changes will not only impact key economic sectors but also add to the existing conundrum. Sudden onset of natural calamities pose an increasing problem to the developing countries for which risk management strategies need to be forged in order to deal with such hazards. If this is not the case, then a substantial diversion of financial resources to reconstruction in the post disaster phase severely messes up the budget planning process. This compromises economic growth in the long run. Envisaging cost effective mitigation measures to minimize environmental and socio economic toll from natural disasters is the immediate requirement. Often it has been found that an apparent lack of historical data on catastrophic events makes hazard assessment an extremely difficult process. For this it is useful to establish preliminary maps to identify high risk zones and justify the utilization of funds. Vulnerability studies assess the physical, social and economic consequences that result from the occurrence of a severe natural phenomenon. Also they take into account public awareness of risk and the consequent ability to cope with such risks. Risk analysis collates information from hazard assessment and vulnerability studies in the form of an estimation of probable future losses in the face of similar hazards. Promoting different governmental schemes to catastrophe risk absorption

  11. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  12. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  13. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  14. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  15. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  16. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  17. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  18. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  19. A preliminary assessment of the true morels (Morchella) in Newfoundland and Labrador

    Science.gov (United States)

    A preliminary assessment of true morels (Morchella) from Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) was obtained by using DNA sequence data from portions of three genes to identify 20 collections from Newfoundland and one from a remote location in Labrador. To place this work in a broader context, data on 25 co...

  20. Preliminary postclosure risk assessment: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, candidate repository site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslinger, P.W.; Elwood, D.M.; Freshley, M.D.; Reimus, P.W.; Tanner, J.E.; Doctor, P.G.; Engel, D.W.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Strenge, D.L.; Van Luik, A.E.

    1989-10-01

    A study was conducted by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory for the US Department of Energy, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management, to estimate the postclosure risk, in terms of population health effects, of a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The risk estimates cover a time span of 1 million years following repository closure. Representative disruptive and intrusive events were selected and evaluated in addition to expected conditions. The estimates were generated assuming spent fuel as the waste form and included all important nuclides from inventory, half-life and dose perspectives. The base case results yield an estimate of 36 health effects over the first million years of repository operation. The doses attributed to the repository corresponds to about 0.1 percent of the doses received from natural background radiation. 16 refs., 1 fig

  1. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  3. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  4. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  5. Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

    2015-09-01

    This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  7. A literature-based preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

    1990-04-01

    The objectives of this study were to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitudes of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management system. The study, which was completed prior to passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system envisioned by the DOE in the 1985 ''Mission Plant for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program.'' As such, there may be statements in this paper that are not consistent with current DOE positions. The scope of this paper includes the repository, the integral Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility, and the transportation system that supports the repository and the MRS facility. Based on the results of this analysis, it is concluded that the radiological risks in the waste management system are small relative to nonradiological risks and relative to the risks of exposure to natural background radiation. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  8. Assessing the Risk of Sarcopenia in the Elderly: The Mini Sarcopenia Risk Assessment (MSRA) Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, A P; Micciolo, R; Rubele, S; Fantin, F; Caliari, C; Zoico, E; Mazzali, G; Ferrari, E; Volpato, S; Zamboni, M

    2017-01-01

    to validate the MSRA questionnaire proposed as prescreening tool for sarcopenia, in a population of community-dwelling elderly subjects. observational study. community dwelling elderly subjects. 274 community dwelling elderly subjects, 177 women and 97 men, aged 66-78 years. Based on EWGSOP diagnostic criteria subjects were classified as sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic. The Mini Sarcopenia Risk Assessment (MSRA) questionnaire, is composed of seven questions and investigates anamnestic and nutritional characteristics related to risk of sarcopenia onset (age, protein and dairy products consumption, number of meals per day, physical activity level, number of hospitalizations and weight loss in the last year). 33.5% of the study population, were classified as sarcopenic. With the 7-item MSRA score, subjects with a score of 30 or less, had a 4-fold greater risk of being sarcopenic than subjects with a score higher than 30 (OR:4.20;95% CI:2.26-8.06); area under the ROC curve was 0.786 (95% CI:0.725-0.847). In a logistic regression, considering as dependent variable the probability of being sarcopenic, and as independent variables the 7 items of the questionnaire, two items (number of meals and milk and dairy products consumption) showed non-significant diagnostic power. A 5-item score was then derived and the area under the ROC curve was 0.789 (95% IC:0.728-0.851). Taking into account the cost of false positive and false negative costs and the prevalence of sarcopenia, the "optimal" threshold of the original MSRA score (based on 7 items) is 30, with a sensitivity of 0.804 and a specificity of 0.505, while the "optimal" threshold of the MSRA score based on 5 items, is 45, with a sensitivity of 0.804 and a specificity of 0.604. this preliminary study shows that the MSRA questionnaire is predictive of sarcopenia and can be suggested as prescreening instrument to detect this condition. The use of a short form of the MSRA questionnaire improves the capacity to identify

  9. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  10. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  11. Criteria for safety-related nuclear plant operator actions: a preliminary assessment of available data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, P.M.; Bott, T.F.

    1980-01-01

    In the US, an effort has been underway for a number of years to develop a design standard to define when required manual operator action can be accepted as part of a nuclear plant design basis. Insufficient data are available to provide quantitative guidelines for the standard. To provide the necessary data base to support such standards and the necessary quantitative assessment of operator reliability, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a study at Oak National Laboratory to develop the data base. A preliminary assessment completed in April, 1979 concluded that sufficient data from US operating experience did not exist to provide an adequate data base. A program of research using full-scope nuclear plant simulators and results that are correlated to field data was suggested. That program was recently initiated. The approach, results and conclusions of the preliminary assessment are reviewed and the planned research program of simulator studies is summarised. (author)

  12. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  13. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  14. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  15. Preliminary geological suitability assessment for LILW disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomse, P.; Mele, I.

    2001-01-01

    Due to the growing need for a final disposal of LILW, the final solution for the short-lived LILW is the key issue of radioactive waste management in Slovenia at the moment. ARAO - the Slovenian Agency for Radwaste Management - is intensely involved in the re-initiated site selection process for a LILW repository. In this new process we are trying to combine as best as possible the technical, geologically-led and the advocacy-site selection processes. By a combination of technical and volunteer approach to the site selection we wish to guarantee high public involvement and sufficient flexibility of the process to adapt to specific conditions or new circumstances while the project is ongoing. In the technical phase, our tendency is to retain a larger number of potential areas/sites. We also keep open the possibility of choosing the type of repository. The decision between the surface and underground option will be made only once the site has been defined. In accordance with the IAEA recommendations the site selection process is divided into four stages: the conceptual and planning stage, area survey stage, site characterisation stage and site confirmation stage. Last year the area survey stage was started. In the preliminary geological suitability assessment the required natural predisposition of Slovene territory was assessed in order to locate geologically suitable formations. The assessment of natural conditions of the system was based on consideration of the main geological, hydro-geological and seismotectonic conditions. It was performed with ARC/INFO technology. The results are compiled in a map, showing potential areas for underground and surface disposal of LILW in Slovenia. It has been established that there is a potential suitability for both surface and underground disposal on about 10 000 km 2 of the Slovenian territory, which represents almost half of the entire Slovenian territory. These preliminary results are now being carefully re-examined. As an

  16. Computer aided approach for qualitative risk assessment of engineered systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, W.K.; Arendt, J.S.; Fussell, J.B.; Rooney, J.J.; Wagner, D.P.

    1978-01-01

    This paper outlines a computer aided methodology for determining the relative contributions of various subsystems and components to the total risk associated with an engineered system. Major contributors to overall task risk are identified through comparison of an expected frequency density function with an established risk criterion. Contributions that are inconsistently high are also identified. The results from this analysis are useful for directing efforts for improving system safety and performance. An analysis of uranium hexafluoride handling risk at a gaseous diffusion uranium enrichment plant using a preliminary version of the computer program EXCON is briefly described and illustrated

  17. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  18. Approach of fuzzy logic in the preliminary risk analysis of the upstream and downstream lines of an offshore petroleum production unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S.A. (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Maia Neto, Luiz

    2009-07-01

    This work consists of the application of a model of qualitative risk assessment based in fuzzy logic for the judgment of criticality of the scenarios of accident identified through the technique of preliminary hazard analysis in the upstream and downstream of an offshore oil production unit already in operation. The model based on fuzzy logic acts as substitute to the traditional Risks Matrix that uses subjective concepts for the categories of expected severity and frequency of the accidents. The structure of the employed model consists of 7 input variables, an internal variable and an output variable, all linked in accordance with the modules of analysis for each type of accident. The developed base of knowledge, that complete the expert system consists of membership functions developed for each one of the variables and a set of 219 distributed inference rules in the 7 different modules. The developed knowledge base, which incorporates the mechanisms of logical reasoning of specialists, assists and guides, with efficiency, the teams that carry through the preliminary hazard analyses with the use of a computer program having previously inserted routines. The employed model incorporates in the knowledge base of the program the existing concepts in the categories of frequency and severity, under the form of membership functions of the linguistic variable and the set of rules. With this, scales subdivided in ranges, defined on the basis of the existing direction present in the risks matrices are used to define the actions to be taken for the analyzed accident scenarios. (author)

  19. Baseline ecological risk assessment and remediation alternatives for a hydrocarbon-contaminated estuarine wetland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vedagiri, U.

    1993-01-01

    Prior to a property transaction, the groundwater at an industrial refinery site in New Jersey was found to be contaminated with a variety of petroleum-based organic compounds. The highly built-up site included an on-site estuarine wetland and was located in a developed, industrialized area near ecologically important estuarine marshes. A preliminary ecological risk assessment was developed on the basis of available data on site contamination and ecological resources. The onsite wetland and its user fauna were identified as the sensitive receptors of concern and the primary contaminant pathways wee identified. The ecological significance of the contamination was assessed with regard to the onsite wetland and in the context of its position within the landscape and surrounding land uses. The wetland exhibited a combination of impact and vitality, i.e., there were clearly visible signs of contaminant impact as well as a relatively complex and abundant food web. Because of its position within the developed landscape, the onsite wetland appeared to function as a refugium for wildlife despite the level of disturbance. The feasibility of achieving regulatory compliance through natural remediation was also examined with respect to the findings of the risk assessment and the resultant conclusions are discussed

  20. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  1. Assessment of risk to aquatic biota from elevated salinity -- a case study from the Hunter River, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschal, Monika

    2006-05-01

    An ecological risk assessment was performed on salinity levels of the Hunter River and its tributaries to respond to concerns that high salinity may be damaging aquatic ecosystems. Probabilistic techniques were used to assess likelihood and consequence, and hence the risk to aquatic biota from salinity. Continuous electrical conductivity distributions were used to describe the likelihood that high salinity would occur (exposure dataset) and toxicity values were compiled from the limited literature sources available to describe the consequence of high salinity (effects dataset). The assessment was preliminary in the sense that it modelled risk on the basis of existing data and did not undertake site-specific toxicity testing. Some sections of the Hunter River catchment have geologies that are saline because of their marine origins. Catchment development has increased the liberation rates of salts into surface-waters. Such modifying activities include coal-mining, power generation and land clearing. The aquatic biota of tributaries had a greater risk of impairment from high salinity than that of the Hunter River. High salinities in the tributaries were attributed to the combined factors of naturally saline geologies, increased liberation of salts due to modification of the landscape, and reduced dilution by flushing flows. A salinity guideline trigger value of 1100 mg L(-1) was recommended.

  2. Guidance for performing preliminary assessments under CERCLA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1991-09-01

    EPA headquarters and a national site assessment workgroup produced this guidance for Regional, State, and contractor staff who manage or perform preliminary assessments (PAs). EPA has focused this guidance on the types of sites and site conditions most commonly encountered. The PA approach described in this guidance is generally applicable to a wide variety of sites. However, because of the variability among sites, the amount of information available, and the level of investigative effort required, it is not possible to provide guidance that is equally applicable to all sites. PA investigators should recognize this and be aware that variation from this guidance may be necessary for some sites, particularly for PAs performed at Federal facilities, PAs conducted under EPA`s Environmental Priorities Initiative (EPI), and PAs at sites that have previously been extensively investigated by EPA or others. The purpose of this guidance is to provide instructions for conducting a PA and reporting results. This guidance discusses the information required to evaluate a site and how to obtain it, how to score a site, and reporting requirements. This document also provides guidelines and instruction on PA evaluation, scoring, and the use of standard PA scoresheets. The overall goal of this guidance is to assist PA investigators in conducting high-quality assessments that result in correct site screening or further action recommendations on a nationally consistent basis.

  3. Including ecosystem dynamics in risk assessment of radioactive waste in coastal regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumblad, L.; Kautsky, U.; Gilek, M.

    2000-01-01

    Radiation protection has mainly focused on assessing and minimising risks of negative effects on human health. Although some efforts have been made to estimate effects on non-human populations, modelling of radiation risks to other components of the ecosystem have often lead to more or less disappointing results. In this paper an ecosystem approach is suggested and exemplified with a preliminary 14 C model of a coastal Baltic ecosystem. Advantages with the proposed ecosystem approach are for example the possibility to detect important but previously neglected pathways to humans since the whole ecosystem is analysed. The results from the model indicate that a rather small share of hypothetical released 14 C would accumulate in biota due to large water exchange in the modelled area. However, modelled future scenarios imply opposite results, i.e. relatively high doses in biota, due to changes of the physical properties in the area that makes a larger accumulation possible. (author)

  4. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  5. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  6. A preliminary assessment of radiation effects on American Flagfish

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tzivaki, M.; Waller, E., E-mail: margarita.tzivaki@uoit.ca [University of Ontario Institute of Technology, Oshawa, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    In order to add to the knowledge base of radiation effects on non-human biota, it is important to define benchmark values for different species. An experimental set-up was designed to investigate effects from irradiation with Cs-137 to American Flagfish. Preliminary experiments to assess the suitability of the methodology were conducted by exposing Flagfish eggs to 44 h of ionizing radiation. The subsequent observation of the developing fry showed no effect on hatching. However, the mortality and observed vertebral malformations were increased with increasing absorbed dose which is suspected to be a result of developmental defects in the embryonic stage. (author)

  7. Preliminary bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equation for body composition assessment in young females from Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caicedo, J C; González-Correa, C H; González-Correa, C A

    2013-01-01

    A previous study showed that reported BIA equations for body composition are not suitable for Colombian population. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a preliminary BIA equation for body composition assessment in young females from Colombia, using hydrodensitometry as reference method. A sample of 30 young females was evaluated. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined to minimize the variability of BIA. Height, weight, BIA, residual lung volume (RV) and underwater weight (UWW) were measured. A preliminary BIA equation was developed (r 2 = 0.72, SEE = 2.48 kg) by stepwise multiple regression with fat-free mass (FFM) as dependent variable and weight, height and impedance measurements as independent variables. The quality of regression was evaluated and a cross-validation against 50% of sample confirmed that results obtained with the preliminary BIA equation is interchangeable with results obtained with hydrodensitometry (r 2 = 0.84, SEE = 2.62 kg). The preliminary BIA equation can be used for body composition assessment in young females from Colombia until a definitive equation is developed. The next step will be increasing the sample, including a second reference method, as deuterium oxide dilution (D 2 O), and using multi-frequency BIA (MF-BIA). It would also be desirable to develop equations for males and other ethnic groups in Colombia.

  8. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  9. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  10. CARDIOVASCULAR RISK ASSESSMENT IN PATIENTS WITH EARLY RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS WITHIN THE REMARCA STUDY: PRELIMINARY DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Novikova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Most patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA have a high or very high cardiovascular risk (CVR before therapy with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs. Objective: to evaluate the impact of antirheumatic therapy performed in accordance with the Treat-to-Target strategy on the progression of atherosclerosis and CVR in patients with early RA. Subjects and methods. This investigation enrolled 74 patients (72% women; median age, 56 years with early RA having moderate to high activity (median DAS28, 5.6 who had not previously received DMARDs and glucocorticoids (GCs. All patients were anticyclic citrullinated peptide antibody-positive and 87% of the patients were rheumatoid factor-positive. All patients received methotrexate (MT subcutaneously with dose escalation up to 25–30 mg/week, in case of its inefficiency at 3 months a biological agent (BA was added. After 6 months, 39% of the patients achieved remission; 19% had low; 35 and 7% had moderate and high disease activity, respectively. The majority (n = 20 (69% who achieved remission received MT monotherapy; 9 (31% – MT + BA whereas among the patients who did not achieve remission 15 (33% and 30 (67% respectively. At baseline and after 6 months of treatment, traditional CVR factors were assessed in all patients, by determining the total coronary risk by the SCORE scale, including that modified by EULAR (mSCORE, carotid artery atherosclerosis (CAA by duplex scanning data, coronary calcification (CC by multislice spiral computed tomography and by estimating the degree of CVR.Results and discussion. The rates of hypertension, overweight, abdominal obesity, low activity, smoking, and type 2 diabetes mellitus did not change significantly after 6 months. There were increases in the levels of total cholesterol by 7% (p < 0.05, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 9% (p<0.01, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 26% (p < 0.005, and body mass index (BMI by 1% (p < 0.01 and a decrease

  11. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  12. Preliminary assessment report for Redmond Army National Guard Facility, Installation 53120, Redmond, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ketels, P.; Aggarwal, P.

    1993-08-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Washington Army National Guard (WAARNG) property in Redmond, Washington. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment. This PA satisfies, for the Redmond ARNG property, Phase I of the Department of Defense Installation Restoration Program. The environmentally significant operations (ESOs) associated with the property are (1) supply/storage of hazardous materials, (2) weapons cleaning, (3) the underground storage tanks (USTs), and (4) the use of herbicides. These ESOs are no longer active because of the closure of OMS 10 activities in 1988

  13. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  14. Contribution for tier 1 of the ecological risk assessment of Cunha Baixa uranium mine (Central Portugal): I Soil chemical characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, R.; Antunes, S.C.; Marques, S.M.; Goncalves, F.

    2008-01-01

    Within the tier 1 of a site specific risk assessment, the pseudo-total concentrations (extracted with aqua regia) and the potential mobile fractions of metals were determined to perform a preliminary evaluation of risks posed by contaminated soils from an abandoned uranium mine (Mangualde, Central Portugal). Considering the mobile fractions of metals, extracted with artificial rain water, aluminium and uranium were the most concerning elements, since their concentrations were above soil quality criteria values (SQGVs) established for both elements. However, according to the evaluation based on potential mobile fractions of elements, rather than on pseudo-total metal concentrations the risks were limited to sites within the exploitation area, where contamination derives mainly from past in-situ leaching activities of pore ore as well as from the deposition of sludge from the effluent pond. The exclusion of other sites under evaluation, from the risk assessment process, requires additional data provided by soil screening ecotoxicological assays

  15. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  16. Development of a Preliminary Model for Evaluating Occupational Health and Safety Risk Management Maturity in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilal Kaassis

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Management of occupational health and safety (OHS risks is a crucial component of any business. Numerous investigations have shown that work-related injuries and deaths occur disproportionately in small-to-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and that this is clearly due to deficient management of OHS risks. The main goal of this work is to develop a base of indicators suitable for evaluating OHS risk management maturity in industrial SMEs. A preliminary model is then proposed for this evaluation, based on a small number of relevant indicators selected from a careful bibliographic review. The work begins with a critical review of the literature and analysis of known concepts, methods, tools and models of measurement of risk analysis maturity in order to extract relevant indicators. The most suitable indicators are then grouped to form the basis of a preliminary model for evaluating OHS risk management maturity in the SME setting. Our findings will help managers of SMEs make sound decisions in their quest to improve the OHS performance of their businesses.

  17. Preliminary assessment of potential underground stability (wedge and spalling) at Forsmark, Simpevarp and Laxemar sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Derek [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton (Canada). Geotechnical Engineering

    2005-12-15

    In SKB's Underground Design Premises the objective in the early design phase is to estimate if there is sufficient space for the repository at a site. One of the conditions that could limit the space available is stability of the underground openings, i.e., deposition tunnels and deposition boreholes. The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary assessment of the potential for wedge instability and spalling that may be encountered at the Forsmark, Simpevarp and Laxemar sites based on information from the site investigations program up to July 30, 2004. The rock mass spalling strength was defined using the in-situ results from SKB's Aespoe Pillar Stability Experiment and AECL's Mine-by Experiment. These experiments suggest that the rock mass spalling strength for crystalline rocks can be estimated as 0.57 of the mean laboratory uniaxial compressive strength. A probability-based methodology utilizing this in-situ rock mass spalling strength has been developed for assessing the risk for spalling in a repository at the Forsmark, Simpevarp and Laxemar sites. The in-situ stresses and the uniaxial compressive strength data from these sites were used as the bases for the analyses. Preliminary findings from all sites suggest that, generally, the risk for spalling increases as the depth of the repository increases, simply because the stress magnitudes increase with depth. The depth at which the risk for spalling is significant, depends on the individual sites which are discussed below. The greatest uncertainty in the spalling analyses for Forsmark is related to the uncertainty in the horizontal stress magnitudes and associated stress gradients with depth. The confidence in these analyses can only be increased by increasing the confidence in the stress and geology model for the site. From the analyses completed it appears that spalling in the deposition tunnels can be controlled by orienting the tunnels approximately parallel to the maximum horizontal

  18. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  19. Risk-informed analysis as a support to the preliminary design of the CEA GFR2400

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertrand, F.; Bassi, C.; Azria, P.; Bentivoglio, F.; Messie, A.; Balmain, M.

    2012-01-01

    The integration of safety issues in the early phase of the design of a 4. generation reactor of the concepts is expected. For this purpose, probabilistic insights are increasingly employed in the safety demonstration in combination with the deterministic approach in the frame of a so-called risk informed approach. The present paper deals with the safety assessment of the preliminary design of the GFR2400 developed by CEA and how it has been improved in order to fulfil deterministic criteria as well as to reach a risk level comparable to the generation III reactors. GFR2400 is a 2400 MWth, 3-loops, helium-cooled fast reactor developed at a pre-conceptual design stage whose secondary circuit is filled with a mixture of helium and nitrogen, the ternary circuit being filled with water vaporized in 3 steam generators according to a classical Rankine cycle. The resulting cycle efficiency is very close to 45 %. Considering the results obtained with a preliminary level 1 PSA (L1PSA) model, it emerged that an increased reliability of the DHR (Decay Heat Removal) function in high pressure conditions (not corresponding to a LOCA) was suitable to reduce the overall core damage frequency. On the other hand, some small break LOCA situations were not adequately mitigated according to the line of protection deterministic method. Both issues have been solved by design improvements. In addition, this final L1PSA model, characterized by success criteria based on transient calculations performed with the CATHARE2 code and performed in a perimeter extended to all representative internal initiating events at full operating power, permitted to propose design evolutions that did not increase significantly the CDF. In the same time, those evolutions enabled the DHR system to increase its redundancy level as required in the deterministic approach. Finally, a modified design has been reached implying a more extended covering of various accidental situations by means of a progressive DHR

  20. Preliminary Performance Assessment for Disposal of APT and CLWR/TEF Wastes at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhite, E.L.

    1998-01-01

    This section provides the descriptive information for understanding the analyses presented in this preliminary performance assessment. This section addresses the approach taken in the PA, provides a general description of the Savannah River Site E-Area low-level waste facility, and discusses the performance criteria used for evaluating performance

  1. Criteria for safety related nuclear plant operator actions: a preliminary assessment of available data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, P.M.; Bott, T.F.

    1982-01-01

    The need for a quantitative data base on the reliability of nuclear power plant operators has long been recognised by human factors and reliability analysts, and the great need for further assessment of operator performance under accident conditions has been dramatically emphasised by the incident at Three Mile Island-2. In the US, an effort has been under way for a number of years to develop a design standard to define when required manual operator action can be accepted as part of a nuclear plant design basis. To provide the necessary data base to support such standards and the necessary quantitative assessment of operator reliability, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a study at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to develop the data base. A preliminary assessment, completed in April 1979, concluded that sufficient data from US operating experience did not exist to provide an adequate data base. A programme of research using full-scope nuclear plant simulators and results that are correlated to field data was suggested. That programme was recently initiated. This paper reviews the approach, results and conclusions of the preliminary assessment and summarises the planned research programme of simulator studies. (author)

  2. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  3. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  4. Assessment of patient experience with unilateral vocal fold immobility: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, David O; McKiever, Monique E; Garrett, C Gaelyn; Jacobson, Barbara; Penson, David F

    2014-09-01

    Systematically moving toward patient-centered care for unilateral vocal fold immobility (UVFI) requires comprehensive understanding of the variability of actual patient experiences. This rigorous qualitative study assesses UVFI-related disability and proposes a preliminary taxonomy of UVFI patient experience. (1) Semistructured interviews and (2) taxonomy development. Consecutive UVFI patients presenting July to September, 2012, prospectively underwent open-ended interviews investigating how UVFI affected their quality of life (QOL) and had caused disability. Comments reported by >20% were synthesized into axes based on content similarity. Variables were arranged into a preliminary taxonomy of UVFI patient experience, which was evaluated for four attributes of face validity. The majority of 39 patients had "extensive" baseline voice use (56%) and an iatrogenic etiology (62%). Taxonomy of patient experience included three main axes of symptomatic classification: (1) voice, (2) swallowing, and (3) breathing-all with intrinsic (physical and emotional) and extrinsic (social) subaxes that describe major impacts on QOL. Voice complaints were 100% penetrant, whereas breathing and swallowing symptoms afflicted 76% and 66%, respectively, of interviewees. Of affected patients, solid and liquid dysphagia was experienced by 70% and 63%, respectively. Of dyspneic patients, shortness of breath existed with talking (97%) and exercise (72%). Persistent throat congestion (76%), weakened cough (62%), globus (62%), and dysfunctional valsalva (41%) were frequent. Patient experience with UVFI has been incompletely characterized. This qualitative assessment and preliminary taxonomy highlight several related patient experiences not well documented in the literature or incorporated into currently available metrics. Copyright © 2014 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Cloud-Based Smart Health Monitoring System for Automatic Cardiovascular and Fall Risk Assessment in Hypertensive Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, P; Orrico, A; Scala, P; Crispino, F; Pecchia, L

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe the design and the preliminary validation of a platform developed to collect and automatically analyze biomedical signals for risk assessment of vascular events and falls in hypertensive patients. This m-health platform, based on cloud computing, was designed to be flexible, extensible, and transparent, and to provide proactive remote monitoring via data-mining functionalities. A retrospective study was conducted to train and test the platform. The developed system was able to predict a future vascular event within the next 12 months with an accuracy rate of 84 % and to identify fallers with an accuracy rate of 72 %. In an ongoing prospective trial, almost all the recruited patients accepted favorably the system with a limited rate of inadherences causing data losses (<20 %). The developed platform supported clinical decision by processing tele-monitored data and providing quick and accurate risk assessment of vascular events and falls.

  6. Cost risk analysis of radioactive waste management Preliminary study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsstroem, J.

    2006-12-01

    This work begins with exposition of the basics of risk analysis. These basics are then applied to the Finnish radioactive waste disposal environment in which the nuclear power companies are responsible for all costs of radioactive waste management including longterm disposal of spent fuel. Nuclear power companies prepare cost estimates of the waste disposal on a yearly basis to support the decision making on accumulation of resources to the nuclear waste disposal fund. These cost estimates are based on the cost level of the ongoing year. A Monte Carlo simulation model of the costs of the waste disposal system was defined and it was used to produce preliminary results of its cost risk characteristics. Input data was synthesised by modifying the original coefficients of cost uncertainty to define a cost range for each cost item. This is a suitable method for demonstrating results obtainable by the model but it is not accurate enough for supporting decision making. Two key areas of further development were identified: the input data preparation and identifying and handling of (i.e. eliminating or merging) interacting cost elements in the simulation model. Further development in both of the mentioned areas can be carried out by co-operating with the power companies as they are the sources of the original data. (orig.)

  7. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  8. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  9. Functional Assessment and Injury Risk in a Professional Soccer Team

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Gómez-Piqueras

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At the last World Conference on Sport and Physical Therapy celebrated in Bern (Switzerland, 2015, it was confirmed that the functional skills of an athlete are a very important variable to be considered in the recovery of an injury. On the other hand, its use as a predictive risk tool still lacks solid evidence. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a battery of functional tests (FPT could be used as a preliminary measure for the season in order to identify the injury risk in a professional soccer team in the Spanish Second Division B League. Fifty-two soccer players (ages of 25.3 ± 4.6 years, 10.33% ± 0.9% fat were functionally assessed during two seasons (2012–2013 and 2013–2014 and analyzed from an injury perspective. A total of 125 injuries were recorded. The sample was grouped based on the number of injuries and the required absence days. Except for the bipodal vertical jump (CMJ, none of the functional tests revealed differences among the groups. The correlation study between the functional condition and the suffered injuries did not show any significant results.

  10. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  11. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  12. Preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1992. Volume 3, Model parameters: Sandia WIPP Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-12-29

    This volume documents model parameters chosen as of July 1992 that were used by the Performance Assessment Department of Sandia National Laboratories in its 1992 preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Ranges and distributions for about 300 modeling parameters in the current secondary data base are presented in tables for the geologic and engineered barriers, global materials (e.g., fluid properties), and agents that act upon the WIPP disposal system such as climate variability and human-intrusion boreholes. The 49 parameters sampled in the 1992 Preliminary Performance Assessment are given special emphasis with tables and graphics that provide insight and sources of data for each parameter.

  13. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  14. Application of preliminary risk analysis at marble finishing plants in Recife's metropolitan area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Melo Neto, Rútilo P; Kohlman Rabbani, Emilia R

    2012-01-01

    The finishing of marble occurs in quarries all over Brazil, being the most significant dimension of the ornamental stone sector, with 7,000 businesses. Recife's Metropolitan Area (RMR) contains approximately 106 marble quarries, 25 of them unionized. The study focused on the application of Preliminary Risk Analysis, conducted at two unionized quarries: M1, a small business; and the second, M2, considered a micro enterprise. In this analysis both the administrative and the productive sectors were evaluated. The fieldwork was done in the month of December 2010. The study revealed that the two quarries carried moderate risks in the administrative sector, mainly due to ergonomic factors, and that in the productive sectors the risks were high, specifically because of excess noise, dust material, and precarious electrical installations. Using the results of the qualitative analysis as a base, the need for quantitative study presents itself in order to determine the most adequate modes of protection to be of assistance in the management of these risks, guaranteeing the safety and health of the worker and consequently the improvement in productivity in this sector.

  15. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  16. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  17. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  18. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  19. Use of risk assessment methods for security design and analysis of nuclear and radioactive facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Andrade, Marcos C.; Jordao, Elizabete

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this work is to evaluate the applicability of risk assessment methods for analyzing the physical protection of nuclear and radioactive facilities. One of the important processes for physical protection in nuclear and radioactive facilities is the identifying of areas containing nuclear materials, structures, systems or components to be protected from sabotage, which could directly or indirectly lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. A survey of the international guidelines and recommendations about vital area identification, design basis threat (DBT), and the security of nuclear and radioactive facilities was carried out. The traditional methods used for quantitative risk assessment, like FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), Event and Decision Trees, Fault and Success Trees, Vulnerability Assessment, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Scenario Analysis, and Game Theory, among others, are highlighted. The applicability of such techniques to security issues, their pros and cons, the general resources needed to implement them, as data or support software, are analyzed. Finally, an approach to security design and analysis, beginning with a qualitative and preliminary examination to determine the range of possible scenarios, outcomes, and the systems to be included in the analyses, and proceeding to a progressively use of more quantitative techniques is presented. (author)

  20. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  1. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  2. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  3. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  4. Assessing the feasibility of the Healthy Life in Suriname Study: using advanced hemodynamics to evaluate cardiovascular risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jet Q. Aartman

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objectives To determine the feasibility of assessing population cardiovascular risk with advanced hemodynamics in the Healthy Life in Suriname (HELISUR study. Methods This was a preliminary study conducted in May – June 2012 using the Technical-Economic-Legal-Operational-Scheduling (TELOS method to assess the feasibility of the HELISUR—a large-scale, cross-sectional population study of cardiovascular risk factors and disease in Suriname. Suriname, a middle-income country in South America with a population of mostly African and Asian ethnicity, has a high risk of cardiovascular disease. A total of 135 volunteers 18 – 70 years of age participated. A health questionnaire was tested in a primary health care center, and non-invasive cardiovascular evaluations were performed in an academic health center. The cardiovascular evaluation included sitting, supine, and standing blood pressure, and intermediate endpoints, such as cardiac output, peripheral vascular resistance, pulse wave velocity, and augmentation index. Results The TELOS testing found that communicating by cellular phone was most effective for appointment adherence, and that completion of the questionnaire often required assistance from a trained interviewer; modifications to improve the clarity of the questions are recommended. Regarding the extended cardiovascular assessments of peripheral and central hemodynamics, the findings showed these to be technically and operationally feasible and well tolerated by participants, in terms of burden and duration. Conclusions Findings of this feasibility assessment indicate that large-scale, detailed evaluations of cardiovascular risk, including a questionnaire and advanced central and peripheral hemodynamics, are feasible in a high-risk population in a middle-income setting.

  5. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  6. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  7. Elements at risk as a framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities to landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Papathoma-Köhle

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of the vulnerability of communities prone to landslide related disasters is a topic that is growing in importance. Few studies discuss this issue and limited research has been carried out on the relationship between types of landslide and their potential impact on buildings and infrastructure. We outline a framework to undertake an assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to landslide utilising a similar framework used for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage. The framework is based on the development of an "elements at risk database" that takes into consideration the characteristics and use of the buildings, their importance for the local economy and the characteristics of the inhabitants (population density, age and so forth. The attributes that affect vulnerability are imported and examined within a GIS database which is used to visualise the physical, human and economic vulnerability. The results may have important implications for disaster management and emergency planning, and the database can be used by various end-users and stakeholders such as insurance companies, local authorities and the emergency services. The approach presented here can be integrated in to a wider more detailed "Framework for Landslide Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Communities". We illustrate the potential of this framework and present preliminary results from Lichtenstein, Baden Württemberg, Germany.

  8. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  9. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  10. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  11. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  12. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  13. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  14. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  16. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  17. Preliminary psycometric assessment of the Brazilian version of the DISABKIDS Atopic Dermatitis Module.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deon, Keila Cristiane; Santos, Danielle Maria de Souza Sério dos; Bullinger, Monika; Santos, Claudia Benedita dos

    2011-12-01

    To assess preliminary psychometric properties of the Brazilian Portuguese version of a questionnaire for measuring health-related quality of life in children and adolescents with atopic dermatitis. Cross-sectional study with a sample consisting of 52 children and adolescents aged 8 to 18 diagnosed with atopic dermatitis, and their parents or caregivers, selected at the dermatology department of a university hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeast Brazil, in 2009. Construct validity, internal consistency and agreement between the responses of children and adolescents and their parents or caregivers were assessed in the Brazilian Portuguese version of the DISABKIDS-Atopic Dermatitis Module (ADM). Adequate internal consistency was found with Cronbach's alpha coefficients of 0.7024/0.8124 and 0.7239/0.8604. The multitrait multimethod analysis for assessing convergent validity showed measures higher than 0.30 for all items. The analysis showed good discriminant validity. Agreement between child self-report and parent proxy-report was evaluated using intra-class correlation with measures impact and social stigma of disease of 0.8173 and 0.7629, respectively. The study results showed that the DISABKIDS-ADM can be used by Brazilian researchers after its complete validation as it showed adequate preliminary psychometric properties and can be considered a valid, reliable instrument.

  18. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  19. Chemical stimulation in unconventional hydrocarbons extraction in the USA: a preliminary environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutra, Emilie; Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

    2016-04-01

    While the exploitation of unconventional resources recently shows an extensive development, the stimulation techniques in use in this domain arouse growing public concerns. Often in the shadow of the disputed hydraulic fracturing process, the matrix acidizing is however a complementary or alternative procedure to enhance the reservoir connectivity. Although acidizing processes are widespread within the traditional hydrocarbons sources exploration, the matrix acidizing does not appear to be commonly used in unconventional hydrocarbons formations due to their low permeability. Nonetheless, this process has been recently applied to the Monterey formation, a shale oil play in California. These stimulation fluids are composed by various chemicals, what represents a matter of concern for public as well as for authorities. As a consequence, a risk assessment implying an exposure and toxicity analysis is needed. Focusing on site surface accidents, e.g., leak of a chemical from a storage tank, we develop in this study concentration scenarios for different exposure pathways to estimate the potential environmental risk associated with the use of specific hazardous substances in the matrix acidizing process for unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs in the USA. Primary, information about the usage of different hazardous substances have been collected in order to extract the most frequently used chemicals. Afterwards, a probabilistic estimation of the environmental risk associated with the use of these chemicals is carried out by comparing the Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) distribution with the Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNEC) value. The latter is collected from a literature review, whereas the PEC is estimated as probability distribution concentrations in different environmental compartments (e.g., soil) built upon various predefined accident scenarios. By applying a probabilistic methodology for the concentrations, the level at which the used chemicals

  20. A Preliminary Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul

    2017-04-01

    The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and

  1. Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

  2. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  3. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  4. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  5. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  6. Assessment of ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sample, B.

    1995-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites generally focuses on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area. While appropriate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination, this approach is not adequate for sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites. These species may therefore be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a site (and therefore exposure and risk) by wildlife is dependent upon the availability of habitat. Availability and distribution of habitat on the ORR was determined using satellite imagery. The proportion of habitat within contaminated areas was then determined by overlaying boundaries of contaminated areas (Operable Units or OUs) on the ORR habitat map. The likelihood of contaminant exposure was estimated by comparing the habitat requirements for wildlife species to the proportion of suitable habitat within OUs. OU-specific contaminant concentrations in surface water, soil, or biota were used to estimate the magnitude of risk presented by each DU. The proportion of ORR-wide population likely to be exposed was estimated using literature-derived population density data for each endpoint. At present, due to major data gaps (i.e., lack of data for all OUs, site-specific population density or habitat use data, etc.) uncertainty associated with conclusions is high. Results of this assessment must therefore be considered to be preliminary

  7. Towards large scale stochastic rainfall models for flood risk assessment in trans-national basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serinaldi, F.; Kilsby, C. G.

    2012-04-01

    While extensive research has been devoted to rainfall-runoff modelling for risk assessment in small and medium size watersheds, less attention has been paid, so far, to large scale trans-national basins, where flood events have severe societal and economic impacts with magnitudes quantified in billions of Euros. As an example, in the April 2006 flood events along the Danube basin at least 10 people lost their lives and up to 30 000 people were displaced, with overall damages estimated at more than half a billion Euros. In this context, refined analytical methods are fundamental to improve the risk assessment and, then, the design of structural and non structural measures of protection, such as hydraulic works and insurance/reinsurance policies. Since flood events are mainly driven by exceptional rainfall events, suitable characterization and modelling of space-time properties of rainfall fields is a key issue to perform a reliable flood risk analysis based on alternative precipitation scenarios to be fed in a new generation of large scale rainfall-runoff models. Ultimately, this approach should be extended to a global flood risk model. However, as the need of rainfall models able to account for and simulate spatio-temporal properties of rainfall fields over large areas is rather new, the development of new rainfall simulation frameworks is a challenging task involving that faces with the problem of overcoming the drawbacks of the existing modelling schemes (devised for smaller spatial scales), but keeping the desirable properties. In this study, we critically summarize the most widely used approaches for rainfall simulation. Focusing on stochastic approaches, we stress the importance of introducing suitable climate forcings in these simulation schemes in order to account for the physical coherence of rainfall fields over wide areas. Based on preliminary considerations, we suggest a modelling framework relying on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale

  8. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  9. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  10. Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaty, James R.; Starr, Brett R.; Gowan, John W., Jr.

    2008-01-01

    Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

  11. Preliminary dose assessment of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    From the major accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station, a plume of airborne radioactive fission products was initially carried northwesterly toward Poland, thence toward Scandinavia and into Central Europe. Reports of the levels of radioactivity in a variety of media and of external radiation levels were collected in the Department of Energy's Emergency Operations Center and compiled into a data bank. Portions of these and other data which were obtained directly from published and official reports were utilized to make a preliminary assessment of the extent and magnitude of the external dose to individuals downwind from Chernobyl. Radioactive 131 I was the predominant fission product. The time of arrival of the plume and the maximum concentrations of 131 I in air, vegetation and milk and the maximum reported depositions and external radiation levels have been tabulated country by country. A large amount of the total activity in the release was apparently carried to a significant elevation. The data suggest that in areas where rainfall occurred, deposition levels were from ten to one-hundred times those observed in nearby ''dry'' locations. Sufficient spectral data were obtained to establish average release fractions and to establish a reference spectra of the other nuclides in the release. Preliminary calculations indicated that the collective dose equivalent to the population in Scandinavia and Central Europe during the first year after the Chernobyl accident would be about 8 x 10 6 person-rem. From the Soviet report, it appears that a first year population dose of about 2 x 10 7 person-rem (2 x 10 5 Sv) will be received by the population who were downwind of Chernobyl within the U.S.S.R. during the accident and its subsequent releases over the following week. 32 refs., 14 figs., 20 tabs

  12. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  13. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  14. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  15. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  16. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  17. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  18. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  19. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  20. Preliminary Field Tests and Long-Term Monitoring as a Method of Design Risk Mitigation: A Case Study of Gdańsk Deepwater Container Terminal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miśkiewicz Mikołaj

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Appropriate risk assessment plays a fundamental role in the design. . The authors propose a possible method of design risk mitigation, which follows recommendations included in Eurocode 7. The so-called “Observational Method” (OM can produce savings in costs and programmes on engineering projects without compromising safety. The case study presented is a complex design solution that deals with the heavy foundations of a gantry crane beam as one of the elements of a Deepwater Container Terminal extension. The paper presents a detailed process of the design of the rear crane beam being a part of the brand new berth, together with its static analysis, as well as the long-term results of observations, which have revealed the real performance of the marine structure. The case presented is based on excessive preliminary field tests and technical monitoring of the structure, and is an example of a successful OM implementation and design risk mitigation.

  1. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  2. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  3. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2000-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

  4. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  5. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  6. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  7. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  8. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  9. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  10. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  11. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  12. Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

    2009-04-01

    There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

  13. Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turturro, A; Hart, R W

    1987-01-01

    A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

  14. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  15. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  16. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  18. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  19. Ecological risk assessment on a cadmium contaminated soil landfill-a preliminary evaluation based on toxicity tests on local species and site-specific information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, C.-M.; Liu, M.-C.

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, methodology of ecological risk assessment has been developed and applied frequently for addressing various circumstances where ecological impacts are suspected or have occurred due to environmental contamination; however, its practice is very limited in Taiwan. In 1982, brown rice from rice paddy fields in Da-Tan, Tau-Yuan, was found to be contaminated with Cd and Pb due to illegal discharges of wastewater, known as the 'Cd rice' incidence. Cadmium laden soil was transferred to a constructed landfill in an industrial park 15 years after the incident. Possible leakage of the landfill was suspected by committee members of a supervising board for the remediation process, and a preliminary ecological risk evaluation was requested. A possible risk scenario was that groundwater contamination due to the leachate containing Cd and Pb from the landfill could result in pollution of coastal water, and subsequently produce toxic effects to aquatic organisms. Chemical dissipation in groundwater systems was simulated and short-term chronic toxicity tests on larvae of three local aquatic species were also performed to determine the no-observed adverse-effect concentrations (NOAECs), as well as the predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs), of the two metals in the organisms tested. The hazard quotient (HQ), the ratio of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) to PNECs, was used for risk characterization. A worst-case-scenario calculation showed that the maximum Cd concentration at 60 m and farther downstream from the site in the groundwater system would be 0.0028 mg l -1 with a maximum initial concentration of 0.65 mg l -1 in the leachate, while for Pb, the highest concentration of 0.044 mg l -1 would be reached at a distance of 40 m and farther, which was based on an initial concentration of 4.4 mg l -1 in the leachate; however, both cases would only occur 80 years after the initiation of leakage. A presumed dilution factor of 100 was used to calculate

  20. Shallow-land burial of low-level radioactive wastes: preliminary simulations of long-term health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.; Little, C.A.; Emerson, C.J.; Hiromoto, G.

    1982-01-01

    PRESTO, a computer code developed for the Environmental Protection Agency for the evaluation of possible health effects associated with shallow-land rad-waste burial areas, has been used to perform simulations for three such sites. Preliminary results for the 1000 y period following site closure suggest that shallow burial, at properly chosen sites, is indeed an appropriate disposal practice for low-level wastes. Periods of maximum risk to subject populations are also inferred

  1. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  2. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  3. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  4. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  5. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  6. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  7. Preliminary risk analysis applied to the handling of health-care waste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carvalho S.M.L.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Between 75% and 90% of the waste produced by health-care providers no risk or is "general" health-care waste, comparable to domestic waste. The remaining 10-25% of health-care waste is regarded as hazardous due to one or more of the following characteristics: it may contain infectious agents, sharps, toxic or hazardous chemicals or it may be radioactive. Infectious health-care waste, particularly sharps, has been responsible for most of the accidents reported in the literature. In this work the preliminary risks analysis (PRA technique was used to evaluate practices in the handling of infectious health-care waste. Currently the PRA technique is being used to identify and to evaluate the potential for hazard of the activities, products, and services from facilities and industries. The system studied was a health-care establishment which has handling practices for infectious waste. Thirty-six procedures related to segregation, containment, internal collection, and storage operation were analyzed. The severity of the consequences of the failure (risk that can occur from careless management of infectious health-care waste was classified into four categories: negligible, marginal, critical, and catastrophic. The results obtained in this study showed that events with critics consequences, about 80%, may occur during the implementation of the containment operation, suggesting the need to prioritize this operation. As a result of the methodology applied in this work, a flowchart the risk series was also obtained. In the flowchart the events that can occur as a consequence of a improper handling of infectious health-care waste, which can cause critical risks such as injuries from sharps and contamination (infection from pathogenic microorganisms, are shown.

  8. Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkeroe, Topi

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

  9. Preliminary assessment of costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by barge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobin, R.L.; Meshkov, N.K.; Jones, R.H.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the costs and risks associated with transporting spent fuel by barge. The barge movements would be made in combination with rail movements to transport spent fuel from plants to a repository. For the purpose of this analysis, three candidate repository sites are analyzed: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, Deaf Smith, Texas, and Hanford, Washington. This report complements a report prepared by Sandia National Laboratories in 1984 that analyzes the costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by rail and by truck to nine candidate repository sites

  10. Landscape susceptibility, hazard and risk assessments along pipeline corridors in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blais-Stevens, A.; Couture, R.; Page, A. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Geological Survey of Canada; Koch, J.; Clague, J.J. [Simon Fraser Univ., Burnaby, BC (Canada); Lipovsky, P.S. [Yukon Geological Survey, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This article discussed work that was carried out to inventory landslides and assess hazards along two proposed gas-pipeline routes in the North. Landslide inventories and hazard assessments are necessary to quantify and qualify the risk of environmental impacts from landslides on linear infrastructure. The Yukon Alaska Highway Pipeline and the Mackenzie Gas Project Pipeline, which will both be over 800 kilometres in length, will cross harsh landscapes characterized by permafrost terrain and will be at risk from geological hazards, including landslides with debris flows, earthquakes, subsidence, and permafrost degradation. The work involved inventorying and mapping landslides via aerial photography and field visits to identify the frequency-magnitude relationships for debris flow fans along the route and the creation of qualitative parametric landslide maps for both proposed pipeline corridors. A good correlation was found between actual landslide distribution and the landslide susceptibility maps. For the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Corridor, most landslides have occurred in fine unconsolidated sediments and shallow slopes. Landslides in the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor mostly happened in unconsolidated sediments, but a few took place in bedrock with high relief. The preliminary investigation revealed that a slope hazard exists in both corridors and must be taken into account during pipeline development. The results are intended to facilitate better decision-making for planning, constructing, and maintaining safe and economically viable pipeline routes in Northern Canada. The mapping methodology was outlined. 13 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  11. Valdez air health study - Exposure monitoring and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, D.R.; Mikkelsen, R.

    1991-01-01

    In Valdez, Alaska there is concern about exposure of the public to benzene and other light hydrocarbons emitted during the loading of tankers from the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. As part of an overall risk assessment, the Valdez Air Health Study, a personal, indoor and outdoor air sampling program patterned after EPA's TEMA Study was designed and carried out. A unique feature of the study is that, during sampling periods, SF 6 tracer was released at the terminal site to represent terminal hydrocarbon emissions to provide a basis for directly quantitating any contribution of terminal emissions to personal exposure. Sixty citizens at Valdez were selected to wear vests containing sampling equipment for 24-hour periods summer and winter. At the homes of 30 of the participants simultaneous indoor and outdoor samples for hydrocarbons and tracer were collected during the period that each participant collected personal air samples. The paper reviews the design of the program, details of the procedures used, results of the August, 1990 program and preliminary results from the February-March, 1991 program

  12. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  13. Preliminary remediation goals for use at the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-06-01

    This report presents Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRGs) for use in human health risk assessment efforts under the United States Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office Environmental Restoration (ER) Division. Chemical-specific PRGs are concentration goals for individual chemicals for specific medium and land use combinations. The PRGs are referred to as risk-based because they have been calculated using risk assessment procedures. Risk-based calculations set concentration limits using both carcinogenic or noncarcinogenic toxicity values under specific exposure pathways. The PRG is a concentration that is derived from a specified excess cancer risk level or hazard quotient. This report provides the ER Division with standardized PRGs which are integral to the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study process. By managing the assumptions and systems used in PRG derivation, the Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program will be able to control the level of quality assurance associated with these risk-based guideline values

  14. Preliminary remediation goals for use at the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-06-01

    This report presents Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRGs) for use in human health risk assessment efforts under the United States Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office Environmental Restoration (ER) Division. Chemical-specific PRGs are concentration goals for individual chemicals for specific medium and land use combinations. The PRGs are referred to as risk-based because they have been calculated using risk assessment procedures. Risk-based calculations set concentration limits using both carcinogenic or noncarcinogenic toxicity values under specific exposure pathways. The PRG is a concentration that is derived from a specified excess cancer risk level or hazard quotient. This report provides the ER Division with standardized PRGs which are integral to the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study process. By managing the assumptions and systems used in PRG derivation, the Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program will be able to control the level of quality assurance associated with these risk-based guideline values.

  15. Assessing carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic in farmed smeltfish (Ayu, Plecoglossus altirelis) in aseniasis-endemic area of Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J.-J.; Jang, C.-S.; Liang, C.-P.; Liu, C.-W.

    2008-01-01

    This study spatially analyzed potential carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic (As) contents in aquacultural smeltfish (Plecoglossus altirelis) from the Lanyang Plain of northeastern Taiwan. Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) was adopted to reproduce As exposure distributions in groundwater based on their three-dimensional variability. A target cancer risk (TR) associated with ingesting As in aquacultural smeltfish was employed to evaluate the potential risk to human health. The probabilistic risk assessment determined by Monte Carlo simulation and SIS is used to propagate properly the uncertainty of parameters. Safe and hazardous aquacultural regions were mapped to elucidate the safety of groundwater use. The TRs determined from the risks at the 95th percentiles exceed one millionth, indicating that ingesting smeltfish that are farmed in the highly As-affected regions represents a potential cancer threat to human health. The 95th percentile of TRs is considered in formulating a strategy for the aquacultural use of groundwater in the preliminary stage

  16. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  17. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  18. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  19. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  20. How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hommen, Udo; Schmitt, Walter; Heine, Simon; Brock, Theo Cm; Duquesne, Sabine; Manson, Phil; Meregalli, Giovanna; Ochoa-Acuña, Hugo; van Vliet, Peter; Arts, Gertie

    2016-01-01

    This case study of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field water bodies. A standard European Union (EU) risk assessment for an example herbicide based on macrophyte laboratory tests indicated risks for several exposure scenarios. Three of these scenarios are further analyzed using effect models for 2 aquatic macrophytes, the free-floating standard test species Lemna sp., and the sediment-rooted submerged additional standard test species Myriophyllum spicatum. Both models include a toxicokinetic (TK) part, describing uptake and elimination of the toxicant, a toxicodynamic (TD) part, describing the internal concentration-response function for growth inhibition, and a description of biomass growth as a function of environmental factors to allow simulating seasonal dynamics. The TK-TD models are calibrated and tested using laboratory tests, whereas the growth models were assumed to be fit for purpose based on comparisons of predictions with typical growth patterns observed in the field. For the risk assessment, biomass dynamics are predicted for the control situation and for several exposure levels. Based on specific protection goals for macrophytes, preliminary example decision criteria are suggested for evaluating the model outputs. The models refined the risk indicated by lower tier testing for 2 exposure scenarios, while confirming the risk associated for the third. Uncertainties related to the experimental and the modeling approaches and their application in the risk assessment are discussed. Based on this case study and the assumption that the models prove suitable for risk assessment once fully evaluated, we recommend that 1) ecological scenarios be developed that are also

  1. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  2. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  3. Ecological risk, source and preliminary assessment of metals in the surface sediments of Chabahar Bay, Oman Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agah, Homira; Saleh, Abolfazl; Bastami, Kazem Darvish; Fumani, Neda Sheijooni

    2016-01-01

    In this study, concentrations of Aluminum (Al), Iron (Fe), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Nickel (Ni), Vanadium (V), Zinc (Zn), Arsenic (As), Cobalt (Co) and lead (Pb) in the surface sediments from Chabahar Bay were studied to assess the degree of heavy metal pollution as a consequence of natural and anthropogenic sources. Metal contents in the sediments were observed in the order of: Al > Fe > Cr > V > Ni > Zn > Cu > > As > Pb > Co. According to enrichment factor (EF), Arsenic was higher than 1.5 at some sites, indicating anthropogenic inputs. Contents of Ni, As and Cr in the some sampling sites were higher than sediment quality guideline implying adverse impacts of these metals. Based on potential ecological risk (PER), the Chabahar Bay had low ecological risk. - Highlights: •Metals and major elements were determined in surface sediments from Chabahar Bay, Oman Sea. •EF values indicated non-enriched to moderate-enriched. •Ni, As and Cr were above ERL values.

  4. A preliminary risk assessment of organochlorines accumulated in fish to the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northwestern waters of Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, C.L.H.; Xu, Y.; Lam, J.C.W.; Connell, D.W.; Lam, M.H.W.; Nicholson, S.; Richardson, B.J.; Lam, P.K.S.

    2006-01-01

    The Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin is considered threatened due to several factors including pollution in Hong Kong and the risks due to consumption of fish tainted with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides were assessed. Six species of fish Collichthys lucida, Pseudosciaena crocea, Johnius sp., Thryssa sp., Mugil sp. and Trichiurus sp., which comprise the main prey species of humpback dolphins were collected for analyses. Risks due to total PCBs, total TEQs, PCB 118 and the pesticides were assessed with the use of toxicity reference values as the threshold reference benchmarks. The calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that the risks associated with organochlorines were generally low. The highest RQ was associated with total TEQs suggesting that dioxin-like PCBs may pose the highest risk to the dolphins. The HCHs, total PCBs and heptachlor had comparatively high RQs and thus they should also be the priority organochlorines that would require further investigation. - Fish tainted with dioxin-like PCBs might pose a risk to Hong Kong dolphins

  5. A preliminary risk assessment of organochlorines accumulated in fish to the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northwestern waters of Hong Kong

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hung, C.L.H. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Xu, Y. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Lam, J.C.W. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Connell, D.W. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); School of Public Health, Griffith University, Logan Campus, University Drive, Meadowbrook, QLD 4131 (Australia); Lam, M.H.W. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Nicholson, S. [Meinhardt Mouchel Limited, 12/F, MLC Tower, 248 Queen' s Road East, Wanchai, Hong Kong (China); Richardson, B.J. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Lam, P.K.S. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)]. E-mail: bhpksl@cityu.edu.hk

    2006-11-15

    The Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin is considered threatened due to several factors including pollution in Hong Kong and the risks due to consumption of fish tainted with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides were assessed. Six species of fish Collichthys lucida, Pseudosciaena crocea, Johnius sp., Thryssa sp., Mugil sp. and Trichiurus sp., which comprise the main prey species of humpback dolphins were collected for analyses. Risks due to total PCBs, total TEQs, PCB 118 and the pesticides were assessed with the use of toxicity reference values as the threshold reference benchmarks. The calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that the risks associated with organochlorines were generally low. The highest RQ was associated with total TEQs suggesting that dioxin-like PCBs may pose the highest risk to the dolphins. The HCHs, total PCBs and heptachlor had comparatively high RQs and thus they should also be the priority organochlorines that would require further investigation. - Fish tainted with dioxin-like PCBs might pose a risk to Hong Kong dolphins.

  6. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  7. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  8. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  9. Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

    2011-03-01

    The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  11. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  12. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  13. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  14. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  15. Assessing internet addiction using the parsimonious internet addiction components model—A preliminary study.

    OpenAIRE

    Kuss, D.J.; Shorter, G.W.; Rooij, A.J. van; Griffiths, M.D.; Schoenmakers, T.M.

    2014-01-01

    Internet usage has grown exponentially over the last decade. Research indicates that excessive Internet use can lead to symptoms associated with addiction. To date, assessment of potential Internet addiction has varied regarding populations studied and instruments used, making reliable prevalence estimations difficult. To overcome the present problems a preliminary study was conducted testing a parsimonious Internet addiction components model based on Griffiths’ addiction components (Journal ...

  16. Preliminary Shielding Assessment for the IFF System in the RAON Heavy-ion Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Cheol Woo; Lee, Youngouk; Kim, Jong Won; Kim, Mijung

    2014-01-01

    A heavy-ion accelerator facility is under a development in Korea to use in the basic science research and various application areas. In this facility, the In-Flight Fragment (IFF) target and isotope separator has been designed to produce various isotopes and transport the interesting isotopes into the experimental rooms. In this work, preliminary radiation shielding assessment was performed for the IFF target room

  17. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Preliminary assessment of the controlled release of radionuclides from waste packages containing borosilicate waste glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, D.M.; McGrail, B.P.; Apted, M.J.; Engle, D.W.; Eslinger, P.W.

    1990-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary assessment of the release-rate for an engineered barriers subsystem (EBS) containing waste packages of defense high-level waste borosilicate glass at geochemical and hydrological conditions similar to the those at Yucca Mountain. The relationship between the proposed Waste Acceptance Preliminary Specifications (WAPS) test of glass- dissolution rate and compliance with the NRC's release-rate criterion is also evaluated. Calculations are reported for three hierarchical levels: EBS analysis, waste-package analysis, and waste-glass analysis. The following conclusions identify those factors that most acutely affect the magnitude of, or uncertainty in, release-rate performance

  19. Preliminary assessment report for Grubbs/Kyle Training Center, Smyrna/Rutherford County Regional Airport, Installation 47340, Smyrna, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, C.; Stefano, J.

    1993-07-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Tennessee Army National Guard (TNARNG) property near Smyrna, Tennessee. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment. This PA satisfies, for the Grubbs/Kyle Training Center property, the requirement of the Department of Defense Installation Restoration Program

  20. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  1. Preliminary assessment of the possibility of supporting the decomposition of biodegradable packaging

    OpenAIRE

    Niekraś Lidia; Moliszewska Ewa

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a preliminary evaluation of the possibility of using grass biomass from a sports field as a compost ingredient which positively affects the degree of decomposition of the biodegradable wrappings. For 5 months the biodegradable bags were stored, both empty and filled with organic waste in the heap of grass clippings. After that period, fragments of the bags were observed under the microscope and then assessed the state of their decomposition. The results indicate that the...

  2. Preliminary assessment of fleets covered by the Energy Policy Act

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S.; Davis, S.C.; Wang, M.Q. [and others

    1994-12-31

    To facilitate the goal of decreasing oil imports by 10 percent by the year 2000 and 30 percent by 2010, two sections of the Energy Policy Act encourage and mandate alternative fuel vehicles in the acquisition of fleet vehicles. The first step in estimating the contribution of these mandates toward meeting the aforementioned goal entails identifying affected fleets. This paper presents a preliminary assessment of potential vehicle fleet coverage. Only a limited number of companies in the methanol, ethanol, and hydrogen industries are likely to quality for this mandate. Whereas, many of the oil producers, petroleum refiners, and electricity companies are likely to be regulated.

  3. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  4. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  5. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  6. 76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-27

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft environmental assessment for the proposed...-2817 before coming. The petition, draft environmental assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are...

  7. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  9. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  10. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

  11. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  12. Identification and risk assessment of unknown contaminants migrating from Food Contact Materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pieke, Eelco Nicolaas

    The exposure of humans to possibly thousands of chemical compounds through food poses a health risk that is questioning our ability to ensure high standards for food safety. Food contact materials (FCM) are a major source of extraneous chemical compounds in food, yet not much knowledge is available...... interpretations. Risk prioritization is successful in classifying estimated risk based on predicted exposure and predicted hazard, and is valuable for to preliminary RA studies. The overarching strategy in this study shows that explorative techniques are valuable tools to help ensure food safety in the future...

  13. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  14. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  15. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  16. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

    1992-07-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  17. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, Patrick

    1992-01-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  18. Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badal, J.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; González, Á.

    2005-01-01

    Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence...... of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number...... the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out...

  19. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  20. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  1. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  2. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  3. A new methodology for assessment of pectus excavatum correction after bar removal in Nuss procedure: Preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes-Fonseca, João; Vilaça, João L; Henriques-Coelho, Tiago; Direito-Santos, Bruno; Pinho, António C M; Fonseca, Jaime C; Correia-Pinto, Jorge

    2017-07-01

    The objective is to present a new methodology to assess quantitatively the impact of bar removal on the anterior chest wall, among patients with pectus excavatum who have undergone the Nuss procedure, and present a preliminary study using this methodology. We propose to acquire, for each patient, the surface of the anterior chest wall using a three-dimensional laser scanner at subsequent time points (short term: before and after surgery; long term: follow-up visit, 6months, and 12months after surgery). After surfaces postprocessing, the changes are assessed by overlapping and measuring the distances between surfaces. In this preliminary study, three time points were acquired and two assessments were performed: before vs after bar removal (early) and before vs 2-8weeks after bar removal (interim). In 21 patients, the signed distances and volumes between surfaces were computed and the data analysis was performed. This methodology revealed useful for monitoring changes in the anterior chest wall. On average, the mean, maximum, and volume variations, in the early assessment, were -0.1±0.1cm, -0.6±0.2cm, and 47.8±22.2cm 3 , respectively; and, in the interim assessment, were -0.5±0.2cm, -1.3±0.4cm, and 122.1±47.3cm 3 , respectively (pbar was in situ was inversely and significantly correlated with postretraction and was a relevant predictor of its decrease following surgery (pbar was in situ may be the main determinant of the anterior chest wall retraction following bar removal. Further studies should continue to corroborate and reinforce the preliminary findings, by increasing the sample size and performing long-term assessments. III. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Preliminary remediation goals for use at the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-05-01

    This technical memorandum presents Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRGs) for use in human health risk assessment efforts under the United States Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office Environmental Restoration (ER) Division. This document provides the ER Division with standardized PRGs which are integral to the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study process. They are used during project scooping (Data Quality Objectives development), in screening level risk assessments to support early action or No Further Investigation decisions, and in the baselines risk assessment where they are employed in the selection of chemicals of potential concern. The primary objective of this document is to standardize these values and eliminate any duplication of effort by providing PRGs to all contractors involved in risk activities. In addition, by managing the assumptions and systems used in PRG derivation, the ER Risk Assessment Program will be able to control the level of quality assurance associated with these risk-based guideline values

  5. Preliminary remediation goals for use at the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-05-01

    This technical memorandum presents Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRGs) for use in human health risk assessment efforts under the United States Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office Environmental Restoration (ER) Division. This document provides the ER Division with standardized PRGs which are integral to the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study process. They are used during project scooping (Data Quality Objectives development), in screening level risk assessments to support early action or No Further Investigation decisions, and in the baselines risk assessment where they are employed in the selection of chemicals of potential concern. The primary objective of this document is to standardize these values and eliminate any duplication of effort by providing PRGs to all contractors involved in risk activities. In addition, by managing the assumptions and systems used in PRG derivation, the ER Risk Assessment Program will be able to control the level of quality assurance associated with these risk-based guideline values.

  6. 78 FR 15894 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-13

    .... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... comment period for a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/ [[Page... ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm...

  7. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  8. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  9. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  10. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

    2010-01-01

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  11. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  12. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  13. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  14. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  15. Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2010-09-15

    This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

  16. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  17. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  18. Ecological risk assessment of deep geological disposal of high-level nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, D.R.; Lush, D.L.; Acton, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    Contaminant fate and transport models, radiological dosimetry models, chemical dose-response models and population dynamic models were used to estimate ecological risks to moose and brook trout populations arising from a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository. Risks from potential contaminant releases were compared with risks from physical habitat alteration in constructing a repository and service community, and with risks from increased hunting and fish pressure in the area. For a reference environment typical of a proposed location somewhere in the Canadian Shield, preliminary results suggest that the population consequences of contaminant release will be minor relative to those of habitat alteration and natural resource use

  19. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  20. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  1. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  2. Preliminary assessment on compatibility of DUPIC fuel with CANDU-6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hang-Bok; Roh, G.H.; Jeong, C.J.; Rhee, B.W.; Choi, J.W.; Boss, C.R.

    1997-01-01

    The compatibility of DUPIC fuel with the existing CANDU-6 reactor was assessed. The technical issues of DUPIC fuel compatibility were chosen based on the CANDU physics design requirements and inherent characteristics of DUPIC fuel. The compatibility was assessed for the reference DUPIC fuel composition which was determined to reduce the composition heterogeneity and improve the spent PWR fuel utilization. Preliminary studies on a CANDU core loaded with DUPIC fuel have shown that the nominal power distribution is flatter than that of a natural uranium core when a 2-bundle shift refueling scheme is used, which reduces the reactivity worths of devices in the core and, therefore, the performance of reactivity devices was assessed. The safety of the core was assessed by a LOCA simulation and it was found that the power pulse upon LOCA can be maintained below that in the natural uranium core when a poison material is used in the DUPIC fuel. For the feasibility of handling DUPIC fuel in the plant, it will be necessary to introduce new equipment to load the DUPIC fuel in the refueling magazine. The radiation effect of DUPIC fuel on both the reactor hardware and the environment will be qualitatively analyzed later. (author)

  3. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  4. A combined QSAR and partial order ranking approach to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, L

    2006-04-01

    QSAR generated data appear as an attractive alternative to experimental data as foreseen in the proposed new chemicals legislation REACH. A preliminary risk assessment for the aquatic environment can be based on few factors, i.e. the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), the vapour pressure (VP) and the potential biodegradability of the compound in combination with the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and the actual tonnage in which the substance is produced. Application of partial order ranking, allowing simultaneous inclusion of several parameters leads to a mutual prioritisation of the investigated substances, the prioritisation possibly being further analysed through the concept of linear extensions and average ranks. The ranking uses endpoint values (log Kow and log VP) derived from strictly linear 'noise-deficient' QSAR models as input parameters. Biodegradation estimates were adopted from the BioWin module of the EPI Suite. The population growth impairment of Tetrahymena pyriformis was used as a surrogate for fish lethality.

  5. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  6. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  7. Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)

  8. Progress in human exposure assessment for biocidal products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hemmen, J.J. van

    2004-01-01

    An important shortcoming in our present knowledge required for risk assessment of biocidal products is the assessment of human exposure. This knowledge gap has been filled in a preliminary fashion with the TNsG on human exposure to biocidal products (available from the ECB website). Explicit User

  9. Safety and security risk assessments--now demystified!

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Donald E

    2011-01-01

    Safety/security risk assessments no longer need to spook nor baffle healthcare safety/security managers. This grid template provides at-at-glance quick lookup of the possible threats, the affected people and things, a priority ranking of these risks, and a workable solution for each risk. Using the standard document, spreadsheet, or graphics software already available on your computer, you can easily use a scientific method to produce professional looking risk assessments that get quickly understood by both senior managers and first responders alike!

  10. Significance of metabolites in the environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals consumed by human.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Eun Jeong; Lee, Dong Soo

    2017-08-15

    The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the significance of metabolites to the ERA of human pharmaceuticals. The predicted exposure concentrations (PECs) in surface water were estimated for a total of 24 selected active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and their metabolites using a life cycle based emission estimation model combined with a multimedia fate model with Monte-Carlo calculations. With the eco-toxicity data, the hazard quotients (HQs) of the metabolites were compared with those of individual parents alone. The results showed that PEC or toxicity or both of the metabolites was predicted to be higher than that of their parent APIs, which resulted in a total of 18 metabolites (from 12 parents) that have greater HQs than their parents. This result clearly demonstrated that some metabolites may potentially pose greater risk than their parent APIs in the water environment. Therefore, significance of metabolites should be carefully evaluated for monitoring strategy, priority setting, and scoping of the environmental risk assessment of APIs. The method used in the present work may serve as a pragmatic approach for the purpose of preliminary screening or priority setting of environmental risk posed by both APIs and their metabolites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  12. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    Preface This publication is a first version of a manual identifying the data needs for ecological risk assessment of genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). It is the intention of the authors to stimulate further discussion of what data are needed in order to conduct a proper ecological risk...... of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... in the amendment to the directive. This report suggests a structured way to identify the type of data needed to perform a sound ecological risk assessment for genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). The identified data types are intended to support the evaluation of the following risks: risk of invasion...

  13. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  14. Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seichi Horie

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  15. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  16. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  17. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  18. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  19. Supplementing quantitative risk assessments with a stage addressing the risk understanding of the decision maker

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative probabilistic risk assessment produces a conditional risk description given the knowledge of the analysts (formulated to a large extent through assumptions). However, important aspects of the risk may be concealed in the background knowledge of the analyst and the assumptions. This paper discusses this issue, the main purpose being to present a two-stage risk assessment approach where the second stage addresses the risk understanding of the decision maker. This second-stage is to a large extent qualitative. The approach is novel with its separation between the analysts' conditional risk descriptions using probability judgments, and the decision maker's risk understanding. The approach aims at improving the use of risk assessment in practical decision making by ensuring that the results of the risk assessments are properly interpreted and the key aspects of risk, uncertainty and knowledge are brought to attention for the decision makers. Examples are used to illustrate the approach. - Highlights: • A quantitative risk assessment produces a conditional risk description. • The decision maker (DM) needs to address risk beyond this description. • The paper presents a related two-stage process, covering analyst and DM judgments. • The second stage relates to the DM's risk understanding. • Strength of knowledge judgments are included in both stages.

  20. Automatic breast cancer risk assessment from digital mammograms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Karssemeijer, N

    Purpose: Textural characteristics of the breast tissue structure on mammogram have been shown to improve breast cancer risk assessment in several large studies. Currently, however, the texture is not used to assess risk in standard clinical procedures or involved in general breast cancer risk ass...

  1. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  2. Building-related symptoms among U.S. office workers and risks factors for moisture and contamination: Preliminary analyses of U.S. EPA BASE Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendell, Mark J.; Cozen, Myrna

    2002-09-01

    dirty cooling coils were associated with a nonsignificant increase in lower respiratory symptoms. These preliminary findings suggest that some factors that indicate risks for moisture or contamination in office buildings may have adverse effects on respiratory or neurologic health of office workers. More refined analyses are underway that will include these risk factors in simultaneous multivariate models along with additional risk factors that may be confounders, such as ventilation rate and indoor temperature. Future analyses will also use more refined metrics for both health outcomes and environmental risks, as well as assess risk in susceptible sub-groups.

  3. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    This book describes the more important improvements in risk assessment methodology developed over the last decade. The book covers the following areas - a general view of risk pertaining to nuclear power, mathematics necessary to understand the text, a concise overview of the light water reactors and their features for protecting the public, probabilities and consequences calculated to form risk assessment to the plant, and 34 applications of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the power generation industry. There is a glossary of acronyms and unusual words and a list of references. (author)

  5. 78 FR 64428 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    .... FDA-2013-N-1043] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for... entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...(n) of the FD&C Act. II. Qualitative Risk Assessment As explained in the draft RA, we conducted the...

  6. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  7. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  8. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  9. Hormesis in Regulatory risk assessment - Science and Science Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, George

    2011-01-01

    This brief commentary will argue that whether hormesis is considered in regulatory risk assessment is a matter less of science than of science policy. I will first discuss the distinction between science and science policy and their roles in regulatory risk assessment. Then I will focus on factors that influence science policy, especially as it relates to the conduct of risk assessments to inform regulatory decisions, with a focus on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The key questions will then be how does hormesis interact with current concepts of science and science policy for risk assessment? Finally, I look ahead to factors that may increase, or decrease, the likelihood of hormesis being incorporated into regulatory risk assessment.

  10. 76 FR 37770 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-28

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... available for public comment the Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft... plant pest risk assessment are also available on the APHIS Web site at: http://www.aphis.usda.gov/brs...

  11. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  12. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  13. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  14. On the use of conservatism in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    It is common to use conservatism in risk assessments, replacing uncertain quantities with values that lead to a higher level of risk. It is argued that the approach represents a practical method for dealing with uncertainties and lack of knowledge in risk assessment. If the computed probabilities meet the pre-defined criteria with the conservative quantities, there is strong support for the “real risk” to meet these criteria. In this paper we look more closely into this practice, the main aims being to clarify what it actually means and what the implications are, as well as providing some recommendations. The paper concludes that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments – “best judgements” should be the ruling thinking, to allow for meaningful comparisons of options. By incorporating sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements for the background knowledge on which the assigned probabilities are based, the robustness of the conclusions can be more adequately assessed. - Highlights: • The paper clarifies the meaning of conservatism in risk assessments. • It is shown that a conservative policy has severe shortcomings. • It is concluded that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments. • “Best judgements” should be the ruling thinking. • Sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements are required.

  15. Norms for environmentally responsible behaviour: An extended taxonomy and a preliminary assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, John

    The currently used concept of personal or moral norms is ambiguous with regard to its motivational content. Therefore, a revision of the norm taxonomy is suggested, implying a distinction between three types of personal norms, called introjected, identified, and integrated norms. A preliminary as...... is also supported, with the reservation that the different behavioural references are more than just different methods of measuring the same latent construct(s). People evidently hold different norms for different environmentally responsible behaviours.......The currently used concept of personal or moral norms is ambiguous with regard to its motivational content. Therefore, a revision of the norm taxonomy is suggested, implying a distinction between three types of personal norms, called introjected, identified, and integrated norms. A preliminary...... assessment of the taxonomy is carried out based of a survey of a random sample of Danish residents 18 years or older. A range of norm constructs were measured with regard to four environmentally relevant behaviours: buying organic milk, buying energy saving light bulbs, source-separating compostable kitchen...

  16. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  17. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  18. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  19. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  20. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.