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Sample records for preliminary risk assessments

  1. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

    1985-05-01

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

  2. Oil sands tailings preliminary ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Chemical data collected from various oil sands soil-tailings mixtures were used to determine the ecological risk that such tailings would pose to terrestrial wildlife at the surface of a reclaimed site. A methodology that could be used to evaluate the risks posed by various reclamation options (for dry land only) was proposed. Risks associated with other reclamation options, such as wet landscapes or deeper in-pit disposal, were not evaluated. Ten constituents (eight organic and two inorganic) were found to pose a threat to terrestrial biota. The relative contribution of different exposure pathways (water and food ingestion, incidental soil ingestion, inhalation) were studied by probabilistic models. Some physical and chemical reclamation alternatives which involve incorporating oil sands tailings in the landscape to produce a surface that could sustain a productive ecosystem, were described. 53 refs., 15 tabs., 3 figs

  3. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  4. Preliminary risk benefit assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.; Priest, C. C.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes the recent work of the authors on the evaluation of health risk benefits of space disposal of nuclear waste. The paper describes a risk model approach that has been developed to estimate the non-recoverable, cumulative, expected radionuclide release to the earth's biosphere for different options of nuclear waste disposal in space. Risk estimates for the disposal of nuclear waste in a mined geologic repository and the short- and long-term risk estimates for space disposal were developed. The results showed that the preliminary estimates of space disposal risks are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated release risks for mined geologic repositories remain as low as given by the U.S. DOE, and U.S. EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort in the U.S. is warranted at this time. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as a complement to the mined geologic repository is warranted.

  5. Preliminary risk assessment database and risk ranking of pharmaceuticals in the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Emily R.; Siewicki, Thomas C.; Phillips, Karl

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing concern about pharmaceuticals entering surface waters and the impacts these compounds may have on aquatic organisms. Many contaminants, including pharmaceuticals, are not completely removed by wastewater treatment. Discharge of effluent into surface waters results in chronic low-concentration exposure of aquatic organisms to these compounds, with unknown impacts. Exposure of virulent bacteria in wastewater to antibiotic residues may also induce resistance, which could threaten human health. The purpose of this study was to provide information on pharmaceutical threats to the environment. A preliminary risk assessment database for common pharmaceuticals was created and put into a web-accessible database named 'Pharmaceuticals in the Environment, Information for Assessing Risk' (PEIAR) to help others evaluate potential risks of pharmaceutical contaminants in the environment. Information from PEIAR was used to prioritize compounds that may threaten the environment, with a focus on marine and estuarine environments. The pharmaceuticals were ranked using five different combinations of physical-chemical and toxicological data, which emphasized different risks. The results of the ranking methods differed in the compounds identified as high risk; however, drugs from the central nervous system, cardiovascular, and anti-infective classes were heavily represented within the top 100 drugs in all rankings. Anti-infectives may pose the greatest overall risk based upon our results using a combination of factors that measure environmental transport, fate, and aquatic toxicity. The dataset is also useful for highlighting information that is still needed to assuredly assess risk

  6. A preliminary assessment of the potential risks from electrical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... Grey-crowned Crane Balearica regulorum, Lesser Flamingo Phoeniconaias minor, White-backed Vulture Gyps africanus, Rüppell's Vulture Gyps rueppellii, Martial Eagle Polemaetus bellicosus, White Stork Ciconia ciconia, Secretarybird Sagittarius serpentarius, and various sit-and-wait raptors. These preliminary findings ...

  7. Preliminary risk assessment of common-use pesticides using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of PESTicides) models to predict pesticide exposure and effects on aquatic ecosystems due to spray drift. Vaalharts Irrigation. Scheme is ... to note that PRIMET only accounts for risk due to spray drift and therefore the risk might be ...... Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Mid-Continent. Ecological Division, Duluth ...

  8. Preliminary report on hepatic and cardiovascular risk assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2011-02-28

    Feb 28, 2011 ... not at greater risk of disruption of their plasma membrane ... supplementing soy protein with acetate generating amino acids. Nutr. Rep. Int. 40: ... Effects of fruits and vegetables on cardiovascular disease ris factors in non-.

  9. 76 FR 52945 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-24

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OPP-2008-0850; FRL-8886-6] Chlorpyrifos Registration... chlorpyrifos registration review; preliminary human health risk assessment. This document extends the comment... . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This document extends the public comment period for the chlorpyrifos reregistration...

  10. Preliminary postclosure risk assessment: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, candidate repository site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslinger, P.W.; Elwood, D.M.; Freshley, M.D.; Reimus, P.W.; Tanner, J.E.; Doctor, P.G.; Engel, D.W.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Strenge, D.L.; Van Luik, A.E.

    1989-10-01

    A study was conducted by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory for the US Department of Energy, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management, to estimate the postclosure risk, in terms of population health effects, of a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The risk estimates cover a time span of 1 million years following repository closure. Representative disruptive and intrusive events were selected and evaluated in addition to expected conditions. The estimates were generated assuming spent fuel as the waste form and included all important nuclides from inventory, half-life and dose perspectives. The base case results yield an estimate of 36 health effects over the first million years of repository operation. The doses attributed to the repository corresponds to about 0.1 percent of the doses received from natural background radiation. 16 refs., 1 fig

  11. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, Brandon Road Lock and Dam Invasive Species Control Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Decision makers must include control-measure monitoring and emergency “interventions” to insure safety. The Coast Guard operational commanders...system” incorporates a travelling car on a rail above the barge-loading wharf to prevent loading personnel, cargo surveyors, or others from falling...to the Gulf of Mexico . As “Loopers”, they will have already transited the CSSC electric barriers. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, BRLD

  12. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space. Volume I. Executive summary of technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, E.E.; Denning, R.S.; Friedlander, A.L.

    1982-01-01

    Three major conclusions come from this preliminary risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal in space. Preliminary estimates of space disposal risk are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated mined geologic repository (MGR) release risks remain low, and the EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort is warranted. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as an MGR complement is warranted. As a result of this study, the following recommendations are made to NASA and the US DOE: During the continued evaluation of the mined geologic repository risk over the years ahead by DOE, if any significant increase in the calculated health risk is predicted for the MGR, then space disposal should be reevaluated at that time. The risks perceived by the public for the MGR should be evaluated on a broad basis by an independent organization to evaluate acceptance. If, in the future, MGR risks are found to be significant due to some presently unknown technical or social factor, and space disposal is selected as an alternative that may be useful in mitigating the risks, then the following space disposal study activities are recommended: improvement in chemical processing technology for wastes; payload accident response analysis; risk uncertainty analysis for both MGR and space disposal; health risk modeling that includes pathway and dose estimates; space disposal cost modeling; assessment of space disposal perceived (by public) risk benefit; and space systems analysis supporting risk and cost modeling

  13. Preliminary risk assessment of Power Plant Plomin site contaminated by radioactive slag and ash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Sinka, D.; Lokner, V.; Schaller, A.

    1996-01-01

    There is a certain number of radioactively contaminated sites in the Republic of Croatia, one of them being known as Power Plant Plomin site, which contains radioactive slag and ash. Due to a relatively high quantity of the deposited material, as well as relatively high population density of the neighbouring area, it is very important to assess the impact of the site on human health and environment. Using RESRAD computer code and PATHRAE method a preliminary assessment of doses and radiation risks for the workers who spend most of their working day at the pile has been performed. PATHRAE method has also been used for the assessment of radiation risks for the neighbouring population. The assessment is preliminary in its character due to the lack of input data. On the basis of assessment results, recommendations are being given comprising measurements to be taken with a view to coming up with the final risk assessment, as well as protective measures which should be undertaken in the meantime. (author)

  14. A preliminary spatial assessment of risk: Marine birds and chronic oil pollution on Canada's Pacific coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, C H; O'Hara, P D; Bertazzon, S; Morgan, K; Underwood, F E; Paquet, P C

    2016-12-15

    Chronic oil pollution poses substantial risks to marine birds and other marine wildlife worldwide. On Canada's Pacific coast, the negative ecological consequences to marine birds and marine ecosystems in general remain poorly understood. Using information relating to oil spill probability of occurrence, areas of overall importance to marine birds, and the at-sea distribution and density of 12 marine bird species and seven bird groups, including multiple Species at Risk, we undertook a spatial assessment of risk. Our results identify two main areas important to marine birds potentially at higher risk of exposure to oil. For individual bird species or species groups, those predicted to have elevated bird densities near the mainland and the northeast coast of Vancouver Island were identified as being at higher potential risk of exposure. Our results, however, should be considered preliminary. As with other anthropogenic stressors, in order to better understand and subsequently mitigate the consequences of chronic oil pollution on marine birds, improved information relating to marine birds and the occurrence of oil spills on Canada's Pacific coast is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Preliminary assessment of risk of ozone impacts to maize (Zea mays) in Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Tienhoven, AM

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Surface ozone concentrations in southern Africa exceed air quality guidelines set to protect agricultural crops. This paper addresses a knowledge gap by performing a preliminary assessment of potential ozone impacts on vegetation in southern African...

  16. Preliminary risk assessment of the Integral Inherently-Safe Light Water Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCarroll, Kellen R.; Lee, John C.; Manera, Annalisa; Memmott, Matthew J.; Ferroni, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    The Integral, Inherently Safe Light Water Reactor (I 2 S-LWR) concept seeks to significantly increase nuclear power plant safety. The project implements a safety-by-design philosophy, eliminating several initiating events and providing novel, passive safety systems at the conceptual phase. Pursuit of unparalleled safety employs an integrated development process linking design with deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses. Unique aspects of the I 2 S-LWR concept and design process present challenges to the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), particularly regarding overall flexibility, auditability and resolution of results. Useful approaches to initiating events and conditional failures are presented. To exemplify the risk-informed design process using PRA, a trade-off study of two safety system configurations is presented. Although further optimization is required, preliminary results indicate that the I 2 S-LWR can achieve a core damage frequency (CDF) from internal events less than 1.01 × 10 −8 /ry, including reactor vessel ruptures. Containment bypass frequency due to primary heat exchanger rupture is found to be comparable to non-vessel rupture CDF.

  17. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  18. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs

  19. Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-01-01

    The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft 2 grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants

  20. Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-10-01

    The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft{sup 2} grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants.

  1. CARDIOVASCULAR RISK ASSESSMENT IN PATIENTS WITH EARLY RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS WITHIN THE REMARCA STUDY: PRELIMINARY DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Novikova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Most patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA have a high or very high cardiovascular risk (CVR before therapy with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs. Objective: to evaluate the impact of antirheumatic therapy performed in accordance with the Treat-to-Target strategy on the progression of atherosclerosis and CVR in patients with early RA. Subjects and methods. This investigation enrolled 74 patients (72% women; median age, 56 years with early RA having moderate to high activity (median DAS28, 5.6 who had not previously received DMARDs and glucocorticoids (GCs. All patients were anticyclic citrullinated peptide antibody-positive and 87% of the patients were rheumatoid factor-positive. All patients received methotrexate (MT subcutaneously with dose escalation up to 25–30 mg/week, in case of its inefficiency at 3 months a biological agent (BA was added. After 6 months, 39% of the patients achieved remission; 19% had low; 35 and 7% had moderate and high disease activity, respectively. The majority (n = 20 (69% who achieved remission received MT monotherapy; 9 (31% – MT + BA whereas among the patients who did not achieve remission 15 (33% and 30 (67% respectively. At baseline and after 6 months of treatment, traditional CVR factors were assessed in all patients, by determining the total coronary risk by the SCORE scale, including that modified by EULAR (mSCORE, carotid artery atherosclerosis (CAA by duplex scanning data, coronary calcification (CC by multislice spiral computed tomography and by estimating the degree of CVR.Results and discussion. The rates of hypertension, overweight, abdominal obesity, low activity, smoking, and type 2 diabetes mellitus did not change significantly after 6 months. There were increases in the levels of total cholesterol by 7% (p < 0.05, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 9% (p<0.01, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 26% (p < 0.005, and body mass index (BMI by 1% (p < 0.01 and a decrease

  2. Conceptual overview and preliminary risk assessment of cryogen use in deep underground mine production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivret, J.; Millar, D. L.; Lyle, G.

    2017-12-01

    This research conducts a formal risk assessment for cryogenic fueled equipment in underground environments. These include fans, load haul dump units, and trucks. The motivating advantage is zero-emissions production in the subsurface and simultaneous provision of cooling for ultra deep mine workings. The driving force of the engine is the expansion of the reboiled cryogen following flash evaporation using ambient temperature heat. The cold exhaust mixes with warm mine air and cools the latter further. The use of cryogens as ‘fuel’ leads to much increased fuel transport volumes and motivates special considerations for distribution infrastructure and process including: cryogenic storage, distribution, handling, and transfer systems. Detailed specification of parts and equipment, numerical modelling and preparation of design drawings are used to articulate the concept. The conceptual design process reveals new hazards and risks that the mining industry has not yet encountered, which may yet stymie execution. The major unwanted events include the potential for asphyxiation due to oxygen deficient atmospheres, or physical damage to workers due to exposure to sub-cooled liquids and cryogenic gases. The Global Minerals Industry Risk Management (GMIRM) framework incorporates WRAC and Bow-Tie techniques and is used to identify, assess and mitigate risks. These processes operate upon the competing conceptual designs to identify and eliminate high risk options and improve the safety of the lower risk designs.

  3. Bilateral mammographic density asymmetry and breast cancer risk: A preliminary assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Bin; Sumkin, Jules H.; Zuley, Margarita L.; Wang, Xingwei; Klym, Amy H.; Gur, David

    2012-01-01

    To improve efficacy of breast cancer screening and prevention programs, it requires a risk assessment model with high discriminatory power. This study aimed to assess classification performance of using computed bilateral mammographic density asymmetry to predict risk of individual women developing breast cancer in near-term. The database includes 451 cases with multiple screening mammography examinations. The first (baseline) examinations of all case were interpreted negative. In the next sequential examinations, 187 cases developed cancer or surgically excised high-risk lesions, 155 remained negative (not-recalled), and 109 were recalled benign cases. From each of two bilateral cranio-caudal view images acquired from the baseline examination, we computed two features of average pixel value and local pixel value fluctuation. We then computed mean and difference of each feature computed from two images. When applying the computed features and other two risk factors (woman's age and subjectively rated mammographic density) to predict risk of cancer development, areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were computed to evaluate the discriminatory/classification performance. The AUCs are 0.633 ± 0.030, 0.535 ± 0.036, 0.567 ± 0.031, and 0.719 ± 0.027 when using woman's age, subjectively rated, computed mean and asymmetry of mammographic density, to classify between two groups of cancer-verified and negative cases, respectively. When using an equal-weighted fusion method to combine woman's age and computed density asymmetry, AUC increased to 0.761 ± 0.025 (p < 0.05). The study demonstrated that bilateral mammographic density asymmetry could be a significantly stronger risk factor associated to the risk of women developing breast cancer in near-term than woman's age and assessed mean mammographic density.

  4. Bilateral mammographic density asymmetry and breast cancer risk: A preliminary assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheng, Bin, E-mail: zhengb@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Sumkin, Jules H., E-mail: jsumkin@mail.magee.edu [Department of Radiology, Magee Womens Hospital, 300 Halket Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Zuley, Margarita L., E-mail: zuleyml@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, Magee Womens Hospital, 300 Halket Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Wang, Xingwei, E-mail: wangx6@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Klym, Amy H., E-mail: klymah@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Gur, David, E-mail: gurd@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States)

    2012-11-15

    To improve efficacy of breast cancer screening and prevention programs, it requires a risk assessment model with high discriminatory power. This study aimed to assess classification performance of using computed bilateral mammographic density asymmetry to predict risk of individual women developing breast cancer in near-term. The database includes 451 cases with multiple screening mammography examinations. The first (baseline) examinations of all case were interpreted negative. In the next sequential examinations, 187 cases developed cancer or surgically excised high-risk lesions, 155 remained negative (not-recalled), and 109 were recalled benign cases. From each of two bilateral cranio-caudal view images acquired from the baseline examination, we computed two features of average pixel value and local pixel value fluctuation. We then computed mean and difference of each feature computed from two images. When applying the computed features and other two risk factors (woman's age and subjectively rated mammographic density) to predict risk of cancer development, areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were computed to evaluate the discriminatory/classification performance. The AUCs are 0.633 {+-} 0.030, 0.535 {+-} 0.036, 0.567 {+-} 0.031, and 0.719 {+-} 0.027 when using woman's age, subjectively rated, computed mean and asymmetry of mammographic density, to classify between two groups of cancer-verified and negative cases, respectively. When using an equal-weighted fusion method to combine woman's age and computed density asymmetry, AUC increased to 0.761 {+-} 0.025 (p < 0.05). The study demonstrated that bilateral mammographic density asymmetry could be a significantly stronger risk factor associated to the risk of women developing breast cancer in near-term than woman's age and assessed mean mammographic density.

  5. Preliminary assessment of the risk linked to furan ingestion by babies consuming only ready-to-eat food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Georges; Humblet, Marie-France; Scippo, Marie-Louise; De Pauw, Edwin; Eppe, Gauthier; Saegerman, Claude

    2013-01-01

    The risk linked to furan ingestion has been assessed in previous papers for Belgian adults and children. The present paper focuses on infants consuming only ready-to-eat baby food. As there is no Belgian baby dietary database, the furan exposure assessment was carried out by using an Italian infant consumption database and Belgian contamination data. The estimated daily intake (EDI) was calculated according to a deterministic methodology. It involved 42 commercially available ready-to-eat baby food and 36 baby consumption records. The mean EDI was 1460 ng*(kg(bw)*day)⁻¹ which is 3.8 times higher than the 381 ng*(kg(bw)*day)⁻¹ reported for Belgian adults, and 3.5 times higher than the 419 ng*(kg(bw)*day)⁻¹ measured for Belgian children. To assess and characterise the risk for babies' exposure, the margin of exposure (MoE) was calculated. It highlighted that 74% of infants have a MoE < 1000, with a minimum of 140. However, these are only preliminary results as they were calculated from a very small dataset and the infant cytochrome P450 activity is significantly different compared with the adult's. Therefore, the risk linked to furan ingestion by babies should be assessed in a different manner. To this end, additional data regarding a baby diet as well as a better understanding of furan toxicity for babies are needed to characterise more accurately the risk for infants.

  6. Seasonal occurrence, removal efficiencies and preliminary risk assessment of multiple classes of organic UV filters in wastewater treatment plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, Mirabelle M P; Leung, H W; Lam, Paul K S; Murphy, Margaret B

    2014-04-15

    Organic ultraviolet (UV) filters are applied widely in personal care products (PCPs), but the distribution and risks of these compounds in the marine environment are not well known. In this study, the occurrence and removal efficiencies of 12 organic UV filters in five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) equipped with different treatment levels in Hong Kong, South China, were investigated during one year and a preliminary environmental risk assessment was carried out. Using a newly developed simultaneous multiclass quantification liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method, butyl methoxydibenzoylmethane (BMDM), 2,4-dihydroxybenzophenone (BP-1), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), benzophenone-4 (BP-4) and 2-ethyl-hexyl-4-trimethoxycinnamate (EHMC) were frequently (≥80%) detected in both influent and effluent with mean concentrations ranging from 23 to 1290 ng/L and 18-1018 ng/L, respectively; less than 2% of samples contained levels greater than 1000 ng/L. Higher concentrations of these frequently detected compounds were found during the wet/summer season, except for BP-4, which was the most abundant compound detected in all samples in terms of total mass. The target compounds behaved differently depending on the treatment level in WWTPs; overall, removal efficiencies were greater after secondary treatment when compared to primary treatment with >55% and compounds showing high removal (defined as >70% removal), respectively. Reverse osmosis was found to effectively eliminate UV filters from effluent (>99% removal). A preliminary risk assessment indicated that BP-3 and EHMC discharged from WWTPs may pose high risk to fishes in the local environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the American peregrine falcon at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (version 1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.

    1997-06-01

    The Endangered Species Act and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory require protection of the American peregrine falcon. A preliminary risk assessment of the peregrine was performed using a custom FORTRAN model and a geographical information system. Estimated doses to the falcon were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices. Hazard index results indicated no unacceptable risk to the falcon from the soil ingestion pathway, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. Scaling home ranges on the basis of maximizing falcon height for viewing prey decreased estimated risk by 69% in a canyons-based home range and increased estimated risk by 40% in a river-based home range. Improving model realism by weighting simulated falcon foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased risk by 93% in one exposure unit and by 82% in a second exposure unit. It was demonstrated that choice of toxicity reference values can have a substantial impact on risk estimates. Adding bioaccumulation factors for several organics increased partial hazard quotients by a factor of 110, but increased the mean hazard index by only 0.02 units. Adding a food consumption exposure pathway in the form of biomagnification factors for 15 contaminants of potential ecological concern increased the mean hazard index to 1.16 (± 1.0), which is above the level of acceptability (1.0). Aroclor-1254, dichlorodiphenyltrichlorethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenylethelyne (DDE) accounted for 81% of the estimated risk that includes soil ingestion and food consumption Contaminant pathways and a biomagnification component. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, falcon habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations. 123 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

  8. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the American peregrine falcon at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (version 1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D. [and others

    1997-06-01

    The Endangered Species Act and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory require protection of the American peregrine falcon. A preliminary risk assessment of the peregrine was performed using a custom FORTRAN model and a geographical information system. Estimated doses to the falcon were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices. Hazard index results indicated no unacceptable risk to the falcon from the soil ingestion pathway, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. Scaling home ranges on the basis of maximizing falcon height for viewing prey decreased estimated risk by 69% in a canyons-based home range and increased estimated risk by 40% in a river-based home range. Improving model realism by weighting simulated falcon foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased risk by 93% in one exposure unit and by 82% in a second exposure unit. It was demonstrated that choice of toxicity reference values can have a substantial impact on risk estimates. Adding bioaccumulation factors for several organics increased partial hazard quotients by a factor of 110, but increased the mean hazard index by only 0.02 units. Adding a food consumption exposure pathway in the form of biomagnification factors for 15 contaminants of potential ecological concern increased the mean hazard index to 1.16 ({+-} 1.0), which is above the level of acceptability (1.0). Aroclor-1254, dichlorodiphenyltrichlorethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenylethelyne (DDE) accounted for 81% of the estimated risk that includes soil ingestion and food consumption Contaminant pathways and a biomagnification component. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, falcon habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations. 123 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Ecotoxicity and Preliminary Risk Assessment of Nonivamide as a Promising Marine Antifoulant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujing Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The unclear environmental performance of nonivamide limits its application as a marine antifoulant. In this study, the natural degradation of nonivamide was studied in seawater and tap water. The half-life was 5.8 d, 8.8 d, 12.2 d, and 14.7 d in seawater and tap water in photolysis and biolysis, respectively. Furthermore, the ecotoxicity of nonivamide was assessed using marine microalgae, Chlorella vulgaris and Platymonas sp.; EC50,  6 d values on the growth of Chlorella vulgaris and Platymonas sp. were 16.9 mg L−1 and 19.21 mg L−1, respectively. The toxicity and environmental risk of nonivamide on microalgae were significantly decreased due to the natural degradation in seawater.

  10. Chemical stimulation in unconventional hydrocarbons extraction in the USA: a preliminary environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutra, Emilie; Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

    2016-04-01

    While the exploitation of unconventional resources recently shows an extensive development, the stimulation techniques in use in this domain arouse growing public concerns. Often in the shadow of the disputed hydraulic fracturing process, the matrix acidizing is however a complementary or alternative procedure to enhance the reservoir connectivity. Although acidizing processes are widespread within the traditional hydrocarbons sources exploration, the matrix acidizing does not appear to be commonly used in unconventional hydrocarbons formations due to their low permeability. Nonetheless, this process has been recently applied to the Monterey formation, a shale oil play in California. These stimulation fluids are composed by various chemicals, what represents a matter of concern for public as well as for authorities. As a consequence, a risk assessment implying an exposure and toxicity analysis is needed. Focusing on site surface accidents, e.g., leak of a chemical from a storage tank, we develop in this study concentration scenarios for different exposure pathways to estimate the potential environmental risk associated with the use of specific hazardous substances in the matrix acidizing process for unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs in the USA. Primary, information about the usage of different hazardous substances have been collected in order to extract the most frequently used chemicals. Afterwards, a probabilistic estimation of the environmental risk associated with the use of these chemicals is carried out by comparing the Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) distribution with the Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNEC) value. The latter is collected from a literature review, whereas the PEC is estimated as probability distribution concentrations in different environmental compartments (e.g., soil) built upon various predefined accident scenarios. By applying a probabilistic methodology for the concentrations, the level at which the used chemicals

  11. A preliminary benefit-risk assessment of varenicline in smoking cessation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Kate; Stead, Lindsay; Lancaster, Tim

    2009-01-01

    Varenicline is a recently developed medication for smoking cessation, which has been available on prescription since 2006. It is a selective nicotinic acetylcholine receptor partial agonist, and is designed to reduce withdrawal symptoms and to lessen the rewards of continued smoking. Our objective in this article is to assess the efficacy of varenicline as an aid to smoking cessation and to weigh the potential benefits against the possible risks. We identified ten randomized controlled trials and one cohort study with historical controls. In total there were 7999 participants, 5112 of whom received varenicline. Eight of the trials compared varenicline with placebo for cessation, two compared it with nicotine replacement therapy and one tested extended use for relapse prevention. Three of the varenicline/placebo trials also included a bupropion arm. The recommended dosage of varenicline 1 mg twice daily more than doubled the chances of quitting at 6 months or longer, with a relative risk (RR) compared with placebo of 2.38 (95% CI 2.00, 2.84). It also outperformed bupropion (RR 1.52 [95% CI 1.22, 1.88]) and nicotine replacement (RR 1.31 [95% CI 1.01, 1.71]). A reduced dosage regimen of 1 mg daily also increased cessation (RR 1.88 [95% CI 1.35, 2.60]). In the trials, varenicline significantly reduced craving and other withdrawal symptoms. The most frequent adverse event was nausea, occurring in 30-40% of varenicline users. However, this was generally reported at mild to moderate levels, diminished over time and was associated with attributable discontinuation rates of between 0.6% and 7.6%. Other commonly occurring adverse events included insomnia, abnormal dreams and headache. Serious adverse events were rare, with no treatment-related deaths during the treatment or follow-up phases. Postmarketing surveillance has raised new questions about the safety of varenicline. In February 2008, the US FDA issued a public health advisory note, reporting a possible association

  12. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzales, G.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Foxx, T.S.; Fresquez, P.R.; Mullen, M.A.; Pratt, L.E.; Gomez, P.E.

    1998-04-01

    The Endangered Species Act of 1973 and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) require that the Department of Energy protect the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), a state and federally listed species, from stressors such as contaminants. A preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle was performed using a custom FORTRAN code, ECORSK5, and the geographical information system. Estimated exposure doses to the eagle for radionuclide, inorganic metal, and organic contaminants were derived for varying ratios of aquatic vs. terrestrial simulated diet and compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (His). HI results indicate that no appreciable impact to the bald eagle is expected from contaminants at LANL from soil ingestion and food consumption pathways. This includes a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes linear additive toxicity. Improving model realism by weighting simulated eagle foraging based on distance from potential roost sites increased the HI by 76%, but still to inconsequential levels. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, eagle habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at low levels.

  13. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

  14. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species

  15. Preliminary Assessment of Health Risks of Potentially Toxic Elements in Settled Dust over Beijing Urban Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejun Wan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To examine levels, health risks, sources, and spatial distributions of potentially toxic elements in settled dust over Beijing urban area, 62 samples were collected mostly from residential building outdoor surfaces, and their <63 μm fractions were measured for 12 potentially toxic elements. The results show that V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, and Ba in dust are from predominantly natural sources, whereas Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, and Pb mostly originate from anthropogenic sources. Exposure to these elements in dust has significant non-cancer risks to children but insignificant to adults. Cancer risks of Cr, Co, Ni, As, and Cd via inhalation and dermal contact are below the threshold of 10−6–10−4 but As via dust ingestion shows a tolerable risk. The non-cancer risks to children are contributed mainly (75% by As, Pb, and Sb, and dominantly (92% via dust ingestion, with relatively higher risks mainly occurring in the eastern and northeastern Beijing urban areas. Although Cd, Zn, and Cu in dust are heavily affected by anthropogenic sources, their health risks are insignificant. Source appointments suggest that coal burning emissions, the dominant source of As, are likely the largest contributors to the health risk, and traffic-related and industrial emissions are also important because they contribute most of the Pb and Sb in dust.

  16. Risk assessment in the recovery of food for social solidarity purposes: preliminary data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesna Milicevic

    2016-11-01

    that the recovery of surplus from catering service and their reuse at COs should be planned with correct procedures, and the volunteer’s knowledge on the hygienic aspects appears to be a critical point. The recovery and the charitable activities require an appropriate assessment and careful risk analysis, in order to manage the complexity of no profit organization.

  17. Risk Assessment in the Recovery of Food for Social Solidarity Purposes: Preliminary Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milicevic, Vesna; Colavita, Giampaolo; Castrica, Marta; Ratti, Sabrina; Baldi, Antonella; Balzaretti, Claudia M

    2016-09-20

    of surplus from catering service and their reuse at COs should be planned with correct procedures, and the volunteer's knowledge on the hygienic aspects appears to be a critical point. The recovery and the charitable activities require an appropriate assessment and careful risk analysis, in order to manage the complexity of no profit organization.

  18. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  19. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...

  20. Preliminary results from the application of risk matrix method for safety assessment in industrial radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Cruz, D.; Truppa, W.; Aravena, M.; Tamayo, B.

    2015-09-01

    Although the uses of ionizing radiation in industry are subject to procedures that provide a high level of safety, experience has shown that equipment failure, human errors, or the combination of both that can trigger accidental exposures may occur. Traditionally, the radiation safety checks whether these industrial practices (industrial radiography, industrial irradiators, among others) are sufficiently safe to prevent similar accidental exposures already occurred, so that becomes dependent on the published information and not always answers questions like: What other events can occur, or what other risks are present? Taking into account the results achieved by the Foro Iberoamericano de Organismos Reguladores Radiologicos y Nucleares, its leading position in the use of techniques of risk analysis in radioactive facilities and the need to develop a proactive approach to the prevention of accidents arising from the use of ionizing radiations in the industry, it intends to apply the risk analysis technique known as Risk Matrix to a hypothetical reference entity for the region in which industrial radiography is performed. In this paper the results of the first stage of this study are shown, that is the identification of initiating events (IE) and barriers that help mitigate the consequences of such IE, so that can appreciate the applicability of this method to industrial radiography services, to reduce the risk to acceptable levels. The fundamental advantage associated with the application of this methodology is that can be applied by the professionals working in the service and identifies specific weaknesses that from the point of view of safety there, so they can be prioritized resources depending on risk reduction. (Author)

  1. Preliminary assessment of costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by barge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobin, R.L.; Meshkov, N.K.; Jones, R.H.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the costs and risks associated with transporting spent fuel by barge. The barge movements would be made in combination with rail movements to transport spent fuel from plants to a repository. For the purpose of this analysis, three candidate repository sites are analyzed: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, Deaf Smith, Texas, and Hanford, Washington. This report complements a report prepared by Sandia National Laboratories in 1984 that analyzes the costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by rail and by truck to nine candidate repository sites

  2. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  3. Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fleming

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

  4. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  5. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  6. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  7. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Baron, L.A.; Jackson, B.L.

    1995-08-01

    Historically, ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites [such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)], has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source operable unit. Consequently the species that are generally considered are those with home ranges small enough such that multiple individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the contaminated site. This approach is adequate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination that only provide habitat for species with limited requirements. This approach is not adequate however for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. Because wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites they may be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a particular contaminated site by wide-ranging species will be dependent upon the amount of suitable habitat available at that site. Therefore to adequately evaluate risks to wide-ranging species at the ORR-wide scale, the use of multiple contaminated sites must be weighted by the amount of suitable habitat on OUs. This reservation-wide ecological risk assessment is intended to identify which endpoints are significantly at risk; which contaminants are responsible for this risk; and which OUs significantly contribute to risk.

  8. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, Sam; Chadès, Iadine

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  9. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam Nicol

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessment (EIA is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  10. Preliminary Safety and Risk HSE Assessment. Application to the Potential Locations of a CO2 Geological Storage Pilot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recreo, F.; Eguilior, S.; Ruiz, C.; Lomba, L.; Hurtado, A.

    2015-01-01

    The location of a site safe and able to sequester CO2 for long periods of time is essential to gain public acceptance. This requires a long-term safety assessment developed in a robust and reliable framework. Site selection is the first step and requires specific research. This paper describes the application of the Selection and Classification Method of Geological Formations (SCF) developed to assess the potential of geological formations to CO2 storage. This assessment is based in the analysis of risks to Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) derived from potential CO2 leakage. Comparisons of the results obtained from a number of potential sites can help to select the best candidate for CO2 injection. The potential impact will be related to three key potential features of CO2 geological storage: the potential of the target geological formation for long term CO2 containment; the potential for secondary containment on containment failure of the target formation; and the site's potential to mitigate and/or disperse CO2 leakage if the primary and secondary containments fail. The methodology assesses each of these three characteristics through an analysis and assessment of properties of certain attributes of them. Uncertainty will remain as an input and output value of the methodology due to the usual lack of data in most site selection processes. The global uncertainty reports on the trust on the knowledge of the site characteristics. Therefore, the methodology enables comparing sites taking into account both the HSE risk expectation and the estimation of the quality of knowledge concerning such risk. The objective is to contribute to the selection of potential sites for a CO2 injection pilot plant in the Iberian Peninsula from the perspective of Safety and Risk Analysis.

  11. The reliability and preliminary validity of game-based fall risk assessment in community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Minoru; Aoyama, Tomoki; Nakamura, Masatoshi; Tanaka, Buichi; Nagai, Koutatsu; Tatematsu, Noriatsu; Uemura, Kazuki; Nakamura, Takashi; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Ichihashi, Noriaki

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether the Nintendo Wii Fit program could be used for fall risk assessment in healthy, community-dwelling older adults. Forty-five community-dwelling older women participated in this study. The "Basic Step" and "Ski Slalom" modules were selected from the Wii Fit game program. The following 5 physical performance tests were performed: the 10-m walk test under single- and dual-task conditions, the Timed Up and Go test under single- and dual-task conditions, and the Functional Reach test. Compared with the faller group, the nonfaller group showed a significant difference in the Basic Step (P game-based fall risk assessment using the Basic Step has a high generality and is useful in community-dwelling older adults. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Development of fault parameters for use in risk assessment modeling in the Pasco Basin, Columbia Plateau, South Central Washington: a preliminary study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caggiano, J.A.

    1982-03-01

    Preliminary data on strain rate, seismicity, and estimated earthquake source parameters suggest limitations on the extent of postulated faulting and its impact on a nuclear waste repository in Columbia River basalt. Structural relief of dated basalt flows, attitude of Pliocene sediments, geodetic surveys, size and distribution of earthquakes, and focal mechanism solutions indicate that deformation of basalt under north-south compression was under way in the Miocene and has continued on existing structures at an average rate of much less than 1 mm/yr in the Pasco Basin. Lengths and displacements of mapped faults suggest limits on the postulated fault that could intersect a repository and produce an earthquake of about magnitude 6.5. Using a credible earthquake permits calculation of preliminary source parameters for risk assessment modeling during a single episode of slip on the postulated new fault and indicates displacement of less than or equal to 1, m on a steeply dipping fault of less than or equal to 50 km length could occur. Preliminary source parameter calculations suggest that displacements of less than or equal to 2 cm may occur during microearthquakes in swarms. The area of fault rupture may be tens of square meters up to a few square kilometers, suggesting slip on joints. Seismic moments for postulated earthquakes in the interconnecting fault and microearthquake scenarios compare favorably with reported values for similar-sized earthquakes in different media and suggest that the estimated fault parameters are reasonable until an adequate tectonic model has been developed

  13. TCA High Lift Preliminary Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyatt, G. H.; Polito, R. C.; Yeh, D. T.; Elzey, M. E.; Tran, J. T.; Meredith, Paul T.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a TCA (Technology Concept Airplane) High lift Preliminary Assessment. The topics discussed are: 1) Model Description; 2) Data Repeatability; 3) Effect of Inboard L.E. (Leading Edge) Flap Span; 4) Comparison of 14'x22' TCA-1 With NTF (National Transonic Facility) Modified Ref. H; 5) Comparison of 14'x22' and NTF Ref. H Results; 6) Effect of Outboard Sealed Slat on TCA; 7) TCA Full Scale Build-ups; 8) Full Scale L/D Comparisons; 9) TCA Full Scale; and 10) Touchdown Lift Curves. This paper is in viewgraph form.

  14. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  15. Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Pratt, L.E.

    1997-02-01

    The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were compared against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, {sup 239}Pu, Al and {sup 234}U we`re among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels.

  16. Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Pratt, L.E.

    1997-02-01

    The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were compared against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, 239 Pu, Al and 234 U we're among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels

  17. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  18. Preliminary assessment of the risk of volcanism at a proposed nuclear-waste repository in the southern Great Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Carr, W.J.

    1980-01-01

    Volcanic hazard studies of the southern Great Basin are being conducted on behalf of the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations program. Current work is chiefly concerned with characterizing the geology, chronology, and tectonic setting of Pliocene and Quaternary volcanism in the Nevada Test Site region, and assessing volcanic risk through consequence and probability studies, particularly with respect to a potential site in the southwestern Nevada Test Site. Young ( - 6 volcanic events per year. Based on this rate, the annual probability of disruption of a 10-km 2 repository located within a 25-km radius circle centered at Yucca Mountain, southwestern Nevada Test Site, is 10 - 8 . A larger area, 50-km radius, yields a disruption probability of 10 - 9 per year. Current tectonic zonation studies of the southern Great Basin will reduce the calculated probabilities of basaltic eruption for certain areas. 21 references, 3 figures

  19. Ecological risk, source and preliminary assessment of metals in the surface sediments of Chabahar Bay, Oman Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agah, Homira; Saleh, Abolfazl; Bastami, Kazem Darvish; Fumani, Neda Sheijooni

    2016-01-01

    In this study, concentrations of Aluminum (Al), Iron (Fe), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Nickel (Ni), Vanadium (V), Zinc (Zn), Arsenic (As), Cobalt (Co) and lead (Pb) in the surface sediments from Chabahar Bay were studied to assess the degree of heavy metal pollution as a consequence of natural and anthropogenic sources. Metal contents in the sediments were observed in the order of: Al > Fe > Cr > V > Ni > Zn > Cu > > As > Pb > Co. According to enrichment factor (EF), Arsenic was higher than 1.5 at some sites, indicating anthropogenic inputs. Contents of Ni, As and Cr in the some sampling sites were higher than sediment quality guideline implying adverse impacts of these metals. Based on potential ecological risk (PER), the Chabahar Bay had low ecological risk. - Highlights: •Metals and major elements were determined in surface sediments from Chabahar Bay, Oman Sea. •EF values indicated non-enriched to moderate-enriched. •Ni, As and Cr were above ERL values.

  20. Fractionation distribution and preliminary ecological risk assessment of As, Hg and Cd in ornithogenic sediments from the Ross Sea region, East Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lou, Chuangneng [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Liu, Xiaodong, E-mail: ycx@ustc.edu.cn [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Nie, Yaguang [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Emslie, Steven D. [Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, 601S. College Road, Wilmington, NC 28403 (United States)

    2015-12-15

    To evaluate mobility of toxic elements and their potential ecological risk caused by seabird biovectors, the fractionation distributions of arsenic (As), mercury (Hg) and cadmium (Cd) were investigated in three ornithogenic sediment profiles from the Ross Sea region, East Antarctica. The results show residual As holds a dominant position, and Hg mainly derives from residual, organic matter-bound and humic acid-bound fractions, indicating weak mobility of As and Hg. However, exchangeable Cd occupies a considerable proportion in studied samples, suggesting Cd has strong mobility. The preliminary evaluation of Sediment Quality Guidelines (SGQs) shows adverse biological effects may occur occasionally for As and Cd, and rarely for Hg. Using Risk Assessment Code (RAC), the ecological risk is assessed at moderate, low and very high for As, Hg and Cd pollution, respectively. Organic matter derived from guano is the main factor controlling the mobility of Hg and Cd through adsorption and complexation. - Highlights: • Residual As holds a dominant position in ornithogenic sediments. • Hg mainly derives from residual, organic matter-bound and humic acid-bound fractions. • Exchangeable Cd occupies a considerable proportion in ornithogenic sediments. • TOC is the main factor controlling the mobility of Hg and Cd in studied sediments.

  1. Radioactively contaminated areas: Bioindicator species and biomarkers of effect in an early warning scheme for a preliminary risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lourenço, Joana, E-mail: joanalourenco@ua.pt [Department of Biology & CESAM, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, Aveiro (Portugal); Mendo, Sónia [Department of Biology & CESAM, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, Aveiro (Portugal); Pereira, Ruth [Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto & CIIMAR – Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research & GreenUP/CITAB-UP, Porto (Portugal)

    2016-11-05

    Highlights: • Knowing the most used biomarkers and bioindicators used in radioactive areas. • Understanding of the response similarities between human and non-human biota. • Identifying the knowledge gaps. • Proposing an early warning scheme, to perform a screening evaluation of radioactive areas. • Permitting routine assessments without disturbing and alarming local populations. - Abstract: Concerns about the impacts on public health and on the natural environment have been raised regarding the full range of operational activities related to uranium mining and the rest of the nuclear fuel cycle (including nuclear accidents), nuclear tests and depleted uranium from military ammunitions. However, the environmental impacts of such activities, as well as their ecotoxicological/toxicological profile, are still poorly studied. Herein, it is discussed if organisms can be used as bioindicators of human health effects, posed by lifetime exposure to radioactively contaminated areas. To do so, information was gathered from several studies performed on vertebrates, invertebrate species and humans, living in these contaminated areas. The retrieved information was compared, to determine which are the most used bioindicators and biomarkers and also the similarities between human and non-human biota responses. The data evaluated are used to support the proposal for an early warning scheme, based on bioindicator species and on the most sensitive and commonly shared biomarkers, to perform a screening evaluation of radioactively contaminated sites. This scheme could be used to support decision-making for a deeper evaluation of risks to human health, making it possible to screen a large number of areas, without disturbing and alarming local populations.

  2. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  3. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  4. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  5. Preliminary assessment of nuclear waste transportation cost and risk for operation of the first repository at candidate sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, R.W.; McSweeney, T.I.; Varadarajan, R.V.; Wilmot, E.L.; Cashwell, J.W.; Joy, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    To support the selection of the first commercial nuclear waste repository site in 1987, environmental analyses of five candidate site locations are currently being performed. The five locations are in the Gulf Interior Region, the Permian Basin, the Paradox Basin, Yucca Mountain and the Hanford reservation. Costs and operational risks associated with the transportation of nuclear wastes to a single repository located in these regions have been calculated for a life-cycle of 26 years

  6. Ecological risk assessment on a cadmium contaminated soil landfill-a preliminary evaluation based on toxicity tests on local species and site-specific information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, C.-M.; Liu, M.-C.

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, methodology of ecological risk assessment has been developed and applied frequently for addressing various circumstances where ecological impacts are suspected or have occurred due to environmental contamination; however, its practice is very limited in Taiwan. In 1982, brown rice from rice paddy fields in Da-Tan, Tau-Yuan, was found to be contaminated with Cd and Pb due to illegal discharges of wastewater, known as the 'Cd rice' incidence. Cadmium laden soil was transferred to a constructed landfill in an industrial park 15 years after the incident. Possible leakage of the landfill was suspected by committee members of a supervising board for the remediation process, and a preliminary ecological risk evaluation was requested. A possible risk scenario was that groundwater contamination due to the leachate containing Cd and Pb from the landfill could result in pollution of coastal water, and subsequently produce toxic effects to aquatic organisms. Chemical dissipation in groundwater systems was simulated and short-term chronic toxicity tests on larvae of three local aquatic species were also performed to determine the no-observed adverse-effect concentrations (NOAECs), as well as the predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs), of the two metals in the organisms tested. The hazard quotient (HQ), the ratio of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) to PNECs, was used for risk characterization. A worst-case-scenario calculation showed that the maximum Cd concentration at 60 m and farther downstream from the site in the groundwater system would be 0.0028 mg l -1 with a maximum initial concentration of 0.65 mg l -1 in the leachate, while for Pb, the highest concentration of 0.044 mg l -1 would be reached at a distance of 40 m and farther, which was based on an initial concentration of 4.4 mg l -1 in the leachate; however, both cases would only occur 80 years after the initiation of leakage. A presumed dilution factor of 100 was used to calculate

  7. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  8. Preliminary safety assessment of the WIPP facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balestri, R.J.; Torres, B.W.; Pahwa, S.B.; Brannen, J.P.

    1979-01-01

    This paper summarizes the efforts to perform a safety assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) facility being proposed for southeastern New Mexico. This preliminary safety assessment is limited to a consequence assessment in terms of the dose to a maximally exposed individual as a result of introducing the radionuclides into the biosphere. The extremely low doses to the organs as a result of the liquid breach scenarios are contrasted with the background radiation

  9. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  10. Lung cancer risk in relation to traffic-related nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs exposure: a preliminary probabilistic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chung-Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu; Ju, Yun-Ru; Li, Wen-Hsuan; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

    2011-06-15

    Exposures to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been linked to human lung cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess lung cancer risk caused by inhalation exposure to nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs at the population level in Taiwan appraised with recent published data. A human respiratory tract model was linked with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to estimate deposition fraction and internal organic-specific PAHs doses. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to estimate potential lung cancer risk. We reanalyzed particle size distribution, total-PAHs, particle-bound benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) and PM concentrations. A dose-response profile describing the relationships between external B[a]P concentration and lung cancer risk response was constructed based on population attributable fraction (PAF). We found that 90% probability lung cancer risks ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-4) for traffic-related nano and ultrafine particle-bound PAHs, indicating a potential lung cancer risk. The particle size-specific PAF-based excess annual lung cancer incidence rate due to PAHs exposure was estimated to be less than 1 per 100,000 population, indicating a mild risk factor for lung cancer. We concluded that probabilistic risk assessment linked PAF for limiting cumulative PAHs emissions to reduce lung cancer risk plays a prominent role in future government risk assessment program. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The Adaptation Gap Report - a Preliminary Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alverson, Keith; Olhoff, Anne; Noble, Ian

    This first Adaptation Gap report provides an equally sobering assessment of the gap between adaptation needs and reality, based on preliminary thinking on how baselines, future goals or targets, and gaps between them might be defined for climate change adaptation. The report focuses on gaps...... in developing countries in three important areas: finance, technology and knowledge....

  12. Preliminary melter performance assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, M.L.; Eyler, L.L.; Mahoney, L.A.; Cooper, M.F.; Whitney, L.D.; Shafer, P.J.

    1994-08-01

    The Melter Performance Assessment activity, a component of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory's (PNL) Vitrification Technology Development (PVTD) effort, was designed to determine the impact of noble metals on the operational life of the reference Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP) melter. The melter performance assessment consisted of several activities, including a literature review of all work done with noble metals in glass, gradient furnace testing to study the behavior of noble metals during the melting process, research-scale and engineering-scale melter testing to evaluate effects of noble metals on melter operation, and computer modeling that used the experimental data to predict effects of noble metals on the full-scale melter. Feed used in these tests simulated neutralized current acid waste (NCAW) feed. This report summarizes the results of the melter performance assessment and predicts the lifetime of the HWVP melter. It should be noted that this work was conducted before the recent Tri-Party Agreement changes, so the reference melter referred to here is the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter design

  13. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  14. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  15. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-01-01

    Often the methodologies for assessing proliferation risk are focused around the inherent vulnerability of nuclear energy systems and associated safeguards. For example an accepted approach involves ways to measure the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to potential proliferation. This paper describes preliminary investigation into non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve proliferation assessment and advance the approach to assessing nuclear material diversion. Proliferation resistance assessment, safeguard assessments and related studies typically create technical information about the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to diversion of nuclear material. The purpose of this research project is to find ways to integrate social information with technical information by explicitly considering the role of culture, groups and/or individuals to factors that impact the possibility of proliferation. When final, this work is expected to describe and demonstrate the utility of social science modeling in proliferation and proliferation risk assessments.

  16. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  17. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  18. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  19. A preliminary risk assessment of organochlorines accumulated in fish to the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northwestern waters of Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, C.L.H.; Xu, Y.; Lam, J.C.W.; Connell, D.W.; Lam, M.H.W.; Nicholson, S.; Richardson, B.J.; Lam, P.K.S.

    2006-01-01

    The Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin is considered threatened due to several factors including pollution in Hong Kong and the risks due to consumption of fish tainted with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides were assessed. Six species of fish Collichthys lucida, Pseudosciaena crocea, Johnius sp., Thryssa sp., Mugil sp. and Trichiurus sp., which comprise the main prey species of humpback dolphins were collected for analyses. Risks due to total PCBs, total TEQs, PCB 118 and the pesticides were assessed with the use of toxicity reference values as the threshold reference benchmarks. The calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that the risks associated with organochlorines were generally low. The highest RQ was associated with total TEQs suggesting that dioxin-like PCBs may pose the highest risk to the dolphins. The HCHs, total PCBs and heptachlor had comparatively high RQs and thus they should also be the priority organochlorines that would require further investigation. - Fish tainted with dioxin-like PCBs might pose a risk to Hong Kong dolphins

  20. A preliminary risk assessment of organochlorines accumulated in fish to the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northwestern waters of Hong Kong

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hung, C.L.H. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Xu, Y. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Lam, J.C.W. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Connell, D.W. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); School of Public Health, Griffith University, Logan Campus, University Drive, Meadowbrook, QLD 4131 (Australia); Lam, M.H.W. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Nicholson, S. [Meinhardt Mouchel Limited, 12/F, MLC Tower, 248 Queen' s Road East, Wanchai, Hong Kong (China); Richardson, B.J. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Lam, P.K.S. [Centre for Coastal Pollution and Conservation, Department of Biology and Chemistry, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)]. E-mail: bhpksl@cityu.edu.hk

    2006-11-15

    The Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin is considered threatened due to several factors including pollution in Hong Kong and the risks due to consumption of fish tainted with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides were assessed. Six species of fish Collichthys lucida, Pseudosciaena crocea, Johnius sp., Thryssa sp., Mugil sp. and Trichiurus sp., which comprise the main prey species of humpback dolphins were collected for analyses. Risks due to total PCBs, total TEQs, PCB 118 and the pesticides were assessed with the use of toxicity reference values as the threshold reference benchmarks. The calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that the risks associated with organochlorines were generally low. The highest RQ was associated with total TEQs suggesting that dioxin-like PCBs may pose the highest risk to the dolphins. The HCHs, total PCBs and heptachlor had comparatively high RQs and thus they should also be the priority organochlorines that would require further investigation. - Fish tainted with dioxin-like PCBs might pose a risk to Hong Kong dolphins.

  1. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  2. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  3. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  4. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  5. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  6. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  7. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  8. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  9. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  10. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  11. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  12. Development and preliminary validation of the Opioid Abuse Risk Screener

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Henrie-Barrus

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Prescription opioid drug abuse has reached epidemic proportions. Individuals with chronic pain represent a large population at considerable risk of abusing opioids. The Opioid Abuse Risk Screener was developed as a comprehensive self-administered measure of potential risk that includes a wide range of critical elements noted in the literature to be relevant to opioid risk. The creation, refinement, and preliminary modeling of the item pool, establishment of preliminary concurrent validity, and the determination of the factor structure are presented. The initial development and validation of the Opioid Abuse Risk Screener shows promise for effective risk stratification.

  13. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  15. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  16. Biota Modeling in EPA's Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manning, Karessa L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dolislager, Fredrick G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bellamy, Michael B. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level tools that set forth Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recommended approaches, based upon currently available information with respect to risk assessment, for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has a residential gardening scenario and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that require modeling of the transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC exposure scenarios. Recent improvements have been made in the biota modeling for these calculators, including newly derived biota intake rates, more comprehensive soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals and soil to plant transfer factors (BV's). New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

  17. Biota Modeling in EPA's Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, Karessa L.; Dolislager, Fredrick G.; Bellamy, Michael B.

    2016-01-01

    The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level tools that set forth Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recommended approaches, based upon currently available information with respect to risk assessment, for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has a residential gardening scenario and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that require modeling of the transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC exposure scenarios. Recent improvements have been made in the biota modeling for these calculators, including newly derived biota intake rates, more comprehensive soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals and soil to plant transfer factors (BV's). New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

  18. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  19. Radiological risk assessment of a radioactively contaminated site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devgun, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    A limited-scope preliminary assessment of radiological risk has been conducted at a radioactively contaminated site under current site use conditions and based on the available preliminary radiological characterization data for the site. The assessment provides useful input to the remedial action planning for the site. 8 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  20. Guidance for performing preliminary assessments under CERCLA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1991-09-01

    EPA headquarters and a national site assessment workgroup produced this guidance for Regional, State, and contractor staff who manage or perform preliminary assessments (PAs). EPA has focused this guidance on the types of sites and site conditions most commonly encountered. The PA approach described in this guidance is generally applicable to a wide variety of sites. However, because of the variability among sites, the amount of information available, and the level of investigative effort required, it is not possible to provide guidance that is equally applicable to all sites. PA investigators should recognize this and be aware that variation from this guidance may be necessary for some sites, particularly for PAs performed at Federal facilities, PAs conducted under EPA`s Environmental Priorities Initiative (EPI), and PAs at sites that have previously been extensively investigated by EPA or others. The purpose of this guidance is to provide instructions for conducting a PA and reporting results. This guidance discusses the information required to evaluate a site and how to obtain it, how to score a site, and reporting requirements. This document also provides guidelines and instruction on PA evaluation, scoring, and the use of standard PA scoresheets. The overall goal of this guidance is to assist PA investigators in conducting high-quality assessments that result in correct site screening or further action recommendations on a nationally consistent basis.

  1. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  2. Preliminary dose assessment of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    From the major accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station, a plume of airborne radioactive fission products was initially carried northwesterly toward Poland, thence toward Scandinavia and into Central Europe. Reports of the levels of radioactivity in a variety of media and of external radiation levels were collected in the Department of Energy's Emergency Operations Center and compiled into a data bank. Portions of these and other data which were obtained directly from published and official reports were utilized to make a preliminary assessment of the extent and magnitude of the external dose to individuals downwind from Chernobyl. Radioactive 131 I was the predominant fission product. The time of arrival of the plume and the maximum concentrations of 131 I in air, vegetation and milk and the maximum reported depositions and external radiation levels have been tabulated country by country. A large amount of the total activity in the release was apparently carried to a significant elevation. The data suggest that in areas where rainfall occurred, deposition levels were from ten to one-hundred times those observed in nearby ''dry'' locations. Sufficient spectral data were obtained to establish average release fractions and to establish a reference spectra of the other nuclides in the release. Preliminary calculations indicated that the collective dose equivalent to the population in Scandinavia and Central Europe during the first year after the Chernobyl accident would be about 8 x 10 6 person-rem. From the Soviet report, it appears that a first year population dose of about 2 x 10 7 person-rem (2 x 10 5 Sv) will be received by the population who were downwind of Chernobyl within the U.S.S.R. during the accident and its subsequent releases over the following week. 32 refs., 14 figs., 20 tabs

  3. Preliminary geological suitability assessment for LILW disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomse, P.; Mele, I.

    2001-01-01

    Due to the growing need for a final disposal of LILW, the final solution for the short-lived LILW is the key issue of radioactive waste management in Slovenia at the moment. ARAO - the Slovenian Agency for Radwaste Management - is intensely involved in the re-initiated site selection process for a LILW repository. In this new process we are trying to combine as best as possible the technical, geologically-led and the advocacy-site selection processes. By a combination of technical and volunteer approach to the site selection we wish to guarantee high public involvement and sufficient flexibility of the process to adapt to specific conditions or new circumstances while the project is ongoing. In the technical phase, our tendency is to retain a larger number of potential areas/sites. We also keep open the possibility of choosing the type of repository. The decision between the surface and underground option will be made only once the site has been defined. In accordance with the IAEA recommendations the site selection process is divided into four stages: the conceptual and planning stage, area survey stage, site characterisation stage and site confirmation stage. Last year the area survey stage was started. In the preliminary geological suitability assessment the required natural predisposition of Slovene territory was assessed in order to locate geologically suitable formations. The assessment of natural conditions of the system was based on consideration of the main geological, hydro-geological and seismotectonic conditions. It was performed with ARC/INFO technology. The results are compiled in a map, showing potential areas for underground and surface disposal of LILW in Slovenia. It has been established that there is a potential suitability for both surface and underground disposal on about 10 000 km 2 of the Slovenian territory, which represents almost half of the entire Slovenian territory. These preliminary results are now being carefully re-examined. As an

  4. Occupational exposure assessment in a radioactive facility: a preliminary evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, Alice dos Santos; Gerulis, Eduardo; Sanches, Matias P.; Carneiro, Janete C.G.G.

    2013-01-01

    The risk that a worker has found on the job is a function of the hazards present and his exposure level to those hazards. Exposure and risk assessment is therefore the heart of all occupational health and industrial hygiene programs involving a continuous process of information gathering. The use of a systematic method to characterize workplace exposures to chemical, physical and biological risks is a fundamental part of this process. This study aims to carry out a preliminary evaluation in a radioactive facility, identifying potential exposures and consequently the existing occupational hazards (risk/agent) in the workplace which the employee is subject. The study is based on proposal to carry out a basic characterization of the facility, which could be the first step in the investigation of occupational exposure. For this study was essential to know the workplace, potential risks and agents; workforce profile including assignment of tasks, sources of exposure processes, and control measures. The main tool used in this study was based on references, records, standards, procedures, interviews with the workers and with management. Since the basic characterization of the facility has been carried out, consequently the potential exposure to the agents of risks to workers has been identified. The study provided an overview of the perception of risk founded at facility studied. It is expected to contribute with the occupational health program resources for welfare of the worker. (author)

  5. Occupational exposure assessment in a radioactive facility: a preliminary evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Alice dos Santos; Gerulis, Eduardo; Sanches, Matias P.; Carneiro, Janete C.G.G., E-mail: alicesante@hotmail.com [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The risk that a worker has found on the job is a function of the hazards present and his exposure level to those hazards. Exposure and risk assessment is therefore the heart of all occupational health and industrial hygiene programs involving a continuous process of information gathering. The use of a systematic method to characterize workplace exposures to chemical, physical and biological risks is a fundamental part of this process. This study aims to carry out a preliminary evaluation in a radioactive facility, identifying potential exposures and consequently the existing occupational hazards (risk/agent) in the workplace which the employee is subject. The study is based on proposal to carry out a basic characterization of the facility, which could be the first step in the investigation of occupational exposure. For this study was essential to know the workplace, potential risks and agents; workforce profile including assignment of tasks, sources of exposure processes, and control measures. The main tool used in this study was based on references, records, standards, procedures, interviews with the workers and with management. Since the basic characterization of the facility has been carried out, consequently the potential exposure to the agents of risks to workers has been identified. The study provided an overview of the perception of risk founded at facility studied. It is expected to contribute with the occupational health program resources for welfare of the worker. (author)

  6. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  7. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  8. Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) by Multi-parametric Observations: Preliminary Results of PRIME experiment within the PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S. A.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparlsan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybukia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Zakharenkova, I.; Romano, G.

    2012-12-01

    The integration of different observations together with the refinement of data analysis methods, is generally expected to improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different international expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase of the project, different parameters (e.g. thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented.

  9. Preliminary Assessment of a Compliant Gait Exoskeleton.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cestari, Manuel; Sanz-Merodio, Daniel; Garcia, Elena

    2017-06-01

    Current commercial wearable gait exoskeletons contain joints with stiff actuators that cannot adapt to unpredictable environments. These actuators consume a significant amount of energy, and their stiffness may not be appropriate for safe human-machine interactions. Adjustable compliant actuators are being designed and implemented because of their ability to minimize large forces due to shocks, to safely interact with the user, and to store and release energy in passive elastic elements. Introduction of such compliant actuation in gait exoskeletons, however, has been limited by the larger power-to-weight and volume ratio requirement. This article presents a preliminary assessment of the first compliant exoskeleton for children. Compliant actuation systems developed by our research group were integrated into the ATLAS exoskeleton prototype. The resulting device is a compliant exoskeleton, the ATLAS-C prototype. The exoskeleton is coupled with a special standing frame to provide balance while allowing a semi-natural gait. Experiments show that when comparing the behavior of the joints under different stiffness conditions, the inherent compliance of the implemented actuators showed natural adaptability during the gait cycle and in regions of shock absorption. Torque tracking of the joint is achieved, identifying the areas of loading response. The implementation of a state machine in the control of knee motion allowed reutilization of the stored energy during deflection at the end of the support phase to partially propel the leg and achieve a more natural and free swing.

  10. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  11. The use of comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography and structure-activity modeling for screening and preliminary risk assessment of organic contaminants in soil, sediment, and surface water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreira Bastos, Patricia; Haglund, Peter [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Chemistry

    2012-08-15

    for further transport and fate modeling, complementary measurements, and more advanced risk assessments. Conclusions: The advantage of using of GC x GC-TofMS for preliminary screenings of contaminated areas was evaluated at a polluted area in northern Sweden. The area was found to carry organic pollutants such as polyaromatic hydrocarbons, aliphatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, phthalic compounds, and many chlorinated pesticides. Preliminary risk assessments indicate which compounds to use for subsequent remediation experiments based on their availability on the site or toxicity. (orig.)

  12. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  13. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  14. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

  15. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC

  16. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  17. Risk Assessment for CPAP Nonadherence in Adults with Newly-diagnosed Obstructive Sleep Apnea: Preliminary Testing of the Index for Nonadherence to PAP (I-NAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Amy M.; King, Tonya S.; Hanlon, Alexandra; Richards, Kathy C.; Sweer, Leon; Rizzo, Albert; Weaver, Terri E.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Identification of risk for CPAP nonadherence prior to home treatment is an opportunity to deliver targeted, adherence interventions. Study objectives included (1) test a risk screening questionnaire to prospectively identify CPAP nonadherence risk among adults with newly-diagnosed OSA; (2) reduce the questionnaire to a minimum item set that effectively identifies 1-month CPAP nonadherence; and (3) examine the diagnostic utility of the screening index. Methods A prospective, longitudinal study at two clinical sleep centers in the U.S. included adults with newly diagnosed OSA (n=97; AHI ≥ 5 events/hr) by polysomnogram (PSG) consecutively recruited to participate. After baseline participant and OSA characteristics were collected, a risk screening questionnaire was administered immediately following CPAP titration polysomnogram. One-month objective CPAP use was collected. Results Predominantly white (87%) males (55%) and females (45%) with obesity (BMI 38.3 kg/m2; SD 9.3) and severe OSA (AHI 36.8; SD 19.7) were included. One-month CPAP use was 4.25hrs/night (SD 2.35). Nineteen questionnaire items (I-NAP) reliably identified nonadherers defined at CPAP use (Wald X2[8] =34.67, p60% (63%). Conclusion A risk screening questionnaire employed immediately after titration PSG may reliably identify CPAP nonadherers and permit the delivery of targeted interventions to prevent or reduce nonadherence. This novel approach may enhance cost-effectiveness of care and permit appropriate allocation of resources for CPAP adherence. PMID:24595715

  18. Comments on SKB's SFL 3-5 preliminary performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Crawford, M.B.

    2000-01-01

    Recently introduced regulations in Sweden have established an individual risk criterion ( -6 per year) for the long-term performance of repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. SKB has not focused its assessment of SFL 3-5 on demonstrating compliance with this regulation. Instead, SKB has calculated individual dose and provided a comparison with an annual individual dose of 14 iSv (derived from the risk criteria using the ICRP's dose-risk conversion factor of 0.073 per Sv). The justification of this approach is that probabilities do not need to be determined if doses are less than the dose equivalent to the risk criterion. However, there is insufficient information regarding uncertainty provided in the documentation of the SFL 3-5 assessment to determine whether this approach is reasonable. SKB's parallel assessment of a repository for spent fuel using the KBS-3 concept (SR 97) accounts for uncertainty by specifying a 'reasonable' and a 'pessimistic' value for uncertain parameters in the assessment calculations. Although there are problems with the way probabilities have been assigned to these values, this approach does indicate where there are significant uncertainties. The SFL 3-5 PA does not include a structured approach to defining uncertainty, although a number of assumptions and parameter values are stated to be conservative. As a preliminary assessment, there is insufficient information to identify key uncertainties or sensitivities, or to determine where further work should be focused. Any assessment requires the use of expert judgement to determine how the assessment is conducted, what modelling approach to use, what features, events and processes (FEPs) could potentially affect the disposal system, which FEPs should be included in the conceptual models, and which scenarios should be assessed. Judgements are also required in determining how to parameterize the models, and this may extend to formal expert elicitation for particular parameter

  19. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  20. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  1. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  2. Preliminary radiological assessments of near-surface low-level radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumerling, T.J.; Nancarrow, D.J.

    1988-08-01

    This report summarises preliminary assessments of post-closure radiological impact of LLW repositories at four sites previously under investigation by UK Nirex Ltd. The objectives of the assessments were: to demonstrate a methodology for site specific assessments, to identify important information requirements for detailed assessments; to identify methodological and research requirements. Doses and risks due to groundwater pathways, human intrusion, gaseous release and natural environmental change are estimated. (author)

  3. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  4. Preliminary Economic Assessment of KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Kee-Hwan; Kim, Seung-Su; Hahn, Do-Hee

    2008-01-01

    The GIF(GEN IV International Forum) established an Economic Modelling Working Group(EMWG) in 2003 to create economic models and guidelines to facilitate in a future evaluation of the Generation IV nuclear energy systems and assess progress toward the GIF economic goals. These goals are to have a life cycle cost advantage over other energy sources, and to have a level of financial risk comparable to other energy projects. To do this, EMWG has been developed the G4-ECONS model, which is a generic EXCEL-based model for computation of the projected levelized unit electricity cost and/or levelized non-electricity unit product cost from GEN IV energy systems. KALIMER-600 has been developed as a new design concept based on the KALIMER-150 design. KALIMER-600 is a unique design concept which has a potential to achieve GEN IV technology goals even though there is a room for a design improvement in order to make the KALIMER-600 more competitive with future generation reactors. The objective of this study is to the assess economics of KALIMER-600 by using the G4-ECONS model

  5. A support vector machine designed to identify breasts at high risk using multi-probe generated REIS signals: a preliminary assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gur, David; Zheng, Bin; Lederman, Dror; Dhurjaty, Sreeram; Sumkin, Jules; Zuley, Margarita

    2010-02-01

    A new resonance-frequency based electronic impedance spectroscopy (REIS) system with multi-probes, including one central probe and six external probes that are designed to contact the breast skin in a circular form with a radius of 60 millimeters to the central ("nipple") probe, has been assembled and installed in our breast imaging facility. We are conducting a prospective clinical study to test the performance of this REIS system in identifying younger women (detection of a highly suspicious breast lesion and 50 were determined negative during mammography screening. REIS output signal sweeps that we used to compute an initial feature included both amplitude and phase information representing differences between corresponding (matched) EIS signal values acquired from the left and right breasts. A genetic algorithm was applied to reduce the feature set and optimize a support vector machine (SVM) to classify the REIS examinations into "biopsy recommended" and "non-biopsy" recommended groups. Using the leave-one-case-out testing method, the classification performance as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.816 +/- 0.042. This pilot analysis suggests that the new multi-probe-based REIS system could potentially be used as a risk stratification tool to identify pre-screened young women who are at higher risk of having or developing breast cancer.

  6. Preliminary regulatory assessment of nuclear power plants vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, V.; Petelin, S.

    2004-01-01

    Preliminary attempts to develop models for nuclear regulatory vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants are presented. Development of the philosophy and computer tools could be new and important insight for management of nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies who face difficult questions about how to assess the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities to external and internal threats. In the situation where different and hidden threat sources are dispersed throughout the world, the assessment of security and safe operation of nuclear power plants is very important. Capability to evaluate plant vulnerability to different kinds of threats, like human and natural occurrences and terrorist attacks and preparation of emergency response plans and estimation of costs are of vital importance for assurance of national security. On the basis of such vital insights, nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies could plan and optimise changes in oversight procedures, organisations, equipment, hardware and software to reduce risks taking into account security and safety of nuclear power plants operation, budget, manpower, and other limitations. Initial qualitative estimations of adapted assessments for nuclear applications are shortly presented. (author)

  7. Suicidal ideation: Are refugees more at risk compared to host population? Findings from a preliminary assessment in a refugee community in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinyemi, O O; Atilola, O; Soyannwo, T

    2015-12-01

    Among the serious mental health problems that may be associated with being a refugee is suicidal behavior. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and correlates of suicidal ideation among African refugees in Oru-Ijebu Nigeria. Suicidal ideation was assessed using appropriate section in the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview while the brief version of the WHO Quality of Life was used to assess quality of life as a clinical variable. Study involved 444 refugees and 527 non-refugee member of host community. Result showed that the prevalence of suicidal ideation was significantly higher among the refugees than the non-refugee comparison group (27.3% vs. 17.3%; prefugees compared with their non-refugee members of same community. Quality of life was the only factor independently associated with suicidal ideations among refugees. In conclusion, the study shows that the prevalence of suicidal ideation is significantly higher among the refugees than the non-refugee members of the host community and calls for innovative ways of extending mental health services to refugees at the study site. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  9. PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL, HEALTH AND SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT ON THE INTEGRATION OF A PROCESS UTILIZING LOW-ENERGY SOLVENTS FOR CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE ENABLED BY A COMBINATION OF ENZYMES AND VACUUM REGENERATION WITH A SUBCRITICAL PC POWER PLANT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fitzgerald, David; Vidal, Rafael; Russell, Tania; Babcock, Doosan; Freeman, Charles; Bearden, Mark; Whyatt, Greg; Liu, Kun; Frimpong, Reynolds; Lu, Kunlei; Salmon, Sonja; House, Alan; Yarborough, Erin

    2014-12-31

    The results of the preliminary environmental, health and safety (EH&S) risk assessment for an enzyme-activated potassium carbonate (K2CO3) solution post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) plant, integrated with a subcritical pulverized coal (PC) power plant, are presented. The expected emissions during normal steady-state operation have been estimated utilizing models of the PCC plant developed in AspenTech’s AspenPlus® software, bench scale test results from the University of Kentucky, and industrial experience of emission results from a slipstream PCC plant utilizing amine based solvents. A review of all potential emission species and their sources was undertaken that identified two credible emission sources, the absorber off-gas that is vented to atmosphere via a stack and the waste removed from the PCC plant in the centrifuge used to reclaim enzyme and solvent. The conditions and compositions of the emissions were calculated and the potential EH&S effects were considered as well as legislative compliance requirements. Potential mitigation methods for emissions during normal operation have been proposed and solutions to mitigate uncontrolled releases of species have been considered. The potential emissions were found to pose no significant EH&S concerns and were compliant with the Federal legislation reviewed. The limitations in predicting full scale plant performance from bench scale tests have been noted and further work on a larger scale test unit is recommended to reduce the level of uncertainty.

  10. Preliminary environmental site assessments in New York City

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundy, P.; Gasson, D.R.; Longendyke, S.T.

    1991-01-01

    Preliminary Environmental Site Assessments are often performed prior to real estate transactions or refinancing. These assessments are typically performed for real estate buyers, sellers and lending institutions. Undertaking a Preliminary Environmental Site Assessment in New York City can often be quite complex and time-consuming. This is due, in part, to the age and density of buildings in the city as well as the myriad of regulatory agencies with jurisdiction over environmental issues. This paper will discuss how environmental assessments are performed with a special emphasis on building in New York City. In includes hazardous wastes management for Radon, PCB's and asbestos

  11. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  12. Preliminary assessments the shortcut to remediation (category III-surplus facility assessments)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byars, L.L.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents the details of the preliminary assessments for the shortcut of decontamination of surplus nuclear facilities. Topics discussed include: environment, health and safety concerns; economic considerations; reduction of transition time; preliminary characterization reports; preliminary project plan; health and safety plan; quality assurance plan; surveillance and maintenance plan; and waste management plan

  13. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  14. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  15. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  16. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  17. Economic valuation of acidic deposition damages: Preliminary results from the 1985 NAPAP [National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program] damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, J.M.; Darwin, R.F.; Nesse, R.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper identifies methods used to evaluate the economic damages of acid deposition in the 1985 Damage Assessment being coordinated by the National Acid Precipitation Program. It also presents the preliminary estimates of economic damages for the Assessment. Economic damages are estimated for four effect areas: commercial agriculture and forests, recreational fishing and selected types of materials. In all but the last area, methods are used which incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and firms or simulated physical damages to resources at risk. The preliminary nature of the estimated damages in each area is emphasized. Over all, the damage estimates should be interpreted with caution. 44 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  18. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  19. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  20. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  1. Tungsten: A Preliminary Environmental Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    Tungsten Effects on Soil Microbial Communities BUILDING STRONG® Actinobacteria Bacteroidetes Firmicutes alpha-Proteobacteria beta-Proteobacteria gamma...Persistence of Actinobacteria & gamma- Proteobacteria • Actinobacteria – includes the actinomycetes  γ-Proteobacteria – includes a variety of microbes

  2. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  3. Preliminary assessment of pump IST effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DiBiasio, A.; Grove, E.; Carbonaro, J.

    1994-01-01

    A preliminary review of Inservice Testing (IST) effectiveness for Code Class 1, 2, and 3 pumps at nuclear power plants was performed. IST requirements are specified by ASME Section XI, and the Operations and Maintenance Standard (OM Part 6). The INPO NPRDS database was used to provide failure reports for these components for 1988 to 1992. This time frame coincides with the issuance of Generic Letter 89-04, which resulted in a more consistent application of the requirements by the licensees. For this time period, 2585 pump failures were reported. A review of these failures indicated that the majority (71.6%) were due to external leakage, and were excluded from this study since these events typically do not affect pump operability and are not detected by the measurement of IST parameters. Of the remaining 733 events, a review was performed to identify the primary failure causes, failure modes, and method of detection. Plant testing programs, consisting of IST, surveillance testing, and special testing, detected approximately 40% of these occurrences. Others were detected through operational abnormalities, routine and incidental observations, alarms, and while performing maintenance. This paper provides a discussion of the results of the study

  4. Preliminary assessment of pump IST effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DiBiasio, A.; Grove, E.; Carbonaro, J.

    1994-01-01

    A preliminary review of inservice testing (IST) effectiveness for Class 1, 2, and 3 pumps at nuclear power plants was performed. IST requirements are specified by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, and the Operations and Maintenance Standard (OM Part 6). The Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System was used to provide failure reports for these components from 1988 to 1992. This time frame coincides with the issuance of Generic Letter 89-04, which resulted in a more consistent application of the requirements by the licensees. For this time, 2,585 pump failures were reported. A review of these failures indicated that the majority (71.6%) resulted from external leakage. These events were excluded from the study because the typically do not affect pump operability and are not detected by the measurement of IST parameters. The remaining 733 events were reviewed to identify the primary failure causes, failure modes, and method of detection. Plant testing programs, consisting of IST, surveillance testing, detected approximately 40% of these occurrences. Others were detected through operational abnormalities, routine and incidental observations, alarms, and while performing maintenance. This paper discusses the results of the study

  5. Preliminary assessment of valve IST effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grove, E.; DiBiasio, A.; Carbonaro, J.

    1994-01-01

    A preliminary review of inservice testing effectiveness for Code Class 1,2, and 3 valves at nuclear power plants was performed. These requirements are specified by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, and the Operations and Maintenance Standard. The Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS) database was used to provide failure reports for these components for 1988 to 1992. This time period coincides with the issuance of Generic Letter 89-04, which resulted in a more consistent application of the requirements by the licensees. For this time period, 8,593 valve failures were identified. From the review of the NPRDS database, the primary failure causes and failure modes for motor-operated valves (MOV), air-operated valves (AOV), and check valves (CV) were identified. Solenoid-operated valves were not reviewed in this study. Plant testing programs were effective in identifying approximately 60% of the CV failures, 46% of the AOV failures, and 44% of the MOV failures

  6. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Analytical Chemistry Core Capability Assessment - Preliminary Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, Mary E.; Farish, Thomas J.

    2012-01-01

    The concept of 'core capability' can be nebulous one. Even at a fairly specific level, where core capability equals maintaining essential services, it is highly dependent upon the perspective of the requestor. Samples are submitted to analytical services because the requesters do not have the capability to conduct adequate analyses themselves. Some requests are for general chemical information in support of R and D, process control, or process improvement. Many analyses, however, are part of a product certification package and must comply with higher-level customer quality assurance requirements. So which services are essential to that customer - just those for product certification? Does the customer also (indirectly) need services that support process control and improvement? And what is the timeframe? Capability is often expressed in terms of the currently utilized procedures, and most programmatic customers can only plan a few years out, at best. But should core capability consider the long term where new technologies, aging facilities, and personnel replacements must be considered? These questions, and a multitude of others, explain why attempts to gain long-term consensus on the definition of core capability have consistently failed. This preliminary report will not try to define core capability for any specific program or set of programs. Instead, it will try to address the underlying concerns that drive the desire to determine core capability. Essentially, programmatic customers want to be able to call upon analytical chemistry services to provide all the assays they need, and they don't want to pay for analytical chemistry services they don't currently use (or use infrequently). This report will focus on explaining how the current analytical capabilities and methods evolved to serve a variety of needs with a focus on why some analytes have multiple analytical techniques, and what determines the infrastructure for these analyses. This information will be

  8. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  10. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  11. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  12. Short communications A preliminary assessment of predictive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The high maintenance requirements of the breeding female contribute largely to this low efficiency (Dickerson, 1978). An improvement of both biological and economical effi- ciency therefore becomes increasingly important. The assessment of efficiency requires measurement of individual feed intake, which is unpractical ...

  13. Bats roosting in public buildings: A preliminary assessment from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Madagascar has many synanthropic bat species but relatively little is known about how people interact with them. A preliminary assessment on the presence of bats in buildings and their interactions with people was conducted in the eastern town of Moramanga. Fifty of the 156 buildings were reported to contain active bat ...

  14. A Preliminary Assessment of Groundwater Samples around a Filling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a preliminary assessment of groundwater samples around a filling station in Diobu area of Port Harcourt for four years at intervals of two years with a view to determine the level of groundwater pollution. It examines the physiochemical, major ions and heavy metal aspect of groundwater quality around the study ...

  15. A preliminary assessment of the chemical and microbial water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A preliminary assessment of the chemical and microbial water quality of the Chunies River - Limpopo: short communication. ... For this purpose sampling was undertaken on 25 and 26 May 2002, and a range of chemical (macro-elements, micro-elements and heavy metals) and microbial variables (HPC, total coliforms and ...

  16. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  17. A preliminary simulative assessment of disproportionality indices

    OpenAIRE

    Migheli, Matteo; Ortona, Guido; Ponzano, Ferruccio

    2009-01-01

    What do indices of disproportionality actually measure? They provide an aggregate estimation of the difference between votes cast and seats assignment, but the relation between the value of the indices and the will of the voters is highly questionable. The reason is that when casting the vote the voter is deeply affected by the electoral system itself, possibly more deeply than s/he understands. The aim of this paper is to assess the performance of the most used indices of disproportionality ...

  18. Hanford Waste Vitrification Project Building limited scope risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, D.J.; Lindberg, S.E.; Reardon, M.F.; Wilson, G.P.

    1992-10-01

    A limited scope risk assessment was performed on the preliminary design of a high-level waste interim storage facility. The Canister Storage Building (CSB) facility will be built to support remediation at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State. The CSB will be part of the support facilities for a high level Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP). The limited scope risk assessment is based on a preliminary design which uses forced air circulation systems to move air through the building vault. The current building design calls for natural circulation to move air through the building vault

  19. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  20. N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

  1. Preliminary radiological assessments of low-level waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Sumerling, T.J.; Ashton, J.

    1988-06-01

    Preliminary assessments of the post-closure radiological impact from the disposal of low-level radioactive wastes in shallow engineered facilities at four sites are presented. This provides a framework to practice and refine a methodology that could be used, on behalf of the Department, for independent assessment of any similar proposal from Nirex. Information and methodological improvements that would be required are identified. (author)

  2. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  3. Preliminary results of Aruba wind resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guda, M.H. [Fundashon Antiyano Pa Energia, Curacao (Netherlands Antilles)

    1996-12-31

    As part of a project to assess the possibilities for wind energy utilitization in the Dutch Antilles islands, windspeed and -direction data were collected in Aruba for two years, from March 1992 to February 1994. Five sites that were estimated to be representative for the islands` wind regimes, were monitored during this period: two sites on the windward coast, one east and one west; two inland sites, again one east and one west, and one site topping the cliffs overlooking the eastern windward coast. Additionally, twenty years worth of data were analyzed for the reference site at the airport, which is in the middle part of the island, on the leeward coast. Correlation calculations between these data and the data for the project sites were performed, in order to establish a methodology for estimating the long-term behavior of the wind regimes at these sites. 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  4. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  5. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  6. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  7. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  8. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  11. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  12. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  13. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  14. Preliminary safety assessment and preliminary safety report for the treated radwaste store, Winfrith

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staples, A.T.

    1992-06-01

    It is the purpose of this assessment to define the categorisation of the Treated Radwaste Store, TRS, B55 at the Winfrith Technology Centre. Its further purpose is to cover all relevant sections required for a Preliminary Safety Report (PSR) encompassing the TRS and the integral Quality Assessment Unit (QUA). The TRS is designed for the interim storage of intermediate level radioactive wastes. All waste material stored in the TRS will be contained within 500 litre stainless steel drums acceptable to NIREX. It is proposed that the TRS will receive 500 litre stainless steel NIREX drums containing either irradiated DRAGON fuel or encapsulated sludge waste. (author)

  15. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  16. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  17. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  18. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  19. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  20. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  1. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  2. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  3. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  4. Hellsgate Winter Range : Wildlife Mitigation Project. Preliminary Environmental Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1995-01-01

    The Bonneville Power Administration proposes funding the Hellsgate Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Project in cooperation with the Colville Convederated Tribes and Bureau of Indian Affairs. This Preliminary Environmental Assessment examines the potential environmental effects of acquiring and managing property for wildlife and wildlife habitat within a large project area. The Propose action is intended to meet the need for mitigation of wildlife and wild life habitat that was adversely affected by the construction of Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph Dams and their reservoirs.

  5. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  6. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  7. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  8. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  9. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  10. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  11. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  12. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  13. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  14. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  15. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  16. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  17. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis; Volume 2, Figures [and] Volume 3, Technical Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R. [Nevada Univ., Las Vegas, NV (United States). Transportation Research Center

    1991-05-31

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history.

  18. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  19. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  20. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  1. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  2. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  3. Qualitative risk assessment as a remediation management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knutson, D.E.

    1991-01-01

    The technique used to complete this thesis utilizes existing NRC and EPA guidance on health-based risk to qualitatively prioritize preliminary assessments and provide a tool for the direction and management of remediation activities. This method is intended as a decision making tool to aid in prioritizing the remediation effort and manage the remedial investigation and feasibility study (RI/FS) process. It is not a replacement for the RI/FS. The methodology for qualitative risk assessment utilizes data gathered in preliminary assessments and calculates the health-based hazards and consequences from contaminants found at each individual location. The health-based qualitative risk indicated that number-sign 6 fuel oil, carbon tetrachloride, depleted uranium, and enriched uranium were the contaminants of major concern, in that order. Plutonium ranked approximately sixth in the contaminant of concern priority. 38 refs., 1 fig., 9 tabs

  4. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  5. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  6. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  7. Cost risk analysis of radioactive waste management Preliminary study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsstroem, J.

    2006-12-01

    This work begins with exposition of the basics of risk analysis. These basics are then applied to the Finnish radioactive waste disposal environment in which the nuclear power companies are responsible for all costs of radioactive waste management including longterm disposal of spent fuel. Nuclear power companies prepare cost estimates of the waste disposal on a yearly basis to support the decision making on accumulation of resources to the nuclear waste disposal fund. These cost estimates are based on the cost level of the ongoing year. A Monte Carlo simulation model of the costs of the waste disposal system was defined and it was used to produce preliminary results of its cost risk characteristics. Input data was synthesised by modifying the original coefficients of cost uncertainty to define a cost range for each cost item. This is a suitable method for demonstrating results obtainable by the model but it is not accurate enough for supporting decision making. Two key areas of further development were identified: the input data preparation and identifying and handling of (i.e. eliminating or merging) interacting cost elements in the simulation model. Further development in both of the mentioned areas can be carried out by co-operating with the power companies as they are the sources of the original data. (orig.)

  8. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  9. California's forest resources. Preliminary assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    This Preliminary Assessment was prepared in response to the California Forest Resources Assessment and Policy Act of 1977 (FRAPA). This Act was passed to improve the information base upon which State resource administrators formulate forest policy. The Act provides for this report and a full assessment by 1987 and at five year intervals thereafter. Information is presented under the following chapter titles: introduction to the forest resources assessment program; the forest area: a general description; classifications of the forest lands; the watersheds; forest lands and the air resource; fish and wildlife resources; the forested rangelands; the wilderness; forest lands as a recreation resource; the timber resource; wood energy; forest lands and the mineral, fossil fuels, and geothermal energy resources; mathematically modeling California's forest lands; vegetation mapping using remote sensing technology; important forest resources legislation; and, State and cooperative State/Federal forestry programs. Twelve indexes, a bibliography, and glossary are included. (JGB)

  10. A preliminary analysis of the risk of transporting nuclear waste to potential candidate commercial repository sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madsen, M.M.

    1984-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, environmental assessments for potential candidate sites are required to provide a basis for selection of the first site for disposal of commercial radioactive waste in deep geologic repositories. A preliminary analysis of the impacts of transportation for each of the five potential sites will be described. Transportation was assumed to be entirely by truck or entirely by rail in order to obtain bounding impacts. This paper presents both radiological and nonradiological risks for the once-through fuel cycle

  11. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  12. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  14. A preliminary assessment of radiation effects on American Flagfish

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tzivaki, M.; Waller, E., E-mail: margarita.tzivaki@uoit.ca [University of Ontario Institute of Technology, Oshawa, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    In order to add to the knowledge base of radiation effects on non-human biota, it is important to define benchmark values for different species. An experimental set-up was designed to investigate effects from irradiation with Cs-137 to American Flagfish. Preliminary experiments to assess the suitability of the methodology were conducted by exposing Flagfish eggs to 44 h of ionizing radiation. The subsequent observation of the developing fry showed no effect on hatching. However, the mortality and observed vertebral malformations were increased with increasing absorbed dose which is suspected to be a result of developmental defects in the embryonic stage. (author)

  15. Preliminary assessment of fleets covered by the Energy Policy Act

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S.; Davis, S.C.; Wang, M.Q. [and others

    1994-12-31

    To facilitate the goal of decreasing oil imports by 10 percent by the year 2000 and 30 percent by 2010, two sections of the Energy Policy Act encourage and mandate alternative fuel vehicles in the acquisition of fleet vehicles. The first step in estimating the contribution of these mandates toward meeting the aforementioned goal entails identifying affected fleets. This paper presents a preliminary assessment of potential vehicle fleet coverage. Only a limited number of companies in the methanol, ethanol, and hydrogen industries are likely to quality for this mandate. Whereas, many of the oil producers, petroleum refiners, and electricity companies are likely to be regulated.

  16. Radiological risk assessment for radioactive contamination at landfill site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devgun, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    A limited-scope preliminary assessment of radiological risk has been conducted for a landfill site where radioactive residues resulting from past uranium ore processing operations are present. Potential radiation doses to an individual under different scenarios have been predicted using the RESRAD computer code. The assessment provides useful input to the remedial action planning for the site that is currently underway. 7 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  17. AVLIS Production Plant Preliminary Quality Assurance Plan and Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    This preliminary Quality Assurance Plan and Assessment establishes the Quality Assurance requirements for the AVLIS Production Plant Project. The Quality Assurance Plan defines the management approach, organization, interfaces, and controls that will be used in order to provide adequate confidence that the AVLIS Production Plant design, procurement, construction, fabrication, installation, start-up, and operation are accomplished within established goals and objectives. The Quality Assurance Program defined in this document includes a system for assessing those elements of the project whose failure would have a significant impact on safety, environment, schedule, cost, or overall plant objectives. As elements of the project are assessed, classifications are provided to establish and assure that special actions are defined which will eliminate or reduce the probability of occurrence or control the consequences of failure. 8 figures, 18 tables

  18. Preliminary environmental assessment for the satellite power system (SPS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-10-01

    A preliminary assessment of the impact of the Satellite Power System (SPS) on the environment is presented. Information that has appeared in documents referenced herein is integrated and assimilated. The state-of-knowledge as perceived from recently completed DOE-sponsored studies is disclosed, and prospective research and study programs that can advance the state-of-knowledge and provide an expanded data base for use in an assessment planned for 1980 are defined. Alternatives for research that may be implemented in order to achieve this advancement are also discussed in order that a plan can be selected which will be consistent with the fiscal and time constraints on the SPS Environmental Assessment Program. Health and ecological effects of microwave radiation, nonmicrowave effects on health and the environment (terrestrial operations and space operations), effects on the atmosphere, and effects on communications systems are examined in detail. (WHK)

  19. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  20. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  2. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  3. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  4. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  5. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    In this study, rail and highway routes which may be used for shipments of high-level nuclear waste to a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada are characterized. This characterization facilitates three types of impact analysis: comparative study, limited worst-case assessment, and more sophisticated probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Data for relative and absolute impact measures are provided to support comparisons of routes based on selected characteristics. A worst-case scenario assessment is included to determine potentially critical and most likely places for accidents or incidents to occur. The assessment facilitated by the data in this study is limited because impact measures are restricted to the identification of potential areas or persons affected. No attempt is made to quantify the magnitude of these impacts. Most likely locations for accidents to occur are determined relative to other locations within the scope of this study. Independent factors and historical trends used to identify these likely locations are only proxies for accident probability

  6. Ecological risk assessment as a framework for environmental impact assessments

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claassen, Marius

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessments in South Africa are usually conducted according to the integrated environmental management (IEM) procedure. The preliminary investigation reported here, indicated that most of the ecological requirements specified...

  7. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  8. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  9. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  10. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

    2015-01-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  11. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  12. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  13. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  14. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  15. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  16. Preliminary Ecotoxicity and Biodegradability Assessment of Metalworking Fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerulová, Kristína; Amcha, Peter; Filická, Slávka

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of activated sludge from sewage treatment plant to degrade selected MWFs (ecotoxicity to bacterial consortium) and to evaluate the ecotoxicity by Lemna minor-higher plant. After evaluating the ecotoxicity, biodegradations rate with activated sludge was assessed on the basis of COD measurement. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity according to OECD 221 by Lemna minor shows effective concentration of Emulzin H at the rate of 81.6 mg l-1, for Ecocool 82.9 mg l-1, for BC 25 about 99.3 mg l-1, and for Dasnobor about 97.3 mg l-1. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity by bacterial consortium according to OECD 209 (STN EN ISO 8192) shows effective concentration of Blasocut BC 25 at the rate 227.4 mg l-1. According to OECD 302B, the biodegradations level of Emulzin H, Ecocool and BC 25 achieved 80% in 10 days. It can be stated that these MWFs have potential to ultimate degradation, but the statement has to be confirmed by a biodegradability test with other parameters than COD, which exhibits some disadvantages in testing O/W emulsions.

  17. Preliminary Screening Assessment of the Potential Impact of the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry on Wildlife

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Sweeck, Lieve; Vives i Batlle, Jordi [SCK.CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol (Belgium)

    2014-07-01

    The activities of the phosphate industry may lead to enhanced levels of naturally occurring radioactivity in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. We here perform a preliminary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of the activities of the phosphate industry (phosphate ore mining, phosphate fertilizer factories, phosphate export platforms). We evaluated the environmental impact of 5 phosphate fertilizer plants (located in Belgium, Spain, Syria, Egypt, Brazil) and one phosphate-mine and phosphate-export platforms in the harbour(both located in Syria). These sites were selected because of the enhanced concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides in the surrounding environments. The ERICA non-human biota assessment tool was used to predict radiation dose rates to the reference organisms and associated risks. Reference organisms were those assigned as default by the ERICA Tool. Potential impact is expressed as a risk quotient (RQ) based on a radiation screening value of 10 μGy h{sup -1}. If RQ ≤ 1, the environment is unlikely at risk and further radiological assessment is deemed not to be required. For all the cases assessed, RQ exceeded 1 for at least one of the reference organisms. {sup 226}Ra or {sup 210}Po were generally the highest contributors to the dose. The aquatic ecosystems in the vicinity of the phosphate fertilizer plants in Tessenderlo (Belgium), Huelva (Spain), Goias (Brazil) and the terrestrial environment around the phosphate mine in Palmyra (Syria) are the ecosystems predicted most at risk. (authors)

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  20. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  1. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  2. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  3. Preliminary assessment on compatibility of DUPIC fuel with CANDU-6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hang-Bok; Roh, G.H.; Jeong, C.J.; Rhee, B.W.; Choi, J.W.; Boss, C.R.

    1997-01-01

    The compatibility of DUPIC fuel with the existing CANDU-6 reactor was assessed. The technical issues of DUPIC fuel compatibility were chosen based on the CANDU physics design requirements and inherent characteristics of DUPIC fuel. The compatibility was assessed for the reference DUPIC fuel composition which was determined to reduce the composition heterogeneity and improve the spent PWR fuel utilization. Preliminary studies on a CANDU core loaded with DUPIC fuel have shown that the nominal power distribution is flatter than that of a natural uranium core when a 2-bundle shift refueling scheme is used, which reduces the reactivity worths of devices in the core and, therefore, the performance of reactivity devices was assessed. The safety of the core was assessed by a LOCA simulation and it was found that the power pulse upon LOCA can be maintained below that in the natural uranium core when a poison material is used in the DUPIC fuel. For the feasibility of handling DUPIC fuel in the plant, it will be necessary to introduce new equipment to load the DUPIC fuel in the refueling magazine. The radiation effect of DUPIC fuel on both the reactor hardware and the environment will be qualitatively analyzed later. (author)

  4. Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badal, J.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; González, Á.

    2005-01-01

    Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence...... of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number...... the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out...

  5. A preliminary assessment of the Titan planetary boundary layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Michael

    1992-01-01

    Results of a preliminary assessment of the characteristic features of the Titan planetary boundary are addressed. These were derived from the combined application of a patched Ekman surface layer model and Rossby number similarity theory. Both these models together with Obukhov scaling, surface speed limits and saltation are discussed. A characteristic Akman depth of approximately 0.7 km is anticipated, with an eddy viscosity approximately equal to 1000 sq cm/s, an associated friction velocity approximately 0.01 m/s, and a surface wind typically smaller than 0.6 m/s. Actual values of these parameters probably vary by as much as a factor of two or three, in response to local temporal variations in surface roughness and stability. The saltation threshold for the windblown injection of approximately 50 micrometer particulates into the atmosphere is less than twice the nominal friction velocity, suggesting that dusty breezes might be an occassional feature of the Titan meteorology.

  6. Preliminary results of an oilspill risk analysis for the Bombay High Region

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.A.M.Q.; Gouveia, A.D.; Sitaraman, R.

    oil were analysed, covering estimates of the time between spill occurrence and contact with resources. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with production within the developmental area. Preliminary results...

  7. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  8. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  9. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  10. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  11. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  12. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  13. The challenges of risk society for impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2017-01-01

    , the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out......This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothe- sis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely...... a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate...

  14. Preliminary psychometric properties of the brief Negative Symptom Scale in youth at Clinical High-Risk for psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Gregory P; Chapman, Hannah C

    2018-03-01

    Preliminary psychometric properties of an adapted version of the Brief Negative Symptom Scale (BNSS) are reported in youth at Clinical High-Risk for psychosis (CHR). Participants included 29 CHR youth who met criteria for a prodromal syndrome on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS). The adapted BNSS demonstrated excellent internal consistency, convergent validity, and discriminant validity, suggesting that the BNSS has utility for assessing negative symptoms in a CHR population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  16. Neuroimaging results, short-term assessment of psychomotor development and the risk of autism spectrum disorder in extremely premature infants (≤28 GA) - a prospective cohort study (preliminary report).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutkowska, Magdalena; Bekiesińska-Figatowska, Monika; Kmita, Grażyna; Terczyńska, Iwona; Polak, Katarzyna; Kalisiak, Marcin; Prażmowska, Dorota; Kiepura, Eliza; Szkudlińska-Pawlak, Sylwia; Seroczyńska, Małgorzata; Helwich, Ewa

    2018-01-01

    Infants ≤28 GA are at particular risk of psychomotor and neurological developmental disorder. They also remain at a higher risk of developing autism spectrum disorder (ASD), characterized by persistent deficits in communication/social interactions and restricted, repetitive behaviors, activities and interests. Monitoring their development by a team of specialists (a neurologist, psychologist, psychiatrist) allows us to make an early diagnosis and to implement appropriate therapy. Neuroimaging studies during the neonatal period may be helpful in clarifying diagnosis and prognosis. Objective: The aim of the study was to search for the interrelation between the results of neuroimaging and the neurological, psychological and psychiatric evaluation at the age of 2. Material and methods: Neonates born at ≤28 weeks between 01.06.2013 and 31.12.2015 and hospitalized at NICU were enrolled. We present the results of the first 12 children who have attained 2 years of corrected age and have undergone both neuroimaging, and neurological, psychological and psychiatric assessments. Transfontanel ultrasound was performed according to general standards, MRI between 38 and 42 weeks of corrected age. Neurological examination based on the Denver scale, ASD screening with use of the STAT test and psychological DSR assessment were performed at 2 years of corrected age. Results: Median GA was 26 weeks and median weight 795 g. The ultrasound examination was normal in 9 cases (75%) and MRI in 4 (33%). Abnormalities in the cerebellum were the main additional information found in MRI as compared to US. Neurological examination was normal in 8 infants (67#37;), in 4 of whom neuroimaging was normal. In 4 (33%) infants the neurological examination was abnormal. Psychomotor development at an average level or above was found in seven (58#37;) children. In 4 of them neuroimaging was normal, whereas 3 had ventricular dilatation and haemorrhagic infarct. There were no abnormalities within the

  17. Preliminary nuclear power reactor technology qualitative assessment for Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shamsul Amri Sulaiman

    2011-01-01

    Since the worlds first nuclear reactor major breakthrough in December 02, 1942, the nuclear power industry has undergone tremendous development and evolution for more than half a century. After surpassing moratorium of nuclear power plant construction caused by catastrophic accidents at Three-mile island (1979) and Chernobyl (1986), today, nuclear energy is back on the policy agendas of many countries, both developed and developing, signaling nuclear revival or nuclear renaissance. Selection of suitable nuclear power technology has thus been subjected to primary attention. This short paper attempts to draw preliminary technology assessment for the first nuclear power reactor technology for Malaysia. Methodology employed is qualitative analysis collating recent finding of tnb-kepco preliminary feasibility study for nuclear power program in peninsular malaysia and other published presentations and/or papers by multiple experts. The results suggested that pressurized water reactor (PWR) is the prevailing technology in terms of numbers and plant performances, and while the commercialization of generation IV reactors is remote (e.g. Not until 2030), generation III/ III+ NPP models are commercially available on the market today. Five (5) major steps involved in reactor technology selection were introduced with a focus on introducing important aspects of selection criteria. Three (3) categories for the of reactor technology selection were used for the cursory evaluation. The outcome of these analyses shall lead to deeper and full analyses of the recommended reactor technologies for a comprehensive feasibility study in the near future. Recommendations for reactor technology option were also provided for both strategic and technical recommendations. The paper shall also implore the best way to select systematically the first civilian nuclear power reactor. (Author)

  18. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  19. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  20. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  1. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  2. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  3. 76 FR 63628 - Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-13

    ...] Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) AGENCY: Federal... Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR). DATES: Comments must be received by November 14, 2011... of the draft Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) on...

  4. Preliminary safety assessment study for the conceptual design of a repository in tuff at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, J.L.; Gram, H.F.; Hong, K.J.; Ng, H.S.; Pendergrass, A.M.

    1984-12-01

    Preliminary estimates of the upper bounds on postulated worst-case radiological releases resulting from possible accidents during the operating period of a prospective repository in tuff at Yucca Mountain are presented. Possible disrupting events are screened to identify the accidents of greatest potential consequence. The radiological dose commitments for the general public and repository personnel are estimated for postulated releases caused by natural phenomena, man-made events, and operational accidents. All postulated worst-case releases result in doses to the public that are lower than the 0.5-rem, whole-body dose-per-accident limit set by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 10 CFR 60. Doses to repository personnel are within the NRC's 5.0-rem/yr occupational exposure limit set in 10 CFR 20 for normal operations. Doses are within this limit for all accidents except the transportation accident and fire in a drift. A preliminary risk assessment has also been performed. Based on this preliminary safety study, the proposed site boundaries and design criteria routinely used in constructing nuclear facilities appear to be adequate to protect the safety of the general public during the operating phase of the repository

  5. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  7. Biocides Steering Group on human exposure assessment: a preliminary report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hemmen, J J

    1999-06-30

    In a project granted by DG XI of the European Commission, it is attempted to collate experimental and theoretical data on human (workers and consumers) exposure assessment to biocidal products, and to outline the methodology for sampling and measurement. On the basis of the available evidence, approaches are presented for the exposure assessment to be used for estimation of risks in authorization procedures under the recently accepted Directive 98/8/EC. Gaps in knowledge are indicated, making it possible to study the issues involved in a comprehensive and cost-effective way. Some recommendations are given on how to best do this. The current project has been detailed in a final report.

  8. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  9. Dose-stress synergism in cancer risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pop-Jordanova, N.; Pop-Jordanov, J.

    2001-01-01

    Our hypothesis is that the relatively low risk of cancer or leukaemia from depleted uranium, as predicted by the World Health Organization and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a result of neglecting the synergism between physico-chemical agents and psychological stress agents (here shortly denoted as dose-stress synergism). We use the modified risk assessment model that comprises a psycho-somatic extension, originally developed by us for assessing the risks of energy sources. Our preliminary meta-analysis of animal and human studies on cancers confirmed the existence of stress effects, including the amplifying synergism. Consequently, the psychological stress can increase the probability of even small toxic chemical or ionizing radiation exposure to produce malignancy. Such dose-stress synergism might influence the health risks among military personnel and the residents in the highly stressful environment in the Balkans. Further investigation is needed to estimate the order of magnitude of these combined effects in particular circumstances. (Original)

  10. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  11. Preliminary assessment of sponge biodiversity on Saba Bank, Netherlands Antilles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert W Thacker

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Saba Bank Atoll, Netherlands Antilles, is one of the three largest atolls on Earth and provides habitat for an extensive coral reef community. To improve our knowledge of this vast marine resource, a survey of biodiversity at Saba Bank included a multi-disciplinary team that sampled fishes, mollusks, crustaceans, macroalgae, and sponges. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A single member of the dive team conducted surveys of sponge biodiversity during eight dives at six locations, at depths ranging from 15 to 30 m. This preliminary assessment documented the presence of 45 species pooled across multiple locations. Rarefaction analysis estimated that only 48 to 84% of species diversity was sampled by this limited effort, clearly indicating a need for additional surveys. An analysis of historical collections from Saba and Saba Bank revealed an additional 36 species, yielding a total of 81 sponge species recorded from this area. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This observed species composition is similar to that found on widespread Caribbean reefs, indicating that the sponge fauna of Saba Bank is broadly representative of the Caribbean as a whole. A robust population of the giant barrel sponge, Xestospongia muta, appeared healthy with none of the signs of disease or bleaching reported from other Caribbean reefs; however, more recent reports of anchor chain damage to these sponges suggests that human activities can have dramatic impacts on these communities. Opportunities to protect this extremely large habitat should be pursued, as Saba Bank may serve as a significant reservoir of sponge species diversity.

  12. Wind power in Eritrea, Africa: A preliminary resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garbesi, K.; Rosen, K. [San Jose State Univ., CA (United States); Van Buskirk, R. [Dept. of Energy, Eritrea (Ethiopia)

    1997-12-31

    The authors preliminary assessment of Eritrean wind energy potential identified two promising regions: (1) the southeastern Red Sea coast and (2) the mountain passes that channel winds between the coastal lowlands and the interior highlands. The coastal site, near the port city of Aseb, has an exceptionally good resource, with estimated average annual wind speeds at 10-m height above 9 m/s at the airport and 7 m/s in the port. Furthermore, the southern 200 km of coastline has offshore WS{sub aa} > 6 m/s. This area has strong potential for development, having a local 20 MW grid and unmet demand for the fishing industry and development. Although the highland sites contain only marginal wind resources ({approximately} 5 m/s), they warrant further investigation because of their proximity to the capital city, Asmera, which has the largest unmet demand and a larger power grid (40 MW with an additional 80 MW planned) to absorb an intermittent source without storage.

  13. Preliminary Assessment of the Flow of Used Electronics, In ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Electronic waste (e-waste) is the largest growing municipal waste stream in the United States. The improper disposal of e-waste has environmental, economic, and social impacts, thus there is a need for sustainable stewardship of electronics. EPA/ORD has been working to improve our understanding of the quantity and flow of electronic devices from initial purchase to final disposition. Understanding the pathways of used electronics from the consumer to their final disposition would provide insight to decision makers about their impacts and support efforts to encourage improvements in policy, technology, and beneficial use. This report is the first stage of study of EPA/ORD's efforts to understand the flows of used electronics and e-waste by reviewing the regulatory programs for the selected states and identifying the key lessons learned and best practices that have emerged since their inception. Additionally, a proof-of-concept e-waste flow model has been developed to provide estimates of the quantity of e-waste generated annually at the national level, as well as for selected states. This report documents a preliminary assessment of available data and development of the model that can be used as a starting point to estimate domestic flows of used electronics from generation, to collection and reuse, to final disposition. The electronics waste flow model can estimate the amount of electronic products entering the EOL management phase based on unit sales dat

  14. Preliminary Groundwater Assessment using Electrical Method at Quaternary Deposits Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazreek, Z. A. M.; Raqib, A. G. A.; Aziman, M.; Azhar, A. T. S.; Khaidir, A. T. M.; Fairus, Y. M.; Rosli, S.; Fakhrurrazi, I. M.; Izzaty, R. A.

    2017-08-01

    Alternative water sources using groundwater has increasingly demand in recent years. In the past, proper and systematic study of groundwater potential was varies due to several constraints. Conventionally, tube well point was drilled based on subjective judgment of several parties which may lead to the uncertainties of the project success. Hence, this study performed an electrical method to investigate the groundwater potential at quaternary deposits area particularly using resistivity and induced polarization technique. Electrical method was performed using ABEM SAS4000 equipment based on pole dipole array and 2.5 m electrode spacing. Resistivity raw data was analyzed using RES2DINV software. It was found that groundwater was able to be detected based on resistivity and chargeability values which varied at 10 - 100 Ωm and 0 - 1 ms respectively. Moreover, suitable location of tube well was able to be proposed which located at 80 m from the first survey electrode in west direction. Verification of both electrical results with established references has shown some good agreement thus able to convince the result reliability. Hence, the establishment of electrical method in preliminary groundwater assessment was able to assist several parties in term groundwater prospective at study area which efficient in term of cost, time, data coverage and sustainability.

  15. Waste to biodiesel: A preliminary assessment for Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehan, M; Gardy, J; Demirbas, A; Rashid, U; Budzianowski, W M; Pant, Deepak; Nizami, A S

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a preliminary assessment of biodiesel production from waste sources available in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) for energy generation and solution for waste disposal issues. A case study was developed under three different scenarios: (S1) KSA population only in 2017, (S2) KSA population and pilgrims in 2017, and (S3) KSA population and pilgrims by 2030 using the fat fraction of the municipal solid waste. It was estimated that S1, S2, and S3 scenarios could produce around 1.08, 1.10 and 1.41 million tons of biodiesel with the energy potential of 43423, 43949 and 56493 TJ respectively. Furthermore, annual savings of US $55.89, 56.56 and 72.71 million can be generated from landfill diversion of food waste and added to the country's economy. However, there are challenges in commercialization of waste to biodiesel facilities in KSA, including waste collection and separation, impurities, reactor design and biodiesel quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  17. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  18. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  19. Preliminary biogeochemical assessment of EPICA LGM and Holocene ice samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulat, S.; Alekhina, I.; Marie, D.; Wagenbach, D.; Raynaud, D.; Petit, J. R.

    2009-04-01

    weak signals were possible to generate which are now under cloning. The signals were hard to reproduce because of rather low volume of samples. More ice volume is needed to get the biosignal stronger and reproducible. Meantime we are adjusting PCR and in addition testing DNA repair-enzyme cocktail in case of DNA damage. As a preliminary conclusion we would like to highlight the following. Both Holocene and LGM ice samples (EDC99 and EDML) are very clean in terms of Ultra low biomass and Ultra low DOC content. The most basal ice of EDC and EDML ice cores could help in assessing microbial biomass and diversity if present under the glacier at the ice-bedrock boundary. * The present-day consortium includes S. Bulat, I. Alekhina, P. Normand, D. Prieur, J-R. Petit and D. Raynaud (France) and E. Willerslev and J.P. Steffensen (Denmark)

  20. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  1. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  2. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  3. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  4. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  5. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  6. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  7. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  8. Distribution and preliminary exposure assessment of bisphenol AF (BPAF) in various environmental matrices around a manufacturing plant in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Shanjun; Ruan, Ting; Wang, Thanh; Liu, Runzeng; Jiang, Guibin

    2012-12-18

    Increasing attention has been paid to bisphenol A and bisphenol (BP) analogues due to high production volumes, wide usage and potential adverse effects. Bisphenol AF (BPAF) is considered a new bisphenol analogue which is used as raw material in plastic industry, but little is known about its occurrence in the environment and the potential associated risk. In this work, BPAF levels and environmental distribution were reported in samples collected around a manufacturing plant and a preliminary exposure risk assessment to local residents was conducted. BPAF was detected in most of the samples, with levels in river ranging between environment and organic carbon was the domain factor during the process. The preliminary BPAF exposure assessment based on the CSOIL model suggested that children could have higher intake of BPAF than adults through inhalation of soils, dermal exposure by soils contact and bathing with well water.

  9. EPA Releases Neonicotinoid Assessments for Public Comment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Release of preliminary ecological and human health risk assessments for the neonicotinoid insecticides clothianidin, thiamethoxam, and dinotefuran, and a preliminary ecological risk assessment for imidacloprid, assessing risks to birds,mammals, non-target

  10. Preliminary assessment of the gender aspects of disaster vulnerability and loss of human life in South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Tandlich, Roman; Chirenda, Tatenda G; Srinivas, Chandra S S

    2013-01-01

    South Africa has reached a medium level of human development and has a heterogeneous situation with respect to disaster risk management. In this article, a preliminary assessment of the gender aspects of disaster vulnerability and fatalities is presented. The United Nations, the Health Systems Trust and Statistics South Africa were used as data sources for the following gender-segregated values: the life expectancy at birth, unemployment rates, the human development index values, the maternal...

  11. Risk-informed analysis as a support to the preliminary design of the CEA GFR2400

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertrand, F.; Bassi, C.; Azria, P.; Bentivoglio, F.; Messie, A.; Balmain, M.

    2012-01-01

    The integration of safety issues in the early phase of the design of a 4. generation reactor of the concepts is expected. For this purpose, probabilistic insights are increasingly employed in the safety demonstration in combination with the deterministic approach in the frame of a so-called risk informed approach. The present paper deals with the safety assessment of the preliminary design of the GFR2400 developed by CEA and how it has been improved in order to fulfil deterministic criteria as well as to reach a risk level comparable to the generation III reactors. GFR2400 is a 2400 MWth, 3-loops, helium-cooled fast reactor developed at a pre-conceptual design stage whose secondary circuit is filled with a mixture of helium and nitrogen, the ternary circuit being filled with water vaporized in 3 steam generators according to a classical Rankine cycle. The resulting cycle efficiency is very close to 45 %. Considering the results obtained with a preliminary level 1 PSA (L1PSA) model, it emerged that an increased reliability of the DHR (Decay Heat Removal) function in high pressure conditions (not corresponding to a LOCA) was suitable to reduce the overall core damage frequency. On the other hand, some small break LOCA situations were not adequately mitigated according to the line of protection deterministic method. Both issues have been solved by design improvements. In addition, this final L1PSA model, characterized by success criteria based on transient calculations performed with the CATHARE2 code and performed in a perimeter extended to all representative internal initiating events at full operating power, permitted to propose design evolutions that did not increase significantly the CDF. In the same time, those evolutions enabled the DHR system to increase its redundancy level as required in the deterministic approach. Finally, a modified design has been reached implying a more extended covering of various accidental situations by means of a progressive DHR

  12. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  13. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  14. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  15. New method of scoliosis assessment: preliminary results using computerized photogrammetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aroeira, Rozilene Maria Cota; Leal, Jefferson Soares; de Melo Pertence, Antônio Eustáquio

    2011-09-01

    A new method for nonradiographic evaluation of scoliosis was independently compared with the Cobb radiographic method, for the quantification of scoliotic curvature. To develop a protocol for computerized photogrammetry, as a nonradiographic method, for the quantification of scoliosis, and to mathematically relate this proposed method with the Cobb radiographic method. Repeated exposure to radiation of children can be harmful to their health. Nevertheless, no nonradiographic method until now proposed has gained popularity as a routine method for evaluation, mainly due to a low correspondence to the Cobb radiographic method. Patients undergoing standing posteroanterior full-length spine radiographs, who were willing to participate in this study, were submitted to dorsal digital photography in the orthostatic position with special surface markers over the spinous process, specifically the vertebrae C7 to L5. The radiographic and photographic images were sent separately for independent analysis to two examiners, trained in quantification of scoliosis for the types of images received. The scoliosis curvature angles obtained through computerized photogrammetry (the new method) were compared to those obtained through the Cobb radiographic method. Sixteen individuals were evaluated (14 female and 2 male). All presented idiopathic scoliosis, and were between 21.4 ± 6.1 years of age; 52.9 ± 5.8 kg in weight; 1.63 ± 0.05 m in height, with a body mass index of 19.8 ± 0.2. There was no statistically significant difference between the scoliosis angle measurements obtained in the comparative analysis of both methods, and a mathematical relationship was formulated between both methods. The preliminary results presented demonstrate equivalence between the two methods. More studies are needed to firmly assess the potential of this new method as a coadjuvant tool in the routine following of scoliosis treatment.

  16. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  17. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  18. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  19. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  20. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  1. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  2. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  3. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  4. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  5. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  6. A preliminary model to identify low-risk MBA applicants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CA Bisschoff

    2014-08-01

    The reliability of the discriminant function rates favourably with 71% (MBA in 3 years, 62% (MBA in 4 years and 83% (dropping out of the programme being categorised correctly by the respective discriminant functions. Being a preliminary model, its predictive capabilities need to be verified in practice before it can  be implemented as tool to render assistance in MBA admissions.  The value of this research lies  in the fact that it constitutes a model that could be employed and improved as a predictive tool in an environment where very limited predictive tools exist.  Therefore, although it is by no means a tried and tested model, it sets the scene by supplying a scientific base from which incremental improvements could result.

  7. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  8. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  9. Preliminary Mineral Resource Assessment of Selected Mineral Deposit Types in Afghanistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludington, Steve; Orris, Greta J.; Bolm, Karen S.; Peters, Stephen G.; ,

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Wise decision-making and management of natural resources depend upon credible and reliable scientific information about the occurrence, distribution, quantity and quality of a country's resource base. Economic development decisions by governments require such information to be part of a Mineral Resource Assessment. Such Mineral Assessments are also useful to private citizens and international investors, consultants, and companies prior to entry and investment in a country. Assessments can also be used to help evaluate the economic risks and impact on the natural environment associated with development of resources. In February 2002, at the request of the Department of State and the then U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan (Robert P. Finn), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prepared a detailed proposal addressing natural resources issues critical to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. The proposal was refined and updated in December 2003 and was presented as a 5-year work plan to USAID-Kabul in February 2004. USAID-Kabul currently funds this plan and this report presents a part of the preliminary results obligated for fiscal year 2006. A final Preliminary Assessment of the Non Fuel Mineral Resource of Afghanistan will be completed and delivered at the end of fiscal year 2007. Afghanistan has abundant metallic and non-metallic resources, but the potential resources have never been systematically assessed using modern methods. Much of the existing mineral information for Afghanistan was gathered during the 1950s and continued in the late 1980s until the departure of the geologic advisors from the Soviet Union. During this period, there were many mineral-related activities centered on systematic geologic mapping of the country, collection of geochemical and rock samples, implementation of airborne geophysical surveys, and exploration focused on the discovery of large mineral deposits. Many reports, maps, charts, and tables were produced at that time. Some of

  10. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  11. Preliminary health cancer risk assessment for arsenic exposure in a contaminated area close to a fertilizer plant in Moscow region (Russia); Valutazione preliminare del rischio sanitario cancerogeno per esposizione ad arsenico in un'area contaminata da un'industria di fertilizzanti nella regione di Mosca (Russia)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zakharova, T. [Moscow Univ., Moscow (Russian Federation). Dept. of Chemistry, Lab. of Industrial Safety, Div. of Chemical Technology; Tatano, F. [Urbino Univ., Urbino (Italy). Facolta' di Scienze Ambientali

    2001-09-01

    At present, fertilizer plants are considered as one of the main sources of potentially contaminated areas in Russia. In this paper, an interesting experimental case-study area located in Moscow Region has been considered for the preliminary health cancer risk assessment for arsenic exposure. Arsenic has been selected as the individual contaminant indicator, according to a specific, original selection procedure presented in the paper. For estimating the human exposure to arsenic through multiple pathways, the original McKone and Daniels 91 model has been used. As a result of this preliminary assessment step for the case-study area, the calculated individual cancer risk levels for arsenic exposure through (in risk ranking order) consumption of agricultural products - consumption of drinking water - dermal contact - direct soil ingestion - ingestion of dairy products are significant. The present paper could be assumed too as a contribution (for comparison and stimulus) to the actual, Italian situation of soil quality criteria, especially regarding the agricultural land use. [Italian] Le aree interessate dalla presenza di impianti di produzione di fertilizzanti, rappresentano attualmente una rilevante sorgenti di siti potenzialmente contaminati in Russia. Nel presente lavoro, viene affrontato un interessante caso sperimentale di studio localizzato nella Regione di Mosca, per il quale viene condotta la valutazione preliminare del rischio sanitario cancerogeno per esposizione ad arsenico (contaminante selezionato come indicatore, mediante apposita procedura descritta nel lavoro). Allo scopo, e' stato implementato l'originale modello multiplo di valutazione dell'esposizione umana cosiddetto McKone and Daniels 91. Per l'area in studio, i livelli massimi possibili risultanti di rischio cancerogeno per l'arsenico connessi alle vie di migrazione (nell'ordine) ingestione di prodotti agricoli - assunzione di acqua di falda - contatto dermico

  12. Preliminary impact assessment of effusive eruptions at Etna volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappello, Annalisa; Michaud-Dubuy, Audrey; Branca, Stefano; De Beni, Emanuela; Del Negro, Ciro

    2016-04-01

    Lava flows are a recurring and widespread form of volcanic activity that threaten people and property around the world. The growing demographic congestion around volcanic structures increases the potential risks and costs that lava flows represent, and leads to a pressing need for faster and more accurate assessment of lava flow impact. To fully evaluate potential effects and losses that an effusive eruption may cause to society, property and environment, it is necessary to consider the hazard, the distribution of the exposed elements at stake and the associated vulnerability. Lava flow hazard assessment is at an advanced state, whereas comprehensive vulnerability assessment is lacking. Cataloguing and analyzing volcanic impacts provide insight on likely societal and physical vulnerabilities during future eruptions. Here we quantify the lava flow impact of two past main effusive eruptions of Etna volcano: the 1669, which is the biggest and destructive flank eruption to have occurred on Etna in historical time, and the 1981, lasting only 6 days, but characterized by an intense eruptive dynamics. Different elements at stake are considered, including population, hospitals, critical facilities, buildings of historic value, industrial infrastructures, gas and electricity networks, railways, roads, footways and finally land use. All these elements were combined with the 1669 and 1981 lava flow fields to quantify the social damage and economic loss.

  13. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  14. 75 FR 1770 - An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-13

    ... qualitative aspects of the risk assessment because of the type of genomic data available for DBP. It is... Assessment (NCEA) within EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). Toxicogenomics is the application of... exploratory methods for analyzing genomic data for application to risk assessment and some preliminary results...

  15. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  16. Preliminary plan for case-control crash risk study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-31

    The goal of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is to reduce commercial vehicle-related fatalities and injuries. This is achieved through a thorough understanding of crash characteristics, precursors, and risk factors. This will h...

  17. Preliminary analysis of hydrogen risk caused by dust in ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng Kun; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

    2012-01-01

    A lot of dust will be generated during ITER operation,and hydrogen will be produced by the interaction of hot dust with water in the case of coolant ingress accident. The accumulated hydrogen will bring risk of combustion and explosion,which will damage the device. CFD method has been used to analyze the produced hydrogen in 'wet bypass' scenario, and come to the results that hydrogen will burn and explode at the beginning of the accident, different hydrogen risk will be brought by different coolant leakage, and hydrogen risk will be inert if the leakage is massive.Injecting CO 2 to inert the vacuum vessel has also been discussed, the risk of hydrogen will be suppressed by injecting CO 2 with a large rate at the beginning of accident. (authors)

  18. Methodology and a preliminary data base for examining the health risks of electricity generation from uranium and coal fuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Bassioni, A.A.

    1980-08-01

    An analytical model was developed to assess and examine the health effects associated with the production of electricity from uranium and coal fuels. The model is based on a systematic methodology that is both simple and easy to check, and provides details about the various components of health risk. A preliminary set of data that is needed to calculate the health risks was gathered, normalized to the model facilities, and presented in a concise manner. Additional data will become available as a result of other evaluations of both fuel cycles, and they should be included in the data base. An iterative approach involving only a few steps is recommended for validating the model. After each validation step, the model is improved in the areas where new information or increased interest justifies such upgrading. Sensitivity analysis is proposed as the best method of using the model to its full potential. Detailed quantification of the risks associated with the two fuel cycles is not presented in this report. The evaluation of risks from producing electricity by these two methods can be completed only after several steps that address difficult social and technical questions. Preliminary quantitative assessment showed that several factors not considered in detail in previous studies are potentially important. 255 refs., 21 figs., 179 tabs.

  19. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  20. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  1. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  2. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  3. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  4. 78 FR 8522 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Evaluation of the Potential Risk From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-06

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OPP-2008-0850; FRL-9376-5] Chlorpyrifos Registration... preliminary volatilization assessment for the registration review of chlorpyrifos and opens a public comment... assessment for chlorpyrifos uses. After reviewing comments received during the public comment period, EPA...

  5. 78 FR 32231 - Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment, Environmental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-29

    ...] Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment, Environmental Assessment... has prepared a preliminary determination regarding a request from Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc... 340. APHIS received a petition (APHIS Petition Number 11-063-01p) from Pioneer Hi-Bred International...

  6. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  7. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  8. Assessment of risks and costs associated with transportation of US Department of Energy radioactively contaminated carbon steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.-Y.; Arnish, J.J.; Nieves, L.A.; Folga, S.M.

    1996-09-01

    This report provides a preliminary assessment of potential human health risks and develops unit risks and costs for transporting radioactively contaminated carbon steel (RCCS) scrap between U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The RCCS would be generated from DOE activities (current or future) and from decontamination and decommissioning of DOE facilities. The estimates of transportation system risk reflect preliminary information regarding the quantities of RCCS at some sites and the spectrum of activity in RCCS at various types of DOE facilities

  9. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  10. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  11. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Preliminary results from the application of risk matrix method for safety assessment in industrial radiography; Resultados preliminares de la aplicacion del metodo de matrices de riesgo para evaluaciones de seguridad en radiografia industrial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez G, A.; Cruz, D. [Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias, Dr. Barragan 779, Col. Narvarte, 03020 Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico); Truppa, W. [Autoridad Reguladora Nuclear, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Aravena, M. [Comision Chilena de Energia Nuclear, Santiago (Chile); Tamayo, B., E-mail: alopezg@cnsns.gob.mx [Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Madrid (Spain)

    2015-09-15

    Although the uses of ionizing radiation in industry are subject to procedures that provide a high level of safety, experience has shown that equipment failure, human errors, or the combination of both that can trigger accidental exposures may occur. Traditionally, the radiation safety checks whether these industrial practices (industrial radiography, industrial irradiators, among others) are sufficiently safe to prevent similar accidental exposures already occurred, so that becomes dependent on the published information and not always answers questions like: What other events can occur, or what other risks are present? Taking into account the results achieved by the Foro Iberoamericano de Organismos Reguladores Radiologicos y Nucleares, its leading position in the use of techniques of risk analysis in radioactive facilities and the need to develop a proactive approach to the prevention of accidents arising from the use of ionizing radiations in the industry, it intends to apply the risk analysis technique known as Risk Matrix to a hypothetical reference entity for the region in which industrial radiography is performed. In this paper the results of the first stage of this study are shown, that is the identification of initiating events (IE) and barriers that help mitigate the consequences of such IE, so that can appreciate the applicability of this method to industrial radiography services, to reduce the risk to acceptable levels. The fundamental advantage associated with the application of this methodology is that can be applied by the professionals working in the service and identifies specific weaknesses that from the point of view of safety there, so they can be prioritized resources depending on risk reduction. (Author)

  13. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, R. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Blohm, A. J. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Henriques, J. J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, E L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.

    2015-08-15

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure

  14. Preliminary Investigation of Risk Factors Causing Dyskinesias in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: To determine the risk factors involved in the onset of dyskinesias in patients suffering from Parkinson's disease in South Africa. Methods: A questionnaire survey and medical record review were conducted. A total of 43 patients with Parkinson's disease in two metropolitan areas were included in the study. Results: ...

  15. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  16. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  17. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  18. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  19. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  20. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  1. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  2. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  3. Preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system based on information in the literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luick, A.E.; Fecht, B.A.; Nilson, S.A.; Sevigny, N.L.; Armstrong, G.R.; Hill, D.H.; Rowe, M.; Stern, E.

    1992-01-01

    This document presents preliminary information on the radiological and nonradiological risks in the nuclear waste management system. The objective of the study was to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitude of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management systems. The study examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system currently expected to be developed by the DOE. The scope of this document includes the potential repository, the integral MRS facility, and the transportation system that supports the potential repository and the MRS facility. Relevant literature was reviewed for several potential repository sites and geologic media. A wide range of ''risk categories'' are addressed in this report: (1) public and occupational risks from accidents that could release radiological materials, (2) public and occupational radiation exposure resulting from routine operations, (3) public and occupational risks from accidents involving hazards other than radioactive materials, and (4) public and occupational risks from exposure to nonradioactive hazardous materials during routine operations. The report is intended to provide a broad spectrum of risk-related information about the waste management system. This information is intended to be helpful for planning future studies

  4. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  5. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  6. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  7. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  8. Development of sensitive and reliable LC-MS/MS methods for the determination of three fluoroquinolones in water and fish tissue samples and preliminary environmental risk assessment of their presence in two rivers in northern Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagil, Marta; Kumirska, Jolanta; Stolte, Stefan; Puckowski, Alan; Maszkowska, Joanna; Stepnowski, Piotr; Białk-Bielińska, Anna

    2014-09-15

    Antibiotic consumption (e.g. fluoroquinolones (FQs)) and, as a consequence, their presence in the environment, have received a lot of attention in the last several years due to increasing numbers of diseases and infections that are becoming resistant to traditional treatments for both humans and animals. In addition, even though antibiotics are safe for human and veterinary usage, ecosystems may be exposed to these substances. In this study, analytical methods for determining enrofloxacin (ENR), norfloxacin (NOR) and ciprofloxacin (CIP) in water samples and fish tissue based on the LC-MS/MS technique were developed and validated. As there is no data available concerning the risks posed by antibiotics in Poland, the proposed methods were applied for monitoring drug presence in environmental samples collected from two rivers in northern Poland. Evaluations of the ecotoxicity of ENR, NOR and CIP towards four different species of aquatic organisms: marine bacteria (Vibrio fischeri), green algae (Scenedesmus vacuolatus), duckweed (Lemna minor) and crustacean (Daphnia magna), were also carried out. All the investigated compounds were detected at least once in the survey. NOR was found to be the most ubiquitous drug with concentrations of up to 442.8 ng L(-1). Moreover, it was established that L. minor is the most sensitive species to the investigated drugs (EC50NOR = 0.13 mg L(-1), EC50ENR = 0.22 mg L(-1) and EC50CIP = 0.34 mg L(-1)). The calculated risk quotient (RQ) values confirmed that the concentrations of the investigated FQs in the environmental samples were at a level of moderate environmental risk (1environmental risk (RQCIP = 8.1). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  10. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  11. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  12. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  13. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  14. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  15. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  16. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  17. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  18. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  19. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  20. Assessment of the knowledge and attitudes of preliminary school students toward smoking in Baghdad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbas Jabbar Sahib

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Early smoking considered as a major challenge for health promoters, as well it is socially not acceptable, thus interventions must tackle childhood starts of smoking.Aim: Assessing the knowledge and attitude of preliminary students towards tobacco use. Methods: A cross-sectional study conducted among 2195, 5th grade students from 30 preliminary schools in Baghdad (15 from each side Karkh & Rusafa during November 2014. They were selected by multistage sampling technique.Results:  Participated students age ranged between (10-13 years and (51.9% of them were girls, (54.3% of their parents were nonsmoker while the rest reported that both or one of them are smokers, direct and indirect risks of cigarette  smoking were known by (82.4% and (66.2% respectively, and (70.8% of students’ families were found to wear their kids from smoking hazards, while more than (50% of them have received health education massages from their teachers. Sitting near smoker person was not in favor of (86.2% of the participants, as (51.4% considered it religiously inconvenient and (34.6% considered smoking as a sign of no self-confidence. At last, (73.7% of the surveyed students agreed with smoking prohibition in public places while (25.8% opposed that.Conclusion: In spite of the high percentage of students’ parents were smokers; nevertheless, risks of smoking are well known by the surveyed students and they showed positive attitudes toward smoking prohibition in public places. Parental advising for quit smoking and urging teachers to educate their students about smoking hazards are thought to be the right action.

  1. Size, Diversification and Risk: Preliminary Evidence from Commercial Banks in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayesha Afzal

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide some preliminary evidence on relation between size, diversification and risk in commercial banks of Pakistan. Using a panel of Pakistani banks, we investigated whether bigger banks are better diversified than smaller banks.The results suggested that larger banks were more diversified than their smaller counterparts mainly on account of their outreach and size of credit portfolio. On the risk side, based on accounting and market based risk measures, we explored if there is any impact of diversification on risk. We could not deduce significant result in favor of accounting risk measure of impaired lending signaling that banks find no incentive in diversification of credit books. The market based measures of VaR and Default indicator were significantly related to diversification signifying that market participants consider diversification as a relevant tool for risk mitigation. These findings have policy implications for regulators and risk management to ensure stability in financial system.

  2. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  3. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  4. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  5. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  6. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  8. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  9. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  10. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  11. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  12. Ethical Values and Biological Diversity: A Preliminary Assessment Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel I. Cohen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available There have been five major extinction events over geological time. However, the current rate of extinction or reduction of species and their habitats is directly related to anthropomorphic causes. For seventh grade students, biodiversity and its ethical considerations were introduced in a life sciences curriculum, following lessons on evolution, natural selection, and decent from common ancestry. This paper takes a preliminary look at the approach used in this unit, the ethical survey developed, and improvements to be made in subsequent years.

  13. Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

    2016-01-01

    We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

  14. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  15. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  16. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  17. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  18. Preliminary survey for communicating risk in medical exposure. Perception of risk among nurses working in radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanda, Reiko; Tsuji, Satsuki; Shirakawa, Yoshiyuki; Yonehara, Hidenori

    2008-01-01

    A questionnaire survey was conducted on radiation risk and medical exposure, particularly in applications involving children. The survey was targeted at nurses (170 females) engaged in important roles in communicating risk regarding medical exposure. The questionnaire survey yielded the following findings. A significant number of respondents associated the word radiation' with 'cancer treatment,' 'exposure,' and 'X-ray pictures.' Perceptions about 'food exposure' differed between respondents with children and those without. Among the potential health problems posed by radiation, effects on children,' 'cancer and leukemia,' and 'genetic effects' were perceived as the most worrisome. Significant differences in perception were noted regarding infertility between respondents with children and those without. Concerning the effects of medical exposure on fetuses/children, only 10 percent of all respondents replied that they were not anxious about negative effects in either case. Among the respondents who felt uneasy about these aspects, most tended to assess exposed parts, doses, damage potentially suffered, timing of occurrence, and uncertainty, based on their professional experience and knowledge, to rationally distinguish acceptable risks from unacceptable ones and to limit concern to the unacceptable aspects. (author)

  19. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  20. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  1. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  2. Risk of caries and oral health: preliminary study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcello Gatti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The incidence of injury cariosa remains high, despite the improvements achieved in the last years. Recent national epidemiological surveys, 4 years old children have healthy teeth in 80% of cases at 12 years the percentage is reduced to 50%. In Italy, the almost total absence on the territory of “dental services to the Community”, makes even more difficult to achieve a solution to the problem “caries.” To address this problem, the Ministry of Labor, Health and Social Policy in October 2008 adopted the national guidelines in order to make suggestions to the various professionals (pediatricians, dentists, microbiologists, dental hygienists, etc., making them interact to maintain and restore oral health. It was the first time that the Ministry of Health has addressed the problem by inserting the figure of the microbiologist in dentistry. Aims. The present study aim was to identify subjects at risk of caries by clinical microbiological testing of saliva and the index DMFT/dmft (Decayed, Missing and Filling Permanent Teeth in both adults and particularly children in order to take preventive measures early as reported in “National guidelines for the promotion of oral health and prevention of oral diseases in age of development”. The study began in June 2009 and will last one year with as goal to have, in 2010, 90% of children between 5 and 6 years caries free and 18 years with any lost tooth decay. Materials and methods. Recruited 164 patients were divided into three age groups: 124 adults aged between 20 and 40 years, 40 children which 21 till 5 years old and 19 till 12 years old. Microbiological testing was aimed by finding CFU / ml of saliva of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacillus spp., Slide CRT bacteria (Ivoclar. Clinically, intraoral examination was performed to evaluate the DMFT (Decayed teeth, Missing or Filling calculated over 28 permanent teeth and the dmft (decayed teeth, missing or filling calculated on 20

  3. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  4. Preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This volume documents model parameters chosen as of July 1992 that were used by the Performance Assessment Department of Sandia National Laboratories in its 1992 preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Ranges and distributions for about 300 modeling parameters in the current secondary data base are presented in tables for the geologic and engineered barriers, global materials (e.g., fluid properties), and agents that act upon the WIPP disposal system such as climate variability and human-intrusion boreholes. The 49 parameters sampled in the 1992 Preliminary Performance Assessment are given special emphasis with tables and graphics that provide insight and sources of data for each parameter

  5. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  6. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  7. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  9. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  10. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  11. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  12. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  13. 40 CFR 300.305 - Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Phase II-Preliminary assessment and initiation of action. 300.305 Section 300.305 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... the OSC is informed of their activities in natural resource damage assessment that may affect response...

  14. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  15. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  16. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  17. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  18. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  19. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  20. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  1. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  2. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  3. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  4. Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

  5. Preliminary assessment of beam impact consequences on LHC Collimators

    CERN Document Server

    Cauchi, M; Bertarelli, A; Bruce, R; Carra, F; Dallocchio, A; Deboy, D; Mariani, N; Rossi, A; Lari, L; Mollicone, P; Sammut, N

    2011-01-01

    The correct functioning of the LHC collimation system is crucial to attain the desired LHC luminosity performance. However, the requirements to handle high intensity beams can be demanding. In this respect, the robustness of the collimators plays an important role. An accident, which causes the proton beam to hit a collimator, might result in severe beam-induced damage and, in some cases, replacement of the collimator, with consequent downtime for the machine. In this paper, several case studies representing different realistic beam impact scenarios are shown. A preliminary analysis of the thermal response of tertiary collimators to beam impact is presented, from which the most critical cases can be identified. Such work will also help to give an initial insight on the operational constraints of the LHC by taking into account all relevant collimator damage limits.

  6. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  7. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  8. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  9. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  10. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  11. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  12. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  13. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  14. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  15. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  16. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  17. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  18. Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Revision 1. Volume 2. Detailed assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is considering several options for generating electrical power to meet future energy needs. The satellite power system (SPS), one of these options, would collect solar energy through a system of satellites in space and transfer this energy to earth. A reference system has been described that would convert the energy to microwaves and transmit the microwave energy via directive antennas to large receiving/rectifying antennas (rectennas) located on the earth. At the rectennas, the microwave energy would be converted into electricity. The potential environmental impacts of constructing and operating the satellite power system are being assessed as a part of the Department of Energy's SPS Concept Development and Evaluation Program. This report is Revision I of the Preliminary Environmental Assessment for the Satellite Power System published in October 1978. It refines and extends the 1978 assessment and provides a basis for a 1980 revision that will guide and support DOE recommendations regarding future SPS development. This is Volume 2 of two volumes. It contains the technical detail suitable for peer review and integrates information appearing in documents referenced herein. The key environmental issues associated with the SPS concern human health and safety, ecosystems, climate, and electromagnetic systems interactions. In order to address these issues in an organized manner, five tasks are reported: (I) microwave-radiation health and ecological effects; (II) nonmicrowave health and ecological effectss; (III) atmospheric effects; (IV) effects on communication systems due to ionospheric disturbance; and (V) electromagnetic compatibility. (WHK)

  19. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  20. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  1. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  2. Preliminary seismic design cost-benefit assessment of the tuff repository waste-handling facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, C.V.; Abrahamson, N.; Hadjian, A.H.

    1989-02-01

    This report presents a preliminary assessment of the costs and benefits associated with changes in the seismic design basis of waste-handling facilities. The objectives of the study are to understand the capability of the current seismic design of the waste-handling facilities to mitigate seismic hazards, evaluate how different design levels and design measures might be used toward mitigating seismic hazards, assess the costs and benefits of alternative seismic design levels, and develop recommendations for possible modifications to the seismic design basis. This preliminary assessment is based primarily on expert judgment solicited in an interdisciplinary workshop environment. The estimated costs for individual attributes and the assumptions underlying these cost estimates (seismic hazard levels, fragilities, radioactive-release scenarios, etc.) are subject to large uncertainties, which are generally identified but not treated explicitly in this preliminary analysis. The major conclusions of the report do not appear to be very sensitive to these uncertainties. 41 refs., 51 figs., 35 tabs

  3. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  5. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  6. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  7. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  8. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  9. Preliminary assessment report for Kent National Guard Facility (Installation 53065), 24410 Military Road, Kent, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ketels, P.; Aggarwal, P.; Rose, C.M.

    1993-08-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Washington Army National Guard property in Kent, Washington. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment

  10. Assessment of wind turbine seismic risk : existing literature and simple study of tower moment demand.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prowell, Ian (University of California, San Diego, CA); Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01

    Various sources of risk exist for all civil structures, one of which is seismic risk. As structures change in scale, the magnitude of seismic risk changes relative to risk from other sources. This paper presents an introduction to seismic hazard as applied to wind turbine structures. The existing design methods and research regarding seismic risk for wind turbines is then summarized. Finally a preliminary assessment is made based on current guidelines to understand how tower moment demand scales as rated power increases. Potential areas of uncertainty in the application of the current guidelines are summarized.

  11. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  12. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  13. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  14. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  15. Twelve metropolitan carbon footprints. A preliminary comparative global assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Brown, Marilyn A.

    2010-01-01

    A dearth of available data on carbon emissions and comparative analysis between metropolitan areas make it difficult to confirm or refute best practices and policies. To help provide benchmarks and expand our understanding of urban centers and climate change, this article offers a preliminary comparison of the carbon footprints of 12 metropolitan areas. It does this by examining emissions related to vehicles, energy used in buildings, industry, agriculture, and waste. The carbon emissions from these sources - discussed here as the metro area's partial carbon footprint - provide a foundation for identifying the pricing, land use, help metropolitan areas throughout the world respond to climate change. The article begins by exploring a sample of the existing literature on urban morphology and climate change and explaining the methodology used to calculate each area's carbon footprint. The article then depicts the specific carbon footprints for Beijing, Jakarta, London, Los Angeles, Manila, Mexico City, New Delhi, New York, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Singapore, and Tokyo and compares these to respective national averages. It concludes by offering suggestions for how city planners and policymakers can reduce the carbon footprint of these and possibly other large urban areas. (author)

  16. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  17. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  18. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  19. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  20. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  1. Music therapy assessment in school settings: a preliminary investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, B L; Smith, D S

    2000-01-01

    The present investigation was undertaken in response to music therapists working in school settings for information relating to the availability of music therapy assessments and the feasibility of standardizing an assessment instrument for music therapists to use in school settings. Five research questions were identified, and the music therapy literature was surveyed to compile responses to those questions. Three different online data bases (ERIC, PsycINFO, and Article 1st) were used, covering articles published between 1980 and 1997. Individual hand searches were done of the Arts in Psychotherapy, Journal of Music Therapy, Journal of Research in Music Education, Journal of the International Association of Music for the Handicapped, Music Therapy and Music Therapy Perspectives. The questions and responses were as follows: 1. Which music-based assessment tools are being used with children with disabilities? Little commonality in assessment tools being used by music therapists and researchers was discovered. Of the total 41 studies, 20 (49%) reported using a "named" or "titled" assessment tool, and in the remaining 51% of studies, the authors reported using an untitled, and usually experimenter-designed, original assessment tool. 2. Have certain assessments been used in more than one study? Very limited replication of existing assessments was found. Of the 16 "named" assessments, only 3 were found to be used in more than one research study. 3. Are the actual assessments published along with the articles describing their use? Only 3 of the 20 studies using named assessments were published along with the journal article. Of the remaining 21 studies using original, experimenter-designed assessment tools, only 6 (28%) had the assessment instrument published with the article. 4. What is the primary purpose for using the assessment? Six primary purposes emerged from the review of the literature: to compare with data obtained from other assessment measures or from other

  2. Risk assessment of CST-7 proposed waste treatment and storage facilities Volume I: Limited-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of proposed CST-7 waste treatment ampersand storage facilities. Volume II: Preliminary hazards analysis of proposed CST-7 waste storage ampersand treatment facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasser, K.

    1994-06-01

    In FY 1993, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Waste Management Group [CST-7 (formerly EM-7)] requested the Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group [TSA-11 (formerly N-6)] to conduct a study of the hazards associated with several CST-7 facilities. Among these facilities are the Hazardous Waste Treatment Facility (HWTF), the HWTF Drum Storage Building (DSB), and the Mixed Waste Receiving and Storage Facility (MWRSF), which are proposed for construction beginning in 1996. These facilities are needed to upgrade the Laboratory's storage capability for hazardous and mixed wastes and to provide treatment capabilities for wastes in cases where offsite treatment is not available or desirable. These facilities will assist Los Alamos in complying with federal and state requlations

  3. Risk assessment of CST-7 proposed waste treatment and storage facilities Volume I: Limited-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of proposed CST-7 waste treatment & storage facilities. Volume II: Preliminary hazards analysis of proposed CST-7 waste storage & treatment facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasser, K.

    1994-06-01

    In FY 1993, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Waste Management Group [CST-7 (formerly EM-7)] requested the Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group [TSA-11 (formerly N-6)] to conduct a study of the hazards associated with several CST-7 facilities. Among these facilities are the Hazardous Waste Treatment Facility (HWTF), the HWTF Drum Storage Building (DSB), and the Mixed Waste Receiving and Storage Facility (MWRSF), which are proposed for construction beginning in 1996. These facilities are needed to upgrade the Laboratory`s storage capability for hazardous and mixed wastes and to provide treatment capabilities for wastes in cases where offsite treatment is not available or desirable. These facilities will assist Los Alamos in complying with federal and state requlations.

  4. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  5. Knowledge loss risk assessment in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti, Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostol, Minodora; Constantin, Marin; Balaceanu, Victoria

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a method developed in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti for knowledge loss risk assessment in nuclear sector, in order to obtain a risk map at departmental and organizational level, by analyzing each position/people. The method starts from the classical method for knowledge loss risk assessment but takes into account the INR characteristics, the particularities of Romanian nuclear market and the difficulties of the classical method to estimate correctly the risk at the job level. A short description of the classical method of knowledge loss risk assessment, the improved method by introducing five new parameters for risk factor of vacant job are presented, how this last method has been applied in some departments from INR Pitesti and the preliminary risk matrix for knowledge loss at organization level is discussed. (authors)

  6. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  7. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  8. Preliminary investigation on reliability assessment of passive safety system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Changfan; Kuang Bo

    2012-01-01

    The reliability evaluation of passive safety system plays an important part in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plant applying passive safety design, which depends quantitatively on reliabilities of passive safety system. According to the object of reliability assessment of passive safety system, relevant parameters are identified. Then passive system behavior during accident scenarios are studied. A practical example of this method is given for the case of reliability assessment of AP1000 passive heat removal system in loss of normal feedwater accident. Key and design parameters of PRHRS are identified and functional failure criteria are established. Parameter combinations acquired by Latin hyper~ cube sampling (LHS) in possible parametric ranges are input and calculations of uncertainty propagation through RELAP5/MOD3 code are carried out. Based on the calculations, sensitivity assessment on PRHRS functional criteria and reliability evaluation of the system are presented, which might provide further PSA with PRHR system reliability. (authors)

  9. Preliminary Chemical and Biological Assessment of Ogbe Creek ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    The study was aimed at assessing the quality of water from the Ogbe Creek ... indicated the impact of the perturbational stress on the organisms inhabiting the creek. ... experiences seasonal flooding which introduces a lot of detritus and ...

  10. Preliminary Assessment of Heavy Metal Pollution of Opa Reservoir, Ile

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    big timmy

    Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Nigeria, with a view to assessing its pollution level. ... Heavy metals are not biodegradable, but are assimilated .... samples were filtered (with Whatman filter paper. No 42) and ..... acidity,Water, Air Soil Pollut.

  11. Concepts in critical thinking applied to caries risk assessment in dental education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman-Armstrong, Sandra; Warren, John J; Cunningham-Ford, Marsha A; von Bergmann, HsingChi; Johnsen, David C

    2014-06-01

    Much progress has been made in the science of caries risk assessment and ways to analyze caries risk, yet dental education has seen little movement toward the development of frameworks to guide learning and assess critical thinking in caries risk assessment. In the absence of previous proactive implementation of a learning framework that takes the knowledge of caries risk and critically applies it to the patient with the succinctness demanded in the clinical setting, the purpose of this study was to develop a model learning framework that combines the science of caries risk assessment with principles of critical thinking from the education literature. This article also describes the implementation of that model at one dental school and presents some preliminary assessment data.

  12. Assessing the Risk of Sarcopenia in the Elderly: The Mini Sarcopenia Risk Assessment (MSRA) Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, A P; Micciolo, R; Rubele, S; Fantin, F; Caliari, C; Zoico, E; Mazzali, G; Ferrari, E; Volpato, S; Zamboni, M

    2017-01-01

    to validate the MSRA questionnaire proposed as prescreening tool for sarcopenia, in a population of community-dwelling elderly subjects. observational study. community dwelling elderly subjects. 274 community dwelling elderly subjects, 177 women and 97 men, aged 66-78 years. Based on EWGSOP diagnostic criteria subjects were classified as sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic. The Mini Sarcopenia Risk Assessment (MSRA) questionnaire, is composed of seven questions and investigates anamnestic and nutritional characteristics related to risk of sarcopenia onset (age, protein and dairy products consumption, number of meals per day, physical activity level, number of hospitalizations and weight loss in the last year). 33.5% of the study population, were classified as sarcopenic. With the 7-item MSRA score, subjects with a score of 30 or less, had a 4-fold greater risk of being sarcopenic than subjects with a score higher than 30 (OR:4.20;95% CI:2.26-8.06); area under the ROC curve was 0.786 (95% CI:0.725-0.847). In a logistic regression, considering as dependent variable the probability of being sarcopenic, and as independent variables the 7 items of the questionnaire, two items (number of meals and milk and dairy products consumption) showed non-significant diagnostic power. A 5-item score was then derived and the area under the ROC curve was 0.789 (95% IC:0.728-0.851). Taking into account the cost of false positive and false negative costs and the prevalence of sarcopenia, the "optimal" threshold of the original MSRA score (based on 7 items) is 30, with a sensitivity of 0.804 and a specificity of 0.505, while the "optimal" threshold of the MSRA score based on 5 items, is 45, with a sensitivity of 0.804 and a specificity of 0.604. this preliminary study shows that the MSRA questionnaire is predictive of sarcopenia and can be suggested as prescreening instrument to detect this condition. The use of a short form of the MSRA questionnaire improves the capacity to identify

  13. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  14. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  15. Risk of surgical site infection in paediatric herniotomies without any prophylactic antibiotics: A preliminary experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhananjay Vaze

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Different studies underline the use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis in clean surgeries like herniotomy and inguinal orchiopexy. But, the meta-analyses do not recommend nor discard the use of prophylactic pre-operative antibiotics. The scarcity of controlled clinical trials in paediatric population further vitiates the matter. This study assessed the difference in the rate of early post-operative wound infection cases in children who received single dose of pre-operative antibiotics and children who did not receive antibiotics after inguinal herniotomy and orchiopexy. Materials and Methods: This randomised prospective study was conducted in Paediatric Surgery department of PGIMER Chandigarh. Out of 251 patients, 112 patients were randomised to the case group and 139 were ascribed to the control group. The patients in control group were given a standard regimen of single dose of intravenous antibiotic at the time of induction followed by 3-4 days of oral antibiotic. Case group patients underwent the surgical procedure in similar manner with no antibiotic either at the time of induction or post-operatively. Results: The incidence of surgical site infection in case group was 3.73 % and that in control group was 2.22%. The observed difference in the incidence of surgical site infection was statistically insignificant (P value = 0.7027. The overall infection rate in case and control group was 2.89%. Conclusions: Our preliminary experience suggests that there is no statistically significant difference in the proportion of early post-operative wound infection between the patients who received single dose of pre-operative antibiotics and the patients who received no antibiotics after inguinal herniotomy and orchiopexy. The risk of surgical site infection in paediatric heriotomies does not increase even if the child′s weight is less than his/her expected weight for age.

  16. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  17. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  18. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  19. Preliminary assessment of potential underground stability (wedge and spalling) at Forsmark, Simpevarp and Laxemar sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Derek [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton (Canada). Geotechnical Engineering

    2005-12-15

    In SKB's Underground Design Premises the objective in the early design phase is to estimate if there is sufficient space for the repository at a site. One of the conditions that could limit the space available is stability of the underground openings, i.e., deposition tunnels and deposition boreholes. The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary assessment of the potential for wedge instability and spalling that may be encountered at the Forsmark, Simpevarp and Laxemar sites based on information from the site investigations program up to July 30, 2004. The rock mass spalling strength was defined using the in-situ results from SKB's Aespoe Pillar Stability Experiment and AECL's Mine-by Experiment. These experiments suggest that the rock mass spalling strength for crystalline rocks can be estimated as 0.57 of the mean laboratory uniaxial compressive strength. A probability-based methodology utilizing this in-situ rock mass spalling strength has been developed for assessing the risk for spalling in a repository at the Forsmark, Simpevarp and Laxemar sites. The in-situ stresses and the uniaxial compressive strength data from these sites were used as the bases for the analyses. Preliminary findings from all sites suggest that, generally, the risk for spalling increases as the depth of the repository increases, simply because the stress magnitudes increase with depth. The depth at which the risk for spalling is significant, depends on the individual sites which are discussed below. The greatest uncertainty in the spalling analyses for Forsmark is related to the uncertainty in the horizontal stress magnitudes and associated stress gradients with depth. The confidence in these analyses can only be increased by increasing the confidence in the stress and geology model for the site. From the analyses completed it appears that spalling in the deposition tunnels can be controlled by orienting the tunnels approximately parallel to the maximum horizontal

  20. Assessment of Nano Cellulose from Peach Palm Residue as Potential Food Additive: Part II: Preliminary Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Dayanne Regina Mendes; Mendonça, Márcia Helena; Helm, Cristiane Vieira; Magalhães, Washington L E; de Muniz, Graciela Ines Bonzon; Kestur, Satyanarayana G

    2015-09-01

    High consumption of dietary fibers in the diet is related to the reduction of the risk of non-transmitting of chronic diseases, prevention of the constipation etc. Rich diets in dietary fibers promote beneficial effects for the metabolism. Considering the above and recognizing the multifaceted advantages of nano materials, there have been many attempts in recent times to use the nano materials in the food sector including as food additive. However, whenever new product for human and animal consumption is developed, it has to be tested for their effectiveness regarding improvement in the health of consumers, safety aspects and side effects. However, before it is tried with human beings, normally such materials would be assessed through biological tests on a living organism to understand its effect on health condition of the consumer. Accordingly, based on the authors' finding reported in a previous paper, this paper presents body weight, biochemical (glucose, cholesterol and lipid profile in blood, analysis of feces) and histological tests carried out with biomass based cellulose nano fibrils prepared by the authors for its possible use as food additive. Preliminary results of the study with mice have clearly brought out potential of these fibers for the said purpose.

  1. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  2. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  3. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  4. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  5. IRIS Toxicological Review of Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In March 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for HBCD to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in c...

  6. PRELIMINARY EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FINDINGS FROM THE TAMPA ASTHMATIC CHILDREN'S STUDY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Tampa Asthmatic Children's Study (TACS) was a pilot study that focused on developing and evaluating air pollution exposure assessment methods and participant recruiting tools. The four-week study was performed in October and November, 2003. The study involved repeated daily...

  7. Biocides Steering Group on human exposure assessment: A preliminary report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hemmen, J.J. van

    1999-01-01

    In a project granted by DG XI of the European Commission, it is attempted to collate experimental and theoretical data on human (workers and consumers) exposure assessment to biocidal products, and to outline the methodology for sampling and measurement. On the basis of the available evidence,

  8. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Preliminary Performance Assessment for Disposal of APT and CLWR/TEF Wastes at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhite, E.L.

    1998-01-01

    This section provides the descriptive information for understanding the analyses presented in this preliminary performance assessment. This section addresses the approach taken in the PA, provides a general description of the Savannah River Site E-Area low-level waste facility, and discusses the performance criteria used for evaluating performance

  10. 78 FR 14540 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Volatilization Assessment; Extension of Comment Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-06

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OPP-2008-0850; FRL-9380-7] Chlorpyrifos Registration... Federal Register issue of February 6, 2013, concerning Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary... volatilization assessment for the registration review of chlorpyrifos. EPA received requests from several...

  11. A preliminary assessment of the true morels (Morchella) in Newfoundland and Labrador

    Science.gov (United States)

    A preliminary assessment of true morels (Morchella) from Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) was obtained by using DNA sequence data from portions of three genes to identify 20 collections from Newfoundland and one from a remote location in Labrador. To place this work in a broader context, data on 25 co...

  12. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  13. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  14. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  15. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  16. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  17. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  18. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  19. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  20. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  1. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  2. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  3. Applying the Msharpp Method in Risk Assessment for the Water Supply Critical Infrastructure Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badea Dorel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights a manner to assess risks for an important sector of critical infrastructure, that of water supply, frequently regulated in international legal systems. We took into consideration the fact that risk is a problem related to the processes of decision making under conditions of uncertainty in most cases, so that by this approach we bring to the attention of critical infrastructure managers, drawing on their experience, a simple method that can be considered in a preliminary stage of risk assessment specific to water supply.

  4. Preliminary Options Assessment of Versatile Irradiation Test Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sen, Ramazan Sonat [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this report is to summarize the work undertaken at INL from April 2016 to January 2017 and aimed at analyzing some options for designing and building a versatile test reactor; the scope of work was agreed upon with DOE-NE. Section 2 presents some results related to KNK II and PRISM Mod A. Section 3 presents some alternatives to the VCTR presented in [ ] as well as a neutronic parametric study to assess the minimum power requirement needed for a 235U metal fueled fast test reactor capable to generate a fast (>100 keV) flux of 4.0 x 1015 n /cm2-s at the test location. Section 4 presents some results regarding a fundamental characteristic of test reactors, namely displacement per atom (dpa) in test samples. Section 5 presents the INL assessment of the ANL fast test reactor design FASTER. Section 6 presents a summary.

  5. Preliminary assessment of factors influencing riverine fish communities in Massachusetts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, David S.; Richards, Todd A.; Brandt, Sara L.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation (MDCR), Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MDEP), and the Massachusetts Department of Fish and Game (MDFG), conducted a preliminary investigation of fish communities in small- to medium-sized Massachusetts streams. The objective of this investigation was to determine relations between fish-community characteristics and anthropogenic alteration, including flow alteration and impervious cover, relative to the effect of physical basin and land-cover (environmental) characteristics. Fish data were obtained for 756 fish-sampling sites from the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife fish-community database. A review of the literature was used to select a set of fish metrics responsive to flow alteration. Fish metrics tested include two fish-community metrics (fluvial-fish relative abundance and fluvial-fish species richness), and five indicator species metrics (relative abundance of brook trout, blacknose dace, fallfish, white sucker, and redfin pickerel). Streamflows were simulated for each fish-sampling site using the Sustainable Yield Estimator application (SYE). Daily streamflows and the SYE water-use database were used to determine a set of indicators of flow alteration, including percent alteration of August median flow, water-use intensity, and withdrawal and return-flow fraction. The contributing areas to the fish-sampling sites were delineated and used with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine a set of environmental characteristics, including elevation, basin slope, percent sand and gravel, percent wetland, and percent open water, and a set of anthropogenic-alteration variables, including impervious cover and dam density. Two analytical techniques, quantile regression and generalized linear modeling, were applied to determine the association between fish-response variables and the selected environmental and

  6. Preliminary assessment report for National Guard Training Center, Georgia Army National Guard, Fort Stewart, Georgia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Georgia Army National Guard (GAARNG) facility near Hinesville, Georgia, known as the National Guard Training Center (NGTC). Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a priority basis for completing corrective actions (where necessary) in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining previous site activities, types and quantities of hazardous substances utilized, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment. The scope of this assessment is limited to the facilities and past activities contained within the NGTC. Preliminary assessment site score sheet information is also provided for the NGTC. However, this assessment report is intended to be read in conjunction with a previous IRP assessment of Fort Stewart completed in 1992 (USATHAMA 1992) and to provide comprehensive information on the NGTC area for incorporation with information contained in that previous assessment for the entirety of Fort Stewart

  7. A Preliminary Investigation of Dynamic Assessment With Native American Kindergartners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ukrainetz, Teresa A; Harpell, Stacey; Walsh, Chandra; Coyle, Catherine

    2000-04-01

    This study examined dynamic assessment as a lessbiased evaluation procedure for assessing the languagelearning ability of Native American children. Twenty-three Arapahoe/Shoshone kindergartners were identified as stronger (n = 15) or weaker (n = 8) language learners through teacher report and examiner classroom observation. Through a test-teach-test protocol, participants were briefly taught the principles of categorization. Participant responses to learning were measured in terms of an index of modifiability and post-test categorization scores. The modifiability index, determined during the teaching phase, was a combined score reflecting the child's learning strategies, such as ability to attend, plan, and self-regulate, and the child's responses to the learning situation. Post-test scores consisted of performance on expressive and receptive subtests from a standardized categorization test after partialling out pretest score differences. Effect sizes and confidence intervals were also determined. Group and individual results indicated that modifiability and post-test scores were significantly greater for stronger than for weaker language learners. The response to modifiability components was a better discriminator than was the learner strategies components. These results provide support for the further development of dynamic assessment as a valid measure of language learning ability in minority children.

  8. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  9. Preliminary assessment of the controlled release of radionuclides from waste packages containing borosilicate waste glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, D.M.; McGrail, B.P.; Apted, M.J.; Engle, D.W.; Eslinger, P.W.

    1990-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary assessment of the release-rate for an engineered barriers subsystem (EBS) containing waste packages of defense high-level waste borosilicate glass at geochemical and hydrological conditions similar to the those at Yucca Mountain. The relationship between the proposed Waste Acceptance Preliminary Specifications (WAPS) test of glass- dissolution rate and compliance with the NRC's release-rate criterion is also evaluated. Calculations are reported for three hierarchical levels: EBS analysis, waste-package analysis, and waste-glass analysis. The following conclusions identify those factors that most acutely affect the magnitude of, or uncertainty in, release-rate performance

  10. Bitumen to refined products and petrochemicals : a preliminary assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crandall, G.

    2004-01-01

    Purvin and Gertz is an energy consulting firm that provides advise to the energy sector. A review of western Canadian crude oil supply suggests that oil sands production will surpass declining conventional production. Oil sands supply includes synthetic crude oil (SCO), bitumen and diluent. It is expected that oil sands will increase from 42 per cent of western supply in 2002 to 78 per cent in 2015. This presentation reviewed the potential of Alberta's oil sands and presented a recent study of refined products and petrochemicals from bitumen. Upgrading, refining and petrochemical case studies were presented. In particular, the author examined if a Canadian oil sands upgrading project with high capital costs can be competitive with competing projects in the United States and internationally. In addition to supply and demand issues, the presentation examined infrastructure capability and market potential in the United States. The economic potential and risks of preferred business cases compared to upgrading to SCO were also evaluated. tabs., figs

  11. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  12. Screening for Malnutrition in Community Dwelling Older Japanese: Preliminary Development and Evaluation of the Japanese Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Htun, N C; Ishikawa-Takata, K; Kuroda, A; Tanaka, T; Kikutani, T; Obuchi, S P; Hirano, H; Iijima, K

    2016-02-01

    Early and effective screening for age-related malnutrition is an essential part of providing optimal nutritional care to older populations. This study was performed to evaluate the adaptation of the original SCREEN II questionnaire (Seniors in the Community: Risk Evaluation for Eating and Nutrition, version II) for use in Japan by examining its measurement properties and ability to predict nutritional risk and sarcopenia in community-dwelling older Japanese people. The ultimate objective of this preliminary validation study is to develop a license granted full Japanese version of the SCREEN II. The measurement properties and predictive validity of the NRST were examined in this cross-sectional study of 1921 community-dwelling older Japanese people. Assessments included medical history, and anthropometric and serum albumin measurements. Questions on dietary habits that corresponded to the original SCREEN II were applied to Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST) scoring system. Nutritional risk was assessed by the Geriatric Nutrition Risk Index (GNRI) and the short form of the Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF). Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to the criteria of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People. The nutritional risk prevalences determined by the GNRI and MNA-SF were 5.6% and 34.7%, respectively. The prevalence of sarcopenia was 13.3%. Mean NRST scores were significantly lower in the nutritionally at-risk than in the well-nourished groups. Concurrent validity analysis showed significant correlations between NRST scores and both nutritional risk parameters (GNRI or MNA-SF) and sarcopenia. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of NRST for the prediction of nutritional risk were 0.635 and 0.584 as assessed by GNRI and MNA-SF, respectively. AUCs for the prediction of sarcopenia were 0.602 (NRST), 0.655 (age-integrated NRST), and 0.676 (age and BMI-integrated NRST). These results indicate that the NRST is a

  13. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  14. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  15. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  16. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  18. Nuclear waste repository in basalt: preliminary socioeconomic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cluett, C.; Bolton, P.A.; Malhotra, S.; McStay, J.R.; Slingsby, J.A.

    1984-06-01

    This report was prepared as a part of the continuing site characterization activities for a proposed nuclear waste repository in basalt (NWRB) to be located on the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. The purpose of this study is to assess the social and economic impacts that could be caused by the construction and operation of the proposed NWRB facility. The specific objectives of this study are to describe historical socioeconomic trends in the study area, to describe current conditions, to project future baseline conditions without the NWRB, to project potential impacts due to the proposed NWRB under two alternative regional development scenarios and assess their significance, and to suggest an overall impact management and mitigation strategy. A closely related objective is to assemble a comprehensive socioeconomic data base that can be easily updated for future analyses. This study examines employment, labor supply, population change, housing, local transportation, revenues, and expenditures for public services. This report documents the marked demographic and economic decline that has occurred in the study area since 1981 and concludes that future baseline growth will resume at a relatively slower pace after further expected declines have been experienced through about 1985. The projected socioeconomic impacts of the NWRB development are assessed under two alternative baseline scenarios and are not expected to be significant in either case. With careful planning and attention to impact mitigation, including public participation and interaction with local and regional planning agencies, potential socioeconomic impacts can be anticipated and managed effectively. Recommendations are made for providing frequent updating of the data base and for improving the analysis of socioeconomic impacts. 68 references, 19 figures, 38 tables

  19. Preliminary assessment of potential CDM early start projects in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S.; Sathaye, J.; Lehman, B.; Schumacher, K.; van Vliet, O.; Moreira, J.R.

    2000-11-01

    The Brazil/US Aspen Global Forum on Climate Change Policies and Programs has facilitated a dialogue between key Brazil and US public and private sector leaders on the subject of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). With support from the US government, a cooperative effort between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Sao Paulo conducted an assessment of a number of projects put forth by Brazilian sponsors. Initially, we gathered information and conducted a screening assessment for ten projects in the energy sector and six projects in the forestry sector. Some of the projects appeared to offer greater potential to be attractive for CDM, or had better information available. We then conducted a more detailed assessment of 12 of these projects, and two other projects that were submitted after the initial screening. An important goal was to assess the potential impact of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) on the financial performance of projects. With the exception of the two forestry-based fuel displacement projects, the impact of CERs on the internal rate of return (IRR) is fairly small. This is true for both the projects that displace grid electricity and those that displace local (diesel-based) electricity production. The relative effect of CERs is greater for projects whose IRR without CERs is low. CERs have a substantial effect on the IRR of the two short-rotation forestry energy substitution projects. One reason is that the biofuel displaces coke and oil, both of which are carbon-intensive. Another factor is that the product of these projects (charcoal and woodfuel, respectively) is relatively low value, so the revenue from carbon credits has a strong relative impact. CERs also have a substantial effect on the NPV of the carbon sequestration projects. Financial and other barriers pose a challenge for implementation of most of the projects. In most cases, the sponsor lacks sufficient capital, and loans are available only at high interest

  20. A literature-based preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

    1990-04-01

    The objectives of this study were to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitudes of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management system. The study, which was completed prior to passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system envisioned by the DOE in the 1985 ''Mission Plant for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program.'' As such, there may be statements in this paper that are not consistent with current DOE positions. The scope of this paper includes the repository, the integral Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility, and the transportation system that supports the repository and the MRS facility. Based on the results of this analysis, it is concluded that the radiological risks in the waste management system are small relative to nonradiological risks and relative to the risks of exposure to natural background radiation. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs