WorldWideScience

Sample records for preliminary reliability prediction

  1. Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

  2. Reliability tasks from prediction to field use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guyot, Christian.

    1975-01-01

    This tutorial paper is part of a series intended to sensitive on reliability prolems. Reliability probabilistic concept, is an important parameter of availability. Reliability prediction is an estimation process for evaluating design progress. It is only by the application of a reliability program that reliability objectives can be attained through the different stages of work: conception, fabrication, field use. The user is mainly interested in operational reliability. Indication are given on the support and the treatment of data in the case of electronic equipment at C.E.A. Reliability engineering requires a special state of mind which must be formed and developed in a company in the same way as it may be done for example for safety [fr

  3. Verification, validation, and reliability of predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1987-04-01

    The objective of predicting long-term performance should be to make reliable determinations of whether the prediction falls within the criteria for acceptable performance. Establishing reliable predictions of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis on valid theories to predict performance. The validation process must establish the validity of the theory, the parameters used in applying the theory, the arithmetic of calculations, and the interpretation of results; but validation of such performance predictions is not possible unless there are clear criteria for acceptable performance. Validation programs should emphasize identification of the substantive issues of prediction that need to be resolved. Examples relevant to waste package performance are predicting the life of waste containers and the time distribution of container failures, establishing the criteria for defining container failure, validating theories for time-dependent waste dissolution that depend on details of the repository environment, and determining the extent of congruent dissolution of radionuclides in the UO 2 matrix of spent fuel. Prediction and validation should go hand in hand and should be done and reviewed frequently, as essential tools for the programs to design and develop repositories. 29 refs

  4. Reliability and lifetime predictions of SLC klystrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, M.A.; Callin, R.S.; Fowkes, W.R.; Lee, T.G.; Vlieks, A.E.

    1989-01-01

    The energy upgrade of SLAC, with the first of the new 67 MW SLAC Linear Collider (SLC) klystrons, began over four years ago. Today there are over 200 of these klystrons in operation. As a result, there is a wealth of klystron performance and failure information that enables reasonable predictions to be made on life expectancy and reliability. Data from initial tests, follow-up tests and daily operation monitoring on the accelerator is stored for analysis. Presented here are life expectancy predictions with particular emphasis on cathode life. Also, based on this data, the authors will discuss some of the principal modes of failure. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  5. Reliability and lifetime predictions of SLC klystrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, M.A.; Callin, R.S.; Fowkes, W.R.; Lee, T.G.; Vlieks, A.E.

    1989-03-01

    The energy upgrade of SLAC, with the first of the new 67 MW SLAC Linear Collider (SLC) klystrons, began over four years ago. Today there are over 200 of these klystrons in operation. As a result, there is a wealth klystron performance and failure information that enables reasonable predictions to be made on life expectancy and reliability. Data from initial tests, follow-up tests and daily operation monitoring on the accelerator is stores for analysis. Presented here are life expectancy predictions with particular emphasis on cathode life. Also, based on this data, we will discuss some of the principal modes of failure. 3 refs., 2 figs

  6. Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    1995-01-01

    A number of software reliability models have been developed to estimate and to predict software reliability. However, there are no established standard models to quantify software reliability. Most models estimate the quality of software in reliability figures such as remaining faults, failure rate, or mean time to next failure at the testing phase, and they consider them ultimate indicators of software reliability. Experience shows that there is a large gap between predicted reliability during development and reliability measured during operation, which means that predicted reliability, or so-called test reliability, is not operational reliability. Customers prefer operational reliability to test reliability. In this study, we propose a method that predicts operational reliability rather than test reliability by introducing the testing environment factor that quantifies the changes in environments

  7. Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

  8. Final report on reliability and lifetime prediction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillen, Kenneth T; Wise, Jonathan; Jones, Gary D.; Causa, Al G.; Terrill, Edward R.; Borowczak, Marc

    2012-12-01

    This document highlights the important results obtained from the subtask of the Goodyear CRADA devoted to better understanding reliability of tires and to developing better lifetime prediction methods. The overall objective was to establish the chemical and physical basis for the degradation of tires using standard as well as unique models and experimental techniques. Of particular interest was the potential application of our unique modulus profiling apparatus for assessing tire properties and for following tire degradation. During the course of this complex investigation, extensive relevant information was generated, including experimental results, data analyses and development of models and instruments. Detailed descriptions of the findings are included in this report.

  9. Software reliability prediction using SPN | Abbasabadee | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Software reliability prediction using SPN. ... In this research for computation of software reliability, component reliability model based on SPN would be proposed. An isomorphic markov ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  10. Can shoulder dystocia be reliably predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, Jodie M; Catcheside, Britt; Scheil, Wendy

    2012-06-01

    To evaluate factors reported to increase the risk of shoulder dystocia, and to evaluate their predictive value at a population level. The South Australian Pregnancy Outcome Unit's population database from 2005 to 2010 was accessed to determine the occurrence of shoulder dystocia in addition to reported risk factors, including age, parity, self-reported ethnicity, presence of diabetes and infant birth weight. Odds ratios (and 95% confidence interval) of shoulder dystocia was calculated for each risk factor, which were then incorporated into a logistic regression model. Test characteristics for each variable in predicting shoulder dystocia were calculated. As a proportion of all births, the reported rate of shoulder dystocia increased significantly from 0.95% in 2005 to 1.38% in 2010 (P = 0.0002). Using a logistic regression model, induction of labour and infant birth weight greater than both 4000 and 4500 g were identified as significant independent predictors of shoulder dystocia. The value of risk factors alone and when incorporated into the logistic regression model was poorly predictive of the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. While there are a number of factors associated with an increased risk of shoulder dystocia, none are of sufficient sensitivity or positive predictive value to allow their use clinically to reliably and accurately identify the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. © 2012 The Authors ANZJOG © 2012 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  11. Using VIIRS Day/Night Band to Measure Electricity Supply Reliability: Preliminary Results from Maharashtra, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L. Mann

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Unreliable electricity supplies are common in developing countries and impose large socio-economic costs, yet precise information on electricity reliability is typically unavailable. This paper presents preliminary results from a machine-learning approach for using satellite imagery of nighttime lights to develop estimates of electricity reliability for western India at a finer spatial scale. We use data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS onboard the Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP satellite together with newly-available data from networked household voltage meters. Our results point to the possibilities of this approach as well as areas for refinement. With currently available training data, we find a limited ability to detect individual outages identified by household-level measurements of electricity voltage. This is likely due to the relatively small number of individual outages observed in our preliminary data. However, we find that the approach can estimate electricity reliability rates for individual locations fairly well, with the predicted versus actual regression yielding an R2 > 0.5. We also find that, despite the after midnight overpass time of the SNPP satellite, the reliability estimates derived are representative of daytime reliability.

  12. Program integration of predictive maintenance with reliability centered maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strong, D.K. Jr; Wray, D.M.

    1990-01-01

    This paper addresses improving the safety and reliability of power plants in a cost-effective manner by integrating the recently developed reliability centered maintenance techniques with the traditional predictive maintenance techniques of nuclear power plants. The topics of the paper include a description of reliability centered maintenance (RCM), enhancing RCM with predictive maintenance, predictive maintenance programs, condition monitoring techniques, performance test techniques, the mid-Atlantic Reliability Centered Maintenance Users Group, test guides and the benefits of shared guide development

  13. Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    1995-01-01

    For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this study to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results are close to the actual data

  14. Preliminary investigation on reliability assessment of passive safety system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Changfan; Kuang Bo

    2012-01-01

    The reliability evaluation of passive safety system plays an important part in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plant applying passive safety design, which depends quantitatively on reliabilities of passive safety system. According to the object of reliability assessment of passive safety system, relevant parameters are identified. Then passive system behavior during accident scenarios are studied. A practical example of this method is given for the case of reliability assessment of AP1000 passive heat removal system in loss of normal feedwater accident. Key and design parameters of PRHRS are identified and functional failure criteria are established. Parameter combinations acquired by Latin hyper~ cube sampling (LHS) in possible parametric ranges are input and calculations of uncertainty propagation through RELAP5/MOD3 code are carried out. Based on the calculations, sensitivity assessment on PRHRS functional criteria and reliability evaluation of the system are presented, which might provide further PSA with PRHR system reliability. (authors)

  15. Prediction of safety critical software operational reliability from test reliability using testing environment factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    1999-01-01

    It has been a critical issue to predict the safety critical software reliability in nuclear engineering area. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there have been many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is however on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, from testing to operation, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are developed in this paper and used to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data in testing phase. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results show that the proposed method can estimate the operational reliability accurately. (Author). 14 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  16. Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1985-08-01

    Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Conformal prediction for reliable machine learning theory, adaptations and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Balasubramanian, Vineeth; Vovk, Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detecti

  18. Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung

    1995-02-01

    Software reliability is especially important to customers these days. The need to quantify software reliability of safety-critical systems has been received very special attention and the reliability is rated as one of software's most important attributes. Since the software is an intellectual product of human activity and since it is logically complex, the failures are inevitable. No standard models have been established to prove the correctness and to estimate the reliability of software systems by analysis and/or testing. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factor comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this work to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factor Test reliability can also be estimated with this approach without any model change. The application results are close to the actual data. The approach used in this thesis is expected to be applicable to ultra high reliable software systems that are used in nuclear power plants, airplanes, and other safety-critical applications

  19. Prediction of Software Reliability using Bio Inspired Soft Computing Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diwaker, Chander; Tomar, Pradeep; Poonia, Ramesh C; Singh, Vijander

    2018-04-10

    A lot of models have been made for predicting software reliability. The reliability models are restricted to using particular types of methodologies and restricted number of parameters. There are a number of techniques and methodologies that may be used for reliability prediction. There is need to focus on parameters consideration while estimating reliability. The reliability of a system may increase or decreases depending on the selection of different parameters used. Thus there is need to identify factors that heavily affecting the reliability of the system. In present days, reusability is mostly used in the various area of research. Reusability is the basis of Component-Based System (CBS). The cost, time and human skill can be saved using Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE) concepts. CBSE metrics may be used to assess those techniques which are more suitable for estimating system reliability. Soft computing is used for small as well as large-scale problems where it is difficult to find accurate results due to uncertainty or randomness. Several possibilities are available to apply soft computing techniques in medicine related problems. Clinical science of medicine using fuzzy-logic, neural network methodology significantly while basic science of medicine using neural-networks-genetic algorithm most frequently and preferably. There is unavoidable interest shown by medical scientists to use the various soft computing methodologies in genetics, physiology, radiology, cardiology and neurology discipline. CBSE boost users to reuse the past and existing software for making new products to provide quality with a saving of time, memory space, and money. This paper focused on assessment of commonly used soft computing technique like Genetic Algorithm (GA), Neural-Network (NN), Fuzzy Logic, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC). This paper presents working of soft computing

  20. Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, S.; Lu, H.; Kolarik, W.J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a technique for predicting system performance reliability in real-time considering multiple failure modes. The technique includes on-line multivariate monitoring and forecasting of selected performance measures and conditional performance reliability estimates. The performance measures across time are treated as a multivariate time series. A state-space approach is used to model the multivariate time series. Recursive forecasting is performed by adopting Kalman filtering. The predicted mean vectors and covariance matrix of performance measures are used for the assessment of system survival/reliability with respect to the conditional performance reliability. The technique and modeling protocol discussed in this paper provide a means to forecast and evaluate the performance of an individual system in a dynamic environment in real-time. The paper also presents an example to demonstrate the technique

  1. Performance reliability prediction for thermal aging based on kalman filtering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Wen Zhenhua; Xue Fei; Zhao Wensheng

    2015-01-01

    The performance reliability of the nuclear power plant main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging was studied by the performance degradation theory. Firstly, through the data obtained from the accelerated thermal aging experiments, the degradation process of the impact strength and fracture toughness of austenitic stainless steel material of the main pipeline was analyzed. The time-varying performance degradation model based on the state space method was built, and the performance trends were predicted by using Kalman filtering. Then, the multi-parameter and real-time performance reliability prediction model for the main pipeline thermal aging was developed by considering the correlation between the impact properties and fracture toughness, and by using the stochastic process theory. Thus, the thermal aging performance reliability and reliability life of the main pipeline with multi-parameter were obtained, which provides the scientific basis for the optimization management of the aging maintenance decision making for nuclear power plant main pipelines. (authors)

  2. Study of redundant Models in reliability prediction of HXMT's HES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jinming; Liu Congzhan; Zhang Zhi; Ji Jianfeng

    2010-01-01

    Two redundant equipment structures of HXMT's HES are proposed firstly, the block backup and dual system cold-redundancy. Then prediction of the reliability is made by using parts count method. Research of comparison and analysis is also performed on the two proposals. A conclusion is drawn that a higher reliability and longer service life could be offered by taking a redundant equipment structure of block backup. (authors)

  3. Reliability and preliminary evidence of validity of a Farsi version of the depression anxiety stress scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayani, Ali Asghar

    2010-08-01

    The internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of the Farsi version of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales were examined, with a sample of 306 undergraduate students (123 men, 183 women) ranging from 18 to 51 years of age (M age = 25.4, SD = 6.1). Participants completed the Satisfaction with Life Scale, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale, and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales. The findings confirmed the preliminary reliabilities and preliminary construct validity of the Farsi translation of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales.

  4. Preliminary Human Reliability Issues in Reviewing SMART PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju; Sheen, Cheol

    2010-01-01

    Human reliability analysis (HRA) identifies the human failure events (HFEs) that can negatively impact normal or emergency plant operations, and systematically estimates probabilities of HFEs using data (when available), models, or expert judgment. In case of newly-conceptualized reactors like SMART (System-integrated Modular Advanced Reactor), HRA results must be provided by first evaluating the applicability of a set of human errors that has been typically applied in PSAs for existing PWRs. Additional human errors should also be identified reflecting its unique design and operational features. The objective of this paper is double-folded: to discuss a direction of HRA used in confirming risk level of SAMRT-type reactors; and to extract preliminarily considerable points or issues for regulatory verification, referred to available safety guides

  5. Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

    2009-01-01

    Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

  6. A method of predicting the reliability of CDM coil insulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kytasty, A.; Ogle, C.; Arrendale, H.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a method of predicting the reliability of the Collider Dipole Magnet (CDM) coil insulation design. The method proposes a probabilistic treatment of electrical test data, stress analysis, material properties variability and loading uncertainties to give the reliability estimate. The approach taken to predict reliability of design related failure modes of the CDM is to form analytical models of the various possible failure modes and their related mechanisms or causes, and then statistically assess the contributions of the various contributing variables. The probability of the failure mode occurring is interpreted as the number of times one would expect certain extreme situations to combine and randomly occur. One of the more complex failure modes of the CDM will be used to illustrate this methodology

  7. System reliability prediction using data from non-identical environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergman, B.; Ringi, M.

    1997-01-01

    Since information changes one's mind and probability assessments reflect one's degree of beliefs, a reliability prediction model should enclose all relevant information. Almost always ignored in existing reliability models is the dependence on component life lengths, induced by a common but unknown environment. Furthermore, existing models seldom permit learning from components' performance in similar systems, under the knowledge of non-identical operating environments. In an earlier paper by the present authors the first type of aspects were taken into account and in this paper that model is generalised so that failure data generated from several similar systems in non-identical environments may be used for the prediction of any similar system in its specific environment

  8. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  9. Towards more accurate and reliable predictions for nuclear applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goriely, S.

    2015-01-01

    The need for nuclear data far from the valley of stability, for applications such as nuclear astrophysics or future nuclear facilities, challenges the robustness as well as the predictive power of present nuclear models. Most of the nuclear data evaluation and prediction are still performed on the basis of phenomenological nuclear models. For the last decades, important progress has been achieved in fundamental nuclear physics, making it now feasible to use more reliable, but also more complex microscopic or semi-microscopic models in the evaluation and prediction of nuclear data for practical applications. In the present contribution, the reliability and accuracy of recent nuclear theories are discussed for most of the relevant quantities needed to estimate reaction cross sections and beta-decay rates, namely nuclear masses, nuclear level densities, gamma-ray strength, fission properties and beta-strength functions. It is shown that nowadays, mean-field models can be tuned at the same level of accuracy as the phenomenological models, renormalized on experimental data if needed, and therefore can replace the phenomenogical inputs in the prediction of nuclear data. While fundamental nuclear physicists keep on improving state-of-the-art models, e.g. within the shell model or ab initio models, nuclear applications could make use of their most recent results as quantitative constraints or guides to improve the predictions in energy or mass domain that will remain inaccessible experimentally. (orig.)

  10. Reliability of the Filipino version of the Parent Satisfaction Scale: A preliminary study

    OpenAIRE

    Palad, Yves Y.; Madriaga, Gilbert O.

    2014-01-01

    Parent satisfaction is vital in improving the delivery of paediatric health care. However, there are no linguistically appropriate instruments that measure parent satisfaction among Filipino parents of children receiving occupational therapy, physical therapy, and speech pathology services. This study aimed to provide preliminary information about the reliability of the Filipino version of the Parent Satisfaction Scale (F-PSS). Research procedures included forward- and backward-translation of...

  11. Developing Predictive Maintenance Expertise to Improve Plant Equipment Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wurzbach, Richard N.

    2002-01-01

    On-line equipment condition monitoring is a critical component of the world-class production and safety histories of many successful nuclear plant operators. From addressing availability and operability concerns of nuclear safety-related equipment to increasing profitability through support system reliability and reduced maintenance costs, Predictive Maintenance programs have increasingly become a vital contribution to the maintenance and operation decisions of nuclear facilities. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the quality and portability of many of the instruments being used, and software improvements have been made as well. However, the single most influential component of the success of these programs is the impact of a trained and experienced team of personnel putting this technology to work. Changes in the nature of the power generation industry brought on by competition, mergers, and acquisitions, has taken the historically stable personnel environment of power generation and created a very dynamic situation. As a result, many facilities have seen a significant turnover in personnel in key positions, including predictive maintenance personnel. It has become the challenge for many nuclear operators to maintain the consistent contribution of quality data and information from predictive maintenance that has become important in the overall equipment decision process. These challenges can be met through the implementation of quality training to predictive maintenance personnel and regular updating and re-certification of key technology holders. The use of data management tools and services aid in the sharing of information across sites within an operating company, and with experts who can contribute value-added data management and analysis. The overall effectiveness of predictive maintenance programs can be improved through the incorporation of newly developed comprehensive technology training courses. These courses address the use of

  12. Development and Reliability of a Preliminary Foot Osteoarthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halstead, Jill; Martín-Hervás, Carmen; Hensor, Elizabeth M A; McGonagle, Dennis; Keenan, Anne-Maree; Redmond, Anthony C; Conaghan, Philip G

    2017-08-01

    Foot osteoarthritis (OA) is very common but underinvestigated musculoskeletal condition and there is little consensus as to common magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features. The aim of this study was to develop a preliminary foot OA MRI score (FOAMRIS) and evaluate its reliability. This preliminary semiquantitative score included the hindfoot, midfoot, and metatarsophalangeal joints. Joints were scored for joint space narrowing (JSN; 0-3), osteophytes (0-3), joint effusion/synovitis, and bone cysts (present/absent). Erosions and bone marrow lesions (BML) were scored (0-3) and BML were evaluated adjacent to entheses and at sub-tendon sites (present/absent). Additionally, tenosynovitis (0-3) and midfoot ligament pathology (present/absent) were scored. Reliability was evaluated in 15 people with foot pain and MRI-detected OA using 3.0T MRI multi-sequence protocols, and assessed using ICC as an overall score and per anatomical site. Intrareader agreement (ICC) was generally good to excellent across the foot in joint features (JSN 0.90, osteophytes 0.90, effusion/synovitis 0.46, cysts 0.87), bone features (BML 0.83, erosion 0.66, BML entheses 0.66, BML sub-tendon 0.60) and soft tissue features (tenosynovitis 0.83, ligaments 0.77). Interreader agreement was lower for joint features (JSN 0.43, osteophytes 0.27, effusion/synovitis 0.02, cysts 0.48), bone features (BML 0.68, erosion 0.00, BML entheses 0.34, BML sub-tendon 0.13), and soft tissue features (tenosynovitis 0.35, ligaments 0.33). This preliminary FOAMRIS demonstrated good intrareader reliability and fair interreader reliability when assessing the total feature scores. Further development is required in cohorts with a range of pathologies and to assess the psychometric measurement properties.

  13. The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

    2018-03-01

    This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

  14. Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

    2017-08-21

    Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

  15. Development and preliminary reliability of a multitasking assessment for executive functioning after concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Laurel B; Radomski, Mary Vining; Davidson, Leslie Freeman; Finkelstein, Marsha; Weightman, Margaret M; McCulloch, Karen L; Scherer, Matthew R

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES. Executive functioning deficits may result from concussion. The Charge of Quarters (CQ) Duty Task is a multitask assessment designed to assess executive functioning in servicemembers after concussion. In this article, we discuss the rationale and process used in the development of the CQ Duty Task and present pilot data from the preliminary evaluation of interrater reliability (IRR). METHOD. Three evaluators observed as 12 healthy participants performed the CQ Duty Task and measured performance using various metrics. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) quantified IRR. RESULTS. The ICC for task completion was .94. ICCs for other assessment metrics were variable. CONCLUSION. Preliminary IRR data for the CQ Duty Task are encouraging, but further investigation is needed to improve IRR in some domains. Lessons learned in the development of the CQ Duty Task could benefit future test development efforts with populations other than the military. Copyright © 2014 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

  16. Predicting methylphenidate response in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Blair A; Coghill, David; Matthews, Keith; Steele, J Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Methylphenidate (MPH) is established as the main pharmacological treatment for patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Whilst MPH is generally a highly effective treatment, not all patients respond, and some experience adverse reactions. Currently, there is no reliable method to predict how patients will respond, other than by exposure to a trial of medication. In this preliminary study, we sought to investigate whether an accurate predictor of clinical response to methylphenidate could be developed for individual patients, using sociodemographic, clinical and neuropsychological measures. Of the 43 boys with ADHD included in this proof-of-concept study, 30 were classed as responders and 13 as non-responders to MPH, with no significant differences in age nor verbal intelligence quotient (IQ) between the groups. Here we report the application of a multivariate analysis approach to the prediction of clinical response to MPH, which achieved an accuracy of 77% (p = 0.005). The most important variables to the classifier were performance on a 'go/no go' task and comorbid conduct disorder. This preliminary study suggested that further investigation is merited. Achieving a highly significant accuracy of 77% for the prediction of MPH response is an encouraging step towards finding a reliable and clinically useful method that could minimise the number of children needlessly being exposed to MPH. © The Author(s) 2014.

  17. Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark Jay

    551. For the same reasons, the predicted and actual fatigue performance did not correlate well. The results of this study should not be considered a limitation of the life prediction algorithm but emphasize the requirement that ceramics be homogeneous and strength-limiting flaws uniformly distributed as a perquisite for accurate life prediction and reliability analyses.

  18. Reliability of dipstick assay in predicting urinary tract infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anith Kumar Mambatta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Urine dipstick analysis is a quick, cheap and a useful test in predicting Urinary Tract Infection (UTI in hospitalized patients. Our aim is to evaluate the reliability (sensitivity of urine dipstick analysis against urine culture in the diagnosis of UTI. Materials and Methods: Patients admitted to our hospital suspected of having UTI, with positive urine cultures were included in this study from a 2-year period (January 2011 to December 2012. Dipstick urinalysis was done using multistix 10 SG (Siemens and clinitek advantus analyzer. The sensitivity of dipstick nitrites, leukocyte esterase and blood in these culture-positive UTI patients was calculated retrospectively. Results: Urine dipstick analysis of 635 urine culture-positive patients was studied. The sensitivity of nitrite alone and leukocyte esterase alone were 23.31% and 48.5%, respectively. The sensitivity of blood alone in positive urine culture was 63.94%, which was the highest sensitivity for a single screening test. The presence of leukocyte esterase and/or blood increased the sensitivity to 72.28%. The sensitivity was found to be the highest when nitrite, leukocyte and blood were considered together. Conclusions: Nitrite test and leukocyte esterase test when used individually is not reliable to rule out UTI. Hence, symptomatic UTI patients with negative dipstick assay should be subjected to urine culture for a proper management.

  19. Validity and reliability of a questionnaire to assess social skills in traumatic brain injury: A preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Heather M; Osborne-Crowley, Katherine; McDonald, Skye

    2017-01-01

    To describe the reliability and validity of a new measure, the Social Skills Questionnaire for Traumatic Brain Injury (SSQ-TBI). Fifty-one adults with severe TBI completed the SSQ-TBI questionnaire. Scores were compared to informant- and self-report on questionnaires addressing frontal lobe mediated behaviour, as well as performance on an objective measure of social cognition and neuropsychological tasks, in order to provide evidence of concurrent, divergent and predictive validity. Internal consistency was excellent at α = 0.90. Convergent validity was good, with informant ratings on the SSQ-TBI significantly correlated with Neuropsychiatric Inventory Disinhibition sub-scales (r = 0.50-63), the Current Behaviour Scale (r = 0.39-0.48) and Frontal Systems Behaviour Scale (r = 0.60-0.83). However, no relationship was seen with an objective measure of social skills or neuropsychological tasks of disinhibition. There was a significant relationship with real-world psychosocial outcomes on the Sydney Psychosocial Reintegration Scale-2 (r = -0.38--0.69) Conclusions: This study provides preliminary findings of good internal consistency and convergent and predictive validity of a social skills questionnaire adapted to be appropriate for individuals with TBI. Further assessment of psychometric properties such as test-re-test reliability and factor structure is warranted.

  20. Reliability prediction of engineering systems with competing failure modes due to component degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Young Kap

    2011-01-01

    Reliability of an engineering system depends on two reliability metrics: the mechanical reliability, considering component failures, that a functional system topology is maintained and the performance reliability of adequate system performance in each functional configuration. Component degradation explains not only the component aging processes leading to failure in function, but also system performance change over time. Multiple competing failure modes for systems with degrading components in terms of system functionality and system performance are considered in this paper with the assumption that system functionality is not independent of system performance. To reduce errors in system reliability prediction, this paper tries to extend system performance reliability prediction methods in open literature through combining system mechanical reliability from component reliabilities and system performance reliability. The extended reliability prediction method provides a useful way to compare designs as well as to determine effective maintenance policy for efficient reliability growth. Application of the method to an electro-mechanical system, as an illustrative example, is explained in detail, and the prediction results are discussed. Both mechanical reliability and performance reliability are compared to total system reliability in terms of reliability prediction errors

  1. The Spanish version of the 2010 American College of Rheumatology Preliminary Diagnostic Criteria for fibromyalgia: reliability and validity assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casanueva, Benigno; García-Fructuoso, Ferrán; Belenguer, Rafael; Alegre, Cayetano; Moreno-Muelas, José V; Hernández, José L; Pina, Tinitario; González-Gay, Miguel Á

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the reliability and validity of the Spanish version of the 2010 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Preliminary Diagnostic Criteria for Fibromyalgia (FM) in patients with chronic pain. The 2010 ACR Preliminary Diagnostic Criteria for FM were adapted to a Spanish version following the guidelines of the Rheumatology Spanish Society Study Group of FM. Based on the 1990 ACR classi cation criteria for FM, patients with chronic pain were initially divided into two groups: a FM group and another group of non-FM individuals. Patients from the FM group were evaluated by tender points (TP) examination, Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ), Widespread Pain Index (WPI), and Symptom Severity Scale (SSS). The non-FM (control) group included patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and osteoarthritis (OA). They were evaluated by WPI and SSS. We included 1,169 patients divided into two groups: FM group (n=803; 777 women and 26 men) and non-FM group (n= 366; 147 patients with RA, and 219 with OA). The median value of TP and FIQ in the FM group was 16 and 74 respectively. The preliminary 2010 ACR criteria were met by 665 (82.8%) FM patients and by 112 (30.6%) patients from the non-FM group (pFIQ (p<0.0001), WPI (p<0.0001) and SSS (p<0.0001) were observed when FM patients fulfilling the 2010 ACR criteria were compared with the remaining FM patients who did not fulfill these criteria. Sensitivity of the Spanish version of the 2010 ACR criteria was 85.6% (95%CI: 83.1-88.1), speci city 73.2% (95%CI: 68.4-78), positive predictive value 87.7% (95%CI: 85.3-90.1) and negative predictive value 69.4% (95%CI: 64.5-74.2). Our results indicate that the 2010 ACR Preliminary Diagnostic Criteria for FM may be useful to establish a diagnosis of FM in Spanish individuals with chronic pain.

  2. The Japanese version of the modified ACR preliminary diagnostic criteria for fibromyalgia and the fibromyalgia symptom scale: reliability and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usui, Chie; Hatta, Kotaro; Aratani, Satoko; Yagishita, Naoko; Nishioka, Kenya; Kanazawa, Teruhisa; Itoh, Kenji; Yamano, Yoshihisa; Nakamura, Hiroyuki; Nakajima, Toshihiro; Nishioka, Kusuki

    2013-09-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the reliability and validity of the Japanese version of the modified American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Preliminary Diagnostic Criteria for Fibromyalgia (mACR 2010-J) and the Fibromyalgia Symptom Scale (mFS-J). According to the ACR 1990 classification criteria, patients with chronic pain were divided into the fibromyalgia group and nonfibromyalgia group (rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis). Patients in both groups were assessed using mACR 2010-J and mFS-J. 294 of 462 (64 %) patients in the fibromyalgia group met mACR 2010-J, whereas 4 % (9/231) of the nonfibromyalgia group did, with sensitivity of 64 %, specificity of 96 %, positive predictive value of 97 %, negative predictive value of 56 %, and positive likelihood ratio of 16.3. Mean total scores on mFS-J significantly differentiated the fibromyalgia from the nonfibromyalgia group. According to the value of the Youden index, the best cutoff score for the mFS-J was 9/10. Our findings indicate that mACR 2010-J as a positive test and mFS-J as a quantification scale might be suitable for assessing fibromyalgia among Japanese chronic pain populations.

  3. A critique of reliability prediction techniques for avionics applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guru Prasad PANDIAN

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Avionics (aeronautics and aerospace industries must rely on components and systems of demonstrated high reliability. For this, handbook-based methods have been traditionally used to design for reliability, develop test plans, and define maintenance requirements and sustainment logistics. However, these methods have been criticized as flawed and leading to inaccurate and misleading results. In its recent report on enhancing defense system reliability, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has recently discredited these methods, judging the Military Handbook (MIL-HDBK-217 and its progeny as invalid and inaccurate. This paper discusses the issues that arise with the use of handbook-based methods in commercial and military avionics applications. Alternative approaches to reliability design (and its demonstration are also discussed, including similarity analysis, testing, physics-of-failure, and data analytics for prognostics and systems health management.

  4. Waste Feed Delivery System Phase 1 Preliminary Reliability and Availability and Maintainability Analysis [SEC 1 and 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CARLSON, A.B.

    1999-11-11

    The document presents updated results of the preliminary reliability, availability, maintainability analysis performed for delivery of waste feed from tanks 241-AZ-101 and 241-AN-105 to British Nuclear Fuels Limited, inc. under the Tank Waste Remediation System Privatization Contract. The operational schedule delay risk is estimated and contributing factors are discussed.

  5. Waste Feed Delivery System Phase 1 Preliminary Reliability and Availability and Maintainability Analysis [SEC 1 and 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CARLSON, A.B.

    1999-01-01

    The document presents updated results of the preliminary reliability, availability, maintainability analysis performed for delivery of waste feed from tanks 241-AZ-101 and 241-AN-105 to British Nuclear Fuels Limited, inc. under the Tank Waste Remediation System Privatization Contract. The operational schedule delay risk is estimated and contributing factors are discussed

  6. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  7. Conceptual Software Reliability Prediction Models for Nuclear Power Plant Safety Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, G.; Lawrence, D.; Yu, H.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this project is to develop a method to predict the potential reliability of software to be used in a digital system instrumentation and control system. The reliability prediction is to make use of existing measures of software reliability such as those described in IEEE Std 982 and 982.2. This prediction must be of sufficient accuracy to provide a value for uncertainty that could be used in a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For the purposes of the project, reliability was defined to be the probability that the digital system will successfully perform its intended safety function (for the distribution of conditions under which it is expected to respond) upon demand with no unintended functions that might affect system safety. The ultimate objective is to use the identified measures to develop a method for predicting the potential quantitative reliability of a digital system. The reliability prediction models proposed in this report are conceptual in nature. That is, possible prediction techniques are proposed and trial models are built, but in order to become a useful tool for predicting reliability, the models must be tested, modified according to the results, and validated. Using methods outlined by this project, models could be constructed to develop reliability estimates for elements of software systems. This would require careful review and refinement of the models, development of model parameters from actual experience data or expert elicitation, and careful validation. By combining these reliability estimates (generated from the validated models for the constituent parts) in structural software models, the reliability of the software system could then be predicted. Modeling digital system reliability will also require that methods be developed for combining reliability estimates for hardware and software. System structural models must also be developed in order to predict system reliability based upon the reliability

  8. Test-Retest Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Implicit Association Test in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rae, James R.; Olson, Kristina R.

    2018-01-01

    The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many…

  9. A common reference population from four European Holstein populations increases reliability of genomic predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens Sandø; de Ross, Sander PW; de Vries, Alfred G

    2011-01-01

    Background Size of the reference population and reliability of phenotypes are crucial factors influencing the reliability of genomic predictions. It is therefore useful to combine closely related populations. Increased accuracies of genomic predictions depend on the number of individuals added to...

  10. Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

    CERN Document Server

    El Hami, Abdelkhalak

    2015-01-01

    In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

  11. Engineering Design Handbook: Development Guide for Reliability. Part Three. Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    to t is pa(t)=l-qa(t) (10-6) This is the reliability of being closed, defined for this interval. 2 The probability that a contact viH be open...Monte Carlo simulation. Few people can know all about all available programs. Special- ists can assist in selecting a few from the avail- able many

  12. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

  13. Methods to compute reliabilities for genomic predictions of feed intake

    Science.gov (United States)

    For new traits without historical reference data, cross-validation is often the preferred method to validate reliability (REL). Time truncation is less useful because few animals gain substantial REL after the truncation point. Accurate cross-validation requires separating genomic gain from pedigree...

  14. The PedsQL™ Present Functioning Visual Analogue Scales: preliminary reliability and validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varni James W

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The PedsQL™ Present Functioning Visual Analogue Scales (PedsQL™ VAS were designed as an ecological momentary assessment (EMA instrument to rapidly measure present or at-the-moment functioning in children and adolescents. The PedsQL™ VAS assess child self-report and parent-proxy report of anxiety, sadness, anger, worry, fatigue, and pain utilizing six developmentally appropriate visual analogue scales based on the well-established Varni/Thompson Pediatric Pain Questionnaire (PPQ Pain Intensity VAS format. Methods The six-item PedsQL™ VAS was administered to 70 pediatric patients ages 5–17 and their parents upon admittance to the hospital environment (Time 1: T1 and again two hours later (Time 2: T2. It was hypothesized that the PedsQL™ VAS Emotional Distress Summary Score (anxiety, sadness, anger, worry and the fatigue VAS would demonstrate moderate to large effect size correlations with the PPQ Pain Intensity VAS, and that patient" parent concordance would increase over time. Results Test-retest reliability was demonstrated from T1 to T2 in the large effect size range. Internal consistency reliability was demonstrated for the PedsQL™ VAS Total Symptom Score (patient self-report: T1 alpha = .72, T2 alpha = .80; parent proxy-report: T1 alpha = .80, T2 alpha = .84 and Emotional Distress Summary Score (patient self-report: T1 alpha = .74, T2 alpha = .73; parent proxy-report: T1 alpha = .76, T2 alpha = .81. As hypothesized, the Emotional Distress Summary Score and Fatigue VAS were significantly correlated with the PPQ Pain VAS in the medium to large effect size range, and patient and parent concordance increased from T1 to T2. Conclusion The results demonstrate preliminary test-retest and internal consistency reliability and construct validity of the PedsQL™ Present Functioning VAS instrument for both pediatric patient self-report and parent proxy-report. Further field testing is required to extend these initial

  15. Human reliability: an evaluation of its understanding and prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joksimovich, V.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a viewpoint on the state-of-the-art in human reliability. The bases for this viewpoint are, by and large, research projects conducted by the NUS for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) primarily with the objective of further enhancing the credibility of PRA methodology. The presentation is divided into the following key sections: Background and Overview, Methodology and Data Base with emphasis on the simulator data base

  16. Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, M. R.; Kamins, M.; Mooz, W. E.

    1978-01-01

    A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models.

  17. Preliminary investigation on reliability of genomic estimated breeding values in the Danish and Swedish Holstein Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Su, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Gregersen, V R

    2010-01-01

    or no effects, and a single prior distribution common for all SNP. It was found that, in general, the model with a common prior distribution of scaling factors had better predictive ability than any mixture prior models. Therefore, a common prior model was used to estimate SNP effects and breeding values......Abstract This study investigated the reliability of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) in the Danish Holstein population. The data in the analysis included 3,330 bulls with both published conventional EBV and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. After data editing, 38,134 SNP markers...... were available. In the analysis, all SNP were fitted simultaneously as random effects in a Bayesian variable selection model, which allows heterogeneous variances for different SNP markers. The response variables were the official EBV. Direct GEBV were calculated as the sum of individual SNP effects...

  18. Reliability prediction for structures under cyclic loads and recurring inspections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto W. S. Mello Jr

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a methodology for determining the reliability of fracture control plans for structures subjected to cyclic loads. It considers the variability of the parameters involved in the problem, such as initial flaw and crack growth curve. The probability of detection (POD curve of the field non-destructive inspection method and the condition/environment are used as important factors for structural confidence. According to classical damage tolerance analysis (DTA, inspection intervals are based on detectable crack size and crack growth rate. However, all variables have uncertainties, which makes the final result totally stochastic. The material properties, flight loads, engineering tools and even the reliability of inspection methods are subject to uncertainties which can affect significantly the final maintenance schedule. The present methodology incorporates all the uncertainties in a simulation process, such as Monte Carlo, and establishes a relationship between the reliability of the overall maintenance program and the proposed inspection interval, forming a “cascade” chart. Due to the scatter, it also defines the confidence level of the “acceptable” risk. As an example, the damage tolerance analysis (DTA results are presented for the upper cockpit longeron splice bolt of the BAF upgraded F-5EM. In this case, two possibilities of inspection intervals were found: one that can be characterized as remote risk, with a probability of failure (integrity nonsuccess of 1 in 10 million, per flight hour; and other as extremely improbable, with a probability of nonsuccess of 1 in 1 billion, per flight hour, according to aviation standards. These two results are compared with the classical military airplane damage tolerance requirements.

  19. Reliability prediction system based on the failure rate model for electronic components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Woo; Lee, Hwa Ki

    2008-01-01

    Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. Among the reliability prediction methods are the statistical analysis based method, the similarity analysis method based on an external failure rate database, and the method based on the physics-of-failure model. In this study, we developed a system by which the reliability of electronic components can be predicted by creating a system for the statistical analysis method of predicting reliability most easily. The failure rate models that were applied are MILHDBK- 217F N2, PRISM, and Telcordia (Bellcore), and these were compared with the general purpose system in order to validate the effectiveness of the developed system. Being able to predict the reliability of electronic components from the stage of design, the system that we have developed is expected to contribute to enhancing the reliability of electronic components

  20. Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2015-01-01

    The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... understanding of climate impacts, such as how to improve coupled models from physics to fish and how to strengthen confidence in analysis of time series...

  1. Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J.

    2000-09-01

    Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction

  2. Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J

    2000-09-01

    Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction.

  3. Investigating Postgraduate College Admission Interviews: Generalizability Theory Reliability and Incremental Predictive Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges

    2007-01-01

    The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…

  4. Reliability Prediction Approaches For Domestic Intelligent Electric Energy Meter Based on IEC62380

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Tong, Guanghua; Yang, Jincheng; Sun, Guodong; Han, Dongjun; Wang, Guixian

    2018-01-01

    The reliability of intelligent electric energy meter is a crucial issue considering its large calve application and safety of national intelligent grid. This paper developed a procedure of reliability prediction for domestic intelligent electric energy meter according to IEC62380, especially to identify the determination of model parameters combining domestic working conditions. A case study was provided to show the effectiveness and validation.

  5. Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

    2017-12-01

    Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

  6. A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

  7. Supporting change processes in design: Complexity, prediction and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert, Claudia M. [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: cme26@cam.ac.uk; Keller, Rene [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: rk313@cam.ac.uk; Earl, Chris [Open University, Department of Design and Innovation, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: C.F.Earl@open.ac.uk; Clarkson, P. John [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: pjc10@cam.ac.uk

    2006-12-15

    Change to existing products is fundamental to design processes. New products are often designed through change or modification to existing products. Specific parts or subsystems are changed to similar ones whilst others are directly reused. Design by modification applies particularly to safety critical products where the reuse of existing working parts and subsystems can reduce cost and risk. However change is rarely a matter of just reusing or modifying parts. Changing one part can propagate through the entire design leading to costly rework or jeopardising the integrity of the whole product. This paper characterises product change based on studies in the aerospace and automotive industry and introduces tools to aid designers in understanding the potential effects of change. Two ways of supporting designers are described: probabilistic prediction of the effects of change and visualisation of change propagation through product connectivities. Change propagation has uncertainties which are amplified by the choices designers make in practice as they implement change. Change prediction and visualisation is discussed with reference to complexity in three areas of product development: the structural backcloth of connectivities in the existing product (and its processes), the descriptions of the product used in design and the actions taken to carry out changes.

  8. Fast mission reliability prediction for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, J.D.; Poole, J.; Chen, W.H.

    2013-01-01

    There is currently a significant interest in the use of autonomous vehicles in many industrial sectors. One such example is the ever increasing use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), particularly in military operations. This enables dangerous missions to be accomplished without risk to a pilot. UAVs also have potential civil applications which would require their certification and the demonstration that they are able to respond safety to any potential circumstances. The aircraft would therefore need to be capable of responding safely to the occurrence of component failures, the emergence of threats such as other aircraft in the neighboring airspace, and changing weather conditions. The likelihood that an aircraft will successfully complete any mission can be predicted using phased mission analysis techniques. The predicted mission unreliability can be updated in response to changing circumstances. In the event that the likelihood of mission failure becomes too high then changes have to be made to the mission plan. If these calculations could be carried out fast enough then the quantification procedure could be used to establish an acceptable response to any new conditions. With a view to using the methodology in the context described above, this paper investigates ways in which phased mission analysis can be improved to reduce the calculation time. The methodology improves the processing capability for a UAV phased mission analysis by taking into account the specific characteristics of the fault tree structures which provide the causes of phase failure for a UAV mission. It also carries out as much of the quantification as possible in advance of the mission plan being formulated

  9. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Morten

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of the reliability of specific real value predictions is nontrivial and the efficacy of this is often questionable. It is important to know if you can trust a given prediction and therefore the best methods associate a prediction with a reliability score or index. For discrete qualitative predictions, the reliability is conventionally estimated as the difference between output scores of selected classes. Such an approach is not feasible for methods that predict a biological feature as a single real value rather than a classification. As a solution to this challenge, we have implemented a method that predicts the relative surface accessibility of an amino acid and simultaneously predicts the reliability for each prediction, in the form of a Z-score. Results An ensemble of artificial neural networks has been trained on a set of experimentally solved protein structures to predict the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output. Conclusion The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability score with the individual predictions. However, our implementation of reliability scores in the form of a Z-score is shown to be the more informative measure for discriminating good predictions from bad ones in the entire range from completely buried to fully exposed amino acids. This is evident when comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0

  10. Towards early software reliability prediction for computer forensic tools (case study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu Talib, Manar

    2016-01-01

    Versatility, flexibility and robustness are essential requirements for software forensic tools. Researchers and practitioners need to put more effort into assessing this type of tool. A Markov model is a robust means for analyzing and anticipating the functioning of an advanced component based system. It is used, for instance, to analyze the reliability of the state machines of real time reactive systems. This research extends the architecture-based software reliability prediction model for computer forensic tools, which is based on Markov chains and COSMIC-FFP. Basically, every part of the computer forensic tool is linked to a discrete time Markov chain. If this can be done, then a probabilistic analysis by Markov chains can be performed to analyze the reliability of the components and of the whole tool. The purposes of the proposed reliability assessment method are to evaluate the tool's reliability in the early phases of its development, to improve the reliability assessment process for large computer forensic tools over time, and to compare alternative tool designs. The reliability analysis can assist designers in choosing the most reliable topology for the components, which can maximize the reliability of the tool and meet the expected reliability level specified by the end-user. The approach of assessing component-based tool reliability in the COSMIC-FFP context is illustrated with the Forensic Toolkit Imager case study.

  11. Reliable prediction of adsorption isotherms via genetic algorithm molecular simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LoftiKatooli, L; Shahsavand, A

    2017-01-01

    Conventional molecular simulation techniques such as grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) strictly rely on purely random search inside the simulation box for predicting the adsorption isotherms. This blind search is usually extremely time demanding for providing a faithful approximation of the real isotherm and in some cases may lead to non-optimal solutions. A novel approach is presented in this article which does not use any of the classical steps of the standard GCMC method, such as displacement, insertation, and removal. The new approach is based on the well-known genetic algorithm to find the optimal configuration for adsorption of any adsorbate on a structured adsorbent under prevailing pressure and temperature. The proposed approach considers the molecular simulation problem as a global optimization challenge. A detailed flow chart of our so-called genetic algorithm molecular simulation (GAMS) method is presented, which is entirely different from traditions molecular simulation approaches. Three real case studies (for adsorption of CO 2 and H 2 over various zeolites) are borrowed from literature to clearly illustrate the superior performances of the proposed method over the standard GCMC technique. For the present method, the average absolute values of percentage errors are around 11% (RHO-H 2 ), 5% (CHA-CO 2 ), and 16% (BEA-CO 2 ), while they were about 70%, 15%, and 40% for the standard GCMC technique, respectively.

  12. Reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

    1993-08-01

    This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

  13. Preliminary Analysis of LORAN-C System Reliability for Civil Aviation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-09-01

    overviev of the analysis technique. Section 3 describes the computerized LORAN-C coverage model which is used extensively in the reliability analysis...Xth Plenary Assembly, Geneva, 1963, published by International Telecomunications Union. S. Braff, R., Computer program to calculate a Karkov Chain Reliability Model, unpublished york, MITRE Corporation. A-1 I.° , 44J Ili *Y 0E 00 ...F i8 1110 Prelim inary Analysis of Program Engineering & LORAN’C System ReliabilityMaintenance Service i ~Washington. D.C.

  14. Optimization of reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for inertial navigation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Xiuhong; Duan, Fuhai; Tian, Heng; Wei, Xuedong

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this study is to propose a reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for a complex structure Inertial Navigation System (INS) with several redundant components. GO Methodology is applied to build the INS reliability analysis model—GO chart. Components Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and system reliability are updated dynamically based on the combination of components lifetime distribution function, stress samples, and the system GO chart. Considering the redundant design in INS, maintenance time is based not only on components RUL, but also (and mainly) on the timing of when system reliability fails to meet the set threshold. The definition of components maintenance priority balances three factors: components importance to system, risk degree, and detection difficulty. Maintenance Priority Number (MPN) is introduced, which may provide quantitative maintenance priority results for all components. A maintenance unit time cost model is built based on components MPN, components RUL predictive model and maintenance intervals for the optimization of maintenance scope. The proposed scheme can be applied to serve as the reference for INS maintenance. Finally, three numerical examples prove the proposed predictive maintenance scheme is feasible and effective. - Highlights: • A dynamic PdM with a rolling horizon is proposed for INS with redundant components. • GO Methodology is applied to build the system reliability analysis model. • A concept of MPN is proposed to quantify the maintenance sequence of components. • An optimization model is built to select the optimal group of maintenance components. • The optimization goal is minimizing the cost of maintaining system reliability

  15. A generic Approach for Reliability Predictions considering non-uniformly Deterioration Behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, Jakob; Kabitzsch, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    Predictive maintenance offers the possibility to prognosticate the remaining time until a maintenance action of a machine has to be scheduled. Unfortunately, current predictive maintenance solutions are only suitable for very specific use cases like reliability predictions based on vibration monitoring. Furthermore, they do not consider the fact that machines may deteriorate non-uniformly, depending on external influences (e.g., the work piece material in a milling machine or the changing fruit acid concentration in a bottling plant). In this paper two concepts for a generic predictive maintenance solution which also considers non-uniformly aging behaviour are introduced. The first concept is based on system models representing the health state of a technical system. As these models are usually statically (viz. without a timely dimension) their coefficients are determined periodically and the resulting time series is used as aging indicator. The second concept focuses on external influences (contexts) which change the behaviour of the previous mentioned aging indicators in order to increase the accuracy of reliability predictions. Therefore, context-depended time series models are determined and used to predict machine reliability. Both concepts were evaluated on data of an air ventilation system. Thereby, it could be shown that they are suitable to determine aging indicators in a generic way and to incorporate external influences in the reliability prediction. Through this, the quality of reliability predictions can be significantly increased. In reality this leads to a more accurate scheduling of maintenance actions. Furthermore, the generic character of the solutions makes the concepts suitable for a wide range of aging processes.

  16. Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

    2018-03-01

    In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

  17. A Reliable and Valid Survey to Predict a Patient’s Gagging Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casey M. Hearing

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to devise a reliable and valid survey to predict the intensity of someone’s gag reflex. Material and Methods: A 10-question Predictive Gagging Survey was created, refined, and tested on 59 undergraduate participants. The questions focused on risk factors and experiences that would indicate the presence and strength of someone’s gag reflex. Reliability was assessed by administering the survey to a group of 17 participants twice, with 3 weeks separating the two administrations. Finally, the survey was given to 25 dental patients. In these cases, patients completed an informed consent form, filled out the survey, and then had a maxillary impression taken while their gagging response was quantified from 1 to 5 on the Fiske and Dickinson Gagging Intensity Index. Results: There was a moderate positive correlation between the Predictive Gagging Survey and Fiske and Dickinson’s Gagging Severity Index, r = +0.64, demonstrating the survey’s validity. Furthermore, the test-retest reliability was r = +0.96, demonstrating the survey’s reliability. Conclusions: The Predictive Gagging Survey is a 10-question survey about gag-related experiences and behaviours. We established that it is a reliable and valid method to assess the strength of someone’s gag reflex.

  18. Preliminary checkout on the reliability and validity of nuclear and radiation effect psychological effect rating scale (NRERS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin Zhongwei; Xie Huaijiang; Yang Chengjun; Yin Xuhui

    2009-01-01

    Objective: To preliminarily evaluate the reliability and validity of the NRPES. Methods: NRPES, SDS and SAS were applied to assess the psychological sate of 352 soldiers, 80 soldiers were randomly selected to determine with NRPES again, which at last contribute to assess the reliability and validity of NRPES. Results: The satisfactory reliability and Cronbach a coefficient respectively were 0.756 and 0.698. The sixth and eighth factor of the principal component analysis are combined together to a new factor, the results indicate the constructive validity is adaptive to the primary design of the questionnaire. NRPES and its 7 factors have a greater significant relation and the correlation coefficient which is from 0.569 ∼ 0.878. There is a great significant correlation between the NRPES, factor x1, x2, x3 and SDS, SAS, the correlation coefficient of which are over 0.5. Conclusion: Though NRPES has some shortcomings,which need to be improved late, NRPES has a better reliability and validity through the preliminary checkout. (authors)

  19. Reliable prediction and determination of Norwegian lamb carcass composition and value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kongsro, Jørgen

    2008-01-01

    The main objective of this work was to study prediction and determination of Norwegian lamb carcass composition with different techniques spanning from subjective appraisal to computer-intensive methods. There is an increasing demand, both from farmers and processors of meats, for a more objective and reliable system for prediction of muscle (lean meat), fat, bone and value of a lamb carcass. When introducing new technologies for determination of lamb carcass composition, the reference method used for calibration must be precise and reliable. The precision and reliability of the current dissection reference for lamb carcass classification and grading has never been quantified. A poor reference method will not benefit even the most optimal system for prediction and determination of lamb carcasses. To help achieve reliable systems, the uncertainty or errors in the reference method and measuring systems needs to be quantified. Using proper calibration methods for the measuring systems, the uncertainty and modeling power can be determined for lamb carcasses. The results of the work presented in this thesis show that the current classification system using subjective appraisal (EUROP) is reliable; however the accuracy with respect to carcass composition, especially for lean meat or muscle and carcass value, is poor. The reference method used for determining lamb carcass composition with respect to lamb carcass classification and grading is precise and reliable for carcass composition. For the composition and yield of sub-primal cuts, the reliability varied, and was especially poor for the breast cut. Further attention is needed for jointing and cutting of sub-primals to achieve even higher precision and reliability of the reference method. As an alternative to butcher or manual dissection, Computer Tomography (CT) showed promising results with respect to prediction of lamb carcass composition. This method is nicknamed “virtual dissection”. By utilizing the

  20. Reliability of computerized cephalometric outcome predictions of mandibular set-back surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanović Neda

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A successful treatment outcome in dentofacial deformity patients commonly requires combined orthodontic-surgical therapy. This enables us to overcome functional, aesthetic and psychological problems. Since most patients state aesthetics as the primary motive for seeking therapy, cephalometric predictions of treatment outcome have become the essential part of treatment planning, especially in combined orthodontic-surgical cases. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of computerized orthognathic surgery outcome predictions generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software. Methods. The sample of the study consisted of 31 patients diagnosed with mandibular prognathism who were surgically treated at the Hospital for Maxillofacial Surgery in Belgrade. Investigation was done on lateral cephalograms made before and after surgical treatment. Cephalograms were digitized and analyzed using computer software. According to measurements made on superimposed pre- and postsurgical cephalograms, the patients were retreated within the software and the predictions were assessed by measuring seven angular and three linear parameters. Prediction measurements were then compared with the actual outcome. Results. Results showed statistically significant changes between posttreatment and predicted values for parameters referring to lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position. Conclusion. Computerized cephalometric predictions for hard-tissue structures in the sagittal and vertical planes, as well as the VTO parameters, generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software are reliable, while lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position predictions are not reliable enough.

  1. Test-retest reliability and predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rae, James R; Olson, Kristina R

    2018-02-01

    The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many factors simultaneously (lag-time between testing administrations, domain, etc.), it is difficult to discern what factors may explain variability in existing test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates. Across five studies (total N = 519; ages 6- to 11-years-old), we manipulated two factors that have varied in previous developmental research-lag-time and domain. An internal meta-analysis of these studies revealed that, across three different methods of analyzing the data, mean test-retest (rs of .48, .38, and .34) and predictive validity (rs of .46, .20, and .10) effect sizes were significantly greater than zero. While lag-time did not moderate the magnitude of test-retest coefficients, whether we observed domain differences in test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates was contingent on other factors, such as how we scored the IAT or whether we included estimates from a unique sample (i.e., a sample containing gender typical and gender diverse children). Recommendations are made for developmental researchers that utilize the IAT in their research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Development of equipment reliability process using predictive technologies at Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, Yuji; Sakuragi, Futoshi; Hamada, Seiichi

    2014-01-01

    Development of equipment reliability(ER) process, specifically for predictive maintenance (PdM) technologies integrated condition based maintenance (CBM) process, at Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station is introduced in this paper. Integration of predictive maintenance technologies such as vibration, oil analysis and thermo monitoring is more than important to establish strong maintenance strategies and to direct a specific technical development. In addition, a practical example of CBM is also presented to support the advantage of the idea. (author)

  3. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading

  4. Trade-offs in size, quantity and reliability of generalized nuclear power plants: a preliminary assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, D.

    1985-04-01

    An approximate method is used to estimate the effects of system reliability on optimal nuclear plant size, taking into account also scale factors and manufacturing learning curve slopes. The method is used to estimate the additional effective capability gained by adding units of different sizes to an existing electrical system. The number of additional units proves to be sensitive to forced outrage rate, estimated here from trends in US light-water reactors from 1971 to 1980. The relative cost of added units ranging in size from 200 to 800 MW is determined as a function of the parameters: scale factor and learning curve slope. The results generally corrobate the trends found in an earlier study in which the effect of reliability on required installed capacity was not explicitly considered. Optimal plant size decreases with weaker scale effects and stronger learning curve effects. Reliability considerations further reduce the optimal plant size, but the relative reduction is apparently not as great with steeper learning curves. This is a plausible finding inasmuch as the reduction in numbers of additional units due to reliability considerations will affect cost most where the learning curve is steepest. 9 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  5. The Adolescent HIV Disclosure Cognition and Affect Scale: Preliminary Reliability and Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeli, Michael

    2017-07-01

    Globally, there are 2 million HIV-positive 10-19-year-olds. One challenge for this population is sharing their HIV status with others (onward HIV disclosure). There are no multi-item, multidimensional scales of HIV disclosure cognitions and affect for young people living with HIV. An 18-item measure of HIV disclosure cognition and affect was developed, administered to 65 adolescents living with HIV (aged 12-16 years). Data were explored using principal component analysis and preliminary construct and criterion validity assessed. Three factors were revealed: negative disclosure attitudes and feelings, self-efficacy, and positive disclosure attitudes and feelings. The full scale and its subscales were internally consistent. The total score showed statistically significant positive relationships with HIV disclosure in the past 6 months, HIV disclosure intention and self-perception. Preliminary evidence of the measure's good psychometric properties suggests it may be helpful in future clinical and research work. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  6. A Structured Clinical Interview for Kleptomania (SCI-K): preliminary validity and reliability testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Jon E; Kim, Suck Won; McCabe, James S

    2006-06-01

    Kleptomania presents difficulties in diagnosis for clinicians. This study aimed to develop and test a DSM-IV-based diagnostic instrument for kleptomania. To assess for current kleptomania the Structured Clinical Interview for Kleptomania (SCI-K) was administered to 112 consecutive subjects requesting psychiatric outpatient treatment for a variety of disorders. Reliability and validity were determined. Classification accuracy was examined using the longitudinal course of illness. The SCI-K demonstrated excellent test-retest (Phi coefficient = 0.956 (95% CI = 0.937, 0.970)) and inter-rater reliability (phi coefficient = 0.718 (95% CI = 0.506, 0.848)) in the diagnosis of kleptomania. Concurrent validity was observed with a self-report measure using DSM-IV kleptomania criteria (phi coefficient = 0.769 (95% CI = 0.653, 0.850)). Discriminant validity was observed with a measure of depression (point biserial coefficient = -0.020 (95% CI = -0.205, 0.166)). The SCI-K demonstrated both high sensitivity and specificity based on longitudinal assessment. The SCI-K demonstrated excellent reliability and validity in diagnosing kleptomania in subjects presenting with various psychiatric problems. These findings require replication in larger groups, including non-psychiatric populations, to examine their generalizability. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  8. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Bent; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl; Andersen, Pernille

    2009-01-01

    : The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability...... comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0.79 and 0.74 are obtained using our and the compared method, respectively. This tendency is true for any selected subset....

  9. Test anxiety inventory-State: Preliminary analysis of validity and reliability in psychology college students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Dominguez-Lara

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to examine the internal structure of the Test anxiety inventory-State (TAI-State in Spanish version. A sample of 125 college students from Lima (84.8% female between 18 and 31 years old (M = 22.51 was evaluated. The internal structure of the STAI was analyzed by a confirmatory factor analysis, evaluating three models: oblique, bifactor and unidimensional. The results indicate that a single dimension constitutes the STAI and there are coefficients of reliability with high magnitudes. In conclusion, the version studied shows favorable psychometric properties that support its use in Lima.

  10. Diesel-generator reliability at nuclear power plants: data and preliminary analysis. Interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClymont, A.; McLagan, G.

    1982-06-01

    This report summarizes work performed under RP1233-1 relating to the collection and analysis of data pertaining to diesel generator reliability in nuclear power plants. Drawing from data collected on-site at plants, data supplied by utilites, and data from Licensee Event Reports (LERs), the report describes methods of deriving reliability estimates from data for use in probabilistic risk assessment and presents results when these methods are applied to data collected from 14 plants. Specifically, data are used to estimate diesel failure probabilities for failures to start and failure rates for failures to continue to run. A sampling theory approach and a Bayesian approach to failure probability estimation are compared. The data are used to derive estimates of diesel repair time for some plants, maintenance outages, and multiple diesel failure rates. In addition, a section is included that presents suggestions for failure-rate estimation when an accurate count of diesel start attempts at a plant is not available. The final section presents an analysis of diesel failures based on data from LERs, including a breakdown of failure event by subsystem, failure mode, and failure cause. Appendixes include detailed summaries of the data used in the analysis of previous sections

  11. Reliability: How much is it worth? Beyond its estimation or prediction, the (net) present value of reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleh, J.H.; Marais, K.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, we link an engineering concept, reliability, to a financial and managerial concept, net present value, by exploring the impact of a system's reliability on its revenue generation capability. The framework here developed for non-repairable systems quantitatively captures the value of reliability from a financial standpoint. We show that traditional present value calculations of engineering systems do not account for system reliability, thus over-estimate a system's worth and can therefore lead to flawed investment decisions. It is therefore important to involve reliability engineers upfront before investment decisions are made in technical systems. In addition, the analyses here developed help designers identify the optimal level of reliability that maximizes a system's net present value-the financial value reliability provides to the system minus the cost to achieve this level of reliability. Although we recognize that there are numerous considerations driving the specification of an engineering system's reliability, we contend that the financial analysis of reliability here developed should be made available to decision-makers to support in part, or at least be factored into, the system reliability specification

  12. Site characterization and validation. Stage 2 - Preliminary predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, O.; Black, J.H.; Gale, J.E.; Holmes, D.C.

    1989-05-01

    The Site Characterization and Validation (SCV) project is designed to assess how well we can characterize a volume of rock prior to using it as a repository. The programme of work focuses on the validation of the techniques used in site characterization. The SCV project contains 5 stages of work arranged in two 'cycles' of data-gathering, prediction, and validation. The first stage of work has included drilling of 6 boreholes (N2, N3, N4, W1, W2 and V3) and measurements of geology, fracture characteristics, stess, single borehole geophysical logging, radar, seismics and hydrogeology. The rock at the SCV site is granite with small lithological variations. Based essentially on radar and seismic results 5 'fracture zones' have been identified, named GA, GB, GC, GH and GI. They all extend acroos the entire SCV site. They aer basically in in two groups (GA, GB, GC and GH, GI). The first group are aligned N40 degree E with a dip of 35 degree to the south. The second group are aligned approximately N10 degree W dipping 60 degree E. From the stochastic analysis of the joint data it was possible to identify three main fracture orientation clusters. The orientation of two of these clusters agree roughly with orientation of the main features. Cluster B has roughly the same orientation as GH and GI, while features GA, GB and GC have an orientation similar to the more loosely defined cluster C. The orientation of the third cluster (A) is northwest with a dip to northeast. It is found that 94% of all measured hydraulic transmissivity is accounted for by 4% of the tested rock, not all of this 'concentrated' transmissivity is with the major features defined by geophysics. When the hydraulic connections across the site are examied they show that there are several welldefined zones which permit rapid transmission of hydraulic signals. These are essentially from the northeast to the southwest. (66 figs., 21 tabs., 33 refs.)

  13. Reliability Prediction Of System And Component Of Process System Of RSG-GAS Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sitorus Pane, Jupiter

    2001-01-01

    The older the reactor the higher the probability of the system and components suffer from loss of function or degradation. This phenomenon occurred because of wear, corrosion, and fatigue. Study on component reliability was generally performed deterministically and statistically. This paper would describe an analysis of using statistical method, i.e. regression Cox, in order to predict the reliability of the components and their environmental influence's factors. The result showed that the dynamics, non safety related, and mechanic components have higher risk of failure, whereas static, safety related, and electric have lower risk of failures. The relative risk value for variable of components dynamics, quality, dummy 1 and dummy 2 are of 1.54, 1.59, 1.50, and 0.83 compare to other components type with each variable. Component with the higher risk have lower reliability than lower one

  14. Reliability of self-reported childhood physical abuse by adults and factors predictive of inconsistent reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Christy M; Harris, T Robert; Caetano, Raul

    2009-01-01

    Little is known about the reliability of self-reported child physical abuse (CPA) or CPA reporting practices. We estimated reliability and prevalence of self-reported CPA and identified factors predictive of inconsistent CPA reporting among 2,256 participants using surveys administered in 1995 and 2000. Reliability of CPA was fair to moderate (kappa = 0.41). Using a positive report from either survey, the prevalence of moderate (61.8%) and severe (12.0%) CPA was higher than at either survey alone. Compared to consistent reporters of having experienced CPA, inconsistent reporters were less likely to be > or = 30 years old (vs. 18-29) or Black (vs. White) and more likely to have report one type (vs. > or = 2) of CPA. These findings may assist researchers conducting and interpreting studies of CPA.

  15. Reliability and Validity of the Load-Velocity Relationship to Predict the 1RM Back Squat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banyard, Harry G; Nosaka, Kazunori; Haff, G Gregory

    2017-07-01

    Banyard, HG, Nosaka, K, and Haff, GG. Reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the 1RM back squat. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1897-1904, 2017-This study investigated the reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the free-weight back squat one repetition maximum (1RM). Seventeen strength-trained males performed three 1RM assessments on 3 separate days. All repetitions were performed to full depth with maximal concentric effort. Predicted 1RMs were calculated by entering the mean concentric velocity of the 1RM (V1RM) into an individualized linear regression equation, which was derived from the load-velocity relationship of 3 (20, 40, 60% of 1RM), 4 (20, 40, 60, 80% of 1RM), or 5 (20, 40, 60, 80, 90% of 1RM) incremental warm-up sets. The actual 1RM (140.3 ± 27.2 kg) was very stable between 3 trials (ICC = 0.99; SEM = 2.9 kg; CV = 2.1%; ES = 0.11). Predicted 1RM from 5 warm-up sets up to and including 90% of 1RM was the most reliable (ICC = 0.92; SEM = 8.6 kg; CV = 5.7%; ES = -0.02) and valid (r = 0.93; SEE = 10.6 kg; CV = 7.4%; ES = 0.71) of the predicted 1RM methods. However, all predicted 1RMs were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05; ES = 0.71-1.04) from the actual 1RM. Individual variation for the actual 1RM was small between trials ranging from -5.6 to 4.8% compared with the most accurate predictive method up to 90% of 1RM, which was more variable (-5.5 to 27.8%). Importantly, the V1RM (0.24 ± 0.06 m·s) was unreliable between trials (ICC = 0.42; SEM = 0.05 m·s; CV = 22.5%; ES = 0.14). The load-velocity relationship for the full depth free-weight back squat showed moderate reliability and validity but could not accurately predict 1RM, which was stable between trials. Thus, the load-velocity relationship 1RM prediction method used in this study cannot accurately modify sessional training loads because of large V1RM variability.

  16. Measures of Hindu Pathways: Development and Preliminary Evidence of Reliability and Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarakeshwar, Nalini; Pargament, Kenneth I.; Mahoney, Annette

    2003-01-01

    Examines religious practices of Hindus in the United States and develops measures of their religious pathways. Four religious pathways were identified: devotion, ethical action, knowledge, and physical restraint/yoga. Results indicate that the measures of the religious pathways possessed adequate psychometric properties and were predictive of…

  17. Reliability of the Dissociative Trance Disorder Interview Schedule: A preliminary report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Colin A; Somer, Eli; Goode, Caitlin

    2018-01-01

    One hundred inpatients in a hospital-based Trauma Program in the USA were interviewed with the Dissociative Trance Disorder Interview Schedule (DTDIS). There were no significant differences for the DTDIS total score or any of the subscale scores on test-retest: all t-values comparing the two administrations of the DTDIS were below 0.7, and all p-values were above 0.5. Cronbach's alpha for the US sample was 0.966 and for the Israeli sample it was 0.971. The findings indicate that the DTDIS has good reliability and may be suitable for use in cross-cultural research; however, the results require replication by independent researchers in a variety of cultures and languages, and in both clinical and nonclinical samples.

  18. The application of cognitive models to the evaluation and prediction of human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Reason, J.T.

    1986-01-01

    The first section of the paper provides a brief overview of a number of important principles relevant to human reliability modeling that have emerged from cognitive models, and presents a synthesis of these approaches in the form of a Generic Error Modeling System (GEMS). The next section illustrates the application of GEMS to some well known nuclear power plant (NPP) incidents in which human error was a major contributor. The way in which design recommendations can emerge from analyses of this type is illustrated. The third section describes the use of cognitive models in the classification of human errors for prediction and data collection purposes. The final section addresses the predictive modeling of human error as part of human reliability assessment in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

  19. General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

    2016-01-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

  20. Reliability of didactic grades to predict practical skills in an undergraduate dental college in Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawawi, Khalid H; Afify, Ahmed R; Yousef, Mohammed K; Othman, Hisham I; Al-Dharrab, Ayman A

    2015-01-01

    This longitudinal study was aimed to investigate the association between didactic grades and practical skills for dental students and whether didactic grades can reliability predict the dental students' practical performance. Didactic and practical grades for graduates from the Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, between the years 2009 and 2011 were collected. Four courses were selected: Dental Anatomy, Operative Dentistry, Prosthodontics, and Orthodontics. Pearson product-moment correlation analyses between didactic and practical scores were conducted. There was only a significant correlation between didactic and practical scores for the Dental Anatomy course (Pdidactic scores (Pdidactic and practical scores for all subjects. Based on the findings of this study, the relationship between didactic grades and practical performance is course specific. Didactic grades do not reliably predict the students' practical skills. Measuring practical performances should be independent from didactic grading.

  1. A dynamic particle filter-support vector regression method for reliability prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Zhao; Tao, Tao; ZhuoShu, Ding; Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Support vector regression (SVR) has been applied to time series prediction and some works have demonstrated the feasibility of its use to forecast system reliability. For accuracy of reliability forecasting, the selection of SVR's parameters is important. The existing research works on SVR's parameters selection divide the example dataset into training and test subsets, and tune the parameters on the training data. However, these fixed parameters can lead to poor prediction capabilities if the data of the test subset differ significantly from those of training. Differently, the novel method proposed in this paper uses particle filtering to estimate the SVR model parameters according to the whole measurement sequence up to the last observation instance. By treating the SVR training model as the observation equation of a particle filter, our method allows updating the SVR model parameters dynamically when a new observation comes. Because of the adaptability of the parameters to dynamic data pattern, the new PF–SVR method has superior prediction performance over that of standard SVR. Four application results show that PF–SVR is more robust than SVR to the decrease of the number of training data and the change of initial SVR parameter values. Also, even if there are trends in the test data different from those in the training data, the method can capture the changes, correct the SVR parameters and obtain good predictions. -- Highlights: •A dynamic PF–SVR method is proposed to predict the system reliability. •The method can adjust the SVR parameters according to the change of data. •The method is robust to the size of training data and initial parameter values. •Some cases based on both artificial and real data are studied. •PF–SVR shows superior prediction performance over standard SVR

  2. Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) Software System Reliability Modeling and Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-06-01

    Service ( ATARS ) module because of its interim status. Reliability prediction models for software modules were derived and then verified by matching...System (A’iCR3BS) and thus can be introduced gradually and economically without ma jor olper- ational or procedural change. Since DABS uses monopulse...lineanaly- sis tools or are ured during maintenance or pre-initialization were not modeled because they are not part of the mission software. The ATARS

  3. Maintenance personnel performance simulation (MAPPS): a model for predicting maintenance performance reliability in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.; Krois, P.A.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.; Ryan, T.G.

    1983-01-01

    The NRC has developed a structured, quantitative, predictive methodology in the form of a computerized simulation model for assessing maintainer task performance. Objective of the overall program is to develop, validate, and disseminate a practical, useful, and acceptable methodology for the quantitative assessment of NPP maintenance personnel reliability. The program was organized into four phases: (1) scoping study, (2) model development, (3) model evaluation, and (4) model dissemination. The program is currently nearing completion of Phase 2 - Model Development

  4. Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS)

    OpenAIRE

    Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

    2012-01-01

    Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to cri...

  5. A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Weixian

    2000-03-01

    Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

  6. An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz [Air Force Institute of Technology ul. Księcia Bolesława 6 01-494 Warsaw (Poland)

    2016-06-08

    The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment’s reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

  7. An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz

    2016-01-01

    The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment’s reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

  8. Failure and reliability prediction by support vector machines regression of time series data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chagas Moura, Marcio das; Zio, Enrico; Lins, Isis Didier; Droguett, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are kernel-based learning methods, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems. However, their use in reliability applications has not been widely explored. In this paper, a comparative analysis is presented in order to evaluate the SVM effectiveness in forecasting time-to-failure and reliability of engineered components based on time series data. The performance on literature case studies of SVM regression is measured against other advanced learning methods such as the Radial Basis Function, the traditional MultiLayer Perceptron model, Box-Jenkins autoregressive-integrated-moving average and the Infinite Impulse Response Locally Recurrent Neural Networks. The comparison shows that in the analyzed cases, SVM outperforms or is comparable to other techniques. - Highlights: → Realistic modeling of reliability demands complex mathematical formulations. → SVM is proper when the relation input/output is unknown or very costly to be obtained. → Results indicate the potential of SVM for reliability time series prediction. → Reliability estimates support the establishment of adequate maintenance strategies.

  9. Preliminary Reliability and Validity of an Exercise Benefits and Barriers for Stroke Prevention Scale in an African American Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aycock, Dawn M; Clark, Patricia C

    2015-01-01

    African Americans are at heightened risk of first stroke, and regular exercise can reduce stroke risk. Benefits and barriers to exercise subscales from 2 instruments were combined to create the Exercise Benefits and Barriers for Stroke Prevention (EBBSP) scale. Reliability and validity of the EBBSP scale were examined in a nonrandom sample of 66 African Americans who were primarily female, average age 43.3 ± 9.4 years, and high school graduates. Both subscales had adequate internal consistency reliability. Factor analysis revealed two factors for each subscale. More benefits and fewer perceived barriers were significantly related to current exercise and future intentions to exercise. The EBBSP scale may be useful in research focused on understanding, predicting, and promoting exercise for stroke prevention in adults.

  10. Using personality item characteristics to predict single-item reliability, retest reliability, and self-other agreement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Reinout Everhard; Realo, Anu; Allik, Jüri

    2016-01-01

    The use of reliability estimates is increasingly scrutinized as scholars become more aware that test–retest stability and self–other agreement provide a better approximation of the theoretical and practical usefulness of an instrument than its internal reliability. In this study, we investigate item

  11. An overall methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design with industrial application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habchi, Georges; Barthod, Christine

    2016-01-01

    We propose in this paper an overall ten-step methodology dedicated to the analysis and quantification of reliability during the design phase of a mechatronic system, considered as a complex system. The ten steps of the methodology are detailed according to the downward side of the V-development cycle usually used for the design of complex systems. Two main phases of analysis are complementary and cover the ten steps, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The qualitative phase proposes to analyze the functional and dysfunctional behavior of the system and then determine its different failure modes and degradation states, based on external and internal functional analysis, organic and physical implementation, and dependencies between components, with consideration of customer specifications and mission profile. The quantitative phase is used to calculate the reliability of the system and its components, based on the qualitative behavior patterns, and considering data gathering and processing and reliability targets. Systemic approach is used to calculate the reliability of the system taking into account: the different technologies of a mechatronic system (mechanics, electronics, electrical .), dependencies and interactions between components and external influencing factors. To validate the methodology, the ten steps are applied to an industrial system, the smart actuator of Pack'Aero Company. - Highlights: • A ten-step methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design. • Qualitative and quantitative analysis for reliability evaluation using PN and RBD. • A dependency matrix proposal, based on the collateral and functional interactions. • Models consider mission profile, deterioration, interactions and influent factors. • Application and validation of the methodology on the “Smart Actuator” of PACK’AERO.

  12. Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Yizhen; Wang, Yu; Zi, YanYang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung; Zhang, Chuhua

    2017-01-01

    The ‘Test, Analyze and Fix’ process is widely applied to improve the reliability of a repairable system. In this process, dynamic reliability assessment for the system has been paid a great deal of attention. Due to instrument malfunctions, staff omissions and imperfect inspection strategies, field reliability data are often subject to interval censoring, making dynamic reliability assessment become a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume this kind of data as multiple normal distributed variables or the missing mechanism as missing at random, which may cause a large bias in parameter estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the dynamic reliability of a repairable system subject to interval-censored problem. First, a multiple imputation strategy based on the assumption that the reliability growth trend follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is developed to derive the distributions of missing data. Second, a new order statistic model that can transfer the dependent variables into independent variables is developed to simplify the imputation procedure. The unknown parameters of the model are iteratively inferred by the Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for gas pipeline compressor system are implemented. - Highlights: • A new multiple imputation strategy was developed to derive the PDF of missing data. • A new order statistic model was developed to simplify the imputation procedure. • The parameters of the order statistic model were iteratively inferred by MCEM. • A real cases study was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  13. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  14. The 6-min push test is reliable and predicts low fitness in spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Rachel E; Callahan, Morgan K; Nash, Mark S

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study is to assess 6-min push test (6MPT) reliability, determine whether the 6MPT is sensitive to fitness differences, and assess if 6MPT distance predicts fitness level in persons with spinal cord injury (SCI) or disease. Forty individuals with SCI who could self-propel a manual wheelchair completed an incremental arm crank peak oxygen consumption assessment and two 6MPTs across 3 d (37% tetraplegia (TP), 63% paraplegia (PP), 85% men, 70% white, 63% Hispanic, mean age = 34 ± 10 yr, mean duration of injury = 13 ± 10 yr, and mean body mass index = 24 ± 5 kg.m). Intraclass correlation and Bland-Altman plots assessed 6MPT distance (m) reliability. Mann-Whitney U test compared 6MPT distance (m) of high and low fitness groups for TP and PP. The fitness status prediction was developed using N = 30 and validated in N = 10 (validation group (VG)). A nonstatistical prediction approach, below or above a threshold distance (TP = 445 m and PP = 604 m), was validated statistically by binomial logistic regression. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were computed to evaluate the threshold approach. Intraclass correlation coefficients exceeded 0.90 for the whole sample and the TP/PP subsets. High fitness persons propelled farther than low fitness persons for both TP/PP (both P < 0.05). Binomial logistic regression (P < 0.008) predicted the same fitness levels in the VG as the threshold approach. In the VG, overall accuracy was 70%. Eighty-six percent of low fitness persons were correctly identified (sensitivity), and 33% of high fitness persons were correctly identified (specificity). The 6MPT may be a useful tool for SCI clinicians and researchers. 6MPT distance demonstrates excellent reliability and is sensitive to differences in fitness level. 6MPT distances less than a threshold distance may be an effective approach to identify low fitness in person with SCI.

  15. ARA and ARI imperfect repair models: Estimation, goodness-of-fit and reliability prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toledo, Maria Luíza Guerra de; Freitas, Marta A.; Colosimo, Enrico A.; Gilardoni, Gustavo L.

    2015-01-01

    An appropriate maintenance policy is essential to reduce expenses and risks related to equipment failures. A fundamental aspect to be considered when specifying such policies is to be able to predict the reliability of the systems under study, based on a well fitted model. In this paper, the classes of models Arithmetic Reduction of Age and Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity are explored. Likelihood functions for such models are derived, and a graphical method is proposed for model selection. A real data set involving failures in trucks used by a Brazilian mining is analyzed considering models with different memories. Parameters, namely, shape and scale for Power Law Process, and the efficiency of repair were estimated for the best fitted model. Estimation of model parameters allowed us to derive reliability estimators to predict the behavior of the failure process. These results are a valuable information for the mining company and can be used to support decision making regarding preventive maintenance policy. - Highlights: • Likelihood functions for imperfect repair models are derived. • A goodness-of-fit technique is proposed as a tool for model selection. • Failures in trucks owned by a Brazilian mining are modeled. • Estimation allowed deriving reliability predictors to forecast the future failure process of the trucks

  16. Genotyping cows for the reference increase reliability of genomic prediction in a small breed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Sørensen, Anders Christian; Lund, Mogens Sandø

    2013-01-01

    We hypothesized that adding cows to the reference population in a breed with a small number of reference bulls would increase reliabilities of genomic breeding values and genetic gain. We tested this premise by comparing two strategies for maintaining the reference population for genetic gain......, inbreeding and reliabilities of genomic predictions: 1) Adding 60 progeny tested bulls each year (B), and 2) in addition to 60 progeny tested bulls, adding 2,000 genotyped cows per year (C). Two breeding schemes were tested: 1) A turbo scheme (T) with only genotyped young bulls used intensively, and 2...... compared to the H-B, at the same level of ∆F. T-C yielded 15% higher ∆G compared t o T-B. Changing the breeding scheme from H-B to H-C increased ∆G by 5.5%. The lowest ∆F was observed with genotyping of cows. Reliabilities of GEBV in the C schemes showed a steep increase in reliability during the first...

  17. [Reliability and validity of the Braden Scale for predicting pressure sore risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boes, C

    2000-12-01

    For more accurate and objective pressure sore risk assessment various risk assessment tools were developed mainly in the USA and Great Britain. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk is one such example. By means of a literature analysis of German and English texts referring to the Braden Scale the scientific control criteria reliability and validity will be traced and consequences for application of the scale in Germany will be demonstrated. Analysis of 4 reliability studies shows an exclusive focus on interrater reliability. Further, even though examination of 19 validity studies occurs in many different settings, such examination is limited to the criteria sensitivity and specificity (accuracy). The range of sensitivity and specificity level is 35-100%. The recommended cut off points rank in the field of 10 to 19 points. The studies prove to be not comparable with each other. Furthermore, distortions in these studies can be found which affect accuracy of the scale. The results of the here presented analysis show an insufficient proof for reliability and validity in the American studies. In Germany, the Braden scale has not yet been tested under scientific criteria. Such testing is needed before using the scale in different German settings. During the course of such testing, construction and study procedures of the American studies can be used as a basis as can the problems be identified in the analysis presented below.

  18. Impact of Relationships between Test and Reference Animals and between Reference Animals on Reliability of Genomic Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Xiaoping; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sun, Dongxiao

    This study investigated reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to relationship between test and reference animals and between animals within the reference population. Different reference populations were generated from EuroGenomics data and 1288 Nordic Holstein bulls...... as a common test population. A GBLUP model and a Bayesian mixture model were applied to predict Genomic breeding values for bulls in the test data. Result showed that a closer relationship between test and reference animals led to a higher reliability, while a closer relationship between reference animal...... resulted in a lower reliability. Therefore, the design of reference population is important for improving the reliability of genomic prediction. With regard to model, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to slightly a higher reliability of genomic prediction than the GBLUP model...

  19. Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

    2015-10-01

    One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  20. A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

    2014-09-01

    LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

  1. Physics-based process modeling, reliability prediction, and design guidelines for flip-chip devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaelides, Stylianos

    Flip Chip on Board (FCOB) and Chip-Scale Packages (CSPs) are relatively new technologies that are being increasingly used in the electronic packaging industry. Compared to the more widely used face-up wirebonding and TAB technologies, flip-chips and most CSPs provide the shortest possible leads, lower inductance, higher frequency, better noise control, higher density, greater input/output (I/O), smaller device footprint and lower profile. However, due to the short history and due to the introduction of several new electronic materials, designs, and processing conditions, very limited work has been done to understand the role of material, geometry, and processing parameters on the reliability of flip-chip devices. Also, with the ever-increasing complexity of semiconductor packages and with the continued reduction in time to market, it is too costly to wait until the later stages of design and testing to discover that the reliability is not satisfactory. The objective of the research is to develop integrated process-reliability models that will take into consideration the mechanics of assembly processes to be able to determine the reliability of face-down devices under thermal cycling and long-term temperature dwelling. The models incorporate the time and temperature-dependent constitutive behavior of various materials in the assembly to be able to predict failure modes such as die cracking and solder cracking. In addition, the models account for process-induced defects and macro-micro features of the assembly. Creep-fatigue and continuum-damage mechanics models for the solder interconnects and fracture-mechanics models for the die have been used to determine the reliability of the devices. The results predicted by the models have been successfully validated against experimental data. The validated models have been used to develop qualification and test procedures for implantable medical devices. In addition, the research has helped develop innovative face

  2. Remaining life prediction of I and C cables for reliability assessment of NPP systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh, T.V.; Ghosh, A.K.; Fernandes, B.G.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A framework for time dependent reliability prediction of I and C cables for use in PSA of NPP has been developed using stress–strength interference theory. ► The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal aging data on a typical XLPE cable. ► The behavior of insulation resistance when the degradation process is linear or exponential has also been modeled. ► The reliability index or probability of failure obtained from this approach can be used in system reliability evaluation to account for cable aging for PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I and C) cables are one of the most important components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) because they provide power to safety-related equipment and also to transmit signals to and from various controllers to perform safety operations. I and C cables in NPP are subjected to a variety of aging and degradation stressors that can produce immediate degradation or aging-related mechanisms causing the degradation of cable components over time. Although, there exits several life estimation techniques, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach toward estimating the time dependent reliability of I and C cables that can be directly used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) applications. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an approach to estimate and confirm the continued acceptable margin in cable insulation life over time subjected to aging. This paper presents a framework based on the structural reliability theory to quantify the life time of I and C cable subjecting to thermal aging. Since cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables are extensively being used in Indian NPPs, the remaining life time evaluations have been carried out for a typical XLPE cable. However, the methodology can be extended to other cables such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), etc.

  3. Notes on human factors problems in process plant reliability and safety prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, J.; Taylor, J.R.

    1976-09-01

    The basis for plant operator reliability evaluation is described. Principles for plant design, necessary to permit reliability evaluation, are outlined. Five approaches to the plant operator reliability problem are described. Case stories, illustrating operator reliability problems, are given. (author)

  4. Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina

    To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...

  5. Nuclear power plant maintenance personnel reliability prediction (NPP/MPRP) effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.

    1981-01-01

    Human errors committed during maintenance activities are potentially a major contribution to the overall risk associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP). An NRC-sponsored program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is attempting to develop a quantitative predictive technique to evaluate the contribution of maintenance errors to the overall NPP risk. The current work includes a survey of the requirements of potential users to ascertain the need for and content of the proposed quantitative model, plus an initial job/task analysis to determine the scope and applicability of various maintenance tasks. In addition, existing human reliability prediction models are being reviewed and assessed with respect to their applicability to NPP maintenance tasks. This paper discusses the status of the program and summarizes the results to date

  6. Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

    2012-10-01

    Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to criminal justice system involvement, self-report measures of aggression, impulsivity, and lack of empathy. Additionally, the CCS was associated with violent criminal history, antisocial personality, and clinicians' ratings of risk for future violence and psychopathy (PCL:SV). Furthermore, criminogenic thinking upon incarceration predicted subsequent official reports of inmate misconduct during incarceration. CCS scores varied somewhat by gender and race. Research and applied uses of CCS are discussed.

  7. Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

    2014-09-01

    Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology.

  8. Developing a novel hierarchical approach for multiscale structural reliability predictions for ultra-high consequence applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emery, John M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Coffin, Peter [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robbins, Brian A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Carroll, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Field, Richard V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeremy Yoo, Yung Suk [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kacher, Josh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Microstructural variabilities are among the predominant sources of uncertainty in structural performance and reliability. We seek to develop efficient algorithms for multiscale calcu- lations for polycrystalline alloys such as aluminum alloy 6061-T6 in environments where ductile fracture is the dominant failure mode. Our approach employs concurrent multiscale methods, but does not focus on their development. They are a necessary but not sufficient ingredient to multiscale reliability predictions. We have focused on how to efficiently use concurrent models for forward propagation because practical applications cannot include fine-scale details throughout the problem domain due to exorbitant computational demand. Our approach begins with a low-fidelity prediction at the engineering scale that is sub- sequently refined with multiscale simulation. The results presented in this report focus on plasticity and damage at the meso-scale, efforts to expedite Monte Carlo simulation with mi- crostructural considerations, modeling aspects regarding geometric representation of grains and second-phase particles, and contrasting algorithms for scale coupling.

  9. The prediction of reliability and residual life of reactor pressure components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemec, J.; Antalovsky, S.

    1978-01-01

    The paper deals with the problem of PWR pressure components reliability and residual life evaluation and prediction. A physical model of damage cumulation which serves as a theoretical basis for all considerations presents two major aspects. The first one describes the dependence of the degree of damage in the crack leading-edge in pressure components on the reactor system load-time history, i.e. on the number of transient loads. Both stages, fatigue crack initiation and growth through the wall until the critical length is reached, are investigated. The crack is supposed to initiate at the flaws in a strength weld joint or in the bimetallic weld of the base ferritic steel and the austenitic stainless overlay cladding. The growth rates of developed cracks are analysed in respect to different load-time histories. Important cyclic properties of some steels are derived from the low-cycle fatigue theory. The second aspect is the load-time history-dependent process of precipitation, deformation and radiation aging, characterized entirely by the critical crack-length value mentioned above. The fracture point, defined by the equation ''crack-length=critical value'' and hence the residual life, can be evaluated using this model and verified by in-service inspection. The physical model described is randomized by considering all the parameters of the model as random. Monte Carlo methods are applied and fatigue crack initiation and growth is simulated. This permits evaluation of the reliability and residual life of the component. The distributions of material and load-time history parameters are needed for such simulation. Both the deterministic and computer-simulated probabilistic predictions of reliability and residual life are verified by prior-to-failure sequential testing of data coming from in-service NDT periodical inspections. (author)

  10. Reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Frederik Banch; Krog, Grethe Risum; Rieneck, Klaus

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis.......The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis....

  11. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  12. Reliability of radiographic observations recorded on a proforma measured using inter- and intra-observer variation: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, M B; Gulabivala, K; Holt, R; Kahan, R S

    2000-05-01

    The aim of this preliminary study was to test the reliability of radiographic evaluation of features of endodontic interest using a newly devised data collection system. Twelve endodontic MSc postgraduate students and one specialist endodontist examined sample radiographs derived from a random selection of 42 patients seen previously on an Endodontic New Patient Clinic (EDI). Each student examined a random selection of 8-9 roots on periapical radiographs of single- and multirooted teeth, with and without previous root canal therapy and 3-4 dental panoramic tomograms (DPTs). A total of 100 roots were examined. A proforma was used to record observations on 67 radiographic features using predefined criteria. Intra-observer agreement was tested by asking the students to re-examine the radiographs. The principle investigator and the specialist endodontist examined the same radiographs and devised a Gold Standard using the same criteria. This was compared with the student assessments to determine inter-observer variation. The postgraduates then attended a revision session on the use of the form. Each student subsequently examined 8-9 different roots from the pool of radiographs. A further assessment of inter-observer variation was made by comparing these observations with the Gold Standard. Of the 67 radiographic features, only 25 had sufficient response to allow statistical analysis. Kappa values for intra- and inter-observer variation were estimated. These varied depending on the particular radiographic feature being assessed. Fifteen out of 25 intra-observer recordings showed 'good' or 'very good' Kappa agreement, but only three out of 25 inter-observer observations achieved 'good' or 'very good' values. Inter-observer variation was improved following the revision session with 16 out of 25 observations achieving 'good' or 'very good' Kappa agreement. Modification to the proforma, the criteria used, and training for radiographic assessment were considered necessary to

  13. A web-based team-oriented medical error communication assessment tool: development, preliminary reliability, validity, and user ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sara; Brock, Doug; Prouty, Carolyn D; Odegard, Peggy Soule; Shannon, Sarah E; Robins, Lynne; Boggs, Jim G; Clark, Fiona J; Gallagher, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Multiple-choice exams are not well suited for assessing communication skills. Standardized patient assessments are costly and patient and peer assessments are often biased. Web-based assessment using video content offers the possibility of reliable, valid, and cost-efficient means for measuring complex communication skills, including interprofessional communication. We report development of the Web-based Team-Oriented Medical Error Communication Assessment Tool, which uses videotaped cases for assessing skills in error disclosure and team communication. Steps in development included (a) defining communication behaviors, (b) creating scenarios, (c) developing scripts, (d) filming video with professional actors, and (e) writing assessment questions targeting team communication during planning and error disclosure. Using valid data from 78 participants in the intervention group, coefficient alpha estimates of internal consistency were calculated based on the Likert-scale questions and ranged from α=.79 to α=.89 for each set of 7 Likert-type discussion/planning items and from α=.70 to α=.86 for each set of 8 Likert-type disclosure items. The preliminary test-retest Pearson correlation based on the scores of the intervention group was r=.59 for discussion/planning and r=.25 for error disclosure sections, respectively. Content validity was established through reliance on empirically driven published principles of effective disclosure as well as integration of expert views across all aspects of the development process. In addition, data from 122 medicine and surgical physicians and nurses showed high ratings for video quality (4.3 of 5.0), acting (4.3), and case content (4.5). Web assessment of communication skills appears promising. Physicians and nurses across specialties respond favorably to the tool.

  14. How reliable must advanced nondestructive testing be? A concept for the prediction, validation and raised quality of NDT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nockemann, C.; Tillack, G.R.; Schnitger, D.; Heidt, H.

    1995-01-01

    A concept of the harmonic integration of the following three mainstays of the reliability of ndt is proposed: 1. Theoretical prediction of the reliability as a function of physical parameter by computer modelling of the test problem concerned and the ndt process; maximisation by variation of the parameters. 2. Experimental evaluation of the reliability of ndt processes by the application of statistical methods to test practice. 3. Increasing the reliability by the combination of several ndt methods in a standard DV environment and European interconnection and provision of a distributed databank system. International exchange of experience via telecommunication. (orig.) [de

  15. Preliminary prediction of inflow into the D-holes at the Stripa Mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, J.C.S.; Karasaki, K.; Davey, A.; Peterson, J.; Landsfeld, M.; Kemeny, J.; Martel, S.

    1990-02-01

    Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) is contracted by the US Department of Energy to provide an auxiliary modeling effort for the Stripa Project. Within this effort, we are making calculations of inflow to the Simulated Drift Experiment (SDE), i.e. inflow to six parallel, closely spaced D-holes, using a preliminary set of data collected in five other holes, the N- and W-holes during Stages 1 and 2 of the Site Characterization and Validation (SCV) project. Our approach has been to focus on the fracture zones rather than the general set of ubiquitous fractures. Approximately 90% of all the water flowing in the rock is flowing in fracture zones which are neither uniformly conductive nor are they infinitely extensive. Our approach has been to adopt the fracture zone locations as they have been identified with geophysics. We use geologic sense and the original geophysical data to add one zone where significant water inflow has been observed that can not be explained with the other geophysical zones. This report covers LBL's preliminary prediction of flow into the D-holes. Care should be taken in interpreting the results given in this report. As explained below, the approach that LBL has designed for developing a fracture hydrology model requires cross-hole hydrologic data. Cross-hole tests are planned for Stage 3 but were unavailable in Stage 1. As such, we have inferred from available data what a cross-hole test might show and used this synthetic data to make a preliminary calculation of the inflow into the D-holes. Then using all the Stage 3 data we will calculate flow into the Validation Drift itself. The report mainly demonstrates the use of our methodology and the simulated results should be considered preliminary

  16. Investigations and technical reviews on the reliability of prediction for migration behavior of radionuclides (H15)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tachikawa, Hirokazu

    2004-02-01

    The research plan of the validation on effects of colloids and organic materials drawn up by the Japan Nuclear Fuel Cycle Development Institute and its' research outcome were reviewed comprehensively by an expert committee established in the Nuclear Safety Research Association. Additionally, experimental investigations for the migration behavior of actinide elements and fission products in engineering barrier and natural barrier medias, and for solution chemistry of them were carried out and discussed by the committee, in order to enhance the reliability of prediction for migration behavior of radionuclides. The subjects investigated by the expert committee are as follows: (1) Research on solubility products of An(III) hydroxide. (2) Diffusion and electromigration behavior of plutonium in buffer material. (3) Analysis of the nuclide solubility in compacted bentonite. (4) Survey of the actual contamination by alpha emitters in steel materials. (author)

  17. Quantitative trait loci markers derived from whole genome sequence data increases the reliability of genomic prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøndum, Rasmus Froberg; Su, Guosheng; Janss, Luc

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the effect on the reliability of genomic prediction when a small number of significant variants from single marker analysis based on whole genome sequence data were added to the regular 54k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. The extra markers were selected...... with the aim of augmenting the custom low-density Illumina BovineLD SNP chip (San Diego, CA) used in the Nordic countries. The single-marker analysis was done breed-wise on all 16 index traits included in the breeding goals for Nordic Holstein, Danish Jersey, and Nordic Red cattle plus the total merit index...... itself. Depending on the trait’s economic weight, 15, 10, or 5 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were selected per trait per breed and 3 to 5 markers were selected to tag each QTL. After removing duplicate markers (same marker selected for more than one trait or breed) and filtering for high pairwise linkage...

  18. Reflow Process Parameters Analysis and Reliability Prediction Considering Multiple Characteristic Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Yu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As a major step surface mount technology, reflow process is the key factor affecting the quality of the final product. The setting parameters and characteristic value of temperature curve shows a nonlinear relationship. So parameter impacts on characteristic values are analyzed and the parameters adjustment process based on orthogonal experiment is proposed in the paper. First, setting parameters are determined and the orthogonal test is designed according to production conditions. Then each characteristic value for temperature profile is calculated. Further, multi-index orthogonal experiment is analyzed for acquiring the setting parameters which impacts the PCBA product quality greater. Finally, reliability prediction is carried out considering the main influencing parameters for providing a theoretical basis of parameters adjustment and product quality evaluation in engineering process.

  19. Prediction method of long-term reliability in improving residual stresses by means of surface finishing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sera, Takehiko; Hirano, Shinro; Chigusa, Naoki; Okano, Shigetaka; Saida, Kazuyoshi; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

    2012-01-01

    Surface finishing methods, such as Water Jet Peening (WJP), have been applied to welds in some major components of nuclear power plants as a counter measure to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). In addition, the methods of surface finishing (buffing treatment) is being standardized, and thus the buffing treatment has been also recognized as the well-established method of improving stress. On the other hand, the long-term stability of peening techniques has been confirmed by accelerated test. However, the effectiveness of stress improvement by surface treatment is limited to thin layers and the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal beneath the surface is not strictly taken into account for long-term stability. This paper, therefore, describes the accelerated tests, which confirmed that the long-term stability of the layer subjected to buffing treatment was equal to that subjected to WJP. The long-term reliability of very thin stress improved layer was also confirmed through a trial evaluation by thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis, even if the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal was excessively taken into account. Considering the above findings, an approach is proposed for constructing the prediction method of the long-term reliability of stress improvement by surface finishing. (author)

  20. Preliminary lifetime predictions for 304 stainless steel as the LANL ABC blanket material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, J.J.; Buksa, J.J.; Houts, M.G.; Arthur, E.D.

    1997-11-01

    The prediction of materials lifetime in the preconceptual Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Accelerator-Based Conversion of Plutonium (ABC) is of utmost interest. Because Hastelloy N showed good corrosion resistance to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Molten Salt Reactor Experiment fuel salt that is similar to the LANL ABC fuel salt, Hastelloy N was originally proposed for the LANL ABC blanket material. In this paper, the possibility of using 304 stainless steel as a replacement for the Hastelloy N is investigated in terms of corrosion issues and fluence-limit considerations. An attempt is made, based on the previous Fast Flux Test Facility design data, to predict the preliminary lifetime estimate of the 304 stainless steel used in the blanket region of the LANL ABC

  1. Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear: Reliability of MR Imaging to Predict Stability after Conservative Treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Hye Won; Ahn, Jin Hwan; Ahn, Joong Mo; Yoon, Young Cheol; Hong, Hyun Pyo; Yoo, So Young; Kim, Seon Woo [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-06-15

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the reliability of MR imaging to predict the stability of the torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after complete recovery of the ligament's continuity. Twenty patients with 20 knee injuries (13 males and 7 females; age range, 20 54) were enrolled in the study. The inclusion criteria were a positive history of acute trauma, diagnosis of the ACL tear by both the physical examination and the MR imaging at the initial presentation, conservative treatment, complete recovery of the continuity of the ligament on the follow up (FU) MR images and availability of the KT-2000 measurements. Two radiologists, who worked in consensus, graded the MR findings with using a 3-point system for the signal intensity, sharpness, straightness and the thickness of the healed ligament. The insufficiency of ACL was categorized into three groups according to the KT-2000 measurements. The statistic correlations between the grades of the MR findings and the degrees of ACL insufficiency were analyzed using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test (p < 0.05). The p-values for each category of the MR findings according to the different groups of the KT-2000 measurements were 0.9180 for the MR signal intensity, 1.0000 for sharpness, 0.5038 for straightness and 0.2950 for thickness of the ACL. The MR findings were not significantly different between the different KT-2000 groups. MR imaging itself is not a reliable examination to predict stability of the ACL rupture outcome, even when the MR images show an intact appearance of the ACL.

  2. Test-retest reliability of the Middlesex Assessment of Mental State (MEAMS): a preliminary investigation in people with probable dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, T; Brooker, D J; Papadopolous, A

    1993-05-01

    Relative and absolute test-retest reliability of the MEAMS was examined in 12 subjects with probable dementia and 12 matched controls. Relative reliability was good. Measures of absolute reliability showed scores changing by up to 3 points over an interval of a week. A version effect was found to be in evidence.

  3. Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

    The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

  4. Assessing the reliability of predictive activity coefficient models for molecules consisting of several functional groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. P. Gerber

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the most successful predictive models for activity coefficients are those based on functional groups such as UNIFAC. In contrast, these models require a large amount of experimental data for the determination of their parameter matrix. A more recent alternative is the models based on COSMO, for which only a small set of universal parameters must be calibrated. In this work, a recalibrated COSMO-SAC model was compared with the UNIFAC (Do model employing experimental infinite dilution activity coefficient data for 2236 non-hydrogen-bonding binary mixtures at different temperatures. As expected, UNIFAC (Do presented better overall performance, with a mean absolute error of 0.12 ln-units against 0.22 for our COSMO-SAC implementation. However, in cases involving molecules with several functional groups or when functional groups appear in an unusual way, the deviation for UNIFAC was 0.44 as opposed to 0.20 for COSMO-SAC. These results show that COSMO-SAC provides more reliable predictions for multi-functional or more complex molecules, reaffirming its future prospects.

  5. On the reliability of predictions of geomechanical response - project Cosa in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knowles, N.C.; Lowe, M.J.S.; Come, B.

    1990-01-01

    Project COSA (Comparison of computer codes for Salt) was set up by the CEC as international benchmark exercise to compare the reliability of predictions of thermo-mechanical response of HLW repositories in salt. The first phase (COSA I) was conducted between 1984-1986 and attention was directed at code verification issues. The second phase (COSA II), carried out in the period 1986-1988, addressed code validation and other issues. Specifically, a series of experimental heat and pressure tests carried out at the Asse Mine in Wast Germany were modelled and predictions of the thermo-mechanical behaviour were compared. Ten European organisations participated. A key feature of this exercise was that, as far as possible, the calculations were performed blind (i.e. without any knowledge of the observed behaviour) using the best information available a priori, to describe the physical situation to be modelled. Interest centred around the various constitutive models (of material behaviour) for rock-salt and the assumptions about the in situ state of stress. The paper gives an overview of the project, presents some broad conclusions and attempts to assess their significance. 17 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  6. Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

    2015-09-01

    To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

  7. On which term is the prediction of the behaviour of glass necessary and reliable?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, J.

    1997-01-01

    The author questions the ethics of the deep underground storage of high-level radioactive wastes. The time periods that are considered for the confinement are so long that it is completely impossible to predict the way of life of people at that time and the level of knowledge they will have reached. There is a total agreement about the ethics principle of not jeopardizing life and environment of future generations but the difficulty is to draw the limits of this protection. In the regulations of most countries 2 periods of time are defined: the first 500 years and 10.000 years. 500 years is the period of high heat releases due to the decay of most fission products and is also a reasonable time during which the confining site (structures and packages) stays accessible. 10.000 years is considered as the period of time during which predictions are reliable, beyond this time uncertainties become too important and more and more numerous. (A.C.)

  8. Reliability of steam-turbine rotors. Task 1. Lifetime prediction analysis system. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nair, P.K.; Pennick, H.G.; Peters, J.E.; Wells, C.H.

    1982-12-01

    Task 1 of RP 502, Reliability of Steam Turbine Rotors, resulted in the development of a computerized lifetime prediction analysis system (STRAP) for the automatic evaluation of rotor integrity based upon the results of a boresonic examination of near-bore defects. Concurrently an advanced boresonic examination system (TREES), designed to acquire data automatically for lifetime analysis, was developed and delivered to the maintenance shop of a major utility. This system and a semi-automated, state-of-the-art system (BUCS) were evaluated on two retired rotors as part of the Task 2 effort. A modified nonproprietary version of STRAP, called SAFER, is now available for rotor lifetime prediction analysis. STRAP and SAFER share a common fracture analysis postprocessor for rapid evaluation of either conventional boresonic amplitude data or TREES cell data. The final version of this postprocessor contains general stress intensity correlations for elliptical cracks in a radial stress gradient and provision for elastic-plastic instability of the ligament between an imbedded crack and the bore surface. Both linear elastic and ligament rupture models were developed for rapid analysis of linkup within three-dimensional clusters of defects. Bore stress-rupture criteria are included, but a creep-fatigue crack growth data base is not available. Physical and mechanical properties of air-melt 1CrMoV forgings are built into the program; however, only bounding values of fracture toughness versus temperature are available. Owing to the lack of data regarding the probability of flaw detection for the boresonic systems and of quantitative verification of the flaw linkup analysis, automatic evlauation of boresonic results is not recommended, and the lifetime prediction system is currently restricted to conservative, deterministic analysis of specified flaw geometries

  9. Assimilation of satellite data to increase the reliability of the wave predictions in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

    2015-04-01

    . The results provided by the present work show that the data assimilation approach implemented leads to a significant enhancement of the reliability of the numerical wave predictions. The work is still ongoing, and besides the fact that all the satellites are now considered for assimilation, the scheme is also adapted in order to be able to provide forecast products. Keywords: Black Sea, wave models, SWAN, data assimilation, satellite data. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of National Education, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0089 (project DAMWAVE).

  10. Preliminary Computational Analysis of the (HIRENASD) Configuration in Preparation for the Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chwalowski, Pawel; Florance, Jennifer P.; Heeg, Jennifer; Wieseman, Carol D.; Perry, Boyd P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents preliminary computational aeroelastic analysis results generated in preparation for the first Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop (AePW). These results were produced using FUN3D software developed at NASA Langley and are compared against the experimental data generated during the HIgh REynolds Number Aero- Structural Dynamics (HIRENASD) Project. The HIRENASD wind-tunnel model was tested in the European Transonic Windtunnel in 2006 by Aachen University0s Department of Mechanics with funding from the German Research Foundation. The computational effort discussed here was performed (1) to obtain a preliminary assessment of the ability of the FUN3D code to accurately compute physical quantities experimentally measured on the HIRENASD model and (2) to translate the lessons learned from the FUN3D analysis of HIRENASD into a set of initial guidelines for the first AePW, which includes test cases for the HIRENASD model and its experimental data set. This paper compares the computational and experimental results obtained at Mach 0.8 for a Reynolds number of 7 million based on chord, corresponding to the HIRENASD test conditions No. 132 and No. 159. Aerodynamic loads and static aeroelastic displacements are compared at two levels of the grid resolution. Harmonic perturbation numerical results are compared with the experimental data using the magnitude and phase relationship between pressure coefficients and displacement. A dynamic aeroelastic numerical calculation is presented at one wind-tunnel condition in the form of the time history of the generalized displacements. Additional FUN3D validation results are also presented for the AGARD 445.6 wing data set. This wing was tested in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel and is commonly used in the preliminary benchmarking of computational aeroelastic software.

  11. HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein?protein interactions from more than 100 species

    OpenAIRE

    L?pez, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

    2015-01-01

    HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein?protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein?protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of p...

  12. A pediatric FOUR score coma scale: interrater reliability and predictive validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaikowski, Brianna L; Liang, Hong; Stewart, C Todd

    2014-04-01

    The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a coma scale that consists of four components (eye and motor response, brainstem reflexes, and respiration). It was originally validated among the adult population and recently in a pediatric population. To enhance clinical assessment of pediatric intensive care unit patients, including those intubated and/or sedated, at our children's hospital, we modified the FOUR Score Scale for this population. This modified scale would provide many of the same advantages as the original, such as interrater reliability, simplicity, and elimination of the verbal component that is not compatible with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), creating a more valuable neurological assessment tool for the nursing community. Our goal was to potentially provide greater information than the formally used GCS when assessing critically ill, neurologically impaired patients, including those sedated and/or intubated. Experienced pediatric intensive care unit nurses were trained as "expert raters." Two different nurses assessed each subject using the Pediatric FOUR Score Scale (PFSS), GCS, and Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale at three different time points. Data were compared with the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category (PCPC) assessed by another nurse. Our hypothesis was that the PFSS and PCPC should highly correlate and the GCS and PCPC should correlate lower. Study results show that the PFSS is excellent for interrater reliability for trained nurse-rater pairs and prediction of poor outcome and in-hospital mortality, under various situations, but there were no statistically significant differences between the PFSS and the GCS. However, the PFSS does have the potential to provide greater neurological assessment in the intubated and/or sedated patient based on the outcomes of our study.

  13. Improving Predictions with Reliable Extrapolation Schemes and Better Understanding of Factorization

    Science.gov (United States)

    More, Sushant N.

    New insights into the inter-nucleon interactions, developments in many-body technology, and the surge in computational capabilities has led to phenomenal progress in low-energy nuclear physics in the past few years. Nonetheless, many calculations still lack a robust uncertainty quantification which is essential for making reliable predictions. In this work we investigate two distinct sources of uncertainty and develop ways to account for them. Harmonic oscillator basis expansions are widely used in ab-initio nuclear structure calculations. Finite computational resources usually require that the basis be truncated before observables are fully converged, necessitating reliable extrapolation schemes. It has been demonstrated recently that errors introduced from basis truncation can be taken into account by focusing on the infrared and ultraviolet cutoffs induced by a truncated basis. We show that a finite oscillator basis effectively imposes a hard-wall boundary condition in coordinate space. We accurately determine the position of the hard-wall as a function of oscillator space parameters, derive infrared extrapolation formulas for the energy and other observables, and discuss the extension of this approach to higher angular momentum and to other localized bases. We exploit the duality of the harmonic oscillator to account for the errors introduced by a finite ultraviolet cutoff. Nucleon knockout reactions have been widely used to study and understand nuclear properties. Such an analysis implicitly assumes that the effects of the probe can be separated from the physics of the target nucleus. This factorization between nuclear structure and reaction components depends on the renormalization scale and scheme, and has not been well understood. But it is potentially critical for interpreting experiments and for extracting process-independent nuclear properties. We use a class of unitary transformations called the similarity renormalization group (SRG) transformations to

  14. Prediction of the Main Engine Power of a New Container Ship at the Preliminary Design Stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepowski, Tomasz

    2017-06-01

    The paper presents mathematical relationships that allow us to forecast the estimated main engine power of new container ships, based on data concerning vessels built in 2005-2015. The presented approximations allow us to estimate the engine power based on the length between perpendiculars and the number of containers the ship will carry. The approximations were developed using simple linear regression and multivariate linear regression analysis. The presented relations have practical application for estimation of container ship engine power needed in preliminary parametric design of the ship. It follows from the above that the use of multiple linear regression to predict the main engine power of a container ship brings more accurate solutions than simple linear regression.

  15. Predicting visual semantic descriptive terms from radiological image data: preliminary results with liver lesions in CT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depeursinge, Adrien; Kurtz, Camille; Beaulieu, Christopher; Napel, Sandy; Rubin, Daniel

    2014-08-01

    We describe a framework to model visual semantics of liver lesions in CT images in order to predict the visual semantic terms (VST) reported by radiologists in describing these lesions. Computational models of VST are learned from image data using linear combinations of high-order steerable Riesz wavelets and support vector machines (SVM). In a first step, these models are used to predict the presence of each semantic term that describes liver lesions. In a second step, the distances between all VST models are calculated to establish a nonhierarchical computationally-derived ontology of VST containing inter-term synonymy and complementarity. A preliminary evaluation of the proposed framework was carried out using 74 liver lesions annotated with a set of 18 VSTs from the RadLex ontology. A leave-one-patient-out cross-validation resulted in an average area under the ROC curve of 0.853 for predicting the presence of each VST. The proposed framework is expected to foster human-computer synergies for the interpretation of radiological images while using rotation-covariant computational models of VSTs to 1) quantify their local likelihood and 2) explicitly link them with pixel-based image content in the context of a given imaging domain.

  16. Rock mass evaluation for predicting tunnel constructability in the preliminary investigation stage. Phenomena causing difficult tunneling and rockburst prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Koichi; Sawada, Masataka; Inohara, Yoshiki; Shidahara, Takumi; Hatano, Teruyoshi

    2011-01-01

    For the selection of the Detailed Investigation Areas for HLW disposal, predicting the tunnel constructability is one of the requirements together with assessing long-term safety. This report is the 1st of the three papers dealing with the evaluation of tunnel constructability. This paper deals with the geological factors relating to difficult tunneling such as squeezing, rockburst, and others. Also it deals with the prediction of rockburst. The 2nd paper will deal with the prediction of squeezing. The 3rd paper deals with the engineering characteristics of rock mass through rock mass classification. This paper about difficult tunneling has been based upon analysis of more than 500 tunneling reports about 280 tunnel constructions. The causes of difficult tunneling are related to (1) underground water, (2) mechanical properties of the rock, or (3) others such as gas. The geological factors for excessive water inflow are porous volcanic product of Quarternary, fault crush zone and hydrothermally altered zone of Green Tuff area, and degenerated mixed rock in accretionary complex. The geological factors for squeezing are solfataric clay at Quarternary volcanic zone, fault crush zone and hydrothermally altered zone of Green Tuff area, mudstone and fault crush zone of sedimentary rock of Neogene and later. Information useful for predicting rockburst has been gathered from previous reports. In the preliminary investigation stage, geological survey, geophysical survey and borehole survey from the surface are the source of information. Therefore rock type, P-wave velocity from seismic exploration and in-situ rock stress from hydrofracturing have been considered. Majority of rockburst events occurred at granitic rock, excluding coal mine where different kind of rockburst occurred at pillars. And P-wave velocity was around 5 km/s at the rock of rockburst events. Horizontal maximum and minimum stresses SH and Sh have been tested as a criterion for rockburst. It has been

  17. HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein-protein interactions from more than 100 species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

    2015-01-01

    HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein-protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein-protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of physical, genetic and predicted interactions. Automated integration of interactions is further complicated by varying levels of accuracy of database content and lack of adherence to standard formats. To address these issues, the latest version of HitPredict provides a manually curated dataset of 398 696 physical associations between 70 808 proteins from 105 species. Manual confirmation was used to resolve all issues encountered during data integration. For improved reliability assessment, this version combines a new score derived from the experimental information of the interactions with the original score based on the features of the interacting proteins. The combined interaction score performs better than either of the individual scores in HitPredict as well as the reliability score of another similar database. HitPredict provides a web interface to search proteins and visualize their interactions, and the data can be downloaded for offline analysis. Data usability has been enhanced by mapping protein identifiers across multiple reference databases. Thus, the latest version of HitPredict provides a significantly larger, more reliable and usable dataset of protein-protein interactions from several species for the study of gene groups. Database URL: http://hintdb.hgc.jp/htp. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

  18. Software reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bendell, A

    1986-01-01

    Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

  19. Reliability and Lifetime Prediction of Remote Phosphor Plates in Solid-State Lighting Applications Using Accelerated Degradation Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yazdan Mehr, M.; van Driel, W.D.; Zhang, G.Q.

    2015-01-01

    A methodology, based on accelerated degradation testing, is developed to predict the lifetime of remote phosphor plates used in solid-state lighting (SSL) applications. Both thermal stress and light intensity are used to accelerate degradation reaction in remote phosphor plates. A reliability model,

  20. Preliminary testing of the reliability and feasibility of SAGE: a system to measure and score engagement with and use of research in health policies and programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makkar, Steve R; Williamson, Anna; D'Este, Catherine; Redman, Sally

    2017-12-19

    Few measures of research use in health policymaking are available, and the reliability of such measures has yet to be evaluated. A new measure called the Staff Assessment of Engagement with Evidence (SAGE) incorporates an interview that explores policymakers' research use within discrete policy documents and a scoring tool that quantifies the extent of policymakers' research use based on the interview transcript and analysis of the policy document itself. We aimed to conduct a preliminary investigation of the usability, sensitivity, and reliability of the scoring tool in measuring research use by policymakers. Nine experts in health policy research and two independent coders were recruited. Each expert used the scoring tool to rate a random selection of 20 interview transcripts, and each independent coder rated 60 transcripts. The distribution of scores among experts was examined, and then, interrater reliability was tested within and between the experts and independent coders. Average- and single-measure reliability coefficients were computed for each SAGE subscales. Experts' scores ranged from the limited to extensive scoring bracket for all subscales. Experts as a group also exhibited at least a fair level of interrater agreement across all subscales. Single-measure reliability was at least fair except for three subscales: Relevance Appraisal, Conceptual Use, and Instrumental Use. Average- and single-measure reliability among independent coders was good to excellent for all subscales. Finally, reliability between experts and independent coders was fair to excellent for all subscales. Among experts, the scoring tool was comprehensible, usable, and sensitive to discriminate between documents with varying degrees of research use. Secondly, the scoring tool yielded scores with good reliability among the independent coders. There was greater variability among experts, although as a group, the tool was fairly reliable. The alignment between experts' and independent

  1. [Reliability of the PROFUND index to predict 4-year mortality in polypathological patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez-Manglano, Jesús; Del Corral Beamonte, Esther; Ramos Ibáñez, Rosa; Lambán Aranda, María Pilar; Toyas Miazza, Carla; Rodero Roldán, María Del Mar; Ortiz Domingo, Concepción; Munilla López, Eulalia; de Escalante Yangüela, Begoña

    2016-09-16

    To determine the usefullness of the PROFUND index to assess the risk of global death after 4 years in polypathological patients. Multicenter prospective cohort (Internal Medicine and Geriatrics) study. Polypathological patients admitted between March 1st and June 30th 2011 were included. For each patient, data concerning age, sex, living at home or in a nursing residence, polypathology categories, Charlson, Barthel and Lawton-Brody indexes, Pfeiffer questionnaire, socio-familial Gijon scale, delirium, number of drugs, hemoglobin and creatinine values were gathered, and the PROFUND index was calculated. The follow-up lasted 4 years. We included 441 patients, 324 from Internal Medicine and 117 from Geriatrics, with a mean age of 80.9 (8.7) years. Of them, 245 (55.6%) were women. Heart (62.7%), neurological (41.4%) and respiratory (37.3%) diseases were the most frequent. Geriatrics inpatients were older and more dependants and presented greater cognitive deterioration. After 4 years, 335 (76%) patients died. Mortality was associated with age, dyspnoea, Barthel index<60, delirium, advanced neoplasia and≥4 admissions in the last year. The area under the curve of the PROFUND index was 0.748, 95% CI 0.689-0.806, P<.001 in Internal Medicine and 0.517, 95% CI 0.369-0.666, P=.818 in Geriatrics patients, respectively. The PROFUND index is a reliable tool for predicting long-term global mortality in polypathological patients from Internal Medicine but not from Geriatrics departments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Complex proximal humerus fractures: Hertel's criteria reliability to predict head necrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campochiaro, G; Rebuzzi, M; Baudi, P; Catani, F

    2015-09-01

    The risk of post-traumatic humeral head avascular necrosis (AVN), regardless of the treatment, has a high reported incidence. In 2004, Hertel et al. stated that the most relevant predictors of ischemia after intracapsular fracture treated with osteosynthesis are the calcar length, medial hinge integrity and some specific fracture types. Based on Hertel's model, the purpose of this study is to evaluate both its reliability and weaknesses in our series of 267 fractures, assessing how the anatomical configuration of fracture, the quality of reduction and its maintenance were predictive of osteonecrosis development, and so to suggest a treatment choice algorithm. A retrospective study, level of evidence IV, was conducted to duly assess the radiographic features of 267 fractures treated from 2004 to 2010 following Hertel's criteria treated with open reduction and internal fixation by angular stability plates and screws. The average age was 65.2 years. The average follow-up was 28.3 ± 17.0 months. The percentage of AVN, the quality and maintenance of reduction obtained during surgery were evaluated. The AVN incidence was 3.7 %. No significant correlation with gender, age and fracture type was found. At the last follow-up X-ray, only 30 % presented all Hertel's good predictors in the AVN group, 4.7 % in the non-AVN group (p AVN group, it was poor in 50 %; while in the non-AVN group, it was poor in 3.4 % (p AVN were symptomatic, and three needed a second surgery. Hertel's criteria are important in the surgical planning, but they are not sufficient: an accurate evaluation of the calcar area fracture in three planes is required. All fractures involving calcar area should be studied with CT.

  3. An overview of the reliability prediction related aspects of high power IGBTs in wind power applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busca, Christian; Teodorescu, Remus; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2011-01-01

    Reliability is becoming more and more important as the size and number of installed Wind Turbines (WTs) increases. Very high reliability is especially important for offshore WTs because the maintenance and repair of such WTs in case of failures can be very expensive. WT manufacturers need...

  4. Pelvic Incidence: A Predictive Factor for Three-Dimensional Acetabular Orientation—A Preliminary Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Boulay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Acetabular cup orientation (inclination and anteversion is a fundamental topic in orthopaedics and depends on pelvis tilt (positional parameter emphasising the notion of a safe range of pelvis tilt. The hypothesis was that pelvic incidence (morphologic parameter could yield a more accurate and reliable assessment than pelvis tilt. The aim was to find out a predictive equation of acetabular 3D orientation parameters which were determined by pelvic incidence to include in the model. The second aim was to consider the asymmetry between the right and left acetabulae. Twelve pelvic anatomic specimens were measured with an electromagnetic Fastrak system (Polhemus Society providing 3D position of anatomical landmarks to allow measurement of acetabular and pelvic parameters. Acetabulum and pelvis data were correlated by a Spearman matrix. A robust linear regression analysis provided prediction of acetabulum axes. The orientation of each acetabulum could be predicted by the incidence. The incidence is correlated with the morphology of acetabula. The asymmetry of the acetabular roof was correlated with pelvic incidence. This study allowed analysis of relationships of acetabular orientation and pelvic incidence. Pelvic incidence (morphologic parameter could determine the safe range of pelvis tilt (positional parameter for an individual and not a group.

  5. Reliability Evaluation on Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 617 for a Very High Temperature Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Hong, Sung-Deok; Kim, Yong-Wan; Park, Jae-Young; Kim, Seon-Jin

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates the reliability of creep rupture life under service conditions of Alloy 617, which is considered as one of the candidate materials for use in a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) system. A Z-parameter, which represents the deviation of creep rupture data from the master curve, was used for the reliability analysis of the creep rupture data of Alloy 617. A Service-condition Creep Rupture Interference (SCRI) model, which can consider both the scattering of the creep rupture data and the fluctuations of temperature and stress under any service conditions, was also used for evaluating the reliability of creep rupture life. The statistical analysis showed that the scattering of creep rupture data based on Z-parameter was supported by normal distribution. The values of reliability decreased rapidly with increasing amplitudes of temperature and stress fluctuations. The results established that the reliability decreased with an increasing service time.

  6. The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale

  7. Nonparametric predictive inference for reliability of a k-out-of-m:G system with multiple component types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aboalkhair, Ahmad M.; Coolen, Frank P.A.; MacPhee, Iain M.

    2014-01-01

    Nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability has recently been presented, with specific focus on k-out-of-m:G systems. The reliability of systems is quantified by lower and upper probabilities of system functioning, given binary test results on components, taking uncertainty about component functioning and indeterminacy due to limited test information explicitly into account. Thus far, systems considered were series configurations of subsystems, with each subsystem i a k i -out-of-m i :G system which consisted of only one type of components. Key results are briefly summarized in this paper, and as an important generalization new results are presented for a single k-out-of-m:G system consisting of components of multiple types. The important aspects of redundancy and diversity for such systems are discussed. - Highlights: • New results on nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability. • Prediction of system reliability based on test data for components. • New insights on system redundancy optimization and diversity. • Components that appear inferior in tests may be included to enhance redundancy

  8. The occipitofrontal circumference: reliable prediction of the intracranial volume in children with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijken, Bianca Francisca Maria; den Ottelander, Bianca Kelly; van Veelen, Marie-Lise Charlotte; Lequin, Maarten Hans; Mathijssen, Irene Margreet Jacqueline

    2015-05-01

    OBJECT Patients with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis are characterized by the premature fusion of one or more cranial sutures. These patients are at risk for developing elevated intracranial pressure (ICP). There are several factors known to contribute to elevated ICP in these patients, including craniocerebral disproportion, hydrocephalus, venous hypertension, and obstructive sleep apnea. However, the causal mechanism is unknown, and patients develop elevated ICP even after skull surgery. In clinical practice, the occipitofrontal circumference (OFC) is used as an indirect measure for intracranial volume (ICV), to evaluate skull growth. However, it remains unknown whether OFC is a reliable predictor of ICV in patients with a severe skull deformity. Therefore, in this study the authors evaluated the relation between ICV and OFC. METHODS Eighty-four CT scans obtained in 69 patients with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis treated at the Erasmus University Medical Center-Sophia Children's Hospital were included. The ICV was calculated based on CT scans by using autosegmentation with an HU threshold CT scans and OFC measurements were matched based on a maximum amount of the time that was allowed between these examinations, which was dependent on age. A Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to evaluate the correlations between OFC and ICV. The predictive value of OFC, age, and sex on ICV was then further evaluated using a univariate linear mixed model. The significant factors in the univariate analysis were subsequently entered in a multivariate mixed model. RESULTS The correlations found between OFC and ICV were r = 0.908 for the total group (p < 0.001), r = 0.981 for Apert (p < 0.001), r = 0.867 for Crouzon-Pfeiffer (p < 0.001), r = 0.989 for Muenke (p < 0.001), r = 0.858 for Saethre- Chotzen syndrome (p = 0.001), and r = 0.917 for complex craniosynostosis (p < 0.001). Age and OFC were significant predictors of ICV in the univariate linear mixed

  9. A Tutorial on Nonlinear Time-Series Data Mining in Engineering Asset Health and Reliability Prediction: Concepts, Models, and Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Dong

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of engineering asset management is to optimize assets service delivery potential and to minimize the related risks and costs over their entire life through the development and application of asset health and usage management in which the health and reliability prediction plays an important role. In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset is generally described as monitored nonlinear time-series data and subject to high levels of uncertainty and unpredictability. It has been proved that application of data mining techniques is very useful for extracting relevant features which can be used as parameters for assets diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, a tutorial on nonlinear time-series data mining in engineering asset health and reliability prediction is given. Besides that an overview on health and reliability prediction techniques for engineering assets is covered, this tutorial will focus on concepts, models, algorithms, and applications of hidden Markov models (HMMs and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs in engineering asset health prognosis, which are representatives of recent engineering asset health prediction techniques.

  10. Prediction on fracture risk of femur with Osteogenesis Imperfecta using finite element models: Preliminary study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanna, S. B. C.; Basaruddin, K. S.; Mat Som, M. H.; Mohamad Hashim, M. S.; Daud, R.; Majid, M. S. Abdul; Sulaiman, A. R.

    2017-10-01

    Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a genetic disease which affecting the bone geometry. In a severe case, this disease can cause death to patients. The main issue of this disease is the prediction on bone fracture by the orthopaedic surgeons. The resistance of the bone to withstand the force before the bones fracture often become the main concern. Therefore, the objective of the present preliminary study was to investigate the fracture risk associated with OI bone, particularly in femur, when subjected to the self-weight. Finite element (FEA) was employed to reconstruct the OI bone model and analyse the mechanical stress response of femur before it fractures. Ten deformed models with different severity of OI bones were developed and the force that represents patient self-weight was applied to the reconstructed models in static analysis. Stress and fracture risk were observed and analysed throughout the simulation. None of the deformed model were observed experienced fracture. The fracture risk increased with increased severity of the deformed bone. The results showed that all deformed femur models were able to bear the force without experienced fracture when subjected to only the self-weight.

  11. Reliability prediction of large fuel cell stack based on structure stress analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L. F.; Liu, B.; Wu, C. W.

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability of Proton Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stack by designing the clamping force and the thickness difference between the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) and the gasket. The stack reliability is directly determined by the component reliability, which is affected by the material property and contact stress. The component contact stress is a random variable because it is usually affected by many uncertain factors in the production and clamping process. We have investigated the influences of parameter variation coefficient on the probability distribution of contact stress using the equivalent stiffness model and the first-order second moment method. The optimal contact stress to make the component stay in the highest level reliability is obtained by the stress-strength interference model. To obtain the optimal contact stress between the contact components, the optimal thickness of the component and the stack clamping force are optimally designed. Finally, a detailed description is given how to design the MEA and gasket dimensions to obtain the highest stack reliability. This work can provide a valuable guidance in the design of stack structure for a high reliability of fuel cell stack.

  12. [Social Avoidance and Distress Scale (SAD) and Fear of Negative Evaluation Scale (FNE)--reliability and the preliminary assessment of validity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobański, Jerzy A; Klasa, Katarzyna; Rutkowski, Krzysztof; Dembińska, Edyta; Müldner-Nieckowski, Łukasz; Cyranka, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    Assessment of reliability, cross-validity and usefulness in everyday clinical practice of two related tools: Social Avoidance and Distress Scale (SAD) and Fear of Negative Evaluation Scale (FNE). Analysis of tests results of 453 females and 172 males diagnosed in the years 2008-2010 in the Outpatient Clinic for Neurotic and Behavioral Disorders of the Cracow University Hospital, including, inter alia, results of the questionnaires SAD and FNE. The scales have been, with the consent of their authors (R. Friend) and the copyright holder (APA), translated into Polish and back-translated. Subjects also completed the symptom checklist KO '0'(n = 512), and neurotic personality questionnaire KON-2006 (n = 505), as well as the NEO-PI-R personality inventory (n = 46). The reliability and cross-validity coefficients of Polish versions were assessed in the patient population and their results were compared with those of the group of 75 medical students. The translation was verified by retranslation. The reliability coefficients of Polish version of the SAD and FNE scales turned out to be high--Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.94 for both scales, Guttman's split-half reliability coefficient 0.93. Correlations with symptom checklist KO '0 'and neurotic personality questionnaire KON-2006, as well as with the NEO -PI-R personality inventory were significant and indicate a good cross-validity of the analyzed tools. The average results in the patient population for both scales were significantly higher than the results in the preliminary control group of medical students. Polish versions of SAD and FNE questionnaires, like their other translations from English, proved to be reliable and have a high cross-validity with other original Polish tools used in the diagnosis of neurotic disorders, which allows to recommend them to be used in further studies, also in comparing healthy persons with those suffering from a variety of neurotic disorders.

  13. Procalcitonin for the early prediction of renal parenchymal involvement in children with UTI: preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotoula, Aggeliki; Gardikis, Stefanos; Tsalkidis, Aggelos; Mantadakis, Elpis; Zissimopoulos, Athanassios; Kambouri, Katerina; Deftereos, Savvas; Tripsianis, Gregorios; Manolas, Konstantinos; Chatzimichael, Athanassios; Vaos, George

    2009-01-01

    In order to establish the most reliable marker for distinguishing urinary tract infections (UTI) with and without renal parenchymal involvement (RPI), we recorded the clinical features and admission leukocyte count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and serum procalcitonin (PCT) in 57 children (including 43 girls) aged 2-108 months admitted with a first episode of UTI. RPI was evaluated by Tc-99m dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) scintigraphy within 7 days of admission. To establish cut-off points for ESR, CRP, and PCT, we used receiver operating characteristics curves and compared the area under the curve for ESR, CRP, and PCT. Twenty-seven children were diagnosed as having RPI based on positive renal scintigraphy. A body temperature of >38 degrees C, a history of diarrhea, and poor oral intake were more common in patients with RPI. ESR, CRP, and PCT, but not leukocyte count, were significantly higher in patients with RPI (P UTI than ESR and CRP. Using a cut-off value of 0.85 ng/ml, PCT had the best performance, with sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 89%, 97%, 96%, and 91% respectively. Serum PCT is a better marker than ESR, CRP, and leukocyte count for the early prediction of RPI in children with a first episode of UTI.

  14. Preliminary findings on the reliability and validity of the Cantonese Birmingham Cognitive Screen in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xiaoping; Chen, Haobo; Bickerton, Wai-Ling; Lau, Johnny King Lam; Kong, Anthony Pak Hin; Rotshtein, Pia; Guo, Aihua; Hu, Jianxi; Humphreys, Glyn W

    2015-01-01

    There are no currently effective cognitive assessment tools for patients who have suffered stroke in the People's Republic of China. The Birmingham Cognitive Screen (BCoS) has been shown to be a promising tool for revealing patients' poststroke cognitive deficits in specific domains, which facilitates more individually designed rehabilitation in the long run. Hence we examined the reliability and validity of a Cantonese version BCoS in patients with acute ischemic stroke, in Guangzhou. A total of 98 patients with acute ischemic stroke were assessed with the Cantonese version of the BCoS, and an additional 133 healthy individuals were recruited as controls. Apart from the BCoS, the patients also completed a number of external cognitive tests, including the Montreal Cognitive Assessment Test (MoCA), Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), Albert's cancellation test, the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test, and six gesture matching tasks. Cutoff scores for failing each subtest, ie, deficits, were computed based on the performance of the controls. The validity and reliability of the Cantonese BCoS were examined, as well as interrater and test-retest reliability. We also compared the proportions of cases being classified as deficits in controlled attention, memory, character writing, and praxis, between patients with and without spoken language impairment. Analyses showed high test-retest reliability and agreement across independent raters on the qualitative aspects of measurement. Significant correlations were observed between the subtests of the Cantonese BCoS and the other external cognitive tests, providing evidence for convergent validity of the Cantonese BCoS. The screen was also able to generate measures of cognitive functions that were relatively uncontaminated by the presence of aphasia. This study suggests good reliability and validity of the Cantonese version of the BCoS. The Cantonese BCoS is a very promising tool for the detection of cognitive problems in

  15. Preliminary findings on the reliability and validity of the Cantonese Birmingham Cognitive Screen in patients with acute ischemic stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan X

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Xiaoping Pan,1,* Haobo Chen,1,2,* Wai-Ling Bickerton,2 Johnny King Lam Lau,2 Anthony Pak Hin Kong,3 Pia Rotshtein,2 Aihua Guo,1 Jianxi Hu,1 Glyn W Humphreys4 1Department of Neurology, Guangzhou First People’s Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; 3Department of Communication Sciences and Disorders, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA; 4Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: There are no currently effective cognitive assessment tools for patients who have suffered stroke in the People’s Republic of China. The Birmingham Cognitive Screen (BCoS has been shown to be a promising tool for revealing patients’ poststroke cognitive deficits in specific domains, which facilitates more individually designed rehabilitation in the long run. Hence we examined the reliability and validity of a Cantonese version BCoS in patients with acute ischemic stroke, in Guangzhou.Method: A total of 98 patients with acute ischemic stroke were assessed with the Cantonese version of the BCoS, and an additional 133 healthy individuals were recruited as controls. Apart from the BCoS, the patients also completed a number of external cognitive tests, including the Montreal Cognitive Assessment Test (MoCA, Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE, Albert’s cancellation test, the Rey–Osterrieth Complex Figure Test, and six gesture matching tasks. Cutoff scores for failing each subtest, ie, deficits, were computed based on the performance of the controls. The validity and reliability of the Cantonese BCoS were examined, as well as interrater and test–retest reliability. We also compared the proportions of cases being classified as deficits in controlled attention, memory, character writing, and praxis, between patients with and without spoken language impairment

  16. Dataset size and composition impact the reliability of performance benchmarks for peptide-MHC binding predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Yohan; Sidney, John; Buus, Søren

    2014-01-01

    Background: It is important to accurately determine the performance of peptide: MHC binding predictions, as this enables users to compare and choose between different prediction methods and provides estimates of the expected error rate. Two common approaches to determine prediction performance...... are cross-validation, in which all available data are iteratively split into training and testing data, and the use of blind sets generated separately from the data used to construct the predictive method. In the present study, we have compared cross-validated prediction performances generated on our last...

  17. Evaluating Proposed Investments in Power System Reliability and Resilience: Preliminary Results from Interviews with Public Utility Commission Staff

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaCommare, Kristina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Larsen, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Eto, Joseph [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Policymakers and regulatory agencies are expressing renewed interest in the reliability and resilience of the U.S. electric power system in large part due to growing recognition of the challenges posed by climate change, extreme weather events, and other emerging threats. Unfortunately, there has been little or no consolidated information in the public domain describing how public utility/service commission (PUC) staff evaluate the economics of proposed investments in the resilience of the power system. Having more consolidated information would give policymakers a better understanding of how different state regulatory entities across the U.S. make economic decisions pertaining to reliability/resiliency. To help address this, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) was tasked by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA) to conduct an initial set of interviews with PUC staff to learn more about how proposed utility investments in reliability/resilience are being evaluated from an economics perspective. LBNL conducted structured interviews in late May-early June 2016 with staff from the following PUCs: Washington D.C. (DCPSC), Florida (FPSC), and California (CPUC).

  18. Predicting Flow Breakdown Probability and Duration in Stochastic Network Models: Impact on Travel Time Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Jing [ORNL; Mahmassani, Hani S. [Northwestern University, Evanston

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to produce random flow breakdown endogenously in a mesoscopic operational model, by capturing breakdown probability and duration. Based on previous research findings that probability of flow breakdown can be represented as a function of flow rate and the duration can be characterized by a hazard model. By generating random flow breakdown at various levels and capturing the traffic characteristics at the onset of the breakdown, the stochastic network simulation model provides a tool for evaluating travel time variability. The proposed model can be used for (1) providing reliability related traveler information; (2) designing ITS (intelligent transportation systems) strategies to improve reliability; and (3) evaluating reliability-related performance measures of the system.

  19. An overview of the IAEA Safety Series on procedures for evaluating the reliability of predictions made by environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.W.; Hofer, E.

    1987-10-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing a Safety Series publication on practical approaches for evaluating the reliability of the predictions made by environmental radiological assessment models. This publication identifies factors that affect the reliability of these predictions and discusses methods for quantifying uncertainty. Emphasis is placed on understanding the quantity of interest specified by the assessment question and distinguishing between stochastic variability and lack of knowledge about either the true value or the true distribution of values for quantity of interest. Among the many approaches discussed, model testing using independent data sets (model validation) is considered the best method for evaluating the accuracy in model predictions. Analytical and numerical methods for propagating the uncertainties in model parameters are presented and the strengths and weaknesses of model intercomparison exercises are also discussed. It is recognized that subjective judgment is employed throughout the entire modelling process, and quantitative reliability statements must be subjectively obtained when models are applied to different situations from those under which they have been tested. (6 refs.)

  20. Safety and reliability in the 90s: will past experience or prediction meet our needs?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, M.H.; Cox, R.F.

    1990-01-01

    Twenty-six papers are presented in the proceedings of the 1990 Safety and Reliability Society Symposium. The papers selected provide current thinking on improved methods for identification, quantification and management of risks based on the safety culture developed across a range of industries during the last decade. In particular organizational and management factors feature in a large number of the papers. Two papers on the safety of all the operating plants at Sellafield's irradiated nuclear fuel handling and reprocessing site and the selection of field component reliability data for use in nuclear safety studies are selected and indexed separately. (author)

  1. Feasibility, Reliability and Predictive Value Of In-Ambulance Heart Rate Variability Registration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yperzeele, Laetitia; van Hooff, Robbert-Jan; De Smedt, Ann; Nagels, Guy; Hubloue, Ives; De Keyser, Jacques; Brouns, Raf

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart rate variability (HRV) is a parameter of autonomic nervous system function. A decrease of HRV has been associated with disease severity, risk of complications and prognosis in several conditions. Objective We aim to investigate the feasibility and the reliability of in-ambulance HRV

  2. Reliabilities of genomic prediction using combined reference data of the Nordic Red dairy cattle production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøndum, Rasmus Froberg; Rius-Vilarrasa, E; Strandén, I

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the possibility of increasing the reliability of direct genomic values (DGV) by combining reference opulations. The data were from 3,735 bulls from Danish, Swedish, and Finnish Red dairy cattle populations. Single nucleotide polymorphism markers were fitted as random varia...

  3. An Early Years Toolbox for Assessing Early Executive Function, Language, Self-Regulation, and Social Development: Validity, Reliability, and Preliminary Norms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Steven J; Melhuish, Edward

    2017-06-01

    Several methods of assessing executive function (EF), self-regulation, language development, and social development in young children have been developed over previous decades. Yet new technologies make available methods of assessment not previously considered. In resolving conceptual and pragmatic limitations of existing tools, the Early Years Toolbox (EYT) offers substantial advantages for early assessment of language, EF, self-regulation, and social development. In the current study, results of our large-scale administration of this toolbox to 1,764 preschool and early primary school students indicated very good reliability, convergent validity with existing measures, and developmental sensitivity. Results were also suggestive of better capture of children's emerging abilities relative to comparison measures. Preliminary norms are presented, showing a clear developmental trajectory across half-year age groups. The accessibility of the EYT, as well as its advantages over existing measures, offers considerably enhanced opportunities for objective measurement of young children's abilities to enable research and educational applications.

  4. An Introduction To Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Kyoung Su

    1993-08-01

    This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.

  5. Reliability of nine programs of topological predictions and their application to integral membrane channel and carrier proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Abhinay; Cho, Jaehoon; Ling, Sam; Reddy, Vamsee; Shlykov, Maksim; Saier, Milton H

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated topological predictions for nine different programs, HMMTOP, TMHMM, SVMTOP, DAS, SOSUI, TOPCONS, PHOBIUS, MEMSAT-SVM (hereinafter referred to as MEMSAT), and SPOCTOPUS. These programs were first evaluated using four large topologically well-defined families of secondary transporters, and the three best programs were further evaluated using topologically more diverse families of channels and carriers. In the initial studies, the order of accuracy was: SPOCTOPUS > MEMSAT > HMMTOP > TOPCONS > PHOBIUS > TMHMM > SVMTOP > DAS > SOSUI. Some families, such as the Sugar Porter Family (2.A.1.1) of the Major Facilitator Superfamily (MFS; TC #2.A.1) and the Amino Acid/Polyamine/Organocation (APC) Family (TC #2.A.3), were correctly predicted with high accuracy while others, such as the Mitochondrial Carrier (MC) (TC #2.A.29) and the K(+) transporter (Trk) families (TC #2.A.38), were predicted with much lower accuracy. For small, topologically homogeneous families, SPOCTOPUS and MEMSAT were generally most reliable, while with large, more diverse superfamilies, HMMTOP often proved to have the greatest prediction accuracy. We next developed a novel program, TM-STATS, that tabulates HMMTOP, SPOCTOPUS or MEMSAT-based topological predictions for any subdivision (class, subclass, superfamily, family, subfamily, or any combination of these) of the Transporter Classification Database (TCDB; www.tcdb.org) and examined the following subclasses: α-type channel proteins (TC subclasses 1.A and 1.E), secreted pore-forming toxins (TC subclass 1.C) and secondary carriers (subclass 2.A). Histograms were generated for each of these subclasses, and the results were analyzed according to subclass, family and protein. The results provide an update of topological predictions for integral membrane transport proteins as well as guides for the development of more reliable topological prediction programs, taking family-specific characteristics into account. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  6. Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

    2006-01-01

    Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

  7. Climatic Reliability of Electronics: Early Prediction and Control of Contamination and humidity effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verdingovas, Vadimas

    were to a significant extent guided by the climatic reliability issues the electronic companies are currently facing. The research in this thesis is focused on the synergistic effects of process related contamination, humidity, potential bias, and PCBA design related aspects, while various tests...... assuming parasitic circuit due to water layer formation on the PCBA surface. The chapters 2-5 review the factors influencing the climatic reliability of electronics namely humidity interaction with materials and ionic contamination on the PCBA surface, common types and sources of ionic contamination...... in electronics, the test methods and techniques, and failure mechanisms related to climate and contamination. Chapter 6 summarizes the materials and experimental methods employed in this thesis. The results of various investigations are presented as individual research papers as published or in the draft form...

  8. Physical attraction to reliable, low variability nervous systems: Reaction time variability predicts attractiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Emily E; Saville, Christopher W N; Ward, Robert; Ramsey, Richard

    2017-01-01

    The human face cues a range of important fitness information, which guides mate selection towards desirable others. Given humans' high investment in the central nervous system (CNS), cues to CNS function should be especially important in social selection. We tested if facial attractiveness preferences are sensitive to the reliability of human nervous system function. Several decades of research suggest an operational measure for CNS reliability is reaction time variability, which is measured by standard deviation of reaction times across trials. Across two experiments, we show that low reaction time variability is associated with facial attractiveness. Moreover, variability in performance made a unique contribution to attractiveness judgements above and beyond both physical health and sex-typicality judgements, which have previously been associated with perceptions of attractiveness. In a third experiment, we empirically estimated the distribution of attractiveness preferences expected by chance and show that the size and direction of our results in Experiments 1 and 2 are statistically unlikely without reference to reaction time variability. We conclude that an operating characteristic of the human nervous system, reliability of information processing, is signalled to others through facial appearance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. New horizons in mouse immunoinformatics: reliable in silico prediction of mouse class I histocompatibility major complex peptide binding affinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Guan, Pingping; Doytchinova, Irini A; Flower, Darren R

    2004-11-21

    Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis is a main cornerstone of modern informatic disciplines. Predictive computational models, based on QSAR technology, of peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binding affinity have now become a vital component of modern day computational immunovaccinology. Historically, such approaches have been built around semi-qualitative, classification methods, but these are now giving way to quantitative regression methods. The additive method, an established immunoinformatics technique for the quantitative prediction of peptide-protein affinity, was used here to identify the sequence dependence of peptide binding specificity for three mouse class I MHC alleles: H2-D(b), H2-K(b) and H2-K(k). As we show, in terms of reliability the resulting models represent a significant advance on existing methods. They can be used for the accurate prediction of T-cell epitopes and are freely available online ( http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred).

  10. Predicting Proliferation: High Reliability Forecasting Models of Nuclear Proliferation as a Policy & Analytical Aid

    OpenAIRE

    Center on Contemporary Conflict; Gartzke, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Performer: University of California at San Diego Project Lead: Erik Gartzke Project Cost: $121,000 FY15-16 Objective: Scholars have spent decades studying and explaining nuclear proliferation. This project will develop a model to predict the behavior of states regarding their pursuit and acquisition of nuclear weapons. An accurate prediction model will allow for action against potential suppliers, interdiction of nuclear trade, intelligence collection on covert nuclea...

  11. Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. A New Approach for Reliability Life Prediction of Rail Vehicle Axle by Considering Vibration Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meral Bayraktar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of vibration on the axle has been considered. Vibration measurements at different speeds have been performed on the axle of a running rail vehicle to figure out displacement, acceleration, time, and frequency response. Based on the experimental works, equivalent stress has been used to find out life of the axles for 90% and 10% reliability. Calculated life values of the rail vehicle axle have been compared with the real life data and it is found that the life of a vehicle axle taking into account the vibration effects is in good agreement with the real life of the axle.

  13. On the accuracy and reliability of predictions by control-system theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbon, W T; Copeland, K E; Dyer, V R; Harman, W K; Mosley, B L

    1990-12-01

    In three experiments we used control-system theory (CST) to predict the results of tracking tasks on which people held a handle to keep a cursor even with a target on a computer screen. 10 people completed a total of 104 replications of the task. In each experiment, there were two conditions: in one, only the handle affected the position of the cursor; in the other, a random disturbance also affected the cursor. From a person's performance during Condition 1, we derived constants used in the CST model to predict the results of Condition 2. In two experiments, predictions occurred a few minutes before Condition 2; in one experiment, the delay was 1 yr. During a 1-min. experimental run, the positions of handle and cursor, produced by the person, were each sampled 1800 times, once every 1/30 sec. During a modeling run, the model predicted the positions of the handle and target for each of the 1800 intervals sampled in the experimental run. In 104 replications, the mean correlation between predicted and actual positions of the handle was .996; SD = .002.

  14. GenMol trademark supramolecular descriptors predicting reliable sensitivity of energetic compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benazet, Stephane; Jacob, Guy [SNPE Materiaux Energetiques, Vert Le Petit (France); Pepe, Gerard [CINaM UPR-CNRS 3118, Campus de Luminy Case, Marseille (France)

    2009-04-15

    Structure/activity relationship methodology has been applied to the problem of the prediction of the energetic molecule's sensitivity. This parameter knowledge is of great importance to increase the safety of operations in the field of synthesis and manipulation of such compounds. It has been shown that descriptors of the solid state interactions and surface topology issued from GenMol {sup trademark} software calculations greatly enhanced the correlation between measured and predicted sensitivity. As the structural parameters used to establish the descriptors are experimental ones, their physical significance is particularly preserved which allows to give a good prediction for impact or friction sensitivity by the so defined descriptors. (Abstract Copyright [2009], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  15. Accuracy and Reliability in the Prediction of End-of-Life Performance of Solar Generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapp, Etienne

    2008-09-01

    The end-of-life power analysis of solar arrays is calculated using a combination of arithmetic and root square sums of loss factors. These loss factors are sometimes linked to degradations, sometimes linked to uncertainties. The uncertainties of the degradations are taken into account considering contractual "worst cases". This paper will put the first stones for a move "metrological" evaluation of the probable performance associated with a standard uncertainty. The turn from silicon to triple junction solar cells induces some changes in the degradation parameters of solar arrays: * The triple junction cells are more sensitive to UV darkening than silicon ones. * The cell voltage is higher and the current is lower. Then the cell strings are shorter, and there are more strings in parallel. This induces some changes in the reliability analyses and risk management. * The failure modes and failure rates of these cells have to be compared and discussed. We try to define improved rules to design solar arrays for end of life performance, for a better knowledge of the margins and a better reliability.

  16. Predictive Reliability Assessment of the Automatic Clutch on a Primary Sodium Pump Drive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westwell, P.

    1975-01-01

    This paper examines the reliability of a group of three clutch couplings each mounted between a pony motor and the main drive for the primary sodium pumps. The sodium pumps specification requires that continuously running AC pony motors be fitted to give a guaranteed 10% drive to the pumps in the event of a main supply failure. The drive to the main shaft is via 3 : 1 reduction gearing such that a six pole pony motor running at 300 rpm would drive the main shaft at 100 rpm i.e., 10% of its rated speed. In order that the pony motor drive could be permanently energised during normal operation a free wheeling clutch is fitted between the motor and the reduction gearing. The type of clutch chosen is. the Synchro-Self Shifting (SSS) clutch, shown in Figure 1. This type of clutch has proved itself under fairly onerous operating conditions, but is normally mounted on a horizontal driving shaft whereas in this case because of space limitations, it is necessary to mount it vertically. The reliability target set is that the chance of losing all three independent back-up pony motor drives on loss of main supplies should fall within the 10 -5 - 10 -6 band. Since the electrical supplies and other parts of the pony motor drives have been assessed within this target and some doubts expressed about the clutch it was now necessary to look at this in some detail

  17. Reliable B cell epitope predictions: impacts of method development and improved benchmarking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kringelum, Jens Vindahl; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2012-01-01

    biomedical applications such as; rational vaccine design, development of disease diagnostics and immunotherapeutics. However, experimental mapping of epitopes is resource intensive making in silico methods an appealing complementary approach. To date, the reported performance of methods for in silico mapping...... evaluation data set improved from 0.712 to 0.727. Our results thus demonstrate that given proper benchmark definitions, B-cell epitope prediction methods achieve highly significant predictive performances suggesting these tools to be a powerful asset in rational epitope discovery. The updated version...

  18. Prediction of Osteoporosis through Radiographic Assessment of Proximal Femoral Morphology and Texture in Elderly; is it Valid and Reliable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özkan Köse

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the best predictive radiographic measurement method to identify the presence of osteoporosis and test the inter-observer and intra-observer reliability and validity of these methods in postmenopausal women. Materials and Methods: Ninety-two elderly female patients who presented with hip pain were included. Hip radiographs were used to determine the values of Singh index (SI, canal-to-calcar ratio (CCR, and cortical thickness index (CTI. All measurements were performed by two independent observers on two separate occasions, at least 4 weeks apart. Bone mineral density (BMD was assessed by DEXA. In the first part of the analysis, reliability of the all measurement methods was tested. In the second part, correlation coefficient (Pearson r was used to determine the relationship between the measurement methods and BMD. Finally ROC curve analysis was performed to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and threshold values for each radiographic measurement method. Results: Intra-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.359 for observer A, and 0.224 for observer B. Inter-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.070 for observer A and 0.051 for observer B. The intra-observer and inter-observer reliability was good and excellent for CTI and CCR for both observers (ICC: 0.920 and ICC: 0.936. There was no correlation between SI and BMD (p=0.818. On the other hand, there was a significant correlation between CTI and CCR and BMD (p=0.001. All measured indices were significantly different (p<0.05 between osteoporotic and non-osteoporotic patients. CTI value less than 0.3 or CCR value less than 0.47 reflects the presence of osteoporosis with 100% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Conclusion: SI is not reliable and do not correlate with BMD. However, both CTI and CCR showed good and excellent reliability, and each index correlated well with the real BMD

  19. Serum interleukin -8 is not a reliable marker for prediction of vesicoureteral reflux in children with febrile urinary tract infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazl Mahyar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In view of the side effects of voiding cystourethrography (VCUG, identification of noninvasive markers predicting the presence of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR is important. This study was conducted to determine the predictive value of serum interleukin-8 (IL-8 in diagnosis of VUR in children with first febrile urinary tract infection (UTI. Materials and Methods: Eighty children with first febrile UTI were divided into two groups, with and without VUR, based on the results of VCUG. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value positive and negative likelihood ratio, and accuracy of IL-8 for prediction of VUR were investigated. Results: Of the 80 children with febrile UTI, 30 (37.5% had VUR. There was no significant difference between the children with and without VUR and also between low and high-grade VUR groups in terms of serum concentration of IL-8 (P>0.05. Based on ROC curve, the sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio positive, and accuracy of serum IL-8 was lower than those of erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C-reactive protein. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed significant positive correlation only between erythrocyte sedimentation rate and VUR. Conclusions: This study showed no significant difference between the children with and without VUR in terms of the serum concentration of IL-8. Therefore, it seems that serum IL-8 is not a reliable marker for prediction of VUR.

  20. Prediction of sand production onset in petroleum reservoirs using a reliable classification approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Gharagheizi

    2017-06-01

    It is shown that the developed model can accurately predict the sand production in a real field. The results of this study indicates that implementation of LSSVM modeling can effectively help completion designers to make an on time sand control plan with least deterioration of production.

  1. Identification of the best DFT functionals for a reliable prediction of lignin vibrational properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barsberg, Soren

    2015-01-01

    Lignin is the most abundant aromatic plant polymer on earth. Useful information on its structure and interactions is gained by vibrational spectroscopy and relies on the quality of band assignments. B3LYP predictions were recently shown to support band assignments. Further progress calls...

  2. Are Available Models Reliable for Predicting the FRP Contribution to the Shear Resistance of RC Beams?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sas, G.; Täljsten, Björn; Barros, J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the trustworthiness of the existing theory for predicting the fiber-reinforced plastic contribution to the shear resistance of reinforced concrete beams is discussed. The most well-known shear models for external bonded reinforcement are presented, commented on, and compared...

  3. Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

  4. The nuclear power plant maintenance personnel reliability prediction (NPP/MPRP) effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.

    1982-01-01

    Human errors committed during maintenance activities are potentially a major contribution to the overall risk associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP). An NRC-sponsored program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is attempting to develop a quantitative predictive technique to evaluate the contribution of maintenance errors to the overall NPP risk. The current work includes a survey of the requirements of potential users to ascertain the need for and content of the proposed quantitative model, plus an initial job/task analysis to determine the scope and applicability of various maintenance tasks. In addition, existing human reliability prediction models are being reviewed and assessed with respect to their applicability to NPP maintenance tasks. This paper discusses the status of the program and summarizes the results to date

  5. Reliability residual-life prediction method for thermal aging based on performance degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Xue Fei; Yu Weiwei; Ti Wenxin; Liu Xiaotian

    2013-01-01

    The paper makes the study of the nuclear power plant main pipeline. The residual-life of the main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and Bayesian updating methods. Firstly, the thermal aging impact property degradation process of the main pipeline austenitic stainless steel has been analyzed by the accelerated thermal aging test data. Then, the thermal aging residual-life prediction model based on the impact property degradation data is built by Bayesian updating methods. Finally, these models are applied in practical situations. It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project. Also, it provides a foundation for the scientific management of aging management of the main pipeline. (authors)

  6. The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yu-Wei; Lin, Keh-Chung; Korivi, Mallikarjuna; Lee, Tsong-Hai; Wu, Ching-Yi; Wu, Kuen-Yuh

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76). Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) and Medical Research Council (MRC) scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34) and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research. PMID:24743892

  7. The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Wei Hsieh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG, and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76. Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA and Medical Research Council (MRC scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p < 0.05. After rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34 and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p < 0.05. Baseline 8-OHdG was significantly correlated with post-treatment FMA, MRC, and pain scores (r = −0.34, −0.31, and 0.25; p < 0.05, indicating its ability to predict functional outcomes. 8-OHdG levels were significantly decreased, and functional outcomes were improved after rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research.

  8. CCTop: An Intuitive, Flexible and Reliable CRISPR/Cas9 Target Prediction Tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Stemmer

    Full Text Available Engineering of the CRISPR/Cas9 system has opened a plethora of new opportunities for site-directed mutagenesis and targeted genome modification. Fundamental to this is a stretch of twenty nucleotides at the 5' end of a guide RNA that provides specificity to the bound Cas9 endonuclease. Since a sequence of twenty nucleotides can occur multiple times in a given genome and some mismatches seem to be accepted by the CRISPR/Cas9 complex, an efficient and reliable in silico selection and evaluation of the targeting site is key prerequisite for the experimental success. Here we present the CRISPR/Cas9 target online predictor (CCTop, http://crispr.cos.uni-heidelberg.de to overcome limitations of already available tools. CCTop provides an intuitive user interface with reasonable default parameters that can easily be tuned by the user. From a given query sequence, CCTop identifies and ranks all candidate sgRNA target sites according to their off-target quality and displays full documentation. CCTop was experimentally validated for gene inactivation, non-homologous end-joining as well as homology directed repair. Thus, CCTop provides the bench biologist with a tool for the rapid and efficient identification of high quality target sites.

  9. Is epicardial adipose tissue, assessed by echocardiography, a reliable method for visceral adipose tissue prediction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silaghi, Alina Cristina; Poantă, Laura; Valea, Ana; Pais, Raluca; Silaghi, Horatiu

    2011-03-01

    Epicardial adipose tissue is an ectopic fat storage at the heart surface in direct contact with the coronary arteries. It is considered a metabolically active tissue, being a local source of pro-inflammatory factors that contribute to the pathogenesis of coronary artery disease. The AIM of our study was to establish correlations between echocardiographic assessment of epicardial adipose tissue and anthropometric and ultrasound measurements of the central and peripheral fat depots. The study was conducted on 22 patients with or without coronaropathy. Epicardial adipose tissue was measured using Aloka Prosound α 10 machine with a 3.5-7.5 MHz variable-frequency transducer and subcutaneous and visceral fat with Esaote Megas GPX machine and 3.5-7.5 MHz variable frequency transducer. Epicardial adipose tissue measured by echocardiography is correlated with waist circumference (p < 0.05), visceral adipose tissue thickness measured by ultrasonography (US) and is not correlated with body mass index (p = 0.315), hip and thigh circumference or subcutaneous fat thickness measured by US. Our study confirms that US assessment of epicardial fat correlates with anthropometric and US measurements of the central fat, representing an indirect but reliable marker of the visceral fat.

  10. Modified Inverse First Order Reliability Method (I-FORM) for Predicting Extreme Sea States.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Dallman, Ann Renee; Neary, Vincent Sinclair

    2014-09-01

    Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulation s as a part of the stand ard current practice for designing marine structure s to survive extreme sea states. Such environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height ( ) and energy period ( ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first - order reliability method (IFORM) i s standard design practice for generating environmental contours. In this paper, the traditional appli cation of the IFORM to generating environmental contours representing extreme sea states is described in detail and its merits and drawbacks are assessed. The application of additional methods for analyzing sea state data including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the data under consideration is proposed. A reexamination of the components of the IFORM application to the problem at hand including the use of new distribution fitting techniques are shown to contribute to the development of more accurate a nd reasonable representations of extreme sea states for use in survivability analysis for marine struc tures. Keywords: In verse FORM, Principal Component Analysis , Environmental Contours, Extreme Sea State Characteri zation, Wave Energy Converters

  11. Microgravity spheroids as a reliable, long-term tool for predictive toxicology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fey, S. J.; Wrzesinski, Krzysztof

    2013-01-01

    those seen in vivo. Studies with 5 common drugs (acetaminophen, amiodarone, metformin, phenformin, and valproic acid) have shown that they are more predictive of lethally-toxic plasma levels in vivo than published studies using primary human hepatocytes. Shotgun proteomics has revealed that the gain...... this time they are metabolically stable for at least 24 days more; grow slowly (a doubling time of >20 days); produce physiological levels of urea, cholesterol and ATP; exhibit stable gene expression (for selected liver relevant genes); and can post translationally modify proteins in a manner which mirrors...

  12. Linear Interaction Energy Based Prediction of Cytochrome P450 1A2 Binding Affinities with Reliability Estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Capoferri

    Full Text Available Prediction of human Cytochrome P450 (CYP binding affinities of small ligands, i.e., substrates and inhibitors, represents an important task for predicting drug-drug interactions. A quantitative assessment of the ligand binding affinity towards different CYPs can provide an estimate of inhibitory activity or an indication of isoforms prone to interact with the substrate of inhibitors. However, the accuracy of global quantitative models for CYP substrate binding or inhibition based on traditional molecular descriptors can be limited, because of the lack of information on the structure and flexibility of the catalytic site of CYPs. Here we describe the application of a method that combines protein-ligand docking, Molecular Dynamics (MD simulations and Linear Interaction Energy (LIE theory, to allow for quantitative CYP affinity prediction. Using this combined approach, a LIE model for human CYP 1A2 was developed and evaluated, based on a structurally diverse dataset for which the estimated experimental uncertainty was 3.3 kJ mol-1. For the computed CYP 1A2 binding affinities, the model showed a root mean square error (RMSE of 4.1 kJ mol-1 and a standard error in prediction (SDEP in cross-validation of 4.3 kJ mol-1. A novel approach that includes information on both structural ligand description and protein-ligand interaction was developed for estimating the reliability of predictions, and was able to identify compounds from an external test set with a SDEP for the predicted affinities of 4.6 kJ mol-1 (corresponding to 0.8 pKi units.

  13. Performance of synchrotron x-ray monochromators under heat load: How reliable are the predictions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freund, A.K.; Hoszowska, J.; Migliore, J.-S.; Mocella, V.; Zhang, L.; Ferrero, C.

    2000-01-01

    With the ongoing development of insertion devices with smaller gaps the heat load generated by modern synchrotron sources increases continuously. To predict the overall performance of experiments on beam lines it is of crucial importance to be able to predict the efficiency of x-ray optics and in particular that of crystal monochromators. We report on a detailed comparison between theory and experiment for a water-cooled silicon crystal exposed to bending magnet radiation of up to 237 W total power and 1.3 W/mm2 power density. The thermal deformation has been calculated by the code ANSYS and its output has been injected into a finite difference code based on the Takagi-Taupin diffraction theory for distorted crystals. Several slit settings, filters and reflection orders were used to vary the geometrical conditions and the x-ray penetration depth in the crystal. In general, good agreement has been observed between the calculated and the observed values for the rocking curve width

  14. Sparse Power-Law Network Model for Reliable Statistical Predictions Based on Sampled Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander P. Kartun-Giles

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A projective network model is a model that enables predictions to be made based on a subsample of the network data, with the predictions remaining unchanged if a larger sample is taken into consideration. An exchangeable model is a model that does not depend on the order in which nodes are sampled. Despite a large variety of non-equilibrium (growing and equilibrium (static sparse complex network models that are widely used in network science, how to reconcile sparseness (constant average degree with the desired statistical properties of projectivity and exchangeability is currently an outstanding scientific problem. Here we propose a network process with hidden variables which is projective and can generate sparse power-law networks. Despite the model not being exchangeable, it can be closely related to exchangeable uncorrelated networks as indicated by its information theory characterization and its network entropy. The use of the proposed network process as a null model is here tested on real data, indicating that the model offers a promising avenue for statistical network modelling.

  15. Accurate and Reliable Prediction of the Binding Affinities of Macrocycles to Their Protein Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haoyu S; Deng, Yuqing; Wu, Yujie; Sindhikara, Dan; Rask, Amy R; Kimura, Takayuki; Abel, Robert; Wang, Lingle

    2017-12-12

    Macrocycles have been emerging as a very important drug class in the past few decades largely due to their expanded chemical diversity benefiting from advances in synthetic methods. Macrocyclization has been recognized as an effective way to restrict the conformational space of acyclic small molecule inhibitors with the hope of improving potency, selectivity, and metabolic stability. Because of their relatively larger size as compared to typical small molecule drugs and the complexity of the structures, efficient sampling of the accessible macrocycle conformational space and accurate prediction of their binding affinities to their target protein receptors poses a great challenge of central importance in computational macrocycle drug design. In this article, we present a novel method for relative binding free energy calculations between macrocycles with different ring sizes and between the macrocycles and their corresponding acyclic counterparts. We have applied the method to seven pharmaceutically interesting data sets taken from recent drug discovery projects including 33 macrocyclic ligands covering a diverse chemical space. The predicted binding free energies are in good agreement with experimental data with an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.94 kcal/mol. This is to our knowledge the first time where the free energy of the macrocyclization of linear molecules has been directly calculated with rigorous physics-based free energy calculation methods, and we anticipate the outstanding accuracy demonstrated here across a broad range of target classes may have significant implications for macrocycle drug discovery.

  16. Planning Irreversible Electroporation in the Porcine Kidney: Are Numerical Simulations Reliable for Predicting Empiric Ablation Outcomes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wimmer, Thomas; Srimathveeravalli, Govindarajan; Gutta, Narendra; Ezell, Paula C.; Monette, Sebastien; Maybody, Majid; Erinjery, Joseph P.; Durack, Jeremy C.; Coleman, Jonathan A.; Solomon, Stephen B.

    2015-01-01

    PurposeNumerical simulations are used for treatment planning in clinical applications of irreversible electroporation (IRE) to determine ablation size and shape. To assess the reliability of simulations for treatment planning, we compared simulation results with empiric outcomes of renal IRE using computed tomography (CT) and histology in an animal model.MethodsThe ablation size and shape for six different IRE parameter sets (70–90 pulses, 2,000–2,700 V, 70–100 µs) for monopolar and bipolar electrodes was simulated using a numerical model. Employing these treatment parameters, 35 CT-guided IRE ablations were created in both kidneys of six pigs and followed up with CT immediately and after 24 h. Histopathology was analyzed from postablation day 1.ResultsAblation zones on CT measured 81 ± 18 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.05) and 115 ± 18 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.09) of the simulated size for monopolar electrodes, and 190 ± 33 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.001) and 234 ± 12 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.0001) for bipolar electrodes. Histopathology indicated smaller ablation zones than simulated (71 ± 41 %, p ≤ 0.047) and measured on CT (47 ± 16 %, p ≤ 0.005) with complete ablation of kidney parenchyma within the central zone and incomplete ablation in the periphery.ConclusionBoth numerical simulations for planning renal IRE and CT measurements may overestimate the size of ablation compared to histology, and ablation effects may be incomplete in the periphery

  17. Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    from different fields and have not yet been compared in environmental modeling. To compare the two approaches, we develop a unifying terminology, evaluate them theoretically, and apply them to conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling in the same drainage system. Our results show that both approaches can......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...... approaches which use stochastic processes to describe systematic deviations and to discuss their advantages and drawbacks for urban drainage modeling. The two methodologies are an external bias description (EBD) and an internal noise description (IND, also known as stochastic gray-box modeling). They emerge...

  18. Understanding and predicting metallic whisker growth and its effects on reliability : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michael, Joseph Richard; Grant, Richard P.; Rodriguez, Mark Andrew; Pillars, Jamin; Susan, Donald Francis; McKenzie, Bonnie Beth; Yelton, William Graham

    2012-01-01

    Tin (Sn) whiskers are conductive Sn filaments that grow from Sn-plated surfaces, such as surface finishes on electronic packages. The phenomenon of Sn whiskering has become a concern in recent years due to requirements for lead (Pb)-free soldering and surface finishes in commercial electronics. Pure Sn finishes are more prone to whisker growth than their Sn-Pb counterparts and high profile failures due to whisker formation (causing short circuits) in space applications have been documented. At Sandia, Sn whiskers are of interest due to increased use of Pb-free commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) parts and possible future requirements for Pb-free solders and surface finishes in high-reliability microelectronics. Lead-free solders and surface finishes are currently being used or considered for several Sandia applications. Despite the long history of Sn whisker research and the recently renewed interest in this topic, a comprehensive understanding of whisker growth remains elusive. This report describes recent research on characterization of Sn whiskers with the aim of understanding the underlying whisker growth mechanism(s). The report is divided into four sections and an Appendix. In Section 1, the Sn plating process is summarized. Specifically, the Sn plating parameters that were successful in producing samples with whiskers will be reviewed. In Section 2, the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of Sn whiskers and time-lapse SEM studies of whisker growth will be discussed. This discussion includes the characterization of straight as well as kinked whiskers. In Section 3, a detailed discussion is given of SEM/EBSD (electron backscatter diffraction) techniques developed to determine the crystallography of Sn whiskers. In Section 4, these SEM/EBSD methods are employed to determine the crystallography of Sn whiskers, with a statistically significant number of whiskers analyzed. This is the largest study of Sn whisker crystallography ever reported. This section includes a

  19. Advanced diagnostics and predictive maintenance to improve availability and reliability of ENEL plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cenci, V.; Ghironi, M.; Guidi, L.; Lauro, M.; Pestonesi, D. [ENEL (Italy). Generation and Energy Management Division

    2007-07-01

    This paper reviews the ENEL Generation and Energy Management strategy for diagnostics and predictive maintenance of power plants and provides a comprehensive description of effective applications and systems. Exploiting the most advanced information and communication technologies makes it possible to capture weak and hidden signals and powerful processing can be used to discover forewarning symptoms and identify anomalies both in the process and, above all, inside the devices. The following systems and applications are presented together with results and impact on plant profitability: expert system for the diagnostics of plant main machinery; advanced diagnostics of 'intelligent' fieldbus devices such as on/off valve motor-driven actuators, control-valve positioners and pneumatic actuators, transmitters; control loop and control valve diagnostics in order to investigate valve friction with an estimation of the residual time to failure; multisensorial diagnostics for coal transport and storage systems aimed at preventing firing and structural damages; and wireless sensor networks for the diagnostics of medium and small size components. 4 refs., 14 figs., 1 tab.

  20. Positive Skin Test or Specific IgE to Penicillin Does Not Reliably Predict Penicillin Allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tannert, Line Kring; Mørtz, Charlotte G; Skov, Per Stahl

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: According to guidelines, patients are diagnosed with penicillin allergy if skin test (ST) result or specific IgE (s-IgE) to penicillin is positive. However, the true sensitivity and specificity of these tests are presently not known. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical relevance...... of a positive ST result and positive s-IgE and to study the reproducibility of ST and s-IgE. METHODS: A sample of convenience of 25 patients with positive penicillin ST results, antipenicillin s-IgE results, or both was challenged with their culprit penicillin. Further 19 patients were not challenged......-IgE measured (T0), and then skin tested and had s-IgE measured 4 weeks later (T1). RESULTS: Only 9 (36%) of 25 were challenge positive. There was an increased probability of being penicillin allergic if both ST result and s-IgE were positive at T0. Positive ST result or positive s-IgE alone did not predict...

  1. Inter-Investigator Reliability of Anthropometric Prediction of 1RM Bench Press in College Football Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Richard M; Arabas, Jana L; Mayhew, Jerry L; Brechue, William F

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of inter-investigator differences in anthropometric assessments on the prediction of one-repetition maximum (1RM) bench press in college football players. Division-II players (n = 34, age = 20.4 ± 1.2 y, 182.3 ± 6.6 cm, 99.1 ± 18.4 kg) were measured for selected anthropometric variables and 1RM bench press at the conclusion of a heavy resistance training program. Triceps, subscapular, and abdominal skinfolds were measured in triplicate by three investigators and used to estimate %fat. Arm circumference was measured around a flexed biceps muscle and was corrected for triceps skinfold to estimate muscle cross-sectional area (CSA). Chest circumference was measured at mid-expiration. Significant differences among the testers were evident in six of the nine anthropometric variables, with the least experienced tester being significantly different from the other testers on seven variables, although average differences among investigators ranged from 1-2% for circumferences to 4-9% for skinfolds. The two more experienced testers were significantly different on only one variable. Overall agreement among testers was high (ICC>0.895) for each variable, with low coefficients of variation (CVbench press using a non-performance anthropometric equation. Minimal experience in anthropometry may not impede strength and conditioning specialists from accurately estimating 1RM bench press.

  2. Semen molecular and cellular features: these parameters can reliably predict subsequent ART outcome in a goat model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mereu Paolo

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Currently, the assessment of sperm function in a raw or processed semen sample is not able to reliably predict sperm ability to withstand freezing and thawing procedures and in vivo fertility and/or assisted reproductive biotechnologies (ART outcome. The aim of the present study was to investigate which parameters among a battery of analyses could predict subsequent spermatozoa in vitro fertilization ability and hence blastocyst output in a goat model. Ejaculates were obtained by artificial vagina from 3 adult goats (Capra hircus aged 2 years (A, B and C. In order to assess the predictive value of viability, computer assisted sperm analyzer (CASA motility parameters and ATP intracellular concentration before and after thawing and of DNA integrity after thawing on subsequent embryo output after an in vitro fertility test, a logistic regression analysis was used. Individual differences in semen parameters were evident for semen viability after thawing and DNA integrity. Results of IVF test showed that spermatozoa collected from A and B lead to higher cleavage rates (0

  3. Reliability of Degree-Day Models to Predict the Development Time of Plutella xylostella (L.) under Field Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchioro, C A; Krechemer, F S; de Moraes, C P; Foerster, L A

    2015-12-01

    The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is a cosmopolitan pest of brassicaceous crops occurring in regions with highly distinct climate conditions. Several studies have investigated the relationship between temperature and P. xylostella development rate, providing degree-day models for populations from different geographical regions. However, there are no data available to date to demonstrate the suitability of such models to make reliable projections on the development time for this species in field conditions. In the present study, 19 models available in the literature were tested regarding their ability to accurately predict the development time of two cohorts of P. xylostella under field conditions. Only 11 out of the 19 models tested accurately predicted the development time for the first cohort of P. xylostella, but only seven for the second cohort. Five models correctly predicted the development time for both cohorts evaluated. Our data demonstrate that the accuracy of the models available for P. xylostella varies widely and therefore should be used with caution for pest management purposes.

  4. Assessing the reliability, predictive and construct validity of historical, clinical and risk management-20 (HCR-20) in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sada, Andrea; Robles-García, Rebeca; Martínez-López, Nicolás; Hernández-Ramírez, Rafael; Tovilla-Zarate, Carlos-Alfonso; López-Munguía, Fernando; Suárez-Alvarez, Enrique; Ayala, Xochitl; Fresán, Ana

    2016-08-01

    Assessing dangerousness to gauge the likelihood of future violent behaviour has become an integral part of clinical mental health practice in forensic and non-forensic psychiatric settings, one of the most effective instruments for this being the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management-20 (HCR-20). To examine the HCR-20 factor structure in Mexican psychiatric inpatients and to obtain its predictive validity and reliability for use in this population. In total, 225 patients diagnosed with psychotic, affective or personality disorders were included. The HCR-20 was applied at hospital admission and violent behaviours were assessed during psychiatric hospitalization using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). Construct validity, predictive validity and internal consistency were determined. Violent behaviour remains more severe in patients classified in the high-risk group during hospitalization. Fifteen items displayed adequate communalities in the original designated domains of the HCR-20 and internal consistency of the instruments was high. The HCR-20 is a suitable instrument for predicting violence risk in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

  5. A human hemi-cornea model for eye irritation testing: quality control of production, reliability and predictive capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelke, M; Zorn-Kruppa, M; Gabel, D; Reisinger, K; Rusche, B; Mewes, K R

    2013-02-01

    We have developed a 3-dimensional human hemi-cornea which comprises an immortalized epithelial cell line and keratocytes embedded in a collagen stroma. In the present study, we have used MTT reduction of the whole tissue to clarify whether the production of this complex 3-D-model is transferable into other laboratories and whether these tissues can be constructed reproducibly. Our results demonstrate the reproducible production of the hemi-cornea model according to standard operation procedures using 15 independent batches of reconstructed hemi-cornea models in two independent laboratories each. Furthermore, the hemi-cornea tissues have been treated with 20 chemicals of different eye-irritating potential under blind conditions to assess the performance and limitations of our test system comparing three different prediction models. The most suitable prediction model revealed an overall in vitro-in vivo concordance of 80% and 70% in the participating laboratories, respectively, and an inter-laboratory concordance of 80%. Sensitivity of the test was 77% and specificity was between 57% and 86% to discriminate classified from non-classified chemicals. We conclude that additional physiologically relevant endpoints in both epithelium and stroma have to be developed for the reliable prediction of all GHS classes of eye irritation in one stand alone test system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

    2018-02-15

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

  7. Positive Skin Test or Specific IgE to Penicillin Does Not Reliably Predict Penicillin Allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tannert, Line Kring; Mortz, Charlotte Gotthard; Skov, Per Stahl; Bindslev-Jensen, Carsten

    According to guidelines, patients are diagnosed with penicillin allergy if skin test (ST) result or specific IgE (s-IgE) to penicillin is positive. However, the true sensitivity and specificity of these tests are presently not known. To investigate the clinical relevance of a positive ST result and positive s-IgE and to study the reproducibility of ST and s-IgE. A sample of convenience of 25 patients with positive penicillin ST results, antipenicillin s-IgE results, or both was challenged with their culprit penicillin. Further 19 patients were not challenged, but deemed allergic on the basis of a recent anaphylactic reaction or delayed reactions to skin testing. Another sample of convenience of 18 patients, 17 overlapping with the 25 challenged, with initial skin testing and s-IgE (median, 25; range, 3-121), months earlier (T -1 ), was repeat skin tested and had s-IgE measured (T 0 ), and then skin tested and had s-IgE measured 4 weeks later (T 1 ). Only 9 (36%) of 25 were challenge positive. There was an increased probability of being penicillin allergic if both ST result and s-IgE were positive at T 0 . Positive ST result or positive s-IgE alone did not predict penicillin allergy. Among the 18 patients repeatedly tested, 46.2% (12 of 25) of positive ST results at T -1 were reproducibly positive at T 0 . For s-IgE, 54.2% (14 of 24) positive measurements were still positive at T 0 and 7 converted to positive at T 1 . The best predictor for a clinically significant (IgE-mediated) penicillin allergy is a combination of a positive case history with simultaneous positive ST result and s-IgE or a positive challenge result. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Some preliminary evidence of long-horizon predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Wei; Nam, Deokwoo

    2011-01-01

    When prices are sticky, movements in the nominal exchange rate have a direct impact on international relative prices. A relative price misalignment would trigger an adjustment in consumption and employment, and may help to predict future movements in the exchange rate. Although purchasing-power-parity fundamentals, in general, have only weak predictability, currency misalignment may be indicated by price differentials for some goods, which could then have predictive power for subsequent re-ev...

  9. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Preliminary Results with Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

    2008-12-01

    Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, the deadliest named tropical cyclone (TC) in the North Indian Ocean Basin, devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, causing tremendous damage and numerous fatalities. An increased lead time in the prediction of TC Nargis would have increased the warning time and may therefore have saved lives and reduced economic damage. Recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputers have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, presumably by improving multi-scale simulations. The key but challenging questions to be answered include: (1) if and how realistic, in terms of timing, location and TC general structure, the global mesoscale model (GMM) can simulate TC genesis and (2) under what conditions can the model extend the lead time of TC genesis forecasts. In this study, we focus on genesis prediction for TCs in the Indian Ocean with the GMM. Preliminary real-data simulations show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted at a lead time of up to 5 days. These simulations also suggest that the accurate representations of a westerly wind burst (WWB) and an equatorial trough, associated with monsoon circulations and/or a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are important for predicting the formation of this kind of TC. In addition to the WWB and equatorial trough, other favorable environmental conditions will be examined, which include enhanced monsoonal circulation, upper-level outflow, low- and middle-level moistening, and surface fluxes.

  10. The consultation and relational empathy (CARE) measure: development and preliminary validation and reliability of an empathy-based consultation process measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Stewart W; Maxwell, Margaret; Heaney, David; Watt, Graham Cm

    2004-12-01

    Empathy is a key aspect of the clinical encounter but there is a lack of patient-assessed measures suitable for general clinical settings. Our aim was to develop a consultation process measure based on a broad definition of empathy, which is meaningful to patients irrespective of their socio-economic background. Qualitative and quantitative approaches were used to develop and validate the new measure, which we have called the consultation and relational empathy (CARE) measure. Concurrent validity was assessed by correlational analysis against other validated measures in a series of three pilot studies in general practice (in areas of high or low socio-economic deprivation). Face and content validity was investigated by 43 interviews with patients from both types of areas, and by feedback from GPs and expert researchers in the field. The initial version of the new measure (pilot 1; high deprivation practice) correlated strongly (r = 0.85) with the Reynolds empathy measure (RES) and the Barrett-Lennard empathy subscale (BLESS) (r = 0.63), but had a highly skewed distribution (skew -1.879, kurtosis 3.563). Statistical analysis, and feedback from the 20 patients interviewed, the GPs and the expert researchers, led to a number of modifications. The revised, second version of the CARE measure, tested in an area of low deprivation (pilot 2) also correlated strongly with the established empathy measures (r = 0.84 versus RES and r = 0.77 versus BLESS) but had a less skewed distribution (skew -0.634, kurtosis -0.067). Internal reliability of the revised version was high (Cronbach's alpha 0.92). Patient feedback at interview (n = 13) led to only minor modification. The final version of the CARE measure, tested in pilot 3 (high deprivation practice) confirmed the validation with the other empathy measures (r = 0.85 versus RES and r = 0.84 versus BLESS) and the face validity (feedback from 10 patients). These preliminary results support the validity and reliability of the CARE

  11. Do in-training evaluation reports deserve their bad reputations? A study of the reliability and predictive ability of ITER scores and narrative comments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Shiphra; Eva, Kevin; Regehr, Glenn

    2013-10-01

    Although scores on in-training evaluation reports (ITERs) are often criticized for poor reliability and validity, ITER comments may yield valuable information. The authors assessed across-rotation reliability of ITER scores in one internal medicine program, ability of ITER scores and comments to predict postgraduate year three (PGY3) performance, and reliability and incremental predictive validity of attendings' analysis of written comments. Numeric and narrative data from the first two years of ITERs for one cohort of residents at the University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine (2009-2011) were assessed for reliability and predictive validity of third-year performance. Twenty-four faculty attendings rank-ordered comments (without scores) such that each resident was ranked by three faculty. Mean ITER scores and comment rankings were submitted to regression analyses; dependent variables were PGY3 ITER scores and program directors' rankings. Reliabilities of ITER scores across nine rotations for 63 residents were 0.53 for both postgraduate year one (PGY1) and postgraduate year two (PGY2). Interrater reliabilities across three attendings' rankings were 0.83 for PGY1 and 0.79 for PGY2. There were strong correlations between ITER scores and comments within each year (0.72 and 0.70). Regressions revealed that PGY1 and PGY2 ITER scores collectively explained 25% of variance in PGY3 scores and 46% of variance in PGY3 rankings. Comment rankings did not improve predictions. ITER scores across multiple rotations showed decent reliability and predictive validity. Comment ranks did not add to the predictive ability, but correlation analyses suggest that trainee performance can be measured through these comments.

  12. Laser Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-08-01

    qovernment aqencies on request from RADC ( nCTM ) Griffiss AFP NY 13441. 71. Cochran, Albert L., "Check Test of Rangefinder, AN/GVS-3 (SM23E2)," Army...Qualified military and oovemnent aoencles on request from RAOC ( ncTM ) Griff Iss AFB NY 13441. 222. This reference will be made available to Qualified

  13. Brain morphometric analysis predicts decline of intelligence quotient in children with sickle cell disease: A preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rong; Krejza, Jaroslaw; Arkuszewski, Michal; Zimmerman, Robert A; Herskovits, Edward H; Melhem, Elias R

    2017-03-01

    For children with sickle cell disease (SCD) and at low risk category of stroke, we aim to build a predictive model to differentiate those with decline of intelligence-quotient (IQ) from counterparts without decline, based on structural magnetic-resonance (MR) imaging volumetric analysis. This preliminary prospective cohort study included 25 children with SCD, homozygous for hemoglobin S, with no history of stroke and transcranial Doppler mean velocities below 170cm/s at baseline. We administered the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test (K-BIT) to each child at yearly intervals for 2-4 years. Each child underwent MR examination within 30 days of the baseline K-BIT evaluation date. We calculated K-BIT change rates, and used rate of change in K-BIT to classify children into two groups: a decline group and a non-decline group. We then generated predictive models to predict K-BIT decline/non-decline based on regional gray-matter (GM) volumes computed from structural MR images. We identified six structures (the left median cingulate gyrus, the right middle occipital gyrus, the left inferior occipital gyrus, the right fusiform gyrus, the right middle temporal gyrus, the right inferior temporal gyrus) that, when assessed for volume at baseline, are jointly predictive of whether a child would suffer subsequent K-BIT decline. Based on these six regional GM volumes and the baseline K-BIT, we built a prognostic model using the K * algorithm. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were 0.84, 0.78 and 0.86, respectively. GM volumetric analysis predicts subsequent IQ decline for children with SCD. Copyright © 2017 Medical University of Bialystok. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Predicting diagnostic error in radiology via eye-tracking and image analytics: Preliminary investigation in mammography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voisin, Sophie; Tourassi, Georgia D. [Biomedical Science and Engineering Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States); Pinto, Frank [School of Engineering, Science, and Technology, Virginia State University, Petersburg, Virginia 23806 (United States); Morin-Ducote, Garnetta; Hudson, Kathleen B. [Department of Radiology, University of Tennessee Medical Center at Knoxville, Knoxville, Tennessee 37920 (United States)

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: The primary aim of the present study was to test the feasibility of predicting diagnostic errors in mammography by merging radiologists’ gaze behavior and image characteristics. A secondary aim was to investigate group-based and personalized predictive models for radiologists of variable experience levels.Methods: The study was performed for the clinical task of assessing the likelihood of malignancy of mammographic masses. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions for 40 cases were acquired from four Radiology residents and two breast imaging experts as part of an IRB-approved pilot study. Gaze behavior features were extracted from the eye-tracking data. Computer-generated and BIRADS images features were extracted from the images. Finally, machine learning algorithms were used to merge gaze and image features for predicting human error. Feature selection was thoroughly explored to determine the relative contribution of the various features. Group-based and personalized user modeling was also investigated.Results: Machine learning can be used to predict diagnostic error by merging gaze behavior characteristics from the radiologist and textural characteristics from the image under review. Leveraging data collected from multiple readers produced a reasonable group model [area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.792 ± 0.030]. Personalized user modeling was far more accurate for the more experienced readers (AUC = 0.837 ± 0.029) than for the less experienced ones (AUC = 0.667 ± 0.099). The best performing group-based and personalized predictive models involved combinations of both gaze and image features.Conclusions: Diagnostic errors in mammography can be predicted to a good extent by leveraging the radiologists’ gaze behavior and image content.

  15. Predicting diagnostic error in radiology via eye-tracking and image analytics: Preliminary investigation in mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voisin, Sophie; Tourassi, Georgia D.; Pinto, Frank; Morin-Ducote, Garnetta; Hudson, Kathleen B.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The primary aim of the present study was to test the feasibility of predicting diagnostic errors in mammography by merging radiologists’ gaze behavior and image characteristics. A secondary aim was to investigate group-based and personalized predictive models for radiologists of variable experience levels.Methods: The study was performed for the clinical task of assessing the likelihood of malignancy of mammographic masses. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions for 40 cases were acquired from four Radiology residents and two breast imaging experts as part of an IRB-approved pilot study. Gaze behavior features were extracted from the eye-tracking data. Computer-generated and BIRADS images features were extracted from the images. Finally, machine learning algorithms were used to merge gaze and image features for predicting human error. Feature selection was thoroughly explored to determine the relative contribution of the various features. Group-based and personalized user modeling was also investigated.Results: Machine learning can be used to predict diagnostic error by merging gaze behavior characteristics from the radiologist and textural characteristics from the image under review. Leveraging data collected from multiple readers produced a reasonable group model [area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.792 ± 0.030]. Personalized user modeling was far more accurate for the more experienced readers (AUC = 0.837 ± 0.029) than for the less experienced ones (AUC = 0.667 ± 0.099). The best performing group-based and personalized predictive models involved combinations of both gaze and image features.Conclusions: Diagnostic errors in mammography can be predicted to a good extent by leveraging the radiologists’ gaze behavior and image content

  16. Preliminary empirical models to predict reductions in total and low flows resulting from afforestation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scott, DF

    1997-04-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models to predict runoff reductions due to afforestation are presented. The models are intended to aid decision-makers and planners who need to evaluate the water requirements of competing land uses at a district or regional scale. Five...

  17. Thermal conductivity of silicic tuffs: predictive formalism and comparison with preliminary experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lappin, A. R.

    1980-07-01

    Performance of both near- and far-field thermomechanical calculations to assess the feasibility of waste disposal in silicic tuffs requires a formalism for predicting thermal conductivity of a broad range of tuffs. This report summarizes the available thermal conductivity data for silicate phases that occur in tuffs and describes several grain-density and conductivity trends which may be expected to result from post-emplacement alteration. A bounding curve is drawn that predicts the minimum theoretical matrix (zero-porosity) conductivity for most tuffs as a function of grain density. Comparison of experimental results with this curve shows that experimental conductivities are consistently lower at any given grain density. Use of the lowered bounding curve and an effective gas conductivity of 0.12 W/m 0 C allows conservative prediction of conductivity for a broad range of tuff types. For the samples measured here, use of the predictive curve allows estimation of conductivity to within 15% or better, with one exception. Application and possible improvement of the formalism are also discussed

  18. Strain Elastography for Prediction of Malignancy in Soft Tissue Tumours--Preliminary Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riishede, I; Ewertsen, C; Carlsen, J

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: To evaluate the ability of strain elastography to predict malignancy in patients with soft tissue tumors, and to compare three evaluation methods of strain elastography: strain ratios, strain histograms and visual scoring. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 60 patients with 61 tumors were analyzed...

  19. Fatigue Life Prediction in Rapid Die Casting - Preliminary Work in View of Current Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuan Huat Ng; Grote, Karl-Heinrich; Baehr, Ruediger

    2007-01-01

    Numerical simulation technique as a prediction tool is slowly adopted in metal casting industry for predicting design modelling solidification analysis. The reasons for this activity is found in the need to further enhance the geometrical design and mechanical properties of the tool design and the correct prediction methodology to fulfil industrial needs. The present state of numerical simulation capabilities in rapid die casting technologies is reviewed and the failure mode mechanisms of thermal fatigue, aimed at developing a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance for predicting the thermal cyclic loading analysis and improvement is presented along with several other methods. The economic benefits of a numerical simulation technique in die casting are limited to tool life time, mechanical properties and design guidance. The extensive computer capabilities of a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance methodology are exploited to provide a solution for flexible design, mechanical properties and mould life time. Related research carried out worldwide by different organisations and academic institutions are discussed

  20. Re-establishing the pecking order: Niche models reliably predict suitable habitats for the reintroduction of red-billed oxpeckers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalle, Riddhika; Combrink, Leigh; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

    2017-03-01

    Distributions of avian mutualists are affected by changes in biotic interactions and environmental conditions driven directly/indirectly by human actions. The range contraction of red-billed oxpeckers ( Buphagus erythrorhynchus ) in South Africa is partly a result of the widespread use of acaracides (i.e., mainly cattle dips), toxic to both ticks and oxpeckers. We predicted the habitat suitability of red-billed oxpeckers in South Africa using ensemble models to assist the ongoing reintroduction efforts and to identify new reintroduction sites for population recovery. The distribution of red-billed oxpeckers was influenced by moderate to high tree cover, woodland habitats, and starling density (a proxy for cavity-nesting birds) with regard to nest-site characteristics. Consumable resources (host and tick density), bioclimate, surface water body density, and proximity to protected areas were other influential predictors. Our models estimated 42,576.88-98,506.98 km 2 of highly suitable habitat (0.5-1) covering the majority of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, a substantial portion of northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Gauteng Province. Niche models reliably predicted suitable habitat in 40%-61% of the reintroduction sites where breeding is currently successful. Ensemble, boosted regression trees and generalized additive models predicted few suitable areas in the Eastern Cape and south of KZN that are part of the historic range. A few southern areas in the Northern Cape, outside the historic range, also had suitable sites predicted. Our models are a promising decision support tool for guiding reintroduction programs at macroscales. Apart from active reintroductions, conservation programs should encourage farmers and/or landowners to use oxpecker-compatible agrochemicals and set up adequate nest boxes to facilitate the population recovery of the red-billed oxpecker, particularly in human-modified landscapes. To ensure long-term conservation success, we suggest that

  1. The reliability of test results from simple test samples in predicting the fatigue performance of automotive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fourlaris, G.; Ellwood, R.; Jones, T.B.

    2007-01-01

    The use of high strength steels (HSS) in automotive components is steadily increasing as automotive designers use modern steel grades to improve structural performance, reduce vehicle weight and enhance crash performance. Weight reduction can be achieved by substituting mild steel with a thinner gauge HSS, however, it must be ensured that no deterioration in performance including fatigue capability occurs. In this study, tests have been carried out to determine the effects that gauge and material strength have on the fatigue performance of a fusion welded automotive suspension arm. Current finite element (FE) modelling and fatigue prediction techniques have been evaluated to determine their reliability when used for thin strip steels. Results have shown the fatigue performance of welded components to be independent of the strength of the parent material for the steel grades studied, with material thickness and joining process the key features determining the fatigue performance. The correlation between the fatigue performance of simple welded samples under uniaxial, constant amplitude loading and complex components under biaxial in service road load data, has been shown to be unreliable. This study also indicates that with the application of modern technologies, such as tailor-welded blanks (TWB), significant weight savings can be achieved. This is demonstrated by a 19% weight reduction with no detrimental effect on the fatigue performance

  2. Reliability prediction for the vehicles equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS and passive safety systems (PSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balbir S. Dhillon

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The human error has been reported as a major root cause in road accidents in today’s world. The human as a driver in road vehicles composed of human, mechanical and electrical components is constantly exposed to changing surroundings (e.g., road conditions, environmentwhich deteriorate the driver’s capacities leading to a potential accident. The auto industries and transportation authorities have realized that similar to other complex and safety sensitive transportation systems, the road vehicles need to rely on both advanced technologies (i.e., Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and Passive Safety Systems (PSS (e.g.,, seatbelts, airbags in order to mitigate the risk of accidents and casualties. In this study, the advantages and disadvantages of ADAS as active safety systems as well as passive safety systems in road vehicles have been discussed. Also, this study proposes models that analyze the interactions between human as a driver and ADAS Warning and Crash Avoidance Systems and PSS in the design of vehicles. Thereafter, the mathematical models have been developed to make reliability prediction at any given time on the road transportation for vehicles equipped with ADAS and PSS. Finally, the implications of this study in the improvement of vehicle designs and prevention of casualties are discussed.

  3. Preliminary study for predicting better methotrexate efficacy in Japanese patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    OpenAIRE

    Hashiguchi, Masayuki; Tsuru, Tomomi; Miyawaki, Kumika; Suzaki, Midori; Hakamata, Jun; Shimizu, Mikiko; Irie, Shin; Mochizuki, Mayumi

    2016-01-01

    Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by systemic inflammatory status, joint destruction, disability, and pain. Methotrexate (MTX) has been confirmed to reduce disease activity and delay or stabilize the development of bone erosions. However, major drawbacks are that patients show great interindividual variability in response to MTX and the unpredictable occurrence of side effects. A strategy for personalized MTX treatment to predict its efficacy a...

  4. Emotion regulation and Residual Depression Predict Psychosocial Functioning in Bipolar Disorder: Preliminary Study

    OpenAIRE

    Becerra, Rodrigo; Cruise, Kate; Harms, Craig; Allan, Alfred; Bassett, Darryl; Hood, Sean; Murray, Greg

    2015-01-01

    This study explores the predictive value of various clinical, neuropsychological, functional, and emotion regulation processes for recovery in Bipolar Disorder. Clinical and demographic information was collected for 27 euthymic or residually depressed BD participants. Seventy one percent of the sample reported some degree of impairment in psychosocial functioning. Both residual depression and problems with emotion regulation were identified as significant predictors of poor psychosocial funct...

  5. A CFD Approach for Prediction of Unintended Porosities in Aluminum Syntactic Foam: A Preliminary Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shizhao; Spangenberg, Jon; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2013-01-01

    Aluminum Syntactic Foam (ASF) is a material with great potential in applications related to lightweight structures and structural damping. However, experimental investigations in literature report that the infiltration process to fabricate ASF often results in incomplete infiltration. Published...... calculates the pressure, velocity and free surface of the aluminum. The results of the numerical model illustrate that this method has great potential of predicting unintended porosities in ASF and thereby optimizing the parameters involved in the infiltration process....

  6. Individual differences in fluid intelligence predicts inattentional blindness in a sample of older adults: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shea, Deirdre M; Fieo, Robert A

    2015-07-01

    Previous research has shown that aging increases susceptibility to inattentional blindness (Graham and Burke, Psychol Aging 26:162, 2011) as well as individual differences in cognitive ability related to working memory and executive functions in separate studies. Therefore, the present study was conducted in an attempt to bridge a gap that involved investigating 'age-sensitive' cognitive abilities that may predict inattentional blindness in a sample of older adults. We investigated whether individual differences in general fluid intelligence and speed of processing would predict inattentional blindness in our sample of older adults. Thirty-six healthy older adults took part in the study. Using the inattentional blindness paradigm developed by Most et al. (Psychol Rev 112:217, 2005), we investigated whether rates of inattentional blindness could be predicted by participant's performance on the Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices and a choice-reaction time task. A Mann-Whitney U test revealed that a higher score on the Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices was significantly associated with lower incidences of inattentional blindness. However, a t test revealed that choice-reaction times were not significantly associated with inattentional blindness. Preliminary results from the present study suggest that individual differences in general fluid intelligence are predictive of inattentional blindness in older adults but not speed of processing. Moreover, our findings are consistent with previous studies that have suggested executive attention control may be the source of these individual differences. These findings also highlight the association between attention and general fluid intelligence and how it may impact environmental awareness. Future research would benefit from repeating these analyses in a larger sample and also including a younger comparison group.

  7. Executive functioning performance predicts subjective and physiological acute stress reactivity: preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrawan, Donny; Yamakawa, Kaori; Kimura, Motohiro; Murakami, Hiroki; Ohira, Hideki

    2012-06-01

    Individual differences in baseline executive functioning (EF) capacities have been shown to predict state anxiety during acute stressor exposure. However, no previous studies have clearly demonstrated the relationship between EF and physiological measures of stress. The present study investigated the efficacy of several well-known EF tests (letter fluency, Stroop test, and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test) in predicting both subjective and physiological stress reactivity during acute psychosocial stress exposure. Our results show that letter fluency served as the best predictor for both types of reactivity. Specifically, the higher the letter fluency score, the lower the acute stress reactivity after controlling for the baseline stress response, as indicated by lower levels of state anxiety, negative mood, salivary cortisol, and skin conductance. Moreover, the predictive power of the letter fluency test remained significant for state anxiety and cortisol indices even after further adjustments for covariates by adding the body mass index (BMI) as a covariate. Thus, good EF performance, as reflected by high letter fluency scores, may dampen acute stress responses, which suggests that EF processes are directly associated with aspects of stress regulation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Interior Noise Predictions in the Preliminary Design of the Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosveld, Ferdinand W.; Cabell, Randolph H.; Boyd, David D.

    2013-01-01

    A prediction scheme was established to compute sound pressure levels in the interior of a simplified cabin model of the second generation Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2) during cruise conditions, while being excited by turbulent boundary layer flow over the fuselage, or by tiltrotor blade loading and thickness noise. Finite element models of the cabin structure, interior acoustic space, and acoustically absorbent (poro-elastic) materials in the fuselage were generated and combined into a coupled structural-acoustic model. Fluctuating power spectral densities were computed according to the Efimtsov turbulent boundary layer excitation model. Noise associated with the tiltrotor blades was predicted in the time domain as fluctuating surface pressures and converted to power spectral densities at the fuselage skin finite element nodes. A hybrid finite element (FE) approach was used to compute the low frequency acoustic cabin response over the frequency range 6-141 Hz with a 1 Hz bandwidth, and the Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) approach was used to predict the interior noise for the 125-8000 Hz one-third octave bands.

  9. Simulation of biomass-steam gasification in fluidized bed reactors: Model setup, comparisons and preliminary predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Linbo; Lim, C Jim; Yue, Guangxi; He, Boshu; Grace, John R

    2016-12-01

    A user-defined solver integrating the solid-gas surface reactions and the multi-phase particle-in-cell (MP-PIC) approach is built based on the OpenFOAM software. The solver is tested against experiments. Then, biomass-steam gasification in a dual fluidized bed (DFB) gasifier is preliminarily predicted. It is found that the predictions agree well with the experimental results. The bed material circulation loop in the DFB can form automatically and the bed height is about 1m. The voidage gradually increases along the height of the bed zone in the bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) of the DFB. The U-bend and cyclone can separate the syngas in the BFB and the flue gas in the circulating fluidized bed. The concentration of the gasification products is relatively higher in the conical transition section, and the dry and nitrogen-free syngas at the BFB outlet is predicted to be composed of 55% H 2 , 20% CO, 20% CO 2 and 5% CH 4 . Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Preliminary results of an attempt to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassardo, C.; Loglisci, N.

    2005-01-01

    In the recent years, there has been a significant growth in the recognition of the soil moisture importance in large-scale hydrology and climate modelling. Soil moisture is a lower boundary condition, which rules the partitioning of energy in terms of sensible and latent heat flux. Wrong estimations of soil moisture lead to wrong simulation of the surface layer evolution and hence precipitations and cloud cover forecasts could be consequently affected. This is true for large scale medium-range weather forecasts as well as for local-scale short range weather forecasts, particularly in those situations in which local convection is well developed. Unfortunately; despite the importance of this physical parameter there are only few soil moisture data sets sparse in time and in space around in the world. Due to this scarcity of soil moisture observations, we developed an alternative method to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models. In this paper are presented the preliminary results of an attempt to verify soil moisture fields predicted by a mesoscale model. The data for the comparison were provided by the simulations of the diagnostic land surface scheme LSPM (Land Surface Process Model), widely used at the Piedmont Regional Weather Service for agro-meteorological purposes. To this end, LSPM was initialized and driven by Synop observations, while the surface (vegetation and soil) parameter values were initialized by ECOCLIMAP global dataset at 1km 2 resolution

  11. Predictive validity of driving-simulator assessments following traumatic brain injury: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lew, Henry L; Poole, John H; Lee, Eun Ha; Jaffe, David L; Huang, Hsiu-Chen; Brodd, Edward

    2005-03-01

    To evaluate whether driving simulator and road test evaluations can predict long-term driving performance, we conducted a prospective study on 11 patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury. Sixteen healthy subjects were also tested to provide normative values on the simulator at baseline. At their initial evaluation (time-1), subjects' driving skills were measured during a 30-minute simulator trial using an automated 12-measure Simulator Performance Index (SPI), while a trained observer also rated their performance using a Driving Performance Inventory (DPI). In addition, patients were evaluated on the road by a certified driving evaluator. Ten months later (time-2), family members observed patients driving for at least 3 hours over 4 weeks and rated their driving performance using the DPI. At time-1, patients were significantly impaired on automated SPI measures of driving skill, including: speed and steering control, accidents, and vigilance to a divided-attention task. These simulator indices significantly predicted the following aspects of observed driving performance at time-2: handling of automobile controls, regulation of vehicle speed and direction, higher-order judgment and self-control, as well as a trend-level association with car accidents. Automated measures of simulator skill (SPI) were more sensitive and accurate than observational measures of simulator skill (DPI) in predicting actual driving performance. To our surprise, the road test results at time-1 showed no significant relation to driving performance at time-2. Simulator-based assessment of patients with brain injuries can provide ecologically valid measures that, in some cases, may be more sensitive than a traditional road test as predictors of long-term driving performance in the community.

  12. [Preliminary evaluation on self-developed dentin porcelain color prediction system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L; Lu, C; Li, X L; Zhu, X M; Zhang, S; Tan, J G

    2016-09-01

    To apply the self-developed dentin porcelain color prediction system in the fabrication of porcelain-fused-to-metal-crown(PFMC), and to evaluate its accuracy in color-matching. Twenty upper central incisors were recruited according to preset criteria, and three PFMC were made for each tooth using three shade-matching techniques. Group A: PFMC were made according to the result of visual color selection; Group B: an spectrophotometer-based color-matching technique was used; Group C: PFMC were fabricated with dentin porcelain powder calculated by the prediction system according to the L(*), a(*), b(*) value measured by a spectrophotometer. Color differences(ΔE) (measured by spectrophotometer) of three groups of crowns were calculated in the cervical, middle, and incisal regions. The results were analyzed using one-way ANOVA. Mean color differences in body regions were: Group A: 3.53±1.80, Group B: 2.86±1.63, Group C: 3.77±1.40(P>0.05), and those in incisal regions were: Group A: 2.70 ± 1.13, Group B: 2.80 ± 0.90, Group C: 3.04 ± 1.03(P>0.05). In cervical region, Group C had greater color difference than Group B(2.78±1.14)(P0.05). PFMC fabricated using self-developed dentin porcelain color prediction system had similar color matching compared with conventional and instrument-based methods.

  13. Bonding prediction in friction stir consolidation of aluminum alloys: A preliminary study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baffari, Dario; Reynolds, Anthony P.; Li, Xiao; Fratini, Livan

    2018-05-01

    Friction Stir Consolidation (FSC) is a solid-state process that results in consolidation of metal powders or chips producing solid billet through severe plastic deformation and the solid-state bonding phenomena. This process can be used both for primary production and for metal scrap recycling. During the FSC process, a rotating die is plunged into a hollow chamber containing the finely divided, unconsolidated material to be processed. In this paper, a FEM numerical model for the prediction of the quality of the consolidated billet is presented. In particular, a dedicated bonding criterion that takes into account the peculiar process mechanics of this innovative technology is proposed.

  14. Preliminary study of tumor heterogeneity in imaging predicts two year survival in pancreatic cancer patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayasree Chakraborty

    Full Text Available Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC is one of the most lethal cancers in the United States with a five-year survival rate of 7.2% for all stages. Although surgical resection is the only curative treatment, currently we are unable to differentiate between resectable patients with occult metastatic disease from those with potentially curable disease. Identification of patients with poor prognosis via early classification would help in initial management including the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy or radiation, or in the choice of postoperative adjuvant therapy. PDAC ranges in appearance from homogeneously isoattenuating masses to heterogeneously hypovascular tumors on CT images; hence, we hypothesize that heterogeneity reflects underlying differences at the histologic or genetic level and will therefore correlate with patient outcome. We quantify heterogeneity of PDAC with texture analysis to predict 2-year survival. Using fuzzy minimum-redundancy maximum-relevance feature selection and a naive Bayes classifier, the proposed features achieve an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.90 and accuracy (Ac of 82.86% with the leave-one-image-out technique and an AUC of 0.80 and Ac of 75.0% with three-fold cross-validation. We conclude that texture analysis can be used to quantify heterogeneity in CT images to accurately predict 2-year survival in patients with pancreatic cancer. From these data, we infer differences in the biological evolution of pancreatic cancer subtypes measurable in imaging and identify opportunities for optimized patient selection for therapy.

  15. Preliminary investigation to use Bayesian networks in predicting NOx, CO, CO2 and HC emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karri, V.; Hafez, H.A.; Kristiansen, M.

    2005-01-01

    A Bayesian network was used to characterize Lister-Petter diesel combustion engine emissions. Three sets of tests were conducted: (1) full open throttle; (2) 68 per cent closed throttle; and (3) 58 per cent closed throttle. The first test simulated normal lean burning conditions, while the last 2 tests simulated a clogged air filter. Experiments were conducted in an engine generator assembly with a fixed speed governor of 1500 rpm. Electrochemical sensors were used to detect nitrogen oxide (NO x ); carbon dioxide (CO 2 ); carbon monoxide (CO); hydrocarbons; and particulate matter. Engine oil, engine outlet, and engine inlet and exhaust temperatures were digitally measured. Data from 20 experimental sets of tests were used to train, test and project accurate emission levels. The Bayesian network model was built using input variables and measured output parameters related to the exhaust components. Human knowledge was used to build relationships between defined nodes and a path condition algorithm. An estimation-maximization algorithm was used. Results of the validation study showed that the Bayesian network accurately predicted emissions levels. It was concluded that it is possible to predict engine emission outputs with probable acceptable levels using Bayesian network modelling techniques and limited experimental data. 33 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs

  16. Preliminary study of tumor heterogeneity in imaging predicts two year survival in pancreatic cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Jayasree; Langdon-Embry, Liana; Cunanan, Kristen M; Escalon, Joanna G; Allen, Peter J; Lowery, Maeve A; O'Reilly, Eileen M; Gönen, Mithat; Do, Richard G; Simpson, Amber L

    2017-01-01

    Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal cancers in the United States with a five-year survival rate of 7.2% for all stages. Although surgical resection is the only curative treatment, currently we are unable to differentiate between resectable patients with occult metastatic disease from those with potentially curable disease. Identification of patients with poor prognosis via early classification would help in initial management including the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy or radiation, or in the choice of postoperative adjuvant therapy. PDAC ranges in appearance from homogeneously isoattenuating masses to heterogeneously hypovascular tumors on CT images; hence, we hypothesize that heterogeneity reflects underlying differences at the histologic or genetic level and will therefore correlate with patient outcome. We quantify heterogeneity of PDAC with texture analysis to predict 2-year survival. Using fuzzy minimum-redundancy maximum-relevance feature selection and a naive Bayes classifier, the proposed features achieve an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.90 and accuracy (Ac) of 82.86% with the leave-one-image-out technique and an AUC of 0.80 and Ac of 75.0% with three-fold cross-validation. We conclude that texture analysis can be used to quantify heterogeneity in CT images to accurately predict 2-year survival in patients with pancreatic cancer. From these data, we infer differences in the biological evolution of pancreatic cancer subtypes measurable in imaging and identify opportunities for optimized patient selection for therapy.

  17. Rainfall prediction using fuzzy inference system for preliminary micro-hydro power plant planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suprapty, B.; Malani, R.; Minardi, J.

    2018-04-01

    East Kalimantan is a very rich area with water sources, in the form of river streams that branch to the remote areas. The conditions of natural potency like this become alternative solution for area that has not been reached by the availability of electric energy from State Electricity Company. The river water in selected location (catchment area) which is channelled to the canal, pipeline or penstock can be used to drive the waterwheel or turbine. The amount of power obtained depends on the volume/water discharge and headwater (the effective height between the reservoir and the turbine). The water discharge is strongly influenced by the amount of rainfall. Rainfall is the amount of water falling on the flat surface for a certain period measured, in units of mm3, above the horizontal surface in the absence of evaporation, run-off and infiltration. In this study, the prediction of rainfall is done in the area of East Kalimantan which has 13 watersheds which, in principle, have the potential for the construction of Micro Hydro Power Plant. Rainfall time series data is modelled by using AR (Auto Regressive) Model based on FIS (Fuzzy Inference System). The FIS structure of the training results is then used to predict the next two years rainfall.

  18. Increasing of prediction reliability of calcium carbonate scale formation in heat exchanger of secondary coolant circuits of thermal and nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tret'yakov, O.V.; Kritskij, V.G.; Styazhkin, P.S.

    1991-01-01

    Calcium carbonate scale formation in the secondary circuit heat exchanger of thermal and nuclear power plants is investigated. A model of calcium-carbonate scale formation providing quite reliable prediction of process running and the possibility of its control affecting the parameters of hydrochemical regime (HCR) is developed. The results can be used when designing the automatic-control system of HCR

  19. A preliminary investigation into the prevalence and prediction of problematic cell phone use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetaniuk, Peter

    2014-03-01

    Likening mobile phone use dependency to the classification of excessive behaviors may be necessarily equivalent in seriousness to previously established addictions such as problematic computing or excessive gambling. The aim of the study explores into the behavior of excessive use of mobile phones as a pathological behavior. Two studies investigated criteria for problematic mobile phone usage by examining student (Study 1, N = 301) and nonstudent (Study 2, N = 362) responses to a set of adapted mobile phone addiction inventories. Study 1 investigated cell phone addiction inventories as constructs designed to measure problematic cell phone use. Additionally, Study 2 sought to predict age, depression, extraversion, emotional stability, impulse control, and self-esteem as independent variables that augment respondents' perceptions of problematic use. The results from Study 1 and Study 2 indicate that 10 to 25% of the participants tested exhibited problematic cell phone usage. Additionally, age, depression, extraversion, and low impulse control are the most suitable predictors for problematic use. The results of the two studies indicate that problematic mobile phone use does occur and ought to be taken seriously by the psychological community. Presently, there is limited data providing conclusive evidence for a comprehensible categorization of cell phone addiction, as well as a unified explanatory model specific to problematic mobile phone use. Studies such as this one may contribute substantial findings, adding scientific significance, and offering a valuable submission for the ongoing progress of creating intervention frameworks relative to "virtual addictions".

  20. A preliminary investigation into the prevalence and prediction of problematic cell phone use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetaniuk, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Background and aims: Likening mobile phone use dependency to the classification of excessive behaviors may be necessarily equivalent in seriousness to previously established addictions such as problematic computing or excessive gambling. The aim of the study explores into the behavior of excessive use of mobile phones as a pathological behavior. Methods: Two studies investigated criteria for problematic mobile phone usage by examining student (Study 1, N = 301) and nonstudent (Study 2, N = 362) responses to a set of adapted mobile phone addiction inventories. Study 1 investigated cell phone addiction inventories as constructs designed to measure problematic cell phone use. Additionally, Study 2 sought to predict age, depression, extraversion, emotional stability, impulse control, and self-esteem as independent variables that augment respondents’ perceptions of problematic use. Results: The results from Study 1 and Study 2 indicate that 10 to 25% of the participants tested exhibited problematic cell phone usage. Additionally, age, depression, extraversion, and low impulse control are the most suitable predictors for problematic use. Conclusions: The results of the two studies indicate that problematic mobile phone use does occur and ought to be taken seriously by the psychological community. Presently, there is limited data providing conclusive evidence for a comprehensible categorization of cell phone addiction, as well as a unified explanatory model specific to problematic mobile phone use. Studies such as this one may contribute substantial findings, adding scientific significance, and offering a valuable submission for the ongoing progress of creating intervention frameworks relative to “virtual addictions”. PMID:25215213

  1. A preliminary study on sentinel lymph node biopsy. Feasibility and predictive ability in oral cavity cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chikamatsu, Kazuaki; Kamada, Hideo; Ninomiya, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Katsumasa; Sakurai, Tsutomu; Oriuchi, Noboru; Furuya, Nobuhiko

    2004-01-01

    The main factor that affects the prognosis of patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) is regional lymph node metastases. For this reason, the accurate evaluation of neck metastases is required for neck management. This study investigates the sentinel lymph node identification and the accuracy of the histopathology of the sentinel lymph node in patients with HNC. Eleven patients with histologically proven oral squamous cell carcinoma accessible to radiocolloid injection were enrolled in this study. Using both lymphoscintigraphy and a handheld gamma probe, the sentinel lymph node could be identified in all 11 patients. Subsequently, the sentinel lymph nodes and the neck dissection specimen were examined for lymph node involvement due to tumor. The histopathology of sentinel lymph nodes was consistent with the pathological N classification in all 11 patients. Furthermore, the histopathology of sentinel lymph nodes was superior to physical examination, computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) scan. The results of this study indicate that sentinel lymph node identification is technically feasible and predicts cervical metastases in patients with oral cavity cancer. This may be a useful diagnostic technique for identifying lymph node disease in staging lymph node dissection. (author)

  2. Prediction of core and lower extremity strains and sprains in collegiate football players: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkerson, Gary B; Giles, Jessica L; Seibel, Dustin K

    2012-01-01

    Poor core stability is believed to increase vulnerability to uncontrolled joint displacements throughout the kinetic chain between the foot and the lumbar spine. To assess the value of preparticipation measurements as predictors of core or lower extremity strains or sprains in collegiate football players. Cohort study. National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Subdivision football program. All team members who were present for a mandatory physical examination on the day before preseason practice sessions began (n = 83). Preparticipation administration of surveys to assess low back, knee, and ankle function; documentation of knee and ankle injury history; determination of body mass index; 4 different assessments of core muscle endurance; and measurement of step-test recovery heart rate. All injuries were documented throughout the preseason practice period and 11-game season. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to identify dichotomized predictive factors that best discriminated injured from uninjured status. The 75th and 50th percentiles were evaluated as alternative cutpoints for dichotomization of injury predictors. Players with ≥2 of 3 potentially modifiable risk factors related to core function had 2 times greater risk for injury than those with football injury risk factors that can be identified on preparticipation screening. These predictors need to be assessed in a prospective manner with a larger sample of collegiate football players.

  3. Does vitamin D deficiency predict early conversion of clinically isolated syndrome? A preliminary Egyptian study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaheen, Hala A; Sayed, Sayed S; Daker, Lamiaa I; AbdelAziz, Hossam Eldin; Taha, Mohamed A

    2018-03-15

    It has been suggested that vitamin D influences the immunoregulation and subsequently affects the risk for conversion of clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (MS). There is little information regarding the relationship between levels of vitamin D and CIS conversion to MS in Egyptian patients. It is to study contribution of vitamin D deficiency to conversion of CIS to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) and correlation of vitamin D level to cognitive and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) results. A longitudinal prospective case control study was conducted on 43 Egyptian patients diagnosed as CIS according to McDonald criteria (2010). Clinical presentation, brain MRI and 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were evaluated at baseline and after one-year follow-up. The CIS patients that converted to MS showed significant lower vitamin D level (p < 0.001) than the non-convertors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the CIS patients with lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D level (p < 0.001) are at higher risk for early conversion to MS. There was a significant positive correlation between the vitamin D level and PASAT (r = 0.36, p = 0.02). It was found that there was a significant negative correlation between vitamin D level and MRI T 2 load (r = -0.38, p = 0.01). The low level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D may predict early conversion to clinically definite MS. Early vitamin D supplementation is recommended in patients with CIS.

  4. The Cambridge Otology Quality of Life Questionnaire: an otology-specific patient-recorded outcome measure. A paper describing the instrument design and a report of preliminary reliability and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T P C; Moualed, D; Paul, A; Ronan, N; Tysome, J R; Donnelly, N P; Cook, R; Axon, P R

    2015-04-01

    The Cambridge Otology Quality of Life Questionnaire (COQOL) is a patient-recorded outcome measurement (PROM) designed to quantify the quality of life of patients attending otology clinics. Item-reduction model. A systematically designed long-form version (74 items) was tested with patient focus groups before being presented to adult otology patients (n. 137). Preliminary item analysis tested reliability, reducing the COQOL to 24 questions. This was then presented in conjunction with the SF-36 (V1) questionnaire to a total of 203 patients. Subsequently, these were re-presented at T + 3 months, and patients recorded whether they felt their condition had improved, deteriorated or remained the same. Non-responders were contacted by post. A correlation between COQOL scores and patient perception of change was examined to analyse content validity. Teaching hospital and university psychology department. Adult patients attending otology clinics with a wide range of otological conditions. Item reliability measured by item–total correlation, internal consistency and test– retest reliability. Validity measured by correlation between COQOL scores and patient-reported symptom change. Reliability: the COQOL showed excellent internal consistency at both initial presentation (a = 0.90) and 3 months later (a = 0.93). Validity: One-way analysis of variance showed a significant difference between groups reporting change and those reporting no change in quality of life (F(2, 80) = 5.866, P < 0.01). The COQOL is the first otology-specific PROM. Initial studies demonstrate excellent reliability and encouraging preliminary criterion validity: further studies will allow a deeper validation of the instrument.

  5. How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilker, Sarah; Pfeiffer, Anett; Kolassa, Stephan; Koslowski, Daniela; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

    2015-01-01

    While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

  6. How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Wilker

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. Methods: We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. Results: All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. Conclusions: As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

  7. Corticospinal integrity and motor impairment predict outcomes after excitatory repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chih-Jou; Wang, Chih-Pin; Tsai, Po-Yi; Chan, Rai-Chi; Lin, Shan-Hui; Lin, Fu-Gong; Hsieh, Chin-Yi

    2015-01-01

    To identify the effective predictors for therapeutic outcomes based on intermittent theta-burst stimulation (iTBS). A sham-controlled, double-blind parallel study design. A tertiary hospital. People with stroke (N=72) who presented with unilateral hemiplegia. Ten consecutive sessions of real or sham iTBS were implemented with the aim of enhancing hand function. Patients were categorized into 4 groups according to the presence (MEP+) or absence (MEP-) of motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) and grip strength according to the Medical Research Council (MRC) scale. Cortical excitability, Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT), finger-tapping task (FT), and simple reaction time were performed before and after the sessions. MEPs and the MRC scale were predictive of iTBS therapeutic outcomes. Group A (MEP+, MRC>1) exhibited the greatest WMFT change (7.6±2.3, P1; 5.2±2.2 score change) and group C (MEP-, MRC=0; 2.3±1.5 score change). These improvements were correlated significantly with baseline motor function and ipsilesional maximum MEP amplitude. The effectiveness of iTBS modulation for poststroke motor enhancement depends on baseline hand grip strength and the presence of MEPs. Our findings indicate that establishing neurostimulation strategies based on the proposed electrophysiological and clinical criteria can allow iTBS to be executed with substantial precision. Effective neuromodulatory strategies can be formulated by using electrophysiological features and clinical presentation information as guidelines. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Predictive models applied to groundwater level forecasting: a preliminary experience on the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brozzo, Gianpiero; Doveri, Marco; Lelli, Matteo; Scozzari, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    Computer-based decision support systems are getting a growing interest for water managing authorities and water distribution companies. This work discusses a preliminary experience in the application of computational intelligence in a hydrological modeling framework, regarding the study area of the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy). Two sites in the studied area, corresponding to two distinct groups of wells (Battifollo and Fornola) are managed by the local drinkable water distribution company (ACAM Acque), which serves the area of La Spezia, on the Ligurian coast. Battifollo has 9 wells with a total extraction rate of about 240 liters per second, while Fornola has 44 wells with an extraction rate of about 900 liters per second. Objective of this work is to make use of time series coming from long-term monitoring activities in order to assess the trend of the groundwater level with respect to a set of environmental and exploitation parameters; this is accomplished by the experimentation of a suitable model, eligible to be used as a predictor. This activity moves on from the modeling of the system behavior, based on a set of Input/Output data, in order to characterize it without necessarily a prior knowledge of any deterministic mechanism (system identification). In this context, data series collected by continuous hydrological monitoring instrumentation installed in the studied sites, together with meteorological and water extraction data, have been analyzed in order to assess the applicability and performance of a predictive model of the groundwater level. A mixed approach (both data driven and process-based) has been experimented on the whole dataset relating to the last ten years of continuous monitoring activity. The system identification approach presented here is based on the integration of an adaptive technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and a blind deterministic identification approach. According to this concept, the behavior of

  9. Predicting Treatment Outcomes from Prefrontal Cortex Activation for Self-Harming Patients with Borderline Personality Disorder: A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruocco, Anthony C.; Rodrigo, Achala H.; McMain, Shelley F.; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Ayaz, Hasan; Links, Paul S.

    2016-01-01

    Self-harm is a potentially lethal symptom of borderline personality disorder (BPD) that often improves with dialectical behavior therapy (DBT). While DBT is effective for reducing self-harm in many patients with BPD, a small but significant number of patients either does not improve in treatment or ends treatment prematurely. Accordingly, it is crucial to identify factors that may prospectively predict which patients are most likely to benefit from and remain in treatment. In the present preliminary study, 29 actively self-harming patients with BPD completed brain-imaging procedures probing activation of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) during impulse control prior to beginning DBT and after 7 months of treatment. Patients that reduced their frequency of self-harm the most over treatment displayed lower levels of neural activation in the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) prior to beginning treatment, and they showed the greatest increases in activity within this region after 7 months of treatment. Prior to starting DBT, treatment non-completers demonstrated greater activation than treatment-completers in the medial PFC and right inferior frontal gyrus. Reductions in self-harm over the treatment period were associated with increases in activity in right DLPFC even after accounting for improvements in depression, mania, and BPD symptom severity. These findings suggest that pre-treatment patterns of activation in the PFC underlying impulse control may be prospectively associated with improvements in self-harm and treatment attrition for patients with BPD treated with DBT. PMID:27242484

  10. Predicting Treatment Outcomes from Prefrontal Cortex Activation for Self-Harming Patients with Borderline Personality Disorder: A Preliminary Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Charles Ruocco

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Self-harm is a potentially lethal symptom of borderline personality disorder (BPD that often improves with dialectical behavior therapy (DBT. While DBT is effective for reducing self-harm in many patients with BPD, a small but significant number of patients either does not improve in treatment or ends treatment prematurely. Accordingly, it is crucial to identify factors that may prospectively predict which patients are most likely to benefit from and remain in treatment. In the present preliminary study, twenty-nine actively self-harming patients with BPD completed brain-imaging procedures probing activation of the prefrontal cortex during impulse control prior to beginning DBT and after seven months of treatment. Patients that reduced their frequency of self-harm the most over treatment displayed lower levels of neural activation in the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex prior to beginning treatment, and they showed the greatest increases in activity within this region after seven months of treatment. Prior to starting DBT, treatment non-completers demonstrated greater activation than treatment-completers in the medial prefrontal cortex and right inferior frontal gyrus. Reductions in self-harm over the treatment period were associated with increases in activity in right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex even after accounting for improvements in depression, mania, and BPD symptom severity. These findings suggest that pre-treatment patterns of activation in the prefrontal cortex underlying impulse control may be prospectively associated with improvements in self-harm and treatment attrition for patients with BPD treated with DBT.

  11. Predicting Treatment Outcomes from Prefrontal Cortex Activation for Self-Harming Patients with Borderline Personality Disorder: A Preliminary Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruocco, Anthony C; Rodrigo, Achala H; McMain, Shelley F; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Ayaz, Hasan; Links, Paul S

    2016-01-01

    Self-harm is a potentially lethal symptom of borderline personality disorder (BPD) that often improves with dialectical behavior therapy (DBT). While DBT is effective for reducing self-harm in many patients with BPD, a small but significant number of patients either does not improve in treatment or ends treatment prematurely. Accordingly, it is crucial to identify factors that may prospectively predict which patients are most likely to benefit from and remain in treatment. In the present preliminary study, 29 actively self-harming patients with BPD completed brain-imaging procedures probing activation of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) during impulse control prior to beginning DBT and after 7 months of treatment. Patients that reduced their frequency of self-harm the most over treatment displayed lower levels of neural activation in the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) prior to beginning treatment, and they showed the greatest increases in activity within this region after 7 months of treatment. Prior to starting DBT, treatment non-completers demonstrated greater activation than treatment-completers in the medial PFC and right inferior frontal gyrus. Reductions in self-harm over the treatment period were associated with increases in activity in right DLPFC even after accounting for improvements in depression, mania, and BPD symptom severity. These findings suggest that pre-treatment patterns of activation in the PFC underlying impulse control may be prospectively associated with improvements in self-harm and treatment attrition for patients with BPD treated with DBT.

  12. Using image analysis as a tool for assessment of prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancer: How reliable is it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark C Lloyd

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Estrogen receptor (ER, progesterone receptor (PR and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2 are important and well-established prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancers and routinely tested on patient′s tumor samples by immunohistochemical (IHC study. The accuracy of these test results has substantial impact on patient management. A critical factor that contributes to the result is the interpretation (scoring of IHC. This study investigates how computerized image analysis can play a role in a reliable scoring, and identifies potential pitfalls with common methods. Materials and Methods : Whole slide images of 33 invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC (10 ER and 23 HER2 were scored by pathologist under the light microscope and confirmed by another pathologist. The HER2 results were additionally confirmed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH. The scoring criteria were adherent to the guidelines recommended by the American Society of Clinical Oncology/College of American Pathologists. Whole slide stains were then scored by commercially available image analysis algorithms from Definiens (Munich, Germany and Aperio Technologies (Vista, CA, USA. Each algorithm was modified specifically for each marker and tissue. The results were compared with the semi-quantitative manual scoring, which was considered the gold standard in this study. Results : For HER2 positive group, each algorithm scored 23/23 cases within the range established by the pathologist. For ER, both algorithms scored 10/10 cases within range. The performance of each algorithm varies somewhat from the percentage of staining as compared to the pathologist′s reading. Conclusions : Commercially available computerized image analysis can be useful in the evaluation of ER and HER2 IHC results. In order to achieve accurate results either manual pathologist region selection is necessary, or an automated region selection tool must be employed. Specificity can

  13. A preliminary examination of the validity and reliability of a new brief rating scale for symptom domains of psychosis: Brief Evaluation of Psychosis Symptom Domains (BE-PSD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi, Hiroyoshi; Fervaha, Gagan; Lee, Jimmy; Agid, Ofer; Remington, Gary

    2016-09-01

    Brief assessments have the potential to be widely adopted as outcome measures in research but also routine clinical practice. Existing brief rating scales that assess symptoms of schizophrenia or psychosis have a number of limitations including inability to capture five symptom domains of psychosis and a lack of clearly defined operational anchor points for scoring. We developed a new brief rating scale for five symptom domains of psychosis with clearly defined operational anchor points - the Brief Evaluation of Psychosis Symptom Domains (BE-PSD). To examine the psychometric properties of the BE-PSD, fifty patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder were included in this preliminary cross-sectional study. To test the convergent and discriminant validity of the BE-PSD, correlational analyses were employed using the consensus Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) five-factor model. To examine the inter-rater reliability of the BE-PSD, single measures intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated for 11 patients. The BE-PSD domain scores demonstrated high convergent validity with the corresponding PANSS factor score (rs = 0.81-0.93) as well as good discriminant validity, as evidenced by lower correlations with the other PANSS factors (rs = 0.23-0.62). The BE-PSD also demonstrated excellent inter-rater reliability for each of the domain scores and the total scores (ICC(2,1) = 0.79-0.96). The present preliminary study found the BE-PSD measure to be valid and reliable; however, further studies are needed to establish the psychometric properties of the BE-PSD because of the limitations such as the small sample size and lacking data on test-retest reliability or sensitivity to change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

    2016-05-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Acoustic signal emission monitoring as a novel method to predict steam pops during radiofrequency ablation: preliminary observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chik, William W B; Kosobrodov, Roman; Bhaskaran, Abhishek; Barry, Michael Anthony Tony; Nguyen, Doan Trang; Pouliopoulos, Jim; Byth, Karen; Sivagangabalan, Gopal; Thomas, Stuart P; Ross, David L; McEwan, Alistair; Kovoor, Pramesh; Thiagalingam, Aravinda

    2015-04-01

    Steam pop is an explosive rupture of cardiac tissue caused by tissue overheating above 100 °C, resulting in steam formation, predisposing to serious complications associated with radiofrequency (RF) ablations. However, there are currently no reliable techniques to predict the occurrence of steam pops. We propose the utility of acoustic signals emitted during RF ablation as a novel method to predict steam pop formation and potentially prevent serious complications. Radiofrequency generator parameters (power, impedance, and temperature) were temporally recorded during ablations performed in an in vitro bovine myocardial model. The acoustic system consisted of HTI-96-min hydrophone, microphone preamplifier, and sound card connected to a laptop computer. The hydrophone has the frequency range of 2 Hz to 30 kHz and nominal sensitivity in the range -240 to -165 dB. The sound was sampled at 96 kHz with 24-bit resolution. Output signal from the hydrophone was fed into the camera audio input to synchronize the video stream. An automated system was developed for the detection and analysis of acoustic events. Nine steam pops were observed. Three distinct sounds were identified as warning signals, each indicating rapid steam formation and its release from tissue. These sounds had a broad frequency range up to 6 kHz with several spectral peaks around 2-3 kHz. Subjectively, these warning signals were perceived as separate loud clicks, a quick succession of clicks, or continuous squeaking noise. Characteristic acoustic signals were identified preceding 80% of pops occurrence. Six cardiologists were able to identify 65% of acoustic signals accurately preceding the pop. An automated system identified the characteristic warning signals in 85% of cases. The mean time from the first acoustic signal to pop occurrence was 46 ± 20 seconds. The automated system had 72.7% sensitivity and 88.9% specificity for predicting pops. Easily identifiable characteristic acoustic emissions

  16. A biogeochemical model of Lake Pusiano (North Italy and its use in the predictability of phytoplankton blooms: first preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro OGGIONI

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the first preliminary results of the DYRESM-CAEDYM model application to a mid size sub-alpine lake (Lake Pusiano North Italy. The in-lake modelling is a part of a more general project called Pusiano Integrated Lake/Catchment project (PILE whose final goal is to understand the hydrological and trophic relationship between lake and catchment, supporting the restoration plan of the lake through field data analysis and numerical models. DYRESM is a 1D-3D hydrodynamics model for predicting the vertical profile of temperature, salinity and density. CAEDYM is multi-component ecological model, used here as a phytoplankton-zooplankton processes based model, which includes algorithms to simulate the nutrient cycles within the water column as well as the air-water gas exchanges and the water-sediments fluxes. The first results of the hydrodynamics simulations underline the capability of the model to accurately simulate the surface temperature seasonal trend and the thermal gradient whereas, during summer stratification, the model underestimates the bottom temperature of around 2 °C. The ecological model describes the epilimnetic reactive phosphorus (PO4 depletion (due to the phytoplankton uptake and the increase in PO4 concentrations in the deepest layers of the lake (due to the mineralization processes and the sediments release. In terms of phytoplankton dynamics the model accounts for the Planktothrix rubescens dominance during the whole season, whereas it seems to underestimate the peak in primary production related to both the simulated algal groups (P. rubescens and the rest of the other species aggregated in a single class. The future aims of the project are to complete the model parameterization and to connect the in-lake and the catchment modelling in order to gain an integrated view of the lake-catchment ecosystem as well as to develop a three dimensional model of the lake.

  17. Reliability of the modified Gross Motor Function Measure-88 (GMFM-88) for children with both Spastic Cerebral Palsy and Cerebral Visual Impairment: A preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salavati, M; Krijnen, W P; Rameckers, E A A; Looijestijn, P L; Maathuis, C G B; van der Schans, C P; Steenbergen, B

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this study were to adapt the Gross Motor Function Measure-88 (GMFM-88) for children with Cerebral Palsy (CP) and Cerebral Visual Impairment (CVI) and to determine the test-retest and interobserver reliability of the adapted version. Sixteen paediatric physical therapists familiar with CVI participated in the adaptation process. The Delphi method was used to gain consensus among a panel of experts. Seventy-seven children with CP and CVI (44 boys and 33 girls, aged between 50 and 144 months) participated in this study. To assess test-retest and interobserver reliability, the GMFM-88 was administered twice within three weeks (Mean=9 days, SD=6 days) by trained paediatric physical therapists, one of whom was familiar with the child and one who wasn't. Percentages of identical scores, Cronbach's alphas and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were computed for each dimension level. All experts agreed on the proposed adaptations of the GMFM-88 for children with CP and CVI. Test-retest reliability ICCs for dimension scores were between 0.94 and 1.00, mean percentages of identical scores between 29 and 71, and interobserver reliability ICCs of the adapted GMFM-88 were 0.99-1.00 for dimension scores. Mean percentages of identical scores varied between 53 and 91. Test-retest and interobserver reliability of the GMFM-88-CVI for children with CP and CVI was excellent. Internal consistency of dimension scores lay between 0.97 and 1.00. The psychometric properties of the adapted GMFM-88 for children with CP and CVI are reliable and comparable to the original GMFM-88. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Influence of model specifications on the reliabilities of genomic prediction in a Swedish-Finnish red breed cattle population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rius-Vilarrasa, E; Strandberg, E; Fikse, W F

    2012-01-01

    Using a combined multi-breed reference population, this study explored the influence of model specification and the effect of including a polygenic effect on the reliability of genomic breeding values (DGV and GEBV). The combined reference population consisted of 2986 Swedish Red Breed (SRB) and ...

  19. Predicting brain age with deep learning from raw imaging data results in a reliable and heritable biomarker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cole, James H.; Poudel, Rudra P. K.; Tsagkrasoulis, Dimosthenis; Caan, Matthan W. A.; Steves, Claire; Spector, Tim D.; Montana, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    Machine learning analysis of neuroimaging data can accurately predict chronological age in healthy people. Deviations from healthy brain ageing have been associated with cognitive impairment and disease. Here we sought to further establish the credentials of 'brain-predicted age' as a biomarker of

  20. Reliable and accurate point-based prediction of cumulative infiltration using soil readily available characteristics: A comparison between GMDH, ANN, and MLR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmati, Mehdi

    2017-08-01

    Developing accurate and reliable pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) to predict soil non-readily available characteristics is one of the most concerned topic in soil science and selecting more appropriate predictors is a crucial factor in PTFs' development. Group method of data handling (GMDH), which finds an approximate relationship between a set of input and output variables, not only provide an explicit procedure to select the most essential PTF input variables, but also results in more accurate and reliable estimates than other mostly applied methodologies. Therefore, the current research was aimed to apply GMDH in comparison with multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to develop several PTFs to predict soil cumulative infiltration point-basely at specific time intervals (0.5-45 min) using soil readily available characteristics (RACs). In this regard, soil infiltration curves as well as several soil RACs including soil primary particles (clay (CC), silt (Si), and sand (Sa)), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), bulk (Db) and particle (Dp) densities, organic carbon (OC), wet-aggregate stability (WAS), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil antecedent (θi) and field saturated (θfs) water contents were measured at 134 different points in Lighvan watershed, northwest of Iran. Then, applying GMDH, MLR, and ANN methodologies, several PTFs have been developed to predict cumulative infiltrations using two sets of selected soil RACs including and excluding Ks. According to the test data, results showed that developed PTFs by GMDH and MLR procedures using all soil RACs including Ks resulted in more accurate (with E values of 0.673-0.963) and reliable (with CV values lower than 11 percent) predictions of cumulative infiltrations at different specific time steps. In contrast, ANN procedure had lower accuracy (with E values of 0.356-0.890) and reliability (with CV values up to 50 percent) compared to GMDH and MLR. The results also revealed

  1. Preliminary study for the reliability Assurance on results and procedure of the out-pile mechanical characterization test for a fuel assembly; Lateral Vibration Test (I)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kang Hee; Yoon, Kyung Hee; Kim, Hyung Kyu

    2007-01-01

    The reliability assurance with respect to the test procedure and results of the out-pile mechanical performance test for the nuclear fuel assembly is an essential task to assure the test quality and to get a permission for fuel loading into the commercial reactor core. For the case of vibration test, proper management and appropriate calibration of instruments and devices used in the test, various efforts to minimize the possible error during the test and signal acquisition process are needed. Additionally, the deep understanding both of the theoretical assumption and simplification for the signal processing/modal analysis and of the functions of the devices used in the test were highly required. In this study, the overall procedure and result of lateral vibration test were assembly's mechanical characterization were briefly introduced. A series of measures to assure and improve the reliability of the vibration test were discussed

  2. Preliminary study for the reliability Assurance on results and procedure of the out-pile mechanical characterization test for a fuel assembly; Lateral Vibration Test (I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kang Hee; Yoon, Kyung Hee; Kim, Hyung Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    The reliability assurance with respect to the test procedure and results of the out-pile mechanical performance test for the nuclear fuel assembly is an essential task to assure the test quality and to get a permission for fuel loading into the commercial reactor core. For the case of vibration test, proper management and appropriate calibration of instruments and devices used in the test, various efforts to minimize the possible error during the test and signal acquisition process are needed. Additionally, the deep understanding both of the theoretical assumption and simplification for the signal processing/modal analysis and of the functions of the devices used in the test were highly required. In this study, the overall procedure and result of lateral vibration test were assembly's mechanical characterization were briefly introduced. A series of measures to assure and improve the reliability of the vibration test were discussed.

  3. Limited Sampling Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Statins: Reliability of a Single Time Point for AUC Prediction for Pravastatin and Simvastatin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, N R

    2016-02-01

    Statins are widely prescribed medicines and are also available in fixed dose combinations with other drugs to treat several chronic ailments. Given the safety issues associated with statins it may be important to assess feasibility of a single time concentration strategy for prediction of exposure (area under the curve; AUC). The peak concentration (Cmax) was used to establish relationship with AUC separately for pravastatin and simvastatin using published pharmacokinetic data. The regression equations generated for statins were used to predict the AUC values from various literature references. The fold difference of the observed divided by predicted values along with correlation coefficient (r) were used to judge the feasibility of the single time point approach. Both pravastatin and simvastatin showed excellent correlation of Cmax vs. AUC values with r value ≥ 0.9638 (pAUC predictions and >81% of the predicted values were in a narrower range of >0.75-fold but AUC values showed excellent correlation for pravastatin (r=0.9708, n=115; pAUC predictions. On the basis of the present work, it is feasible to develop a single concentration time point strategy that coincides with Cmax occurrence for both pravastatin and simvastatin from a therapeutic drug monitoring perspective. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  4. Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong

    1992-07-01

    This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

  5. Determination of Multiphase Flow Meter Reliability and Development of Correction Charts for the Prediction of Oilfield Fluid Flow Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel S. MOFUNLEWI

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of field testing of Multiphase Flow Meter (MPFM is to show whether its accuracy compares favourably with that of the Test Separator in accurately measuring the three production phases (oil, gas and water as well as determining meter reliability in field environment. This study evaluates field test results of the MPFM as compared to reference conventional test separators. Generally, results show that MPFM compares favourably with Test Separator within the specified range of accuracy.At the moment, there is no legislation for meter proving technique for MPFM. However, this study has developed calibration charts that can be used to correct and improve meter accuracy.

  6. Rapid and reliable predictions of the radiological consequences of accidents as an aid to decisions on countermeasures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, G.N.

    1990-01-01

    The rapid and reliable assessment of the potential radiological consequences of an accident at a nuclear installation is an essential input to timely decisions on the effective introduction of countermeasures. There have been considerable improvements over the past decade or so in the methods used for such assessments and, in particular, in the development of computerized systems. The need for such systems is described, together with their current state of development and possible future trends. This topic has featured prominently within the CEC's Radiation Protection Research Programme and is likely to do so far the foreseeable future. The main features of this research, its achievements to date and future directions are described

  7. Pocket Handbook on Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-09-01

    exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

  8. Reliable Prediction of Insulin Resistance by a School-Based Fitness Test in Middle-School Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd Varness

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. (1 Determine the predictive value of a school-based test of cardiovascular fitness (CVF for insulin resistance (IR; (2 compare a “school-based” prediction of IR to a “laboratory-based” prediction, using various measures of fitness and body composition. Methods. Middle school children (n=82 performed the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER, a school-based CVF test, and underwent evaluation of maximal oxygen consumption treadmill testing (VO2 max, body composition (percent body fat and BMI z score, and IR (derived homeostasis model assessment index [HOMAIR]. Results. PACER showed a strong correlation with VO2 max/kg (rs = 0.83, P<.001 and with HOMAIR (rs = −0.60, P<.001. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that a school-based model (using PACER and BMI z score predicted IR similar to a laboratory-based model (using VO2 max/kg of lean body mass and percent body fat. Conclusions. The PACER is a valid school-based test of CVF, is predictive of IR, and has a similar relationship to IR when compared to complex laboratory-based testing. Simple school-based measures of childhood fitness (PACER and fatness (BMI z score could be used to identify childhood risk for IR and evaluate interventions.

  9. Reliable Prediction of Insulin Resistance by a School-Based Fitness Test in Middle-School Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allen DavidB

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. (1 Determine the predictive value of a school-based test of cardiovascular fitness (CVF for insulin resistance (IR; (2 compare a "school-based" prediction of IR to a "laboratory-based" prediction, using various measures of fitness and body composition. Methods. Middle school children ( performed the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER, a school-based CVF test, and underwent evaluation of maximal oxygen consumption treadmill testing ( max, body composition (percent body fat and BMI z score, and IR (derived homeostasis model assessment index []. Results. PACER showed a strong correlation with max/kg ( = 0.83, and with ( = , . Multivariate regression analysis revealed that a school-based model (using PACER and BMI z score predicted IR similar to a laboratory-based model (using max/kg of lean body mass and percent body fat. Conclusions. The PACER is a valid school-based test of CVF, is predictive of IR, and has a similar relationship to IR when compared to complex laboratory-based testing. Simple school-based measures of childhood fitness (PACER and fatness (BMI z score could be used to identify childhood risk for IR and evaluate interventions.

  10. Humidity build-up in electronic enclosures exposed to different geographical locations by RC modelling and reliability prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conseil-Gudla, H.; Staliulionis, Z.; Mohanty, S.

    2018-01-01

    according to this steady state (25 °C and 60% RH) have been calculated for the different climates, and the protection offered by the enclosures has been estimated under different casing materials and resistor-capacitor (RC) simulation. This method offers a way to predict the average value of failure rate...

  11. Preliminary data concerning the reliability and psychometric properties of the Greek translation of the 20-item Subjective Well-Being Under Neuroleptic Treatment Scale (SWN-20

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arapidis Konstantinos

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 20-item Subjective Well-Being Under Neuroleptic Treatment Scale (SWN-20 is a self-report scale developed in order to assess the well-being of patients receiving antipsychotic medication independent of the improvement in their psychotic symptoms. The current study reports on the reliability and the psychometric properties of the Greek translation of the SWN-20. Methods A total of 100 inpatients or outpatients with schizophrenia (79 males and 21 females, aged 42.6 ± 11.35 years old from 3 different facilities were assessed with the Positive and Negative Symptoms Scale (PANSS, the Calgary Depression Scale and the Simpson-Angus Scale, and completed the SWN-20. The statistical analysis included the calculation of Pearson product moment correlation coefficient, the Cronbach α and factor analysis with Varimax normalised rotation. Results The SWN-20 had an α value equal to 0.79 and all the items were equal. The factor analysis revealed the presence of seven factors explaining 66% of total variance. The correlation matrix revealed a moderate relationship of the SWN-20 and its factors with the PANSS-Negative (PANSS-N, PANSS-General Psychopathology (PANSS-G, the Simpson-Angus and the Calgary scales, and no relationship to age, education and income class. Discussion The Greek translation of the SWN-20 is reliable, with psychometric properties close to the original scale.

  12. Preliminary Validation and Reliability Testing of the Montreal Instrument for Cat Arthritis Testing, for Use by Veterinarians, in a Colony of Laboratory Cats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary P. Klinck

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Subtle signs and conflicting physical and radiographic findings make feline osteoarthritis (OA challenging to diagnose. A physical examination-based assessment was developed, consisting of eight items: Interaction, Exploration, Posture, Gait, Body Condition, Coat and Claws, (joint Palpation–Findings, and Palpation–Cat Reaction. Content (experts and face (veterinary students validity were excellent. Construct validity, internal consistency, and intra- and inter-rater reliability were assessed via a pilot and main study, using laboratory-housed cats with and without OA. Gait distinguished OA status in the pilot ( p = 0.05 study. In the main study, no scale item achieved statistically significant OA detection. Forelimb peak vertical ground reaction force (PVF correlated inversely with Gait (Rho s = −0.38 ( p = 0.03 to −0.41 ( p = 0.02. Body Posture correlated with Gait, and inversely with forelimb PVF at two of three time points (Rho s = −0.38 ( p = 0.03 to −0.43 ( p = 0.01. Palpation (Findings, Cat Reaction did not distinguish OA from non-OA cats. Palpation—Cat Reaction (Forelimbs correlated inversely with forelimb PVF at two time points (Rho s = −0.41 ( p = 0.02 to −0.41 ( p = 0.01, but scores were highly variable, and poorly reliable. Gait and Posture require improved sensitivity, and Palpation should be interpreted cautiously, in diagnosing feline OA.

  13. Reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Dissociative Disorders (SCID-D): a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundakçi, Turgut; Sar, Vedat; Kiziltan, Emre; Yargiç, Ilhan L; Tutkun, Hamdi

    2014-01-01

    A total of 34 consecutive patients with dissociative identity disorder or dissociative disorder not otherwise specified were evaluated using the Turkish version of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Dissociative Disorders (SCID-D). They were compared with a matched control group composed of 34 patients who had a nondissociative psychiatric disorder. Interrater reliability was evaluated by 3 clinicians who assessed videotaped interviews conducted with 5 dissociative and 5 nondissociative patients. All subjects who were previously diagnosed by clinicians as having a dissociative disorder were identified as positive, and all subjects who were previously diagnosed as not having a dissociative disorder were identified as negative. The scores of the main symptom clusters and the total score of the SCID-D differentiated dissociative patients from the nondissociative group. There were strong correlations between the SCID-D and the Dissociative Experiences Scale total and subscale scores. These results are promising for the validity and reliability of the Turkish version of the SCID-D. However, as the present study was conducted on a predominantly female sample with very severe dissociation, these findings should not be generalized to male patients, to dissociative disorders other than dissociative identity disorder, or to broader clinical or nonclinical populations.

  14. Prediction of the shape of inline wave force and free surface elevation using First Order Reliability Method (FORM)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghadirian, Amin; Bredmose, Henrik; Schløer, Signe

    2017-01-01

    theory, that is, the most likely time history of inline force around a force peak of given value. The results of FORM and NewForce are linearly identical and show only minor deviations at second order. The FORM results are then compared to wave averaged measurements of the same criteria for crest height......In design of substructures for offshore wind turbines, the extreme wave loads which are of interest in Ultimate Limit States are often estimated by choosing extreme events from linear random sea states and replacing them by either stream function wave theory or the NewWave theory of a certain...... design wave height. As these wave theories super from limitations such as symmetry around the crest, other methods to estimate the wave loads are needed. In the present paper, the First Order Reliability Method, FORM, is used systematically to estimate the most likely extreme wave shapes. Two parameters...

  15. Support Vector Machine Analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of Interoception Does Not Reliably Predict Individual Outcomes of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Panic Disorder with Agoraphobia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedikt Sundermann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe approach to apply multivariate pattern analyses based on neuro imaging data for outcome prediction holds out the prospect to improve therapeutic decisions in mental disorders. Patients suffering from panic disorder with agoraphobia (PD/AG often exhibit an increased perception of bodily sensations. The purpose of this investigation was to assess whether multivariate classification applied to a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI interoception paradigm can predict individual responses to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT in PD/AG.MethodsThis analysis is based on pretreatment fMRI data during an interoceptive challenge from a multicenter trial of the German PANIC-NET. Patients with DSM-IV PD/AG were dichotomized as responders (n = 30 or non-responders (n = 29 based on the primary outcome (Hamilton Anxiety Scale Reduction ≥50% after 6 weeks of CBT (2 h/week. fMRI parametric maps were used as features for response classification with linear support vector machines (SVM with or without automated feature selection. Predictive accuracies were assessed using cross validation and permutation testing. The influence of methodological parameters and the predictive ability for specific interoception-related symptom reduction were further evaluated.ResultsSVM did not reach sufficient overall predictive accuracies (38.0–54.2% for anxiety reduction in the primary outcome. In the exploratory analyses, better accuracies (66.7% were achieved for predicting interoception-specific symptom relief as an alternative outcome domain. Subtle information regarding this alternative response criterion but not the primary outcome was revealed by post hoc univariate comparisons.ConclusionIn contrast to reports on other neurofunctional probes, SVM based on an interoception paradigm was not able to reliably predict individual response to CBT. Results speak against the clinical applicability of this technique.

  16. CYP2D6 polymorphisms may predict occurrence of adverse effects to tamoxifen: a preliminary retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wickramage I

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Ishani Wickramage,1 Kamani Hemamala Tennekoon,1 Merenchi Arachchige Yasantha Ariyaratne,2 Asanka Sudeshini Hewage,1 Tharmini Sundralingam,1 1Institute of Biochemistry, Molecular Biology and Biotechnology (IBMBB, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka; 2National Cancer Institute, Maharagama, Sri Lanka Introduction and aims: Tamoxifen is an adjuvant drug effective in treating hormone ­receptor – positive breast cancer. However, 30%–50% of patients relapse and many develop adverse effects, such as hot flashes and fatty liver. Allelic variations altering the activity of cytochrome P450-2D6 enzyme affect response to tamoxifen by modulating metabolism of tamoxifen into its pharmacologically active metabolite endoxifen. Although association between CYP2D6 polymorphisms and recurrence of breast cancer in patients on tamoxifen had been reported, little evidence exists on association between these polymorphisms and adverse effects to tamoxifen. This study explored the association between CYP2D6 polymorphisms and tamoxifen effects, hitherto not studied in Sri Lanka. Methods: A retrospective preliminary study was carried out on 24 breast cancer patients on tamoxifen for minimally 3 months attending National Cancer Institute, Maharagama, Sri Lanka. They were not on CYP2D6-inhibiting drugs, chemotherapy or other endocrine therapy, and had no conditions that could occur as adverse effects to tamoxifen before starting the therapy. Their blood samples were collected, DNA was extracted and genotyped using SNaPshot Multiplex sequencing based single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP assay. Results: SNP/allele frequencies detected: 1846G>A (confirmatory of *4 null allele=8.3%; 2549delA (confirmatory of *3 null allele=50%; 100C>T (suggestive of *10 reduced functional allele, in addition to other alleles=0%; combination of 2988G>A, -1584C and 2850C>T (strongly suggestive of *41 or other reduced functional allele=4.8%. Occurrence of heterozygous 2988G>A SNP with

  17. Preliminary Validation and Reliability Testing of the Montreal Instrument for Cat Arthritis Testing, for Use by Veterinarians, in a Colony of Laboratory Cats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinck, Mary P.; Rialland, Pascale; Guillot, Martin; Moreau, Maxim; Frank, Diane; Troncy, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Simple Summary Feline osteoarthritis (OA) is challenging to diagnose. A pain scale was developed for use by veterinarians, in association with their physical examination, and tested for reliability and validity. The scale items were: Interaction with the examiner, Exploration of the room, Body Posture, Gait, Body Condition, condition of Coat and Claws, and abnormal Findings or Cat Reaction upon joint Palpation. Expert review supported the scale content. Two studies using laboratory-housed cats found the most promising results for Gait and Body Posture, in terms of distinguishing between OA and non-OA cats, repeatability of results, and correlations with objectively measured kinetics (weight-bearing). Abstract Subtle signs and conflicting physical and radiographic findings make feline osteoarthritis (OA) challenging to diagnose. A physical examination-based assessment was developed, consisting of eight items: Interaction, Exploration, Posture, Gait, Body Condition, Coat and Claws, (joint) Palpation–Findings, and Palpation–Cat Reaction. Content (experts) and face (veterinary students) validity were excellent. Construct validity, internal consistency, and intra- and inter-rater reliability were assessed via a pilot and main study, using laboratory-housed cats with and without OA. Gait distinguished OA status in the pilot (p = 0.05) study. In the main study, no scale item achieved statistically significant OA detection. Forelimb peak vertical ground reaction force (PVF) correlated inversely with Gait (Rhos = −0.38 (p = 0.03) to −0.41 (p = 0.02)). Body Posture correlated with Gait, and inversely with forelimb PVF at two of three time points (Rhos = −0.38 (p = 0.03) to −0.43 (p = 0.01)). Palpation (Findings, Cat Reaction) did not distinguish OA from non-OA cats. Palpation—Cat Reaction (Forelimbs) correlated inversely with forelimb PVF at two time points (Rhos = −0.41 (p = 0.02) to −0.41 (p = 0.01)), but scores were highly variable, and poorly reliable

  18. Development of Reliability Based Life Prediction Methods for Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin

    2001-01-01

    Literature survey related to the EBC/TBC (environmental barrier coating/thermal barrier coating) fife models, failure mechanisms in EBC/TBC and the initial work plan for the proposed EBC/TBC life prediction methods development was developed as well as the finite element model for the thermal/stress analysis of the GRC-developed EBC system was prepared. Technical report for these activities is given in the subsequent sections.

  19. Improving the reliability of female fertility breeding values using type and milk yield traits that predict energy status in Australian Holstein cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Recio, O; Haile-Mariam, M; Pryce, J E

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this study were (1) to propose changing the selection criteria trait for evaluating fertility in Australia from calving interval to conception rate at d 42 after the beginning of the mating season and (2) to use type traits as early fertility predictors, to increase the reliability of estimated breeding values for fertility. The breeding goal in Australia is conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season. Currently, the Australian model to predict fertility breeding values (expressed as a linear transformation of calving interval) is a multitrait model that includes calving interval (CVI), lactation length (LL), calving to first service (CFS), first nonreturn rate (FNRR), and conception rate. However, CVI has a lower genetic correlation with the breeding goal (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) than conception rate. Milk yield, type, and fertility data from 164,318 cow sired by 4,766 bulls were used. Principal component analysis and genetic correlation estimates between type and fertility traits were used to select type traits that could subsequently be used in a multitrait analysis. Angularity, foot angle, and pin set were chosen as type traits to include in an index with the traits that are included in the multitrait fertility model: CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and conception rate at d 42 (CR42). An index with these 8 traits is expected to achieve an average bull first proof reliability of 0.60 on the breeding objective (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) compared with reliabilities of 0.39 and 0.45 for CR42 only or the current 5-trait Australian model. Subsequently, we used the first eigenvector of a principal component analysis with udder texture, bone quality, angularity, and body condition score to calculate an energy status indicator trait. The inclusion of the energy status indicator trait composite in a multitrait index with CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and CR42 achieved a 12-point increase in

  20. Study on the methodology for predicting and preventing errors to improve reliability of maintenance task in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanafusa, Hidemitsu; Iwaki, Toshio; Embrey, D.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop and effective methodology for predicting and preventing errors in nuclear power plant maintenance tasks. A method was established by which chief maintenance personnel can predict and reduce errors when reviewing the maintenance procedures and while referring to maintenance supporting systems and methods in other industries including aviation and chemical plant industries. The method involves the following seven steps: 1. Identification of maintenance tasks. 2. Specification of important tasks affecting safety. 3. Assessment of human errors occurring during important tasks. 4. Identification of Performance Degrading Factors. 5. Dividing important tasks into sub-tasks. 6. Extraction of errors using Predictive Human Error Analysis (PHEA). 7. Development of strategies for reducing errors and for recovering from errors. By way of a trial, this method was applied to the pump maintenance procedure in nuclear power plants. This method is believed to be capable of identifying the expected errors in important tasks and supporting the development of error reduction measures. By applying this method, the number of accidents resulting form human errors during maintenance can be reduced. Moreover, the maintenance support base using computers was developed. (author)

  1. PTCH1 is a reliable marker for predicting imatinib response in chronic myeloid leukemia patients in chronic phase.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M Alonso-Dominguez

    Full Text Available Patched homolog 1 gene (PTCH1 expression and the ratio of PTCH1 to Smoothened (SMO expression have been proposed as prognostic markers of the response of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML patients to imatinib. We compared these measurements in a realistic cohort of 101 patients with CML in chronic phase (CP using a simplified qPCR method, and confirmed the prognostic power of each in a competing risk analysis. Gene expression levels were measured in peripheral blood samples at diagnosis. The PTCH1/SMO ratio did not improve PTCH1 prognostic power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.71 vs. 0.72. In order to reduce the number of genes to be analyzed, PTCH1 was the selected measurement. High and low PTCH1 expression groups had significantly different cumulative incidences of imatinib failure (IF, which was defined as discontinuation of imatinib due to lack of efficacy (5% vs. 25% at 4 years, P = 0.013, probabilities of achieving a major molecular response (81% vs. 53% at first year, P = 0.02, and proportions of early molecular failure (14% vs. 43%, P = 0.015. Every progression to an advanced phase (n = 3 and CML-related death (n = 2 occurred in the low PTCH1 group (P<0.001 for both comparisons. PTCH1 was an independent prognostic factor for the prediction of IF. We also validated previously published thresholds for PTCH1 expression. Therefore, we confirmed that PTCH1 expression can predict the imatinib response in CML patients in CP by applying a more rigorous statistical analysis. Thus, PTCH1 expression is a promising molecular marker for predicting the imatinib response in CML patients in CP.

  2. Prediction of failure enthalpy and reliability of irradiated fuel rod under reactivity-initiated accidents by means of statistical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Cheol; Choi, Byeong Kwon; Jeong, Yong Hwan; Jung, Youn Ho

    2001-01-01

    During the last decade, the failure behavior of high-burnup fuel rods under RIA has been an extensive concern since observations of fuel rod failures at low enthalpy. Of great importance is placed on failure prediction of fuel rod in the point of licensing criteria and safety in extending burnup achievement. To address the issue, a statistics-based methodology is introduced to predict failure probability of irradiated fuel rods. Based on RIA simulation results in literature, a failure enthalpy correlation for irradiated fuel rod is constructed as a function of oxide thickness, fuel burnup, and pulse width. From the failure enthalpy correlation, a single damage parameter, equivalent enthalpy, is defined to reflect the effects of the three primary factors as well as peak fuel enthalpy. Moreover, the failure distribution function with equivalent enthalpy is derived, applying a two-parameter Weibull statistical model. Using these equations, the sensitivity analysis is carried out to estimate the effects of burnup, corrosion, peak fuel enthalpy, pulse width and cladding materials used

  3. Radiomic features from the peritumoral brain parenchyma on treatment-naive multi-parametric MR imaging predict long versus short-term survival in glioblastoma multiforme: Preliminary findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasanna, Prateek; Patel, Jay; Madabhushi, Anant; Tiwari, Pallavi [Case Western Reserve University, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Cleveland, OH (United States); Partovi, Sasan [University Hospitals Case Medical Center, Case Western Reserve School of Medicine, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2017-10-15

    Despite 90 % of glioblastoma (GBM) recurrences occurring in the peritumoral brain zone (PBZ), its contribution in patient survival is poorly understood. The current study leverages computerized texture (i.e. radiomic) analysis to evaluate the efficacy of PBZ features from pre-operative MRI in predicting long- (>18 months) versus short-term (<7 months) survival in GBM. Sixty-five patient examinations (29 short-term, 36 long-term) with gadolinium-contrast T{sub 1w}, FLAIR and T{sub 2w} sequences from the Cancer Imaging Archive were employed. An expert manually segmented each study as: enhancing lesion, PBZ and tumour necrosis. 402 radiomic features (capturing co-occurrence, grey-level dependence and directional gradients) were obtained for each region. Evaluation was performed using threefold cross-validation, such that a subset of studies was used to select the most predictive features, and the remaining subset was used to evaluate their efficacy in predicting survival. A subset of ten radiomic 'peritumoral' MRI features, suggestive of intensity heterogeneity and textural patterns, was found to be predictive of survival (p = 1.47 x 10{sup -5}) as compared to features from enhancing tumour, necrotic regions and known clinical factors. Our preliminary analysis suggests that radiomic features from the PBZ on routine pre-operative MRI may be predictive of long- versus short-term survival in GBM. (orig.)

  4. A text-based data mining and toxicity prediction modeling system for a clinical decision support in radiation oncology: A preliminary study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwang Hyeon; Lee, Suk; Shim, Jang Bo; Chang, Kyung Hwan; Yang, Dae Sik; Yoon, Won Sup; Park, Young Je; Kim, Chul Yong; Cao, Yuan Jie

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study is an integrated research for text-based data mining and toxicity prediction modeling system for clinical decision support system based on big data in radiation oncology as a preliminary research. The structured and unstructured data were prepared by treatment plans and the unstructured data were extracted by dose-volume data image pattern recognition of prostate cancer for research articles crawling through the internet. We modeled an artificial neural network to build a predictor model system for toxicity prediction of organs at risk. We used a text-based data mining approach to build the artificial neural network model for bladder and rectum complication predictions. The pattern recognition method was used to mine the unstructured toxicity data for dose-volume at the detection accuracy of 97.9%. The confusion matrix and training model of the neural network were achieved with 50 modeled plans (n = 50) for validation. The toxicity level was analyzed and the risk factors for 25% bladder, 50% bladder, 20% rectum, and 50% rectum were calculated by the artificial neural network algorithm. As a result, 32 plans could cause complication but 18 plans were designed as non-complication among 50 modeled plans. We integrated data mining and a toxicity modeling method for toxicity prediction using prostate cancer cases. It is shown that a preprocessing analysis using text-based data mining and prediction modeling can be expanded to personalized patient treatment decision support based on big data.

  5. The Electricity Feed Law levy - how reliably can it be predicted?; Wie verlaesslich laesst sich die EEG-Umlage prognostizieren?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bause, Rainer; Schulz, Woldemar [Amprion GmbH, Dortmund (Germany); Buehler, Holger [EnBW TNG, Stuttgart (Germany); Hodurek, Claus [50Hertz Transmission GmbH, Berlin (Germany); Kiessling, Axel [TenneT TSO GmbH, Bayreuth (Germany)

    2011-10-15

    By paying their monthly electricity bill German consumers are promoting the transition to tomorrow's resource-efficient electricity supply system, in which the largest part of electricity used is to come from renewable energy resources. Every year Germany's transmission system operators publish what is referred to as the ''EEG-Umlage'' (report on the Electricity Feed Law levy, or EEG levy), which shows how much every German household will be paying for the promotion of renewable energies in the coming year. The determination of the EEG levy involves uncertainties and imponderabilities which have to be taken into account in its calculation. The crucial task is to find a suitable systematic scheme for predicting the renewable energy yield.

  6. The mechanical behavior and reliability prediction of the HTR graphite component at various temperature and neutron dose ranges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiang; Yu, Suyuan; Wang, Haitao; Li, Chenfeng

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The mechanical behavior of graphite component in HTRs under high temperature and neutron irradiation conditions is simulated. • The computational process of mechanical analysis is introduced. • Deformation, stresses and failure probability of the graphite component are obtained and discussed. • Various temperature and neutron dose ranges are selected in order to investigate the effect of in-core conditions on the results. - Abstract: In a pebble-bed high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR), nuclear graphite serves as the main structural material of the side reflectors. The reactor core is made up of a large number of graphite bricks. In the normal operation case of the reactor, the maximum temperature of the helium coolant commonly reaches about 750 °C. After around 30 years’ full power operation, the peak value of in-core fast neutron cumulative dose reaches to 1 × 10 22 n cm −2 (EDN). Such high temperature and neutron irradiation strongly impact the behavior of graphite component, causing obvious deformation. The temperature and neutron dose are unevenly distributed inside a graphite brick, resulting in stress concentrations. The deformation and stress concentration can both greatly affect safety and reliability of the graphite component. In addition, most of the graphite properties (such as Young's modulus and coefficient of thermal expansion) change remarkably under high temperature and neutron irradiations. The irradiation-induced creep also plays a very important role during the whole process, and provides a significant impact on the stress accumulation. In order to simulate the behavior of graphite component under various in-core conditions, all of the above factors must be considered carefully. In this paper, the deformation, stress distribution and failure probability of a side graphite component are studied at various temperature points and neutron dose levels. 400 °C, 500 °C, 600 °C and 750 °C are selected as the

  7. Deep learning-based features of breast MRI for prediction of occult invasive disease following a diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ: preliminary data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhe; Harowicz, Michael; Zhang, Jun; Saha, Ashirbani; Grimm, Lars J.; Hwang, Shelley; Mazurowski, Maciej A.

    2018-02-01

    Approximately 25% of patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) diagnosed from core needle biopsy are subsequently upstaged to invasive cancer at surgical excision. Identifying patients with occult invasive disease is important as it changes treatment and precludes enrollment in active surveillance for DCIS. In this study, we investigated upstaging of DCIS to invasive disease using deep features. While deep neural networks require large amounts of training data, the available data to predict DCIS upstaging is sparse and thus directly training a neural network is unlikely to be successful. In this work, a pre-trained neural network is used as a feature extractor and a support vector machine (SVM) is trained on the extracted features. We used the dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRIs of patients at our institution from January 1, 2000, through March 23, 2014 who underwent MRI following a diagnosis of DCIS. Among the 131 DCIS patients, there were 35 patients who were upstaged to invasive cancer. Area under the ROC curve within the 10-fold cross-validation scheme was used for validation of our predictive model. The use of deep features was able to achieve an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.56-0.78) to predict occult invasive disease. This preliminary work demonstrates the promise of deep features to predict surgical upstaging following a diagnosis of DCIS.

  8. Single-leg lateral, horizontal, and vertical jump assessment: reliability, interrelationships, and ability to predict sprint and change-of-direction performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meylan, Cesar; McMaster, Travis; Cronin, John; Mohammad, Nur Ikhwan; Rogers, Cailyn; Deklerk, Melissa

    2009-07-01

    The purposes of this study were to determine the reliability of unilateral vertical, horizontal, and lateral countermovement jump assessments, the interrelationship between these tests, and their usefulness as predictors of sprint (10 m) and change-of-direction (COD) performance for 80 men and women physical education students. Jump performance was assessed on a contact mat and sprint, and COD performances were assessed using timing lights. With regard to the reliability statistics, the largest coefficient of variation (CV) was observed for the vertical jump (CV = 6.7-7.2%) of both genders, whereas the sprint and COD assessments had smallest variability (CV = 0.8 to 2.8%). All intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were greater than 0.85, except for the men's COD assessment with the alternate leg. The shared variance between the single-leg vertical, horizontal, and lateral jumps for men and women was less than 50%, indicating that the jumps are relatively independent of one another and represent different leg strength/power qualities. The ability of the jumps to predict sprint and COD performance was limited (R2 < 43%). It would seem that the ability to change direction with 1 leg is relatively independent of a COD with the other leg, especially in the women (R < 30%) of this study. However, if 1 jump assessment were selected to predict sprint and COD performance in a test battery, the single-leg horizontal countermovement jump would seem the logical choice, given the results of this study. Many of the findings in this study have interesting diagnostic and training implications for the strength and conditioning coach.

  9. Predicting interatrial septum rotation: is the position of the heart or the direction of the coronary sinus reliable?: Implications for interventional electrophysiologists from CT studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Huan; Wang, Yanjing; Zhang, Zhenming; Liu, Lin; Yang, Ping

    2015-04-01

    Determining the location of the interatrial septum (IAS) is crucial for cardiac electrophysiology procedures. Empirical methods of predicting IAS orientation depend on anatomical landmarks, including determining it from the direction of the coronary sinus (CS) and the position of the heart (e.g., vertical or transverse). However, the reliability of these methods for predicting IAS rotation warrants further study. The purpose of this study was to assess the clinical utility of the relationship between IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position. Data from 115 patients undergoing coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography with no evidence of cardiac structural disease were collected and analyzed. Angulations describing IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position were measured. The relationships between IAS orientation and each of the other two parameters were subsequently analyzed. The mean angulations for IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position were 36.8 ± 7.3° (range 19.1-53.6), 37.7 ± 6.6° (range 21.3-50.1), and 37.1 ± 8.3° (range 19.2-61.0), respectively. We found a significant correlation between IAS orientation and CS direction (r = 0.928; P IAS orientation = 2.01 + 1.03 × CS direction (r(2) = 0.86). No correlation was observed between IAS orientation and heart position (P = 0.86). In patients without structural heart disease, CS direction may be a reliable predictor of IAS orientation, and may serve as a helpful reference for clinicians during invasive electrophysiological procedures. Further study is warranted to clarify the relationship between IAS orientation and heart position. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. LED system reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific

  11. Cell emulation and preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-01

    This report details preliminary results of the testing plan implemented by the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute to evaluate Electric Vehicle (EV) battery durability and reliability under electric utility grid operations. Commercial EV battery cells ar...

  12. Optimizing the fMRI data-processing pipeline using prediction and reproducibility performance metrics: I. A preliminary group analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strother, Stephen C.; Conte, Stephen La; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2004-01-01

    We argue that published results demonstrate that new insights into human brain function may be obscured by poor and/or limited choices in the data-processing pipeline, and review the work on performance metrics for optimizing pipelines: prediction, reproducibility, and related empirical Receiver......, temporal detrending, and between-subject alignment) in a group analysis of BOLD-fMRI scans from 16 subjects performing a block-design, parametric-static-force task. Large-scale brain networks were detected using a multivariate linear discriminant analysis (canonical variates analysis, CVA) that was tuned...... of baseline scans have constant, equal means, and this assumption was assessed with prediction metrics. Higher-order polynomial warps compared to affine alignment had only a minor impact on the performance metrics. We found that both prediction and reproducibility metrics were required for optimizing...

  13. Predicting Rib Fracture Risk With Whole-Body Finite Element Models: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Probabilistic Analytical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forman, Jason L.; Kent, Richard W.; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5–7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992–2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

  14. Prediction of postoperative pulmonary function. Preliminary comparison of single-breath dual-energy xenon CT with three conventional methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanagita, Hisami; Honda, Norinari; Nakayama, Mitsuo

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the use of xenon ventilation maps (Xe-images) for predicting postoperative pulmonary function. After study approval by the institutional review board, written informed consent was obtained from 30 patients with lung tumors who underwent pre- and postoperative spirometry, pulmonary perfusion single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and dual-energy CT (80 kV and 140 kV/Sn) after single-breath inspiration of 35% xenon. Xe-images were calculated by three-material decomposition. Sum of pixel values of the part to be resected (A) and of the whole lung (B) on Xe-images or lung perfusion SPECT, and volumes or the number of segments of the part to be resected (A) and of the whole lung (B) on Xe-images were enumerated, respectively. We multiplied (1-A/B) by each preoperative value from spirometry for prediction. Predictions by each of the four methods were compared with postoperative values. Predicted values for vital capacity (VC), forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) by the four methods regressed significantly with measured values (R 2 =0.56-0.77, p 1 with accuracy comparable to that of CT volumetry. (author)

  15. A laboratory-scale comparison of rate of spread model predictions using chaparral fuel beds – preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.R. Weise; E. Koo; X. Zhou; S. Mahalingam

    2011-01-01

    Observed fire spread rates from 240 laboratory fires in horizontally-oriented single-species live fuel beds were compared to predictions from various implementations and modifications of the Rothermel rate of spread model and a physical fire spread model developed by Pagni and Koo. Packing ratio of the laboratory fuel beds was generally greater than that observed in...

  16. Automated reliability assessment for spectroscopic redshift measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamal, S.; Le Brun, V.; Le Fèvre, O.; Vibert, D.; Schmitt, A.; Surace, C.; Copin, Y.; Garilli, B.; Moresco, M.; Pozzetti, L.

    2018-03-01

    Context. Future large-scale surveys, such as the ESA Euclid mission, will produce a large set of galaxy redshifts (≥106) that will require fully automated data-processing pipelines to analyze the data, extract crucial information and ensure that all requirements are met. A fundamental element in these pipelines is to associate to each galaxy redshift measurement a quality, or reliability, estimate. Aim. In this work, we introduce a new approach to automate the spectroscopic redshift reliability assessment based on machine learning (ML) and characteristics of the redshift probability density function. Methods: We propose to rephrase the spectroscopic redshift estimation into a Bayesian framework, in order to incorporate all sources of information and uncertainties related to the redshift estimation process and produce a redshift posterior probability density function (PDF). To automate the assessment of a reliability flag, we exploit key features in the redshift posterior PDF and machine learning algorithms. Results: As a working example, public data from the VIMOS VLT Deep Survey is exploited to present and test this new methodology. We first tried to reproduce the existing reliability flags using supervised classification in order to describe different types of redshift PDFs, but due to the subjective definition of these flags (classification accuracy 58%), we soon opted for a new homogeneous partitioning of the data into distinct clusters via unsupervised classification. After assessing the accuracy of the new clusters via resubstitution and test predictions (classification accuracy 98%), we projected unlabeled data from preliminary mock simulations for the Euclid space mission into this mapping to predict their redshift reliability labels. Conclusions: Through the development of a methodology in which a system can build its own experience to assess the quality of a parameter, we are able to set a preliminary basis of an automated reliability assessment for

  17. Value of CT to predict surgically important bowel and/or mesenteric injury in blunt trauma: performance of a preliminary scoring system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faget, Claire; Taourel, Patrice; Ruyer, Alban; Alili, Chakib; Millet, Ingrid [CHU Lapeyronie, Department of Medical Imaging, Montpellier (France); Charbit, Jonathan [CHU Lapeyronie, Department of Intensive Care and Anesthesiology, Montpellier (France); Molinari, Nicolas [UMR 729 MISTEA, CHU Montpellier, Department of Medical Information and Statistics, Montpellier (France)

    2015-12-15

    To evaluate the performance of a computed tomography (CT) diagnostic score to predict surgical treatment for blunt bowel and/or mesentery injury (BBMI) in consecutive abdominal trauma. This was a retrospective observational study of 805 consecutive abdominal traumas with 556 patients included and screened by an abdominal radiologist blinded to the patient outcome, to evaluate numerous CT findings and calculate their diagnostic performances. These CT findings were compared using univariate and multivariate analysis between patients who had a laparotomy-confirmed BBMI requiring surgical repair, and those without BBMI requiring surgery. A CT score was obtained with an internal bootstrap validation. Fifty-six patients (10.1 %) had BBMI requiring surgery. Nine CT signs were independently associated with BBMI requiring surgery and were used to develop a CT diagnostic score. The AUC of our model was 0.98 (95 % CI 0.96-100), with a ≥5 cut-off. Its diagnostic performance was determined by internal validation: sensitivity 91.1-100 %, specificity 85.7-97.6 %, positive predictive value 41.4-82.3 % and negative predictive value 98.9-100 %. Bowel wall discontinuity and mesenteric pneumoperitoneum had the strongest association with BBMI requiring surgery (OR = 128.9 and 140.5, respectively). We developed a reliable CT scoring system which is easy to implement and highly predictive of BBMI requiring surgery. (orig.)

  18. Preliminary evaluation of a predictive blood assay to identify patients at high risk of chemotherapy-induced nausea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutner, Thomas; Kunkel, Emily; Wang, Yue; George, Kyle; Zeger, Erik L; Ali, Zonera A; Prendergast, George C; Gilman, Paul B; Wallon, U Margaretha

    2017-02-01

    The aim of this study was to test a new blood-based assay for its ability to predict delayed chemotherapy-induced nausea. Blood drawn from consented patients prior to receiving their first platinum-based therapy was tested for glutathione recycling capacity and normalized to total red cell numbers. This number was used to predict nausea and then compared to patient reported outcomes using the Rotterdam Symptom Check List and medical records. We show that the pathways involved in the glutathione recycling are stable for at least 48 h and that the test was able to correctly classify the risk of nausea for 89.1 % of the patients. The overall incidence of nausea was 21.9 % while women had an incidence of 29.6 %. This might be the first objective test to predict delayed nausea for cancer patients receiving highly emetogenic chemotherapy. We believe that this assay could better guide clinicians in their efforts to provide optimal patient-oriented care.

  19. A random forest based risk model for reliable and accurate prediction of receipt of transfusion in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hitinder S Gurm

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transfusion is a common complication of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI and is associated with adverse short and long term outcomes. There is no risk model for identifying patients most likely to receive transfusion after PCI. The objective of our study was to develop and validate a tool for predicting receipt of blood transfusion in patients undergoing contemporary PCI. METHODS: Random forest models were developed utilizing 45 pre-procedural clinical and laboratory variables to estimate the receipt of transfusion in patients undergoing PCI. The most influential variables were selected for inclusion in an abbreviated model. Model performance estimating transfusion was evaluated in an independent validation dataset using area under the ROC curve (AUC, with net reclassification improvement (NRI used to compare full and reduced model prediction after grouping in low, intermediate, and high risk categories. The impact of procedural anticoagulation on observed versus predicted transfusion rates were assessed for the different risk categories. RESULTS: Our study cohort was comprised of 103,294 PCI procedures performed at 46 hospitals between July 2009 through December 2012 in Michigan of which 72,328 (70% were randomly selected for training the models, and 30,966 (30% for validation. The models demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination (AUC: full model  = 0.888 (95% CI 0.877-0.899, reduced model AUC = 0.880 (95% CI, 0.868-0.892, p for difference 0.003, NRI = 2.77%, p = 0.007. Procedural anticoagulation and radial access significantly influenced transfusion rates in the intermediate and high risk patients but no clinically relevant impact was noted in low risk patients, who made up 70% of the total cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of transfusion among patients undergoing PCI can be reliably calculated using a novel easy to use computational tool (https://bmc2.org/calculators/transfusion. This risk prediction

  20. Reliability analysis for Atucha II reactor protection system signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roca, Jose Luis

    1996-01-01

    Atucha II is a 745 MW Argentine Power Nuclear Reactor constructed by ENACE SA, Nuclear Argentine Company for Electrical Power Generation and SIEMENS AG KWU, Erlangen, Germany. A preliminary modular logic analysis of RPS (Reactor Protection System) signals was performed by means of the well known Swedish professional risk and reliability software named Risk-Spectrum taking as a basis a reference signal coded as JR17ER003 which command the two moderator loops valves. From the reliability and behavior knowledge for this reference signal follows an estimation of the reliability for the other 97 RPS signals. Because the preliminary character of this analysis Main Important Measures are not performed at this stage. Reliability is by the statistic value named unavailability predicted. The scope of this analysis is restricted from the measurement elements to the RPS buffer outputs. In the present context only one redundancy is analyzed so in the Instrumentation and Control area there no CCF (Common Cause Failures) present for signals. Finally those unavailability values could be introduced in the failure domain for the posterior complete Atucha II reliability analysis which includes all mechanical and electromechanical features. Also an estimation of the spurious frequency of RPS signals defined as faulty by no trip is performed

  1. Reliability analysis for Atucha II reactor protection system signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roca, Jose L.

    2000-01-01

    Atucha II is a 745 MW Argentine power nuclear reactor constructed by Nuclear Argentine Company for Electric Power Generation S.A. (ENACE S.A.) and SIEMENS AG KWU, Erlangen, Germany. A preliminary modular logic analysis of RPS (Reactor Protection System) signals was performed by means of the well known Swedish professional risk and reliability software named Risk-Spectrum taking as a basis a reference signal coded as JR17ER003 which command the two moderator loops valves. From the reliability and behavior knowledge for this reference signal follows an estimation of the reliability for the other 97 RPS signals. Because the preliminary character of this analysis Main Important Measures are not performed at this stage. Reliability is by the statistic value named unavailability predicted. The scope of this analysis is restricted from the measurement elements to the RPS buffer outputs. In the present context only one redundancy is analyzed so in the Instrumentation and Control area there no CCF (Common Cause Failures) present for signals. Finally those unavailability values could be introduced in the failure domain for the posterior complete Atucha II reliability analysis which includes all mechanical and electromechanical features. Also an estimation of the spurious frequency of RPS signals defined as faulty by no trip is performed. (author)

  2. Brain responses to biological motion predict treatment outcome in young adults with autism receiving Virtual Reality Social Cognition Training: Preliminary findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y J Daniel; Allen, Tandra; Abdullahi, Sebiha M; Pelphrey, Kevin A; Volkmar, Fred R; Chapman, Sandra B

    2017-06-01

    Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is characterized by remarkable heterogeneity in social, communication, and behavioral deficits, creating a major barrier in identifying effective treatments for a given individual with ASD. To facilitate precision medicine in ASD, we utilized a well-validated biological motion neuroimaging task to identify pretreatment biomarkers that can accurately forecast the response to an evidence-based behavioral treatment, Virtual Reality-Social Cognition Training (VR-SCT). In a preliminary sample of 17 young adults with high-functioning ASD, we identified neural predictors of change in emotion recognition after VR-SCT. The predictors were characterized by the pretreatment brain activations to biological vs. scrambled motion in the neural circuits that support (a) language comprehension and interpretation of incongruent auditory emotions and prosody, and (b) processing socio-emotional experience and interpersonal affective information, as well as emotional regulation. The predictive value of the findings for individual adults with ASD was supported by regression-based multivariate pattern analyses with cross validation. To our knowledge, this is the first pilot study that shows neuroimaging-based predictive biomarkers for treatment effectiveness in adults with ASD. The findings have potentially far-reaching implications for developing more precise and effective treatments for ASD. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicting personality disorder functioning styles by the Chinese Adjective Descriptors of Personality: a preliminary trial in healthy people and personality disorder patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Hongying; Zhu, Qisha; Ma, Guorong; Shen, Chanchan; Zhang, Bingren; Wang, Wei

    2016-08-30

    Cultural and personality factors might contribute to the clinical differences of psychiatric patients all over the world including China. One cultural oriented Chinese Adjective Descriptors of Personality (CADP) designed to measure normal personality traits, might be specifically associated with different personality disorder functioning styles. We therefore have invited 201 healthy volunteers and 67 personality disorder patients to undergo CADP, the Parker Personality Measure (PERM), and the Plutchik-van Praag Depression Inventory (PVP) tests. Patients scored significantly higher on PVP scale and all 11 PERM personality disorder functioning styles, as well as CADP Emotional and Unsocial traits. The PVP was significantly correlated with some CADP traits and PERM styles in both groups. In healthy volunteers, only one CADP trait, Unsocial, prominently predicted 11 PERM styles. By contrast in patients, CADP Intelligent predicted the PERM Narcissistic and Passive-Aggressive styles; CADP Emotional the PERM Paranoid, Borderline, and Histrionic styles; CADP Conscientious the PERM Obsessive-Compulsive style; CADP Unsocial the PERM Schizotypal, Antisocial, Narcissistic, Avoidant, Dependent, and Passive-Aggressive styles; CADP Agreeable the PERM Antisocial style. As a preliminary study, our results demonstrated that, in personality disorder patients, all five CADP traits were specifically associated with almost all 11 personality disorder functioning styles, indicating that CADP might be used as an aid to diagnose personality disorders in China.

  4. A semiquantitative MRI-Score can predict loss of lung function in patients with cystic fibrosis: Preliminary results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, Juergen F.; Schmidt, Katharina; Teufel, Matthias; Fleischer, Sabrina; Gatidis, Sergios; Schaefer, Susanne; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Tsiflikas, Ilias [University Hospital of Tuebingen, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Tuebingen (Germany); Hector, Andreas; Graepler-Mainka, Ute; Riethmueller, Joachim; Hartl, Dominik [University Children' s Hospital of Tuebingen, Department of Paediatrics I, Tuebingen (Germany)

    2018-01-15

    To evaluate the applicability of a semiquantitative MRI scoring system (MR-CF-S) as a prognostic marker for clinical course of cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. This observational study of a single-centre CF cohort included a group of 61 patients (mean age 12.9 ± 4.7 years) receiving morphological and functional pulmonary MRI, pulmonary function testing (PFT) and follow-up of 2 years. MRI was analysed by three raters using MR-CF-S. The inter-rater agreement, correlation of score categories with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV{sub 1}) at baseline, and the predictive value of clinical parameters, and score categories was assessed for the whole cohort and a subgroup of 40 patients with moderately impaired lung function. The inter-rater agreement of MR-CF-S was sufficient (mean intraclass correlation coefficient 0.92). MR-CF-S (-0.62; p < 0.05) and most of the categories significantly correlated with FEV{sub 1}. Differences between patients with relevant loss of FEV{sub 1} (>3%/year) and normal course were only significant for MR-CF-S (p < 0.05) but not for clinical parameters. Centrilobular opacity (CO) was the most promising score category for prediction of a decline of FEV{sub 1} (area under curve: whole cohort 0.69; subgroup 0.86). MR-CF-S is promising to predict a loss of lung function. CO seems to be a particular finding in CF patients with an abnormal course. (orig.)

  5. Simple Modification of the Bladder Outlet Obstruction Index for Better Prediction of Endoscopically-Proven Prostatic Obstruction: A Preliminary Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jang Hee Han

    Full Text Available The bladder outlet obstruction index (BOOI, also known as the Abrams-Griffiths (AG number, is the most widely used index for predicting BOO. However, the obstructed prostatic urethra determined by the BOOI is often inconsistent with endoscopically-proven obstruction. We assessed abdominal straining pattern as a novel parameter for improving the prediction of BOO.We retrospectively reviewed the pressure-flow studies (PFS and cystourethroscopy in 176 BPH/LUTS patients who were unresponsive to medical therapy. During PFS, some groups of patients tried to urinate with abdominal straining, which can increases intravesical pressure and underestimate BOOI theoretically. Accordingly, the modified BOOI was defined as (PdetQmax+ΔPabd-2Qmax.Ultimately, 130 patients were eligible for the analysis. In PFS, ΔPabd (PabdQmax-initial Pabd was 11.81±13.04 cmH2O, and it was 0-9 cmH2O in 75 (57.7%, 10-19 cmH2O in 23 (17.7% and ≥20 cmH2O in 32 (24.6% patients. An endoscopically obstructed prostatic urethra in 92 patients was correctly determined in 47 patients (51.1% by the original BOOI versus 72 patients (78.3% based on the modified BOOI. Meanwhile, an "unobstructed" urethra according to the original BOOI was present in 11 patients (12.0%, whereas according to the modified BOOI, only 2 (2.1% would be labeled as "unobstructed". In receiver operating characteristic curves, the area under the curve was 0.906 using the modified BOOI number versus 0.849 in the original BOOI (p<0.05.The change in abdominal pressure was correlated with endoscopically-proven obstruction. Our simple modification of the BOOI on the basis of this finding better predicted bladder outlet obstruction and, therefore, should be considered when evaluating BOO in patients with LUTS/BPH.

  6. Interactive reliability assessment using an integrated reliability data bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allan, R.N.; Whitehead, A.M.

    1986-01-01

    The logical structure, techniques and practical application of a computer-aided technique based on a microcomputer using floppy disc Random Access Files is described. This interactive computational technique is efficient if the reliability prediction program is coupled directly to a relevant source of data to create an integrated reliability assessment/reliability data bank system. (DG)

  7. Reliable Prediction with Tuned Range-Separated Functionals of the Singlet-Triplet Gap in Organic Emitters for Thermally Activated Delayed Fluorescence (TADF)

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Haitao

    2015-07-09

    The thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) mechanism has recently attracted much interest in the field of organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs). TADF relies on the presence of a very small energy gap between the lowest singlet and triplet excited states. Here, we demonstrate that time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) in the Tamm-Dancoff Approximation can be very successful in the calculations of the lowest singlet and triplet excitation energies and the corresponding singlet-triplet gap when using nonempirically tuned range-separated functionals. Such functionals provide very good estimates in a series of 17 molecules used in TADF-based OLED devices, with mean absolute deviations of 0.15 eV for the vertical singlet excitation energies and 0.09 eV [0.07 eV] for the adiabatic [vertical] singlet-triplet energy gaps as well as low relative errors and high correlation coefficients compared to the corresponding experimental values. They significantly outperform conventional functionals, a feature which is rationalized on the basis of the amount of exact-exchange included and the delocalization error. The present work provides a reliable theoretical tool for the prediction and development of novel TADF-based materials with low singlet-triplet energetic splittings.

  8. Forgetting the best when predicting the worst: Preliminary observations on neural circuit function in adolescent social anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna M. Jarcho

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Social anxiety disorder typically begins in adolescence, a sensitive period for brain development, when increased complexity and salience of peer relationships requires novel forms of social learning. Disordered social learning in adolescence may explain how brain dysfunction promotes social anxiety. Socially anxious adolescents (n = 15 and adults (n = 19 and non-anxious adolescents (n = 24 and adults (n = 32 predicted, then received, social feedback from high and low-value peers while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. A surprise recall task assessed memory biases for feedback. Neural correlates of social evaluation prediction errors (PEs were assessed by comparing engagement to expected and unexpected positive and negative feedback. For socially anxious adolescents, but not adults or healthy participants of either age group, PEs elicited heightened striatal activity and negative fronto-striatal functional connectivity. This occurred selectively to unexpected positive feedback from high-value peers and corresponded with impaired memory for social feedback. While impaired memory also occurred in socially-anxious adults, this impairment was unrelated to brain-based PE activity. Thus, social anxiety in adolescence may relate to altered neural correlates of PEs that contribute to impaired learning about social feedback. Small samples necessitate replication. Nevertheless, results suggest that the relationship between learning and fronto-striatal function may attenuate as development progresses.

  9. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.

    1987-01-01

    Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

  10. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  11. Preliminary study of soil permeability properties using principal component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yulianti, M.; Sudriani, Y.; Rustini, H. A.

    2018-02-01

    Soil permeability measurement is undoubtedly important in carrying out soil-water research such as rainfall-runoff modelling, irrigation water distribution systems, etc. It is also known that acquiring reliable soil permeability data is rather laborious, time-consuming, and costly. Therefore, it is desirable to develop the prediction model. Several studies of empirical equations for predicting permeability have been undertaken by many researchers. These studies derived the models from areas which soil characteristics are different from Indonesian soil, which suggest a possibility that these permeability models are site-specific. The purpose of this study is to identify which soil parameters correspond strongly to soil permeability and propose a preliminary model for permeability prediction. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to 16 parameters analysed from 37 sites consist of 91 samples obtained from Batanghari Watershed. Findings indicated five variables that have strong correlation with soil permeability, and we recommend a preliminary permeability model, which is potential for further development.

  12. Preliminary results for validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics for prediction of flow through a split vane spacer grid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashkovan, A.; Novog, D.R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of the CFD simulations of turbulent flow past spacer grid with mixing vanes. This study summarizes the first stage of the ongoing numerical blind exercise organized by OECD-NEA. McMaster University along with other participants plan to submit a numerical prediction of the detailed flow field and turbulence characteristics of the flow past 5x5 rod bundle with a spacer grid equipped with two types of mixing vanes. The results will be compared with blind experimental measurements performed in Korea. Due to the fact that a number of the modeling strategies are suggested in literature for such types of flows, we have performed a series of tests to assess the mesh requirements, flow steadiness, turbulence modeling and wall treatment effects. Results of these studies are reported in the present paper. (author)

  13. Bivariate Left-Censored Bayesian Model for Predicting Exposure: Preliminary Analysis of Worker Exposure during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groth, Caroline; Banerjee, Sudipto; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Stenzel, Mark R; Sandler, Dale P; Blair, Aaron; Engel, Lawrence S; Kwok, Richard K; Stewart, Patricia A

    2017-01-01

    In April 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caught fire and exploded, releasing almost 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico over the ensuing 3 months. Thousands of oil spill workers participated in the spill response and clean-up efforts. The GuLF STUDY being conducted by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences is an epidemiological study to investigate potential adverse health effects among these oil spill clean-up workers. Many volatile chemicals were released from the oil into the air, including total hydrocarbons (THC), which is a composite of the volatile components of oil including benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, and hexane (BTEXH). Our goal is to estimate exposure levels to these toxic chemicals for groups of oil spill workers in the study (hereafter called exposure groups, EGs) with likely comparable exposure distributions. A large number of air measurements were collected, but many EGs are characterized by datasets with a large percentage of censored measurements (below the analytic methods' limits of detection) and/or a limited number of measurements. We use THC for which there was less censoring to develop predictive linear models for specific BTEXH air exposures with higher degrees of censoring. We present a novel Bayesian hierarchical linear model that allows us to predict, for different EGs simultaneously, exposure levels of a second chemical while accounting for censoring in both THC and the chemical of interest. We illustrate the methodology by estimating exposure levels for several EGs on the Development Driller III, a rig vessel charged with drilling one of the relief wells. The model provided credible estimates in this example for geometric means, arithmetic means, variances, correlations, and regression coefficients for each group. This approach should be considered when estimating exposures in situations when multiple chemicals are correlated and have varying degrees of censoring. © The Author 2017

  14. Prediction of response to first-line chemotherapy with steamboat's imaging in lymphoma patients. A preliminary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spyridonidis, T.; Apostolopoulos, D.; Giannakenas, C.; Xourgia, X.; Vasilakosa, P.; Frangos, S.; Matsouka, P.

    2004-01-01

    Full text: Sestamibi is a transport substrate for both Pgp and MRP, which are closely related to MDR (multidrug resistance), a significant factor for chemotherapy treatment failure in many cancer patients. Imaging with Tc99m-Sestamibi has been studied for predicting chemotherapy response mainly in breast and lung cancer. A few studies exist regarding lymphoma patients. In our study we included 24 consecutive lymphoma patients that were referred to our department for initial (before treatment) Ga-67 scan. All these patients were also imaged with Tc99m-Sestamibi in order to evaluate its prognostic value in predicting response to first-line chemotherapy. 20 mCi of Tc99m-Sestamibi was injected intravenously and planar images of the whole body were obtained at 15 min and 2 hours later. In 21/24 patients SPECT was performed in area of interest (most commonly in thorax) both in early and late imaging. Ratios of tumor average counts to background in early and late planar and SPECT images were calculated, also ratios of max tumor counts to background were calculated, as well as tumor washout rate. In all the estimations time decay correction was applied. A visual interpretation score was introduced for early uptake and another for Sestamibi retention in late images. Early uptake score was considered 0 in no or nearly no uptake, 1 in low uptake, 2 in moderate uptake, and 3 in high uptake. Tumor retention score was considered 0 in no retention (not or nearly not visible on late images), 1 in slight/moderate uptake (tumor better seen on early images), 2 in moderate uptake (tumor seen similar/somehow better in late images), 3 high retention (tumor definitely seen better on late images). Finally a total prognostic score (TPS) was derived by the sum of the two above-mentioned scores (uptake score plus retention score). The mean age of our patients was 48.8 ±13.9 years (range 17-80 years). 12 patients were men, and 12 women. There were 8 patients with HD and 16 with NHL. Three of

  15. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  16. Preliminary validation of computational model for neutron flux prediction of Thai Research Reactor (TRR-1/M1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabaibang, S.; Lekchaum, S.; Tipayakul, C.

    2015-05-01

    This study is a part of an on-going work to develop a computational model of Thai Research Reactor (TRR-1/M1) which is capable of accurately predicting the neutron flux level and spectrum. The computational model was created by MCNPX program and the CT (Central Thimble) in-core irradiation facility was selected as the location for validation. The comparison was performed with the typical flux measurement method routinely practiced at TRR-1/M1, that is, the foil activation technique. In this technique, gold foil is irradiated for a certain period of time and the activity of the irradiated target is measured to derive the thermal neutron flux. Additionally, the flux measurement with SPND (self-powered neutron detector) was also performed for comparison. The thermal neutron flux from the MCNPX simulation was found to be 1.79×1013 neutron/cm2s while that from the foil activation measurement was 4.68×1013 neutron/cm2s. On the other hand, the thermal neutron flux from the measurement using SPND was 2.47×1013 neutron/cm2s. An assessment of the differences among the three methods was done. The difference of the MCNPX with the foil activation technique was found to be 67.8% and the difference of the MCNPX with the SPND was found to be 27.8%.

  17. Reliability of construction materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merz, H.

    1976-01-01

    One can also speak of reliability with respect to materials. While for reliability of components the MTBF (mean time between failures) is regarded as the main criterium, this is replaced with regard to materials by possible failure mechanisms like physical/chemical reaction mechanisms, disturbances of physical or chemical equilibrium, or other interactions or changes of system. The main tasks of the reliability analysis of materials therefore is the prediction of the various failure reasons, the identification of interactions, and the development of nondestructive testing methods. (RW) [de

  18. Structural Reliability Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

    The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...... of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature...... of the uncertainties and their interplay is the developed, step-by-step. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text....

  19. External Validation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity of the Modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity Scoring System to Predict Stone-Free Status After Retrograde Intrarenal Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juhyun; Kang, Minyong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Oh, Sohee; Lee, Jeong Woo; Lee, Seung Bae; Son, Hwancheol; Jeong, Hyeon; Cho, Sung Yong

    2015-08-01

    The modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity scoring system (S-ReSC-R) for retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) was developed as a tool to predict stone-free rate (SFR) after RIRS. We externally validated the S-ReSC-R. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients who underwent RIRS. The S-ReSC-R was assigned from 1 to 12 according to the location and number of sites involved. The stone-free status was defined as no evidence of a stone or with clinically insignificant residual fragment stones less than 2 mm. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities were evaluated. Statistical performance of the prediction model was assessed by its predictive accuracy, predictive probability, and clinical usefulness. Overall SFR was 73.0%. The SFRs were 86.7%, 70.2%, and 48.6% in low-score (1-2), intermediate-score (3-4), and high-score (5-12) groups, respectively (pR revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.731 (95% CI 0.650-0.813). The AUC of the three-titered S-ReSC-R was 0.701 (95% CI 0.609-0.794). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probability of SFR had a concordance comparable to that of observed frequency. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test revealed a p-value of 0.01 for the S-ReSC-R and 0.90 for the three-titered S-ReSC-R. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities revealed an almost perfect level of agreement. The present study proved the predictive value of S-ReSC-R to predict SFR following RIRS in an independent cohort. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities confirmed that S-ReSC-R was reliable and valid.

  20. Neurophysiological correlates of response inhibition predict relapse in detoxified alcoholic patients: some preliminary evidence from event-related potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petit G

    2014-06-01

    response-inhibition skills that demand greater neural resources. We propose that event-related potentials can be used in conjunction with behavioral data to predict relapse; this would identify patients that need a higher level of neural resources when suppressing a response is requested.Keywords: alcoholism, relapse, response inhibition, go/no-go task, ERPs, P3d 

  1. Prediction of emergence agitation using withdrawal reaction following rocuronium injection in preschool-aged patients undergoing inguinal herniorrhaphy: a preliminary exploratory observational trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dae Hee; Roh, Go Un; Lee, Young Bok; Choi, Chang Ik; Lee, Jae Moon; Chae, Yun Jeong

    2018-01-01

    The development of emergence agitation (EA) is associated with several factors including age, preoperative anxiety, postoperative pain, anesthesia method, and surgery type. No studies have investigated whether the withdrawal reaction following rocuronium injection can predict the occurrence of EA. Therefore, we investigated this relationship in preschool-aged children undergoing inguinal herniorrhaphy, and which grade of withdrawal reaction is appropriate for identifying patients at risk of experiencing EA. A total of 40 patients were enrolled in this study. During anesthesia induction, the withdrawal reaction after loss of consciousness following rocuronium injection was assessed using a 4-point scale. After surgery, EA was assessed using the Watcha scale. There was a correlation between withdrawal reaction and EA on admission to the postanesthesia care unit (PACU). Patients with a severe withdrawal reaction (grade 3) showed a significantly higher incidence of severe EA requiring medication on admission to the PACU. The findings of this preliminary exploratory observational study suggest that it is possible for withdrawal movement following rocuronium injection during anesthesia induction to reflect pain sensitivity of pediatric patients, which in turn may be useful in identifying those at risk of severe EA on admission to the PACU among preschool children undergoing inguinal herniorrhaphy. Further studies with a larger sample size are required to validate these findings. The exact correlation between pain reaction following rocuronium injection and postoperative pain or pain-related phenomenon should be elucidated.

  2. Visible and near infrared spectroscopy as an authentication tool: Preliminary investigation of the prediction of the ageing time of beef steaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Lara; Andres, Sonia; Allen, Paul; Moloney, Aidan P

    2018-08-01

    Visible-near infrared spectroscopy (Vis-NIRS) has been suggested to have potential for authentication of food products. The aim of the present preliminary study was to assess if this technology can be used to authenticate the ageing time (3, 7, 14 and 21 days post mortem) of beef steaks from three different muscles (M. Longissimus thoracis, M. Gluteus medius and M. Semitendinosus). Various mathematical pre-treatments were applied to the spectra to correct scattering and overlapping effects, and then partial least squares-discrimination analysis (PLS-DA) procedures applied. The best models were specific for each muscle, and the ability of prediction of ageing time was validated using full (leave-one-out) cross-validation, whereas authentication performance was evaluated using the parameters of sensitivity, specificity and overall correct classification. The results indicate that overall correct classification ranging from 94.2 to 100% was achieved, depending on the muscle. In conclusion, Vis-NIRS technology seems a valid tool for the authentication of ageing time of beef steaks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Prediction of emergence agitation using withdrawal reaction following rocuronium injection in preschool-aged patients undergoing inguinal herniorrhaphy: a preliminary exploratory observational trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim DH

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Dae Hee Kim,1 Go Un Roh,2 Young Bok Lee,3 Chang Ik Choi,3 Jae Moon Lee,3 Yun Jeong Chae1 1Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, 2Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam, 3Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea Purpose: The development of emergence agitation (EA is associated with several factors including age, preoperative anxiety, postoperative pain, anesthesia method, and surgery type. No studies have investigated whether the withdrawal reaction following rocuronium injection can predict the occurrence of EA. Therefore, we investigated this relationship in preschool-aged children undergoing inguinal herniorrhaphy, and which grade of withdrawal reaction is appropriate for identifying patients at risk of experiencing EA. Methods: A total of 40 patients were enrolled in this study. During anesthesia induction, the withdrawal reaction after loss of consciousness following rocuronium injection was assessed using a 4-point scale. After surgery, EA was assessed using the Watcha scale. Results: There was a correlation between withdrawal reaction and EA on admission to the postanesthesia care unit (PACU. Patients with a severe withdrawal reaction (grade 3 showed a significantly higher incidence of severe EA requiring medication on admission to the PACU. Conclusion: The findings of this preliminary exploratory observational study suggest that it is possible for withdrawal movement following rocuronium injection during anesthesia induction to reflect pain sensitivity of pediatric patients, which in turn may be useful in identifying those at risk of severe EA on admission to the PACU among preschool children undergoing inguinal herniorrhaphy. Further studies with a larger sample size are required to validate these findings. The exact correlation between pain

  4. Imitation (rather than core language) predicts pragmatic development in young children with ASD: a preliminary longitudinal study using CDI parental reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miniscalco, Carmela; Rudling, Maja; Råstam, Maria; Gillberg, Christopher; Johnels, Jakob Åsberg

    2014-01-01

    Research in the last decades has clearly pointed to the important role of language and communicative level when trying to understand developmental trajectories in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). The purpose of this longitudinal study was to investigate whether (1) core language skills, measured as expressive vocabulary and grammar, and/or (2) pre-linguistic social-communicative skills, including gestures and imitation abilities, drive pragmatic language development in young children with ASD. We examined correlates and longitudinal predictors of pragmatic growth in a sample of 34 children with Autism spectrum disorder (ASD), whose parents were given parts of two MacArthur Communicative Developmental Inventories (CDI: Words & Gestures and CDI: Words & Sentences) for completion at two time points (at time 1 the mean child age was 41 months, and at time 2 it was 54 months). A novel feature in this study is that the relevant parts from both CDI forms were included at both time points, allowing us to examine whether pre-linguistic social-communication skills (e.g. imitation and gesturing) and/or core language skills (i.e. grammar and vocabulary) predict pragmatic language growth. The results show that basically all pre-linguistic, linguistic and pragmatic skills were associated concurrently. When controlling for possible confounders and for the autoregressive effect, imitation skills predicted pragmatic growth over time, whereas core language did not. This could only have been shown by the use of both CDI forms. This preliminary study may be of both conceptual and methodological importance for research in the field of language and communication development in ASD. Imitation may play a pivotal role in the development of subsequent conversational pragmatic abilities in young children with ASD. Future research should be directed at unravelling the mechanisms underlying this association. © 2014 Royal College of Speech and Language Therapists.

  5. Reliability Engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Lazzaroni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be

  6. Reliability training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.

    1992-01-01

    Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.

  7. Software reliability studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoppa, Mary Ann; Wilson, Larry W.

    1994-01-01

    There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Our research has shown that by improving the quality of the data one can greatly improve the predictions. We are working on methodologies which control some of the randomness inherent in the standard data generation processes in order to improve the accuracy of predictions. Our contribution is twofold in that we describe an experimental methodology using a data structure called the debugging graph and apply this methodology to assess the robustness of existing models. The debugging graph is used to analyze the effects of various fault recovery orders on the predictive accuracy of several well-known software reliability algorithms. We found that, along a particular debugging path in the graph, the predictive performance of different models can vary greatly. Similarly, just because a model 'fits' a given path's data well does not guarantee that the model would perform well on a different path. Further we observed bug interactions and noted their potential effects on the predictive process. We saw that not only do different faults fail at different rates, but that those rates can be affected by the particular debugging stage at which the rates are evaluated. Based on our experiment, we conjecture that the accuracy of a reliability prediction is affected by the fault recovery order as well as by fault interaction.

  8. Measuring social skills of children and adolescents in a Chinese population: Preliminary evidence on the reliability and validity of the translated Chinese version of the Social Skills Improvement System-Rating Scales (SSIS-RS-C).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Phoebe P P; Siu, Andrew M H; Brown, Ted

    2017-01-01

    The Social Skills Improvement System-Rating Scales (SSIS-RS; Gresham & Elliott, 2008) are designed to assist in the screening and classification of students (aged 5-18 years) who are suspected of presenting with social skills deficits and to offer guidelines in the development of interventions to remediate those types of problems. The objective of this study is to examine the preliminary reliability and validity of the translated Chinese version of the SSIS-RS, referred to as the SSIS-RS-C. In this study, parent-reported social skills and problem behaviors among students with typical development (n=79) were compared with those of age- and gender-matched students with a known developmental disability (n=79) using the SSIS-RS-C. The results indicated that the SSIS-RS-C subscale scores in all the disability groups were significantly different except for those in the Assertion scale for one disability group. Furthermore, the normative sample of typically developing children and adolescents (aged 5-12 and 13-18 years, n=567) from Hong Kong was established to improve the psychometric properties of the SSIS-RS-C. There were moderate to strong relationships between the common subscales across all forms of the SSIS-RS-C. Acceptable to excellent levels of internal consistency across all common subscales was also obtained. The scores for the Hong Kong sample (n=567) derived from the use of the SSIS-RS-C were then compared to the normative sample scores from the American version of the SSIS-RS. It was found that there were statistically significant differences on five out of the seven SSIS-RS-C Social Skill subscales for children aged 5-12 years and on four out of the seven SSIS-RS-C Social Skills subscales for the adolescent group (aged 13-18 years). Also, there were statistically significant differences between the American and Hong Kong samples on all of the SSIS-RS-C Problem Behavior scale scores. It was concluded that the SSIS-RS-C is a promising instrument for clinicians

  9. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1986-03-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  10. Systems reliability/structural reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)

  11. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles-improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA).

    KAUST Repository

    Grö tzinger, Stefan W.; Alam, Intikhab; Ba Alawi, Wail; Bajic, Vladimir B.; Stingl, Ulrich; Eppinger, Jö rg

    2014-01-01

    Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs) and poor homology of novel extremophile's genomes pose significant

  12. Reliable prediction of clinical outcome in patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis: a validated model using objective and readily available clinical parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Meer, Adriaan J; Hansen, Bettina E; Fattovich, Giovanna; Feld, Jordan J; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Dufour, Jean-François; Lammert, Frank; Duarte-Rojo, Andres; Manns, Michael P; Ieluzzi, Donatella; Zeuzem, Stefan; Hofmann, W Peter; de Knegt, Robert J; Veldt, Bart J; Janssen, Harry L A

    2015-02-01

    Reliable tools to predict long-term outcome among patients with well compensated advanced liver disease due to chronic HCV infection are lacking. Risk scores for mortality and for cirrhosis-related complications were constructed with Cox regression analysis in a derivation cohort and evaluated in a validation cohort, both including patients with chronic HCV infection and advanced fibrosis. In the derivation cohort, 100/405 patients died during a median 8.1 (IQR 5.7-11.1) years of follow-up. Multivariate Cox analyses showed age (HR=1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, pstatistic=0.78, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.83). In the validation cohort, 58/296 patients with cirrhosis died during a median of 6.6 (IQR 4.4-9.0) years. Among patients with estimated 5-year mortality risks 10%, the observed 5-year mortality rates in the derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.9% (95% CI 0.0 to 2.7) and 2.6% (95% CI 0.0 to 6.1), 8.1% (95% CI 1.8 to 14.4) and 8.0% (95% CI 1.3 to 14.7), 21.8% (95% CI 13.2 to 30.4) and 20.9% (95% CI 13.6 to 28.1), respectively (C statistic in validation cohort = 0.76, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.83). The risk score for cirrhosis-related complications also incorporated HCV genotype (C statistic = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.83 in the derivation cohort; and 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.79 in the validation cohort). Prognosis of patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced liver disease can be accurately assessed with risk scores including readily available objective clinical parameters. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  13. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubb, H.

    1992-01-01

    This book resulted from the activity of Task Force 4.2 - 'Human Reliability'. This group was established on February 27th, 1986, at the plenary meeting of the Technical Reliability Committee of VDI, within the framework of the joint committee of VDI on industrial systems technology - GIS. It is composed of representatives of industry, representatives of research institutes, of technical control boards and universities, whose job it is to study how man fits into the technical side of the world of work and to optimize this interaction. In a total of 17 sessions, information from the part of ergonomy dealing with human reliability in using technical systems at work was exchanged, and different methods for its evaluation were examined and analyzed. The outcome of this work was systematized and compiled in this book. (orig.) [de

  14. Microelectronics Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-17

    inverters  connected in a chain. ................................................. 5  Figure 3  Typical graph showing frequency versus square root of...developing an experimental  reliability estimating methodology that could both illuminate the  lifetime  reliability of advanced devices,  circuits and...or  FIT of the device. In other words an accurate estimate of the device  lifetime  was found and thus the  reliability  that  can  be  conveniently

  15. Field reliability of electronic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elm, T.

    1984-02-01

    This report investigates, through several examples from the field, the reliability of electronic units in a broader sense. That is, it treats not just random parts failure, but also inadequate reliability design and (externally and internally) induced failures. The report is not meant to be merely an indication of the state of the art for the reliability prediction methods we know, but also as a contribution to the investigation of man-machine interplay in the operation and repair of electronic equipment. The report firmly links electronics reliability to safety and risk analyses approaches with a broader, system oriented view of reliability prediction and with postfailure stress analysis. It is intended to reveal, in a qualitative manner, the existence of symptom and cause patterns. It provides a background for further investigations to identify the detailed mechanisms of the faults and the remedical actions and precautions for achieving cost effective reliability. (author)

  16. Reliability and validity of the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Chau

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Wolfram syndrome (WFS is a rare, neurodegenerative disease that typically presents with childhood onset insulin dependent diabetes mellitus, followed by optic atrophy, diabetes insipidus, deafness, and neurological and psychiatric dysfunction. There is no cure for the disease, but recent advances in research have improved understanding of the disease course. Measuring disease severity and progression with reliable and validated tools is a prerequisite for clinical trials of any new intervention for neurodegenerative conditions. To this end, we developed the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS to measure the severity and individual variability of WFS symptoms. The aim of this study is to develop and test the reliability and validity of the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS. Methods A rating scale of disease severity in WFS was developed by modifying a standardized assessment for another neurodegenerative condition (Batten disease. WFS experts scored the representativeness of WURS items for the disease. The WURS was administered to 13 individuals with WFS (6-25 years of age. Motor, balance, mood and quality of life were also evaluated with standard instruments. Inter-rater reliability, internal consistency reliability, concurrent, predictive and content validity of the WURS were calculated. Results The WURS had high inter-rater reliability (ICCs>.93, moderate to high internal consistency reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.78-0.91 and demonstrated good concurrent and predictive validity. There were significant correlations between the WURS Physical Assessment and motor and balance tests (rs>.67, ps>.76, ps=-.86, p=.001. The WURS demonstrated acceptable content validity (Scale-Content Validity Index=0.83. Conclusions These preliminary findings demonstrate that the WURS has acceptable reliability and validity and captures individual differences in disease severity in children and young adults with WFS.

  17. Redefining reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, S.L.

    1995-01-01

    Want to buy some reliability? The question would have been unthinkable in some markets served by the natural gas business even a few years ago, but in the new gas marketplace, industrial, commercial and even some residential customers have the opportunity to choose from among an array of options about the kind of natural gas service they need--and are willing to pay for. The complexities of this brave new world of restructuring and competition have sent the industry scrambling to find ways to educate and inform its customers about the increased responsibility they will have in determining the level of gas reliability they choose. This article discusses the new options and the new responsibilities of customers, the needed for continuous education, and MidAmerican Energy Company's experiment in direct marketing of natural gas

  18. Reliability Analysis Techniques for Communication Networks in Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, T. J.; Jang, S. C.; Kang, H. G.; Kim, M. C.; Eom, H. S.; Lee, H. J.

    2006-09-01

    The objectives of this project is to investigate and study existing reliability analysis techniques for communication networks in order to develop reliability analysis models for nuclear power plant's safety-critical networks. It is necessary to make a comprehensive survey of current methodologies for communication network reliability. Major outputs of this study are design characteristics of safety-critical communication networks, efficient algorithms for quantifying reliability of communication networks, and preliminary models for assessing reliability of safety-critical communication networks

  19. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles—improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grötzinger, Stefan W.; Alam, Intikhab; Ba Alawi, Wail; Bajic, Vladimir B.; Stingl, Ulrich; Eppinger, Jörg

    2014-01-01

    Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs) and poor homology of novel extremophile's genomes pose significant challenges for the attribution of functions to the coding sequences identified. The anoxic deep-sea brine pools of the Red Sea are a promising source of novel enzymes with unique evolutionary adaptation. Sequencing data from Red Sea brine pool cultures and SAGs are annotated and stored in the Integrated Data Warehouse of Microbial Genomes (INDIGO) data warehouse. Low sequence homology of annotated genes (no similarity for 35% of these genes) may translate into false positives when searching for specific functions. The Profile and Pattern Matching (PPM) strategy described here was developed to eliminate false positive annotations of enzyme function before progressing to labor-intensive hyper-saline gene expression and characterization. It utilizes InterPro-derived Gene Ontology (GO)-terms (which represent enzyme function profiles) and annotated relevant PROSITE IDs (which are linked to an amino acid consensus pattern). The PPM algorithm was tested on 15 protein families, which were selected based on scientific and commercial potential. An initial list of 2577 enzyme commission (E.C.) numbers was translated into 171 GO-terms and 49 consensus patterns. A subset of INDIGO-sequences consisting of 58 SAGs from six different taxons of bacteria and archaea were selected from six different brine pool environments. Those SAGs code for 74,516 genes, which were independently scanned for the GO-terms (profile filter) and PROSITE IDs (pattern filter). Following stringent reliability filtering, the non-redundant hits (106 profile hits and 147 pattern hits) are classified as reliable, if at least two relevant descriptors (GO-terms and/or consensus patterns) are present. Scripts for annotation, as well as for the PPM algorithm, are available

  20. Reliability of the Load-Velocity Relationship Obtained Through Linear and Polynomial Regression Models to Predict the One-Repetition Maximum Load.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pestaña-Melero, Francisco Luis; Haff, G Gregory; Rojas, Francisco Javier; Pérez-Castilla, Alejandro; García-Ramos, Amador

    2017-12-18

    This study aimed to compare the between-session reliability of the load-velocity relationship between (1) linear vs. polynomial regression models, (2) concentric-only vs. eccentric-concentric bench press variants, as well as (3) the within-participants vs. the between-participants variability of the velocity attained at each percentage of the one-repetition maximum (%1RM). The load-velocity relationship of 30 men (age: 21.2±3.8 y; height: 1.78±0.07 m, body mass: 72.3±7.3 kg; bench press 1RM: 78.8±13.2 kg) were evaluated by means of linear and polynomial regression models in the concentric-only and eccentric-concentric bench press variants in a Smith Machine. Two sessions were performed with each bench press variant. The main findings were: (1) first-order-polynomials (CV: 4.39%-4.70%) provided the load-velocity relationship with higher reliability than second-order-polynomials (CV: 4.68%-5.04%); (2) the reliability of the load-velocity relationship did not differ between the concentric-only and eccentric-concentric bench press variants; (3) the within-participants variability of the velocity attained at each %1RM was markedly lower than the between-participants variability. Taken together, these results highlight that, regardless of the bench press variant considered, the individual determination of the load-velocity relationship by a linear regression model could be recommended to monitor and prescribe the relative load in the Smith machine bench press exercise.

  1. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles – Improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Wolfgang Grötzinger

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs and poor homology of novel extremophile’s genomes pose significant challenges for the attribution of functions to the coding sequences identified. The anoxic deep-sea brine pools of the Red Sea are a promising source of novel enzymes with unique evolutionary adaptation. Sequencing data from Red Sea brine pool cultures and SAGs are annotated and stored in the INDIGO data warehouse. Low sequence homology of annotated genes (no similarity for 35% of these genes may translate into false positives when searching for specific functions. The Profile & Pattern Matching (PPM strategy described here was developed to eliminate false positive annotations of enzyme function before progressing to labor-intensive hyper-saline gene expression and characterization. It utilizes InterPro-derived Gene Ontology (GO-terms (which represent enzyme function profiles and annotated relevant PROSITE IDs (which are linked to an amino acid consensus pattern. The PPM algorithm was tested on 15 protein families, which were selected based on scientific and commercial potential. An initial list of 2,577 E.C. numbers was translated into 171 GO-terms and 49 consensus patterns. A subset of INDIGO-sequences consisting of 58 SAGs from six different taxons of bacteria and archaea were selected from 6 different brine pool environments. Those SAGs code for 74,516 genes, which were independently scanned for the GO-terms (profile filter and PROSITE IDs (pattern filter. Following stringent reliability filtering, the non-redundant hits (106 profile hits and 147 pattern hits are classified as reliable, if at least two relevant descriptors (GO-terms and/or consensus patterns are present. Scripts for annotation, as well as for the PPM algorithm, are available through the INDIGO website.

  2. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles-improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA).

    KAUST Repository

    Grötzinger, Stefan W.

    2014-04-07

    Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs) and poor homology of novel extremophile\\'s genomes pose significant challenges for the attribution of functions to the coding sequences identified. The anoxic deep-sea brine pools of the Red Sea are a promising source of novel enzymes with unique evolutionary adaptation. Sequencing data from Red Sea brine pool cultures and SAGs are annotated and stored in the Integrated Data Warehouse of Microbial Genomes (INDIGO) data warehouse. Low sequence homology of annotated genes (no similarity for 35% of these genes) may translate into false positives when searching for specific functions. The Profile and Pattern Matching (PPM) strategy described here was developed to eliminate false positive annotations of enzyme function before progressing to labor-intensive hyper-saline gene expression and characterization. It utilizes InterPro-derived Gene Ontology (GO)-terms (which represent enzyme function profiles) and annotated relevant PROSITE IDs (which are linked to an amino acid consensus pattern). The PPM algorithm was tested on 15 protein families, which were selected based on scientific and commercial potential. An initial list of 2577 enzyme commission (E.C.) numbers was translated into 171 GO-terms and 49 consensus patterns. A subset of INDIGO-sequences consisting of 58 SAGs from six different taxons of bacteria and archaea were selected from six different brine pool environments. Those SAGs code for 74,516 genes, which were independently scanned for the GO-terms (profile filter) and PROSITE IDs (pattern filter). Following stringent reliability filtering, the non-redundant hits (106 profile hits and 147 pattern hits) are classified as reliable, if at least two relevant descriptors (GO-terms and/or consensus patterns) are present. Scripts for annotation, as well as for the PPM algorithm, are available

  3. Binding free energy predictions of farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonists using a linear interaction energy (LIE) approach with reliability estimation: application to the D3R Grand Challenge 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rifai, Eko Aditya; van Dijk, Marc; Vermeulen, Nico P. E.; Geerke, Daan P.

    2018-01-01

    Computational protein binding affinity prediction can play an important role in drug research but performing efficient and accurate binding free energy calculations is still challenging. In the context of phase 2 of the Drug Design Data Resource (D3R) Grand Challenge 2 we used our automated eTOX ALLIES approach to apply the (iterative) linear interaction energy (LIE) method and we evaluated its performance in predicting binding affinities for farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonists. Efficiency was obtained by our pre-calibrated LIE models and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations at the nanosecond scale, while predictive accuracy was obtained for a small subset of compounds. Using our recently introduced reliability estimation metrics, we could classify predictions with higher confidence by featuring an applicability domain (AD) analysis in combination with protein-ligand interaction profiling. The outcomes of and agreement between our AD and interaction-profile analyses to distinguish and rationalize the performance of our predictions highlighted the relevance of sufficiently exploring protein-ligand interactions during training and it demonstrated the possibility to quantitatively and efficiently evaluate if this is achieved by using simulation data only.

  4. Contaminants in landfill soils - Reliability of prefeasibility studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hölzle, Ingo

    2017-05-01

    Recent landfill mining studies have researched the potential for resource recovery using samples from core drilling or grab cranes. However, most studies used small sample numbers, which may not represent the heterogeneous landfill composition. As a consequence, there exists a high risk of an incorrect economic and/or ecological evaluation. The main objective of this work is to investigate the possibilities and limitations of preliminary investigations concerning the crucial soil composition. The preliminary samples of landfill investigations were compared to the excavation samples from three completely excavated landfills in Germany. In addition, the research compared the reliability of prediction of the two investigation methods, core drilling and grab crane. Sampling using a grab crane led to better results, even for smaller investigations of 10 samples. Analyses of both methods showed sufficiently accurate results to make predictions (standard error 5%, level of confidence 95%) for most heavy metals, cyanide and PAH in the dry substance and for sulphate, barium, Benzo[a]pyrene, pH and the electrical conductivity in leachate analyses of soil type waste. While chrome and nickel showed less accurate results, the concentrations of hydrocarbons, TOC, DOC, PCB and fluorine (leachate) were not predictable even for sample numbers of up to 59. Overestimations of pollutant concentrations were more frequently apparent in drilling, and underestimations when using a grab crane. The dispersion of the element and elemental composition had no direct impact on the reliability of prediction. Thus, an individual consideration of the particular element or elemental composition for dry substance and leachate analyses is recommended to adapt the sample strategy and calculate an optimum sample number. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A preliminary model to identify low-risk MBA applicants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CA Bisschoff

    2014-08-01

    The reliability of the discriminant function rates favourably with 71% (MBA in 3 years, 62% (MBA in 4 years and 83% (dropping out of the programme being categorised correctly by the respective discriminant functions. Being a preliminary model, its predictive capabilities need to be verified in practice before it can  be implemented as tool to render assistance in MBA admissions.  The value of this research lies  in the fact that it constitutes a model that could be employed and improved as a predictive tool in an environment where very limited predictive tools exist.  Therefore, although it is by no means a tried and tested model, it sets the scene by supplying a scientific base from which incremental improvements could result.

  6. Proof tests on reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishima, Yoshitsugu

    1983-01-01

    In order to obtain public understanding on nuclear power plants, tests should be carried out to prove the reliability and safety of present LWR plants. For example, the aseismicity of nuclear power plants must be verified by using a large scale earthquake simulator. Reliability test began in fiscal 1975, and the proof tests on steam generators and on PWR support and flexure pins against stress corrosion cracking have already been completed, and the results have been internationally highly appreciated. The capacity factor of the nuclear power plant operation in Japan rose to 80% in the summer of 1983, and considering the period of regular inspection, it means the operation of almost full capacity. Japanese LWR technology has now risen to the top place in the world after having overcome the defects. The significance of the reliability test is to secure the functioning till the age limit is reached, to confirm the correct forecast of deteriorating process, to confirm the effectiveness of the remedy to defects and to confirm the accuracy of predicting the behavior of facilities. The reliability of nuclear valves, fuel assemblies, the heat affected zones in welding, reactor cooling pumps and electric instruments has been tested or is being tested. (Kako, I.)

  7. An Acoustic Charge Transport Imager for High Definition Television Applications: Reliability Modeling and Parametric Yield Prediction of GaAs Multiple Quantum Well Avalanche Photodiodes. Degree awarded Oct. 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, W. D.; Brennan, K. F.; Summers, C. J.; Yun, Ilgu

    1994-01-01

    Reliability modeling and parametric yield prediction of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiodes (APDs), which are of interest as an ultra-low noise image capture mechanism for high definition systems, have been investigated. First, the effect of various doping methods on the reliability of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiode (APD) structures fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy is investigated. Reliability is examined by accelerated life tests by monitoring dark current and breakdown voltage. Median device lifetime and the activation energy of the degradation mechanism are computed for undoped, doped-barrier, and doped-well APD structures. Lifetimes for each device structure are examined via a statistically designed experiment. Analysis of variance shows that dark-current is affected primarily by device diameter, temperature and stressing time, and breakdown voltage depends on the diameter, stressing time and APD type. It is concluded that the undoped APD has the highest reliability, followed by the doped well and doped barrier devices, respectively. To determine the source of the degradation mechanism for each device structure, failure analysis using the electron-beam induced current method is performed. This analysis reveals some degree of device degradation caused by ionic impurities in the passivation layer, and energy-dispersive spectrometry subsequently verified the presence of ionic sodium as the primary contaminant. However, since all device structures are similarly passivated, sodium contamination alone does not account for the observed variation between the differently doped APDs. This effect is explained by the dopant migration during stressing, which is verified by free carrier concentration measurements using the capacitance-voltage technique.

  8. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  9. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-01-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  10. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a reliable marker to predict insulin resistance and fibrosis stage in chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Razik, Ahmed; Mousa, Nasser; Besheer, Tarek A; Eissa, Mohamed; Elhelaly, Rania; Arafa, Mohammad; El-Wakeel, Niveen; Eldars, Waleed

    2015-12-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the most noxious infectious diseases. Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) had biochemical evidence of insulin resistance (IR). The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) integrates information on the inflammatory milieu and physiological stress. We aimed to investigate the clinical utility of NLR to predict the presence of IR and fibrosis in CHCvirus infection. The study included 234 CHC patients and 50 healthy controls. The CHC group was divided into two subgroups ; CHC with HOMA-IR>3 and CHC with HOMA-IR≤3. Liver biopsy, homeostasis model assessment-IR (HOMA-IR), neutrophil and lymphocyte counts were recorded ; and NLR was calculated. Proinflammatory cytokines [tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6)] were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Patients with HOMA-IR>3 had a higher NLR compared with patients with HOMA-IR≤3 [2.61±0.95 and 1.92±0.86, respectively, PC-reactive protein, TNF-α and IL-6 cytokines ; P3 and advanced fibrosis. This ratio can be used as a novel noninvasive marker to predict IR and advanced disease. © Acta Gastro-Enterologica Belgica.

  11. Preliminary review of critical shutdown heat removal items for common cause failure susceptibility on LMFBR's. [LMFBR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allard, L.T.; Elerath, J.G.

    1976-02-01

    This document presents a common cause failure analysis for Critical LMFBR Shutdown Heat Removal Systems. The report is intended to outline a systematic approach to defining areas with significant potential for common causes of failure, and ultimately provide inputs to the reliability prediction model. A preliminary evaluation of postulatd single initiating causes resulting in multiple failures of LMFBR-SHRS items is presented in Appendix C. This document will be periodically updated to reflect new information and activity.

  12. New Approaches to Reliability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    of energy. New approaches for reliability assessment are being taken in the design phase of power electronics systems based on the physics-of-failure in components. In this approach, many new methods, such as multidisciplinary simulation tools, strength testing of components, translation of mission profiles......, and statistical analysis, are involved to enable better prediction and design of reliability for products. This article gives an overview of the new design flow in the reliability engineering of power electronics from the system-level point of view and discusses some of the emerging needs for the technology...

  13. Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

  14. Frontiers of reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K

    1998-01-01

    This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

  15. Reliability of the ICRP's dose coefficients for members of the public: IV. Basis of the human alimentary tract model and uncertainties in model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, R.; Harrison, J.; Phipps, A.

    2007-01-01

    The biokinetic and dosimetric model of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract applied in current documents of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) was developed in the mid-1960's. The model was based on features of a reference adult male and was first used by the ICRP in Publication 30, Limits for Intakes of Radionuclides by Workers (Part 1, 1979). In the late 1990's an ICRP task group was appointed to develop a biokinetic and dosimetric model of the alimentary tract that reflects updated information and addresses current needs in radiation protection. The new age-specific and gender-specific model, called the Human Alimentary Tract Model (HATM), has been completed and will replace the GI model of Publication 30 in upcoming ICRP documents. This paper discusses the basis for the structure and parameter values of the HATM, summarises the uncertainties associated with selected features and types of predictions of the HATM and examines the sensitivity of dose estimates to these uncertainties for selected radionuclides. Emphasis is on generic biokinetic features of the HATM, particularly transit times through the lumen of the alimentary tract, but key dosimetric features of the model are outlined, and the sensitivity of tissue dose estimates to uncertainties in dosimetric as well as biokinetic features of the HATM are examined for selected radionuclides. (authors)

  16. Reliable prediction of heat transfer coefficient in three-phase bubble column reactor via adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and regularization network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garmroodi Asil, A.; Nakhaei Pour, A.; Mirzaei, Sh.

    2018-04-01

    In the present article, generalization performances of regularization network (RN) and optimize adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are compared with a conventional software for prediction of heat transfer coefficient (HTC) as a function of superficial gas velocity (5-25 cm/s) and solid fraction (0-40 wt%) at different axial and radial locations. The networks were trained by resorting several sets of experimental data collected from a specific system of air/hydrocarbon liquid phase/silica particle in a slurry bubble column reactor (SBCR). A special convection HTC measurement probe was manufactured and positioned in an axial distance of 40 and 130 cm above the sparger at center and near the wall of SBCR. The simulation results show that both in-house RN and optimized ANFIS due to powerful noise filtering capabilities provide superior performances compared to the conventional software of MATLAB ANFIS and ANN toolbox. For the case of 40 and 130 cm axial distance from center of sparger, at constant superficial gas velocity of 25 cm/s, adding 40 wt% silica particles to liquid phase leads to about 66% and 69% increasing in HTC respectively. The HTC in the column center for all the cases studied are about 9-14% larger than those near the wall region.

  17. The reliability of finite element analysis results of the low impact test in predicting the energy absorption performance of thin-walled structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alipour, R.; Nejadx, Farokhi A.; Izman, S. [Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru (Malaysia)

    2015-05-15

    The application of dual phase steels (DPS) such as DP600 in the form of thin-walled structure in automotive components is being continuously increased as vehicle designers utilize modern steel grades and low weight structures to improve structural performance, make automotive light and reinforce crash performance. Preventing cost enhancement of broad investigations in this area can be gained by using computers in structural analysis in order to substitute lots of experiments with finite element analysis (FEA). Nevertheless, it necessitates to be certified that selected method including element type and solution methodology is capable of predicting real condition. In this paper, numerical and experimental studies are done to specify the effect of element type selection and solution methodology on the results of finite element analysis in order to investigate the energy absorption behavior of a DP600 thin-walled structure with three different geometries under a low impact loading. The outcomes indicated the combination of implicit method and solid elements is in better agreement with the experiments. In addition, using a combination of shell element types with implicit method reduces the time of simulation remarkably, although the error of results compared to the experiments increased to some extent.

  18. Predictive analysis on the electric energy distribution systems reliability: applying the synerGEE system; Analisis predictivo de la confiabilidad en los sistemas de distribucion de energia electrica: aplicando el sistema synerGEE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Andrade, Carlos

    2008-12-15

    Electrical distribution systems ought to deliver electric power as economical as possible with an acceptable degree of service quality and continuity. Nevertheless, their faults represent one of the main causes of customer's unavailability. At the moment, a wide range of determinist criteria in the improvement of systems reliability based on past behavior are used, but they do not respond to the stochastic nature of system behavior, and are applied without an adequate balance between reliability and economy. In order to obtain this balance a minimum cost planning methodology that considers the predictive analysis of different investment alternatives in addition to the past behavior of the system is required, which guarantees that the economic resource available and limited will be used to gather the greater possible reliability degree. In this work this problem is approached with the fundamentals and methodologies needed to assess the design effects and operative criteria over the main reliability indexes used by the main utilities around the world, with emphasis on the need to optimize economical resources. The use of the system SynerGEETM, is investigated, probing it as a useful tool for the predictive reliability analysis. Due to the lack of experience that exists in Mexico with this type of analysis, distribution engineers has to become familiar with the concepts of the reliability engineering, their application to establish distribution systems models, and acquiring the ability to use the modern simulation tools, allowing them to evaluate the behavior of these systems with enough analytical rigor. In this sense a serial of well known study cases are presented to help them in this labor. [Spanish] Los sistemas de distribucion de energia electrica deben satisfacer la demanda de energia electrica de la forma mas economica posible, con un grado de calidad y continuidad aceptable. Sin embargo, sus fallas son una de las principales causas de indisponibilidad en

  19. A study of operational and testing reliability in software reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, B.; Xie, M.

    2000-01-01

    Software reliability is an important aspect of any complex equipment today. Software reliability is usually estimated based on reliability models such as nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models. Software systems are improving in testing phase, while it normally does not change in operational phase. Depending on whether the reliability is to be predicted for testing phase or operation phase, different measure should be used. In this paper, two different reliability concepts, namely, the operational reliability and the testing reliability, are clarified and studied in detail. These concepts have been mixed up or even misused in some existing literature. Using different reliability concept will lead to different reliability values obtained and it will further lead to different reliability-based decisions made. The difference of the estimated reliabilities is studied and the effect on the optimal release time is investigated

  20. RTE - Reliability report 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-06-01

    (AMELIE, Ampacite, iTesla, APOGEE, etc.) designed to predict constraints on the future power system and develop new tools to tackle them. And the Winter Packet, unveiled by the European Commission at the end of 2016, which features numerous provisions designed to increase the reliability of the power system and which has a bearing on the role played by transmission system operators. RTE will ensure that it sheds light on the political issues which underlie the technical provisions put forward and that appropriate measures are adopted for reaching the objectives associated with the energy transition

  1. System Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Tae Jin

    2005-02-01

    This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.

  2. Validation of an online risk calculator for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colon cancer surgery and preliminary exploration of artificial intelligence-based analytics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammour, T; Cohen, L; Karunatillake, A I; Lewis, M; Lawrence, M J; Hunter, A; Moore, J W; Thomas, M L

    2017-11-01

    Recently published data support the use of a web-based risk calculator ( www.anastomoticleak.com ) for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colectomy. The aim of this study was to externally validate this calculator on a larger dataset. Consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency colectomy for colon cancer at a single institution over a 9-year period were identified using the Binational Colorectal Cancer Audit database. Patients with a rectosigmoid cancer, an R2 resection, or a diverting ostomy were excluded. The primary outcome was anastomotic leak within 90 days as defined by previously published criteria. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was derived and compared with that of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program ® (ACS NSQIP) calculator and the colon leakage score (CLS) calculator for left colectomy. Commercially available artificial intelligence-based analytics software was used to further interrogate the prediction algorithm. A total of 626 patients were identified. Four hundred and fifty-six patients met the inclusion criteria, and 402 had complete data available for all the calculator variables (126 had a left colectomy). Laparoscopic surgery was performed in 39.6% and emergency surgery in 14.7%. The anastomotic leak rate was 7.2%, with 31.0% requiring reoperation. The anastomoticleak.com calculator was significantly predictive of leak and performed better than the ACS NSQIP calculator (AUROC 0.73 vs 0.58) and the CLS calculator (AUROC 0.96 vs 0.80) for left colectomy. Artificial intelligence-predictive analysis supported these findings and identified an improved prediction model. The anastomotic leak risk calculator is significantly predictive of anastomotic leak after colon cancer resection. Wider investigation of artificial intelligence-based analytics for risk prediction is warranted.

  3. Reliability of Power Electronic Converter Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    -link capacitance in power electronic converter systems; wind turbine systems; smart control strategies for improved reliability of power electronics system; lifetime modelling; power module lifetime test and state monitoring; tools for performance and reliability analysis of power electronics systems; fault...... for advancing the reliability, availability, system robustness, and maintainability of PECS at different levels of complexity. Drawing on the experience of an international team of experts, this book explores the reliability of PECS covering topics including an introduction to reliability engineering in power...... electronic converter systems; anomaly detection and remaining-life prediction for power electronics; reliability of DC-link capacitors in power electronic converters; reliability of power electronics packaging; modeling for life-time prediction of power semiconductor modules; minimization of DC...

  4. Human reliability in complex systems: an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.

    1976-07-01

    A detailed analysis is presented of the main conceptual background underlying the areas of human reliability and human error. The concept of error is examined and generalized to that of human reliability, and some of the practical and methodological difficulties of reconciling the different standpoints of the human factors specialist and the engineer discussed. Following a survey of general reviews available on human reliability, quantitative techniques for prediction of human reliability are considered. An in-depth critical analysis of the various quantitative methods is then presented, together with the data bank requirements for human reliability prediction. Reliability considerations in process control and nuclear plant, and also areas of design, maintenance, testing and emergency situations are discussed. The effects of stress on human reliability are analysed and methods of minimizing these effects discussed. Finally, a summary is presented and proposals for further research are set out. (author)

  5. Reliability analysis of shutdown system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, C. Senthil; John Arul, A.; Pal Singh, Om; Suryaprakasa Rao, K.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of Shutdown System (SDS) of Indian Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Reliability analysis carried out using Fault Tree Analysis predicts a value of 3.5 x 10 -8 /de for failure of shutdown function in case of global faults and 4.4 x 10 -8 /de for local faults. Based on 20 de/y, the frequency of shutdown function failure is 0.7 x 10 -6 /ry, which meets the reliability target, set by the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board. The reliability is limited by Common Cause Failure (CCF) of actuation part of SDS and to a lesser extent CCF of electronic components. The failure frequency of individual systems is -3 /ry, which also meets the safety criteria. Uncertainty analysis indicates a maximum error factor of 5 for the top event unavailability

  6. Steam generator reliability improvement project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blomgren, J.C.; Green, S.J.

    1987-01-01

    Upon successful completion of its research and development technology transfer program, the Electric Power Research Institute's Steam Generator Owners Group (SGOG II) will disband in December 1986 and be replaced in January 1987 by a successor project, the Steam Generator Reliability Project (SGRP). The new project, funded in the EPRI base program, will continue the emphasis on reliability and life extension that was carried forward by SGOG II. The objectives of SGOG II have been met. Causes and remedies have been identified for tubing corrosion problems, such as stress corrosion cracking and pitting, and steam generator technology has been improved in areas such as tube wear prediction and nondestructive evaluation (NDE). These actions have led to improved reliability of steam generators. Now the owners want to continue with a centrally managed program that builds on what has been learned. The goal is to continue to improve steam generator reliability and solve small problems before they become large problems

  7. Steam generator reliability improvement project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blomgren, J.C.; Green, S.J.

    1987-01-01

    Upon successful completion of its research and development technology transfer program, the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI's) Steam Generator Owners Group (SGOG II) will disband in December 1986, and be replaced in January 1987, by a successor project, the Steam Generator Reliability Project (SGRP). The new project, funded in the EPRI base program, will continue to emphasize reliability and life extension, which were carried forward by SGOG II. The objectives of SGOG II have been met. Causes and remedies have been identified for tubing corrosion problems such as stress corrosion cracking and pitting, and steam generator technology has been improved in areas such as tube wear prediction and nondestructive evaluation. These actions have led to improved reliability of steam generators. Now the owners want to continue with a centrally managed program that builds on what has been learned. The goal is to continue to improve steam generator reliability and to solve small problems before they become large problems

  8. Forecasting reliability of transformer populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.; Wetzer, J.; Wouters, P.A.A.F.

    2007-01-01

    The expected replacement wave in the current power grid faces asset managers with challenging questions. Setting up a replacement strategy and planning calls for a forecast of the long term component reliability. For transformers the future failure probability can be predicted based on the ongoing

  9. Increasing discomfort tolerance predicts incentive senitization of exercise reinforcement: Preliminary results from a randomized controlled intervention to increase the reinforcing value of exercise in overweight to obese adu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Objective: The reinforcing (motivating) value of exercise/physical activity (RRVex) predicts usual exercise behavior and meeting of physical activity guidelines. Recent cross-sectional evidence suggests, for the first time, that greater tolerance for the discomfort experienced during exercise is ass...

  10. DynaMIT2.0: architecture design and preliminary results on real-time data fusion for traffic prediction and crisis management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Yang; Pereira, Francisco Camara; Seshadri, Ravi

    2015-01-01

    The ability to monitor and predict in real-time the state of the transportation network is a valuable tool for both transportation administrators and travellers. While many solutions exist for this task, they are generally much more successful in recurrent scenarios than in non-recurrent ones...

  11. Quantitative software-reliability analysis of computer codes relevant to nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.J.

    1981-12-01

    This report presents the results of the first year of an ongoing research program to determine the probability of failure characteristics of computer codes relevant to nuclear safety. An introduction to both qualitative and quantitative aspects of nuclear software is given. A mathematical framework is presented which will enable the a priori prediction of the probability of failure characteristics of a code given the proper specification of its properties. The framework consists of four parts: (1) a classification system for software errors and code failures; (2) probabilistic modeling for selected reliability characteristics; (3) multivariate regression analyses to establish predictive relationships among reliability characteristics and generic code property and development parameters; and (4) the associated information base. Preliminary data of the type needed to support the modeling and the predictions of this program are described. Illustrations of the use of the modeling are given but the results so obtained, as well as all results of code failure probabilities presented herein, are based on data which at this point are preliminary, incomplete, and possibly non-representative of codes relevant to nuclear safety

  12. Preliminary Empirical Models for Predicting Shrinkage, Part Geometry and Metallurgical Aspects of Ti-6Al-4V Shaped Metal Deposition Builds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar-Palafox, Gustavo; Gault, Rosemary; Ridgway, Keith

    2011-12-01

    Shaped Metal Deposition (SMD) is an additive manufacturing process which creates parts layer by layer by weld depositions. In this work, empirical models that predict part geometry (wall thickness and outer diameter) and some metallurgical aspects (i.e. surface texture, portion of finer Widmanstätten microstructure) for the SMD process were developed. The models are based on an orthogonal fractional factorial design of experiments with four factors at two levels. The factors considered were energy level (a relationship between heat source power and the rate of raw material input.), step size, programmed diameter and travel speed. The models were validated using previous builds; the prediction error for part geometry was under 11%. Several relationships between the factors and responses were identified. Current had a significant effect on wall thickness; thickness increases with increasing current. Programmed diameter had a significant effect on percentage of shrinkage; this decreased with increasing component size. Surface finish decreased with decreasing step size and current.

  13. Preliminary Empirical Models for Predicting Shrinkage, Part Geometry and Metallurgical Aspects of Ti-6Al-4V Shaped Metal Deposition Builds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escobar-Palafox, Gustavo; Gault, Rosemary; Ridgway, Keith

    2011-01-01

    Shaped Metal Deposition (SMD) is an additive manufacturing process which creates parts layer by layer by weld depositions. In this work, empirical models that predict part geometry (wall thickness and outer diameter) and some metallurgical aspects (i.e. surface texture, portion of finer Widmanstätten microstructure) for the SMD process were developed. The models are based on an orthogonal fractional factorial design of experiments with four factors at two levels. The factors considered were energy level (a relationship between heat source power and the rate of raw material input.), step size, programmed diameter and travel speed. The models were validated using previous builds; the prediction error for part geometry was under 11%. Several relationships between the factors and responses were identified. Current had a significant effect on wall thickness; thickness increases with increasing current. Programmed diameter had a significant effect on percentage of shrinkage; this decreased with increasing component size. Surface finish decreased with decreasing step size and current.

  14. Machine learning to predict the occurrence of bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw associated with dental extraction: A preliminary report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong Wook; Kim, Hwiyoung; Nam, Woong; Kim, Hyung Jun; Cha, In-Ho

    2018-04-23

    The aim of this study was to build and validate five types of machine learning models that can predict the occurrence of BRONJ associated with dental extraction in patients taking bisphosphonates for the management of osteoporosis. A retrospective review of the medical records was conducted to obtain cases and controls for the study. Total 125 patients consisting of 41 cases and 84 controls were selected for the study. Five machine learning prediction algorithms including multivariable logistic regression model, decision tree, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and random forest were implemented. The outputs of these models were compared with each other and also with conventional methods, such as serum CTX level. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to compare the results. The performance of machine learning models was significantly superior to conventional statistical methods and single predictors. The random forest model yielded the best performance (AUC = 0.973), followed by artificial neural network (AUC = 0.915), support vector machine (AUC = 0.882), logistic regression (AUC = 0.844), decision tree (AUC = 0.821), drug holiday alone (AUC = 0.810), and CTX level alone (AUC = 0.630). Machine learning methods showed superior performance in predicting BRONJ associated with dental extraction compared to conventional statistical methods using drug holiday and serum CTX level. Machine learning can thus be applied in a wide range of clinical studies. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. AMSAA Reliability Growth Guide

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Broemm, William

    2000-01-01

    ... has developed reliability growth methodology for all phases of the process, from planning to tracking to projection. The report presents this methodology and associated reliability growth concepts.

  16. The value of gadoxetate disodium-enhanced MR imaging for predicting posthepatectomy liver failure after major hepatic resection: A preliminary study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Seung Hyun, E-mail: shcho2405@gmail.com [Department of Radiology, Daegu Fatima Hospital, 576-31 Sinam-dong, Dong-gu, Daegu 701-600 (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ung Rae, E-mail: tadtail@hanmail.net [Department of Radiology, Catholic University of Daegu, School of Medicine, 3056-6 Daemyung-4-dong, Nam-gu, Daegu 705-718 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Joo Dong, E-mail: milledr@naver.com [Department of Surgery, Catholic University of Daegu, School of Medicine, 3056-6 Daemyung-4-dong, Nam-gu, Daegu 705-718 (Korea, Republic of); Han, Young Seok, E-mail: gshyskhk@hanmail.net [Department of Surgery, Catholic University of Daegu, School of Medicine, 3056-6 Daemyung-4-dong, Nam-gu, Daegu 705-718 (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Dong Lak, E-mail: dnchoi@cu.ac.kr [Department of Surgery, Catholic University of Daegu, School of Medicine, 3056-6 Daemyung-4-dong, Nam-gu, Daegu 705-718 (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To investigate whether preoperative gadoxetate-disodium-enhanced MR imaging predicts posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in patients who underwent major hepatic resection. Materials and methods: Twenty nine patients who underwent preoperative gadoxetate-disodium-enhanced MR imaging and following major hepatic resection were enrolled. Hepatic parenchymal signal intensity (SI) on pre-contrast T1-weighted imaging and 20 min hepatocyte phase was measured at each of the four liver segments by two observers using region of interest measurements. The mean value was calculated and used at each phase. The relative contrast enhancement index (RCEI) was calculated: (20 min hepatocyte phase SI - pre-contrast SI)/pre-contrast SI. PHLF was determined by the International Study Group of Liver Surgery 2011 guidelines. Correlation analysis was performed between preoperative liver function test and RCEI. Diagnostic accuracy of RCEI for predicting PHLF was calculated with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The reproducibility of the RCEI measurement was evaluated. Results: There was a significant correlation between preoperative albumin (r = 0.496, P = 0.006), T-bilirubin (r = -0.383, P = 0.041), and RCEI. Seven patients (24%) experienced PHLF, and one of these patients (3%) died. The diagnostic accuracy of RCEI was 0.838 (sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 77.3%, cut-off value: 0.7508, 95% confidence interval: 0.654, 0.947). The 95% limits of agreement and ICC between repeated RCEI measurements were 18.4% of the mean and 0.94, respectively, and between RCEI measurements by the two observers were 21.7% and 0.929, respectively. Conclusion: Our results show that preoperative gadoxetate-disodium-enhanced MR imaging can predict PHLF in patients who underwent major hepatic resection.

  17. A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

    1986-01-01

    The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

  18. PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

  19. Investigation of low glass transition temperature on COTS PEMs reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandor, M.; Agarwal, S.

    2002-01-01

    Many factors influence PEM component reliability.One of the factors that can affect PEM performance and reliability is the glass transition temperature (Tg) and the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of the encapsulant or underfill. JPL/NASA is investigating how the Tg and CTE for PEMs affect device reliability under different temperature and aging conditions. Other issues with Tg are also being investigated. Some preliminary data will be presented on glass transition temperature test results conducted at JPL.

  20. Reliability of early radiographic evaluations for canine hip dysplasia obtained from the standard ventrodorsal radiographic projection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corley, E.A.; Keller, G.G.; Lattimer, J.C.; Ellersieck, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    To determine reliability of preliminary evaluations for canine hip dysplasia (CHD) performed by the Orthopedic Foundation for Animals on dogs between 3 and 18 months of age. Retrospective analysis of data from the Orthopedic Foundation for Animals database. 2,332 Golden Retrievers, Labrador Retrievers, German Shepherd Dogs, and Rottweilers for which preliminary evaluation had been performed between 3 and 18 months of age and for which results of a definitive evaluation performed after 24 months of age were available. Each radiograph was evaluated, and hip joint status was graded as excellent, good, fair, or borderline phenotype or mild, moderate, or severe dysplasia. Preliminary evaluations were performed by 1 radiologist; definitive evaluations were the consensus of 3 radiologists. Reliability of preliminary evaluations was calculated as the percentage of definitive evaluations (normal vs dysplastic) that were unchanged from preliminary evaluations. Reliability of a preliminary evaluation of normal hip joint phenotype decreased significantly as the preliminary evaluation changed from excellent (100%) to good (97.9%) to fair (76.9%) phenotype. Reliability of a preliminary evaluation of CHD increased significantly as the preliminary evaluation changed from mild (84.4%) to moderate (97.4%) CHD. Reliability of preliminary evaluations increased significantly as age at the time of preliminary evaluation increased, regardless of whether dogs received a preliminary evaluation of normal phenotype or CHD. Results suggest that preliminary evaluations of hip joint status in dogs are generally reliable. However, dogs that receive a preliminary evaluation of fair phenotype of mild CHD should be reevaluated after 24 months of age

  1. Incorporating drug delivery into an imaging-driven, mechanics-coupled reaction diffusion model for predicting the response of breast cancer to neoadjuvant chemotherapy: theory and preliminary clinical results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrett, Angela M.; Hormuth, David A.; Barnes, Stephanie L.; Feng, Xinzeng; Huang, Wei; Yankeelov, Thomas E.

    2018-05-01

    Clinical methods for assessing tumor response to therapy are largely rudimentary, monitoring only temporal changes in tumor size. Our goal is to predict the response of breast tumors to therapy using a mathematical model that utilizes magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data obtained non-invasively from individual patients. We extended a previously established, mechanically coupled, reaction-diffusion model for predicting tumor response initialized with patient-specific diffusion weighted MRI (DW-MRI) data by including the effects of chemotherapy drug delivery, which is estimated using dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE-) MRI data. The extended, drug incorporated, model is initialized using patient-specific DW-MRI and DCE-MRI data. Data sets from five breast cancer patients were used—obtained before, after one cycle, and at mid-point of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The DCE-MRI data was used to estimate spatiotemporal variations in tumor perfusion with the extended Kety–Tofts model. The physiological parameters derived from DCE-MRI were used to model changes in delivery of therapy drugs within the tumor for incorporation in the extended model. We simulated the original model and the extended model in both 2D and 3D and compare the results for this five-patient cohort. Preliminary results show reductions in the error of model predicted tumor cellularity and size compared to the experimentally-measured results for the third MRI scan when therapy was incorporated. Comparing the two models for agreement between the predicted total cellularity and the calculated total cellularity (from the DW-MRI data) reveals an increased concordance correlation coefficient from 0.81 to 0.98 for the 2D analysis and 0.85 to 0.99 for the 3D analysis (p  <  0.01 for each) when the extended model was used in place of the original model. This study demonstrates the plausibility of using DCE-MRI data as a means to estimate drug delivery on a patient-specific basis in predictive models and

  2. Preliminary evaluation of the importance of existing hydraulic-head observation locations to advective-transport predictions, Death Valley regional flow system, California and Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, M.C.; Ely, D.M.; Tiedeman, C.R.; O'Brien, G.M.; D'Agnese, F.A.; Faunt, C.C.

    2001-01-01

    When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic statistics and measures of uncertainty provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This report presents a method of ranking the likely importance of existing observation locations using measures of prediction uncertainty. It is suggested that continued monitoring is warranted at more important locations, and unwarranted or less warranted at less important locations. The report develops the methodology and then demonstrates it using the hydraulic-head observation locations of a three-layer model of the Death Valley regional flow system (DVRFS). The predictions of interest are subsurface transport from beneath Yucca Mountain and 14 underground Test Area (UGTA) sites. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the regional-scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its ADVective-Travel Observation (ADV) Package, and an additional computer program developed for this work

  3. Prediction of chemotherapy response in untreated malignant lymphomas using technetium-99m methoxyisobutylisonitrile scan. Comparison with P-glycoprotein expression and other prognostic factors. A preliminary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Ji-An; Yang, Shih-Neng; Lin, Fang-Jen; Kao, Albert; Lee, Cheng-Chun; Shiau, Yu-Chien

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to predict chemotherapy response in untreated malignant lymphomas using technetium-99m methoxyisobutylisonitrile (Tc-MIBI) scan. Twenty-five patients with malignant lymphoma were studied before receiving chemotherapy. Early Tc-MIBI scan was performed 10 min after intravenous injection of Tc-MIBI. Immunohistochemical analyses were performed on multiple non-consecutive sections of the biopsy specimens to determine Pgp expression. Chemotherapy response was evaluated in the first 1-2 years after completion of treatment by clinical and radiological methods. The mean tumor-to-background ratio of the 15 patients with good response (3.3±0.6) was significantly higher than that of the 10 patients with poor response (1.2±0.1). Among the 15 patients with good response to chemotherapy, all had positive Tc-MIBI scan results but negative Pgp expression. Among the 10 patients who had poor response to chemotherapy, all 10 had negative Tc-MIBI scan, but six patients had positive Pgp expression and four had negative Pgp expression. Significant differences were found in the incidences of good and poor responses determined by Tc-MIBI scan and Pgp expression. However, there were no significant differences in the incidences of good and poor responses for other prognostic factors. Compared with other prognostic factors, early Tc-MIBI scan more accurately predicts chemotherapy response in patients with malignant lymphoma. (author)

  4. Multitasking capacities in persons diagnosed with schizophrenia: a preliminary examination of their neurocognitive underpinnings and ability to predict real world functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laloyaux, Julien; Van der Linden, Martial; Levaux, Marie-Noëlle; Mourad, Haitham; Pirri, Anthony; Bertrand, Hervé; Domken, Marc-André; Adam, Stéphane; Larøi, Frank

    2014-07-30

    Difficulties in everyday life activities are core features of persons diagnosed with schizophrenia and in particular during multitasking activities. However, at present, patients׳ multitasking capacities have not been adequately examined in the literature due to the absence of suitable assessment strategies. We thus recently developed a computerized real-life activity task designed to take into account the complex and multitasking nature of certain everyday life activities where participants are required to prepare a room for a meeting. Twenty-one individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia and 20 matched healthy controls completed the computerized task. Patients were also evaluated with a cognitive battery, measures of symptomatology and real world functioning. To examine the ecological validity, 14 other patients were recruited and were given the computerized version and a real version of the meeting preparation task. Results showed that performance on the computerized task was significantly correlated with executive functioning, pointing to the major implication of these cognitive processes in multitasking situations. Performance on the computerized task also significantly predicted up to 50% of real world functioning. Moreover, the computerized task demonstrated good ecological validity. These findings suggest the importance of evaluating multitasking capacities in patients diagnosed with schizophrenia in order to predict real world functioning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Reliability in the design phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siahpush, A.S.; Hills, S.W.; Pham, H.; Majumdar, D.

    1991-12-01

    A study was performed to determine the common methods and tools that are available to calculated or predict a system's reliability. A literature review and software survey are included. The desired product of this developmental work is a tool for the system designer to use in the early design phase so that the final design will achieve the desired system reliability without lengthy testing and rework. Three computer programs were written which provide the first attempt at fulfilling this need. The programs are described and a case study is presented for each one. This is a continuing effort which will be furthered in FY-1992. 10 refs

  6. Renal Resistance Trend During Hypothermic Machine Perfusion Is More Predictive of Postoperative Outcome Than Biopsy Score: Preliminary Experience in 35 Consecutive Kidney Transplantations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissolati, Massimiliano; Gazzetta, Paolo Giovanni; Caldara, Rossana; Guarneri, Giovanni; Adamenko, Olga; Giannone, Fabio; Mazza, Michele; Maggi, Giulia; Tomanin, Deborah; Rosati, Riccardo; Secchi, Antonio; Socci, Carlo

    2018-03-30

    Hypothermic machine perfusion (HPM) grants a better postoperative outcome in transplantation of organs procured from extended criteria donors (ECDs) and donors after cardiac death (DCD). So far, the only available parameter for outcome prediction concerning those organs is pretransplant biopsy score. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether renal resistance (RR) trend during HPM may be used as a predictive marker for post-transplantation outcome. From December 2015 to present, HMP has been systematically applied to all organs from ECDs and DCD. All grafts underwent pretransplantation biopsy evaluation using Karpinski's histological score. Only organs that reached RR value ≤1.0 within 3 hours of perfusion were transplanted. Single kidney transplantation (SKT) or double kidney transplantation (DKT) were performed according to biopsy score results. Sixty-five HMPs were performed (58 from ECDs and 7 from DCD/ECMO donors). Fifteen kidneys were insufficiently reconditioned (RR > 1) and were therefore discarded. Forty-nine kidneys were transplanted, divided between 21 SKT and 14 DKT. Overall primary nonfunction (PNF) and delayed graft function (DGF) rate were 2.9 and 17.1%, respectively. DGF were more common in kidneys from DCD (67 vs. 7%; P = 0.004). Biopsy score did not correlate with PNF/DGF rate (P = 0.870) and postoperative creatinine trend (P = 0.796). Recipients of kidneys that reached RR ≤ 1.0 within 1 hour of HMP had a lower PNF/DGF rate (11 vs. 44%; P = 0.033) and faster serum creatinine decrease (POD10 creatinine: 1.79 mg/dL vs. 4.33 mg/dL; P = 0.019). RR trend is more predictive of post-transplantation outcome than biopsy score. Hence, RR trend should be taken into account in the pretransplantation evaluation of the organs. © 2018 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Operational reliability management; Gestao da confiabilidade operacional

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bressan, Edemir [Refinaria Alberto Pasqualini (REFAP), Canoas, RS (Brazil). Setor de Tecnologia de Equipamentos

    2000-07-01

    It is described the PETROBRAS Alberto Pasqualini Refinery process plant reliability management, strategies, maintenance organizational structure, management processes, predictive and preventive maintenance, condition monitoring techniques, reliability metrics, pointing out a need for close work relationship between production, maintenance and project engineering functions with highly qualified and committed proper teams, in order to reach one of the highest mechanical availability among Latin America refineries. (author)

  8. Predictive value of early {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT studies for treatment response evaluation to ipilimumab in metastatic melanoma: preliminary results of an ongoing study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sachpekidis, Christos; Pan, Leyun; Dimitrakopoulou-Strauss, Antonia [German Cancer Research Center, Clinical Cooperation Unit Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); Larribere, Lionel [German Cancer Research Center, Clinical Cooperation Unit Dermato-Oncology, Heidelberg (Germany); Haberkorn, Uwe [German Cancer Research Center, Clinical Cooperation Unit Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); University of Heidelberg, Division of Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); Hassel, Jessica C. [University Hospital Heidelberg, Skin Cancer Center, Department of Dermatology, Heidelberg (Germany); National Center for Tumor Diseases Heidelberg, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2014-10-31

    Ipilimumab is a newly approved immunotherapeutic agent that has been shown to provide a survival benefit in patients with metastatic melanoma. {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT has demonstrated very satisfying results in detecting melanoma metastases in general. Using {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT we monitored patients with metastatic melanoma undergoing ipilimumab therapy during the course of treatment. The aim of our study was to evaluate the role of {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT performed after two cycles of ipilimumab in predicting the final response to therapy. In 22 patients suffering from unresectable metastatic melanoma, scheduled for ipilimumab treatment PET/CT scanning was performed before the start of treatment (baseline scan), after two cycles of treatment (early response) and at the end of treatment after four cycles (late response). Evaluation of the patient response to treatment on PET was based on the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer 1999 criteria. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) data are presented. After the end of treatment, 15 patients were characterized as having progressive metabolic disease (PMD) and five as having stable metabolic disease (SMD), and two patients showed a partial metabolic response (PMR). Early PET/CT performed after two ipilimumab cycles predicted treatment response in 13 of the 15 PMD patients, in five of the five SMD patients and in neither of the two PMR patients. Both patients with PMR showed pseudoprogression after the second cycle and were therefore wrongly classified. According to the patients' clinical outcome, patients with late PMD had a median PFS of 3.6 months (mean 5.6 months), while patients with late SMD had a median PFS of 9.8 months (mean 9.0 months). In comparison, patients with early PMD had a median PFS of 2.7 months (mean 5.5 months) and patients with early SMD had a median PFS of 6.3 months (mean 7.5 months). The difference in PFS between the two groups was statistically

  9. Reliability Characteristics of Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbynek Martinek

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the phenomenon of reliability of power plants. It gives an explanation of the terms connected with this topic as their proper understanding is important for understanding the relations and equations which model the possible real situations. The reliability phenomenon is analysed using both the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution. The results of our analysis are specific equations giving information about the characteristics of the power plants, the mean time of operations and the probability of failure-free operation. Equations solved for the Weibull distribution respect the failures as well as the actual operating hours. Thanks to our results, we are able to create a model of dynamic reliability for prediction of future states. It can be useful for improving the current situation of the unit as well as for creating the optimal plan of maintenance and thus have an impact on the overall economics of the operation of these power plants.

  10. Reliability data banks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannon, A.G.; Bendell, A.

    1991-01-01

    Following an introductory chapter on Reliability, what is it, why it is needed, how it is achieved and measured, the principles of reliability data bases and analysis methodologies are the subject of the next two chapters. Achievements due to the development of data banks are mentioned for different industries in the next chapter, FACTS, a comprehensive information system for industrial safety and reliability data collection in process plants are covered next. CREDO, the Central Reliability Data Organization is described in the next chapter and is indexed separately, as is the chapter on DANTE, the fabrication reliability Data analysis system. Reliability data banks at Electricite de France and IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base are also separately indexed. The European reliability data system, ERDS, and the development of a large data bank come next. The last three chapters look at 'Reliability data banks, - friend foe or a waste of time'? and future developments. (UK)

  11. Suncor maintenance and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, S. [Suncor Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Fleet maintenance and reliability at Suncor Energy was discussed in this presentation, with reference to Suncor Energy's primary and support equipment fleets. This paper also discussed Suncor Energy's maintenance and reliability standard involving people, processes and technology. An organizational maturity chart that graphed organizational learning against organizational performance was illustrated. The presentation also reviewed the maintenance and reliability framework; maintenance reliability model; the process overview of the maintenance and reliability standard; a process flow chart of maintenance strategies and programs; and an asset reliability improvement process flow chart. An example of an improvement initiative was included, with reference to a shovel reliability review; a dipper trip reliability investigation; bucket related failures by type and frequency; root cause analysis of the reliability process; and additional actions taken. Last, the presentation provided a graph of the results of the improvement initiative and presented the key lessons learned. tabs., figs.

  12. Preliminary tests of the electrostatic plasma accelerator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aston, G.; Acker, T.

    1990-01-01

    This report describes the results of a program to verify an electrostatic plasma acceleration concept and to identify those parameters most important in optimizing an Electrostatic Plasma Accelerator (EPA) thruster based upon this thrust mechanism. Preliminary performance measurements of thrust, specific impulse and efficiency were obtained using a unique plasma exhaust momentum probe. Reliable EPA thruster operation was achieved using one power supply.

  13. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  14. The Accelerator Reliability Forum

    CERN Document Server

    Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R

    2014-01-01

    A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.

  15. Balance index score as a predictive factor for lower sports results or anterior cruciate ligament knee injuries in Croatian female athletes--preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrbanić, Tea Schnurrer-Luke; Ravlić-Gulan, Jagoda; Gulan, Gordan; Matovinović, Damir

    2007-03-01

    and lesser sports motivation, anterior cruciate ligament injury and the ultimate decision to withdraw from active participation in sports. If the balance testing results prove to be effective in predicting the occurrence of ligament injuries during future sports activities, we suggest that prophylactic training programs be introduced during athlete training, since the prevention of an initial injury will be more effective than prevention of injury recurrence.

  16. Human Reliability Program Overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bodin, Michael

    2012-09-25

    This presentation covers the high points of the Human Reliability Program, including certification/decertification, critical positions, due process, organizational structure, program components, personnel security, an overview of the US DOE reliability program, retirees and academia, and security program integration.

  17. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  18. Reliability of software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopetz, H.

    1980-01-01

    Common factors and differences in the reliability of hardware and software; reliability increase by means of methods of software redundancy. Maintenance of software for long term operating behavior. (HP) [de

  19. Reliability criteria selection for integrated resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiu, D.; Ye, C.; Billinton, R.; Lakhanpal, D.

    1993-01-01

    A study was conducted on the selection of a generating system reliability criterion that ensures a reasonable continuity of supply while minimizing the total costs to utility customers. The study was conducted using the Institute for Electronic and Electrical Engineers (IEEE) reliability test system as the study system. The study inputs and results for conditions and load forecast data, new supply resources data, demand-side management resource data, resource planning criterion, criterion value selection, supply side development, integrated resource development, and best criterion values, are tabulated and discussed. Preliminary conclusions are drawn as follows. In the case of integrated resource planning, the selection of the best value for a given type of reliability criterion can be done using methods similar to those used for supply side planning. The reliability criteria values previously used for supply side planning may not be economically justified when integrated resource planning is used. Utilities may have to revise and adopt new, and perhaps lower supply reliability criteria for integrated resource planning. More complex reliability criteria, such as energy related indices, which take into account the magnitude, frequency and duration of the expected interruptions are better adapted than the simpler capacity-based reliability criteria such as loss of load expectation. 7 refs., 5 figs., 10 tabs

  20. Reliable Design Versus Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth A.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation focuses on reliability and trust for the users portion of the FPGA design flow. It is assumed that the manufacturer prior to hand-off to the user tests FPGA internal components. The objective is to present the challenges of creating reliable and trusted designs. The following will be addressed: What makes a design vulnerable to functional flaws (reliability) or attackers (trust)? What are the challenges for verifying a reliable design versus a trusted design?

  1. Principles of Bridge Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Nowak, Andrzej S.

    The paper gives a brief introduction to the basic principles of structural reliability theory and its application to bridge engineering. Fundamental concepts like failure probability and reliability index are introduced. Ultimate as well as serviceability limit states for bridges are formulated......, and as an example the reliability profile and a sensitivity analyses for a corroded reinforced concrete bridge is shown....

  2. Reliability in engineering '87

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuma, M.

    1987-01-01

    The participants heard 51 papers dealing with the reliability of engineering products. Two of the papers were incorporated in INIS, namely ''Reliability comparison of two designs of low pressure regeneration of the 1000 MW unit at the Temelin nuclear power plant'' and ''Use of probability analysis of reliability in designing nuclear power facilities.''(J.B.)

  3. Design for Reliability of Power Electronic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2012-01-01

    Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible processing of electric power in the application of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, adjustable-speed drives, etc. More and more efforts are devoted to better power electronic systems in terms of reliability to ensure high......). A collection of methodologies based on Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile analysis are presented in this paper to perform reliability-oriented design of power electronic systems. The corresponding design procedures and reliability prediction models are provided. Further on, a case study...... on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical components IGBTs. Different aspects of improving the reliability of the power converter are mapped. Finally, the challenges and opportunities to achieve more reliable power electronic systems are addressed....

  4. Reliability and validity in a nutshell.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannigan, Katrina; Watson, Roger

    2009-12-01

    To explore and explain the different concepts of reliability and validity as they are related to measurement instruments in social science and health care. There are different concepts contained in the terms reliability and validity and these are often explained poorly and there is often confusion between them. To develop some clarity about reliability and validity a conceptual framework was built based on the existing literature. The concepts of reliability, validity and utility are explored and explained. Reliability contains the concepts of internal consistency and stability and equivalence. Validity contains the concepts of content, face, criterion, concurrent, predictive, construct, convergent (and divergent), factorial and discriminant. In addition, for clinical practice and research, it is essential to establish the utility of a measurement instrument. To use measurement instruments appropriately in clinical practice, the extent to which they are reliable, valid and usable must be established.

  5. Reliable computer systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wear, L L; Pinkert, J R

    1993-11-01

    In this article, we looked at some decisions that apply to the design of reliable computer systems. We began with a discussion of several terms such as testability, then described some systems that call for highly reliable hardware and software. The article concluded with a discussion of methods that can be used to achieve higher reliability in computer systems. Reliability and fault tolerance in computers probably will continue to grow in importance. As more and more systems are computerized, people will want assurances about the reliability of these systems, and their ability to work properly even when sub-systems fail.

  6. Human factor reliability program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knoblochova, L.

    2017-01-01

    The human factor's reliability program was at Slovenske elektrarne, a.s. (SE) nuclear power plants. introduced as one of the components Initiatives of Excellent Performance in 2011. The initiative's goal was to increase the reliability of both people and facilities, in response to 3 major areas of improvement - Need for improvement of the results, Troubleshooting support, Supporting the achievement of the company's goals. The human agent's reliability program is in practice included: - Tools to prevent human error; - Managerial observation and coaching; - Human factor analysis; -Quick information about the event with a human agent; -Human reliability timeline and performance indicators; - Basic, periodic and extraordinary training in human factor reliability(authors)

  7. Equipment Reliability Program in NPP Krsko

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skaler, F.; Djetelic, N.

    2006-01-01

    Operation that is safe, reliable, effective and acceptable to public is the common message in a mission statement of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To fulfill these goals, nuclear industry, among other areas, has to focus on: 1 Human Performance (HU) and 2 Equipment Reliability (EQ). The performance objective of HU is as follows: The behaviors of all personnel result in safe and reliable station operation. While unwanted human behaviors in operations mostly result directly in the event, the behavior flaws either in the area of maintenance or engineering usually cause decreased equipment reliability. Unsatisfied Human performance leads even the best designed power plants into significant operating events, which can be found as well-known examples in nuclear industry. Equipment reliability is today recognized as the key to success. While the human performance at most NPPs has been improving since the start of WANO / INPO / IAEA evaluations, the open energy market has forced the nuclear plants to reduce production costs and operate more reliably and effectively. The balance between these two (opposite) goals has made equipment reliability even more important for safe, reliable and efficient production. Insisting on on-line operation by ignoring some principles of safety could nowadays in a well-developed safety culture and human performance environment exceed the cost of electricity losses. In last decade the leading USA nuclear companies put a lot of effort to improve equipment reliability primarily based on INPO Equipment Reliability Program AP-913 at their NPP stations. The Equipment Reliability Program is the key program not only for safe and reliable operation, but also for the Life Cycle Management and Aging Management on the way to the nuclear power plant life extension. The purpose of Equipment Reliability process is to identify, organize, integrate and coordinate equipment reliability activities (preventive and predictive maintenance, maintenance

  8. Preliminary Monthly Climatological Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Preliminary Local Climatological Data, recorded since 1970 on Weather Burean Form 1030 and then National Weather Service Form F-6. The preliminary climate data pages...

  9. Reliability and validity of the parent efficacy for child healthy weight behaviour (PECHWB) scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, F; Davis, M C

    2014-05-01

    Interventions for childhood overweight and obesity that target parents as the agents of change by increasing parent self-efficacy for facilitating their child's healthy weight behaviours require a reliable and valid tool to measure parent self-efficacy before and after interventions. Nelson and Davis developed the Parent Efficacy for Child Healthy Weight Behaviour (PECHWB) scale with good preliminary evidence of reliability and validity. The aim of this research was to provide further psychometric evidence from an independent Australian sample. Data were provided by a convenience sample of 261 primary caregivers of children aged 4-17 years via an online survey. PECHWB scores were correlated with scores on other self-report measures of parenting efficacy and 2- to 4-week test-retest reliability of the PECHWB was assessed. The results of the study confirmed the four-factor structure of the PECHWB (Fat and Sugar, Sedentary Behaviours, Physical Activity, and Fruit and Vegetables) and provided strong evidence of internal consistency and test-retest reliability, as well as good evidence of convergent validity. Future research should investigate the properties of the PECHWB in a sample of parents of overweight or obese children, including measures of child weight and actual child healthy weight behaviours to provide evidence of the concurrent and predictive validity of PECHWB scores. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Short communications A preliminary assessment of predictive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The high maintenance requirements of the breeding female contribute largely to this low efficiency (Dickerson, 1978). An improvement of both biological and economical effi- ciency therefore becomes increasingly important. The assessment of efficiency requires measurement of individual feed intake, which is unpractical ...

  11. Reliability and safety engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

    2016-01-01

    Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

  12. Human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougherty, E.M.; Fragola, J.R.

    1988-01-01

    The authors present a treatment of human reliability analysis incorporating an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power generating stations. They treat the subject according to the framework established for general systems theory. Draws upon reliability analysis, psychology, human factors engineering, and statistics, integrating elements of these fields within a systems framework. Provides a history of human reliability analysis, and includes examples of the application of the systems approach

  13. Reliability of electronic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roca, Jose L.

    2001-01-01

    Reliability techniques have been developed subsequently as a need of the diverse engineering disciplines, nevertheless they are not few those that think they have been work a lot on reliability before the same word was used in the current context. Military, space and nuclear industries were the first ones that have been involved in this topic, however not only in these environments it is that it has been carried out this small great revolution in benefit of the increase of the reliability figures of the products of those industries, but rather it has extended to the whole industry. The fact of the massive production, characteristic of the current industries, drove four decades ago, to the fall of the reliability of its products, on one hand, because the massively itself and, for other, to the recently discovered and even not stabilized industrial techniques. Industry should be changed according to those two new requirements, creating products of medium complexity and assuring an enough reliability appropriated to production costs and controls. Reliability began to be integral part of the manufactured product. Facing this philosophy, the book describes reliability techniques applied to electronics systems and provides a coherent and rigorous framework for these diverse activities providing a unifying scientific basis for the entire subject. It consists of eight chapters plus a lot of statistical tables and an extensive annotated bibliography. Chapters embrace the following topics: 1- Introduction to Reliability; 2- Basic Mathematical Concepts; 3- Catastrophic Failure Models; 4-Parametric Failure Models; 5- Systems Reliability; 6- Reliability in Design and Project; 7- Reliability Tests; 8- Software Reliability. This book is in Spanish language and has a potentially diverse audience as a text book from academic to industrial courses. (author)

  14. A PRELIMINARY JUPITER MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubbard, W. B.; Militzer, B.

    2016-01-01

    In anticipation of new observational results for Jupiter's axial moment of inertia and gravitational zonal harmonic coefficients from the forthcoming Juno orbiter, we present a number of preliminary Jupiter interior models. We combine results from ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen–helium mixtures, including immiscibility calculations, with a new nonperturbative calculation of Jupiter's zonal harmonic coefficients, to derive a self-consistent model for the planet's external gravity and moment of inertia. We assume helium rain modified the interior temperature and composition profiles. Our calculation predicts zonal harmonic values to which measurements can be compared. Although some models fit the observed (pre-Juno) second- and fourth-order zonal harmonics to within their error bars, our preferred reference model predicts a fourth-order zonal harmonic whose absolute value lies above the pre-Juno error bars. This model has a dense core of about 12 Earth masses and a hydrogen–helium-rich envelope with approximately three times solar metallicity

  15. A PRELIMINARY JUPITER MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubbard, W. B. [Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Militzer, B. [Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2016-03-20

    In anticipation of new observational results for Jupiter's axial moment of inertia and gravitational zonal harmonic coefficients from the forthcoming Juno orbiter, we present a number of preliminary Jupiter interior models. We combine results from ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen–helium mixtures, including immiscibility calculations, with a new nonperturbative calculation of Jupiter's zonal harmonic coefficients, to derive a self-consistent model for the planet's external gravity and moment of inertia. We assume helium rain modified the interior temperature and composition profiles. Our calculation predicts zonal harmonic values to which measurements can be compared. Although some models fit the observed (pre-Juno) second- and fourth-order zonal harmonics to within their error bars, our preferred reference model predicts a fourth-order zonal harmonic whose absolute value lies above the pre-Juno error bars. This model has a dense core of about 12 Earth masses and a hydrogen–helium-rich envelope with approximately three times solar metallicity.

  16. Operational safety reliability research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, R.E.; Boccio, J.L.

    1986-01-01

    Operating reactor events such as the TMI accident and the Salem automatic-trip failures raised the concern that during a plant's operating lifetime the reliability of systems could degrade from the design level that was considered in the licensing process. To address this concern, NRC is sponsoring the Operational Safety Reliability Research project. The objectives of this project are to identify the essential tasks of a reliability program and to evaluate the effectiveness and attributes of such a reliability program applicable to maintaining an acceptable level of safety during the operating lifetime at the plant

  17. Circuit design for reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Cao, Yu; Wirth, Gilson

    2015-01-01

    This book presents physical understanding, modeling and simulation, on-chip characterization, layout solutions, and design techniques that are effective to enhance the reliability of various circuit units.  The authors provide readers with techniques for state of the art and future technologies, ranging from technology modeling, fault detection and analysis, circuit hardening, and reliability management. Provides comprehensive review on various reliability mechanisms at sub-45nm nodes; Describes practical modeling and characterization techniques for reliability; Includes thorough presentation of robust design techniques for major VLSI design units; Promotes physical understanding with first-principle simulations.

  18. Bayesian approach in the power electric systems study of reliability ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Reliability - Power System - Bayes Theorem - Weibull Model - Probability. ... ensure a series of estimated parameter (failure rate, mean time to failure, function .... only on random variable r.v. describing the operating conditions: ..... Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time, Reliability Engineering.

  19. Reliability of reactor materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toerroenen, K.; Aho-Mantila, I.

    1986-05-01

    This report is the final technical report of the fracture mechanics part of the Reliability of Reactor Materials Programme, which was carried out at the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) through the years 1981 to 1983. Research and development work was carried out in five major areas, viz. statistical treatment and modelling of cleavage fracture, crack arrest, ductile fracture, instrumented impact testing as well as comparison of numerical and experimental elastic-plastic fracture mechanics. In the area of cleavage fracture the critical variables affecting the fracture of steels are considered in the frames of a statistical model, so called WST-model. Comparison of fracture toughness values predicted by the model and corresponding experimental values shows excellent agreement for a variety of microstructures. different posibilities for using the model are discussed. The development work in the area of crack arrest testing was concentrated in the crack starter properties, test arrangement and computer control. A computerized elastic-plastic fracture testing method with a variety of test specimen geometries in a large temperature range was developed for a routine stage. Ductile fracture characteristics of reactor pressure vessel steel A533B and comparable weld material are given. The features of a new, patented instrumented impact tester are described. Experimental and theoretical comparisons between the new and conventional testers indicated clearly the improvements achieved with the new tester. A comparison of numerical and experimental elastic-plastic fracture mechanics capabilities at VTT was carried out. The comparison consisted of two-dimensional linear elastic as well as elastic-plastic finite element analysis of four specimen geometries and equivalent experimental tests. (author)

  20. Quality and reliability management and its applications

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    Integrating development processes, policies, and reliability predictions from the beginning of the product development lifecycle to ensure high levels of product performance and safety, this book helps companies overcome the challenges posed by increasingly complex systems in today’s competitive marketplace.   Examining both research on and practical aspects of product quality and reliability management with an emphasis on applications, the book features contributions written by active researchers and/or experienced practitioners in the field, so as to effectively bridge the gap between theory and practice and address new research challenges in reliability and quality management in practice.    Postgraduates, researchers and practitioners in the areas of reliability engineering and management, amongst others, will find the book to offer a state-of-the-art survey of quality and reliability management and practices.

  1. Hawaii Electric System Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loose, Verne William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers’ views of reliability “worth” and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers’ views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

  2. Hawaii electric system reliability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto; Loose, Verne William

    2012-09-01

    This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers' views of reliability %E2%80%9Cworth%E2%80%9D and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers' views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

  3. Improving machinery reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bloch, Heinz P

    1998-01-01

    This totally revised, updated and expanded edition provides proven techniques and procedures that extend machinery life, reduce maintenance costs, and achieve optimum machinery reliability. This essential text clearly describes the reliability improvement and failure avoidance steps practiced by best-of-class process plants in the U.S. and Europe.

  4. Integrated system reliability analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Specific targets: 1) The report shall describe the state of the art of reliability and risk-based assessment of wind turbine components. 2) Development of methodology for reliability and risk-based assessment of the wind turbine at system level. 3) Describe quantitative and qualitative measures...

  5. Reliability of neural encoding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alstrøm, Preben; Beierholm, Ulrik; Nielsen, Carsten Dahl

    2002-01-01

    The reliability with which a neuron is able to create the same firing pattern when presented with the same stimulus is of critical importance to the understanding of neuronal information processing. We show that reliability is closely related to the process of phaselocking. Experimental results f...

  6. Design reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buden, D.; Hunt, R.N.M.

    1989-01-01

    Improved design techniques are needed to achieve high reliability at minimum cost. This is especially true of space systems where lifetimes of many years without maintenance are needed and severe mass limitations exist. Reliability must be designed into these systems from the start. Techniques are now being explored to structure a formal design process that will be more complete and less expensive. The intent is to integrate the best features of design, reliability analysis, and expert systems to design highly reliable systems to meet stressing needs. Taken into account are the large uncertainties that exist in materials, design models, and fabrication techniques. Expert systems are a convenient method to integrate into the design process a complete definition of all elements that should be considered and an opportunity to integrate the design process with reliability, safety, test engineering, maintenance and operator training. 1 fig

  7. A Reliability-Oriented Design Method for Power Electronic Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Zhou, Dao; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2013-01-01

    Reliability is a crucial performance indicator of power electronic systems in terms of availability, mission accomplishment and life cycle cost. A paradigm shift in the research on reliability of power electronics is going on from simple handbook based calculations (e.g. models in MIL-HDBK-217F h...... and reliability prediction models are provided. A case study on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical component IGBT modules....

  8. Reliability analysis techniques for the design engineer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corran, E.R.; Witt, H.H.

    1980-01-01

    A fault tree analysis package is described that eliminates most of the housekeeping tasks involved in proceeding from the initial construction of a fault tree to the final stage of presenting a reliability analysis in a safety report. It is suitable for designers with relatively little training in reliability analysis and computer operation. Users can rapidly investigate the reliability implications of various options at the design stage, and evolve a system which meets specified reliability objectives. Later independent review is thus unlikely to reveal major shortcomings necessitating modification and projects delays. The package operates interactively allowing the user to concentrate on the creative task of developing the system fault tree, which may be modified and displayed graphically. For preliminary analysis system data can be derived automatically from a generic data bank. As the analysis procedes improved estimates of critical failure rates and test and maintenance schedules can be inserted. The computations are standard, - identification of minimal cut-sets, estimation of reliability parameters, and ranking of the effect of the individual component failure modes and system failure modes on these parameters. The user can vary the fault trees and data on-line, and print selected data for preferred systems in a form suitable for inclusion in safety reports. A case history is given - that of HIFAR containment isolation system. (author)

  9. Reliability analysis techniques for the design engineer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corran, E.R.; Witt, H.H.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a fault tree analysis package that eliminates most of the housekeeping tasks involved in proceeding from the initial construction of a fault tree to the final stage of presenting a reliability analysis in a safety report. It is suitable for designers with relatively little training in reliability analysis and computer operation. Users can rapidly investigate the reliability implications of various options at the design stage and evolve a system which meets specified reliability objectives. Later independent review is thus unlikely to reveal major shortcomings necessitating modification and project delays. The package operates interactively, allowing the user to concentrate on the creative task of developing the system fault tree, which may be modified and displayed graphically. For preliminary analysis, system data can be derived automatically from a generic data bank. As the analysis proceeds, improved estimates of critical failure rates and test and maintenance schedules can be inserted. The technique is applied to the reliability analysis of the recently upgraded HIFAR Containment Isolation System. (author)

  10. Methodology for reliability, economic and environmental assessment of wave energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorpe, T.W.; Muirhead, S.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the Preliminary Actions in Wave Energy R and D for DG XII's Joule programme, methodologies were developed to facilitate assessment of the reliability, economics and environmental impact of wave energy. This paper outlines these methodologies, their limitations and areas requiring further R and D. (author)

  11. Reliability and mechanical design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemaire, Maurice

    1997-01-01

    A lot of results in mechanical design are obtained from a modelisation of physical reality and from a numerical solution which would lead to the evaluation of needs and resources. The goal of the reliability analysis is to evaluate the confidence which it is possible to grant to the chosen design through the calculation of a probability of failure linked to the retained scenario. Two types of analysis are proposed: the sensitivity analysis and the reliability analysis. Approximate methods are applicable to problems related to reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS)

  12. RTE - 2013 Reliability Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denis, Anne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    RTE publishes a yearly reliability report based on a standard model to facilitate comparisons and highlight long-term trends. The 2013 report is not only stating the facts of the Significant System Events (ESS), but it moreover underlines the main elements dealing with the reliability of the electrical power system. It highlights the various elements which contribute to present and future reliability and provides an overview of the interaction between the various stakeholders of the Electrical Power System on the scale of the European Interconnected Network. (author)

  13. TFTR CAMAC power supplies reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camp, R.A.; Bergin, W.

    1989-01-01

    Since the expected life of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) has been extended into the early 1990's, the issues of equipment wear-out, when to refurbish/replace, and the costs associated with these decisions, must be faced. The management of the maintenance of the TFTR Central Instrumentation, Control and Data Acquisition System (CICADA) power supplies within the CAMAC network is a case study of a set of systems to monitor repairable systems reliability, costs, and results of action. The CAMAC network is composed of approximately 500 racks, each with its own power supply. By using a simple reliability estimator on a coarse time interval, in conjunction with determining the root cause of individual failures, a cost effective repair and maintenance program has been realized. This paper describes the estimator, some of the specific causes for recurring failures and their correction, and the subsequent effects on the reliability estimator. By extension of this program the authors can assess the continued viability of CAMAC power supplies into the future, predicting wear-out and developing cost effective refurbishment/replacement policies. 4 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  14. Approach to reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.; Bourne, A.J.

    1975-01-01

    Experience has shown that reliability assessments can play an important role in the early design and subsequent operation of technological systems where reliability is at a premium. The approaches to and techniques for such assessments, which have been outlined in the paper, have been successfully applied in variety of applications ranging from individual equipments to large and complex systems. The general approach involves the logical and systematic establishment of the purpose, performance requirements and reliability criteria of systems. This is followed by an appraisal of likely system achievment based on the understanding of different types of variational behavior. A fundamental reliability model emerges from the correlation between the appropriate Q and H functions for performance requirement and achievement. This model may cover the complete spectrum of performance behavior in all the system dimensions

  15. The rating reliability calculator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon David J

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

  16. Structural systems reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frangopol, D.

    1975-01-01

    For an exact evaluation of the reliability of a structure it appears necessary to determine the distribution densities of the loads and resistances and to calculate the correlation coefficients between loads and between resistances. These statistical characteristics can be obtained only on the basis of a long activity period. In case that such studies are missing the statistical properties formulated here give upper and lower bounds of the reliability. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Reliability and maintainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Several communications in this conference are concerned with nuclear plant reliability and maintainability; their titles are: maintenance optimization of stand-by Diesels of 900 MW nuclear power plants; CLAIRE: an event-based simulation tool for software testing; reliability as one important issue within the periodic safety review of nuclear power plants; design of nuclear building ventilation by the means of functional analysis; operation characteristic analysis for a power industry plant park, as a function of influence parameters

  18. Reliability data book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bento, J.P.; Boerje, S.; Ericsson, G.; Hasler, A.; Lyden, C.O.; Wallin, L.; Poern, K.; Aakerlund, O.

    1985-01-01

    The main objective for the report is to improve failure data for reliability calculations as parts of safety analyses for Swedish nuclear power plants. The work is based primarily on evaluations of failure reports as well as information provided by the operation and maintenance staff of each plant. In the report are presented charts of reliability data for: pumps, valves, control rods/rod drives, electrical components, and instruments. (L.E.)

  19. Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

  20. Analysis and Application of Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hae Seong; Park, Dong Ho; Kim, Jae Ju

    1999-05-01

    This book tells of analysis and application of reliability, which includes definition, importance and historical background of reliability, function of reliability and failure rate, life distribution and assumption of reliability, reliability of unrepaired system, reliability of repairable system, sampling test of reliability, failure analysis like failure analysis by FEMA and FTA, and cases, accelerated life testing such as basic conception, acceleration and acceleration factor, and analysis of accelerated life testing data, maintenance policy about alternation and inspection.

  1. Digital Processor Module Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong; Jung, Jae Hyun; Kim, Jae Ho; Kim, Sung Hun

    2005-01-01

    The system used in plant, military equipment, satellite, etc. consists of many electronic parts as control module, which requires relatively high reliability than other commercial electronic products. Specially, Nuclear power plant related to the radiation safety requires high safety and reliability, so most parts apply to Military-Standard level. Reliability prediction method provides the rational basis of system designs and also provides the safety significance of system operations. Thus various reliability prediction tools have been developed in recent decades, among of them, the MI-HDBK-217 method has been widely used as a powerful tool for the prediction. In this work, It is explained that reliability analysis work for Digital Processor Module (DPM, control module of SMART) is performed by Parts Stress Method based on MIL-HDBK-217F NOTICE2. We are using the Relex 7.6 of Relex software corporation, because reliability analysis process requires enormous part libraries and data for failure rate calculation

  2. Modeling high-Power Accelerators Reliability-SNS LINAC (SNS-ORNL); MAX LINAC (MYRRHA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitigoi, A. E.; Fernandez Ramos, P.

    2013-01-01

    Improving reliability has recently become a very important objective in the field of particle accelerators. The particle accelerators in operation are constantly undergoing modifications, and improvements are implemented using new technologies, more reliable components or redundant schemes (to obtain more reliability, strength, more power, etc.) A reliability model of SNS (Spallation Neutron Source) LINAC has been developed within MAX project and analysis of the accelerator systems reliability has been performed within the MAX project, using the Risk Spectrum reliability analysis software. The analysis results have been evaluated by comparison with the SNS operational data. Results and conclusions are presented in this paper, oriented to identify design weaknesses and provide recommendations for improving reliability of MYRRHA linear accelerator. The SNS reliability model developed for the MAX preliminary design phase indicates possible avenues for further investigation that could be needed to improve the reliability of the high-power accelerators, in view of the future reliability targets of ADS accelerators.

  3. Parts and Components Reliability Assessment: A Cost Effective Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lydia

    2009-01-01

    System reliability assessment is a methodology which incorporates reliability analyses performed at parts and components level such as Reliability Prediction, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to assess risks, perform design tradeoffs, and therefore, to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success. The system reliability is used to optimize the product design to accommodate today?s mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. Stand ard based reliability assessment is an effective approach consisting of reliability predictions together with other reliability analyses for electronic, electrical, and electro-mechanical (EEE) complex parts and components of large systems based on failure rate estimates published by the United States (U.S.) military or commercial standards and handbooks. Many of these standards are globally accepted and recognized. The reliability assessment is especially useful during the initial stages when the system design is still in the development and hard failure data is not yet available or manufacturers are not contractually obliged by their customers to publish the reliability estimates/predictions for their parts and components. This paper presents a methodology to assess system reliability using parts and components reliability estimates to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success in an efficient manner, low cost, and tight schedule.

  4. Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trebi-Ollennu, Ashitey; Dolan, John; Stancliff, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    A mission reliability estimation method has been designed to translate mission requirements into choices of robot modules in order to configure a multi-robot team to have high reliability at minimal cost. In order to build cost-effective robot teams for long-term missions, one must be able to compare alternative design paradigms in a principled way by comparing the reliability of different robot models and robot team configurations. Core modules have been created including: a probabilistic module with reliability-cost characteristics, a method for combining the characteristics of multiple modules to determine an overall reliability-cost characteristic, and a method for the generation of legitimate module combinations based on mission specifications and the selection of the best of the resulting combinations from a cost-reliability standpoint. The developed methodology can be used to predict the probability of a mission being completed, given information about the components used to build the robots, as well as information about the mission tasks. In the research for this innovation, sample robot missions were examined and compared to the performance of robot teams with different numbers of robots and different numbers of spare components. Data that a mission designer would need was factored in, such as whether it would be better to have a spare robot versus an equivalent number of spare parts, or if mission cost can be reduced while maintaining reliability using spares. This analytical model was applied to an example robot mission, examining the cost-reliability tradeoffs among different team configurations. Particularly scrutinized were teams using either redundancy (spare robots) or repairability (spare components). Using conservative estimates of the cost-reliability relationship, results show that it is possible to significantly reduce the cost of a robotic mission by using cheaper, lower-reliability components and providing spares. This suggests that the

  5. Wind turbine reliability : a database and analysis approach.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linsday, James (ARES Corporation); Briand, Daniel; Hill, Roger Ray; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.; Benjamin, Allan S. (ARES Corporation)

    2008-02-01

    The US wind Industry has experienced remarkable growth since the turn of the century. At the same time, the physical size and electrical generation capabilities of wind turbines has also experienced remarkable growth. As the market continues to expand, and as wind generation continues to gain a significant share of the generation portfolio, the reliability of wind turbine technology becomes increasingly important. This report addresses how operations and maintenance costs are related to unreliability - that is the failures experienced by systems and components. Reliability tools are demonstrated, data needed to understand and catalog failure events is described, and practical wind turbine reliability models are illustrated, including preliminary results. This report also presents a continuing process of how to proceed with controlling industry requirements, needs, and expectations related to Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety. A simply stated goal of this process is to better understand and to improve the operable reliability of wind turbine installations.

  6. Evolving Reliability and Maintainability Allocations for NASA Ground Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, Gisela; Toon, T.; Toon, J.; Conner, A.; Adams, T.; Miranda, D.

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology and value of modifying allocations to reliability and maintainability requirements for the NASA Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) programs subsystems. As systems progressed through their design life cycle and hardware data became available, it became necessary to reexamine the previously derived allocations. This iterative process provided an opportunity for the reliability engineering team to reevaluate allocations as systems moved beyond their conceptual and preliminary design phases. These new allocations are based on updated designs and maintainability characteristics of the components. It was found that trade-offs in reliability and maintainability were essential to ensuring the integrity of the reliability and maintainability analysis. This paper discusses the results of reliability and maintainability reallocations made for the GSDO subsystems as the program nears the end of its design phase.

  7. A Method of Nuclear Software Reliability Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Gee Yong; Eom, Heung Seop; Cheon, Se Woo; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2011-01-01

    A method on estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM) where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow the non-homogeneous Poisson process. Several modeling schemes are presented in order to estimate and predict more precisely the number of software defects based on a few of software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating the software test cases into the model. It is identified that this method is capable of accurately estimating the remaining number of software defects which are on-demand type directly affecting safety trip functions. The software reliability can be estimated from a model equation and one method of obtaining the software reliability is proposed

  8. Safety and reliability criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neil, R.

    1978-01-01

    Nuclear power plants and, in particular, reactor pressure boundary components have unique reliability requirements, in that usually no significant redundancy is possible, and a single failure can give rise to possible widespread core damage and fission product release. Reliability may be required for availability or safety reasons, but in the case of the pressure boundary and certain other systems safety may dominate. Possible Safety and Reliability (S and R) criteria are proposed which would produce acceptable reactor design. Without some S and R requirement the designer has no way of knowing how far he must go in analysing his system or component, or whether his proposed solution is likely to gain acceptance. The paper shows how reliability targets for given components and systems can be individually considered against the derived S and R criteria at the design and construction stage. Since in the case of nuclear pressure boundary components there is often very little direct experience on which to base reliability studies, relevant non-nuclear experience is examined. (author)

  9. Proposed reliability cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1973-01-01

    The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

  10. Reliability planning in distributed electric energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahn, E.

    1978-10-01

    The goal of this paper is to develop tools for technology evaluation that address questions involving the economics of large-scale systems. The kind of cost discussed usually involves some dynamic aspect of the energy system. In particular, such properties as flexibility, stability, and resilience are features of entire systems. Special attention must be paid to the question of reliability, i.e., availability on demand. The storage problem and the planning for reliability in utility systems are the subjects of this paper. The introductory chapter addresses preliminary definitions--reliability planning, uncertainty, resilience, and other sensitivities. The study focuses on the contrast between conventional power generation technologies with controllable output and intermittent resources such as wind and solar electric conversion devices. The system studied is a stylized representation of California conditions. Significant differences were found in reliability planning requirements (and therefore costs) for systems dominated by central station plants as opposed to those dominated by intermittent resource technologies. It is argued that existing hydroelectric facilities need re-optimization. These plants provide the only currently existing bulk power storage in electric energy systems. 38 references. (MCW)

  11. Reliability Centered Maintenance - Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammerer, Catherine C.

    2009-01-01

    Journal article about Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) methodologies used by United Space Alliance, LLC (USA) in support of the Space Shuttle Program at Kennedy Space Center. The USA Reliability Centered Maintenance program differs from traditional RCM programs because various methodologies are utilized to take advantage of their respective strengths for each application. Based on operational experience, USA has customized the traditional RCM methodology into a streamlined lean logic path and has implemented the use of statistical tools to drive the process. USA RCM has integrated many of the L6S tools into both RCM methodologies. The tools utilized in the Measure, Analyze, and Improve phases of a Lean Six Sigma project lend themselves to application in the RCM process. All USA RCM methodologies meet the requirements defined in SAE JA 1011, Evaluation Criteria for Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) Processes. The proposed article explores these methodologies.

  12. Issues in cognitive reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, D.D.; Hitchler, M.J.; Rumancik, J.A.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter examines some problems in current methods to assess reactor operator reliability at cognitive tasks and discusses new approaches to solve these problems. The two types of human failures are errors in the execution of an intention and errors in the formation/selection of an intention. Topics considered include the types of description, error correction, cognitive performance and response time, the speed-accuracy tradeoff function, function based task analysis, and cognitive task analysis. One problem of human reliability analysis (HRA) techniques in general is the question of what are the units of behavior whose reliability are to be determined. A second problem for HRA is that people often detect and correct their errors. The use of function based analysis, which maps the problem space for plant control, is recommended

  13. Reliability issues in PACS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taira, Ricky K.; Chan, Kelby K.; Stewart, Brent K.; Weinberg, Wolfram S.

    1991-07-01

    Reliability is an increasing concern when moving PACS from the experimental laboratory to the clinical environment. Any system downtime may seriously affect patient care. The authors report on the several classes of errors encountered during the pre-clinical release of the PACS during the past several months and present the solutions implemented to handle them. The reliability issues discussed include: (1) environmental precautions, (2) database backups, (3) monitor routines of critical resources and processes, (4) hardware redundancy (networks, archives), and (5) development of a PACS quality control program.

  14. Reliability Parts Derating Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    226-30, October 1974. 66 I, 26. "Reliability of GAAS Injection Lasers", De Loach , B. C., Jr., 1973 IEEE/OSA Conference on Laser Engineering and...Vol. R-23, No. 4, 226-30, October 1974. 28. "Reliability of GAAS Injection Lasers", De Loach , B. C., Jr., 1973 IEEE/OSA Conference on Laser...opnatien ot 󈨊 deg C, mounted on a 4-inach square 0.250~ inch thick al~loy alum~nusi panel.. This mounting technique should be L~ ken into cunoidur~tiou

  15. A reliability evaluation method for NPP safety DCS application software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Yunjian; Zhang Lei; Liu Yuan

    2014-01-01

    In the field of nuclear power plant (NPP) digital i and c application, reliability evaluation for safety DCS application software is a key obstacle to be removed. In order to quantitatively evaluate reliability of NPP safety DCS application software, this paper propose a reliability evaluating method based on software development life cycle every stage's v and v defects density characteristics, by which the operating reliability level of the software can be predicted before its delivery, and helps to improve the reliability of NPP safety important software. (authors)

  16. Reasoning with Inductive Argument Test: A Study of Validity and Reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Emrah Karadere

    2013-12-01

    Conclusion: The preliminary data obtained from the study of reliability and validity of the scale shows that ‘Reasoning with Inductive Argument Test’ supports reliability and validity in Turkish population. [JCBPR 2013; 2(3.000: 156-161

  17. Preliminary I&C Design for LORELEI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korotkin, S.; Kaufman, Y.; Guttmann, E. B.; Levy, S.; Amidan, D.; Gdalyho, B.; Cahana, T.; Ellenbogen, A.; Arad, M.; Weiss, Y.; Sasson, A.; Ferry, L.; Bourrelly, F.; Cohen, Y.

    2014-01-01

    This document summarizes the preliminary I&C design for LORELEI experiment The preliminary design deals with considerations regarding appropriate safety and service instrumentation. The determined closed loop control rules for temperature and position will be implemented in the detailed design. The Computer Aided Operator Decisions System (CAODS) will be used for prediction of hot spot temperature and thickness of oxidation layer using Baker-Just correlation. The proposed hybrid simulation system comprising of both virtual and real hardware will be in-cooperated for LORELEI verification. It will perform both integration cold tests for a partial hardware loop and virtual tests for the final I&C design

  18. Columbus safety and reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longhurst, F.; Wessels, H.

    1988-10-01

    Analyses carried out to ensure Columbus reliability, availability, and maintainability, and operational and design safety are summarized. Failure modes/effects/criticality is the main qualitative tool used. The main aspects studied are fault tolerance, hazard consequence control, risk minimization, human error effects, restorability, and safe-life design.

  19. Reliability versus reproducibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautzenheiser, C.E.

    1976-01-01

    Defect detection and reproducibility of results are two separate but closely related subjects. It is axiomatic that a defect must be detected from examination to examination or reproducibility of results is very poor. On the other hand, a defect can be detected on each of subsequent examinations for higher reliability and still have poor reproducibility of results

  20. Power transformer reliability modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.

    2010-01-01

    Problem description Electrical power grids serve to transport and distribute electrical power with high reliability and availability at acceptable costs and risks. These grids play a crucial though preferably invisible role in supplying sufficient power in a convenient form. Today’s society has

  1. Designing reliability into accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutton, A.

    1992-08-01

    For the next generation of high performance, high average luminosity colliders, the ''factories,'' reliability engineering must be introduced right at the inception of the project and maintained as a central theme throughout the project. There are several aspects which will be addressed separately: Concept; design; motivation; management techniques; and fault diagnosis

  2. Reliability and code level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kasperski, M.; Geurts, C.P.W.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes the work of the IAWE Working Group WBG - Reliability and Code Level, one of the International Codification Working Groups set up at ICWE10 in Copenhagen. The following topics are covered: sources of uncertainties in the design wind load, appropriate design target values for the

  3. Reliability of Plastic Slabs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1989-01-01

    In the paper it is shown how upper and lower bounds for the reliability of plastic slabs can be determined. For the fundamental case it is shown that optimal bounds of a deterministic and a stochastic analysis are obtained on the basis of the same failure mechanisms and the same stress fields....

  4. Reliability based structural design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2014-01-01

    According to ISO 2394, structures shall be designed, constructed and maintained in such a way that they are suited for their use during the design working life in an economic way. To fulfil this requirement one needs insight into the risk and reliability under expected and non-expected actions. A

  5. Travel time reliability modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    This report includes three papers as follows: : 1. Guo F., Rakha H., and Park S. (2010), "A Multi-state Travel Time Reliability Model," : Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, n 2188, : pp. 46-54. : 2. Park S.,...

  6. Reliability and Model Fit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Leanne M.; Edwards, Michael C.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to highlight the distinction between the reliability of test scores and the fit of psychometric measurement models, reminding readers why it is important to consider both when evaluating whether test scores are valid for a proposed interpretation and/or use. It is often the case that an investigator judges both the…

  7. Parametric Mass Reliability Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, James P.

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) systems are designed based upon having redundant systems with replaceable orbital replacement units (ORUs). These ORUs are designed to be swapped out fairly quickly, but some are very large, and some are made up of many components. When an ORU fails, it is replaced on orbit with a spare; the failed unit is sometimes returned to Earth to be serviced and re-launched. Such a system is not feasible for a 500+ day long-duration mission beyond low Earth orbit. The components that make up these ORUs have mixed reliabilities. Components that make up the most mass-such as computer housings, pump casings, and the silicon board of PCBs-typically are the most reliable. Meanwhile components that tend to fail the earliest-such as seals or gaskets-typically have a small mass. To better understand the problem, my project is to create a parametric model that relates both the mass of ORUs to reliability, as well as the mass of ORU subcomponents to reliability.

  8. Reliability Approach of a Compressor System using Reliability Block ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pc

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... This paper presents a reliability analysis of such a system using reliability ... Keywords-compressor system, reliability, reliability block diagram, RBD .... the same structure has been kept with the three subsystems: air flow, oil flow and .... and Safety in Engineering Design", Springer, 2009. [3] P. O'Connor ...

  9. Integration of NDE Reliability and Fracture Mechanics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, F. L.; Doctor, S. R.; Heas!er, P. G.; Morris, C. J.; Pitman, S. G.; Selby, G. P.; Simonen, F. A.

    1981-03-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory is conducting a four-phase program for measuring and evaluating the effectiveness and reliability of in-service inspection (lSI} performed on the primary system piping welds of commercial light water reactors (LWRs). Phase I of the program is complete. A survey was made of the state of practice for ultrasonic rsr of LWR primary system piping welds. Fracture mechanics calculations were made to establish required nondestrutive testing sensitivities. In general, it was found that fatigue flaws less than 25% of wall thickness would not grow to failure within an inspection interval of 10 years. However, in some cases failure could occur considerably faster. Statistical methods for predicting and measuring the effectiveness and reliability of lSI were developed and will be applied in the "Round Robin Inspections" of Phase II. Methods were also developed for the production of flaws typical of those found in service. Samples fabricated by these methods wilI be used in Phase II to test inspection effectiveness and reliability. Measurements were made of the influence of flaw characteristics {i.e., roughness, tightness, and orientation) on inspection reliability. These measurernents, as well as the predictions of a statistical model for inspection reliability, indicate that current reporting and recording sensitivities are inadequate.

  10. Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

    2006-12-01

    Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991) cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.

  11. Reliability in the utility computing era: Towards reliable Fog computing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Burtschy, Bernard; Albeanu, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers current paradigms in computing and outlines the most important aspects concerning their reliability. The Fog computing paradigm as a non-trivial extension of the Cloud is considered and the reliability of the networks of smart devices are discussed. Combining the reliability...... requirements of grid and cloud paradigms with the reliability requirements of networks of sensor and actuators it follows that designing a reliable Fog computing platform is feasible....

  12. A general software reliability process simulation technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, Robert C.

    1991-01-01

    The structure and rationale of the generalized software reliability process, together with the design and implementation of a computer program that simulates this process are described. Given assumed parameters of a particular project, the users of this program are able to generate simulated status timelines of work products, numbers of injected anomalies, and the progress of testing, fault isolation, repair, validation, and retest. Such timelines are useful in comparison with actual timeline data, for validating the project input parameters, and for providing data for researchers in reliability prediction modeling.

  13. Reliability of application of inspection procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murgatroyd, R A

    1988-12-31

    This document deals with the reliability of application of inspection procedures. A method to ensure that the inspection of defects thanks to fracture mechanics is reliable is described. The Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Analysis (SHERPA) methodology is applied to every task performed by the inspector to estimate the possibility of error. It appears that it is essential that inspection procedures should be sufficiently rigorous to avoid substantial errors, and that the selection procedures and the training period for inspectors should be optimised. (TEC). 3 refs.

  14. Reliability of application of inspection procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murgatroyd, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    This document deals with the reliability of application of inspection procedures. A method to ensure that the inspection of defects thanks to fracture mechanics is reliable is described. The Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Analysis (SHERPA) methodology is applied to every task performed by the inspector to estimate the possibility of error. It appears that it is essential that inspection procedures should be sufficiently rigorous to avoid substantial errors, and that the selection procedures and the training period for inspectors should be optimised. (TEC)

  15. [Study of the relationship between human quality and reliability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, S; Wang, C; Wang, L i; Yuan, J; Liu, H; Jiao, X

    1997-02-01

    To clarify the relationship between human quality and reliability, 1925 experiments in 20 subjects were carried out to study the relationship between disposition character, digital memory, graphic memory, multi-reaction time and education level and simulated aircraft operation. Meanwhile, effects of task difficulty and enviromental factor on human reliability were also studied. The results showed that human quality can be predicted and evaluated through experimental methods. The better the human quality, the higher the human reliability.

  16. Waste package reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Sastre, C.

    1983-01-01

    Proof of future performance of a complex system such as a high-level nuclear waste package over a period of hundreds to thousands of years cannot be had in the ordinary sense of the word. The general method of probabilistic reliability analysis could provide an acceptable framework to identify, organize, and convey the information necessary to satisfy the criterion of reasonable assurance of waste package performance according to the regulatory requirements set forth in 10 CFR 60. General principles which may be used to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative reliability of a waste package design are indicated and illustrated with a sample calculation of a repository concept in basalt. 8 references, 1 table

  17. Accelerator reliability workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardy, L; Duru, Ph; Koch, J M; Revol, J L; Van Vaerenbergh, P; Volpe, A M; Clugnet, K; Dely, A; Goodhew, D

    2002-07-01

    About 80 experts attended this workshop, which brought together all accelerator communities: accelerator driven systems, X-ray sources, medical and industrial accelerators, spallation sources projects (American and European), nuclear physics, etc. With newly proposed accelerator applications such as nuclear waste transmutation, replacement of nuclear power plants and others. Reliability has now become a number one priority for accelerator designers. Every part of an accelerator facility from cryogenic systems to data storage via RF systems are concerned by reliability. This aspect is now taken into account in the design/budget phase, especially for projects whose goal is to reach no more than 10 interruptions per year. This document gathers the slides but not the proceedings of the workshop.

  18. Human Reliability Program Workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landers, John; Rogers, Erin; Gerke, Gretchen

    2014-05-18

    A Human Reliability Program (HRP) is designed to protect national security as well as worker and public safety by continuously evaluating the reliability of those who have access to sensitive materials, facilities, and programs. Some elements of a site HRP include systematic (1) supervisory reviews, (2) medical and psychological assessments, (3) management evaluations, (4) personnel security reviews, and (4) training of HRP staff and critical positions. Over the years of implementing an HRP, the Department of Energy (DOE) has faced various challenges and overcome obstacles. During this 4-day activity, participants will examine programs that mitigate threats to nuclear security and the insider threat to include HRP, Nuclear Security Culture (NSC) Enhancement, and Employee Assistance Programs. The focus will be to develop an understanding of the need for a systematic HRP and to discuss challenges and best practices associated with mitigating the insider threat.

  19. Reliability and construction control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherif S. AbdelSalam

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to determine the most reliable and efficient combination of design and construction methods required for vibro piles. For a wide range of static and dynamic formulas, the reliability-based resistance factors were calculated using EGYPT database, which houses load test results for 318 piles. The analysis was extended to introduce a construction control factor that determines the variation between the pile nominal capacities calculated using static versus dynamic formulae. From the major outcomes, the lowest coefficient of variation is associated with Davisson’s criterion, and the resistance factors calculated for the AASHTO method are relatively high compared with other methods. Additionally, the CPT-Nottingham and Schmertmann method provided the most economic design. Recommendations related to a pile construction control factor were also presented, and it was found that utilizing the factor can significantly reduce variations between calculated and actual capacities.

  20. Scyllac equipment reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutscher, W.D.; Johnson, K.J.

    1975-01-01

    Most of the failures in Scyllac can be related to crowbar trigger cable faults. A new cable has been designed, procured, and is currently undergoing evaluation. When the new cable has been proven, it will be worked into the system as quickly as possible without causing too much additional down time. The cable-tip problem may not be easy or even desirable to solve. A tightly fastened permanent connection that maximizes contact area would be more reliable than the plug-in type of connection in use now, but it would make system changes and repairs much more difficult. The balance of the failures have such a low occurrence rate that they do not cause much down time and no major effort is underway to eliminate them. Even though Scyllac was built as an experimental system and has many thousands of components, its reliability is very good. Because of this the experiment has been able to progress at a reasonable pace