WorldWideScience

Sample records for preliminary reliability prediction

  1. Reliability prediction techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whittaker, B.; Worthington, B.; Lord, J.F.; Pinkard, D.

    1986-01-01

    The paper demonstrates the feasibility of applying reliability assessment techniques to mining equipment. A number of techniques are identified and described and examples of their use in assessing mining equipment are given. These techniques include: reliability prediction; failure analysis; design audit; maintainability; availability and the life cycle costing. Specific conclusions regarding the usefulness of each technique are outlined. The choice of techniques depends upon both the type of equipment being assessed and its stage of development, with numerical prediction best suited for electronic equipment and fault analysis and design audit suited to mechanical equipment. Reliability assessments involve much detailed and time consuming work but it has been demonstrated that the resulting reliability improvements lead to savings in service costs which more than offset the cost of the evaluation.

  2. Predicting Reliability of Tactical Network Using RBFNN

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xiao-kai; HOU Chao-zhen

    2005-01-01

    A description of the reliability evaluation of tactical network is given, which reflects not only the non-reliable factors of nodes and links but also the factors of network topological structure. On the basis of this description, a reliability prediction model and its algorithms are put forward based on the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for the tactical network. This model can carry out the non-linear mapping relationship between the network topological structure, the nodes reliabilities, the links reliabilities and the reliability of network. The results of simulation prove the effectiveness of this method in the reliability and the connectivity prediction for tactical network.

  3. Software architecture and design for reliability predictability

    CERN Document Server

    Semegn, Assefa D

    2011-01-01

    Reliability prediction of a software product is complex due to interdependence and interactions among components and the difficulty of representing this behavior with tractable models. Models developed by making simplifying assumptions about the software

  4. Final report on reliability and lifetime prediction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillen, Kenneth T; Wise, Jonathan; Jones, Gary D.; Causa, Al G.; Terrill, Edward R.; Borowczak, Marc

    2012-12-01

    This document highlights the important results obtained from the subtask of the Goodyear CRADA devoted to better understanding reliability of tires and to developing better lifetime prediction methods. The overall objective was to establish the chemical and physical basis for the degradation of tires using standard as well as unique models and experimental techniques. Of particular interest was the potential application of our unique modulus profiling apparatus for assessing tire properties and for following tire degradation. During the course of this complex investigation, extensive relevant information was generated, including experimental results, data analyses and development of models and instruments. Detailed descriptions of the findings are included in this report.

  5. Integrated Software Architecture-Based Reliability Prediction for IT Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Brosch, Franz

    2012-01-01

    With the increasing importance of reliability in business and industrial IT systems, new techniques for architecture-based software reliability prediction are becoming an integral part of the development process. This dissertation thesis introduces a novel reliability modelling and prediction technique that considers the software architecture with its component structure, control and data flow, recovery mechanisms, its deployment to distributed hardware resources and the system´s usage p...

  6. Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1985-08-01

    Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. A Dynamical Reliability Prediction Algorithm for Composite Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunli Xie

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic selection and dynamic binding and rebinding at runtime are new characters of composite services. The traditional static reliability prediction models are unsuitable to dynamic composite services. A new reliability predicting algorithm for composite services is proposed in this paper. Firstly, a composite service is decomposed into composition unites (executing path, composite module and atomic service according to their constituents. Consequently, a hierarchical graph of all composite units is constructed. Lastly, a new dynamic reliability prediction algorithm is presented. Comparing with the traditional reliability model, the new dynamic reliability approach is more flexible, which does not recompute reliability for all composite units and only computes the reliability of the effected composite units. In addition, an example to show how to measure the reliability based on our algorithm is designed. The experimental results show our proposed methods can give an accurate estimation of reliability. Furthermore, a more flexible sensitivity analysis is performed to determine which service component has the most significant impact on the improvement of composite service reliability.

  8. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    OpenAIRE

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the reliability of blood pressure measurement for proper cardiovascular risk prediction, both in and out of the doctor’s office. We show that it is possible to obtain a reliable blood pressure without the use o...

  9. Dynamic evidential reasoning algorithm for systems reliability prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chang-Hua; Si, Xiao-Sheng; Yang, Jian-Bo

    2010-07-01

    In this article, dynamic evidential reasoning (DER) algorithm is applied to forecast reliability in turbochargers engine systems and a reliability prediction model is developed. The focus of this study is to examine the feasibility and validity of DER algorithm in systems reliability prediction by comparing it with some existing approaches. To build an effective DER forecasting model, the parameters of prediction model must be set carefully. To solve this problem, a generic nonlinear optimisation model is investigated to search for the optimal parameters of forecasting model, and then the optimal parameters are adopted to construct the DER forecasting model. Finally, a numerical example is provided to demonstrate the detailed implementation procedures and the validity of the proposed approach in the areas of reliability prediction.

  10. Conformal prediction for reliable machine learning theory, adaptations and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Balasubramanian, Vineeth; Vovk, Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detecti

  11. Reliability prediction from burn-in data fit to reliability models

    CERN Document Server

    Bernstein, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    This work will educate chip and system designers on a method for accurately predicting circuit and system reliability in order to estimate failures that will occur in the field as a function of operating conditions at the chip level. This book will combine the knowledge taught in many reliability publications and illustrate how to use the knowledge presented by the semiconductor manufacturing companies in combination with the HTOL end-of-life testing that is currently performed by the chip suppliers as part of their standard qualification procedure and make accurate reliability predictions. Th

  12. Preliminary reliability of the five item physical activity questionnaire

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Min-Haeng

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to design a physical activity questionnaire reflecting on the basic principles and recommendations of exercise and to examine its reliability. [Subjects and Methods] 342 males and 374 females from the community centers (senior center, residential culture center, sport center, and YWCA center) participated in this study. [Results] The test-retest reliability of the physical activity questionnaire, measured with an interval of three months, being between ...

  13. Reliability and preliminary evidence of validity of a Farsi version of the depression anxiety stress scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayani, Ali Asghar

    2010-08-01

    The internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of the Farsi version of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales were examined, with a sample of 306 undergraduate students (123 men, 183 women) ranging from 18 to 51 years of age (M age = 25.4, SD = 6.1). Participants completed the Satisfaction with Life Scale, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale, and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales. The findings confirmed the preliminary reliabilities and preliminary construct validity of the Farsi translation of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales.

  14. Preliminary Evidence of the Reliability and Validity of a Quantitative Measure of Self-Authorship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creamer, Elizabeth G.; Magolda, Marcia Baxter; Yue, Jessica

    2010-01-01

    This article presents preliminary evidence of the reliability and validity of a measure of self-authorship derived from 18 items in the Career Decision Making Survey. The research conceptualizes a quantitative measure of self-authorship as a three-part score that reflects level of agreement with statements at each of the first three phases of…

  15. Reliability and predictive validity of the Food Technology Neophobia Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, G; Kermarrec, C; Sable, T; Cox, D N

    2010-04-01

    The recently developed Food Technology Neophobia Scale (FTNS) was further tested to assess scale reliability. On 2 occasions, 131 consumers responded to the FTNS, technologies descriptions and 'willingness to try' food technologies for 7 products. In the second session, they were offered foods to taste. 'Information seeking' was measured as a potential confounder of stability. The intra-class correlation was 0.86 and there was no difference between the FTNS scores (p>0.05). Correlations with 'willingness to try' novel technologies were -0.39 to -0.58. The FTNS is confirmed as a reliable and predictive measure of responses to novel food technologies.

  16. Audience preferences are predicted by temporal reliability of neural processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dmochowski, Jacek P; Bezdek, Matthew A; Abelson, Brian P; Johnson, John S; Schumacher, Eric H; Parra, Lucas C

    2014-07-29

    Naturalistic stimuli evoke highly reliable brain activity across viewers. Here we record neural activity from a group of naive individuals while viewing popular, previously-broadcast television content for which the broad audience response is characterized by social media activity and audience ratings. We find that the level of inter-subject correlation in the evoked encephalographic responses predicts the expressions of interest and preference among thousands. Surprisingly, ratings of the larger audience are predicted with greater accuracy than those of the individuals from whom the neural data is obtained. An additional functional magnetic resonance imaging study employing a separate sample of subjects shows that the level of neural reliability evoked by these stimuli covaries with the amount of blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) activation in higher-order visual and auditory regions. Our findings suggest that stimuli which we judge favourably may be those to which our brains respond in a stereotypical manner shared by our peers.

  17. Probabilistic Modeling of Fatigue Damage Accumulation for Reliability Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay Rathod

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A methodology for probabilistic modeling of fatigue damage accumulation for single stress level and multistress level loading is proposed in this paper. The methodology uses linear damage accumulation model of Palmgren-Miner, a probabilistic S-N curve, and an approach for a one-to-one transformation of probability density functions to achieve the objective. The damage accumulation is modeled as a nonstationary process as both the expected damage accumulation and its variability change with time. The proposed methodology is then used for reliability prediction under single stress level and multistress level loading, utilizing dynamic statistical model of cumulative fatigue damage. The reliability prediction under both types of loading is demonstrated with examples.

  18. Children’s Foreign Language Anxiety Scale: Preliminary Tests of Reliability and Validity

    OpenAIRE

    Aydın, Selami; Harputlu, Leyla; Güzel, Serhat; Uştuk, Özgehan; Savran Çelik, Şeyda; Genç, Deniz

    2016-01-01

    Foreign language anxiety (FLA), which constitutes a serious problem in the foreign language learning process, has been mainly seen as a research issue regarding adult language learners, while it has been overlooked in children. This is because there is a lack of appropriate tools to measure FLA among children, whereas there are many studies on the scales that aim to measure anxiety levels among adult learners. Thus, the current study aims to conduct the preliminary tests of reliability and va...

  19. Biomechanics of injury prediction for anthropomorphic manikins - preliminary design considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engin, A.E. [Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The anthropomorphic manikins are used in automobile safety research as well as in aerospace related applications. There is now a strong need to advance the biomechanics knowledge to determine appropriate criteria for injury likelihood prediction as functions of manikin-measured responses. In this paper, three regions of a manikin, namely, the head, knee joint, and lumbar spine are taken as examples to introduce preliminary design considerations for injury prediction by means of responses of theoretical models and strategically placed sensing devices.

  20. The Antipsychotics and Sexual Functioning Questionnaire (ASFQ): preliminary evidence for reliability and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Marrit K; Castelein, Stynke; Bous, Johan; van den Heuvel, Edwin R; Wiersma, Durk; Schoevers, Robert A; Knegtering, Henderikus

    2013-11-01

    The aim of this study is to describe the psychometric properties of the Antipsychotics and Sexual Functioning Questionnaire (ASFQ). Internal reliability, test-retest reliability, inter-rater reliability, validity and sensitivity to change were calculated in a sample of 30 patients with schizophrenia or a schizophrenia spectrum disorder using antipsychotics. The ASFQ is a semistructured interview, with good face validity and content validity, that takes on average about 10min to complete. The ASFQ has good internal reliability (Cronbach's alpha 0.84) and good test-retest reliability (mean Spearman's rho=.76). The inter-rater reliability is good for questions about libido, orgasm, erection and ejaculation. Correlation coefficients for calculating convergent validity were modest to good when comparing the ASFQ with the corresponding items on the Subject's Response to Antipsychotics (SRA) questionnaire and the Arizona Sexual Experience Scale (ASEX). Based on preliminary evidence, it can be concluded that the Antipsychotics and Sexual Functioning Questionnaire has reasonable reliability and is available for clinical use and research.

  1. Charge transport model to predict intrinsic reliability for dielectric materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ogden, Sean P. [Howard P. Isermann Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180 (United States); GLOBALFOUNDRIES, 400 Stonebreak Rd. Ext., Malta, New York 12020 (United States); Borja, Juan; Plawsky, Joel L., E-mail: plawsky@rpi.edu; Gill, William N. [Howard P. Isermann Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180 (United States); Lu, T.-M. [Department of Physics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180 (United States); Yeap, Kong Boon [GLOBALFOUNDRIES, 400 Stonebreak Rd. Ext., Malta, New York 12020 (United States)

    2015-09-28

    Several lifetime models, mostly empirical in nature, are used to predict reliability for low-k dielectrics used in integrated circuits. There is a dispute over which model provides the most accurate prediction for device lifetime at operating conditions. As a result, there is a need to transition from the use of these largely empirical models to one built entirely on theory. Therefore, a charge transport model was developed to predict the device lifetime of low-k interconnect systems. The model is based on electron transport and donor-type defect formation. Breakdown occurs when a critical defect concentration accumulates, resulting in electron tunneling and the emptying of positively charged traps. The enhanced local electric field lowers the barrier for electron injection into the dielectric, causing a positive feedforward failure. The charge transport model is able to replicate experimental I-V and I-t curves, capturing the current decay at early stress times and the rapid current increase at failure. The model is based on field-driven and current-driven failure mechanisms and uses a minimal number of parameters. All the parameters have some theoretical basis or have been measured experimentally and are not directly used to fit the slope of the time-to-failure versus applied field curve. Despite this simplicity, the model is able to accurately predict device lifetime for three different sources of experimental data. The simulation's predictions at low fields and very long lifetimes show that the use of a single empirical model can lead to inaccuracies in device reliability.

  2. Is parental emotional reliability predictive of toddlers' learning and helping?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, Ivy; Poulin-Dubois, Diane

    2013-06-01

    This study set out to examine how toddlers' word learning, imitation, and instrumental helping would be affected by the emotional reliability of a familiar model. Therefore, forty-two 24-month-olds were observed in interactions with their primary caregiver, who was evaluated on the quality of his or her sensitive behavior, such as responsiveness and emotional availability. Parents were first instructed how to administer different tasks to their child that included: teaching a novel word, demonstrating an "irrational" means of putting a dog inside a toy house through the chimney instead of the door, and appearing in need of help. The parent-child dyad was then observed during a 10-min period and the parent's level of responsiveness and availability was subsequently coded from this interaction. Finally, children were examined as to whether they learned a novel word, imitated, and helped their caregiver. It was observed that toddlers learned novel words better from an emotionally reliable primary caregiver. In addition, higher parental responsiveness and availability predicted better imitation in older children and higher levels of helping in girls. Taken together, these findings are the first to suggest that the emotional reliability of a familiar model, such as a parent's sensitive nature and consistent responsiveness, influences young children's willingness to learn and help.

  3. Reliable Estimation of Prediction Uncertainty for Physicochemical Property Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proppe, Jonny; Reiher, Markus

    2017-07-11

    One of the major challenges in computational science is to determine the uncertainty of a virtual measurement, that is the prediction of an observable based on calculations. As highly accurate first-principles calculations are in general unfeasible for most physical systems, one usually resorts to parameteric property models of observables, which require calibration by incorporating reference data. The resulting predictions and their uncertainties are sensitive to systematic errors such as inconsistent reference data, parametric model assumptions, or inadequate computational methods. Here, we discuss the calibration of property models in the light of bootstrapping, a sampling method that can be employed for identifying systematic errors and for reliable estimation of the prediction uncertainty. We apply bootstrapping to assess a linear property model linking the (57)Fe Mössbauer isomer shift to the contact electron density at the iron nucleus for a diverse set of 44 molecular iron compounds. The contact electron density is calculated with 12 density functionals across Jacob's ladder (PWLDA, BP86, BLYP, PW91, PBE, M06-L, TPSS, B3LYP, B3PW91, PBE0, M06, TPSSh). We provide systematic-error diagnostics and reliable, locally resolved uncertainties for isomer-shift predictions. Pure and hybrid density functionals yield average prediction uncertainties of 0.06-0.08 mm s(-1) and 0.04-0.05 mm s(-1), respectively, the latter being close to the average experimental uncertainty of 0.02 mm s(-1). Furthermore, we show that both model parameters and prediction uncertainty depend significantly on the composition and number of reference data points. Accordingly, we suggest that rankings of density functionals based on performance measures (e.g., the squared coefficient of correlation, r(2), or the root-mean-square error, RMSE) should not be inferred from a single data set. This study presents the first statistically rigorous calibration analysis for theoretical M

  4. Predicting the Reliability of Drug-target Interaction Predictions with Maximum Coverage of Target Space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peón, Antonio; Naulaerts, Stefan; Ballester, Pedro J

    2017-06-19

    Many computational methods to predict the macromolecular targets of small organic molecules have been presented to date. Despite progress, target prediction methods still have important limitations. For example, the most accurate methods implicitly restrict their predictions to a relatively small number of targets, are not systematically validated on drugs (whose targets are harder to predict than those of non-drug molecules) and often lack a reliability score associated with each predicted target. Here we present a systematic validation of ligand-centric target prediction methods on a set of clinical drugs. These methods exploit a knowledge-base covering 887,435 known ligand-target associations between 504,755 molecules and 4,167 targets. Based on this dataset, we provide a new estimate of the polypharmacology of drugs, which on average have 11.5 targets below IC50 10 µM. The average performance achieved across clinical drugs is remarkable (0.348 precision and 0.423 recall, with large drug-dependent variability), especially given the unusually large coverage of the target space. Furthermore, we show how a sparse ligand-target bioactivity matrix to retrospectively validate target prediction methods could underestimate prospective performance. Lastly, we present and validate a first-in-kind score capable of accurately predicting the reliability of target predictions.

  5. Predicting methylphenidate response in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Blair A; Coghill, David; Matthews, Keith; Steele, J Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Methylphenidate (MPH) is established as the main pharmacological treatment for patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Whilst MPH is generally a highly effective treatment, not all patients respond, and some experience adverse reactions. Currently, there is no reliable method to predict how patients will respond, other than by exposure to a trial of medication. In this preliminary study, we sought to investigate whether an accurate predictor of clinical response to methylphenidate could be developed for individual patients, using sociodemographic, clinical and neuropsychological measures. Of the 43 boys with ADHD included in this proof-of-concept study, 30 were classed as responders and 13 as non-responders to MPH, with no significant differences in age nor verbal intelligence quotient (IQ) between the groups. Here we report the application of a multivariate analysis approach to the prediction of clinical response to MPH, which achieved an accuracy of 77% (p = 0.005). The most important variables to the classifier were performance on a 'go/no go' task and comorbid conduct disorder. This preliminary study suggested that further investigation is merited. Achieving a highly significant accuracy of 77% for the prediction of MPH response is an encouraging step towards finding a reliable and clinically useful method that could minimise the number of children needlessly being exposed to MPH. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Compulsive sexual behavior inventory: a preliminary study of reliability and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, E; Miner, M; Ohlerking, F; Raymond, N

    2001-01-01

    This preliminary study was designed to develop empirically a scale of compulsive sexual behavior (CSB) and to test its reliability and validity in a sample of individuals with nonparaphilic CSB (N = 15), in a sample of pedophiles (N = 35) in treatment for sexual offending, and in a sample of normal controls (N = 42). Following a factor analysis and a varimax rotation, those items with factor loadings on the rotated factors of greater than .60 were retained. Three factors were identified, which appeared to measure control, abuse, and violence. Cronbach's alphas indicated that the subscales have good reliability. The 28-item scale was then tested for validity by a linear discriminant function analysis. The scale successfully discriminated the nonparaphilic CSB sample and the pedophiles from controls. Further analysis indicated that this scale is a valid measure of CSB in that there were significant differences between the three groups on the control subscale. Pedophiles scored significantly lower than the other two groups on the abuse subscale, with the other two groups not scoring significantly differently from one another. This indicated that pedophiles were more abusive than the nonparaphilic CSB individuals or the controls. Pedophiles scored significantly lower than controls on the violence subscale. Nonparaphilic individuals with compulsive sexual behavior scored slightly lower on the violence subscale, although not significantly different. As a preliminary study, there are several limitations to this study, which should be addressed, in further studies with larger sample sizes.

  7. Aircraft systems design methodology and dispatch reliability prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Bineid, Mansour

    2005-01-01

    Aircraft despatch reliability was the main subject of this research in the wider content of aircraft reliability. The factors effecting dispatch reliability, aircraft delay, causes of aircraft delays, and aircraft delay costs and magnitudes were examined. Delay cost elements and aircraft delay scenarios were also studied. It concluded that aircraft dispatch reliability is affected by technical and non-technical factors, and that the former are under the designer's control. It showed that ...

  8. Aircraft systems design methodology and dispatch reliability prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Bineid, Mansour

    2005-01-01

    Aircraft despatch reliability was the main subject of this research in the wider content of aircraft reliability. The factors effecting dispatch reliability, aircraft delay, causes of aircraft delays, and aircraft delay costs and magnitudes were examined. Delay cost elements and aircraft delay scenarios were also studied. It concluded that aircraft dispatch reliability is affected by technical and non-technical factors, and that the former are under the designer's control. It showed that ...

  9. Preliminary investigation on reliability of genomic estimated breeding values in the Danish and Swedish Holstein Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Su, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Gregersen, V R

    2010-01-01

    were available. In the analysis, all SNP were fitted simultaneously as random effects in a Bayesian variable selection model, which allows heterogeneous variances for different SNP markers. The response variables were the official EBV. Direct GEBV were calculated as the sum of individual SNP effects...... for all 18 index traits. Reliability of GEBV was assessed by squared correlation between GEBV and conventional EBV (r2GEBV, EBV), and expected reliability was obtained from prediction error variance using a 5-fold cross validation. Squared correlations between GEBV and published EBV (without any...... that genomic selection can greatly improve the accuracy of preselection for young bulls compared with traditional selection based on parent average information....

  10. Preliminary inter-rater reliability of the wheelchair components questionnaire for condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rispin, Karen; DiFrancesco, John; Raymond, Lawrence A; Riseling, Kristopher; Wee, Joy

    2017-07-07

    The Wheelchair Components Questionnaire for Condition (WCQ-C) enables the collection of data on wheelchair maintenance condition and durability in resource-limited environments. It can be used in large studies to indicate typical patterns of wear at a location, or for a type of wheelchair. It can also be used in clinical settings as an evidence based indication that a wheelchair may need repair or replacement. This type of data can enable effective use of limited funds by wheelchair providers, manufacturers and users. The goal of this study was to investigate the inter-rater reliability of the WCQ-C. Two therapists from North America who have worked extensively in low-resource areas used the WCQ-C to independently evaluate 46 wheelchairs at a primary school for children with disabilities in Kenya. Mean scores of ratings for each wheelchair by the two raters were used to calculate a two-way random interclass correlation coefficient. A value of 0.82 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.67-0.89 indicated good preliminary reliability. Preliminary results indicate that the WCQ-C is a reliable method of assessment. Additional studies are needed with larger and more diverse groups of raters. Because WCQ-C findings are specific to wheelchair wear and maintenance at each location, studies at other locations are also needed. Implications for rehabilitation The importance of inter-rater reliability testing in confirming the reliability of an assessment tool such as the WCQ-C. The use of the WCQ-C to monitor wheelchair condition in low-resource settings and other field settings. If used at regular interval can produce data that can be used to describe typical changes over time at each individual setting. This could enable proactive planning at that setting to avoid typical breakdowns and the injuries or clinical complications that could result. The use of the WCQ-C to monitor the condition of groups of wheelchairs of the same type. It can describe typical patterns of wear and

  11. Reliability of the Filipino version of the Parent Satisfaction Scale: A preliminary study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yves Y. Palad, MSPH

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Parent satisfaction is vital in improving the delivery of paediatric health care. However, there are no linguistically appropriate instruments that measure parent satisfaction among Filipino parents of children receiving occupational therapy, physical therapy, and speech pathology services. This study aimed to provide preliminary information about the reliability of the Filipino version of the Parent Satisfaction Scale (F-PSS. Research procedures included forward- and backward-translation of the PSS, cognitive interview, and data collection for reliability. These were conducted on primary caregivers of children who were receiving therapy services in a local clinic. Internal consistency and reproducibility of the translated tool were determined. Internal consistency was measured using an ordinal α value based on a polychoric correlation matrix, reproducibility using Randolph's κ, and standard error of measurement (SEM. Data analysis showed an ordinal α value of 0.96, κ values ranging from 0.56 to 0.72, and a standard error of measurement of 0.11. In summary, the F-PSS has excellent internal consistency, moderate to substantial agreement after repeated measures, and excellent absolute reliability for determining parent satisfaction in paediatric health care. Supplementary studies on its validity are needed to further ascertain its clinical utility.

  12. An Approach to Online Reliability Evaluation and Prediction of Mechanical Transmission Components

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Matthias Maisch; Bernd Bertsche; Ralf Hettich

    2006-01-01

    New development trends in electronic operating data logging systems enable classification, recording and storage of load spectrums of mechanical transmission components during usage. Based on this fact, the application of online reliability evaluation and reliability prediction procedures are presented. Different methods are considered to calculate reliability, depending on actual load spectrum and a Wohler curve. The prediction of a reliability trend is analyzed by the application of time series models. For this purpose, exponential smoothing model, regression model, and the ARIMA model are considered to evaluate data and predict an decreasing reliability trends during usage.

  13. Preliminary reliability and internal consistency of the Wheelchair Components Questionnaire for Condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rispin, Karen; Dittmer, Melanie; McLean, Jessica; Wee, Joy

    2017-11-01

    Wheelchair durability and maintenance condition are key factors of wheelchair function. Durability studies done with double drum and drop testers, although valuable, do not perfectly imitate conditions of use. Durability may be harvested from clinical records; however, these may be inconsistent because protocols for recording information differ from place to place. Wheelchair professionals with several years of experience often develop a good eye for wheelchair maintenance condition. The Wheelchair Components Questionnaire for Condition (WCQc) was developed as a professional report questionnaire to provide data specifically on the maintenance condition of a wheelchair. The goal of this study was to obtain preliminary test-retest reliability and internal consistency for the WCQc. Participants were a convenience sample of wheelchair professionals who self-reported more than two years' of wheelchair experience, and completed the WCQc on the same wheelchair twice. Results indicated preliminary reliability and internal consistency for domain related questions and the entire questionnaire. Implications for rehabilitation The WCQc, if administered routinely at regular intervals, can be used to monitor wheelchair condition and alert users and health professionals about the need for repair or replacement. The WCQc is not difficult to use, making early monitoring for wear or damage more feasible. The earlier a tool can detect need for maintenance, the higher likelihood that appropriate measures may be employed in a timely fashion to maximize the overall durability of wheelchairs and minimize clinical complications. Keeping wheelchairs appropriately maintained allows users to minimize effort expended when using them, and maximize their function. It also lowers the risk of injury due to component failure. When assessing groups of similar wheelchairs, organizations involved in funding wheelchairs can use data from the WCQc to make purchase decisions based on durability, and

  14. Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a reliability-based prediction methodology to obtain the remaining useful life of composite materials subjected to fatigue degradation....

  15. Waste Feed Delivery System Phase 1 Preliminary Reliability and Availability and Maintainability Analysis [SEC 1 and 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CARLSON, A.B.

    1999-11-11

    The document presents updated results of the preliminary reliability, availability, maintainability analysis performed for delivery of waste feed from tanks 241-AZ-101 and 241-AN-105 to British Nuclear Fuels Limited, inc. under the Tank Waste Remediation System Privatization Contract. The operational schedule delay risk is estimated and contributing factors are discussed.

  16. Using PoF models to predict system reliability considering failure collaboration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiguo Zeng

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Existing Physics-of-Failure-based (PoF-based system reliability prediction methods are grounded on the independence assumption, which overlooks the dependency among the components. In this paper, a new type of dependency, referred to as failure collaboration, is introduced and considered in reliability predictions. A PoF-based model is developed to describe the failure behavior of systems subject to failure collaboration. Based on the developed model, the Bisection-based Reliability Analysis Method (BRAM is exploited to calculate the system reliability. The developed methods are applied to predicting the reliability of a Hydraulic Servo Actuator (HSA. The results demonstrate that the developed methods outperform the traditional PoF-based reliability prediction methods when applied to systems subject to failure collaboration.

  17. Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

    CERN Document Server

    El Hami, Abdelkhalak

    2015-01-01

    In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

  18. A common reference population from four European Holstein populations increases reliability of genomic predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens Sandø; de Ross, Sander PW; de Vries, Alfred G

    2011-01-01

    Background Size of the reference population and reliability of phenotypes are crucial factors influencing the reliability of genomic predictions. It is therefore useful to combine closely related populations. Increased accuracies of genomic predictions depend on the number of individuals added to...

  19. A common reference population from four European Holstein populations increases reliability of genomic predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens Sandø; de Ross, Sander PW; de Vries, Alfred G

    2011-01-01

    Background Size of the reference population and reliability of phenotypes are crucial factors influencing the reliability of genomic predictions. It is therefore useful to combine closely related populations. Increased accuracies of genomic predictions depend on the number of individuals added to...

  20. Engineering Design Handbook: Development Guide for Reliability. Part Three. Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    to t is pa(t)=l-qa(t) (10-6) This is the reliability of being closed, defined for this interval. 2 The probability that a contact viH be open...a computer. Thus, most of this chapter is written with computers in mind. Comput- er- aided design techniques offer the engineer relief firm

  1. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the reliabili

  2. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

  3. Aircraft conceptual design modelling incorporating reliability and maintainability predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Vaziry-Zanjany , Mohammad Ali (F)

    1996-01-01

    A computer assisted conceptual aircraft design program has been developed (CACAD). It has an optimisation capability, with extensive break-down in maintenance costs. CACAD's aim is to optimise the size, and configurations of turbofan-powered transport aircraft. A methodology was developed to enhance the reliability of current aircraft systems, and was applied to avionics systems. R&M models of thermal management were developed and linked with avionics failure rate and its ma...

  4. The reliability and validity of questionnaire for preliminary assessment of heat stress at workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habibollah Dehghan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Heat stress is one of the most important consequences of occupational heat exposure in worldwide. Current heat stress indices are not suitable for heat strain screening in developing countries due to their inherent and applied limitations. The Aim of this study was design, validity and reliability of a questionnaire method entitled "Heat Strain Score Index" or HSSI for preliminary assessment of heat stress at workplace. Material and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during 2009-2010. This research included seven stages (i Item generation (ii Evaluation of content validity by 9 subjects of occupational health specialists and 30 occupational health providers (iii Reliability analysis was performed on 98 workers (iv Structure validity was conducted on 150 workers (v Test of the measurement model (vi Criteria validity on 122 worker and (vii classification of level thermal risk with ROC curves. Data were analyzed with SPSS-18 and AMOS-16 software. Results: In stage of item generation 40 items were identified. In Content Validity evaluation in the level of occupational health specialists, 27 items modified, 3 items were removed and 3 items added in evaluation by occupational health providers, 19 items modified. Internal consistency (α of items was 0.91. Exploratory factor analysis on items HSSI scale identified four subscales which explained 71.6% of the variance. Confirmatory factor analysis provides evidence of model fits (GFI=0.991, RMSEA=0.036. Correlation between the HSSI score with aural temperature was 0.73.Cut-off point, sensitivity and specificity for upper green zone (no thermal strain were 13.5, 91% and 50%.whereas Cut-off point, sensitivity and specificity for lower red zone (thermal strain were 18, 86% and 73%. Conclusion: This study revealed HSSI scale includes 18 of measurable variables that high overlapped with WBGT index and others questionnaires. This scale demonstrated high reliability and validity

  5. The PedsQL™ Present Functioning Visual Analogue Scales: preliminary reliability and validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varni James W

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The PedsQL™ Present Functioning Visual Analogue Scales (PedsQL™ VAS were designed as an ecological momentary assessment (EMA instrument to rapidly measure present or at-the-moment functioning in children and adolescents. The PedsQL™ VAS assess child self-report and parent-proxy report of anxiety, sadness, anger, worry, fatigue, and pain utilizing six developmentally appropriate visual analogue scales based on the well-established Varni/Thompson Pediatric Pain Questionnaire (PPQ Pain Intensity VAS format. Methods The six-item PedsQL™ VAS was administered to 70 pediatric patients ages 5–17 and their parents upon admittance to the hospital environment (Time 1: T1 and again two hours later (Time 2: T2. It was hypothesized that the PedsQL™ VAS Emotional Distress Summary Score (anxiety, sadness, anger, worry and the fatigue VAS would demonstrate moderate to large effect size correlations with the PPQ Pain Intensity VAS, and that patient" parent concordance would increase over time. Results Test-retest reliability was demonstrated from T1 to T2 in the large effect size range. Internal consistency reliability was demonstrated for the PedsQL™ VAS Total Symptom Score (patient self-report: T1 alpha = .72, T2 alpha = .80; parent proxy-report: T1 alpha = .80, T2 alpha = .84 and Emotional Distress Summary Score (patient self-report: T1 alpha = .74, T2 alpha = .73; parent proxy-report: T1 alpha = .76, T2 alpha = .81. As hypothesized, the Emotional Distress Summary Score and Fatigue VAS were significantly correlated with the PPQ Pain VAS in the medium to large effect size range, and patient and parent concordance increased from T1 to T2. Conclusion The results demonstrate preliminary test-retest and internal consistency reliability and construct validity of the PedsQL™ Present Functioning VAS instrument for both pediatric patient self-report and parent proxy-report. Further field testing is required to extend these initial

  6. Reliability prediction for structures under cyclic loads and recurring inspections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto W. S. Mello Jr

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a methodology for determining the reliability of fracture control plans for structures subjected to cyclic loads. It considers the variability of the parameters involved in the problem, such as initial flaw and crack growth curve. The probability of detection (POD curve of the field non-destructive inspection method and the condition/environment are used as important factors for structural confidence. According to classical damage tolerance analysis (DTA, inspection intervals are based on detectable crack size and crack growth rate. However, all variables have uncertainties, which makes the final result totally stochastic. The material properties, flight loads, engineering tools and even the reliability of inspection methods are subject to uncertainties which can affect significantly the final maintenance schedule. The present methodology incorporates all the uncertainties in a simulation process, such as Monte Carlo, and establishes a relationship between the reliability of the overall maintenance program and the proposed inspection interval, forming a “cascade” chart. Due to the scatter, it also defines the confidence level of the “acceptable” risk. As an example, the damage tolerance analysis (DTA results are presented for the upper cockpit longeron splice bolt of the BAF upgraded F-5EM. In this case, two possibilities of inspection intervals were found: one that can be characterized as remote risk, with a probability of failure (integrity nonsuccess of 1 in 10 million, per flight hour; and other as extremely improbable, with a probability of nonsuccess of 1 in 1 billion, per flight hour, according to aviation standards. These two results are compared with the classical military airplane damage tolerance requirements.

  7. Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2015-01-01

    The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... will decline. These levels of confidence seem unwarranted, since many processes are either absent from or poorly represented in the models used, data are sparse and, unlike terrestrial crop projections, there are no controlled experiments.This review discusses methodological issues that affect our...

  8. Predicting the reliability of polyisobutylene seal for photovoltaic application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hua; Feng, Jie; Nicoli, Edoardo; López, Leonardo; Kauffmann, Keith; Yang, Kwanho; Ramesh, Narayan

    2012-10-01

    Polyisobutylene (PIB) or butyl rubber has been used widely in applications such as construction materials, adhesives and sealants, agricultural chemicals, medical devices, personal care products, and fuel additives. Due to the unique low gas permeability, flexibility, and excellent weathering resistance, PIB or PIB based materials are frequently employed in photovoltaic (PV) industry as sealant to protect the electrical assembly in the package as well as moisture sensitive PV cells from aggressive environments. Long term behavior of the PIB sealant within the operating temperature range of the PV devices thus becomes a critical factor to the reliability of the device. In this paper, an experimental study of the temperature dependent fatigue behavior of a PIB based joint is presented. A finite element model capturing the joint region geometry is developed and an approach to estimate lifetime is proposed.

  9. The Reliability to Predict Threat in Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandrs Larionovs

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available During the analysis and study it will be possible to create and describe information damping mechanism for transition of threats from one user group to another (within the parameters of portraits, which is the main cause of the massively spreading threat on social networks. Threat predictability in social networks is associated with an adequate scrutiny of system and user portrait, which has a direct correlation.

  10. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Bent; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl; Andersen, Pernille

    2009-01-01

    the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output. CONCLUSION...

  11. Reliability analysis method applied in slope stability: slope prediction and forecast on stability analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenjuan ZHANG; Li CHEN; Ning QU; Hai'an LIANG

    2006-01-01

    Landslide is one kind of geologic hazards that often happens all over the world. It brings huge losses to human life and property; therefore, it is very important to research it. This study focused in combination between single and regional landslide, traditional slope stability analysis method and reliability analysis method. Meanwhile, methods of prediction of slopes and reliability analysis were discussed.

  12. Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J

    2000-09-01

    Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction.

  13. AN IMPROVED FUZZY MODEL TO PREDICT SOFTWARE RELIABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepika Chawla

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Software faults are one of major criteria to estimate the software quality or the software reliability. There are number of matrices defined that uses the software faults to estimate the software quality. But when we have a large software system with thousands of class modules, in such case it is not easy to apply the software matrices on each module of software system. The present work isthe solution of the defined problem. In this work software quality is estimated by using the rejection method on software faults. The rejection method is applied on the basis on Fuzzy Logic in a softwaresystem. To perform the analysis in an effective way the weightage approach is used on the software faults. In this work we have assigned different weightage on software faults to categorize the faults respective to fault criticality and the frequency. Once the faults are categorized the next work is the implementation of proposed work software fault to represents the accepted and rejectedmodules from the software system. The obtained result shows the better visualization of software quality in case of software fault analysis.

  14. A reliable procedure to predict salt precipitation in pure phases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. S. O. Beltrão

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes a new procedure to compute solid-liquid equilibrium in electrolyte systems that may form pure solid phases at a given temperature, pressure, and global composition. The procedure combines three sub-procedures: phase stability test, minimization of the Gibbs free energy with a stoichiometric formulation of the salt-forming reactions to compute phase splitting, and a phase elimination test. After the phase splitting calculation for a system configuration that has a certain number of phases, the phase stability test establishes whether including an additional phase will reduce the Gibbs free energy further. The criteria used for phase stability may lead, in some cases, to the premature inclusion of phases that should be absent from the final solution but, if this happens, the phase elimination sub-procedure removes them. It is possible to use the procedure with several excess Gibbs free energy models for liquid phase behavior. The procedure has proven to be reliable and fast and the results are in good agreement with literature data.

  15. Supporting change processes in design: Complexity, prediction and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert, Claudia M. [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: cme26@cam.ac.uk; Keller, Rene [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: rk313@cam.ac.uk; Earl, Chris [Open University, Department of Design and Innovation, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: C.F.Earl@open.ac.uk; Clarkson, P. John [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: pjc10@cam.ac.uk

    2006-12-15

    Change to existing products is fundamental to design processes. New products are often designed through change or modification to existing products. Specific parts or subsystems are changed to similar ones whilst others are directly reused. Design by modification applies particularly to safety critical products where the reuse of existing working parts and subsystems can reduce cost and risk. However change is rarely a matter of just reusing or modifying parts. Changing one part can propagate through the entire design leading to costly rework or jeopardising the integrity of the whole product. This paper characterises product change based on studies in the aerospace and automotive industry and introduces tools to aid designers in understanding the potential effects of change. Two ways of supporting designers are described: probabilistic prediction of the effects of change and visualisation of change propagation through product connectivities. Change propagation has uncertainties which are amplified by the choices designers make in practice as they implement change. Change prediction and visualisation is discussed with reference to complexity in three areas of product development: the structural backcloth of connectivities in the existing product (and its processes), the descriptions of the product used in design and the actions taken to carry out changes.

  16. A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Morten

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of the reliability of specific real value predictions is nontrivial and the efficacy of this is often questionable. It is important to know if you can trust a given prediction and therefore the best methods associate a prediction with a reliability score or index. For discrete qualitative predictions, the reliability is conventionally estimated as the difference between output scores of selected classes. Such an approach is not feasible for methods that predict a biological feature as a single real value rather than a classification. As a solution to this challenge, we have implemented a method that predicts the relative surface accessibility of an amino acid and simultaneously predicts the reliability for each prediction, in the form of a Z-score. Results An ensemble of artificial neural networks has been trained on a set of experimentally solved protein structures to predict the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output. Conclusion The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability score with the individual predictions. However, our implementation of reliability scores in the form of a Z-score is shown to be the more informative measure for discriminating good predictions from bad ones in the entire range from completely buried to fully exposed amino acids. This is evident when comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0

  17. Towards early software reliability prediction for computer forensic tools (case study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu Talib, Manar

    2016-01-01

    Versatility, flexibility and robustness are essential requirements for software forensic tools. Researchers and practitioners need to put more effort into assessing this type of tool. A Markov model is a robust means for analyzing and anticipating the functioning of an advanced component based system. It is used, for instance, to analyze the reliability of the state machines of real time reactive systems. This research extends the architecture-based software reliability prediction model for computer forensic tools, which is based on Markov chains and COSMIC-FFP. Basically, every part of the computer forensic tool is linked to a discrete time Markov chain. If this can be done, then a probabilistic analysis by Markov chains can be performed to analyze the reliability of the components and of the whole tool. The purposes of the proposed reliability assessment method are to evaluate the tool's reliability in the early phases of its development, to improve the reliability assessment process for large computer forensic tools over time, and to compare alternative tool designs. The reliability analysis can assist designers in choosing the most reliable topology for the components, which can maximize the reliability of the tool and meet the expected reliability level specified by the end-user. The approach of assessing component-based tool reliability in the COSMIC-FFP context is illustrated with the Forensic Toolkit Imager case study.

  18. Performance Reliability Prediction of Complex System Based on the Condition Monitoring Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxing Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex system performance reliability prediction is one of the means to understand complex systems reliability level, make maintenance decision, and guarantee the safety of operation. By the use of complex system condition monitoring information and condition monitoring information based on support vector machine, the paper aims to provide an evaluation of the degradation of complex system performance. With degradation assessment results as input variables, the prediction model of reliability is established in Winer random process. Taking the aircraft engine as an example, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in the paper.

  19. The Japanese version of the 2010 American College of Rheumatology Preliminary Diagnostic Criteria for Fibromyalgia and the Fibromyalgia Symptom Scale: reliability and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usui, Chie; Hatta, Kotaro; Aratani, Satoko; Yagishita, Naoko; Nishioka, Kenya; Kanazawa, Teruhisa; Ito, Kenji; Yamano, Yoshihisa; Nakamura, Hiroyuki; Nakajima, Toshihiro; Nishioka, Kusuki

    2012-02-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the reliability and the validity of the Japanese version of the 2010 American College of Rheumatology Preliminary Diagnostic Criteria for Fibromyalgia (ACR 2010-J), and its quantification scale, the Fibromyalgia Symptom Scale (FS-J). In this study, we divided patients with chronic pain without psychiatric disorders other than depression into two groups according to the 1990 ACR Diagnostic Criteria for Fibromyalgia, a fibromyalgia group and a non-fibromyalgia group (rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, and gout). Patients in both groups were assessed using the ACR 2010-J and FS-J. Seventy-seven of 94 (82%) patients in the fibromyalgia group met the ACR 2010-J, whereas 9% (4/43) of the non-fibromyalgia group did so, with a sensitivity of 82%, specificity of 91%, positive predictive value of 95%, negative predictive value of 70%, and positive likelihood ratio of 8.8. Mean total scores on the FS-J significantly differentiated the fibromyalgia from the non-fibromyalgia group. The scale had high inter-rater reliability and high internal consistency. With a cutoff score of 10, the positive likelihood ratio was 10.1. Our findings indicate that the ACR 2010-J and FS-J have high reliability and validity, and are useful for assessing fibromyalgia in Japanese populations with chronic pain. As regards the positive likelihood ratio, that of the FS-J might be suitable as a positive test.

  20. The Antipsychotics and Sexual Functioning Questionnaire (ASFQ) : Preliminary evidence for reliability and validity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, M.K.; Castelein, Stynke; Bous, Johan; van den Heuvel, Edwin R.; Wiersma, Durk; Schoevers, Robert A.; Knegtering, Henderikus

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to describe the psychometric properties of the Antipsychotics and Sexual Functioning Questionnaire (ASFQ). Internal reliability, test-retest reliability, inter-rater reliability, validity and sensitivity to change were calculated in a sample of 30 patients with schizophrenia

  1. The Antipsychotics and Sexual Functioning Questionnaire (ASFQ) : preliminary evidence for reliability and validity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Marrit K; Castelein, Stynke; Bous, Johan; van den Heuvel, Edwin R; Wiersma, Durk; Schoevers, Robert A; Knegtering, Henderikus

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to describe the psychometric properties of the Antipsychotics and Sexual Functioning Questionnaire (ASFQ). Internal reliability, test-retest reliability, inter-rater reliability, validity and sensitivity to change were calculated in a sample of 30 patients with schizophrenia

  2. Electromagnetic Model Reliably Predicts Radar Scattering Characteristics of Airborne Organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirkovic, Djordje; Stepanian, Phillip M.; Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Chilson, Phillip B.

    2016-10-01

    The radar scattering characteristics of aerial animals are typically obtained from controlled laboratory measurements of a freshly harvested specimen. These measurements are tedious to perform, difficult to replicate, and typically yield only a small subset of the full azimuthal, elevational, and polarimetric radio scattering data. As an alternative, biological applications of radar often assume that the radar cross sections of flying animals are isotropic, since sophisticated computer models are required to estimate the 3D scattering properties of objects having complex shapes. Using the method of moments implemented in the WIPL-D software package, we show for the first time that such electromagnetic modeling techniques (typically applied to man-made objects) can accurately predict organismal radio scattering characteristics from an anatomical model: here the Brazilian free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis). The simulated scattering properties of the bat agree with controlled measurements and radar observations made during a field study of bats in flight. This numerical technique can produce the full angular set of quantitative polarimetric scattering characteristics, while eliminating many practical difficulties associated with physical measurements. Such a modeling framework can be applied for bird, bat, and insect species, and will help drive a shift in radar biology from a largely qualitative and phenomenological science toward quantitative estimation of animal densities and taxonomic identification.

  3. Theory of Economic Life Prediction and Reliability Assessment of Aircraft Structures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Chuliang; LIU Kege

    2011-01-01

    The theory of economic life prediction and reliability assessment of aircraft structures has a significant effect on safety of aircraft structures.It is based on the two-stage theory of fatigue process and can guarantee the safety and reliability of structures.According to the fatigue damage process, the fatigue scatter factors of crack initiation stage and crack propagation stage are given respectively.At the same time, mathematical models of fatigue life prediction are presented by utilizing the fatigue scatter factors and full scale test results of aircraft structures.Furthermore, the economic life model is put forward.The model is of significant scientific value for products to provide longer economic life, higher reliability and lower cost.The theory of economic life prediction and reliability assessment of aircraft structures has been successfully applied to determining and extending the structural life for thousands of airplanes.

  4. Preliminary Reliability and Validity of the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for Schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gearon, Jean S.; Bellack, Alan S.; Tenhula, Wendy N.

    2004-01-01

    This study provides preliminary psychometric support for a version of the Clinician-Administered Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Scale (CAPS; D. D. Blake et al., 1990) adapted for use with patients with schizophrenia (CAPS-S; J. S. Gearon. S. Thomas-Lohrman, & A. S. Bellack, 2001). Nineteen women with schizophrenia and co-occurring illicit…

  5. Reliability estimation and remaining useful lifetime prediction for bearing based on proportional hazard model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王鹭; 张利; 王学芝

    2015-01-01

    As the central component of rotating machine, the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability. A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of bearings was proposed, consisting of three phases. Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis (feature selection step). Time series analysis based on neural network, as an identification model, was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons (feature prediction step). Furthermore, according to the features, degradation factor was defined. The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing (RUL prediction step). The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction.

  6. Reliability of computerized cephalometric outcome predictions of mandibular set-back surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanović Neda

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A successful treatment outcome in dentofacial deformity patients commonly requires combined orthodontic-surgical therapy. This enables us to overcome functional, aesthetic and psychological problems. Since most patients state aesthetics as the primary motive for seeking therapy, cephalometric predictions of treatment outcome have become the essential part of treatment planning, especially in combined orthodontic-surgical cases. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of computerized orthognathic surgery outcome predictions generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software. Methods. The sample of the study consisted of 31 patients diagnosed with mandibular prognathism who were surgically treated at the Hospital for Maxillofacial Surgery in Belgrade. Investigation was done on lateral cephalograms made before and after surgical treatment. Cephalograms were digitized and analyzed using computer software. According to measurements made on superimposed pre- and postsurgical cephalograms, the patients were retreated within the software and the predictions were assessed by measuring seven angular and three linear parameters. Prediction measurements were then compared with the actual outcome. Results. Results showed statistically significant changes between posttreatment and predicted values for parameters referring to lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position. Conclusion. Computerized cephalometric predictions for hard-tissue structures in the sagittal and vertical planes, as well as the VTO parameters, generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software are reliable, while lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position predictions are not reliable enough.

  7. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

  8. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikabdullah, N. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); K, Elwaleed A. [Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Noorani, M. S. M. [School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

  9. Reliability and validity of 6MWT for outpatients with schizophrenia: A preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Eluana; Bastos, Tânia; Probst, Michel; Ribeiro, José Carlos; Silva, Gustavo; Corredeira, Rui

    2016-03-30

    Although the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) has been widely used in patients with schizophrenia, there is a lack of scientific evidence about its reliability and validity in this population. The first goal of this study was to explore the test-retest reliability of the 6MWT and to identify the associated parameters that contribute to the variability of the distance walked during the 6MWT in outpatients with schizophrenia. The second goal was to assess the criterion validity of the 6MWT in men with schizophrenia. Fifty one outpatients with schizophrenia participated in the study. To test-retest reliability (men=39; women=12), participants performed the 6MWT twice within 3 days interval. To test criterion validity (men=13), peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) was measured on a treadmill. For the associated parameters with the distance walked (n=51), medications use, smoking behavior, body and bone composition, and physical activity levels were analyzed. No significant differences between the means of the two 6MWTs were found. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.94 indicating good reliability. 6MWT correlated significantly with VO2peak (r=0.67) indicating criterion validity. Height, body fat mass, smoking behavior and minutes of PA/week were significantly associated with the 6MWT. Results suggest that 6MWT shows good reliability for individuals with schizophrenia and good validity for the small sample of male participants in this study.

  10. Real-time reliability prediction for dynamic systems with both deteriorating and unreliable components

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU ZhengGuo; JI YinDong; ZHOU DongHua

    2009-01-01

    As an important technology for predictive maintenance,failure prognosis has attracted more and more attentions in recent years.Real-time reliability prediction is one effective solution to failure prognosis.Considering a dynamic system that is composed of normal,deteriorating and unreliable components,this paper proposes an integrated approach to perform real-time reliability prediction for such a class of systems.For s deteriorating component,the degradation is modeled by a time-varying fault process which is a linear or approximately linear function of time.The behavior of an unreliable component is described by a random variable which has two possible values corresponding to the operating and malfunction conditions of this component.The whole proposed approach contains three algorithms.A modified interacting multiple model particle filter is adopted to estimate the dynamic system's state variables and the unmeasurable time-varying fault.An exponential smoothing algorithm named the Holt's method is used to predict the fault process.In the end,the system's reliability is predicted in real time by use of the Monte Carlo strategy.The proposed approach can effectively predict the impending failure of a dynamic system,which is verified by computer simulations based on a three-vessel water tank system.

  11. Predictions of Crystal Structure Based on Radius Ratio: How Reliable Are They?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan, Lawrence C.

    1985-01-01

    Discussion of crystalline solids in undergraduate curricula often includes the use of radius ratio rules as a method for predicting which type of crystal structure is likely to be adopted by a given ionic compound. Examines this topic, establishing more definitive guidelines for the use and reliability of the rules. (JN)

  12. Technique for Early Reliability Prediction of Software Components Using Behaviour Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Awad; N. A. Jawawi, Dayang; Adham Isa, Mohd; Imran Babar, Muhammad

    2016-01-01

    Behaviour models are the most commonly used input for predicting the reliability of a software system at the early design stage. A component behaviour model reveals the structure and behaviour of the component during the execution of system-level functionalities. There are various challenges related to component reliability prediction at the early design stage based on behaviour models. For example, most of the current reliability techniques do not provide fine-grained sequential behaviour models of individual components and fail to consider the loop entry and exit points in the reliability computation. Moreover, some of the current techniques do not tackle the problem of operational data unavailability and the lack of analysis results that can be valuable for software architects at the early design stage. This paper proposes a reliability prediction technique that, pragmatically, synthesizes system behaviour in the form of a state machine, given a set of scenarios and corresponding constraints as input. The state machine is utilized as a base for generating the component-relevant operational data. The state machine is also used as a source for identifying the nodes and edges of a component probabilistic dependency graph (CPDG). Based on the CPDG, a stack-based algorithm is used to compute the reliability. The proposed technique is evaluated by a comparison with existing techniques and the application of sensitivity analysis to a robotic wheelchair system as a case study. The results indicate that the proposed technique is more relevant at the early design stage compared to existing works, and can provide a more realistic and meaningful prediction. PMID:27668748

  13. Technique for Early Reliability Prediction of Software Components Using Behaviour Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Awad; N A Jawawi, Dayang; Adham Isa, Mohd; Imran Babar, Muhammad

    Behaviour models are the most commonly used input for predicting the reliability of a software system at the early design stage. A component behaviour model reveals the structure and behaviour of the component during the execution of system-level functionalities. There are various challenges related to component reliability prediction at the early design stage based on behaviour models. For example, most of the current reliability techniques do not provide fine-grained sequential behaviour models of individual components and fail to consider the loop entry and exit points in the reliability computation. Moreover, some of the current techniques do not tackle the problem of operational data unavailability and the lack of analysis results that can be valuable for software architects at the early design stage. This paper proposes a reliability prediction technique that, pragmatically, synthesizes system behaviour in the form of a state machine, given a set of scenarios and corresponding constraints as input. The state machine is utilized as a base for generating the component-relevant operational data. The state machine is also used as a source for identifying the nodes and edges of a component probabilistic dependency graph (CPDG). Based on the CPDG, a stack-based algorithm is used to compute the reliability. The proposed technique is evaluated by a comparison with existing techniques and the application of sensitivity analysis to a robotic wheelchair system as a case study. The results indicate that the proposed technique is more relevant at the early design stage compared to existing works, and can provide a more realistic and meaningful prediction.

  14. Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik;

    2015-01-01

    provide probabilistic predictions of wastewater discharge in a similarly reliable way, both for periods ranging from a few hours up to more than 1 week ahead of time. The EBD produces more accurate predictions on long horizons but relies on computationally heavy MCMC routines for parameter inferences......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...

  15. Reliable Lifetime Prediction for Passivated Fiber Bragg Gratings for Telecommunication Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Lancry

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is dedicated to the lifetime prediction of Type I Fiber Bragg gratings (FBG and to problems that happen when stabilization (also called passivation conditions or the industrial conditioning procedure depart from ageing ones (e.g., presence of hydrogen during the passivation process. For the first time, a reliable procedure to certify the predicted lifetime based on a “restricted” master curve built on real components (i.e., passivated FBG is presented. It is worth noting that both procedures (master curve built on non-passivated or on passivated components are based on the same model (demarcation energy approximation and the existence of a master curve fed with ageing data (reflectivity decay vs. time and temperature. If the Master Curve (MC build on passivated components can be derived from the original one, we can certify the lifetime prediction in a reliable manner.

  16. Preliminary background prediction for the INTEGRAL x-ray monitor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feroci, M.; Costa, E.; Budtz-Joergensen, C.

    1996-01-01

    The JEM-X (joint European x-ray monitor) experiment will be flown onboard the ESA's INTEGRAL satellite. The instrumental background level of the two JEM-X twin detectors will depend on several parameters, among which the satellite orbit and mass distribution, and the detectors materials play...... rays with the spacecraft structures. This calculation has been carried out by means of a Monte Carlo simulation using the code MCNP. The background due to on- orbit material activation and to the primary cosmic rays direct interactions with the detecting medium has not been considered. The INTEGRAL...... satellite structure is only now being completely defined and the details of the instrument design are still under evolution. The present background estimation can therefore be only preliminary and based on some reasonable approximations on the radiation environment in which the INTEGRAL experiments...

  17. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  18. Wearable Lactate Threshold Predicting Device is Valid and Reliable in Runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Nattai R; Driller, Matthew W

    2016-08-01

    Borges, NR and Driller, MW. Wearable lactate threshold predicting device is valid and reliable in runners. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2212-2218, 2016-A commercially available device claiming to be the world's first wearable lactate threshold predicting device (WLT), using near-infrared LED technology, has entered the market. The aim of this study was to determine the levels of agreement between the WLT-derived lactate threshold workload and traditional methods of lactate threshold (LT) calculation and the interdevice and intradevice reliability of the WLT. Fourteen (7 male, 7 female; mean ± SD; age: 18-45 years, height: 169 ± 9 cm, mass: 67 ± 13 kg, V[Combining Dot Above]O2max: 53 ± 9 ml·kg·min) subjects ranging from recreationally active to highly trained athletes completed an incremental exercise test to exhaustion on a treadmill. Blood lactate samples were taken at the end of each 3-minute stage during the test to determine lactate threshold using 5 traditional methods from blood lactate analysis which were then compared against the WLT predicted value. In a subset of the population (n = 12), repeat trials were performed to determine both inter-reliability and intrareliability of the WLT device. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) found high to very high agreement between the WLT and traditional methods (ICC > 0.80), with TEMs and mean differences ranging between 3.9-10.2% and 1.3-9.4%. Both interdevice and intradevice reliability resulted in highly reproducible and comparable results (CV 0.97). This study suggests that the WLT is a practical, reliable, and noninvasive tool for use in predicting LT in runners.

  19. RELIABILITY OF THE ICD-10 INTERNATIONAL PERSONALITY DISORDER EXAMINATION (IPDE) (HINDI VERSION): A PRELIMINARY STUDY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharan, Pratap; Kulhara, P.; Verma, S.K.; Mohanty, Manju

    2002-01-01

    The study was aimed at estimating the joint-rater reliability and applicability of Hindi version of ICD-10 IPDE that was obtained following a standard translation protocol. The instrument was administered to 22 non-psychotic patients by two raters. The average intraclass correlation for each item (0.89), number of criteria met per disorder (0.92) and dimensional scores (0.98) was high. Kappa for definite (0.65-0.78) and probaole personality disorder (PD) (0.78-1.00) and for presence/absence of any PD (0.78) was acceptable. Overall weighted kappa was 0.81 for definite and 0.91 for probable PD. Findings suggest that ICD-10 IPDE (Hindi version) has acceptable joint- rater reliability and applicability in the North Indian Hindi speaking population. PMID:21206601

  20. The Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity Code (MITI 4): Rationale, Preliminary Reliability and Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyers, Theresa B; Rowell, Lauren N; Manuel, Jennifer K; Ernst, Denise; Houck, Jon M

    2016-06-01

    The Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity code has been revised to address new evidence-based elements of motivational interviewing (MI). This new version (MITI 4) includes new global ratings to assess clinician's attention to client language, increased rigor in assessing autonomy support and client choice, and items to evaluate the use of persuasion when giving information and advice. Four undergraduate, non-professional raters were trained in the MITI and used it to review 50 audiotapes of clinicians conducting MI in actual treatments sessions. Both kappa and intraclass correlation indices were calculated for all coders, for the best rater pair and for a 20% randomly selected sample from the best rater pair. Reliability across raters, with the exception of Emphasize Autonomy and % Complex Reflections, were in the good to excellent range. Reliability estimates decrease when smaller samples are used and when fewer raters contribute. The advantages and drawbacks of this revision are discussed including implications for research and clinical applications. The MITI 4.0 represents a reliable method for assessing the integrity of MI including both the technical and relational components of the method. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. A Structured Clinical Interview for Kleptomania (SCI-K): preliminary validity and reliability testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Jon E; Kim, Suck Won; McCabe, James S

    2006-06-01

    Kleptomania presents difficulties in diagnosis for clinicians. This study aimed to develop and test a DSM-IV-based diagnostic instrument for kleptomania. To assess for current kleptomania the Structured Clinical Interview for Kleptomania (SCI-K) was administered to 112 consecutive subjects requesting psychiatric outpatient treatment for a variety of disorders. Reliability and validity were determined. Classification accuracy was examined using the longitudinal course of illness. The SCI-K demonstrated excellent test-retest (Phi coefficient = 0.956 (95% CI = 0.937, 0.970)) and inter-rater reliability (phi coefficient = 0.718 (95% CI = 0.506, 0.848)) in the diagnosis of kleptomania. Concurrent validity was observed with a self-report measure using DSM-IV kleptomania criteria (phi coefficient = 0.769 (95% CI = 0.653, 0.850)). Discriminant validity was observed with a measure of depression (point biserial coefficient = -0.020 (95% CI = -0.205, 0.166)). The SCI-K demonstrated both high sensitivity and specificity based on longitudinal assessment. The SCI-K demonstrated excellent reliability and validity in diagnosing kleptomania in subjects presenting with various psychiatric problems. These findings require replication in larger groups, including non-psychiatric populations, to examine their generalizability. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Self-discrepancy: Long-term test-retest reliability and test-criterion predictive validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Neill; Bryan, Brandon C; Thrash, Todd M

    2016-01-01

    Long-term test-retest reliability and predictive test-criterion evidence of validity of scores on measures of the real-ideal self-discrepancy and of the real-ought self-discrepancy were tested over periods of 1 year and 3 years. A sample of 184 undergraduates completed at 2 time points 1 year apart 3 instruments that each measure the 2 self-discrepancies: the idiographic Self-Concept Questionnaire-Personal Constructs, the nonidiographic Self-Concept Questionnaire-Conventional Constructs, and the content-free Abstract Measures. A separate sample of 141 undergraduates completed the instruments 3 years apart. Both samples completed 3 depression instruments and 3 anxiety instruments at the second time point. Results of analyses using latent variables modeled with 3 observed variables showed substantial statistically significant test-retest reliabilities and significant test-criterion prediction of anxiety and depression on the real-ideal and real-ought discrepancy measures over both time periods. Results for the observed variables showed significant 1-year and 3-year reliabilities for scores on all self-discrepancy measures, as well as significant 1-year and 3-year predictive validity for scores on all self-discrepancy measures, except the abstract measure of real-ought discrepancy in predicting scores on all depression measures and on at least 1 anxiety measure. The findings support very strong long-term stabilities of the self-discrepancy personality constructs and their long-term associations with anxiety and depression.

  3. Validity and reliability of the Japanese version of the Newest Vital Sign: a preliminary study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takamichi Kogure

    Full Text Available Health literacy (HL refers to the ability to obtain, process, and understand basic health information and services, and is thus needed to make appropriate health decisions. The Newest Vital Sign (NVS is comprised of 6 questions about an ice cream nutrition label and assesses HL numeracy skills. We developed a Japanese version of the NVS (NVS-J and evaluated the validity and reliability of the NVS-J in patients with chronic pain. The translation of the original NVS into Japanese was achieved as per the published guidelines. An observational study was subsequently performed to evaluate the validity and reliability of the NVS-J in 43 Japanese patients suffering from chronic pain. Factor analysis with promax rotation, using the Kaiser criterion (eigenvalues ≥1.0, and a scree plot revealed that the main component of the NVS-J consists of three determinative factors, and each factor consists of two NVS-J items. The criterion-related validity of the total NVS-J score was significantly correlated with the total score of Ishikawa et al.'s self-rated HL Questionnaire, the clinical global assessment of comprehensive HL level, cognitive function, and the Brinkman index. In addition, Cronbach's coefficient for the total score of the NVS-J was adequate (alpha = 0.72. This study demonstrated that the NVS-J has good validity and reliability. Further, the NVS-J consists of three determinative factors: "basic numeracy ability," "complex numeracy ability," and "serious-minded ability." These three HL abilities comprise a 3-step hierarchical structure. Adequate HL should be promoted in chronic pain patients to enable coping, improve functioning, and increase activities of daily living (ADLs and quality of life (QOL.

  4. General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

    2016-01-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

  5. An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz

    2016-06-01

    The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment's reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

  6. Reliable prediction of heat of vaporization of n-alkanes at 298.15 K

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOVAN D. JOVANOVIĆ

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available A reliable model for the prediction of the heat of vaporization for n-alkanes at 298.15 K with the number of carbon atoms and normal boiling point as the only input parameters is recommended. The new model is compared with other literature models and was found to give the best results with absolute mean percentage deviation of 0.81 % and maximum absolute percentage deviation of 2.93 %.

  7. Using multi-model averaging to improve the reliability of catchment scale nitrogen predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exbrayat, J.-F.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.

    2013-01-01

    Hydro-biogeochemical models are used to foresee the impact of mitigation measures on water quality. Usually, scenario-based studies rely on single model applications. This is done in spite of the widely acknowledged advantage of ensemble approaches to cope with structural model uncertainty issues. As an attempt to demonstrate the reliability of such multi-model efforts in the hydro-biogeochemical context, this methodological contribution proposes an adaptation of the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) philosophy to nitrogen losses predictions. A total of 4 models are used to predict the total nitrogen (TN) losses from the well-monitored Ellen Brook catchment in Western Australia. Simulations include re-predictions of current conditions and a set of straightforward management changes targeting fertilisation scenarios. Results show that, in spite of good calibration metrics, one of the models provides a very different response to management changes. This behaviour leads the simple average of the ensemble members to also predict reductions in TN export that are not in agreement with the other models. However, considering the convergence of model predictions in the more sophisticated REA approach assigns more weight to previously less well-calibrated models that are more in agreement with each other. This method also avoids having to disqualify any of the ensemble members.

  8. Measures of Hindu Pathways: Development and Preliminary Evidence of Reliability and Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarakeshwar, Nalini; Pargament, Kenneth I.; Mahoney, Annette

    2003-01-01

    Examines religious practices of Hindus in the United States and develops measures of their religious pathways. Four religious pathways were identified: devotion, ethical action, knowledge, and physical restraint/yoga. Results indicate that the measures of the religious pathways possessed adequate psychometric properties and were predictive of…

  9. Measures of Hindu Pathways: Development and Preliminary Evidence of Reliability and Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarakeshwar, Nalini; Pargament, Kenneth I.; Mahoney, Annette

    2003-01-01

    Examines religious practices of Hindus in the United States and develops measures of their religious pathways. Four religious pathways were identified: devotion, ethical action, knowledge, and physical restraint/yoga. Results indicate that the measures of the religious pathways possessed adequate psychometric properties and were predictive of…

  10. Developing the Psychological Strain Scales (PSS): Reliability, Validity, and Preliminary Hypothesis Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Lu, Juncheng; Zhao, Sibo; Lamis, Dorian A; Li, Ning; Kong, Yuanyuan; Jia, Cunxian; Zhou, Li; Ma, Zhenyu

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception, the Strain Theory of Suicide has been tested and supported in a number of empirical studies. This social psychological theory can be employed as a complementary conceptualization to account for suicidal behaviors as well as mental disorders. However, the lack of consistent measurements of the strains limits the application of the theory in scientific research. Our research team has developed such scales for future testing of the Strain Theory of Suicide in a more systematic approach. For the initial items to measure the four strains (value, aspiration, deprivation, and coping), we solicited approximately 40 items for each strain with high face validity by about 30 fellow researchers. A preliminary examination of about 160 items for consistency and validity, with a sample of about 300 college students, yielded 20 consistent items for each of the four strain scales. Then, a second study was conducted at a different university with approximately 500 students to further streamline each of the four strain scales and test the validity of each with corresponding established scales and variables. As a result, 15 items were selected for each of the four Psychological Strain Scales (PSS). In correlation and multiple regression analyses, we found support for the hypotheses regarding the positive associations between psychological strains measured by the PSS and psychopathology including suicidal ideation. Follow up research with the new scales needs to be carried out in order to test the effects of psychological strains on suicide and mental disorders for various populations.

  11. The sexual consent scale-revised: development, reliability, and preliminary validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphreys, Terry P; Brousseau, Mélanie M

    2010-09-01

    The Sexual Consent Scale-Revised (SCS-R) measures an individual's beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors with respect to how sexual consent should be and is negotiated between sexual partners. This study extends previous research on sexual consent by revising a scale using the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991, 2001, 2005) as its theoretical foundation. The psychometric properties of the SCS-R were established using factor analysis, construct validity tests, as well as internal consistency and test-retest reliability. Five factors emerged: perceived behavioral control, positive attitude toward establishing consent, sexual consent norms, indirect consent behaviors, and awareness of consent. Results indicated that the SCS-R can be useful for examining a variety of research questions relating to sexual consent.

  12. The ARIC predictive model reliably predicted risk of type II diabetes in Asian populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin Calvin

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identification of high-risk individuals is crucial for effective implementation of type 2 diabetes mellitus prevention programs. Several studies have shown that multivariable predictive functions perform as well as the 2-hour post-challenge glucose in identifying these high-risk individuals. The performance of these functions in Asian populations, where the rise in prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is expected to be the greatest in the next several decades, is relatively unknown. Methods Using data from three Asian populations in Singapore, we compared the performance of three multivariate predictive models in terms of their discriminatory power and calibration quality: the San Antonio Health Study model, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities model and the Framingham model. Results The San Antonio Health Study and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities models had better discriminative powers than using only fasting plasma glucose or the 2-hour post-challenge glucose. However, the Framingham model did not perform significantly better than fasting glucose or the 2-hour post-challenge glucose. All published models suffered from poor calibration. After recalibration, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities model achieved good calibration, the San Antonio Health Study model showed a significant lack of fit in females and the Framingham model showed a significant lack of fit in both females and males. Conclusions We conclude that adoption of the ARIC model for Asian populations is feasible and highly recommended when local prospective data is unavailable.

  13. Puget Sound Area Electric Reliability Plan : Scoping Summary Report - Part B Preliminary Technical Analysis Appendix A.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1991-09-01

    This report describes in general terms the nature of the voltage instability problem facing the Puget Sound area. The following two chapters cover the technical aspects of the problem. It deals with load growth, the root cause of the problem. Also addressed is the capacity of the current power system and the criteria for future system planning. It also explains the technical results of transmission system modeling which confirm the system's vulnerability to voltage instability, the principal symptom of the problem. The results of the scoping process in each of the four measure categories are presented. Included are lists of all options identified, a discussion of the screening criteria, and descriptions of the measures that survived the screening process and are proposed for further evaluation in Phase 2. We discuss the evaluation methodology which will be used to refine the analyses. The next steps in the planning process are outlined. It also describes the short term operational agreements that will assure continued reliable service until a long term solution is in place. 8 figs., 22 tabs.

  14. CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2003-01-01

    This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

  15. Application of Petri nets to reliability prediction of occupant safety systems with partial detection and repair

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleyner, Andre, E-mail: andre.v.kleyner@delphi.co [Delphi Corporation, Electronics and Safety Division, P.O. Box 9005, M.S. CTC 2E, Kokomo, IN 46904 (United States); Volovoi, Vitali, E-mail: vitali.volovoi@ae.gatech.ed [School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332 (United States)

    2010-06-15

    This paper presents an application of stochastic Petri nets (SPN) to calculate the availability of safety critical on-demand systems. Traditional methods of estimating system reliability include standards-based or field return-based reliability prediction methods. These methods do not take into account the effect of fault-detection capability and penalize the addition of detection circuitry due to the higher parts count. Therefore, calculating system availability, which can be linked to the system's probability of failure on demand (P{sub fd}), can be a better alternative to reliability prediction. The process of estimating the P{sub fd} of a safety system can be further complicated by the presence of system imperfections such as partial-fault detection by users and untimely or uncompleted repairs. Additionally, most system failures cannot be represented by Poisson process Markov chain methods, which are commonly utilized for the purposes of estimating P{sub fd}, as these methods are not well-suited for the analysis of non-Poisson failures. This paper suggests a methodology and presents a case study of SPN modeling adequately handling most of the above problems. The model will be illustrated with a case study of an automotive electronics airbag controller as an example of a safety critical on-demand system.

  16. Conducting Real-Time Videofluoroscopic Swallow Study via Telepractice: A Preliminary Feasibility and Reliability Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Clare L; Ward, Elizabeth C; Hill, Anne J; Phillips, Nick; Porter, Linda

    2016-06-01

    A small number of studies have examined the feasibility of conducting videofluoroscopic swallow studies (VFSS) via telepractice. While the results have confirmed this potential, the systems tested to date have either reported issues that impacted the ability to analyze/interpret the VFSS recordings in real time, or they were not designed to enable real-time interpretation. Further system design is needed to establish a telepractice model that enables the VFSS assessment to be both guided and interpreted live in real time. The aim of this study was to test the feasibility and reliability of using a telepractice system to enable live VFSS assessment. Twenty adult patients underwent a VFSS assessment directed by a telepractice SLP with competency in VFSS located in another room of the hospital. The telepractice clinician led the sessions using a C20 Cisco TelePresence System. This was linked in real time via a secure telehealth network (at 4 megabits per second (Mbit/s)) to a C60 Cisco TelePresence System located in a fluoroscopy suite, connected to the digital fluoroscopy system. Levels of agreement were calculated between the telepractice clinician and a face-to-face clinician who simultaneously rated the VFSS in real time. High levels of agreement for swallowing parameters (range = 75-100 %; k = -0.34 to 1.0) and management decisions (range = 70-100 %, k = 0.64-1.0) were found. A post-session questionnaire revealed clinicians agreed that the telepractice system enabled successful remote assessment of VFSS. The findings support the potential to conduct live VFSS assessment via a telepractice model.

  17. Impact of Relationships between Test and Reference Animals and between Reference Animals on Reliability of Genomic Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Xiaoping; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sun, Dongxiao

    as a common test population. A GBLUP model and a Bayesian mixture model were applied to predict Genomic breeding values for bulls in the test data. Result showed that a closer relationship between test and reference animals led to a higher reliability, while a closer relationship between reference animal......This study investigated reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to relationship between test and reference animals and between animals within the reference population. Different reference populations were generated from EuroGenomics data and 1288 Nordic Holstein bulls...... resulted in a lower reliability. Therefore, the design of reference population is important for improving the reliability of genomic prediction. With regard to model, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to slightly a higher reliability of genomic prediction than the GBLUP model....

  18. Quantitative trait loci markers derived from whole genome sequence data increases the reliability of genomic prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøndum, Rasmus Froberg; Su, Guosheng; Janss, Luc

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the effect on the reliability of genomic prediction when a small number of significant variants from single marker analysis based on whole genome sequence data were added to the regular 54k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. The extra markers were selected...... itself. Depending on the trait’s economic weight, 15, 10, or 5 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were selected per trait per breed and 3 to 5 markers were selected to tag each QTL. After removing duplicate markers (same marker selected for more than one trait or breed) and filtering for high pairwise linkage...... was observed for mastitis, but only a 0.5 percentage point increase was seen for fertility. When using a Bayesian model accuracies were generally higher with only 54k data compared with the genomic BLUP approach, but increases in reliability were relatively smaller when QTL markers were included. Results from...

  19. Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

    2003-01-01

    A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

  20. A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

    2014-09-01

    LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

  1. Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina

    To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... response of a boat impact. The first and second modal damping of the system during normal operation both from measurements and simulations are identified with the implementation of the Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition technique. The effect of damping on the side-side fatigue of the support structure...

  2. Quantitative trait loci markers derived from whole genome sequence data increases the reliability of genomic prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brøndum, R F; Su, G; Janss, L; Sahana, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Boichard, D; Lund, M S

    2015-06-01

    This study investigated the effect on the reliability of genomic prediction when a small number of significant variants from single marker analysis based on whole genome sequence data were added to the regular 54k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. The extra markers were selected with the aim of augmenting the custom low-density Illumina BovineLD SNP chip (San Diego, CA) used in the Nordic countries. The single-marker analysis was done breed-wise on all 16 index traits included in the breeding goals for Nordic Holstein, Danish Jersey, and Nordic Red cattle plus the total merit index itself. Depending on the trait's economic weight, 15, 10, or 5 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were selected per trait per breed and 3 to 5 markers were selected to tag each QTL. After removing duplicate markers (same marker selected for more than one trait or breed) and filtering for high pairwise linkage disequilibrium and assaying performance on the array, a total of 1,623 QTL markers were selected for inclusion on the custom chip. Genomic prediction analyses were performed for Nordic and French Holstein and Nordic Red animals using either a genomic BLUP or a Bayesian variable selection model. When using the genomic BLUP model including the QTL markers in the analysis, reliability was increased by up to 4 percentage points for production traits in Nordic Holstein animals, up to 3 percentage points for Nordic Reds, and up to 5 percentage points for French Holstein. Smaller gains of up to 1 percentage point was observed for mastitis, but only a 0.5 percentage point increase was seen for fertility. When using a Bayesian model accuracies were generally higher with only 54k data compared with the genomic BLUP approach, but increases in reliability were relatively smaller when QTL markers were included. Results from this study indicate that the reliability of genomic prediction can be increased by including markers significant in genome-wide association studies on whole genome

  3. SMART empirical approaches for predicting field performance of PV modules from results of reliability tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardikar, Kedar Y.; Liu, Bill J. J.; Bheemreddy, Venkata

    2016-09-01

    Gaining an understanding of degradation mechanisms and their characterization are critical in developing relevant accelerated tests to ensure PV module performance warranty over a typical lifetime of 25 years. As newer technologies are adapted for PV, including new PV cell technologies, new packaging materials, and newer product designs, the availability of field data over extended periods of time for product performance assessment cannot be expected within the typical timeframe for business decisions. In this work, to enable product design decisions and product performance assessment for PV modules utilizing newer technologies, Simulation and Mechanism based Accelerated Reliability Testing (SMART) methodology and empirical approaches to predict field performance from accelerated test results are presented. The method is demonstrated for field life assessment of flexible PV modules based on degradation mechanisms observed in two accelerated tests, namely, Damp Heat and Thermal Cycling. The method is based on design of accelerated testing scheme with the intent to develop relevant acceleration factor models. The acceleration factor model is validated by extensive reliability testing under different conditions going beyond the established certification standards. Once the acceleration factor model is validated for the test matrix a modeling scheme is developed to predict field performance from results of accelerated testing for particular failure modes of interest. Further refinement of the model can continue as more field data becomes available. While the demonstration of the method in this work is for thin film flexible PV modules, the framework and methodology can be adapted to other PV products.

  4. Developing a novel hierarchical approach for multiscale structural reliability predictions for ultra-high consequence applications.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emery, John M; Coffin, Peter; Robbins, Brian A; Carroll, Jay; Field, Richard V.,; Yung Suk Jeremy Yoo; Josh Kacher

    2017-09-01

    Microstructural variabilities are among the predominant sources of uncertainty in structural performance and reliability. We seek to develop efficient algorithms for multiscale calcu- lations for polycrystalline alloys such as aluminum alloy 6061-T6 in environments where ductile fracture is the dominant failure mode. Our approach employs concurrent multiscale methods, but does not focus on their development. They are a necessary but not sufficient ingredient to multiscale reliability predictions. We have focused on how to efficiently use concurrent models for forward propagation because practical applications cannot include fine-scale details throughout the problem domain due to exorbitant computational demand. Our approach begins with a low-fidelity prediction at the engineering scale that is sub- sequently refined with multiscale simulation. The results presented in this report focus on plasticity and damage at the meso-scale, efforts to expedite Monte Carlo simulation with mi- crostructural considerations, modeling aspects regarding geometric representation of grains and second-phase particles, and contrasting algorithms for scale coupling.

  5. Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

    2014-09-01

    Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology.

  6. Reliability of didactic grades to predict practical skills in an undergraduate dental college in Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zawawi KH

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Khalid H Zawawi,1 Ahmed R Afify,1 Mohammed K Yousef,2 Hisham I Othman,3 Ayman A Al-Dharrab4 1Department of Orthodontics, 2Department of Operative Dentistry, 3Department of Oral Diagnostic Sciences, 4Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Prosthodontics, Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Objectives: This longitudinal study was aimed to investigate the association between didactic grades and practical skills for dental students and whether didactic grades can reliability predict the dental students’ practical performance. Materials and methods: Didactic and practical grades for graduates from the Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, between the years 2009 and 2011 were collected. Four courses were selected: Dental Anatomy, Operative Dentistry, Prosthodontics, and Orthodontics. Pearson product-moment correlation analyses between didactic and practical scores were conducted. Results: There was only a significant correlation between didactic and practical scores for the Dental Anatomy course (P<0.001. There was also a significant correlation between all four subjects in the didactic scores (P<0.001. Only the scores of male students showed a significant correlation in the Operative Dentistry course (P<0.001. There were no correlations between Orthodontic grades. Moreover, a poor degree of reliability was found between didactic and practical scores for all subjects. Conclusion: Based on the findings of this study, the relationship between didactic grades and practical performance is course specific. Didactic grades do not reliably predict the students' practical skills. Measuring practical performances should be independent from didactic grading. Keywords: correlation study, dental education, dental students, practical performance

  7. Using probabilistic analysis to assess the reliability of predicted SRB aft-skirt stresses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, James A.

    1991-01-01

    Probabilistic failure analysis is a tool to predict the reliability of a part or system. Probabalistic techniques were used to predict critical stresses which occur in the solid rocket booster aft-skirt during main engine buildup, immediately prior to lift-off. More than any other hold down post (HDP) load component, the Z loads are sensitive to variations in strains and calibration constants. Also, predicted aft-skirt stresses are strongly affected by HDP load variations. Therefore, the instrumented HDP are not effective load transducers for Z loads, and, when used with aft skirt stress indicator equations, yield estimates with large uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation proved to be a straight forward way of studying the overlapping effects of multiple parameters on predicted equipment performance. An advantage of probabilistic analysis is the degree of uncertainty of each parameter as stated explicitly by its probability distribution. It was noted, however, that the choice of parameter distribution had a large effect on the simulation results. Many times these distributions must be assumed. The engineer who is designing the part should be responsible for the choice of parameter distribution.

  8. Reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Frederik Banch; Krog, Grethe Risum; Rieneck, Klaus;

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis.......The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis....

  9. Using a reliability process to reduce uncertainty in predicting crashes at unsignalized intersections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haleem, Kirolos; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Mackie, Kevin

    2010-03-01

    The negative binomial (NB) model has been used extensively by traffic safety analysts as a crash prediction model, because it can accommodate the over-dispersion criterion usually exhibited in crash count data. However, the NB model is still a probabilistic model that may benefit from updating the parameters of the covariates to better predict crash frequencies at intersections. The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of updating the parameters of the covariates in the fitted NB model using a Bayesian updating reliability method to more accurately predict crash frequencies at 3-legged and 4-legged unsignalized intersections. For this purpose, data from 433 unsignalized intersections in Orange County, Florida were collected and used in the analysis. Four Bayesian-structure models were examined: (1) a non-informative prior with a log-gamma likelihood function, (2) a non-informative prior with an NB likelihood function, (3) an informative prior with an NB likelihood function, and (4) an informative prior with a log-gamma likelihood function. Standard measures of model effectiveness, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), mean absolute deviance (MAD), mean square prediction error (MSPE) and overall prediction accuracy, were used to compare the NB and Bayesian model predictions. Considering only the best estimates of the model parameters (ignoring uncertainty), both the NB and Bayesian models yielded favorable results. However, when considering the standard errors for the fitted parameters as a surrogate measure for measuring uncertainty, the Bayesian methods yielded more promising results. The full Bayesian updating framework using the log-gamma likelihood function for updating parameter estimates of the NB probabilistic models resulted in the least standard error values.

  10. A web-based team-oriented medical error communication assessment tool: development, preliminary reliability, validity, and user ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sara; Brock, Doug; Prouty, Carolyn D; Odegard, Peggy Soule; Shannon, Sarah E; Robins, Lynne; Boggs, Jim G; Clark, Fiona J; Gallagher, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Multiple-choice exams are not well suited for assessing communication skills. Standardized patient assessments are costly and patient and peer assessments are often biased. Web-based assessment using video content offers the possibility of reliable, valid, and cost-efficient means for measuring complex communication skills, including interprofessional communication. We report development of the Web-based Team-Oriented Medical Error Communication Assessment Tool, which uses videotaped cases for assessing skills in error disclosure and team communication. Steps in development included (a) defining communication behaviors, (b) creating scenarios, (c) developing scripts, (d) filming video with professional actors, and (e) writing assessment questions targeting team communication during planning and error disclosure. Using valid data from 78 participants in the intervention group, coefficient alpha estimates of internal consistency were calculated based on the Likert-scale questions and ranged from α=.79 to α=.89 for each set of 7 Likert-type discussion/planning items and from α=.70 to α=.86 for each set of 8 Likert-type disclosure items. The preliminary test-retest Pearson correlation based on the scores of the intervention group was r=.59 for discussion/planning and r=.25 for error disclosure sections, respectively. Content validity was established through reliance on empirically driven published principles of effective disclosure as well as integration of expert views across all aspects of the development process. In addition, data from 122 medicine and surgical physicians and nurses showed high ratings for video quality (4.3 of 5.0), acting (4.3), and case content (4.5). Web assessment of communication skills appears promising. Physicians and nurses across specialties respond favorably to the tool.

  11. Performances and reliability predictions of optical data transmission links using a system simulator for aerospace applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechou, L.; Deshayes, Y.; Aupetit-Berthelemot, C.; Guerin, A.; Tronche, C.

    Space missions for Earth Observation are called upon to carry a growing number of instruments in their payload, whose performances are increasing. Future space systems are therefore intended to generate huge amounts of data and a key challenge in coming years will therefore lie in the ability to transmit that significant quantity of data to ground. Thus very high data rate Payload Telemetry (PLTM) systems will be required to face the demand of the future Earth Exploration Satellite Systems and reliability is one of the major concern of such systems. An attractive approach associated with the concept of predictive modeling consists in analyzing the impact of components malfunctioning on the optical link performances taking into account the network requirements and experimental degradation laws. Reliability estimation is traditionally based on life-testing and a basic approach is to use Telcordia requirements (468GR) for optical telecommunication applications. However, due to the various interactions between components, operating lifetime of a system cannot be taken as the lifetime of the less reliable component. In this paper, an original methodology is proposed to estimate reliability of an optical communication system by using a dedicated system simulator for predictive modeling and design for reliability. At first, we present frameworks of point-to-point optical communication systems for space applications where high data rate (or frequency bandwidth), lower cost or mass saving are needed. Optoelectronics devices used in these systems can be similar to those found in terrestrial optical network. Particularly we report simulation results of transmission performances after introduction of DFB Laser diode parameters variations versus time extrapolated from accelerated tests based on terrestrial or submarine telecommunications qualification standards. Simulations are performed to investigate and predict the consequence of degradations of the Laser diode (acting as a

  12. Reliability prediction for evolutionary product in the conceptual design phase using neural network-based fuzzy synthetic assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Ling, Dan

    2013-03-01

    Reliability prediction plays an important role in product lifecycle management. It has been used to assess various reliability indices (such as reliability, availability and mean time to failure) before a new product is physically built and/or put into use. In this article, a novel approach is proposed to facilitate reliability prediction for evolutionary products during their early design stages. Due to the lack of sufficient data in the conceptual design phase, reliability prediction is not a straightforward task. Taking account of the information from existing similar products and knowledge from domain experts, a neural network-based fuzzy synthetic assessment (FSA) approach is proposed to predict the reliability indices that a new evolutionary product could achieve. The proposed approach takes advantage of the capability of the back-propagation neural network in terms of constructing highly non-linear functional relationship and combines both the data sets from existing similar products and subjective knowledge from domain experts. It is able to reach a more accurate prediction than the conventional FSA method reported in the literature. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are demonstrated via a case study of the fuel injection pump and a comparative study.

  13. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.;

    1997-01-01

    The paper deals with the prediction of global and localized damage and the future reliability estimation of partly damaged reinforced concrete (RC) structures under seismic excitation. Initially, a global maximum softening damage indicator is considered based on the variation of the eigenfrequency...... of the first mode due to the stiffness and strength deterioration of the structure. The hysteresis of the first mode is modelled by a Clough and Johnston hysteretic oscillator with a degrading elastic fraction of the restoring force. The linear parameters of the model are assumed to be known, measured before....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  14. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.;

    1994-01-01

    The paper deals with the prediction of global and localized damage and the future reliability estimation of partly damaged reinforced concrete (RC) structures under seismic excitation. Initially, a global maximum softening damage indicator is considered based on the variation of the eigenfrequency...... of the first mode due to the stiffness and strength deterioration of the structure. The hysteresis of the first mode is modelled by a Clough and Johnston hysteretic oscillator with a degrading elastic fraction of the restoring force. The linear parameters of the model are assumed to be known, measured before....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  15. Voluntarily Reported Immunization Registry Data: Reliability and Feasibility to Predict Immunization Rates, San Diego, California, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madewell, Zachary J; Wester, Robert B; Wang, Wendy W; Smith, Tyler C; Peddecord, K Michael; Morris, Jessica; DeGuzman, Heidi; Sawyer, Mark H; McDonald, Eric C

    Accurate data on immunization coverage levels are essential to public health program planning. Reliability of coverage estimates derived from immunization information systems (IISs) in states where immunization reporting by medical providers is not mandated by the state may be compromised by low rates of participation. To overcome this problem, data on coverage rates are often acquired through random-digit-dial telephone surveys, which require substantial time and resources. This project tested both the reliability of voluntarily reported IIS data and the feasibility of using these data to estimate regional immunization rates. We matched telephone survey records for 553 patients aged 19-35 months obtained in 2013 to 430 records in the San Diego County IIS. We assessed concordance between survey data and IIS data using κ to measure the degree of nonrandom agreement. We used multivariable logistic regression models to investigate differences among demographic variables between the 2 data sets. These models were used to construct weights that enabled us to predict immunization rates in areas where reporting is not mandated. We found moderate agreement between the telephone survey and the IIS for the diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis (κ = 0.49), pneumococcal conjugate (κ = 0.49), and Haemophilus influenzae type b (κ = 0.46) vaccines; fair agreement for the varicella (κ = 0.39), polio (κ = 0.39), and measles, mumps, and rubella (κ = 0.35) vaccines; and slight agreement for the hepatitis B vaccine (κ = 0.17). Consistency in factors predicting immunization coverage levels in a telephone survey and IIS data confirmed the feasibility of using voluntarily reported IIS data to assess immunization rates in children aged 19-35 months.

  16. Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear: Reliability of MR Imaging to Predict Stability after Conservative Treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Hye Won; Ahn, Jin Hwan; Ahn, Joong Mo; Yoon, Young Cheol; Hong, Hyun Pyo; Yoo, So Young; Kim, Seon Woo [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-06-15

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the reliability of MR imaging to predict the stability of the torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after complete recovery of the ligament's continuity. Twenty patients with 20 knee injuries (13 males and 7 females; age range, 20 54) were enrolled in the study. The inclusion criteria were a positive history of acute trauma, diagnosis of the ACL tear by both the physical examination and the MR imaging at the initial presentation, conservative treatment, complete recovery of the continuity of the ligament on the follow up (FU) MR images and availability of the KT-2000 measurements. Two radiologists, who worked in consensus, graded the MR findings with using a 3-point system for the signal intensity, sharpness, straightness and the thickness of the healed ligament. The insufficiency of ACL was categorized into three groups according to the KT-2000 measurements. The statistic correlations between the grades of the MR findings and the degrees of ACL insufficiency were analyzed using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test (p < 0.05). The p-values for each category of the MR findings according to the different groups of the KT-2000 measurements were 0.9180 for the MR signal intensity, 1.0000 for sharpness, 0.5038 for straightness and 0.2950 for thickness of the ACL. The MR findings were not significantly different between the different KT-2000 groups. MR imaging itself is not a reliable examination to predict stability of the ACL rupture outcome, even when the MR images show an intact appearance of the ACL.

  17. Link prediction in a MeSH co-occurrence network: preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastrin, Andrej; Rindflesch, Thomas C; Hristovski, Dimitar

    2014-01-01

    Literature-based discovery (LBD) refers to automatic discovery of implicit relations from the scientific literature. Co-occurrence associations between biomedical concepts are commonly used in LBD. These co-occurrences can be represented as a network that consists of a set of nodes representing concepts and a set of edges representing their relationships (or links). In this paper we propose and evaluate a methodology for link prediction of implicit connections in a network of co-occurring Medical Subject Headings (MeSH®). The proposed approach is complementary to, and may augment, existing LBD methods. Link prediction was performed using Jaccard and Adamic-Adar similarity measures. The preliminary results showed high prediction performance, with area under the ROC curve of 0.78 and 0.82 for the two similarity measures, respectively.

  18. The Reliability of Classification of Terminal Nodes in GUIDE Decision Tree to Predict the Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Birjandi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Tree structured modeling is a data mining technique used to recursively partition a dataset into relatively homogeneous subgroups in order to make more accurate predictions on generated classes. One of the classification tree induction algorithms, GUIDE, is a nonparametric method with suitable accuracy and low bias selection, which is used for predicting binary classes based on many predictors. In this tree, evaluating the accuracy of predicted classes (terminal nodes is clinically of special importance. For this purpose, we used GUIDE classification tree in two statuses of equal and unequal misclassification cost in order to predict nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, considering 30 predictors. Then, to evaluate the accuracy of predicted classes by using bootstrap method, first the classification reliability in which individuals are assigned to a unique class and next the prediction probability reliability as support for that are considered.

  19. Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.;

    The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

  20. Support Measures to Estimate the Reliability of Evolutionary Events Predicted by Reconciliation Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thi-Hau; Ranwez, Vincent; Berry, Vincent; Scornavacca, Celine

    2013-01-01

    The genome content of extant species is derived from that of ancestral genomes, distorted by evolutionary events such as gene duplications, transfers and losses. Reconciliation methods aim at recovering such events and at localizing them in the species history, by comparing gene family trees to species trees. These methods play an important role in studying genome evolution as well as in inferring orthology relationships. A major issue with reconciliation methods is that the reliability of predicted evolutionary events may be questioned for various reasons: Firstly, there may be multiple equally optimal reconciliations for a given species tree–gene tree pair. Secondly, reconciliation methods can be misled by inaccurate gene or species trees. Thirdly, predicted events may fluctuate with method parameters such as the cost or rate of elementary events. For all of these reasons, confidence values for predicted evolutionary events are sorely needed. It was recently suggested that the frequency of each event in the set of all optimal reconciliations could be used as a support measure. We put this proposition to the test here and also consider a variant where the support measure is obtained by additionally accounting for suboptimal reconciliations. Experiments on simulated data show the relevance of event supports computed by both methods, while resorting to suboptimal sampling was shown to be more effective. Unfortunately, we also show that, unlike the majority-rule consensus tree for phylogenies, there is no guarantee that a single reconciliation can contain all events having above 50% support. In this paper, we detail how to rely on the reconciliation graph to efficiently identify the median reconciliation. Such median reconciliation can be found in polynomial time within the potentially exponential set of most parsimonious reconciliations. PMID:24124449

  1. A pediatric FOUR score coma scale: interrater reliability and predictive validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaikowski, Brianna L; Liang, Hong; Stewart, C Todd

    2014-04-01

    The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a coma scale that consists of four components (eye and motor response, brainstem reflexes, and respiration). It was originally validated among the adult population and recently in a pediatric population. To enhance clinical assessment of pediatric intensive care unit patients, including those intubated and/or sedated, at our children's hospital, we modified the FOUR Score Scale for this population. This modified scale would provide many of the same advantages as the original, such as interrater reliability, simplicity, and elimination of the verbal component that is not compatible with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), creating a more valuable neurological assessment tool for the nursing community. Our goal was to potentially provide greater information than the formally used GCS when assessing critically ill, neurologically impaired patients, including those sedated and/or intubated. Experienced pediatric intensive care unit nurses were trained as "expert raters." Two different nurses assessed each subject using the Pediatric FOUR Score Scale (PFSS), GCS, and Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale at three different time points. Data were compared with the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category (PCPC) assessed by another nurse. Our hypothesis was that the PFSS and PCPC should highly correlate and the GCS and PCPC should correlate lower. Study results show that the PFSS is excellent for interrater reliability for trained nurse-rater pairs and prediction of poor outcome and in-hospital mortality, under various situations, but there were no statistically significant differences between the PFSS and the GCS. However, the PFSS does have the potential to provide greater neurological assessment in the intubated and/or sedated patient based on the outcomes of our study.

  2. Feasibility, Reliability and Predictive Value Of In-Ambulance Heart Rate Variability Registration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laetitia Yperzeele

    Full Text Available Heart rate variability (HRV is a parameter of autonomic nervous system function. A decrease of HRV has been associated with disease severity, risk of complications and prognosis in several conditions.We aim to investigate the feasibility and the reliability of in-ambulance HRV registration during emergency interventions, and to evaluate the association between prehospital HRV parameters, patient characteristics, vital parameters and short-term outcome.We conducted a prospective study using a non-invasive 2-lead ECG registration device in 55 patients transported by the paramedic intervention team of the Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel. HRV assessment included time domain parameters, frequency domain parameters, nonlinear analysis, and time-frequency analysis. The correlation between HRV parameters and patient and outcome characteristics was analyzed and compared to controls.Artifact and ectopic detection rates were higher in patients during ambulance transportation compared to controls in resting conditions, yet technical reasons precluding in-ambulance HRV analysis occurred in only 9.6% of cases. HRV acquisition was possible without safety issues or interference with routine emergency care. Reliability of the results was considered sufficient for Sample entropy (SampEn, good for the ratio of low frequency and high frequency components (LF/HF ratio in the frequency and the time frequency domain, and excellent for the triangular interpolation of the NN interval histogram (TINN, and for the short-term scaling exponent of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA α1. HRV indices were significantly reduced inpatients with unfavorable outcome compared to patients with favorable outcome and controls. Multivariate analysis identified lower DFA α1 as an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome (OR, 0.155; 95% CI 0.024-0.966; p = 0.049.In-ambulance HRV registration is technically and operationally feasible and produces reliable results for parameters

  3. Preliminary prediction of inflow into the D-holes at the Stripa Mine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, J.C.S.; Karasaki, K.; Davey, A.; Peterson, J.; Landsfeld, M.; Kemeny, J.; Martel, S.

    1990-02-01

    Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) is contracted by the US Department of Energy to provide an auxiliary modeling effort for the Stripa Project. Within this effort, we are making calculations of inflow to the Simulated Drift Experiment (SDE), i.e. inflow to six parallel, closely spaced D-holes, using a preliminary set of data collected in five other holes, the N- and W-holes during Stages 1 and 2 of the Site Characterization and Validation (SCV) project. Our approach has been to focus on the fracture zones rather than the general set of ubiquitous fractures. Approximately 90% of all the water flowing in the rock is flowing in fracture zones which are neither uniformly conductive nor are they infinitely extensive. Our approach has been to adopt the fracture zone locations as they have been identified with geophysics. We use geologic sense and the original geophysical data to add one zone where significant water inflow has been observed that can not be explained with the other geophysical zones. This report covers LBL's preliminary prediction of flow into the D-holes. Care should be taken in interpreting the results given in this report. As explained below, the approach that LBL has designed for developing a fracture hydrology model requires cross-hole hydrologic data. Cross-hole tests are planned for Stage 3 but were unavailable in Stage 1. As such, we have inferred from available data what a cross-hole test might show and used this synthetic data to make a preliminary calculation of the inflow into the D-holes. Then using all the Stage 3 data we will calculate flow into the Validation Drift itself. The report mainly demonstrates the use of our methodology and the simulated results should be considered preliminary.

  4. Improving Predictions with Reliable Extrapolation Schemes and Better Understanding of Factorization

    Science.gov (United States)

    More, Sushant N.

    New insights into the inter-nucleon interactions, developments in many-body technology, and the surge in computational capabilities has led to phenomenal progress in low-energy nuclear physics in the past few years. Nonetheless, many calculations still lack a robust uncertainty quantification which is essential for making reliable predictions. In this work we investigate two distinct sources of uncertainty and develop ways to account for them. Harmonic oscillator basis expansions are widely used in ab-initio nuclear structure calculations. Finite computational resources usually require that the basis be truncated before observables are fully converged, necessitating reliable extrapolation schemes. It has been demonstrated recently that errors introduced from basis truncation can be taken into account by focusing on the infrared and ultraviolet cutoffs induced by a truncated basis. We show that a finite oscillator basis effectively imposes a hard-wall boundary condition in coordinate space. We accurately determine the position of the hard-wall as a function of oscillator space parameters, derive infrared extrapolation formulas for the energy and other observables, and discuss the extension of this approach to higher angular momentum and to other localized bases. We exploit the duality of the harmonic oscillator to account for the errors introduced by a finite ultraviolet cutoff. Nucleon knockout reactions have been widely used to study and understand nuclear properties. Such an analysis implicitly assumes that the effects of the probe can be separated from the physics of the target nucleus. This factorization between nuclear structure and reaction components depends on the renormalization scale and scheme, and has not been well understood. But it is potentially critical for interpreting experiments and for extracting process-independent nuclear properties. We use a class of unitary transformations called the similarity renormalization group (SRG) transformations to

  5. Preliminary lifetime predictions for 304 stainless steel as the LANL ABC blanket material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, J.J.; Buksa, J.J.; Houts, M.G.; Arthur, E.D.

    1997-11-01

    The prediction of materials lifetime in the preconceptual Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Accelerator-Based Conversion of Plutonium (ABC) is of utmost interest. Because Hastelloy N showed good corrosion resistance to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Molten Salt Reactor Experiment fuel salt that is similar to the LANL ABC fuel salt, Hastelloy N was originally proposed for the LANL ABC blanket material. In this paper, the possibility of using 304 stainless steel as a replacement for the Hastelloy N is investigated in terms of corrosion issues and fluence-limit considerations. An attempt is made, based on the previous Fast Flux Test Facility design data, to predict the preliminary lifetime estimate of the 304 stainless steel used in the blanket region of the LANL ABC.

  6. Impact of Relationships between Test and Reference Animals and between Reference Animals on Reliability of Genomic Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Xiaoping; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sun, Dongxiao

    This study investigated reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to relationship between test and reference animals and between animals within the reference population. Different reference populations were generated from EuroGenomics data and 1288 Nordic Holstein bulls...... as a common test population. A GBLUP model and a Bayesian mixture model were applied to predict Genomic breeding values for bulls in the test data. Result showed that a closer relationship between test and reference animals led to a higher reliability, while a closer relationship between reference animal...

  7. Predicted reliability of aerospace electronics: Application of two advanced probabilistic concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhir, E.

    Two advanced probabilistic design-for-reliability (PDfR) concepts are addressed and discussed in application to the prediction, quantification and assurance of the aerospace electronics reliability: 1) Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) model, which is an extension of the currently widely used Arrhenius model and, in combination with the exponential law of reliability, enables one to obtain a simple, easy-to-use and physically meaningful formula for the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF) of a material or a device after the given time in operation at the given temperature and under the given stress (not necessarily mechanical), and 2) Extreme Value Distribution (EVD) technique that can be used to assess the number of repetitive loadings that result in the material/device degradation and eventually lead to its failure by closing, in a step-wise fashion, the gap between the bearing capacity (stress-free activation energy) of the material or the device and the demand (loading). It is shown that the material degradation (aging, damage accumulation, flaw propagation, etc.) can be viewed, when BAZ model is considered, as a Markovian process, and that the BAZ model can be obtained as the ultimate steady-state solution to the well-known Fokker-Planck equation in the theory of Markovian processes. It is shown also that the BAZ model addresses the worst, but a reasonably conservative, situation. It is suggested therefore that the transient period preceding the condition addressed by the steady-state BAZ model need not be accounted for in engineering evaluations. However, when there is an interest in understanding the transient degradation process, the obtained solution to the Fokker-Planck equation can be used for this purpose. As to the EVD concept, it attributes the degradation process to the accumulation of damages caused by a train of repetitive high-level loadings, while loadings of levels that are considerably lower than their extreme values do not contribute

  8. Software reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bendell, A

    1986-01-01

    Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

  9. A new and reliable model for predicting methane viscosity at high pressures and high temperatures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ehsan Heidaryan; Jamshid Moghadasi; Amir Salarabadi

    2010-01-01

    In recent years,there has been an increase of interest in the flow of gases at relatively high pressures and high temperatures.Hydrodynamic calculation of the energy losses in the flow of gases in conduits,as well as through the porous media constituting natural petroleum reservoirs,requires knowledge of the viscosity of the fluid at the pressure and temperature involved.Although there are numerous publications concerning the viscosity of methane at atmospheric pressure,there appears to be little information available relating to the effect of pressure and temperature upon the viscosity.A survey of the literature reveals that the disagreements between published data on the viscosity of methane are common and that most investigations have been conducted over restricted temperature and pressure ranges.Experimental viscosity data for methane are presented for temperatures from 320 to 400 K and pressures from 3000 to 140000 kPa by using falling body viscometer.A summary is given to evaluate the available data for methane,and a comparison is presented for that data common to the experimental range reported in this paper.A new and reliable correlation for methane gas viscosity is presented.Predicted values are given for temperatures up to 400 K and pressures up to 140000 kPa with Average Absolute Percent Relative Error(EABS)of 0.794.

  10. How reliable are the equations for predicting maximal heart rate values in military personnel?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sporis, Goran; Vucetic, Vlatko; Jukic, Igor; Omrcen, Darija; Bok, Daniel; Custonja, Zrinko

    2011-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of equations for predicting maximal values of heart rate (HR) in military personnel. Five hundred and nine members of the Croatian Armed Forces (age 29.1 +/- 5.5 years; height 180.1 +/- 6.6 cm; body mass 83.4 +/- 11.3 kg; maximal oxygen uptake [VO2(max)] 49.7 +/- 6.9 mL O2/kg/min) were tested. The graded exercise test with gas exchange measurements was used to determine VO2(max) and maximum HR (HR(max)). The analysis of variance was used to determine the differences between the equations to calculate HR(max). The analysis of variance yielded statistically significant differences between seven HR equations (p max) = 205 - [age/2]) and Fox and Haskell's (HR(max) = 220 - age) equations had the highest correlation with the HRmax obtained by the graded exercise test. The authors recommend using the HR(max) values from the Stevens Creek and the Fox and Haskell equations for the purpose of training, testing, and daily exercise routine in military personnel.

  11. Ultrasonographic quantification of intrinsic hand muscle cross-sectional area; Reliability and validity for predicting muscle strength

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohseny, Behnam; Nijhuis, Tim H.; Hundepool, Caroline A.; Janssen, Wim G.; Selles, Ruud W.; Coert, J. Henk

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether ultrasonographic measurement of the cross-sectional area (CSA) of the intrinsic hand muscles can be used to predict muscle strength in a valid and reliable manner, and to determine if this method can be used for follow-up of patients with peripheral nerve injury betw

  12. Reliability and Lifetime Prediction of Remote Phosphor Plates in Solid-State Lighting Applications Using Accelerated Degradation Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yazdan Mehr, M.; Van Driel, W.D.; Zhang, G.Q.

    2015-01-01

    A methodology, based on accelerated degradation testing, is developed to predict the lifetime of remote phosphor plates used in solid-state lighting (SSL) applications. Both thermal stress and light intensity are used to accelerate degradation reaction in remote phosphor plates. A reliability model,

  13. PON-P2: prediction method for fast and reliable identification of harmful variants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niroula, Abhishek; Urolagin, Siddhaling; Vihinen, Mauno

    2015-01-01

    More reliable and faster prediction methods are needed to interpret enormous amounts of data generated by sequencing and genome projects. We have developed a new computational tool, PON-P2, for classification of amino acid substitutions in human proteins. The method is a machine learning-based classifier and groups the variants into pathogenic, neutral and unknown classes, on the basis of random forest probability score. PON-P2 is trained using pathogenic and neutral variants obtained from VariBench, a database for benchmark variation datasets. PON-P2 utilizes information about evolutionary conservation of sequences, physical and biochemical properties of amino acids, GO annotations and if available, functional annotations of variation sites. Extensive feature selection was performed to identify 8 informative features among altogether 622 features. PON-P2 consistently showed superior performance in comparison to existing state-of-the-art tools. In 10-fold cross-validation test, its accuracy and MCC are 0.90 and 0.80, respectively, and in the independent test, they are 0.86 and 0.71, respectively. The coverage of PON-P2 is 61.7% in the 10-fold cross-validation and 62.1% in the test dataset. PON-P2 is a powerful tool for screening harmful variants and for ranking and prioritizing experimental characterization. It is very fast making it capable of analyzing large variant datasets. PON-P2 is freely available at http://structure.bmc.lu.se/PON-P2/.

  14. Preliminary reliability test of lateral-current-injection GaInAsP/InP membrane distributed feedback laser on Si substrate fabricated by adhesive wafer bonding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuda, Kai; Inoue, Daisuke; Hiratani, Takuo; Amemiya, Tomohiro; Nishiyama, Nobuhiko; Arai, Shigehisa

    2017-02-01

    A preliminary reliability test was performed for lateral-current-injection GaInAsP/InP membrane Distributed Feedback (DFB) lasers fabricated by multi-regrowth and adhesive wafer bonding. The measurement was conducted for lasers with two different types of p-side electrode: Ti/Au and Au/Zn/Au. The device with the Au/Zn/Au electrode, which had better current-voltage (I-V) characteristics, showed no degradation of differential quantum efficiency and threshold current after continuous aging for 310 h at a bias current density of 5 kA/cm2. This result indicates that the multi-regrowth and bonding process for the GaInAsP/InP membrane DFB laser will not impact the initial reliability.

  15. An overview of the reliability prediction related aspects of high power IGBTs in wind power applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busca, Christian; Teodorescu, Remus; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2011-01-01

    Reliability is becoming more and more important as the size and number of installed Wind Turbines (WTs) increases. Very high reliability is especially important for offshore WTs because the maintenance and repair of such WTs in case of failures can be very expensive. WT manufacturers need to cons...

  16. A Method to Predict the Reliability of Military Ground Vehicles Using High Performance Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-11-01

    optimization software, called RBDO . All three were ported from the University of Iowa to TARDEC’s HPC center and installed for run. (See figure 3... RBDO demands multiple reliability analyses at a given design. In the pilot study, refined reliability analyses for n number of the active/violate...preprocessor step to determine ‘hot spots’ and pre- Pre- processor Morpher Based Geometry Morpher Mesh ANSYS, NASTRAN, or ABAQUS DRAW DSO RBDO /PBDO

  17. Genotyping cows for the reference increase reliability of genomic prediction in a small breed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Sørensen, Anders Christian; Lund, Mogens Sandø

    2013-01-01

    compared to the H-B, at the same level of ∆F. T-C yielded 15% higher ∆G compared t o T-B. Changing the breeding scheme from H-B to H-C increased ∆G by 5.5%. The lowest ∆F was observed with genotyping of cows. Reliabilities of GEBV in the C schemes showed a steep increase in reliability during the first...

  18. Data pool structural integrity - reliability of lifetime prediction methods; Datensammlung Betriebsfestigkeit - Zuverlaessigkeit von Lebensdauerabschaetzungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotte, K.L.; Eulitz, K.G. [TU Dresden, Institut fuer Festkoerpermechanik, Mommsenstr. 13, 01069 Dresden (Germany)

    2003-09-01

    After the german reunification Professor Harald Zenner initiated and promoted several research projects which were aimed to mantain the bulk of available experimental results and to preserve the know-how grown in both german countries. So it could be saved for future use. Here the IMAB (Institute of Plant Engineering and Fatigue Analysis) of Clausthal Technical University (TUC) and the Institute of Solid State Mechanics of TU Dresden (TUD) cooperated in two investigations -''Lifetime-prediction I and II''. This resulted in the ''Data Pool Operational Strength DABEF'' and in a profound statistical analysis on reliability of service life estimations. Herein the influence of the counting method could be separated from that of the damage accumulation hypothesis. Deriving subgroups from the sample it became possible to define modulation factors for allowable stress. Besides this the data collection serves as a basis of further investigations which resulted in a postdoctoral qualification and several graduation works. Last but not least the findings of the statistical analysis expanded into the design code ''Computational proof of strength'' of the german Research Comittee Engineering (FKM). (Abstract Copyright [2003], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.) [German] Nach der Wiedervereinigung Deutschlands initiierte Prof. Harald Zenner mehrere Forschungsvorhaben, die das Ziel verfolgten, das gesamtdeutsche Know-How der Betriebsfestigkeit und den existierenden Fundus an Versuchsergebnissen aufzuarbeiten und damit fuer die weitere Nutzung zu sichern. In diesem Zusammenhang bearbeiteten das IMAB der TU Clausthal und das IFKM der TU Dresden gemeinsam zwei Vorhaben ''Lebensdauervorhersage I und II'', die ihr Ergebnis zum einen in der Datensammlung Betriebsfestigkeit ''DABEF'', zum anderen in einer sauberen statistischen Analyse zur Treffsicherheit der Lebensdauerabschaetzungsverfahren hatten

  19. Markov Chain Modelling of Reliability Analysis and Prediction under Mixed Mode Loading

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SINGH Salvinder; ABDULLAH Shahrum; NIK MOHAMED Nik Abdullah; MOHD NOORANI Mohd Salmi

    2015-01-01

    The reliability assessment for an automobile crankshaft provides an important understanding in dealing with the design life of the component in order to eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failure and safety risks. The failures of the crankshafts are considered as a catastrophic failure that leads towards a severe failure of the engine block and its other connecting subcomponents. The reliability of an automotive crankshaft under mixed mode loading using the Markov Chain Model is studied. The Markov Chain is modelled by using a two-state condition to represent the bending and torsion loads that would occur on the crankshaft. The automotive crankshaft represents a good case study of a component under mixed mode loading due to the rotating bending and torsion stresses. An estimation of the Weibull shape parameter is used to obtain the probability density function, cumulative distribution function, hazard and reliability rate functions, the bathtub curve and the mean time to failure. The various properties of the shape parameter is used to model the failure characteristic through the bathtub curve is shown. Likewise, an understanding of the patterns posed by the hazard rate onto the component can be used to improve the design and increase the life cycle based on the reliability and dependability of the component. The proposed reliability assessment provides an accurate, efficient, fast and cost effective reliability analysis in contrast to costly and lengthy experimental techniques.

  20. Reliability prediction of large fuel cell stack based on structure stress analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L. F.; Liu, B.; Wu, C. W.

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability of Proton Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stack by designing the clamping force and the thickness difference between the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) and the gasket. The stack reliability is directly determined by the component reliability, which is affected by the material property and contact stress. The component contact stress is a random variable because it is usually affected by many uncertain factors in the production and clamping process. We have investigated the influences of parameter variation coefficient on the probability distribution of contact stress using the equivalent stiffness model and the first-order second moment method. The optimal contact stress to make the component stay in the highest level reliability is obtained by the stress-strength interference model. To obtain the optimal contact stress between the contact components, the optimal thickness of the component and the stack clamping force are optimally designed. Finally, a detailed description is given how to design the MEA and gasket dimensions to obtain the highest stack reliability. This work can provide a valuable guidance in the design of stack structure for a high reliability of fuel cell stack.

  1. A Tutorial on Nonlinear Time-Series Data Mining in Engineering Asset Health and Reliability Prediction: Concepts, Models, and Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Dong

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of engineering asset management is to optimize assets service delivery potential and to minimize the related risks and costs over their entire life through the development and application of asset health and usage management in which the health and reliability prediction plays an important role. In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset is generally described as monitored nonlinear time-series data and subject to high levels of uncertainty and unpredictability. It has been proved that application of data mining techniques is very useful for extracting relevant features which can be used as parameters for assets diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, a tutorial on nonlinear time-series data mining in engineering asset health and reliability prediction is given. Besides that an overview on health and reliability prediction techniques for engineering assets is covered, this tutorial will focus on concepts, models, algorithms, and applications of hidden Markov models (HMMs and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs in engineering asset health prognosis, which are representatives of recent engineering asset health prediction techniques.

  2. Predicting Improvement in Depression Across Therapies Using Indicators of Romantic Relationship Functioning: A Preliminary Investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Sarah B; Priest, Jacob B; Denton, Wayne H

    2015-01-01

    Depression is a common presenting problem, often affected by couple interactions in unique ways. However, research in the area of romantic relationship functioning and depression often replicates previous research or consists of literature reviews, limiting the clinical relevancy. The purpose of this preliminary study is to expand the research on the effects of relational processes on depression treatment outcomes. We tested whether initiator tendency, attachment anxiety, attachment avoidance, and marital satisfaction predicted improvement in depression for women with Major Depressive Disorder enrolled in a depression treatment clinical trial (n = 17). Women completed treatments of either pharmacotherapy or combined Emotionally Focused Therapy for couples and pharmacotherapy. We found that higher baseline levels of partner initiator tendency resulted in less change in depression (worse outcomes), regardless of treatment type and that higher baseline levels of attachment avoidance predicted better depression outcomes in treatment. Marital satisfaction, however, was not linked to change in depression. Initiator tendency is discussed as a critical romantic relationship factor for depression treatment outcomes.

  3. Updating the reference population to achieve constant genomic prediction reliability across generations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pszczola, M; Calus, M P L

    2016-06-01

    The reliability of genomic breeding values (DGV) decays over generations. To keep the DGV reliability at a constant level, the reference population (RP) has to be continuously updated with animals from new generations. Updating RP may be challenging due to economic reasons, especially for novel traits involving expensive phenotyping. Therefore, the goal of this study was to investigate a minimal RP update size to keep the reliability at a constant level across generations. We used a simulated dataset resembling a dairy cattle population. The trait of interest was not included itself in the selection index, but it was affected by selection pressure by being correlated with an index trait that represented the overall breeding goal. The heritability of the index trait was assumed to be 0.25 and for the novel trait the heritability equalled 0.2. The genetic correlation between the two traits was 0.25. The initial RP (n=2000) was composed of cows only with a single observation per animal. Reliability of DGV using the initial RP was computed by evaluating contemporary animals. Thereafter, the RP was used to evaluate animals which were one generation younger from the reference individuals. The drop in the reliability when evaluating younger animals was then assessed and the RP was updated to re-gain the initial reliability. The update animals were contemporaries of evaluated animals (EVA). The RP was updated in batches of 100 animals/update. First, the animals most closely related to the EVA were chosen to update RP. The results showed that, approximately, 600 animals were needed every generation to maintain the DGV reliability at a constant level across generations. The sum of squared relationships between RP and EVA and the sum of off-diagonal coefficients of the inverse of the genomic relationship matrix for RP, separately explained 31% and 34%, respectively, of the variation in the reliability across generations. Combined, these parameters explained 53% of the

  4. Reliability of functional and predictive methods to estimate the hip joint centre in human motion analysis in healthy adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kainz, Hans; Hajek, Martin; Modenese, Luca; Saxby, David J; Lloyd, David G; Carty, Christopher P

    2017-03-01

    In human motion analysis predictive or functional methods are used to estimate the location of the hip joint centre (HJC). It has been shown that the Harrington regression equations (HRE) and geometric sphere fit (GSF) method are the most accurate predictive and functional methods, respectively. To date, the comparative reliability of both approaches has not been assessed. The aims of this study were to (1) compare the reliability of the HRE and the GSF methods, (2) analyse the impact of the number of thigh markers used in the GSF method on the reliability, (3) evaluate how alterations to the movements that comprise the functional trials impact HJC estimations using the GSF method, and (4) assess the influence of the initial guess in the GSF method on the HJC estimation. Fourteen healthy adults were tested on two occasions using a three-dimensional motion capturing system. Skin surface marker positions were acquired while participants performed quite stance, perturbed and non-perturbed functional trials, and walking trials. Results showed that the HRE were more reliable in locating the HJC than the GSF method. However, comparison of inter-session hip kinematics during gait did not show any significant difference between the approaches. Different initial guesses in the GSF method did not result in significant differences in the final HJC location. The GSF method was sensitive to the functional trial performance and therefore it is important to standardize the functional trial performance to ensure a repeatable estimate of the HJC when using the GSF method.

  5. The reliability of the improved eN method for the transition prediction of boundary layers on a flat plate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU CaiHong

    2012-01-01

    The transition criterion in the improved eN method is that transition would occur whenever the velocity amplitude of disturbance reaches 1%-2% of the free stream velocity,while in the conventional eN method,the N factor is an empirical factor.In this paper the reliability of this key assumption in the improved eN method is checked by results of transition prediction by using the Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE).Transition locations of an incompressible boundary layer and a hypersonic boundary layer at Mach number 6 on a flat plate are predicted by both the improved eN method and the PSE method.Results from both methods agree fairly well with each other,implying that the transition criterion proposed in the improved eN method is reliable.

  6. Long-term Creep Life Prediction and Its Reliability on HAZ Failure Data of Grade 91 Steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Jang, Jin Sung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jae Young [Pukyong National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Long-term creep life prediction on Grade 91 HAZ failure data was performed by LM parameter, and its reliability was successfully demonstrated using SCRI model based on Z-parameter. To improve the creep life prediction at the low stress range of high temperature range, the master curve with a 'sinh' function was newly proposed. By Monte-Carlo simulation, reliability assessment was made using the chosen service temperature and stress conditions. carbide/nitride forming elements such as V and Nb along with controlled addition of N in the plain 9Cr. 1Mo steel, offers a good combination of high creep strength and ductility over prolonged exposures at elevated temperatures. The choice of Gr. 91 steel for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) applications is guided by its low thermal expansion coefficient and high resistance to stress corrosion cracking in water-steam systems compared to austenitic stainless steels.

  7. Pelvic Incidence: A Predictive Factor for Three-Dimensional Acetabular Orientation—A Preliminary Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Boulay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Acetabular cup orientation (inclination and anteversion is a fundamental topic in orthopaedics and depends on pelvis tilt (positional parameter emphasising the notion of a safe range of pelvis tilt. The hypothesis was that pelvic incidence (morphologic parameter could yield a more accurate and reliable assessment than pelvis tilt. The aim was to find out a predictive equation of acetabular 3D orientation parameters which were determined by pelvic incidence to include in the model. The second aim was to consider the asymmetry between the right and left acetabulae. Twelve pelvic anatomic specimens were measured with an electromagnetic Fastrak system (Polhemus Society providing 3D position of anatomical landmarks to allow measurement of acetabular and pelvic parameters. Acetabulum and pelvis data were correlated by a Spearman matrix. A robust linear regression analysis provided prediction of acetabulum axes. The orientation of each acetabulum could be predicted by the incidence. The incidence is correlated with the morphology of acetabula. The asymmetry of the acetabular roof was correlated with pelvic incidence. This study allowed analysis of relationships of acetabular orientation and pelvic incidence. Pelvic incidence (morphologic parameter could determine the safe range of pelvis tilt (positional parameter for an individual and not a group.

  8. Ultrasonographic quantification of intrinsic hand muscle cross-sectional area; reliability and validity for predicting muscle strength.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohseny, Behnam; Nijhuis, Tim H; Hundepool, Caroline A; Janssen, Wim G; Selles, Ruud W; Coert, J Henk

    2015-05-01

    To investigate whether ultrasonographic measurement of the cross-sectional area (CSA) of the intrinsic hand muscles can be used to predict muscle strength in a valid and reliable manner, and to determine if this method can be used for follow-up of patients with peripheral nerve injury between the wrist and elbow. Repeated-measures cross-sectional study. Clinical and academic hospital. Healthy adults (n=31) and patients with ulnar and median nerve injuries (n=16) between the wrist and elbow who were visiting the Erasmus Medical Center or Maasstad Hospital were included in the study (N=47). Not applicable. Correlation between measured muscle CSA and strength and assessment of inter- and intrarater reliability. Ultrasound and strength measurements of the intrinsic hand muscles were conducted bilaterally. To establish validity, the CSA of 4 muscles (abductor digiti minimi, first dorsal interosseus, abductor pollicis brevis, opponens pollicis) was compared with strength measurements of the same muscles conducted with the Rotterdam Intrinsic Hand Myometer. Repeated measures were conducted to assess inter- and intrarater reliability. The assessed CSA strongly correlated with strength measurements, with correlations ranging from 0.82 to 0.93 in healthy volunteers and from 0.63 to 0.94 in patients. Test-retest reliability showed excellent intrarater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient range, 0.99-1.00) in patients and volunteers and good interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient range, 0.88-0.95) in healthy volunteers. We found that ultrasound is a valid and reliable method to assess the CSA of specific muscles in the hand. Therefore, this technique could be useful to monitor muscle reinnervation in patients suffering from peripheral nerve injury as a valuable addition to strength dynamometers. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Preliminary findings on the reliability and validity of the Cantonese Birmingham Cognitive Screen in patients with acute ischemic stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan X

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Xiaoping Pan,1,* Haobo Chen,1,2,* Wai-Ling Bickerton,2 Johnny King Lam Lau,2 Anthony Pak Hin Kong,3 Pia Rotshtein,2 Aihua Guo,1 Jianxi Hu,1 Glyn W Humphreys4 1Department of Neurology, Guangzhou First People’s Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; 3Department of Communication Sciences and Disorders, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA; 4Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: There are no currently effective cognitive assessment tools for patients who have suffered stroke in the People’s Republic of China. The Birmingham Cognitive Screen (BCoS has been shown to be a promising tool for revealing patients’ poststroke cognitive deficits in specific domains, which facilitates more individually designed rehabilitation in the long run. Hence we examined the reliability and validity of a Cantonese version BCoS in patients with acute ischemic stroke, in Guangzhou.Method: A total of 98 patients with acute ischemic stroke were assessed with the Cantonese version of the BCoS, and an additional 133 healthy individuals were recruited as controls. Apart from the BCoS, the patients also completed a number of external cognitive tests, including the Montreal Cognitive Assessment Test (MoCA, Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE, Albert’s cancellation test, the Rey–Osterrieth Complex Figure Test, and six gesture matching tasks. Cutoff scores for failing each subtest, ie, deficits, were computed based on the performance of the controls. The validity and reliability of the Cantonese BCoS were examined, as well as interrater and test–retest reliability. We also compared the proportions of cases being classified as deficits in controlled attention, memory, character writing, and praxis, between patients with and without spoken language impairment

  10. Ultrasonography in predicting and screening liver cirrhosis in children: A preliminary study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jia-An Zhu; Bing Hu

    2003-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the value of ultrasonography in predicting and screening liver cirrhosis in children.METHODS: Twenty-eight children with liver cirrhosis of various etiologies were examined by routine ultrasonography.A percutaneous liver biopsy guided by ultrasound was also performed on each patient, and the results of liver biopsy and ultrasonography were compared.RESULTS: When compared with the biopsy results,ultrasonography in combination of clinical and laboratory findings gave accurate diagnoses of children liver cirrhosis.Although ultrasound imaging of children with liver cirrhosis revealed abnormal characteristics, these images were not specific to this disease, thus reinforcing the necessity of ultrasound-guided liver biopsy in the diagnosis of children liver cirrhosis.CONCLUSION: Ultrasonography is reliable in the diagnosis of children liver cirrhosis, and its usefulness should be stressed in the screening and follow-up of high-risk pediatric patients.

  11. Reliabilities of genomic prediction using combined reference data of the Nordic Red dairy cattle production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøndum, Rasmus Froberg; Rius-Vilarrasa, E; Strandén, I

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the possibility of increasing the reliability of direct genomic values (DGV) by combining reference opulations. The data were from 3,735 bulls from Danish, Swedish, and Finnish Red dairy cattle populations. Single nucleotide polymorphism markers were fitted as random varia...

  12. Evaluating Proposed Investments in Power System Reliability and Resilience: Preliminary Results from Interviews with Public Utility Commission Staff

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaCommare, Kristina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Larsen, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Eto, Joseph [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Policymakers and regulatory agencies are expressing renewed interest in the reliability and resilience of the U.S. electric power system in large part due to growing recognition of the challenges posed by climate change, extreme weather events, and other emerging threats. Unfortunately, there has been little or no consolidated information in the public domain describing how public utility/service commission (PUC) staff evaluate the economics of proposed investments in the resilience of the power system. Having more consolidated information would give policymakers a better understanding of how different state regulatory entities across the U.S. make economic decisions pertaining to reliability/resiliency. To help address this, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) was tasked by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA) to conduct an initial set of interviews with PUC staff to learn more about how proposed utility investments in reliability/resilience are being evaluated from an economics perspective. LBNL conducted structured interviews in late May-early June 2016 with staff from the following PUCs: Washington D.C. (DCPSC), Florida (FPSC), and California (CPUC).

  13. Dataset size and composition impact the reliability of performance benchmarks for peptide-MHC binding predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Yohan; Sidney, John; Buus, Søren;

    2014-01-01

    Background: It is important to accurately determine the performance of peptide: MHC binding predictions, as this enables users to compare and choose between different prediction methods and provides estimates of the expected error rate. Two common approaches to determine prediction performance...... are cross-validation, in which all available data are iteratively split into training and testing data, and the use of blind sets generated separately from the data used to construct the predictive method. In the present study, we have compared cross-validated prediction performances generated on our last...... benchmark dataset from 2009 with prediction performances generated on data subsequently added to the Immune Epitope Database (IEDB) which served as a blind set. Results: We found that cross-validated performances systematically overestimated performance on the blind set. This was found not to be due...

  14. A preliminary study of a running speed based heart rate prediction during an incremental treadmill exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dae-Geun Jang; Byung-Hoon Ko; Sub Sunoo; Sang-Seok Nam; Hun-Young Park; Sang-Kon Bae

    2016-08-01

    This preliminary study investigates feasibility of a running speed based heart rate (HR) prediction. It is basically motivated from the assumption that there is a significant relationship between HR and the running speed. In order to verify the assumption, HR and running speed data from 217 subjects of varying aerobic capabilities were simultaneously collected during an incremental treadmill exercise. A running speed was defined as a treadmill speed and its corresponding heart rate was calculated by averaging the last one minute HR values of each session. The feasibility was investigated by assessing a correlation between the heart rate and the running speed using inter-subject (between-subject) and intra-subject (within-subject) datasets with regression orders of 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Furthermore, HR differences between actual and predicted HRs were also employed to investigate the feasibility of the running speed in predicting heart rate. In the inter-subject analysis, a strong positive correlation and a reasonable HR difference (r = 0.866, 16.55±11.24 bpm @ 1st order; r = 0.871, 15.93±11.49 bpm @ 2nd order; r = 0.897, 13.98±10.80 bpm @ 3rd order; and r = 0.899, 13.93±10.64 bpm @ 4th order) were obtained, and a very high positive correlation and a very low HR difference (r = 0.978, 6.46±3.89 bpm @ 1st order; r = 0.987, 5.14±2.87 bpm @ 2nd order; r = 0.996, 2.61±2.03 bpm @ 3rd order; and r = 0.997, 2.04±1.73 bpm @ 4th order) were obtained in the intra-subject analysis. It can therefore be concluded that 1) heart rate is highly correlated with a running speed; 2) heart rate can be approximately estimated by a running speed with a proper statistical model (e.g., 3rd-order regression); and 3) an individual HR-speed calibration process may improve the prediction accuracy.

  15. Potential of preliminary test methods to predict biodegradation performance of petroleum hydrocarbons in soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aichberger, H; Hasinger, Marion; Braun, Rudolf; Loibner, Andreas P

    2005-03-01

    Preliminary tests at different scales such as degradation experiments (laboratory) in shaking flasks, soil columns and lysimeters as well as in situ respiration tests (field) were performed with soil from two hydrocarbon contaminated sites. Tests have been evaluated in terms of their potential to provide information on feasibility, degradation rates and residual concentration of bioremediation in the vadose zone. Sample size, costs and duration increased with experimental scale in the order shaking flasks - soil columns - lysimeter - in situ respiration tests, only time demand of respiration tests was relatively low. First-order rate constants observed in degradation experiments exhibited significant differences between both, different experimental sizes and different soils. Rates were in line with type and history of contamination at the sites, but somewhat overestimated field rates particularly in small scale experiments. All laboratory experiments allowed an estimation of residual concentrations after remediation. In situ respiration tests were found to be an appropriate pre-testing and monitoring tool for bioventing although residual concentrations cannot be predicted from in situ respiration tests. Moreover, this method does not account for potential limitations that might hamper biodegradation in the longer term but only reflects the actual degradation potential when the test is performed.

  16. Plume and surface feature structure and compositional effects on Europa's global exosphere: Preliminary Europa mission predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teolis, B. D.; Wyrick, D. Y.; Bouquet, A.; Magee, B. A.; Waite, J. H.

    2017-03-01

    A Europa plume source, if present, may produce a global exosphere with complex spatial structure and temporal variability in its density and composition. To investigate this interaction we have integrated a water plume source containing multiple organic and nitrile species into a Europan Monte Carlo exosphere model, considering the effect of Europa's gravity in returning plume ejecta to the surface, and the subsequent spreading of adsorbed and exospheric material by thermal desorption and re-sputtering across the entire body. We consider sputtered, radiolytic and potential plume sources, together with surface adsorption, regolith diffusion, polar cold trapping, and re-sputtering of adsorbed materials, and examine the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the exospheric density and composition. These models provide a predictive basis for telescopic observations (e.g. HST, JWST) and planned missions to the Jovian system by NASA and ESA. We apply spacecraft trajectories to our model to explore possible exospheric compositions which may be encountered along proposed flybys of Europa to inform the spatial and temporal relationship of spacecraft measurements to surface and plume source compositions. For the present preliminary study, we have considered four cases: Case A: an equatorial flyby through a sputtered only exosphere (no plumes), Case B: a flyby over a localized sputtered 'macula' terrain enriched in non-ice species, Case C: a south polar plume with an Enceladus-like composition, equatorial flyby, and Case D: a south polar plume, flyby directly through the plume.

  17. Individual differences in left parietal white matter predict math scores on the Preliminary Scholastic Aptitude Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matejko, Anna A; Price, Gavin R; Mazzocco, Michèle M M; Ansari, Daniel

    2013-02-01

    Mathematical skills are of critical importance, both academically and in everyday life. Neuroimaging research has primarily focused on the relationship between mathematical skills and functional brain activity. Comparatively few studies have examined which white matter regions support mathematical abilities. The current study uses diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to test whether individual differences in white matter predict performance on the math subtest of the Preliminary Scholastic Aptitude Test (PSAT). Grades 10 and 11 PSAT scores were obtained from 30 young adults (ages 17-18) with wide-ranging math achievement levels. Tract based spatial statistics was used to examine the correlation between PSAT math scores, fractional anisotropy (FA), radial diffusivity (RD) and axial diffusivity (AD). FA in left parietal white matter was positively correlated with math PSAT scores (specifically in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus, left superior corona radiata, and left corticospinal tract) after controlling for chronological age and same grade PSAT critical reading scores. Furthermore, RD, but not AD, was correlated with PSAT math scores in these white matter microstructures. The negative correlation with RD further suggests that participants with higher PSAT math scores have greater white matter integrity in this region. Individual differences in FA and RD may reflect variability in experience dependent plasticity over the course of learning and development. These results are the first to demonstrate that individual differences in white matter are associated with mathematical abilities on a nationally administered scholastic aptitude measure.

  18. Ceramic material life prediction: A program to translate ANSYS results to CARES/LIFE reliability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonhermann, Pieter; Pintz, Adam

    1994-01-01

    This manual describes the use of the ANSCARES program to prepare a neutral file of FEM stress results taken from ANSYS Release 5.0, in the format needed by CARES/LIFE ceramics reliability program. It is intended for use by experienced users of ANSYS and CARES. Knowledge of compiling and linking FORTRAN programs is also required. Maximum use is made of existing routines (from other CARES interface programs and ANSYS routines) to extract the finite element results and prepare the neutral file for input to the reliability analysis. FORTRAN and machine language routines as described are used to read the ANSYS results file. Sub-element stresses are computed and written to a neutral file using FORTRAN subroutines which are nearly identical to those used in the NASCARES (MSC/NASTRAN to CARES) interface.

  19. Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) Software System Reliability Modeling and Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-06-01

    matrix in Table 1. Only software modules identified in the table were included in the reliability analysis. Other software modules which are off...0025 00 PREMATURE DATA REG CANC DAB007 NM b0/’ S 5 N0044 JD MESSAGE EXPIRATION DA007 DL #e5/C 80 1 iC,045 JD COMM SCENARIO PROBLEM DAB007 DL 05/ 0: bCG

  20. Physical attraction to reliable, low variability nervous systems: Reaction time variability predicts attractiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Emily E; Saville, Christopher W N; Ward, Robert; Ramsey, Richard

    2017-01-01

    The human face cues a range of important fitness information, which guides mate selection towards desirable others. Given humans' high investment in the central nervous system (CNS), cues to CNS function should be especially important in social selection. We tested if facial attractiveness preferences are sensitive to the reliability of human nervous system function. Several decades of research suggest an operational measure for CNS reliability is reaction time variability, which is measured by standard deviation of reaction times across trials. Across two experiments, we show that low reaction time variability is associated with facial attractiveness. Moreover, variability in performance made a unique contribution to attractiveness judgements above and beyond both physical health and sex-typicality judgements, which have previously been associated with perceptions of attractiveness. In a third experiment, we empirically estimated the distribution of attractiveness preferences expected by chance and show that the size and direction of our results in Experiments 1 and 2 are statistically unlikely without reference to reaction time variability. We conclude that an operating characteristic of the human nervous system, reliability of information processing, is signalled to others through facial appearance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Improving the statistical reliability of stream heat assimilation prediction. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLay, R.W.; Hundal, M.S.; Lamborn, K.R.

    1975-06-01

    In response to an increased interest in water quality by the public, a large effort has been mounted to develop mathematical models for predicting heat assimilation in bodies of water. The accuracy of these models has recently come under scrutiny due to the need for temperature predictions within 1C of the ambient. This work is an evaluation of existing, one-dimensional stream temperature prediction techniques for accuracy and precision. The approach is through error estimates on a general model that encompasses all of the models presently used. A sensitivity analysis of this general model is used in conjunction with statistical methods to determine the solution errors. (GRA)

  2. Assessing risk propensity in American soldiers: preliminary reliability and validity of the Evaluation of Risks (EVAR) scale--English version.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killgore, William D S; Vo, Alexander H; Castro, Carl A; Hoge, Charles W

    2006-03-01

    Risk-taking propensity is a critical component of judgment and decision-making in military operations. The Evaluation of Risks scale (EVAR) was recently developed to measure state and trait aspects of risk proneness. The scale, however, was psychometrically normed in French and no data are available for the English translation. We administered the English version of the EVAR to 165 U.S. soldiers to obtain reliability, validity, and normative data for English-speaking respondents. Confirmatory factor analysis suggested that the factor structure of the English EVAR differs from that obtained in the French studies. Instead, a three-factor solution, including recklessness/impulsivity, self-confidence, and need for control, emerged. Internal consistency was comparable to the French version. EVAR scores correlated with age, military rank, and years of service, and discriminated soldiers with histories of high-risk behavior. The data support the reliability and validity of the English version of the EVAR for evaluating risk propensity in U.S. soldiers.

  3. Reliable prediction of electric spark sensitivity of nitramines: a general correlation with detonation pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshavarz, Mohammad Hossein; Pouretedal, Hamid Reza; Semnani, Abolfazl

    2009-08-15

    For nitramines, a general correlation has been introduced to predict electric spark sensitivity through detonation pressure. New method uses maximum obtainable detonation pressure as a fundamental relation so that it can be corrected for some nitramines which have some specific molecular structure. There is no need to use crystal density and heat of formation of nitramine explosives for predicting detonation pressure and electric spark sensitivity. The predicted electric spark sensitivities are compared with calculated results on the basis of quantum mechanical computations for some nitramines that latter can be applied. The root mean square (rms) deviations from experiment for new method and the predicted results of complicated quantum mechanical method are 1.18 and 3.49J, respectively.

  4. Reliability and Factorial Validity of Non-Specific and Tennis-Specific Pre-Planned Agility Tests; Preliminary Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekulic, Damir; Uljevic, Ognjen; Peric, Mia; Spasic, Miodrag; Kondric, Miran

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Agility is an important quality in tennis, yet there is an evident lack of studies focussing on the applicability of tennis-specific agility performances and comparing them to equivalent non-specific agility performances. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and factorial validity of three tests of pre-planned agility, performed in specific (with a tennis racquet) and non-specific (without a tennis racquet) conditions. The sample consisted of 33 tennis players (13 males and 20 females; age: 18.3 ± 1.1 years and 18.6 ± 1.3 years; body height: 185.4 ± 51 cm and 169.3 ± 4.2 cm, 74.0 ± 4.4 kg and 61.2 ± 3.1 kg, respectively). The variables comprised three agility tests: a 20-yard test, a T-test and the Illinois test, all performed in both specific and non-specific conditions. Between-subject and within-subject reliability were found to be high (Cronbach Alpha: 0.93 to 0.98; Coefficient of Variation: 3 to 8%), with better within-subject reliability and stability of the measurement for specific tests. Pearson’s product moment correlations between the non-specific and specific agility performances were high (r ≥0.84), while factor analysis extracted only one significant latent dimension on the basis of the Guttman-Kaiser criterion. The results of the 20-yard test were better when the test was conducted in the specific conditions (t-test = 2.66; p test, superior results were recorded in the non-specific conditions (t-test = 2.96; p test duration (about 20 s) and non-specific locomotion forms such as rotational movements. Considering the findings of the present study, when testing tennis-specific pre-planned agility, we suggest using tests of short duration (less than 10 s) and sport-specific types of locomotion. PMID:28210343

  5. The reliability and predictive validity of a sixth-semester OSPE in conservative dentistry regarding performance on the state examination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petko, Petkov

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The aim of this study was to ascertain whether the testing format of an OSPE (Objective Structured Practical Examination in conservative dentistry (sixth semester predicts the scores on the practical section of the state examination (11 semester in the same subject. Taking general student profiles into consideration (score on the school-leaving exam [Abitur], score on the preliminary exam in dental medicine [Physikum], length of university study, cohorts, and sex, we also investigated if any correlations or differences exist in regard to the total and partial scores on the OSPE and the corresponding state examination.Methods: Within the scope of this longitudinal retrospective study, exam-specific data spanning 11 semesters for dental students (N=223 in Frankfurt am Main were collected and analyzed. Statistical analysis was carried out by calculating Spearman rank correlations, partial correlations, Pearson’s correlation coefficients, and multiple regressions (SPSS Statistics 21, IBM Corporation, New York.Results: The results show that the OSPE (Cronbach’s α=.87 correlates with level of success on the practical section of the state exam in conservative dentistry (=.01, =.17. Length of university study also emerged to correlate significantly with the state exam score (=.001, =.23. Together, these two variables contribute significantly to predicting the state exam score (=.001, =.076. This was seen extensively among female students. It was also discovered that these female students had higher school-leaving exam scores than male students (=6.09, =.01, =.027, and that a significant correlation between scores on the Physikum (preliminary exam in dental medicine and OSPE scores existed only for male students (=.17, =.01.Conclusion: This study was able to demonstrate the predictive effect of a clinical OSPE regarding scores achieved on the state exam. Taking the limitations of this study into account, we are able to recommend using

  6. The reliability and predictive validity of a sixth-semester OSPE in conservative dentistry regarding performance on the state examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petko, Petkov; Knuth-Herzig, Katja; Hoefer, Sebastian; Stehle, Sebastian; Scherer, Sonja; Steffen, Björn; Scherzer, Stephan; Ochsendorf, Falk; Horz, Holger; Sader, Robert; Gerhardt-Szép, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The aim of this study was to ascertain whether the testing format of an OSPE (Objective Structured Practical Examination) in conservative dentistry (sixth semester) predicts the scores on the practical section of the state examination (11(th) semester) in the same subject. Taking general student profiles into consideration (score on the school-leaving exam [Abitur], score on the preliminary exam in dental medicine [Physikum], length of university study, cohorts, and sex), we also investigated if any correlations or differences exist in regard to the total and partial scores on the OSPE and the corresponding state examination. Methods: Within the scope of this longitudinal retrospective study, exam-specific data spanning 11 semesters for dental students (N=223) in Frankfurt am Main were collected and analyzed. Statistical analysis was carried out by calculating Spearman rank correlations, partial correlations, Pearson's correlation coefficients, and multiple regressions (SPSS Statistics 21, IBM Corporation, New York). Results: The results show that the OSPE (Cronbach's α=.87) correlates with level of success on the practical section of the state exam in conservative dentistry (p=.01, r=.17). Length of university study also emerged to correlate significantly with the state exam score (p=.001, r=.23). Together, these two variables contribute significantly to predicting the state exam score (p=.001, R(2) =.076). This was seen extensively among female students. It was also discovered that these female students had higher school-leaving exam scores than male students (F=6.09, p=.01, η(2) =.027), and that a significant correlation between scores on the Physikum (preliminary exam in dental medicine) and OSPE scores existed only for male students (r=.17, p=.01). Conclusion: This study was able to demonstrate the predictive effect of a clinical OSPE regarding scores achieved on the state exam. Taking the limitations of this study into account, we are able to

  7. A New Approach for Reliability Life Prediction of Rail Vehicle Axle by Considering Vibration Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meral Bayraktar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of vibration on the axle has been considered. Vibration measurements at different speeds have been performed on the axle of a running rail vehicle to figure out displacement, acceleration, time, and frequency response. Based on the experimental works, equivalent stress has been used to find out life of the axles for 90% and 10% reliability. Calculated life values of the rail vehicle axle have been compared with the real life data and it is found that the life of a vehicle axle taking into account the vibration effects is in good agreement with the real life of the axle.

  8. Development of a novel location-based assessment of sensory symptoms in cancer patients: preliminary reliability and validity assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkey, Adam R; Kanetsky, Peter A

    2009-05-01

    We report on the development of a novel location-based assessment of sensory symptoms in cancer (L-BASIC) instrument, and its initial estimates of reliability and validity. L-BASIC is structured so that patients provide a numeric score and an adjectival description for any sensory symptom, including both pain and neuropathic sensations, present in each of the 10 predefined body areas. Ninety-seven patients completed the baseline questionnaire; 39 completed the questionnaire on two occasions. A mean of 3.5 body parts was scored per patient. On average, 2.7 (of 11) descriptor categories were used per body part. There was good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha=0.74) for a four-item scale that combined location-specific metrics. Temporal stability was adequate (kappa>0.50 and r>0.60 for categorical and continuous variables, respectively) among patients without observed or reported subjective change in clinical status between L-BASIC administrations. We compared our four-item scale against scores obtained from validated pain and quality-of-life (QOL) scales, and as expected, correlations were higher for pain-related items than for QOL-related items. We detected differences in L-BASIC responses among patients with cancer-related head or neck pain, chemotherapy-related neuropathy and breast cancer-related lymphedema. We conclude that L-BASIC provides internally consistent and temporally stable responses, while acknowledging that further refinement and testing of this novel instrument are necessary. We anticipate that future versions of L-BASIC will provide reliable and valid syndrome-specific measurement of defined clinical pain and symptom constructs in the cancer population, which may be of particular value in assessing treatment response in patients with such multiple complaints.

  9. Validating a Hazardous Drinking Index in a Sample of Sexual Minority Women: Reliability, Validity and Predictive Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Barth B.; Hughes, Tonda L.; Wilsnack, Sharon C.; Johnson, Timothy P.; Benson, Perry; Aranda, Frances

    2017-01-01

    Background Although sexual minority women (SMW) are at increased risk of hazardous drinking (HD), efforts to validate HD measures have yet to focus on this population. Objectives Validation of a 13-item Hazardous Drinking Index (HDI) in a large sample of SMW. Methods Data were from 700 adult SMW (age 18–82) enrolled in the Chicago Health and Life Experiences of Women study. Criterion measures included counts of depressive symptoms and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, average daily and 30-day ethanol consumption, risky sexual behavior, and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-IV) measures of alcohol abuse/dependence. Analyses included assessment of internal consistency, construction of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to predict alcohol abuse/dependence, and correlations between HDI and criterion measures. We compared the psychometric properties (diagnostic accuracy and correlates of hazardous drinking) of the HDI to the commonly used CAGE instrument. Results KR-20 reliability for the HDI was 0.80, compared to 0.74 for the CAGE. Predictive accuracy, as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for alcohol abuse/dependence, was HDI: 0.89; CAGE: 0.84. The HDI evidenced the best predictive efficacy and tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity. Results supported the concurrent validity of the HDI measure. Conclusions The Hazardous Drinking Index is a reliable and valid measure of hazardous drinking for sexual minority women. PMID:27661289

  10. Social Avoidance and Distress Scale (SAD and Fear of Negative Evaluation Scale (FNE – reliability and the preliminary assessment of validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sobański, Jerzy A.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Assessment of reliability, cross-validity and usefulness in everyday clinical practice of two related tools: Social Avoidance and Distress Scale (SAD and Fear of Negative Evaluation Scale (FNE.Material and method. Analysis of tests results of 453 females and 172 males diagnosed in the years 2008-2010 in the Outpatient Clinic for Neurotic and Behavioral Disorders of the Cracow University Hospital, including, inter alia, results of the questionnaires SAD and FNE. The scales have been, with the consent of their authors (R. Friend and the copyright holder (APA, translated into Polish and back-translated. Subjects also completed the symptom checklist KO ‘0 ‘(n = 512, and neurotic personality questionnaire KON-2006 (n = 505, as well as the NEO-PI-R personality inventory (n = 46. The reliability and cross-validity coefficients of Polish versions were assessed in the patient population and their results were compared with those of the group of 75 medical students.Results. The translation was verified by retranslation. The reliability coefficients of Polish version of the SAD and FNE scales turned out to be high - Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.94 for both scales, Guttman’s split-half reliability coefficient 0.93. Correlations with symptom checklist KO ‘0 ‘and neurotic personality questionnaire KON-2006, as well as with the NEO-PI-R personality inventory were significant and indicate a good cross-validity of the analyzed tools. The average results in the patient population for both scales were significantly higher than the results in the preliminary control group of medical students.Conclusions. Polish versions of SAD and FNE questionnaires, like their other translations from English, proved to be reliable and have a high cross-validity with other original Polish tools used in the diagnosis of neurotic disorders, which allows to recommend them to be used in further studies, also in comparing healthy persons with those suffering from

  11. Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p < 0.0001). The estimated perioperative risk by each model was used to develop an algorithm to predict long-term death. The hazard ratios for death were 1.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.12) for European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo

  12. Prediction of Osteoporosis through Radiographic Assessment of Proximal Femoral Morphology and Texture in Elderly; is it Valid and Reliable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özkan Köse

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the best predictive radiographic measurement method to identify the presence of osteoporosis and test the inter-observer and intra-observer reliability and validity of these methods in postmenopausal women. Materials and Methods: Ninety-two elderly female patients who presented with hip pain were included. Hip radiographs were used to determine the values of Singh index (SI, canal-to-calcar ratio (CCR, and cortical thickness index (CTI. All measurements were performed by two independent observers on two separate occasions, at least 4 weeks apart. Bone mineral density (BMD was assessed by DEXA. In the first part of the analysis, reliability of the all measurement methods was tested. In the second part, correlation coefficient (Pearson r was used to determine the relationship between the measurement methods and BMD. Finally ROC curve analysis was performed to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and threshold values for each radiographic measurement method. Results: Intra-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.359 for observer A, and 0.224 for observer B. Inter-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.070 for observer A and 0.051 for observer B. The intra-observer and inter-observer reliability was good and excellent for CTI and CCR for both observers (ICC: 0.920 and ICC: 0.936. There was no correlation between SI and BMD (p=0.818. On the other hand, there was a significant correlation between CTI and CCR and BMD (p=0.001. All measured indices were significantly different (p<0.05 between osteoporotic and non-osteoporotic patients. CTI value less than 0.3 or CCR value less than 0.47 reflects the presence of osteoporosis with 100% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Conclusion: SI is not reliable and do not correlate with BMD. However, both CTI and CCR showed good and excellent reliability, and each index correlated well with the real BMD

  13. Predictability and Reliability of Different Anterio-Posterior Skeletal Discrepancy Indicators in Different Age Groups - A Cephalometric Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Rana; Gupta, Abhishek; Joshi, Rishi; Tiwari, Anil; Sen, Priyank

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The lateral cephalometric skeletal discrepancy indicators play a major role in diagnosing and preparing a case for orthognathic surgeries and the dentofacial corrections. Aim The study was aimed to check the reliability and the predictability of different anterio-posterior skeletal discrepancy indicators in different age groups and to derive the most reliable indicator for the orthodontic diagnosis. Materials and Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 100 subjects including 29 adolescent (15 males and 14 females) and 71 adult (41 males and 30 females) subjects with the mean age of 19.05 ± 5.78 years. All the subjects had Angle’s Class I molar relationship. The lateral cephalograms of the sample were taken under the standard setting and hand tracing of the cephalometric radiographs using a sharp 4H pencil were made on acetate tracing paper. The anterio-posterior cephalometric indicators like β-angle, Wits appraisal (mm), Sella- Nasion plane to Point A and Point B distance (SN-AB mm) and Maxillo-Mandibular plane angle bisector to Point A and Point B distance (MM-AB mm) were measured. Intra-examiner reliability of tracings was evaluated using Intra Class Correlation (ICC) test. Mann Whitney U-test was applied for comparison of parameters between different malocclusion groups. Concurrent validity of various parameters was calculated using Cohen’s kappa. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results The comparison of intra-examiner reliability of tracings in Angle’s Class I adolescent group showed, MM-AB to have an almost perfect agreement followed by Wits. Intra-examiner reliability of tracings in Angle’s Class I adult group showed moderate agreement for Wits and MM-AB showed almost perfect agreement and all the parameters showed statistically significant ICC. Comparison of parameters between adolescent and adult, Angle’s Class I malocclusion group showed significant difference between adolescent and

  14. Prediction of sand production onset in petroleum reservoirs using a reliable classification approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Gharagheizi

    2017-06-01

    It is shown that the developed model can accurately predict the sand production in a real field. The results of this study indicates that implementation of LSSVM modeling can effectively help completion designers to make an on time sand control plan with least deterioration of production.

  15. Individual variation in avian reproductive physiology does not reliably predict variation in laying date

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaper, Sonja V.; Dawson, Alistair; Sharp, Peter J.; Caro, Samuel P.; Visser, Marcel E.

    2012-01-01

    Most animals reproduce seasonally. They time their reproduction in response to environmental cues, like increasing photoperiod and temperature, which are predictive for the time of high food availability. Although individuals of a population use the same cues, they vary in their onset of reproductio

  16. Noninvasively derived stroke volume variation by finger volume clamping can reliably predict fluid responsiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Jaap Jan; Poterman, Marieke; Struys, Michel; Scheeren, Thomas; Kalmar, A.F.

    2013-01-01

    Background and Goal of Study:  Dynamic preload variables derived from the arterial pressure waveform have been shown to accurately predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. One of these variables, stroke volume variation (SVV), can also be obtained noninvasively by the finger

  17. Identification of the best DFT functionals for a reliable prediction of lignin vibrational properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barsberg, Soren

    2015-01-01

    set was used. B98, X3LYP and B97-1 were the overall best-performing functionals, and “fingerprint” band positions were predicted by single-factor scaling of harmonic frequencies to an average error of ±3 cm−1 by optimized scaling factors of 1.017, 1.021 and 1.016, respectively. Their performance using...

  18. Are Available Models Reliable for Predicting the FRP Contribution to the Shear Resistance of RC Beams?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sas, G.; Täljsten, Björn; Barros, J.;

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the trustworthiness of the existing theory for predicting the fiber-reinforced plastic contribution to the shear resistance of reinforced concrete beams is discussed. The most well-known shear models for external bonded reinforcement are presented, commented on, and compared...

  19. Serum interleukin -8 is not a reliable marker for prediction of vesicoureteral reflux in children with febrile urinary tract infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazl Mahyar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In view of the side effects of voiding cystourethrography (VCUG, identification of noninvasive markers predicting the presence of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR is important. This study was conducted to determine the predictive value of serum interleukin-8 (IL-8 in diagnosis of VUR in children with first febrile urinary tract infection (UTI. Materials and Methods: Eighty children with first febrile UTI were divided into two groups, with and without VUR, based on the results of VCUG. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value positive and negative likelihood ratio, and accuracy of IL-8 for prediction of VUR were investigated. Results: Of the 80 children with febrile UTI, 30 (37.5% had VUR. There was no significant difference between the children with and without VUR and also between low and high-grade VUR groups in terms of serum concentration of IL-8 (P>0.05. Based on ROC curve, the sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio positive, and accuracy of serum IL-8 was lower than those of erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C-reactive protein. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed significant positive correlation only between erythrocyte sedimentation rate and VUR. Conclusions: This study showed no significant difference between the children with and without VUR in terms of the serum concentration of IL-8. Therefore, it seems that serum IL-8 is not a reliable marker for prediction of VUR.

  20. Improving Predictions with Reliable Extrapolation Schemes and Better Understanding of Factorization

    CERN Document Server

    More, Sushant N

    2016-01-01

    We investigate two distinct sources of uncertainty in low-energy nuclear physics calculations and develop ways to account for them. Harmonic oscillator basis expansions are widely used in ab-initio nuclear structure calculations. Finite computational resources usually require that the basis be truncated before observables are fully converged, necessitating reliable extrapolation schemes. We show that a finite oscillator basis effectively imposes a hard-wall boundary condition. We accurately determine the position of the hard-wall as a function of oscillator space parameters, derive extrapolation formulas for the energy and other observables, and discuss the extension of this approach to higher angular momentum. Nucleon knockout reactions have been widely used to study and understand nuclear properties. Such an analysis implicitly assumes that the effects of the probe can be separated from the physics of the target nucleus. This factorization between nuclear structure and reaction components depends on the ren...

  1. Climatic Reliability of Electronics: Early Prediction and Control of Contamination and humidity effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verdingovas, Vadimas

    assuming parasitic circuit due to water layer formation on the PCBA surface. The chapters 2-5 review the factors influencing the climatic reliability of electronics namely humidity interaction with materials and ionic contamination on the PCBA surface, common types and sources of ionic contamination...... intended for publication in international journals. Prior to the appended papers, chapter 7 provides a short summary of appended papers with important results and discussion. The results are summarized in 8 papers, presented in chapters 8-15. Papers 1-3 investigate the interaction between ionic...... contaminants i.e. NaCl, flux residues, WOAs and humidity, and their effects on leakage current, corrosion and electrochemical migration. Paper 4 compares the two types of ionic contamination i.e. NaCl and flux residue in terms of their impact on leakage currents and probability for electrochemical migration...

  2. Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading: A preliminary investigation of confidence interval overlap to detect reliable growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Norman, Ethan R

    2016-09-01

    Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) progress monitoring data is used to measure student response to instruction. Federal legislation permits educators to use CBM-R progress monitoring data as a basis for determining the presence of specific learning disabilities. However, decision making frameworks originally developed for CBM-R progress monitoring data were not intended for such high stakes assessments. Numerous documented issues with trend line estimation undermine the validity of using slope estimates to infer progress. One proposed recommendation is to use confidence interval overlap as a means of judging reliable growth. This project explored the degree to which confidence interval overlap was related to true growth magnitude using simulation methodology. True and observed CBM-R scores were generated across 7 durations of data collection (range 6-18 weeks), 3 levels of dataset quality or residual variance (5, 10, and 15 words read correct per minute) and 2 types of data collection schedules. Descriptive and inferential analyses were conducted to explore interactions between overlap status, progress monitoring scenarios, and true growth magnitude. A small but statistically significant interaction was observed between overlap status, duration, and dataset quality, b = -0.004, t(20992) =-7.96, p < .001. In general, confidence interval overlap does not appear to meaningfully account for variance in true growth across many progress monitoring conditions. Implications for research and practice are discussed. Limitations and directions for future research are addressed. (PsycINFO Database Record

  3. Reliability prediction of I&C cable insulation materials by DSC and Weibull theory for probabilistic safety assessment of NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santhosh, T.V., E-mail: santutv@barc.gov.in [Reactor Safety Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (India); Gopika, V. [Reactor Safety Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (India); Ghosh, A.K. [Raja Ramanna Fellow, Department of Atomic Energy (India); Fernandes, B.G. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (India); Dubey, K.A. [Radiation Technology Development Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (India)

    2016-01-15

    Highlights: • An approach for time dependent reliability prediction of I&C cable insulation materials for use in PSA of NPP has been developed based on OIT and OITp measurement, and Weibull theory. • OITs were determined from the measured OITp based on the fundamental thermodynamics principles, and the correlations obtained from DSC and FTIR are in good agreement with the EAB. • The SEM of thermal and irradiated samples of insulation materials was performed to support the degradation behaviour observed from OIT and EAB measurements. • The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal and radiation ageing data on low voltage cables used in NPP for I&C applications. • The time dependent reliability predicted from the OIT based on Weibull theory will be useful in incorporating the cable ageing into PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I&C) cables used in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are exposed to various deteriorative environmental effects during their operational lifetime. The factors consisting of long-term irradiation and enhanced temperature eventually result in insulation degradation. Monitoring of the actual state of the cable insulation and the prediction of their residual service life consist of the measurement of the properties that are directly proportional to the functionality of the cables (usually, elongation at break is used as the critical parameter). Although, several condition monitoring (CM) and life estimation techniques are available, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach towards incorporating the cable ageing effects into probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of NPPs. In view of this, accelerated thermal and radiation ageing of I&C cable insulation materials have been carried out and the degradation due to thermal and radiation ageing has been assessed using oxidation induction time (OIT) and oxidation induction temperature (OITp) measurements by differential scanning

  4. The reliability and predictive ability of a biomarker of oxidative DNA damage on functional outcomes after stroke rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yu-Wei; Lin, Keh-Chung; Korivi, Mallikarjuna; Lee, Tsong-Hai; Wu, Ching-Yi; Wu, Kuen-Yuh

    2014-04-16

    We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient=0.76). Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) and Medical Research Council (MRC) scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r=-0.38, r=-0.30; pAfter rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r=-0.34) and 8-OHdG and pain (r=0.26, pafter rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research.

  5. Validity and reliability of bioelectrical impedance analysis and skinfold thickness in predicting body fat in military personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aandstad, Anders; Holtberget, Kristian; Hageberg, Rune; Holme, Ingar; Anderssen, Sigmund A

    2014-02-01

    Previous studies show that body composition is related to injury risk and physical performance in soldiers. Thus, valid methods for measuring body composition in military personnel are needed. The frequently used body mass index method is not a valid measure of body composition in soldiers, but reliability and validity of alternative field methods are less investigated in military personnel. Thus, we carried out test and retest of skinfold (SKF), single frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (SF-BIA), and multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements in 65 male and female soldiers. Several validated equations were used to predict percent body fat from these methods. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was also measured, and acted as the criterion method. Results showed that SF-BIA was the most reliable method in both genders. In women, SF-BIA was also the most valid method, whereas SKF or a combination of SKF and SF-BIA produced the highest validity in men. Reliability and validity varied substantially among the equations examined. The best methods and equations produced test-retest 95% limits of agreement below ±1% points, whereas the corresponding validity figures were ±3.5% points. Each investigator and practitioner must consider whether such measurement errors are acceptable for its specific use. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  6. The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yu-Wei; Lin, Keh-Chung; Korivi, Mallikarjuna; Lee, Tsong-Hai; Wu, Ching-Yi; Wu, Kuen-Yuh

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76). Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) and Medical Research Council (MRC) scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34) and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research. PMID:24743892

  7. Reliability-based service life prediction of existing concrete structures under marine environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴灵杰; 周拥军; 寇新建; 蒋萌

    2015-01-01

    Chloride-induced corrosion of the reinforcement is considered as one of the major mechanisms resulting in the reduction of structural resistance of reinforced concrete structural elements located in marine and other aggressive environments. A study of reinforced concrete structures located at the Fangcheng dock in the Beibu Gulf port, China, was present. The result from field survey indicates that the concrete cover depth and chloride diffusion coefficient fit best normal distribution and lognormal distribution, respectively. The service life of structure is about 55 a, while initiation time is 45 a. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the most influential factor of the structure service life prediction is concrete cover, followed by diffusion coefficient, diffusion decay index, critical chloride concentration, surface chloride concentration, current density and localized pitting corrosion. Finally, the effects of diffusion decay index and critical chloride concentration on structure service life prediction are discussed.

  8. Parametric Fuselage Geometry Generation and Aerodynamic Performance Prediction in Preliminary Rotorcraft Design

    OpenAIRE

    Kunze, Philipp

    2013-01-01

    The creation of an integrated rotorcraft conceptual and preliminary design framework at DLR involved the development of geometry and fuselage aerodynamics modules at the Institute of Aerodynamics and Flow Technology. After a short revision of the RIDE rotorcraft design environment architecture this paper focuses on the implementation of these disciplinary modules. The aim of the geometry module is to bridge the gap between conceptual and preliminary design and to allow for geometry parameter ...

  9. Amino acid composition analysis of human secondary transport proteins and implications for reliable membrane topology prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saidijam, Massoud; Azizpour, Sonia; Patching, Simon G

    2016-07-08

    Secondary transporters in humans are a large group of proteins that transport a wide range of ions, metals, organic and inorganic solutes involved in energy transduction, control of membrane potential and osmotic balance, metabolic processes and in the absorption or efflux of drugs and xenobiotics. They are also emerging as important targets for development of new drugs and as target sites for drug delivery to specific organs or tissues. We have performed amino acid composition (AAC) and phylogenetic analyses and membrane topology predictions for 336 human secondary transport proteins and used the results to confirm protein classification and to look for trends and correlations with structural domains and specific substrates and/or function. Some proteins showed statistically high contents of individual amino acids or of groups of amino acids with similar physicochemical properties. One recurring trend was a correlation between high contents of charged and/or polar residues with misleading results in predictions of membrane topology, which was especially prevalent in Mitochondrial Carrier family proteins. We demonstrate how charged or polar residues located in the middle of transmembrane helices can interfere with their identification by membrane topology tools resulting in missed helices in the prediction. Comparison of AAC in the human proteins with that in 235 secondary transport proteins from Escherichia coli revealed similar overall trends along with differences in average contents for some individual amino acids and groups of similar amino acids that are presumed to result from a greater number of functions and complexity in the higher organism.

  10. Predictive validity and reliability of the Braden scale for risk assessment of pressure ulcers in an intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima-Serrano, M; González-Méndez, M I; Martín-Castaño, C; Alonso-Araujo, I; Lima-Rodríguez, J S

    2017-02-15

    Contribution to validation of the Braden scale in patients admitted to the ICU, based on an analysis of its reliability and predictive validity. An analytical, observational, longitudinal prospective study was carried out. Intensive Care Unit, Hospital Virgen del Rocío, Seville (Spain). Patients aged 18years or older and admitted for over 24hours to the ICU were included. Patients with pressure ulcers upon admission were excluded. A total of 335 patients were enrolled in two study periods of one month each. None. The presence of gradei-iv pressure ulcers was regarded as the main or dependent variable. Three categories were considered (demographic, clinical and prognostic) for the remaining variables. The incidence of patients who developed pressure ulcers was 8.1%. The proportion of gradei andii pressure ulcer was 40.6% and 59.4% respectively, highlighting the sacrum as the most frequently affected location. Cronbach's alpha coefficient in the assessments considered indicated good to moderate reliability. In the three evaluations made, a cutoff point of 12 was presented as optimal in the assessment of the first and second days of admission. In relation to the assessment of the day with minimum score, the optimal cutoff point was 10. The Braden scale shows insufficient predictive validity and poor precision for cutoff points of both 18 and 16, which are those accepted in the different clinical scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  11. The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Wei Hsieh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG, and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76. Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA and Medical Research Council (MRC scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p < 0.05. After rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34 and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p < 0.05. Baseline 8-OHdG was significantly correlated with post-treatment FMA, MRC, and pain scores (r = −0.34, −0.31, and 0.25; p < 0.05, indicating its ability to predict functional outcomes. 8-OHdG levels were significantly decreased, and functional outcomes were improved after rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research.

  12. Modified Inverse First Order Reliability Method (I-FORM) for Predicting Extreme Sea States.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Dallman, Ann Renee; Neary, Vincent Sinclair

    2014-09-01

    Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulation s as a part of the stand ard current practice for designing marine structure s to survive extreme sea states. Such environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height ( ) and energy period ( ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first - order reliability method (IFORM) i s standard design practice for generating environmental contours. In this paper, the traditional appli cation of the IFORM to generating environmental contours representing extreme sea states is described in detail and its merits and drawbacks are assessed. The application of additional methods for analyzing sea state data including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the data under consideration is proposed. A reexamination of the components of the IFORM application to the problem at hand including the use of new distribution fitting techniques are shown to contribute to the development of more accurate a nd reasonable representations of extreme sea states for use in survivability analysis for marine struc tures. Keywords: In verse FORM, Principal Component Analysis , Environmental Contours, Extreme Sea State Characteri zation, Wave Energy Converters

  13. CCTop: An Intuitive, Flexible and Reliable CRISPR/Cas9 Target Prediction Tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Stemmer

    Full Text Available Engineering of the CRISPR/Cas9 system has opened a plethora of new opportunities for site-directed mutagenesis and targeted genome modification. Fundamental to this is a stretch of twenty nucleotides at the 5' end of a guide RNA that provides specificity to the bound Cas9 endonuclease. Since a sequence of twenty nucleotides can occur multiple times in a given genome and some mismatches seem to be accepted by the CRISPR/Cas9 complex, an efficient and reliable in silico selection and evaluation of the targeting site is key prerequisite for the experimental success. Here we present the CRISPR/Cas9 target online predictor (CCTop, http://crispr.cos.uni-heidelberg.de to overcome limitations of already available tools. CCTop provides an intuitive user interface with reasonable default parameters that can easily be tuned by the user. From a given query sequence, CCTop identifies and ranks all candidate sgRNA target sites according to their off-target quality and displays full documentation. CCTop was experimentally validated for gene inactivation, non-homologous end-joining as well as homology directed repair. Thus, CCTop provides the bench biologist with a tool for the rapid and efficient identification of high quality target sites.

  14. Detecting reliable non interacting proteins (NIPs) significantly enhancing the computational prediction of protein-protein interactions using machine learning methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, A; Mazzocco, G; Kel, A; Wyrwicz, L S; Plewczynski, D

    2016-03-01

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) play a vital role in most biological processes. Hence their comprehension can promote a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying living systems. However, besides the cost and the time limitation involved in the detection of experimentally validated PPIs, the noise in the data is still an important issue to overcome. In the last decade several in silico PPI prediction methods using both structural and genomic information were developed for this purpose. Here we introduce a unique validation approach aimed to collect reliable non interacting proteins (NIPs). Thereafter the most relevant protein/protein-pair related features were selected. Finally, the prepared dataset was used for PPI classification, leveraging the prediction capabilities of well-established machine learning methods. Our best classification procedure displayed specificity and sensitivity values of 96.33% and 98.02%, respectively, surpassing the prediction capabilities of other methods, including those trained on gold standard datasets. We showed that the PPI/NIP predictive performances can be considerably improved by focusing on data preparation.

  15. Reliable B cell epitope predictions: impacts of method development and improved benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kringelum, Jens Vindahl; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole; Nielsen, Morten

    2012-01-01

    The interaction between antibodies and antigens is one of the most important immune system mechanisms for clearing infectious organisms from the host. Antibodies bind to antigens at sites referred to as B-cell epitopes. Identification of the exact location of B-cell epitopes is essential in several biomedical applications such as; rational vaccine design, development of disease diagnostics and immunotherapeutics. However, experimental mapping of epitopes is resource intensive making in silico methods an appealing complementary approach. To date, the reported performance of methods for in silico mapping of B-cell epitopes has been moderate. Several issues regarding the evaluation data sets may however have led to the performance values being underestimated: Rarely, all potential epitopes have been mapped on an antigen, and antibodies are generally raised against the antigen in a given biological context not against the antigen monomer. Improper dealing with these aspects leads to many artificial false positive predictions and hence to incorrect low performance values. To demonstrate the impact of proper benchmark definitions, we here present an updated version of the DiscoTope method incorporating a novel spatial neighborhood definition and half-sphere exposure as surface measure. Compared to other state-of-the-art prediction methods, Discotope-2.0 displayed improved performance both in cross-validation and in independent evaluations. Using DiscoTope-2.0, we assessed the impact on performance when using proper benchmark definitions. For 13 proteins in the training data set where sufficient biological information was available to make a proper benchmark redefinition, the average AUC performance was improved from 0.791 to 0.824. Similarly, the average AUC performance on an independent evaluation data set improved from 0.712 to 0.727. Our results thus demonstrate that given proper benchmark definitions, B-cell epitope prediction methods achieve highly significant

  16. Reliable B cell epitope predictions: impacts of method development and improved benchmarking.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens Vindahl Kringelum

    Full Text Available The interaction between antibodies and antigens is one of the most important immune system mechanisms for clearing infectious organisms from the host. Antibodies bind to antigens at sites referred to as B-cell epitopes. Identification of the exact location of B-cell epitopes is essential in several biomedical applications such as; rational vaccine design, development of disease diagnostics and immunotherapeutics. However, experimental mapping of epitopes is resource intensive making in silico methods an appealing complementary approach. To date, the reported performance of methods for in silico mapping of B-cell epitopes has been moderate. Several issues regarding the evaluation data sets may however have led to the performance values being underestimated: Rarely, all potential epitopes have been mapped on an antigen, and antibodies are generally raised against the antigen in a given biological context not against the antigen monomer. Improper dealing with these aspects leads to many artificial false positive predictions and hence to incorrect low performance values. To demonstrate the impact of proper benchmark definitions, we here present an updated version of the DiscoTope method incorporating a novel spatial neighborhood definition and half-sphere exposure as surface measure. Compared to other state-of-the-art prediction methods, Discotope-2.0 displayed improved performance both in cross-validation and in independent evaluations. Using DiscoTope-2.0, we assessed the impact on performance when using proper benchmark definitions. For 13 proteins in the training data set where sufficient biological information was available to make a proper benchmark redefinition, the average AUC performance was improved from 0.791 to 0.824. Similarly, the average AUC performance on an independent evaluation data set improved from 0.712 to 0.727. Our results thus demonstrate that given proper benchmark definitions, B-cell epitope prediction methods achieve

  17. Reliable prediction of T-cell epitopes using neural networks with novel sequence representations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lundegaard, Claus; Worning, Peder

    2003-01-01

    of several neural networks derived using different sequence-encoding schemes has a performance superior to neural networks derived using a single sequence-encoding scheme. The new method is shown to have a performance that is substantially higher than that of other methods. By use of mutual information...... derived from different and novel sequence-encoding schemes and the ability of the neural network to be trained on data consisting of continuous binding affinities that gives the new method an improved performance. The difference in predictive performance between the neural network methods...

  18. A Numerical Round Robin for the Reliability Prediction of Structural Ceramics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.

    1993-01-01

    A round robin has been conducted on integrated fast fracture design programs for brittle materials. An informal working group (WELFEP-WEakest Link failure probability prediction by Finite Element Postprocessors) was formed to discuss and evaluate the implementation of the programs examined in the study. Results from the study have provided insight on the differences between the various programs examined. Conclusions from the study have shown that when brittle materials are used in design, analysis must understand how to apply the concepts presented herein to failure probability analysis.

  19. Planning Irreversible Electroporation in the Porcine Kidney: Are Numerical Simulations Reliable for Predicting Empiric Ablation Outcomes?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wimmer, Thomas, E-mail: thomas.wimmer@medunigraz.at; Srimathveeravalli, Govindarajan; Gutta, Narendra [Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Interventional Radiology Service, Department of Radiology (United States); Ezell, Paula C. [The Rockefeller University, Research Animal Resource Center, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Weill Cornell Medical College (United States); Monette, Sebastien [The Rockefeller University, Laboratory of Comparative Pathology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Weill Cornell Medical College (United States); Maybody, Majid; Erinjery, Joseph P.; Durack, Jeremy C. [Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Interventional Radiology Service, Department of Radiology (United States); Coleman, Jonathan A. [Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Urology Service, Department of Surgery (United States); Solomon, Stephen B. [Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Interventional Radiology Service, Department of Radiology (United States)

    2015-02-15

    PurposeNumerical simulations are used for treatment planning in clinical applications of irreversible electroporation (IRE) to determine ablation size and shape. To assess the reliability of simulations for treatment planning, we compared simulation results with empiric outcomes of renal IRE using computed tomography (CT) and histology in an animal model.MethodsThe ablation size and shape for six different IRE parameter sets (70–90 pulses, 2,000–2,700 V, 70–100 µs) for monopolar and bipolar electrodes was simulated using a numerical model. Employing these treatment parameters, 35 CT-guided IRE ablations were created in both kidneys of six pigs and followed up with CT immediately and after 24 h. Histopathology was analyzed from postablation day 1.ResultsAblation zones on CT measured 81 ± 18 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.05) and 115 ± 18 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.09) of the simulated size for monopolar electrodes, and 190 ± 33 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.001) and 234 ± 12 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.0001) for bipolar electrodes. Histopathology indicated smaller ablation zones than simulated (71 ± 41 %, p ≤ 0.047) and measured on CT (47 ± 16 %, p ≤ 0.005) with complete ablation of kidney parenchyma within the central zone and incomplete ablation in the periphery.ConclusionBoth numerical simulations for planning renal IRE and CT measurements may overestimate the size of ablation compared to histology, and ablation effects may be incomplete in the periphery.

  20. Cross Cultural Adaptation, Validity, and Reliability of the Farsi Breastfeeding Attrition Prediction Tools in Iranian Pregnant Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortazavi, Forough; Mousavi, Seyed Abbas; Chaman, Reza; Khosravi, Ahmad; Janke, Jill R.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The rate of exclusive breastfeeding in Iran is decreasing. The breastfeeding attrition prediction tools (BAPT) have been validated and used in predicting premature weaning. Objectives: We aimed to translate the BAPT into Farsi, assess its content validity, and examine its reliability and validity to identify exclusive breastfeeding discontinuation in Iran. Materials and Methods: The BAPT was translated into Farsi and the content validity of the Farsi version of the BAPT was assessed. It was administered to 356 pregnant women in the third trimester of pregnancy, who were residents of a city in northeast of Iran. The structural integrity of the four-factor model was assessed in confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient and item-subscale correlations. Validity was assessed using the known-group comparison (128 with vs. 228 without breastfeeding experience) and predictive validity (80 successes vs. 265 failures in exclusive breastfeeding). Results: The internal consistency of the whole instrument (49 items) was 0.775. CFA provided an acceptable fit to the a priori four-factor model (Chi-square/df = 1.8, Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.049, Standardized Root Mean Square Residual (SRMR) = 0.064, Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.911). The difference in means of breastfeeding control (BFC) between the participants with and without breastfeeding experience was significant (P BFC) subscale were higher in women who were on exclusive breastfeeding than women who were not, at four months postpartum (P < 0.05). Conclusions: This study validated the Farsi version of BAPT. It is useful for researchers who want to use it in Iran to identify women at higher risks of Exclusive Breast Feeding (EBF) discontinuation. PMID:26019910

  1. Habitual pelvic posture and time spent sitting: Measurement test–retest reliability for the LUMOback device and preliminary evidence for slouched posture in individuals with low back pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takasaki, Hiroshi

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: It has been difficult to monitor the pelvic position during actual daily life. However, recent developments in wearable device technologies, such as the LUMOback device, provide the possibility to evaluate habitual pelvic posture and time spent sitting during daily life. The current study aimed (1) to investigate test–retest reliability for habitual pelvic posture and time spent sitting with the LUMOback in individuals with prolonged low back pain (low back pain group) and without low back pain (control group), and (2) to preliminarily investigate differences in those measures between groups. Methods: Fifteen individuals in each group wore the LUMOback daily for 2 weeks. Intraclass correlation coefficients were calculated in each group by comparing the mean from the first week with the mean from the second week: (1) for the posture score, which is a proportion of time with neutral posture, and (2) for time spent sitting. The two measures for the first week were compared between the low back pain and control groups. Results: The intraclass correlation coefficients for the posture score were .82 in the low back pain group and .91 in the control group. The intraclass correlation coefficients for time spent sitting were .75 in the low back pain group and .85 in the control group. The posture score in the low back pain group (mean ± SD: 37.5% ± 10.3%) was less than that in the control group (49.6% ± 6.0%; p  .05). Conclusions: The current study found (1) acceptable test–retest reliability for the posture score and time spent sitting evaluated by the LUMOback device, and (2) preliminary evidence of a difference in the posture score, indicating a more slouched lumbopelvic posture in individuals with prolonged low back pain than those without low back pain. PMID:28951781

  2. Habitual pelvic posture and time spent sitting: Measurement test-retest reliability for the LUMOback device and preliminary evidence for slouched posture in individuals with low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takasaki, Hiroshi

    2017-01-01

    It has been difficult to monitor the pelvic position during actual daily life. However, recent developments in wearable device technologies, such as the LUMOback device, provide the possibility to evaluate habitual pelvic posture and time spent sitting during daily life. The current study aimed (1) to investigate test-retest reliability for habitual pelvic posture and time spent sitting with the LUMOback in individuals with prolonged low back pain (low back pain group) and without low back pain (control group), and (2) to preliminarily investigate differences in those measures between groups. Fifteen individuals in each group wore the LUMOback daily for 2 weeks. Intraclass correlation coefficients were calculated in each group by comparing the mean from the first week with the mean from the second week: (1) for the posture score, which is a proportion of time with neutral posture, and (2) for time spent sitting. The two measures for the first week were compared between the low back pain and control groups. The intraclass correlation coefficients for the posture score were .82 in the low back pain group and .91 in the control group. The intraclass correlation coefficients for time spent sitting were .75 in the low back pain group and .85 in the control group. The posture score in the low back pain group (mean ± SD: 37.5% ± 10.3%) was less than that in the control group (49.6% ± 6.0%; p  .05). The current study found (1) acceptable test-retest reliability for the posture score and time spent sitting evaluated by the LUMOback device, and (2) preliminary evidence of a difference in the posture score, indicating a more slouched lumbopelvic posture in individuals with prolonged low back pain than those without low back pain.

  3. Reliable B cell epitope predictions: impacts of method development and improved benchmarking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kringelum, Jens Vindahl; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2012-01-01

    The interaction between antibodies and antigens is one of the most important immune system mechanisms for clearing infectious organisms from the host. Antibodies bind to antigens at sites referred to as B-cell epitopes. Identification of the exact location of B-cell epitopes is essential in several...... of B-cell epitopes has been moderate. Several issues regarding the evaluation data sets may however have led to the performance values being underestimated: Rarely, all potential epitopes have been mapped on an antigen, and antibodies are generally raised against the antigen in a given biological...... context not against the antigen monomer. Improper dealing with these aspects leads to many artificial false positive predictions and hence to incorrect low performance values. To demonstrate the impact of proper benchmark definitions, we here present an updated version of the DiscoTope method...

  4. Inter-Investigator Reliability of Anthropometric Prediction of 1RM Bench Press in College Football Players

    Science.gov (United States)

    SCHUMACHER, RICHARD M.; ARABAS, JANA L.; MAYHEW, JERRY L.; BRECHUE, WILLIAM F.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of inter-investigator differences in anthropometric assessments on the prediction of one-repetition maximum (1RM) bench press in college football players. Division-II players (n = 34, age = 20.4 ± 1.2 y, 182.3 ± 6.6 cm, 99.1 ± 18.4 kg) were measured for selected anthropometric variables and 1RM bench press at the conclusion of a heavy resistance training program. Triceps, subscapular, and abdominal skinfolds were measured in triplicate by three investigators and used to estimate %fat. Arm circumference was measured around a flexed biceps muscle and was corrected for triceps skinfold to estimate muscle cross-sectional area (CSA). Chest circumference was measured at mid-expiration. Significant differences among the testers were evident in six of the nine anthropometric variables, with the least experienced tester being significantly different from the other testers on seven variables, although average differences among investigators ranged from 1–2% for circumferences to 4–9% for skinfolds. The two more experienced testers were significantly different on only one variable. Overall agreement among testers was high (ICC>0.895) for each variable, with low coefficients of variation (CV<10.7%). Predicted 1RMs for testers (126.9 ± 20.6, 123.4 ± 22.0, and 132.1 ± 28.4 kg, respectively) were not significantly different from actual 1RM (129.2 ± 20.6 kg). Individuals with varying levels of experience appear to have an acceptable level of ability to estimate 1RM bench press using a non-performance anthropometric equation. Minimal experience in anthropometry may not impede strength and conditioning specialists from accurately estimating 1RM bench press. PMID:27766130

  5. Understanding and predicting metallic whisker growth and its effects on reliability : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michael, Joseph Richard; Grant, Richard P.; Rodriguez, Mark Andrew; Pillars, Jamin; Susan, Donald Francis; McKenzie, Bonnie Beth; Yelton, William Graham

    2012-01-01

    Tin (Sn) whiskers are conductive Sn filaments that grow from Sn-plated surfaces, such as surface finishes on electronic packages. The phenomenon of Sn whiskering has become a concern in recent years due to requirements for lead (Pb)-free soldering and surface finishes in commercial electronics. Pure Sn finishes are more prone to whisker growth than their Sn-Pb counterparts and high profile failures due to whisker formation (causing short circuits) in space applications have been documented. At Sandia, Sn whiskers are of interest due to increased use of Pb-free commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) parts and possible future requirements for Pb-free solders and surface finishes in high-reliability microelectronics. Lead-free solders and surface finishes are currently being used or considered for several Sandia applications. Despite the long history of Sn whisker research and the recently renewed interest in this topic, a comprehensive understanding of whisker growth remains elusive. This report describes recent research on characterization of Sn whiskers with the aim of understanding the underlying whisker growth mechanism(s). The report is divided into four sections and an Appendix. In Section 1, the Sn plating process is summarized. Specifically, the Sn plating parameters that were successful in producing samples with whiskers will be reviewed. In Section 2, the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of Sn whiskers and time-lapse SEM studies of whisker growth will be discussed. This discussion includes the characterization of straight as well as kinked whiskers. In Section 3, a detailed discussion is given of SEM/EBSD (electron backscatter diffraction) techniques developed to determine the crystallography of Sn whiskers. In Section 4, these SEM/EBSD methods are employed to determine the crystallography of Sn whiskers, with a statistically significant number of whiskers analyzed. This is the largest study of Sn whisker crystallography ever reported. This section includes a

  6. Positive Skin Test or Specific IgE to Penicillin Does Not Reliably Predict Penicillin Allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tannert, Line Kring; Mørtz, Charlotte G; Skov, Per Stahl

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: According to guidelines, patients are diagnosed with penicillin allergy if skin test (ST) result or specific IgE (s-IgE) to penicillin is positive. However, the true sensitivity and specificity of these tests are presently not known. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical relevance......, but deemed allergic on the basis of a recent anaphylactic reaction or delayed reactions to skin testing. Another sample of convenience of 18 patients, 17 overlapping with the 25 challenged, with initial skin testing and s-IgE (median, 25; range, 3-121), months earlier (T-1), was repeat skin tested and had s......-IgE measured (T0), and then skin tested and had s-IgE measured 4 weeks later (T1). RESULTS: Only 9 (36%) of 25 were challenge positive. There was an increased probability of being penicillin allergic if both ST result and s-IgE were positive at T0. Positive ST result or positive s-IgE alone did not predict...

  7. Semen molecular and cellular features: these parameters can reliably predict subsequent ART outcome in a goat model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mereu Paolo

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Currently, the assessment of sperm function in a raw or processed semen sample is not able to reliably predict sperm ability to withstand freezing and thawing procedures and in vivo fertility and/or assisted reproductive biotechnologies (ART outcome. The aim of the present study was to investigate which parameters among a battery of analyses could predict subsequent spermatozoa in vitro fertilization ability and hence blastocyst output in a goat model. Ejaculates were obtained by artificial vagina from 3 adult goats (Capra hircus aged 2 years (A, B and C. In order to assess the predictive value of viability, computer assisted sperm analyzer (CASA motility parameters and ATP intracellular concentration before and after thawing and of DNA integrity after thawing on subsequent embryo output after an in vitro fertility test, a logistic regression analysis was used. Individual differences in semen parameters were evident for semen viability after thawing and DNA integrity. Results of IVF test showed that spermatozoa collected from A and B lead to higher cleavage rates (0

  8. How Reliable are Models Based on Topological Index 3χv for the Prediction of Stability Constants?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenad Raos

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The theoretical models based on valence connectivity index of the 3rd order, 3χv, have been discussed in terms of their ability to predict stability of coordination compounds. The key factors for the success are: (1 the choice of reliable experimental data for the calibration of the model, (2 writing an appropriate constitutional formula (i.e. graph of the complex, and (3 development of proper form of regression function. If these requirements were met, it is possible to obtain theoretical results comensurable with the experimental ones, i.e. of the sufficient quality to evaluate experimental methods or to propose the best values for stability constants. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

  9. Measuring physical activity-related environmental factors: reliability and predictive validity of the European environmental questionnaire ALPHA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oppert Jean-Michel

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A questionnaire to assess physical activity related environmental factors in the European population (a 49-item and an 11-item version was created as part of the framework of the EU-funded project "Instruments for Assessing Levels of PHysical Activity and fitness (ALPHA". This paper reports on the development and assessment of the questionnaire's test-retest stability, predictive validity, and applicability to European adults. Methods The first pilot test was conducted in Belgium, France and the UK. In total 190 adults completed both forms of the ALPHA questionnaire twice with a one-week interval. Physical activity was concurrently measured (i by administration of the long version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ by interview and (ii by accelerometry (Actigraph™ device. After adaptations, the second field test took place in Belgium, the UK and Austria; 166 adults completed the adapted questionnaire at two time points, with minimum one-week interval. In both field studies intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC and proportion of agreement were computed to assess the stability of the two test scores. Predictive validity was examined in the first field test by correlating the results of the questionnaires with physical activity data from accelerometry and long IPAQ-last 7 days. Results The reliability scores of the ALPHA questionnaire were moderate-to good in the first field testing (ICC range 0.66 - 0.86 and good in the second field testing (ICC range 0.71 - 0.87. The proportion of agreement for the ALPHA short increased significantly from the first (range 50 - 83% to the second field testing (range 85 - 95%. Environmental scales from both versions of the ALPHA questionnaire were significantly associated with self-reported minutes of transport-related walking, and objectively measured low intensity physical activity levels, particularly in women. Both versions were easily administered with an

  10. The McGill ingestive skills assessment predicts time to death in an elderly population with neurogenic dysphagia: preliminary evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Heather C; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Groher, Michael; Wood-Dauphinee, Sharon; Gisel, Erika G

    2005-01-01

    The McGill Ingestive Skills Assessment (MISA) is a new assessment tool which quantifies the ingestive process by scoring a meal observation. The reliability and the construct validity of the MISA have been documented. However, establishment of the ability of the MISA to predict health outcomes related to feeding difficulties would support its applicability in research and in clinical settings. Seventy-three participants of a large-scale reliability and validity study were followed for up to 563 days following evaluation with the MISA. The date of the first pulmonary infection and the date and cause of death where applicable were obtained from medical records. Individuals with no incident of pulmonary infection and who were not deceased were "censored" at the date of followup. Survival analyses revealed that the MISA scores are predictive of death using a Cox proportional hazards model, and of time to pulmonary infection using a flexible model. Scores on the Solid Ingestion and Self-feeding scales are predictive of death using the Cox model, and the Texture Management scale is predictive of death using the flexible model. This effect remains statistically significant even when MISA scores are adjusted for the participant's age. These findings support the validity of the MISA for use with elderly individuals with neurogenic ingestive skill loss residing in long-term care facilities.

  11. Population-based Stroke Atlas for outcome prediction: method and preliminary results for ischemic stroke from CT.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wieslaw L Nowinski

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Knowledge of outcome prediction is important in stroke management. We propose a lesion size and location-driven method for stroke outcome prediction using a Population-based Stroke Atlas (PSA linking neurological parameters with neuroimaging in population. The PSA aggregates data from previously treated patients and applies them to currently treated patients. The PSA parameter distribution in the infarct region of a treated patient enables prediction. We introduce a method for PSA calculation, quantify its performance, and use it to illustrate ischemic stroke outcome prediction of modified Rankin Scale (mRS and Barthel Index (BI. METHODS: The preliminary PSA was constructed from 128 ischemic stroke cases calculated for 8 variants (various data aggregation schemes and 3 case selection variables (infarct volume, NIHSS at admission, and NIHSS at day 7, each in 4 ranges. Outcome prediction for 9 parameters (mRS at 7th, and mRS and BI at 30th, 90th, 180th, 360th day was studied using a leave-one-out approach, requiring 589,824 PSA maps to be analyzed. RESULTS: Outcomes predicted for different PSA variants are statistically equivalent, so the simplest and most efficient variant aiming at parameter averaging is employed. This variant allows the PSA to be pre-calculated before prediction. The PSA constrained by infarct volume and NIHSS reduces the average prediction error (absolute difference between the predicted and actual values by a fraction of 0.796; the use of 3 patient-specific variables further lowers it by 0.538. The PSA-based prediction error for mild and severe outcomes (mRS  =  [2]-[5] is (0.5-0.7. Prediction takes about 8 seconds. CONCLUSIONS: PSA-based prediction of individual and group mRS and BI scores over time is feasible, fast and simple, but its clinical usefulness requires further studies. The case selection operation improves PSA predictability. A multiplicity of PSAs can be computed independently for

  12. Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Some preliminary evidence of long-horizon predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Wei; Nam, Deokwoo

    2011-01-01

    When prices are sticky, movements in the nominal exchange rate have a direct impact on international relative prices. A relative price misalignment would trigger an adjustment in consumption and employment, and may help to predict future movements in the exchange rate. Although purchasing-power-parity fundamentals, in general, have only weak predictability, currency misalignment may be indicated by price differentials for some goods, which could then have predictive power for subsequent re-ev...

  13. Euler Technology Assessment for Preliminary Aircraft Design: Compressibility Predictions by Employing the Cartesian Unstructured Grid SPLITFLOW Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finley, Dennis B.; Karman, Steve L., Jr.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of the second phase of the Euler Technology Assessment program was to evaluate the ability of Euler computational fluid dynamics codes to predict compressible flow effects over a generic fighter wind tunnel model. This portion of the study was conducted by Lockheed Martin Tactical Aircraft Systems, using an in-house Cartesian-grid code called SPLITFLOW. The Cartesian grid technique offers several advantages, including ease of volume grid generation and reduced number of cells compared to other grid schemes. SPLITFLOW also includes grid adaption of the volume grid during the solution to resolve high-gradient regions. The SPLITFLOW code predictions of configuration forces and moments are shown to be adequate for preliminary design, including predictions of sideslip effects and the effects of geometry variations at low and high angles-of-attack. The transonic pressure prediction capabilities of SPLITFLOW are shown to be improved over subsonic comparisons. The time required to generate the results from initial surface data is on the order of several hours, including grid generation, which is compatible with the needs of the design environment.

  14. Reliability prediction for the vehicles equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS and passive safety systems (PSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balbir S. Dhillon

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The human error has been reported as a major root cause in road accidents in today’s world. The human as a driver in road vehicles composed of human, mechanical and electrical components is constantly exposed to changing surroundings (e.g., road conditions, environmentwhich deteriorate the driver’s capacities leading to a potential accident. The auto industries and transportation authorities have realized that similar to other complex and safety sensitive transportation systems, the road vehicles need to rely on both advanced technologies (i.e., Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and Passive Safety Systems (PSS (e.g.,, seatbelts, airbags in order to mitigate the risk of accidents and casualties. In this study, the advantages and disadvantages of ADAS as active safety systems as well as passive safety systems in road vehicles have been discussed. Also, this study proposes models that analyze the interactions between human as a driver and ADAS Warning and Crash Avoidance Systems and PSS in the design of vehicles. Thereafter, the mathematical models have been developed to make reliability prediction at any given time on the road transportation for vehicles equipped with ADAS and PSS. Finally, the implications of this study in the improvement of vehicle designs and prevention of casualties are discussed.

  15. Validation of predictive equations for resting energy expenditure in Japanese pediatric Crohn's disease patients: preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arai, Katsuhiro; Funayama, Rie; Takahashi, Mieko; Sakai, Rie; Shimizu, Hirotaka; Obayashi, Naho; Matsui, Akira

    2015-04-01

    Predictive equations are often used to estimate resting energy expenditure (REE). Determining the appropriate equation for different patient types, however, remains inconclusive, as in the case of Japanese children with Crohn's disease (CD). The aim of this study was to identify an appropriate predictive equation for measuring REE in Japanese children with CD. Twelve Japanese children with CD managed at the National Center for Child Health and Development in Tokyo, Japan, were studied. REE (kcal/day) was measured using indirect calorimetry. The predictive equations used were the Japanese Dietary Reference Intakes (2010), the Schofield equation, the Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization/United Nations University (FAO/WHO/UNU) equation and the Cunningham equation. Difference between predicted and measured REE was analyzed on Bland-Altman plot. Japanese Dietary Reference Intakes (2010) had the smallest difference between predicted and measured REE. Weight was the primary predictor of REE on multiple regression analysis. As well, Japanese Dietary Reference Intakes (2010) had the highest ratio of weight to predicted REE (98.5%). Of the four equations, Japanese Dietary Reference Intakes (2010) appeared to be the most practical and accurate predictive equation for REE in Japanese children with CD. © 2014 Japan Pediatric Society.

  16. Preliminary Investigations on Uncertainty Analysis of Wind-Wave Predictions in Lake Michigan

    CERN Document Server

    Nekouee, Navid

    2015-01-01

    With all the improvement in wave and hydrodynamics numerical models, the question rises in our mind that how the accuracy of the forcing functions and their input can affect the results. In this paper, a commonly used numerical third generation wave model, SWAN is applied to predict waves in Lake Michigan. Wind data were analyzed to determine wind variation frequency over Lake Michigan. Wave predictions uncertainty due to wind local effects were compared during a period where wind had a fairly constant speed and direction over the northern and southern basins. The study shows that despite model calibration in Lake Michigan area, the model deficiency arises from ignoring wind effects in small scales. Wave prediction also emphasizes that small scale turbulence in meteorological forces can increase error in predictions up to 35%. Wave frequency and coherence analysis showed that both models are able to reveal the time scale of the wave variation with same accuracy. Insufficient number of meteorological stations ...

  17. A preliminary knowledge-driven prediction model of snail distribution in the Poyang Lake region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Present monitoring and prediction of schistosomiasis's intermediate parasite,snail,are based on remote sensing image's spectral signatures,and the calculation result iS in fact an incomplete-constraints solution.TM image of the Poyang Lake region on October 31,2005 was combined with GIS thematic data(DEM,boundary of the Poyang Lake,vegetation,soil and land use)to make a prediction on snail spatial distribution in the region by remote sensing,geo-informatics and knowledge-driven modeling according to mechanism of snail occurrence.Result shows that with change of overall fuzzy membership of snail occurrence from high to low,snail occurrence of the snail samples of validation group goes up to 81% within 10% high fuzzy membership range,denoting high efficiency of the model in predicting snail occurrence.

  18. Predicting diagnostic error in radiology via eye-tracking and image analytics: Preliminary investigation in mammography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voisin, Sophie; Tourassi, Georgia D. [Biomedical Science and Engineering Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States); Pinto, Frank [School of Engineering, Science, and Technology, Virginia State University, Petersburg, Virginia 23806 (United States); Morin-Ducote, Garnetta; Hudson, Kathleen B. [Department of Radiology, University of Tennessee Medical Center at Knoxville, Knoxville, Tennessee 37920 (United States)

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: The primary aim of the present study was to test the feasibility of predicting diagnostic errors in mammography by merging radiologists’ gaze behavior and image characteristics. A secondary aim was to investigate group-based and personalized predictive models for radiologists of variable experience levels.Methods: The study was performed for the clinical task of assessing the likelihood of malignancy of mammographic masses. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions for 40 cases were acquired from four Radiology residents and two breast imaging experts as part of an IRB-approved pilot study. Gaze behavior features were extracted from the eye-tracking data. Computer-generated and BIRADS images features were extracted from the images. Finally, machine learning algorithms were used to merge gaze and image features for predicting human error. Feature selection was thoroughly explored to determine the relative contribution of the various features. Group-based and personalized user modeling was also investigated.Results: Machine learning can be used to predict diagnostic error by merging gaze behavior characteristics from the radiologist and textural characteristics from the image under review. Leveraging data collected from multiple readers produced a reasonable group model [area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.792 ± 0.030]. Personalized user modeling was far more accurate for the more experienced readers (AUC = 0.837 ± 0.029) than for the less experienced ones (AUC = 0.667 ± 0.099). The best performing group-based and personalized predictive models involved combinations of both gaze and image features.Conclusions: Diagnostic errors in mammography can be predicted to a good extent by leveraging the radiologists’ gaze behavior and image content.

  19. Strain Elastography for Prediction of Malignancy in Soft Tissue Tumours--Preliminary Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riishede, I; Ewertsen, C; Carlsen, J;

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: To evaluate the ability of strain elastography to predict malignancy in patients with soft tissue tumors, and to compare three evaluation methods of strain elastography: strain ratios, strain histograms and visual scoring. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 60 patients with 61 tumors were analyzed i...

  20. Preliminary genomic predictions of feed saved for 1.4 million Holsteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genomic predictions of transmitting ability (GPTAs) for residual feed intake (RFI) were computed using data from 4,621 42-day and 202 28-day feed intake trials of 3,947 U.S. Holsteins born 1999-2013 in 9 research herds. The 28-day records had 8.5% larger error variance than 42-day records and receiv...

  1. Deregressed EBV as the response variable yield more reliable genomic predictions than traditional EBV in pure-bred pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ostersen, Tage; Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Henryon, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Background Genomic selection can be implemented by a multi-step procedure, which requires a response variable and a statistical method. For pure-bred pigs, it was hypothesised that deregressed estimated breeding values (EBV) with the parent average removed as the response variable generate higher...... reliabilities of genomic breeding values than EBV, and that the normal, thick-tailed and mixture-distribution models yield similar reliabilities. Methods Reliabilities of genomic breeding values were estimated with EBV and deregressed EBV as response variables and under the three statistical methods, genomic...... and feed conversion ratio. Results Using deregressed EBV as the response variable yielded 18 to 39% higher reliabilities of the genomic breeding values than using EBV as the response variable. For daily gain, the increase in reliability due to deregression was significant and approximately 35%, whereas...

  2. Influence of model specifications on the reliabilities of genomic prediction in a Swedish-Finnish red breed cattle population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rius-Vilarrasa, E; Strandberg, E; Fikse, W F

    2012-01-01

    Using a combined multi-breed reference population, this study explored the influence of model specification and the effect of including a polygenic effect on the reliability of genomic breeding values (DGV and GEBV). The combined reference population consisted of 2986 Swedish Red Breed (SRB...... effects. The influence of the inclusion of a polygenic effect on the reliability of DGV varied across traits and model specifications. Average correlation between DGV with the Mendelian sampling term, across traits, was highest (R =0.25) for the GBLUP model and decreased with increasing proportion...... of markers with large effects. Reliabilities increased when DGV and parent average information were combined in an index. The GBLUP model with the largest gain across traits in the reliability of the index achieved the highest DGV mean reliability. However, the polygenic models showed to be less biased...

  3. How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Wilker

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. Methods: We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. Results: All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. Conclusions: As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

  4. How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilker, Sarah; Pfeiffer, Anett; Kolassa, Stephan; Koslowski, Daniela; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

    2015-01-01

    Background While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. Methods We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. Results All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. Conclusions As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology. PMID:26589255

  5. Simulation of biomass-steam gasification in fluidized bed reactors: Model setup, comparisons and preliminary predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Linbo; Lim, C Jim; Yue, Guangxi; He, Boshu; Grace, John R

    2016-12-01

    A user-defined solver integrating the solid-gas surface reactions and the multi-phase particle-in-cell (MP-PIC) approach is built based on the OpenFOAM software. The solver is tested against experiments. Then, biomass-steam gasification in a dual fluidized bed (DFB) gasifier is preliminarily predicted. It is found that the predictions agree well with the experimental results. The bed material circulation loop in the DFB can form automatically and the bed height is about 1m. The voidage gradually increases along the height of the bed zone in the bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) of the DFB. The U-bend and cyclone can separate the syngas in the BFB and the flue gas in the circulating fluidized bed. The concentration of the gasification products is relatively higher in the conical transition section, and the dry and nitrogen-free syngas at the BFB outlet is predicted to be composed of 55% H2, 20% CO, 20% CO2 and 5% CH4.

  6. Interior Noise Predictions in the Preliminary Design of the Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosveld, Ferdinand W.; Cabell, Randolph H.; Boyd, David D.

    2013-01-01

    A prediction scheme was established to compute sound pressure levels in the interior of a simplified cabin model of the second generation Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2) during cruise conditions, while being excited by turbulent boundary layer flow over the fuselage, or by tiltrotor blade loading and thickness noise. Finite element models of the cabin structure, interior acoustic space, and acoustically absorbent (poro-elastic) materials in the fuselage were generated and combined into a coupled structural-acoustic model. Fluctuating power spectral densities were computed according to the Efimtsov turbulent boundary layer excitation model. Noise associated with the tiltrotor blades was predicted in the time domain as fluctuating surface pressures and converted to power spectral densities at the fuselage skin finite element nodes. A hybrid finite element (FE) approach was used to compute the low frequency acoustic cabin response over the frequency range 6-141 Hz with a 1 Hz bandwidth, and the Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) approach was used to predict the interior noise for the 125-8000 Hz one-third octave bands.

  7. Microelectronics Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-17

    convey any rights or permission to manufacture, use, or sell any patented invention that may relate to them. This report was cleared for public release...testing for reliability prediction of devices exhibiting multiple failure mechanisms. Also presented was an integrated accelerating and measuring ...13  Table 2  T, V, F and matrix versus  measured  FIT

  8. A CFD Approach for Prediction of Unintended Porosities in Aluminum Syntactic Foam: A Preliminary Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shizhao; Spangenberg, Jon; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2013-01-01

    studies on modeling the infiltration process are mainly based on a porous media/permeability approach. This approach focuses on the global porosity of ASF rather than local unintended porosity, since it does not include the infiltration pattern around the individual spherical particles. This paper reports...... calculates the pressure, velocity and free surface of the aluminum. The results of the numerical model illustrate that this method has great potential of predicting unintended porosities in ASF and thereby optimizing the parameters involved in the infiltration process....

  9. AN ESTIMATION OF FUZZY RELIABILITY OF DISTINCT ELEMENT METHOD IN PREDICTION OF SURFACE SUBSIDENCE DUE TO COAL MINING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张玉卓

    1998-01-01

    The quantitative evaluation of errors involved in a particular numerical modelling is of prime importance for the effectiveness and reliability of the method. Errors in Distinct Element Modelling are generated mainly through three resources as simplification of physical model, determination of parameters and boundary conditions. A measure of errors which represent the degree of numerical solution 'close to true value' is proposed through fuzzy probability in this paper. The main objective of this paper is to estimate the reliability of Distinct Element Method in rock engineering practice by varying the parameters and boundary conditions. The accumulation laws of standard errors induced by improper determination of parameters and boundary conditions are discussed in delails. Furthermore, numerical experiments are given to illustrate the estimation of fuzzy reliability. Example shows that fuzzy reliability falls between 75%-98% when the relative standard errors of input data is under 10 %.

  10. Using image analysis as a tool for assessment of prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancer: How reliable is it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark C Lloyd

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Estrogen receptor (ER, progesterone receptor (PR and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2 are important and well-established prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancers and routinely tested on patient′s tumor samples by immunohistochemical (IHC study. The accuracy of these test results has substantial impact on patient management. A critical factor that contributes to the result is the interpretation (scoring of IHC. This study investigates how computerized image analysis can play a role in a reliable scoring, and identifies potential pitfalls with common methods. Materials and Methods : Whole slide images of 33 invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC (10 ER and 23 HER2 were scored by pathologist under the light microscope and confirmed by another pathologist. The HER2 results were additionally confirmed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH. The scoring criteria were adherent to the guidelines recommended by the American Society of Clinical Oncology/College of American Pathologists. Whole slide stains were then scored by commercially available image analysis algorithms from Definiens (Munich, Germany and Aperio Technologies (Vista, CA, USA. Each algorithm was modified specifically for each marker and tissue. The results were compared with the semi-quantitative manual scoring, which was considered the gold standard in this study. Results : For HER2 positive group, each algorithm scored 23/23 cases within the range established by the pathologist. For ER, both algorithms scored 10/10 cases within range. The performance of each algorithm varies somewhat from the percentage of staining as compared to the pathologist′s reading. Conclusions : Commercially available computerized image analysis can be useful in the evaluation of ER and HER2 IHC results. In order to achieve accurate results either manual pathologist region selection is necessary, or an automated region selection tool must be employed. Specificity can

  11. A Preliminary Evaluation of Season-ahead Flood Prediction Conditioned on Large-scale Climate Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Globally, flood disasters lead all natural hazards in terms of impacts on society, causing billions of dollars of damages each year. Typically, short-term forecasts emphasize immediate emergency actions, longer-range forecasts, on the order of months to seasons, however, can compliment short-term forecasts by focusing on disaster preparedness. In this study, the inter-annual variability of large-scale climate drivers (e.g. ENSO) is investigated to understand the prospects for skillful season-ahead flood prediction globally using PCR-GLOBWB modeled simulations. For example, global gridded correlations between discharge and Nino 3.4 are calculated, with notably strong correlations in the northwestern (-0.4~-0.6) and the southeastern (0.4~0.6) United States, and the Amazon river basin (-0.6~-0.8). Coupled interactions from multiple, simultaneous climate drivers are also evaluated. Skillful prediction has the potential to estimate season-ahead flood probabilities, flood extent, damages, and eventually integrate into early warning systems. This global approach is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop early warning flood systems.

  12. Predictive validity and reliability of the Turkish version of the risk assessment pressure sore scale in intensive care patients: results of a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Günes, Ülkü Yapucu; Efteli, Elçin

    2015-04-01

    Multiple pressure ulcer (PU) risk assessment instruments have been developed and tested, but there is no general consensus on which instrument to use for specific patient populations and care settings. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability and predictive validity of the Turkish version of the Risk Assessment Pressure Sore (RAPS) instrument, which includes 12 variables--5 from the modified Norton Scale, 3 from the Braden Scale, and 3 from other research results--for use in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The English version of the RAPS instrument was translated into Turkish and tested for internal consistency and predictive validity (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value) using a convenience sample of 122 patients consecutively admitted to an ICU unit in Turkey. The patients were assessed within 24 hours of admission, and after that, once a week until the development of a PU or discharge from the unit. The incidence of PUs in this population was 23%. The majority of ulcers that developed were Stage I. Internal consistency of the RAPS tool was adequate (Cronbach's α = 0.81). The best balance between sensitivity and specificity for ICU patients was reached at a cut-off point of ≤ 27 (ie, sensitivity = 74.2%, specificity = 31.8%, positive predictive value = 38.7%, and negative predictive value 91.3%). This is lower than the cut-off point reported in other studies of the RAPS scale. In this population of ICU patients, the RAPS scale was found to have acceptable reliability and poor validity. Additional studies to evaluate the predictive validity and reliability of the RAPS scale in other patient populations and care settings are needed.

  13. The Parameterization of PBL height with Helicity and preliminary Application in Tropical Cyclone Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Leiming

    2015-04-01

    Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) plays an important role in transferring the energy and moisture from ocean to tropical cyclone (TC). Thus, the accuracy of PBL parameterization determines the performance of numerical model on TC prediction to a large extent. Among various components of PBL parameterization, the definition on the height of PBL is the first should be concerned, which determines the vertical scale of PBL and the associated processes of turbulence in different scales. However, up to now, there is lacked consensus on how to define the height of PBL in the TC research community. The PBL heights represented by current numerical models usually exhibits significant difference with TC observation (e.g., Zhang et al., 2011; Storm et al., 2008), leading to the rapid growth of error in TC prediction. In an effort to narrow the gap between PBL parameterization and reality, this study presents a new parameterization scheme for the definition of PBL height. Instead of using traditional definition for PBL height with Richardson number, which has been verified not appropriate for the strongly sheared structure of TC PBL in recent observation studies, the new scheme employs a dynamical definition based on the conception of helicity. In this sense the spiral structures associated with inflow layer and rolls are expected to be represented in PBL parameterization. By defining the PBL height at each grid point, the new scheme also avoids to assume the symmetric inflow layer that is usually implemented in observational studies. The new scheme is applied to the Yonsei University (YSU) scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model of US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and verified with numerical experiments on TC Morakot (2009), which brought torrential rainfall and disaster to Taiwan and China mainland during landfall. The Morakot case is selected in this study to examine the performance of the new scheme in representing various structures of PBL

  14. Preliminary probabilistic prediction of ice/snow accretion on stay cables based on meteorological variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roldsgaard, Joan Hee; Kiremidjian, A.; Georgakis, Christos T.;

    The scope of the present paper is to present a framework for assessment of the probability of occurrence of ice/snow accretion on bridge cables. The framework utilizes Bayesian Probabilistic Networks and the methodology is illustrated with an example of the cable-stayed Øresund Bridge. The case...... study focuses on the ice/snow accretion due to the in-cloud icing or precipitation icing mechanisms and includes probabilistic assessments of the meteorological variables influencing the ice/snow accretion on the stay cables. Different probability distribution functions are utilized...... for the representation of the meteorological variables and evaluated both by goodness-of-fit test and qualitatively. Conditional probability curves are developed to predict the amount of ice accretion given a set of meteorological conditions using the Gaussian Kernel Smoothing method. The fitted probability distribution...

  15. A preliminary investigation into the prevalence and prediction of problematic cell phone use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetaniuk, Peter

    2014-03-01

    Likening mobile phone use dependency to the classification of excessive behaviors may be necessarily equivalent in seriousness to previously established addictions such as problematic computing or excessive gambling. The aim of the study explores into the behavior of excessive use of mobile phones as a pathological behavior. Two studies investigated criteria for problematic mobile phone usage by examining student (Study 1, N = 301) and nonstudent (Study 2, N = 362) responses to a set of adapted mobile phone addiction inventories. Study 1 investigated cell phone addiction inventories as constructs designed to measure problematic cell phone use. Additionally, Study 2 sought to predict age, depression, extraversion, emotional stability, impulse control, and self-esteem as independent variables that augment respondents' perceptions of problematic use. The results from Study 1 and Study 2 indicate that 10 to 25% of the participants tested exhibited problematic cell phone usage. Additionally, age, depression, extraversion, and low impulse control are the most suitable predictors for problematic use. The results of the two studies indicate that problematic mobile phone use does occur and ought to be taken seriously by the psychological community. Presently, there is limited data providing conclusive evidence for a comprehensible categorization of cell phone addiction, as well as a unified explanatory model specific to problematic mobile phone use. Studies such as this one may contribute substantial findings, adding scientific significance, and offering a valuable submission for the ongoing progress of creating intervention frameworks relative to "virtual addictions".

  16. Using computational simulation to aid in the prediction of socket fit: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Winson C C; Zhang, Ming

    2007-10-01

    This study illustrates the use of computational analysis to predict prosthetic socket fit. A simple indentation test is performed by applying force to the residual limb of a trans-tibial amputee through an indenter until the subject perceives the onset of pain. Computational finite element (FE) analysis is then applied to evaluate the magnitude of pressure underlying the indenter that initiates pain (pain threshold pressure), and the pressure at the prosthetic socket-residual limb interface. The assessment of socket fit is examined by studying whether or not the socket-limb interface pressure exceeds the pain threshold pressure of the limb. Based on the computer-aided assessment, a new prosthetic socket is then fabricated and fitted to the amputee subject. Successful socket fit is achieved at the end of this process. The approach of using computational analysis to aid in assessing socket fit allows a more efficient evaluation and re-design of the socket even before the actual fabrication and fitting of the prosthetic socket. However, more thorough investigations are required before this approach can be widely used. A subsequent part of this paper discusses the limitations and suggests future research directions in this area.

  17. Can we predict the health of teenagers 2 years in advance?: A preliminary study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Zdanowicz

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: A two year follow-up study of a cohort of adolescents on 9 health parameters. METHOD: 325 adolescents were enrolled in April 1999. In addition to answering a general social-demographic questionnaire, they answered Wallston's Multidimensional Locus of Control scale (MHLC and Olson's questionnaire on family dynamics (FACES III. 10 health indicators were recorded : two analogical visual assessments (VAS (general coping and feelings of well-being, their concern for their health on a five level Likert scale, Zung's Subjective Depression Scale, and having had to repeat a school year as an indirect indicator of self esteem. Two years later, the sample (n = 86 were re-evaluated through the same questionnaires, and answered a supplementary questionnaire addressing (1 additional medication taken since their initial evaluation, (2 the number of medical consultations they have been through since the baseline, and/or (3 hospitalisations they underwent. They also answered a VAS about their level of concern over their body. RESULTS: Numerous variables belonging to Wallston's MHLC scale as well as to Olson's FACES III questionnaire were found to correlate with health indicators two years later. It proved to also be the case for both several « subjective » values such as general coping and feelings of well-being, and being concerned with one's health, and with more « objective » parameters such as subjects' scores on the "Subjective Depression Feelings" form, or their intake of additional medications. CONCLUSION: It appears that it is may possible to predict two years in advance at-risk adolescents for whom preventive medicine is particularly necessary.

  18. Can we predict the health of teenagers 2 years in advance?: A preliminary study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Zdanowicz

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: A two year follow-up study of a cohort of adolescents on 9 health parameters. METHOD: 325 adolescents were enrolled in April 1999. In addition to answering a general social-demographic questionnaire, they answered Wallston's Multidimensional Locus of Control scale (MHLC and Olson's questionnaire on family dynamics (FACES III. 10 health indicators were recorded : two analogical visual assessments (VAS (general coping and feelings of well-being, their concern for their health on a five level Likert scale, Zung's Subjective Depression Scale, and having had to repeat a school year as an indirect indicator of self esteem. Two years later, the sample (n = 86 were re-evaluated through the same questionnaires, and answered a supplementary questionnaire addressing (1 additional medication taken since their initial evaluation, (2 the number of medical consultations they have been through since the baseline, and/or (3 hospitalisations they underwent. They also answered a VAS about their level of concern over their body. RESULTS: Numerous variables belonging to Wallston's MHLC scale as well as to Olson's FACES III questionnaire were found to correlate with health indicators two years later. It proved to also be the case for both several « subjective » values such as general coping and feelings of well-being, and being concerned with one's health, and with more « objective » parameters such as subjects' scores on the "Subjective Depression Feelings" form, or their intake of additional medications. CONCLUSION: It appears that it is may possible to predict two years in advance at-risk adolescents for whom preventive medicine is particularly necessary.

  19. Predictive models applied to groundwater level forecasting: a preliminary experience on the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brozzo, Gianpiero; Doveri, Marco; Lelli, Matteo; Scozzari, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    Computer-based decision support systems are getting a growing interest for water managing authorities and water distribution companies. This work discusses a preliminary experience in the application of computational intelligence in a hydrological modeling framework, regarding the study area of the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy). Two sites in the studied area, corresponding to two distinct groups of wells (Battifollo and Fornola) are managed by the local drinkable water distribution company (ACAM Acque), which serves the area of La Spezia, on the Ligurian coast. Battifollo has 9 wells with a total extraction rate of about 240 liters per second, while Fornola has 44 wells with an extraction rate of about 900 liters per second. Objective of this work is to make use of time series coming from long-term monitoring activities in order to assess the trend of the groundwater level with respect to a set of environmental and exploitation parameters; this is accomplished by the experimentation of a suitable model, eligible to be used as a predictor. This activity moves on from the modeling of the system behavior, based on a set of Input/Output data, in order to characterize it without necessarily a prior knowledge of any deterministic mechanism (system identification). In this context, data series collected by continuous hydrological monitoring instrumentation installed in the studied sites, together with meteorological and water extraction data, have been analyzed in order to assess the applicability and performance of a predictive model of the groundwater level. A mixed approach (both data driven and process-based) has been experimented on the whole dataset relating to the last ten years of continuous monitoring activity. The system identification approach presented here is based on the integration of an adaptive technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and a blind deterministic identification approach. According to this concept, the behavior of

  20. Predicting Treatment Outcomes from Prefrontal Cortex Activation for Self-Harming Patients with Borderline Personality Disorder: A Preliminary Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Charles Ruocco

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Self-harm is a potentially lethal symptom of borderline personality disorder (BPD that often improves with dialectical behavior therapy (DBT. While DBT is effective for reducing self-harm in many patients with BPD, a small but significant number of patients either does not improve in treatment or ends treatment prematurely. Accordingly, it is crucial to identify factors that may prospectively predict which patients are most likely to benefit from and remain in treatment. In the present preliminary study, twenty-nine actively self-harming patients with BPD completed brain-imaging procedures probing activation of the prefrontal cortex during impulse control prior to beginning DBT and after seven months of treatment. Patients that reduced their frequency of self-harm the most over treatment displayed lower levels of neural activation in the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex prior to beginning treatment, and they showed the greatest increases in activity within this region after seven months of treatment. Prior to starting DBT, treatment non-completers demonstrated greater activation than treatment-completers in the medial prefrontal cortex and right inferior frontal gyrus. Reductions in self-harm over the treatment period were associated with increases in activity in right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex even after accounting for improvements in depression, mania, and BPD symptom severity. These findings suggest that pre-treatment patterns of activation in the prefrontal cortex underlying impulse control may be prospectively associated with improvements in self-harm and treatment attrition for patients with BPD treated with DBT.

  1. The semiology of psychogenic nonepileptic seizures revisited: Can video alone predict the diagnosis? Preliminary data from a prospective feasibility study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erba, Giuseppe; Giussani, Giorgia; Juersivich, Adam; Magaudda, Adriana; Chiesa, Valentina; Laganà, Angela; Di Rosa, Gabriella; Bianchi, Elisa; Langfitt, John; Beghi, Ettore

    2016-05-01

    To investigate if, when, and to what extent visual information contained in a video-recorded event allows experienced epileptologists to predict the diagnosis of psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNES) without the aid of electroencephalography (EEG). Five neurologists actively practicing in epilepsy centers in Italy and the United States were asked to review 23 videos capturing representative events of 21 unselected consecutive patients admitted for long-term video-EEG monitoring (VEM). Four raters were blind to EEG and clinical information; one rater was not. They were requested to (1) rate the videos for quality and content; (2) choose among four diagnoses: (a) epileptic seizures (ES); (b) PNES; (c) Other nonepileptic seizures (NES; (syncope, movement disorder, migraine, etc.); (d) "Cannot Say"; and (3) explain in their own words the main reasons leading to the diagnosis of choice. All raters predicted the diagnosis correctly in 7 of 23 videos (all ES or PNES) (30.4%), whereas all raters failed in 5 of 23 cases (three Other NES, one PNES, one Cannot Say) (21.7%). The conditions that facilitate, and those that interfere with, a confident diagnosis were predictable. Degree of accuracy among raters was not uniform and was consistently better in three raters. Two among the four blind raters were as accurate as the rater who was not blinded. Interrater agreement was "moderate" (k = 0.52) for the overall group; "moderate" for ES (k = 0.53); "substantial" for PNES (k = 0.63); "fair" for Other NES (k = 0.21)-similar to the results obtained in a previous study evaluating the reliability of combined video-EEG. In about one third of cases, a confident diagnosis of PNES/ES can be established on clinical grounds based on video data alone. Our results benefit all affected patients, particularly those with no access to video-EEG monitoring units. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International League Against Epilepsy.

  2. Assuring reliability program effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, L. W.

    1973-01-01

    An attempt is made to provide simple identification and description of techniques that have proved to be most useful either in developing a new product or in improving reliability of an established product. The first reliability task is obtaining and organizing parts failure rate data. Other tasks are parts screening, tabulation of general failure rates, preventive maintenance, prediction of new product reliability, and statistical demonstration of achieved reliability. Five principal tasks for improving reliability involve the physics of failure research, derating of internal stresses, control of external stresses, functional redundancy, and failure effects control. A final task is the training and motivation of reliability specialist engineers.

  3. Reliability of the modified Gross Motor Function Measure-88 (GMFM-88) for children with both Spastic Cerebral Palsy and Cerebral Visual Impairment : A preliminary study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salavati, M.; Krijnen, W. P.; Rameckers, E. A. A.; Looijestijn, P. L.; Maathuis, C. G. B.; van der Schans, C. P.; Steenbergen, B.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The aims of this study were to adapt the Gross Motor Function Measure-88 (GMFM-88) for children with Cerebral Palsy (CP) and Cerebral Visual Impairment (CVI) and to determine the test-retest and interobserver reliability of the adapted version. Method: Sixteen paediatric physical therapists

  4. A Preliminary Study on the Reliability of the Malay Version of PedsQL™ Family Impact Module among Caregivers of Children with Disabilities in Kelantan, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Azriani Ab; Mohamad, Norsarwany; Imran, Musa Kamarul; Ibrahim, Wan Pauzi Wan; Othman, Azizah; Aziz, Aniza Abd; Harith, Sakinah; Ibrahim, Mohd Ismail; Ariffin, Nor Hashimah; Van Rostenberghe, Hans

    2011-10-01

    No previous study has assessed the impact of childhood disability on parents and family in the context of Malaysia, and no instrument to measure this impact has previously been available. The objective of this cross-sectional study was to determine the reliability of a Malay version of the PedsQL™ Family Impact Module that measures the impact of children with disabilities (CWD) on their parents and family in a Malaysian context. The study was conducted in 2009. The questionnaire was translated forward and backward before it was administered to 44 caregivers of CWD to determine the internal consistency reliability. The test for Cronbach's alpha was performed. The internal consistency reliability was good. The Cronbach's alpha for all domains was above 0.7, ranging from 0.73 to 0.895. The Malay version of the PedsQL™ Family Impact Module showed evidence of good internal consistency reliability. However, future studies with a larger sample size are necessary before the module can be recommended as a tool to measure the impact of disability on Malay-speaking Malaysian families.

  5. Reliable and accurate point-based prediction of cumulative infiltration using soil readily available characteristics: A comparison between GMDH, ANN, and MLR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmati, Mehdi

    2017-08-01

    Developing accurate and reliable pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) to predict soil non-readily available characteristics is one of the most concerned topic in soil science and selecting more appropriate predictors is a crucial factor in PTFs' development. Group method of data handling (GMDH), which finds an approximate relationship between a set of input and output variables, not only provide an explicit procedure to select the most essential PTF input variables, but also results in more accurate and reliable estimates than other mostly applied methodologies. Therefore, the current research was aimed to apply GMDH in comparison with multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to develop several PTFs to predict soil cumulative infiltration point-basely at specific time intervals (0.5-45 min) using soil readily available characteristics (RACs). In this regard, soil infiltration curves as well as several soil RACs including soil primary particles (clay (CC), silt (Si), and sand (Sa)), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), bulk (Db) and particle (Dp) densities, organic carbon (OC), wet-aggregate stability (WAS), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil antecedent (θi) and field saturated (θfs) water contents were measured at 134 different points in Lighvan watershed, northwest of Iran. Then, applying GMDH, MLR, and ANN methodologies, several PTFs have been developed to predict cumulative infiltrations using two sets of selected soil RACs including and excluding Ks. According to the test data, results showed that developed PTFs by GMDH and MLR procedures using all soil RACs including Ks resulted in more accurate (with E values of 0.673-0.963) and reliable (with CV values lower than 11 percent) predictions of cumulative infiltrations at different specific time steps. In contrast, ANN procedure had lower accuracy (with E values of 0.356-0.890) and reliability (with CV values up to 50 percent) compared to GMDH and MLR. The results also revealed

  6. A biogeochemical model of Lake Pusiano (North Italy and its use in the predictability of phytoplankton blooms: first preliminary results

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    Alessandro OGGIONI

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available This study reports the first preliminary results of the DYRESM-CAEDYM model application to a mid size sub-alpine lake (Lake Pusiano North Italy. The in-lake modelling is a part of a more general project called Pusiano Integrated Lake/Catchment project (PILE whose final goal is to understand the hydrological and trophic relationship between lake and catchment, supporting the restoration plan of the lake through field data analysis and numerical models. DYRESM is a 1D-3D hydrodynamics model for predicting the vertical profile of temperature, salinity and density. CAEDYM is multi-component ecological model, used here as a phytoplankton-zooplankton processes based model, which includes algorithms to simulate the nutrient cycles within the water column as well as the air-water gas exchanges and the water-sediments fluxes. The first results of the hydrodynamics simulations underline the capability of the model to accurately simulate the surface temperature seasonal trend and the thermal gradient whereas, during summer stratification, the model underestimates the bottom temperature of around 2 °C. The ecological model describes the epilimnetic reactive phosphorus (PO4 depletion (due to the phytoplankton uptake and the increase in PO4 concentrations in the deepest layers of the lake (due to the mineralization processes and the sediments release. In terms of phytoplankton dynamics the model accounts for the Planktothrix rubescens dominance during the whole season, whereas it seems to underestimate the peak in primary production related to both the simulated algal groups (P. rubescens and the rest of the other species aggregated in a single class. The future aims of the project are to complete the model parameterization and to connect the in-lake and the catchment modelling in order to gain an integrated view of the lake-catchment ecosystem as well as to develop a three dimensional model of the lake.

  7. Predicting of parameters of reliability two-cascade thermoelectrical cooling device in a mode Q0max

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    Khramova L. F.

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The parities for an estimation of parameters of reliability two-cascade ТED of a various design depending on their basic parameters in a mode Q0max are received. The results of accounts for differences of temperature ΔТ=60, 70, 80 K in view of thermal loading and temperature dependence of parameters, and also in a mode of the thermal pump (at ΔТ=0 are given. The estimation maximal coldproductivity two-cascade TED of a various design for various conditions of operation is carried out.

  8. Reliable Prediction of Insulin Resistance by a School-Based Fitness Test in Middle-School Children

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    Allen DavidB

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. (1 Determine the predictive value of a school-based test of cardiovascular fitness (CVF for insulin resistance (IR; (2 compare a "school-based" prediction of IR to a "laboratory-based" prediction, using various measures of fitness and body composition. Methods. Middle school children ( performed the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER, a school-based CVF test, and underwent evaluation of maximal oxygen consumption treadmill testing ( max, body composition (percent body fat and BMI z score, and IR (derived homeostasis model assessment index []. Results. PACER showed a strong correlation with max/kg ( = 0.83, and with ( = , . Multivariate regression analysis revealed that a school-based model (using PACER and BMI z score predicted IR similar to a laboratory-based model (using max/kg of lean body mass and percent body fat. Conclusions. The PACER is a valid school-based test of CVF, is predictive of IR, and has a similar relationship to IR when compared to complex laboratory-based testing. Simple school-based measures of childhood fitness (PACER and fatness (BMI z score could be used to identify childhood risk for IR and evaluate interventions.

  9. Reliable Prediction of Insulin Resistance by a School-Based Fitness Test in Middle-School Children

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    Todd Varness

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. (1 Determine the predictive value of a school-based test of cardiovascular fitness (CVF for insulin resistance (IR; (2 compare a “school-based” prediction of IR to a “laboratory-based” prediction, using various measures of fitness and body composition. Methods. Middle school children (n=82 performed the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER, a school-based CVF test, and underwent evaluation of maximal oxygen consumption treadmill testing (VO2 max, body composition (percent body fat and BMI z score, and IR (derived homeostasis model assessment index [HOMAIR]. Results. PACER showed a strong correlation with VO2 max/kg (rs = 0.83, P<.001 and with HOMAIR (rs = −0.60, P<.001. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that a school-based model (using PACER and BMI z score predicted IR similar to a laboratory-based model (using VO2 max/kg of lean body mass and percent body fat. Conclusions. The PACER is a valid school-based test of CVF, is predictive of IR, and has a similar relationship to IR when compared to complex laboratory-based testing. Simple school-based measures of childhood fitness (PACER and fatness (BMI z score could be used to identify childhood risk for IR and evaluate interventions.

  10. Prediction on the Reliability of A Low Specific Centrifugal Pump%低比转速化工离心泵的可靠性预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏雨鑫

    2014-01-01

    在化工离心泵设计过程中对泵的性能和可靠度进行预测有利于保证泵在运行过程中的可靠性。为给离心泵的可靠性设计提供一种分析手段,以一台低比转速离心泵为对象,给出该泵的设计参数和结构、对水力性能进行数值预测和性能测试。将离心泵看作一个由各部件组成的串联系统,在相关经验或试验数据基础上结合模型泵的特点,分析单元可靠度进而得到零件的失效率,最终通过系统的可靠度计算得出离心泵的可靠度。该设计和分析方法相对于传统的机械设计方法更有利与提高泵的可靠性。%The performance and reliability prediction in the design of the pump are helpful to ensure the reliability of the chemi-cal process pump during operation.to provide an analysis method for the reliability design for centrifugal pump,with a specific speed centrifugal pump as the research object,the design parameters and structure were given,the numerical and experimental results of the pump performance were presented.The centrifugal pump was modeled as a series system with various components. On the basis of the relevant experience,experimental data and the characteristic model of the centrifugal pump,the reliability and failure rate of the components was obtained,then the reliability of centrifugal pump was calculated through the calculation of reli-ability of system.The design and analysis method compared with the traditional mechanical design method has more advantageous and improves the reliability of the chemical process pump.

  11. Durability and Reliability of Electric Vehicle Batteries under Electric Utility Grid Operations. Part 1: Cell-to-Cell Variations and Preliminary Testing

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    Arnaud Devie

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle-to-grid (V2G and grid-to-vehicle (G2V strategies are considered to help stabilize the electric grid but their true impact on battery degradation is still unknown. The intention of this study is to test the impact of such strategies on the degradation of commercial Li-ion batteries. This first part looks into the preliminary testing performed prior to the start of degradation studies to ensure that the selected cells are compatible. Both the thermodynamic and kinetic cell-to-cell variation within the selected batch and the diagnostic-ability of the cells were investigated. The cells were found to have low cell-to-cell variations and are thus consistent. Moreover, the emulation of the full cell from the half-cell data prepared from harvested electrodes was successful and the degradation forecast showed that the main degradation modes can be differentiated.

  12. The Individualized Classroom Assessment Scoring System (inCLASS): Preliminary Reliability and Validity of a System for Observing Preschoolers' Competence in Classroom Interactions.

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    Downer, Jason T; Booren, Leslie M; Lima, Olivia K; Luckner, Amy E; Pianta, Robert C

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces the Individualized Classroom Assessment Scoring System (inCLASS), an observation tool that targets children's interactions in preschool classrooms with teachers, peers, and tasks. In particular, initial evidence is reported of the extent to which the inCLASS meets the following psychometric criteria: inter-rater reliability, normal distributions and adequate range, construct validity, and criterion-related validity. These initial findings suggest that the inCLASS has the potential to provide an authentic, contextualized assessment of young children's classroom behaviors. Future directions for research with the inCLASS are discussed.

  13. Improving the reliability of female fertility breeding values using type and milk yield traits that predict energy status in Australian Holstein cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Recio, O; Haile-Mariam, M; Pryce, J E

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this study were (1) to propose changing the selection criteria trait for evaluating fertility in Australia from calving interval to conception rate at d 42 after the beginning of the mating season and (2) to use type traits as early fertility predictors, to increase the reliability of estimated breeding values for fertility. The breeding goal in Australia is conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season. Currently, the Australian model to predict fertility breeding values (expressed as a linear transformation of calving interval) is a multitrait model that includes calving interval (CVI), lactation length (LL), calving to first service (CFS), first nonreturn rate (FNRR), and conception rate. However, CVI has a lower genetic correlation with the breeding goal (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) than conception rate. Milk yield, type, and fertility data from 164,318 cow sired by 4,766 bulls were used. Principal component analysis and genetic correlation estimates between type and fertility traits were used to select type traits that could subsequently be used in a multitrait analysis. Angularity, foot angle, and pin set were chosen as type traits to include in an index with the traits that are included in the multitrait fertility model: CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and conception rate at d 42 (CR42). An index with these 8 traits is expected to achieve an average bull first proof reliability of 0.60 on the breeding objective (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) compared with reliabilities of 0.39 and 0.45 for CR42 only or the current 5-trait Australian model. Subsequently, we used the first eigenvector of a principal component analysis with udder texture, bone quality, angularity, and body condition score to calculate an energy status indicator trait. The inclusion of the energy status indicator trait composite in a multitrait index with CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and CR42 achieved a 12-point increase in

  14. Support Vector Machine Analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of Interoception Does Not Reliably Predict Individual Outcomes of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Panic Disorder with Agoraphobia

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    Benedikt Sundermann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe approach to apply multivariate pattern analyses based on neuro imaging data for outcome prediction holds out the prospect to improve therapeutic decisions in mental disorders. Patients suffering from panic disorder with agoraphobia (PD/AG often exhibit an increased perception of bodily sensations. The purpose of this investigation was to assess whether multivariate classification applied to a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI interoception paradigm can predict individual responses to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT in PD/AG.MethodsThis analysis is based on pretreatment fMRI data during an interoceptive challenge from a multicenter trial of the German PANIC-NET. Patients with DSM-IV PD/AG were dichotomized as responders (n = 30 or non-responders (n = 29 based on the primary outcome (Hamilton Anxiety Scale Reduction ≥50% after 6 weeks of CBT (2 h/week. fMRI parametric maps were used as features for response classification with linear support vector machines (SVM with or without automated feature selection. Predictive accuracies were assessed using cross validation and permutation testing. The influence of methodological parameters and the predictive ability for specific interoception-related symptom reduction were further evaluated.ResultsSVM did not reach sufficient overall predictive accuracies (38.0–54.2% for anxiety reduction in the primary outcome. In the exploratory analyses, better accuracies (66.7% were achieved for predicting interoception-specific symptom relief as an alternative outcome domain. Subtle information regarding this alternative response criterion but not the primary outcome was revealed by post hoc univariate comparisons.ConclusionIn contrast to reports on other neurofunctional probes, SVM based on an interoception paradigm was not able to reliably predict individual response to CBT. Results speak against the clinical applicability of this technique.

  15. Support Vector Machine Analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of Interoception Does Not Reliably Predict Individual Outcomes of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Panic Disorder with Agoraphobia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundermann, Benedikt; Bode, Jens; Lueken, Ulrike; Westphal, Dorte; Gerlach, Alexander L; Straube, Benjamin; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Ströhle, Andreas; Wittmann, André; Konrad, Carsten; Kircher, Tilo; Arolt, Volker; Pfleiderer, Bettina

    2017-01-01

    The approach to apply multivariate pattern analyses based on neuro imaging data for outcome prediction holds out the prospect to improve therapeutic decisions in mental disorders. Patients suffering from panic disorder with agoraphobia (PD/AG) often exhibit an increased perception of bodily sensations. The purpose of this investigation was to assess whether multivariate classification applied to a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) interoception paradigm can predict individual responses to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) in PD/AG. This analysis is based on pretreatment fMRI data during an interoceptive challenge from a multicenter trial of the German PANIC-NET. Patients with DSM-IV PD/AG were dichotomized as responders (n = 30) or non-responders (n = 29) based on the primary outcome (Hamilton Anxiety Scale Reduction ≥50%) after 6 weeks of CBT (2 h/week). fMRI parametric maps were used as features for response classification with linear support vector machines (SVM) with or without automated feature selection. Predictive accuracies were assessed using cross validation and permutation testing. The influence of methodological parameters and the predictive ability for specific interoception-related symptom reduction were further evaluated. SVM did not reach sufficient overall predictive accuracies (38.0-54.2%) for anxiety reduction in the primary outcome. In the exploratory analyses, better accuracies (66.7%) were achieved for predicting interoception-specific symptom relief as an alternative outcome domain. Subtle information regarding this alternative response criterion but not the primary outcome was revealed by post hoc univariate comparisons. In contrast to reports on other neurofunctional probes, SVM based on an interoception paradigm was not able to reliably predict individual response to CBT. Results speak against the clinical applicability of this technique.

  16. Using DFT methodology for more reliable predictive models: Design of inhibitors of Golgi α-Mannosidase II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobovská, Adela; Tvaroška, Igor; Kóňa, Juraj

    2016-05-01

    Human Golgi α-mannosidase II (GMII), a zinc ion co-factor dependent glycoside hydrolase (E.C.3.2.1.114), is a pharmaceutical target for the design of inhibitors with anti-cancer activity. The discovery of an effective inhibitor is complicated by the fact that all known potent inhibitors of GMII are involved in unwanted co-inhibition with lysosomal α-mannosidase (LMan, E.C.3.2.1.24), a relative to GMII. Routine empirical QSAR models for both GMII and LMan did not work with a required accuracy. Therefore, we have developed a fast computational protocol to build predictive models combining interaction energy descriptors from an empirical docking scoring function (Glide-Schrödinger), Linear Interaction Energy (LIE) method, and quantum mechanical density functional theory (QM-DFT) calculations. The QSAR models were built and validated with a library of structurally diverse GMII and LMan inhibitors and non-active compounds. A critical role of QM-DFT descriptors for the more accurate prediction abilities of the models is demonstrated. The predictive ability of the models was significantly improved when going from the empirical docking scoring function to mixed empirical-QM-DFT QSAR models (Q(2)=0.78-0.86 when cross-validation procedures were carried out; and R(2)=0.81-0.83 for a testing set). The average error for the predicted ΔGbind decreased to 0.8-1.1kcalmol(-1). Also, 76-80% of non-active compounds were successfully filtered out from GMII and LMan inhibitors. The QSAR models with the fragmented QM-DFT descriptors may find a useful application in structure-based drug design where pure empirical and force field methods reached their limits and where quantum mechanics effects are critical for ligand-receptor interactions. The optimized models will apply in lead optimization processes for GMII drug developments.

  17. Preliminary data concerning the reliability and psychometric properties of the Greek translation of the 20-item Subjective Well-Being Under Neuroleptic Treatment Scale (SWN-20

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    Arapidis Konstantinos

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 20-item Subjective Well-Being Under Neuroleptic Treatment Scale (SWN-20 is a self-report scale developed in order to assess the well-being of patients receiving antipsychotic medication independent of the improvement in their psychotic symptoms. The current study reports on the reliability and the psychometric properties of the Greek translation of the SWN-20. Methods A total of 100 inpatients or outpatients with schizophrenia (79 males and 21 females, aged 42.6 ± 11.35 years old from 3 different facilities were assessed with the Positive and Negative Symptoms Scale (PANSS, the Calgary Depression Scale and the Simpson-Angus Scale, and completed the SWN-20. The statistical analysis included the calculation of Pearson product moment correlation coefficient, the Cronbach α and factor analysis with Varimax normalised rotation. Results The SWN-20 had an α value equal to 0.79 and all the items were equal. The factor analysis revealed the presence of seven factors explaining 66% of total variance. The correlation matrix revealed a moderate relationship of the SWN-20 and its factors with the PANSS-Negative (PANSS-N, PANSS-General Psychopathology (PANSS-G, the Simpson-Angus and the Calgary scales, and no relationship to age, education and income class. Discussion The Greek translation of the SWN-20 is reliable, with psychometric properties close to the original scale.

  18. Construction and reliability of the Japanese version of the Adolescent Egocentrism-Sociocentrism (AES) scale and its preliminary application in the Japanese university students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Mayumi; Tomotake, Masahito; Ohmori, Tetsuro

    2008-08-01

    In recent years, the problem of interpersonal relationships has been reported to be associated with various adolescent psychiatric problems. Egocentrism is one factor related to the problem of interpersonal relationships. The Adolescent Egocentrism-Sociocentrism (AES) scale is used to assess egocentrism in Western countries, but no such scale has been developed in Japan. The purpose of our current study was to develop the Japanese version of the AES scale and investigate the relationship between the egocentrism assessed by the AES scale and the self-consciousness assessed by the Japanese version of the self-consciousness scale. The original version of the AES scale was first translated into Japanese using the forward-backward method and examined for factorial reliability and validity. The results demonstrated that the Japanese version of the AES scale shows adequate factorial reliability and validity, but different from the original version the "egocentrism personal fable" subscale which measures the feeling that oneself is special and unique was not extracted in the Japanese version. We found a moderate correlation between the non-social focuses of the AES scale and the public self-consciousness subscale of the self-consciousness scale. This correlation suggests that a strong attention of others' view on oneself results in the avoidance of others. The Japanese version of the AES scale can examine egocentrism adequately together with sociocentrism and non-social focuses. As this scale is self-reporting and easy to complete, it may have practical utility in a clinical setting.

  19. Reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Dissociative Disorders (SCID-D): a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundakçi, Turgut; Sar, Vedat; Kiziltan, Emre; Yargiç, Ilhan L; Tutkun, Hamdi

    2014-01-01

    A total of 34 consecutive patients with dissociative identity disorder or dissociative disorder not otherwise specified were evaluated using the Turkish version of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Dissociative Disorders (SCID-D). They were compared with a matched control group composed of 34 patients who had a nondissociative psychiatric disorder. Interrater reliability was evaluated by 3 clinicians who assessed videotaped interviews conducted with 5 dissociative and 5 nondissociative patients. All subjects who were previously diagnosed by clinicians as having a dissociative disorder were identified as positive, and all subjects who were previously diagnosed as not having a dissociative disorder were identified as negative. The scores of the main symptom clusters and the total score of the SCID-D differentiated dissociative patients from the nondissociative group. There were strong correlations between the SCID-D and the Dissociative Experiences Scale total and subscale scores. These results are promising for the validity and reliability of the Turkish version of the SCID-D. However, as the present study was conducted on a predominantly female sample with very severe dissociation, these findings should not be generalized to male patients, to dissociative disorders other than dissociative identity disorder, or to broader clinical or nonclinical populations.

  20. Increased reliability of mean travel time predictions of river-groundwater exchange fluxes using optimal design techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wöhling, Thomas; Gosses, Moritz; Osenbrück, Karsten

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we follow up on previous work at the Steinlach test site (Osenbrück et al, 2013) near Tübingen, Germany, to investigate hyporheic exchange fluxes in a shallow riparian aquifer. A steady-state MODFLOW model has been developed for the site and calibrated using an existing network of 14 observation wells. Due to a relatively steep hydraulic gradient (0.012 m/m) between the upstream and downstream flow stages of the river bend, water infiltrates from the river into the shallow aquifer along the upstream section of the river and is forced to re-enter the river at the downstream end. The passage through the aquifer potentially allows for mitigation and transformation of river water-bound pollutants. One important factor to estimate attenuation potentials are travel (and exposure) times through (parts of) the aquifer. In our approach we used forward particle tracking (MODPATH) and a flux-weighting scheme to estimate travel time distributions for the river-groundwater exchange fluxes in the study domain. Travel times vary significantly within the domain, however, estimates of mean travel times derived from deconvolution of EC and δ18O-H2O data at selected wells exhibit a consistent pattern with modelled travel times. The flux-weighted mean travel time of all river water that passed the riparian aquifer was calculated to 26.1 days. The uncertainty of the flux-weighted mean travel time was calculated using the prediction error variance approach by Moore and Doherty (2005) which resulted in a post-calibration uncertainty of ±93.5 d (1σ), i.e. about 350% of the actual prediction. We further analysed the worth of potential new observations to reduce the large uncertainty of this model prediction. In our optimization framework, we extend the method by Moore and Doherty (2005) to simultaneously optimize multiple observations using a modified Genetic Algorithm (GA) that can also sample from past states for higher efficiency. The observations considered are

  1. Analysis of reliability, accuracy, sensitivity and predictive value of a subjective method to classify facial pattern in adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Queiroz, Gilberto Vilanova; Rino, José; de Paiva, João Batista; Capelozza, Leopoldino

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Introduction: Craniofacial pattern diagnosis is vital in Orthodontics, as it influences decision-making regarding treatment options and prognosis. Capelozza Filho proposed a subjective method for facial classification comprising five patterns: I, II, III, Long Face and Short Face. Objective: To investigate the accuracy of a subjective classification method of facial patterns applied to adults. Methods: A sample consisting of 52 adults was used for this study. Frontal and lateral view photographs were taken with subjects at rest position, including frontal smile. Lateral cephalometric radiographs were organized in a PowerPoint® presentation and submitted to 20 raters. Method performance was assessed by examining reproducibility with Kappa test and calculating accuracy, sensitivity and positive predictive values, for which 70% was set as critical value. The gold standard of the classification was personally set by the author of the method. Results: Reproducibility was considered moderate (Kappa = 0.501); while accuracy, sensitivity and positive predictive values yielded similar results, but below 70%. Conclusions: The subjective method of facial classification employed in the present study still needs to have its morphological criteria improved in order to be used to discriminate the five facial patterns. PMID:28125141

  2. Monolayer cultivation of osteoprogenitors shortens duration of the embryonic stem cell test while reliably predicting developmental osteotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    zur Nieden, Nicole I; Davis, Lesley A; Rancourt, Derrick E

    2010-11-09

    Osteotoxic compounds administered during pregnancy can initiate skeletal congenital anomalies in the embryo. In vitro, developmental osteotoxicity of a compound can be predicted with the embryonic stem cell test (EST), the only in vitro embryotoxicity model identified to date that entirely abrogates the use of animals. Although the previously identified endpoint osteocalcin mRNA expression robustly predicts developmental osteotoxicity, it can only be assayed after 5 weeks of in vitro culture with existing embryoid body (EB)-based differentiation protocols. Therefore, the goal of this study was to characterize novel earlier endpoints of developmental osteotoxicity for the EST. The currently used EB-based differentiation protocol was modified so that a monolayer culture of pre-differentiated cells was inoculated. The expression profile of five bone-specific mRNAs, including osteocalcin, over the course of 30 differentiation days suggested an acceleration of pre-osteoblast specification in the monolayer over the EB-based protocol. Similarly, calcification was already visible after 14 days of culture in monolayer cultures. Employing image and absorption-based techniques to measure the degree of mineralization in these cells after compound treatment, the three compounds Penicillin G, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and all-trans retinoic acid (RA) were then tested after 14 days in monolayer cultures and compared to embryoid body-based differentiations at day 30. By modifying the culture the three test substances were classified correctly into non- or strong osteotoxic. Moreover, we were successful in shortening the assay duration from 30 to 14 days.

  3. Analysis of reliability, accuracy, sensitivity and predictive value of a subjective method to classify facial pattern in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Queiroz, Gilberto Vilanova; Rino, José; Paiva, João Batista de; Capelozza, Leopoldino

    2016-01-01

    Craniofacial pattern diagnosis is vital in Orthodontics, as it influences decision-making regarding treatment options and prognosis. Capelozza Filho proposed a subjective method for facial classification comprising five patterns: I, II, III, Long Face and Short Face. To investigate the accuracy of a subjective classification method of facial patterns applied to adults. A sample consisting of 52 adults was used for this study. Frontal and lateral view photographs were taken with subjects at rest position, including frontal smile. Lateral cephalometric radiographs were organized in a PowerPoint® presentation and submitted to 20 raters. Method performance was assessed by examining reproducibility with Kappa test and calculating accuracy, sensitivity and positive predictive values, for which 70% was set as critical value. The gold standard of the classification was personally set by the author of the method. Reproducibility was considered moderate (Kappa = 0.501); while accuracy, sensitivity and positive predictive values yielded similar results, but below 70%. The subjective method of facial classification employed in the present study still needs to have its morphological criteria improved in order to be used to discriminate the five facial patterns.

  4. Improving model prediction reliability through enhanced representation of wetland soil processes and constrained model auto calibration - A paired watershed study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi, Amirreza; Lang, Megan W.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Lee, Sangchul; Yen, Haw; Rabenhorst, Martin C.; Jeong, Jaehak; Yeo, In-Young

    2016-10-01

    Process based, distributed watershed models possess a large number of parameters that are not directly measured in field and need to be calibrated, in most cases through matching modeled in-stream fluxes with monitored data. Recently, concern has been raised regarding the reliability of this common calibration practice, because models that are deemed to be adequately calibrated based on commonly used metrics (e.g., Nash Sutcliffe efficiency) may not realistically represent intra-watershed responses or fluxes. Such shortcomings stem from the use of an evaluation criteria that only concerns the global in-stream responses of the model without investigating intra-watershed responses. In this study, we introduce a modification to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and a new calibration technique that collectively reduce the chance of misrepresenting intra-watershed responses. The SWAT model was modified to better represent NO3 cycling in soils with various degrees of water holding capacity. The new calibration tool has the capacity to calibrate paired watersheds simultaneously within a single framework. It was found that when both proposed methodologies were applied jointly to two paired watersheds on the Delmarva Peninsula, the performance of the models as judged based on conventional metrics suffered, however, the intra-watershed responses (e.g., mass of NO3 lost to denitrification) in the two models automatically converged to realistic sums. This approach also demonstrates the capacity to spatially distinguish areas of high denitrification potential, an ability that has implications for improved management of prior converted wetlands under crop production and for identifying prominent areas for wetland restoration.

  5. Human Reliability Prediction of Lifting Operation Based on RBF Neural Network%基于RBF的起重作业岗位人因可靠性预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王洪德; 马成正

    2012-01-01

    In order to improve the reliability of lifting operation, and prevent accident caused by human errors, bearing randomness, fuzziness and uncertainty of human error in mind, an RBF neural network-based method for analyzing the human error's nonlinear dynamics process was put forwarded. Taking the lifting operation as example, firstly, an indexes system about the human reliability prediction was constructed , which included the factors of the operator, the communion interface, the operating circumstance, the operating characteristics and the operating organization. Then the indexes were quantified. Secondly, according to human reliability analysis (HRA) theory and the scene record, the human error data were calculated out, and the human error rates were given. Finally, basing on the analysis of the operator's tiredness and emotion, information channels, operation complexity and time margin, lighting and wind power conditions, working pressure and safety supervision, an RBF neural network-based model for lifting operation human reliability was built. The results indicate that the RBF prediction includes the operation reliability as well as the cognitive reliability, and that the predictions results conform with the actual observed values up to 92. 0%.%为提高起重作业可靠性,防止人因失误酿成事故,针对人因失误的随机性、模糊性和不确定性特点,提出运用具有非线性映射能力和容错能力的径向基函数( RBF)神经网络,分析人因失误非线性动力学过程.以起重机操作岗位作为人因可靠性分析(HRA)实例,首先,建立基于“作业人员、交流界面、作业环境、作业特性、作业组织”的人因可靠性预测指标体系,并对指标进行量化;其次,根据人因可靠性原理,统计出人因失误次数,给出人因失误率;最后,通过对“人的疲劳和情绪、交流通道、作业复杂程度和时间裕度、照明环境和风力影响、工作强度和安全监管”等

  6. The Electricity Feed Law levy - how reliably can it be predicted?; Wie verlaesslich laesst sich die EEG-Umlage prognostizieren?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bause, Rainer; Schulz, Woldemar [Amprion GmbH, Dortmund (Germany); Buehler, Holger [EnBW TNG, Stuttgart (Germany); Hodurek, Claus [50Hertz Transmission GmbH, Berlin (Germany); Kiessling, Axel [TenneT TSO GmbH, Bayreuth (Germany)

    2011-10-15

    By paying their monthly electricity bill German consumers are promoting the transition to tomorrow's resource-efficient electricity supply system, in which the largest part of electricity used is to come from renewable energy resources. Every year Germany's transmission system operators publish what is referred to as the ''EEG-Umlage'' (report on the Electricity Feed Law levy, or EEG levy), which shows how much every German household will be paying for the promotion of renewable energies in the coming year. The determination of the EEG levy involves uncertainties and imponderabilities which have to be taken into account in its calculation. The crucial task is to find a suitable systematic scheme for predicting the renewable energy yield.

  7. Preliminary Derivation of Test Item Clusters for Predicting Injuries, Poor Physical Performance, and Overall Attrition in Basic Combat Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    examination and patient self-report measures for cervical radiculopathy. Spine. Jan 1 2003;28(1):52-62. 36 11. Wainner RS, Fritz JM, Irrgang JJ...foot orthosis use and modified activity: a preliminary investigation. Phys Ther. Jan 2004;84(1):49-61. 18. Solomon DH, Avorn J, Warsi A, et al

  8. LED system reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific ex

  9. The modified Dmax method is reliable to predict the second ventilatory threshold in elite cross-country skiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabre, Nicolas; Balestreri, Filippo; Pellegrini, Barbara; Schena, Federico

    2010-06-01

    This study was designed to evaluate, in elite cross-country skiers, the capacity of the DMAX lactate threshold method and its modified version (DMAX MOD) to accurately predict the second ventilatory threshold (VT2). Twenty-three elite cross-country skiers carried out an incremental roller-ski test on a motorized treadmill. Ventilation, heart rate (HR), and gas exchanges were continuously recorded during the test. Blood was sampled at the end of each 3-minute work stage for lactate concentration measurements. The VT2 was individually determined by visual analysis. The DMAX, DMAX MOD points also with the 4 mmol.L(-1) fixed lactate concentration value (4 mM) were determined by a computerized program. Paired t tests showed nonsignificant differences between HR at VT2 and HR at DMAX MOD, between HR at VT2 and HR at 4 mM, and between HR at DMAX MOD and HR at 4 mM. HR at DMAX was significantly lower than HR at VT2, DMAX MOD, and at 4 mM (pcross-country skiers.

  10. CYP2D6 polymorphisms may predict occurrence of adverse effects to tamoxifen: a preliminary retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wickramage I

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Ishani Wickramage,1 Kamani Hemamala Tennekoon,1 Merenchi Arachchige Yasantha Ariyaratne,2 Asanka Sudeshini Hewage,1 Tharmini Sundralingam,1 1Institute of Biochemistry, Molecular Biology and Biotechnology (IBMBB, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka; 2National Cancer Institute, Maharagama, Sri Lanka Introduction and aims: Tamoxifen is an adjuvant drug effective in treating hormone ­receptor – positive breast cancer. However, 30%–50% of patients relapse and many develop adverse effects, such as hot flashes and fatty liver. Allelic variations altering the activity of cytochrome P450-2D6 enzyme affect response to tamoxifen by modulating metabolism of tamoxifen into its pharmacologically active metabolite endoxifen. Although association between CYP2D6 polymorphisms and recurrence of breast cancer in patients on tamoxifen had been reported, little evidence exists on association between these polymorphisms and adverse effects to tamoxifen. This study explored the association between CYP2D6 polymorphisms and tamoxifen effects, hitherto not studied in Sri Lanka. Methods: A retrospective preliminary study was carried out on 24 breast cancer patients on tamoxifen for minimally 3 months attending National Cancer Institute, Maharagama, Sri Lanka. They were not on CYP2D6-inhibiting drugs, chemotherapy or other endocrine therapy, and had no conditions that could occur as adverse effects to tamoxifen before starting the therapy. Their blood samples were collected, DNA was extracted and genotyped using SNaPshot Multiplex sequencing based single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP assay. Results: SNP/allele frequencies detected: 1846G>A (confirmatory of *4 null allele=8.3%; 2549delA (confirmatory of *3 null allele=50%; 100C>T (suggestive of *10 reduced functional allele, in addition to other alleles=0%; combination of 2988G>A, -1584C and 2850C>T (strongly suggestive of *41 or other reduced functional allele=4.8%. Occurrence of heterozygous 2988G>A SNP with

  11. Preliminary clinical prediction rule for identifying patients with ankylosing spondylitis who are likely to respond to an exercise program: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Blanco, Cristina; Fernández-de-las-Peñas, César; Cleland, Joshua A

    2009-06-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a preliminary clinical prediction rule to identify the potential predictors for identifying patients presenting with ankylosing spondylitis who are likely to respond to a specific exercise program. Consecutive patients with ankylosing spondylitis underwent a standardized examination and then received eight physical therapy sessions during a 2-mo period, which included an exercise program based on the treatment of the shortened muscle chains, following the guideline described by the global posture re-education method. Patients were classified as having experienced a successful outcome at 1 mo after discharge based on a 20% reduction on Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index and self-report perceived recovery. Potential predictor variables were entered into a stepwise logistic regression model to determine the most accurate set of variables for identifying treatment success. Data from 35 patients were included, of which 16 (46%) experienced a successful outcome. A clinical prediction rule with three variables (physical role >37, bodily pain >27, and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index >31) was identified. The most accurate predictor of success was if the patient exhibited two of the three variables, and the positive likelihood ratio was 11.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.7-76.0) and the posttest probability of success increased to 91%. The accuracy of prediction declined if either 1/3 (+likelihood ratio = 7.7; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-113.5) or 3/3 (+likelihood ratio = 2.6, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-4.0) variables were present. The present preliminary clinical prediction rule provides the potential to identify patients with ankylosing spondylitis who are likely to experience short-term follow-up success with a specific exercise program. Future studies are necessary to validate the clinical prediction rule.

  12. Single-leg lateral, horizontal, and vertical jump assessment: reliability, interrelationships, and ability to predict sprint and change-of-direction performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meylan, Cesar; McMaster, Travis; Cronin, John; Mohammad, Nur Ikhwan; Rogers, Cailyn; Deklerk, Melissa

    2009-07-01

    The purposes of this study were to determine the reliability of unilateral vertical, horizontal, and lateral countermovement jump assessments, the interrelationship between these tests, and their usefulness as predictors of sprint (10 m) and change-of-direction (COD) performance for 80 men and women physical education students. Jump performance was assessed on a contact mat and sprint, and COD performances were assessed using timing lights. With regard to the reliability statistics, the largest coefficient of variation (CV) was observed for the vertical jump (CV = 6.7-7.2%) of both genders, whereas the sprint and COD assessments had smallest variability (CV = 0.8 to 2.8%). All intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were greater than 0.85, except for the men's COD assessment with the alternate leg. The shared variance between the single-leg vertical, horizontal, and lateral jumps for men and women was less than 50%, indicating that the jumps are relatively independent of one another and represent different leg strength/power qualities. The ability of the jumps to predict sprint and COD performance was limited (R2 women (R sprint and COD performance in a test battery, the single-leg horizontal countermovement jump would seem the logical choice, given the results of this study. Many of the findings in this study have interesting diagnostic and training implications for the strength and conditioning coach.

  13. Experimental Investigation Related To Some Predicted Results Of Reliable High Frequency Radio Communication Links Between Benghazi-Libya And Cairo-Egypt.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Yousef Ahmed Abou-Hussein

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the central radio propagation laboratory (CRPL method of ionospheric prediction of the National Bureau of Standards (NBS in U.S.A was used in practical calculations of the optimal working frequencies for reliable high frequency (HF radio communication links between Benghazi-Libya and Cairo-Egypt. The results were drawn in the form of curves by using the computer. The computer was used to measure the received signal level variation of frequencies 11.980 MHz, 11.785 MHz which were transmitted with a power of 250 KW, 100 KW respectively from the Egypt Arabic Republic Broadcasting station in Cairo city, directed to the North Africa and South Europe regions. The measurements were taken during daytime's for winter (December, January& February and summer (June, July & August seasons.

  14. MEMS reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Hartzell, Allyson L; Shea, Herbert R

    2010-01-01

    This book focuses on the reliability and manufacturability of MEMS at a fundamental level. It demonstrates how to design MEMs for reliability and provides detailed information on the different types of failure modes and how to avoid them.

  15. Can the Ordered Multi-Stepping Over Hoop test be useful for predicting fallers among older people? A preliminary 1 year cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumimoto, Kota; Doi, Takehiko; Misu, Shogo; Ono, Rei; Hirata, Soichiro

    2013-08-01

    To prevent falls among older people, we developed a new fall-risk assessment, the "Ordered Multi-Stepping Over Hoop (OMO)" test. The aims of this study were preliminary: to investigate the association of the OMO with cognitive and physical function and to investigate whether the OMO could predict incidents of falling. Fifty-nine community-dwelling older people (mean age = 88.0 ± 0.87, female = 49) were recruited. We assessed cognitive and physical function including the OMO test at baseline and monitored the falls of participants during a 12-month follow-up period from the baseline. We investigated whether the OMO was associated with cognitive function, physical function, and incidents of falling. To investigate whether the OMO could predict incidents of falling, a receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted. The OMO time in fallers was significantly slower than for non-fallers. There were significant correlations between slower OMO times and lower physical functions and executive function. The area under the ROC curve in the OMO was 0.71 (p OMO identified those more likely to fall. The OMO time was correlated with cognitive function, physical function, and incidents of falling. Our preliminary study indicates that the OMO may help to make a distinction between fallers and non-fallers among older people as effectively as other tests.

  16. A text-based data mining and toxicity prediction modeling system for a clinical decision support in radiation oncology: A preliminary study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwang Hyeon; Lee, Suk; Shim, Jang Bo; Chang, Kyung Hwan; Yang, Dae Sik; Yoon, Won Sup; Park, Young Je; Kim, Chul Yong; Cao, Yuan Jie

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study is an integrated research for text-based data mining and toxicity prediction modeling system for clinical decision support system based on big data in radiation oncology as a preliminary research. The structured and unstructured data were prepared by treatment plans and the unstructured data were extracted by dose-volume data image pattern recognition of prostate cancer for research articles crawling through the internet. We modeled an artificial neural network to build a predictor model system for toxicity prediction of organs at risk. We used a text-based data mining approach to build the artificial neural network model for bladder and rectum complication predictions. The pattern recognition method was used to mine the unstructured toxicity data for dose-volume at the detection accuracy of 97.9%. The confusion matrix and training model of the neural network were achieved with 50 modeled plans (n = 50) for validation. The toxicity level was analyzed and the risk factors for 25% bladder, 50% bladder, 20% rectum, and 50% rectum were calculated by the artificial neural network algorithm. As a result, 32 plans could cause complication but 18 plans were designed as non-complication among 50 modeled plans. We integrated data mining and a toxicity modeling method for toxicity prediction using prostate cancer cases. It is shown that a preprocessing analysis using text-based data mining and prediction modeling can be expanded to personalized patient treatment decision support based on big data.

  17. Spino-pelvic parameters after surgery can be predicted: a preliminary formula and validation of standing alignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafage, Virginie; Schwab, Frank; Vira, Shaleen; Patel, Ashish; Ungar, Benjamin; Farcy, Jean-Pierre

    2011-06-01

    Prospective and retrospective radiographic study of adult patients with spinal deformities. Construct predictive models for pelvic tilt (PT) and global sagittal balance (sagittal vertical axis [SVA]) and evaluate the effectiveness of these predictive models against a group of patients after pedicle subtraction osteotomy. Spinal balance involves a complex interaction between the pelvis and vertebral column. In the setting of adult spinal deformity, prediction of postoperative alignment can be challenging. The study included 219 adult patients treated for spinal deformity. Full-length standing films were available for all subjects. Multilinear models with a stepwise condition were used on the first group of patients (n = 179) to predict PT and global sagittal balance (measured by the SVA). Prediction models were then applied on a second group of patients (n = 40) to estimate postoperative radiographic parameters after pedicle subtraction osteotomy surgery. Differences between estimated parameters and real values were evaluated. Multilinear regression analysis applied on the first group of patients led to a predictive formula for PT (r = 0.93, standard error = 4.4°) using the following parameters: pelvic incidence, maximal lordosis, and maximal kyphosis. These parameters with the addition of the predicted PT were then used to predict the SVA (r = 0.89, standard error = 32 mm). Validation of predictive models (second group of patients) used pelvic incidence and postoperative sagittal curves. Postoperative PT was predicted with a mean error of 4.3° (SD 3.5°) and postoperative SVA was predicted with a mean error of 29 mm (SD = 23 mm). This is the first study to develop and validate pragmatic predictive models for key spino-pelvic parameters (PT and SVA) in the setting of adult spinal deformity. Using a morphologic pelvic parameter (pelvic incidence) and spinal parameters modifiable through surgery (lumbar lordosis and thoracic kyphosis), postoperative sagittal

  18. Factor analysis of the Caregiver Quality of Life Index-Cancer (CQOLC scale for Chinese cancer caregivers: a preliminary reliability and validity study of the CQOLC-Chinese version.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaobo Duan

    Full Text Available The English version of the Caregiver Quality of Life Index-Cancer (CQOLC was translated into simplified Chinese (CQOLC-C, following cultural translation, back-translation and pretest steps. Three hundred and sixty one cancer caregivers participated in this study. Cronbach's alpha was used to assess CQOLC-C reliability. Exploratory factor analyses (EFA was used to generate two models of the measure's factor structure, and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA were used to test each model, such that the best model to explain the latent structure of the CQOLC-C was identified. EFA using different factor extraction methods yielded two models including four and eight factors. According to the CFA results, model 2 was better fit for the original study data, based on the RMSEA criterion [0.058(90% CI = 0.051-0.065], χ2 (531 = 853.92, p < 0.0001; CFI (0.96, NNFI (0.96, IFI (0.97, and NFI (0.92. We also examined the effect of removing three items on the CQOLC-C factor structure and discuss the resulting differences from other versions. These results indicate that the CQOLC-C's factor structure does not fully fit the original theorized model. This study provides preliminary support for further use of the CQOLC-C. However, the present work provides only partial support for the relevance and construct validity of the scale for Chinese caregivers.

  19. Software Reliability: Estimation and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-12-31

    5 COMPUTE 0 2 6 9 15 23 DATAVAL 0 3 6 11 16 23 INIT 0 1 3 5 9 15 IU4IRE 0 1 3 4 6 8 INTERI 0 4 1 2 2 3 LOGIC 0 4 10 18 30 50 TOTAL 0 15 29 50 78 122...34 dataval ", "init- "intere", "interi" and "logic" are distinguished in the ERBS project acceptance phase, for example. The number of failures of each type

  20. Reliability Prediction for Aerospace Electronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-20

    memory, SRAM and DRAM, MEMS and laser programmable metal interconnect. He has licensed his technology and consulted for RFID and SRAM applications...failure mechanisms that would occur due to each new technology that is developed and model those physics of failure so that a final test matrix can

  1. Predicting relatedness and self-definition depressive experiences in aging women based on personality traits: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriques-Calado, Joana; Duarte-Silva, Maria Eugénia; Campos, Rui C; Sacoto, Carlota; Keong, Ana Marta; Junqueira, Diana

    2013-01-01

    As part of the research relating personality and depression, this study seeks to predict depressive experiences in aging women according to Sidney Blatt's perspective based on the Five-Factor Model of Personality. The NEO-Five Factor Inventory and the Depressive Experiences Questionnaire were administered. The domains Neuroticism, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness predicted self-criticism, explaining 68% of the variance; the domains Neuroticism and Extraversion predicted dependency, explaining 62% of the variance. The subfactors Neediness and Connectedness were differently related to personality traits. These findings are relevant to the research relating personality and anaclitic / introjective depressive experiences in late adulthood.

  2. A random forest based risk model for reliable and accurate prediction of receipt of transfusion in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hitinder S Gurm

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transfusion is a common complication of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI and is associated with adverse short and long term outcomes. There is no risk model for identifying patients most likely to receive transfusion after PCI. The objective of our study was to develop and validate a tool for predicting receipt of blood transfusion in patients undergoing contemporary PCI. METHODS: Random forest models were developed utilizing 45 pre-procedural clinical and laboratory variables to estimate the receipt of transfusion in patients undergoing PCI. The most influential variables were selected for inclusion in an abbreviated model. Model performance estimating transfusion was evaluated in an independent validation dataset using area under the ROC curve (AUC, with net reclassification improvement (NRI used to compare full and reduced model prediction after grouping in low, intermediate, and high risk categories. The impact of procedural anticoagulation on observed versus predicted transfusion rates were assessed for the different risk categories. RESULTS: Our study cohort was comprised of 103,294 PCI procedures performed at 46 hospitals between July 2009 through December 2012 in Michigan of which 72,328 (70% were randomly selected for training the models, and 30,966 (30% for validation. The models demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination (AUC: full model  = 0.888 (95% CI 0.877-0.899, reduced model AUC = 0.880 (95% CI, 0.868-0.892, p for difference 0.003, NRI = 2.77%, p = 0.007. Procedural anticoagulation and radial access significantly influenced transfusion rates in the intermediate and high risk patients but no clinically relevant impact was noted in low risk patients, who made up 70% of the total cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of transfusion among patients undergoing PCI can be reliably calculated using a novel easy to use computational tool (https://bmc2.org/calculators/transfusion. This risk prediction

  3. Optimizing the fMRI data-processing pipeline using prediction and reproducibility performance metrics: I. A preliminary group analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strother, Stephen C.; Conte, Stephen La; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2004-01-01

    of baseline scans have constant, equal means, and this assumption was assessed with prediction metrics. Higher-order polynomial warps compared to affine alignment had only a minor impact on the performance metrics. We found that both prediction and reproducibility metrics were required for optimizing......We argue that published results demonstrate that new insights into human brain function may be obscured by poor and/or limited choices in the data-processing pipeline, and review the work on performance metrics for optimizing pipelines: prediction, reproducibility, and related empirical Receiver...... Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve metrics. Using the NPAIRS split-half resampling framework for estimating prediction/reproducibility metrics (Strother et al., 2002), we illustrate its use by testing the relative importance of selected pipeline components (interpolation, in-plane spatial smoothing...

  4. Reliable MPR Selection Algorithm Based on Link Prediction%基于链路预测的可靠MPR选择算法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭玉婷; 李强

    2015-01-01

    In order to reduce the effect of the mobility of mobile ad-hoc network(MANET)on routing performance, this paper proposed a reliable MPR selection algorithm based on link prediction. The valid time of remaining chain between this node and adjacent node was predicted by both the distance between nodes and the range of wireless transmission. The paper also proposed a new measuring method on selecting multi-point relay by applying the remaining link effective time(RTTQ)as OLSR routing protocol. A lot of NS2 network simulation were conducted in this paper.The results show that a number of properties,such as MPR survival time, packet delivery ratio (PDR) and average throughput(ATT),can be improved by using the MPR nodes,in which the RTTQ was greater than the critical value.%为了降低移动自组织网络(MANET)中移动性对路由性能造成的影响,该文提出基于链路预测的可靠MPR选择算法,通过节点间距离和无线传输范围来预测节点与其相邻节点之间的剩余链路有效时间,并提出将剩余链路有效时间(RTTQ)作为OLSR路由协议选择多点中继(MPR)的新的度量方法。利用NS2进行了大量的网络仿真,结果显示采用RTTQ大于临界值的MPR节点,可以提高多项性能,如MPR生存时间、分组交付率(PDR)和平均吞吐量(ATT)。

  5. Appraising bacterial strains for rapid BOD sensing--an empirical test to identify bacterial strains capable of reliably predicting real effluent BODs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webber, Judith B; Noonan, Mike; Pasco, Neil F; Hay, Joanne M

    2011-01-01

    The measured response of rapid biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) biosensors is often not identical to those measured using the conventional 5-day BOD assay. This paper highlights the efficacy of using both glucose-glutamic acid (GGA) and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) BOD standards as a rapid screen for microorganisms most likely to reliably predict real effluent BODs when used in rapid BOD devices. Using these two synthetic BOD standards, a microorganism was identified that produced comparable BOD response profiles for two assays, the MICREDOX® assay and the conventional 5-day BOD(5) test. A factorial experimental design systematically evaluated the impact of four factors (microbial strain, growth media composition, media strength, and microbial growth phase) on the BOD response profiles using GGA and OECD synthetic standard substrates. An outlier was identified that showed an improved correlation between the MICREDOX® BOD (BOD(sens)) and BOD(5) assays for both the synthetic standards and for real wastewater samples. Microbial strain was the dominant factor influencing BOD(sens) values, with Arthrobacter globiformis single cultures clearly demonstrating superior rapid BOD(sens) response profiles for both synthetic and real waste samples. It was the only microorganism to approach the BOD(5) response for the OECD substrate (171 mg O(2)L(-1)), and also reported BOD values for real waste samples that were comparable to those produced by the BOD(5) test, including discriminating between filtered and unfiltered samples.

  6. Reliable Prediction with Tuned Range-Separated Functionals of the Singlet-Triplet Gap in Organic Emitters for Thermally Activated Delayed Fluorescence (TADF)

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Haitao

    2015-07-09

    The thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) mechanism has recently attracted much interest in the field of organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs). TADF relies on the presence of a very small energy gap between the lowest singlet and triplet excited states. Here, we demonstrate that time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) in the Tamm-Dancoff Approximation can be very successful in the calculations of the lowest singlet and triplet excitation energies and the corresponding singlet-triplet gap when using nonempirically tuned range-separated functionals. Such functionals provide very good estimates in a series of 17 molecules used in TADF-based OLED devices, with mean absolute deviations of 0.15 eV for the vertical singlet excitation energies and 0.09 eV [0.07 eV] for the adiabatic [vertical] singlet-triplet energy gaps as well as low relative errors and high correlation coefficients compared to the corresponding experimental values. They significantly outperform conventional functionals, a feature which is rationalized on the basis of the amount of exact-exchange included and the delocalization error. The present work provides a reliable theoretical tool for the prediction and development of novel TADF-based materials with low singlet-triplet energetic splittings.

  7. Predicting Rib Fracture Risk With Whole-Body Finite Element Models: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Probabilistic Analytical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forman, Jason L.; Kent, Richard W.; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5–7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992–2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

  8. [Preliminary application of Back-Propagation artificial neural network model on the prediction of infectious diarrhea incidence in Shanghai].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian; Gu, Jun-zhong; Mao, Sheng-hua; Xiao, Wen-jia; Jin, Hui-ming; Zheng, Ya-xu; Wang, Yong-ming; Hu, Jia-yu

    2013-12-01

    To establish BP artificial neural network predicting model regarding the daily cases of infectious diarrhea in Shanghai. Data regarding both the incidence of infectious diarrhea from 2005 to 2008 in Shanghai and meteorological factors including temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, atmospheric pressure, duration of sunshine and wind speed within the same periods were collected and analyzed with the MatLab R2012b software. Meteorological factors that were correlated with infectious diarrhea were screened by Spearman correlation analysis. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to remove the multi-colinearities between meteorological factors. Back-Propagation (BP) neural network was employed to establish related prediction models regarding the daily infectious diarrhea incidence, using artificial neural networks toolbox. The established models were evaluated through the fitting, predicting and forecasting processes. Data from Spearman correlation analysis indicated that the incidence of infectious diarrhea had a highly positive correlation with factors as daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, minimum relative humidity and average relative humidity in the previous two days (P neural network model were established under the input of 4 meteorological principal components, extracted by PCA and used for training and prediction. Then appeared to be 4.7811, 6.8921,0.7918,0.8418 and 5.8163, 7.8062,0.7202,0.8180, respectively. The rate on mean error regarding the predictive value to actual incidence in 2008 was 5.30% and the forecasting precision reached 95.63% . Temperature and air pressure showed important impact on the incidence of infectious diarrhea. The BP neural network model had the advantages of low simulation forecasting errors and high forecasting hit rate that could ideally predict and forecast the effects on the incidence of infectious diarrhea.

  9. Structural Reliability Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

    of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature......The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...

  10. On which term is the prediction of the behaviour of glass necessary and reliable?; A quelle echeance la prediction du comportement a long terme des verres de confinement est-elle necessaire et realiste?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefevre, J. [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

    1997-07-01

    The author questions the ethics of the deep underground storage of high-level radioactive wastes. The time periods that are considered for the confinement are so long that it is completely impossible to predict the way of life of people at that time and the level of knowledge they will have reached. There is a total agreement about the ethics principle of not jeopardizing life and environment of future generations but the difficulty is to draw the limits of this protection. In the regulations of most countries 2 periods of time are defined: the first 500 years and 10.000 years. 500 years is the period of high heat releases due to the decay of most fission products and is also a reasonable time during which the confining site (structures and packages) stays accessible. 10.000 years is considered as the period of time during which predictions are reliable, beyond this time uncertainties become too important and more and more numerous. (A.C.)

  11. Value of CT to predict surgically important bowel and/or mesenteric injury in blunt trauma: performance of a preliminary scoring system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faget, Claire; Taourel, Patrice; Ruyer, Alban; Alili, Chakib; Millet, Ingrid [CHU Lapeyronie, Department of Medical Imaging, Montpellier (France); Charbit, Jonathan [CHU Lapeyronie, Department of Intensive Care and Anesthesiology, Montpellier (France); Molinari, Nicolas [UMR 729 MISTEA, CHU Montpellier, Department of Medical Information and Statistics, Montpellier (France)

    2015-12-15

    To evaluate the performance of a computed tomography (CT) diagnostic score to predict surgical treatment for blunt bowel and/or mesentery injury (BBMI) in consecutive abdominal trauma. This was a retrospective observational study of 805 consecutive abdominal traumas with 556 patients included and screened by an abdominal radiologist blinded to the patient outcome, to evaluate numerous CT findings and calculate their diagnostic performances. These CT findings were compared using univariate and multivariate analysis between patients who had a laparotomy-confirmed BBMI requiring surgical repair, and those without BBMI requiring surgery. A CT score was obtained with an internal bootstrap validation. Fifty-six patients (10.1 %) had BBMI requiring surgery. Nine CT signs were independently associated with BBMI requiring surgery and were used to develop a CT diagnostic score. The AUC of our model was 0.98 (95 % CI 0.96-100), with a ≥5 cut-off. Its diagnostic performance was determined by internal validation: sensitivity 91.1-100 %, specificity 85.7-97.6 %, positive predictive value 41.4-82.3 % and negative predictive value 98.9-100 %. Bowel wall discontinuity and mesenteric pneumoperitoneum had the strongest association with BBMI requiring surgery (OR = 128.9 and 140.5, respectively). We developed a reliable CT scoring system which is easy to implement and highly predictive of BBMI requiring surgery. (orig.)

  12. Reliability Engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Lazzaroni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be

  13. Simple Modification of the Bladder Outlet Obstruction Index for Better Prediction of Endoscopically-Proven Prostatic Obstruction: A Preliminary Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jang Hee Han

    Full Text Available The bladder outlet obstruction index (BOOI, also known as the Abrams-Griffiths (AG number, is the most widely used index for predicting BOO. However, the obstructed prostatic urethra determined by the BOOI is often inconsistent with endoscopically-proven obstruction. We assessed abdominal straining pattern as a novel parameter for improving the prediction of BOO.We retrospectively reviewed the pressure-flow studies (PFS and cystourethroscopy in 176 BPH/LUTS patients who were unresponsive to medical therapy. During PFS, some groups of patients tried to urinate with abdominal straining, which can increases intravesical pressure and underestimate BOOI theoretically. Accordingly, the modified BOOI was defined as (PdetQmax+ΔPabd-2Qmax.Ultimately, 130 patients were eligible for the analysis. In PFS, ΔPabd (PabdQmax-initial Pabd was 11.81±13.04 cmH2O, and it was 0-9 cmH2O in 75 (57.7%, 10-19 cmH2O in 23 (17.7% and ≥20 cmH2O in 32 (24.6% patients. An endoscopically obstructed prostatic urethra in 92 patients was correctly determined in 47 patients (51.1% by the original BOOI versus 72 patients (78.3% based on the modified BOOI. Meanwhile, an "unobstructed" urethra according to the original BOOI was present in 11 patients (12.0%, whereas according to the modified BOOI, only 2 (2.1% would be labeled as "unobstructed". In receiver operating characteristic curves, the area under the curve was 0.906 using the modified BOOI number versus 0.849 in the original BOOI (p<0.05.The change in abdominal pressure was correlated with endoscopically-proven obstruction. Our simple modification of the BOOI on the basis of this finding better predicted bladder outlet obstruction and, therefore, should be considered when evaluating BOO in patients with LUTS/BPH.

  14. Predictive value of advanced glycation end products for the development of post-infarction heart failure: a preliminary report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raposeiras-Roubín Sergio

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since post-infarction heart failure (HF determines a great morbidity and mortality, and given the physiopathology implications of advanced glycation end products (AGE in the genesis of myocardial dysfunction, it was intended to analyze the prognostic value of these molecules in order to predict post-infarction HF development. Methods A prospective clinical study in patients after first acute coronary syndrome was conducted. The follow-up period was consisted in 1 year. In 194 patients consecutively admitted in the coronary unit for myocardial infarct fluorescent AGE levels were measured. The association between glycaemic parameters and the development of post-infarction HF were analyzed in those patients. Finally, we identified the variables with independent predictor value by performing a multivariate analysis of Hazard ratio for Cox regression. Results Eleven out of 194 patients (5.6% developed HF during follow-up (median: 1.0 years [0.8 - 1.5 years]. Even though basal glucose, fructosamine and glycated haemoglobin were significant predictive factors in the univariate analysis, after being adjusted by confounding variables and AGE they lost their statistical signification. Only AGE (Hazard Ratio 1.016, IC 95%: 1.006-1.026; p Conclusions AGE are an independent marker of post-infarction HF development risk.

  15. Predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in primary breast cancer using volumetric helical perfusion computed tomography: a preliminary study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Sonia P.; Makris, Andreas [Academic Oncology Unit, Mount Vernon Cancer Centre, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Gogbashian, Andrew; Simcock, Ian C.; Stirling, J.J. [Paul Strickland Scanner Centre, Mount Vernon Cancer Centre, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Goh, Vicky [Paul Strickland Scanner Centre, Mount Vernon Cancer Centre, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Lambeth Wing, St Thomas' Hospital, Division of Imaging Sciences, Kings College London, London (United Kingdom)

    2012-09-15

    To investigate whether CT-derived vascular parameters in primary breast cancer predict complete pathological response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). Twenty prospective patients with primary breast cancer due for NAC underwent volumetric helical perfusion CT to derive whole tumour regional blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV) and flow extraction product (FE) by deconvolution analysis. A pCR was achieved if no residual invasive cancer was detectable on pathological examination. Relationships between baseline BF, BV, FE, tumour size and volume, and pCR were examined using the Mann-Whitney U test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess the parameter best able to predict response. Intra- and inter-observer variability was assessed using Bland-Altman statistics. Seventeen out of 20 patients completed NAC with four achieving a pCR. Baseline BF and FE were higher in patients who achieved a pCR compared with those who did not (P = 0.032); tumour size and volume were not significantly different (P > 0.05). ROC analysis revealed that BF and FE were able to identify responders effectively (AUC = 0.87; P = 0.03). There was good intra- and inter-observer agreement. Primary breast cancers which exhibited higher levels of perfusion before treatment were more likely to achieve a pCR to NAC. (orig.)

  16. Forgetting the best when predicting the worst: Preliminary observations on neural circuit function in adolescent social anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna M. Jarcho

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Social anxiety disorder typically begins in adolescence, a sensitive period for brain development, when increased complexity and salience of peer relationships requires novel forms of social learning. Disordered social learning in adolescence may explain how brain dysfunction promotes social anxiety. Socially anxious adolescents (n = 15 and adults (n = 19 and non-anxious adolescents (n = 24 and adults (n = 32 predicted, then received, social feedback from high and low-value peers while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. A surprise recall task assessed memory biases for feedback. Neural correlates of social evaluation prediction errors (PEs were assessed by comparing engagement to expected and unexpected positive and negative feedback. For socially anxious adolescents, but not adults or healthy participants of either age group, PEs elicited heightened striatal activity and negative fronto-striatal functional connectivity. This occurred selectively to unexpected positive feedback from high-value peers and corresponded with impaired memory for social feedback. While impaired memory also occurred in socially-anxious adults, this impairment was unrelated to brain-based PE activity. Thus, social anxiety in adolescence may relate to altered neural correlates of PEs that contribute to impaired learning about social feedback. Small samples necessitate replication. Nevertheless, results suggest that the relationship between learning and fronto-striatal function may attenuate as development progresses.

  17. CE -3有效载荷 APXS 可靠性预计及评估%The Reliability Prediction and Assessment of Chang'E-3 Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高旻; 王焕玉; 张承模; 崔兴柱; 梁晓华; 彭文溪

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the reliability prediction of Chang'E-3 Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer. The payload is aimed to identify elements of lunar surface, and it is capable to determine the abundances of the elements.Weakness in the design could be found by calculating the reliability of the APXS reliability prediction reliability of a given comparison.APXS electronics systems carry out aging tests.The life factor of operating temperature could be obtained by Arrhenius reaction model.And then the reliability prediction of the results could be assessed through Bayesian point estimation and Bayesian internal estimation method.The main factors affecting the results were discussed.The reliability requirements of APXS under the development phase are pro-posed.%粒子激发X射线谱仪( APXS)是以元素成分鉴别和定量分析为目标的CE-3巡视器有效载荷。该工作针对APXS电子学系统建立了可靠性模型,并进行了可靠性预计。通过对APXS可靠性预计计算的可靠度与给定的可靠度进行对比,发现设计中的薄弱环节。对APXS电子学系统进行老化试验,用阿伦尼乌斯( ARRHENISUS)反应模型获得了工作温度下的寿命因子,利用贝叶斯法点估计和区间估计对试验的结果进行了可靠性评估,并对影响结果的主要因素进行讨论,提出APXS研制阶段的各项可靠性要求。

  18. Bivariate Left-Censored Bayesian Model for Predicting Exposure: Preliminary Analysis of Worker Exposure during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groth, Caroline; Banerjee, Sudipto; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Stenzel, Mark R; Sandler, Dale P; Blair, Aaron; Engel, Lawrence S; Kwok, Richard K; Stewart, Patricia A

    2017-01-01

    In April 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caught fire and exploded, releasing almost 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico over the ensuing 3 months. Thousands of oil spill workers participated in the spill response and clean-up efforts. The GuLF STUDY being conducted by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences is an epidemiological study to investigate potential adverse health effects among these oil spill clean-up workers. Many volatile chemicals were released from the oil into the air, including total hydrocarbons (THC), which is a composite of the volatile components of oil including benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, and hexane (BTEXH). Our goal is to estimate exposure levels to these toxic chemicals for groups of oil spill workers in the study (hereafter called exposure groups, EGs) with likely comparable exposure distributions. A large number of air measurements were collected, but many EGs are characterized by datasets with a large percentage of censored measurements (below the analytic methods' limits of detection) and/or a limited number of measurements. We use THC for which there was less censoring to develop predictive linear models for specific BTEXH air exposures with higher degrees of censoring. We present a novel Bayesian hierarchical linear model that allows us to predict, for different EGs simultaneously, exposure levels of a second chemical while accounting for censoring in both THC and the chemical of interest. We illustrate the methodology by estimating exposure levels for several EGs on the Development Driller III, a rig vessel charged with drilling one of the relief wells. The model provided credible estimates in this example for geometric means, arithmetic means, variances, correlations, and regression coefficients for each group. This approach should be considered when estimating exposures in situations when multiple chemicals are correlated and have varying degrees of censoring.

  19. Measuring social skills of children and adolescents in a Chinese population: Preliminary evidence on the reliability and validity of the translated Chinese version of the Social Skills Improvement System-Rating Scales (SSIS-RS-C).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Phoebe P P; Siu, Andrew M H; Brown, Ted

    2017-01-01

    The Social Skills Improvement System-Rating Scales (SSIS-RS; Gresham & Elliott, 2008) are designed to assist in the screening and classification of students (aged 5-18 years) who are suspected of presenting with social skills deficits and to offer guidelines in the development of interventions to remediate those types of problems. The objective of this study is to examine the preliminary reliability and validity of the translated Chinese version of the SSIS-RS, referred to as the SSIS-RS-C. In this study, parent-reported social skills and problem behaviors among students with typical development (n=79) were compared with those of age- and gender-matched students with a known developmental disability (n=79) using the SSIS-RS-C. The results indicated that the SSIS-RS-C subscale scores in all the disability groups were significantly different except for those in the Assertion scale for one disability group. Furthermore, the normative sample of typically developing children and adolescents (aged 5-12 and 13-18 years, n=567) from Hong Kong was established to improve the psychometric properties of the SSIS-RS-C. There were moderate to strong relationships between the common subscales across all forms of the SSIS-RS-C. Acceptable to excellent levels of internal consistency across all common subscales was also obtained. The scores for the Hong Kong sample (n=567) derived from the use of the SSIS-RS-C were then compared to the normative sample scores from the American version of the SSIS-RS. It was found that there were statistically significant differences on five out of the seven SSIS-RS-C Social Skill subscales for children aged 5-12 years and on four out of the seven SSIS-RS-C Social Skills subscales for the adolescent group (aged 13-18 years). Also, there were statistically significant differences between the American and Hong Kong samples on all of the SSIS-RS-C Problem Behavior scale scores. It was concluded that the SSIS-RS-C is a promising instrument for clinicians

  20. Application of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score to predict outcome in critically ill dogs: preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripanti, D; Dino, G; Piovano, G; Farca, A

    2012-08-01

    In human medicine the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is one of the most commonly organ dysfunction scoring systems used to assess critically ill patients and to predict the outcome in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). It is composed of scores from six organ systems (respiratory, cardiovascular, hepatic, coagulation, renal, and neurological) graded according to the degree of the dysfunction. The aim of the current study was to describe the applicability of the SOFA score in assessing the outcome of critically ill dogs. A total of 45 dogs admitted to the ICU was enrolled. Among these, 40 dogs completed the study: 50 % survived and left the veterinary clinic. The SOFA score was computed for each dog every 24 hours for the first 3 days of ICU stay, starting on the day of admission. A statistically significant correlation between SOFA score and death or survival was found. Most of the dogs showing an increase of the SOFA score in the first 3 days of hospitalization died, whereas the dogs with a decrease of the score survived. These results suggest that the SOFA score system could be considered a useful indicator of prognosis in ICUs hospitalized dogs.

  1. Variations in genes regulating neuronal migration predict reduced prefrontal cognition in schizophrenia and bipolar subjects from mediterranean Spain: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabarés-Seisdedos, R; Escámez, T; Martínez-Giménez, J A; Balanzá, V; Salazar, J; Selva, G; Rubio, C; Vieta, E; Geijó-Barrientos, E; Martínez-Arán, A; Reiner, O; Martínez, S

    2006-01-01

    Both neural development and prefrontal cortex function are known to be abnormal in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. In order to test the hypothesis that these features may be related with genes that regulate neuronal migration, we analyzed two genomic regions: the lissencephaly critical region (chromosome 17p) encompassing the LIS1 gene and which is involved in human lissencephaly; and the genes related to the platelet-activating-factor, functionally related to LIS1, in 52 schizophrenic patients, 36 bipolar I patients and 65 normal control subjects. In addition, all patients and the 25 control subjects completed a neuropsychological battery. Thirteen (14.8%) patients showed genetic variations in either two markers related with lissencephaly or in the platelet-activating-factor receptor gene. These patients performed significantly worse in the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test-Perseverative Errors in comparison with patients with no lissencephaly critical region/platelet-activating-factor receptor variations. The presence of lissencephaly critical region/platelet-activating-factor receptor variations was parametrically related to perseverative errors, and this accounted for 17% of the variance (P = 0.0001). Finally, logistic regression showed that poor Wisconsin Card Sorting Test-Perseverative Errors performance was the only predictor of belonging to the positive lissencephaly critical region/platelet-activating-factor receptor group. These preliminary findings suggest that the variations in genes involved in neuronal migration predict the severity of the prefrontal cognitive deficits in both disorders.

  2. Neurophysiological correlates of response inhibition predict relapse in detoxified alcoholic patients: some preliminary evidence from event-related potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petit G

    2014-06-01

    response-inhibition skills that demand greater neural resources. We propose that event-related potentials can be used in conjunction with behavioral data to predict relapse; this would identify patients that need a higher level of neural resources when suppressing a response is requested.Keywords: alcoholism, relapse, response inhibition, go/no-go task, ERPs, P3d 

  3. Nuclear weapon reliability evaluation methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, D.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1993-06-01

    This document provides an overview of those activities that are normally performed by Sandia National Laboratories to provide nuclear weapon reliability evaluations for the Department of Energy. These reliability evaluations are first provided as a prediction of the attainable stockpile reliability of a proposed weapon design. Stockpile reliability assessments are provided for each weapon type as the weapon is fielded and are continuously updated throughout the weapon stockpile life. The reliability predictions and assessments depend heavily on data from both laboratory simulation and actual flight tests. An important part of the methodology are the opportunities for review that occur throughout the entire process that assure a consistent approach and appropriate use of the data for reliability evaluation purposes.

  4. Reliability and validity of the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Chau

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Wolfram syndrome (WFS is a rare, neurodegenerative disease that typically presents with childhood onset insulin dependent diabetes mellitus, followed by optic atrophy, diabetes insipidus, deafness, and neurological and psychiatric dysfunction. There is no cure for the disease, but recent advances in research have improved understanding of the disease course. Measuring disease severity and progression with reliable and validated tools is a prerequisite for clinical trials of any new intervention for neurodegenerative conditions. To this end, we developed the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS to measure the severity and individual variability of WFS symptoms. The aim of this study is to develop and test the reliability and validity of the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS. Methods A rating scale of disease severity in WFS was developed by modifying a standardized assessment for another neurodegenerative condition (Batten disease. WFS experts scored the representativeness of WURS items for the disease. The WURS was administered to 13 individuals with WFS (6-25 years of age. Motor, balance, mood and quality of life were also evaluated with standard instruments. Inter-rater reliability, internal consistency reliability, concurrent, predictive and content validity of the WURS were calculated. Results The WURS had high inter-rater reliability (ICCs>.93, moderate to high internal consistency reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.78-0.91 and demonstrated good concurrent and predictive validity. There were significant correlations between the WURS Physical Assessment and motor and balance tests (rs>.67, ps>.76, ps=-.86, p=.001. The WURS demonstrated acceptable content validity (Scale-Content Validity Index=0.83. Conclusions These preliminary findings demonstrate that the WURS has acceptable reliability and validity and captures individual differences in disease severity in children and young adults with WFS.

  5. VCSEL reliability: a user's perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    McElfresh, David K.; Lopez, Leoncio D.; Melanson, Robert; Vacar, Dan

    2005-03-01

    VCSEL arrays are being considered for use in interconnect applications that require high speed, high bandwidth, high density, and high reliability. In order to better understand the reliability of VCSEL arrays, we initiated an internal project at SUN Microsystems, Inc. In this paper, we present preliminary results of an ongoing accelerated temperature-humidity-bias stress test on VCSEL arrays from several manufacturers. This test revealed no significant differences between the reliability of AlGaAs, oxide confined VCSEL arrays constructed with a trench oxide and mesa for isolation. This test did find that the reliability of arrays needs to be measured on arrays and not be estimated with the data from singulated VCSELs as is a common practice.

  6. Power electronics reliability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaplar, Robert James; Brock, Reinhard C.; Marinella, Matthew; King, Michael Patrick; Stanley, James K.; Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2010-10-01

    The project's goals are: (1) use experiments and modeling to investigate and characterize stress-related failure modes of post-silicon power electronic (PE) devices such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) switches; and (2) seek opportunities for condition monitoring (CM) and prognostics and health management (PHM) to further enhance the reliability of power electronics devices and equipment. CM - detect anomalies and diagnose problems that require maintenance. PHM - track damage growth, predict time to failure, and manage subsequent maintenance and operations in such a way to optimize overall system utility against cost. The benefits of CM/PHM are: (1) operate power conversion systems in ways that will preclude predicted failures; (2) reduce unscheduled downtime and thereby reduce costs; and (3) pioneering reliability in SiC and GaN.

  7. Internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and predictive validity for a Likert-based version of the Sources of occupational stress-14 (SOOS-14) scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimbrel, Nathan A; Flynn, Elisa J; Carpenter, Grace Stephanie J; Cammarata, Claire M; Leto, Frank; Ostiguy, William J; Kamholz, Barbara W; Zimering, Rose T; Gulliver, Suzy B

    2015-08-30

    This study examined the psychometric properties of a Likert-based version of the Sources of Occupational Stress-14 (SOOS-14) scale. Internal consistency for the SOOS-14 ranged from 0.78-0.84, whereas three-month test-retest reliability was 0.51. In addition, SOOS-14 scores were prospectively associated with symptoms of PTSD and depression at a three-month follow-up assessment. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  8. Study for the reliability and validity of Chinese version PRE-DELIRIC delirium prediction model%中文版 PRE-DELIRIC 谵妄预测模型的信度和效度研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李云; 贺婷; 吴文娟

    2015-01-01

    目的:分析中文版PRE‐DELIRIC谵妄预测模型在ICU患者中的信度和效度。方法选取306例ICU患者作为样本,使用PRE‐DELIRIC谵妄预测模型对其施测以行评价者间信度分析和预测效度分析。结果使用PRE‐DELIRIC谵妄预测模型时,评价者间的信度为0.94(P<0.01);预测效度结果表明,当PRE‐DELIRIC谵妄预测模型的阈值取42%时,灵敏度为0.848,特异度为0.946,ROC曲线下面积为0.936(95% CI:0.910~0.963)(P<0.001)说明工具具有较好的预测效度。结论 PRE‐DELIRIC的评价者间信度和预测效度较好,适合对ICU患者进行谵妄发生的预测。%Objective To analyze the reliability and validity of Chinese version of PRE‐DELIRIC delirium predic‐tion model for ICU patients .Method 306 patients in ICU was selected for the study .The reliability and predictive validity analysis and evaluation was conducted by using PRE‐DELIRIC delirium predictive models .Result Using the PRE‐DELIRIC delirium prediction model ,the inter‐rater reliability was 0 .94 (P<0 .01) .The predictive validity re‐sults show that when the threshold values of PRE‐DELIRIC delirium prediction model was 42% ,the sensitivity was 0 .848 ,the specificity was 0 .946 ,the area under the ROC curve was 0 .936(95% CI:0 .910~0 .963)(P<0 .001) .It's showed that the tool has good predictive validity .Conclusion The PRE‐DELIRIC between evaluators has good relia‐bility and predictive validity .It's suitable for predicted delirium occurred for ICU patients .

  9. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  10. 10 kV城市配电网可靠性基础参数预测方法分析%Prediction Method for Reliability Underlying Parameters of 10 kV City Distribution Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程鹏飞; 何江; 马岩

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces grey model prediction method and prediction model of nonlinear regression model prediction method and analyzes characteristics of these two prediction methods. Meanwhile,it also proposes to reasonably select pre-diction means for reliability basic parameters of various distribution networks according to characteristics of historical data. Taking fault rate and pre-arrangement power-cut rate of distribution network equipments in some region as examples,defi-nite utilization of various prediction methods was stated. Example prediction results indicated that in small sample size situa-tion and when historical data was comparatively smooth,grey model prediction method was in greater advantage while in in-accurate historical data situation,nonlinear regression model prediction method was more accurate.%介绍了灰色模型预测法和非线性回归模型预测法的预测模型,分析了这两种预测方法的特点,在此基础上提出应根据历史数据的特点合理选择各种配电网可靠性基础参数的预测手段。以某地区配电网设备的故障率和预安排停电率为算例,阐述了各种预测方法的具体运用。算例预测结果表明:在样本容量小的情况下,当历史数据较平滑时灰色模型预测法有较大的优势;在存在不准确历史数据的情况下,采用非线性回归模型预测法更加准确。

  11. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles – Improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Wolfgang Grötzinger

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs and poor homology of novel extremophile’s genomes pose significant challenges for the attribution of functions to the coding sequences identified. The anoxic deep-sea brine pools of the Red Sea are a promising source of novel enzymes with unique evolutionary adaptation. Sequencing data from Red Sea brine pool cultures and SAGs are annotated and stored in the INDIGO data warehouse. Low sequence homology of annotated genes (no similarity for 35% of these genes may translate into false positives when searching for specific functions. The Profile & Pattern Matching (PPM strategy described here was developed to eliminate false positive annotations of enzyme function before progressing to labor-intensive hyper-saline gene expression and characterization. It utilizes InterPro-derived Gene Ontology (GO-terms (which represent enzyme function profiles and annotated relevant PROSITE IDs (which are linked to an amino acid consensus pattern. The PPM algorithm was tested on 15 protein families, which were selected based on scientific and commercial potential. An initial list of 2,577 E.C. numbers was translated into 171 GO-terms and 49 consensus patterns. A subset of INDIGO-sequences consisting of 58 SAGs from six different taxons of bacteria and archaea were selected from 6 different brine pool environments. Those SAGs code for 74,516 genes, which were independently scanned for the GO-terms (profile filter and PROSITE IDs (pattern filter. Following stringent reliability filtering, the non-redundant hits (106 profile hits and 147 pattern hits are classified as reliable, if at least two relevant descriptors (GO-terms and/or consensus patterns are present. Scripts for annotation, as well as for the PPM algorithm, are available through the INDIGO website.

  12. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles-improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA).

    KAUST Repository

    Grötzinger, Stefan W.

    2014-04-07

    Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs) and poor homology of novel extremophile\\'s genomes pose significant challenges for the attribution of functions to the coding sequences identified. The anoxic deep-sea brine pools of the Red Sea are a promising source of novel enzymes with unique evolutionary adaptation. Sequencing data from Red Sea brine pool cultures and SAGs are annotated and stored in the Integrated Data Warehouse of Microbial Genomes (INDIGO) data warehouse. Low sequence homology of annotated genes (no similarity for 35% of these genes) may translate into false positives when searching for specific functions. The Profile and Pattern Matching (PPM) strategy described here was developed to eliminate false positive annotations of enzyme function before progressing to labor-intensive hyper-saline gene expression and characterization. It utilizes InterPro-derived Gene Ontology (GO)-terms (which represent enzyme function profiles) and annotated relevant PROSITE IDs (which are linked to an amino acid consensus pattern). The PPM algorithm was tested on 15 protein families, which were selected based on scientific and commercial potential. An initial list of 2577 enzyme commission (E.C.) numbers was translated into 171 GO-terms and 49 consensus patterns. A subset of INDIGO-sequences consisting of 58 SAGs from six different taxons of bacteria and archaea were selected from six different brine pool environments. Those SAGs code for 74,516 genes, which were independently scanned for the GO-terms (profile filter) and PROSITE IDs (pattern filter). Following stringent reliability filtering, the non-redundant hits (106 profile hits and 147 pattern hits) are classified as reliable, if at least two relevant descriptors (GO-terms and/or consensus patterns) are present. Scripts for annotation, as well as for the PPM algorithm, are available

  13. Mining a database of single amplified genomes from Red Sea brine pool extremophiles-improving reliability of gene function prediction using a profile and pattern matching algorithm (PPMA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grötzinger, Stefan W; Alam, Intikhab; Ba Alawi, Wail; Bajic, Vladimir B; Stingl, Ulrich; Eppinger, Jörg

    2014-01-01

    Reliable functional annotation of genomic data is the key-step in the discovery of novel enzymes. Intrinsic sequencing data quality problems of single amplified genomes (SAGs) and poor homology of novel extremophile's genomes pose significant challenges for the attribution of functions to the coding sequences identified. The anoxic deep-sea brine pools of the Red Sea are a promising source of novel enzymes with unique evolutionary adaptation. Sequencing data from Red Sea brine pool cultures and SAGs are annotated and stored in the Integrated Data Warehouse of Microbial Genomes (INDIGO) data warehouse. Low sequence homology of annotated genes (no similarity for 35% of these genes) may translate into false positives when searching for specific functions. The Profile and Pattern Matching (PPM) strategy described here was developed to eliminate false positive annotations of enzyme function before progressing to labor-intensive hyper-saline gene expression and characterization. It utilizes InterPro-derived Gene Ontology (GO)-terms (which represent enzyme function profiles) and annotated relevant PROSITE IDs (which are linked to an amino acid consensus pattern). The PPM algorithm was tested on 15 protein families, which were selected based on scientific and commercial potential. An initial list of 2577 enzyme commission (E.C.) numbers was translated into 171 GO-terms and 49 consensus patterns. A subset of INDIGO-sequences consisting of 58 SAGs from six different taxons of bacteria and archaea were selected from six different brine pool environments. Those SAGs code for 74,516 genes, which were independently scanned for the GO-terms (profile filter) and PROSITE IDs (pattern filter). Following stringent reliability filtering, the non-redundant hits (106 profile hits and 147 pattern hits) are classified as reliable, if at least two relevant descriptors (GO-terms and/or consensus patterns) are present. Scripts for annotation, as well as for the PPM algorithm, are available

  14. The Human Factor in System Reliability Is Human Performance Predictable? (les Facteurs humains et la fiabilite des systemes - Les performances humaines, sont-elles previsibles?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    successful in sharing and debating state of the art knowledge and assessment approaches that will collectively enhance the science of human reliability within...technologie de l’OTAN (RTO), comme précurseur au nouveau groupe de travail WG30, dont l’objectif est d’examiner et de développer le rôle de l...conséquent, d’établir une base de travail claire pour le nouveau groupe de travail. Onze communications, dont deux discours d’ouverture, ont été

  15. Evaluation of the reliability of preoperative descriptive airway assessment tests in prediction of the Cormack-Lehane score: A prospective randomized clinical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvi, Onur; Kahraman, Tugce; Senturk, Ozgur; Tulgar, Serkan; Serifsoy, Ercan; Ozer, Zeliha

    2017-02-01

    In this study we investigated and compared the predictive values of different airway assessments tests including thyromental height measurement test, which has been recently suggested, in difficult laryngoscopy (Cormack and Lehane [C-L] scores 3 and 4). In addition, we compared the effectiveness of methods and C-L scores, by IDS, in terms of predicting difficult intubation. Prospective, blinded study. Maltepe University. Four hundred fifty-one patients selected randomly who underwent general anesthesia. In this study we compared predictive value of thyromental height measurement test (TMH), which has been recently suggested, modified Mallampati test (MMT), upper lip bite test (ULBT), and thyromental distance measurement test (TMD) in difficult laryngoscopy. Final C-L scores were compared with intubation difficulty scale (IDS) in terms of predicting difficult intubation. Patient's American Society of Anesthesiology score, age and weight were recorded. TMH, TMD, MMT, ULBT, IDS and C-L scores were measured and determined. The optimal cut-off point for TMH for predicting difficult laryngoscopy was 43.5 mm and for TMD was 82.06 mm. Use of TMH <43.5 with MMT has the highest sensitivity for predicting difficult intubation (78.38) with 75.36% specificity and 97.50% negative predictive value. TMH showed sensitivity of 91.89% and specificity 52.17% at 50 mm cut-off value. In the comparison of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values, none of the tests came forth individually or in combination with MMT test. The present study demonstrates the practicality of TMH as a digitalized test however the clinical benefits of TMH in daily medical practice are drawn into question. The additional variable of race may have had some bearing on this and further studies, larger in patient sample size, may need to use different methodology concerning age-, sex-, and race-dependent variables in evaluating these tests. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Grid reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Saiz, P; Rocha, R; Andreeva, J

    2007-01-01

    We are offering a system to track the efficiency of different components of the GRID. We can study the performance of both the WMS and the data transfers At the moment, we have set different parts of the system for ALICE, ATLAS, CMS and LHCb. None of the components that we have developed are VO specific, therefore it would be very easy to deploy them for any other VO. Our main goal is basically to improve the reliability of the GRID. The main idea is to discover as soon as possible the different problems that have happened, and inform the responsible. Since we study the jobs and transfers issued by real users, we see the same problems that users see. As a matter of fact, we see even more problems than the end user does, since we are also interested in following up the errors that GRID components can overcome by themselves (like for instance, in case of a job failure, resubmitting the job to a different site). This kind of information is very useful to site and VO administrators. They can find out the efficien...

  17. Establishing validity and reliability of an instrument using the theory of planned behavior to predict middle school student obesity-related actions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickes, Melinda J; Sharma, Manoj

    Childhood obesity is of concern to many health professionals, parents, teachers, and school administrators because of the negative impact on the child's physical, psychological, and behavioral health. Lack of structured monitoring and evaluation has hindered the development of an evidence base to disseminate best practices in childhood obesity prevention. The purpose of this study was to develop a valid and reliable instrument which affirmed the constructs of the Theory of Planned Behavior in relation to nutrition and physical activity behaviors related to childhood obesity. A convenience sample of 242 students participated in the validation of the 129-item instrument, which was administered during class time, and read to students to increase response rate. Confirmatory factor analysis established instrument validity, with one factor present for each behavior, and factor loadings greater than 0.32. Reliability and test-retest coefficients achieved apriori criteria of 0.70. Truly learning how to gauge nutrition and physical activity levels in children and adolescents has proved to be difficult, yet it is imperative to understand the relationship of the proposed potentially modifiable behaviors and childhood obesity.

  18. Inter-operator Reliability of Magnetic Resonance Image-Based Computational Fluid Dynamics Prediction of Cerebrospinal Fluid Motion in the Cervical Spine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Bryn A; Yiallourou, Theresia I; Pahlavian, Soroush Heidari; Thyagaraj, Suraj; Bunck, Alexander C; Loth, Francis; Sheffer, Daniel B; Kröger, Jan Robert; Stergiopulos, Nikolaos

    2016-05-01

    For the first time, inter-operator dependence of MRI based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in the cervical spinal subarachnoid space (SSS) is evaluated. In vivo MRI flow measurements and anatomy MRI images were obtained at the cervico-medullary junction of a healthy subject and a Chiari I malformation patient. 3D anatomies of the SSS were reconstructed by manual segmentation by four independent operators for both cases. CFD results were compared at nine axial locations along the SSS in terms of hydrodynamic and geometric parameters. Intraclass correlation (ICC) assessed the inter-operator agreement for each parameter over the axial locations and coefficient of variance (CV) compared the percentage of variance for each parameter between the operators. Greater operator dependence was found for the patient (0.19 0.78). For the healthy subject, hydraulic diameter and Womersley number had the least variance (CV = ~2%). For the patient, peak diastolic velocity and Reynolds number had the smallest variance (CV = ~3%). These results show a high degree of inter-operator reliability for MRI-based CFD simulations of CSF flow in the cervical spine for healthy subjects and a lower degree of reliability for patients with Type I Chiari malformation.

  19. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  20. Applying reliability models to the maintenance of Space Shuttle software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneidewind, Norman F.

    1992-01-01

    Software reliability models provide the software manager with a powerful tool for predicting, controlling, and assessing the reliability of software during maintenance. We show how a reliability model can be effectively employed for reliability prediction and the development of maintenance strategies using the Space Shuttle Primary Avionics Software Subsystem as an example.

  1. An Acoustic Charge Transport Imager for High Definition Television Applications: Reliability Modeling and Parametric Yield Prediction of GaAs Multiple Quantum Well Avalanche Photodiodes. Degree awarded Oct. 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, W. D.; Brennan, K. F.; Summers, C. J.; Yun, Ilgu

    1994-01-01

    Reliability modeling and parametric yield prediction of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiodes (APDs), which are of interest as an ultra-low noise image capture mechanism for high definition systems, have been investigated. First, the effect of various doping methods on the reliability of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiode (APD) structures fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy is investigated. Reliability is examined by accelerated life tests by monitoring dark current and breakdown voltage. Median device lifetime and the activation energy of the degradation mechanism are computed for undoped, doped-barrier, and doped-well APD structures. Lifetimes for each device structure are examined via a statistically designed experiment. Analysis of variance shows that dark-current is affected primarily by device diameter, temperature and stressing time, and breakdown voltage depends on the diameter, stressing time and APD type. It is concluded that the undoped APD has the highest reliability, followed by the doped well and doped barrier devices, respectively. To determine the source of the degradation mechanism for each device structure, failure analysis using the electron-beam induced current method is performed. This analysis reveals some degree of device degradation caused by ionic impurities in the passivation layer, and energy-dispersive spectrometry subsequently verified the presence of ionic sodium as the primary contaminant. However, since all device structures are similarly passivated, sodium contamination alone does not account for the observed variation between the differently doped APDs. This effect is explained by the dopant migration during stressing, which is verified by free carrier concentration measurements using the capacitance-voltage technique.

  2. SOFTWARE RELIABILITY OF PROFICIENT ENACTMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.Anni Princy

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A software reliability exemplary projects snags the random process as disillusionments which were the culmination yield of two progressions: emerging faults and initial state values. The predominant classification uses the logistic analysis effort function mounting efficient software on the real time dataset. The detriments of the logistic testing were efficaciously overcome by Pareto distribution. The estimated outline ventures the resolved technique for analyzing the suitable communities and the preeminent of fit for a software reliability progress model. Its constraints are predictable to evaluate the reliability of a software system. The future process will permit for software reliability estimations that can be used both as prominence Indicator, but also for planning and controlling resources, the development times based on the onslaught assignments of the efficient computing and reliable measurement of a software system was competent.

  3. Reliability and validity of the personality inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5): predicting DSM-IV personality disorders and psychopathy in community-dwelling Italian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fossati, Andrea; Krueger, Robert F; Markon, Kristian E; Borroni, Serena; Maffei, Cesare

    2013-12-01

    In order to assess the internal consistency, factor structure, and ability to recover DSM-IV personality disorders (PDs) of the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5) scales, 710 Italian adult community dwelling volunteers were administered the Italian translation of the PID-5, as well as the Italian translation of the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4+ (PDQ-4+). Cronbach's alpha values were >.70 for all PID-5 facet scales and greater than .90 for all PID-5 domain scales. Parallel analysis and confirmatory factor analysis supported the theoretical five-factor model of the PID-5 trait scales. Regression analyses showed that both PID-5 trait and domain scales explained a substantial amount of variance in the PDQ-4+ PD scales, with the exception of the Passive-Aggressive PD scale. When the PID-5 was administered to a second independent sample of 389 Italian adult community dwelling volunteers, the basic psychometric properties of the scale were replicated. In this second sample, the PID-5 trait and domain scales proved to be significant predictors of psychopathy measures. As a whole, the results of the present study support the hypothesis that the PID-5 is a reliable instrument which is able to recover DSM-IV PDs, as well as to capture personality pathology that is not included in the DSM-IV (namely, psychopathy).

  4. Preliminary Study on reliability and validity of the Chinese Version of the Family Assessment Device%中文版家庭功能评定量表的信度效度初步研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王雪云; 李业平

    2016-01-01

    Objective To research the reliability and validity of Family Assessment Device(FAD)in the Chinese college students. Methods A sample of 312 Chinese college students were employed to finish the Chinese version of FAD. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient and split-half reliability were used to test the reliability of the scale. The content validity, construct validation and discriminant validity were used to test the validity of the scale. Result The Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the Chinese version of FAD was 0.860, the split-half reliability was 0.810 and the reliability of behavior control dimension was lower than other dimension. There were significant differences among the various dimension, there were significant differences between high and low groups. Conclusion The Family Assessment Device has high reliability, good content validity and construct validity.%目的:研究家庭功能评定量表(FAD)在中国大学生家庭中的信度和效度.方法:用中文版家庭功能评定量表对312位在校大学生进行施测,采用Cronbach's系数、分半信度对量表的信度进行检测,用内容效度、结构效度、区分效度对量表的效度进行检测.结果:中文版家庭功能评定量表的Cronbach's系数为0.860,分半信度为0.810,行为控制这一维度的信度偏低.各维度间的相关均有统计学意义,高分组与低分组间存在显著差异.结论:家庭功能评定量表具有较高的信度,较好的内容效度和结构效度.

  5. Frontiers of reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K

    1998-01-01

    This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

  6. Reliability studies of diagnostic methods in Indian traditional Ayurveda medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon

    2013-01-01

    as prakriti classification), method development (pulse diagnosis), quality assurance for diagnosis and treatment and in the conduct of clinical studies. Several reliability studies are conducted in western medicine. The investigation of the reliability of traditional Chinese, Japanese and Sasang medicine...... diagnoses is in the formative stage. However, reliability studies in Ayurveda are in the preliminary stage. In this paper, examples are provided to illustrate relevant concepts of reliability studies of diagnostic methods and their implication in practice, education, and training. An introduction...

  7. Sequential FDG-PET/CT reliably predicts response of locally advanced rectal cancer to neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Capirci, Carlo [Hospital, Division of Radiotherapy, Rovigo (Italy); Rampin, Lucia; Banti, Elena [Hospital, Nuclear Medicine and PET Service, Rovigo (Italy); Erba, Paola A.; Mariani, Giuliano [Regional Center of Nuclear Medicine, Univ. Pisa (Italy); Galeotti, Fabrizio [Hospital, Division of Surgery, Rovigo (Italy); Crepaldi, Giorgio [Hospital, Division of Oncology, Rovigo (Italy); Gava, Marcello [Hospital, Medical Physics Service, Rovigo (Italy); Fanti, Stefano [Politecnico Bologna (Italy). Dept. of Nuclear Medicine; Muzzio, Pier C. [Dept. of Radiology, Ist. Oncologico, Padova (Italy); Rubello, Domenico [Rovigo Hospital, Istituto Oncologico Veneto (IOV)-IRCCS, Nuclear Medicine Service, PET Unit, Rovigo (Italy)

    2007-10-15

    Prediction of rectal cancer response to preoperative, neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation therapy (CRT) provides the opportunity to identify patients in whom a major response is expected and who may therefore benefit from alternative surgical approaches. Traditional morphological imaging techniques are effective in defining tumour extension in the initial diagnostic and staging work-up, but perform poorly in distinguishing residual neoplastic tissue from scarring post CRT, when restaging the patient before surgery. Fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) is a promising tool for monitoring the effect of anti-tumour therapy. The aim of this study was to prospectively assess the value of sequential FDG-PET scans in predicting the response of locally advanced rectal cancer to neo-adjuvant CRT. Forty-four consecutive patients with locally advanced (cT3-4) primary rectal cancer and four patients with pelvic recurrence of rectal cancer were enrolled in this prospective study. Treatment consisted of external beam intensified radiotherapy, chemotherapy and, 8-10 weeks later, surgery with curative intent. All patients underwent FDG-PET/CT both before CRT and 5-6 weeks after completing CRT. One patient died before surgery because of acute myocardial infarction, and was therefore excluded from further analysis. Semi-quantitative measurements of FDG uptake (SUV{sub max}), absolute difference ({delta}SUV{sub max}) and percent SUV{sub max} difference (Response Index, RI) between pre- and post-CRT PET scans were considered. Results were correlated with pathological response, assessed both by histopathological staging of the surgical specimens (pTNM) and by the tumour regression grade (TRG) according to Mandard's criteria (patients with TRG1-2 being defined as responders and patients with TRG3-5 as non-responders). Following neo-adjuvant CRT, of the 45 patients submitted to surgery, 23 (51.1%) were classified as responders according to Mandard

  8. 负性行为问卷中文版信度、效度初步检验%A Preliminary reliability and validity study of the Chinese version of the Negative Acts Questionnaire revised

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    荀洪景; 刘化侠; 田芝丽

    2012-01-01

    目的:编译中文版《负性行为问卷》(the Negative Acts Questionnaire Revised,NAQ-R),并验证其信度和效度.方法:从挪威获得英文版负性行为问卷(NAQ-R),征得原作者同意后翻译成中文,请7位专家评定内容,并进行文化调试,形成中文版NAQ-R.选取符合条件的临床护士进行调查,检验问卷的信度和效度.结果:中文版NAQ-R由3个因子(个人相关负性行为、工作相关负性行为、组织不公)、23个条目构成,3个公因子的累计贡献率为54.369%.问卷总分的Cronbach's α系数为0.915,各条目重测相关系数为0.814 - 0.898 (P<0.001),总分的相关系数为0.883 (P<0.001).中文版NAQ-R的折半信度系数为0.898.结论:中文版NAQ-R具有良好的信度和效度,可作为研究工作场所欺负的测量工具.%Objective: To translate the Negative Acts Questionnaire Revised (NAQ-R) into Chinese and test the validity and reliability of the instrument. Methods: We translated the English version NAQ-R from Norway to Chinese with original author consent, using a panel of seven experts to test content validity and to do culture adjustment. The reliability and validity of Chinese version NAQ-R was tested on a sample of 242 clinical nurses in China. Results: Factor analysis supported the Chinese version NAQ-R being composed of 23 items and three subscales (person-related negative act, work-related negative act, and organizational injustice) with an explained variance of 54.369%. The Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient of the NAQ-R was 0.915. Test-retest reliability was 0.883 for the total scale and 0.814-0.898 for each item. Split-half reliability was 0.898. Conclusion:The Chinese version NAQ-R can be considered reliable and valid scale for assessing the bullying at work.

  9. Delta-Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Eugster, P.; Guerraoui, R.; Kouznetsov, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a new, non-binary measure of the reliability of broadcast algorithms, called Delta-Reliability. This measure quantifies the reliability of practical broadcast algorithms that, on the one hand, were devised with some form of reliability in mind, but, on the other hand, are not considered reliable according to the ``traditional'' notion of broadcast reliability [HT94]. Our specification of Delta-Reliability suggests a further step towards bridging the gap between theory and...

  10. Toward Reliable Prediction of Hyperfine Coupling Constants Using Ab Initio Density Matrix Renormalization Group Method: Diatomic (2)Σ and Vinyl Radicals as Test Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Tran Nguyen; Kurashige, Yuki; Yanai, Takeshi

    2014-05-13

    The density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) method is used in conjunction with the complete active space (CAS) procedure, the CAS configuration interaction (CASCI), and the CAS self-consistent field (CASSCF) to evaluate hyperfine coupling constants (HFCCs) for a series of diatomic (2)Σ radicals (BO, CO(+), CN, and AlO) and vinyl (C2H3) radical. The electron correlation effects on the computed HFCC values were systematically investigated using various levels of active space, which were increasingly extended from single valence space to large-size model space entailing double valence and at least single polarization shells. In addition, the core correlation was treated by including the core orbitals in active space. Reasonably accurate results were obtained by the DMRG-CASSCF method involving orbital optimization, while DMRG-CASCI calculations with Hartree-Fock orbitals provided poor agreement of the HFCCs with the experimental values. To achieve further insights into the accuracy of HFCC calculations, the orbital contributions to the total spin density were analyzed at a given nucleus, which is directly related to the FC term and is numerically sensitive to the level of correlation treatment and basis sets. The convergence of calculated HFCCs with an increasing number of renormalized states was also assessed. This work serves as the first study on the performance of the ab initio DMRG method for HFCC prediction.

  11. Relationships between in vivo and in vitro aflatoxin production: reliable prediction of fungal ability to contaminate maize with aflatoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Probst, Claudia; Cotty, Peter J

    2012-04-01

    Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins frequently produced by Aspergillus flavus. Contamination of maize with aflatoxins imposes both economic and health burdens in many regions. Identification of the most important etiologic agents of contamination is complicated by mixed infections and varying aflatoxin-producing potential of fungal species and individuals. In order to know the potential importance of an isolate to cause a contamination event, the ability of the isolate to produce aflatoxins on the living host must be determined. Aflatoxin production in vitro (synthetic and natural media) was contrasted with in vivo (viable maize kernels) in order to determine ability of in vitro techniques to predict the relative importance of causal agents to maize contamination events. Several media types and fermentation techniques (aerated, non-aerated, fermentation volume) were compared. There was no correlation between aflatoxin production in viable maize and production in any of the tested liquid fermentation media using any of the fermentation techniques. Isolates that produced aflatoxins on viable maize frequently failed to produce detectable (limit of detection=1ppb) aflatoxin concentrations in synthetic media. Aflatoxin production on autoclaved maize kernels was highly correlated with production on viable maize kernels. The results have important implications for researchers seeking to either identify causal agents of contamination events or characterize atoxigenic isolates for biological control. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Reliability computation from reliability block diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelson, P. O.; Eckstein, E. Y.

    1975-01-01

    Computer program computes system reliability for very general class of reliability block diagrams. Four factors are considered in calculating probability of system success: active block redundancy, standby block redundancy, partial redundancy, and presence of equivalent blocks in the diagram.

  13. Predictive analysis on the electric energy distribution systems reliability: applying the synerGEE system; Analisis predictivo de la confiabilidad en los sistemas de distribucion de energia electrica: aplicando el sistema synerGEE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Andrade, Carlos

    2008-12-15

    Electrical distribution systems ought to deliver electric power as economical as possible with an acceptable degree of service quality and continuity. Nevertheless, their faults represent one of the main causes of customer's unavailability. At the moment, a wide range of determinist criteria in the improvement of systems reliability based on past behavior are used, but they do not respond to the stochastic nature of system behavior, and are applied without an adequate balance between reliability and economy. In order to obtain this balance a minimum cost planning methodology that considers the predictive analysis of different investment alternatives in addition to the past behavior of the system is required, which guarantees that the economic resource available and limited will be used to gather the greater possible reliability degree. In this work this problem is approached with the fundamentals and methodologies needed to assess the design effects and operative criteria over the main reliability indexes used by the main utilities around the world, with emphasis on the need to optimize economical resources. The use of the system SynerGEETM, is investigated, probing it as a useful tool for the predictive reliability analysis. Due to the lack of experience that exists in Mexico with this type of analysis, distribution engineers has to become familiar with the concepts of the reliability engineering, their application to establish distribution systems models, and acquiring the ability to use the modern simulation tools, allowing them to evaluate the behavior of these systems with enough analytical rigor. In this sense a serial of well known study cases are presented to help them in this labor. [Spanish] Los sistemas de distribucion de energia electrica deben satisfacer la demanda de energia electrica de la forma mas economica posible, con un grado de calidad y continuidad aceptable. Sin embargo, sus fallas son una de las principales causas de indisponibilidad en

  14. Research of reliability prediction and modeling for traction power supply syste m%牵引供电系统可靠性预测及建模方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵峰; 张庆平; 王思华

    2015-01-01

    Byusing unbiased GM(1,1)model to predict the long -term failure data of its associated equipment, and increasing the sample of the required data for modeling.To solve the reliability of traction power supply sys-tem modeling with less failure data,which leads to the possibility of modeling accuracy is low and modeling of failure is high.In this paper,by using a fitting method based on particle swarm optimization(PSO),a reliability modeling method of traction power supply system based on Weibull distribution model was proposed,and the reli-ability models of all components of traction power supply system were established,it is made sure of that the fit-ting precision of fault data is bigger improved.The fault tree analysis(FTA)model of traction substation and cat-enary system were established by minimal cut sets,based on these,the reliability model of traction power supply system is finished,then reliability and the average useful time of system are calculated,Finally,the main factors affecting traction power supply system reliability was calculated by establishing the gray relational analysis model. The results indicate that the reliability of the system depends on contract line in a large extent.%基于采用无偏 GM(1,1)模型预测其相关设备中长期的故障数据,增大了建模所需的数据样本量,能解决牵引供电系统可靠性建模由于故障数据较少,导致建模的精度不高且建模失败的可能性大的问题,提出基于粒子群算法的智能拟合方法。以威布尔分布模型为基础,建立牵引供电系统各关键设备可靠性分析的数学模型。计算得到用最小割集表示的牵引变电所和接触网故障树模型,综合分析得出牵引供电系统整体的可靠性模型,并计算系统整体的可靠度和平均使用寿命,通过建立灰色关联分析模型,计算得出接触线是影响牵引供电系统整体可靠性的关键设备。

  15. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, D.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  16. VLSI Reliability in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij, Jan F.

    1993-01-01

    Several issue's regarding VLSI reliability research in Europe are discussed. Organizations involved in stimulating the activities on reliability by exchanging information or supporting research programs are described. Within one such program, ESPRIT, a technical interest group on IC reliability was

  17. Validity and reliability of Chinese version of mood disorders insight scale:a Preliminary study%中文版心境障碍自知力量表信效度初步研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    单建敏; 姜德国; 林崇光; 叶敏捷; 朱盛; 陈策; 胡立荣

    2014-01-01

    Objective:To evaluate the validity and reliability of the Chinese version of mood disorders in_sight scale( MDIS)• Method:One hundred and thirty_one patients with mood disorders( dignositic and statis_tical manual of mental disorders,fourth edition)were administered with the Chinese version of MDIS•The dis_ease severity and insight of mood disorders were assessed with clinical global impression scale( CGI)and a cli_nician_rated insight visual analogue scale•Family members of patients were also required to assess the insight of patients with a kin_rated insight visual analogue scale•Fifty patients were randomly selected and re_assessed with MDIS one week later• Cronbach’s α coefficient and Pearson correlation coefficient between two assessment scores were calculated to evaluate the internal consistency and one_week re_test reliability of MDIS•Factor ana_lyses were used to examine the construct validity•Criteria_related validity was assessed through correlation analy_sis between patients’MDIS and clinician_rated and kin_rated insight visual analogue scale scores•The empirical validity was examined through comparisons between MDIS scores of patients with mild_to_moderate and severe disease• Results:①Reliability:Cronbach ’s α and one_week re_test reliability coefficients were 0•81 and 0•82,respectively;②Validity:exploratory factor analysis indicated that MDIS had a 2 factor structure,account_ing for 65•75% of the total variance•Indicators for the goodness of the two factor structure in confirmatory factor analysis were:goodness_of_fit index:0•900,normed fit index:0•931,and root mean square error of approxima_tion:0•064;③Correlation coefficients between patients’MDIS and clinician_rated and kin_rated visual analogue scale scores were 0•74( P<0•05 )and 0•59( P<0•05 ),respectively•Correlation coefficient between MDIS and CGI was —0•87(P<0•05)•Significant differences in MDIS scores were detected between mild

  18. 船用板式换热器可靠寿命预计方法研究%Study on the Technology of Reliable Life Prediction of Ship Plate Heat Exchanger

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘隆波; 王首臻

    2016-01-01

    Objective For the reliable life prediction of a new- type plate heat exchanger of ship, this paper presented a prediction method of product reliability using similar product information, taking into account the quantitative information obtained during use of similar products. Methods The similarity ratio was given by the experts based on their experience, and then the reliability of similar products was directly converted using inheritance factor. The performance data of the plate heat exchanger and similar products were comparatively analyzed, and the conversion coefficient between the two products was calculated using the concept of fuzzy closeness. Results In combination with the actual using data of similar products, through the comparison of heat transfer coefficient, velocity change and other factors, the similar product conversion coefficient was finally determined to be 0.286. The experimental time of the plate heat exchanger after conversion was further determined, and the reliability of this product was roughly estimated using the trouble-free truncated life evaluation method. Conclusion This method offered a new method for life estimation using similar products, and optimized the expert assessment in part on the similarity of the subjective factor from the view of product performance features.%目的:对于新型船用板式换热器进行可靠寿命预计,考虑到相似产品使用期间会获得定量的信息,提出一种利用相似产品信息进行产品可靠性预计的方法。方法相似产品的相似度由专家根据经验分析给出,其后根据继承因子直接对相似产品的可靠度进行折合。对板式换热器与相似产品的性能数据进行对比分析,利用模糊数学中贴近度的概念,计算得到两产品之间的折算系数。结果结合相似产品的实际使用数据,通过对流速、换热系数和其他相似因素的比较,得到产品对于相似产品的折算系数为0.286,从而

  19. Application of neural networks for the prediction of energy use in supermarket buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, T.J.; Tassou, S.A.; Datta, D. [Brunel Univ., Uxbridge (United Kingdom); Marriott, D. [Safeway Stores 6 Millington, Middx (United Kingdom)

    1996-12-31

    This paper discusses the application of neural networks to predict energy consumption in commercial buildings. To date, many researchers have demonstrated that neural networks can be more reliable energy predictors than the traditional statistical approaches and can also form the basis for predictive controllers of HVAC equipment. This paper shows the preliminary results of research work at Brunel University for predicting the variation of electricity consumption in a supermarket building based on a neural network. A comparison of the prediction performance of the neural network and a traditional regression approach is presented.

  20. Reliability Generalization: "Lapsus Linguae"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Julie M.

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the proposed Reliability Generalization (RG) method for studying reliability. RG employs the application of meta-analytic techniques similar to those used in validity generalization studies to examine reliability coefficients. This study explains why RG does not provide a proper research method for the study of reliability,…

  1. PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

  2. Study and Preliminary Verification of the Reliability and Validity about Chinese Value Conflict Inventory%《价值观念冲突问卷》的编制及信度和效度检验

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贾树华; 高岩; 姜潮; 杨丽珠

    2013-01-01

    为评估不同受教育程度和文化水平的个体是否存在中国传统价值观念冲突的压力,编制价值观念冲突问卷,用以筛查价值观念冲突的压力对个体自杀行为的影响.通过对240例农村青年自杀死亡者及正常对照者的心理解剖访谈研究,验证此问卷具有较好的信度和效度,可用于甄别高应激群体价值观念冲突的压力,是自杀研究和干预的实用筛查工具.%To draw up the Chinese Value Conflict Inventory (CVCI),which is used to measure the psychological strains of different sample groups,to test the unique cultural driving force of the impact and role to the suicide behaviors.There was significant difference among the three groups of the two hundred and forty rural youth completed suicides and its controls in the scores of CVCI for psychological autopsy and self-assessment.The results indicated CVCI was a better predictor and had good reliability and validity.CVCI is a useful instrument to screen the values conflicting strains of high stressful population,especially in the suicide research and intervention.

  3. 涡轮盘持久及低周疲劳寿命可靠性评估%Reliability prediction on creep rupture and LCF life for a turbine disk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    牟园伟; 陆山

    2015-01-01

    为评估涡轮盘持久及低周疲劳寿命可靠性,考虑涡轮盘材料及载荷的分散性,采用响应面法与蒙特卡洛法相结合的方法,建立涡轮盘持久寿命可靠性分析模型。对给定中间以上状态工作时间400 h的涡轮盘进行持久寿命可靠度计算,并考察应力松弛效应对涡轮盘持久寿命的影响。在持久寿命可靠性分析的基础上,根据Miner线性累积损伤理论,对考虑蠕变损伤的涡轮盘低周疲劳寿命进行可靠性评估。结果表明,该涡轮盘满足400 h持久寿命、寿命安全系数1.5,及1500周低周疲劳寿命、寿命安全系数2.0的使用要求。%To predict the creep rupture and LCF life reliability of a turbine disk, considering the scatter of turbine disk material parameters and load parameters, using the response surface fitting and Monte-Carlo simulation technology, a creep rupture reliability life analysis model was constructed. The creep rupture probabilistic life of a turbine disk working 400 h was calculated. The influence of stress relaxation on the creep rupture probabilistic life was also analyzed. Based on the evaluated creep rupture reliability life and Miner linear cumulative damage theory, the creep/LCF probabilistic life was finally assessed. It turned out that the turbine disk met the design requirements of creep rupture life 400 h, safety factor 1.5 and LCF life 1 500 cycles, safety factor 2.0.

  4. Quantification of left coronary bifurcation angles and plaques by coronary computed tomography angiography for prediction of significant coronary stenosis: A preliminary study with dual-source CT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Yue; Zeng, Wenjuan; Yu, Jie; Lu, Jing; Hu, Yuannan; Diao, Nan; Liang, Bo; Han, Ping; Shi, Heshui

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the diagnostic performance of left coronary bifurcation angles and plaque characteristics for prediction of coronary stenosis by dual-source CT. Methods 106 patients suspected of coronary artery disease undergoing both coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and invasive coronary angiography (CAG) within three months were included. Left coronary bifurcation angles including the angles between the left anterior descending artery and left circumflex artery (LAD-LCx), left main coronary artery and left anterior descending artery (LM-LAD), left main coronary artery and left circumflex artery (LM-LCx) were measured on CT images. CCTA plaque parameters were calculated by plaque analysis software. Coronary stenosis ≥ 50% by CAG was defined as significant. Results 106 patients with 318 left coronary bifurcation angles and 126 vessels were analyzed. The bifurcation angle of LAD-LCx was significantly larger in left coronary stenosis ≥ 50% than stenosis coronary stenosis (OR = 1.423, P = 0.002). In ROC curve analysis, LAD-LCx predicted significant left coronary stenosis with a sensitivity of 66.7%, specificity of 78.4%, positive predictive value of 85.2% and negative predictive value of 55.8%. The lipid plaque volume improved the diagnostic performance of CCTA diameter stenosis (AUC: 0.854 vs. 0.900, P = 0.045) in significant coronary stenosis. Conclusions The bifurcation angle of LAD-LCx could predict significant left coronary stenosis. Wider LAD-LCx is related to non-calcified lesions. Lipid plaque volume could improve the diagnostic performance of CCTA for coronary stenosis prediction. PMID:28346530

  5. Reliability Characteristics of Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbynek Martinek

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the phenomenon of reliability of power plants. It gives an explanation of the terms connected with this topic as their proper understanding is important for understanding the relations and equations which model the possible real situations. The reliability phenomenon is analysed using both the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution. The results of our analysis are specific equations giving information about the characteristics of the power plants, the mean time of operations and the probability of failure-free operation. Equations solved for the Weibull distribution respect the failures as well as the actual operating hours. Thanks to our results, we are able to create a model of dynamic reliability for prediction of future states. It can be useful for improving the current situation of the unit as well as for creating the optimal plan of maintenance and thus have an impact on the overall economics of the operation of these power plants.

  6. New Approaches to Reliability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    of energy. New approaches for reliability assessment are being taken in the design phase of power electronics systems based on the physics-of-failure in components. In this approach, many new methods, such as multidisciplinary simulation tools, strength testing of components, translation of mission profiles......Power electronics are facing continuous pressure to be cheaper and smaller, have a higher power density, and, in some cases, also operate at higher temperatures. At the same time, power electronics products are expected to have reduced failures because it is essential for reducing the cost......, and statistical analysis, are involved to enable better prediction and design of reliability for products. This article gives an overview of the new design flow in the reliability engineering of power electronics from the system-level point of view and discusses some of the emerging needs for the technology...

  7. DynaMIT2.0: architecture design and preliminary results on real-time data fusion for traffic prediction and crisis management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Yang; Pereira, Francisco Camara; Seshadri, Ravi

    2015-01-01

    . Paradoxically, it is in the latter case that such tools can make the difference. Therefore, the dynamic traffic assignment and simulation based prediction system such as DynaMIT (1) demonstrates high effectiveness in the context of sudden network disturbance or demand pattern changes. This paper presents...

  8. PRO-KIN平衡仪对老年人跌倒预测的效度和信度研究%Validity and Reliability of PRO-KIN Blance Instrument for Prediction of Falls in Old People

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐华平; 全莉娟; 邱智; 王珺; 金国强; 冯珍

    2012-01-01

    目的 检验PRO-KIN平衡仪对预测老年人跌倒的效度、信度和敏感度,为其临床应用提供客观依据.方法 选择符合试验条件的老年人分为有跌倒史(病例组)和无跌倒史(对照组)各30例参加本研究,每位受试者在1周内各进行2次PRO-KIN平衡仪和Berg平衡量表测试,对PRO-KIN平衡仪和Berg平衡量表测试结果采用Pearson相关分析来检验PRO-KIN平衡仪的效度;采用等级间相关系数(intraclass correlation coefficient,ICC)检验PRO-KIN平衡仪的信度;对病例组和对照组PRO-KIN平衡仪测试结果采用独立样本t检验来检验PRO-KIN平衡仪的敏感度.结果 PRO-KIN平衡仪与Berg平衡量表的各个指标均呈中度负相关且具有统计学意义(r=-0.512~-0.677,均P<0.01);PRO-KIN平衡仪的组内信度ICC为0.89~0.98且95%可信区间集中;病例组2次PRO-KIN平衡仪测试结果与对照组比较,差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.01).结论 PRO-KIN平衡仪对老年人跌倒的预测具有较高的效度、信度和敏感度.%Objective To explore the validity,reliability and sensitivity of PRO-KIN balance in-strument in predicting falls in old people,and to provide an objective basis for its clinical applica-tion. Methods Sixty subjects matching admitting conditions were equally divided into research group (the elderly with falling history) and control group (the elderly without falling history). All subjects received PRO-KIN balance instrument test and Berg Balance Scale test twice per week,and the results were analyzed by Pearson correlation analysis rank correlation coefficient (intraclass correlation coefficient, ICC) to test the validity and reliability of PRO-KIN balance in-strument, respectively. Independent samples f-test was used to test the sensitivity of PRO-KIN balance instrument. Results Indicators of PRO-KIN balance instrument showed a moderate nega-tive correlation with those of Berg Balance Scale (r=-0. 512-0. 677, P<0. 01). The ICC of PRO

  9. The Accelerator Reliability Forum

    CERN Document Server

    Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R

    2014-01-01

    A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.

  10. Enlightenment on Computer Network Reliability From Transportation Network Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Hu Wenjun; Zhou Xizhao

    2011-01-01

    Referring to transportation network reliability problem, five new computer network reliability definitions are proposed and discussed. They are computer network connectivity reliability, computer network time reliability, computer network capacity reliability, computer network behavior reliability and computer network potential reliability. Finally strategies are suggested to enhance network reliability.

  11. Predicting Risk for Suicide: A Preliminary Examination of Non-Suicidal Self-Injury and the Acquired Capability Construct in a College Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brackman, Emily H; Morris, Blair W; Andover, Margaret S

    2016-01-01

    The interpersonal psychological theory of suicide provides a useful framework for considering the relationship between non-suicidal self-injury and suicide. Researchers propose that NSSI increases acquired capability for suicide. We predicted that both NSSI frequency and the IPTS acquired capability construct (decreased fear of death and increased pain tolerance) would separately interact with suicidal ideation to predict suicide attempts. Undergraduate students (N = 113) completed self-report questionnaires, and a subsample (n = 66) also completed a pain sensitivity task. NSSI frequency significantly moderated the association between suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. However, in a separate model, acquired capability did not moderate this relationship. Our understanding of the relationship between suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior can be enhanced by factors associated with NSSI that are distinct from the acquired capability construct.

  12. Macromodel for assessing residential concentrations of combustion-generated pollutants: Model development and preliminary predictions for CO, NO/sub 2/, and respirable suspended particles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Traynor, G.W.; Aceti, J.C.; Apte, M.G.; Smith, B.V.; Green, L.L.; Smith-Reiser, A.; Novak, K.M.; Moses, D.O.

    1989-01-01

    A simulation model (also called a ''macromodel'') has been developed to predict residential air pollutant concentration distributions for specified populations. The model inputs include the market penetration of pollution sources, pollution source characteristics (e.g., emission rates, source usage rates), building characteristics (e.g., house volume, air exchange rates), and meteorological parameters (e.g., outside temperature). Four geographically distinct regions of the US have been modeled using Monte Carlo and deterministic simulation techniques. Single-source simulations were also conducted. The highest predicted CO and NO/sub 2/ residential concentrations were associated with the winter-time use of unvented gas and kerosene space heaters. The highest predicted respirable suspended particulate concentrations were associated with indoor cigarette smoking and the winter-time use of non-airtight wood stoves, radiant kerosene heaters, convective unvented gas space heaters, and oil forced-air furnaces. Future field studies in this area should (1) fill information gaps identified in this report, and (2) collect information on the macromodel input parameters to properly interpret the results. It is almost more important to measure the parameters that affect indoor concentration than it is to measure the concentrations themselves.

  13. Human Reliability Program Overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bodin, Michael

    2012-09-25

    This presentation covers the high points of the Human Reliability Program, including certification/decertification, critical positions, due process, organizational structure, program components, personnel security, an overview of the US DOE reliability program, retirees and academia, and security program integration.

  14. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  15. Software Reliability Cases: The Bridge Between Hardware, Software and System Safety and Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrmann, D.S.; Peercy, D.E.

    1999-01-08

    High integrity/high consequence systems must be safe and reliable; hence it is only logical that both software safety and software reliability cases should be developed. Risk assessments in safety cases evaluate the severity of the consequences of a hazard and the likelihood of it occurring. The likelihood is directly related to system and software reliability predictions. Software reliability cases, as promoted by SAE JA 1002 and 1003, provide a practical approach to bridge the gap between hardware reliability, software reliability, and system safety and reliability by using a common methodology and information structure. They also facilitate early insight into whether or not a project is on track for meeting stated safety and reliability goals, while facilitating an informed assessment by regulatory and/or contractual authorities.

  16. Reliable Design Versus Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth A.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation focuses on reliability and trust for the users portion of the FPGA design flow. It is assumed that the manufacturer prior to hand-off to the user tests FPGA internal components. The objective is to present the challenges of creating reliable and trusted designs. The following will be addressed: What makes a design vulnerable to functional flaws (reliability) or attackers (trust)? What are the challenges for verifying a reliable design versus a trusted design?

  17. Viking Lander reliability program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilny, M. J.

    1978-01-01

    The Viking Lander reliability program is reviewed with attention given to the development of the reliability program requirements, reliability program management, documents evaluation, failure modes evaluation, production variation control, failure reporting and correction, and the parts program. Lander hardware failures which have occurred during the mission are listed.

  18. A Preliminary Jupiter Model

    CERN Document Server

    Hubbard, W B

    2016-01-01

    In anticipation of new observational results for Jupiter's axial moment of inertia and gravitational zonal harmonic coefficients from the forthcoming Juno orbiter, we present a number of preliminary Jupiter interior models. We combine results from ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen-helium mixtures, including immiscibility calculations, with a new nonperturbative calculation of Jupiter's zonal harmonic coefficients, to derive a self-consistent model for the planet's external gravity and moment of inertia. We assume helium rain modified the interior temperature and composition profiles. Our calculation predicts zonal harmonic values to which measurements can be compared. Although some models fit the observed (pre-Juno) second- and fourth-order zonal harmonics to within their error bars, our preferred reference model predicts a fourth-order zonal harmonic whose absolute value lies above the pre-Juno error bars. This model has a dense core of about 12 Earth masses, and a hydrogen-helium-rich envelope with...

  19. A Preliminary Jupiter Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, W. B.; Militzer, B.

    2016-03-01

    In anticipation of new observational results for Jupiter's axial moment of inertia and gravitational zonal harmonic coefficients from the forthcoming Juno orbiter, we present a number of preliminary Jupiter interior models. We combine results from ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen-helium mixtures, including immiscibility calculations, with a new nonperturbative calculation of Jupiter's zonal harmonic coefficients, to derive a self-consistent model for the planet's external gravity and moment of inertia. We assume helium rain modified the interior temperature and composition profiles. Our calculation predicts zonal harmonic values to which measurements can be compared. Although some models fit the observed (pre-Juno) second- and fourth-order zonal harmonics to within their error bars, our preferred reference model predicts a fourth-order zonal harmonic whose absolute value lies above the pre-Juno error bars. This model has a dense core of about 12 Earth masses and a hydrogen-helium-rich envelope with approximately three times solar metallicity.

  20. The value of gadoxetate disodium-enhanced MR imaging for predicting posthepatectomy liver failure after major hepatic resection: A preliminary study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Seung Hyun, E-mail: shcho2405@gmail.com [Department of Radiology, Daegu Fatima Hospital, 576-31 Sinam-dong, Dong-gu, Daegu 701-600 (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ung Rae, E-mail: tadtail@hanmail.net [Department of Radiology, Catholic University of Daegu, School of Medicine, 3056-6 Daemyung-4-dong, Nam-gu, Daegu 705-718 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Joo Dong, E-mail: milledr@naver.com [Department of Surgery, Catholic University of Daegu, School of Medicine, 3056-6 Daemyung-4-dong, Nam-gu, Daegu 705-718 (Korea, Republic of); Han, Young Seok, E-mail: gshyskhk@hanmail.net [Department of Surgery, Catholic University of Daegu, School of Medicine, 3056-6 Daemyung-4-dong, Nam-gu, Daegu 705-718 (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Dong Lak, E-mail: dnchoi@cu.ac.kr [Department of Surgery, Catholic University of Daegu, School of Medicine, 3056-6 Daemyung-4-dong, Nam-gu, Daegu 705-718 (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To investigate whether preoperative gadoxetate-disodium-enhanced MR imaging predicts posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in patients who underwent major hepatic resection. Materials and methods: Twenty nine patients who underwent preoperative gadoxetate-disodium-enhanced MR imaging and following major hepatic resection were enrolled. Hepatic parenchymal signal intensity (SI) on pre-contrast T1-weighted imaging and 20 min hepatocyte phase was measured at each of the four liver segments by two observers using region of interest measurements. The mean value was calculated and used at each phase. The relative contrast enhancement index (RCEI) was calculated: (20 min hepatocyte phase SI - pre-contrast SI)/pre-contrast SI. PHLF was determined by the International Study Group of Liver Surgery 2011 guidelines. Correlation analysis was performed between preoperative liver function test and RCEI. Diagnostic accuracy of RCEI for predicting PHLF was calculated with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The reproducibility of the RCEI measurement was evaluated. Results: There was a significant correlation between preoperative albumin (r = 0.496, P = 0.006), T-bilirubin (r = -0.383, P = 0.041), and RCEI. Seven patients (24%) experienced PHLF, and one of these patients (3%) died. The diagnostic accuracy of RCEI was 0.838 (sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 77.3%, cut-off value: 0.7508, 95% confidence interval: 0.654, 0.947). The 95% limits of agreement and ICC between repeated RCEI measurements were 18.4% of the mean and 0.94, respectively, and between RCEI measurements by the two observers were 21.7% and 0.929, respectively. Conclusion: Our results show that preoperative gadoxetate-disodium-enhanced MR imaging can predict PHLF in patients who underwent major hepatic resection.

  1. Preliminary assessment of dynamic contrast-enhanced CT implementation in pretreatment FDG-PET/CT for outcome prediction in head and neck tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramyuk, Andrij; Wolf, Gunter; Shakirin, Georgy; Haberland, Ulrike; Tokalov, Sergey; Koch, Arne; Appold, Steffen; Zöphel, Klaus; Abolmaali, Nasreddin

    2010-09-01

    Recently published data show some controversy concerning the impact of [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) in predicting head and neck tumors (HNT) outcome. Assessment of tumor blood supply parameters using dynamic contrast-enhanced CT (DCE-CT) may deliver additional information concerning this important question. To evaluate the contribution of DCE-CT implemented in pretherapeutic FDG-PET/CT protocol for prognosis prediction in patients with HNT. Ten consecutive patients (median age 50 years, range 47-74 years) with histologically proven HNT underwent FDG-PET/CT with DCE-CT before treatment. FDG uptake was measured by maximum standardized uptake value (SUV(max)). Relative tumor blood volume (rTBV) was determined from DCE-CT using Patlak analysis. Intratumoral heterogeneity was assessed by means of lacunarity analysis. Obtained values were compared with time-to-progression and overall survival. PET and DCE-CT images were compared on a pixel-by-pixel basis using Pearson coefficient of correlation. Three patients with lower FDG uptake (SUV(max): 8+/-1) and five patients with higher FDG uptake (SUV(max): 15+/-4, P=0.004) were free of local recurrence for 24 months. Two groups of patients with significantly differing lower (group A: 0.37+/-0.02, n=6) and higher (group B: 0.52+/-0.01, n=4; Placunarity) were identified. Corresponding mean rTBV was higher in group A (9.6+/-1.8 ml/100 ml) than in group B (6.2+/-0.6 ml/100 ml). All six patients with homogeneous tumor blood supply (lower lacunarity) and higher rTBV were free of local recurrence during 24 months, while two of four patients with heterogeneous tumor blood supply (higher lacunarity) and lower rTBV died during follow-up due to tumor relapse. A weak correlation between FDG-PET and DCE-CT rTBV was observed (R(2)=0.1). FDG-PET/CT and DCT-CT are complementary methods for surveillance assessment in patients with HNT. Implementation of DCE-CT in the pretreatment FDG

  2. Preliminary assessment of dynamic contrast-enhanced CT implementation in pretreatment FDG-PET/CT for outcome prediction in head and neck tumors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abramyuk, Andrij; Wolf, Gunter; Tokalov, Sergey; Koch, Arne; Abolmaali, Nasreddin (OncoRay - Molecular and Biological Imaging, Medical Faculty Carl Gustav Carus, Dresden Univ. of Technology, Dresden (Germany)), e-mail: Andrij.Abramyuk@OncoRay.de; Shakirin, Georgy (Forschungszentrum Dresden Rossendorf, Inst. of Radiation Physics, Dresden (Germany)); Haberland, Ulrike (Siemens Healthcare Sector Computed Tomography, Forchheim (Germany)); Appold, Steffen (Clinic and Policlinic for Radiotherapy and Radiation Oncology, Univ. Clinics Carl Gustav Carus, Dresden Univ. of Technology, Dresden (Germany)); Zoephel, Klaus (Clinic and Policlinic for Nuclear Medicine, Univ. Clinics Carl Gustav Carus, Dresden Univ. of Technology, Dresden (Germany))

    2010-09-15

    Background: Recently published data show some controversy concerning the impact of [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) in predicting head and neck tumors (HNT) outcome. Assessment of tumor blood supply parameters using dynamic contrast-enhanced CT (DCE-CT) may deliver additional information concerning this important question. Purpose: To evaluate the contribution of DCE-CT implemented in pretherapeutic FDG-PET/CT protocol for prognosis prediction in patients with HNT. Material and Methods: Ten consecutive patients (median age 50 years, range 47-74 years) with histologically proven HNT underwent FDG-PET/CT with DCE-CT before treatment. FDG uptake was measured by maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax). Relative tumor blood volume (rTBV) was determined from DCE-CT using Patlak analysis. Intratumoral heterogeneity was assessed by means of lacunarity analysis. Obtained values were compared with time-to-progression and overall survival. PET and DCE-CT images were compared on a pixel-by-pixel basis using Pearson coefficient of correlation. Results: Three patients with lower FDG uptake (SUVmax: 8+-1) and five patients with higher FDG uptake (SUVmax: 15+-4, P=0.004) were free of local recurrence for 24 months. Two groups of patients with significantly differing lower (group A: 0.37+-0.02, n=6) and higher (group B: 0.52+-0.01, n=4; P<0.01), tumor heterogeneity (lacunarity) were identified. Corresponding mean rTBV was higher in group A (9.6+-1.8 ml/100 ml) than in group B (6.2+-0.6 ml/100 ml). All six patients with homogeneous tumor blood supply (lower lacunarity) and higher rTBV were free of local recurrence during 24 months, while two of four patients with heterogeneous tumor blood supply (higher lacunarity) and lower rTBV died during follow-up due to tumor relapse. A weak correlation between FDG-PET and DCE-CT rTBV was observed (R2=0.1). Conclusion: FDG-PET/CT and DCT-CT are complementary methods for surveillance

  3. Science Letters:Preparation, crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of PH1948, predicted RNA methyltransferase from Pyrococcus horikoshii

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Yong-gui; YAO Min; TANAKA Isao

    2005-01-01

    RNA methyltransferase is responsible for transferring methyl and resulting in methylation on the bases or ribose ring of RNA, which existed widely but mostly remains an open question. A recombinant protein PH1948 predicting RNA methyltransferase from Pyrococcus horikoshii OT3 has been crystallized. The crystals of selenomethionyl PH1948 belong to space group C2, with unit-cell parameters a=207.0 (A),b=43.1 (A), c= 118.2 (A), β=92.1°, and diffract X-rays to 2.2(A) resolution. The VM value was determined to be 2.8(A)3/Da, indicating the presence of four protein molecules in the asymmetric unit.

  4. Cerebral aneurysm treatment using flow-diverting stents: in-vivo visualization of flow alterations by parametric colour coding to predict aneurysmal occlusion: preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gölitz, Philipp; Struffert, Tobias; Rösch, Julie; Ganslandt, Oliver; Knossalla, Frauke; Doerfler, Arnd

    2015-02-01

    After deployment of flow-diverting stents (FDS), complete aneurysm occlusion is not predictable. This study investigated whether parametric colour coding (PCC) could allow in vivo visualization of flow alterations induced by FDS and identify favourable or adverse flow modulations. Thirty-six patients treated by FDS were analyzed. Preinterventional and postinterventional DSA-series were postprocessed by PCC and time-density curves (TDCs) were calculated. The parameters aneurysmal inflow, outflow, and relative time-to-peak (rTTP) were calculated. Preinterventional and postinterventional values were compared and related to occlusion rate. Postinterventional inflow showed a mean reduction of 37%, outflow of 51%, and rTTP a prolongation of 82%. Saccular aneurysm occlusion occurred if a reduction of at least 15% was achieved for inflow and 35% for outflow (sensitivity: 89%, specificity: 82%). Unchanged outflow and a slightly prolonged rTTP were associated with growth in one fusiform aneurysm. PCC allows visualization of flow alterations after FDS treatment, illustrating "flow diverting effects" by the TDC shape and indicating mainly aneurysmal outflow and lesser inflow changes. Quantifiable parameters (inflow, outflow, rTTP) can be obtained, thresholds for predicting aneurysm occlusion determined, and adverse flow modulations assumed. As a rapid intraprocedural tool, PCC might support the decision to implant more than one FDS. • After deployment of a flow-diverting stent, complete aneurysm occlusion is unpredictable. • Parametric colour coding offers new options for visualizing in vivo flow alterations non-invasively. • Quantifiable parameters, i.e., aneurysmal inflow/outflow can be obtained allowing prognostic stratification. • Rapid, intraprocedural application allows treatment monitoring, potentially contributing to patient safety.

  5. Predictive value of early {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT studies for treatment response evaluation to ipilimumab in metastatic melanoma: preliminary results of an ongoing study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sachpekidis, Christos; Pan, Leyun; Dimitrakopoulou-Strauss, Antonia [German Cancer Research Center, Clinical Cooperation Unit Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); Larribere, Lionel [German Cancer Research Center, Clinical Cooperation Unit Dermato-Oncology, Heidelberg (Germany); Haberkorn, Uwe [German Cancer Research Center, Clinical Cooperation Unit Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); University of Heidelberg, Division of Nuclear Medicine, Heidelberg (Germany); Hassel, Jessica C. [University Hospital Heidelberg, Skin Cancer Center, Department of Dermatology, Heidelberg (Germany); National Center for Tumor Diseases Heidelberg, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2014-10-31

    Ipilimumab is a newly approved immunotherapeutic agent that has been shown to provide a survival benefit in patients with metastatic melanoma. {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT has demonstrated very satisfying results in detecting melanoma metastases in general. Using {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT we monitored patients with metastatic melanoma undergoing ipilimumab therapy during the course of treatment. The aim of our study was to evaluate the role of {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT performed after two cycles of ipilimumab in predicting the final response to therapy. In 22 patients suffering from unresectable metastatic melanoma, scheduled for ipilimumab treatment PET/CT scanning was performed before the start of treatment (baseline scan), after two cycles of treatment (early response) and at the end of treatment after four cycles (late response). Evaluation of the patient response to treatment on PET was based on the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer 1999 criteria. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) data are presented. After the end of treatment, 15 patients were characterized as having progressive metabolic disease (PMD) and five as having stable metabolic disease (SMD), and two patients showed a partial metabolic response (PMR). Early PET/CT performed after two ipilimumab cycles predicted treatment response in 13 of the 15 PMD patients, in five of the five SMD patients and in neither of the two PMR patients. Both patients with PMR showed pseudoprogression after the second cycle and were therefore wrongly classified. According to the patients' clinical outcome, patients with late PMD had a median PFS of 3.6 months (mean 5.6 months), while patients with late SMD had a median PFS of 9.8 months (mean 9.0 months). In comparison, patients with early PMD had a median PFS of 2.7 months (mean 5.5 months) and patients with early SMD had a median PFS of 6.3 months (mean 7.5 months). The difference in PFS between the two groups was statistically

  6. Quiet eye training aids the long-term learning of throwing and catching in children: Preliminary evidence for a predictive control strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, C A L; Wood, G; Vine, S J; Vickers, J N; Wilson, M R

    2017-02-01

    Quiet eye training (QET) may be a more effective method for teaching children to catch than traditional training (TT) methods, but it is unclear if the benefits accrued persist in the long term. Thirty children were randomly allocated into a QET or TT group and, while wearing a mobile eye tracker, underwent baseline testing, training and two retention tests over a period of eight weeks, using a validated throw and catch task. During training, movement-related information was provided to both groups, while the QET group received additional instruction to increase the duration of their targeting fixation (QE1) on the wall prior to the throw, and pursuit tracking (QE2) period on the ball prior to catching. In both immediate (R1) and delayed (R2, six weeks later) retention tests, the QET group had a significantly longer QE1 duration and an earlier and longer QE2 duration, compared to the TT group, who revealed no improvements. A performance advantage was also found for the QET compared to the TT group at both R1 and R2, revealing the relatively robust nature of the visuomotor alterations. Regression analyses suggested that only the duration of QE1 predicted variance in catch success post-training, pointing to the importance of a pre-programming visuomotor strategy for successful throw and catch performance.

  7. Reliability and safety engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

    2016-01-01

    Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

  8. Measurement System Reliability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kłos Ryszard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making in problem situations is based on up-to-date and reliable information. A great deal of information is subject to rapid changes, hence it may be outdated or manipulated and enforce erroneous decisions. It is crucial to have the possibility to assess the obtained information. In order to ensure its reliability it is best to obtain it with an own measurement process. In such a case, conducting assessment of measurement system reliability seems to be crucial. The article describes general approach to assessing reliability of measurement systems.

  9. Reliable knowledge discovery

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Honghua; Smirnov, Evgueni

    2012-01-01

    Reliable Knowledge Discovery focuses on theory, methods, and techniques for RKDD, a new sub-field of KDD. It studies the theory and methods to assure the reliability and trustworthiness of discovered knowledge and to maintain the stability and consistency of knowledge discovery processes. RKDD has a broad spectrum of applications, especially in critical domains like medicine, finance, and military. Reliable Knowledge Discovery also presents methods and techniques for designing robust knowledge-discovery processes. Approaches to assessing the reliability of the discovered knowledge are introduc

  10. Reliability of fluid systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kopáček Jaroslav

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the importance of detection reliability, especially in complex fluid systems for demanding production technology. The initial criterion for assessing the reliability is the failure of object (element, which is seen as a random variable and their data (values can be processed using by the mathematical methods of theory probability and statistics. They are defined the basic indicators of reliability and their applications in calculations of serial, parallel and backed-up systems. For illustration, there are calculation examples of indicators of reliability for various elements of the system and for the selected pneumatic circuit.

  11. Circuit design for reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Cao, Yu; Wirth, Gilson

    2015-01-01

    This book presents physical understanding, modeling and simulation, on-chip characterization, layout solutions, and design techniques that are effective to enhance the reliability of various circuit units.  The authors provide readers with techniques for state of the art and future technologies, ranging from technology modeling, fault detection and analysis, circuit hardening, and reliability management. Provides comprehensive review on various reliability mechanisms at sub-45nm nodes; Describes practical modeling and characterization techniques for reliability; Includes thorough presentation of robust design techniques for major VLSI design units; Promotes physical understanding with first-principle simulations.

  12. Resource allocatiion: sequential data collection for reliability analysis involving systems and component level data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson-cooke, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    In analyzing the reliability of complex systems, several types of data from full-system tests to component level tests are commonly available and are used. After a preliminary analysis, additional resources may be available to collect new data. The goal of resource allocation is to identify the best new data to collect to maximally improve the prediction of system reliability. While several possible definitions of 'maximally improve' are possible, we focus on reducing the uncertainty or the width of the uncertainty interval for the prediction of system reliability at a user-specified age(s). In this paper, we present an algorithm that allows us to estimate the anticipated improvement to the analysis with the addition of new data, based on current understanding of all of the statistical model parameters. This quantitative assessment of the anticipated improvement can be helpful to justify the benefits of collecting new data. Additionally by comparing different potential allocations, it is possible to determine what new data should be collected to improve our understanding of the response. This optimization takes into account the relative cost of different data types and can be based on flexible allocation options, or subject to logistical constraints.

  13. Design for Reliability of Power Electronic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2012-01-01

    availability, long lifetime, sufficient robustness, low maintenance cost and low cost of energy. However, the reliability predictions are still dominantly according to outdated models and terms, such as MIL-HDBK-217F handbook models, Mean-Time-To-Failure (MTTF), and Mean-Time-Between-Failures (MTBF......Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible processing of electric power in the application of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, adjustable-speed drives, etc. More and more efforts are devoted to better power electronic systems in terms of reliability to ensure high......). A collection of methodologies based on Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile analysis are presented in this paper to perform reliability-oriented design of power electronic systems. The corresponding design procedures and reliability prediction models are provided. Further on, a case study...

  14. Principles of Bridge Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Nowak, Andrzej S.

    The paper gives a brief introduction to the basic principles of structural reliability theory and its application to bridge engineering. Fundamental concepts like failure probability and reliability index are introduced. Ultimate as well as serviceability limit states for bridges are formulated...

  15. Improving machinery reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bloch, Heinz P

    1998-01-01

    This totally revised, updated and expanded edition provides proven techniques and procedures that extend machinery life, reduce maintenance costs, and achieve optimum machinery reliability. This essential text clearly describes the reliability improvement and failure avoidance steps practiced by best-of-class process plants in the U.S. and Europe.

  16. Hawaii Electric System Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loose, Verne William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers’ views of reliability “worth” and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers’ views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

  17. Hawaii electric system reliability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto; Loose, Verne William

    2012-09-01

    This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers' views of reliability %E2%80%9Cworth%E2%80%9D and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers' views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

  18. Quality and reliability management and its applications

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    Integrating development processes, policies, and reliability predictions from the beginning of the product development lifecycle to ensure high levels of product performance and safety, this book helps companies overcome the challenges posed by increasingly complex systems in today’s competitive marketplace.   Examining both research on and practical aspects of product quality and reliability management with an emphasis on applications, the book features contributions written by active researchers and/or experienced practitioners in the field, so as to effectively bridge the gap between theory and practice and address new research challenges in reliability and quality management in practice.    Postgraduates, researchers and practitioners in the areas of reliability engineering and management, amongst others, will find the book to offer a state-of-the-art survey of quality and reliability management and practices.

  19. Chapter 9: Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Algora, Carlos; Espinet-Gonzalez, Pilar; Vazquez, Manuel; Bosco, Nick; Miller, David; Kurtz, Sarah; Rubio, Francisca; McConnell,Robert

    2016-04-15

    This chapter describes the accumulated knowledge on CPV reliability with its fundamentals and qualification. It explains the reliability of solar cells, modules (including optics) and plants. The chapter discusses the statistical distributions, namely exponential, normal and Weibull. The reliability of solar cells includes: namely the issues in accelerated aging tests in CPV solar cells, types of failure and failures in real time operation. The chapter explores the accelerated life tests, namely qualitative life tests (mainly HALT) and quantitative accelerated life tests (QALT). It examines other well proven and experienced PV cells and/or semiconductor devices, which share similar semiconductor materials, manufacturing techniques or operating conditions, namely, III-V space solar cells and light emitting diodes (LEDs). It addresses each of the identified reliability issues and presents the current state of the art knowledge for their testing and evaluation. Finally, the chapter summarizes the CPV qualification and reliability standards.

  20. MEMS reliability: The challenge and the promise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, W.M.; Tanner, D.M.; Miller, S.L.; Peterson, K.A.

    1998-05-01

    MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) that think, sense, act and communicate will open up a broad new array of cost effective solutions only if they prove to be sufficiently reliable. A valid reliability assessment of MEMS has three prerequisites: (1) statistical significance; (2) a technique for accelerating fundamental failure mechanisms, and (3) valid physical models to allow prediction of failures during actual use. These already exist for the microelectronics portion of such integrated systems. The challenge lies in the less well understood micromachine portions and its synergistic effects with microelectronics. This paper presents a methodology addressing these prerequisites and a description of the underlying physics of reliability for micromachines.

  1. An Investigation of Software metrics Affect on Cobol Program reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Day II, Henry Jesse

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to predict a COBOL program's reliability from software characteristics that are found in the program's source code. The first step was to select factors based on the human information processing model that are associated with changes in computer program reliability. Then these factors (software metrics) were quantitatively studied to determine which factors affect COBOL program reliability. Then a statistical model was developed that predicts COBOL program rel...

  2. Photovoltaic system reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maish, A.B.; Atcitty, C. [Sandia National Labs., NM (United States); Greenberg, D. [Ascension Technology, Inc., Lincoln Center, MA (United States)] [and others

    1997-10-01

    This paper discusses the reliability of several photovoltaic projects including SMUD`s PV Pioneer project, various projects monitored by Ascension Technology, and the Colorado Parks project. System times-to-failure range from 1 to 16 years, and maintenance costs range from 1 to 16 cents per kilowatt-hour. Factors contributing to the reliability of these systems are discussed, and practices are recommended that can be applied to future projects. This paper also discusses the methodology used to collect and analyze PV system reliability data.

  3. Technique for Measuring Hybrid Electronic Component Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, C.C.; Hernandez, C.L.; Hosking, F.M.; Robinson, D.; Rutherford, B.; Uribe, F.

    1999-01-01

    Materials compatibility studies of aged, engineered materials and hardware are critical to understanding and predicting component reliability, particularly for systems with extended stockpile life requirements. Nondestructive testing capabilities for component reliability would significantly enhance lifetime predictions. For example, if the detection of crack propagation through a solder joint can be demonstrated, this technique could be used to develop baseline information to statistically determine solder joint lifelengths. This report will investigate high frequency signal response techniques for nondestructively evaluating the electrical behavior of thick film hybrid transmission lines.

  4. Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients using Neural Networks for Sparse Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, T.; Bardina, Jorge; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Basic aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of angles of attack and sideslip with vehicle lateral symmetry and compressibility effects. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. In this paper a fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network. The training data for the neural network is derived from wind tunnel test and numerical simulations. The coefficients of lift, drag, pitching moment are expressed as a function of alpha (angle of attack) and Mach number. The results produced from preliminary neural network analysis are very good.

  5. Reliable Electronic Equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Nayak

    1960-05-01

    Full Text Available The reliability aspect of electronic equipment's is discussed. To obtain optimum results, close cooperation between the components engineer, the design engineer and the production engineer is suggested.

  6. The rating reliability calculator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon David J

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

  7. Reliability of power connections

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BRAUNOVIC Milenko

    2007-01-01

    Despite the use of various preventive maintenance measures, there are still a number of problem areas that can adversely affect system reliability. Also, economical constraints have pushed the designs of power connections closer to the limits allowed by the existing standards. The major parameters influencing the reliability and life of Al-Al and Al-Cu connections are identified. The effectiveness of various palliative measures is determined and the misconceptions about their effectiveness are dealt in detail.

  8. Preliminary Monthly Climatological Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Preliminary Local Climatological Data, recorded since 1970 on Weather Burean Form 1030 and then National Weather Service Form F-6. The preliminary climate data pages...

  9. Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of Component Reliability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZhenhuaGe

    2004-01-01

    In a system, Every component has its unique position within system and its unique failure characteristics. When a component's reliability is changed, its effect on system reliability is not equal. Component reliability sensitivity is a measure of effect on system reliability while a component's reliability is changed. In this paper, the definition and relative matrix of component reliability sensitivity is proposed, and some of their characteristics are analyzed. All these will help us to analyse or improve the system reliability.

  11. A PRELIMINARY JUPITER MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubbard, W. B. [Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Militzer, B. [Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2016-03-20

    In anticipation of new observational results for Jupiter's axial moment of inertia and gravitational zonal harmonic coefficients from the forthcoming Juno orbiter, we present a number of preliminary Jupiter interior models. We combine results from ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen–helium mixtures, including immiscibility calculations, with a new nonperturbative calculation of Jupiter's zonal harmonic coefficients, to derive a self-consistent model for the planet's external gravity and moment of inertia. We assume helium rain modified the interior temperature and composition profiles. Our calculation predicts zonal harmonic values to which measurements can be compared. Although some models fit the observed (pre-Juno) second- and fourth-order zonal harmonics to within their error bars, our preferred reference model predicts a fourth-order zonal harmonic whose absolute value lies above the pre-Juno error bars. This model has a dense core of about 12 Earth masses and a hydrogen–helium-rich envelope with approximately three times solar metallicity.

  12. THE AIRLINE'S RELIABILITY PROGRAM

    OpenAIRE

    Тамаргазін, О. А.; Національний авіаційний університет; Власенко, П. О.; Національний авіаційний університет

    2013-01-01

    Airline's operational structure for Reliability program implementation — engineering division, reliability  division, reliability control division, aircraft maintenance division, quality assurance division — was considered. Airline's Reliability program structure is shown. Using of Reliability program for reducing costs on aircraft maintenance is proposed. Рассмотрена организационная структура авиакомпании по выполнению Программы надежности - инженерный отдел, отделы по надежности авиацио...

  13. Ultra reliability at NASA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Andrew A.

    2006-01-01

    Ultra reliable systems are critical to NASA particularly as consideration is being given to extended lunar missions and manned missions to Mars. NASA has formulated a program designed to improve the reliability of NASA systems. The long term goal for the NASA ultra reliability is to ultimately improve NASA systems by an order of magnitude. The approach outlined in this presentation involves the steps used in developing a strategic plan to achieve the long term objective of ultra reliability. Consideration is given to: complex systems, hardware (including aircraft, aerospace craft and launch vehicles), software, human interactions, long life missions, infrastructure development, and cross cutting technologies. Several NASA-wide workshops have been held, identifying issues for reliability improvement and providing mitigation strategies for these issues. In addition to representation from all of the NASA centers, experts from government (NASA and non-NASA), universities and industry participated. Highlights of a strategic plan, which is being developed using the results from these workshops, will be presented.

  14. Photovoltaic module reliability workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mrig, L. (ed.)

    1990-01-01

    The paper and presentations compiled in this volume form the Proceedings of the fourth in a series of Workshops sponsored by Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI/DOE) under the general theme of photovoltaic module reliability during the period 1986--1990. The reliability Photo Voltaic (PV) modules/systems is exceedingly important along with the initial cost and efficiency of modules if the PV technology has to make a major impact in the power generation market, and for it to compete with the conventional electricity producing technologies. The reliability of photovoltaic modules has progressed significantly in the last few years as evidenced by warranties available on commercial modules of as long as 12 years. However, there is still need for substantial research and testing required to improve module field reliability to levels of 30 years or more. Several small groups of researchers are involved in this research, development, and monitoring activity around the world. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in this field were brought together under SERI/DOE sponsorship to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this important field. The papers presented here reflect this effort.

  15. Reliability of lightning resistant overhead distribution lines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tolbert, L.M.; Cleveland, J.T.; Degenhardt, L.J.

    1995-04-01

    An assessment of the 32 year historical reliability of the 13.8 kV electrical distribution system at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Tennessee has yielded several conclusions useful In the planning of Industrial power Systems. The system configuration at ORNL has essentially remained unchanged in the last 32 years which allows a meaningful comparison of reliability trends for the plant`s eight overhead distribution lines, two of which were built in the 1960`s with lightning resistant construction techniques. Meticulous records indicating the cause, duration, and location of 135 electric outages in the plant`s distribution system have allowed a reliability assessment to be performed. The assessment clearly shows how differences in voltage construction class, length, age, and maximum elevation above a reference elevation influence the reliability of overhead power distribution lines. Comparisons are also made between the ORNL historical data and predicted failure rates from ANSI and IEEE industry surveys.

  16. Wind turbine reliability : a database and analysis approach.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linsday, James (ARES Corporation); Briand, Daniel; Hill, Roger Ray; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.; Benjamin, Allan S. (ARES Corporation)

    2008-02-01

    The US wind Industry has experienced remarkable growth since the turn of the century. At the same time, the physical size and electrical generation capabilities of wind turbines has also experienced remarkable growth. As the market continues to expand, and as wind generation continues to gain a significant share of the generation portfolio, the reliability of wind turbine technology becomes increasingly important. This report addresses how operations and maintenance costs are related to unreliability - that is the failures experienced by systems and components. Reliability tools are demonstrated, data needed to understand and catalog failure events is described, and practical wind turbine reliability models are illustrated, including preliminary results. This report also presents a continuing process of how to proceed with controlling industry requirements, needs, and expectations related to Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety. A simply stated goal of this process is to better understand and to improve the operable reliability of wind turbine installations.

  17. THE RELIABILITY STUDY OF MINE DESIGN

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    彭世济; 张达贤; 习永峰; 卢明银; 孙洪泉

    1991-01-01

    The method of reliability analysis of mineral reserve estimation, mining construction, mining technological system and surface mine investment in mine design is discussed in this paper. On the basis of this method, the questions, such as "whether the planned production and predicted economic effectiveness could be obtained", can be answered, and corresponding measures can be taken.

  18. Reliability Centered Maintenance - Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammerer, Catherine C.

    2009-01-01

    Journal article about Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) methodologies used by United Space Alliance, LLC (USA) in support of the Space Shuttle Program at Kennedy Space Center. The USA Reliability Centered Maintenance program differs from traditional RCM programs because various methodologies are utilized to take advantage of their respective strengths for each application. Based on operational experience, USA has customized the traditional RCM methodology into a streamlined lean logic path and has implemented the use of statistical tools to drive the process. USA RCM has integrated many of the L6S tools into both RCM methodologies. The tools utilized in the Measure, Analyze, and Improve phases of a Lean Six Sigma project lend themselves to application in the RCM process. All USA RCM methodologies meet the requirements defined in SAE JA 1011, Evaluation Criteria for Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) Processes. The proposed article explores these methodologies.

  19. Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Update (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheng, S.; Keller, J.; Glinsky, C.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation was given at the Sandia Reliability Workshop in August 2013 and provides information on current statistics, a status update, next steps, and other reliability research and development activities related to the Gearbox Reliability Collaborative.

  20. Modeling of humidity-related reliability in enclosures with electronics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hygum, Morten Arnfeldt; Popok, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Reliability of electronics that operate outdoor is strongly affected by environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Fluctuations of these parameters can lead to water condensation inside enclosures. Therefore, modelling of humidity distribution in a container with air and freely exposed...... to predict humidity-related reliability of a printed circuit board (PCB) located in a cabinet by combining structural reliability methods and non-linear diffusion models. This framework can, thus, be used for reliability prediction from a climatic point-of-view. The proposed numerical approach is then tested...

  1. Preliminary validation of the Yale Food Addiction Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gearhardt, Ashley N; Corbin, William R; Brownell, Kelly D

    2009-04-01

    Previous research has found similarities between addiction to psychoactive substances and excessive food consumption. Further exploration is needed to evaluate the concept of "food addiction," as there is currently a lack of psychometrically validated measurement tools in this area. The current study represents a preliminary exploration of the Yale Food Addiction Scale (YFAS), designed to identify those exhibiting signs of addiction towards certain types of foods (e.g., high fat and high sugar). Survey data were collected from 353 respondents from a stratified random sample of young adults. In addition to the YFAS, the survey assessed eating pathology, alcohol consumption and other health behaviors. The YFAS exhibited adequate internal reliability, and showed good convergent validity with measures of similar constructs and good discriminant validity relative to related but dissimilar constructs. Additionally, the YFAS predicted binge-eating behavior above and beyond existing measures of eating pathology, demonstrating incremental validity. The YFAS is a sound tool for identifying eating patterns that are similar to behaviors seen in classic areas of addiction. Further evaluation of the scale is needed, especially due to a low response rate of 24.5% and a non-clinical sample, but confirmation of the reliability and validity of the scale has the potential to facilitate empirical research on the concept of "food addiction".

  2. System Reliability Analysis: Foundations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-07-01

    performance formulas for systems subject to pre- ventive maintenance are given. V * ~, , 9 D -2 SYSTEM RELIABILITY ANALYSIS: FOUNDATIONS Richard E...reliability in this case is V P{s can communicate with the terminal t = h(p) Sp2(((((p p)p) p)p)gp) + p(l -p)(((pL p)p)(p 2 JLp)) + p(l -p)((p(p p...For undirected networks, the basic reference is A. Satyanarayana and Kevin Wood (1982). For directed networks, the basic reference is Avinash

  3. Analysis on testing and operational reliability of software

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Jing; LIU Hong-wei; CUI Gang; WANG Hui-qiang

    2008-01-01

    Software reliability was estimated based on NHPP software reliability growth models. Testing reliability and operational reliability may be essentially different. On the basis of analyzing similarities and differences of the testing phase and the operational phase, using the concept of operational reliability and the testing reliability, different forms of the comparison between the operational failure ratio and the predicted testing failure ratio were conducted, and the mathematical discussion and analysis were performed in detail. Finally, software optimal release was studied using software failure data. The results show that two kinds of conclusions can be derived by applying this method, one conclusion is to continue testing to meet the required reliability level of users, and the other is that testing stops when the required operational reliability is met, thus the testing cost can be reduced.

  4. Expert system aids reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, A.T. [Tennessee Gas Pipeline, Houston, TX (United States)

    1997-09-01

    Quality and Reliability are key requirements in the energy transmission industry. Tennessee Gas Co. a division of El Paso Energy, has applied Gensym`s G2, object-oriented Expert System programming language as a standard tool for maintaining and improving quality and reliability in pipeline operation. Tennessee created a small team of gas controllers and engineers to develop a Proactive Controller`s Assistant (ProCA) that provides recommendations for operating the pipeline more efficiently, reliably and safely. The controller`s pipeline operating knowledge is recreated in G2 in the form of Rules and Procedures in ProCA. Two G2 programmers supporting the Gas Control Room add information to the ProCA knowledge base daily. The result is a dynamic, constantly improving system that not only supports the pipeline controllers in their operations, but also the measurement and communications departments` requests for special studies. The Proactive Controller`s Assistant development focus is in the following areas: Alarm Management; Pipeline Efficiency; Reliability; Fuel Efficiency; and Controller Development.

  5. Reliability based structural design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2014-01-01

    According to ISO 2394, structures shall be designed, constructed and maintained in such a way that they are suited for their use during the design working life in an economic way. To fulfil this requirement one needs insight into the risk and reliability under expected and non-expected actions. A ke

  6. Reliability based structural design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2013-01-01

    According to ISO 2394, structures shall be designed, constructed and maintained in such a way that they are suited for their use during the design working life in an economic way. To fulfil this requirement one needs insight into the risk and reliability under expected and non-expected actions. A ke

  7. The value of reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Karlström, Anders

    2010-01-01

    We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. Using a simple formulation of scheduling utility, we show that the maximal expected utility is linear in the mean and standard deviation of trip duration, regardless...

  8. Parametric Mass Reliability Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, James P.

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) systems are designed based upon having redundant systems with replaceable orbital replacement units (ORUs). These ORUs are designed to be swapped out fairly quickly, but some are very large, and some are made up of many components. When an ORU fails, it is replaced on orbit with a spare; the failed unit is sometimes returned to Earth to be serviced and re-launched. Such a system is not feasible for a 500+ day long-duration mission beyond low Earth orbit. The components that make up these ORUs have mixed reliabilities. Components that make up the most mass-such as computer housings, pump casings, and the silicon board of PCBs-typically are the most reliable. Meanwhile components that tend to fail the earliest-such as seals or gaskets-typically have a small mass. To better understand the problem, my project is to create a parametric model that relates both the mass of ORUs to reliability, as well as the mass of ORU subcomponents to reliability.

  9. Avionics Design for Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-03-01

    Consultant P.O. Box 181, Hazelwood. Missouri 63042, U.S.A. soup ""•.• • CONTENTS Page LIST OF SPEAKERS iii INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW-RELIABILITY UNDER... primordial , d’autant plus quo dans co cam ia procg- dure do st~lection en fiabilitg eat assez peu efficaco. La ripartition des pannes suit

  10. Wind Energy - How Reliable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    The reliability of a wind energy system depends on the size of the propeller and the size of the back-up energy storage. Design of the optimum system...speed incidents which generate a significant part of the wind energy . A nomogram is presented, based on some continuous wind speed measurements

  11. The reliability horizon

    CERN Document Server

    Visser, M

    1997-01-01

    The ``reliability horizon'' for semi-classical quantum gravity quantifies the extent to which we should trust semi-classical quantum gravity, and gives a handle on just where the ``Planck regime'' resides. The key obstruction to pushing semi-classical quantum gravity into the Planck regime is often the existence of large metric fluctuations, rather than a large back-reaction.

  12. Reliability of semiology description.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, Jae-Hyeok; Kim, Dong Wook; Lee, Seo-Young; Cho, Jinwhan; Lee, Sang-Kun; Nam, Hyunwoo

    2008-01-01

    Seizure semiology is important for classifying patients' epilepsy. Physicians usually get most of the seizure information from observers though there have been few reports on the reliability of the observers' description. This study aims at determining the reliability of observers' description of the semiology. We included 92 patients who had their habitual seizures recorded during video-EEG monitoring. We compared the semiology described by the observers with that recorded on the videotape, and reviewed which characteristics of the observers affected the reliability of their reported data. The classification of seizures and the individual components of the semiology based only on the observer-description was somewhat discordant compared with the findings from the videotape (correct classification, 85%). The descriptions of some ictal behaviors such as oroalimentary automatism, tonic/dystonic limb posturing, and head versions were relatively accurate, but those of motionless staring and hand automatism were less accurate. The specified directions by the observers were relatively correct. The accuracy of the description was related to the educational level of the observers. Much of the information described by well-educated observers is reliable. However, every physician should keep in mind the limitations of this information and use this information cautiously.

  13. High reliability organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gallis, R.; Zwetsloot, G.I.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    High Reliability Organizations (HRO’s) are organizations that constantly face serious and complex (safety) risks yet succeed in realising an excellent safety performance. In such situations acceptable levels of safety cannot be achieved by traditional safety management only. HRO’s manage safety

  14. Component Reliability Assessment of Offshore Jacket Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.J. Kurian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Oil and gas industry is one of the most important industries contributing to the Malaysian economy. To extract hydrocarbons, various types of production platforms have been developed. Fixed jacket platform is the earliest type of production structure, widely installed in Malaysia’s shallow and intermediate waters. To date, more than 60% of these jacket platforms have operated exceeding their initial design life, thus making the re-evaluation and reassessment necessary for these platforms to continue to be put in service. In normal engineering practice, system reliability of a structure is evaluated as its safety parameter. This method is however, much complicated and time consuming. Assessing component's reliability can be an alternative approach to provide assurance about a structure’s condition in an early stage. Design codes such as the Working Stress Design (WSD and the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD are well established for the component-level assessment. In reliability analysis, failure function, which consists of strength and load, is used to define the failure event. If the load acting exceeds the capacity of a structure, the structure will fail. Calculation of stress utilization ratio as given in the design codes is able to predict the reliability of a member and to estimate the extent to which a member is being utilised. The basic idea of this ratio is that if it is more than one, the member has failed and vice versa. Stress utilization ratio is a ratio of applied stress, which is the output reaction of environmental loadings acting on the structural member, to the design strength that comes from the member’s geometric and material properties. Adopting this ratio as the failure event, the reliability of each component is found. This study reviews and discusses the reliability for selected members of three Malaysian offshore jacket platforms. First Order Reliability Method (FORM was used to generate reliability index and

  15. Reliability and Validity of a Breast Self-Examination Proficiency Rating Instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Robin Y.

    1994-01-01

    The reliability and validity of a newly constructed instrument, the Breast Self-Examination Proficiency Rating Instrument, was tested with 84 instructed and 80 uninstructed nursing students. Results support beginning reliability and preliminary validity when the instrument is used in a controlled setting. (SLD)

  16. Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

    2006-12-01

    Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991) cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.

  17. Reliability in the utility computing era: Towards reliable Fog computing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Burtschy, Bernard; Albeanu, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers current paradigms in computing and outlines the most important aspects concerning their reliability. The Fog computing paradigm as a non-trivial extension of the Cloud is considered and the reliability of the networks of smart devices are discussed. Combining the reliability...... requirements of grid and cloud paradigms with the reliability requirements of networks of sensor and actuators it follows that designing a reliable Fog computing platform is feasible....

  18. A Preliminary Study of the Ability of the 4Kscore test, the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial-Risk Calculator and the European Research Screening Prostate-Risk Calculator for Predicting High-Grade Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borque-Fernando, Á; Esteban-Escaño, L M; Rubio-Briones, J; Lou-Mercadé, A C; García-Ruiz, R; Tejero-Sánchez, A; Muñoz-Rivero, M V; Cabañuz-Plo, T; Alfaro-Torres, J; Marquina-Ibáñez, I M; Hakim-Alonso, S; Mejía-Urbáez, E; Gil-Fabra, J; Gil-Martínez, P; Ávarez-Alegret, R; Sanz, G; Gil-Sanz, M J

    2016-04-01

    To prevent the overdiagnosis and overtreatment of prostate cancer (PC), therapeutic strategies have been established such as active surveillance and focal therapy, as well as methods for clarifying the diagnosis of high-grade prostate cancer (HGPC) (defined as a Gleason score ≥7), such as multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging and new markers such as the 4Kscore test (4KsT). By means of a pilot study, we aim to test the ability of the 4KsT to identify HGPC in prostate biopsies (Bx) and compare the test with other multivariate prognostic models such as the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator 2.0 (PCPTRC 2.0) and the European Research Screening Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator 4 (ERSPC-RC 4). Fifty-one patients underwent a prostate Bx according to standard clinical practice, with a minimum of 10 cores. The diagnosis of HGPC was agreed upon by 4 uropathologists. We compared the predictions from the various models by using the Mann-Whitney U test, area under the ROC curve (AUC) (DeLong test), probability density function (PDF), box plots and clinical utility curves. Forty-three percent of the patients had PC, and 23.5% had HGPC. The medians of probability for the 4KsT, PCPTRC 2.0 and ERSPC-RC 4 were significantly different between the patients with HGPC and those without HGPC (p≤.022) and were more differentiated in the case of 4KsT (51.5% for HGPC [25-75 percentile: 25-80.5%] vs. 16% [P 25-75: 8-26.5%] for non-HGPC; p=.002). All models presented AUCs above 0.7, with no significant differences between any of them and 4KsT (p≥.20). The PDF and box plots showed good discriminative ability, especially in the ERSPC-RC 4 and 4KsT models. The utility curves showed how a cutoff of 9% for 4KsT identified all cases of HGPC and provided a 22% savings in biopsies, which is similar to what occurs with the ERSPC-RC 4 models and a cutoff of 3%. The assessed predictive models offer good discriminative ability for HGPCs in Bx. The 4KsT is a good classification

  19. Reliability Degradation Due to Stockpile Aging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, David G.

    1999-04-01

    The objective of this reseach is the investigation of alternative methods for characterizing the reliability of systems with time dependent failure modes associated with stockpile aging. Reference to 'reliability degradation' has, unfortunately, come to be associated with all types of aging analyes: both deterministic and stochastic. In this research, in keeping with the true theoretical definition, reliability is defined as a probabilistic description of system performance as a funtion of time. Traditional reliability methods used to characterize stockpile reliability depend on the collection of a large number of samples or observations. Clearly, after the experiments have been performed and the data has been collected, critical performance problems can be identified. A Major goal of this research is to identify existing methods and/or develop new mathematical techniques and computer analysis tools to anticipate stockpile problems before they become critical issues. One of the most popular methods for characterizing the reliability of components, particularly electronic components, assumes that failures occur in a completely random fashion, i.e. uniformly across time. This method is based primarily on the use of constant failure rates for the various elements that constitute the weapon system, i.e. the systems do not degrade while in storage. Experience has shown that predictions based upon this approach should be regarded with great skepticism since the relationship between the life predicted and the observed life has been difficult to validate. In addition to this fundamental problem, the approach does not recognize that there are time dependent material properties and variations associated with the manufacturing process and the operational environment. To appreciate the uncertainties in predicting system reliability a number of alternative methods are explored in this report. All of the methods are very different from those currently used to assess

  20. Human Reliability Program Workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landers, John; Rogers, Erin; Gerke, Gretchen

    2014-05-18

    A Human Reliability Program (HRP) is designed to protect national security as well as worker and public safety by continuously evaluating the reliability of those who have access to sensitive materials, facilities, and programs. Some elements of a site HRP include systematic (1) supervisory reviews, (2) medical and psychological assessments, (3) management evaluations, (4) personnel security reviews, and (4) training of HRP staff and critical positions. Over the years of implementing an HRP, the Department of Energy (DOE) has faced various challenges and overcome obstacles. During this 4-day activity, participants will examine programs that mitigate threats to nuclear security and the insider threat to include HRP, Nuclear Security Culture (NSC) Enhancement, and Employee Assistance Programs. The focus will be to develop an understanding of the need for a systematic HRP and to discuss challenges and best practices associated with mitigating the insider threat.

  1. Accelerator reliability workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardy, L.; Duru, Ph.; Koch, J.M.; Revol, J.L.; Van Vaerenbergh, P.; Volpe, A.M.; Clugnet, K.; Dely, A.; Goodhew, D

    2002-07-01

    About 80 experts attended this workshop, which brought together all accelerator communities: accelerator driven systems, X-ray sources, medical and industrial accelerators, spallation sources projects (American and European), nuclear physics, etc. With newly proposed accelerator applications such as nuclear waste transmutation, replacement of nuclear power plants and others. Reliability has now become a number one priority for accelerator designers. Every part of an accelerator facility from cryogenic systems to data storage via RF systems are concerned by reliability. This aspect is now taken into account in the design/budget phase, especially for projects whose goal is to reach no more than 10 interruptions per year. This document gathers the slides but not the proceedings of the workshop.

  2. Reliability and construction control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherif S. AbdelSalam

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to determine the most reliable and efficient combination of design and construction methods required for vibro piles. For a wide range of static and dynamic formulas, the reliability-based resistance factors were calculated using EGYPT database, which houses load test results for 318 piles. The analysis was extended to introduce a construction control factor that determines the variation between the pile nominal capacities calculated using static versus dynamic formulae. From the major outcomes, the lowest coefficient of variation is associated with Davisson’s criterion, and the resistance factors calculated for the AASHTO method are relatively high compared with other methods. Additionally, the CPT-Nottingham and Schmertmann method provided the most economic design. Recommendations related to a pile construction control factor were also presented, and it was found that utilizing the factor can significantly reduce variations between calculated and actual capacities.

  3. Improving Power Converter Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghimire, Pramod; de Vega, Angel Ruiz; Beczkowski, Szymon

    2014-01-01

    The real-time junction temperature monitoring of a high-power insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) module is important to increase the overall reliability of power converters for industrial applications. This article proposes a new method to measure the on-state collector?emitter voltage...... of a high-power IGBT module during converter operation, which may play a vital role in improving the reliability of the power converters. The measured voltage is used to estimate the module average junction temperature of the high and low-voltage side of a half-bridge IGBT separately in every fundamental...... is measured in a wind power converter at a low fundamental frequency. To illustrate more, the test method as well as the performance of the measurement circuit are also presented. This measurement is also useful to indicate failure mechanisms such as bond wire lift-off and solder layer degradation...

  4. ATLAS reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartsch, R.R.

    1995-09-01

    Key elements of the 36 MJ ATLAS capacitor bank have been evaluated for individual probabilities of failure. These have been combined to estimate system reliability which is to be greater than 95% on each experimental shot. This analysis utilizes Weibull or Weibull-like distributions with increasing probability of failure with the number of shots. For transmission line insulation, a minimum thickness is obtained and for the railgaps, a method for obtaining a maintenance interval from forthcoming life tests is suggested.

  5. Reliability of Circumplex Axes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micha Strack

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA procedure for computing the reliability of circumplex axes. The tau-equivalent CFA variance decomposition model estimates five variance components: general factor, axes, scale-specificity, block-specificity, and item-specificity. Only the axes variance component is used for reliability estimation. We apply the model to six circumplex types and 13 instruments assessing interpersonal and motivational constructs—Interpersonal Adjective List (IAL, Interpersonal Adjective Scales (revised; IAS-R, Inventory of Interpersonal Problems (IIP, Impact Messages Inventory (IMI, Circumplex Scales of Interpersonal Values (CSIV, Support Action Scale Circumplex (SAS-C, Interaction Problems With Animals (IPI-A, Team Role Circle (TRC, Competing Values Leadership Instrument (CV-LI, Love Styles, Organizational Culture Assessment Instrument (OCAI, Customer Orientation Circle (COC, and System for Multi-Level Observation of Groups (behavioral adjectives; SYMLOG—in 17 German-speaking samples (29 subsamples, grouped by self-report, other report, and metaperception assessments. The general factor accounted for a proportion ranging from 1% to 48% of the item variance, the axes component for 2% to 30%; and scale specificity for 1% to 28%, respectively. Reliability estimates varied considerably from .13 to .92. An application of the Nunnally and Bernstein formula proposed by Markey, Markey, and Tinsley overestimated axes reliabilities in cases of large-scale specificities but otherwise works effectively. Contemporary circumplex evaluations such as Tracey’s RANDALL are sensitive to the ratio of the axes and scale-specificity components. In contrast, the proposed model isolates both components.

  6. Preliminary aerothermodynamic design method for hypersonic vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harloff, G. J.; Petrie, S. L.

    1987-01-01

    Preliminary design methods are presented for vehicle aerothermodynamics. Predictions are made for Shuttle orbiter, a Mach 6 transport vehicle and a high-speed missile configuration. Rapid and accurate methods are discussed for obtaining aerodynamic coefficients and heat transfer rates for laminar and turbulent flows for vehicles at high angles of attack and hypersonic Mach numbers.

  7. On reliable discovery of molecular signatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Björkegren Johan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular signatures are sets of genes, proteins, genetic variants or other variables that can be used as markers for a particular phenotype. Reliable signature discovery methods could yield valuable insight into cell biology and mechanisms of human disease. However, it is currently not clear how to control error rates such as the false discovery rate (FDR in signature discovery. Moreover, signatures for cancer gene expression have been shown to be unstable, that is, difficult to replicate in independent studies, casting doubts on their reliability. Results We demonstrate that with modern prediction methods, signatures that yield accurate predictions may still have a high FDR. Further, we show that even signatures with low FDR may fail to replicate in independent studies due to limited statistical power. Thus, neither stability nor predictive accuracy are relevant when FDR control is the primary goal. We therefore develop a general statistical hypothesis testing framework that for the first time provides FDR control for signature discovery. Our method is demonstrated to be correct in simulation studies. When applied to five cancer data sets, the method was able to discover molecular signatures with 5% FDR in three cases, while two data sets yielded no significant findings. Conclusion Our approach enables reliable discovery of molecular signatures from genome-wide data with current sample sizes. The statistical framework developed herein is potentially applicable to a wide range of prediction problems in bioinformatics.

  8. Macroscopic travel time reliability diagrams for freeway networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tu, H.; Li, H.; Van Lint, J.W.C.; Knoop, V.L.; Sun, L.

    2013-01-01

    Travel time reliability is considered to be one of the key indicators of transport system performance. Knowledge of the mechanisms of travel time unreliability enables the derivation of explanatory models with which travel time reliability can be predicted and utilized in traffic management.

  9. Macroscopic travel time reliability diagrams for freeway networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tu, H.; Li, H.; Van Lint, J.W.C.; Knoop, V.L.; Sun, L.

    2013-01-01

    Travel time reliability is considered to be one of the key indicators of transport system performance. Knowledge of the mechanisms of travel time unreliability enables the derivation of explanatory models with which travel time reliability can be predicted and utilized in traffic management. Inspire

  10. Novel Low Cost, High Reliability Wind Turbine Drivetrain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chobot, Anthony; Das, Debarshi; Mayer, Tyler; Markey, Zach; Martinson, Tim; Reeve, Hayden; Attridge, Paul; El-Wardany, Tahany

    2012-09-13

    energy by 10.2%. This design was achieved by: (1) performing an extensive optimization study that deter-mined the preliminary cost for all practical chain drive topologies to ensure the most competitive configuration; (2) conducting detailed analysis of chain dynamics, contact stresses, and wear and efficiency characteristics over the chain's life to ensure accurate physics-based predictions of chain performance; and (3) developing a final product design, including reliability analysis, chain replacement procedures, and bearing and sprocket analysis. Definition of this final product configuration was used to develop refined cost of energy estimates. Finally, key system risks for the chain drive were defined and a comprehensive risk reduction plan was created for execution in Phase 2.

  11. Integrated circuit reliability. Citations from the NTIS data base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, W. E.

    1980-06-01

    The bibliography presents research pertinent to design, reliability prediction, failure and malfunction, processing techniques, and radiation damage. This updated bibliography contains 193 abstracts, 17 of which are new entries to the previous edition.

  12. Quantifiable and Reliable Structural Health Management Systems Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Major concerns for implementing a practical built-in structural health monitoring system are prediction accuracy and data reliability. It is proposed to develop...

  13. Creep-rupture reliability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peralta-Duran, A.; Wirsching, P. H.

    1985-01-01

    A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

  14. Reliability of analog quantum simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarovar, Mohan [Sandia National Laboratories, Digital and Quantum Information Systems, Livermore, CA (United States); Zhang, Jun; Zeng, Lishan [Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Joint Institute of UMich-SJTU, Key Laboratory of System Control and Information Processing (MOE), Shanghai (China)

    2017-12-15

    Analog quantum simulators (AQS) will likely be the first nontrivial application of quantum technology for predictive simulation. However, there remain questions regarding the degree of confidence that can be placed in the results of AQS since they do not naturally incorporate error correction. Specifically, how do we know whether an analog simulation of a quantum model will produce predictions that agree with the ideal model in the presence of inevitable imperfections? At the same time there is a widely held expectation that certain quantum simulation questions will be robust to errors and perturbations in the underlying hardware. Resolving these two points of view is a critical step in making the most of this promising technology. In this work we formalize the notion of AQS reliability by determining sensitivity of AQS outputs to underlying parameters, and formulate conditions for robust simulation. Our approach naturally reveals the importance of model symmetries in dictating the robust properties. To demonstrate the approach, we characterize the robust features of a variety of quantum many-body models. (orig.)

  15. Reliability of clinical ICD-10 schizophrenia diagnoses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Klaus D; Frederiksen, Julie N; Hansen, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Concern has been expressed as to the reliability of clinical ICD-10 diagnosis of schizophrenia. This study was designed to assess the diagnostic reliability of the clinical ICD-10 diagnosis of schizophrenia in a random sample of Danish in- and outpatients with a history of psychosis. A sample...... value (87%) of ICD-10 schizophrenia and an overall good agreement between clinical and OPCRIT-derived diagnoses (kappa=0.60). An even higher positive predictive value was obtained when diagnoses were amalgamated into a diagnostic entity of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (98%). Near perfect agreement...... was seen between OPCRIT-derived ICD-10 and DSM-IV diagnoses (kappa=0.87). Thus, this study demonstrates high reliability of the clinical diagnosis of schizophrenia and even more so of the diagnosis of schizophrenia-spectrum disorder....

  16. Improvement of the reliability on nondestructive inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Sung Jin; Kim, Young H. [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Hyang Beom [Soongsil Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Young Kil [Kunsan National Univ., Gunsan (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Hyun Jo [Wonkwang Univ., Iksan (Korea, Republic of); Park, Ik Keun; Park, Eun Soo [Seoul Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2002-03-15

    Retaining reliabilities of nondestructive testing is essential for the life-time maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant. The nondestructive testing methods which are frequently used in the Nuclear Power Plant are eddy current testing for the inspection of steam generator tubes and ultrasonic testing for the inspection of weldments. In order to improve reliabilities of ultrasonic testing and eddy current testing, the subjects carried out in this study are as follows : development of BEM analysis technique for ECT of SG tube, development of neural network technique for the intelligent analysis of ECT flaw signals of SG tubes, development of RFECT technology for the inspection of SG tube, FEM analysis of ultrasonic scattering field, evaluation of statistical reliability of PD-RR test of ultrasonic testing and development of multi-Gaussian beam modeling technique to predict accurate signal of signal beam ultrasonic testing with the efficiency in calculation time.

  17. CR reliability testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honeyman-Buck, Janice C.; Rill, Lynn; Frost, Meryll M.; Staab, Edward V.

    1998-07-01

    The purpose of this work was to develop a method for systematically testing the reliability of a CR system under realistic daily loads in a non-clinical environment prior to its clinical adoption. Once digital imaging replaces film, it will be very difficult to revert back should the digital system become unreliable. Prior to the beginning of the test, a formal evaluation was performed to set the benchmarks for performance and functionality. A formal protocol was established that included all the 62 imaging plates in the inventory for each 24-hour period in the study. Imaging plates were exposed using different combinations of collimation, orientation, and SID. Anthropomorphic phantoms were used to acquire images of different sizes. Each combination was chosen randomly to simulate the differences that could occur in clinical practice. The tests were performed over a wide range of times with batches of plates processed to simulate the temporal constraints required by the nature of portable radiographs taken in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Current patient demographics were used for the test studies so automatic routing algorithms could be tested. During the test, only three minor reliability problems occurred, two of which were not directly related to the CR unit. One plate was discovered to cause a segmentation error that essentially reduced the image to only black and white with no gray levels. This plate was removed from the inventory to be replaced. Another problem was a PACS routing problem that occurred when the DICOM server with which the CR was communicating had a problem with disk space. The final problem was a network printing failure to the laser cameras. Although the units passed the reliability test, problems with interfacing to workstations were discovered. The two issues that were identified were the interpretation of what constitutes a study for CR and the construction of the look-up table for a proper gray scale display.

  18. Ultimately Reliable Pyrotechnic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, John H.; Hinkel, Todd

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the methods by which NASA has designed, built, tested, and certified pyrotechnic devices for high reliability operation in extreme environments and illustrates the potential applications in the oil and gas industry. NASA's extremely successful application of pyrotechnics is built upon documented procedures and test methods that have been maintained and developed since the Apollo Program. Standards are managed and rigorously enforced for performance margins, redundancy, lot sampling, and personnel safety. The pyrotechnics utilized in spacecraft include such devices as small initiators and detonators with the power of a shotgun shell, detonating cord systems for explosive energy transfer across many feet, precision linear shaped charges for breaking structural membranes, and booster charges to actuate valves and pistons. NASA's pyrotechnics program is one of the more successful in the history of Human Spaceflight. No pyrotechnic device developed in accordance with NASA's Human Spaceflight standards has ever failed in flight use. NASA's pyrotechnic initiators work reliably in temperatures as low as -420 F. Each of the 135 Space Shuttle flights fired 102 of these initiators, some setting off multiple pyrotechnic devices, with never a failure. The recent landing on Mars of the Opportunity rover fired 174 of NASA's pyrotechnic initiators to complete the famous '7 minutes of terror.' Even after traveling through extreme radiation and thermal environments on the way to Mars, every one of them worked. These initiators have fired on the surface of Titan. NASA's design controls, procedures, and processes produce the most reliable pyrotechnics in the world. Application of pyrotechnics designed and procured in this manner could enable the energy industry's emergency equipment, such as shutoff valves and deep-sea blowout preventers, to be left in place for years in extreme environments and still be relied upon to function when needed, thus greatly enhancing

  19. Ferrite logic reliability study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, J. A.; Clark, C. B.

    1973-01-01

    Development and use of digital circuits called all-magnetic logic are reported. In these circuits the magnetic elements and their windings comprise the active circuit devices in the logic portion of a system. The ferrite logic device belongs to the all-magnetic class of logic circuits. The FLO device is novel in that it makes use of a dual or bimaterial ferrite composition in one physical ceramic body. This bimaterial feature, coupled with its potential for relatively high speed operation, makes it attractive for high reliability applications. (Maximum speed of operation approximately 50 kHz.)

  20. Blade reliability collaborative :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashwill, Thomas D.; Ogilvie, Alistair B.; Paquette, Joshua A.

    2013-04-01

    The Blade Reliability Collaborative (BRC) was started by the Wind Energy Technologies Department of Sandia National Laboratories and DOE in 2010 with the goal of gaining insight into planned and unplanned O&M issues associated with wind turbine blades. A significant part of BRC is the Blade Defect, Damage and Repair Survey task, which will gather data from blade manufacturers, service companies, operators and prior studies to determine details about the largest sources of blade unreliability. This report summarizes the initial findings from this work.

  1. Development of a branching submaximal treadmill test for predicting VO2max.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swank, A M; Serapiglia, L; Funk, D; Adams, K J; Durham, M; Berning, J M

    2001-08-01

    This study determined the reliability and validity of a branching treadmill protocol in predicting VO2max. Thirty-seven, apparently healthy individuals (19 women and 18 men); volunteered to participate. On 2 separate testing days, each subject underwent maximal exercise testing using the protocol developed. Stepwise regression analysis indicated that the percentage of age-predicted maximum heart rate (APMHR) achieved at stage 3, speed and grade at stage 3, and APMHR accounted for 89% of the variance in VO2max. The 4 predictor variables were statistically significant (p VO2max for their clients outside the laboratory environment. Furthermore, our results indicate that using the proposed regression model is reliable and has received preliminary construct validity support.

  2. 数值模拟方法在地震预测研究中应用的初步探讨(Ⅱ)%PRELIMINARY STUDY ON APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL SIMULATION METHODS TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH(Ⅱ)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓志辉; 胡勐乾; 周斌; 陆远忠; 陶京玲; 马晓静; 姜辉; 李红

    2011-01-01

    With the advances in simulation techniques and understanding of geodynamic processes, numerical simulation is likely to play an increasingly important role in the research of seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction. In this paper,on the basis of the paper "A preliminary study on the application of numerical simulation methods to earthquake prediction research ( I ) " , the possible application of uncoordinated deformation analysis, Coulomb stress changes and earthquake probability modeling to the study of earthquake prediction is further discussed.When rock deforms from the elastic into the yield stage, the system is in a critical unstable state, the rock movement may deviate from the normal track and become complicated. The study results show that,before Wenan earthquake( Ms 5. 1 ) on July 4,2006, GPS velocity was well consistent with the numerical simulation speed in most areas of North China, while there were some differences in some regions, especially in the northeast of the North China Plain block, where big inconsistency in movement characteristics occurred, resulting perhaps from the preparation of Wenan earthquake.Research on earthquakes triggered by Coulomb stress change is a focus problem now. Numerical simulation may play an important role in the analysis of Coulomb stress changes. By constructing three-dimensional dynamic model, the effect of various factors on the value and distribution of Coulomb stress change can be simulated, and more realistic results can be obtained. By numerical simulation of Coulomb stress changes to seismic activities beneath Sichuan Zipingpu reservoirs, it is found that with the increase of reservoir water storage time,the pore pressure diffusion in the effective additional stress field will be gradually expanded to the range of more than 10km underground. The regional effective additional stress field and seismic activities show different characteristics in several typical regions.The United States Southern

  3. Load Control System Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trudnowski, Daniel [Montana Tech of the Univ. of Montana, Butte, MT (United States)

    2015-04-03

    This report summarizes the results of the Load Control System Reliability project (DOE Award DE-FC26-06NT42750). The original grant was awarded to Montana Tech April 2006. Follow-on DOE awards and expansions to the project scope occurred August 2007, January 2009, April 2011, and April 2013. In addition to the DOE monies, the project also consisted of matching funds from the states of Montana and Wyoming. Project participants included Montana Tech; the University of Wyoming; Montana State University; NorthWestern Energy, Inc., and MSE. Research focused on two areas: real-time power-system load control methodologies; and, power-system measurement-based stability-assessment operation and control tools. The majority of effort was focused on area 2. Results from the research includes: development of fundamental power-system dynamic concepts, control schemes, and signal-processing algorithms; many papers (including two prize papers) in leading journals and conferences and leadership of IEEE activities; one patent; participation in major actual-system testing in the western North American power system; prototype power-system operation and control software installed and tested at three major North American control centers; and, the incubation of a new commercial-grade operation and control software tool. Work under this grant certainly supported the DOE-OE goals in the area of “Real Time Grid Reliability Management.”

  4. Supply chain reliability modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugen Zaitsev

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Today it is virtually impossible to operate alone on the international level in the logistics business. This promotes the establishment and development of new integrated business entities - logistic operators. However, such cooperation within a supply chain creates also many problems related to the supply chain reliability as well as the optimization of the supplies planning. The aim of this paper was to develop and formulate the mathematical model and algorithms to find the optimum plan of supplies by using economic criterion and the model for the probability evaluating of non-failure operation of supply chain. Methods: The mathematical model and algorithms to find the optimum plan of supplies were developed and formulated by using economic criterion and the model for the probability evaluating of non-failure operation of supply chain. Results and conclusions: The problem of ensuring failure-free performance of goods supply channel analyzed in the paper is characteristic of distributed network systems that make active use of business process outsourcing technologies. The complex planning problem occurring in such systems that requires taking into account the consumer's requirements for failure-free performance in terms of supply volumes and correctness can be reduced to a relatively simple linear programming problem through logical analysis of the structures. The sequence of the operations, which should be taken into account during the process of the supply planning with the supplier's functional reliability, was presented.

  5. Reliability and Assessment Techniques on Ground Excavation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanga Tangchawal

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Planning and assessment on the excavation of the brittle materials (soil or rock can be done by using the machinery and/or explosives. The reliability assessment has been proposed to predict the failure of ground during excavation process. The stability planning on cutting soil (rock face by machinery can be compared between the deterministic and the statistical method. The risk of using explosives for rock excavation has to concern on the damage and environmental impacts after blasting events.

  6. OSS reliability measurement and assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Yamada, Shigeru

    2016-01-01

    This book analyses quantitative open source software (OSS) reliability assessment and its applications, focusing on three major topic areas: the Fundamentals of OSS Quality/Reliability Measurement and Assessment; the Practical Applications of OSS Reliability Modelling; and Recent Developments in OSS Reliability Modelling. Offering an ideal reference guide for graduate students and researchers in reliability for open source software (OSS) and modelling, the book introduces several methods of reliability assessment for OSS including component-oriented reliability analysis based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), analytic network process (ANP), and non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models, the stochastic differential equation models and hazard rate models. These measurement and management technologies are essential to producing and maintaining quality/reliable systems using OSS.

  7. Reliability and validity in research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Paula; Priest, Helena

    This article examines reliability and validity as ways to demonstrate the rigour and trustworthiness of quantitative and qualitative research. The authors discuss the basic principles of reliability and validity for readers who are new to research.

  8. Reliability and Its Quantitative Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru ISAIC-MANIU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article is made an opening for the software reliability issues, through wide-ranging statistical indicators, which are designed based on information collected from operating or testing (samples. It is developed the reliability issues also for the case of the main reliability laws (exponential, normal, Weibull, which validated for a particular system, allows the calculation of some reliability indicators with a higher degree of accuracy and trustworthiness

  9. 2017 NREL Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-15

    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Reliability Workshop (PVRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology -- both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  10. Testing for PV Reliability (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, S.; Bansal, S.

    2014-09-01

    The DOE SUNSHOT workshop is seeking input from the community about PV reliability and how the DOE might address gaps in understanding. This presentation describes the types of testing that are needed for PV reliability and introduces a discussion to identify gaps in our understanding of PV reliability testing.

  11. Requalification of offshore structures. Reliability analysis of platform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bloch, A.; Dalsgaard Soerensen, J. [Aalborg Univ. (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    A preliminary reliability analysis has been performed for an example platform. In order to model the structural response such that it is possible to calculate reliability indices, approximate quadratic response surfaces have been determined for cross-sectional forces. Based on a deterministic, code-based analysis the elements and joints which can be expected to be the most critical are selected and response surfaces are established for the cross-sectional forces in those. A stochastic model is established for the uncertain variables. The reliability analysis shows that with this stochastic model the smallest reliability indices for elements are about 3.9. The reliability index for collapse (pushover) is estimated to 6.7 and the reliability index for fatigue failure using a crude model is for the expected most critical detail estimated to 3.2, corresponding to the accumulated damage during the design lifetime of the platform. These reliability indices are considered to be reasonable compared with values recommended by e.g. ISO. The most important stochastic variables are found to be the wave height and the drag coefficient (including the model uncertainty related to estimation of wave forces on the platform). (au)

  12. Reliable Quantum Computers

    CERN Document Server

    Preskill, J

    1997-01-01

    The new field of quantum error correction has developed spectacularly since its origin less than two years ago. Encoded quantum information can be protected from errors that arise due to uncontrolled interactions with the environment. Recovery from errors can work effectively even if occasional mistakes occur during the recovery procedure. Furthermore, encoded quantum information can be processed without serious propagation of errors. Hence, an arbitrarily long quantum computation can be performed reliably, provided that the average probability of error per quantum gate is less than a certain critical value, the accuracy threshold. A quantum computer storing about 10^6 qubits, with a probability of error per quantum gate of order 10^{-6}, would be a formidable factoring engine. Even a smaller, less accurate quantum computer would be able to perform many useful tasks. (This paper is based on a talk presented at the ITP Conference on Quantum Coherence and Decoherence, 15-18 December 1996.)

  13. Electronics reliability calculation and design

    CERN Document Server

    Dummer, Geoffrey W A; Hiller, N

    1966-01-01

    Electronics Reliability-Calculation and Design provides an introduction to the fundamental concepts of reliability. The increasing complexity of electronic equipment has made problems in designing and manufacturing a reliable product more and more difficult. Specific techniques have been developed that enable designers to integrate reliability into their products, and reliability has become a science in its own right. The book begins with a discussion of basic mathematical and statistical concepts, including arithmetic mean, frequency distribution, median and mode, scatter or dispersion of mea

  14. 2016 TRI Preliminary Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    The TRI preliminary dataset includes the most current TRI data available and reflects toxic chemical releases and pollution prevention activities that occurred at TRI facilities during the 2016 calendar year.

  15. Hybrid reliability model for fatigue reliability analysis of steel bridges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹珊珊; 雷俊卿

    2016-01-01

    A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter characteristics of the model can be described as probabilistic and interval. The two-stage hybrid reliability model is given with a theoretical foundation and a solving algorithm to solve the hybrid reliability problems. The theoretical foundation is established by the consistency relationships of interval reliability model and probability reliability model with normally distributed variables in theory. The solving process is combined with the definition of interval reliability index and the probabilistic algorithm. With the consideration of the parameter characteristics of theS−N curve, the cumulative damage model with hybrid variables is given based on the standards from different countries. Lastly, a case of steel structure in the Neville Island Bridge is analyzed to verify the applicability of the hybrid reliability model in fatigue reliability analysis based on the AASHTO.

  16. Discrete Reliability Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    trials and that failures from individual failure modes are statistically independent and binomially distributed . The probability of success...such that p ∗ n is constant = λ, the binomial distribution approximates the Poisson distribution with parameter λ. 4.1.2 Unsurfaced Failure Modes Given...line (dark blue) is the result of numerical integration of beta and binomial distributions . It shows a theoretical prediction of the outcome of the 27

  17. Synthesis of Reliable Telecommunication Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dusan Trstensky

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In many application, the network designer may to know to senthesise a reliable telecommunication network. Assume that a network, denoted Gm,e has the number of nodes n and the number of edges e, and the operational probability of each edge is known. The system reliability of the network is defined to be the reliability that every pair of nodes can communicate with each other. A network synthesis problem considered in this paper is to find a network G*n,e, that maximises system reliability over the class of all networks for the classes of networks Gn,n-1, Gn,m and Gn,n+1 respectively. In addition an upper bound of maximum reliability for the networks with n-node and e-edge (e>n+2 is derived in terms of node. Computational experiments for the reliability upper are also presented. the results show, that the proposed reliability upper bound is effective.

  18. Mathematical reliability an expository perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Mazzuchi, Thomas; Singpurwalla, Nozer

    2004-01-01

    In this volume consideration was given to more advanced theoretical approaches and novel applications of reliability to ensure that topics having a futuristic impact were specifically included. Topics like finance, forensics, information, and orthopedics, as well as the more traditional reliability topics were purposefully undertaken to make this collection different from the existing books in reliability. The entries have been categorized into seven parts, each emphasizing a theme that seems poised for the future development of reliability as an academic discipline with relevance. The seven parts are networks and systems; recurrent events; information and design; failure rate function and burn-in; software reliability and random environments; reliability in composites and orthopedics, and reliability in finance and forensics. Embedded within the above are some of the other currently active topics such as causality, cascading, exchangeability, expert testimony, hierarchical modeling, optimization and survival...

  19. Failure database and tools for wind turbine availability and reliability analyses. The application of reliability data for selected wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor; Christensen, P.; Winther-Jensen, M.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this project was to develop and establish a database for collecting reliability and reliability-related data, for assessing the reliability of wind turbine components and subsystems and wind turbines as a whole, as well as for assessingwind turbine availability while ranking...... the contributions at both the component and system levels. The project resulted in a software package combining a failure database with programs for predicting WTB availability and the reliability of all thecomponents and systems, especially the safety system. The report consists of a description of the theoretical...... foundation of the reliability and availability analyses and of sections devoted to the development of the WTB reliability models as well as adescription of the features of the database and software developed. The project comprises analysis of WTBs NM 600/44, 600/48, 750/44 and 750/48, all of which have...

  20. Reliability studies of diagnostic methods in Indian traditional Ayurveda medicine: An overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon; Prasad, Ramjee

    2013-04-01

    Recently, a need to develop supportive new scientific evidence for contemporary Ayurveda has emerged. One of the research objectives is an assessment of the reliability of diagnoses and treatment. Reliability is a quantitative measure of consistency. It is a crucial issue in classification (such as prakriti classification), method development (pulse diagnosis), quality assurance for diagnosis and treatment and in the conduct of clinical studies. Several reliability studies are conducted in western medicine. The investigation of the reliability of traditional Chinese, Japanese and Sasang medicine diagnoses is in the formative stage. However, reliability studies in Ayurveda are in the preliminary stage. In this paper, examples are provided to illustrate relevant concepts of reliability studies of diagnostic methods and their implication in practice, education, and training. An introduction to reliability estimates and different study designs and statistical analysis is given for future studies in Ayurveda.

  1. Is quantitative electromyography reliable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecere, F; Ruf, S; Pancherz, H

    1996-01-01

    The reliability of quantitative electromyography (EMG) of the masticatory muscles was investigated in 14 subjects without any signs or symptoms of temporomandibular disorders. Integrated EMG activity from the anterior temporalis and masseter muscles was recorded bilaterally by means of bipolar surface electrodes during chewing and biting activities. In the first experiment, the influence of electrode relocation was investigated. No influence of electrode relocation on the recorded EMG signal could be detected. In a second experiment, three sessions of EMG recordings during five different chewing and biting activities were performed in the morning (I); 1 hour later without intermediate removal of the electrodes (II); and in the afternoon, using new electrodes (III). The method errors for different time intervals (I-II and I-III errors) for each muscle and each function were calculated. Depending on the time interval between the EMG recordings, the muscles considered, and the function performed, the individual errors ranged from 5% to 63%. The method error increased significantly (P masseter (mean 27.2%) was higher than for the temporalis (mean 20.0%). The largest function error was found during maximal biting in intercuspal position (mean 23.1%). Based on the findings, quantitative electromyography of the masticatory muscles seems to have a limited value in diagnostics and in the evaluation of individual treatment results.

  2. Design and preliminary validation of a tool for the simulation of train braking performance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Luca Pugi; Monica Malvezzi; Susanna Papini; Gregorio Vettori

    2013-01-01

    Train braking performance is important for the safety and reliability of railway systems. The availability of a tool that allows evaluating such performance on the basis of the main train features can be useful for train system designers to choose proper dimensions for and optimize train’s subsystems. This paper presents a modular tool for the prediction of train braking performance, with a par-ticular attention to the accurate prediction of stopping distances. The tool takes into account different loading and operating conditions, in order to verify the safety require-ments prescribed by European technical specifications for interoperability of high-speed trains and the corresponding EN regulations. The numerical results given by the tool were verified and validated by comparison with experi-mental data, considering as benchmark case an Ansaldo EMU V250 train-a European high-speed train-currently developed for Belgium and Netherlands high-speed lines, on which technical information and experimental data directly recorded during the preliminary tests were avail-able. An accurate identification of the influence of the braking pad friction factor on braking performances allowed obtaining reliable results.

  3. Prediction of induced vibrations for a passenger - car ferry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crudu, L.; Neculet, O.; Marcu, O.

    2016-08-01

    In order to evaluate the ship hull global vibrations, propeller excitation must be properly considered being mandatory to know enough accurate the magnitude of the induced hull pressure impulses. During the preliminary design stages, the pressures induced on the aft part of the ship by the operating propeller can be evaluated based on the guidelines given by the international standards or by the provisions of the Classification Societies. These approximate formulas are taking into account the wake field which, unfortunately, can be only estimated unless experimental towing tank tests are carried out. Another possibility is the numerical evaluation with different Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes. However, CFD methods are not always easy to be used requiring an accurate description of the hull forms in the aft part of the ship. The present research underlines these aspects during the preliminary prediction of propeller induced vibrations for a double-ended passenger-car ferry propelled by two azimuth fixed pitch thrusters placed at both ends of the ship. The evaluation of the global forced vibration is performed considering the 3D global Finite Element (FE) model, with NX Nastran for Windows. Based on the presented results, the paper provides reliable information to be used during the preliminary design stages.

  4. A comparative study on the HW reliability assessment methods for digital I and C equipment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Lee, G. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea); Kim, M. C. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea); Jun, S. T. [KHNP, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    It is necessary to predict or to evaluate the reliability of electronic equipment for the probabilistic safety analysis of digital instrument and control equipment. But most databases for the reliability prediction have no data for the up-to-date equipment and the failure modes are not classified. The prediction results for the specific component show different values according to the methods and databases. For boards and systems each method shows different values than others also. This study is for reliability prediction of PDC system for Wolsong NPP1 as a digital I and C equipment. Various reliability prediction methods and failure databases are used in calculation of the reliability to compare the effects of sensitivity and accuracy of each model and database. Many considerations for the reliability assessment of digital systems are derived with the results of this study. 14 refs., 19 figs., 15 tabs. (Author)

  5. Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

    In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

  6. Antisocial personality disorder and psychopathy in women: a literature review on the reliability and validity of assessment instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Mairead; Völlm, Birgit

    2009-01-01

    Crime rates are low in women compared to men. The two disorders most commonly associated with offending behaviour, antisocial personality disorder (ASPD) and psychopathy, are also less prevalent in female samples. However, developments in forensic psychiatry have often ignored gender, and the utility of constructs such as psychopathy and their assessment instruments in female samples remains unclear. This article presents a review of studies looking at rates of ASPD and psychopathy and on the reliability and validity of assessment instruments of these disorders in women. Gender differences in symptom patterns will be considered. The literature seems to suggest that DSM-IV criteria for ASPD may lead to an underestimation of the prevalence of the disorder in women due to the requirement of childhood conduct disorder symptoms. The Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) is a valid and reliable instrument to identify psychopathy in women but there are gender differences in the factor structure and item loadings on this measure. Research to date seems to suggest a three-factor model may be most strongly supported in females. Preliminary evidence suggests the PCL-R may have some value in predicting future offending while the PCL:SV may be useful in predicting institutional violence. Clinical implications are discussed.

  7. The challenge of reliability in MEMS commercialization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, W.M.; Tanner, D.M.; Miller, S.L.

    1998-09-01

    MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) that think, sense, act and communicate will open up a broad new array of cost-effective solutions only if MEMS is demonstrated to be sufficiently reliable. This could prove to be a major challenge if it is not addressed concurrently with technology development. There are three requirements for a valid assessment of reliability: statistical significance, identification of fundamental failure mechanisms and development of techniques for accelerating them, and valid physical models to allow prediction of failures during actual use. While these already exist for the microelectronics portion of such integrated systems, the real challenge lies in the less well-understood micromachine portions and its synergistic effects with microelectronics. This requires the elicitation of a methodology focused on MEMS reliability, which the authors discuss. A new testing and analysis infrastructure must also be developed to meet the needs of this methodology. They describe their implementation of this infrastructure and its success in addressing the three requirements for a valid reliability assessment.

  8. Human reliability analysis of control room operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo Victor R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    Human reliability is the probability that a person correctly performs some system required action in a required time period and performs no extraneous action that can degrade the system Human reliability analysis (HRA) is the analysis, prediction and evaluation of work-oriented human performance using some indices as human error likelihood and probability of task accomplishment. Significant progress has been made in the HRA field during the last years, mainly in nuclear area. Some first-generation HRA methods were developed, as THERP (Technique for human error rate prediction). Now, an array of called second-generation methods are emerging as alternatives, for instance ATHEANA (A Technique for human event analysis). The ergonomics approach has as tool the ergonomic work analysis. It focus on the study of operator's activities in physical and mental form, considering at the same time the observed characteristics of operator and the elements of the work environment as they are presented to and perceived by the operators. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology to analyze the human reliability of the operators of industrial plant control room, using a framework that includes the approach used by ATHEANA, THERP and the work ergonomics analysis. (author)

  9. Reliability Assessment Of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Reduction of cost of energy for wind turbines are very important in order to make wind energy competitive compared to other energy sources. Therefore the turbine components should be designed to have sufficient reliability but also not be too costly (and safe). This paper presents models...... for uncertainty modeling and reliability assessment of especially the structural components such as tower, blades, substructure and foundation. But since the function of a wind turbine is highly dependent on many electrical and mechanical components as well as a control system also reliability aspects...... of these components are discussed and it is described how there reliability influences the reliability of the structural components. Two illustrative examples are presented considering uncertainty modeling, reliability assessment and calibration of partial safety factors for structural wind turbine components exposed...

  10. Reliability engineering theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Birolini, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    This book shows how to build in, evaluate, and demonstrate reliability and availability of components, equipment, systems. It presents the state-of-theart of reliability engineering, both in theory and practice, and is based on the author's more than 30 years experience in this field, half in industry and half as Professor of Reliability Engineering at the ETH, Zurich. The structure of the book allows rapid access to practical results. This final edition extend and replace all previous editions. New are, in particular, a strategy to mitigate incomplete coverage, a comprehensive introduction to human reliability with design guidelines and new models, and a refinement of reliability allocation, design guidelines for maintainability, and concepts related to regenerative stochastic processes. The set of problems for homework has been extended. Methods & tools are given in a way that they can be tailored to cover different reliability requirement levels and be used for safety analysis. Because of the Appendice...

  11. Lithium battery safety and reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Samuel C.

    Lithium batteries have been used in a variety of applications for a number of years. As their use continues to grow, particularly in the consumer market, a greater emphasis needs to be placed on safety and reliability. There is a useful technique which can help to design cells and batteries having a greater degree of safety and higher reliability. This technique, known as fault tree analysis, can also be useful in determining the cause of unsafe behavior and poor reliability in existing designs.

  12. Reliable Signal Transduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollman, Roy

    Stochasticity inherent to biochemical reactions (intrinsic noise) and variability in cellular states (extrinsic noise) degrade information transmitted through signaling networks. We analyzed the ability of temporal signal modulation - that is dynamics - to reduce noise-induced information loss. In the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK), calcium (Ca(2 +)) , and nuclear factor kappa-B (NF- κB) pathways, response dynamics resulted in significantly greater information transmission capacities compared to nondynamic responses. Theoretical analysis demonstrated that signaling dynamics has a key role in overcoming extrinsic noise. Experimental measurements of information transmission in the ERK network under varying signal-to-noise levels confirmed our predictions and showed that signaling dynamics mitigate, and can potentially eliminate, extrinsic noise-induced information loss. By curbing the information-degrading effects of cell-to-cell variability, dynamic responses substantially increase the accuracy of biochemical signaling networks.

  13. Web server's reliability improvements using recurrent neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Rǎzvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we describe an interesting approach to error prediction illustrated by experimental results. The application consists of monitoring the activity for the web servers in order to collect the specific data. Predicting an error with severe consequences for the performance of a server (the...... usage, network usage and memory usage. We collect different data sets from monitoring the web server's activity and for each one we predict the server's reliability with the proposed recurrent neural network. © 2012 Taylor & Francis Group...

  14. Web server's reliability improvements using recurrent neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Rǎzvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we describe an interesting approach to error prediction illustrated by experimental results. The application consists of monitoring the activity for the web servers in order to collect the specific data. Predicting an error with severe consequences for the performance of a server (t...... usage, network usage and memory usage. We collect different data sets from monitoring the web server's activity and for each one we predict the server's reliability with the proposed recurrent neural network. © 2012 Taylor & Francis Group...

  15. EUPORIAS: plans and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buontempo, C.

    2013-12-01

    Recent advances in our understanding and ability to forecast climate variability have meant that skilful predictions are beginning to be routinely made on seasonal to decadal (s2d) timescales. Such forecasts have the potential to be of great value to a wide range of decision-making, where outcomes are strongly influenced by variations in the climate. In 2012 the European Commission funded EUPORIAS, a four year long project to develop prototype end-to-end climate impact prediction services operating on a seasonal to decadal timescale, and assess their value in informing decision-making. EUPORIAS commenced on 1 November 2012, coordinated by the UK Met Office leading a consortium of 24 organisations representing world-class European climate research and climate service centres, expertise in impacts assessments and seasonal predictions, two United Nations agencies, specialists in new media, and commercial companies in climate-vulnerable sectors such as energy, water and tourism. The poster describes the setup of the project, its main outcome and some of the very preliminary results.

  16. Investigation of reliability attributes and accelerated stress factors on terrestrial solar cells. Third annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lathrop, J.W.; Hartman, R.A.; Saylor, C.R.

    1981-01-01

    The third year of the accelerated reliability testing program concentrated on electrical measurement instrumentation and in modeling cell behavior in the second quadrant. In addition, some preliminary work was done on correlating cell color changes with electrical degradation. Not reported are results of continuing accelerated stress tests on state of the art cells. A number of new cells were added to the program, but not in time for sufficient data to be obtained, while the older cells are undergoing extended test periods and new data are not yet available on them. The all-digital, microprocessor controlled, short interval tester, which was designed and fabricated, has replaced the manual measurement procedure formerly used. This has improved measurement accuracy and repeatability, reduced measurement time, and through coordinated data management procedures, eliminated data errors. A complete description of the tester including schematics and software is given and its operating procedures described. A computer model, based on the thermal and electrical properties of the cells and encapsulating materials, was developed to relate cell temperature to electrical characteristics in the second quadrant. This model adequately predicted the behavior of both encapsulated and unencapsulated cells, although accurate temperature measurements on encapsulated cells were difficult to obtain. In addition, only cells of one type were used for comparison and other cell types may require different parameter values for fitting. Use of the model should permit the prediction of a cell's sensitivity to degradation in the second quadrant. The computer program is listed together with a description of its operation.

  17. Reliability analysis of ceramic matrix composite laminates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, David J.; Wetherhold, Robert C.

    1991-01-01

    At a macroscopic level, a composite lamina may be considered as a homogeneous orthotropic solid whose directional strengths are random variables. Incorporation of these random variable strengths into failure models, either interactive or non-interactive, allows for the evaluation of the lamina reliability under a given stress state. Using a non-interactive criterion for demonstration purposes, laminate reliabilities are calculated assuming previously established load sharing rules for the redistribution of load as the failure of laminae occur. The matrix cracking predicted by ACK theory is modeled to allow a loss of stiffness in the fiber direction. The subsequent failure in the fiber direction is controlled by a modified bundle theory. Results using this modified bundle model are compared with previous models which did not permit separate consideration of matrix cracking, as well as to results obtained from experimental data.

  18. A Reliability Generalization Study of the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beretvas, S, Natasha; Meyers, Jason L.; Leite, Walter L.

    2002-01-01

    Conducted a reliability generalization study of the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (D. Crowne and D. Marlowe, 1960). Analysis of 93 studies show that the predicted score reliability for male adolescents was 0.53, and reliability for men's responses was lower than for women's. Discusses the need for further analysis of the scale. (SLD)

  19. Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Flowerdew

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim to improve decision-making by predicting a set of possible outcomes. Ideally, these would provide probabilities which are both sharp and reliable. In practice, the models, data assimilation and ensemble perturbation systems are all imperfect, leading to deficiencies in the predicted probabilities. This paper presents an ensemble post-processing scheme which directly targets local reliability, calibrating both climatology and ensemble dispersion in one coherent operation. It makes minimal assumptions about the underlying statistical distributions, aiming to extract as much information as possible from the original dynamic forecasts and support statistically awkward variables such as precipitation. The output is a set of ensemble members preserving the spatial, temporal and inter-variable structure from the raw forecasts, which should be beneficial to downstream applications such as hydrological models. The calibration is tested on three leading 15-d ensemble systems, and their aggregation into a simple multimodel ensemble. Results are presented for 12 h, 1° scale over Europe for a range of surface variables, including precipitation. The scheme is very effective at removing unreliability from the raw forecasts, whilst generally preserving or improving statistical resolution. In most cases, these benefits extend to the rarest events at each location within the 2-yr verification period. The reliability and resolution are generally equivalent or superior to those achieved using a Local Quantile-Quantile Transform, an established calibration method which generalises bias correction. The value of preserving spatial structure is demonstrated by the fact that 3×3 averages derived from grid-scale precipitation calibration perform almost as well as direct calibration at 3×3 scale, and much better than a similar test neglecting the spatial relationships. Some remaining issues are discussed regarding the finite size of the output

  20. Preliminary results of steel containment vessel model test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luk, V.K.; Hessheimer, M.F. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Matsumoto, T.; Komine, K.; Arai, S. [Nuclear Power Engineering Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Costello, J.F. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1998-04-01

    A high pressure test of a mixed-scaled model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of a steel containment vessel (SCV), representing an improved boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark II containment, was conducted on December 11--12, 1996 at Sandia National Laboratories. This paper describes the preliminary results of the high pressure test. In addition, the preliminary post-test measurement data and the preliminary comparison of test data with pretest analysis predictions are also presented.

  1. UVISS preliminary visibility analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Betto, Maurizio

    1998-01-01

    The goal of this work is to obtain a preliminary assessment of the sky visibility for anastronomical telescope located on the express pallet of the International SpaceStation (ISS)} taking into account the major constraints imposed on the instrument by the ISSattitude and structure. Part of the w......The goal of this work is to obtain a preliminary assessment of the sky visibility for anastronomical telescope located on the express pallet of the International SpaceStation (ISS)} taking into account the major constraints imposed on the instrument by the ISSattitude and structure. Part...

  2. A discussion of system reliability and the relative importance of pumps and valves to overall system availability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poole, A.B. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1996-12-01

    An analysis was undertaken to establish preliminary trends for how component aging can effect failure rates for swing check valves, centrifugal pumps and motor operated valves. These failure rate trends were evaluated over time and linear aging rate models established. The failure rate models were then used with classic reliability theories to estimate reliability as a function of operating time. Reliability theory was also used to establish a simple system reliability model. Using the system model, the relative importance of pumps and valves to the overall system reliability were studied. Conclusions were established relative to overall system availability over time and the relative unavailabilities of the various components studied.

  3. CFD and comparisons for a pump as turbine: Mesh reliability and performance concerns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Fecarotta, A. Carravetta1 , H. M. Ramos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The need for saving energy in water supply systems has become one of the main concerns of system managers and it will become more important in a near future. New strategies must be developed and implemented in the major energy consumption systems like those for water supply. In drinking pipe systems the use of Pressure Reducing Valves (PRV as a dissipative device is the common way to uniform the pressure control through a localised head loss. The use of micro-turbines or pumps operating as turbines seem to be an alternative technical and environmental available solution to either control the pressure as well as to produce energy. Pumps as turbines (PAT could be a convenient choice, but a deep study of the machine in different operating conditions is necessary in order to prevent the water system from ruptures. This paper shows that semi-empirical parametrical models do not generally predict with precision the behaviour of a pump operating as a turbine, while CFD analysis could be a reliable tool to better understand the interaction between the hydromechanical equipment and the flow behaviour. Nevertheless the CFD calculation difficulty is generally very high and the minimum complexity of the CFD calculation mesh has been investigated, in order to perform faster and reliable simulations. Thus CFD calculations have been carried out to predict the turbine behaviour under different flow conditions and the performance curves have been obtained. Some calculations in unsteady state flow regimes have been led to investigate the response of the machine to a sudden discharge changing, as a preliminary study of the behaviour of a turbomachine installed in a water distribution system under water hammer situations.

  4. Reliability engineering theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Birolini, Alessandro

    2010-01-01

    Presenting a solid overview of reliability engineering, this volume enables readers to build and evaluate the reliability of various components, equipment and systems. Current applications are presented, and the text itself is based on the author's 30 years of experience in the field.

  5. The Validity of Reliability Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, G. M.

    1988-01-01

    Demonstrates that some commonly used indices can be misleading in their quantification of reliability. The effects are most pronounced on gain or difference scores. Proposals are made to avoid sources of invalidity by using a procedure to assess reliability in terms of upper and lower limits for the true scores of each examinee. (Author/JDH)

  6. Software Reliability through Theorem Proving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.G.K. Murthy

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Improving software reliability of mission-critical systems is widely recognised as one of the major challenges. Early detection of errors in software requirements, designs and implementation, need rigorous verification and validation techniques. Several techniques comprising static and dynamic testing approaches are used to improve reliability of mission critical software; however it is hard to balance development time and budget with software reliability. Particularly using dynamic testing techniques, it is hard to ensure software reliability, as exhaustive testing is not possible. On the other hand, formal verification techniques utilise mathematical logic to prove correctness of the software based on given specifications, which in turn improves the reliability of the software. Theorem proving is a powerful formal verification technique that enhances the software reliability for missioncritical aerospace applications. This paper discusses the issues related to software reliability and theorem proving used to enhance software reliability through formal verification technique, based on the experiences with STeP tool, using the conventional and internationally accepted methodologies, models, theorem proving techniques available in the tool without proposing a new model.Defence Science Journal, 2009, 59(3, pp.314-317, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.59.1527

  7. Reliability engineering in RF CMOS

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    In this thesis new developments are presented for reliability engineering in RF CMOS. Given the increase in use of CMOS technology in applications for mobile communication, also the reliability of CMOS for such applications becomes increasingly important. When applied in these applications, CMOS is typically referred to as RF CMOS, where RF stands for radio frequencies.

  8. Reliability in automotive ethernet networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soares, Fabio L.; Campelo, Divanilson R.; Yan, Ying;

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of in-vehicle communication networks and addresses the challenges of providing reliability in automotive Ethernet in particular.......This paper provides an overview of in-vehicle communication networks and addresses the challenges of providing reliability in automotive Ethernet in particular....

  9. Estimation of Bridge Reliability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    In this paper it is shown how the so-called reliability distributions can be estimated using crude Monte Carlo simulation. The main purpose is to demonstrate the methodology. Therefor very exact data concerning reliability and deterioration are not needed. However, it is intended in the paper to ...

  10. Modified Bayesian Kriging for Noisy Response Problems for Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    surrogate model is used to do the MCS prediction for the reliability analysis for the sampling- based reliability-based design optimization ( RBDO ) method...D., Choi, K. K., Noh, Y., & Zhao, L. (2011). Sampling-based stochastic sensitivity analysis using score functions for RBDO problems with correlated...K., and Zhao, L., (2011). Sampling- based RBDO using the stochastic sensitivity analysis and dynamic Kriging method. Structural and

  11. Reliability estimation using kriging metamodel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Tae Min; Ju, Byeong Hyeon; Lee, Byung Chai [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Do Hyun [Korea Automotive Technology Institute, Chonan (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-08-15

    In this study, the new method for reliability estimation is proposed using kriging metamodel. Kriging metamodel can be determined by appropriate sampling range and sampling numbers because there are no random errors in the Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) model. The first kriging metamodel is made based on widely ranged sampling points. The Advanced First Order Reliability Method(AFORM) is applied to the first kriging metamodel to estimate the reliability approximately. Then, the second kriging metamodel is constructed using additional sampling points with updated sampling range. The Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) is applied to the second kriging metamodel to evaluate the reliability. The proposed method is applied to numerical examples and the results are almost equal to the reference reliability.

  12. Reliability-Based Code Calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, M.H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2003-01-01

    The present paper addresses fundamental concepts of reliability based code calibration. First basic principles of structural reliability theory are introduced and it is shown how the results of FORM based reliability analysis may be related to partial safety factors and characteristic values....... Thereafter the code calibration problem is presented in its principal decision theoretical form and it is discussed how acceptable levels of failure probability (or target reliabilities) may be established. Furthermore suggested values for acceptable annual failure probabilities are given for ultimate...... and serviceability limit states. Finally the paper describes the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) recommended procedure - CodeCal - for the practical implementation of reliability based code calibration of LRFD based design codes....

  13. Photovoltaic performance and reliability workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mrig, L. [ed.

    1993-12-01

    This workshop was the sixth in a series of workshops sponsored by NREL/DOE under the general subject of photovoltaic testing and reliability during the period 1986--1993. PV performance and PV reliability are at least as important as PV cost, if not more. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities, and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in the field were brought together to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this evolving field of PV reliability. The papers presented here reflect this effort since the last workshop held in September, 1992. The topics covered include: cell and module characterization, module and system testing, durability and reliability, system field experience, and standards and codes.

  14. Software Reliability, Measurement, and Testing. Volume 2. Guidebook for Software Reliability Measurement and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-04-01

    test experiments. Of the three static techniques, 200-4 SOFTWARE TEST TECHNIQUES ST Code Review A Error/ Anamoly Detection T I Structure...anomaly is an unforeseen event , which may not be detected by error-protection mechanisms in time to prevent system failure. The existence of extensive... event , the more difficult it is to make a meaningful prediction. As an example, it can be seen that the reliability of an electronic equipment is known

  15. Effectiveness of evaluating tumor vascularization using 3D power Doppler ultrasound with high-definition flow technology in the prediction of the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for T2 breast cancer: a preliminary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shia, Wei-Chung; Chen, Dar-Ren; Huang, Yu-Len; Wu, Hwa-Koon; Kuo, Shou-Jen

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of advanced ultrasound (US) imaging of vascular flow and morphological features in the prediction of a pathologic complete response (pCR) and a partial response (PR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for T2 breast cancer. Twenty-nine consecutive patients with T2 breast cancer treated with six courses of anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy were enrolled. Three-dimensional (3D) power Doppler US with high-definition flow (HDF) technology was used to investigate the blood flow in and morphological features of the tumors. Six vascularity quantization features, three morphological features, and two vascular direction features were selected and extracted from the US images. A support vector machine was used to evaluate the changes in vascularity after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and pCR and PR were predicted on the basis of these changes. The most accurate prediction of pCR was achieved after the first chemotherapy cycle, with an accuracy of 93.1% and a specificity of 85.5%, while that of a PR was achieved after the second cycle, with an accuracy of 79.31% and a specificity of 72.22%. Vascularity data can be useful to predict the effects of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Determination of changes in vascularity after neoadjuvant chemotherapy using 3D power Doppler US with HDF can generate accurate predictions of the patient response, facilitating early decision-making.

  16. Final Report for the Virtual Reliability Realization System LDRD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DELLIN, THEODORE A.; HENDERSON, CHRISTOPHER L.; O' TOOLE, EDWARD J.

    2000-12-01

    Current approaches to reliability are not adequate to keep pace with the need for faster, better and cheaper products and systems. This is especially true in high consequence of failure applications. The original proposal for the LDRD was to look at this challenge and see if there was a new paradigm that could make reliability predictions, along with a quantitative estimate of the risk in that prediction, in a way that was faster, better and cheaper. Such an approach would be based on the underlying science models that are the backbone of reliability predictions. The new paradigm would be implemented in two software tools: the Virtual Reliability Realization System (VRRS) and the Reliability Expert System (REX). The three-year LDRD was funded at a reduced level for the first year ($120K vs. $250K) and not renewed. Because of the reduced funding, we concentrated on the initial development of the expertise system. We developed an interactive semiconductor calculation tool needed for reliability analyses. We also were able to generate a basic functional system using Microsoft Siteserver Commerce Edition and Microsoft Sequel Server. The base system has the capability to store Office documents from multiple authors, and has the ability to track and charge for usage. The full outline of the knowledge model has been incorporated as well as examples of various types of content.

  17. Reliability estimates for flawed mortar projectile bodies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cordes, J.A. [US Army ARDEC, AMSRD-AAR-MEF-E, Analysis and Evaluation Division, Fuze and Precision Armaments Technology Directorate, US Army Armament Research Development and Engineering Center, Picatinny Arsenal, NJ 07806-5000 (United States)], E-mail: jennifer.cordes@us.army.mil; Thomas, J.; Wong, R.S.; Carlucci, D. [US Army ARDEC, AMSRD-AAR-MEF-E, Analysis and Evaluation Division, Fuze and Precision Armaments Technology Directorate, US Army Armament Research Development and Engineering Center, Picatinny Arsenal, NJ 07806-5000 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    The Army routinely screens mortar projectiles for defects in safety-critical parts. In 2003, several lots of mortar projectiles had a relatively high defect rate, 0.24%. Before releasing the projectiles, the Army reevaluated the chance of a safety-critical failure. Limit state functions and Monte Carlo simulations were used to estimate reliability. Measured distributions of wall thickness, defect rate, material strength, and applied loads were used with calculated stresses to estimate the probability of failure. The results predicted less than one failure in one million firings. As of 2008, the mortar projectiles have been used without any safety-critical incident.

  18. Chapter 3: Photovoltaic Module Stability and Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, Dirk; Kurtz, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Profits realized from investment in photovoltaic will benefit from decades of reliable operation. Service life prediction through accelerated tests is only possible if indoor tests duplicate power loss and failure modes observed in fielded systems. Therefore, detailing and quantifying power loss and failure modes is imperative. In the first section, we examine recent trends in degradation rates, the gradual power loss observed for different technologies, climates and other significant factors. In the second section, we provide a summary of the most commonly observed failure modes in fielded systems.

  19. Predictive Model of Graphene Based Polymer Nanocomposites: Electrical Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manta, Asimina; Gresil, Matthieu; Soutis, Constantinos

    2017-04-01

    In this computational work, a new simulation tool on the graphene/polymer nanocomposites electrical response is developed based on the finite element method (FEM). This approach is built on the multi-scale multi-physics format, consisting of a unit cell and a representative volume element (RVE). The FE methodology is proven to be a reliable and flexible tool on the simulation of the electrical response without inducing the complexity of raw programming codes, while it is able to model any geometry, thus the response of any component. This characteristic is supported by its ability in preliminary stage to predict accurately the percolation threshold of experimental material structures and its sensitivity on the effect of different manufacturing methodologies. Especially, the percolation threshold of two material structures of the same constituents (PVDF/Graphene) prepared with different methods was predicted highlighting the effect of the material preparation on the filler distribution, percolation probability and percolation threshold. The assumption of the random filler distribution was proven to be efficient on modelling material structures obtained by solution methods, while the through-the -thickness normal particle distribution was more appropriate for nanocomposites constructed by film hot-pressing. Moreover, the parametrical analysis examine the effect of each parameter on the variables of the percolation law. These graphs could be used as a preliminary design tool for more effective material system manufacturing.

  20. Preliminary study of validity and reliability of family burden interview schedule of patients with eating disorder%进食障碍患者家庭负担会谈量表(FBIS)信度和效度的初步研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    戴新国

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To study validity and reliability of family burden interview schedule (FBIS) of patients with eating dis-order. Methods: 120 patients with eating disorder were measured and analyzed with FBIS. The reliability and validity of FBIS were e-valuated by internal consistency test, test-retest reliability, inter-rater reliability, content validity, parallel validity, experience validi-ty and the like. Results: The internal consistency of FBIS was very satisfactory, the value of Cronbach's α was 0. 8682 and the Spearman-Brown split-half coefficient was 0. 7181. The test-retest reliability coefficients for the FBIS were 0. 949 for the overall scale (P<0. 01) and 0. 807 to 0. 955 for the six domains (P<0. 01). The intraclass correlation coefficients of four inter-rater were 0. 9558 for the total scores (P<0. 01) and 0. 5769 to 0. 9794 for the six domains (P<0. 01). The relation between the FBIS and the SF-36 was examined using the Pearson correlation test. The total score for the FBIS was negatively correlated with SF-36 (Pearson correlation coefficient was -3. 00, P<0. 05). The content validity test was statistically significant. Conclusions: The validity and reliability of the family burden interview schedule are satisfied for evaluating family burden of the patients with eating disorder. It can be used in evalua-ting family burden of the patients with eating disorder.%目的::探讨家庭负担会谈量表(FBIS)在进食障碍患者的家庭负担评价中的信度和效度。方法:采用 FBIS 量表对120名进食障碍患者家属进行测量和分析,用内在一致性检验、重测信度、评定者信度、内容效度、平行效度、经验效度等指标对 FBIS 量表进行信度和效度的评定。结果:FBIS 量表具有良好的内在一致性,其 Cronbach's 系数α=0.8682;Spearman-Brown 奇偶分半系数 R=0.7181;重测信度较好,两次测量各维度的 Pearson 相关系数为0.807~0.955(P<0.01),总量表为0.949(P<0.01);4