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  1. Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

  2. Point-of-care testing on admission to the intensive care unit: lactate and glucose independently predict mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jan; Blobner, Manfred; Busch, Raymonde; Moser, Norman; Kochs, Eberhard; Luppa, Peter B

    2013-02-01

    The aim of the study was to retrospectively investigate whether parameters of routine point-of-care testing (POCT) predict hospital mortality in critically ill surgical patients on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Arterial blood analyses of 1551 patients on admission to the adult surgical ICU of the Technical University Munich were reviewed. POCT was performed on a blood gas analyser. The association between acid-base status and mortality was evaluated. Metabolic acidosis was defined by base excess (BE) lactate >50% of BE, anion gap (AG)-acidosis by AG >16 mmol/L, hyperchloraemic acidosis by chloride >115 mmol/L. Metabolic alkalosis was defined by BE ≥3 mmol/L. Logistic regression analysis identified variables independently associated with mortality. Overall mortality was 8.8%. Mortality was greater in male patients (p=0.012). Mean age was greater in non-survivors (p55 mm Hg (mortality 23.1%). Three hundred and seventy-seven patients presented with acidosis (mortality 11.4%), thereof 163 patients with lactic acidosis (mortality 19%). Mortality for alkalosis (174 patients) was 12.1%. Mean blood glucose level for non-survivors was higher compared to survivors (plactate, glucose, age, male gender as independent predictors of mortality. Lactate and glucose on ICU admission independently predict mortality. BE and AG failed as prognostic markers. Lactic acidosis showed a high mortality rate implying that lactate levels should be obtained on ICU admission. Prevalence of hyperchloraemic acidosis was low. Metabolic alkalosis was associated with an increased mortality. Further studies on this disturbance and its attendant high mortality are warranted.

  3. Osteoprotegerin independently predicts mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the CLARICOR trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerre, Mette; Hilden, Jørgen; Kastrup, Jens

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To elucidate the prognostic power of serum osteoprotegerin (OPG) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS: Serum OPG levels were measured in the CLARICOR trial cohort of 4063 patients with stable CAD on blood samples drawn at randomization. The follow-up was 2...... predictor for all-cause mortality. Importantly, OPG remained an independent predictor of mortality even after adjustment for both clinical and conventional cardiovascular risk markers (HR 2.5 [95% CI 1.6-3.9, p power as to all...

  4. Acute kidney injury and renal replacement therapy independently predict mortality in neonatal and pediatric noncardiac patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askenazi, David J; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Hamilton, Kiya; Cutter, Gary; Laney, Debbie; Kaslow, Richard; Georgeson, Keith; Barnhart, Douglas C; Dimmitt, Reed A

    2011-01-01

    To determine the independent impact of acute kidney injury (AKI) and renal replacement therapy (RRT) in infants and children who receive extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Despite continued expertise/technological advancement, patients who receive extracorporeal membrane oxygenation have high mortality. AKI and RRT portend poor outcomes independent of comorbidities and illness severity in several critically ill populations. Retrospective cohort study. The primary variables explored are AKI (categorical complication code for serum creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL or International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Revision 9 for acute renal failure), and RRT (complication/Current Procedural Terminology code for dialysis or hemofiltration). Multiple variables previously associated with mortality in this population were controlled, using logistic stepwise regression. Decision tree modeling was performed to determine optimal variables and cut points to predict mortality. Critically ill neonates (0-30 days old) and children (> 30 days but optimizing the timing/delivery of RRT may positively impact survival.

  5. Plasma levels of soluble CD14 independently predict mortality in HIV infection

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    Sandler, Netanya G; Wand, Handan; Roque, Annelys

    2011-01-01

    Chronic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is associated with intestinal permeability and microbial translocation that contributes to systemic immune activation, which is an independent predictor of HIV disease progression. The association of microbial translocation with clinical outcom...

  6. A new body shape index predicts mortality hazard independently of body mass index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y Krakauer

    Full Text Available Obesity, typically quantified in terms of Body Mass Index (BMI exceeding threshold values, is considered a leading cause of premature death worldwide. For given body size (BMI, it is recognized that risk is also affected by body shape, particularly as a marker of abdominal fat deposits. Waist circumference (WC is used as a risk indicator supplementary to BMI, but the high correlation of WC with BMI makes it hard to isolate the added value of WC.We considered a USA population sample of 14,105 non-pregnant adults (age ≥ 18 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2004 with follow-up for mortality averaging 5 yr (828 deaths. We developed A Body Shape Index (ABSI based on WC adjusted for height and weight: ABSI ≡ WC/(BMI(2/3height(1/2. ABSI had little correlation with height, weight, or BMI. Death rates increased approximately exponentially with above average baseline ABSI (overall regression coefficient of +33% per standard deviation of ABSI [95% confidence interval: +20%-+48%, whereas elevated death rates were found for both high and low values of BMI and WC. 22% (8%-41% of the population mortality hazard was attributable to high ABSI, compared to 15% (3%-30% for BMI and 15% (4%-29% for WC. The association of death rate with ABSI held even when adjusted for other known risk factors including smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, and serum cholesterol. ABSI correlation with mortality hazard held across the range of age, sex, and BMI, and for both white and black ethnicities (but not for Mexican ethnicity, and was not weakened by excluding deaths from the first 3 yr of follow-up.Body shape, as measured by ABSI, appears to be a substantial risk factor for premature mortality in the general population derivable from basic clinical measurements. ABSI expresses the excess risk from high WC in a convenient form that is complementary to BMI and to other known risk factors.

  7. Left ventricular global longitudinal strain is predictive of all-cause mortality independent of aortic stenosis severity and ejection fraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Arnold C T; Prihadi, Edgard A; Antoni, M Louisa; Bertini, Matteo; Ewe, See Hooi; Ajmone Marsan, Nina; Leung, Dominic Y; Delgado, Victoria; Bax, Jeroen J

    2017-07-28

    Left ventricular (LV) global longitudinal strain (GLS) may identify subclinical myocardial dysfunction in patients with aortic stenosis (AS). The aims of the present retrospective single centre study were to determine the independent prognostic value of LV GLS over LV ejection fraction (EF) and the role of LV GLS to further risk stratify severe AS patients before aortic valve replacement. A total of 688 patients (median age 72 years, 61.2% men) with mild (n = 130), moderate (n = 264) and severe AS (n = 294) were included. LV GLS was determined by 2D speckle tracking echocardiography. A total of 114 (16.6%) patients died before surgery during the study. When patients with severe AS and normal LVEF were dichotomized based on the median LV GLS value (-14.0%), patients with normal LVEF and 'preserved' LV GLS of ≤ -14% had significantly higher survival than patients with 'impaired' LV GLS of > -14%. There was no difference in survival between patients with normal LVEF but 'impaired' LV GLS ( > -14%) and patients with impaired LVEF (log-rank P = 0.34). LV GLS was independently associated with all-cause mortality on multivariable Cox regression analysis (hazard ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.26; P optimal timing of aortic valve replacement. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Seven-Day Mortality Can Be Predicted in Medical Patients by Blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory Rate, Loss of Independence, and Peripheral Oxygen Saturation (the PARIS Score)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Lassen, Annmarie Touborg; Knudsen, Torben

    2015-01-01

    university hospital and included all adult (≥15 years) patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the clinical variables that best predicted the endpoint. From this, we developed a simplified model that can be calculated without specialized tools or loss of predictive ability......-day mortality of acutely admitted medical patients using routinely collected variables obtained within the first minutes after arrival. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This observational prospective cohort study used three independent cohorts at the medical admission units at a regional teaching hospital and a tertiary...... associated with the endpoint (full model). Based on this, we developed a simple score (range 0-5), ie, the PARIS score, by dichotomizing the variables. The ability to identify patients at increased risk (discriminatory power and calibration) was excellent for all three cohorts using both models. For patients...

  9. Seven-day mortality can be predicted in medical patients by blood pressure, age, respiratory rate, loss of independence, and peripheral oxygen saturation (the PARIS score: a prospective cohort study with external validation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikkel Brabrand

    Full Text Available Most existing risk stratification systems predicting mortality in emergency departments or admission units are complex in clinical use or have not been validated to a level where use is considered appropriate. We aimed to develop and validate a simple system that predicts seven-day mortality of acutely admitted medical patients using routinely collected variables obtained within the first minutes after arrival.This observational prospective cohort study used three independent cohorts at the medical admission units at a regional teaching hospital and a tertiary university hospital and included all adult (≥ 15 years patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the clinical variables that best predicted the endpoint. From this, we developed a simplified model that can be calculated without specialized tools or loss of predictive ability. The outcome was defined as seven-day all-cause mortality. 76 patients (2.5% met the endpoint in the development cohort, 57 (2.0% in the first validation cohort, and 111 (4.3% in the second. Systolic blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory rate, loss of Independence, and peripheral oxygen Saturation were associated with the endpoint (full model. Based on this, we developed a simple score (range 0-5, ie, the PARIS score, by dichotomizing the variables. The ability to identify patients at increased risk (discriminatory power and calibration was excellent for all three cohorts using both models. For patients with a PARIS score ≥ 3, sensitivity was 62.5-74.0%, specificity 85.9-91.1%, positive predictive value 11.2-17.5%, and negative predictive value 98.3-99.3%. Patients with a score ≤ 1 had a low mortality (≤ 1%; with 2, intermediate mortality (2-5%; and ≥ 3, high mortality (≥ 10%.Seven-day mortality can be predicted upon admission with high sensitivity and specificity and excellent negative predictive values.

  10. Independent predictors of morbidity and mortality in blunt colon trauma.

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    Ricciardi, R; Paterson, C A; Islam, S; Sweeney, W B; Baker, S P; Counihan, T C

    2004-01-01

    We sought to determine the impact of (1) grade of the colon injury, (2) the formation of an ostomy, and (3) associated injuries on outcomes such as morbidity and mortality after blunt colon injuries. We retrospectively reviewed 16,814 cases of blunt abdominal trauma. Patients with colonic injuries were selected and charts reviewed for demographic, clinical, and outcomes data. Injuries were grouped by the Colon Injury Scale (grades I-V). Independent risk factors of morbidity included spine and lung injuries, as well as increased age. A higher grade of colon injury trended toward a significant association with intra-abdominal complications. Independent risk factors of mortality included liver, heart, and lung injuries, as well as intracerebral blood and female gender. The grade of colon injury, the formation of an ostomy, and management of the colon trauma did not independently predict increased intra-abdominal complications, morbidity, or mortality. These results indicate that patients afflicted with blunt colon trauma experience a high rate of morbidity and mortality from associated injuries and or increased age. Treatment regimens directed at these factors will be most helpful in reducing the high morbidity and mortality after blunt colon trauma. Factors such as ostomy formation and management strategy are not associated with increased morbidity or mortality after blunt colon trauma.

  11. Predicting mortality from human faces.

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    Dykiert, Dominika; Bates, Timothy C; Gow, Alan J; Penke, Lars; Starr, John M; Deary, Ian J

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether and to what extent mortality is predictable from facial photographs of older people. High-quality facial photographs of 292 members of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921, taken at the age of about 83 years, were rated in terms of apparent age, health, attractiveness, facial symmetry, intelligence, and well-being by 12 young-adult raters. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study associations between these ratings and mortality during a 7-year follow-up period. All ratings had adequate reliability. Concurrent validity was found for facial symmetry and intelligence (as determined by correlations with actual measures of fluctuating asymmetry in the faces and Raven Standard Progressive Matrices score, respectively), but not for the other traits. Age as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, was a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% confidence interval = 1.12-1.65) and remained significant even after controlling for concurrent, objectively measured health and cognitive ability, and the other ratings. Health as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, significantly predicted mortality (hazard ratio = 0.81, 95% confidence interval = 0.67-0.99) but not after adjusting for rated age or objectively measured health and cognition. Rated attractiveness, symmetry, intelligence, and well-being were not significantly associated with mortality risk. Rated age of the face is a significant predictor of mortality risk among older people, with predictive value over and above that of objective or rated health status and cognitive ability.

  12. Plasma growth differentiation factor-15 independently predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality as well as deterioration of kidney function in type 1 diabetic patients with nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lajer, Maria Stenkil; Jorsal, Anders; Tarnow, Lise

    2010-01-01

    Growth deferentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is involved in inflammation and apoptosis. Expression is induced in the heart in response to ischemia and in atherosclerotic plaques. The aim of this study was to investigate GDF-15 levels in relation to all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and mo...

  13. Two prospective studies found that elevated 2-hr glucose predicted male mortality independent of fasting glucose and HbA1c.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qiao, Q.; Dekker, J.M.; Vegt, F. de; Nijpels, G.; Nissinen, A.; Stehouwer, C.D.A.; Bouter, L.M.; Heine, R.J.; Tuomilehto, J.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To quantify the relative contribution of elevated 2-hr glucose, fasting glucose (FPG), and HbA1c to all-cause mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A joint analysis of two prospective studies with baseline glycemia measurements. RESULTS: The multivariate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs)

  14. Two prospective studies found that elevated 2-hr glucose predicted male mortality independent of fasting glucose and HbA1c

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qiao, Qing; Dekker, Jacqueline M; de Vegt, Femmie; Nijpels, Giel; Nissinen, Aulikki; Stehouwer, Coen D A; Bouter, Lex M; Heine, Robert J; Tuomilehto, Jaakko

    OBJECTIVE: To quantify the relative contribution of elevated 2-hr glucose, fasting glucose (FPG), and HbA1c to all-cause mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A joint analysis of two prospective studies with baseline glycemia measurements. RESULTS: The multivariate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs)

  15. Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

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    Anderegg, William R.L.; Flint, Alan L.; Huang, Cho-ying; Flint, Lorraine E.; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

    2015-01-01

    The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality1, 2, 3. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality4, 5. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  16. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  17. Prediction of mortality based on facial characteristics

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    Arnaud Delorme

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 seconds. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p < 0.004, two-tail. Statistically significant accuracy was independently obtained in 5 of the 12 participants. We also collected 32-channel electrophysiological recordings and observed a robust difference between images of deceased individuals correctly vs. incorrectly classified in the early event related potential at 100 ms post-stimulus onset. Our results support claims of individuals who report that some as-yet unknown features of the face predict mortality. The results are also compatible with claims about clairvoyance and warrants further investigation.

  18. Functional status and mortality prediction in community-acquired pneumonia.

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    Jeon, Kyeongman; Yoo, Hongseok; Jeong, Byeong-Ho; Park, Hye Yun; Koh, Won-Jung; Suh, Gee Young; Guallar, Eliseo

    2017-10-01

    Poor functional status (FS) has been suggested as a poor prognostic factor in both pneumonia and severe pneumonia in elderly patients. However, it is still unclear whether FS is associated with outcomes and improves survival prediction in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the general population. Data on hospitalized patients with CAP and FS, assessed by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale were prospectively collected between January 2008 and December 2012. The independent association of FS with 30-day mortality in CAP patients was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Improvement in mortality prediction when FS was added to the CRB-65 (confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age 65) score was evaluated for discrimination, reclassification and calibration. The 30-day mortality of study participants (n = 1526) was 10%. Mortality significantly increased with higher ECOG score (P for trend <0.001). In multivariable analysis, ECOG ≥3 was strongly associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted OR: 5.70; 95% CI: 3.82-8.50). Adding ECOG ≥3 significantly improved the discriminatory power of CRB-65. Reclassification indices also confirmed the improvement in discrimination ability when FS was combined with the CRB-65, with a categorized net reclassification index (NRI) of 0.561 (0.437-0.686), a continuous NRI of 0.858 (0.696-1.019) and a relative integrated discrimination improvement in the discrimination slope of 139.8 % (110.8-154.6). FS predicted 30-day mortality and improved discrimination and reclassification in consecutive CAP patients. Assessment of premorbid FS should be considered in mortality prediction in patients with CAP. © 2017 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

  19. Predicting the mortality in geriatric patients with dengue fever

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hung-Sheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Ye, Je-Chiuan; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Lin, Hung-Jung

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Geriatric patients have high mortality for dengue fever (DF); however, there is no adequate method to predict mortality in geriatric patients. Therefore, we conducted this study to develop a tool in an attempt to address this issue. We conducted a retrospective case–control study in a tertiary medical center during the DF outbreak in Taiwan in 2015. All the geriatric patients (aged ≥65 years) who visited the study hospital between September 1, 2015, and December 31, 2015, were recruited into this study. Variables included demographic data, vital signs, symptoms and signs, comorbidities, living status, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality. We investigated independent mortality predictors by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis and then combined these predictors to predict the mortality. A total of 627 geriatric DF patients were recruited, with a mortality rate of 4.3% (27 deaths and 600 survivals). The following 4 independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma [Glasgow Coma Scale: ≤8; adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 11.36; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.89–68.19], bedridden (AOR: 10.46; 95% CI: 1.58–69.16), severe hepatitis (aspartate aminotransferase >1000 U/L; AOR: 96.08; 95% CI: 14.11–654.40), and renal failure (serum creatinine >2 mg/dL; AOR: 6.03; 95% CI: 1.50–24.24). When we combined the predictors, we found that the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for patients with 1 or more predictors were 70.37%, 88.17%, 21.11%, and 98.51%, respectively. For patients with 2 or more predictors, the respective values were 33.33%, 99.44%, 57.14%, and 98.51%. We developed a new method to help decision making. Among geriatric patients with none of the predictors, the survival rate was 98.51%, and among those with 2 or more predictors, the mortality rate was 57.14%. This method is simple and useful, especially in an outbreak. PMID:28906367

  20. Comparison of the Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model with standard mortality prediction tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, M; Shetty, N; Gadekari, S; Thunga, G; Rao, K; Kunhikatta, V

    2017-07-01

    Severity or mortality prediction of nosocomial pneumonia could aid in the effective triage of patients and assisting physicians. To compare various severity assessment scoring systems for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in nosocomial pneumonia patients. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care university-affiliated hospital in Manipal, India. One hundred patients with nosocomial pneumonia, admitted in the ICUs who developed pneumonia after >48h of admission, were included. The Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model, developed in our hospital, was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Mortality Probability Model II (MPM 72  II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction (VAP-PIRO). Data and clinical variables were collected on the day of pneumonia diagnosis. The outcome for the study was ICU mortality. The sensitivity and specificity of the various scoring systems was analysed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and computing the area under the curve for each of the mortality predicting tools. NPMP, APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM 72  II, SOFA, and VAP-PIRO were found to have similar and acceptable discrimination power as assessed by the area under the ROC curve. The AUC values for the above scores ranged from 0.735 to 0.762. CPIS and MODS showed least discrimination. NPMP is a specific tool to predict mortality in nosocomial pneumonia and is comparable to other standard scores. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Vitamin D status predicts 30 day mortality in hospitalised cats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Titmarsh

    Full Text Available Vitamin D insufficiency, defined as low serum concentrations of the major circulating form of vitamin D, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25(OHD, has been associated with the development of numerous infectious, inflammatory, and neoplastic disorders in humans. In addition, vitamin D insufficiency has been found to be predictive of mortality for many disorders. However, interpretation of human studies is difficult since vitamin D status is influenced by many factors, including diet, season, latitude, and exposure to UV radiation. In contrast, domesticated cats do not produce vitamin D cutaneously, and most cats are fed a commercial diet containing a relatively standard amount of vitamin D. Consequently, domesticated cats are an attractive model system in which to examine the relationship between serum 25(OHD and health outcomes. The hypothesis of this study was that vitamin D status would predict short term, all-cause mortality in domesticated cats. Serum concentrations of 25(OHD, together with a wide range of other clinical, hematological, and biochemical parameters, were measured in 99 consecutively hospitalised cats. Cats which died within 30 days of initial assessment had significantly lower serum 25(OHD concentrations than cats which survived. In a linear regression model including 12 clinical variables, serum 25(OHD concentration in the lower tertile was significantly predictive of mortality. The odds ratio of mortality within 30 days was 8.27 (95% confidence interval 2.54-31.52 for cats with a serum 25(OHD concentration in the lower tertile. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that low serum 25(OHD concentration status is an independent predictor of short term mortality in cats.

  2. Validation of the mortality prediction equation for damage control ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , preoperative lowest pH and lowest core body temperature to derive an equation for the purpose of predicting mortality in damage control surgery. It was shown to reliably predict death despite damage control surgery. The equation derivation ...

  3. Is a sedentary lifestyle an independent predictor for hospital and early mortality after elective cardiac surgery?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noyez, L.; Biemans, I.; Verkroost, M.W.; Swieten, H.A. van

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates whether a sedentary lifestyle is an independent predictor for increased mortality after elective cardiac surgery. METHODS: Three thousand one hundred fifty patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery between January 2007 and June 2012 completed preoperatively the

  4. An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2017-05-22

    PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age

  5. Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

    2016-03-01

    Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Factors predicting mortality in elderly patients admitted to a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The median age was 70 years (interquartile range 67 - 75 years). The overall ICU mortality was 44.7%, and 64% of deaths occurred within 5 days of admission. On univariate analysis, the factors predicting mortality were alcohol misuse (p=0.09), pneumonia (p.0.001), shock (p=0.001), dehydration (p=0.007), urine output ...

  7. New social adaptability index predicts overall mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Barenbaum, Anna; Rodrigue, James; Rout, Preeti; Isaacs, Ross; Mukamal, Kenneth

    2011-08-01

    Definitions of underprivileged status based on race, gender and geographic location are neither sensitive nor specific; instead we proposed and validated a composite index of social adaptability (SAI). Index of social adaptability was calculated based on employment, education, income, marital status, and substance abuse, each factor contributing from 0 to 3 points. Index of social adaptability was validated in NHANES-3 by association with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Weighted analysis of 19,593 subjects demonstrated mean SAI of 8.29 (95% CI 8.17-8.40). Index of social adaptability was higher in Whites, followed by Mexican-Americans and then the African-American population (ANOVA, p adaptability with a strong association with mortality, which can be used to identify underprivileged populations at risk of death.

  8. Predicting exposure-response associations of ambient particulate matter with mortality in 73 Chinese cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Chen, Renjie; Kan, Haidong; Tong, Shilu

    2016-01-01

    Estimating the burden of mortality associated with particulates requires knowledge of exposure-response associations. However, the evidence on exposure-response associations is limited in many cities, especially in developing countries. In this study, we predicted associations of particulates smaller than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_1_0) with mortality in 73 Chinese cities. The meta-regression model was used to test and quantify which city-specific characteristics contributed significantly to the heterogeneity of PM_1_0-mortality associations for 16 Chinese cities. Then, those city-specific characteristics with statistically significant regression coefficients were treated as independent variables to build multivariate meta-regression models. The model with the best fitness was used to predict PM_1_0-mortality associations in 73 Chinese cities in 2010. Mean temperature, PM_1_0 concentration and green space per capita could best explain the heterogeneity in PM_1_0-mortality associations. Based on city-specific characteristics, we were able to develop multivariate meta-regression models to predict associations between air pollutants and health outcomes reasonably well. - Highlights: • The heterogeneity was examined in PM_1_0-mortality associations among Chinese cities. • Temperature, PM_1_0 and green space could best explain the heterogeneity. • PM_1_0-mortality associations were predicted for 73 Chinese cities. - This study provides a practical way to assess exposure-response associations and evaluate the burden of mortality in areas with insufficient data.

  9. Various scoring systems for predicting mortality in Intensive Care Unit

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-12-07

    Dec 7, 2015 ... Mortality rate was higher in patients admitted from wards other than surgery ... evaluate the predictability of various severity of illness scores, and ..... Livingston BM, MacKirdy FN, Howie JC, Jones R, Norrie JD. Assessment of.

  10. NT-pro-BNP is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, M; Gorst-Rasmussen, A; Schmidt, E B; Jorgensen, K A; Christensen, J H

    2009-04-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have an increased mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. Previous data have shown markedly elevated levels of NT-pro-BNP in patients with ESRD, while the prognostic value of elevated levels of NT-pro-BNP in patients with ESRD is largely unknown. The aim of the present study was to examine if the level of NT-pro-BNP predicts mortality in patients with ERSD and CVD. We prospectively followed 206 patients with ESRD and documented CVD. Levels of NT-pro-BNP were measured at baseline, and patients were followed for 2 years or until they reached the predefined endpoint of all-cause mortality. During follow-up, the total mortality was 44% (90/206). Patients who died were followed for a median of 314 days (interquartile range 179 - 530). Using Cox regression analysis, age, female sex, systolic blood pressure, dialysis efficiency and plasma levels of NT-pro-BNP were independent prognostic risk factors of mortality. In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis a cut off value for NT-pro-BNP was determined. Patients with values of NT-pro-BNP above 12.200 pg/ml had a 3 times higher risk of death than patients below the cut-off value (HR 3.05 95% CI 1.96 - 4.77, p pro-BNP, NT-pro-BNP is still an independent predictor of mortality and might add prognostic information in patients with ESRD and documented CVD.

  11. A Risk Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Suspected Myocarditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Duo; Zhao, Ruo-Chi; Gao, Wen-Hui; Cui, Han-Bin

    2017-04-05

    Myocarditis is an inflammatory disease of the myocardium that may lead to cardiac death in some patients. However, little is known about the predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis by establishing a risk prediction model. A retrospective study was performed to analyze the clinical medical records of 403 consecutive patients with suspected myocarditis who were admitted to Ningbo First Hospital between January 2003 and December 2013. A total of 238 males (59%) and 165 females (41%) were enrolled in this study. We divided the above patients into two subgroups (survival and nonsurvival), according to their clinical in-hospital outcomes. To maximize the effectiveness of the prediction model, we first identified the potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected myocarditis, based on data pertaining to previously established risk factors and basic patient characteristics. We subsequently established a regression model for predicting in-hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Finally, we identified the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality using our risk prediction model. The following prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis, including creatinine clearance rate (Ccr), age, ventricular tachycardia (VT), New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, gender and cardiac troponin T (cTnT), was established in the study: P = ea/(1 + ea) (where e is the exponential function, P is the probability of in-hospital death, and a = -7.34 + 2.99 × [Ccr model demonstrated that a Ccr prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. In addition, sufficient life support during the early stage of the disease might improve the prognoses of patients with

  12. Interpretable Topic Features for Post-ICU Mortality Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yen-Fu; Rumshisky, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Electronic health records provide valuable resources for understanding the correlation between various diseases and mortality. The analysis of post-discharge mortality is critical for healthcare professionals to follow up potential causes of death after a patient is discharged from the hospital and give prompt treatment. Moreover, it may reduce the cost derived from readmissions and improve the quality of healthcare. Our work focused on post-discharge ICU mortality prediction. In addition to features derived from physiological measurements, we incorporated ICD-9-CM hierarchy into Bayesian topic model learning and extracted topic features from medical notes. We achieved highest AUCs of 0.835 and 0.829 for 30-day and 6-month post-discharge mortality prediction using baseline and topic proportions derived from Labeled-LDA. Moreover, our work emphasized the interpretability of topic features derived from topic model which may facilitates the understanding and investigation of the complexity between mortality and diseases.

  13. Predictive Factors for Mortality and Morbidity of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manabu Shiraishi

    2012-04-01

    Conclusions: Emergency open repair can be safely performed in patients for infrarenal rAAA. In particular, we identified specific independent predictive factors of clinical examination and laboratory studies for mortality, major morbidity and renal insufficiency. [Arch Clin Exp Surg 2012; 1(2.000: 94-101

  14. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Is a sedentary lifestyle an independent predictor for hospital and early mortality after elective cardiac surgery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyez, L; Biemans, I; Verkroost, M; van Swieten, H

    2013-10-01

    This study evaluates whether a sedentary lifestyle is an independent predictor for increased mortality after elective cardiac surgery. Three thousand one hundred fifty patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery between January 2007 and June 2012 completed preoperatively the Corpus Christi Heart Project questionnaire concerning physical activity (PA). Based on this questionnaire, 1815 patients were classified as active and 1335 patients were classified as sedentary. The endpoints of the study were hospital mortality and early mortality. The study population had a mean age of 69.7 ± 10.1 (19-95) years and a mean logistic EuroSCORE risk of 5.1 ± 5.6 (0.88-73.8). Sedentary patients were significantly older (p = 0.001), obese (p = 0.001), had a higher EuroSCORE risk (p = 0.001), and a higher percentage of complications. Hospital mortality (1.1 % versus 0.4 % (p = 0.014)) and early mortality (1.5 % versus 0.6 % (p = 0.006)) were significantly higher in the sedentary group compared with the active group. However, a sedentary lifestyle was not identified as an independent predictor for hospital mortality (p = 0.61) or early mortality (p = 0.70). Sedentary patients were older, obese and had a higher EuroSCORE risk. They had significantly more postoperative complications, higher hospital mortality and early mortality. Despite these results, sedentary behaviour could not be identified as an independent predictor for hospital or early mortality.

  16. Poor Semen Quality Predicts Increased Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tina Kold; Bostofte, Erik; Jacobsen, Rune

    Objective: Over recent decades a possible decrease in semen quality and an increase in the incidence of testicular cancer have been reported. In addition, men with poor semen quality have been reported to be at increased risk of developing testicular cancer whereas the risk of other cancers...... is not increased. The long-term survival of men with poor semen quality is, however, unknown. We therefore studied the associations between semen characteristics and subsequent mortality. Back to Top Material and Methods: The Copenhagen Sperm Analysis Laboratory is one of several public semen analysis laboratories...... in Denmark and examines semen samples mostly from men in the area of Copenhagen. Men are referred to the clinic by general practitioners and urologists, and the investigations are paid for through the public health system. A total of 34.442 men had a semen analysis done at the laboratory during 1963 to 1995...

  17. Anxiety Predicts Mortality in ICD Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kikkenborg Berg, Selina; Caspar Thygesen, Lau; Hastrup Svendsen, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although highly effective in preventing arrhythmic death, patients receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) may still experience psychological difficulties such as anxiety, depression, and reduced quality of life. The objectives of this study were to describe patient...... receiving ICD between January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 (n = 499). The following instruments were used: SF-36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, HeartQoL, EQ-5D, and the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory. RESULTS: The response rate was 72%. Mean age was 65.5 years and 82% patients were males. Fifty...... of perceived health, quality of life, and fatigue; for example, physical health 39.8 versus 44.3 points, compared to secondary prevention indication. Anxiety, poor perceived health, fatigue, and low quality of life were all predictors of mortality, anxiety being the strongest with an adjusted odds ratio of 4...

  18. Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

    2015-08-01

    Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  19. Syndecan-4 Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause as Well as Cardiovascular Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej J Jaroszyński

    Full Text Available Left ventricular hypertrophy is associated withincreased mortality in hemodialysis (HD patients.Syndecan-4 plays a role in many processes that are involved in the heart fibrosis and hypertrophy.We designed this study to prospectively determine whether syndecan-4 was predictive of mortality in a group of HD patients.In total, 191 HD patients were included. Clinical, biochemical and echocardiographic parameters were recorded. HD patients were followed-up for 23.18 ± 4.02 months.Syndecan-4 levels correlated strongly with geometrical echocardiographic parameters and ejection fraction. Relations with pressure-related parameters were weak and only marginally significant. Using the receiver operating characteristics the optimal cut-off points in predicting all-cause as well as cardiovascular (CV mortality were evaluated and patients were divided into low and high syndecan-4 groups. A Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the cumulative incidences of all-cause as well as CV mortality were higher in high serum syndecan-4 group compared with those with low serum syndecan-4 (p<0.001 in both cases.A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed syndecan-4 concentration to be an independent and significant predictor of all-cause (hazard ratio, 2.99; confidence interval, 2.34 to 3.113; p<0.001as well as CV mortality (hazard ratio, 2.81;confidence interval, 2.28to3.02; p<0.001.Serum syndecan-4 concentration reflects predominantly geometrical echocardiographic parameters. In HD patients serum syndecan-4 concentration is independently associated with all-cause as well as CV mortality.

  20. Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and elevated serum creatinine predict mortality in geriatric patients with fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Min-Hsien; Chu, Feng-Yuan; Yang, Tzu-Meng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Chen, Jiann-Hwa; Guo, How-Ran; Vong, Si-Chon; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin

    2015-07-01

    The geriatric population (aged ≥65 years) accounts for 12-24% of all emergency department (ED) visits. Of them, 10% have a fever, 70-90% will be admitted and 7-10% of will die within a month. Therefore, mortality prediction and appropriate disposition after ED treatment are of great concern for geriatric patients with fever. We tried to identify independent mortality predictors of geriatric patients with fever, and combine these predictors to predict their mortality. We enrolled consecutive geriatric patients visiting the ED between 1 June and 21 July 2010 with the following criteria of fever: a tympanic temperature ≥37.2°C or a baseline temperature elevated ≥1.3°C. We used 30-day mortality as the primary end-point. A total of 330 patients were enrolled. Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and serum creatinine >2 mg/dL, but not age, were independently associated with 30-day mortality. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) ranged from 18.2% to 90.9%, 34.7% to 100%, 9.0% to 100% and 94.5% to 98.2%, respectively, depending on how many predictors there were. The 30-day mortality increased with the number of independent mortality predictors. With at least four predictors, 100% of the patients died within 30 days. With none of the predictors, just 1.8% died. These findings might help physicians make decisions about geriatric patients with fever. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  1. Measured glomerular filtration rate does not improve prediction of mortality by cystatin C and creatinine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundin, Per-Ola; Sjöström, Per; Jones, Ian; Olsson, Lovisa A; Udumyan, Ruzan; Grubb, Anders; Lindström, Veronica; Montgomery, Scott

    2017-04-01

    Cystatin C may add explanatory power for associations with mortality in combination with other filtration markers, possibly indicating pathways other than glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, this has not been firmly established since interpretation of associations independent of measured GFR (mGFR) is limited by potential multicollinearity between markers of GFR. The primary aim of this study was to assess associations between cystatin C and mortality, independent of mGFR. A secondary aim was to evaluate the utility of combining cystatin C and creatinine to predict mortality risk. Cox regression was used to assess the associations of cystatin C and creatinine with mortality in 1157 individuals referred for assessment of plasma clearance of iohexol. Since cystatin C and creatinine are inversely related to mGFR, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 were used. After adjustment for mGFR, lower cystatin C - 1 (higher cystatin C concentration) and higher creatinine - 1 (lower creatinine concentration) were independently associated with increased mortality. When nested models were compared, avoiding the potential influence of multicollinearity, the independence of the associations was supported. Among models combining the markers of GFR, adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidity, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 combined explained the largest proportion of variance in associations with mortality risk ( R 2  = 0.61). Addition of mGFR did not improve the model. Our results suggest that both creatinine and cystatin C have independent associations with mortality not explained entirely by mGFR and that mGFR does not offer a more precise mortality risk assessment than these endogenous filtration markers combined. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  2. Magnitude of bacteraemia predicts one-year mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gradel, Kim Oren; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl; Søgaard, Mette

    Objectives: All hospitals in our region use the BacT/Alert® blood culture (BC) system with a 3-bottle BC set for adults. We hypothesized that the magnitude of bacteremia (i.e., number of positive bottles in the initial BC set) predicted one-year mortality. Methods In a population-based study we...... with a BC index of 1 (i.e., one positive bottle) were chosen as the reference group. We computed Kaplan-Meier curves and performed Cox regression analyses to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRRs) with 95 % confidence intervals [CIs] 30 and 365 days after the initial BC sampling date, first in crude analyses...... mortality....

  3. Multi-scale predictions of coniferous forest mortality in the northern hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our incomplete understanding of the fundamental physiological thresholds of vegetation mortality during drought limits our ability to accurately simulate future vegetation distributions and associated climate feedbacks. Here we integrate experimental evidence with models to show potential widespread loss of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET; ~ conifers) within the Southwest USA by 2100; with rising temperature being the primary cause of mortality. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ypd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, stomatal and hydraulic conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. Empirical and mechanistic models accurately predicted NET Ypd, and 91% of predictions (10/11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the 21st century due to temperature rise. Completely independent global models predicted >50% loss of northern hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the findings for Southwest USA. The global models disagreed with the ecosystem process models in regards to future mortality in Southwest USA, however, highlighting the potential underestimates of future NET mortality as simulated by the global models and signifying the importance of improving regional predictions. Taken together, these results from the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict global-scale conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  4. Cholecystokinin in plasma predicts cardiovascular mortality in elderly females

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, Jens P.; Rehfeld, Jens F; Alehagen, Urban

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Cholecystokinin (CCK) and gastrin are related gastrointestinal hormones with documented cardiovascular effects of exogenous administration. It is unknown whether measurement of endogenous CCK or gastrin in plasma contains information regarding cardiovascular mortality. METHODS......: Mortality risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Elderly patients in a primary care setting with symptoms of cardiac disease, i.e. shortness of breath, peripheral edema, and/or fatigue, were evaluated (n=470). Primary care patients were followed for 13years...... information was obtained from 4th quartile gastrin concentrations on 5-year cardiovascular mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: CCK in plasma is an independent marker of cardiovascular mortality in elderly female patients. The study thus introduces measurement of plasma CCK in gender-specific cardiovascular risk...

  5. Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

  6. Red Blood Cell Distribution Width is an Independent Predictor of AKI and Mortality in Patients in the Coronary Care Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yugang; Liu, Huilan; Fu, Shuai; Wan, Jing; Li, Xiaoning

    2017-01-01

    We investigated the hypothesis that RDW is an independent predictor of acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality in patients in the coronary care unit (CCU). In this prospective, observational study, we screened 412 adults admitted to the CCU at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1, 2014 to June 1, 2015. AKI was defined based on the KDIGO-AKI criteria. The survivors were followed up for up to 2 years after hospital discharge. The primary endpoint of the study was the incidence of AKI, while the secondary endpoints of the study were in-hospital mortality and 2-year mortality. RDW was significantly correlated with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHEII) score, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, inflammatory marker levels, nutrition and renal function at the time of CCU admission. The incidence of AKI was much higher in the high RDW group (RDW ≥14.0%) than in the low RDW group, a finding that was confirmed by multivariable logistic regression, which showed that RDW was independently associated with the incidence of AKI (odds ratio (OR), 1.059, 95% coincidence interval (95% CI), 1.024-1.095, P=0.001). A total of 61 patients died during their hospital stay, and baseline RDW was also an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio (HR), 1.129, 95% CI 1.005-1.268, P=0.041). Patients with a high RDW exhibited significantly higher 2-year mortality than patients with a low RDW during a median follow-up period of 19.8 months (P<0.001), and RDW independently predicted the risk of 2-year mortality (HR, 1.189, 95% CI 1.045 to 1.354, P=0.009) in the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis after adjustments for other clinical and laboratory variables. RDW is an independent predictor of AKI and mortality in patients in the CCU. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  7. Red Blood Cell Distribution Width is an Independent Predictor of AKI and Mortality in Patients in the Coronary Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yugang Hu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: We investigated the hypothesis that RDW is an independent predictor of acute kidney injury (AKI and mortality in patients in the coronary care unit (CCU. Methods: In this prospective, observational study, we screened 412 adults admitted to the CCU at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1, 2014 to June 1, 2015. AKI was defined based on the KDIGO-AKI criteria. The survivors were followed up for up to 2 years after hospital discharge. The primary endpoint of the study was the incidence of AKI, while the secondary endpoints of the study were in-hospital mortality and 2-year mortality. Results: RDW was significantly correlated with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHEII score, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, inflammatory marker levels, nutrition and renal function at the time of CCU admission. The incidence of AKI was much higher in the high RDW group (RDW ≥14.0% than in the low RDW group, a finding that was confirmed by multivariable logistic regression, which showed that RDW was independently associated with the incidence of AKI (odds ratio (OR, 1.059, 95% coincidence interval (95% CI, 1.024-1.095, P=0.001. A total of 61 patients died during their hospital stay, and baseline RDW was also an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio (HR, 1.129, 95% CI 1.005-1.268, P=0.041. Patients with a high RDW exhibited significantly higher 2-year mortality than patients with a low RDW during a median follow-up period of 19.8 months (P<0.001, and RDW independently predicted the risk of 2-year mortality (HR, 1.189, 95% CI 1.045 to 1.354, P=0.009 in the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis after adjustments for other clinical and laboratory variables. Conclusion: RDW is an independent predictor of AKI and mortality in patients in the CCU.

  8. Predicting in-hospital mortality after redo cardiac operations: development of a preoperative scorecard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launcelott, Sebastian; Ouzounian, Maral; Buth, Karen J; Légaré, Jean-Francois

    2012-09-01

    The present study generated a risk model and an easy-to-use scorecard for the preoperative prediction of in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing redo cardiac operations. All patients who underwent redo cardiac operations in which the initial and subsequent procedures were performed through a median sternotomy were included. A logistic regression model was created to identify independent preoperative predictors of in-hospital mortality. The results were then used to create a scorecard predicting operative risk. A total of 1,521 patients underwent redo procedures between 1995 and 2010 at a single institution. Coronary bypass procedures were the most common previous (58%) or planned operations (54%). The unadjusted in-hospital mortality for all redo cases was higher than for first-time procedures (9.7% vs. 3.4%; pscorecard was generated using these independent predictors, stratifying patients undergoing redo cardiac operations into 6 risk categories of in-hospital mortality ranging from risk to >40%. Reoperation represents a significant proportion of modern cardiac surgical procedures and is often associated with significantly higher mortality than first-time operations. We created an easy-to-use scorecard to assist clinicians in estimating operative mortality to ensure optimal decision making in the care of patients facing redo cardiac operations. Copyright © 2012 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Abdominal obesity in Japanese-Brazilians: which measure is best for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marselle Rodrigues Bevilacqua

    Full Text Available This study aimed to verify which anthropometric measure of abdominal obesity was the best predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Japanese-Brazilians. The study followed 1,581 subjects for 14 years. Socio-demographic, lifestyle, metabolic, and anthropometric data were collected. The dependent variable was vital status (alive or dead at the end of the study, and the independent variable was presence of abdominal obesity according to different baseline measures. The mortality rate was estimated, and Poisson regression was used to obtain mortality rate ratios with abdominal obesity, adjusted simultaneously for the other variables. The mortality rate was 10.68/thousand person-years. Male gender, age > 60 years, and arterial hypertension were independent risk factors for mortality. The results indicate that prevalence of abdominal obesity was high among Japanese-Brazilians, and that waist/hip ratio was the measure with the greatest capacity to predict mortality (especially cardiovascular mortality in this group.

  10. Association of sedentary time with mortality independent of moderate to vigorous physical activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annemarie Koster

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Sedentary behavior has emerged as a novel health risk factor independent of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA. Previous studies have shown self-reported sedentary time to be associated with mortality; however, no studies have investigated the effect of objectively measured sedentary time on mortality independent of MVPA. The objective our study was to examine the association between objectively measured sedentary time and all-cause mortality. METHODS: 7-day accelerometry data of 1906 participants aged 50 and over from the U.S. nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2004 were analyzed. All-cause mortality was assessed from the date of examination through December 31, 2006. RESULTS: Over an average follow-up of 2.8 years, there were 145 deaths reported. In a model adjusted for sociodemographic factors, lifestyle factors, multiple morbidities, mobility limitation, and MVPA, participants in third quartile (hazard ratio (HR:4.05; 95%CI:1.55-10.60 and fourth quartile (HR:5.94; 95%CI: 2.49-14.15 of having higher percent sedentary time had a significantly increased risk of death compared to those in the lowest quartile. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that sedentary behavior is a risk factor for mortality independent of MVPA. Further investigation, including studies with longer follow-up, is needed to address the health consequences of sedentary behavior.

  11. [Prediction of mortality in patients with acute hepatic failure].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eremeeva, L F; Berdnikov, A P; Musaeva, T S; Zabolotskikh, I B

    2013-01-01

    The article deals with a study of 243 patients (from 18 to 65 years old) with acute hepatic failure. Purpose of the study was to evaluate the predictive capability of severity scales APACHE III, SOFA, MODS, Child-Pugh and to identify mortality predictors in patients with acute hepatic failure. Results; The best predictive ability in patients with acute hepatic failure and multiple organ failure had APACHE III and SOFA scales. The strongest mortality predictors were: serum creatinine > 132 mmol/L, fibrinogen < 1.4 g/L, Na < 129 mmol/L.

  12. Association of sedentary time with mortality independent of moderate to vigorous physical activity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koster, Annemarie; Caserotti, Paolo; Patel, Kushang V

    2012-01-01

    Sedentary behavior has emerged as a novel health risk factor independent of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Previous studies have shown self-reported sedentary time to be associated with mortality; however, no studies have investigated the effect of objectively measured sedentary t...

  13. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.

    2016-03-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted >=50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  14. Outcome after hepatectomy-delirium as an independent predictor for mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veiga, Dalila; Luís, Clara; Parente, Daniela; Abelha, Fernando

    2013-02-02

    Most studies that follow up hepatectomy cases are limited in scope to an investigation of mortality and morbidity rates or the costs and length of hospital stay. In this study the authors aimed to characterize the quality of life and to evaluate mortality and its determinants after hepatectomy. This prospective study was carried in a Post-Anaesthesia Care Unit (PACU) over 15 months, and 70 patients submitted to hepatectomy were enrolled. Demographic and peri-operative characteristics were evaluated for associations with mortality. At admission and 6 months after discharge, patients completed a Short Form-36 questionnaire (SF-36) and have their independence in Activities of Daily Living (ADL) was evaluated. Binary and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate of associations with mortality, and the Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to compare SF-36 scores before and after 6 months after hepatectomy. The mortality rate was 19% at 6 months. Multivariate analysis identified postoperative delirium as an independent determinant for mortality. Six months after discharge, 46% patients stated that their health in general was better or much better than that 1 year previously. Six months after hepatectomy, patients had worse scores in the physical function domain of SF-36; however, scores for all the other domains did not differ. At this time point, patients were more dependent in instrumental ADL than before surgery (32% versus 7%, p = 0.027). This study identified postoperative delirium as an independent risk factor for mortality 6 months after hepatectomy. After 6 months, survivors were more dependent in instrumental ADL tasks and had worse scores in the physical function domain of SF-36.

  15. Bone Marrow Pathology Predicts Mortality in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hao Weng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A bone marrow biopsy is a useful procedure for the diagnosis and staging of various hematologic and systemic diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the findings of bone marrow studies can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients. Methods. Seventy-eight end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis underwent bone marrow biopsies between 2000 and 2011, with the most common indication being unexplained anemia followed by unexplained leukocytosis and leukopenia. Results. The survivors had a higher incidence of abnormal megakaryocyte distribution P=0.001, band and segmented cells P=0.021, and lymphoid cells P=0.029 than the nonsurvivors. The overall mortality rate was 38.5% (30/78, and the most common cause of mortality was sepsis (83.3% followed by respiratory failure (10%. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, both decreased (OR 3.714, 95% CI 1.671–8.253, P=0.001 and absent (OR 9.751, 95% CI 2.030–45.115, P=0.004 megakaryocyte distribution (normal megakaryocyte distribution as the reference group, as well as myeloid/erythroid ratio (OR 1.054, CI 1.012–1.098, P=0.011, were predictive of mortality. Conclusion. The results of a bone marrow biopsy can be used to assess the pathology, and, in addition, myeloid/erythroid ratio and abnormal megakaryocyte distribution can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients.

  16. Vitamin D deficiency is independently associated with mortality among critically ill patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Barberena Moraes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Studies suggest an association between vitamin D deficiency and morbidity/mortality in critically ill patients. Several issues remain unexplained, including which vitamin D levels are related to morbidity and mortality and the relevance of vitamin D kinetics to clinical outcomes. We conducted this study to address the association of baseline vitamin D levels and vitamin D kinetics with morbidity and mortality in critically ill patients. METHOD: In 135 intensive care unit (ICU patients, vitamin D was prospectively measured on admission and weekly until discharge from the ICU. The following outcomes of interest were analyzed: 28-day mortality, mechanical ventilation, length of stay, infection rate, and culture positivity. RESULTS: Mortality rates were higher among patients with vitamin D levels 12 ng/mL (32.2% vs. 13.2%, with an adjusted relative risk of 2.2 (95% CI 1.07-4.54; p< 0.05. There were no differences in the length of stay, ventilation requirements, infection rate, or culture positivity. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that low vitamin D levels on ICU admission are an independent risk factor for mortality in critically ill patients. Low vitamin D levels at ICU admission may have a causal relationship with mortality and may serve as an indicator for vitamin D replacement among critically ill patients.

  17. Predictive factors for mortality in Fournier' gangrene: a series of 59 cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Marín, Andrés; Turégano Fuentes, Fernando; Cuadrado Ayuso, Marta; Andueza Lillo, Juan Antonio; Cano Ballesteros, Juan Carlos; Pérez López, Mercedes

    2015-01-01

    Fournier's gangrene (FG) is the necrotizing fasciitis of the perineum and genital area and presents a high mortality rate. The aim was to assess prognostic factors for mortality, create a new mortality predictive scale and compare it with previously published scales in patients diagnosed with FG in our Emergency Department. Retrospective analysis study between 1998 and 2012. Of the 59 patients, 44 survived (74%) (S) and 15 died (26%) (D). Significant differences were found in peripheral vasculopathy (S 5 [11%]; D 6 [40%]; P=.023), hemoglobin (S 13; D 11; P=.014), hematocrit (S 37; D 31.4; P=.009), white blood cells (S 17,400; D 23,800; P=.023), serum urea (S 58; D 102; PFournier's gangrene severity index score (FGSIS) (S 4; D 7; P=.002) and Uludag Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index (UFGSI) (S 9; D 13; P=.004). Independent predictive factors were peripheral vasculopathy, serum potassium and severe sepsis criteria, and a model was created with an area under the ROC curve of 0.850 (0.760-0.973), higher than FGSIS (0.746 [0.601-0.981]) and UFGSI (0.760 [0.617-0.904]). FG showed a high mortality rate. Independent predictive factors were peripheral vasculopathy, potassium and severe sepsis criteria creating a predictive model that performed better than those previously described. Copyright © 2014 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  18. A Modified APACHE II Score for Predicting Mortality of Variceal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: Modified APACHE II score is effective in predicting outcome of patients with variceal bleeding. Score of L 15 points and long ICU stay are associated with high mortality. Keywords: liver cirrhosis, periportal fibrosis, portal hypertension, schistosomiasis udan Journal of Medical Sciences Vol. 2 (2) 2007: pp. 105- ...

  19. Probabilistic fuzzy prediction of mortality in intensive care units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fialho, A.T.S.; Kaymak, U.; Almeida, R.J.; Cismondi, F.; Vieira, S.M.; Reti, S.R.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.; Finkelstein, S.N.; Bouchon-Meunier, B.

    2012-01-01

    In the present work, we propose the application of probabilistic fuzzy systems (PFS) to model the prediction of mortality in septic shock patients. This technique is characterized by the combination of the linguistic description of the system with the statistical properties of data. Preliminary

  20. Predicting mortality for five California conifers following wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

    2010-01-01

    Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5677 trees >25cm DBH from five wildfires in California that occurred between 2000 and 2004. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality 5-years after fire were developed for incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin), white fir (Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. ex...

  1. Predictive indications of operation and mortality following renal trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Shen Yang

    2012-01-01

    Conclusion: In conclusion, ISS ≥ 16 and RIS ≥ 4 are predictive factors for necessitating an operation, and higher injury severity (ISS ≥ 16 and lower consciousness level (GCS < 8 scores are significantly associated with mortality after renal trauma.

  2. Predicting mortality in patients with heart failure : a pragmatic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouvy, ML; Heerdink, ER; Leufkens, HGM; Hoes, AW

    Objective: To develop a comprehensive and easily applicable prognostic model predicting mortality risk in patients with moderate to severe heart failure. Design: Prospective follow up study. Setting: Seven general hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients: 152 outpatients with heart failure or patients

  3. Homelessness as an independent risk factor for mortality: results from a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, David S

    2009-06-01

    Homelessness is associated with increased risks of mortality but it has not previously been possible to distinguish whether this is typical of other socio-economically deprived populations, the result of a higher prevalence of morbidity or an independent risk of homelessness itself. The aim of this study was to describe mortality among a cohort of homeless adults and adjust for the effects of morbidity and socio-economic deprivation. Retrospective 5-year study of two fixed cohorts, homeless adults and an age- and sex-matched random sample of the local non-homeless population in Greater Glasgow National Health Service Board area for comparison. Over 5 years of observation, 1.7% (209/12 451) of the general population and 7.2% (457/6323) of the homeless cohort died. The hazard ratio of all-cause mortality in homeless compared with non-homeless cohorts was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.8-5.2). After adjustment for age, sex and previous hospitalization, homelessness was associated with an all-cause mortality hazard ratio of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9). Homelessness had differential effects on cause-specific mortality. Among patients who had been hospitalized for drug-related conditions, the homeless cohort experienced a 7-fold increase in risk of death from drugs compared with the general population. Homelessness is an independent risk factor for deaths from specific causes. Preventive programmes might be most effectively targeted at the homeless with these conditions.

  4. Persistent lymphopenia is an independent predictor of mortality in critically ill emergency general surgical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vulliamy, P E; Perkins, Z B; Brohi, K; Manson, J

    2016-12-01

    Lymphopenia has been associated with poor outcome following sepsis, burns and trauma. This study was designed to establish whether lymphocyte count was associated with mortality in emergency general surgery (EGS) patients, and whether persistent lymphopenia was an independent predictor of mortality. A retrospective review of a prospectively compiled database of adult patients requiring ICU admission between 2002 and 2013 was performed. EGS patients with acute intra-abdominal pathology and organ dysfunction were included. Lymphocyte counts obtained from the day of ICU admission through to day 7 were examined. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship between persistent lymphopenia and outcome. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. The study included 173 patients, of whom 135 (78 %) had a low lymphocyte count at admission to ICU and 91 % (158/173) developed lymphopenia on at least one occasion. Lymphocyte counts were lower among non-survivors compared with survivors on each day from day 2 (0.62 vs 0.81, p = 0.03) through to day 7 (0.87 vs 1.15, p < 0.01). Patients with a persistently low lymphocyte count during the study period had significantly higher mortality when compared to patients with other lymphocyte patterns (64 vs 29 %, p < 0.01). On multivariate regression analysis, persistent lymphopenia was independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality [odds ratio 3.5 (95 % CI 1.7-7.3), p < 0.01]. Lymphopenia is commonly observed in critically ill EGS patients. Patients with persistent lymphopenia are 3.5 times more likely to die and lymphopenia is an independent predictor of increased mortality in this patient group.

  5. Fatness-Associated FTO Gene Variant Increases Mortality Independent of Fatness - in Cohorts of Danish Men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zimmermann, E; Kring, SI; Berentzen, TL

    2009-01-01

    The A-allele of the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene is associated with increased fatness. We hypothesized that the SNP is associated with morbidity and mortality through the effect on fatness. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a population of 362,200 Danish young...... prior to death suggested a general protective effect of the TT genotype, whereas there were only weak associations with disease incidence, except for diseases of the nervous system. CONCLUSION: Independent of fatness, the A-allele of the FTO SNP appears to increase mortality of a magnitude similar...

  6. Positive Disposition in the Prediction of Strategic Independence among Millennials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Konopaske

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Research on the dispositional traits of Millennials (born in 1980–2000 finds that this generation, compared to earlier generations, tends to be more narcissistic, hold themselves in higher regard and feel more entitled to rewards. The purpose of this intragenerational study is to counter balance extant research by exploring how the positive dispositional traits of proactive personality, core self-evaluation, grit and self-control predict strategic independence in a sample of 311 young adults. Strategic independence is a composite variable measuring a person’s tendency to make plans and achieve long-term goals. A confirmatory factor analysis and hierarchical regression found evidence of discriminant validity across the scales and that three of the four independent variables were statistically significant and positive predictors of strategic independence in the study. The paper discusses research and practical implications, strengths and limitations and areas for future research.

  7. Variation in GYS1 interacts with exercise and gender to predict cardiovascular mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Fredriksson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The muscle glycogen synthase gene (GYS1 has been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D, the metabolic syndrome (MetS, male myocardial infarction and a defective increase in muscle glycogen synthase protein in response to exercise. We addressed the questions whether polymorphism in GYS1 can predict cardiovascular (CV mortality in a high-risk population, if this risk is influenced by gender or physical activity, and if the association is independent of genetic variation in nearby apolipoprotein E gene (APOE. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Polymorphisms in GYS1 (XbaIC>T and APOE (-219G>T, epsilon2/epsilon3/epsilon4 were genotyped in 4,654 subjects participating in the Botnia T2D-family study and followed for a median of eight years. Mortality analyses were performed using Cox proportional-hazards regression. During the follow-up period, 749 individuals died, 409 due to CV causes. In males the GYS1 XbaI T-allele (hazard ratio (HR 1.9 [1.2-2.9], T2D (2.5 [1.7-3.8], earlier CV events (1.7 [1.2-2.5], physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.9] and smoking (1.5 [1.0-2.3] predicted CV mortality. The GYS1 XbaI T-allele predicted CV mortality particularly in physically active males (HR 1.7 [1.3-2.0]. Association of GYS1 with CV mortality was independent of APOE (219TT/epsilon4, which by its own exerted an effect on CV mortality risk in females (2.9 [1.9-4.4]. Other independent predictors of CV mortality in females were fasting plasma glucose (1.2 [1.1-1.2], high body mass index (BMI (1.0 [1.0-1.1], hypertension (1.9 [1.2-3.1], earlier CV events (1.9 [1.3-2.8] and physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.8]. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Polymorphisms in GYS1 and APOE predict CV mortality in T2D families in a gender-specific fashion and independently of each other. Physical exercise seems to unmask the effect associated with the GYS1 polymorphism, rendering carriers of the variant allele less susceptible to the protective effect of exercise on the risk of CV death

  8. Early hospital readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications predicts long-term mortality after pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Caitlin W; Tosoian, Jeffrey J; Craig-Schapiro, Rebecca; Valero, Vicente; Cameron, John L; Eckhauser, Frederic E; Hirose, Kenzo; Makary, Martin A; Pawlik, Timothy M; Ahuja, Nita; Weiss, Matthew J; Wolfgang, Christopher L

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of early (30-day) hospital readmission (EHR) on mortality after pancreatectomy. Using a prospectively collected institutional database linked with a statewide dataset, we evaluated the association between EHR and overall mortality in all patients undergoing pancreatectomy at our tertiary institution (2005 to 2010). Of 595 pancreatectomy patients, EHR occurred in 21.5%. Overall mortality was 29.4% (median follow-up 22.7 months). Patients with EHR had decreased survival compared with those who were not readmitted (P = .011). On multivariate analysis adjusting for baseline group differences, EHR for gastrointestinal-related complications was a significant independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 2.30, P = .001). In addition to known risk factors, 30-day readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications following pancreatectomy independently predicts increased mortality. Additional studies are necessary to identify surgical, medical, and social factors contributing to EHR, as well as interventions aimed at decreasing postpancreatectomy morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. [Evaluation of the capacity of the APR-DRG classification system to predict hospital mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marco, Maria Francesca; Lorenzoni, Luca; Addari, Piero; Nante, Nicola

    2002-01-01

    Inpatient mortality has increasingly been used as an hospital outcome measure. Comparing mortality rates across hospitals requires adjustment for patient risks before making inferences about quality of care based on patient outcomes. Therefore it is essential to dispose of well performing severity measures. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the All Patient Refined DRG system to predict inpatient mortality for congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, pneumonia and ischemic stroke. Administrative records were used in this analysis. We used two statistics methods to assess the ability of the APR-DRG to predict mortality: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (referred to as the c-statistic) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The database for the study included 19,212 discharges for stroke, pneumonia, myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure from fifteen hospital participating in the Italian APR-DRG Project. A multivariate analysis was performed to predict mortality for each condition in study using age, sex and APR-DRG risk mortality subclass as independent variables. Inpatient mortality rate ranges from 9.7% (pneumonia) to 16.7% (stroke). Model discrimination, calculated using the c-statistic, was 0.91 for myocardial infarction, 0.68 for stroke, 0.78 for pneumonia and 0.71 for congestive heart failure. The model calibration assessed using the Hosmer-Leme-show test was quite good. The performance of the APR-DRG scheme when used on Italian hospital activity records is similar to that reported in literature and it seems to improve by adding age and sex to the model. The APR-DRG system does not completely capture the effects of these variables. In some cases, the better performance might be due to the inclusion of specific complications in the risk-of-mortality subclass assignment.

  10. Predicting exposure-response associations of ambient particulate matter with mortality in 73 Chinese cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Chen, Renjie; Kan, Haidong; Tong, Shilu

    2016-01-01

    Estimating the burden of mortality associated with particulates requires knowledge of exposure-response associations. However, the evidence on exposure-response associations is limited in many cities, especially in developing countries. In this study, we predicted associations of particulates smaller than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) with mortality in 73 Chinese cities. The meta-regression model was used to test and quantify which city-specific characteristics contributed significantly to the heterogeneity of PM10-mortality associations for 16 Chinese cities. Then, those city-specific characteristics with statistically significant regression coefficients were treated as independent variables to build multivariate meta-regression models. The model with the best fitness was used to predict PM10-mortality associations in 73 Chinese cities in 2010. Mean temperature, PM10 concentration and green space per capita could best explain the heterogeneity in PM10-mortality associations. Based on city-specific characteristics, we were able to develop multivariate meta-regression models to predict associations between air pollutants and health outcomes reasonably well. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Lung cancer mortality in European women: trends and predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosetti, Cristina; Malvezzi, Matteo; Rosso, Tiziana; Bertuccio, Paola; Gallus, Silvano; Chatenoud, Liliane; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2012-12-01

    Female lung cancer mortality increased by 50% between the mid 1960s and the early 2000s in the European Union (EU). To monitor the current lung cancer epidemic in European women, we analyzed mortality trends in 33 European countries between 1970 and 2009 and estimated rates for the year 2015 using data from the World Health Organization. Female lung cancer mortality has been increasing up to recent calendar years in most European countries, with the exceptions of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, with relatively low rates, and the UK, Iceland and Ireland, where high rates were reached in mid/late 1990s to leveled off thereafter. In the EU, female lung cancer mortality rates rose over the last decade from 11.3 to 12.7/100,000 (+2.3% per year) at all ages and from 18.6 to 21.5/100,000 (+3.0% per year) in middle-age. A further increase is predicted, to reach 14/100,000 women in 2015. Lung cancer mortality trends have been more favorable over the last decade in young women (20-44 years), particularly in the UK and other former high-risk countries from northern and central/eastern Europe, but also in France, Italy, and Spain where mortality in young women has been increasing up to the early 2000s. In the EU as a whole, mortality at age 20-44 years decreased from 1.6 to 1.4/100,000 (-2.2% per year). Although the female lung cancer epidemic in Europe is still expanding, the epidemic may be controlled through the implementation of effective anti-tobacco measures, and it will probably never reach the top US rates. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Periodontitis in older Swedish individuals fails to predict mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renvert, Stefan; Wallin-Bengtsson, Viveca; Berglund, Johan; Persson, Rutger G

    2015-03-01

    This study aims to assess mortality risk and its association to health aspects in dentate individuals 60 years of age and older. Medical and periodontal data from 870 dentate individuals (age range 60–96) participating in the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Blekinge (SNACBlekinge)with survival statistics over 6 years were studied. During 6 years of follow-up, 42/474 of the individuals(8.9 %), who at baseline were between age 60 and 75, and 134/396 individuals of the individuals (33.9 %), who at baseline were ≥75 years, died. Surviving dentate individuals had more teeth (mean 19.3, S.D.±7.9) than those who died (mean 15.9,S.D.±7.3; mean diff 3,3; S.E. mean diff 0.7; 95 % CI 2.0, 4.6;p=0.001). A self-reported history of high blood pressure (F=15.0, pheart failure (F=24.5, pheart disease, diabetes, any form of cancer,or periodontitis failed to predict mortality. A self-reported history of angina pectoris, chronic heart failure, elevated serum HbA1c, and few remaining teeth were associated with mortality risk. A professional diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, or periodontitis was not predictive of mortality. Self-health reports are important to observe in the assessment of disease and survival in older individual.

  13. Independent predictors of tuberculosis mortality in a high HIV prevalence setting: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, Dominique J; Schomaker, Michael; Wilkinson, Robert J; de Azevedo, Virginia; Maartens, Gary

    2015-01-01

    Identifying those at increased risk of death during TB treatment is a priority in resource-constrained settings. We performed this study to determine predictors of mortality during TB treatment. We performed a retrospective analysis of a TB surveillance population in a high HIV prevalence area that was recorded in ETR.net (Electronic Tuberculosis Register). Adult TB cases initiated TB treatment from 2007 through 2009 in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors for death (after multiple imputations for missing data). Model selection was performed using Akaike's Information Criterion to obtain the most relevant predictors of death. Of 16,209 adult TB cases, 851 (5.3 %) died during TB treatment. In all TB cases, advancing age, co-infection with HIV, a prior history of TB and the presence of both pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB were independently associated with an increasing hazard of death. In HIV-infected TB cases, advancing age and female gender were independently associated with an increasing hazard of death. Increasing CD4 counts and antiretroviral treatment during TB treatment were protective against death. In HIV-uninfected TB cases, advancing age was independently associated with death, whereas smear-positive disease was protective. We identified several independent predictors of death during TB treatment in resource-constrained settings. Our findings inform resource-constrained settings about certain subgroups of TB patients that should be targeted to improve mortality during TB treatment.

  14. Docosahexaenoic acid is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamazaki, Kei; Terashima, Yoshihiro; Itomura, Miho; Sawazaki, Shigeki; Inagaki, Hitoshi; Kuroda, Masahiro; Tomita, Shin; Hirata, Hitoshi; Inadera, Hidekuni; Hamazaki, Tomohito

    2011-01-01

    Dietary n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and eicosapentaenoic acid have been shown to reduce cardiovascular mortality. Patients on hemodialysis (HD) have a very high mortality from cardiovascular disease. Fish consumption reduces all-cause mortality in patients on HD. Moreover, n-3 PUFAs, especially DHA levels in red blood cells (RBCs), are associated with arteriosclerosis in patients on HD. The aim of this study was to determine whether DHA levels in RBCs predict the mortality of patients on HD in a prospective cohort study. A cohort of 176 patients (64.1 ± 12.0 (mean ± SD) years of age, 96 men and 80 women) under HD treatment was studied. The fatty acid composition of their RBCs was analyzed by gas chromatography. During the study period of 5 years, 54 deaths occurred. After adjustment for 10 confounding factors, the Cox hazard ratio of all-cause mortality of the patients on HD in the highest DHA tertile (>8.1%, 15 deaths) was 0.43 (95% CI 0.21-0.88) compared with those patients in the lowest DHA tertile (HD. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. Predicting Early Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery: The Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karres, Julian; Kieviet, Noera; Eerenberg, Jan-Peter; Vrouenraets, Bart C

    2018-01-01

    Early mortality after hip fracture surgery is high and preoperative risk assessment for the individual patient is challenging. A risk model could identify patients in need of more intensive perioperative care, provide insight in the prognosis, and allow for risk adjustment in audits. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). Data on 1050 consecutive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively collected and randomly split into a development cohort (746 patients) and validation cohort (304 patients). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine risk factors for the HEMA. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both cohorts using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and by stratification into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. Nine predictors for 30-day mortality were identified and used in the final model: age ≥85 years, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy, and serum urea >9 mmol/L. The HEMA showed good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.81) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit in either cohort (P > 0.05). The HEMA is based on preoperative variables and can be used to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery for the individual patient. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  16. Can the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score predict postoperative complications other than mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Małczak, Piotr; Pisarska, Magdalena; Migaczewski, Marcin; Winiarski, Marek; Budzyński, Andrzej

    2016-01-01

    Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) are bariatric procedures with acceptable risk of postoperative morbidities and mortalities, but identification of high-risk patients is an ongoing issue. DeMaria et al. introduced the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS), which was designed for mortality risk assessment but not perioperative morbidity risk. To assess the possibility to use the OS-MRS to predict the risk of perioperative complications related to LSG and LRYGB. Retrospective analysis of patients operated on for morbid obesity was performed. Patients were evaluated before and after surgery. We included 408 patients (233 LSG, 175 LRYGB). Perioperative complications were defined as adverse effects in the 30-day period. The Clavien-Dindo scale was used for description of complications. Patients were assigned to five grades and three classes according to the OS-MRS results, then risk of morbidity was analyzed. Complications were observed in 30 (7.35%) patients. Similar morbidity was related to both procedures (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.53-2.44, p = 0.744). The reoperation and mortality rates were 1.23% and 0.49% respectively. There were no significant differences in median OS-MRS value between the group without and the group with perioperative complications. There were no significant differences in OS-MRS between groups (p = 0.091). Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score was not related to Clavien-Dindo grades (p = 0.800). It appears that OS-MRS is not useful in predicting risk of perioperative morbidity after bariatric procedures.

  17. Prognostic durability of liver fibrosis tests and improvement in predictive performance for mortality by combining tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrais, Sandrine; Boursier, Jérôme; Ducancelle, Alexandra; Oberti, Frédéric; Fouchard-Hubert, Isabelle; Moal, Valérie; Calès, Paul

    2017-06-01

    There is currently no recommended time interval between noninvasive fibrosis measurements for monitoring chronic liver diseases. We determined how long a single liver fibrosis evaluation may accurately predict mortality, and assessed whether combining tests improves prognostic performance. We included 1559 patients with chronic liver disease and available baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by Fibroscan, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB-4, Hepascore, and FibroMeter V2G . Median follow-up was 2.8 years during which 262 (16.8%) patients died, with 115 liver-related deaths. All fibrosis tests were able to predict mortality, although APRI (and FIB-4 for liver-related mortality) showed lower overall discriminative ability than the other tests (differences in Harrell's C-index: P fibrosis, 1 year in patients with significant fibrosis, and liver disease (MELD) score testing sets. In the training set, blood tests and LSM were independent predictors of all-cause mortality. The best-fit multivariate model included age, sex, LSM, and FibroMeter V2G with C-index = 0.834 (95% confidence interval, 0.803-0.862). The prognostic model for liver-related mortality included the same covariates with C-index = 0.868 (0.831-0.902). In the testing set, the multivariate models had higher prognostic accuracy than FibroMeter V2G or LSM alone for all-cause mortality and FibroMeter V2G alone for liver-related mortality. The prognostic durability of a single baseline fibrosis evaluation depends on the liver fibrosis level. Combining LSM with a blood fibrosis test improves mortality risk assessment. © 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  18. Acute kidney injury is independently associated with higher mortality after cardiac surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kandler, Kristian; Jensen, Mathias E; Nilsson, Jens C

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To investigate the incidence of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery and its association with mortality in a patient population receiving ibuprofen and gentamicin perioperatively. DESIGN: Retrospective study with Cox regression analysis to control for possible preoperative......, intraoperative and postoperative confounders. SETTING: University hospital-based single-center study. PARTICIPANTS: All patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting ± valve surgery during 2012. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: Acute surgery within 24 hours of coronary angiography.......21-4.51, p = 0.011) and 5.62 (95% CI: 2.42-13.06), psurgery developed AKI in this contemporary cohort. Furthermore, acute kidney injury was an independent...

  19. Does personality predict mortality? Results from the GAZEL French prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabi, Hermann; Kivimäki, Mika; Zins, Marie; Elovainio, Marko; Consoli, Silla M; Cordier, Sylvaine; Ducimetière, Pierre; Goldberg, Marcel; Singh-Manoux, Archana

    2008-04-01

    Majority of studies on personality and physical health have focused on one or two isolated personality traits. We aim to test the independent association of 10 personality traits, from three major conceptual models, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the French GAZEL cohort. A total of 14,445 participants, aged 39-54 in 1993, completed the personality questionnaires composed of the Bortner Type-A scale, the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory (for total, neurotic and reactive hostility) and the Grossarth-Maticek-Eysenck Personality Stress Inventory that assesses six personality types [cancer-prone, coronary heart disease (CHD)-prone, ambivalent, healthy, rational, anti-social]. The association between personality traits and mortality, during a mean follow-up of 12.7 years, was assessed using the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in Cox regression. In models adjusted for age, sex, marital status and education, all-cause and cause-specific mortality were predicted by 'total hostility', its 'neurotic hostility' component as well as by 'CHD-prone', 'ambivalent' 'antisocial', and 'healthy' personality types. After mutually adjusting personality traits for each other, only high 'neurotic hostility' remained a robust predictor of excess mortality from all causes [RII = 2.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.68-4.09] and external causes (RII = 3.24; 95% CI = 1.03-10.18). 'CHD-prone' (RII = 2.23; 95% CI = 0.72-6.95) and 'anti-social' (RII = 2.13; 95% CI 0.61-6.58) personality types were associated with cardiovascular mortality and with mortality from external causes, respectively, but CIs were wider. Adjustment for potential behavioural mediators had only a modest effect on these associations. Neurotic hostility, CHD-prone personality and anti-social personality were all predictive of mortality outcomes. Further research is required to determine the precise mechanisms that contribute to these associations.

  20. Biomarkers improve mortality prediction by prognostic scales in community-acquired pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menéndez, R; Martínez, R; Reyes, S; Mensa, J; Filella, X; Marcos, M A; Martínez, A; Esquinas, C; Ramirez, P; Torres, A

    2009-07-01

    Prognostic scales provide a useful tool to predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, the inflammatory response of the host, crucial in resolution and outcome, is not included in the prognostic scales. The aim of this study was to investigate whether information about the initial inflammatory cytokine profile and markers increases the accuracy of prognostic scales to predict 30-day mortality. To this aim, a prospective cohort study in two tertiary care hospitals was designed. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and the systemic cytokines tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) and interleukins IL6, IL8 and IL10 were measured at admission. Initial severity was assessed by PSI (Pneumonia Severity Index), CURB65 (Confusion, Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) and CRB65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) scales. A total of 453 hospitalised CAP patients were included. The 36 patients who died (7.8%) had significantly increased levels of IL6, IL8, PCT and CRP. In regression logistic analyses, high levels of CRP and IL6 showed an independent predictive value for predicting 30-day mortality, after adjustment for prognostic scales. Adding CRP to PSI significantly increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.80 to 0.85, that of CURB65 from 0.82 to 0.85 and that of CRB65 from 0.79 to 0.85. Adding IL6 or PCT values to CRP did not significantly increase the AUC of any scale. When using two scales (PSI and CURB65/CRB65) and CRP simultaneously the AUC was 0.88. Adding CRP levels to PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 scales improves the 30-day mortality prediction. The highest predictive value is reached with a combination of two scales and CRP. Further validation of that improvement is needed.

  1. Prediction of mortality after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer by machine learning techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanjin; Lam, Kin-Man; Deng, Zhaohong; Choi, Kup-Sze

    2015-08-01

    Bladder cancer is a common cancer in genitourinary malignancy. For muscle invasive bladder cancer, surgical removal of the bladder, i.e. radical cystectomy, is in general the definitive treatment which, unfortunately, carries significant morbidities and mortalities. Accurate prediction of the mortality of radical cystectomy is therefore needed. Statistical methods have conventionally been used for this purpose, despite the complex interactions of high-dimensional medical data. Machine learning has emerged as a promising technique for handling high-dimensional data, with increasing application in clinical decision support, e.g. cancer prediction and prognosis. Its ability to reveal the hidden nonlinear interactions and interpretable rules between dependent and independent variables is favorable for constructing models of effective generalization performance. In this paper, seven machine learning methods are utilized to predict the 5-year mortality of radical cystectomy, including back-propagation neural network (BPN), radial basis function (RBFN), extreme learning machine (ELM), regularized ELM (RELM), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB) classifier and k-nearest neighbour (KNN), on a clinicopathological dataset of 117 patients of the urology unit of a hospital in Hong Kong. The experimental results indicate that RELM achieved the highest average prediction accuracy of 0.8 at a fast learning speed. The research findings demonstrate the potential of applying machine learning techniques to support clinical decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Is self-rated health an independent index for mortality among older people in Indonesia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nawi Ng

    Full Text Available Empirical studies on the association between self-rated health (SRH and subsequent mortality are generally lacking in low- and middle-income countries. The evidence on whether socio-economic status and education modify this association is inconsistent. This study aims to fill these gaps using longitudinal data from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS site in Indonesia.In 2010, we assessed the mortality status of 11,753 men and women aged 50+ who lived in Purworejo HDSS and participated in the INDEPTH WHO SAGE baseline in 2007. Information on self-rated health, socio-demographic indicators, disability and chronic disease were collected through face-to-face interview at baseline. We used Cox-proportional hazards regression for mortality and included all variables measured at baseline, including interaction terms between SRH and both education and socio-economic status (SES.During an average of 36 months follow-up, 11% of men and 9.5% of women died, resulting in death rates of 3.1 and 2.6 per 1,000 person-months, respectively. The age-adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR for mortality was 17% higher in men than women (HR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.04-1.31. After adjustment for covariates, the hazard ratios for mortality in men and women reporting bad health were 3.0 (95% CI = 2.0-4.4 and 4.9 (95% CI = 3.2-7.4, respectively. Education and SES did not modify this association for either sex.This study supports the predictive power of bad self-rated health for subsequent mortality in rural Indonesian men and women 50 years old and over. In these analyses, education and household socio-economic status do not modify the relationship between SRH and mortality. This means that older people who rate their own health poorly should be an important target group for health service interventions.

  3. Depression increasingly predicts mortality in the course of congestive heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jünger, Jana; Schellberg, Dieter; Müller-Tasch, Thomas; Raupp, Georg; Zugck, Christian; Haunstetter, Armin; Zipfel, Stephan; Herzog, Wolfgang; Haass, Markus

    2005-03-02

    Congestive heart failure (CHF) is frequently associated with depression. However, the impact of depression on prognosis has not yet been sufficiently established. To prospectively investigate the influence of depression on mortality in patients with CHF. In 209 CHF patients depression was assessed by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D). Compared to survivors (n=164), non-survivors (n=45) were characterized by a higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class (2.8+/-0.7 vs. 2.5+/-0.6), and a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (18+/-8 vs. 23+/-10%) and peakVO(2) (13.1+/-4.5 vs. 15.4+/-5.2 ml/kg/min) at baseline. Furthermore, non-survivors had a higher depression score (7.5+/-4.0 vs. 6.1+/-4.3) (all P<0.05). After a mean follow-up of 24.8 months the depression score was identified as a significant indicator of mortality (P<0.01). In multivariate analysis the depression score predicted mortality independent from NYHA functional class, LVEF and peakVO(2). Combination of depression score, LVEF and peakVO(2) allowed for a better risk stratification than combination of LVEF and peakVO(2) alone. The risk ratio for mortality in patients with an elevated depression score (i.e. above the median) rose over time to 8.2 after 30 months (CI 2.62-25.84). The depression score predicts mortality independent of somatic parameters in CHF patients not treated for depression. Its prognostic power increases over time and should, thus, be accounted for in risk stratification and therapy.

  4. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carla Pereira de Araujo

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1 or positive (G2 for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%. During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016. The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022 and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively. Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.

  5. Depression, not anxiety, is independently associated with 5-year hospitalizations and mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Versteeg, Henneke; Hoogwegt, Madelein T; Hansen, Tina B

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the current study was to examine whether depression and anxiety are independently associated with 5-year cardiac-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD)....

  6. Plasma Lactate Dehydrogenase Levels Predict Mortality in Acute Aortic Syndromes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morello, Fulvio; Ravetti, Anna; Nazerian, Peiman; Liedl, Giovanni; Veglio, Maria Grazia; Battista, Stefania; Vanni, Simone; Pivetta, Emanuele; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Mengozzi, Giulio; Rinaldi, Mauro; Moiraghi, Corrado; Lupia, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In acute aortic syndromes (AAS), organ malperfusion represents a key event impacting both on diagnosis and outcome. Increased levels of plasma lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a biomarker of malperfusion, have been reported in AAS, but the performance of LDH for the diagnosis of AAS and the relation of LDH with outcome in AAS have not been evaluated so far. This was a bi-centric prospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2008 to 2014, patients from 2 Emergency Departments suspected of having AAS underwent LDH assay at presentation. A final diagnosis was obtained by aortic imaging. Patients diagnosed with AAS were followed-up for in-hospital mortality. One thousand five hundred seventy-eight consecutive patients were clinically eligible, and 999 patients were included in the study. The final diagnosis was AAS in 201 (20.1%) patients. Median LDH was 424 U/L (interquartile range [IQR] 367–557) in patients with AAS and 383 U/L (IQR 331–460) in patients with alternative diagnoses (P < 0.001). Using a cutoff of 450 U/L, the sensitivity of LDH for AAS was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37–51) and the specificity was 73% (95% CI 69–76). Overall in-hospital mortality for AAS was 23.8%. Mortality was 32.6% in patients with LDH ≥ 450 U/L and 16.8% in patients with LDH < 450 U/L (P = 0.006). Following stratification according to LDH quartiles, in-hospital mortality was 12% in the first (lowest) quartile, 18.4% in the second quartile, 23.5% in the third quartile, and 38% in the fourth (highest) quartile (P = 0.01). LDH ≥ 450 U/L was further identified as an independent predictor of death in AAS both in univariate and in stepwise logistic regression analyses (odds ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.11–4.66; P = 0.025), in addition to well-established risk markers such as advanced age and hypotension. Subgroup analysis showed excess mortality in association with LDH ≥ 450 U/L in elderly, hemodynamically stable

  7. Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beck, Mette Kristina; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Nielsen, Annelaura Bach

    2016-01-01

    Sepsis affects millions of people every year, many of whom will die. In contrast to current survival prediction models for sepsis patients that primarily are based on data from within-admission clinical measurements (e.g. vital parameters and blood values), we aim for using the full disease histo...... of disease history to scoring based on within-admission clinical measurements emphasizing the value of long term data in novel patient scores that combine the two types of data.......Sepsis affects millions of people every year, many of whom will die. In contrast to current survival prediction models for sepsis patients that primarily are based on data from within-admission clinical measurements (e.g. vital parameters and blood values), we aim for using the full disease history...... recurrent trajectories of time-ordered co-morbidities had significantly increased sepsis mortality compared to those who did not follow a trajectory. We identified trajectories which significantly altered sepsis mortality, and found three major starting points in a combined temporal sepsis network: Alcohol...

  8. Sarcopenia predicts 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Dong-Dong; Chen, Xiao-Xi; Chen, Xi-Yi; Wang, Su-Lin; Shen, Xian; Chen, Xiao-Lei; Yu, Zhen; Zhuang, Cheng-Le

    2016-11-01

    One-year mortality is vital for elderly oncologic patients undergoing surgery. Recent studies have demonstrated that sarcopenia can predict outcomes after major abdominal surgeries, but the association of sarcopenia and 1-year mortality has never been investigated in a prospective study. We conducted a prospective study of elderly patients (≥65 years) who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer from July 2014 to July 2015. Sarcopenia was determined by the measurements of muscle mass, handgrip strength, and gait speed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. A total of 173 patients were included, in which 52 (30.1 %) patients were identified as having sarcopenia. Twenty-four (13.9 %) patients died within 1 year of surgery. Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an increased predictive power for 1-year mortality with the inclusion of sarcopenia, from 0.835 to 0.868. Solely low muscle mass was not predictive of 1-year mortality in the multivariate analysis. Sarcopenia is predictive of 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery. The measurement of muscle function is important for sarcopenia as a preoperative assessment tool.

  9. Symptom clusters predict mortality among dialysis patients in Norway: a prospective observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amro, Amin; Waldum, Bård; von der Lippe, Nanna; Brekke, Fredrik Barth; Dammen, Toril; Miaskowski, Christine; Os, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis have reduced survival rates compared with the general population. Symptoms are frequent in dialysis patients, and a symptom cluster is defined as two or more related co-occurring symptoms. The aim of this study was to explore the associations between symptom clusters and mortality in dialysis patients. In a prospective observational cohort study of dialysis patients (n = 301), Kidney Disease and Quality of Life Short Form and Beck Depression Inventory questionnaires were administered. To generate symptom clusters, principal component analysis with varimax rotation was used on 11 kidney-specific self-reported physical symptoms. A Beck Depression Inventory score of 16 or greater was defined as clinically significant depressive symptoms. Physical and mental component summary scores were generated from Short Form-36. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used for the survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank statistics were applied to compare survival rates between the groups. Three different symptom clusters were identified; one included loading of several uremic symptoms. In multivariate analyses and after adjustment for health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms, the worst perceived quartile of the "uremic" symptom cluster independently predicted all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.47, 95% CI 1.44-4.22, P = 0.001) compared with the other quartiles during a follow-up period that ranged from four to 52 months. The two other symptom clusters ("neuromuscular" and "skin") or the individual symptoms did not predict mortality. Clustering of uremic symptoms predicted mortality. Assessing co-occurring symptoms rather than single symptoms may help to identify dialysis patients at high risk for mortality. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. More than clean air and tranquillity: Residential green is independently associated with decreasing mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vienneau, Danielle; de Hoogh, Kees; Faeh, David; Kaufmann, Marco; Wunderli, Jean Marc; Röösli, Martin

    2017-11-01

    Green space may improve health by enabling physical activity and recovery from stress or by decreased pollution levels. We investigated the association between residential green (greenness or green space) and mortality in adults using the Swiss National Cohort (SNC) by mutually considering air pollution and transportation noise exposure. To reflect residential green at the address level, two different metrics were derived: normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) for greenness, and high resolution land use classification data to identify green spaces (LU-green). We used stratified Cox proportional hazard models (stratified by sex) to study the association between exposure and all natural cause mortality, respiratory and cardiovascular disease (CVD), including ischemic heart disease, stroke and hypertension related mortality. Models were adjusted for civil status, job position, education, neighbourhood socio-economic position (SEP), geographic region, area type, altitude, air pollution (PM 10 ), and transportation noise. From the nation-wide SNC, 4.2 million adults were included providing 7.8years of follow-up and respectively 363,553, 85,314 and 232,322 natural cause, respiratory and CVD deaths. Hazard ratios (and 95%-confidence intervals) for NDVI [and LU-green] per interquartile range within 500m of residence were highly comparable: 0.94 (0.93-0.95) [0.94 (0.93-0.95)] for natural causes; 0.92 (0.91-0.94) [0.92 (0.90-0.95)] for respiratory; and 0.95 (0.94-0.96) [0.96 (0.95-0.98)] for CVD mortality. Protective effects were stronger in younger individuals and in women and, for most outcomes, in urban (vs. rural) and in the highest (vs. lowest) SEP quartile. Estimates remained virtually unchanged after incremental adjustment for air pollution and transportation noise, and mediation by these environmental factors was found to be small. We found consistent evidence that residential green reduced the risk of mortality independently from other environmental

  11. Fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonias: HRCT findings that predict mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edey, Anthony J.; Hansell, David M. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Devaraj, Anand A. [St. George' s NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Radiology, Tooting (United Kingdom); Barker, Robert P. [Frimley Park Hosptal, Department of Radiology, Frimley, Surrey (United Kingdom); Nicholson, Andrew G. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Department of Histopathology, London (United Kingdom); Wells, Athol U. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Interstitial Lung Disease Unit, London (United Kingdom)

    2011-08-15

    The study aims were to identify CT features that predict outcome of fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP) when information from lung biopsy data is unavailable. HRCTs of 146 consecutive patients presenting with fibrotic IIP were studied. Visual estimates were made of the extent of abnormal lung and proportional contribution of fine and coarse reticulation, microcystic (cysts {<=}4 mm) and macrocystic honeycombing. A score for severity of traction bronchiectasis was also assigned. Using death as our primary outcome measure, variables were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model. CT features predictive of a worse outcome were coarse reticulation, microcystic and macrocystic honeycombing, as well as overall extent of lung abnormality (p < 0.001). Importantly, increased severity of traction bronchiectasis, corrected for extent of parenchymal abnormality, was predictive of poor prognosis regardless of the background pattern of abnormal lung (HR = 1.04, CI = 1.03-1.06, p < 0.001). On bivariate Cox analysis microcystic honeycombing was a more powerful determinant of a poor prognosis than macrocystic honeycombing. In fibrotic IIPs we have shown that increasingly severe traction bronchiectasis is indicative of higher mortality irrespective of the HRCT pattern and extent of disease. Extent of microcystic honeycombing is a more powerful determinant of outcome than macrocystic honeycombing. (orig.)

  12. CT pulmonary angiography findings that predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bach, Andreas Gunter, E-mail: mail@andreas-bach.de [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Nansalmaa, Baasai; Kranz, Johanna [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Taute, Bettina-Maria [Department of Internal Medicine, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Wienke, Andreas [Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger-Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Germany); Schramm, Dominik; Surov, Alexey [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany)

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • In patients with acute pulmonary embolism contrast reflux in inferior vena cava is significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). • This finding is independent from the following comorbidities: heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust radiologic method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a better predictor of 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism than any other existing radiologic predictor. This includes thrombus distribution, and morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. - Abstract: Purpose: Standard computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) can be used to diagnose acute pulmonary embolism. In addition, multiple findings at CTPA have been proposed as potential tools for risk stratification. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the prognostic value of (I) thrombus distribution, (II) morphometric parameters of right ventricular dysfunction, and (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava on 30-day mortality. Material and methods: In a retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 365 consecutive patients were included. Inclusion criteria were: presence of acute pulmonary embolism, and availability of 30-day follow-up. A review of patient charts and images was performed. Results: There were no significant differences between the group of 326 survivors and 39 non-survivors in (I) thrombus distribution, and (II) morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. However, (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava was significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). Results were independent from comorbidities like heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. Conclusion: Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary

  13. Metabonomics Analysis of Plasma Reveals the Lactate to Cholesterol Ratio as an Independent Prognostic Factor of Short-Term Mortality in Acute Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desmoulin, Franck; Galinier, Michel; Trouillet, Charlotte; Berry, Matthieu; Delmas, Clément; Turkieh, Annie; Massabuau, Pierre; Taegtmeyer, Heinrich; Smih, Fatima; Rouet, Philippe

    2013-01-01

    Objective Mortality in heart failure (AHF) remains high, especially during the first days of hospitalization. New prognostic biomarkers may help to optimize treatment. The aim of the study was to determine metabolites that have a high prognostic value. Methods We conducted a prospective study on a training cohort of AHF patients (n = 126) admitted in the cardiac intensive care unit and assessed survival at 30 days. Venous plasmas collected at admission were used for 1H NMR – based metabonomics analysis. Differences between plasma metabolite profiles allow determination of discriminating metabolites. A cohort of AHF patients was subsequently constituted (n = 74) to validate the findings. Results Lactate and cholesterol were the major discriminating metabolites predicting 30-day mortality. Mortality was increased in patients with high lactate and low total cholesterol concentrations at admission. Accuracies of lactate, cholesterol concentration and lactate to cholesterol (Lact/Chol) ratio to predict 30-day mortality were evaluated using ROC analysis. The Lact/Chol ratio provided the best accuracy with an AUC of 0.82 (P ratio ≥ 0.4 (cutoff value with 82% sensitivity and 64% specificity) were significant independent predictors of 30-day mortality with hazard ratios (HR) of 1.11, 4.77 and 3.59, respectively. In CS patients, the HR of 30-day mortality risk for plasma Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 was 3.26 compared to a Lact/Chol ratio of ratio for 30-day mortality outcome was confirmed with the independent validation cohort. Conclusion This study identifies the plasma Lact/Chol ratio as a useful objective and simple parameter to evaluate short term prognostic and could be integrated into quantitative guidance for decision making in heart failure care. PMID:23573279

  14. The gamma gap predicts 4-year all-cause mortality among nonagenarians and centenarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Xie, Linlin; Liu, Xiu; Hao, Qiukui; Jiang, Jiaojiao; Dong, Birong

    2018-01-18

    Recent studies have revealed the prognostic role of the gamma gap, the total serum proteins concentration minus the albumin concentration, for predicting all-cause mortality among adults. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the gamma gap and all-cause mortality among nonagenarians and centenarians via a secondary data analysis of a prospective observational study. The analysis included 801 participants (260 men and 541 women, mean age: 93.7 ± 3.5 years), 46 of which were lost at the 4-year follow-up. The mean gamma gap was 2.7 ± 0.5 g/dl. After adjusting for relevant confounders, the gamma gap was significantly associated with 4-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per 1-SD = 1.22, 95% confidential interval [CI]: 1.12-1.78). Using different cut-off points, the elevated gamma gap could be defined as ≥2.9, 3.0, 3.1, or 3.2 g/dl. The relevant HRs and 95% CIs of the elevated gamma gap for predicting mortality were 1.27 (1.12-1.90), 1.29 (1.03-1.78), 1.21 (1.23-1.66), and 1.26 (1.09-1.69), respectively. In conclusion, the gamma gap is an independent prognostic factor for long-term mortality in nonagenarians and centenarians. A value greater than or equal to 3.1 g/dl may define an elevated gamma gap, but further studies are required.

  15. Predicting mortality among hospitalized children with respiratory illness in Western Kenya, 2009-2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gideon O Emukule

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pediatric respiratory disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the developing world. We evaluated a modified respiratory index of severity in children (mRISC scoring system as a standard tool to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from children <5 years old who were hospitalized with respiratory illness at Siaya District Hospital from 2009-2012. We used a multivariable logistic regression model to identify patient characteristics predictive for in-hospital mortality. Model discrimination was evaluated using the concordance statistic. Using bootstrap samples, we re-estimated the coefficients and the optimism of the model. The mRISC score for each child was developed by adding up the points assigned to each factor associated with mortality based on the coefficients in the multivariable model. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 3,581 children hospitalized with respiratory illness; including 218 (6% who died. Low weight-for-age [adjusted odds ratio (aOR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.3-3.2], very low weight-for-age (aOR = 3.8; 95% CI 2.7-5.4, caretaker-reported history of unconsciousness (aOR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.6-3.4, inability to drink or breastfeed (aOR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.2-2.8, chest wall in-drawing (aOR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.5-3.1, and being not fully conscious on physical exam (aOR = 8.0; 95% CI 5.1-12.6 were independently associated with mortality. The positive predictive value for mortality increased with increasing mRISC scores. CONCLUSIONS: A modified RISC scoring system based on a set of easily measurable clinical features at admission was able to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya.

  16. Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

    2012-01-01

    There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

  17. Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: high-resolution CT scores predict mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimoto, Kiminori; Taniguchi, Hiroyuki; Kondoh, Yasuhiro; Kataoka, Kensuke; Johkoh, Takeshi; Ichikado, Kazuya; Sumikawa, Hiromitsu; Ogura, Takashi; Endo, Takahiro; Kawaguchi, Atsushi; Mueller, Nestor L.

    2012-01-01

    To determine high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) findings helpful in predicting mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AEx-IPF). Sixty patients with diagnosis of AEx-IPF were reviewed retrospectively. Two groups (two observers each) independently evaluated pattern, distribution, and extent of HRCT findings at presentation and calculated an HRCT score at AEx based on normal attenuation areas and extent of abnormalities, such as areas of ground-glass attenuation and/or consolidation with or without traction bronchiectasis or bronchiolectasis and areas of honeycombing. The correlation between the clinical data including the HRCT score and mortality (cause-specific survival) was evaluated using the univariate and multivariate Cox-regression analyses. Serum KL-6 level, PaCO 2 , and the HRCT score were statistically significant predictors on univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that the HRCT score was an independently significant predictor of outcome (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.19, P = 0.0002). The area under receiver operating characteristics curve for the HRCT score was statistically significant in the classification of survivors or nonsurvivors (0.944; P < 0.0001). Survival in patients with HRCT score ≥245 was worse than those with lower score (log-rank test, P < 0.0001). The HRCT score at AEx is independently related to prognosis in patients with AEx-IPF. (orig.)

  18. Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: high-resolution CT scores predict mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujimoto, Kiminori [Kurume University School of Medicine, and Center for Diagnostic Imaging, Kurume University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Kurume, Fukuoka (Japan); Taniguchi, Hiroyuki; Kondoh, Yasuhiro; Kataoka, Kensuke [Tosei General Hospital, Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergy, Seto, Aichi (Japan); Johkoh, Takeshi [Kinki Central Hospital of Mutual Aid Association of Public School Teachers, Department of Radiology, Itami (Japan); Ichikado, Kazuya [Saiseikai Kumamoto Hospital, Division of Respiratory Medicine, Kumamoto (Japan); Sumikawa, Hiromitsu [Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Ogura, Takashi; Endo, Takahiro [Kanagawa Cardiovascular and Respiratory Center, Department of Respiratory Medicine, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Kawaguchi, Atsushi [Kurume University School of Medicine, Biostatistics Center, Kurume (Japan); Mueller, Nestor L. [University of British Columbia and Vancouver General Hospital, Department of Radiology, Vancouver, B.C. (Canada)

    2012-01-15

    To determine high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) findings helpful in predicting mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AEx-IPF). Sixty patients with diagnosis of AEx-IPF were reviewed retrospectively. Two groups (two observers each) independently evaluated pattern, distribution, and extent of HRCT findings at presentation and calculated an HRCT score at AEx based on normal attenuation areas and extent of abnormalities, such as areas of ground-glass attenuation and/or consolidation with or without traction bronchiectasis or bronchiolectasis and areas of honeycombing. The correlation between the clinical data including the HRCT score and mortality (cause-specific survival) was evaluated using the univariate and multivariate Cox-regression analyses. Serum KL-6 level, PaCO{sub 2}, and the HRCT score were statistically significant predictors on univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that the HRCT score was an independently significant predictor of outcome (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.19, P = 0.0002). The area under receiver operating characteristics curve for the HRCT score was statistically significant in the classification of survivors or nonsurvivors (0.944; P < 0.0001). Survival in patients with HRCT score {>=}245 was worse than those with lower score (log-rank test, P < 0.0001). The HRCT score at AEx is independently related to prognosis in patients with AEx-IPF. (orig.)

  19. Circulating CD147 predicts mortality in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Aimei; Rode, Anthony; Nicoll, Amanda; Maczurek, Annette E; Lim, Lucy; Lim, Seok; Angus, Peter; Kronborg, Ian; Arachchi, Niranjan; Gorelik, Alexandra; Liew, Danny; Warner, Fiona J; McCaughan, Geoffrey W; McLennan, Susan V; Shackel, Nicholas A

    2016-02-01

    The glycoprotein CD147 has a role in tumor progression, is readily detectable in the circulation, and is abundantly expressed in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Advanced HCC patients are a heterogeneous group with some individuals having dismal survival. The aim of this study was to examine circulating soluble CD147 levels as a prognostic marker in HCC patients. CD147 was measured in 277 patients (110 HCC, 115 chronic liver disease, and 52 non-liver disease). Clinical data included etiology, tumor progression, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and treatment response. Patients with HCC were stratified into two groups based upon the 75th percentile of CD147 levels (24 ng/mL). CD147 in HCC correlated inversely with poor survival (P = 0.031). Increased CD147 predicted poor survival in BCLC stages C and D (P = 0.045), and CD147 levels >24 ng/mL predicted a significantly diminished 90-day and 180-day survival time (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-63.2; P = 0.0045 and HR = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.2-12.6; P = 0.028, respectively). In BCLC stage C, CD147 predicted prognosis; levels >24 ng/mL were associated with a median survival of 1.5 months compared with 6.5 months with CD147 levels ≤24 ng/mL (P = 0.03). CD147 also identified patients with a poor prognosis independent from treatment frequency, modality, and tumor size. Circulating CD147 is an independent marker of survival in advanced HCC. CD147 requires further evaluation as a potential new prognostic measure in HCC to identify patients with advanced disease who have a poor prognosis. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  20. Metabonomics analysis of plasma reveals the lactate to cholesterol ratio as an independent prognostic factor of short-term mortality in acute heart failure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franck Desmoulin

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Mortality in heart failure (AHF remains high, especially during the first days of hospitalization. New prognostic biomarkers may help to optimize treatment. The aim of the study was to determine metabolites that have a high prognostic value. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study on a training cohort of AHF patients (n = 126 admitted in the cardiac intensive care unit and assessed survival at 30 days. Venous plasmas collected at admission were used for (1H NMR--based metabonomics analysis. Differences between plasma metabolite profiles allow determination of discriminating metabolites. A cohort of AHF patients was subsequently constituted (n = 74 to validate the findings. RESULTS: Lactate and cholesterol were the major discriminating metabolites predicting 30-day mortality. Mortality was increased in patients with high lactate and low total cholesterol concentrations at admission. Accuracies of lactate, cholesterol concentration and lactate to cholesterol (Lact/Chol ratio to predict 30-day mortality were evaluated using ROC analysis. The Lact/Chol ratio provided the best accuracy with an AUC of 0.82 (P < 0.0001. The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II scoring system provided an AUC of 0.76 for predicting 30-day mortality. APACHE II score, Cardiogenic shock (CS state and Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 (cutoff value with 82% sensitivity and 64% specificity were significant independent predictors of 30-day mortality with hazard ratios (HR of 1.11, 4.77 and 3.59, respectively. In CS patients, the HR of 30-day mortality risk for plasma Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 was 3.26 compared to a Lact/Chol ratio of < 0.4 (P = 0.018. The predictive power of the Lact/Chol ratio for 30-day mortality outcome was confirmed with the independent validation cohort. CONCLUSION: This study identifies the plasma Lact/Chol ratio as a useful objective and simple parameter to evaluate short term prognostic and could be integrated into quantitative

  1. Child Mortality as Predicted by Nutritional Status and Recent Weight Velocity in Children under Two in Rural Africa.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2012-01-31

    WHO has released prescriptive child growth standards for, among others, BMI-for-age (BMI-FA), mid-upper arm circumference-for-age, and weight velocity. The ability of these indices to predict child mortality remains understudied, although growth velocity prognostic value underlies current growth monitoring programs. The study aims were first to assess, in children under 2, the independent and combined ability of these indices and of stunting to predict all-cause mortality within 3 mo, and second, the comparative abilities of weight-for-length (WFL) and BMI-FA to predict short-term (<3 mo) mortality. We used anthropometry and survival data from 2402 children aged between 0 and 24 mo in a rural area of the Democratic Republic of Congo with high malnutrition and mortality rates and limited nutritional rehabilitation. Analyses used Cox proportional hazard models and receiver operating characteristic curves. Univariate analysis and age-adjusted analysis showed predictive ability of all indices. Multivariate analysis without age adjustment showed that only very low weight velocity [HR = 3.82 (95%CI = 1.91, 7.63); P < 0.001] was independently predictive. With age adjustment, very low weight velocity [HR = 3.61 (95%CI = 1.80, 7.25); P < 0.001] was again solely retained as an independent predictor. There was no evidence for a difference in predictive ability between WFL and BMI-FA. This paper shows the value of attained BMI-FA, a marker of wasting status, and recent weight velocity, a marker of the wasting process, in predicting child death using the WHO child growth standards. WFL and BMI-FA appear equivalent as predictors.

  2. The predictive value of malnutrition - inflammation score on 1-year mortality in Turkish maintenance hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Ekrem; Sahutoglu, Tuncay; Ahbap, Elbis; Sakaci, Tamer; Koc, Yener; Basturk, Taner; Sevinc, Mustafa; Akgol, Cuneyt; Unsal, Abdulkadir

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS) on short-term mortality and to identify the best cut-off point in the Turkish maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) population. A total of 100 patients on MHD were included in this prospective single-center study. Demographic, anthropometric, and biochemical data were obtained from all patients. The study population was followed up as a 12-month prospective cohort to evaluate mortality as the primary outcome. Median (IQR) age and HD vintage of 100 patients (M/F: 52/48) were 53 (39.5 - 67) years and 53.5 (11 - 104.7) months, respectively. Deceased patients (n = 7) had significantly older age (years) (50 (38.5 - 63.5) vs. 70 (62 - 82), respectively, p = 0.001), lower spKt/V (1.60 (1.40 - 1.79) vs. 1.35 (0.90 - 1.50), respectively, p = 0.002), lower triceps skinfold thickness (14 (10 - 19) vs. 9 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.021) and higher MIS (5 (4 - 7) vs. 10 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.013). In the ROC analysis, we found that the optimal cut-off value of MIS for predicting death was 6.5 with 85.7% sensitivity and 62.4% specificity (positive and negative predictive values were 0.6951 and 0.8136, respectively). Advanced age, low spKt/V, and high MIS were found to be predictors of mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The 1-year mortality rate was significantly higher in MIS > 6.5 group compared to the MIS ≤ 6.5 group (14,3% (6/41) vs. 1.6% (1/59), respectively). Compared to MIS ≤ 6.5 group, 1 year survival time of the patients with MIS > 6.5 was found to be significantly lower (47.8 ± 0.16 vs. 43.6 ± 1.63 weeks, respectively, p (log-rank) = 0.012). MIS is a robust and independent predictor of short-term mortality in MHD patients. Patients with MIS > 6.5 had a significant risk, and additional risk factors associated with short-term mortality were advanced age and low spKt/V.

  3. Extravasation of contrast (Spot Sign) predicts in-hospital mortality in ruptured arteriovenous malformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Zengpanpan; Ai, Xiaolin; Zheng, Jun; Hu, Xin; You, Chao; Andrew M, Faramand; Fang, Fang

    2017-10-09

    The spot sign is a highly specific and sensitive predictor of hematoma expansion in following primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Rare cases of the spot sign have been documented in patients with intracranial hemorrhage secondary to arteriovenous malformation (AVM). The purpose of this retrospective study is to assess the accuracy of spot sign in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with ruptured AVM. A retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database was performed for patients who presented to West China Hospital with ICH secondary to AVM in the period between January 2009 and September 2016. Two radiologists blinded to the clinical data independently assessed the imaging data, including the presence of spot sign. Statistical analysis using univariate testing, multivariate logistic regression testing, and receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis was performed. A total of 116 patients were included. Overall, 18.9% (22/116) of subjects had at least 1 spot sign detected by CT angiography, 7% (8/116) died in hospital, and 27% (31/116) of the patients had a poor outcome after 90 days. The spot sign had a sensitivity of 62.5% and specificity of 84.3% for predicting in-hospital mortality (p = .02, AUC 0.734). No correlation detected between the spot sign and 90-day outcomes under multiple logistic regression (p = .19). The spot sign is an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality. The presence of spot sign did not correlate with the 90 day outcomes in this patient cohort. The results of this report suggest that patients with ruptured AVM with demonstrated the spot sign on imaging must receive aggressive treatment early on due to the high risk of mortality.

  4. COPD predicts mortality in HF: the Norwegian Heart Failure Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Blois, Jonathan; Simard, Serge; Atar, Dan; Agewall, Stefan

    2010-03-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic heart failure (HF) are common clinical conditions that share tobacco as a risk factor. Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic impact of COPD on HF patients. The Norwegian Heart Failure Registry was used. The study included 4132 HF patients (COPD, n = 699) from 22 hospitals (mean follow-up, 13.3 months). COPD patients were older, more often smokers and diabetics, less often on beta-blockers and had a higher heart rate. They were more often in New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class III or IV (COPD, 63%; no COPD, 51%), although left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) distribution was similar. COPD independently predicted death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.188; 95% CI: 1.015 to 1.391; P = 0.03) along with age, creatinine, NYHA Class III/IV (HR, 1.464; 95% CI: 1.286 to 1.667) and diabetes. beta-blockers at baseline were associated with improved survival in patients with LVEF < or =40% independently of COPD. COPD is associated with a poorer survival in HF patients. COPD patients are overrated in terms of NYHA class in comparison with patients with similar LVEF. Nonetheless, NYHA class remains the strongest predictor of death in these patients. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting mortality and incident immobility in older Belgian men by characteristics related to sarcopenia and frailty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, C; Goemaere, S; De Buyser, S

    2018-01-01

    and bone mineral density scores were the most important predictors. INTRODUCTION: Machine learning principles were used to predict 5-year mortality and 3-year incident severe immobility in a population of older men by frailty and sarcopenia characteristics. METHODS: Using prospective data from 1997 on 264......There is an increasing awareness of sarcopenia in older people. We applied machine learning principles to predict mortality and incident immobility in older Belgian men through sarcopenia and frailty characteristics. Mortality could be predicted with good accuracy. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D...... the most important predictors of immobility. Sarcopenia assessed by lean mass estimates was relevant to mortality prediction but not immobility prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Using advanced statistical models and a machine learning approach 5-year mortality can be predicted with good accuracy using a Bayesian...

  6. Depression as an independent prognostic factor for all-cause mortality after a hospital admission for worsening heart failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sokoreli, I; de Vries, J J G; Riistama, J M; Pauws, S C; Steyerberg, E W; Tesanovic, A; Geleijnse, G; Goode, K M; Crundall-Goode, A; Kazmi, S; Cleland, J G; Clark, A L

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Depression is associated with increased mortality amongst patients with chronic heart failure (HF). Whether depression is an independent predictor of outcome in patients admitted for worsening of HF is unclear. METHODS: OPERA-HF is an observational study enrolling patients hospitalized

  7. Performance of in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization: Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motomura Noboru

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective In-hospital mortality is an important performance measure for quality improvement, although it requires proper risk adjustment. We set out to develop in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization using a nation-wide electronic administrative record system in Japan. Methods Administrative records of 224,207 patients (patients discharged from 82 hospitals in Japan between July 1, 2002 and October 31, 2002 were randomly split into preliminary (179,156 records and test (45,051 records groups. Study variables included Major Diagnostic Category, age, gender, ambulance use, admission status, length of hospital stay, comorbidity, and in-hospital mortality. ICD-10 codes were converted to calculate comorbidity scores based on Quan's methodology. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was then performed using in-hospital mortality as a dependent variable. C-indexes were calculated across risk groups in order to evaluate model performances. Results In-hospital mortality rates were 2.68% and 2.76% for the preliminary and test datasets, respectively. C-index values were 0.869 for the model that excluded length of stay and 0.841 for the model that included length of stay. Conclusion Risk models developed in this study included a set of variables easily accessible from administrative data, and still successfully exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. These models can be used to estimate in-hospital mortality rates of various diagnoses and procedures.

  8. Impaired production of cytokines is an independent predictor of mortality in HIV-1-infected patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ostrowski, Sisse R; Gerstoft, Jan; Pedersen, Bente K

    2003-01-01

    With regard to the natural history of HIV-1 infection this study investigated whether whole-blood culture cytokine production was associated with mortality in HIV-1-infected patients.......With regard to the natural history of HIV-1 infection this study investigated whether whole-blood culture cytokine production was associated with mortality in HIV-1-infected patients....

  9. [Predictive value of the VMS theme 'Frail elderly': delirium, falling and mortality in elderly hospital patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Frederike M M; de Rooij, Sophia E J A; Schuurman, Truus; Duijvelaar, Karlijn M; van Munster, Barbara C

    2015-01-01

    To determine the predictive value of safety management system (VMS) screening questions for falling, delirium, and mortality, as punt down in the VMS theme 'Frail elderly'. Retrospective observational study. We selected all patients ≥ 70 years who were admitted to non-ICU wards at the Deventer Hospital, the Netherlands, for at least 24 hours between 28 March 2011 and 10 June 2011. On admission, patients were screened with the VMS instrument by a researcher. Delirium and falls were recorded during hospitalisation. Six months after hospitalisation, data on mortality were collected. We included 688 patients with a median age of 78.7 (range: 70.0-97.1); 50.7% was male. The sensitivity of the screening for delirium risk was 82%, the specificity 62%. The sensitivity of the screening for risk of falling was 63%, the specificity 65%. Independent predictors for mortality within 6 months were delirium risk (odds ratio (OR): 2.3; 95% CI 1.1-3.2), malnutrition (OR: 2.1; 95% CI 1.3-3.5), admission to a non-surgical ward (OR: 3.0; 95% CI 1.8-5.1), and older age (OR: 1.1; 95%CI 1.0-1.1). Patients classified by the VMS theme 'Frail elderly' as having more risk factors had a higher risk of dying (p instrument for identifying those elderly people with a high risk of developing this condition; the VMS sensitivity for fall risk is moderate. The number of positive VMS risk factors correlates with mortality and may therefore be regarded as a measure of frailty.

  10. Nutritional Status Predicts 10-Year Mortality in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease on Hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin Sook Kang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Protein-energy wasting (PEW is associated with mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD on maintenance hemodialysis. The correct diagnosis of PEW is extremely important in order to predict clinical outcomes. However, it is unclear which parameters should be used to diagnose PEW. Therefore, this retrospective observational study investigated the relationship between mortality and nutritional parameters in ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. A total of 144 patients were enrolled. Nutritional parameters, including body mass index, serum albumin, dietary intake, normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR, and malnutrition inflammation score (MIS, were measured at baseline. Fifty-three patients died during the study. Survivors had significantly higher nPCR (1.10 ± 0.24 g/kg/day vs. 1.01 ± 0.21 g/kg/day; p = 0.048, energy intake (26.7 ± 5.8 kcal/kg vs. 24.3 ± 4.2 kcal/kg; p = 0.009 and protein intake (0.91 ± 0.21 g/kg vs. 0.82 ± 0.24 g/kg; p = 0.020, and lower MIS (5.2 ± 2.3 vs. 6.1 ± 2.1, p = 0.039. In multivariable analysis, energy intake <25 kcal/kg (HR 1.860, 95% CI 1.018–3.399; p = 0.044 and MIS > 5 (HR 2.146, 95% CI 1.173–3.928; p = 0.013 were independent variables associated with all-cause mortality. These results suggest that higher MIS and lower energy intake are harmful to ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Optimal energy intake could reduce mortality in these patients.

  11. The Rural Inpatient Mortality Study: Does Urban-Rural County Classification Predict Hospital Mortality in California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linnen, Daniel T; Kornak, John; Stephens, Caroline

    2018-03-28

    Evidence suggests an association between rurality and decreased life expectancy. To determine whether rural hospitals have higher hospital mortality, given that very sick patients may be transferred to regional hospitals. In this ecologic study, we combined Medicare hospital mortality ratings (N = 1267) with US census data, critical access hospital classification, and National Center for Health Statistics urban-rural county classifications. Ratings included mortality for coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart attack, heart failure, and pneumonia across 277 California hospitals between July 2011 and June 2014. We used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the association of urban-rural county classifications on mortality ratings. Unfavorable Medicare hospital mortality rating "worse than the national rate" compared with "better" or "same." Compared with large central "metro" (metropolitan) counties, hospitals in medium-sized metro counties had 6.4 times the odds of rating "worse than the national rate" for hospital mortality (95% confidence interval = 2.8-14.8, p centers may contribute to these results, a potential factor that future research should examine.

  12. Simple Scoring System to Predict In-Hospital Mortality After Surgery for Infective Endocarditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatti, Giuseppe; Perrotti, Andrea; Obadia, Jean-François; Duval, Xavier; Iung, Bernard; Alla, François; Chirouze, Catherine; Selton-Suty, Christine; Hoen, Bruno; Sinagra, Gianfranco; Delahaye, François; Tattevin, Pierre; Le Moing, Vincent; Pappalardo, Aniello; Chocron, Sidney

    2017-07-20

    Aspecific scoring systems are used to predict the risk of death postsurgery in patients with infective endocarditis (IE). The purpose of the present study was both to analyze the risk factors for in-hospital death, which complicates surgery for IE, and to create a mortality risk score based on the results of this analysis. Outcomes of 361 consecutive patients (mean age, 59.1±15.4 years) who had undergone surgery for IE in 8 European centers of cardiac surgery were recorded prospectively, and a risk factor analysis (multivariable logistic regression) for in-hospital death was performed. The discriminatory power of a new predictive scoring system was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Score validation procedures were carried out. Fifty-six (15.5%) patients died postsurgery. BMI >27 kg/m 2 (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; P =0.049), estimated glomerular filtration rate 55 mm Hg (OR, 1.78; P =0.032), and critical state (OR, 2.37; P =0.017) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. A scoring system was devised to predict in-hospital death postsurgery for IE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.780; 95% CI, 0.734-0.822). The score performed better than 5 of 6 scoring systems for in-hospital death after cardiac surgery that were considered. A simple scoring system based on risk factors for in-hospital death was specifically created to predict mortality risk postsurgery in patients with IE. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  13. Monitoring of the newborn dog and prediction of neonatal mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, Hanna; Grellet, Aurélien; Delebarre, Marine; Mariani, Claire; Feugier, Alexandre; Chastant-Maillard, Sylvie

    2017-08-01

    Despite the high neonatal mortality rate in puppies, pertinent criteria for health evaluation of the newborns are not defined. This study was thus designed to measure and to characterize factors of variation of six health parameters in dog neonates, and to evaluate their value as predictors of neonatal mortality. A total of 347 purebred puppies under identical conditions of housing and management were examined within the first 8h after birth and then at Day 1. The first health evaluation included Apgar score, weight, blood glucose, lactate and β-hydroxybutyrate concentration, rectal temperature and urine specific gravity (SG). The second evaluation at Day 1 included the same parameters, excluding Apgar score and weight. The mortality rate over the first 24h and over 21days of age was recorded. The early predictors of neonatal mortality in the dog were determined with generalized linear mixed models and receiver operating characteristic curves analyses. An Apgar score at or below 6 evaluated within the first 8h after birth was found associated with a higher risk of death during the first 24h. A reduced glucose concentration (≤92mg/dl) at Day 1 was found to be associated with higher mortality between 1 and 21days of age. Low-birth-weight puppies were characterized by both low viability (low Apgar score) and low blood glucose concentration, and thus were found indirectly at higher risk of neonatal mortality. This study promotes two low cost easy-to-use tests for health evaluation in puppies, i.e. Apgar scoring and blood glucose assay. Further investigation is necessary to establish if the strong relationship between blood glucose and neonatal survival reflects high energy requirements or other benefits from colostrum intake. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Malnutrition: a highly predictive risk factor of short-term mortality in elderly presenting to the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentile, S; Lacroix, O; Durand, A C; Cretel, E; Alazia, M; Sambuc, R; Bonin-Guillaume, S

    2013-04-01

    To identify independent risk factors of mortality among elderly patients in the 3 months after their visit (T3) to an emergency department (ED). Prospective cohort study. University hospital ED in an urban setting in France. One hundred seventy-three patients aged 75 and older were admitted to the ED over two weeks (18.7% of the 924 ED visits). Of these, 164 patients (94.8%) were included in our study, and 157 (95.7%) of them were followed three months after their ED visit. During the inclusion period (T0), a standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on socio-demographic and environmental characteristics, ED visit circumstances, medical conditions and geriatric assessment including functional and nutritional status. Three months after the ED visits (T3), patients or their caregivers were interviewed to collect data on vital status, and ED return or hospitalization. Among the 157 patients followed at T3, 14.6% had died, 19.9% had repeated ED visits, and 63.1% had been hospitalized. The two independent predictive factors for mortality within the 3 months after ED visit were: malnutrition screened by the Mini Nutritional Assessment short-form (MNA-SF) (OR=20.2; 95% CI: 5.74-71.35; pMalnutrition is the strongest independent risk factor predicting short-term mortality in elderly patients visiting the ED, and it was easily detected by MNA-SF and supported from the ED visit.

  15. Low Transvalvular Flow Rate Predicts Mortality in Patients With Low-Gradient Aortic Stenosis Following Aortic Valve Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vamvakidou, Anastasia; Jin, Wenying; Danylenko, Oleksandr; Chahal, Navtej; Khattar, Rajdeep; Senior, Roxy

    2018-03-09

    This study aimed to assess the value of low transvalvular flow rate (FR) for the prediction of mortality compared with low stroke volume index (SVi) in patients with low-gradient (mean gradient: gradient AS who had undergone valve intervention. We retrospectively followed prospectively assessed consecutive patients with low-gradient, low aortic valve area AS who underwent aortic valve intervention between 2010 and 2014 for all-cause mortality. Of the 218 patients with mean age 75 ± 12 years, 102 (46.8%) had low stroke volume index (SVi) (gradient, low valve area aortic stenosis undergoing aortic valve intervention, low FR, not low SVi, was an independent predictor of medium-term mortality. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Progesterone receptor levels independently predict survival in endometrial adenocarcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nyholm, H C; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Nielsen, Anette Lynge

    1995-01-01

    to correlations to cancer-specific survival in a multivariate analysis including histopathological characteristics. Median patient follow-up time was 67 months with 18 cancer deaths. The PR-DCC and ER-DCC values were dichotomized according to levels previously found by us to correspond to the best agreement...... between receptor status as determined by the DCC and ICA methods (130 fmol/mg cytosol protein for ER, 114 fmol/mg for PR). Using these thresholds, we found by multivariate analysis that "high" PR-DCC levels (> 114 fmol/mg) correlated significantly (P = 0.004) with survival, independent of stage risk group...... could not be statistically evaluated due to the number of cases with eligible ICA values. However, we suggest that owing to a close correlation between DCC and ICA results, PR-ICA status may provide significant prognostic information when DCC measurements are not available....

  17. TV viewing time is associated with increased all-cause mortality in Brazilian adults independent of physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turi, B C; Monteiro, H L; Lemes, Í R; Codogno, J S; Lynch, K R; Asahi Mesquita, C A; Fernandes, R A

    2018-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between television (TV) viewing and all-cause mortality among Brazilian adults after 6 years of follow-up. This longitudinal study started in 2010 in the city of Bauru, SP, Brazil, and involved 970 adults aged ≥50 years. Mortality was reported by relatives and confirmed in medical records of the Brazilian National Health System. Physical activity (PA) and TV viewing were assessed by the Baecke questionnaire. Health status, sociodemographic and behavioral covariates were considered as potential confounders. After 6 years of follow-up, 89 deaths were registered (9.2% [95% CI=7.4%-11%]). Type 2 diabetes mellitus was associated with higher risk of mortality (P-value=.012). Deaths correlated significantly with age (ρ=.188; P-value=.001), overall PA score (ρ=-.128; P-value=.001) and TV viewing (ρ=.086; P-value=.007). Lower percentage of participants reported TV viewing time as often (16%) and very often (5.7%), but there was an association between higher TV viewing time ("often" and "very often" grouped together) and increased mortality after 6 years of follow-up (P-value=.006). The higher TV viewing time was associated with a 44.7% increase in all-cause mortality (HR=1.447 [1.019-2.055]), independently of other potential confounders. In conclusion, the findings from this cohort study identified increased risk of mortality among adults with higher TV viewing time, independently of PA and other variables. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Stroke-induced immunodepression and dysphagia independently predict stroke-associated pneumonia - The PREDICT study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sarah; Harms, Hendrik; Ulm, Lena; Nabavi, Darius G; Mackert, Bruno-Marcel; Schmehl, Ingo; Jungehulsing, Gerhard J; Montaner, Joan; Bustamante, Alejandro; Hermans, Marcella; Hamilton, Frank; Göhler, Jos; Malzahn, Uwe; Malsch, Carolin; Heuschmann, Peter U; Meisel, Christian; Meisel, Andreas

    2017-12-01

    Stroke-associated pneumonia is a frequent complication after stroke associated with poor outcome. Dysphagia is a known risk factor for stroke-associated pneumonia but accumulating evidence suggests that stroke induces an immunodepressive state increasing susceptibility for stroke-associated pneumonia. We aimed to confirm that stroke-induced immunodepression syndrome is associated with stroke-associated pneumonia independently from dysphagia by investigating the predictive properties of monocytic HLA-DR expression as a marker of immunodepression as well as biomarkers for inflammation (interleukin-6) and infection (lipopolysaccharide-binding protein). This was a prospective, multicenter study with 11 study sites in Germany and Spain, including 486 patients with acute ischemic stroke. Daily screening for stroke-associated pneumonia, dysphagia and biomarkers was performed. Frequency of stroke-associated pneumonia was 5.2%. Dysphagia and decreased monocytic HLA-DR were independent predictors for stroke-associated pneumonia in multivariable regression analysis. Proportion of pneumonia ranged between 0.9% in the higher monocytic HLA-DR quartile (≥21,876 mAb/cell) and 8.5% in the lower quartile (≤12,369 mAb/cell). In the presence of dysphagia, proportion of pneumonia increased to 5.9% and 18.8%, respectively. Patients without dysphagia and normal monocytic HLA-DR expression had no stroke-associated pneumonia risk. We demonstrate that dysphagia and stroke-induced immunodepression syndrome are independent risk factors for stroke-associated pneumonia. Screening for immunodepression and dysphagia might be useful for identifying patients at high risk for stroke-associated pneumonia.

  19. Prevalent and incident tuberculosis are independent risk factors for mortality among patients accessing antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur Gupta

    Full Text Available Patients with prevalent or incident tuberculosis (TB in antiretroviral treatment (ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa have high mortality risk. However, published data are contradictory as to whether TB is a risk factor for mortality that is independent of CD4 cell counts and other patient characteristics.This observational ART cohort study was based in Cape Town, South Africa. Deaths from all causes were ascertained among patients receiving ART for up to 8 years. TB diagnoses and 4-monthly CD4 cell counts were recorded. Mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR and identify risk factors for mortality. Of 1544 patients starting ART, 464 patients had prevalent TB at baseline and 424 developed incident TB during a median of 5.0 years follow-up. Most TB diagnoses (73.6% were culture-confirmed. A total of 208 (13.5% patients died during ART and mortality rates were 8.84 deaths/100 person-years during the first year of ART and decreased to 1.14 deaths/100 person-years after 5 years. In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline and time-updated risk factors, both prevalent and incident TB were independent risk factors for mortality (IRR 1.7 [95% CI, 1.2-2.3] and 2.7 [95% CI, 1.9-3.8], respectively. Adjusted mortality risks were higher in the first 6 months of ART for those with prevalent TB at baseline (IRR 2.33; 95% CI, 1.5-3.5 and within the 6 months following diagnoses of incident TB (IRR 3.8; 95% CI, 2.6-5.7.Prevalent TB at baseline and incident TB during ART were strongly associated with increased mortality risk. This effect was time-dependent, suggesting that TB and mortality are likely to be causally related and that TB is not simply an epiphenomenon among highly immunocompromised patients. Strategies to rapidly diagnose, treat and prevent TB prior to and during ART urgently need to be implemented.

  20. Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

  1. Mortality Risk from Co-Morbidities independent of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Status: NCI SEER-based Cohort Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swede, Helen; Sarwar, Amna; Magge, Anil; Braithwaite, Dejana; Cook, Linda S.; Gregorio, David I.; Jones, Beth A; Hoag, Jessica; Gonsalves, Lou; Salner, Andrew; Zarfos, Kristen; Andemariam, Biree; Stevens, Richard G; Dugan, Alicia; Pensa, Mellisa; Brockmeyer, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    Purpose A comparatively high prevalence of co-morbidities among African-American/Blacks (AA/B) has been implicated in disparate survival in breast cancer. There is a scarcity of data, however, if this effect persists when accounting for the adverse triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) subtype which occurs at three-fold the rate in AA/B compared to white breast cancer patients. Methods We reviewed charts of 214 white and 202 AA/B breast cancer patients in the NCI-SEER Connecticut Tumor Registry who were diagnosed in 2000-07. We employed the Charlson Co-Morbidity Index (CCI), a weighted 17-item tool to predict risk of death in cancer populations. Cox Survival Analyses estimated hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause mortality in relation to TNBC and CCI adjusting for clinicopathological factors. Results Among patients with SEER-Local Stage, TNBC increased the risk of death (HR=2.18, 95% CI 1.14-4.16), which was attenuated when the CCI score was added to the model (Adj. HR=1.50, 95% CI 0.74-3.01). Conversely, the adverse impact of the CCI score persisted when controlling for TNBC (Adj. HR=1.49, 95% CI 1.29-1.71; per one point increase). Similar patterns were observed in SEER-Regional Stage but estimated HRs were lower. AA/B patients with a CCI score of ≥3 had a significantly higher risk of death compared to AA/B patients without comorbidities (Adj. HR=5.65, 95% CI 2.90-11.02). A lower and non-significant effect was observed for whites with a CCI of ≥3 (Adj. HR=1.90, 95% CI 0.68-5.29). Conclusions Co-morbidities at diagnosis increase risk of death independent of TNBC, and AA/B patients may be disproportionately at risk. PMID:27000206

  2. Mortality risk from comorbidities independent of triple-negative breast cancer status: NCI-SEER-based cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swede, Helen; Sarwar, Amna; Magge, Anil; Braithwaite, Dejana; Cook, Linda S; Gregorio, David I; Jones, Beth A; R Hoag, Jessica; Gonsalves, Lou; L Salner, Andrew; Zarfos, Kristen; Andemariam, Biree; Stevens, Richard G; G Dugan, Alicia; Pensa, Mellisa; A Brockmeyer, Jessica

    2016-05-01

    A comparatively high prevalence of comorbidities among African-American/Blacks (AA/B) has been implicated in disparate survival in breast cancer. There is a scarcity of data, however, if this effect persists when accounting for the adverse triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) subtype which occurs at threefold the rate in AA/B compared to white breast cancer patients. We reviewed charts of 214 white and 202 AA/B breast cancer patients in the NCI-SEER Connecticut Tumor Registry who were diagnosed in 2000-2007. We employed the Charlson Co-Morbidity Index (CCI), a weighted 17-item tool to predict risk of death in cancer populations. Cox survival analyses estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality in relation to TNBC and CCI adjusting for clinicopathological factors. Among patients with SEER local stage, TNBC increased the risk of death (HR 2.18, 95 % CI 1.14-4.16), which was attenuated when the CCI score was added to the model (Adj. HR 1.50, 95 % CI 0.74-3.01). Conversely, the adverse impact of the CCI score persisted when controlling for TNBC (Adj. HR 1.49, 95 % CI 1.29-1.71; per one point increase). Similar patterns were observed in SEER regional stage, but estimated HRs were lower. AA/B patients with a CCI score of ≥3 had a significantly higher risk of death compared to AA/B patients without comorbidities (Adj. HR 5.65, 95 % CI 2.90-11.02). A lower and nonsignificant effect was observed for whites with a CCI of ≥3 (Adj. HR 1.90, 95 % CI 0.68-5.29). comorbidities at diagnosis increase risk of death independent of TNBC, and AA/B patients may be disproportionately at risk.

  3. External validation of a biomarker and clinical prediction model for hospital mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhiguo; Wickersham, Nancy; Kangelaris, Kirsten N; May, Addison K; Bernard, Gordon R; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Koyama, Tatsuki; Ware, Lorraine B

    2017-08-01

    Mortality prediction in ARDS is important for prognostication and risk stratification. However, no prediction models have been independently validated. A combination of two biomarkers with age and APACHE III was superior in predicting mortality in the NHLBI ARDSNet ALVEOLI trial. We validated this prediction tool in two clinical trials and an observational cohort. The validation cohorts included 849 patients from the NHLBI ARDSNet Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), 144 patients from a clinical trial of sivelestat for ARDS (STRIVE), and 545 ARDS patients from the VALID observational cohort study. To evaluate the performance of the prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model discrimination, and calibration were assessed, and recalibration methods were applied. The biomarker/clinical prediction model performed well in all cohorts. Performance was better in the clinical trials with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) in FACTT, compared to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77) in VALID, a more heterogeneous observational cohort. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) when FACTT and VALID were combined. We validated a mortality prediction model for ARDS that includes age, APACHE III, surfactant protein D, and interleukin-8 in a variety of clinical settings. Although the model performance as measured by AUC was lower than in the original model derivation cohort, the biomarker/clinical model still performed well and may be useful for risk assessment for clinical trial enrollment, an issue of increasing importance as ARDS mortality declines, and better methods are needed for selection of the most severely ill patients for inclusion.

  4. Microvascular remodelling in preeclampsia: quantifying capillary rarefaction accurately and independently predicts preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonios, Tarek F T; Nama, Vivek; Wang, Duolao; Manyonda, Isaac T

    2013-09-01

    Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity. The incidence of preeclampsia seems to be rising because of increased prevalence of predisposing disorders, such as essential hypertension, diabetes, and obesity, and there is increasing evidence to suggest widespread microcirculatory abnormalities before the onset of preeclampsia. We hypothesized that quantifying capillary rarefaction could be helpful in the clinical prediction of preeclampsia. We measured skin capillary density according to a well-validated protocol at 5 consecutive predetermined visits in 322 consecutive white women, of whom 16 subjects developed preeclampsia. We found that structural capillary rarefaction at 20-24 weeks of gestation yielded a sensitivity of 0.87 with a specificity of 0.50 at the cutoff of 2 capillaries/field with the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic value of 0.70, whereas capillary rarefaction at 27-32 weeks of gestation yielded a sensitivity of 0.75 and a higher specificity of 0.77 at the cutoff of 8 capillaries/field with area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic value of 0.82. Combining capillary rarefaction with uterine artery Doppler pulsatility index increased the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction. Multivariable analysis shows that the odds of preeclampsia are increased in women with previous history of preeclampsia or chronic hypertension and in those with increased uterine artery Doppler pulsatility index, but the most powerful and independent predictor of preeclampsia was capillary rarefaction at 27-32 weeks. Quantifying structural rarefaction of skin capillaries in pregnancy is a potentially useful clinical marker for the prediction of preeclampsia.

  5. Validation of lactate clearance at 6 h for mortality prediction in critically ill children

    OpenAIRE

    Rajeev Kumar; Nirmal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims: To validate the lactate clearance (LC) at 6 h for mortality prediction in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU)-admitted patients and its comparison with a pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM 2) score. Design: A prospective, observational study in a tertiary care center. Materials and Methods: Children

  6. Performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 In Predicting Hospital Mortality In Emergency Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Bian Ma

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: The SAPS 3 score system exhibited satisfactory performance even superior to APACHE II in discrimination. In predicting hospital mortality, SAPS 3 did not exhibit good calibration and overestimated hospital mortality, which demonstrated that SAPS 3 needs improvement in the future.

  7. Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs : A validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

    2016-01-01

    Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month

  8. Inflammation biomarkers and mortality prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-27)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Landman, Gijs W. D.; Kleefstra, Nanne; Groenier, Klaas H.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Groeneveld, Geert H.; Bilo, Henk J. G.; van Hateren, Kornelis J. J.

    Background: C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) are inflammation markers associated with long-term mortality risk. We compared the associations and predictive capacities of CRP, PCT and MR-proADM with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients

  9. Midline shift in relation to thickness of traumatic acute subdural hematoma predicts mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bartels, R.H.M.A.; Meijer, F.J.; Hoeven, H. van der; Edwards, M.J.; Prokop, M.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Traumatic acute subdural hematoma has a high mortality despite intensive treatment. Despite the existence of several prediction models, it is very hard to predict an outcome. We investigated whether a specific combination of initial head CT-scan findings is a factor in predicting

  10. Acute aluminium phosphide poisoning: Can we predict mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashu Mathai

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In India, acute aluminium phosphide poisoning (AAlPP is a serious health care problem. This study aimed to determine the characteristics of AAlPP and the predictors of mortality at the time of patients′ admission. We studied consecutive admissions of patients with AAlPP admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU between November 2004 and October 2006. We noted 38 parameters at admission to the hospital and the ICU and compared survivor and non-survivor groups. A total of 27 patients were enrolled comprising5 females and 22 males and the mean ingested dose of poison was 0.75 ± 0.745 grams. Hypotension was noted in 24 patients (89% at admission and electrocardiogram abnormalities were noted in 13 patients (48.1%. The mean pH on admission was 7.20 ± 0.14 and the mean bicarbonate concentration was 12.32 ± 5.45 mmol/ L. The mortality from AAlPP was 59.3%. We found the following factors to be associated with an increased risk of mortality: a serum creatinine concentration of more than 1.0 mg % (P = 0.01, pH value less than 7.2 (P = 0.014, serum bicarbonate value less than 15 mmol/L (P = 0.048, need for mechanical ventilation (P = 0.045, need for vasoactive drugs like dobutamine (P = 0.027 and nor adrenaline (P = 0.048 and a low APACHE II score at admission (P = 0.019. AAlPP causes high mortality primarily due to early haemodynamic failure and multi-organ dysfunction

  11. Monitoring and Predicting Traffic Induced Vertebrate Mortality Near Wetlands

    OpenAIRE

    DeWoody, J. Andrew; Nogle, Jamie M.; Hoover, Melissa; Dunning, Barny

    2010-01-01

    Animal-vehicle collisions are undesirable to the general public, to drivers, to insurance providers, to biologists, and presumably to the animals themselves. However, traffic-induced mortality (―roadkill‖) is difficult to mitigate in large part because scientists lack the empirical data required to understand the patterns and processes associated with roadkill. Roadkill is not randomly distributed in space or in time, but what are the primary determinants of roadkill? And do they differ acros...

  12. One- and 2-Year Mortality Prediction for Patients Starting Chronic Dialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikko Haapio

    2017-11-01

    Discussion: Mortality prediction algorithms could be more widely implemented into management of ESRD patients. The presented models are practical with only a limited number of variables and fairly good performance.

  13. Low serum leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholze, Alexandra; Rattensperger, Dirk; Zidek, Walter

    2007-01-01

    Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy....

  14. Low plasma arginine:asymmetric dimethyl arginine ratios predict mortality after intracranial aneurysm rupture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staalsø, Jonatan Myrup; Bergström, Anita; Edsen, Troels

    2013-01-01

    Asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthases, predicts mortality in cardiovascular disease and has been linked to cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). In this prospective study, we assessed whether circulating ADMA, arginine...

  15. Mean glucose level is not an independent risk factor for mortality in mixed ICU patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligtenberg, JJM; Meijering, S; Stienstra, Y; van der Horst, ICC; Vogelzang, M; Nijsten, MWN; Tulleken, JE; Zijlstra, JG

    Objective: To find out if there is an association between hyperglycaemia and mortality in mixed ICU patients. Design and setting: Retrospective cohort study over a 2-year period at the medical ICU of a university hospital. Measurements: Admission glucose, maximum and mean glucose, length of stay,

  16. A biological approach to the interspecies prediction of radiation-induced mortality risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D.; Olshansky, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    Evolutionary explanations for why sexually reproducing organisms grow old suggest that the forces of natural selection affect the ages when diseases occur that are subject to a genetic influence (referred to here as intrinsic diseases). When extended to the population level for a species, this logic leads to the general prediction that age-specific death rates from intrinsic causes should begin to rise as the force of selection wanes once the characteristic age of sexual maturity is attained. Results consistent with these predictions have been found for laboratory mice, beagles, and humans where, after adjusting for differences in life span, it was demonstrated that these species share a common age pattern of mortality for intrinsic causes of death. In quantitative models used to predict radiation-induced mortality, risks are often expressed as multiples of those observed in a control population. A control population, however, is an aging population. As such, mortality risks related to exposure must be interpreted relative to the age-specific risk of death associated with aging. Given the previous success in making interspecies predictions of age-related mortality, the purpose of this study was to determine whether radiation-induced mortality observed in one species could also be predicted quantitatively from a model used to describe the mortality consequences of exposure to radiation in a different species. Mortality data for B6CF 1 mice and beagles exposed to 60 Co γ-rays for the duration of life were used for analysis

  17. Clinical utility of EMSE and STESS in predicting hospital mortality for status epilepticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Chen, Deng; Xu, Da; Tan, Ge; Liu, Ling

    2018-05-25

    To explore the applicability of the epidemiology-based mortality score in status epilepticus (EMSE) and the status epilepticus severity score (STESS) in predicting hospital mortality in patients with status epilepticus (SE) in western China. Furthermore, we sought to compare the abilities of the two scales to predict mortality from convulsive status epilepticus (CSE) and non-convulsive status epilepticus (NCSE). Patients with epilepsy (n = 253) were recruited from the West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2012 to January 2016. The EMSE and STESS for all patients were calculated immediately after admission. The main outcome was in-hospital death. The predicted values were analysed using SPSS 22.0 receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Of the 253 patients with SE who were included in the study, 39 (15.4%) died in the hospital. Using STESS ≥4 points to predict SE mortality, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.724 (P  0.05), while EMSE ≥90 points gave an AUC of 0.666 (P > 0.05). The hospital mortality rate from SE in this study was 15.4%. Those with STESS ≥4 points or EMSE ≥79 points had higher rates of SE mortality. Both STESS and EMSE are less useful predicting in-hospital mortality in NCSE compared to CSE. Furthermore, the EMSE has some advantages over the STESS. Copyright © 2018 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. [Value of sepsis single-disease manage system in predicting mortality in patients with sepsis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J; Wang, L H; Ouyang, B; Chen, M Y; Wu, J F; Liu, Y J; Liu, Z M; Guan, X D

    2018-04-03

    Objective: To observe the effect of sepsis single-disease manage system on the improvement of sepsis treatment and the value in predicting mortality in patients with sepsis. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted. Patients with sepsis admitted to the Department of Surgical Intensive Care Unit of Sun Yat-Sen University First Affiliated Hospital from September 22, 2013 to May 5, 2015 were enrolled in this study. Sepsis single-disease manage system (Rui Xin clinical data manage system, China data, China) was used to monitor 25 clinical quality parameters, consisting of timeliness, normalization and outcome parameters. Based on whether these quality parameters could be completed or not, the clinical practice was evaluated by the system. The unachieved quality parameter was defined as suspicious parameters, and these suspicious parameters were used to predict mortality of patients with receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: A total of 1 220 patients with sepsis were enrolled, included 805 males and 415 females. The mean age was (59±17) years, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE Ⅱ) scores was 19±8. The area under ROC curve of total suspicious numbers for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.70; when the suspicious parameters number was more than 6, the sensitivity was 68.0% and the specificity was 61.0% for predicting 28-day mortality. In addition, the area under ROC curve of outcome suspicious number for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.89; when the suspicious outcome parameters numbers was more than 1, the sensitivity was 88.0% and the specificity was 78.0% for predicting 28-day mortality. Moreover, the area under ROC curve of total suspicious number for predicting 90-day mortality was 0.73; when the total suspicious parameters number was more than 7, the sensitivity was 60.0% and the specificity was 74.0% for predicting 90-day mortality. Finally, the area under ROC curve of outcome suspicious numbers for predicting 90

  19. Crisis of Meaning Predicts Suicidality in Youth Independently of Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnell, Tatjana; Gerstner, Rebekka; Krampe, Henning

    2018-02-23

    At times, the question for meaning comes to nothing and a crisis of meaning ensues. This state is very painful, but difficult to account. Both those who suffer from it and care professionals find themselves at a loss for words. This study introduces an operationalization of a crisis of meaning. It aims to distinguish the concept from depression, and to investigate whether a crisis of meaning can explain suicidality beyond the known protective and risk factors self-esteem, family functioning, life-event load, and depression. Final-year school pupils in Ecuador (N = 300) completed questionnaires assessing the above variables. Data were analyzed using chi-square, hierarchic multiple regression, serial mediation, and moderator analyses. Crisis of meaning was distinguished from depression. It explained a significant amount of variance in suicidality beyond the mentioned protective and risk factors. For males, crisis of meaning was the only significant risk factor, and the strongest predictor overall. The acute risk factors depression and crisis of meaning mediated the effects of the baseline factors self-esteem, family functioning, and life-event load on suicidality. The study was cross-sectional; assessed factors predicted variance in suicidal thoughts, plans, and past suicide attempts, while their relevance cannot be generalized to actual future suicide attempts. A crisis of meaning is an important factor to take into account in further research on the prevention and treatment of people at risk of suicide.

  20. A Risk Prediction Score for Kidney Failure or Mortality in Rhabdomyolysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Gearoid M.; Zeng, Xiaoxi; Waikar, Sushrut S.

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Rhabdomyolysis ranges in severity from asymptomatic elevations in creatine phosphokinase levels to a life-threatening disorder characterized by severe acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis or continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT). OBJECTIVE To develop a risk prediction tool to identify patients at greatest risk of RRT or in-hospital mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective cohort study of 2371 patients admitted between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2011, to 2 large teaching hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts, with creatine phosphokinase levels in excess of 5000 U/L within 3 days of admission. The derivation cohort consisted of 1397 patients from Massachusetts General Hospital, and the validation cohort comprised 974 patients from Brigham and Women’s Hospital. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The composite of RRT or in-hospital mortality. RESULTS The causes and outcomes of rhabdomyolysis were similar between the derivation and validation cohorts. In total, the composite outcome occurred in 19.0% of patients (8.0% required RRT and 14.1% died during hospitalization). The highest rates of the composite outcome were from compartment syndrome (41.2%), sepsis (39.3%), and following cardiac arrest (58.5%). The lowest rates were from myositis (1.7%), exercise (3.2%), and seizures (6.0%). The independent predictors of the composite outcome were age, female sex, cause of rhabdomyolysis, and values of initial creatinine, creatine phosphokinase, phosphate, calcium, and bicarbonate. We developed a risk-prediction score from these variables in the derivation cohort and subsequently applied it in the validation cohort. The C statistic for the prediction model was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.80–0.85) in the derivation cohort and 0.83 (0.80–0.86) in the validation cohort. The Hosmer-Lemeshow P values were .14 and .28, respectively. In the validation cohort, among the patients with the lowest risk score (10), 61.2% died or needed RRT. CONCLUSIONS AND

  1. Penalized regression techniques for prediction: a case study for predicting tree mortality using remotely sensed vegetation indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lazaridis, D.C.; Verbesselt, J.; Robinson, A.P.

    2011-01-01

    Constructing models can be complicated when the available fitting data are highly correlated and of high dimension. However, the complications depend on whether the goal is prediction instead of estimation. We focus on predicting tree mortality (measured as the number of dead trees) from change

  2. The Prediction of Drought-Related Tree Mortality in Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwinning, S.; Jensen, J.; Lomas, M. R.; Schwartz, B.; Woodward, F. I.

    2013-12-01

    Drought-related tree die-off events at regional scales have been reported from all wooded continents and it has been suggested that their frequency may be increasing. The prediction of these drought-related die-off events from regional to global scales has been recognized as a critical need for the conservation of forest resources and improving the prediction of climate-vegetation interactions. However, there is no conceptual consensus on how to best approach the quantitative prediction of tree mortality. Current models use a variety of mechanisms to represent demographic events. Mortality is modeled to represent a number of different processes, including death by fire, wind throw, extreme temperatures, and self-thinning, and each vegetation model differs in the emphasis they place on specific mechanisms. Dynamic global vegetation models generally operate on the assumption of incremental vegetation shift due to changes in the carbon economy of plant functional types and proportional effects on recruitment, growth, competition and mortality, but this may not capture sudden and sweeping tree death caused by extreme weather conditions. We tested several different approaches to predicting tree mortality within the framework of the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. We applied the model to the state of Texas, USA, which in 2011 experienced extreme drought conditions, causing the death of an estimated 300 million trees statewide. We then compared predicted to actual mortality to determine which algorithms most accurately predicted geographical variation in tree mortality. We discuss implications regarding the ongoing debate on the causes of tree death.

  3. Independent and combined effects of maternal smoking and solid fuel on infant and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinyemi, Joshua O; Adedini, Sunday A; Wandera, Stephen O; Odimegwu, Clifford O

    2016-12-01

    To estimate the independent and combined risks of infant and child mortality associated with maternal smoking and use of solid fuel in sub-Saharan Africa. Pooled weighted data on 143 602 under-five children in the most recent demographic and health surveys for 15 sub-Saharan African countries were analysed. The synthetic cohort life table technique and Cox proportional hazard models were employed to investigate the effect of maternal smoking and solid cooking fuel on infant (age 0-11 months) and child (age 12-59 months) mortality. Socio-economic and other confounding variables were included as controls. The distribution of the main explanatory variable in households was as follows: smoking + solid fuel - 4.6%; smoking + non-solid fuel - 0.22%; no smoking + solid fuel - 86.9%; and no smoking + non-solid fuel - 8.2%. The highest infant mortality rate was recorded among children exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (72 per 1000 live births); the child mortality rate was estimated to be 54 per 1000 for this group. In full multivariate models, the risk of infant death was 71% higher among those exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (HR = 1.71, CI: 1.29-2.28). For ages 12 to 59 months, the risk of death was 99% higher (HR = 1.99, CI: 1.28-3.08). Combined exposures to cigarette smoke and solid fuel increase the risks of infant and child mortality. Mothers of under-five children need to be educated about the danger of smoking while innovative approaches are needed to reduce the mortality risks associated with solid cooking fuel. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. A Method of Calculating Functional Independence Measure at Discharge from Functional Independence Measure Effectiveness Predicted by Multiple Regression Analysis Has a High Degree of Predictive Accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokunaga, Makoto; Watanabe, Susumu; Sonoda, Shigeru

    2017-09-01

    Multiple linear regression analysis is often used to predict the outcome of stroke rehabilitation. However, the predictive accuracy may not be satisfactory. The objective of this study was to elucidate the predictive accuracy of a method of calculating motor Functional Independence Measure (mFIM) at discharge from mFIM effectiveness predicted by multiple regression analysis. The subjects were 505 patients with stroke who were hospitalized in a convalescent rehabilitation hospital. The formula "mFIM at discharge = mFIM effectiveness × (91 points - mFIM at admission) + mFIM at admission" was used. By including the predicted mFIM effectiveness obtained through multiple regression analysis in this formula, we obtained the predicted mFIM at discharge (A). We also used multiple regression analysis to directly predict mFIM at discharge (B). The correlation between the predicted and the measured values of mFIM at discharge was compared between A and B. The correlation coefficients were .916 for A and .878 for B. Calculating mFIM at discharge from mFIM effectiveness predicted by multiple regression analysis had a higher degree of predictive accuracy of mFIM at discharge than that directly predicted. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Early hospital mortality prediction of intensive care unit patients using an ensemble learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim

    2017-12-01

    Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission

  7. Sarcopenia predicts readmission and mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Hu, Xiaoyi; Wang, Haozhong; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Qiukui; Dong, Birong

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of sarcopenia and investigate the associations between sarcopenia and long-term mortality and readmission in a population of elderly inpatients in acute care wards. We conducted a prospective observational study in the acute care wards of a teaching hospital in western China. The muscle mass was estimated according to a previously validated anthropometric equation. Handgrip strength was measured with a handheld dynamometer, and physical performance was measured via a 4 m walking test. Sarcopenia was defined according to the recommended diagnostic algorithm of the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia. The survival status and readmission information were obtained via telephone interviews at 12, 24, and 36 months during the 3 year follow-up period following the baseline investigation. Two hundred and eighty-eight participants (mean age: 81.1 ± 6.6 years) were included. Forty-nine participants (17.0%) were identified as having sarcopenia. This condition was similar in men and women (16.9% vs. 17.5%, respectively, P = 0.915). During the 3 year follow-up period, 49 men (22.7%) and 9 women (16.4%) died (P = 0.307). The mortality of sarcopenic participants was significantly increased compared with non-sarcopenic participants (40.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P sarcopenia was an independent predictor of 3 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.49; 95% confidential interval: 1.25-4.95) and readmission (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81; 95% confidential interval: 1.17-2.80). Sarcopenia, which is evaluated by a combination of anthropometric measures, gait speed, and handgrip strength, is valuable to predict hospital readmission and long-term mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Society on Sarcopenia, Cachexia and Wasting Disorders.

  8. Diagnostic performance of initial serum albumin level for predicting in-hospital mortality among aspiration pneumonia patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyosun; Jo, Sion; Lee, Jae Baek; Jin, Youngho; Jeong, Taeoh; Yoon, Jaechol; Lee, Jeong Moon; Park, Boyoung

    2018-01-01

    The predictive value of serum albumin in adult aspiration pneumonia patients remains unknown. Using data collected during a 3-year retrospective cohort of hospitalized adult patients with aspiration pneumonia, we evaluated the predictive value of serum albumin level at ED presentation for in-hospital mortality. 248 Patients were enrolled; of these, 51 cases died (20.6%). The mean serum albumin level was 3.4±0.7g/dL and serum albumin levels were significantly lower in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (3.0±0.6g/dL vs. 3.5±0.6g/dL). In the multivariable logistic regression model, albumin was associated with in-hospital mortality significantly (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.16-0.57). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for in-hospital survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.80). The Youden index was 3.2g/dL and corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were 68.6%, 66.5%, 34.7%, 89.1%, 2.05 and 0.47, respectively. High sensitivity (98.0%) was shown at albumin level of 4.0g/dL and high specificity (94.9%) was shown at level of 2.5g/dL. Initial serum albumin levels were independently associated with in-hospital mortality among adult patients hospitalized with aspiration pneumonia and demonstrated fair discriminative performance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Effects of EGCG and Chlorpyrifos on the Mortality, AChE and GSH of Adult Zebrafish: Independent and Combination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong; Zhang, Jian; Gao, Qian; Guo, Nichun

    2018-01-01

    Chlorpyrifos is a neurotoxic agent and also causes oxidative stress in the body. EGCG is a typical strong antioxidant and has been reported to be neuroprotective. Our study investigated the mortality, the activity of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) in the brain and glutathione (GSH) in the liver of the adult Zebrafish in present of Chlorpyrifos and EGCG independent and combination. The results indicated that after the addition of EGCG, the mortality of zebrafish induced by Chlorpyrifos was reduced and the activity of AChE and glutathione (GSH) inhibited by Chlorpyrifos in zebrafish was significantly increased, which demonstrated that EGCG inhibited the toxicity Chlorpyrifos to zebrafish. The inhibition was dependent on the concentration of EGCG and Chlorpyrifos, which was not shown a gradual change trend but a complex situation.

  10. Symptoms of depression and anxiety predict mortality in patients undergoing oral anticoagulation: Results from the thrombEVAL study program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michal, Matthias; Prochaska, Jürgen H; Keller, Karsten; Göbel, Sebastian; Coldewey, Meike; Ullmann, Alexander; Schulz, Andreas; Lamparter, Heidrun; Münzel, Thomas; Reiner, Iris; Beutel, Manfred E; Wild, Philipp S

    2015-01-01

    Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent in cardiovascular patients. Therefore, we examined whether the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4, measuring symptoms of depression and anxiety) predicts all-cause mortality in outpatients with long-term oral anticoagulation (OAC). The sample comprised n=1384 outpatients from a regular medical care setting receiving long-term OAC with vitamin K antagonists. At baseline, symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed with the PHQ-4 and the past medical history was taken. The outcome was all-cause mortality in the 24 month observation period. The median follow-up time was 13.3 months. N=191 patients from n=1384 died (death rate 13.8%). Each point increase in the PHQ-4 score was associated with a 10% increase in mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.05-1.16) after adjustment for age, sex, high school graduation, partnership, smoking, obesity, frailty according to the Barthel Index, Charlson Comorbidity Index and CHA2DS2-VASc score. The depression component (PHQ-2) increased mortality by 22% and anxiety (GAD-2) by 11% respectively. Neither medical history of any mental disorder, nor intake of antidepressants, anxiolytics or hypnotics predicted excess mortality. Elevated symptoms of depression and, to a lesser degree, symptoms of anxiety are independently associated with all-cause mortality in OAC outpatients. The PHQ-4 questionnaire provides valuable prognostic information. These findings emphasize the need for implementing regular screening procedures and the development and evaluation of appropriate psychosocial treatment approaches for OAC patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Subjective fear, interference by threat, and fear associations independently predict fear-related behavior in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein, A.M.; Kleinherenbrink, A.V.; Simons, C.; de Gier, E.; Klein, S.; Allart, E.; Bögels, S.M.; Becker, E.S.; Rinck, M.

    2012-01-01

    Background and objectives: Several information-processing models highlight the independent roles of controlled and automatic processes in explaining fearful behavior. Therefore, we investigated whether direct measures of controlled processes and indirect measures of automatic processes predict

  12. Von Willebrand factor indicates bacterial translocation, inflammation, and procoagulant imbalance and predicts complications independently of portal hypertension severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandorfer, M; Schwabl, P; Paternostro, R; Pomej, K; Bauer, D; Thaler, J; Ay, C; Quehenberger, P; Fritzer-Szekeres, M; Peck-Radosavljevic, M; Trauner, M; Reiberger, T; Ferlitsch, A

    2018-04-01

    Elevated plasma von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF) has been shown to indicate the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension, and thus, predicts the development of clinical events in patients with cirrhosis. To investigate the impact of bacterial translocation and inflammation on vWF, as well as the association between vWF and procoagulant imbalance. Moreover, we assessed whether vWF predicts complications of cirrhosis, independent of the severity of portal hypertension. Our study population comprised 225 patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥ 10 mm Hg without active bacterial infections or hepatocellular carcinoma. vWF correlated with markers of bacterial translocation (lipopolysaccharide-binding protein [LBP; ρ = 0.201; P = 0.021]), inflammation (interleukin 6 [IL-6; ρ = 0.426; P protein [CRP; ρ = 0.249; P protein C ratio; ρ = 0.507; P model for transplant-free mortality. Finally, the independent prognostic value of vWF/CRP groups for mortality was confirmed by competing risk analysis. Our results demonstrate that vWF is not only a marker of portal hypertension but also independently linked to bacterial translocation, inflammation and procoagulant imbalance, which might explain its HVPG-independent association with most clinical events. Prognostic groups based on vWF/CRP efficiently discriminate between patients with a poor 5-year survival and patients with a favourable prognosis. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Is digoxin an independent risk factor for long-term mortality after acute myocardial infarction?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Køber, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Gadsbøll, N

    1994-01-01

    age, LVEF, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, atrial fibrillation or flutter, ventricular fibrillation, gender, dose of furosemide at discharge and calcium antagonists and digoxin treatment as covariates, digoxin was independently associated with an increased risk of death (relative risk 1.8 (95...

  14. Uric acid predicts mortality and ischaemic stroke in subjects with diastolic dysfunction: the Tromsø Study 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norvik, Jon V; Schirmer, Henrik; Ytrehus, Kirsti; Storhaug, Hilde M; Jenssen, Trond G; Eriksen, Bjørn O; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Wilsgaard, Tom; Solbu, Marit D

    2017-05-01

    To investigate whether serum uric acid predicts adverse outcomes in persons with indices of diastolic dysfunction in a general population. We performed a prospective cohort study among 1460 women and 1480 men from 1994 to 2013. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident ischaemic stroke. We stratified the analyses by echocardiographic markers of diastolic dysfunction, and uric acid was the independent variable of interest. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated per 59 μmol/L increase in baseline uric acid. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that uric acid predicted all-cause mortality in subjects with E/A ratio 1.5 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.09, P for interaction between E/A ratio category and uric acid = 0.02). Elevated uric acid increased mortality risk in persons with E-wave deceleration time 220 ms (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.12 and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, respectively; P for interaction = 0.04). Furthermore, in participants with isovolumetric relaxation time ≤60 ms, mortality risk was higher with increasing uric acid (HR 4.98, 95% CI 2.02-12.26, P for interaction = 0.004). Finally, elevated uric acid predicted ischaemic stroke in subjects with severely enlarged left atria (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53, P for interaction = 0.047). Increased uric acid was associated with higher all-cause mortality risk in subjects with echocardiographic indices of diastolic dysfunction, and with higher ischaemic stroke risk in persons with severely enlarged left atria.

  15. Mortality Risk Prediction in Scleroderma-Related Interstitial Lung Disease: The SADL Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morisset, Julie; Vittinghoff, Eric; Elicker, Brett M; Hu, Xiaowen; Le, Stephanie; Ryu, Jay H; Jones, Kirk D; Haemel, Anna; Golden, Jeffrey A; Boin, Francesco; Ley, Brett; Wolters, Paul J; King, Talmadge E; Collard, Harold R; Lee, Joyce S

    2017-11-01

    Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with scleroderma (Scl). Risk prediction and prognostication in patients with Scl-ILD are challenging because of heterogeneity in the disease course. We aimed to develop a clinical mortality risk prediction model for Scl-ILD. Patients with Scl-ILD were identified from two ongoing longitudinal cohorts: 135 patients at the University of California, San Francisco (derivation cohort) and 90 patients at the Mayo Clinic (validation cohort). Using these two separate cohorts, a mortality risk prediction model was developed and validated by testing every potential candidate Cox model, each including three or four variables of a possible 19 clinical predictors, for time to death. Model discrimination was assessed using the C-index. Three variables were included in the final risk prediction model (SADL): ever smoking history, age, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (% predicted). This continuous model had similar performance in the derivation (C-index, 0.88) and validation (C-index, 0.84) cohorts. We created a point scoring system using the combined cohort (C-index, 0.82) and used it to identify a classification with low, moderate, and high mortality risk at 3 years. The SADL model uses simple, readily accessible clinical variables to predict all-cause mortality in Scl-ILD. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Validation of CRIB II for prediction of mortality in premature babies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastogi, Pallav Kumar; Sreenivas, V; Kumar, Nirmal

    2010-02-01

    Validation of Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) score in predicting the neonatal mortality in preterm neonates < or = 32 weeks gestational age. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care neonatal unit. 86 consecutively born preterm neonates with gestational age < or = 32 weeks. The five variables related to CRIB II were recorded within the first hour of admission for data analysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to check the accuracy of the mortality prediction. HL Goodness of fit test was used to see the discrepancy between observed and expected outcomes. A total of 86 neonates (males 59.6% mean birthweight: 1228 +/- 398 grams; mean gestational age: 28.3 +/- 2.4 weeks) were enrolled in the study, of which 17 (19.8%) left hospital against medical advice (LAMA) before reaching the study end point. Among 69 neonates completing the study, 24 (34.8%) had adverse outcome during hospital stay and 45 (65.2%) had favorable outcome. CRIB II correctly predicted adverse outcome in 90.3% (Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test P=0.6). Area under curve (AUC) for CRIB II was 0.9032. In intention to treat analysis with LAMA cases included as survivors, the mortality prediction was 87%. If these were included as having died then mortality prediction was 83.1%. The CRIB II score was found to be a good predictive instrument for mortality in preterm infants < or = 32 weeks gestation.

  17. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  18. Prediction of mortality 1 year after hospital admission.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, J

    2012-09-01

    Hospital admission, especially for the elderly, can be a seminal event as many patients die within a year. This study reports the prediction of death within a year of admission to hospital of the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM). ECG-DM is a novel technique that analyzes low-amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI).

  19. Comparing observed and predicted mortality among ICUs using different prognostic systems: why do performance assessments differ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andrew A; Higgins, Thomas L; Zimmerman, Jack E

    2015-02-01

    To compare ICU performance using standardized mortality ratios generated by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and a National Quality Forum-endorsed methodology and examine potential reasons for model-based standardized mortality ratio differences. Retrospective analysis of day 1 hospital mortality predictions at the ICU level using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum models on the same patient cohort. Forty-seven ICUs at 36 U.S. hospitals from January 2008 to May 2013. Eighty-nine thousand three hundred fifty-three consecutive unselected ICU admissions. None. We assessed standardized mortality ratios for each ICU using data for patients eligible for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum predictions in order to compare unit-level model performance, differences in ICU rankings, and how case-mix adjustment might explain standardized mortality ratio differences. Hospital mortality was 11.5%. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 0.89 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 1.07 using National Quality Forum, the latter having a widely dispersed and multimodal standardized mortality ratio distribution. Model exclusion criteria eliminated mortality predictions for 10.6% of patients for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 27.9% for National Quality Forum. The two models agreed on the significance and direction of standardized mortality ratio only 45% of the time. Four ICUs had standardized mortality ratios significantly less than 1.0 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa, but significantly greater than 1.0 using National Quality Forum. Two ICUs had standardized mortality ratios exceeding 1.75 using National Quality Forum, but nonsignificant performance using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa. Stratification by patient and institutional characteristics indicated that units caring for more

  20. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Hway Wong

    Full Text Available Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients.Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011-2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS, co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings.Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001, compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.58, p = 0.005, independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not show this pattern

  1. Prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian J. Wells

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The objective of this study was to create a tool that accurately predicts the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes according to an oral hypoglycemic agent.Materials and Methods. The model was based on a cohort of 33,067 patients with type 2 diabetes who were prescribed a single oral hypoglycemic agent at the Cleveland Clinic between 1998 and 2006. Competing risk regression models were created for coronary heart disease (CHD, heart failure, and stroke, while a Cox regression model was created for mortality. Propensity scores were used to account for possible treatment bias. A prediction tool was created and internally validated using tenfold cross-validation. The results were compared to a Framingham model and a model based on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS for CHD and stroke, respectively.Results and Discussion. Median follow-up for the mortality outcome was 769 days. The numbers of patients experiencing events were as follows: CHD (3062, heart failure (1408, stroke (1451, and mortality (3661. The prediction tools demonstrated the following concordance indices (c-statistics for the specific outcomes: CHD (0.730, heart failure (0.753, stroke (0.688, and mortality (0.719. The prediction tool was superior to the Framingham model at predicting CHD and was at least as accurate as the UKPDS model at predicting stroke.Conclusions. We created an accurate tool for predicting the risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The calculator is available online at http://rcalc.ccf.org under the heading “Type 2 Diabetes” and entitled, “Predicting 5-Year Morbidity and Mortality.” This may be a valuable tool to aid the clinician’s choice of an oral hypoglycemic, to better inform patients, and to motivate dialogue between physician and patient.

  2. Predicting of mortality in patients with intracrani al hemorrhage: A review article

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzad Rahmani

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Stroke is one of the important and common diseases, which can lead to permanent disability or even death to people. Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH is a type of stroke that is associated with high mortality despite improved diagnostic and treatment methods, as well as the mortality rate remains high. Methods: In the present review article, reputable internet databases since 2000 were analyzed. Studies that discussed the predicting mortality of ICH were included in this review. Results: For predicting the mortality rates in patients with primary ICH, physicians use several methods such as level of consciousness, bleeding volume and multiple rating systems. In this review, we introduce three scoring system of ICH in patients with ICH. Conclusion: Perhaps its cut-off point of these three score systems were different in different societies according to conditions and facilities therefore it is needed to review these scores and record their results in different societies.

  3. The relationship between subjective well-being and mortality within discordant twin pairs from two independent samples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saunders, Gretchen R B; Elkins, Irene J; Christensen, Kaare

    2018-01-01

    Prior research has shown robust associations between greater subjective well-being (SWB) and reduced mortality. Whether this observed association is causal in nature or due instead to confounding genetic or environmental factors affecting both SWB and mortality is not well understood. We used a c...... when accounting for demographic factors, physical health, and cognitive functioning. (PsycINFO Database Record...... a combined sample of 6,802 twins drawn from two cohorts: the Longitudinal Study of Middle-Aged Danish Twins (MADT; N = 2,815, baseline age between 45 and 69 years, M = 56.8, SD = 6.4) and the Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins (LSADT; N = 3,987, baseline age between 70 and 97 years, M = 76.6, SD = 4...... of SWB on reduced mortality remained significant within both MZ and DZ pairs, suggesting that the association is independent of genetic and nonshared environmental confounding factors. These findings, which generalized across both younger (MADT) and older (LSADT) cohorts of adults, remained significant...

  4. Using Wind Tunnels to Predict Bird Mortality in Wind Farms: The Case of Griffon Vultures

    OpenAIRE

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F. E.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. Methodology/Principal Findings: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topo...

  5. Blunted cyclic variation of heart rate predicts mortality risk in post-myocardial infarction, end-stage renal disease, and chronic heart failure patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayano, Junichiro; Yasuma, Fumihiko; Watanabe, Eiichi; Carney, Robert M.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Blumenthal, James A.; Arsenos, Petros; Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A.; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Ishii, Hideki; Kiyono, Ken; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu; Yoshida, Yutaka; Yuda, Emi; Kodama, Itsuo

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Aims Cyclic variation of heart rate (CVHR) associated with sleep-disordered breathing is thought to reflect cardiac autonomic responses to apnoeic/hypoxic stress. We examined whether blunted CVHR observed in ambulatory ECG could predict the mortality risk. Methods and results CVHR in night-time Holter ECG was detected by an automated algorithm, and the prognostic relationships of the frequency (FCV) and amplitude (ACV) of CVHR were examined in 717 patients after myocardial infarction (post-MI 1, 6% mortality, median follow-up 25 months). The predictive power was prospectively validated in three independent cohorts: a second group of 220 post-MI patients (post-MI 2, 25.5% mortality, follow-up 45 months); 299 patients with end-stage renal disease on chronic haemodialysis (ESRD, 28.1% mortality, follow-up 85 months); and 100 patients with chronic heart failure (CHF, 35% mortality, follow-up 38 months). Although CVHR was observed in ≥96% of the patients in all cohorts, FCV did not predict mortality in any cohort. In contrast, decreased ACV was a powerful predictor of mortality in the post-MI 1 cohort (hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1 ln [ms] decrement, 2.9 [2.2–3.7], P < 0.001). This prognostic relationship was validated in the post-MI 2 (1.8 [1.4–2.2], P < 0.001), ESRD (1.5 [1.3–1.8], P < 0.001), and CHF (1.4 [1.1–1.8], P = 0.02) cohorts. The prognostic value of ACV was independent of age, gender, diabetes, β-blocker therapy, left ventricular ejection fraction, sleep-time mean R-R interval, and FCV. Conclusion Blunted CVHR detected by decreased ACV in a night-time Holter ECG predicts increased mortality risk in post-MI, ESRD, and CHF patients. PMID:27789562

  6. Blunted cyclic variation of heart rate predicts mortality risk in post-myocardial infarction, end-stage renal disease, and chronic heart failure patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayano, Junichiro; Yasuma, Fumihiko; Watanabe, Eiichi; Carney, Robert M; Stein, Phyllis K; Blumenthal, James A; Arsenos, Petros; Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Ishii, Hideki; Kiyono, Ken; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu; Yoshida, Yutaka; Yuda, Emi; Kodama, Itsuo

    2017-08-01

    Cyclic variation of heart rate (CVHR) associated with sleep-disordered breathing is thought to reflect cardiac autonomic responses to apnoeic/hypoxic stress. We examined whether blunted CVHR observed in ambulatory ECG could predict the mortality risk. CVHR in night-time Holter ECG was detected by an automated algorithm, and the prognostic relationships of the frequency (FCV) and amplitude (ACV) of CVHR were examined in 717 patients after myocardial infarction (post-MI 1, 6% mortality, median follow-up 25 months). The predictive power was prospectively validated in three independent cohorts: a second group of 220 post-MI patients (post-MI 2, 25.5% mortality, follow-up 45 months); 299 patients with end-stage renal disease on chronic haemodialysis (ESRD, 28.1% mortality, follow-up 85 months); and 100 patients with chronic heart failure (CHF, 35% mortality, follow-up 38 months). Although CVHR was observed in ≥96% of the patients in all cohorts, FCV did not predict mortality in any cohort. In contrast, decreased ACV was a powerful predictor of mortality in the post-MI 1 cohort (hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1 ln [ms] decrement, 2.9 [2.2-3.7], P < 0.001). This prognostic relationship was validated in the post-MI 2 (1.8 [1.4-2.2], P < 0.001), ESRD (1.5 [1.3-1.8], P < 0.001), and CHF (1.4 [1.1-1.8], P = 0.02) cohorts. The prognostic value of ACV was independent of age, gender, diabetes, β-blocker therapy, left ventricular ejection fraction, sleep-time mean R-R interval, and FCV. Blunted CVHR detected by decreased ACV in a night-time Holter ECG predicts increased mortality risk in post-MI, ESRD, and CHF patients. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

  7. Liver function tests and risk prediction of incident type 2 diabetes : evaluation in two independent cohorts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbasi, Ali; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Corpeleijn, Eva; van der A, Daphne L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Gans, Rijk O. B.; Peelen, Linda M.; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Navis, Gerjan; Spijkerman, Annemieke M. W.; Beulens, Joline W. J.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Liver function tests might predict the risk of type 2 diabetes. An independent study evaluating utility of these markers compared with an existing prediction model is yet lacking. Methods and Findings: We performed a case-cohort study, including random subcohort (6.5%) from 38,379

  8. Chronic digitalis therapy in patients before heart transplantation is an independent risk factor for increased posttransplant mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rivinius R

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Rasmus Rivinius,1 Matthias Helmschrott,1 Arjang Ruhparwar,2 Ann-Kathrin Rahm,1,3 Fabrice F Darche,1 Dierk Thomas,1 Tom Bruckner,4 Philipp Ehlermann,1 Hugo A Katus,1 Andreas O Doesch1,5 1Department of Cardiology, Angiology and Pneumology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, 2Department of Cardiac Surgery, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, 3Faculty of Medicine, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, 4Institute for Medical Biometry and Informatics, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, 5Asklepios Klinik Bad Salzungen GmbH, Department of Pneumology and Oncology, Bad Salzungen, Germany Objectives: Digitalis therapy (digoxin or digitoxin in patients with heart failure is subject to an ongoing debate. Recent data suggest an increased mortality in patients receiving digitalis. This study investigated the effects of chronic digitalis therapy prior to heart transplantation (HTX on posttransplant outcomes.Patients and methods: This was a retrospective, observational, single-center study. It comprised 530 adult patients who were heart-transplanted at Heidelberg University Hospital between 1989 and 2012. Patients with digitalis prior to HTX (≥3 months were compared to those without (no or <3 months of digitalis. Patients with digitalis were further subdivided into patients receiving digoxin or digitoxin. Primary outcomes were early posttransplant atrial fibrillation and mortality.Results: A total of 347 patients (65.5% had digitalis before HTX. Of these, 180 received digoxin (51.9% and 167 received digitoxin (48.1%. Patients with digitalis before HTX had a significantly lower 30-day (P=0.0148 and 2-year (P=0.0473 survival. There was no significant difference between digoxin and digitoxin in 30-day (P=0.9466 or 2-year (P=0.0723 survival. Multivariate analysis for posttransplant 30-day mortality showed pretransplant digitalis therapy as an independent risk factor (hazard ratio =2.097, CI: 1.036–4.248, P=0.0397. Regarding atrial

  9. Cognitive impairment as assessed by a short form of MMSE was predictive of mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Rahmanfard, Naghmeh; Kreiner, Svend

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study explores the association between cognitive impairment and mortality in late senescence. A specific purpose was to validate the ability of a short form of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in predicting mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The cognition-mortality link,...... chronic diseases and mortality. A short, valid MMSE subscale, which was a powerful predictor of mortality especially among men, is attractive for research and clinical practice......., as assessed by the original MMSE and D-MMSE (a subscale associated to dementia) was estimated on a community sample of 1,111 older people using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Impaired cognitive function as assessed by both the original MMSE and D-MMSE predicted mortality in older men and women over...... long intervals. The association persisted after controlling for sociodemographic variables, Body Mass Index, mobility, and comorbidity and was unaffected by self-reported specific chronic diseases in both men and women. In addition, disease related risk of mortality was substantially reduced...

  10. Orosomucoid in urine predicts cardiovascular and over-all mortality in patients with Type II diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Merete S; Hommel, E; Magid, E

    2002-01-01

    urinary orosomucoid excretion rate at baseline (odds ratios adjusted for age, sex, duration of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, weight, medication, HbA1 c, plasma creatinine and urinary albumin excretion rate). Urinary albumin excretion rate was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality when...

  11. Osteoporosis markers on low-dose lung cancer screening chest computed tomography scans predict all-cause mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckens, C.F. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Radiology Department, Utrecht (Netherlands); University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Graaf, Y. van der [University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Verkooijen, H.M.; Mali, W.P.; Jong, P.A. de [University Medical Center Utrecht, Radiology Department, Utrecht (Netherlands); Isgum, I.; Mol, C.P. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Image Sciences Institute, Utrecht (Netherlands); Verhaar, H.J. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Geriatric Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Vliegenthart, R.; Oudkerk, M. [Medical Center Groningen, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Aalst, C.M. van; Koning, H.J. de [Erasmus MC Rotterdam, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2015-01-15

    Further survival benefits may be gained from low-dose chest computed tomography (CT) by assessing vertebral fractures and bone density. We sought to assess the association between CT-measured vertebral fractures and bone density with all-cause mortality in lung cancer screening participants. Following a case-cohort design, lung cancer screening trial participants (N = 3,673) who died (N = 196) during a median follow-up of 6 years (inter-quartile range: 5.7-6.3) were identified and added to a random sample of N = 383 from the trial. We assessed vertebral fractures using Genant and acute;s semiquantative method on sagittal reconstructions and measured bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU)) in vertebrae. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine if vertebral fractures or bone density were independently predictive of mortality. The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 35 % (95 % confidence interval 30-40 %) among survivors and 51 % (44-58 %) amongst cases. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, pack years smoked, coronary and aortic calcium volume and pulmonary emphysema, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for vertebral fracture was 2.04 (1.43-2.92). For each 10 HU decline in trabecular bone density, the adjusted HR was 1.08 (1.02-1.15). Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently associated with all-cause mortality. (orig.)

  12. Osteoporosis markers on low-dose lung cancer screening chest computed tomography scans predict all-cause mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckens, C.F.; Graaf, Y. van der; Verkooijen, H.M.; Mali, W.P.; Jong, P.A. de; Isgum, I.; Mol, C.P.; Verhaar, H.J.; Vliegenthart, R.; Oudkerk, M.; Aalst, C.M. van; Koning, H.J. de

    2015-01-01

    Further survival benefits may be gained from low-dose chest computed tomography (CT) by assessing vertebral fractures and bone density. We sought to assess the association between CT-measured vertebral fractures and bone density with all-cause mortality in lung cancer screening participants. Following a case-cohort design, lung cancer screening trial participants (N = 3,673) who died (N = 196) during a median follow-up of 6 years (inter-quartile range: 5.7-6.3) were identified and added to a random sample of N = 383 from the trial. We assessed vertebral fractures using Genant and acute;s semiquantative method on sagittal reconstructions and measured bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU)) in vertebrae. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine if vertebral fractures or bone density were independently predictive of mortality. The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 35 % (95 % confidence interval 30-40 %) among survivors and 51 % (44-58 %) amongst cases. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, pack years smoked, coronary and aortic calcium volume and pulmonary emphysema, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for vertebral fracture was 2.04 (1.43-2.92). For each 10 HU decline in trabecular bone density, the adjusted HR was 1.08 (1.02-1.15). Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently associated with all-cause mortality. (orig.)

  13. Factors Influencing the Predictive Power of Models for Predicting Mortality and/or Heart Failure Hospitalization in Patients With Heart Failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Voors, Adriaan A.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    2014-01-01

    The present paper systematically reviews and compares existing prediction models in order to establish the strongest variables, models, and model characteristics in patients with heart failure predicting outcome. To improve decision making accurately predicting mortality and heart-failure

  14. Ascites Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin Identifies Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis and Predicts Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullaro, Giuseppe; Kim, Grace; Pereira, Marcus R; Brown, Robert S; Verna, Elizabeth C

    2017-12-01

    Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a marker of both tissue injury and infection. Urine NGAL levels strongly predict acute kidney injury and mortality in patients with cirrhosis, but ascites NGAL is not well characterized. We hypothesized that ascites NGAL level is a marker of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis. Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and ascites undergoing diagnostic paracentesis were prospectively enrolled and followed until death or discharge. Patients with secondary peritonitis, prior transplantation, or active colitis were excluded. NGAL was measured in the ascites and serum. Ascites NGAL level was evaluated as a marker of SBP (defined as ascites absolute neutrophil count > 250 cells/mm 3 ) and predictor of in-patient mortality. A total of 146 patients were enrolled, and of these, 29 patients (20%) had SBP. Baseline characteristics were similar between subjects with and without SBP. Median (IQR) ascites NGAL was significantly higher in patients with SBP compared to those without SBP (221.3 [145.9-392.9] vs. 139.2 [73.9-237.2], p peritonitis in hospitalized patient with cirrhosis and an independent predictor of short-term in-hospital mortality, even controlling for SBP and MELD.

  15. Increased orosomucoid in urine is an independent predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes at 10 years of follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendstrup, Mathilde; Christiansen, Merete Skovdal; Magid, Erik

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate whether increased urinary orosomucoid excretion rate (UOER) is an independent predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and type 1 diabetes (T1DM) at 10years of follow-up.......To evaluate whether increased urinary orosomucoid excretion rate (UOER) is an independent predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and type 1 diabetes (T1DM) at 10years of follow-up....

  16. Use of APACHE II and SAPS II to predict mortality for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Byeong Hoo; Park, Sang Kyu; Jang, Dong Kyu; Jang, Kyoung Sool; Kim, Jong Tae; Han, Yong Min

    2015-01-01

    We studied the applicability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke and compared the results with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We also conducted a comparative study of accuracy for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality. Between January 2011 and December 2012, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study. APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were compared using a calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the results were compared with the GCS and NIHSS. Overall 498 patients were included in this study. The observed mortality was 26.3%, whereas APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were 35.12% and 35.34%, respectively. The mean GCS and NIHSS scores were 9.43 and 21.63, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the line of perfect prediction. The ROC curve showed a slightly better prediction of mortality for APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients. The GCS and NIHSS were inferior in predicting mortality in both patient groups. Although both the APACHE II and SAPS II systems can be used to measure performance in the neurosurgical ICU setting, the accuracy of APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients was superior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Mortality, morbidity and refractoriness prediction in status epilepticus: Comparison of STESS and EMSE scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannini, Giada; Monti, Giulia; Tondelli, Manuela; Marudi, Andrea; Valzania, Franco; Leitinger, Markus; Trinka, Eugen; Meletti, Stefano

    2017-03-01

    Status epilepticus (SE) is a neurological emergency, characterized by high short-term morbidity and mortality. We evaluated and compared two scores that have been developed to evaluate status epilepticus prognosis: STESS (Status Epilepticus Severity Score) and EMSE (Epidemiology based Mortality score in Status Epilepticus). A prospective observational study was performed on consecutive patients with SE admitted between September 2013 and August 2015. Demographics, clinical variables, STESS-3 and -4, and EMSE-64 scores were calculated for each patient at baseline. SE drug response, 30-day mortality and morbidity were the outcomes measure. 162 episodes of SE were observed: 69% had a STESS ≥3; 34% had a STESS ≥4; 51% patients had an EMSE ≥64. The 30-days mortality was 31.5%: EMSE-64 showed greater negative predictive value (NPV) (97.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) (59.8%) and accuracy in the prediction of death than STESS-3 and STESS-4 (pstatus epilepticus proved refractory to non-anaesthetic treatment. All three scales showed a high NPV (EMSE-64: 87.3%; STESS-4: 89.4%; STESS-3: 87.5%) but a low PPV (EMSE-64: 40.9%; STESS-4: 52.9%; STESS-3: 32%) for the prediction of refractoriness to first and second line drugs. This means that accuracy for the prediction of refractoriness was equally poor for all scales. EMSE-64 appears superior to STESS-3 and STESS-4 in the prediction of 30-days mortality and morbidity. All scales showed poor accuracy in the prediction of response to first and second line antiepileptic drugs. At present, there are no reliable scores capable of predicting treatment responsiveness. Copyright © 2017 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Ratio of Systolic Blood Pressure to Right Atrial Pressure, a Novel Marker to Predict Morbidity and Mortality in Acute Systolic Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omar, Hesham R; Charnigo, Richard; Guglin, Maya

    2017-04-01

    Congestion is the main contributor to heart failure (HF) morbidity and mortality. We assessed the combined role of congestion and decreased forward flow in predicting morbidity and mortality in acute systolic HF. The Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness trial data set was used to determine if the ratio of simultaneously measured systolic blood pressure (SBP)/right atrial pressure (RAP) on admission predicted HF rehospitalization and 6-month mortality. One hundred ninety-five patients (mean age 56.5 years, 75% men) who received pulmonary artery catheterization were studied. The RAP, SBP, and SBP/RAP had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.593 (p = 0.0205), 0.585 (p = 0.0359), and 0.621 (p = 0.0026), respectively, in predicting HF rehospitalization. The SBP/RAP was a superior marker of HF rehospitalization compared with RAP alone (difference in AUC 0.0289, p = 0.0385). The optimal criterion of SBP/RAP AUC 0.622, p = 0.0108, and a cut-off value of SBP/RAP <8 had a sensitivity of 61.9% and specificity 64.1% in predicting mortality. Multivariate analysis showed that an SBP/RAP <11 independently predicted rehospitalization for HF (estimated odds ratio 3.318, 95% confidence interval 1.692 to 6.506, p = 0.0005) and an SBP/RAP <8 independently predicted mortality (estimated hazard ratio 2.025, 95% confidence interval 1.069 to 3.833, p = 0.030). In conclusion, SBP/RAP ratio is a marker that identifies a spectrum of complications after hospitalization of patients with decompensated systolic HF, starting with increased incidence of HF rehospitalization at SBP/RAP <11 to increased mortality with SBP/RAP <8. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Pre-transplant reversible pulmonary hypertension predicts higher risk for mortality after cardiac transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Javed; Stankewicz, Mark A; Wu, Jack; Chomsky, Don B; Howser, Renee L; Khadim, Ghazanfar; Davis, Stacy F; Pierson, Richard N; Wilson, John R

    2005-02-01

    Pre-transplant fixed pulmonary hypertension is associated with higher post-transplant mortality. In this study, we assessed the significance of pre-transplant reversible pulmonary hypertension in patients undergoing cardiac transplantation. Overall, we studied 182 patients with baseline normal pulmonary pressures or reversible pulmonary hypertension, defined as a decrease in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) to 50 mm Hg had a higher risk of death (odds ratio [OR] 5.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46 to 19.84 as compared with PAS 4.0 WU, but patients with TPG > or =16 had a higher risk of mortality (OR 4.93, 95% CI 1.84 to 13.17). PAS pressure was an independent predictor of mortality (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06). Recipient body mass index, history of sternotomy; and donor ischemic time were the other independent predictors of mortality. Pre-transplant pulmonary hypertension, even when reversible to a PVR of < or =2.5 WU, is associated with a higher mortality post-transplant.

  20. Lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in adult sepsis and septic shock patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinto, R.; Widodo, D.; Pohan, H. T.

    2018-03-01

    Previous lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in sepsis and septic shock patient was determined by consensus from small sample size-study. We investigated the best lactate clearance cut off and its ability to predict early mortality in sepsis and septic shock patients. This cohort study was conducted in Intensive Care Unit of CiptoMangunkusumo Hospital in 2013. Patients’ lactate clearance and eight other resuscitationendpoints were recorded, and theoutcome was observed during the first 120 hours. The clearance cut off was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and its ability was investigated with Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis using other resuscitation endpoints as confounders. Total of 268 subjects was included, of whom 70 (26.11%) subjects died within the first 120 hours. The area under ROC of lactate clearance to predict early mortality was 0.78 (95% % confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.84) with best cut off was <7.5% (sensitivity and specificity 88.99% and 81.4% respectively). Compared with group achieving lactate clearance target, group not achieving lactate clearance target had to increase early mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 13.42; 95%CI 7.19-25.07). In conclusion, the best lactate clearance cut off as anearly mortality predictor in sepsis and septic shock patients is 7.5%.

  1. Adipose tissue and muscle attenuation as novel biomarkers predicting mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veld, Joyce; Vossen, Josephina A.; Torriani, Martin; Bredella, Miriam A.; De Amorim Bernstein, Karen; Halpern, Elkan F.

    2016-01-01

    To assess CT-attenuation of abdominal adipose tissue and psoas muscle as predictors of mortality in patients with sarcomas of the extremities. Our study was IRB approved and HIPAA compliant. The study group comprised 135 patients with history of extremity sarcoma (mean age: 53 ± 17 years) who underwent whole body PET/CT. Abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and psoas muscle attenuation (HU) was assessed on non-contrast, attenuation-correction CT. Clinical information including survival, tumour stage, sarcoma type, therapy and pre-existing comorbidities were recorded. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine longitudinal associations between adipose tissue and muscle attenuation and mortality. There were 47 deaths over a mean follow-up period of 20 ± 17 months. Higher SAT and lower psoas attenuation were associated with increased mortality (p = 0.03 and p = 0.005, respectively), which remained significant after adjustment for age, BMI, sex, tumor stage, therapy, and comorbidities (p = 0.002 and p = 0.02, respectively). VAT attenuation was not associated with mortality. Attenuation of SAT and psoas muscle, assessed on non-contrast CT, are predictors of mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas, independent of other established prognostic factors, suggesting that adipose tissue and muscle attenuation could serve as novel biomarkers for mortality in patients with sarcomas. (orig.)

  2. Adipose tissue and muscle attenuation as novel biomarkers predicting mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veld, Joyce; Vossen, Josephina A.; Torriani, Martin; Bredella, Miriam A. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Division of Musculoskeletal Imaging and Intervention, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); De Amorim Bernstein, Karen [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiation Oncology, Francis H Burr Proton Therapy Center, Boston, MA (United States); Halpern, Elkan F. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Institute of Technology Assessment, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-12-15

    To assess CT-attenuation of abdominal adipose tissue and psoas muscle as predictors of mortality in patients with sarcomas of the extremities. Our study was IRB approved and HIPAA compliant. The study group comprised 135 patients with history of extremity sarcoma (mean age: 53 ± 17 years) who underwent whole body PET/CT. Abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and psoas muscle attenuation (HU) was assessed on non-contrast, attenuation-correction CT. Clinical information including survival, tumour stage, sarcoma type, therapy and pre-existing comorbidities were recorded. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine longitudinal associations between adipose tissue and muscle attenuation and mortality. There were 47 deaths over a mean follow-up period of 20 ± 17 months. Higher SAT and lower psoas attenuation were associated with increased mortality (p = 0.03 and p = 0.005, respectively), which remained significant after adjustment for age, BMI, sex, tumor stage, therapy, and comorbidities (p = 0.002 and p = 0.02, respectively). VAT attenuation was not associated with mortality. Attenuation of SAT and psoas muscle, assessed on non-contrast CT, are predictors of mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas, independent of other established prognostic factors, suggesting that adipose tissue and muscle attenuation could serve as novel biomarkers for mortality in patients with sarcomas. (orig.)

  3. Bone mineral density at the hip predicts mortality in elderly men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trivedi, D P; Khaw, K T

    2001-01-01

    Low bone density as assessed by calcaneal ultrasound has been associated with mortality in elderly men and women. We examined the relationship between bone density measured at the hip and all cause and cardiovascular mortality in elderly men. Men aged 65-76 years from the general community were recruited from general practices in Cambridge between 1991 and 1995. At baseline survey, data collection included health questionnaires, measures of anthropometry and cardiovascular risk factors, as well as bone mineral density (BMD) measured using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. All men have been followed up for vital status up to December 1999. BMD was significantly inversely related to mortality from all causes and cardiovascular disease, with decreasing rates with increasing bone density quartile, and an approximate halving of risk between the bottom and top quartile (p risk (95% CI 0.66-0.91) for all-cause mortality and 0.76 relative risk (95% CI 0.62-0.93) for cardiovascular disease mortality. The association remained significant after adjusting for age, body mass index, cigarette smoking status, serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, past history of heart attack, stroke or cancer and other lifestyle factors which included use of alcohol, physical activity and general health status. Low bone density at the hip is thus a strong and independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in older men.

  4. The value of arterial blood gas parameters for prediction of mortality in survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Isabel von Auenmueller

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Sudden cardiac death is one of the leading causes of death in Europe, and early prognostication remains challenging. There is a lack of valid parameters for the prediction of survival after cardiac arrest. Aims: This study aims to investigate if arterial blood gas parameters correlate with mortality of patients after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Materials and Methods: All patients who were admitted to our hospital after resuscitation following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2013, were included in this retrospective study. The patient's survival 5 days after resuscitation defined the study end-point. For the statistical analysis, the mean, standard deviation, Student's t-test, Chi-square test, and logistic regression analyses were used (level of significance P< 0.05. Results: Arterial blood gas samples were taken from 170 patients. In particular, pH < 7.0 (odds ratio [OR]: 7.20; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.11–16.69; P< 0.001 and lactate ≥ 5.0 mmol/L (OR: 6.79; 95% CI: 2.77–16.66; P< 0.001 showed strong and independent correlations with mortality within the first 5 days after hospital admission. Conclusion: Our study results indicate that several arterial blood gas parameters correlate with mortality of patients after out-of-hospital resuscitation. The most relevant parameters are pH and lactate because they are strongly and independently associated with mortality within the first 5 days after resuscitation. Despite this correlation, none of these parameters by oneself is strong enough to allow an early prognostication. Still, these parameters can contribute as part of a multimodal approach to assessing the patients' prognosis.

  5. Variation in Annual Volume at a University Hospital Does Not Predict Mortality for Pancreatic Resections

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    Rita A. Mukhtar

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Annual volume of pancreatic resections has been shown to affect mortality rates, prompting recommendations to regionalize these procedures to high-volume hospitals. Implementation has been difficult, given the paucity of high-volume centers and the logistical hardships facing patients. Some studies have shown that low-volume hospitals achieve good outcomes as well, suggesting that other factors are involved. We sought to determine whether variations in annual volume affected patient outcomes in 511 patients who underwent pancreatic resections at the University of California, San Francisco between 1990 and 2005. We compared postoperative mortality and complication rates between low, medium, or high volume years, designated by the number of resections performed, adjusting for patient characteristics. Postoperative mortality rates did not differ between high volume years and medium/low volume years. As annual hospital volume of pancreatic resections may not predict outcome, identification of actual predictive factors may allow low-volume centers to achieve excellent outcomes.

  6. Applications of Machine learning in Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helal, N.; Sarwat, E.

    2012-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths for the female population in both developed and developing countries. In this work we have used the baseline descriptive data about the incidence (new cancer cases) of in situ breast cancer among Wisconsin females. The documented data were from the most recent 12-years period for which data are available. Wiscons in cancer incidence and mortality (deaths due to cancer) that occurred were also considered in this work. Artificial Neural network (ANN) have been successfully applied to problems in the prediction of the number of new cancer cases and mortality. Using artificial intelligence (AI) in this study, the numbers of new cancer cases and mortality that may occur are predicted.

  7. Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Johan E; Itenov, Theis Skovsgaard; Bestle, Morten Heiberg

    2017-01-01

    the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: We identified 19 articles studying 7 different models' ability to predict mortality in VAP patients. The models were Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II (9 studies, n = 1398); Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (4 studies, n...... = 303); "Immunodeficiency, Blood pressure, Multilobular infiltrates on chest radiograph, Platelets and hospitalization 10 days before onset of VAP" (3 studies, n = 406); "VAP Predisposition, Insult Response and Organ dysfunction" (2 studies, n = 589); Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (7 studies, n......: The PubMed and EMBASE were searched in February 2016. We included studies in English that evaluated models' ability to predict the risk of mortality in patients with VAP. The reported mortality with the longest follow-up was used in the meta-analysis. Prognostic accuracy was measured with the area under...

  8. IgA antibodies against β2 glycoprotein I in hemodialysis patients are an independent risk factor for mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Antonio; García, Florencio; Serrano, Manuel; Ramírez, Elisa; Alfaro, F Javier; Lora, David; de la Cámara, Agustín Gómez; Paz-Artal, Estela; Praga, Manuel; Morales, Jose M

    2012-06-01

    Cardiovascular complications are the most important cause of death in patients on dialysis with end-stage renal disease. Antibodies reacting with β-glycoprotein I seem to play a pathogenic role in antiphospholipid syndrome and stroke and are involved in the origin of atherosclerosis. Here we evaluated the presence of anticardiolipin and anti-β-glycoprotein I antibodies together with other vascular risk factors and their relationship with mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort of 124 hemodialysis patients prospectively followed for 2 years. Of these, 41 patients were significantly positive for IgA anti-β-glycoprotein I, and the remaining had normal values. At 24 months, overall and cardiovascular mortality and thrombotic events were all significantly higher in patients with high anti-β-glycoprotein I antibodies. Multivariate analysis using Cox regression modeling found that age, hypoalbuminemia, use of dialysis catheters, and IgA β-glycoprotein I antibodies were independent risk factors for death. Thus, IgA antibodies to β-glycoprotein I are detrimental to the clinical outcome of hemodialysis patients.

  9. Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Predicts Mortality Risk in Older Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabbe, K.S.; Mortensen, E.L.; Avlund, K.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To test the hypothesis that low circulating brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a secretory member of the neurotrophin family that has a protective role in neurodegeneration and stress responses and a regulatory role in metabolism, predicts risk of all-cause mortality in 85-year...

  10. Predicting mortality and length-of-stay for neonatal admissions to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To predict neonatal mortality and length of stay (LOS) from readily available perinatal data for neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions in Southern African private hospitals. Methods: Retrospective observational study using perinatal data from a large multicentre sample. Fifteen participating NICU centres ...

  11. The evaluation of CRIB II scoring system in predicting mortality in preterm newborns

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    Homa Babaei

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: The survival rate of premature newborns depends on gestational age, birth weight and condition when they are hospitalized. Different scoring systems to predict mortality in newborns has been designed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate value of CRIB II scoring system in predicting mortality rate of infants with birth weights less than 1500 grams. Material and Methods: In this 8 month cross - sectional study (September 2010 to April 2010 which was conducted in the NICU of Imam Reza hospital in Kermanshah, preterm newborns with birth weight less than 1500 gr and gestational age less than 32 weeks who were admitted within 12 hours after birth in the NICU ,were evaluated based on CRIB II scoring system . Results: 50 neonates out of 1360 (36.8% survived and 86 neonates(63.2% died. Average CRIB II score in newborn survived was 5.8±2.9 and in infants died was 9.8±2.9 (p <0.0001. Based on the AUC, the CRIB II score could predict about 0.85 (CI: 0.77-0.92 of mortality. Also based on the ROC curve cut-off point for scoring CRIB II, was 6.5. Conclusion: Our study showed that CRIB II has a high value( about %85 in predicting mortality in newborns with birth weights less than 1500 grams.

  12. Update of predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O. Segura; A. Burdorf (Alex); C.W.N. Looman (Caspar)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractAIMS: To predict the expected number of pleural mesothelioma deaths in the Netherlands from 2000 to 2028 and to study the effect of main uncertainties in the modelling technique. METHODS: Through an age-period-cohort modelling technique, age specific mortality rates

  13. Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

  14. Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

  15. Appetite predicts mortality in free-living older adults in association with dietary diversity. A NAHSIT cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yi-Chen; Wahlqvist, Mark L; Lee, Meei-Shyuan

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to assess the predictive ability of appetite for mortality among representative free-living Taiwanese older adults. A total of 1856 participants aged 65 years or over from the Elderly Nutrition and Health Survey during 1999-2000 completed an appetite question in a larger questionnaire. Personal information was obtained by face-to-face interview at baseline, together with a 24-hour dietary recall and simplified food frequency questionnaire which provided a dietary diversity score and food intake frequency. Survivorship was ascertained from the Death Registry until December 31, 2008. Participants with a poor appetite had lower dietary diversity scores (DDS) and intake frequencies of meat, fish and sea food, egg, vegetable and fruit intake, along with lower energy, protein, vitamin B-1, niacin, iron and phosphate intakes. Those who had fair and poor appetites had a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to those with good appetite, with hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval, CI) of 1.28 (1.03-1.58) and 2.27 (1.71-3.02), respectively. After adjustment for confounders, the HRs (95% CI) were 1.05 (0.83-1.33) and 1.50 (1.03-2.18), respectively. With further adjustment for DDS or general health these HRs became non-significant. The joint HR (95% CI) for "DDS ≤ 4 and poor appetite" was 1.77 (1.04-3.00) compared to "DDS > 4 and good appetite" as referent. Poor appetite is associated with lower food and nutrient intakes and an independent risk for mortality in older Taiwanese. In conclusion, appetite is separate, mediated by general health and modulated by dietary quality in its predictive capacity for mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Delirium symptoms during hospitalization predict long-term mortality in patients with severe pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliberti, Stefano; Bellelli, Giuseppe; Belotti, Mauro; Morandi, Alessandro; Messinesi, Grazia; Annoni, Giorgio; Pesci, Alberto

    2015-08-01

    Delirium is common in critically ill patients and impact in-hospital mortality in patients with pneumonia. The aim of the study was to evaluate the prevalence of delirium symptoms during hospitalization in patients with severe pneumonia and their impact on one-year mortality. This was an observational, retrospective, cohort study of consecutive patients admitted to the respiratory high dependency unit of the San Gerardo University Hospital, Monza, Italy, between January 2009 and December 2012 with a diagnosis of severe pneumonia. A search through the charts looking for ten key words associated with delirium (confusion, disorientation, altered mental status, delirium, agitation, inappropriate behavior, mental status change, inattention, hallucination, lethargy) was performed by a multidisciplinary team. The primary endpoint was mortality at one-year follow-up. Secondary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. A total of 172 patients were enrolled (78 % males; median age 75 years). At least one delirium symptom was detected in 53 patients (31 %) during hospitalization. The prevalence of delirium symptoms was higher among those who died during hospitalization vs. those who survived (44 vs. 27 %, p = 0.049, respectively). Seventy-one patients (46 %) died during the one-year follow-up. The prevalence of at least one delirium symptom was higher among those who died than those who survived during the one-year follow-up (39 vs. 21 %, p = 0.014, respectively). At the multivariable logistic regression analysis, after adjustment for age, comorbidities and severe sepsis, the presence of at least one delirium symptom during hospitalization was an independent predictor of one-year mortality (OR 2.35; 95 % CI 1.13-4.90; p = 0.023). Delirium symptoms are independent predictors of one-year mortality in hospitalized patients with severe pneumonia. Further studies should confirm our results using prospective methods of collecting data.

  17. Predictive factors of neurological complications and one-month mortality after liver transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine eFu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Neurological complications are common after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT. We aimed to characterize the risk factors associated with neurological complications and mortality among patients who underwent OLT in the post-model for end-stage liver disease (MELD era.Methods: In a retrospective review, we evaluated 227 consecutive patients at the Keck Hospital of the University of Southern California before and after OLT to define the type and frequency of and risk factors for neurological complications and mortality.Results: Neurological complications were common (n=98, with encephalopathy being most frequent (56.8%, followed by tremor (26.5%, hallucinations (11.2%, and seizure (8.2%. Factors associated with neurological complications after OLT included preoperative dialysis, hepatorenal syndrome, renal insufficiency, intra-operative dialysis, preoperative encephalopathy, preoperative mechanical ventilation, and infection. Preoperative infection was an independent predictor of neurological complications (OR 2.83, 1.47 – 5.44. One-month mortality was 8.8% and was independently associated with urgent re-transplant, preoperative intubation, intraoperative arrhythmia, and intraoperative use of multiple pressors.Conclusion: Neurological complications are common in patients undergoing OLT in the post-MELD era, with encephalopathy being most frequent. An improved understanding of the risk factors related to both neurological complications and one-month mortality post-transplantation can better guide perioperative care and help improve outcomes among OLT patients.

  18. Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohk, Christina; Rau, Roland

    To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia-three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political reforms. The results of our retrospective mortality forecasts from 1991 to 2009 suggest that our model can capture major changes in long-term mortality trends, and that the forecast errors it generates are usually smaller than those of other well-accepted models, like the Lee-Carter model and its coherent variant. This is because our approach is capable of modeling (1) dynamic shifts in survival improvements from younger to older ages over time, as well as (2) substantial changes in long-term trends by optionally complementing the extrapolated mortality trends in a country of interest with those of selected reference countries. However, the forecasting performance of our model is limited (like that of every model): e.g., if mortality becomes extremely volatile-as was the case in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union-generating a precise forecast will depend more on luck than on methodology and expert judgment. In general, we conclude that, on their own, recent economic changes appear to have minor effects on life expectancy in industrialized countries, but that the effects of these changes are greater if they occur in conjunction with other major social and political changes.

  19. Prediction of Mortality and Causes of Death in a Burn Centre: A Retrospective Clinical Study

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    Celalettin Sever

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Mortality rates are important outcome parameters after burn. The causes of mortality have been reported differently in the literature. The aim of the study was to identify parameters that are predictive of major morbidity factors and risk of mortality in patients with burn injury. Material and Methods: This study was performed among the patients who admitted to the burn center period between December 2001 and June 2010. Within this period, demographic data, treatment, and outcomes of treatment were reviewed and analyzed. Results: The burn patients were analysed retrospectively during 9-years period between December 2001 and January 2010. Burns caused by scalding were the most frequent (69.7 % followed by flames (24.4 %. 4.30 % of the patients died because of multisystem organ failure, septicaemia and cardiac respiratory failure. Conclusions:The most common cause of mortality was multiorgan failure according to our study. The mortality rates and causes of burn centers should be investigated retrospectively between different burn centres to determine the most common cause of mortality in burn centers. 

  20. Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

    2015-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

  1. Predicting the probability of mortality of gastric cancer patients using decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadzadeh, F; Noorkojuri, H; Pourhoseingholi, M A; Saadat, S; Baghestani, A R

    2015-06-01

    Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer worldwide. This reason motivated us to investigate and introduce gastric cancer risk factors utilizing statistical methods. The aim of this study was to identify the most important factors influencing the mortality of patients who suffer from gastric cancer disease and to introduce a classification approach according to decision tree model for predicting the probability of mortality from this disease. Data on 216 patients with gastric cancer, who were registered in Taleghani hospital in Tehran,Iran, were analyzed. At first, patients were divided into two groups: the dead and alive. Then, to fit decision tree model to our data, we randomly selected 20% of dataset to the test sample and remaining dataset considered as the training sample. Finally, the validity of the model examined with sensitivity, specificity, diagnosis accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The CART version 6.0 and SPSS version 19.0 softwares were used for the analysis of the data. Diabetes, ethnicity, tobacco, tumor size, surgery, pathologic stage, age at diagnosis, exposure to chemical weapons and alcohol consumption were determined as effective factors on mortality of gastric cancer. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of decision tree were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.74 respectively. The indices of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy represented that the decision tree model has acceptable accuracy to prediction the probability of mortality in gastric cancer patients. So a simple decision tree consisted of factors affecting on mortality of gastric cancer may help clinicians as a reliable and practical tool to predict the probability of mortality in these patients.

  2. Limitations of Cox Proportional Hazards Analysis in Mortality Prediction of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babińska Magdalena

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the possibility of incorrect assessment of mortality risk factors in a group of patients affected by acute coronary syndrome, due to the lack of hazard proportionality in the Cox regression model. One hundred and fifty consecutive patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and no age limit were enrolled. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed. The proportional hazard assumptions were verified using Schoenfeld residuals, χ2 test and rank correlation coefficient t between residuals and time. In the total group of 150 patients, 33 (22.0% deaths from any cause were registered in the follow-up time period of 64 months. The non-survivors were significantly older and had increased prevalence of diabetes and erythrocyturia, longer history of coronary artery disease, higher concentrations of serum creatinine, cystatin C, uric acid, glucose, C-reactive protein (CRP, homocysteine and B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, and lower concentrations of serum sodium. No significant differences in echocardiography parameters were observed between groups. The following factors were risk of death factors and fulfilled the proportional hazard assumption in the univariable model: smoking, occurrence of diabetes and anaemia, duration of coronary artery disease, and abnormal serum concentrations of uric acid, sodium, homocysteine, cystatin C and NT-proBNP, while in the multivariable model, the risk of death factors were: smoking and elevated concentrations of homocysteine and NT-proBNP. The study has demonstrated that violation of the proportional hazard assumption in the Cox regression model may lead to creating a false model that does not include only time-independent predictive factors.

  3. Identification of enhanced cytokine generation following sepsis. Dream of magic bullet for mortality prediction and therapeutic evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Hamishehkar

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available "n  "nBackground and the purpose of the study: sepsis is one of the most widespread and lethal disease in Intensive Care Units (ICU. Based on pathophisyology of sepsis, it seems that routine laboratory tests combined with analysis of pro-inflammatory cytokines plasma levels, help clinicians to have more information about disease progress and its correct management. "nMethods:This was a prospective observational study to determine the predictive role of Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNF-α, Interleukin (IL-1β and IL-6 as three main pro-inflammatory cytokines and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA as two scoring systems in mortality of critically ill patients with severe sepsis. Fifty and five patients with criteria of severe sepsis were included in this study. An exclusion criterion was post Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR status. Cytokines (TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6 were assayed in the first, third and seventh days in blood of patients. Results and major conclusion:Among three measured cytokines, sequential levels of TNF-α and IL-6 showed significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors. IL-6 had a good correlation with outcome and scoring systems during the period of this study. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curve indicated that APACHE II (0.858, 0.848, 0.861 and IL-6 (0.797, 0.799, 0.899 had discriminative power in prediction of mortality during sequental measured days. Multiple logestic regression analysis identified that evaluation of APACHE II and TNF-α in the first day and APACHE II and IL-6 in the third and seventh days of severe septic patients are independent outcome predictors. Results of this study suggest that IL-6 and APACHE II are useful cytokine and scoring systems respectively in prediction of mortality and clinical evaluation of severe septic patients.

  4. Prognostic factors for mortality due to pneumonia among adults from different age groups in Singapore and mortality predictions based on PSI and CURB-65.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zoe Xz; Yong, Yang; Tan, Wan C; Shen, Liang; Ng, Han Seong; Fong, Kok Yong

    2017-08-14

    Pneumonia is associated with considerable mortality. However, the information on age-specific prognostic factors for death from pneumonia is limited. Patients hospitalised with a diagnosis of pneumonia through the emergency department were stratified into three age groups: 18-64 years; 65-84 years; and ≥ 85 years. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to evaluate prognostic factors for mortality and the performance of pneumonia severity scoring tools for mortality prediction. There were 1,902 patients (18-64 years: 614 [32.3%]; 65-84 years: 944 [49.6%]; ≥ 85 years: 344 [18.1%]) enrolled. Mortality rates increased with age (18-64 years: 7.3%; 65-84 years: 16.1%; ≥ 85 years: 29.7%; p aged 18-64 years. Male gender, malignancy, congestive heart failure and eight other parameters reflecting acute disease severity were associated with mortality among patients aged 65-84 years. For patients aged ≥ 85 years, altered mental status, tachycardia, blood urea nitrogen, hypoxaemia, arterial pH and pleural effusion were significantly predictive of mortality. Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) was more sensitive than CURB-65 (Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate ≥ 30 per minute, low Blood pressure, age 65 years or older) for mortality prediction across all age groups. The predictive effect of prognostic factors for mortality varied among patients with pneumonia from the different age groups. PSI performed significantly better than CURB-65 for mortality prediction, but its discriminative power decreased with advancing age.

  5. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Sinnott Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

  6. [Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Haixia; Tang, Yangjiang; Wang, Lan; Shi, Chaoli; Feng, Yulin; Yi, Qun

    2016-01-26

    To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), Prisk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower

  7. A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

  8. Depression as an independent prognostic factor for all-cause mortality after a hospital admission for worsening heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokoreli, I; de Vries, J J G; Riistama, J M; Pauws, S C; Steyerberg, E W; Tesanovic, A; Geleijnse, G; Goode, K M; Crundall-Goode, A; Kazmi, S; Cleland, J G; Clark, A L

    2016-10-01

    Depression is associated with increased mortality amongst patients with chronic heart failure (HF). Whether depression is an independent predictor of outcome in patients admitted for worsening of HF is unclear. OPERA-HF is an observational study enrolling patients hospitalized with worsening HF. Depression was assessed by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D) questionnaire. Comorbidity was assessed by the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the association between depression and all-cause mortality. Of 242 patients who completed the HADS-D questionnaire, 153, 54 and 35 patients had no (score 0-7), mild (score 8-10) or moderate-to-severe (score 11-21) depression, respectively. During follow-up, 35 patients died, with a median time follow-up of 360days amongst survivors (interquartile range, IQR 217-574days). In univariable analysis, moderate-to-severe depression was associated with an increased risk of death (HR: 4.9; 95% CI: 2.3 to 10.2; Pbeta-blocker and diuretics (HR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.3 to 7.0; P<0.05). Depression is strongly associated with an adverse outcome in the year following discharge after an admission to hospital for worsening HF. The association is only partly explained by the severity of HF or comorbidity. Further research is required to demonstrate whether recognition and treatment of depression improves patient outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen Miao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF, a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model. Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis.

  10. Number of rib fractures thresholds independently predict worse outcomes in older patients with blunt trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulzhenko, Nikita O; Zens, Tiffany J; Beems, Megan V; Jung, Hee Soo; O'Rourke, Ann P; Liepert, Amy E; Scarborough, John E; Agarwal, Suresh K

    2017-04-01

    There have been conflicting reports regarding whether the number of rib fractures sustained in blunt trauma is associated independently with worse patient outcomes. We sought to investigate this risk-adjusted relationship among the lesser-studied population of older adults. A retrospective review of the National Trauma Data Bank was performed for patients with blunt trauma who were ≥65 years old and had rib fractures between 2009 and 2012 (N = 67,695). Control data were collected for age, sex, injury severity score, injury mechanism, 24 comorbidities, and number of rib fractures. Outcome data included hospital mortality, hospital and intensive care unit durations of stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, and the occurrence of pneumonia. Multiple logistic and linear regression analyses were performed. Sustaining ≥5 rib fractures was associated with increased intensive care unit admission (odds ratio: 1.14, P rib fractures was associated with an increased incidence of pneumonia (odds ratio: 1.32, P rib fractures was associated with increased mortality (odds ratio: 1.51, P rib fractures is a significant predictor of worse outcomes independent of patient characteristics, comorbidities, and trauma burden. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Oxidative Stress Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-Infected Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mar Masiá

    Full Text Available We aimed to assess whether oxidative stress is a predictor of mortality in HIV-infected patients.We conducted a nested case-control study in CoRIS, a contemporary, multicentre cohort of HIV-infected patients, antiretroviral-naïve at entry, launched in 2004. Cases were patients who died with available stored plasma samples collected. Two age and sex-matched controls for each case were selected. We measured F2-isoprostanes (F2-IsoPs and malondialdehyde (MDA plasma levels in the first blood sample obtained after cohort engagement.54 cases and 93 controls were included. Median F2-IsoPs and MDA levels were significantly higher in cases than in controls. When adjustment was performed for age, HIV-transmission category, CD4 cell count and HIV viral load at cohort entry, and subclinical inflammation measured with highly-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP, the association of F2-IsoPs with mortality remained significant (adjusted OR per 1 log10 increase, 2.34 [1.23-4.47], P = 0.009. The association of MDA with mortality was attenuated after adjustment: adjusted OR (95% CI per 1 log10 increase, 2.05 [0.91-4.59], P = 0.080. Median hsCRP was also higher in cases, and it also proved to be an independent predictor of mortality in the adjusted analysis: OR (95% CI per 1 log10 increase, 1.39 (1.01-1.91, P = 0.043; and OR (95% CI per 1 log10 increase, 1.46 (1.07-1.99, P = 0.014, respectively, when adjustment included F2-IsoPs and MDA.Oxidative stress is a predictor of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected patients. For plasma F2-IsoPs, this association is independent of HIV-related factors and subclinical inflammation.

  12. Serum YKL-40 independently predicts outcome after transcatheter arterial chemoembolization of hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Bao Zhu

    Full Text Available Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE is the most widely used treatment option for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. Elevated serum YKL-40 level has been shown to predict poor prognosis in HCC patients undergoing resection. This study was designed to validate the prognostic significance of serum YKL-40 in patients with HCC undergoing TACE treatment.Serum YKL-40 level was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Overall survival (OS was evaluated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Multivariate study with Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate independent prognostic variables of OS.The median pretreatment serum YKL-40 in HCC patients with was significantly higher than that in healthy controls (P<0.001. The YKL-40 could predict survival precisely either in a dichotomized or continuous fashion (P<0.001 and P = 0.001, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that serum YKL-40 was an independent prognostic factor for OS in HCC patients (P = 0.001. In further stratified analyses, YKL-40 could discriminate the outcomes of patients with low and high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP level (P = 0.006 and 0.016, respectively. Furthermore, the combination of serum YKL-40 and AFP had more capacity to predict patients' outcomes.Serum YKL-40 was demonstrated to be an independent prognostic biomarker in HCC patients treated with TACE. Our results need confirmation in an independent study.

  13. Interleukin-6 and procalcitonin as biomarkers in mortality prediction of hospitalized patients with community acquired pneumonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilija Andrijevic

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Community acquired pneumonia (CAP may present as life-threatening infection with uncertain progression and outcome of treatment. Primary aim of the trial was determination of the cut-off value of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6 and procalcitonin (PCT above which, 30-day mortality in hospitalized patients with CAP, could be predicted with high sensitivity and specificity. We investigated correlation between serum levels of IL-6 and PCT at admission and available scoring systems of CAP (pneumonia severity index-PSI, modified early warning score-MEWS and (Confusion, Urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, Blood pressure, ≥65 years of age-CURB65. Methods: This was prospective, non-randomized trial which included 101 patients with diagnosed CAP. PSI, MEWS and CURB65 were assessed on first day of hospitalization. IL-6 and PCT were also sampled on the first day of hospitalization. Results: Based on ROC curve analysis (AUC ± SE = 0.934 ± 0.035; 95%CI(0.864-1.0; P = 0.000 hospitalized CAP patients with elevated IL-6 level have 93.4% higher risk level for lethal outcome. Cut-off value of 20.2 pg/ml IL-6 shows sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 87% in mortality prediction. ROC curve analysis confirmed significant role of procalcitonin as a mortality predictor in CAP patients (AUC ± SE = 0.667 ± 0.062; 95%CI(0.546-0.789; P = 0.012. Patients with elevated PCT level have 66.7% higher risk level for lethal outcome. As a predictor of mortality at the cut-off value of 2.56 ng/ml PCT shows sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 61.8%. Conclusions: Both IL-6 and PCI are significant for prediction of 30-day mortality in hospitalized patients with CAP. Serum levels of IL6 correlate with major CAP scoring systems.

  14. C-reactive protein level predicts mortality in COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Leuzzi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The prognostic role of baseline C-reactive protein (CRP in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is controversial. In order to clarify this issue, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the predictive effect of baseline CRP level in COPD patients. 15 eligible articles focusing on late mortality in COPD were included in our study. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis, and assessed heterogeneity and publication bias. We pooled hazard ratio (HR estimates and their 95% confidence intervals on mortality for the comparison between the study-specific highest category of CRP level versus the lowest category. In overall analysis, elevated baseline CRP levels were significantly associated with higher mortality (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.32–1.77, I2=68.7%, p<0.001. Similar results were observed across subgroups. However, higher mortality risk was reported in studies using a cut-off value of 3 mg·L−1 (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.12–2.30 and in those enrolling an Asiatic population (HR 3.51, 95% CI 1.69–7.31. Our analysis indicates that baseline high CRP level is significantly associated with higher late mortality in patients with COPD. Further prospective controlled studies are needed to confirm these data.

  15. Value of geriatric frailty and nutritional status assessment in predicting postoperative mortality in gastric cancer surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegels, Juul J W; de Maat, M F G; Hulsewé, K W E; Hoofwijk, A G M; Stoot, J H M B

    2014-03-01

    This study seeks to evaluate assessment of geriatric frailty and nutritional status in predicting postoperative mortality in gastric cancer surgery. Preoperatively, patients operated for gastric adenocarcinoma underwent assessment of Groningen Frailty Indicator (GFI) and Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire (SNAQ). We studied retrospectively whether these scores were associated with in-hospital mortality. From 2005 to September 2012 180 patients underwent surgery with an overall mortality of 8.3%. Patients with a GFI ≥ 3 (n = 30, 24%) had a mortality rate of 23.3% versus 5.2% in the lower GFI group (OR 4.0, 95%CI 1.1-14.1, P = 0.03). For patients who underwent surgery with curative intent (n = 125), this was 27.3% for patients with GFI ≥ 3 (n = 22, 18%) versus 5.7% with GFI gastric cancer surgical mortality and geriatric frailty as well as nutritional status using a simple questionnaire. This may have implications in preoperative decision making in selecting patients who optimally benefit from surgery.

  16. Predictive factors of mortality within 30 days in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yoo Jin; Min, Bo Ram; Kim, Eun Soo; Park, Kyung Sik; Cho, Kwang Bum; Jang, Byoung Kuk; Chung, Woo Jin; Hwang, Jae Seok; Jeon, Seong Woo

    2016-01-01

    Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is a common medical emergency that can be life threatening. This study evaluated predictive factors of 30-day mortality in patients with this condition. A prospective observational study was conducted at a single hospital between April 2010 and November 2012, and 336 patients with symptoms and signs of gastrointestinal bleeding were consecutively enrolled. Clinical characteristics and endoscopic findings were reviewed to identify potential factors associated with 30-day mortality. Overall, 184 patients were included in the study (men, 79.3%; mean age, 59.81 years), and 16 patients died within 30 days (8.7%). Multivariate analyses revealed that comorbidity of diabetes mellitus (DM) or metastatic malignancy, age ≥ 65 years, and hypotension (systolic pressure < 90 mmHg) during hospitalization were significant predictive factors of 30-day mortality. Comorbidity of DM or metastatic malignancy, age ≥ 65 years, and hemodynamic instability during hospitalization were predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with NVUGIB. These results will help guide the management of patients with this condition.

  17. Measure of functional independence dominates discharge outcome prediction after inpatient rehabilitation for stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Allen W; Therneau, Terry M; Schultz, Billie A; Niewczyk, Paulette M; Granger, Carl V

    2015-04-01

    Identifying clinical data acquired at inpatient rehabilitation admission for stroke that accurately predict key outcomes at discharge could inform the development of customized plans of care to achieve favorable outcomes. The purpose of this analysis was to use a large comprehensive national data set to consider a wide range of clinical elements known at admission to identify those that predict key outcomes at rehabilitation discharge. Sample data were obtained from the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation data set with the diagnosis of stroke for the years 2005 through 2007. This data set includes demographic, administrative, and medical variables collected at admission and discharge and uses the FIM (functional independence measure) instrument to assess functional independence. Primary outcomes of interest were functional independence measure gain, length of stay, and discharge to home. The sample included 148,367 people (75% white; mean age, 70.6±13.1 years; 97% with ischemic stroke) admitted to inpatient rehabilitation a mean of 8.2±12 days after symptom onset. The total functional independence measure score, the functional independence measure motor subscore, and the case-mix group were equally the strongest predictors for any of the primary outcomes. The most clinically relevant 3-variable model used the functional independence measure motor subscore, age, and walking distance at admission (r(2)=0.107). No important additional effect for any other variable was detected when added to this model. This analysis shows that a measure of functional independence in motor performance and age at rehabilitation hospital admission for stroke are predominant predictors of outcome at discharge in a uniquely large US national data set. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. Global Longitudinal Strain to Predict Mortality in Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jin Joo; Park, Jun-Bean; Park, Jae-Hyeong; Cho, Goo-Yeong

    2018-05-08

    Heart failure (HF) is currently classified according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF); however, the prognostic value of LVEF is controversial. Myocardial strain is a prognostic factor independently of LVEF. The authors sought to evaluate the prognostic value of global longitudinal strain (GLS) in patients with HF. GLS was measured in 4,172 consecutive patients with acute HF. Patients were categorized as either HF with reduced (LVEF 12.6%), moderately (8.1% < GLS <12.5%), or severely (GLS ≤8.0%) reduced strain. The primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality. Mean GLS was 10.8%, and mean LVEF was 40%. Overall, 1,740 (40.4%) patients had died at 5 years. Patients with reduced ejection fraction had slightly higher mortality than those with midrange or preserved ejection fraction (41%, 38%, and 39%, respectively; log-rank p = 0.031), whereas patients with reduced strain had significantly higher mortality (severely reduced GLS, 49%; moderately reduced GLS, 38%; mildly reduced GLS, 34%; log-rank p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, each 1% increase in GLS was associated with a 5% decreased risk for mortality (p < 0.001). Patients with moderate (hazard ratio: 1.31; 95% confidence interval: 1.13 to 1.53) and severe GLS reductions (hazard ratio: 1.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.36 to 1.91) had higher mortality, but LVEF was not associated with mortality. In patients with acute HF, GLS has greater prognostic value than LVEF. Therefore, the authors suggest that GLS should be considered as the standard measurement in all patients with HF. This new concept needs validation in further studies. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

  20. Does inhalation injury predict mortality in burns patients or require redefinition?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngmin Kim

    Full Text Available Inhalation injury is known to be an important factor in predicting mortality in burns patients. However, the diagnosis is complicated by the heterogeneous presentation and inability to determine the severity of inhalation injury. The purpose of this study was to identify clinical features of inhalation injury that affect mortality and the values that could predict the outcome more precisely in burns patients with inhalation injury. This retrospective observational study included 676 burns patients who were over 18 years of age and hospitalized in the Burns Intensive Care Unit between January 2012 and December 2015. We analyzed variables that are already known to be prognostic factors (age, percentage of total body surface area (%TBSA burned, and inhalation injury and factors associated with inhalation injury (carboxyhemoglobin and PaO2/FiO2 [PF] ratio by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Age group (odds ratio [OR] 1.069, p<0.001, %TBSA burned (OR 1.100, p<0.001, and mechanical ventilation (OR 3.774, p<0.001 were identified to be significant predictive factors. The findings for presence of inhalation injury, PF ratio, and carboxyhemoglobin were not statistically significant in multivariate logistic regression. Being in the upper inhalation group, the lower inhalation group, and having a PF ratio <100 were identified to be significant predictors only in univariate logistic regression analysis (OR 4.438, p<0.001; OR 2.379, p<0.001; and OR 2.765, p<0.001, respectively. History and physical findings are not appropriate for diagnosis of inhalation injury and do not predict mortality. Mechanical ventilation should be recognized as a risk factor for mortality in burns patients with inhalation injury.

  1. High and increasing Oxa-51 DNA load predict mortality in Acinetobacter baumannii bacteremia: implication for pathogenesis and evaluation of therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Chung Chuang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: While quantification of viral loads has been successfully employed in clinical medicine and has provided valuable insights and useful markers for several viral diseases, the potential of measuring bacterial DNA load to predict outcome or monitor therapeutic responses remains largely unexplored. We tested this possibility by investigating bacterial loads in Acinetobacter baumannii bacteremia, a rapidly increasing nosocomial infection characterized by high mortality, drug resistance, multiple and complicated risk factors, all of which urged the need of good markers to evaluate therapeutics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We established a quantitative real-time PCR assay based on an A. baumannii-specific gene, Oxa-51, and conducted a prospective study to examine A. baumannii loads in 318 sequential blood samples from 51 adults patients (17 survivors, 34 nonsurvivors with culture-proven A. baumannii bacteremia in the intensive care units. Oxa-51 DNA loads were significantly higher in the nonsurvivors than survivors on day 1, 2 and 3 (P=0.03, 0.001 and 0.006, respectively. Compared with survivors, nonsurvivors had higher maximum Oxa-51 DNA load and a trend of increase from day 0 to day 3 (P<0.001, which together with Pitt bacteremia score were independent predictors for mortality by multivariate analysis (P=0.014 and 0.016, for maximum Oxa-51 DNA and change of Oxa-51 DNA, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed significantly different survival curves in patients with different maximum Oxa-51 DNA and change of Oxa-51 DNA from day 0 to day 3. CONCLUSIONS: High Oxa-51 DNA load and its initial increase could predict mortality. Moreover, monitoring Oxa-51 DNA load in blood may provide direct parameters for evaluating new regimens against A. baumannii in future clinical studies.

  2. Temperature multiscale entropy analysis: a promising marker for early prediction of mortality in septic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papaioannou, V E; Pneumatikos, I A; Chouvarda, I G; Maglaveras, N K; Baltopoulos, G I

    2013-01-01

    A few studies estimating temperature complexity have found decreased Shannon entropy, during severe stress. In this study, we measured both Shannon and Tsallis entropy of temperature signals in a cohort of critically ill patients and compared these measures with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Skin temperature was recorded in 21 mechanically ventilated patients, who developed sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. Shannon and Tsallis entropies were calculated in wavelet-based decompositions of the temperature signal. Statistically significant differences of entropy features were tested between survivors and non-survivors and classification models were built, for predicting final outcome. Significantly reduced Tsallis and Shannon entropies were found in non-survivors (seven patients, 33%) as compared to survivors. Wavelet measurements of both entropy metrics were found to predict ICU mortality better than SOFA, according to a combination of area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity values. Both entropies exhibited similar prognostic accuracy. Combination of SOFA and entropy presented improved the outcome of univariate models. We suggest that reduced wavelet Shannon and Tsallis entropies of temperature signals may complement SOFA in mortality prediction, during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. (paper)

  3. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

    2012-01-01

    Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  4. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela de Lucas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. CONCLUSIONS: Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed. We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  5. Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Messerschmidt, Agnes; Sauer, Alexandra; Pollak, Arnold; Pataraia, Anna; Kasprian, Gregor; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela; Helmer, Hanns; Brugger, Peter C.

    2011-01-01

    Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

  6. Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messerschmidt, Agnes; Sauer, Alexandra; Pollak, Arnold [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Pataraia, Anna; Kasprian, Gregor; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Helmer, Hanns [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Brugger, Peter C. [Medical University of Vienna, Center of Anatomy and Cell Biology, Vienna (Austria)

    2011-11-15

    Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

  7. Islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) dose predicts insulin independence for first clinical islet allotransplants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitzmann, JP; O’Gorman, D; Kin, T; Gruessner, AC; Senior, P; Imes, S; Gruessner, RW; Shapiro, AMJ; Papas, KK

    2014-01-01

    Human islet allotransplant (ITx) for the treatment of type 1 diabetes is in phase III clinical registration trials in the US and standard of care in several other countries. Current islet product release criteria include viability based on cell membrane integrity stains, glucose stimulated insulin release (GSIR), and islet equivalent (IE) dose based on counts. However, only a fraction of patients transplanted with islets that meet or exceed these release criteria become insulin independent following one transplant. Measurements of islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) have been reported as highly predictive of transplant outcome in many models. In this paper we report on the assessment of clinical islet allograft preparations using islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) dose (or viable IE dose) and current product release assays in a series of 13 first transplant recipients. The predictive capability of each assay was examined and successful graft function was defined as 100% insulin independence within 45 days post-transplant. Results showed that OCR dose was most predictive of CTO. IE dose was also highly predictive, while GSIR and membrane integrity stains were not. In conclusion, OCR dose can predict CTO with high specificity and sensitivity and is a useful tool for evaluating islet preparations prior to clinical ITx. PMID:25131089

  8. Independence and interdependence predict health and wellbeing: divergent patterns in the United States and Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinobu Kitayama

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A cross-cultural survey was used to examine two hypotheses designed to link culture to well-being and health. The first hypothesis states that people are motivated toward prevalent cultural mandates of either independence (personal control in the United States or interdependence (relational harmony in Japan. As predicted, Americans with compromised personal control and Japanese with strained relationships reported high perceived constraint. The second hypothesis holds that people achieve well-being and health through actualizing the respective cultural mandates in their modes of being. As predicted, the strongest predictor of well-being and health was personal control in the United States, but the absence of relational strain in Japan. All analyses controlled for age, gender, and personality traits. The overall pattern of findings underscores culturally distinct pathways (independent versus interdependent in achieving these positive life outcomes.

  9. DISIS: prediction of drug response through an iterative sure independence screening.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Fang

    Full Text Available Prediction of drug response based on genomic alterations is an important task in the research of personalized medicine. Current elastic net model utilized a sure independence screening to select relevant genomic features with drug response, but it may neglect the combination effect of some marginally weak features. In this work, we applied an iterative sure independence screening scheme to select drug response relevant features from the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia (CCLE dataset. For each drug in CCLE, we selected up to 40 features including gene expressions, mutation and copy number alterations of cancer-related genes, and some of them are significantly strong features but showing weak marginal correlation with drug response vector. Lasso regression based on the selected features showed that our prediction accuracies are higher than those by elastic net regression for most drugs.

  10. Moving from measuring to predicting bycatch mortality: predicting the capture condition of a longline-caught pelagic shark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek Richard Dapp

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Incidental fisheries capture has been identified as having a major effect on shark populations throughout the world. However, factors that contribute to the mortality of shark bycatch during fisheries capture are not fully understood. Here, we investigated the effects of capture duration, sea surface temperature, and shark total length (snout to the tip of the upper caudal lobe on the physiology and condition of longline-caught bronze whalers, Carcharhinus brachyurus. Plasma lactate and potassium concentration had a positive linear relationship with capture duration, indicating that this species experiences increasing physiological challenges while on fishing gear. Additionally, we used stereotype logistic regression models to determine variables that could predict the capture condition of sharks (categorized as healthy, sluggish, or moribund or dead. In these models, elevated plasma lactate concentration, plasma potassium concentration, and capture duration increased the likelihood of C. brachyurus being captured in a sluggish condition or in a moribund or dead condition. After plasma lactate concentration exceeded 27.4 mmol/L, plasma potassium concentration exceeded 8.3 mmol/L, or capture durations exceeded 293 minutes, the majority of captured sharks (>50% were predicted to be moribund or dead. We recommend that a reduction in the amount of time longlines are left fishing (soak time will reduce immediate and post-release mortality in C. brachyurus bycatch and that our methods could be applied to identify causes of fisheries-induced mortality in future studies. The identification of operational, environmental, and biological variables contributing to poor condition will be necessary to implement conservation strategies that reduce mortality during capture.

  11. Discrimination ability of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to predict mortality in community-dwelling older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lund, Rikke

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions in community-dwelling older people and whether it changes with increasing age. PARTICIPANTS: 36,751 community-dwelling subjects aged 50-100 from the longitudinal Survey of Health......, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. METHODS: Mortality risk associated with Comorbidity Index, Frailty Index, Frailty Phenotype, and subjective health was analysed using Cox regression. The extent to which health indicators modified individual mortality risk predictions was examined and the added ability......, and household income. CONCLUSION: Calendar age encompasses most of the discrimination ability to predict mortality. The added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions decreases with increasing age....

  12. Butyrylcholinesterase Levels on Admission Predict Severity and 12-Month Mortality in Hospitalized AIDS Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lijun; Huang, Ying; Yang, Zongxing; Sun, Jia; Xu, Yan; Zheng, Jinlei; Kinloch, Sabine; Yin, Michael T.; Weng, Honglei

    2018-01-01

    Background Butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) is synthesized mainly in the liver and an important marker in many infectious/inflammatory diseases, but its role in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients is not clear. We wished to ascertain if BChE level is associated with the progression/prognosis of AIDS patients. Methods BChE levels (in U/L) were measured in 505 patients; assessed. Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards model were used to assess associations between low BChE levels and mortality, after adjustment for age, CD4 count, WHO stage, and laboratory parameters. Results A total of 129 patients (25.5%) had a lower BChE level. BChE was closely associated with CD4 count, WHO stage, CRP level, and BMI (all P AIDS severity and is an independent risk factor for increased mortality in AIDS patients. PMID:29736152

  13. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-02-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

  14. Reduced brain/serum glucose ratios predict cerebral metabolic distress and mortality after severe brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Pedro; Claassen, Jan; Schmidt, J Michael; Helbok, Raimund; Hanafy, Khalid A; Presciutti, Mary; Lantigua, Hector; Connolly, E Sander; Lee, Kiwon; Badjatia, Neeraj; Mayer, Stephan A

    2013-12-01

    The brain is dependent on glucose to meet its energy demands. We sought to evaluate the potential importance of impaired glucose transport by assessing the relationship between brain/serum glucose ratios, cerebral metabolic distress, and mortality after severe brain injury. We studied 46 consecutive comatose patients with subarachnoid or intracerebral hemorrhage, traumatic brain injury, or cardiac arrest who underwent cerebral microdialysis and intracranial pressure monitoring. Continuous insulin infusion was used to maintain target serum glucose levels of 80-120 mg/dL (4.4-6.7 mmol/L). General linear models of logistic function utilizing generalized estimating equations were used to relate predictors of cerebral metabolic distress (defined as a lactate/pyruvate ratio [LPR] ≥ 40) and mortality. A total of 5,187 neuromonitoring hours over 300 days were analyzed. Mean serum glucose was 133 mg/dL (7.4 mmol/L). The median brain/serum glucose ratio, calculated hourly, was substantially lower (0.12) than the expected normal ratio of 0.40 (brain 2.0 and serum 5.0 mmol/L). In addition to low cerebral perfusion pressure (P = 0.05) and baseline Glasgow Coma Scale score (P brain/serum glucose ratios below the median of 0.12 were independently associated with an increased risk of metabolic distress (adjusted OR = 1.4 [1.2-1.7], P brain/serum glucose ratios were also independently associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR = 6.7 [1.2-38.9], P brain/serum glucose ratios, consistent with impaired glucose transport across the blood brain barrier, are associated with cerebral metabolic distress and increased mortality after severe brain injury.

  15. Mortality after Spontaneous Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Causality and Validation of a Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abulhasan, Yasser B; Alabdulraheem, Najayeb; Simoneau, Gabrielle; Angle, Mark R; Teitelbaum, Jeanne

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate primary causes of death after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and externally validate the HAIR score, a prognostication tool, in a single academic institution. We reviewed all patients with SAH admitted to our neuro-intensive care unit between 2010 and 2016. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. The HAIR score predictors were Hunt and Hess grade at treatment decision, age, intraventricular hemorrhage, and rebleeding within 24 hours. Validation of the HAIR score was characterized with the receiver operating curve, the area under the curve, and a calibration plot. Among 434 patients with SAH, in-hospital mortality was 14.1%. Of the 61 mortalities, 54 (88.5%) had a neurologic cause of death or withdrawal of care and 7 (11.5%) had cardiac death. Median time from SAH to death was 6 days. The main causes of death were effect of the initial hemorrhage (26.2%), rebleeding (23%) and refractory cerebral edema (19.7%). Factors significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in the multivariate analysis were age, Hunt and Hess grade, and intracerebral hemorrhage. Maximum lumen size was also a significant risk factor after aneurysmal SAH. The HAIR score had a satisfactory discriminative ability, with an area under the curve of 0.89. The in-hospital mortality is lower than in previous reports, attesting to the continuing improvement of our institutional SAH care. The major causes are the same as in previous reports. Despite a different therapeutic protocol, the HAIR score showed good discrimination and could be a useful tool for predicting mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

    2012-05-22

    No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

  17. A New Weighted Injury Severity Scoring System: Better Predictive Power for Pediatric Trauma Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Junxin; Shen, Jiabin; Caupp, Sarah; Wang, Angela; Nuss, Kathryn E; Kenney, Brian; Wheeler, Krista K; Lu, Bo; Xiang, Henry

    2018-05-02

    An accurate injury severity measurement is essential for the evaluation of pediatric trauma care and outcome research. The traditional Injury Severity Score (ISS) does not consider the differential risks of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) from different body regions nor is it pediatric specific. The objective of this study was to develop a weighted injury severity scoring (wISS) system for pediatric blunt trauma patients with better predictive power than ISS. Based on the association between mortality and AIS from each of the six ISS body regions, we generated different weights for the component AIS scores used in the calculation of ISS. The weights and wISS were generated using the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB). The Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) was used to validate our main results. Pediatric blunt trauma patients less than 16 years were included, and mortality was the outcome. Discrimination (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, concordance) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic) were compared between the wISS and ISS. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves from the wISS and ISS are 0.88 vs. 0.86 in ISS=1-74 and 0.77 vs. 0.64 in ISS=25-74 (ppredictive value, negative predictive value, and concordance when they were compared at similar levels of sensitivity. The wISS had better calibration (smaller Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic) than the ISS (11.6 versus 19.7 for ISS=1-74 and 10.9 versus 12.6 for ISS= 25-74). The wISS showed even better discrimination with the NEDS. By weighting the AIS from different body regions, the wISS had significantly better predictive power for mortality than the ISS, especially in critically injured children.Level of Evidence and study typeLevel IV Prognostic/Epidemiological.

  18. Cardiac Troponin Elevation Predicts Mortality in Patients Undergoing Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Snipelisky

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. While patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT have high cardiovascular event rates, preoperative risk stratification may not necessarily predict those susceptible patients. Troponin T (TnT may help predict patients at risk for cardiovascular complications. Methods. Consecutive patients undergoing OLT at Mayo Clinic in Florida between 1998 and 2010 who had TnT obtained within 10 days following surgery were included. Three groups were compared based on TnT level: (1 normal (TnT ≤0.01 ng/mL, (2 intermediate (TnT 0.02–0.11 ng/mL, and (3 elevated (TnT >0.11 ng/mL. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was assessed. Results. Of the 78 patients included, there was no difference in age, gender, severity of liver disease, and echocardiographic findings. Patients in the normal and intermediate TnT groups had a lower overall mortality rate (14.3% and 0%, resp. when compared with those with elevated TnT (50%; P=0.001. Patients in the elevated TnT group had a cardiovascular mortality rate of 37.5% compared with 1.4% in the other groups combined (P<0.01. The elevated TnT group had a much higher mortality rate when compared with those in the intermediate group (P<0.0001. Conclusion. TnT may accurately help risk stratify patients in the early postoperative setting to better predict cardiovascular complications.

  19. Should the IDC-9 Trauma Mortality Prediction Model become the new paradigm for benchmarking trauma outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haider, Adil H; Villegas, Cassandra V; Saleem, Taimur; Efron, David T; Stevens, Kent A; Oyetunji, Tolulope A; Cornwell, Edward E; Bowman, Stephen; Haack, Sara; Baker, Susan P; Schneider, Eric B

    2012-06-01

    Optimum quantification of injury severity remains an imprecise science with a need for improvement. The accuracy of the criterion standard Injury Severity Score (ISS) worsens as a patient's injury severity increases, especially among patients with penetrating trauma. The objective of this study was to comprehensively compare the mortality prediction ability of three anatomic injury severity indices: the ISS, the New ISS (NISS), and the DRG International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev.-Trauma Mortality Prediction Model (TMPM-ICD-9), a recently developed contemporary injury assessment model. Retrospective analysis of patients in the National Trauma Data Bank from 2007 to 2008. The TMPM-ICD-9 values were computed and compared with the ISS and NISS for each patient using in-hospital mortality after trauma as the outcome measure. Discrimination and calibration were compared using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Subgroup analysis was performed to compare each score across varying ranges of injury severity and across different types of injury. A total of 533,898 patients were identified with a crude mortality rate of 4.7%. The ISS and NISS performed equally in the groups with minor (ISS, 1-8) and moderate (ISS, 9-15) injuries, regardless of the injury type. However, in the populations with severe (ISS, 16-24) and very severe (ISS, ≥ 25) injuries for all injury types, the NISS predicted mortality better than the ISS did. The TMPM-ICD-9 outperformed both the NISS and ISS almost consistently. The NISS and TMPM-ICD-9 are both superior predictors of mortality as compared with the ISS. The immediate adoption of NISS for evaluating trauma outcomes using trauma registry data is recommended. The TMPM-ICD-9 may be an even better measure of human injury, and its use in administrative or nonregistry data is suggested. Further research on its attributes is recommended because it has the potential to become the basis for benchmarking trauma outcomes

  20. Regional variation in the predictive validity of self-rated health for mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Berchick

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Self-rated health (SRH is a commonly used measure for assessing general health in surveys in the United States. However, individuals from different parts of the United States may vary in how they assess their health. Geographic differences in health care access and in the prevalence of illnesses may make it difficult to discern true regional differences in health when using SRH as a health measure. In this article, we use data from the 1986 and 1989–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files and estimate Cox regression models to examine whether the relationship between SRH and five-year all-cause mortality differs by Census region. Contrary to hypotheses, there is no evidence of regional variation in the predictive validity of SRH for mortality. At all levels of SRH, and for both non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black respondents, SRH is equally and strongly associated with five-year mortality across regions. Our results suggest that differences in SRH across regions are not solely due to differences in how respondents assess their health across regions, but reflect true differences in health. Future research can, therefore, employ this common measure to investigate the geographic patterning of health in the United States.

  1. Validation of the MARS (Medical Admission Risk System): A combined physiological and laboratory risk prediction tool for 5- to 7-day in-hospital mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohman, Malin Charlotta; Atkins, Tara E Holm; Cooksley, Tim; Brabrand, Mikkel

    2018-03-10

    The MARS (Medical Admission Risk System) uses 11 physiological and laboratory data and had promising results in its derivation study for predicting 5 and 7 day mortality. To perform an external independent validation of the MARS score. An unplanned secondary cohort study. Patients admitted to the medical admission unit (MAU) at The Hospital of South West Jutland were included from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009 and 23 February 2010 until 26 May 2010 were analysed. Validation of the MARS score using 5 and 7 day mortality was the primary endpoint. 5858 patients were included in the study. 2923 (49.9%) patients were women with a median age of 65 years (15-107). The MARS score had an AUROC of 0.858 (95% CI: 0.831-0.884) for 5-day mortality and 0.844 (0.818-0.870) for 7 day mortality with poor calibration for both outcomes. The MARS score had excellent discriminatory power but poor calibration in predicting both 5 and 7-day mortality. The development of accurate combination physiological/laboratory data risk scores has the potential to improve the recognition of at risk patients.

  2. Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicted vitamin D status and colon cancer recurrence and mortality in CALGB 89803 (Alliance).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, M A; Yuan, C; Sato, K; Niedzwiecki, D; Ye, X; Saltz, L B; Mayer, R J; Mowat, R B; Whittom, R; Hantel, A; Benson, A; Atienza, D; Messino, M; Kindler, H; Venook, A; Innocenti, F; Warren, R S; Bertagnolli, M M; Ogino, S; Giovannucci, E L; Horvath, E; Meyerhardt, J A; Ng, K

    2017-06-01

    Observational studies suggest that higher levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25(OH)D) are associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer and improved survival of colorectal cancer patients. However, the influence of vitamin D status on cancer recurrence and survival of patients with stage III colon cancer is unknown. We prospectively examined the influence of post-diagnosis predicted plasma 25(OH)D on outcome among 1016 patients with stage III colon cancer who were enrolled in a National Cancer Institute-sponsored adjuvant therapy trial (CALGB 89803). Predicted 25(OH)D scores were computed using validated regression models. We examined the influence of predicted 25(OH)D scores on cancer recurrence and mortality (disease-free survival; DFS) using Cox proportional hazards. Patients in the highest quintile of predicted 25(OH)D score had an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for colon cancer recurrence or mortality (DFS) of 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.44-0.86), compared with those in the lowest quintile (Ptrend = 0.005). Higher predicted 25(OH)D score was also associated with a significant improvement in recurrence-free survival and overall survival (Ptrend = 0.01 and 0.0004, respectively). The benefit associated with higher predicted 25(OH)D score appeared consistent across predictors of cancer outcome and strata of molecular tumor characteristics, including microsatellite instability and KRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA, and TP53 mutation status. Higher predicted 25(OH)D levels after a diagnosis of stage III colon cancer may be associated with decreased recurrence and improved survival. Clinical trials assessing the benefit of vitamin D supplementation in the adjuvant setting are warranted. NCT00003835. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Incidence, Mortality, and Predictive Factors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenichi Hosonuma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The study aims to analyze in detail the incidence, mortality using the standardized incidence ratio (SIR, and standardized mortality ratio (SMR of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC, because no large case studies have focused on the detailed statistical analysis of them in Asia. Methods. The study cohorts were consecutively diagnosed at Gunma University and its affiliated hospitals. Age- or sex-specific annual cancer incidence and deaths were obtained from Japanese Cancer Registry and Death Registry as a reference for the comparison of SIR or SMR of HCC. Moreover, univariate analyses and multivariate analyses were performed to clarify predictive factors for the incidence of HCC. Results. The overall 179 patients were followed up for a median of 97 months. HCC had developed in 13 cases. SIR for HCC was 11.6 (95% confidence interval (CI, 6.2–19.8 and SMR for HCC was 11.2 (95% CI, 5.4–20.6 in overall patients. The serum albumin levels were a predictive factor for the incidence of HCC in overall patients. Conclusions. The incidence and mortality of HCC in PBC patients were significantly higher than those in Japanese general population. PBC patients with low serum albumin levels were populations at high risk for HCC.

  5. Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjong Lee

    Full Text Available The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC. For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001. In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.

  6. Compound Structure-Independent Activity Prediction in High-Dimensional Target Space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balfer, Jenny; Hu, Ye; Bajorath, Jürgen

    2014-08-01

    Profiling of compound libraries against arrays of targets has become an important approach in pharmaceutical research. The prediction of multi-target compound activities also represents an attractive task for machine learning with potential for drug discovery applications. Herein, we have explored activity prediction in high-dimensional target space. Different types of models were derived to predict multi-target activities. The models included naïve Bayesian (NB) and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers based upon compound structure information and NB models derived on the basis of activity profiles, without considering compound structure. Because the latter approach can be applied to incomplete training data and principally depends on the feature independence assumption, SVM modeling was not applicable in this case. Furthermore, iterative hybrid NB models making use of both activity profiles and compound structure information were built. In high-dimensional target space, NB models utilizing activity profile data were found to yield more accurate activity predictions than structure-based NB and SVM models or hybrid models. An in-depth analysis of activity profile-based models revealed the presence of correlation effects across different targets and rationalized prediction accuracy. Taken together, the results indicate that activity profile information can be effectively used to predict the activity of test compounds against novel targets. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  7. Comparison of four contemporary risk models at predicting mortality after aortic valve replacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David H M; Stewart, Ralph; Gamble, Greg; Haydock, David; Ruygrok, Peter

    2015-02-01

    Risk stratification for aortic valve replacement (AVR) is desirable given the increased demand for intervention and the introduction of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We compared the prognostic utility of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR score) for AVR. We retrospectively calculated the 4 risk scores for patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital from 2005 to 2012 and assessed their discrimination and calibration for short- and long-term mortality. A total of 620 patients were followed up for 3.8 ± 2.4 years, with an operative mortality of 2.9% (n = 18). The mean EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, STS score, and Aus-AVR score was 8.7% ± 8.3%, 3.8% ± 4.7%, 2.8% ± 2.7%, and 3.2% ± 4.8%, respectively. The corresponding C-statistics for operative mortality were 0.752 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.652-0.852), 0.711 (95% CI, 0.607-0.815), 0.716 (95% CI, 0.593-0.837), and 0.684 (95% CI, 0.557-0.811). The corresponding Hosmer-Lemeshow test P and chi-square values for calibration were .007 and 21.1, .125 and 12.6, .753 and 5.0, and .468 and 7.7. The corresponding Brier scores were 0.0348, 0.0278, 0.0276, and 0.0294. Independent predictors of operative mortality included critical preoperative state, atrial fibrillation, extracardiac arteriopathy, and mitral stenosis. The log-rank test P values were all <.001 for mortality during follow-up for all 4 scores, stratified by quintile. All 4 risk scores discriminated operative mortality after isolated AVR. The EuroSCORE had poor calibration, overestimating operative mortality, although the other 3 scores fitted well with contemporary outcomes. The STS score was the best calibrated in the highest quintile of operative risk. Copyright © 2015 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Increase in waist circumference over 6 years predicts subsequent cardiovascular disease and total mortality in nordic women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klingberg, Sofia; Mehlig, Kirsten; Lanfer, Anne

    2015-01-01

    -shaped association. Associations between increase in WC and outcomes were restricted to women with normal weight at baseline and to ever-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to changes in HC which did not predict mortality and CVD, a 6-year increase in WC is strongly predictive, particularly among initially lean women...... and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women but that gain or loss in HC was unrelated to these outcomes. This study examines whether a 6-year change in waist circumference (WC) predicts mortality and CVD in the same study sample. METHODS: Baseline WC and 6-year change in WC as predictors of mortality and CVD...... were analyzed in 2,492 women from the Danish MONICA study and the Prospective Population Study of Women in Gothenburg, Sweden. RESULTS: Increase in WC was significantly associated with increased subsequent mortality and CVD adjusting for BMI and other covariates, with some evidence of a J...

  9. Serum angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality following open surgical repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Wanpin; Wang, Yan; Yao, Kai; Wang, Zheng; Wu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Open surgical repair (OSR) is a conventional surgical method used in the repair a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA); however, OSR results in high perioperative mortality rates. The level of serum angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) has been reported to be an independent risk factor for postoperative in-hospital mortality following major cardiopulmonary surgery. In the present study, the association of serum ACE2 levels with postoperative in-hospital mortality was investigated in patients undergoing OSR for ruptured AAA. The study enrolled 84 consecutive patients underwent OSR for ruptured AAA and were subsequently treated in the intensive care unit. Patients who succumbed postoperatively during hospitalization were defined as non-survivors. Serum ACE2 levels were measured in all patients prior to and following the surgery using ELISA kits. The results indicated that non-survivors showed significantly lower mean preoperative and postoperative serum ACE2 levels when compared with those in survivors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that, subsequent to adjusting for potential confounders, the serum ACE2 level on preoperative day 1 showed a significant negative association with the postoperative in-hospital mortality. This was confirmed by multivariate hazard ratio analysis, which showed that, subsequent to adjusting for the various potential confounders, the risk of postoperative in-hospital mortality remained significantly higher in the two lowest serum ACE2 level quartiles compared with that in the highest quartile on preoperative day 1. In conclusion, the present study provided the first evidence supporting that the serum ACE2 level is an independent risk factor for the in-hospital mortality following OSR for ruptured AAA. Furthermore, low serum ACE2 levels on preoperative day 1 were found to be associated with increased postoperative in-hospital mortality. Therefore, the serum ACE2 level on preoperative day 1 may be a potential

  10. Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grauslund, J; Green, A; Sjølie, A K

    2008-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We evaluated the effect of diabetic retinopathy on 25 year survival rate among a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark. METHODS: In 1973 all diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark with onset before the age of 30 years as of 1 July 1973...... were identified (n=727). In 1981, only 627 patients were still alive and resident in Denmark. Of these, 573 (91%) participated in a clinical baseline examination, in which diabetic retinopathy was graded and other markers of diabetes measured. Mortality rate was examined in a 25 year follow....../INTERPRETATION: Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients. In combination they act even more strongly. Non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy did not affect survival rate....

  11. Poor caregiver mental health predicts mortality of patients with neurodegenerative disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lwi, Sandy J; Ford, Brett Q; Casey, James J; Miller, Bruce L; Levenson, Robert W

    2017-07-11

    Dementia and other neurodegenerative diseases cause profound declines in functioning; thus, many patients require caregivers for assistance with daily living. Patients differ greatly in how long they live after disease onset, with the nature and severity of the disease playing an important role. Caregiving can also be extremely stressful, and many caregivers experience declines in mental health. In this study, we investigated the role that caregiver mental health plays in patient mortality. In 176 patient-caregiver dyads, we found that worse caregiver mental health predicted greater patient mortality even when accounting for key risk factors in patients (i.e., diagnosis, age, sex, dementia severity, and patient mental health). These findings highlight the importance of caring for caregivers as well as patients when attempting to improve patients' lives.

  12. The ratio of CRP to prealbumin levels predict mortality in patients with hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

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    Hao Chuanming

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Animal and human studies suggest that inflammation and malnutrition are common in acute kidney injury (AKI patients. However, only a few studies reported CRP, a marker of inflammation, albumin, prealbumin and cholesterol, markers of nutritional status were associated with the prognosis of AKI patients. No study examined whether the combination of inflammatory and nutritional markers could predict the mortality of AKI patients. Methods 155 patients with hospital-acquired AKI were recruited to this prospective cohort study according to RIFLE (Risk, Injury, Failure, Lost or End Stage Kidney criteria. C-reactive protein (CRP, and the nutritional markers (albumin, prealbumin and cholesterol measured at nephrology consultation were analyzed in relation to all cause mortality of these patients. In addition, CRP and prealbumin were also measured in healthy controls (n = 45, maintenance hemodialysis (n = 70 and peritoneal dialysis patients (n = 50 and then compared with AKI patients. Results Compared with healthy controls and end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis, patients with AKI had significantly higher levels of CRP/prealbumin (p 28 days. Similarly, the combined factors including the ratio of CRP to albumin (CRP/albumin, CRP/prealbumin and CRP/cholesterol were also significantly higher in the former group (p p = 0.027 while the others (CRP, albumin, prealbumin, cholesterol, CRP/albumin and CRP/cholesterol became non-significantly associated. The hazard ratio was 1.00 (reference, 1.85, 2.25 and 3.89 for CRP/prealbumin increasing according to quartiles (p = 0.01 for the trend. Conclusions Inflammation and malnutrition were common in patients with AKI. Higher level of the ratio of CRP to prealbumin was associated with mortality of AKI patients independent of the severity of illness and it may be a valuable addition to SOFA score to independent of the severity of illness and it may be a

  13. Hepcidin-25 in diabetic chronic kidney disease is predictive for mortality and progression to end stage renal disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Wagner

    Full Text Available Anemia is common and is associated with impaired clinical outcomes in diabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD. It may be explained by reduced erythropoietin (EPO synthesis, but recent data suggest that EPO-resistance and diminished iron availability due to inflammation contribute significantly. In this cohort study, we evaluated the impact of hepcidin-25--the key hormone of iron-metabolism--on clinical outcomes in diabetic patients with CKD along with endogenous EPO levels.249 diabetic patients with CKD of any stage, excluding end-stage renal disease (ESRD, were enrolled (2003-2005, if they were not on EPO-stimulating agent and iron therapy. Hepcidin-25 levels were measured by radioimmunoassay. The association of hepcidin-25 at baseline with clinical variables was investigated using linear regression models. All-cause mortality and a composite endpoint of CKD progression (ESRD or doubling of serum creatinine were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models.Patients (age 67 yrs, 53% male, GFR 51 ml/min, hemoglobin 131 g/L, EPO 13.5 U/L, hepcidin-25 62.0 ng/ml were followed for a median time of 4.2 yrs. Forty-nine patients died (19.7% and forty (16.1% patients reached the composite endpoint. Elevated hepcidin levels were independently associated with higher ferritin-levels, lower EPO-levels and impaired kidney function (all p<0.05. Hepcidin was related to mortality, along with its interaction with EPO, older age, greater proteinuria and elevated CRP (all p<0.05. Hepcidin was also predictive for progression of CKD, aside from baseline GFR, proteinuria, low albumin- and hemoglobin-levels and a history of CVD (all p<0.05.We found hepcidin-25 to be associated with EPO and impaired kidney function in diabetic CKD. Elevated hepcidin-25 and EPO-levels were independent predictors of mortality, while hepcidin-25 was also predictive for progression of CKD. Both hepcidin-25 and EPO may represent important prognostic factors of clinical outcome and have the

  14. Increased serum concentrations of soluble ST2 predict mortality after burn injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Stefan; Dieplinger, Benjamin; Werba, Gregor; Nickl, Stefanie; Roth, Georg A; Krenn, Claus G; Mueller, Thomas; Ankersmit, Hendrik J; Haider, Thomas

    2018-06-27

    Large burn injuries induce a systemic response in affected patients. Soluble ST2 (sST2) acts as a decoy receptor for interleukin-33 (IL-33) and has immunosuppressive effects. sST2 has been described previously as a prognostic serum marker. Our aim was to evaluate serum concentrations of sST2 and IL-33 after thermal injury and elucidate whether sST2 is associated with mortality in these patients. We included 32 burn patients (total body surface area [TBSA] >10%) admitted to our burn intensive care unit and compared them to eight healthy probands. Serum concentrations of sST2 and IL-33 were measured serially using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. The mean TBSA was 32.5%±19.6%. Six patients (18.8%) died during the hospital stay. Serum analyses showed significantly increased concentrations of sST2 and reduced concentrations of IL-33 in burn patients compared to healthy controls. In our study cohort, higher serum concentrations of sST2 were a strong independent predictor of mortality. Burn injuries cause an increment of sST2 serum concentrations with a concomitant reduction of IL-33. Higher concentrations of sST2 are associated with increased in-hospital mortality in burn patients.

  15. Accuracy of circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, T; Huang, W; Szatmary, P; Abrams, S T; Alhamdi, Y; Lin, Z; Greenhalf, W; Wang, G; Sutton, R; Toh, C H

    2017-08-01

    Early prediction of acute pancreatitis severity remains a challenge. Circulating levels of histones are raised early in mouse models and correlate with disease severity. It was hypothesized that circulating histones predict persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis. Consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis fulfilling inclusion criteria admitted to Royal Liverpool University Hospital were enrolled prospectively between June 2010 and March 2014. Blood samples were obtained within 48 h of abdominal pain onset and relevant clinical data during the hospital stay were collected. Healthy volunteers were enrolled as controls. The primary endpoint was occurrence of persistent organ failure. The predictive values of circulating histones, clinical scores and other biomarkers were determined. Among 236 patients with acute pancreatitis, there were 156 (66·1 per cent), 57 (24·2 per cent) and 23 (9·7 per cent) with mild, moderate and severe disease respectively, according to the revised Atlanta classification. Forty-seven healthy volunteers were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality was 0·92 (95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 0·99) and 0·96 (0·92 to 1·00) respectively; histones were at least as accurate as clinical scores or biochemical markers. For infected pancreatic necrosis and/or sepsis, the AUC was 0·78 (0·62 to 0·94). Histones did not predict or correlate with local pancreatic complications, but correlated negatively with leucocyte cell viability (r = -0·511, P = 0·001). Quantitative assessment of circulating histones in plasma within 48 h of abdominal pain onset can predict persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Early death of immune cells may contribute to raised circulating histone levels in acute pancreatitis. © 2017 The Authors. BJS published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of BJS

  16. ACTH deficiency, higher doses of hydrocortisone replacement, and radiotherapy are independent predictors of mortality in patients with acromegaly.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Sherlock, M

    2009-11-01

    A number of retrospective studies report that patients with acromegaly have increased morbidity and premature mortality, with standardized mortality ratios (SMR) of 1.3-3. Many patients with acromegaly develop hypopituitarism as a result of the pituitary adenoma itself or therapies such as surgery and radiotherapy. Pituitary radiotherapy and hypopituitarism have also been associated with an increased SMR.

  17. Predictive Ability of the SYNergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXus and Cardiac Surgery Score II for Long-term Mortality in Patients with Three-vessel Coronary Artery Disease Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Treated with Second-generation Drug-eluting Stents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Qiang He

    2015-01-01

    Conclusion: The SS-II is an independent predictor of 5-year mortality in patients with three-vessel CAD undergoing PCI treated with second-generation DES, and demonstrates a superior predictive ability over the SS alone.

  18. Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: Clinical and computed tomography findings in predicting in-hospital mortality in Central Africans

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    Michel Lelo Tshikwela

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH constitutes now 52% of all strokes. Despite of its deadly pattern, locally there is no clinical grading scale for ICH-related mortality prediction. The first objective of this study was to develop a risk stratification scale (Kinshasa ICH score by assessing the strength of independent predictors and their association with in-hospital 30-day mortality. The second objective of the study was to create a specific local and African model for ICH prognosis. Materials and Methods: Age, sex, hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, smoking, alcohol intake, and neuroimaging data from CT scan (ICH volume, Midline shift of patients admitted with primary ICH and follow-upped in 33 hospitals of Kinshasa, DR Congo, from 2005 to 2008, were analyzed using logistic regression models. Results: A total of 185 adults and known hypertensive patients (140 men and 45 women were examined. 30-day mortality rate was 35% (n=65. ICH volume>25 mL (OR=8 95% CI: 3.1-20.2; P 7 mm, a consequence of ICH volume, was also a significant predictor of mortality. The Kinshasa ICH score was the sum of individual points assigned as follows: Presence of coma coded 2 (2 × 2 = 4, absence of coma coded 1 (1 × 2 = 2, ICH volume>25 mL coded 2 (2 × 2=4, ICH volume of ≤25 mL coded 1(1 × 2=2, left hemispheric site of ICH coded 2 (2 × 1=2, and right hemispheric site of hemorrhage coded 1(1 × 1 = 1. All patients with Kinshasa ICH score ≤7 survived and the patients with a score >7 died. In considering sex influence (Model 3, points were allowed as follows: Presence of coma (2 × 3 = 6, absence of coma (1 × 3 = 3, men (2 × 2 = 4, women (1 × 2 = 2, midline shift ≤7 mm (1 × 3 = 3, and midline shift >7 mm (2 × 3 = 6. Patients who died had the Kinshasa ICH score ≥16. Conclusion: In this study, the Kinshasa ICH score seems to be an accurate method for distinguishing those ICH patients who need continuous and special management

  19. Expression profiling to predict the clinical behaviour of ovarian cancer fails independent evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gevaert, Olivier; De Smet, Frank; Van Gorp, Toon; Pochet, Nathalie; Engelen, Kristof; Amant, Frederic; De Moor, Bart; Timmerman, Dirk; Vergote, Ignace

    2008-01-01

    In a previously published pilot study we explored the performance of microarrays in predicting clinical behaviour of ovarian tumours. For this purpose we performed microarray analysis on 20 patients and estimated that we could predict advanced stage disease with 100% accuracy and the response to platin-based chemotherapy with 76.92% accuracy using leave-one-out cross validation techniques in combination with Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVMs). In the current study we evaluate whether tumour characteristics in an independent set of 49 patients can be predicted using the pilot data set with principal component analysis or LS-SVMs. The results of the principal component analysis suggest that the gene expression data from stage I, platin-sensitive advanced stage and platin-resistant advanced stage tumours in the independent data set did not correspond to their respective classes in the pilot study. Additionally, LS-SVM models built using the data from the pilot study – although they only misclassified one of four stage I tumours and correctly classified all 45 advanced stage tumours – were not able to predict resistance to platin-based chemotherapy. Furthermore, models based on the pilot data and on previously published gene sets related to ovarian cancer outcomes, did not perform significantly better than our models. We discuss possible reasons for failure of the model for predicting response to platin-based chemotherapy and conclude that existing results based on gene expression patterns of ovarian tumours need to be thoroughly scrutinized before these results can be accepted to reflect the true performance of microarray technology

  20. Density-independent mortality and increasing plant diversity are associated with differentiation of Taraxacum officinale into r- and K-strategists.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annett Lipowsky

    Full Text Available Differential selection between clones of apomictic species may result in ecological differentiation without mutation and recombination, thus offering a simple system to study adaptation and life-history evolution in plants.We caused density-independent mortality by weeding to colonizer populations of the largely apomictic Taraxacum officinale (Asteraceae over a 5-year period in a grassland biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment. We compared the offspring of colonizer populations with resident populations deliberately sown into similar communities. Plants raised from cuttings and seeds of colonizer and resident populations were grown under uniform conditions. Offspring from colonizer populations had higher reproductive output, which was in general agreement with predictions of r-selection theory. Offspring from resident populations had higher root and leaf biomass, fewer flower heads and higher individual seed mass as predicted under K-selection. Plants grown from cuttings and seeds differed to some degree in the strength, but not in the direction, of their response to the r- vs. K-selection regime. More diverse communities appeared to exert stronger K-selection on resident populations in plants grown from cuttings, while we did not find significant effects of increasing species richness on plants grown from seeds.Differentiation into r- and K-strategists suggests that clones with characteristics of r-strategists were selected in regularly weeded plots through rapid colonization, while increasing plant diversity favoured the selection of clones with characteristics of K-strategists in resident populations. Our results show that different selection pressures may result in a rapid genetic differentiation within a largely apomictic species. Even under the assumption that colonizer and resident populations, respectively, happened to be r- vs. K-selected already at the start of the experiment, our results still indicate that the association of these

  1. Density-independent mortality and increasing plant diversity are associated with differentiation of Taraxacum officinale into r- and K-strategists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipowsky, Annett; Roscher, Christiane; Schumacher, Jens; Schmid, Bernhard

    2012-01-01

    Differential selection between clones of apomictic species may result in ecological differentiation without mutation and recombination, thus offering a simple system to study adaptation and life-history evolution in plants. We caused density-independent mortality by weeding to colonizer populations of the largely apomictic Taraxacum officinale (Asteraceae) over a 5-year period in a grassland biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment). We compared the offspring of colonizer populations with resident populations deliberately sown into similar communities. Plants raised from cuttings and seeds of colonizer and resident populations were grown under uniform conditions. Offspring from colonizer populations had higher reproductive output, which was in general agreement with predictions of r-selection theory. Offspring from resident populations had higher root and leaf biomass, fewer flower heads and higher individual seed mass as predicted under K-selection. Plants grown from cuttings and seeds differed to some degree in the strength, but not in the direction, of their response to the r- vs. K-selection regime. More diverse communities appeared to exert stronger K-selection on resident populations in plants grown from cuttings, while we did not find significant effects of increasing species richness on plants grown from seeds. Differentiation into r- and K-strategists suggests that clones with characteristics of r-strategists were selected in regularly weeded plots through rapid colonization, while increasing plant diversity favoured the selection of clones with characteristics of K-strategists in resident populations. Our results show that different selection pressures may result in a rapid genetic differentiation within a largely apomictic species. Even under the assumption that colonizer and resident populations, respectively, happened to be r- vs. K-selected already at the start of the experiment, our results still indicate that the association of these strategies with

  2. Progressive rise in red blood cell distribution width predicts mortality and cardiovascular events in end-stage renal disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Hye Eun; Kim, Sung Jun; Hwang, Hyeon Seok; Chung, Sungjin; Yang, Chul Woo; Shin, Seok Joon

    2015-01-01

    Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is a robust marker of adverse clinical outcomes in various populations. However, the clinical significance of a progressive rise in RDW is undetermined in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic importance of a change in RDW in ESRD patients. Three hundred twenty-six incident dialysis patients were retrospectively analyzed. Temporal changes in RDW during 12 months after dialysis initiation were assessed by calculating the coefficients by linear regression. Patients were divided into two groups: an RDW-decreased group who had negative coefficient values (n = 177) and an RDW-increased group who had positive values (n = 149). The associations between rising RDW and mortality and cardiovascular (CV) events were investigated. During a median follow-up of 2.7 years (range, 1.0-7.7 years), 75 deaths (24.0%) and 60 non-fatal CV events (18.4%) occurred. The event-free survival rate for the composite of end-points was lower in the RDW-increased group (P = 0.004). After categorizing patients according to baseline RDW, the event-free survival rate was lowest in patients with a baseline RDW >14.9% and increased RDW, and highest in patients with a baseline RDW ≤14.9% and decreased RDW (P = 0.02). In multivariate analysis, rising RDW was independently associated with the composite of end-points (hazard ratio = 1.75, P = 0.007), whereas the baseline RDW was not. This study shows that a progressive rise in RDW independently predicted mortality and CV events in ESRD patients. Rising RDW could be an additive predictor for adverse CV outcomes ESRD patients.

  3. Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herng-Chia Chiu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression (LR models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation.

  4. Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Herng-Chia; Ho, Te-Wei; Lee, King-Teh; Chen, Hong-Yaw; Ho, Wen-Hsien

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation. PMID:23737707

  5. Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Wu

    Full Text Available Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available.

  6. The Ability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE IV Score to Predict Mortality in a Single Tertiary Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Woo Choi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II model has been widely used in Korea. However, there have been few studies on the APACHE IV model in Korean intensive care units (ICUs. The aim of this study was to compare the ability of APACHE IV and APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality, and to investigate the ability of APACHE IV as a critical care triage criterion. Methods The study was designed as a prospective cohort study. Measurements of discrimination and calibration were performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test respectively. We also calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR. Results The APACHE IV score, the Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI score, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and unplanned ICU admissions were independently associated with hospital mortality. The calibration, discrimination, and SMR of APACHE IV were good (H = 7.67, P = 0.465; C = 3.42, P = 0.905; AUROC = 0.759; SMR = 1.00. However, the explanatory power of an APACHE IV score >93 alone on hospital mortality was low at 44.1%. The explanatory power was increased to 53.8% when the hospital mortality was predicted using a model that considers APACHE IV >93 scores, medical admission, and risk factors for CCI >3 coincidentally. However, the discriminative ability of the prediction model was unsatisfactory (C index <0.70. Conclusions The APACHE IV presented good discrimination, calibration, and SMR for hospital mortality.

  7. The Glasgow Prognostic Score at the Time of Palliative Esophageal Stent Insertion is a Predictive Factor of 30-Day Mortality and Overall Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driver, Robert J; Handforth, Catherine; Radhakrishna, Ganesh; Bennett, Michael I; Ford, Alexander C; Everett, Simon M

    2018-03-01

    Optimizing the timing of esophageal stent insertion is a challenge, partly due to difficulty predicting survival in advanced malignancy. The Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) is a validated tool for predicting survival in a number of cancers. To assess the utility of the GPS in predicting 30-day mortality and overall survival postesophageal stent insertion. Patients at a tertiary referral center who had received an esophageal stent for palliation of dysphagia were included if they had a measurement of albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP) in the week preceding the procedure (n=209). Patients with both an elevated CRP (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were given a GPS score of 2 (GPS2). Patients with only one of these abnormalities were assigned as GPS1 and those with normal CRP and albumin were assigned as GPS0. Clinical and pathologic parameters were also collected to assess for potential confounding factors in the survival analysis. Increasing GPS was associated with 30-day mortality; for patients with GPS0, 30-day mortality was 5% (2/43), for GPS1 it was 23% (26/114), and for GPS2 it was 33% (17/52). The adjusted hazard ratio for overall poststent mortality was 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.4; P=0.02) for GPS1 and 2.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.8; PGPS2 patients compared with GPS0. GPS is an independent prognostic factor of 30-day mortality and overall survival after esophageal stent insertion. It is a potential adjunct to clinical assessment in identifying those patients at high-risk of short-term mortality poststent.

  8. Dead or Alive? Using Membrane Failure and Chlorophyll a Fluorescence to Predict Plant Mortality from Drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guadagno, Carmela R; Ewers, Brent E; Speckman, Heather N; Aston, Timothy Llewellyn; Huhn, Bridger J; DeVore, Stanley B; Ladwig, Joshua T; Strawn, Rachel N; Weinig, Cynthia

    2017-09-01

    Climate models predict widespread increases in both drought intensity and duration in the next decades. Although water deficiency is a significant determinant of plant survival, limited understanding of plant responses to extreme drought impedes forecasts of both forest and crop productivity under increasing aridity. Drought induces a suite of physiological responses; however, we lack an accurate mechanistic description of plant response to lethal drought that would improve predictive understanding of mortality under altered climate conditions. Here, proxies for leaf cellular damage, chlorophyll a fluorescence, and electrolyte leakage were directly associated with failure to recover from drought upon rewatering in Brassica rapa (genotype R500) and thus define the exact timing of drought-induced death. We validated our results using a second genotype (imb211) that differs substantially in life history traits. Our study demonstrates that whereas changes in carbon dynamics and water transport are critical indicators of drought stress, they can be unrelated to visible metrics of mortality, i.e. lack of meristematic activity and regrowth. In contrast, membrane failure at the cellular scale is the most proximate cause of death. This hypothesis was corroborated in two gymnosperms ( Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta ) that experienced lethal water stress in the field and in laboratory conditions. We suggest that measurement of chlorophyll a fluorescence can be used to operationally define plant death arising from drought, and improved plant characterization can enhance surface model predictions of drought mortality and its consequences to ecosystem services at a global scale. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

  9. Single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging-assessed stress perfusion defect severity is associated with mortality independent of ethnicity in an Asian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Chee Tang; Gao, Fei; Keng, Felix Y J; Shah, Bimal R; Koh, Angela S; Tan, Ru San; Chua, Terrance S J

    2014-12-01

    Ischemic heart disease is growing by epidemic proportions in Asia. Among patients in Western populations with similar myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) ischemia severity, ethnicity is independently associated with mortality. We aimed to determine the differential prognostic value of MPI abnormality severity among three major Asian ethnic groups. From 16,921 consecutive patients, we used summed stress score to define increasing abnormal scan severity groups (minimal, mild, moderate, and severe) among Chinese, Indian, and Malay patients. We determined mortality from the national death registry. Using multivariable Cox regression models, we examined the association between ethnicity and mortality. Chinese patients were older than Indians or Malays. Annual all-cause death rates increased with increasing abnormal scan severity in all three ethnicities. After adjustment, ethnicity was not associated with mortality. With Chinese as the reference group, adjusted hazard ratio and 95% CI for Malays and Indians were 1.29 (0.95-1.77) and 1.06 (0.74-1.50) in the minimally abnormal scan group, and 1.20 (0.75-1.91) and 0.82 (0.47-1.45) in the severely abnormal scan group, respectively. Mortality risk is related to the severity of scan abnormality and is independent of ethnicity in Asians. Our findings emphasize the continued utility of MPI in guiding risk stratification in Asia.

  10. The pediatric index of mortality 3 score to predict mortality in a pediatric intensive care unit in Palembang, South Sumatera, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Destiana Sera Puspita Sari

    2017-06-01

    Conclusion In Mohammad Hoesin Hospital, Palembang, South Sumatera, the PIM 3 can be used to predict mortality in PICU patients, but the score should be multiplied by a factor of 2.24. This recalibration is needed due to the presumed lower standard of care at this hospital compared to that of the originating PIM 3 institutions in developed countries.

  11. Prostate-specific antigen and long-term prediction of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørsted, David Dynnes; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Jensen, Gorm B

    2012-01-01

    It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population.......It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population....

  12. Serum Gamma-Glutamyl-Transferase Independently Predicts Outcome After Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: External Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guiu, Boris, E-mail: boris.guiu@chu-dijon.fr; Deschamps, Frederic [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Interventional Radiology (France); Boulin, Mathieu [University Hospital, INSERM U866 (France); Boige, Valerie; Malka, David; Ducreux, Michel [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Digestive Oncology (France); Hillon, Patrick [University Hospital, INSERM U866 (France); Baere, Thierry de [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Interventional Radiology (France)

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: An Asian study showed that gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) can predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to validate in a European population this biomarker as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC and to determine a threshold value for clinical use. Methods: In 88 consecutive patients treated by TACE for HCC, the optimal threshold for GGT serum level was determined by a ROC analysis. Endpoints were time-to-treatment failure (TTTF) and overall survival (OS). All multivariate models were internally validated using bootstrapping (90 replications). Results: Median follow-up lasted 373 days, and median overall survival was 748 days. The optimal threshold for GGT was 165 U/L (sensitivity: 89.3%; specificity: 56.7%; area under the ROC curve: 0.7515). Median TTTF was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (281 days vs. 850 days; P < 0.001). GGT {>=}165 U/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.06; P = 0.02), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 5.4; P = 0.002), and tumor size (HR = 1.12; P = 0.014) were independently associated with shorter TTTF. Median OS was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (508 days vs. not reached; P < 0.001). GGT {>=} 165 U/L (HR = 3.05; P = 0.029), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 12.95; P < 0.001), alfa-fetoprotein (HR = 2.9; P = 0.01), and tumor size (HR = 1.096; P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter OS. The results were confirmed by bootstrapping. Conclusions: Our results provide in a European population the external validation of GGT as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC. A serum level of GGT {>=} 165 U/L is independently associated with both shorter TTTF and OS.

  13. Serum Gamma-Glutamyl-Transferase Independently Predicts Outcome After Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: External Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guiu, Boris; Deschamps, Frédéric; Boulin, Mathieu; Boige, Valérie; Malka, David; Ducreux, Michel; Hillon, Patrick; Baère, Thierry de

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: An Asian study showed that gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) can predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to validate in a European population this biomarker as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC and to determine a threshold value for clinical use. Methods: In 88 consecutive patients treated by TACE for HCC, the optimal threshold for GGT serum level was determined by a ROC analysis. Endpoints were time-to-treatment failure (TTTF) and overall survival (OS). All multivariate models were internally validated using bootstrapping (90 replications). Results: Median follow-up lasted 373 days, and median overall survival was 748 days. The optimal threshold for GGT was 165 U/L (sensitivity: 89.3%; specificity: 56.7%; area under the ROC curve: 0.7515). Median TTTF was shorter when GGT was ≥165 U/L (281 days vs. 850 days; P < 0.001). GGT ≥165 U/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.06; P = 0.02), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 5.4; P = 0.002), and tumor size (HR = 1.12; P = 0.014) were independently associated with shorter TTTF. Median OS was shorter when GGT was ≥165 U/L (508 days vs. not reached; P < 0.001). GGT ≥ 165 U/L (HR = 3.05; P = 0.029), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 12.95; P < 0.001), alfa-fetoprotein (HR = 2.9; P = 0.01), and tumor size (HR = 1.096; P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter OS. The results were confirmed by bootstrapping. Conclusions: Our results provide in a European population the external validation of GGT as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC. A serum level of GGT ≥ 165 U/L is independently associated with both shorter TTTF and OS.

  14. Empathy and nonattachment independently predict peer nominations of prosocial behaviour of adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baljinder K Sahdra

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a plethora of research showing that empathy promotes prosocial behaviour among young people. We examined a relatively new construct in the mindfulness literature, nonattachment, defined as a flexible way of relating to one’s experiences without clinging to or suppressing them. We tested whether nonattachment could predict prosociality above and beyond empathy. Nonattachment implies high cognitive flexibility and sufficient mental resources to step out of excessive self-cherishing to be there for others in need. Multilevel Poisson models using a sample of 15-year olds (N=1831 showed that empathy and nonattachment independently predicted prosocial behaviours of helpfulness and kindness, as judged by same-sex and opposite-sex peers, except for when boys nominated girls. The effects of nonattachment remained substantial in more conservative models including self-esteem and peer nominations of liking.

  15. Empathy and nonattachment independently predict peer nominations of prosocial behavior of adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahdra, Baljinder K; Ciarrochi, Joseph; Parker, Philip D; Marshall, Sarah; Heaven, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    There is a plethora of research showing that empathy promotes prosocial behavior among young people. We examined a relatively new construct in the mindfulness literature, nonattachment, defined as a flexible way of relating to one's experiences without clinging to or suppressing them. We tested whether nonattachment could predict prosociality above and beyond empathy. Nonattachment implies high cognitive flexibility and sufficient mental resources to step out of excessive self-cherishing to be there for others in need. Multilevel Poisson models using a sample of 15-year olds (N = 1831) showed that empathy and nonattachment independently predicted prosocial behaviors of helpfulness and kindness, as judged by same-sex and opposite-sex peers, except for when boys nominated girls. The effects of nonattachment remained substantial in more conservative models including self-esteem and peer nominations of liking.

  16. General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

    2016-01-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

  17. Effect of wind turbine mortality on noctule bats in Sweden: predictions from a simple population model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rydell, Jens; Hedenstroem, Anders; Green, Martin

    2011-07-01

    Full text: The noctule bat Nyctalus noctula is apparently the species most seriously affected by wind turbine mortality in northern Europe. It occurs in south Sweden up to about 60oN, although the abundance is much higher in lowland agricultural areas than in forests. We used a recent estimate of 90 000 individuals as the population size in Sweden, and assumed a stable starting population not affected by mortality from wind turbines. In the absence of data from Sweden, we used demographic data and fatality rates at wind turbines (0.9 noctules/turbine/year) obtained in eastern Germany. Population development up to year 2020 was calculated, based on the current estimate of wind farm development in Sweden; ca. 1000 present and 2500 additional turbines within the area of noctule distribution. The results suggest that the additional mortality at wind turbines may affect the noctule bat in Sweden at the population level. However, the effect will probably be small, particularly in comparison with other anthropogenic sources. We are currently using the model to predict the effect on other bat species and birds. (Author)

  18. Flow-Mediated Dilatation and Asymmetric Dimethylarginine Do Not Predict Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Uzun

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA is associated with increased coronary artery disease risk through endothelial dysfunction in dialysis patients. We aimed to investigate the role of flow-mediated dilatation (FMD, a non-invasive indicator of endothelial function, and ADMA in mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. Methods: PD patients aged 18-80 years; with dialysis duration of at least three months were included. FMD measurement and ADMA levels were recorded. Outcome of the patients on the third year were analyzed with binary logistic analyses. Results: The mean age of the 55 patients was 53±15 years and the mean follow-up duration was 36 months. Mean FMD and ADMA levels were 10.6±6.4% and 81.8±48.0 mol/L, respectively. Eighteen patients died during follow-up. Age, presence of diabetes mellitus and ischemic heart disease, ultrafiltration amount and serum albumin level were related with mortality while gender, weekly Kt/V and ADMA levels were not. There was no significant relationship between ADMA level and FMD (p=0.873. FMD was negatively correlated with systolic and diastolic blood pressures (p=0.001, p<0.001, respectively. Hypertension was found to be the most important single factor determining FMD (p=0.037. Conclusion: Estimating endothelial function by FMD or measuring serum ADMA levels may not be useful for predicting mortality in PD patients.

  19. Cost and mortality impact of an algorithm-driven sepsis prediction system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Jacob; Hoffman, Jana; Barton, Christopher; Shimabukuro, David; Ries, Michael; Chettipally, Uli; Kerem, Yaniv; Jay, Melissa; Mataraso, Samson; Das, Ritankar

    2017-06-01

    To compute the financial and mortality impact of InSight, an algorithm-driven biomarker, which forecasts the onset of sepsis with minimal use of electronic health record data. This study compares InSight with existing sepsis screening tools and computes the differential life and cost savings associated with its use in the inpatient setting. To do so, mortality reduction is obtained from an increase in the number of sepsis cases correctly identified by InSight. Early sepsis detection by InSight is also associated with a reduction in length-of-stay, from which cost savings are directly computed. InSight identifies more true positive cases of severe sepsis, with fewer false alarms, than comparable methods. For an individual ICU with 50 beds, for example, it is determined that InSight annually saves 75 additional lives and reduces sepsis-related costs by $560,000. InSight performance results are derived from analysis of a single-center cohort. Mortality reduction results rely on a simplified use case, which fixes prediction times at 0, 1, and 2 h before sepsis onset, likely leading to under-estimates of lives saved. The corresponding cost reduction numbers are based on national averages for daily patient length-of-stay cost. InSight has the potential to reduce sepsis-related deaths and to lead to substantial cost savings for healthcare facilities.

  20. Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Then, Amy Y.; Hoenig, John M; Hall, Norman G.; Hewitt, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M, of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M, (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age (tmax), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M. We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a tmax-based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The tmax-based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on tmax and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly’s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K. It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the tmax-based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a tmax-based estimator (M=4.899tmax−0.916">M=4.899t−0.916maxM=4.899tmax−0.916, prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method (M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33">M=4.118K0.73L−0.33∞M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33 , prediction error

  1. Liver stiffness by transient elastography predicts liver-related complications and mortality in patients with chronic liver disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack X Q Pang

    Full Text Available Liver stiffness measurement (LSM by transient elastography (TE, FibroScan is a validated method for noninvasively staging liver fibrosis. Most hepatic complications occur in patients with advanced fibrosis. Our objective was to determine the ability of LSM by TE to predict hepatic complications and mortality in a large cohort of patients with chronic liver disease.In consecutive adults who underwent LSM by TE between July 2008 and June 2011, we used Cox regression to determine the independent association between liver stiffness and death or hepatic complications (decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation. The performance of LSM to predict complications was determined using the c-statistic.Among 2,052 patients (median age 51 years, 65% with hepatitis B or C, 87 patients (4.2% died or developed a hepatic complication during a median follow-up period of 15.6 months (interquartile range, 11.0-23.5 months. Patients with complications had higher median liver stiffness than those without complications (13.5 vs. 6.0 kPa; P<0.00005. The 2-year incidence rates of death or hepatic complications were 2.6%, 9%, 19%, and 34% in patients with liver stiffness <10, 10-19.9, 20-39.9, and ≥40 kPa, respectively (P<0.00005. After adjustment for potential confounders, liver stiffness by TE was an independent predictor of complications (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05 per kPa; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.06. The c-statistic of liver-stiffness for predicting complications was 0.80 (95% CI 0.75-0.85. A liver stiffness below 20 kPa effectively excluded complications (specificity 93%, negative predictive value 97%; however, the positive predictive value of higher results was sub-optimal (20%.Liver stiffness by TE accurately predicts the risk of death or hepatic complications in patients with chronic liver disease. TE may facilitate the estimation of prognosis and guide management of these patients.

  2. Mini Nutritional Assessment predicts gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gumieiro, David N; Rafacho, Bruna P M; Gonçalves, Andrea F; Tanni, Suzana E; Azevedo, Paula S; Sakane, Daniel T; Carneiro, Carlos A S; Gaspardo, David; Zornoff, Leonardo A M; Pereira, Gilberto J C; Paiva, Sergio A R; Minicucci, Marcos F

    2013-05-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002 and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Score (ASA) as predictors of gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. A total of eighty-eight consecutive patients over the age of 65 years with hip fracture admitted to an orthopaedic unit were prospectively evaluated. Within the first 72 h of admission, each patient's characteristics were recorded, and the MNA, the NRS 2002 and the ASA were performed. Gait status and mortality were evaluated 6 months after hip fracture. Of the total patients, two were excluded because of pathological fractures. The remaining eighty-six patients (aged 80·2 (sd 7·3) years) were studied. Among these patients 76·7 % were female, 69·8 % walked with or without support and 12·8 % died 6 months after the fracture. In a multivariate analysis, only the MNA was associated with gait status 6 months after hip fracture (OR 0·773, 95 % CI 0·663, 0·901; P= 0·001). In the Cox regression model, only the MNA was associated with mortality 6 months after hip fracture (hazard ratio 0·869, 95 % CI 0·757, 0·998; P= 0·04). In conclusion, the MNA best predicts gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. These results suggest that the MNA should be included in the clinical stratification of patients with hip fracture to identify and treat malnutrition in order to improve the outcomes.

  3. Void fraction prediction in two-phase flows independent of the liquid phase density changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazemi, E.; Feghhi, S.A.H.; Roshani, G.H.

    2014-01-01

    Gamma-ray densitometry is a frequently used non-invasive method to determine void fraction in two-phase gas liquid pipe flows. Performance of flow meters using gamma-ray attenuation depends strongly on the fluid properties. Variations of the fluid properties such as density in situations where temperature and pressure fluctuate would cause significant errors in determination of the void fraction in two-phase flows. A conventional solution overcoming such an obstacle is periodical recalibration which is a difficult task. This paper presents a method based on dual modality densitometry using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which offers the advantage of measuring the void fraction independent of the liquid phase changes. An experimental setup was implemented to generate the required input data for training the network. ANNs were trained on the registered counts of the transmission and scattering detectors in different liquid phase densities and void fractions. Void fractions were predicted by ANNs with mean relative error of less than 0.45% in density variations range of 0.735 up to 0.98 gcm −3 . Applying this method would improve the performance of two-phase flow meters and eliminates the necessity of periodical recalibration. - Highlights: • Void fraction was predicted independent of density changes. • Recorded counts of detectors/void fraction were used as inputs/output of ANN. • ANN eliminated necessity of recalibration in changeable density of two-phase flows

  4. Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelder Johannes C

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have studied the impact of readmissions by linking admissions of the same patient, and as a result were able to compare hospital mortality among frequently, as opposed to, non-frequently readmitted patients. We also formulated a method to adjust for readmission for the calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios (HSMRs. Methods We conducted a longitudinal retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data of six large non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands with casemix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 65 to 114 and a combined value of 93 over a five-year period. Participants concerned 240662 patients admitted 418566 times in total during the years 2003 - 2007. Predicted deaths by the HSMR model 2008 over a five-year period were compared with observed deaths. Results Numbers of readmissions per patient differ substantially between the six hospitals, up to a factor of 2. A large interaction was found between numbers of admissions per patient and HSMR-predicted risks. Observed deaths for frequently admitted patients were significantly lower than HSMR-predicted deaths, which could be explained by uncorrected factors surrounding readmissions. Conclusions Patients admitted more frequently show lower risks of dying on average per admission. This decline in risk is only partly detected by the current HSMR. Comparing frequently admitted patients to non-frequently admitted patients commits the constant risk fallacy and potentially lowers HSMRs of hospitals treating many frequently admitted patients and increases HSMRs of hospitals treating many non-frequently admitted patients. This misleading effect can

  5. Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have studied the impact of readmissions by linking admissions of the same patient, and as a result were able to compare hospital mortality among frequently, as opposed to, non-frequently readmitted patients. We also formulated a method to adjust for readmission for the calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios (HSMRs). Methods We conducted a longitudinal retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data of six large non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands with casemix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 65 to 114 and a combined value of 93 over a five-year period. Participants concerned 240662 patients admitted 418566 times in total during the years 2003 - 2007. Predicted deaths by the HSMR model 2008 over a five-year period were compared with observed deaths. Results Numbers of readmissions per patient differ substantially between the six hospitals, up to a factor of 2. A large interaction was found between numbers of admissions per patient and HSMR-predicted risks. Observed deaths for frequently admitted patients were significantly lower than HSMR-predicted deaths, which could be explained by uncorrected factors surrounding readmissions. Conclusions Patients admitted more frequently show lower risks of dying on average per admission. This decline in risk is only partly detected by the current HSMR. Comparing frequently admitted patients to non-frequently admitted patients commits the constant risk fallacy and potentially lowers HSMRs of hospitals treating many frequently admitted patients and increases HSMRs of hospitals treating many non-frequently admitted patients. This misleading effect can only be demonstrated by an

  6. Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  7. explICU: A web-based visualization and predictive modeling toolkit for mortality in intensive care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Robert; Kumar, Vikas; Fitch, Natalie; Jagadish, Jitesh; Lifan Zhang; Dunn, William; Duen Horng Chau

    2015-01-01

    Preventing mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) has been a top priority in American hospitals. Predictive modeling has been shown to be effective in prediction of mortality based upon data from patients' past medical histories from electronic health records (EHRs). Furthermore, visualization of timeline events is imperative in the ICU setting in order to quickly identify trends in patient histories that may lead to mortality. With the increasing adoption of EHRs, a wealth of medical data is becoming increasingly available for secondary uses such as data exploration and predictive modeling. While data exploration and predictive modeling are useful for finding risk factors in ICU patients, the process is time consuming and requires a high level of computer programming ability. We propose explICU, a web service that hosts EHR data, displays timelines of patient events based upon user-specified preferences, performs predictive modeling in the back end, and displays results to the user via intuitive, interactive visualizations.

  8. A lower baseline glomerular filtration rate predicts high mortality and newly cerebrovascular accidents in acute ischemic stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Kai; Huang, Xiaoqin; Zhang, Qian; Yu, Zhipeng; Ding, Jianping; Song, Haiqing

    2017-02-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is gradually recognized as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and cardio-/cerebrovascular disease. This study aimed to examine the association of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and clinical outcomes at 3 months after the onset of ischemic stroke in a hospitalized Chinese population.Totally, 972 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled into this study. Modified of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equations were used to calculate eGFR and define CKD. The site and degree of the stenosis were examined. Patients were followed-up for 3 months. Endpoint events included all-cause death and newly ischemic events. The multivariate logistic model was used to determine the association between renal dysfunction and patients' outcomes.Of all patients, 130 patients (13.4%) had reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73 m), and 556 patients had a normal eGFR (≥90 mL/min/1.73 m). A total of 694 patients suffered from cerebral artery stenosis, in which 293 patients only had intracranial artery stenosis (ICAS), 110 only with extracranial carotid atherosclerotic stenosis (ECAS), and 301 with both ICAS and ECAS. The patients with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73m had a higher proportion of death and newly ischemic events compared with those with a relatively normal eGFR. Multivariate analysis revealed that a baseline eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m increased the risk of mortality by 3.089-fold and newly ischemic events by 4.067-fold. In further analysis, a reduced eGFR was associated with increased rates of mortality and newly events both in ICAS patients and ECAS patients. However, only an increased risk of newly events was found as the degree of renal function deteriorated in ICAS patients (odds ratio = 8.169, 95% confidence interval = 2.445-14.127).A low baseline eGFR predicted a high mortality and newly ischemic events at 3 months in ischemic stroke patients. A low baseline eGFR was also a strong independent predictor for newly

  9. The basic mobility status upon acute hospital discharge is an independent risk factor for mortality up to 5 years after hip fracture surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten T.; Kehlet, Henrik

    2018-01-01

    Background and purpose — Mortality rates following hip fracture (HF) surgery are high. We evaluated the influence of the basic mobility status on acute hospital discharge to 1- and 5-year mortality rates after HF. Patients and methods — 444 patients with HF ≥60 years (mean age 81 years, 77% women......) being pre-fracture ambulatory and admitted from their own homes, were consecutively included in an in-hospital enhanced recovery program and followed for 5 years. The Cumulated Ambulation Score (CAS, 0–6 points, 6 points equals independence) was used to evaluate the basic mobility status on hospital...... discharge. Results — 102 patients with a CAS stayed in the acute ward a median of 22 (15–32) days post-surgery as compared with a median of 12 (8–16) days for those 342 patients who achieved a CAS =6. Overall 1-year mortality was 16%; in those with CAS

  10. Personalized mortality prediction driven by electronic medical data and a patient similarity metric.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joon Lee

    Full Text Available Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1 to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2 to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made.We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM to an intensive care unit (ICU database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care.The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR systems, our novel medical data analytics

  11. Personalized Mortality Prediction Driven by Electronic Medical Data and a Patient Similarity Metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M.; Dubin, Joel A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. Methods and Findings We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. Conclusions The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our

  12. Personalized mortality prediction driven by electronic medical data and a patient similarity metric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-01-01

    Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our novel medical data analytics contributes to

  13. CD147 expression predicts biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy independent of histologic and pathologic features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, Tyler M; Ewald, Jonathan A; Huang, Wei; Ricke, William A

    2015-07-25

    CD147 is an MMP-inducing protein often implicated in cancer progression. The purpose of this study was to investigate the expression of CD147 in prostate cancer (PCa) progression and the prognostic ability of CD147 in predicting biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy. Plasma membrane-localized CD147 protein expression was quantified in patient samples using immunohistochemistry and multispectral imaging, and expression was compared to clinico-pathological features (pathologic stage, Gleason score, tumor volume, preoperative PSA, lymph node status, surgical margins, biochemical recurrence status). CD147 specificity and expression were confirmed with immunoblotting of prostate cell lines, and CD147 mRNA expression was evaluated in public expression microarray datasets of patient prostate tumors. Expression of CD147 protein was significantly decreased in localized tumors (pT2; p = 0.02) and aggressive PCa (≥pT3; p = 0.004), and metastases (p = 0.001) compared to benign prostatic tissue. Decreased CD147 was associated with advanced pathologic stage (p = 0.009) and high Gleason score (p = 0.02), and low CD147 expression predicted biochemical recurrence (HR 0.55; 95 % CI 0.31-0.97; p = 0.04) independent of clinico-pathologic features. Immunoblot bands were detected at 44 kDa and 66 kDa, representing non-glycosylated and glycosylated forms of CD147 protein, and CD147 expression was lower in tumorigenic T10 cells than non-tumorigenic BPH-1 cells (p = 0.02). Decreased CD147 mRNA expression was associated with increased Gleason score and pathologic stage in patient tumors but is not associated with recurrence status. Membrane-associated CD147 expression is significantly decreased in PCa compared to non-malignant prostate tissue and is associated with tumor progression, and low CD147 expression predicts biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy independent of pathologic stage, Gleason score, lymph node status, surgical margins, and tumor volume in multivariable

  14. Pre-operative stroke and neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in infective endocarditis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diab, Mahmoud; Guenther, Albrecht; Sponholz, Christoph; Lehmann, Thomas; Faerber, Gloria; Matz, Anna; Franz, Marcus; Witte, Otto W; Pletz, Mathias W; Doenst, Torsten

    2016-10-01

    Infective endocarditis (IE) is still associated with high morbidity and mortality. The impact of pre-operative stroke on mortality and long-term survival is controversial. In addition, data on the severity of neurological disability due to pre-operative stroke are scarce. We analysed the impact of pre-operative stroke and the severity of its related neurological disability on short- and long-term outcome. We retrospectively reviewed our data from patients operated for left-sided IE between 01/2007 and 04/2013. We performed univariate (Chi-Square and independent samples t test) and multivariate analyses. Among 308 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac surgery for left-sided IE, pre-operative stroke was present in 87 (28.2 %) patients. Patients with pre-operative stroke had a higher pre-operative risk profile than patient without it: higher Charlson comorbidity index (8.1 ± 2.6 vs. 6.6 ± 3.3) and higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus infection (43 vs. 17 %) and septic shock (37 vs. 19 %). In-hospital mortality was equal but 5-year survival was significantly worse with pre-operative stroke (33.1 % vs. 45 %, p = 0.006). 5-year survival was worst in patients with severe neurological disability compared to mild disability (19.0 vs. 0.58 %, p = 0.002). However, neither pre-operative stroke nor the degree of neurological disability appeared as an independent risk factor for short or long-term mortality by multivariate analysis. Pre-operative stroke and the severity of neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. It appears that patients with pre-operative stroke present with a generally higher risk profile. This information may substantially affect decision-making.

  15. Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR) Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papas, Klearchos K; Bellin, Melena D; Sutherland, David E R; Suszynski, Thomas M; Kitzmann, Jennifer P; Avgoustiniatos, Efstathios S; Gruessner, Angelika C; Mueller, Kathryn R; Beilman, Gregory J; Balamurugan, Appakalai N; Loganathan, Gopalakrishnan; Colton, Clark K; Koulmanda, Maria; Weir, Gordon C; Wilhelm, Josh J; Qian, Dajun; Niland, Joyce C; Hering, Bernhard J

    2015-01-01

    Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR) in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT) insulin independence (II). IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity. Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI), OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA), islet equivalent (IE) and OCR (viable IE) normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose), and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI) were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35). Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001). These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6-12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC) = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose). FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49) and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58) did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72). Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations.

  16. Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klearchos K Papas

    Full Text Available Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT insulin independence (II. IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity.Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI, OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA, islet equivalent (IE and OCR (viable IE normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose, and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35. Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis.Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001. These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6-12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose. FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49 and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58 did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72.Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations.

  17. Polygenic scores predict alcohol problems in an independent sample and show moderation by the environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvatore, Jessica E; Aliev, Fazil; Edwards, Alexis C; Evans, David M; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew; Lewis, Glyn; Kendler, Kenneth S; Loukola, Anu; Korhonen, Tellervo; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J; Kaprio, Jaakko; Dick, Danielle M

    2014-04-10

    Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems-derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female)-predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14) in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female). We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance) moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07-0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01). Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b), p-values (p), and percent of variance (R2) accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively). Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes.

  18. Polygenic Scores Predict Alcohol Problems in an Independent Sample and Show Moderation by the Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Salvatore

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems—derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female—predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14 in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female. We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07–0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01. Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b, p-values (p, and percent of variance (R2 accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively. Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes.

  19. Evaluation of circulating proteins and hemodynamics towards predicting mortality in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brandie D Wagner

    Full Text Available Although many predictors have been evaluated, a set of strong independent prognostic mortality indicators has not been established in children with pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH. The aim of this study was to identify a combination of clinical and molecular predictors of survival in PAH.This single-center, retrospective cohort study was performed from children with PAH between 2001 and 2008 at Children's Hospital Colorado. Blood samples from 83 patients (median age of 8.3 years-old were obtained. We retrospectively analyzed 46 variables, which included 27 circulating proteins, 7 demographic variables and 12 hemodynamic and echocardiographic variables for establishing the best predictors of mortality. A data mining approach was utilized to evaluate predictor variables and to uncover complex data structures while performing variable selection in high dimensional problems.Thirteen children (16% died during follow-up (median; 3.1 years and survival rates from time of sample collection at 1 year, 3 years and 5 years were 95%, 85% and 79%, respectively. A subset of potentially informative predictors were identified, the top four are listed here in order of importance: Tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases-1 (TIMP-1, apolipoprotein-AI, RV/LV diastolic dimension ratio and age at diagnosis. In univariate analysis, TIMP-1 and apolipoprotein-AI had significant association with survival time (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.25 [1.03, 1.51] and 0.70 [0.54-0.90], respectively. Patients grouped by TIMP-1 and apolipoprotein-AI values had significantly different survival risks (p<0.01.Important predictors of mortality were identified from a large number of circulating proteins and clinical markers in this cohort. If confirmed in other populations, measurement of a subset of these predictors could aid in management of pediatric PAH by identifying patients at risk for death. These findings also further support a role for the clinical

  20. C-reactive protein and homocysteine predict long-term mortality in young ischemic stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naess, Halvor; Nyland, Harald; Idicula, Titto; Waje-Andreassen, Ulrike

    2013-11-01

    We investigated the relationship between C-reactive protein (CRP) and homocysteine on follow-up and subsequent mortality in young ischemic stroke patients in a population-based study. Young ischemic stroke patients were followed-up on average 6 years after the index stroke. CRP and homocysteine levels were measured and risk factors were recorded, including myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, smoking, alcoholism, and cancer. Stroke outcome was measured using the modified Rankin Scale score. Subsequent survival was obtained by examining the official population registry. Cox regression analyses were performed. In total, 198 patients were included in this study (82 [41%] women and 116 [59%] men). The mean age on follow-up was 47.8 years. In total, 36 (18.2%) patients died during the subsequent mean follow-up of 12.4 years. Cox regression analysis revealed that mortality was associated with CRP (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05; P=.001) and homocysteine levels (HR 1.04; P=.02) in patients without dissection. Kaplan-Meier curves grouped by dichotomized CRP (CRP≤1 v >1 mg/L) showed increasing separation between the survival curves, and likewise for dichotomized homocysteine (≤9 v >9 μg/L). There is an independent association between CRP and homocysteine levels obtained several years after ischemic stroke in young adults and subsequent mortality, even when adjusting for traditional risk factors. This association seems to continue for at least 12 years after the measurements. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The optimal definition of contrast-induced acute kidney injury for prediction of inpatient mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsh, Jessica; Seth, Milan; Briguori, Carlo; Grossman, Paul; Solomon, Richard; Gurm, Hitinder S

    2016-05-01

    It is unknown which definition of contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) in the setting of percutaneous coronary interventions is best associated with inpatient mortality and whether this association is stable across patients with various preprocedural serum creatinine (SCr) values. We applied logistic regression models to multiple CI-AKI definitions used by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guidelines and previously published studies to examine the impact of preprocedural SCr on a candidate definition's correlation with the adverse outcome of inpatient mortality. We used likelihood ratio tests to examine candidate definitions and identify those where association with inpatient mortality remained constant regardless of preprocedural SCr. These definitions were assessed for specificity, sensitivity, and positive and negative predictive values to identify an optimal definition. Our study cohort included 119,554 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention in Michigan between 2010 and 2014. Most commonly used definitions were not associated with inpatient mortality in a constant fashion across various preprocedural SCr values. Of the 266 candidate definitions examined, 16 definition's association with inpatient mortality was not significantly altered by preprocedural SCr. Contrast-induced acute kidney injury defined as an absolute increase of SCr ≥0.3 mg/dL and a relative SCr increase ≥50% was selected as the optimal candidate using Perkins and Shisterman decision theoretic optimality criteria and was highly predictive of and specific for inpatient mortality. We identified the optimal definition for CI-AKI to be an absolute increase in SCr ≥0.3 mg/dL and a relative SCr increase ≥50%. Further work is needed to validate this definition in independent studies and to establish its utility for clinical trials and quality improvement efforts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Youth, unemployment, and male gender predict mortality in AIDS patients started on HAART in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSilva, Malini B; Merry, Stephen P; Fischer, Philip R; Rohrer, James E; Isichei, Christian O; Cha, Stephen S

    2009-01-01

    This retrospective study identifies risk factors for mortality in a cohort of HIV-positive adult patients treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Jos, Nigeria. We analyzed clinical data from a cohort of 1552 patients enrolled in a HIV/acquired immune deficiency syndrome treatment program and started on HAART between December 2004 and 30 April 2006. Death was our study endpoint. Patients were followed in the study until death, being lost to follow-up, or the end of data collection, 1 December 2006. Baseline patient characteristics were compared using Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test for continuous variables and Pearson Chi-Square test for categorical variables to determine if certain demographic factors were associated with more rapid progression to death. The Cox proportional hazard multivariate model analysis was used to find risk factors. As of 1 December 2006, a total of 104 cases progressed to death. In addition to the expected association of CD4 count less than 50 at initiation of therapy and active tuberculosis with mortality, the patient characteristics independently associated with a more rapid progression to death after initiation of HAART were male gender, age less than 30 years old, and unemployment or unknown occupation status. Future research is needed to identify the confounding variables that may be amenable to targeted interventions aimed at ameliorating these health disparities.

  3. Complement Factor 3 Could Be an Independent Risk Factor for Mortality in Patients with HBV Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geng-lin Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The complement is thought to be involved in the pathogenesis of multiple liver disorders. However, its role in patients with HBV related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF remains unclear. Serum levels of the third and fourth complement components (C3, C4 and complement function (CH50 were examined in this prospective, observational study. Associations between their expression and disease activity were analyzed. Survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors of clinical outcome were determined by Cox regression analysis. C3, C4, and CH50 levels were significantly lower in HBV-ACLF patients compared to controls. C3, C4, and CH50 levels were negatively correlated with Tbil levels but positively associated with PTA levels. C3 levels were negatively associated with MELD-Na. C3 levels were significantly lower in HBV-ACLF patients who died compared to patients who survived. In a median hospital stay of 39 days, mortality occurred in 41 patients with a progressive increase based on C3 grade (P=0.008. The actuarial probability of developing mortality was significantly higher in patients with low C3 grade compared to those with high C3 grade (P<0.001. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that C3 levels were an independent predictor of mortality. Complement played a pathogenic role in HBV-ACLF patients and C3 was an independent predictor of mortality.

  4. Hyperphosphatemia Is an Independent Risk Factor for Mortality in Critically Ill Patients: Results from a Cross-Sectional Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik G Haider

    Full Text Available Phosphate imbalances or disorders have a high risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease. It is unknown if this finding extends to mortality in patients presenting at an emergency room with or without normal kidney function.This cross sectional analysis included all emergency room patients between 2010 and 2011 at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland. A multivariable cox regression model was applied to assess the association between phosphate levels and in-hospital mortality up to 28 days.22,239 subjects were screened for the study. Plasma phosphate concentrations were measured in 2,390 patients on hospital admission and were included in the analysis. 3.5% of the 480 patients with hypophosphatemia and 10.7% of the 215 patients with hyperphosphatemia died. In univariate analysis, phosphate levels were associated with mortality, age, diuretic therapy and kidney function (all p0.05.Hyperphosphatemia is associated with 28-day in-hospital mortality in an unselected cohort of patients presenting in an emergency room.

  5. Iron Deficiency and Anemia Predict Mortality in Patients with Tuberculosis123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isanaka, Sheila; Mugusi, Ferdinand; Urassa, Willy; Willett, Walter C.; Bosch, Ronald J.; Villamor, Eduardo; Spiegelman, Donna; Duggan, Christopher; Fawzi, Wafaie W.

    2012-01-01

    Many studies have documented a high prevalence of anemia among tuberculosis (TB) patients and anemia at TB diagnosis has been associated with an increased risk of death. However, little is known about the factors contributing to the development of TB-associated anemia and their importance in TB disease progression. Data from a randomized clinical trial of micronutrient supplementation in patients with pulmonary TB in Tanzania were analyzed. Repeated measures of anemia with iron deficiency, anemia without iron deficiency, and iron deficiency without anemia were assessed as risk factors for treatment failure, TB recurrence, and mortality. The prevalence of anemia (hemoglobin iron deficiency (mean corpuscular volume , 80 fL). We found no evidence of an association between anemia (with or without iron deficiency) or iron deficiency without anemia at baseline and the risk of treatment failure at 1 mo after initiation. Anemia without iron deficiency was associated with an independent, 4-fold increased risk of TB recurrence [adjusted RR = 4.10 (95% CI = 1.88, 8.91); P Iron deficiency and anemia (with and without iron deficiency) were associated with a 2- to nearly 3-fold independent increase in the risk of death [adjusted RR for iron deficiency without anemia = 2.89 (95% CI = 1.53, 5.47); P = 0.001; anemia without iron deficiency = 2.72 (95% CI = 1.50, 4.93); P = 0.001; iron deficiency anemia = 2.13 (95% CI = 1.10, 4.11); P = 0.02]. Efforts to identify and address the conditions contributing to TB-associated anemia, including iron deficiency, could play an important role in reducing morbidity and mortality in areas heavily affected by TB. PMID:22190024

  6. Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimmel Marek

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

  7. Validating the Malheur model for predicting ponderosa pine post-fire mortality using 24 fires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind

    2012-01-01

    Fires, whether intentionally or accidentally set, commonly occur in western interior forests of the US. Following fire, managers need the ability to predict mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. Previously, a two-factor model using crown scorch and bole scorch proportions was developed with data from 3415 trees for predicting the...

  8. Short-term Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the Czech Republic Based on Data from 1968-2014.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Reissigová, Jindra; Zvolský, M.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 1 (2018), s. 10-15 ISSN 1210-7778 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : mortality * coronary heart diseases * short-term prediction * long-term prediction * national health registries Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Applied mathematics Impact factor: 0.682, year: 2016 https://cejph.szu.cz/artkey/cjp-201801-0002_short-term-prediction-of-coronary- heart -disease-mortality-in-the-czech-republic-based-on-data-from-1968-2014.php

  9. Polyunsaturated fatty acids intake, omega-6/omega-3 ratio and mortality: Findings from two independent nationwide cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Pan; Wang, Wenqiao; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Yu; Jiao, Jingjing

    2018-03-03

    Polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) have been reported to exert pleiotropic protective effects against various chronic diseases. However, epidemiologic evidence linking specific PUFA intake to mortality has been limited and contradictory. We aim to assess the associations between specific dietary PUFA and mortality among adults in China and America, respectively. Participants from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS, n = 14,117) and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey [NHANES (n = 36,032)] were prospectively followed up through the year 2011. Cox regression models were used to investigate hypothesized associations. A total of 1007 and 4826 deaths accrued over a median of 14 and 9.1 years of follow-up in CHNS and NHANES, respectively. Dietary marine omega-3 PUFA was robustly associated with a reduced all-cause mortality [Hazard ratio (HR) comparing extreme categories: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.61-0.89; P omega-6/omega-3 ratio of 6-10 was associated with a lower risk of death in CHNS. Intakes of different specific PUFA show distinct associations with mortality and these relationships also vary between Chinese and US populations. These findings suggest maintaining an omega-6/omega-3 balance diet for overall health promotion outcomes (NCT03155659). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  10. Reduced positive affect (anhedonia) is independently associated with 7-year mortality in patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damen, Nikki L; Pelle, Aline J; Boersma, Eric

    2013-01-01

    Negative mood states (e.g., anxiety and depression) have been associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in coronary artery disease (CAD), but little is known about the impact of positive emotions on these health outcomes. We examined whether anhedonia (i.e., reduced positive...

  11. Sociosexual attitudes and dyadic sexual desire independently predict women's preferences for male vocal masculinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Jillian J M; Jones, Benedict C; Fraccaro, Paul J; Tigue, Cara C; Pisanski, Katarzyna; Feinberg, David R

    2014-10-01

    Research suggests that the desire to behave sexually with a partner (dyadic sexual desire) may reflect desire for intimacy whereas solitary sexual desire may reflect pleasure seeking motivations more generally. Because direct reproductive success can only be increased with a sexual partner, we tested whether dyadic sexual desire was a better predictor of women's preferences for lower pitched men's voices (a marker of relatively high reproductive success) than was solitary sexual desire. In Study 1, women (N = 95) with higher dyadic sexual desire scores on the Sexual Desire Inventory-2 preferred masculinized male voices more than did women with lower dyadic sexual desire scores. We did not find a significant relationship between women's vocal masculinity preferences and their solitary sexual desire scores. In Study 2, we tested whether the relationship between voice preferences and dyadic sexual desire scores was related to differences in sociosexual orientation. Women (N = 80) with more positive attitudes towards uncommitted sex had stronger vocal masculinity preferences regardless of whether men's attractiveness was judged for short-term or long-term relationships. Independent of the effect of sociosexual attitudes, dyadic sexual desire positively predicted women's masculinity preferences when assessing men's attractiveness for short-term but not long-term relationships. These effects were independent of women's own relationship status and hormonal contraceptive use. Our results provide further evidence that women's mate preferences may independently reflect individual differences in both sexual desire and openness to short-term relationships, potentially with the ultimate function of maximizing the fitness benefits of women's mate choices.

  12. Systemic inflammation predicts all-cause mortality: a glasgow inflammation outcome study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Proctor

    Full Text Available Markers of the systemic inflammatory response, including C-reactive protein and albumin (combined to form the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, as well as neutrophil, lymphocyte and platelet counts have been shown to be prognostic of survival in patients with cancer. The aim of the present study was to examine the prognostic relationship between these markers of the systemic inflammatory response and all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality in a large incidentally sampled cohort.Patients (n = 160 481 who had an incidental blood sample taken between 2000 and 2008 were studied for the prognostic value of C-reactive protein (>10mg/l, albumin (>35mg/l, neutrophil (>7.5×109/l lymphocyte and platelet counts. Also, patients (n = 52 091 sampled following the introduction of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (>3mg/l measurements were studied. A combination of these markers, to make cumulative inflammation-based scores, were investigated.In all patients (n = 160 481 C-reactive protein (>10mg/l (HR 2.71, p35mg/l (HR 3.68, p3mg/l (n = 52 091. A combination of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (>3mg/l, albumin and neutrophil count predicted all-cause (HR 7.37, p<0.001, AUC 0.723, cancer (HR 9.32, p<0.001, AUC 0.731, cardiovascular (HR 4.03, p<0.001, AUC 0.650 and cerebrovascular (HR 3.10, p<0.001, AUC 0.623 mortality.The results of the present study showed that an inflammation-based prognostic score, combining high sensitivity C-reactive protein, albumin and neutrophil count is prognostic of all-cause mortality.

  13. The Severity of Fatty Liver Disease Relating to Metabolic Abnormalities Independently Predicts Coronary Calcification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ying-Hsiang; Wu, Yih-Jer; Liu, Chuan-Chuan; Hou, Charles Jia-Yin; Yeh, Hung-I.; Tsai, Cheng-Ho; Shih, Shou-Chuan; Hung, Chung-Lieh

    2011-01-01

    Background. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the metabolic disorders presented in liver. The relationship between severity of NAFLD and coronary atherosclerotic burden remains largely unknown. Methods and Materials. We analyzed subjects undergoing coronary calcium score evaluation by computed tomography (MDCT) and fatty liver assessment using abdominal ultrasonography. Framingham risk score (FRS) and metabolic risk score (MRS) were obtained in all subjects. A graded, semiquantitative score was established to quantify the severity of NAFLD. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to depict the association between NAFLD and calcium score. Results. Of all, 342 participants (female: 22.5%, mean age: 48.7 ± 7.0 years) met the sufficient information rendering detailed analysis. The severity of NAFLD was positively associated with MRS (X 2 = 6.12, trend P < 0.001) and FRS (X 2 = 5.88, trend P < 0.001). After multivariable adjustment for clinical variables and life styles, the existence of moderate to severe NAFLD was independently associated with abnormal calcium score (P < 0.05). Conclusion. The severity of NAFLD correlated well with metabolic abnormality and was independently predict coronary calcification beyond clinical factors. Our data suggests that NAFLD based on ultrasonogram could positively reflect the burden of coronary calcification

  14. Circulating Biologically Active Adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) Predicts Hemodynamic Support Requirement and Mortality During Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caironi, Pietro; Latini, Roberto; Struck, Joachim; Hartmann, Oliver; Bergmann, Andreas; Maggio, Giuseppe; Cavana, Marco; Tognoni, Gianni; Pesenti, Antonio; Gattinoni, Luciano; Masson, Serge

    2017-08-01

    The biological role of adrenomedullin (ADM), a hormone involved in hemodynamic homeostasis, is controversial in sepsis because administration of either the peptide or an antibody against it may be beneficial. Plasma biologically active ADM (bio-ADM) was assessed on days 1, 2, and 7 after randomization of 956 patients with sepsis or septic shock to albumin or crystalloids for fluid resuscitation in the multicenter Albumin Italian Outcome Sepsis trial. We tested the association of bio-ADM and its time-dependent variation with fluid therapy, vasopressor administration, organ failures, and mortality. Plasma bio-ADM on day 1 (median [Q1-Q3], 110 [59-198] pg/mL) was higher in patients with septic shock, associated with 90-day mortality, multiple organ failures and the average extent of hemodynamic support therapy (fluids and vasopressors), and serum lactate time course over the first week. Moreover, it predicted incident cardiovascular dysfunction in patients without shock at enrollment (OR [95% CI], 1.9 [1.4-2.5]; P sepsis, the circulating, biologically active form of ADM may help individualizing hemodynamic support therapy, while avoiding harmful effects. Its possible pathophysiologic role makes bio-ADM a potential candidate for future targeted therapies. ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00707122. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Missing Value Imputation Improves Mortality Risk Prediction Following Cardiac Surgery: An Investigation of an Australian Patient Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Md Nazmul; Reid, Christopher M; Tran, Lavinia; Cochrane, Andrew; Billah, Baki

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of missing values on the prediction performance of the model predicting 30-day mortality following cardiac surgery as an example. Information from 83,309 eligible patients, who underwent cardiac surgery, recorded in the Australia and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) database registry between 2001 and 2014, was used. An existing 30-day mortality risk prediction model developed from ANZSCTS database was re-estimated using the complete cases (CC) analysis and using multiple imputation (MI) analysis. Agreement between the risks generated by the CC and MI analysis approaches was assessed by the Bland-Altman method. Performances of the two models were compared. One or more missing predictor variables were present in 15.8% of the patients in the dataset. The Bland-Altman plot demonstrated significant disagreement between the risk scores (prisk of mortality. Compared to CC analysis, MI analysis resulted in an average of 8.5% decrease in standard error, a measure of uncertainty. The MI model provided better prediction of mortality risk (observed: 2.69%; MI: 2.63% versus CC: 2.37%, Pvalues improved the 30-day mortality risk prediction following cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2016 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. The prediction of in-hospital mortality by mid-upper arm circumference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Opio, Martin Otyek; Namujwiga, Teopista; Nakitende, Imaculate

    2018-01-01

    There are few reports of the association of nutritional status with in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients in sub-Saharan Africa. This is a prospective observational study comparing the predictive value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of 899 acutely ill medical patients...... patients in a resource-poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa....... admitted to a resource-poor sub-Saharan hospital with mental alertness, mobility and vital signs. Mid-upper arm circumference ranged from 15 cm to 42 cm, and 12 (24%) of the 50 patients with a MUAC less than 20 cm died (OR 4.84, 95% CI 2.23-10.37). Of the 237 patients with a MUAC more than 28 cm only six...

  17. Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Arrais Rocha

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: 30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes. Objective: This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. Methods: Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD, ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping. Conclusion: We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

  18. Marital status independently predicts testis cancer survival--an analysis of the SEER database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abern, Michael R; Dude, Annie M; Coogan, Christopher L

    2012-01-01

    Previous reports have shown that married men with malignancies have improved 10-year survival over unmarried men. We sought to investigate the effect of marital status on 10-year survival in a U.S. population-based cohort of men with testis cancer. We examined 30,789 cases of testis cancer reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 17) database between 1973 and 2005. All staging were converted to the 1997 AJCC TNM system. Patients less than 18 years of age at time of diagnosis were excluded. A subgroup analysis of patients with stages I or II non-seminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT) was performed. Univariate analysis using t-tests and χ(2) tests compared characteristics of patients separated by marital status. Multivariate analysis was performed using a Cox proportional hazard model to generate Kaplan-Meier survival curves, with all-cause and cancer-specific mortality as the primary endpoints. 20,245 cases met the inclusion criteria. Married men were more likely to be older (38.9 vs. 31.4 years), Caucasian (94.4% vs. 92.1%), stage I (73.1% vs. 61.4%), and have seminoma as the tumor histology (57.3% vs. 43.4%). On multivariate analysis, married status (HR 0.58, P married status (HR 0.60, P married and unmarried men (44.8% vs. 43.4%, P = 0.33). Marital status is an independent predictor of improved overall and cancer-specific survival in men with testis cancer. In men with stages I or II NSGCT, RPLND is an additional predictor of improved overall survival. Marital status does not appear to influence whether men undergo RPLND. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Use of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for evaluating severity and predicting mortality in patients with sepsis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenzaka T

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Tsuneaki Kenzaka,1 Masanobu Okayama,2 Shigehiro Kuroki,1 Miho Fukui,3 Shinsuke Yahata,3 Hiroki Hayashi,3 Akihito Kitao,3 Eiji Kajii,2 Masayoshi Hashimoto41Division of General Medicine, 2Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke; 3Department of General Medicine, Toyooka Public Hospital, Toyooka; 4Department of Family and Community Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, JapanBackground: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical usefulness of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for assessing severity of sepsis and early determination of mortality in affected patients.Methods: This was a prospective, observational study including 206 septic patients enrolled between June 2008 and August 2009. Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II scores were measured, along with semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations. Patients were divided into three groups based on their semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations (group A, <2 ng/mL; group B ≥ 2 ng/mL < 10 ng/mL; group C ≥ 10 ng/mL.Results: A significant difference in DIC, SOFA, and APACHE II scores was found between group A and group C and between group B and group C (P < 0.01. Patients with severe sepsis and septic shock had significantly higher procalcitonin concentrations than did patients with less severe disease. The rate of patients with septic shock with high procalcitonin concentrations showed an upward trend. There was a significant (P < 0.01 difference between the three groups with regard to numbers of patients and rates of severe sepsis, septic shock, DIC, and mortality.Conclusion: Semiquantitative procalcitonin concentration testing can be helpful for early assessment of disease severity in patients with sepsis. Furthermore, it may also help in predicting early

  20. CD147 expression predicts biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy independent of histologic and pathologic features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauman, Tyler M.; Ewald, Jonathan A.; Huang, Wei; Ricke, William A.

    2015-01-01

    CD147 is an MMP-inducing protein often implicated in cancer progression. The purpose of this study was to investigate the expression of CD147 in prostate cancer (PCa) progression and the prognostic ability of CD147 in predicting biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy. Plasma membrane-localized CD147 protein expression was quantified in patient samples using immunohistochemistry and multispectral imaging, and expression was compared to clinico-pathological features (pathologic stage, Gleason score, tumor volume, preoperative PSA, lymph node status, surgical margins, biochemical recurrence status). CD147 specificity and expression were confirmed with immunoblotting of prostate cell lines, and CD147 mRNA expression was evaluated in public expression microarray datasets of patient prostate tumors. Expression of CD147 protein was significantly decreased in localized tumors (pT2; p = 0.02) and aggressive PCa (≥pT3; p = 0.004), and metastases (p = 0.001) compared to benign prostatic tissue. Decreased CD147 was associated with advanced pathologic stage (p = 0.009) and high Gleason score (p = 0.02), and low CD147 expression predicted biochemical recurrence (HR 0.55; 95 % CI 0.31–0.97; p = 0.04) independent of clinico-pathologic features. Immunoblot bands were detected at 44 kDa and 66 kDa, representing non-glycosylated and glycosylated forms of CD147 protein, and CD147 expression was lower in tumorigenic T10 cells than non-tumorigenic BPH-1 cells (p = 0.02). Decreased CD147 mRNA expression was associated with increased Gleason score and pathologic stage in patient tumors but is not associated with recurrence status. Membrane-associated CD147 expression is significantly decreased in PCa compared to non-malignant prostate tissue and is associated with tumor progression, and low CD147 expression predicts biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy independent of pathologic stage, Gleason score, lymph node status, surgical margins, and tumor volume in multivariable

  1. Predicting occupancy for pygmy rabbits in Wyoming: an independent evaluation of two species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germaine, Stephen S.; Ignizio, Drew; Keinath, Doug; Copeland, Holly

    2014-01-01

    Species distribution models are an important component of natural-resource conservation planning efforts. Independent, external evaluation of their accuracy is important before they are used in management contexts. We evaluated the classification accuracy of two species distribution models designed to predict the distribution of pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis habitat in southwestern Wyoming, USA. The Nature Conservancy model was deductive and based on published information and expert opinion, whereas the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model was statistically derived using historical observation data. We randomly selected 187 evaluation survey points throughout southwestern Wyoming in areas predicted to be habitat and areas predicted to be nonhabitat for each model. The Nature Conservancy model correctly classified 39 of 77 (50.6%) unoccupied evaluation plots and 65 of 88 (73.9%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 63.3%. The Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model correctly classified 53 of 95 (55.8%) unoccupied plots and 59 of 88 (67.0%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 61.2%. Based on 95% asymptotic confidence intervals, classification success of the two models did not differ. The models jointly classified 10.8% of the area as habitat and 47.4% of the area as nonhabitat, but were discordant in classifying the remaining 41.9% of the area. To evaluate how anthropogenic development affected model predictive success, we surveyed 120 additional plots among three density levels of gas-field road networks. Classification success declined sharply for both models as road-density level increased beyond 5 km of roads per km-squared area. Both models were more effective at predicting habitat than nonhabitat in relatively undeveloped areas, and neither was effective at accounting for the effects of gas-energy-development road networks. Resource managers who wish to know the amount of pygmy rabbit habitat present in an

  2. Cardiac dysfunction assessed by echocardiographic tissue Doppler imaging is an independent predictor of mortality in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogelvang, Rasmus; Sogaard, Peter; Pedersen, Sune A

    2009-01-01

    parameters, left ventricular dysfunction by TDI is a powerful and independent predictor of death, especially when systolic performance and diastolic performance are considered together, recognizing their interdependency and their complex relation to deteriorating cardiac function....

  3. Postoperative Prostate-Specific Antigen Velocity Independently Predicts for Failure of Salvage Radiotherapy After Prostatectomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, Christopher R.; Presti, Joseph C.; Brooks, James D.; Gill, Harcharan; Spiotto, Michael T.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Identification of patients most likely to benefit from salvage radiotherapy (RT) using postoperative (postop) prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics. Methods and Materials: From 1984 to 2004, 81 patients who fit the following criteria formed the study population: undetectable PSA after radical prostatectomy (RP); pathologically negative nodes; biochemical relapse defined as a persistently detectable PSA; salvage RT; and two or more postop PSAs available before salvage RT. Salvage RT included the whole pelvic nodes in 55 patients and 4 months of total androgen suppression in 56 patients. The median follow-up was >5 years. All relapses were defined as a persistently detectable PSA. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards multivariable analysis were performed for all clinical, pathological, and treatment factors predicting for biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS). Results: There were 37 biochemical relapses observed after salvage RT. The 5-year bRFS after salvage RT for patients with postop prostate-specific antigen velocity ≤1 vs. >1 ng/ml/yr was 59% vs. 29%, p = 0.002. In multivariate analysis, only postop PSAV (p = 0.0036), pre-RT PSA level ≤1 (p = 0.037) and interval-to-relapse >10 months (p = 0.012) remained significant, whereas pelvic RT, hormone therapy, and RT dose showed a trend (p = ∼0.06). PSAV, but not prostate-specific antigen doubling time, predicted successful salvage RT, suggesting an association of zero-order kinetics with locally recurrent disease. Conclusions: Postoperative PSA velocity independently predicts for the failure of salvage RT and can be considered in addition to high-risk features when selecting patients in need of systemic therapy following biochemical failure after RP. For well-selected patients, salvage RT can achieve high cure rates

  4. High peritoneal transport status is not an independent risk factor for high mortality in patients treated with automated peritoneal dialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tae Ik; Park, Jung Tak; Lee, Dong Hyung; Lee, Ju Hyun; Yoo, Tae Hyun; Kim, Beom Seok; Kang, Shin-Wook; Lee, Ho Yung; Choi, Kyu Hun

    2010-09-01

    We undertook this study to elucidate whether baseline peritoneal membrane transport characteristics are associated with high mortality in incident automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) patients. This retrospective study includes 117 patients who started APD at Yonsei University Health System from 1996 to 2008 and had a PET within 3 months of APD initiation. High transporters were significantly older and had a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease. Patient survival for years 1, 3, and 5 were 85%, 64%, and 35% for high transporter and 94%, 81%, and 68% for non-high transporter group (Ptransport status was not a significant predictor for mortality in this population when the other covariates were included. Even though high transport was significantly associated with mortality in the univariate analysis, its role seemed to be influenced by other comorbid conditions. These findings suggest that the proper management of these comorbid conditions, as well as appropriate ultrafiltration by use of APD and/or icodextrin, must be considered as protective strategies to improve survival in peritoneal dialysis patients with high transport.

  5. Physical activity assessed in routine care predicts mortality after a COPD hospitalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn L. Moy

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The independent relationship between physical inactivity and risk of death after an index chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD hospitalisation is unknown. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a large integrated healthcare system. Patients were included if they were hospitalised for COPD between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2011. All-cause mortality in the 12 months after discharge was the primary outcome. Physical activity, expressed as self-reported minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA, was routinely assessed at outpatient visits prior to hospitalisation. 1727 (73% patients were inactive (0 min of MVPA per week, 412 (17% were insufficiently active (1–149 min of MVPA per week and 231 (10% were active (≥150 min of MVPA per week. Adjusted Cox regression models assessed risk of death across the MVPA categories. Among 2370 patients (55% females and mean age 73±11 years, there were 464 (20% deaths. Patients who were insufficiently active or active had a 28% (adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.54–0.97, p=0.03 and 47% (adjusted HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.34–0.84, p<0.01 lower risk of death, respectively, in the 12 months following an index COPD hospitalisation compared to inactive patients. Any level of MVPA is associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality after a COPD hospitalisation. Routine assessment of physical activity in clinical care would identify persons at high risk for dying after COPD hospitalisation.

  6. Risk factors predicting mortality in patients with lung abscess in a public tertiary care center in Karachi, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghazal, Shaista; Kumar, Ashok; Shrestha, Binav; Sajid, Sana; Malik, Maria; Rizvi, Nadeen

    2013-01-01

    Lung abscess is a commonly encountered entity in South-East Asia but not much data regarding its outcome is available. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with increased mortality in patients diagnosed with lung abscess in a tertiary care center of Karachi, Pakistan. A retrospective case analysis was performed via hospital records, on patients admitted with lung abscess between January 2009 and January 2011 at the largest state-owned tertiary care centre in Karachi, Pakistan. Out of the 41 patients hospitalized, 17 could not survive and were evaluated for clinical, radiological and microbiological factors to determine association with heightened mortality. Mortality due to lung abscess stood at 41.4% (17 of 41 cases). Adult male patients were found to have higher mortality with 13 out of 17 (43%) dead patients being male. A majority (21/41, 51.2%) of the cases belonged to the 41-60 year old age group. Highest mortality was seen in patients200 mg/dL (56%) succumb to disease. Patients with a positive history of smoking, diabetes mellitus, and alcohol intake expressed mortality rates of 44%, 56%, and 50% respectively; while 29.4% of the mortalities were positive for Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum culture. A significant association was found with elevated mortality and low haemoglobin levels at time of admission; mortality was 58% (p=0.005) in patients with Hb less than or equal to 10 mg/dL. The risk factors involved with heightened mortality included male gender and history of smoking, diabetes and alcohol intake. High blood sugar levels and detection of Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum cultures were also implicated. Anemia (Hb level less than or equal to 10 mg/dl) was statistically significant predictive factor for increased mortality.

  7. The predictive value of leucocyte progression for one-week mortality on acutely admitted medical patients to the emergency department

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Soltau, Matilde Røgilds

    2018-01-01

    female. Using logistic regression, we found significantly lower one-week mortality with falling leucocyte count progression, even when controlling for confounders. A decreasing leucocyte count had a sensitivity for one-week mortality of 65%, specificity of 62%, positive predictive value of 4......%, and negative predictive value of 99%. Difference in admission to the intensive care unit was non-significant between the three groups. Difference in length of stay was significant, but with one day difference, the clinical significance is questionable. CONCLUSION: Leucocyte count progression is not sensitive...... enough to predict one-week mortality, nor specific enough to discount it. It is important for physicians to be aware of this to avoid faulty assessments based on imprecise assumptions....

  8. Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, Elizabeth C; Walker, A Sarah; Kiguli, Sarah; Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Opoka, Robert O; Engoru, Charles; Akech, Samuel O; Nyeko, Richard; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Berkley, James A; Mpoya, Ayub; Levin, Michael; Crawley, Jane; Gibb, Diana M; Maitland, Kathryn; Babiker, Abdel G

    2015-07-31

    Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally

  9. Single-centre validation of the EASL-CLIF consortium definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure and CLIF-SOFA for prediction of mortality in cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Pedro E Soares E; Fayad, Leonardo; Lazzarotto, César; Ronsoni, Marcelo F; Bazzo, Maria L; Colombo, Bruno S; Dantas-Correa, Esther B; Narciso-Schiavon, Janaína L; Schiavon, Leonardo L

    2015-05-01

    The idea of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has emerged to identify those subjects with organ failure and high mortality rates. However, the absence of a precise definition has limited the clinical application and research related to the ACLF concept. We sought to validate the ACLF definition and the CLIF-SOFA Score recently proposed by the EASL-CLIF Consortium in a cohort of patients admitted for acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis. In this prospective cohort study, patients were followed during their hospital stay and thirty and 90-day mortality was evaluated by phone call, in case of hospital discharge. All subjects underwent laboratory evaluation at admission. Between December 2010 and November 2013, 192 cirrhotic patients were included. At enrollment, 46 patients (24%) met the criteria for ACLF (Grades 1, 2 and 3 in 18%, 4% and 2% respectively). The 30-day mortality was 65% in ACLF group and 12% in the remaining subjects (P Logistic regression analysis showed that 30-day mortality was independently associated with ascites and ACLF at admission. The Kaplan-Meier survival probability at 90-day was 92% in patients without ascites or ACLF and only 22% for patients with both ascites and ACLF. The AUROC of CLIF-SOFA in predicting 30-day mortality was 0.847 ± 0.034, with sensitivity of 64%, specificity of 90% and positive likelihood ratio of 6.61 for values ≥9. In our single-centre experience the CLIF-SOFA and the EASL-CLIF Consortium definition of ACLF proved to be strong predictors of short-term mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted for AD. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Serum phosphate predicts early mortality in adults starting antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C Heimburger

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa have high rates of mortality in the initial weeks of treatment. We assessed the association of serum phosphate with early mortality among HIV-infected adults with severe malnutrition and/or advanced immunosuppression. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An observational cohort of 142 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia with body mass index (BMI <16 kg/m(2 or CD4(+ lymphocyte count <50 cells/microL, or both, was followed prospectively during the first 12 weeks of ART. Detailed health and dietary intake history, review of systems, physical examination, serum metabolic panel including phosphate, and serum ferritin and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP were monitored. The primary outcome was mortality. Baseline serum phosphate was a significant predictor of mortality; participants alive at 12 weeks had a median value of 1.30 mmol/L (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.04, 1.43, compared to 1.06 mmol/L (IQR: 0.89, 1.27 among those who died (p<0.01. Each 0.1 mmol/L increase in baseline phosphate was associated with an incremental decrease in mortality (AHR 0.83; 95% CI 0.72 to 0.95. The association was independent of other metabolic parameters and known risk factors for early ART-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. While participant attrition represented a limitation, it was consistent with local program experience. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Low serum phosphate at ART initiation was an independent predictor of early mortality among HIV patients starting ART with severe malnutrition or advanced immunosuppression. This may represent a physiologic phenomenon similar to refeeding syndrome, and may lead to therapeutic interventions that could reduce mortality.

  11. Left ventricular ejection fraction to predict early mortality in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, Xavier; Théroux, Pierre

    2005-08-01

    Improvement in risk stratification of patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a gateway to a more judicious treatment. This study examines whether the routine determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) adds significant prognostic information to currently recommended stratifiers. Several predictors of inhospital mortality were prospectively characterized in a registry study of 1104 consecutive patients, for whom an EF was determined, who were admitted for an ACS. Multiple regression models were constructed using currently recommended clinical, electrocardiographic, and blood marker stratifiers, and values of EF were incorporated into the models. Age, ST-segment shifts, elevation of cardiac markers, and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score all predicted mortality (P model improved the prediction of mortality (C statistic 0.73 vs 0.67). The odds of death increased by a factor of 1.042 for each 1% decrement in EF. By receiver operating curves, an EF cutoff of 48% provided the best predictive value. Mortality rates were 3.3 times higher within each TIMI risk score stratum in patients with an EF of 48% or lower as compared with those with higher. The TIMI risk score predicts inhospital mortality in a broad population of patients with ACS. The further consideration of EF adds significant prognostic information.

  12. Elevated alanine aminotransferase independently predicts new onset of depression in employees undergoing health screening examinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelber-Sagi, S; Toker, S; Armon, G; Melamed, S; Berliner, S; Shapira, I; Halpern, Z; Santo, E; Shibolet, O

    2013-12-01

    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT). NAFLD is associated with insulin resistance and hepatic inflammation. Similarly, patients with depression exhibit insulin resistance and increased inflammatory markers. However, no study has shown a clear association between elevated ALT and the development of depression. The aim of the study was to test whether elevated ALT, a surrogate marker for NAFLD, predicts the development of depression. The present prospective cohort study investigated 12 180 employed adults referred for health examinations that included fasting blood tests and anthropometric measurements between 2003 and 2010. Exclusion criteria were: baseline minor/major depression, excessive alcohol consumption and other causes for ALT elevation. Depression was evaluated by the eight-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8) score. The final cohort included 5984 subjects [69.4% men, aged 45.0 (s.d. = 10.24) years]. The incidence rate of minor and major depression was 3.8% and 1.4%, respectively. Elevated ALT was a significant independent predictor for the occurrence of minor [odds ratio (OR) 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40-2.92] and major (OR 3.132, 95% CI 1.81-5.40) depression after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, education level, serum levels of lipids, glucose, smoking and physical activity. Adding subjective health and affective state parameters (sleep disturbances, self-rated health, anxiety and burnout) as potential mediators only slightly ameliorated the association. Persistently elevated ALT was associated with the greatest risk for minor or major depression as compared with elevation only at baseline or follow-up (p for trend depressive symptoms, thus suggesting that NAFLD may represent an independent modifiable risk factor for depression.

  13. High levels of comorbidity and disability cancel out the dementia effect in predictions of long-term mortality after discharge in the very old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zekry, Dina; Herrmann, François R; Graf, Christophe E; Giannelli, Sandra; Michel, Jean-Pierre; Gold, Gabriel; Krause, Karl-Heinz

    2011-01-01

    The relative weight of various etiologies of dementia as predictors of long-term mortality after other risk factors have been taken into account remains unclear. We investigated the 5-year mortality risk associated with dementia in elderly people after discharge from acute care, taking into account comorbid conditions and functionality. A prospective cohort study of 444 patients (mean age: 85 years; 74% female) discharged from the acute geriatric unit of Geneva University Hospitals. On admission, each subject underwent a standardized diagnostic evaluation: demographic variables, cognitive, comorbid medical conditions and functional assessment. Patients were followed yearly by the same team. Predictors of survival at 5 years were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. The univariate model showed that being older and male, and having vascular and severe dementia, comorbidity and functional disability, were predictive of shorter survival. However, in the full multivariate model adjusted for age and sex, the effect of dementia type or severity completely disappeared when all the variables were added. In multivariate analysis, the best predictor was higher comorbidity score, followed by functional status (R(2) = 23%). The identification of comorbidity and functional impairment effects as predictive factors for long-term mortality independent of cognitive status may increase the accuracy of long-term discharge planning. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  14. External validation and clinical utility of a prediction model for 6-month mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis for end-stage kidney disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzley, Brian; Er, Lee; Chiu, Helen Hl; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Martinusen, Dan; Carson, Rachel C; Hargrove, Gaylene; Levin, Adeera; Karim, Mohamud

    2018-02-01

    End-stage kidney disease is associated with poor prognosis. Health care professionals must be prepared to address end-of-life issues and identify those at high risk for dying. A 6-month mortality prediction model for patients on dialysis derived in the United States is used but has not been externally validated. We aimed to assess the external validity and clinical utility in an independent cohort in Canada. We examined the performance of the published 6-month mortality prediction model, using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analyses. Data were derived from a cohort of 374 prevalent dialysis patients in two regions of British Columbia, Canada, which included serum albumin, age, peripheral vascular disease, dementia, and answers to the "the surprise question" ("Would I be surprised if this patient died within the next year?"). The observed mortality in the validation cohort was 11.5% at 6 months. The prediction model had reasonable discrimination (c-stat = 0.70) but poor calibration (calibration-in-the-large = -0.53 (95% confidence interval: -0.88, -0.18); calibration slope = 0.57 (95% confidence interval: 0.31, 0.83)) in our data. Decision curve analysis showed the model only has added value in guiding clinical decision in a small range of threshold probabilities: 8%-20%. Despite reasonable discrimination, the prediction model has poor calibration in this external study cohort; thus, it may have limited clinical utility in settings outside of where it was derived. Decision curve analysis clarifies limitations in clinical utility not apparent by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. This study highlights the importance of external validation of prediction models prior to routine use in clinical practice.

  15. Heterogeneous postsurgical data analytics for predictive modeling of mortality risks in intensive care units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun Chen; Hui Yang

    2014-01-01

    The rapid advancements of biomedical instrumentation and healthcare technology have resulted in data-rich environments in hospitals. However, the meaningful information extracted from rich datasets is limited. There is a dire need to go beyond current medical practices, and develop data-driven methods and tools that will enable and help (i) the handling of big data, (ii) the extraction of data-driven knowledge, (iii) the exploitation of acquired knowledge for optimizing clinical decisions. This present study focuses on the prediction of mortality rates in Intensive Care Units (ICU) using patient-specific healthcare recordings. It is worth mentioning that postsurgical monitoring in ICU leads to massive datasets with unique properties, e.g., variable heterogeneity, patient heterogeneity, and time asyncronization. To cope with the challenges in ICU datasets, we developed the postsurgical decision support system with a series of analytical tools, including data categorization, data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and predictive modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed data-driven methodology outperforms traditional approaches and yields better results based on the evaluation of real-world ICU data from 4000 subjects in the database. This research shows great potentials for the use of data-driven analytics to improve the quality of healthcare services.

  16. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Berzan, E

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR\\'s of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome.

  17. Prognostic utility of plasma S100A12 levels to establish a novel scoring system for predicting mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients: a two-year prospective observational study in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background S100A12 protein is an endogenous receptor ligand for advanced glycation end products. In this study, the plasma S100A12 level was assessed as an independent predictor of mortality, and its utility in clinical settings was examined. Methods In a previous cross-sectional study, plasma S100A12 levels were measured in 550 maintenance hemodialysis patients to determine the association between S100A12 and the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). In this prospective study, the risk of mortality within a two-year period was determined. An integer scoring system was developed to predict mortality on the basis of the plasma S100A12 levels. Results Higher plasma S100A12 levels (≥18.79 ng/mL) were more closely associated with higher all-cause mortality than lower plasma S100A12 levels (statistic = 0.730 (0.656–0.804)]. The resulting model demonstrated good discriminative power for distinguishing the validation population of 303 hemodialysis patients [c-statistic = 0.721 (0.627–0.815)]. Conclusion The results indicate that plasma S100A12 level is an independent predictor for two-year all-cause mortality. A simple integer scoring system was therefore established for predicting mortality on the basis of plasma S100A12 levels. PMID:23324110

  18. Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

    2014-05-21

    Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

  19. Circulating Markers of Endothelial Dysfunction Interact With Proteinuria in Predicting Mortality in Renal Transplant Recipients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ree, Rutger M.; Oterdoom, Leendert H.; de Vries, Aiko P.J.; Homan van der Heide, Jaap J.; van Son, Willem J.; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Reinold O.B.; Bakker, Stephan J L

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Proteinuria is associated with endothelial dysfunction (ED) and increased mortality. We investigated whether urinary protein excretion (UPE) is correlated with markers of ED and whether these markers affect the association of proteinuria with mortality in renal transplant recipients

  20. Circulating markers of endothelial dysfunction interact with proteinuria in predicting mortality in renal transplant recipients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ree, Rutger M.; Oterdoom, Leendert H.; de Vries, Aiko P. J.; Homan van der Heide, Jaap J.; van Son, Willem J.; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Reinold O. B.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.

    2008-01-01

    Proteinuria is associated with endothelial dysfunction (ED) and increased mortality. We investigated whether urinary protein excretion (UPE) is correlated with markers of ED and whether these markers affect the association of proteinuria with mortality in renal transplant recipients (RTR). Six

  1. Subjective fear, interference by threat, and fear associations independently predict fear-related behavior in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Anke M; Kleinherenbrink, Annelies V; Simons, Carlijn; de Gier, Erwin; Klein, Steven; Allart, Esther; Bögels, Susan M; Becker, Eni S; Rinck, Mike

    2012-09-01

    Several information-processing models highlight the independent roles of controlled and automatic processes in explaining fearful behavior. Therefore, we investigated whether direct measures of controlled processes and indirect measures of automatic processes predict unique variance components of children's spider fear-related behavior. Seventy-seven children between 8 and 13 years performed an Affective Priming Task (APT) measuring associative bias, a pictorial version of the Emotional Stroop Task (EST) measuring attentional bias, filled out the Spider Anxiety and Disgust Screening for Children (SADS-C) in order to assess self-perceived fear, and took part in a Behavioral Assessment Test (BAT) to measure avoidance of spiders. The SADS-C, EST, and APT did not correlate with each other. Spider fear-related behavior was best explained by SADS-C, APT, and EST together; they explained 51% of the variance in BAT behavior. No children with clinical levels of spider phobia were tested. The direct and the different indirect measures did no correlate with each other. These results indicate that both direct and indirect measures are useful for predicting unique variance components of fear-related behavior in children. The lack of relations between direct and indirect measures may explain why some earlier studies did not find stronger color-naming interference or stronger fear associations in children with high levels of self-reported fear. It also suggests that children with high levels of spider-fearful behavior have different fear-related associations and display higher interference by spider stimuli than children with non-fearful behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. [Reliability of the PROFUND index to predict 4-year mortality in polypathological patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez-Manglano, Jesús; Del Corral Beamonte, Esther; Ramos Ibáñez, Rosa; Lambán Aranda, María Pilar; Toyas Miazza, Carla; Rodero Roldán, María Del Mar; Ortiz Domingo, Concepción; Munilla López, Eulalia; de Escalante Yangüela, Begoña

    2016-09-16

    To determine the usefullness of the PROFUND index to assess the risk of global death after 4 years in polypathological patients. Multicenter prospective cohort (Internal Medicine and Geriatrics) study. Polypathological patients admitted between March 1st and June 30th 2011 were included. For each patient, data concerning age, sex, living at home or in a nursing residence, polypathology categories, Charlson, Barthel and Lawton-Brody indexes, Pfeiffer questionnaire, socio-familial Gijon scale, delirium, number of drugs, hemoglobin and creatinine values were gathered, and the PROFUND index was calculated. The follow-up lasted 4 years. We included 441 patients, 324 from Internal Medicine and 117 from Geriatrics, with a mean age of 80.9 (8.7) years. Of them, 245 (55.6%) were women. Heart (62.7%), neurological (41.4%) and respiratory (37.3%) diseases were the most frequent. Geriatrics inpatients were older and more dependants and presented greater cognitive deterioration. After 4 years, 335 (76%) patients died. Mortality was associated with age, dyspnoea, Barthel index<60, delirium, advanced neoplasia and≥4 admissions in the last year. The area under the curve of the PROFUND index was 0.748, 95% CI 0.689-0.806, P<.001 in Internal Medicine and 0.517, 95% CI 0.369-0.666, P=.818 in Geriatrics patients, respectively. The PROFUND index is a reliable tool for predicting long-term global mortality in polypathological patients from Internal Medicine but not from Geriatrics departments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. The ability of self-rated health to predict mortality among community-dwelling elderly individuals differs according to the specific cause of death: data from the NEDICES Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Ruiz, Mario; Guerra-Vales, Juan M.; Trincado, Rocío; Fernández, Rebeca; Medrano, María José; Villarejo, Alberto; Benito-León, Julián; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix

    2013-01-01

    Background The biomedical and psychosocial mechanisms underlying the relationship between self-rated health (SRH) and mortality in elderly individuals remain unclear. Objective To assess the association between different measurements of subjective health (global, age-comparative, and time-comparative SRH) and cause-specific mortality. Methods Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) is a prospective population-based survey of the prevalence and incidence of major age-associated conditions. Data on demographic and health-related variables were collected from 5,278 subjects (≥65 years) at the baseline questionnaire. Thirteen-year mortality and cause of death were obtained from the National Death Registry. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for SRH and all-cause and cause-specific mortality were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models. Results At baseline, 4,958 participants (93.9%) answered the SRH questionnaire. At the end of follow-up 2,468 (49.8%) participants had died (of whom 723 [29.2%] died from cardiovascular diseases, 609 [24.7%] from cancer, and 359 [14.5%] from respiratory diseases). Global SRH predicted independently all-cause mortality (aHR for “poor or very poor” vs. “very good” category: 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15–1.69). Analysis of cause-specific mortality revealed that global SRH was an independent predictor for death due to respiratory diseases (aHR for “poor or very poor” vs. “very good” category: 2.61; 95% CI: 1.55–4.39), whereas age-comparative SRH exhibited a gradient effect on the risk of death due to stroke. Time-comparative SRH provided small additional predictive value. Conclusions The predictive ability of SRH for mortality largely differs according to the specific cause of death, with the strongest associations found for respiratory disease and stroke mortality. PMID:23615509

  4. Is the adiposity-associated FTO gene variant related to all-cause mortality independent of adiposity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zimmermann, E; Ängquist, L H; Mirza, S S

    2015-01-01

    Previously, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene showed a much stronger association with all-cause mortality than expected from its association with body mass index (BMI), body fat mass index (FMI) and waist circumference (WC). This finding implies that the SNP has......-up. Linear regression showed that the minor allele of the FTO SNP was associated with greater BMI (n = 169,551; 0.32 kg m(-2) ; 95% CI 0.28-0.32, P ... hazard regression analyses for mortality showed that the hazards ratio (HR) for the minor allele of the FTO SNPs was 1.02 (1.00-1.04, P = 0.097), but the apparent excess risk was eliminated after adjustment for BMI and WC (HR: 1.00; 0.98-1.03, P = 0.662) and for FMI (HR: 1.00; 0.96-1.04, P = 0...

  5. Mortality prediction to hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia: PO2 /FiO2 combined lymphocyte count is the answer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Shu Jing; Li, Hui; Liu, Meng; Liu, Ying Mei; Zhou, Fei; Liu, Bo; Qu, Jiu Xin; Cao, Bin

    2017-05-01

    Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity scores perform well in predicting mortality of CAP patients, but their applicability in influenza pneumonia is powerless. The aim of our research was to test the efficiency of PO 2 /FiO 2 and CAP severity scores in predicting mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission with influenza pneumonia patients. We reviewed all patients with positive influenza virus RNA detection in Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital during the 2009-2014 influenza seasons. Outpatients, inpatients with no pneumonia and incomplete data were excluded. We used receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) to verify the accuracy of severity scores or indices as mortality predictors in the study patients. Among 170 hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia, 30 (17.6%) died. Among those who were classified as low-risk (predicted mortality 0.1%-2.1%) by pneumonia severity index (PSI) or confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 year (CURB-65), the actual mortality ranged from 5.9 to 22.1%. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that hypoxia (PO 2 /FiO 2  ≤ 250) and lymphopenia (peripheral blood lymphocyte count pneumonia confirmed a similar pattern and PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count was also the best predictor for predicting ICU admission. In conclusion, we found that PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count is simple and reliable predictor of hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia in predicting mortality and ICU admission. When PO 2 /FiO 2  ≤ 250 or peripheral blood lymphocyte count pneumonia. © 2015 The Authors. The Clinical Respiratory Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Scheme-Independent Predictions in QCD: Commensurate Scale Relations and Physical Renormalization Schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodsky, Stanley J.

    1998-01-01

    Commensurate scale relations are perturbative QCD predictions which relate observable to observable at fixed relative scale, such as the ''generalized Crewther relation'', which connects the Bjorken and Gross-Llewellyn Smith deep inelastic scattering sum rules to measurements of the e + e - annihilation cross section. All non-conformal effects are absorbed by fixing the ratio of the respective momentum transfer and energy scales. In the case of fixed-point theories, commensurate scale relations relate both the ratio of couplings and the ratio of scales as the fixed point is approached. The relations between the observables are independent of the choice of intermediate renormalization scheme or other theoretical conventions. Commensurate scale relations also provide an extension of the standard minimal subtraction scheme, which is analytic in the quark masses, has non-ambiguous scale-setting properties, and inherits the physical properties of the effective charge α V (Q 2 ) defined from the heavy quark potential. The application of the analytic scheme to the calculation of quark-mass-dependent QCD corrections to the Z width is also reviewed

  7. Trauma and Injury Severity Score in Predicting Mortality of Polytrauma Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Gunawan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Abstract TRISS (Trauma and Injury Severity Score is one of the most commonly used trauma score. Currently, there is no data about using TRISS in the care of polytrauma patients at emergency department of dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital (CMH. This research was intended to evaluate whether TRISS can predict the mortality of polytrauma patients at CMH. This was an analytic descriptive study with retrospective cohort design. Data was collected from medical records of polytrauma patients who were admitted to emergency department of CMH from 2011-201 4 then we analyzed the relationship between TRISS and patient’s prognosis. Furthermore, we conducted bivariate and multivariate analysis by SPSS 20 software. Seventy medical records were included in this study. The majority of patients were male (65% in young age. There were 69 patients who experienced blunt trauma, with the majority (94.3% were caused by motor vehicle accident. After receiving trauma care, there were 26 deaths, while other 44 patients survived. From bivariate and multivariate analysis, we found a significant difference between TRISS and patient’s prognosis. TRISS strongly predicts polytrauma patient’s mortality (AUC 0,899; IK95% 0,824-0,975. TRISS has 84,6% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity with optimal intersection point ≤ 90,5. TRISS is able to predict the mortality of polytrauma patients at CMH. TRISS untuk Memprediksi Mortalitas Pasien Politrauma Abstrak TRISS merupakan salah satu penilaian trauma yang paling sering digunakan. Namun, saat ini belum ada data penggunaan TRISS dalam penanganan pasien politrauma di Instalasi Gawat Darurat (IGD Rumah Sakit Umum Pusat Nasional dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo (RSUPNCM. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kemampuan TRISS dalam memprediksi mortalitas pasien politrauma di IGD RSUPNCM. Penelitian ini adalah studi analitik deskriptif dengan menggunakan desain kohort retrospektif. Data diambil

  8. External validation of Vascular Study Group of New England risk predictive model of mortality after elective abdominal aorta aneurysm repair in the Vascular Quality Initiative and comparison against established models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Mohammad H; Rybin, Denis V; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Farber, Alik

    2018-01-01

    .639). Across the 5 risk quintiles, the VSGNE model predicted observed mortality significantly with great accuracy. This simple VSGNE AAA risk predictive model showed very high discriminative ability in predicting mortality after elective AAA repair among a large external independent sample of AAA cases performed by a diverse array of physicians nationwide. The risk score based on this simple VSGNE model can reliably stratify patients according to their risk of mortality after elective AAA repair better than other established models. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Serial evaluation of the MODS, SOFA and LOD scores to predict ICU mortality in mixed critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khwannimit, Bodin

    2008-09-01

    To perform a serial assessment and compare ability in predicting the intensive care unit (ICU) mortality of the multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and logistic organ dysfunction (LOD) score. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24-month period at a tertiary referral university hospital. The MODS, SOFA, and LOD scores were calculated on initial and repeated every 24 hrs. Two thousand fifty four patients were enrolled in the present study. The maximum and delta-scores of all the organ dysfunction scores correlated with ICU mortality. The maximum score of all models had better ability for predicting ICU mortality than initial or delta score. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for maximum scores was 0.892 for the MODS, 0.907 for the SOFA, and 0.92for the LOD. No statistical difference existed between all maximum scores and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Serial assessment of organ dysfunction during the ICU stay is reliable with ICU mortality. The maximum scores is the best discrimination comparable with APACHE II score in predicting ICU mortality.

  10. Customised and Noncustomised Birth Weight Centiles and Prediction of Stillbirth and Infant Mortality and Morbidity: A Cohort Study of 979,912 Term Singleton Pregnancies in Scotland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stamatina Iliodromiti

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There is limited evidence to support the use of customised centile charts to identify those at risk of stillbirth and infant death at term. We sought to determine birth weight thresholds at which mortality and morbidity increased and the predictive ability of noncustomised (accounting for gestational age and sex and partially customised centiles (additionally accounting for maternal height and parity to identify fetuses at risk.This is a population-based linkage study of 979,912 term singleton pregnancies in Scotland, United Kingdom, between 1992 and 2010. The main exposures were noncustomised and partially customised birth weight centiles. The primary outcomes were infant death, stillbirth, overall mortality (infant and stillbirth, Apgar score <7 at 5 min, and admission to the neonatal unit. Optimal thresholds that predicted outcomes for both non- and partially customised birth weight centiles were calculated. Prediction of mortality between non- and partially customised birth weight centiles was compared using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC and net reclassification index (NRI.Birth weight ≤25th centile was associated with higher risk for all mortality and morbidity outcomes. For stillbirth, low Apgar score, and neonatal unit admission, risk also increased from the 85th centile. Similar patterns and magnitude of associations were observed for both non- and partially customised birth weight centiles. Partially customised birth weight centiles did not improve the discrimination of mortality (AUROC 0.61 [95%CI 0.60, 0.62] compared with noncustomised birth weight centiles (AUROC 0.62 [95%CI 0.60, 0.63] and slightly underperformed in reclassifying pregnancies to different risk categories for both fatal and non-fatal adverse outcomes (NRI -0.027 [95% CI -0.039, -0.016], p < 0.001. We were unable to fully customise centile charts because we lacked data on maternal weight and ethnicity. Additional analyses in an

  11. Fasting glucose, fasting insulin, and insulin resistance in the prediction of myocardial infarction and mortality at long-term follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, M. L.; Pareek, M.; Leosdottir, M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To assess the additional prognostic value of fasting blood glucose (FBG), fasting plasma insulin (FPI), and homeostasis model assessment derived insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) for predicting incident myocardial infarction (MI) and all-cause mortality, independently of traditional...... measured at baseline. Subsequently, HOMA-IR was derived using the computerized HOMA calculator and ranked into quartiles due to the non-normal distribution and presumably non-linear biological effect of insulin resistance. Prognostic values of FBG, FPI, HOMA-IR, and traditional risk factors were tested.......1-48.3] years, whereas median [IQR] HOMA-IR was 0.9 [0.4-1.4]. Over a median follow-up time of 20 years, 1448 events occurred (11.3 per 1000 person-years). The simple prediction model, i.e. the model with traditional CV risk factors only, included age, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total...

  12. Right ventricular dysfunction as an independent predictor of short- and long-term mortality in patients with heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjaergaard, Jesper; Akkan, Dilek; Iversen, Kasper Karmark

    2007-01-01

    by co-existing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). AIMS: To examine the prognostic information from TAPSE adjusted for the potential confounding effects of co-existing cardiovascular and COPD in a large series of patients admitted for new onset or worsening HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Eight...... in HF including left ventricular function. The co-existence of COPD is also associated with an adverse prognosis independent of the RV systolic function....

  13. The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B

    2013-06-01

    This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention in patients without diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekmekci, Ahmet; Cicek, Gokhan; Uluganyan, Mahmut; Gungor, Baris; Osman, Faizel; Ozcan, Kazim Serhan; Bozbay, Mehmet; Ertas, Gokhan; Zencirci, Aycan; Sayar, Nurten; Eren, Mehmet

    2014-02-01

    Admission hyperglycemia is associated with high inhospital and long-term adverse events in patients that undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We aimed to evaluate whether hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality. We prospectively analyzed 503 consecutive patients. The patients were divided into tertiles according to the admission glucose levels. Tertile I: glucose 145 mg/dL (n = 169). Inhospital mortality was 0 in tertile I, 2 in tertile II, and 9 in tertile III (P < .02). Cardiogenic shock occurred more frequently in tertile III compared to tertiles I and II (10% vs 4.1% and 0.6%, respectively, P = .01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that patients in tertile III had significantly higher risk of inhospital major adverse cardiac events compared to patients in tertile I (odds ratio: 9.55, P < .02). Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital adverse cardiac events in mortality and acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in patients that underwent primary PCI.

  15. Forced vital capacity predicts morbidity and mortality in adults with repaired tetralogy of Fallot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Katie E; Buelow, Matthew W; Dixon, Jennifer; Brazauskas, Ruta; Cohen, Scott B; Earing, Michael G; Ginde, Salil

    2017-07-01

    Abnormal lung function characterized by a reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) is common in adults with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) and is associated with previous thoracotomies and sternotomies. The impact of abnormal lung function on clinical outcomes in adult patients with repaired TOF is unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of abnormal lung function on the outcome of hospitalization and death in adults with repaired TOF when analyzed with other traditional cardiac risk factors. Retrospective study of adults with repaired TOF, who underwent spirometry between 2000 and 2014. FVC < 60% of predicted was categorized as moderate-to-severely reduced lung function. Primary outcome measure was the combined clinical endpoint of death, cardiac transplantation, or nonelective hospitalization for primary cardiac or respiratory indication. A total of 122 patients were included. Average age at spirometry testing was 31 ± 10.1 years. FVC was < 60% predicted in 23 (19%) patients. During a mean follow-up period of 3.97 ± 2.65 years, 23 (19%) patients reached the combined clinical outcome of nonelective hospitalization and/or death. FVC < 60% predicted was independently associated with the risk for the combined clinical outcome (RR 6.68 (95% CI 2.49-17.94), P < .001). Abnormal pulmonary function characterized by reduced FVC is common in adults with repaired TOF. Patients with FVC < 60% predicted had a 6 times higher rate of hospitalization and/or death compared to those with FVC ≥ 60%. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Quantitative PET Imaging with Novel HER3 Targeted Peptides Selected by Phage Display to Predict Androgen Independent Prostate Cancer Progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Independent Prostate Cancer Progression PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Benjamin Larimer, PhD CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Massachusetts General Hospital Boston...3. DATES COVERED 1 Aug 2016 – 31 July 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Cancer Progression 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Quantitative PET Imaging with Novel HER3...Targeted Peptides Selected by Phage Display to Predict Androgen-Independent Prostate Cancer Progression 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-16-1-0447 5c

  17. Prediction of mortality at age 40 in Danish males at high and low risk for alcoholism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, Joachim; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Nickel, E.J.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This prospective high-risk study examined the influence of father's alcoholism and other archival-generated measures on premature death. METHOD: Sons of alcoholic fathers (n = 223) and sons of non-alcoholic fathers (n = 106) have been studied from birth to age 40. Archival predictors...... of premature death included father's alcoholism, childhood developmental data, and diagnostic information obtained from the Psychiatric Register and alcoholism clinics. RESULTS: By age 40, 21 of the 329 subjects had died (6.4%), a rate that is more than two times greater than expected. Sons of alcoholic...... fathers were not more likely to die by age 40. Premature death was associated with physical immaturity at 1-year of age and psychiatric/alcoholism treatment. No significant interactions were found between risk and archival measures. CONCLUSION: Genetic vulnerability did not independently predict death...

  18. GYM score: 30-day mortality predictive model in elderly patients attended in the emergency department with infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Del Castillo, Juan; Escobar-Curbelo, Luis; Martínez-Ortíz de Zárate, Mikel; Llopis-Roca, Ferrán; García-Lamberechts, Jorge; Moreno-Cuervo, Álvaro; Fernández, Cristina; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier

    2017-06-01

    To determine the validity of the classic sepsis criteria or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, and leukocyte count) and the modified sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus glycemia and altered mental status), and the validity of each of these variables individually to predict 30-day mortality, as well as develop a predictive model of 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in emergency departments (ED). A prospective cohort study including patients at least 75 years old attended in three Spanish university ED for infection during 2013 was carried out. Demographic variables and data on comorbidities, functional status, hemodynamic sepsis diagnosis variables, site of infection, and 30-day mortality were collected. A total of 293 patients were finally included, mean age 84.0 (SD 5.5) years, and 158 (53.9%) were men. Overall, 185 patients (64%) fulfilled the classic sepsis criteria and 224 patients (76.5%) fulfilled the modified sepsis criteria. The all-cause 30-day mortality was 13.0%. The area under the curve of the classic sepsis criteria was 0.585 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.488-0.681; P=0.106], 0.594 for modified sepsis criteria (95% CI: 0.502-0.685; P=0.075), and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.660-0.841; P20 bpm; Morbidity-Charlson index ≥3) to predict 30-day mortality, with statistically significant differences (P=0.004 and Pcapacity than the classic and the modified sepsis criteria to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in the ED.

  19. Performance Evaluation of Five Different Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (DIC) Diagnostic Criteria for Predicting Mortality in Patients with Complicated Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Sang Ook; Park, Sang Hyuk; Hong, Sang Bum; Jang, Seongsoo

    2016-11-01

    Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is a major complication in sepsis patients. We compared the performance of five DIC diagnostic criteria, focusing on the prediction of mortality. One hundred patients with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) were enrolled. Routine DIC laboratory tests were performed over the first 4 days after admission. The overall ICU and 28-day mortality in DIC patients diagnosed from five criteria (International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis [ISTH], the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine [JAAM], the revised JAAM [R-JAAM], the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare [JMHW] and the Korean Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis [KSTH]) were compared. Both KSTH and JMHW criteria showed superior performance than ISTH, JAAM and R-JAAM criteria in the prediction of overall ICU mortality in DIC patients (odds ratio 3.828 and 5.181, P = 0.018 and 0.006, 95% confidence interval 1.256-11.667 and 1.622-16.554, respectively) when applied at day 1 after admission, and survival analysis demonstrated significant prognostic impact of KSTH and JMHW criteria on the prediction of 28-day mortality (P = 0.007 and 0.049, respectively) when applied at day 1 after admission. In conclusion, both KSTH and JMHW criteria would be more useful than other three criteria in predicting prognosis in DIC patients with severe sepsis or septic shock.

  20. Plasma glucose and not hemoglobin or renal function predicts mortality in patients with STEMI complicated with cardiogenic shock

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vis, Marije M.; Engström, Annemarie E.; Sjauw, Krischan D.; Tjong, Fleur Vy; Baan, Jan; Koch, Karel T.; de Vries, Hans J.; Tijssen, Jan Gp; de Winter, Robbert J.; Piek, Jan J.; Henriques, José Ps

    2010-01-01

    Objective To assess the predictive value of three biomarkers for mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with cardiogenic shock. Background STEMI complicated by cardiogenic shock accounts for the majority of STEMI related deaths. Patients with STEMI and hyperglycemia, anemia

  1. Waist circumference as compared with body-mass index in predicting mortality from specific causes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F Leitzmann

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Whether waist circumference provides clinically meaningful information not delivered by body-mass index regarding prediction of cause-specific death is uncertain.We prospectively examined waist circumference (WC and body-mass index (BMI in relation to cause-specific death in 225,712 U.S. women and men. Cox regression was used to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CI. Statistical analyses were conducted using SAS version 9.1.During follow-up from 1996 through 2005, we documented 20,977 deaths. Increased WC consistently predicted risk of death due to any cause as well as major causes of death, including deaths from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and non-cancer/non-cardiovascular diseases, independent of BMI, age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking status, and alcohol intake. When WC and BMI were mutually adjusted in a model, WC was related to 1.37 fold increased risk of death from any cancer and 1.82 fold increase risk of death from cardiovascular disease, comparing the highest versus lowest WC categories. Importantly, WC, but not BMI showed statistically significant positive associations with deaths from lung cancer and chronic respiratory disease. Participants in the highest versus lowest WC category had a relative risk of death from lung cancer of 1.77 (95% CI, 1.41 to 2.23 and of death from chronic respiratory disease of 2.77 (95% CI, 1.95 to 3.95. In contrast, subjects in the highest versus lowest BMI category had a relative risk of death from lung cancer of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.75 to 1.17 and of death from chronic respiratory disease of 1.18 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.56.Increased abdominal fat measured by WC was related to a higher risk of deaths from major specific causes, including deaths from lung cancer and chronic respiratory disease, independent of BMI.

  2. Regression trees for predicting mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: What improvement is achieved by using ensemble-based methods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tu, Jack V

    2012-01-01

    In biomedical research, the logistic regression model is the most commonly used method for predicting the probability of a binary outcome. While many clinical researchers have expressed an enthusiasm for regression trees, this method may have limited accuracy for predicting health outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the improvement that is achieved by using ensemble-based methods, including bootstrap aggregation (bagging) of regression trees, random forests, and boosted regression trees. We analyzed 30-day mortality in two large cohorts of patients hospitalized with either acute myocardial infarction (N = 16,230) or congestive heart failure (N = 15,848) in two distinct eras (1999–2001 and 2004–2005). We found that both the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction of ensemble methods offered substantial improvement in predicting cardiovascular mortality compared to conventional regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression models that incorporated restricted cubic smoothing splines had even better performance. We conclude that ensemble methods from the data mining and machine learning literature increase the predictive performance of regression trees, but may not lead to clear advantages over conventional logistic regression models for predicting short-term mortality in population-based samples of subjects with cardiovascular disease. PMID:22777999

  3. Signal extraction and wave field separation in tunnel seismic prediction by independent component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Y.; Jiang, T.; Zhou, Q.

    2017-12-01

    In order to ensure the rationality and the safety of tunnel excavation, the advanced geological prediction has been become an indispensable step in tunneling. However, the extraction of signal and the separation of P and S waves directly influence the accuracy of geological prediction. Generally, the raw data collected in TSP system is low quality because of the numerous disturb factors in tunnel projects, such as the power interference and machine vibration interference. It's difficult for traditional method (band-pass filtering) to remove interference effectively as well as bring little loss to signal. The power interference, machine vibration interference and the signal are original variables and x, y, z component as observation signals, each component of the representation is a linear combination of the original variables, which satisfy applicable conditions of independent component analysis (ICA). We perform finite-difference simulations of elastic wave propagation to synthetic a tunnel seismic reflection record. The method of ICA was adopted to process the three-component data, and the results show that extract the estimates of signal and the signals are highly correlated (the coefficient correlation is up to more than 0.93). In addition, the estimates of interference that separated from ICA and the interference signals are also highly correlated, and the coefficient correlation is up to more than 0.99. Thus, simulation results showed that the ICA is an ideal method for extracting high quality data from mixed signals. For the separation of P and S waves, the conventional separation techniques are based on physical characteristics of wave propagation, which require knowledge of the near-surface P and S waves velocities and density. Whereas the ICA approach is entirely based on statistical differences between P and S waves, and the statistical technique does not require a priori information. The concrete results of the wave field separation will be presented in

  4. A modified Elixhauser score for predicting in-hospital mortality in internal medicine admissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabbian, Fabio; De Giorgi, Alfredo; Maietti, Elisa; Gallerani, Massimo; Pala, Marco; Cappadona, Rosaria; Manfredini, Roberto; Fedeli, Ugo

    2017-05-01

    In-hospital mortality (IHM) is an indicator of the quality of care provided. The two most widely used scores for predicting IHM by International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes are the Elixhauser (EI) and the Charlson Comorbidity indexes. Our aim was to obtain new measures based on internal medicine ICD codes for the original EI, to detect risk for IHM. This single-center retrospective study included hospital admissions for any cause in the department of internal medicine between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013, recorded in the hospital database. The EI was calculated for evaluation of comorbidity, then we added age, gender and diagnosis of ischemic heart disease. IHM was our outcome. Only predictors positively associated with IHM were taken into consideration and the Sullivan's method was applied in order to modify the parameter estimates of the regression model into an index. We analyzed 75,586 admissions (53.4% females) and mean age was 72.7±16.3years. IHM was 7.9% and mean score was 12.1±7.6. The points assigned to each condition ranged from 0 to 16, and the possible range of the score varied between 0 and 89. In our population the score ranged from 0 to 54, and it was higher in the deceased group. Receiver operating characteristic curve of the new score was 0.721 (95% CI 0.714-0.727, pInternal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Symptom burden predicts hospitalization independent of comorbidity in community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salanitro, Amanda H; Hovater, Martha; Hearld, Kristine R; Roth, David L; Sawyer, Patricia; Locher, Julie L; Bodner, Eric; Brown, Cynthia J; Allman, Richard M; Ritchie, Christine S

    2012-09-01

    To determine whether cumulative symptom burden predicts hospitalization or emergency department (ED) visits in a cohort of older adults. Prospective, observational study with a baseline in-home assessment of symptom burden. Central Alabama. Nine hundred eighty community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older (mean 75.3 ± 6.7) recruited from a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries stratified according to sex, race, and urban/rural residence. Symptom burden score (range 0-10). One point was given for each symptom reported: shortness of breath, tiredness or fatigue, problems with balance or dizziness, leg weakness, poor appetite, pain, stiffness, constipation, anxiety, and loss of interest in activities. Dependent variables were hospitalizations and ED visits, assessed every 6 months during the 8.5-year follow-up period. Using Cox proportional hazards models, time from the baseline in-home assessment to the first hospitalization and first hospitalization or ED visit was determined. During the 8.5-year follow-up period, 545 (55.6%) participants were hospitalized or had an ED visit. Participants with greater symptom burden had higher risk of hospitalization (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-1.14) and hospitalization or ED visit (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.06-1.14) than those with lower scores. Participants living in rural areas had significantly lower risk of hospitalization (HR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.69-0.99) and hospitalization or ED visit (HR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.70-0.95) than individuals in urban areas, independent of symptom burden and comorbidity. Greater symptom burden was associated with higher risk of hospitalization and ED visits in community-dwelling older adults. Healthcare providers treating older adults should consider symptom burden to be an additional risk factor for subsequent hospital utilization. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

  6. Self-perceived quality of life predicts mortality risk better than a multi-biomarker panel, but the combination of both does best

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nauck Matthias

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Associations between measures of subjective health and mortality risk have previously been shown. We assessed the impact and comparative predictive performance of a multi-biomarker panel on this association. Methods Data from 4,261 individuals aged 20-79 years recruited for the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania was used. During an average 9.7 year follow-up, 456 deaths (10.7% occurred. Subjective health was assessed by SF-12 derived physical (PCS-12 and mental component summaries (MCS-12, and a single-item self-rated health (SRH question. We implemented Cox proportional-hazards regression models to investigate the association of subjective health with mortality and to assess the impact of a combination of 10 biomarkers on this association. Variable selection procedures were used to identify a parsimonious set of subjective health measures and biomarkers, whose predictive ability was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves, C-statistics, and reclassification methods. Results In age- and gender-adjusted Cox models, poor SRH (hazard ratio (HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.34-3.20 and low PCS-12 scores (lowest vs. highest quartile: HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31-2.33 were significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality; an association independent of various covariates and biomarkers. Furthermore, selected subjective health measures yielded a significantly higher C-statistic (0.883 compared to the selected biomarker panel (0.872, whereas a combined assessment showed the highest C-statistic (0.887 with a highly significant integrated discrimination improvement of 1.5% (p Conclusion Adding biomarker information did not affect the association of subjective health measures with mortality, but significantly improved risk stratification. Thus, a combined assessment of self-reported subjective health and measured biomarkers may be useful to identify high-risk individuals for intensified monitoring.

  7. Charlson comorbidity index derived from chart review or administrative data: agreement and prediction of mortality in intensive care patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavem K

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Knut Stavem,1–3 Henrik Hoel,4 Stein Arve Skjaker,5 Rolf Haagensen6 1Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, 2Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Medical Division, 3Health Services Research Unit, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, 4Department of Surgery, Sykehuset Innlandet Kongsvinger, Kongsvinger, 5Section of Orthopaedic Emergency, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, 6Department of Anaesthesiology, Surgical Division, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, Norway Purpose: This study compared the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI information derived from chart review and administrative systems to assess the completeness and agreement between scores, evaluate the capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality in intensive care unit (ICU patients, and compare the predictive capacity with that of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II model.Patients and methods: Using data from 959 patients admitted to a general ICU in a Norwegian university hospital from 2007 to 2009, we compared the CCI score derived from chart review and administrative systems. Agreement was assessed using % agreement, kappa, and weighted kappa. The capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality was assessed using logistic regression, model discrimination with the c-statistic, and calibration with a goodness-of-fit statistic.Results: The CCI was complete (n=959 when calculated from chart than from administrative data (n=839. Agreement was good, with a weighted kappa of 0.667 (95% confidence interval: 0.596–0.714. The c-statistics for categorized CCI scores from charts and administrative data were similar in the model that included age, sex, and type of admission: 0.755 and 0.743 for 30-day mortality, respectively, and 0.783 and 0.775, respectively, for 1-year mortality. Goodness-of-fit statistics supported the model fit.Conclusion: The CCI scores from chart review and administrative data showed good agreement

  8. Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better

  9. Comparison of Two Predictive Models for Short-Term Mortality in Patients after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesmarky, Klara; Delhumeau, Cecile; Zenobi, Marie; Walder, Bernhard

    2017-07-15

    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region (HAIS) are validated prognostic factors in traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic performance of an alternative predictive model including motor GCS, pupillary reactivity, age, HAIS, and presence of multi-trauma for short-term mortality with a reference predictive model including motor GCS, pupil reaction, and age (IMPACT core model). A secondary analysis of a prospective epidemiological cohort study in Switzerland including patients after severe TBI (HAIS >3) with the outcome death at 14 days was performed. Performance of prediction, accuracy of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]), calibration, and validity of the two predictive models were investigated. The cohort included 808 patients (median age, 56; interquartile range, 33-71), median GCS at hospital admission 3 (3-14), abnormal pupil reaction 29%, with a death rate of 29.7% at 14 days. The alternative predictive model had a higher accuracy of discrimination to predict death at 14 days than the reference predictive model (AUROC 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.824-0.880 vs. AUROC 0.826, 95% CI 0.795-0.857; p predictive model had an equivalent calibration, compared with the reference predictive model Hosmer-Lemeshow p values (Chi2 8.52, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.345 vs. Chi2 8.66, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.372). The optimism-corrected value of AUROC for the alternative predictive model was 0.845. After severe TBI, a higher performance of prediction for short-term mortality was observed with the alternative predictive model, compared with the reference predictive model.

  10. Comparison of early thallium-201 scintigraphy and gated blood pool imaging for predicting mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, L.C.; Silverman, K.J.; Bulkley, B.H.; Kallman, C.H.; Mellits, E.D.; Weisfeldt, M.

    1983-01-01

    The extent of abnormality in early thallium-201 and gated cardiac blood pool scintigrams has been reported to be useful for predicting mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). To compare the two techniques, 91 patients admitted consecutively with evident or strongly suspected AMI underwent both imaging studies within 15 hours of the onset of symptoms. Patients with pulmonary edema or shock were excluded. AMI developed in 84% of patients, and 6-month mortality for the entire group was 16%. A thallium defect score of 7.0 or greater identified a subgroup of 14 patients with 64% 6-month mortality rate. Similarly, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35% or less identified a high-risk subgroup of 10 patients with a 6-month mortality of 60%. Mortality in the remaining patients was 8% for thallium score less than 7 and 11% for ejection fraction greater than 35%. The mortality rate was highest among patients who had concordant high-risk scintigrams (five of six, 83%), lowest in those with concordant low-risk studies (five of 64, 8%) and intermediate in those with discordant results (four of 11, 36%). Of a number of clinical variables, only the appearance of Q waves, peak creatine kinase greater than 1000 IU/I, and history of infarction were significantly associated with mortality. High-risk thallium or blood pool scintigraphic results were significantly more predictive and a thallium score of 7 or greater was more sensitive for detecting nonsurvivors than ejection fraction 35% or less at a similar level of specificity

  11. A predictive model for early mortality after surgical treatment of heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis. The EndoSCORE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Mauro, Michele; Dato, Guglielmo Mario Actis; Barili, Fabio; Gelsomino, Sandro; Santè, Pasquale; Corte, Alessandro Della; Carrozza, Antonio; Ratta, Ester Della; Cugola, Diego; Galletti, Lorenzo; Devotini, Roger; Casabona, Riccardo; Santini, Francesco; Salsano, Antonio; Scrofani, Roberto; Antona, Carlo; Botta, Luca; Russo, Claudio; Mancuso, Samuel; Rinaldi, Mauro; De Vincentiis, Carlo; Biondi, Andrea; Beghi, Cesare; Cappabianca, Giangiuseppe; Tarzia, Vincenzo; Gerosa, Gino; De Bonis, Michele; Pozzoli, Alberto; Nicolini, Francesco; Benassi, Filippo; Rosato, Francesco; Grasso, Elena; Livi, Ugolino; Sponga, Sandro; Pacini, Davide; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; De Martino, Andrea; Bortolotti, Uberto; Onorati, Francesco; Faggian, Giuseppe; Lorusso, Roberto; Vizzardi, Enrico; Di Giammarco, Gabriele; Marinelli, Daniele; Villa, Emmanuel; Troise, Giovanni; Picichè, Marco; Musumeci, Francesco; Paparella, Domenico; Margari, Vito; Tritto, Francesco; Damiani, Girolamo; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Zaccaria, Salvatore; Renzulli, Attilio; Serraino, Giuseppe; Mariscalco, Giovanni; Maselli, Daniele; Foschi, Massimiliano; Parolari, Alessandro; Nappi, Giannantonio

    2017-08-15

    The aim of this large retrospective study was to provide a logistic risk model along an additive score to predict early mortality after surgical treatment of patients with heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis (IE). From 2000 to 2015, 2715 patients with native valve endocarditis (NVE) or prosthesis valve endocarditis (PVE) were operated on in 26 Italian Cardiac Surgery Centers. The relationship between early mortality and covariates was evaluated with logistic mixed effect models. Fixed effects are parameters associated with the entire population or with certain repeatable levels of experimental factors, while random effects are associated with individual experimental units (centers). Early mortality was 11.0% (298/2715); At mixed effect logistic regression the following variables were found associated with early mortality: age class, female gender, LVEF, preoperative shock, COPD, creatinine value above 2mg/dl, presence of abscess, number of treated valve/prosthesis (with respect to one treated valve/prosthesis) and the isolation of Staphylococcus aureus, Fungus spp., Pseudomonas Aeruginosa and other micro-organisms, while Streptococcus spp., Enterococcus spp. and other Staphylococci did not affect early mortality, as well as no micro-organisms isolation. LVEF was found linearly associated with outcomes while non-linear association between mortality and age was tested and the best model was found with a categorization into four classes (AUC=0.851). The following study provides a logistic risk model to predict early mortality in patients with heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis undergoing surgical treatment, called "The EndoSCORE". Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Observational attachment theory-based parenting measures predict children's attachment narratives independently from social learning theory-based measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matias, Carla; O'Connor, Thomas G; Futh, Annabel; Scott, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Conceptually and methodologically distinct models exist for assessing quality of parent-child relationships, but few studies contrast competing models or assess their overlap in predicting developmental outcomes. Using observational methodology, the current study examined the distinctiveness of attachment theory-based and social learning theory-based measures of parenting in predicting two key measures of child adjustment: security of attachment narratives and social acceptance in peer nominations. A total of 113 5-6-year-old children from ethnically diverse families participated. Parent-child relationships were rated using standard paradigms. Measures derived from attachment theory included sensitive responding and mutuality; measures derived from social learning theory included positive attending, directives, and criticism. Child outcomes were independently-rated attachment narrative representations and peer nominations. Results indicated that Attachment theory-based and Social Learning theory-based measures were modestly correlated; nonetheless, parent-child mutuality predicted secure child attachment narratives independently of social learning theory-based measures; in contrast, criticism predicted peer-nominated fighting independently of attachment theory-based measures. In young children, there is some evidence that attachment theory-based measures may be particularly predictive of attachment narratives; however, no single model of measuring parent-child relationships is likely to best predict multiple developmental outcomes. Assessment in research and applied settings may benefit from integration of different theoretical and methodological paradigms.

  13. The Preoperative Composite Physiologic Index May Predict Mortality in Lung Cancer Patients with Combined Pulmonary Fibrosis and Emphysema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueno, Fumika; Kitaguchi, Yoshiaki; Shiina, Takayuki; Asaka, Shiho; Miura, Kentaro; Yasuo, Masanori; Wada, Yosuke; Yoshizawa, Akihiko; Hanaoka, Masayuki

    2017-01-01

    It remains unclear whether the preoperative pulmonary function parameters and prognostic indices that are indicative of nutritional and immunological status are associated with prognosis in lung cancer patients with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) who have undergone surgery. The aim of this study is to identify prognostic determinants in these patients. The medical records of all patients with lung cancer associated with CPFE who had undergone surgery at Shinshu University Hospital were retrospectively reviewed to obtain clinical data, including the results of preoperative pulmonary function tests and laboratory examinations, chest high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT), and survival. Univariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that a high pathological stage of the lung cancer, a higher preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen level, and a higher preoperative composite physiologic index (CPI) were associated with a high risk of death. Multivariate analysis showed that a high pathological stage of the lung cancer (HR: 1.579; p = 0.0305) and a higher preoperative CPI (HR: 1.034; p = 0.0174) were independently associated with a high risk of death. In contrast, the severity of fibrosis or emphysema on chest HRCT, the individual pulmonary function parameters, the prognostic nutritional index, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio were not associated with prognosis. In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, the log-rank test showed significant differences in survival between the high-CPI and the low-CPI group (p = 0.0234). The preoperative CPI may predict mortality and provide more powerful prognostic information than individual pulmonary function parameters in lung cancer patients with CPFE who have undergone surgery. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  14. The Surgical Mortality Probability Model: derivation and validation of a simple risk prediction rule for noncardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glance, Laurent G; Lustik, Stewart J; Hannan, Edward L; Osler, Turner M; Mukamel, Dana B; Qian, Feng; Dick, Andrew W

    2012-04-01

    To develop a 30-day mortality risk index for noncardiac surgery that can be used to communicate risk information to patients and guide clinical management at the "point-of-care," and that can be used by surgeons and hospitals to internally audit their quality of care. Clinicians rely on the Revised Cardiac Risk Index to quantify the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Because mortality from noncardiac causes accounts for many perioperative deaths, there is also a need for a simple bedside risk index to predict 30-day all-cause mortality after noncardiac surgery. Retrospective cohort study of 298,772 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery during 2005 to 2007 using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. The 9-point S-MPM (Surgical Mortality Probability Model) 30-day mortality risk index was derived empirically and includes three risk factors: ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) physical status, emergency status, and surgery risk class. Patients with ASA physical status I, II, III, IV or V were assigned either 0, 2, 4, 5, or 6 points, respectively; intermediate- or high-risk procedures were assigned 1 or 2 points, respectively; and emergency procedures were assigned 1 point. Patients with risk scores less than 5 had a predicted risk of mortality less than 0.50%, whereas patients with a risk score of 5 to 6 had a risk of mortality between 1.5% and 4.0%. Patients with a risk score greater than 6 had risk of mortality more than 10%. S-MPM exhibited excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.897) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 13.0, P = 0.023) in the validation data set. Thirty-day mortality after noncardiac surgery can be accurately predicted using a simple and accurate risk score based on information readily available at the bedside. This risk index may play a useful role in facilitating shared decision making, developing and implementing risk

  15. Mastication and prescribed fire influences on tree mortality and predicted fire behavior in ponderosa pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alicia L. Reiner; Nicole M. Vaillant; Scott N. Dailey

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide land managers with information on potential wildfire behavior and tree mortality associated with mastication and masticated/fire treatments in a plantation. Additionally, the effect of pulling fuels away from tree boles before applying fire treatment was studied in relation to tree mortality. Fuel characteristics and tree...

  16. MR-proANP improves prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with STEMI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Søren; Jensen, Jan Skov; Pedersen, Sune H

    2015-01-01

    drawn immediately before PCI. Plasma MR-proANP was measured using an automated processing assay. Endpoints were all-cause mortality (n = 137) and the combined endpoint (n = 170) of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as cardiovascular mortality and admission due to recurrent MI, ischaemic...

  17. Simple motor tasks independently predict extubation failure in critically ill neurological patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutchak, Fernanda Machado; Rieder, Marcelo de Mello; Victorino, Josué Almeida; Meneguzzi, Carla; Poersch, Karla; Forgiarini, Luiz Alberto; Bianchin, Marino Muxfeldt

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of simple motor tasks such as hand grasping and tongue protrusion as predictors of extubation failure in critically ill neurological patients. This was a prospective cohort study conducted in the neurological ICU of a tertiary care hospital in the city of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Adult patients who had been intubated for neurological reasons and were eligible for weaning were included in the study. The ability of patients to perform simple motor tasks such as hand grasping and tongue protrusion was evaluated as a predictor of extubation failure. Data regarding duration of mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay, length of hospital stay, mortality, and incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia were collected. A total of 132 intubated patients who had been receiving mechanical ventilation for at least 24 h and who passed a spontaneous breathing trial were included in the analysis. Logistic regression showed that patient inability to grasp the hand of the examiner (relative risk = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.01-2.44; p commands is predictive of extubation failure in critically ill neurological patients. Hand grasping and tongue protrusion on command might be quick and easy bedside tests to identify neurocritical care patients who are candidates for extubation. Avaliar a utilidade de tarefas motoras simples, tais como preensão de mão e protrusão da língua, para predizer extubação malsucedida em pacientes neurológicos críticos. Estudo prospectivo de coorte realizado na UTI neurológica de um hospital terciário em Porto Alegre (RS). Pacientes adultos que haviam sido intubados por motivos neurológicos e que eram candidatos ao desmame foram incluídos no estudo. O estudo avaliou se a capacidade dos pacientes de realizar tarefas motoras simples como apertar as mãos do examinador e pôr a língua para fora seria um preditor de extubação malsucedida. Foram coletados dados referentes ao tempo de ventilação mecânica, tempo de internação na

  18. Postsystolic Shortening by Speckle Tracking Echocardiography Is an Independent Predictor of Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in the General Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brainin, Philip; Biering-Sørensen, Sofie Reumert; Møgelvang, Rasmus

    2018-01-01

    ). The secondary end point was all-cause death. The postsystolic index (PSI) was defined as follows: [(maximum strain in cardiac cycle-peak systolic strain)/(maximum strain in cardiac cycle)]×100. PSS was regarded as present if PSI >20%. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 149 participants (12%) were diagnosed...... as having MACEs and 236 participants (18%) died. Increasing number of walls with PSS predicted both end points, an association that persisted after adjustment for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, global longitudinal strain, hypertension, heart rate, left ventricular ejection fraction, LV mass...... index, pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, previous ischemic heart disease, systolic blood pressure, average peak early diastolic longitudinal mitral annular velocity (e'), ratio between peak transmitral early and late diastolic inflow velocity (E/A), and left atrial volume index: MACEs (hazard ratio, 1...

  19. Postsystolic Shortening by Speckle Tracking Echocardiography Is an Independent Predictor of Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in the General Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brainin, Philip; Biering-Sørensen, Sofie Reumert; Møgelvang, Rasmus

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Postsystolic shortening (PSS) has been proposed as a novel marker of contractile dysfunction in the myocardium. Our objective was to assess the prognostic potential of PSS on cardiovascular events and death in the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study design consisted...... of a prospective cohort study of 1296 low-risk participants from the general population, who were examined by speckle tracking echocardiography. The primary end point was the composite of heart failure, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death, defined as major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs...... as having MACEs and 236 participants (18%) died. Increasing number of walls with PSS predicted both end points, an association that persisted after adjustment for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, global longitudinal strain, hypertension, heart rate, left ventricular ejection fraction, LV mass...

  20. Validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru (June 2012-December 2013)

    OpenAIRE

    Cassana, Alessandra; Scialom, Silvia; Segura, Eddy R.; Chacaltana, Alfonso

    2015-01-01

    Background and aim: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a major cause of hospitalization and the most prevalent emergency worldwide, with a mortality rate of up to 14%. In Peru, there have not been any studies on the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study is to perform an external validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System and to establish the best cutoff for predicting mortality in upper gastrointest...

  1. Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koethe, John R.; Blevins, Meridith; Nyirenda, Christopher K.; Kabagambe, Edmond K.; Chiasera, Janelle M.; Shepherd, Bryan E.; Zulu, Isaac; Heimburger, Douglas C.

    2013-01-01

    Background. Low body mass index (BMI) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L). Among the 145 participants with BMI refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed. PMID:23691292

  2. Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

    2016-02-01

    Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  3. Mesh Independent Probabilistic Residual Life Prediction of Metallic Airframe Structures, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Engineering and Materials, Inc. (GEM) along with its team members, Clarkson University and LM Aero, propose to develop a mesh independent probabilistic...

  4. Identification of a robust gene signature that predicts breast cancer outcome in independent data sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korkola, James E; Waldman, Frederic M; Blaveri, Ekaterina; DeVries, Sandy; Moore, Dan H II; Hwang, E Shelley; Chen, Yunn-Yi; Estep, Anne LH; Chew, Karen L; Jensen, Ronald H

    2007-01-01

    Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, presenting with a wide range of histologic, clinical, and genetic features. Microarray technology has shown promise in predicting outcome in these patients. We profiled 162 breast tumors using expression microarrays to stratify tumors based on gene expression. A subset of 55 tumors with extensive follow-up was used to identify gene sets that predicted outcome. The predictive gene set was further tested in previously published data sets. We used different statistical methods to identify three gene sets associated with disease free survival. A fourth gene set, consisting of 21 genes in common to all three sets, also had the ability to predict patient outcome. To validate the predictive utility of this derived gene set, it was tested in two published data sets from other groups. This gene set resulted in significant separation of patients on the basis of survival in these data sets, correctly predicting outcome in 62–65% of patients. By comparing outcome prediction within subgroups based on ER status, grade, and nodal status, we found that our gene set was most effective in predicting outcome in ER positive and node negative tumors. This robust gene selection with extensive validation has identified a predictive gene set that may have clinical utility for outcome prediction in breast cancer patients

  5. Depressive symptoms predict cognitive decline and dementia in older people independently of cerebral white matter changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verdelho, Ana; Madureira, Sofia; Moleiro, Carla

    2013-01-01

    Depressive symptoms (DS) have been associated with increased risk of cognitive decline. Our aim was to evaluate the longitudinal influence of DS on cognition in independent older people, accounting for the severity of white matter changes (WMC).......Depressive symptoms (DS) have been associated with increased risk of cognitive decline. Our aim was to evaluate the longitudinal influence of DS on cognition in independent older people, accounting for the severity of white matter changes (WMC)....

  6. Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro, Ana; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bosetti, Cristina; Bertuccio, Paola; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Predictive factors for achieving independent walking in children with Guillain-Barre syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzegar, Mohammad; Toopchizadeh, Vahideh; Maher, Mohammad H K; Sadeghi, Paria; Jahanjoo, Fatemeh; Pishgahi, Alireza

    2017-08-01

    BackgroundTo determine the predictors of achieving independent walking at 2 and 6 months after onset of weakness in children with Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS).MethodsChildren with GBS admitted to the Tabriz Children's Hospital were studied prospectively. All patients had frequent clinical evaluations until achieving independent walking. Unaided walking at 2 and 6 months and factors influencing these outcomes were determined using both univariate and multiple analyses.ResultsBetween 2003 and 2014, 324 children (mean age: 5.3±3.66 years) were admitted. The mean duration to independent walking was 2.97±3.02 months; 90.5% of patients could walk independently at 6 months. In the univariate analysis, disability score of >3 (P=0.03), autonomic nerve involvement (P=0.003), cranial nerve involvement (P=0.008), and absent compound muscle action potential (CMAP; P=0.048) were found to be significantly associated with poor walking outcome at 6 months. In the multivariate analysis, cranial nerve involvement (P=0.008) and absence of CMAP (P=0.022) were independently associated with poor functional outcome.ConclusionDisability score >3, cranial and autonomic nerve involvement, and absence of CMAP were predictors of independent walking in childhood GBS in this study; early rehabilitation program may prevent further impairments secondary to immobility in these patients.

  8. Interrelation and independence of positive and negative psychological constructs in predicting general treatment adherence in coronary artery patients - Results from the THORESCI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Montfort, Eveline; Denollet, Johan; Widdershoven, Jos; Kupper, Nina

    2016-09-01

    In cardiac patients, positive psychological factors have been associated with improved medical and psychological outcomes. The current study examined the interrelation between and independence of multiple positive and negative psychological constructs. Furthermore, the potential added predictive value of positive psychological functioning regarding the prediction of patients' treatment adherence and participation in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) was investigated. 409 percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients were included (mean age = 65.6 ± 9.5; 78% male). Self-report questionnaires were administered one month post-PCI. Positive psychological constructs included positive affect (GMS) and optimism (LOT-R); negative constructs were depression (PHQ-9, BDI), anxiety (GAD-7) and negative affect (GMS). Six months post-PCI self-reported general adherence (MOS) and CR participation were determined. Factor Analysis (Oblimin rotation) revealed two components (r = − 0.56), reflecting positive and negative psychological constructs. Linear regression analyses showed that in unadjusted analyses both optimism and positive affect were associated with better general treatment adherence at six months (p psychological constructs (i.e. optimism) may be of incremental value to negative psychological constructs in predicting patients' treatment adherence. A more complete view of a patients' psychological functioning will open new avenues for treatment. Additional research is needed to investigate the relationship between positive psychological factors and other cardiac outcomes, such as cardiac events and mortality.

  9. Development and validation of a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Tom E; Elley, C Raina; Kenealy, Tim; Drury, Paul L

    2015-06-01

    Type 2 diabetes is common and is associated with an approximate 80% increase in the rate of mortality. Management decisions may be assisted by an estimate of the patient's absolute risk of adverse outcomes, including death. This study aimed to derive a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes. We used primary care data from a large national multi-ethnic cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes in New Zealand and linked mortality records to develop a predictive risk model for 5-year risk of mortality. We then validated this model using information from a separate cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. 26,864 people were included in the development cohort with a median follow up time of 9.1 years. We developed three models initially using demographic information and then progressively more clinical detail. The final model, which also included markers of renal disease, proved to give best prediction of all-cause mortality with a C-statistic of 0.80 in the development cohort and 0.79 in the validation cohort (7610 people) and was well calibrated. Ethnicity was a major factor with hazard ratios of 1.37 for indigenous Maori, 0.41 for East Asian and 0.55 for Indo Asian compared with European (P<0.001). We have developed a model using information usually available in primary care that provides good assessment of patient's risk of death. Results are similar to models previously published from smaller cohorts in other countries and apply to a wider range of patient ethnic groups. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  10. Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Koethe

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Low body mass index (BMI at antiretroviral therapy (ART initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L. Among the 145 participants with BMI <18.5 kg/m2, 28 (19% died within 12 weeks. Lower pretreatment serum phosphate was associated with increased mortality (odds ratio (OR 1.24 per 0.1 mmol/L decrement, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.47; P=0.01 after adjusting for sex, age, and CD4+ lymphocyte count. A similar relationship was not observed among participants with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2 (OR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.21; P=0.74. Conclusions. The association of low pretreatment serum phosphate level and early ART mortality among undernourished individuals may represent a variant of the refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed.

  11. Functional Independence in Late-Life: Maintaining Physical Functioning in Older Adulthood Predicts Daily Life Function after Age 80.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Leslie; Leng, Xiaoyan; La Monte, Michael J; Tindle, Hilary A; Cochrane, Barbara B; Shumaker, Sally A

    2016-03-01

    We examined physical functioning (PF) trajectories (maintaining, slowly declining, and rapidly declining) spanning 15 years in older women aged 65-80 and protective factors that predicted better current levels and less decline in functional independence outcomes after age 80. Women's Health Initiative extension participants who met criteria (enrolled in either the clinical trial or observational study cohort, >80 years at the data release cutoff, PF survey data from initial enrollment to age 80, and functional independence survey data after age 80) were included in these analyses (mean [SD] age = 84.0 [1.4] years; N = 10,478). PF was measured with the SF-36 (mean = 4.9 occasions). Functional independence was measured by self-reported level of dependence in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs and IADLs) (mean = 3.4 and 3.3 occasions). Maintaining consistent PF in older adulthood extends functional independence in ADL and IADL in late-life. Protective factors shared by ADL and IADL include maintaining PF over time, self-reported excellent or very good health, no history of hip fracture after age 55, and no history of cardiovascular disease. Better IADL function is uniquely predicted by a body mass index less than 25 and no depression. Less ADL and IADL decline is predicted by better self-reported health, and less IADL decline is uniquely predicted by having no history of hip fracture after age 55. Maintaining or improving PF and preventing injury and disease in older adulthood (ages 65-80) has far-reaching implications for improving late-life (after age 80) functional independence. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy Predicts All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients With End-Stage Renal Failure: A 5-Year Prospective Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios Doulgerakis

    2017-07-01

    Discussion: Age and presence of CAN are independent predictors of all-cause and CV mortality in patients with ESRF. The functionality of the cardiac autonomic nervous system activity can be used for the risk stratification in patients with ESRF.

  13. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: The density HRV parameter Dyx is a new heart rate variability (HRV) measure based on multipole analysis of the Poincaré plot obtained from RR interval time series, deriving information from both the time and frequency domain. Preliminary results have suggested that the parameter may provide...... new predictive information on mortality in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). This study compares the prognostic significance of Dyx to that of traditional linear and nonlinear measures of HRV. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Nordic ICD pilot study, patients with an acute MI were screened...... with 2D echocardiography and 24-hour Holter recordings. The study was designed to assess the power of several HRV measures to predict mortality. Dyx was tested in a subset of 206 consecutive Danish patients with analysable Holter recordings. After a median follow-up of 8.5 years 70 patients had died...

  14. Music therapy-induced changes in salivary cortisol level are predictive of cardiovascular mortality in patients under maintenance hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Yi-Chou; Lin, Yen-Ju; Lu, Kuo-Cheng; Chiang, Han-Sun; Chang, Chia-Chi; Yang, Li-King

    2017-01-01

    Music therapy has been applied in hemodialysis (HD) patients for relieving mental stress. Whether the stress-relieving effect by music therapy is predictive of clinical outcome in HD patients is still unclear. We recruited a convenience sample of 99 patients on maintenance HD and randomly assigned them to the experimental (n=49) or control (n=50) group. The experimental group received relaxing music therapy for 1 week, whereas the control group received no music therapy. In the experimental group, we compared cardiovascular mortality in the patients with and without cortisol changes. The salivary cortisol level was lowered after 1 week of music therapy in the experimental group (-2.41±3.08 vs 1.66±2.11 pg/mL, P 0.6 pg/mL (83.8% vs 63.6%, P predict cardiovascular mortality in patients under maintenance HD.

  15. The predictive value of current haemoglobin levels for incident tuberculosis and/or mortality during long-term antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerkhoff, Andrew D; Wood, Robin; Cobelens, Frank G; Gupta-Wright, Ankur; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Lawn, Stephen D

    2015-04-02

    Low haemoglobin concentrations may be predictive of incident tuberculosis (TB) and death in HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), but data are limited and inconsistent. We examined these relationships retrospectively in a long-term South African ART cohort with multiple time-updated haemoglobin measurements. Prospectively collected clinical data on patients receiving ART for up to 8 years in a community-based cohort were analysed. Time-updated haemoglobin concentrations, CD4 counts and HIV viral loads were recorded, and TB diagnoses and deaths from all causes were ascertained. Anaemia severity was classified using World Health Organization criteria. TB incidence and mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to identify independent predictors of incident TB and mortality, respectively. During a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR, 2.5-5.8) of 1,521 patients, 476 cases of incident TB and 192 deaths occurred during 6,459 person-years (PYs) of follow-up. TB incidence rates were strongly associated with time-updated anaemia severity; those without anaemia had a rate of 4.4 (95%CI, 3.8-5.1) cases/100 PYs compared to 10.0 (95%CI, 8.3-12.1), 26.6 (95%CI, 22.5-31.7) and 87.8 (95%CI, 57.0-138.2) cases/100 PYs in those with mild, moderate and severe anaemia, respectively. Similarly, mortality rates in those with no anaemia or mild, moderate and severe time-updated anaemia were 1.1 (95%CI, 0.8-1.5), 3.5 (95%CI, 2.7-4.8), 11.8 (95%CI, 9.5-14.8) and 28.2 (95%CI, 16.5-51.5) cases/100 PYs, respectively. Moderate and severe anaemia (time-updated) during ART were the strongest independent predictors for incident TB (adjusted IRR = 3.8 [95%CI, 3.0-4.8] and 8.2 [95%CI, 5.3-12.7], respectively) and for mortality (adjusted IRR = 6.0 [95%CI, 3.9-9.2] and adjusted IRR = 8.0 [95%CI, 3.9-16.4], respectively). Increasing severity of anaemia was associated with exceptionally high rates of both incident TB and mortality during

  16. Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

  17. High levels of cynical distrust partly predict premature mortality in middle-aged to ageing men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šmigelskas, Kastytis; Joffė, Roza; Jonynienė, Jolita; Julkunen, Juhani; Kauhanen, Jussi

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of cynical distrust on mortality in middle-aged and aging men. The analysis is based on Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease study, follow-up from 1984 to 2011. Sample consisted of 2682 men, aged 42-61 years at baseline. Data on mortality was provided by the National Death Registry, causes of death were classified by the National Center of Statistics of Finland. Cynical distrust was measured at baseline using Cynical Distrust Scale. Survival analyses were conducted using Cox regression models. In crude estimates after 28 years of follow-up, high cynical distrust was associated with 1.5-1.7 higher hazards for earlier death compared to low cynical distrust. Adjusted for conventional risk factors, high cynical distrust was significantly associated regarding CVD-free men and CVD mortality, while non-CVD mortality in study sample was consistently but not significantly associated. The risk effects were more expressed after 12-20 years rather than in earlier or later follow-up. To conclude, high cynical distrust associates with increased risk of CVD mortality in CVD-free men. The associations with non-CVD mortality are weaker and not reach statistical significance.

  18. Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

    2015-04-01

    We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

  19. Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille Lassale

    Full Text Available Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre was 0.75 (0.72-0.79 to 0.88 (0.84-0.92 for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83 to 0.84 (0.76-0.92 for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83 to 0.91 (0.85-0.97 for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

  20. Echocardiographic findings predict in-hospital and 1-year mortality in left-sided native valve Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Trine K.; Park, Lawrence; Tong, Steven Y C

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus left-sided native valve infective endocarditis (LNVIE) has higher complication and mortality rates compared with endocarditis from other pathogens. Whether echocardiographic variables can predict prognosis in S aureus LNVIE is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS......: Consecutive patients with LNVIE, enrolled between January 2000 and September 2006, in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis were identified. Subjects without S aureus IE were matched to those with S aureus IE by the propensity of having S aureus. Survival differences were determined using log...

  1. Predictive impact on medium-term mortality of hematological parameters in Acute Coronary Syndromes: added value on top of GRACE risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timóteo, Ana T; Papoila, Ana L; Lousinha, Ana; Alves, Marta; Miranda, Fernando; Ferreira, Maria L; Ferreira, Rui C

    2015-04-01

    Red Cell Distribution Width (RDW) prognostic value in patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) has been well validated whereas that of Platelet Distribution Width (PDW) is less well known. Investigate the incremental prognostic value, on top of GRACE risk score, of a new variable resulting from the combination of RDW and PDW. Consecutive patients with ACS. Complete blood count, with RDW and PDW, was obtained. Primary endpoint was one-year all-cause mortality and Cox regression models were used to measure the influence of RDW and PDW on patients' survival time. A new combination categorical variable (RDW/PDW) was created with both discretized RDW and PDW and logistic regression models were used. Predictive value and discriminative ability of the model with GRACE risk score alone and of the model with inclusion of RDW/PDW was assessed. We included 787 patients. Hospital and one-year mortality rates were 5.1% and 7.8%, respectively. Both continuous RDW and PDW were independent predictors of death. The best cut-off for RDW was 13.9%, and 14.5% for PDW. Inclusion of RDW/PDW in a model with GRACE risk score improved the AUC from 0.81 (95% CI 0.75-0.86) to 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.90) (p=0.024) with an improvement in total NRI (56%) and IDI (0.048). Simple markers such as RDW and PDW can be useful in risk stratification of death after ACS. Combining both markers with GRACE risk score improved the predictive value for all-cause mortality and reduced the estimated risk of those who did not die. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  2. The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huber-Wagner S

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006, we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P, prehospital phase (A, early (B1, and late (B2 trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P, logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63. Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82. Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1 showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85. Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2 detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90. The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma

  3. Assessment of performance and utility of mortality prediction models in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathe, Prachee M; Bapat, Sharda N

    2014-01-01

    To assess the performance and utility of two mortality prediction models viz. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit (ICU). Secondary objectives were bench-marking and setting a base line for research. In this observational cohort, data needed for calculation of both scores were prospectively collected for all consecutive admissions to 28-bedded ICU in the year 2011. After excluding readmissions, discharges within 24 h and age <18 years, the records of 1543 patients were analyzed using appropriate statistical methods. Both models overpredicted mortality in this cohort [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) 0.88 ± 0.05 and 0.95 ± 0.06 using APACHE II and SAPS II respectively]. Patterns of predicted mortality had strong association with true mortality (R (2) = 0.98 for APACHE II and R (2) = 0.99 for SAPS II). Both models performed poorly in formal Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing (Chi-square = 12.8 (P = 0.03) for APACHE II, Chi-square = 26.6 (P = 0.001) for SAPS II) but showed good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) and 0.83 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) for APACHE II and SAPS II, respectively). There were wide variations in SMRs calculated for subgroups based on International Classification of Disease, 10(th) edition (standard deviation ± 0.27 for APACHE II and 0.30 for SAPS II). Lack of fit of data to the models and wide variation in SMRs in subgroups put a limitation on utility of these models as tools for assessing quality of care and comparing performances of different units without customization. Considering comparable performance and simplicity of use, efforts should be made to adapt SAPS II.

  4. Comparison of severity of illness scoring systems in the prediction of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crowe Colleen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : New scoring systems, including the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS, the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS score, and the confusion, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, 65 years and older (CURB-65 score, have been developed for emergency department (ED use in various patient populations. Increasing use of early goal directed therapy (EGDT for the emergent treatment of sepsis introduces a growing population of patients in which the accuracy of these scoring systems has not been widely examined. Objectives : To evaluate the ability of the REMS, MEDS score, and CURB-65 score to predict mortality in septic patients treated with modified EGDT. Materials and Methods : Secondary analysis of data from prospectively identified patients treated with modified EGDT in a large tertiary care suburban community hospital with over 85,000 ED visits annually and 700 inpatient beds, from May 2007 through May 2008. We included all patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, who were treated with our modified EGDT protocol. Our major outcome was in-hospital mortality. The performance of the scores was compared by area under the ROC curves (AUCs. Results : A total of 216 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were treated with modified EGDT during the study period. Overall mortality was 32.9%. Calculated AUCs were 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.67-0.81] for the MEDS score, 0.62 (95% CI: 0.54-0.69 for the REMS, and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.51-0.67 for the CURB-65 score. Conclusion : We found that all three ED-based systems for scoring severity of illness had low to moderate predictive capability. The MEDS score demonstrated the largest AUC of the studied scoring systems for the outcome of mortality, although the CIs on point estimates of the AUC of the REMS and CURB-65 scores all overlap.

  5. Index to Predict In-hospital Mortality in Older Adults after Non-traumatic Emergency Department Intubations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kei Ouchi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Our goal was to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality in older adults after non-traumatic emergency department (ED intubations. Methods: We used Vizient administrative data from hospitalizations of 22,374 adults ≥75 years who underwent non-traumatic ED intubation from 2008–2015 at nearly 300 U.S. hospitals to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality. We randomly selected one half of participants for the development cohort and one half for the validation cohort. Considering 25 potential predictors, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to determine factors associated with in-hospital mortality. We calculated risk scores using points derived from the final model’s beta coefficients. To evaluate calibration and discrimination of the final model, we used Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test and receiver-operating characteristic analysis and compared mortality by risk groups in the development and validation cohorts. Results: Death during the index hospitalization occurred in 40% of cases. The final model included six variables: history of myocardial infarction, history of cerebrovascular disease, history of metastatic cancer, age, admission diagnosis of sepsis, and admission diagnosis of stroke/ intracranial hemorrhage. Those with low-risk scores (10 had 58% risk of in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square of the model was 6.47 (p=0.09, and the c-statistic was 0.62 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: The model may be useful in identifying older adults at high risk of death after ED intubation.

  6. Studying morbidity and predicting mortality in patients with blunt chest trauma using a novel clinical score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyadarshini Manay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: A departmental audit in March 2015 revealed significant mortality rate of 40% in blunt chest trauma patients (much greater than the global 25%. A study was thus planned to study morbidity and predictors of mortality in blunt chest trauma patients admitted to our hospital. Methods: This study was a prospective observational study of 139 patients with a history of blunt chest trauma between June 2015 and November 2015 after the Institutional Ethics Committee approval in April 2015. The sample size was calculated from the prevalence rate in our institute from the past medical records. Results: The morbidity factors following blunt chest injuries apart from pain were need for Intensive Care Unit stay, mechanical ventilation, and pneumonia/acute respiratory distress syndrome. Significant predictors of mortality in our study were SpO2 16, and need for mechanical ventilation. By calculating the likelihood ratios of each respiratory sign, a clinical score was devised. Conclusion: The modifiable factors affecting morbidity and mortality were identified. Mild to moderate chest injury due to blunt trauma is difficult to diagnose. The restoration of respiratory physiology has not only significant implications on recovery from chest injury but also all other injuries. It is our sincere hope that the score we have formulated will help reduce mortality and morbidity after further trials.

  7. Prognostic utility of plasma S100A12 levels to establish a novel scoring system for predicting mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients: a two-year prospective observational study in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiotsu Yayoi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background S100A12 protein is an endogenous receptor ligand for advanced glycation end products. In this study, the plasma S100A12 level was assessed as an independent predictor of mortality, and its utility in clinical settings was examined. Methods In a previous cross-sectional study, plasma S100A12 levels were measured in 550 maintenance hemodialysis patients to determine the association between S100A12 and the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD. In this prospective study, the risk of mortality within a two-year period was determined. An integer scoring system was developed to predict mortality on the basis of the plasma S100A12 levels. Results Higher plasma S100A12 levels (≥18.79 ng/mL were more closely associated with higher all-cause mortality than lower plasma S100A12 levels (P = 0.001. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed higher plasma S100A12 levels [hazard ratio (HR, 2.267; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.195–4.302; P = 0.012], age ≥65 years (HR, 1.961; 95%CI, 1.017–3.781; P = 0.044, serum albumin levels P = 0.012, and history of CVD (HR, 2.068; 95%CI, 1.146–3.732; P = 0.016 to be independent predictors of two-year all-cause mortality. The integer score was derived by assigning points to these factors and determining total scores. The scoring system revealed trends across increasing scores for predicting the all-cause mortality [c-statistic = 0.730 (0.656–0.804]. The resulting model demonstrated good discriminative power for distinguishing the validation population of 303 hemodialysis patients [c-statistic = 0.721 (0.627–0.815]. Conclusion The results indicate that plasma S100A12 level is an independent predictor for two-year all-cause mortality. A simple integer scoring system was therefore established for predicting mortality on the basis of plasma S100A12 levels.

  8. Development and Validation of a Deep Neural Network Model for Prediction of Postoperative In-hospital Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Christine K; Hofer, Ira; Gabel, Eilon; Baldi, Pierre; Cannesson, Maxime

    2018-04-17

    The authors tested the hypothesis that deep neural networks trained on intraoperative features can predict postoperative in-hospital mortality. The data used to train and validate the algorithm consists of 59,985 patients with 87 features extracted at the end of surgery. Feed-forward networks with a logistic output were trained using stochastic gradient descent with momentum. The deep neural networks were trained on 80% of the data, with 20% reserved for testing. The authors assessed improvement of the deep neural network by adding American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification and robustness of the deep neural network to a reduced feature set. The networks were then compared to ASA Physical Status, logistic regression, and other published clinical scores including the Surgical Apgar, Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality, Risk Quantification Index, and the Risk Stratification Index. In-hospital mortality in the training and test sets were 0.81% and 0.73%. The deep neural network with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status classification had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). The highest logistic regression area under the curve was found with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status (0.90, 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93). The Risk Stratification Index had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, at 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99). Deep neural networks can predict in-hospital mortality based on automatically extractable intraoperative data, but are not (yet) superior to existing methods.

  9. Personality Predicts Mortality Risk: An Integrative Data Analysis of 15 International Longitudinal Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Eileen K; Rutsohn, Joshua P; Turiano, Nicholas A; Bendayan, Rebecca; Batterham, Philip J; Gerstorf, Denis; Katz, Mindy J; Reynolds, Chandra A; Sharp, Emily S; Yoneda, Tomiko B; Bastarache, Emily D; Elleman, Lorien G; Zelinski, Elizabeth M; Johansson, Boo; Kuh, Diana; Barnes, Lisa L; Bennett, David A; Deeg, Dorly J H; Lipton, Richard B; Pedersen, Nancy L; Piccinin, Andrea M; Spiro, Avron; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Willis, Sherry L; Schaie, K Warner; Roan, Carol; Herd, Pamela; Hofer, Scott M; Mroczek, Daniel K

    2017-10-01

    This study examined the Big Five personality traits as predictors of mortality risk, and smoking as a mediator of that association. Replication was built into the fabric of our design: we used a Coordinated Analysis with 15 international datasets, representing 44,094 participants. We found that high neuroticism and low conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness were consistent predictors of mortality across studies. Smoking had a small mediating effect for neuroticism. Country and baseline age explained variation in effects: studies with older baseline age showed a pattern of protective effects (HReffects for extraversion. This study demonstrated coordinated analysis as a powerful approach to enhance replicability and reproducibility, especially for aging-related longitudinal research.

  10. Insulin Resistance Predicts Mortality in Nondiabetic Individuals in the U.S.

    OpenAIRE

    Ausk, Karlee J.; Boyko, Edward J.; Ioannou, George N.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Insulin resistance is a suspected causative factor in a wide variety of diseases. We aimed to determine whether insulin resistance, estimated by the homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), is associated with all-cause or disease-specific mortality among nondiabetic persons in the U.S. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We determined the association between HOMA-IR and death certificate–based mortality among 5,511 nondiabetic, adult participants of the third U.S. Nati...

  11. Technical Note: Assessing predictive capacity and conditional independence of landslide predisposing factors for shallow landslide susceptibility models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pereira

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to identify the landslide predisposing factors' combination using a bivariate statistical model that best predicts landslide susceptibility. The best model is one that has simultaneously good performance in terms of suitability and predictive power and has been developed using variables that are conditionally independent. The study area is the Santa Marta de Penaguião council (70 km2 located in the Northern Portugal.

    In order to identify the best combination of landslide predisposing factors, all possible combinations using up to seven predisposing factors were performed, which resulted in 120 predictions that were assessed with a landside inventory containing 767 shallow translational slides. The best landslide susceptibility model was selected according to the model degree of fitness and on the basis of a conditional independence criterion. The best model was developed with only three landslide predisposing factors (slope angle, inverse wetness index, and land use and was compared with a model developed using all seven landslide predisposing factors.

    Results showed that it is possible to produce a reliable landslide susceptibility model using fewer landslide predisposing factors, which contributes towards higher conditional independence.

  12. Does shear wave ultrasound independently predict axillary lymph node metastasis in women with invasive breast cancer?

    OpenAIRE

    Evans, Andrew; Rauchhaus, Petra; Whelehan, Patsy; Thomson, Kim; Purdie, Colin A.; Jordan, Lee B.; Michie, Caroline O.; Thompson, Alastair; Vinnicombe, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Shear wave elastography (SWE) shows promise as an adjunct to greyscale ultrasound examination in assessing breast masses. In breast cancer, higher lesion stiffness on SWE has been shown to be associated with features of poor prognosis. The purpose of this study was to assess whether lesion stiffness at SWE is an independent predictor of lymph node involvement. Patients with invasive breast cancer treated by primary surgery, who had undergone SWE examination were eligible. Data were retrospect...

  13. Maternal phenotype, independent of family economic capital, predicts educational attainment in lowland nepalese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marphatia, Akanksha A; Devakumar, Delan; Wells, Jonathan C K; Saville, Naomi; Reid, Alice; Costello, Anthony; Manandhar, Dharma S; Osrin, David

    2016-09-10

    Factors acting before children are born or reach school-going age may explain why some do not complete primary education. Many relevant factors relate to maternal phenotype, but few studies have tested for independent associations of maternal factors relative to those characterizing the family in general. Using data from a longitudinal study of 838 children in Dhanusha, Nepal, we used logistic regression models to test whether indices of maternal somatic and educational capital, or family economic capital, were independently associated with children having had ≤2 versus 3+ years of schooling at a mean age of 8.5 years. We also tested whether maternal age, children's early growth, and urban/rural location mediated such associations. Children had a higher risk of completing less schooling if their mothers were short, thin, anemic, and uneducated. Independently, lower family material assets and land acreage also increased children's odds of less schooling. There was an indication of gender differences, with the risk of poor educational attainment in girls associated with low maternal somatic and educational capital, whereas in boys the relevant factors were low maternal education and family land ownership. Our analysis demonstrates that, independent of broader indices of family capital such as land or material assets, children's educational attainment is associated with factors embodied in maternal phenotype. Both somatic and educational maternal capital appeared important. A composite index of maternal capital could provide a new measurable proxy, prior to school entry, for identifying children at risk of completing fewer years of schooling. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:687-698, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors American Journal of Human Biology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Maternal phenotype, independent of family economic capital, predicts educational attainment in lowland nepalese children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devakumar, Delan; Wells, Jonathan C.K.; Saville, Naomi; Reid, Alice; Costello, Anthony; Manandhar, Dharma S; Osrin, David

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Factors acting before children are born or reach school‐going age may explain why some do not complete primary education. Many relevant factors relate to maternal phenotype, but few studies have tested for independent associations of maternal factors relative to those characterizing the family in general. Methods Using data from a longitudinal study of 838 children in Dhanusha, Nepal, we used logistic regression models to test whether indices of maternal somatic and educational capital, or family economic capital, were independently associated with children having had ≤2 versus 3+ years of schooling at a mean age of 8.5 years. We also tested whether maternal age, children's early growth, and urban/rural location mediated such associations. Results Children had a higher risk of completing less schooling if their mothers were short, thin, anemic, and uneducated. Independently, lower family material assets and land acreage also increased children's odds of less schooling. There was an indication of gender differences, with the risk of poor educational attainment in girls associated with low maternal somatic and educational capital, whereas in boys the relevant factors were low maternal education and family land ownership. Conclusions Our analysis demonstrates that, independent of broader indices of family capital such as land or material assets, children's educational attainment is associated with factors embodied in maternal phenotype. Both somatic and educational maternal capital appeared important. A composite index of maternal capital could provide a new measurable proxy, prior to school entry, for identifying children at risk of completing fewer years of schooling. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:687–698, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27135632

  15. [Cardiac surgery in octogenarian patients: evaluation of predictive factors of mortality, long-term outcome and quality of life].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana-Tejedor, Ana; Domínguez, Francisco J; Moreno Yangüela, Mar; Moreno, Raúl; López de Sá, Esteban; Mesa, José M; López-Sendón, José

    2008-10-04

    Increasing life expectancy in Western countries in the last decades has resulted in a significant gradual increasing number of octogenarians referred for cardiac surgery. There is a need for a critical evaluation of the long-term surgical outcome and quality of life in the elderly. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery and to assess the long term survival and quality of life. Data were reviewed on 150 patients aged over 80 years--mean age (standard deviation): 82.7 (2.5) years--who underwent cardiac surgery at our institution in the last 26 years. We analyzed clinical and epidemiological variables included in the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE), in-hospital morbidity and mortality, long term survival and quality of life after cardiac surgery. The 30-day mortality rate was 30.1%, with a mean hospital stay of 16.5 days (13-27). Emergent procedure, reparation of postinfarction ventricular ruptures, New York Heart Association functional class IV, chronic renal failure and previous myocardial infarction were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Mean follow up was 72.2 (9.9) months with survival rates of 87.3% and 57% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. Late postoperative quality of life in our 53 long-term survivors was significantly better than prior to surgery. New York Heart Association functional class improved from 2.52 to 1.48. Most survivors (97.7%) were satisfied with present quality of life Cardiac surgery in octogenarians is associated with increased in-hospital mortality rate and longer hospital stay. Our findings support that cardiac surgery can be performed in a selected elderly population with good long-term survival and quality of life.

  16. Does shear wave ultrasound independently predict axillary lymph node metastasis in women with invasive breast cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Andrew; Rauchhaus, Petra; Whelehan, Patsy; Thomson, Kim; Purdie, Colin A; Jordan, Lee B; Michie, Caroline O; Thompson, Alastair; Vinnicombe, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    Shear wave elastography (SWE) shows promise as an adjunct to greyscale ultrasound examination in assessing breast masses. In breast cancer, higher lesion stiffness on SWE has been shown to be associated with features of poor prognosis. The purpose of this study was to assess whether lesion stiffness at SWE is an independent predictor of lymph node involvement. Patients with invasive breast cancer treated by primary surgery, who had undergone SWE examination were eligible. Data were retrospectively analysed from 396 consecutive patients. The mean stiffness values were obtained using the Aixplorer® ultrasound machine from SuperSonic Imagine Ltd. Measurements were taken from a region of interest positioned over the stiffest part of the abnormality. The average of the mean stiffness value obtained from each of two orthogonal image planes was used for analysis. Associations between lymph node involvement and mean lesion stiffness, invasive cancer size, histologic grade, tumour type, ER expression, HER-2 status and vascular invasion were assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. At univariate analysis, invasive size, histologic grade, HER-2 status, vascular invasion, tumour type and mean stiffness were significantly associated with nodal involvement. Nodal involvement rates ranged from 7 % for tumours with mean stiffness 150 kPa. At multivariate analysis, invasive size, tumour type, vascular invasion, and mean stiffness maintained independent significance. Mean stiffness at SWE is an independent predictor of lymph node metastasis and thus can confer prognostic information additional to that provided by conventional preoperative tumour assessment and staging.

  17. Predicting the activity coefficients of free-solvent for concentrated globular protein solutions using independently determined physical parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devin W McBride

    Full Text Available The activity coefficient is largely considered an empirical parameter that was traditionally introduced to correct the non-ideality observed in thermodynamic systems such as osmotic pressure. Here, the activity coefficient of free-solvent is related to physically realistic parameters and a mathematical expression is developed to directly predict the activity coefficients of free-solvent, for aqueous protein solutions up to near-saturation concentrations. The model is based on the free-solvent model, which has previously been shown to provide excellent prediction of the osmotic pressure of concentrated and crowded globular proteins in aqueous solutions up to near-saturation concentrations. Thus, this model uses only the independently determined, physically realizable quantities: mole fraction, solvent accessible surface area, and ion binding, in its prediction. Predictions are presented for the activity coefficients of free-solvent for near-saturated protein solutions containing either bovine serum albumin or hemoglobin. As a verification step, the predictability of the model for the activity coefficient of sucrose solutions was evaluated. The predicted activity coefficients of free-solvent are compared to the calculated activity coefficients of free-solvent based on osmotic pressure data. It is observed that the predicted activity coefficients are increasingly dependent on the solute-solvent parameters as the protein concentration increases to near-saturation concentrations.

  18. Ductility prediction of substrate-supported metal layers based on rate-independent crystal plasticity theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akpama Holanyo K.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, both the bifurcation theory and the initial imperfection approach are used to predict localized necking in substrate-supported metal layers. The self-consistent scale-transition scheme is used to derive the mechanical behavior of a representative volume element of the metal layer from the behavior of its microscopic constituents (the single crystals. The mechanical behavior of the elastomer substrate follows the neo-Hookean hyperelastic model. The adherence between the two layers is assumed to be perfect. Through numerical results, it is shown that the limit strains predicted by the initial imperfection approach tend towards the bifurcation predictions when the size of the geometric imperfection in the metal layer vanishes. Also, it is shown that the addition of an elastomer layer to a metal layer enhances ductility.

  19. Prediction of Mortality with A Body Shape Index in Young Asians: Comparison with Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Da-Young; Lee, Mi-Yeon; Sung, Ki-Chul

    2018-06-01

    This paper investigated the impact of A Body Shape Index (ABSI) on the risk of all-cause mortality compared with the impact of waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI). This paper reviewed data of 213,569 Korean adults who participated in health checkups between 2002 and 2012 at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital in Seoul, Korea. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed on the BMI, WC, and ABSI z score continuous variables as well as quintiles. During 1,168,668.7 person-years, 1,107 deaths occurred. As continuous variables, a significant positive relationship with the risk of all-cause death was found only in ABSI z scores after adjustment for age, sex, current smoking, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, presence of diabetes or hypertension, and history of cardiovascular diseases. In Cox analysis of quintiles, quintile 5 of the ABSI z score showed significantly increased hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality risk (HR [95% CI] was 1.32 [1.05-1.66]), whereas the risk for all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased in quintiles 3 through 5 of BMI and WC compared with their first quintiles after adjusting for several confounders. This study showed that the predictive value of ABSI for mortality risk was strong for a sample of young Asian participants and that its usefulness was better than BMI or WC. © 2018 The Obesity Society.

  20. Circulating Endothelial-Derived Activated Microparticle: A Useful Biomarker for Predicting One-Year Mortality in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Chou Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. This study tested the hypothesis that circulating microparticles (MPs are useful biomarkers for predicting one-year mortality in patients with end-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC. Methods and Results. One hundred seven patients were prospectively enrolled into the study between April 2011 and February 2012, and each patient received regular follow-up after enrollment. Levels of four MPs in circulation, (1 platelet-derived activated MPs (PDAc-MPs, (2 platelet-derived apoptotic MPs (PDAp-MPs, (3 endothelial-derived activated MPs (EDAc-MPs, and (4 endothelial-derived apoptotic MPs (EDAp-MPs, were measured just after the patient was enrolled into the study using flow cytometry. Patients who survived for more than one year were categorized into group 1 (n=56 (one-year survivors and patients who survived less than one year were categorized into group 2 (n=51 (one-year nonsurvivors. Male gender, incidence of liver metastasis, progression of disease after first-line treatment, poor performance status, and the Charlson comorbidity index were significantly higher in group 2 than in group 1 (all P<0.05. Additionally, as measured by flow cytometry, only the circulating level of EDAc-MPs was found to be significantly higher in group 2 than in group 1 (P=0.006. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that circulating level of EDAc-MPs along with brain metastasis and male gender significantly and independently predictive of one-year mortality (all P<0.035. Conclusion. Circulating EDAc-MPs may be a useful biomarker predictive of one-year morality in ES-NSCLC patients.

  1. External validation of the Emergency Trauma Score for early prediction of mortality in trauma patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, Pieter; de Jong, Willem-Jan J.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Wendt, Klaus W.; Schep, Niels W.; Goslings, J. Carel

    2014-01-01

    The Emergency Trauma Score has been developed for early estimation of mortality risk in adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Emergency Trauma Score combines four early predictors available at the trauma resuscitation room: age, Glasgow Coma Scale, base excess, and

  2. External Validation of the Emergency Trauma Score for Early Prediction of Mortality in Trauma Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, Pieter; de Jong, Willem-Jan J.; Wendt, Klaus W.; Schep, Niels W.; Goslings, J. Carel; Reitsma, J.

    Objectives: The Emergency Trauma Score has been developed for early estimation of mortality risk in adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Emergency Trauma Score combines four early predictors available at the trauma resuscitation room: age, Glasgow Coma Scale, base

  3. Mortality is predicted by Comorbidity Polypharmacy score but not Charlson Comorbidity Index in geriatric trauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nossaman, Vaughn E; Larsen, Brett E; DiGiacomo, Jody C; Manuelyan, Zara; Afram, Renee; Shukry, Sally; Kang, Amiee Luan; Munnangi, Swapna; Angus, L D George

    2017-09-19

    Increased life expectancy has resulted in more older patients at trauma centers. Traditional assessments of injuries alone may not be sufficient; age, comorbidities, and medications should be considered. 446 older trauma patients were analyzed in two groups, 45-65 years and <65, using Injury Severity Score (ISS), the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and Comorbidity-Polypharmacy Score (CPS). CCI and CPS were associated with HLOS in patients <65. In patients aged 45-65, only CPS was associated with HLOS. CPS was inversely associated with in-hospital mortality in patients <65, but not patients aged 45-65. CCI score was not associated with in-hospital mortality in either group. Increased CCI and CPS were associated with increased HLOS. In patients over 65, increased CPS was associated with decreased mortality. This could be due to return toward physiologic normalcy in treated patients not seen in their peers with undiagnosed or untreated comorbidities. TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY: In an analysis of 446 older trauma patients, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Comorbidity-Polypharmacy Score (CPS) were associated with increased hospital length of stay. In patients ≥65, increased CPS had a lower mortality, possibly due to a greater return toward physiologic normalcy not present in their untreated peers. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk...

  5. The predictive value of fatigue for nonfatal ischemic heart disease and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekmann, Anette; Osler, Merete; Avlund, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    IHD were asked if they felt fatigued. Information on IHD diagnosis and all-cause mortality was register based. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to test the association at 4-year follow-up. Results Fatigue was associated with hospitalization for nonfatal IHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.98, 95...

  6. Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Bosch, W.F.; Kelder, J.C.; Wagner, C.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have

  7. Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch, W.F. van den; Kelder, J.C.; Wagner, C.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have

  8. Macrophage activation markers predict mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis without or with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønbæk, Henning; Rødgaard-Hansen, Sidsel; Aagaard, Niels Kristian

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND & AIMS: Activation of liver macrophages plays a key role in liver and systemic inflammation and may be involved in development and prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We therefore measured the circulating macrophage activation markers soluble sCD163 and mannose receptor......-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD scores. Addition of the macrophage markers to the clinical scores improved the prognostic efficacy: In ACLF patients sCD163 improved prediction of short-term mortality (C-index: 0.74 (0.67-0.80)) and in patients without ACLF sMR improved prediction of long-term mortality (C-index: 0.......80 (0.76-0.85)). CONCLUSIONS: The severity related increase in sCD163 and sMR and close association with mortality suggest a primary importance of inflammatory activation of liver macrophages in the emergence and course of ACLF. Accordingly, supplementation of the macrophage biomarkers to the platform...

  9. Marital status independently predicts gastric cancer survival after surgical resection--an analysis of the SEER database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Rong-Liang; Chen, Qian; Yang, Zhen; Pan, Gaofeng; Zhang, Ziping; Wang, WeiHua; Liu, Shaoqun; Zhang, Dongbin; Jiang, Daowen; Liu, Weiyan

    2016-03-15

    Marital status was found to be an independent prognostic factor for survival in various cancer types, but it hasn't been studied in gastric cancer. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database was used to compare survival outcomes with marital status. A total of 16,106 eligible patients were identified. Patients in the widowed group had the highest proportion of women, more common site of stomach, more prevalence of elderly patients, higher percentage of adenocarcinoma, and more tumors at localized stage (P married group had better 5year cause-specific survival (CSS) than those unmarried (P married patients at Localized stage (77.2% vs 70.1%, P vs 28.6%, P vs 8.6%, P unmarried patients were at greater risk of cancer specific mortality. Despite favorable clinicpathological characteristics, widowed patients were at highest risk of death compared with other groups.

  10. [Risk Prediction Using Routine Data: Development and Validation of Multivariable Models Predicting 30- and 90-day Mortality after Surgical Treatment of Colorectal Cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crispin, Alexander; Strahwald, Brigitte; Cheney, Catherine; Mansmann, Ulrich

    2018-06-04

    Quality control, benchmarking, and pay for performance (P4P) require valid indicators and statistical models allowing adjustment for differences in risk profiles of the patient populations of the respective institutions. Using hospital remuneration data for measuring quality and modelling patient risks has been criticized by clinicians. Here we explore the potential of prediction models for 30- and 90-day mortality after colorectal cancer surgery based on routine data. Full census of a major statutory health insurer. Surgical departments throughout the Federal Republic of Germany. 4283 and 4124 insurants with major surgery for treatment of colorectal cancer during 2013 and 2014, respectively. Age, sex, primary and secondary diagnoses as well as tumor locations as recorded in the hospital remuneration data according to §301 SGB V. 30- and 90-day mortality. Elixhauser comorbidities, Charlson conditions, and Charlson scores were generated from the ICD-10 diagnoses. Multivariable prediction models were developed using a penalized logistic regression approach (logistic ridge regression) in a derivation set (patients treated in 2013). Calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed in an internal validation sample (patients treated in 2014) using calibration curves, Brier scores, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves) and the areas under the ROC curves (AUC). 30- and 90-day mortality rates in the learning-sample were 5.7 and 8.4%, respectively. The corresponding values in the validation sample were 5.9% and once more 8.4%. Models based on Elixhauser comorbidities exhibited the highest discriminatory power with AUC values of 0.804 (95% CI: 0.776 -0.832) and 0.805 (95% CI: 0.782-0.828) for 30- and 90-day mortality. The Brier scores for these models were 0.050 (95% CI: 0.044-0.056) and 0.067 (95% CI: 0.060-0.074) and similar to the models based on Charlson conditions. Regardless of the model, low predicted probabilities were well calibrated, while

  11. Prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the RealAge score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R Hobbs

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called "RealAge" assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: THE REALAGE SCORE IS ACCURATELY SCALED (HAZARD RATIOS: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084 and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847 in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814, perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820. CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.

  12. Comparison of artificial neural network and logistic regression models for predicting in-hospital mortality after primary liver cancer surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since most published articles comparing the performance of artificial neural network (ANN models and logistic regression (LR models for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC outcomes used only a single dataset, the essential issue of internal validity (reproducibility of the models has not been addressed. The study purposes to validate the use of ANN model for predicting in-hospital mortality in HCC surgery patients in Taiwan and to compare the predictive accuracy of ANN with that of LR model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Patients who underwent a HCC surgery during the period from 1998 to 2009 were included in the study. This study retrospectively compared 1,000 pairs of LR and ANN models based on initial clinical data for 22,926 HCC surgery patients. For each pair of ANN and LR models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L statistics and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired T-tests. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and the relative importance of variables. Compared to the LR models, the ANN models had a better accuracy rate in 97.28% of cases, a better H-L statistic in 41.18% of cases, and a better AUROC curve in 84.67% of cases. Surgeon volume was the most influential (sensitive parameter affecting in-hospital mortality followed by age and lengths of stay. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In comparison with the conventional LR model, the ANN model in the study was more accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  13. Basic geriatric assessment does not predict in-hospital mortality after PEG placement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smoliner Christine

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG is an established procedure for long-term nutrition. However, studies have underlined the importance of proper patient selection as mortality has been shown to be relatively high in acute illness and certain patient groups, amongst others geriatric patients. Objective of the study was to gather information about geriatric patients receiving PEG and to identify risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality after PEG placement. Methods All patients from the GEMIDAS database undergoing percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy in acute geriatric wards from 2006 to 2010 were included in a retrospective database analysis. Data on age, gender, main diagnosis leading to hospital admission, death in hospital, care level, and legal incapacitation were extracted from the main database of the Geriatric Minimum Data Set. Self-care capacity was assessed by the Barthel index, and cognitive status was rated with the Mini Mental State Examination or subjectively judged by the clinician. Descriptive statistics and group comparisons were chosen according to data distribution and scale of measurement, logistic regression analysis was performed to examine influence of various factors on hospital mortality. Results A total of 1232 patients (60.4% women with a median age of 82 years (range 60 to 99 years were included. The mean Barthel index at admission was 9.5 ± 14.0 points. Assessment of cognitive status was available in about half of the patients (n = 664, with 20% being mildly impaired and almost 70% being moderately to severely impaired. Stroke was the most common main diagnosis (55.2%. In-hospital mortality was 12.8%. In a logistic regression analysis, old age (odds ratio (OR 1.030, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.003-1.056, male sex (OR 1.741, 95% CI 1.216-2.493, and pneumonia (OR 2.641, 95% CI 1.457-4.792 or the diagnosis group ‘miscellaneous disease’ (OR 1.864, 95% CI 1

  14. Sex-dependent independent prediction of incident diabetes by depressive symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbaş-Şimşek, Tuğba; Onat, Altan; Kaya, Adnan; Tusun, Eyyup; Yüksel, Hüsniye; Can, Günay

    2017-12-01

    To study the predictive value of depressive symptoms (DeprSs) in a general population of Turkey for type 2 diabetes. Responses to three questions served to assess the sense of depression. Cox regression analyses were used regarding risk estimates for incident diabetes, after exclusion of prevalent cases of diabetes. Mean follow-up consisted of 5.15 (±1.4) years. Depressive symptoms were present at baseline in 16.2% of the whole study sample, threefold in women than men. Reduced physical activity grade was the only significant covariate at baseline in men, while younger age and lower blood pressure were significantly different in women compared with those without DeprS. In men, presence of DeprS predicted incident diabetes at a significant 2.58-fold relative risk (95% confidence interval 1.03; 6.44), after adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure, and antidepressant drug usage. When further covariates were added, waist circumference remained the only significant predictor, while DepS was attenuated to a relative risk of 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.83; 5.40). DeprS was not associated with diabetes in women, whereas antidepressant drug usage only tended to be positively associated. Gender difference existed in the relationship between DeprS and incident diabetes. DeprS predicted subsequent development of diabetes in men alone, not in women. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Frailty Index Predicts All-Cause Mortality for Middle-Aged and Older Taiwanese: Implications for Active-Aging Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shu-Yu; Lee, Wei-Ju; Chou, Ming-Yueh; Peng, Li-Ning; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Liang-Kung

    2016-01-01

    Frailty Index, defined as an individual's accumulated proportion of listed health-related deficits, is a well-established metric used to assess the health status of old adults; however, it has not yet been developed in Taiwan, and its local related structure factors remain unclear. The objectives were to construct a Taiwan Frailty Index to predict mortality risk, and to explore the structure of its factors. Analytic data on 1,284 participants aged 53 and older were excerpted from the Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study (2006), in Taiwan. A consensus workgroup of geriatricians selected 159 items according to the standard procedure for creating a Frailty Index. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to explore the association between the Taiwan Frailty Index and mortality. Exploratory factor analysis was used to identify structure factors and produce a shorter version-the Taiwan Frailty Index Short-Form. During an average follow-up of 4.3 ± 0.8 years, 140 (11%) subjects died. Compared to those in the lowest Taiwan Frailty Index tertile ( 0.23) had significantly higher risk of death (Hazard ratio: 3.2; 95% CI 1.9-5.4). Thirty-five items of five structure factors identified by exploratory factor analysis, included: physical activities, life satisfaction and financial status, health status, cognitive function, and stresses. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (C-statistics) of the Taiwan Frailty Index and its Short-Form were 0.80 and 0.78, respectively, with no statistically significant difference between them. Although both the Taiwan Frailty Index and Short-Form were associated with mortality, the Short-Form, which had similar accuracy in predicting mortality as the full Taiwan Frailty Index, would be more expedient in clinical practice and community settings to target frailty screening and intervention.

  16. Prediction of cardiovascular and total mortality in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients by the WHO definition for the metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, G T-C; So, W-Y; Chan, N N; Chan, W-B; Tong, P C-Y; Li, J; Yeung, V; Chow, C-C; Ozaki, R; Ma, R C-W; Cockram, C S; Chan, J C-N

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MES) in type 2 diabetic patients and the predictive values of the World Health Organization (WHO) and National Cholesterol Education Programme (NCEP) definitions and the individual components of the MES on total and cardiovascular mortality. A prospective analysis of a consecutive cohort of 5202 Chinese type 2 diabetic patients recruited between July 1994 and April 2001. The prevalence of the MES was 49.2-58.1% depending on the use of various criteria. There were 189 deaths (men: 100 and women: 89) in these 5205 patients during a median (interquartile range) follow-up period of 2.1 (0.3-3.6 years). Of these, 164 (87%) were classified as cardiovascular deaths. Using the NCEP criterion, patients with MES had a death rate similar to those without (3.51 vs. 3.85%). By contrast, based on the WHO criteria, patients with MES had a higher mortality rate than those without (4.3 vs. 2.4%, p = 0.002). Compared to patients with neither NCEP- nor WHO-defined MES, only the group with MES defined by the WHO, but not NCEP, criterion had significantly higher mortality rate (2.6 vs. 6.8%, p hypertension, low BMI and albuminuria were the key predictors for these adverse events. In Chinese type 2 diabetic patients, the WHO criterion has a better discriminative power over the NCEP criterion for predicting death. Among the various components of the MES defined either by WHO or NCEP, hypertension, albuminuria and low BMI were the main predictors of cardiovascular and total mortality.

  17. Does C-reactive protein independently predict mortality in adult community-acquired bacteremia patients with known sepsis severity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gradel, Kim O; Jensen, Thøger G; Kolmos, Hans J

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated whether sepsis severity and C-reactive protein (CRP) level on admission prognostically corroborated or annulled each other in adult patients with incident community-acquired bacteremia (Funen, Denmark, 2000-2008). We used logistic regression and area under the receiver operating.......06), thus CRP contributed as much as sepsis severity to prognosis....

  18. Elevated admission microalbuminuria predicts poor myocardial blood flow and 6-month mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jia Wei; Wang, Yong Liang; Li, Hong Wei

    2012-04-01

    Microalbuminuria (MA) is considered a major risk factor predisposing to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by MA have been well described. However, data regarding admission MA and coronary and myocardial flow are scant. The aims of this study were to evaluate the effects of admission MA on coronary blood flow and prognosis in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing primary PCI. Did elevated admission microalbuminuria predict poor myocardial blood flow and 6-month mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention? A total of 247 patients undergoing primary PCI for STEMI within 12 hours after symptom onset were studied. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to admission urinary albumin extraction rate (UAER): (1) an MA group (UAER 20-200 µg/min), and (2) a normoalbuminuria (NA) group (UAER < 20 µg/min). Microalbuminuria was observed in 108 patients. Univariate analyses showed statistical differences between the NA and MA groups in serum creatine level, plasma glucose level, and peak creatine kinase level on presentation. Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) flow grades (TFGs) 0-2 in the MA group were more frequent (9.4% vs 21.2%, P < 0.05) than in the NA group, and corrected TIMI frame count was higher (23.9 ± 18.5 vs 29.8 ± 23.5, P < 0.05). Admission MA was an independent predictor of poor myocardial perfusion (adjusted relative risk: 3.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.99-6.78) and a higher rate of 6-month mortality in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI (adjusted relative risk: 1.58, 95% confidence interval: 0.74-3.39). Admission MA levels are associated with impaired myocardial flow and poor prognosis in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Prediction of Mortality From Clinical Presentation and Glasgow Aneurysm Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weingarten, Toby N; Thompson, Lauren T; Licatino, Lauren K; Bailey, Christopher H; Schroeder, Darrell R; Sprung, Juraj

    2016-04-01

    To examine association of presenting clinical acuity and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) with perioperative and 1-year mortality. Retrospective chart review. Major tertiary care facility. Patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) from 2003 through 2013. Emergency repair of rAAA. The authors reviewed outcomes after stable versus unstable presentation and by GAS. Unstable presentation included hypotension, cardiac arrest, loss of consciousness, and preoperative tracheal intubation. In total, 125 patients (40 stable) underwent repair. Perioperative mortality rates were 41% and 12% in unstable and stable patients, respectively (pClinical presentation and GAS identified patients with rAAA who were likely to have a poor surgical outcome. GAS≥96 was associated with poor long-term survival, but>20% of these patients survived 1 year. Thus, neither clinical presentation nor GAS provided reliable guidance for decisions regarding futility of surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace...... their parents on a one-for-one basis in the long run. Otherwise the population would either increase exponentially or become extinct. Combining data on growth and specific fecundity in a size-based fish community model of the North Sea and using the requirement of a one-for-one replacement provides...... the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size...

  1. Blood pressure variability predicts cardiovascular events independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and target organ damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vishram, Julie K K; Dahlöf, Björn; Devereux, Richard B

    2015-01-01

    ). METHODS: In 8505 patients randomized to losartan vs. atenolol-based treatment in the LIFE study, we tested whether BP variability assessed as SD and range for BP6-24months measured at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months of treatment was associated with target organ damage (TOD) defined by LVH on ECG and urine albumin......BACKGROUND: Assessment of antihypertensive treatment is normally based on the mean value of a number of blood pressure (BP) measurements. However, it is uncertain whether high in-treatment visit-to-visit BP variability may be harmful in hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH.......05), but MI was not. CONCLUSION: In LIFE patients, higher in-treatment BP6-24months variability was independently of mean BP6-24months associated with later CEP and stroke, but not with MI or TOD after 24 months....

  2. MUSiC - Model-independent search for deviations from Standard Model predictions in CMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieta, Holger

    2010-02-01

    We present an approach for a model independent search in CMS. Systematically scanning the data for deviations from the standard model Monte Carlo expectations, such an analysis can help to understand the detector and tune event generators. By minimizing the theoretical bias the analysis is furthermore sensitive to a wide range of models for new physics, including the uncounted number of models not-yet-thought-of. After sorting the events into classes defined by their particle content (leptons, photons, jets and missing transverse energy), a minimally prejudiced scan is performed on a number of distributions. Advanced statistical methods are used to determine the significance of the deviating regions, rigorously taking systematic uncertainties into account. A number of benchmark scenarios, including common models of new physics and possible detector effects, have been used to gauge the power of such a method. )

  3. SuPAR predicts postoperative complications and mortality in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hodges, Gethin W; Bang, Casper N; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    complications with a HR of 2.7 (95% CI 1.5 to 5.1, P=0.002), per doubling in suPAR. After adjusting for the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation or Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score, suPAR remained associated with postoperative mortality with a HR 3.2 (95% CI 1.2 to 8.6, P=0.025) and 2...

  4. REG4 independently predicts better prognosis in non-mucinous colorectal cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuomas Kaprio

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer (CRC is one of the world's three most common cancers and its incidence is rising. To identify patients who benefit from adjuvant therapy requires novel biomarkers. The regenerating islet-derived gene (REG 4 belongs to a group of small secretory proteins involved in cell proliferation and regeneration. Its up-regulated expression occurs in inflammatory bowel diseases also in gastrointestinal cancers. Reports on the association of REG4 expression with CRC prognosis have been mixed. Our aim was to investigate tumor REG4 expression in CRC patients and its coexpression with other intestinal markers. METHODS: Tumor expression of REG4 was evaluated by immunohistochemistry in 840 consecutive surgically treated CRC patients at Helsinki University Central Hospital. Expression of MUC1, MUC2, MUC5AC, synapthophysin, and chromogranin was evaluated in a subgroup of 220 consecutively operated CRC patients. REG4 expression with clinicopathological parameters, other intestinal markers, and the impact of REG4 expression on survival were assessed. RESULTS: REG4 expression associated with favorable clinicopathological parameters and with higher overall survival from non-mucinous CRC (p = 0.019. For such patients under 65, its expression was an independent marker of lower risk of death within 5 years that cancer; univariable hazard ratio (HR = 0.57; 95% confidence interval (CI (0.34-0.94; multivariable HR = 0.55; 95% CI (0.33-0.92. In non-mucinous CRC, REG4 associated with positive MUC2, MUC4, and MUC5AC expression. CONCLUSION: We show, to our knowledge for the first time, that REG4 IHC expression to be an independent marker of favorable prognosis in non-mucinous CRC. Our results contradict those from studies based on quantification of REG4 mRNA levels, a discrepancy warranting further studies.

  5. Early Childhood Diarrhea Predicts Cognitive Delays in Later Childhood Independently of Malnutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkerton, Relana; Oriá, Reinaldo B; Lima, Aldo A M; Rogawski, Elizabeth T; Oriá, Mônica O B; Patrick, Peter D; Moore, Sean R; Wiseman, Benjamin L; Niehaus, Mark D; Guerrant, Richard L

    2016-11-02

    Understanding the complex relationship between early childhood infectious diseases, nutritional status, poverty, and cognitive development is significantly hindered by the lack of studies that adequately address confounding between these variables. This study assesses the independent contributions of early childhood diarrhea (ECD) and malnutrition on cognitive impairment in later childhood. A cohort of 131 children from a shantytown community in northeast Brazil was monitored from birth to 24 months for diarrhea and anthropometric status. Cognitive assessments including Test of Nonverbal Intelligence (TONI), coding tasks (WISC-III), and verbal fluency (NEPSY) were completed when children were an average of 8.4 years of age (range = 5.6-12.7 years). Multivariate analysis of variance models were used to assess the individual as well as combined effects of ECD and stunting on later childhood cognitive performance. ECD, height for age (HAZ) at 24 months, and weight for age (WAZ) at 24 months were significant univariate predictors of the studies three cognitive outcomes: TONI, coding, and verbal performance (P < 0.05). Multivariate models showed that ECD remained a significant predictor, after adjusting for the effect of 24 months HAZ and WAZ, for both TONI (HAZ, P = 0.029 and WAZ, P = 0.006) and coding (HAZ, P = 0.025 and WAZ, P = 0.036) scores. WAZ and HAZ were also significant predictors after adjusting for ECD. ECD remained a significant predictor of coding (WISC III) after number of household income was considered (P = 0.006). This study provides evidence that ECD and stunting may have independent effects on children's intellectual function well into later childhood. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  6. Independent value added by diffusion MRI for prediction of cognitive function in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia A Scott

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine whether white matter microstructure measured by diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI provides independent information about baseline level or change in executive function (EF or memory (MEM in older adults with and without cognitive impairment. Longitudinal data was acquired from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI study from phases GO and 2 (2009–2015. ADNI participants included were diagnosed as cognitively normal (n = 46, early mild cognitive impairment (MCI (n = 48, late MCI (n = 29, and dementia (n = 39 at baseline. We modeled the association between dMRI-based global white matter mean diffusivity (MD and baseline level and change in EF and MEM composite scores, in models controlling for baseline bilateral hippocampal volume, regional cerebral FDG PET metabolism and global cerebral AV45 PET uptake. EF and MEM composite scores were measured at baseline, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. In the baseline late MCI and dementia groups, greater global MD was associated with lesser baseline EF, but not EF change nor MEM baseline or change. As expected, lesser hippocampal volume and lesser FDG PET metabolism was associated with greater rates of EF and MEM decline. In ADNI-GO/2 participants, white matter integrity provided independent information about current executive function, but was not sensitive to future cognitive change. Since individuals experiencing executive function declines progress to dementia more rapidly than those with only memory impairment, better biomarkers of future executive function decline are needed.

  7. Single living predicts a higher mortality in both women and men with chronic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mard, Shan; Nielsen, Finn Erland

    2016-09-01

    We examined the impact of single living on all-cause mortality in patients with chronic heart failure and determined if this association was modified by gender. This historical cohort study included 637 patients who were admitted to the Department of Cardiology, Herlev Hospital, Denmark, between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2007. Baseline clinical data were obtained from patient records. Data on survival rates were obtained from the Danish Civil Registration System. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to compute the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality, controlling for confounding factors. The median follow-up time was 2.8 years. A total of 323 (50.7%) patients died during the follow-up period. After adjustment for confounding factors, risk of death was associated with being single (HR = 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.96)). In a gender-stratified analysis, the risk of death did not differ among single-living women and men. Single living is a prognostic determinant of all-cause mortality in men and women with chronic heart failure. none. not relevant.

  8. Single living predicts a higher mortality in both women and men with chronic heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mard, Shan; Nielsen, Finn Erland

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We examined the impact of single living on all-cause mortality in patients with chronic heart failure and determined if this association was modified by gender. METHODS: This historical cohort study included 637 patients who were admitted to the Department of Cardiology, Herlev Hosp......, the risk of death did not differ among single-living women and men. CONCLUSION: Single living is a prognostic determinant of all-cause mortality in men and women with chronic heart failure. FUNDING: none. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant.......INTRODUCTION: We examined the impact of single living on all-cause mortality in patients with chronic heart failure and determined if this association was modified by gender. METHODS: This historical cohort study included 637 patients who were admitted to the Department of Cardiology, Herlev...... for confounding factors. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 2.8 years. A total of 323 (50.7%) patients died during the follow-up period. After adjustment for confounding factors, risk of death was associated with being single (HR = 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.96)). In a gender-stratified analysis...