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Sample records for predicts long-term persistence

  1. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  2. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  3. Using individual-condition measures to predict the long-term importance of habitat extent for population persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosgrove, Anita J; McWhorter, Todd J; Maron, Martine

    2017-10-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are causing widespread population declines, but identifying how and when to intervene remains challenging. Predicting where extirpations are likely to occur and implementing management actions before losses result may be more cost-effective than trying to reestablish lost populations. Early indicators of pressure on populations could be used to make such predictions. Previous work conducted in 2009 and 2010 identified that the presence of Eastern Yellow Robins (Eopsaltria australis) in 42 sites in a fragmented region of eastern Australia was unrelated to woodland extent within 500 m of a site, but the robins' heterophil:lymphocyte (H:L) ratios (an indicator of chronic stress) were elevated at sites with low levels of surrounding woodland. We resurveyed these 42 sites in 2013 and 2014 for robin presence to determine whether the H:L ratios obtained in 2009 and 2010 predicted the locations of extirpations and whether the previous pattern in H:L ratios was an early sign that woodland extent would become an important predictor of occupancy. We also surveyed for robins at 43 additional sites to determine whether current occupancy could be better predicted by landscape context at a larger scale, relevant to dispersal movements. At the original 42 sites, H:L ratios and extirpations were not related, although only 4 extirpations were observed. Woodland extent within 500 m had become a strong predictor of occupancy. Taken together, these results provide mixed evidence as to whether patterns of individual condition can reveal habitat relationships that become evident as local shifts in occupancy occur but that are not revealed by a single snapshot of species distribution. Across all 85 sites, woodland extent at scales relevant to dispersal (5 km) was not related to occurrence. We recommend that conservation actions focus on regenerating areas of habitat large enough to support robin territories rather than increasing connectivity within the

  4. Persistent hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia of infancy: long-term ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Aim The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term outcome of six children with persistent hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia of infancy (PHHI) after pancreatectomy who have been followed since 1990 at the Riyadh Military Hospital, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Patients and methods Data from six patients were ...

  5. Prediction of long-term creep curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikawa, Hiroshi; Maruyama, Kouichi

    1992-01-01

    This paper aims at discussing how to predict long-term irradiation enhanced creep properties from short-term tests. The predictive method based on the θ concept was examined by using creep data of ferritic steels. The method was successful in predicting creep curves including the tertiary creep stage as well as rupture lifetimes. Some material constants involved in the method are insensitive to the irradiation environment, and their values obtained in thermal creep are applicable to irradiation enhanced creep. The creep mechanisms of most engineering materials definitely change at the athermal yield stress in the non-creep regime. One should be aware that short-term tests must be carried out at stresses lower than the athermal yield stress in order to predict the creep behavior of structural components correctly. (orig.)

  6. Hanford grout: predicting long-term performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewart, G.H.; Mitchell, D.H.; Treat, R.L.; McMakin, A.H.

    1987-01-01

    Grouted disposal is being planned for the low-level portion of liquid radioactive wastes at the Hanford site in Washington state. The performance of the disposal system must be such that it will protect people and the environment for thousands of years after disposal. To predict whether a specific grout disposal system will comply with existing and foreseen regulations, a performance assessment (PA) is performed. Long-term PAs are conducted for a range of performance conditions. Performance assessment is an inexact science. Quantifying projected impacts is especially difficult when only scant data exist on the behavior of certain components of the disposal system over thousands of years. To develop defensible results, we are honing the models and obtaining experimental data. The combination of engineered features and PA refinements is being used to ensure that Hanford grout will meet its principal goal: to protect people and the environment in the future

  7. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10 3 -10 5 years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., open-quotes natural analoguesclose quotes) provide perhaps the only means of partial open-quotes validation,close quotes as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10 3 -10 8 years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the open-quotes validationclose quotes of performance assessments

  8. Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, S.H.; Evans, G.M.

    2010-01-01

    Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

  9. Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: The impact factor of the journal in which a

  10. Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

    A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: the impact factor of the journal in which a

  11. Long term persistence in the sea surface temperature fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Monetti, Roberto A.; Havlin, Shlomo; Bunde, Armin

    2002-01-01

    We study the temporal correlations in the sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations around the seasonal mean values in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. We apply a method that systematically overcome possible trends in the data. We find that the SST persistence, characterized by the correlation $C(s)$ of temperature fluctuations separated by a time period $s$, displays two different regimes. In the short-time regime which extends up to roughly 10 months, the temperature fluctuations display a...

  12. The long-term persistence of phytoplankton resting stages in aquatic "seed banks"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellegaard, Marianne; Ribeiro, Sofia

    2018-01-01

    to terrestrial seed beds of vascular plants, but are much less studied. It is therefore timely to review the phenomenon of long-term persistence of aquatic resting stages in sediment seed banks. Herein we compare function, morphology and physiology of phytoplankton resting stages to factors central...... for persistence of terrestrial seeds. We review the types of resting stages found in different groups of phytoplankton and focus on the groups for which long-term (multi-decadal) persistence has been shown: dinoflagellates, diatoms, green algae and cyanobacteria. We discuss the metabolism of long-term dormancy......In the past decade, research on long-term persistence of phytoplankton resting stages has intensified. Simultaneously, insight into life-cycle variability in the diverse groups of phytoplankton has also increased. Aquatic 'seed banks' have tremendous significance and show many interesting parallels...

  13. Persistent increased PKMζ in long-term and remote spatial memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Changchi; Tsokas, Panayiotis; Serrano, Peter; Hernández, A Iván; Tian, Dezhi; Cottrell, James E; Shouval, Harel Z; Fenton, André Antonio; Sacktor, Todd Charlton

    2017-02-01

    PKMζ is an autonomously active PKC isoform that is thought to maintain both LTP and long-term memory. Whereas persistent increases in PKMζ protein sustain the kinase's action in LTP, the molecular mechanism for the persistent action of PKMζ during long-term memory has not been characterized. PKMζ inhibitors disrupt spatial memory when introduced into the dorsal hippocampus from 1day to 1month after training. Therefore, if the mechanisms of PKMζ's persistent action in LTP maintenance and long-term memory were similar, persistent increases in PKMζ would last for the duration of the memory, far longer than most other learning-induced gene products. Here we find that spatial conditioning by aversive active place avoidance or appetitive radial arm maze induces PKMζ increases in dorsal hippocampus that persist from 1day to 1month, coinciding with the strength and duration of memory retention. Suppressing the increase by intrahippocampal injections of PKMζ-antisense oligodeoxynucleotides prevents the formation of long-term memory. Thus, similar to LTP maintenance, the persistent increase in the amount of autonomously active PKMζ sustains the kinase's action during long-term and remote spatial memory maintenance. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. Prediction of long-term behaviour for nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoesmith, D.W.; Ikeda, B.M.; King, F.; Sunder, S.

    1996-09-01

    The modelling procedures developed for the long-term prediction of the corrosion of used fuel and of titanium and copper nuclear waste containers are described. The corrosion behaviour of these materials changes with time as the conditions within the conceptual disposal vault evolve from an early warm, oxidizing phase to an indefinite period of cool, anoxic conditions. For the two candidate container materials, this evolution of conditions means that the containers will be initially susceptible to localized corrosion but that in the long-term, corrosion should be more general in nature. The propagation of the pitting of Cu and of the crevice corrosion of Ti alloys is modelled using statistical models. General corrosion processes are modelled deterministically. For the fuel, deterministic electrochemical models have been developed to predict the long-term dissolution rate of U0 2 . The corrosion behaviour of materials in the disposal vault can be influenced by reengineering the vault environment. For instance, increasing the areal loading of containers will produce higher vault temperatures resulting in more extensive drying of the porous backfill materials. The initiation of crevice corrosion on Ti may then be delayed, leading to longer container lifetimes. For copper containers, minimizing the amount Of O 2 initially trapped in the pores of the backfill, or adding reducing agents to consume this O 2 faster, will limit the extent of corrosion, permitting a reduction of the container wall thickness necessary for containment. (author). 55 refs., 19 figs

  15. The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osterrieder, Daniela; Schotman, Peter C.

    We develop a model that can match two stylized facts of the term-structure. The first stylized fact is the predictability of excess returns on long-term bonds. Modeling this requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the price of risk. The second stylized fact is that long-term yields...... are dominated by a level factor, which requires persistence in the spot interest rate. We find that a fractionally integrated process for the short rate plus a fractionally integrated specification for the price of risk leads to an analytically tractable almost affine term structure model that can explain...... the stylized facts. In a decomposition of long-term bond returns we find that the expectations component from the level factor is more volatile than the returns themselves. It therefore takes a volatile risk premium that is negatively correlated with innovations in the level factor to explain the volatility...

  16. Differential maps, difference maps, interpolated maps, and long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talman, R.

    1988-06-01

    Mapping techniques may be thought to be attractive for the long term prediction of motion in accelerators, especially because a simple map can approximately represent an arbitrarily complicated lattice. The intention of this paper is to develop prejudices as to the validity of such methods by applying them to a simple, exactly solveable, example. It is shown that a numerical interpolation map, such as can be generated in the accelerator tracking program TEAPOT, predicts the evolution more accurately than an analytically derived differential map of the same order. Even so, in the presence of ''appreciable'' nonlinearity, it is shown to be impractical to achieve ''accurate'' prediction beyond some hundreds of cycles of oscillation. This suggests that the value of nonlinear maps is restricted to the parameterization of only the ''leading'' deviation from linearity. 41 refs., 6 figs

  17. Long-Term Prediction of Satellite Orbit Using Analytical Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Cheol Yoon

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available A long-term prediction algorithm of geostationary orbit was developed using the analytical method. The perturbation force models include geopotential upto fifth order and degree and luni-solar gravitation, and solar radiation pressure. All of the perturbation effects were analyzed by secular variations, short-period variations, and long-period variations for equinoctial elements such as the semi-major axis, eccentricity vector, inclination vector, and mean longitude of the satellite. Result of the analytical orbit propagator was compared with that of the cowell orbit propagator for the KOREASAT. The comparison indicated that the analytical solution could predict the semi-major axis with an accuarcy of better than ~35meters over a period of 3 month.

  18. Does stress remove the HDAC brakes for the formation and persistence of long-term memory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, André O; Wood, Marcelo A

    2014-07-01

    It has been known for numerous decades that gene expression is required for long-lasting forms of memory. In the past decade, the study of epigenetic mechanisms in memory processes has revealed yet another layer of complexity in the regulation of gene expression. Epigenetic mechanisms do not only provide complexity in the protein regulatory complexes that control coordinate transcription for specific cell function, but the epigenome encodes critical information that integrates experience and cellular history for specific cell functions as well. Thus, epigenetic mechanisms provide a unique mechanism of gene expression regulation for memory processes. This may be why critical negative regulators of gene expression, such as histone deacetylases (HDACs), have powerful effects on the formation and persistence of memory. For example, HDAC inhibition has been shown to transform a subthreshold learning event into robust long-term memory and also generate a form of long-term memory that persists beyond the point at which normal long-term memory fails. A key question that is explored in this review, from a learning and memory perspective, is whether stress-dependent signaling drives the formation and persistence of long-term memory via HDAC-dependent mechanisms. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Does stress remove the HDAC brakes for the formation and persistence of long-term memory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, André O.; Wood, Marcelo A.

    2013-01-01

    It has been known for numerous decades that gene expression is required for long-lasting forms of memory. In the past decade, the study of epigenetic mechanisms in memory processes has revealed yet another layer of complexity in the regulation of gene expression. Epigenetic mechanisms do not only provide complexity in the protein regulatory complexes that control coordinate transcription for specific cell function, but the epigenome encodes critical information that integrates experience and cellular history for specific cell functions as well. Thus, epigenetic mechanisms provide a unique mechanism of gene expression regulation for memory processes. This may be why critical negative regulators of gene expression, such as histone deacetylases (HDACs), have powerful effects on the formation and persistence of memory. For example, HDAC inhibition has been shown to transform a subthreshold learning event into robust long-term memory and also generate a form of long-term memory that persists beyond the point at which normal long-term memory fails. A key question that is explored in this review, from a learning and memory perspective, is whether stress-dependent signaling drives the formation and persistence of long-term memory via HDAC-dependent mechanisms. PMID:24149059

  20. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smolen

    Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  1. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

    2012-01-01

    Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  2. Long-term persistence of pioneer species in tropical forest soil seed banks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalling, J W; Brown, T A

    2008-10-05

    In tropical forests, pioneer species regenerate from seeds dispersed directly into canopy gaps, and from seeds that persisted in soil seed banks before gap formation. However, life-history models suggest that selection for long-term persistence of seeds in soil should be weak, as persistence incurs a fitness cost resulting from prolonged generation time. We use a carbon dating technique to provide the first direct measurements of seed persistence in undisturbed tropical forest seed banks. We show that seeds germinate successfully from surface soil microsites up to 38 years after dispersal. Decades-long persistence may be common in pioneers with relatively large mass, and appears to be unrelated to specific regeneration requirements. In Croton billbergianus, a sub-canopy tree that recruits in abundant small gaps, long-term persistence is associated with short-distance ballistic seed dispersal. In Trema micrantha, a canopy tree with widespread dispersal, persistence is associated with a requirement for large gaps that form infrequently in old-growth forest.

  3. Global estimation of long-term persistence in annual river runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markonis, Y.; Moustakis, Y.; Nasika, C.; Sychova, P.; Dimitriadis, P.; Hanel, M.; Máca, P.; Papalexiou, S. M.

    2018-03-01

    Long-term persistence (LTP) of annual river runoff is a topic of ongoing hydrological research, due to its implications to water resources management. Here, we estimate its strength, measured by the Hurst coefficient H, in 696 annual, globally distributed, streamflow records with at least 80 years of data. We use three estimation methods (maximum likelihood estimator, Whittle estimator and least squares variance) resulting in similar mean values of H close to 0.65. Subsequently, we explore potential factors influencing H by two linear (Spearman's rank correlation, multiple linear regression) and two non-linear (self-organizing maps, random forests) techniques. Catchment area is found to be crucial for medium to larger watersheds, while climatic controls, such as aridity index, have higher impact to smaller ones. Our findings indicate that long-term persistence is weaker than found in other studies, suggesting that enhanced LTP is encountered in large-catchment rivers, were the effect of spatial aggregation is more intense. However, we also show that the estimated values of H can be reproduced by a short-term persistence stochastic model such as an auto-regressive AR(1) process. A direct consequence is that some of the most common methods for the estimation of H coefficient, might not be suitable for discriminating short- and long-term persistence even in long observational records.

  4. Long-term persistence of various 14C-labeled pesticides in soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jablonowski, Nicolai D.; Linden, Andreas; Köppchen, Stephan; Thiele, Björn; Hofmann, Diana; Mittelstaedt, Werner; Pütz, Thomas; Burauel, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The fate of the 14 C-labeled herbicides ethidimuron (ETD), methabenzthiazuron (MBT), and the fungicide anilazine (ANI) in soils was evaluated after long-term aging (9–17 years) in field based lysimeters subject to crop rotation. Analysis of residual 14 C activity in the soils revealed 19% (ETD soil; 0–10 cm depth), 35% (MBT soil; 0–30), and 43% (ANI soil; 0–30) of the total initially applied. Accelerated solvent extraction yielded 90% (ETD soil), 26% (MBT soil), and 41% (ANI soil) of residual pesticide 14 C activity in the samples. LC-MS/MS analysis revealed the parent compounds ETD and MBT, accounting for 3% and 2% of applied active ingredient in the soil layer, as well as dihydroxy-anilazine as the primary ANI metabolite. The results for ETD and MBT were matching with values obtained from samples of a 12 year old field plot experiment. The data demonstrate the long-term persistence of these pesticides in soils based on outdoor trials. - Highlights: ► The environmental persistence of three 14 C-labeled pesticides in soils is presented. ► Extract analysis revealed the pesticides and metabolites after 9–17 years of aging. ► Pesticide residues may represent a long-term soil burden. ► The bioaccessibility and/or bioavailability of long-term aged pesticide residues remain unknown. - Residual fractions of the pesticides ethidimuron, methabenzthiazuron, and metabolites of anilazine are highly persistent in soils and remain extractable after long-term environmental aging.

  5. The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Nabe-Nielsen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis, vole (Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. SIGNIFICANCE: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations

  6. Persistent and progressive long-term lung disease in survivors of preterm birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urs, Rhea; Kotecha, Sailesh; Hall, Graham L; Simpson, Shannon J

    2018-04-13

    Preterm birth accounts for approximately 11% of births globally, with rates increasing across many countries. Concurrent advances in neonatal care have led to increased survival of infants of lower gestational age (GA). However, infants born poor respiratory outcomes throughout childhood, into adolescence and adulthood. Indeed, survivors of preterm birth have shown increased respiratory symptoms, altered lung structure, persistent and even declining lung function throughout childhood. The mechanisms behind this persistent and sometimes progressive lung disease are unclear, and the implications place those born preterm at increased risk of respiratory morbidity into adulthood. This review aims to summarise what is known about the long-term pulmonary outcomes of contemporary preterm birth, examine the possible mechanisms of long-term respiratory morbidity in those born preterm and discuss addressing the unknowns and potentials for targeted treatments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Rode, Karyn D.; Durner, George M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.

    2015-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion’s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions

  8. Major depressive disorder subtypes to predict long-term course

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Loo, Hanna M.; Cai, Tianxi; Gruber, Michael J.; Li, Junlong; de Jonge, Peter; Petukhova, Maria; Rose, Sherri; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoevers, Robert A.; Wardenaar, Klaas J.; Wilcox, Marsha A.; Al-Hamzawi, Ali Obaid; Andrade, Laura Helena; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Bunting, Brendan; Fayyad, John; Florescu, Silvia E.; Gureje, Oye; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Levinson, Daphna; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Nakane, Yoshibumi; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Xavier, Miguel; Zarkov, Zahari; Kessler, Ronald C.

    2016-01-01

    Background Variation in course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing subtype distinctions. A new subtyping approach is considered here. Methods Two data mining techniques, ensemble recursive partitioning and Lasso generalized linear models (GLMs) followed by k-means cluster analysis, are used to search for subtypes based on index episode symptoms predicting subsequent MDD course in the World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. The WMH surveys are community surveys in 16 countries. Lifetime DSM-IV MDD was reported by 8,261 respondents. Retrospectively reported outcomes included measures of persistence (number of years with an episode; number of with an episode lasting most of the year) and severity (hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Results Recursive partitioning found significant clusters defined by the conjunctions of early onset, suicidality, and anxiety (irritability, panic, nervousness-worry-anxiety) during the index episode. GLMs found additional associations involving a number of individual symptoms. Predicted values of the four outcomes were strongly correlated. Cluster analysis of these predicted values found three clusters having consistently high, intermediate, or low predicted scores across all outcomes. The high-risk cluster (30.0% of respondents) accounted for 52.9-69.7% of high persistence and severity and was most strongly predicted by index episode severe dysphoria, suicidality, anxiety, and early onset. A total symptom count, in comparison, was not a significant predictor. Conclusions Despite being based on retrospective reports, results suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made using data mining methods. Further studies are needed to test and expand these results with prospective data. PMID:24425049

  9. Predicting the long term stabilisation of uranium mill tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trojacek, J.

    2004-01-01

    The long-term stabilization and remediation of uranium mill tailings ponds is an important task for DIAMO. After uranium mining was stopped, DIAMO has to remediate more then 400 ha of tailings ponds at three locations. It is currently planned to cover the surface with low permeability materials with a slope of approx. 3% to protect the interior of the disposal facility from infiltrating rainwater. This entails to cover the free surface of these ponds with several hundred thousand tons of inert material. As a result of this load, the porewater from the tailings is expelled and the body of the impounded materials consolidates. Consolidation of tailings proceeds irregularly, depending on the internal structure of the tailings layers and on the progress of loading. The surface needs to be recontoured for a long time into the future. The topic of the DIAMO project is to predict and optimise the final surface contour of the tailings pond body, and to determine the time schedule and locations for recontouring work. The K1 tailings pond in Dolni Rozinka (Southern Moravia) is a typical example for such task. The average thickness of the tailings layer is around 25 m and the average porewater contents varies from 25 up to 40%. In the years 1998-99 a PHARE pilot project was undertaken that aimed to predict the quantity and quality of drainage and infiltration waters as a function of time. A new investigation programme (field, laboratory and modelling) has been implemented. The range of material properties and distribution of types of tailings was established. Orientation calculations of the tailings consolidation were made for fine slime zone. The results have shown that significant subsidence of the surface is to be expected after loading with inert material for the construction of an interim cover. (author)

  10. Surviving colorectal cancer: long-term, persistent ostomy-specific concerns and adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Virginia; Grant, Marcia; McMullen, Carmit K; Altschuler, Andrea; Mohler, M Jane; Hornbrook, Mark C; Herrinton, Lisa J; Baldwin, Carol M; Krouse, Robert S

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article was to describe persistent ostomy-specific concerns and adaptations in long-term (>5 years) colorectal cancer survivors with ostomies. Thirty-three colorectal cancer survivors who participated in 8 gender- and health-related quality of life stratified focus groups and 130 colorectal cancer survivors who provided written comments to 2 open-ended questions on ostomy location and pouch problems participated in the study. Data were collected on health maintenance organization members in Oregon, southwestern Washington, and northern California. Qualitative data were analyzed for the 8 focus groups and written comments from 2 open-ended survey questions. Discussions from the focu s groups were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using content analysis. Written content from the open-ended questions was derived from a mailed questionnaire on health-related quality of life in survivors with ostomies and analyzed using content analysis. Discussions related to persistent ostomy-related issues more than 5 years after formation were common. Persistent ostomy-related issues were focused on clothing restrictions and adaptations, dietary concerns, issues related to ostomy equipment and self-care, and the constant need to find solutions to adjust and readjust to living with an ostomy. Ostomy-specific concerns persist 5 years and more for long-term colorectal cancer survivors after initial ostomy formation. Adaptations tend to be individualized and based on trial and error. Findings underscore the need to develop long-term support mechanisms that survivors can access to promote better coping and adjustment to living with an ostomy.

  11. Stress within a Restricted Time Window Selectively Affects the Persistence of Long-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Qin; Chai, Ning; Zhao, Li-Yan; Xue, Yan-Xue; Luo, Yi-Xiao; Jian, Min; Han, Ying; Shi, Hai-Shui; Lu, Lin; Wu, Ping; Wang, Ji-Shi

    2013-01-01

    The effects of stress on emotional memory are distinct and depend on the stages of memory. Memory undergoes consolidation and reconsolidation after acquisition and retrieval, respectively. Stress facilitates the consolidation but disrupts the reconsolidation of emotional memory. Previous research on the effects of stress on memory have focused on long-term memory (LTM) formation (tested 24 h later), but the effects of stress on the persistence of LTM (tested at least 1 week later) are unclear. Recent findings indicated that the persistence of LTM requires late-phase protein synthesis in the dorsal hippocampus. The present study investigated the effect of stress (i.e., cold water stress) during the late phase after the acquisition and retrieval of contextual fear memory in rats. We found that stress and corticosterone administration during the late phase (12 h) after acquisition, referred to as late consolidation, selectively enhanced the persistence of LTM, whereas stress during the late phase (12 h) after retrieval, referred to as late reconsolidation, selectively disrupted the restabilized persistence of LTM. Moreover, the effects of stress on the persistence of LTM were blocked by the corticosterone synthesis inhibitor metyrapone, which was administered before stress, suggesting that the glucocorticoid system is involved in the effects of stress on the persistence of LTM. We conclude that stress within a restricted time window after acquisition or retrieval selectively affects the persistence of LTM and depends on the glucocorticoid system. PMID:23544051

  12. Long term in vivo imaging with Cr{sup 3+} doped spinel nanoparticles exhibiting persistent luminescence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viana, B., E-mail: bruno.viana@chimie-paristech.fr [PSL Research University, Chimie ParisTech−CNRS, Institut de Recherche de Chimie Paris, 75005 Paris (France); Chimie-ParisTech, Paris cedex F-75231 (France); Sharma, S.K.; Gourier, D. [PSL Research University, Chimie ParisTech−CNRS, Institut de Recherche de Chimie Paris, 75005 Paris (France); Chimie-ParisTech, Paris cedex F-75231 (France); Maldiney, T.; Teston, E.; Scherman, D. [Unité de Technologies Chimiques et Biologiques pour la Santé (UTCBS), CNRS UMR 8258, INSERM U 1022, Paris cedex F-75270 (France); Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Faculté des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques, Paris cedex F-75270 (France); Chimie-ParisTech, Paris cedex F-75231 (France); Richard, C., E-mail: cyrille.richard@parisdescartes.fr [Unité de Technologies Chimiques et Biologiques pour la Santé (UTCBS), CNRS UMR 8258, INSERM U 1022, Paris cedex F-75270 (France); Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Faculté des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques, Paris cedex F-75270 (France); Chimie-ParisTech, Paris cedex F-75231 (France)

    2016-02-15

    Persistent luminescence is a singular property of some materials which are able to store the excitation or light irradiation energy at intrinsic traps or defects before slowly emitting lower energy photons within several hours. When such compounds are prepared as nanoparticles (NPs), when functionalization is realized to get colloidal materials well dispersed in aqueous medium, such nanoprobes open the use of the persistent luminescence for bioimaging applications. Recently, the numbers of in vivo applications increased with new modalities and new expectations. In this review, we focused our attention on the ZnGa{sub 2}O{sub 4}:Cr (ZGO:Cr) nanoparticles. When ZnGa{sub 2}O{sub 4} (ZGO), a normal spinel is doped with Cr{sup 3+} ions, a high brightness persistent luminescence material with an emission spectrum perfectly matching the transparency window of living tissues is obtained. It allows in vivo mouse imaging with an excellent target-to-background ratio. One interesting characteristic of ZGO:Cr lies in the fact that its persistent luminescence can be excited with orange/red light, well below its band gap energy and in the transparency window of living tissues. This important property allows multiple re-excitations to perform long term bioimaging. Antisite defects of the direct spinel structure are assumed to provide shallow traps which store the excitation light. Charge release by room temperature thermal excitation and recombination center, here trivalent chromium, are responsible for the persistent luminescence. Following a primary excitation (UV or visible), one also observed that trapped charges can be released under 977 nm light stimulation for several spinel gallate materials, therefore increasing the modalities and the materials envisioned for in vivo excitation of these NPs. - Highlights: • Review of the persistent luminescence for bio-imaging. • Long term bioimaging by in vivo excitation and photostimulation. • Challenges and main advances in the

  13. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  14. Persistent inhibition of hippocampal long-term potentiation in vivo by learned helplessness stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Benedict K; Vollmayr, Barbara; Klyubin, Igor; Gass, Peter; Rowan, Michael J

    2010-06-01

    The persistent cognitive disruptive effects of stress have been strongly implicated in the pathophysiology of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. Here we examined factors influencing the time course of recovery from the inhibitory effect of acute inescapable stressors on the ability to induce long-term potentiation (LTP) in the dorsal hippocampus in vivo. We tested different forms of LTP, different stressors and different inbred strains of rats. Acute elevated platform stress completely, but transiently (learned helplessness, inhibited LTP for at least 4 weeks. Contrary to expectations, there was no clear relationship between the ability of the footshock to trigger helpless behavior, a model of stress-induced depression, and the magnitude of LTP inhibition. Moreover, LTP did not appear to be affected by genetic susceptibility to learned helplessness, a model of genetic vulnerability to depression. This long-lasting synaptic plasticity disruption may underlie persistent impairment of hippocampus-dependent cognition by excessive acute inescapable stress.

  15. [Accumulative effects and long-term persistence of subliminal mere exposure].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawakami, Naoaki; Yoshida, Fujio

    2011-10-01

    We examined the accumulative effects and long-term persistence of subliminal mere exposure. An accumulative exposure condition (100 exposures distributed over five days) and a massed exposure condition (100 exposures in one day) were used in a Go/No-go Association Task (GNAT), with assessments of likability from Time 1 (just after) to Time 6 (after three months). First, a single stimulus was shown subliminally for a total of 100 times. The results indicated that mere exposure effects occurred equally often at Time 1. However, after Time 2, likability gradually decreased under the massed exposure condition, while it did not decrease under the accumulative exposure condition until Time 6. Second, in order to investigate the effect of multiple exposure, five stimuli belonging to a common category were shown 20 times each, for a total of 100 times. An ANOVA suggested that massed exposure had an instantaneous effect on likability, whereas accumulative exposure had a long-term persistence effect. Also, multiple exposures strengthened the mere exposure effect.

  16. The Barrier code for predicting long-term concrete performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, R.; Rogers, V.C.; Shaw, R.A.

    1989-01-01

    There are numerous features incorporated into a LLW disposal facility that deal directly with critical safety objectives required by the NRC in 10 CFR 61. Engineered barriers or structures incorporating concrete are commonly being considered for waste disposal facilities. The Barrier computer code calculates the long-term degradation of concrete structures in LLW disposal facilities. It couples this degradation with water infiltration into the facility, nuclide leaching from the waste, contaminated water release from the facility, and associated doses to members of the critical population group. The concrete degradation methodology of Barrier is described

  17. The prediction of the long-term behaviour of glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtois, Ch.; Regent, A.; Plas, F.

    1997-01-01

    Several experts draw a conclusion about the scientific content of this week-long seminar. All agree to highlight the variety and quality of the work done. It appears that there is a consensus about the phenomenology of the long-term behaviour of glasses. All the parameters that are likely to intervene in alteration processes have been identified, but some particular points require further studies: - the impact of alpha, beta and gamma irradiation, - the alteration of glass in no-saturated water, - the coupling effect with the materials surrounding glass (metal canister, over-container...), - the optimization of glass composition to deal with high burn-up spent fuels, - the relation between the formation free energy of glasses and their alteration kinetics, - the release of radionuclides trapped in glass, and - the use of mutual analogue. (A.C.)

  18. Biological effects of petroleum hydrocarbons: Predictions of long-term effects and recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capuzzo, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Biological effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine organisms and ecosystems are dependent on the persistence and bioavailability of specific hydrocarbons, the ability of organisms to accumulate and metabolize various hydrocarbons, the fate of metabolized products, and the interference of specific hydrocarbons with normal metabolic processes that may alter an organism's chances for survival and reproduction in the environment. In considering the long-term effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine ecosystems it is important to ascertain what biological effects may result in subtle ecological changes, changes in community structure and function, and possible impairment of fisheries resources. It is also important to understand which hydrocarbons persist in benthic environments and the sublethal effects that lead to reduced growth, delayed development and reduced reproductive effort, population decline and the loss of that population's function in marine communities. Only through a multi-disciplinary approach to the study of the fate, transport and effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine ecosystems will there be a significant improvement in the ability to predict the long-term effects of oil spills and to elucidate the mechanisms of recovery

  19. Long-term Persistence of Innate Lymphoid Cells in the Gut After Intestinal Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, Joshua; Zuber, Julien; Shonts, Brittany; Yang, Suxiao; Fu, Jianing; Martinez, Mercedes; Farber, Donna L; Kato, Tomoaki; Sykes, Megan

    2017-10-01

    Little is known about innate lymphoid cell (ILC) populations in the human gut, and the turnover of these cells and their subsets after transplantation has not been described. Intestinal samples were taken from 4 isolated intestine and 3 multivisceral transplant recipients at the time of any operative resection, such as stoma closure or revision. ILCs were isolated and analyzed by flow cytometry. The target population was defined as being negative for lineage markers and double-positive for CD45/CD127. Cells were further stained to define ILC subsets and a donor-specific or recipient-specific HLA marker to analyze chimerism. Donor-derived ILCs were found to persist greater than 8 years after transplantation. Additionally, the percentage of cells thought to be lymphoid tissue inducer cells among donor ILCs was far higher than that among recipient ILCs. Our findings demonstrate that donor-derived ILCs persist long-term after transplantation and support the notion that human lymphoid tissue inducer cells may form in the fetus and persist throughout life, as hypothesized in rodents. Correlation between chimerism and rejection, graft failure, and patient survival requires further study.

  20. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  1. Persistent, Long-term Cerebral White Matter Changes after Sports-Related Repetitive Head Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazarian, Jeffrey J.; Zhu, Tong; Zhong, Jianhui; Janigro, Damir; Rozen, Eric; Roberts, Andrew; Javien, Hannah; Merchant-Borna, Kian; Abar, Beau; Blackman, Eric G.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Repetitive head impacts (RHI) sustained in contact sports are thought to be necessary for the long-term development of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). Our objectives were to: 1) characterize the magnitude and persistence of RHI-induced white matter (WM) changes; 2) determine their relationship to kinematic measures of RHI; and 3) explore their clinical relevance. Methods Prospective, observational study of 10 Division III college football players and 5 non-athlete controls during the 2011-12 season. All subjects underwent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), physiologic, cognitive, and balance testing at pre-season (Time 1), post-season (Time 2), and after 6-months of no-contact rest (Time 3). Head impact measures were recorded using helmet-mounted accelerometers. The percentage of whole-brain WM voxels with significant changes in fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) from Time 1 to 2, and Time 1 to 3 was determined for each subject and correlated to head impacts and clinical measures. Results Total head impacts for the season ranged from 431–1,850. No athlete suffered a clinically evident concussion. Compared to controls, athletes experienced greater changes in FA and MD from Time 1 to 2 as well as Time 1 to 3; most differences at Time 2 persisted to Time 3. Among athletes, the percentage of voxels with decreased FA from Time 1 to 2 was positively correlated with several helmet impact measures. The persistence of WM changes from Time 1 to 3 was also associated with changes in serum ApoA1 and S100B autoantibodies. WM changes were not consistently associated with cognition or balance. Conclusions A single football season of RHIs without clinically-evident concussion resulted in WM changes that correlated with multiple helmet impact measures and persisted following 6 months of no-contact rest. This lack of WM recovery could potentially contribute to cumulative WM changes with subsequent RHI exposures. PMID:24740265

  2. LONG-TERM OUTCOME OF THE DIFFERENT TREATMENT ALTERNATIVES FOR RECURRENT AND PERSISTENT CUSHING DISEASE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinosa-de-Los-Monteros, Ana Laura; Sosa-Eroza, Ernesto; Espinosa, Etual; Mendoza, Victoria; Arreola, Rocio; Mercado, Moises

    2017-07-01

    Treatment alternatives for persistent and recurrent Cushing disease (CD) include pituitary surgical re-intervention, radiation therapy (RT), pharmacotherapy, and bilateral adrenalectomy (BA). The decision of which of these alternatives is better suited for the individual patient rests on clinical judgment and the availability of resources. This retrospective cohort study was performed at a referral center to evaluate the long-term efficacy of different secondary interventions for persistent and recurrent CD. We evaluated the hospital charts of 84 patients (77 female, median age 34 years, median follow up 6.3 years) with CD diagnosed, treated, and followed at our multidisciplinary clinic according to a pre-established protocol. Of the 81 patients who were initially treated with transsphenoidal surgery (TSS), 61.7% had a long-lasting remission, 16% had persistent disease, and 22% achieved remission but relapsed during follow-up. The most frequently used secondary treatment was pituitary re-intervention, followed by ketoconazole, RT, and BA. Early remissions were observed in 66.6% of the re-operated and in 58.3% of the radiated patients; long-lasting remission was achieved in 33.3% and 41.6% of these patients, respectively. Nelson syndrome developed in 41.6% of the patients who underwent BA. Upon last follow-up, 88% of all the patients are in remission, and 9.5% are biochemically controlled with ketoconazole. The efficacy of treatment alternatives for recurrent or persistent CD varies considerably among patients and multiple interventions are often required to achieve long-lasting remission. ACTH = adrenocorticotrophic hormone; BA = bilateral adrenalectomy; CBG = cabergoline; CD = Cushing disease; CV = coefficient of variation; DXM = dexamethasone; IQR = interquartile range; RT = radiation therapy; SRS = stereotactic radiosurgery; TSS = transsphenoidal surgery; UFC = urinary free cortisol; ULN = upper limit of normal.

  3. An assessment of the long-term persistence of prion infectivity in aquatic environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marín-Moreno, Alba; Espinosa, Juan-Carlos; Fernández-Borges, Natalia; Píquer, Juan; Girones, Rosina; Andreoletti, Olivier; Torres, Juan-María

    2016-01-01

    The environment plays a key role in horizontal transmission of prion diseases, since prions are extremely resistant to classical inactivation procedures. In prior work, we observed the high stability of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectivity when these prions were incubated in aqueous media such as phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) or wastewater for nearly nine months. As a continuation of this experiment, the same samples were maintained in PBS or wastewater for five additional years and residual BSE infectivity was assessed in bovine PrP C transgenic mice. Over this long time period (more than six years), BSE infectivity was reduced by three and one orders of magnitude in wastewater and PBS respectively. To rule out a possible agent specific effect, sheep scrapie prions were subjected to the same experimental protocol, using eight years as the experimental end-point. No significant reduction in scrapie infectivity was observed over the first nine months of wastewater incubation while PBS incubation for eight years only produced a two logarithmic unit reduction in infectivity. By contrast, the dynamics of PrP Res persistence was different, disappearing progressively over the first year. The long persistence of prion infectivity observed in this study for two different agents provides supporting evidence of the assumed high stability of these agents in aquatic environments and that environmental processes or conventional wastewater treatments with low retention times would have little impact on prion infectivity. These results could have great repercussions in terms of risk assessment and safety for animals and human populations. - Highlights: • Prion infectivity resists long term incubations in aquatic environments. • Infectivity persistence in wastewater is reduced when compared to PBS. • In this study PrPRes fails as a marker for prion detection. • Mice bioassay is the most powerful tool for assessing prion presence. • Wastewater conventional

  4. An assessment of the long-term persistence of prion infectivity in aquatic environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marín-Moreno, Alba; Espinosa, Juan-Carlos; Fernández-Borges, Natalia; Píquer, Juan [Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal, CISA-INIA, Carretera Algete-El Casar S/n, Valdeolmos, 28130 Madrid (Spain); Girones, Rosina [Department of Microbiology, University of Barcelona, Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Andreoletti, Olivier [UMR INRA-ENVT 1225, Interactions Hôte Agent Pathogène, Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse, Toulouse (France); Torres, Juan-María, E-mail: jmtorres@inia.es [Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal, CISA-INIA, Carretera Algete-El Casar S/n, Valdeolmos, 28130 Madrid (Spain)

    2016-11-15

    The environment plays a key role in horizontal transmission of prion diseases, since prions are extremely resistant to classical inactivation procedures. In prior work, we observed the high stability of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectivity when these prions were incubated in aqueous media such as phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) or wastewater for nearly nine months. As a continuation of this experiment, the same samples were maintained in PBS or wastewater for five additional years and residual BSE infectivity was assessed in bovine PrP{sup C} transgenic mice. Over this long time period (more than six years), BSE infectivity was reduced by three and one orders of magnitude in wastewater and PBS respectively. To rule out a possible agent specific effect, sheep scrapie prions were subjected to the same experimental protocol, using eight years as the experimental end-point. No significant reduction in scrapie infectivity was observed over the first nine months of wastewater incubation while PBS incubation for eight years only produced a two logarithmic unit reduction in infectivity. By contrast, the dynamics of PrP{sup Res} persistence was different, disappearing progressively over the first year. The long persistence of prion infectivity observed in this study for two different agents provides supporting evidence of the assumed high stability of these agents in aquatic environments and that environmental processes or conventional wastewater treatments with low retention times would have little impact on prion infectivity. These results could have great repercussions in terms of risk assessment and safety for animals and human populations. - Highlights: • Prion infectivity resists long term incubations in aquatic environments. • Infectivity persistence in wastewater is reduced when compared to PBS. • In this study PrPRes fails as a marker for prion detection. • Mice bioassay is the most powerful tool for assessing prion presence. • Wastewater

  5. Persistence of type-specific human papillomavirus infection and increased long-term risk of cervical cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui-Chi; Schiffman, Mark; Lin, Ching-Yu; Pan, Mei-Hung; You, San-Lin; Chuang, Li-Chung; Hsieh, Chang-Yao; Liaw, Kai-Li; Hsing, Ann W; Chen, Chien-Jen

    2011-09-21

    Human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence is the pivotal event in cervical carcinogenesis. We followed a large-scale community-based cohort for 16 years to investigate the role of genotype-specific HPV persistence in predicting cervical cancer including invasive and in situ carcinoma. At the baseline examination in 1991-1992, 11,923 participants (aged 30-65 years) consented to HPV testing and cytology; 6923 participants were reexamined in 1993-1995. For HPV testing, we used a polymerase chain reaction-based assay that detected 39 HPV types. Women who developed cervical cancer were identified from cancer and death registries. Cumulative risks for developing cervical cancer among infected and persistently infected women were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Of 10,123 women who were initially cytologically normal, 68 developed cervical cancer. The 16-year cumulative risks of subsequent cervical cancer for women with HPV16, HPV58 (without HPV16), or other carcinogenic HPV types (without HPV16 or HPV58) were 13.5%, 10.3%, and 4.0%, respectively, compared with 0.26% for HPV-negative women. Women with type-specific persistence of any carcinogenic HPV had greatly increased risk compared with women who were HPV-negative at both visits (hazard ratio = 75.4, 95% confidence interval = 31.8 to 178.9). The cumulative cervical cancer risks following persistent carcinogenic HPV infections increased with age: The risks were 5.5%, 14.4%, and 18.1% for women aged 30-44 years, 45-54 years, and 55 years and older, respectively. However, newly acquired infections were associated with a low risk of cervical cancer regardless of age. HPV negativity was associated with a very low long-term risk of cervical cancer. Persistent detection of HPV among cytologically normal women greatly increased risk. Thus, it is useful to perform repeated HPV testing following an initial positive test.

  6. Persistent muscle fiber regeneration in long term denervation. Past, present, future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugo Carraro

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite the ravages of long term denervation there is structural and ultrastructural evidence for survival of muscle fibers in mammals, with some fibers surviving at least ten months in rodents and 3-6 years in humans. Further, in rodents there is evidence that muscle fibers may regenerate even after repeated damage in the absence of the nerve, and that this potential is maintained for several months after denervation. While in animal models permanently denervated muscle sooner or later loses the ability to contract, the muscles may maintain their size and ability to function if electrically stimulated soon after denervation. Whether in mammals, humans included, this is a result of persistent de novo formation of muscle fibers is an open issue we would like to explore in this review. During the past decade, we have studied muscle biopsies from the quadriceps muscle of Spinal Cord Injury (SCI patients suffering with Conus and Cauda Equina syndrome, a condition that fully and irreversibly disconnects skeletal muscle fibers from their damaged innervating motor neurons. We have demonstrated that human denervated muscle fibers survive years of denervation and can be rescued from severe atrophy by home-based Functional Electrical Stimulation (h-bFES. Using immunohistochemistry with both non-stimulated and the h-bFES stimulated human muscle biopsies, we have observed the persistent presence of muscle fibers which are positive to labeling by an antibody which specifically recognizes the embryonic myosin heavy chain (MHCemb. Relative to the total number of fibers present, only a small percentage of these MHCemb positive fibers are detected, suggesting that they are regenerating muscle fibers and not pre-existing myofibers re-expressing embryonic isoforms. Although embryonic isoforms of acetylcholine receptors are known to be re-expressed and to spread from the end-plate to the sarcolemma of muscle fibers in early phases of muscle denervation, we suggest

  7. Regulatory components for treating persistent pain in long-term care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planton, Jonathan; Edlund, Barbara J

    2010-04-01

    Persistent or chronic pain is frequently reported by older adults and has the potential to dramatically influence quality of life. Estimates indicate that 25% to 50% of community-dwelling older adults experience this kind of pain. This rate is even higher in long-term care facilities, where 50% to 75% of residents have chronic pain syndromes that are untreated or undertreated. To promote optimal pain management and enumerate the responsibilities of skilled nursing facilities to effectively treat and prevent pain, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released a new pain management surveyor guidance, F-Tag 309, which endorses the presence of an interdisciplinary team approach to pain management that involves the resident. The guidance delineates pain management principles, the need for ongoing professional education in all components of pain management, and emphasizes the important role of appropriate pharmacological treatment in conjunction with nonpharmacological interventions to aggressively manage pain. This directive will help skilled nursing facilities achieve optimal pain management for their residents. Copyright 2010, SLACK Incorporated.

  8. Conditioned taste aversion modifies persistently the subsequent induction of neocortical long-term potentiation in vivo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Durán, Luis F; Castillo, Diana V; Moguel-González, Minerva; Escobar, Martha L

    2011-05-01

    The ability of neurons to modify their synaptic strength in an activity-dependent manner has a crucial role in learning and memory processes. It has been proposed that homeostatic forms of plasticity might provide the global regulation necessary to maintain synaptic strength and plasticity within a functional dynamic range. Similarly, it is considered that the capacity of synapses to express plastic changes is itself subject to variation dependent on previous experience. In particular, training in several behavioral tasks modifies the possibility to induce long-term potentiation (LTP). Our previous studies in the insular cortex (IC) have shown that induction of LTP in the basolateral amygdaloid nucleus (Bla)-IC projection previous to conditioned taste aversion (CTA) training enhances the retention of this task. The aim of the present study was to analyze whether CTA training modifies the ability to induce subsequent LTP in the Bla-IC projection in vivo. Thus, CTA trained rats received high frequency stimulation in the Bla-IC projection in order to induce LTP 48, 72, 96 and 120 h after the aversion test. Our results show that CTA training prevents the subsequent induction of LTP in the Bla-IC projection, for at least 120 h after CTA training. We also showed that pharmacological inhibition of CTA consolidation with anisomycin (1 μl/side; 100 μg/μl) prevents the CTA effect on IC-LTP. These findings reveal that CTA training produces a persistent change in the ability to induce subsequent LTP in the Bla-IC projection in a protein-synthesis dependent manner, suggesting that changes in the ability to induce subsequent synaptic plasticity contribute to the formation and persistence of aversive memories. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Persistence of radiation-induced chromosome aberrations in a long-term cell culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duran, Assumpta; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Caballín, María Rosa; Ribas, Montserrat; Barrios, Leonardo

    2009-04-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the persistence of chromosome aberrations induced by X rays. FISH painting and mFISH techniques were applied to long-term cultures of irradiated cells. With painting, at 2 Gy the frequency of apparently simple translocations remained almost invariable during all the culture, whereas at 4 Gy a rapid decline was observed between the first and the second samples, followed by a slight decrease until the end of the culture. Apparently simple dicentrics and complex aberrations disappeared after the first sample at 2 and 4 Gy. By mFISH, at 2 Gy the frequency of complete plus one-way translocations remained invariable between the first and last sample, but at 4 Gy a 60% decline was observed. True incomplete simple translocations disappeared at 2 and 4 Gy, indicating that incompleteness could be a factor to consider when the persistence of translocations is analyzed. The analysis by mFISH showed that the frequency of complex aberrations and their complexity increased with dose and tended to disappear in the last sample. Our results indicate that the influence of dose on the decrease in the frequency of simple translocations with time postirradiation cannot be fully explained by the disappearance of true incomplete translocations and complex aberrations. The chromosome involvement was random for radiation-induced exchange aberrations and non-random for total aberrations. Chromosome 7 showed the highest deviations from expected, being less and more involved than expected in the first and last samples, respectively. Some preferential chromosome-chromosome associations were observed, including a coincidence with a cluster from radiogenic chromosome aberrations described in other studies.

  10. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Persistent hyperparathyroidism as a risk factor for long-term graft failure: the need to discuss indication for parathyroidectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araujo, Maria Júlia Correia Lima Nepomuceno; Ramalho, Janaina Almeida Mota; Elias, Rosilene Motta; Jorgetti, Vanda; Nahas, William; Custodio, Melani; Moysés, Rosa M A; David-Neto, Elias

    2018-01-10

    Although a successful kidney transplant (KTx) improves most of the mineral and bone disorders (MBD) produced by chronic kidney disease (CKD), hyperparathyroidism may persist (pHPT). Current guidelines recommend parathyroidectomy if serum parathormone is persistently elevated 1 year after KTx, because pHPT has been recently associated with poor graft outcomes. However, whether patients with pHPT and adequate renal function are at risk for long-term graft failure is unknown. Longitudinal follow-up of 911 adults submitted to KTx between January 2005 and December 2014, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 30 mL/min 1 year after surgery. Clinical and laboratory data were collected from electronic database. Graft failure was defined as return to dialysis. Overall, 62% of the patients were classified as having pHPT 1 year after KTx. After a mean follow-up time of 47 months, there were 59 graft failures (49 in pHPT and 10 in non-pHPT group, P = .003). At last follow-up, death-censored graft survival was lower in the pHPT group (P = .009), even after adjustment for age at KTx, donor age, donor type, acute rejection, parathyroidectomy, and eGFR at 1 year after transplantation (odds ratio [OR] 1.99; 1.004-3.971; P = .049). A PTH of 150 pg/mL at 6 months was the best cutoff to predict pHPT at 1 year (specificity = 92.1%). Having pHPT after a successful KTx increases the long-term risk of death-censored graft failure. This result highlights the need for better recognition and management of CKD-MBD before and during the first year after KTx, and opens a discussion on the more appropriate timing to perform parathyroidectomy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Cell-Specific PKM Isoforms Contribute to the Maintenance of Different Forms of Persistent Long-Term Synaptic Plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jiangyuan; Adler, Kerry; Farah, Carole Abi; Hastings, Margaret H; Sossin, Wayne S; Schacher, Samuel

    2017-03-08

    Multiple kinase activations contribute to long-term synaptic plasticity, a cellular mechanism mediating long-term memory. The sensorimotor synapse of Aplysia expresses different forms of long-term facilitation (LTF)-nonassociative and associative LTF-that require the timely activation of kinases, including protein kinase C (PKC). It is not known which PKC isoforms in the sensory neuron or motor neuron L7 are required to sustain each form of LTF. We show that different PKMs, the constitutively active isoforms of PKCs generated by calpain cleavage, in the sensory neuron and L7 are required to maintain each form of LTF. Different PKMs or calpain isoforms were blocked by overexpressing specific dominant-negative constructs in either presynaptic or postsynaptic neurons. Blocking either PKM Apl I in L7, or PKM Apl II or PKM Apl III in the sensory neuron 2 d after 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) treatment reversed persistent nonassociative LTF. In contrast, blocking either PKM Apl II or PKM Apl III in L7, or PKM Apl II in the sensory neuron 2 d after paired stimuli reversed persistent associative LTF. Blocking either classical calpain or atypical small optic lobe (SOL) calpain 2 d after 5-HT treatment or paired stimuli did not disrupt the maintenance of persistent LTF. Soon after 5-HT treatment or paired stimuli, however, blocking classical calpain inhibited the expression of persistent associative LTF, while blocking SOL calpain inhibited the expression of persistent nonassociative LTF. Our data suggest that different stimuli activate different calpains that generate specific sets of PKMs in each neuron whose constitutive activities sustain long-term synaptic plasticity. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Persistent synaptic plasticity contributes to the maintenance of long-term memory. Although various kinases such as protein kinase C (PKC) contribute to the expression of long-term plasticity, little is known about how constitutive activation of specific kinase isoforms sustains long-term

  13. Prediction on long-term mean and mean square pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, S; Lamb, R G; Seinfeld, J H

    1976-01-01

    The general problem of predicting long-term average (say yearly) pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere is formulated. The pollutant concentration can be viewed as a random process, the complete description of which requires knowledge of its probability density function, which is unknown. The mean concentration is the first moment of the concentration distribution, and at present there exist a number of models for predicting the long-term mean concentration of an inert pollutant. The second moment, or mean square concentration, indicates additional features of the distribution, such as the level of fluctuations about the mean. In the paper a model proposed by Lamb for the long-term mean concentration is reviewed, and a new model for prediction of the long-term mean square concentration of an inert air pollutant is derived. The properties and uses of the model are discussed, and the equations defining the model are presented in a form for direct application to an urban area.

  14. Persistent negative illness perceptions despite long-term biochemical control of acromegaly: novel application of the drawing test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tiemensma, Jitske; Pereira, Alberto M.; Romijn, Johannes A.; Broadbent, Elizabeth; Biermasz, Nienke R.; Kaptein, Adrian A.

    2015-01-01

    Context and objective: Patients with acromegaly have persistent complaints despite long-term biochemical control. Drawings can be used to assess patients' perceptions about their disease. We aimed to explore the utility of the drawing test and its relation to illness perceptions and quality of life

  15. Long-term persistence, density dependence and effects of climate change on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary D. Grossman; Gary Sundin; Robert E. Ratajczak

    2016-01-01

    SummaryWe used long-term population data for rosyside dace (Clinostomus funduloides), a numerically dominant member of a stochastically organised fish assemblage, to evaluate the relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent processes to population...

  16. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

    2015-09-01

    It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

  17. Distinguishing patterns in the dynamics of long-term medication use by Markov analysis: beyond persistence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lammers Jan-Willem J

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to accurately distinguish gaps of varying length in drug treatment for chronic conditions from discontinuation without resuming therapy, short-term observation does not suffice. Thus, the use of inhalation corticosteroids (ICS in the long-term, during a ten-year period is investigated. To describe medication use as a continuum, taking into account the timeliness and consistency of refilling, a Markov model is proposed. Methods Patients, that filled at least one prescription in 1993, were selected from the PHARMO medical record linkage system (RLS containing >95% prescription dispensings per patient originating from community pharmacy records of 6 medium-sized cities in the Netherlands. The probabilities of continuous use, the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in each year of follow-up, and medication free periods were assessed by Markov analysis. Stratified analysis according to new use was performed. Results The transition probabilities of the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in the subsequent year of follow-up, were assessed for each year of follow-up and for the total study period. The change of transition probabilities in time was evaluated, e.g. the probability of continuing ICS use of starters in the first two years (51% of follow-up increased to more than 70% in the following years. The probabilities of different patterns of medication use were assessed: continuous use (7.7%, cumulative medication gaps (1–8 years 69.1% and discontinuing (23.2% during ten-year follow-up for new users. New users had lower probability of continuous use (7.7% and more variability in ICS refill patterns than previous users (56%. Conclusion In addition to well-established methods in epidemiology to ascertain compliance and persistence, a Markov model could be useful to further specify the variety of possible patterns of medication use within the continuum of adherence. This Markov model describes variation in

  18. Remaining uncertainties in predicting long-term performance of nuclear waste glass from experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grambow, B.

    1994-01-01

    The current knowledge on the glass dissolution mechanism and the representation of glass dissolution concepts within overall repository performance assessment models are briefly summarized and uncertainties related to mechanism, radionuclide chemistry and parameters are discussed. Understanding of the major glass dissolution processes has been significantly increased in recent years. Long-term glass stability is related to the long-term maintenance of silica saturated conditions. The behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass has not been sufficiently and results do no yet allow meaningful predictions. Conserving long-term predictions of glass matrix dissolution as upper limit for radionuclide release can be made with sufficient confidence, however these estimations generally result in a situation where the barrier function of the glass is masked by the efficiency of the geologic barrier. Realistic long-term predictions may show that the borosilicate waste glass contributes to overall repository safety to a much larger extent than indicated by overconservatism. Today realistic predictions remain highly uncertain and much more research work is necessary. In particular, the long-term rate under silica saturated conditions needs to be understood and the behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass deserves more systematic investigations

  19. Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  1. Persistent negative illness perceptions despite long-term biochemical control of acromegaly: novel application of the drawing test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiemensma, Jitske; Pereira, Alberto M; Romijn, Johannes A; Broadbent, Elizabeth; Biermasz, Nienke R; Kaptein, Adrian A

    2015-05-01

    Patients with acromegaly have persistent complaints despite long-term biochemical control. Drawings can be used to assess patients' perceptions about their disease. We aimed to explore the utility of the drawing test and its relation to illness perceptions and quality of life (QoL) in patients after long-term remission of acromegaly. A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate the utility of the drawing test. A total of 50 patients after long-term remission (mean±s.e.m., 16±1.2 years) of acromegaly were included in this study. Patients completed the drawing test (two retrospective drawings of their body perception before acromegaly and during the active phase of acromegaly, and one drawing on the current condition after long-term remission), Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised, Physical Symptom Checklist, EuroQoL-5D, and AcroQoL. Patients perceived a dramatic change in body size during the active state of the disease compared with the healthy state before the awareness of acromegaly. Patients reported that their body did not completely return to the original proportions after long-term remission. In addition, larger drawings indicated more negative consequences (Pdrawings also indicated more impaired QoL, especially disease-specific QoL (all Pdrawing test, illness perceptions, and QoL. The drawing test appears to be a novel and relatively easy tool to assess the perception of patients after long-term remission of acromegaly. The assessment of drawings may enable health care providers to appreciate the perceptions of patients with long-term remission of acromegaly, and enable discussion of symptoms and remission. © 2015 European Society of Endocrinology.

  2. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qijie

    2015-08-01

    The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

  3. Long-Term Persistence of Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the Causative Agent of White-Nose Syndrome, in the Absence of Bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyt, Joseph R; Langwig, Kate E; Okoniewski, Joseph; Frick, Winifred F; Stone, Ward B; Kilpatrick, A Marm

    2015-06-01

    Wildlife diseases have been implicated in the declines and extinctions of several species. The ability of a pathogen to persist outside its host, existing as an "environmental reservoir", can exacerbate the impact of a disease and increase the likelihood of host extinction. Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome in bats, has been found in cave soil during the summer when hibernating bats had likely been absent for several months. However, whether the pathogen can persist over multiple years in the absence of bats is unknown, and long-term persistence of the pathogen can influence whether hibernacula where bats have been locally extirpated due to disease can be subsequently recolonized. Here, we show that P. destructans is capable of long-term persistence in the laboratory in the absence of bats. We cultured P. destructans from dried agar plates that had been kept at 5°C and low humidity conditions (30-40% RH) for more than 5 years. This suggests that P. destructans can persist in the absence of bats for long periods which may prevent the recolonization of hibernation, sites where bat populations were extirpated. This increases the extinction risk of bats affected by this disease.

  4. Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spruyt, A.; Lemaigre, V.; Salhi, B.; van Gucht, D.; Tibboel, H.; van Bockstaele, B.; de Houwer, J.; van Meerbeeck, J.; Nackaerts, K.

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. Objectives: The main objective of

  5. Serum YKL-40 predicts long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harutyunyan, Marina; Gøtze, Jens P; Winkel, Per

    2013-01-01

    We investigated whether the inflammatory biomarker YKL-40 could improve the long-term prediction of death made by common risk factors plus high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal-pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD)....

  6. Early Posttransplant Tryptophan Metabolism Predicts Long-term Outcome of Human Kidney Transplantation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vavrincova-Yaghi, Diana; Seelen, Marc A.; Kema, Ido P.; Deelman, Leo E.; Heuvel, van den Marius; Breukelman, Henk; Van den Eynde, Benoit J.; Henning, Rob H.; van Goor, Harry; Sandovici, Maria

    Background. Chronic transplant dysfunction (CTD) is the leading cause of long-term loss of the renal allograft. So far, no single test is available to reliably predict the risk for CTD. Monitoring of tryptophan (trp) metabolism through indoleamine 2.3-dioxygenase (IDO) has been previously proposed

  7. Prediction method of long-term reliability in improving residual stresses by means of surface finishing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sera, Takehiko; Hirano, Shinro; Chigusa, Naoki; Okano, Shigetaka; Saida, Kazuyoshi; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

    2012-01-01

    Surface finishing methods, such as Water Jet Peening (WJP), have been applied to welds in some major components of nuclear power plants as a counter measure to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). In addition, the methods of surface finishing (buffing treatment) is being standardized, and thus the buffing treatment has been also recognized as the well-established method of improving stress. On the other hand, the long-term stability of peening techniques has been confirmed by accelerated test. However, the effectiveness of stress improvement by surface treatment is limited to thin layers and the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal beneath the surface is not strictly taken into account for long-term stability. This paper, therefore, describes the accelerated tests, which confirmed that the long-term stability of the layer subjected to buffing treatment was equal to that subjected to WJP. The long-term reliability of very thin stress improved layer was also confirmed through a trial evaluation by thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis, even if the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal was excessively taken into account. Considering the above findings, an approach is proposed for constructing the prediction method of the long-term reliability of stress improvement by surface finishing. (author)

  8. Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chia-Nan; Chen, Rong-Her; Chen, Kuo-Sheng

    2006-02-01

    The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

  9. Prediction of long term stability for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Koide, Hitoshi; Kono, Itoshi

    1998-01-01

    On geological disposal of radioactive wastes, study on prediction of diastrophism has been paid many attentions, and then long term future prediction ranging from some thousands to some tends thousands years may be necessary for some target nuclides. As there are various methods in the future prediction, it is essential to use a computational dynamic procedure to conduct a quantitative prediction. However, it causes an obstacle to advancement of the prediction method that informations on deep underground have a lot of uncertain elements because of their few and indirect data. In this paper, a long term prediction procedure of diastrophism relating to geological disposal of radioactive wastes with low level but isolation terms required to some thousands years was investigated and each one example was shown on flow of the investigation and its modeling method by using the finite element method. It seems to be a key to upgrade accuracy of future diastrophism prediction how an earth fault can be analyzed. And, as the diastrophism is a long term and complex phenomenon and its prediction has many uncertain elements, it is important to judge comprehensively results of its numerical analysis geologically and on rock engineering. (G.K.)

  10. Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett W Pinsky

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to accurately predict a population′s long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population′s long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS projections were calculated and com-pared with the population′s actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1 fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A and (2 uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B. Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted sur-vival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%. Excellent predictability (41.3% can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population′s long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

  11. Long-term Creep Life Prediction for Type 316LN Stainless Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Ryu, Woo Seog; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bok

    2007-01-01

    Since Sodium Fast Cooled Reactor (SFR) components are designed to be use for more than 30 years at a high temperature of 550 .deg. C, one of the most important properties of these components is the long term creep behavior. To accurately predict the long-term creep life of the components, it is essential to achieve reliable long-term test data beyond their design life. But, it is difficult to actually obtain long duration data because it is time-consuming work. So far, a variety of time-temperature parameters (TTPs) have been developed to predict a long-term creep life from shorter-time tests at higher temperatures. Among them, the Larson-Miller, the Orr-Sherby-Dorn, the Manson-Harferd and the Manson-Succop parameters have been typically used. None of these parameters has an overwhelming preference, and they have certain inherent restrictions imposed on their data in the application of the TTPs parameters. Meanwhile, it has been reported that the Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) proposed by Manson and Ensign has a greater flexibility for a creep rupture analysis. Thus, the MCM will be useful as another approach. Until now, the applicability of the MCM has not been investigated for type 316LN SS because of insufficient creep data. In this paper, the MCM was applied to predict a long-term creep life of type 316LN stainless steel (SS). Lots of creep rupture data was collected through literature surveys and the experimental data of KAERI. Using the short-term experimental data for under 2,000 hours, a longer-time rupture above 105 hours was predicted by the MCM at temperatures from 550 .deg. C to 800 .deg. C

  12. Improvement of cardiac function persists long term with medical therapy for left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, David; Chang, Richard; Umakanthan, Branavan; Stoletniy, Liset N; Heywood, J Thomas

    2007-09-01

    In certain patients with left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction, improvements in cardiac function are seen after initiation of medical therapy; however, the long-term stability of ventricular function in such patients is not well described. We retrospectively analyzed 171 patients who had a baseline ejection fraction of 45% or less, a follow-up echocardiogram at 2 to 12 months after initiation of medical therapy, and a final echocardiogram. We found that 48.5% of the patients demonstrated initial improvements in LV function after initiation of medical therapy, and the improvements appear to be sustained (88% of patients) at 44 +/- 21 months follow-up. A nonischemic etiology and younger age were the only independent predictors of change of LV ejection fraction of 10 or more at a mean 8.4 +/- 3.4 months after optimal medical therapy. Our study revealed a trend toward improved long-term survival in individuals with an early improvement in LV ejection fraction with medical therapy, especially in those with sustained improvement.

  13. Predicting nitrogen and acidity effects on long-term dynamics of dissolved organic matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, E.C.; Tipping, E.; Posch, M.; Oulehle, F.; Cooper, D.M.; Jones, T.G.; Burden, A.; Hall, J.; Evans, C.D.

    2014-01-01

    Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes may relate to changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution. We integrated existing models of vegetation growth and soil organic matter turnover, acid–base dynamics, and organic matter mobility, to form the ‘MADOC’ model. After calibrating parameters governing interactions between pH and DOC dissolution using control treatments on two field experiments, MADOC reproduced responses of pH and DOC to additions of acidifying and alkalising solutions. Long-term trends in a range of acid waters were also reproduced. The model suggests that the sustained nature of observed DOC increases can best be explained by a continuously replenishing potentially-dissolved carbon pool, rather than dissolution of a large accumulated store. The simulations informed the development of hypotheses that: DOC increase is related to plant productivity increase as well as to pH change; DOC increases due to nitrogen pollution will become evident, and be sustained, after soil pH has stabilised. -- Highlights: • A model of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was developed by integrating simple models • MADOC simulates effects of sulphur and nitrogen deposition and interactions with pH. • Responses of DOC and pH to experimental acidification and alkalisation were reproduced. • The persistence of DOC increases will depend on continued supply of potential DOC. • DOC fluxes are likely determined by plant productivity as well as soil solution pH. -- Effects of changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution on dissolved organic carbon fluxes are predicted by simulating soil organic matter cycling, the release of potentially-dissolved carbon, and interactions with soil pH

  14. Predicting Discharge to Institutional Long-Term Care After Stroke: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Jennifer K; Ferguson, Eilidh E C; Barugh, Amanda J; Walesby, Katherine E; MacLullich, Alasdair M J; Shenkin, Susan D; Quinn, Terry J

    2018-01-01

    Stroke is a leading cause of disability worldwide, and a significant proportion of stroke survivors require long-term institutional care. Understanding who cannot be discharged home is important for health and social care planning. Our aim was to establish predictive factors for discharge to institutional care after hospitalization for stroke. We registered and conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42015023497) of observational studies. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL Plus to February 2017. Quantitative synthesis was performed where data allowed. Acute and rehabilitation hospitals. Adults hospitalized for stroke who were newly admitted directly to long-term institutional care at the time of hospital discharge. Factors associated with new institutionalization. From 10,420 records, we included 18 studies (n = 32,139 participants). The studies were heterogeneous and conducted in Europe, North America, and East Asia. Eight studies were at high risk of selection bias. The proportion of those surviving to discharge who were newly discharged to long-term care varied from 7% to 39% (median 17%, interquartile range 12%), and the model of care received in the long-term care setting was not defined. Older age and greater stroke severity had a consistently positive association with the need for long-term care admission. Individuals who had a severe stroke were 26 times as likely to be admitted to long-term care than those who had a minor stroke. Individuals aged 65 and older had a risk of stroke that was three times as great as that of younger individuals. Potentially modifiable factors were rarely examined. Age and stroke severity are important predictors of institutional long-term care admission directly from the hospital after an acute stroke. Potentially modifiable factors should be the target of future research. Stroke outcome studies should report discharge destination, defining the model of care provided in the long-term care setting.

  15. Medication persistence with long-term, specific grass pollen immunotherapy measured by prescription renewal rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieber, J; De Geest, S; Shah-Hosseini, K; Mösges, R

    2011-04-01

    We assessed medication persistence using prescription renewal rates for grass pollen specific immunotherapy (SIT) in a representative population of patients in Germany to evaluate whether the perception of superior persistence for the subcutaneous route compared to the sublingual route could be confirmed in clinical practice. Individual prescriptions for allergen immunotherapy were extracted from a national prescription database (INSIGHT Health) and followed over 3 years on a per-patient basis. However, patients' medical history and treatment schedules were not available for analysis. Products were identified by the national drug code (PZN number) and grouped to either subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) with natural extract injections, SCIT with modified allergens (allergoids) or sublingual immunotherapy (SLIT) with natural pollen extract solutions. Persistence was defined as at least one prescription of the individual drug in the respective years. A total of 1409 patients started SIT in 2005 (112, 695, and 602 for natural extract SLIT, natural extract SCIT, and allergoid SCIT, respectively). In 2006, 71%, 55%, and 59% of those patients had at least one renewal prescription of natural extract SLIT, natural extract SCIT, and allergoid SCIT, respectively, as well as 51%, 34%, and 39% in 2007. In both years, persistence with natural extract SLIT was significantly higher than with natural extract SCIT (p = 0.0015 for 2006, p = 0.0003 for 2007) and allergoid SCIT (p = 0.0152 for 2006, p = 0.0111 for 2007). There were no significant differences between the two SCIT groups. Medication persistence with grass pollen SIT in a representative sample of patients in Germany was similar to published medication persistence in asthma and COPD patients. The sublingual application route shows significantly better persistency than the subcutaneous route with native allergens or allergoids.

  16. Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruyt, Adriaan; Lemaigre, Valentine; Salhi, Bihiyga; Van Gucht, Dinska; Tibboel, Helen; Van Bockstaele, Bram; De Houwer, Jan; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; Nackaerts, Kristiaan

    2015-07-01

    It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues and long-term relapse in abstaining smokers. Implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues were assessed by means of the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and the evaluative priming task (EPT). Both measures were completed by a group of smokers who volunteered to quit smoking (patient group) and a group of nonsmokers (control group). Participants in the patient group completed these measures twice: once prior to smoking cessation and once after smoking cessation. Relapse was assessed by means of short telephone survey, 6 months after completion of the second test session. EPT scores obtained prior to smoking cessation were related to long-term relapse and correlated with self-reported nicotine dependence as well as daily cigarette consumption. In contrast, none of the behavioral outcome measures were found to correlate with the IAT scores. These findings corroborate the idea that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues are critically involved in long-term relapse. A potential explanation for the divergent findings obtained with the IAT and EPT is provided.

  17. Reduced Right Ventricular Function Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Re-Hospitalization after Cardiac Surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leela K Lella

    Full Text Available The significance of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF, independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG and valve procedures remains unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the significance of abnormal RVEF by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR, independent of LVEF in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve surgery.From 2007 to 2009, 109 consecutive patients (mean age, 66 years; 38% female were referred for pre-operative CMR. Abnormal RVEF and LVEF were considered 30 days outcomes included, cardiac re-hospitalization, worsening congestive heart failure and mortality. Mean clinical follow up was 14 months.Forty-eight patients had reduced RVEF (mean 25% and 61 patients had normal RVEF (mean 50% (p<0.001. Fifty-four patients had reduced LVEF (mean 30% and 55 patients had normal LVEF (mean 59% (p<0.001. Patients with reduced RVEF had a higher incidence of long-term cardiac re-hospitalization vs. patients with normal RVEF (31% vs.13%, p<0.05. Abnormal RVEF was a predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization (HR 3.01 [CI 1.5-7.9], p<0.03. Reduced LVEF did not influence long-term cardiac re-hospitalization.Abnormal RVEF is a stronger predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization than abnormal LVEF in patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve procedures.

  18. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2018-02-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

  19. Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P

    2017-09-27

    Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

  1. Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekonomou, L.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper artificial neural networks (ANN) are addressed in order the Greek long-term energy consumption to be predicted. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) has been used for this purpose by testing several possible architectures in order to be selected the one with the best generalizing ability. Actual recorded input and output data that influence long-term energy consumption were used in the training, validation and testing process. The developed ANN model is used for the prediction of 2005-2008, 2010, 2012 and 2015 Greek energy consumption. The produced ANN results for years 2005-2008 were compared with the results produced by a linear regression method, a support vector machine method and with real energy consumption records showing a great accuracy. The proposed approach can be useful in the effective implementation of energy policies, since accurate predictions of energy consumption affect the capital investment, the environmental quality, the revenue analysis, the market research management, while conserve at the same time the supply security. Furthermore it constitutes an accurate tool for the Greek long-term energy consumption prediction problem, which up today has not been faced effectively.

  2. Long-Term Prediction of Severe Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Marie Moth; Færch, Louise; Thorsteinsson, Birger

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prediction of risk of severe hypoglycemia (SH) in patients with type 1 diabetes is important to prevent future episodes, but it is unknown if it is possible to predict the long-term risk of SH. The aim of the study is to assess if long-term prediction of SH is possible in type 1...... diabetes. METHODS: A follow-up study was performed with 98 patients with type 1 diabetes. At baseline and at follow-up, the patients filled in a questionnaire about diabetes history and complications, number of SH in the preceding year and state of awareness, and HbA1c and C-peptide levels were measured......-up. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term prediction of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes was not possible, although baseline hypoglycemia unawareness tended to remain a predictor for risk of SH at follow-up. Therefore, it is important repeatedly to assess the different risk factors of SH to determine the actual risk....

  3. Long-term effectiveness of localization studies and intraoperative parathormone monitoring in patients undergoing reoperative parathyroidectomy for persistent or recurrent hyperparathyroidism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, Punam P; Farra, Josefina C; Allan, Bassan J; Lew, John I

    2015-07-01

    Reoperative parathyroidectomy (RPTX) for persistent or recurrent hyperparathyroidism is associated with a high rate of operative failure. The long-term effectiveness of RPTX using localization studies and intraoperative parathormone monitoring (IPM) was examined. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from patients undergoing targeted RPTX with IPM for persistent or recurrent hyperparathyroidism was performed. Persistent hyperparathyroidism was defined as elevated calcium and parathormone (PTH) levels above normal range less than 6 months after parathyroidectomy. Recurrent hyperparathyroidism was defined as elevated calcium and PTH levels greater than 6 months after successful parathyroidectomy. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) for sestamibi, surgeon-performed ultrasound, intraoperative PTH dynamics, and surgical outcomes were evaluated. Of the 1,064 patients, 69 patients underwent 72 RPTXs with localizing studies and IPM. Sestamibi (n = 69) had a sensitivity of 74% and a PPV of 83%, whereas surgeon-performed ultrasound (n = 38) had a sensitivity of 55% and a PPV of 76%. IPM had a sensitivity of 100% and a PPV of 98%. An intraoperative PTH drop greater than or equal to 50% was predictive of operative success (P < .01). Overall, operative success and recurrence were 94% and 1.4%, with a mean patient follow-up of 59 ± 12.8 months. RPTX can be performed in a targeted approach using preoperative localization studies and IPM, leading to a low rate of complications and a high rate of long-term operative success. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

    2015-03-01

    China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

  5. Affective Load and Engagement in Second Life: Experiencing Urgent, Persistent, and Long-Term Information Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahl, Diane

    2010-01-01

    New users of virtual environments face a steep learning curve, requiring persistence and determination to overcome challenges experienced while acclimatizing to the demands of avatar-mediated behavior. Concurrent structured self-reports can be used to monitor the personal affective and cognitive struggles involved in virtual world adaptation to…

  6. Persistent psychotic symptoms after long-term heavy use of mephedrone: A two-case series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrio, Pablo; Gaskell, Matthew; Goti, Javier; Vilardell, Sergi; Fàbregas, Josep Maria

    2016-06-15

    Mephedrone (4-methylmethcathinone) is a synthetic stimulant drug of the cathinone class. Similar effects to those of cocaine and ecstasy are reported by users, with a high addictive potential. Given its increasing rate of consumption in Europe, it is getting more and more attention from the addiction field. In spite of that, little is known about the long-term consequences of prolonged heavy use. The two following cases might depict some of them. Case 1 was a middle-age man who reported three years of intravenous use of mephedrone. He used to binge for several days in a row. Psychotic symptoms appeared after a few months, especially paranoid delusions. Sent to aftercare in a therapeutic community, delusions kept reappearing after prolonged abstinence. A good response to risperidone was observed. Case 2 was a young man who used mephedrone heavily for two years, always snorted. Upon admission to the therapeutic community, the patient reported auditory hallucinations that partially remitted with olanzapine. Both cases showed a good insight and no personality deterioration. Given its similarities to other substances that are known to induce psychotic symptoms, and the increasing consumption of mephedrone around Europe, similar cases are expected in the near future. Conventional antipsychotic treatment seems a reasonable pharmacological approach.

  7. Persistence of Long-Term Memory in Vitrified and Revived Caenorhabditis elegans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vita-More, Natasha; Barranco, Daniel

    2015-10-01

    Can memory be retained after cryopreservation? Our research has attempted to answer this long-standing question by using the nematode worm Caenorhabditis elegans, a well-known model organism for biological research that has generated revolutionary findings but has not been tested for memory retention after cryopreservation. Our study's goal was to test C. elegans' memory recall after vitrification and reviving. Using a method of sensory imprinting in the young C. elegans, we establish that learning acquired through olfactory cues shapes the animal's behavior and the learning is retained at the adult stage after vitrification. Our research method included olfactory imprinting with the chemical benzaldehyde (C6H5CHO) for phase-sense olfactory imprinting at the L1 stage, the fast-cooling SafeSpeed method for vitrification at the L2 stage, reviving, and a chemotaxis assay for testing memory retention of learning at the adult stage. Our results in testing memory retention after cryopreservation show that the mechanisms that regulate the odorant imprinting (a form of long-term memory) in C. elegans have not been modified by the process of vitrification or by slow freezing.

  8. A prediction method for long-term behavior of prestressed concrete containment vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozaki, M.; Abe, T.; Watanabe, Y.; Kato, A.; Yamaguchi, T.; Yamamoto, M.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents results of studies on the long-term behavior of PCCVs at Taruga Unit No 2 and Ohi Unit No 3/4 power stations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the measured strain in the concrete and reduction force in the tendons, and to establish the prediction methods for long-term PCCVs behavior. Comparing the measured strains with those calculated due to creep and shrinkage of the concrete, those in contrast were investigated. Furthermore, the reduced tendon forces are calculated considering losses in elasticity, relaxation, creep and shrinkage. The measured reduction in the tendon forces is compared with the calculated. Considering changes in temperature and humidity, the measured strains and tendon forces were in good agreement with those calculated. From the above results, it was confirmed that the residual pre stresses in the PCCVs maintain the predicted values at the design stage, and that the prediction method of long-term behaviors has sufficient reliability. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

  9. Prediction of the Long Term Cooling Performance for the 3-Pin Fuel Test Loop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. K.; Chi, D. Y.; Sim, B. S.; Park, K. N.; Ahn, S. H.; Lee, J. M.; Lee, C. Y.; Kim, H. R

    2005-12-15

    In the long term cooling phase that the emergency cooling water injection ends, the performance of the residual heat removal for the 3-pin fuel test loop has been predicted by a simplified heat transfer model. In the long term cooling phase the residual heat is 1323W for PWR fuel test mode and 1449W for CANDU fuel test mode. The each residual heat is assumed as 2% of the fission power of the test fuel used in the anticipated operational occurrence and design basis accident analyses. The each fission power used for the analyses is 105% of the rated fission power in the normal operation. In the long term cooling phase the residual heat is removed to the HANARO pool through the double pressure vessels of the in-pile test section. Saturate pooling boiling is assumed on the test fuel and condensation heat transfer is expected on the inner wall of the fuel carrier and the flow divider. Natural convection heat transfer on a heated vertical wall is also assumed on the outer wall of the outer pressure vessel. The conduction heat transfer is only considered in the gap between the double pressure vessels charged with neon gas and in the downcomer filled with coolant. The heat transfer rate between the coolant temperature of 152 .deg. C in the in-pile test section and the water temperature of 45 .deg. C in the HANARO pool is predicted as about 1666W. The 152 .deg. C is the saturate temperature of the coolant pressure predicted from the MARS code. The cooling capacity of 1666W is greater than the residual heats of 1323W and 1449W. Consequently the long term cooling performance of the 3-pin fuel test loop is sufficient for the anticipated operational occurrences and design basis accidents.

  10. Childhood and persistent ADHD symptoms associated with educational failure and long-term occupational disability in adult ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredriksen, Mats; Dahl, Alv A; Martinsen, Egil W; Klungsoyr, Ole; Faraone, Stephen V; Peleikis, Dawn E

    2014-06-01

    Few studies have examined the impact of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms on adult ADHD functional outcomes. To address this issue dimensionally, ADHD symptoms in childhood and adulthood and their relation to educational deficits and work disability are studied in a clinical sample of adult patients with previously untreated ADHD. About 250 adults diagnosed systematically with ADHD according to DSM-IV were prospectively recruited. Primary outcomes were high school dropout and being out of the work last year. Childhood ADHD symptoms, sex differences, comorbidities of other mental disorders, and adult ADHD symptoms were examined by historical data, clinician interviews, and questionnaires. High levels of ADHD symptom severity in childhood were related to dropping out of high school [odds ratio (OR) = 3.0], as were higher numbers of hyperactive-impulsive symptoms in childhood. Significantly, more women than men were long-term work disabled (OR = 2.0). After adjusting for age and gender, persisting high levels of ADHD inattention symptoms in adulthood (OR = 2.5), number of comorbid disorders, and particularly anxiety disorders were significantly related to long-term work disability. Childhood hyperactive-impulsive symptoms and overall severity of childhood ADHD symptoms were associated with high school dropout rates; however, persisting ADHD inattention symptoms and comorbid mental disorders in adulthood were more correlated to occupational impairment. These findings underline proposals for studies on early recognition and interventions for ADHD and psychiatric comorbidity. They further suggest that inattentive symptoms be a focus of adult ADHD treatment and that workplace interventions be considered to prevent long-term work disability.

  11. Long-term persistence with injectable therapy in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: an 18-year observational cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Zhornitsky

    Full Text Available Disease modifying therapies (DMTs reduce the frequency of relapses and accumulation of disability in multiple sclerosis (MS. Long-term persistence with treatment is important to optimize treatment benefit. This long-term, cohort study was conducted at the Calgary MS Clinic. All consenting adults with relapsing-remitting MS who started either glatiramer acetate (GA or interferon-β 1a/1b (IFN-β between January 1st, 1996 and July 1st, 2011 were included. Follow-up continued to February 1st, 2014. Time-to-discontinuation of the initial and subsequently-prescribed DMTs (switches was analysed using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. Group differences were compared using log-rank tests and multivariable Cox regression models. Analysis included 1471 participants; 906 were initially prescribed GA and 565 were initially prescribed IFN-β. Follow-up information was available for 87%; 29 (2% were lost to follow-up and 160 (11% moved from Southern Alberta while still using DMT. Median time-to-discontinuation of all injectable DMTs was 11.1 years. Participants with greater disability at treatment initiation, those who started treatment before age 30, and those who started between 2006 and 2011 were more likely to discontinue use of all injectable DMTs. Median time-to-discontinuation of the initial DMT was 8.6 years. Those initially prescribed GA remained on treatment longer. Of 610 participants who discontinued injectable DMT, 331 (54% started an oral DMT, or a second-line DMT, or resumed injectable DMT after 90 days. Persistence with injectable DMTs was high in this long-term population-based study. Most participants who discontinued injectable DMT did not remain untreated. Further research is required to understand treatment outcomes and outcomes after stopping DMT.

  12. Resting regulatory CD4 T cells: a site of HIV persistence in patients on long-term effective antiretroviral therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tu-Anh Tran

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In HIV-infected patients on long-term HAART, virus persistence in resting long-lived CD4 T cells is a major barrier to curing the infection. Cell quiescence, by favouring HIV latency, reduces the risk of recognition and cell destruction by cytotoxic lymphocytes. Several cell-activation-based approaches have been proposed to disrupt cell quiescence and then virus latency, but these approaches have not eradicated the virus. CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells (Tregs are a CD4+ T-cell subset with particular activation properties. We investigated the role of these cells in virus persistence in patients on long-term HAART. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found evidence of infection of resting Tregs (HLADR(-CD69(-CD25(hiFoxP3+CD4+ T cells purified from patients on prolonged HAART. HIV DNA harbouring cells appear more abundant in the Treg subset than in non-Tregs. The half-life of the Treg reservoir was estimated at 20 months. Since Tregs from patients on prolonged HAART showed hyporesponsiveness to cell activation and inhibition of HIV-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte-related functions upon activation, therapeutics targeting cell quiescence to induce virus expression may not be appropriate for purging the Treg reservoir. CONCLUSIONS: Our results identify Tregs as a particular compartment within the latent reservoir that may require a specific approach for its purging.

  13. Persistent long-term facilitation at an identified synapse becomes labile with activation of short-term heterosynaptic plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jiang-Yuan; Schacher, Samuel

    2014-04-02

    Short-term and long-term synaptic plasticity are cellular correlates of learning and memory of different durations. Little is known, however, how these two forms of plasticity interact at the same synaptic connection. We examined the reciprocal impact of short-term heterosynaptic or homosynaptic plasticity at sensorimotor synapses of Aplysia in cell culture when expressing persistent long-term facilitation (P-LTF) evoked by serotonin [5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)]. Short-term heterosynaptic plasticity induced by 5-HT (facilitation) or the neuropeptide FMRFa (depression) and short-term homosynaptic plasticity induced by tetanus [post-tetanic potentiation (PTP)] or low-frequency stimulation [homosynaptic depression (HSD)] of the sensory neuron were expressed in both control synapses and synapses expressing P-LTF in the absence or presence of protein synthesis inhibitors. All forms of short-term plasticity failed to significantly affect ongoing P-LTF in the absence of protein synthesis inhibitors. However, P-LTF reversed to control levels when either 5-HT or FMRFa was applied in the presence of rapamycin. In contrast, P-LTF was unaffected when either PTP or HSD was evoked in the presence of either rapamycin or anisomycin. These results indicate that synapses expressing persistent plasticity acquire a "new" baseline and functionally express short-term changes as naive synapses, but the new baseline becomes labile following selective activations-heterosynaptic stimuli that evoke opposite forms of plasticity-such that when presented in the presence of protein synthesis inhibitors produce a rapid reversal of the persistent plasticity. Activity-selective induction of a labile state at synapses expressing persistent plasticity may facilitate the development of therapies for reversing inappropriate memories.

  14. Long-term exposure to political violence: The particular injury of persistent humiliation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Brian K; McNeely, Clea; Olsen, Joseph A; Belli, Robert F; Doty, Samuel Benjamin

    2016-05-01

    This study assessed the association between exposure to political violence over a 25-year period and adult functioning among a population that has experienced protracted and severe political conflict. Instead of aggregating exposure to political violence across time and type of exposure, as is commonly done, the event history calendar pioneered in this study assessed exposure to five forms of political violence annually from 1987 to 2011 in a representative sample of 1788 adults, aged 37 on average, in the occupied Palestinian territories (West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip). This method allowed for the identification of trajectories of exposure to political violence from childhood to adulthood using latent profile analysis. We then correlated the trajectories of exposure to measures of economic, political, community, family, psychological, and health functioning. As expected, being shot at, having one's home raided, being hit or kicked, being verbally abused, and witnessing someone close being humiliated were all elevated during periods of heightened political conflict (the first intifada (1987-1993) and, less so, the second intifada (2000-2005)). In addition, 12% of women and men reported high and persistent levels of exposure to humiliation (being verbally abused and/or witnessing someone close being humiliated) across the entire 25-year period. These individuals lived predominantly in neighborhoods with a high Israeli military presence. Compared to those who experienced periodic exposure to political violence, persistently humiliated men and women reported significantly lower health, economic, political, and psychological functioning, as well as higher social cohesion and political expression. Relevant literatures are reviewed when concluding that persistent humiliation is a neglected form of political violence that is best represented as a direct (versus structural), acute (versus chronic), macro (versus micro), and high-grade (versus low

  15. Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

    2017-04-01

    Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

  16. A computational environment for long-term multi-feature and multi-algorithm seizure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, C A; Direito, B; Costa, R P; Valderrama, M; Feldwisch-Drentrup, H; Nikolopoulos, S; Le Van Quyen, M; Schelter, B; Dourado, A

    2010-01-01

    The daily life of epilepsy patients is constrained by the possibility of occurrence of seizures. Until now, seizures cannot be predicted with sufficient sensitivity and specificity. Most of the seizure prediction studies have been focused on a small number of patients, and frequently assuming unrealistic hypothesis. This paper adopts the view that for an appropriate development of reliable predictors one should consider long-term recordings and several features and algorithms integrated in one software tool. A computational environment, based on Matlab (®), is presented, aiming to be an innovative tool for seizure prediction. It results from the need of a powerful and flexible tool for long-term EEG/ECG analysis by multiple features and algorithms. After being extracted, features can be subjected to several reduction and selection methods, and then used for prediction. The predictions can be conducted based on optimized thresholds or by applying computational intelligence methods. One important aspect is the integrated evaluation of the seizure prediction characteristic of the developed predictors.

  17. Scientific basis for long-term prediction of waste-form performance under repository conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendel, J.E.

    1982-10-01

    This paper presents an overview of the fundamental principles involved in predicting long-term performance of waste forms by the as-low-as-reasonably-achievable approach. Repository conditions which make up the waste-form environment, the aging of the waste form, the important radionuclides in the waste form, the chemistry of repository fluids, and multicomponent interactions testing were considered in order to describe these principles. The need for confidence limits on the prediction of waste-form performance and ways of achieving a definition of the confidence limits are discussed

  18. Prediction of long-term crustal movement for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Tabei, Kazuto; Koide, Hitoshi; Tashiro, Toshiharu

    2000-01-01

    Long-term stability of the geological environment is essential for the safe geological disposal of radioactive waste, for which it is necessary to predict the crustal movement during an assessment period. As a case study, a numerical analysis method for the prediction of crustal movement in Japan is proposed. A three-dimensional elastic analysis by FEM for the geological block structure of the Kinki region and the Awaji-Rokko area is presented. Stability analysis for a disposal cavern is also investigated. (author)

  19. [Long term persistence of yellow fever neutralising antibodies in elderly persons].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulange Bodilis, H; Benabdelmoumen, G; Gergely, A; Goujon, C; Pelicot, M; Poujol, P; Consigny, P H

    2011-10-01

    The activity of the yellow fever virus is reemerging in areas without recent transmission history, such as northern Argentina and Paraguay, and persists in an epidemic mode in other countries in Africa and Latin America. Thus more and more travelers are at risk of being exposed to this disease. The population is becoming older, sometimes suffering from multiple pathologies. Moreover, the risk of serious adverse events associated with live-attenuated YF17D vaccine, such as multiple organ failure (YEL-AVD), reaches 1/50,000 vaccines in people over 65 versus 1/200,000 in the general population. We analyzed, in a retrospective study, the results of neutralizing antibody titers against yellow fever in people aged 60 and older, who had been previously vaccinated against yellow fever and had visited the International Vaccination Centre of the Institut Pasteur between January 2005 and February 2009. In this population of 84 persons (median age 69 years), the date of the last vaccination was always more than 10 years: it was precisely known in 68 subjects and alleged in 16 subjects. The median time since the previous vaccination was 14 years, with a maximum of 60 years. The indications of serology were: immunosuppressive therapy (19% of cases), cancer (32%), hemopathy (10.7%), HIV infection (3.6%), chronic hepatitis/chronic renal failure/dialysis (2.4%), autoimmune diseases (2.4%), and in 29.8% of cases, age alone was the indication of serology. The antibody titer was at a protective level in 95.2% of cases. The four individuals with negative serology had no formal documented proof of a previous vaccination against yellow fever. This serological study was able to show a persistent protective antibody titer, after a previous vaccination, even going back 60 years, allowing patients to travel in a yellow-fever endemic area despite a contraindication, and without requiring any vaccine booster.

  20. A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

  1. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

  2. Long-term outcome following splenectomy for chronic and persistent immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in adults and children : Splenectomy in ITP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Rayaz; Devasia, Anup J; Viswabandya, Auro; Lakshmi, Kavitha M; Abraham, Aby; Karl, Sampath; Mathai, John; Jacob, Paul M; Abraham, Deepak; Srivastava, Alok; Mathews, Vikram; George, Biju

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this research is to study the outcomes of splenectomy for chronic and persistent immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). This study is a retrospective analysis of 254 patients with chronic or persistent ITP who underwent splenectomy at CMC, Vellore, India between 1995 and 2009. Responses were assessed based on standard criteria. One hundred and sixty seven adults and 87 children with a median age of 29 years (range 2-64) with persistent (n = 103) or chronic ITP (n = 151) was studied. Response was seen in 229 (90.2 %) including CR in 74.4 % at a median time of 1 day (range 1-54). Infections following splenectomy were reported in 16 %. Deaths related to post splenectomy sepsis occurred in 1.57 % and major bleeding in 0.78 %. At median follow-up of 54.3 months (range 1-290), 178 (70.1 %) remain in remission. The 5-year and 10-year overall survival (OS) is 97.4 ± 1.2 % and 94.9 ± 2.1 %, respectively, while the 5-year and 10-year event-free survival (EFS) is 76.5 + 2.9 % and 71.0 + 3.9 %, respectively. Splenectomy is associated with long-term remission rates of >70 % in chronic or persistent ITP.

  3. Uncovering Camouflage: Amygdala Activation Predicts Long-Term Memory of Induced Perceptual Insight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludmer, Rachel; Dudai, Yadin; Rubin, Nava

    2012-01-01

    What brain mechanisms underlie learning of new knowledge from single events? We studied encoding in long-term memory of a unique type of one-shot experience, induced perceptual insight. While undergoing an fMRI brain scan, participants viewed degraded images of real-world pictures where the underlying objects were hard to recognize (‘camouflage’), followed by brief exposures to the original images (‘solution’), which led to induced insight (“Aha!”). A week later, participants’ memory was tested; a solution image was classified as ‘remembered’ if detailed perceptual knowledge was elicited from the camouflage image alone. During encoding, subsequently remembered images enjoyed higher activity in mid-level visual cortex and medial frontal cortex, but most pronouncedly in the amygdala, whose activity could be used to predict which solutions will remain in long-term memory. Our findings extend the known roles of amygdala in memory to include promoting of long-term memory of the sudden reorganization of internal representations. PMID:21382558

  4. Predicting long-term moisture contents of earthen covers at uranium mill tailings sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gee, G.W.; Nielson, K.K.; Rogers, V.C.

    1984-09-01

    The three methods for long-term moisture prediction covered in this report are: estimates from water retention (permanent wilting point) data, correlation with climate and soil type, and detailed model simulation. The test results have shown: soils vary greatly in residual moisture. Expected long-term moisture saturation ratios (based on generalized soil characteristics) range from 0.2 to 0.8 for soils ranging in texture from sand to clay, respectively. These values hold for noncompacted field soils. Measured radon diffusion coefficients for soils at 15-bar water contents ranged from 5.0E-2 cm 2 /s to 5.0E-3 cm 2 /s for sands and clays, respectively, at typical field densities. In contrast, fine-textured pit-run earthen materials, subjected to optimum compaction (>85% Proctor density) and dried to the 15-bar water content, ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 moisture saturation. Compacted pit-run soils at these moisture contents exhibited radon diffusion coefficients as low as 3.0E-4 cm 2 /s. The residual moisture saturation for cover soils is not known since no engineered barrier has been in place for more than a few years. A comparison of methods for predicting moisture saturation indicates that model simulations are useful for predicting effects of climatic changes on residual soil moisture, but that long-term moisture also can be predicted with some degree of confidence using generalized soil properties or empirical correlations based both on soils and climatic information. The optimal soil cover design will likely include more than one layer of soil. A two-layer system using a thick (1-m minimum) plant root zone of uncompacted soil placed over a moistened, tightly compacted fine-textured soil is recommended. This design concept has been tested successfully at the Grand Junction, Colorado, tailings piles

  5. Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

    Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

  6. Persistent genital arousal disorder (PGAD): case report of long-term symptomatic management with electroconvulsive therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korda, Joanna B; Pfaus, James G; Kellner, Charles H; Goldstein, Irwin

    2009-10-01

    This is the second case report of a woman with bipolar disorder type I who noted the onset of persistent genital arousal disorder (PGAD) symptoms after abrupt cessation of paroxetine. With the worsening of PGAD symptoms, she developed severe depression and suicidal thoughts, resulting in her undergoing electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) as management. To describe a case of PGAD and develop hypotheses to explain the beneficial actions of ECT on PGAD based on 4 years of ECT administration. Patient self-report after obtaining consent, as well as literature review. After the fourth ECT, the patient's PGAD symptoms abated serendipitously. She was placed on ECT on demand for the treatment of her PGAD. With each ECT treatment, PGAD symptoms immediately disappeared, relapsing slowly over time until the next ECT was administered. The patient has, thus far, received a total of 30 treatments of ECT. Side effects continue to be minimal and include brief short-term memory loss, headache, and muscle aches. ECT is known to induce cerebral excitatory and inhibitory neurotransmitter changes after acute and chronic administration. Sexual arousal is stimulated by the action of hypothalamic and limbic dopamine, noradrenaline, melanocortin, and oxytocin, and inhibited by serotonin, cerebral opioids, and endocannabinoids. Based on the patient's bipolar disorder, the mechanism of action of ECT and the observation of ECT effectiveness on her PGAD, we hypothesize the following: (i) bipolar disorder led to central hyperactive dopamine release, an important component in the pathophysiology of her PGAD; (ii) central serotonin deficiency after selective serotonin-reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) withdrawal resulted in a lack of inhibition of sexual excitement; (iii) ECT resulted in lowering of the hyperstimulated central dopamine release; and (iv) ECT led to an increase in sexual inhibition by stimulating serotonin activity. Further research in the central control of sexual arousal is needed.

  7. Long term persistence of clonal malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum lineages in the Colombian Pacific region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echeverry, Diego F; Nair, Shalini; Osorio, Lyda; Menon, Sanjay; Murillo, Claribel; Anderson, Tim J C

    2013-01-07

    Resistance to chloroquine and antifolate drugs has evolved independently in South America, suggesting that genotype - phenotype studies aimed at understanding the genetic basis of resistance to these and other drugs should be conducted in this continent. This research was conducted to better understand the population structure of Colombian Plasmodium falciparum in preparation for such studies. A set of 384 SNPs were genotyped in blood spot DNA samples from 447 P. falciparum infected subjects collected over a ten year period from four provinces of the Colombian Pacific coast to evaluate clonality, population structure and linkage disequilibrium (LD). Most infections (81%) contained a single predominant clone. These clustered into 136 multilocus genotypes (MLGs), with 32% of MLGs recovered from multiple (2 - 28) independent subjects. We observed extremely low genotypic richness (R = 0.42) and long persistence of MLGs through time (median = 537 days, range = 1 - 2,997 days). There was a high probability (>5%) of sampling parasites from the same MLG in different subjects within 28 days, suggesting caution is needed when using genotyping methods to assess treatment success in clinical drug trials. Panmixia was rejected as four well differentiated subpopulations (FST = 0.084 - 0.279) were identified. These occurred sympatrically but varied in frequency within the four provinces. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) decayed more rapidly (r2 = 0.17 for markers Colombian populations have several advantages for association studies, because multiple clone infections are uncommon and LD decays over the scale of one or a few genes. However, the extensive population structure and low genotype richness will need to be accounted for when designing and analyzing association studies.

  8. Long term persistence of clonal malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum lineages in the Colombian Pacific region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Echeverry Diego F

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Resistance to chloroquine and antifolate drugs has evolved independently in South America, suggesting that genotype - phenotype studies aimed at understanding the genetic basis of resistance to these and other drugs should be conducted in this continent. This research was conducted to better understand the population structure of Colombian Plasmodium falciparum in preparation for such studies. Results A set of 384 SNPs were genotyped in blood spot DNA samples from 447 P. falciparum infected subjects collected over a ten year period from four provinces of the Colombian Pacific coast to evaluate clonality, population structure and linkage disequilibrium (LD. Most infections (81% contained a single predominant clone. These clustered into 136 multilocus genotypes (MLGs, with 32% of MLGs recovered from multiple (2 – 28 independent subjects. We observed extremely low genotypic richness (R = 0.42 and long persistence of MLGs through time (median = 537 days, range = 1 – 2,997 days. There was a high probability (>5% of sampling parasites from the same MLG in different subjects within 28 days, suggesting caution is needed when using genotyping methods to assess treatment success in clinical drug trials. Panmixia was rejected as four well differentiated subpopulations (FST = 0.084 - 0.279 were identified. These occurred sympatrically but varied in frequency within the four provinces. Linkage disequilibrium (LD decayed more rapidly (r2 = 0.17 for markers Conclusions We conclude that Colombian populations have several advantages for association studies, because multiple clone infections are uncommon and LD decays over the scale of one or a few genes. However, the extensive population structure and low genotype richness will need to be accounted for when designing and analyzing association studies.

  9. Food restriction increases long-term memory persistence in adult or aged mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talhati, F; Patti, C L; Zanin, K A; Lopes-Silva, L B; Ceccon, L M B; Hollais, A W; Bizerra, C S; Santos, R; Tufik, S; Frussa-Filho, R

    2014-04-03

    Food restriction (FR) seems to be the unique experimental manipulation that leads to a remarkable increase in lifespan in rodents. Evidences have suggested that FR can enhance memory in distinct animal models mainly during aging. However, only few studies systemically evaluated the effects FR on memory formation in both adult (3-month-old) and aged (18-24-month-old) mice. Thus, the aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of acute (12h) or repeated (12h/day for 2days) FR protocols on learning and memory of adult and aged mice evaluated in the plus-maze discriminative avoidance task (PM-DAT), an animal model that concurrently (but independently) evaluates learning and memory, anxiety and locomotion. We also investigated the possible role of FR-induced stress by the corticosterone concentration in adult mice. Male mice were kept at home cage with food ad libitum (CTRL-control condition) or subjected to FR during the dark phase of the cycle for 12h/day or 12h/2days. The FR protocols were applied before training, immediately after it or before testing. Our results demonstrated that only FR for 2days enhanced memory persistence when applied before training in adults and before testing in aged mice. Conversely, FR for 2days impaired consolidation and exerted no effects on retrieval irrespective of age. These effects do not seem to be related to corticosterone concentration. Collectively, these results indicate that FR for 2days can promote promnestic effects not only in aged mice but also in adults. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  11. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  12. The role of nuclear techniques in the long-term prediction of radionuclide transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Airey, P.L.; Duerden, P.

    1985-01-01

    Problems associated with the long-term prediction of the migration of radionuclides, and the role of natural analogues in reducing the inherent uncertainties are discussed. Particular reference is made to the evaluation of uranium ore bodies in the Alligator Rivers region, Northern Territory, as analogues of high-level radioactive waste repositories. A range of nuclear techniques has been used to identify the role of colloids, of alpha recoil and of mineralogy in transport. Specific mention is made of a method being developed which enables models of the migration of solute through fractured rock to be assessed via a combination of alpha track, fission track and PIXE/PIGME techniques

  13. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Mei [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Singh, Vijay P. [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

    2016-07-15

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  14. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Prediction of long-term precipitate evolution in austenitic heat-resistant steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shim, Jae-Hyeok; Jung, Woo-Sang; Cho, Young Whan [Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Materials/Devices Div.; Kozeschnik, Ernst [Vienna Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. of Materials Science and Technology

    2010-07-01

    Numerical prediction of the long-term precipitate evolution in five different austenitic heat-resistant stainless steels, NF709, Super304H, Sanicro25, CF8C-PLUS and HTUPS has been carried out. MX and M{sub 23}C{sub 6} are predicted to remain as major precipitates during long-term aging in these steels. The addition of 3 wt% Cu produces very fine Cu-rich precipitates during aging in Super304H and Sanicro25. It is found that the amount of Z phase start to increase remarkably between 1,000 and 10,000 hours of aging at the expense of MX precipitates in the steels containing a high nitrogen content. However, the growth rate of Z phase is relatively slow and its average size reaches at most a few tens of nanometers after 100,000 hours of aging at 700 C, compared with 9-12% Cr ferritic/martensitic heat-resistant steels. The predicted precipitation sequence and precipitate size during aging are in general agreement with experimental observations. (orig.)

  16. c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

    2016-10-15

    The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Long-term persistence of functional thymic epithelial progenitor cells in vivo under conditions of low FOXN1 expression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jin, Xin; Nowell, Craig S; Ulyanchenko, Svetlana

    2014-01-01

    does not require FOXN1. Here, we have used a revertible severely hypomorphic allele of Foxn1, Foxn1R, to test the stability of the common TEPC in vivo. By reactivating Foxn1 expression postnatally in Foxn1R/- mice we demonstrate that functional TEPCs can persist in the thymic rudiment until at least 6...... months of age, and retain the potential to give rise to both cortical and medullary thymic epithelial cells (cTECs and mTECs). These data demonstrate that the TEPC-state is remarkably stable in vivo under conditions of low Foxn1 expression, suggesting that manipulation of FOXN1 activity may prove...... a valuable method for long term maintenance of TEPC in vitro....

  18. Long-Term Persistence of Pesticides and TPs in Archived Agricultural Soil Samples and Comparison with Pesticide Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiaia-Hernandez, Aurea C; Keller, Armin; Wächter, Daniel; Steinlin, Christine; Camenzuli, Louise; Hollender, Juliane; Krauss, Martin

    2017-09-19

    For polar and more degradable pesticides, not many data on long-term persistence in soil under field conditions and real application practices exist. To assess the persistence of pesticides in soil, a multiple-compound screening method (log K ow 1.7-5.5) was developed based on pressurized liquid extraction, QuEChERS and LC-HRMS. The method was applied to study 80 polar pesticides and >90 transformation products (TPs) in archived topsoil samples from the Swiss Soil Monitoring Network (NABO) from 1995 to 2008 with known pesticide application patterns. The results reveal large variations between crop type and field sites. For the majority of the sites 10-15 pesticides were identified with a detection rate of 45% at concentrations between 1 and 330 μg/kg dw in soil. Furthermore, TPs were detected in 47% of the cases where the "parent-compound" was applied. Overall, residues of about 80% of all applied pesticides could be detected with half of these found as TPs with a persistence of more than a decade.

  19. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cho

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The APEC Climate Center (APCC produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1 the Simple Bias Correction (SBC method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2 the Moving Window Regression (MWR method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3 the Climate Index Regression (CIR method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4 the Integrated Time Regression (ITR method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  20. MAGIC biomarkers predict long term outcomes for steroid-resistant acute GVHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major-Monfried, Hannah; Renteria, Anne S; Pawarode, Attaphol; Reddy, Pavan; Ayuk, Francis; Holler, Ernst; Efebera, Yvonne A; Hogan, William J; Wölfl, Matthias; Qayed, Muna; Hexner, Elizabeth O; Wudhikarn, Kitsada; Ordemann, Rainer; Young, Rachel; Shah, Jay; Hartwell, Matthew J; Chaudhry, Mohammed; Aziz, Mina; Etra, Aaron; Yanik, Gregory A; Kröger, Nicolaus; Weber, Daniela; Chen, Yi-Bin; Nakamura, Ryotaro; Rösler, Wolf; Kitko, Carrie L; Harris, Andrew C; Pulsipher, Michael; Reshef, Ran; Kowalyk, Steven; Morales, George; Torres, Ivan; Özbek, Umut; Ferrara, James L M; Levine, John E

    2018-03-15

    Acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) is treated with systemic corticosteroid immunosuppression. Clinical response after one week of therapy often guides further treatment decisions, but long term outcomes vary widely between centers and more accurate predictive tests are urgently needed. We analyzed clinical data and blood samples taken after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD from 507 patients from 17 centers of the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC), dividing them into test (n=236) and two validation cohorts separated in time (n = 142 and 129, respectively). Initial response to systemic steroids correlated with response at four weeks, one-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS). A previously validated algorithm of two MAGIC biomarkers (ST2 and REG3α) consistently separated steroid resistant patients into two groups with dramatically different NRM and OS (p<0.001 for all three cohorts). High biomarker probability, resistance to steroids and GVHD severity (Minnesota risk) were all significant predictors of NRM in multivariate analysis. A direct comparison of receiver operating curves showed the area under the curve for biomarker probability (0.82) was significantly greater than that for steroid response (0.68, p=0.004) and for Minnesota risk (0.72, p=0.005). In conclusion, MAGIC biomarker probabilities generated after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD predict long term outcomes in steroid resistant GVHD better than clinical criteria and should prove useful in developing better treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Hematology.

  1. Dosimetric Inhomogeneity Predicts for Long-Term Breast Pain After Breast-Conserving Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mak, Kimberley S. [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chen, Yu-Hui; Catalano, Paul J. [Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Punglia, Rinaa S.; Wong, Julia S.; Truong, Linh [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Bellon, Jennifer R., E-mail: jbellon@LROC.harvard.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Purpose: The objective of this cross-sectional study was to characterize long-term breast pain in patients undergoing breast-conserving surgery and radiation (BCT) and to identify predictors of this pain. Methods and Materials: We identified 355 eligible patients with Tis-T2N0M0 breast cancer who underwent BCT in 2007 to 2011, without recurrent disease. A questionnaire derived from the Late Effects Normal Tissue Task Force (LENT) Subjective, Objective, Management, Analytic (SOMA) scale was mailed with 7 items detailing the severity, frequency, duration, and impact of ipsilateral breast pain over the previous 2 weeks. A logistic regression model identified predictors of long-term breast pain based on questionnaire responses and patient, disease, and treatment characteristics. Results: The questionnaire response rate was 80% (n=285). One hundred thirty-five patients (47%) reported pain in the treated breast, with 19 (14%) having pain constantly or at least daily; 15 (11%) had intense pain. The pain interfered with daily activities in 11 patients (8%). Six patients (4%) took analgesics for breast pain. Fourteen (10%) thought that the pain affected their quality of life. On univariable analysis, volume of breast tissue treated to ≥105% of the prescribed dose (odds ratio [OR] 1.001 per cc, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.000-1.002; P=.045), volume treated to ≥110% (OR 1.009 per cc, 95% CI 1.002-1.016; P=.012), hormone therapy use (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.12-3.39; P=.02), and other sites of pain (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.05-3.07; P=.03) predicted for long-term breast pain. On multivariable analysis, volume ≥110% (OR 1.01 per cc, 95% CI 1.003-1.017; P=.007), shorter time since treatment (OR 0.98 per month, 95% CI 0.96-0.998; P=.03), and hormone therapy (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.05-3.25; P=.03) were independent predictors of pain. Conclusion: Long-term breast pain was common after BCT. Although nearly half of patients had pain, most considered it tolerable. Dosimetric inhomogeneity

  2. Modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallis, I.G.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this working paper is to describe modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations. Ideally, it would be possible to use aquatic population models: (1) to predict changes in the health and well-being of all aquatic populations as a result of changing the composition, amount and location of radionuclide discharges; (2) to compare the effects of steady, fluctuating and accidental releases of radionuclides; and (3) to evaluate the combined impact of the discharge of radionuclides and other wastes, and natural environmental stresses on aquatic populations. At the onset it should be stated that there is no existing model which can achieve this ideal performance. However, modelling skills and techniques are available to develop useful aquatic population models. This paper discusses the considerations involved in developing these models and briefly describes the various types of population models which have been developed to date

  3. General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

    2016-01-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

  4. Long-term follow-up of patients treated for psychotic symptoms that persist after stopping illicit drug use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xianhua; Huang, Zhibiao; Li, Xuewu; Li, Yi; Wang, Yi; Wu, Dongling; Gao, Beiling; Yang, Xi

    2012-10-01

    The long-term outcome of patients diagnosed with drug-induced psychotic disorders in China is unknown. Assess the course of illness and severity of psychiatric symptoms in patients previously admitted to a psychiatric hospital for treatment of psychotic symptoms that were induced by the use of illicit drugs. Patients with psychotic symptoms at the time of their first psychiatric admission who had used illicit drugs in the month prior to admission were followed up 13 to 108 months after admission. Patients and coresident family members were interviewed about post-discharge drug use and psychotic symptoms. The 258 identified patients were primarily young, unemployed males whose most common drug of abuse was methamphetamines and who had been abusing drugs for an average of 7 years at the time of admission. Among these patients 189 (73%) were located and reinterviewed; 168 (89%) had restarted illicit drug use and 25 (13%) had required rehospitalization over the follow-up period. In 114 patients (60%) the psychotic symptoms resolved in less than 1 month after stopping the drugs, in 56 (30%) the symptoms persisted for 1 to 6 months, and in 19 (10%) the symptoms persisted for longer than 6 months (in 8 of these the diagnosis had changed to schizophrenia). Compared to the other two groups, patients whose symptoms persisted more than 6 months were more likely to have a family history of mental illness, an earlier age of onset and a longer duration of drug abuse prior to the index admission; they were also more likely to have been re-hospitalized during the follow-up period and to have psychotic symptoms at the time of follow-up. Most patients with substance-induced psychotic disorders in our sample had a good long-term prognosis but those who started illegal drug use early, used drugs for prolonged periods, or had a family history of psychiatric illnesses were more likely to develop a chronic psychosis. Further prospective studies are needed to determine the relationship of

  5. Long-term persistence of quality improvements for an intensive care unit communication initiative using the VALUE strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wysham, Nicholas G; Mularski, Richard A; Schmidt, David M; Nord, Shirley C; Louis, Deborah L; Shuster, Elizabeth; Curtis, J Randall; Mosen, David M

    2014-06-01

    Communication in the intensive care unit (ICU) is an important component of quality ICU care. In this report, we evaluate the long-term effects of a quality improvement (QI) initiative, based on the VALUE communication strategy, designed to improve communication with family members of critically ill patients. We implemented a multifaceted intervention to improve communication in the ICU and measured processes of care. Quality improvement components included posted VALUE placards, templated progress note inclusive of communication documentation, and a daily rounding checklist prompt. We evaluated care for all patients cared for by the intensivists during three separate 3 week periods, pre, post, and 3 years following the initial intervention. Care delivery was assessed in 38 patients and their families in the pre-intervention sample, 27 in the post-intervention period, and 41 in follow-up. Process measures of communication showed improvement across the evaluation periods, for example, daily updates increased from pre 62% to post 76% to current 84% of opportunities. Our evaluation of this quality improvement project suggests persistence and continued improvements in the delivery of measured aspects of ICU family communication. Maintenance with point-of-care-tools may account for some of the persistence and continued improvements. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. After laparoscopic Heller myotomy, do emergency department visits or readmissions predict poor long-term outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Sharona; Villadolid, Desiree; Al-Saadi, Sam; Boyle, Robert; Cowgill, Sarah M; Rosemurgy, Alexander

    2008-12-01

    Laparoscopic Heller myotomy is a first-line treatment for achalasia. To improve outcomes after myotomy and to determine if poor early results predict later outcomes, emergency department (ED) visits and readmissions within 60 days following laparoscopic Heller myotomy were studied. Since 1992, 352 patients have undergone laparoscopic Heller myotomy and are followed through a prospectively maintained registry. Causes of ED visits and readmissions within 60 days after myotomy were determined. Patients scored their symptoms of achalasia before myotomy and at last follow-up; scores were compared to determine if the reasons leading to ED visits and/or readmissions impacted long-term outcome after myotomy. Fourteen (4%) patients had ED visits, and 18 (5%) patients had readmissions within 60 days following myotomy. Sixty-four percent of ED visits were for dysphagia/vomiting and 36% were for abdominal/chest pain, while 37% of readmissions were for dysphagia/vomiting. Pneumonia was complicated by empyema in four patients, all without leaks; two patients expired. Despite ED visits/readmissions, achalasia symptom (e.g., dysphagia, regurgitation, choking, heartburn, and chest pain) frequency and severity scores improved after myotomy (p Heller myotomy. ED visits were generally due to complaints related to achalasia or edema after myotomy, while readmissions were generally related to complications of operative intervention or chronic ill health. Despite ED visits or readmissions early after myotomy, symptoms of achalasia are well palliated by myotomy long-term.

  7. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amnon eYacoby

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK. We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or one day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information one day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories.

  8. Commissioning healthcare for people with long term conditions: the persistence of relational contracting in England's NHS quasi-market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Alison; Mays, Nicholas; Shaw, Sara E; Rosen, Rebecca; Smith, Judith

    2013-01-01

    challenge the notion of a strict separation of commissioners and providers, and instead demonstrate the adaptive persistence of relational commissioning based on continuity of provision, trust and interdependence between commissioners and providers, at least for services for people with long-term conditions.

  9. Antioxidant defenses predict long-term survival in a passerine bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Saino

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal and pathological processes entail the production of oxidative substances that can damage biological molecules and harm physiological functions. Organisms have evolved complex mechanisms of antioxidant defense, and any imbalance between oxidative challenge and antioxidant protection can depress fitness components and accelerate senescence. While the role of oxidative stress in pathogenesis and aging has been studied intensively in humans and model animal species under laboratory conditions, there is a dearth of knowledge on its role in shaping life-histories of animals under natural selection regimes. Yet, given the pervasive nature and likely fitness consequences of oxidative damage, it can be expected that the need to secure efficient antioxidant protection is powerful in molding the evolutionary ecology of animals. Here, we test whether overall antioxidant defense varies with age and predicts long-term survival, using a wild population of a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, as a model.Plasma antioxidant capacity (AOC of breeding individuals was measured using standard protocols and annual survival was monitored over five years (2006-2010 on a large sample of selection episodes. AOC did not covary with age in longitudinal analyses after discounting the effect of selection. AOC positively predicted annual survival independently of sex. Individuals were highly consistent in their relative levels of AOC, implying the existence of additive genetic variance and/or environmental (including early maternal components consistently acting through their lives.Using longitudinal data we showed that high levels of antioxidant protection positively predict long-term survival in a wild animal population. Present results are therefore novel in disclosing a role for antioxidant protection in determining survival under natural conditions, strongly demanding for more longitudinal eco-physiological studies of life-histories in

  10. Long-term efficacy and safety of omalizumab in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Lai, Tianwen; Wang, Shaobin; Xu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Chao; Zhao, Yun; Hu, Yue; Cao, Chao; Ying, Songmin; Chen, Zhihua; Li, Wen; Wu, Bin; Shen, Huahao

    2015-01-01

    Currently, limited information is available to clinicians regarding the long-term efficacy of omalizumab treatment for allergic asthma. In this report, we aimed to (i) systematically review the evidence regarding the long-term efficacy of omalizumab in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma, and to (ii) discuss the cost-effectiveness evidence published for omalizumab in this patient population. A comprehensive search for randomized controlled trials (RCTs; ?52 weeks) was perfor...

  11. Prostate-specific antigen and long-term prediction of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørsted, David Dynnes; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Jensen, Gorm B

    2012-01-01

    It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population.......It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population....

  12. A comparative study on prediction methods for China's medium- and long-term coal demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Bing-Bing; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Wang, Jin-Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Given the dominant position of coal in China's energy structure and in order to ensure a safe and stable energy supply, it is essential to perform a scientific and effective prediction of China's medium- and long-term coal demand. Based on the historical data of coal consumption and related factors such as GDP (Gross domestic product), coal price, industrial structure, total population, energy structure, energy efficiency, coal production and urbanization rate from 1987 to 2012, this study compared the prediction effects of five types of models. These models include the VAR (vector autoregressive model), RBF (radial basis function) neural network model, GA-DEM (genetic algorithm demand estimation model), PSO-DEM (particle swarm optimization demand estimation model) and IO (input–output model). By comparing the results of different models with the corresponding actual coal consumption, it is concluded that with a testing period from 2006 to 2012, the PSO-DEM model has a relatively optimal predicted effect on China's total coal demand, where the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) is close to or below 2%. - Highlights: • The prediction effects of five methods for China's coal demand were compared. • Each model has acceptable prediction results, with MAPE below 5%. • Particle swarm optimization demand estimation model has better forecast efficacy.

  13. Impact of microbial activity on the radioactive waste disposal: long term prediction of biocorrosion processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libert, Marie; Schütz, Marta Kerber; Esnault, Loïc; Féron, Damien; Bildstein, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    This study emphasizes different experimental approaches and provides perspectives to apprehend biocorrosion phenomena in the specific disposal environment by investigating microbial activity with regard to the modification of corrosion rate, which in turn can have an impact on the safety of radioactive waste geological disposal. It is found that iron-reducing bacteria are able to use corrosion products such as iron oxides and "dihydrogen" as new energy sources, especially in the disposal environment which contains low amounts of organic matter. Moreover, in the case of sulphate-reducing bacteria, the results show that mixed aerobic and anaerobic conditions are the most hazardous for stainless steel materials, a situation which is likely to occur in the early stage of a geological disposal. Finally, an integrated methodological approach is applied to validate the understanding of the complex processes and to design experiments aiming at the acquisition of kinetic data used in long term predictive modelling of biocorrosion processes. © 2013.

  14. Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine

    2009-01-01

    In a regulatory context, numerical models are increasingly employed to quantify leaching of pesticides and their metabolites. Although the ability of these models to accurately simulate leaching of pesticides has been evaluated, little is known about their ability to accurately simulate long...... alternative kinetics (a two-site approach), we captured the observed leaching scenario, thus underlining the necessity of accounting for the long-term sorption and dissipation characteristics when using models to predict the risk of groundwater contamination.......-term leaching of metabolites. A Danish study on the dissipation and sorption of metribuzin, involving both monitoring and batch experiments, concluded that desorption and degradation of metribuzin and leaching of its primary metabolite diketometribuzin continued for 5-6 years after application, posing a risk...

  15. Self-reported musculoskeletal pain predicts long-term increase in general health care use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael; Søgaard, Karen

    2014-01-01

    reported during the past two weeks from the Danish National Cohort Study were merged with data from the Danish National Health Insurance Registry and the National Patient Registry containing information on consultations in the Danish primary and secondary care sector. Absolute and relative rates for all......Aims: Musculoskeletal pain and disability is a modern epidemic and a major reason for seeking health care. The aim of this study is to determine absolute and relative rates of care seeking over 20 years for adults reporting musculoskeletal complaints. Methods: Interview data on musculoskeletal pain...... to any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS SELF-REPORT OF MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST TWO WEEKS PREDICTS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM INCREASE IN GENERAL USE OF HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN BOTH THE PRIMARY AND THE SECONDARY HEALTH CARE SECTOR:...

  16. The long-term nutritional status in stroke patients and its predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquereau, Julie; Allart, Etienne; Romon, Monique; Rousseaux, Marc

    2014-07-01

    Malnutrition is common in the first few months after stroke and contributes to a poor overall outcome. We analyzed long-term weight changes and their predictive factors. A total of 71 first-ever stroke patients were included in the study and examined (1) their weight on admission to the acute stroke unit (usual weight [UW]), on admission to the rehabilitation unit, on discharge from the rehabilitation unit, and then 1 year or more after the stroke (median time: 2.5 years), (2) the presence of malnutrition after stroke, and (3) possible predictive factors, namely, sociodemographic factors, clinical characteristics (concerning the stroke, the patient's current neurologic status and the presence of diabetes mellitus and depression), and the present nutritional state (including eating difficulties, anorexia, and changes in food intake and food preferences). Body weight fell (4.0 kg) during the patients' stay in the stroke unit, increased moderately in the rehabilitation unit (2.0 kg), and returned to the UW by the long-term measurement. However, at the last observation, 40.1% of the patients weighed markedly less than their UW, 38.0% weighed markedly more, and 21.1% were relatively stable. Predictors of weight change were a change in preferences for sweet food products and a change in food intake. Malnutrition was frequent (47.9%) and associated with reduced food intake, residence in an institution, and diabetes mellitus. Malnutrition was highly prevalent, with an important role of change in food intake and food preferences, which could result from brain lesions and specific regimens. Living in an institution needs consideration, as its negative effects can be prevented. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Lesion load may predict long-term cognitive dysfunction in multiple sclerosis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Patti

    Full Text Available Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm in Multiple Sclerosis (MS.To investigate the role of white matter (WM and gray matter (GM in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients.303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up. The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f, WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f, a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT, the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL, the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST, and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT. In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors.AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12-1.97 p = 0.006, PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14-1.80 p = 0.002, SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35-2.20 p<0.001, SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28-2.03 p<0.001, MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2-1.9 p<0.001, MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2-1.9 p = 0.001, MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02-1.55 p = 0.032.In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome.

  18. Environmental controls on spatial patterns in the long-term persistence of giant kelp in central California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Mary Alida; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Bell, Tom W.; Raimondi, Peter T.; Edwards, Christopher A.; Drake, Patrick T.; Erikson, Li H.; Storlazzi, Curt

    2016-01-01

    As marine management is moving towards the practice of protecting static areas, it is 44 important to make sure protected areas capture and protect persistent populations. Rocky reefs in 45 many temperate areas worldwide serve as habitat for canopy forming macroalgae and these 46 structure forming species of kelps (order Laminariales) often serve as important habitat for a great 47 diversity of species. Macrocystis pyrifera is the most common canopy forming kelp species found 48 along the coast of California but the distribution and abundance of M. pyrifera varies in space and 49 time. The purpose of this study is to determine what environmental parameters are correlated with 50 the spatial and temporal persistence of M. pyrifera along the central coast of California and how 51 well those environmental parameters can be used to predict areas where M. pyrifera is more likely 52 to persist. Nine environmental variables considered in this study included depth of the seafloor, 53 structure of the rocky reef, proportion of rocky reef, size of kelp patch, biomass of kelp within a 54 patch, distance from the edge of a kelp patch, sea surface temperature, wave orbital velocities, and 55 population connectivity of individual kelp patches. Using a generalized linear mixed effects model 56 (GLMM), the persistence of M. pyrifera was significantly associated with seven of the nine 57 variables considered: depth, complexity of the rocky reef, proportion of rock, patch biomass, 58 distance from the edge of a patch, population connectivity, and wave-orbital velocities. These 59 seven environmental variables were then used to predict the persistence of kelp across the central 60 coast and these predictions were compared to a reserved dataset of M. pyrifera persistence, which 61 was not used in the creation of the GLMM. The environmental variables were shown to accurately 62 predict the persistence of M. pyrifera within the central coast of California (r = 0.71, P<0.001). 63 Because

  19. Long-term monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) at the Norwegian Troll station in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallenborn, R.; Breivik, K.; Eckhardt, S.; Lunder, C. R.; Manø, S.; Schlabach, M.; Stohl, A.

    2013-07-01

    A first long-term monitoring of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Antarctic air has been conducted at the Norwegian research station Troll (Dronning Maud Land). As target contaminants 32 PCB congeners, α- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), trans- and cis-chlordane, trans- and cis-nonachlor, p,p'- and o,p-DDT, DDD, DDE as well as hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were selected. The monitoring program with weekly samples taken during the period 2007-2010 was coordinated with the parallel program at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring site (Zeppelin mountain, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard) in terms of priority compounds, sampling schedule as well as analytical methods. The POP concentration levels found in Antarctica were considerably lower than Arctic atmospheric background concentrations. Similar to observations for Arctic samples, HCB is the predominant POP compound, with levels of around 22 pg m-3 throughout the entire monitoring period. In general, the following concentration distribution was found for the Troll samples analyzed: HCB > Sum HCH > Sum PCB > Sum DDT > Sum chlordanes. Atmospheric long-range transport was identified as a major contamination source for POPs in Antarctic environments. Several long-range transport events with elevated levels of pesticides and/or compounds with industrial sources were identified based on retroplume calculations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART).

  20. Long-term monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs at the Norwegian Troll station in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kallenborn

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A first long-term monitoring of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs in Antarctic air has been conducted at the Norwegian research station Troll (Dronning Maud Land. As target contaminants 32 PCB congeners, α- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH, trans- and cis-chlordane, trans- and cis-nonachlor, p,p'- and o,p-DDT, DDD, DDE as well as hexachlorobenzene (HCB were selected. The monitoring program with weekly samples taken during the period 2007–2010 was coordinated with the parallel program at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring site (Zeppelin mountain, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard in terms of priority compounds, sampling schedule as well as analytical methods. The POP concentration levels found in Antarctica were considerably lower than Arctic atmospheric background concentrations. Similar to observations for Arctic samples, HCB is the predominant POP compound, with levels of around 22 pg m−3 throughout the entire monitoring period. In general, the following concentration distribution was found for the Troll samples analyzed: HCB > Sum HCH > Sum PCB > Sum DDT > Sum chlordanes. Atmospheric long-range transport was identified as a major contamination source for POPs in Antarctic environments. Several long-range transport events with elevated levels of pesticides and/or compounds with industrial sources were identified based on retroplume calculations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART.

  1. Quantitative analysis of the acute and long-term CD4(+) T-cell response to a persistent gammaherpesvirus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jan Pravsgaard; Doherty, P C

    1999-01-01

    The murine gammaherpesvirus 68 (MHV-68) replicates in respiratory epithelial cells, where it establishes a persistent, latent infection limited predominantly to B lymphocytes. The virus-specific CD4(+) T-cell response in C57BL/6 mice challenged intranasally with MHV-68 is detected first...... in the mediastinal lymph nodes and then in the cervical lymph nodes and the spleen. The numbers of MHV-68-specific CD4(+) T cells generated in congenic mice homozygous for disruption of the beta2-microglobulin gene tended to be higher, indicating that the absence of the CD8(+) set in this group resulted...... in a compensatory response. The peak frequency within the splenic CD4(+) T-cell population may reach 1:50 in the acute response; it then drops to 1:400 to 1:500 within 4 months and stays at that level in the very long term. Sorting for L-selectin (CD62L) expression established that all virus-specific CD4(+) T cells...

  2. PRIMARY RESULTS OF LONG-TERM DYNAMIC MONITORING OF CHILDREN WITH BRONCHIAL ASTHMA OF UNCONTROLLED SEVERE PERSISTENT COURSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Namazova-Baranova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Patients registers help obtain the latest information about the clinical course of a disease, safety and effectiveness of the medical technology. Objective: Our aim was to analyze the efficiency and safety of omalizumab with children suffering from uncontrolled severe persistent bronchial asthma (BA according to the data of the developed register. Methods.  A register of patients with severe asthma of uncontrolled course receiving omalizumab in addition to basic therapy has been developed. Results. Results of treatment of 101 children aged 6–17 have been analyzed. The duration of therapy with omalizumab lasted from 1 to 85 months, with a median of 16 (10; 44 months. The drug was used in doses of 75 to 600 mg, with a median of 300 (225; 375 mg. The therapy with omalizumab allowed achieving a better control of the disease (AST test prior to start of therapy — 14 (11; 17 points, in 1 year — 20 (13; 25; p < 0,001; reduction of the volume of daily base therapy (prior to start of therapy, average dose of inhaled corticosteroids in terms of fluticasone was 629 ± 304 mg (n = 15, in 4 years — 524 ± 342 mg; p = 0.065; reduction of the number of aggravations and the need to use short-effectiv   2-agonists.  No adverse systemic effects of the introduction of genetically engineered biological drugs have been found. Conclusion. Register of patients with severe persistent asthma can be used as a tool for long-term  monitoring and integrated assessment of the efficiency and safety of therapy.

  3. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Philip [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); McMaster University, Population Health Research Institute, Department of Medicine, and Department of Radiology, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); Mani, Venkatesh [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Kallend, David [The Medicines Company, Parsippany, NJ (United States); Rudd, James H.F. [University of Cambridge, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Fayad, Zahi A. [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Hess CSM Building Floor TMII, Rm S1-104, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States)

    2017-01-15

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  4. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joseph, Philip; Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed; Mani, Venkatesh; Kallend, David; Rudd, James H.F.; Fayad, Zahi A.

    2017-01-01

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  5. DOP prediction over Egypt from SP3 file for long-term

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aly M. El-naggar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available An important error source in satellite surveying deals with the geometry of the visible satellite constellation at the time of observation. This is similar to the situation in traditional surveys, where the geometry of the network of observed ground stations affects the accuracies of computed positions. Dilution of precision (DOP is an indicator of the quality of the geometry of the visible satellite constellation. The value of DOP is very important during observation sessions, because many projects have special requirements regarding the positioning accuracy. These special requirements will force the surveyor to hold the survey mission until the value of dilution of precision at the time of observation meets the project’s requirements. This means that the GPS mission planning is an essential task before any GPS survey. The task of this paper is related to The GPS mission planning which the values of dilution of precisions and number of visible satellites should be predicted for the observation points, this task should determine the best observation periods which meet the project requirements. This paper explore the process of DOP prediction for long term by using Standard Product 3 (SP3 file and attempt to mathematically or statistically bound the navigation error. In this paper the actual orbital period of GPS satellite was defined and the DOP contour map over Egypt was constructed. By using these contour maps one can predict the DOP by knowing the city name.

  6. Predicting long-term sickness absence and early retirement pension from self-reported work ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sell, Lea; Bültmann, Ute; Rugulies, Reiner Ernst

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market.......The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market....

  7. Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun-Young Kim

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in diameter (PM10 concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly PM10 data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM10 concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R2 statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average PM10 concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 μg/m3 (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 μg/m3, respectively. Cross-validated R2 values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had R2 values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R2 (0.36 than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM10 source characteristics.

  8. Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

    2012-05-22

    No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

  9. Taylor Series-Based Long-Term Creep-Life Prediction of Alloy 617

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Woo Gon; Kim, Yong Wan; Park, Jae Young; Kim, Soen Jin

    2010-01-01

    In this study, a Taylor series (T-S) model based on the Arrhenius, McVetty, and Monkman-Grant equations was developed using a mathematical analysis. In order to reduce fitting errors, the McVetty equation was transformed by considering the first three terms of the Taylor series equation. The model parameters were accurately determined by a statistical technique of maximum likelihood estimation, and this model was applied to the creep data of alloy 617. The T-S model results showed better agreement with the experimental data than other models such as the Eno, exponential, and L-M models. In particular, the T-S model was converted into an isothermal Taylor series (IT-S) model that can predict the creep strength at a given temperature. It was identified that the estimations obtained using the converted ITS model was better than that obtained using the T-S model for predicting the long-term creep life of alloy 617

  10. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

  11. Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

  12. Chest HRCT signs predict deaths in long-term follow-up among asbestos exposed workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehmas, Tapio, E-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Topeliuksenkatu 41 a A, FI-00250 Helsinki (Finland); Oksa, Panu, E-mail: panu.oksa@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Uimalankatu 1, FI-33101 Tampere (Finland)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Much lung and pleural pathology is found in chest CT studies. • HRCT signs were screened and subsequent mortality followed up. • Several signs were related to all-cause and disease specific deaths. • The HRCT classification system used was able to predict mortality. • Secondary preventive strategies should be developed for patients with such signs. - Abstract: Objectives: To study associations between chest HRCT signs and subsequent deaths in long-term follow-up. Methods: Lung and pleural signs of 633 asbestos exposed workers (age 45–86, mean 65) screened with HRCT were recorded by using the International Classification of Occupational and Environmental Respiratory Diseases (ICOERD) system, which contains detailed instructions for use and reference images. Subsequent mortality was checked from the national register. Cox regression adjusted for covariates (age, sex, BMI, asbestos exposure, pack-years) was used to explore the relations between HRCT signs and all-cause deaths, cardiovascular and benign respiratory deaths, and deaths from neoplasms – all according to the ICD-10 diagnostic system. Results: The follow-up totalled 5271.9 person-years (mean 8.3 y/person, range .04–10.3). 119 deaths were reported. Irregular/linear opacities, honeycombing, emphysema, large opacities, visceral pleural abnormalities and bronchial wall thickening were all significantly related to all-cause deaths. Most of these signs were associated also with deaths from neoplasms and benign respiratory disease. Deaths from cardiovascular disease were predicted by emphysema and visceral pleural abnormalities. Conclusions: Several HRCT signs predicted deaths. Careful attention should be paid on subjects with radiological signs predictive of deaths and new secondary preventive strategies developed. This calls for further focused studies among different populations.

  13. Predicting long-term organic carbon dynamics in organically amended soils using the CQESTR model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plaza, Cesar; Polo, Alfredo [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Ciencias Agrarias; Gollany, Hero T. [Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, OR (United States). USDA-ARS; Baldoni, Guido; Ciavatta, Claudio [Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dept. of Agroenvironmental Sciences and Technologies

    2012-04-15

    Purpose: The CQESTR model is a process-based C model recently developed to simulate soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics and uses readily available or easily measurable input parameters. The current version of CQESTR (v. 2.0) has been validated successfully with a number of datasets from agricultural sites in North America but still needs to be tested in other geographic areas and soil types under diverse organic management systems. Materials and methods: We evaluated the predictive performance of CQESTR to simulate long-term (34 years) soil organic C (SOC) changes in a SOM-depleted European soil either unamended or amended with solid manure, liquid manure, or crop residue. Results and discussion: Measured SOC levels declined over the study period in the unamended soil, remained constant in the soil amended with crop residues, and tended to increase in the soils amended with manure, especially with solid manure. Linear regression analysis of measured SOC contents and CQESTR predictions resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.626 (P < 0.001) and a slope and an intercept not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively (95% confidence level). The mean squared deviation and root mean square error were relatively small. Simulated values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the measured SOC, and predicted errors were mainly associated with data scattering. Conclusions: The CQESTR model was shown to predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the organic C dynamics in the soils examined. The CQESTR performance, however, could be improved by adding an additional parameter to differentiate between pre-decomposed organic amendments with varying degrees of stability. (orig.)

  14. Symptoms of delirium predict incident delirium in older long-term care residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Martin G; McCusker, Jane; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric

    2013-06-01

    Detection of long-term care (LTC) residents at risk of delirium may lead to prevention of this disorder. The primary objective of this study was to determine if the presence of one or more Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) core symptoms of delirium at baseline assessment predicts incident delirium. Secondary objectives were to determine if the number or the type of symptoms predict incident delirium. The study was a secondary analysis of data collected for a prospective study of delirium among older residents of seven LTC facilities in Montreal and Quebec City, Canada. The Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE), CAM, Delirium Index (DI), Hierarchic Dementia Scale, Barthel Index, and Cornell Scale for Depression were completed at baseline. The MMSE, CAM, and DI were repeated weekly for six months. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to determine if baseline symptoms predict incident delirium. Of 273 residents, 40 (14.7%) developed incident delirium. Mean (SD) time to onset of delirium was 10.8 (7.4) weeks. When one or more CAM core symptoms were present at baseline, the Hazard Ratio (HR) for incident delirium was 3.5 (95% CI = 1.4, 8.9). The HRs for number of symptoms present ranged from 2.9 (95% CI = 1.0, 8.3) for one symptom to 3.8 (95% CI = 1.3, 11.0) for three symptoms. The HR for one type of symptom, fluctuation, was 2.2 (95% CI = 1.2, 4.2). The presence of CAM core symptoms at baseline assessment predicts incident delirium in older LTC residents. These findings have potentially important implications for clinical practice and research in LTC settings.

  15. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness...... of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved...

  16. BRAF mutation is not predictive of long-term outcome in papillary thyroid carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henke, Lauren E; Pfeifer, John D; Ma, Changquing; Perkins, Stephanie M; DeWees, Todd; El-Mofty, Samir; Moley, Jeffrey F; Nussenbaum, Brian; Haughey, Bruce H; Baranski, Thomas J; Schwarz, Julie K; Grigsby, Perry W

    2015-01-01

    The BRAF mutation occurs commonly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Previous investigations of its utility to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) have reported conflicting results and its role remains unclear. The purpose of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence of the BRAF mutation and analyze its relationship to clinicopathologic risk factors and long-term outcomes in the largest, single-institution American cohort to date. BRAF mutational status was determined in 508 PTC patients using RFLP analysis. The relationships between BRAF mutation status, patient and tumor characteristics, RFS, and DSS were analyzed. The BRAF mutation was present in 67% of patients. On multivariate analysis, presence of the mutation predicted only for capsular invasion (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6), cervical lymph node involvement (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.7), and classic papillary histology (HR, 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–2.9). There was no significant relationship between the BRAF mutation and RFS or DSS, an observation that was consistent across univariate, multivariate, and Kaplan–Meier analyses. This is the most extensive study to date in the United States to demonstrate that BRAF mutation is of no predictive value for recurrence or survival in PTC. We found correlations of BRAF status and several clinicopathologic characteristics of high-risk disease, but limited evidence that the mutation correlates with more extensive or aggressive disease. This analysis suggests that BRAF is minimally prognostic in PTC. However, prevalence of the BRAF mutation is 70% in the general population, providing the opportunity for targeted therapy

  17. Long-term response to recombinant human growth hormone treatment: a new predictive mathematical method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migliaretti, G; Ditaranto, S; Guiot, C; Vannelli, S; Matarazzo, P; Cappello, N; Stura, I; Cavallo, F

    2018-07-01

    Recombinant GH has been offered to GH-deficient (GHD) subjects for more than 30 years, in order to improve height and growth velocity in children and to enhance metabolic effects in adults. The aim of our work is to describe the long-term effect of rhGH treatment in GHD pediatric patients, suggesting a growth prediction model. A homogeneous database is defined for diagnosis and treatment modalities, based on GHD patients afferent to Hospital Regina Margherita in Turin (Italy). In this study, 232 GHD patients are selected (204 idiopathic GHD and 28 organic GHD). Each measure is shown in terms of mean with relative standard deviations (SD) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). To estimate the final height of each patient on the basis of few measures, a mathematical growth prediction model [based on Gompertzian function and a mixed method based on the radial basis functions (RBFs) and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) models] was performed. The results seem to highlight the benefits of an early start of treatment, further confirming what is suggested by the literature. Generally, the RBF-PSO method shows a good reliability in the prediction of the final height. Indeed, RMSE is always lower than 4, i.e., in average the forecast will differ at most of 4 cm to the real value. In conclusion, the large and accurate database of Italian GHD patients allowed us to assess the rhGH treatment efficacy and compare the results with those obtained in other Countries. Moreover, we proposed and validated a new mathematical model forecasting the expected final height after therapy which was validated on our cohort.

  18. Thyroiditis de Quervain. Are there predictive factors for long-term hormone-replacement?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenke, S; Klett, R; Braun, S; Zimny, M

    2013-01-01

    Subacute thyroiditis is a usually self-limiting disease of the thyroid. However, approximately 0.5-15% of the patients require permanent thyroxine substitution. Aim was to determine predictive factors for the necessity of long-term hormone-replacement (LTH). We retrospectively reviewed the records of 72 patients with subacute thyroiditis. Morphological and serological parameters as well as type of therapy were tested as predictive factors of consecutive hypothyroidism. Mean age was 49 ± 11 years, f/m-ratio was 4.5 : 1. Thyroid pain and signs of hyperthyroidism were leading symptoms. Initial subclinical or overt hyperthyroidism was found in 20% and 37%, respectively. Within six months after onset 15% and 1.3% of the patients developed subclinical or overt hypothyroidism, respectively. At latest follow-up 26% were classified as liable to LTH. At onset the thyroid was enlarged in 64%, and at latest follow-up in 8.3%, with a significant reduction of the thyroid volume after three months. At the endpoint the thyroid volume was less in patients in the LTH group compared with the non-LTH group (41.7% vs. 57.2% of sex-adjusted upper norm, p = 0.041). Characteristic ultrasonographic features occurred in 74% of the patients in both lobes. Serological and morphological parameters as well as type of therapy were not related with the need of LTH. In this study the proportion of patients who received LTH was 26%. At the endpoint these patients had a lower thyroid volume compared with euthyroid patients. No predictive factors for LTH were found.

  19. Could infarct location predict the long-term functional outcome in childhood arterial ischemic stroke?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio López-Espejo

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To explore the influence of infarct location on long-term functional outcome following a first-ever arterial ischemic stroke (AIS in non-neonate children. Method: The MRIs of 39 children with AIS (median age 5.38 years; 36% girls; mean follow-up time 5.87 years were prospectively evaluated. Infarct location was classified as the absence or presence of subcortical involvement. Functional outcome was measured using the modified Rankin scale (mRS for children after the follow-up assessment. We utilized multivariate logistic regression models to estimate the odds ratios (ORs for the outcome while adjusting for age, sex, infarct size and middle cerebral artery territory involvement (significance < 0.05. Results: Both infarcts ≥ 4% of total brain volume (OR 9.92; CI 1.76 – 55.9; p 0.009 and the presence of subcortical involvement (OR 8.36; CI 1.76 – 53.6; p 0.025 independently increased the risk of marked functional impairment (mRS 3 to 5. Conclusion: Infarct extension and location can help predict the extent of disability after childhood AIS.

  20. Bone mineral density before and after OLT: long-term follow-up and predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guichelaar, Maureen M J; Kendall, Rebecca; Malinchoc, Michael; Hay, J Eileen

    2006-09-01

    Fracturing after liver transplantation (OLT) occurs due to the combination of preexisting low bone mineral density (BMD) and early posttransplant bone loss, the risk factors for which are poorly defined. The prevalence and predictive factors for hepatic osteopenia and osteoporosis, posttransplant bone loss, and subsequent bone gain were studied by the long-term posttransplant follow-up of 360 consecutive adult patients with end-stage primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Only 20% of patients with advanced PBC or PSC have normal bone mass. Risk factors for low spinal BMD are low body mass index, older age, postmenopausal status, muscle wasting, high alkaline phosphatase and low serum albumin. A high rate of spinal bone loss occurred in the first 4 posttransplant months (annual rate of 16%) especially in those with younger age, PSC, higher pretransplant bone density, no inflammatory bowel disease, shorter duration of liver disease, current smoking, and ongoing cholestasis at 4 months. Factors favoring spinal bone gain from 4 to 24 months after transplantation were lower baseline and/or 4-month bone density, premenopausal status, lower cumulative glucocorticoids, no ongoing cholestasis, and higher levels of vitamin D and parathyroid hormone. Bone mass therefore improves most in patients with lowest pretransplant BMD who undergo successful transplantation with normal hepatic function and improved gonadal and nutritional status. Patients transplanted most recently have improved bone mass before OLT, and although bone loss still occurs early after OLT, these patients also have a greater recovery in BMD over the years following OLT.

  1. Latent profiles of nonresidential father engagement six years after divorce predict long-term offspring outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa J; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2015-01-01

    This study examined profiles of nonresidential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) 6 to 8 years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, 9 years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of nonresidential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed 9 years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes 9 years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother's remarriage, mother's income, and gender, age, and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems 9 years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed.

  2. Deviations in energy sensing predict long-term weight change in overweight Native Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basolo, Alessio; Votruba, Susanne B; Heinitz, Sascha; Krakoff, Jonathan; Piaggi, Paolo

    2018-05-01

    Energy expenditure (EE), as reflective of body energy demand, has been proposed to be the key driver of food intake, possibly influencing weight change in humans. Variation in this energy-sensing link (overeating relative to weight-maintaining energy requirements) may lead to weight gain over time. Sixty-one overweight otherwise healthy Native Americans (age: 34.0 ± 7.9 years, body fat: 39.7 ± 9.5%, 36 males) were admitted to our clinical research unit for measurements of body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and 24-h EE and respiratory quotient (RQ) in a whole-room indirect calorimeter during energy balance and weight stability. Following this, ad libitum food intake was assessed for three days using computerized vending machines. Body weight change under unrestricted free-living conditions was assessed at an outpatient follow-up visit (median follow-up time = 1.7 years). Total ad libitum food intake (3-day average) was positively associated with 24-h EE (r = 0.44, p energy requirements can be assessed and predicts long-term weight gain, suggesting that variation in energy sensing may influence appetite by favoring overeating thus promoting obesity development. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion

  4. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term...

  5. Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, X.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tech-nique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with

  6. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  7. Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic Plain: Trend, prediction and potential source fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.

    2018-05-01

    Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from

  8. Long-term prediction of corrosion damage in nuclear waste systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hidekazu Asano; Feron, Damien; Gens, Robert; Padovani, Cristiano; Naoki Taniguchi

    2014-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows: The Fifth International Workshop on Long-Term Prediction of Corrosion Damage in Nuclear Waste Systems was held at the Taisetsu Crystal Hall in Asahikawa, Hokkaido, Japan from October 6 to 10, 2013, following the four previous successful workshops (Cadarache, France, 2001; Nice, France, 2004; Pennsylvania State University, USA, 2007 and Bruges, Belgium, 2010). It was organised by the Japan Society of Corrosion Engineering (JSCE) and supported by the European Federation of Corrosion (EFC): Nuclear Corrosion Working Party (WP4) as of EFC event No.360. Furthermore, it was supported by the Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Environment (NUCE) of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) and The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (JSME). Twenty nine (29) oral presentations were distributed among eleven (11) sessions covering a broad range of subjects. Another twenty eight (28) studies were presented at a poster session. A total of sixty seven (67) participants from twelve (12) countries attended the event. The presentations and the following discussion provided contextual information about the state of some national programmes and covered in detail a range of experimental and modelling studies aimed at evaluating the corrosion behaviour of a range of candidate materials and designs for the storage and disposal of radioactive wastes considered across the globe. These included modelling studies aimed at evaluating the durability of container designs for high level waste (HLW), spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and intermediate level waste (ILW), experimental studies of the corrosion behaviour of copper, carbon steel, and stainless steel in conditions relevant to storage (atmospheric) or disposal (near neutral or alkaline), as well as studies of archaeological artifacts and natural analogues aimed at supporting long-term predictions. Specific sessions were dedicated to microbial induced corrosion (MIC) and to the corrosion properties of

  9. Applicability of short-term accelerated biofouling studies to predict long-term biofouling accumulation in reverse osmosis membrane systems

    KAUST Repository

    Sanawar, Huma

    2018-02-02

    Biofouling studies addressing biofouling control are mostly executed in short-term studies. It is unclear whether data collected from these experiments are representative for long-term biofouling as occurring in full-scale membrane systems. This study investigated whether short-term biofouling studies accelerated by biodegradable nutrient dosage to feed water were predictive for long-term biofouling development without nutrient dosage. Since the presence of a feed spacer has an strong effect on the degree of biofouling, this study employed six geometrically different feed spacers. Membrane fouling simulators (MFSs) were operated with the same (i) membrane, (ii) feed flow and (iii) feed water, but with feed spacers varying in geometry. For the short-term experiment, biofilm formation was enhanced by nutrient dosage to the MFS feed water, whereas no nutrient dosage was applied in the long-term experiment. Pressure drop development was monitored to characterize the extent of biofouling, while the accumulated viable biomass content at the end of the experimental run was quantified by adenosine triphosphate (ATP) measurements. Impact of feed spacer geometry on biofouling was compared for the short-term and long-term biofouling study. The results of the study revealed that the feed spacers exhibited the same biofouling behavior for (i) the short-term (9-d) study with nutrient dosage and (ii) the long-term (96-d) study without nutrient dosage. For the six different feed spacers, the accumulated viable biomass content (pg ATP.cm) was roughly the same, but the biofouling impact in terms of pressure drop increase in time was significantly different. The biofouling impact ranking of the six feed spacers was the same for the short-term and long-term biofouling studies. Therefore, it can be concluded that short-term accelerated biofouling studies in MFSs are a representative and suitable approach for the prediction of biofouling in membrane filtration systems after long-term

  10. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2018-01-01

    LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

  11. Endorsement of Social and Personal Values Predicts the Desirability of Men and Women as Long-Term Partners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Guilherme S; Barbaro, Nicole; Sela, Yael; Jeffery, Austin J; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K; Zeigler-Hill, Virgil

    2017-01-01

    A prospective romantic partner's desirability as a long-term partner may be affected by the values that he or she endorses. However, few studies have examined the effects of "values" on a person's desirability as a long-term partner. We hypothesized that individuals who endorse social values (vs. personal values) will be perceived as more desirable long-term partners (Hypothesis 1) and that the endorsement of social values will be especially desirable in a male (vs. female) long-term partner (Hypothesis 2). The current study employed a 2 (sex of prospective partner: male vs. female) × 2 (values of prospective partner: personal vs. social) × 2 (physical attractiveness of prospective partner: unattractive vs. highly attractive) mixed-model design. Participants were 339 undergraduates (174 men, 165 women), with ages varying between 18 and 33 years ( M = 19.9, SD = 3.6), and mostly in a romantic relationship (53.7%). Participants reported interest in a long-term relationship with prospective partners depicted in four scenarios (within subjects), each varying along the dimensions of values (personal vs. social) and physical attractiveness (unattractive vs. highly attractive). Individuals endorsing personal values (vs. social values) and men (vs. women) endorsing personal values were rated as less desirable as long-term partners. The current research adds to the partner preferences literature by demonstrating that an individual's ascribed values influence others' perceptions of desirability as a long-term partner and that these effects are consistently sex differentiated, as predicted by an evolutionary perspective on romantic partner preferences.

  12. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  13. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

  14. Predictive value of the Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and its components for long-term survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aukland, Preben; Lando, Martin; Vilholm, Ole

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The "Status Epilepticus Severity Score" (STESS) is the most important clinical score to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with status epilepticus (SE), but its prognostic relevance for long-term survival is unknown. This study therefore examined if STESS and its components...

  15. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A.

    1990-01-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

  16. Hippocampal-prefrontal connectivity predicts midfrontal oscillations and long-term memory performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, M.X.

    2011-01-01

    The hippocampus and prefrontal cortex interact to support working memory (WM) and long-term memory [1, 2 and 3]. Neurophysiologically, WM is thought to be subserved by reverberatory activity of distributed networks within the prefrontal cortex (PFC) [2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8], which become synchronized

  17. Predicting long-term sickness absence and early retirement pension from self-reported work ability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sell, L.; Bultmann, U.; Rugulies, R.; Villadsen, E.; Faber, A.; Sogaard, K.

    2009-01-01

    Objective The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market. Methods Data on work ability were retrieved from a representative cohort study of Danish wage earners and linked with a

  18. Nonverbal behavior observation : collaborative gaming method for prediction of conflicts during long-term missions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voynarovskaya, N.; Gorbunov, R.D.; Barakova, E.I.; Ahn, R.M.C.; Rauterberg, G.W.M.; Yang, H.S.; et al., xx

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a method for monitoring mental state of small isolated crews during long-term missions (such as space mission, polar expeditions, submarine crews, meteorological stations, and etc). It combines the records of negotiation game with monitoring of the nonverbal behavior of the

  19. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  20. A Protein Synthesis and Nitric Oxide-Dependent Presynaptic Enhancement in Persistent Forms of Long-Term Potentiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnstone, Victoria P. A.; Raymond, Clarke R.

    2011-01-01

    Long-term potentiation (LTP) is an important process underlying learning and memory in the brain. At CA3-CA1 synapses in the hippocampus, three discrete forms of LTP (LTP1, 2, and 3) can be differentiated on the basis of maintenance and induction mechanisms. However, the relative roles of pre- and post-synaptic expression mechanisms in LTP1, 2,…

  1. Transforming Growth Factor ß Recruits Persistent MAPK Signaling to Regulate Long-Term Memory Consolidation in "Aplysia Californica"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shobe, Justin; Philips, Gary T.; Carew, Thomas J.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we explore the mechanistic relationship between growth factor signaling and kinase activity that supports the protein synthesis-dependent phase of long-term memory (LTM) consolidation for sensitization of "Aplysia." Specifically, we examine LTM for tail shock-induced sensitization of the tail-elicited siphon withdrawal…

  2. Renal function predicts long-term outcome on enzyme replacement therapy in patients with Fabry disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenders, Malte; Schmitz, Boris; Stypmann, Jörg; Duning, Thomas; Brand, Stefan-Martin; Kurschat, Christine; Brand, Eva

    2017-12-01

    Renal and cardiac involvement is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality in Fabry disease (FD). We analysed the incidence of FD-related renal, cardiac and neurologic end points in patients with FD on long-term enzyme replacement therapy (ERT). A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from two German FD centres was performed. The impact of renal and cardiac function at ERT-naïve baseline on end point development despite ERT was analysed. Fifty-four patients (28 females) receiving ERT (mean 81 ± 21 months) were investigated. Forty per cent of patients were diagnosed with clinical end points before ERT initiation and 50% of patients on ERT developed new clinical end points. In patients initially diagnosed with an end point before ERT initiation, the risk for an additional end point on ERT was increased {hazard ratio [HR] 3.83 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-9.08]; P = 0.0023}. A decreased glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤75 mL/min/1.73 m2 in ERT-naïve patients at baseline was associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular end points [HR 3.59 (95% CI 1.15-11.18); P = 0.0273] as well as for combined renal, cardiac and neurologic end points on ERT [HR 4.77 (95% CI 1.93-11.81); P = 0.0007]. In patients with normal kidney function, left ventricular hypertrophy at baseline predicted a decreased end point-free survival [HR 6.90 (95% CI 2.04-23.27); P = 0.0018]. The risk to develop an end point was independent of sex. In addition to age, even moderately impaired renal function determines FD progression on ERT. In patients with FD, renal and cardiac protection is warranted to prevent patients from deleterious manifestations of the disease. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  3. Immediate and persistent transcriptional correlates of long-term sensitization training at different CNS loci in Aplysia californica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samantha Herdegen

    Full Text Available Repeated noxious stimulation produces long-term sensitization of defensive withdrawal reflexes in Aplysia californica, a form of long-term memory that requires changes in both transcription and translation. Previous work has identified 10 transcripts which are rapidly up-regulated after long-term sensitization training in the pleural ganglia. Here we use quantitative PCR to begin examining how these transcriptional changes are expressed in different CNS loci related to defensive withdrawal reflexes at 1 and 24 hours after long-term sensitization training. Specifically, we sample from a the sensory wedge of the pleural ganglia, which exclusively contains the VC nociceptor cell bodies that help mediate input to defensive withdrawal circuits, b the remaining pleural ganglia, which contain withdrawal interneurons, and c the pedal ganglia, which contain many motor neurons. Results from the VC cluster show different temporal patterns of regulation: 1 rapid but transient up-regulation of Aplysia homologs of C/EBP, C/EBPγ, and CREB1, 2 delayed but sustained up-regulation of BiP, Tolloid/BMP-1, and sensorin, 3 rapid and sustained up-regulation of Egr, GlyT2, VPS36, and an uncharacterized protein (LOC101862095, and 4 an unexpected lack of regulation of Aplysia homologs of calmodulin (CaM and reductase-related protein (RRP. Changes in the remaining pleural ganglia mirror those found in the VC cluster at 1 hour but with an attenuated level of regulation. Because these samples had almost no expression of the VC-specific transcript sensorin, our data suggests that sensitization training likely induces transcriptional changes in either defensive withdrawal interneurons or neurons unrelated to defensive withdrawal. In the pedal ganglia, we observed only a rapid but transient increase in Egr expression, indicating that long-term sensitization training is likely to induce transcriptional changes in motor neurons but raising the possibility of different

  4. Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawar, R.

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management

  5. Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

    2012-06-01

    Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prognostic nutritional index predicts postoperative complications and long-term outcomes of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Nan; Deng, Jing-Yu; Ding, Xue-Wei; Ke, Bin; Liu, Ning; Zhang, Ru-Peng; Liang, Han

    2014-08-14

    To investigate the impact of prognostic nutritional index (PNI) on the postoperative complications and long-term outcomes in gastric cancer patients undergoing total gastrectomy. The data for 386 patients with gastric cancer were extracted and analyzed between January 2003 and December 2008 in our center. The patients were divided into two groups according to the cutoff value of the PNI: those with a PNI ≥ 46 and those with a PNI gastric cancer patients.

  7. Long-term persistence of acquired resistance to 5-fluorouracil in the colon cancer cell line SW620

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tentes, I.K., E-mail: itentes@med.duth.gr [Department of Biochemistry, Medical School, Democritus University of Thrace, 6th km Alexandroupolis-Komotini (Dragana), 68100 Alexandroupolis (Greece); Schmidt, W.M. [Center for Anatomy and Cell Biology, Waehringer Strasse 13, 1090 Vienna (Austria); Krupitza, G. [Institute of Clinical Pathology, Medical University of Vienna, Waehringer Guertel 18-20, 1090 Vienna (Austria); Steger, G.G.; Mikulits, W. [Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Waehringer Guertel 18-20, 1090 Vienna (Austria); Kortsaris, A. [Department of Biochemistry, Medical School, Democritus University of Thrace, 6th km Alexandroupolis-Komotini (Dragana), 68100 Alexandroupolis (Greece); Mader, R.M. [Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Waehringer Guertel 18-20, 1090 Vienna (Austria)

    2010-11-15

    Treatment resistance to antineoplastic drugs represents a major clinical problem. Here, we investigated the long-term stability of acquired resistance to 5-fluorouracil (FU) in an in vitro colon cancer model, using four sub-clones characterised by increasing FU-resistance derived from the cell line SW620. The resistance phenotype was preserved after FU withdrawal for 15 weeks ({approx} 100 cell divisions) independent of the established level of drug resistance and of epigenetic silencing. Remarkably, resistant clones tolerated serum deprivation, adopted a CD133{sup +} CD44{sup -} phenotype, and further exhibited loss of membrane-bound E-cadherin together with predominant nuclear {beta}-catenin localisation. Thus, we provide evidence for a long-term memory of acquired drug resistance, driven by multiple cellular strategies (epithelial-mesenchymal transition and selective propagation of CD133{sup +} cells). These resistance phenomena, in turn, accentuate the malignant phenotype.

  8. Long-term persistence of oral human papillomavirus type 16: the HPV Infection in Men (HIM) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce Campbell, Christine M; Kreimer, Aimée R; Lin, Hui-Yi; Fulp, William; O'Keefe, Michael T; Ingles, Donna J; Abrahamsen, Martha; Villa, Luisa L; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Giuliano, Anna R

    2015-03-01

    Persistent infection with oral HPV16 is believed to drive the development of most oropharyngeal cancers. However, patterns of oral HPV16 persistence remain understudied, particularly among HIV-negative individuals. Oral HPV16 persistence was evaluated among 1,626 participants of the HPV Infection in Men (HIM) Study. Twenty-three oral HPV16-positive men who provided an oral gargle sample on ≥2 study visits were included in the analysis. Archived oral samples from all follow-up visits were tested for HPV16 using Linear Array and INNO-LiPA detection methods. Persistence was evaluated using consecutive HPV16-positive visits held approximately 6 months apart and using the Kaplan-Meier method. Oral HPV16-positive men were aged 18 to 64 years [median, 36 years; interquartile range (IQR), 25-42] and were followed for a median of 44.4 months (IQR, 29.9-49.5). Of 13 incident infections, 4 (30.8%) persisted ≥12 months, 1 (10.0%) persisted ≥24 months, and none persisted ≥36 months [median infection duration, 7.3 months; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.4-NA)]. Of 10 prevalent infections, 9 (90.0%) persisted ≥12 months, 8 (80.0%) persisted ≥24 months, 4 (57.1%) persisted ≥36 months, and 2 (40.0%) persisted ≥48 months (median infection duration, NA). Twelve-month persistence of incident infections increased significantly with age (Ptrend = 0.028). Prevalent oral HPV16 infections in men persisted longer than newly acquired infections, and persistence appeared to increase with age. These findings may explain the high prevalence of oral HPV observed at older ages. Understanding oral HPV16 persistence will aid in the identification of men at high-risk of developing HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

  9. The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

    2018-02-01

    Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

  10. Joint ultrasound baseline abnormalities predict a specific long-term clinical outcome in systemic lupus erythematosus patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corzo, P; Salman-Monte, T C; Torrente-Segarra, V; Polino, L; Mojal, S; Carbonell-Abelló, J

    2017-06-01

    Objective To describe long-term clinical and serological outcome in all systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) domains in SLE patients with hand arthralgia (HA) and joint ultrasound (JUS) inflammatory abnormalities, and to compare them with asymptomatic SLE patients with normal JUS. Methods SLE patients with HA who presented JUS inflammatory abnormalities ('cases') and SLE patients without HA who did not exhibit JUS abnormalities at baseline ('controls') were included. All SLE clinical and serological domain involvement data were collected. End follow-up clinical activity and damage scores (systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index (SLEDAI), Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology (SLICC/ACR)) were recorded. JUS inflammatory abnormalities were defined based on the Proceedings of the Seventh International Consensus Conference on Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT-7) definitions. Statistical analyses were carried out to compare 'cases' and 'controls'. Results A total of 35 patients were recruited. The 'cases', n = 18/35, had a higher incidence of musculoskeletal involvement (arthralgia and/or arthritis) through the follow-up period (38.9% vs 0%, p = 0.008) and received more hydroxychloroquine (61.1% vs 25.0%, p = 0.034) and methotrexate (27.8% vs 0%, p = 0.046) compared to 'controls', n = 17/35. Other comparisons did not reveal any statistical differences. Conclusions We found SLE patients with arthralgia who presented JUS inflammatory abnormalities received more hydroxychloroquine and methotrexate, mainly due to persistent musculoskeletal involvement over time. JUS appears to be a useful technique for predicting worse musculoskeletal outcome in SLE patients.

  11. Predicted environmental impacts of long-term waste management at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topp, S.V.

    1979-01-01

    This paper describes the different alternative approaches to long-term waste management at SRP, along with their probable relative costs, risks, and uncertainties; the issue of methodology for decision-making in nuclear waste management is also raised. This paper contains a preliminary listing of the SRP alternaties including a simple cost-risk analysis. The alternatives are: glass shipped offsite to Federal repository; air-cooled vault with glass at SRP; liquid waste slurry stored in SRP bedrock cavern; and continued tank farm operation with salt and sludge

  12. Retinal vascular fractals predict long-term microvascular complications in type 1 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broe, Rebecca; Rasmussen, Malin L; Frydkjaer-Olsen, Ulrik

    2014-01-01

    : We included 180 patients with type 1 diabetes in a 16 year follow-up study. In baseline retinal photographs (from 1995), all vessels in a zone 0.5-2.0 disc diameters from the disc margin were traced using Singapore Institute Vessel Assessment-Fractal image analysis software. Artefacts were removed......AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Fractal analysis of the retinal vasculature provides a global measure of the complexity and density of retinal vessels summarised as a single variable: the fractal dimension. We investigated fractal dimensions as long-term predictors of microvasculopathy in type 1 diabetes. METHODS....... Retinal fractal analysis therefore is a potential tool for risk stratification in type 1 diabetes....

  13. Perceived stress and anhedonia predict short-and long-term weight change, respectively, in healthy adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Mostafa; Thearle, Marie S; Krakoff, Jonathan; Gluck, Marci E

    2016-04-01

    Perceived stress; emotional eating; anhedonia; depression and dietary restraint, hunger, and disinhibition have been studied as risk factors for obesity. However, the majority of studies have been cross-sectional and the directionality of these relationships remains unclear. In this longitudinal study, we assess their impact on future weight change. Psychological predictors of weight change in short- (6month) and long-term (>1year) periods were studied in 65 lean and obese individuals in two cohorts. Subjects participated in studies of food intake and metabolism that did not include any type of medication or weight loss interventions. They completed psychological questionnaires at baseline and weight change was monitored at follow-up visits. At six months, perceived stress predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.23, P=0.02). There was a significant interaction (r(2)=.38, P=0.009) between perceived stress and positive emotional eating, such that higher scores in both predicted greater weight gain, while those with low stress but high emotional eating scores lost weight. For long-term, higher anhedonia scores predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.24, P=0.04). Depression moderated these effects such that higher scores in both predicted weight gain but higher depression and lower anhedonia scores predicted weight loss. There are different behavioral determinants for short- and long-term weight change. Targeting perceived stress may help with short-term weight loss while depression and anhedonia may be better targets for long-term weight regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

  15. Heavy Alcohol Consumption Effects on Blood Pressure and on Kidney Structure Persist After Long-Term Withdrawal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Leal

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Heavy ethanol consumption is a risk factor for hypertension and prompts organ damage. There is no information regarding the impact of long-term heavy ethanol consumption on kidney structure and function linking to their hypertensive effects nor the repercussions after withdrawal. Methods: Rats were exposed to ethanol for 24 weeks and, afterwards, a group was assigned to withdrawal for 8 weeks. Blood pressure (BP was measured and serum biochemical parameters were quantified. Glomerular volume density, areal density of glomerular tuft and renal corpuscles were determined. Angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1R protein expression was evaluated. Results: Twenty-four weeks of ethanol consumption causes atrophy of renal corpuscles and glomeruli and reduces the volume of glomeruli. Glomerular changes induced by ethanol consumption were still evident after withdrawal. Renal AT1R levels were increased in ethanol-treated rats and returned to control levels during withdrawal. Ethanol consumption also induced an increase in BP, uric acid and albumin levels. Upon withdrawal, systolic and mean arterial pressures decreased, but were still higher than in controls rats. Conclusion: Ethanol consumption induces changes in glomerular morphology associated with increased BP and AT1R expression. Long-term withdrawal was inefficient to restore the structural integrity of renal corpuscles and in lowering systolic pressure.

  16. Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanny Gascuel

    Full Text Available Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

  17. Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

    2013-01-01

    Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. PMID:23675291

  18. Pathologic complete response predicts long-term survival following preoperative radiation therapy for rectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Neelofur R.; Nagle, Deborah A.; Topham, Allan

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The finding of a pathologic complete response (pCR) after preoperative radiation therapy (RT) for rectal cancer is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint for treatment outcome. In most reported series, the pCR rate ranges from 10 to 25%. An underlying assumption is that pCR relates to favorable long-term patient outcome; however, such results are rarely reported. The purpose of this study was to determine the long-term outcome of patients having pCR's following preoperative RT and surgery for rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: Between 1978 and 1993, 49 of 315 patients (16%) were found to have pCR's following 40 to 65 Gy of preoperative RT for rectal cancer (median RT dose 55.8 Gy). Six complete responders also received concurrent 5-FU chemotherapy with RT. Follow-up time ranged from 7 to 224 months (median 52 months). Actuarial overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local control (LC) rates were calculated. Patient outcome was analyzed with respect to pretreatment clinical stage (mobile vs. tethered/fixed on digital exam), tumor level in the rectum as measured from the anorectal ring (0-3 cm vs. >3 cm), type of surgery (local excision, APR, or other), and use of concurrent chemotherapy vs. RT alone. Results: Prior to treatment, clinical stage tumor stage was 43% mobile ((21(49))) and 35% tethered/fixed ((17(49))). Twenty-two percent ((11(49))) did not have palpable tumor at presentation to our institution due to prior local excision of an invasive cancer. Tumor level in the rectum was 74% 0-3 cm, 16% >3 to 6 cm, and 10% > 6 cm. Surgical procedures were 12% APR, 24% LAR, 6% combined abdominal transsacral resection (CATS), 27% coloanal anastamosis, and 31% full thickness local excision. Overall, 2 of 49 patients (4%) developed a local tumor recurrence, and 4 of 49 (8%) developed distant metastases. The overall 5- and 10-year actuarial survival rates were 91% and 86%, respectively. The 5- and 10-year actuarial DFS rate was 85%, and the

  19. SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM WATER LEVEL PREDICTION AT ONE RIVER MEASUREMENT LOCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf Scitovski

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Global hydrological cycles mainly depend on climate changes whose occurrence is predominantly triggered by solar and terrestrial influence, and the knowledge of the high water regime is widely applied in hydrology. Regular monitoring and studying of river water level behavior is important from several perspectives. On the basis of the given data, by using modifications of general approaches known from literature, especially from investigation in hydrology, the problem of long- and short-term water level forecast at one river measurement location is considered in the paper. Long-term forecasting is considered as the problem of investigating the periodicity of water level behavior by using linear-trigonometric regression and short-term forecasting is based on the modification of the nearest neighbor method. The proposed methods are tested on data referring to the Drava River level by Donji Miholjac, Croatia, in the period between the beginning of 1900 and the end of 2012.

  20. Acute deviations from long-term trait depressive symptoms predict systemic inflammatory activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohleder, Nicolas; Miller, Gregory E

    2008-07-01

    Depressive symptoms increase morbidity and mortality from coronary heart disease and systemic inflammation has been proposed as the underlying mechanism. While higher levels of inflammatory mediators have been found in dysphoric individuals, it is not known whether long-term or short-term mood changes are responsible for this phenomenon. A sample of 65 young women provided weekly web-based self-ratings of depressive mood over a period of 20 weeks using the CES-D, and systemic inflammation was assessed by measuring plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) before and after the observation period. CES-D ratings were used to develop state and trait indicators of depressed mood and evaluate their relationship with inflammatory mediators. Hierarchical linear regressions controlling for baseline inflammation, age, and BMI revealed that trait levels of depressive symptoms were not associated with IL-6 (beta=0.09; n.s.) and CRP (beta=0.01; n.s.) concentrations after the observation period. In contrast, state levels of depressive symptoms were associated with changes in IL-6, but not CRP, particularly when they were indexed as the disparity between a person's trait level of symptoms and her CES-D score just prior to IL-6 assessment (beta=0.35; p=0.03). These results lead us to conclude that in young women, state, rather than trait depressed mood stimulates peripheral inflammation as measured by IL-6. This pattern suggests that in this age group, fast-reacting inflammatory mediators such as IL-6 probably respond to short-term changes, for example, in stress hormones or stress hormone sensitivity, rather than long-term dysregulations of allostatic mechanisms.

  1. Transient post-operative atrial fibrillation predicts short and long term adverse events following CABG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Matthew; Galla, John; Blackstone, Eugene; Kapadia, Samir R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the relationship between the development of transient post-operative atrial fibrillation (TPOAF) following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and risk of long-term mortality. Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) following CABG is common and associated with increased morbidity and mortality in the perioperative period. However the impact of TPOAF and its management on long-term morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG surgery remains unclear. Methods The Cleveland Clinic Cardiovascular Information Registry was used to identify 5,205 consecutive patients who underwent CABG between January 1993 and December 2005. Patients with TPOAF (n=1,490) were compared to those without post-operative AF (n=3,645) for the endpoints of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke at 1 year. Results Overall rates of 1-year mortality, MI and stroke were 3.7%, 0.8%, and 2.6%, respectively. Patients with TPOAF had an increased risk of death at 1 year as compared to patients without POAF (6.4% vs. 2.7%; P<0.001), but there was not an increased risk of stroke or MI. Multivariate analysis identified TPOAF as an independent predictor of death at 1 year (HR 1.89, 95% CI, 1.42-2.53; P<0.001). After propensity matching, patients who developed TPOAF experienced a significantly increased risk of death compared with those without TPOAF (HR 1.96, 95% CI, 1.34-2.86; P<0.001). Conclusions In patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG, the presence of TPOAF identifies a subgroup of patients at increased risk for all-cause mortality. Future prospective studies to determine potential beneficial interventions in this large population are warranted. PMID:25414823

  2. Long-term follow-up after mesh removal and selective neurectomy for persistent inguinal postherniorrhaphy pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bischoff, J M; Enghuus, Casper Nørskov; Werner, M U

    2013-01-01

    PURPOSE: Persistent inguinal pain, influencing daily activities, is seen in about 5 % of patients following inguinal herniorrhaphy. Surgical treatment of patients with persistent postherniorrhaphy pain has been associated with pain relief and improvement in functional status. However, the detailed...... and functional ability when comparing preoperative and postoperative assessments. RESULTS: Pain intensities (average, maximum, and during activity) were significantly lower at all time points during follow-up compared to preoperative values (p ...

  3. EXAMINATION OF ELECTROPHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF THE ATRIUMS IN PATIENTS WITH LONG-TERM PERSISTENT FORM OF ATRIAL FIBRILLATION AND VALVULAR HEART DISEASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Kulikov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The study objective is to examine electrophysiological parameters of atrial myocardium, characteristics of atrioventricular conduction, and potential factors affecting recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF in patients with persistent and long-term persistent forms of AF prior to the Labirynth IIIB surgery with single-step correction of valvular heart disease.Materials and methods. The study included 100 adults (48 men, 52 women with persistent and long-term persistent forms of AF and different valvular heart diseases. Mean patient age was 59 years. Mean AF duration was 4 years. All patients were prescribed antiarrhythmic therapy but it proved ineffective. In 15 % of patients, restoration of the sinus rhythm was attempted through electrical cardioversion but long-term control of the sinus rhythm wasn’t achieved. All patients were diagnosed with organic pathology of the mitral valve. Also, in 80 % of patients, relative insufficiency of the tricuspid valve was detected. Chronic heart failure functional class per NYHA was III. Size of the left atrium was 5 cm, mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 61 %. All patients underwent electrical cardioversion. After successful restoration of the sinus rhythm, endocardial electrophysiology study (EES of the heart was performed. Then, correction of valvular pathologies and the Labyrinth IIIB surgery were performed. Results. Examination of refractoriness of different parts of the atriums has shown that effective refractory period (ERP of the atrioventricular node was minimal compared to other parts of the atriums. Maximal ERP duration was observed in the upper part of the right atrium. Therefore, in patients with long history of AF, heterogeneity of atrial myocardium ERP duration is observed. In 17 % of patients, atrial vulnerability was detected. The area of atrial vulnerability was always associated with ERP. Its duration in patients with atrial vulnerability was significantly higher.Conclusion. Long-term

  4. Gamma knife radiosurgery in patients with persistent acromegaly or Cushing's disease: long-term risk of hypopituitarism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen-Inbar, Or; Ramesh, Arjun; Xu, Zhiyuan; Vance, Mary Lee; Schlesinger, David; Sheehan, Jason P

    2016-04-01

    For patient with a recurrent or residual acromegaly or Cushing's disease (CD) after resection, gamma knife radiosurgery (GKRS) is often used. Hypopituitarism is the most common adverse effect after GKRS treatment. The paucity of studies with long-term follow-up has hampered understanding of the latent risks of hypopituitarism in patients with acromegaly or CD. We report the long-term risks of hypopituitarism for patients treated with GKRS for acromegaly or CD. From a prospectively created, IRB-approved database, we identified all patients with acromegaly or CD treated with GKRS at the University of Virginia from 1989 to 2008. Only patients with a minimum endocrine follow-up of 60 months were included. The median follow-up is 159·5 months (60·1-278). Thorough radiological and endocrine assessments were performed immediately before GKRS and at regular follow-up intervals. New onset of hypopituitarism was defined as pituitary hormone deficits after GKRS requiring corresponding hormone replacement. Sixty patients with either acromegaly or CD were included. Median tumour volume at time of GKRS was 1·3 cm(3) (0·3-13·4), and median margin dose was 25 Gy (6-30). GKRS-induced new pituitary deficiency occurred in 58·3% (n = 35) of patients. Growth hormone deficiency was most common (28·3%, n = 17). The actuarial overall rates of hypopituitarism at 3, 5 and 10 years were 10%, 21·7% and 53·3%, respectively. The median time to hypopituitarism was 61 months after GKRS (range, 12-160). Cavernous sinus invasion of the tumour was found to correlate with the occurrence of a new or progressive hypopituitarism after GKRS (P = 0·018). Delayed hypopituitarism increases as a function of time after radiosurgery. Hormone axes appear to vary in terms of radiosensitivity. Patients with adenoma in the cavernous sinus are more prone to develop loss of pituitary function after GKRS. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Hypoxic Prostate/Muscle PO2 Ratio Predicts for Outcome in Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer: Long-Term Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turaka, Aruna; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Horwitz, Eric M.; Greenberg, Richard E.; Movsas, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To correlate tumor oxygenation status with long-term biochemical outcome after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Custom-made Eppendorf PO 2 microelectrodes were used to obtain PO 2 measurements from the prostate (P), focused on positive biopsy locations, and normal muscle tissue (M), as a control. A total of 11,516 measurements were obtained in 57 men with localized prostate cancer immediately before prostate brachytherapy was given. The Eppendorf histograms provided the median PO 2 , mean PO 2 , and % 2 ratio on BF. Results: With a median follow-up time of 8 years, 12 men had ASTRO BF and 8 had Phoenix BF. On multivariate analysis, P/M PO 2 ratio 2 ratio 2 ratio) significantly predicts for poor long-term biochemical outcome, suggesting that novel hypoxic strategies should be investigated.

  6. Frequency and Cause of Persistent Symptoms in Celiac Disease Patients on a Long-term Gluten-free Diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasi, Elisa; Marafini, Irene; Caruso, Roberta; Soderino, Federica; Angelucci, Erika; Del Vecchio Blanco, Giovanna; Paoluzi, Omero A; Calabrese, Emma; Sedda, Silvia; Zorzi, Francesca; Pallone, Francesco; Monteleone, Giovanni

    2016-03-01

    To estimate the frequency and cause of nonresponsive celiac disease (CD). Treatment of CD is based on life-long adherence to a gluten-free diet (GFD). Some celiac patients experience persistence of symptoms despite a GFD. This condition is defined as nonresponsive CD. Celiac patients on a GFD for at least 12 months underwent diet compliance assessment, laboratory tests, breath tests, endoscopic, and histologic evaluations according to the symptoms/signs reported. Seventy of 321 (21.8%) patients had persistent or recurrent symptoms/signs. The cause of symptom persistence was evaluated in 56 of 70 patients. Thirteen of 56 (23%) patients were antiendomysial antibody positive. Among the patients with negative serology, 1 had fibromyalgia, and 3 had evidence that disproved the diagnosis of CD. The remaining 39 patients with negative serology underwent duodenal biopsy sampling, which evidenced histologic alterations in 24 patients. Among the 15 patients with normal histology 3 were lactose intolerant, 9 had irritable bowel syndrome, 2 had gastroesophageal reflux disease, and in 1 patient a cause for the persistent symptom was not identified. In patients with confirmed diagnosis of CD, exposure to dietary gluten was the main cause of persistence of symptoms/signs, and consistently after dietary modification, symptoms resolved in 63% of the patients at later time points during follow-up. Nonresponsive CD occurs in nearly one fifth of celiac patients on GFD and its occurrence suggests further investigations to optimize the management of celiac patients.

  7. Severe Spastic Contractures and Diabetes Mellitus Independently Predict Subsequent Minimal Trauma Fractures Among Long-Term Care Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Kuen; Leung, Man Fuk; Kwan, Chi Wai; Kwan, Joseph

    2016-11-01

    The study aimed to examine the epidemiology of hypertonic contractures and its relationship with minimal trauma fracture (MTF), and to determine the incidence and predictors of (MTF) in long-term care residents. This was a longitudinal cohort study of prospectively collected data. Participants were followed from March 2007 to March 2016 or until death. A 300-bed long-term care hospital in Hong Kong. All long-term care residents who were in need of continuous medical and nursing care for their activities of daily living. Information on patients' demographic data, severe contracture defined as a decrease of 50% or more of the normal passive range of joint movement of the joint, and severe limb spasticity defined by the Modified Ashworth Scale higher than grade 3, medical comorbidities, functional status, cognitive status, nutritional status including body mass index and serum albumin, past history of fractures, were evaluated as potential risk factors for subsequent MTF. Three hundred ninety-six residents [148 males, mean ± standard deviation (SD), age = 79 ± 16 years] were included for analysis. The presence of severe contracture was highly prevalent among the study population: 91% of residents had at least 1 severe contracture, and 41% of residents had severe contractures involving all 4 limbs. Moreover, there were a significant proportion of residents who had severe limb spasticity with the elbow flexors (32.4%) and knee flexors (33.9%) being the most commonly involved muscles. Twelve residents (3%) suffered from subsequent MTF over a median follow-up of 33 (SD = 30) months. Seven out of these 12 residents died during the follow-up period, with a mean survival of 17.8 months (SD = 12.6) after the fracture event. The following 2 factors were found to independently predict subsequent MTF in a multivariate Cox regression: bilateral severe spastic knee contractures (hazard ratio = 16.5, P contractures are common morbidities in long-term care residents

  8. A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jie; Chen, Kuilin; Mori, Junichi; Rashid, Mudassir M.

    2013-01-01

    Optimizing wind power generation and controlling the operation of wind turbines to efficiently harness the renewable wind energy is a challenging task due to the intermittency and unpredictable nature of wind speed, which has significant influence on wind power production. A new approach for long-term wind speed forecasting is developed in this study by integrating GMCM (Gaussian mixture copula model) and localized GPR (Gaussian process regression). The time series of wind speed is first classified into multiple non-Gaussian components through the Gaussian mixture copula model and then Bayesian inference strategy is employed to incorporate the various non-Gaussian components using the posterior probabilities. Further, the localized Gaussian process regression models corresponding to different non-Gaussian components are built to characterize the stochastic uncertainty and non-stationary seasonality of the wind speed data. The various localized GPR models are integrated through the posterior probabilities as the weightings so that a global predictive model is developed for the prediction of wind speed. The proposed GMCM–GPR approach is demonstrated using wind speed data from various wind farm locations and compared against the GMCM-based ARIMA (auto-regressive integrated moving average) and SVR (support vector regression) methods. In contrast to GMCM–ARIMA and GMCM–SVR methods, the proposed GMCM–GPR model is able to well characterize the multi-seasonality and uncertainty of wind speed series for accurate long-term prediction. - Highlights: • A novel predictive modeling method is proposed for long-term wind speed forecasting. • Gaussian mixture copula model is estimated to characterize the multi-seasonality. • Localized Gaussian process regression models can deal with the random uncertainty. • Multiple GPR models are integrated through Bayesian inference strategy. • The proposed approach shows higher prediction accuracy and reliability

  9. Serum Albumin Predicts Long-Term Neurological Outcomes After Acute Spinal Cord Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Bobo; Jutzeler, Catherine R; Cragg, Jacquelyn J; Grassner, Lukas; Schwab, Jan M; Casha, Steve; Geisler, Fred; Kramer, John L K

    2018-01-01

    There is a need to identify reliable biomarkers of spinal cord injury recovery for clinical practice and clinical trials. Our objective was to correlate serum albumin levels with spinal cord injury neurological outcomes. We performed a secondary analysis of patients with traumatic spinal cord injury (n = 591) participating in the Sygen clinical trial. Serum albumin concentrations were obtained as part of routine blood chemistry analysis, at trial entry (24-72 hours), 1, 2, and 4 weeks after injury. The primary outcomes were "marked recovery" and lower extremity motor scores, derived from the International Standards for the Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury. Data were analyzed with multivariable logistic and linear regression to adjust for potential confounders. Serum albumin was significantly associated with spinal cord injury neurological outcomes. Higher serum albumin concentrations at 1, 2, and 4 weeks were associated with higher 52-week lower extremity motor score. Similarly, the odds of achieving "marked neurological recovery" was greater for individuals with higher serum albumin concentrations. The association between serum albumin concentrations and neurological outcomes was independent of initial injury severity, treatment with GM-1, and polytrauma. In spinal cord injury, serum albumin is an independent marker of long-term neurological outcomes. Serum albumin could serve as a feasible biomarker for prognosis at the time of injury and stratification in clinical trials.

  10. Long-term absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse following human papillomavirus infection: role of persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Susanne K; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Plum, Christian Edinger Munk

    2010-01-01

    Infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is the main cause of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer. It has been suggested that information about high-risk HPV type-specific infection might make cervical cancer screening more effective. Persistent HPV infection...

  11. Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88

  12. Predicting long-term outcomes for children affected by HIV and AIDS: perspectives from the scientific study of children's development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Alan; Desmond, Christopher; Garbarino, James; Van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Barbarin, Oscar; Black, Maureen M; Stein, Aryeh D; Hillis, Susan D; Kalichman, Seth C; Mercy, James A; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Rapa, Elizabeth; Saul, Janet R; Dobrova-Krol, Natasha A; Richter, Linda M

    2014-07-01

    The immediate and short-term consequences of adult HIV for affected children are well documented. Little research has examined the long-term implications of childhood adversity stemming from caregiver HIV infection. Through overviews provided by experts in the field, together with an iterative process of consultation and refinement, we have extracted insights from the broader field of child development of relevance to predicting the long-term consequences to children affected by HIV and AIDS. We focus on what is known about the impact of adversities similar to those experienced by HIV-affected children, and for which there is longitudinal evidence. Cautioning that findings are not directly transferable across children or contexts, we examine findings from the study of parental death, divorce, poor parental mental health, institutionalization, undernutrition, and exposure to violence. Regardless of the type of adversity, the majority of children manifest resilience and do not experience any long-term negative consequences. However, a significant minority do and these children experience not one, but multiple problems, which frequently endure over time in the absence of support and opportunities for recovery. As a result, they are highly likely to suffer numerous and enduring impacts. These insights suggest a new strategic approach to interventions for children affected by HIV and AIDS, one that effectively combines a universal lattice of protection with intensive intervention targeted to selected children and families.

  13. Brain atrophy and lesion load predict long term disability in multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Popescu, Veronica; Agosta, Federica; Hulst, Hanneke E

    2013-01-01

    To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS).......To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS)....

  14. Transforming growth factor β recruits persistent MAPK signaling to regulate long-term memory consolidation in Aplysia californica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shobe, Justin; Philips, Gary T; Carew, Thomas J

    2016-05-01

    In this study, we explore the mechanistic relationship between growth factor signaling and kinase activity that supports the protein synthesis-dependent phase of long-term memory (LTM) consolidation for sensitization ofAplysia Specifically, we examine LTM for tail shock-induced sensitization of the tail-elicited siphon withdrawal (T-SW) reflex, a form of memory that requires both (i) extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK1/2; MAPK) activity within identified sensory neurons (SNs) that mediate the T-SW and (ii) the activation of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) signaling. We now report that repeated tail shocks that induce intermediate-term (ITM) and LTM for sensitization, also induce a sustained post-training phase of MAPK activity in SNs (lasting at least 1 h). We identified two mechanistically distinct phases of post-training MAPK: (i) an immediate phase that does not require ongoing protein synthesis or TGFβ signaling, and (ii) a sustained phase that requires both protein synthesis and extracellular TGFβ signaling. We find that LTM consolidation requires sustained MAPK, and is disrupted by inhibitors of protein synthesis and TGFβ signaling during the consolidation window. These results provide strong evidence that TGFβ signaling sustains MAPK activity as an essential mechanistic step for LTM consolidation. © 2016 Shobe et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

  15. Persistence of X-ray-induced chromosomal rearrangements in long-term cultures of human diploid fibroblasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kano, Y.; Little, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    As part of a long-term study of mechanisms of human cell neoplastic transformation, the authors have examined the change in the frequencies of X-ray-induced chromosome rearrangements in density-inhibited human foreskin fibroblasts as a function of subculture time. In nonproliferating cells, the frequency of chromosomal aberrations declined within 24 to 48 hr but still remained at a relatively high level up to 43 days after irradiation. Aberrations disappeared rapidly, however, when the cells were allowed to proliferate, indicating that these lesions are lethal to dividing cells. The frequency of induced translocations, as determined by analysis of G-banded karyotypes, was dose dependent and remained stable up to 20 mean population doublings after irradiation. When subculture of density-inhibited cultures was delayed for 4 hr after irradiation (confluent holding), the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in the first mitosis declined, whereas the translocation frequencies at later passage were elevated as compared with cells subcultured immediately. This correlates with the reported increase in the frequency of transformation under similar conditions. These findings support the hypothesis that chromosomal rearrangements induced by DNA damage may be involved in the initiation of cancer

  16. Long-Term Persistency of Abnormal Heart Rate Variability following Long NICU Stay and Surgery at Birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélanie Morin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Preterm birth is associated with painful procedures during the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU stay. Full-term newborns can also experience pain, following surgery. These procedures can have long-lasting consequences. It has been shown that children born preterm show pain responses and cardiac alterations. This study aimed to explore the heart rate reactivity to pain in 107 subjects born either preterm or full-term who were between 7 and 25 years old at testing. We also evaluated the effect of pain experienced at birth, as represented by a longer NICU stay, time under ventilation, and surgery at birth. Participants were asked to immerse their right forearm in 10°C water for 2 minutes. Electrocardiograms were recorded at baseline and during the immersion procedure. Full-term subjects showed a stable increase in heart rate throughout the procedure, whereas preterm ones showed a strong increase at the beginning, which decreased over time. Also, preterm and full-term subjects who experienced pain at birth showed higher resting heart rate, stronger sympathetic activity, and lower cardiac vagal activity. Our study demonstrated a long-term impact of a long NICU stay and surgery at birth on cardiac autonomic activity. This could lead to impaired reactions to pain or stress in later life.

  17. Whatever after next? adaptive predictions based on short- and long-term memory in visual search

    OpenAIRE

    Conci, M.; Zellin, M.; Muller, Hermann J.

    2012-01-01

    Generating predictions for task-relevant goals is a fundamental requirement of human information processing, as it ensures adaptive success in our complex natural environment. Clark (in press) proposed a model of hierarchical predictive processing, in which perception, attention, and learning are unified within a coherent framework. In this view, incoming sensory signals are constantly matched with top-down expectations or predictions, with the aim of minimizing the prediction error to genera...

  18. [Angiopoietins predict long-term outcomes after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage during an early period].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Wang, Dong; Wei, Huijie; Tian, Ye; Jiang, Rongcai; Yue, Shuyuan; Zhang, Jianning

    2015-05-19

    To evaluate the association between serum levels of angiopoietins (Ang) during an early period (within 72 h) and clinical outcomes after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). This prospective study was conducted at Department of Neurosurgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital. Blood samples from 37 aSAH patients were collected at 8 h (or GOSE). Those with GOSE > 5 were counted as a good outcome while those with GOSE ≤ 5 had a poor outcome. A total of 37 patients with aSAH and 39 healthy controls (HC) were enrolled. The aSAH patients showed a significant rise of Ang-1 within 8 h as compared with HC. The outcomes were good (n = 15) and poor (n = 22). Serum Ang-1 at 8 h (or < 8 h), 24 h and 72 h in good outcomers showed significantly higher than that in poor outcomers [(52 ± 24) vs (37 ± 17) mg/L, (62 ± 26) vs (45 ± 17) mg/L, (107 ± 27) vs (72 ± 18) mg/L]. The serum level of Ang-1 at 8 h and 24 h was one of independent risk factors for aSAH patients by multiariable Logistic regression analysis [adjected OR (95% CI) 1.095 (1.015-1.181) and 1.109 (1.016-1.211)] (P < 0.05). High serum level of Ang-1 during an early period (within 72 h) was associated with good outcomers (r = 0.627, P < 0.001). The serum levels of angiopoietins are significantly altered in aSAH patients, especially higher in good outcomers. And abnormal levels of angiopoietins may affect early brain injury (EBI) after SAH, structural integrity and recovery of blood-brain barrier (BBB) and long-term outcomes in aSAH patients.

  19. Insurance and education predict long-term survival after orthotopic heart transplantation in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jeremiah G; Weiss, Eric S; Arnaoutakis, George J; Russell, Stuart D; Baumgartner, William A; Shah, Ashish S; Conte, John V

    2012-01-01

    Insurance status and education are known to affect health outcomes. However, their importance in orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) is unknown. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database provides a large cohort of OHT recipients in which to evaluate the effect of insurance and education on survival. UNOS data were retrospectively reviewed to identify adult primary OHT recipients (1997 to 2008). Patients were stratified by insurance at the time of transplantation (private/self-pay, Medicare, Medicaid, and other) and college education. All-cause mortality was examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression incorporating 15 variables. Survival was modeled using the Kaplan-Meier method. Insurance for 20,676 patients was distributed as follows: private insurance/self-pay, 12,298 (59.5%); Medicare, 5,227 (25.3%); Medicaid, 2,320 (11.2%); and "other" insurance, 831 (4.0%). Educational levels were recorded for 15,735 patients (76.1% of cohort): 7,738 (49.2%) had a college degree. During 53 ± 41 months of follow-up, 6,125 patients (29.6%) died (6.7 deaths/100 patient-years). Survival differed by insurance and education. Medicare and Medicaid patients had 8.6% and 10.0% lower 10-year survival, respectively, than private/self-pay patients. College-educated patients had 7.0% higher 10-year survival. On multivariable analysis, college education decreased mortality risk by 11%. Medicare and Medicaid increased mortality risk by 18% and 33%, respectively (p ≤ 0.001). Our study examining insurance and education in a large cohort of OHT patients found that long-term mortality after OHT is higher in Medicare/Medicaid patients and in those without a college education. This study points to potential differences in the care of OHT patients based on education and insurance status. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Cephalometric variables predicting the long-term success or failure of combined rapid maxillary expansion and facial mask therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this study was to select a model of cephalometric variables to predict the results of early treatment of Class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by comprehensive treatment with fixed appliances. Lateral cephalograms of 42 patients (20 boys, 22 girls) with Class III malocclusion were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age 8 years 6 months +/- 2 years, at stage I in cervical vertebral maturation). All patients were reevaluated after a mean period of 6 years 6 months (at stage IV or V in cervical vertebral maturation) that included active treatment plus retention. At this time, the sample was divided into 2 groups according to occlusal criteria: a successful group (30 patients) and an unsuccessful group (12 patients). Discriminant analysis was applied to select pretreatment predictive variables of long-term treatment outcome. Stepwise variable selection of the cephalometric measurements at the first observation identified 3 predictive variables. Orthopedic treatment of Class III malocclusion might be unfavorable over the long term when a patient's pretreatment cephalometric records exhibit a long mandibular ramus (ie, increased posterior facial height), an acute cranial base angle, and a steep mandibular plane angle. On the basis of the equation generated by the multivariate statistical method, the outcome of interceptive orthopedic treatment for each new patient with Class III malocclusion can be predicted with a probability error of 16.7%.

  1. Prediction of Bond Wire Fatigue of IGBTs in a PV Inverter Under a Long-Term Operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Wang, Huai; Yang, Yongheng

    2016-01-01

    consumption of bond wires of IGBT modules in a Photovoltaic (PV) inverter. The variations in IGBT parameters (e.g., on-state collector-emitter voltage), lifetime models, and environmental and operational stresses are taken into account in the lifetime prediction. The distribution of the annual lifetime...... consumption is estimated based on a long-term annual stress profile of solar irradiance and ambient temperature. The proposed method enables a more realistic lifetime prediction with a specified confidence level compared to the state-of-the-art approaches. A study case of IGBT modules in a 10 kW three......Bond wire fatigue is one of the dominant failure mechanisms in IGBT modules under cyclic stresses. However, there are still major challenges ahead to achieve a realistic bond wire lifetime prediction in field operation. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based analysis method to predict the lifetime...

  2. Prediction of IRI in short and long terms for flexible pavements: ANN and GMDH methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziari, H.; Sobhani, J.; Ayoubinejad, J.; Hartmann, Timo

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of pavement condition is one of the most important issues in pavement management systems. In this paper, capabilities of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and group method of data handling (GMDH) methods in predicting flexible pavement conditions were analysed in three levels: in 1 year,

  3. Cognitive deficits in long-term survivors of childhood brain tumors: Identification of predictive factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reimers, Tonny Solveig; Ehrenfels, Susanne; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

    2003-01-01

    To describe cognitive function and to evaluate the association between potentially predictive factors and cognitive outcome in an unselected population of survivors of childhood brain tumors.......To describe cognitive function and to evaluate the association between potentially predictive factors and cognitive outcome in an unselected population of survivors of childhood brain tumors....

  4. Nuclear Waste Disposal and Strategies for Predicting Long-Term Performance of Material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wicks, G.G.

    2001-01-01

    Ceramics have been an important part of the nuclear community for many years. On December 2, 1942, an historic event occurred under the West Stands of Stagg Field, at the University of Chicago. Man initiated his first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction and controlled it. The impact of this event on civilization is considered by many as monumental and compared by some to other significant events in history, such as the invention of the steam engine and the manufacturing of the first automobile. Making this event possible and the successful operation of this first man-made nuclear reactor, was the use of forty tons of UO2. The use of natural or enriched UO2 is still used today as a nuclear fuel in many nuclear power plants operating world-wide. Other ceramic materials, such as 238Pu, are used for other important purposes, such as ceramic fuels for space exploration to provide electrical power to operate instruments on board spacecrafts. Radioisotopic Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are used to supply electrical power and consist of a nuclear heat source and converter to transform heat energy from radioactive decay into electrical power, thus providing reliable and relatively uniform power over the very long lifetime of a mission. These sources have been used in the Galileo spacecraft orbiting Jupiter and for scientific investigations of Saturn with the Cassini spacecraft. Still another very important series of applications using the unique properties of ceramics in the nuclear field, are as immobilization matrices for management of some of the most hazardous wastes known to man. For example, in long-term management of radioactive and hazardous wastes, glass matrices are currently in production immobilizing high-level radioactive materials, and cementious forms have also been produced to incorporate low level wastes. Also, as part of nuclear disarmament activities, assemblages of crystalline phases are being developed for immobilizing weapons grade plutonium, to

  5. Long-term efficacy and safety of omalizumab in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Tianwen; Wang, Shaobin; Xu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Chao; Zhao, Yun; Hu, Yue; Cao, Chao; Ying, Songmin; Chen, Zhihua; Li, Wen; Wu, Bin; Shen, Huahao

    2015-01-01

    Currently, limited information is available to clinicians regarding the long-term efficacy of omalizumab treatment for allergic asthma. In this report, we aimed to (i) systematically review the evidence regarding the long-term efficacy of omalizumab in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma, and to (ii) discuss the cost-effectiveness evidence published for omalizumab in this patient population. A comprehensive search for randomized controlled trials (RCTs; ≥52 weeks) was performed, and six studies met our final inclusion criteria (n = 2,749). Omalizumab was associated with significant improvements in quality of life and the Global Evaluation of Treatment Effectiveness. Omalizumab also allowed patients to completely withdraw from inhaled corticosteroid therapy and did not increase the overall incidence of adverse events. However, there was insufficient evidence that omalizumab reduced the incidence of exacerbations, and the cost-effectiveness of omalizumab varied across studies. Our data indicated that omalizumab use for at least 52 weeks in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma was accompanied by an acceptable safety profile, but it lacked effect on the asthma exacerbations. Use of omalizumab was associated with a higher cost than conventional therapy, but these increases may be cost-effective if the medication is used in patients with severe allergic asthma. PMID:25645133

  6. Long-term anti-HBs antibody persistence following infant vaccination against hepatitis B and evaluation of anamnestic response: a 20-year follow-up study in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poovorawan, Yong; Chongsrisawat, Voranush; Theamboonlers, Apiradee; Crasta, Priya Diana; Messier, Marc; Hardt, Karin

    2013-08-01

    Hepatitis B vaccine has been available worldwide since the mid-1980s. This vaccine was evaluated in a clinical trial in Thailand, conducted on subjects born to hepatitis B surface antigen positive and hepatitis B e-antigen positive mothers and vaccinated according to a 4-dose schedule at 0, 1, 2 and 12 mo of age and a single dose of hepatitis B immunoglobulin concomitantly at birth. All enrolled subjects seroconverted and were followed for 20 y to assess the persistence of antibody to the hepatitis B surface antigen (anti-HBs) (NCT00240539). At year 20, 64% of subjects had anti-HBs antibody concentrations≥10 milli-international units per milli liter (mIU/ml) and 92% of subjects had detectable levels (≥3.3 mIU/ml) of anti-HBs antibodies. At year 20, subjects with anti-HBs antibody titermemory (NCT00657657). Anamnestic response to the challenge dose was observed in 96.6% of subjects with an 82-fold (13.2 to 1082.4 mIU/ml) increase in anti-HBs antibody geometric mean concentrations. This study confirms the long-term immunogenicity of the 4-dose regimen of the HBV vaccine eliciting long-term persistence of antibodies and immune memory against hepatitis B for up to at least 20 y after vaccination.

  7. Long-term persistence and function of hematopoietic stem cell-derived chimeric antigen receptor T cells in a nonhuman primate model of HIV/AIDS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anjie Zhen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Chimeric Antigen Receptor (CAR T-cells have emerged as a powerful immunotherapy for various forms of cancer and show promise in treating HIV-1 infection. However, significant limitations are persistence and whether peripheral T cell-based products can respond to malignant or infected cells that may reappear months or years after treatment remains unclear. Hematopoietic Stem/Progenitor Cells (HSPCs are capable of long-term engraftment and have the potential to overcome these limitations. Here, we report the use of a protective CD4 chimeric antigen receptor (C46CD4CAR to redirect HSPC-derived T-cells against simian/human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV infection in pigtail macaques. CAR-containing cells persisted for more than 2 years without any measurable toxicity and were capable of multilineage engraftment. Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART treatment followed by cART withdrawal resulted in lower viral rebound in CAR animals relative to controls, and demonstrated an immune memory-like response. We found CAR-expressing cells in multiple lymphoid tissues, decreased tissue-associated SHIV RNA levels, and substantially higher CD4/CD8 ratios in the gut as compared to controls. These results show that HSPC-derived CAR T-cells are capable of long-term engraftment and immune surveillance. This study demonstrates for the first time the safety and feasibility of HSPC-based CAR therapy in a large animal preclinical model.

  8. Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

    2016-01-01

    Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  9. Screening instruments for predicting return to work in long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Momsen, A-M H; Stapelfeldt, C M; Nielsen, C V

    2017-01-01

    Background: Multiple somatic symptoms are common and may cause prolonged sickness absence (SA) and unsuccessful return to work (RTW). Aims: To compare three instruments and their predictive and discriminative abilities regarding RTW. Methods: A longitudinal cohort study of participants recruited...

  10. Long-term outcomes following laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding: postoperative psychological sequelae predict outcome at 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholtz, Samantha; Bidlake, Louise; Morgan, John; Fiennes, Alberic; El-Etar, Ashraf; Lacey, John Hubert; McCluskey, Sara

    2007-09-01

    NICE guidelines state that patients with psychological contra-indications should not be considered for bariatric surgery, including Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding (LAGB) surgery as treatment of morbid obesity, although no consistent correlation between psychiatric illness and long-term outcome in LAGB has been established. This is to our knowledge the first study to evaluate long-term outcomes in LAGB for a full range of DSM-IV defined psychiatric and eating disorders, and forms part of a research portfolio developed by the authors aimed at defining psychological predictors of bariatric surgery in the short-, medium- and long-term. Case notes of 37 subjects operated on between April 1997 and June 2000, who had undergone structured clinical interview during pre-surgical assessment to yield diagnoses of mental and eating disorders according to DSM-IV criteria were analyzed according to a set of operationally defined criteria. Statistical analysis was carried out to compare those with a poor outcome and those considered to have a good outcome in terms of psychiatric profile. In this group of mainly female, Caucasian subjects, ranging in age from 27 to 60 years, one-third were diagnosed with a mental disorder according to DSM-IV criteria. The development of postoperative DSM-IV defined binge eating disorder (BED) or depression strongly predicted poor surgical outcome, but pre-surgical psychiatric factors alone did not. Although pre-surgical psychiatric assessment alone cannot predict outcome, an absence of preoperative psychiatric illness should not reassure surgeons who should be mindful of postoperative psychiatric sequelae, particularly BED. The importance of providing an integrated biopsychosocial model of care in bariatric teams is highlighted.

  11. Altered duodenal microbiota composition in celiac disease patients suffering from persistent symptoms on a long-term gluten-free diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wacklin, Pirjo; Laurikka, Pilvi; Lindfors, Katri; Collin, Pekka; Salmi, Teea; Lähdeaho, Marja-Leena; Saavalainen, Päivi; Mäki, Markku; Mättö, Jaana; Kurppa, Kalle; Kaukinen, Katri

    2014-12-01

    A significant fraction of celiac disease patients suffer from persistent symptoms despite a long-term gluten-free diet (GFD) and normalized small bowel mucosa. The commonly suggested reasons, such as inadvertent gluten-intake or presence of other gastrointestinal disease, do not explain the symptoms in all these patients. Recently, alterations in intestinal microbiota have been associated with autoimmune disorders, including celiac disease. This led us to test a hypothesis that abnormal intestinal microbiota may be associated with persisting gastrointestinal symptoms in treated celiac disease patients. Duodenal microbiota was analyzed in 18 GFD-treated patients suffering from persistent symptoms and 18 treated patients without symptoms by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing. The celiac disease patients had been following a strict GFD for several years and had restored small bowel mucosa and negative celiac autoantibodies. Their symptoms on GFD were assessed with Gastrointestinal Symptom Rating Scale. The results of several clustering methods showed that the treated celiac disease patients with persistent symptoms were colonized by different duodenal microbiota in comparison with patients without symptoms. The treated patients with persistent symptoms had a higher relative abundance of Proteobacteria (P=0.04) and a lower abundance of Bacteroidetes (P=0.01) and Firmicutes (P=0.05). Moreover, their microbial richness was reduced. The results indicated intestinal dysbiosis in patients with persistent symptoms even while adhering to a strict GFD. Our findings indicate that dysbiosis of microbiota is associated with persistent gastrointestinal symptoms in treated celiac disease patients and open new possibilities to treat this subgroup of patients.

  12. Murine model for Fusarium oxysporum invasive fusariosis reveals organ-specific structures for dissemination and long-term persistence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katja Schäfer

    Full Text Available The soil-borne plant pathogen Fusarium oxysporum causes life-threatening invasive fusariosis in immunocompromised individuals. The mechanism of infection in mammalian hosts is largely unknown. In the present study we show that the symptoms of disseminated fusariosis caused by F. oxysporum in immunosuppressed mice are remarkably similar to those reported in humans. Distinct fungal structures were observed inside the host, depending on the infected organ. Invasive hyphae developed in the heart and kidney, causing massive colonization of the organs. By contrast, chlamydospore-like survival structures were found in lung, spleen and liver. Systemically infected mice also developed skin and eye infections, as well as thrombosis and necrosis in the tail. We further show that F. oxysporum can disseminate and persist in the organs of immunocompetent animals, and that these latent infections can lead to lethal systemic fusariosis if the host is later subjected to immunosuppressive treatment.

  13. Long-term persistence and fire resilience of oak shrubfields in dry conifer forests of northern New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiterman, Christopher H.; Margolis, Ellis; Allen, Craig D.; Falk, Donald A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

    2017-01-01

    Extensive high-severity fires are creating large shrubfields in many dry conifer forests of the interior western USA, raising concerns about forest-to-shrub conversion. This study evaluates the role of disturbance in shrubfield formation, maintenance and succession in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. We compared the environmental conditions of extant Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii) shrubfields with adjoining dry conifer forests and used dendroecological methods to determine the multi-century fire history and successional dynamics of five of the largest shrubfields (76–340 ha). Across the study area, 349 shrubfields (5–368 ha) occur in similar topographic and climate settings as dry conifer forests. This suggests disturbance, rather than other biophysical factors, may explain their origins and persistence. Gambel oak ages and tree-ring fire scars in our sampled shrubfields indicate they historically (1664–1899) burned concurrently with adjoining conifer forests and have persisted for over 115 years in the absence of fire. Aerial imagery from 1935 confirmed almost no change in sampled shrubfield patch sizes or boundaries over the twentieth century. The largest shrubfield we identified is less than 4% the size of the largest conifer-depleted and substantially shrub-dominated area recently formed in the Jemez following extensive high-severity wildfires, indicating considerable departure from historical patterns and processes. Projected hotter droughts and increasingly large high-severity fires could trigger more forest-to-shrub transitions and maintain existing shrubfields, inhibiting conifer forest recovery. Restoration of surface fire regimes and associated historical forest structures likely could reduce the rate and patch size of dry conifer forests being converted to shrubfields.

  14. Persistence of normal cardiac function and myocardial perfusion in irradiated long-term survivors of Hodgkin's disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constine, L.S.; Schwartz, R.G.; Savage, D.E.; King, V.; Muhs, A.; Rubin, P.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: The risk of myocardial infarction and cardiac dysfunction following mantle irradiation (RT) for Hodgkin's disease is controversial. The relative risk of fatal myocardial infarction is 2.8 in our Hodgkin's patients, similar to other reports. Sensitive evaluations of cardiac function and myocardial perfusion might be expected to reveal pre-clinical abnormalities of potential significance. We hypothesized the presence of pre-clinical cardiac toxicity and progressive deterioration of left ventricular performance and myocardial ischemia over time in long-term survivors of Hodgkin's disease. The data reported herein extend our previous study in patient number (n=50) and follow-up duration (mean 16.5 years). Materials and Methods: Equilibrium radionuclide angiocardiography (ERNA) was used to quantify left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function with LV ejection fraction (LVEF) and peak filling rate (PFR), respectively. Quantitative myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) and ECG stress testing with exercise or dipyridamole were used to assess myocardial perfusion and electrical function. Patients at least 1.0 year after RT were eligible if ≤ 50 years old at RT and without known Hodgkin's or cardiac disease. Fifty patients, ages 10-46 years (mean 26.0) at RT, were tested 1.1 to 29.1 years (mean 9.1) after RT. Seventeen patients were tested 2 - 3 times separated by 0.5 - 6.5 years (mean 3.3). The mean central cardiac RT dose was 35.1 Gy (range 18.5 - 47.5) in daily 1.5-2.0 Gy fractions. Twelve patients were additionally irradiated to the left ventricle (LVRT), usually through partial transmission left lung shields (range 14.3-21.3 Gy). Results: No patient had symptomatic cardiac disease at the time of evaluation. The mean LVEF (first test, n = 50) was 60 ± 6% (range 42-73%) [normal ≥ 50%], and PFR (first test, n=44) was 3.43 ± 0.83 end diastolic volume per second (range 1.5-5.2 EDV/sec) [normal ≥ 2.54 EDV/sec] with 2 and 7 patients below normal

  15. The family environment predicts long-term academic achievement and classroom behavior following traumatic brain injury in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durber, Chelsea M; Yeates, Keith Owen; Taylor, H Gerry; Walz, Nicolay Chertkoff; Stancin, Terry; Wade, Shari L

    2017-07-01

    This study examined how the family environment predicts long-term academic and behavioral functioning in school following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in early childhood. Using a concurrent cohort, prospective design, 15 children with severe TBI, 39 with moderate TBI, and 70 with orthopedic injury (OI) who were injured when they were 3-7 years of age were compared on tests of academic achievement and parent and teacher ratings of school performance and behavior on average 6.83 years postinjury. Soon after injury and at the longer term follow-up, families completed measures of parental psychological distress, family functioning, and quality of the home environment. Hierarchical linear regression analyses examined group differences in academic outcomes and their associations with measures of the early and later family environment. The severe TBI group, but not the moderate TBI group, performed worse than did the OI group on all achievement tests, parent ratings of academic performance, and teacher ratings of internalizing problems. Higher quality early and late home environments predicted stronger academic skills and better classroom behavior for children with both TBI and OI. The early family environment more consistently predicted academic achievement, whereas the later family environment more consistently predicted classroom functioning. The quality of the home environment predicted academic outcomes more strongly than did parental psychological distress or family functioning. TBI in early childhood has long-term consequences for academic achievement and school performance and behavior. Higher quality early and later home environments predict better school outcomes for both children with TBI and children with OI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoas, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

  17. Short-Term changes on MRI predict long-Term changes on radiography in rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peterfy, Charles; Strand, Vibeke; Tian, Lu

    2017-01-01

    Objective In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), MRI provides earlier detection of structural damage than radiography (X-ray) and more sensitive detection of intra-Articular inflammation than clinical examination. This analysis was designed to evaluate the ability of early MRI findings to predict subsequent...

  18. Admission body temperature predicts long-term mortality after acute stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, L P; Jørgensen, H S; Rungby, Jørgen

    2002-01-01

    Body temperature is considered crucial in the management of acute stroke patients. Recently hypothermia applied as a therapy for stroke has been demonstrated to be feasible and safe in acute stroke patients. In the present study, we investigated the predictive role of admission body temperature...

  19. Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care. PMID:26834327

  20. Comparison of measured and predicted long term performance of grid a connected photovoltaic system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondol, Jayanta Deb; Yohanis, Yigzaw G.; Norton, Brian

    2007-01-01

    Predicted performance of a grid connected photovoltaic (PV) system using TRNSYS was compared with measured data. A site specific global-diffuse correlation model was developed and used to calculate the beam and diffuse components of global horizontal insolation. A PV module temperature equation and a correlation relating input and output power of an inverter were developed using measured data and used in TRNSYS to perform PV array and inverter outputs simulation. Different combinations of the tilted surface radiation model, global-diffuse correlation model and PV module temperature equation were used in the simulations. Statistical error analysis was performed to compare the results for each combination. The simulation accuracy was improved by using the new global-diffuse correlation and module temperature equation in the TRNSYS simulation. For an isotropic sky tilted surface radiation model, the average monthly difference between measured and predicted PV output before and after modification of the TRNSYS component were 10.2% and 3.3%, respectively, and, for an anisotropic sky model, 15.4% and 10.7%, respectively. For inverter output, the corresponding errors were 10.4% and 3.3% and 15.8% and 8.6%, respectively. Measured PV efficiency, overall system efficiency, inverter efficiency and performance ratio of the system were compared with the predicted results. The predicted PV performance parameters agreed more closely with the measured parameters in summer than in winter. The difference between predicted performances using an isotropic and an anisotropic sky tilted surface models is between 1% and 2%

  1. Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Ernest Y.

    1992-01-01

    Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

  2. Persistent Psychopathology in the Wake of Civil War: Long-Term Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Nimba County, Liberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockers, Peter C.; Saydee, Geetor; Macauley, Rose; Varpilah, S. Tornorlah; Kruk, Margaret E.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives. We assessed the geographical distribution of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in postconflict Nimba County, Liberia, nearly 2 decades after the end of primary conflict in the area, and we related this pattern to the history of conflict. Methods. We administered individual surveys to a population-based sample of 1376 adults aged 19 years or older. In addition, we conducted a historical analysis of conflict in Nimba County, Liberia, where the civil war started in 1989. Results. The prevalence of PTSD in Nimba County was high at 48.3% (95% confidence interval = 45.7, 50.9; n = 664). The geographical patterns of traumatic event experiences and of PTSD were consistent with the best available information about the path of the intranational conflict that Nimba County experienced in 1989–1990. Conclusions. The demonstration of a “path of PTSD” coincident with the decades-old path of violence dramatically underscores the direct link between population burden of psychopathology and the experience of violent conflict. Persistent postconflict disruptions of social and physical context may explain some of the observed patterns. PMID:20634461

  3. Long-term persistence of robust antibody and cytotoxic T cell responses in recovered patients infected with SARS coronavirus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taisheng Li

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Most of the individuals infected with SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV spontaneously recovered without clinical intervention. However, the immunological correlates associated with patients' recovery are currently unknown. In this report, we have sequentially monitored 30 recovered patients over a two-year period to characterize temporal changes in SARS-CoV-specific antibody responses as well as cytotoxic T cell (CTL responses. We have found persistence of robust antibody and CTL responses in all of the study subjects throughout the study period, with a moderate decline one year after the onset of symptoms. We have also identified two potential major CTL epitopes in N proteins based on ELISPOT analysis of pooled peptides. However, despite the potent immune responses and clinical recovery, peripheral lymphocyte counts in the recovered patients have not yet been restored to normal levels. In summary, our study has, for the first time, characterized the temporal and dynamic changes of humoral and CTL responses in the natural history of SARS-recovered individuals, and strongly supports the notion that high and sustainable levels of immune responses correlate strongly with the disease outcome. Our findings have direct implications for future design and development of effective therapeutic agents and vaccines against SARS-CoV infection.

  4. Microgravity spheroids as a reliable, long-term tool for predictive toxicology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fey, S. J.; Wrzesinski, Krzysztof

    2013-01-01

    those seen in vivo. Studies with 5 common drugs (acetaminophen, amiodarone, metformin, phenformin, and valproic acid) have shown that they are more predictive of lethally-toxic plasma levels in vivo than published studies using primary human hepatocytes. Shotgun proteomics has revealed that the gain...... this time they are metabolically stable for at least 24 days more; grow slowly (a doubling time of >20 days); produce physiological levels of urea, cholesterol and ATP; exhibit stable gene expression (for selected liver relevant genes); and can post translationally modify proteins in a manner which mirrors...

  5. Retinal Vessel Calibers Predict Long-term Microvascular Complications in Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broe, Rebecca; Rasmussen, Malin L; Frydkjaer-Olsen, Ulrik

    2014-01-01

    Diabetic neuropathy, nephropathy, and retinopathy cause significant morbidity in patients with type 1 diabetes, even though improvements in treatment modalities delay the appearance and reduce the severity of these complications. To prevent or further delay the onset, it is necessary to better.......5-1 disc diameter from the disc margin were measured and summarized as the central artery and vein equivalents. In multiple regression analyses, we found wider venular diameters and smaller arteriolar diameters were both predictive of the 16-year development of nephropathy, neuropathy, and proliferative...

  6. A finite element modeling method for predicting long term corrosion rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, J.W.; Chan, S.

    1984-01-01

    For the analyses of galvanic corrosion, pitting and crevice corrosion, which have been identified as possible corrosion processes for nuclear waste isolation, a finite element method has been developed for the prediction of corrosion rates. The method uses a finite element mesh to model the corrosive environment and the polarization curves of metals are assigned as the boundary conditions to calculate the corrosion cell current distribution. A subroutine is used to calculate the chemical change with time in the crevice or the pit environments. In this paper, the finite element method is described along with experimental confirmation

  7. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  8. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  9. Annual and long-term prediction of the atmospheric corrosion of metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morcillo, M.

    1998-01-01

    The atmospheric corrosion of metals is known to be a discontinuous electrochemical process which takes place only when the metallic surface is wet or moistened by different meteorological phenomena (rain, humidity condensation, fog, etc.) The magnitude of atmospheric corrosion would be relatively low if it were not for the presence of certain pollutants in the atmosphere, mainly sulphur dioxide (anthropogenic pollutant) and marine chlorides (natural pollutant). The literature contains different models for predicting the atmospheric metals over short periods (generally one year) and long periods (15, 20 or more years) of atmospheric exposure. In addition to the different meteorological factors (volume of precipitation, days of rain, relative humidity (RH), T, etc.), atmospheric SO 2 deposition rate and atmospheric salinity (Cl - ) appear as independent variables in all of these models. (Author)

  10. Long-term prediction of reading accuracy and speed: The importance of paired-associate learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Mads; Asmussen, Vibeke; Elbro, Carsten

    Purpose: Several cross-sectional studies have found a correlation between paired-associate learning (PAL) and reading (e.g. Litt et al., 2013; Messbauer & de Jong, 2003, 2006). These findings suggest that verbal learning of phonological forms is important for reading. However, results from...... longitudinal studies have been mixed (e.g. Lervåg & Hulme, 2009; Horbach et al. 2015). The present study investigated the possibility that the mixed results may be a result of a conflation of accuracy and speed. It is possible that PAL is a stronger correlate of reading accuracy than speed (Litt et al., 2013...... of reading comprehension and isolated sight word reading accuracy and speed. Results: PAL predicted unique variance in sight word accuracy, but not speed. Furthermore, PAL was indirectly linked to reading comprehension through sight word accuracy. RAN correlated with both accuracy and speed...

  11. Going outdoors daily predicts long-term functional and health benefits among ambulatory older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Jeremy M; Cohen, Aaron; Hammerman-Rozenberg, Robert; Azoulay, Daniel; Maaravi, Yoram; Stessman, Jochanan

    2008-04-01

    This article examines the association between frequency of going out of the house and health and functional status among older people. A randomly chosen cohort of ambulatory participants born in 1920 or 1921 from the Jerusalem Longitudinal Study underwent assessments for health, functional, and psychosocial variables at ages 70 and 77. Twelve-year mortality data were collected. Women went out daily less than did men. Participants going out daily at age 70 reported significantly fewer new complaints at age 77 of musculoskeletal pain, sleep problems, urinary incontinence, and decline in activities of daily living (ADLs). Logistic regression analysis indicated that not going out daily at age 70 was predictive of subsequent dependence in ADL, poor self-rated health, and urinary incontinence at age 77. Going out daily is beneficial among independent older people, correlating with reduced functional decline and improved health measures.

  12. Predicting Adverse Health Outcomes in Long-Term Survivors of a Childhood Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaya S. Moskowitz

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available More than 80% of children and young adults diagnosed with invasive cancer will survive five or more years beyond their cancer diagnosis. This population has an increased risk for serious illness- and treatment-related morbidity and premature mortality. A number of these adverse health outcomes, such as cardiovascular disease and some second primary neoplasms, either have modifiable risk factors or can be successfully treated if detected early. Absolute risk models that project a personalized risk of developing a health outcome can be useful in patient counseling, in designing intervention studies, in forming prevention strategies, and in deciding upon surveillance programs. Here, we review existing absolute risk prediction models that are directly applicable to survivors of a childhood cancer, discuss the concepts and interpretation of absolute risk models, and examine ways in which these models can be used applied in clinical practice and public health.

  13. Late Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Initiation Is Associated with Long-Term Persistence of Systemic Inflammation and Metabolic Abnormalities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghislain, Mathilde; Bastard, Jean-Philippe; Meyer, Laurence; Capeau, Jacqueline; Fellahi, Soraya; Gérard, Laurence; May, Thierry; Simon, Anne; Vigouroux, Corinne; Goujard, Cécile

    2015-01-01

    Objectives HIV-induced immunodeficiency is associated with metabolic abnormalities and systemic inflammation. We investigated the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on restoration of insulin sensitivity, markers of immune activation and inflammation. Methods Immunological, metabolic and inflammatory status was assessed at antiretroviral therapy initiation and three years later in 208 patients from the ANRS-COPANA cohort. Patients were compared according to their pre-ART CD4+ cell count (group 1: ≤ 200/mm3, n = 66 vs. group 2: > 200/mm3, n = 142). Results Median CD4+ cell count increased in both groups after 3 years of successful ART but remained significantly lower in group 1 than in group 2 (404 vs 572 cells/mm3). Triglyceride and insulin levels were higher or tended to be higher in group 1 than in group 2 at ART initiation (median: 1.32 vs 0.97 mmol/l, p = 0.04 and 7.6 vs 6.8 IU, p = 0.09, respectively) and remained higher after three years of ART (1.42 vs 1.16 mmol/L, p = 0.0009 and 8.9 vs 7.2 IU, p = 0.01). After adjustment for individual characteristics and antiretroviral therapy regimens (protease inhibitor (PI), zidovudine), insulin levels remained significantly higher in patients with low baseline CD4+ cell count. Baseline IL-6, sCD14 and sTNFR2 levels were higher in group 1 than in group 2. Most biomarkers of immune activation/inflammation declined during ART, but IL-6 and hsCRP levels remained higher in patients with low baseline CD4+ cell count than in the other patients (median are respectively 1.4 vs 1.1 pg/ml, p = 0.03 and 2.1 vs 1.3 mg/ml, p = 0.07). Conclusion After three years of successful ART, low pretreatment CD4+ T cell count remained associated with elevated insulin, triglyceride, IL-6 and hsCRP levels. These persistent metabolic and inflammatory abnormalities could contribute to an increased risk of cardiovascular and metabolic disease. PMID:26636578

  14. Predicting long-term catchment nutrient export: the use of nonlinear time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Peter; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Szolgay, Jan; Komornikova, Magda

    2010-05-01

    After the Second World War the nitrate concentrations in European water bodies changed significantly as the result of increased nitrogen fertilizer use and changes in land use. However, in the last decades, as a consequence of the implementation of nitrate-reducing measures in Europe, the nitrate concentrations in water bodies slowly decrease. This causes that the mean and variance of the observed time series also changes with time (nonstationarity and heteroscedascity). In order to detect changes and properly describe the behaviour of such time series by time series analysis, linear models (such as autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)), are no more suitable. Time series with sudden changes in statistical characteristics can cause various problems in the calibration of traditional water quality models and thus give biased predictions. Proper statistical analysis of these non-stationary and heteroscedastic time series with the aim of detecting and subsequently explaining the variations in their statistical characteristics requires the use of nonlinear time series models. This information can be then used to improve the model building and calibration of conceptual water quality model or to select right calibration periods in order to produce reliable predictions. The objective of this contribution is to analyze two long time series of nitrate concentrations of the rivers Ouse and Stour with advanced nonlinear statistical modelling techniques and compare their performance with traditional linear models of the ARMA class in order to identify changes in the time series characteristics. The time series were analysed with nonlinear models with multiple regimes represented by self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and Markov-switching models (MSW). The analysis showed that, based on the value of residual sum of squares (RSS) in both datasets, SETAR and MSW models described the time-series better than models of the

  15. Random Network Models to Predict the Long-Term Impact of HPV Vaccination on Genital Warts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez-Domingo, Javier; Sánchez-Alonso, Víctor; Acedo, Luis; Villanueva-Oller, Javier

    2017-01-01

    The Human papillomaviruses (HPV) vaccine induces a herd immunity effect in genital warts when a large number of the population is vaccinated. This aspect should be taken into account when devising new vaccine strategies, like vaccination at older ages or male vaccination. Therefore, it is important to develop mathematical models with good predictive capacities. We devised a sexual contact network that was calibrated to simulate the Spanish epidemiology of different HPV genotypes. Through this model, we simulated the scenario that occurred in Australia in 2007, where 12–13 year-old girls were vaccinated with a three-dose schedule of a vaccine containing genotypes 6 and 11, which protect against genital warts, and also a catch-up program in women up to 26 years of age. Vaccine coverage were 73% in girls with three doses and with coverage rates decreasing with age until 52% for 20–26 year-olds. A fast 59% reduction in the genital warts diagnoses occurred in the model in the first years after the start of the program, similar to what was described in the literature. PMID:29035332

  16. Early hospital readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications predicts long-term mortality after pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Caitlin W; Tosoian, Jeffrey J; Craig-Schapiro, Rebecca; Valero, Vicente; Cameron, John L; Eckhauser, Frederic E; Hirose, Kenzo; Makary, Martin A; Pawlik, Timothy M; Ahuja, Nita; Weiss, Matthew J; Wolfgang, Christopher L

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of early (30-day) hospital readmission (EHR) on mortality after pancreatectomy. Using a prospectively collected institutional database linked with a statewide dataset, we evaluated the association between EHR and overall mortality in all patients undergoing pancreatectomy at our tertiary institution (2005 to 2010). Of 595 pancreatectomy patients, EHR occurred in 21.5%. Overall mortality was 29.4% (median follow-up 22.7 months). Patients with EHR had decreased survival compared with those who were not readmitted (P = .011). On multivariate analysis adjusting for baseline group differences, EHR for gastrointestinal-related complications was a significant independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 2.30, P = .001). In addition to known risk factors, 30-day readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications following pancreatectomy independently predicts increased mortality. Additional studies are necessary to identify surgical, medical, and social factors contributing to EHR, as well as interventions aimed at decreasing postpancreatectomy morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaebeom Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

  18. Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jaebeom; Lee, Kyoung-Chan; Lee, Young-Joo

    2018-05-09

    Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

  19. Long-term persistence of systemic and mucosal immune response to HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in preteen/adolescent girls and young women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petäjä, T; Pedersen, Court; Poder, A

    2011-01-01

    Vaccination against oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types is one key intervention for cervical cancer prevention. This follow-up study assessed the persistence of the systemic and mucosal immune responses together with the safety profile of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine administered...... of transudation or exudation of serum IgG antibodies through the cervical epithelium. The HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine had a clinically acceptable safety profile. In conclusion, this follow-up study shows that the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine administered to preteen/adolescents girls and young women...... induces long-term systemic and mucosal immune response and has a clinically acceptable safety profile up to four years after the first vaccine dose....

  20. Long-term persistence of systemic and mucosal immune response to HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in preteen/adolescent girls and young women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petäjä, T; Pedersen, C; Andersen, Anne Poder

    2010-01-01

    Vaccination against oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types is one key intervention for cervical cancer prevention. This follow-up study assessed the persistence of the systemic and mucosal immune responses together with the safety profile of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine administered...... of transudation or exudation of serum IgG antibodies through the cervical epithelium. The HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine had a clinically acceptable safety profile. In conclusion, this follow-up study shows that the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine administered to preteen/adolescents girls and young women...... induces long-term systemic and mucosal immune response and has a clinically acceptable safety profile up to four years after the first vaccine dose....

  1. Absenteeism screening questionnaire (ASQ): a new tool for predicting long-term absenteeism among workers with low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truchon, Manon; Schmouth, Marie-Ève; Côté, Denis; Fillion, Lise; Rossignol, Michel; Durand, Marie-José

    2012-03-01

    Over the last decades, psychosocial factors were identified by many studies as significant predictive variables in the development of disability related to common low back disorders, which thus contributed to the development of biopsychosocial prevention interventions. Biopsychosocial interventions were supposed to be more effective than usual interventions in improving different outcomes. Unfortunately, most of these interventions show inconclusive results. The use of screening questionnaires was proposed as a solution to improve their efficacy. The aim of this study was to validate a new screening questionnaire to identify workers at risk of being absent from work for more than 182 cumulative days and who are more susceptible to benefit from prevention interventions. Injured workers receiving income replacement benefits from the Quebec Compensation Board (n = 535) completed a 67-item questionnaire in the sub-acute stage of pain and provided information about work-related events 6 and 12 months later. Reliability and validity of the 67-item questionnaire were determined respectively by test-retest reliability and internal consistency analysis, as well as by construct validity analyses. The Cox regression model and the maximum likelihood method were used to fix a model allowing calculation of a probability of absence of more than 182 days. Criterion validity and discriminative capacity of this model were calculated. Sub-sections from the 67-item questionnaire were moderately to highly correlated 2 weeks later (r = 0.52-0.80) and showed moderate to good internal consistency (0.70-0.94). Among the 67-item questionnaire, six sub-sections and variables (22 items) were predictive of long-term absence from work: fear-avoidance beliefs related to work, return to work expectations, annual family income before-taxes, last level of education attained, work schedule and work concerns. The area under the ROC curve was 73%. The significant predictive variables of long-term

  2. Lean body mass predicts long-term survival in Chinese patients on peritoneal dialysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenq-Wen Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reduced lean body mass (LBM is one of the main indicators in malnutrition inflammation syndrome among patients on dialysis. However, the influence of LBM on peritoneal dialysis (PD patients' outcomes and the factors related to increasing LBM are seldom reported. METHODS: We enrolled 103 incident PD patients between 2002 and 2003, and followed them until December 2011. Clinical characteristics, PD-associated parameters, residual renal function, and serum chemistry profiles of each patient were collected at 1 month and 1 year after initiating PD. LBM was estimated using creatinine index corrected with body weight. Multiple linear regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and Cox regression proportional hazard analysis were used to define independent variables and compare survival between groups. RESULTS: Using the median LBM value (70% for men and 64% for women, patients were divided into group 1 (n = 52; low LBM and group 2 (n = 51; high LBM. Group 1 patients had higher rates of peritonitis (1.6 vs. 1.1/100 patient months; p<0.05 and hospitalization (14.6 vs. 9.7/100 patient months; p<0.05. Group 1 patients also had shorter overall survival and technique survival (p<0.01. Each percentage point increase in LBM reduced the hazard ratio for mortality by 8% after adjustment for diabetes, age, sex, and body mass index (BMI. Changes in residual renal function and protein catabolic rate were independently associated with changes in LBM in the first year of PD. CONCLUSIONS: LBM serves as a good parameter in addition to BMI to predict the survival of patients on PD. Preserving residual renal function and increasing protein intake can increase LBM.

  3. Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage  = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies. © 2012 The Authors. Child Development © 2012 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  4. High-sensitive CRP as a predictive marker of long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberdi-Saugstrup, Mikel; Zak, Marek; Nielsen, Susan

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate whether C-reactive protein (CRP), including variation within the normal range, is predictive of long-term disease outcome in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA). Consecutive patients with newly diagnosed JIA were included prospectively from defined geographic areas of the Nordic...... countries from 1997 to 2000. Inclusion criteria were availability of a baseline serum sample within 12 months after disease onset and 8-year clinical assessment data. Systemic onset JIA was not included. CRP was measured by high-sensitive ELISA (detection limit of 0.2 mg/l). One hundred and thirty...... participants with a median follow-up time of 97 months (range 95–100) were included. At follow-up, 38% of the patients were in remission off medication. Absence of remission was associated with elevated level of CRP at baseline (odds ratio (OR) 1.33, confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.63, p = 0.007). By applying...

  5. Modeling techniques for predicting long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Winkle, W.

    1977-01-01

    Appropriate modeling techniques already exist for investigating some long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems, even if to date these techniques have not been used for this purpose. At the low levels of irradiation estimated to occur in natural aquatic systems, effects are difficult to detect at even the individual level much less the population or ecosystem level where the subtle effects of radiation are likely to be completely overshadowed by the effects of other environmental factors and stresses and the natural variability of the system. The claim that population and ecosystem models can be accurate and reliable predictive tools in assessing any stress has been oversold. Nonetheless, the use of these tools can be useful for learning more about the effects of radioactive releases on aquatic populations and ecosystems

  6. Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

    2016-05-01

    Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Coral reef growth in an era of rapidly rising sea level: predictions and suggestions for long-term research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buddemeier, R W; Smith, S V

    1988-01-01

    Coral reef growth is intimately linked to sea level. It has been postulated that over the next century, sea level will rise at a probable average rate of 15 mm/year, in response to fossil fuel emissions, heating, and melting of the Antarctic ice cap. This predicted rate of sea level rise is five times the present modal rate of vertical accretion on coral reef flats and 50% greater than the maximum vertical accretion rates apparently attained by coral reefs. We use these predictions and observations to offer the following hypothesis for reef growth over the next century. The vertical accretion rates of protected reef flats will accelerate from the present modal rate up to the maximum rate, in response to the more rapidly rising sea level. This more rapid vertical accretion rate will be insufficient to keep up with sea level rise, if present predictions prove to be correct. Less protected reef flats will slow their rate of growth as they become inundated and subjected to erosion by progressively larger waves. This projected sea level rise and postulated reef response will provide an opportunity for long- term studies of the response of coral reef systems to a predictable and measurable forcing function.

  8. Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Månsson, K N T; Frick, A; Boraxbekk, C-J; Marquand, A F; Williams, S C R; Carlbring, P; Andersson, G; Furmark, T

    2015-03-17

    Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge. This study aimed at assessing neural predictors of long-term treatment outcome in participants with SAD 1 year after completion of Internet-delivered CBT (iCBT). Twenty-six participants diagnosed with SAD underwent iCBT including attention bias modification for a total of 13 weeks. Support vector machines (SVMs), a supervised pattern recognition method allowing predictions at the individual level, were trained to separate long-term treatment responders from nonresponders based on blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses to self-referential criticism. The Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale was the main instrument to determine treatment response at the 1-year follow-up. Results showed that the proportion of long-term responders was 52% (12/23). From multivariate BOLD responses in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) together with the amygdala, we were able to predict long-term response rate of iCBT with an accuracy of 92% (confidence interval 95% 73.2-97.6). This activation pattern was, however, not predictive of improvement in the continuous Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale-Self-report version. Follow-up psychophysiological interaction analyses revealed that lower dACC-amygdala coupling was associated with better long-term treatment response. Thus, BOLD response patterns in the fear-expressing dACC-amygdala regions were highly predictive of long-term treatment outcome of iCBT, and the initial coupling between these regions differentiated long-term responders from nonresponders. The SVM-neuroimaging approach could be of particular clinical value as it allows for accurate prediction of treatment outcome at the level of the individual.

  9. Biofiltration of volatile pollutants: Engineering mechanisms for improved design, long-term operation, prediction, and implementation. 1997 annual progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barton, J.W.; Davison, B.H.; Klasson, K.T.

    1997-01-01

    'Biofiltration systems can be used to treat volatile organic compounds (VOCs); however, the systems are poorly understood and are currently operated as black boxes. Common operational problems associated with biofilters include fouling, deactivation, and overgrowth, all of which make biofilters ineffective for continuous, long-term use. The objective of this investigation is to develop generic methods for long-term stable operation, in particular by using selective limitation of supplemental nutrients while maintaining high activity and the ability to regenerate biofilter activity. As part of this effort, the authors will provide a deeper fundamental understanding of the important biological and transport mechanisms in biodestruction of sparingly soluble VOCs and will extend this engineering approach and developed mathematical models to two additional systems of high-priority environmental management (EM) relevance-direct degradation and cometabolic degradation of priority pollutants such as BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene) and TCE (trichioroethylene), respectively. Preliminary results indicate that the author can control overgrowth of the biofilm while sustaining high degradation rates and develop basic predictive models that elucidate mass transfer and kinetic limitations in this system for alkanes. The alkanes are degraded into CO, and waterwith minimal biomass (due to the methodology proposed). This system will be used to test and model additional supplemental nutrient feeding strategies as well as methods to increase the fundamental driving forces by modification of the system. Models will be extended to non-steady-state, long-term operation. The author will examine the nature of the mixed microbial community in the VOC-degrading biofilm and test for new degradative activities. He will use cosolvents with surfactant properties to enhance hydrocarbon solubility in the biofilm and evaluate their impact on mass transfer and reaction rate in an

  10. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere of coastal areas of the Ross Sea, Antarctica: Indications for long-term downward trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozo, Karla; Martellini, Tania; Corsolini, Simonetta; Harner, Tom; Estellano, Victor; Kukučka, Petr; Mulder, Marie D; Lammel, Gerhard; Cincinelli, Alessandra

    2017-07-01

    Passive air samplers were used to evaluate long-term trends and spatial distribution of trace organic compounds in Antarctica. Duplicate PUF disk samplers were deployed at six automatic weather stations in the coastal area of the Ross sea (East Antarctica), between December 2010 and January 2011, during the XXVI Italian Scientific Research Expedition. Among the investigated persistent organic compounds, Hexachlorobenzene was the most abundant, with air concentrations ranging from 0.8 to 50 pg m -3 . In general, the following decreasing concentration order was found for the air samples analyzed: HCB > PeCB > PCBs > DDTs > HCHs. While HCB concentrations were in the same range as those reported in the atmosphere of other Antarctic sampling areas and did not show a decline, HCHs and DDTs levels were lower or similar to those determined one or two decades ago. In general, the very low concentrations reflected the pristine state of the East Antarctica air. Backward trajectories indicated the prevalence of air masses coming from the Antarctic continent. Local contamination and volatilization from ice were suggested as potential sources for the presence of persistent organic pollutants in the atmosphere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. ADRA2B deletion variant selectively predicts stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory in females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoladz, Phillip R; Kalchik, Andrea E; Hoffman, Mackenzie M; Aufdenkampe, Rachael L; Lyle, Sarah M; Peters, David M; Brown, Callie M; Cadle, Chelsea E; Scharf, Amanda R; Dailey, Alison M; Wolters, Nicholas E; Talbot, Jeffery N; Rorabaugh, Boyd R

    2014-10-01

    Clarifying the mechanisms that underlie stress-induced alterations of learning and memory may lend important insight into susceptibility factors governing the development of stress-related psychological disorders, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous work has shown that carriers of the ADRA2B Glu(301)-Glu(303) deletion variant exhibit enhanced emotional memory, greater amygdala responses to emotional stimuli and greater intrusiveness of traumatic memories. We speculated that carriers of this deletion variant might also be more vulnerable to stress-induced enhancements of long-term memory, which would implicate the variant as a possible susceptibility factor for traumatic memory formation. One hundred and twenty participants (72 males, 48 females) submerged their hand in ice cold (stress) or warm (no stress) water for 3min. Immediately afterwards, they studied a list of 42 words varying in emotional valence and arousal and then completed an immediate free recall test. Twenty-four hours later, participants' memory for the word list was examined via free recall and recognition assessments. Stressed participants exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor had enhanced recall on the 24-h assessment. Importantly, this enhancement was independent of the emotional nature of the learned information. In contrast to previous work, we did not observe a general enhancement of memory for emotional information in ADRA2B deletion carriers. However, stressed female ADRA2B deletion carriers, particularly those exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor, did demonstrate greater recognition memory than all other groups. Collectively, these findings implicate autonomic mechanisms in the pre-learning stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory and suggest that the ADRA2B deletion variant may selectively predict stress effects on memory in females. Such findings lend important insight into the physiological mechanisms underlying stress

  12. Does early change predict long-term (6 months) improvements in subjects who receive manual therapy for low back pain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Chad; Petersen, Shannon; Donaldson, Megan; Wilhelm, Mark; Learman, Ken

    2017-09-01

    Early change is commonly assessed for manual therapy interventions and has been used to determine treatment appropriateness. However, current studies have only explored the relationship of between or within-session changes and short-/medium-term outcomes. The goal of this study was to determine whether pain changes after two weeks of pragmatic manual therapy could predict those participants with chronic low back pain who demonstrate continued improvements at 6-month follow-up. This study was a retrospective observational design. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed using a 33% and a 50% pain change to predict improvement. Those who experienced a ≥33% pain reduction by 2 weeks had 6.98 (95% CI = 1.29, 37.53) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the GRoC and 4.74 (95% CI = 1.31, 17.17) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the ODI (at 6 months). Subjects who reported a ≥50% pain reduction at 2 weeks had 5.98 (95% CI = 1.56, 22.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the GRoC and 3.99 (95% CI = 1.23, 12.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the ODI (at 6 months). Future studies may investigate whether a change in plan of care is beneficial for patients who are not showing early improvement predictive of a good long-term outcome.

  13. Persistence of attenuated HIV-1 rev alleles in an epidemiologically linked cohort of long-term survivors infected with nef-deleted virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wesselingh Steven L

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Sydney blood bank cohort (SBBC of long-term survivors consists of multiple individuals infected with nef-deleted, attenuated strains of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1. Although the cohort members have experienced differing clinical courses and now comprise slow progressors (SP as well as long-term nonprogressors (LTNP, longitudinal analysis of nef/long-terminal repeat (LTR sequences demonstrated convergent nef/LTR sequence evolution in SBBC SP and LTNP. Thus, the in vivo pathogenicity of attenuated HIV-1 strains harboured by SBBC members is dictated by factors other than nef/LTR. Therefore, to determine whether defects in other viral genes contribute to attenuation of these HIV-1 strains, we characterized dominant HIV-1 rev alleles that persisted in 4 SBBC subjects; C18, C64, C98 and D36. Results The ability of Rev derived from D36 and C64 to bind the Rev responsive element (RRE in RNA binding assays was reduced by approximately 90% compared to Rev derived from HIV-1NL4-3, C18 or C98. D36 Rev also had a 50–60% reduction in ability to express Rev-dependent reporter constructs in mammalian cells. In contrast, C64 Rev had only marginally decreased Rev function despite attenuated RRE binding. In D36 and C64, attenuated RRE binding was associated with rare amino acid changes at 3 highly conserved residues; Gln to Pro at position 74 immediately N-terminal to the Rev activation domain, and Val to Leu and Ser to Pro at positions 104 and 106 at the Rev C-terminus, respectively. In D36, reduced Rev function was mapped to an unusual 13 amino acid extension at the Rev C-terminus. Conclusion These findings provide new genetic and mechanistic insights important for Rev function, and suggest that Rev function, not Rev/RRE binding may be rate limiting for HIV-1 replication. In addition, attenuated rev alleles may contribute to viral attenuation and long-term survival of HIV-1 infection in a subset of SBBC members.

  14. Patterns of persistence with pharmacological treatment among patients with current depressive episode and their impact on long-term outcome: a naturalistic study with 5-year follow-up

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li K

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Kanglai Li,1,* Jiong Tao,2,* Yuemei Li,3 Minhua Chen,2 Xiuhua Wu,2 Yingtao Liao,2 Xiaolan Lin,4 Zhaoyu Gan2 1Department of Very Important Patient, the 3rd Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Psychiatry, the 3rd Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Obstetrics, Wuzhou Gongren Hospital, Wuzhou, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Infectious Diseases, the 3rd Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: The aim of the study was to describe and compare the patterns of medication persistence among patients with unipolar depression (UD or bipolar depression in a 5-year follow-up, and explore their impact on long-term outcome. Patients and methods: A total of 333 eligible patients with current major depressive episode were observed and followed up from the first index prescription for 5 years. Lack of persistence or treatment interruption was defined as a gap of at least 2 consecutive months without taking any medication. Time to lack of persistence in the first (TLP1 and the second (TLP2 episode of treatment, number of visits before the first treatment interruption (NV and number of treatment interruptions (NTI were measured. Results: During the 5-year follow-up, nearly 50% of patients experienced at least two times of treatment interruption. Pattern of medication persistence did not significantly differ between UD and bipolar disorder (BD patients. TLP1 was positively associated with TLP2. Shorter TLP1 predicted a higher possibility of subsequent visits because of recurrence or relapse and more NTI meant a lower likelihood of achieving full remission in the fifth year for both UD and BD patients. For UD patients, shorter TLP1 or less NV predicted a lower chance of achieving remission, while for BD patients

  15. Beyond Initial Encoding: Measures of the Post-Encoding Status of Memory Traces Predict Long-Term Recall during Infancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathman, Thanujeni; Bauer, Patricia J.

    2013-01-01

    The first years of life are witness to rapid changes in long-term recall ability. In the current research we contributed to an explanation of the changes by testing the absolute and relative contributions to long-term recall of encoding and post-encoding processes. Using elicited imitation, we sampled the status of 16-, 20-, and 24-month-old…

  16. Long-term prediction of chaotic time series with multi-step prediction horizons by a neural network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirzaee, Hossein

    2009-01-01

    The Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is applied for training a multilayer perception with three hidden layer each with ten neurons in order to carefully map the structure of chaotic time series such as Mackey-Glass time series. First the MLP network is trained with 1000 data, and then it is tested with next 500 data. After that the trained and tested network is applied for long-term prediction of next 120 data which come after test data. The prediction is such a way that, the first inputs to network for prediction are the four last data of test data, then the predicted value is shifted to the regression vector which is the input to the network, then after first four-step of prediction, the input regression vector to network is fully predicted values and in continue, each predicted data is shifted to input vector for subsequent prediction.

  17. Environmental factors predict the severity of delirium symptoms in long-term care residents with and without delirium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Jane; Cole, Martin G; Voyer, Philippe; Vu, Minh; Ciampi, Antonio; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Belzile, Eric; Dyachenko, Alina

    2013-04-01

    To identify potentially modifiable environmental factors (including number of medications) associated with changes over time in the severity of delirium symptoms and to explore the interactions between these factors and resident baseline vulnerability. Prospective, observational cohort study. Seven long-term care (LTC) facilities. Two hundred seventy-two LTC residents aged 65 and older with and without delirium. Weekly assessments (for up to 6 months) of the severity of delirium symptoms using the Delirium Index (DI), environmental risk factors, and number of medications. Baseline vulnerability measures included a diagnosis of dementia and a delirium risk score. Associations between environmental factors, medications, and weekly changes in DI were analyzed using a general linear model with correlated errors. Six potentially modifiable environmental factors predicted weekly changes in DI (absence of reading glasses, aids to orientation, family member, and glass of water and presence of bed rails and other restraints) as did the prescription of two or more new medications. Residents with dementia appeared to be more sensitive to the effects of these factors. Six environmental factors and prescription of two or more new medications predicted changes in the severity of delirium symptoms. These risk factors are potentially modifiable through improved LTC clinical practices. © 2013, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2013, The American Geriatrics Society.

  18. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Hway Wong

    Full Text Available Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients.Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011-2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS, co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings.Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001, compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.58, p = 0.005, independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not show this pattern

  19. Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

    2018-05-01

    The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The predictive value of mental health for long-term sickness absence: the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5) compared.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsen, Sannie Vester; Rugulies, Reiner; Hjarsbech, Pernille U; Bjorner, Jakob Bue

    2013-09-17

    Questionnaires are valuable for population surveys of mental health. Different survey instruments may however give different results. The present study compares two mental health instruments, the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5), in regard to their prediction of long-term sickness absence. Questionnaire data was collected from N = 4153 Danish employees. The questionnaire included the MDI and the MHI-5. The information of long-term sickness absence was obtained from a register. We used Cox regression to calculate covariance adjusted hazard ratios for long-term sickness absence for both measures. Both the MDI and the MHI-5 had a highly significant prediction of long-term sickness absence. A one standard deviation change in score was associated with an increased risk of long-term sickness absence of 27% for the MDI and 37% for the MHI-5. When both measures were included in the same analysis, the MHI-5 performed best. In general population surveys, the MHI-5 is a better predictor of long-term sickness absence than the MDI.

  1. True Grit: Trait-level Perseverance and Passion for Long-term Goals Predicts Effectiveness and Retention among Novice Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson-Kraft, Claire; Duckworth, Angela Lee

    2014-01-01

    Surprisingly little progress has been made in linking teacher effectiveness and retention to factors observable at the time of hire. The rigors of teaching, particularly in low-income school districts, suggest the importance of personal qualities that have so far been difficult to measure objectively. In this study, we examine the predictive validity of personal qualities not typically collected by school districts during the hiring process. Specifically, we use a psychological framework to explore how biographical data on grit, a disposition toward perseverance and passion for long-term goals, explains variance in novice teachers' effectiveness and retention. In two prospective, longitudinal samples of novice teachers assigned to schools in low-income districts (N = 154 and N = 307, respectively), raters blind to outcomes followed a 7-point rubric to rate grit from information on college activities and work experience extracted from teachers' résumés. We used independent-samples t-tests and binary logistic regression models to predict teacher effectiveness and retention from these grit ratings as well as from other information (e.g., SAT scores, college GPA, interview ratings of leadership potential) available at the time of hire. Grittier teachers outperformed their less gritty colleagues and were less likely to leave their classrooms mid-year. Notably, no other variables in our analysis predicted either effectiveness or retention. These findings contribute to a better understanding of what leads some novice teachers to outperform others and remain committed to the profession. In addition to informing policy decisions surrounding teacher recruitment and development, this investigation highlights the potential of a psychological framework to explain why some individuals are more successful than others in meeting the rigorous demands of teaching.

  2. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive–compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Neill J

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Joseph O'Neill,1 Jamie D Feusner,2 1Division of Child Psychiatry, 2Division of Adult Psychiatry, UCLA Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, Los Angeles, CA, USA Abstract: This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD: improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT. Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access – prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. Keywords: follow-up, access to treatment, relapse, resting-state fMRI, magnetic resonance spectroscopy

  3. Masculine norms, disclosure, and childhood adversities predict long-term mental distress among men with histories of child sexual abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Scott D

    2014-02-01

    Child sexual abuse (CSA) can have a profound effect on the long-term mental health of boys/men. However, not all men with histories of CSA experience psychopathology. To improve prevention and intervention services, more research is needed to understand why some male survivors experience mental health problems and others do not. The purpose of this study was to examine factors related to mental distress among a large, non-clinical sample of men with histories of CSA (N=487). Using a cross-sectional design with purposive sampling from three national survivor organizations, data were collected through an anonymous Internet-based survey. Multivariate analyses found that only one of the four CSA severity variables-use of physical force by the abuser-was related to mental distress. Additional factors that were related to mental distress included the number of other childhood adversities, years until disclosure, overall response to disclosure, and conformity to masculine norms. Overall, the final model predicted 36% of the variance in the number of mental health symptoms. Mental health practitioners should include masculine norms, disclosure history, and childhood adversities in assessments and intervention planning with male survivors. To more fully explicate risk factors for psychopathology in this population, future studies with probability samples of men that focus on mediational processes and use longitudinal designs are needed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Latent profiles of non-residential father engagement six years after divorce predict long term offspring outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene

    2014-01-01

    This study examined profiles of non-residential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) six to eight years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, nine years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of non-residential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed nine years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes nine years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother’s remarriage, mother’s income, and gender, age and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems nine years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long-term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed. PMID:24484456

  5. The Biomarker GlycA Is Associated with Chronic Inflammation and Predicts Long-Term Risk of Severe Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Scott C; Würtz, Peter; Nath, Artika P; Abraham, Gad; Havulinna, Aki S; Fearnley, Liam G; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Kangas, Antti J; Soininen, Pasi; Aalto, Kristiina; Seppälä, Ilkka; Raitoharju, Emma; Salmi, Marko; Maksimow, Mikael; Männistö, Satu; Kähönen, Mika; Juonala, Markus; Ripatti, Samuli; Lehtimäki, Terho; Jalkanen, Sirpa; Perola, Markus; Raitakari, Olli; Salomaa, Veikko; Ala-Korpela, Mika; Kettunen, Johannes; Inouye, Michael

    2015-10-28

    The biomarker glycoprotein acetylation (GlycA) has been shown to predict risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Here, we characterize biological processes associated with GlycA by leveraging population-based omics data and health records from >10,000 individuals. Our analyses show that GlycA levels are chronic within individuals for up to a decade. In apparently healthy individuals, elevated GlycA corresponded to elevation of myriad inflammatory cytokines, as well as a gene coexpression network indicative of increased neutrophil activity, suggesting that individuals with high GlycA may be in a state of chronic inflammatory response. Accordingly, analysis of infection-related hospitalization and death records showed that increased GlycA increased long-term risk of severe non-localized and respiratory infections, particularly septicaemia and pneumonia. In total, our work demonstrates that GlycA is a biomarker for chronic inflammation, neutrophil activity, and risk of future severe infection. It also illustrates the utility of leveraging multi-layered omics data and health records to elucidate the molecular and cellular processes associated with biomarkers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Predicting short-term mortality and long-term survival for hospitalized US patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuthbert, Jennifer A; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W; Shah, Jessica P

    2014-07-01

    No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a US population. We reviewed electronic records for patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD) admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1,761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the previous DF threshold of >32. Admission and theoretical peak scores were calculated by use of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD). Analysis models compared five different scoring systems. INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r (2) = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of the data showed that survival for 28 days was significantly associated with a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status, and creatinine (p short-term mortality (p 50 % mortality at four weeks and >80 % mortality at six months without specific treatment.

  7. Beyond initial encoding: Measures of the post-encoding status of memory traces predict long-term recall in infancy

    OpenAIRE

    Pathman, Thanujeni; Bauer, Patricia J.

    2012-01-01

    The first years of life are witness to rapid changes in long-term recall ability. In the present research, we contributed to explanation of the changes by testing the absolute and relative contributions to long-term recall of encoding and post-encoding processes. Using elicited imitation, we sampled the status of 16-, 20-, and 24-month-old infants’ memory representations at various time points after experience of events. In Experiment 1, infants were tested immediately, 1 week after encoding,...

  8. Degradation of Alloy 800 steam generator tubing and its long-term behaviour predictions for plant life management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Y.C.; Tapping, R.L.; Pandey, M.D.

    2009-01-01

    results imply that Alloy 800 SG tubing may experience measurable aging after many years of service. Although these preliminary results require further confirmation, special attention should be paid to manage the SG tubing degradation in a proactive and predictable manner. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Dominion Engineering, Inc. (DEI) have developed probabilistic approaches using a degradation free lifetime Weibull distribution based on the OPEX of Alloy 600 SG tubing and a concept of materials improvement factors (MIFs) to 'predict' the long-term service behaviour of other SG tubing. In this paper, a new concept, 'corrosion stress cycle analysis' (CSCA) based on the concept of 'Fatigue Usage Factor' used in mechanical design, is proposed here as a guide for predictive and proactive SG life management. The CSCA approach assumes that an alloy can tolerate a certain number of corrosion stress cycles, i.e., excursions due to off-specification (assuming that the specifications are appropriate) chemistry conditions and SG transients etc. Using the in-service experience, the number of stress cycles that occurred in the history of a SG and in the future can be estimated and the Alloy 800 SG tubing long-term degradation can then be predicted. (author)

  9. Do improvements after inpatient dialectial behavioral therapy persist in the long term? A naturalistic follow-up in patients with borderline personality disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleindienst, Nikolaus; Limberger, Matthias F; Schmahl, Christian; Steil, Regina; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich W; Bohus, Martin

    2008-11-01

    Three months of inpatient dialectical behavior therapy proved to be highly effective in patients with borderline personality disorder. This study investigates whether the effects of DBT persist after the patients returned to their usual lives. Thirty-one patients with a diagnosis of borderline personality disorder (DSM-IV) were prospectively followed-up for an observation period of 21 months after discharge from the DBT program, under naturalistic conditions.Improvements as observed after discharge persisted over the full follow-up period. This is reflected in a steady rate of remitted patients and in a broad range of psychopathology showing statistically and clinically significant effect-sizes ranging from 0.70 to 1.71. Analyses of courses over time revealed a high intraindividual concordance, indicating that short term treatment response predicted remission after 2 years follow-up. The effects of inpatient dialectical behavior therapy seem to persist after patients returned to their usual lives.

  10. Singlet oxygen explicit dosimetry to predict long-term local tumor control for BPD-mediated photodynamic therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Michele M.; Penjweini, Rozhin; Ong, Yi Hong; Zhu, Timothy C.

    2017-02-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a well-established treatment modality for cancer and other malignant diseases; however, quantities such as light fluence, photosensitizer photobleaching rate, and PDT dose do not fully account for all of the dynamic interactions between the key components involved. In particular, fluence rate (Φ) effects are not accounted for, which has a large effect on the oxygen consumption rate. In this preclinical study, reacted singlet oxygen [1O2]rx was investigated as a dosimetric quantity for PDT outcome. The ability of [1O2]rx to predict the long-term local tumor control rate (LCR) for BPD-mediated PDT was examined. Mice bearing radioactivelyinduced fibrosarcoma (RIF) tumors were treated with different in-air fluences (250, 300, and 350 J/cm2) and in-air ϕ (75, 100, and150 mW/cm2) with a BPD dose of 1 mg/kg and a drug-light interval of 3 hours. Treatment was delivered with a collimated laser beam of 1 cm diameter at 690 nm. Explicit dosimetry of initial tissue oxygen concentration, tissue optical properties, and BPD concentration was used to calculate [1O2]rx. Φ was calculated for the treatment volume based on Monte-Carlo simulations and measured tissue optical properties. Kaplan-Meier analyses for LCR were done for an endpoint of tumor volume defined as the product of the timeintegral of photosensitizer concentration and Φ at a 3 mm tumor depth. Preliminary studies show that [1O2]rx better correlates with LCR and is an effective dosimetric quantity that can predict treatment outcome.

  11. Singlet oxygen explicit dosimetry to predict long-term local tumor control for Photofrin-mediated photodynamic therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penjweini, Rozhin; Kim, Michele M.; Ong, Yi Hong; Zhu, Timothy C.

    2017-02-01

    Although photodynamic therapy (PDT) is an established modality for the treatment of cancer, current dosimetric quantities do not account for the variations in PDT oxygen consumption for different fluence rates (φ). In this study we examine the efficacy of reacted singlet oxygen concentration ([1O2]rx) to predict long-term local control rate (LCR) for Photofrin-mediated PDT. Radiation-induced fibrosarcoma (RIF) tumors in the right shoulders of female C3H mice are treated with different in-air fluences of 225-540 J/cm2 and in-air fluence rate (φair) of 50 and 75 mW/cm2 at 5 mg/kg Photofrin and a drug-light interval of 24 hours using a 1 cm diameter collimated laser beam at 630 nm wavelength. [1O2]rx is calculated by using a macroscopic model based on explicit dosimetry of Photofrin concentration, tissue optical properties, tissue oxygenation and blood flow changes during PDT. The tumor volume of each mouse is tracked for 90 days after PDT and Kaplan-Meier analyses for LCR are performed based on a tumor volume defined as a temporal integral of photosensitizer concentration and Φ at a 3 mm tumor depth. φ is calculated throughout the treatment volume based on Monte-Carlo simulation and measured tissue optical properties. Our preliminary studies show that [1O2]rx is the best dosimetric quantity that can predict tumor response and correlate with LCR. Moreover, [1O2]rx calculated using the blood flow changes was in agreement with [1O2]rx calculated based on the actual tissue oxygenation.

  12. [Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Haixia; Tang, Yangjiang; Wang, Lan; Shi, Chaoli; Feng, Yulin; Yi, Qun

    2016-01-26

    To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), Prisk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower

  13. Pre- and Posttransplant IgA Anti-Fab Antibodies to Predict Long-term Kidney Graft Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirzargar, M A; Amirzargar, A; Basiri, A; Hajilooi, M; Roshanaei, G; Rajabi, G; Solgi, G

    2015-05-01

    Immunologic factors are reliable markers for allograft monitoring, because of their seminal role in rejection process. One of these factors is the immunoglobulin (Ig)A anti-Fab of the IgG antibody. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of pre- and posttransplant levels of this marker for kidney allograft function and survival. Sera samples of 59 living unrelated donor kidney recipients were collected before and after transplantation (days 7, 14, and 30) and investigated for IgA anti-Fab of IgG antibody levels using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in relation with allograft outcome. Among 59 patients, 15 cases (25%) including 10 with acute rejection and 5 with chronic rejection episodes showed graft failure during a mean of 5 years of follow-up. High posttransplant levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies were observed more frequently in patients with stable graft function (SGF) compared with patients with graft failure (P = 2 × 10(-6)). None of patients with acute or chronic rejection episodes had high levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies at day 30 posttransplant compared with the SGF group (P = 10(-6) and P = .01, respectively). In addition, high levels of IgA anti-Fab antibody correlated with lesser concentration of serum creatinine at 1 month posttransplantation (P = .01). Five-year graft survival was associated with high levels of pre- and posttransplant IgA anti-Fab antibodies (P = .02 and P = .003, respectively). Our findings indicate the protective effect of higher levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies regarding to kidney allograft outcomes and long-term graft survival. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Dynamic imaging response following radiation therapy predicts long-term outcomes for diffuse low-grade gliomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallud, Johan; Llitjos, Jean-François; Dhermain, Frédéric; Varlet, Pascale; Dezamis, Edouard; Devaux, Bertrand; Souillard-Scémama, Raphaëlle; Sanai, Nader; Koziak, Maria; Page, Philippe; Schlienger, Michel; Daumas-Duport, Catherine; Meder, Jean-François; Oppenheim, Catherine; Roux, François-Xavier

    2012-04-01

    Quantitative imaging assessment of radiation therapy (RT) for diffuse low-grade gliomas (DLGG) by measuring the velocity of diametric expansion (VDE) over time has never been studied. We assessed the VDE changes following RT and determined whether this parameter can serve as a prognostic factor. We reviewed a consecutive series of 33 adults with supratentorial DLGG treated with first-line RT with available imaging follow-up (median follow-up, 103 months). Before RT, all patients presented with a spontaneous tumor volume increase (positive VDE, mean 5.9 mm/year). After RT, all patients demonstrated a tumor volume decrease (negative VDE, mean, -16.7 mm/year) during a mean 49-month duration. In univariate analysis, initial tumor volume (>100 cm(3)), lack of IDH1 expression, p53 expression, high proliferation index, and fast post-RT tumor volume decrease (VDE at -10 mm/year or faster, fast responders) were associated with a significantly shorter overall survival (OS). The median OS was significantly longer (120.8 months) for slow responders (post-RT VDE slower than -10.0 mm/year) than for fast responders (47.9 months). In multivariate analysis, fast responders, larger initial tumor volume, lack of IDH1 expression, and p53 expression were independent poor prognostic factors for OS. A high proliferation index was significantly more frequent in the fast responder subgroup than in the slow responder subgroup. We conclude that the pattern of post-RT VDE changes is an independent prognostic factor for DLGG and offers a quantitative parameter to predict long-term outcomes. We propose to monitor individually the post-RT VDE changes using MRI follow-up, with particular attention to fast responders.

  15. Mixing-controlled uncertainty in long-term predictions of acid rock drainage from heterogeneous waste-rock piles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedretti, D.; Beckie, R. D.; Mayer, K. U.

    2015-12-01

    The chemistry of drainage from waste-rock piles at mine sites is difficult to predict because of a number of uncertainties including heterogeneous reactive mineral content, distribution of minerals, weathering rates and physical flow properties. In this presentation, we examine the effects of mixing on drainage chemistry over timescales of 100s of years. We use a 1-D streamtube conceptualization of flow in waste rocks and multicomponent reactive transport modeling. We simplify the reactive system to consist of acid-producing sulfide minerals and acid-neutralizing carbonate minerals and secondary sulfate and iron oxide minerals. We create multiple realizations of waste-rock piles with distinct distributions of reactive minerals along each flow path and examine the uncertainty of drainage geochemistry through time. The limited mixing of streamtubes that is characteristic of the vertical unsaturated flow in many waste-rock piles, allows individual flowpaths to sustain acid or neutral conditions to the base of the pile, where the streamtubes mix. Consequently, mixing and the acidity/alkalinity balance of the streamtube waters, and not the overall acid- and base-producing mineral contents, control the instantaneous discharge chemistry. Our results show that the limited mixing implied by preferential flow and the heterogeneous distribution of mineral contents lead to large uncertainty in drainage chemistry over short and medium time scales. However, over longer timescales when one of either the acid-producing or neutralizing primary phases is depleted, the drainage chemistry becomes less controlled by mixing and in turn less uncertain. A correct understanding of the temporal variability of uncertainty is key to make informed long-term decisions in mining settings regarding the management of waste material.

  16. Predicting the impact of long-term temperature changes on the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis: a mechanistic model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara D Mangal

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Many parasites of medical and veterinary importance are transmitted by cold-blooded intermediate hosts or vectors, the abundance of which will vary with ambient temperatures, potentially altering disease prevalence. In particular, if global climate change will increase mean ambient temperature in a region endemic with a human pathogen then it is possible that the incidence of disease will similarly increase. Here we examine this possibility by using a mathematical model to explore the effects of increasing long-term mean ambient temperature on the prevalence and abundance of the parasite Schistosoma mansoni, the causative agent of schistosomiasis in humans.The model showed that the impact of temperature on disease prevalence and abundance is not straightforward; the mean infection burden in humans increases up to 30 degrees C, but then crashes at 35 degrees C, primarily due to increased mortalities of the snail intermediate host. In addition, increased temperatures changed the dynamics of disease from stable, endemic infection to unstable, epidemic cycles at 35 degrees C. However, the prevalence of infection was largely unchanged by increasing temperatures. Temperature increases also affected the response of the model to changes in each parameter, indicating certain control strategies may become less effective with local temperature changes. At lower temperatures, the most effective single control strategy is to target the adult parasites through chemotherapy. However, as temperatures increase, targeting the snail intermediate hosts, for example through molluscicide use, becomes more effective.These results show that S. mansoni will not respond to increased temperatures in a linear fashion, and the optimal control strategy is likely to change as temperatures change. It is only through a mechanistic approach, incorporating the combined effects of temperature on all stages of the life-cycle, that we can begin to predict the consequences of climate

  17. Functional interpretation of metabolomics data as a new method for predicting long-term side effects: treatment of atopic dermatitis in infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seul Ji; Woo, Sung-il; Ahn, Soo Hyun; Lim, Dong Kyu; Hong, Ji Yeon; Park, Jeong Hill; Lim, Johan; Kim, Mi-kyeong; Kwon, Sung Won

    2014-12-10

    Topical steroids are used for the treatment of primary atopic dermatitis (AD); however, their associated risk of serious complications is great due to the presence of vulnerable lesions in young children with AD. Topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCIs) are steroid-free, anti-inflammatory agents used for topical AD therapy. However, their use is prohibited in infants side effects. The 1% pimecrolimus cream displayed similar efficacy and exceptional safety compared with the 0.05% desonide cream. Metabolomics-based long-term toxicity tests effectively predicted long-term side effects using short-term clinical models. This applicable method for the functional interpretation of metabolomics data sets the foundation for future studies involving the prediction of the toxicity and systemic reactions caused by long-term medication administration.

  18. Predicting long-term average concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants using GIS-based information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochadel, Matthias; Heinrich, Joachim; Gehring, Ulrike; Morgenstern, Verena; Kuhlbusch, Thomas; Link, Elke; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Krämer, Ursula

    Global regression models were developed to estimate individual levels of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollutants. The models are based on data of a one-year measurement programme including geographic data on traffic and population densities. This investigation is part of a cohort study on the impact of traffic-related air pollution on respiratory health, conducted at the westerly end of the Ruhr-area in North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany. Concentrations of NO 2, fine particle mass (PM 2.5) and filter absorbance of PM 2.5 as a marker for soot were measured at 40 sites spread throughout the study region. Fourteen-day samples were taken between March 2002 and March 2003 for each season and site. Annual average concentrations for the sites were determined after adjustment for temporal variation. Information on traffic counts in major roads, building densities and community population figures were collected in a geographical information system (GIS). This information was used to calculate different potential traffic-based predictors: (a) daily traffic flow and maximum traffic intensity of buffers with radii from 50 to 10 000 m and (b) distances to main roads and highways. NO 2 concentration and PM 2.5 absorbance were strongly correlated with the traffic-based variables. Linear regression prediction models, which involved predictors with radii of 50 to 1000 m, were developed for the Wesel region where most of the cohort members lived. They reached a model fit ( R2) of 0.81 and 0.65 for NO 2 and PM 2.5 absorbance, respectively. Regression models for the whole area required larger spatial scales and reached R2=0.90 and 0.82. Comparison of predicted values with NO 2 measurements at independent public monitoring stations showed a satisfactory association ( r=0.66). PM 2.5 concentration, however, was only slightly correlated and thus poorly predictable by traffic-based variables ( rGIS-based regression models offer a promising approach to assess individual levels of

  19. Long-term persistence of immunity and B-cell memory following Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination in early childhood and response to booster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrett, K P; John, T M; Jin, C; Kibwana, E; Yu, L-M; Curtis, N; Pollard, A J

    2014-04-01

    Protection against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), a rapidly invading encapsulated bacteria, is dependent on maintenance of an adequate level of serum antibody through early childhood. In many countries, Hib vaccine booster doses have been implemented after infant immunization to sustain immunity. We investigated the long-term persistence of antibody and immunological memory in primary-school children following infant (with or without booster) Hib vaccination. Anti-polyribosylribitol phosphate (PRP) immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentration and the frequency of circulating Hib-specific memory B cells were measured before a booster of a Hib-serogroup C meningococcal (MenC) conjugate vaccine and again 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year after the booster in 250 healthy children aged 6-12 years in an open-label phase 4 clinical study. Six to 12 years following infant priming with 3 doses of Hib conjugate vaccine, anti-PRP IgG geometric mean concentrations were 3.11 µg/mL and 0.71 µg/mL and proportions with anti-PRP IgG ≥1.0 µg/mL were 79% and 43% in children who had or had not, respectively, received a fourth Hib conjugate vaccine dose (mean age, 3.9 years). Higher baseline and post-Hib-MenC booster responses (anti-PRP IgG and memory B cells) were found in younger children and in those who had received a fourth Hib dose. Sustained Hib conjugate vaccine-induced immunity in children is dependent on time since infant priming and receipt of a booster. Understanding the relationship between humoral and cellular immunity following immunization with conjugate vaccines may direct vaccine design and boosting strategies to sustain individual and population immunity against encapsulated bacteria in early childhood. Clinical Trials Registration ISRCTN728588998.

  20. Persistent organic Pollutants (POPs) in the Greenland environment - Long-term temporal changes and effects on eggs of a bird of prey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Peter Borgen; Vorkamp, Katrin; Thomsen, Marianne

    The project studied the long-term time trend of brominated flame retardants, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides in peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) eggs. Furthermore, possible effects of the contamination on the eggshell thickness were investigated using multivariate...

  1. Long-term outcome in rheumatoid arthritis: a simple algorithm of baseline parameters can predict radiographic damage, disability, and disease course at 12-year followup

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drossaers-Bakker, K. W.; Zwinderman, A. H.; Vliet Vlieland, T. P. M.; van Zeben, D.; Vos, K.; Breedveld, F. C.; Hazes, J. M. W.

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To predict the long-term outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with respect to radiographic damage, disability, and disease course using baseline variables, and to construct decision trees identifying patients on an individual level at the extremes of the outcome spectrum of these 3

  2. The predictive value of current haemoglobin levels for incident tuberculosis and/or mortality during long-term antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhoff, Andrew D.; Wood, Robin; Cobelens, Frank G.; Gupta-Wright, Ankur; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Lawn, Stephen D.

    2015-01-01

    Low haemoglobin concentrations may be predictive of incident tuberculosis (TB) and death in HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), but data are limited and inconsistent. We examined these relationships retrospectively in a long-term South African ART cohort with multiple

  3. Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mansson, K.N.T.; Frick, A.; Boraxbekk, C.J.; Marquand, A.F.; Williams, S.C.; Carlbring, P.; Andersson, G.; Furmark, T.

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge.

  4. Predicting long-term mortality after Fontan procedures: A risk score based on 6707 patients from 28 studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alsaied, Tarek; Bokma, Jouke P.; Engel, Mark E.; Kuijpers, Joey M.; Hanke, Samuel P.; Zuhlke, Liesl; Zhang, Bin; Veldtman, Gruschen R.

    2017-01-01

    Reported long-term outcome measures vary greatly between studies in Fontan patients making comprehensive appraisal of mortality hazard challenging. We sought to create a clinical risk score to assist monitoring of Fontan patients in the outpatient setting. A systematic review was conducted to

  5. Application of supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) to predict bioremediation efficacy of long-term composting of PAH-contaminated soil

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cajthaml, Tomáš; Šašek, Václav

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 39, č. 21 (2005), s. 8448-8452 ISSN 0013-936X R&D Projects: GA ČR GP206/03/P078 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Keywords : SFE * long-term composting * PAH Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 4.054, year: 2005

  6. Can We "Predict" Long-Term Outcome for Ambulatory Transcutaneous Electrical Nerve Stimulation in Patients with Chronic Pain?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koke, A.J.; Smeets, R.J.E.M.; Perez, R.S.G.M.; Kessels, A.; Winkens, B.; van Kleef, M.; Patijn, J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Evidence for effectiveness of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) is still inconclusive. As heterogeneity of chronic pain patients might be an important factor for this lack of efficacy, identifying factors for a successful long-term outcome is of great importance.

  7. Prediction of loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy in patients with chronic periodontitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Di Wu

    Full Text Available This study examined the predictors of loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy in patients with chronic periodontitis.A total of 280 patients with moderate to severe chronic periodontitis in a tertiary care hospital in China were investigated and followed over the course of study. Questionnaires on clinical and demographic characteristics, self-efficacy for oral self-care and dental fear at baseline were completed. Participants were followed to determine whether they could adhere to long-term supportive periodontal therapy. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between clinical and demographic characteristics, self-efficacy for oral self-care, dental fear and loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy.The loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy was significantly associated with age [adjusted OR = 1.042, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.012-1.074, p = 0.006], severe periodontitis [adjusted OR = 4.892, 95%CI: 2.280-10.499, p<0.001], periodontal surgery [adjusted OR = 11.334, 95% CI: 2.235-57.472, p = 0.003], and middle and low-scoring of self-efficacy scale for self-care groups. The adjusted ORs of loss to follow-up for the middle- (54-59 and low-scoring groups (15-53 were 71.899 (95%CI: 23.926-216.062, p<0.001 and 4.800 (95% CI: 2.263-10.182, p<0.001, respectively, compared with the high-scoring SESS group (60-75.Age, severity of periodontitis, periodontal surgery and the level of self-efficacy for self-care may be effective predictors of loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy in patients with chronic periodontitis.

  8. [Cardiac surgery in octogenarian patients: evaluation of predictive factors of mortality, long-term outcome and quality of life].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana-Tejedor, Ana; Domínguez, Francisco J; Moreno Yangüela, Mar; Moreno, Raúl; López de Sá, Esteban; Mesa, José M; López-Sendón, José

    2008-10-04

    Increasing life expectancy in Western countries in the last decades has resulted in a significant gradual increasing number of octogenarians referred for cardiac surgery. There is a need for a critical evaluation of the long-term surgical outcome and quality of life in the elderly. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery and to assess the long term survival and quality of life. Data were reviewed on 150 patients aged over 80 years--mean age (standard deviation): 82.7 (2.5) years--who underwent cardiac surgery at our institution in the last 26 years. We analyzed clinical and epidemiological variables included in the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE), in-hospital morbidity and mortality, long term survival and quality of life after cardiac surgery. The 30-day mortality rate was 30.1%, with a mean hospital stay of 16.5 days (13-27). Emergent procedure, reparation of postinfarction ventricular ruptures, New York Heart Association functional class IV, chronic renal failure and previous myocardial infarction were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Mean follow up was 72.2 (9.9) months with survival rates of 87.3% and 57% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. Late postoperative quality of life in our 53 long-term survivors was significantly better than prior to surgery. New York Heart Association functional class improved from 2.52 to 1.48. Most survivors (97.7%) were satisfied with present quality of life Cardiac surgery in octogenarians is associated with increased in-hospital mortality rate and longer hospital stay. Our findings support that cardiac surgery can be performed in a selected elderly population with good long-term survival and quality of life.

  9. A Japanese Stress Check Program screening tool predicts employee long-term sickness absence: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Shimazu, Akihito; Eguchi, Hisashi; Inoue, Akiomi; Kawakami, Norito

    2018-01-25

    On December 1, 2015, the Japanese government launched the Stress Check Program, a new occupational health policy to screen employees for high psychosocial stress in the workplace. As only weak evidence exists for the effectiveness of the program, we sought to estimate the risk of stress-associated long-term sickness absence as defined in the program manual. Participants were 7356 male and 7362 female employees in a financial service company who completed the Brief Job Stress Questionnaire (BJSQ). We followed them for 1 year and used company records to identify employees with sickness absence of 1 month or longer. We defined high-risk employees using the BJSQ and criteria recommended by the program manual. We used the Cox proportional regression model to evaluate the prospective association between stress and long-term sickness absence. During the follow-up period, we identified 34 male and 35 female employees who took long-term sickness absence. After adjustment for age, length of service, job type, position, and post-examination interview, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for incident long-term sickness absence in high-stress employees were 6.59 (3.04-14.25) for men and 2.77 (1.32-5.83) for women. The corresponding population attributable risks for high stress were 23.8% (10.3-42.6) for men and 21.0% (4.6-42.1) for women. During the 1-year follow-up, employees identified as high stress (as defined by the Stress Check Program manual) had significantly elevated risks for long-term sickness absence.

  10. Long-term characteristics of geological conditions in Japan. Pt. 1. Fundamental concept for future's prediction of geological conditions and the subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Kazuhiro; Chigira, Masahiro.

    1997-01-01

    It is very important to evaluate the long-term stability of geological conditions such as volcanic activity, uplift-subsidence, earthquakes, faulting and sea level change when the long-term safety performance of HLW geological disposal is investigated. We proposed the extrapolation method using the geological date obtained in the geologic time of the last 500 ka to predict the future's tectonic movements in Japan. Furthermore, we extract geological conditions that would affect the long-term safety of HLW geological disposal with regard to direct and indirect radionuclide release scenarios. As a result, it was concluded that volcanic activity and tectonic movements including faulting and uplift-subsidence, should be considered and their surveying system and evaluating method should be developed. (author)

  11. Magnitude of increase in QTc interval after initiation of dofetilide in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation is associated with increased rates of pharmacological cardioversion and long-term freedom from recurrent atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Henry D; Waks, Jonathan W; Steinhaus, Daniel A; Zimetbaum, Peter

    2016-07-01

    Dofetilide is a class III antiarrhythmic drug approved for the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). Dofetilide-induced corrected QT (QTc) interval prolongation is a surrogate for the degree of drug effect, but the relationships between drug-induced QTc interval prolongation, pharmacological cardioversion (PCV), and freedom from recurrent AF are unclear. The purpose of this study was to assess associations between QTc interval change during dofetilide initiation and PCV and long-term AF recurrence. We performed retrospective analyses of a prospective cohort of patients with AF admitted for dofetilide initiation between 2001 and 2014. Clinical characteristics and electrocardiographic variables were assessed. We evaluated outcomes of successful PCV in patients with persistent AF and time to recurrence of AF in patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF. During the study, 243 patients with persistent AF and 176 patients with paroxysmal AF initiated dofetilide. PCV occurred in 93/243 (41.7%) patients with persistent AF. After multivariable adjustment, QTc interval change was associated with PCV (adjusted odds ratio 1.21; P = .003 per 10-ms QTc increase). Inhospital QTc interval change was associated with long-term freedom from AF in patients with persistent AF (adjusted hazard ratio 0.92; P = .011 at 4 years per 10-ms QTc increase), but not in patients with paroxysmal AF. In patients with persistent AF, PCV was also associated with long-term freedom from recurrent AF (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62; P = .009 at 4 years). The magnitude of QTc interval prolongation during dofetilide initiation is an independent predictor of successful PCV and long-term freedom from arrhythmia in patients with persistent AF. QTc interval change had no association with AF recurrence in patients with paroxysmal AF, suggesting that different mechanisms of arrhythmogenesis may be operant in different AF types. Copyright © 2016 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Long-term prediction of reinforced concrete structures - Use of thermodynamic data to assess steel corrosion in carbonated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huet, Bruno [Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et Argiles, DEN/DPC/SCCME/LECBA, Bat. 158, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette cedex (France)]|[Laboratoire de Physico-Chimie Industrielle, LPCI, INSA de Lyon, Bat. Leonard de Vinci, 20 av. Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex (France); L' Hostis, Valerie; Le Bescop, Patrick [Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et Argiles, DEN/DPC/SCCME/LECBA, Bat. 158, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette cedex (France); Idrissi, Hassane [Laboratoire de Physico-Chimie Industrielle, LPCI, INSA de Lyon, Bat. Leonard de Vinci, 20 av. Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex (France)

    2004-07-01

    In the context of the prediction of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures involved in the nuclear waste storage, the corrosion mechanisms of the steels have to be assessed and modelled. When nuclear wastes are embedded in reinforced concrete containers, the chemical environment of the reinforcement is progressively modified, due to the diffusion of the carbonation front inside the concrete matrix. This modification leads to the variation of the properties of the iron oxides formed at the steel/concrete interface, and the active corrosion can be initiated. In order to understand and modelled the mechanisms of steel corrosion in concrete, the equilibrium of two main systems must be separately described with the help of thermodynamic data issued from the literature: - The mineral phases, lime and calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H), in equilibrium with the pore solution during the propagation of the carbonation front; - The iron oxides in equilibrium with the aqueous solution. For this purpose, the nature of aqueous species present in the pore solution was calculated in the whole range of pH encountered during the cement paste degradation by carbonation. As a matter of fact, as the pH decreases, calcium concentration decreases and silicates concentration increases due to the calcium carbonate formation and C-S-H dissolution. The pH of a carbonated concrete ranges between 8.3 and 10, depending on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the porosity and the conversion degree of carbonation. In this pH range, the iron oxides equilibria were analysed as a function of the redox potential and aqueous species (carbonates and sulphates present in the solution) present inside the solution. In a reductive solution and in presence of carbonates, the high solubility of iron oxides may prevent passivation or generate the dissolution of the passive film. Moreover, the relevance of thermodynamics calculations has been confirmed by corrosion tests of mild steel

  13. Long-term prediction of reinforced concrete structures - Use of thermodynamic data to assess steel corrosion in carbonated concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huet, Bruno; L'Hostis, Valerie; Le Bescop, Patrick; Idrissi, Hassane

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the prediction of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures involved in the nuclear waste storage, the corrosion mechanisms of the steels have to be assessed and modelled. When nuclear wastes are embedded in reinforced concrete containers, the chemical environment of the reinforcement is progressively modified, due to the diffusion of the carbonation front inside the concrete matrix. This modification leads to the variation of the properties of the iron oxides formed at the steel/concrete interface, and the active corrosion can be initiated. In order to understand and modelled the mechanisms of steel corrosion in concrete, the equilibrium of two main systems must be separately described with the help of thermodynamic data issued from the literature: - The mineral phases, lime and calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H), in equilibrium with the pore solution during the propagation of the carbonation front; - The iron oxides in equilibrium with the aqueous solution. For this purpose, the nature of aqueous species present in the pore solution was calculated in the whole range of pH encountered during the cement paste degradation by carbonation. As a matter of fact, as the pH decreases, calcium concentration decreases and silicates concentration increases due to the calcium carbonate formation and C-S-H dissolution. The pH of a carbonated concrete ranges between 8.3 and 10, depending on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the porosity and the conversion degree of carbonation. In this pH range, the iron oxides equilibria were analysed as a function of the redox potential and aqueous species (carbonates and sulphates present in the solution) present inside the solution. In a reductive solution and in presence of carbonates, the high solubility of iron oxides may prevent passivation or generate the dissolution of the passive film. Moreover, the relevance of thermodynamics calculations has been confirmed by corrosion tests of mild steel

  14. Trophic position and metabolic rate predict the long-term decay process of radioactive cesium in fish: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideyuki Doi

    Full Text Available Understanding the long-term behavior of radionuclides in organisms is important for estimating possible associated risks to human beings and ecosystems. As radioactive cesium (¹³⁷Cs can be accumulated in organisms and has a long physical half-life, it is very important to understand its long-term decay in organisms; however, the underlying mechanisms determining the decay process are little known. We performed a meta-analysis to collect published data on the long-term ¹³⁷Cs decay process in fish species to estimate biological (metabolic rate and ecological (trophic position, habitat, and diet type influences on this process. From the linear mixed models, we found that 1 trophic position could predict the day of maximum ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish; and 2 the metabolic rate of the fish species and environmental water temperature could predict ecological half-lives and decay rates for fish species. These findings revealed that ecological and biological traits are important to predict the long-term decay process of ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish.

  15. Predictive validity of common mental disorders screening questionnaire as a screening instrument in long term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Hans Jørgen; Bech, Per

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: Screening instruments for detection of common mental disorders have not been validity tested in long term sickness absence (LSA), which is the aim of this study for the Common Mental Disorders Screening Questionnaire (CMD-SQ). METHODS: Of all 2,414 incident persons on continuous sick...... in Denmark there is not a legal requirement that sick-listed persons are certified as sick by a physician....

  16. Short- and long-term eating habit modification predicts weight change in overweight, postmenopausal women: results from the WOMAN study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barone Gibbs, Bethany; Kinzel, Laura S; Pettee Gabriel, Kelley; Chang, Yue-Fang; Kuller, Lewis H

    2012-09-01

    Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors rather than energy intake may be an alternative strategy. In addition, important behaviors might differ for short- vs long-term weight control. Our aim was to describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months. We performed secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight-loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up. We studied 481 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study. We measured changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Linear regression models were used to examine the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (Pstudies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Long-Term Field Data and Climate-Habitat Models Show That Orangutan Persistence Depends on Effective Forest Management and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Stephen D.; Brook, Barry W.; Goossens, Benoît; Ancrenaz, Marc; Alfred, Raymond; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Fordham, Damien A.

    2012-01-01

    Background Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions. Conclusions/Significance We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests. PMID:22970145

  18. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  19. Long-term effect of bosentan in adults versus children with pulmonary arterial hypertension associated with systemic-to-pulmonary shunt : Does the beneficial effect persist?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Loon, Rosa Laura E.; Hoendermis, Elke S.; Duffels, Marielle G. J.; Vonk-Noordegraaf, Anton; Mulder, Barbara J. M.; Hillege, Hans L.; Berger, Rolf M. F.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Data on long-term response to bosentan in adults and especially children with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) associated with systemic-to-pulmonary shunt are scarce. METHODS: We studied bosentan efficacy in 30 patients (20 adults, 10 children) with the disease at short- (4 months),

  20. Long-term effect of bosentan in adults versus children with pulmonary arterial hypertension associated with systemic-to-pulmonary shunt: Does the beneficial effect persist?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Loon, Rosa Laura E.; Hoendermis, Elke S.; Duffels, Marielle G. J.; Vonk-Noordegraaf, Anton; Mulder, Barbara J. M.; Hillege, Hans L.; Berger, Rolf M. F.

    2007-01-01

    Background Data on long-term response to bosentan in adults and especially children with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) associated with systemic-to-pulmonary shunt are scarce. Methods We studied bosentan efficacy in 30 patients (20 adults, 10 children) with the disease at short- (4 months),

  1. Persistent organic Pollutants (POPs) in the Greenland environment - Long-term temporal changes and effects on eggs of a bird of prey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, P. B.; Vorkamp, K.; Thomsen, M.

    The project studied the long-term time trend of brominated flame retardants, poly-chlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides in peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) eggs. Furthermore, possible effects of the contamination on the eggshell thickness were investigated using multivariate...

  2. Development of thermodynamic databases and geochemical/transport models for prediction of long-term radionuclide migration (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienzler, B.

    2000-01-01

    The isolation capacity of a repository system for radionuclides is described by geochemical modeling. The models for interpretation of experimental findings and for long-term extrapolation of experimental results are based on thermodynamic approaches. The geochemical models include dissolution reactions of waste forms, the evolution of the geochemical milieu, interactions of radionuclides with constituents of the groundwater (brines) and the precipitation of new solid phases. Reliable thermodynamic data, understanding of radionuclide complexation in aqueous multi-electrolyte solutions at the relevant ionic strength and knowledge on the formation of pure and mixed solids and on sorption processes are urgently needed for such model calculations. (author)

  3. Predictive Potential of Preoperative Nutritional Status in Long-Term Outcome Projections for Patients with Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, Katsunobu; Ohira, Masaichi; Tamura, Tatsuro; Toyokawa, Takahiro; Amano, Ryosuke; Kubo, Naoshi; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Muguruma, Kazuya; Yashiro, Masakazu; Maeda, Kiyoshi; Hirakawa, Kosei

    2016-02-01

    Preoperative nutritional status not only correlates with the incidence of postoperative complications but also may be indicative of long-term outcomes for patients with cancer. The impact of preoperative nutritional status on outcomes for patients undergoing gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC) was investigated. The study reviewed 594 patients treated for GC by gastrectomy at the authors' hospital between January, 2004 and December, 2010. Onodera's prognostic nutritional index (PNI) was invoked, using an optimal cut point to group patients as having high (PNI > 45; n = 449) or low (PNI ≤ 45; n = 145) nutritional status. Clinicopathologic features, perioperative results, and long-term outcomes, including cause of death, were compared. Multivariate analysis of 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) indicated that low PNI was independently associated with unfavorable outcomes for patients with GC. In subgroup analysis, the 5-year OS and DSS rates for patients with GC at stages 1 and 2 were significantly worse in the low PNI group than in the high PNI group. Although wound and extrasurgical field infections also tended to be more frequent in the low PNI group, postoperative intraabdominal infections did not differ significantly by group. Preoperative PNI may have merit as a gauge of prognosis for patients with GC at stages 1 and 2, but PNI and postoperative morbidity showed no correlation in this setting.

  4. Ikh Turgen Mountain Glacier Change and 3d Surface Extents Prediction Using Long Term Landsat Image and Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Erdenebat, Erdenetogtokh; Chogsom, Bolorchuluun; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag; Nanzad, Lkhagvadorj

    2018-04-01

    The glacier is most important the freshwater resources and indicator of the climate change. The researchers noted that during last decades the glacier is melting due to global warming. The study calculates a spatial distribution of protentional change of glacier coverage in the Ikh Turgen mountain of Western Mongolia, and it integrates long-term climate data and satellite datasets. Therefore, in this experiment has tried to estimation three-dimensional surface area of the glacier. For this purpose, Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) was applied to decision tree approach, using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and LC8 imagery for 1975-2016, a surface and slope for digital elevation model, precipitation and air temperature historical data of meteorological station. The potential volume area significantly changed glacier cover of the Ikh Turgen Mountain, and the area affected by highly variable precipitation and air temperature regimes. Between 1972 and 2016, a potential area of glacier area has been decreased in Ikh Turgen mountain region.

  5. Predictive factors of long-term colorectal cancer survival after ultrasound-controlled ablation of hepatic metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Socorro, Carmen Rosa; Saavedra, Pedro; Ramírez Felipe, José; Bohn Sarmiento, Uriel; Ruiz-Santana, Sergio

    2017-04-21

    The risk factors associated to long-term survival were assessed in patients with liver metastases of colorectal carcinoma undergoing ablative therapies. Single-centre cohort study, retrospectively analysed and prospectively collected consecutive patients with unresectable metastatic liver disease of colorectal carcinoma treated with ablative therapies between 1996 and 2013. Factors associated with survival time were identified using Cox's proportional hazard model with time-dependent covariates. A forward variable selection based on Akaike information criterion was performed. Relative risk and 95% confidence intervals for each factor were calculated. Statistical significance was set as P<.05. Seventy-five patients with liver metastases of colorectal cancer, with a mean age of 65.6 (10.3) underwent 106 treatments. Variables selected were good quality of life (RR 0.308, 95% CI 0.150-0.632) and tumour extension (RR 3.070, 95% CI 1.776-5.308). The median overall survival was 18.5 months (95% CI 17.4-24.4). The survival prognosis in median was 13.5 vs. 23.4 months for patients with and without tumour extension, and 23.0 vs. 12.8 months for patients with good and fair or poor quality of life, respectively. Good quality of life and tumour extension were the only statistically significant predictors of long-term survival in patients of colorectal carcinoma with liver metastatic disease undergoing ablative treatment with ultrasound. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Baseline red blood cell distribution width predicts long-term glycemic remission in patients with type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lijuan; Wang, Liangjiao; Huang, Xinwei; Liu, Liehua; Ke, Weijian; He, Xiaoying; Huang, Zhimin; Liu, Juan; Wan, Xuesi; Cao, Xiaopei; Li, Yanbing

    2017-09-01

    We explored whether red blood cell distribution width (RDW), a routinely checked item of complete blood cell counts, was an indicator of long-term euglycemia remission in patients with type 2 diabetes after short-term continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII). We analyzed the original data of patients enrolled in three randomized control trials from 2002 to 2014. CSII was administered to drug-naїve patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes to achieve and maintain euglycemia for 2weeks. A total of 185 patients were involved and 98 patients (52.97%) who achieved and maintained euglycemia for at least 12months were classified as the remission group, and the others as the non-remission group. Patients in remission group had a relatively lower value for baseline RDW (38.82±2.76vs 39.89±2.78fL, p=0.017) compared with those in non-remission group. A graded decrease of remission rate (67.50%, 55.00%, 53.66% and 30.77% for Quartile 1 to Quartile 4 respectively, P<0.05) was observed with the increasing of RDWs. The risk of hyperglycemic relapse was significantly increased for those in the highest quartile compared with the lowest (hazard ratio=2.68; 95% CI, 1.38-5.22). Those who achieved euglycemia within 7days or obtained a better fasting glucose after therapy had preferable remission rates. Patients with lower baseline RDWs are more likely to maintain a one-year euglycemia remission after short-term CSII. A faster normalization of glucose during treatment and a lower fasting glucose after therapy are correlated with a long-term glucose control. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Prediction of remission in Graves` disease treated with long-term carbimazole therapy: evaluation of technetium-99m thyroid uptake and TSH concentrations as prognostic indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prakash, R. [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Batra Hospital, New Delhi (India)

    1996-02-01

    Computerized technetium-99m thyroid uptake and thyrotropin (TSH) estimation using a sensitive immunoradiometric assay were performed at presentation and following completion of an 18-month course of antithyroid drug therapy in 45 patients with Graves` disease. All patients had increased {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake and subnormal TSH levels before the start of treatment. Twentytwo patients developed recurrent hyperthyroidism in a 3-year follow-up period. Of the 22 patients with relapse, 20 had had a persistently increased {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake at the end of the course of carbimazole treatment, whereas TSH had remained subnormal in 18 of the 22. All 23 patients who remained in remission until the end of the 3-year follow-up had had normal {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake following completion of antihyroid drug treatment. TSH levels had reverted to normal in 19 cases, but remained subnormal in four cases in this group at the end of treatment. The results suggest a high likelihood of relapse in patients who have persistently increased {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake and subnormal TSH after a full course of carbimazole treatment. Patients whose {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake and TSH levels have reverted to normal are likely to stay in long-term remission. Assessment of {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake and TSH levels following completion of carbimazole therapy for Graves` disease offers useful information regarding long-term prognosis. (orig.)

  8. Using spatial-stream-network models and long-term data to understand and predict dynamics of faecal contamination in a mixed land-use catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neill, Aaron James; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Strachan, Norval James Colin; Hough, Rupert Lloyd; Avery, Lisa Marie; Watson, Helen; Soulsby, Chris

    2018-01-15

    An 11year dataset of concentrations of E. coli at 10 spatially-distributed sites in a mixed land-use catchment in NE Scotland (52km 2 ) revealed that concentrations were not clearly associated with flow or season. The lack of a clear flow-concentration relationship may have been due to greater water fluxes from less-contaminated headwaters during high flows diluting downstream concentrations, the importance of persistent point sources of E. coli both anthropogenic and agricultural, and possibly the temporal resolution of the dataset. Point sources and year-round grazing of livestock probably obscured clear seasonality in concentrations. Multiple linear regression models identified potential for contamination by anthropogenic point sources as a significant predictor of long-term spatial patterns of low, average and high concentrations of E. coli. Neither arable nor pasture land was significant, even when accounting for hydrological connectivity with a topographic-index method. However, this may have reflected coarse-scale land-cover data inadequately representing "point sources" of agricultural contamination (e.g. direct defecation of livestock into the stream) and temporal changes in availability of E. coli from diffuse sources. Spatial-stream-network models (SSNMs) were applied in a novel context, and had value in making more robust catchment-scale predictions of concentrations of E. coli with estimates of uncertainty, and in enabling identification of potential "hot spots" of faecal contamination. Successfully managing faecal contamination of surface waters is vital for safeguarding public health. Our finding that concentrations of E. coli could not clearly be associated with flow or season may suggest that management strategies should not necessarily target only high flow events or summer when faecal contamination risk is often assumed to be greatest. Furthermore, we identified SSNMs as valuable tools for identifying possible "hot spots" of contamination which

  9. High levels of comorbidity and disability cancel out the dementia effect in predictions of long-term mortality after discharge in the very old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zekry, Dina; Herrmann, François R; Graf, Christophe E; Giannelli, Sandra; Michel, Jean-Pierre; Gold, Gabriel; Krause, Karl-Heinz

    2011-01-01

    The relative weight of various etiologies of dementia as predictors of long-term mortality after other risk factors have been taken into account remains unclear. We investigated the 5-year mortality risk associated with dementia in elderly people after discharge from acute care, taking into account comorbid conditions and functionality. A prospective cohort study of 444 patients (mean age: 85 years; 74% female) discharged from the acute geriatric unit of Geneva University Hospitals. On admission, each subject underwent a standardized diagnostic evaluation: demographic variables, cognitive, comorbid medical conditions and functional assessment. Patients were followed yearly by the same team. Predictors of survival at 5 years were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. The univariate model showed that being older and male, and having vascular and severe dementia, comorbidity and functional disability, were predictive of shorter survival. However, in the full multivariate model adjusted for age and sex, the effect of dementia type or severity completely disappeared when all the variables were added. In multivariate analysis, the best predictor was higher comorbidity score, followed by functional status (R(2) = 23%). The identification of comorbidity and functional impairment effects as predictive factors for long-term mortality independent of cognitive status may increase the accuracy of long-term discharge planning. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Long-term behaviour of concrete: development of operational model to predict the evolution of its containment performance. Application to cemented waste packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peycelon, H.; Le Bescop, P.; Richet, C.; Adenot, F.

    2001-01-01

    In order to describe the main phenomena during different stages of cement waste packages life-time and to predict the long-term behaviour (containment performance) of concrete, coupled experiments and modelling studies are achieved. With respect to logical methodology, improvement of these studies is accomplished. Degradation of concrete in low mineralized, carbonated and sulfated water lead to an evolution of chemical characteristics (dissolution/precipitation of solid phases) and of transport properties which must be included or coupled in retention/transport modelling of radio nuclides to predict containment performance. (author)

  11. Superiority of Serum Cystatin C Over Creatinine in Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis at Discharge From ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravn, Bo; Prowle, John R; Mårtensson, Johan; Martling, Claes-Roland; Bell, Max

    2017-09-01

    Renal outcomes after critical illness are seldom assessed despite strong correlation between chronic kidney disease and survival. Outside hospital, renal dysfunction is more strongly associated with mortality when assessed by serum cystatin C than by creatinine. The relationship between creatinine and longer term mortality might be particularly weak in survivors of critical illness. Retrospective observational cohort study. In 3,077 adult ICU survivors, we compared ICU discharge cystatin C and creatinine and their association with 1-year mortality. Exclusions were death within 72 hours of ICU discharge, ICU stay less than 24 hours, and end-stage renal disease. None. During ICU admission, serum cystatin C and creatinine diverged, so that by ICU discharge, almost twice as many patients had glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m when estimated from cystatin C compared with glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine, 44% versus 26%. In 743 patients without acute kidney injury, where ICU discharge renal function should reflect ongoing baseline, discharge glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine consistently overestimated follow-up glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine, whereas ICU discharge glomerular filtration rate estimated from cystatin C well matched follow-up chronic kidney disease status. By 1 year, 535 (17.4%) had died. In survival analysis adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidity, cystatin C was near-linearly associated with increased mortality, hazard ratio equals to 1.78 (95% CI, 1.46-2.18), 75th versus 25th centile. Conversely, creatinine demonstrated a J-shaped relationship with mortality, so that in the majority of patients, there was no significant association with survival, hazard ratio equals to 1.03 (0.87-1.2), 75th versus 25th centile. After adjustment for both creatinine and cystatin C levels, higher discharge creatinine was then associated with lower long-term mortality. In contrast to creatinine

  12. Development of prediction models of stress and long-term disability among claimants to injury compensation systems: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spittal, Matthew J; Grant, Genevieve; O'Donnell, Meaghan; McFarlane, Alexander C; Studdert, David M

    2018-04-28

    We sought to develop prognostic risk scores for compensation-related stress and long-term disability using markers collected within 3 months of a serious injury. Cohort study. Predictors were collected at baseline and at 3 months postinjury. Outcome data were collected at 72 months postinjury. Hospitalised patients with serious injuries recruited from four major trauma hospitals in Australia. 332 participants who made claims for compensation for their injuries to a transport accident scheme or a workers' compensation scheme. 12-item WHO Disability Assessment Schedule and 6 items from the Claims Experience Survey. Our model for long-term disability had four predictors (unemployed at the time of injury, history of a psychiatric disorder at time of injury, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity at 3 months and disability at 3 months). This model had good discrimination (R 2 =0.37) and calibration. The disability risk score had a score range of 0-180, and at a threshold of 80 had sensitivity of 56% and specificity of 86%. Our model for compensation-related stress had five predictors (intensive care unit admission, discharged to home, number of traumatic events prior to injury, depression at 3 months and not working at 3 months). This model also had good discrimination (area under the curve=0.83) and calibration. The compensation-related stress risk score had score range of 0-220 and at a threshold of 100 had sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 75%. By combining these two scoring systems, we were able to identify the subgroup of claimants at highest risk of experiencing both outcomes. The ability to identify at an early stage claimants at high risk of compensation-related stress and poor recovery is potentially valuable for claimants and the compensation agencies that serve them. The scoring systems we developed could be incorporated into the claims-handling processes to guide prevention-oriented interventions. © Article author(s) (or their employer

  13. Long-term persistence of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in air, soil and sediment around an abandoned pentachlorophenol factory in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Cheng; Zheng, Minghui; Zhang Bing; Gao Lirong; Liu Lidan; Zhou Xin; Ma Xiaodong; Xiao Ke

    2012-01-01

    Air, soils and sediments surrounding an abandoned pentachlorophenol (PCP) factory were sampled to determine the levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), unintentionally formed during PCP production. The mean concentration of PCDD/Fs in ambient air was one order of magnitude higher than that of the reference site. A trend of decreasing concentrations with increasing distance from the factory was observed, suggesting this site has a significant influence on the regional ambient air. As for soil samples collected within 3 km from the factory and sediment samples from the adjacent rivers, high levels of contamination were found with WHO-TEQ concentrations of 193 ± 211 pg/g and 667 ± 978 pg/g, respectively. The PCDD/F homologue profiles of all samples were consistent with those found in the technical product of PCP, with OCDD as the dominant congener. These results indicate PCDD/Fs in the historical contaminated site pose a long-term impact on surrounding environment. - Highlights: ► PCDD/Fs were investigated in various environmental compartments surrounding an abandoned pentachlorophenol (PCP) factory. ► High levels of PCDD/F contamination were found in ambient air, soils and the sediments around this factory. ► PCDD/F homologue profiles were consistent with PCDD/Fs in technical product of PCP. ► PCDD/Fs in this historical contaminated site pose a long-term impact on surrounding environment. - PCDD/Fs around an abandoned pentachlorophenol factory pose a long-term impact on surrounding environment.

  14. LIMCAL: a comprehensive food chain model for predicting radiation exposure to man in long-term nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1982-08-01

    A food chain model, LIMCAL, has been designed to aid in the assessment of the effects of long-term nuclear waste management on man far into the future. LIMCAL is particularly suited to the evaluation of an underground vault. Energy budgets, a basic feature of food chains, have been introduced in LIMCAL to help overcome uncertainties imposed by long time spans. LIMCAL includes all the ingestion pathways leading to man, which comprise terrestrial, fresh-water and saltwater food types and man's and animals' drinking water. The terrestrial pathways include both root uptake and leaf deposition. The basic input terms for LIMCAL are annual average radionuclide concentrations in soil, fresh water and saltwater. Annual average air concentrations can be calculated from soil concentrations by using the resuspension factor or the mass-loading approach. Many of the equations in LIMCAL are similar to those in FOOD II and NEPTUN, existing food chain models for contemporary assessments. The basic output of LIMCAL consists of radionculide concentrations in various food types and drinking water, and the resulting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents for infant and adult man. Dose/ concentration ratios can also be calculated readily by LIMCAL. LIMCAL is best described as a deterministic generic quasi-equilibrium assessment model of the linear-chain type. The parameters of LIMCAL have been reviewed in detail in a separate document

  15. Increase in posterior alpha activity during rehearsal predicts successful long-term memory formation of word sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meeuwissen, Esther B; Takashima, Atsuko; Fernández, Guillén; Jensen, Ole

    2011-12-01

    It is becoming increasingly clear that demanding cognitive tasks rely on an extended network engaging task-relevant areas and, importantly, disengaging task-irrelevant areas. Given that alpha activity (8-12 Hz) has been shown to reflect the disengagement of task-irrelevant regions in attention and working memory tasks, we here ask if alpha activity plays a related role for long-term memory formation. Subjects were instructed to encode and maintain the order of word sequences while the ongoing brain activity was recorded using magnetoencephalography (MEG). In each trial, three words were presented followed by a 3.4 s rehearsal interval. Considering the good temporal resolution of MEG this allowed us to investigate the word presentation and rehearsal interval separately. The sequences were grouped in trials where word order either could be tested immediately (working memory trials; WM) or later (LTM trials) according to instructions. Subjects were tested on their ability to retrieve the order of the three words. The data revealed that alpha power in parieto-occipital regions was lower during word presentation compared to rehearsal. Our key finding was that parieto-occipital alpha power during the rehearsal period was markedly stronger for successfully than unsuccessfully encoded LTM sequences. This subsequent memory effect demonstrates that high posterior alpha activity creates an optimal brain state for successful LTM formation possibly by actively reducing parieto-occipital activity that might interfere with sequence encoding. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Long-term collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2007-01-01

    The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

  17. Persistent changes in ability to express long-term potentiation/depression in the rat hippocampus after juvenile/adult stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggio, Nicola; Segal, Menahem

    2011-04-15

    The ventral hippocampus (VH) was recently shown to express lower magnitude long-term potentiation (LTP) compared with the dorsal hippocampus (DH). Exposure to acute stress reversed this difference, and VH slices from stressed rats expressed larger LTP than that produced in the DH, which was reduced by stress. Stressful experience in adolescence has been shown to produce long-lasting effects on animal behavior and on ability to express LTP/long-term depression (LTD) of reactivity to afferent stimulation in the adult. We are interested in possible interactions between juvenile and adult stress in their effects of adult plasticity. We studied the effects of a composite juvenile (28-30 days) stress, followed by a reminder stressful experience in the young adult (60 days) rat, on the ability to produce LTP and LTD in CA1 region of slices of the VH and DH. Juvenile or adult stress produced a transient decrease in ability to express LTP in DH and a parallel increase in LTP in VH. Stress in the young adult after juvenile stress produced a striking prolongation of the DH/VH disparity with respect to the ability to express both LTP and LTD into the adulthood of the rat. These results have important implications for the impact of juvenile stress on adult neuronal plasticity and on the understanding the functions of the different sectors of the hippocampus. Copyright © 2011 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Serial Diffusion Tensor Imaging In Vivo Predicts Long-Term Functional Recovery and Histopathology in Rats following Different Severities of Spinal Cord Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Samir P.; Smith, Taylor D.; VanRooyen, Jenna L.; Powell, David; Cox, David H.; Sullivan, Patrick G.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in vivo to quantify temporally spinal cord injury (SCI) pathology in adult female Sprague-Dawley rats that were scanned prior to a moderate or severe upper lumbar contusion SCI. Injured rats were behaviorally tested for hind limb locomotion (Basso, Beattie, Bresnahan [BBB] scores) weekly for 4 weeks and scanned immediately after each session, ending with terminal gait analyses prior to euthanasia. As a measure of tissue integrity, fractional anisotropy (FA) values were significantly lower throughout the spinal cord in both injury cohorts at all time-points examined versus pre-injury. Moreover, FA values were significantly lower following severe versus moderate SCI at all time-points, and FA values at the injury epicenters at all time-points were significantly correlated with both spared white and gray matter volumes, as well as lesion volumes. Critically, quantified FA values at subacute (24 h) and all subsequent time-points were highly predictive of terminal behavior, reflected in significant correlations with both weekly BBB scores and terminal gait parameters. Critically, the finding that clinically relevant subacute (24 h) FA values accurately predict long-term functional recovery may obviate long-term studies to assess the efficacy of therapeutics tested experimentally or clinically. In summary, this study demonstrates a reproducible serial MRI procedure to predict the long-term impact of contusion SCI on both behavior and histopathology using subacute DTI metrics obtained in vivo to accurately predict multiple terminal outcome measures, which can be particularly valuable when comparing experimental interventions. PMID:26650623

  19. Insomnia predicts long-term all-cause mortality after acute myocardial infarction: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condén, Emelie; Rosenblad, Andreas

    2016-07-15

    Sleep impairment such as insomnia is an established risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The aim of the current study was to examine the association between insomnia and all-cause mortality among AMI patients. This prospective cohort study used data on n=732 patients recruited from September 2006 to May 2011 as part of the Västmanland Myocardial Infarction Study (VaMIS), a prospective cohort study of AMI patients living in Västmanland County, Sweden. Participants were followed up for all-cause mortality until December 9, 2015. The outcome of interest was time-to-death (TTD), with the presence of insomnia being the risk factor of main interest. Data were analyzed using a piecewise Cox regression model with change point for insomnia at two years of follow-up, adjusted for socioeconomic, lifestyle and clinical risk factors. In total, n=175 (23.9%) of the participants suffered from insomnia. During a mean (SD) follow-up time of 6.0 (2.5) years (4392person-years), a total of n=231 (31.6%) participants died, n=77 (44.0%) in the insomnia group and n=154 (27.6%) in the non-insomnia group (log-rank test pinsomnia did not imply a higher risk of death during the first two years after AMI (HR 0.849; 95% CI 0.508-1.421; p=0.534). During the period after the first two years, however, insomnia implied a 1.6 times higher risk of death (HR 1.597; 95% CI 1.090-2.341; p=0.016). Insomnia implies a higher risk of death among AMI patients in the long term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Geological predictions for the long-term isolation of radioactive waste based on extrapolating uniform mode and rate of crustal movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeda, Koji; Tanikawa, Shin-ichi; Yasue, Ken-ichi

    2013-01-01

    Long-term predictions of geological and tectonic disturbances are key issues for the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal, especially on the Japanese Islands. Geological predictions of disturbances should be performed by extrapolating uniform mode and rate of crustal movements under the current framework. Multiple lines of geological evidence in Japan strongly suggest that the present mode of tectonics began during the late Pliocene to early Quaternary, and was fully developed by the middle Pleistocene. The uplift rates of mountains in Japan are determined to have been approximately constant until the middle Pleistocene based on simulations of temporal changes in mean altitude developed under concurrent tectonics and denudation processes. The onset of the neotectonic mode of deformation was probably triggered by the initiation of the eastward movement of the Amur Plate and the collision of the Izu block with central Honshu. The uncertainty of predictions beyond steady-state crustal deformation would, in general, increase for long-term predictions using the extrapolation procedure. Consequently, future geological and tectonic disturbances in Japan can be estimated with relatively high reliability for the next 100,000 years. (author)

  1. Testing predictions of forest succession using long-term measurements: 100 yrs of observations in the Oregon Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark E. Harmon; Robert J. Pabst

    2015-01-01

    Question: Many predictions about forest succession have been based on chronosequences. Are these predictions – at the population, community and ecosystemlevel – consistent with long-termmeasurements in permanent plots? Location: Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco dominated forest in western Oregon, US.Methods: Over a 100-yr period,...

  2. Natural transformation of chlordecone into 5b-hydrochlordecone in French West Indies soils: statistical evidence for investigating long-term persistence of organic pollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devault, Damien A; Laplanche, Christophe; Pascaline, Hélène; Bristeau, Sébastien; Mouvet, Christophe; Macarie, Hervé

    2016-01-01

    Chlordecone (CLD) was an organochlorine insecticide whose previous use resulted in an extensive pollution of the environment with severe health effects and social consequences. A closely related compound, 5b-hydrochlordecone (5b-hydroCLD), has been searched for and often detected in environmental matrices from the geographical area where CLD was applied. The current consensus considered that its presence was not the result of a biotic or abiotic dechlorination of CLD in these matrices but rather the consequence of its presence as impurity (synthesis by-product) in the CLD released into the environment. The aim of the present study was to determine if and to what extent degradation of CLD into 5b-hydroCLD occurred in the field. To test this hypothesis, the ratios of 5b-hydroCLD and CLD concentrations in a dataset of 810 soils collected between 2006 and 2012 in Martinique were compared to the ratios measured in 3 samples of the CLD dust commercial formulations applied in the banana fields of French West Indies (FWI) and 1 sample of the technical-grade CLD corresponding to the active ingredient used in such formulations. Soil data were processed with a hierarchical Bayesian model to account for random measurement errors and data censoring. Any pathway of CLD transformation into 5b-hydroCLD occurring over the long term in FWI soils would indeed change the ratio of 5b-hydroCLD/CLD compared to what it was in the initially applied formulations. Results showed a significant increase of the 5b-hydroCLD/CLD ratio in the soils-25 times greater in soil than in commercial formulations-which suggested that natural CLD transformation into 5b-hydroCLD over the long term occurred in these soils. Results from this study may impact future decisions for the remediation of the polluted areas.

  3. Osteoprotegerin predicts long-term outcome in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Sune Folke; Bjerre, Mette; Mogelvang, Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    : 1.03-1.59; p = 0.03), repeat myocardial infarction (HR: 1.30; CI: 1.00-1.68; p = 0.05) and admission with heart failure (HR: 1.50; CI: 1.18-1.90; p = 0.001). Conclusion: This study shows that OPG independently predicts long-term outcome in STEMI patients treated with pPCI. Eventually, this knowledge...... in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). Methods: We included 716 consecutive STEMI patients admitted to a single high-volume invasive heart center from September 2006 to December 2008. Endpoints were all...

  4. User manual of Soil and Cesium Transport (SACT), a program to predict long-term Cs distribution using USLE for soil erosion, transportation and deposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Hiroshi; Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Kitamura, Akihiro

    2016-12-01

    This manual provides useful and necessary information to users of 'SACT' (Soil and Cesium Transport), which Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has developed to predict a long-term distribution of Cs deposited on the land surface of Fukushima due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident on March 11, 2011. SACT calculates soil movement (erosion, transportation and deposition) and resulting Cs migration, and predicts its future distribution, with the assumption that Cs is adhered to soil initially. SACT uses USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) for potential soil loss and simple hydraulic equations for soil transportation and deposition in which soil is divided into course-grained sand and fine-grained silt/clay. The amount of Cs moved with soil is predicted by the amount of above-mentioned soil movement and concentration ratio of Cs for each grain-size. SACT utilizes the 'ArcGIS' software and the GIS (Geographical Information System). SACT is characterized by its simplicity which enables fast calculation for wide area for long-term duration, using existing simple equations including USLE. Data for used parameters are widely available, and site-specific calculations are possible by using data obtained from the targeted area. (author)

  5. Computer-Aided Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis of Patients with Ulcerative Colitis after Cytoapheresis Therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuro Takayama

    Full Text Available Cytoapheresis (CAP therapy is widely used in ulcerative colitis (UC patients with moderate to severe activity in Japan. The aim of this study is to predict the need of operation after CAP therapy of UC patients on an individual level using an artificial neural network system (ANN. Ninety UC patients with moderate to severe activity were treated with CAP. Data on the patients' demographics, medication, clinical activity index (CAI and efficacy of CAP were collected. Clinical data were divided into training data group and validation data group and analyzed using ANN to predict individual outcomes. The sensitivity and specificity of predictive expression by ANN were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. Events of admission, operation, and use of immunomodulator, and efficacy of CAP were significantly correlated to the outcome. Requirement of operation after CAP therapy was successfully predicted by using ANN. This newly established ANN strategy would be used as powerful support of physicians in the clinical practice.

  6. Short-term and long-term thermal prediction of a walking beam furnace using neuro-fuzzy techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banadaki Hamed Dehghan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The walking beam furnace (WBF is one of the most prominent process plants often met in an alloy steel production factory and characterized by high non-linearity, strong coupling, time delay, large time-constant and time variation in its parameter set and structure. From another viewpoint, the WBF is a distributed-parameter process in which the distribution of temperature is not uniform. Hence, this process plant has complicated non-linear dynamic equations that have not worked out yet. In this paper, we propose one-step non-linear predictive model for a real WBF using non-linear black-box sub-system identification based on locally linear neuro-fuzzy (LLNF model. Furthermore, a multi-step predictive model with a precise long prediction horizon (i.e., ninety seconds ahead, developed with application of the sequential one-step predictive models, is also presented for the first time. The locally linear model tree (LOLIMOT which is a progressive tree-based algorithm trains these models. Comparing the performance of the one-step LLNF predictive models with their associated models obtained through least squares error (LSE solution proves that all operating zones of the WBF are of non-linear sub-systems. The recorded data from Iran Alloy Steel factory is utilized for identification and evaluation of the proposed neuro-fuzzy predictive models of the WBF process.

  7. The value of short-term pain relief in predicting the long-term outcome of 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joswig, Holger; Neff, Armin; Ruppert, Christina; Hildebrandt, Gerhard; Stienen, Martin Nikolaus

    2018-05-01

    The predictive value of short-term arm pain relief after 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injection (ESI) for the 1-month treatment response has been previously demonstrated. It remained to be answered whether the long-term response could be estimated by the early post-interventional pain course as well. Prospective observational study, following a cohort of n = 45 patients for a period of 24 months after 'indirect' ESI for radiculopathy secondary to a single-level cervical disk herniation (CDH). Arm and neck pain on the visual analog scale (VAS), health-related quality of life with the Short Form-12 (SF-12), and functional outcome with the Neck Pain and Disability (NPAD) Scale were assessed. Any additional invasive treatment after a single injection (second injection or surgery) defined treatment outcome as 'non-response'. At 24 months, n = 30 (66.7%) patients were responders and n = 15 (33.3%) were non-responders. Non-responders exited the follow-up at 1 month (n = 10), at 3 months (n = 4), and at 6 months (n = 1). No patients were injected again or operated on between the 6- and 24-month follow-up. Patients with favorable treatment response at 24 months had significantly lower VAS arm pain (p  50% short term pain reduction was not a reliable predictor of the 24-month responder status. SF-12 and NPAD scores were better among treatment responders in the long term. Patients who require a second injection or surgery after 'indirect' cervical ESI for a symptomatic CDH do so within the first 6 months. Short-term pain relief cannot reliably predict the long-term outcome.

  8. The roles of self-efficacy and motivation in the prediction of short- and long-term adherence to exercise among patients with coronary heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovinec D'Angelo, Monika E; Pelletier, Luc G; Reid, Robert D; Huta, Veronika

    2014-11-01

    Poor adherence to regular exercise is a documented challenge among people with heart disease. Identifying key determinants of exercise adherence and distinguishing between the processes driving short- and long-term adherence to regular exercise is a valuable endeavor. The purpose of the present study was to test a model of exercise behavior change, which incorporates motivational orientations and self-efficacy for exercise behavior, in the prediction of short- and long-term exercise adherence. Male and female patients (N = 801) hospitalized for coronary heart disease were recruited from 3 tertiary care cardiac centers and followed for a period of 1 year after hospital discharge. A prospective, longitudinal design was used to examine the roles of motivation and self-efficacy (measured at recruitment and at 2 and 6 months after discharge) in the prediction of exercise behavior at 6 and 12 months. Baseline measures of exercise and clinical and demographic covariates were included in the analyses. Structural equation modeling showed that both autonomous motivation and self-efficacy were important determinants of short-term (6-month) exercise behavior regulation, but that only autonomous motivation remained a significant predictor of long-term (12-month) exercise behavior. Self-efficacy partially mediated the relationship between motivation for exercise and 6-month exercise behavior. This research confirmed the roles of autonomous motivation and self-efficacy in the health behavior change process and emphasized the key function of autonomous motivation in exercise maintenance. Theoretical and cardiac rehabilitation program applications of this research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  9. Pre-operative Carotid Plaque Echolucency Assessment has no Predictive Value for Long-Term Risk of Stroke or Cardiovascular Death in Patients Undergoing Carotid Endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Waard, D; de Borst, G J; Bulbulia, R; Pan, H; Halliday, A

    2017-08-01

    In patients with carotid stenosis receiving medical treatment, carotid plaque echolucency has been thought to predict risk of future stroke and of other cardiovascular events. This study evaluated the prognostic value of pre-operative plaque echolucency for future stroke and cardiovascular death in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy in the first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-1). In ACST-1, 1832/3120 patients underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA), of whom 894 had visual echolucency assessment according to the Gray-Weale classification. During follow-up patients were monitored both for peri-procedural (i.e. within 30 days) death, stroke, or MI, and for long-term risk of stroke or cardiovascular death. Unconditional maximum likelihood estimation was used to calculate odds ratios of peri-procedural risk and Kaplan-Meier statistics with log-rank test were used to compare cumulative long-term risks. Of 894 operated patients in whom echolucency was assessed, 458 plaques (51%) were rated as echolucent and peri-procedural risk of death/stroke/MI in these patients was non-significantly higher when compared with patients with non-echolucent plaques (OR 1.48 [95% CI 0.76-2.88], p = .241). No differences were found in the 10 year risk of any stroke (30/447 [11.6%] vs. 29/433 [11.0%], p = .900) or cardiovascular (non-stroke) death (85/447 [27.9%] vs. 93/433 [32.1%], p = .301). In ACST-1, carotid plaque echolucency assessment in patients undergoing CEA offered no predictive value with regard to peri-operative or long-term stroke risk or of cardiovascular (non-stroke) death. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. Long-term success and failure with SG is predictable by 3 months: a multivariate model using simple office markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottam, Austin; Billing, Josiah; Cottam, Daniel; Billing, Peter; Cottam, Samuel; Zaveri, Hinali; Surve, Amit

    2017-08-01

    Despite being the most common surgery in the United States, little is known about predicting weight loss success and failure with sleeve gastrectomy (SG). Papers that have been published are inconclusive. We decided to use multivariate analysis from 2 practices to design a model to predict weight loss outcomes using data widely available to any surgical practice at 3 months to determine weight loss outcomes at 1 year. Two private practices in the United States. A retrospective review of 613 patients from 2 bariatric institutions were included in this study. Co-morbidities and other preoperative characteristics were gathered, and %EWL was calculated for 1, 3, and 12 months. Excess weight loss (%EWL)failure. Multiple variate analysis was used to find factors that affect %EWL at 12 months. Preoperative sleep apnea, preoperative diabetes, %EWL at 1 month, and %EWL at 3 months all affect %EWL at 1 year. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of our model was 72% and 91%, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 91%, respectively. One-year results of the SG can be predicted by diabetes, sleep apnea, and weight loss velocity at 3 months postoperatively. This can help surgeons direct surgical or medical interventions for patients at 3 months rather than at 1 year or beyond. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Persisting Inflammation and Chronic Immune Activation but Intact Cognitive Function in HIV-Infected Patients After Long-Term Treatment With Combination Antiretroviral Therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Karin K; Pedersen, Maria; Gaardbo, Julie C

    2013-01-01

    Impaired cognitive function in HIV-infected patients has been suggested. Treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) restores CD4⁺ cell counts and suppresses viral replication, but immune activation and inflammation may persist. The aim of the study was to examine if cognitive function...

  12. An exploratory analysis of criteria for the metabolic syndrome and its prediction of long-term cardiovascular outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girman, C.J.; Dekker, J.M.; Rhodes, T.; Nijpels, M.G.A.A.M.; Stehouwer, C.D.A.; Bouter, L.M.; Heine, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    Studies have shown an increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes with the metabolic syndrome, but information on predictive properties of the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel 3 (NCEP) criteria is sparse. The authors used data from the Hoorn population-based study in the

  13. Long-term predictive value of postsurgical cortisol concentrations for cure and risk of recurrence in Cushing's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pereira, Alberto M.; van Aken, Maarten O.; van Dulken, Hans; Schutte, Pieter J.; Biermasz, Nienke R.; Smit, Jan W. A.; Roelfsema, Ferdinand; Romijn, Johannes A.

    2003-01-01

    We assessed the value of postoperative plasma cortisol concentrations to predict cure and recurrence of Cushing's disease after transsphenoidal surgery (TS). Seventy-eight of 80 consecutive patients treated by TS for Cushing's disease were evaluated. TS cured 72% (n = 56) of the patients. Two weeks

  14. Prediction of the long term accumulation and leaching of copper in Dutch agricultural soils: a risk assessment study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenenberg, J.E.; Römkens, P.F.A.M.; Vries, de W.

    2006-01-01

    This report describes a model study to assess whether current copper inputs on agricultural land lead to accumulation of copper and in time to an exceedance of a Predicted No Effect Concentration. A copper mass balance model was applied to the whole Netherlands. Future copper concentrations after

  15. Prediction of Long-Term Benefits of Inhaled Steroids by Phenotypic Markers in Moderate-to-Severe COPD: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiska B Snoeck-Stroband

    Full Text Available The decline in lung function can be reduced by long-term inhaled corticosteroid (ICS treatment in subsets of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. We aimed to identify which clinical, physiological and non-invasive inflammatory characteristics predict the benefits of ICS on lung function decline in COPD.Analysis was performed in 50 steroid-naive compliant patients with moderate to severe COPD (postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1, 30-80% of predicted, compatible with GOLD stages II-III, age 45-75 years, >10 packyears smoking and without asthma. Patients were treated with fluticasone propionate (500 μg bid or placebo for 2.5 years. Postbronchodilator FEV1, dyspnea and health status were measured every 3 months; lung volumes, airway hyperresponsiveness (PC20, and induced sputum at 0, 6 and 30 months. A linear mixed effect model was used for analysis of this hypothesis generating study.Significant predictors of attenuated FEV1-decline by fluticasone treatment compared to placebo were: fewer packyears smoking, preserved diffusion capacity, limited hyperinflation and lower inflammatory cell counts in induced sputum (p<0.04.Long-term benefits of ICS on lung function decline in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD are most pronounced in patients with fewer packyears, and less severe emphysema and inflammation. These data generate novel hypotheses on phenotype-driven therapy in COPD.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00158847.

  16. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

    2016-02-01

    Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

  17. Predicting Long-Term Cognitive Outcome Following Breast Cancer with Pre-Treatment Resting State fMRI and Random Forest Machine Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesler, Shelli R; Rao, Arvind; Blayney, Douglas W; Oakley-Girvan, Ingrid A; Karuturi, Meghan; Palesh, Oxana

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to determine if resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acquired at pre-treatment baseline could accurately predict breast cancer-related cognitive impairment at long-term follow-up. We evaluated 31 patients with breast cancer (age 34-65) prior to any treatment, post-chemotherapy and 1 year later. Cognitive testing scores were normalized based on data obtained from 43 healthy female controls and then used to categorize patients as impaired or not based on longitudinal changes. We measured clustering coefficient, a measure of local connectivity, by applying graph theory to baseline resting state fMRI and entered these metrics along with relevant patient-related and medical variables into random forest classification. Incidence of cognitive impairment at 1 year follow-up was 55% and was predicted by classification algorithms with up to 100% accuracy ( p breast cancer. This information could inform treatment decision making by identifying patients at highest risk for long-term cognitive impairment.

  18. Predictive models of long-term anatomic outcome in age-related macular degeneration treated with as-needed Ranibizumab.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Buendia, Lucia; Delgado-Tirado, Santiago; Sanabria, M Rosa; Fernandez, Itziar; Coco, Rosa M

    2017-08-18

    To analyze predictors and develop predictive models of anatomic outcome in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) treated with as-needed ranibizumab after 4 years of follow-up. A multicenter consecutive case series non-interventional study was performed. Clinical, funduscopic and OCT characteristics of 194 treatment-naïve patients with AMD treated with as-needed ranibizumab for at least 2 years and up to 4 years were analyzed at baseline, 3 months and each year until the end of the follow-up. Baseline demographic and angiographic characteristics were also evaluated. R Statistical Software was used for statistical analysis. Main outcome measure was final anatomic status. Factors associated with less probability of preserved macula were diagnosis in 2009, older age, worse vision, presence of atrophy/fibrosis, pigment epithelium detachment, and geographic atrophy/fibrotic scar/neovascular AMD in the fellow eye. Factors associated with higher probability of GA were presence of atrophy and greater number of injections, whereas male sex, worse vision, lesser change in central macular thickness and presence of fibrosis were associated with less probability of GA as final macular status. Predictive model of preserved macula vs. GA/fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 77.78% and specificity of 69.09%. Predictive model of GA vs. fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 68.89% and specificity of 72.22%. We identified predictors of final macular status, and developed two predictive models. Predictive models that we propose are based on easily harvested variables, and, if validated, could be a useful tool for individual patient management and clinical research studies.

  19. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: The density HRV parameter Dyx is a new heart rate variability (HRV) measure based on multipole analysis of the Poincaré plot obtained from RR interval time series, deriving information from both the time and frequency domain. Preliminary results have suggested that the parameter may provide...... new predictive information on mortality in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). This study compares the prognostic significance of Dyx to that of traditional linear and nonlinear measures of HRV. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Nordic ICD pilot study, patients with an acute MI were screened...... with 2D echocardiography and 24-hour Holter recordings. The study was designed to assess the power of several HRV measures to predict mortality. Dyx was tested in a subset of 206 consecutive Danish patients with analysable Holter recordings. After a median follow-up of 8.5 years 70 patients had died...

  20. Predictive Value of Lidocaine infusion for treatment success of Oxcarbazepine long-term therapy in patients with Neuropathic Pain Syndrome

    OpenAIRE

    Maurer, Konrad; Schipper, Sivan; Gantenbein, Andreas; Alon, Eli; Sandor, Peter S

    2013-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Pharmacotherapy in patients with neuropathic pain syndromes (NPS) can be associated with long periods of trial and error before reaching satisfactory analgesia. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a short intravenous (i.v.) infusion of lidocaine may have a predictive value for the efficacy of oxcarbazepine. METHODS: In total, 16 consecutive patients with NPS were studied in a prospective, uncontrolled, open-label study design. Each patient received i.v. lidocaine...

  1. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  2. Long-term results of preventive embolization of renal angiomyolipomas: evaluation of predictive factors of volume decrease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hocquelet, A.; Cornelis, F.; Le Bras, Y.; Meyer, M.; Tricaud, E.; Lasserre, A.S.; Grenier, N. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Urology and Vascular Imaging, Bordeaux (France); Ferriere, J.M.; Robert, G. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Urology Service, Bordeaux (France)

    2014-08-15

    To evaluate the efficacy of selective arterial embolization (SAE) of angiomyolipomas based on the percentage volume reduction after embolization and to identify predictive factors of volume decrease. Patients receiving prophylactic SAE of renal angiomyolipomas were included retrospectively over 3 years. The volume change after SAE and haemorrhagic or surgical events were recorded. Initial tumour volume, percentage tumour fat content, mean tumour density, embolic agent used, number of angiomyolipomas and tuberous sclerosis disease were evaluated as predictive factors of volume decrease. A total of 19 patients with 39 angiomyolipomas were included with median follow-up of 28 months (interquartile range 21-37 months). All treatments were technically successful (92 % primary and 8 % secondary). No distal bleeding or any increase in size or surgical nephrectomy after SAE was recorded. Mean volume reduction was 72 % (±24 %). Volumes before SAE (R{sup 2} = 0.276; p = 0.001), percentage fat content (R{sup 2} = 0.612; p < 0.0001) and mean angiomyolipoma density (R{sup 2} = 0.536; p < 0.0001) were identified as predictive factors of volume decrease. In multivariate regression, only percentage fat content influenced volume decreases. SAE is an efficient treatment for angiomyolipoma devascularisation and volume reduction. A significant reduction of volume is modulated by the initial volume and tissue composition of the tumour. (orig.)

  3. Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Hardekopf

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase in temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

  4. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Diana M; Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-03-01

    Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve's capacity to classify participants likely to lose models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  5. Prediction of long-term absence due to sickness in employees: development and validation of a multifactorial risk score in two cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airaksinen, Jaakko; Jokela, Markus; Virtanen, Marianna; Oksanen, Tuula; Koskenvuo, Markku; Pentti, Jaana; Vahtera, Jussi; Kivimäki, Mika

    2018-01-24

    Objectives This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for long-term sickness absence. Methods Survey responses on work- and lifestyle-related questions from 65 775 public-sector employees were linked to sickness absence records to develop a prediction score for medically-certified sickness absence lasting >9 days and ≥90 days. The score was externally validated using data from an independent population-based cohort of 13 527 employees. For both sickness absence outcomes, a full model including 46 candidate predictors was reduced to a parsimonious model using least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. Predictive performance of the model was evaluated using C-index and calibration plots. Results Variance explained in ≥90-day sickness absence by the full model was 12.5%. In the parsimonious model, the predictors included self-rated health (linear and quadratic term), depression, sex, age (linear and quadratic), socioeconomic position, previous sickness absences, number of chronic diseases, smoking, shift work, working night shift, and quadratic terms for body mass index and Jenkins sleep scale. The discriminative ability of the score was good (C-index 0.74 in internal and 0.73 in external validation). Calibration plots confirmed high correspondence between the predicted and observed risk. In >9-day sickness absence, the full model explained 15.2% of the variance explained, but the C-index of the parsimonious model was poor (<0.65). Conclusions Individuals' risk of a long-term sickness absence that lasts ≥90 days can be estimated using a brief risk score. The predictive performance of this score is comparable to those for established multifactorial risk algorithms for cardiovascular disease, such as the Framingham risk score.

  6. Human sensory Long-Term Potentiation (LTP) predicts visual memory performance and is modulated by the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) Val66Met polymorphism

    OpenAIRE

    King, Rohan; Moreau, David; Russell, Bruce; Kirk, Ian; Wu, Carolyn; Antia, Ushtana; Lamb, Yvette; Spriggs, Meg; Thompson, Chris; Mckay, Nicole; Shelling, Andrew; Waldie, Karen; Teyler, Tim; Hamm, Jeff; Mcnair, Nicolas

    2018-01-01

    Background: Long-Term Potentiation (LTP) is recognised as a core neuronal process underlying long-term memory. However, a direct relationship between LTP and human memory performance is yet to be demonstrated. The first aim of the current study was thus to assess the relationship between LTP and human long-term memory performance. With this also comes an opportunity to explore factors thought to mediate the relationship between LTP and long-term memory, and to gain additional insight into var...

  7. Low pain intensity after opioid withdrawal as a first step of a comprehensive pain rehabilitation program predicts long-term nonuse of opioids in chronic noncancer pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumova, Elena K; Bennemann, Philipp; Kindler, Doris; Schwarzer, Andreas; Zenz, Michael; Maier, Christoph

    2013-09-01

    In specialized pain clinics there is an increasing number of patients with severe chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) despite long-term opioid medication. Few clinical studies show short-term pain relief after opioid withdrawal (OW). We have evaluated the relation between pain intensity after OW and long-term opioid nonuse. One hundred two consecutive patients with severe CNCP despite opioid medication (mean treatment duration, 43 mo) reported pain intensity (numerical rating scale, 0 to 10), Pain Disability Index, mood (CES-D), and quality of life (Short Form 36) before, shortly, and 12 to 24 months after inpatient OW. Total opioid withdrawal (n = 78) or significant dose reduction (DR; n = 24, mean reduction, 82%) was performed after individual decision. Opioid intake 12 to 24 months later, respectively dose increase ≥ 100% (DR group), was considered relapse. T tests, multivariable analysis of variance, logistic regression. After OW current pain intensity significantly decreased on an average by 41% (6.4 ± 2.4 vs. 3.8 ± 2.5), maximal and average pain by 18% and 24%, respectively. Twelve to 24 months later 42 patients (41%) relapsed (31 of the total opioid withdrawal group, 6 of the DR group, 5 lost). Patients without later relapse showed significantly lower pain scores than the later relapsed patients already shortly after OW (5.0 ± 2.2 vs. 5.9 ± 2.1) and 12 to 24 months later (5.5 ± 2.4 vs. 6.5 ± 2.0). There was a significant relation between relapse probability and pain intensity immediately after OW. In many patients with severe CNCP, despite opioid medication, sustainable pain relief can be achieved if OW is included in the rehabilitation program. Consequently, we recommend OW for opioid-resistant CNCP before any opioid escalation. Lower pain intensity shortly after OW may predict the long-term opioid nonuse probability.

  8. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Comité des collectes à long terme

    2011-01-01

    It is the time of the year when our fireman colleagues go around the laboratory for their traditional calendars sale. A part of the money of the sales will be donated in favour of the long-term collections. We hope that you will welcome them warmly.

  9. The nutritional index 'CONUT' is useful for predicting long-term prognosis of patients with end-stage liver diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukushima, Koji; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Kawagishi, Naoki; Kondo, Yasuteru; Inoue, Jun; Kakazu, Eiji; Ninomiya, Masashi; Wakui, Yuta; Saito, Naoko; Satomi, Susumu; Shimosegawa, Tooru

    2011-07-01

    Organ allocation in Japan remains difficult due to the shortage of deceased-donor livers. The screening tool for controlling nutritional status (CONUT) has been considered to be an established assessment model for evaluating nutritional aspects in surgical patients. However, the application of this CONUT for evaluating the prognosis of patients with end-stage liver diseases has not been evaluated. We assessed the predictability of the prognoses of 58 patients with end-stage liver disease using various prognostic models. The patients registered at the transplantation center of Tohoku University Hospital for the waiting list of Japan Organ Transplant Network for liver transplantation were retrospectively analyzed. The prognoses of the patients were evaluated using the following 5 models: CONUT, the model for ELD with incorporation of sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP), prognostic nutritional indices (Onodera: PNI-O), and the Japan Medical Urgency criteria of the liver (JMU). Cox's proportional hazard model, log-rank test and concordance(c)-static were used for the statistics. The indices were 17.74 ± 5.80 for MELD-Na, 9.21 ± 2.19 for CTP, 33.92 ± 11.16 for PNI-O, and 7.57 ± 3.09 for CONUT. Univariate analysis revealed the significance of CONUT (p = 0.017, Odds: 1.325) but not MELD-Na, CTP, JMU or PNI-O for prediction. The cumulative survival rate was clearly discriminated at CONUT point 7. The c-static was 0.081 for the 6-month (M) survival rate, 0.172 for 12M, 0.517 for 36M, 0.821 for 48M, and 0.938 for 60M for CONUT. In conclusion, CONUT shows best predictability for the distant prognoses of patients with ELD.

  10. National-scale exposure prediction for long-term concentrations of particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun-Young; Song, Insang

    2017-07-01

    The limited spatial coverage of the air pollution data available from regulatory air quality monitoring networks hampers national-scale epidemiological studies of air pollution. The present study aimed to develop a national-scale exposure prediction model for estimating annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at residences in South Korea using regulatory monitoring data for 2010. Using hourly measurements of PM 10 and NO 2 at 277 regulatory monitoring sites, we calculated the annual average concentrations at each site. We also computed 322 geographic variables in order to represent plausible local and regional pollution sources. Using these data, we developed universal kriging models, including three summary predictors estimated by partial least squares (PLS). The model performance was evaluated with fivefold cross-validation. In sensitivity analyses, we compared our approach with two alternative approaches, which added regional interactions and replaced the PLS predictors with up to ten selected variables. Finally, we predicted the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at 83,463 centroids of residential census output areas in South Korea to investigate the population exposure to these pollutants and to compare the exposure levels between monitored and unmonitored areas. The means of the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 for 2010, across regulatory monitoring sites in South Korea, were 51.63 μg/m3 (SD = 8.58) and 25.64 ppb (11.05), respectively. The universal kriging exposure prediction models yielded cross-validated R 2 s of 0.45 and 0.82 for PM 10 and NO 2 , respectively. Compared to our model, the two alternative approaches gave consistent or worse performances. Population exposure levels in unmonitored areas were lower than in monitored areas. This is the first study that focused on developing a national-scale point wise exposure prediction approach in South Korea, which will allow national exposure assessments and

  11. Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy: A Retrospective Analysis of 7781 Gastric Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy.Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer.We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups.Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212-1.869, P cancer recurrence.

  12. General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

    2016-05-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Long-term estrogen exposure promotes carcinogen bioactivation, induces persistent changes in gene expression, and enhances the tumorigenicity of MCF-7 human breast cancer cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spink, Barbara C.; Bennett, James A.; Pentecost, Brian T.; Lostritto, Nicole; Englert, Neal A.; Benn, Geoffrey K.; Goodenough, Angela K.; Turesky, Robert J.; Spink, David C.

    2009-01-01

    The cumulative exposure to estrogens is an important determinant in the risk of breast cancer, yet the full range of mechanisms involving estrogens in the genesis and progression of breast cancer remains a subject of debate. Interactions of estrogens and environmental toxicants have received attention as putative factors contributing to carcinogenesis. Mechanistic studies have demonstrated interactions between estrogen receptor α (ERα) and the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR), with consequences on the genes that they regulate. Many studies of ERα and AhR-mediated effects and crosstalk between them have focused on the initial molecular events. In this study, we investigated ERα- and AhR-mediated effects in long-term estrogen exposed (LTEE) MCF-7 human breast cancer cells, which were obtained by continuous culturing for at least 12 weeks in medium supplemented with 1 nM of 17β-estradiol (E 2 ). With these LTEE cells and with parallel control cells cultured without E 2 supplementation, we performed an extensive study of cytochrome P450 (CYP) induction, carcinogen bioactivation, global gene expression, and tumorigenicity in immunocompromised mice. We found that LTEE cells, in comparison with control cells, had higher levels of AhR mRNA and protein, greater responsiveness for AhR-regulated CYP1A1 and CYP1B1 induction, a 6-fold higher initial level of benzo(a)pyrene-DNA adducts as determined by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry, marked differences in the expression of numerous genes, and a higher rate of E 2 -dependent tumor growth as xenografts. These studies indicate that LTEE causes adaptive responses in MCF-7 cells, which may reflect processes that contribute to the overall carcinogenic effect of E 2 .

  14. Usefulness of desmopressin testing to predict relapse during long-term follow-up in patients in remission from Cushing’s disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Giacinto Ambrogio

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Recurrence of Cushing’s disease after successful transsphenoidal surgery occurs in some 30% of the patients and the response to desmopressin shortly after surgery has been proposed as a marker for disease recurrence. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the response to desmopressin over time after surgery. We tested 56 patients with Cushing’s disease in remission after transsphenoidal surgery with desmopressin for up to 20 years after surgery. The ACTH and cortisol response to desmopressin over time was evaluated in patients on long-term remission or undergoing relapse; an increase by at least 27 pg/mL in ACTH levels identified responders. The vast majority of patients who underwent successful adenomectomy failed to respond to desmopressin after surgery and this response pattern was maintained over time in patients on long-term remission. Conversely, a response to desmopressin reappeared in patients who subsequently developed a recurrence of Cushing’s disease, even years prior to frank hypercortisolism. It appears therefore that a change in the response pattern to desmopressin proves predictive of recurrence of Cushing’s disease and may indicate which patients require close monitoring.

  15. Exercise Predicts Long-Term Weight Loss in Women With Class 1 and Class 2 Obesity Through Effects on Emotional Eating and its Correlates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annesi, James J

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between exercise and long-term weight loss is definitive. However, in deconditioned individuals, the basis of that relationship beyond minimal energy expenditures is unclear. Effects emanating from exercise's proposed association with changes in emotional eating and its psychosocial correlates were tested. Women with class 1 (n = 67) and class 2 (n = 53) obesity, participating in a new community-based weight-loss treatment based on tenets of social cognitive theory, were assessed at baseline and Months 3, 6, 12, and 24 on weight and measures of exercise outputs, emotional eating, eating self-regulation, and negative mood. An exercise-support component was provided for 2 months prior to group nutrition-change sessions. Improvements from baseline were significant on all measures but did not significantly differ by group. Although not for the initial 3 months, changes in exercise significantly predicted weight changes over 6, 12, and 24 months from baseline. However, only 26%-31% of the lost weight was directly attributable to exercise-related energy expenditures. Changes in emotional eating significantly mediated the exercise-weight-loss relationship, and changes in self-regulation and mood significantly mediated the exercise-emotional eating relationship. Findings supported exercise's role in long-term weight loss primarily through psychosocial factors.

  16. Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chieh-Fan Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  17. Kinetic modelling of bentonite-canister interaction. Long-term predictions of copper canister corrosion under oxic and anoxic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wersin, P.; Spahiu, K.; Bruno, J.

    1994-09-01

    A new modelling approach for canister corrosion which emphasises chemical processes and diffusion at the bentonite-canister interface is presented. From the geochemical boundary conditions corrosion rates for both an anoxic case and an oxic case are derived and uncertainties thereof are estimated via sensitivity analyses. Time scales of corrosion are assessed by including calculations of the evolution of redox potential in the near field and pitting corrosion. This indicates realistic corrosion depths in the range of 10 -7 and 4*10 -5 mm/yr, respectively for anoxic and oxic corrosion. Taking conservative estimates, depths are increased by a factor of about 200 for both cases. From these predictions it is suggested that copper canister corrosion does not constitute a problem for repository safety, although certain factors such as temperature and radiolysis have not been explicitly included. The possible effect of bacterial processes on corrosion should be further investigated as it might enhance locally the described redox process. 35 refs, 11 figs, 6 tabs

  18. Kinetic modelling of bentonite-canister interaction. Long-term predictions of copper canister corrosion under oxic and anoxic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wersin, P; Spahiu, K; Bruno, J [MBT Tecnologia Ambiental, Cerdanyola (Spain)

    1994-09-01

    A new modelling approach for canister corrosion which emphasises chemical processes and diffusion at the bentonite-canister interface is presented. From the geochemical boundary conditions corrosion rates for both an anoxic case and an oxic case are derived and uncertainties thereof are estimated via sensitivity analyses. Time scales of corrosion are assessed by including calculations of the evolution of redox potential in the near field and pitting corrosion. This indicates realistic corrosion depths in the range of 10{sup -7} and 4*10{sup -5} mm/yr, respectively for anoxic and oxic corrosion. Taking conservative estimates, depths are increased by a factor of about 200 for both cases. From these predictions it is suggested that copper canister corrosion does not constitute a problem for repository safety, although certain factors such as temperature and radiolysis have not been explicitly included. The possible effect of bacterial processes on corrosion should be further investigated as it might enhance locally the described redox process. 35 refs, 11 figs, 6 tabs.

  19. [Characteristics of long-term persisting strains of tick-borne encephalitis virus in different forms of the chronic process in animals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, T V; Pogodina, V V; Frolova, M P; Karmysheva, V Ia

    1982-01-01

    The properties of the Vasilchenko strain of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus and its 3 variants isolated at various stages of persistent infection (383, 453, and 535 days) in Macaca rhesus monkeys and Syrian hamsters with different forms of the chronic TBE were studied. The process characterized by chronic focal inflammatory-degenerative changes in the brains of hamsters without the disturbance of motor functions was associated with persistence of different kinds of virus-specific antigens without virulent virus production. Brain explants of this group of hamsters yielded a virus with cytopathogenic properties but not pathogenic for mice. In a chronic disease developing without the initial acute period, a virus was recovered from hamsters which proved to be virulent for mice and to possess the hemagglutinating and high invasive activity. The most virulent strain was isolated from monkeys with continuously progressive chronic encephalitis with steady paralysis of the extremities. This isolate differed from the parental Vasilchenko strain by a high pathogenicity for hamsters by intracerebral and subcutaneous routes, and thermostability at 50 degrees C.

  20. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  1. Survival and cardiovascular events after coarctation-repair in long-term follow-up (COAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambul Heck, P; Pabst von Ohain, J; Kaemmerer, H; Ewert, P; Hager, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term sequelae and events after coarctation repair are well described. However, the predictive value of variables from clinical follow-up investigation for late events and survival has rarely been investigated. All patients who participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for reevaluation of survival, current clinical status and major cardiovascular events. Of 273 eligible patients, 209 were available for follow-up. Nine patients had died at a median age of 46years (range 30-64years), five of them due to cardiovascular complications. Late mortality after surgical intervention was 5.7% with a median age of 41years (range 16-64years). Twenty-five patients had a major cardiovascular event: 12 had procedures at the aortic valve or aortic arch, 8 had procedures for restenosis, 2 had endocarditis, 2 had a cerebrovascular insult and 1 an aortic dissection. The presence of bicuspid aortic valve (p=0.009), brachial-ankle blood pressure gradient >20mmHg (p<0.001) and reduced left ventricular function (p=0.002) correlated with major cardiovascular events. Surgical correction of coarctation of the aorta shows fairly low mortality in the long-term follow-up. Late morbidities include recoarctation, but also the consequences of the hemodynamics produced by a congenital bicuspid aortic valve, presence of which is predictive for aortic valve procedures: however the predictive value of clinical variables is limited. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  2. Long-term persistence in protection and response to a hepatitis B vaccine booster among adolescents immunized in infancy in the western region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhen-Zi; Gao, Yu-Hua; Lu, Wei; Jin, Cun-Duo; Zeng, Ying; Yan, Ling; Ding, Feng; Li, Tong; Liu, Xue-En; Zhuang, Hui

    2017-04-03

    To evaluate the persistence of protection from hepatitis B (HB) vaccination among adolescents immunized with a primary series of HB vaccine as infants, and the immune response to booster doses. Healthy adolescents aged 15-17 y vaccinated with HB vaccine only at birth were enrolled. Baseline serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), antibody against hepatitis B surface antigen (anti-HBs) and antibody against hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc) were detected by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) and anti-HBs level was measured using Chemiluminescent Microparticle Immunoassay (CMIA). The rate of HBV infection was calculated. The seroprotection rate of anti-HBs (≥ 10 mIU/ml) and GMC level were used to evaluate the persistence of immunity from HB vaccination. Those with anti-HBs infants, 3 (1.7%) had HBV infection and 74 (41.1%) had anti-HBs ≥ 10 mIU/ml with a GMC of 145.11 mIU/ml. The remaining 103 (57.2%) with anti-HBs < 10 mIU/ml received a booster dose of 20 μg HB vaccine and achieved the seroprotection rate of 84% (84/100) and a GMC of 875.19 mIU/ml at one month post-booster. An additional dose of 60 μg HB vaccine was administered to the 16 adolescents with anti-HBs < 10 mIU/ml after the first booster. All of them obtained anti-HBs seroprotection with a GMC of 271.02 mIU/ml at 1.5 months after an additional dose. Vaccine-induced immunity persisted for up to 15-17 y in 89.3% (158/177) of participants after a primary HB vaccination in infancy. Administering a booster dose of 20μg HB vaccine elicited an anamnestic immune responses in the majority of individuals with baseline anti-HBs <10 mIU/ml.

  3. Postoperative plasma cortisol levels predict long-term outcome in patients with Cushing's disease and determine which patients should be treated with pituitary irradiation after surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imaki, Toshihiro; Tsushima, Toshio; Hizuka, Naomi; Odagiri, Emi; Murata, Yoji; Takano, Kazue; Suda, Toshihiro

    2001-01-01

    Transsphenoidal surgery is the treatment of choice for ACTH-producing pituitary adenoma (Cushing's disease) and pituitary irradiation is widely considered the most appropriate treatment for patients with Cushing's disease for whom transsphenoidal surgery has been unsuccessful. We studied 49 consecutive patients who underwent transsphenoidal surgery for the treatment of Cushing's disease at Tokyo Women's Medical University from 1977-1997 with a mean follow-up duration of 87.6 months (range, 24-253 months). We examined the relationship between postoperative endocrinological data, assessed between 3 and 8 weeks after surgery, and long-term outcome and efficacy of pituitary irradiation after surgery. Long-term remission was defined as the regression of the symptom and signs of Cushing's syndrome, and restoration of normal levels of plasma ACTH, cortisol and urinary free cortisol, together with adequate suppression of morning plasma cortisol levels following the administration of low dose (1 mg) of dexamethasone. Thirty patients had no additional treatment after pituitary surgery. Only 1 of 25 patients (4%) whose postoperative plasma cortisol level was less than 2 μg/dl developed recurrent disease whereas 3 out of 5 patients with postoperative plasma cortisol levels higher than 2 μg/dl relapsed. Postoperative external pituitary radiation was used to treat the remaining 19 patients. Four patients who received radiation therapy had a low or undetectable postoperative plasma cortisol level (<2 μg/dl, 56 nmol/L) and all of these patients developed hypopituitarism whereas 5 patients with subnormal plasma cortisol levels (2.0-10.0 μg/dl) remained in remission. Among 10 patients with persistent disease after surgery, 6 entered remission 6-47 months after irradiation but one of them subsequently relapsed after 108 months. These results suggest that additional therapy should be avoided in patients with a postoperative plasma cortisol less than 2 μg/dl because relapse is

  4. Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

    2017-02-01

    UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

  5. Safety, Efficacy, and Persistence of Long-Term Mirabegron Treatment for Overactive Bladder in the Daily Clinical Setting: Interim (1-Year) Report from a Japanese Post-Marketing Surveillance Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Daisuke; Tabuchi, Hiromi; Uno, Satoshi

    2017-08-01

    To report interim 1-year results from a 3-year surveillance study evaluating safety, efficacy, and persistence of long-term mirabegron for overactive bladder (OAB). Patients starting treatment with mirabegron for urinary urgency, daytime frequency, and urgency incontinence associated with OAB were registered and followed up for 3 years. Data were collected on adverse drug reactions (ADR), changes in OAB symptoms, changes in Overactive Bladder Symptom Score (OABSS), and treatment discontinuations. Treatment persistence rates were calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Eighty-one ADR were observed in 72/1139 patients (6.3%) through 1 year of mirabegron treatment, with the incidence highest during the first month. No significant change in residual urine volume was observed at any observation point up to 1 year of mirabegron treatment. Mirabegron was deemed "effective" in 883/1091 patients (80.9%) at 1 year/discontinuation. Total OABSS was decreased with statistical significance at 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year, or at discontinuation (P similar for male and female patients but significantly higher for patients aged ≥65 years (67.3%; n = 908) compared with those aged <65 years (59.8%; n = 231; log-rank test: P = 0.032). Long-term OAB treatment with mirabegron was well-tolerated, with effectiveness maintained through 1 year. Mirabegron treatment persistence was higher than has been previously reported, and was greater in patients aged ≥65 years compared with those aged <65 years. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  6. Long-term stability of thermophilic co-digestion submerged anaerobic membrane reactor encountering high organic loading rate, persistent propionate and detectable hydrogen in biogas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Wei; Takayanagi, Kazuyuki; Niu, Qigui; Shofie, Mohammad; Li, Yu You

    2013-12-01

    The performance of thermophilic anaerobic co-digestion of coffee grounds and sludge using membrane reactor was investigated for 148 days, out of a total research duration of 263 days. The OLR was increased from 2.2 to 33.7 kg-COD/m(3)d and HRT was shortened from 70 to 7 days. A significant irreversible drop in pH confirmed the overload of reactor. Under a moderately high OLR of 23.6 kg-COD/m(3)d, and with HRT and influent total solids of 10 days and 150 g/L, respectively, the COD removal efficiency was 44.5%. Hydrogen in biogas was around 100-200 ppm, which resulted in the persistent propionate of 1.0-3.2g/L. The VFA consumed approximately 60% of the total alkalinity. NH4HCO3 was supplemented to maintain alkalinity. The stability of system relied on pH management under steady state. The 16SrDNA results showed that hydrogen-utilizing methanogens dominates the archaeal community. The propionate-oxidizing bacteria in bacterial community was insufficient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Impact of long term applications of cotton pesticides on soil biological properties, dissipation of [14C]-methyl parathion and persistence of multi-pesticide residues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrea, M.M.; Peres, T.B.; Luchini, L.C.; Marcondes, M.A.; Pettinelli, A. Jr.; Nakagawa, L.E.

    2001-01-01

    Biological parameters were followed in soils from a cotton farm (Tatui) where the recommended pesticides have been used for years, and from an experimental field (Sao Paulo) which was subdivided in two areas: one received the recommended pesticides and the other was maintained untreated. The soil bioactivities monitored from 1995 to 1998, after different pesticide applications, were: basal and glucose-induced respiration; anaerobic activity; nitrification rate; activity of the enzymes: dehydrogenase, aryl sulfatase and arginine deaminase; the soil capacity to mineralize an aromatic pesticide molecule ([ 14 C]-2,4-D), fungal and bacterial contributions for soil respiration until the beginning of 1998, and fungal and bacterial numbers from the beginning of 1998. The dissipation of [ 14 C]-methyl parathion - one of the recommended pesticides - was followed by radiometric techniques only in Sao Paulo, but persistence of multi-residues was determined in both soils by gas-liquid chromatography. All the biological parameters varied each sampling time and values also varied among soil samples, being inhibited or stimulated by the different pesticide applications, but they mostly recovered the initially detected activity. Dissipation of methyl parathion was fast and not affected by the other pesticide applications. Pesticide residues varied between the two soils but were mostly low after all applications, which indicates their dissipation. (author)

  8. Predicting short and long-term exercise intentions and behaviour in patients with coronary artery disease: A test of protection motivation theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Heather; Reida, Robert; D'Angeloa, Monika Slovinec; Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Morrina, Louise; Beatona, Louise; Papadakisa, Sophia; Pipe, Andrew

    2009-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of protection motivation theory (PMT) in the prediction of exercise intentions and behaviour in the year following hospitalisation for coronary artery disease (CAD). Patients with documented CAD (n = 787), recruited at hospital discharge, completed questionnaires measuring PMT's threat (i.e. perceived severity and vulnerability) and coping (i.e. self-efficacy, response efficacy) appraisal constructs at baseline, 2 and 6 months, and exercise behaviour at baseline, 6 and 12 months post-hospitalisation. Structural equation modelling showed that the PMT model of exercise at 6 months had a good fit with the empirical data. Self-efficacy, response efficacy, and perceived severity predicted exercise intentions, which, in turn predicted exercise behaviour. Overall, the PMT variables accounted for a moderate amount of variance in exercise intentions (23%) and behaviour (20%). In contrast, the PMT model was not reliable for predicting exercise behaviour at 12 months post-hospitalisation. The data provided support for PMT applied to short-term, but not long-term, exercise behaviour among patients with CAD. Health education should concentrate on providing positive coping messages to enhance patients' confidence regarding exercise and their belief that exercise provides health benefits, as well as realistic information about disease severity.

  9. Statistical Analysis of CO2 Exposed Wells to Predict Long Term Leakage through the Development of an Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Boyun [Univ. of Louisiana, Lafayette, LA (United States); Duguid, Andrew [Battelle, Columbus, OH (United States); Nygaard, Ronar [Missouri Univ. of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO (United States)

    2017-08-05

    The objective of this project is to develop a computerized statistical model with the Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm (INGA) for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO2 sequestration operations. This object has been accomplished by conducting research in three phases: 1) data mining of CO2-explosed wells, 2) INGA computer model development, and 3) evaluation of the predictive performance of the computer model with data from field tests. Data mining was conducted for 510 wells in two CO2 sequestration projects in the Texas Gulf Coast region. They are the Hasting West field and Oyster Bayou field in the Southern Texas. Missing wellbore integrity data were estimated using an analytical and Finite Element Method (FEM) model. The INGA was first tested for performances of convergence and computing efficiency with the obtained data set of high dimension. It was concluded that the INGA can handle the gathered data set with good accuracy and reasonable computing time after a reduction of dimension with a grouping mechanism. A computerized statistical model with the INGA was then developed based on data pre-processing and grouping. Comprehensive training and testing of the model were carried out to ensure that the model is accurate and efficient enough for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO2 sequestration operations. The Cranfield in the southern Mississippi was select as the test site. Observation wells CFU31F2 and CFU31F3 were used for pressure-testing, formation-logging, and cement-sampling. Tools run in the wells include Isolation Scanner, Slim Cement Mapping Tool (SCMT), Cased Hole Formation Dynamics Tester (CHDT), and Mechanical Sidewall Coring Tool (MSCT). Analyses of the obtained data indicate no leak of CO2 cross the cap zone while it is evident that the well cement sheath was invaded by the CO2 from the storage zone. This observation is consistent

  10. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study)123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-01-01

    Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing <5% of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and thresholds were calculated for each model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve’s capacity to classify participants likely to lose <5% of their body weight at the end of 1 y. The models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Results: Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). Conclusions: The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. The POUNDS Lost study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00072995. PMID:25733628

  11. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp-lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp-lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp-lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp-lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp-lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Hypoxic Prostate/Muscle PO{sub 2} Ratio Predicts for Outcome in Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer: Long-Term Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turaka, Aruna [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Buyyounouski, Mark K., E-mail: mark.buyyounouski@fccc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Hanlon, Alexandra L. [School of Nursing, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Horwitz, Eric M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Greenberg, Richard E. [Department of Surgery, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Movsas, Benjamin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2012-03-01

    Purpose: To correlate tumor oxygenation status with long-term biochemical outcome after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Custom-made Eppendorf PO{sub 2} microelectrodes were used to obtain PO{sub 2} measurements from the prostate (P), focused on positive biopsy locations, and normal muscle tissue (M), as a control. A total of 11,516 measurements were obtained in 57 men with localized prostate cancer immediately before prostate brachytherapy was given. The Eppendorf histograms provided the median PO{sub 2}, mean PO{sub 2}, and % <5 mm Hg or <10 mm Hg. Biochemical failure (BF) was defined using both the former American Society of Therapeutic Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) (three consecutive raises) and the current Phoenix (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 2 ng/mL) definitions. A Cox proportional hazards regression model evaluated the influence of hypoxia using the P/M mean PO{sub 2} ratio on BF. Results: With a median follow-up time of 8 years, 12 men had ASTRO BF and 8 had Phoenix BF. On multivariate analysis, P/M PO{sub 2} ratio <0.10 emerged as the only significant predictor of ASTRO BF (p = 0.043). Hormonal therapy (p = 0.015) and P/M PO{sub 2} ratio <0.10 (p = 0.046) emerged as the only independent predictors of the Phoenix BF. Kaplan-Meier freedom from BF for P/M ratio <0.10 vs. {>=}0.10 at 8 years for ASTRO BF was 46% vs. 78% (p = 0.03) and for the Phoenix BF was 66% vs. 83% (p = 0.02). Conclusions: Hypoxia in prostate cancer (low mean P/M PO{sub 2} ratio) significantly predicts for poor long-term biochemical outcome, suggesting that novel hypoxic strategies should be investigated.

  13. Does early verbal fluency decline after STN implantation predict long-term cognitive outcome after STN-DBS in Parkinson's disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, Alaina; Wallon, David; Lefaucheur, Romain; Derrey, Stéphane; Fetter, Damien; Verin, Marc; Maltête, David

    2014-11-15

    An early and transient verbal fluency (VF) decline and impairment in frontal executive function, suggesting a cognitive microlesion effect may influence the cognitive repercussions related to subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation (STN-DBS). Neuropsychological tests including semantic and phonemic verbal fluency were administered both before surgery (baseline), the third day after surgery (T3), at six months (T180), and at an endpoint multiple years after surgery (Tyears). Twenty-four patients (mean age, 63.5 ± 9.5 years; mean disease duration, 12 ± 5.8 years) were included. Both semantic and phonemic VF decreased significantly in the acute post-operative period (44.4 ± 28.2% and 34.3 ± 33.4%, respectively) and remained low at 6 months compared to pre-operative levels (decrease of 3.4 ± 47.8% and 10.8 ± 32.1%) (P < 0.05). Regression analysis showed phonemic VF to be an independent factor of decreased phonemic VF at six months. Age was the only independent predictive factor for incident Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD) (F (4,19)=3.4, P<0.03). An acute post-operative decline in phonemic VF can be predictive of a long-term phonemic VF deficit. The severity of this cognitive lesion effect does not predict the development of dementia which appears to be disease-related. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A Comparative Study of Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Scores for Predicting Long-Term Outcome After Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNett, Molly M; Amato, Shelly; Philippbar, Sue Ann

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare predictive ability of hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores and scores obtained using a novel coma scoring tool (the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness [FOUR] scale) on long-term outcomes among patients with traumatic brain injury. Preliminary research of the FOUR scale suggests that it is comparable with GCS for predicting mortality and functional outcome at hospital discharge. No research has investigated relationships between coma scores and outcome 12 months postinjury. This is a prospective cohort study. Data were gathered on adult patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to urban level I trauma center. GCS and FOUR scores were assigned at 24 and 72 hours and at hospital discharge. Glasgow Outcome Scale scores were assigned at 6 and 12 months. The sample size was n = 107. Mean age was 53.5 (SD = ±21, range = 18-91) years. Spearman correlations were comparable and strongest among discharge GCS and FOUR scores and 12-month outcome (r = .73, p coma scores performed best for both tools, with GCS discharge scores predictive in multivariate models.

  15. Quality of life after surgical treatment of coarctation in long-term follow-up (CoAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambul Heck, Pinar; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Kaemmerer, Harald; Ewert, Peter; Hager, Alfred

    2018-01-01

    We sought to analyze the quality of life and the predictive value of clinical variables from previous follow-up study in patients late after surgical treatment of aortic coarctation on the quality of life. All patients, who have participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for the health-related quality of life questionnaire SF-36 from January 2013 through December 2014. From 273 eligible patients, we received data from 135 patients, 9 of them died during the follow-up time at the median age of 46years (range 30-64years). Seventy-four patients did not participate in the study, other 64 patients moved to remote or unknown areas and could not be contacted. Quality of life was good in the fields of physical role and pain. However, patients reported a significant impairment in general health and in health transition, depending on the age. Arterial hypertension and variables from echocardiography or exercise testing from the COALA study were not predictive on functional health status. Quality of life in patients late after aortic coarctation repair is fairly good compared with healthy controls. Impairments in general health and health transition depend mainly on age, can be explained due to numerous comorbidities and reinterventions in long-term. The predictive value of the commonly assessed clinical variables on quality of life is limited. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    45 years helping in developing countries! CERN personnel have been helping the least fortunate people on the planet since 1971. How? With the Long-Term Collections! Dear Colleagues, The Staff Association’s Long-Term Collections (LTC) Committee is delighted to share this important milestone in the life of our Laboratory with you. Indeed, whilst the name of CERN is known worldwide for scientific discoveries, it also shines in the many humanitarian projects which have been supported by the LTC since 1971. Several schools and clinics, far and wide, carry its logo... Over the past 45 years, 74 projects have been supported (9 of which are still ongoing). This all came from a group of colleagues who wanted to share a little of what life offered them here at CERN, in this haven of mutual understanding, peace and security, with those who were less fortunate elsewhere. Thus, the LTC were born... Since then, we have worked as a team to maintain the dream of these visionaries, with the help of regular donat...

  17. Long-Term Collection

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    Dear Colleagues, As previously announced in Echo (No. 254), your delegates took action to draw attention to the projects of the Long-Term Collections (LTC), the humanitarian body of the CERN Staff Association. On Tuesday, 11 October, at noon, small Z-Cards were widely distributed at the entrances of CERN restaurants and we thank you all for your interest. We hope to have achieved an important part of our goal, which was to inform you, convince you and find new supporters among you. We will find out in the next few days! An exhibition of the LTC was also set up in the Main Building for the entire week. The Staff Association wants to celebrate the occasion of the Long-Term Collection’s 45th anniversary at CERN because, ever since 1971, CERN personnel have showed great support in helping the least fortunate people on the planet in a variety of ways according to their needs. On a regular basis, joint fundraising appeals are made with the Directorate to help the victims of natural disasters around th...

  18. Collectes à long terme

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2014-01-01

    En cette fin d’année 2014 qui approche à grands pas, le Comité des Collectes à Long Terme remercie chaleureusement ses fidèles donatrices et donateurs réguliers pour leurs contributions à nos actions en faveur des plus démunis de notre planète. C’est très important, pour notre Comité, de pouvoir compter sur l’appui assidu que vous nous apportez. Depuis plus de 40 ans maintenant, le modèle des CLT est basé principalement sur des actions à long terme (soit une aide pendant 4-5 ans par projet, mais plus parfois selon les circonstances), et sa planification demande une grande régularité de ses soutiens financiers. Grand MERCI à vous ! D’autres dons nous parviennent au cours de l’année, et ils sont aussi les bienvenus. En particulier, nous tenons à remercier...

  19. The Sources of Life Chances: Does Education, Class Category, Occupation, or Short-Term Earnings Predict 20-Year Long-Term Earnings?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ChangHwan Kim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In sociological studies of economic stratification and intergenerational mobility, occupation has long been presumed to reflect lifetime earnings better than do short-term earnings. However, few studies have actually tested this critical assumption. In this study, we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of 20-year accumulated earnings using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal earnings records based on administrative tax information from 1990 to 2009. Fit statistics of regression models are estimated to assess the predictive power of various proxy variables, including occupation, education, and short-term earnings, on cumulative earnings over the 20-year time period. Contrary to the popular assumption in sociology, our results find that cross-sectional earnings have greater predictive power on long-term earnings than occupation-based class classifications, including three-digit detailed occupations for both men and women. The model based on educational attainment, including field of study, has slightly better fit than models based on one-digit occupation or the Erikson, Goldthorpe, and Portocarero class scheme. We discuss the theoretical implications of these findings for the sociology of stratification and intergenerational mobility.

  20. Exploring the performance of the SEDD model to predict sediment yield in eucalyptus plantations. Long-term results from an experimental catchment in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, P.; Cogliandro, V.; Callegari, G.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, long-term sediment yield data, collected in a small (1.38 ha) Calabrian catchment (W2), reafforested with eucalyptus trees (Eucalyptus occidentalis Engl.) are used to validate the performance of the SEdiment Delivery Distributed Model (SEDD) in areas with high erosion rates. At first step, the SEDD model was calibrated using field data collected in previous field campaigns undertaken during the period 1978-1994. This first phase allowed the model calibration parameter β to be calculated using direct measurements of rainfall, runoff, and sediment output. The model was then validated in its calibrated form for an independent period (2006-2016) for which new measurements of rainfall, runoff and sediment output are also available. The analysis, carried out at event and annual scale showed good agreement between measured and predicted values of sediment yield and suggested that the SEDD model can be seen as an appropriate means of evaluating erosion risk associated with manmade plantations in marginal areas. Further work is however required to test the performance of the SEDD model as a prediction tool in different geomorphic contexts.

  1. Thermal Aging Study of a Dow Corning SE 1700 Porous Structure Made by Direct Ink Writing: 1-Year Results and Long-Term Predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Small, Ward [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pearson, Mark A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Maiti, Amitesh [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Metz, Thomas R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Duoss, Eric B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Wilson, Thomas S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-11-13

    Dow Corning SE 1700 (reinforced polydimethylsiloxane) porous structures were made by direct ink writing (DIW). The specimens (~50% porosity) were subjected to various compressive strains (15, 30, 45%) and temperatures (room temperature, 35, 50, 70°C) in a nitrogen atmosphere (active purge) for 1 year. Compression set and load retention of the aged specimens were measured periodically during the study. Compression set increased with strain and temperature. After 1 year, specimens aged at room temperature, 35, and 50°C showed ~10% compression set (relative to the applied compressive deflection), while those aged at 70°C showed 20-40%. Due to the increasing compression set, load retention decreased with temperature, ranging from ~90% at room temperature to ~60-80% at 70°C. Long-term compression set and load retention at room temperature were predicted by applying time-temperature superposition (TTS). The predictions show compression set relative to the compressive deflection will be ~10-15% with ~70-90% load retention after 50 years at 15-45% strain, suggesting the material will continue to be mechanically functional. Comparison of the results to previously acquired data for cellular (M97*, M9760, M9763) and RTV (S5370) silicone foams suggests that the SE 1700 DIW porous specimens are on par with, or outperform, the legacy foams.

  2. Pro B-type natriuretic peptide plasma value: a new criterion for the prediction of short- and long-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Otero, Diego; Trillo-Nouche, Ramiro; Gude, Francisco; Cid-Álvarez, Belen; Ocaranza-Sanchez, Raimundo; Alvarez, Melisa Santas; Lear, Pamela V; Gonzalez-Juanatey, José R

    2013-09-30

    To determine the prognostic value of pro B-type natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP) to predict mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Logistic EuroSCORE (LES) overestimates observed mortality after TAVI. A new risk score specific to TAVI is needed to accurately assess mortality and outcome. Eighty-five patients were included. Indications for TAVI were nonoperable or surgically high-risk patients (LES>20%). Pro-BNP was measured 24h before the procedure. Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate clinical factors. The predictive accuracy of these Cox models was determined by using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Pro-BNP levels (log-transformed) were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors at 30 days (3.36 ± 0.43 vs. 3.81 ± 0.43, p<0.004) and at the end of follow-up (3.34 ± 0.42 vs. 3.63 ± 0.48, p<0.011). Multivariate analysis revealed that only increased log pro-BNP levels were associated with higher mortality rate at short [hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence intervals (CI)]=5.35 (1.74-16.5), p=0.003] and long-term follow-ups [HR=11 (CI: 1.51-81.3), p=0.018]. LES was not associated with increased mortality at either time point [HR=1.03 (CI: 0.95-1.10), p=0.483 and HR=1.03 (CI: 0.98-1.07), p=0.230, respectively]. At 30, 90, 180, and 365 days, the c-index was 0.72 for log pro-BNP and 0.63 for LES (p=0.044). Pre-procedure log transform of plasma pro-BNP levels are an independent and strong predictor of short- and long-term outcomes after TAVI and are more discriminatory than LES. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. [Prognostic prediction of the functional capacity and effectiveness of functional improvement program of the musculoskeletal system among users of preventive care service under long-term care insurance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sone, Toshimasa; Nakaya, Naoki; Tomata, Yasutake; Aida, Jun; Okubo, Ichiro; Ohara, Satoko; Obuchi, Shuichi; Sugiyama, Michiko; Yasumura, Seiji; Suzuki, Takao; Tsuji, Ichiro

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of the Functional Improvement Program of the Musculoskeletal System among users of Preventive Care Service under Long-Term Care Insurance. A total of 3,073 subjects were analyzed. We used the prediction formula to estimate the predicted value of the Kihon Checklist after one year, and calculated the measured value minus the predicted value. The subjects were divided into two groups according to the measured value minus predicted value tertiles: the lowest and middle tertile (good-to-fair measured value) and the highest tertile (poor measured value). We used a multiple logistic regression model to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the good-to-fair measured values of the Kihon Checklist after one year, according to the Functional Improvement Program of the Musculoskeletal System. In potentially dependent elderly, the multivariate adjusted ORs (95% CI) of the good-to-fair measured values were 2.4 (1.3-4.4) for those who attended the program eight times or more in a month (vs those who attended it three times or less in a month), 1.3 (1.0-1.8) for those who engaged in strength training using machines (vs those who did not train), and 1.4 (1.0-1.9) for those who engaged in endurance training. In this study, among potentially dependent elderly, those who attended the program eight times or more in a month and those who engaged in strength training using machines or endurance training showed a significant improvement of their functional capacity.

  4. Short-term Automated Quantification of Radiologic Changes in the Characterization of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Versus Nonspecific Interstitial Pneumonia and Prediction of Long-term Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Giacomi, Federica; Raghunath, Sushravya; Karwoski, Ronald; Bartholmai, Brian J; Moua, Teng

    2018-03-01

    Fibrotic interstitial lung diseases presenting with nonspecific and overlapping radiologic findings may be difficult to diagnose without surgical biopsy. We hypothesized that baseline quantifiable radiologic features and their short-term interval change may be predictive of underlying histologic diagnosis as well as long-term survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) presenting without honeycombing versus nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). Forty biopsy-confirmed IPF and 20 biopsy-confirmed NSIP patients with available high-resolution chest computed tomography 4 to 24 months apart were studied. CALIPER software was used for the automated characterization and quantification of radiologic findings. IPF subjects were older (66 vs. 48; P<0.0001) with lower diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide and higher volumes of baseline reticulation (193 vs. 83 mL; P<0.0001). Over the interval period, compared with NSIP, IPF patients experienced greater functional decline (forced vital capacity, -6.3% vs. -1.7%; P=0.02) and radiologic progression, as noted by greater increase in reticulation volume (24 vs. 1.74 mL; P=0.048), and decrease in normal (-220 vs. -37.7 mL; P=0.045) and total lung volumes (-198 vs. 58.1 mL; P=0.03). Older age, male gender, higher reticulation volumes at baseline, and greater interval decrease in normal lung volumes were predictive of IPF. Both baseline and short-term changes in quantitative radiologic findings were predictive of mortality. Baseline quantitative radiologic findings and assessment of short-term disease progression may help characterize underlying IPF versus NSIP in those with difficult to differentiate clinicoradiologic presentations. Our study supports the possible utility of assessing serial quantifiable high-resolution chest computed tomographic findings for disease differentiation in these 2 entities.

  5. Cardiac metaiodobenzylguanidine activity can predict the long-term efficacy of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or beta-adrenoceptor blockers in patients with heart failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakata, Tomoaki; Wakabayashi, Takeru; Kyuma, Michifumi; Takahashi, Toru; Tsuchihashi, Kazufumi; Shimamoto, Kazuaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan)

    2005-02-01

    Although the benefits of treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and beta-blockers are well known, no method has as yet been established to predict the efficacy of drug therapy. This study tested whether cardiac{sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) activity is of prognostic value and can predict the improvement in heart failure patients resulting from treatment with ACE inhibitors and/or beta-blockers. Following quantification of the heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) of MIBG activity, 88 patients with heart failure who were treated with ACE inhibitors and/or beta-blockers (treated group) and 79 patients with heart failure who were treated conventionally without the aforementioned agents, and who served as controls, were followed up for 43 months with a primary endpoint of cardiac death. The treated group had a significantly lower prevalence of cardiac death and a significantly lower mortality at 5 years compared with the control group (15% vs 37% and 21% vs 42%, p<0.05, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that significant predictors were HMR, age, nitrate use and ventricular tachycardia for the treated group, and HMR, nitrate use and NYHA class for the control group. The drug treatment significantly reduced mortality from 36% to 12% when HMR was 1.53 or more and from 53% to 37% when HMR was less than 1.53. The reduction in risk of mortality within 5 years in patients without a severe MIBG defect (67%) was twice that in patients with such a defect (32%) (p<0.05). The reduction in mortality risk achieved by using ACE inhibitors and/or beta-blockers is associated with the severity of impairment of cardiac MIBG uptake. Cardiac MIBG activity can consequently be of long-term prognostic value in predicting the effectiveness of such treatment in patients with heart failure. (orig.)

  6. Cardiac metaiodobenzylguanidine activity can predict the long-term efficacy of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or beta-adrenoceptor blockers in patients with heart failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakata, Tomoaki; Wakabayashi, Takeru; Kyuma, Michifumi; Takahashi, Toru; Tsuchihashi, Kazufumi; Shimamoto, Kazuaki

    2005-01-01

    Although the benefits of treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and beta-blockers are well known, no method has as yet been established to predict the efficacy of drug therapy. This study tested whether cardiac 123 I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) activity is of prognostic value and can predict the improvement in heart failure patients resulting from treatment with ACE inhibitors and/or beta-blockers. Following quantification of the heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) of MIBG activity, 88 patients with heart failure who were treated with ACE inhibitors and/or beta-blockers (treated group) and 79 patients with heart failure who were treated conventionally without the aforementioned agents, and who served as controls, were followed up for 43 months with a primary endpoint of cardiac death. The treated group had a significantly lower prevalence of cardiac death and a significantly lower mortality at 5 years compared with the control group (15% vs 37% and 21% vs 42%, p<0.05, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that significant predictors were HMR, age, nitrate use and ventricular tachycardia for the treated group, and HMR, nitrate use and NYHA class for the control group. The drug treatment significantly reduced mortality from 36% to 12% when HMR was 1.53 or more and from 53% to 37% when HMR was less than 1.53. The reduction in risk of mortality within 5 years in patients without a severe MIBG defect (67%) was twice that in patients with such a defect (32%) (p<0.05). The reduction in mortality risk achieved by using ACE inhibitors and/or beta-blockers is associated with the severity of impairment of cardiac MIBG uptake. Cardiac MIBG activity can consequently be of long-term prognostic value in predicting the effectiveness of such treatment in patients with heart failure. (orig.)

  7. Long-Term Symbolic Learning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

    2007-01-01

    What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

  8. Validation of the 2015 prostate cancer grade groups for predicting long-term oncologic outcomes in a shared equal-access health system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulman, Ariel A; Howard, Lauren E; Tay, Kae Jack; Tsivian, Efrat; Sze, Christina; Amling, Christopher L; Aronson, William J; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Kane, Christopher J; Terris, Martha K; Freedland, Stephen J; Polascik, Thomas J

    2017-11-01

    A 5-tier prognostic grade group (GG) system was enacted to simplify the risk stratification of patients with prostate cancer in which Gleason scores of ≤6, 3 + 4, 4 + 3, 8, and 9 or 10 are considered GG 1 through 5, respectively. The authors investigated the utility of biopsy GG for predicting long-term oncologic outcomes after radical prostatectomy in an equal-access health system. Men who underwent prostatectomy at 1 of 6 Veterans Affairs hospitals in the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital database between 2005 and 2015 were reviewed. The prognostic ability of biopsy GG was examined using Cox models. Interactions between GG and race also were tested. In total, 2509 men were identified who had data available on biopsy Gleason scores, covariates, and follow-up. The cohort included men with GG 1 (909 patients; 36.2%), GG 2 (813 patients; 32.4%), GG 3 (398 patients; 15.9%), GG 4 (279 patients; 11.1%), and GG 5 (110 patients; 4.4%) prostate cancer. The cohort included 1002 African American men (41%). The median follow-up was 60 months (interquartile range, 33-90 months). Higher GG was associated with higher clinical stage, older age, more recent surgery, and surgical center (P prostate cancer, metastases, and prostate cancer-specific mortality (all P Cancer 2017;123:4122-4129. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  9. Mercaptoacetyltriglycine-3 renogram is not superior to estimated glomerular filtration rate measurement for the prediction of long-term renal function after nephrectomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanamaru, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Masakazu; Nagahama, Kanji

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical usefulness of effective renal plasma flow (ERPF) measured using preoperative mercaptoacetyltriglycine-3 (MAG3) renogram for the prediction of chronic renal insufficiency after nephrectomy. A total of 47 patients underwent preoperative MAG3 renal scintigraphy and subsequent unilateral nephrectomy. Correlations between the 5-year postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the preoperative ERPF of the contralateral kidney (cERPF), ERPF of the diseased kidney (dERPF), total ERPF (tERPF), cERPF to dERPF ratio, serum creatinine (sCr) level, eGFR, as well as the influence of preoperative comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension) on the postoperative eGFR, were evaluated with both univariate and multivariate analyses. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that preoperative cERPF significantly correlated with postoperative eGFR. However, a much stronger correlation was observed between the preoperative and postoperative eGFR. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only preoperative eGFR was a significant predicator of the development of advanced-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). Preoperative MAG3 renogram is not superior to eGFR measurement as a prognostic indicator of long-term renal function after unilateral nephrectomy. (author)

  10. Living on the edge: adaptive and plastic responses of the tree Nothofagus pumilio to a long-term transplant experiment predict rear-edge upward expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathiasen, Paula; Premoli, Andrea C

    2016-06-01

    Current climate change affects the competitive ability and reproductive success of many species, leading to local extinctions, adjustment to novel local conditions by phenotypic plasticity or rapid adaptation, or tracking their optima through range shifts. However, many species have limited ability to expand to suitable areas. Altitudinal gradients, with abrupt changes in abiotic conditions over short distances, represent "natural experiments" for the evaluation of ecological and evolutionary responses under scenarios of climate change. Nothofagus pumilio is the tree species which dominates as pure stands the montane forests of Patagonia. We evaluated the adaptive value of variation in quantitative traits of N. pumilio under contrasting conditions of the altitudinal gradient with a long-term reciprocal transplant experimental design. While high-elevation plants show little response in plant, leaf, and phenological traits to the experimental trials, low-elevation ones show greater plasticity in their responses to changing environments, particularly at high elevation. Our results suggest a relatively reduced potential for evolutionary adaptation of high-elevation genotypes, and a greater evolutionary potential of low-elevation ones. Under global warming scenarios of forest upslope migration, high-elevation variants may be outperformed by low-elevation ones during this process, leading to the local extinction and/or replacement of these genotypes. These results challenge previous models and predictions expected under global warming for altitudinal gradients, on which the leading edge is considered to be the upper treeline forests.

  11. Early weight loss predicts the reduction of obesity in men with erectile dysfunction and hypogonadism undergoing long-term testosterone replacement therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salman, Mahmoud; Yassin, Dany-Jan; Shoukfeh, Huda; Nettleship, Joanne Elisabeth; Yassin, Aksam

    2017-03-01

    We and others have previously shown that testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) results in sustained weight loss in the majority of middle-aged hypogonadal men. Previously, however, a small proportion failed to lose at least 5% of their baseline weight. The reason for this is not yet understood. In the present study, we sought to identify early indicators that may predict successful long-term weight loss, defined as a reduction of at least 5% of total body weight relative to baseline weight (T0), in men with hypogonadism undergoing TRT. Eight parameters measured were assessed as potential predictors of sustained weight loss: loss of 3% or more of baseline weight after 1 year of TU treatment, severe hypogonadism, BMI, waist circumference, International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), glycated hemoglobin (HbA 1C ), age and use of vardenafil. Among the eight measured parameters, three factors were significantly associated with sustained weight loss over the entire period of TU treatment: (1) a loss of 3% of the baseline body weight after 1 year of TRT; (2) baseline BMI over 30; and (3) a waist circumference >102 cm. Age was not a predictor of weight loss.

  12. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  13. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arizzi, Anna, E-mail: anna.arizzi@ouce.ox.ac.uk [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Viles, Heather [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Martín-Sanchez, Inés [Departamento de Microbiología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain); Cultrone, Giuseppe [Departamento de Mineralogía y Petrología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain)

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  14. The predictive value of current haemoglobin levels for incident tuberculosis and/or mortality during long-term antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerkhoff, Andrew D; Wood, Robin; Cobelens, Frank G; Gupta-Wright, Ankur; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Lawn, Stephen D

    2015-04-02

    Low haemoglobin concentrations may be predictive of incident tuberculosis (TB) and death in HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), but data are limited and inconsistent. We examined these relationships retrospectively in a long-term South African ART cohort with multiple time-updated haemoglobin measurements. Prospectively collected clinical data on patients receiving ART for up to 8 years in a community-based cohort were analysed. Time-updated haemoglobin concentrations, CD4 counts and HIV viral loads were recorded, and TB diagnoses and deaths from all causes were ascertained. Anaemia severity was classified using World Health Organization criteria. TB incidence and mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to identify independent predictors of incident TB and mortality, respectively. During a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR, 2.5-5.8) of 1,521 patients, 476 cases of incident TB and 192 deaths occurred during 6,459 person-years (PYs) of follow-up. TB incidence rates were strongly associated with time-updated anaemia severity; those without anaemia had a rate of 4.4 (95%CI, 3.8-5.1) cases/100 PYs compared to 10.0 (95%CI, 8.3-12.1), 26.6 (95%CI, 22.5-31.7) and 87.8 (95%CI, 57.0-138.2) cases/100 PYs in those with mild, moderate and severe anaemia, respectively. Similarly, mortality rates in those with no anaemia or mild, moderate and severe time-updated anaemia were 1.1 (95%CI, 0.8-1.5), 3.5 (95%CI, 2.7-4.8), 11.8 (95%CI, 9.5-14.8) and 28.2 (95%CI, 16.5-51.5) cases/100 PYs, respectively. Moderate and severe anaemia (time-updated) during ART were the strongest independent predictors for incident TB (adjusted IRR = 3.8 [95%CI, 3.0-4.8] and 8.2 [95%CI, 5.3-12.7], respectively) and for mortality (adjusted IRR = 6.0 [95%CI, 3.9-9.2] and adjusted IRR = 8.0 [95%CI, 3.9-16.4], respectively). Increasing severity of anaemia was associated with exceptionally high rates of both incident TB and mortality during

  15. LONG TERM COLLECTIONS

    CERN Multimedia

    STAFF ASSOCIATION

    2010-01-01

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Long-Term Collections (CLT) committee would like to warmly thank its faithful donors who, year after year, support our actions all over the world. Without you, all this would not be possible. We would like to thank, in particular, the CERN Firemen’s Association who donated 5000 CHF in the spring thanks to the sale of their traditional calendar, and the generosity of the CERN community. A huge thank you to the firemen for their devotion to our cause. And thank you to all those who have opened their door, their heart, and their purses! Similarly, we warmly thank the CERN Yoga Club once again for its wonderful donation of 2000 CHF we recently received. We would also like to tell you that all our projects are running well. Just to remind you, we are currently supporting the activities of the «Réflexe-Partage» Association in Mali; the training centre of «Education et Développement» in Abomey, Benin; and the orphanage and ...

  16. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mould, R F; Lederman, M; Tai, P; Wong, J K M

    2002-01-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  17. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  18. Low total cortisol correlates closely with low free cortisol in traumatic brain injury and predicts mortality and long-term hypopituitarism

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hannon, M J

    2011-06-01

    Published data has demonstrated that low 0900h plasma total cortisol (PTC) in the acute phase following traumatic brain injury (TBI) predicts mortality. However, there is concern regarding the use of PTC to evaluate the pituitary-adrenal axis in acutely unwell patients due to potential discrepancies between PTC and plasma free cortisol (PFC) due to variations in corticosteroid binding globulin (CBG). We hypothesised that low PTC would correlate closely with PFC and would predict mortality and long-term hypopituitarism.100 patients (84 men, median age 33, range 18-75) were recruited on admission with TBI (mean GCS+\\/-SD = 8.59+\\/-4.2). Each patient had PTC and CBG measured on days 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 following TBI. Results were compared with 15 patients admitted to ITU following vascular surgery. A PTC <300nmol\\/L in a patient in ITU was regarded clinically as inappropriately low. PFC was calculated for 25% of TBI samples and all control samples using Coolen\\'s equation (1). TBI patients reattended for dynamic pituitary testing >6 months after TBI.All controls had PTC >500 nmol\\/L on day 1, and >300 nmol on days 3–10. By contrast, 78\\/100 TBI patients had at least one PTC <300 nmol\\/L.TBI patients in the lowest quartile of final PTC measurement had the highest mortality (p=0.0187). PTC correlated closely with PFC in both TBI patients (r=0.99, p<0.0001) and controls (r=0.99, p<0.0001). 32\\/79 (40.5%) of TBI survivors attended for dynamic pituitary testing. The median time to dynamic pituitary testing was 14 months (range 6–24 months). 15\\/32 (46.9%) underwent insulin tolerance testing, 9\\/32 (28.1%) underwent glucagon testing and 8\\/32 (25%) underwent short synacthen testing. 6\\/32 (18.8%) were ACTH deficient, of whom 5\\/6 (83.3%) previously had low PTC. 6\\/32 were GH deficient, all of whom previously had low PTC. One patient was gonadotropin deficient; he previously had low PTC. No patients were TSH or prolactin deficient. Overall, 12\\/32 (37

  19. Modelo de previsão de value at risk utilizando volatilidade de longo prazo = Value at Risk prediction model using long term volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Mothé Maia

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Tendo em vista a importância do Value at Risk (VaR como medida de risco para instituições financeiras e agências de risco, o presente estudo avaliou se o modelo ARLS é mais preciso no cálculo do VaR de longo prazo que os modelos tradicionais, dada sua maior adequação para a previsão da volatilidade. Considerando a utilização do VaR pelos agentes de mercado como medida de risco para o gerenciamento de portfólios é importante sua adequada mensuração. A partir de dados diários dos mercados de ações e cambial dos BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul foram calculadas as volatilidades futuras para 15 dias, 1 mês e 3 meses. Em seguida, calculou-se as medidas tradicionais de avaliação da precisão do VaR. Os resultados sugerem a superioridade do modelo ARLS para a previsão da volatilidade cambial, capaz de prever corretamente o número de violações em 33% dos casos, enquanto os modelos tradicionais não obtiveram um bom desempenho. Com relação ao mercado acionário, os modelos GARCH e ARLS apresentaram desempenho similar. O modelo GARCH é superior considerando a perda média quadrática. Esses resultados apontam para a escolha do modelo ARLS no cálculo do VaR de portfólios cambiais devido a maior precisão alcançada. Ajuda assim os agentes de mercado a melhor gerirem o risco de suas carteiras. Em relação ao mercado acionário, em função do desempenho similar dos modelos GARCH e ARLS, o modelo GARCH é o mais indicado devido a sua maior simplicidade e fácil implementação computacional. Having in mind the importance of Value at Risk (VaR as a risk measure for financial institutions and rating agencies, this study evaluated whether the ARLS model is more accurate in the calculation of the long term VaR than the traditional models, considering it is more appropriate for predicting the long-term volatility. Due to the fact that VaR s being used for market players as a measure of risk for the portfolio

  20. Long-term intravenous administration of carboxylated single-walled carbon nanotubes induces persistent accumulation in the lungs and pulmonary fibrosis via the nuclear factor-kappa B pathway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin Y

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Yue Qin,1,* Suning Li,2,* Gan Zhao,2,* Xuanhao Fu,1 Xueping Xie,1 Yiyi Huang,1 Xiaojing Cheng,3 Jinbin Wei,1 Huagang Liu,1 Zefeng Lai1 1Pharmaceutical College, Guangxi Medical University, 2Department of Pharmacy, The Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, 3Life Sciences Institute, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: Numerous studies have demonstrated promising application of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs in drug delivery, diagnosis, and targeted therapy. However, the adverse health effects resulting from intravenous injection of SWNTs are not completely understood. Studies have shown that levels of “pristine” or carboxylated carbon nanotubes are very high in mouse lungs after intravenous injection. We hypothesized that long-term and repeated intravenous administration of carboxylated SWNTs (c-SWNTs can result in persistent accumulation and induce histopathologic changes in rat lungs. Here, c-SWNTs were administered repeatedly to rats via tail-vein injection for 90 days. Long-term intravenous injection of c-SWNTs caused sustained embolization in lung capillaries and granuloma formation. It also induced a persistent inflammatory response that was regulated by the nuclear factor-kappa B signaling pathway, and which resulted in pulmonary fibrogenesis. c-SWNTs trapped within lung capillaries traversed capillary walls and injured alveolar epithelial cells, thereby stimulating production of pro-inflammatory cytokines (tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-1 beta and pro-fibrotic growth factors (transforming growth factor-beta 1. Protein levels of type-I and type-III collagens, matrix metalloproteinase-2, and the tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 were upregulated after intravenous exposure to c-SWNTs as determined by immunohistochemical assays and Western blotting, which suggested collagen deposition

  1. Predicting Long-term Ischemic Events Using Routine Clinical Parameters in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: The OPT-CAD Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yaling; Chen, Jiyan; Qiu, Miaohan; Li, Yi; Li, Jing; Feng, Yingqing; Qiu, Jian; Meng, Liang; Sun, Yihong; Tao, Guizhou; Wu, Zhaohui; Yang, Chunyu; Guo, Jincheng; Pu, Kui; Chen, Shaoliang; Wang, Xiaozeng

    2018-06-05

    The prognosis of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) at hospital discharge was constantly varying, and post-discharge risk of ischemic events remain a concern. However, risk prediction tools to identify risk of ischemia for these patients has not yet been reported. We sought to develop a scoring system for predicting long-term ischemic events in CAD patients receiving antiplatelet therapy that would be beneficial in appropriate personalized decision-making for these patients. In this prospective Optimal antiPlatelet Therapy for Chinese patients with Coronary Artery Disease (OPT-CAD, NCT01735305) registry, a total of 14,032 patients with CAD receiving at least one kind of antiplatelet agent were enrolled from 107 centers across China, from January 2012 to March 2014. The risk scoring system was developed in a derivation cohort (enrolled initially 10,000 patients in the database) using a logistic regression model and was subsequently tested in a validation cohort (the last 4,032 patients). Points in risk score was assigned based on the multivariable odds ratio of each factor. Ischemic events were defined as the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction or stroke. Ischemic events occurred in 342 (3.4%) patients in the derivation cohort and 160 (4.0%) patients in the validation cohort during 1-year follow-up. The OPT-CAD score, ranging from 0-257 points, consist of 10 independent risk factors, including age (0-71 points), heart rates (0-36 points), hypertension (0-20 points), prior myocardial infarction (16 points), prior stroke (16 points), renal insufficient (21 points), anemia (19 points), low ejection fraction (22 points), positive cardiac troponin (23 points) and ST-segment deviation (13 points). In predicting 1-year ischemic events, the area under receiver operating characteristics curve were 0.73 and 0.72 in derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The incidences of ischemic events in low- (0-90 points), medium- (91-150 points) and

  2. Long-Term Clinical Outcomes and Factors That Predict Poor Prognosis in Athletes After a Diagnosis of Acute Spondylolysis: A Retrospective Review With Telephone Follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selhorst, Mitchell; Fischer, Anastasia; Graft, Kristine; Ravindran, Reno; Peters, Eric; Rodenberg, Richard; MacDonald, James

    2016-12-01

    Study Design Retrospective review with telephone follow-up. Background Acute spondylolytic injuries have a dramatic impact on the young athlete. Excellent short-term clinical outcomes have been observed, but not enough is known about long-term clinical outcomes. Objectives (1) To report long-term clinical outcomes for patients diagnosed with acute spondylolysis, and (2) to assess the prognostic ability of retrospective variables for long-term outcomes. Methods Patients from 2010 through 2013 were retrospectively reviewed to identify patients and to obtain demographic, baseline, and short-term outcomes. Long-term follow-up data were collected by telephone from patients diagnosed with acute spondylolysis to assess recurrence rate of low back pain, perceived outcome, pain, and functional ability. Patients were categorized as having a good or poor long-term outcome based on these measures. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic ability of the retrospective variables for long-term outcomes 3.4 years (range, 1.5-5.6 years) after treatment. Results One hundred twenty-one (71.6%) patients completed the follow-up questionnaire (48 female; mean age at baseline, 14.4 years). At follow-up, 81 (66.9%) patients were able to maintain their same or a higher level of sport. Recurrence of significant symptoms was reported by 55 (45.5%) patients, with 41 (33.9%) requiring medical treatment. The final logistic regression model revealed that female sex, adverse reaction during care, and multilevel injury were significant predictors of poor long-term outcome (R 2 = 0.22). Conclusion Although excellent short-term outcomes were noted, 42% of patients reported a poor outcome at long-term follow-up. Female sex, multilevel injury, and experiencing an adverse reaction during care were significant predictors of poor long-term clinical outcome for patients diagnosed with acute spondylolysis. Level of Evidence Prognosis, level 4. Registered January 15, 2015 at www

  3. Long-term outcome after neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy in locally advanced noninflammatory breast cancer and predictive factors for a pathologic complete remission. Results of a multivariate analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matuschek, C.; Boelke, E.; Roth, S.L.

    2012-01-01

    An earlier published series of neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy (NRT-CHX) in locally advanced noninflammatory breast cancer (LABC) has now been updated with a follow-up of more than 15 years. Long-term outcome data and predictive factors for pathologic complete response (pCR) were analyzed. Patients and methods: During 1991-1998, 315 LABC patients (cT1-cT4/cN0-N1) were treated with NRT-CHX. Preoperative radiotherapy (RT) consisted of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) of 50 Gy (5 x 2 Gy/week) to the breast and the supra-/infraclavicular lymph nodes combined with an electron boost in 214 cases afterwards or - in case of breast conservation - a 10-Gy interstitial boost with 192 Ir afterloading before EBRT. Chemotherapy was administered prior to RT in 192 patients, and concomitantly in 113; 10 patients received no chemotherapy. The update of all follow-up ended in November 2011. Age, tumor grade, nodal status, hormone receptor status, simultaneous vs. sequential CHX, and the time interval between end of RT and surgery were examined in multivariate terms with pCR and overall survival as end point. Results: The total pCR rate after neoadjuvant RT-CHX reached 29.2%, with LABC breast conservation becoming possible in 50.8% of cases. In initially node-positive cases (cN+), a complete nodal response (pN0) after NRT-CHX was observed in 56% (89/159). The multivariate analysis revealed that a longer time interval to surgery increased the probability for a pCR (HR 1.17 [95% CI 1.05-1.31], p 2 months) increases the probability of pCR after NRT-CHX. (orig.)

  4. Is it possible to predict long-term success with k-NN? Case study of four market indices (FTSE100, DAX, HANGSENG, NASDAQ)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, Y; Gorban, A N; Yang, T Y

    2014-01-01

    This case study tests the possibility of prediction for 'success' (or 'winner') components of four stock and shares market indices in a time period of three years from 02-Jul-2009 to 29-Jun-2012.We compare their performance ain two time frames: initial frame three months at the beginning (02/06/2009-30/09/2009) and the final three month frame (02/04/2012-29/06/2012).To label the components, average price ratio between two time frames in descending order is computed. The average price ratio is defined as the ratio between the mean prices of the beginning and final time period. The 'winner' components are referred to the top one third of total components in the same order as average price ratio it means the mean price of final time period is relatively higher than the beginning time period. The 'loser' components are referred to the last one third of total components in the same order as they have higher mean prices of beginning time period. We analyse, is there any information about the winner-looser separation in the initial fragments of the daily closing prices log-returns time series.The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation with k-NN algorithm is applied on the daily log-return of components using a distance and proximity in the experiment. By looking at the error analysis, it shows that for HANGSENG and DAX index, there are clear signs of possibility to evaluate the probability of long-term success. The correlation distance matrix histograms and 2-D/3-D elastic maps generated from ViDaExpert show that the 'winner' components are closer to each other and 'winner'/'loser' components are separable on elastic maps for HANGSENG and DAX index while for the negative possibility indices, there is no sign of separation

  5. Plasma stromal cell-derived factor 1α/CXCL12 level predicts long-term adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghasemzadeh, Nima; Hritani, Abdul Wahab; De Staercke, Christine; Eapen, Danny J; Veledar, Emir; Al Kassem, Hatem; Khayata, Mohamed; Zafari, A Maziar; Sperling, Laurence; Hooper, Craig; Vaccarino, Viola; Mavromatis, Kreton; Quyyumi, Arshed A

    2015-01-01

    Stromal derived factor-1α/CXCL12 is a chemoattractant responsible for homing of progenitor cells to ischemic tissues. We aimed to investigate the association of plasma CXCL12 with long-term cardiovascular outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). 785 patients aged: 63 ± 12 undergoing coronary angiography were independently enrolled into discovery (N = 186) and replication (N = 599) cohorts. Baseline levels of plasma CXCL12 were measured using Quantikine CXCL12 ELISA assay (R&D systems). Patients were followed for cardiovascular death and/or myocardial infarction (MI) for a mean of 2.6 yrs. Cox proportional hazard was used to determine independent predictors of cardiovascular death/MI. The incidence of cardiovascular death/MI was 13% (N = 99). High CXCL12 level based on best discriminatory threshold derived from the ROC analysis predicted risk of cardiovascular death/MI (HR = 4.81, p = 1 × 10(-6)) independent of traditional risk factors in the pooled cohort. Addition of CXCL12 to a baseline model was associated with a significant improvement in c-statistic (AUC: 0.67-0.73, p = 0.03). Addition of CXCL12 was associated with correct risk reclassification of 40% of events and 10.5% of non-events. Similarly for the outcome of cardiovascular death, the addition of the CXCL12 to the baseline model was associated with correct reclassification of 20.7% of events and 9% of non-events. These results were replicated in two independent cohorts. Plasma CXCL12 level is a strong independent predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with CAD and improves risk reclassification. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Long-term dependence in exchange rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Karytinos

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which exchange rates of four major currencies against the Greek Drachma exhibit long-term dependence is investigated using a R/S analysis testing framework. We show that both classic R/S analysis and the modified R/S statistic if enhanced by bootstrapping techniques can be proven very reliable tools to this end. Our findings support persistence and long-term dependence with non-periodic cycles for the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc series. In addition a noisy chaos explanation is favored over fractional Brownian motion. On the contrary, the US Dollar and British Pound were found to exhibit a much more random behavior and lack of any long-term structure.

  7. Accessibility Long Term Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kay Axhausen

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Improved accessibility and its correlate lower generalized cost of contact, travel and transport have been sought by dynamic human societies for their economic and social benefits through- out recorded history. The paper will reflect about this process at a number of different spatial and temporal scales based on a conceptual model. Looking back at European history, it will trace the interaction between Christaller's logic of local market areas and the idea of (low contact cost network cities. Focusing on Switzerland since 1950 it will show how network investment changed the relative distribution of population and employment and how this interacted with changes in the preferences of the travelers. Using a recent snapshot of how a substantial sample of Swiss maintain their social networks over often very large areas, it will try to answer the question of what will happen in the future, if the current trend of ever lower costs of contact will persist.

  8. Prediction of long-term properties of by-products - Technical and environmental properties in roads; Foerutsaegelse av laangtidsegenskaper hos restprodukter - Teknik och miljoe i vaegar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arm, Maria; Suer, Pascal; Arvidsson, Haakan; Lindqvist, Jan-Erik; Frogner-Kockum, Paul; Larsson, Lennart; Toomvaeli, Cecilia

    2008-12-15

    In Sweden, use of industrial by-products is still hindered by concern for their long-term properties. This report describes a three-year research project aiming to: - Identify the key processes of ageing related to the usefulness of by-products in roads; - investigate the consequences of these processes for technical and environmental properties of the by-products, and - propose a method for accelerated ageing to predict the long-term properties. The project has compared naturally aged samples of two by-products used as sub-bases in existing asphalt paved roads with samples of fresh by-products from producers' piles. Steel slag of electric arc furnace type and municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) bottom ash was chosen. The samples were thoroughly characterized in order to identify which ageing processes had been crucial. The following properties were studied: grain size distribution, water content, compaction properties, deformation properties according to cyclic load triaxial tests, mineralogy and micro structure according to SEM and XRD, chemical composition, pH and leaching properties. For the bottom ash also organic content and electric conductivity was studied. Furthermore the pH was mapped in both roads and the conductivity was mapped in the bottom ash road. The working hypothesis was that ageing processes lead to changes in pH, effective particle size and mineralogy, which in turn determine leaching, stiffness and stability of the material. The test results confirmed that the pavement edge material is ageing faster than the road centre material is. In addition it was concluded that: - Steel slag from the pavement edge showed traces of carbonation and leaching processes, whereas slag from the road centre was identical to fresh slag. - Bottom ash from the pavement edge was more aged than bottom ash from the road centre. However, no difference in pH was found, instead the differences were said to be caused by differences in water exposure. - Water

  9. Long-term observations of cloud condensation nuclei in the Amazon rain forest – Part 1: Aerosol size distribution, hygroscopicity, and new model parametrizations for CCN prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Pöhlker

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Size-resolved long-term measurements of atmospheric aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN concentrations and hygroscopicity were conducted at the remote Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO in the central Amazon Basin over a 1-year period and full seasonal cycle (March 2014–February 2015. The measurements provide a climatology of CCN properties characteristic of a remote central Amazonian rain forest site.The CCN measurements were continuously cycled through 10 levels of supersaturation (S  =  0.11 to 1.10 % and span the aerosol particle size range from 20 to 245 nm. The mean critical diameters of CCN activation range from 43 nm at S  =  1.10 % to 172 nm at S  =  0.11 %. The particle hygroscopicity exhibits a pronounced size dependence with lower values for the Aitken mode (κAit  =  0.14 ± 0.03, higher values for the accumulation mode (κAcc  =  0.22 ± 0.05, and an overall mean value of κmean  =  0.17 ± 0.06, consistent with high fractions of organic aerosol.The hygroscopicity parameter, κ, exhibits remarkably little temporal variability: no pronounced diurnal cycles, only weak seasonal trends, and few short-term variations during long-range transport events. In contrast, the CCN number concentrations exhibit a pronounced seasonal cycle, tracking the pollution-related seasonality in total aerosol concentration. We find that the variability in the CCN concentrations in the central Amazon is mostly driven by aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution, while variations in aerosol hygroscopicity and chemical composition matter only during a few episodes.For modeling purposes, we compare different approaches of predicting CCN number concentration and present a novel parametrization, which allows accurate CCN predictions based on a small set of input data.

  10. Long-term competence restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Douglas R; DeYoung, Nathaniel J

    2014-01-01

    While the United States Supreme Court's Jackson v. Indiana decision and most state statutes mandate determinations of incompetent defendants' restoration probabilities, courts and forensic clinicians continue to lack empirical evidence to guide these determinations and do not yet have a consensus regarding whether and under what circumstances incompetent defendants are restorable. The evidence base concerning the restoration likelihood of those defendants who fail initial restoration efforts is even further diminished and has largely gone unstudied. In this study, we examined the disposition of a cohort of defendants who underwent long-term competence restoration efforts (greater than six months) and identified factors related to whether these defendants were able to attain restoration and adjudicative success. Approximately two-thirds (n = 52) of the 81 individuals undergoing extended restoration efforts were eventually deemed restored to competence. Lengths of hospitalization until successful restoration are presented with implications for the reasonable length of time that restoration efforts should persist. Older individuals were less likely to be restored and successfully adjudicated, and individuals with more severe charges and greater factual legal understanding were more likely to be restored and adjudicated. The significance of these findings for courts and forensic clinicians is discussed.

  11. Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Sidharth

    2014-01-01

    Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

  12. Long-term predictive assessments of solar and geomagnetic activities made on the basis of the close similarity between the solar inertial motions in the intervals 1840–1905 and 1980–2045

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Charvátová, Ivanka

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 1 (2009), s. 25-30 ISSN 1384-1076 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA300120608 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : solar inertial motion * solar activity * geomagnetic activity * long-term predictive assessments Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 1.675, year: 2009

  13. Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT[R] Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average. ACT Research Report Series, 2012 (5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

    2012-01-01

    This study compared the effectiveness of ACT[R] Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours earned), degree completion, and cumulative grade point average (GPA) at 150% of normal time to degree…

  14. An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

  15. Using Psychodynamic, Cognitive Behavioral, and Control Mastery Prototypes to Predict Change: A New Look at an Old Paradigm for Long-Term Single-Case Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pole, Nnamdi; Ablon, J. Stuart; O'Connor, Lynn E.

    2008-01-01

    This article illustrates a method of testing models of change in individual long-term psychotherapy cases. A depressed client was treated with 208 sessions of control mastery therapy (CMT), an unmanualized approach that integrates elements of psychodynamic therapy (PDT) and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Panels of experts developed prototypes…

  16. A combination of troponin T and 12-lead electrocardiography: a valuable tool for early prediction of long-term mortality in patients with chest pain without ST-segment elevation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernberg, Tomas; Lindahl, Bertil

    2002-11-01

    Electrocardiography (ECG) obtained on admission and a troponin T (tn-T) level measured early after admission are simple and accessible methods for predicting outcome in patients with suspected unstable angina or myocardial infarction without persistent ST-elevations. However, there are few studies about the combination of these 2 methods as a means of predicting long-term outcome. ECG was obtained on admission, and a tn-T level was analyzed on admission and after 6 hours in 710 consecutive patients admitted because of chest pain and no ST-elevations. Patients were observed for a median time of 40 months for death. ST-segment depressions > or =0.05 mV were present in 266 patients (37%). These patients had a 9.7-fold increased risk of death, compared with patients with normal ECG results. Isolated T-Wave inversions or pathological signs other than ST-T changes were present in 196 patients (28%), who had a 4.5-fold increased risk of death compared with patients who had normal ECG results. At 6 hours after admission, 169 patients (24%) had at least 1 sample of tn-T > or =0.10 microg/L, which resulted in an 3.7-fold increased risk of death. In a multivariate analysis, both ECG on admission and tn-T level came out as independent predictors of outcome. When these methods were combined, patients could be divided into low- (tn-T level or =0.10 microg/L or ST-segment depression), and high-risk groups (tn-T level > or =0.10 microg/L and ST-segment depression). ECG and tn-T level are valuable tools to quickly risk stratify patients with chest pain. The combination of these methods is superior to either one alone.

  17. The necessity for complex long-term predictions while designing systems for disposal of radwaste and role of those predictions in development of programs for environment protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kedrovsky, O.L.; Schishitz, I.Y.

    1993-01-01

    Development of nuclear power in the future depends on solving two problems: creation of safe reactors; and reliable isolation of radwaste formed during all stages of the nuclear-fuel-cycle. The peculiarity of the second problem consists of the fact that considerable financial expenses are necessary for its decision. The range of the problem is characterized by the predictions of waste accumulation according to which summary activity of those materials (by the year 2000) will come up to 6 x 10 10 mCu. To successfully solve the radwaste isolation problem on the governmental level, it is necessary to formulate the corresponding regulation system. The main task of development of geological aspects of radwaste isolation consists of elimination of dangerous situations, reaching minimum damage effect, and development of a system for hydromonitoring, which includes blocks for search and standard prediction. The paper discusses the activities being carried out in Russia to solve the problems of radwaste disposal

  18. Optimal long-term contracting with learning

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zhiguo; Wei, Bin; Yu, Jianfeng; Gao, Feng

    2016-01-01

    We introduce uncertainty into Holmstrom and Milgrom (1987) to study optimal long-term contracting with learning. In a dynamic relationship, the agent's shirking not only reduces current performance but also increases the agent's information rent due to the persistent belief manipulation effect. We characterize the optimal contract using the dynamic programming technique in which information rent is the unique state variable. In the optimal contract, the optimal effort is front-loaded and decr...

  19. Long-term urethral catheterisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

    This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

  20. Predicting the long-term (137)Cs distribution in Fukushima after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident: a parameter sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Kitamura, Akihiro; Oda, Yoshihiro; Onishi, Yasuo

    2014-09-01

    Radioactive materials deposited on the land surface of Fukushima Prefecture from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant explosion is a crucial issue for a number of reasons, including external and internal radiation exposure and impacts on agricultural environments and aquatic biota. Predicting the future distribution of radioactive materials and their fates is therefore indispensable for evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of remediation options regarding human health and the environment. Cesium-137, the main radionuclide to be focused on, is well known to adsorb to clay-rich soils; therefore its primary transportation mechanism is in the form of soil erosion on the land surface and transport of sediment-sorbed contaminants in the water system. In this study, we applied the Soil and Cesium Transport model, which we have developed, to predict a long-term cesium distribution in the Fukushima area, based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation and simple sediment discharge formulas. The model consists of calculation schemes of soil erosion, transportation and deposition, as well as cesium transport and its future distribution. Since not all the actual data on parameters is available, a number of sensitivity analyses were conducted here to find the range of the output results due to the uncertainties of parameters. The preliminary calculation indicated that a large amount of total soil loss remained in slope, and the residual sediment was transported to rivers, deposited in rivers and lakes, or transported farther downstream to the river mouths. Most of the sediment deposited in rivers and lakes consists of sand. On the other hand, most of the silt and clay portions transported to river were transported downstream to the river mouths. The rate of sediment deposition in the Abukuma River basin was three times as high as those of the other 13 river basins. This may be due to the larger catchment area and more moderate channel slope of the Abukuma River basin

  1. Long-term Relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hémous, David; Olsen, Morten

    2017-01-01

    In the 1980s the Japanese “keiretsu” system of interconnected business groups was praised as a model to emulate, but since then Japan has often been criticized for being less innovative than the United States. In this paper we connect the two views and argue that tight business relationships can...... suppliers and start cooperation immediately with new suppliers. We first consider broad innovations: every period, one supplier has the opportunity to create a higher quality input that can be used by all producers. Since relationships are harder to break in the cooperative equilibrium the market size...... for potential innovators is smaller and the rate of innovation might be lower than in the noncooperative equilibrium. We contrast this with a setting with relationship-specific innovations that we show are encouraged by the establishment of relational contracts. We illustrate the predictions of the model using...

  2. An acute fall in estimated glomerular filtration rate during treatment with losartan predicts a slower decrease in long-term renal function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtkamp, Frank A; de Zeeuw, Dick; Thomas, Merlin C

    2011-01-01

    initial fall in eGFR had a significant lower long-term eGFR slope compared to those with a moderate fall or rise. This relationship was independent of other risk markers or change in risk markers for progression of renal disease such as blood pressure and albuminuria. Thus, the greater the acute fall in e......Intervention in the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system (RAAS) is associated with slowing the progressive loss of renal function. During initiation of therapy, however, there may be an acute fall in glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We tested whether this initial fall in GFR reflects a renal...... a significantly greater acute fall in estimated (eGFR) during the first 3 months compared to patients assigned to placebo, but a significantly slower long-term mean decline of eGFR thereafter. A large interindividual difference, however, was noticed in the acute eGFR change. When patients were divided...

  3. Poor fine-motor and visuospatial skills predict persistence of pediatric-onset obsessive-compulsive disorder into adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloch, Michael H; Sukhodolsky, Denis G; Dombrowski, Philip A; Panza, Kaitlyn E; Craiglow, Brittany G; Landeros-Weisenberger, Angeli; Leckman, James F; Peterson, Bradley S; Schultz, Robert T

    2011-09-01

    Half of pediatric-onset OCD cases remit by adulthood. Studies have demonstrated that initial response to pharmacotherapy, age of onset, prominent hoarding symptoms, and the presence of comorbid tic disorders are associated with long-term outcome. Our goal was to examine the association between childhood performance on neuropsychological testing and persistence of OCD into adulthood. Twenty-four children with OCD were followed for an average of 7.5 years into early adulthood. Neuropsychological performance in childhood (childhood performance on the Purdue pegboard task and the block design subscale of WISC-III was associated with persistence of OCD symptoms into adulthood. IQ, VMI, and nonverbal memory performance did not predict significantly the persistence of OCD. These results suggest that visuospatial and fine-motor skill deficits are predictive of poor long-term outcome in pediatric-onset OCD. Future longitudinal studies are needed to chart the course of these deficits relative to the course of symptoms in OCD and to determine whether the association of these neuropsychiatric deficits with long-term outcome is specific to pediatric-onset OCD or generalizes to other psychiatric disorders. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  4. Short- and long-term eating habit modification predict weight change in overweight, post-menopausal women: results from the WOMAN Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Bethany Barone; Kinzel, Laura S.; Gabriel, Kelley Pettee; Chang, Yue-fang; Kuller, Lewis H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors, rather than caloric intake, may be an alternative strategy. Furthermore, important behaviors might differ for short- vs. long-term weight control. Objective To describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months Design Secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up Participants 465 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study Main outcome measures Changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Statistical analyses performed Linear regression models examined the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. Results At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (pstudies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. PMID:22939439

  5. Prediction of long-term influence of ONKALO and Korvensuo reservoir on groundwater level and water balance components on Olkiluoto island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2010-08-01

    The Olkiluoto surface hydrological model was used to compute the influence of various ONKALO leakage scenarios on changes in groundwater level in overburden soils and hydraulic heads in the bedrock. Moreover, the model effect of ONKALO leakages on water balance components of the Olkiluoto Island (runoff, evapotranspiration, discharge to the sea area through the bedrock and discharge from the Korvensuo reservoir) and on the thickness and area of unsaturated bedrock layer were computed. Leakages into ONKALO lower the groundwater level in overburden soils especially during those years when precipitation is smaller than the long-term average value 550 mm a -1 . According to model results groundwater level can be below sea level if leakage rate into ONKALO is 180 l/min or more. If leakage rate is smaller than 180 l/min groundwater level is above sea level all the time also during dry years. The modelling results show that there are local water divides inside the island both on the southern and northern side of ONKALO at all time points and for all leakage rates. The local water divides ensure that sea water cannot intrude to ONKALO via surface waters. A more detailed version of the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model was developed for the area around the infiltration experiment. Site scale data were available for the location of the most transmissive hydrogeological zones. The analysis of hydraulic responses has shown that there are local connections between different areas around the pumping drillhole OL-KR14. The importance of the local responses was verified by an additional small hydrogeological zone HZInf connecting HZ19A, HZ19C, OL-KR14, OL-PP66, OL-PP68 and OL-PP69 that was added to the model. In future studies it is necessary to describe the local zones explicitly in the model to allow more realistic flow simulations. Discharge has been measured manually in four measuring weirs since March 2003. The old V-shaped measuring weirs were replaced by new automatic

  6. Long-Term Prognosis of Plantar Fasciitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Liselotte; Krogh, Thøger Persson; Ellingsen, Torkell

    2018-01-01

    , exercise-induced symptoms, bilateral heel pain, fascia thickness, and presence of a heel spur) could predict long-term outcomes, (3) to assess the long-term ultrasound (US) development in the fascia, and (4) to assess whether US-guided corticosteroid injections induce atrophy of the heel fat pad. Study....... The risk was significantly greater for women (P heel...... regardless of symptoms and had no impact on prognosis, and neither did the presence of a heel spur. Only 24% of asymptomatic patients had a normal fascia on US at long-term follow-up. A US-guided corticosteroid injection did not cause atrophy of the heel fat pad. Our observational study did not allow us...

  7. Bed-side inferior vena cava diameter and mean arterial pressure predict long-term mortality in hospitalized patients with heart failure: 36 months of follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Daniele; Cuttitta, Francesco; Paterna, Salvatore; Garofano, Alessandro; Conti, Giosafat; Pinto, Antonio; Parrinello, Gaspare

    2016-03-01

    In discharged patients with heart failure (HF), diverse conditions can intervene to worsen outcome. We would investigate whether such factors present on hospital admission can affect long-term mortality in subjects hospitalized for acute HF. One hundred twenty-three consecutive patients hospitalized for acute HF (mean age 74.8 years; 57% female) were recruited and followed for 36 months after hospitalization. At multivariate Cox model, only inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter and mean arterial pressure (MAP) registered bed-side on admission, resulted, after correction for all confounders factors, the sole factors significantly associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality in long-term (HR 1.06, p=0.0057; HR 0.97, p=0.0218; respectively). Study population was subdivided according to median values of IVC diameter (23 mm) and MAP (93.3 mm Hg). The Kaplan–Meier curve showed that HF patients with both IVC ≥ 23 mm and MAP b93.3 mm Hg on admission had reduced probability of survival free from all-cause death (log rank p = 0.0070 and log rank p = 0.0028, respectively). In patients hospitalized for acute HF, IVC diameter, measured by hand-carried ultrasound (HCU), and MAP detected on admission are strong predictors of long-term all-cause mortality. The data suggest the need for a careful clinical-therapeutic surveillance on these patients during the post-discharge period. IVC diameter and MAP can be utilized as parameters to stratify prognosis on admission and to be supervised during follow-up. Copyright © 2015 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Happiness and life satisfaction prospectively predict self-rated health, physical health, and the presence of limiting, long-term health conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siahpush, Mohammad; Spittal, Matt; Singh, Gopal K

    2008-01-01

    To examine the effect of happiness and life satisfaction on health. Longitudinal data from waves 1 and 3, conducted in 2001 and 2004, respectively, of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. Australia. A total of 9981 respondents aged 18 years and older. Outcomes were self-reported health; the absence of long-term, limiting health conditions; and physical health. Happiness was assessed with the following question: "During the past 4 weeks, have you been a happy person"? Life satisfaction was determined with the following question: "All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life"? We used multiple regression analysis to estimate odds ratios (ORs), beta coefficients (beta), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between baseline happiness or life satisfaction and health at wave 3. Baseline happiness and life satisfaction both were positively associated at wave 3 with excellent, very good, or good health (OR = 1.50, CI = 1.33-1.70, p < .0001; and OR = 1.62, CI = 1.27-2.08, p < .0001, respectively); with the absence of long-term, limiting health conditions (OR = 1.53, CI = 1.35-1.75, p < .0001; and OR = 1.51, CI = 1.25-1.82, p < .0001, respectively); and with higher physical health levels (beta = .99, CI = .60-1.39, p < .0001; and beta = .99, CI = .20-1.78, p < .0145, respectively). This study showed that happier people and those who were more satisfied with their lives at baseline reported better health (self-rated health; absence of limiting, long-term conditions; and physical health) at the 2-year follow-up when adjusted for baseline health and other relevant covariates.

  9. Does computer use pose a hazard for future long-term sickness absence?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Johan Hviid; Mikkelsen, Sigurd

    2010-01-01

    . The hazard ratio for sickness absence with weekly increase of one hour in computer use was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.00). Low satisfaction with work place arrangements and female gender both doubled the risk of sickness absence.We have earlier found that computer use did not predict persistent pain in the neck...... and upper limb, and it seems that computer use neither predicts future long-term sickness absence of all causes....

  10. Long term complications of diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000327.htm Long-term complications of diabetes To use the sharing features on this page, ... other tests. All these may help you keep complications of diabetes away. You will need to check your blood ...

  11. Two-liquid-phase system: A promising technique for predicting bioavailability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in long-term contaminated soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Congying; Wang, Ziyu; Li, Zengbo; Ahmad, Riaz

    2017-02-01

    A two-liquid-phase system (TLPS), which consisted of soil slurry and silicone oil, was employed to extract polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in four long-term contaminated soils in order to assess the bioavailability of PAHs. Extraction kinetics of six PAHs viz. phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene, benzo(a)anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, dibenzo(a,h)anthrancene were selected to investigate as they covered the susceptible and recalcitrant PAHs in soil. A parallel experiments were also carried out on the microbial degradation of these PAHs in soil with and without biostimulation (by adding (NH 4 ) 2 HPO 4 ). The rapidly desorbed fraction of fluoranthene, as indicated by the two-fraction model, was found the highest, ranging from 21.4% to 37.4%, whereas dibenzo(a,h)anthrancene was the lowest, ranging from 8.9% to 20.5%. The rapid desorption of selected PAHs was found to be finished within 24 h. The rapidly desorbed fraction of PAHs investigated using TLPS, was significantly correlated (R 2  = 0.95) with that degraded by microorganisms in biostimulation treatment. This suggested that the TLPS-assisted extraction could be a promising technique in determining the bioavailability of aged PAHs in contaminated soils. It also suggested that applying sufficient nutrients in bioremediation of field contaminated soils is crucial. Further work is required to test its application to more hydrophobic organic pollutants in long-term contaminated soils. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Long-term progress prediction for the carbon steel corrosion in diluted artificial seawater with and without zinc / sodium carbonate mixed phosphate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujii, Kazumi; Ishioka, Shinichi; Iwanami, Masaru; Kaneko, Tetsuji; Tanaka, Norihiko; Kawaharada, Yoshiyuki; Yokoyama, Yutaka; Umehara, Ryuji; Kato, Chiaki; Ueno, Fumiyoshi; Fukaya, Yuichi; Kumaga, Katsuhiko

    2017-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants (1F) were damaged by an unprecedented severe accident in the great east Japan earthquake on 11th, March, 2011, and seawater and fresh water were injected as an emergency countermeasure for the core cooling. The primary containment vessels (PCVs), made of carbon steel, were exposed to seawater and fresh water, and have had the possibility of corrosion. The PCVs of 1F are the most important equipment for the core cooling and removal of the fuel debris, the structural integrity of the PCV must be maintained until decommissioning. Therefore, evaluation of PCV carbon steel corrosion behavior is important, as well as evaluation of corrosion inhibitors as one of the corrosion protection methods. In this study, long-term immersion corrosion tests for up to 10000 hours were performed in diluted artificial seawater simulating 1F with and without zinc / sodium carbonate mixed phosphate. Based on the long-term immersion corrosion test results, diagnosis method of the reduction in plate thickness of the nuclear vessel was examined. The validity of the existing corrosion progress models following parabolic rate law was confirmed. The corrosion progress models were also applicable to the corrosion inhibited condition adding zinc / sodium carbonate mixed phosphate. It was found that the corrosion rate of carbon steel drastically fell down by adding this corrosion inhibitor. (author)

  13. [Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plancke, L; Amariei, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

  14. The prediction of the level of personality organization on reduction of psychiatric symptoms and improvement of work ability in short- versus long-term psychotherapies during a 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi; Keinänen, Matti; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa; Härkänen, Tommi

    2017-09-01

    How level of personality organization (LPO) predicts psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- versus long-term psychotherapies is poorly known. We investigated the importance of the LPO on the benefits of short-term versus long-term psychotherapies. A cohort study based on 326 outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder was allocated to long-term (LPP) and short-term (SPP) psychodynamic psychotherapy, and solution-focused therapy (SFT). The LPO was assessed by interview at baseline and categorized into neuroses and higher level borderline. Outcome was assessed at baseline and 4-9 times during a 5-year follow-up, using self-report and interview-based measures of symptoms and work ability. For patients receiving SPP, improvement in work ability, symptom reduction, and the remission rate were more considerable in patients with neuroses than in higher level borderline patients, whereas LPP or SFT showed no notable differences in effectiveness in the two LPO groups. In patients with neuroses, improvement was more considerable in the short-term therapy groups during the first year of follow-up, and in higher level borderline patients LPP was more effective after 3 years of follow-up. The remission rate, defined as both symptom reduction and lack of auxiliary treatment, was higher in LPP than in SPP for both the LPO groups considered. In neuroses, short-term psychotherapy was associated with a more rapid reduction of symptoms and increase in work ability, whereas LPP was more effective for longer follow-ups in both LPO groups. Further large-scale studies are needed. Level of personality organization is relevant for selection between short- and long-term psychotherapies. Short-term therapy gives faster benefits for neurotic patients but not for patients with higher level borderline personality organization. Sustained remission from symptoms is more probable after long-term than short-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  15. Predictive risk factors for persistent postherniotomy pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aasvang, Eske K; Gmaehle, Eliza; Hansen, Jeanette B

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Persistent postherniotomy pain (PPP) affects everyday activities in 5-10% of patients. Identification of predisposing factors may help to identify the risk groups and guide anesthetic or surgical procedures in reducing risk for PPP. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted in 464...... patients undergoing open or laparoscopic transabdominal preperitoneal elective groin hernia repair. Primary outcome was identification of risk factors for substantial pain-related functional impairment at 6 months postoperatively assessed by the validated Activity Assessment Scale (AAS). Data on potential...... risk factors for PPP were collected preoperatively (pain from the groin hernia, preoperative AAS score, pain from other body regions, and psychometric assessment). Pain scores were collected on days 7 and 30 postoperatively. Sensory functions including pain response to tonic heat stimulation were...

  16. Application of a catchment evolution model to the prediction of long-term erosion on the spoil heap at Ranger uranium mine. Supervising Scientist report 132

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willgoose, G.

    1998-01-01

    There is a need to assess the long-term stability of engineered landforms associated with the rehabilitation of Ranger Uranium Mine, Northern Territory, Australia, as it is a requirement that mill tailings must be contained for periods in excess of 1000 years. The geomorphic model, SIBERIA, is calibrated on hydrology and erosion data collected by a combination of monitoring and rainfall simulation experiments on the waste rock dumps of Ranger. Preliminary analysis of Ranger's preferred above-grade and below-grade rehabilitation options suggests that erosion of the order of 7-8 m will occur on the structure in a period of 1000 years. This depth of erosion may be sufficient to compromise the integrity of the containment. It is shown that SIBERIA has significant advantages over steady-state erosion models. Suggestions are made for the design that will enhance the stability of the structure and extend the structural life of the containment

  17. An exemplar-familiarity model predicts short-term and long-term probe recognition across diverse forms of memory search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosofsky, Robert M; Cox, Gregory E; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M

    2014-11-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across diverse conditions that manipulated relations between targets and foils across trials. Subjects saw lists of from 1 to 16 items followed by a single item recognition probe. In a varied-mapping condition, targets and foils could switch roles across trials; in a consistent-mapping condition, targets and foils never switched roles; and in an all-new condition, on each trial a completely new set of items formed the memory set. In the varied-mapping and all-new conditions, mean correct response times (RTs) and error proportions were curvilinear increasing functions of memory set size, with the RT results closely resembling ones from hybrid visual-memory search experiments reported by Wolfe (2012). In the consistent-mapping condition, new-probe RTs were invariant with set size, whereas old-probe RTs increased slightly with increasing study-test lag. With appropriate choice of psychologically interpretable free parameters, the model accounted well for the complete set of results. The work provides support for the hypothesis that a common set of processes involving exemplar-based familiarity may govern long-term and short-term probe recognition across wide varieties of memory- search conditions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. A comparison of the recording of comorbidity in primary and secondary care by using the Charlson Index to predict short-term and long-term survival in a routine linked data cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crooks, C J; West, J; Card, T R

    2015-06-05

    Hospital admission records provide snapshots of clinical histories for a subset of the population admitted to hospital. In contrast, primary care records provide continuous clinical histories for complete populations, but might lack detail about inpatient stays. Therefore, combining primary and secondary care records should improve the ability of comorbidity scores to predict survival in population-based studies, and provide better adjustment for case-mix differences when assessing mortality outcomes. Cohort study. English primary and secondary care 1 January 2005 to 1 January 2010. All patients 20 years and older registered to a primary care practice contributing to the linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink from England. The performance of the Charlson index with mortality was compared when derived from either primary or secondary care data or both. This was assessed in relation to short-term and long-term survival, age, consultation rate, and specific acute and chronic diseases. 657,264 people were followed up from 1 January 2005. Although primary care recorded more comorbidity than secondary care, the resulting C statistics for the Charlson index remained similar: 0.86 and 0.87, respectively. Higher consultation rates and restricted age bands reduced the performance of the Charlson index, but the index's excellent performance persisted over longer follow-up; the C statistic was 0.87 over 1 year, and 0.85 over all 5 years of follow-up. The Charlson index derived from secondary care comorbidity had a greater effect than primary care comorbidity in reducing the association of upper gastrointestinal bleeding with mortality. However, they had a similar effect in reducing the association of diabetes with mortality. These findings support the use of the Charlson index from linked data and show that secondary care comorbidity coding performed at least as well as that derived from primary care in predicting survival. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited

  19. Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matthiesen, Henning; Hilbert, Lisbeth Rischel; Gregory, David

    2005-01-01

    Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems.......Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems....

  20. Combined Racial and Gender Differences in the Long-Term Predictive Role of Education on Depressive Symptoms and Chronic Medical Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assari, Shervin

    2017-06-01

    Despite a well-established literature on the protective effect of education on health, less is known about group differences in the mechanisms underlying this association. Using a life course approach and cumulative advantage theory, this study compared Black men, Black women, White men, and White women to assess the long-term gradient (education as a continuous measure) and threshold (>12 years) effects of baseline education on change in chronic medical conditions (CMC) and depressive symptoms (DS) from baseline to 25 years later. Data came from the Americans' Changing Lives Study, 1986-2011. The study followed Black and White respondents for up to 25 years, among whom 1271 individuals who had survived and were under follow-up were interviewed in 2011 and reported their number of chronic medical conditions and depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression; CES-D 11). Multi-group structural equation modeling was used to compare gradient and threshold effects of education on change in chronic medical conditions and depressive symptoms from baseline (1986) to 25 years later (2011) among Black men, Black women, White men, and White women. There were group differences in the long-term association between education measured as a gradient and the change in depressive symptoms and chronic medical conditions during the follow-up, and in the association between education measured at the threshold of 12 years on change in depressive symptoms from baseline to follow-up. However, the association between education measured at this threshold and change in chronic medical conditions did not differ across race-gender groups. With the exception of Black men, who showed a gradient protective effect for baseline education against increase in the number of chronic medical associations (threshold or gradient) with change in chronic medical conditions. Among White men and White women, education had a threshold protective effect against increase in depressive

  1. Predictive factors for the development of persistent pain after breast cancer surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kenneth Geving; Duriaud, Helle Molter; Jensen, Helle Elisabeth

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have reported that 15% to 25% of patients treated for breast cancer experience long-term moderate-to-severe pain in the area of surgery, potentially lasting for several years. Few prospective studies have included all potential risk factors for the devel