Long-term effectiveness of localization studies and intraoperative parathormone monitoring in patients undergoing reoperative parathyroidectomy for persistent or recurrent hyperparathyroidism.

Science.gov (United States)

Parikh, Punam P; Farra, Josefina C; Allan, Bassan J; Lew, John I

2015-07-01

Reoperative parathyroidectomy (RPTX) for persistent or recurrent hyperparathyroidism is associated with a high rate of operative failure. The long-term effectiveness of RPTX using localization studies and intraoperative parathormone monitoring (IPM) was examined. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from patients undergoing targeted RPTX with IPM for persistent or recurrent hyperparathyroidism was performed. Persistent hyperparathyroidism was defined as elevated calcium and parathormone (PTH) levels above normal range less than 6 months after parathyroidectomy. Recurrent hyperparathyroidism was defined as elevated calcium and PTH levels greater than 6 months after successful parathyroidectomy. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) for sestamibi, surgeon-performed ultrasound, intraoperative PTH dynamics, and surgical outcomes were evaluated. Of the 1,064 patients, 69 patients underwent 72 RPTXs with localizing studies and IPM. Sestamibi (n = 69) had a sensitivity of 74% and a PPV of 83%, whereas surgeon-performed ultrasound (n = 38) had a sensitivity of 55% and a PPV of 76%. IPM had a sensitivity of 100% and a PPV of 98%. An intraoperative PTH drop greater than or equal to 50% was predictive of operative success (P < .01). Overall, operative success and recurrence were 94% and 1.4%, with a mean patient follow-up of 59 ± 12.8 months. RPTX can be performed in a targeted approach using preoperative localization studies and IPM, leading to a low rate of complications and a high rate of long-term operative success. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brett W Pinsky

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The ability to accurately predict a population′s long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population′s long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS projections were calculated and com-pared with the population′s actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1 fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A and (2 uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B. Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted sur-vival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%. Excellent predictability (41.3% can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population′s long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

Long-Term Prediction of Severe Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Marie Moth; Færch, Louise; Thorsteinsson, Birger

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Prediction of risk of severe hypoglycemia (SH) in patients with type 1 diabetes is important to prevent future episodes, but it is unknown if it is possible to predict the long-term risk of SH. The aim of the study is to assess if long-term prediction of SH is possible in type 1...... diabetes. METHODS: A follow-up study was performed with 98 patients with type 1 diabetes. At baseline and at follow-up, the patients filled in a questionnaire about diabetes history and complications, number of SH in the preceding year and state of awareness, and HbA1c and C-peptide levels were measured......-up. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term prediction of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes was not possible, although baseline hypoglycemia unawareness tended to remain a predictor for risk of SH at follow-up. Therefore, it is important repeatedly to assess the different risk factors of SH to determine the actual risk....

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

Prediction of long term stability for geological disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Koide, Hitoshi; Kono, Itoshi

1998-01-01

On geological disposal of radioactive wastes, study on prediction of diastrophism has been paid many attentions, and then long term future prediction ranging from some thousands to some tends thousands years may be necessary for some target nuclides. As there are various methods in the future prediction, it is essential to use a computational dynamic procedure to conduct a quantitative prediction. However, it causes an obstacle to advancement of the prediction method that informations on deep underground have a lot of uncertain elements because of their few and indirect data. In this paper, a long term prediction procedure of diastrophism relating to geological disposal of radioactive wastes with low level but isolation terms required to some thousands years was investigated and each one example was shown on flow of the investigation and its modeling method by using the finite element method. It seems to be a key to upgrade accuracy of future diastrophism prediction how an earth fault can be analyzed. And, as the diastrophism is a long term and complex phenomenon and its prediction has many uncertain elements, it is important to judge comprehensively results of its numerical analysis geologically and on rock engineering. (G.K.)

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacob Nabe-Nielsen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis, vole (Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. SIGNIFICANCE: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations

Term Structure Persistence

OpenAIRE

Abbritti, M. (Mirko); Gil-Alana, L.A. (Luis A.); Lovcha, Y. (Yuliya); Moreno, A. (Antonio)

2012-01-01

Stationary I(0) models employed in yield curve analysis typically imply an unrealistically low degree of volatility in long-run short-rate expectations due to fast mean reversion. In this paper we propose a novel multivariate affine term structure model with a two-fold source of persistence in the yield curve: Long-memory and short-memory. Our model, based on an I(d) specification, nests the I(0) and I(1) models as special cases and the I(0) model is decisively rejected by the data. Our model...

Long-Term Persistence of Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the Causative Agent of White-Nose Syndrome, in the Absence of Bats.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyt, Joseph R; Langwig, Kate E; Okoniewski, Joseph; Frick, Winifred F; Stone, Ward B; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2015-06-01

Wildlife diseases have been implicated in the declines and extinctions of several species. The ability of a pathogen to persist outside its host, existing as an "environmental reservoir", can exacerbate the impact of a disease and increase the likelihood of host extinction. Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome in bats, has been found in cave soil during the summer when hibernating bats had likely been absent for several months. However, whether the pathogen can persist over multiple years in the absence of bats is unknown, and long-term persistence of the pathogen can influence whether hibernacula where bats have been locally extirpated due to disease can be subsequently recolonized. Here, we show that P. destructans is capable of long-term persistence in the laboratory in the absence of bats. We cultured P. destructans from dried agar plates that had been kept at 5°C and low humidity conditions (30-40% RH) for more than 5 years. This suggests that P. destructans can persist in the absence of bats for long periods which may prevent the recolonization of hibernation, sites where bat populations were extirpated. This increases the extinction risk of bats affected by this disease.

Persistence of type-specific human papillomavirus infection and increased long-term risk of cervical cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hui-Chi; Schiffman, Mark; Lin, Ching-Yu; Pan, Mei-Hung; You, San-Lin; Chuang, Li-Chung; Hsieh, Chang-Yao; Liaw, Kai-Li; Hsing, Ann W; Chen, Chien-Jen

2011-09-21

Human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence is the pivotal event in cervical carcinogenesis. We followed a large-scale community-based cohort for 16 years to investigate the role of genotype-specific HPV persistence in predicting cervical cancer including invasive and in situ carcinoma. At the baseline examination in 1991-1992, 11,923 participants (aged 30-65 years) consented to HPV testing and cytology; 6923 participants were reexamined in 1993-1995. For HPV testing, we used a polymerase chain reaction-based assay that detected 39 HPV types. Women who developed cervical cancer were identified from cancer and death registries. Cumulative risks for developing cervical cancer among infected and persistently infected women were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Of 10,123 women who were initially cytologically normal, 68 developed cervical cancer. The 16-year cumulative risks of subsequent cervical cancer for women with HPV16, HPV58 (without HPV16), or other carcinogenic HPV types (without HPV16 or HPV58) were 13.5%, 10.3%, and 4.0%, respectively, compared with 0.26% for HPV-negative women. Women with type-specific persistence of any carcinogenic HPV had greatly increased risk compared with women who were HPV-negative at both visits (hazard ratio = 75.4, 95% confidence interval = 31.8 to 178.9). The cumulative cervical cancer risks following persistent carcinogenic HPV infections increased with age: The risks were 5.5%, 14.4%, and 18.1% for women aged 30-44 years, 45-54 years, and 55 years and older, respectively. However, newly acquired infections were associated with a low risk of cervical cancer regardless of age. HPV negativity was associated with a very low long-term risk of cervical cancer. Persistent detection of HPV among cytologically normal women greatly increased risk. Thus, it is useful to perform repeated HPV testing following an initial positive test.

Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

Science.gov (United States)

Atwood, Todd C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Rode, Karyn D.; Durner, George M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.

2015-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion’s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions

An assessment of the long-term persistence of prion infectivity in aquatic environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marín-Moreno, Alba; Espinosa, Juan-Carlos; Fernández-Borges, Natalia; Píquer, Juan; Girones, Rosina; Andreoletti, Olivier; Torres, Juan-María

2016-01-01

The environment plays a key role in horizontal transmission of prion diseases, since prions are extremely resistant to classical inactivation procedures. In prior work, we observed the high stability of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectivity when these prions were incubated in aqueous media such as phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) or wastewater for nearly nine months. As a continuation of this experiment, the same samples were maintained in PBS or wastewater for five additional years and residual BSE infectivity was assessed in bovine PrP C transgenic mice. Over this long time period (more than six years), BSE infectivity was reduced by three and one orders of magnitude in wastewater and PBS respectively. To rule out a possible agent specific effect, sheep scrapie prions were subjected to the same experimental protocol, using eight years as the experimental end-point. No significant reduction in scrapie infectivity was observed over the first nine months of wastewater incubation while PBS incubation for eight years only produced a two logarithmic unit reduction in infectivity. By contrast, the dynamics of PrP Res persistence was different, disappearing progressively over the first year. The long persistence of prion infectivity observed in this study for two different agents provides supporting evidence of the assumed high stability of these agents in aquatic environments and that environmental processes or conventional wastewater treatments with low retention times would have little impact on prion infectivity. These results could have great repercussions in terms of risk assessment and safety for animals and human populations. - Highlights: • Prion infectivity resists long term incubations in aquatic environments. • Infectivity persistence in wastewater is reduced when compared to PBS. • In this study PrPRes fails as a marker for prion detection. • Mice bioassay is the most powerful tool for assessing prion presence. • Wastewater conventional

An assessment of the long-term persistence of prion infectivity in aquatic environments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marín-Moreno, Alba; Espinosa, Juan-Carlos; Fernández-Borges, Natalia; Píquer, Juan [Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal, CISA-INIA, Carretera Algete-El Casar S/n, Valdeolmos, 28130 Madrid (Spain); Girones, Rosina [Department of Microbiology, University of Barcelona, Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Andreoletti, Olivier [UMR INRA-ENVT 1225, Interactions Hôte Agent Pathogène, Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse, Toulouse (France); Torres, Juan-María, E-mail: jmtorres@inia.es [Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal, CISA-INIA, Carretera Algete-El Casar S/n, Valdeolmos, 28130 Madrid (Spain)

2016-11-15

The environment plays a key role in horizontal transmission of prion diseases, since prions are extremely resistant to classical inactivation procedures. In prior work, we observed the high stability of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectivity when these prions were incubated in aqueous media such as phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) or wastewater for nearly nine months. As a continuation of this experiment, the same samples were maintained in PBS or wastewater for five additional years and residual BSE infectivity was assessed in bovine PrP{sup C} transgenic mice. Over this long time period (more than six years), BSE infectivity was reduced by three and one orders of magnitude in wastewater and PBS respectively. To rule out a possible agent specific effect, sheep scrapie prions were subjected to the same experimental protocol, using eight years as the experimental end-point. No significant reduction in scrapie infectivity was observed over the first nine months of wastewater incubation while PBS incubation for eight years only produced a two logarithmic unit reduction in infectivity. By contrast, the dynamics of PrP{sup Res} persistence was different, disappearing progressively over the first year. The long persistence of prion infectivity observed in this study for two different agents provides supporting evidence of the assumed high stability of these agents in aquatic environments and that environmental processes or conventional wastewater treatments with low retention times would have little impact on prion infectivity. These results could have great repercussions in terms of risk assessment and safety for animals and human populations. - Highlights: • Prion infectivity resists long term incubations in aquatic environments. • Infectivity persistence in wastewater is reduced when compared to PBS. • In this study PrPRes fails as a marker for prion detection. • Mice bioassay is the most powerful tool for assessing prion presence. • Wastewater

Compensation for PKMζ in long-term potentiation and spatial long-term memory in mutant mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsokas, Panayiotis; Hsieh, Changchi; Yao, Yudong; Lesburguères, Edith; Wallace, Emma Jane Claire; Tcherepanov, Andrew; Jothianandan, Desingarao; Hartley, Benjamin Rush; Pan, Ling; Rivard, Bruno; Farese, Robert V; Sajan, Mini P; Bergold, Peter John; Hernández, Alejandro Iván; Cottrell, James E; Shouval, Harel Z; Fenton, André Antonio; Sacktor, Todd Charlton

2016-05-17

PKMζ is a persistently active PKC isoform proposed to maintain late-LTP and long-term memory. But late-LTP and memory are maintained without PKMζ in PKMζ-null mice. Two hypotheses can account for these findings. First, PKMζ is unimportant for LTP or memory. Second, PKMζ is essential for late-LTP and long-term memory in wild-type mice, and PKMζ-null mice recruit compensatory mechanisms. We find that whereas PKMζ persistently increases in LTP maintenance in wild-type mice, PKCι/λ, a gene-product closely related to PKMζ, persistently increases in LTP maintenance in PKMζ-null mice. Using a pharmacogenetic approach, we find PKMζ-antisense in hippocampus blocks late-LTP and spatial long-term memory in wild-type mice, but not in PKMζ-null mice without the target mRNA. Conversely, a PKCι/λ-antagonist disrupts late-LTP and spatial memory in PKMζ-null mice but not in wild-type mice. Thus, whereas PKMζ is essential for wild-type LTP and long-term memory, persistent PKCι/λ activation compensates for PKMζ loss in PKMζ-null mice.

Persistent inhibition of hippocampal long-term potentiation in vivo by learned helplessness stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Benedict K; Vollmayr, Barbara; Klyubin, Igor; Gass, Peter; Rowan, Michael J

2010-06-01

The persistent cognitive disruptive effects of stress have been strongly implicated in the pathophysiology of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. Here we examined factors influencing the time course of recovery from the inhibitory effect of acute inescapable stressors on the ability to induce long-term potentiation (LTP) in the dorsal hippocampus in vivo. We tested different forms of LTP, different stressors and different inbred strains of rats. Acute elevated platform stress completely, but transiently (learned helplessness, inhibited LTP for at least 4 weeks. Contrary to expectations, there was no clear relationship between the ability of the footshock to trigger helpless behavior, a model of stress-induced depression, and the magnitude of LTP inhibition. Moreover, LTP did not appear to be affected by genetic susceptibility to learned helplessness, a model of genetic vulnerability to depression. This long-lasting synaptic plasticity disruption may underlie persistent impairment of hippocampus-dependent cognition by excessive acute inescapable stress.

Long term in vivo imaging with Cr{sup 3+} doped spinel nanoparticles exhibiting persistent luminescence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Viana, B., E-mail: bruno.viana@chimie-paristech.fr [PSL Research University, Chimie ParisTech−CNRS, Institut de Recherche de Chimie Paris, 75005 Paris (France); Chimie-ParisTech, Paris cedex F-75231 (France); Sharma, S.K.; Gourier, D. [PSL Research University, Chimie ParisTech−CNRS, Institut de Recherche de Chimie Paris, 75005 Paris (France); Chimie-ParisTech, Paris cedex F-75231 (France); Maldiney, T.; Teston, E.; Scherman, D. [Unité de Technologies Chimiques et Biologiques pour la Santé (UTCBS), CNRS UMR 8258, INSERM U 1022, Paris cedex F-75270 (France); Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Faculté des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques, Paris cedex F-75270 (France); Chimie-ParisTech, Paris cedex F-75231 (France); Richard, C., E-mail: cyrille.richard@parisdescartes.fr [Unité de Technologies Chimiques et Biologiques pour la Santé (UTCBS), CNRS UMR 8258, INSERM U 1022, Paris cedex F-75270 (France); Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Faculté des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques, Paris cedex F-75270 (France); Chimie-ParisTech, Paris cedex F-75231 (France)

2016-02-15

Persistent luminescence is a singular property of some materials which are able to store the excitation or light irradiation energy at intrinsic traps or defects before slowly emitting lower energy photons within several hours. When such compounds are prepared as nanoparticles (NPs), when functionalization is realized to get colloidal materials well dispersed in aqueous medium, such nanoprobes open the use of the persistent luminescence for bioimaging applications. Recently, the numbers of in vivo applications increased with new modalities and new expectations. In this review, we focused our attention on the ZnGa{sub 2}O{sub 4}:Cr (ZGO:Cr) nanoparticles. When ZnGa{sub 2}O{sub 4} (ZGO), a normal spinel is doped with Cr{sup 3+} ions, a high brightness persistent luminescence material with an emission spectrum perfectly matching the transparency window of living tissues is obtained. It allows in vivo mouse imaging with an excellent target-to-background ratio. One interesting characteristic of ZGO:Cr lies in the fact that its persistent luminescence can be excited with orange/red light, well below its band gap energy and in the transparency window of living tissues. This important property allows multiple re-excitations to perform long term bioimaging. Antisite defects of the direct spinel structure are assumed to provide shallow traps which store the excitation light. Charge release by room temperature thermal excitation and recombination center, here trivalent chromium, are responsible for the persistent luminescence. Following a primary excitation (UV or visible), one also observed that trapped charges can be released under 977 nm light stimulation for several spinel gallate materials, therefore increasing the modalities and the materials envisioned for in vivo excitation of these NPs. - Highlights: • Review of the persistent luminescence for bio-imaging. • Long term bioimaging by in vivo excitation and photostimulation. • Challenges and main advances in the

Long-term Creep Life Prediction for Type 316LN Stainless Steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Woo Gon; Ryu, Woo Seog; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bok

2007-01-01

Since Sodium Fast Cooled Reactor (SFR) components are designed to be use for more than 30 years at a high temperature of 550 .deg. C, one of the most important properties of these components is the long term creep behavior. To accurately predict the long-term creep life of the components, it is essential to achieve reliable long-term test data beyond their design life. But, it is difficult to actually obtain long duration data because it is time-consuming work. So far, a variety of time-temperature parameters (TTPs) have been developed to predict a long-term creep life from shorter-time tests at higher temperatures. Among them, the Larson-Miller, the Orr-Sherby-Dorn, the Manson-Harferd and the Manson-Succop parameters have been typically used. None of these parameters has an overwhelming preference, and they have certain inherent restrictions imposed on their data in the application of the TTPs parameters. Meanwhile, it has been reported that the Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) proposed by Manson and Ensign has a greater flexibility for a creep rupture analysis. Thus, the MCM will be useful as another approach. Until now, the applicability of the MCM has not been investigated for type 316LN SS because of insufficient creep data. In this paper, the MCM was applied to predict a long-term creep life of type 316LN stainless steel (SS). Lots of creep rupture data was collected through literature surveys and the experimental data of KAERI. Using the short-term experimental data for under 2,000 hours, a longer-time rupture above 105 hours was predicted by the MCM at temperatures from 550 .deg. C to 800 .deg. C

Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ekonomou, L.

2010-01-01

In this paper artificial neural networks (ANN) are addressed in order the Greek long-term energy consumption to be predicted. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) has been used for this purpose by testing several possible architectures in order to be selected the one with the best generalizing ability. Actual recorded input and output data that influence long-term energy consumption were used in the training, validation and testing process. The developed ANN model is used for the prediction of 2005-2008, 2010, 2012 and 2015 Greek energy consumption. The produced ANN results for years 2005-2008 were compared with the results produced by a linear regression method, a support vector machine method and with real energy consumption records showing a great accuracy. The proposed approach can be useful in the effective implementation of energy policies, since accurate predictions of energy consumption affect the capital investment, the environmental quality, the revenue analysis, the market research management, while conserve at the same time the supply security. Furthermore it constitutes an accurate tool for the Greek long-term energy consumption prediction problem, which up today has not been faced effectively.

Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

2015-01-01

A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: The impact factor of the journal in which a

Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: the impact factor of the journal in which a

LONG-TERM OUTCOME OF THE DIFFERENT TREATMENT ALTERNATIVES FOR RECURRENT AND PERSISTENT CUSHING DISEASE.

Science.gov (United States)

Espinosa-de-Los-Monteros, Ana Laura; Sosa-Eroza, Ernesto; Espinosa, Etual; Mendoza, Victoria; Arreola, Rocio; Mercado, Moises

2017-07-01

Treatment alternatives for persistent and recurrent Cushing disease (CD) include pituitary surgical re-intervention, radiation therapy (RT), pharmacotherapy, and bilateral adrenalectomy (BA). The decision of which of these alternatives is better suited for the individual patient rests on clinical judgment and the availability of resources. This retrospective cohort study was performed at a referral center to evaluate the long-term efficacy of different secondary interventions for persistent and recurrent CD. We evaluated the hospital charts of 84 patients (77 female, median age 34 years, median follow up 6.3 years) with CD diagnosed, treated, and followed at our multidisciplinary clinic according to a pre-established protocol. Of the 81 patients who were initially treated with transsphenoidal surgery (TSS), 61.7% had a long-lasting remission, 16% had persistent disease, and 22% achieved remission but relapsed during follow-up. The most frequently used secondary treatment was pituitary re-intervention, followed by ketoconazole, RT, and BA. Early remissions were observed in 66.6% of the re-operated and in 58.3% of the radiated patients; long-lasting remission was achieved in 33.3% and 41.6% of these patients, respectively. Nelson syndrome developed in 41.6% of the patients who underwent BA. Upon last follow-up, 88% of all the patients are in remission, and 9.5% are biochemically controlled with ketoconazole. The efficacy of treatment alternatives for recurrent or persistent CD varies considerably among patients and multiple interventions are often required to achieve long-lasting remission. ACTH = adrenocorticotrophic hormone; BA = bilateral adrenalectomy; CBG = cabergoline; CD = Cushing disease; CV = coefficient of variation; DXM = dexamethasone; IQR = interquartile range; RT = radiation therapy; SRS = stereotactic radiosurgery; TSS = transsphenoidal surgery; UFC = urinary free cortisol; ULN = upper limit of normal.

Poor fine-motor and visuospatial skills predict persistence of pediatric-onset obsessive-compulsive disorder into adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Bloch, Michael H; Sukhodolsky, Denis G; Dombrowski, Philip A; Panza, Kaitlyn E; Craiglow, Brittany G; Landeros-Weisenberger, Angeli; Leckman, James F; Peterson, Bradley S; Schultz, Robert T

2011-09-01

Half of pediatric-onset OCD cases remit by adulthood. Studies have demonstrated that initial response to pharmacotherapy, age of onset, prominent hoarding symptoms, and the presence of comorbid tic disorders are associated with long-term outcome. Our goal was to examine the association between childhood performance on neuropsychological testing and persistence of OCD into adulthood. Twenty-four children with OCD were followed for an average of 7.5 years into early adulthood. Neuropsychological performance in childhood (childhood performance on the Purdue pegboard task and the block design subscale of WISC-III was associated with persistence of OCD symptoms into adulthood. IQ, VMI, and nonverbal memory performance did not predict significantly the persistence of OCD. These results suggest that visuospatial and fine-motor skill deficits are predictive of poor long-term outcome in pediatric-onset OCD. Future longitudinal studies are needed to chart the course of these deficits relative to the course of symptoms in OCD and to determine whether the association of these neuropsychiatric deficits with long-term outcome is specific to pediatric-onset OCD or generalizes to other psychiatric disorders. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Persistent negative illness perceptions despite long-term biochemical control of acromegaly: novel application of the drawing test

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tiemensma, Jitske; Pereira, Alberto M.; Romijn, Johannes A.; Broadbent, Elizabeth; Biermasz, Nienke R.; Kaptein, Adrian A.

2015-01-01

Context and objective: Patients with acromegaly have persistent complaints despite long-term biochemical control. Drawings can be used to assess patients' perceptions about their disease. We aimed to explore the utility of the drawing test and its relation to illness perceptions and quality of life

Remaining uncertainties in predicting long-term performance of nuclear waste glass from experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grambow, B.

1994-01-01

The current knowledge on the glass dissolution mechanism and the representation of glass dissolution concepts within overall repository performance assessment models are briefly summarized and uncertainties related to mechanism, radionuclide chemistry and parameters are discussed. Understanding of the major glass dissolution processes has been significantly increased in recent years. Long-term glass stability is related to the long-term maintenance of silica saturated conditions. The behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass has not been sufficiently and results do no yet allow meaningful predictions. Conserving long-term predictions of glass matrix dissolution as upper limit for radionuclide release can be made with sufficient confidence, however these estimations generally result in a situation where the barrier function of the glass is masked by the efficiency of the geologic barrier. Realistic long-term predictions may show that the borosilicate waste glass contributes to overall repository safety to a much larger extent than indicated by overconservatism. Today realistic predictions remain highly uncertain and much more research work is necessary. In particular, the long-term rate under silica saturated conditions needs to be understood and the behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass deserves more systematic investigations

Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature Using Long Short-Term Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qin; Wang, Hui; Dong, Junyu; Zhong, Guoqiang; Sun, Xin

2017-10-01

This letter adopts long short-term memory(LSTM) to predict sea surface temperature(SST), which is the first attempt, to our knowledge, to use recurrent neural network to solve the problem of SST prediction, and to make one week and one month daily prediction. We formulate the SST prediction problem as a time series regression problem. LSTM is a special kind of recurrent neural network, which introduces gate mechanism into vanilla RNN to prevent the vanished or exploding gradient problem. It has strong ability to model the temporal relationship of time series data and can handle the long-term dependency problem well. The proposed network architecture is composed of two kinds of layers: LSTM layer and full-connected dense layer. LSTM layer is utilized to model the time series relationship. Full-connected layer is utilized to map the output of LSTM layer to a final prediction. We explore the optimal setting of this architecture by experiments and report the accuracy of coastal seas of China to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, we also show its online updated characteristics.

Introduction: Long term prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beranger, G.

2003-01-01

Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

Stress within a Restricted Time Window Selectively Affects the Persistence of Long-Term Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Qin; Chai, Ning; Zhao, Li-Yan; Xue, Yan-Xue; Luo, Yi-Xiao; Jian, Min; Han, Ying; Shi, Hai-Shui; Lu, Lin; Wu, Ping; Wang, Ji-Shi

2013-01-01

The effects of stress on emotional memory are distinct and depend on the stages of memory. Memory undergoes consolidation and reconsolidation after acquisition and retrieval, respectively. Stress facilitates the consolidation but disrupts the reconsolidation of emotional memory. Previous research on the effects of stress on memory have focused on long-term memory (LTM) formation (tested 24 h later), but the effects of stress on the persistence of LTM (tested at least 1 week later) are unclear. Recent findings indicated that the persistence of LTM requires late-phase protein synthesis in the dorsal hippocampus. The present study investigated the effect of stress (i.e., cold water stress) during the late phase after the acquisition and retrieval of contextual fear memory in rats. We found that stress and corticosterone administration during the late phase (12 h) after acquisition, referred to as late consolidation, selectively enhanced the persistence of LTM, whereas stress during the late phase (12 h) after retrieval, referred to as late reconsolidation, selectively disrupted the restabilized persistence of LTM. Moreover, the effects of stress on the persistence of LTM were blocked by the corticosterone synthesis inhibitor metyrapone, which was administered before stress, suggesting that the glucocorticoid system is involved in the effects of stress on the persistence of LTM. We conclude that stress within a restricted time window after acquisition or retrieval selectively affects the persistence of LTM and depends on the glucocorticoid system. PMID:23544051

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

2015-09-01

It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

2009-01-01

Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

Long-term Persistence of Innate Lymphoid Cells in the Gut After Intestinal Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiner, Joshua; Zuber, Julien; Shonts, Brittany; Yang, Suxiao; Fu, Jianing; Martinez, Mercedes; Farber, Donna L; Kato, Tomoaki; Sykes, Megan

2017-10-01

Little is known about innate lymphoid cell (ILC) populations in the human gut, and the turnover of these cells and their subsets after transplantation has not been described. Intestinal samples were taken from 4 isolated intestine and 3 multivisceral transplant recipients at the time of any operative resection, such as stoma closure or revision. ILCs were isolated and analyzed by flow cytometry. The target population was defined as being negative for lineage markers and double-positive for CD45/CD127. Cells were further stained to define ILC subsets and a donor-specific or recipient-specific HLA marker to analyze chimerism. Donor-derived ILCs were found to persist greater than 8 years after transplantation. Additionally, the percentage of cells thought to be lymphoid tissue inducer cells among donor ILCs was far higher than that among recipient ILCs. Our findings demonstrate that donor-derived ILCs persist long-term after transplantation and support the notion that human lymphoid tissue inducer cells may form in the fetus and persist throughout life, as hypothesized in rodents. Correlation between chimerism and rejection, graft failure, and patient survival requires further study.

Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

2015-03-01

China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P

2017-09-27

Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regulatory components for treating persistent pain in long-term care.

Science.gov (United States)

Planton, Jonathan; Edlund, Barbara J

2010-04-01

Persistent or chronic pain is frequently reported by older adults and has the potential to dramatically influence quality of life. Estimates indicate that 25% to 50% of community-dwelling older adults experience this kind of pain. This rate is even higher in long-term care facilities, where 50% to 75% of residents have chronic pain syndromes that are untreated or undertreated. To promote optimal pain management and enumerate the responsibilities of skilled nursing facilities to effectively treat and prevent pain, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released a new pain management surveyor guidance, F-Tag 309, which endorses the presence of an interdisciplinary team approach to pain management that involves the resident. The guidance delineates pain management principles, the need for ongoing professional education in all components of pain management, and emphasizes the important role of appropriate pharmacological treatment in conjunction with nonpharmacological interventions to aggressively manage pain. This directive will help skilled nursing facilities achieve optimal pain management for their residents. Copyright 2010, SLACK Incorporated.

A prediction method for long-term behavior of prestressed concrete containment vessels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozaki, M.; Abe, T.; Watanabe, Y.; Kato, A.; Yamaguchi, T.; Yamamoto, M.

1995-01-01

This paper presents results of studies on the long-term behavior of PCCVs at Taruga Unit No 2 and Ohi Unit No 3/4 power stations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the measured strain in the concrete and reduction force in the tendons, and to establish the prediction methods for long-term PCCVs behavior. Comparing the measured strains with those calculated due to creep and shrinkage of the concrete, those in contrast were investigated. Furthermore, the reduced tendon forces are calculated considering losses in elasticity, relaxation, creep and shrinkage. The measured reduction in the tendon forces is compared with the calculated. Considering changes in temperature and humidity, the measured strains and tendon forces were in good agreement with those calculated. From the above results, it was confirmed that the residual pre stresses in the PCCVs maintain the predicted values at the design stage, and that the prediction method of long-term behaviors has sufficient reliability. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

Long-term efficacy and safety of omalizumab in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OpenAIRE

Lai, Tianwen; Wang, Shaobin; Xu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Chao; Zhao, Yun; Hu, Yue; Cao, Chao; Ying, Songmin; Chen, Zhihua; Li, Wen; Wu, Bin; Shen, Huahao

2015-01-01

Currently, limited information is available to clinicians regarding the long-term efficacy of omalizumab treatment for allergic asthma. In this report, we aimed to (i) systematically review the evidence regarding the long-term efficacy of omalizumab in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma, and to (ii) discuss the cost-effectiveness evidence published for omalizumab in this patient population. A comprehensive search for randomized controlled trials (RCTs; ?52 weeks) was perfor...

Long-Term Prediction of Satellite Orbit Using Analytical Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Cheol Yoon

1997-12-01

Full Text Available A long-term prediction algorithm of geostationary orbit was developed using the analytical method. The perturbation force models include geopotential upto fifth order and degree and luni-solar gravitation, and solar radiation pressure. All of the perturbation effects were analyzed by secular variations, short-period variations, and long-period variations for equinoctial elements such as the semi-major axis, eccentricity vector, inclination vector, and mean longitude of the satellite. Result of the analytical orbit propagator was compared with that of the cowell orbit propagator for the KOREASAT. The comparison indicated that the analytical solution could predict the semi-major axis with an accuarcy of better than ~35meters over a period of 3 month.

Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yang, X.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

1998-01-01

This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tech-nique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with

The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-10-01

The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of long-term behaviour for nuclear waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoesmith, D.W.; Ikeda, B.M.; King, F.; Sunder, S.

1996-09-01

The modelling procedures developed for the long-term prediction of the corrosion of used fuel and of titanium and copper nuclear waste containers are described. The corrosion behaviour of these materials changes with time as the conditions within the conceptual disposal vault evolve from an early warm, oxidizing phase to an indefinite period of cool, anoxic conditions. For the two candidate container materials, this evolution of conditions means that the containers will be initially susceptible to localized corrosion but that in the long-term, corrosion should be more general in nature. The propagation of the pitting of Cu and of the crevice corrosion of Ti alloys is modelled using statistical models. General corrosion processes are modelled deterministically. For the fuel, deterministic electrochemical models have been developed to predict the long-term dissolution rate of U0 2 . The corrosion behaviour of materials in the disposal vault can be influenced by reengineering the vault environment. For instance, increasing the areal loading of containers will produce higher vault temperatures resulting in more extensive drying of the porous backfill materials. The initiation of crevice corrosion on Ti may then be delayed, leading to longer container lifetimes. For copper containers, minimizing the amount Of O 2 initially trapped in the pores of the backfill, or adding reducing agents to consume this O 2 faster, will limit the extent of corrosion, permitting a reduction of the container wall thickness necessary for containment. (author). 55 refs., 19 figs

Prediction on long-term mean and mean square pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, S; Lamb, R G; Seinfeld, J H

1976-01-01

The general problem of predicting long-term average (say yearly) pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere is formulated. The pollutant concentration can be viewed as a random process, the complete description of which requires knowledge of its probability density function, which is unknown. The mean concentration is the first moment of the concentration distribution, and at present there exist a number of models for predicting the long-term mean concentration of an inert pollutant. The second moment, or mean square concentration, indicates additional features of the distribution, such as the level of fluctuations about the mean. In the paper a model proposed by Lamb for the long-term mean concentration is reviewed, and a new model for prediction of the long-term mean square concentration of an inert air pollutant is derived. The properties and uses of the model are discussed, and the equations defining the model are presented in a form for direct application to an urban area.

Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness...... of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved...

Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-02-01

Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Persistent hyperparathyroidism as a risk factor for long-term graft failure: the need to discuss indication for parathyroidectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Araujo, Maria Júlia Correia Lima Nepomuceno; Ramalho, Janaina Almeida Mota; Elias, Rosilene Motta; Jorgetti, Vanda; Nahas, William; Custodio, Melani; Moysés, Rosa M A; David-Neto, Elias

2018-01-10

Although a successful kidney transplant (KTx) improves most of the mineral and bone disorders (MBD) produced by chronic kidney disease (CKD), hyperparathyroidism may persist (pHPT). Current guidelines recommend parathyroidectomy if serum parathormone is persistently elevated 1 year after KTx, because pHPT has been recently associated with poor graft outcomes. However, whether patients with pHPT and adequate renal function are at risk for long-term graft failure is unknown. Longitudinal follow-up of 911 adults submitted to KTx between January 2005 and December 2014, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 30 mL/min 1 year after surgery. Clinical and laboratory data were collected from electronic database. Graft failure was defined as return to dialysis. Overall, 62% of the patients were classified as having pHPT 1 year after KTx. After a mean follow-up time of 47 months, there were 59 graft failures (49 in pHPT and 10 in non-pHPT group, P = .003). At last follow-up, death-censored graft survival was lower in the pHPT group (P = .009), even after adjustment for age at KTx, donor age, donor type, acute rejection, parathyroidectomy, and eGFR at 1 year after transplantation (odds ratio [OR] 1.99; 1.004-3.971; P = .049). A PTH of 150 pg/mL at 6 months was the best cutoff to predict pHPT at 1 year (specificity = 92.1%). Having pHPT after a successful KTx increases the long-term risk of death-censored graft failure. This result highlights the need for better recognition and management of CKD-MBD before and during the first year after KTx, and opens a discussion on the more appropriate timing to perform parathyroidectomy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Persistent negative illness perceptions despite long-term biochemical control of acromegaly: novel application of the drawing test.

Science.gov (United States)

Tiemensma, Jitske; Pereira, Alberto M; Romijn, Johannes A; Broadbent, Elizabeth; Biermasz, Nienke R; Kaptein, Adrian A

2015-05-01

Patients with acromegaly have persistent complaints despite long-term biochemical control. Drawings can be used to assess patients' perceptions about their disease. We aimed to explore the utility of the drawing test and its relation to illness perceptions and quality of life (QoL) in patients after long-term remission of acromegaly. A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate the utility of the drawing test. A total of 50 patients after long-term remission (mean±s.e.m., 16±1.2 years) of acromegaly were included in this study. Patients completed the drawing test (two retrospective drawings of their body perception before acromegaly and during the active phase of acromegaly, and one drawing on the current condition after long-term remission), Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised, Physical Symptom Checklist, EuroQoL-5D, and AcroQoL. Patients perceived a dramatic change in body size during the active state of the disease compared with the healthy state before the awareness of acromegaly. Patients reported that their body did not completely return to the original proportions after long-term remission. In addition, larger drawings indicated more negative consequences (Pdrawings also indicated more impaired QoL, especially disease-specific QoL (all Pdrawing test, illness perceptions, and QoL. The drawing test appears to be a novel and relatively easy tool to assess the perception of patients after long-term remission of acromegaly. The assessment of drawings may enable health care providers to appreciate the perceptions of patients with long-term remission of acromegaly, and enable discussion of symptoms and remission. © 2015 European Society of Endocrinology.

Applicability of short-term accelerated biofouling studies to predict long-term biofouling accumulation in reverse osmosis membrane systems

KAUST Repository

Sanawar, Huma

2018-02-02

Biofouling studies addressing biofouling control are mostly executed in short-term studies. It is unclear whether data collected from these experiments are representative for long-term biofouling as occurring in full-scale membrane systems. This study investigated whether short-term biofouling studies accelerated by biodegradable nutrient dosage to feed water were predictive for long-term biofouling development without nutrient dosage. Since the presence of a feed spacer has an strong effect on the degree of biofouling, this study employed six geometrically different feed spacers. Membrane fouling simulators (MFSs) were operated with the same (i) membrane, (ii) feed flow and (iii) feed water, but with feed spacers varying in geometry. For the short-term experiment, biofilm formation was enhanced by nutrient dosage to the MFS feed water, whereas no nutrient dosage was applied in the long-term experiment. Pressure drop development was monitored to characterize the extent of biofouling, while the accumulated viable biomass content at the end of the experimental run was quantified by adenosine triphosphate (ATP) measurements. Impact of feed spacer geometry on biofouling was compared for the short-term and long-term biofouling study. The results of the study revealed that the feed spacers exhibited the same biofouling behavior for (i) the short-term (9-d) study with nutrient dosage and (ii) the long-term (96-d) study without nutrient dosage. For the six different feed spacers, the accumulated viable biomass content (pg ATP.cm) was roughly the same, but the biofouling impact in terms of pressure drop increase in time was significantly different. The biofouling impact ranking of the six feed spacers was the same for the short-term and long-term biofouling studies. Therefore, it can be concluded that short-term accelerated biofouling studies in MFSs are a representative and suitable approach for the prediction of biofouling in membrane filtration systems after long-term

Childhood and persistent ADHD symptoms associated with educational failure and long-term occupational disability in adult ADHD.

Science.gov (United States)

Fredriksen, Mats; Dahl, Alv A; Martinsen, Egil W; Klungsoyr, Ole; Faraone, Stephen V; Peleikis, Dawn E

2014-06-01

Few studies have examined the impact of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms on adult ADHD functional outcomes. To address this issue dimensionally, ADHD symptoms in childhood and adulthood and their relation to educational deficits and work disability are studied in a clinical sample of adult patients with previously untreated ADHD. About 250 adults diagnosed systematically with ADHD according to DSM-IV were prospectively recruited. Primary outcomes were high school dropout and being out of the work last year. Childhood ADHD symptoms, sex differences, comorbidities of other mental disorders, and adult ADHD symptoms were examined by historical data, clinician interviews, and questionnaires. High levels of ADHD symptom severity in childhood were related to dropping out of high school [odds ratio (OR) = 3.0], as were higher numbers of hyperactive-impulsive symptoms in childhood. Significantly, more women than men were long-term work disabled (OR = 2.0). After adjusting for age and gender, persisting high levels of ADHD inattention symptoms in adulthood (OR = 2.5), number of comorbid disorders, and particularly anxiety disorders were significantly related to long-term work disability. Childhood hyperactive-impulsive symptoms and overall severity of childhood ADHD symptoms were associated with high school dropout rates; however, persisting ADHD inattention symptoms and comorbid mental disorders in adulthood were more correlated to occupational impairment. These findings underline proposals for studies on early recognition and interventions for ADHD and psychiatric comorbidity. They further suggest that inattentive symptoms be a focus of adult ADHD treatment and that workplace interventions be considered to prevent long-term work disability.

Persistent muscle fiber regeneration in long term denervation. Past, present, future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ugo Carraro

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Despite the ravages of long term denervation there is structural and ultrastructural evidence for survival of muscle fibers in mammals, with some fibers surviving at least ten months in rodents and 3-6 years in humans. Further, in rodents there is evidence that muscle fibers may regenerate even after repeated damage in the absence of the nerve, and that this potential is maintained for several months after denervation. While in animal models permanently denervated muscle sooner or later loses the ability to contract, the muscles may maintain their size and ability to function if electrically stimulated soon after denervation. Whether in mammals, humans included, this is a result of persistent de novo formation of muscle fibers is an open issue we would like to explore in this review. During the past decade, we have studied muscle biopsies from the quadriceps muscle of Spinal Cord Injury (SCI patients suffering with Conus and Cauda Equina syndrome, a condition that fully and irreversibly disconnects skeletal muscle fibers from their damaged innervating motor neurons. We have demonstrated that human denervated muscle fibers survive years of denervation and can be rescued from severe atrophy by home-based Functional Electrical Stimulation (h-bFES. Using immunohistochemistry with both non-stimulated and the h-bFES stimulated human muscle biopsies, we have observed the persistent presence of muscle fibers which are positive to labeling by an antibody which specifically recognizes the embryonic myosin heavy chain (MHCemb. Relative to the total number of fibers present, only a small percentage of these MHCemb positive fibers are detected, suggesting that they are regenerating muscle fibers and not pre-existing myofibers re-expressing embryonic isoforms. Although embryonic isoforms of acetylcholine receptors are known to be re-expressed and to spread from the end-plate to the sarcolemma of muscle fibers in early phases of muscle denervation, we suggest

EXAMINATION OF ELECTROPHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF THE ATRIUMS IN PATIENTS WITH LONG-TERM PERSISTENT FORM OF ATRIAL FIBRILLATION AND VALVULAR HEART DISEASE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Kulikov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The study objective is to examine electrophysiological parameters of atrial myocardium, characteristics of atrioventricular conduction, and potential factors affecting recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF in patients with persistent and long-term persistent forms of AF prior to the Labirynth IIIB surgery with single-step correction of valvular heart disease.Materials and methods. The study included 100 adults (48 men, 52 women with persistent and long-term persistent forms of AF and different valvular heart diseases. Mean patient age was 59 years. Mean AF duration was 4 years. All patients were prescribed antiarrhythmic therapy but it proved ineffective. In 15 % of patients, restoration of the sinus rhythm was attempted through electrical cardioversion but long-term control of the sinus rhythm wasn’t achieved. All patients were diagnosed with organic pathology of the mitral valve. Also, in 80 % of patients, relative insufficiency of the tricuspid valve was detected. Chronic heart failure functional class per NYHA was III. Size of the left atrium was 5 cm, mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 61 %. All patients underwent electrical cardioversion. After successful restoration of the sinus rhythm, endocardial electrophysiology study (EES of the heart was performed. Then, correction of valvular pathologies and the Labyrinth IIIB surgery were performed. Results. Examination of refractoriness of different parts of the atriums has shown that effective refractory period (ERP of the atrioventricular node was minimal compared to other parts of the atriums. Maximal ERP duration was observed in the upper part of the right atrium. Therefore, in patients with long history of AF, heterogeneity of atrial myocardium ERP duration is observed. In 17 % of patients, atrial vulnerability was detected. The area of atrial vulnerability was always associated with ERP. Its duration in patients with atrial vulnerability was significantly higher.Conclusion. Long-term

Does computer use pose a hazard for future long-term sickness absence?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Johan Hviid; Mikkelsen, Sigurd

2010-01-01

. The hazard ratio for sickness absence with weekly increase of one hour in computer use was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.00). Low satisfaction with work place arrangements and female gender both doubled the risk of sickness absence.We have earlier found that computer use did not predict persistent pain in the neck...... and upper limb, and it seems that computer use neither predicts future long-term sickness absence of all causes....

A computational environment for long-term multi-feature and multi-algorithm seizure prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Teixeira, C A; Direito, B; Costa, R P; Valderrama, M; Feldwisch-Drentrup, H; Nikolopoulos, S; Le Van Quyen, M; Schelter, B; Dourado, A

2010-01-01

The daily life of epilepsy patients is constrained by the possibility of occurrence of seizures. Until now, seizures cannot be predicted with sufficient sensitivity and specificity. Most of the seizure prediction studies have been focused on a small number of patients, and frequently assuming unrealistic hypothesis. This paper adopts the view that for an appropriate development of reliable predictors one should consider long-term recordings and several features and algorithms integrated in one software tool. A computational environment, based on Matlab (®), is presented, aiming to be an innovative tool for seizure prediction. It results from the need of a powerful and flexible tool for long-term EEG/ECG analysis by multiple features and algorithms. After being extracted, features can be subjected to several reduction and selection methods, and then used for prediction. The predictions can be conducted based on optimized thresholds or by applying computational intelligence methods. One important aspect is the integrated evaluation of the seizure prediction characteristic of the developed predictors.

Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus.

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Fanny Gascuel

Full Text Available Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

Science.gov (United States)

Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

2013-01-01

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. PMID:23675291

Prediction of long-term precipitate evolution in austenitic heat-resistant steels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shim, Jae-Hyeok; Jung, Woo-Sang; Cho, Young Whan [Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Materials/Devices Div.; Kozeschnik, Ernst [Vienna Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. of Materials Science and Technology

2010-07-01

Numerical prediction of the long-term precipitate evolution in five different austenitic heat-resistant stainless steels, NF709, Super304H, Sanicro25, CF8C-PLUS and HTUPS has been carried out. MX and M{sub 23}C{sub 6} are predicted to remain as major precipitates during long-term aging in these steels. The addition of 3 wt% Cu produces very fine Cu-rich precipitates during aging in Super304H and Sanicro25. It is found that the amount of Z phase start to increase remarkably between 1,000 and 10,000 hours of aging at the expense of MX precipitates in the steels containing a high nitrogen content. However, the growth rate of Z phase is relatively slow and its average size reaches at most a few tens of nanometers after 100,000 hours of aging at 700 C, compared with 9-12% Cr ferritic/martensitic heat-resistant steels. The predicted precipitation sequence and precipitate size during aging are in general agreement with experimental observations. (orig.)

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance

OpenAIRE

Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2017-01-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term...

Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spruyt, A.; Lemaigre, V.; Salhi, B.; van Gucht, D.; Tibboel, H.; van Bockstaele, B.; de Houwer, J.; van Meerbeeck, J.; Nackaerts, K.

2015-01-01

Rationale: It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. Objectives: The main objective of

A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

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Xiaoping Yang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

Hanford grout: predicting long-term performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sewart, G.H.; Mitchell, D.H.; Treat, R.L.; McMakin, A.H.

1987-01-01

Grouted disposal is being planned for the low-level portion of liquid radioactive wastes at the Hanford site in Washington state. The performance of the disposal system must be such that it will protect people and the environment for thousands of years after disposal. To predict whether a specific grout disposal system will comply with existing and foreseen regulations, a performance assessment (PA) is performed. Long-term PAs are conducted for a range of performance conditions. Performance assessment is an inexact science. Quantifying projected impacts is especially difficult when only scant data exist on the behavior of certain components of the disposal system over thousands of years. To develop defensible results, we are honing the models and obtaining experimental data. The combination of engineered features and PA refinements is being used to ensure that Hanford grout will meet its principal goal: to protect people and the environment in the future

Patterns of persistence with pharmacological treatment among patients with current depressive episode and their impact on long-term outcome: a naturalistic study with 5-year follow-up

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Li K

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Kanglai Li,1,* Jiong Tao,2,* Yuemei Li,3 Minhua Chen,2 Xiuhua Wu,2 Yingtao Liao,2 Xiaolan Lin,4 Zhaoyu Gan2 1Department of Very Important Patient, the 3rd Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Psychiatry, the 3rd Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Obstetrics, Wuzhou Gongren Hospital, Wuzhou, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Infectious Diseases, the 3rd Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: The aim of the study was to describe and compare the patterns of medication persistence among patients with unipolar depression (UD or bipolar depression in a 5-year follow-up, and explore their impact on long-term outcome. Patients and methods: A total of 333 eligible patients with current major depressive episode were observed and followed up from the first index prescription for 5 years. Lack of persistence or treatment interruption was defined as a gap of at least 2 consecutive months without taking any medication. Time to lack of persistence in the first (TLP1 and the second (TLP2 episode of treatment, number of visits before the first treatment interruption (NV and number of treatment interruptions (NTI were measured. Results: During the 5-year follow-up, nearly 50% of patients experienced at least two times of treatment interruption. Pattern of medication persistence did not significantly differ between UD and bipolar disorder (BD patients. TLP1 was positively associated with TLP2. Shorter TLP1 predicted a higher possibility of subsequent visits because of recurrence or relapse and more NTI meant a lower likelihood of achieving full remission in the fifth year for both UD and BD patients. For UD patients, shorter TLP1 or less NV predicted a lower chance of achieving remission, while for BD patients

Long-term persistence with injectable therapy in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: an 18-year observational cohort study.

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Simon Zhornitsky

Full Text Available Disease modifying therapies (DMTs reduce the frequency of relapses and accumulation of disability in multiple sclerosis (MS. Long-term persistence with treatment is important to optimize treatment benefit. This long-term, cohort study was conducted at the Calgary MS Clinic. All consenting adults with relapsing-remitting MS who started either glatiramer acetate (GA or interferon-β 1a/1b (IFN-β between January 1st, 1996 and July 1st, 2011 were included. Follow-up continued to February 1st, 2014. Time-to-discontinuation of the initial and subsequently-prescribed DMTs (switches was analysed using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. Group differences were compared using log-rank tests and multivariable Cox regression models. Analysis included 1471 participants; 906 were initially prescribed GA and 565 were initially prescribed IFN-β. Follow-up information was available for 87%; 29 (2% were lost to follow-up and 160 (11% moved from Southern Alberta while still using DMT. Median time-to-discontinuation of all injectable DMTs was 11.1 years. Participants with greater disability at treatment initiation, those who started treatment before age 30, and those who started between 2006 and 2011 were more likely to discontinue use of all injectable DMTs. Median time-to-discontinuation of the initial DMT was 8.6 years. Those initially prescribed GA remained on treatment longer. Of 610 participants who discontinued injectable DMT, 331 (54% started an oral DMT, or a second-line DMT, or resumed injectable DMT after 90 days. Persistence with injectable DMTs was high in this long-term population-based study. Most participants who discontinued injectable DMT did not remain untreated. Further research is required to understand treatment outcomes and outcomes after stopping DMT.

Perceived stress and anhedonia predict short-and long-term weight change, respectively, in healthy adults.

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Ibrahim, Mostafa; Thearle, Marie S; Krakoff, Jonathan; Gluck, Marci E

2016-04-01

Perceived stress; emotional eating; anhedonia; depression and dietary restraint, hunger, and disinhibition have been studied as risk factors for obesity. However, the majority of studies have been cross-sectional and the directionality of these relationships remains unclear. In this longitudinal study, we assess their impact on future weight change. Psychological predictors of weight change in short- (6month) and long-term (>1year) periods were studied in 65 lean and obese individuals in two cohorts. Subjects participated in studies of food intake and metabolism that did not include any type of medication or weight loss interventions. They completed psychological questionnaires at baseline and weight change was monitored at follow-up visits. At six months, perceived stress predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.23, P=0.02). There was a significant interaction (r(2)=.38, P=0.009) between perceived stress and positive emotional eating, such that higher scores in both predicted greater weight gain, while those with low stress but high emotional eating scores lost weight. For long-term, higher anhedonia scores predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.24, P=0.04). Depression moderated these effects such that higher scores in both predicted weight gain but higher depression and lower anhedonia scores predicted weight loss. There are different behavioral determinants for short- and long-term weight change. Targeting perceived stress may help with short-term weight loss while depression and anhedonia may be better targets for long-term weight regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

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Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

2016-10-15

The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qijie

2015-08-01

The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

Resting regulatory CD4 T cells: a site of HIV persistence in patients on long-term effective antiretroviral therapy.

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Tu-Anh Tran

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In HIV-infected patients on long-term HAART, virus persistence in resting long-lived CD4 T cells is a major barrier to curing the infection. Cell quiescence, by favouring HIV latency, reduces the risk of recognition and cell destruction by cytotoxic lymphocytes. Several cell-activation-based approaches have been proposed to disrupt cell quiescence and then virus latency, but these approaches have not eradicated the virus. CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells (Tregs are a CD4+ T-cell subset with particular activation properties. We investigated the role of these cells in virus persistence in patients on long-term HAART. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found evidence of infection of resting Tregs (HLADR(-CD69(-CD25(hiFoxP3+CD4+ T cells purified from patients on prolonged HAART. HIV DNA harbouring cells appear more abundant in the Treg subset than in non-Tregs. The half-life of the Treg reservoir was estimated at 20 months. Since Tregs from patients on prolonged HAART showed hyporesponsiveness to cell activation and inhibition of HIV-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte-related functions upon activation, therapeutics targeting cell quiescence to induce virus expression may not be appropriate for purging the Treg reservoir. CONCLUSIONS: Our results identify Tregs as a particular compartment within the latent reservoir that may require a specific approach for its purging.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

2016-01-01

Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

Long-Term Persistence of Pesticides and TPs in Archived Agricultural Soil Samples and Comparison with Pesticide Application.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiaia-Hernandez, Aurea C; Keller, Armin; Wächter, Daniel; Steinlin, Christine; Camenzuli, Louise; Hollender, Juliane; Krauss, Martin

2017-09-19

For polar and more degradable pesticides, not many data on long-term persistence in soil under field conditions and real application practices exist. To assess the persistence of pesticides in soil, a multiple-compound screening method (log K ow 1.7-5.5) was developed based on pressurized liquid extraction, QuEChERS and LC-HRMS. The method was applied to study 80 polar pesticides and >90 transformation products (TPs) in archived topsoil samples from the Swiss Soil Monitoring Network (NABO) from 1995 to 2008 with known pesticide application patterns. The results reveal large variations between crop type and field sites. For the majority of the sites 10-15 pesticides were identified with a detection rate of 45% at concentrations between 1 and 330 μg/kg dw in soil. Furthermore, TPs were detected in 47% of the cases where the "parent-compound" was applied. Overall, residues of about 80% of all applied pesticides could be detected with half of these found as TPs with a persistence of more than a decade.

Persistent, Long-term Cerebral White Matter Changes after Sports-Related Repetitive Head Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Bazarian, Jeffrey J.; Zhu, Tong; Zhong, Jianhui; Janigro, Damir; Rozen, Eric; Roberts, Andrew; Javien, Hannah; Merchant-Borna, Kian; Abar, Beau; Blackman, Eric G.

2014-01-01

Introduction Repetitive head impacts (RHI) sustained in contact sports are thought to be necessary for the long-term development of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). Our objectives were to: 1) characterize the magnitude and persistence of RHI-induced white matter (WM) changes; 2) determine their relationship to kinematic measures of RHI; and 3) explore their clinical relevance. Methods Prospective, observational study of 10 Division III college football players and 5 non-athlete controls during the 2011-12 season. All subjects underwent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), physiologic, cognitive, and balance testing at pre-season (Time 1), post-season (Time 2), and after 6-months of no-contact rest (Time 3). Head impact measures were recorded using helmet-mounted accelerometers. The percentage of whole-brain WM voxels with significant changes in fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) from Time 1 to 2, and Time 1 to 3 was determined for each subject and correlated to head impacts and clinical measures. Results Total head impacts for the season ranged from 431–1,850. No athlete suffered a clinically evident concussion. Compared to controls, athletes experienced greater changes in FA and MD from Time 1 to 2 as well as Time 1 to 3; most differences at Time 2 persisted to Time 3. Among athletes, the percentage of voxels with decreased FA from Time 1 to 2 was positively correlated with several helmet impact measures. The persistence of WM changes from Time 1 to 3 was also associated with changes in serum ApoA1 and S100B autoantibodies. WM changes were not consistently associated with cognition or balance. Conclusions A single football season of RHIs without clinically-evident concussion resulted in WM changes that correlated with multiple helmet impact measures and persisted following 6 months of no-contact rest. This lack of WM recovery could potentially contribute to cumulative WM changes with subsequent RHI exposures. PMID:24740265

Current strategies for non-pharmacological therapy of long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teiichi Yamane, MD, PhD

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Non-pharmacological rhythm control of atrial fibrillation (AF is becoming increasingly important in our aging society. Advancement of catheter ablation techniques in the last decade has provided a cure for AF patients, with a nearly established efficiency for paroxysmal cases. However, since ablation of persistent/chronic AF cases is still challenging, early treatment of paroxysmal AF before transformation to the persistent/chronic form is mandatory. Although there is a consensus that pulmonary vein isolation is the first-line approach for ablation of long-standing persistent AF, similar to that for paroxysmal AF, there are still wide variations in the adjunctive approach to modify the atrial substrate of persistent AF (anatomical linear ablation, electrogram-based complex fractionated atrial electrogram ablation, ganglionated plexus ablation, etc.. Since data comparing the effectiveness of these adjunctive approaches are still lacking, large-scale controlled trials evaluating the effect of catheter ablation in diverse patient populations on a long-term basis are needed to establish the appropriate approach for long-standing persistent AF. Furthermore, the development of de novo ablation methods (new energies, new targets, etc. is expected to improve ablation outcome in patients with long-standing persistent AF.

Non-invasive prediction of catheter ablation outcome in persistent atrial fibrillation by fibrillatory wave amplitude computation in multiple electrocardiogram leads.

Science.gov (United States)

Zarzoso, Vicente; Latcu, Decebal G; Hidalgo-Muñoz, Antonio R; Meo, Marianna; Meste, Olivier; Popescu, Irina; Saoudi, Nadir

2016-12-01

Catheter ablation (CA) of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) is challenging, and reported results are capable of improvement. A better patient selection for the procedure could enhance its success rate while avoiding the risks associated with ablation, especially for patients with low odds of favorable outcome. CA outcome can be predicted non-invasively by atrial fibrillatory wave (f-wave) amplitude, but previous works focused mostly on manual measures in single electrocardiogram (ECG) leads only. To assess the long-term prediction ability of f-wave amplitude when computed in multiple ECG leads. Sixty-two patients with persistent AF (52 men; mean age 61.5±10.4years) referred for CA were enrolled. A standard 1-minute 12-lead ECG was acquired before the ablation procedure for each patient. F-wave amplitudes in different ECG leads were computed by a non-invasive signal processing algorithm, and combined into a mutivariate prediction model based on logistic regression. During an average follow-up of 13.9±8.3months, 47 patients had no AF recurrence after ablation. A lead selection approach relying on the Wald index pointed to I, V1, V2 and V5 as the most relevant ECG leads to predict jointly CA outcome using f-wave amplitudes, reaching an area under the curve of 0.854, and improving on single-lead amplitude-based predictors. Analysing the f-wave amplitude in several ECG leads simultaneously can significantly improve CA long-term outcome prediction in persistent AF compared with predictors based on single-lead measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers.

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Spruyt, Adriaan; Lemaigre, Valentine; Salhi, Bihiyga; Van Gucht, Dinska; Tibboel, Helen; Van Bockstaele, Bram; De Houwer, Jan; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; Nackaerts, Kristiaan

2015-07-01

It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues and long-term relapse in abstaining smokers. Implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues were assessed by means of the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and the evaluative priming task (EPT). Both measures were completed by a group of smokers who volunteered to quit smoking (patient group) and a group of nonsmokers (control group). Participants in the patient group completed these measures twice: once prior to smoking cessation and once after smoking cessation. Relapse was assessed by means of short telephone survey, 6 months after completion of the second test session. EPT scores obtained prior to smoking cessation were related to long-term relapse and correlated with self-reported nicotine dependence as well as daily cigarette consumption. In contrast, none of the behavioral outcome measures were found to correlate with the IAT scores. These findings corroborate the idea that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues are critically involved in long-term relapse. A potential explanation for the divergent findings obtained with the IAT and EPT is provided.

Long-term future risk of severe exacerbations: Distinct 5-year trajectories of problematic asthma.

Science.gov (United States)

Yii, A C A; Tan, J H Y; Lapperre, T S; Chan, A K W; Low, S Y; Ong, T H; Tan, K L; Chotirmall, S H; Sterk, P J; Koh, M S

2017-09-01

Assessing future risk of exacerbations is an important component of asthma management. Existing studies have investigated short- but not long-term risk. Problematic asthma patients with unfavorable long-term disease trajectory and persistently frequent severe exacerbations need to be identified early to guide treatment. To identify distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates among "problematic asthma" patients and develop a risk score to predict the most unfavorable trajectory. Severe exacerbation rates over five years for 177 "problematic asthma" patients presenting to a specialist asthma clinic were tracked. Distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates were identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Baseline predictors of trajectory were identified and used to develop a clinical risk score for predicting the most unfavorable trajectory. Three distinct trajectories were found: 58.5% had rare intermittent severe exacerbations ("infrequent"), 32.0% had frequent severe exacerbations at baseline but improved subsequently ("nonpersistently frequent"), and 9.5% exhibited persistently frequent severe exacerbations, with the highest incidence of near-fatal asthma ("persistently frequent"). A clinical risk score composed of ≥2 severe exacerbations in the past year (+2 points), history of near-fatal asthma (+1 point), body mass index ≥25kg/m 2 (+1 point), obstructive sleep apnea (+1 point), gastroesophageal reflux (+1 point), and depression (+1 point) was predictive of the "persistently frequent" trajectory (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.84, sensitivity 72.2%, specificity 81.1% using cutoff ≥3 points). The trajectories and clinical risk score had excellent performance in an independent validation cohort. Patients with problematic asthma follow distinct illness trajectories over a period of five years. We have derived and validated a clinical risk score that accurately identifies patients who will have persistently

Environmental controls on spatial patterns in the long-term persistence of giant kelp in central California

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Mary Alida; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Bell, Tom W.; Raimondi, Peter T.; Edwards, Christopher A.; Drake, Patrick T.; Erikson, Li H.; Storlazzi, Curt

2016-01-01

As marine management is moving towards the practice of protecting static areas, it is 44 important to make sure protected areas capture and protect persistent populations. Rocky reefs in 45 many temperate areas worldwide serve as habitat for canopy forming macroalgae and these 46 structure forming species of kelps (order Laminariales) often serve as important habitat for a great 47 diversity of species. Macrocystis pyrifera is the most common canopy forming kelp species found 48 along the coast of California but the distribution and abundance of M. pyrifera varies in space and 49 time. The purpose of this study is to determine what environmental parameters are correlated with 50 the spatial and temporal persistence of M. pyrifera along the central coast of California and how 51 well those environmental parameters can be used to predict areas where M. pyrifera is more likely 52 to persist. Nine environmental variables considered in this study included depth of the seafloor, 53 structure of the rocky reef, proportion of rocky reef, size of kelp patch, biomass of kelp within a 54 patch, distance from the edge of a kelp patch, sea surface temperature, wave orbital velocities, and 55 population connectivity of individual kelp patches. Using a generalized linear mixed effects model 56 (GLMM), the persistence of M. pyrifera was significantly associated with seven of the nine 57 variables considered: depth, complexity of the rocky reef, proportion of rock, patch biomass, 58 distance from the edge of a patch, population connectivity, and wave-orbital velocities. These 59 seven environmental variables were then used to predict the persistence of kelp across the central 60 coast and these predictions were compared to a reserved dataset of M. pyrifera persistence, which 61 was not used in the creation of the GLMM. The environmental variables were shown to accurately 62 predict the persistence of M. pyrifera within the central coast of California (r = 0.71, P<0.001). 63 Because

Prostate-specific antigen and long-term prediction of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørsted, David Dynnes; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Jensen, Gorm B

2012-01-01

It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population.......It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population....

Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-01-01

In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Mei [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Singh, Vijay P. [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

2016-07-15

In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

Long-term use of antiplatelet drugs by stroke patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ostergaard, Kamilla; Hallas, Jesper; Bak, Søren

2012-01-01

PURPOSE: Treatment with antiplatelet drugs is a key element of secondary stroke prevention. We investigated long-term antiplatelet drug use in stroke patients with a focus on non-persistence. METHODS: Population-based prescription register data were used to determine antiplatelet drug use...... the dosage of a previous prescription had run out, or within 180 days after discharge. Cox regression was used to identify risk factors for non-persistence. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 503 patients with ischaemic stroke discharged in 1999-2001. During follow-up (median 2.8 years, interquartile range 0......-persistent. Stroke severity was inversely associated with the risk of non-persistence [NIHSS score on admission 0-3 (reference); 4-6: hazard risk (HR) 0.87, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.61-1.25; 7+: HR 0.47, 95 % CI 0.29-0.74]. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term non-persistence with antiplatelet treatment was high and more...

Major depressive disorder subtypes to predict long-term course

Science.gov (United States)

van Loo, Hanna M.; Cai, Tianxi; Gruber, Michael J.; Li, Junlong; de Jonge, Peter; Petukhova, Maria; Rose, Sherri; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoevers, Robert A.; Wardenaar, Klaas J.; Wilcox, Marsha A.; Al-Hamzawi, Ali Obaid; Andrade, Laura Helena; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Bunting, Brendan; Fayyad, John; Florescu, Silvia E.; Gureje, Oye; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Levinson, Daphna; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Nakane, Yoshibumi; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Xavier, Miguel; Zarkov, Zahari; Kessler, Ronald C.

2016-01-01

Background Variation in course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing subtype distinctions. A new subtyping approach is considered here. Methods Two data mining techniques, ensemble recursive partitioning and Lasso generalized linear models (GLMs) followed by k-means cluster analysis, are used to search for subtypes based on index episode symptoms predicting subsequent MDD course in the World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. The WMH surveys are community surveys in 16 countries. Lifetime DSM-IV MDD was reported by 8,261 respondents. Retrospectively reported outcomes included measures of persistence (number of years with an episode; number of with an episode lasting most of the year) and severity (hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Results Recursive partitioning found significant clusters defined by the conjunctions of early onset, suicidality, and anxiety (irritability, panic, nervousness-worry-anxiety) during the index episode. GLMs found additional associations involving a number of individual symptoms. Predicted values of the four outcomes were strongly correlated. Cluster analysis of these predicted values found three clusters having consistently high, intermediate, or low predicted scores across all outcomes. The high-risk cluster (30.0% of respondents) accounted for 52.9-69.7% of high persistence and severity and was most strongly predicted by index episode severe dysphoria, suicidality, anxiety, and early onset. A total symptom count, in comparison, was not a significant predictor. Conclusions Despite being based on retrospective reports, results suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made using data mining methods. Further studies are needed to test and expand these results with prospective data. PMID:24425049

Early Posttransplant Tryptophan Metabolism Predicts Long-term Outcome of Human Kidney Transplantation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vavrincova-Yaghi, Diana; Seelen, Marc A.; Kema, Ido P.; Deelman, Leo E.; Heuvel, van den Marius; Breukelman, Henk; Van den Eynde, Benoit J.; Henning, Rob H.; van Goor, Harry; Sandovici, Maria

Background. Chronic transplant dysfunction (CTD) is the leading cause of long-term loss of the renal allograft. So far, no single test is available to reliably predict the risk for CTD. Monitoring of tryptophan (trp) metabolism through indoleamine 2.3-dioxygenase (IDO) has been previously proposed

Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chia-Nan; Chen, Rong-Her; Chen, Kuo-Sheng

2006-02-01

The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

Uncovering Camouflage: Amygdala Activation Predicts Long-Term Memory of Induced Perceptual Insight

Science.gov (United States)

Ludmer, Rachel; Dudai, Yadin; Rubin, Nava

2012-01-01

What brain mechanisms underlie learning of new knowledge from single events? We studied encoding in long-term memory of a unique type of one-shot experience, induced perceptual insight. While undergoing an fMRI brain scan, participants viewed degraded images of real-world pictures where the underlying objects were hard to recognize (‘camouflage’), followed by brief exposures to the original images (‘solution’), which led to induced insight (“Aha!”). A week later, participants’ memory was tested; a solution image was classified as ‘remembered’ if detailed perceptual knowledge was elicited from the camouflage image alone. During encoding, subsequently remembered images enjoyed higher activity in mid-level visual cortex and medial frontal cortex, but most pronouncedly in the amygdala, whose activity could be used to predict which solutions will remain in long-term memory. Our findings extend the known roles of amygdala in memory to include promoting of long-term memory of the sudden reorganization of internal representations. PMID:21382558

A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

Long-term dependence in exchange rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Karytinos

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The extent to which exchange rates of four major currencies against the Greek Drachma exhibit long-term dependence is investigated using a R/S analysis testing framework. We show that both classic R/S analysis and the modified R/S statistic if enhanced by bootstrapping techniques can be proven very reliable tools to this end. Our findings support persistence and long-term dependence with non-periodic cycles for the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc series. In addition a noisy chaos explanation is favored over fractional Brownian motion. On the contrary, the US Dollar and British Pound were found to exhibit a much more random behavior and lack of any long-term structure.

Differential maps, difference maps, interpolated maps, and long term prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talman, R.

1988-06-01

Mapping techniques may be thought to be attractive for the long term prediction of motion in accelerators, especially because a simple map can approximately represent an arbitrarily complicated lattice. The intention of this paper is to develop prejudices as to the validity of such methods by applying them to a simple, exactly solveable, example. It is shown that a numerical interpolation map, such as can be generated in the accelerator tracking program TEAPOT, predicts the evolution more accurately than an analytically derived differential map of the same order. Even so, in the presence of ''appreciable'' nonlinearity, it is shown to be impractical to achieve ''accurate'' prediction beyond some hundreds of cycles of oscillation. This suggests that the value of nonlinear maps is restricted to the parameterization of only the ''leading'' deviation from linearity. 41 refs., 6 figs

Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

2014-07-01

Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

Persistence of radiation-induced chromosome aberrations in a long-term cell culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Duran, Assumpta; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Caballín, María Rosa; Ribas, Montserrat; Barrios, Leonardo

2009-04-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the persistence of chromosome aberrations induced by X rays. FISH painting and mFISH techniques were applied to long-term cultures of irradiated cells. With painting, at 2 Gy the frequency of apparently simple translocations remained almost invariable during all the culture, whereas at 4 Gy a rapid decline was observed between the first and the second samples, followed by a slight decrease until the end of the culture. Apparently simple dicentrics and complex aberrations disappeared after the first sample at 2 and 4 Gy. By mFISH, at 2 Gy the frequency of complete plus one-way translocations remained invariable between the first and last sample, but at 4 Gy a 60% decline was observed. True incomplete simple translocations disappeared at 2 and 4 Gy, indicating that incompleteness could be a factor to consider when the persistence of translocations is analyzed. The analysis by mFISH showed that the frequency of complex aberrations and their complexity increased with dose and tended to disappear in the last sample. Our results indicate that the influence of dose on the decrease in the frequency of simple translocations with time postirradiation cannot be fully explained by the disappearance of true incomplete translocations and complex aberrations. The chromosome involvement was random for radiation-induced exchange aberrations and non-random for total aberrations. Chromosome 7 showed the highest deviations from expected, being less and more involved than expected in the first and last samples, respectively. Some preferential chromosome-chromosome associations were observed, including a coincidence with a cluster from radiogenic chromosome aberrations described in other studies.

Near-Infrared Quantum Cutting Long Persistent Luminescence

OpenAIRE

Zou, Zehua; Feng, Lin; Cao, Cheng; Zhang, Jiachi; Wang, Yuhua

2016-01-01

By combining the unique features of the quantum cutting luminescence and long persistent luminescence, we design a new concept called ?near-infrared quantum cutting long persistent luminescence (NQPL)?, which makes it possible for us to obtain highly efficient (>100%) near-infrared long persistent luminescence in theory. Guided by the NQPL concept, we fabricate the first NQPL phosphor Ca2Ga2GeO7:Pr3+,Yb3+. It reveals that both the two-step energy transfer of model (I) and the one-step energy ...

Prediction of long-term crustal movement for geological disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Tabei, Kazuto; Koide, Hitoshi; Tashiro, Toshiharu

2000-01-01

Long-term stability of the geological environment is essential for the safe geological disposal of radioactive waste, for which it is necessary to predict the crustal movement during an assessment period. As a case study, a numerical analysis method for the prediction of crustal movement in Japan is proposed. A three-dimensional elastic analysis by FEM for the geological block structure of the Kinki region and the Awaji-Rokko area is presented. Stability analysis for a disposal cavern is also investigated. (author)

The Persistence of Long Work Hours

OpenAIRE

Robert Drago; David Black; Mark Wooden

2005-01-01

Previous research hypothesizes that long working hours are related to consumerism, the ideal worker norm, high levels of human capital, and a high cost-of-job-loss. The authors test these hypotheses using panel data on working hours for an Australian sample of full-time employed workers. Analyses include a static cross-sectional model and a persistence model for long hours over time. The results suggest that long hours (50 or more hours in a usual week) are often persistent, and provide stron...

Fluoxetine Inhibits Natural Decay of Long-Term Memory via Akt/GSK-3β Signaling.

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Jee Hyun; Zhang, JiaBao; Ko, Sang Yoon; Kwon, Huiyoung; Jeon, Se Jin; Park, Se Jin; Jung, Jiwook; Kim, Byung C; Lee, Young Choon; Kim, Dong Hyun; Ryu, Jong Hoon

2018-02-09

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the natural decay of long-term memory can help us find means of extending the duration of long-term memory. However, the neurobiological processes involved in the decay of long-term memory are poorly understood. In the present study, we examined the effect of acute and chronic treatment of fluoxetine on natural decay of long-term memory and the possible mechanism. Late administration of fluoxetine prolonged the persistence of long-term memory in mice, as demonstrated by object location recognition and Barnes maze tests. Fluoxetine altered Akt/glycogen synthase kinase-3β (GSK-3β)/β-catenin signaling in the hippocampus. Late short- and long-term pharmacological inhibition of GSK-3β mimicked the effect of fluoxetine on memory persistence. Pharmacological inhibition of Akt blocked the effect of fluoxetine on memory persistence. Finally, late infusion of fluoxetine increased hippocampal long-term potentiation (LTP) and pharmacological inhibition of GSK-3β blocked the natural decline in LTP. These results demonstrate that GSK-3β might be a key molecule in memory decay process, and fluoxetine extends the period of long-term memory maintenance via Akt/GSK-3β signaling.

Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

Science.gov (United States)

Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

2009-01-01

In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

Predicting long-term moisture contents of earthen covers at uranium mill tailings sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gee, G.W.; Nielson, K.K.; Rogers, V.C.

1984-09-01

The three methods for long-term moisture prediction covered in this report are: estimates from water retention (permanent wilting point) data, correlation with climate and soil type, and detailed model simulation. The test results have shown: soils vary greatly in residual moisture. Expected long-term moisture saturation ratios (based on generalized soil characteristics) range from 0.2 to 0.8 for soils ranging in texture from sand to clay, respectively. These values hold for noncompacted field soils. Measured radon diffusion coefficients for soils at 15-bar water contents ranged from 5.0E-2 cm 2 /s to 5.0E-3 cm 2 /s for sands and clays, respectively, at typical field densities. In contrast, fine-textured pit-run earthen materials, subjected to optimum compaction (>85% Proctor density) and dried to the 15-bar water content, ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 moisture saturation. Compacted pit-run soils at these moisture contents exhibited radon diffusion coefficients as low as 3.0E-4 cm 2 /s. The residual moisture saturation for cover soils is not known since no engineered barrier has been in place for more than a few years. A comparison of methods for predicting moisture saturation indicates that model simulations are useful for predicting effects of climatic changes on residual soil moisture, but that long-term moisture also can be predicted with some degree of confidence using generalized soil properties or empirical correlations based both on soils and climatic information. The optimal soil cover design will likely include more than one layer of soil. A two-layer system using a thick (1-m minimum) plant root zone of uncompacted soil placed over a moistened, tightly compacted fine-textured soil is recommended. This design concept has been tested successfully at the Grand Junction, Colorado, tailings piles

Long-term efficacy and safety of omalizumab in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Tianwen; Wang, Shaobin; Xu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Chao; Zhao, Yun; Hu, Yue; Cao, Chao; Ying, Songmin; Chen, Zhihua; Li, Wen; Wu, Bin; Shen, Huahao

2015-01-01

Currently, limited information is available to clinicians regarding the long-term efficacy of omalizumab treatment for allergic asthma. In this report, we aimed to (i) systematically review the evidence regarding the long-term efficacy of omalizumab in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma, and to (ii) discuss the cost-effectiveness evidence published for omalizumab in this patient population. A comprehensive search for randomized controlled trials (RCTs; ≥52 weeks) was performed, and six studies met our final inclusion criteria (n = 2,749). Omalizumab was associated with significant improvements in quality of life and the Global Evaluation of Treatment Effectiveness. Omalizumab also allowed patients to completely withdraw from inhaled corticosteroid therapy and did not increase the overall incidence of adverse events. However, there was insufficient evidence that omalizumab reduced the incidence of exacerbations, and the cost-effectiveness of omalizumab varied across studies. Our data indicated that omalizumab use for at least 52 weeks in patients with persistent uncontrolled allergic asthma was accompanied by an acceptable safety profile, but it lacked effect on the asthma exacerbations. Use of omalizumab was associated with a higher cost than conventional therapy, but these increases may be cost-effective if the medication is used in patients with severe allergic asthma. PMID:25645133

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Prediction of the Long Term Cooling Performance for the 3-Pin Fuel Test Loop

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, S. K.; Chi, D. Y.; Sim, B. S.; Park, K. N.; Ahn, S. H.; Lee, J. M.; Lee, C. Y.; Kim, H. R

2005-12-15

In the long term cooling phase that the emergency cooling water injection ends, the performance of the residual heat removal for the 3-pin fuel test loop has been predicted by a simplified heat transfer model. In the long term cooling phase the residual heat is 1323W for PWR fuel test mode and 1449W for CANDU fuel test mode. The each residual heat is assumed as 2% of the fission power of the test fuel used in the anticipated operational occurrence and design basis accident analyses. The each fission power used for the analyses is 105% of the rated fission power in the normal operation. In the long term cooling phase the residual heat is removed to the HANARO pool through the double pressure vessels of the in-pile test section. Saturate pooling boiling is assumed on the test fuel and condensation heat transfer is expected on the inner wall of the fuel carrier and the flow divider. Natural convection heat transfer on a heated vertical wall is also assumed on the outer wall of the outer pressure vessel. The conduction heat transfer is only considered in the gap between the double pressure vessels charged with neon gas and in the downcomer filled with coolant. The heat transfer rate between the coolant temperature of 152 .deg. C in the in-pile test section and the water temperature of 45 .deg. C in the HANARO pool is predicted as about 1666W. The 152 .deg. C is the saturate temperature of the coolant pressure predicted from the MARS code. The cooling capacity of 1666W is greater than the residual heats of 1323W and 1449W. Consequently the long term cooling performance of the 3-pin fuel test loop is sufficient for the anticipated operational occurrences and design basis accidents.

Serum YKL-40 predicts long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harutyunyan, Marina; Gøtze, Jens P; Winkel, Per

2013-01-01

We investigated whether the inflammatory biomarker YKL-40 could improve the long-term prediction of death made by common risk factors plus high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal-pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD)....

Antioxidant defenses predict long-term survival in a passerine bird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicola Saino

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Normal and pathological processes entail the production of oxidative substances that can damage biological molecules and harm physiological functions. Organisms have evolved complex mechanisms of antioxidant defense, and any imbalance between oxidative challenge and antioxidant protection can depress fitness components and accelerate senescence. While the role of oxidative stress in pathogenesis and aging has been studied intensively in humans and model animal species under laboratory conditions, there is a dearth of knowledge on its role in shaping life-histories of animals under natural selection regimes. Yet, given the pervasive nature and likely fitness consequences of oxidative damage, it can be expected that the need to secure efficient antioxidant protection is powerful in molding the evolutionary ecology of animals. Here, we test whether overall antioxidant defense varies with age and predicts long-term survival, using a wild population of a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, as a model.Plasma antioxidant capacity (AOC of breeding individuals was measured using standard protocols and annual survival was monitored over five years (2006-2010 on a large sample of selection episodes. AOC did not covary with age in longitudinal analyses after discounting the effect of selection. AOC positively predicted annual survival independently of sex. Individuals were highly consistent in their relative levels of AOC, implying the existence of additive genetic variance and/or environmental (including early maternal components consistently acting through their lives.Using longitudinal data we showed that high levels of antioxidant protection positively predict long-term survival in a wild animal population. Present results are therefore novel in disclosing a role for antioxidant protection in determining survival under natural conditions, strongly demanding for more longitudinal eco-physiological studies of life-histories in

Magnitude of increase in QTc interval after initiation of dofetilide in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation is associated with increased rates of pharmacological cardioversion and long-term freedom from recurrent atrial fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Henry D; Waks, Jonathan W; Steinhaus, Daniel A; Zimetbaum, Peter

2016-07-01

Dofetilide is a class III antiarrhythmic drug approved for the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). Dofetilide-induced corrected QT (QTc) interval prolongation is a surrogate for the degree of drug effect, but the relationships between drug-induced QTc interval prolongation, pharmacological cardioversion (PCV), and freedom from recurrent AF are unclear. The purpose of this study was to assess associations between QTc interval change during dofetilide initiation and PCV and long-term AF recurrence. We performed retrospective analyses of a prospective cohort of patients with AF admitted for dofetilide initiation between 2001 and 2014. Clinical characteristics and electrocardiographic variables were assessed. We evaluated outcomes of successful PCV in patients with persistent AF and time to recurrence of AF in patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF. During the study, 243 patients with persistent AF and 176 patients with paroxysmal AF initiated dofetilide. PCV occurred in 93/243 (41.7%) patients with persistent AF. After multivariable adjustment, QTc interval change was associated with PCV (adjusted odds ratio 1.21; P = .003 per 10-ms QTc increase). Inhospital QTc interval change was associated with long-term freedom from AF in patients with persistent AF (adjusted hazard ratio 0.92; P = .011 at 4 years per 10-ms QTc increase), but not in patients with paroxysmal AF. In patients with persistent AF, PCV was also associated with long-term freedom from recurrent AF (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62; P = .009 at 4 years). The magnitude of QTc interval prolongation during dofetilide initiation is an independent predictor of successful PCV and long-term freedom from arrhythmia in patients with persistent AF. QTc interval change had no association with AF recurrence in patients with paroxysmal AF, suggesting that different mechanisms of arrhythmogenesis may be operant in different AF types. Copyright © 2016 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bennedsen, Mikkel; Lunde, Asger; Pakkanen, Mikko

behavior) from long memory and persistence (long-term behavior) in a simple and parsimonious way, which allows us to successfully model volatility at all intraday time scales. Our prime model is based on the so-called Brownian semistationary process and we derive a number of theoretical properties...... measures of close to two thousand individual US equities, we find that both roughness and persistence appear to be universal properties of volatility. Inspired by the empirical findings, we introduce a new class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models, capable of decoupling roughness (short-term...

Altered duodenal microbiota composition in celiac disease patients suffering from persistent symptoms on a long-term gluten-free diet.

Science.gov (United States)

Wacklin, Pirjo; Laurikka, Pilvi; Lindfors, Katri; Collin, Pekka; Salmi, Teea; Lähdeaho, Marja-Leena; Saavalainen, Päivi; Mäki, Markku; Mättö, Jaana; Kurppa, Kalle; Kaukinen, Katri

2014-12-01

A significant fraction of celiac disease patients suffer from persistent symptoms despite a long-term gluten-free diet (GFD) and normalized small bowel mucosa. The commonly suggested reasons, such as inadvertent gluten-intake or presence of other gastrointestinal disease, do not explain the symptoms in all these patients. Recently, alterations in intestinal microbiota have been associated with autoimmune disorders, including celiac disease. This led us to test a hypothesis that abnormal intestinal microbiota may be associated with persisting gastrointestinal symptoms in treated celiac disease patients. Duodenal microbiota was analyzed in 18 GFD-treated patients suffering from persistent symptoms and 18 treated patients without symptoms by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing. The celiac disease patients had been following a strict GFD for several years and had restored small bowel mucosa and negative celiac autoantibodies. Their symptoms on GFD were assessed with Gastrointestinal Symptom Rating Scale. The results of several clustering methods showed that the treated celiac disease patients with persistent symptoms were colonized by different duodenal microbiota in comparison with patients without symptoms. The treated patients with persistent symptoms had a higher relative abundance of Proteobacteria (P=0.04) and a lower abundance of Bacteroidetes (P=0.01) and Firmicutes (P=0.05). Moreover, their microbial richness was reduced. The results indicated intestinal dysbiosis in patients with persistent symptoms even while adhering to a strict GFD. Our findings indicate that dysbiosis of microbiota is associated with persistent gastrointestinal symptoms in treated celiac disease patients and open new possibilities to treat this subgroup of patients.

Trophic position and metabolic rate predict the long-term decay process of radioactive cesium in fish: a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hideyuki Doi

Full Text Available Understanding the long-term behavior of radionuclides in organisms is important for estimating possible associated risks to human beings and ecosystems. As radioactive cesium (¹³⁷Cs can be accumulated in organisms and has a long physical half-life, it is very important to understand its long-term decay in organisms; however, the underlying mechanisms determining the decay process are little known. We performed a meta-analysis to collect published data on the long-term ¹³⁷Cs decay process in fish species to estimate biological (metabolic rate and ecological (trophic position, habitat, and diet type influences on this process. From the linear mixed models, we found that 1 trophic position could predict the day of maximum ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish; and 2 the metabolic rate of the fish species and environmental water temperature could predict ecological half-lives and decay rates for fish species. These findings revealed that ecological and biological traits are important to predict the long-term decay process of ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish.

Long-stay psychiatric patients: a prospective study revealing persistent antipsychotic-induced movement disorder.

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P Roberto Bakker

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the frequency of persistent drug-induced movement disorders namely, tardive dyskinesia (TD, parkinsonism, akathisia and tardive dystonia in a representative sample of long-stay patients with chronic severe mental illness. METHOD: Naturalistic study of 209, mainly white, antipsychotic-treated patients, mostly diagnosed with psychotic disorder. Of this group, the same rater examined 194 patients at least two times over a 4-year period, with a mean follow-up time of 1.1 years, with validated scales for TD, parkinsonism, akathisia, and tardive dystonia. RESULTS: The frequencies of persistent movement disorders in the sample were 28.4% for TD, 56.2% for parkinsonism, 4.6% for akathisia and 5.7% for tardive dystonia. Two-thirds of the participants displayed at least one type of persistent movement disorder. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent movement disorder continues to be the norm for long-stay patients with chronic mental illness and long-term antipsychotic treatment. Measures are required to remedy this situation.

Taylor Series-Based Long-Term Creep-Life Prediction of Alloy 617

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Woo Gon; Kim, Yong Wan; Park, Jae Young; Kim, Soen Jin

2010-01-01

In this study, a Taylor series (T-S) model based on the Arrhenius, McVetty, and Monkman-Grant equations was developed using a mathematical analysis. In order to reduce fitting errors, the McVetty equation was transformed by considering the first three terms of the Taylor series equation. The model parameters were accurately determined by a statistical technique of maximum likelihood estimation, and this model was applied to the creep data of alloy 617. The T-S model results showed better agreement with the experimental data than other models such as the Eno, exponential, and L-M models. In particular, the T-S model was converted into an isothermal Taylor series (IT-S) model that can predict the creep strength at a given temperature. It was identified that the estimations obtained using the converted ITS model was better than that obtained using the T-S model for predicting the long-term creep life of alloy 617

Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Pawar, R.

2016-12-01

Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management

Long-term follow-up of patients treated for psychotic symptoms that persist after stopping illicit drug use.

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Deng, Xianhua; Huang, Zhibiao; Li, Xuewu; Li, Yi; Wang, Yi; Wu, Dongling; Gao, Beiling; Yang, Xi

2012-10-01

The long-term outcome of patients diagnosed with drug-induced psychotic disorders in China is unknown. Assess the course of illness and severity of psychiatric symptoms in patients previously admitted to a psychiatric hospital for treatment of psychotic symptoms that were induced by the use of illicit drugs. Patients with psychotic symptoms at the time of their first psychiatric admission who had used illicit drugs in the month prior to admission were followed up 13 to 108 months after admission. Patients and coresident family members were interviewed about post-discharge drug use and psychotic symptoms. The 258 identified patients were primarily young, unemployed males whose most common drug of abuse was methamphetamines and who had been abusing drugs for an average of 7 years at the time of admission. Among these patients 189 (73%) were located and reinterviewed; 168 (89%) had restarted illicit drug use and 25 (13%) had required rehospitalization over the follow-up period. In 114 patients (60%) the psychotic symptoms resolved in less than 1 month after stopping the drugs, in 56 (30%) the symptoms persisted for 1 to 6 months, and in 19 (10%) the symptoms persisted for longer than 6 months (in 8 of these the diagnosis had changed to schizophrenia). Compared to the other two groups, patients whose symptoms persisted more than 6 months were more likely to have a family history of mental illness, an earlier age of onset and a longer duration of drug abuse prior to the index admission; they were also more likely to have been re-hospitalized during the follow-up period and to have psychotic symptoms at the time of follow-up. Most patients with substance-induced psychotic disorders in our sample had a good long-term prognosis but those who started illegal drug use early, used drugs for prolonged periods, or had a family history of psychiatric illnesses were more likely to develop a chronic psychosis. Further prospective studies are needed to determine the relationship of

Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

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van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

2015-05-01

We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

Long-term monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs at the Norwegian Troll station in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

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R. Kallenborn

2013-07-01

Full Text Available A first long-term monitoring of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs in Antarctic air has been conducted at the Norwegian research station Troll (Dronning Maud Land. As target contaminants 32 PCB congeners, α- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH, trans- and cis-chlordane, trans- and cis-nonachlor, p,p'- and o,p-DDT, DDD, DDE as well as hexachlorobenzene (HCB were selected. The monitoring program with weekly samples taken during the period 2007–2010 was coordinated with the parallel program at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring site (Zeppelin mountain, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard in terms of priority compounds, sampling schedule as well as analytical methods. The POP concentration levels found in Antarctica were considerably lower than Arctic atmospheric background concentrations. Similar to observations for Arctic samples, HCB is the predominant POP compound, with levels of around 22 pg m−3 throughout the entire monitoring period. In general, the following concentration distribution was found for the Troll samples analyzed: HCB > Sum HCH > Sum PCB > Sum DDT > Sum chlordanes. Atmospheric long-range transport was identified as a major contamination source for POPs in Antarctic environments. Several long-range transport events with elevated levels of pesticides and/or compounds with industrial sources were identified based on retroplume calculations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART.

Long-term monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) at the Norwegian Troll station in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Kallenborn, R.; Breivik, K.; Eckhardt, S.; Lunder, C. R.; Manø, S.; Schlabach, M.; Stohl, A.

2013-07-01

A first long-term monitoring of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Antarctic air has been conducted at the Norwegian research station Troll (Dronning Maud Land). As target contaminants 32 PCB congeners, α- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), trans- and cis-chlordane, trans- and cis-nonachlor, p,p'- and o,p-DDT, DDD, DDE as well as hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were selected. The monitoring program with weekly samples taken during the period 2007-2010 was coordinated with the parallel program at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring site (Zeppelin mountain, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard) in terms of priority compounds, sampling schedule as well as analytical methods. The POP concentration levels found in Antarctica were considerably lower than Arctic atmospheric background concentrations. Similar to observations for Arctic samples, HCB is the predominant POP compound, with levels of around 22 pg m-3 throughout the entire monitoring period. In general, the following concentration distribution was found for the Troll samples analyzed: HCB > Sum HCH > Sum PCB > Sum DDT > Sum chlordanes. Atmospheric long-range transport was identified as a major contamination source for POPs in Antarctic environments. Several long-range transport events with elevated levels of pesticides and/or compounds with industrial sources were identified based on retroplume calculations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART).

Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation.

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Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

2017-12-01

Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13-24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

2017-01-01

Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13–24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). - Highlights: • Regional air pollutant concentration shows an obvious spatiotemporal correlation. • Our prediction model presents superior performance. • Climate data and metadata can significantly

Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning.

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Månsson, K N T; Frick, A; Boraxbekk, C-J; Marquand, A F; Williams, S C R; Carlbring, P; Andersson, G; Furmark, T

2015-03-17

Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge. This study aimed at assessing neural predictors of long-term treatment outcome in participants with SAD 1 year after completion of Internet-delivered CBT (iCBT). Twenty-six participants diagnosed with SAD underwent iCBT including attention bias modification for a total of 13 weeks. Support vector machines (SVMs), a supervised pattern recognition method allowing predictions at the individual level, were trained to separate long-term treatment responders from nonresponders based on blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses to self-referential criticism. The Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale was the main instrument to determine treatment response at the 1-year follow-up. Results showed that the proportion of long-term responders was 52% (12/23). From multivariate BOLD responses in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) together with the amygdala, we were able to predict long-term response rate of iCBT with an accuracy of 92% (confidence interval 95% 73.2-97.6). This activation pattern was, however, not predictive of improvement in the continuous Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale-Self-report version. Follow-up psychophysiological interaction analyses revealed that lower dACC-amygdala coupling was associated with better long-term treatment response. Thus, BOLD response patterns in the fear-expressing dACC-amygdala regions were highly predictive of long-term treatment outcome of iCBT, and the initial coupling between these regions differentiated long-term responders from nonresponders. The SVM-neuroimaging approach could be of particular clinical value as it allows for accurate prediction of treatment outcome at the level of the individual.

Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

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Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

2015-12-01

Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

Long-term predictions using natural analogues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ewing, R.C.

1995-01-01

One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10 3 -10 5 years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., open-quotes natural analoguesclose quotes) provide perhaps the only means of partial open-quotes validation,close quotes as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10 3 -10 8 years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the open-quotes validationclose quotes of performance assessments

Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

Science.gov (United States)

Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

2017-04-01

Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

Long memory and changing persistence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kruse, Robinson; Sibbertsen, Philipp

We study the empirical behaviour of semi-parametric log-periodogram estimation for long memory models when the true process exhibits a change in persistence. Simulation results confirm theoretical arguments which suggest that evidence for long memory is likely to be found. A recently proposed test...... by Sibbertsen and Kruse (2009) is shown to exhibit noticeable power to discriminate between long memory and a structural change in autoregressive parameters....

Reduced Right Ventricular Function Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Re-Hospitalization after Cardiac Surgery.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leela K Lella

Full Text Available The significance of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF, independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG and valve procedures remains unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the significance of abnormal RVEF by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR, independent of LVEF in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve surgery.From 2007 to 2009, 109 consecutive patients (mean age, 66 years; 38% female were referred for pre-operative CMR. Abnormal RVEF and LVEF were considered 30 days outcomes included, cardiac re-hospitalization, worsening congestive heart failure and mortality. Mean clinical follow up was 14 months.Forty-eight patients had reduced RVEF (mean 25% and 61 patients had normal RVEF (mean 50% (p<0.001. Fifty-four patients had reduced LVEF (mean 30% and 55 patients had normal LVEF (mean 59% (p<0.001. Patients with reduced RVEF had a higher incidence of long-term cardiac re-hospitalization vs. patients with normal RVEF (31% vs.13%, p<0.05. Abnormal RVEF was a predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization (HR 3.01 [CI 1.5-7.9], p<0.03. Reduced LVEF did not influence long-term cardiac re-hospitalization.Abnormal RVEF is a stronger predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization than abnormal LVEF in patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve procedures.

Dosimetric Inhomogeneity Predicts for Long-Term Breast Pain After Breast-Conserving Therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mak, Kimberley S. [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chen, Yu-Hui; Catalano, Paul J. [Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Punglia, Rinaa S.; Wong, Julia S.; Truong, Linh [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Bellon, Jennifer R., E-mail: jbellon@LROC.harvard.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

2015-12-01

Purpose: The objective of this cross-sectional study was to characterize long-term breast pain in patients undergoing breast-conserving surgery and radiation (BCT) and to identify predictors of this pain. Methods and Materials: We identified 355 eligible patients with Tis-T2N0M0 breast cancer who underwent BCT in 2007 to 2011, without recurrent disease. A questionnaire derived from the Late Effects Normal Tissue Task Force (LENT) Subjective, Objective, Management, Analytic (SOMA) scale was mailed with 7 items detailing the severity, frequency, duration, and impact of ipsilateral breast pain over the previous 2 weeks. A logistic regression model identified predictors of long-term breast pain based on questionnaire responses and patient, disease, and treatment characteristics. Results: The questionnaire response rate was 80% (n=285). One hundred thirty-five patients (47%) reported pain in the treated breast, with 19 (14%) having pain constantly or at least daily; 15 (11%) had intense pain. The pain interfered with daily activities in 11 patients (8%). Six patients (4%) took analgesics for breast pain. Fourteen (10%) thought that the pain affected their quality of life. On univariable analysis, volume of breast tissue treated to ≥105% of the prescribed dose (odds ratio [OR] 1.001 per cc, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.000-1.002; P=.045), volume treated to ≥110% (OR 1.009 per cc, 95% CI 1.002-1.016; P=.012), hormone therapy use (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.12-3.39; P=.02), and other sites of pain (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.05-3.07; P=.03) predicted for long-term breast pain. On multivariable analysis, volume ≥110% (OR 1.01 per cc, 95% CI 1.003-1.017; P=.007), shorter time since treatment (OR 0.98 per month, 95% CI 0.96-0.998; P=.03), and hormone therapy (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.05-3.25; P=.03) were independent predictors of pain. Conclusion: Long-term breast pain was common after BCT. Although nearly half of patients had pain, most considered it tolerable. Dosimetric inhomogeneity

Improving protein disorder prediction by deep bidirectional long short-term memory recurrent neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Jack; Yang, Yuedong; Paliwal, Kuldip; Zhou, Yaoqi

2017-03-01

Capturing long-range interactions between structural but not sequence neighbors of proteins is a long-standing challenging problem in bioinformatics. Recently, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have significantly improved the accuracy of speech and image classification problems by remembering useful past information in long sequential events. Here, we have implemented deep bidirectional LSTM recurrent neural networks in the problem of protein intrinsic disorder prediction. The new method, named SPOT-Disorder, has steadily improved over a similar method using a traditional, window-based neural network (SPINE-D) in all datasets tested without separate training on short and long disordered regions. Independent tests on four other datasets including the datasets from critical assessment of structure prediction (CASP) techniques and >10 000 annotated proteins from MobiDB, confirmed SPOT-Disorder as one of the best methods in disorder prediction. Moreover, initial studies indicate that the method is more accurate in predicting functional sites in disordered regions. These results highlight the usefulness combining LSTM with deep bidirectional recurrent neural networks in capturing non-local, long-range interactions for bioinformatics applications. SPOT-disorder is available as a web server and as a standalone program at: http://sparks-lab.org/server/SPOT-disorder/index.php . j.hanson@griffith.edu.au or yuedong.yang@griffith.edu.au or yaoqi.zhou@griffith.edu.au. Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

Science.gov (United States)

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-12-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

Predicting Discharge to Institutional Long-Term Care After Stroke: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, Jennifer K; Ferguson, Eilidh E C; Barugh, Amanda J; Walesby, Katherine E; MacLullich, Alasdair M J; Shenkin, Susan D; Quinn, Terry J

2018-01-01

Stroke is a leading cause of disability worldwide, and a significant proportion of stroke survivors require long-term institutional care. Understanding who cannot be discharged home is important for health and social care planning. Our aim was to establish predictive factors for discharge to institutional care after hospitalization for stroke. We registered and conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42015023497) of observational studies. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL Plus to February 2017. Quantitative synthesis was performed where data allowed. Acute and rehabilitation hospitals. Adults hospitalized for stroke who were newly admitted directly to long-term institutional care at the time of hospital discharge. Factors associated with new institutionalization. From 10,420 records, we included 18 studies (n = 32,139 participants). The studies were heterogeneous and conducted in Europe, North America, and East Asia. Eight studies were at high risk of selection bias. The proportion of those surviving to discharge who were newly discharged to long-term care varied from 7% to 39% (median 17%, interquartile range 12%), and the model of care received in the long-term care setting was not defined. Older age and greater stroke severity had a consistently positive association with the need for long-term care admission. Individuals who had a severe stroke were 26 times as likely to be admitted to long-term care than those who had a minor stroke. Individuals aged 65 and older had a risk of stroke that was three times as great as that of younger individuals. Potentially modifiable factors were rarely examined. Age and stroke severity are important predictors of institutional long-term care admission directly from the hospital after an acute stroke. Potentially modifiable factors should be the target of future research. Stroke outcome studies should report discharge destination, defining the model of care provided in the long-term care setting. �

MAGIC biomarkers predict long term outcomes for steroid-resistant acute GVHD.

Science.gov (United States)

Major-Monfried, Hannah; Renteria, Anne S; Pawarode, Attaphol; Reddy, Pavan; Ayuk, Francis; Holler, Ernst; Efebera, Yvonne A; Hogan, William J; Wölfl, Matthias; Qayed, Muna; Hexner, Elizabeth O; Wudhikarn, Kitsada; Ordemann, Rainer; Young, Rachel; Shah, Jay; Hartwell, Matthew J; Chaudhry, Mohammed; Aziz, Mina; Etra, Aaron; Yanik, Gregory A; Kröger, Nicolaus; Weber, Daniela; Chen, Yi-Bin; Nakamura, Ryotaro; Rösler, Wolf; Kitko, Carrie L; Harris, Andrew C; Pulsipher, Michael; Reshef, Ran; Kowalyk, Steven; Morales, George; Torres, Ivan; Özbek, Umut; Ferrara, James L M; Levine, John E

2018-03-15

Acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) is treated with systemic corticosteroid immunosuppression. Clinical response after one week of therapy often guides further treatment decisions, but long term outcomes vary widely between centers and more accurate predictive tests are urgently needed. We analyzed clinical data and blood samples taken after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD from 507 patients from 17 centers of the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC), dividing them into test (n=236) and two validation cohorts separated in time (n = 142 and 129, respectively). Initial response to systemic steroids correlated with response at four weeks, one-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS). A previously validated algorithm of two MAGIC biomarkers (ST2 and REG3α) consistently separated steroid resistant patients into two groups with dramatically different NRM and OS (p<0.001 for all three cohorts). High biomarker probability, resistance to steroids and GVHD severity (Minnesota risk) were all significant predictors of NRM in multivariate analysis. A direct comparison of receiver operating curves showed the area under the curve for biomarker probability (0.82) was significantly greater than that for steroid response (0.68, p=0.004) and for Minnesota risk (0.72, p=0.005). In conclusion, MAGIC biomarker probabilities generated after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD predict long term outcomes in steroid resistant GVHD better than clinical criteria and should prove useful in developing better treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Hematology.

Long-term outcome following splenectomy for chronic and persistent immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in adults and children : Splenectomy in ITP.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Rayaz; Devasia, Anup J; Viswabandya, Auro; Lakshmi, Kavitha M; Abraham, Aby; Karl, Sampath; Mathai, John; Jacob, Paul M; Abraham, Deepak; Srivastava, Alok; Mathews, Vikram; George, Biju

2016-09-01

The purpose of this research is to study the outcomes of splenectomy for chronic and persistent immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). This study is a retrospective analysis of 254 patients with chronic or persistent ITP who underwent splenectomy at CMC, Vellore, India between 1995 and 2009. Responses were assessed based on standard criteria. One hundred and sixty seven adults and 87 children with a median age of 29 years (range 2-64) with persistent (n = 103) or chronic ITP (n = 151) was studied. Response was seen in 229 (90.2 %) including CR in 74.4 % at a median time of 1 day (range 1-54). Infections following splenectomy were reported in 16 %. Deaths related to post splenectomy sepsis occurred in 1.57 % and major bleeding in 0.78 %. At median follow-up of 54.3 months (range 1-290), 178 (70.1 %) remain in remission. The 5-year and 10-year overall survival (OS) is 97.4 ± 1.2 % and 94.9 ± 2.1 %, respectively, while the 5-year and 10-year event-free survival (EFS) is 76.5 + 2.9 % and 71.0 + 3.9 %, respectively. Splenectomy is associated with long-term remission rates of >70 % in chronic or persistent ITP.

Scientific basis for long-term prediction of waste-form performance under repository conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendel, J.E.

1982-10-01

This paper presents an overview of the fundamental principles involved in predicting long-term performance of waste forms by the as-low-as-reasonably-achievable approach. Repository conditions which make up the waste-form environment, the aging of the waste form, the important radionuclides in the waste form, the chemistry of repository fluids, and multicomponent interactions testing were considered in order to describe these principles. The need for confidence limits on the prediction of waste-form performance and ways of achieving a definition of the confidence limits are discussed

Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

2018-01-01

LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amnon eYacoby

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK. We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or one day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information one day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories.

Late Protein Synthesis-Dependent Phases in CTA Long-Term Memory: BDNF Requirement

OpenAIRE

Martínez-Moreno, Araceli; Rodríguez-Durán, Luis F.; Escobar, Martha L.

2011-01-01

It has been proposed that long-term memory persistence requires a late protein synthesis-dependent phase, even many hours after memory acquisition. Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is an essential protein synthesis product that has emerged as one of the most potent molecular mediators for long-term synaptic plasticity. Studies in the rat hippocampus have been shown that BDNF is capable to rescue the late-phase of long-term potentiation as well as the hippocampus-related long-term memo...

Prediction method of long-term reliability in improving residual stresses by means of surface finishing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sera, Takehiko; Hirano, Shinro; Chigusa, Naoki; Okano, Shigetaka; Saida, Kazuyoshi; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

2012-01-01

Surface finishing methods, such as Water Jet Peening (WJP), have been applied to welds in some major components of nuclear power plants as a counter measure to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). In addition, the methods of surface finishing (buffing treatment) is being standardized, and thus the buffing treatment has been also recognized as the well-established method of improving stress. On the other hand, the long-term stability of peening techniques has been confirmed by accelerated test. However, the effectiveness of stress improvement by surface treatment is limited to thin layers and the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal beneath the surface is not strictly taken into account for long-term stability. This paper, therefore, describes the accelerated tests, which confirmed that the long-term stability of the layer subjected to buffing treatment was equal to that subjected to WJP. The long-term reliability of very thin stress improved layer was also confirmed through a trial evaluation by thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis, even if the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal was excessively taken into account. Considering the above findings, an approach is proposed for constructing the prediction method of the long-term reliability of stress improvement by surface finishing. (author)

The value of short-term pain relief in predicting the long-term outcome of 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injections.

Science.gov (United States)

Joswig, Holger; Neff, Armin; Ruppert, Christina; Hildebrandt, Gerhard; Stienen, Martin Nikolaus

2018-05-01

The predictive value of short-term arm pain relief after 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injection (ESI) for the 1-month treatment response has been previously demonstrated. It remained to be answered whether the long-term response could be estimated by the early post-interventional pain course as well. Prospective observational study, following a cohort of n = 45 patients for a period of 24 months after 'indirect' ESI for radiculopathy secondary to a single-level cervical disk herniation (CDH). Arm and neck pain on the visual analog scale (VAS), health-related quality of life with the Short Form-12 (SF-12), and functional outcome with the Neck Pain and Disability (NPAD) Scale were assessed. Any additional invasive treatment after a single injection (second injection or surgery) defined treatment outcome as 'non-response'. At 24 months, n = 30 (66.7%) patients were responders and n = 15 (33.3%) were non-responders. Non-responders exited the follow-up at 1 month (n = 10), at 3 months (n = 4), and at 6 months (n = 1). No patients were injected again or operated on between the 6- and 24-month follow-up. Patients with favorable treatment response at 24 months had significantly lower VAS arm pain (p  50% short term pain reduction was not a reliable predictor of the 24-month responder status. SF-12 and NPAD scores were better among treatment responders in the long term. Patients who require a second injection or surgery after 'indirect' cervical ESI for a symptomatic CDH do so within the first 6 months. Short-term pain relief cannot reliably predict the long-term outcome.

Do improvements after inpatient dialectial behavioral therapy persist in the long term? A naturalistic follow-up in patients with borderline personality disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleindienst, Nikolaus; Limberger, Matthias F; Schmahl, Christian; Steil, Regina; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich W; Bohus, Martin

2008-11-01

Three months of inpatient dialectical behavior therapy proved to be highly effective in patients with borderline personality disorder. This study investigates whether the effects of DBT persist after the patients returned to their usual lives. Thirty-one patients with a diagnosis of borderline personality disorder (DSM-IV) were prospectively followed-up for an observation period of 21 months after discharge from the DBT program, under naturalistic conditions.Improvements as observed after discharge persisted over the full follow-up period. This is reflected in a steady rate of remitted patients and in a broad range of psychopathology showing statistically and clinically significant effect-sizes ranging from 0.70 to 1.71. Analyses of courses over time revealed a high intraindividual concordance, indicating that short term treatment response predicted remission after 2 years follow-up. The effects of inpatient dialectical behavior therapy seem to persist after patients returned to their usual lives.

Short-term and long-term deflection of reinforced hollow core ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents a study on different methods of analysis that are currently used by design codes to predict the short-term and long-term deflection of reinforced concrete slab systems and compares the predicted deflections with measured deflections. The experimental work to measure deflections involved the testing of ...

Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joseph, Philip [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); McMaster University, Population Health Research Institute, Department of Medicine, and Department of Radiology, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); Mani, Venkatesh [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Kallend, David [The Medicines Company, Parsippany, NJ (United States); Rudd, James H.F. [University of Cambridge, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Fayad, Zahi A. [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Hess CSM Building Floor TMII, Rm S1-104, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States)

2017-01-15

It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joseph, Philip; Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed; Mani, Venkatesh; Kallend, David; Rudd, James H.F.; Fayad, Zahi A.

2017-01-01

It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

Persistent angina

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jespersen, L.; Abildstrom, S. Z.; Hvelplund, Anders

2013-01-01

To evaluate persistent angina in stable angina pectoris with no obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) compared to obstructive CAD and its relation to long-term anxiety, depression, quality of life (QOL), and physical functioning. We invited 357 patients (men = 191; women = 166; response rate 83......-obstructive CAD or normal coronary arteries than in patients with obstructive CAD. Persistent angina symptoms were associated with long-term anxiety, depression, impaired physical functioning, and QOL irrespective of the degree of CAD. Contrary to common perception, excluding obstructive CAD in stable angina does...... %) with no prior cardiovascular disease who had a first-time coronary angiography (CAG) in 2008-2009 due to suspected stable angina to participate in a questionnaire survey in 2011 with the Seattle Angina Questionnaire and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale as key elements. Long-term persistent angina (i...

Long-term persistence of functional thymic epithelial progenitor cells in vivo under conditions of low FOXN1 expression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jin, Xin; Nowell, Craig S; Ulyanchenko, Svetlana

2014-01-01

does not require FOXN1. Here, we have used a revertible severely hypomorphic allele of Foxn1, Foxn1R, to test the stability of the common TEPC in vivo. By reactivating Foxn1 expression postnatally in Foxn1R/- mice we demonstrate that functional TEPCs can persist in the thymic rudiment until at least 6...... months of age, and retain the potential to give rise to both cortical and medullary thymic epithelial cells (cTECs and mTECs). These data demonstrate that the TEPC-state is remarkably stable in vivo under conditions of low Foxn1 expression, suggesting that manipulation of FOXN1 activity may prove...... a valuable method for long term maintenance of TEPC in vitro....

Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

2018-05-01

The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Persistency of Abnormal Heart Rate Variability following Long NICU Stay and Surgery at Birth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mélanie Morin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Preterm birth is associated with painful procedures during the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU stay. Full-term newborns can also experience pain, following surgery. These procedures can have long-lasting consequences. It has been shown that children born preterm show pain responses and cardiac alterations. This study aimed to explore the heart rate reactivity to pain in 107 subjects born either preterm or full-term who were between 7 and 25 years old at testing. We also evaluated the effect of pain experienced at birth, as represented by a longer NICU stay, time under ventilation, and surgery at birth. Participants were asked to immerse their right forearm in 10°C water for 2 minutes. Electrocardiograms were recorded at baseline and during the immersion procedure. Full-term subjects showed a stable increase in heart rate throughout the procedure, whereas preterm ones showed a strong increase at the beginning, which decreased over time. Also, preterm and full-term subjects who experienced pain at birth showed higher resting heart rate, stronger sympathetic activity, and lower cardiac vagal activity. Our study demonstrated a long-term impact of a long NICU stay and surgery at birth on cardiac autonomic activity. This could lead to impaired reactions to pain or stress in later life.

Long - Memory Persistence in African Stock Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emmanuel Numapau Gyamfi

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Emerging stock markets are said to become efficient with time. This study seeks to investigate this assertion by analyzing long - memory persistence in 8 African stock markets covering the period from 28 August 2000 to 28 August 2015. The Hurst exponent is used as our efficiency measure which is evaluated by the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA. Our findings show strong evidence of long - memory persistence in the markets studied therefore violating the weak - form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH.

Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine

2009-01-01

In a regulatory context, numerical models are increasingly employed to quantify leaching of pesticides and their metabolites. Although the ability of these models to accurately simulate leaching of pesticides has been evaluated, little is known about their ability to accurately simulate long...... alternative kinetics (a two-site approach), we captured the observed leaching scenario, thus underlining the necessity of accounting for the long-term sorption and dissipation characteristics when using models to predict the risk of groundwater contamination.......-term leaching of metabolites. A Danish study on the dissipation and sorption of metribuzin, involving both monitoring and batch experiments, concluded that desorption and degradation of metribuzin and leaching of its primary metabolite diketometribuzin continued for 5-6 years after application, posing a risk...

Enabling Persistent Autonomy for Underwater Gliders with Ocean Model Predictions and Terrain Based Navigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew eStuntz

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Effective study of ocean processes requires sampling over the duration of long (weeks to months oscillation patterns. Such sampling requires persistent, autonomous underwater vehicles, that have a similarly long deployment duration. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the ocean environment, coupled with limited communication capabilities, make navigation and localization difficult, especially in coastal regions where the majority of interesting phenomena occur. In this paper, we consider the combination of two methods for reducing navigation and localization error; a predictive approach based on ocean model predictions and a prior information approach derived from terrain-based navigation. The motivation for this work is not only for real-time state estimation, but also for accurately reconstructing the actual path that the vehicle traversed to contextualize the gathered data, with respect to the science question at hand. We present an application for the practical use of priors and predictions for large-scale ocean sampling. This combined approach builds upon previous works by the authors, and accurately localizes the traversed path of an underwater glider over long-duration, ocean deployments. The proposed method takes advantage of the reliable, short-term predictions of an ocean model, and the utility of priors used in terrain-based navigation over areas of significant bathymetric relief to bound uncertainty error in dead-reckoning navigation. This method improves upon our previously published works by 1 demonstrating the utility of our terrain-based navigation method with multiple field trials, and 2 presenting a hybrid algorithm that combines both approaches to bound navigational error and uncertainty for long-term deployments of underwater vehicles. We demonstrate the approach by examining data from actual field trials with autonomous underwater gliders, and demonstrate an ability to estimate geographical location of an underwater glider to 2

Haloperidol for long-term aggression in psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Khushu, Abha; Powney, Melanie J

2016-11-27

Psychotic disorders can lead some people to become agitated. Characterised by restlessness, excitability and irritability, this can result in verbal and physically aggressive behaviour - and both can be prolonged. Aggression within the psychiatric setting imposes a significant challenge to clinicians and risk to service users; it is a frequent cause for admission to inpatient facilities. If people continue to be aggressive it can lengthen hospitalisation. Haloperidol is used to treat people with long-term aggression. To examine whether haloperidol alone, administered orally, intramuscularly or intravenously, is an effective treatment for long-term/persistent aggression in psychosis. We searched the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group Trials Register (July 2011 and April 2015). We included randomised controlled trials (RCT) or double blind trials (implying randomisation) with useable data comparing haloperidol with another drug or placebo for people with psychosis and long-term/persistent aggression. One review author (AK) extracted data. For dichotomous data, one review author (AK) calculated risk ratios (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) on an intention-to-treat basis based on a fixed-effect model. One review author (AK) assessed risk of bias for included studies and created a 'Summary of findings' table using GRADE. We have no good-quality evidence of the absolute effectiveness of haloperidol for people with long-term aggression. One study randomising 110 chronically aggressive people to three different antipsychotic drugs met the inclusion criteria. When haloperidol was compared with olanzapine or clozapine, skewed data (n=83) at high risk of bias suggested some advantage in terms of scale scores of unclear clinical meaning for olanzapine/clozapine for 'total aggression'. Data were available for only one other outcome, leaving the study early. When compared with other antipsychotic drugs, people allocated to haloperidol were no more likely to leave the study

The existence and persistence of long work hours

OpenAIRE

Drago, Robert William; Black, David; Wooden, Mark

2005-01-01

Previous research hypothesizes that long working hours are related to consumerism, the ideal worker norm, high levels of human capital, and a high cost-of-job-loss. The authors test these hypotheses using panel data on working hours for an Australian sample of full-time employed workers. Analyses include a static cross-sectional model and a persistence model for long hours over time. The results suggest that long hours (50 or more hours in a usual week) are often persistent, and provide stron...

The Sources of Life Chances: Does Education, Class Category, Occupation, or Short-Term Earnings Predict 20-Year Long-Term Earnings?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ChangHwan Kim

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In sociological studies of economic stratification and intergenerational mobility, occupation has long been presumed to reflect lifetime earnings better than do short-term earnings. However, few studies have actually tested this critical assumption. In this study, we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of 20-year accumulated earnings using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal earnings records based on administrative tax information from 1990 to 2009. Fit statistics of regression models are estimated to assess the predictive power of various proxy variables, including occupation, education, and short-term earnings, on cumulative earnings over the 20-year time period. Contrary to the popular assumption in sociology, our results find that cross-sectional earnings have greater predictive power on long-term earnings than occupation-based class classifications, including three-digit detailed occupations for both men and women. The model based on educational attainment, including field of study, has slightly better fit than models based on one-digit occupation or the Erikson, Goldthorpe, and Portocarero class scheme. We discuss the theoretical implications of these findings for the sociology of stratification and intergenerational mobility.

Long-term persistence of quality improvements for an intensive care unit communication initiative using the VALUE strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wysham, Nicholas G; Mularski, Richard A; Schmidt, David M; Nord, Shirley C; Louis, Deborah L; Shuster, Elizabeth; Curtis, J Randall; Mosen, David M

2014-06-01

Communication in the intensive care unit (ICU) is an important component of quality ICU care. In this report, we evaluate the long-term effects of a quality improvement (QI) initiative, based on the VALUE communication strategy, designed to improve communication with family members of critically ill patients. We implemented a multifaceted intervention to improve communication in the ICU and measured processes of care. Quality improvement components included posted VALUE placards, templated progress note inclusive of communication documentation, and a daily rounding checklist prompt. We evaluated care for all patients cared for by the intensivists during three separate 3 week periods, pre, post, and 3 years following the initial intervention. Care delivery was assessed in 38 patients and their families in the pre-intervention sample, 27 in the post-intervention period, and 41 in follow-up. Process measures of communication showed improvement across the evaluation periods, for example, daily updates increased from pre 62% to post 76% to current 84% of opportunities. Our evaluation of this quality improvement project suggests persistence and continued improvements in the delivery of measured aspects of ICU family communication. Maintenance with point-of-care-tools may account for some of the persistence and continued improvements. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long term follow up in hemodialysis patients with parathyroidectomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez, A.; Petraglia, A.; Caorsi, H.; Mazzuchi, N.; Olaizola, I.; Acuna, G.; Fajardo, L.; Ambrosoni, P.; Morelli, R.

1998-01-01

A retrospective study was performed in 41 patients, in chronic hemodialysis with severe hyperparathyroidism (HPT), who underwent surgery during time period from 1985 to 1997. 22 females, 19 males, aged 50 and 14 years, with PTHI 1345 and 604 pg/ml were followed up 32 and 22 months. Three surgical methods we evaluated: group I) total para thyroidectomy(PTX) with Implants(n=24); group II) subtotal PTX(n=14) and group III) total PTX(n=3). It considered recurrence of HPT when PTH levels were higher than upper range of normal, after 6 months post surgery. persistence was defined when there was no standardization of PTH levels. In group I, 9 patients had normal parathyroid function, 7 had persistent hypoparathyroidism and had hyperparathyroidism (7 recurrences). Group II patients had parathyroid over function in 5 cases (4 persistence s), 5 were normal and 4 hypoparathyroidism. All patients of the third group had hypoparathyroidism. Long term normalization of parathyroid gland activity was achieved in one third of troduccion patients (34,1%) whereas 34,1% permanent hypoparathyroidism and 31,8% hyperparathyroidism. It found no differences in recurrence and histological subtype of parathyroid gland in the different groups. In conclusion, similar long term clinical results were obtained with the different groups. The surgical ideal treatment is controversial. We think that in the long run, the evolution of parathyroid status is mostly influenced by the persistence of uremic state rather than the type of surgery performed [es

Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haimin Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam, for long short-term memory (LSTM to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM.

Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Haimin; Pan, Zhisong; Tao, Qing

2017-01-01

Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam), for long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM.

The persistence of personal and social themes in context: Long- and short-term studies of students' scientific ideas

Science.gov (United States)

Helldén, Gustav F.; Solomon, Joan

2004-11-01

In this paper we will examine the persistence of misconceptions. We used data from a longitudinal study of personal ideas in 24 students' thinking about ecological processes. The results show students often speaking about personal experiences dating from an early age, to which they had also referred in similar interviews conducted years before. These data are compared with results from a different study of middle school physics students' thinking about energy and steam engines. After the new learning had been successfull completed and assessed, old ideas returned. These findings are used to set up a theoretical basis for understanding the longitudinal results. Findings from memory studies are shown to explicate the long-term effects of the passage of time and prompts for the recall of scientific concepts.

Predictive factors for the development of persistent pain after breast cancer surgery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Kenneth Geving; Duriaud, Helle Molter; Jensen, Helle Elisabeth

2015-01-01

Previous studies have reported that 15% to 25% of patients treated for breast cancer experience long-term moderate-to-severe pain in the area of surgery, potentially lasting for several years. Few prospective studies have included all potential risk factors for the development of persistent pain...... after breast cancer surgery (PPBCS). The aim of this prospective cohort study was to comprehensively identify factors predicting PPBCS. Patients scheduled for primary breast cancer surgery were recruited. Assessments were conducted preoperatively, the first 3 days postoperatively, and 1 week, 6 months...... were included, and 475 (88%) were available for analysis at 1 year. At 1-year follow-up, the prevalence of moderate-to-severe pain at rest was 14% and during movement was 7%. Factors associated with pain at rest were age breast conserving surgery (OR: 2.0, P...

Global synthesis of long-term cloud condensation nuclei observations

Science.gov (United States)

Schmale, Julia; Henning, Silvia; Stratmann, Frank; Henzing, Bas; Schlag, Patrick; Aalto, Pasi; Keskinen, Helmi; Sellegri, Karine; Ovadnevaite, Jurgita; Krüger, Mira; Jefferson, Anne; Whitehead, James; Carslaw, Ken; Yum, Seong Soo; Kristensson, Adam; Baltensperger, Urs; Gysel, Martin

2016-04-01

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are aerosol particles with the ability to activate into droplets at a given super saturation and therefore influence the microphysical and optical properties of clouds. To predict cloud radiative properties understanding the spatial and temporal variability of CCN concentrations in different environments is important. However, currently, the effects of atmospheric particles on changes in cloud radiative forcing are still the largest contribution of uncertainty in climate forcing prediction (IPCC, 2013). Numerous intensive field campaigns have already explored detailed characteristics of CCN in many locations around the world. However, these rather short-term observations can generally not address seasonal or inter-annual variations and a comparison between campaign sites is difficult due to the higher influence of specific environmental circumstances on short-term measurements results. Here, we present results of more long-term CCN and aerosol number concentrations as well as size distribution data covering at least one full year between 2006 and 2014. The 12 locations include ACTRIS stations (http://www.actris.net/) in Europe, and further sites in North America, Brazil and Korea. The sites are located in different environments allowing for temporal and spatial characterization of CCN variability in different atmospheric regimes. Those include marine, remote-continental, boreal forest, rain forest, Arctic and monsoon-influenced environments, as well as boundary layer and free tropospheric conditions. The aerosol populations and their activation behavior show significant differences across the stations. While peak concentrations of CCN are observed in summer at the high altitude sites, in the Arctic the highest concentrations occur during the Haze period in spring. The rural-marine and rural-continental sites exhibit similar CCN concentration characteristics with a relatively flat annual cycle. At some stations, e.g. in the boreal

Functional interpretation of metabolomics data as a new method for predicting long-term side effects: treatment of atopic dermatitis in infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seul Ji; Woo, Sung-il; Ahn, Soo Hyun; Lim, Dong Kyu; Hong, Ji Yeon; Park, Jeong Hill; Lim, Johan; Kim, Mi-kyeong; Kwon, Sung Won

2014-12-10

Topical steroids are used for the treatment of primary atopic dermatitis (AD); however, their associated risk of serious complications is great due to the presence of vulnerable lesions in young children with AD. Topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCIs) are steroid-free, anti-inflammatory agents used for topical AD therapy. However, their use is prohibited in infants side effects. The 1% pimecrolimus cream displayed similar efficacy and exceptional safety compared with the 0.05% desonide cream. Metabolomics-based long-term toxicity tests effectively predicted long-term side effects using short-term clinical models. This applicable method for the functional interpretation of metabolomics data sets the foundation for future studies involving the prediction of the toxicity and systemic reactions caused by long-term medication administration.

PRIMARY RESULTS OF LONG-TERM DYNAMIC MONITORING OF CHILDREN WITH BRONCHIAL ASTHMA OF UNCONTROLLED SEVERE PERSISTENT COURSE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. S. Namazova-Baranova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Patients registers help obtain the latest information about the clinical course of a disease, safety and effectiveness of the medical technology. Objective: Our aim was to analyze the efficiency and safety of omalizumab with children suffering from uncontrolled severe persistent bronchial asthma (BA according to the data of the developed register. Methods.  A register of patients with severe asthma of uncontrolled course receiving omalizumab in addition to basic therapy has been developed. Results. Results of treatment of 101 children aged 6–17 have been analyzed. The duration of therapy with omalizumab lasted from 1 to 85 months, with a median of 16 (10; 44 months. The drug was used in doses of 75 to 600 mg, with a median of 300 (225; 375 mg. The therapy with omalizumab allowed achieving a better control of the disease (AST test prior to start of therapy — 14 (11; 17 points, in 1 year — 20 (13; 25; p < 0,001; reduction of the volume of daily base therapy (prior to start of therapy, average dose of inhaled corticosteroids in terms of fluticasone was 629 ± 304 mg (n = 15, in 4 years — 524 ± 342 mg; p = 0.065; reduction of the number of aggravations and the need to use short-effectiv   2-agonists.  No adverse systemic effects of the introduction of genetically engineered biological drugs have been found. Conclusion. Register of patients with severe persistent asthma can be used as a tool for long-term  monitoring and integrated assessment of the efficiency and safety of therapy.

Predicting the long term stabilisation of uranium mill tailings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trojacek, J.

2004-01-01

The long-term stabilization and remediation of uranium mill tailings ponds is an important task for DIAMO. After uranium mining was stopped, DIAMO has to remediate more then 400 ha of tailings ponds at three locations. It is currently planned to cover the surface with low permeability materials with a slope of approx. 3% to protect the interior of the disposal facility from infiltrating rainwater. This entails to cover the free surface of these ponds with several hundred thousand tons of inert material. As a result of this load, the porewater from the tailings is expelled and the body of the impounded materials consolidates. Consolidation of tailings proceeds irregularly, depending on the internal structure of the tailings layers and on the progress of loading. The surface needs to be recontoured for a long time into the future. The topic of the DIAMO project is to predict and optimise the final surface contour of the tailings pond body, and to determine the time schedule and locations for recontouring work. The K1 tailings pond in Dolni Rozinka (Southern Moravia) is a typical example for such task. The average thickness of the tailings layer is around 25 m and the average porewater contents varies from 25 up to 40%. In the years 1998-99 a PHARE pilot project was undertaken that aimed to predict the quantity and quality of drainage and infiltration waters as a function of time. A new investigation programme (field, laboratory and modelling) has been implemented. The range of material properties and distribution of types of tailings was established. Orientation calculations of the tailings consolidation were made for fine slime zone. The results have shown that significant subsidence of the surface is to be expected after loading with inert material for the construction of an interim cover. (author)

Predictive value of the Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and its components for long-term survival

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aukland, Preben; Lando, Martin; Vilholm, Ole

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: The "Status Epilepticus Severity Score" (STESS) is the most important clinical score to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with status epilepticus (SE), but its prognostic relevance for long-term survival is unknown. This study therefore examined if STESS and its components...

Optimal long-term contracting with learning

OpenAIRE

He, Zhiguo; Wei, Bin; Yu, Jianfeng; Gao, Feng

2016-01-01

We introduce uncertainty into Holmstrom and Milgrom (1987) to study optimal long-term contracting with learning. In a dynamic relationship, the agent's shirking not only reduces current performance but also increases the agent's information rent due to the persistent belief manipulation effect. We characterize the optimal contract using the dynamic programming technique in which information rent is the unique state variable. In the optimal contract, the optimal effort is front-loaded and decr...

Persistency of Prediction Accuracy and Genetic Gain in Synthetic Populations Under Recurrent Genomic Selection

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Dominik Müller

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Recurrent selection (RS has been used in plant breeding to successively improve synthetic and other multiparental populations. Synthetics are generated from a limited number of parents ( Np , but little is known about how Np affects genomic selection (GS in RS, especially the persistency of prediction accuracy (rg , g ^ and genetic gain. Synthetics were simulated by intermating Np= 2–32 parent lines from an ancestral population with short- or long-range linkage disequilibrium (LDA and subjected to multiple cycles of GS. We determined rg , g ^ and genetic gain across 30 cycles for different training set (TS sizes, marker densities, and generations of recombination before model training. Contributions to rg , g ^ and genetic gain from pedigree relationships, as well as from cosegregation and LDA between QTL and markers, were analyzed via four scenarios differing in (i the relatedness between TS and selection candidates and (ii whether selection was based on markers or pedigree records. Persistency of rg , g ^ was high for small Np , where predominantly cosegregation contributed to rg , g ^ , but also for large Np , where LDA replaced cosegregation as the dominant information source. Together with increasing genetic variance, this compensation resulted in relatively constant long- and short-term genetic gain for increasing Np > 4, given long-range LDA in the ancestral population. Although our scenarios suggest that information from pedigree relationships contributed to rg , g ^ for only very few generations in GS, we expect a longer contribution than in pedigree BLUP, because capturing Mendelian sampling by markers reduces selective pressure on pedigree relationships. Larger TS size (NTS and higher marker density improved persistency of rg , g ^ and hence genetic gain, but additional recombinations could not increase genetic gain.

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

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Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

2015-01-01

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, J; Nawata, K

2018-05-01

Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.

Long-term persistence and function of hematopoietic stem cell-derived chimeric antigen receptor T cells in a nonhuman primate model of HIV/AIDS.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anjie Zhen

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Chimeric Antigen Receptor (CAR T-cells have emerged as a powerful immunotherapy for various forms of cancer and show promise in treating HIV-1 infection. However, significant limitations are persistence and whether peripheral T cell-based products can respond to malignant or infected cells that may reappear months or years after treatment remains unclear. Hematopoietic Stem/Progenitor Cells (HSPCs are capable of long-term engraftment and have the potential to overcome these limitations. Here, we report the use of a protective CD4 chimeric antigen receptor (C46CD4CAR to redirect HSPC-derived T-cells against simian/human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV infection in pigtail macaques. CAR-containing cells persisted for more than 2 years without any measurable toxicity and were capable of multilineage engraftment. Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART treatment followed by cART withdrawal resulted in lower viral rebound in CAR animals relative to controls, and demonstrated an immune memory-like response. We found CAR-expressing cells in multiple lymphoid tissues, decreased tissue-associated SHIV RNA levels, and substantially higher CD4/CD8 ratios in the gut as compared to controls. These results show that HSPC-derived CAR T-cells are capable of long-term engraftment and immune surveillance. This study demonstrates for the first time the safety and feasibility of HSPC-based CAR therapy in a large animal preclinical model.

[Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Haixia; Tang, Yangjiang; Wang, Lan; Shi, Chaoli; Feng, Yulin; Yi, Qun

2016-01-26

To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), Prisk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower

Anticipatory eye movements and long-term memory in early infancy.

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Wong-Kee-You, Audrey M B; Adler, Scott A

2016-11-01

Advances in our understanding of long-term memory in early infancy have been made possible by studies that have used the Rovee-Collier's mobile conjugate reinforcement paradigm and its variants. One function that has been attributed to long-term memory is the formation of expectations (Rovee-Collier & Hayne, 1987); consequently, a long-term memory representation should be established during expectation formation. To examine this prediction and potentially open the door on a new paradigm for exploring infants' long-term memory, using the Visual Expectation Paradigm (Haith, Hazan, & Goodman, 1988), 3-month-old infants were trained to form an expectation for predictable color and spatial information of picture events and emit anticipatory eye movements to those events. One day later, infants' anticipatory eye movements decreased in number relative to the end of training when the predictable colors were changed but not when the spatial location of the predictable color events was changed. These findings confirm that information encoded during expectation formation are stored in long-term memory, as hypothesized by Rovee-Collier and colleagues. Further, this research suggests that eye movements are potentially viable measures of long-term memory in infancy, providing confirmatory evidence for early mnemonic processes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Jie; Chen, Kuilin; Mori, Junichi; Rashid, Mudassir M.

2013-01-01

Optimizing wind power generation and controlling the operation of wind turbines to efficiently harness the renewable wind energy is a challenging task due to the intermittency and unpredictable nature of wind speed, which has significant influence on wind power production. A new approach for long-term wind speed forecasting is developed in this study by integrating GMCM (Gaussian mixture copula model) and localized GPR (Gaussian process regression). The time series of wind speed is first classified into multiple non-Gaussian components through the Gaussian mixture copula model and then Bayesian inference strategy is employed to incorporate the various non-Gaussian components using the posterior probabilities. Further, the localized Gaussian process regression models corresponding to different non-Gaussian components are built to characterize the stochastic uncertainty and non-stationary seasonality of the wind speed data. The various localized GPR models are integrated through the posterior probabilities as the weightings so that a global predictive model is developed for the prediction of wind speed. The proposed GMCM–GPR approach is demonstrated using wind speed data from various wind farm locations and compared against the GMCM-based ARIMA (auto-regressive integrated moving average) and SVR (support vector regression) methods. In contrast to GMCM–ARIMA and GMCM–SVR methods, the proposed GMCM–GPR model is able to well characterize the multi-seasonality and uncertainty of wind speed series for accurate long-term prediction. - Highlights: • A novel predictive modeling method is proposed for long-term wind speed forecasting. • Gaussian mixture copula model is estimated to characterize the multi-seasonality. • Localized Gaussian process regression models can deal with the random uncertainty. • Multiple GPR models are integrated through Bayesian inference strategy. • The proposed approach shows higher prediction accuracy and reliability

Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

2013-01-01

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

Endorsement of Social and Personal Values Predicts the Desirability of Men and Women as Long-Term Partners.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, Guilherme S; Barbaro, Nicole; Sela, Yael; Jeffery, Austin J; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K; Zeigler-Hill, Virgil

2017-01-01

A prospective romantic partner's desirability as a long-term partner may be affected by the values that he or she endorses. However, few studies have examined the effects of "values" on a person's desirability as a long-term partner. We hypothesized that individuals who endorse social values (vs. personal values) will be perceived as more desirable long-term partners (Hypothesis 1) and that the endorsement of social values will be especially desirable in a male (vs. female) long-term partner (Hypothesis 2). The current study employed a 2 (sex of prospective partner: male vs. female) × 2 (values of prospective partner: personal vs. social) × 2 (physical attractiveness of prospective partner: unattractive vs. highly attractive) mixed-model design. Participants were 339 undergraduates (174 men, 165 women), with ages varying between 18 and 33 years ( M = 19.9, SD = 3.6), and mostly in a romantic relationship (53.7%). Participants reported interest in a long-term relationship with prospective partners depicted in four scenarios (within subjects), each varying along the dimensions of values (personal vs. social) and physical attractiveness (unattractive vs. highly attractive). Individuals endorsing personal values (vs. social values) and men (vs. women) endorsing personal values were rated as less desirable as long-term partners. The current research adds to the partner preferences literature by demonstrating that an individual's ascribed values influence others' perceptions of desirability as a long-term partner and that these effects are consistently sex differentiated, as predicted by an evolutionary perspective on romantic partner preferences.

Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

2016-04-01

Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

Science.gov (United States)

Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

1983-01-01

A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with applications to the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina; Frydman, Roman

long-term interest rates and two short-term interest rates over the 1975-1999 period. One important aim of the paper is to demonstrate that by structuring the data with the help of the I(2) model one can achieve a better understanding of the empirical regularities underlying the persistent swings...... components in the I(2) model is discussed at some length. Model specification and tests are illustrated with an empirical analysis of long and persistent swings in the foreign exchange market between Germany and USA. The data analyzed consist of nominal exchange rates, relative prices, US inflation rate, two...... in nominal exchange rates, typical in periods of floating exchange rates....

Postoperative CPAP use impacts long-term weight loss following bariatric surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Collen, Jacob; Lettieri, Christopher J; Eliasson, Arn

2015-03-15

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is common among bariatric surgery candidates. After surgical weight loss, OSA frequently persists and untreated OSA can lead to weight gain. Long-term continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) adherence is unclear and poor adherence may worsen weight loss outcomes. We sought to determine the impact of CPAP use on long-term weight-loss outcomes in a cohort of bariatric patients. Long-term observational study of bariatric surgery patients with OSA. Patients were evaluated with polysomnography preoperatively and one-year postoperatively. The cohort was again evaluated a mean of 7.2 years later to determine the relationship between long-term CPAP use and subsequent regain of weight. Twenty-four consecutive patients (aged 48.5 ± 9.4 years at time of surgery; 73% female) were included in the initial assessment, and long-term outcome data were available on 22 subjects. Persistent OSA was documented in 21 of 22 subjects (95%) one year postoperatively. Final evaluation occurred 7.2 ± 2.3 years following surgery. Weight (213.3 ± 39.1 to 235.3 ± 47.1 lb, p = 0.10) and BMI (32.5 ± 5.4 to 37.3 ± 8.2 kg/m(2), p = 0.03) increased in most (n = 19, 86.4%) from postoperative to final evaluation. CPAP use declined from 83.3% (preoperatively) to 38.1% (one year) and to 23.8% (final evaluation). BMI increased among those not using CPAP at long-term follow-up compared to those with continued CPAP use (6.8% v -1.8%, p = 0.05). In our cohort of bariatric patients with OSA, long-term adherence to CPAP therapy was poor, and non-adherence was associated with weight gain. Ongoing follow-up of OSA in this population may help to preserve initial achievements after surgical weight loss. © 2014 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

Predicting nitrogen and acidity effects on long-term dynamics of dissolved organic matter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, E.C.; Tipping, E.; Posch, M.; Oulehle, F.; Cooper, D.M.; Jones, T.G.; Burden, A.; Hall, J.; Evans, C.D.

2014-01-01

Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes may relate to changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution. We integrated existing models of vegetation growth and soil organic matter turnover, acid–base dynamics, and organic matter mobility, to form the ‘MADOC’ model. After calibrating parameters governing interactions between pH and DOC dissolution using control treatments on two field experiments, MADOC reproduced responses of pH and DOC to additions of acidifying and alkalising solutions. Long-term trends in a range of acid waters were also reproduced. The model suggests that the sustained nature of observed DOC increases can best be explained by a continuously replenishing potentially-dissolved carbon pool, rather than dissolution of a large accumulated store. The simulations informed the development of hypotheses that: DOC increase is related to plant productivity increase as well as to pH change; DOC increases due to nitrogen pollution will become evident, and be sustained, after soil pH has stabilised. -- Highlights: • A model of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was developed by integrating simple models • MADOC simulates effects of sulphur and nitrogen deposition and interactions with pH. • Responses of DOC and pH to experimental acidification and alkalisation were reproduced. • The persistence of DOC increases will depend on continued supply of potential DOC. • DOC fluxes are likely determined by plant productivity as well as soil solution pH. -- Effects of changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution on dissolved organic carbon fluxes are predicted by simulating soil organic matter cycling, the release of potentially-dissolved carbon, and interactions with soil pH

Quantitative analysis of the acute and long-term CD4(+) T-cell response to a persistent gammaherpesvirus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jan Pravsgaard; Doherty, P C

1999-01-01

The murine gammaherpesvirus 68 (MHV-68) replicates in respiratory epithelial cells, where it establishes a persistent, latent infection limited predominantly to B lymphocytes. The virus-specific CD4(+) T-cell response in C57BL/6 mice challenged intranasally with MHV-68 is detected first...... in the mediastinal lymph nodes and then in the cervical lymph nodes and the spleen. The numbers of MHV-68-specific CD4(+) T cells generated in congenic mice homozygous for disruption of the beta2-microglobulin gene tended to be higher, indicating that the absence of the CD8(+) set in this group resulted...... in a compensatory response. The peak frequency within the splenic CD4(+) T-cell population may reach 1:50 in the acute response; it then drops to 1:400 to 1:500 within 4 months and stays at that level in the very long term. Sorting for L-selectin (CD62L) expression established that all virus-specific CD4(+) T cells...

Long-term results of splenectomy in adult chronic immune thrombocytopenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yue; Wang, Shixuan; Xue, Feng; Liu, Xiaofan; Zhang, Lei; Li, Huiyuan; Yang, Renchi

2017-03-01

We performed this study in adult patients with chronic primary immune thrombocytopenia to explore the long-term efficacy and safety of splenectomy. Data of 174 patients who underwent splenectomy in our hospital from 1994 to 2014 were analyzed. After splenectomy, 126 (72.4%) patients achieved a complete response (CR) and 28 (16.1%) achieved a response (R). Thirty-two (20.8%) responders relapsed with a median time of 24 months. Compared with non-responders and recurrent patients, the stable responders were younger and had higher preoperation and postoperation peak platelet count, later peak platelet count emergence time, and more megakaryocytes. Corticosteroid-dependent patients were more likely to response to splenectomy than those refractory to corticosteroid. We performed a relapse-free survival analysis among the 154 responders. In univariate analyses, corticosteroid dependent and time from diagnosis to splenectomy ≤24 months showed predictive value to persistent response. But only corticosteroid dependent was a significant predictor in multivariate analysis. The 30-d complication rate after the surgery was 25.9%. There were five (2.9%) patients experienced thrombosis and three (1.7%) refractory patients died during follow-up. Splenectomy was a safe treatment with a cure rate of 58.0%. Corticosteroid dependent showed predictive value to persistent response. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Conditioned taste aversion modifies persistently the subsequent induction of neocortical long-term potentiation in vivo.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Durán, Luis F; Castillo, Diana V; Moguel-González, Minerva; Escobar, Martha L

2011-05-01

The ability of neurons to modify their synaptic strength in an activity-dependent manner has a crucial role in learning and memory processes. It has been proposed that homeostatic forms of plasticity might provide the global regulation necessary to maintain synaptic strength and plasticity within a functional dynamic range. Similarly, it is considered that the capacity of synapses to express plastic changes is itself subject to variation dependent on previous experience. In particular, training in several behavioral tasks modifies the possibility to induce long-term potentiation (LTP). Our previous studies in the insular cortex (IC) have shown that induction of LTP in the basolateral amygdaloid nucleus (Bla)-IC projection previous to conditioned taste aversion (CTA) training enhances the retention of this task. The aim of the present study was to analyze whether CTA training modifies the ability to induce subsequent LTP in the Bla-IC projection in vivo. Thus, CTA trained rats received high frequency stimulation in the Bla-IC projection in order to induce LTP 48, 72, 96 and 120 h after the aversion test. Our results show that CTA training prevents the subsequent induction of LTP in the Bla-IC projection, for at least 120 h after CTA training. We also showed that pharmacological inhibition of CTA consolidation with anisomycin (1 μl/side; 100 μg/μl) prevents the CTA effect on IC-LTP. These findings reveal that CTA training produces a persistent change in the ability to induce subsequent LTP in the Bla-IC projection in a protein-synthesis dependent manner, suggesting that changes in the ability to induce subsequent synaptic plasticity contribute to the formation and persistence of aversive memories. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Prognosis of Plantar Fasciitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Liselotte; Krogh, Thøger Persson; Ellingsen, Torkell

2018-01-01

, exercise-induced symptoms, bilateral heel pain, fascia thickness, and presence of a heel spur) could predict long-term outcomes, (3) to assess the long-term ultrasound (US) development in the fascia, and (4) to assess whether US-guided corticosteroid injections induce atrophy of the heel fat pad. Study....... The risk was significantly greater for women (P heel...... regardless of symptoms and had no impact on prognosis, and neither did the presence of a heel spur. Only 24% of asymptomatic patients had a normal fascia on US at long-term follow-up. A US-guided corticosteroid injection did not cause atrophy of the heel fat pad. Our observational study did not allow us...

Long-term anti-HBs antibody persistence following infant vaccination against hepatitis B and evaluation of anamnestic response: a 20-year follow-up study in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Poovorawan, Yong; Chongsrisawat, Voranush; Theamboonlers, Apiradee; Crasta, Priya Diana; Messier, Marc; Hardt, Karin

2013-08-01

Hepatitis B vaccine has been available worldwide since the mid-1980s. This vaccine was evaluated in a clinical trial in Thailand, conducted on subjects born to hepatitis B surface antigen positive and hepatitis B e-antigen positive mothers and vaccinated according to a 4-dose schedule at 0, 1, 2 and 12 mo of age and a single dose of hepatitis B immunoglobulin concomitantly at birth. All enrolled subjects seroconverted and were followed for 20 y to assess the persistence of antibody to the hepatitis B surface antigen (anti-HBs) (NCT00240539). At year 20, 64% of subjects had anti-HBs antibody concentrations≥10 milli-international units per milli liter (mIU/ml) and 92% of subjects had detectable levels (≥3.3 mIU/ml) of anti-HBs antibodies. At year 20, subjects with anti-HBs antibody titermemory (NCT00657657). Anamnestic response to the challenge dose was observed in 96.6% of subjects with an 82-fold (13.2 to 1082.4 mIU/ml) increase in anti-HBs antibody geometric mean concentrations. This study confirms the long-term immunogenicity of the 4-dose regimen of the HBV vaccine eliciting long-term persistence of antibodies and immune memory against hepatitis B for up to at least 20 y after vaccination.

Long-term course of opioid addiction.

Science.gov (United States)

Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas

2015-01-01

Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.

Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-08-01

This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Alice R; Bull, C Michael; Brook, Barry W; Wells, Konstans; Pollock, Kenneth H; Fordham, Damien A

2016-03-01

Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of

Predicting short-term mortality and long-term survival for hospitalized US patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cuthbert, Jennifer A; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W; Shah, Jessica P

2014-07-01

No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a US population. We reviewed electronic records for patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD) admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1,761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the previous DF threshold of >32. Admission and theoretical peak scores were calculated by use of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD). Analysis models compared five different scoring systems. INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r (2) = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of the data showed that survival for 28 days was significantly associated with a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status, and creatinine (p short-term mortality (p 50 % mortality at four weeks and >80 % mortality at six months without specific treatment.

Loss of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal diversity in trap cultures during long-term subculturing.

Science.gov (United States)

Trejo-Aguilar, Dora; Lara-Capistrán, Liliana; Maldonado-Mendoza, Ignacio E; Zulueta-Rodríguez, Ramón; Sangabriel-Conde, Wendy; Mancera-López, María Elena; Negrete-Yankelevich, Simoneta; Barois, Isabelle

2013-12-01

Long-term successional dynamics of an inoculum of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) associated with the maize rhizosphere (from traditionally managed agroecosystems in Los Tuxtlas, Veracruz, Mexico), was followed in Bracchiaria comata trap cultures for almost eight years. The results indicate that AMF diversity is lost following long-term subculturing of a single plant host species. Only the dominant species, Claroideoglomus etunicatum, persisted in pot cultures after 13 cycles. The absence of other morphotypes was demonstrated by an 18S rDNA survey, which confirmed that the sequences present solely belonged to C. etunicatum. Members of Diversisporales were the first to decrease in diversity, and the most persistent species belonged to Glomerales.

Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Matthiesen, Henning; Hilbert, Lisbeth Rischel; Gregory, David

2005-01-01

Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems.......Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems....

Dispositional optimism as predictor of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinonen, Erkki; Heiskanen, Tiia; Lindfors, Olavi; Härkäpää, Kristiina; Knekt, Paul

2017-09-01

Dispositional optimism predicts various beneficial outcomes in somatic health and treatment, but has been little studied in psychotherapy. This study investigated whether an optimistic disposition differentially predicts patients' ability to benefit from short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. A total of 326 adult outpatients with mood and/or anxiety disorder were randomized into short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) or long-term psychodynamic therapy and followed up for 3 years. Dispositional optimism was assessed by patients at baseline with the self-rated Life Orientation Test (LOT) questionnaire. Outcome was assessed at baseline and seven times during the follow-up, in terms of depressive (BDI, HDRS), anxiety (SCL-90-ANX, HARS), and general psychiatric symptoms (SCL-90-GSI), all seven follow-up points including patients' self-reports and three including interview-based measures. Lower dispositional optimism predicted faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy. Higher optimism predicted equally rapid and eventually greater benefits in long-term, as compared to short-term, psychotherapy. Weaker optimism appeared to predict sustenance of problems early in long-term therapy. Stronger optimism seems to best facilitate engaging in and benefiting from a long-term therapy process. Closer research might clarify the psychological processes responsible for these effects and help fine-tune both briefer and longer interventions to optimize treatment effectiveness for particular patients and their psychological qualities. Weaker dispositional optimism does not appear to inhibit brief therapy from effecting symptomatic recovery. Patients with weaker optimism do not seem to gain added benefits from long-term therapy, but instead may be susceptible to prolonged psychiatric symptoms in the early stages of long-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Commissioning healthcare for people with long term conditions: the persistence of relational contracting in England's NHS quasi-market.

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, Alison; Mays, Nicholas; Shaw, Sara E; Rosen, Rebecca; Smith, Judith

2013-01-01

challenge the notion of a strict separation of commissioners and providers, and instead demonstrate the adaptive persistence of relational commissioning based on continuity of provision, trust and interdependence between commissioners and providers, at least for services for people with long-term conditions.

Cephalometric variables predicting the long-term success or failure of combined rapid maxillary expansion and facial mask therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

2004-07-01

The aim of this study was to select a model of cephalometric variables to predict the results of early treatment of Class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by comprehensive treatment with fixed appliances. Lateral cephalograms of 42 patients (20 boys, 22 girls) with Class III malocclusion were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age 8 years 6 months +/- 2 years, at stage I in cervical vertebral maturation). All patients were reevaluated after a mean period of 6 years 6 months (at stage IV or V in cervical vertebral maturation) that included active treatment plus retention. At this time, the sample was divided into 2 groups according to occlusal criteria: a successful group (30 patients) and an unsuccessful group (12 patients). Discriminant analysis was applied to select pretreatment predictive variables of long-term treatment outcome. Stepwise variable selection of the cephalometric measurements at the first observation identified 3 predictive variables. Orthopedic treatment of Class III malocclusion might be unfavorable over the long term when a patient's pretreatment cephalometric records exhibit a long mandibular ramus (ie, increased posterior facial height), an acute cranial base angle, and a steep mandibular plane angle. On the basis of the equation generated by the multivariate statistical method, the outcome of interceptive orthopedic treatment for each new patient with Class III malocclusion can be predicted with a probability error of 16.7%.

The predictive value of mental health for long-term sickness absence: the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5) compared.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorsen, Sannie Vester; Rugulies, Reiner; Hjarsbech, Pernille U; Bjorner, Jakob Bue

2013-09-17

Questionnaires are valuable for population surveys of mental health. Different survey instruments may however give different results. The present study compares two mental health instruments, the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5), in regard to their prediction of long-term sickness absence. Questionnaire data was collected from N = 4153 Danish employees. The questionnaire included the MDI and the MHI-5. The information of long-term sickness absence was obtained from a register. We used Cox regression to calculate covariance adjusted hazard ratios for long-term sickness absence for both measures. Both the MDI and the MHI-5 had a highly significant prediction of long-term sickness absence. A one standard deviation change in score was associated with an increased risk of long-term sickness absence of 27% for the MDI and 37% for the MHI-5. When both measures were included in the same analysis, the MHI-5 performed best. In general population surveys, the MHI-5 is a better predictor of long-term sickness absence than the MDI.

A Long Short-Term Memory deep learning network for the prediction of epileptic seizures using EEG signals.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsiouris, Κostas Μ; Pezoulas, Vasileios C; Zervakis, Michalis; Konitsiotis, Spiros; Koutsouris, Dimitrios D; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

2018-05-17

The electroencephalogram (EEG) is the most prominent means to study epilepsy and capture changes in electrical brain activity that could declare an imminent seizure. In this work, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are introduced in epileptic seizure prediction using EEG signals, expanding the use of deep learning algorithms with convolutional neural networks (CNN). A pre-analysis is initially performed to find the optimal architecture of the LSTM network by testing several modules and layers of memory units. Based on these results, a two-layer LSTM network is selected to evaluate seizure prediction performance using four different lengths of preictal windows, ranging from 15 min to 2 h. The LSTM model exploits a wide range of features extracted prior to classification, including time and frequency domain features, between EEG channels cross-correlation and graph theoretic features. The evaluation is performed using long-term EEG recordings from the open CHB-MIT Scalp EEG database, suggest that the proposed methodology is able to predict all 185 seizures, providing high rates of seizure prediction sensitivity and low false prediction rates (FPR) of 0.11-0.02 false alarms per hour, depending on the duration of the preictal window. The proposed LSTM-based methodology delivers a significant increase in seizure prediction performance compared to both traditional machine learning techniques and convolutional neural networks that have been previously evaluated in the literature. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term prediction of chaotic time series with multi-step prediction horizons by a neural network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirzaee, Hossein

2009-01-01

The Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is applied for training a multilayer perception with three hidden layer each with ten neurons in order to carefully map the structure of chaotic time series such as Mackey-Glass time series. First the MLP network is trained with 1000 data, and then it is tested with next 500 data. After that the trained and tested network is applied for long-term prediction of next 120 data which come after test data. The prediction is such a way that, the first inputs to network for prediction are the four last data of test data, then the predicted value is shifted to the regression vector which is the input to the network, then after first four-step of prediction, the input regression vector to network is fully predicted values and in continue, each predicted data is shifted to input vector for subsequent prediction.

PKA and PKC Are Required for Long-Term but Not Short-Term in Vivo Operant Memory in "Aplysia"

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Maximilian; Green, Charity L.; Lyons, Lisa C.

2011-01-01

We investigated the involvement of PKA and PKC signaling in a negatively reinforced operant learning paradigm in "Aplysia", learning that food is inedible (LFI). In vivo injection of PKA or PKC inhibitors blocked long-term LFI memory formation. Moreover, a persistent phase of PKA activity, although not PKC activity, was necessary for long-term…

The long-term nutritional status in stroke patients and its predictive factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Paquereau, Julie; Allart, Etienne; Romon, Monique; Rousseaux, Marc

2014-07-01

Malnutrition is common in the first few months after stroke and contributes to a poor overall outcome. We analyzed long-term weight changes and their predictive factors. A total of 71 first-ever stroke patients were included in the study and examined (1) their weight on admission to the acute stroke unit (usual weight [UW]), on admission to the rehabilitation unit, on discharge from the rehabilitation unit, and then 1 year or more after the stroke (median time: 2.5 years), (2) the presence of malnutrition after stroke, and (3) possible predictive factors, namely, sociodemographic factors, clinical characteristics (concerning the stroke, the patient's current neurologic status and the presence of diabetes mellitus and depression), and the present nutritional state (including eating difficulties, anorexia, and changes in food intake and food preferences). Body weight fell (4.0 kg) during the patients' stay in the stroke unit, increased moderately in the rehabilitation unit (2.0 kg), and returned to the UW by the long-term measurement. However, at the last observation, 40.1% of the patients weighed markedly less than their UW, 38.0% weighed markedly more, and 21.1% were relatively stable. Predictors of weight change were a change in preferences for sweet food products and a change in food intake. Malnutrition was frequent (47.9%) and associated with reduced food intake, residence in an institution, and diabetes mellitus. Malnutrition was highly prevalent, with an important role of change in food intake and food preferences, which could result from brain lesions and specific regimens. Living in an institution needs consideration, as its negative effects can be prevented. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lesion load may predict long-term cognitive dysfunction in multiple sclerosis patients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Patti

Full Text Available Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm in Multiple Sclerosis (MS.To investigate the role of white matter (WM and gray matter (GM in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients.303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up. The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f, WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f, a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT, the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL, the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST, and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT. In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors.AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12-1.97 p = 0.006, PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14-1.80 p = 0.002, SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35-2.20 p<0.001, SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28-2.03 p<0.001, MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2-1.9 p<0.001, MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2-1.9 p = 0.001, MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02-1.55 p = 0.032.In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome.

Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

Science.gov (United States)

Gosz, J.

2001-12-01

estuaries below by removing all incoming freshwater. At Toolik Lake, long-term experiments of removing top predators from the good web of lakes showed dramatic alterations of lake populations of small fish and zooplankton. In New Mexico, LTER research on small mammal populations is successfully predicting rodent increases and the potential for increased zoonotic diseases such as Hantavirus and bubonic plague. This ability to forecast based on El Nino prediction is being used to increase scientific awareness and public health awareness through media based communication with the public. In Oregon, the Andrews Forest LTER program has had long, strong links with natural resource policy and management. Basic understanding of forest-stream interactions, characteristics of old-growth forests, roles of woody debris in temperate forest ecosystems, invertebrate biodiversity and ecosystem function have been incorporated in management guidelines, plans and regulations for public and private lands throughout the Pacific Northwest. Other examples of the values of long-term research and monitoring will be presented.

Predictors of Long-Term Healthy Arterial Aging: Coronary Artery Calcium Nondevelopment in the MESA Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Whelton, Seamus P; Silverman, Michael G; McEvoy, John W; Budoff, Matthew J; Blankstein, Ron; Eng, John; Blumenthal, Roger S; Szklo, Moyses; Nasir, Khurram; Blaha, Michael J

2015-12-01

This study sought to determine the predictors of healthy arterial aging. Long-term nondevelopment of coronary artery calcification (persistent CAC = 0) is a marker of healthy arterial aging. The predictors of this phenotype are not known. We analyzed 1,850 participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with baseline CAC = 0 who underwent a follow-up CAC scan at visit 5 (median 9.6 years after baseline). We examined the proportion with persistent CAC = 0 and calculated multivariable relative risks and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for prediction of this healthy arterial aging phenotype. We found that 55% of participants (n = 1,000) had persistent CAC = 0, and these individuals were significantly more likely to be younger, female, and have fewer traditional risk factors (RF). Participants with an ASCVD (Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score) risk score healthy arterial aging than were participants with an ASCVD score ≥7.5%. There was no significant association between the Healthy Lifestyle variables (body mass index, physical activity, Mediterranean diet, and never smoking) and persistent CAC = 0. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve incorporating age, sex, and ethnicity was 0.65, indicating fair to poor discrimination. No single traditional RF or combination of other risk factors increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve by more than 0.05. Whereas participants free of traditional cardiovascular disease RF were significantly more likely to have persistent CAC = 0, there was no single RF or specific low-risk RF phenotype that markedly improved the discrimination of persistent CAC = 0 over demographic variables. Therefore, we conclude that healthy arterial aging may be predominantly influenced by the long-term maintenance of a low cardiovascular disease risk profile or yet to be determined genetic factors rather than the absence of any specific RF cluster identified

Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

Medium- and long-term consequences of pollution on labor supply: evidence from Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Younoh Kim

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract We use a natural experiment in Indonesia to study the medium- and long-term effects of air pollution on labor supply. We find that exposure to air pollution reduces hours worked and while the medium-term effects are larger in magnitude, some effects do persist in the long term. More interestingly, we are able to provide some insight regarding the underlying channels that contribute to the reduced labor supply. Own health seems to be the only responsible channel in the long term, while in the medium term, a different channel based on dependent caregiving is the most important. JEL Classification: J22, Q53

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

2017-01-01

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

Persistency of Prediction Accuracy and Genetic Gain in Synthetic Populations Under Recurrent Genomic Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Dominik; Schopp, Pascal; Melchinger, Albrecht E

2017-03-10

Recurrent selection (RS) has been used in plant breeding to successively improve synthetic and other multiparental populations. Synthetics are generated from a limited number of parents [Formula: see text] but little is known about how [Formula: see text] affects genomic selection (GS) in RS, especially the persistency of prediction accuracy ([Formula: see text]) and genetic gain. Synthetics were simulated by intermating [Formula: see text]= 2-32 parent lines from an ancestral population with short- or long-range linkage disequilibrium ([Formula: see text]) and subjected to multiple cycles of GS. We determined [Formula: see text] and genetic gain across 30 cycles for different training set ( TS ) sizes, marker densities, and generations of recombination before model training. Contributions to [Formula: see text] and genetic gain from pedigree relationships, as well as from cosegregation and [Formula: see text] between QTL and markers, were analyzed via four scenarios differing in (i) the relatedness between TS and selection candidates and (ii) whether selection was based on markers or pedigree records. Persistency of [Formula: see text] was high for small [Formula: see text] where predominantly cosegregation contributed to [Formula: see text], but also for large [Formula: see text] where [Formula: see text] replaced cosegregation as the dominant information source. Together with increasing genetic variance, this compensation resulted in relatively constant long- and short-term genetic gain for increasing [Formula: see text] > 4, given long-range LD A in the ancestral population. Although our scenarios suggest that information from pedigree relationships contributed to [Formula: see text] for only very few generations in GS, we expect a longer contribution than in pedigree BLUP, because capturing Mendelian sampling by markers reduces selective pressure on pedigree relationships. Larger TS size ([Formula: see text]) and higher marker density improved persistency of

Mechanisms of translation control underlying long-lasting synaptic plasticity and the consolidation of long-term memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Santini, Emanuela; Huynh, Thu N; Klann, Eric

2014-01-01

The complexity of memory formation and its persistence is a phenomenon that has been studied intensely for centuries. Memory exists in many forms and is stored in various brain regions. Generally speaking, memories are reorganized into broadly distributed cortical networks over time through systems level consolidation. At the cellular level, storage of information is believed to initially occur via altered synaptic strength by processes such as long-term potentiation. New protein synthesis is required for long-lasting synaptic plasticity as well as for the formation of long-term memory. The mammalian target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1) is a critical regulator of cap-dependent protein synthesis and is required for numerous forms of long-lasting synaptic plasticity and long-term memory. As such, the study of mTORC1 and protein factors that control translation initiation and elongation has enhanced our understanding of how the process of protein synthesis is regulated during memory formation. Herein we discuss the molecular mechanisms that regulate protein synthesis as well as pharmacological and genetic manipulations that demonstrate the requirement for proper translational control in long-lasting synaptic plasticity and long-term memory formation. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Long-Short-Term-Memory Recurrent Neural Networks to Predict Aviation Engine Vibrations

Science.gov (United States)

ElSaid, AbdElRahman Ahmed

This thesis examines building viable Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neurons to predict aircraft engine vibrations. The different networks are trained on a large database of flight data records obtained from an airline containing flights that suffered from excessive vibration. RNNs can provide a more generalizable and robust method for prediction over analytical calculations of engine vibration, as analytical calculations must be solved iteratively based on specific empirical engine parameters, and this database contains multiple types of engines. Further, LSTM RNNs provide a "memory" of the contribution of previous time series data which can further improve predictions of future vibration values. LSTM RNNs were used over traditional RNNs, as those suffer from vanishing/exploding gradients when trained with back propagation. The study managed to predict vibration values for 1, 5, 10, and 20 seconds in the future, with 2.84% 3.3%, 5.51% and 10.19% mean absolute error, respectively. These neural networks provide a promising means for the future development of warning systems so that suitable actions can be taken before the occurrence of excess vibration to avoid unfavorable situations during flight.

The family environment predicts long-term academic achievement and classroom behavior following traumatic brain injury in early childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Durber, Chelsea M; Yeates, Keith Owen; Taylor, H Gerry; Walz, Nicolay Chertkoff; Stancin, Terry; Wade, Shari L

2017-07-01

This study examined how the family environment predicts long-term academic and behavioral functioning in school following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in early childhood. Using a concurrent cohort, prospective design, 15 children with severe TBI, 39 with moderate TBI, and 70 with orthopedic injury (OI) who were injured when they were 3-7 years of age were compared on tests of academic achievement and parent and teacher ratings of school performance and behavior on average 6.83 years postinjury. Soon after injury and at the longer term follow-up, families completed measures of parental psychological distress, family functioning, and quality of the home environment. Hierarchical linear regression analyses examined group differences in academic outcomes and their associations with measures of the early and later family environment. The severe TBI group, but not the moderate TBI group, performed worse than did the OI group on all achievement tests, parent ratings of academic performance, and teacher ratings of internalizing problems. Higher quality early and late home environments predicted stronger academic skills and better classroom behavior for children with both TBI and OI. The early family environment more consistently predicted academic achievement, whereas the later family environment more consistently predicted classroom functioning. The quality of the home environment predicted academic outcomes more strongly than did parental psychological distress or family functioning. TBI in early childhood has long-term consequences for academic achievement and school performance and behavior. Higher quality early and later home environments predict better school outcomes for both children with TBI and children with OI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

Science.gov (United States)

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

2016-05-01

Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-term risks of kidney living donation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maggiore, Umberto; Budde, Klemens; Heemann, Uwe

2017-01-01

Two recent matched cohort studies from the USA and Norway published in 2014 have raised some concerns related to the long-term safety of kidney living donation. Further studies on the long-term risks of living donation have since been published. In this position paper, Developing Education Science...... and Care for Renal Transplantation in European States (DESCARTES) board members critically review the literature in an effort to summarize the current knowledge concerning long-term risks of kidney living donation to help physicians for decision-making purposes and for providing information...... to the prospective live donors. Long-term risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) can be partially foreseen by trying to identify donors at risk of developing ‘de novo’ kidney diseases during life post-donation and by predicting lifetime ESRD risk. However, lifetime risk may be difficult to assess in young donors...

SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM WATER LEVEL PREDICTION AT ONE RIVER MEASUREMENT LOCATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rudolf Scitovski

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Global hydrological cycles mainly depend on climate changes whose occurrence is predominantly triggered by solar and terrestrial influence, and the knowledge of the high water regime is widely applied in hydrology. Regular monitoring and studying of river water level behavior is important from several perspectives. On the basis of the given data, by using modifications of general approaches known from literature, especially from investigation in hydrology, the problem of long- and short-term water level forecast at one river measurement location is considered in the paper. Long-term forecasting is considered as the problem of investigating the periodicity of water level behavior by using linear-trigonometric regression and short-term forecasting is based on the modification of the nearest neighbor method. The proposed methods are tested on data referring to the Drava River level by Donji Miholjac, Croatia, in the period between the beginning of 1900 and the end of 2012.

Implicit short- and long-term memory direct our gaze in visual search.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruijne, Wouter; Meeter, Martijn

2016-04-01

Visual attention is strongly affected by the past: both by recent experience and by long-term regularities in the environment that are encoded in and retrieved from memory. In visual search, intertrial repetition of targets causes speeded response times (short-term priming). Similarly, targets that are presented more often than others may facilitate search, even long after it is no longer present (long-term priming). In this study, we investigate whether such short-term priming and long-term priming depend on dissociable mechanisms. By recording eye movements while participants searched for one of two conjunction targets, we explored at what stages of visual search different forms of priming manifest. We found both long- and short- term priming effects. Long-term priming persisted long after the bias was present, and was again found even in participants who were unaware of a color bias. Short- and long-term priming affected the same stage of the task; both biased eye movements towards targets with the primed color, already starting with the first eye movement. Neither form of priming affected the response phase of a trial, but response repetition did. The results strongly suggest that both long- and short-term memory can implicitly modulate feedforward visual processing.

Testing Hypotheses in an I(2) Model with Applications to the Persistent Long Swings in the Dmk/$ Rate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina; Frydman, Roman

and persistent swings in the foreign exchange market between Germany and USA. The data analyzed consist of nominal exchange rates, relative prices, US inflation rate, two long-term interest rates and two short-term interest rates over the 1975-1999 period. One important aim of the paper is to demonstrate...... that by structuring the data with the help of the I(2) model one can achieve a better understanding of the empirical regularities underlying the persistent swings in nominal exchange rates, typical in periods of floating exchange rates...

Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

2018-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

Persistent Associative Plasticity at an Identified Synapse Underlying Classical Conditioning Becomes Labile with Short-Term Homosynaptic Activation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Jiangyuan; Schacher, Samuel

2015-12-09

Synapses express different forms of plasticity that contribute to different forms of memory, and both memory and plasticity can become labile after reactivation. We previously reported that a persistent form of nonassociative long-term facilitation (PNA-LTF) of the sensorimotor synapses in Aplysia californica, a cellular analog of long-term sensitization, became labile with short-term heterosynaptic reactivation and reversed when the reactivation was followed by incubation with the protein synthesis inhibitor rapamycin. Here we examined the reciprocal impact of different forms of short-term plasticity (reactivations) on a persistent form of associative long-term facilitation (PA-LTF), a cellular analog of classical conditioning, which was expressed at Aplysia sensorimotor synapses when a tetanic stimulation of the sensory neurons was paired with a brief application of serotonin on 2 consecutive days. The expression of short-term homosynaptic plasticity [post-tetanic potentiation or homosynaptic depression (HSD)], or short-term heterosynaptic plasticity [serotonin-induced facilitation or neuropeptide Phe-Met-Arg-Phe-NH2 (FMRFa)-induced depression], at synapses expressing PA-LTF did not affect the maintenance of PA-LTF. The kinetics of HSD was attenuated at synapses expressing PA-LTF, which required activation of protein kinase C (PKC). Both PA-LTF and the attenuated kinetics of HSD were reversed by either a transient blockade of PKC activity or a homosynaptic, but not heterosynaptic, reactivation when paired with rapamycin. These results indicate that two different forms of persistent synaptic plasticity, PA-LTF and PNA-LTF, expressed at the same synapse become labile when reactivated by different stimuli. Activity-dependent changes in neural circuits mediate long-term memories. Some forms of long-term memories become labile and can be reversed with specific types of reactivations, but the mechanism is complex. At the cellular level, reactivations that induce a

Frequency and Cause of Persistent Symptoms in Celiac Disease Patients on a Long-term Gluten-free Diet.

Science.gov (United States)

Stasi, Elisa; Marafini, Irene; Caruso, Roberta; Soderino, Federica; Angelucci, Erika; Del Vecchio Blanco, Giovanna; Paoluzi, Omero A; Calabrese, Emma; Sedda, Silvia; Zorzi, Francesca; Pallone, Francesco; Monteleone, Giovanni

2016-03-01

To estimate the frequency and cause of nonresponsive celiac disease (CD). Treatment of CD is based on life-long adherence to a gluten-free diet (GFD). Some celiac patients experience persistence of symptoms despite a GFD. This condition is defined as nonresponsive CD. Celiac patients on a GFD for at least 12 months underwent diet compliance assessment, laboratory tests, breath tests, endoscopic, and histologic evaluations according to the symptoms/signs reported. Seventy of 321 (21.8%) patients had persistent or recurrent symptoms/signs. The cause of symptom persistence was evaluated in 56 of 70 patients. Thirteen of 56 (23%) patients were antiendomysial antibody positive. Among the patients with negative serology, 1 had fibromyalgia, and 3 had evidence that disproved the diagnosis of CD. The remaining 39 patients with negative serology underwent duodenal biopsy sampling, which evidenced histologic alterations in 24 patients. Among the 15 patients with normal histology 3 were lactose intolerant, 9 had irritable bowel syndrome, 2 had gastroesophageal reflux disease, and in 1 patient a cause for the persistent symptom was not identified. In patients with confirmed diagnosis of CD, exposure to dietary gluten was the main cause of persistence of symptoms/signs, and consistently after dietary modification, symptoms resolved in 63% of the patients at later time points during follow-up. Nonresponsive CD occurs in nearly one fifth of celiac patients on GFD and its occurrence suggests further investigations to optimize the management of celiac patients.

Long-term impact of perfusion CT data after subarachnoid hemorrhage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathys, Christian; Martens, Daniel; Reichelt, Dorothea C.; Caspers, Julian; Aissa, Joel; May, Rebecca; Antoch, Gerald; Turowski, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Duesseldorf (Germany); Haenggi, Daniel [University Duesseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Neurosurgery, Duesseldorf (Germany)

2013-11-15

Dynamic perfusion computed tomography (PCT) has been established as a diagnostic instrument for the detection of vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic impact of PCT parameters after SAH on the long-term outcome of patients. Three hundred twelve patients were retrospectively interrogated with a questionnaire 23.06 {+-} 14.33 months after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage. The modified Rankin scale (mRS) was determined, respectively. Scheduled PCT data sets from the first days after ictus were available for all patients. The maximum mean transit time over several examinations per hemisphere (MTT{sub PEAK}) values were significantly correlated (p {<=} 0.001, r = 0.422) with the clinical long-term outcome (mRS). Corresponding to our linear regression analysis, MTT{sub PEAK} is the second most important regressor (behind clinical severity of the initial hemorrhage) for the prediction of long-term mRS. An MTT{sub PEAK} threshold of 3.98 s (identified by receiver operating characteristic analysis, area under the curve = 0.75) predicted an unfavorable long-term outcome (mRS {>=} 2) with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of 67.3, 74.3, 84.5, 52.1, and 69.6 %, respectively. The presented data corroborate the relevance of PCT data for the clinical long-term outcome of SAH patients. By identification of patients who are at risk for a bad outcome and may need escalation of therapy, risk-benefit analysis is supported. (orig.)

The role of nuclear techniques in the long-term prediction of radionuclide transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Airey, P.L.; Duerden, P.

1985-01-01

Problems associated with the long-term prediction of the migration of radionuclides, and the role of natural analogues in reducing the inherent uncertainties are discussed. Particular reference is made to the evaluation of uranium ore bodies in the Alligator Rivers region, Northern Territory, as analogues of high-level radioactive waste repositories. A range of nuclear techniques has been used to identify the role of colloids, of alpha recoil and of mineralogy in transport. Specific mention is made of a method being developed which enables models of the migration of solute through fractured rock to be assessed via a combination of alpha track, fission track and PIXE/PIGME techniques

DOP prediction over Egypt from SP3 file for long-term

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aly M. El-naggar

2012-09-01

Full Text Available An important error source in satellite surveying deals with the geometry of the visible satellite constellation at the time of observation. This is similar to the situation in traditional surveys, where the geometry of the network of observed ground stations affects the accuracies of computed positions. Dilution of precision (DOP is an indicator of the quality of the geometry of the visible satellite constellation. The value of DOP is very important during observation sessions, because many projects have special requirements regarding the positioning accuracy. These special requirements will force the surveyor to hold the survey mission until the value of dilution of precision at the time of observation meets the project’s requirements. This means that the GPS mission planning is an essential task before any GPS survey. The task of this paper is related to The GPS mission planning which the values of dilution of precisions and number of visible satellites should be predicted for the observation points, this task should determine the best observation periods which meet the project requirements. This paper explore the process of DOP prediction for long term by using Standard Product 3 (SP3 file and attempt to mathematically or statistically bound the navigation error. In this paper the actual orbital period of GPS satellite was defined and the DOP contour map over Egypt was constructed. By using these contour maps one can predict the DOP by knowing the city name.

Persistence of antibodies 20 y after vaccination with a combined hepatitis A and B vaccine.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Damme, Pierre; Leroux-Roels, Geert; Suryakiran, P; Folschweiller, Nicolas; Van Der Meeren, Olivier

2017-05-04

Vaccination is the most effective and well-tolerated method of conferring long-term protection against hepatitis A and B viruses (HAV; HBV). Long-term studies are required to characterize the duration of protection and need for boosters. Following primary immunization of 150 and 157 healthy adults with 3-doses of combined hepatitis A/hepatitis B vaccine (HAB; Twinrix™, GSK Vaccines, Belgium) at 0-1-6 months in 2 separate studies, we measured vaccine-induced antibody persistence against HAV and HBV annually for 20 y (Study A: NCT01000324; Study B: NCT01037114). Subjects with circulating anti-HAV antibodies B surface antigen B vaccine dose (Havrix™/Engerix™-B, GSK Vaccines, Belgium). Applying the immunogenicity results from these studies, mathematical modeling predicted long-term persistence. After 20 y, 18 and 25 subjects in studies A and B, respectively, comprised the long-term according-to-protocol cohort for immunogenicity; 100% and 96.0% retained anti-HAV antibodies ≥ 15 mIU/mL, respectively; 94.4% and 92.0% had anti-HBs antibodies ≥ 10 mIU/mL, respectively. Between Years 16-20, 4 subjects who received a challenge dose of monovalent hepatitis A vaccine (N = 2) or hepatitis B vaccine (N = 2), all mounted a strong anamnestic response suggestive of immune memory despite low antibody levels. Mathematical modeling predicts that 40 y after vaccination ≥ 97% vaccinees will maintain anti-HAV ≥ 15 mIU/mL and ≥ 50% vaccinees will retain anti-HBs ≥ 10 mIU/mL. Immunogenicity data confirm that primary immunization with 3-doses of HAB induces persisting anti-HAV and anti-HBs specific antibodies in most adults for up to 20 y; mathematical modeling predicts even longer-term protection.

Persistence of antibodies 20 y after vaccination with a combined hepatitis A and B vaccine

Science.gov (United States)

Van Damme, Pierre; Leroux-Roels, Geert; Suryakiran, P.; Folschweiller, Nicolas; Van Der Meeren, Olivier

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Vaccination is the most effective and well-tolerated method of conferring long-term protection against hepatitis A and B viruses (HAV; HBV). Long-term studies are required to characterize the duration of protection and need for boosters. Following primary immunization of 150 and 157 healthy adults with 3-doses of combined hepatitis A/hepatitis B vaccine (HAB; Twinrix™, GSK Vaccines, Belgium) at 0-1-6 months in 2 separate studies, we measured vaccine-induced antibody persistence against HAV and HBV annually for 20 y (Study A: NCT01000324; Study B: NCT01037114). Subjects with circulating anti-HAV antibodies hepatitis B surface antigen hepatitis A and/or B vaccine dose (Havrix™/Engerix™-B, GSK Vaccines, Belgium). Applying the immunogenicity results from these studies, mathematical modeling predicted long-term persistence. After 20 y, 18 and 25 subjects in studies A and B, respectively, comprised the long-term according-to-protocol cohort for immunogenicity; 100% and 96.0% retained anti-HAV antibodies ≥ 15 mIU/mL, respectively; 94.4% and 92.0% had anti-HBs antibodies ≥ 10 mIU/mL, respectively. Between Years 16–20, 4 subjects who received a challenge dose of monovalent hepatitis A vaccine (N = 2) or hepatitis B vaccine (N = 2), all mounted a strong anamnestic response suggestive of immune memory despite low antibody levels. Mathematical modeling predicts that 40 y after vaccination ≥ 97% vaccinees will maintain anti-HAV ≥ 15 mIU/mL and ≥ 50% vaccinees will retain anti-HBs ≥ 10 mIU/mL. Immunogenicity data confirm that primary immunization with 3-doses of HAB induces persisting anti-HAV and anti-HBs specific antibodies in most adults for up to 20 y; mathematical modeling predicts even longer-term protection. PMID:28281907

On the very long term delayed behavior of concrete

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torrenti, J.M.; Benboudjema, F.; Barre, F.; Gallitre, E.

2015-01-01

The prediction of very long-term deformation of prestressed concrete structures is a major challenge considering the service life of these structures. It is therefore necessary to correctly model the delayed behavior of these structures. Using a review of laboratory tests and observations of the delayed behavior of structures (bridges and nuclear power plants), the main conclusions of this work are the following ones. First, very long term creep in laboratory or of real structures seems to be non asymptotic. In the actual Eurocode-2, creep is calculated by means of an asymptotic hyperbolic function while in the recent Model Code 2010 creep is expressed as a combination of an asymptotic and a logarithmic functions. In the latter case the logarithmic function corresponds to basic creep while drying creep is asymptotic. Secondly, using a long test (3 years) in a laboratory is not enough to assess the long term behaviour of a massive structure. We need physical relations for creep in codes in order to predict the delayed behavior of massive structures. Thirdly, the biaxial creep of nuclear power plant could be modelled but using data of the structure itself. This would allow to predict the delayed behavior of these structures. Further work is needed to improve the prediction in the design phase

Biochemical Mechanisms and Energy Strategies of Geobacter sulfurreducens for Long- Term Survival

Science.gov (United States)

Helmus, R. A.; Liermann, L. J.; Brantley, S. L.; Tien, M.

2008-12-01

Numerous species of bacteria have been observed to exhibit a growth advantage in stationary phase (GASP) phenotype, indicating that microorganisms starved of an energy source may adapt to allow for long-term survival. Understanding how Geobacter sulfurreducens persists using various metal forms as energy sources and whether a GASP phenotype develops during long-term growth are important for efficient application of this bacterium to sites requiring engineered bioremediation of soluble metals. Thus, we investigated the growth kinetics and survival of G. sulfurreducens. The growth rate of G. sulfurreducens was highest when cultured with soluble iron and generally higher on iron oxide than manganese oxide, suggesting that soluble metal forms are more readily utilized as energy sources by G. sulfurreducens. By monitoring the abundance of G. sulfurreducens in batch cultures for >6 months, distinct growth, stationary, and prolonged starvation phases were observed and a cell density of 105- 106 cells/mL persisted under long-term starvation conditions. The outgrowth of an aged G. sulfurreducens strain co-cultured with a young strain was monitored as a measure of the existence of the GASP phenotype. As the strains aged, the rpoS gene was cloned and sequenced at different stages of growth to identify mutations corresponding to a growth advantage. The results of these studies provide insight into the use of various metal forms for growth by G. sulfurreducens and its ability to persist when starved of energy sources.

Sleep Quality, Short-Term and Long-Term CPAP Adherence

Science.gov (United States)

Somiah, Manya; Taxin, Zachary; Keating, Joseph; Mooney, Anne M.; Norman, Robert G.; Rapoport, David M.; Ayappa, Indu

2012-01-01

Study Objectives: Adherence to CPAP therapy is low in patients with obstructive sleep apnea/hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS). The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the utility of measures of sleep architecture and sleep continuity on the CPAP titration study as predictors of both short- and long-term CPAP adherence. Methods: 93 patients with OSAHS (RDI 42.8 ± 34.3/h) underwent in-laboratory diagnostic polysomnography, CPAP titration, and follow-up polysomnography (NPSG) on CPAP. Adherence to CPAP was objectively monitored. Short-term (ST) CPAP adherence was averaged over 14 days immediately following the titration study. Long-term (LT) CPAP adherence was obtained in 56/93 patients after approximately 2 months of CPAP use. Patients were grouped into CPAP adherence groups for ST ( 4 h) and LT adherence ( 4 h). Sleep architecture, sleep disordered breathing (SDB) indices, and daytime outcome variables from the diagnostic and titration NPSGs were compared between CPAP adherence groups. Results: There was a significant relationship between ST and LT CPAP adherence (r = 0.81, p CPAP adherence groups had significantly lower %N2 and greater %REM on the titration NPSG. A model combining change in sleep efficiency and change in sleep continuity between the diagnostic and titration NPSGs predicted 17% of the variance in LT adherence (p = 0.006). Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that characteristics of sleep architecture, even on the titration NPSG, may predict some of the variance in CPAP adherence. Better sleep quality on the titration night was related to better CPAP adherence, suggesting that interventions to improve sleep on/prior to the CPAP titration study might be used as a therapeutic intervention to improve CPAP adherence. Citation: Somiah M; Taxin Z; Keating J; Mooney AM; Norman RG; Rapoport DM; Ayappa I. Sleep quality, short-term and long-term CPAP adherence. J Clin Sleep Med 2012;8(5):489-500. PMID:23066359

Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

Science.gov (United States)

Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

2016-01-01

Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

2016-01-01

The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

Australia's long-term electricity demand forecasting using deep neural networks

OpenAIRE

Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Joorabloo, Nima; Jalili, Mahdi

2018-01-01

Accurate prediction of long-term electricity demand has a significant role in demand side management and electricity network planning and operation. Demand over-estimation results in over-investment in network assets, driving up the electricity prices, while demand under-estimation may lead to under-investment resulting in unreliable and insecure electricity. In this manuscript, we apply deep neural networks to predict Australia's long-term electricity demand. A stacked autoencoder is used in...

Long-term multipactor discharge in multicarrier systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anza, S.; Vicente, C.; Gimeno, B.; Boria, V. E.; Armendariz, J.

2007-01-01

A new mechanism of long-term multipactor in multicarrier systems is studied employing both analytical and numerical methods. In particular, the investigation is focused on the impact that a realistic secondary emission yield at low energies produces on the development of long term multipactor. A novel analytical model for this interperiod charge accumulation is presented using the traditional multipactor theory for parallel plates, and approximating the multicarrier signal as a single-carrier signal modulated by a pulsed signal envelope. The analytical predictions are verified by numerical simulations for a typical rectangular waveguide. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the susceptibility of the system to develop a long-term multipactor discharge increases with higher values of low-energy secondary emission yield

The Interval Slope Method for Long-Term Forecasting of Stock Price Trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun-xue Nie

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A stock price is a typical but complex type of time series data. We used the effective prediction of long-term time series data to schedule an investment strategy and obtain higher profit. Due to economic, environmental, and other factors, it is very difficult to obtain a precise long-term stock price prediction. The exponentially segmented pattern (ESP is introduced here and used to predict the fluctuation of different stock data over five future prediction intervals. The new feature of stock pricing during the subinterval, named the interval slope, can characterize fluctuations in stock price over specific periods. The cumulative distribution function (CDF of MSE was compared to those of MMSE-BC and SVR. We concluded that the interval slope developed here can capture more complex dynamics of stock price trends. The mean stock price can then be predicted over specific time intervals relatively accurately, in which multiple mean values over time intervals are used to express the time series in the long term. In this way, the prediction of long-term stock price can be more precise and prevent the development of cumulative errors.

Distinct cerebellar engrams in short-term and long-term motor learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wen; Nakadate, Kazuhiko; Masugi-Tokita, Miwako; Shutoh, Fumihiro; Aziz, Wajeeha; Tarusawa, Etsuko; Lorincz, Andrea; Molnár, Elek; Kesaf, Sebnem; Li, Yun-Qing; Fukazawa, Yugo; Nagao, Soichi; Shigemoto, Ryuichi

2014-01-07

Cerebellar motor learning is suggested to be caused by long-term plasticity of excitatory parallel fiber-Purkinje cell (PF-PC) synapses associated with changes in the number of synaptic AMPA-type glutamate receptors (AMPARs). However, whether the AMPARs decrease or increase in individual PF-PC synapses occurs in physiological motor learning and accounts for memory that lasts over days remains elusive. We combined quantitative SDS-digested freeze-fracture replica labeling for AMPAR and physical dissector electron microscopy with a simple model of cerebellar motor learning, adaptation of horizontal optokinetic response (HOKR) in mouse. After 1-h training of HOKR, short-term adaptation (STA) was accompanied with transient decrease in AMPARs by 28% in target PF-PC synapses. STA was well correlated with AMPAR decrease in individual animals and both STA and AMPAR decrease recovered to basal levels within 24 h. Surprisingly, long-term adaptation (LTA) after five consecutive daily trainings of 1-h HOKR did not alter the number of AMPARs in PF-PC synapses but caused gradual and persistent synapse elimination by 45%, with corresponding PC spine loss by the fifth training day. Furthermore, recovery of LTA after 2 wk was well correlated with increase of PF-PC synapses to the control level. Our findings indicate that the AMPARs decrease in PF-PC synapses and the elimination of these synapses are in vivo engrams in short- and long-term motor learning, respectively, showing a unique type of synaptic plasticity that may contribute to memory consolidation.

Long-term recurrence and death rates after acute pancreatitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Helle; Tønnesen, Hanne; Tønnesen, Maja Hanne

2006-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare long-term recurrence and death rates after a first episode of acute pancreatitis in patients with and without gallstones. Additionally, it was of interest to find out if there were factors predictive of readmission or death.......The aim of this study was to compare long-term recurrence and death rates after a first episode of acute pancreatitis in patients with and without gallstones. Additionally, it was of interest to find out if there were factors predictive of readmission or death....

Long-term memory consolidation: The role of RNA-binding proteins with prion-like domains.

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Sudhakaran, Indulekha P; Ramaswami, Mani

2017-05-04

Long-term and short-term memories differ primarily in the duration of their retention. At a molecular level, long-term memory (LTM) is distinguished from short-term memory (STM) by its requirement for new gene expression. In addition to transcription (nuclear gene expression) the translation of stored mRNAs is necessary for LTM formation. The mechanisms and functions for temporal and spatial regulation of mRNAs required for LTM is a major contemporary problem, of interest from molecular, cell biological, neurobiological and clinical perspectives. This review discusses primary evidence in support for translational regulatory events involved in LTM and a model in which different phases of translation underlie distinct phases of consolidation of memories. However, it focuses largely on mechanisms of memory persistence and the role of prion-like domains in this defining aspect of long-term memory. We consider primary evidence for the concept that Cytoplasmic Polyadenylation Element Binding (CPEB) protein enables the persistence of formed memories by transforming in prion-like manner from a soluble monomeric state to a self-perpetuating and persistent polymeric translationally active state required for maintaining persistent synaptic plasticity. We further discuss prion-like domains prevalent on several other RNA-binding proteins involved in neuronal translational control underlying LTM. Growing evidence indicates that such RNA regulatory proteins are components of mRNP (RiboNucleoProtein) granules. In these proteins, prion-like domains, being intrinsically disordered, could mediate weak transient interactions that allow the assembly of RNP granules, a source of silenced mRNAs whose translation is necessary for LTM. We consider the structural bases for RNA granules formation as well as functions of disordered domains and discuss how these complicate the interpretation of existing experimental data relevant to general mechanisms by which prion-domain containing RBPs

Prediction of Bond Wire Fatigue of IGBTs in a PV Inverter Under a Long-Term Operation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Wang, Huai; Yang, Yongheng

2016-01-01

consumption of bond wires of IGBT modules in a Photovoltaic (PV) inverter. The variations in IGBT parameters (e.g., on-state collector-emitter voltage), lifetime models, and environmental and operational stresses are taken into account in the lifetime prediction. The distribution of the annual lifetime...... consumption is estimated based on a long-term annual stress profile of solar irradiance and ambient temperature. The proposed method enables a more realistic lifetime prediction with a specified confidence level compared to the state-of-the-art approaches. A study case of IGBT modules in a 10 kW three......Bond wire fatigue is one of the dominant failure mechanisms in IGBT modules under cyclic stresses. However, there are still major challenges ahead to achieve a realistic bond wire lifetime prediction in field operation. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based analysis method to predict the lifetime...

Long term persistence in the sea surface temperature fluctuations

OpenAIRE

Monetti, Roberto A.; Havlin, Shlomo; Bunde, Armin

2002-01-01

We study the temporal correlations in the sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations around the seasonal mean values in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. We apply a method that systematically overcome possible trends in the data. We find that the SST persistence, characterized by the correlation $C(s)$ of temperature fluctuations separated by a time period $s$, displays two different regimes. In the short-time regime which extends up to roughly 10 months, the temperature fluctuations display a...

Prediction of overall persistence and long-range transport potential with multimedia fate models: robustness and sensitivity of results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fenner, Kathrin; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

2004-01-01

The hazard indicators persistence (P) and long-range transport potential (LRTP) are used in chemicals assessment to characterize chemicals with regard to the temporal and spatial extent of their environmental exposure. They are often calculated based on the results of multimedia fate models. The environmental and substance-specific input parameters of such models are subject to a range of methodological uncertainties and also influenced by natural variability. We employed probabilistic uncertainty analysis to quantify variance in P and LRTP predictions for chemicals with different partitioning and transport behavior. Variance found in the results is so large that it prevents a clear distinction between chemicals. Additionally, only small improvements are observed when evaluating the results relative to a benchmark chemical. This can be explained by the dominance of substance-specific parameters and the only small direct influence of environmental parameters on P and LRTP as model outcomes. The findings underline the importance of learning how environmental conditions cause variability in substance behavior for improved substance ranking and classification. - Environmental conditions cause variability in substance behavior which need to be considered in chemical ranking schemes

5-Bromo-2'-deoxyuridine impairs long-term food aversion memory in edible snail.

Science.gov (United States)

Efimova, O I; Anokhin, K V

2012-09-01

We studied the involvement of DNA synthesis into molecular mechanisms of long-term memory. Nucleoside analogue 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine (BrdU) is known to incorporate into synthesizing DNA and prevent subsequent DNA replication from this region. To investigate the effect of BrdU administration on long-term memory, terrestrial gastropods edible snails Helix lucorum were trained in the food aversion paradigm. Single-session training (carrot presentation combined with application of 10% quinine solution, three carrot presentations with 10-min intervals) resulted in the formation of long-term memory that persisted for at least 45° days. BrdU administration (250 mg/kg) 30 min before training impaired long-term memory tested 24 h later. Immunohistochemical study revealed BrdU incorporation in the nuclei of identified neurons of defensive behavior.

Differential role of calpain-dependent protein cleavage in intermediate and long-term operant memory in Aplysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyons, Lisa C; Gardner, Jacob S; Lentsch, Cassidy T; Gandour, Catherine E; Krishnan, Harini C; Noakes, Eric J

2017-01-01

In addition to protein synthesis, protein degradation or protein cleavage may be necessary for intermediate (ITM) and long-term memory (LTM) to remove molecular constraints, facilitate persistent kinase activity and modulate synaptic plasticity. Calpains, a family of conserved calcium dependent cysteine proteases, modulate synaptic function through protein cleavage. We used the marine mollusk Aplysia californica to investigate the in vivo role of calpains during intermediate and long-term operant memory formation using the learning that food is inedible (LFI) paradigm. A single LFI training session, in which the animal associates a specific netted seaweed with the failure to swallow, generates short (30min), intermediate (4-6h) and long-term (24h) memory. Using the calpain inhibitors calpeptin and MDL-28170, we found that ITM requires calpain activity for induction and consolidation similar to the previously reported requirements for persistent protein kinase C activity in intermediate-term LFI memory. The induction of LTM also required calpain activity. In contrast to ITM, calpain activity was not necessary for the molecular consolidation of LTM. Surprisingly, six hours after LFI training we found that calpain activity was necessary for LTM, although this is a time at which neither persistent PKC activity nor protein synthesis is required for the maintenance of long-term LFI memory. These results demonstrate that calpains function in multiple roles in vivo during associative memory formation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Persistence of attenuated HIV-1 rev alleles in an epidemiologically linked cohort of long-term survivors infected with nef-deleted virus

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Wesselingh Steven L

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Sydney blood bank cohort (SBBC of long-term survivors consists of multiple individuals infected with nef-deleted, attenuated strains of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1. Although the cohort members have experienced differing clinical courses and now comprise slow progressors (SP as well as long-term nonprogressors (LTNP, longitudinal analysis of nef/long-terminal repeat (LTR sequences demonstrated convergent nef/LTR sequence evolution in SBBC SP and LTNP. Thus, the in vivo pathogenicity of attenuated HIV-1 strains harboured by SBBC members is dictated by factors other than nef/LTR. Therefore, to determine whether defects in other viral genes contribute to attenuation of these HIV-1 strains, we characterized dominant HIV-1 rev alleles that persisted in 4 SBBC subjects; C18, C64, C98 and D36. Results The ability of Rev derived from D36 and C64 to bind the Rev responsive element (RRE in RNA binding assays was reduced by approximately 90% compared to Rev derived from HIV-1NL4-3, C18 or C98. D36 Rev also had a 50–60% reduction in ability to express Rev-dependent reporter constructs in mammalian cells. In contrast, C64 Rev had only marginally decreased Rev function despite attenuated RRE binding. In D36 and C64, attenuated RRE binding was associated with rare amino acid changes at 3 highly conserved residues; Gln to Pro at position 74 immediately N-terminal to the Rev activation domain, and Val to Leu and Ser to Pro at positions 104 and 106 at the Rev C-terminus, respectively. In D36, reduced Rev function was mapped to an unusual 13 amino acid extension at the Rev C-terminus. Conclusion These findings provide new genetic and mechanistic insights important for Rev function, and suggest that Rev function, not Rev/RRE binding may be rate limiting for HIV-1 replication. In addition, attenuated rev alleles may contribute to viral attenuation and long-term survival of HIV-1 infection in a subset of SBBC members.

Safety, Efficacy, and Persistence of Long-Term Mirabegron Treatment for Overactive Bladder in the Daily Clinical Setting: Interim (1-Year) Report from a Japanese Post-Marketing Surveillance Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Daisuke; Tabuchi, Hiromi; Uno, Satoshi

2017-08-01

To report interim 1-year results from a 3-year surveillance study evaluating safety, efficacy, and persistence of long-term mirabegron for overactive bladder (OAB). Patients starting treatment with mirabegron for urinary urgency, daytime frequency, and urgency incontinence associated with OAB were registered and followed up for 3 years. Data were collected on adverse drug reactions (ADR), changes in OAB symptoms, changes in Overactive Bladder Symptom Score (OABSS), and treatment discontinuations. Treatment persistence rates were calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Eighty-one ADR were observed in 72/1139 patients (6.3%) through 1 year of mirabegron treatment, with the incidence highest during the first month. No significant change in residual urine volume was observed at any observation point up to 1 year of mirabegron treatment. Mirabegron was deemed "effective" in 883/1091 patients (80.9%) at 1 year/discontinuation. Total OABSS was decreased with statistical significance at 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year, or at discontinuation (P similar for male and female patients but significantly higher for patients aged ≥65 years (67.3%; n = 908) compared with those aged <65 years (59.8%; n = 231; log-rank test: P = 0.032). Long-term OAB treatment with mirabegron was well-tolerated, with effectiveness maintained through 1 year. Mirabegron treatment persistence was higher than has been previously reported, and was greater in patients aged ≥65 years compared with those aged <65 years. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

A comparative study on prediction methods for China's medium- and long-term coal demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Bing-Bing; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Wang, Jin-Cheng

2015-01-01

Given the dominant position of coal in China's energy structure and in order to ensure a safe and stable energy supply, it is essential to perform a scientific and effective prediction of China's medium- and long-term coal demand. Based on the historical data of coal consumption and related factors such as GDP (Gross domestic product), coal price, industrial structure, total population, energy structure, energy efficiency, coal production and urbanization rate from 1987 to 2012, this study compared the prediction effects of five types of models. These models include the VAR (vector autoregressive model), RBF (radial basis function) neural network model, GA-DEM (genetic algorithm demand estimation model), PSO-DEM (particle swarm optimization demand estimation model) and IO (input–output model). By comparing the results of different models with the corresponding actual coal consumption, it is concluded that with a testing period from 2006 to 2012, the PSO-DEM model has a relatively optimal predicted effect on China's total coal demand, where the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) is close to or below 2%. - Highlights: • The prediction effects of five methods for China's coal demand were compared. • Each model has acceptable prediction results, with MAPE below 5%. • Particle swarm optimization demand estimation model has better forecast efficacy.

PKMzeta maintains spatial, instrumental, and classically conditioned long-term memories.

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Peter Serrano

2008-12-01

Full Text Available How long-term memories are stored is a fundamental question in neuroscience. The first molecular mechanism for long-term memory storage in the brain was recently identified as the persistent action of protein kinase Mzeta (PKMzeta, an autonomously active atypical protein kinase C (PKC isoform critical for the maintenance of long-term potentiation (LTP. PKMzeta maintains aversively conditioned associations, but what general form of information the kinase encodes in the brain is unknown. We first confirmed the specificity of the action of zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP by disrupting long-term memory for active place avoidance with chelerythrine, a second inhibitor of PKMzeta activity. We then examined, using ZIP, the effect of PKMzeta inhibition in dorsal hippocampus (DH and basolateral amygdala (BLA on retention of 1-d-old information acquired in the radial arm maze, water maze, inhibitory avoidance, and contextual and cued fear conditioning paradigms. In the DH, PKMzeta inhibition selectively disrupted retention of information for spatial reference, but not spatial working memory in the radial arm maze, and precise, but not coarse spatial information in the water maze. Thus retention of accurate spatial, but not procedural and contextual information required PKMzeta activity. Similarly, PKMzeta inhibition in the hippocampus did not affect contextual information after fear conditioning. In contrast, PKMzeta inhibition in the BLA impaired retention of classical conditioned stimulus-unconditioned stimulus (CS-US associations for both contextual and auditory fear, as well as instrumentally conditioned inhibitory avoidance. PKMzeta inhibition had no effect on postshock freezing, indicating fear expression mediated by the BLA remained intact. Thus, persistent PKMzeta activity is a general mechanism for both appetitively and aversively motivated retention of specific, accurate learned information, but is not required for processing contextual, imprecise

PKMzeta maintains spatial, instrumental, and classically conditioned long-term memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Serrano, Peter; Friedman, Eugenia L; Kenney, Jana; Taubenfeld, Stephen M; Zimmerman, Joshua M; Hanna, John; Alberini, Cristina; Kelley, Ann E; Maren, Stephen; Rudy, Jerry W; Yin, Jerry C P; Sacktor, Todd C; Fenton, André A

2008-12-23

How long-term memories are stored is a fundamental question in neuroscience. The first molecular mechanism for long-term memory storage in the brain was recently identified as the persistent action of protein kinase Mzeta (PKMzeta), an autonomously active atypical protein kinase C (PKC) isoform critical for the maintenance of long-term potentiation (LTP). PKMzeta maintains aversively conditioned associations, but what general form of information the kinase encodes in the brain is unknown. We first confirmed the specificity of the action of zeta inhibitory peptide (ZIP) by disrupting long-term memory for active place avoidance with chelerythrine, a second inhibitor of PKMzeta activity. We then examined, using ZIP, the effect of PKMzeta inhibition in dorsal hippocampus (DH) and basolateral amygdala (BLA) on retention of 1-d-old information acquired in the radial arm maze, water maze, inhibitory avoidance, and contextual and cued fear conditioning paradigms. In the DH, PKMzeta inhibition selectively disrupted retention of information for spatial reference, but not spatial working memory in the radial arm maze, and precise, but not coarse spatial information in the water maze. Thus retention of accurate spatial, but not procedural and contextual information required PKMzeta activity. Similarly, PKMzeta inhibition in the hippocampus did not affect contextual information after fear conditioning. In contrast, PKMzeta inhibition in the BLA impaired retention of classical conditioned stimulus-unconditioned stimulus (CS-US) associations for both contextual and auditory fear, as well as instrumentally conditioned inhibitory avoidance. PKMzeta inhibition had no effect on postshock freezing, indicating fear expression mediated by the BLA remained intact. Thus, persistent PKMzeta activity is a general mechanism for both appetitively and aversively motivated retention of specific, accurate learned information, but is not required for processing contextual, imprecise, or

Joint ultrasound baseline abnormalities predict a specific long-term clinical outcome in systemic lupus erythematosus patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Corzo, P; Salman-Monte, T C; Torrente-Segarra, V; Polino, L; Mojal, S; Carbonell-Abelló, J

2017-06-01

Objective To describe long-term clinical and serological outcome in all systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) domains in SLE patients with hand arthralgia (HA) and joint ultrasound (JUS) inflammatory abnormalities, and to compare them with asymptomatic SLE patients with normal JUS. Methods SLE patients with HA who presented JUS inflammatory abnormalities ('cases') and SLE patients without HA who did not exhibit JUS abnormalities at baseline ('controls') were included. All SLE clinical and serological domain involvement data were collected. End follow-up clinical activity and damage scores (systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index (SLEDAI), Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology (SLICC/ACR)) were recorded. JUS inflammatory abnormalities were defined based on the Proceedings of the Seventh International Consensus Conference on Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT-7) definitions. Statistical analyses were carried out to compare 'cases' and 'controls'. Results A total of 35 patients were recruited. The 'cases', n = 18/35, had a higher incidence of musculoskeletal involvement (arthralgia and/or arthritis) through the follow-up period (38.9% vs 0%, p = 0.008) and received more hydroxychloroquine (61.1% vs 25.0%, p = 0.034) and methotrexate (27.8% vs 0%, p = 0.046) compared to 'controls', n = 17/35. Other comparisons did not reveal any statistical differences. Conclusions We found SLE patients with arthralgia who presented JUS inflammatory abnormalities received more hydroxychloroquine and methotrexate, mainly due to persistent musculoskeletal involvement over time. JUS appears to be a useful technique for predicting worse musculoskeletal outcome in SLE patients.

The Value of Median Nerve Sonography as a Predictor for Short- and Long-Term Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Carpal Tunnel Syndrome: A Prospective Long-Term Follow-Up Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Marschall

Full Text Available To investigate the prognostic value of B-mode and Power Doppler (PD ultrasound of the median nerve for the short- and long-term clinical outcomes of patients with carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS.Prospective study of 135 patients with suspected CTS seen 3 times: at baseline, then at short-term (3 months and long-term (15-36 months follow-up. At baseline, the cross-sectional area (CSA of the median nerve was measured with ultrasound at 4 levels on the forearm and wrist. PD signals were graded semi-quantitatively (0-3. Clinical outcomes were evaluated at each visit with the Boston Questionnaire (BQ and the DASH Questionnaire, as well as visual analogue scales for the patient's assessment of pain (painVAS and physician's global assessment (physVAS. The predictive values of baseline CSA and PD for clinical outcomes were determined with multivariate logistic regression models.Short-term and long-term follow-up data were available for 111 (82.2% and 105 (77.8% patients, respectively. There was a final diagnosis of CTS in 84 patients (125 wrists. Regression analysis revealed that the CSA, measured at the carpal tunnel inlet, predicted short-term clinical improvement according to BQ in CTS patients undergoing carpal tunnel surgery (OR 1.8, p = 0.05, but not in patients treated conservatively. Neither CSA nor PD assessments predicted short-term improvement of painVAS, physVAS or DASH, nor was any of the ultrasound parameters useful for the prediction of long-term clinical outcomes.Ultrasound assessment of the median nerve at the carpal tunnel inlet may predict short-term clinical improvement in CTS patients undergoing carpal tunnel release, but long-term outcomes are unrelated to ultrasound findings.

Geological predictions for the long-term isolation of radioactive waste based on extrapolating uniform mode and rate of crustal movements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeda, Koji; Tanikawa, Shin-ichi; Yasue, Ken-ichi

2013-01-01

Long-term predictions of geological and tectonic disturbances are key issues for the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal, especially on the Japanese Islands. Geological predictions of disturbances should be performed by extrapolating uniform mode and rate of crustal movements under the current framework. Multiple lines of geological evidence in Japan strongly suggest that the present mode of tectonics began during the late Pliocene to early Quaternary, and was fully developed by the middle Pleistocene. The uplift rates of mountains in Japan are determined to have been approximately constant until the middle Pleistocene based on simulations of temporal changes in mean altitude developed under concurrent tectonics and denudation processes. The onset of the neotectonic mode of deformation was probably triggered by the initiation of the eastward movement of the Amur Plate and the collision of the Izu block with central Honshu. The uncertainty of predictions beyond steady-state crustal deformation would, in general, increase for long-term predictions using the extrapolation procedure. Consequently, future geological and tectonic disturbances in Japan can be estimated with relatively high reliability for the next 100,000 years. (author)

Long-term exposure to noise impairs cortical sound processing and attention control.

Science.gov (United States)

Kujala, Teija; Shtyrov, Yury; Winkler, Istvan; Saher, Marieke; Tervaniemi, Mari; Sallinen, Mikael; Teder-Sälejärvi, Wolfgang; Alho, Kimmo; Reinikainen, Kalevi; Näätänen, Risto

2004-11-01

Long-term exposure to noise impairs human health, causing pathological changes in the inner ear as well as other anatomical and physiological deficits. Numerous individuals are daily exposed to excessive noise. However, there is a lack of systematic research on the effects of noise on cortical function. Here we report data showing that long-term exposure to noise has a persistent effect on central auditory processing and leads to concurrent behavioral deficits. We found that speech-sound discrimination was impaired in noise-exposed individuals, as indicated by behavioral responses and the mismatch negativity brain response. Furthermore, irrelevant sounds increased the distractibility of the noise-exposed subjects, which was shown by increased interference in task performance and aberrant brain responses. These results demonstrate that long-term exposure to noise has long-lasting detrimental effects on central auditory processing and attention control.

Long-term outcomes following laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding: postoperative psychological sequelae predict outcome at 5-year follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Scholtz, Samantha; Bidlake, Louise; Morgan, John; Fiennes, Alberic; El-Etar, Ashraf; Lacey, John Hubert; McCluskey, Sara

2007-09-01

NICE guidelines state that patients with psychological contra-indications should not be considered for bariatric surgery, including Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding (LAGB) surgery as treatment of morbid obesity, although no consistent correlation between psychiatric illness and long-term outcome in LAGB has been established. This is to our knowledge the first study to evaluate long-term outcomes in LAGB for a full range of DSM-IV defined psychiatric and eating disorders, and forms part of a research portfolio developed by the authors aimed at defining psychological predictors of bariatric surgery in the short-, medium- and long-term. Case notes of 37 subjects operated on between April 1997 and June 2000, who had undergone structured clinical interview during pre-surgical assessment to yield diagnoses of mental and eating disorders according to DSM-IV criteria were analyzed according to a set of operationally defined criteria. Statistical analysis was carried out to compare those with a poor outcome and those considered to have a good outcome in terms of psychiatric profile. In this group of mainly female, Caucasian subjects, ranging in age from 27 to 60 years, one-third were diagnosed with a mental disorder according to DSM-IV criteria. The development of postoperative DSM-IV defined binge eating disorder (BED) or depression strongly predicted poor surgical outcome, but pre-surgical psychiatric factors alone did not. Although pre-surgical psychiatric assessment alone cannot predict outcome, an absence of preoperative psychiatric illness should not reassure surgeons who should be mindful of postoperative psychiatric sequelae, particularly BED. The importance of providing an integrated biopsychosocial model of care in bariatric teams is highlighted.

Long-term characteristics of geological conditions in Japan. Pt. 1. Fundamental concept for future's prediction of geological conditions and the subjects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Kazuhiro; Chigira, Masahiro.

1997-01-01

It is very important to evaluate the long-term stability of geological conditions such as volcanic activity, uplift-subsidence, earthquakes, faulting and sea level change when the long-term safety performance of HLW geological disposal is investigated. We proposed the extrapolation method using the geological date obtained in the geologic time of the last 500 ka to predict the future's tectonic movements in Japan. Furthermore, we extract geological conditions that would affect the long-term safety of HLW geological disposal with regard to direct and indirect radionuclide release scenarios. As a result, it was concluded that volcanic activity and tectonic movements including faulting and uplift-subsidence, should be considered and their surveying system and evaluating method should be developed. (author)

Group long-term care insurance: decision-making factors and implications for financing long-term care.

Science.gov (United States)

Stum, Marlene S

2008-01-01

This study proposes and tests a systemic family decision-making framework to understand group long-term care insurance (LTCI) enrollment decisions. A random sample of public employees who were offered group LTCI as a workplace benefit were examined. Findings reveal very good predictive efficacy for the overall conceptual framework with a pseudo R2 value of .687, and reinforced the contributions of factors within the family system. Enrollees were more likely to have discussed the decision with others, used information sources, and had prior experience when compared to non-enrollees. Perceived health status, financial knowledge, attitudes regarding the role of private insurance, risk taking, and coverage features were additional factors related to enrollment decisions. The findings help to inform policymakers about the potential of LTCI as one strategy for financing long-term care.

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere of coastal areas of the Ross Sea, Antarctica: Indications for long-term downward trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Pozo, Karla; Martellini, Tania; Corsolini, Simonetta; Harner, Tom; Estellano, Victor; Kukučka, Petr; Mulder, Marie D; Lammel, Gerhard; Cincinelli, Alessandra

2017-07-01

Passive air samplers were used to evaluate long-term trends and spatial distribution of trace organic compounds in Antarctica. Duplicate PUF disk samplers were deployed at six automatic weather stations in the coastal area of the Ross sea (East Antarctica), between December 2010 and January 2011, during the XXVI Italian Scientific Research Expedition. Among the investigated persistent organic compounds, Hexachlorobenzene was the most abundant, with air concentrations ranging from 0.8 to 50 pg m -3 . In general, the following decreasing concentration order was found for the air samples analyzed: HCB > PeCB > PCBs > DDTs > HCHs. While HCB concentrations were in the same range as those reported in the atmosphere of other Antarctic sampling areas and did not show a decline, HCHs and DDTs levels were lower or similar to those determined one or two decades ago. In general, the very low concentrations reflected the pristine state of the East Antarctica air. Backward trajectories indicated the prevalence of air masses coming from the Antarctic continent. Local contamination and volatilization from ice were suggested as potential sources for the presence of persistent organic pollutants in the atmosphere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of co-morbidity in defining major depression subtypes associated with long-term course and severity.

Science.gov (United States)

Wardenaar, K J; van Loo, H M; Cai, T; Fava, M; Gruber, M J; Li, J; de Jonge, P; Nierenberg, A A; Petukhova, M V; Rose, S; Sampson, N A; Schoevers, R A; Wilcox, M A; Alonso, J; Bromet, E J; Bunting, B; Florescu, S E; Fukao, A; Gureje, O; Hu, C; Huang, Y Q; Karam, A N; Levinson, D; Medina Mora, M E; Posada-Villa, J; Scott, K M; Taib, N I; Viana, M C; Xavier, M; Zarkov, Z; Kessler, R C

2014-11-01

Although variation in the long-term course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing symptom subtype distinctions, recent research suggests that prediction can be improved by using machine learning methods. However, it is not known whether these distinctions can be refined by added information about co-morbid conditions. The current report presents results on this question. Data came from 8261 respondents with lifetime DSM-IV MDD in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Outcomes included four retrospectively reported measures of persistence/severity of course (years in episode; years in chronic episodes; hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Machine learning methods (regression tree analysis; lasso, ridge and elastic net penalized regression) followed by k-means cluster analysis were used to augment previously detected subtypes with information about prior co-morbidity to predict these outcomes. Predicted values were strongly correlated across outcomes. Cluster analysis of predicted values found three clusters with consistently high, intermediate or low values. The high-risk cluster (32.4% of cases) accounted for 56.6-72.9% of high persistence, high chronicity, hospitalization and disability. This high-risk cluster had both higher sensitivity and likelihood ratio positive (LR+; relative proportions of cases in the high-risk cluster versus other clusters having the adverse outcomes) than in a parallel analysis that excluded measures of co-morbidity as predictors. Although the results using the retrospective data reported here suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made with machine learning and clustering across multiple indicators of illness persistence/severity, replication with prospective data is needed to confirm this preliminary conclusion.

Persistent short-term memory defects following sleep deprivation in a drosophila model of Parkinson disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Seugnet, Laurent; Galvin, James E; Suzuki, Yasuko; Gottschalk, Laura; Shaw, Paul J

2009-08-01

Parkinson disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder in the United States. It is associated with motor deficits, sleep disturbances, and cognitive impairment. The pathology associated with PD and the effects of sleep deprivation impinge, in part, upon common molecular pathways suggesting that sleep loss may be particularly deleterious to the degenerating brain. Thus we investigated the long-term consequences of sleep deprivation on shortterm memory using a Drosophila model of Parkinson disease. Transgenic strains of Drosophila melanogaster. Using the GAL4-UAS system, human alpha-synuclein was expressed throughout the nervous system of adult flies. Alpha-synuclein expressing flies (alpha S flies) and the corresponding genetic background controls were sleep deprived for 12 h at age 16 days and allowed to recover undisturbed for at least 3 days. Short-term memory was evaluated using aversive phototaxis suppression. Dopaminergic systems were assessed using mRNA profiling and immunohistochemistry. MEASURMENTS AND RESULTS: When sleep deprived at an intermediate stage of the pathology, alpha S flies showed persistent short-term memory deficits that lasted > or = 3 days. Cognitive deficits were not observed in younger alpha S flies nor in genetic background controls. Long-term impairments were not associated with accelerated loss of dopaminergic neurons. However mRNA expression of the dopamine receptors dDA1 and DAMB were significantly increased in sleep deprived alpha S flies. Blocking D1-like receptors during sleep deprivation prevented persistent shortterm memory deficits. Importantly, feeding flies the polyphenolic compound curcumin blocked long-term learning deficits. These data emphasize the importance of sleep in a degenerating/reorganizing brain and shows that pathological processes induced by sleep deprivation can be dissected at the molecular and cellular level using Drosophila genetics.

Short- and long-term behavioural, physiological and stoichiometric responses to predation risk indicate chronic stress and compensatory mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dievel, Marie; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

2016-06-01

Prey organisms are expected to use different short- and long-term responses to predation risk to avoid excessive costs. Contrasting both types of responses is important to identify chronic stress responses and possible compensatory mechanisms in order to better understand the full impact of predators on prey life history and population dynamics. Using larvae of the damselfly Enallagma cyathigerum, we contrasted the effects of short- and long-term predation risk, with special focus on consequences for body stoichiometry. Under short-term predation risk, larvae reduced growth rate, which was associated with a reduced food intake, increased metabolic rate and reduced glucose content. Under long-term predation risk, larvae showed chronic predator stress as indicated by persistent increases in metabolic rate and reduced food intake. Despite this, larvae were able to compensate for the short-term growth reduction under long-term predation risk by relying on physiological compensatory mechanisms, including reduced energy storage. Only under long-term predation risk did we observe an increase in body C:N ratio, as predicted under the general stress paradigm (GSP). Although this was caused by a predator-induced decrease in N content, there was no associated increase in C content. These stoichiometric changes could not be explained by GSP responses because, under chronic predation risk, there was no decrease in N-rich proteins or increase in C-rich fat and sugars; instead glycogen decreased. Our results highlight the importance of compensatory mechanisms and the value of explicitly integrating physiological mechanisms to obtain insights into the temporal dynamics of non-consumptive effects, including effects on body stoichiometry.

Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mould, R F; Lederman, M; Tai, P; Wong, J K M

2002-01-01

Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

Radiomic features from the peritumoral brain parenchyma on treatment-naive multi-parametric MR imaging predict long versus short-term survival in glioblastoma multiforme: Preliminary findings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prasanna, Prateek; Patel, Jay; Madabhushi, Anant; Tiwari, Pallavi [Case Western Reserve University, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Cleveland, OH (United States); Partovi, Sasan [University Hospitals Case Medical Center, Case Western Reserve School of Medicine, Cleveland, OH (United States)

2017-10-15

Despite 90 % of glioblastoma (GBM) recurrences occurring in the peritumoral brain zone (PBZ), its contribution in patient survival is poorly understood. The current study leverages computerized texture (i.e. radiomic) analysis to evaluate the efficacy of PBZ features from pre-operative MRI in predicting long- (>18 months) versus short-term (<7 months) survival in GBM. Sixty-five patient examinations (29 short-term, 36 long-term) with gadolinium-contrast T{sub 1w}, FLAIR and T{sub 2w} sequences from the Cancer Imaging Archive were employed. An expert manually segmented each study as: enhancing lesion, PBZ and tumour necrosis. 402 radiomic features (capturing co-occurrence, grey-level dependence and directional gradients) were obtained for each region. Evaluation was performed using threefold cross-validation, such that a subset of studies was used to select the most predictive features, and the remaining subset was used to evaluate their efficacy in predicting survival. A subset of ten radiomic 'peritumoral' MRI features, suggestive of intensity heterogeneity and textural patterns, was found to be predictive of survival (p = 1.47 x 10{sup -5}) as compared to features from enhancing tumour, necrotic regions and known clinical factors. Our preliminary analysis suggests that radiomic features from the PBZ on routine pre-operative MRI may be predictive of long- versus short-term survival in GBM. (orig.)

The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

2016-02-01

Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

Presynaptic learning and memory with a persistent firing neuron and a habituating synapse: a model of short term persistent habituation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramanathan, Kiruthika; Ning, Ning; Dhanasekar, Dhiviya; Li, Guoqi; Shi, Luping; Vadakkepat, Prahlad

2012-08-01

Our paper explores the interaction of persistent firing axonal and presynaptic processes in the generation of short term memory for habituation. We first propose a model of a sensory neuron whose axon is able to switch between passive conduction and persistent firing states, thereby triggering short term retention to the stimulus. Then we propose a model of a habituating synapse and explore all nine of the behavioral characteristics of short term habituation in a two neuron circuit. We couple the persistent firing neuron to the habituation synapse and investigate the behavior of short term retention of habituating response. Simulations show that, depending on the amount of synaptic resources, persistent firing either results in continued habituation or maintains the response, both leading to longer recovery times. The effectiveness of the model as an element in a bio-inspired memory system is discussed.

Super long-term creep tests of advanced HP and IP rotor steels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tchizhik, A A [The Polzunov Central Boiler and Turbine Institute, Department the Fatigue Life of Materials for Power Plans Equipment, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

1999-12-31

A creep model has been developed for predicting the long-term creep behavior, in excess of 200,000 h for advanced materials.The new creep theory is based on a continuum microdamage model and is used to calculate the fields of stress and strain and wedge and cavities damage in critical components of steam and gas turbines. The application of this new model increases the reliability and service life of modern turbines. The accuracy of the model to predict long - term creep behavior, creep ductility was verified using the data bank of super long-term creep tests of advanced materials. (orig.) 12 refs.

Super long-term creep tests of advanced HP and IP rotor steels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tchizhik, A.A. [The Polzunov Central Boiler and Turbine Institute, Department the Fatigue Life of Materials for Power Plans Equipment, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

1998-12-31

A creep model has been developed for predicting the long-term creep behavior, in excess of 200,000 h for advanced materials.The new creep theory is based on a continuum microdamage model and is used to calculate the fields of stress and strain and wedge and cavities damage in critical components of steam and gas turbines. The application of this new model increases the reliability and service life of modern turbines. The accuracy of the model to predict long - term creep behavior, creep ductility was verified using the data bank of super long-term creep tests of advanced materials. (orig.) 12 refs.

Long-term use of neonatal helmet-CPAP: a case report.

Science.gov (United States)

Doglioni, N; Micaglio, M; Zanardo, V; Trevisanuto, D

2009-12-01

In a recent short-term physiological study, we demonstrated a new continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) system (neonatal helmet-CPAP) that could be a feasible device for managing preterm infants needing continuous distending pressure with better tolerability than nasal-CPAP. However, its application for a long-term period has never been reported in neonates. Here, we describe the use of neonatal helmet-CPAP in a neonate with persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn. Twenty minutes after neonatal helmet-CPAP placement, the baseline post-ductal tcSaO2 (66%) and alveolar-arterial gradient O2 improved from 66% and 648 mmHg to 100% and 465 mmHg, respectively. The neonatal helmet-CPAP was applied for 48 hours and was well-tolerated by the patient without complications. Long-term use of neonatal helmet-CPAP appears feasible and well-tolerated. Comparative trials are needed.

Long-term persistence, density dependence and effects of climate change on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae)

Science.gov (United States)

Gary D. Grossman; Gary Sundin; Robert E. Ratajczak

2016-01-01

SummaryWe used long-term population data for rosyside dace (Clinostomus funduloides), a numerically dominant member of a stochastically organised fish assemblage, to evaluate the relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent processes to population...

Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

2012-05-22

No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

Indoor air in long term care facilities and spread of infectious diseases

NARCIS (Netherlands)

te Kulve, M.; Loomans, M.G.L.C.; Huisman, E.; Kort, H.S.M.

2014-01-01

Not much is known about the favourable indoor air conditions in long term care facilities (ltcf’s), where older adults suffering from dementia live. Due to the decrease in cognition function, it is hard to evaluate comfort and health in this group. Nevertheless, infectious diseases are a persistent

Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Cho

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The APEC Climate Center (APCC produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1 the Simple Bias Correction (SBC method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2 the Moving Window Regression (MWR method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3 the Climate Index Regression (CIR method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4 the Integrated Time Regression (ITR method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

2018-02-01

In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

Marijuana effects on long-term memory assessment and retrieval.

Science.gov (United States)

Darley, C F; Tinklenberg, J R; Roth, W T; Vernon, S; Kopell, B S

1977-05-09

The ability of 16 college-educated male subjects to recall from long-term memory a series of common facts was tested during intoxication with marijuana extract calibrated to 0.3 mg/kg delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol and during placebo conditions. The subjects' ability to assess their memory capabilities was then determined by measuring how certain they were about the accuracy of their recall performance and by having them predict their performance on a subsequent recognition test involving the same recall items. Marijuana had no effect on recall or recognition performance. These results do not support the view that marijuana provides access to facts in long-term storage which are inaccessible during non-intoxication. During both marijuana and placebo conditions, subjects could accurately predict their recognition memory performance. Hence, marijuana did not alter the subjects' ability to accurately assess what information resides in long-term memory even though they did not have complete access to that information.

Symptoms of delirium predict incident delirium in older long-term care residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Martin G; McCusker, Jane; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric

2013-06-01

Detection of long-term care (LTC) residents at risk of delirium may lead to prevention of this disorder. The primary objective of this study was to determine if the presence of one or more Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) core symptoms of delirium at baseline assessment predicts incident delirium. Secondary objectives were to determine if the number or the type of symptoms predict incident delirium. The study was a secondary analysis of data collected for a prospective study of delirium among older residents of seven LTC facilities in Montreal and Quebec City, Canada. The Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE), CAM, Delirium Index (DI), Hierarchic Dementia Scale, Barthel Index, and Cornell Scale for Depression were completed at baseline. The MMSE, CAM, and DI were repeated weekly for six months. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to determine if baseline symptoms predict incident delirium. Of 273 residents, 40 (14.7%) developed incident delirium. Mean (SD) time to onset of delirium was 10.8 (7.4) weeks. When one or more CAM core symptoms were present at baseline, the Hazard Ratio (HR) for incident delirium was 3.5 (95% CI = 1.4, 8.9). The HRs for number of symptoms present ranged from 2.9 (95% CI = 1.0, 8.3) for one symptom to 3.8 (95% CI = 1.3, 11.0) for three symptoms. The HR for one type of symptom, fluctuation, was 2.2 (95% CI = 1.2, 4.2). The presence of CAM core symptoms at baseline assessment predicts incident delirium in older LTC residents. These findings have potentially important implications for clinical practice and research in LTC settings.

Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Ernest Y.

1992-01-01

Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

Antimicrobial stewardship in long term care facilities: what is effective?

OpenAIRE

Nicolle, Lindsay E

2014-01-01

Intense antimicrobial use in long term care facilities promotes the emergence and persistence of antimicrobial resistant organisms and leads to adverse effects such as C. difficile colitis. Guidelines recommend development of antimicrobial stewardship programs for these facilities to promote optimal antimicrobial use. However, the effectiveness of these programs or the contribution of any specific program component is not known. For this review, publications describing evaluation of antimicro...

Long-Term Neurodevelopmental Outcome after Doxapram for Apnea of Prematurity.

Science.gov (United States)

Ten Hove, Christine H; Vliegenthart, Roseanne J; Te Pas, Arjan B; Brouwer, Emma; Rijken, Monique; van Wassenaer-Leemhuis, Aleid G; van Kaam, Anton H; Onland, Wes

2016-01-01

Doxapram has been advocated as a treatment for persistent apnea of prematurity (AOP). To evaluate the effect of doxapram on long-term neurodevelopmental outcome in preterm infants as its safety still needs to be established. From a retrospective cohort of preterm infants with a gestational age (GA) large, well-designed, placebo-controlled randomized trial. © 2016 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

Modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wallis, I.G.

1978-01-01

The purpose of this working paper is to describe modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations. Ideally, it would be possible to use aquatic population models: (1) to predict changes in the health and well-being of all aquatic populations as a result of changing the composition, amount and location of radionuclide discharges; (2) to compare the effects of steady, fluctuating and accidental releases of radionuclides; and (3) to evaluate the combined impact of the discharge of radionuclides and other wastes, and natural environmental stresses on aquatic populations. At the onset it should be stated that there is no existing model which can achieve this ideal performance. However, modelling skills and techniques are available to develop useful aquatic population models. This paper discusses the considerations involved in developing these models and briefly describes the various types of population models which have been developed to date

International Long-term Data and Analysis Preservation

CERN Document Server

Shiers, J; Rahal, G; South, D; Guelzow, V; CERN. Geneva. IT Department

2011-01-01

The preservation of scientific data for long-term use and re-analysis has been identified as a key requirement in the field of High Energy Physics and other disciplines such as Astronomy and Astrophysics, as well as Life and Earth Sciences. In collaboration with related projects in the US (in particular in close collaboration with the National Science Foundation and Department of Energy) the proposed project would take the work of the Data Preservation in HEP Study group that defines the physics motivation for long-term data preservation and many of the associated issues, and extend this to cover not only the existing use cases but also consider the needs of the LHC experiments at CERN. This work would ensure the persistent availability of existing data and enable it to be shared between organisations and across national boundaries. Now is the time to define standards for data and meta-data formats and address access and authorization issues for on-going experiments (e.g. those at the LHC) – issues that hav...

Harmonic Enhancement in Low Bitrate Audio Coding Using an Efficient Long-Term Predictor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Song Jeongook

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes audio coding using an efficient long-term prediction method to enhance the perceptual quality of audio codecs to speech input signals at low bit-rates. The MPEG-4 AAC-LTP exploited a similar concept, but its improvement was not significant because of small prediction gain due to long prediction lags and aliased components caused by the transformation with a time-domain aliasing cancelation (TDAC technique. The proposed algorithm increases the prediction gain by employing a deharmonizing predictor and a long-term compensation filter. The look-back memory elements are first constructed by applying the de-harmonizing predictor to the input signal, then the prediction residual is encoded and decoded by transform audio coding. Finally, the long-term compensation filter is applied to the updated look-back memory of the decoded prediction residual to obtain synthesized signals. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm has much lower spectral distortion and higher perceptual quality than conventional approaches especially for harmonic signals, such as voiced speech.

Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study).

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Diana M; Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

2015-03-01

Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve's capacity to classify participants likely to lose models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Predicting long-term sickness absence and early retirement pension from self-reported work ability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sell, Lea; Bültmann, Ute; Rugulies, Reiner Ernst

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market.......The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market....

Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

2017-02-01

UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

Hypoxic Prostate/Muscle PO2 Ratio Predicts for Outcome in Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer: Long-Term Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turaka, Aruna; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Horwitz, Eric M.; Greenberg, Richard E.; Movsas, Benjamin

2012-01-01

Purpose: To correlate tumor oxygenation status with long-term biochemical outcome after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Custom-made Eppendorf PO 2 microelectrodes were used to obtain PO 2 measurements from the prostate (P), focused on positive biopsy locations, and normal muscle tissue (M), as a control. A total of 11,516 measurements were obtained in 57 men with localized prostate cancer immediately before prostate brachytherapy was given. The Eppendorf histograms provided the median PO 2 , mean PO 2 , and % 2 ratio on BF. Results: With a median follow-up time of 8 years, 12 men had ASTRO BF and 8 had Phoenix BF. On multivariate analysis, P/M PO 2 ratio 2 ratio 2 ratio) significantly predicts for poor long-term biochemical outcome, suggesting that novel hypoxic strategies should be investigated.

Issues for the long term management of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, T.; Schieber, C.; Lavelle, S.

2006-01-01

High-level radioactive waste are currently managed in interim storage installations, providing an adequate protection of the public and the workers for the short term period. However, the long-term persistence of the radioactivity of the waste gives a new timescale dimension, never experimented by the society for the development of protection systems. In the framework of the European Commission research project 'COWAM-2' (COmmunity WAste Management) dedicated to the governance of radioactive waste management, the issues of 'long term governance' have been addressed by exploring the elements which can contribute to a better integration of the technical and societal time dimensions, taking into account technical, ethical, economic and organizational considerations. The originality of this project is to address the various issues within working groups involving stakeholders from different origins and European countries together with a research team. After a discussion on the time dimensions to be taken into account from the technical and societal perspective, this paper presents, mainly based on the findings of the COWAM-2 project, a brief analysis of the ethical criteria to be considered when future generations are concerned as well as some performance criteria regarding long term governance. Finally, it proposes a discussion on the interest for the radiation protection experts to engage a process with stakeholders concerned by radioactive waste management in order to favour the emergence of a sustainable management responding to the issues at stake and including radiation protection considerations for long term periods. (authors)

Long-term Study of a Quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ferris, Daron; Samakoses, Rudiwilai; Block, Stan L

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: We present a long-term safety, immunogenicity, and effectiveness study of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV4) vaccine. METHODS: Sexually naive boys and girls aged 9 to 15 years (N = 1781) were assigned (2:1) to receive HPV4 vaccine or saline placebo at day 1 and months 2 and 6...... objective was to estimate vaccine effectiveness against HPV6/11/16/18-related persistent infection or disease. RESULTS: For each of the HPV4 vaccine types, vaccination-induced anti-HPV response persisted through month 96. Among 429 subjects who received HPV4 vaccine at a mean age of 12, none developed HPV6....../11/16/18-related disease or persistent infection of ≥12 months' duration. Acquisition of new sexual partners (among those ≥16 years) was ∼1 per year. Subjects receiving HPV4 vaccine at month 30 (mean age 15 years) had a similar baseline rate of seropositivity to ≥1 of the 4 HPV types to those vaccinated at day 1...

Constraints on the affinity term for modeling long-term glass dissolution rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourcier, W.L.; Carroll, S.A.; Phillips, B.L.

1993-11-01

Predictions of long-term glass dissolution rates are highly dependent on the form of the affinity term in the rate expression. Analysis of the quantitative effect of saturation state on glass dissolution rate for CSG glass (a simple analog of SRL-165 glass), shows that a simple (1-Q/K) affinity term does not match experimental results. Our data at 100 degree C show that the data is better fit by an affinity term having the form (1 - (Q/K) 1 /σ) where σ = 10

Distinguishing patterns in the dynamics of long-term medication use by Markov analysis: beyond persistence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lammers Jan-Willem J

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to accurately distinguish gaps of varying length in drug treatment for chronic conditions from discontinuation without resuming therapy, short-term observation does not suffice. Thus, the use of inhalation corticosteroids (ICS in the long-term, during a ten-year period is investigated. To describe medication use as a continuum, taking into account the timeliness and consistency of refilling, a Markov model is proposed. Methods Patients, that filled at least one prescription in 1993, were selected from the PHARMO medical record linkage system (RLS containing >95% prescription dispensings per patient originating from community pharmacy records of 6 medium-sized cities in the Netherlands. The probabilities of continuous use, the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in each year of follow-up, and medication free periods were assessed by Markov analysis. Stratified analysis according to new use was performed. Results The transition probabilities of the refilling of at least one ICS prescription in the subsequent year of follow-up, were assessed for each year of follow-up and for the total study period. The change of transition probabilities in time was evaluated, e.g. the probability of continuing ICS use of starters in the first two years (51% of follow-up increased to more than 70% in the following years. The probabilities of different patterns of medication use were assessed: continuous use (7.7%, cumulative medication gaps (1–8 years 69.1% and discontinuing (23.2% during ten-year follow-up for new users. New users had lower probability of continuous use (7.7% and more variability in ICS refill patterns than previous users (56%. Conclusion In addition to well-established methods in epidemiology to ascertain compliance and persistence, a Markov model could be useful to further specify the variety of possible patterns of medication use within the continuum of adherence. This Markov model describes variation in

Persistence of Long-Term Memory in Vitrified and Revived Caenorhabditis elegans.

Science.gov (United States)

Vita-More, Natasha; Barranco, Daniel

2015-10-01

Can memory be retained after cryopreservation? Our research has attempted to answer this long-standing question by using the nematode worm Caenorhabditis elegans, a well-known model organism for biological research that has generated revolutionary findings but has not been tested for memory retention after cryopreservation. Our study's goal was to test C. elegans' memory recall after vitrification and reviving. Using a method of sensory imprinting in the young C. elegans, we establish that learning acquired through olfactory cues shapes the animal's behavior and the learning is retained at the adult stage after vitrification. Our research method included olfactory imprinting with the chemical benzaldehyde (C6H5CHO) for phase-sense olfactory imprinting at the L1 stage, the fast-cooling SafeSpeed method for vitrification at the L2 stage, reviving, and a chemotaxis assay for testing memory retention of learning at the adult stage. Our results in testing memory retention after cryopreservation show that the mechanisms that regulate the odorant imprinting (a form of long-term memory) in C. elegans have not been modified by the process of vitrification or by slow freezing.

Self-reported musculoskeletal pain predicts long-term increase in general health care use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartvigsen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael; Søgaard, Karen

2014-01-01

reported during the past two weeks from the Danish National Cohort Study were merged with data from the Danish National Health Insurance Registry and the National Patient Registry containing information on consultations in the Danish primary and secondary care sector. Absolute and relative rates for all......Aims: Musculoskeletal pain and disability is a modern epidemic and a major reason for seeking health care. The aim of this study is to determine absolute and relative rates of care seeking over 20 years for adults reporting musculoskeletal complaints. Methods: Interview data on musculoskeletal pain...... to any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS SELF-REPORT OF MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST TWO WEEKS PREDICTS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM INCREASE IN GENERAL USE OF HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN BOTH THE PRIMARY AND THE SECONDARY HEALTH CARE SECTOR:...

Fundamental bound on the persistence and capacity of short-term memory stored as graded persistent activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Koyluoglu, Onur Ozan; Pertzov, Yoni; Manohar, Sanjay; Husain, Masud; Fiete, Ila R

2017-09-07

It is widely believed that persistent neural activity underlies short-term memory. Yet, as we show, the degradation of information stored directly in such networks behaves differently from human short-term memory performance. We build a more general framework where memory is viewed as a problem of passing information through noisy channels whose degradation characteristics resemble those of persistent activity networks. If the brain first encoded the information appropriately before passing the information into such networks, the information can be stored substantially more faithfully. Within this framework, we derive a fundamental lower-bound on recall precision, which declines with storage duration and number of stored items. We show that human performance, though inconsistent with models involving direct (uncoded) storage in persistent activity networks, can be well-fit by the theoretical bound. This finding is consistent with the view that if the brain stores information in patterns of persistent activity, it might use codes that minimize the effects of noise, motivating the search for such codes in the brain.

Multilevel analysis of workplace and individual risk factors for long-term sickness absence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Labriola, Merete; Christensen, Karl B; Lund, Thomas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine if psychosocial and physical work-environment factors predict long-term sickness absence (>8 weeks) at both the individual and the workplace level. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were collected in a prospective study in 52 Danish workplaces....... Psychosocial factors were aggregated as workplace means. We used multilevel logistic regression models with psychosocial factors as predictors of long-term sickness absence over 5 years based on data from a national absence register. RESULTS: Long-term sickness absence was predicted by physical work...

Surviving in Changing Seascapes: Sediment Dynamics as Bottleneck for Long-Term Seagrass Presence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Suykerbuyk, W.; Bouma, T.J.; Govers, L.L.; Giesen, K.; de Jong, D.J.; Herman, P.M.J.; Hendriks, J.; van Katwijk, M.M.

2016-01-01

Changes in the seascape often result in altered hydrodynamics that lead to coinciding changes in sediment dynamics. Little is known on how altered sediment dynamics affect long-term seagrass persistence. We studied the thresholds of sediment dynamics in relation to seagrass presence by comparing

Predicting Long-Term Cognitive Outcome Following Breast Cancer with Pre-Treatment Resting State fMRI and Random Forest Machine Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Kesler, Shelli R; Rao, Arvind; Blayney, Douglas W; Oakley-Girvan, Ingrid A; Karuturi, Meghan; Palesh, Oxana

2017-01-01

We aimed to determine if resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acquired at pre-treatment baseline could accurately predict breast cancer-related cognitive impairment at long-term follow-up. We evaluated 31 patients with breast cancer (age 34-65) prior to any treatment, post-chemotherapy and 1 year later. Cognitive testing scores were normalized based on data obtained from 43 healthy female controls and then used to categorize patients as impaired or not based on longitudinal changes. We measured clustering coefficient, a measure of local connectivity, by applying graph theory to baseline resting state fMRI and entered these metrics along with relevant patient-related and medical variables into random forest classification. Incidence of cognitive impairment at 1 year follow-up was 55% and was predicted by classification algorithms with up to 100% accuracy ( p breast cancer. This information could inform treatment decision making by identifying patients at highest risk for long-term cognitive impairment.

Evaluation of long term creep-fatigue life for type 304 stainless steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Ueno, Fumiyoshi; Aoto, Kazumi; Ichimiya, Masakazu; Wada, Yusaku

1992-01-01

The long term creep-fatigue life of type 304 stainless steel was evaluated by the creep-fatigue life prediction method based on a linear damage fraction rule. The displacement controlled creep-fatigue tests were carried out, and the time to failure of longer than 10000 hours was obtained. The creep damage of long term creep-fatigue was evaluated by taking into account the stress relaxation behavior with elastic follow-up during the hold period. The relationship between life reduction of creep-fatigue and fracture mode was provided by the creep cavity growth. The results of this study are summarized as follows; (1) The long term creep-fatigue data can be reasonably evaluated by the present method. The predicted lives were within a factor of 3 of the observed ones. (2) The present method provides the capability to predict the long term creep-fatigue life at lower temperatures as well as that at the creep dominant temperature. (3) The value of creep damage for the long term creep-fatigue data increased by elastic follow-up. The creep-fatigue damage diagram intercepted between 0.3 and 1 can represent the observed creep-fatigue damages. (4) The cavity growth depends on the hold time. The fracture of long term creep-fatigue is caused by the intergranular cavity growth. The intergranular fracture of creep-fatigue is initiated by the cavity growth and followed by the microcrack propagation along grain boundaries starting from creep cavities. (author)

Generating Dynamic Persistence in the Time Domain

Science.gov (United States)

Guerrero, A.; Smith, L. A.; Smith, L. A.; Kaplan, D. T.

2001-12-01

Many dynamical systems present long-range correlations. Physically, these systems vary from biological to economical, including geological or urban systems. Important geophysical candidates for this type of behaviour include weather (or climate) and earthquake sequences. Persistence is characterised by slowly decaying correlation function; that, in theory, never dies out. The Persistence exponent reflects the degree of memory in the system and much effort has been expended creating and analysing methods that successfully estimate this parameter and model data that exhibits persistence. The most widely used methods for generating long correlated time series are not dynamical systems in the time domain, but instead are derived from a given spectral density. Little attention has been drawn to modelling persistence in the time domain. The time domain approach has the advantage that an observation at certain time can be calculated using previous observations which is particularly suitable when investigating the predictability of a long memory process. We will describe two of these methods in the time domain. One is a traditional approach using fractional ARIMA (autoregressive and moving average) models; the second uses a novel approach to extending a given series using random Fourier basis functions. The statistical quality of the two methods is compared, and they are contrasted with weather data which shows, reportedly, persistence. The suitability of this approach both for estimating predictability and for making predictions is discussed.

Absenteeism screening questionnaire (ASQ): a new tool for predicting long-term absenteeism among workers with low back pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Truchon, Manon; Schmouth, Marie-Ève; Côté, Denis; Fillion, Lise; Rossignol, Michel; Durand, Marie-José

2012-03-01

Over the last decades, psychosocial factors were identified by many studies as significant predictive variables in the development of disability related to common low back disorders, which thus contributed to the development of biopsychosocial prevention interventions. Biopsychosocial interventions were supposed to be more effective than usual interventions in improving different outcomes. Unfortunately, most of these interventions show inconclusive results. The use of screening questionnaires was proposed as a solution to improve their efficacy. The aim of this study was to validate a new screening questionnaire to identify workers at risk of being absent from work for more than 182 cumulative days and who are more susceptible to benefit from prevention interventions. Injured workers receiving income replacement benefits from the Quebec Compensation Board (n = 535) completed a 67-item questionnaire in the sub-acute stage of pain and provided information about work-related events 6 and 12 months later. Reliability and validity of the 67-item questionnaire were determined respectively by test-retest reliability and internal consistency analysis, as well as by construct validity analyses. The Cox regression model and the maximum likelihood method were used to fix a model allowing calculation of a probability of absence of more than 182 days. Criterion validity and discriminative capacity of this model were calculated. Sub-sections from the 67-item questionnaire were moderately to highly correlated 2 weeks later (r = 0.52-0.80) and showed moderate to good internal consistency (0.70-0.94). Among the 67-item questionnaire, six sub-sections and variables (22 items) were predictive of long-term absence from work: fear-avoidance beliefs related to work, return to work expectations, annual family income before-taxes, last level of education attained, work schedule and work concerns. The area under the ROC curve was 73%. The significant predictive variables of long-term

Long-term outcomes of unilateral transtibial amputations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebrahimzadeh, Mohamad H; Hariri, Sanaz

2009-06-01

the long-term outcomes of wartime transtibial amputations have not been well documented. The purpose of this case series is to present the long-term functional, social, and psychological outcomes of modern-day military unilateral transtibial amputees. the Iranian Veterans Administration of the Khorasan province invited their Iranian military amputees from the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) to its medical center for evaluation. The patients filled out a detailed questionnaire and were interviewed and examined by each team member. two hundred (77%) of the 260 invited amputees were willing and able to come back for follow-up. Ninety-six of these patients (48%) were unilateral transtibial amputation. The average follow-up was 17.4 years (range 15-22 years). Land mines were the leading cause of war injury necessitating a transtibial amputation (68%). The most common symptoms about their amputated limbs were phantom sensations (54%), phantom pain (17%), and stump pain (42%). Lower back pain, contralateral (nonamputated limb) knee pain, and ipsilateral (amputated limb) knee pain were reported by 44%, 38%, and 13% of subjects, respectively. Sixty-five percent of patients were employed or had been employed for multiple years after their war injury. All patients were married, and 97% had children. Fifty-four percent of amputees reported psychological problems; 26% were currently utilizing psychological support services. at long-term follow-up, most military transtibial amputees experienced phantom sensation or some type of stump pain. More than half had persistent psychiatric problems, but only about half of these patients were receiving psychological treatment. Although this case series reports the status of these amputees, the next step would be to prospectively follow modern wartime amputees using standardized, validated outcome measures. With the goal of optimizing long-term amputee outcomes, researchers should correlate outcomes with demographics, injury characteristics, and

Predicting Persistence and Withdrawal of Open Admissions Students at Virginia State University.

Science.gov (United States)

Tambe, Joseph T.

1984-01-01

A study of persistence/dropout among open admissions college students found: (1) accurate predictions cannot be made for individual students at the time of matriculation; and (2) it is possible to predict that about 80 percent of future groups will fall in the persist category after two semesters, 51 percent after four semesters. (CMG)

Long-term persistence of systemic and mucosal immune response to HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in preteen/adolescent girls and young women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petäjä, T; Pedersen, Court; Poder, A

2011-01-01

Vaccination against oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types is one key intervention for cervical cancer prevention. This follow-up study assessed the persistence of the systemic and mucosal immune responses together with the safety profile of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine administered...... of transudation or exudation of serum IgG antibodies through the cervical epithelium. The HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine had a clinically acceptable safety profile. In conclusion, this follow-up study shows that the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine administered to preteen/adolescents girls and young women...... induces long-term systemic and mucosal immune response and has a clinically acceptable safety profile up to four years after the first vaccine dose....

Long-term persistence of systemic and mucosal immune response to HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in preteen/adolescent girls and young women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petäjä, T; Pedersen, C; Andersen, Anne Poder

2010-01-01

Vaccination against oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types is one key intervention for cervical cancer prevention. This follow-up study assessed the persistence of the systemic and mucosal immune responses together with the safety profile of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine administered...... of transudation or exudation of serum IgG antibodies through the cervical epithelium. The HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine had a clinically acceptable safety profile. In conclusion, this follow-up study shows that the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine administered to preteen/adolescents girls and young women...... induces long-term systemic and mucosal immune response and has a clinically acceptable safety profile up to four years after the first vaccine dose....

Results of repeated transsphenoidal surgery in Cushing's disease. Long-term follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Valderrábano, Pablo; Aller, Javier; García-Valdecasas, Leopoldo; García-Uría, José; Martín, Laura; Palacios, Nuria; Estrada, Javier

2014-04-01

Transsphenoidal surgery (TSS) is the treatment of choice for Cushing's disease (CD). However, the best treatment option when hypercortisolism persists or recurs remains unknown. The aim of this study was to analyze the short and long-term outcome of repeat TSS in this situation and to search for response predictors. Data from 26 patients with persistent (n=11) or recurrent (n=15) hypercortisolism who underwent repeat surgery by a single neurosurgeon between 1982 and 2009 were retrospectively analyzed. Remission was defined as normalization of urinary free cortisol (UFC) levels, and recurrence as presence of elevated UFC levels after having achieved remission. The following potential outcome predictors were analyzed: adrenal status (persistence or recurrence) after initial TSS, tumor identification in imaging tests, degree of hypercortisolism before repeat TSS, same/different surgeon in both TSS, and time to repeat surgery. Immediate postoperative remission was achieved in 12 patients (46.2%). Five of the 10 patients with available follow-up data relapsed after surgery (median time to recurrence, 13 months). New hormone deficiencies were seen in seven patients (37%), and two patients had cerebrospinal fluid leakage. No other major complications occurred. None of the preoperative factors analyzed was predictive of surgical outcome. When compared to initial surgery, repeat TSS for CD is associated to a lower remission rate and a higher risk of recurrence and complications. Further studies are needed to define outcome predictors. Copyright © 2013 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Thyroiditis de Quervain. Are there predictive factors for long-term hormone-replacement?

Science.gov (United States)

Schenke, S; Klett, R; Braun, S; Zimny, M

2013-01-01

Subacute thyroiditis is a usually self-limiting disease of the thyroid. However, approximately 0.5-15% of the patients require permanent thyroxine substitution. Aim was to determine predictive factors for the necessity of long-term hormone-replacement (LTH). We retrospectively reviewed the records of 72 patients with subacute thyroiditis. Morphological and serological parameters as well as type of therapy were tested as predictive factors of consecutive hypothyroidism. Mean age was 49 ± 11 years, f/m-ratio was 4.5 : 1. Thyroid pain and signs of hyperthyroidism were leading symptoms. Initial subclinical or overt hyperthyroidism was found in 20% and 37%, respectively. Within six months after onset 15% and 1.3% of the patients developed subclinical or overt hypothyroidism, respectively. At latest follow-up 26% were classified as liable to LTH. At onset the thyroid was enlarged in 64%, and at latest follow-up in 8.3%, with a significant reduction of the thyroid volume after three months. At the endpoint the thyroid volume was less in patients in the LTH group compared with the non-LTH group (41.7% vs. 57.2% of sex-adjusted upper norm, p = 0.041). Characteristic ultrasonographic features occurred in 74% of the patients in both lobes. Serological and morphological parameters as well as type of therapy were not related with the need of LTH. In this study the proportion of patients who received LTH was 26%. At the endpoint these patients had a lower thyroid volume compared with euthyroid patients. No predictive factors for LTH were found.

Long-term survival and function after suspected gram-negative sepsis.

Science.gov (United States)

Perl, T M; Dvorak, L; Hwang, T; Wenzel, R P

1995-07-26

To determine the long-term (> 3 months) survival of septic patients, to develop mathematical models that predict patients likely to survive long-term, and to measure the health and functional status of surviving patients. A large tertiary care university hospital and an associated Veterans Affairs Medical Center. From December 1986 to December 1990, a total of 103 patients with suspected gram-negative sepsis entered a double-blind, placebo-controlled efficacy trial of monoclonal antiendotoxin antibody. Of these, we followed up 100 patients for 7667 patient-months. Beginning in May 1992, we reviewed hospital records and contacted all known survivors. We measured the health status of all surviving patients. The determinants of long-term survival (up to 6 years) were identified through two Cox proportional hazard regression models: one that included patient characteristics identified at the time of sepsis (bedside model) and another that included bedside, infection-related, and treatment characteristics (overall model). Of the 60 patients in the cohort who died at a median interval of 30.5 days after sepsis, 32 died within the first month of the septic episode, seven died within 3 months, and four more died within 6 months. In the bedside multivariate model constructed to predict long-term survival, large hazard ratios (HRs) were associated with severity of underlying illness as classified by McCabe and Jackson criteria (for rapidly fatal disease, HR = 30.4, P respiratory distress syndrome (HR = 2.3; P = .02) predicted patients most likely to die. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was not a significant predictor of outcome when either model included the simpler McCabe and Jackson classification of underlying disease severity. We compared the health status scores with norms for the general population and found that patients with resolved sepsis reported more physical dysfunction (P bedridden), suggesting that the patients' physical function

Differences in the verbal fluency, working memory and executive functions in alcoholics: Short-term vs. long-term abstainers.

Science.gov (United States)

Nowakowska-Domagała, Katarzyna; Jabłkowska-Górecka, Karolina; Mokros, Łukasz; Koprowicz, Jacek; Pietras, Tadeusz

2017-03-01

The aim of the study was to assess differences in verbal fluency, working memory and executive functions in two subgroups of alcohol-dependent patients, those undergoing short-term abstinence (STA) and those undergoing long-term abstinence (LTA), and to compare the level of cognitive functions in patients after long-term abstinence with healthy subjects. The study group consisted of 106 alcohol-dependent patients (53 immediately after drinking at least 3 days and 53 after at least one-year abstinence). The control group comprised 53 subjects, whose age, sex and education levels matched those of the patients in the experimental group. The dependence intensity was assessed using SADD and MAST scales. The neuropsychological assessment was based on the FAS Test, Stroop Test and TMT A&B Test. The results obtained for alcohol-dependent patients revealed significant disturbances of cognitive functions. Such results indicate the presence of severe frontal cerebral cortex dysfunctions. Frontal cortex dysfunctions affecting the verbal fluency and working memory subsystems and the executive functions also persisted during long-term abstinence periods. No significant correlations between the duration of dependence, quantity of alcohol consumed and efficiency of the working memory and executive functions were observed in alcohol-dependent subjects after short-term or long-term abstinence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaebeom Lee

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jaebeom; Lee, Kyoung-Chan; Lee, Young-Joo

2018-05-09

Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

Long-term outcome of biopsy-proven, frequently relapsing minimal-change nephrotic syndrome in children.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kyrieleis, H.A.; Lowik, M.M.; Pronk, I.; Cruysberg, J.R.M.; Kremer, J.A.M.; Oyen, W.J.G.; Heuvel, L.P.W.J. van den; Wetzels, J.F.M.; Levtchenko, E.N.

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Frequently relapsing and steroid-dependent minimal-change nephrotic syndrome (MCNS) that originates in childhood can persist after puberty in >20% of patients. These patients require immunosuppressive treatment during several decades of their life. We examined long-term

Long-term injury in B-lymphocyte precursor cells in repeatedly-irradiated mice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hendry, J.H.; Clarke, D.; Testa, N.; Kimber, J.

1984-01-01

Mice irradiated with 4 doses of 4,5 Gy X-rays at 3-week intervals, demonstrated long-term proliferative defects in B lymphocytes. There was a reduced mitogenic response to bacterial polysaccharide (30%), a lower concentration (35%) of B-lymphocyte colony-forming cells (BL-CFC) in agar with an increased proportion of clusters (x2), and a reduced concentration (30%) of plaque-forming cells. Grafts of thymocytes were able to restore the levels of BL-CFC in the short term, but in the long term large grafts of femoral marrow cells were much better in restoring the numbers of BL-CFC. The reduced mitogenesis (25%) of splenocytes by concanavalin A and the diminished number of plaque-forming cells, may suggest persistent injury in T-B cell cooperation

The prediction of the long-term behaviour of glasses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Courtois, Ch.; Regent, A.; Plas, F.

1997-01-01

Several experts draw a conclusion about the scientific content of this week-long seminar. All agree to highlight the variety and quality of the work done. It appears that there is a consensus about the phenomenology of the long-term behaviour of glasses. All the parameters that are likely to intervene in alteration processes have been identified, but some particular points require further studies: - the impact of alpha, beta and gamma irradiation, - the alteration of glass in no-saturated water, - the coupling effect with the materials surrounding glass (metal canister, over-container...), - the optimization of glass composition to deal with high burn-up spent fuels, - the relation between the formation free energy of glasses and their alteration kinetics, - the release of radionuclides trapped in glass, and - the use of mutual analogue. (A.C.)

Institutionalization and Organizational Long-term Success

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Denise L. Fleck

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Institutionalization processes have an ambivalent effect on organizational long-term success. Even though they foster organizational stability and permanence, they also bring about rigidity and resistance to change. As a result, successful organizations are likely to lose their competitive advantage over time. The paper addresses this issue through the investigation of the institutionalization processes of two long-lived companies: General Electric, a firm that has been a long-term success and its rival, Westinghouse, which was broken up after eleven decades of existence. The longitudinal, multilevel analysis of firms and industry has identified two different modes of organizational institutionalization. The reactive mode gives rise to rigidity and change resistance, much like institutional theory predicts; the proactive mode, on the other hand, neutralizes those negative effects of institutionalization processes. In the reactive mode, structure predominates. In the proactive mode, agency plays a major role in organizational institutionalization, and in managing the organization’s relations with the environment, clearly contributing to environmental institutionalization.

Subintimal angioplasty: predictors of long-term success.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Keeling, Aoife N

2009-08-01

To determine the clinical outcomes and success rates after percutaneous subintimal angioplasty (SIA) in patients with lower-limb occlusive lesions causing intermittent claudication (IC) or critical limb ischemia (CLI) at midterm to long-term follow-up. The secondary aim was to elicit factors predictive of a successful outcome.

Long-term associations between serum lipids and panretinal photocoagulation in type 1 diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Jesper Skovlund; Mejnert Jørgensen, Trine; Green, Anders

2013-01-01

To examine the predictive value of serum lipids on the need for panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) treatment in a long-term follow-up of a cohort of Danish type 1 diabetic patients.......To examine the predictive value of serum lipids on the need for panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) treatment in a long-term follow-up of a cohort of Danish type 1 diabetic patients....

Long-term deflection and flexural behavior of reinforced concrete beams with recycled aggregate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Won-Chang; Yun, Hyun-Do

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Long-term deformation of recycled aggregate concrete beams was examined. • Three beams were monitored for over 380 days. • Influence of recycled aggregate on the long-term performance. • Comparison of that between normal and recycled aggregate concrete beams. - Abstract: This paper presents experimental results on the long-term deformations of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) beams for over 1 year (380 days) and flexural behavior of RAC beams after exposure to sustained loading. Three reinforced concrete (RC) beam specimens were fabricated with replacement percentage of aggregate (100% natural aggregate, 100% recycled coarse aggregate, and 50% recycled fine aggregate) and subjected to sustained loading that is 50% of the nominal flexural capacity. During the sustained loading period (380 days), the long-term deflection due to creep and shrinkage was recorded and compared with predicted behavior that was determined based on current specifications (ACI 318 Code). After measuring the long-term deflection for 380 days, four-point bending tests were conducted to investigate the flexural behavior of RC beams after exposure to sustained loading and determine any reduction in flexural capacity. A modified equation to predict the long-term deflection values for RC beams with recycled aggregate is proposed, and the experimental results are compared with the predictions calculated using the ACI 318 Code provisions

Using individual-condition measures to predict the long-term importance of habitat extent for population persistence.

Science.gov (United States)

Cosgrove, Anita J; McWhorter, Todd J; Maron, Martine

2017-10-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation are causing widespread population declines, but identifying how and when to intervene remains challenging. Predicting where extirpations are likely to occur and implementing management actions before losses result may be more cost-effective than trying to reestablish lost populations. Early indicators of pressure on populations could be used to make such predictions. Previous work conducted in 2009 and 2010 identified that the presence of Eastern Yellow Robins (Eopsaltria australis) in 42 sites in a fragmented region of eastern Australia was unrelated to woodland extent within 500 m of a site, but the robins' heterophil:lymphocyte (H:L) ratios (an indicator of chronic stress) were elevated at sites with low levels of surrounding woodland. We resurveyed these 42 sites in 2013 and 2014 for robin presence to determine whether the H:L ratios obtained in 2009 and 2010 predicted the locations of extirpations and whether the previous pattern in H:L ratios was an early sign that woodland extent would become an important predictor of occupancy. We also surveyed for robins at 43 additional sites to determine whether current occupancy could be better predicted by landscape context at a larger scale, relevant to dispersal movements. At the original 42 sites, H:L ratios and extirpations were not related, although only 4 extirpations were observed. Woodland extent within 500 m had become a strong predictor of occupancy. Taken together, these results provide mixed evidence as to whether patterns of individual condition can reveal habitat relationships that become evident as local shifts in occupancy occur but that are not revealed by a single snapshot of species distribution. Across all 85 sites, woodland extent at scales relevant to dispersal (5 km) was not related to occurrence. We recommend that conservation actions focus on regenerating areas of habitat large enough to support robin territories rather than increasing connectivity within the

Issues for the long term management of radioactive waste

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schneider, T.; Schieber, C. [CEPN, 92 - Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Lavelle, S. [ICAM, 59 - Lille (France)

2006-07-01

High-level radioactive waste are currently managed in interim storage installations, providing an adequate protection of the public and the workers for the short term period. However, the long-term persistence of the radioactivity of the waste gives a new timescale dimension, never experimented by the society for the development of protection systems. In the framework of the European Commission research project 'COWAM-2' (COmmunity WAste Management) dedicated to the governance of radioactive waste management, the issues of 'long term governance' have been addressed by exploring the elements which can contribute to a better integration of the technical and societal time dimensions, taking into account technical, ethical, economic and organizational considerations. The originality of this project is to address the various issues within working groups involving stakeholders from different origins and European countries together with a research team. After a discussion on the time dimensions to be taken into account from the technical and societal perspective, this paper presents, mainly based on the findings of the COWAM-2 project, a brief analysis of the ethical criteria to be considered when future generations are concerned as well as some performance criteria regarding long term governance. Finally, it proposes a discussion on the interest for the radiation protection experts to engage a process with stakeholders concerned by radioactive waste management in order to favour the emergence of a sustainable management responding to the issues at stake and including radiation protection considerations for long term periods. (authors)

Long-term energy futures: the critical role of technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grubler, A.

1999-01-01

The paper briefly reviews the results of a 5-year study conducted by IIASA jointly with the World Energy Council (WEC) on long term-energy perspectives. After summarizing the study's main findings, the paper addresses the crucial role of technological change in the evolution of long-term energy futures and in responding to key long-term uncertainties in the domains of energy demand growth, economics, as well as environmental protection. Based on most recent empirical and methodological findings, long-term dynamics of technological change portray a number of distinct features that need to be taken account of in technology and energy policy. First, success of innovation efforts and ultimate outcomes of technological are uncertain. Second, new, improved technologies are not a free good, but require continued dedicated efforts. Third, technological knowledge (as resulting from R and D and accumulation of experience, i.e. technological learning) exhibits characteristics of (uncertain) increasing returns. Forth, due to innovation - diffusion lags, technological interdependence, and infrastructure needs (network externalities), rates of change in large-scale energy systems are necessarily slow. This implies acting sooner rather than later as a contigency policy to respond to long-term social, economic and environmental uncertainties, most notably possible climate change. Rather than picking technological 'winners' the results of the IIASA-WEC scenario studies are seen most appropriate to guide technology and R and D portfolio analysis. Nonetheless, robust persistent patterns of technological change invariably occur across all scenarios. Examples of primising groups of technologies are given. The crucial importance of meeting long-energy demand in developing countries, assuring large-scale infrastructure investments, maintaining a strong and diversified R AND D protfolio, as well as to dvise new institutional mechnisms for technology development and diffusion for instance

Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korinko M.D.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

Long-term psychosocial consequences of surgical congenital malformations.

Science.gov (United States)

Diseth, Trond H; Emblem, Ragnhild

2017-10-01

Surgical congenital malformations often represent years of treatment, large number of hospital stays, treatment procedures, and long-term functional sequels affecting patients' psychosocial functioning. Both functional defects and psychosocial difficulties that occur commonly in childhood may pass through adolescence on to adulthood. This overview presents reports published over the past 3 decades to elucidate the long-term psychosocial consequences of surgical congenital malformations. Literature searches conducted on PubMed database revealed that less than 1% of all the records of surgical congenital malformations described long-term psychosocial consequences, but with diverse findings. This inconsistency may be due to methodological differences or deficiencies; especially in study design, patient sampling, and methods. Most of the studies revealed that the functional deficits may have great impact on patients' mental health, psychosocial functioning, and QoL; both short- and long-term negative consequences. Factors other than functional problems, e.g., repeated anesthesia, multiple hospitalization, traumatic treatment procedures, and parental dysfunctioning, may also predict long-term mental health and psychosocial functioning. Through multidisciplinary approach, pediatric surgeons should also be aware of deficits in emotional and psychosocial functioning. To achieve overall optimal psychosocial functioning, the challenge is to find a compromise between physically optimal treatment procedures and procedures that are not psychologically detrimental. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Long-term response to recombinant human growth hormone treatment: a new predictive mathematical method.

Science.gov (United States)

Migliaretti, G; Ditaranto, S; Guiot, C; Vannelli, S; Matarazzo, P; Cappello, N; Stura, I; Cavallo, F

2018-07-01

Recombinant GH has been offered to GH-deficient (GHD) subjects for more than 30 years, in order to improve height and growth velocity in children and to enhance metabolic effects in adults. The aim of our work is to describe the long-term effect of rhGH treatment in GHD pediatric patients, suggesting a growth prediction model. A homogeneous database is defined for diagnosis and treatment modalities, based on GHD patients afferent to Hospital Regina Margherita in Turin (Italy). In this study, 232 GHD patients are selected (204 idiopathic GHD and 28 organic GHD). Each measure is shown in terms of mean with relative standard deviations (SD) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). To estimate the final height of each patient on the basis of few measures, a mathematical growth prediction model [based on Gompertzian function and a mixed method based on the radial basis functions (RBFs) and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) models] was performed. The results seem to highlight the benefits of an early start of treatment, further confirming what is suggested by the literature. Generally, the RBF-PSO method shows a good reliability in the prediction of the final height. Indeed, RMSE is always lower than 4, i.e., in average the forecast will differ at most of 4 cm to the real value. In conclusion, the large and accurate database of Italian GHD patients allowed us to assess the rhGH treatment efficacy and compare the results with those obtained in other Countries. Moreover, we proposed and validated a new mathematical model forecasting the expected final height after therapy which was validated on our cohort.

The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

Science.gov (United States)

Mroz, Thomas A.; Savage, Timothy H.

2006-01-01

Using NLSY data, we examine the long-term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes. Involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run. A theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational "catch-up" response. Using semiparametric techniques to control for the…

Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care

Science.gov (United States)

Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

2015-01-01

[Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care. PMID:26834327

Long-term persistence of oral human papillomavirus type 16: the HPV Infection in Men (HIM) study.

Science.gov (United States)

Pierce Campbell, Christine M; Kreimer, Aimée R; Lin, Hui-Yi; Fulp, William; O'Keefe, Michael T; Ingles, Donna J; Abrahamsen, Martha; Villa, Luisa L; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Giuliano, Anna R

2015-03-01

Persistent infection with oral HPV16 is believed to drive the development of most oropharyngeal cancers. However, patterns of oral HPV16 persistence remain understudied, particularly among HIV-negative individuals. Oral HPV16 persistence was evaluated among 1,626 participants of the HPV Infection in Men (HIM) Study. Twenty-three oral HPV16-positive men who provided an oral gargle sample on ≥2 study visits were included in the analysis. Archived oral samples from all follow-up visits were tested for HPV16 using Linear Array and INNO-LiPA detection methods. Persistence was evaluated using consecutive HPV16-positive visits held approximately 6 months apart and using the Kaplan-Meier method. Oral HPV16-positive men were aged 18 to 64 years [median, 36 years; interquartile range (IQR), 25-42] and were followed for a median of 44.4 months (IQR, 29.9-49.5). Of 13 incident infections, 4 (30.8%) persisted ≥12 months, 1 (10.0%) persisted ≥24 months, and none persisted ≥36 months [median infection duration, 7.3 months; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.4-NA)]. Of 10 prevalent infections, 9 (90.0%) persisted ≥12 months, 8 (80.0%) persisted ≥24 months, 4 (57.1%) persisted ≥36 months, and 2 (40.0%) persisted ≥48 months (median infection duration, NA). Twelve-month persistence of incident infections increased significantly with age (Ptrend = 0.028). Prevalent oral HPV16 infections in men persisted longer than newly acquired infections, and persistence appeared to increase with age. These findings may explain the high prevalence of oral HPV observed at older ages. Understanding oral HPV16 persistence will aid in the identification of men at high-risk of developing HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Prediction of long-term absence due to sickness in employees: development and validation of a multifactorial risk score in two cohort studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Airaksinen, Jaakko; Jokela, Markus; Virtanen, Marianna; Oksanen, Tuula; Koskenvuo, Markku; Pentti, Jaana; Vahtera, Jussi; Kivimäki, Mika

2018-01-24

Objectives This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for long-term sickness absence. Methods Survey responses on work- and lifestyle-related questions from 65 775 public-sector employees were linked to sickness absence records to develop a prediction score for medically-certified sickness absence lasting >9 days and ≥90 days. The score was externally validated using data from an independent population-based cohort of 13 527 employees. For both sickness absence outcomes, a full model including 46 candidate predictors was reduced to a parsimonious model using least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. Predictive performance of the model was evaluated using C-index and calibration plots. Results Variance explained in ≥90-day sickness absence by the full model was 12.5%. In the parsimonious model, the predictors included self-rated health (linear and quadratic term), depression, sex, age (linear and quadratic), socioeconomic position, previous sickness absences, number of chronic diseases, smoking, shift work, working night shift, and quadratic terms for body mass index and Jenkins sleep scale. The discriminative ability of the score was good (C-index 0.74 in internal and 0.73 in external validation). Calibration plots confirmed high correspondence between the predicted and observed risk. In >9-day sickness absence, the full model explained 15.2% of the variance explained, but the C-index of the parsimonious model was poor (<0.65). Conclusions Individuals' risk of a long-term sickness absence that lasts ≥90 days can be estimated using a brief risk score. The predictive performance of this score is comparable to those for established multifactorial risk algorithms for cardiovascular disease, such as the Framingham risk score.

Long-term evolution and gravitational wave radiation of neutron stars with differential rotation induced by r-modes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Yunwei; Cao Xiaofeng; Zheng Xiaoping

2009-01-01

In a second-order r-mode theory, Sa and Tome found that the r-mode oscillation in neutron stars (NSs) could induce stellar differential rotation, which naturally leads to a saturated state of the oscillation. Based on a consideration of the coupling of the r-modes and the stellar spin and thermal evolution, we carefully investigate the influences of the differential rotation on the long-term evolution of isolated NSs and NSs in low-mass X-ray binaries, where the viscous damping of the r-modes and its resultant effects are taken into account. The numerical results show that, for both kinds of NSs, the differential rotation can significantly prolong the duration of the r-modes. As a result, the stars can keep nearly a constant temperature and constant angular velocity for over a thousand years. Moreover, the persistent radiation of a quasi-monochromatic gravitational wave would also be predicted due to the long-term steady r-mode oscillation and stellar rotation. This increases the detectability of gravitational waves from both young isolated and old accreting NSs. (research papers)

Medication persistence with long-term, specific grass pollen immunotherapy measured by prescription renewal rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Sieber, J; De Geest, S; Shah-Hosseini, K; Mösges, R

2011-04-01

We assessed medication persistence using prescription renewal rates for grass pollen specific immunotherapy (SIT) in a representative population of patients in Germany to evaluate whether the perception of superior persistence for the subcutaneous route compared to the sublingual route could be confirmed in clinical practice. Individual prescriptions for allergen immunotherapy were extracted from a national prescription database (INSIGHT Health) and followed over 3 years on a per-patient basis. However, patients' medical history and treatment schedules were not available for analysis. Products were identified by the national drug code (PZN number) and grouped to either subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) with natural extract injections, SCIT with modified allergens (allergoids) or sublingual immunotherapy (SLIT) with natural pollen extract solutions. Persistence was defined as at least one prescription of the individual drug in the respective years. A total of 1409 patients started SIT in 2005 (112, 695, and 602 for natural extract SLIT, natural extract SCIT, and allergoid SCIT, respectively). In 2006, 71%, 55%, and 59% of those patients had at least one renewal prescription of natural extract SLIT, natural extract SCIT, and allergoid SCIT, respectively, as well as 51%, 34%, and 39% in 2007. In both years, persistence with natural extract SLIT was significantly higher than with natural extract SCIT (p = 0.0015 for 2006, p = 0.0003 for 2007) and allergoid SCIT (p = 0.0152 for 2006, p = 0.0111 for 2007). There were no significant differences between the two SCIT groups. Medication persistence with grass pollen SIT in a representative sample of patients in Germany was similar to published medication persistence in asthma and COPD patients. The sublingual application route shows significantly better persistency than the subcutaneous route with native allergens or allergoids.

Serial Diffusion Tensor Imaging In Vivo Predicts Long-Term Functional Recovery and Histopathology in Rats following Different Severities of Spinal Cord Injury

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Samir P.; Smith, Taylor D.; VanRooyen, Jenna L.; Powell, David; Cox, David H.; Sullivan, Patrick G.

2016-01-01

Abstract The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in vivo to quantify temporally spinal cord injury (SCI) pathology in adult female Sprague-Dawley rats that were scanned prior to a moderate or severe upper lumbar contusion SCI. Injured rats were behaviorally tested for hind limb locomotion (Basso, Beattie, Bresnahan [BBB] scores) weekly for 4 weeks and scanned immediately after each session, ending with terminal gait analyses prior to euthanasia. As a measure of tissue integrity, fractional anisotropy (FA) values were significantly lower throughout the spinal cord in both injury cohorts at all time-points examined versus pre-injury. Moreover, FA values were significantly lower following severe versus moderate SCI at all time-points, and FA values at the injury epicenters at all time-points were significantly correlated with both spared white and gray matter volumes, as well as lesion volumes. Critically, quantified FA values at subacute (24 h) and all subsequent time-points were highly predictive of terminal behavior, reflected in significant correlations with both weekly BBB scores and terminal gait parameters. Critically, the finding that clinically relevant subacute (24 h) FA values accurately predict long-term functional recovery may obviate long-term studies to assess the efficacy of therapeutics tested experimentally or clinically. In summary, this study demonstrates a reproducible serial MRI procedure to predict the long-term impact of contusion SCI on both behavior and histopathology using subacute DTI metrics obtained in vivo to accurately predict multiple terminal outcome measures, which can be particularly valuable when comparing experimental interventions. PMID:26650623

Long-Term Memory Biases Auditory Spatial Attention

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmermann, Jacqueline F.; Moscovitch, Morris; Alain, Claude

2017-01-01

Long-term memory (LTM) has been shown to bias attention to a previously learned visual target location. Here, we examined whether memory-predicted spatial location can facilitate the detection of a faint pure tone target embedded in real world audio clips (e.g., soundtrack of a restaurant). During an initial familiarization task, participants…

Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeon Jin Park

2010-04-01

Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichikawa, Yasuaki

2002-03-01

Micro-structure of rock plays a essential role for their long-term behavior. For elucidating long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope (LSM) observation of joint surfaces of granite and Fourier analysis, 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, 3) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by LSM under uniaxial compression, and 4) a viscoelastic homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. Rock image processing and analysis become a fundamental procedure to determine rock surface discontinuities. But the complexity of rock surface discontinuities seems beyond the manual image processing method. In Chapter 2 a Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope that can acquire three-dimensional images is introduced to observe the rock roughness of a discontinuity. Then, scanning three-dimensional images are changed its data form in order to adapt various image analysis programs, and granitic rock roughness of discontinuities are displayed by graphic images. For example, these datas are analyzed by Discrete Fourier Transformation (DFT) program and Inverse Discrete Fourier Transformation (IDFT) program. Microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock. In Chapter 3 a progressive development of cracking in granite is revealed by using stereoscopic microscope under triaxial compression condition and by using LSM under uniaxial compression condition. With a viscoelastic theory applied in homogenization method, we can calculate macro behavior of medium influenced by its micro structure by analyse the long-term time-dependent behavior of granite under the same condition to the relaxation experiment. (author)

Relative phase asynchrony and long-range correlation of long-term solar magnetic activity

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Linhua

2017-07-01

Statistical signal processing is one of the most important tasks in a large amount of areas of scientific studies, such as astrophysics, geophysics, and space physics. Phase recurrence analysis and long-range persistence are the two dynamical structures of the underlying processes for the given natural phenomenon. Linear and nonlinear time series analysis approaches (cross-correlation analysis, cross-recurrence plot, wavelet coherent transform, and Hurst analysis) are combined to investigate the relative phase interconnection and long-range correlation between solar activity and geomagnetic activity for the time interval from 1932 January to 2017 January. The following prominent results are found: (1) geomagnetic activity lags behind sunspot numbers with a phase shift of 21 months, and they have a high level of asynchronous behavior; (2) their relative phase interconnections are in phase for the periodic scales during 8-16 years, but have a mixing behavior for the periodic belts below 8 years; (3) both sunspot numbers and geomagnetic activity can not be regarded as a stochastic phenomenon because their dynamical behaviors display a long-term correlation and a fractal nature. We believe that the presented conclusions could provide further information on understanding the dynamical coupling of solar dynamo process with geomagnetic activity variation, and the crucial role of solar and geomagnetic activity in the long-term climate change.

Long-term prevention of diabetic nephropathy: an audit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schjoedt, K.J.; Hansen, H.P.; Tarnow, L.

2008-01-01

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In type 1 diabetic patients with microalbuminuria not receiving antihypertensive treatment, an increase in urinary AER (UAER) of 6-14%/year and a risk of developing diabetic nephropathy (DN) of 3-30%/year have been reported. We audited the long-term effect of blocking the renin......-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) with an ACE inhibitor (ACEI) or angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) in microalbuminuric type 1 diabetic patients on progression of microalbuminuria and development of DN. METHODS: All patients with type 1 diabetes and persistent microalbuminuria (30-300 mg/24 h) were identified (n=227...

Immediate and persistent transcriptional correlates of long-term sensitization training at different CNS loci in Aplysia californica.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samantha Herdegen

Full Text Available Repeated noxious stimulation produces long-term sensitization of defensive withdrawal reflexes in Aplysia californica, a form of long-term memory that requires changes in both transcription and translation. Previous work has identified 10 transcripts which are rapidly up-regulated after long-term sensitization training in the pleural ganglia. Here we use quantitative PCR to begin examining how these transcriptional changes are expressed in different CNS loci related to defensive withdrawal reflexes at 1 and 24 hours after long-term sensitization training. Specifically, we sample from a the sensory wedge of the pleural ganglia, which exclusively contains the VC nociceptor cell bodies that help mediate input to defensive withdrawal circuits, b the remaining pleural ganglia, which contain withdrawal interneurons, and c the pedal ganglia, which contain many motor neurons. Results from the VC cluster show different temporal patterns of regulation: 1 rapid but transient up-regulation of Aplysia homologs of C/EBP, C/EBPγ, and CREB1, 2 delayed but sustained up-regulation of BiP, Tolloid/BMP-1, and sensorin, 3 rapid and sustained up-regulation of Egr, GlyT2, VPS36, and an uncharacterized protein (LOC101862095, and 4 an unexpected lack of regulation of Aplysia homologs of calmodulin (CaM and reductase-related protein (RRP. Changes in the remaining pleural ganglia mirror those found in the VC cluster at 1 hour but with an attenuated level of regulation. Because these samples had almost no expression of the VC-specific transcript sensorin, our data suggests that sensitization training likely induces transcriptional changes in either defensive withdrawal interneurons or neurons unrelated to defensive withdrawal. In the pedal ganglia, we observed only a rapid but transient increase in Egr expression, indicating that long-term sensitization training is likely to induce transcriptional changes in motor neurons but raising the possibility of different

Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mansson, K.N.T.; Frick, A.; Boraxbekk, C.J.; Marquand, A.F.; Williams, S.C.; Carlbring, P.; Andersson, G.; Furmark, T.

2015-01-01

Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge.

Long-term adherence to a local guideline on postoperative body temperature measurement: mixed methods analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Storm-Versloot, Marja N.; Knops, Anouk M.; Ubbink, Dirk T.; Goossens, Astrid; Legemate, Dink A.; Vermeulen, Hester

2012-01-01

Aim To find out whether a successful multifaceted implementation approach of a local evidence-based guideline on postoperative body temperature measurements (BTM) was persistent over time, and which factors influenced long-term adherence. Methods Mixed methods analysis. Patient records were

Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

Science.gov (United States)

Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

2014-05-01

Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88

Survival and cardiovascular events after coarctation-repair in long-term follow-up (COAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Bambul Heck, P; Pabst von Ohain, J; Kaemmerer, H; Ewert, P; Hager, A

2017-02-01

Long-term sequelae and events after coarctation repair are well described. However, the predictive value of variables from clinical follow-up investigation for late events and survival has rarely been investigated. All patients who participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for reevaluation of survival, current clinical status and major cardiovascular events. Of 273 eligible patients, 209 were available for follow-up. Nine patients had died at a median age of 46years (range 30-64years), five of them due to cardiovascular complications. Late mortality after surgical intervention was 5.7% with a median age of 41years (range 16-64years). Twenty-five patients had a major cardiovascular event: 12 had procedures at the aortic valve or aortic arch, 8 had procedures for restenosis, 2 had endocarditis, 2 had a cerebrovascular insult and 1 an aortic dissection. The presence of bicuspid aortic valve (p=0.009), brachial-ankle blood pressure gradient >20mmHg (p<0.001) and reduced left ventricular function (p=0.002) correlated with major cardiovascular events. Surgical correction of coarctation of the aorta shows fairly low mortality in the long-term follow-up. Late morbidities include recoarctation, but also the consequences of the hemodynamics produced by a congenital bicuspid aortic valve, presence of which is predictive for aortic valve procedures: however the predictive value of clinical variables is limited. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Can large long-term investors capture illiquidity premiums

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Driessen, J.J.A.G.

2015-01-01

In this paper we perform a literature study to assess whether large long-term investors can benefit from liquidity premiums in different asset classes. We both describe the theoretical predictions on liquidity premiums and portfolio choice with illiquidity, as well as empirical evidence on liquidity

Gastrointestinal Symptoms in Celiac Disease Patients on a Long-Term Gluten-Free Diet.

Science.gov (United States)

Laurikka, Pilvi; Salmi, Teea; Collin, Pekka; Huhtala, Heini; Mäki, Markku; Kaukinen, Katri; Kurppa, Kalle

2016-07-14

Experience suggests that many celiac patients suffer from persistent symptoms despite a long-term gluten-free diet (GFD). We investigated the prevalence and severity of these symptoms in patients with variable duration of GFD. Altogether, 856 patients were classified into untreated (n = 128), short-term GFD (1-2 years, n = 93) and long-term GFD (≥3 years, n = 635) groups. Analyses were made of clinical and histological data and dietary adherence. Symptoms were evaluated by the validated GSRS questionnaire. One-hundred-sixty healthy subjects comprised the control group. Further, the severity of symptoms was compared with that in peptic ulcer, reflux disease, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Altogether, 93% of the short-term and 94% of the long-term treated patients had a strict GFD and recovered mucosa. Untreated patients had more diarrhea, indigestion and abdominal pain than those on GFD and controls. There were no differences in symptoms between the short- and long-term GFD groups, but both yielded poorer GSRS total score than controls (p = 0.03 and p = 0.05, respectively). Furthermore, patients treated 1-2 years had more diarrhea (p = 0.03) and those treated >10 years more reflux (p = 0.04) than controls. Long-term treated celiac patients showed relatively mild symptoms compared with other gastrointestinal diseases. Based on our results, good response to GFD sustained in long-term follow-up, but not all patients reach the level of healthy individuals.

Cognitive, physical, and mental health outcomes between long-term cannabis and tobacco users.

Science.gov (United States)

Lovell, M E; Bruno, R; Johnston, J; Matthews, A; McGregor, I; Allsop, D J; Lintzeris, N

2018-04-01

Cannabis intoxication adversely affects health, yet persistent effects following short-term abstinence in long-term cannabis users are unclear. This matched-subjects, cross-sectional study compared health outcomes of long-term cannabis and long-term tobacco-only users, relative to population norms. Nineteen long-term (mean 32.3years of use, mean age 55.7years), abstinent (mean 15h) cannabis users and 16 long-term tobacco users (mean 37.1years of use, mean age 52.9years), matched for age, educational attainment, and lifetime tobacco consumption, were compared on measures of learning and memory, response inhibition, information-processing, sustained attention, executive control, and mental and physical health. Cannabis users exhibited poorer overall learning and delayed recall and greater interference and forgetting than tobacco users, and exhibited poorer recall than norms. Inhibition and executive control were similar between groups, but cannabis users had slower reaction times during information processing and sustained attention tasks. Cannabis users had superior health satisfaction and psychological, somatic, and general health than tobacco users and had similar mental and physical health to norms whilst tobacco users had greater stress, role limitations from emotional problems, and poorer health satisfaction. Long-term cannabis users may exhibit deficits in some cognitive domains despite short-term abstinence and may therefore benefit from interventions to improve cognitive performance. Tobacco alone may contribute to adverse mental and physical health outcomes, which requires appropriate control in future studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Barrier code for predicting long-term concrete performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shuman, R.; Rogers, V.C.; Shaw, R.A.

1989-01-01

There are numerous features incorporated into a LLW disposal facility that deal directly with critical safety objectives required by the NRC in 10 CFR 61. Engineered barriers or structures incorporating concrete are commonly being considered for waste disposal facilities. The Barrier computer code calculates the long-term degradation of concrete structures in LLW disposal facilities. It couples this degradation with water infiltration into the facility, nuclide leaching from the waste, contaminated water release from the facility, and associated doses to members of the critical population group. The concrete degradation methodology of Barrier is described

Predicting long-term outcomes for children affected by HIV and AIDS: perspectives from the scientific study of children's development.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Alan; Desmond, Christopher; Garbarino, James; Van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Barbarin, Oscar; Black, Maureen M; Stein, Aryeh D; Hillis, Susan D; Kalichman, Seth C; Mercy, James A; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Rapa, Elizabeth; Saul, Janet R; Dobrova-Krol, Natasha A; Richter, Linda M

2014-07-01

The immediate and short-term consequences of adult HIV for affected children are well documented. Little research has examined the long-term implications of childhood adversity stemming from caregiver HIV infection. Through overviews provided by experts in the field, together with an iterative process of consultation and refinement, we have extracted insights from the broader field of child development of relevance to predicting the long-term consequences to children affected by HIV and AIDS. We focus on what is known about the impact of adversities similar to those experienced by HIV-affected children, and for which there is longitudinal evidence. Cautioning that findings are not directly transferable across children or contexts, we examine findings from the study of parental death, divorce, poor parental mental health, institutionalization, undernutrition, and exposure to violence. Regardless of the type of adversity, the majority of children manifest resilience and do not experience any long-term negative consequences. However, a significant minority do and these children experience not one, but multiple problems, which frequently endure over time in the absence of support and opportunities for recovery. As a result, they are highly likely to suffer numerous and enduring impacts. These insights suggest a new strategic approach to interventions for children affected by HIV and AIDS, one that effectively combines a universal lattice of protection with intensive intervention targeted to selected children and families.

Severe Spastic Contractures and Diabetes Mellitus Independently Predict Subsequent Minimal Trauma Fractures Among Long-Term Care Residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Kuen; Leung, Man Fuk; Kwan, Chi Wai; Kwan, Joseph

2016-11-01

The study aimed to examine the epidemiology of hypertonic contractures and its relationship with minimal trauma fracture (MTF), and to determine the incidence and predictors of (MTF) in long-term care residents. This was a longitudinal cohort study of prospectively collected data. Participants were followed from March 2007 to March 2016 or until death. A 300-bed long-term care hospital in Hong Kong. All long-term care residents who were in need of continuous medical and nursing care for their activities of daily living. Information on patients' demographic data, severe contracture defined as a decrease of 50% or more of the normal passive range of joint movement of the joint, and severe limb spasticity defined by the Modified Ashworth Scale higher than grade 3, medical comorbidities, functional status, cognitive status, nutritional status including body mass index and serum albumin, past history of fractures, were evaluated as potential risk factors for subsequent MTF. Three hundred ninety-six residents [148 males, mean ± standard deviation (SD), age = 79 ± 16 years] were included for analysis. The presence of severe contracture was highly prevalent among the study population: 91% of residents had at least 1 severe contracture, and 41% of residents had severe contractures involving all 4 limbs. Moreover, there were a significant proportion of residents who had severe limb spasticity with the elbow flexors (32.4%) and knee flexors (33.9%) being the most commonly involved muscles. Twelve residents (3%) suffered from subsequent MTF over a median follow-up of 33 (SD = 30) months. Seven out of these 12 residents died during the follow-up period, with a mean survival of 17.8 months (SD = 12.6) after the fracture event. The following 2 factors were found to independently predict subsequent MTF in a multivariate Cox regression: bilateral severe spastic knee contractures (hazard ratio = 16.5, P contractures are common morbidities in long-term care residents

Long-term follow-up of cognitive outcome after breech presentation at birth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Henrik Toft; Steffensen, Flemming Hald; Olsen, Jørn

1999-01-01

Studies of long-term consequences of birth in breech presentation are sparse. Therefore, we conducted a cohort study linking birth registry data with data collected during evaluation for military service in 4,298 conscripts born between 1973 and 1976. The cognitive functions were measured...... with the Boerge Prien IQ test. A total of 164 conscripts were born in breech presentation and 70 (42.7%) of these were delivered after Caesarean section. The mean Boerge Prien test score was 43.2 among men born in cephalic presentation and 39.9 among those born in breech presentation for a difference of 3.3 (95......% confidence interval = 1.8-4.7). The negative association between breech presentation and cognitive outcome persisted after stratifying by Caesarean section and after adjustment for confounders. It also persisted when we restricted the analyses to term singleton pregnancies....

Relationship between short and long term radon measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, T.; Ramirez, D.; Navarrete, M.; Cabrera, L.; Ramirez, A.; Gonzalez, P.

2000-01-01

In this work the radon group of the Faculty of Chemistry at the National University of Mexico presents the results obtained in the establishment of a relation between the short and long term radon measures made with passive electret detectors E-PERM type LLT and HST. The measures were carried out inside single family dwellings (open house condition) located in the southeast of Mexico City (in Xochimilco) during the four seasons of the year 1997. A correlation was established between the short term measures (five days) and those of a long term for every season as well as an annual average, with an equation that relates them. The objective and advantage of this correlation are that with a short term measure it is possible to predict the annual mean radon concentration, that represents a saving of human and economic resources. (author)

Work factors as predictors of persistent fatigue: a prospective study of nurses' aides.

Science.gov (United States)

Eriksen, W

2006-06-01

To identify work factors that predict persistent fatigue in nurses' aides. The sample comprised 5547 Norwegian nurses' aides, not on leave when they completed a mailed questionnaire in 1999. Of these, 4645 (83.7%) completed a second questionnaire 15 months later. The outcome measure was the occurrence of persistent fatigue, defined as having felt "usually fatigued" or "always fatigued" in daytime during the previous 14 days. In respondents without persistent fatigue at baseline, medium and high work demands, heavy smoking, being single, and having long term health problems were associated with increased risk of persistent fatigue at follow up. Medium and high rewards for well done work, medium levels of leadership fairness, and regular physical exercise were associated with reduced risk of persistent fatigue at follow up. In respondents with persistent fatigue at baseline, medium and high levels of positive challenges at work, high support from immediate superior, medium feedback about quality of one's work, and changes of work or work tasks that resulted in less heavy work or lower work pace were associated with increased odds of recovery (no persistent fatigue at follow up). Working in a nursing home and being intensely bothered by long term health problems were associated with reduced odds of recovery. High demands and lack of rewards at work may cause persistent fatigue in nurses' aides. Reduction of demands, adequate feedback, and mental stimulation in the form of support and positive challenges may facilitate recovery in those who have persistent fatigue. Leaders in the health services may be in a position to regulate factors that influence the level of fatigue in nurses' aides.

Alterations in adaptive immunity persist during long-duration spaceflight

Science.gov (United States)

Crucian, Brian; Stowe, Raymond P; Mehta, Satish; Quiriarte, Heather; Pierson, Duane; Sams, Clarence

2015-01-01

Background: It is currently unknown whether immune system alterations persist during long-duration spaceflight. In this study various adaptive immune parameters were assessed in astronauts at three intervals during 6-month spaceflight on board the International Space Station (ISS). AIMS: To assess phenotypic and functional immune system alterations in astronauts participating in 6-month orbital spaceflight. Methods: Blood was collected before, during, and after flight from 23 astronauts participating in 6-month ISS expeditions. In-flight samples were returned to Earth within 48 h of collection for immediate analysis. Assays included peripheral leukocyte distribution, T-cell function, virus-specific immunity, and mitogen-stimulated cytokine production profiles. Results: Redistribution of leukocyte subsets occurred during flight, including an elevated white blood cell (WBC) count and alterations in CD8+ T-cell maturation. A reduction in general T-cell function (both CD4+ and CD8+) persisted for the duration of the 6-month spaceflights, with differential responses between mitogens suggesting an activation threshold shift. The percentage of CD4+ T cells capable of producing IL-2 was depressed after landing. Significant reductions in mitogen-stimulated production of IFNγ, IL-10, IL-5, TNFα, and IL-6 persisted during spaceflight. Following lipopolysaccharide (LPS) stimulation, production of IL-10 was reduced, whereas IL-8 production was increased during flight. Conclusions: The data indicated that immune alterations persist during long-duration spaceflight. This phenomenon, in the absence of appropriate countermeasures, has the potential to increase specific clinical risks for crewmembers during exploration-class deep space missions. PMID:28725716

The long persistence of regional entrepreneurship culture: Germany 1925 - 2005

OpenAIRE

Fritsch, Michael; Wyrwich, Michael

2012-01-01

We investigate the persistence of levels of self-employment and new business formation in different time periods and under different framework conditions. The analysis shows that high levels of regional self-employment and new business formation tend to be persistent for periods as long as 80 years and that such an entrepreneurial culture can even survive abrupt and drastic changes in the politic-economic environment. We thus conclude that regional entrepreneurship cultures do exist and that ...

Developing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based model for predicting water table depth in agricultural areas

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jianfeng; Zhu, Yan; Zhang, Xiaoping; Ye, Ming; Yang, Jinzhong

2018-06-01

Predicting water table depth over the long-term in agricultural areas presents great challenges because these areas have complex and heterogeneous hydrogeological characteristics, boundary conditions, and human activities; also, nonlinear interactions occur among these factors. Therefore, a new time series model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), was developed in this study as an alternative to computationally expensive physical models. The proposed model is composed of an LSTM layer with another fully connected layer on top of it, with a dropout method applied in the first LSTM layer. In this study, the proposed model was applied and evaluated in five sub-areas of Hetao Irrigation District in arid northwestern China using data of 14 years (2000-2013). The proposed model uses monthly water diversion, evaporation, precipitation, temperature, and time as input data to predict water table depth. A simple but effective standardization method was employed to pre-process data to ensure data on the same scale. 14 years of data are separated into two sets: training set (2000-2011) and validation set (2012-2013) in the experiment. As expected, the proposed model achieves higher R2 scores (0.789-0.952) in water table depth prediction, when compared with the results of traditional feed-forward neural network (FFNN), which only reaches relatively low R2 scores (0.004-0.495), proving that the proposed model can preserve and learn previous information well. Furthermore, the validity of the dropout method and the proposed model's architecture are discussed. Through experimentation, the results show that the dropout method can prevent overfitting significantly. In addition, comparisons between the R2 scores of the proposed model and Double-LSTM model (R2 scores range from 0.170 to 0.864), further prove that the proposed model's architecture is reasonable and can contribute to a strong learning ability on time series data. Thus, one can conclude that the proposed model can

After laparoscopic Heller myotomy, do emergency department visits or readmissions predict poor long-term outcomes?

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Sharona; Villadolid, Desiree; Al-Saadi, Sam; Boyle, Robert; Cowgill, Sarah M; Rosemurgy, Alexander

2008-12-01

Laparoscopic Heller myotomy is a first-line treatment for achalasia. To improve outcomes after myotomy and to determine if poor early results predict later outcomes, emergency department (ED) visits and readmissions within 60 days following laparoscopic Heller myotomy were studied. Since 1992, 352 patients have undergone laparoscopic Heller myotomy and are followed through a prospectively maintained registry. Causes of ED visits and readmissions within 60 days after myotomy were determined. Patients scored their symptoms of achalasia before myotomy and at last follow-up; scores were compared to determine if the reasons leading to ED visits and/or readmissions impacted long-term outcome after myotomy. Fourteen (4%) patients had ED visits, and 18 (5%) patients had readmissions within 60 days following myotomy. Sixty-four percent of ED visits were for dysphagia/vomiting and 36% were for abdominal/chest pain, while 37% of readmissions were for dysphagia/vomiting. Pneumonia was complicated by empyema in four patients, all without leaks; two patients expired. Despite ED visits/readmissions, achalasia symptom (e.g., dysphagia, regurgitation, choking, heartburn, and chest pain) frequency and severity scores improved after myotomy (p Heller myotomy. ED visits were generally due to complaints related to achalasia or edema after myotomy, while readmissions were generally related to complications of operative intervention or chronic ill health. Despite ED visits or readmissions early after myotomy, symptoms of achalasia are well palliated by myotomy long-term.

Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C.

1997-01-01

Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion

Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

Science.gov (United States)

Yoas, Daniel W.

2013-01-01

Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

Saving and Re-building Lives: Determinants of Short-term and Long-term Disaster Relief

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geethanjali SELVARETNAM

2014-11-01

Full Text Available We analyse both theoretically and empirically, the factors that influence the amount of humanitarian aid received by countries which are struck by natural disasters, particularly distinguishing between immediate disaster relief and long term humanitarian aid. The theoretical model is able to make predictions as well as explain some of the peculiarities in the empirical results. We show that both short and long term humanitarian aid increases with number of people killed, financial loss and level of corruption, while GDP per capita had no effect. More populated countries receive more humanitarian aid. Earthquake, tsunami and drought attract more aid.

Long-term strategic asset allocation: An out-of-sample evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Diris, B.F.; Palm, F.C.; Schotman, P.C.

We evaluate the out-of-sample performance of a long-term investor who follows an optimized dynamic trading strategy. Although the dynamic strategy is able to benefit from predictability out-of-sample, a short-term investor using a single-period market timing strategy would have realized an almost

[Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

Science.gov (United States)

Plancke, L; Amariei, A

2017-02-01

Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

Hippocampal-prefrontal connectivity predicts midfrontal oscillations and long-term memory performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cohen, M.X.

2011-01-01

The hippocampus and prefrontal cortex interact to support working memory (WM) and long-term memory [1, 2 and 3]. Neurophysiologically, WM is thought to be subserved by reverberatory activity of distributed networks within the prefrontal cortex (PFC) [2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8], which become synchronized

Bone Density, Microarchitecture, and Tissue Quality Long-term After Kidney Transplant.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Sáez, María José; Herrera, Sabina; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel; Nogués, Xavier; Vera, María; Redondo-Pachón, Dolores; Mir, Marisa; Güerri, Roberto; Crespo, Marta; Díez-Pérez, Adolfo; Pascual, Julio

2017-06-01

Bone mineral density (BMD) measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry is used to assess bone health in kidney transplant recipients (KTR). Trabecular bone score and in vivo microindentation are novel techniques that directly measure trabecular microarchitecture and mechanical properties of bone at a tissue level and independently predict fracture risk. We tested the bone status of long-term KTR using all 3 techniques. Cross-sectional study including 40 KTR with more than 10 years of follow-up and 94 healthy nontransplanted subjects as controls. Bone mineral density was measured at lumbar spine and the hip. Trabecular bone score was measured by specific software on the dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans of lumbar spine in 39 KTR and 77 controls. Microindentation was performed at the anterior tibial face with a reference-point indenter device. Bone measurements were standardized as percentage of a reference value, expressed as bone material strength index (BMSi) units. Multivariable (age, sex, and body mass index-adjusted) linear regression models were fitted to study the association between KTR and BMD/BMSi/trabecular bone score. Bone mineral density was lower at lumbar spine (0.925 ± 0.15 vs 0.982 ± 0.14; P = 0.025), total hip (0.792 ± 0.14 vs 0.902 ± 0.13; P bone score was borderline lower (1.21 ± 0.14 vs 1.3 ± 0.15; adjusted P = 0.072) in KTR. Despite persistent decrease in BMD, trabecular microarchitecture and tissue quality remain normal in long-term KTR, suggesting important recovery of bone health.

Long-term prediction of corrosion damage in nuclear waste systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hidekazu Asano; Feron, Damien; Gens, Robert; Padovani, Cristiano; Naoki Taniguchi

2014-01-01

Complete text of publication follows: The Fifth International Workshop on Long-Term Prediction of Corrosion Damage in Nuclear Waste Systems was held at the Taisetsu Crystal Hall in Asahikawa, Hokkaido, Japan from October 6 to 10, 2013, following the four previous successful workshops (Cadarache, France, 2001; Nice, France, 2004; Pennsylvania State University, USA, 2007 and Bruges, Belgium, 2010). It was organised by the Japan Society of Corrosion Engineering (JSCE) and supported by the European Federation of Corrosion (EFC): Nuclear Corrosion Working Party (WP4) as of EFC event No.360. Furthermore, it was supported by the Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Environment (NUCE) of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) and The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (JSME). Twenty nine (29) oral presentations were distributed among eleven (11) sessions covering a broad range of subjects. Another twenty eight (28) studies were presented at a poster session. A total of sixty seven (67) participants from twelve (12) countries attended the event. The presentations and the following discussion provided contextual information about the state of some national programmes and covered in detail a range of experimental and modelling studies aimed at evaluating the corrosion behaviour of a range of candidate materials and designs for the storage and disposal of radioactive wastes considered across the globe. These included modelling studies aimed at evaluating the durability of container designs for high level waste (HLW), spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and intermediate level waste (ILW), experimental studies of the corrosion behaviour of copper, carbon steel, and stainless steel in conditions relevant to storage (atmospheric) or disposal (near neutral or alkaline), as well as studies of archaeological artifacts and natural analogues aimed at supporting long-term predictions. Specific sessions were dedicated to microbial induced corrosion (MIC) and to the corrosion properties of

Improvement of cardiac function persists long term with medical therapy for left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, David; Chang, Richard; Umakanthan, Branavan; Stoletniy, Liset N; Heywood, J Thomas

2007-09-01

In certain patients with left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction, improvements in cardiac function are seen after initiation of medical therapy; however, the long-term stability of ventricular function in such patients is not well described. We retrospectively analyzed 171 patients who had a baseline ejection fraction of 45% or less, a follow-up echocardiogram at 2 to 12 months after initiation of medical therapy, and a final echocardiogram. We found that 48.5% of the patients demonstrated initial improvements in LV function after initiation of medical therapy, and the improvements appear to be sustained (88% of patients) at 44 +/- 21 months follow-up. A nonischemic etiology and younger age were the only independent predictors of change of LV ejection fraction of 10 or more at a mean 8.4 +/- 3.4 months after optimal medical therapy. Our study revealed a trend toward improved long-term survival in individuals with an early improvement in LV ejection fraction with medical therapy, especially in those with sustained improvement.

a Method for the Extraction of Long-Term Deformation Characteristics of Long-Span High-Speed Railway Bridges Using High-Resolution SAR Images

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, H. G.; Liu, L. Y.

2016-06-01

Natural causes and high-speed train load will result in the structural deformation of long-span bridges, which greatly influence the safety operation of high-speed railway. Hence it is necessary to conduct the deformation monitoring and regular status assessment for long-span bridges. However for some traditional surveying technique, e.g. control-point-based surveying techniques, a lot of human and material resources are needed to perform the long-term monitoring for the whole bridge. In this study we detected the long-term bridge deformation time-series by persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PSInSAR) technique using the high-resolution SAR images and external digital elevation model. A test area in Nanjing city in China is chosen and TerraSAR-X images and Tandem-X for this area have been used. There is the Dashengguan bridge in high speed railway in this area as study object to evaluate this method. Experiment results indicate that the proposed method can effectively extract the long-term deformation of long-span high-speed railway bridge with higher accuracy.

A METHOD FOR THE EXTRACTION OF LONG-TERM DEFORMATION CHARACTERISTICS OF LONG-SPAN HIGH-SPEED RAILWAY BRIDGES USING HIGH-RESOLUTION SAR IMAGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. G. Jia

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Natural causes and high-speed train load will result in the structural deformation of long-span bridges, which greatly influence the safety operation of high-speed railway. Hence it is necessary to conduct the deformation monitoring and regular status assessment for long-span bridges. However for some traditional surveying technique, e.g. control-point-based surveying techniques, a lot of human and material resources are needed to perform the long-term monitoring for the whole bridge. In this study we detected the long-term bridge deformation time-series by persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PSInSAR technique using the high-resolution SAR images and external digital elevation model. A test area in Nanjing city in China is chosen and TerraSAR-X images and Tandem-X for this area have been used. There is the Dashengguan bridge in high speed railway in this area as study object to evaluate this method. Experiment results indicate that the proposed method can effectively extract the long-term deformation of long-span high-speed railway bridge with higher accuracy.

Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy V.P. Bliss

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

High levels of comorbidity and disability cancel out the dementia effect in predictions of long-term mortality after discharge in the very old.

Science.gov (United States)

Zekry, Dina; Herrmann, François R; Graf, Christophe E; Giannelli, Sandra; Michel, Jean-Pierre; Gold, Gabriel; Krause, Karl-Heinz

2011-01-01

The relative weight of various etiologies of dementia as predictors of long-term mortality after other risk factors have been taken into account remains unclear. We investigated the 5-year mortality risk associated with dementia in elderly people after discharge from acute care, taking into account comorbid conditions and functionality. A prospective cohort study of 444 patients (mean age: 85 years; 74% female) discharged from the acute geriatric unit of Geneva University Hospitals. On admission, each subject underwent a standardized diagnostic evaluation: demographic variables, cognitive, comorbid medical conditions and functional assessment. Patients were followed yearly by the same team. Predictors of survival at 5 years were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. The univariate model showed that being older and male, and having vascular and severe dementia, comorbidity and functional disability, were predictive of shorter survival. However, in the full multivariate model adjusted for age and sex, the effect of dementia type or severity completely disappeared when all the variables were added. In multivariate analysis, the best predictor was higher comorbidity score, followed by functional status (R(2) = 23%). The identification of comorbidity and functional impairment effects as predictive factors for long-term mortality independent of cognitive status may increase the accuracy of long-term discharge planning. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Reinstatement of long-term memory following erasure of its behavioral and synaptic expression in Aplysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shanping; Cai, Diancai; Pearce, Kaycey; Sun, Philip Y-W; Roberts, Adam C; Glanzman, David L

2014-11-17

Long-term memory (LTM) is believed to be stored in the brain as changes in synaptic connections. Here, we show that LTM storage and synaptic change can be dissociated. Cocultures of Aplysia sensory and motor neurons were trained with spaced pulses of serotonin, which induces long-term facilitation. Serotonin (5HT) triggered growth of new presynaptic varicosities, a synaptic mechanism of long-term sensitization. Following 5HT training, two antimnemonic treatments-reconsolidation blockade and inhibition of PKM--caused the number of presynaptic varicosities to revert to the original, pretraining value. Surprisingly, the final synaptic structure was not achieved by targeted retraction of the 5HT-induced varicosities but, rather, by an apparently arbitrary retraction of both 5HT-induced and original synapses. In addition, we find evidence that the LTM for sensitization persists covertly after its apparent elimination by the same antimnemonic treatments that erase learning-related synaptic growth. These results challenge the idea that stable synapses store long-term memories.

Persistent hemifacial spasm after microvascular decompression: a risk assessment model.

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Aalap; Horowitz, Michael

2017-06-01

Microvascular decompression (MVD) for hemifacial spasm (HFS) provides resolution of disabling symptoms such as eyelid twitching and muscle contractions of the entire hemiface. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of patient demographics and spasm characteristics on long-term outcomes, with or without intraoperative lateral spread response (LSR) as an additional variable in a risk assessment model. A retrospective study was undertaken to evaluate the associations of pre-operative patient characteristics, as well as intraoperative LSR and need for a staged procedure on the presence of persistent or recurrent HFS at the time of hospital discharge and at follow-up. A risk assessment model was constructed with the inclusion of six clinically or statistically significant variables from the univariate analyses. A receiving operator characteristic curve was generated, and area under the curve was calculated to determine the strength of the predictive model. A risk assessment model was first created consisting of significant pre-operative variables (Model 1) (age >50, female gender, history of botulinum toxin use, platysma muscle involvement). This model demonstrated borderline predictive value for persistent spasm at discharge (AUC .60; p=.045) and fair predictive value at follow-up (AUC .75; p=.001). Intraoperative variables (e.g. LSR persistence) demonstrated little additive value (Model 2) (AUC .67). Patients with a higher risk score (three or greater) demonstrated greater odds of persistent HFS at the time of discharge (OR 1.5 [95%CI 1.16-1.97]; p=.035), as well as greater odds of persistent or recurrent spasm at the time of follow-up (OR 3.0 [95%CI 1.52-5.95]; p=.002) Conclusions: A risk assessment model consisting of pre-operative clinical characteristics is useful in prognosticating HFS persistence at follow-up.

Long term results of childhood dysphonia treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mackiewicz-Nartowicz, Hanna; Sinkiewicz, Anna; Bielecka, Arleta; Owczarzak, Hanna; Mackiewicz-Milewska, Magdalena; Winiarski, Piotr

2014-05-01

The aim of this study was to assess the long term results of treatment and rehabilitation of childhood dysphonia. This study included a group of adolescents (n=29) aged from 15 to 20 who were treated due to pediatric hyperfunctional dysphonia and soft vocal fold nodules during their pre-mutational period (i.e. between 5 and 12 years of age). The pre-mutational therapy was comprised of proper breathing pattern training, voice exercises and psychological counseling. Laryngostroboscopic examination and perceptual analysis of voice were performed in each patient before treatment and one to four years after mutation was complete. The laryngostroboscopic findings, i.e. symmetry, amplitude, mucosal wave and vocal fold closure, were graded with NAPZ scale, and the GRBAS scale was used for the perceptual voice analysis. Complete regression of the childhood dysphonia was observed in all male patients (n=14). Voice disorders regressed completely also in 8 out of 15 girls, but symptoms of dysphonia documented on perceptual scale persisted in the remaining seven patients. Complex voice therapy implemented in adolescence should be considered as either the treatment or preventive measure of persistent voice strain, especially in girls. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of long-term prestress losses in pretensioned high performance concrete girders.

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

Effective determination of long-term prestress losses is important in the design of prestressed concrete bridges. Over-predicting prestress losses results in an overly conservative design for service load stresses, and under-predicting prestress loss...

Assessment of long-term creep strength of grade 91 steel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kimura, Kazuhiro; Sawada, Kota; Kushima, Hideaki [National Inst. for Materials Science, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

2010-07-01

In 2004 and 2005 long-term creep rupture strength of ASME Grade 91 type steels of plate, pipe, forging and tube materials was evaluated in Japan by means of region splitting analysis method in consideration of 50% of 0.2% offset yield stress. According to the evaluated 100,000h creep rupture strength of 94MPa for plate, pipe and forging steels and 92MPa for tube steel at 600 C, allowable tensile stress of the steels regulated in the Interpretation for the Technical Standard for Thermal Power Plant was slightly reduced. New creep rupture data of the steels obtained in the long-term indicate further reduction of long-term creep rupture strength. Not only creep rupture strength, but also creep deformation property of the ASME Grade 91 steel was investigated and need of reevaluation of long-term creep strength of Grade 91 steel was indicated. A refinement of region splitting analysis method for creep rupture like prediction was discussed. (orig.)

Antimicrobial stewardship in long term care facilities: what is effective?

Science.gov (United States)

Nicolle, Lindsay E

2014-02-12

Intense antimicrobial use in long term care facilities promotes the emergence and persistence of antimicrobial resistant organisms and leads to adverse effects such as C. difficile colitis. Guidelines recommend development of antimicrobial stewardship programs for these facilities to promote optimal antimicrobial use. However, the effectiveness of these programs or the contribution of any specific program component is not known. For this review, publications describing evaluation of antimicrobial stewardship programs for long term care facilities were identified through a systematic literature search. Interventions included education, guidelines development, feedback to practitioners, and infectious disease consultation. The studies reviewed varied in types of facilities, interventions used, implementation, and evaluation. Comprehensive programs addressing all infections were reported to have improved antimicrobial use for at least some outcomes. Targeted programs for treatment of pneumonia were minimally effective, and only for indicators of uncertain relevance for stewardship. Programs focusing on specific aspects of treatment of urinary infection - limiting treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria or prophylaxis of urinary infection - were reported to be effective. There were no reports of cost-effectiveness, and the sustainability of most of the programs is unclear. There is a need for further evaluation to characterize effective antimicrobial stewardship for long term care facilities.

Long-Term Symbolic Learning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

2007-01-01

What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

Self-concept and quality of object relations as predictors of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindfors, Olavi; Knekt, Paul; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa

2014-01-01

Quality of object relations and self-concept reflect clinically relevant aspects of personality functioning, but their prediction as suitability factors for psychotherapies of different lengths has not been compared. This study compared their prediction on psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- and long-term psychotherapy. Altogether 326 patients, 20-46 years of age, with mood and/or anxiety disorder, were randomized to short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) psychotherapy and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy. The Quality of Object Relations Scale (QORS) and the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (SASB) self-concept questionnaire were measured at baseline, and their prediction on outcome during the 3-year follow-up was assessed by the Symptom Check List Global Severity Index and the Anxiety Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory and by the Work Ability Index, Social Adjustment Scale work subscale and the Perceived Psychological Functioning scale. Negative self-concept strongly and self-controlling characteristics modestly predicted better 3-year outcomes in long-term therapy, after faster early gains in short-term therapy. Patients with a more positive or self-emancipating self-concept, or more mature object relations, experienced more extensive benefits after long-term psychotherapy. The importance of length vs. long-term therapy technique on the differences found is not known. Patients with mild to moderate personality pathology, indicated by poor self-concept, seem to benefit more from long-term than short-term psychotherapy, in reducing risk of depression. Long-term therapy may also be indicated for patients with relatively good psychological functioning. More research is needed on the relative importance of these characteristics in comparison with other patient-related factors. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Layer 2/3 synapses in monocular and binocular regions of tree shrew visual cortex express mAChR-dependent long-term depression and long-term potentiation.

Science.gov (United States)

McCoy, Portia; Norton, Thomas T; McMahon, Lori L

2008-07-01

Acetylcholine is an important modulator of synaptic efficacy and is required for learning and memory tasks involving the visual cortex. In rodent visual cortex, activation of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (mAChRs) induces a persistent long-term depression (LTD) of transmission at synapses recorded in layer 2/3 of acute slices. Although the rodent studies expand our knowledge of how the cholinergic system modulates synaptic function underlying learning and memory, they are not easily extrapolated to more complex visual systems. Here we used tree shrews for their similarities to primates, including a visual cortex with separate, defined regions of monocular and binocular innervation, to determine whether mAChR activation induces long-term plasticity. We find that the cholinergic agonist carbachol (CCh) not only induces long-term plasticity, but the direction of the plasticity depends on the subregion. In the monocular region, CCh application induces LTD of the postsynaptic potential recorded in layer 2/3 that requires activation of m3 mAChRs and a signaling cascade that includes activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) 1/2. In contrast, layer 2/3 postsynaptic potentials recorded in the binocular region express long-term potentiation (LTP) following CCh application that requires activation of m1 mAChRs and phospholipase C. Our results show that activation of mAChRs induces long-term plasticity at excitatory synapses in tree shrew visual cortex. However, depending on the ocular inputs to that region, variation exists as to the direction of plasticity, as well as to the specific mAChR and signaling mechanisms that are required.

BRAF mutation is not predictive of long-term outcome in papillary thyroid carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henke, Lauren E; Pfeifer, John D; Ma, Changquing; Perkins, Stephanie M; DeWees, Todd; El-Mofty, Samir; Moley, Jeffrey F; Nussenbaum, Brian; Haughey, Bruce H; Baranski, Thomas J; Schwarz, Julie K; Grigsby, Perry W

2015-01-01

The BRAF mutation occurs commonly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Previous investigations of its utility to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) have reported conflicting results and its role remains unclear. The purpose of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence of the BRAF mutation and analyze its relationship to clinicopathologic risk factors and long-term outcomes in the largest, single-institution American cohort to date. BRAF mutational status was determined in 508 PTC patients using RFLP analysis. The relationships between BRAF mutation status, patient and tumor characteristics, RFS, and DSS were analyzed. The BRAF mutation was present in 67% of patients. On multivariate analysis, presence of the mutation predicted only for capsular invasion (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6), cervical lymph node involvement (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.7), and classic papillary histology (HR, 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–2.9). There was no significant relationship between the BRAF mutation and RFS or DSS, an observation that was consistent across univariate, multivariate, and Kaplan–Meier analyses. This is the most extensive study to date in the United States to demonstrate that BRAF mutation is of no predictive value for recurrence or survival in PTC. We found correlations of BRAF status and several clinicopathologic characteristics of high-risk disease, but limited evidence that the mutation correlates with more extensive or aggressive disease. This analysis suggests that BRAF is minimally prognostic in PTC. However, prevalence of the BRAF mutation is 70% in the general population, providing the opportunity for targeted therapy

Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study)123

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

2015-01-01

Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing <5% of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and thresholds were calculated for each model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve’s capacity to classify participants likely to lose <5% of their body weight at the end of 1 y. The models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Results: Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). Conclusions: The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. The POUNDS Lost study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00072995. PMID:25733628

What are driving the long-term Caspian Sea level change?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J.

2017-12-01

Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015, and show that PER (P-E+R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop ( -6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of +12.38 and -6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.

Long persistence of rigor mortis at constant low temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Varetto, Lorenzo; Curto, Ombretta

2005-01-06

We studied the persistence of rigor mortis by using physical manipulation. We tested the mobility of the knee on 146 corpses kept under refrigeration at Torino's city mortuary at a constant temperature of +4 degrees C. We found a persistence of complete rigor lasting for 10 days in all the cadavers we kept under observation; and in one case, rigor lasted for 16 days. Between the 11th and the 17th days, a progressively increasing number of corpses showed a change from complete into partial rigor (characterized by partial bending of the articulation). After the 17th day, all the remaining corpses showed partial rigor and in the two cadavers that were kept under observation "à outrance" we found the absolute resolution of rigor mortis occurred on the 28th day. Our results prove that it is possible to find a persistence of rigor mortis that is much longer than the expected when environmental conditions resemble average outdoor winter temperatures in temperate zones. Therefore, this datum must be considered when a corpse is found in those environmental conditions so that when estimating the time of death, we are not misled by the long persistence of rigor mortis.

Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heinen, Florian; Sibbertsen, Philipp; Kruse, Robinson

We consider the problem of forecasting time series with long memory when the memory parameter is subject to a structural break. By means of a large-scale Monte Carlo study we show that ignoring such a change in persistence leads to substantially reduced forecasting precision. The strength...... of this effect depends on whether the memory parameter is increasing or decreasing over time. A comparison of six forecasting strategies allows us to conclude that pre-testing for a change in persistence is highly recommendable in our setting. In addition we provide an empirical example which underlines...

Chest HRCT signs predict deaths in long-term follow-up among asbestos exposed workers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vehmas, Tapio, E-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Topeliuksenkatu 41 a A, FI-00250 Helsinki (Finland); Oksa, Panu, E-mail: panu.oksa@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Uimalankatu 1, FI-33101 Tampere (Finland)

2014-10-15

Highlights: • Much lung and pleural pathology is found in chest CT studies. • HRCT signs were screened and subsequent mortality followed up. • Several signs were related to all-cause and disease specific deaths. • The HRCT classification system used was able to predict mortality. • Secondary preventive strategies should be developed for patients with such signs. - Abstract: Objectives: To study associations between chest HRCT signs and subsequent deaths in long-term follow-up. Methods: Lung and pleural signs of 633 asbestos exposed workers (age 45–86, mean 65) screened with HRCT were recorded by using the International Classification of Occupational and Environmental Respiratory Diseases (ICOERD) system, which contains detailed instructions for use and reference images. Subsequent mortality was checked from the national register. Cox regression adjusted for covariates (age, sex, BMI, asbestos exposure, pack-years) was used to explore the relations between HRCT signs and all-cause deaths, cardiovascular and benign respiratory deaths, and deaths from neoplasms – all according to the ICD-10 diagnostic system. Results: The follow-up totalled 5271.9 person-years (mean 8.3 y/person, range .04–10.3). 119 deaths were reported. Irregular/linear opacities, honeycombing, emphysema, large opacities, visceral pleural abnormalities and bronchial wall thickening were all significantly related to all-cause deaths. Most of these signs were associated also with deaths from neoplasms and benign respiratory disease. Deaths from cardiovascular disease were predicted by emphysema and visceral pleural abnormalities. Conclusions: Several HRCT signs predicted deaths. Careful attention should be paid on subjects with radiological signs predictive of deaths and new secondary preventive strategies developed. This calls for further focused studies among different populations.

Predicting long-term organic carbon dynamics in organically amended soils using the CQESTR model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plaza, Cesar; Polo, Alfredo [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Ciencias Agrarias; Gollany, Hero T. [Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, OR (United States). USDA-ARS; Baldoni, Guido; Ciavatta, Claudio [Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dept. of Agroenvironmental Sciences and Technologies

2012-04-15

Purpose: The CQESTR model is a process-based C model recently developed to simulate soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics and uses readily available or easily measurable input parameters. The current version of CQESTR (v. 2.0) has been validated successfully with a number of datasets from agricultural sites in North America but still needs to be tested in other geographic areas and soil types under diverse organic management systems. Materials and methods: We evaluated the predictive performance of CQESTR to simulate long-term (34 years) soil organic C (SOC) changes in a SOM-depleted European soil either unamended or amended with solid manure, liquid manure, or crop residue. Results and discussion: Measured SOC levels declined over the study period in the unamended soil, remained constant in the soil amended with crop residues, and tended to increase in the soils amended with manure, especially with solid manure. Linear regression analysis of measured SOC contents and CQESTR predictions resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.626 (P < 0.001) and a slope and an intercept not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively (95% confidence level). The mean squared deviation and root mean square error were relatively small. Simulated values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the measured SOC, and predicted errors were mainly associated with data scattering. Conclusions: The CQESTR model was shown to predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the organic C dynamics in the soils examined. The CQESTR performance, however, could be improved by adding an additional parameter to differentiate between pre-decomposed organic amendments with varying degrees of stability. (orig.)

Long-term competence restoration.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Douglas R; DeYoung, Nathaniel J

2014-01-01

While the United States Supreme Court's Jackson v. Indiana decision and most state statutes mandate determinations of incompetent defendants' restoration probabilities, courts and forensic clinicians continue to lack empirical evidence to guide these determinations and do not yet have a consensus regarding whether and under what circumstances incompetent defendants are restorable. The evidence base concerning the restoration likelihood of those defendants who fail initial restoration efforts is even further diminished and has largely gone unstudied. In this study, we examined the disposition of a cohort of defendants who underwent long-term competence restoration efforts (greater than six months) and identified factors related to whether these defendants were able to attain restoration and adjudicative success. Approximately two-thirds (n = 52) of the 81 individuals undergoing extended restoration efforts were eventually deemed restored to competence. Lengths of hospitalization until successful restoration are presented with implications for the reasonable length of time that restoration efforts should persist. Older individuals were less likely to be restored and successfully adjudicated, and individuals with more severe charges and greater factual legal understanding were more likely to be restored and adjudicated. The significance of these findings for courts and forensic clinicians is discussed.

Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maura Murru

2010-11-01

Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

Predicting Prognosis for the Conduct-Problem Boy: Can Family History Help?

Science.gov (United States)

Odgers, Candice L.; Milne, Barry J.; Caspi, Avshalom; Crump, Raewyn; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

2007-01-01

Objective: Many children with conduct disorder develop life-course persistent antisocial behavior; however, other children exhibit childhood-limited or adolescence-limited conduct disorder symptoms and escape poor adult outcomes. Prospective prediction of long-term prognosis in pediatric and adolescent clinical settings is difficult. Improved…

Short-Term Expectation Formation Versus Long-Term Equilibrium Conditions: The Danish Housing Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Hetland

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The primary contribution of this paper is to establish that the long-swings behavior observed in the market price of Danish housing since the 1970s can be understood by studying the interplay between short-term expectation formation and long-run equilibrium conditions. We introduce an asset market model for housing based on uncertainty rather than risk, which under mild assumptions allows for other forms of forecasting behavior than rational expectations. We test the theory via an I(2 cointegrated VAR model and find that the long-run equilibrium for the housing price corresponds closely to the predictions from the theoretical framework. Additionally, we corroborate previous findings that housing markets are well characterized by short-term momentum forecasting behavior. Our conclusions have wider relevance, since housing prices play a role in the wider Danish economy, and other developed economies, through wealth effects.

Prediction of remission in Graves` disease treated with long-term carbimazole therapy: evaluation of technetium-99m thyroid uptake and TSH concentrations as prognostic indicators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prakash, R. [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Batra Hospital, New Delhi (India)

1996-02-01

Computerized technetium-99m thyroid uptake and thyrotropin (TSH) estimation using a sensitive immunoradiometric assay were performed at presentation and following completion of an 18-month course of antithyroid drug therapy in 45 patients with Graves` disease. All patients had increased {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake and subnormal TSH levels before the start of treatment. Twentytwo patients developed recurrent hyperthyroidism in a 3-year follow-up period. Of the 22 patients with relapse, 20 had had a persistently increased {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake at the end of the course of carbimazole treatment, whereas TSH had remained subnormal in 18 of the 22. All 23 patients who remained in remission until the end of the 3-year follow-up had had normal {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake following completion of antihyroid drug treatment. TSH levels had reverted to normal in 19 cases, but remained subnormal in four cases in this group at the end of treatment. The results suggest a high likelihood of relapse in patients who have persistently increased {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake and subnormal TSH after a full course of carbimazole treatment. Patients whose {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake and TSH levels have reverted to normal are likely to stay in long-term remission. Assessment of {sup 99m}Tc thyroid uptake and TSH levels following completion of carbimazole therapy for Graves` disease offers useful information regarding long-term prognosis. (orig.)

Long-term stability of orbits in storage rings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warnock, R.L.; Ruth, R.D.

1990-06-01

We describe a numerical method to establish long-term bounds on nonlinear Hamiltonian motion. By bounding the change in a nearly constant action variable, uniformly in initial condition, one can predict stability for N turns by tracking many orbits for a member of turns of N 0 much less than N. In a first application to a model sextupole lattice in a region of strong nonlinearity, we predict stability of betatron motion in two degrees of freedom for 10 8 turns. 5 refs., 3 figs

The predictive value of current haemoglobin levels for incident tuberculosis and/or mortality during long-term antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kerkhoff, Andrew D.; Wood, Robin; Cobelens, Frank G.; Gupta-Wright, Ankur; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Lawn, Stephen D.

2015-01-01

Low haemoglobin concentrations may be predictive of incident tuberculosis (TB) and death in HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), but data are limited and inconsistent. We examined these relationships retrospectively in a long-term South African ART cohort with multiple

Government Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates

OpenAIRE

Noriaki Kinoshita

2006-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between government debt and long-term interest rates. A dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates debt nonneutrality is specified and solved, and numerical simulations using the model are undertaken. In addition, empirical evidence using panel data for 19 industrial countries is examined. The estimation provides some evidence supporting the theoretical predictions: the paper finds that the simulated and estimated interest rate effects of governme...

Emergence of Long-Term Memory in Popularity

OpenAIRE

Soh, Hyungjoon; Hong, Joo Hyung; Jeong, Jaeseung; Jeong, Hawoong

2017-01-01

Popularity describes the dynamics of mass attention, and is a part of a broader class of population dynamics in ecology and social science literature. Studying accurate model of popularity is important for quantifying spreading of novelty, memes, and influences in human society. Although logistic equation and similar class of nonlinear differential equation formulates traditional population dynamics well, part of the deviation in long-term prediction is stated, yet fully understood. Recently,...

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Persistence in the Cryptocurrency Market

OpenAIRE

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Plastun, Alex

2017-01-01

This paper examines persistence in the cryptocurrency market. Two different long-memory methods (R/S analysis and fractional integration) are used to analyse it in the case of the four main cryptocurrencies (BitCoin, LiteCoin, Ripple, Dash) over the sample period 2013-2017. The findings indicate that this market exhibits persistence (there is a positive correlation between its past and future values), and that its degree changes over time. Such predictability represents evidence of market ine...

Phrenicotomy alters phrenic long-term facilitation following intermittent hypoxia in anesthetized rats

OpenAIRE

Sandhu, M. S.; Lee, K. Z.; Fregosi, R. F.; Fuller, D. D.

2010-01-01

Intermittent hypoxia (IH) can induce a persistent increase in neural drive to the respiratory muscles known as long-term facilitation (LTF). LTF of phrenic inspiratory activity is often studied in anesthetized animals after phrenicotomy (PhrX), with subsequent recordings being made from the proximal stump of the phrenic nerve. However, severing afferent and efferent axons in the phrenic nerve has the potential to alter the excitability of phrenic motoneurons, which has been hypothesized to be...

How to diagnose rheumatoid arthritis early: a prediction model for persistent (erosive) arthritis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, Henk; le Cessie, Saskia; Vos, Koen; Breedveld, Ferdinand C.; Hazes, Johanna M. W.

2002-01-01

To develop a clinical model for the prediction, at the first visit, of 3 forms of arthritis outcome: self-limiting, persistent nonerosive, and persistent erosive arthritis. A standardized diagnostic evaluation was performed on 524 consecutive, newly referred patients with early arthritis.

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

Numerical simulation of gender differences in a long-term microgravity exposure

Science.gov (United States)

Perez-Poch, Antoni

The objective of this work is to analyse and simulate gender differences when individuals are exposed to long-term microgravity. Risk probability of a health impairment which may put in jeopardy a long-term mission is also evaluated. Computer simulations are becoming a promising research line of work, as physiological models become more and more sophisticated and reliable. Technological advances in state-of-the-art hardware technology and software allow nowadays for better and more accurate simulations of complex phenomena, such as the response of the human cardiovascular system to long-term exposure to microgravity. Experimental data for long-term missions are difficult to achieve and reproduce, therefore the predictions of computer simulations are of a major importance in this field. Our approach is based on a previous model developed and implemented in our laboratory (NELME: Numerical Evaluation of Long-term Microgravity Effects). The software simulates the behaviour of the cardiovascular system and different human organs, has a modular architecture, and allows to introduce perturbations such as physical exercise or countermeasures. The implementation is based on a complex electricallike model of this control system, using inexpensive software development frameworks, and has been tested and validated with the available experimental data. Gender differences have been implemented for this specific work, as an adjustment of a number of parameters that are included in the model. Women versus men physiological differences have been therefore taken into account, based upon estimations from the physiology bibliography. A number of simulations have been carried out for long-term exposure to microgravity. Gravity varying from Earth-based to zero, and time exposure are the two main variables involved in the construction of results, including responses to patterns of physical aerobical exercise, and also thermal stress simulating an extra-vehicular activity. Results show

Salt Marsh development studies at Waquoit Bay, Massachusetts: Influence of geomorphology on long-term plant community structure

Science.gov (United States)

Orson, Richard A.; Howes, Brian L.

1992-11-01

Stochastic events relating to beach formation and inlet dynamics have been the major factors influencing the development of the Waquoit Bay tidal marshes. This results from the physical structure of the Waquoit Bay system where tidal exchange is limited to one or two small inlets and is in contrast to marsh development in nearby Barnstable Marsh where direct unrestricted exchange with Cape Cod Bay has smoothed the effects of stochastic events on vegetation development. We contend that vegetation development in salt marshes where connections to adjacent waters are restricted will be dominated by abiotic factors (e.g. storms, sedimentation rates, etc.) while those marshes directly linked to open bodies of water and where alterations to hydrodynamic factors are gradual, autecological processes (e.g. interspecific competition) will dominate long-term plant community development. The results from the five marsh systems within the Waquoit Bay complex suggest that once a vegetation change occurs the new community tended to persist for long periods of time (100's-1000's years). Stability of the 'new' community appeared to depend upon the stability of the physical structure of the system and/or time between perturbations necessary to allow the slower autecological processes to have a discernable effect. In order for the plant community to persist as long as observed, the vegetation must also be exerting an influence on the processes of development. Increased production of roots and rhizomes and growth characteristics (density of culms) are some of the factors which help to maintain long-term species dominance. It is clear from this investigation that the structure of the plant community at any one point in time is dependent upon numerous factors including historical developmental influences. To properly assess changes to the present plant community or determine recent rates of accretion, historic developmental trends must be considered. The factors that have influenced the

Restoration treatments in urban park forests drive long-term changes in vegetation trajectories.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Lea R; Handel, Steven N

2016-04-01

Municipalities are turning to ecological restoration of urban forests as a measure to improve air quality, ameliorate urban heat island effects, improve storm water infiltration, and provide other social and ecological benefits. However, community dynamics following urban forest restoration treatments are poorly documented. This study examines the long-term effects of ecological restoration undertaken in New York City, New York, USA, to restore native forest in urban park natural areas invaded by woody non-native plants that are regional problems. In 2009 and 2010, we sampled vegetation in 30 invaded sites in three large public parks that were restored 1988-1993, and 30 sites in three large parks that were similarly invaded but had not been restored. Data from these matched plots reveal that the restoration treatment achieved its central goals. After 15-20 years, invasive species removal followed by native tree planting resulted in persistent structural and compositional shifts, significantly lower invasive species abundance, a more complex forest structure, and greater native tree recruitment. Together, these findings indicate that successional trajectories of vegetation dynamics have diverged between restored forests and invaded forests that were not restored. In addition, the data suggest that future composition of these urban forest patches will be novel assemblages. Restored and untreated sites shared a suite of shade-intolerant, quickly-growing tree species that colonize disturbed sites, indicating that restoration treatments created sites hospitable for germination and growth of species adapted to high light conditions and disturbed soils. These findings yield an urban perspective on the use of succession theory in ecological restoration. Models of ecological restoration developed in more pristine environments must be modified for use in cities. By anticipating both urban disturbances and ecological succession, management of urban forest patches can be

Short-term Automated Quantification of Radiologic Changes in the Characterization of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Versus Nonspecific Interstitial Pneumonia and Prediction of Long-term Survival.

Science.gov (United States)

De Giacomi, Federica; Raghunath, Sushravya; Karwoski, Ronald; Bartholmai, Brian J; Moua, Teng

2018-03-01

Fibrotic interstitial lung diseases presenting with nonspecific and overlapping radiologic findings may be difficult to diagnose without surgical biopsy. We hypothesized that baseline quantifiable radiologic features and their short-term interval change may be predictive of underlying histologic diagnosis as well as long-term survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) presenting without honeycombing versus nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). Forty biopsy-confirmed IPF and 20 biopsy-confirmed NSIP patients with available high-resolution chest computed tomography 4 to 24 months apart were studied. CALIPER software was used for the automated characterization and quantification of radiologic findings. IPF subjects were older (66 vs. 48; P<0.0001) with lower diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide and higher volumes of baseline reticulation (193 vs. 83 mL; P<0.0001). Over the interval period, compared with NSIP, IPF patients experienced greater functional decline (forced vital capacity, -6.3% vs. -1.7%; P=0.02) and radiologic progression, as noted by greater increase in reticulation volume (24 vs. 1.74 mL; P=0.048), and decrease in normal (-220 vs. -37.7 mL; P=0.045) and total lung volumes (-198 vs. 58.1 mL; P=0.03). Older age, male gender, higher reticulation volumes at baseline, and greater interval decrease in normal lung volumes were predictive of IPF. Both baseline and short-term changes in quantitative radiologic findings were predictive of mortality. Baseline quantitative radiologic findings and assessment of short-term disease progression may help characterize underlying IPF versus NSIP in those with difficult to differentiate clinicoradiologic presentations. Our study supports the possible utility of assessing serial quantifiable high-resolution chest computed tomographic findings for disease differentiation in these 2 entities.

Long-term semantic representations moderate the effect of attentional refreshing on episodic memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Loaiza, Vanessa M; Duperreault, Kayla A; Rhodes, Matthew G; McCabe, David P

2015-02-01

The McCabe effect (McCabe, Journal of Memory and Language 58:480-494, 2008) refers to an advantage in episodic memory (EM) retrieval for memoranda studied in complex span versus simple span tasks, particularly for memoranda presented in earlier serial positions. This finding has been attributed to the necessity to refresh memoranda during complex span tasks that, in turn, promotes content-context binding in working memory (WM). Several frameworks have conceptualized WM as being embedded in long-term memory. Thus, refreshing may be less efficient when memoranda are not well-established in long-term semantic memory (SM). To investigate this, we presented words and nonwords in simple and complex span trials in order to manipulate the long-term semantic representations of the memoranda with the requirement to refresh the memoranda during WM. A recognition test was administered that required participants to make a remember-know decision for each memorandum recognized as old. The results replicated the McCabe effect, but only for words, and the beneficial effect of refreshing opportunities was exclusive to recollection. These results extend previous research by indicating that the predictive relationship between WM refreshing and long-term EM is specific to recollection and, furthermore, moderated by representations in long-term SM. This supports the predictions of WM frameworks that espouse the importance of refreshing in content-context binding, but also those that view WM as being an activated subset of and, therefore, constrained by the contents of long-term memory.

Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

OpenAIRE

Sinha, Sidharth

2014-01-01

Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

Decomposition of heterogeneous organic matterand its long-term stabilization in soils

Science.gov (United States)

Sierra, Carlos A.; Harmon, Mark E.; Perakis, Steven S.

2011-01-01

Soil organic matter is a complex mixture of material with heterogeneous biological, physical, and chemical properties. Decomposition models represent this heterogeneity either as a set of discrete pools with different residence times or as a continuum of qualities. It is unclear though, whether these two different approaches yield comparable predictions of organic matter dynamics. Here, we compare predictions from these two different approaches and propose an intermediate approach to study organic matter decomposition based on concepts from continuous models implemented numerically. We found that the disagreement between discrete and continuous approaches can be considerable depending on the degree of nonlinearity of the model and simulation time. The two approaches can diverge substantially for predicting long-term processes in soils. Based on our alternative approach, which is a modification of the continuous quality theory, we explored the temporal patterns that emerge by treating substrate heterogeneity explicitly. The analysis suggests that the pattern of carbon mineralization over time is highly dependent on the degree and form of nonlinearity in the model, mostly expressed as differences in microbial growth and efficiency for different substrates. Moreover, short-term stabilization and destabilization mechanisms operating simultaneously result in long-term accumulation of carbon characterized by low decomposition rates, independent of the characteristics of the incoming litter. We show that representation of heterogeneity in the decomposition process can lead to substantial improvements in our understanding of carbon mineralization and its long-term stability in soils.

Requirement for nuclear calcium signaling in Drosophila long-term memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Weislogel, Jan-Marek; Bengtson, C Peter; Müller, Michaela K; Hörtzsch, Jan N; Bujard, Martina; Schuster, Christoph M; Bading, Hilmar

2013-05-07

Calcium is used throughout evolution as an intracellular signal transducer. In the mammalian central nervous system, calcium mediates the dialogue between the synapse and the nucleus that is required for transcription-dependent persistent neuronal adaptations. A role for nuclear calcium signaling in similar processes in the invertebrate brain has yet to be investigated. Here, we show by in vivo calcium imaging of adult brain neurons of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, that electrical foot shocks used in olfactory avoidance conditioning evoked transient increases in cytosolic and nuclear calcium concentrations in neurons. These calcium signals were detected in Kenyon cells of the flies' mushroom bodies, which are sites of learning and memory related to smell. Acute blockade of nuclear calcium signaling during conditioning selectively and reversibly abolished the formation of long-term olfactory avoidance memory, whereas short-term, middle-term, or anesthesia-resistant olfactory memory remained unaffected. Thus, nuclear calcium signaling is required in flies for the progression of memories from labile to transcription-dependent long-lasting forms. These results identify nuclear calcium as an evolutionarily conserved signal needed in both invertebrate and vertebrate brains for transcription-dependent memory consolidation.

An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

Science.gov (United States)

Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

2014-01-01

Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

Consumer Decision-Making Abilities and Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase.

Science.gov (United States)

McGarry, Brian E; Tempkin-Greener, Helena; Grabowski, David C; Chapman, Benjamin P; Li, Yue

2018-04-16

To determine the impact of consumer decision-making abilities on making a long-term care insurance (LTCi) purchasing decision that is consistent with normative economic predictions regarding policy ownership. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, multivariate analyses are implemented to estimate the effect of decision-making ability factors on owning LTCi. Stratified multivariate analyses are used to examine the effect of decision-making abilities on the likelihood of adhering to economic predictions of LTCi ownership. In the full sample, better cognitive capacity was found to significantly increase the odds of ownership. When the sample was stratified based on expected LTCi ownership status, cognitive capacity was positively associated with ownership among those predicted to own and negatively associated with ownership among those predicted not to own who could likely afford a policy. Consumer decision-making abilities, specifically cognitive capacity, are an important determinant of LTCi decision outcomes. Deficits in this ability may prevent individuals from successfully preparing for future long-term care expenses. Policy makers should consider changes that reduce the cognitive burden of this choice, including the standardization of the LTCi market, the provision of consumer decision aids, and alternatives to voluntary and private insuring mechanisms.

Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

Science.gov (United States)

Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

2012-06-01

Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term studies of the natural history of asthma in childhood

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bisgaard, Hans; Bønnelykke, Klaus

2010-01-01

Segmentation of children with asthma and other wheezy disorders remains the main research challenge today, as it was when described 2 centuries ago. Early childhood wheezy disorders follow different temporal trajectories, probably representing different underlying mechanisms (endophenotypes...... secondary prevention through the use of inhaled corticosteroids can effectively halt the long-term disease progression in childhood. In conclusion, the natural history of asthma and the associated airway changes is still poorly understood, and we have not managed to translate findings from long-term studies......). Prospective identification of endophenotypes allowing accurate prediction of the clinical course is currently not possible. The variability of the clinical course remains an enigma and difficult to predict. Three of 4 school-aged children with asthma have outgrown disease by midadulthood. The risk...

Costs and longer-term savings of parenting programmes for the prevention of persistent conduct disorder: a modelling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beecham Jennifer

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Conduct disorders are the most common psychiatric disorders in children and may persist into adulthood in about 50% of cases. The costs to society are high and impact many public sector agencies. Parenting programmes have been shown to positively affect child behaviour, but little is known about their potential long-term cost-effectiveness. We therefore estimate the costs of and longer-term savings from evidence-based parenting programmes for the prevention of persistent conduct disorder. Methods A decision-analytic Markov model compares two scenarios: 1 a 5-year old with clinical conduct disorder receives an evidence-based parenting programme; 2 the same 5-year old does not receive the programme. Cost-savings analysis is performed by comparing the probability that conduct disorder persists over time in each scenario, adopting both a public sector and a societal perspective. If the intervention is successful in reducing persistent conduct disorder, cost savings may arise from reduced use of health services, education support, social care, voluntary agencies and from crimes averted. Results Results strongly suggest that parenting programmes reduce the chance that conduct disorder persists into adulthood and are cost-saving to the public sector within 5-8 years under base case conditions. Total savings to society over 25 years are estimated at £16,435 per family, which compares with an intervention cost in the range of £952-£2,078 (2008/09 prices. Conclusions Effective implementation of evidence-based parenting programmes is likely to yield cost savings to the public sector and society. More research is needed to address evidence gaps regarding the current level of provision, longer-term effectiveness and questions of implementation, engagement and equity.

Diversity loss with persistent human disturbance increases vulnerability to ecosystem collapse.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDougall, A S; McCann, K S; Gellner, G; Turkington, R

2013-02-07

Long-term and persistent human disturbances have simultaneously altered the stability and diversity of ecological systems, with disturbances directly reducing functional attributes such as invasion resistance, while eliminating the buffering effects of high species diversity. Theory predicts that this combination of environmental change and diversity loss increases the risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible ecosystem collapse, but long-term empirical evidence from natural systems is lacking. Here we demonstrate this relationship in a degraded but species-rich pyrogenic grassland in which the combined effects of fire suppression, invasion and trophic collapse have created a species-poor grassland that is highly productive, resilient to yearly climatic fluctuations, and resistant to invasion, but vulnerable to rapid collapse after the re-introduction of fire. We initially show how human disturbance has created a negative relationship between diversity and function, contrary to theoretical predictions. Fire prevention since the mid-nineteenth century is associated with the loss of plant species but it has stabilized high-yield annual production and invasion resistance, comparable to a managed high-yield low-diversity agricultural system. In managing for fire suppression, however, a hidden vulnerability to sudden environmental change emerges that is explained by the elimination of the buffering effects of high species diversity. With the re-introduction of fire, grasslands only persist in areas with remnant concentrations of native species, in which a range of rare and mostly functionally redundant plants proliferate after burning and prevent extensive invasion including a rapid conversion towards woodland. This research shows how biodiversity can be crucial for ecosystem stability despite appearing functionally insignificant beforehand, a relationship probably applicable to many ecosystems given the globally prevalent combination of intensive long-term land

Long-term effects of burning on woody plant species sprouting on the False thornveld of Eastern Cape

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Ratsele, C

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Sprouting allows woody plant species to persist in a site after a wide range of disturbances (e.g. prolonged fire), where opportunities for seedling establishment are limited. A study to investigate long-term effects of fire sprouting of woody...

Response to Intervention as a Predictor of Long-Term Reading Outcomes in Children with Dyslexia.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Kleij, Sanne W; Segers, Eliane; Groen, Margriet A; Verhoeven, Ludo

2017-08-01

The goal of this study was to investigate how growth during a phonics-based intervention, as well as reading levels at baseline testing, predicted long-term reading outcomes of children with dyslexia. Eighty Dutch children with dyslexia who had completed a 50-week phonics-based intervention in grade 4 were tested in grade 5 on both word and pseudoword (following regular Dutch orthographic patterns) reading efficiency and compared to 93 typical readers. In grade 5 the children with dyslexia were still significantly slower in word and pseudoword reading than their typically developing peers. Results showed that long-term pseudoword reading in the group with dyslexia was predicted by pseudoword reading at pretest and growth in pseudoword reading during the intervention, which was itself predicted by pseudoword reading at pretest. This was not the case for word reading. We found that long-term word reading was directly predicted from pretest word reading, and indirectly via pretest pseudoword reading, via growth in pseudoword and word reading. It can be concluded that pseudoword reading is not only a good indicator of severity of reading difficulties in children with dyslexia, it is also an indicator of who will profit from intervention in the long-term. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Long term stability of power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

1994-12-31

Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

Predicting Persistent Back Symptoms by Psychosocial Risk Factors: Validity Criteria for the ÖMPSQ and the HKF-R 10 in Germany.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Riewe

Full Text Available 10% of all individuals in Germany develop persistent symptoms due to nonspecific back pain (NSBP causing up to 90% of direct and indirect expenses for health care systems. Evidence indicates a strong relationship between chronic nonspecific back pain and psychosocial risk factors. The Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (ÖMPSQ and the German Heidelberger Kurzfragebogen Rückenschmerz (HKF-R 10 are deemed valid in prediction of persistent pain, functional loss or amount of sick leave. This study provides and discusses validity criteria for these questionnaires using ROC-curve analyses. Quality measurements included sensitivity and specificity, likelihood-ratio related test-efficiencies and clinical utility in regard to predictive values.265 patients recruited from primary and secondary care units completed both questionnaires during the same timeframe. From the total, 133 patients returned a 6-month follow-up questionnaire to assess the validity criteria for outcomes of pain, function and sick leave.Based on heterogeneous cut-offs for the ÖMPSQ, sensitivity and specificity were moderate for outcome of pain (72%/75%. Very high sensitivity was observed for function (97%/57% and high specificity for sick leave (63%/85%. The latter also applied to the HKF-R 10 (pain 50%/84%. Proportions between sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced except for the ÖMPSQ outcome of pain. Likelihood-ratios and positive predictive values ranged from low to moderate.Although the ÖMPSQ may be considered useful in identification of long-term functional loss or pain, over- and underestimation of patients at risk of chronic noncspecific back pain led to limited test-efficiencies and clinical utility for both questionnaires. Further studies are required to quantify the predictive validity of both questionnaires in Germany.

Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skuterud, L.; Aahman, B.; Solatie, D.; Gaare, E.

2009-06-01

The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for maintaining

Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skuterud, L. (Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Norwegian Reindeer Husbandry Administration (Norway)); AAhman, B. (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences (Sweden)); Solatie, D. (STUK-Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (Finland)); Gaare, E. (Norwegian Institute for Nature Researc (Norway))

2009-06-15

The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for

Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

Science.gov (United States)

Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J

2015-03-19

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Naidoo, M

2011-10-01

Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

The term structure of interest rates and inflation forecast targeting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Schaling

2011-08-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the implications of the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates for the implementation of inflation targeting. We show that the responsiveness of the central bank’s instrument to the underlying state of the economy is increasing in the duration of the long-term bond.  On the other hand, an increase in duration will make long-term inflationary expectations - and therefore also the long-term nominal interest rate - less responsive to the state of the economy. The extent to which the central bank is concerned with output stabilisation will exert a moderating influence on the central bank’s response to leading indicators of future inflation. However, the effect of an increase in this parameter on the long-term nominal interest rate turns out to be ambiguous. Next, we show that both the sensitivity of the nominal term spread to economic fundamentals and the extent to which the spread predicts future output, are increasing in the duration of the long bond and the degree of structural output persistence. However, if the central bank becomes relatively less concerned about inflation stabilisation the term spread will be less successful in predicting real economic activity.

Long-term outcome in rheumatoid arthritis: a simple algorithm of baseline parameters can predict radiographic damage, disability, and disease course at 12-year followup

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Drossaers-Bakker, K. W.; Zwinderman, A. H.; Vliet Vlieland, T. P. M.; van Zeben, D.; Vos, K.; Breedveld, F. C.; Hazes, J. M. W.

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To predict the long-term outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with respect to radiographic damage, disability, and disease course using baseline variables, and to construct decision trees identifying patients on an individual level at the extremes of the outcome spectrum of these 3

Speech Perception and Short-Term Memory Deficits in Persistent Developmental Speech Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Kenney, Mary Kay; Barac-Cikoja, Dragana; Finnegan, Kimberly; Jeffries, Neal; Ludlow, Christy L.

2006-01-01

Children with developmental speech disorders may have additional deficits in speech perception and/or short-term memory. To determine whether these are only transient developmental delays that can accompany the disorder in childhood or persist as part of the speech disorder, adults with a persistent familial speech disorder were tested on speech…

Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

2013-10-22

Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted image of a famous person were larger in a group of participants who had slept (experiment 1) or merely napped for 90 min (experiment 2) during the interval between adaptation and test compared with controls who stayed awake. Participants' individual rapid eye movement sleep duration predicted the size of post-sleep behavioural adaptation effects. Our data suggest that sleep prevented decay of adaptation in a way that is qualitatively different from the effects of reduced visual interference known as 'storage'. In the light of the well-established link between sleep and memory consolidation, our findings link the perceptual mechanisms of sensory adaptation--which are usually not considered to play a relevant role in mnemonic processes--with learning and memory, and at the same time reveal a new function of sleep in cognition.

Long-term intravenous administration of carboxylated single-walled carbon nanotubes induces persistent accumulation in the lungs and pulmonary fibrosis via the nuclear factor-kappa B pathway

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qin Y

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Yue Qin,1,* Suning Li,2,* Gan Zhao,2,* Xuanhao Fu,1 Xueping Xie,1 Yiyi Huang,1 Xiaojing Cheng,3 Jinbin Wei,1 Huagang Liu,1 Zefeng Lai1 1Pharmaceutical College, Guangxi Medical University, 2Department of Pharmacy, The Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, 3Life Sciences Institute, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: Numerous studies have demonstrated promising application of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs in drug delivery, diagnosis, and targeted therapy. However, the adverse health effects resulting from intravenous injection of SWNTs are not completely understood. Studies have shown that levels of “pristine” or carboxylated carbon nanotubes are very high in mouse lungs after intravenous injection. We hypothesized that long-term and repeated intravenous administration of carboxylated SWNTs (c-SWNTs can result in persistent accumulation and induce histopathologic changes in rat lungs. Here, c-SWNTs were administered repeatedly to rats via tail-vein injection for 90 days. Long-term intravenous injection of c-SWNTs caused sustained embolization in lung capillaries and granuloma formation. It also induced a persistent inflammatory response that was regulated by the nuclear factor-kappa B signaling pathway, and which resulted in pulmonary fibrogenesis. c-SWNTs trapped within lung capillaries traversed capillary walls and injured alveolar epithelial cells, thereby stimulating production of pro-inflammatory cytokines (tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-1 beta and pro-fibrotic growth factors (transforming growth factor-beta 1. Protein levels of type-I and type-III collagens, matrix metalloproteinase-2, and the tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 were upregulated after intravenous exposure to c-SWNTs as determined by immunohistochemical assays and Western blotting, which suggested collagen deposition

Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichikawa, Yasuaki

2004-02-01

Micro-structure of rock plays an essential role for their long-term behavior. For understanding long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope (CLSM) under uniaxial compression (before loading and at each loading stage), 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, and 3) a study of strong discontinuity analysis included in the homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. First, CLSM was used to acquire clearly focused three-dimensional images of granite specimens, and observed the change of microscale structure including the mineral configuration under applying uniaxial compression stress. Then though microcracks have ever thought to be initiated and propagated on intergranular boundaries, we understand through the CLSM observation that new microcracks are generated from the ends of pre-existing cracks which are distributed in quartz and biotite. Second, we showed the results of stress-relaxation test of granite specimens observed by an optical microscope under water-saturated triaxial compression condition. Since microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock, we managed the experiments with careful attention of 1) keeping constant edge-displacement and constant strain in the whole specimen accurately, and 2) measuring the relaxed stress exactly. Next, in order to simulate the experimental results which indicate that initiation and propagation of microcracks control the stress-relaxation phenomenon, we introduce a homogenization analysis procedure together with the strong discontinuity analysis which has recently established the mechanical implication and mathematical foundation. The numerical results show that we can

Short-term and long-term thermal prediction of a walking beam furnace using neuro-fuzzy techniques