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Sample records for predicts long-term adverse

  1. Adverse event reporting in Czech long-term care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hěib, Zdenřk; Vychytil, Pavel; Marx, David

    2013-04-01

    To describe adverse event reporting processes in long-term care facilities in the Czech Republic. Prospective cohort study involving a written questionnaire followed by in-person structured interviews with selected respondents. Long-term care facilities located in the Czech Republic. Staff of 111 long-term care facilities (87% of long-term care facilities in the Czech Republic). None. Sixty-three percent of long-term health-care facilities in the Czech Republic have adverse event-reporting processes already established, but these were frequently very immature programs sometimes consisting only of paper recording of incidents. Compared to questionnaire responses, in-person interview responses only partially tended to confirm the results of the written survey. Twenty-one facilities (33%) had at most 1 unconfirmed response, 31 facilities (49%) had 2 or 3 unconfirmed responses and the remaining 11 facilities (17%) had 4 or more unconfirmed responses. In-person interviews suggest that use of a written questionnaire to assess the adverse event-reporting process may have limited validity. Staff of the facilities we studied expressed an understanding of the importance of adverse event reporting and prevention, but interviews also suggested a lack of knowledge necessary for establishing a good institutional reporting system in long-term care.

  2. Assessing long-term and rare adverse effects of medicines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duijnhoven, R.G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/357218574

    2016-01-01

    Clinical studies in the development of new medicines are primarily designed to investigate efficacy. Knowledge of adverse effects is therefore limited at the time of approval of new medicines. In this thesis several studies were conducted to investigate long-term and rare adverse effects of

  3. Long term adverse drug reaction to Efavirenz in a HIV infected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is only one published case of serious adverse reaction to Efavirenz in an adolescent after long-term use. The case of a male HIV Positive Nigerian patient aged 13 years. He presented with five-day history of Difficulty sleeping, abnormal dreams, inability to concentrate, restlessness, irrational behavior and long-term ...

  4. EVALUATION OF LATE ADVERSE EVENTS IN LONG-TERM WILMS' TUMOR SURVIVORS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, Irma W. E. M.; Oldenburger, Foppe; Cardous-Ubbink, Mathilde C.; Geenen, Maud M.; Heinen, Richard C.; de Kraker, Jan; van Leeuwen, Flora E.; van der Pal, Helena J. H.; Caron, Huib N.; Koning, Caro C. E.; Kremer, Leontien C. M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the prevalence and severity of adverse events (AEs) and treatment-related risk factors in long-term Wilms' tumor (WT) survivors, with special attention to radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: The single-center study cohort consisted of 185 WT survivors treated between 1966 and

  5. Masculine norms, disclosure, and childhood adversities predict long-term mental distress among men with histories of child sexual abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Scott D

    2014-02-01

    Child sexual abuse (CSA) can have a profound effect on the long-term mental health of boys/men. However, not all men with histories of CSA experience psychopathology. To improve prevention and intervention services, more research is needed to understand why some male survivors experience mental health problems and others do not. The purpose of this study was to examine factors related to mental distress among a large, non-clinical sample of men with histories of CSA (N=487). Using a cross-sectional design with purposive sampling from three national survivor organizations, data were collected through an anonymous Internet-based survey. Multivariate analyses found that only one of the four CSA severity variables-use of physical force by the abuser-was related to mental distress. Additional factors that were related to mental distress included the number of other childhood adversities, years until disclosure, overall response to disclosure, and conformity to masculine norms. Overall, the final model predicted 36% of the variance in the number of mental health symptoms. Mental health practitioners should include masculine norms, disclosure history, and childhood adversities in assessments and intervention planning with male survivors. To more fully explicate risk factors for psychopathology in this population, future studies with probability samples of men that focus on mediational processes and use longitudinal designs are needed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prediction of long-term creep curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikawa, Hiroshi; Maruyama, Kouichi

    1992-01-01

    This paper aims at discussing how to predict long-term irradiation enhanced creep properties from short-term tests. The predictive method based on the θ concept was examined by using creep data of ferritic steels. The method was successful in predicting creep curves including the tertiary creep stage as well as rupture lifetimes. Some material constants involved in the method are insensitive to the irradiation environment, and their values obtained in thermal creep are applicable to irradiation enhanced creep. The creep mechanisms of most engineering materials definitely change at the athermal yield stress in the non-creep regime. One should be aware that short-term tests must be carried out at stresses lower than the athermal yield stress in order to predict the creep behavior of structural components correctly. (orig.)

  7. Do the frequencies of adverse events increase, decrease, or stay the same with long-term use of statins?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddy, Karlyn; Dhesi, Pavittarpaul; Thompson, Paul D

    2013-02-01

    Statins are widely used for their cholesterol-lowering properties and proven reduction of cardiovascular disease risk. Many patients take statins as long-term treatment for a variety of conditions without a clear-cut understanding of how treatment duration affects the frequency of adverse effects. We aimed to evaluate whether the frequencies of documented adverse events increase, decrease, or remain unchanged with long-term statin use. We reviewed the established literature to define the currently known adverse effects of statin therapy, including myopathy, central nervous system effects, and the appearance of diabetes, and the frequency of these events with long-term medication use. The frequency of adverse effects associated with long-term statin therapy appears to be low. Many patients who develop side effects from statin therapy do so relatively soon after initiation of therapy, so the frequency of side effects from statin therapy when expressed as a percentage of current users decreases over time. Nevertheless, patients may develop side effects such as muscle pain and weakness years after starting statin therapy; however, the absolute number of patients affected by statin myopathy increases with treatment duration. Also, clinical trials of statin therapy rarely exceed 5 years, so it is impossible to determine with certainty the frequency of long-term side effects with these drugs.

  8. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2018-02-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

  9. A Cohort Study on Long-Term Adverse Effects of Parental Drinking: Background and Study Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingunn Olea Lund

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although many studies have addressed adverse outcomes in children of parents with alcohol abuse/dependence, less is known about the possible long-term effects of more normative patterns of parental alcohol consumption, including drinking at lower risk levels and heavy episodic or binge drinking. The extent of harm from parental drinking may therefore be underestimated. With this research proposal, we describe a project that aims to assess possible long-term adverse effects of parental drinking by combining survey and nationwide registry data. Advantages of a longitudinal general population cohort design include that it allows for detailed information on parental drinking through survey data and identification of possible negative long-term health and social outcomes from exposure to parental drinking 1–19 years after exposure through continuously updated nationwide registers. The rich information available from combining survey and registry data allows us to take into account important confounders, mediators, and moderators.

  10. Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett W Pinsky

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to accurately predict a population′s long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population′s long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS projections were calculated and com-pared with the population′s actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1 fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A and (2 uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B. Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted sur-vival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%. Excellent predictability (41.3% can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population′s long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

  11. Predicting Adverse Health Outcomes in Long-Term Survivors of a Childhood Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaya S. Moskowitz

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available More than 80% of children and young adults diagnosed with invasive cancer will survive five or more years beyond their cancer diagnosis. This population has an increased risk for serious illness- and treatment-related morbidity and premature mortality. A number of these adverse health outcomes, such as cardiovascular disease and some second primary neoplasms, either have modifiable risk factors or can be successfully treated if detected early. Absolute risk models that project a personalized risk of developing a health outcome can be useful in patient counseling, in designing intervention studies, in forming prevention strategies, and in deciding upon surveillance programs. Here, we review existing absolute risk prediction models that are directly applicable to survivors of a childhood cancer, discuss the concepts and interpretation of absolute risk models, and examine ways in which these models can be used applied in clinical practice and public health.

  12. Long-Term Prediction of Severe Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Marie Moth; Færch, Louise; Thorsteinsson, Birger

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prediction of risk of severe hypoglycemia (SH) in patients with type 1 diabetes is important to prevent future episodes, but it is unknown if it is possible to predict the long-term risk of SH. The aim of the study is to assess if long-term prediction of SH is possible in type 1...... diabetes. METHODS: A follow-up study was performed with 98 patients with type 1 diabetes. At baseline and at follow-up, the patients filled in a questionnaire about diabetes history and complications, number of SH in the preceding year and state of awareness, and HbA1c and C-peptide levels were measured......-up. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term prediction of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes was not possible, although baseline hypoglycemia unawareness tended to remain a predictor for risk of SH at follow-up. Therefore, it is important repeatedly to assess the different risk factors of SH to determine the actual risk....

  13. Predicting long-term outcomes for children affected by HIV and AIDS: perspectives from the scientific study of children's development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Alan; Desmond, Christopher; Garbarino, James; Van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Barbarin, Oscar; Black, Maureen M; Stein, Aryeh D; Hillis, Susan D; Kalichman, Seth C; Mercy, James A; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Rapa, Elizabeth; Saul, Janet R; Dobrova-Krol, Natasha A; Richter, Linda M

    2014-07-01

    The immediate and short-term consequences of adult HIV for affected children are well documented. Little research has examined the long-term implications of childhood adversity stemming from caregiver HIV infection. Through overviews provided by experts in the field, together with an iterative process of consultation and refinement, we have extracted insights from the broader field of child development of relevance to predicting the long-term consequences to children affected by HIV and AIDS. We focus on what is known about the impact of adversities similar to those experienced by HIV-affected children, and for which there is longitudinal evidence. Cautioning that findings are not directly transferable across children or contexts, we examine findings from the study of parental death, divorce, poor parental mental health, institutionalization, undernutrition, and exposure to violence. Regardless of the type of adversity, the majority of children manifest resilience and do not experience any long-term negative consequences. However, a significant minority do and these children experience not one, but multiple problems, which frequently endure over time in the absence of support and opportunities for recovery. As a result, they are highly likely to suffer numerous and enduring impacts. These insights suggest a new strategic approach to interventions for children affected by HIV and AIDS, one that effectively combines a universal lattice of protection with intensive intervention targeted to selected children and families.

  14. Prediction of long term stability for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Koide, Hitoshi; Kono, Itoshi

    1998-01-01

    On geological disposal of radioactive wastes, study on prediction of diastrophism has been paid many attentions, and then long term future prediction ranging from some thousands to some tends thousands years may be necessary for some target nuclides. As there are various methods in the future prediction, it is essential to use a computational dynamic procedure to conduct a quantitative prediction. However, it causes an obstacle to advancement of the prediction method that informations on deep underground have a lot of uncertain elements because of their few and indirect data. In this paper, a long term prediction procedure of diastrophism relating to geological disposal of radioactive wastes with low level but isolation terms required to some thousands years was investigated and each one example was shown on flow of the investigation and its modeling method by using the finite element method. It seems to be a key to upgrade accuracy of future diastrophism prediction how an earth fault can be analyzed. And, as the diastrophism is a long term and complex phenomenon and its prediction has many uncertain elements, it is important to judge comprehensively results of its numerical analysis geologically and on rock engineering. (G.K.)

  15. Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haimin Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam, for long short-term memory (LSTM to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM.

  16. Robust and Adaptive Online Time Series Prediction with Long Short-Term Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Haimin; Pan, Zhisong; Tao, Qing

    2017-01-01

    Online time series prediction is the mainstream method in a wide range of fields, ranging from speech analysis and noise cancelation to stock market analysis. However, the data often contains many outliers with the increasing length of time series in real world. These outliers can mislead the learned model if treated as normal points in the process of prediction. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a robust and adaptive online gradient learning method, RoAdam (Robust Adam), for long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict time series with outliers. This method tunes the learning rate of the stochastic gradient algorithm adaptively in the process of prediction, which reduces the adverse effect of outliers. It tracks the relative prediction error of the loss function with a weighted average through modifying Adam, a popular stochastic gradient method algorithm for training deep neural networks. In our algorithm, the large value of the relative prediction error corresponds to a small learning rate, and vice versa. The experiments on both synthetic data and real time series show that our method achieves better performance compared to the existing methods based on LSTM.

  17. Long-term Creep Life Prediction for Type 316LN Stainless Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Ryu, Woo Seog; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bok

    2007-01-01

    Since Sodium Fast Cooled Reactor (SFR) components are designed to be use for more than 30 years at a high temperature of 550 .deg. C, one of the most important properties of these components is the long term creep behavior. To accurately predict the long-term creep life of the components, it is essential to achieve reliable long-term test data beyond their design life. But, it is difficult to actually obtain long duration data because it is time-consuming work. So far, a variety of time-temperature parameters (TTPs) have been developed to predict a long-term creep life from shorter-time tests at higher temperatures. Among them, the Larson-Miller, the Orr-Sherby-Dorn, the Manson-Harferd and the Manson-Succop parameters have been typically used. None of these parameters has an overwhelming preference, and they have certain inherent restrictions imposed on their data in the application of the TTPs parameters. Meanwhile, it has been reported that the Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) proposed by Manson and Ensign has a greater flexibility for a creep rupture analysis. Thus, the MCM will be useful as another approach. Until now, the applicability of the MCM has not been investigated for type 316LN SS because of insufficient creep data. In this paper, the MCM was applied to predict a long-term creep life of type 316LN stainless steel (SS). Lots of creep rupture data was collected through literature surveys and the experimental data of KAERI. Using the short-term experimental data for under 2,000 hours, a longer-time rupture above 105 hours was predicted by the MCM at temperatures from 550 .deg. C to 800 .deg. C

  18. Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekonomou, L.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper artificial neural networks (ANN) are addressed in order the Greek long-term energy consumption to be predicted. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) has been used for this purpose by testing several possible architectures in order to be selected the one with the best generalizing ability. Actual recorded input and output data that influence long-term energy consumption were used in the training, validation and testing process. The developed ANN model is used for the prediction of 2005-2008, 2010, 2012 and 2015 Greek energy consumption. The produced ANN results for years 2005-2008 were compared with the results produced by a linear regression method, a support vector machine method and with real energy consumption records showing a great accuracy. The proposed approach can be useful in the effective implementation of energy policies, since accurate predictions of energy consumption affect the capital investment, the environmental quality, the revenue analysis, the market research management, while conserve at the same time the supply security. Furthermore it constitutes an accurate tool for the Greek long-term energy consumption prediction problem, which up today has not been faced effectively.

  19. Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: The impact factor of the journal in which a

  20. Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

    A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: the impact factor of the journal in which a

  1. Obesity and pregnancy: mechanisms of short term and long term adverse consequences for mother and child.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalano, Patrick M; Shankar, Kartik

    2017-02-08

    Obesity is the most common medical condition in women of reproductive age. Obesity during pregnancy has short term and long term adverse consequences for both mother and child. Obesity causes problems with infertility, and in early gestation it causes spontaneous pregnancy loss and congenital anomalies. Metabolically, obese women have increased insulin resistance in early pregnancy, which becomes manifest clinically in late gestation as glucose intolerance and fetal overgrowth. At term, the risk of cesarean delivery and wound complications is increased. Postpartum, obese women have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism, depression, and difficulty with breast feeding. Because 50-60% of overweight or obese women gain more than recommended by Institute of Medicine gestational weight guidelines, postpartum weight retention increases future cardiometabolic risks and prepregnancy obesity in subsequent pregnancies. Neonates of obese women have increased body fat at birth, which increases the risk of childhood obesity. Although there is no unifying mechanism responsible for the adverse perinatal outcomes associated with maternal obesity, on the basis of the available data, increased prepregnancy maternal insulin resistance and accompanying hyperinsulinemia, inflammation, and oxidative stress seem to contribute to early placental and fetal dysfunction. We will review the pathophysiology underlying these data and try to shed light on the specific underlying mechanisms. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  2. Remaining uncertainties in predicting long-term performance of nuclear waste glass from experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grambow, B.

    1994-01-01

    The current knowledge on the glass dissolution mechanism and the representation of glass dissolution concepts within overall repository performance assessment models are briefly summarized and uncertainties related to mechanism, radionuclide chemistry and parameters are discussed. Understanding of the major glass dissolution processes has been significantly increased in recent years. Long-term glass stability is related to the long-term maintenance of silica saturated conditions. The behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass has not been sufficiently and results do no yet allow meaningful predictions. Conserving long-term predictions of glass matrix dissolution as upper limit for radionuclide release can be made with sufficient confidence, however these estimations generally result in a situation where the barrier function of the glass is masked by the efficiency of the geologic barrier. Realistic long-term predictions may show that the borosilicate waste glass contributes to overall repository safety to a much larger extent than indicated by overconservatism. Today realistic predictions remain highly uncertain and much more research work is necessary. In particular, the long-term rate under silica saturated conditions needs to be understood and the behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass deserves more systematic investigations

  3. Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature Using Long Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qin; Wang, Hui; Dong, Junyu; Zhong, Guoqiang; Sun, Xin

    2017-10-01

    This letter adopts long short-term memory(LSTM) to predict sea surface temperature(SST), which is the first attempt, to our knowledge, to use recurrent neural network to solve the problem of SST prediction, and to make one week and one month daily prediction. We formulate the SST prediction problem as a time series regression problem. LSTM is a special kind of recurrent neural network, which introduces gate mechanism into vanilla RNN to prevent the vanished or exploding gradient problem. It has strong ability to model the temporal relationship of time series data and can handle the long-term dependency problem well. The proposed network architecture is composed of two kinds of layers: LSTM layer and full-connected dense layer. LSTM layer is utilized to model the time series relationship. Full-connected layer is utilized to map the output of LSTM layer to a final prediction. We explore the optimal setting of this architecture by experiments and report the accuracy of coastal seas of China to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, we also show its online updated characteristics.

  4. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  5. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

    2015-09-01

    It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

  6. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  7. The Identification of a Threshold of Long Work Hours for Predicting Elevated Risks of Adverse Health Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Sadie H; Pompeii, Lisa A; Gimeno Ruiz de Porras, David; Follis, Jack L; Roberts, Robert E

    2017-07-15

    Working long hours has been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, a definition of long work hours relative to adverse health risk has not been established. Repeated measures of work hours among approximately 2,000 participants from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1986-2011), conducted in the United States, were retrospectively analyzed to derive statistically optimized cutpoints of long work hours that best predicted three health outcomes. Work-hours cutpoints were assessed for model fit, calibration, and discrimination separately for the outcomes of poor self-reported general health, incident cardiovascular disease, and incident cancer. For each outcome, the work-hours threshold that best predicted increased risk was 52 hours per week or more for a minimum of 10 years. Workers exposed at this level had a higher risk of poor self-reported general health (relative risk (RR) = 1.28; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.53), cardiovascular disease (RR = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.63), and cancer (RR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.22, 2.17) compared with those working 35-51 hours per week for the same duration. This study provides the first health risk-based definition of long work hours. Further examination of the predictive power of this cutpoint on other health outcomes and in other study populations is needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

    2015-03-01

    China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

  9. Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P

    2017-09-27

    Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A prediction method for long-term behavior of prestressed concrete containment vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozaki, M.; Abe, T.; Watanabe, Y.; Kato, A.; Yamaguchi, T.; Yamamoto, M.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents results of studies on the long-term behavior of PCCVs at Taruga Unit No 2 and Ohi Unit No 3/4 power stations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the measured strain in the concrete and reduction force in the tendons, and to establish the prediction methods for long-term PCCVs behavior. Comparing the measured strains with those calculated due to creep and shrinkage of the concrete, those in contrast were investigated. Furthermore, the reduced tendon forces are calculated considering losses in elasticity, relaxation, creep and shrinkage. The measured reduction in the tendon forces is compared with the calculated. Considering changes in temperature and humidity, the measured strains and tendon forces were in good agreement with those calculated. From the above results, it was confirmed that the residual pre stresses in the PCCVs maintain the predicted values at the design stage, and that the prediction method of long-term behaviors has sufficient reliability. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

  11. Long-Term Prediction of Satellite Orbit Using Analytical Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Cheol Yoon

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available A long-term prediction algorithm of geostationary orbit was developed using the analytical method. The perturbation force models include geopotential upto fifth order and degree and luni-solar gravitation, and solar radiation pressure. All of the perturbation effects were analyzed by secular variations, short-period variations, and long-period variations for equinoctial elements such as the semi-major axis, eccentricity vector, inclination vector, and mean longitude of the satellite. Result of the analytical orbit propagator was compared with that of the cowell orbit propagator for the KOREASAT. The comparison indicated that the analytical solution could predict the semi-major axis with an accuarcy of better than ~35meters over a period of 3 month.

  12. Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, X.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tech-nique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with

  13. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Prediction of long-term behaviour for nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoesmith, D.W.; Ikeda, B.M.; King, F.; Sunder, S.

    1996-09-01

    The modelling procedures developed for the long-term prediction of the corrosion of used fuel and of titanium and copper nuclear waste containers are described. The corrosion behaviour of these materials changes with time as the conditions within the conceptual disposal vault evolve from an early warm, oxidizing phase to an indefinite period of cool, anoxic conditions. For the two candidate container materials, this evolution of conditions means that the containers will be initially susceptible to localized corrosion but that in the long-term, corrosion should be more general in nature. The propagation of the pitting of Cu and of the crevice corrosion of Ti alloys is modelled using statistical models. General corrosion processes are modelled deterministically. For the fuel, deterministic electrochemical models have been developed to predict the long-term dissolution rate of U0 2 . The corrosion behaviour of materials in the disposal vault can be influenced by reengineering the vault environment. For instance, increasing the areal loading of containers will produce higher vault temperatures resulting in more extensive drying of the porous backfill materials. The initiation of crevice corrosion on Ti may then be delayed, leading to longer container lifetimes. For copper containers, minimizing the amount Of O 2 initially trapped in the pores of the backfill, or adding reducing agents to consume this O 2 faster, will limit the extent of corrosion, permitting a reduction of the container wall thickness necessary for containment. (author). 55 refs., 19 figs

  15. Prediction on long-term mean and mean square pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, S; Lamb, R G; Seinfeld, J H

    1976-01-01

    The general problem of predicting long-term average (say yearly) pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere is formulated. The pollutant concentration can be viewed as a random process, the complete description of which requires knowledge of its probability density function, which is unknown. The mean concentration is the first moment of the concentration distribution, and at present there exist a number of models for predicting the long-term mean concentration of an inert pollutant. The second moment, or mean square concentration, indicates additional features of the distribution, such as the level of fluctuations about the mean. In the paper a model proposed by Lamb for the long-term mean concentration is reviewed, and a new model for prediction of the long-term mean square concentration of an inert air pollutant is derived. The properties and uses of the model are discussed, and the equations defining the model are presented in a form for direct application to an urban area.

  16. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness...... of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved...

  17. Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Applicability of short-term accelerated biofouling studies to predict long-term biofouling accumulation in reverse osmosis membrane systems

    KAUST Repository

    Sanawar, Huma

    2018-02-02

    Biofouling studies addressing biofouling control are mostly executed in short-term studies. It is unclear whether data collected from these experiments are representative for long-term biofouling as occurring in full-scale membrane systems. This study investigated whether short-term biofouling studies accelerated by biodegradable nutrient dosage to feed water were predictive for long-term biofouling development without nutrient dosage. Since the presence of a feed spacer has an strong effect on the degree of biofouling, this study employed six geometrically different feed spacers. Membrane fouling simulators (MFSs) were operated with the same (i) membrane, (ii) feed flow and (iii) feed water, but with feed spacers varying in geometry. For the short-term experiment, biofilm formation was enhanced by nutrient dosage to the MFS feed water, whereas no nutrient dosage was applied in the long-term experiment. Pressure drop development was monitored to characterize the extent of biofouling, while the accumulated viable biomass content at the end of the experimental run was quantified by adenosine triphosphate (ATP) measurements. Impact of feed spacer geometry on biofouling was compared for the short-term and long-term biofouling study. The results of the study revealed that the feed spacers exhibited the same biofouling behavior for (i) the short-term (9-d) study with nutrient dosage and (ii) the long-term (96-d) study without nutrient dosage. For the six different feed spacers, the accumulated viable biomass content (pg ATP.cm) was roughly the same, but the biofouling impact in terms of pressure drop increase in time was significantly different. The biofouling impact ranking of the six feed spacers was the same for the short-term and long-term biofouling studies. Therefore, it can be concluded that short-term accelerated biofouling studies in MFSs are a representative and suitable approach for the prediction of biofouling in membrane filtration systems after long-term

  19. A computational environment for long-term multi-feature and multi-algorithm seizure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, C A; Direito, B; Costa, R P; Valderrama, M; Feldwisch-Drentrup, H; Nikolopoulos, S; Le Van Quyen, M; Schelter, B; Dourado, A

    2010-01-01

    The daily life of epilepsy patients is constrained by the possibility of occurrence of seizures. Until now, seizures cannot be predicted with sufficient sensitivity and specificity. Most of the seizure prediction studies have been focused on a small number of patients, and frequently assuming unrealistic hypothesis. This paper adopts the view that for an appropriate development of reliable predictors one should consider long-term recordings and several features and algorithms integrated in one software tool. A computational environment, based on Matlab (®), is presented, aiming to be an innovative tool for seizure prediction. It results from the need of a powerful and flexible tool for long-term EEG/ECG analysis by multiple features and algorithms. After being extracted, features can be subjected to several reduction and selection methods, and then used for prediction. The predictions can be conducted based on optimized thresholds or by applying computational intelligence methods. One important aspect is the integrated evaluation of the seizure prediction characteristic of the developed predictors.

  20. Prediction of long-term precipitate evolution in austenitic heat-resistant steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shim, Jae-Hyeok; Jung, Woo-Sang; Cho, Young Whan [Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Materials/Devices Div.; Kozeschnik, Ernst [Vienna Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. of Materials Science and Technology

    2010-07-01

    Numerical prediction of the long-term precipitate evolution in five different austenitic heat-resistant stainless steels, NF709, Super304H, Sanicro25, CF8C-PLUS and HTUPS has been carried out. MX and M{sub 23}C{sub 6} are predicted to remain as major precipitates during long-term aging in these steels. The addition of 3 wt% Cu produces very fine Cu-rich precipitates during aging in Super304H and Sanicro25. It is found that the amount of Z phase start to increase remarkably between 1,000 and 10,000 hours of aging at the expense of MX precipitates in the steels containing a high nitrogen content. However, the growth rate of Z phase is relatively slow and its average size reaches at most a few tens of nanometers after 100,000 hours of aging at 700 C, compared with 9-12% Cr ferritic/martensitic heat-resistant steels. The predicted precipitation sequence and precipitate size during aging are in general agreement with experimental observations. (orig.)

  1. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term...

  2. Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spruyt, A.; Lemaigre, V.; Salhi, B.; van Gucht, D.; Tibboel, H.; van Bockstaele, B.; de Houwer, J.; van Meerbeeck, J.; Nackaerts, K.

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. Objectives: The main objective of

  3. Transient post-operative atrial fibrillation predicts short and long term adverse events following CABG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Matthew; Galla, John; Blackstone, Eugene; Kapadia, Samir R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the relationship between the development of transient post-operative atrial fibrillation (TPOAF) following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and risk of long-term mortality. Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) following CABG is common and associated with increased morbidity and mortality in the perioperative period. However the impact of TPOAF and its management on long-term morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG surgery remains unclear. Methods The Cleveland Clinic Cardiovascular Information Registry was used to identify 5,205 consecutive patients who underwent CABG between January 1993 and December 2005. Patients with TPOAF (n=1,490) were compared to those without post-operative AF (n=3,645) for the endpoints of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke at 1 year. Results Overall rates of 1-year mortality, MI and stroke were 3.7%, 0.8%, and 2.6%, respectively. Patients with TPOAF had an increased risk of death at 1 year as compared to patients without POAF (6.4% vs. 2.7%; P<0.001), but there was not an increased risk of stroke or MI. Multivariate analysis identified TPOAF as an independent predictor of death at 1 year (HR 1.89, 95% CI, 1.42-2.53; P<0.001). After propensity matching, patients who developed TPOAF experienced a significantly increased risk of death compared with those without TPOAF (HR 1.96, 95% CI, 1.34-2.86; P<0.001). Conclusions In patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG, the presence of TPOAF identifies a subgroup of patients at increased risk for all-cause mortality. Future prospective studies to determine potential beneficial interventions in this large population are warranted. PMID:25414823

  4. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

  5. Hanford grout: predicting long-term performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewart, G.H.; Mitchell, D.H.; Treat, R.L.; McMakin, A.H.

    1987-01-01

    Grouted disposal is being planned for the low-level portion of liquid radioactive wastes at the Hanford site in Washington state. The performance of the disposal system must be such that it will protect people and the environment for thousands of years after disposal. To predict whether a specific grout disposal system will comply with existing and foreseen regulations, a performance assessment (PA) is performed. Long-term PAs are conducted for a range of performance conditions. Performance assessment is an inexact science. Quantifying projected impacts is especially difficult when only scant data exist on the behavior of certain components of the disposal system over thousands of years. To develop defensible results, we are honing the models and obtaining experimental data. The combination of engineered features and PA refinements is being used to ensure that Hanford grout will meet its principal goal: to protect people and the environment in the future

  6. Perceived stress and anhedonia predict short-and long-term weight change, respectively, in healthy adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Mostafa; Thearle, Marie S; Krakoff, Jonathan; Gluck, Marci E

    2016-04-01

    Perceived stress; emotional eating; anhedonia; depression and dietary restraint, hunger, and disinhibition have been studied as risk factors for obesity. However, the majority of studies have been cross-sectional and the directionality of these relationships remains unclear. In this longitudinal study, we assess their impact on future weight change. Psychological predictors of weight change in short- (6month) and long-term (>1year) periods were studied in 65 lean and obese individuals in two cohorts. Subjects participated in studies of food intake and metabolism that did not include any type of medication or weight loss interventions. They completed psychological questionnaires at baseline and weight change was monitored at follow-up visits. At six months, perceived stress predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.23, P=0.02). There was a significant interaction (r(2)=.38, P=0.009) between perceived stress and positive emotional eating, such that higher scores in both predicted greater weight gain, while those with low stress but high emotional eating scores lost weight. For long-term, higher anhedonia scores predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.24, P=0.04). Depression moderated these effects such that higher scores in both predicted weight gain but higher depression and lower anhedonia scores predicted weight loss. There are different behavioral determinants for short- and long-term weight change. Targeting perceived stress may help with short-term weight loss while depression and anhedonia may be better targets for long-term weight regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

    2016-10-15

    The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

    Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

  9. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qijie

    2015-08-01

    The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

  10. Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

    Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

  11. Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

  12. Plasma stromal cell-derived factor 1α/CXCL12 level predicts long-term adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghasemzadeh, Nima; Hritani, Abdul Wahab; De Staercke, Christine; Eapen, Danny J; Veledar, Emir; Al Kassem, Hatem; Khayata, Mohamed; Zafari, A Maziar; Sperling, Laurence; Hooper, Craig; Vaccarino, Viola; Mavromatis, Kreton; Quyyumi, Arshed A

    2015-01-01

    Stromal derived factor-1α/CXCL12 is a chemoattractant responsible for homing of progenitor cells to ischemic tissues. We aimed to investigate the association of plasma CXCL12 with long-term cardiovascular outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). 785 patients aged: 63 ± 12 undergoing coronary angiography were independently enrolled into discovery (N = 186) and replication (N = 599) cohorts. Baseline levels of plasma CXCL12 were measured using Quantikine CXCL12 ELISA assay (R&D systems). Patients were followed for cardiovascular death and/or myocardial infarction (MI) for a mean of 2.6 yrs. Cox proportional hazard was used to determine independent predictors of cardiovascular death/MI. The incidence of cardiovascular death/MI was 13% (N = 99). High CXCL12 level based on best discriminatory threshold derived from the ROC analysis predicted risk of cardiovascular death/MI (HR = 4.81, p = 1 × 10(-6)) independent of traditional risk factors in the pooled cohort. Addition of CXCL12 to a baseline model was associated with a significant improvement in c-statistic (AUC: 0.67-0.73, p = 0.03). Addition of CXCL12 was associated with correct risk reclassification of 40% of events and 10.5% of non-events. Similarly for the outcome of cardiovascular death, the addition of the CXCL12 to the baseline model was associated with correct reclassification of 20.7% of events and 9% of non-events. These results were replicated in two independent cohorts. Plasma CXCL12 level is a strong independent predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with CAD and improves risk reclassification. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Long-term glucocorticoid concentrations as a risk factor for childhood obesity and adverse body-fat distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noppe, G; van den Akker, E L T; de Rijke, Y B; Koper, J W; Jaddoe, V W; van Rossum, E F C

    2016-10-01

    Childhood obesity is an important risk factor for premature development of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) at adulthood. There is need for understanding of the mechanisms underlying the MetS and obesity. Patients with Cushing's disease suffer from similar metabolic complications, leading to the hypothesis that inter-individual cortisol variation may contribute to the onset of obesity. In addition, glucocorticoid receptor (GR)-gene polymorphisms resulting in differential glucocorticoid (GC) sensitivity, have been associated with an adverse metabolic profile. To study associations of GC levels in scalp hair, as a marker of long-term systemic GC concentrations, and genetically determined GC sensitivity with obesity and body-fat distribution in children. We performed a cross-sectional study of cortisol and cortisone concentrations over a 3-month period, measured by LC-MS/MS (Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry) in hair of 3019 6-year-old children participating in the Generation R study. Genotyping of GR-gene polymorphisms was performed. Of all children, 4.3% was obese and 13.4% overweight. Cortisol was significantly associated with risk of obesity (odd ratio (OR): 9.4 (3.3-26.9)) and overweight (OR: 1.4 (1.0-2.0)). Cortisone was associated with risk of obesity (OR: 1.9 (1.0-3.5)). Cortisol and cortisone were significantly positively associated with body mass index, fat mass (FM) index and android/gynecoid FM ratio. GR polymorphisms were not associated with adiposity parameters. Long-term cortisol concentrations are strongly associated with an increased risk of childhood obesity and adverse body-fat distribution. Future research may reveal whether these are causal relations and may be a target for therapy.

  14. Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruyt, Adriaan; Lemaigre, Valentine; Salhi, Bihiyga; Van Gucht, Dinska; Tibboel, Helen; Van Bockstaele, Bram; De Houwer, Jan; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; Nackaerts, Kristiaan

    2015-07-01

    It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues and long-term relapse in abstaining smokers. Implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues were assessed by means of the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and the evaluative priming task (EPT). Both measures were completed by a group of smokers who volunteered to quit smoking (patient group) and a group of nonsmokers (control group). Participants in the patient group completed these measures twice: once prior to smoking cessation and once after smoking cessation. Relapse was assessed by means of short telephone survey, 6 months after completion of the second test session. EPT scores obtained prior to smoking cessation were related to long-term relapse and correlated with self-reported nicotine dependence as well as daily cigarette consumption. In contrast, none of the behavioral outcome measures were found to correlate with the IAT scores. These findings corroborate the idea that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues are critically involved in long-term relapse. A potential explanation for the divergent findings obtained with the IAT and EPT is provided.

  15. Prostate-specific antigen and long-term prediction of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørsted, David Dynnes; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Jensen, Gorm B

    2012-01-01

    It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population.......It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population....

  16. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  17. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Mei [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Singh, Vijay P. [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

    2016-07-15

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  18. Keep going in adversity – using a resilience perspective to understand the narratives of long-term social assistance recipients in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marttila Anneli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction In Sweden, means-tested social assistance serves as a temporary, last resort safety net. However, increasing numbers of people are receiving it for longer periods and about a third has assistance for more than a year. The aim of this study was to explore the ways social assistance recipients manage long lasting adversity and their roles as active, rather than passive, agents in this process, using a resilience perspective. Method The study is based on thirteen in-depth interviews with long-term social assistance recipients from diverse areas in Stockholm County. The interviews were guided by narrative inquiry to interpret and construct stories of experiences and are part of a larger qualitative study exploring experiences of living on social assistance in Sweden. Results Experiences of cumulative adversity during many years compounded recipients’ difficulties in finding ways out of hardship. They had different strategies to deal with adversities, and many had underlying “core problems”, including mental health problems, which had not been properly resolved. Recipients’ showed resistance in adverse situations. Some made attempts to find ways out of hardship, whereas others struggled mainly to achieve a sense of mastering life. They received important support from individual professionals in different authorities, but mostly the help from the welfare system was fragmented. Conclusions Social assistance recipients in this study demonstrated agency in ways of managing long lasting difficulties, sometimes caused by “core problems”, which were often accumulated into complex difficulties. Resilience was about keeping going and resisting these difficulties. To find ways out of social assistance required help from different welfare agencies and professionals and was hindered by the fragmentation of services. This study shows that there is a need for more long-term personalised, comprehensive support, including

  19. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

    2012-01-01

    Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  20. Early-life adversity-induced long-term epigenetic programming associated with early onset of chronic physical aggression: Studies in humans and animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chistiakov, Dimitry A; Chekhonin, Vladimir P

    2017-06-05

    To examine whether chronic physical aggression (CPA) in adulthood can be epigenetically programmed early in life due to exposure to early-life adversity. Literature search of public databases such as PubMed/MEDLINE and Scopus. Children/adolescents susceptible for CPA and exposed to early-life abuse fail to efficiently cope with stress that in turn results in the development of CPA later in life. This phenomenon was observed in humans and animal models of aggression. The susceptibility to aggression is a complex trait that is regulated by the interaction between environmental and genetic factors. Epigenetic mechanisms mediate this interaction. Subjects exposed to stress early in life exhibited long-term epigenetic programming that can influence their behaviour in adulthood. This programming affects expression of many genes not only in the brain but also in other systems such as neuroendocrine and immune. The propensity to adult CPA behaviour in subjects experienced to early-life adversity is mediated by epigenetic programming that involves long-term systemic epigenetic alterations in a whole genome.

  1. Early Posttransplant Tryptophan Metabolism Predicts Long-term Outcome of Human Kidney Transplantation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vavrincova-Yaghi, Diana; Seelen, Marc A.; Kema, Ido P.; Deelman, Leo E.; Heuvel, van den Marius; Breukelman, Henk; Van den Eynde, Benoit J.; Henning, Rob H.; van Goor, Harry; Sandovici, Maria

    Background. Chronic transplant dysfunction (CTD) is the leading cause of long-term loss of the renal allograft. So far, no single test is available to reliably predict the risk for CTD. Monitoring of tryptophan (trp) metabolism through indoleamine 2.3-dioxygenase (IDO) has been previously proposed

  2. A new image for long-term care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wager, Richard; Creelman, William

    2004-04-01

    To counter widely held negative images of long-term care, managers in the industry should implement quality-improvement initiatives that include six key strategies: Manage the expectations of residents and their families. Address customers' concerns early. Build long-term customer satisfaction. Allocate resources to achieve exceptional outcomes in key areas. Respond to adverse events with compassion. Reinforce the facility's credibility.

  3. Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chia-Nan; Chen, Rong-Her; Chen, Kuo-Sheng

    2006-02-01

    The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

  4. Uncovering Camouflage: Amygdala Activation Predicts Long-Term Memory of Induced Perceptual Insight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludmer, Rachel; Dudai, Yadin; Rubin, Nava

    2012-01-01

    What brain mechanisms underlie learning of new knowledge from single events? We studied encoding in long-term memory of a unique type of one-shot experience, induced perceptual insight. While undergoing an fMRI brain scan, participants viewed degraded images of real-world pictures where the underlying objects were hard to recognize (‘camouflage’), followed by brief exposures to the original images (‘solution’), which led to induced insight (“Aha!”). A week later, participants’ memory was tested; a solution image was classified as ‘remembered’ if detailed perceptual knowledge was elicited from the camouflage image alone. During encoding, subsequently remembered images enjoyed higher activity in mid-level visual cortex and medial frontal cortex, but most pronouncedly in the amygdala, whose activity could be used to predict which solutions will remain in long-term memory. Our findings extend the known roles of amygdala in memory to include promoting of long-term memory of the sudden reorganization of internal representations. PMID:21382558

  5. A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

  6. Differential maps, difference maps, interpolated maps, and long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talman, R.

    1988-06-01

    Mapping techniques may be thought to be attractive for the long term prediction of motion in accelerators, especially because a simple map can approximately represent an arbitrarily complicated lattice. The intention of this paper is to develop prejudices as to the validity of such methods by applying them to a simple, exactly solveable, example. It is shown that a numerical interpolation map, such as can be generated in the accelerator tracking program TEAPOT, predicts the evolution more accurately than an analytically derived differential map of the same order. Even so, in the presence of ''appreciable'' nonlinearity, it is shown to be impractical to achieve ''accurate'' prediction beyond some hundreds of cycles of oscillation. This suggests that the value of nonlinear maps is restricted to the parameterization of only the ''leading'' deviation from linearity. 41 refs., 6 figs

  7. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

  8. Inflammatory markers in relation to long-term air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mostafavi Montazeri, Nahid|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/375290575; Vlaanderen, Jelle|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/31403160X; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Beelen, Rob|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/30483100X; Modig, Lars; Palli, Domenico; Bergdahl, Ingvar A; Vineis, Paolo; Hoek, Gerard|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/069553475; Kyrtopoulos, Soterios Α; Vermeulen, Roel|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/216532620

    Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution can lead to chronic health effects such as cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Systemic inflammation has been hypothesized as a putative biological mechanism contributing to these adverse health effects. We evaluated the effect of long-term

  9. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smolen

    Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  10. Prediction of long-term crustal movement for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Tabei, Kazuto; Koide, Hitoshi; Tashiro, Toshiharu

    2000-01-01

    Long-term stability of the geological environment is essential for the safe geological disposal of radioactive waste, for which it is necessary to predict the crustal movement during an assessment period. As a case study, a numerical analysis method for the prediction of crustal movement in Japan is proposed. A three-dimensional elastic analysis by FEM for the geological block structure of the Kinki region and the Awaji-Rokko area is presented. Stability analysis for a disposal cavern is also investigated. (author)

  11. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  12. Predicting long-term moisture contents of earthen covers at uranium mill tailings sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gee, G.W.; Nielson, K.K.; Rogers, V.C.

    1984-09-01

    The three methods for long-term moisture prediction covered in this report are: estimates from water retention (permanent wilting point) data, correlation with climate and soil type, and detailed model simulation. The test results have shown: soils vary greatly in residual moisture. Expected long-term moisture saturation ratios (based on generalized soil characteristics) range from 0.2 to 0.8 for soils ranging in texture from sand to clay, respectively. These values hold for noncompacted field soils. Measured radon diffusion coefficients for soils at 15-bar water contents ranged from 5.0E-2 cm 2 /s to 5.0E-3 cm 2 /s for sands and clays, respectively, at typical field densities. In contrast, fine-textured pit-run earthen materials, subjected to optimum compaction (>85% Proctor density) and dried to the 15-bar water content, ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 moisture saturation. Compacted pit-run soils at these moisture contents exhibited radon diffusion coefficients as low as 3.0E-4 cm 2 /s. The residual moisture saturation for cover soils is not known since no engineered barrier has been in place for more than a few years. A comparison of methods for predicting moisture saturation indicates that model simulations are useful for predicting effects of climatic changes on residual soil moisture, but that long-term moisture also can be predicted with some degree of confidence using generalized soil properties or empirical correlations based both on soils and climatic information. The optimal soil cover design will likely include more than one layer of soil. A two-layer system using a thick (1-m minimum) plant root zone of uncompacted soil placed over a moistened, tightly compacted fine-textured soil is recommended. This design concept has been tested successfully at the Grand Junction, Colorado, tailings piles

  13. Prediction of the Long Term Cooling Performance for the 3-Pin Fuel Test Loop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. K.; Chi, D. Y.; Sim, B. S.; Park, K. N.; Ahn, S. H.; Lee, J. M.; Lee, C. Y.; Kim, H. R

    2005-12-15

    In the long term cooling phase that the emergency cooling water injection ends, the performance of the residual heat removal for the 3-pin fuel test loop has been predicted by a simplified heat transfer model. In the long term cooling phase the residual heat is 1323W for PWR fuel test mode and 1449W for CANDU fuel test mode. The each residual heat is assumed as 2% of the fission power of the test fuel used in the anticipated operational occurrence and design basis accident analyses. The each fission power used for the analyses is 105% of the rated fission power in the normal operation. In the long term cooling phase the residual heat is removed to the HANARO pool through the double pressure vessels of the in-pile test section. Saturate pooling boiling is assumed on the test fuel and condensation heat transfer is expected on the inner wall of the fuel carrier and the flow divider. Natural convection heat transfer on a heated vertical wall is also assumed on the outer wall of the outer pressure vessel. The conduction heat transfer is only considered in the gap between the double pressure vessels charged with neon gas and in the downcomer filled with coolant. The heat transfer rate between the coolant temperature of 152 .deg. C in the in-pile test section and the water temperature of 45 .deg. C in the HANARO pool is predicted as about 1666W. The 152 .deg. C is the saturate temperature of the coolant pressure predicted from the MARS code. The cooling capacity of 1666W is greater than the residual heats of 1323W and 1449W. Consequently the long term cooling performance of the 3-pin fuel test loop is sufficient for the anticipated operational occurrences and design basis accidents.

  14. Serum YKL-40 predicts long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harutyunyan, Marina; Gøtze, Jens P; Winkel, Per

    2013-01-01

    We investigated whether the inflammatory biomarker YKL-40 could improve the long-term prediction of death made by common risk factors plus high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal-pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD)....

  15. Antioxidant defenses predict long-term survival in a passerine bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Saino

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal and pathological processes entail the production of oxidative substances that can damage biological molecules and harm physiological functions. Organisms have evolved complex mechanisms of antioxidant defense, and any imbalance between oxidative challenge and antioxidant protection can depress fitness components and accelerate senescence. While the role of oxidative stress in pathogenesis and aging has been studied intensively in humans and model animal species under laboratory conditions, there is a dearth of knowledge on its role in shaping life-histories of animals under natural selection regimes. Yet, given the pervasive nature and likely fitness consequences of oxidative damage, it can be expected that the need to secure efficient antioxidant protection is powerful in molding the evolutionary ecology of animals. Here, we test whether overall antioxidant defense varies with age and predicts long-term survival, using a wild population of a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, as a model.Plasma antioxidant capacity (AOC of breeding individuals was measured using standard protocols and annual survival was monitored over five years (2006-2010 on a large sample of selection episodes. AOC did not covary with age in longitudinal analyses after discounting the effect of selection. AOC positively predicted annual survival independently of sex. Individuals were highly consistent in their relative levels of AOC, implying the existence of additive genetic variance and/or environmental (including early maternal components consistently acting through their lives.Using longitudinal data we showed that high levels of antioxidant protection positively predict long-term survival in a wild animal population. Present results are therefore novel in disclosing a role for antioxidant protection in determining survival under natural conditions, strongly demanding for more longitudinal eco-physiological studies of life-histories in

  16. Percutaneous transluminal angioplasty of malfunctioning Brescia-Cimino arteriovenous fistula: analysis of factors adversely affecting long-term patency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Koji; Hirota, Shozo; Sugimura, Kazuro; Higashino, Takanori; Kuwata, Yoichiro; Imanaka, Kazufumi

    2003-01-01

    Our objective was to identify the factors adversely affecting long-term patency after percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) for hemodialysis Brescia-Cimino arteriovenous fistulas. Between November 1995 and March 2000, 91 PTA procedures were performed on 50 patients with 57 Brescia-Cimino fistulas. A retrospective study based on the chart review was performed. The initial technical success rate for all procedures and the primary and secondary patency rates for all fistulas were calculated. Regarding fistulas successfully maintained by the primary PTA, the primary and secondary patency rates were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method between two patient groups. They were classified on the basis of several factors, including age (older, over 70 years, and younger group), age of the fistulas (older, over 6 months, and younger group), with or without diabetes mellitus (DM), solitary or multiple lesions, long or short segment lesion, stenosis or occlusion, and with or without arterial and/or anastomotic lesions. Initial technical success rates for all procedures and fistulas were 91.2 and 89.5%, respectively. Cumulative primary and secondary patency rates at 1 year were 47.3 and 67.3%, respectively. In the comparative study, the secondary patency rate for the older group was lower than that of the younger group with statistical significance (p =0.029). The higher age is the only factor that reduces the long-term patency rate after PTA. (orig.)

  17. Interstitial lung disease caused by TS-1: a case of long-term drug retention as a fatal adverse reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Joong-Min; Hwang, In Gyu; Suh, Suk-Won; Chi, Kyong-Choun

    2011-12-01

    TS-1 is an oral anti-cancer agent for gastric cancer with a high response rate and low toxicity. We report a case of long-term drug retention of TS-1 causing interstitial lung disease (ILD) as a fatal adverse reaction. A 65-year-old woman underwent a total gastrectomy with pathologic confirmation of gastric adenocarcinoma. She received 6 cycles of TS-1 and low-dose cisplatin for post-operative adjuvant chemotherapy followed by single-agent maintenance therapy with TS-1. After 8 months, the patient complained of a productive cough with sputum and mild dyspnea. A pulmonary evaluation revealed diffuse ILD in the lung fields, bilaterally. In spite of discontinuing chemotherapy and the administration of corticosteroids, the pulmonary symptoms did not improve, and the patient died of pulmonary failure. TS-1-induced ILD can be caused by long-term drug retention that alters the lung parenchyma irreversibly, the outcome of which can be life-threatening. Pulmonary evaluation for early detection of disease is recommended.

  18. Conditions of long-term success in a lifestyle intervention for overweight and obese youths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fröhlich, Georg; Pott, Wilfried; Albayrak, Özgür; Hebebrand, Johannes; Pauli-Pott, Ursula

    2011-10-01

    Childhood lifestyle interventions usually involve the families. However, knowledge of family characteristics that promote or constrain a child's weight-reduction outcome is limited. Candidates for such factors might be family characteristics that have proven to be associated with social adjustment (development) in childhood. Thus, we analyzed whether family adversity, maternal depression, and attachment insecurity predict long-term success in children's weight reduction. Participants in the study were 111 parent-child dyads with overweight and obese children/adolescents (BMI mean: 29.07 [SD: 4.7] [range: 21.4-44.9]; BMI SD score mean: 2.43 [SD: 0.44] [range: 1.31-3.54]) aged between 7 and 15 years. The families took part in a best-practice lifestyle intervention of 1 year's duration. A longitudinal analysis with 3 assessment waves (baseline, conclusion, 1-year follow-up) was conducted. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that long-term success (at least 5% weight reduction by the 1-year follow-up) versus failure (dropping out or less weight reduction) was significantly predicted by the set of psychosocial variables (family adversity, maternal depression, and attachment insecurity) when we controlled for familial obesity, preintervention overweight, age, and gender of the index child and parental educational level. Maternal depression proved to be the best predictor. Maintenance of weight reduction between the conclusion of the program and the 1-year-follow-up was also predicted by the set of psychosocial variables. Maternal insecure-anxious attachment attitudes best predicted this criterion. Although cross-validation is required, our results are the first evidence for proximal and distal family characteristics linked to long-term weight-reduction outcomes. The results suggest a need to create tailored intervention modules that address the difficulties of these families.

  19. Trophic position and metabolic rate predict the long-term decay process of radioactive cesium in fish: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideyuki Doi

    Full Text Available Understanding the long-term behavior of radionuclides in organisms is important for estimating possible associated risks to human beings and ecosystems. As radioactive cesium (¹³⁷Cs can be accumulated in organisms and has a long physical half-life, it is very important to understand its long-term decay in organisms; however, the underlying mechanisms determining the decay process are little known. We performed a meta-analysis to collect published data on the long-term ¹³⁷Cs decay process in fish species to estimate biological (metabolic rate and ecological (trophic position, habitat, and diet type influences on this process. From the linear mixed models, we found that 1 trophic position could predict the day of maximum ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish; and 2 the metabolic rate of the fish species and environmental water temperature could predict ecological half-lives and decay rates for fish species. These findings revealed that ecological and biological traits are important to predict the long-term decay process of ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish.

  20. Taylor Series-Based Long-Term Creep-Life Prediction of Alloy 617

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Woo Gon; Kim, Yong Wan; Park, Jae Young; Kim, Soen Jin

    2010-01-01

    In this study, a Taylor series (T-S) model based on the Arrhenius, McVetty, and Monkman-Grant equations was developed using a mathematical analysis. In order to reduce fitting errors, the McVetty equation was transformed by considering the first three terms of the Taylor series equation. The model parameters were accurately determined by a statistical technique of maximum likelihood estimation, and this model was applied to the creep data of alloy 617. The T-S model results showed better agreement with the experimental data than other models such as the Eno, exponential, and L-M models. In particular, the T-S model was converted into an isothermal Taylor series (IT-S) model that can predict the creep strength at a given temperature. It was identified that the estimations obtained using the converted ITS model was better than that obtained using the T-S model for predicting the long-term creep life of alloy 617

  1. Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawar, R.

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management

  2. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  3. Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

    2017-12-01

    Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13-24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

    2017-01-01

    Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13–24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). - Highlights: • Regional air pollutant concentration shows an obvious spatiotemporal correlation. • Our prediction model presents superior performance. • Climate data and metadata can significantly

  5. Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention in patients without diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekmekci, Ahmet; Cicek, Gokhan; Uluganyan, Mahmut; Gungor, Baris; Osman, Faizel; Ozcan, Kazim Serhan; Bozbay, Mehmet; Ertas, Gokhan; Zencirci, Aycan; Sayar, Nurten; Eren, Mehmet

    2014-02-01

    Admission hyperglycemia is associated with high inhospital and long-term adverse events in patients that undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We aimed to evaluate whether hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality. We prospectively analyzed 503 consecutive patients. The patients were divided into tertiles according to the admission glucose levels. Tertile I: glucose 145 mg/dL (n = 169). Inhospital mortality was 0 in tertile I, 2 in tertile II, and 9 in tertile III (P < .02). Cardiogenic shock occurred more frequently in tertile III compared to tertiles I and II (10% vs 4.1% and 0.6%, respectively, P = .01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that patients in tertile III had significantly higher risk of inhospital major adverse cardiac events compared to patients in tertile I (odds ratio: 9.55, P < .02). Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital adverse cardiac events in mortality and acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in patients that underwent primary PCI.

  6. Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Månsson, K N T; Frick, A; Boraxbekk, C-J; Marquand, A F; Williams, S C R; Carlbring, P; Andersson, G; Furmark, T

    2015-03-17

    Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge. This study aimed at assessing neural predictors of long-term treatment outcome in participants with SAD 1 year after completion of Internet-delivered CBT (iCBT). Twenty-six participants diagnosed with SAD underwent iCBT including attention bias modification for a total of 13 weeks. Support vector machines (SVMs), a supervised pattern recognition method allowing predictions at the individual level, were trained to separate long-term treatment responders from nonresponders based on blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses to self-referential criticism. The Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale was the main instrument to determine treatment response at the 1-year follow-up. Results showed that the proportion of long-term responders was 52% (12/23). From multivariate BOLD responses in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) together with the amygdala, we were able to predict long-term response rate of iCBT with an accuracy of 92% (confidence interval 95% 73.2-97.6). This activation pattern was, however, not predictive of improvement in the continuous Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale-Self-report version. Follow-up psychophysiological interaction analyses revealed that lower dACC-amygdala coupling was associated with better long-term treatment response. Thus, BOLD response patterns in the fear-expressing dACC-amygdala regions were highly predictive of long-term treatment outcome of iCBT, and the initial coupling between these regions differentiated long-term responders from nonresponders. The SVM-neuroimaging approach could be of particular clinical value as it allows for accurate prediction of treatment outcome at the level of the individual.

  7. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  9. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10 3 -10 5 years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., open-quotes natural analoguesclose quotes) provide perhaps the only means of partial open-quotes validation,close quotes as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10 3 -10 8 years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the open-quotes validationclose quotes of performance assessments

  10. Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

    2017-04-01

    Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

  11. Reduced Right Ventricular Function Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Re-Hospitalization after Cardiac Surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leela K Lella

    Full Text Available The significance of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF, independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG and valve procedures remains unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the significance of abnormal RVEF by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR, independent of LVEF in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve surgery.From 2007 to 2009, 109 consecutive patients (mean age, 66 years; 38% female were referred for pre-operative CMR. Abnormal RVEF and LVEF were considered 30 days outcomes included, cardiac re-hospitalization, worsening congestive heart failure and mortality. Mean clinical follow up was 14 months.Forty-eight patients had reduced RVEF (mean 25% and 61 patients had normal RVEF (mean 50% (p<0.001. Fifty-four patients had reduced LVEF (mean 30% and 55 patients had normal LVEF (mean 59% (p<0.001. Patients with reduced RVEF had a higher incidence of long-term cardiac re-hospitalization vs. patients with normal RVEF (31% vs.13%, p<0.05. Abnormal RVEF was a predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization (HR 3.01 [CI 1.5-7.9], p<0.03. Reduced LVEF did not influence long-term cardiac re-hospitalization.Abnormal RVEF is a stronger predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization than abnormal LVEF in patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve procedures.

  12. Dosimetric Inhomogeneity Predicts for Long-Term Breast Pain After Breast-Conserving Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mak, Kimberley S. [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chen, Yu-Hui; Catalano, Paul J. [Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Punglia, Rinaa S.; Wong, Julia S.; Truong, Linh [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Bellon, Jennifer R., E-mail: jbellon@LROC.harvard.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Purpose: The objective of this cross-sectional study was to characterize long-term breast pain in patients undergoing breast-conserving surgery and radiation (BCT) and to identify predictors of this pain. Methods and Materials: We identified 355 eligible patients with Tis-T2N0M0 breast cancer who underwent BCT in 2007 to 2011, without recurrent disease. A questionnaire derived from the Late Effects Normal Tissue Task Force (LENT) Subjective, Objective, Management, Analytic (SOMA) scale was mailed with 7 items detailing the severity, frequency, duration, and impact of ipsilateral breast pain over the previous 2 weeks. A logistic regression model identified predictors of long-term breast pain based on questionnaire responses and patient, disease, and treatment characteristics. Results: The questionnaire response rate was 80% (n=285). One hundred thirty-five patients (47%) reported pain in the treated breast, with 19 (14%) having pain constantly or at least daily; 15 (11%) had intense pain. The pain interfered with daily activities in 11 patients (8%). Six patients (4%) took analgesics for breast pain. Fourteen (10%) thought that the pain affected their quality of life. On univariable analysis, volume of breast tissue treated to ≥105% of the prescribed dose (odds ratio [OR] 1.001 per cc, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.000-1.002; P=.045), volume treated to ≥110% (OR 1.009 per cc, 95% CI 1.002-1.016; P=.012), hormone therapy use (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.12-3.39; P=.02), and other sites of pain (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.05-3.07; P=.03) predicted for long-term breast pain. On multivariable analysis, volume ≥110% (OR 1.01 per cc, 95% CI 1.003-1.017; P=.007), shorter time since treatment (OR 0.98 per month, 95% CI 0.96-0.998; P=.03), and hormone therapy (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.05-3.25; P=.03) were independent predictors of pain. Conclusion: Long-term breast pain was common after BCT. Although nearly half of patients had pain, most considered it tolerable. Dosimetric inhomogeneity

  13. Improving protein disorder prediction by deep bidirectional long short-term memory recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Jack; Yang, Yuedong; Paliwal, Kuldip; Zhou, Yaoqi

    2017-03-01

    Capturing long-range interactions between structural but not sequence neighbors of proteins is a long-standing challenging problem in bioinformatics. Recently, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have significantly improved the accuracy of speech and image classification problems by remembering useful past information in long sequential events. Here, we have implemented deep bidirectional LSTM recurrent neural networks in the problem of protein intrinsic disorder prediction. The new method, named SPOT-Disorder, has steadily improved over a similar method using a traditional, window-based neural network (SPINE-D) in all datasets tested without separate training on short and long disordered regions. Independent tests on four other datasets including the datasets from critical assessment of structure prediction (CASP) techniques and >10 000 annotated proteins from MobiDB, confirmed SPOT-Disorder as one of the best methods in disorder prediction. Moreover, initial studies indicate that the method is more accurate in predicting functional sites in disordered regions. These results highlight the usefulness combining LSTM with deep bidirectional recurrent neural networks in capturing non-local, long-range interactions for bioinformatics applications. SPOT-disorder is available as a web server and as a standalone program at: http://sparks-lab.org/server/SPOT-disorder/index.php . j.hanson@griffith.edu.au or yuedong.yang@griffith.edu.au or yaoqi.zhou@griffith.edu.au. Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  14. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  15. Predicting Discharge to Institutional Long-Term Care After Stroke: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Jennifer K; Ferguson, Eilidh E C; Barugh, Amanda J; Walesby, Katherine E; MacLullich, Alasdair M J; Shenkin, Susan D; Quinn, Terry J

    2018-01-01

    Stroke is a leading cause of disability worldwide, and a significant proportion of stroke survivors require long-term institutional care. Understanding who cannot be discharged home is important for health and social care planning. Our aim was to establish predictive factors for discharge to institutional care after hospitalization for stroke. We registered and conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42015023497) of observational studies. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL Plus to February 2017. Quantitative synthesis was performed where data allowed. Acute and rehabilitation hospitals. Adults hospitalized for stroke who were newly admitted directly to long-term institutional care at the time of hospital discharge. Factors associated with new institutionalization. From 10,420 records, we included 18 studies (n = 32,139 participants). The studies were heterogeneous and conducted in Europe, North America, and East Asia. Eight studies were at high risk of selection bias. The proportion of those surviving to discharge who were newly discharged to long-term care varied from 7% to 39% (median 17%, interquartile range 12%), and the model of care received in the long-term care setting was not defined. Older age and greater stroke severity had a consistently positive association with the need for long-term care admission. Individuals who had a severe stroke were 26 times as likely to be admitted to long-term care than those who had a minor stroke. Individuals aged 65 and older had a risk of stroke that was three times as great as that of younger individuals. Potentially modifiable factors were rarely examined. Age and stroke severity are important predictors of institutional long-term care admission directly from the hospital after an acute stroke. Potentially modifiable factors should be the target of future research. Stroke outcome studies should report discharge destination, defining the model of care provided in the long-term care setting.

  16. MAGIC biomarkers predict long term outcomes for steroid-resistant acute GVHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major-Monfried, Hannah; Renteria, Anne S; Pawarode, Attaphol; Reddy, Pavan; Ayuk, Francis; Holler, Ernst; Efebera, Yvonne A; Hogan, William J; Wölfl, Matthias; Qayed, Muna; Hexner, Elizabeth O; Wudhikarn, Kitsada; Ordemann, Rainer; Young, Rachel; Shah, Jay; Hartwell, Matthew J; Chaudhry, Mohammed; Aziz, Mina; Etra, Aaron; Yanik, Gregory A; Kröger, Nicolaus; Weber, Daniela; Chen, Yi-Bin; Nakamura, Ryotaro; Rösler, Wolf; Kitko, Carrie L; Harris, Andrew C; Pulsipher, Michael; Reshef, Ran; Kowalyk, Steven; Morales, George; Torres, Ivan; Özbek, Umut; Ferrara, James L M; Levine, John E

    2018-03-15

    Acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) is treated with systemic corticosteroid immunosuppression. Clinical response after one week of therapy often guides further treatment decisions, but long term outcomes vary widely between centers and more accurate predictive tests are urgently needed. We analyzed clinical data and blood samples taken after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD from 507 patients from 17 centers of the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC), dividing them into test (n=236) and two validation cohorts separated in time (n = 142 and 129, respectively). Initial response to systemic steroids correlated with response at four weeks, one-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS). A previously validated algorithm of two MAGIC biomarkers (ST2 and REG3α) consistently separated steroid resistant patients into two groups with dramatically different NRM and OS (p<0.001 for all three cohorts). High biomarker probability, resistance to steroids and GVHD severity (Minnesota risk) were all significant predictors of NRM in multivariate analysis. A direct comparison of receiver operating curves showed the area under the curve for biomarker probability (0.82) was significantly greater than that for steroid response (0.68, p=0.004) and for Minnesota risk (0.72, p=0.005). In conclusion, MAGIC biomarker probabilities generated after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD predict long term outcomes in steroid resistant GVHD better than clinical criteria and should prove useful in developing better treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Hematology.

  17. Scientific basis for long-term prediction of waste-form performance under repository conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendel, J.E.

    1982-10-01

    This paper presents an overview of the fundamental principles involved in predicting long-term performance of waste forms by the as-low-as-reasonably-achievable approach. Repository conditions which make up the waste-form environment, the aging of the waste form, the important radionuclides in the waste form, the chemistry of repository fluids, and multicomponent interactions testing were considered in order to describe these principles. The need for confidence limits on the prediction of waste-form performance and ways of achieving a definition of the confidence limits are discussed

  18. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2018-01-01

    LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

  19. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amnon eYacoby

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK. We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or one day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information one day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories.

  20. Long term adverse drug reaction to Efavirenz in a HIV infected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Arun Kumar Agnihotri

    2015-08-31

    Aug 31, 2015 ... presented with five-day history of Difficulty sleeping, abnormal dreams, inability to ... He regained his memory, no longer had bad dreams or demonstrated any irrational .... concentration of Efavirenz on long term. Efavirenz ...

  1. Prediction method of long-term reliability in improving residual stresses by means of surface finishing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sera, Takehiko; Hirano, Shinro; Chigusa, Naoki; Okano, Shigetaka; Saida, Kazuyoshi; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

    2012-01-01

    Surface finishing methods, such as Water Jet Peening (WJP), have been applied to welds in some major components of nuclear power plants as a counter measure to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). In addition, the methods of surface finishing (buffing treatment) is being standardized, and thus the buffing treatment has been also recognized as the well-established method of improving stress. On the other hand, the long-term stability of peening techniques has been confirmed by accelerated test. However, the effectiveness of stress improvement by surface treatment is limited to thin layers and the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal beneath the surface is not strictly taken into account for long-term stability. This paper, therefore, describes the accelerated tests, which confirmed that the long-term stability of the layer subjected to buffing treatment was equal to that subjected to WJP. The long-term reliability of very thin stress improved layer was also confirmed through a trial evaluation by thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis, even if the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal was excessively taken into account. Considering the above findings, an approach is proposed for constructing the prediction method of the long-term reliability of stress improvement by surface finishing. (author)

  2. The value of short-term pain relief in predicting the long-term outcome of 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joswig, Holger; Neff, Armin; Ruppert, Christina; Hildebrandt, Gerhard; Stienen, Martin Nikolaus

    2018-05-01

    The predictive value of short-term arm pain relief after 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injection (ESI) for the 1-month treatment response has been previously demonstrated. It remained to be answered whether the long-term response could be estimated by the early post-interventional pain course as well. Prospective observational study, following a cohort of n = 45 patients for a period of 24 months after 'indirect' ESI for radiculopathy secondary to a single-level cervical disk herniation (CDH). Arm and neck pain on the visual analog scale (VAS), health-related quality of life with the Short Form-12 (SF-12), and functional outcome with the Neck Pain and Disability (NPAD) Scale were assessed. Any additional invasive treatment after a single injection (second injection or surgery) defined treatment outcome as 'non-response'. At 24 months, n = 30 (66.7%) patients were responders and n = 15 (33.3%) were non-responders. Non-responders exited the follow-up at 1 month (n = 10), at 3 months (n = 4), and at 6 months (n = 1). No patients were injected again or operated on between the 6- and 24-month follow-up. Patients with favorable treatment response at 24 months had significantly lower VAS arm pain (p  50% short term pain reduction was not a reliable predictor of the 24-month responder status. SF-12 and NPAD scores were better among treatment responders in the long term. Patients who require a second injection or surgery after 'indirect' cervical ESI for a symptomatic CDH do so within the first 6 months. Short-term pain relief cannot reliably predict the long-term outcome.

  3. Short-term and long-term deflection of reinforced hollow core ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents a study on different methods of analysis that are currently used by design codes to predict the short-term and long-term deflection of reinforced concrete slab systems and compares the predicted deflections with measured deflections. The experimental work to measure deflections involved the testing of ...

  4. Dienogest in long-term treatment of endometriosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schindler AE

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Adolf E SchindlerInstitute for Medical Research and Education, Essen, GermanyAbstract: Endometriosis is a chronic disease primarily affecting women of childbearing age, in which endometriotic lesions form outside the uterus, typically leading to painful symptoms, fatigue, and infertility. The symptoms of endometriosis may cause significant impairment in quality of life and represent a substantial economic burden to patients, families, and society. There is no cure for endometriosis; management consists of alleviating pain and other symptoms, reducing endometriotic lesions, and improving quality of life. Recurrence after surgical intervention is common, while the clinical evidence to support the efficacy and safety of many medications currently used in endometriosis is limited. Dienogest is an oral progestin that has been investigated extensively in the treatment of endometriosis in two clinical programs performed in Europe and Japan, including dose-ranging, placebo-controlled, active comparator-controlled, and long-term (up to 65 weeks studies. These studies demonstrated that dienogest 2 mg daily effectively alleviates the painful symptoms of endometriosis, reduces endometriotic lesions, and improves indices of quality of life. Dienogest showed a favorable safety and tolerability profile in these studies, with predictable adverse effects, high rates of patient compliance, and low withdrawal rates. This review article describes the clinical trial evidence that characterizes the efficacy and safety of dienogest in endometriosis, including two studies characterizing dienogest in long-term use. The relevance of these findings to the management of endometriosis in clinical practice is discussed.Keywords: dienogest, endometriosis, progestins, long-term treatment, quality of life, symptoms, pain

  5. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Philip [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); McMaster University, Population Health Research Institute, Department of Medicine, and Department of Radiology, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); Mani, Venkatesh [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Kallend, David [The Medicines Company, Parsippany, NJ (United States); Rudd, James H.F. [University of Cambridge, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Fayad, Zahi A. [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Hess CSM Building Floor TMII, Rm S1-104, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States)

    2017-01-15

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  6. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joseph, Philip; Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed; Mani, Venkatesh; Kallend, David; Rudd, James H.F.; Fayad, Zahi A.

    2017-01-01

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  7. Long-term health status of Danish women with silicone breast implants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breiting, Vibeke B; Hölmich, Lisbet R; Brandt, Bodil

    2004-01-01

    Long-term safety data are important in the evaluation of possible adverse health outcomes related to silicone breast implants. The authors evaluated long-term symptoms and conditions and medication use among 190 Danish women with cosmetic silicone breast implants compared with 186 women who had u...

  8. Pre-Interventional Kynurenine Predicts Medium-Term Outcome after Contrast Media Exposure Due to Coronary Angiography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Reichetzeder

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Contrast induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI remains a serious complication of contrast media enhanced procedures like coronary angiography. There is still a lack of established biomarkers that help to identify patients at high risk for short and long-term complications. The aim of the current study was to evaluate plasma kynurenine as a predictive biomarker for CI-AKI and long-term complications, measured by the combined endpoint "major adverse kidney events" (MAKE up to 120 days after CM application. Methods: In this prospective cohort study 245 patients undergoing coronary angiography were analyzed. Blood samples were obtained at baseline, 24h and 48h after contrast media (CM application to diagnose CI-AKI. Patients were followed for 120 days for adverse clinical events including death, the need for dialysis, and a doubling of plasma creatinine. Occurrence of any of these events was summarized in the combined endpoint MAKE. Results: Preinterventional plasma kynurenine was not associated with CI-AKI. Patients who later developed MAKE displayed significantly increased preinterventional plasma kynurenine levels (p<0.0001. ROC analysis revealed that preinterventional kynurenine is highly predictive for MAKE (AUC=0.838; p<0.0001. The optimal cutoff was found at ≥3.5 µmol/L Using this cutoff, the Kaplan-Meier estimator demonstrated that concentrations of plasma kynurenine ≥3.5 µmol/L were significantly associated with a higher prevalence of MAKE until follow up (p<0.0001. This association remained significant in multivariate Cox regression models adjusted for relevant factors of long-term renal outcome. Conclusion: Preinterventional plasma kynurenine might serve as a highly predictive biomarker for MAKE up to 120 days after coronary angiography.

  9. Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

    2018-05-01

    The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Manitoba Hydro long-term high-voltage transmission line magnetic field monitoring project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, P.S.; Ng, C.K.

    2008-01-01

    As part of the licensing process to construct a new 230 kV transmission line on an existing right-of-way in Manitoba, an electrical effects study was conducted in 1998. The study was part of the environmental assessment program crucial in obtaining government approval to construct the line. Some residents living adjacent to the new transmission circuit expressed concerns about alleged adverse health effects associated with long-term exposure to magnetic fields from high voltage transmission lines. In order to verify the accuracy of the predicted magnetic field levels submitted to the regulatory body in the the electrical effects study and to instill confidence in the residents of the affected communities, a three-year magnetic monitoring project was conducted between 2003 and 2005 along the right-of-way after the new 230kV transmission line was energized by Manitoba Hydro. This paper described the monitoring program, with reference to location; equipment; data analysis; and discussion of results. It was concluded that the long-term monitoring project demonstrated that the magnetic field prediction methodology was well understood and accurate, and provided valuable long-term magnetic field characteristics at the edge of the right-of-way. In addition, when there is opposition to a transmission line, public consultation and education were found to be the best options to arrive at a solution. 3 refs., 1 tab., 12 figs

  11. Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine

    2009-01-01

    In a regulatory context, numerical models are increasingly employed to quantify leaching of pesticides and their metabolites. Although the ability of these models to accurately simulate leaching of pesticides has been evaluated, little is known about their ability to accurately simulate long...... alternative kinetics (a two-site approach), we captured the observed leaching scenario, thus underlining the necessity of accounting for the long-term sorption and dissipation characteristics when using models to predict the risk of groundwater contamination.......-term leaching of metabolites. A Danish study on the dissipation and sorption of metribuzin, involving both monitoring and batch experiments, concluded that desorption and degradation of metribuzin and leaching of its primary metabolite diketometribuzin continued for 5-6 years after application, posing a risk...

  12. The Sources of Life Chances: Does Education, Class Category, Occupation, or Short-Term Earnings Predict 20-Year Long-Term Earnings?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ChangHwan Kim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In sociological studies of economic stratification and intergenerational mobility, occupation has long been presumed to reflect lifetime earnings better than do short-term earnings. However, few studies have actually tested this critical assumption. In this study, we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of 20-year accumulated earnings using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal earnings records based on administrative tax information from 1990 to 2009. Fit statistics of regression models are estimated to assess the predictive power of various proxy variables, including occupation, education, and short-term earnings, on cumulative earnings over the 20-year time period. Contrary to the popular assumption in sociology, our results find that cross-sectional earnings have greater predictive power on long-term earnings than occupation-based class classifications, including three-digit detailed occupations for both men and women. The model based on educational attainment, including field of study, has slightly better fit than models based on one-digit occupation or the Erikson, Goldthorpe, and Portocarero class scheme. We discuss the theoretical implications of these findings for the sociology of stratification and intergenerational mobility.

  13. Long-term changes in cognitive bias and coping response as a result of chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaby, Lauren E; Cavigelli, Sonia A; White, Amanda; Wang, Kayllie; Braithwaite, Victoria A

    2013-01-01

    Animals that experience adverse events in early life often have life-long changes to their physiology and behavior. Long-term effects of stress during early life have been studied extensively, but less attention has been given to the consequences of negative experiences solely during the adolescent phase. Adolescence is a particularly sensitive period of life when regulation of the glucocorticoid "stress" hormone response matures and specific regions in the brain undergo considerable change. Aversive experiences during this time might, therefore, be expected to generate long-term consequences for the adult phenotype. Here we investigated the long-term effects of exposure to chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence on adult decision-making, coping response, cognitive bias, and exploratory behavior in rats. Rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (e.g., isolation, crowding, cage tilt) were compared to control animals that were maintained in standard, predictable conditions throughout development. Unpredictable stress during adolescence resulted in a suite of long-term behavioral and cognitive changes including a negative cognitive bias [F (1, 12) = 5.000, P chronic stress during adolescence also caused a short-term increase in boldness behaviors; in a novel object test 15 days after the last stressor, animals exposed to chronic unpredictable stress had decreased latencies to leave a familiar shelter and approach a novel object [T (1, 14) = 2.240, P = 0.04; T (1, 14) = 2.419, P = 0.03, respectively]. The results showed that stress during adolescence has long-term impacts on behavior and cognition that affect the interpretation of ambiguous stimuli, behavioral response to adverse events, and how animals make decisions.

  14. Long-term neurodevelopmental outcome after selective feticide in monochorionic pregnancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Klink, Jmm; Koopman, H M; Middeldorp, J M; Klumper, F J; Rijken, M; Oepkes, D; Lopriore, E

    2015-10-01

    To assess the incidence of and risk factors for adverse long-term neurodevelopmental outcome in complicated monochorionic pregnancies treated with selective feticide at our centre between 2000 and 2011. Observational cohort study. National referral centre for fetal therapy (Leiden University Medical Centre, the Netherlands). Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed in 74 long-term survivors. Children, at least 2 years of age, underwent an assessment of neurologic, motor and cognitive development using standardised psychometric tests and the parents completed a behavioural questionnaire. A composite outcome termed neurodevelopmental impairment including cerebral palsy (GMFCS II-V), cognitive and/or motor test score of Neurodevelopmental impairment was detected in 5/74 [6.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-12.5] of survivors. Overall adverse outcome, including perinatal mortality or neurodevelopmental impairment was 48/131 (36.6%). In multivariate analysis, parental educational level was associated with cognitive test scores (regression coefficient B 3.9, 95% CI 1.8-6.0). Behavioural problems were reported in 10/69 (14.5%). Adverse long-term outcome in survivor twins of complicated monochorionic pregnancies treated with selective feticide appears to be more prevalent than in the general population. Cognitive test scores were associated with parental educational level. Neurodevelopmental impairment after selective feticide was detected in 5/74 (6.8%, 95% CI 1.1-12.5) of survivors. © 2015 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  15. Biological effects of petroleum hydrocarbons: Predictions of long-term effects and recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capuzzo, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Biological effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine organisms and ecosystems are dependent on the persistence and bioavailability of specific hydrocarbons, the ability of organisms to accumulate and metabolize various hydrocarbons, the fate of metabolized products, and the interference of specific hydrocarbons with normal metabolic processes that may alter an organism's chances for survival and reproduction in the environment. In considering the long-term effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine ecosystems it is important to ascertain what biological effects may result in subtle ecological changes, changes in community structure and function, and possible impairment of fisheries resources. It is also important to understand which hydrocarbons persist in benthic environments and the sublethal effects that lead to reduced growth, delayed development and reduced reproductive effort, population decline and the loss of that population's function in marine communities. Only through a multi-disciplinary approach to the study of the fate, transport and effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine ecosystems will there be a significant improvement in the ability to predict the long-term effects of oil spills and to elucidate the mechanisms of recovery

  16. Long-Term Clinical Outcomes and Factors That Predict Poor Prognosis in Athletes After a Diagnosis of Acute Spondylolysis: A Retrospective Review With Telephone Follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selhorst, Mitchell; Fischer, Anastasia; Graft, Kristine; Ravindran, Reno; Peters, Eric; Rodenberg, Richard; MacDonald, James

    2016-12-01

    Study Design Retrospective review with telephone follow-up. Background Acute spondylolytic injuries have a dramatic impact on the young athlete. Excellent short-term clinical outcomes have been observed, but not enough is known about long-term clinical outcomes. Objectives (1) To report long-term clinical outcomes for patients diagnosed with acute spondylolysis, and (2) to assess the prognostic ability of retrospective variables for long-term outcomes. Methods Patients from 2010 through 2013 were retrospectively reviewed to identify patients and to obtain demographic, baseline, and short-term outcomes. Long-term follow-up data were collected by telephone from patients diagnosed with acute spondylolysis to assess recurrence rate of low back pain, perceived outcome, pain, and functional ability. Patients were categorized as having a good or poor long-term outcome based on these measures. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic ability of the retrospective variables for long-term outcomes 3.4 years (range, 1.5-5.6 years) after treatment. Results One hundred twenty-one (71.6%) patients completed the follow-up questionnaire (48 female; mean age at baseline, 14.4 years). At follow-up, 81 (66.9%) patients were able to maintain their same or a higher level of sport. Recurrence of significant symptoms was reported by 55 (45.5%) patients, with 41 (33.9%) requiring medical treatment. The final logistic regression model revealed that female sex, adverse reaction during care, and multilevel injury were significant predictors of poor long-term outcome (R 2 = 0.22). Conclusion Although excellent short-term outcomes were noted, 42% of patients reported a poor outcome at long-term follow-up. Female sex, multilevel injury, and experiencing an adverse reaction during care were significant predictors of poor long-term clinical outcome for patients diagnosed with acute spondylolysis. Level of Evidence Prognosis, level 4. Registered January 15, 2015 at www

  17. Pre-Interventional Kynurenine Predicts Medium-Term Outcome after Contrast Media Exposure Due to Coronary Angiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichetzeder, Christoph; Heunisch, Fabian; Einem, Gina von; Tsuprykov, Oleg; Kellner, Karl-Heinz; Dschietzig, Thomas; Kretschmer, Axel; Hocher, Berthold

    2017-01-01

    Contrast induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) remains a serious complication of contrast media enhanced procedures like coronary angiography. There is still a lack of established biomarkers that help to identify patients at high risk for short and long-term complications. The aim of the current study was to evaluate plasma kynurenine as a predictive biomarker for CI-AKI and long-term complications, measured by the combined endpoint "major adverse kidney events" (MAKE) up to 120 days after CM application. In this prospective cohort study 245 patients undergoing coronary angiography were analyzed. Blood samples were obtained at baseline, 24h and 48h after contrast media (CM) application to diagnose CI-AKI. Patients were followed for 120 days for adverse clinical events including death, the need for dialysis, and a doubling of plasma creatinine. Occurrence of any of these events was summarized in the combined endpoint MAKE. Preinterventional plasma kynurenine was not associated with CI-AKI. Patients who later developed MAKE displayed significantly increased preinterventional plasma kynurenine levels (p<0.0001). ROC analysis revealed that preinterventional kynurenine is highly predictive for MAKE (AUC=0.838; p<0.0001). The optimal cutoff was found at ≥3.5 µmol/L Using this cutoff, the Kaplan-Meier estimator demonstrated that concentrations of plasma kynurenine ≥3.5 µmol/L were significantly associated with a higher prevalence of MAKE until follow up (p<0.0001). This association remained significant in multivariate Cox regression models adjusted for relevant factors of long-term renal outcome. Preinterventional plasma kynurenine might serve as a highly predictive biomarker for MAKE up to 120 days after coronary angiography. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  18. Functional interpretation of metabolomics data as a new method for predicting long-term side effects: treatment of atopic dermatitis in infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seul Ji; Woo, Sung-il; Ahn, Soo Hyun; Lim, Dong Kyu; Hong, Ji Yeon; Park, Jeong Hill; Lim, Johan; Kim, Mi-kyeong; Kwon, Sung Won

    2014-12-10

    Topical steroids are used for the treatment of primary atopic dermatitis (AD); however, their associated risk of serious complications is great due to the presence of vulnerable lesions in young children with AD. Topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCIs) are steroid-free, anti-inflammatory agents used for topical AD therapy. However, their use is prohibited in infants side effects. The 1% pimecrolimus cream displayed similar efficacy and exceptional safety compared with the 0.05% desonide cream. Metabolomics-based long-term toxicity tests effectively predicted long-term side effects using short-term clinical models. This applicable method for the functional interpretation of metabolomics data sets the foundation for future studies involving the prediction of the toxicity and systemic reactions caused by long-term medication administration.

  19. Predicting the long term stabilisation of uranium mill tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trojacek, J.

    2004-01-01

    The long-term stabilization and remediation of uranium mill tailings ponds is an important task for DIAMO. After uranium mining was stopped, DIAMO has to remediate more then 400 ha of tailings ponds at three locations. It is currently planned to cover the surface with low permeability materials with a slope of approx. 3% to protect the interior of the disposal facility from infiltrating rainwater. This entails to cover the free surface of these ponds with several hundred thousand tons of inert material. As a result of this load, the porewater from the tailings is expelled and the body of the impounded materials consolidates. Consolidation of tailings proceeds irregularly, depending on the internal structure of the tailings layers and on the progress of loading. The surface needs to be recontoured for a long time into the future. The topic of the DIAMO project is to predict and optimise the final surface contour of the tailings pond body, and to determine the time schedule and locations for recontouring work. The K1 tailings pond in Dolni Rozinka (Southern Moravia) is a typical example for such task. The average thickness of the tailings layer is around 25 m and the average porewater contents varies from 25 up to 40%. In the years 1998-99 a PHARE pilot project was undertaken that aimed to predict the quantity and quality of drainage and infiltration waters as a function of time. A new investigation programme (field, laboratory and modelling) has been implemented. The range of material properties and distribution of types of tailings was established. Orientation calculations of the tailings consolidation were made for fine slime zone. The results have shown that significant subsidence of the surface is to be expected after loading with inert material for the construction of an interim cover. (author)

  20. Predictive value of the Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and its components for long-term survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aukland, Preben; Lando, Martin; Vilholm, Ole

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The "Status Epilepticus Severity Score" (STESS) is the most important clinical score to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with status epilepticus (SE), but its prognostic relevance for long-term survival is unknown. This study therefore examined if STESS and its components...

  1. Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J; Nawata, K

    2018-05-01

    Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.

  2. [Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Haixia; Tang, Yangjiang; Wang, Lan; Shi, Chaoli; Feng, Yulin; Yi, Qun

    2016-01-26

    To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), Prisk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower

  3. Anticipatory eye movements and long-term memory in early infancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-Kee-You, Audrey M B; Adler, Scott A

    2016-11-01

    Advances in our understanding of long-term memory in early infancy have been made possible by studies that have used the Rovee-Collier's mobile conjugate reinforcement paradigm and its variants. One function that has been attributed to long-term memory is the formation of expectations (Rovee-Collier & Hayne, 1987); consequently, a long-term memory representation should be established during expectation formation. To examine this prediction and potentially open the door on a new paradigm for exploring infants' long-term memory, using the Visual Expectation Paradigm (Haith, Hazan, & Goodman, 1988), 3-month-old infants were trained to form an expectation for predictable color and spatial information of picture events and emit anticipatory eye movements to those events. One day later, infants' anticipatory eye movements decreased in number relative to the end of training when the predictable colors were changed but not when the spatial location of the predictable color events was changed. These findings confirm that information encoded during expectation formation are stored in long-term memory, as hypothesized by Rovee-Collier and colleagues. Further, this research suggests that eye movements are potentially viable measures of long-term memory in infancy, providing confirmatory evidence for early mnemonic processes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jie; Chen, Kuilin; Mori, Junichi; Rashid, Mudassir M.

    2013-01-01

    Optimizing wind power generation and controlling the operation of wind turbines to efficiently harness the renewable wind energy is a challenging task due to the intermittency and unpredictable nature of wind speed, which has significant influence on wind power production. A new approach for long-term wind speed forecasting is developed in this study by integrating GMCM (Gaussian mixture copula model) and localized GPR (Gaussian process regression). The time series of wind speed is first classified into multiple non-Gaussian components through the Gaussian mixture copula model and then Bayesian inference strategy is employed to incorporate the various non-Gaussian components using the posterior probabilities. Further, the localized Gaussian process regression models corresponding to different non-Gaussian components are built to characterize the stochastic uncertainty and non-stationary seasonality of the wind speed data. The various localized GPR models are integrated through the posterior probabilities as the weightings so that a global predictive model is developed for the prediction of wind speed. The proposed GMCM–GPR approach is demonstrated using wind speed data from various wind farm locations and compared against the GMCM-based ARIMA (auto-regressive integrated moving average) and SVR (support vector regression) methods. In contrast to GMCM–ARIMA and GMCM–SVR methods, the proposed GMCM–GPR model is able to well characterize the multi-seasonality and uncertainty of wind speed series for accurate long-term prediction. - Highlights: • A novel predictive modeling method is proposed for long-term wind speed forecasting. • Gaussian mixture copula model is estimated to characterize the multi-seasonality. • Localized Gaussian process regression models can deal with the random uncertainty. • Multiple GPR models are integrated through Bayesian inference strategy. • The proposed approach shows higher prediction accuracy and reliability

  5. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  6. Endorsement of Social and Personal Values Predicts the Desirability of Men and Women as Long-Term Partners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Guilherme S; Barbaro, Nicole; Sela, Yael; Jeffery, Austin J; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K; Zeigler-Hill, Virgil

    2017-01-01

    A prospective romantic partner's desirability as a long-term partner may be affected by the values that he or she endorses. However, few studies have examined the effects of "values" on a person's desirability as a long-term partner. We hypothesized that individuals who endorse social values (vs. personal values) will be perceived as more desirable long-term partners (Hypothesis 1) and that the endorsement of social values will be especially desirable in a male (vs. female) long-term partner (Hypothesis 2). The current study employed a 2 (sex of prospective partner: male vs. female) × 2 (values of prospective partner: personal vs. social) × 2 (physical attractiveness of prospective partner: unattractive vs. highly attractive) mixed-model design. Participants were 339 undergraduates (174 men, 165 women), with ages varying between 18 and 33 years ( M = 19.9, SD = 3.6), and mostly in a romantic relationship (53.7%). Participants reported interest in a long-term relationship with prospective partners depicted in four scenarios (within subjects), each varying along the dimensions of values (personal vs. social) and physical attractiveness (unattractive vs. highly attractive). Individuals endorsing personal values (vs. social values) and men (vs. women) endorsing personal values were rated as less desirable as long-term partners. The current research adds to the partner preferences literature by demonstrating that an individual's ascribed values influence others' perceptions of desirability as a long-term partner and that these effects are consistently sex differentiated, as predicted by an evolutionary perspective on romantic partner preferences.

  7. Psychostimulants: Concerns over Long-Term Adverse Side Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, James Gray

    2015-11-01

    The personal rewards are substantial for the healthcare provider who can make teachers and parents happy. There are evolving, alternative methods of dealing with ADHD, but PS are relatively cheap and quick when they work (roughly 70% of the time) and readily accessible. We have no social or educational structures currently to deal with the extreme ADHD cases. In cases of less dramatic, attention problems, poor grades, where PS boost attention, physicians are unlikely to abandon their patients willingly, unless compelled to sacrifice short-term goals over the unanswered questions about what is best in the long run. How can we know if it's the child and not the educational system that needs diagnosis and treatment? Psychiatric literature consistently suggests the prevalence of attention deficit in children is roughly 5% of the child population. Do 5% of our children need to take PS? This is where risks versus benefits enters the decision making process, and this is where this article aims to intentionally plant a healthy dose of scientific scrutiny. Ultimately, the doctor in charge makes a decision ... sometimes based on intangibles that cannot be legislated or defined by even the best scientific studies. It is not clear or scientifically established that the use of PS, especially in young, developing minds of children, is safe or meaningfully beneficial in the long run. There is much information in human and animal studies to question the wishful thinking that using mind altering drugs in children is the right thing to do. There are risks, and there are benefits. In this case, the risks are less obvious, cloaked in the inadequacy of our current state of knowledge, potentially threatening the quality of the lives we seek to enhance.

  8. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  9. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  10. Long- and short-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality: using novel exposure models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloog, Itai; Ridgway, Bill; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A; Schwartz, Joel D

    2013-07-01

    Many studies have reported associations between ambient particulate matter (PM) and adverse health effects, focused on either short-term (acute) or long-term (chronic) PM exposures. For chronic effects, the studied cohorts have rarely been representative of the population. We present a novel exposure model combining satellite aerosol optical depth and land-use data to investigate both the long- and short-term effects of PM2.5 exposures on population mortality in Massachusetts, United States, for the years 2000-2008. All deaths were geocoded. We performed two separate analyses: a time-series analysis (for short-term exposure) where counts in each geographic grid cell were regressed against cell-specific short-term PM2.5 exposure, temperature, socioeconomic data, lung cancer rates (as a surrogate for smoking), and a spline of time (to control for season and trends). In addition, for long-term exposure, we performed a relative incidence analysis using two long-term exposure metrics: regional 10 × 10 km PM2.5 predictions and local deviations from the cell average based on land use within 50 m of the residence. We tested whether these predicted the proportion of deaths from PM-related causes (cardiovascular and respiratory diseases). For short-term exposure, we found that for every 10-µg/m increase in PM 2.5 exposure there was a 2.8% increase in PM-related mortality (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.0-3.5). For the long-term exposure at the grid cell level, we found an odds ratio (OR) for every 10-µg/m increase in long-term PM2.5 exposure of 1.6 (CI = 1.5-1.8) for particle-related diseases. Local PM2.5 had an OR of 1.4 (CI = 1.3-1.5), which was independent of and additive to the grid cell effect. We have developed a novel PM2.5 exposure model based on remote sensing data to assess both short- and long-term human exposures. Our approach allows us to gain spatial resolution in acute effects and an assessment of long-term effects in the entire population rather than a

  11. Longitudinal associations of nursing staff turnover with patient outcomes in long-term care hospitals in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yoonseo; Han, Kihye

    2018-01-10

    To describe the characteristics of long-term care hospitals in 2010-2013 and to examine the longitudinal associations of nursing staff turnover with patient outcomes. The number of long-term care hospitals has exploded in Korea since the national long-term care insurance was launched in 2008. The care quality deviation across long-term care hospitals is large. This was a longitudinal secondary data analysis using the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service's data. From 2010 to 2013, the nursing staff turnover rate decreased. The number of patients per registered nurse increased while that per total nursing staff and skill mix decreased. All adverse patient outcomes decreased. Higher nursing staff turnover and lower RN proportions were associated with adverse patient outcomes. Since the launch of the long-term care insurance, total nursing staffing, turnover rate and patient outcomes have improved, while the skill mix has decreased. Systematic efforts to decrease nursing staff turnover should be implemented for better long-term care patient outcomes. In addition to maintaining high levels of nurse staffing and skill mix, supportive work environments and competitive wages and benefits could reduce turnover, and ultimately adverse patient outcomes. Health care policy should separate nursing staffing levels for registered nurses and certified nursing assistants. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Long-term changes in cognitive bias and coping response as a result of chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren eChaby

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Animals that experience adverse events in early life often have life-long changes to their physiology and behavior. Long-term effects of stress during early life have been studied extensively, but less attention has been given to the consequences of negative experiences solely during the adolescent phase. Adolescence is a particularly sensitive period of life when regulation of the glucocorticoid stress hormone response matures and specific regions in the brain undergo considerable change. Aversive experiences during this time might, therefore, be expected to generate long-term consequences for the adult phenotype. Here we investigated the long-term effects of exposure to chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence on adult decision making, coping response, cognitive bias, and exploratory behavior in rats. Rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (e.g. isolation, crowding, cage tilt were compared to control animals that were maintained in standard, predictable conditions throughout development. Unpredictable stress during adolescence resulted in a suite of long-term behavioral and cognitive changes including a negative cognitive bias (F1,12 = 5.000, P < 0.05, altered coping response (T1,14 = 2.216, P = 0.04, and accelerated decision making (T1,14 = 3.245, P = 0.01. Exposure to chronic stress during adolescence also caused a short-term increase in boldness behaviors; in a novel object test 15 days after the last stressor, animals exposed to chronic unpredictable stress had decreased latencies to leave a familiar shelter and approach a novel object (T1,14 = 2.240, P = 0.04; T1,14 = 2.419, P = 0.03, respectively. The results showed that stress during adolescence has long-term impacts on behavior and cognition that affect the interpretation of ambiguous stimuli, behavioral response to adverse events, and how animals make decisions. Stress during adolescence also induced short-term changes in the way animals moved around a novel environment.

  13. Some long term effects on land application of sewage sludge on soil fertility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGrath, S.P.; Chaudri, A.M.; Giller, K.E.

    1997-01-01

    Metals may affect the growth of plants, soil microbial activity, and soil fertility in the long term. Less is known of the adverse long-term effects of metals on soil microorganisms than on crop yields, since the effects of metals added to soils in sewage sludge are difficult to assess, and few long-term experiments exist. This paper reviews evidence from controlled long-term field experiments with sewage sludges in the UK, Sweden, Germany and the USA. Adverse effects on microbial activity and populations of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae), Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii, mycorrhiza, and total microbial biomass have been detected, in some cases below the European Community's maximum allowable concentration limits for metals in sludge-treated soils. For example, N 2 -fixation by free- living heterotrophic bacteria was found to be inhibited at concentrations (mg kg -1 ) of 127 Zn, 37 Cu, 21 Ni, 3.4 Cd, 52 Cr and 71 Pb. Fixation by free-living cyanobacteria was reduced by 50% at concentrations (mg kg -1 ) of 114 Zn, 33 Cu, 17 Ni, 2.9 Cd, 80 Cr and 40 Pb. Numbers of Rhizobium Leguminosarum bv. trifolii were decreased by several orders of magnitude at metal concentrations (mg kg -1 ) of 130-200 Zn, 27-48 Cu, 11-15 Ni, and 0.8-1.0 Cd. Important factors influencing the severity of toxicity are soil texture and pH; higher pH and clay and organic C contents decrease metal toxicity considerably. The evidence presented in this review of long-term field experiments suggests that adverse effects on microbial parameters occur at modest concentrations of metals in soils. It is concluded that prevention of adverse effects on soil microbial processes, and ultimately on soil fertility, should be a factor that influences soil-protection legislation. (author)

  14. Frequency of changing enteral alimentation bags and tubing, and adverse clinical outcomes in patients in a long term care facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, S; McIntyre, M; Chicoine, J; Gerard, B; Laughren, R; Cowley, G; Morrison, J; Aoki, F Y; Nicolle, L E

    1993-01-01

    Enteral alimentation, given via nasogastric or gastrostomy tubes, is a well established practice to provide nutrition for patients with significant neurological injury. The frequency with which enteral feeding bags and tubes require change and potential adverse effects associated with bacterial contamination of tube feeds remain controversial. The authors studied different times between enteral feeding bag and tube changes, and the effect on adverse clinical outcomes in residents of a long term care facility. In the first study, residents were randomized to 24 h (n = 2), 48 h (n = 3) or 72 h (n = 6) tube feeding and bag changes with clinical status monitored in a standardized fashion for six months. In the second study, patients were randomized to 24 h (n = 6) or 72 h (n = 6) changes. Patient-days of follow-up were 382, 574 and 1000 for the three arms of the first study period and 556 and 496 for the two arms of the second study. No differences in potential clinical adverse events--including fever, gastrointestinal symptoms or pneumonia--were observed with different durations of tubing change. This study suggests it is appropriate to change alimentation tube and feeding bags every 72 h (rather than every 24 h). The less frequent changes will decrease supply costs and free nursing time for other activities.

  15. Long-Term Prognosis of Plantar Fasciitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Liselotte; Krogh, Thøger Persson; Ellingsen, Torkell

    2018-01-01

    , exercise-induced symptoms, bilateral heel pain, fascia thickness, and presence of a heel spur) could predict long-term outcomes, (3) to assess the long-term ultrasound (US) development in the fascia, and (4) to assess whether US-guided corticosteroid injections induce atrophy of the heel fat pad. Study....... The risk was significantly greater for women (P heel...... regardless of symptoms and had no impact on prognosis, and neither did the presence of a heel spur. Only 24% of asymptomatic patients had a normal fascia on US at long-term follow-up. A US-guided corticosteroid injection did not cause atrophy of the heel fat pad. Our observational study did not allow us...

  16. Childhood adversities and adult psychopathology in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald C; McLaughlin, Katie A; Green, Jennifer Greif; Gruber, Michael J; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alhamzawi, Ali Obaid; Alonso, Jordi; Angermeyer, Matthias; Benjet, Corina; Bromet, Evelyn; Chatterji, Somnath; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Demyttenaere, Koen; Fayyad, John; Florescu, Silvia; Gal, Gilad; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chi-Yi; Karam, Elie G; Kawakami, Norito; Lee, Sing; Lépine, Jean-Pierre; Ormel, Johan; Posada-Villa, José; Sagar, Rajesh; Tsang, Adley; Ustün, T Bedirhan; Vassilev, Svetlozar; Viana, Maria Carmen; Williams, David R

    2010-11-01

    Although significant associations of childhood adversities with adult mental disorders are widely documented, most studies focus on single childhood adversities predicting single disorders. To examine joint associations of 12 childhood adversities with first onset of 20 DSM-IV disorders in World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys in 21 countries. Nationally or regionally representative surveys of 51 945 adults assessed childhood adversities and lifetime DSM-IV disorders with the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Childhood adversities were highly prevalent and interrelated. Childhood adversities associated with maladaptive family functioning (e.g. parental mental illness, child abuse, neglect) were the strongest predictors of disorders. Co-occurring childhood adversities associated with maladaptive family functioning had significant subadditive predictive associations and little specificity across disorders. Childhood adversities account for 29.8% of all disorders across countries. Childhood adversities have strong associations with all classes of disorders at all life-course stages in all groups of WMH countries. Long-term associations imply the existence of as-yet undetermined mediators.

  17. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  18. Predicting short-term mortality and long-term survival for hospitalized US patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuthbert, Jennifer A; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W; Shah, Jessica P

    2014-07-01

    No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a US population. We reviewed electronic records for patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD) admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1,761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the previous DF threshold of >32. Admission and theoretical peak scores were calculated by use of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD). Analysis models compared five different scoring systems. INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r (2) = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of the data showed that survival for 28 days was significantly associated with a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status, and creatinine (p short-term mortality (p 50 % mortality at four weeks and >80 % mortality at six months without specific treatment.

  19. Obesity is not an independent risk factor for adverse perioperative and long-term clinical outcomes following open AAA repair or EVAR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Brian; Dargon, Phong; Binette, Christopher; Babic, Bruna; Thomas, Tina; Divinagracia, Thomas; Dahn, Michael S; Menzoian, James O

    2011-10-01

    Moderate (body mass index [BMI] ≥30) and morbid obesity (BMI ≥35) is increasing at an alarming rate in vascular surgery patients. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of obesity on perioperative and long-term clinical outcomes following open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair or endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). This review includes patients that underwent open AAA repair (n = 403) or EVAR (n = 223) from 1999 to 2009. Specific patient characteristics such as comorbid diseases, medications, and body mass index (BMI) were assessed. Specific perioperative outcomes such as length of stay, myocardial infarctions, and mortality were reviewed. In addition, long-term outcomes such as rates of reintervention, permanent renal dysfunction, and mortality beyond 30 days were also assessed. The incidence of obesity in open AAA patients was 25.3% (documented incidence 1.5%) and for EVAR was 24.6% (documented incidence 4%). Moderate and morbid obesity was associated with longer intensive care unit (ICU) admissions for both open AAA or EVAR patients (P AAA repair or EVAR (P > .05). Similarly, moderate and morbid obesity was not associated with significant differences in rates of reintervention, permanent renal dysfunction, and mortality beyond 30 days for patients undergoing open AAA repair or EVAR (P > .05). The results of this study indicate that moderate and morbid obesity are not independently associated with adverse perioperative and long-term clinical outcomes for patients undergoing open AAA repair or EVAR. Therefore, either open AAA repair or EVAR can be accomplished safely in moderately obese and morbidly obese patients.

  20. Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matthiesen, Henning; Hilbert, Lisbeth Rischel; Gregory, David

    2005-01-01

    Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems.......Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems....

  1. Dispositional optimism as predictor of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinonen, Erkki; Heiskanen, Tiia; Lindfors, Olavi; Härkäpää, Kristiina; Knekt, Paul

    2017-09-01

    Dispositional optimism predicts various beneficial outcomes in somatic health and treatment, but has been little studied in psychotherapy. This study investigated whether an optimistic disposition differentially predicts patients' ability to benefit from short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. A total of 326 adult outpatients with mood and/or anxiety disorder were randomized into short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) or long-term psychodynamic therapy and followed up for 3 years. Dispositional optimism was assessed by patients at baseline with the self-rated Life Orientation Test (LOT) questionnaire. Outcome was assessed at baseline and seven times during the follow-up, in terms of depressive (BDI, HDRS), anxiety (SCL-90-ANX, HARS), and general psychiatric symptoms (SCL-90-GSI), all seven follow-up points including patients' self-reports and three including interview-based measures. Lower dispositional optimism predicted faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy. Higher optimism predicted equally rapid and eventually greater benefits in long-term, as compared to short-term, psychotherapy. Weaker optimism appeared to predict sustenance of problems early in long-term therapy. Stronger optimism seems to best facilitate engaging in and benefiting from a long-term therapy process. Closer research might clarify the psychological processes responsible for these effects and help fine-tune both briefer and longer interventions to optimize treatment effectiveness for particular patients and their psychological qualities. Weaker dispositional optimism does not appear to inhibit brief therapy from effecting symptomatic recovery. Patients with weaker optimism do not seem to gain added benefits from long-term therapy, but instead may be susceptible to prolonged psychiatric symptoms in the early stages of long-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  2. Evaluation of adverse effects of long-term oral administration of carprofen, etodolac, flunixin meglumine, ketoprofen, and meloxicam in dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, Stelio P L; Basílio, Ana C; Steagall, Paulo V M; Machado, Luciana P; Moutinho, Flávia Q; Takahira, Regina K; Brandão, Cláudia V S

    2007-03-01

    To evaluate adverse effects of long-term oral administration of carprofen, etodolac, flunixin meglumine, ketoprofen, and meloxicam in dogs. 36 adult dogs. Values for CBC, urinalysis, serum biochemical urinalyses, and occult blood in feces were investigated before and 7, 30, 60, and 90 days after daily oral administration (n = 6 dogs/group) of lactose (1 mg/kg, control treatment), etodolac (15 mg/kg), meloxicam (0.1 mg/kg), carprofen (4 mg/kg), and ketoprofen (2 mg/kg for 4 days, followed by 1 mg/kg daily thereafter) or flunixin (1 mg/kg for 3 days, with 4-day intervals). Gastroscopy was performed before and after the end of treatment. For serum gamma-glutamyltransferase activity, values were significantly increased at day 30 in dogs treated with lactose, etodolac, and meloxicam within groups. Bleeding time was significantly increased in dogs treated with carprofen at 30 and 90 days, compared with baseline. At 7 days, bleeding time was significantly longer in dogs treated with meloxicam, ketoprofen, and flunixin, compared with control dogs. Clotting time increased significantly in all groups except those treated with etodolac. At day 90, clotting time was significantly shorter in flunixin-treated dogs, compared with lactose-treated dogs. Gastric lesions were detected in all dogs treated with etodolac, ketoprofen, and flunixin, and 1 of 6 treated with carprofen. Carprofen induced the lowest frequency of gastrointestinal adverse effects, followed by meloxicam. Monitoring for adverse effects should be considered when nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are used to treat dogs with chronic pain.

  3. Cognitive, physical, and mental health outcomes between long-term cannabis and tobacco users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovell, M E; Bruno, R; Johnston, J; Matthews, A; McGregor, I; Allsop, D J; Lintzeris, N

    2018-04-01

    Cannabis intoxication adversely affects health, yet persistent effects following short-term abstinence in long-term cannabis users are unclear. This matched-subjects, cross-sectional study compared health outcomes of long-term cannabis and long-term tobacco-only users, relative to population norms. Nineteen long-term (mean 32.3years of use, mean age 55.7years), abstinent (mean 15h) cannabis users and 16 long-term tobacco users (mean 37.1years of use, mean age 52.9years), matched for age, educational attainment, and lifetime tobacco consumption, were compared on measures of learning and memory, response inhibition, information-processing, sustained attention, executive control, and mental and physical health. Cannabis users exhibited poorer overall learning and delayed recall and greater interference and forgetting than tobacco users, and exhibited poorer recall than norms. Inhibition and executive control were similar between groups, but cannabis users had slower reaction times during information processing and sustained attention tasks. Cannabis users had superior health satisfaction and psychological, somatic, and general health than tobacco users and had similar mental and physical health to norms whilst tobacco users had greater stress, role limitations from emotional problems, and poorer health satisfaction. Long-term cannabis users may exhibit deficits in some cognitive domains despite short-term abstinence and may therefore benefit from interventions to improve cognitive performance. Tobacco alone may contribute to adverse mental and physical health outcomes, which requires appropriate control in future studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Cephalometric variables predicting the long-term success or failure of combined rapid maxillary expansion and facial mask therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this study was to select a model of cephalometric variables to predict the results of early treatment of Class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by comprehensive treatment with fixed appliances. Lateral cephalograms of 42 patients (20 boys, 22 girls) with Class III malocclusion were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age 8 years 6 months +/- 2 years, at stage I in cervical vertebral maturation). All patients were reevaluated after a mean period of 6 years 6 months (at stage IV or V in cervical vertebral maturation) that included active treatment plus retention. At this time, the sample was divided into 2 groups according to occlusal criteria: a successful group (30 patients) and an unsuccessful group (12 patients). Discriminant analysis was applied to select pretreatment predictive variables of long-term treatment outcome. Stepwise variable selection of the cephalometric measurements at the first observation identified 3 predictive variables. Orthopedic treatment of Class III malocclusion might be unfavorable over the long term when a patient's pretreatment cephalometric records exhibit a long mandibular ramus (ie, increased posterior facial height), an acute cranial base angle, and a steep mandibular plane angle. On the basis of the equation generated by the multivariate statistical method, the outcome of interceptive orthopedic treatment for each new patient with Class III malocclusion can be predicted with a probability error of 16.7%.

  5. The predictive value of mental health for long-term sickness absence: the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5) compared.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsen, Sannie Vester; Rugulies, Reiner; Hjarsbech, Pernille U; Bjorner, Jakob Bue

    2013-09-17

    Questionnaires are valuable for population surveys of mental health. Different survey instruments may however give different results. The present study compares two mental health instruments, the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5), in regard to their prediction of long-term sickness absence. Questionnaire data was collected from N = 4153 Danish employees. The questionnaire included the MDI and the MHI-5. The information of long-term sickness absence was obtained from a register. We used Cox regression to calculate covariance adjusted hazard ratios for long-term sickness absence for both measures. Both the MDI and the MHI-5 had a highly significant prediction of long-term sickness absence. A one standard deviation change in score was associated with an increased risk of long-term sickness absence of 27% for the MDI and 37% for the MHI-5. When both measures were included in the same analysis, the MHI-5 performed best. In general population surveys, the MHI-5 is a better predictor of long-term sickness absence than the MDI.

  6. A Long Short-Term Memory deep learning network for the prediction of epileptic seizures using EEG signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsiouris, Κostas Μ; Pezoulas, Vasileios C; Zervakis, Michalis; Konitsiotis, Spiros; Koutsouris, Dimitrios D; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

    2018-05-17

    The electroencephalogram (EEG) is the most prominent means to study epilepsy and capture changes in electrical brain activity that could declare an imminent seizure. In this work, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are introduced in epileptic seizure prediction using EEG signals, expanding the use of deep learning algorithms with convolutional neural networks (CNN). A pre-analysis is initially performed to find the optimal architecture of the LSTM network by testing several modules and layers of memory units. Based on these results, a two-layer LSTM network is selected to evaluate seizure prediction performance using four different lengths of preictal windows, ranging from 15 min to 2 h. The LSTM model exploits a wide range of features extracted prior to classification, including time and frequency domain features, between EEG channels cross-correlation and graph theoretic features. The evaluation is performed using long-term EEG recordings from the open CHB-MIT Scalp EEG database, suggest that the proposed methodology is able to predict all 185 seizures, providing high rates of seizure prediction sensitivity and low false prediction rates (FPR) of 0.11-0.02 false alarms per hour, depending on the duration of the preictal window. The proposed LSTM-based methodology delivers a significant increase in seizure prediction performance compared to both traditional machine learning techniques and convolutional neural networks that have been previously evaluated in the literature. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Long-term prediction of chaotic time series with multi-step prediction horizons by a neural network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirzaee, Hossein

    2009-01-01

    The Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is applied for training a multilayer perception with three hidden layer each with ten neurons in order to carefully map the structure of chaotic time series such as Mackey-Glass time series. First the MLP network is trained with 1000 data, and then it is tested with next 500 data. After that the trained and tested network is applied for long-term prediction of next 120 data which come after test data. The prediction is such a way that, the first inputs to network for prediction are the four last data of test data, then the predicted value is shifted to the regression vector which is the input to the network, then after first four-step of prediction, the input regression vector to network is fully predicted values and in continue, each predicted data is shifted to input vector for subsequent prediction.

  8. Long-term course of opioid addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.

  9. The long-term nutritional status in stroke patients and its predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquereau, Julie; Allart, Etienne; Romon, Monique; Rousseaux, Marc

    2014-07-01

    Malnutrition is common in the first few months after stroke and contributes to a poor overall outcome. We analyzed long-term weight changes and their predictive factors. A total of 71 first-ever stroke patients were included in the study and examined (1) their weight on admission to the acute stroke unit (usual weight [UW]), on admission to the rehabilitation unit, on discharge from the rehabilitation unit, and then 1 year or more after the stroke (median time: 2.5 years), (2) the presence of malnutrition after stroke, and (3) possible predictive factors, namely, sociodemographic factors, clinical characteristics (concerning the stroke, the patient's current neurologic status and the presence of diabetes mellitus and depression), and the present nutritional state (including eating difficulties, anorexia, and changes in food intake and food preferences). Body weight fell (4.0 kg) during the patients' stay in the stroke unit, increased moderately in the rehabilitation unit (2.0 kg), and returned to the UW by the long-term measurement. However, at the last observation, 40.1% of the patients weighed markedly less than their UW, 38.0% weighed markedly more, and 21.1% were relatively stable. Predictors of weight change were a change in preferences for sweet food products and a change in food intake. Malnutrition was frequent (47.9%) and associated with reduced food intake, residence in an institution, and diabetes mellitus. Malnutrition was highly prevalent, with an important role of change in food intake and food preferences, which could result from brain lesions and specific regimens. Living in an institution needs consideration, as its negative effects can be prevented. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Lesion load may predict long-term cognitive dysfunction in multiple sclerosis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Patti

    Full Text Available Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm in Multiple Sclerosis (MS.To investigate the role of white matter (WM and gray matter (GM in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients.303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up. The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f, WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f, a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT, the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL, the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST, and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT. In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors.AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12-1.97 p = 0.006, PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14-1.80 p = 0.002, SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35-2.20 p<0.001, SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28-2.03 p<0.001, MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2-1.9 p<0.001, MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2-1.9 p = 0.001, MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02-1.55 p = 0.032.In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome.

  11. Desensitization to Oxcarbazepine: Long-Term Efficacy and Tolerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jiwon; Park, Eu Gene; Lee, Munhyang

    2017-01-01

    Background and Purpose Antiepileptic drug (AED)-associated cutaneous adverse drug reactions can lead to the discontinuation of medications. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term efficacy and safety of performing desensitization to oxcarbazepine. Methods This study involved 20 patients who exhibited cutaneous adverse drug reactions associated with oxcarbazepine use between July 2009 and March 2016 at Samsung Medical Center. All of the participants had to discontinue oxcarbazepine despite presenting initially positive responses. Human leukocyte antigen genotyping was performed to detect the genetic predisposition to Stevens-Johnson syndrome. The desensitization to oxcarbazepine was performed with a starting dosage of 0.1 mg/day. Efficacy was evaluated by comparing the frequency of seizures before and at 1 and 3 years after desensitization. Adverse events occurring during desensitization and the retention rate after desensitization were also investigated. Results Nineteen patients (95%) safely completed the desensitization protocol. One withdrew owing to emotional problems that appeared to be associated with oxcarbazepine. The follow-up period was 4.6±1.2 years (mean±SD), and oxcarbazepine was maintained for more than 3 years after desensitization in 15 patients (83.3%). The response rates were 84.2% and 77.8% at 1 and 3 years after desensitization, respectively. Eight patients remained seizure-free for 3 years, and two discontinued all AEDs. Transient adverse reactions such as mild rash and itching were reported by five patients during desensitization. Conclusions This study has demonstrated the long-term efficacy and safety of desensitization to oxcarbazepine in patients exhibiting cutaneous adverse drug reactions. This favorable outcome should encourage the implementation of desensitization in patients presenting with hypersensitivity to oxcarbazepine as an alternative strategy in clinical practice. PMID:27730770

  12. Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosz, J.

    2001-12-01

    estuaries below by removing all incoming freshwater. At Toolik Lake, long-term experiments of removing top predators from the good web of lakes showed dramatic alterations of lake populations of small fish and zooplankton. In New Mexico, LTER research on small mammal populations is successfully predicting rodent increases and the potential for increased zoonotic diseases such as Hantavirus and bubonic plague. This ability to forecast based on El Nino prediction is being used to increase scientific awareness and public health awareness through media based communication with the public. In Oregon, the Andrews Forest LTER program has had long, strong links with natural resource policy and management. Basic understanding of forest-stream interactions, characteristics of old-growth forests, roles of woody debris in temperate forest ecosystems, invertebrate biodiversity and ecosystem function have been incorporated in management guidelines, plans and regulations for public and private lands throughout the Pacific Northwest. Other examples of the values of long-term research and monitoring will be presented.

  13. Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

    This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

  14. Aspects of posttraumatic stress disorder in long-term testicular cancer survivors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, A.; Østby-Deglum, Maria; Oldenburg, J.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to study the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and variables associated with PTSD in Norwegian long-term testicular cancer survivors (TCSs) both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Methods: At a mean of 11 years after diagnosis, 1418 TCSs....../depression, chronic fatigue, and neurotoxic adverse effects were significantly associated with Probable PTSD in bivariate analyses. Probable anxiety disorder, poor self-rated health, and neurotoxicity remained significant with Probable PTSD in multivariate analyses at the 11-year study. In bivariate analyses......, probable PTSD at that time significantly predicted socio-demographic variables, somatic health, anxiety/depression, chronic fatigue, and neurotoxicity among participants of the 19-year study, but only probable anxiety disorder remained significant in multivariable analysis. Conclusions: In spite...

  15. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  16. Impact of Procedure-Related Complications on Long-term Islet Transplantation Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caiazzo, Robert; Vantyghem, Marie-Christine; Raverdi, Violeta; Bonner, Caroline; Gmyr, Valery; Defrance, Frederique; Leroy, Clara; Sergent, Geraldine; Hubert, Thomas; Ernst, Oliver; Noel, Christian; Kerr-Conte, Julie; Pattou, François

    2015-05-01

    Pancreatic islet transplantation offers a promising biotherapy for the treatment of type 1 diabetes, but this procedure has met significant challenges over the years. One such challenge is to address why primary graft function still remains inconsistent after islet transplantation. Several variables have been shown to affect graft function, but the impact of procedure-related complications on primary and long-term graft functions has not yet been explored. Twenty-six patients with established type 1 diabetes were included in this study. Each patient had two to three intraportal islet infusions to obtain 10,000 islet equivalent (IEQ)/kg in body weight, equaling a total of 68 islet infusions. Islet transplantation consisted of three sequential fresh islet infusions within 3 months. Islet infusions were performed surgically or under ultrasound guidance, depending on patient morphology, availability of the radiology suite, and patient medical history. Prospective assessment of adverse events was recorded and graded using "Common Terminology Criteria for adverse events in Trials of Adult Pancreatic Islet Transplantation." There were no deaths or patients dropouts. Early complications occurred in nine of 68 procedures. β score 1 month after the last graft and optimal graft function (β score ≥7) rate were significantly lower in cases of procedure-related complications (P = 0.02, P = 0.03). Procedure-related complications negatively impacted graft function (P = 0.009) and was an independent predictive factor of long-term graft survival (P = 0.033) in multivariate analysis. Complications occurring during radiologic or surgical intraportal islet transplantation significantly impair primary graft function and graft survival regardless of their severity.

  17. Housing familiar male wildtype rats together reduces the long-term adverse behavioural and physiological effects of social defeat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruis, M.A.W.; Brake, te J.H.A.; Buwalda, B.; Boer, de S.F.; Meerlo, P.; Korte, S.M.; Blokhuis, H.J.; Koolhaas, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Social stress in rats is known to induce long-lasting, adverse changes in behaviour and physiology, which seem to resemble certain human psychopathologies, such as depression and anxiety. The present experiment was designed to assess the influence of individual or group housing on the vulnerability

  18. Using Long-Short-Term-Memory Recurrent Neural Networks to Predict Aviation Engine Vibrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ElSaid, AbdElRahman Ahmed

    This thesis examines building viable Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neurons to predict aircraft engine vibrations. The different networks are trained on a large database of flight data records obtained from an airline containing flights that suffered from excessive vibration. RNNs can provide a more generalizable and robust method for prediction over analytical calculations of engine vibration, as analytical calculations must be solved iteratively based on specific empirical engine parameters, and this database contains multiple types of engines. Further, LSTM RNNs provide a "memory" of the contribution of previous time series data which can further improve predictions of future vibration values. LSTM RNNs were used over traditional RNNs, as those suffer from vanishing/exploding gradients when trained with back propagation. The study managed to predict vibration values for 1, 5, 10, and 20 seconds in the future, with 2.84% 3.3%, 5.51% and 10.19% mean absolute error, respectively. These neural networks provide a promising means for the future development of warning systems so that suitable actions can be taken before the occurrence of excess vibration to avoid unfavorable situations during flight.

  19. The family environment predicts long-term academic achievement and classroom behavior following traumatic brain injury in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durber, Chelsea M; Yeates, Keith Owen; Taylor, H Gerry; Walz, Nicolay Chertkoff; Stancin, Terry; Wade, Shari L

    2017-07-01

    This study examined how the family environment predicts long-term academic and behavioral functioning in school following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in early childhood. Using a concurrent cohort, prospective design, 15 children with severe TBI, 39 with moderate TBI, and 70 with orthopedic injury (OI) who were injured when they were 3-7 years of age were compared on tests of academic achievement and parent and teacher ratings of school performance and behavior on average 6.83 years postinjury. Soon after injury and at the longer term follow-up, families completed measures of parental psychological distress, family functioning, and quality of the home environment. Hierarchical linear regression analyses examined group differences in academic outcomes and their associations with measures of the early and later family environment. The severe TBI group, but not the moderate TBI group, performed worse than did the OI group on all achievement tests, parent ratings of academic performance, and teacher ratings of internalizing problems. Higher quality early and late home environments predicted stronger academic skills and better classroom behavior for children with both TBI and OI. The early family environment more consistently predicted academic achievement, whereas the later family environment more consistently predicted classroom functioning. The quality of the home environment predicted academic outcomes more strongly than did parental psychological distress or family functioning. TBI in early childhood has long-term consequences for academic achievement and school performance and behavior. Higher quality early and later home environments predict better school outcomes for both children with TBI and children with OI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

    2016-05-01

    Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Long-term risks of kidney living donation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maggiore, Umberto; Budde, Klemens; Heemann, Uwe

    2017-01-01

    Two recent matched cohort studies from the USA and Norway published in 2014 have raised some concerns related to the long-term safety of kidney living donation. Further studies on the long-term risks of living donation have since been published. In this position paper, Developing Education Science...... and Care for Renal Transplantation in European States (DESCARTES) board members critically review the literature in an effort to summarize the current knowledge concerning long-term risks of kidney living donation to help physicians for decision-making purposes and for providing information...... to the prospective live donors. Long-term risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) can be partially foreseen by trying to identify donors at risk of developing ‘de novo’ kidney diseases during life post-donation and by predicting lifetime ESRD risk. However, lifetime risk may be difficult to assess in young donors...

  2. ACCEPT: Introduction of the Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Rodney A.; Santanu, Das; Janakiraman, Vijay Manikandan; Hosein, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we introduce a generic framework developed in MATLAB (sup registered mark) called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox). ACCEPT is an architectural framework designed to compare and contrast the performance of a variety of machine learning and early warning algorithms, and tests the capability of these algorithms to robustly predict the onset of adverse events in any time-series data generating systems or processes.

  3. SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM WATER LEVEL PREDICTION AT ONE RIVER MEASUREMENT LOCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf Scitovski

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Global hydrological cycles mainly depend on climate changes whose occurrence is predominantly triggered by solar and terrestrial influence, and the knowledge of the high water regime is widely applied in hydrology. Regular monitoring and studying of river water level behavior is important from several perspectives. On the basis of the given data, by using modifications of general approaches known from literature, especially from investigation in hydrology, the problem of long- and short-term water level forecast at one river measurement location is considered in the paper. Long-term forecasting is considered as the problem of investigating the periodicity of water level behavior by using linear-trigonometric regression and short-term forecasting is based on the modification of the nearest neighbor method. The proposed methods are tested on data referring to the Drava River level by Donji Miholjac, Croatia, in the period between the beginning of 1900 and the end of 2012.

  4. Short-term effects of air pollution, markers of endothelial activation, and coagulation to predict major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome: insights from AIRACOS study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez-Rodriguez, Alberto; Abreu-Gonzalez, Pedro; Rodríguez, Sergio; Avanzas, Pablo; Juarez-Prera, Ruben A

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether markers of inflammation and coagulation are associated with short-term particulate matter exposure and predict major adverse cardiovascular events at 360 d in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We included 307 consecutive patients, and assessed the average concentrations of data on atmospheric pollution in ambient air and meteorological variables from 1 d up to 7 d prior to admission. In patients with ACS, the markers of endothelial activation and coagulation, but not black carbon exposure, are associated with major adverse cardiovascular events at one-year follow-up.

  5. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

  6. Monitoring long-term oral corticosteroids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundell, Lewis; Lindemann, Roberta; Douglas, James

    2017-01-01

    Corticosteroids are synthetic analogues of human hormones normally produced by the adrenal cortex. They have both glucocorticoid and mineralocorticoid properties. The glucocortoid components are anti-inflammatory, immunosuppressive, anti-proliferative and vasoconstrictive. They influence the metabolism of carbohydrate and protein, in addition to playing a key role in the body's stress response. Mineralocorticoid's main significance is in the balance of salt and water concentrations. Due to the combination of these effects, corticosteroids can cause many adverse effects. Oral corticosteroids are absorbed systemically and are therefore more likely to cause adverse effects than topical or inhaled corticosteroids. Furthermore, it is assumed that greater duration of treatment will lead to a greater number of adverse effects, and therefore the most at risk group are those taking high dose, long-term oral corticosteroids (LTOC). High dose is defined as a prescription of >5 mg oral prednisolone and long term as duration of treatment >1 month (based on National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance for patient's 'at risk' of systemic side effects). Parameters to be monitored in primary care include weight, blood pressure, triglycerides, glucose and urea and electrolytes. From clinical experience within the general practice setting, the authors propose that these patients do not receive adequate baseline monitoring before starting corticosteroids nor are these markers monitored consistently thereafter. This project intended to evidence this claim, evaluate the adverse effect profile and improve monitoring in this patient group. The initial audit of 22 patients, within a single general practice, detected at least one documented adverse effect in 64% of patients, while 41% reported more than one adverse effect. 45% had recorded weight gain, 18% had recorded osteoporosis, 18% had at least one recorded cataract, 14% had recorded Hypertension, 14% had recorded

  7. Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction in Cranfield Multiphase Flow Facility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egedorf, Søren; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2017-01-01

    , or even to the environment. To cope with these, adverse condition and critical event prediction plays an important role. Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox (ACCEPT) is a tool which has been recently developed by NASA to allow for a timely prediction of an adverse event, with low false...... alarm and missed detection rates. While ACCEPT has shown to be an effective tool in some applications, its performance has not yet been evaluated on practical well-known benchmark examples. In this paper, ACCEPT is used for adverse condition and critical event prediction in a multiphase flow facility....... Cranfield multiphase flow facility is known to be an interesting benchmark which has been used to evaluate different methods from statistical process monitoring. In order to allow for the data from the flow facility to be used in ACCEPT, methods such as Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), PCA-and CVA...

  8. Long-term impact of perfusion CT data after subarachnoid hemorrhage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathys, Christian; Martens, Daniel; Reichelt, Dorothea C.; Caspers, Julian; Aissa, Joel; May, Rebecca; Antoch, Gerald; Turowski, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Duesseldorf (Germany); Haenggi, Daniel [University Duesseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Neurosurgery, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2013-11-15

    Dynamic perfusion computed tomography (PCT) has been established as a diagnostic instrument for the detection of vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic impact of PCT parameters after SAH on the long-term outcome of patients. Three hundred twelve patients were retrospectively interrogated with a questionnaire 23.06 {+-} 14.33 months after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage. The modified Rankin scale (mRS) was determined, respectively. Scheduled PCT data sets from the first days after ictus were available for all patients. The maximum mean transit time over several examinations per hemisphere (MTT{sub PEAK}) values were significantly correlated (p {<=} 0.001, r = 0.422) with the clinical long-term outcome (mRS). Corresponding to our linear regression analysis, MTT{sub PEAK} is the second most important regressor (behind clinical severity of the initial hemorrhage) for the prediction of long-term mRS. An MTT{sub PEAK} threshold of 3.98 s (identified by receiver operating characteristic analysis, area under the curve = 0.75) predicted an unfavorable long-term outcome (mRS {>=} 2) with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of 67.3, 74.3, 84.5, 52.1, and 69.6 %, respectively. The presented data corroborate the relevance of PCT data for the clinical long-term outcome of SAH patients. By identification of patients who are at risk for a bad outcome and may need escalation of therapy, risk-benefit analysis is supported. (orig.)

  9. The role of nuclear techniques in the long-term prediction of radionuclide transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Airey, P.L.; Duerden, P.

    1985-01-01

    Problems associated with the long-term prediction of the migration of radionuclides, and the role of natural analogues in reducing the inherent uncertainties are discussed. Particular reference is made to the evaluation of uranium ore bodies in the Alligator Rivers region, Northern Territory, as analogues of high-level radioactive waste repositories. A range of nuclear techniques has been used to identify the role of colloids, of alpha recoil and of mineralogy in transport. Specific mention is made of a method being developed which enables models of the migration of solute through fractured rock to be assessed via a combination of alpha track, fission track and PIXE/PIGME techniques

  10. DOP prediction over Egypt from SP3 file for long-term

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aly M. El-naggar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available An important error source in satellite surveying deals with the geometry of the visible satellite constellation at the time of observation. This is similar to the situation in traditional surveys, where the geometry of the network of observed ground stations affects the accuracies of computed positions. Dilution of precision (DOP is an indicator of the quality of the geometry of the visible satellite constellation. The value of DOP is very important during observation sessions, because many projects have special requirements regarding the positioning accuracy. These special requirements will force the surveyor to hold the survey mission until the value of dilution of precision at the time of observation meets the project’s requirements. This means that the GPS mission planning is an essential task before any GPS survey. The task of this paper is related to The GPS mission planning which the values of dilution of precisions and number of visible satellites should be predicted for the observation points, this task should determine the best observation periods which meet the project requirements. This paper explore the process of DOP prediction for long term by using Standard Product 3 (SP3 file and attempt to mathematically or statistically bound the navigation error. In this paper the actual orbital period of GPS satellite was defined and the DOP contour map over Egypt was constructed. By using these contour maps one can predict the DOP by knowing the city name.

  11. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Hway Wong

    Full Text Available Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients.Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011-2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS, co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings.Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001, compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.58, p = 0.005, independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not show this pattern

  12. On the very long term delayed behavior of concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torrenti, J.M.; Benboudjema, F.; Barre, F.; Gallitre, E.

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of very long-term deformation of prestressed concrete structures is a major challenge considering the service life of these structures. It is therefore necessary to correctly model the delayed behavior of these structures. Using a review of laboratory tests and observations of the delayed behavior of structures (bridges and nuclear power plants), the main conclusions of this work are the following ones. First, very long term creep in laboratory or of real structures seems to be non asymptotic. In the actual Eurocode-2, creep is calculated by means of an asymptotic hyperbolic function while in the recent Model Code 2010 creep is expressed as a combination of an asymptotic and a logarithmic functions. In the latter case the logarithmic function corresponds to basic creep while drying creep is asymptotic. Secondly, using a long test (3 years) in a laboratory is not enough to assess the long term behaviour of a massive structure. We need physical relations for creep in codes in order to predict the delayed behavior of massive structures. Thirdly, the biaxial creep of nuclear power plant could be modelled but using data of the structure itself. This would allow to predict the delayed behavior of these structures. Further work is needed to improve the prediction in the design phase

  13. A randomised trial of enteral glutamine supplementation for very preterm children showed no beneficial or adverse long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twilhaar, E Sabrina; de Kieviet, Jorrit F; Oosterlaan, Jaap; van Elburg, Ruurd M

    2018-04-01

    This study evaluated the long-term effects of enteral glutamine supplementation on neurodevelopmental outcomes of a Dutch cohort of very preterm children at 13 years of age. The cohort was enrolled in a randomised placebo-controlled trial between 2001 and 2003 in which infants received glutamine- or alanine-supplemented enteral nutrition during the first month of life. Participants were invited for follow-up at a mean age of 13.30 years. Motor, neurocognitive, academic and behavioural outcomes were assessed in 61 children. No differences were found between the groups regarding motor, intellectual, academic and behavioural functioning. Forward span visuospatial working memory performance was better in the controls (crude/adjusted model: d = 0.67/0.64, p = 0.02/0.02), but no difference was found for backward span. After the data were adjusted for confounders, the groups differed regarding parent-rated attention (crude/adjusted model: d = 0.47/0.73, p = 0.07/0.003), but both groups scored within the normal range. This was the first study on the long-term effects of enteral glutamine supplementation on the neurodevelopmental outcomes of very preterm children. Our study provided no evidence that enteral glutamine supplementation had any beneficial or adverse effects on the children's motor, neurocognitive, academic and behavioural outcomes at 13 years of age. ©2017 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Sleep Quality, Short-Term and Long-Term CPAP Adherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somiah, Manya; Taxin, Zachary; Keating, Joseph; Mooney, Anne M.; Norman, Robert G.; Rapoport, David M.; Ayappa, Indu

    2012-01-01

    Study Objectives: Adherence to CPAP therapy is low in patients with obstructive sleep apnea/hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS). The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the utility of measures of sleep architecture and sleep continuity on the CPAP titration study as predictors of both short- and long-term CPAP adherence. Methods: 93 patients with OSAHS (RDI 42.8 ± 34.3/h) underwent in-laboratory diagnostic polysomnography, CPAP titration, and follow-up polysomnography (NPSG) on CPAP. Adherence to CPAP was objectively monitored. Short-term (ST) CPAP adherence was averaged over 14 days immediately following the titration study. Long-term (LT) CPAP adherence was obtained in 56/93 patients after approximately 2 months of CPAP use. Patients were grouped into CPAP adherence groups for ST ( 4 h) and LT adherence ( 4 h). Sleep architecture, sleep disordered breathing (SDB) indices, and daytime outcome variables from the diagnostic and titration NPSGs were compared between CPAP adherence groups. Results: There was a significant relationship between ST and LT CPAP adherence (r = 0.81, p CPAP adherence groups had significantly lower %N2 and greater %REM on the titration NPSG. A model combining change in sleep efficiency and change in sleep continuity between the diagnostic and titration NPSGs predicted 17% of the variance in LT adherence (p = 0.006). Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that characteristics of sleep architecture, even on the titration NPSG, may predict some of the variance in CPAP adherence. Better sleep quality on the titration night was related to better CPAP adherence, suggesting that interventions to improve sleep on/prior to the CPAP titration study might be used as a therapeutic intervention to improve CPAP adherence. Citation: Somiah M; Taxin Z; Keating J; Mooney AM; Norman RG; Rapoport DM; Ayappa I. Sleep quality, short-term and long-term CPAP adherence. J Clin Sleep Med 2012;8(5):489-500. PMID:23066359

  15. Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

    2016-01-01

    Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  16. Long Term Clinical Prognostic Factors in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: Insights from a 10-Year Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Bsteh

    Full Text Available Multiple sclerosis (MS has a highly heterogenic course making prediction of long term outcome very difficult.The objective was to evaluate current and identify additional clinical factors that are linked to long term outcome of relapsing-remitting MS assessed by disability status 10 years after disease onset.This observational study included 793 patients with relapsing-remitting MS. Clinical factors hypothesized to influence long term outcome measured by EDSS scores 10 years after disease onset were analysed by Kaplan-Meier-estimates. Multinomial logistic regression models regarding mild (EDSS ≤2.5, moderate (EDSS 3.0-5.5 or severe (EDSS ≥6.0 disability were calculated to correct for confounders.Secondary progression was the strongest predictor of severe disability (Hazard ratio [HR] 503.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 160.0-1580.1; p<0.001. Complete remission of neurological symptoms at onset reduced the risk of moderate disability (HR 0.42; CI 0.23-0.77; p = 0.005, while depression (HR 3.59; CI 1.14-11.24; p = 0.028 and cognitive dysfunction (HR 4.64; CI 1.11-19.50; p = 0.036 10 years after disease onset were associated with severe disability. Oligoclonal bands and pregnancy were not correlated with disability.We were able to identify clinically apparent chronic depression and cognitive dysfunction to be associated with adverse long term outcome in MS and to confirm that pregnancy has no negative impact. Additionally, we emphasize the positive predictive value of complete remission of initial symptoms.

  17. General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

    2016-01-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

  18. Australia's long-term electricity demand forecasting using deep neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Joorabloo, Nima; Jalili, Mahdi

    2018-01-01

    Accurate prediction of long-term electricity demand has a significant role in demand side management and electricity network planning and operation. Demand over-estimation results in over-investment in network assets, driving up the electricity prices, while demand under-estimation may lead to under-investment resulting in unreliable and insecure electricity. In this manuscript, we apply deep neural networks to predict Australia's long-term electricity demand. A stacked autoencoder is used in...

  19. Long-term multipactor discharge in multicarrier systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anza, S.; Vicente, C.; Gimeno, B.; Boria, V. E.; Armendariz, J.

    2007-01-01

    A new mechanism of long-term multipactor in multicarrier systems is studied employing both analytical and numerical methods. In particular, the investigation is focused on the impact that a realistic secondary emission yield at low energies produces on the development of long term multipactor. A novel analytical model for this interperiod charge accumulation is presented using the traditional multipactor theory for parallel plates, and approximating the multicarrier signal as a single-carrier signal modulated by a pulsed signal envelope. The analytical predictions are verified by numerical simulations for a typical rectangular waveguide. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the susceptibility of the system to develop a long-term multipactor discharge increases with higher values of low-energy secondary emission yield

  20. A long-term follow-up study of mortality in transsexuals receiving treatment with cross-sex hormones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asscheman, H.; Giltay, E.J.; Megens, J.A.J.; de Ronde, W.; van Trotsenburg, M.A.A.; Gooren, L.J.G.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Adverse effects of long-term cross-sex hormone administration to transsexuals are not well documented. We assessed mortality rates in transsexual subjects receiving long-term cross-sex hormones. Design: A cohort study with a median follow-up of 18.5 years at a university gender clinic.

  1. The Interval Slope Method for Long-Term Forecasting of Stock Price Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-xue Nie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A stock price is a typical but complex type of time series data. We used the effective prediction of long-term time series data to schedule an investment strategy and obtain higher profit. Due to economic, environmental, and other factors, it is very difficult to obtain a precise long-term stock price prediction. The exponentially segmented pattern (ESP is introduced here and used to predict the fluctuation of different stock data over five future prediction intervals. The new feature of stock pricing during the subinterval, named the interval slope, can characterize fluctuations in stock price over specific periods. The cumulative distribution function (CDF of MSE was compared to those of MMSE-BC and SVR. We concluded that the interval slope developed here can capture more complex dynamics of stock price trends. The mean stock price can then be predicted over specific time intervals relatively accurately, in which multiple mean values over time intervals are used to express the time series in the long term. In this way, the prediction of long-term stock price can be more precise and prevent the development of cumulative errors.

  2. Long-term recurrence and death rates after acute pancreatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Helle; Tønnesen, Hanne; Tønnesen, Maja Hanne

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare long-term recurrence and death rates after a first episode of acute pancreatitis in patients with and without gallstones. Additionally, it was of interest to find out if there were factors predictive of readmission or death.......The aim of this study was to compare long-term recurrence and death rates after a first episode of acute pancreatitis in patients with and without gallstones. Additionally, it was of interest to find out if there were factors predictive of readmission or death....

  3. Prediction of Bond Wire Fatigue of IGBTs in a PV Inverter Under a Long-Term Operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Wang, Huai; Yang, Yongheng

    2016-01-01

    consumption of bond wires of IGBT modules in a Photovoltaic (PV) inverter. The variations in IGBT parameters (e.g., on-state collector-emitter voltage), lifetime models, and environmental and operational stresses are taken into account in the lifetime prediction. The distribution of the annual lifetime...... consumption is estimated based on a long-term annual stress profile of solar irradiance and ambient temperature. The proposed method enables a more realistic lifetime prediction with a specified confidence level compared to the state-of-the-art approaches. A study case of IGBT modules in a 10 kW three......Bond wire fatigue is one of the dominant failure mechanisms in IGBT modules under cyclic stresses. However, there are still major challenges ahead to achieve a realistic bond wire lifetime prediction in field operation. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based analysis method to predict the lifetime...

  4. Narrow Framing and Long-Term Care Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Gottlieb; Olivia S. Mitchell

    2015-01-01

    We propose a model of narrow framing in insurance and test it using data from a new module we designed and fielded in the Health and Retirement Study. We show that respondents subject to narrow framing are substantially less likely to buy long-term care insurance than average. This effect is distinct from, and much larger than, the effects of risk aversion or adverse selection, and it offers a new explanation for why people underinsure their later-life care needs.

  5. Strategy for evaluating the long-term stability of hole-plugging materials in their geological environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, S.J.

    1980-01-01

    Material used to plug boreholes will not in general be in chemical equilibrium with its host rock. Adverse long-term performance of a plug can involve changes in phase assemblage in the plug/rock system which are difficult to observe at low temperatures in real time. The thermodynamics of multiphase equilibria provides a technique of predicting what phase changes might occur. The thermodynamic treatment of plug/rock systems utilizes (1) a formulation of possible chemical reactions among phases in the system and (2) determinations of changes in values of Gibbs' free energies for the hypothetical reactions, to identify the theoretically-permitted reactions which could degrade plug performance. Time-dependent prediction of phase changes requires a knowledge of rate laws and constants for specific reactions whose mechanisms are well known

  6. Being a long-term user of nicotine replacement therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Gitte; Nørgaard, Lotte Stig; Tønnesen, Philip

    Background During recent years a gradual shift in the application of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) has taken place from NRT-products only being recommended to achieve smoking cessation, to now including smoking reduction, and long-term substitution of tobacco with NRT has taken place. This has...... been promoted as a way of achieving harm-reduction in highly nicotine dependent smokers who are unwilling or incapable of quitting all nicotine products, as continued use of NRT is widely accepted as being far less hazardous than continued smoking. To our knowledge no previous research has been done...... of feeling addicted, cost of NRT products and fear of adverse health consequences. Aim of study • To get a thorough understanding of the lived experiences of nicotine dependent long-term NRT users. • To investigate what motivates or discourages quitting NRT. Method Semi-structured interviews with long...

  7. A comparative study on prediction methods for China's medium- and long-term coal demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Bing-Bing; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Wang, Jin-Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Given the dominant position of coal in China's energy structure and in order to ensure a safe and stable energy supply, it is essential to perform a scientific and effective prediction of China's medium- and long-term coal demand. Based on the historical data of coal consumption and related factors such as GDP (Gross domestic product), coal price, industrial structure, total population, energy structure, energy efficiency, coal production and urbanization rate from 1987 to 2012, this study compared the prediction effects of five types of models. These models include the VAR (vector autoregressive model), RBF (radial basis function) neural network model, GA-DEM (genetic algorithm demand estimation model), PSO-DEM (particle swarm optimization demand estimation model) and IO (input–output model). By comparing the results of different models with the corresponding actual coal consumption, it is concluded that with a testing period from 2006 to 2012, the PSO-DEM model has a relatively optimal predicted effect on China's total coal demand, where the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) is close to or below 2%. - Highlights: • The prediction effects of five methods for China's coal demand were compared. • Each model has acceptable prediction results, with MAPE below 5%. • Particle swarm optimization demand estimation model has better forecast efficacy.

  8. Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

    2018-02-01

    Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Immunomodulatory Effects of Macrolide Antibiotics - Part 2 : Advantages and Disadvantages of Long-Term, Low-Dose Macrolide Therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altenburg, J.; de Graaff, C. S.; van der Werf, T. S.; Boersma, W. G.

    2011-01-01

    The available evidence for long-term, low-dose treatment with 14- and 15-membered ring macrolides in non-cystic fibrosis (CF) bronchiectasis, COPD, chronic sinusitis, and asthma is reviewed with special attention to possible adverse effects and the emergence of resistance during long-term macrolide

  10. Long-Term Outcomes After Proton Beam Therapy for Sinonasal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russo, Andrea L.; Adams, Judith A.; Weyman, Elizabeth A.; Busse, Paul M.; Goldberg, Saveli I. [Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Varvares, Mark; Deschler, Daniel D.; Lin, Derrick T. [Head and Neck Surgical Oncology, Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Delaney, Thomas F. [Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chan, Annie W., E-mail: awchan@partners.org [Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Purpose: Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the most common sinonasal cancer and is associated with one of the poor outcomes. Proton therapy allows excellent target coverage with maximal sparing of adjacent normal tissues. We evaluated the long-term outcomes in patients with sinonasal SCC treated with proton therapy. Methods and Materials: Between 1991 and 2008, 54 patients with Stage III and IV SCC of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinus received proton beam therapy at our institution to a median dose of 72.8 Gy(RBE). Sixty-nine percent underwent prior surgical resection, and 74% received elective nodal radiation. Locoregional control and survival probabilities were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional-hazards model. Treatment toxicity was scored using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0. Results: With a median follow-up time of 82 months in surviving patients, there were 10 local, 7 regional, and 11 distant failures. The 2-year and 5-year actuarial local control rate was 80%. The 2-year and 5-year rates of overall survival were 67% and 47%, respectively. Only smoking status was predictive for worse locoregional control, with current smokers having a 5-year rate of 23% compared with 83% for noncurrent smokers (P=.004). Karnofsky performance status ≤80 was the most significant factor predictive for worse overall survival in multivariate analysis (adjusted hazard ratio 4.5, 95% confidence interval 1.6-12.5, P=.004). There were nine grade 3 and six grade 4 toxicities, and no grade 5 toxicity. Wound adverse events constituted the most common grade 3-4 toxicity. Conclusions: Our long-term results show that proton radiation therapy is well tolerated and yields good locoregional control for SCC of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinus. Current smokers and patients with poor performance status had inferior outcomes. Prospective study is necessary to compare IMRT with proton

  11. Long-Term Outcomes After Proton Beam Therapy for Sinonasal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russo, Andrea L.; Adams, Judith A.; Weyman, Elizabeth A.; Busse, Paul M.; Goldberg, Saveli I.; Varvares, Mark; Deschler, Daniel D.; Lin, Derrick T.; Delaney, Thomas F.; Chan, Annie W.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the most common sinonasal cancer and is associated with one of the poor outcomes. Proton therapy allows excellent target coverage with maximal sparing of adjacent normal tissues. We evaluated the long-term outcomes in patients with sinonasal SCC treated with proton therapy. Methods and Materials: Between 1991 and 2008, 54 patients with Stage III and IV SCC of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinus received proton beam therapy at our institution to a median dose of 72.8 Gy(RBE). Sixty-nine percent underwent prior surgical resection, and 74% received elective nodal radiation. Locoregional control and survival probabilities were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional-hazards model. Treatment toxicity was scored using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0. Results: With a median follow-up time of 82 months in surviving patients, there were 10 local, 7 regional, and 11 distant failures. The 2-year and 5-year actuarial local control rate was 80%. The 2-year and 5-year rates of overall survival were 67% and 47%, respectively. Only smoking status was predictive for worse locoregional control, with current smokers having a 5-year rate of 23% compared with 83% for noncurrent smokers (P=.004). Karnofsky performance status ≤80 was the most significant factor predictive for worse overall survival in multivariate analysis (adjusted hazard ratio 4.5, 95% confidence interval 1.6-12.5, P=.004). There were nine grade 3 and six grade 4 toxicities, and no grade 5 toxicity. Wound adverse events constituted the most common grade 3-4 toxicity. Conclusions: Our long-term results show that proton radiation therapy is well tolerated and yields good locoregional control for SCC of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinus. Current smokers and patients with poor performance status had inferior outcomes. Prospective study is necessary to compare IMRT with proton

  12. The Value of Median Nerve Sonography as a Predictor for Short- and Long-Term Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Carpal Tunnel Syndrome: A Prospective Long-Term Follow-Up Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Marschall

    Full Text Available To investigate the prognostic value of B-mode and Power Doppler (PD ultrasound of the median nerve for the short- and long-term clinical outcomes of patients with carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS.Prospective study of 135 patients with suspected CTS seen 3 times: at baseline, then at short-term (3 months and long-term (15-36 months follow-up. At baseline, the cross-sectional area (CSA of the median nerve was measured with ultrasound at 4 levels on the forearm and wrist. PD signals were graded semi-quantitatively (0-3. Clinical outcomes were evaluated at each visit with the Boston Questionnaire (BQ and the DASH Questionnaire, as well as visual analogue scales for the patient's assessment of pain (painVAS and physician's global assessment (physVAS. The predictive values of baseline CSA and PD for clinical outcomes were determined with multivariate logistic regression models.Short-term and long-term follow-up data were available for 111 (82.2% and 105 (77.8% patients, respectively. There was a final diagnosis of CTS in 84 patients (125 wrists. Regression analysis revealed that the CSA, measured at the carpal tunnel inlet, predicted short-term clinical improvement according to BQ in CTS patients undergoing carpal tunnel surgery (OR 1.8, p = 0.05, but not in patients treated conservatively. Neither CSA nor PD assessments predicted short-term improvement of painVAS, physVAS or DASH, nor was any of the ultrasound parameters useful for the prediction of long-term clinical outcomes.Ultrasound assessment of the median nerve at the carpal tunnel inlet may predict short-term clinical improvement in CTS patients undergoing carpal tunnel release, but long-term outcomes are unrelated to ultrasound findings.

  13. Geological predictions for the long-term isolation of radioactive waste based on extrapolating uniform mode and rate of crustal movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeda, Koji; Tanikawa, Shin-ichi; Yasue, Ken-ichi

    2013-01-01

    Long-term predictions of geological and tectonic disturbances are key issues for the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal, especially on the Japanese Islands. Geological predictions of disturbances should be performed by extrapolating uniform mode and rate of crustal movements under the current framework. Multiple lines of geological evidence in Japan strongly suggest that the present mode of tectonics began during the late Pliocene to early Quaternary, and was fully developed by the middle Pleistocene. The uplift rates of mountains in Japan are determined to have been approximately constant until the middle Pleistocene based on simulations of temporal changes in mean altitude developed under concurrent tectonics and denudation processes. The onset of the neotectonic mode of deformation was probably triggered by the initiation of the eastward movement of the Amur Plate and the collision of the Izu block with central Honshu. The uncertainty of predictions beyond steady-state crustal deformation would, in general, increase for long-term predictions using the extrapolation procedure. Consequently, future geological and tectonic disturbances in Japan can be estimated with relatively high reliability for the next 100,000 years. (author)

  14. Long-term outcomes following laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding: postoperative psychological sequelae predict outcome at 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholtz, Samantha; Bidlake, Louise; Morgan, John; Fiennes, Alberic; El-Etar, Ashraf; Lacey, John Hubert; McCluskey, Sara

    2007-09-01

    NICE guidelines state that patients with psychological contra-indications should not be considered for bariatric surgery, including Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding (LAGB) surgery as treatment of morbid obesity, although no consistent correlation between psychiatric illness and long-term outcome in LAGB has been established. This is to our knowledge the first study to evaluate long-term outcomes in LAGB for a full range of DSM-IV defined psychiatric and eating disorders, and forms part of a research portfolio developed by the authors aimed at defining psychological predictors of bariatric surgery in the short-, medium- and long-term. Case notes of 37 subjects operated on between April 1997 and June 2000, who had undergone structured clinical interview during pre-surgical assessment to yield diagnoses of mental and eating disorders according to DSM-IV criteria were analyzed according to a set of operationally defined criteria. Statistical analysis was carried out to compare those with a poor outcome and those considered to have a good outcome in terms of psychiatric profile. In this group of mainly female, Caucasian subjects, ranging in age from 27 to 60 years, one-third were diagnosed with a mental disorder according to DSM-IV criteria. The development of postoperative DSM-IV defined binge eating disorder (BED) or depression strongly predicted poor surgical outcome, but pre-surgical psychiatric factors alone did not. Although pre-surgical psychiatric assessment alone cannot predict outcome, an absence of preoperative psychiatric illness should not reassure surgeons who should be mindful of postoperative psychiatric sequelae, particularly BED. The importance of providing an integrated biopsychosocial model of care in bariatric teams is highlighted.

  15. Long-term characteristics of geological conditions in Japan. Pt. 1. Fundamental concept for future's prediction of geological conditions and the subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Kazuhiro; Chigira, Masahiro.

    1997-01-01

    It is very important to evaluate the long-term stability of geological conditions such as volcanic activity, uplift-subsidence, earthquakes, faulting and sea level change when the long-term safety performance of HLW geological disposal is investigated. We proposed the extrapolation method using the geological date obtained in the geologic time of the last 500 ka to predict the future's tectonic movements in Japan. Furthermore, we extract geological conditions that would affect the long-term safety of HLW geological disposal with regard to direct and indirect radionuclide release scenarios. As a result, it was concluded that volcanic activity and tectonic movements including faulting and uplift-subsidence, should be considered and their surveying system and evaluating method should be developed. (author)

  16. Group long-term care insurance: decision-making factors and implications for financing long-term care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stum, Marlene S

    2008-01-01

    This study proposes and tests a systemic family decision-making framework to understand group long-term care insurance (LTCI) enrollment decisions. A random sample of public employees who were offered group LTCI as a workplace benefit were examined. Findings reveal very good predictive efficacy for the overall conceptual framework with a pseudo R2 value of .687, and reinforced the contributions of factors within the family system. Enrollees were more likely to have discussed the decision with others, used information sources, and had prior experience when compared to non-enrollees. Perceived health status, financial knowledge, attitudes regarding the role of private insurance, risk taking, and coverage features were additional factors related to enrollment decisions. The findings help to inform policymakers about the potential of LTCI as one strategy for financing long-term care.

  17. Life-long diseases need life-long treatment: long-term safety of ciclosporin in canine atopic dermatitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuttall, Tim; Reece, Douglas; Roberts, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    Ciclosporin (Atopica; Novartis Animal Health) has been licensed for canine atopic dermatitis (AD) since 2002. Adverse events (AEs) have been reported in 55 per cent of 759 dogs in 15 clinical trials, but are rare in pharmacovigilance data (71.81 AEs/million capsules sold). Gastrointestinal reactions were most common, but were mild and rarely required intervention. Other AEs were rare (≤1 per cent in clinical trials; metabolism is not clinically significant for normal dogs. Concomitant treatment with most drugs is safe. Effects on cytochrome P450 and MDR1 P-glycoprotein activity may elevate plasma ciclosporin concentrations, but short-term changes are not clinically significant. Monitoring of complete blood counts, urinalysis or ciclosporin levels is not justified except with higher than recommended doses and/or long-term concurrent immunosuppressive drugs. Ciclosporin is not a contraindication for killed (including rabies) vaccines, but the licensed recommendation is that live vaccination is avoided during treatment. In conclusion, ciclosporin has a positive risk-benefit profile for the long-term management of canine AD. PMID:24682696

  18. [Disorders of lipid and glucose metabolism. Long-term adverse effects of antiretroviral therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landauer, N; Goebel, F D

    2002-04-09

    In addition to readily controllable short-term side effects, highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) also has long-term side effects: lipodystrophy syndrome, hyperlipoproteinemia, insulin resistance, elevated glucose tolerance sometimes leading to diabetes mellitus and lactic acidosis. The pathogenesis remains uncertain although various hypotheses have been advanced. A number of approaches for the treatment of lipodystrophy are available, the effects of which, however, have not been confirmed by study results. Hyperlipoproteinemia probably means an increased cardiovascular risk, but a final pronouncement on this is not yet possible. Fibrates and statins are currently applied for treatment, but interactions with HAART medicaments have to be considered. HAART-induced diabetes mellitus presents clinically as type 2 diabetes, and is treated accordingly.

  19. Detection of Adverse Reaction to Drugs in Elderly Patients through Predictive Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael San-Miguel Carrasco

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Geriatrics Medicine constitutes a clinical research field in which data analytics, particularly predictive modeling, can deliver compelling, reliable and long-lasting benefits, as well as non-intuitive clinical insights and net new knowledge. The research work described in this paper leverages predictive modeling to uncover new insights related to adverse reaction to drugs in elderly patients. The differentiation factor that sets this research exercise apart from traditional clinical research is the fact that it was not designed by formulating a particular hypothesis to be validated. Instead, it was data-centric, with data being mined to discover relationships or correlations among variables. Regression techniques were systematically applied to data through multiple iterations and under different configurations. The obtained results after the process was completed are explained and discussed next.

  20. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mould, R F; Lederman, M; Tai, P; Wong, J K M

    2002-01-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  1. Radiomic features from the peritumoral brain parenchyma on treatment-naive multi-parametric MR imaging predict long versus short-term survival in glioblastoma multiforme: Preliminary findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasanna, Prateek; Patel, Jay; Madabhushi, Anant; Tiwari, Pallavi [Case Western Reserve University, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Cleveland, OH (United States); Partovi, Sasan [University Hospitals Case Medical Center, Case Western Reserve School of Medicine, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2017-10-15

    Despite 90 % of glioblastoma (GBM) recurrences occurring in the peritumoral brain zone (PBZ), its contribution in patient survival is poorly understood. The current study leverages computerized texture (i.e. radiomic) analysis to evaluate the efficacy of PBZ features from pre-operative MRI in predicting long- (>18 months) versus short-term (<7 months) survival in GBM. Sixty-five patient examinations (29 short-term, 36 long-term) with gadolinium-contrast T{sub 1w}, FLAIR and T{sub 2w} sequences from the Cancer Imaging Archive were employed. An expert manually segmented each study as: enhancing lesion, PBZ and tumour necrosis. 402 radiomic features (capturing co-occurrence, grey-level dependence and directional gradients) were obtained for each region. Evaluation was performed using threefold cross-validation, such that a subset of studies was used to select the most predictive features, and the remaining subset was used to evaluate their efficacy in predicting survival. A subset of ten radiomic 'peritumoral' MRI features, suggestive of intensity heterogeneity and textural patterns, was found to be predictive of survival (p = 1.47 x 10{sup -5}) as compared to features from enhancing tumour, necrotic regions and known clinical factors. Our preliminary analysis suggests that radiomic features from the PBZ on routine pre-operative MRI may be predictive of long- versus short-term survival in GBM. (orig.)

  2. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

    2016-02-01

    Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

  3. A strategy for evaluating the long-term stability of hole-plugging materials in their geological environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, S.J.

    1980-01-01

    Material used to plug boreholes will not in general be in chemical equilibrium with its host rock. Adverse long-term performance of a plug can involve changes in phase assemblage in the plug/rock system which are difficult to observe at low temperatures in real time. The thermodynamics of multiphase equilibria provides a technique of predicting what phase changes might occur. The thermodynamic treatment of plug/rock systems utilizes (1) a formulation of possible chemical reactions among phases in the system and (2) determinations of changes in values of Gibbs' free energies for the hypothetical reactions, to identify the theoretically-permitted reactions which could degrade plug performance. Time-dependent prediction of phase changes requires a knowledge of rate laws and constants for specific reactions whose mechanisms are well known

  4. Adverse events of anti-tumor necrosis factor α therapy in ankylosing spondylitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Tong

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the prevalence of short-term and long-term adverse events associated with tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α blocker treatment in Chinese Han patients suffering from ankylosing spondylitis (AS.The study included 402 Chinese Han AS patients treated with TNF-α blockers. Baseline data was collected. All patients were monitored for adverse events 2 hours following administration. Long-term treatment was evaluated at 8, 12, 52 and 104 weeks follow-up for 172 patients treated with TNF-α blockers.Short-term adverse events occurred in 20.15% (81/402, including rash (3.5%; 14/402, pruritus (1.2%; 5/402, nausea (2.2%; 9/402, headache (0.7%; 3/402, skin allergies (4.0%; 16/402, fever (0.5%; 2/402, palpitations (3.0%; 12/402, dyspnea (0.5%; 2/402, chest pain (0.2%; 1/402, [corrected] abdominal pain (1.0%; 4/402, hypertension (2.2%; 9/402, papilledema (0.5%; 2/402, laryngeal edema (0.2%; 1/402 and premature ventricular contraction (0.2%; 1/402. Long-term adverse events occurred in 59 (34.3%; 59/172 patients, including pneumonia (7.6%; 13/172, urinary tract infections (9.9%; 17/172, otitis media (4.7%; 8/172, tuberculosis are (3.5%; 6/172 [corrected], abscess (1.2%; 2/172, oral candidiasis (0.6%; 1/172, elevation of transaminase (1.7%; 3/172, anemia (1.2%; 2/172, hematuresis (0.6%; 1/172, constipation (2.3%; 4/172, weight loss (0.6%; 1/172, exfoliative dermatitis (0.6%; 1/172. CRP, ESR and disease duration were found to be associated with an increased risk of immediate and long-term adverse events (P<0.05. Long-term treatment with Infliximab was associated with more adverse events than rhTNFR-Fc (P<0.01.This study reports on the prevalence of adverse events in short-term and long-term treatment with TNF-α blocker monotherapy in Chinese Han AS patients. Duration of disease, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and c-reactive protein serum levels were found to be associated with increased adverse events with anti-TNF-α therapy. Long-term

  5. Super long-term creep tests of advanced HP and IP rotor steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchizhik, A A [The Polzunov Central Boiler and Turbine Institute, Department the Fatigue Life of Materials for Power Plans Equipment, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    1999-12-31

    A creep model has been developed for predicting the long-term creep behavior, in excess of 200,000 h for advanced materials.The new creep theory is based on a continuum microdamage model and is used to calculate the fields of stress and strain and wedge and cavities damage in critical components of steam and gas turbines. The application of this new model increases the reliability and service life of modern turbines. The accuracy of the model to predict long - term creep behavior, creep ductility was verified using the data bank of super long-term creep tests of advanced materials. (orig.) 12 refs.

  6. Super long-term creep tests of advanced HP and IP rotor steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchizhik, A.A. [The Polzunov Central Boiler and Turbine Institute, Department the Fatigue Life of Materials for Power Plans Equipment, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    1998-12-31

    A creep model has been developed for predicting the long-term creep behavior, in excess of 200,000 h for advanced materials.The new creep theory is based on a continuum microdamage model and is used to calculate the fields of stress and strain and wedge and cavities damage in critical components of steam and gas turbines. The application of this new model increases the reliability and service life of modern turbines. The accuracy of the model to predict long - term creep behavior, creep ductility was verified using the data bank of super long-term creep tests of advanced materials. (orig.) 12 refs.

  7. Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

    2012-05-22

    No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

  8. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cho

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The APEC Climate Center (APCC produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1 the Simple Bias Correction (SBC method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2 the Moving Window Regression (MWR method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3 the Climate Index Regression (CIR method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4 the Integrated Time Regression (ITR method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  9. Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

  10. Marijuana effects on long-term memory assessment and retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darley, C F; Tinklenberg, J R; Roth, W T; Vernon, S; Kopell, B S

    1977-05-09

    The ability of 16 college-educated male subjects to recall from long-term memory a series of common facts was tested during intoxication with marijuana extract calibrated to 0.3 mg/kg delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol and during placebo conditions. The subjects' ability to assess their memory capabilities was then determined by measuring how certain they were about the accuracy of their recall performance and by having them predict their performance on a subsequent recognition test involving the same recall items. Marijuana had no effect on recall or recognition performance. These results do not support the view that marijuana provides access to facts in long-term storage which are inaccessible during non-intoxication. During both marijuana and placebo conditions, subjects could accurately predict their recognition memory performance. Hence, marijuana did not alter the subjects' ability to accurately assess what information resides in long-term memory even though they did not have complete access to that information.

  11. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  12. Symptoms of delirium predict incident delirium in older long-term care residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Martin G; McCusker, Jane; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric

    2013-06-01

    Detection of long-term care (LTC) residents at risk of delirium may lead to prevention of this disorder. The primary objective of this study was to determine if the presence of one or more Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) core symptoms of delirium at baseline assessment predicts incident delirium. Secondary objectives were to determine if the number or the type of symptoms predict incident delirium. The study was a secondary analysis of data collected for a prospective study of delirium among older residents of seven LTC facilities in Montreal and Quebec City, Canada. The Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE), CAM, Delirium Index (DI), Hierarchic Dementia Scale, Barthel Index, and Cornell Scale for Depression were completed at baseline. The MMSE, CAM, and DI were repeated weekly for six months. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to determine if baseline symptoms predict incident delirium. Of 273 residents, 40 (14.7%) developed incident delirium. Mean (SD) time to onset of delirium was 10.8 (7.4) weeks. When one or more CAM core symptoms were present at baseline, the Hazard Ratio (HR) for incident delirium was 3.5 (95% CI = 1.4, 8.9). The HRs for number of symptoms present ranged from 2.9 (95% CI = 1.0, 8.3) for one symptom to 3.8 (95% CI = 1.3, 11.0) for three symptoms. The HR for one type of symptom, fluctuation, was 2.2 (95% CI = 1.2, 4.2). The presence of CAM core symptoms at baseline assessment predicts incident delirium in older LTC residents. These findings have potentially important implications for clinical practice and research in LTC settings.

  13. Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Ernest Y.

    1992-01-01

    Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

  14. Modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallis, I.G.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this working paper is to describe modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations. Ideally, it would be possible to use aquatic population models: (1) to predict changes in the health and well-being of all aquatic populations as a result of changing the composition, amount and location of radionuclide discharges; (2) to compare the effects of steady, fluctuating and accidental releases of radionuclides; and (3) to evaluate the combined impact of the discharge of radionuclides and other wastes, and natural environmental stresses on aquatic populations. At the onset it should be stated that there is no existing model which can achieve this ideal performance. However, modelling skills and techniques are available to develop useful aquatic population models. This paper discusses the considerations involved in developing these models and briefly describes the various types of population models which have been developed to date

  15. Harmonic Enhancement in Low Bitrate Audio Coding Using an Efficient Long-Term Predictor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Jeongook

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes audio coding using an efficient long-term prediction method to enhance the perceptual quality of audio codecs to speech input signals at low bit-rates. The MPEG-4 AAC-LTP exploited a similar concept, but its improvement was not significant because of small prediction gain due to long prediction lags and aliased components caused by the transformation with a time-domain aliasing cancelation (TDAC technique. The proposed algorithm increases the prediction gain by employing a deharmonizing predictor and a long-term compensation filter. The look-back memory elements are first constructed by applying the de-harmonizing predictor to the input signal, then the prediction residual is encoded and decoded by transform audio coding. Finally, the long-term compensation filter is applied to the updated look-back memory of the decoded prediction residual to obtain synthesized signals. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm has much lower spectral distortion and higher perceptual quality than conventional approaches especially for harmonic signals, such as voiced speech.

  16. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Diana M; Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-03-01

    Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve's capacity to classify participants likely to lose models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  17. Predicting long-term sickness absence and early retirement pension from self-reported work ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sell, Lea; Bültmann, Ute; Rugulies, Reiner Ernst

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market.......The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market....

  18. Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

    2017-02-01

    UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

  19. Hypoxic Prostate/Muscle PO2 Ratio Predicts for Outcome in Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer: Long-Term Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turaka, Aruna; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Horwitz, Eric M.; Greenberg, Richard E.; Movsas, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To correlate tumor oxygenation status with long-term biochemical outcome after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Custom-made Eppendorf PO 2 microelectrodes were used to obtain PO 2 measurements from the prostate (P), focused on positive biopsy locations, and normal muscle tissue (M), as a control. A total of 11,516 measurements were obtained in 57 men with localized prostate cancer immediately before prostate brachytherapy was given. The Eppendorf histograms provided the median PO 2 , mean PO 2 , and % 2 ratio on BF. Results: With a median follow-up time of 8 years, 12 men had ASTRO BF and 8 had Phoenix BF. On multivariate analysis, P/M PO 2 ratio 2 ratio 2 ratio) significantly predicts for poor long-term biochemical outcome, suggesting that novel hypoxic strategies should be investigated.

  20. Maize Stem Response to Long-Term Attack by Sesamia nonagrioides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor M. Rodriguez

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Plants defend themselves against herbivores by activating a plethora of genetic and biochemical mechanisms aimed at reducing plant damage and insect survival. The short-term plant response to insect attack is well understood, but less is known about the maintenance of this response over time. We performed transcriptomic and metabolomics analyses in order to identify genes and metabolites involved in the long-term response of maize to attack by the corn borer Sesamina nonagrioides. To determine the role of elicitors present in caterpillar secretions, we also evaluated the response of maize stem challenged with insect regurgitates. The integrative analysis of the omics results revealed that the long-term response in maize is characterized by repression of the primary metabolism and a strong redox response, mainly mediated by germin-like proteins to produce anti-nutritive and toxic compounds that reduce insect viability, and with the glutathione–ascorbate cycle being crucial to minimize the adverse effects of reactive oxygen species (ROS on the plant. Our results suggest that different defense mechanisms are involved in the long-term response compared to those reported during the early response. We also observed a marginal effect of the caterpillar regurgitates on the long-term defensive response.

  1. Constraints on the affinity term for modeling long-term glass dissolution rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourcier, W.L.; Carroll, S.A.; Phillips, B.L.

    1993-11-01

    Predictions of long-term glass dissolution rates are highly dependent on the form of the affinity term in the rate expression. Analysis of the quantitative effect of saturation state on glass dissolution rate for CSG glass (a simple analog of SRL-165 glass), shows that a simple (1-Q/K) affinity term does not match experimental results. Our data at 100 degree C show that the data is better fit by an affinity term having the form (1 - (Q/K) 1 /σ) where σ = 10

  2. Self-reported musculoskeletal pain predicts long-term increase in general health care use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael; Søgaard, Karen

    2014-01-01

    reported during the past two weeks from the Danish National Cohort Study were merged with data from the Danish National Health Insurance Registry and the National Patient Registry containing information on consultations in the Danish primary and secondary care sector. Absolute and relative rates for all......Aims: Musculoskeletal pain and disability is a modern epidemic and a major reason for seeking health care. The aim of this study is to determine absolute and relative rates of care seeking over 20 years for adults reporting musculoskeletal complaints. Methods: Interview data on musculoskeletal pain...... to any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS SELF-REPORT OF MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST TWO WEEKS PREDICTS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM INCREASE IN GENERAL USE OF HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN BOTH THE PRIMARY AND THE SECONDARY HEALTH CARE SECTOR:...

  3. Multilevel analysis of workplace and individual risk factors for long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Labriola, Merete; Christensen, Karl B; Lund, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine if psychosocial and physical work-environment factors predict long-term sickness absence (>8 weeks) at both the individual and the workplace level. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were collected in a prospective study in 52 Danish workplaces....... Psychosocial factors were aggregated as workplace means. We used multilevel logistic regression models with psychosocial factors as predictors of long-term sickness absence over 5 years based on data from a national absence register. RESULTS: Long-term sickness absence was predicted by physical work...

  4. Predicting Long-Term Cognitive Outcome Following Breast Cancer with Pre-Treatment Resting State fMRI and Random Forest Machine Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesler, Shelli R; Rao, Arvind; Blayney, Douglas W; Oakley-Girvan, Ingrid A; Karuturi, Meghan; Palesh, Oxana

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to determine if resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acquired at pre-treatment baseline could accurately predict breast cancer-related cognitive impairment at long-term follow-up. We evaluated 31 patients with breast cancer (age 34-65) prior to any treatment, post-chemotherapy and 1 year later. Cognitive testing scores were normalized based on data obtained from 43 healthy female controls and then used to categorize patients as impaired or not based on longitudinal changes. We measured clustering coefficient, a measure of local connectivity, by applying graph theory to baseline resting state fMRI and entered these metrics along with relevant patient-related and medical variables into random forest classification. Incidence of cognitive impairment at 1 year follow-up was 55% and was predicted by classification algorithms with up to 100% accuracy ( p breast cancer. This information could inform treatment decision making by identifying patients at highest risk for long-term cognitive impairment.

  5. Evaluation of long term creep-fatigue life for type 304 stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Ueno, Fumiyoshi; Aoto, Kazumi; Ichimiya, Masakazu; Wada, Yusaku

    1992-01-01

    The long term creep-fatigue life of type 304 stainless steel was evaluated by the creep-fatigue life prediction method based on a linear damage fraction rule. The displacement controlled creep-fatigue tests were carried out, and the time to failure of longer than 10000 hours was obtained. The creep damage of long term creep-fatigue was evaluated by taking into account the stress relaxation behavior with elastic follow-up during the hold period. The relationship between life reduction of creep-fatigue and fracture mode was provided by the creep cavity growth. The results of this study are summarized as follows; (1) The long term creep-fatigue data can be reasonably evaluated by the present method. The predicted lives were within a factor of 3 of the observed ones. (2) The present method provides the capability to predict the long term creep-fatigue life at lower temperatures as well as that at the creep dominant temperature. (3) The value of creep damage for the long term creep-fatigue data increased by elastic follow-up. The creep-fatigue damage diagram intercepted between 0.3 and 1 can represent the observed creep-fatigue damages. (4) The cavity growth depends on the hold time. The fracture of long term creep-fatigue is caused by the intergranular cavity growth. The intergranular fracture of creep-fatigue is initiated by the cavity growth and followed by the microcrack propagation along grain boundaries starting from creep cavities. (author)

  6. Absenteeism screening questionnaire (ASQ): a new tool for predicting long-term absenteeism among workers with low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truchon, Manon; Schmouth, Marie-Ève; Côté, Denis; Fillion, Lise; Rossignol, Michel; Durand, Marie-José

    2012-03-01

    Over the last decades, psychosocial factors were identified by many studies as significant predictive variables in the development of disability related to common low back disorders, which thus contributed to the development of biopsychosocial prevention interventions. Biopsychosocial interventions were supposed to be more effective than usual interventions in improving different outcomes. Unfortunately, most of these interventions show inconclusive results. The use of screening questionnaires was proposed as a solution to improve their efficacy. The aim of this study was to validate a new screening questionnaire to identify workers at risk of being absent from work for more than 182 cumulative days and who are more susceptible to benefit from prevention interventions. Injured workers receiving income replacement benefits from the Quebec Compensation Board (n = 535) completed a 67-item questionnaire in the sub-acute stage of pain and provided information about work-related events 6 and 12 months later. Reliability and validity of the 67-item questionnaire were determined respectively by test-retest reliability and internal consistency analysis, as well as by construct validity analyses. The Cox regression model and the maximum likelihood method were used to fix a model allowing calculation of a probability of absence of more than 182 days. Criterion validity and discriminative capacity of this model were calculated. Sub-sections from the 67-item questionnaire were moderately to highly correlated 2 weeks later (r = 0.52-0.80) and showed moderate to good internal consistency (0.70-0.94). Among the 67-item questionnaire, six sub-sections and variables (22 items) were predictive of long-term absence from work: fear-avoidance beliefs related to work, return to work expectations, annual family income before-taxes, last level of education attained, work schedule and work concerns. The area under the ROC curve was 73%. The significant predictive variables of long-term

  7. Thyroiditis de Quervain. Are there predictive factors for long-term hormone-replacement?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenke, S; Klett, R; Braun, S; Zimny, M

    2013-01-01

    Subacute thyroiditis is a usually self-limiting disease of the thyroid. However, approximately 0.5-15% of the patients require permanent thyroxine substitution. Aim was to determine predictive factors for the necessity of long-term hormone-replacement (LTH). We retrospectively reviewed the records of 72 patients with subacute thyroiditis. Morphological and serological parameters as well as type of therapy were tested as predictive factors of consecutive hypothyroidism. Mean age was 49 ± 11 years, f/m-ratio was 4.5 : 1. Thyroid pain and signs of hyperthyroidism were leading symptoms. Initial subclinical or overt hyperthyroidism was found in 20% and 37%, respectively. Within six months after onset 15% and 1.3% of the patients developed subclinical or overt hypothyroidism, respectively. At latest follow-up 26% were classified as liable to LTH. At onset the thyroid was enlarged in 64%, and at latest follow-up in 8.3%, with a significant reduction of the thyroid volume after three months. At the endpoint the thyroid volume was less in patients in the LTH group compared with the non-LTH group (41.7% vs. 57.2% of sex-adjusted upper norm, p = 0.041). Characteristic ultrasonographic features occurred in 74% of the patients in both lobes. Serological and morphological parameters as well as type of therapy were not related with the need of LTH. In this study the proportion of patients who received LTH was 26%. At the endpoint these patients had a lower thyroid volume compared with euthyroid patients. No predictive factors for LTH were found.

  8. Long-term survival and function after suspected gram-negative sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perl, T M; Dvorak, L; Hwang, T; Wenzel, R P

    1995-07-26

    To determine the long-term (> 3 months) survival of septic patients, to develop mathematical models that predict patients likely to survive long-term, and to measure the health and functional status of surviving patients. A large tertiary care university hospital and an associated Veterans Affairs Medical Center. From December 1986 to December 1990, a total of 103 patients with suspected gram-negative sepsis entered a double-blind, placebo-controlled efficacy trial of monoclonal antiendotoxin antibody. Of these, we followed up 100 patients for 7667 patient-months. Beginning in May 1992, we reviewed hospital records and contacted all known survivors. We measured the health status of all surviving patients. The determinants of long-term survival (up to 6 years) were identified through two Cox proportional hazard regression models: one that included patient characteristics identified at the time of sepsis (bedside model) and another that included bedside, infection-related, and treatment characteristics (overall model). Of the 60 patients in the cohort who died at a median interval of 30.5 days after sepsis, 32 died within the first month of the septic episode, seven died within 3 months, and four more died within 6 months. In the bedside multivariate model constructed to predict long-term survival, large hazard ratios (HRs) were associated with severity of underlying illness as classified by McCabe and Jackson criteria (for rapidly fatal disease, HR = 30.4, P respiratory distress syndrome (HR = 2.3; P = .02) predicted patients most likely to die. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was not a significant predictor of outcome when either model included the simpler McCabe and Jackson classification of underlying disease severity. We compared the health status scores with norms for the general population and found that patients with resolved sepsis reported more physical dysfunction (P bedridden), suggesting that the patients' physical function

  9. Acute and long-term management of food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Silva, D; Geromi, M; Panesar, S S

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Allergic reactions to food can have serious consequences. This systematic review summarizes evidence about the immediate management of reactions and longer-term approaches to minimize adverse impacts. METHODS: Seven bibliographic databases were searched from their inception to September...... management for non-life-threatening reactions. H1-antihistamines may be of benefit, but this evidence was in part derived from studies on those with cross-reactive birch pollen allergy. Regarding long-term management, avoiding the allergenic food or substituting an alternative was commonly recommended...... helpful, but allergen-specific immunotherapy may be disease modifying and therefore warrants further exploration. CONCLUSIONS: Food allergy can be debilitating and affects a significant number of people. However, the evidence base about acute and longer-term management is weak and needs to be strengthened...

  10. Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaebeom Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

  11. Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jaebeom; Lee, Kyoung-Chan; Lee, Young-Joo

    2018-05-09

    Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

  12. Antimicrobial stewardship in long term care facilities: what is effective?

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolle, Lindsay E

    2014-01-01

    Intense antimicrobial use in long term care facilities promotes the emergence and persistence of antimicrobial resistant organisms and leads to adverse effects such as C. difficile colitis. Guidelines recommend development of antimicrobial stewardship programs for these facilities to promote optimal antimicrobial use. However, the effectiveness of these programs or the contribution of any specific program component is not known. For this review, publications describing evaluation of antimicro...

  13. Nutritional predictors for postoperative short-term and long-term outcomes of patients with gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, Mitsuro; Mizuno, Akira; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Iwata, Naoki; Hayashi, Masamichi; Yamada, Suguru; Nakayama, Goro; Fujii, Tsutomu; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Koike, Masahiko; Takami, Hideki; Niwa, Yukiko; Murotani, Kenta; Kodera, Yasuhiro

    2016-06-01

    Evidence indicates that impaired immunocompetence and nutritional status adversely affect short-term and long-term outcomes of patients with cancer. We aimed to evaluate the clinical significance of preoperative immunocompetence and nutritional status according to Onodera's prognostic nutrition index (PNI) among patients who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC).This study included 260 patients with stage II/III GC who underwent R0 resection. The predictive values of preoperative nutritional status for postoperative outcome (morbidity and prognosis) were evaluated. Onodera's PNI was calculated as follows: 10 × serum albumin (g/dL) + 0.005 × lymphocyte count (per mm).The mean preoperative PNI was 47.8. The area under the curve for predicting complications was greater for PNI compared with the serum albumin concentration or lymphocyte count. Multivariate analysis identified preoperative PNI < 47 as an independent predictor of postoperative morbidity. Moreover, patients in the PNI < 47 group experienced significantly shorter overall and disease-free survival compared with those in the PNI ≥ 47 group, notably because of a higher prevalence of hematogenous metastasis as the initial recurrence. Subgroup analysis according to disease stage and postoperative adjuvant treatment revealed that the prognostic significance of PNI was more apparent in patients with stage II GC and in those who received adjuvant chemotherapy.Preoperative PNI is easy and inexpensive to determine, and our findings indicate that PNI served as a significant predictor of postoperative morbidity, prognosis, and recurrence patterns of patients with stage II/III GC.

  14. The prediction of the long-term behaviour of glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtois, Ch.; Regent, A.; Plas, F.

    1997-01-01

    Several experts draw a conclusion about the scientific content of this week-long seminar. All agree to highlight the variety and quality of the work done. It appears that there is a consensus about the phenomenology of the long-term behaviour of glasses. All the parameters that are likely to intervene in alteration processes have been identified, but some particular points require further studies: - the impact of alpha, beta and gamma irradiation, - the alteration of glass in no-saturated water, - the coupling effect with the materials surrounding glass (metal canister, over-container...), - the optimization of glass composition to deal with high burn-up spent fuels, - the relation between the formation free energy of glasses and their alteration kinetics, - the release of radionuclides trapped in glass, and - the use of mutual analogue. (A.C.)

  15. Institutionalization and Organizational Long-term Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise L. Fleck

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Institutionalization processes have an ambivalent effect on organizational long-term success. Even though they foster organizational stability and permanence, they also bring about rigidity and resistance to change. As a result, successful organizations are likely to lose their competitive advantage over time. The paper addresses this issue through the investigation of the institutionalization processes of two long-lived companies: General Electric, a firm that has been a long-term success and its rival, Westinghouse, which was broken up after eleven decades of existence. The longitudinal, multilevel analysis of firms and industry has identified two different modes of organizational institutionalization. The reactive mode gives rise to rigidity and change resistance, much like institutional theory predicts; the proactive mode, on the other hand, neutralizes those negative effects of institutionalization processes. In the reactive mode, structure predominates. In the proactive mode, agency plays a major role in organizational institutionalization, and in managing the organization’s relations with the environment, clearly contributing to environmental institutionalization.

  16. Subintimal angioplasty: predictors of long-term success.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Keeling, Aoife N

    2009-08-01

    To determine the clinical outcomes and success rates after percutaneous subintimal angioplasty (SIA) in patients with lower-limb occlusive lesions causing intermittent claudication (IC) or critical limb ischemia (CLI) at midterm to long-term follow-up. The secondary aim was to elicit factors predictive of a successful outcome.

  17. Long-term associations between serum lipids and panretinal photocoagulation in type 1 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Jesper Skovlund; Mejnert Jørgensen, Trine; Green, Anders

    2013-01-01

    To examine the predictive value of serum lipids on the need for panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) treatment in a long-term follow-up of a cohort of Danish type 1 diabetic patients.......To examine the predictive value of serum lipids on the need for panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) treatment in a long-term follow-up of a cohort of Danish type 1 diabetic patients....

  18. Predictors and long-term health outcomes of eating disorders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie M O'Brien

    Full Text Available Anorexia and bulimia nervosa may have long-term effects on overall and reproductive health. We studied predictors of self-reported eating disorders and associations with later health events. We estimated odds ratios (ORs for these associations in 47,759 participants from the Sister Study. Two percent (n = 967 of participants reported a history of an eating disorder. Risk factors included being non-Hispanic white, having well-educated parents, recent birth cohort (OR = 2.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.01-2.32 per decade, and having a sister with an eating disorder (OR = 3.68, CI: 1.92-7.02. As adults, women who had experienced eating disorders were more likely to smoke, to be underweight, to have had depression, to have had a later first birth, to have experienced bleeding or nausea during pregnancy, or to have had a miscarriage or induced abortion. In this descriptive analysis, we identified predictors of and possible long-term health consequences of eating disorders. Eating disorders may have become more common over time. Interventions should focus on prevention and mitigation of long-term adverse health effects.

  19. Long-term deflection and flexural behavior of reinforced concrete beams with recycled aggregate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Won-Chang; Yun, Hyun-Do

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Long-term deformation of recycled aggregate concrete beams was examined. • Three beams were monitored for over 380 days. • Influence of recycled aggregate on the long-term performance. • Comparison of that between normal and recycled aggregate concrete beams. - Abstract: This paper presents experimental results on the long-term deformations of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) beams for over 1 year (380 days) and flexural behavior of RAC beams after exposure to sustained loading. Three reinforced concrete (RC) beam specimens were fabricated with replacement percentage of aggregate (100% natural aggregate, 100% recycled coarse aggregate, and 50% recycled fine aggregate) and subjected to sustained loading that is 50% of the nominal flexural capacity. During the sustained loading period (380 days), the long-term deflection due to creep and shrinkage was recorded and compared with predicted behavior that was determined based on current specifications (ACI 318 Code). After measuring the long-term deflection for 380 days, four-point bending tests were conducted to investigate the flexural behavior of RC beams after exposure to sustained loading and determine any reduction in flexural capacity. A modified equation to predict the long-term deflection values for RC beams with recycled aggregate is proposed, and the experimental results are compared with the predictions calculated using the ACI 318 Code provisions

  20. Long-term management of GERD in the elderly with pantoprazole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Calabrese

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Carlo Calabrese, Anna Fabbri, Giulio Di FeboDepartment of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology, University of Bologna, ItalyAbstract: The prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD increases with age and elderly are more likely to develop severe disease. Older patients often complain of less severe or frequent heartburn than younger patients and they may present with atypical symptoms such as dysphagia, weight loss, or extraesophageal symptoms. Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs are central in the management of GERD and are unchallenged with regards to their efficacy. They are considered safe and more effective than histamine receptor antagonists for healing esophagitis and for preventing its recurrence using a long term maintenance treatment. PPI have minimal side effects and few slight drug interactions and are considered safe for long term treatment. Pantoprazole is significantly effective both for acute and long-term treatment with excellent control of relapse and symptoms. It is well tolerated even for long-term therapy and its tolerability is optimal. Pantoprazole shows to have minimal interactions with other drugs because of a lower affinity for cytocrome P450 than older PPIs. Although the majority of elderly has concomitant illnesses and receive other drugs, this does not adversely effect the efficacy of pantoprazole because of its pharmacokinetics, which are independent of patient age. Clinical practice suggests that a low dose maintenance of PPIs should be used in older patients with GERD.Keywords: GERD, long-term management, pantoprazole, safety, efficacy, tolerability

  1. Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korinko M.D.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

  2. Long-term psychosocial consequences of surgical congenital malformations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diseth, Trond H; Emblem, Ragnhild

    2017-10-01

    Surgical congenital malformations often represent years of treatment, large number of hospital stays, treatment procedures, and long-term functional sequels affecting patients' psychosocial functioning. Both functional defects and psychosocial difficulties that occur commonly in childhood may pass through adolescence on to adulthood. This overview presents reports published over the past 3 decades to elucidate the long-term psychosocial consequences of surgical congenital malformations. Literature searches conducted on PubMed database revealed that less than 1% of all the records of surgical congenital malformations described long-term psychosocial consequences, but with diverse findings. This inconsistency may be due to methodological differences or deficiencies; especially in study design, patient sampling, and methods. Most of the studies revealed that the functional deficits may have great impact on patients' mental health, psychosocial functioning, and QoL; both short- and long-term negative consequences. Factors other than functional problems, e.g., repeated anesthesia, multiple hospitalization, traumatic treatment procedures, and parental dysfunctioning, may also predict long-term mental health and psychosocial functioning. Through multidisciplinary approach, pediatric surgeons should also be aware of deficits in emotional and psychosocial functioning. To achieve overall optimal psychosocial functioning, the challenge is to find a compromise between physically optimal treatment procedures and procedures that are not psychologically detrimental. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Long-term response to recombinant human growth hormone treatment: a new predictive mathematical method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migliaretti, G; Ditaranto, S; Guiot, C; Vannelli, S; Matarazzo, P; Cappello, N; Stura, I; Cavallo, F

    2018-07-01

    Recombinant GH has been offered to GH-deficient (GHD) subjects for more than 30 years, in order to improve height and growth velocity in children and to enhance metabolic effects in adults. The aim of our work is to describe the long-term effect of rhGH treatment in GHD pediatric patients, suggesting a growth prediction model. A homogeneous database is defined for diagnosis and treatment modalities, based on GHD patients afferent to Hospital Regina Margherita in Turin (Italy). In this study, 232 GHD patients are selected (204 idiopathic GHD and 28 organic GHD). Each measure is shown in terms of mean with relative standard deviations (SD) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). To estimate the final height of each patient on the basis of few measures, a mathematical growth prediction model [based on Gompertzian function and a mixed method based on the radial basis functions (RBFs) and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) models] was performed. The results seem to highlight the benefits of an early start of treatment, further confirming what is suggested by the literature. Generally, the RBF-PSO method shows a good reliability in the prediction of the final height. Indeed, RMSE is always lower than 4, i.e., in average the forecast will differ at most of 4 cm to the real value. In conclusion, the large and accurate database of Italian GHD patients allowed us to assess the rhGH treatment efficacy and compare the results with those obtained in other Countries. Moreover, we proposed and validated a new mathematical model forecasting the expected final height after therapy which was validated on our cohort.

  4. Speech perception under adverse conditions: Insights from behavioral, computational and neuroscience research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara eGuediche

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Adult speech perception reflects the long-term regularities of the native language, but it is also flexible such that it accommodates and adapts to adverse listening conditions and short-term deviations from native-language norms. The purpose of this review article is to examine how the broader neuroscience literature can inform and advance research efforts in understanding the neural basis of flexibility and adaptive plasticity in speech perception. In particular, we consider several domains of neuroscience research that offer insight into how perception can be adaptively tuned to short-term deviations while also maintaining without affecting the long-term learned regularities for mapping sensory input. We review several literatures to highlight the potential role of learning algorithms that rely on prediction error signals and discuss specific neural structures that are likely to contribute to such learning. Already, a few studies have alluded to a potential role of these mechanisms in adaptive plasticity in speech perception. Better understanding the application and limitations of these algorithms for the challenges of flexible speech perception under adverse conditions promises to inform theoretical models of speech.

  5. The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mroz, Thomas A.; Savage, Timothy H.

    2006-01-01

    Using NLSY data, we examine the long-term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes. Involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run. A theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational "catch-up" response. Using semiparametric techniques to control for the…

  6. Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care. PMID:26834327

  7. Prediction of long-term absence due to sickness in employees: development and validation of a multifactorial risk score in two cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airaksinen, Jaakko; Jokela, Markus; Virtanen, Marianna; Oksanen, Tuula; Koskenvuo, Markku; Pentti, Jaana; Vahtera, Jussi; Kivimäki, Mika

    2018-01-24

    Objectives This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for long-term sickness absence. Methods Survey responses on work- and lifestyle-related questions from 65 775 public-sector employees were linked to sickness absence records to develop a prediction score for medically-certified sickness absence lasting >9 days and ≥90 days. The score was externally validated using data from an independent population-based cohort of 13 527 employees. For both sickness absence outcomes, a full model including 46 candidate predictors was reduced to a parsimonious model using least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. Predictive performance of the model was evaluated using C-index and calibration plots. Results Variance explained in ≥90-day sickness absence by the full model was 12.5%. In the parsimonious model, the predictors included self-rated health (linear and quadratic term), depression, sex, age (linear and quadratic), socioeconomic position, previous sickness absences, number of chronic diseases, smoking, shift work, working night shift, and quadratic terms for body mass index and Jenkins sleep scale. The discriminative ability of the score was good (C-index 0.74 in internal and 0.73 in external validation). Calibration plots confirmed high correspondence between the predicted and observed risk. In >9-day sickness absence, the full model explained 15.2% of the variance explained, but the C-index of the parsimonious model was poor (<0.65). Conclusions Individuals' risk of a long-term sickness absence that lasts ≥90 days can be estimated using a brief risk score. The predictive performance of this score is comparable to those for established multifactorial risk algorithms for cardiovascular disease, such as the Framingham risk score.

  8. Serial Diffusion Tensor Imaging In Vivo Predicts Long-Term Functional Recovery and Histopathology in Rats following Different Severities of Spinal Cord Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Samir P.; Smith, Taylor D.; VanRooyen, Jenna L.; Powell, David; Cox, David H.; Sullivan, Patrick G.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in vivo to quantify temporally spinal cord injury (SCI) pathology in adult female Sprague-Dawley rats that were scanned prior to a moderate or severe upper lumbar contusion SCI. Injured rats were behaviorally tested for hind limb locomotion (Basso, Beattie, Bresnahan [BBB] scores) weekly for 4 weeks and scanned immediately after each session, ending with terminal gait analyses prior to euthanasia. As a measure of tissue integrity, fractional anisotropy (FA) values were significantly lower throughout the spinal cord in both injury cohorts at all time-points examined versus pre-injury. Moreover, FA values were significantly lower following severe versus moderate SCI at all time-points, and FA values at the injury epicenters at all time-points were significantly correlated with both spared white and gray matter volumes, as well as lesion volumes. Critically, quantified FA values at subacute (24 h) and all subsequent time-points were highly predictive of terminal behavior, reflected in significant correlations with both weekly BBB scores and terminal gait parameters. Critically, the finding that clinically relevant subacute (24 h) FA values accurately predict long-term functional recovery may obviate long-term studies to assess the efficacy of therapeutics tested experimentally or clinically. In summary, this study demonstrates a reproducible serial MRI procedure to predict the long-term impact of contusion SCI on both behavior and histopathology using subacute DTI metrics obtained in vivo to accurately predict multiple terminal outcome measures, which can be particularly valuable when comparing experimental interventions. PMID:26650623

  9. Long-Term Memory Biases Auditory Spatial Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Jacqueline F.; Moscovitch, Morris; Alain, Claude

    2017-01-01

    Long-term memory (LTM) has been shown to bias attention to a previously learned visual target location. Here, we examined whether memory-predicted spatial location can facilitate the detection of a faint pure tone target embedded in real world audio clips (e.g., soundtrack of a restaurant). During an initial familiarization task, participants…

  10. Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeon Jin Park

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

  11. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    2002-03-01

    Micro-structure of rock plays a essential role for their long-term behavior. For elucidating long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope (LSM) observation of joint surfaces of granite and Fourier analysis, 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, 3) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by LSM under uniaxial compression, and 4) a viscoelastic homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. Rock image processing and analysis become a fundamental procedure to determine rock surface discontinuities. But the complexity of rock surface discontinuities seems beyond the manual image processing method. In Chapter 2 a Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope that can acquire three-dimensional images is introduced to observe the rock roughness of a discontinuity. Then, scanning three-dimensional images are changed its data form in order to adapt various image analysis programs, and granitic rock roughness of discontinuities are displayed by graphic images. For example, these datas are analyzed by Discrete Fourier Transformation (DFT) program and Inverse Discrete Fourier Transformation (IDFT) program. Microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock. In Chapter 3 a progressive development of cracking in granite is revealed by using stereoscopic microscope under triaxial compression condition and by using LSM under uniaxial compression condition. With a viscoelastic theory applied in homogenization method, we can calculate macro behavior of medium influenced by its micro structure by analyse the long-term time-dependent behavior of granite under the same condition to the relaxation experiment. (author)

  12. Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mansson, K.N.T.; Frick, A.; Boraxbekk, C.J.; Marquand, A.F.; Williams, S.C.; Carlbring, P.; Andersson, G.; Furmark, T.

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge.

  13. Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88

  14. Survival and cardiovascular events after coarctation-repair in long-term follow-up (COAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambul Heck, P; Pabst von Ohain, J; Kaemmerer, H; Ewert, P; Hager, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term sequelae and events after coarctation repair are well described. However, the predictive value of variables from clinical follow-up investigation for late events and survival has rarely been investigated. All patients who participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for reevaluation of survival, current clinical status and major cardiovascular events. Of 273 eligible patients, 209 were available for follow-up. Nine patients had died at a median age of 46years (range 30-64years), five of them due to cardiovascular complications. Late mortality after surgical intervention was 5.7% with a median age of 41years (range 16-64years). Twenty-five patients had a major cardiovascular event: 12 had procedures at the aortic valve or aortic arch, 8 had procedures for restenosis, 2 had endocarditis, 2 had a cerebrovascular insult and 1 an aortic dissection. The presence of bicuspid aortic valve (p=0.009), brachial-ankle blood pressure gradient >20mmHg (p<0.001) and reduced left ventricular function (p=0.002) correlated with major cardiovascular events. Surgical correction of coarctation of the aorta shows fairly low mortality in the long-term follow-up. Late morbidities include recoarctation, but also the consequences of the hemodynamics produced by a congenital bicuspid aortic valve, presence of which is predictive for aortic valve procedures: however the predictive value of clinical variables is limited. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  15. Can large long-term investors capture illiquidity premiums

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Driessen, J.J.A.G.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we perform a literature study to assess whether large long-term investors can benefit from liquidity premiums in different asset classes. We both describe the theoretical predictions on liquidity premiums and portfolio choice with illiquidity, as well as empirical evidence on liquidity

  16. The Barrier code for predicting long-term concrete performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, R.; Rogers, V.C.; Shaw, R.A.

    1989-01-01

    There are numerous features incorporated into a LLW disposal facility that deal directly with critical safety objectives required by the NRC in 10 CFR 61. Engineered barriers or structures incorporating concrete are commonly being considered for waste disposal facilities. The Barrier computer code calculates the long-term degradation of concrete structures in LLW disposal facilities. It couples this degradation with water infiltration into the facility, nuclide leaching from the waste, contaminated water release from the facility, and associated doses to members of the critical population group. The concrete degradation methodology of Barrier is described

  17. Severe Spastic Contractures and Diabetes Mellitus Independently Predict Subsequent Minimal Trauma Fractures Among Long-Term Care Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Kuen; Leung, Man Fuk; Kwan, Chi Wai; Kwan, Joseph

    2016-11-01

    The study aimed to examine the epidemiology of hypertonic contractures and its relationship with minimal trauma fracture (MTF), and to determine the incidence and predictors of (MTF) in long-term care residents. This was a longitudinal cohort study of prospectively collected data. Participants were followed from March 2007 to March 2016 or until death. A 300-bed long-term care hospital in Hong Kong. All long-term care residents who were in need of continuous medical and nursing care for their activities of daily living. Information on patients' demographic data, severe contracture defined as a decrease of 50% or more of the normal passive range of joint movement of the joint, and severe limb spasticity defined by the Modified Ashworth Scale higher than grade 3, medical comorbidities, functional status, cognitive status, nutritional status including body mass index and serum albumin, past history of fractures, were evaluated as potential risk factors for subsequent MTF. Three hundred ninety-six residents [148 males, mean ± standard deviation (SD), age = 79 ± 16 years] were included for analysis. The presence of severe contracture was highly prevalent among the study population: 91% of residents had at least 1 severe contracture, and 41% of residents had severe contractures involving all 4 limbs. Moreover, there were a significant proportion of residents who had severe limb spasticity with the elbow flexors (32.4%) and knee flexors (33.9%) being the most commonly involved muscles. Twelve residents (3%) suffered from subsequent MTF over a median follow-up of 33 (SD = 30) months. Seven out of these 12 residents died during the follow-up period, with a mean survival of 17.8 months (SD = 12.6) after the fracture event. The following 2 factors were found to independently predict subsequent MTF in a multivariate Cox regression: bilateral severe spastic knee contractures (hazard ratio = 16.5, P contractures are common morbidities in long-term care residents

  18. Relationship between short and long term radon measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, T.; Ramirez, D.; Navarrete, M.; Cabrera, L.; Ramirez, A.; Gonzalez, P.

    2000-01-01

    In this work the radon group of the Faculty of Chemistry at the National University of Mexico presents the results obtained in the establishment of a relation between the short and long term radon measures made with passive electret detectors E-PERM type LLT and HST. The measures were carried out inside single family dwellings (open house condition) located in the southeast of Mexico City (in Xochimilco) during the four seasons of the year 1997. A correlation was established between the short term measures (five days) and those of a long term for every season as well as an annual average, with an equation that relates them. The objective and advantage of this correlation are that with a short term measure it is possible to predict the annual mean radon concentration, that represents a saving of human and economic resources. (author)

  19. Contribution of new technologies to characterization and prediction of adverse effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouquié, David; Heneweer, Marjoke; Botham, Jane; Ketelslegers, Hans; Markell, Lauren; Pfister, Thomas; Steiling, Winfried; Strauss, Volker; Hennes, Christa

    2015-02-01

    Identification of the potential hazards of chemicals has traditionally relied on studies in laboratory animals where changes in clinical pathology and histopathology compared to untreated controls defined an adverse effect. In the past decades, increased consistency in the definition of adversity with chemically-induced effects in laboratory animals, as well as in the assessment of human relevance has been reached. More recently, a paradigm shift in toxicity testing has been proposed, mainly driven by concerns over animal welfare but also thanks to the development of new methods. Currently, in vitro approaches, toxicogenomic technologies and computational tools, are available to provide mechanistic insight in toxicological Mode of Action (MOA) of the adverse effects observed in laboratory animals. The vision described as Tox21c (Toxicity Testing in the 21st century) aims at predicting in vivo toxicity using a bottom-up-approach, starting with understanding of MOA based on in vitro data to ultimately predict adverse effects in humans. At present, a practical application of the Tox21c vision is still far away. While moving towards toxicity prediction based on in vitro data, a stepwise reduction of in vivo testing is foreseen by combining in vitro with in vivo tests. Furthermore, newly developed methods will also be increasingly applied, in conjunction with established methods in order to gain trust in these new methods. This confidence is based on a critical scientific prerequisite: the establishment of a causal link between data obtained with new technologies and adverse effects manifested in repeated-dose in vivo toxicity studies. It is proposed to apply the principles described in the WHO/IPCS framework of MOA to obtain this link. Finally, an international database of known MOAs obtained in laboratory animals using data-rich chemicals will facilitate regulatory acceptance and could further help in the validation of the toxicity pathway and adverse outcome pathway

  20. Developing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based model for predicting water table depth in agricultural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianfeng; Zhu, Yan; Zhang, Xiaoping; Ye, Ming; Yang, Jinzhong

    2018-06-01

    Predicting water table depth over the long-term in agricultural areas presents great challenges because these areas have complex and heterogeneous hydrogeological characteristics, boundary conditions, and human activities; also, nonlinear interactions occur among these factors. Therefore, a new time series model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), was developed in this study as an alternative to computationally expensive physical models. The proposed model is composed of an LSTM layer with another fully connected layer on top of it, with a dropout method applied in the first LSTM layer. In this study, the proposed model was applied and evaluated in five sub-areas of Hetao Irrigation District in arid northwestern China using data of 14 years (2000-2013). The proposed model uses monthly water diversion, evaporation, precipitation, temperature, and time as input data to predict water table depth. A simple but effective standardization method was employed to pre-process data to ensure data on the same scale. 14 years of data are separated into two sets: training set (2000-2011) and validation set (2012-2013) in the experiment. As expected, the proposed model achieves higher R2 scores (0.789-0.952) in water table depth prediction, when compared with the results of traditional feed-forward neural network (FFNN), which only reaches relatively low R2 scores (0.004-0.495), proving that the proposed model can preserve and learn previous information well. Furthermore, the validity of the dropout method and the proposed model's architecture are discussed. Through experimentation, the results show that the dropout method can prevent overfitting significantly. In addition, comparisons between the R2 scores of the proposed model and Double-LSTM model (R2 scores range from 0.170 to 0.864), further prove that the proposed model's architecture is reasonable and can contribute to a strong learning ability on time series data. Thus, one can conclude that the proposed model can

  1. After laparoscopic Heller myotomy, do emergency department visits or readmissions predict poor long-term outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Sharona; Villadolid, Desiree; Al-Saadi, Sam; Boyle, Robert; Cowgill, Sarah M; Rosemurgy, Alexander

    2008-12-01

    Laparoscopic Heller myotomy is a first-line treatment for achalasia. To improve outcomes after myotomy and to determine if poor early results predict later outcomes, emergency department (ED) visits and readmissions within 60 days following laparoscopic Heller myotomy were studied. Since 1992, 352 patients have undergone laparoscopic Heller myotomy and are followed through a prospectively maintained registry. Causes of ED visits and readmissions within 60 days after myotomy were determined. Patients scored their symptoms of achalasia before myotomy and at last follow-up; scores were compared to determine if the reasons leading to ED visits and/or readmissions impacted long-term outcome after myotomy. Fourteen (4%) patients had ED visits, and 18 (5%) patients had readmissions within 60 days following myotomy. Sixty-four percent of ED visits were for dysphagia/vomiting and 36% were for abdominal/chest pain, while 37% of readmissions were for dysphagia/vomiting. Pneumonia was complicated by empyema in four patients, all without leaks; two patients expired. Despite ED visits/readmissions, achalasia symptom (e.g., dysphagia, regurgitation, choking, heartburn, and chest pain) frequency and severity scores improved after myotomy (p Heller myotomy. ED visits were generally due to complaints related to achalasia or edema after myotomy, while readmissions were generally related to complications of operative intervention or chronic ill health. Despite ED visits or readmissions early after myotomy, symptoms of achalasia are well palliated by myotomy long-term.

  2. Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion

  3. Childhood adversity as a predictor of non-adherence to statin therapy in adulthood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maarit Jaana Korhonen

    Full Text Available To investigate whether adverse experiences in childhood predict non-adherence to statin therapy in adulthood.A cohort of 1378 women and 538 men who initiated statin therapy during 2008-2010 after responding to a survey on childhood adversities, was followed for non-adherence during the first treatment year. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate predictors of non-adherence, defined as the proportion of days covered by dispensed statin tablets <80%. In fully adjusted models including age, education, marital status, current smoking, heavy alcohol use, physical inactivity, obesity, presence of depression and cardiovascular comorbidity, the number of women ranged from 1172 to 1299 and that of men from 473 to 516, because of missing data on specific adversities and covariates.Two in three respondents reported at least one of the following six adversities in the family: divorce/separation of the parents, long-term financial difficulties, severe conflicts, frequent fear, severe illness, or alcohol problem of a family member. 51% of women and 44% of men were non-adherent. In men, the number of childhood adversities predicted an increased risk of non-adherence (risk ratio [RR] per adversity 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.21], P for linear trend 0.013. Compared with those reporting no adversities, men reporting 3-6 adversities had a 1.44-fold risk of non-adherence (95% CI 1.12-1.85. Experiencing severe conflicts in the family (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03-1.57] and frequent fear of a family member (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.62] in particular, predicted an increased risk of non-adherence. In women, neither the number of adversities nor any specific type of adversity predicted non-adherence.Exposure to childhood adversity may predict non-adherence to preventive cardiovascular medication in men. Usefulness of information on childhood adversities in identification of adults at high risk of non-adherence deserves further research.

  4. Long-term efficacy of rasagiline in early Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lew, Mark F; Hauser, Robert A; Hurtig, Howard I; Ondo, William G; Wojcieszek, Joanne; Goren, Tamar; Fitzer-Attas, Cheryl J

    2010-06-01

    This study was designed to follow the long-term efficacy, safety, and tolerability of rasagiline for Parkinson's disease (PD) with data collected from all patients who had ever taken rasagiline during the 12-month TEMPO monotherapy trial (N = 398) and subsequent open-label extension. Patients were followed for up to 6.5 years with a mean of 3.5 +/- 2.1 years. After 12 months, additional PD medications were added as required. Of patients remaining in the trial at 2 years, 46% were maintained on rasagiline monotherapy. The majority of patients received a dopamine agonist prior to levodopa as the first additional dopaminergic agent. Analysis using a Kaplan-Meier method indicated that by 5.4 years only 25% of patients progressed to Hoehn & Yahr stage III. Rasagiline was well tolerated, with 11.3% of patients (45/398) withdrawing because of an adverse event. Rasagiline therapy for PD was effective, well tolerated, and safe in this long-term trial.

  5. Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoas, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

  6. Saving and Re-building Lives: Determinants of Short-term and Long-term Disaster Relief

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geethanjali SELVARETNAM

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We analyse both theoretically and empirically, the factors that influence the amount of humanitarian aid received by countries which are struck by natural disasters, particularly distinguishing between immediate disaster relief and long term humanitarian aid. The theoretical model is able to make predictions as well as explain some of the peculiarities in the empirical results. We show that both short and long term humanitarian aid increases with number of people killed, financial loss and level of corruption, while GDP per capita had no effect. More populated countries receive more humanitarian aid. Earthquake, tsunami and drought attract more aid.

  7. [Predictive value of qualitative assessment of general movements for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in infants with asphyxia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Nan; Wen, Xiao-Hong; Huang, Jin-Hua; Wang, Shui-Yun; Zhu, Yue-E

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the predictive value of the qualitative assessment of general movements (GMs) for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in full-term infants with asphyxia. A total of 114 full-term asphyxiated infants, who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit between 2009 and 2012 and took part in follow-ups after discharge were included in the study. All of them received the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth. The development quotient was determined with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 24 months of age. The results of the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth showed that among 114 infants, 20 (17.5%) had poor repertoire movements and 7 (6.1%) had cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period; 8 infants (7.0%) had the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period. The results of development quotient at 24 months of age showed that 7 infants (6.1%) had adverse developmental outcomes: 6 cases of cerebral palsy and mental retardation and 1 case of mental retardation. There was a poor consistency between poor repertoire movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=-0.019; P>0.05). There was a high consistency between cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.848; Ppredictive values of cramped-synchronized movements were shown as follows: predictive validity 98.2%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 99.1%, positive predictive value 85.7%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. There was a high consistency between the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.786; Ppredictive values were expressed as follows: predictive validity 97.4%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 98.1%, positive predictive value 75.0%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. Cramped

  8. Long-term strategic asset allocation: An out-of-sample evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diris, B.F.; Palm, F.C.; Schotman, P.C.

    We evaluate the out-of-sample performance of a long-term investor who follows an optimized dynamic trading strategy. Although the dynamic strategy is able to benefit from predictability out-of-sample, a short-term investor using a single-period market timing strategy would have realized an almost

  9. [Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plancke, L; Amariei, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

  10. Hippocampal-prefrontal connectivity predicts midfrontal oscillations and long-term memory performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, M.X.

    2011-01-01

    The hippocampus and prefrontal cortex interact to support working memory (WM) and long-term memory [1, 2 and 3]. Neurophysiologically, WM is thought to be subserved by reverberatory activity of distributed networks within the prefrontal cortex (PFC) [2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8], which become synchronized

  11. Adverse trajectories of mental health problems predict subsequent burnout and work-family conflict - a longitudinal study of employed women with children followed over 18 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsen, Wendy; Skipstein, Anni; Demerouti, Evangelia

    2016-11-08

    The long-term consequence of experiencing mental health problems may lead to several adverse outcomes. The current study aims to validate previous identified trajectories of mental health problems from 1993 to 2006 in women by examining their implications on subsequent work and family-related outcomes in 2011. Employed women (n = 439) with children were drawn from the Tracking Opportunities and Problems-Study (TOPP), a community-based longitudinal study following Norwegian families across 18 years. Previous identified latent profiles of mental health trajectories (i.e., High; Moderate; Low-rising and Low levels of mental health problems over time) measured at six time points between 1993 and 2006 were examined as predictors of burnout (e.g., exhaustion and disengagement from work) and work-family conflict in 2011 in univariate and multivariate analyses of variance adjusted for potential confounders (age, job demands, and negative emotionality). We found that having consistently High and Moderate symptoms as well as Low-Rising symptoms from 1993 to 2006 predicted higher levels of exhaustion, disengagement from work and work-family conflict in 2011. Findings remained unchanged when adjusting for several potential confounders, but when adjusting for current mental health problems only levels of exhaustion were predicted by the mental health trajectories. The study expands upon previous studies on the field by using a longer time span and by focusing on employed women with children who experience different patterns of mental health trajectories. The long-term effect of these trajectories highlight and validate the importance of early identification and prevention in women experiencing adverse patterns of mental health problems with regards to subsequent work and family-related outcomes.

  12. Long-term prediction of corrosion damage in nuclear waste systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hidekazu Asano; Feron, Damien; Gens, Robert; Padovani, Cristiano; Naoki Taniguchi

    2014-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows: The Fifth International Workshop on Long-Term Prediction of Corrosion Damage in Nuclear Waste Systems was held at the Taisetsu Crystal Hall in Asahikawa, Hokkaido, Japan from October 6 to 10, 2013, following the four previous successful workshops (Cadarache, France, 2001; Nice, France, 2004; Pennsylvania State University, USA, 2007 and Bruges, Belgium, 2010). It was organised by the Japan Society of Corrosion Engineering (JSCE) and supported by the European Federation of Corrosion (EFC): Nuclear Corrosion Working Party (WP4) as of EFC event No.360. Furthermore, it was supported by the Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Environment (NUCE) of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) and The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (JSME). Twenty nine (29) oral presentations were distributed among eleven (11) sessions covering a broad range of subjects. Another twenty eight (28) studies were presented at a poster session. A total of sixty seven (67) participants from twelve (12) countries attended the event. The presentations and the following discussion provided contextual information about the state of some national programmes and covered in detail a range of experimental and modelling studies aimed at evaluating the corrosion behaviour of a range of candidate materials and designs for the storage and disposal of radioactive wastes considered across the globe. These included modelling studies aimed at evaluating the durability of container designs for high level waste (HLW), spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and intermediate level waste (ILW), experimental studies of the corrosion behaviour of copper, carbon steel, and stainless steel in conditions relevant to storage (atmospheric) or disposal (near neutral or alkaline), as well as studies of archaeological artifacts and natural analogues aimed at supporting long-term predictions. Specific sessions were dedicated to microbial induced corrosion (MIC) and to the corrosion properties of

  13. [Adverse effects of oxcarbazepine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Shu; Gong, Zhi-Cheng

    2015-04-01

    Oxcarbazepine is a new antiepileptic drug. The results of clinical trials suggest that oxcarbazepine is well tolerated and has less drug interactions. It is being used more and more widely in clinical practice, but its adverse effects should not be ignored. The most common adverse effects of oxcarbazepine are usually related to the central nervous system and digestive system, including fatigue, drowsiness, diplopia, dizziness, nausea and vomit. The common skin adverse reaction is rash. Long-term use of oxcarbazepine may also cause hyponatremia. This article reviews the literature from China and overseas about the adverse effets of oxcarbazepine over the last 10 years in order to find information about rational clinical use of oxcarbazepine.

  14. Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy V.P. Bliss

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

  15. High levels of comorbidity and disability cancel out the dementia effect in predictions of long-term mortality after discharge in the very old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zekry, Dina; Herrmann, François R; Graf, Christophe E; Giannelli, Sandra; Michel, Jean-Pierre; Gold, Gabriel; Krause, Karl-Heinz

    2011-01-01

    The relative weight of various etiologies of dementia as predictors of long-term mortality after other risk factors have been taken into account remains unclear. We investigated the 5-year mortality risk associated with dementia in elderly people after discharge from acute care, taking into account comorbid conditions and functionality. A prospective cohort study of 444 patients (mean age: 85 years; 74% female) discharged from the acute geriatric unit of Geneva University Hospitals. On admission, each subject underwent a standardized diagnostic evaluation: demographic variables, cognitive, comorbid medical conditions and functional assessment. Patients were followed yearly by the same team. Predictors of survival at 5 years were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. The univariate model showed that being older and male, and having vascular and severe dementia, comorbidity and functional disability, were predictive of shorter survival. However, in the full multivariate model adjusted for age and sex, the effect of dementia type or severity completely disappeared when all the variables were added. In multivariate analysis, the best predictor was higher comorbidity score, followed by functional status (R(2) = 23%). The identification of comorbidity and functional impairment effects as predictive factors for long-term mortality independent of cognitive status may increase the accuracy of long-term discharge planning. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Impact of the components of Mediterranean nutrition regimen on long-term prognosis of diabetic patients with coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soheila Mosharraf

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The impact of different nutritional regimens on long-term prognosis and outcome in diabetic patients with coronary artery disease (CAD has been questioned. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to determine the effects of different nutritional components of Mediterranean regimen on long-term cardiovascular events in diabetic patients with CAD in the Iranian population. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, we recruited 233 consecutive patients with the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus and with at least 6 months of documented CAD. Nutritional assessment was obtained by a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ and the diet score was calculated on the basis of the Mediterranean diet quality index (Med-DQI. For Assessing long-term CAD prognosis, the patients were followed by telephone for one year. The study endpoint was long-term major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event (MACCE. RESULTS: Death was observed in 19 patients (8.2% during the one-year follow-up. Two patients (0.9% suffered non-fatal myocardial infarction and 14 (6.0% needed revascularization within 1 year after discharge from hospital. Overall MACCE within one year in the study population was 12.4%. There were significant differences between number of deaths and dietary scores of saturated fatty acid, cholesterol, meats, fish, and fruit and vegetables (P < 0.05. Moreover, significant differences were found between MACCE rate and dietary scores of saturated fatty acid, cholesterol, and fruit and vegetables (P < 0.05. Using multivariate logistic regression models, Mediterranean dietary regimen could effectively predict long-term death as well as MACCE adjusted for gender and age variables. CONCLUSION: Mediterranean dietary regimens, including low level of cholesterol and saturated fatty acid, can effectively improve long-term outcome including death and MACCE in diabetic patients with CAD.   Keywords: Diabetes Mellitus, Coronary

  17. Joint association of sleep problems and psychosocial working conditions with registered long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ida E. H.; Larsen, Ann D.; Thorsen, Sannie V.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Sleep problems and adverse psychosocial working conditions are associated with increased risk of long-term sickness absence. Because sleep problems affect role functioning they may also exacerbate any effects of psychosocial working conditions and vice versa. We examined whether sleep...... problems and psychosocial working conditions interact in their associations with long-term sickness absence. Methods: We linked questionnaire data from participants to two surveys of random samples of the Danish working population (N=10 752) with registries on long-term sick leave during five years after...... questionnaire response. We defined sleep problems by self-reported symptoms and/or register data on hypnotics purchases of hypnotics. Psychosocial working conditions included quantitative and emotional demands, influence, supervisor recognition and social support, leadership quality, and social support from...

  18. Investigation of long-term prestress losses in pretensioned high performance concrete girders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    Effective determination of long-term prestress losses is important in the design of prestressed concrete bridges. Over-predicting prestress losses results in an overly conservative design for service load stresses, and under-predicting prestress loss...

  19. Assessment of long-term creep strength of grade 91 steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kimura, Kazuhiro; Sawada, Kota; Kushima, Hideaki [National Inst. for Materials Science, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2010-07-01

    In 2004 and 2005 long-term creep rupture strength of ASME Grade 91 type steels of plate, pipe, forging and tube materials was evaluated in Japan by means of region splitting analysis method in consideration of 50% of 0.2% offset yield stress. According to the evaluated 100,000h creep rupture strength of 94MPa for plate, pipe and forging steels and 92MPa for tube steel at 600 C, allowable tensile stress of the steels regulated in the Interpretation for the Technical Standard for Thermal Power Plant was slightly reduced. New creep rupture data of the steels obtained in the long-term indicate further reduction of long-term creep rupture strength. Not only creep rupture strength, but also creep deformation property of the ASME Grade 91 steel was investigated and need of reevaluation of long-term creep strength of Grade 91 steel was indicated. A refinement of region splitting analysis method for creep rupture like prediction was discussed. (orig.)

  20. Plastic mulching in agriculture. Trading short-term agronomic benefits for long-term soil degradation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinmetz, Zacharias; Wollmann, Claudia; Schaefer, Miriam; Buchmann, Christian; David, Jan [Institute for Environmental Sciences, Group of Environmental and Soil Chemistry, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Tröger, Josephine [Department of Psychology, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Interdisciplinary Research Group on Environmental Issues, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Muñoz, Katherine [Institute for Environmental Sciences, Group of Environmental and Soil Chemistry, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Interdisciplinary Research Group on Environmental Issues, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Frör, Oliver [Institute for Environmental Sciences, Group of Environmental Economics, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Schaumann, Gabriele Ellen, E-mail: schaumann@uni-landau.de [Institute for Environmental Sciences, Group of Environmental and Soil Chemistry, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany)

    2016-04-15

    Plastic mulching has become a globally applied agricultural practice for its instant economic benefits such as higher yields, earlier harvests, improved fruit quality and increased water-use efficiency. However, knowledge of the sustainability of plastic mulching remains vague in terms of both an environmental and agronomic perspective. This review critically discusses the current understanding of the environmental impact of plastic mulch use by linking knowledge of agricultural benefits and research on the life cycle of plastic mulches with direct and indirect implications for long-term soil quality and ecosystem services. Adverse effects may arise from plastic additives, enhanced pesticide runoff and plastic residues likely to fragment into microplastics but remaining chemically intact and accumulating in soil where they can successively sorb agrochemicals. The quantification of microplastics in soil remains challenging due to the lack of appropriate analytical techniques. The cost and effort of recovering and recycling used mulching films may offset the aforementioned benefits in the long term. However, comparative and long-term agronomic assessments have not yet been conducted. Furthermore, plastic mulches have the potential to alter soil quality by shifting the edaphic biocoenosis (e.g. towards mycotoxigenic fungi), accelerate C/N metabolism eventually depleting soil organic matter stocks, increase soil water repellency and favour the release of greenhouse gases. A substantial process understanding of the interactions between the soil microclimate, water supply and biological activity under plastic mulches is still lacking but required to estimate potential risks for long-term soil quality. Currently, farmers mostly base their decision to apply plastic mulches rather on expected short-term benefits than on the consideration of long-term consequences. Future interdisciplinary research should therefore gain a deeper understanding of the incentives for farmers

  1. Plastic mulching in agriculture. Trading short-term agronomic benefits for long-term soil degradation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinmetz, Zacharias; Wollmann, Claudia; Schaefer, Miriam; Buchmann, Christian; David, Jan; Tröger, Josephine; Muñoz, Katherine; Frör, Oliver; Schaumann, Gabriele Ellen

    2016-01-01

    Plastic mulching has become a globally applied agricultural practice for its instant economic benefits such as higher yields, earlier harvests, improved fruit quality and increased water-use efficiency. However, knowledge of the sustainability of plastic mulching remains vague in terms of both an environmental and agronomic perspective. This review critically discusses the current understanding of the environmental impact of plastic mulch use by linking knowledge of agricultural benefits and research on the life cycle of plastic mulches with direct and indirect implications for long-term soil quality and ecosystem services. Adverse effects may arise from plastic additives, enhanced pesticide runoff and plastic residues likely to fragment into microplastics but remaining chemically intact and accumulating in soil where they can successively sorb agrochemicals. The quantification of microplastics in soil remains challenging due to the lack of appropriate analytical techniques. The cost and effort of recovering and recycling used mulching films may offset the aforementioned benefits in the long term. However, comparative and long-term agronomic assessments have not yet been conducted. Furthermore, plastic mulches have the potential to alter soil quality by shifting the edaphic biocoenosis (e.g. towards mycotoxigenic fungi), accelerate C/N metabolism eventually depleting soil organic matter stocks, increase soil water repellency and favour the release of greenhouse gases. A substantial process understanding of the interactions between the soil microclimate, water supply and biological activity under plastic mulches is still lacking but required to estimate potential risks for long-term soil quality. Currently, farmers mostly base their decision to apply plastic mulches rather on expected short-term benefits than on the consideration of long-term consequences. Future interdisciplinary research should therefore gain a deeper understanding of the incentives for farmers

  2. Long-Term Symbolic Learning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

    2007-01-01

    What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

  3. Self-concept and quality of object relations as predictors of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindfors, Olavi; Knekt, Paul; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa

    2014-01-01

    Quality of object relations and self-concept reflect clinically relevant aspects of personality functioning, but their prediction as suitability factors for psychotherapies of different lengths has not been compared. This study compared their prediction on psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- and long-term psychotherapy. Altogether 326 patients, 20-46 years of age, with mood and/or anxiety disorder, were randomized to short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) psychotherapy and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy. The Quality of Object Relations Scale (QORS) and the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (SASB) self-concept questionnaire were measured at baseline, and their prediction on outcome during the 3-year follow-up was assessed by the Symptom Check List Global Severity Index and the Anxiety Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory and by the Work Ability Index, Social Adjustment Scale work subscale and the Perceived Psychological Functioning scale. Negative self-concept strongly and self-controlling characteristics modestly predicted better 3-year outcomes in long-term therapy, after faster early gains in short-term therapy. Patients with a more positive or self-emancipating self-concept, or more mature object relations, experienced more extensive benefits after long-term psychotherapy. The importance of length vs. long-term therapy technique on the differences found is not known. Patients with mild to moderate personality pathology, indicated by poor self-concept, seem to benefit more from long-term than short-term psychotherapy, in reducing risk of depression. Long-term therapy may also be indicated for patients with relatively good psychological functioning. More research is needed on the relative importance of these characteristics in comparison with other patient-related factors. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. BRAF mutation is not predictive of long-term outcome in papillary thyroid carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henke, Lauren E; Pfeifer, John D; Ma, Changquing; Perkins, Stephanie M; DeWees, Todd; El-Mofty, Samir; Moley, Jeffrey F; Nussenbaum, Brian; Haughey, Bruce H; Baranski, Thomas J; Schwarz, Julie K; Grigsby, Perry W

    2015-01-01

    The BRAF mutation occurs commonly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Previous investigations of its utility to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) have reported conflicting results and its role remains unclear. The purpose of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence of the BRAF mutation and analyze its relationship to clinicopathologic risk factors and long-term outcomes in the largest, single-institution American cohort to date. BRAF mutational status was determined in 508 PTC patients using RFLP analysis. The relationships between BRAF mutation status, patient and tumor characteristics, RFS, and DSS were analyzed. The BRAF mutation was present in 67% of patients. On multivariate analysis, presence of the mutation predicted only for capsular invasion (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6), cervical lymph node involvement (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.7), and classic papillary histology (HR, 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–2.9). There was no significant relationship between the BRAF mutation and RFS or DSS, an observation that was consistent across univariate, multivariate, and Kaplan–Meier analyses. This is the most extensive study to date in the United States to demonstrate that BRAF mutation is of no predictive value for recurrence or survival in PTC. We found correlations of BRAF status and several clinicopathologic characteristics of high-risk disease, but limited evidence that the mutation correlates with more extensive or aggressive disease. This analysis suggests that BRAF is minimally prognostic in PTC. However, prevalence of the BRAF mutation is 70% in the general population, providing the opportunity for targeted therapy

  5. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study)123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-01-01

    Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing <5% of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and thresholds were calculated for each model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve’s capacity to classify participants likely to lose <5% of their body weight at the end of 1 y. The models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Results: Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). Conclusions: The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. The POUNDS Lost study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00072995. PMID:25733628

  6. What are driving the long-term Caspian Sea level change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015, and show that PER (P-E+R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop ( -6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of +12.38 and -6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.

  7. Germline glutathione S-transferase variants in breast cancer: Relation to diagnosis and cutaneous long-term adverse effects after two fractionation patterns of radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edvardsen, Hege; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Grenaker Alnaes, Grethe Irene B.Sc.; Bohn, Mona; Erikstein, Bjorn; Helland, Aslaug; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Fossa, Sophie Dorothea

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To explore whether certain glutathione S-transferase (GST) polymorphisms are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer or the level of radiation-induced adverse effects after two fractionation patterns of adjuvant radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: The prevalence of germline polymorphic variants in GSTM1, GSTP1, and GSTT1 was determined in 272 breast cancer patients and compared with that in a control group of 270 women from the general population with no known history of breast cancer. The genetic variants were determined using multiplex polymerase chain reaction followed by restriction enzyme fragment analysis. In 253 of the patients surveyed for radiotherapy-induced side effects after a median observation time of 13.7 years (range, 7-22.8 years), the genotypes were related to the long-term effects observed after two fractionation patterns (treatment A, 4.3 Gy in 10 fractions for 156 patients; and treatment B, 2.5 Gy in 20 fractions for 97; both administered within a 5-week period). Results: None of the GST polymorphisms conferred an increased risk of breast cancer, either alone or in combination. Compared with treatment B, treatment A was followed by an increased level of moderate to severe radiation-induced side effects for all the endpoints studied (i.e., degree of telangiectasia, subcutaneous fibrosis and atrophy, lung fibrosis, costal fractures, and pleural thickening; p <0.001 for all endpoints). A significant association was found between the level of pleural thickening and the GSTP1 Ile105Val variant. Conclusion: The results of this study have illustrated the impact of hypofractionation on the level of adverse effects and indicated that the specific alleles of GSTP1, M1, and T1 studied here may be significant in determining the level of adverse effects after radiotherapy

  8. Chest HRCT signs predict deaths in long-term follow-up among asbestos exposed workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehmas, Tapio, E-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Topeliuksenkatu 41 a A, FI-00250 Helsinki (Finland); Oksa, Panu, E-mail: panu.oksa@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Uimalankatu 1, FI-33101 Tampere (Finland)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Much lung and pleural pathology is found in chest CT studies. • HRCT signs were screened and subsequent mortality followed up. • Several signs were related to all-cause and disease specific deaths. • The HRCT classification system used was able to predict mortality. • Secondary preventive strategies should be developed for patients with such signs. - Abstract: Objectives: To study associations between chest HRCT signs and subsequent deaths in long-term follow-up. Methods: Lung and pleural signs of 633 asbestos exposed workers (age 45–86, mean 65) screened with HRCT were recorded by using the International Classification of Occupational and Environmental Respiratory Diseases (ICOERD) system, which contains detailed instructions for use and reference images. Subsequent mortality was checked from the national register. Cox regression adjusted for covariates (age, sex, BMI, asbestos exposure, pack-years) was used to explore the relations between HRCT signs and all-cause deaths, cardiovascular and benign respiratory deaths, and deaths from neoplasms – all according to the ICD-10 diagnostic system. Results: The follow-up totalled 5271.9 person-years (mean 8.3 y/person, range .04–10.3). 119 deaths were reported. Irregular/linear opacities, honeycombing, emphysema, large opacities, visceral pleural abnormalities and bronchial wall thickening were all significantly related to all-cause deaths. Most of these signs were associated also with deaths from neoplasms and benign respiratory disease. Deaths from cardiovascular disease were predicted by emphysema and visceral pleural abnormalities. Conclusions: Several HRCT signs predicted deaths. Careful attention should be paid on subjects with radiological signs predictive of deaths and new secondary preventive strategies developed. This calls for further focused studies among different populations.

  9. Predicting long-term organic carbon dynamics in organically amended soils using the CQESTR model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plaza, Cesar; Polo, Alfredo [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Ciencias Agrarias; Gollany, Hero T. [Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, OR (United States). USDA-ARS; Baldoni, Guido; Ciavatta, Claudio [Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dept. of Agroenvironmental Sciences and Technologies

    2012-04-15

    Purpose: The CQESTR model is a process-based C model recently developed to simulate soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics and uses readily available or easily measurable input parameters. The current version of CQESTR (v. 2.0) has been validated successfully with a number of datasets from agricultural sites in North America but still needs to be tested in other geographic areas and soil types under diverse organic management systems. Materials and methods: We evaluated the predictive performance of CQESTR to simulate long-term (34 years) soil organic C (SOC) changes in a SOM-depleted European soil either unamended or amended with solid manure, liquid manure, or crop residue. Results and discussion: Measured SOC levels declined over the study period in the unamended soil, remained constant in the soil amended with crop residues, and tended to increase in the soils amended with manure, especially with solid manure. Linear regression analysis of measured SOC contents and CQESTR predictions resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.626 (P < 0.001) and a slope and an intercept not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively (95% confidence level). The mean squared deviation and root mean square error were relatively small. Simulated values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the measured SOC, and predicted errors were mainly associated with data scattering. Conclusions: The CQESTR model was shown to predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the organic C dynamics in the soils examined. The CQESTR performance, however, could be improved by adding an additional parameter to differentiate between pre-decomposed organic amendments with varying degrees of stability. (orig.)

  10. Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura Murru

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

  11. Short-Term Expectation Formation Versus Long-Term Equilibrium Conditions: The Danish Housing Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Hetland

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The primary contribution of this paper is to establish that the long-swings behavior observed in the market price of Danish housing since the 1970s can be understood by studying the interplay between short-term expectation formation and long-run equilibrium conditions. We introduce an asset market model for housing based on uncertainty rather than risk, which under mild assumptions allows for other forms of forecasting behavior than rational expectations. We test the theory via an I(2 cointegrated VAR model and find that the long-run equilibrium for the housing price corresponds closely to the predictions from the theoretical framework. Additionally, we corroborate previous findings that housing markets are well characterized by short-term momentum forecasting behavior. Our conclusions have wider relevance, since housing prices play a role in the wider Danish economy, and other developed economies, through wealth effects.

  12. Antimicrobial stewardship in long term care facilities: what is effective?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolle, Lindsay E

    2014-02-12

    Intense antimicrobial use in long term care facilities promotes the emergence and persistence of antimicrobial resistant organisms and leads to adverse effects such as C. difficile colitis. Guidelines recommend development of antimicrobial stewardship programs for these facilities to promote optimal antimicrobial use. However, the effectiveness of these programs or the contribution of any specific program component is not known. For this review, publications describing evaluation of antimicrobial stewardship programs for long term care facilities were identified through a systematic literature search. Interventions included education, guidelines development, feedback to practitioners, and infectious disease consultation. The studies reviewed varied in types of facilities, interventions used, implementation, and evaluation. Comprehensive programs addressing all infections were reported to have improved antimicrobial use for at least some outcomes. Targeted programs for treatment of pneumonia were minimally effective, and only for indicators of uncertain relevance for stewardship. Programs focusing on specific aspects of treatment of urinary infection - limiting treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria or prophylaxis of urinary infection - were reported to be effective. There were no reports of cost-effectiveness, and the sustainability of most of the programs is unclear. There is a need for further evaluation to characterize effective antimicrobial stewardship for long term care facilities.

  13. Long term sequelae of pediatric craniopharyngioma - literature review and 20 years of experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal eCohen

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Craniopharyngioma are rare histologically benign brain tumors that develop in the pituitary- hypothalamic area. They may invade nearby anatomical structures causing significant rates of neurological, neurocognitive and endocrinological complications including remarkable hypothalamic damage. Information regarding long term implications of the tumors and treatment in the pediatric population is accumulating, and treatment goals appear to be changing accordingly. In this review we aim to present data regarding long term complications of craniopharyngioma in children and adolescents and our experience from a large tertiary center. Hypothalamic dysfunction was noted to be the most significant complication, adversely affecting quality of life in survivors. Obesity, fatigue and sleep disorders are the most notable manifestations of this dysfunction, and treatment is extremely difficult. Changes in management in recent years show a potential for improved long term outcomes; we found a trend towards less aggressive surgical management and increasing use of adjuvant treatment, accompanied by a decrease in complication rates.

  14. Long-term stability of orbits in storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warnock, R.L.; Ruth, R.D.

    1990-06-01

    We describe a numerical method to establish long-term bounds on nonlinear Hamiltonian motion. By bounding the change in a nearly constant action variable, uniformly in initial condition, one can predict stability for N turns by tracking many orbits for a member of turns of N 0 much less than N. In a first application to a model sextupole lattice in a region of strong nonlinearity, we predict stability of betatron motion in two degrees of freedom for 10 8 turns. 5 refs., 3 figs

  15. The predictive value of current haemoglobin levels for incident tuberculosis and/or mortality during long-term antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhoff, Andrew D.; Wood, Robin; Cobelens, Frank G.; Gupta-Wright, Ankur; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Lawn, Stephen D.

    2015-01-01

    Low haemoglobin concentrations may be predictive of incident tuberculosis (TB) and death in HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), but data are limited and inconsistent. We examined these relationships retrospectively in a long-term South African ART cohort with multiple

  16. Government Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Noriaki Kinoshita

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between government debt and long-term interest rates. A dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates debt nonneutrality is specified and solved, and numerical simulations using the model are undertaken. In addition, empirical evidence using panel data for 19 industrial countries is examined. The estimation provides some evidence supporting the theoretical predictions: the paper finds that the simulated and estimated interest rate effects of governme...

  17. Emergence of Long-Term Memory in Popularity

    OpenAIRE

    Soh, Hyungjoon; Hong, Joo Hyung; Jeong, Jaeseung; Jeong, Hawoong

    2017-01-01

    Popularity describes the dynamics of mass attention, and is a part of a broader class of population dynamics in ecology and social science literature. Studying accurate model of popularity is important for quantifying spreading of novelty, memes, and influences in human society. Although logistic equation and similar class of nonlinear differential equation formulates traditional population dynamics well, part of the deviation in long-term prediction is stated, yet fully understood. Recently,...

  18. Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

  19. Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2014-12-01

    Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

  20. Numerical simulation of gender differences in a long-term microgravity exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Poch, Antoni

    The objective of this work is to analyse and simulate gender differences when individuals are exposed to long-term microgravity. Risk probability of a health impairment which may put in jeopardy a long-term mission is also evaluated. Computer simulations are becoming a promising research line of work, as physiological models become more and more sophisticated and reliable. Technological advances in state-of-the-art hardware technology and software allow nowadays for better and more accurate simulations of complex phenomena, such as the response of the human cardiovascular system to long-term exposure to microgravity. Experimental data for long-term missions are difficult to achieve and reproduce, therefore the predictions of computer simulations are of a major importance in this field. Our approach is based on a previous model developed and implemented in our laboratory (NELME: Numerical Evaluation of Long-term Microgravity Effects). The software simulates the behaviour of the cardiovascular system and different human organs, has a modular architecture, and allows to introduce perturbations such as physical exercise or countermeasures. The implementation is based on a complex electricallike model of this control system, using inexpensive software development frameworks, and has been tested and validated with the available experimental data. Gender differences have been implemented for this specific work, as an adjustment of a number of parameters that are included in the model. Women versus men physiological differences have been therefore taken into account, based upon estimations from the physiology bibliography. A number of simulations have been carried out for long-term exposure to microgravity. Gravity varying from Earth-based to zero, and time exposure are the two main variables involved in the construction of results, including responses to patterns of physical aerobical exercise, and also thermal stress simulating an extra-vehicular activity. Results show

  1. Short-term Automated Quantification of Radiologic Changes in the Characterization of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Versus Nonspecific Interstitial Pneumonia and Prediction of Long-term Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Giacomi, Federica; Raghunath, Sushravya; Karwoski, Ronald; Bartholmai, Brian J; Moua, Teng

    2018-03-01

    Fibrotic interstitial lung diseases presenting with nonspecific and overlapping radiologic findings may be difficult to diagnose without surgical biopsy. We hypothesized that baseline quantifiable radiologic features and their short-term interval change may be predictive of underlying histologic diagnosis as well as long-term survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) presenting without honeycombing versus nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). Forty biopsy-confirmed IPF and 20 biopsy-confirmed NSIP patients with available high-resolution chest computed tomography 4 to 24 months apart were studied. CALIPER software was used for the automated characterization and quantification of radiologic findings. IPF subjects were older (66 vs. 48; P<0.0001) with lower diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide and higher volumes of baseline reticulation (193 vs. 83 mL; P<0.0001). Over the interval period, compared with NSIP, IPF patients experienced greater functional decline (forced vital capacity, -6.3% vs. -1.7%; P=0.02) and radiologic progression, as noted by greater increase in reticulation volume (24 vs. 1.74 mL; P=0.048), and decrease in normal (-220 vs. -37.7 mL; P=0.045) and total lung volumes (-198 vs. 58.1 mL; P=0.03). Older age, male gender, higher reticulation volumes at baseline, and greater interval decrease in normal lung volumes were predictive of IPF. Both baseline and short-term changes in quantitative radiologic findings were predictive of mortality. Baseline quantitative radiologic findings and assessment of short-term disease progression may help characterize underlying IPF versus NSIP in those with difficult to differentiate clinicoradiologic presentations. Our study supports the possible utility of assessing serial quantifiable high-resolution chest computed tomographic findings for disease differentiation in these 2 entities.

  2. Long-term semantic representations moderate the effect of attentional refreshing on episodic memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loaiza, Vanessa M; Duperreault, Kayla A; Rhodes, Matthew G; McCabe, David P

    2015-02-01

    The McCabe effect (McCabe, Journal of Memory and Language 58:480-494, 2008) refers to an advantage in episodic memory (EM) retrieval for memoranda studied in complex span versus simple span tasks, particularly for memoranda presented in earlier serial positions. This finding has been attributed to the necessity to refresh memoranda during complex span tasks that, in turn, promotes content-context binding in working memory (WM). Several frameworks have conceptualized WM as being embedded in long-term memory. Thus, refreshing may be less efficient when memoranda are not well-established in long-term semantic memory (SM). To investigate this, we presented words and nonwords in simple and complex span trials in order to manipulate the long-term semantic representations of the memoranda with the requirement to refresh the memoranda during WM. A recognition test was administered that required participants to make a remember-know decision for each memorandum recognized as old. The results replicated the McCabe effect, but only for words, and the beneficial effect of refreshing opportunities was exclusive to recollection. These results extend previous research by indicating that the predictive relationship between WM refreshing and long-term EM is specific to recollection and, furthermore, moderated by representations in long-term SM. This supports the predictions of WM frameworks that espouse the importance of refreshing in content-context binding, but also those that view WM as being an activated subset of and, therefore, constrained by the contents of long-term memory.

  3. Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Sidharth

    2014-01-01

    Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

  4. Decomposition of heterogeneous organic matterand its long-term stabilization in soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, Carlos A.; Harmon, Mark E.; Perakis, Steven S.

    2011-01-01

    Soil organic matter is a complex mixture of material with heterogeneous biological, physical, and chemical properties. Decomposition models represent this heterogeneity either as a set of discrete pools with different residence times or as a continuum of qualities. It is unclear though, whether these two different approaches yield comparable predictions of organic matter dynamics. Here, we compare predictions from these two different approaches and propose an intermediate approach to study organic matter decomposition based on concepts from continuous models implemented numerically. We found that the disagreement between discrete and continuous approaches can be considerable depending on the degree of nonlinearity of the model and simulation time. The two approaches can diverge substantially for predicting long-term processes in soils. Based on our alternative approach, which is a modification of the continuous quality theory, we explored the temporal patterns that emerge by treating substrate heterogeneity explicitly. The analysis suggests that the pattern of carbon mineralization over time is highly dependent on the degree and form of nonlinearity in the model, mostly expressed as differences in microbial growth and efficiency for different substrates. Moreover, short-term stabilization and destabilization mechanisms operating simultaneously result in long-term accumulation of carbon characterized by low decomposition rates, independent of the characteristics of the incoming litter. We show that representation of heterogeneity in the decomposition process can lead to substantial improvements in our understanding of carbon mineralization and its long-term stability in soils.

  5. Prediction of adverse drug reactions using decision tree modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammann, F; Gutmann, H; Vogt, N; Helma, C; Drewe, J

    2010-07-01

    Drug safety is of great importance to public health. The detrimental effects of drugs not only limit their application but also cause suffering in individual patients and evoke distrust of pharmacotherapy. For the purpose of identifying drugs that could be suspected of causing adverse reactions, we present a structure-activity relationship analysis of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in the central nervous system (CNS), liver, and kidney, and also of allergic reactions, for a broad variety of drugs (n = 507) from the Swiss drug registry. Using decision tree induction, a machine learning method, we determined the chemical, physical, and structural properties of compounds that predispose them to causing ADRs. The models had high predictive accuracies (78.9-90.2%) for allergic, renal, CNS, and hepatic ADRs. We show the feasibility of predicting complex end-organ effects using simple models that involve no expensive computations and that can be used (i) in the selection of the compound during the drug discovery stage, (ii) to understand how drugs interact with the target organ systems, and (iii) for generating alerts in postmarketing drug surveillance and pharmacovigilance.

  6. Long-term use of adalimumab in the treatment of rheumatic diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charalampos Papagoras

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Charalampos Papagoras, Paraskevi V Voulgari, Alexandros A DrososRheumatology Clinic, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, GreeceAbstract: Adalimumab, a fully humanized monoclonal antibody against tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFα, has been evaluated in various randomized placebo-controlled trials in rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriatic arthritis and juvenile idiopathic arthritis. In the short time frame of these trials adalimumab has been shown to be effective in reducing disease activity, slowing radiographic disease progression and improving patients’ quality of life, while at the same time demonstrating an acceptable safety profile. Furthermore, release of adalimumab on the market, prospective observational studies, as well as open-label extensions of the original double-blind trials have provided experience and data about the long-term efficacy and safety of the drug. Initial effectiveness, in terms of reducing disease activity, is sustained, while in most cases patients treated with adalimumab experienced a slower radiographic progression and consequently less disability and improved health-related quality-of-life outcomes. Moreover, long-standing treatment of thousands of patients with adalimumab outside the controlled context of clinical trials was not related to new safety signals, with the most common adverse events being respiratory infections. The most common serious adverse events seem to be tuberculosis reactivation, while a putative association with malignant lymphoma development is not yet proven. Besides, both of these adverse reactions pertain to the whole TNFα blocker group. In conclusion, adalimumab is a safe and effective option for the treatment of patients with rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriatic arthritis and juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Keywords: adalimumab, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis

  7. An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

  8. Consumer Decision-Making Abilities and Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarry, Brian E; Tempkin-Greener, Helena; Grabowski, David C; Chapman, Benjamin P; Li, Yue

    2018-04-16

    To determine the impact of consumer decision-making abilities on making a long-term care insurance (LTCi) purchasing decision that is consistent with normative economic predictions regarding policy ownership. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, multivariate analyses are implemented to estimate the effect of decision-making ability factors on owning LTCi. Stratified multivariate analyses are used to examine the effect of decision-making abilities on the likelihood of adhering to economic predictions of LTCi ownership. In the full sample, better cognitive capacity was found to significantly increase the odds of ownership. When the sample was stratified based on expected LTCi ownership status, cognitive capacity was positively associated with ownership among those predicted to own and negatively associated with ownership among those predicted not to own who could likely afford a policy. Consumer decision-making abilities, specifically cognitive capacity, are an important determinant of LTCi decision outcomes. Deficits in this ability may prevent individuals from successfully preparing for future long-term care expenses. Policy makers should consider changes that reduce the cognitive burden of this choice, including the standardization of the LTCi market, the provision of consumer decision aids, and alternatives to voluntary and private insuring mechanisms.

  9. Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

    2012-06-01

    Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Long-term studies of the natural history of asthma in childhood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, Hans; Bønnelykke, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    Segmentation of children with asthma and other wheezy disorders remains the main research challenge today, as it was when described 2 centuries ago. Early childhood wheezy disorders follow different temporal trajectories, probably representing different underlying mechanisms (endophenotypes...... secondary prevention through the use of inhaled corticosteroids can effectively halt the long-term disease progression in childhood. In conclusion, the natural history of asthma and the associated airway changes is still poorly understood, and we have not managed to translate findings from long-term studies......). Prospective identification of endophenotypes allowing accurate prediction of the clinical course is currently not possible. The variability of the clinical course remains an enigma and difficult to predict. Three of 4 school-aged children with asthma have outgrown disease by midadulthood. The risk...

  11. Comparing frailty measures in their ability to predict adverse outcome among older residents of assisted living

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hogan David B

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Few studies have directly compared the competing approaches to identifying frailty in more vulnerable older populations. We examined the ability of two versions of a frailty index (43 vs. 83 items, the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS frailty criteria, and the CHESS scale to accurately predict the occurrence of three outcomes among Assisted Living (AL residents followed over one year. Methods The three frailty measures and the CHESS scale were derived from assessment items completed among 1,066 AL residents (aged 65+ participating in the Alberta Continuing Care Epidemiological Studies (ACCES. Adjusted risks of one-year mortality, hospitalization and long-term care placement were estimated for those categorized as frail or pre-frail compared with non-frail (or at high/intermediate vs. low risk on CHESS. The area under the ROC curve (AUC was calculated for select models to assess the predictive accuracy of the different frailty measures and CHESS scale in relation to the three outcomes examined. Results Frail subjects defined by the three approaches and those at high risk for decline on CHESS showed a statistically significant increased risk for death and long-term care placement compared with those categorized as either not frail or at low risk for decline. The risk estimates for hospitalization associated with the frailty measures and CHESS were generally weaker with one of the frailty indices (43 items showing no significant association. For death and long-term care placement, the addition of frailty (however derived or CHESS significantly improved on the AUC obtained with a model including only age, sex and co-morbidity, though the magnitude of improvement was sometimes small. The different frailty/risk models did not differ significantly from each other in predicting mortality or hospitalization; however, one of the frailty indices (83 items showed significantly better performance over the other measures in predicting long-term

  12. Response to Intervention as a Predictor of Long-Term Reading Outcomes in Children with Dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Kleij, Sanne W; Segers, Eliane; Groen, Margriet A; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2017-08-01

    The goal of this study was to investigate how growth during a phonics-based intervention, as well as reading levels at baseline testing, predicted long-term reading outcomes of children with dyslexia. Eighty Dutch children with dyslexia who had completed a 50-week phonics-based intervention in grade 4 were tested in grade 5 on both word and pseudoword (following regular Dutch orthographic patterns) reading efficiency and compared to 93 typical readers. In grade 5 the children with dyslexia were still significantly slower in word and pseudoword reading than their typically developing peers. Results showed that long-term pseudoword reading in the group with dyslexia was predicted by pseudoword reading at pretest and growth in pseudoword reading during the intervention, which was itself predicted by pseudoword reading at pretest. This was not the case for word reading. We found that long-term word reading was directly predicted from pretest word reading, and indirectly via pretest pseudoword reading, via growth in pseudoword and word reading. It can be concluded that pseudoword reading is not only a good indicator of severity of reading difficulties in children with dyslexia, it is also an indicator of who will profit from intervention in the long-term. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Long term stability of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

  14. Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skuterud, L.; Aahman, B.; Solatie, D.; Gaare, E.

    2009-06-01

    The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for maintaining

  15. Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skuterud, L. (Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Norwegian Reindeer Husbandry Administration (Norway)); AAhman, B. (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences (Sweden)); Solatie, D. (STUK-Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (Finland)); Gaare, E. (Norwegian Institute for Nature Researc (Norway))

    2009-06-15

    The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for

  16. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  17. Long-term outcome in rheumatoid arthritis: a simple algorithm of baseline parameters can predict radiographic damage, disability, and disease course at 12-year followup

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drossaers-Bakker, K. W.; Zwinderman, A. H.; Vliet Vlieland, T. P. M.; van Zeben, D.; Vos, K.; Breedveld, F. C.; Hazes, J. M. W.

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To predict the long-term outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with respect to radiographic damage, disability, and disease course using baseline variables, and to construct decision trees identifying patients on an individual level at the extremes of the outcome spectrum of these 3

  18. Medical assessment of adverse health outcomes in long-term survivors of childhood cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geenen, Maud M.; Cardous-Ubbink, Mathilde C.; Kremer, Leontien C. M.; van den Bos, Cor; van der Pal, Helena J. H.; Heinen, Richard C.; Jaspers, Monique W. M.; Koning, Caro C. E.; Oldenburger, Foppe; Langeveld, Nelia E.; Hart, Augustinus A. M.; Bakker, Piet J. M.; Caron, Huib N.; van Leeuwen, Flora E.

    2007-01-01

    CONTEXT: Improved survival of children with cancer has been accompanied by multiple treatment-related complications. However, most studies in survivors of childhood cancer focused on only 1 late effect. OBJECTIVE: To assess the total burden of adverse health outcomes (clinical or subclinical

  19. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-10-22

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted image of a famous person were larger in a group of participants who had slept (experiment 1) or merely napped for 90 min (experiment 2) during the interval between adaptation and test compared with controls who stayed awake. Participants' individual rapid eye movement sleep duration predicted the size of post-sleep behavioural adaptation effects. Our data suggest that sleep prevented decay of adaptation in a way that is qualitatively different from the effects of reduced visual interference known as 'storage'. In the light of the well-established link between sleep and memory consolidation, our findings link the perceptual mechanisms of sensory adaptation--which are usually not considered to play a relevant role in mnemonic processes--with learning and memory, and at the same time reveal a new function of sleep in cognition.

  20. Influence of Transfusions on Perioperative and Long-Term Outcome in Patients Following Hepatic Resection for Colorectal Metastases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooby, David A.; Stockman, Jennifer; Ben-Porat, Leah; Gonen, Mithat; Jarnagin, William R.; Dematteo, Ronald P.; Tuorto, Scott; Wuest, David; Blumgart, Leslie H.; Fong, Yuman

    2003-01-01

    Objective To determine if transfusion affected perioperative and long-term outcome in patients undergoing liver resection for metastatic colorectal cancer. Summary Background Data Blood transfusion produces host immunosuppression and has been postulated to result in adverse outcome for patients undergoing surgical resection of malignancies. Methods Blood transfusion records and clinical outcomes for 1,351 patients undergoing liver resection at a tertiary cancer referral center were analyzed. Results Blood transfusion was associated with adverse outcome after liver resection. The greatest effect was in the perioperative course, where transfusion was an independent predictor of operative mortality, complications, major complications, and length of hospital stay. This effect was dose-related. Patients receiving one or two units or more than two units had an operative mortality of 2.5% and 11.1%, respectively, compared to 1.2% for patients not requiring transfusions. Transfusion was also associated with adverse long-term survival by univariate analysis, but this factor was not significant on multivariate analysis. Even patients receiving only one or two units had a more adverse outcome. Conclusions Perioperative blood transfusion is a risk factor for poor outcome after liver resection. Blood conservation methods should be used to avoid transfusion, especially in patents currently requiring limited amounts of transfused blood products. PMID:12796583

  1. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    2004-02-01

    Micro-structure of rock plays an essential role for their long-term behavior. For understanding long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope (CLSM) under uniaxial compression (before loading and at each loading stage), 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, and 3) a study of strong discontinuity analysis included in the homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. First, CLSM was used to acquire clearly focused three-dimensional images of granite specimens, and observed the change of microscale structure including the mineral configuration under applying uniaxial compression stress. Then though microcracks have ever thought to be initiated and propagated on intergranular boundaries, we understand through the CLSM observation that new microcracks are generated from the ends of pre-existing cracks which are distributed in quartz and biotite. Second, we showed the results of stress-relaxation test of granite specimens observed by an optical microscope under water-saturated triaxial compression condition. Since microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock, we managed the experiments with careful attention of 1) keeping constant edge-displacement and constant strain in the whole specimen accurately, and 2) measuring the relaxed stress exactly. Next, in order to simulate the experimental results which indicate that initiation and propagation of microcracks control the stress-relaxation phenomenon, we introduce a homogenization analysis procedure together with the strong discontinuity analysis which has recently established the mechanical implication and mathematical foundation. The numerical results show that we can

  2. Short-term and long-term thermal prediction of a walking beam furnace using neuro-fuzzy techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banadaki Hamed Dehghan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The walking beam furnace (WBF is one of the most prominent process plants often met in an alloy steel production factory and characterized by high non-linearity, strong coupling, time delay, large time-constant and time variation in its parameter set and structure. From another viewpoint, the WBF is a distributed-parameter process in which the distribution of temperature is not uniform. Hence, this process plant has complicated non-linear dynamic equations that have not worked out yet. In this paper, we propose one-step non-linear predictive model for a real WBF using non-linear black-box sub-system identification based on locally linear neuro-fuzzy (LLNF model. Furthermore, a multi-step predictive model with a precise long prediction horizon (i.e., ninety seconds ahead, developed with application of the sequential one-step predictive models, is also presented for the first time. The locally linear model tree (LOLIMOT which is a progressive tree-based algorithm trains these models. Comparing the performance of the one-step LLNF predictive models with their associated models obtained through least squares error (LSE solution proves that all operating zones of the WBF are of non-linear sub-systems. The recorded data from Iran Alloy Steel factory is utilized for identification and evaluation of the proposed neuro-fuzzy predictive models of the WBF process.

  3. Successful Treatment of Sudden Hepatitis Induced by Long-Term Nivolumab Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keisuke Imafuku

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Immune checkpoint inhibitors have drastically changed in the treatment of many kinds of malignancies, especially malignant melanoma. The focus of the recent experiments has not only been on their efficacy but also immune-related adverse events (irAEs. We report a case of fulminant hepatitis due to nivolumab. In this case, the patient had undergone long-term nivolumab therapy. He did not complain of any symptoms but his liver enzyme levels were extremely elevated (grade 4. We promptly decided to start oral corticosteroids in the patient. His liver function rapidly improved. The dose of corticosteroids was gradually reduced. Our case demonstrates that sudden onset fulminant hepatitis can occur despite the safe use of long-term nivolumab therapy. The irAE can improve rapidly with proper corticosteroid treatment. This report will be useful for the physicians who always use immune checkpoint inhibitors.

  4. Long term creep strength of silver alloyed copper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auerkari, P.; Sandlin, S.

    1988-12-01

    The long term creep strength of silver alloyed copper has been estimated using literature creep data for materials with less than 0.1% Ag. The available data was very limited, and it was necessary to test the differences between various data sets and extrapolation methods. Assuming constant stress level and constant or changing temperature, the creep behaviour has been assessed using mainly Larson-Miller and theta-projection approaches. The calculations indicate that the different extrapolation methods and data sources can yield strongly different life estimates. With the available incomplete data the theta projection method may give the conservative life predictions, whereas the Larson-Miller approach grossly overestimates creep life. It is recommended that supplementary data is acquired to better assess the long term creep properties of canisters in repository conditions

  5. Long-term behaviour of concrete: development of operational model to predict the evolution of its containment performance. Application to cemented waste packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peycelon, H.; Le Bescop, P.; Richet, C.; Adenot, F.

    2001-01-01

    In order to describe the main phenomena during different stages of cement waste packages life-time and to predict the long-term behaviour (containment performance) of concrete, coupled experiments and modelling studies are achieved. With respect to logical methodology, improvement of these studies is accomplished. Degradation of concrete in low mineralized, carbonated and sulfated water lead to an evolution of chemical characteristics (dissolution/precipitation of solid phases) and of transport properties which must be included or coupled in retention/transport modelling of radio nuclides to predict containment performance. (author)

  6. Data-driven prediction of adverse drug reactions induced by drug-drug interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruifeng; AbdulHameed, Mohamed Diwan M; Kumar, Kamal; Yu, Xueping; Wallqvist, Anders; Reifman, Jaques

    2017-06-08

    The expanded use of multiple drugs has increased the occurrence of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) induced by drug-drug interactions (DDIs). However, such reactions are typically not observed in clinical drug-development studies because most of them focus on single-drug therapies. ADR reporting systems collect information on adverse health effects caused by both single drugs and DDIs. A major challenge is to unambiguously identify the effects caused by DDIs and to attribute them to specific drug interactions. A computational method that provides prospective predictions of potential DDI-induced ADRs will help to identify and mitigate these adverse health effects. We hypothesize that drug-protein interactions can be used as independent variables in predicting ADRs. We constructed drug pair-protein interaction profiles for ~800 drugs using drug-protein interaction information in the public domain. We then constructed statistical models to score drug pairs for their potential to induce ADRs based on drug pair-protein interaction profiles. We used extensive clinical database information to construct categorical prediction models for drug pairs that are likely to induce ADRs via synergistic DDIs and showed that model performance deteriorated only slightly, with a moderate amount of false positives and false negatives in the training samples, as evaluated by our cross-validation analysis. The cross validation calculations showed an average prediction accuracy of 89% across 1,096 ADR models that captured the deleterious effects of synergistic DDIs. Because the models rely on drug-protein interactions, we made predictions for pairwise combinations of 764 drugs that are currently on the market and for which drug-protein interaction information is available. These predictions are publicly accessible at http://avoid-db.bhsai.org . We used the predictive models to analyze broader aspects of DDI-induced ADRs, showing that ~10% of all combinations have the potential to induce ADRs

  7. Factors Influencing Job Satisfaction Among Long-Term Care Staff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kelly; Resnick, Barbara; Swanberg, Jennifer

    2017-11-01

    We assessed the intrapersonal, interpersonal, and organizational factors that predicted job satisfaction among long-term care employees. Baseline data were used to describe characteristics that influence job satisfaction. Using a forced linear regression model, while controlling for age and job title, we assessed if higher physical activity levels, fewer symptoms of depression, stress, and/or anxiety (ie, decreased mood), less back pain, stronger social support, and reports of low work demands were associated with higher job satisfaction. Mood (β = -0.412, P = 0.003) explained 17% of the variance in job satisfaction. This information can be used to guide facility wide programs and interventions aimed at increasing job satisfaction among all long-term care staff.

  8. Teen motherhood and long-term health consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Payal H; Sen, Bisakha

    2012-07-01

    The objective of this article is to examine the association of teen motherhood and long-term physical and mental health outcomes. The physical and mental health components (PCS and MCS) of the SF-12 Healthy Survey in the NLSY79 health module were used to assess long-term health outcomes of women who experienced teenage motherhood. Various familial, demographic, and environmental characteristics were indentified and controlled for that may have predicted teen motherhood and long-term health outcomes. The two comparison groups for teen mothers were women who experienced teen-pregnancy only and women who were engaged in unprotected sexual activity as a teenage but did not experience pregnancy. Multivariate ordinary least squares regression was used for analysis. The average PCS and MCS for teen mothers was 49.91 and 50.89, respectively. Teen mothers exhibited poorer physical health later in life compared to all women as well as the comparison groups. When controlling for age, teen mothers had significantly lower PCS and MCS scores compared to all other women. Furthermore, when controlling for familial, demographic, and environmental characteristics, teen mothers exhibited significantly lower PCS and MCS scores. When comparing teen mothers to the two comparison groups, PCS was not statistically different although MCS was significantly lower in the teen-pregnancy group. Teen motherhood does lead to poorer physical health outcomes later in life. On the other hand, poorer mental health outcomes in later life may be attributed to the unmeasured factors leading to a teen pregnancy and not teen motherhood itself. Additional research needs to be conducted on the long-term consequences of teen motherhood.

  9. The use of natural and archaeological analogues for understanding the long-term behavior of nuclear glasses; L'utilisation des analogues naturels et archeologiques pour la comprehension de l'evolution a long terme des verres nucleaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Libourel, G.; Verney-Carron, A.; Morlok, A. [CNRS UPR2300, centre de recherches petrographiques et geochimiques (CRPG), Nancy-universite, 15, rue Notre-Dame-des-Pauvres, BP 20, 54501 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Libourel, G. [INPL, Ecole nationale superieure de geologie (ENSG), Nancy-universite, rue du Doyen-Marcel-Roubault, BP 20, 54501 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Gin, St. [CEA Marcoule, DEN/SECM/LCLT, 30 (France); Sterpenich, J. [G2R, CNRS-UMR 7566, Nancy-universite, BP 70239, 54506 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy cedex (France); Michelin, A.; Neff, D.; Dillmann, Ph. [Laboratoire archeomateriaux et prevision de l' alteration LAPA/SIS2 M, CEA and CNRS, Bat 637, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif/Yvette cedex (France); Michelin, A.; Dillmann, Ph. [LMC IRAMAT UMR5060 CNRS (France)

    2011-02-15

    The knowledge of the long-term behavior of nuclear waste in anticipation of ultimate disposal in a deep geological formation is of prime importance in a waste management strategy. If phenomenological models have been developed to predict the long-term behavior of these materials, validating these models remains a challenge, when considering the time scale of radioactive decay of radionuclides of environmental concern, typically 10{sup 4}-10{sup 5} yrs. Here we show how natural or archaeological analogues provide critical constraints not only on the phenomenology of glass alteration and the mechanisms involved, but also on the ability of experimental short-term data to predict long-term alteration in complex environments. (authors)

  10. Long-term prognostic value of transesophageal atrial pacing stress echocardiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Płońska, Edyta; Kasprzak, Jarosław D; Kornacewicz-Jach, Zdzisława

    2005-07-01

    The aim of our study was to evaluate the long-term prognostic value of transesophageal atrial pacing stress echocardiography (TAPSE) for the prediction of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction) and mortality at 10-year follow-up. TAPSE was applied as a diagnostic modality in 93 consecutive patients (mean age 45 +/- 8 years) who were diagnosed for the cause of chest pain. Long-term follow-up data were obtained from 87 (94%) patients with a mean duration of follow-up of 92 +/- 4 months. Stress echocardiography was performed using TAPSE with a mean pacing rate of 142 +/- 18/min. Predefined cardiac events occurred during the follow-up period in 45 (52%) patients, including 24 (28%) with hard end points: 10 (12%) with nonfatal myocardial infarction and 17 who died (events overlap). Positive result of TAPSE was found in 47 (54%) patients and among those with positive TAPSE result, 16 died (94% of total mortality) and 21 had a hard event (death or infarction-88% of total prevalence). Survival free from hard events was noted in 37 (92%) patients with negative TAPSE and only in 26 (55%) of those with positive TAPSE ( P = .001). Independent predictive factors for mortality were TAPSE positivity (relative risk with 95% confidence interval [RR/CI] = 39.6 [36.3-42.9], P = .0006) and diabetes (RR/CI = 10.2 [8.6-11.8], P = .0026). Independent predictive factors for myocardial infarction were diabetes (RR/CI = 8.1 [6.3-9.9], P = .0186) and significant coronary stenosis in angiography (RR/CI = 9.0 [6.8-11.2], P = .0479). Independent predictive factors for death or nonfatal myocardial infarction were TAPSE positivity (RR/CI = 12.3 [11.1-13.3], P = .0001) and diabetes (RR/CI = 7.0 [5.8-8.2], P = .0018). Positive TAPSE result carries long-term prognostic information regarding mortality and risk of myocardial infarction that can be used to identify patients requiring more aggressive treatment. Negative TAPSE allows highly accurate definition of low-risk population with

  11. The importance of short-term off-target effects in estimating the long-term renal and cardiovascular protection of angiotensin receptor blockers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smink, P A; Miao, Y; Eijkemans, M J C

    2014-01-01

    Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have multiple effects that may contribute to their efficacy on renal/cardiovascular outcomes. We developed and validated a risk score that incorporated short-term changes in multiple risk markers to predict the ARB effect on renal/cardiovascular outcomes.......98), in addition to being markedly more accurate than predicted RRRs based on changes in single markers. The score was validated in an independent ARB trial. Predictions of long-term renal/cardiovascular ARB effects are more accurate when considering short-term changes in multiple risk markers, challenging the use...

  12. Preterm Versus Term Children: Analysis of Sedation/Anesthesia Adverse Events and Longitudinal Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havidich, Jeana E; Beach, Michael; Dierdorf, Stephen F; Onega, Tracy; Suresh, Gautham; Cravero, Joseph P

    2016-03-01

    Preterm and former preterm children frequently require sedation/anesthesia for diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. Our objective was to determine the age at which children who are born risk for sedation/anesthesia adverse events. Our secondary objective was to describe the nature and incidence of adverse events. This is a prospective observational study of children receiving sedation/anesthesia for diagnostic and/or therapeutic procedures outside of the operating room by the Pediatric Sedation Research Consortium. A total of 57,227 patients 0 to 22 years of age were eligible for this study. All adverse events and descriptive terms were predefined. Logistic regression and locally weighted scatterplot regression were used for analysis. Preterm and former preterm children had higher adverse event rates (14.7% vs 8.5%) compared with children born at term. Our analysis revealed a biphasic pattern for the development of adverse sedation/anesthesia events. Airway and respiratory adverse events were most commonly reported. MRI scans were the most commonly performed procedures in both categories of patients. Patients born preterm are nearly twice as likely to develop sedation/anesthesia adverse events, and this risk continues up to 23 years of age. We recommend obtaining birth history during the formulation of an anesthetic/sedation plan, with heightened awareness that preterm and former preterm children may be at increased risk. Further prospective studies focusing on the etiology and prevention of adverse events in former preterm patients are warranted. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  13. Short- and long-term perinatal outcome in twin pregnancies affected by weight discordance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel, Cathrine; Oldenburg, Anna; Worda, Katharina

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The objective was to investigate the association between chorionicity-specific intertwin birthweight discordance and adverse outcomes including long-term follow up at 6, 18, and 48-60 months after term via Ages and Stages Questionnaire. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this secondary analysis...... outcomes. Ages and Stages Questionnair scores were compared using the method of generalized estimating equation to account for the correlation within twins. RESULTS: The 75th and 90th percentiles for birthweight discordance were 14.8 and 21.4% for monochorionic and 16.0 and 23.8% for dichorionic twins...

  14. Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun-Young Kim

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in diameter (PM10 concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly PM10 data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM10 concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R2 statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average PM10 concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 μg/m3 (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 μg/m3, respectively. Cross-validated R2 values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had R2 values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R2 (0.36 than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM10 source characteristics.

  15. Automatic detection of adverse events to predict drug label changes using text and data mining techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurulingappa, Harsha; Toldo, Luca; Rajput, Abdul Mateen; Kors, Jan A; Taweel, Adel; Tayrouz, Yorki

    2013-11-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the impact of automatically detected adverse event signals from text and open-source data on the prediction of drug label changes. Open-source adverse effect data were collected from FAERS, Yellow Cards and SIDER databases. A shallow linguistic relation extraction system (JSRE) was applied for extraction of adverse effects from MEDLINE case reports. Statistical approach was applied on the extracted datasets for signal detection and subsequent prediction of label changes issued for 29 drugs by the UK Regulatory Authority in 2009. 76% of drug label changes were automatically predicted. Out of these, 6% of drug label changes were detected only by text mining. JSRE enabled precise identification of four adverse drug events from MEDLINE that were undetectable otherwise. Changes in drug labels can be predicted automatically using data and text mining techniques. Text mining technology is mature and well-placed to support the pharmacovigilance tasks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Random fractional ultrapulsed CO2 resurfacing of photodamaged facial skin: long-term evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tretti Clementoni, Matteo; Galimberti, Michela; Tourlaki, Athanasia; Catenacci, Maximilian; Lavagno, Rosalia; Bencini, Pier Luca

    2013-02-01

    Although numerous papers have recently been published on ablative fractional resurfacing, there is a lack of information in literature on very long-term results. The aim of this retrospective study is to evaluate the efficacy, adverse side effects, and long-term results of a random fractional ultrapulsed CO2 laser on a large population with photodamaged facial skin. Three hundred twelve patients with facial photodamaged skin were enrolled and underwent a single full-face treatment. Six aspects of photodamaged skin were recorded using a 5 point scale at 3, 6, and 24 months after the treatment. The results were compared with a non-parametric statistical test, the Wilcoxon's exact test. Three hundred one patients completed the study. All analyzed features showed a significant statistical improvement 3 months after the procedure. Three months later all features, except for pigmentations, once again showed a significant statistical improvement. Results after 24 months were similar to those assessed 18 months before. No long-term or other serious complications were observed. From the significant number of patients analyzed, long-term results demonstrate not only how fractional ultrapulsed CO2 resurfacing can achieve good results on photodamaged facial skin but also how these results can be considered stable 2 years after the procedure.

  17. Evaluation on biosafety in long-term administration, teratogenicity and local toxicity of developed product

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung-Ho; Kim, Jong-Chun; Kim, Se-Ra; Lee, Hae-Jun; Lee, Jin-Hee [Chonnam Nat. Univ., Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-01-15

    We performed this study to determine biosafety of developed product in long-term administration and teratogenicity and local toxicity (skin and eye) of developed product (HemoHIM and HemoTonic). It is suggested that long-term administration with the developed products may not exert considerable side effects. It is concluded that the administration of HemoHIM or HemoTonic does not inflict any adverse effect on fetuses of pregnant mice. HemoHIM and HemoTonic could be considered as a no irritating materials to the skin and eye of the test animals. These results indicated that HemoHIM and HemoTonic might be a useful functional food, especially since it is a relatively nontoxic natural product.

  18. Evaluation on biosafety in long-term administration, teratogenicity and local toxicity of developed product

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-Ho; Kim, Jong-Chun; Kim, Se-Ra; Lee, Hae-Jun; Lee, Jin-Hee

    2006-01-01

    We performed this study to determine biosafety of developed product in long-term administration and teratogenicity and local toxicity (skin and eye) of developed product (HemoHIM and HemoTonic). It is suggested that long-term administration with the developed products may not exert considerable side effects. It is concluded that the administration of HemoHIM or HemoTonic does not inflict any adverse effect on fetuses of pregnant mice. HemoHIM and HemoTonic could be considered as a no irritating materials to the skin and eye of the test animals. These results indicated that HemoHIM and HemoTonic might be a useful functional food, especially since it is a relatively nontoxic natural product

  19. Long Term Sequelae of Pediatric Craniopharyngioma – Literature Review and 20 Years of Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Michal; Guger, Sharon; Hamilton, Jill

    2011-01-01

    Craniopharyngioma are rare histologically benign brain tumors that develop in the pituitary–hypothalamic area. They may invade nearby anatomical structures causing significant rates of neurological, neurocognitive, and endocrinological complications including remarkable hypothalamic damage. Information regarding long term implications of the tumors and treatment in the pediatric population is accumulating, and treatment goals appear to be changing accordingly. In this review we aim to present data regarding long term complications of craniopharyngioma in children and adolescents and our experience from a large tertiary center. Hypothalamic dysfunction was noted to be the most significant complication, adversely affecting quality of life in survivors. Obesity, fatigue, and sleep disorders are the most notable manifestations of this dysfunction, and treatment is extremely difficult. Changes in management in recent years show a potential for improved long term outcomes; we found a trend toward less aggressive surgical management and increasing use of adjuvant treatment, accompanied by a decrease in complication rates. PMID:22645511

  20. Prediction of Long-Term Benefits of Inhaled Steroids by Phenotypic Markers in Moderate-to-Severe COPD: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiska B Snoeck-Stroband

    Full Text Available The decline in lung function can be reduced by long-term inhaled corticosteroid (ICS treatment in subsets of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. We aimed to identify which clinical, physiological and non-invasive inflammatory characteristics predict the benefits of ICS on lung function decline in COPD.Analysis was performed in 50 steroid-naive compliant patients with moderate to severe COPD (postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1, 30-80% of predicted, compatible with GOLD stages II-III, age 45-75 years, >10 packyears smoking and without asthma. Patients were treated with fluticasone propionate (500 μg bid or placebo for 2.5 years. Postbronchodilator FEV1, dyspnea and health status were measured every 3 months; lung volumes, airway hyperresponsiveness (PC20, and induced sputum at 0, 6 and 30 months. A linear mixed effect model was used for analysis of this hypothesis generating study.Significant predictors of attenuated FEV1-decline by fluticasone treatment compared to placebo were: fewer packyears smoking, preserved diffusion capacity, limited hyperinflation and lower inflammatory cell counts in induced sputum (p<0.04.Long-term benefits of ICS on lung function decline in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD are most pronounced in patients with fewer packyears, and less severe emphysema and inflammation. These data generate novel hypotheses on phenotype-driven therapy in COPD.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00158847.

  1. User manual of Soil and Cesium Transport (SACT), a program to predict long-term Cs distribution using USLE for soil erosion, transportation and deposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Hiroshi; Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Kitamura, Akihiro

    2016-12-01

    This manual provides useful and necessary information to users of 'SACT' (Soil and Cesium Transport), which Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has developed to predict a long-term distribution of Cs deposited on the land surface of Fukushima due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident on March 11, 2011. SACT calculates soil movement (erosion, transportation and deposition) and resulting Cs migration, and predicts its future distribution, with the assumption that Cs is adhered to soil initially. SACT uses USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) for potential soil loss and simple hydraulic equations for soil transportation and deposition in which soil is divided into course-grained sand and fine-grained silt/clay. The amount of Cs moved with soil is predicted by the amount of above-mentioned soil movement and concentration ratio of Cs for each grain-size. SACT utilizes the 'ArcGIS' software and the GIS (Geographical Information System). SACT is characterized by its simplicity which enables fast calculation for wide area for long-term duration, using existing simple equations including USLE. Data for used parameters are widely available, and site-specific calculations are possible by using data obtained from the targeted area. (author)

  2. Environmental radioactivity. Global transport, distribution and its long-term variation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Katsumi

    2015-01-01

    Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (F1NPP) accident, which occurred as a result of huge earthquake and resulting tsunami, had a severe impact on world communities as did Japanese, because of cause of serious radioactivity contamination in the environment. Long-term effects of radioactivity contamination from F1NPP are concerned. To assess the long-term environmental effects of the F1NPP accident, it is important to review the history of global radioactivity contamination, which started from Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear explosions in Aug. 1945. Radionuclides released in the environment as a result of atmospheric nuclear explosions, nuclear reactor accident and others are migrated between atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and lithosphere according to natural processes. We describe long-term environmental behaviors of anthropogenic radionuclides derived from the atmospheric nuclear explosions and others, which is useful to predict the behaviors and fate of the F1NPP-derived radionuclides. (author)

  3. A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blower Sally

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

  4. High-sensitive CRP as a predictive marker of long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberdi-Saugstrup, Mikel; Zak, Marek; Nielsen, Susan

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate whether C-reactive protein (CRP), including variation within the normal range, is predictive of long-term disease outcome in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA). Consecutive patients with newly diagnosed JIA were included prospectively from defined geographic areas of the Nordic...... countries from 1997 to 2000. Inclusion criteria were availability of a baseline serum sample within 12 months after disease onset and 8-year clinical assessment data. Systemic onset JIA was not included. CRP was measured by high-sensitive ELISA (detection limit of 0.2 mg/l). One hundred and thirty...... participants with a median follow-up time of 97 months (range 95–100) were included. At follow-up, 38% of the patients were in remission off medication. Absence of remission was associated with elevated level of CRP at baseline (odds ratio (OR) 1.33, confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.63, p = 0.007). By applying...

  5. Long-term urethral catheterisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

    This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

  6. Aspects of posttraumatic stress disorder in long-term testicular cancer survivors: cross-sectional and longitudinal findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Alv A; Østby-Deglum, Marie; Oldenburg, Jan; Bremnes, Roy; Dahl, Olav; Klepp, Olbjørn; Wist, Erik; Fosså, Sophie D

    2016-10-01

    The purpose of this research is to study the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and variables associated with PTSD in Norwegian long-term testicular cancer survivors (TCSs) both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. At a mean of 11 years after diagnosis, 1418 TCSs responded to a mailed questionnaire, and at a mean of 19 years after diagnosis, 1046 of them responded again to a modified questionnaire. Posttraumatic symptoms related to testicular cancer were self-rated with the Impact of Event Scale (IES) at the 11-year study only. An IES total score ≥35 defined Full PTSD, and a score 26-34 identified Partial PTSD, and the combination of Full and Partial PTSD defined Probable PTSD. At the 11-year study, 4.5 % had Full PTSD, 6.4 % had Partial PTSD, and 10.9 % Probable had PTSD. At both studies, socio-demographic variables, somatic health, anxiety/depression, chronic fatigue, and neurotoxic adverse effects were significantly associated with Probable PTSD in bivariate analyses. Probable anxiety disorder, poor self-rated health, and neurotoxicity remained significant with Probable PTSD in multivariate analyses at the 11-year study. In bivariate analyses, probable PTSD at that time significantly predicted socio-demographic variables, somatic health, anxiety/depression, chronic fatigue, and neurotoxicity among participants of the 19-year study, but only probable anxiety disorder remained significant in multivariable analysis. In spite of excellent prognosis, 10.9 % of long-term testicular cancer survivors had Probable PTSD at a mean of 11 years after diagnosis. Probable PTSD was significantly associated with a broad range of problems both at that time and was predictive of considerable problems at a mean of 19 year postdiagnosis. Among long-term testicular cancer survivors, 10.9 % have Probable PTSD with many associated problems, and therefore health personnel should explore stress symptoms at follow-up since efficient treatments are available.

  7. The relationship between elevated red cell distribution width and long-term outcomes among patients with atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Huaibin; Yang, Yanmin; Zhu, Jun; Huang, Bi; Wang, Juan; Wu, Shuang; Shao, Xinghui; Zhang, Han

    2015-08-01

    Red cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between elevated RDW and long-term clinical outcomes among patients with AF. We prospectively observed 300 consecutive patients with AF (50.3% males, mean age 62.6 ± 12.9 years) between February 2009 and October 2011. Baseline RDW levels and clinical data were collected. The primary clinical outcomes of interest included all-cause mortality and the incidence of major adverse events (MAEs). During a median follow-up period of 3.2 years, 60 deaths and 92 MAEs were recorded. From the lowest to the highest RDW quartile, an increased risk of mortality (2.76, 3.98, 8.40 and 13.77 per 100 person-years, respectively) and an incidence of MAEs (6.46, 8.18, 13.79 and 20.27 per 100 person-years, respectively) were noted. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, RDW was independently associated with both all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR): 1.024; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.012-1.036, P < 0.001) and MAEs (HR: 1.012; 95% CI: 1.002-1.023, P = 0.023). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that RDW predicted both mortality and MAEs with areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) of 0.682 (P < 0.001) and 0.617 (P = 0.001); the best cutoff points were 13.85% and 13.55%, respectively. Elevated RDW is an independent predictor of long-term adverse clinical outcomes, including all-cause mortality and MAEs, among patients with AF. Copyright © 2015 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Cognitive effects of pregabalin in the treatment of long-term benzodiazepine-use and dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oulis, Panagiotis; Kalogerakou, Stamatina; Anyfandi, Eleni; Konstantakopoulos, George; Papakosta, Vassiliki-Maria; Masdrakis, Vasilios; Tsaltas, Eleftheria

    2014-05-01

    Long-term benzodiazepine (BDZ) use and dependence affect cognitive functioning adversely and partly irreversibly. Emerging evidence suggests that pregabalin (PGB) might be a safe and efficacious treatment of long-term BDZ use. The aim of the present study was to investigate the changes in several core cognitive functions after successful treatment of long-term BDZ use and dependence with PGB. Fourteen patients with long-term BDZ use (mean duration >15 years) underwent neuropsychological assessment with the mini-mental state examination and four tests from the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB) battery before the initiation of PGB treatment and at a two months follow-up after the cessation of BDZs. Patients' CANTAB percentile score distributions were compared with normative CANTAB data. Patients improved on cognitive measures of global cognitive functioning, time orientation, psychomotor speed, and visuospatial memory and learning with strong effect sizes. By contrast, they failed to improve on measures of attentional flexibility. Despite their significant improvement, patients' scores on most tests remained still at the lower percentiles of CANTAB normative scores. Although preliminary, our findings suggest that successful treatment of long-term BDZ use with PGB is associated with a substantial, though only partial, recovery of BDZ-compromised neuropsychological functioning, at least at a 2-month follow-up. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Corrosion of Spent Nuclear Fuel: The Long-Term Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, Rodney C.

    2003-01-01

    This research program is a broadly based effort to understand the long-term behavior of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and its alteration products in a geologic repository. We have established by experiments and field studies that natural uraninite, UO2+x, and its alteration products are excellent ''natural analogues'' for the study of the corrosion of UO2 in SNF. This on-going research program has addressed the following major issues: (1) What are the long-term corrosion products of natural UO2+x, uraninite, under oxidizing and reducing conditions? (2) What is the paragenesis or the reaction path for the phases that form during alteration? (3) What is the radionuclide content in the corrosion products as compared with the original UO2+x? Do the trace element contents substantiate models developed to predict radionuclide incorporation into the secondary phases? Are the corrosion products accurately predicted from geochemical codes (e.g., EQ3/6 or Geochemist's Workbench) that are used in performance assessments? Can these codes be tested by studies of natural analogue sites (e.g., Oklo, Cigar Lake or Pena Blanca)

  10. The Impact of Policy Incentives on Long-Term Care Insurance and Medicaid Costs: Does Underwriting Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornell, Portia Y; Grabowski, David C

    2018-05-16

    To test whether underwriting modifies the effect of state-based incentives on individuals' purchase of long-term care insurance. Health and Retirement Study (HRS), 1996-2012. We estimated difference-in-difference regression models with an interaction of state policy indicators with individuals' probabilities of being approved for long-term care insurance. We imputed probabilities of underwriting approval for respondents in the HRS using a model developed with underwriting decisions from two U.S. insurance firms. We measured the elasticity response to long-term care insurance price using changes in simulated after-tax price as an instrumental variable for premium price. Tax incentives and Partnership programs increased insurance purchase by 3.62 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, among those with the lowest risk (highest approval probability). Neither had any statistically significant effects among the highest risk individuals. We show that ignoring the effects of underwriting may lead to biased estimates of the potential state budget savings of long-term care insurance tax incentives. If the private market is to play a role in financing long-term care, policies need to address the underlying adverse selection problems. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  11. Radiosurgery of craniopharyngiomas. Results of long-term follow-up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kida, Yoshihisa; Hasegawa, Toshinori; Yoshimoto, Masayuki; Koike, Johzi; Kobayashi, Tatsuya

    2007-01-01

    Long-term follow-up results of craniopharyngiomas after radiosurgery are reported. Among 125 cases of craniopharyngioma, long-term follow-up more than 6 months is obtained in 108 cases. Majority of the cases have had surgical excision before radiosurgery. The tumors, 19 mm in mean diameter were treated with the mean maximum dose of 22.1 Gy and with the marginal dose of 11.6 Gy. The final radiological outcomes during 63 months of mean follow-up showed 9 complete responses (CRs), 61 partial responses (PRs), 1 minor response (MR), 19 no changes (NCs) and 18 PGs, indicating the response rate of 65% and the control rate of 83% respectively. Neurological and endocrinological signs were improved in 18%, unchanged in 53% and worsened in 15% of cases, meanwhile 8% of the patients were dead. Small and solid tumors were the best indication for radiosurgery due to excellent tumor control as well as no adverse effects. They may have a good chance for complete remission. In conclusion a sufficient tumor resection with microsurgery is required and subsequent radiosurgery is most adequate for treating craniopharyngiomas. (author)

  12. Long-term management of chronic spontaneous urticaria with omalizumab.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto Gouveia, M; Gameiro, A; Pinho, A; Gonçalo, M

    2017-10-01

    Clinical trials have shown the efficacy of omalizumabs efficacy in refractory chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) and chronic inducible urticaria (CIndU), but real-life management strategies are lacking. To assess the long-term efficacy and safety of omalizumab, and to identify predictive factors and optimum dosage regimens. This was a prospective study of 13 patients (11 women, 2 men) with severe CSU [weekly urticaria activity score (UAS7) > 28] resistant to anti-H1 antihistamines. Patients were started on omalizumab 150 mg subcutaneously every 4 weeks. Dose and interval between administrations were adjusted according to clinical response (189 administrations; treatment duration range 2-38 months). Mean UAS7 was 36.3 ± 5.4. Of the 13 patients, all had experienced angio-oedema, while in addition, 7 had delayed pressure urticaria (DPU) and 1 had solar urticaria (SU). After omalizumab treatment, 4 (30.8%) of the 13 patients had complete response (CR), and the remaining 8 (61.5%) had partial response. CR was achieved with a dose of 150 mg every 4 (n = 2 patients) or 5 (n = 2) weeks. One of these patients remained disease-free after stopping treatment. Partial responses were achieved with 150 mg every 4 weeks (n = 4) and with 300 mg (n = 4) at intervals of 5 weeks (n = 1), 4 weeks (n = 2) or 3 weeks (n = 1). Only one patient (7.7%) did not show significant improvement, despite a dose of 300 mg every 4 weeks. There were no significant differences in epidemiological, clinical and laboratory data between the different response groups. Only two adverse events were observed: one was mild headache and the other was severe angio-oedema and aggravation of urticaria within 6 h of omalizumab administration. Omalizumab dose and interval between administrations could be individualized for long-term management of CSU. © 2017 British Association of Dermatologists.

  13. Limited effect of thoracoscopic splanchnicectomy in the treatment of severe chronic pancreatitis pain: a prospective long-term analysis of 75 cases.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buscher, H.C.J.L.; Schipper, E.; Wilder-Smith, O.H.G.; Jansen, J.B.M.J.; Goor, H. van

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Bilateral thoracoscopic splanchnicectomy is a minimally invasive method of treating pain in patients with chronic pancreatitis. It offers good, short-term pain relief, but long-term success is difficult to predict. We analyze long-term results and identify factors predicting success of

  14. Predicting long-term sickness absence and early retirement pension from self-reported work ability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sell, L.; Bultmann, U.; Rugulies, R.; Villadsen, E.; Faber, A.; Sogaard, K.

    2009-01-01

    Objective The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market. Methods Data on work ability were retrieved from a representative cohort study of Danish wage earners and linked with a

  15. The roles of self-efficacy and motivation in the prediction of short- and long-term adherence to exercise among patients with coronary heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovinec D'Angelo, Monika E; Pelletier, Luc G; Reid, Robert D; Huta, Veronika

    2014-11-01

    Poor adherence to regular exercise is a documented challenge among people with heart disease. Identifying key determinants of exercise adherence and distinguishing between the processes driving short- and long-term adherence to regular exercise is a valuable endeavor. The purpose of the present study was to test a model of exercise behavior change, which incorporates motivational orientations and self-efficacy for exercise behavior, in the prediction of short- and long-term exercise adherence. Male and female patients (N = 801) hospitalized for coronary heart disease were recruited from 3 tertiary care cardiac centers and followed for a period of 1 year after hospital discharge. A prospective, longitudinal design was used to examine the roles of motivation and self-efficacy (measured at recruitment and at 2 and 6 months after discharge) in the prediction of exercise behavior at 6 and 12 months. Baseline measures of exercise and clinical and demographic covariates were included in the analyses. Structural equation modeling showed that both autonomous motivation and self-efficacy were important determinants of short-term (6-month) exercise behavior regulation, but that only autonomous motivation remained a significant predictor of long-term (12-month) exercise behavior. Self-efficacy partially mediated the relationship between motivation for exercise and 6-month exercise behavior. This research confirmed the roles of autonomous motivation and self-efficacy in the health behavior change process and emphasized the key function of autonomous motivation in exercise maintenance. Theoretical and cardiac rehabilitation program applications of this research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Could infarct location predict the long-term functional outcome in childhood arterial ischemic stroke?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio López-Espejo

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To explore the influence of infarct location on long-term functional outcome following a first-ever arterial ischemic stroke (AIS in non-neonate children. Method: The MRIs of 39 children with AIS (median age 5.38 years; 36% girls; mean follow-up time 5.87 years were prospectively evaluated. Infarct location was classified as the absence or presence of subcortical involvement. Functional outcome was measured using the modified Rankin scale (mRS for children after the follow-up assessment. We utilized multivariate logistic regression models to estimate the odds ratios (ORs for the outcome while adjusting for age, sex, infarct size and middle cerebral artery territory involvement (significance < 0.05. Results: Both infarcts ≥ 4% of total brain volume (OR 9.92; CI 1.76 – 55.9; p 0.009 and the presence of subcortical involvement (OR 8.36; CI 1.76 – 53.6; p 0.025 independently increased the risk of marked functional impairment (mRS 3 to 5. Conclusion: Infarct extension and location can help predict the extent of disability after childhood AIS.

  17. Long-term antibiotics for prevention of recurrent urinary tract infection in older adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Haroon; Davies, Freya; Francis, Nick; Farewell, Daniel; Butler, Christoper; Paranjothy, Shantini

    2017-05-29

    To address clinical uncertainties about the effectiveness and safety of long-term antibiotic therapy for preventing recurrent urinary tract infections (UTIs) in older adults. Systematic review andmeta-analysis of randomised trials. We searched Medline, Embase, The Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature( CINAHL), and the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials from inception to August 2016. Eligible studies compared long-term antibiotic therapy with non-antibiotic therapy or placebo in men or women aged over 65, or in postmenopausal women, with recurrent UTIs. We did not identify any studies that included older men. Three randomised controlled trials compared long-term antibiotics with vaginal oestrogens (n=150), oral lactobacilli (n=238) and D-mannose powder (n=94) in postmenopausal women. Long-term antibiotics reduced the risk of UTI recurrence by 24% (three trials, n=482; pooled risk ratio (RR) 0.76; 95% CI 0.61 to 0.95, number needed to treat=8.5). There was no statistically significant increase in risk of adverse events (mild adverse events: pooled RR 1.52; 95% CI 0.76 to 3.03; serious adverse events: pooled RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.31 to 2.66). One trial showed 90% of urinary and faecal Escherichia coli isolates were resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole after 1 month of prophylaxis. Findings from three small trials with relatively short follow-up periods suggest long-term antibiotic therapy reduces the risk of recurrence in postmenopausal women with recurrent UTI. We did not identify any evidence to inform several clinically important scenarios including, benefits and harms in older men or frail care home residents, optimal duration of prophylaxis, recurrence rates once prophylaxis stops and effects on urinary antibiotic resistance. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  18. Review article: Environmental heatstroke and long-term clinical neurological outcomes: A literature review of case reports and case series 2000-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawton, Emily M; Pearce, Helen; Gabb, Genevieve M

    2018-05-31

    Global temperatures are rising; extreme environmental heat can result in adverse health effects including heatstroke. Acute effects of heat are well recognised, but there is less understanding of potential long-term adverse outcomes. Our aim was to review recent medical literature for clinical cases of environmental heatstroke with a focus on neurological outcome. Structured search strategies were designed to retrieve publications of heatstroke case reports using Ovid Medline and Embase (2000-2016). One thousand and forty-nine abstracts were identified, and after application of exclusion criteria 71 articles deemed relevant. Ninety cases were identified from 71 articles. 100% presented with acute neurological symptoms; 87.8% presented with non-neurological symptoms. 44.4% patients recovered fully, 23.3% died, 23.3% suffered convalescent or long-term neurological sequelae, and in 8.9% no long-term follow up was available. 57.1% of the patients who died or had a neurological deficit had no documented co-morbidity. Patterns of neurological deficits included 66.7% patients with motor dysfunction, 9.5% cognitive impairment, 19% both motor and cognitive impairment and 4.7% other. In total 71.4% of the impaired patients had long-term cerebellar dysfunction. Adverse long-term neurological outcomes were common in surviving patients presenting with environmental heatstroke. Permanent neurological deficits were present in 34.4% of survivors where outcome was known; many were young, healthy individuals. Cerebellar injury was common suggesting cerebellar structures are vulnerable to heat. These findings highlight that people of all ages and pre-morbid states are at risk of severe heat-related illness. In the face of climate change, effective interventions for heat-related illness, including both treatment and prevention are necessary. © 2018 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

  19. An idealised study for the long term evolution of crescentic bars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, W. L.; Dodd, N.; Tiessen, M. C. H.; Calvete, D.

    2018-01-01

    An idealised study that identifies the mechanisms in the long term evolution of crescentic bar systems in nature is presented. Growth to finite amplitude (i.e., equilibration, sometimes referred to as saturation) and higher harmonic interaction are hypothesised to be the leading nonlinear effects in long-term evolution of these systems. These nonlinear effects are added to a linear stability model and used to predict crescentic bar development along a beach in Duck, North Carolina (USA) over a 2-month period. The equilibration prolongs the development of bed patterns, thus allowing the long term evolution. Higher harmonic interaction enables the amplitude to be transferred from longer to shorter lengthscales, which leads to the dominance of shorter lengthscales in latter post-storm stages, as observed at Duck. The comparison with observations indicates the importance of higher harmonic interaction in the development of nearshore crescentic bar systems in nature. Additionally, it is concluded that these nonlinear effects should be included in models simulating the development of different bed patterns, and that this points a way forward for long-term morphodynamical modelling in general.

  20. Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka

    2015-08-01

    Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.

  1. Predictive modeling of structured electronic health records for adverse drug event detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jing; Henriksson, Aron; Asker, Lars; Boström, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    The digitization of healthcare data, resulting from the increasingly widespread adoption of electronic health records, has greatly facilitated its analysis by computational methods and thereby enabled large-scale secondary use thereof. This can be exploited to support public health activities such as pharmacovigilance, wherein the safety of drugs is monitored to inform regulatory decisions about sustained use. To that end, electronic health records have emerged as a potentially valuable data source, providing access to longitudinal observations of patient treatment and drug use. A nascent line of research concerns predictive modeling of healthcare data for the automatic detection of adverse drug events, which presents its own set of challenges: it is not yet clear how to represent the heterogeneous data types in a manner conducive to learning high-performing machine learning models. Datasets from an electronic health record database are used for learning predictive models with the purpose of detecting adverse drug events. The use and representation of two data types, as well as their combination, are studied: clinical codes, describing prescribed drugs and assigned diagnoses, and measurements. Feature selection is conducted on the various types of data to reduce dimensionality and sparsity, while allowing for an in-depth feature analysis of the usefulness of each data type and representation. Within each data type, combining multiple representations yields better predictive performance compared to using any single representation. The use of clinical codes for adverse drug event detection significantly outperforms the use of measurements; however, there is no significant difference over datasets between using only clinical codes and their combination with measurements. For certain adverse drug events, the combination does, however, outperform using only clinical codes. Feature selection leads to increased predictive performance for both data types, in isolation and

  2. Dystrophic Cutaneous Calcification and Metaplastic Bone Formation due to Long Term Bisphosphonate Use in Breast Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Murat Tatlı

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Bisphosphonates are widely used in the treatment of breast cancer with bone metastases. We report a case of a female with breast cancer presented with a rash around a previous mastectomy site and a discharge lesion on her right chest wall in August 2010. Biopsy of the lesion showed dystrophic calcification and metaplastic bone formation. The patient’s history revealed a long term use of zoledronic acid for the treatment of breast cancer with bone metastasis. We stopped the treatment since we believed that the cutaneous dystrophic calcification could be associated with her long term bisphosphonate therapy. Adverse cutaneous events with bisphosphonates are very rare, and dystrophic calcification has not been reported previously. The dystrophic calcification and metaplastic bone formation in this patient are thought to be due to long term bisphosphonate usage.

  3. Predicting short and long-term exercise intentions and behaviour in patients with coronary artery disease: A test of protection motivation theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Heather; Reida, Robert; D'Angeloa, Monika Slovinec; Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Morrina, Louise; Beatona, Louise; Papadakisa, Sophia; Pipe, Andrew

    2009-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of protection motivation theory (PMT) in the prediction of exercise intentions and behaviour in the year following hospitalisation for coronary artery disease (CAD). Patients with documented CAD (n = 787), recruited at hospital discharge, completed questionnaires measuring PMT's threat (i.e. perceived severity and vulnerability) and coping (i.e. self-efficacy, response efficacy) appraisal constructs at baseline, 2 and 6 months, and exercise behaviour at baseline, 6 and 12 months post-hospitalisation. Structural equation modelling showed that the PMT model of exercise at 6 months had a good fit with the empirical data. Self-efficacy, response efficacy, and perceived severity predicted exercise intentions, which, in turn predicted exercise behaviour. Overall, the PMT variables accounted for a moderate amount of variance in exercise intentions (23%) and behaviour (20%). In contrast, the PMT model was not reliable for predicting exercise behaviour at 12 months post-hospitalisation. The data provided support for PMT applied to short-term, but not long-term, exercise behaviour among patients with CAD. Health education should concentrate on providing positive coping messages to enhance patients' confidence regarding exercise and their belief that exercise provides health benefits, as well as realistic information about disease severity.

  4. Does early change predict long-term (6 months) improvements in subjects who receive manual therapy for low back pain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Chad; Petersen, Shannon; Donaldson, Megan; Wilhelm, Mark; Learman, Ken

    2017-09-01

    Early change is commonly assessed for manual therapy interventions and has been used to determine treatment appropriateness. However, current studies have only explored the relationship of between or within-session changes and short-/medium-term outcomes. The goal of this study was to determine whether pain changes after two weeks of pragmatic manual therapy could predict those participants with chronic low back pain who demonstrate continued improvements at 6-month follow-up. This study was a retrospective observational design. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed using a 33% and a 50% pain change to predict improvement. Those who experienced a ≥33% pain reduction by 2 weeks had 6.98 (95% CI = 1.29, 37.53) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the GRoC and 4.74 (95% CI = 1.31, 17.17) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the ODI (at 6 months). Subjects who reported a ≥50% pain reduction at 2 weeks had 5.98 (95% CI = 1.56, 22.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the GRoC and 3.99 (95% CI = 1.23, 12.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the ODI (at 6 months). Future studies may investigate whether a change in plan of care is beneficial for patients who are not showing early improvement predictive of a good long-term outcome.

  5. Unemployment and Long-Term Unemployment of Immigrants in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerija Botrić

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Migration issues in Croatia have been mostly discussed in relation to the recent increase in emigration, in particular related to the emigration of young and highly educated persons. However, active migration policy should consider immigration dynamics as well. In the framework of long-term prospects of the Croatian labour market, and taking into consideration the advanced effects of the demographic aging process, the issue of active immigration policy is expected to become more important in the future. The main goal of the paper is to analyse the existing position of immigrants on the Croatian labour market. Important characteristics of the Croatian labour market in recent years have been a high unemployment rate and high share of long-term unemployment. The effects of these adverse conditions are manifold, not only at the level of the economy (in terms of under-utilisation of available resources, but also at the level of affected individuals. Regarding individuals, the consequences of long-term unemployment frequently incorporate increased distance from the labour market due to the (perceived loss of skills. The aim of the paper is to investigate individual characteristics that predict either unemployment or long-term unemployment of the immigrant population in Croatia. The empirical analysis is based on the Labour Force Survey conducted by the Croatian Central Bureau of Statistics. Due to the data source used, the immigrant population is not defined on the basis of their nationality or citizenship. It entails all persons who were born outside Croatia and currently have permanent residence in the country. The second condition is directly related to the nature of the sample used for the Survey, where the sample frame relies on permanent residency. This implies that any short-term circular migrations (due to, for example, increased labour market during the tourist season are probably not covered by the data. To the extent that this is important

  6. Positive childhood experiences predict less psychopathology and stress in pregnant women with childhood adversity: A pilot study of the benevolent childhood experiences (BCEs) scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, Angela J; Rivera, Luisa M; Bernstein, Rosemary E; Harris, William W; Lieberman, Alicia F

    2018-04-01

    This pilot study examined the psychometric properties of the Benevolent Childhood Experiences (BCEs) scale, a new instrument designed to assess positive early life experiences in adults with histories of childhood maltreatment and other adversities. A counterpart to the Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) questionnaire, the BCEs was developed to be multiculturally-sensitive and applicable regardless of socioeconomic position, urban-rural background, or immigration status. Higher levels of BCEs were hypothesized to predict lower levels of psychopathology and stress beyond the effects of ACES in a sample of ethnically diverse, low-income pregnant women. BCEs were also expected to show adequate internal validity across racial/ethnic groups and test-retest stability from the prenatal to the postnatal period. Participants were 101 pregnant women (M=29.10years, SD=6.56, range=18-44; 37% Latina, 22% African-American, 20% White, 21% biracial/multiracial/other; 37% foreign-born, 26% Spanish-speaking) who completed the BCEs and ACEs scales; assessments of prenatal depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, perceived stress, and exposure to stressful life events (SLEs) during pregnancy; and demographic information. Higher levels of BCEs predicted less PTSD symptoms and SLEs, above and beyond ACEs. The BCEs showed excellent test-retest reliability, and mean levels were comparable across racial/ethnic and Spanish-English groups of women. Person-oriented analyses also showed that higher levels of BCEs offset the effects of ACEs on prenatal stress and psychopathology. The BCEs scale indexes promising promotive factors associated with lower trauma-related symptomatology and stress exposure during pregnancy and illuminates how favorable childhood experiences may counteract long-term effects of childhood adversity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Impact of microbial activity on the radioactive waste disposal: long term prediction of biocorrosion processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libert, Marie; Schütz, Marta Kerber; Esnault, Loïc; Féron, Damien; Bildstein, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    This study emphasizes different experimental approaches and provides perspectives to apprehend biocorrosion phenomena in the specific disposal environment by investigating microbial activity with regard to the modification of corrosion rate, which in turn can have an impact on the safety of radioactive waste geological disposal. It is found that iron-reducing bacteria are able to use corrosion products such as iron oxides and "dihydrogen" as new energy sources, especially in the disposal environment which contains low amounts of organic matter. Moreover, in the case of sulphate-reducing bacteria, the results show that mixed aerobic and anaerobic conditions are the most hazardous for stainless steel materials, a situation which is likely to occur in the early stage of a geological disposal. Finally, an integrated methodological approach is applied to validate the understanding of the complex processes and to design experiments aiming at the acquisition of kinetic data used in long term predictive modelling of biocorrosion processes. © 2013.

  8. Acute deviations from long-term trait depressive symptoms predict systemic inflammatory activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohleder, Nicolas; Miller, Gregory E

    2008-07-01

    Depressive symptoms increase morbidity and mortality from coronary heart disease and systemic inflammation has been proposed as the underlying mechanism. While higher levels of inflammatory mediators have been found in dysphoric individuals, it is not known whether long-term or short-term mood changes are responsible for this phenomenon. A sample of 65 young women provided weekly web-based self-ratings of depressive mood over a period of 20 weeks using the CES-D, and systemic inflammation was assessed by measuring plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) before and after the observation period. CES-D ratings were used to develop state and trait indicators of depressed mood and evaluate their relationship with inflammatory mediators. Hierarchical linear regressions controlling for baseline inflammation, age, and BMI revealed that trait levels of depressive symptoms were not associated with IL-6 (beta=0.09; n.s.) and CRP (beta=0.01; n.s.) concentrations after the observation period. In contrast, state levels of depressive symptoms were associated with changes in IL-6, but not CRP, particularly when they were indexed as the disparity between a person's trait level of symptoms and her CES-D score just prior to IL-6 assessment (beta=0.35; p=0.03). These results lead us to conclude that in young women, state, rather than trait depressed mood stimulates peripheral inflammation as measured by IL-6. This pattern suggests that in this age group, fast-reacting inflammatory mediators such as IL-6 probably respond to short-term changes, for example, in stress hormones or stress hormone sensitivity, rather than long-term dysregulations of allostatic mechanisms.

  9. Coral reef growth in an era of rapidly rising sea level: predictions and suggestions for long-term research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buddemeier, R W; Smith, S V

    1988-01-01

    Coral reef growth is intimately linked to sea level. It has been postulated that over the next century, sea level will rise at a probable average rate of 15 mm/year, in response to fossil fuel emissions, heating, and melting of the Antarctic ice cap. This predicted rate of sea level rise is five times the present modal rate of vertical accretion on coral reef flats and 50% greater than the maximum vertical accretion rates apparently attained by coral reefs. We use these predictions and observations to offer the following hypothesis for reef growth over the next century. The vertical accretion rates of protected reef flats will accelerate from the present modal rate up to the maximum rate, in response to the more rapidly rising sea level. This more rapid vertical accretion rate will be insufficient to keep up with sea level rise, if present predictions prove to be correct. Less protected reef flats will slow their rate of growth as they become inundated and subjected to erosion by progressively larger waves. This projected sea level rise and postulated reef response will provide an opportunity for long- term studies of the response of coral reef systems to a predictable and measurable forcing function.

  10. Practical management of adverse events related to apomorphine therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhidayasiri, Roongroj; Garcia Ruiz, Pedro J; Henriksen, Tove

    2016-01-01

    The potential for adverse events is often cited as a barrier to the use of subcutaneous apomorphine therapy (intermittent injections and continuous infusion) in the management of Parkinson's disease. However, with proactive management most adverse effects are manageable if reported and tackled...... titration, initiation and long-term treatment, and discuss practical management strategies....

  11. Superiority of Serum Cystatin C Over Creatinine in Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis at Discharge From ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravn, Bo; Prowle, John R; Mårtensson, Johan; Martling, Claes-Roland; Bell, Max

    2017-09-01

    , cystatin C consistently associated with long-term mortality, identifying patients at both high and low risk, and better correlated with follow-up renal function. Conversely, lower creatinine relative to cystatin C appeared to confer adverse prognosis, confounding creatinine interpretation in isolation. Cystatin C warrants further investigation as a more meaningful measure of renal function after critical illness.

  12. Osteoprotegerin predicts long-term outcome in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Sune Folke; Bjerre, Mette; Mogelvang, Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    : 1.03-1.59; p = 0.03), repeat myocardial infarction (HR: 1.30; CI: 1.00-1.68; p = 0.05) and admission with heart failure (HR: 1.50; CI: 1.18-1.90; p = 0.001). Conclusion: This study shows that OPG independently predicts long-term outcome in STEMI patients treated with pPCI. Eventually, this knowledge...... in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). Methods: We included 716 consecutive STEMI patients admitted to a single high-volume invasive heart center from September 2006 to December 2008. Endpoints were all...

  13. Long-term effects of prenatal progesterone exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel, C.; Larsen, H.; Holmskov, Anni

    2016-01-01

    children from 498 twin pregnancies, were followed-up. PREDICT was a placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial examining the effect of progesterone for prevention of preterm delivery in unselected twin pregnancies. Medical histories of the children were reviewed and neurophysiological development...... does not seem to have long-term harmful effects during childhood, but future studies should focus on cardiac disease in the child. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.......OBJECTIVES: To perform a neurophysiological follow-up at 48 or 60 months of age in children exposed prenatally to progesterone compared with a placebo and evaluate their medical histories up to 8 years of age. METHODS: In this study, Danish participants of the PREDICT study, including 989 surviving...

  14. Short and long term outcome of bilateral pallidal stimulation in chorea-acanthocytosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Miquel

    Full Text Available Chorea-acanthocytosis (ChAc is a neuroacanthocytosis syndrome presenting with severe movement disorders poorly responsive to drug therapy. Case reports suggest that bilateral deep brain stimulation (DBS of the ventro-postero-lateral internal globus pallidus (GPi may benefit these patients. To explore this issue, the present multicentre (n=12 retrospective study collected the short and long term outcome of 15 patients who underwent DBS.Data were collected in a standardized way 2-6 months preoperatively, 1-5 months (early and 6 months or more (late after surgery at the last follow-up visit (mean follow-up: 29.5 months.Motor severity, assessed by the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale-Motor Score, UHDRS-MS, was significantly reduced at both early and late post-surgery time points (mean improvement 54.3% and 44.1%, respectively. Functional capacity (UHDRS-Functional Capacity Score was also significantly improved at both post-surgery time points (mean 75.5% and 73.3%, respectively, whereas incapacity (UHDRS-Independence Score improvement reached significance at early post-surgery only (mean 37.3%. Long term significant improvement of motor symptom severity (≥ 20 % from baseline was observed in 61.5 % of the patients. Chorea and dystonia improved, whereas effects on dysarthria and swallowing were variable. Parkinsonism did not improve. Linear regression analysis showed that preoperative motor severity predicted motor improvement at both post-surgery time points. The most serious adverse event was device infection and cerebral abscess, and one patient died suddenly of unclear cause, 4 years after surgery.This study shows that bilateral DBS of the GPi effectively reduces the severity of drug-resistant hyperkinetic movement disorders such as present in ChAc.

  15. Long-term results of golimumab therapy for rheumatoid arthritis. Therapy compliance issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. V. Chichasova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (RA is to suppress inflammation, to prevent or delay destructive changes in the joints, and to normalize functions during the longest monitoring of the course of RA. The data of randomized controlled trials and national registries are of great importance to a clinician. The paper reviews the literature data characterizing the long-term results of RA therapy with the tumor necrosis factor-α inhibitor golimumab (GLM and patient compliance with the therapy. Treatment with GLM at the registered subcutaneous dose of 50 mg once every 4 weeks gives rise to an effect in the vast majority of patients regardless of the type of previous ineffective therapy, the dose of concurrently administered methotrexate, the number of previous ineffective disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, and the use and nonuse of glucocorticoids. GLM is characterized by a long-term (as long as 5 years effect with suppressed progression of destruction, functional recovery, and satisfactory tolerability with no additional risk for adverse events as the therapy is continued.

  16. Long term mortality study of chromate pigment workers who suffered lead poisoning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, J.M.

    1984-05-01

    Long term mortality was studied in a group of 57 chromate pigment workers who suffered clinical lead poisoning, mostly between 1930 and 1945. One death was attributed to lead poisoning and there were significant excesses of deaths from nephritis (observed/expected 3/0.24) and cerebrovascular disease (9/2.20), as well as non-significant excesses for respiratory diseases (7/3.59) and accidents and violence (3/1.13). The deaths from nephritis followed long spells of service exceeding 10 years. Poisoning appeared to have more adverse long term effects on older workers: 15 men aged 40 or over at the time of acute poisoning experienced generally high mortality, and 30 years later or by the end of 1981 only two survived instead of the seven expected. The risk of cerebrovascular disease appeared to be unrelated to duration of exposure and affected even men employed for under one year. Excluding the 57 lead poisoned men, other contemporary workers at the factories showed no excess mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

  17. Short-term and long-term effects of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with renal impairment: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ruifei; Wang, Rui; Li, Haixia; Sun, Sihao; Zou, Meijuan; Cheng, Gang

    2016-09-01

    To assess the short-term and long-term effects of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with renal impairment, a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials of DPP-4 inhibitor interventions in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with renal impairment was performed. PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched through the end of March 2015. Randomized clinical trials were selected if (1) DPP-4 inhibitors were compared with a placebo or other active-comparators, (2) the treatment duration was ≥12 weeks and (3) data regarding changes in haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c ), changes in fasting plasma glucose or hypoglycaemia and other adverse events were reported. Of 790 studies, ten studies on eight randomized clinical trials were included. Compared with the control group, DPP-4 inhibitors were associated with a greater HbA1c reduction in both the short-term [mean differences (MD) = -0.45, 95% confidence intervals (-0.57, -0.33), p 1] and long-term [MD = -0.33, 95% confidence intervals (-0.63, -0.03), p = 0.03] treatments. However, the long-term greater reduction in HbA1c with DPP-4 inhibitor treatment was only significant when the control treatment comprised placebo plus stable background treatment, but not glipizide plus stable background treatment. DPP-4 inhibitors were associated with a greater fasting plasma glucose reduction [MD = -12.59, 95% confidence intervals (-22.01, -3.17), p = 0.009] over the short-term; however, this effect was not present over the long-term. Regarding the hypoglycaemia adverse events assessment, the long-term treatment data indicated there was no increased risk of hypoglycaemia compared with placebo or active-controlled anti-diabetic drugs. The present meta-analysis confirms that DPP-4 inhibitors are effective and equivalent to other agents in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with renal impairment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015

  18. Long-Term Soil Experiments: A Key to Managing Earth's Rapidly Changing Critical Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, D., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    In a few decades, managers of Earth's Critical Zones (biota, humans, land, and water) will be challenged to double food and fiber production and diminish adverse effects of management on the wider environment. To meet these challenges, an array of scientific approaches is being used to increase understanding of Critical Zone functioning and evolution, and one amongst these approaches needs to be long-term soil field studies to move us beyond black boxing the belowground Critical Zone, i.e., to further understanding of processes driving changes in the soil environment. Long-term soil experiments (LTSEs) provide direct observations of soil change and functioning across time scales of decades, data critical for biological, biogeochemical, and environmental assessments of sustainability; for predictions of soil fertility, productivity, and soil-environment interactions; and for developing models at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Unfortunately, LTSEs globally are not in a good state, and they take years to mature, are vulnerable to loss, and even today remain to be fully inventoried. Of the 250 LTSEs in a web-based network, results demonstrate that soils and belowground Critical Zones are highly dynamic and responsive to human management. The objective of this study is to review the contemporary state of LTSEs and consider how they contribute to three open questions: (1) can soils sustain a doubling of food production in the coming decades without further impinging on the wider environment, (2) how do soils interact with the global C cycle, and (3) how can soil management establish greater control over nutrient cycling. While LTSEs produce significant data and perspectives for all three questions, there is on-going need and opportunity for reviews of the long-term soil-research base, for establishment of an efficiently run network of LTSEs aimed at sustainability and improving management control over C and nutrient cycling, and for research teams that

  19. A Japanese Stress Check Program screening tool predicts employee long-term sickness absence: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Shimazu, Akihito; Eguchi, Hisashi; Inoue, Akiomi; Kawakami, Norito

    2018-01-25

    On December 1, 2015, the Japanese government launched the Stress Check Program, a new occupational health policy to screen employees for high psychosocial stress in the workplace. As only weak evidence exists for the effectiveness of the program, we sought to estimate the risk of stress-associated long-term sickness absence as defined in the program manual. Participants were 7356 male and 7362 female employees in a financial service company who completed the Brief Job Stress Questionnaire (BJSQ). We followed them for 1 year and used company records to identify employees with sickness absence of 1 month or longer. We defined high-risk employees using the BJSQ and criteria recommended by the program manual. We used the Cox proportional regression model to evaluate the prospective association between stress and long-term sickness absence. During the follow-up period, we identified 34 male and 35 female employees who took long-term sickness absence. After adjustment for age, length of service, job type, position, and post-examination interview, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for incident long-term sickness absence in high-stress employees were 6.59 (3.04-14.25) for men and 2.77 (1.32-5.83) for women. The corresponding population attributable risks for high stress were 23.8% (10.3-42.6) for men and 21.0% (4.6-42.1) for women. During the 1-year follow-up, employees identified as high stress (as defined by the Stress Check Program manual) had significantly elevated risks for long-term sickness absence.

  20. Enhanced Dentate Neurogenesis after Brain Injury Undermines Long-Term Neurogenic Potential and Promotes Seizure Susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric J. Neuberger

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Hippocampal dentate gyrus is a focus of enhanced neurogenesis and excitability after traumatic brain injury. Increased neurogenesis has been proposed to aid repair of the injured network. Our data show that an early increase in neurogenesis after fluid percussion concussive brain injury is transient and is followed by a persistent decrease compared with age-matched controls. Post-injury changes in neurogenesis paralleled changes in neural precursor cell proliferation and resulted in a long-term decline in neurogenic capacity. Targeted pharmacology to restore post-injury neurogenesis to control levels reversed the long-term decline in neurogenic capacity. Limiting post-injury neurogenesis reduced early increases in dentate excitability and seizure susceptibility. Our results challenge the assumption that increased neurogenesis after brain injury is beneficial and show that early post-traumatic increases in neurogenesis adversely affect long-term outcomes by exhausting neurogenic potential and enhancing epileptogenesis. Treatments aimed at limiting excessive neurogenesis can potentially restore neuroproliferative capacity and limit epilepsy after brain injury.

  1. The effects of short- and long-term air pollutants on plant phenology and leaf characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jochner, Susanne; Markevych, Iana; Beck, Isabelle; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia

    2015-01-01

    Pollution adversely affects vegetation; however, its impact on phenology and leaf morphology is not satisfactorily understood yet. We analyzed associations between pollutants and phenological data of birch, hazel and horse chestnut in Munich (2010) along with the suitability of leaf morphological parameters of birch for monitoring air pollution using two datasets: cumulated atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone derived from passive sampling (short-term exposure) and pollutant information derived from Land Use Regression models (long-term exposure). Partial correlations and stepwise regressions revealed that increased ozone (birch, horse chestnut), NO_2, NO_x and PM levels (hazel) were significantly related to delays in phenology. Correlations were especially high when rural sites were excluded suggesting a better estimation of long-term within-city pollution. In situ measurements of foliar characteristics of birch were not suitable for bio-monitoring pollution. Inconsistencies between long- and short-term exposure effects suggest some caution when interpreting short-term data collected within field studies. - Highlights: • We present results of a field survey examining pollution effects on vegetation. • Particularly ozone was significantly associated with delays in spring phenology. • Leaf morphology of birch was found to be inadequate for bio-monitoring pollution. • Inconsistencies between long-/short-term exposure effects suggest caution. - Pollutants were significantly associated with delays in spring phenology. However, inconsistencies between long- and short-term exposure effects suggest some caution when interpreting results.

  2. Long-Term Leak Tightness Of O-Ring Seals In The 9975 Shipping Package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, E.; Skidmore, E.; Daugherty, W.

    2010-01-01

    O-ring seals in the 9975 shipping package containment vessels are fabricated from a Viton GLT or GLT-S compound. Long-term testing of these O-rings has been performed to support service life predictions for packages used for long-term storage. Since the only criterion for O-ring performance is to maintain a leak-tight seal, leak testing is the primary indicator of service life. Fixtures have been aging at elevated temperatures to provide data for service life predictions. Limited leak test failures have been observed at the higher temperatures. This provides the opportunity for comparison to trends based on other O-ring properties, such as compression stress relaxation. Initial data suggest that the CSR data have some predictive value for a leak-tight service life, but other factors can complicate efforts to draw definitive conclusions.

  3. Mid- and long-term effects of family constellation seminars in a general population sample: 8- and 12-month follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunger, Christina; Weinhold, Jan; Bornhäuser, Annette; Link, Leoni; Schweitzer, Jochen

    2015-06-01

    In a previous randomized controlled trial (RCT), short-term efficacy of family constellation seminars (FCSs) in a general population sample was demonstrated. In this article, we examined mid- and long-term stability of these effects. Participants were 104 adults (M = 47 years; SD = 9; 84% female) who were part of the intervention group in the original RCT (3-day FCS; 64 active participants and 40 observing participants). FCSs were carried out according to manuals. It was predicted that FCSs would improve psychological functioning (Outcome Questionnaire OQ-45.2) at 8- and 12-month follow-up. Additionally, we assessed the effects of FCSs on psychological distress, motivational incongruence, individuals' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. Participants yielded significant improvement in psychological functioning (d = 0.41 at 8-month follow-up, p = .000; d = 0.40 at 12-month follow-up, p = .000). Results were confirmed for psychological distress, motivational incongruence, the participants' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. No adverse events were reported. This study provides first evidence for the mid- and long-term efficacy of FCSs in a nonclinical population. The implications of the findings are discussed. © 2014 Family Process Institute.

  4. Deviations in energy sensing predict long-term weight change in overweight Native Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basolo, Alessio; Votruba, Susanne B; Heinitz, Sascha; Krakoff, Jonathan; Piaggi, Paolo

    2018-05-01

    Energy expenditure (EE), as reflective of body energy demand, has been proposed to be the key driver of food intake, possibly influencing weight change in humans. Variation in this energy-sensing link (overeating relative to weight-maintaining energy requirements) may lead to weight gain over time. Sixty-one overweight otherwise healthy Native Americans (age: 34.0 ± 7.9 years, body fat: 39.7 ± 9.5%, 36 males) were admitted to our clinical research unit for measurements of body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and 24-h EE and respiratory quotient (RQ) in a whole-room indirect calorimeter during energy balance and weight stability. Following this, ad libitum food intake was assessed for three days using computerized vending machines. Body weight change under unrestricted free-living conditions was assessed at an outpatient follow-up visit (median follow-up time = 1.7 years). Total ad libitum food intake (3-day average) was positively associated with 24-h EE (r = 0.44, p energy requirements can be assessed and predicts long-term weight gain, suggesting that variation in energy sensing may influence appetite by favoring overeating thus promoting obesity development. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Is non-HDL-cholesterol a better predictor of long-term outcome in patients after acute myocardial infarction compared to LDL-cholesterol? : a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongcharoen, Wanwarang; Sutthiwutthichai, Satjatham; Gunaparn, Siriluck; Phrommintikul, Arintaya

    2017-01-05

    It has recently been shown that non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) may be a better predictor of cardiovascular risk than low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Based on known ethic differences in lipid parameters and cardiovascular risk prediction, we sought to study the predictability of attaining non-HDL-C target and long-term major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) in Thai patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to attaining LDL-C target. We retrospectively obtained the data of all patients who were admitted at Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai hospital due to AMI during 2006-2013. The mean non-HDL-C and LDL-C during long-term follow-up were used to predict MACE at each time point. The patients were classified as target attainment if non-HDL-C LDL-C LDL-C target and 21.2% experienced MACEs. LDL-C and non-HDL-C were directly compared in Cox regression model. Compared with non-HDL-C 130 mg/dl had higher incidence of MACEs (HR 3.15, 95% CI 1.46-6.80, P = 0.003). Surprisingly, LDL-C >100 mg/dl was associated with reduced risk of MACE as compared to LDL LDL-C goal was not associated with the higher risk. Therefore, non-HDL-C may be a more suitable target of dyslipidemia treatment than LDL-C in patients after AMI.

  6. Disrupted Bone Metabolism in Long-Term Bedridden Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keiko Eimori

    Full Text Available Bedridden patients are at risk of osteoporosis and fractures, although the long-term bone metabolic processes in these patients are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to determine how long-term bed confinement affects bone metabolism.This study included 36 patients who had been bedridden from birth due to severe immobility. Bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers were compared to the bedridden period in all study patients. Changes in the bone metabolism markers during a follow-up of 12 years were studied in 17 patients aged <30 years at baseline.The bone mineral density was reduced (0.58±0.19 g/cm3, and the osteocalcin (13.9±12.4 ng/mL and urine N-terminal telopeptide (NTX levels (146.9±134.0 mM BCE/mM creatinine were greater than the cutoff value for predicting fracture. Among the bone metabolism markers studied, osteocalcin and NTX were negatively associated with the bedridden period. During the follow-up, osteocalcin and parathyroid hormone were decreased, and the 25(OH vitamin D was increased. NTX at baseline was negatively associated with bone mineral density after 12 years.Unique bone metabolic abnormalities were found in patients who had been bedridden for long periods, and these metabolic abnormalities were altered by further bed confinement. Appropriate treatment based on the unique bone metabolic changes may be important in long-term bedridden patients.

  7. Adverse trajectories of mental health problems predict subsequent burnout and work-family conflict: A longitudinal study of employed women with children followed over 18 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsen, W.; Skipstein, A.; Demerouti, E.

    2016-01-01

    Background The long-term consequence of experiencing mental health problems may lead to several adverse outcomes. The current study aims to validate previous identified trajectories of mental health problems from 1993 to 2006 in women by examining their implications on subsequent work and

  8. Self-reported immature defense style as a predictor of outcome in short-term and long-term psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laaksonen, Maarit A; Sirkiä, Carlos; Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi

    2014-07-01

    Identification of pretreatment patient characteristics predictive of psychotherapy outcome could help to guide treatment choices. This study evaluates patients' initial level of immature defense style as a predictor of the outcome of short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 adult outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to individual short-term (psychodynamic or solution-focused) or long-term (psychodynamic) psychotherapy. Their defense style was assessed at baseline using the 88-item Defense Style Questionnaire and classified as low or high around the median value of the respective score. Both specific (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI], Hamilton Depression Rating Scale [HDRS], Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale [SCL-90-Anx], Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale [HARS]) and global (Symptom Check List Global Severity Index [SCL-90-GSI], Global Assessment of Functioning Scale [GAF]) psychiatric symptoms were measured at baseline and 3-7 times during a 3-year follow-up. Patients with high use of immature defense style experienced greater symptom reduction in long-term than in short-term psychotherapy by the end of the 3-year follow-up (50% vs. 34%). Patients with low use of immature defense style experienced faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy during the first year of follow-up (34% vs. 19%). Knowledge of patients' initial level of immature defense style may potentially be utilized in tailoring treatments. Further research on defense styles as outcome predictors in psychotherapies of different types is needed.

  9. Prediction of Employee Turnover in Organizations using Machine Learning Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Rohit Punnoose; Pankaj Ajit

    2016-01-01

    Employee turnover has been identified as a key issue for organizations because of its adverse impact on work place productivity and long term growth strategies. To solve this problem, organizations use machine learning techniques to predict employee turnover. Accurate predictions enable organizations to take action for retention or succession planning of employees. However, the data for this modeling problem comes from HR Information Systems (HRIS); these are typically under-funded compared t...

  10. Conceptual distinctiveness supports detailed visual long-term memory for real-world objects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konkle, Talia; Brady, Timothy F; Alvarez, George A; Oliva, Aude

    2010-08-01

    Humans have a massive capacity to store detailed information in visual long-term memory. The present studies explored the fidelity of these visual long-term memory representations and examined how conceptual and perceptual features of object categories support this capacity. Observers viewed 2,800 object images with a different number of exemplars presented from each category. At test, observers indicated which of 2 exemplars they had previously studied. Memory performance was high and remained quite high (82% accuracy) with 16 exemplars from a category in memory, demonstrating a large memory capacity for object exemplars. However, memory performance decreased as more exemplars were held in memory, implying systematic categorical interference. Object categories with conceptually distinctive exemplars showed less interference in memory as the number of exemplars increased. Interference in memory was not predicted by the perceptual distinctiveness of exemplars from an object category, though these perceptual measures predicted visual search rates for an object target among exemplars. These data provide evidence that observers' capacity to remember visual information in long-term memory depends more on conceptual structure than perceptual distinctiveness. 2010 APA, all rights reserved

  11. Associative learning versus fear habituation as predictors of long-term extinction retention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lily A; LeBeau, Richard T; Chat, Ka Yi; Craske, Michelle G

    2017-06-01

    Violation of unconditioned stimulus (US) expectancy during extinction training may enhance associative learning and result in improved long-term extinction retention compared to within-session habituation. This experiment examines variation in US expectancy (i.e., expectancy violation) as a predictor of long-term extinction retention. It also examines within-session habituation of fear-potentiated startle (electromyography, EMG) and fear of conditioned stimuli (CS) throughout extinction training as predictors of extinction retention. Participants (n = 63) underwent fear conditioning, extinction and retention and provided continuous ratings of US expectancy and EMG, as well as CS fear ratings before and after each phase. Variation in US expectancy throughout extinction and habituation of EMG and fear was entered into a regression as predictors of retention and reinstatement of levels of expectancy and fear. Greater variation in US expectancy throughout extinction training was significantly predictive of enhanced extinction performance measured at retention test, although not after reinstatement test. Slope of EMG and CS fear during extinction did not predict retention of extinction. Within-session habituation of EMG and self-reported fear is not sufficient for long-term retention of extinction learning, and models emphasizing expectation violation may result in enhanced outcomes.

  12. Long-Term Follow-up of Uterine Artery Embolization for Symptomatic Adenomyosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smeets, A. J.; Nijenhuis, R. J.; Boekkooi, P. F.; Vervest, H. A. M.; Rooij, W. J. van; Lohle, P. N. M.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Long-term results of uterine artery embolization (UAE) for adenomyosis are largely unknown. We assess long-term outcome of UAE in 40 women with adenomyosis. Materials and methods: Between March 1999 and October 2006, 40 consecutive women with adenomyosis (22 in combination with fibroids) were treated with UAE. Changes in junction zone thickness were assessed with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and again at 3 months. After a mean clinical follow-up of 65 months (median 58 [range 38–129]), women filled out the uterine fibroid symptom and quality of life (UFS-QoL) questionnaire, which had additional questions on the long-term evolution of baseline symptoms and adverse events. Results: During follow-up, 7 of 40 women (18%) underwent hysterectomy. Among these 7 women, the junction zones were significantly thicker, both at baseline (mean 23 vs. 16 mm, P = 0.028) and at 3-month follow-up (mean 15 vs. 9 mm, P = 0.034). Of 33 women with preserved uterus, 29 were asymptomatic. Four patients had symptom severity scores of 50 to 85 and overall QoL scores of 60 to 66, indicating substantial clinical symptoms. There was no relation between clinical outcome and the initial presence of fibroids in addition to adenomyosis. Conclusion: In women with therapy-resistant adenomyosis, UAE resulted in long-term preservation of the uterus in the majority. Most patients with preserved uterus were asymptomatic. The only predictor for hysterectomy during follow-up was initial thickness of the junction zone. The presence or absence of fibroids in addition to adenomyosis had no relation with the need for hysterectomy or clinical outcome.

  13. Short- and Long-Term Prognostic Utility of the HEART Score in Patients Evaluated in the Emergency Department for Possible Acute Coronary Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Tarun; Nowak, Richard; Hudson, Michael; Frisoli, Tiberio; Jacobsen, Gordon; McCord, James

    2016-06-01

    The HEART score is a risk-stratification tool that was developed and validated for patients evaluated for possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the emergency department (ED). We sought to determine the short-term and long-term prognostic utility of the HEART score. A retrospective single-center analysis of 947 patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED in 1999 was conducted. Patients were followed for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) at 30 days: death, acute myocardial infarction, or revascularization procedure. All-cause mortality was assessed at 5 years. The HEART score was compared with the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score. At 30 days, 14% (135/947) of patients had an MACE: 48 deaths (5%), 84 acute myocardial infarctions (9%), and 48 (5%) revascularization procedures. The MACE rate in patients with HEART score ≤3 was 0.6% (1/175) involving a revascularization procedure, 9.5% (53/557) in patients with HEART score between 4 and 6, and 38% (81/215) with HEART score ≥7. The C-statistic for the HEART score was 0.82 and 0.68 for the TIMI score for predicting 30-day MACE (P < 0.05). Patients with HEART score ≤3 had lower 5-year mortality rate compared with those with TIMI score of 0 (10.6% vs. 20.5%, P = 0.02). The HEART score is a valuable risk-stratification tool in predicting not only short-term MACE but also long-term mortality in patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED. The HEART score had a superior prognostic value compared with the TIMI score.

  14. Long-term oxytocin administration improves social behaviors in a girl with autistic disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosaka, Hirotaka; Munesue, Toshio; Ishitobi, Makoto; Asano, Mizuki; Omori, Masao; Sato, Makoto; Tomoda, Akemi; Wada, Yuji

    2012-08-13

    Patients with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) exhibit core autistic symptoms including social impairments from early childhood and mostly show secondary disabilities such as irritability and aggressive behavior based on core symptoms. However, there are still no radical treatments of social impairments in these patients. Oxytocin has been reported to play important roles in multiple social behaviors dependent on social recognition, and has been expected as one of the effective treatments of social impairments of patients with ASDs. We present a case of a 16-year-old girl with autistic disorder who treated by long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray. Her autistic symptoms were successfully treated by two month administration; the girl's social interactions and social communication began to improve without adverse effects. Her irritability and aggressive behavior also improved dramatically with marked decreases in aberrant behavior checklist scores from 69 to 7. This case is the first to illustrate long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray in the targeted treatment of social impairments in a female with autistic disorder. This case suggests that long-term nasal oxytocin spray is promising and well-tolerated for treatment of social impairments of patients with ASDs.

  15. Long-term post-marketing surveillance of mizoribine for the treatment of lupus nephritis: Safety and efficacy during a 3-year follow-up

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuyuki Yagi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To determine the safety and efficacy of long-term use of mizoribine by undertaking a 3-year post-marketing surveillance study. Methods: Subjects were all lupus nephritis patients newly treated with mizoribine between 1 October 2003 and 30 September 2005 at contracted study sites. Results: Mizoribine was administered to 881 lupus nephritis patients in the safety analysis set consisting of 946 patients recruited from 281 contracted study sites after satisfying the eligibility criteria. There were 301 events of adverse drug reactions that were observed in 196 (20.7% of the 946 subjects. There were 34 events of serious adverse drug reactions in 31 patients (3.2%. No deterioration in hematological and biochemical test values was observed, but immunological testing showed significant improvements in C3, CH50, and anti-DNA antibody titers. The negative rate of proteinuria also increased over time. The median steroid dosage was 15 mg/day at the commencement of treatment, but was reduced to 10 mg/day at 12 months and 8 mg/day at 36 months. Conclusion: The findings of the 3-year long-term drug use surveillance study indicated that mizoribine can be used over the long term with relatively few adverse drug reactions, suggesting its suitability for use in maintenance drug therapy.

  16. Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy in Treating Long-Term Gastrointestinal Adverse Effects Caused by Radiation Therapy in Patients With Pelvic Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-14

    Bladder Cancer; Cervical Cancer; Colorectal Cancer; Endometrial Cancer; Gastrointestinal Complications; Long-term Effects Secondary to Cancer Therapy in Adults; Ovarian Cancer; Prostate Cancer; Radiation Toxicity; Sarcoma; Testicular Germ Cell Tumor; Vaginal Cancer

  17. Long-term use of Bonviva for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis: new evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Borisovna Yershova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is a disease of great social importance. Its treatment is a complicated problem and it is associated with low compliance and a risk for adverse reactions. Ibandronate belongs to a group of bisphosphonates. The performed trials have proven the efficacy of its two formulations (a tablet once monthly and intravenous injection once every 3 months in reducing the risk of bone fractures. At present there are data of trials of long-term therapy with this drug, which demonstrate its positive effect on bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers. The agent has been also shown to be highly safe when used long.

  18. Impact of delirium on postoperative frailty and long term cardiovascular events after cardiac surgery

    OpenAIRE

    Ogawa, Masato; Izawa, Kazuhiro P.; Satomi-Kobayashi, Seimi; Tsuboi, Yasunori; Komaki, Kodai; Gotake, Yasuko; Sakai, Yoshitada; Tanaka, Hiroshi; Okita, Yutaka

    2017-01-01

    Background Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and critical complication after cardiac surgery. However, the relationship between POD and postoperative physical frailty and the effect of both on long-term clinical outcomes have not been fully explored. Objective We aimed to examine the associations among POD, postoperative frailty, and major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Design This was a prospective cohort study. Methods We studied 329 consecutive patients undergoing elective cardiac s...

  19. Stochastic long term modelling of a drainage system with estimation of return period uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    2009-01-01

    Long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems are associated with large uncertainties. Especially on rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based methodology for stochastic prediction of...

  20. Reforming Long-Term Care Funding in Alberta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, R Trafford; Repin, Nadya; Sutherland, Jason M

    2015-01-01

    Like many provinces across Canada, Alberta is facing growing demand for long-term care. Issues with the mixed funding model used to pay long-term care providers had Alberta Health Services concerned that it was not efficiently meeting the demand for long-term care. Consequently, in 2010, Alberta Health Services introduced the patient/care-based funding (PCBF) model. PCBF is similar to activity-based funding in that it directly ties the complexity and care needs of long-term care residents to the payment received by long-term care providers. This review describes PCBF and discusses some of its strengths and weaknesses. In doing so, this review is intended to inform other provinces faced with similar long-term care challenges and contemplating their own funding reforms.

  1. Immunomodulatory effects of macrolide antibiotics - part 2: advantages and disadvantages of long-term, low-dose macrolide therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altenburg, J; de Graaff, C S; van der Werf, T S; Boersma, W G

    2011-01-01

    The available evidence for long-term, low-dose treatment with 14- and 15-membered ring macrolides in non-cystic fibrosis (CF) bronchiectasis, COPD, chronic sinusitis, and asthma is reviewed with special attention to possible adverse effects and the emergence of resistance during long-term macrolide treatment. Macrolide maintenance therapy has been proven to be of benefit in diffuse panbronchiolitis and CF, presumably due to an anti-inflammatory mechanism of action in addition to its direct antimicrobial effect. Solid evidence to justify this treatment regimen for non-CF bronchiectasis, asthma, or sinusitis is still lacking, although a beneficial effect of long-term macrolide therapy has been found in small clinical trials on these subjects. Data from randomized trials of long-term macrolide treatment in COPD are conflicting. A sufficiently long duration of treatment and the careful selection of patients appears to be crucial. Aside from its beneficial effects, possible side effects of macrolide treatment should be taken into account, the most important of these being gastrointestinal upset and cardiac arrhythmias. Development of macrolide resistance among respiratory pathogens is very common during long-term macrolide treatment. Whether this finding is clinically significant is a matter of debate. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Long-term management of high-level radioactive waste. The meaning of a demonstration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The ''demonstration'' of the safe management of high level radioactive waste is a prerequisite for the further development of nuclear energy. It is therefore essential to be clear about both the meaning of the term ''demonstration'' and the practical means to satisfy this request. In the complex sequence of operations necessary to the safe management of high level waste, short term activities can be directly demonstrated. For longer term activities, such as the long term isolation of radioactive waste in deep undergroung structures, demonstration must be indirect. The ''demonstration'' of deep underground disposal for high level radioactive waste involves two steps: one direct, to prove that the system could be built, operated and closed safely and at acceptable costs, and one indirect, to make a convincing evaluation of the system's performance and long term safety on the basis of predictive analyses confirmed by a body of varied technical and scienfic data, much of it deriving from experimental work. The assessment of the evidence collected from current operations, existing experience in related fields and specific research and development activities, calls for specialized scientific expertise. Uncertainties in far future situations and probabilistic events can be taken into account in a scientific assessment. Competent national authorithies will have to satisfy themselves that the proposed waste management solutions can meet long term safety objectives. An element of judgement will always be needed in determining the acceptability of a waste disposal concept. However, the level of confidence in our ability to predict the performance of waste management systems will increase as supporting evidence is collected from current research and development activities and as our predictive techniques improve

  3. Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage  = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies. © 2012 The Authors. Child Development © 2012 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  4. Improving Transit Predictions of Known Exoplanets with TERMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahadevan S.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Transiting planet discoveries have largely been restricted to the short-period or low-periastron distance regimes due to the bias inherent in the geometric transit probability. Through the refinement of planetary orbital parameters, and hence reducing the size of transit windows, long-period planets become feasible targets for photometric follow-up. Here we describe the TERMS project that is monitoring these host stars at predicted transit times.

  5. Inverse probability of treatment-weighted competing risks analysis: an application on long-term risk of urinary adverse events after prostate cancer treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolch, Charlotte A; Chu, Haitao; Jarosek, Stephanie; Cole, Stephen R; Elliott, Sean; Virnig, Beth

    2017-07-10

    To illustrate the 10-year risks of urinary adverse events (UAEs) among men diagnosed with prostate cancer and treated with different types of therapy, accounting for the competing risk of death. Prostate cancer is the second most common malignancy among adult males in the United States. Few studies have reported the long-term post-treatment risk of UAEs and those that have, have not appropriately accounted for competing deaths. This paper conducts an inverse probability of treatment (IPT) weighted competing risks analysis to estimate the effects of different prostate cancer treatments on the risk of UAE, using a matched-cohort of prostate cancer/non-cancer control patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Medicare database. Study dataset included men age 66 years or older that are 83% white and had a median follow-up time of 4.14 years. Patients that underwent combination radical prostatectomy and external beam radiotherapy experienced the highest risk of UAE (IPT-weighted competing risks: HR 3.65 with 95% CI (3.28, 4.07); 10-yr. cumulative incidence = 36.5%). Findings suggest that IPT-weighted competing risks analysis provides an accurate estimator of the cumulative incidence of UAE taking into account the competing deaths as well as measured confounding bias.

  6. Non-O blood groups can be a prognostic marker of in-hospital and long-term major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cetin, Mehmet Serkan; Ozcan Cetin, Elif Hande; Aras, Dursun; Topaloglu, Serkan; Temizhan, Ahmet; Kisacik, Halil Lutfi; Aydogdu, Sinan

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies have suggested ABO blood type locus as an inherited predictor of thrombosis, cardiovascular risk factors, myocardial infarction. However, data is scarce about the impact of non-O blood groups on prognosis in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic importance of non-O blood groups in patients with STEMI undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) METHODS: 1835 consecutive patients who were admitted with acute STEMI between 2010 and 2015 were included and followed-up for a median of 35.6months. The prevalence of hyperlipidemia, total cholesterol, LDL, peak CKMB and no-reflow as well as hospitalization duration were higher in patients with non-O blood groups. Gensini score did not differ between groups. During the in-hospital and long-term follow-up period, MACE, the prevalence of stent thrombosis, non-fatal MI, and mortality were higher in non-O blood groups. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, non-0 blood groups were demonstrated to be independent predictors of in-hospital (OR:2.085 %CI: 1.328-3.274 p=0.001) and long term MACE (OR:2.257 %CI: 1.325-3.759 pblood group compared with O blood group (pblood groups were determined to be significant prognostic indicators of short- and long-term cardiovascular adverse events and mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing pPCI. In conjunction with other prognostic factors, evaluation of this parameter may improve the risk categorization and tailoring the individual therapy and follow-up in STEMI patient population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

  8. Industrial Foundations as Long-Term Owners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Steen; Poulsen, Thomas; Børsting, Christa Winther

    Short-termism has become a serious concern for corporate governance, and this has inspired a search for institutional arrangements to promote long-term decision-making. In this paper, we call attention to long-term ownership by industrial foundations, which is common in Northern Europe but little...... known in the rest of the world. We use a unique Danish data set to document that industrial foundations are long-term owners that practice long-term governance. We show that foundation ownership is highly stable compared to other ownership structures. Foundation-owned companies replace managers less...... frequently. They have conservative capital structures with low financial leverage. They score higher on an index of long-termism in finance, investment, and employment. They survive longer. Overall, our paper supports the hypothesis that corporate time horizons are influenced by ownership structures...

  9. Liquid nitrogen spray cryotherapy in Barrett's esophagus with high-grade dysplasia: long-term results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosain, Sonia; Mercer, Kim; Twaddell, William S; Uradomo, Lance; Greenwald, Bruce D

    2013-08-01

    Liquid nitrogen endoscopic spray cryotherapy can safely and effectively eradicate high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus (BE-HGD). Long-term data on treatment success and safety are lacking. To assess the long-term safety and efficacy of spray cryotherapy in patients with BE-HGD. Single-center, retrospective study. Tertiary-care referral center. A total of 32 patients with BE-HGD of any length. Patients were treated with liquid nitrogen spray cryotherapy every 8 weeks until complete eradication of HGD (CE-HGD) and intestinal metaplasia (CE-IM) was found by endoscopic biopsy. Surveillance endoscopy with biopsies was performed for at least 2 years. CE-HGD, CE-IM, durability of response, disease progression, and adverse events. CE-HGD was 100% (32/32), and CE-IM was 84% (27/32) at 2-year follow-up. At last follow-up (range 24-57 months), CE-HGD was 31/32 (97%), and CE-IM was 26/32 (81%). Recurrent HGD was found in 6 (18%), with CE-HGD in 5 after repeat treatment. One patient progressed to adenocarcinoma, downgraded to HGD after repeat cryotherapy. BE segment length ≥3 cm was associated with a higher recurrence of IM (P = .004; odds ratio 22.6) but not HGD. No serious adverse events occurred. Stricture was seen in 3 patients (9%), all successfully dilated. Retrospective study design, small sample size. In patients with BE-HGD, liquid nitrogen spray cryotherapy has an acceptable safety profile and success rate for eliminating HGD and IM and is associated with a low rate of recurrence or progression to cancer with long-term follow-up. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Long-term efficacy and safety of ramosetron in the treatment of diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiba T

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Toshimi Chiba, Kazunari Yamamoto, Shoko Sato, Kazuyuki Suzuki Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Iwate Medical University, Morioka, Iwate, Japan Abstract: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS is a functional disease with persisting gastrointestinal symptoms that has been classified into four subtypes. Serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine [5-HT] plays important physiological roles in the contraction and relaxation of smooth muscle. Intraluminal distension of the intestine is known to stimulate the release of endogenous 5-HT from enterochromaffin cells, activating 5-HT3 receptors located on primary afferent neurons and leading to increases in intestinal secretions and peristaltic activity. Ramosetron, a potent and selective 5-HT3-receptor antagonist, has been in development for use in patients suffering from diarrhea-predominant IBS. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group study of 418 patients with diarrhea-predominant IBS-D, once-daily 5 µg and 10 µg doses of ramosetron increased the monthly responder rates of IBS symptoms compared to placebo. In a 12-week randomized controlled trial of 539 patients, a positive response to treatment was reported by 47% of a once-daily 5 µg dose of ramosetron-treated individuals compared to 27% of patients receiving placebo (P<0.001. Furthermore, the responder rate was increased in the oral administration of 5 µg of ramosetron for at least 28 weeks (up to 52 weeks, and long-term efficacy for overall improvement of IBS symptoms was also demonstrated. The rate was further increased subsequently. Adverse events were reported by 7% in ramosetron treatment. No serious adverse events, eg, severe constipation or ischemic colitis, were reported for long-term treatment with ramosetron. In conclusion, further studies to evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of ramosetron are warranted in the form of randomized controlled trials. Keywords: long-term

  11. An Account of Performance in Accessing Information Stored in Long-Term Memory. A Fixed-Links Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altmeyer, Michael; Schweizer, Karl; Reiss, Siegbert; Ren, Xuezhu; Schreiner, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Performance in working memory and short-term memory tasks was employed for predicting performance in a long-term memory task in order to find out about the underlying processes. The types of memory were represented by versions of the Posner Task, the Backward Counting Task and the Sternberg Task serving as measures of long-term memory, working…

  12. Neonatal Brain Pathology Predicts Adverse Attention and Processing Speed Outcomes in Very Preterm and/or Very Low Birth Weight Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Andrea L; Scratch, Shannon E; Thompson, Deanne K; Inder, Terrie E; Doyle, Lex W; Anderson, Jacqueline F. I.; Anderson, Peter J

    2014-01-01

    Objective This study aimed to examine attention and processing speed outcomes in very preterm (VPT; deep gray matter, and cerebellar abnormalities. Attention and processing speed were assessed at 7 years using standardized neuropsychological tests. Group differences were tested in attention and processing speed, and the relationships between these cognitive domains and brain abnormalities at birth were investigated. Results At 7 years of age, the VPT/VLBW group performed significantly poorer than term controls on all attention and processing speed outcomes. Associations between adverse attention and processing speed performances at 7 years and higher neonatal brain abnormality scores were found; in particular, white matter and deep gray matter abnormalities were reasonable predictors of long-term cognitive outcomes. Conclusion Attention and processing speed are significant areas of concern in VPT/VLBW children. This is the first study to show that adverse attention and processing speed outcomes at 7 years are associated with neonatal brain pathology. PMID:24708047

  13. Prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes using uterine artery Doppler imaging at 22-24 weeks of pregnancy: A North Indian experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepti Verma

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of uterine artery Doppler imaging at 22-24 weeks of gestation for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Materials and Methods: This was a prospective study in which uterine artery Doppler was performed at 22-24 weeks of gestation in 165 pregnant women with singleton pregnancies. A pulsatility index (PI more than 1.45 or bilateral uterine notching was labeled as abnormal Doppler. The pregnancy outcome was assessed in terms of normal outcome, preeclampsia, fetal growth restriction (FGR, low birth weight, spontaneous preterm delivery, oligohydramnios, fetal loss or at least one adverse outcome. Results: Out of 165 patients, 35 (21.2% had abnormal second trimester uterine artery Doppler. In pregnancies that resulted in preeclampsia (PE, (n=21, FGR, (n=21, and low birth weight (n=39, the median uterine artery PI was higher (1.52, 1.41, and 1.27 respectively. In the presence of abnormal Doppler, the risk of PE [OR=10.7, 95% confidence interval (CI: (3.91-29.1; p<0.001], FGR [OR=4.34, 95% CI: (1.62-11.6; p=0.002], low birth weight [OR=6.39, 95% CI: (3.16-12.9; p<0.001] and the risk of at least one obstetric complication [OR=8.73, 95% CI: (3.5-21.3; p<0.001] was significantly high. The positive predictive value of abnormal uterine artery Doppler was highest for preeclampsia (36.84% among all adverse pregnancy outcomes assessed. Conclusion: Uterine artery Doppler ultrasonography at 22-24 weeks of gestation is a significant predictor of at least one adverse pregnancy outcome, with the highest prediction for preeclampsia.

  14. Mathematical models of human paralyzed muscle after long-term training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, L A Frey; Shields, R K

    2007-01-01

    Spinal cord injury (SCI) results in major musculoskeletal adaptations, including muscle atrophy, faster contractile properties, increased fatigability, and bone loss. The use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) provides a method to prevent paralyzed muscle adaptations in order to sustain force-generating capacity. Mathematical muscle models may be able to predict optimal activation strategies during FES, however muscle properties further adapt with long-term training. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of three muscle models, one linear and two nonlinear, for predicting paralyzed soleus muscle force after exposure to long-term FES training. Further, we contrasted the findings between the trained and untrained limbs. The three models' parameters were best fit to a single force train in the trained soleus muscle (N=4). Nine additional force trains (test trains) were predicted for each subject using the developed models. Model errors between predicted and experimental force trains were determined, including specific muscle force properties. The mean overall error was greatest for the linear model (15.8%) and least for the nonlinear Hill Huxley type model (7.8%). No significant error differences were observed between the trained versus untrained limbs, although model parameter values were significantly altered with training. This study confirmed that nonlinear models most accurately predict both trained and untrained paralyzed muscle force properties. Moreover, the optimized model parameter values were responsive to the relative physiological state of the paralyzed muscle (trained versus untrained). These findings are relevant for the design and control of neuro-prosthetic devices for those with SCI.

  15. Accumulation of Cd in agricultural soil under long-term reclaimed water irrigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Weiping; Lu, Sidan; Peng, Chi; Jiao, Wentao; Wang, Meie

    2013-01-01

    Safety of agricultural irrigation with reclaimed water is of great concern as some potential hazardous compounds like heavy metals may be accumulated in soils over time. Impacts of long-term reclaimed water on soil Cd pollution were evaluated based on the field investigation in two main crop areas in Beijing with long irrigation history and on simulation results of STEM-profile model. Under long-term reclaimed water, Cd content in the top 20 cm soil layer was greatly elevated and was more than 2 times higher than that in the deep soil layer. There was very small differences between the field measured and model simulated Cd content in the plow layer (top 20 cm) and entire soil layer. Long-term model prediction showed that reclaimed water irrigation had a low environmental risk of soil Cd pollution, but the risk would be aggravated when there were high metal loading from other sources. The risk is also depending on the soil and plant properties. -- Highlights: •Root zone soil Cd content was elevated by one time under long-term reclaimed water irrigation. •The STEM-profile model can well track the Cd balance in the soil profile. •Reclaimed water irrigation plays a limited role on soil Cd accumulation in Beijing croplands. -- There was a low risk of soil Cd pollution under long-term reclaimed water irrigation

  16. Usefulness of desmopressin testing to predict relapse during long-term follow-up in patients in remission from Cushing’s disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Giacinto Ambrogio

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Recurrence of Cushing’s disease after successful transsphenoidal surgery occurs in some 30% of the patients and the response to desmopressin shortly after surgery has been proposed as a marker for disease recurrence. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the response to desmopressin over time after surgery. We tested 56 patients with Cushing’s disease in remission after transsphenoidal surgery with desmopressin for up to 20 years after surgery. The ACTH and cortisol response to desmopressin over time was evaluated in patients on long-term remission or undergoing relapse; an increase by at least 27 pg/mL in ACTH levels identified responders. The vast majority of patients who underwent successful adenomectomy failed to respond to desmopressin after surgery and this response pattern was maintained over time in patients on long-term remission. Conversely, a response to desmopressin reappeared in patients who subsequently developed a recurrence of Cushing’s disease, even years prior to frank hypercortisolism. It appears therefore that a change in the response pattern to desmopressin proves predictive of recurrence of Cushing’s disease and may indicate which patients require close monitoring.

  17. Long-term Prognosis in COPD Exacerbation: Role of Biomarkers, Clinical Variables and Exacerbation Type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grolimund, Eva; Kutz, Alexander; Marlowe, Robert J; Vögeli, Alaadin; Alan, Murat; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Thomann, Robert; Falconnier, Claudine; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Zimmerli, Werner; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2015-06-01

    Long-term outcome prediction in COPD is challenging. We conducted a prospective 5-7-year follow-up study in patients with COPD to determine the association of exacerbation type, discharge levels of inflammatory biomarkers including procalctionin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell count (WBC) and plasma proadrenomedullin (ProADM), alone or combined with demographic/clinical characteristics, with long-term all-cause mortality in the COPD setting. The analyzed cohort comprised 469 patients with index hospitalization for pneumonic (n = 252) or non-pneumonic (n = 217) COPD exacerbation. Five-to-seven-year vital status was ascertained via structured phone interviews with patients or their household members/primary care physicians. We investigated predictive accuracy using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). After a median [25th-75th percentile] 6.1 [5.6-6.5] years, mortality was 55% (95%CI 50%-59%). Discharge ProADM concentration was strongly associated with 5-7-year non-survival: adjusted hazard ratio (HR)/10-fold increase (95%CI) 10.4 (6.2-17.7). Weaker associations were found for PCT and no significant associations were found for CRP or WBC. Combining ProADM with demographic/clinical variables including age, smoking status, BMI, New York Heart Association dyspnea class, exacerbation type, and comorbidities significantly improved long-term predictive accuracy over that of the demographic/clinical model alone: AUC (95%CI) 0.745 (0.701-0.789) versus 0.727 (0.681-0.772), (p) = .043. In patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation, discharge ProADM levels appeared to accurately predict 5-7-year all-cause mortality and to improve long-term prognostic accuracy of multidimensional demographic/clinical mortality risk assessment.

  18. Effective Moment Of Inertia And Deflections Of Reinforced Concrete Beams Under Long-Term Loading

    OpenAIRE

    Mahmood, Khalid M.; Ashour, Samir A.; Al-Noury, Soliman I.

    1995-01-01

    The paper presents a method for estimating long-term deflections of reinforced concrete beams by considering creep and shrinkage effects separately. Based on equilibrium and compatibility conditions a method is developed for investigating the properties of a cracked transformed section under sustained load. The concept of effective moment of inertia is extended to predict initial-plus-creep deflections. Long-term deflections computed by the proposed method are compared with the experimental r...

  19. Monitoring and modeling of long-term settlements of an experimental landfill in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Gustavo Ferreira; Catapreta, Cícero Antônio Antunes

    2013-02-01

    Settlement evaluation in sanitary landfills is a complex process, due to the waste heterogeneity, time-varying properties and influencing factors and mechanisms, such as mechanical compression due to load application and creep, and physical-chemical and biological processes caused by the wastes decomposition. Many empirical models for the analysis of long-term settlement in landfills are reported in the literature. This paper presents the results of a settlement monitoring program carried out during 6 years in Belo Horizonte experimental landfill. Different sets of field data were used to calibrate three long-term settlement prediction models (rheological, hyperbolic and composite). The parameters obtained in the calibration were used to predict the settlements and to compare with actual field data. During the monitoring period of 6 years, significant vertical strains were observed (of up to 31%) in relation to the initial height of the experimental landfill. The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by the hyperbolic and rheological models significantly underestimate the settlements, regardless the period of data used in the calibration. The best fits were obtained with the composite model, except when 1 year field data were used in the calibration. The results of the composite model indicate settlements stabilization at larger times and with larger final settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Long-term collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2007-01-01

    The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

  1. Comment on the Long-Term Chemical and Mineralogical Stability of the Buffer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, Randy; Apted, Mick; Stenhouse, Mike

    2005-03-01

    is assumed either to be stable or to alter to a less expandable mineral at an extremely slow, but predictable, rate. Unfortunately, this approach appears to have two inherent limitations: 1) it cannot be used to relate specific conditions of smectite stability/instability to evolving geochemical conditions in the near field, and 2) it may overemphasize the importance of accessory minerals and surface reactions in controlling the long-term chemical and mineralogical evolution of bentonite barriers. Dissolution, transport and precipitation processes during the resaturation phase and transient thermal period of repository evolution could cause individual clay particles in the buffer to become cemented together. Cementation could adversely affect the physical and microstructural properties of this barrier. SKB's current approach for modeling bentonite-water interactions may not be an appropriate basis for evaluating the potential long-term effects of cementation on buffer performance, due to the basic limitations in this approach noted above.

  2. Modeling Long Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laila Alejandra Puntel

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L. can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L. yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha-1 applied to corn. Our objectives were to: a quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; b compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and c utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simultaneously simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration, which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration. For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-yr mean differences in EONR’s were within the historical N rate error range (40 to 50 kg N ha-1. However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching with precipitation. We concluded that long term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add

  3. Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

    2016-01-01

    Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn ( Zea mays L. ) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean ( Glycine max L. ) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha -1 ) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR's were within the historical N rate error range (40-50 kg N ha -1 ). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward

  4. Long-term management of intractable epilepsy in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIU Yu-jie

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Achievement of seizure free is the ultimate goal of patients with epilepsy. Lifelong treatment may be needed in some epileptic children, especially in those with intractable epilepsy. To be more realistic, this goal may be modified to reduce the frequency of more disabling types of seizures. Chronic seizures influence children in social activities, psychology,cognition as well as many other aspects. Therefore, their long-term management requires concerted lifelong care of pediatricians, neurologists and social workers. During the course of treatment, doctors should evaluate the patients regularly, prevent and control the side effects of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs and monitor patients for AEDs-associated adverse events. In addition, doctors should choose the optimal therapeutic regimen for patients with refractory epilepsy, and achieve a balance between benefit and risk in order to improve the quality of life of patients.

  5. Deferasirox: appraisal of safety and efficacy in long-term therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaudhary P

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Preeti Chaudhary, Vinod PullarkatJane Ann Nohl Division of Hematology, University of Southern California Keck School of Medicine, Los Angeles, CA, USAAbstract: Deferasirox is a once-daily, oral iron chelator that is widely used in the management of patients with transfusional hemosiderosis. Several Phase II trials along with their respective extension studies as well as a Phase III trial have established the efficacy and safety of this novel agent in transfusion-dependent patients with β-thalassemia, sickle-cell disease and bone marrow-failure syndromes, including myelodysplastic syndrome and aplastic anemia. Data from various clinical trials show that a deferasirox dose of 20 mg/kg/day stabilizes serum ferritin levels and liver iron concentration, while a dose of 30–40 mg/kg/day reduces these parameters and achieves negative iron balance in red cell transfusion-dependent patients with iron overload. Across various pivotal clinical trials, deferasirox was well tolerated, with the most common adverse events being gastrointestinal disturbances, skin rash, nonprogressive increases in serum creatinine, and elevations in liver enzyme levels. Longer-term extension studies have also confirmed the efficacy and safety of deferasirox. However, it is essential that patients on deferasirox therapy are monitored regularly to ensure timely management for any adverse events that may occur with long-term therapy.Keywords: deferasirox, iron overload, thalassemia, sickle-cell disease, myelodysplastic syndrome

  6. On the Beat Detection Performance in Long-Term ECG Monitoring Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco-Manuel Melgarejo-Meseguer

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Despite the wide literature on R-wave detection algorithms for ECG Holter recordings, the long-term monitoring applications are bringing new requirements, and it is not clear that the existing methods can be straightforwardly used in those scenarios. Our aim in this work was twofold: First, we scrutinized the scope and limitations of existing methods for Holter monitoring when moving to long-term monitoring; Second, we proposed and benchmarked a beat detection method with adequate accuracy and usefulness in long-term scenarios. A longitudinal study was made with the most widely used waveform analysis algorithms, which allowed us to tune the free parameters of the required blocks, and a transversal study analyzed how these parameters change when moving to different databases. With all the above, the extension to long-term monitoring in a database of 7-day Holter monitoring was proposed and analyzed, by using an optimized simultaneous-multilead processing. We considered both own and public databases. In this new scenario, the noise-avoid mechanisms are more important due to the amount of noise that exists in these recordings, moreover, the computational efficiency is a key parameter in order to export the algorithm to the clinical practice. The method based on a Polling function outperformed the others in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency, yielding 99.48% sensitivity, 99.54% specificity, 99.69% positive predictive value, 99.46% accuracy, and 0.85% error for MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. We conclude that the method can be used in long-term Holter monitoring systems.

  7. FP7 project LONGLIFE: Treatment of long-term irradiation embrittlement effects in RPV safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, J.; Hein, H.; Altstadt, E.; Bergner, F.; Viehrig, H.W.; Ulbricht, A.; Chaouadi, R.; Radiguet, B.; Cammelli, S.; Huang, H.; Wilford, K.

    2012-01-01

    The increasing age of European Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) and envisaged extensions of plant lifetimes from 40 up to 80 years require an improved understanding of ageing phenomena of RPV components. The Network of Excellence NULIFE (Nuclear Plant Life Prediction) has been established to advance the safe and economic long-term operation (LTO) of NPPs by facilitating increased co-operation for applied R and D amongst members of the European nuclear community. The accurate prediction and management of RPV neutron irradiation embrittlement connected with long-term operation is an important aspect of this co-operation. Phenomena that might become important at high neutron fluences (such as flux effects and late blooming effects) have to be considered adequately in safety assessments. However, the surveillance database for prolonged irradiation times and low neutron fluxes is sparse. Consequently, there are significant uncertainties in the treatment of long-term irradiation effects. Therefore, the project LONGLIFE (Treatment of long-term irradiation embrittlement effects in RPV safety assessment) was initiated under the Euratom 7th Framework Programme of the European Commission as an umbrella project of NULIFE. LONGLIFE aims at 1) improved understanding of long-term irradiation phenomena that might compromise RPV integrity, and thereby the LTO of European NPPs, and 2) assessment of the adequacy of current prediction tools, codes, standards and surveillance guidelines for supporting long-term RPV operation. The scope of the work comprises the analysis of LTO boundary conditions; microstructural investigations and supplementary mechanical tests on RPV steels, including RPV steels from decommissioned plants; training activities; and elaboration of recommendations for RPV materials assessment and embrittlement surveillance under LTO conditions. A key part of the technical work is the selection of relevant materials for examination, e.g. which contain different weld and base

  8. Predicting long-term average concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants using GIS-based information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochadel, Matthias; Heinrich, Joachim; Gehring, Ulrike; Morgenstern, Verena; Kuhlbusch, Thomas; Link, Elke; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Krämer, Ursula

    Global regression models were developed to estimate individual levels of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollutants. The models are based on data of a one-year measurement programme including geographic data on traffic and population densities. This investigation is part of a cohort study on the impact of traffic-related air pollution on respiratory health, conducted at the westerly end of the Ruhr-area in North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany. Concentrations of NO 2, fine particle mass (PM 2.5) and filter absorbance of PM 2.5 as a marker for soot were measured at 40 sites spread throughout the study region. Fourteen-day samples were taken between March 2002 and March 2003 for each season and site. Annual average concentrations for the sites were determined after adjustment for temporal variation. Information on traffic counts in major roads, building densities and community population figures were collected in a geographical information system (GIS). This information was used to calculate different potential traffic-based predictors: (a) daily traffic flow and maximum traffic intensity of buffers with radii from 50 to 10 000 m and (b) distances to main roads and highways. NO 2 concentration and PM 2.5 absorbance were strongly correlated with the traffic-based variables. Linear regression prediction models, which involved predictors with radii of 50 to 1000 m, were developed for the Wesel region where most of the cohort members lived. They reached a model fit ( R2) of 0.81 and 0.65 for NO 2 and PM 2.5 absorbance, respectively. Regression models for the whole area required larger spatial scales and reached R2=0.90 and 0.82. Comparison of predicted values with NO 2 measurements at independent public monitoring stations showed a satisfactory association ( r=0.66). PM 2.5 concentration, however, was only slightly correlated and thus poorly predictable by traffic-based variables ( rGIS-based regression models offer a promising approach to assess individual levels of

  9. Compensation for PKMζ in long-term potentiation and spatial long-term memory in mutant mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsokas, Panayiotis; Hsieh, Changchi; Yao, Yudong; Lesburguères, Edith; Wallace, Emma Jane Claire; Tcherepanov, Andrew; Jothianandan, Desingarao; Hartley, Benjamin Rush; Pan, Ling; Rivard, Bruno; Farese, Robert V; Sajan, Mini P; Bergold, Peter John; Hernández, Alejandro Iván; Cottrell, James E; Shouval, Harel Z; Fenton, André Antonio; Sacktor, Todd Charlton

    2016-05-17

    PKMζ is a persistently active PKC isoform proposed to maintain late-LTP and long-term memory. But late-LTP and memory are maintained without PKMζ in PKMζ-null mice. Two hypotheses can account for these findings. First, PKMζ is unimportant for LTP or memory. Second, PKMζ is essential for late-LTP and long-term memory in wild-type mice, and PKMζ-null mice recruit compensatory mechanisms. We find that whereas PKMζ persistently increases in LTP maintenance in wild-type mice, PKCι/λ, a gene-product closely related to PKMζ, persistently increases in LTP maintenance in PKMζ-null mice. Using a pharmacogenetic approach, we find PKMζ-antisense in hippocampus blocks late-LTP and spatial long-term memory in wild-type mice, but not in PKMζ-null mice without the target mRNA. Conversely, a PKCι/λ-antagonist disrupts late-LTP and spatial memory in PKMζ-null mice but not in wild-type mice. Thus, whereas PKMζ is essential for wild-type LTP and long-term memory, persistent PKCι/λ activation compensates for PKMζ loss in PKMζ-null mice.

  10. Markers of sarcopenia quantified by computed tomography predict adverse long-term outcome in patients with resected oesophageal or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamandl, Dietmar; Baltzer, Pascal A.; Ba-Ssalamah, Ahmed; Paireder, Matthias; Asari, Reza; Schoppmann, Sebastian F.

    2016-01-01

    To assess the impact of sarcopenia and alterations in body composition parameters (BCPs) on survival after surgery for oesophageal and gastro-oesophageal junction cancer (OC). 200 consecutive patients who underwent resection for OC between 2006 and 2013 were selected. Preoperative CTs were used to assess markers of sarcopenia and body composition (total muscle area [TMA], fat-free mass index [FFMi], fat mass index [FMi], subcutaneous, visceral and retrorenal fat [RRF], muscle attenuation). Cox regression was used to assess the primary outcome parameter of overall survival (OS) after surgery. 130 patients (65 %) had sarcopenia based on preoperative CT examinations. Sarcopenic patients showed impaired survival compared to non-sarcopenic individuals (hazard ratio [HR] 1.87, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.15-3.03, p = 0.011). Furthermore, low skeletal muscle attenuation (HR 1.91, 95 % CI 1.12-3.28, p = 0.019) and increased FMi (HR 3.47, 95 % CI 1.27-9.50, p = 0.016) were associated with impaired outcome. In the multivariate analysis, including a composite score (CSS) of those three parameters and clinical variables, only CSS, T-stage and surgical resection margin remained significant predictors of OS. Patients who show signs of sarcopenia and alterations in BCPs on preoperative CT images have impaired long-term outcome after surgery for OC. (orig.)

  11. Markers of sarcopenia quantified by computed tomography predict adverse long-term outcome in patients with resected oesophageal or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamandl, Dietmar; Baltzer, Pascal A.; Ba-Ssalamah, Ahmed [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Comprehensive Cancer Center GET-Unit, Vienna (Austria); Paireder, Matthias; Asari, Reza; Schoppmann, Sebastian F. [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Surgery, Upper-GI-Service, Comprehensive Cancer Center GET-Unit, Vienna (Austria)

    2016-05-15

    To assess the impact of sarcopenia and alterations in body composition parameters (BCPs) on survival after surgery for oesophageal and gastro-oesophageal junction cancer (OC). 200 consecutive patients who underwent resection for OC between 2006 and 2013 were selected. Preoperative CTs were used to assess markers of sarcopenia and body composition (total muscle area [TMA], fat-free mass index [FFMi], fat mass index [FMi], subcutaneous, visceral and retrorenal fat [RRF], muscle attenuation). Cox regression was used to assess the primary outcome parameter of overall survival (OS) after surgery. 130 patients (65 %) had sarcopenia based on preoperative CT examinations. Sarcopenic patients showed impaired survival compared to non-sarcopenic individuals (hazard ratio [HR] 1.87, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.15-3.03, p = 0.011). Furthermore, low skeletal muscle attenuation (HR 1.91, 95 % CI 1.12-3.28, p = 0.019) and increased FMi (HR 3.47, 95 % CI 1.27-9.50, p = 0.016) were associated with impaired outcome. In the multivariate analysis, including a composite score (CSS) of those three parameters and clinical variables, only CSS, T-stage and surgical resection margin remained significant predictors of OS. Patients who show signs of sarcopenia and alterations in BCPs on preoperative CT images have impaired long-term outcome after surgery for OC. (orig.)

  12. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior. Research document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    2003-02-01

    Micro-structure of rock plays an essential role for their long-term behavior. For elucidating long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) Conformal Lase Scanning Microscope (LSM) observation of configuration of a joint in granite, its Fourier analysis and the change under uniaxial stress condition, 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, 3) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by LSM under uniaxial compression, and 4) a study of strong discontinuity analysis included in the homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. Rock image processing and analysis become a fundamental procedure to determine rock surface discontinuities. In Chapter 2 LSM that can acquire three-dimensional images is introduced to observe the roughness of discontinuity in a rock specimen. Then, discontinuities appeared on circular sections are identified by LSM and characterized by a Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) analysis. The change of discontinuities is observed under applying stress. Microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock. In Chapter 3 a progressive development of cracking in granite is revealed by using stereoscopic microscope under water-saturated triaxial compression condition. Next by using LSM observe the procedure of micro-cracking under uniaxial compression condition. Obviously the micro-crack initiation and propagation controls the time-dependent behavior of granite. We have analysed the behavior by a viscoelastic theory applied in homogenization method. However since it is difficult to determine the inter-granular properties of constituent crystals and to represent the stress-dependent nonlinear characteristics by this method, we study a strong discontinuity analysis included in the

  13. Estimation of long-term probabilities for inadvertent intrusion into radioactive waste management areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eedy, W.; Hart, D.

    1988-05-01

    The risk to human health from radioactive waste management sites can be calculated as the product of the probability of accidental exposure (intrusion) times the probability of a health effect from such exposure. This report reviews the literature and evaluates methods used to predict the probabilities for unintentional intrusion into radioactive waste management areas in Canada over a 10,000-year period. Methods to predict such probabilities are available. They generally assume a long-term stability in terms of existing resource uses and society in the management area. The major potential for errors results from the unlikeliness of these assumptions holding true over such lengthy periods of prediction

  14. Early Life Exposure to Fructose and Offspring Phenotype: Implications for Long Term Metabolic Homeostasis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloboda, Deborah M.; Li, Minglan; Patel, Rachna; Clayton, Zoe E.; Yap, Cassandra; Vickers, Mark H.

    2014-01-01

    The consumption of artificially sweetened processed foods, particularly high in fructose or high fructose corn syrup, has increased significantly in the past few decades. As such, interest into the long term outcomes of consuming high levels of fructose has increased significantly, particularly when the exposure is early in life. Epidemiological and experimental evidence has linked fructose consumption to the metabolic syndrome and associated comorbidities—implicating fructose as a potential factor in the obesity epidemic. Yet, despite the widespread consumption of fructose-containing foods and beverages and the rising incidence of maternal obesity, little attention has been paid to the possible adverse effects of maternal fructose consumption on the developing fetus and long term effects on offspring. In this paper we review studies investigating the effects of fructose intake on metabolic outcomes in both mother and offspring using human and experimental studies. PMID:24864200

  15. Adverse drug reactions in older patients during hospitalisation: are they predictable?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Connor, Marie N

    2012-11-01

    adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are a major cause of morbidity and healthcare utilisation in older people. The GerontoNet ADR risk score aims to identify older people at risk of ADRs during hospitalisation. We aimed to assess the clinical applicability of this score and identify other variables that predict ADRs in hospitalised older people.

  16. An exemplar-familiarity model predicts short-term and long-term probe recognition across diverse forms of memory search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosofsky, Robert M; Cox, Gregory E; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M

    2014-11-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across diverse conditions that manipulated relations between targets and foils across trials. Subjects saw lists of from 1 to 16 items followed by a single item recognition probe. In a varied-mapping condition, targets and foils could switch roles across trials; in a consistent-mapping condition, targets and foils never switched roles; and in an all-new condition, on each trial a completely new set of items formed the memory set. In the varied-mapping and all-new conditions, mean correct response times (RTs) and error proportions were curvilinear increasing functions of memory set size, with the RT results closely resembling ones from hybrid visual-memory search experiments reported by Wolfe (2012). In the consistent-mapping condition, new-probe RTs were invariant with set size, whereas old-probe RTs increased slightly with increasing study-test lag. With appropriate choice of psychologically interpretable free parameters, the model accounted well for the complete set of results. The work provides support for the hypothesis that a common set of processes involving exemplar-based familiarity may govern long-term and short-term probe recognition across wide varieties of memory- search conditions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  17. Pitch Sequence Complexity and Long-Term Pitcher Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel R. Bock

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Winning one or two games during a Major League Baseball (MLB season is often the difference between a team advancing to post-season play, or “waiting until next year”. Technology advances have made it feasible to augment historical data with in-game contextual data to provide managers immediate insights regarding an opponent’s next move, thereby providing a competitive edge. We developed statistical models of pitcher behavior using pitch sequences thrown during three recent MLB seasons (2011–2013. The purpose of these models was to predict the next pitch type, for each pitcher, based on data available at the immediate moment, in each at-bat. Independent models were developed for each player’s most frequent four pitches. The overall predictability of next pitch type is 74:5%. Additional analyses on pitcher predictability within specific game situations are discussed. Finally, using linear regression analysis, we show that an index of pitch sequence predictability may be used to project player performance in terms of Earned Run Average (ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP over a longer term. On a restricted range of the independent variable, reducing complexity in selection of pitches is correlated with higher values of both FIP and ERA for the players represented in the sample. Both models were significant at the α = 0.05 level (ERA: p = 0.022; FIP: p = 0.0114. With further development, such models may reduce risk faced by management in evaluation of potential trades, or to scouts assessing unproven emerging talent. Pitchers themselves might benefit from awareness of their individual statistical tendencies, and adapt their behavior on the mound accordingly. To our knowledge, the predictive model relating pitch-wise complexity and long-term performance appears to be novel.

  18. ADRA2B deletion variant selectively predicts stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory in females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoladz, Phillip R; Kalchik, Andrea E; Hoffman, Mackenzie M; Aufdenkampe, Rachael L; Lyle, Sarah M; Peters, David M; Brown, Callie M; Cadle, Chelsea E; Scharf, Amanda R; Dailey, Alison M; Wolters, Nicholas E; Talbot, Jeffery N; Rorabaugh, Boyd R

    2014-10-01

    Clarifying the mechanisms that underlie stress-induced alterations of learning and memory may lend important insight into susceptibility factors governing the development of stress-related psychological disorders, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous work has shown that carriers of the ADRA2B Glu(301)-Glu(303) deletion variant exhibit enhanced emotional memory, greater amygdala responses to emotional stimuli and greater intrusiveness of traumatic memories. We speculated that carriers of this deletion variant might also be more vulnerable to stress-induced enhancements of long-term memory, which would implicate the variant as a possible susceptibility factor for traumatic memory formation. One hundred and twenty participants (72 males, 48 females) submerged their hand in ice cold (stress) or warm (no stress) water for 3min. Immediately afterwards, they studied a list of 42 words varying in emotional valence and arousal and then completed an immediate free recall test. Twenty-four hours later, participants' memory for the word list was examined via free recall and recognition assessments. Stressed participants exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor had enhanced recall on the 24-h assessment. Importantly, this enhancement was independent of the emotional nature of the learned information. In contrast to previous work, we did not observe a general enhancement of memory for emotional information in ADRA2B deletion carriers. However, stressed female ADRA2B deletion carriers, particularly those exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor, did demonstrate greater recognition memory than all other groups. Collectively, these findings implicate autonomic mechanisms in the pre-learning stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory and suggest that the ADRA2B deletion variant may selectively predict stress effects on memory in females. Such findings lend important insight into the physiological mechanisms underlying stress

  19. Toxicities Associated with Cisplatin-Based Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in Long-Term Testicular Cancer Survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunkit Fung

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Testicular cancer has become the paradigm of adult-onset cancer survivorship, due to the young age at diagnosis and 10-year relative survival of 95%. This clinical review presents the current status of various treatment-related complications experienced by long-term testicular cancer survivors (TCS free of disease for 5 or more years after primary treatment. Cardiovascular disease and second malignant neoplasms represent the most common potentially life-threatening late effects. Other long-term adverse outcomes include neuro- and ototoxicity, pulmonary complications, nephrotoxicity, hypogonadism, infertility, and avascular necrosis. Future research efforts should focus on delineation of the genetic underpinning of these long-term toxicities to understand their biologic basis and etiopathogenetic pathways, with the goal of developing targeted prevention and intervention strategies to optimize risk-based care and minimize chronic morbidities. In the interim, health care providers should advise TCS to adhere to national guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease risk factors, as well as to adopt behaviors consistent with a healthy lifestyle, including smoking cessation, a balanced diet, and a moderate to vigorous intensity exercise program. TCS should also follow national guidelines for cancer screening as currently applied to the general population.

  20. Toxicities Associated with Cisplatin-Based Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in Long-Term Testicular Cancer Survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinh, Paul; Ardeshir-Rouhani-Fard, Shirin; Fossa, Sophie D.; Travis, Lois B.

    2018-01-01

    Testicular cancer has become the paradigm of adult-onset cancer survivorship, due to the young age at diagnosis and 10-year relative survival of 95%. This clinical review presents the current status of various treatment-related complications experienced by long-term testicular cancer survivors (TCS) free of disease for 5 or more years after primary treatment. Cardiovascular disease and second malignant neoplasms represent the most common potentially life-threatening late effects. Other long-term adverse outcomes include neuro- and ototoxicity, pulmonary complications, nephrotoxicity, hypogonadism, infertility, and avascular necrosis. Future research efforts should focus on delineation of the genetic underpinning of these long-term toxicities to understand their biologic basis and etiopathogenetic pathways, with the goal of developing targeted prevention and intervention strategies to optimize risk-based care and minimize chronic morbidities. In the interim, health care providers should advise TCS to adhere to national guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease risk factors, as well as to adopt behaviors consistent with a healthy lifestyle, including smoking cessation, a balanced diet, and a moderate to vigorous intensity exercise program. TCS should also follow national guidelines for cancer screening as currently applied to the general population. PMID:29670654

  1. Sexuality and Physical Intimacy in Long Term Care: Sexuality, long term care, capacity assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Lichtenberg, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Sexuality and sexual needs in older adults remains a neglected area of clinical intervention, particularly so in long term care settings. Because older adults in medical rehabilitation and long term care beds present with significant frailties, and often significant neurocognitive disorders it makes it difficult for occupational therapists and other staff to evaluate the capacity of an older adult resident to participate in sexual relationships. The current paper reviews the current literatur...

  2. Pre-operative Carotid Plaque Echolucency Assessment has no Predictive Value for Long-Term Risk of Stroke or Cardiovascular Death in Patients Undergoing Carotid Endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Waard, D; de Borst, G J; Bulbulia, R; Pan, H; Halliday, A

    2017-08-01

    In patients with carotid stenosis receiving medical treatment, carotid plaque echolucency has been thought to predict risk of future stroke and of other cardiovascular events. This study evaluated the prognostic value of pre-operative plaque echolucency for future stroke and cardiovascular death in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy in the first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-1). In ACST-1, 1832/3120 patients underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA), of whom 894 had visual echolucency assessment according to the Gray-Weale classification. During follow-up patients were monitored both for peri-procedural (i.e. within 30 days) death, stroke, or MI, and for long-term risk of stroke or cardiovascular death. Unconditional maximum likelihood estimation was used to calculate odds ratios of peri-procedural risk and Kaplan-Meier statistics with log-rank test were used to compare cumulative long-term risks. Of 894 operated patients in whom echolucency was assessed, 458 plaques (51%) were rated as echolucent and peri-procedural risk of death/stroke/MI in these patients was non-significantly higher when compared with patients with non-echolucent plaques (OR 1.48 [95% CI 0.76-2.88], p = .241). No differences were found in the 10 year risk of any stroke (30/447 [11.6%] vs. 29/433 [11.0%], p = .900) or cardiovascular (non-stroke) death (85/447 [27.9%] vs. 93/433 [32.1%], p = .301). In ACST-1, carotid plaque echolucency assessment in patients undergoing CEA offered no predictive value with regard to peri-operative or long-term stroke risk or of cardiovascular (non-stroke) death. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Differences in health status between long-term and short-term benzodiazepine users.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zandstra, S.M.; Furer, J.W.; Lisdonk, E.H. van de; Bor, J.H.J.; Zitman, F.G.; Weel, C. van

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite generally accepted advice to keep treatment short, benzodiazepines are often prescibed for more than six months. Prevention of long-term benzodiazepine use could be facilitated by the utilisation of risk indicators for long-term use. However, the characteristics of long-term

  4. The geoforecasting approach and long-term prediction of evolutive nuclide migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peaudecerf, P.; D'Alessandro, M.; Canceill, M.; Fourniquet, J.; Godefroy, P.

    1985-01-01

    Safety analysis of long-lived radioactive waste repositories is dependent on natural site evolution scenarios. This is a complex problem given that there may be a large number of interdependent factors whose occurrence probability is usually very difficult to quantify. A major methodological effort has therefore been undertaken in this field under the terms of the Community's R and D programme. Research teams from the JRC and the BRGM tackled the problems by way of two complementary approaches; A critical analysis of existing methods was also undertaken at the request of the Commission. This paper sets out to summarize the work and, as far as possible, make a methodological evaluation

  5. Rising Long-term Interest Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallett, Andrew Hughes

    Rather than chronicle recent developments in European long-term interest rates as such, this paper assesses the impact of increases in those interest rates on economic performance and inflation. That puts us in a position to evaluate the economic pressures for further rises in those rates......, the first question posed in this assignment, and the scope for overshooting (the second question), and then make some illustrative predictions of future interest rates in the euro area. We find a wide range of effects from rising interest rates, mostly small and mostly negative, focused on investment...... till the emerging European recovery is on a firmer basis and capable of overcoming increases in the cost of borrowing and shrinking fiscal space. There is also an implication that worries about rising/overshooting interest rates often reflect the fact that inflation risks are unequally distributed...

  6. Plaque Structural Stress Estimations Improve Prediction of Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events After Intracoronary Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Adam J; Teng, Zhongzhao; Calvert, Patrick A; Rajani, Nikil K; Hennessy, Orla; Nerlekar, Nitesh; Obaid, Daniel R; Costopoulos, Charis; Huang, Yuan; Hoole, Stephen P; Goddard, Martin; West, Nick E J; Gillard, Jonathan H; Bennett, Martin R

    2016-06-01

    Although plaque rupture is responsible for most myocardial infarctions, few high-risk plaques identified by intracoronary imaging actually result in future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Nonimaging markers of individual plaque behavior are therefore required. Rupture occurs when plaque structural stress (PSS) exceeds material strength. We therefore assessed whether PSS could predict future MACE in high-risk nonculprit lesions identified on virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. Baseline nonculprit lesion features associated with MACE during long-term follow-up (median: 1115 days) were determined in 170 patients undergoing 3-vessel virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. MACE was associated with plaque burden ≥70% (hazard ratio: 8.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-30.6; P<0.001) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (hazard ratio: 6.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-20.1; P=0.036), although absolute event rates for high-risk lesions remained <10%. PSS derived from virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound was subsequently estimated in nonculprit lesions responsible for MACE (n=22) versus matched control lesions (n=22). PSS showed marked heterogeneity across and between similar lesions but was significantly increased in MACE lesions at high-risk regions, including plaque burden ≥70% (13.9±11.5 versus 10.2±4.7; P<0.001) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (14.0±8.9 versus 11.6±4.5; P=0.02). Furthermore, PSS improved the ability of virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound to predict MACE in plaques with plaque burden ≥70% (adjusted log-rank, P=0.003) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (P=0.002). Plaques responsible for MACE had larger superficial calcium inclusions, which acted to increase PSS (P<0.05). Baseline PSS is increased in plaques responsible for MACE and improves the ability of intracoronary imaging to predict events. Biomechanical modeling may complement plaque imaging for risk stratification of coronary nonculprit lesions. © 2016

  7. The long-term stock market valuation of customer satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Aksoy, Lerzan

    2008-01-01

    Firm valuation has been an important domain of interest for finance. However, most financial models do not include customer-related metrics in this process. Studies in marketing have found that one particular customer metric, customer satisfaction, improves the ability to predict future cash flows, long-term financial measures, stock performance, and shareholder value. However, most of these studies predominantly employ models that are not directly used in finance practice. This article exten...

  8. Barrier analogs: Long-term performance issues, preliminary studies, and recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waugh, W.J. [Rust Geotech, Inc., Grand Junction, CO (United States). Environmental Sciences Lab.; Chatters, J.C.; Last, G.V.; Bjornstad, B.N.; Link, S.O. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Hunter, C.R. [Cascade Earth Sciences, La Grande, OR (United States)

    1994-02-01

    The US Department of Energy`s Hanford Protective Barrier Development Program is funding studies of natural analogs of the long-term performance of waste site covers. Natural-analog studies examine past environments as evidence for projecting the future performance of engineered structures. The information generated by analog studies is needed to (1) evaluate the designs and results of short term experiments and demonstrations, (2) formulate performance-modeling problems that bound expected changes in waste site environments, and (3) understand emergent system attributes that cannot be evaluated with short-term experiments or computer models. Waste site covers will be part of dynamic environmental systems with attributes that transcend the traits of engineered components. This report discusses results of the previously unreported preliminary studies conducted in 1983 and 1984. These results indicate that analogs could play an important role in predicting the long-term behavior of engineered waste covers. Layered exposures of glacial-flood-deposited gravels mantled with silt or sand that resemble contemporary barrier designs were examined. Bergmounds, another anomaly left by cataclysmic glacial floods, were also examined as analogs of surface gravel.

  9. The Development of Long-Term Adverse Health Effects in Oil Spill Cleanup Workers of the Deepwater Horizon Offshore Drilling Rig Disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Andrea, Mark A; Reddy, G Kesava

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the long-term adverse health effects of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Gulf oil spill exposure in workers who participated in its cleanup work. Medical charts of both the oil spill exposed and unexposed subjects were reviewed. The changes in the white blood cells, platelets, hemoglobin, hematocrit, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), aspartate amino transferase (AST), alanine amino transferase (ALT) levels, as well as their pulmonary and cardiac functions were evaluated. Medical records from 88 subjects (oil spill cleanup workers, n  = 44 and unexposed, n  = 44) were reviewed during initial and 7 years follow up visits after the disaster occurred. Compared with the unexposed subjects, oil spill exposed subjects had significantly reduced platelet counts (×10 3 /µL) at their initial (254.1 ± 46.7 versus 289.7 ± 63.7, P  = 0.000) and follow-up (242.9 ± 55.6 versus 278.4 ± 67.6, P  = 0.000) visits compared with the unexposed subjects (254.6 ± 51.9 versus 289.7 ± 63.7, P  = 0.008). The hemoglobin and hematocrit levels were increased significantly both at their initial and follow-up visits in the oil spill exposed subjects compared to the unexposed subjects. Similarly, the oil spill exposed subjects had significantly increased ALP, AST, and ALT levels at their initial and follow-up visits compared with those of the unexposed subjects. Illness symptoms that were reported during their initial visit still persisted at their 7-year follow-up visit. Notably, at their 7-year follow-up visit, most of the oil spill exposed subjects had also developed chronic rhinosinusitis and reactive airway dysfunction syndrome as new symptoms that were not reported during their initial visit. Additionally, more abnormalities in pulmonary and cardiac functions were also seen in the oil spill exposed subjects. This long-term follow-up study demonstrates that those people involved

  10. Effects of Long-Term Representations on Free Recall of Unrelated Words

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katkov, Mikhail; Romani, Sandro; Tsodyks, Misha

    2015-01-01

    Human memory stores vast amounts of information. Yet recalling this information is often challenging when specific cues are lacking. Here we consider an associative model of retrieval where each recalled item triggers the recall of the next item based on the similarity between their long-term neuronal representations. The model predicts that…

  11. Anomaly Detection for Temporal Data using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)

    OpenAIRE

    Singh, Akash

    2017-01-01

    We explore the use of Long short-term memory (LSTM) for anomaly detection in temporal data. Due to the challenges in obtaining labeled anomaly datasets, an unsupervised approach is employed. We train recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with LSTM units to learn the normal time series patterns and predict future values. The resulting prediction errors are modeled to give anomaly scores. We investigate different ways of maintaining LSTM state, and the effect of using a fixed number of time steps on...

  12. Very long-term sequelae of craniopharyngioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Mark; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; Catsman-Berrevoets, Coriene E; Michiels, Erna M C; van Veelen-Vincent, Marie-Lise C; Dallenga, Alof H G; van den Berge, J Herbert; van Rij, Carolien M; van der Lely, Aart-Jan; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

    2017-06-01

    Studies investigating long-term health conditions in patients with craniopharyngioma are limited by short follow-up durations and generally do not compare long-term health effects according to initial craniopharyngioma treatment approach. In addition, studies comparing long-term health conditions between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma report conflicting results. The objective of this study was to analyse a full spectrum of long-term health effects in patients with craniopharyngioma according to initial treatment approach and age group at craniopharyngioma presentation. Cross-sectional study based on retrospective data. We studied a single-centre cohort of 128 patients with craniopharyngioma treated from 1980 onwards (63 patients with childhood-onset disease). Median follow-up since craniopharyngioma presentation was 13 years (interquartile range: 5-23 years). Initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches included gross total resection ( n  = 25), subtotal resection without radiotherapy ( n  = 44), subtotal resection with radiotherapy ( n  = 25), cyst aspiration without radiotherapy ( n  = 8), and 90 Yttrium brachytherapy ( n  = 21). Pituitary hormone deficiencies (98%), visual disturbances (75%) and obesity (56%) were the most common long-term health conditions observed. Different initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches resulted in similar long-term health effects. Patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma experienced significantly more growth hormone deficiency, diabetes insipidus, panhypopituitarism, morbid obesity, epilepsy and psychiatric conditions compared with patients with adult-onset disease. Recurrence-/progression-free survival was significantly lower after initial craniopharyngioma treatment with cyst aspiration compared with other therapeutic approaches. Survival was similar between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma. Long-term health conditions were comparable after

  13. Long-term prisoner in prison isolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karolina Grudzińska

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Long-term prisoner belongs to a particular category of people who are imprisoned in prisons. On the one hand in this group are often heavily demoralized people who committed the most serious crimes, on the other hand it is a group of prisoners, who should be well thought out and programmed the impact of rehabilitation. The situation of man trapped for years poses in a complicated situation not only the prisoners, but also the entire prison staff. They have to take care of the fact that the prison isolation did not cause the state in which convicts form itself in learned helplessness and lack of skills for self-planning and decision-making. In addition, planning the rehabilitation impact of long-term prisoners should not be forgotten that these prisoners in the short or the long term will return to the libertarian environment therefore, should prevent any negative effects of long-term imprisonment. This article presents the main issues related to the execution of imprisonment against long-term prisoners. It is an attempt to systematize the knowledge of this category of people living in prison isolation.

  14. Investigation of Loop Seal Clearing Phenomena for the ATLAS SBLOCA Long Term Cooling Test using TRACE and MARS-KS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Min Jeong; Park, M. H.; Marigomen Ralph; Sim, S. K. [Environment and Energy Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    During Design Certificate(DC) review of the APR1400, USNRC raised a long term cooling safety issue on the effect of loop seal clearing during cold leg Small Break Loss Of Coolant Accident(SBLOCA) due to relatively deep cross-over loop compared to the US PWRs. The objective of this study is thus to investigate the loop seal clearing phenomena during cold leg slot break SBLOCA long term cooling and resolve the safety issue on the SBLOCA long term cooling related to the APR1400 DC. TRACE and MARS-KS were used to predict the test results and to perform sensitivity studies for the SBLOCA loop seal clearing phenomena. The calculation shows that the TRACE code well predict the sequence of Test LTC-CL-04R. However, compared to the experiment, the TRACE over predicts the primary pressure due to smaller break flow prediction. MARS-KS well predicts major thermal hydraulic parameters during the transient with reasonable agreement. MARS-KS better predicts ATLAS LTC-CL-04R test data with a good agreement than the TRACE due to better prediction of the break flow. Overall, compared to the experiment, the TRACE and MARS-KS Codes show a discrepancy in predicting the loop seal clearing and reformation time. Both TRACE and MARS-KS correctly predicts core water level and fuel cladding temperatures. From this study, it can be said that even though APR1400 cross-over leg design has slightly deeper loop seals, the effect on the safety of the SBLOCA long term cooling is minimal compared to the SBLOCA cladding failure criteria. Further study on the SBLOCA loop seal clearing phenomena is needed.

  15. Nonverbal behavior observation : collaborative gaming method for prediction of conflicts during long-term missions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voynarovskaya, N.; Gorbunov, R.D.; Barakova, E.I.; Ahn, R.M.C.; Rauterberg, G.W.M.; Yang, H.S.; et al., xx

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a method for monitoring mental state of small isolated crews during long-term missions (such as space mission, polar expeditions, submarine crews, meteorological stations, and etc). It combines the records of negotiation game with monitoring of the nonverbal behavior of the

  16. Long-term air pollution exposure and cardio- respiratory mortality: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoek, Gerard; Krishnan, Ranjini M; Beelen, Rob; Peters, Annette; Ostro, Bart; Brunekreef, Bert; Kaufman, Joel D

    2013-05-28

    Current day concentrations of ambient air pollution have been associated with a range of adverse health effects, particularly mortality and morbidity due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. In this review, we summarize the evidence from epidemiological studies on long-term exposure to fine and coarse particles, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and elemental carbon on mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease. We also summarize the findings on potentially susceptible subgroups across studies. We identified studies through a search in the databases Medline and Scopus and previous reviews until January 2013 and performed a meta-analysis if more than five studies were available for the same exposure metric.

  17. Future Directions in Childhood Adversity and Youth Psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Katie A

    2016-01-01

    Despite long-standing interest in the influence of adverse early experiences on mental health, systematic scientific inquiry into childhood adversity and developmental outcomes has emerged only recently. Existing research has amply demonstrated that exposure to childhood adversity is associated with elevated risk for multiple forms of youth psychopathology. In contrast, knowledge of developmental mechanisms linking childhood adversity to the onset of psychopathology-and whether those mechanisms are general or specific to particular kinds of adversity-remains cursory. Greater understanding of these pathways and identification of protective factors that buffer children from developmental disruptions following exposure to adversity is essential to guide the development of interventions to prevent the onset of psychopathology following adverse childhood experiences. This article provides recommendations for future research in this area. In particular, use of a consistent definition of childhood adversity, integration of studies of typical development with those focused on childhood adversity, and identification of distinct dimensions of environmental experience that differentially influence development are required to uncover mechanisms that explain how childhood adversity is associated with numerous psychopathology outcomes (i.e., multifinality) and identify moderators that shape divergent trajectories following adverse childhood experiences. A transdiagnostic model that highlights disruptions in emotional processing and poor executive functioning as key mechanisms linking childhood adversity with multiple forms of psychopathology is presented as a starting point in this endeavour. Distinguishing between general and specific mechanisms linking childhood adversity with psychopathology is needed to generate empirically informed interventions to prevent the long-term consequences of adverse early environments on children's development.

  18. ADVERPred-Web Service for Prediction of Adverse Effects of Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, Sergey M; Lagunin, Alexey A; Rudik, Anastasia V; Filimonov, Dmitry A; Poroikov, Vladimir V

    2018-01-22

    Application of structure-activity relationships (SARs) for the prediction of adverse effects of drugs (ADEs) has been reported in many published studies. Training sets for the creation of SAR models are usually based on drug label information which allows for the generation of data sets for many hundreds of drugs. Since many ADEs may not be related to drug consumption, one of the main problems in such studies is the quality of data on drug-ADE pairs obtained from labels. The information on ADEs may be included in three sections of the drug labels: "Boxed warning," "Warnings and Precautions," and "Adverse reactions." The first two sections, especially Boxed warning, usually contain the most frequent and severe ADEs that have either known or probable relationships to drug consumption. Using this information, we have created manually curated data sets for the five most frequent and severe ADEs: myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, cardiac failure, severe hepatotoxicity, and nephrotoxicity, with more than 850 drugs on average for each effect. The corresponding SARs were built with PASS (Prediction of Activity Spectra for Substances) software and had balanced accuracy values of 0.74, 0.7, 0.77, 0.67, and 0.75, respectively. They were implemented in a freely available ADVERPred web service ( http://www.way2drug.com/adverpred/ ), which enables a user to predict five ADEs based on the structural formula of compound. This web service can be applied for estimation of the corresponding ADEs for hits and lead compounds at the early stages of drug discovery.

  19. Merging of long-term memories in an insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Kathryn L; Chittka, Lars

    2015-03-16

    Research on comparative cognition has largely focused on successes and failures of animals to solve certain cognitive tasks, but in humans, memory errors can be more complex than simple failures to retrieve information [1, 2]. The existence of various types of "false memories," in which individuals remember events that they have never actually encountered, are now well established in humans [3, 4]. We hypothesize that such systematic memory errors may be widespread in animals whose natural lifestyle involves the processing and recollection of memories for multiple stimuli [5]. We predict that memory traces for various stimuli may "merge," such that features acquired in distinct bouts of training are combined in an animal's mind, so that stimuli that have never been viewed before, but are a combination of the features presented in training, may be chosen during recall. We tested this using bumblebees, Bombus terrestris. When individuals were first trained to a solid single-colored stimulus followed by a black and white (b/w)-patterned stimulus, a subsequent preference for the last entrained stimulus was found in both short-term- and long-term-memory tests. However, when bees were first trained to b/w-patterned stimuli followed by solid single-colored stimuli and were tested in long-term-memory tests 1 or 3 days later, they only initially preferred the most recently rewarded stimulus, and then switched their preference to stimuli that combined features from the previous color and pattern stimuli. The observed merging of long-term memories is thus similar to the memory conjunction error found in humans [6]. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Competitive short-term and long-term memory processes in spatial habituation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, David J; Bannerman, David M

    2011-04-01

    Exposure to a spatial location leads to habituation of exploration such that, in a novelty preference test, rodents subsequently prefer exploring a novel location to the familiar location. According to Wagner's (1981) theory of memory, short-term and long-term habituation are caused by separate and sometimes opponent processes. In the present study, this dual-process account of memory was tested. Mice received a series of exposure training trials to a location before receiving a novelty preference test. The novelty preference was greater when tested after a short, rather than a long, interval. In contrast, the novelty preference was weaker when exposure training trials were separated by a short, rather than a long interval. Furthermore, it was found that long-term habituation was determined by the independent effects of the amount of exposure training and the number of exposure training trials when factors such as the intertrial interval and the cumulative intertrial interval were controlled. A final experiment demonstrated that a long-term reduction of exploration could be caused by a negative priming effect due to associations formed during exploration. These results provide evidence against a single-process account of habituation and suggest that spatial habituation is determined by both short-term, recency-based memory and long-term, incrementally strengthened memory.

  1. Long-term logistic analysis of FBR introduction strategy: avoiding both uranium and plutonium shortage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, T.

    1995-01-01

    Despite comfortable predictions on short to mid-term uranium resources, there is still a concern about long-term availability of competitive uranium resources. In order to achieve substantial uranium saving, early introduction of Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) is desirable. But it is also known that rapid introduction of FBR could result in plutonium storage. Will there be enough plutonium on a global scale to sustain fast FBR growth? is there any other way to save uranium resource? This paper concludes that multi-option strategies to achieve flexible long-term strategy to avoid both uranium and plutonium storage are desirable. (authors)

  2. Can preventable adverse events be predicted among hospitalized older patients? The development and validation of a predictive model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeg, L. van de; Langelaan, M.; Wagner, C.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To develop and validate a predictive model for preventable adverse events (AEs) in hospitalized older patients, using clinically important risk factors that are readily available on admission. Design: Data from two retrospective patient record review studies on AEs were used. Risk factors

  3. Detection of delirium and its symptoms by nurses working in a long term care facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voyer, Philippe; Richard, Sylvie; McCusker, Jane; Cole, Martin G; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Belzile, Eric

    2012-03-01

    To investigate the ability of nurses to recognize delirium and its symptoms and to investigate the factors associated with undetected delirium. A prospective, observational study with repeated measurements over a 6-month period. Seven long term care settings in Montreal and Quebec City, Canada. Residents aged 65 and older, with or without dementia, admitted to long term care (not respite care) and able to communicate in English or French. Delirium and its symptoms were assessed using the Confusion Assessment Method. Ratings of delirium by nurses based on their observations during routine care were compared with delirium ratings by trained research assistants based on a one-time formal structured evaluation (Confusion Assessment Method and Mini Mental State Examination). This procedure was repeated for 10 delirium symptoms. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. The method of generalized estimating equations was used to identify factors associated with undetected delirium. Research assistants identified delirium in 43 (21.3%) of the 202 residents. Nurses identified delirium in 51% of the cases identified by the research assistants. However, for cases without delirium according to the research assistants, nurses identified 90% of them correctly. Detection rates for delirium symptoms ranged from 25% to 66.7%. Undetected delirium was associated with lower number of depressive symptoms manifested by the resident. Detection of delirium is a major issue for nurses. Strategies to improve nurse recognition of delirium could well reduce adverse outcomes for this vulnerable population. Copyright © 2012 American Medical Directors Association, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Long term liquidity analysis of the firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Gonos

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity control is a very difficult and important function. If the business is not liquid in the long term, it is under threatof bankruptcy, and on the other hand surplus of the cash in hand threaten its future efficiency, because the cash in hand is a sourceof only limited profitability. Long term liquidity is related to the ability of the short term and long term liabilities payment. Articleis trying to point out to the monitoring and analyzing of the long term liquidity in the concrete business, in this case the printing industrycompany. Hereby at the end of the article mentioned monitored and analyzed liquidity is evaluated in the five years time period.

  5. Long-Term Outcome of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in Korean Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Mi Ri; Choi, Won Ah; Choi, Young-Chul; Lee, Jang Woo; Hong, Jung Hwa; Park, Jihyun; Kang, Seong-Woong

    2017-12-01

    To report the latest long-term outcome of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and to analyze the predictors of prognosis. Subjects who were diagnosed with ALS between January 2005 and December 2009 at a single institute were followed up until death or up to December 2014. Data regarding age, sex, date of onset, date of diagnosis, presence of bulbar symptoms on onset, date of initiation of non-invasive ventilation (NIV), and the date of tracheostomy were collected. Survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate analyses of the risk of death were performed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Among 212 suspicious subjects, definite ALS was diagnosed in 182 subjects. The survival rate at 3 and 5 years from onset was 61.5% and 40.1%, respectively, and the survival rate at 3 and 5 years post-diagnosis was 49.5% and 24.2%, respectively. Further, 134 patients (134/182, 73.6%) were initiated on NIV, and among them, 90 patients (90/182, 49.5%) underwent tracheostomy. Male gender and onset age of ≥65 years were independent predictors of adverse survival. The analysis of long term survival in ALS showed excellent outcomes considering the overall poor prognosis of this disease.

  6. Long-term cryogenic space storage system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, R. A.; Chronic, W. L.

    1973-01-01

    Discussion of the design, fabrication and testing of a 225-cu ft spherical cryogenic storage system for long-term subcritical applications under zero-g conditions in storing subcritical cryogens for space vehicle propulsion systems. The insulation system design, the analytical methods used, and the correlation between the performance test results and analytical predictions are described. The best available multilayer insulation materials and state-of-the-art thermal protection concepts were applied in the design, providing a boiloff rate of 0.152 lb/hr, or 0.032% per day, and an overall heat flux of 0.066 Btu/sq ft hr based on a 200 sq ft surface area. A six to eighteen month cryogenic storage is provided by this system for space applications.

  7. Close Friends’ Psychopathology as a Pathway from Early Adversity to Young Adulthood Depressive Symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raposa, Elizabeth; Hammen, Constance; Brennan, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Objective Past research has highlighted the negative impact of early adverse experiences on childhood social functioning, including friendship selection, and later mental health. The current study explored the long-term effects of early adversity on young adults’ close friends’ psychological symptoms, and the impact of these close friendships on later depressive symptoms. Method A prospective longitudinal design was used to examine 816 youth from a large community-based sample, who were followed from birth through age 25. Participants’ mothers provided contemporaneous information about adversity exposure prior to age 5, and participants completed questionnaires about their own depressive symptoms at age 20 and in their early 20’s. Youth also nominated a best friend to complete questionnaires about their own psychopathology at age 20. Results Individuals who experienced more early adversity by age 5 had best friends with higher rates of psychopathology at age 20. Moreover, best friends’ psychopathology predicted target youth depressive symptoms two to five years later. Conclusions Results indicate that early adversity continues to affect social functioning throughout young adulthood, and that best friendships marked by elevated psychopathology in turn negatively affect mental health. Findings have implications for clinical interventions designed to prevent the development of depressive symptoms in youth who have been exposed to early adversity. PMID:24871609

  8. [Predictors of long-term remission after transsphenoidal surgery in Cushing's disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellán Galiana, Pablo; Fajardo Montañana, Carmen; Riesgo Suárez, Pedro Antonio; Gómez Vela, José; Escrivá, Carlos Meseguer; Lillo, Vicente Rovira

    2013-10-01

    There is no consensus on the remission criteria for Cushing's disease or on the definition of disease recurrence after transsphenoidal surgery, and comparison of the different published series is therefore difficult. A long-term recurrence rate of Cushing's disease ranging from 2%-25% has been reported. Predictors of long-term remission reported include: 1) adenoma-related factors (aggressiveness, size, preoperative identification in MRI), 2) surgery-related factors, mainly neurosurgeon experience, 3) clinical factors, of which dependence on and duration of glucocorticoid treatment are most important, and 4) biochemical factors. Among the latter, low postoperative cortisol levels, less than 2 mcg/dL predict for disease remission. However, even when undetectable plasma cortisol levels are present, long-term recurrence may still occur and lifetime follow-up is required. We report the preliminary results of the first 20 patients with Cushing's disease operated on at our hospital using nadir cortisol levels less than 2 mcg/dl as remission criterion. Copyright © 2012 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.