WorldWideScience

Sample records for predictive validity evidence

  1. The predictive validity of selection for entry into postgraduate training in general practice: evidence from three longitudinal studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Fiona; Lievens, Filip; Kerrin, Máire; Munro, Neil; Irish, Bill

    2013-11-01

    The selection methodology for UK general practice is designed to accommodate several thousand applicants per year and targets six core attributes identified in a multi-method job-analysis study To evaluate the predictive validity of selection methods for entry into postgraduate training, comprising a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. A three-part longitudinal predictive validity study of selection into training for UK general practice. In sample 1, participants were junior doctors applying for training in general practice (n = 6824). In sample 2, participants were GP registrars 1 year into training (n = 196). In sample 3, participants were GP registrars sitting the licensing examination after 3 years, at the end of training (n = 2292). The outcome measures include: assessor ratings of performance in a selection centre comprising job simulation exercises (sample 1); supervisor ratings of trainee job performance 1 year into training (sample 2); and licensing examination results, including an applied knowledge examination and a 12-station clinical skills objective structured clinical examination (OSCE; sample 3). Performance ratings at selection predicted subsequent supervisor ratings of job performance 1 year later. Selection results also significantly predicted performance on both the clinical skills OSCE and applied knowledge examination for licensing at the end of training. In combination, these longitudinal findings provide good evidence of the predictive validity of the selection methods, and are the first reported for entry into postgraduate training. Results show that the best predictor of work performance and training outcomes is a combination of a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. Implications for selection methods for all postgraduate specialties are considered.

  2. GMAT versus Alternatives: Predictive Validity Evidence from Central Europe and the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koys, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    The author found that the GPA at the end of the MBA program is most accurately predicted by the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) and the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL). MBA GPA is also predicted, though less accurately, by the Scholastic Level Exam, a mathematics test, undergraduate GPA, and previous career progression. If…

  3. Escala de atitudes frente ao uso de drogas: evidências de validade fatorial e preditiva Attitudes toward drugs use scale: evidences of factor and predictive validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdiney V. Gouveia

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: O presente estudo teve como objetivo conhecer evidências de validade fatorial e preditiva de uma medida de atitudes ante o uso de drogas em geral (EAAUD. MÉTODO: Participaram voluntariamente 276 estudantes universitários de vários cursos, provenientes de uma universidade pública (94,2% e outra particular (5,8% da cidade de João Pessoa (PB. Estes tinham idade média de 21 anos (DP = 3,40; 93,5% eram de jovens de 17 a 25 anos, a maioria solteira (91% e do sexo feminino (65,6%. Além de um conjunto de perguntas demográficas, os participantes preencheram a EAAUD. Esta compreende uma medida formada por quatro itens/adjetivos bipolares (positivo/negativo, gosto/desgosto, bom/ruim e desejável/indesejável respondidos em escala do tipo diferencial semântico, de 9 pontos, variando de - 4 a + 4. RESULTADOS: De acordo com a análise de componentes principais, um único componente emergiu, com todos os itens apresentando saturação acima de |0,40|; este teve valor próprio de 3,17, explicando 79,3% da variância total. Sua consistência interna (alfa de Cronbach foi de 0,91. Por meio de regressão logística, comprovou-se que as pontuações na EAAUD predisseram significativamente a condição de ser um usuário de drogas, B = 0,17, Wald (1 = 8,45, p = 0,004. CONCLUSÃO: Tais resultados indicam que esta medida reúne evidências de validade fatorial e preditiva, podendo ser empregada para conhecer o potencial envolvimento dos jovens com drogas. Não obstante, sugerem-se novas pesquisas com amostras maiores e mais diversificadas.OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at knowing evidences of factor and predictive validity of a measure of attitudes toward drugs use (ATDUS. METHODS: Participants were 276 volunteer undergraduate students of several courses. They were of a public (94.2% and other private (5.8% university from João Pessoa city (Paraíba, with mean age of 21 years old (SD = 3.40; 93.5% were youths, with age ranging from 17 to 25. Most of

  4. RBANS memory percentage retention: No evidence of incremental validity beyond RBANS scores for diagnostic classification of mild cognitive impairment and dementia and for prediction of daily function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jodouin, Kara A; O'Connell, Megan E; Morgan, Debra G

    2017-01-01

    RBANS percentage retention scores may be useful for diagnosis, but their incremental validity is unclear. Percentage retention versus RBANS immediate and delayed memory subtests and delayed index scores were compared for diagnostic classification and for prediction of function. Data from 173 memory clinic patients with an interdisciplinary diagnosis (no cognitive impairment, amnestic mild cognitive impairment [aMCI], and dementia due to Alzheimer's disease [AD]) and complete RBANS data were analyzed. Across diagnostic contrasts, list percentage retention classification accuracy was similar to List Learning delayed recall, but below the Delayed Memory Index (DMI). Similarly, for classifying no cognitive impairment versus aMCI or dementia due to AD, story percentage retention was similar to Story Memory subtests and below the DMI. For classifying aMCI versus AD; however, Story Memory exceeded the DMI, but was similar to Story Memory subtest scores. Similarly, for prediction of function percentage retention measures did not predict variance beyond that predicted by the RBANS subtest or index scores. In sum, there is no evidence that calculation of percentage retention for RBANS adds clinical utility beyond those provided by the standard RBANS scores.

  5. Validity evidence based on test content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireci, Stephen; Faulkner-Bond, Molly

    2014-01-01

    Validity evidence based on test content is one of the five forms of validity evidence stipulated in the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing developed by the American Educational Research Association, American Psychological Association, and National Council on Measurement in Education. In this paper, we describe the logic and theory underlying such evidence and describe traditional and modern methods for gathering and analyzing content validity data. A comprehensive review of the literature and of the aforementioned Standards is presented. For educational tests and other assessments targeting knowledge and skill possessed by examinees, validity evidence based on test content is necessary for building a validity argument to support the use of a test for a particular purpose. By following the methods described in this article, practitioners have a wide arsenal of tools available for determining how well the content of an assessment is congruent with and appropriate for the specific testing purposes.

  6. Verification, validation, and reliability of predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1987-04-01

    The objective of predicting long-term performance should be to make reliable determinations of whether the prediction falls within the criteria for acceptable performance. Establishing reliable predictions of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis on valid theories to predict performance. The validation process must establish the validity of the theory, the parameters used in applying the theory, the arithmetic of calculations, and the interpretation of results; but validation of such performance predictions is not possible unless there are clear criteria for acceptable performance. Validation programs should emphasize identification of the substantive issues of prediction that need to be resolved. Examples relevant to waste package performance are predicting the life of waste containers and the time distribution of container failures, establishing the criteria for defining container failure, validating theories for time-dependent waste dissolution that depend on details of the repository environment, and determining the extent of congruent dissolution of radionuclides in the UO 2 matrix of spent fuel. Prediction and validation should go hand in hand and should be done and reviewed frequently, as essential tools for the programs to design and develop repositories. 29 refs

  7. Traits across the personality hierarchy differentially relate to positive and negative affect: Evidence for the predictive validity of empirically derived meta-traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hengartner, Michael P; Graf, Markus; Schreiber, Marc

    2017-05-01

    There is increasing interest in the construct validity of higher-order domains of the Big Five personality traits. A total of 831 persons from the Swiss population completed the International Personality Item Pool and an adaptation of the Positive and Negative Affect Scales. Using Goldberg's bass-ackwards method, we found evidence for the general factor of personality (GFP) and the two meta-traits of positive emotionality (blend of low neuroticism and high extraversion) and constraint (blend of high agreeableness and conscientiousness). In association with positive affect, the explanatory power of the GFP (r = 0.43) and positive emotionality (r = 0.37) was largely superior to extraversion (r = 0.24), conscientiousness (r = 0.18), agreeableness (r = 0.09) and openness (r = 0.04), although not neuroticism (r = -0.34). In association with negative affect, neuroticism (r = 0.41), the GFP (r = -0.36) and positive emotionality (r = -0.35) were the most powerful single predictors. We conclude that the higher-order structure of personality is best explained by the meta-traits of positive emotionality and constraint, which correspond closely to the well-established superfactors of internalizing and externalizing. We further demonstrate that these have substantial criterion validity when broad positive and negative affect is the outcome of interest. These findings help to relate Big Five meta-traits to pathological personality. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Evidence of Construct Validity for Work Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuty, Melanie E.; Hansen, Jo-Ida C.

    2011-01-01

    Despite the importance of work values in the process of career adjustment (Dawis, 2002), little empirical research has focused on articulating the domains represented within the construct of work values and the examination of evidence of validity for the construct has been limited. Furthermore, the larger number of work values measures has made it…

  9. The Predictive Validity of Projective Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suinn, Richard M.; Oskamp, Stuart

    Written for use by clinical practitioners as well as psychological researchers, this book surveys recent literature (1950-1965) on projective test validity by reviewing and critically evaluating studies which shed light on what may reliably be predicted from projective test results. Two major instruments are covered: the Rorschach and the Thematic…

  10. Predictive validity of the Slovene Matura

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Bucik

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available Passing Matura is the last step of the secondary school graduation, but it is also the entrance ticket for the university. Besides, the summary score of Matura exam takes part in the selection process for the particular university studies in case of 'numerus clausus'. In discussing either aim of Matura important dilemmas arise, namely, is the Matura examination sufficiently exact and rightful procedure to, firstly, use its results for settling starting studying conditions and, secondly, to select validly, reliably and sensibly the best candidates for university studies. There are some questions concerning predictive validity of Matura that should be answered, e.g. (i does Matura as an enrollment procedure add to the qualitaty of the study; (ii is it a better selection tool than entrance examinations formerly used in different faculties in the case of 'numerus clausus'; and (iii is it reasonable to expect high predictive validity of Matura results for success at the university at all. Recent results show that in the last few years the dropout-rate is lower than before, the pass-rate between the first and the second year is higher and the average duration of study per student is shorter. It is clear, however, that it is not possible to simply predict the study success from the Matura results. There are too many factors influencing the success in the university studies. In most examined study programs the correlation between Matura results and study success is positive but moderate, therefore it can not be said categorically that only candidates accepted according to the Matura results are (or will be the best students. Yet it has been shown that Matura is a standardized procedure, comparable across different candidates entering university, and that – when compared entrance examinations – it is more objective, reliable, and hen ce more valid and fair a procedure. In addition, comparable procedures of university recruiting and selection can be

  11. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  12. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  13. Gene prediction validation and functional analysis of redundant pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderkær, Mads

    2011-01-01

    have employed a large mRNA-seq data set to improve and validate ab initio predicted gene models. This direct experimental evidence also provides reliable determinations of UTR regions and polyadenylation sites, which are not easily predicted in plants. Furthermore, once an annotated genome sequence...... is available, gene expression by mRNA-Seq enables acquisition of a more complete overview of gene isoform usage in complex enzymatic pathways enabling the identification of key genes. Metabolism in potatoes This information is useful e.g. for crop improvement based on manipulation of agronomically important...

  14. Critical evidence for the prediction error theory in associative learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terao, Kanta; Matsumoto, Yukihisa; Mizunami, Makoto

    2015-03-10

    In associative learning in mammals, it is widely accepted that the discrepancy, or error, between actual and predicted reward determines whether learning occurs. Complete evidence for the prediction error theory, however, has not been obtained in any learning systems: Prediction error theory stems from the finding of a blocking phenomenon, but blocking can also be accounted for by other theories, such as the attentional theory. We demonstrated blocking in classical conditioning in crickets and obtained evidence to reject the attentional theory. To obtain further evidence supporting the prediction error theory and rejecting alternative theories, we constructed a neural model to match the prediction error theory, by modifying our previous model of learning in crickets, and we tested a prediction from the model: the model predicts that pharmacological intervention of octopaminergic transmission during appetitive conditioning impairs learning but not formation of reward prediction itself, and it thus predicts no learning in subsequent training. We observed such an "auto-blocking", which could be accounted for by the prediction error theory but not by other competitive theories to account for blocking. This study unambiguously demonstrates validity of the prediction error theory in associative learning.

  15. The predictive validity of safety climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephen E

    2007-01-01

    Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group

  16. CFD Validation Studies for Hypersonic Flow Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnoffo, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    A series of experiments to measure pressure and heating for code validation involving hypersonic, laminar, separated flows was conducted at the Calspan-University at Buffalo Research Center (CUBRC) in the Large Energy National Shock (LENS) tunnel. The experimental data serves as a focus for a code validation session but are not available to the authors until the conclusion of this session. The first set of experiments considered here involve Mach 9.5 and Mach 11.3 N2 flow over a hollow cylinder-flare with 30 degree flare angle at several Reynolds numbers sustaining laminar, separated flow. Truncated and extended flare configurations are considered. The second set of experiments, at similar conditions, involves flow over a sharp, double cone with fore-cone angle of 25 degrees and aft-cone angle of 55 degrees. Both sets of experiments involve 30 degree compressions. Location of the separation point in the numerical simulation is extremely sensitive to the level of grid refinement in the numerical predictions. The numerical simulations also show a significant influence of Reynolds number on extent of separation. Flow unsteadiness was easily introduced into the double cone simulations using aggressive relaxation parameters that normally promote convergence.

  17. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  18. Investigating Postgraduate College Admission Interviews: Generalizability Theory Reliability and Incremental Predictive Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges

    2007-01-01

    The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…

  19. Evaluating the Predictive Validity of Graduate Management Admission Test Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireci, Stephen G.; Talento-Miller, Eileen

    2006-01-01

    Admissions data and first-year grade point average (GPA) data from 11 graduate management schools were analyzed to evaluate the predictive validity of Graduate Management Admission Test[R] (GMAT[R]) scores and the extent to which predictive validity held across sex and race/ethnicity. The results indicated GMAT verbal and quantitative scores had…

  20. The Predictive Validity of Teacher Candidate Letters of Reference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Richard W.; Schroeder, Mark P.

    2014-01-01

    Letters of reference are widely used as an essential part of the hiring process of newly licensed teachers. While the predictive validity of these letters of reference has been called into question it has never been empirically studied. The current study examined the predictive validity of the quality of letters of reference for forty-one student…

  1. The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

    2018-03-01

    This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

  2. Test-Retest Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Implicit Association Test in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rae, James R.; Olson, Kristina R.

    2018-01-01

    The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many…

  3. 20 CFR 219.33 - Evidence of a deemed valid marriage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Evidence of a deemed valid marriage. 219.33... EVIDENCE REQUIRED FOR PAYMENT Evidence of Relationship § 219.33 Evidence of a deemed valid marriage. (a) Preferred evidence. Preferred evidence of a deemed valid marriage is— (1) Evidence of a ceremonial marriage...

  4. Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daan Nieboer

    Full Text Available External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting.We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1 the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2 the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury.The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples. Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2.The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

  5. Predictive Validity of a Student Self-Report Screener of Behavioral and Emotional Risk in an Urban High School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Erin; Harrell-Williams, Leigh; Dever, Bridget V.; Furlong, Michael J.; Moore, Stephanie; Raines, Tara; Kamphaus, Randy W.

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, schools are implementing school-based screening for risk of behavioral and emotional problems; hence, foundational evidence supporting the predictive validity of screening instruments is important to assess. This study examined the predictive validity of the Behavior Assessment System for Children-2 Behavioral and Emotional Screening…

  6. Extending Validity Evidence for Multidimensional Measures of Coaching Competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Nicholas D.; Wolfe, Edward W.; Maier, Kimberly S.; Feltz, Deborah L.; Reckase, Mark D.

    2006-01-01

    This study extended validity evidence for multidimensional measures of coaching competency derived from the Coaching Competency Scale (CCS; Myers, Feltz, Maier, Wolfe, & Reckase, 2006) by examining use of the original rating scale structure and testing how measures related to satisfaction with the head coach within teams and between teams.…

  7. Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...

  8. Literature evidence in open targets - a target validation platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafkas, Şenay; Dunham, Ian; McEntyre, Johanna

    2017-06-06

    We present the Europe PMC literature component of Open Targets - a target validation platform that integrates various evidence to aid drug target identification and validation. The component identifies target-disease associations in documents and ranks the documents based on their confidence from the Europe PMC literature database, by using rules utilising expert-provided heuristic information. The confidence score of a given document represents how valuable the document is in the scope of target validation for a given target-disease association by taking into account the credibility of the association based on the properties of the text. The component serves the platform regularly with the up-to-date data since December, 2015. Currently, there are a total number of 1168365 distinct target-disease associations text mined from >26 million PubMed abstracts and >1.2 million Open Access full text articles. Our comparative analyses on the current available evidence data in the platform revealed that 850179 of these associations are exclusively identified by literature mining. This component helps the platform's users by providing the most relevant literature hits for a given target and disease. The text mining evidence along with the other types of evidence can be explored visually through https://www.targetvalidation.org and all the evidence data is available for download in json format from https://www.targetvalidation.org/downloads/data .

  9. 20 CFR 404.727 - Evidence of a deemed valid marriage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Evidence of a deemed valid marriage. 404.727... DISABILITY INSURANCE (1950- ) Evidence Evidence of Age, Marriage, and Death § 404.727 Evidence of a deemed valid marriage. (a) General. A deemed valid marriage is a ceremonial marriage we consider valid even...

  10. Evidence of Validity of the Job Crafting Behaviors Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Silva de Carvalho Chinelato

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available AbstractJob crafting behavior refers to the changes made by workers in their job context for adjusting their activities to their preferences. We sought to adapt and collect validity evidences of the Job Crafting Behaviors Scale for the Brazilian context, in a sample of 491 workers, with a mean age of 26.7 years. Factor analysis revealed that the final instrument consisted of three dimensions (increasing structural job resources, increasing social job resources, increasing challenging job demands, which showed good internal consistency indexes. These dimensions showed low or moderate correlations with work engagement, positive psychological capital, positive job affect, and in-role performance. The scale showed evidence of validity, the use of which is recommended for future research on the changes that people make in their jobs.

  11. Predicting and validating protein interactions using network structure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pao-Yang Chen

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Protein interactions play a vital part in the function of a cell. As experimental techniques for detection and validation of protein interactions are time consuming, there is a need for computational methods for this task. Protein interactions appear to form a network with a relatively high degree of local clustering. In this paper we exploit this clustering by suggesting a score based on triplets of observed protein interactions. The score utilises both protein characteristics and network properties. Our score based on triplets is shown to complement existing techniques for predicting protein interactions, outperforming them on data sets which display a high degree of clustering. The predicted interactions score highly against test measures for accuracy. Compared to a similar score derived from pairwise interactions only, the triplet score displays higher sensitivity and specificity. By looking at specific examples, we show how an experimental set of interactions can be enriched and validated. As part of this work we also examine the effect of different prior databases upon the accuracy of prediction and find that the interactions from the same kingdom give better results than from across kingdoms, suggesting that there may be fundamental differences between the networks. These results all emphasize that network structure is important and helps in the accurate prediction of protein interactions. The protein interaction data set and the program used in our analysis, and a list of predictions and validations, are available at http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/bioinfo/resources/PredictingInteractions.

  12. Predictive Validity And Usefulness Of Visual Scanning Task In Hiv ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The visual scanning task is a useful screening tool for brain damage in HIV/AIDS by inference from impairment of visual information processing and disturbances in perceptual mental strategies. There is progressive neuro-cognitive decline as the disease worsens. Keywords: brain, cognition, HIV/AIDS, predictive validity, ...

  13. A robust approach to QMU, validation, and conservative prediction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Segalman, Daniel Joseph; Paez, Thomas Lee; Bauman, Lara E

    2013-01-01

    A systematic approach to defining margin in a manner that incorporates statistical information and accommodates data uncertainty, but does not require assumptions about specific forms of the tails of distributions is developed. This approach extends to calculations underlying validation assessment and quantitatively conservative predictions.

  14. Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a

  15. Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  16. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  17. Predictive validity of the Biomedical Admissions Test: an evaluation and case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, I C; Ferguson, Eamonn; Wakeford, Richard; Powis, David; James, David

    2011-01-01

    There has been an increase in the use of pre-admission selection tests for medicine. Such tests need to show good psychometric properties. Here, we use a paper by Emery and Bell [2009. The predictive validity of the Biomedical Admissions Test for pre-clinical examination performance. Med Educ 43:557-564] as a case study to evaluate and comment on the reporting of psychometric data in the field of medical student selection (and the comments apply to many papers in the field). We highlight pitfalls when reliability data are not presented, how simple zero-order associations can lead to inaccurate conclusions about the predictive validity of a test, and how biases need to be explored and reported. We show with BMAT that it is the knowledge part of the test which does all the predictive work. We show that without evidence of incremental validity it is difficult to assess the value of any selection tests for medicine.

  18. Evidence Based Validation of Indian Traditional Medicine – Way Forward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pulok K Mukherjee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Evidence based validation of the ethno-pharmacological claims on traditional medicine (TM is the need of the day for its globalization and reinforcement. Combining the unique features of identifying biomarkers that are highly conserved across species, this can offer an innovative approach to biomarker-driven drug discovery and development. TMs are an integral component of alternative health care systems. India has a rich wealth of TMs and the potential to accept the challenge to meet the global demand for them. Ayurveda, Yoga, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy (AYUSH medicine are the major healthcare systems in Indian Traditional Medicine. The plant species mentioned in the ancient texts of these systems may be explored with the modern scientific approaches for better leads in the healthcare. TM is the best sources of chemical diversity for finding new drugs and leads. Authentication and scientific validation of medicinal plant is a fundamental requirement of industry and other organizations dealing with herbal drugs. Quality control (QC of botanicals, validated processes of manufacturing, customer awareness and post marketing surveillance are the key points, which could ensure the quality, safety and efficacy of TM. For globalization of TM, there is a need for harmonization with respect to its chemical and metabolite profiling, standardization, QC, scientific validation, documentation and regulatory aspects of TM. Therefore, the utmost attention is necessary for the promotion and development of TM through global collaboration and co-ordination by national and international programme.

  19. 20 CFR 404.725 - Evidence of a valid ceremonial marriage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Evidence of a valid ceremonial marriage. 404... DISABILITY INSURANCE (1950- ) Evidence Evidence of Age, Marriage, and Death § 404.725 Evidence of a valid ceremonial marriage. (a) General. A valid ceremonial marriage is one that follows procedures set by law in...

  20. Validating spatiotemporal predictions of an important pest of small grains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Scott C; Holtzer, Thomas O; Peairs, Frank B; Lester, Philip J

    2015-01-01

    Arthropod pests are typically managed using tactics applied uniformly to the whole field. Precision pest management applies tactics under the assumption that within-field pest pressure differences exist. This approach allows for more precise and judicious use of scouting resources and management tactics. For example, a portion of a field delineated as attractive to pests may be selected to receive extra monitoring attention. Likely because of the high variability in pest dynamics, little attention has been given to developing precision pest prediction models. Here, multimodel synthesis was used to develop a spatiotemporal model predicting the density of a key pest of wheat, the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov). Spatially implicit and spatially explicit models were synthesized to generate spatiotemporal pest pressure predictions. Cross-validation and field validation were used to confirm model efficacy. A strong within-field signal depicting aphid density was confirmed with low prediction errors. Results show that the within-field model predictions will provide higher-quality information than would be provided by traditional field scouting. With improvements to the broad-scale model component, the model synthesis approach and resulting tool could improve pest management strategy and provide a template for the development of spatially explicit pest pressure models. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  1. Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Ryan Donald; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Greg J; Mahar, Matthew T

    2015-08-01

    Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74-0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg⁻¹,min⁻¹ to 8.27 ml·kg⁻¹.min⁻¹. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31-0.62; Agreement = 75.5-89.9%; F = 0.08-0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones.

  2. Validating Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) predictive capability using perturbed capsules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Mark; Magelssen, Glenn; Tregillis, Ian; Hsu, Scott; Bradley, Paul; Dodd, Evan; Cobble, James; Flippo, Kirk; Offerman, Dustin; Obrey, Kimberly; Wang, Yi-Ming; Watt, Robert; Wilke, Mark; Wysocki, Frederick; Batha, Steven

    2009-11-01

    Achieving ignition on NIF is a monumental step on the path toward utilizing fusion as a controlled energy source. Obtaining robust ignition requires accurate ICF models to predict the degradation of ignition caused by heterogeneities in capsule construction and irradiation. LANL has embarked on a project to induce controlled defects in capsules to validate our ability to predict their effects on fusion burn. These efforts include the validation of feature-driven hydrodynamics and mix in a convergent geometry. This capability is needed to determine the performance of capsules imploded under less-than-optimum conditions on future IFE facilities. LANL's recently initiated Defect Implosion Experiments (DIME) conducted at Rochester's Omega facility are providing input for these efforts. Recent simulation and experimental results will be shown.

  3. The Predictive Validity of the ABFM's In-Training Examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Thomas R; Li, Zijia; Peabody, Michael R; Lybarger, Melanie; Royal, Kenneth; Puffer, James C

    2015-05-01

    Our objective was to examine the predictive validity of the American Board of Family Medicine's (ABFM) In-Training Examination (ITE) with regard to predicting outcomes on the ABFM certification examination. This study used a repeated measures design across three levels of medical training (PGY1--PGY2, PGY2--PGY3, and PGY3--initial certification) with three different cohorts (2010--2011, 2011--2012, and 2012--2013) to examine: (1) how well the residents' ITE scores correlated with their test scores in the following year, (2) what the typical score increase was across training years, and (3) what was the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the PGY3 scores with regard to predicting future results on the MC-FP Examination. ITE scores generally correlate at about .7 with the following year's ITE or with the following year's certification examination. The mean growth from PGY1 to PGY2 was 52 points, from PGY2 to PGY3 was 34 points, and from PGY3 to initial certification was 27 points. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were .91, .47, .96, and .27, respectively. The ITE is a useful predictor of future ITE and initial certification examination performance.

  4. Test-retest reliability and predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rae, James R; Olson, Kristina R

    2018-02-01

    The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many factors simultaneously (lag-time between testing administrations, domain, etc.), it is difficult to discern what factors may explain variability in existing test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates. Across five studies (total N = 519; ages 6- to 11-years-old), we manipulated two factors that have varied in previous developmental research-lag-time and domain. An internal meta-analysis of these studies revealed that, across three different methods of analyzing the data, mean test-retest (rs of .48, .38, and .34) and predictive validity (rs of .46, .20, and .10) effect sizes were significantly greater than zero. While lag-time did not moderate the magnitude of test-retest coefficients, whether we observed domain differences in test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates was contingent on other factors, such as how we scored the IAT or whether we included estimates from a unique sample (i.e., a sample containing gender typical and gender diverse children). Recommendations are made for developmental researchers that utilize the IAT in their research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Testing the Predictive Validity and Construct of Pathological Video Game Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Christopher L.; Gentile, Douglas; Tapscott, Ryan L.; Lynch, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    Three studies assessed the construct of pathological video game use and tested its predictive validity. Replicating previous research, Study 1 produced evidence of convergent validity in 8th and 9th graders (N = 607) classified as pathological gamers. Study 2 replicated and extended the findings of Study 1 with college undergraduates (N = 504). Predictive validity was established in Study 3 by measuring cue reactivity to video games in college undergraduates (N = 254), such that pathological gamers were more emotionally reactive to and provided higher subjective appraisals of video games than non-pathological gamers and non-gamers. The three studies converged to show that pathological video game use seems similar to other addictions in its patterns of correlations with other constructs. Conceptual and definitional aspects of Internet Gaming Disorder are discussed. PMID:26694472

  6. Job Embeddedness Demonstrates Incremental Validity When Predicting Turnover Intentions for Australian University Employees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heritage, Brody; Gilbert, Jessica M.; Roberts, Lynne D.

    2016-01-01

    Job embeddedness is a construct that describes the manner in which employees can be enmeshed in their jobs, reducing their turnover intentions. Recent questions regarding the properties of quantitative job embeddedness measures, and their predictive utility, have been raised. Our study compared two competing reflective measures of job embeddedness, examining their convergent, criterion, and incremental validity, as a means of addressing these questions. Cross-sectional quantitative data from 246 Australian university employees (146 academic; 100 professional) was gathered. Our findings indicated that the two compared measures of job embeddedness were convergent when total scale scores were examined. Additionally, job embeddedness was capable of demonstrating criterion and incremental validity, predicting unique variance in turnover intention. However, this finding was not readily apparent with one of the compared job embeddedness measures, which demonstrated comparatively weaker evidence of validity. We discuss the theoretical and applied implications of these findings, noting that job embeddedness has a complementary place among established determinants of turnover intention. PMID:27199817

  7. Testing the Predictive Validity and Construct of Pathological Video Game Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L. Groves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Three studies assessed the construct of pathological video game use and tested its predictive validity. Replicating previous research, Study 1 produced evidence of convergent validity in 8th and 9th graders (N = 607 classified as pathological gamers. Study 2 replicated and extended the findings of Study 1 with college undergraduates (N = 504. Predictive validity was established in Study 3 by measuring cue reactivity to video games in college undergraduates (N = 254, such that pathological gamers were more emotionally reactive to and provided higher subjective appraisals of video games than non-pathological gamers and non-gamers. The three studies converged to show that pathological video game use seems similar to other addictions in its patterns of correlations with other constructs. Conceptual and definitional aspects of Internet Gaming Disorder are discussed.

  8. Validating evidence based decision making in health care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nüssler, Emil Karl; Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Håkonsson, Dorthe Døjbak

    Surgeons who perform prolapse surgeries face the dilemma of choosing to use mesh, with its assumed benefits, and the risks associated with mesh. In this paper, we examine whether decisions to use mesh is evidence based. Based on data of 30,398 patients from the Swedish National Quality Register o...... are highly influenced by the geographical placement of surgeons. Therfore, decisions to use mesh are boundedly rationality, rather than rational.......Surgeons who perform prolapse surgeries face the dilemma of choosing to use mesh, with its assumed benefits, and the risks associated with mesh. In this paper, we examine whether decisions to use mesh is evidence based. Based on data of 30,398 patients from the Swedish National Quality Register...... of Gynecological Surgery we examine factors related to decisions to use mesh. Our results indicate that decisions to use mesh are not evidence based, and cannot be explained neither by FDA safety communications, nor by medical conditions usually assumed to predict its usage. Instead, decisions to use mesh...

  9. Slip Validation and Prediction for Mars Exploration Rovers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng Yen

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel technique to validate and predict the rover slips on Martian surface for NASA’s Mars Exploration Rover mission (MER. Different from the traditional approach, the proposed method uses the actual velocity profile of the wheels and the digital elevation map (DEM from the stereo images of the terrain to formulate the equations of motion. The six wheel speed from the empirical encoder data comprises the vehicle's velocity, and the rover motion can be estimated using mixed differential and algebraic equations. Applying the discretization operator to these equations, the full kinematics state of the rover is then resolved by the configuration kinematics solution in the Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP. This method, with the proper wheel slip and sliding factors, produces accurate simulation of the Mars Exploration rovers, which have been validated with the earth-testing vehicle. This computational technique has been deployed to the operation of the MER rovers in the extended mission period. Particularly, it yields high quality prediction of the rover motion on high slope areas. The simulated path of the rovers has been validated using the telemetry from the onboard Visual Odometry (VisOdom. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed simulation is very effective in planning the path of the rovers on the high-slope areas.

  10. Individualized prediction of perineural invasion in colorectal cancer: development and validation of a radiomics prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanqi; He, Lan; Dong, Di; Yang, Caiyun; Liang, Cuishan; Chen, Xin; Ma, Zelan; Huang, Xiaomei; Yao, Su; Liang, Changhong; Tian, Jie; Liu, Zaiyi

    2018-02-01

    To develop and validate a radiomics prediction model for individualized prediction of perineural invasion (PNI) in colorectal cancer (CRC). After computed tomography (CT) radiomics features extraction, a radiomics signature was constructed in derivation cohort (346 CRC patients). A prediction model was developed to integrate the radiomics signature and clinical candidate predictors [age, sex, tumor location, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level]. Apparent prediction performance was assessed. After internal validation, independent temporal validation (separate from the cohort used to build the model) was then conducted in 217 CRC patients. The final model was converted to an easy-to-use nomogram. The developed radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature and CEA level showed good calibration and discrimination performance [Harrell's concordance index (c-index): 0.817; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.811-0.823]. Application of the nomogram in validation cohort gave a comparable calibration and discrimination (c-index: 0.803; 95% CI: 0.794-0.812). Integrating the radiomics signature and CEA level into a radiomics prediction model enables easy and effective risk assessment of PNI in CRC. This stratification of patients according to their PNI status may provide a basis for individualized auxiliary treatment.

  11. Preventing patient absenteeism: validation of a predictive overbooking model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Mark W; Cohen, Samuel; Wang, Hank; Kaung, Aung; Patel, Anish; Tashjian, Vartan; Williams, Demetrius L; Martinez, Bibiana; Spiegel, Brennan M R

    2015-12-01

    To develop a model that identifies patients at high risk for missing scheduled appointments ("no-shows" and cancellations) and to project the impact of predictive overbooking in a gastrointestinal endoscopy clinic-an exemplar resource-intensive environment with a high no-show rate. We retrospectively developed an algorithm that uses electronic health record (EHR) data to identify patients who do not show up to their appointments. Next, we prospectively validated the algorithm at a Veterans Administration healthcare network clinic. We constructed a multivariable logistic regression model that assigned a no-show risk score optimized by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Based on these scores, we created a calendar of projected open slots to offer to patients and compared the daily performance of predictive overbooking with fixed overbooking and typical "1 patient, 1 slot" scheduling. Data from 1392 patients identified several predictors of no-show, including previous absenteeism, comorbid disease burden, and current diagnoses of mood and substance use disorders. The model correctly classified most patients during the development (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.80) and validation phases (AUC = 0.75). Prospective testing in 1197 patients found that predictive overbooking averaged 0.51 unused appointments per day versus 6.18 for typical booking (difference = -5.67; 95% CI, -6.48 to -4.87; P < .0001). Predictive overbooking could have increased service utilization from 62% to 97% of capacity, with only rare clinic overflows. Information from EHRs can accurately predict whether patients will no-show. This method can be used to overbook appointments, thereby maximizing service utilization while staying within clinic capacity.

  12. Predicting risk behaviors: development and validation of a diagnostic scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, K; Cameron, K A; McKeon, J K; Berkowitz, J M

    1996-01-01

    The goal of this study was to develop and validate the Risk Behavior Diagnosis (RBD) Scale for use by health care providers and practitioners interested in promoting healthy behaviors. Theoretically guided by the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM; a fear appeal theory), the RBD scale was designed to work in conjunction with an easy-to-use formula to determine which types of health risk messages would be most appropriate for a given individual or audience. Because some health risk messages promote behavior change and others backfire, this type of scale offers guidance to practitioners on how to develop the best persuasive message possible to motivate healthy behaviors. The results of the study demonstrate the RBD scale to have a high degree of content, construct, and predictive validity. Specific examples and practical suggestions are offered to facilitate use of the scale for health practitioners.

  13. Discrete fracture modelling for the Stripa tracer validation experiment predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, W.; Wallmann, P.

    1992-02-01

    Groundwater flow and transport through three-dimensional networks of discrete fractures was modeled to predict the recovery of tracer from tracer injection experiments conducted during phase 3 of the Stripa site characterization and validation protect. Predictions were made on the basis of an updated version of the site scale discrete fracture conceptual model used for flow predictions and preliminary transport modelling. In this model, individual fractures were treated as stochastic features described by probability distributions of geometric and hydrologic properties. Fractures were divided into three populations: Fractures in fracture zones near the drift, non-fracture zone fractures within 31 m of the drift, and fractures in fracture zones over 31 meters from the drift axis. Fractures outside fracture zones are not modelled beyond 31 meters from the drift axis. Transport predictions were produced using the FracMan discrete fracture modelling package for each of five tracer experiments. Output was produced in the seven formats specified by the Stripa task force on fracture flow modelling. (au)

  14. The Prediction of Training Proficiency in Firefighters: A Study of Predictive Validity in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo Berges

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study provides results of criterion validity in the selection of firefighters in Spain. The predictors were cognitive skills, job knowledge, and physical aptitudes, and the criterion was training proficiency. The process involves 639 candidates, but only 44 complete successfully the selection process. Our results support previous evidence showing that general cognitive ability is the best predictor of training proficiency, with an operational validity of .57. With respect to the other predictors, job knowledge presented an operational validity of .55 and physical tests of .49. In addition, multiple regression analysis showed that cognitive aptitude explains 33% of the variance, but when physical aptitudes are included the explained variance increases to 50%. If we also add job knowledge, explained variance increases to 55%. Our study offers recent results of criterion validity in a barely investigated job, gathered in a country other than the one where prior research had been carried out.

  15. Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim evan Emmerik

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.

  16. External validation of the Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) to predict conversion from laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Alan Shiun Yew; Donohue, Peter O'; Gunnarsson, Ronny K; de Costa, Alan

    2018-03-14

    Valid and user-friendly prediction models for conversion to open cholecystectomy allow for proper planning prior to surgery. The Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) has been in use clinically in the original study site for the past three years, but has not been tested at other sites. A retrospective, single-centred study collected ultrasonic measurements and clinical variables alongside with conversion status from consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy from 2013 to 2016 in The Townsville Hospital, North Queensland, Australia. An area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to externally validate of the CPM. Conversion was necessary in 43 (4.2%) out of 1035 patients. External validation showed an area under the curve of 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.93, p = 1.1 × 10 -14 ). In comparison with most previously published models, which have an AUC of approximately 0.80 or less, the CPM has the highest AUC of all published prediction models both for internal and external validation. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Disentangling the Predictive Validity of High School Grades for Academic Success in University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vulperhorst, Jonne; Lutz, Christel; de Kleijn, Renske; van Tartwijk, Jan

    2018-01-01

    To refine selective admission models, we investigate which measure of prior achievement has the best predictive validity for academic success in university. We compare the predictive validity of three core high school subjects to the predictive validity of high school grade point average (GPA) for academic achievement in a liberal arts university…

  18. Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

    2017-11-01

    Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Site characterization and validation. Stage 2 - Preliminary predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, O.; Black, J.H.; Gale, J.E.; Holmes, D.C.

    1989-05-01

    The Site Characterization and Validation (SCV) project is designed to assess how well we can characterize a volume of rock prior to using it as a repository. The programme of work focuses on the validation of the techniques used in site characterization. The SCV project contains 5 stages of work arranged in two 'cycles' of data-gathering, prediction, and validation. The first stage of work has included drilling of 6 boreholes (N2, N3, N4, W1, W2 and V3) and measurements of geology, fracture characteristics, stess, single borehole geophysical logging, radar, seismics and hydrogeology. The rock at the SCV site is granite with small lithological variations. Based essentially on radar and seismic results 5 'fracture zones' have been identified, named GA, GB, GC, GH and GI. They all extend acroos the entire SCV site. They aer basically in in two groups (GA, GB, GC and GH, GI). The first group are aligned N40 degree E with a dip of 35 degree to the south. The second group are aligned approximately N10 degree W dipping 60 degree E. From the stochastic analysis of the joint data it was possible to identify three main fracture orientation clusters. The orientation of two of these clusters agree roughly with orientation of the main features. Cluster B has roughly the same orientation as GH and GI, while features GA, GB and GC have an orientation similar to the more loosely defined cluster C. The orientation of the third cluster (A) is northwest with a dip to northeast. It is found that 94% of all measured hydraulic transmissivity is accounted for by 4% of the tested rock, not all of this 'concentrated' transmissivity is with the major features defined by geophysics. When the hydraulic connections across the site are examied they show that there are several welldefined zones which permit rapid transmission of hydraulic signals. These are essentially from the northeast to the southwest. (66 figs., 21 tabs., 33 refs.)

  20. Prediction of Protein–Protein Interactions by Evidence Combining Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Wei Chang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Most cellular functions involve proteins’ features based on their physical interactions with other partner proteins. Sketching a map of protein–protein interactions (PPIs is therefore an important inception step towards understanding the basics of cell functions. Several experimental techniques operating in vivo or in vitro have made significant contributions to screening a large number of protein interaction partners, especially high-throughput experimental methods. However, computational approaches for PPI predication supported by rapid accumulation of data generated from experimental techniques, 3D structure definitions, and genome sequencing have boosted the map sketching of PPIs. In this review, we shed light on in silico PPI prediction methods that integrate evidence from multiple sources, including evolutionary relationship, function annotation, sequence/structure features, network topology and text mining. These methods are developed for integration of multi-dimensional evidence, for designing the strategies to predict novel interactions, and for making the results consistent with the increase of prediction coverage and accuracy.

  1. Validation of an Acoustic Impedance Prediction Model for Skewed Resonators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howerton, Brian M.; Parrott, Tony L.

    2009-01-01

    An impedance prediction model was validated experimentally to determine the composite impedance of a series of high-aspect ratio slot resonators incorporating channel skew and sharp bends. Such structures are useful for packaging acoustic liners into constrained spaces for turbofan noise control applications. A formulation of the Zwikker-Kosten Transmission Line (ZKTL) model, incorporating the Richards correction for rectangular channels, is used to calculate the composite normalized impedance of a series of six multi-slot resonator arrays with constant channel length. Experimentally, acoustic data was acquired in the NASA Langley Normal Incidence Tube over the frequency range of 500 to 3500 Hz at 120 and 140 dB OASPL. Normalized impedance was reduced using the Two-Microphone Method for the various combinations of channel skew and sharp 90o and 180o bends. Results show that the presence of skew and/or sharp bends does not significantly alter the impedance of a slot resonator as compared to a straight resonator of the same total channel length. ZKTL predicts the impedance of such resonators very well over the frequency range of interest. The model can be used to design arrays of slot resonators that can be packaged into complex geometries heretofore unsuitable for effective acoustic treatment.

  2. Eating Disorder Diagnostic Scale: Additional Evidence of Reliability and Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Fisher, Melissa; Martinez, Erin

    2004-01-01

    The authors conducted 4 studies investigating the reliability and validity of the Eating Disorder Diagnostic Scale (HDDS; E. Stice, C. F. Telch, & S. L. Rizvi, 2000), a brief self-report measure for diagnosing anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, and binge eating disorder. Study 1 found that the HDDS showed criterion validity with interview-based…

  3. External validation of the NUn score for predicting anastomotic leakage after oesophageal resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paireder, Matthias; Jomrich, Gerd; Asari, Reza; Kristo, Ivan; Gleiss, Andreas; Preusser, Matthias; Schoppmann, Sebastian F

    2017-08-29

    Early detection of anastomotic leakage (AL) after oesophageal resection for malignancy is crucial. This retrospective study validates a risk score, predicting AL, which includes C-reactive protein, albumin and white cell count in patients undergoing oesophageal resection between 2003 and 2014. For validation of the NUn score a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is estimated. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) is reported with 95% confidence interval (CI). Among 258 patients (79.5% male) 32 patients showed signs of anastomotic leakage (12.4%). NUn score in our data has a median of 9.3 (range 6.2-17.6). The odds ratio for AL was 1.31 (CI 1.03-1.67; p = 0.028). AUC for AL was 0.59 (CI 0.47-0.72). Using the original cutoff value of 10, the sensitivity was 45.2% an the specificity was 73.8%. This results in a positive predictive value of 19.4% and a negative predictive value of 90.6%. The proportion of variation in AL occurrence, which is explained by the NUn score, was 2.5% (PEV = 0.025). This study provides evidence for an external validation of a simple risk score for AL after oesophageal resection. In this cohort, the NUn score is not useful due to its poor discrimination.

  4. Developing and Validating a Predictive Model for Stroke Progression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.E. Craig

    2011-12-01

    discrimination and calibration of the predictive model appear sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice.

  5. Developing and validating a predictive model for stroke progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, L E; Wu, O; Gilmour, H; Barber, M; Langhorne, P

    2011-01-01

    sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice.

  6. Developing and Validating a Predictive Model for Stroke Progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, L.E.; Wu, O.; Gilmour, H.; Barber, M.; Langhorne, P.

    2011-01-01

    calibration of the predictive model appear sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice. PMID:22566988

  7. Comorbidity predicts poor prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Development and validation of a predictive score model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Rui; Chen, Xiao-Zhong; Chen, Lei; Jiang, Feng; Tang, Ling-Long; Mao, Yan-Ping; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Li, Wen-Fei; Liu, Li-Zhi; Tian, Li; Lin, Ai-Hua; Ma, Jun

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose: The impact of comorbidity on prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is poorly characterized. Material and methods: Using the Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 (ACE-27) system, we assessed the prognostic value of comorbidity and developed, validated and confirmed a predictive score model in a training set (n = 658), internal validation set (n = 658) and independent set (n = 652) using area under the receiver operating curve analysis. Results: Comorbidity was present in 40.4% of 1968 patients (mild, 30.1%; moderate, 9.1%; severe, 1.2%). Compared to an ACE-27 score ⩽1, patients with an ACE-27 score >1 in the training set had shorter overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) (both P < 0.001), similar results were obtained in the other sets (P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, ACE-27 score was a significant independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS. The combined risk score model including ACE-27 had superior prognostic value to TNM stage alone in the internal validation set (0.70 vs. 0.66; P = 0.02), independent set (0.73 vs. 0.67; P = 0.002) and all patients (0.71 vs. 0.67; P < 0.001). Conclusions: Comorbidity significantly affects prognosis, especially in stages II and III, and should be incorporated into the TNM staging system for NPC. Assessment of comorbidity may improve outcome prediction and help tailor individualized treatment

  8. Assessing mental health clinicians' intentions to adopt evidence-based treatments: reliability and validity testing of the evidence-based treatment intentions scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Nathaniel J

    2016-05-05

    Intentions play a central role in numerous empirically supported theories of behavior and behavior change and have been identified as a potentially important antecedent to successful evidence-based treatment (EBT) implementation. Despite this, few measures of mental health clinicians' EBT intentions exist and available measures have not been subject to thorough psychometric evaluation or testing. This paper evaluates the psychometric properties of the evidence-based treatment intentions (EBTI) scale, a new measure of mental health clinicians' intentions to adopt EBTs. The study evaluates the reliability and validity of inferences made with the EBTI using multi-method, multi-informant criterion variables collected over 12 months from a sample of 197 mental health clinicians delivering services in 13 mental health agencies. Structural, predictive, and discriminant validity evidence is assessed. Findings support the EBTI's factor structure (χ (2) = 3.96, df = 5, p = .556) and internal consistency reliability (α = .80). Predictive validity evidence was provided by robust and significant associations between EBTI scores and clinicians' observer-reported attendance at a voluntary EBT workshop at a 1-month follow-up (OR = 1.92, p adoption at a 12-month follow-up (R (2) = .17, p adopt EBTs. Discussion focuses on research and practice applications.

  9. Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachance, Philippe; Mac-Way, Fabrice; Desmeules, Simon; De Serres, Sacha A; Julien, Anne-Sophie; Douville, Pierre; Ghannoum, Marc; Agharazii, Mohsen

    2015-11-01

    The duration of hemodialysis (HD) in methanol poisoning (MP) is dependent on the methanol concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. However, methanol assays are not easily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of treatment. Here we provide a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD in MP. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified 71 episodes of MP in 55 individuals who were treated with alcohol dehydrogenase inhibition and HD. Four patients had residual visual abnormality at discharge and only one patient died. In 46 unique episodes of MP with high-efficiency HD the mean methanol elimination half-life (T1/2) during HD was 108 min in women, significantly different from the 129 min in men. In a training set of 28 patients with MP, using the 90th percentile of gender-specific elimination T1/2 (147 min in men and 141 min in women) and a target methanol concentration of 4 mmol/l allowed all cases to reach a safe methanol of under 6 mmol/l. The prediction model was confirmed in a validation set of 18 patients with MP. High-efficiency HD time in hours can be estimated using 3.390 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for women and 3.534 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for men, where MCi is the initial methanol concentration in mmol/l, provided that metabolic acidosis is corrected.

  10. Identifying and Evaluating External Validity Evidence for Passing Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis-Becker, Susan L.; Buckendahl, Chad W.

    2013-01-01

    A critical component of the standard setting process is collecting evidence to evaluate the recommended cut scores and their use for making decisions and classifying students based on test performance. Kane (1994, 2001) proposed a framework by which practitioners can identify and evaluate evidence of the results of the standard setting from (1)…

  11. Performance of a cognitive load inventory during simulated handoffs: Evidence for validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, John Q; Boscardin, Christy K; van Dijk, Savannah M; Abdullah, Ruqayyah; Irby, David M; Sewell, Justin L; Ten Cate, Olle; O'Sullivan, Patricia S

    2016-01-01

    Advancing patient safety during handoffs remains a public health priority. The application of cognitive load theory offers promise, but is currently limited by the inability to measure cognitive load types. To develop and collect validity evidence for a revised self-report inventory that measures cognitive load types during a handoff. Based on prior published work, input from experts in cognitive load theory and handoffs, and a think-aloud exercise with residents, a revised Cognitive Load Inventory for Handoffs was developed. The Cognitive Load Inventory for Handoffs has items for intrinsic, extraneous, and germane load. Students who were second- and sixth-year students recruited from a Dutch medical school participated in four simulated handoffs (two simple and two complex cases). At the end of each handoff, study participants completed the Cognitive Load Inventory for Handoffs, Paas' Cognitive Load Scale, and one global rating item for intrinsic load, extraneous load, and germane load, respectively. Factor and correlational analyses were performed to collect evidence for validity. Confirmatory factor analysis yielded a single factor that combined intrinsic and germane loads. The extraneous load items performed poorly and were removed from the model. The score from the combined intrinsic and germane load items associated, as predicted by cognitive load theory, with a commonly used measure of overall cognitive load (Pearson's r = 0.83, p load during handoffs may be measured via a self-report measure. Additional work is required to develop an adequate measure of extraneous load.

  12. Validity of Quinpirole Sensitization Rat Model of OCD: Linking Evidence from Animal and Clinical Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuchlik, Ales; Radostová, Dominika; Hatalova, Hana; Vales, Karel; Nekovarova, Tereza; Koprivova, Jana; Svoboda, Jan; Horacek, Jiri

    2016-01-01

    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a neuropsychiatric disorder with 1-3% prevalence. OCD is characterized by recurrent thoughts (obsessions) and repetitive behaviors (compulsions). The pathophysiology of OCD remains unclear, stressing the importance of pre-clinical studies. The aim of this article is to critically review a proposed animal model of OCD that is characterized by the induction of compulsive checking and behavioral sensitization to the D2/D3 dopamine agonist quinpirole. Changes in this model have been reported at the level of brain structures, neurotransmitter systems and other neurophysiological aspects. In this review, we consider these alterations in relation to the clinical manifestations in OCD, with the aim to discuss and evaluate axes of validity of this model. Our analysis shows that some axes of validity of quinpirole sensitization model (QSM) are strongly supported by clinical findings, such as behavioral phenomenology or roles of brain structures. Evidence on predictive validity is contradictory and ambiguous. It is concluded that this model is useful in the context of searching for the underlying pathophysiological basis of the disorder because of the relatively strong biological similarities with OCD.

  13. Validation of resting metabolic rate prediction equations for teenagers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Henrique Santos da Fonseca

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The resting metabolic rate (RMR can be defi ned as the minimum rate of energy spent and represents the main component of the energetic outlay. The purpose of this study is to validate equations to predict the resting metabolic rate in teenagers (103 individuals, being 51 girls and 52 boys, with age between 10 and 17 years from Florianópolis – SC – Brazil. It was measured: the body weight, body height, skinfolds and obtained the lean and body fat mass through bioimpedance. The nonproteic RMR was measured by Weir’s equation (1949, utilizing AeroSport TEEM-100 gas analyzer. The studied equations were: Harry and Benedict (1919, Schofi eld (1985, WHO/FAO/UNU (1985, Henry and Rees (1991, Molnár et al. (1998, Tverskaya et al. (1998 and Müller et al. (2004. In order to study the cross-validation of the RMR prediction equations and its standard measure (Weir 1949, the following statistics procedure were calculated: Pearson’s correlation (r ≥ 0.70, the “t” test with the signifi cance level of p0.05 in relation to the standard measure, with exception of the equations suggested for Tverskaya et al. (1998, and the two models of Müller et al (2004. Even though there was not a signifi cant difference, only the models considered for Henry and Rees (1991, and Molnár et al. (1995 had gotten constant error variation under 5%. All the equations analyzed in the study in girls had not reached criterion of correlation values of 0.70 with the indirect calorimetry. Analyzing the prediction equations of RMR in boys, all of them had moderate correlation coeffi cients with the indirect calorimetry, however below 0.70. Only the equation developed for Tverskaya et al. (1998 presented differences (p ABSTRACT0,05 em relação à medida padrão (Weir 1949, com exceção das equações sugeridas por Tverskaya et al. (1998 e os dois modelos de Müller et al (2004. Mesmo não havendo diferença signifi cativa, somente os modelos propostos por Henry e Rees (1991

  14. Developing a model for validation and prediction of bank customer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Credit risk is the most important risk of banks. The main approaches of the bank to reduce credit risk are correct validation using the final status and the validation model parameters. High fuel of bank reserves and lost or outstanding facilities of banks indicate the lack of appropriate validation models in the banking network.

  15. Validity evidence and reliability of a simulated patient feedback instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlegel, Claudia; Woermann, Ulrich; Rethans, Jan-Joost; van der Vleuten, Cees

    2012-01-27

    In the training of healthcare professionals, one of the advantages of communication training with simulated patients (SPs) is the SP's ability to provide direct feedback to students after a simulated clinical encounter. The quality of SP feedback must be monitored, especially because it is well known that feedback can have a profound effect on student performance. Due to the current lack of valid and reliable instruments to assess the quality of SP feedback, our study examined the validity and reliability of one potential instrument, the 'modified Quality of Simulated Patient Feedback Form' (mQSF). Content validity of the mQSF was assessed by inviting experts in the area of simulated clinical encounters to rate the importance of the mQSF items. Moreover, generalizability theory was used to examine the reliability of the mQSF. Our data came from videotapes of clinical encounters between six simulated patients and six students and the ensuing feedback from the SPs to the students. Ten faculty members judged the SP feedback according to the items on the mQSF. Three weeks later, this procedure was repeated with the same faculty members and recordings. All but two items of the mQSF received importance ratings of > 2.5 on a four-point rating scale. A generalizability coefficient of 0.77 was established with two judges observing one encounter. The findings for content validity and reliability with two judges suggest that the mQSF is a valid and reliable instrument to assess the quality of feedback provided by simulated patients.

  16. An integrated computational validation approach for potential novel miRNA prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pooja Viswam

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs are short, non-coding RNAs between 17bp-24bp length that regulate gene expression by targeting mRNA molecules. The regulatory functions of miRNAs are known to be majorly associated with disease phenotypes such as cancer, cell signaling, cell division, growth and other metabolisms. Novel miRNAs are defined as sequences which does not have any similarity with the existing known sequences and void of any experimental evidences. In recent decades, the advent of next-generation sequencing allows us to capture the small RNA molecules form the cells and developing methods to estimate their expression levels. Several computational algorithms are available to predict the novel miRNAs from the deep sequencing data. In this work, we integrated three novel miRNA prediction programs miRDeep, miRanalyzer and miRPRo to compare and validate their prediction efficiency. The dicer cleavage sites, alignment density, seed conservation, minimum free energy, AU-GC percentage, secondary loop scores, false discovery rates and confidence scores will be considered for comparison and evaluation. Efficiency to identify isomiRs and base pair mismatches in a strand specific manner will also be considered for the computational validation. Further, the criteria and parameters for the identification of the best possible novel miRNA with minimal false positive rates were deduced.

  17. Further Validation of the IDAS: Evidence of Convergent, Discriminant, Criterion, and Incremental Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, David; O'Hara, Michael W.; Chmielewski, Michael; McDade-Montez, Elizabeth A.; Koffel, Erin; Naragon, Kristin; Stuart, Scott

    2008-01-01

    The authors explicated the validity of the Inventory of Depression and Anxiety Symptoms (IDAS; D. Watson et al., 2007) in 2 samples (306 college students and 605 psychiatric patients). The IDAS scales showed strong convergent validity in relation to parallel interview-based scores on the Clinician Rating version of the IDAS; the mean convergent…

  18. Validity evidence as a key marker of quality of technical skill assessment in OTL-HNS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labbé, Mathilde; Young, Meredith; Nguyen, Lily H P

    2018-01-13

    Quality monitoring of assessment practices should be a priority in all residency programs. Validity evidence is one of the main hallmarks of assessment quality and should be collected to support the interpretation and use of assessment data. Our objective was to identify, synthesize, and present the validity evidence reported supporting different technical skill assessment tools in otolaryngology-head and neck surgery (OTL-HNS). We performed a secondary analysis of data generated through a systematic review of all published tools for assessing technical skills in OTL-HNS (n = 16). For each tool, we coded validity evidence according to the five types of evidence described by the American Educational Research Association's interpretation of Messick's validity framework. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted. All 16 tools included in our analysis were supported by internal structure and relationship to variables validity evidence. Eleven articles presented evidence supporting content. Response process was discussed only in one article, and no study reported on evidence exploring consequences. We present the validity evidence reported for 16 rater-based tools that could be used for work-based assessment of OTL-HNS residents in the operating room. The articles included in our review were consistently deficient in evidence for response process and consequences. Rater-based assessment tools that support high-stakes decisions that impact the learner and programs should include several sources of validity evidence. Thus, use of any assessment should be done with careful consideration of the context-specific validity evidence supporting score interpretation, and we encourage deliberate continual assessment quality-monitoring. NA. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  19. An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2017-05-22

    PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age

  20. An Econometric Validation of Malthusian Theory: Evidence in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Musa Abdullahi Sakanko

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Rising population is an asset, provided, the skills of the workforce are used to the maximum extent. If not appropriately channelized, it can be a liability for a nation. A skilled and hardworking population can emerge as a foundation for a country’s development. This study examines the validity of Malthusian Theory in Nigeria using time series data from 1960 to 2016, employs the ARDL bound test techniques. The result shows that in the long-run, population growth and food production move proportionately, while population growth poses a depleting effect on food production in the short-run, thus validating the incidence of Malthusian impact in Nigerian economy in the short-run. The researcher recommended the government should strategize plans, which will further intensify family planning and birth control measure, compulsory western education and revitalization of the agricultural sector.DOI: 10.150408/sjie.v7i1.6461

  1. 20 CFR 219.31 - Evidence of a valid ceremonial marriage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Evidence of a valid ceremonial marriage. 219... marriage. (a) Preferred evidence. Preferred evidence of a ceremonial marriage is— (1) A copy of the public record of the marriage, certified by the custodian of the record or by a Board employee; (2) A copy of a...

  2. Pathogens and politics: further evidence that parasite prevalence predicts authoritarianism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Damian R; Schaller, Mark; Suedfeld, Peter

    2013-01-01

    According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat-famine-also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities.

  3. Predictive Validity of Delay Discounting Behavior in Adolescence: A Longitudinal Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isen, Joshua D.; Sparks, Jordan C.; Iacono, William G.

    2014-01-01

    A standard assumption in the delay discounting literature is that individuals who exhibit steeper discounting of hypothetical rewards also experience greater difficulty deferring gratification to real-world rewards. There is ample cross-sectional evidence that delay discounting paradigms reflect a variety of maladaptive psychosocial outcomes, including substance use pathology. We sought to determine whether a computerized assessment of hypothetical delay discounting (HDD) taps into behavioral impulsivity in a community sample of adolescent twins (N = 675). Using a longitudinal design, we hypothesized that greater HDD at age 14–15 predicts real-world impulsive choices and risk for substance use disorders in late adolescence. We also examined the genetic and environmental structure of HDD performance. Individual differences in HDD behavior showed moderate heritability, and were prospectively associated with real-world temporal discounting at age 17–18. Contrary to expectations, HDD was not consistently related to substance use or trait impulsivity. Although a significant association between HDD behavior and past substance use emerged in males, this effect was mediated by cognitive ability. In both sexes, HDD failed to predict a comprehensive index of substance use problems and behavioral disinhibition in late adolescence. In sum, we present some of the first evidence that HDD performance is heritable and predictive of real-world temporal discounting of rewards. Nevertheless, HDD might not serve as a valid marker of substance use disorder risk in younger adolescents, particularly females. PMID:24999868

  4. What should we mean by empirical validation in hypnotherapy: evidence-based practice in clinical hypnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alladin, Assen; Sabatini, Linda; Amundson, Jon K

    2007-04-01

    This paper briefly surveys the trend of and controversy surrounding empirical validation in psychotherapy. Empirical validation of hypnotherapy has paralleled the practice of validation in psychotherapy and the professionalization of clinical psychology, in general. This evolution in determining what counts as evidence for bona fide clinical practice has gone from theory-driven clinical approaches in the 1960s and 1970s through critical attempts at categorization of empirically supported therapies in the 1990s on to the concept of evidence-based practice in 2006. Implications of this progression in professional psychology are discussed in the light of hypnosis's current quest for validation and empirical accreditation.

  5. Prediction of flow and drawdown for the site characterization and validation site in the Stripa Mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, J.C.S.; Mauldon, A.D.; Nelson, K.; Martel, S.; Fuller, P.; and Karasaki, K.

    1992-01-01

    Geophysical and hydrologic data from a location in the Stripa Mine in Sweden, called the Site Characterization and Validation (SCV) block, has been used to create a series of models for flow through the fracture network. The models can be characterized as ''equivalent discontinuum'' models. Equivalent discontinuum models are derived starting from a specified lattice or 6 ''template''. An inverse analysis called ''Simulated Annealing'' is used to make a random search through the elements of the lattice to find a configuration that can reproduce the measured responses. Evidence at Stripa points to hydrology which is dominated by fracture zones. These have been identified and located through extensive characterization efforts. Lattice templates were arranged to lie on the fracture zones identified by Black and Olsson. The fundamental goal of this project was to build a fracture flow model based an initial data set, and use this model to make predictions of the flow behavior during a new test. Then given data from the new test, predict a second test, etc. The first data set was an interference test called C1-2. Both a two-dimensional and a three-dimensional model were annealed to the C1-2 data and use this model to predict the behavior of the Simulated Drift Experiment (SDE). The SDE measured the flow into, and drawdown due to reducing the pressure in a group of 6 parallel boreholes. Then both the C1-2 and SDE data were used to predict the flow into and drawdown due to an excavation, the Validation Drift (VD), made through the boreholes. Finally, all the data was used to predict the hydrologic response to opening another hole, T1

  6. Action identity: evidence from self-recognition, prediction, and coordination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoblich, Günther; Flach, Rüdiger

    2003-12-01

    Prior research suggests that the action system is responsible for creating an immediate sense of self by determining whether certain sensations and perceptions are the result of one's own actions. In addition, it is assumed that declarative, episodic, or autobiographical memories create a temporally extended sense of self or some form of identity. In the present article, we review recent evidence suggesting that action (procedural) knowledge also forms part of a person's identity, an action identity, so to speak. Experiments that addressed self-recognition of past actions, prediction, and coordination provide ample evidence for this assumption. The phenomena observed in these experiments can be explained by the assumption that observing an action results in the activation of action representations, the more so, when the action observed corresponds to the way in which the observer would produce it.

  7. Validation of the mortality prediction equation for damage control ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , preoperative lowest pH and lowest core body temperature to derive an equation for the purpose of predicting mortality in damage control surgery. It was shown to reliably predict death despite damage control surgery. The equation derivation ...

  8. Validation Evidence of the Motivation for Teaching Scale in Secondary Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abós, Ángel; Sevil, Javier; Martín-Albo, José; Aibar, Alberto; García-González, Luis

    2018-04-10

    Grounded in self-determination theory, the aim of this study was to develop a scale with adequate psychometric properties to assess motivation for teaching and to explain some outcomes of secondary education teachers at work. The sample comprised 584 secondary education teachers. Analyses supported the five-factor model (intrinsic motivation, identified regulation, introjected regulation, external regulation and amotivation) and indicated the presence of a continuum of self-determination. Evidence of reliability was provided by Cronbach's alpha, composite reliability and average variance extracted. Multigroup confirmatory factor analyses supported the partial invariance (configural and metric) of the scale in different sub-samples, in terms of gender and type of school. Concurrent validity was analyzed by a structural equation modeling that explained 71% of the work dedication variance and 69% of the boredom at work variance. Work dedication was positively predicted by intrinsic motivation (ß = .56, p amotivation (ß = -.49, p amotivation (ß = .68, p < .001). The Motivation for Teaching Scale in Secondary Education (Spanish acronym EME-ES, Escala de Motivación por la Enseñanza en Educación Secundaria) is discussed as a valid and reliable instrument. This is the first specific scale in the work context of secondary teachers that has integrated the five-factor structure together with their dedication and boredom at work.

  9. Predictive Simulation of Material Failure Using Peridynamics -- Advanced Constitutive Modeling, Verification and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-31

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0309 Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics- advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation... Self -explanatory. 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER. Enter all unique alphanumeric report numbers assigned by the performing organization, e.g...for public release. Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics-advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation John T

  10. Basic Modelling principles and Validation of Software for Prediction of Collision Damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    2000-01-01

    This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software.......This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software....

  11. Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Based Measures for English Learners at Varying English Proficiency Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jennifer Sun; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of curriculum-based measures in reading for Spanish-speaking English learners (ELs) at various levels of English proficiency. Third-grade Spanish-speaking EL students were screened during the fall using DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency (DORF) and Daze. Predictive validity was examined in relation to spring…

  12. Brief implicit association test: Validity and utility in prediction of voting behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavlović Maša D.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We employed the Brief Implicit Association Test (a recently developed short version of IAT to measure implicit political attitudes toward four political parties running for Serbian parliament. To test its criterion validity, we measured voting intention and actual voting behavior. In addition, we introduced political involvement as a potential moderator of the BIAT’s predictive and incremental validity. The BIAT demonstrated good internal and predictive validity, but lacked incremental validity over self-report measures. Predictive power of the BIAT was moderated by political involvement - the BIAT scores were stronger predictors of voting intention and behavior among voters highly involved in politics. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179018

  13. Predictive Validity of DSM-IV Oppositional Defiant and Conduct Disorders in Clinically Referred Preschoolers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenan, Kate; Boeldt, Debra; Chen, Diane; Coyne, Claire; Donald, Radiah; Duax, Jeanne; Hart, Katherine; Perrott, Jennifer; Strickland, Jennifer; Danis, Barbara; Hill, Carri; Davis, Shante; Kampani, Smita; Humphries, Marisha

    2011-01-01

    Background: Diagnostic validity of oppositional defiant and conduct disorders (ODD and CD) for preschoolers has been questioned based on concerns regarding the ability to differentiate normative, transient disruptive behavior from clinical symptoms. Data on concurrent validity have accumulated, but predictive validity is limited. Predictive…

  14. On Validation of Directional Wave Predictions: Review and Discussion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rogers, W. E; Wang, David W

    2006-01-01

    This report consists of supplementary materials for an article, accepted for publication in the "Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology," dealing with directional wave model validation by the same authors...

  15. Validation of Likelihood Ratio Methods Used for Forensic Evidence Evaluation: Application in Forensic Fingerprints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haraksim, Rudolf

    2014-01-01

    In this chapter the Likelihood Ratio (LR) inference model will be introduced, the theoretical aspects of probabilities will be discussed and the validation framework for LR methods used for forensic evidence evaluation will be presented. Prior to introducing the validation framework, following

  16. Evaluating Existing and New Validity Evidence for the Academic Motivation Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Amanda J.; Horst, S. Jeanne; Finney, Sara J.; Barron, Kenneth E.

    2005-01-01

    The current study evaluates existing and new validity evidence for the Academic Motivation Scale (AMS; Vallerand et al., 1992). We first provide a narrative review synthesizing past research, and then conduct a validity investigation of the scores from the measure. Data analysis using a sample of 1406 American college students provided construct…

  17. Importance of Statistical Evidence in Estimating Valid DEA Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnum, Darold T; Johnson, Matthew; Gleason, John M

    2016-03-01

    Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) allows healthcare scholars to measure productivity in a holistic manner. It combines a production unit's multiple outputs and multiple inputs into a single measure of its overall performance relative to other units in the sample being analyzed. It accomplishes this task by aggregating a unit's weighted outputs and dividing the output sum by the unit's aggregated weighted inputs, choosing output and input weights that maximize its output/input ratio when the same weights are applied to other units in the sample. Conventional DEA assumes that inputs and outputs are used in different proportions by the units in the sample. So, for the sample as a whole, inputs have been substituted for each other and outputs have been transformed into each other. Variables are assigned different weights based on their marginal rates of substitution and marginal rates of transformation. If in truth inputs have not been substituted nor outputs transformed, then there will be no marginal rates and therefore no valid basis for differential weights. This paper explains how to statistically test for the presence of substitutions among inputs and transformations among outputs. Then, it applies these tests to the input and output data from three healthcare DEA articles, in order to identify the effects on DEA scores when input substitutions and output transformations are absent in the sample data. It finds that DEA scores are badly biased when substitution and transformation are absent and conventional DEA models are used.

  18. Validity Evidence for the Security Scale as a Measure of Perceived Attachment Security in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Ryzin, Mark J.; Leve, Leslie D.

    2012-01-01

    In this study, the validity of a self-report measure of children's perceived attachment security (the Kerns Security Scale) was tested using adolescents. With regards to predictive validity, the Security Scale was significantly associated with (1) observed mother-adolescent interactions during conflict and (2) parent- and teacher-rated social…

  19. On the incremental validity of irrational beliefs to predict subjective well-being while controlling for personality factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spörrle, Matthias; Strobel, Maria; Tumasjan, Andranik

    2010-11-01

    This research examines the incremental validity of irrational thinking as conceptualized by Albert Ellis to predict diverse aspects of subjective well-being while controlling for the influence of personality factors. Rational-emotive behavior therapy (REBT) argues that irrational beliefs result in maladaptive emotions leading to reduced well-being. Although there is some early scientific evidence for this relation, it has never been investigated whether this connection would still persist when statistically controlling for the Big Five personality factors, which were consistently found to be important determinants of well-being. Regression analyses revealed significant incremental validity of irrationality over personality factors when predicting life satisfaction, but not when predicting subjective happiness. Results are discussed with respect to conceptual differences between these two aspects of subjective well-being.

  20. Automatic evidence quality prediction to support evidence-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarker, Abeed; Mollá, Diego; Paris, Cécile

    2015-06-01

    Evidence-based medicine practice requires practitioners to obtain the best available medical evidence, and appraise the quality of the evidence when making clinical decisions. Primarily due to the plethora of electronically available data from the medical literature, the manual appraisal of the quality of evidence is a time-consuming process. We present a fully automatic approach for predicting the quality of medical evidence in order to aid practitioners at point-of-care. Our approach extracts relevant information from medical article abstracts and utilises data from a specialised corpus to apply supervised machine learning for the prediction of the quality grades. Following an in-depth analysis of the usefulness of features (e.g., publication types of articles), they are extracted from the text via rule-based approaches and from the meta-data associated with the articles, and then applied in the supervised classification model. We propose the use of a highly scalable and portable approach using a sequence of high precision classifiers, and introduce a simple evaluation metric called average error distance (AED) that simplifies the comparison of systems. We also perform elaborate human evaluations to compare the performance of our system against human judgments. We test and evaluate our approaches on a publicly available, specialised, annotated corpus containing 1132 evidence-based recommendations. Our rule-based approach performs exceptionally well at the automatic extraction of publication types of articles, with F-scores of up to 0.99 for high-quality publication types. For evidence quality classification, our approach obtains an accuracy of 63.84% and an AED of 0.271. The human evaluations show that the performance of our system, in terms of AED and accuracy, is comparable to the performance of humans on the same data. The experiments suggest that our structured text classification framework achieves evaluation results comparable to those of human performance

  1. easyCBM® Reading Criterion Related Validity Evidence: Grades K-1. Technical Report #1309

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Cheng-Fei; Alonzo, Julie; Tindal, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    In this technical report, we present the results of a study to gather criterion-related evidence for Grade K-1 easyCBM® reading measures. We used correlations to examine the relation between the easyCBM® measures and other published measures with known reliability and validity evidence, including the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy…

  2. easyCBM® Reading Criterion Related Validity Evidence: Grades 2-5. Technical Report #1310

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Cheng-Fei; Alonzo, Julie; Tindal, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    In this technical report, we present the results of a study to gather criterion-related evidence for Grade 2-5 easyCBM® reading measures. We used correlations to examine the relation between the easyCBM® measures and other published measures with known reliability and validity evidence, including the Gates-MacGinitie Reading Tests and the Dynamic…

  3. Sensor Data Fusion for Accurate Cloud Presence Prediction Using Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse S. Jin

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Sensor data fusion technology can be used to best extract useful information from multiple sensor observations. It has been widely applied in various applications such as target tracking, surveillance, robot navigation, signal and image processing. This paper introduces a novel data fusion approach in a multiple radiation sensor environment using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology is used to predict cloud presence based on the inputs of radiation sensors. Different radiation data have been used for the cloud prediction. The potential application areas of the algorithm include renewable power for virtual power station where the prediction of cloud presence is the most challenging issue for its photovoltaic output. The algorithm is validated by comparing the predicted cloud presence with the corresponding sunshine occurrence data that were recorded as the benchmark. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual sensors, the proposed data fusion approach can increase correct rate of cloud prediction by ten percent, and decrease unknown rate of cloud prediction by twenty three percent.

  4. Predictive Validity And Usefulness Of Visual Scanning Task In Hiv ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There are evidences of brain damage, based on functional neuro-imaging studies, ... These subjects\\' performances were compared with age, sex and level of ... There were significant differences in the performances of the HIV-positive ...

  5. Validation of stress prediction during solidification of cast components

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Paine, AP

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available to solidify and undergoes changes in phases where different material laws are valid. In the fluid state the metal is almost stress free but as the part starts to solidify and shrink, stresses are induced in the casting due to constraints from the mould. Some...

  6. Incremental validity of positive orientation: predictive efficiency beyond the five-factor model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łukasz Roland Miciuk

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The relation of positive orientation (a basic predisposition to think positively of oneself, one’s life and one’s future and personality traits is still disputable. The purpose of the described research was to verify the hypothesis that positive orientation has predictive efficiency beyond the five-factor model. Participants and procedure One hundred and thirty participants (at the mean age M = 24.84 completed the following questionnaires: the Self-Esteem Scale (SES, the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS, the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R, the Positivity Scale (P-SCALE, the NEO Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI, the Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCC, the Generalized Self-Efficacy Scale (GSES and the Life Engagement Test (LET. Results The introduction of positive orientation as an additional predictor in the second step of regression analyses led to better prediction of the following variables: purpose in life, self-concept clarity and generalized self-efficacy. This effect was the strongest for predicting purpose in life (i.e. 14% increment of the explained variance. Conclusions The results confirmed our hypothesis that positive orientation can be characterized by incremental validity – its inclusion in the regression model (in addition to the five main factors of personality increases the amount of explained variance. These findings may provide further evidence for the legitimacy of measuring positive orientation and personality traits separately.

  7. A guideline for the validation of likelihood ratio methods used for forensic evidence evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meuwly, Didier; Ramos, Daniel; Haraksim, Rudolf

    2017-07-01

    This Guideline proposes a protocol for the validation of forensic evaluation methods at the source level, using the Likelihood Ratio framework as defined within the Bayes' inference model. In the context of the inference of identity of source, the Likelihood Ratio is used to evaluate the strength of the evidence for a trace specimen, e.g. a fingermark, and a reference specimen, e.g. a fingerprint, to originate from common or different sources. Some theoretical aspects of probabilities necessary for this Guideline were discussed prior to its elaboration, which started after a workshop of forensic researchers and practitioners involved in this topic. In the workshop, the following questions were addressed: "which aspects of a forensic evaluation scenario need to be validated?", "what is the role of the LR as part of a decision process?" and "how to deal with uncertainty in the LR calculation?". The questions: "what to validate?" focuses on the validation methods and criteria and "how to validate?" deals with the implementation of the validation protocol. Answers to these questions were deemed necessary with several objectives. First, concepts typical for validation standards [1], such as performance characteristics, performance metrics and validation criteria, will be adapted or applied by analogy to the LR framework. Second, a validation strategy will be defined. Third, validation methods will be described. Finally, a validation protocol and an example of validation report will be proposed, which can be applied to the forensic fields developing and validating LR methods for the evaluation of the strength of evidence at source level under the following propositions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. When Assessment Data Are Words: Validity Evidence for Qualitative Educational Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, David A; Kuper, Ayelet; Hatala, Rose; Ginsburg, Shiphra

    2016-10-01

    Quantitative scores fail to capture all important features of learner performance. This awareness has led to increased use of qualitative data when assessing health professionals. Yet the use of qualitative assessments is hampered by incomplete understanding of their role in forming judgments, and lack of consensus in how to appraise the rigor of judgments therein derived. The authors articulate the role of qualitative assessment as part of a comprehensive program of assessment, and translate the concept of validity to apply to judgments arising from qualitative assessments. They first identify standards for rigor in qualitative research, and then use two contemporary assessment validity frameworks to reorganize these standards for application to qualitative assessment.Standards for rigor in qualitative research include responsiveness, reflexivity, purposive sampling, thick description, triangulation, transparency, and transferability. These standards can be reframed using Messick's five sources of validity evidence (content, response process, internal structure, relationships with other variables, and consequences) and Kane's four inferences in validation (scoring, generalization, extrapolation, and implications). Evidence can be collected and evaluated for each evidence source or inference. The authors illustrate this approach using published research on learning portfolios.The authors advocate a "methods-neutral" approach to assessment, in which a clearly stated purpose determines the nature of and approach to data collection and analysis. Increased use of qualitative assessments will necessitate more rigorous judgments of the defensibility (validity) of inferences and decisions. Evidence should be strategically sought to inform a coherent validity argument.

  9. Validation of Individual Non-Linear Predictive Pharmacokinetic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    3Department of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia ... Purpose: To evaluate the predictive performance of phenytoin multiple dosing non-linear pharmacokinetic ... status epilepticus affects an estimated 152,000 ..... causal factors, i.e., infection, inflammation, tissue.

  10. Validation of an internal hardwood log defect prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward. Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The type, size, and location of internal defects dictate the grade and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. However, acquiring internal defect knowledge with x-ray/computed-tomography or magnetic-resonance imaging technology can be expensive both in time and cost. An alternative approach uses prediction models based on correlations among external defect indicators...

  11. Cost prediction following traumatic brain injury: model development and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitz, Gershon; McKenzie, Dean; Attwood, David; Ponsford, Jennie L

    2016-02-01

    The ability to predict costs following a traumatic brain injury (TBI) would assist in planning treatment and support services by healthcare providers, insurers and other agencies. The objective of the current study was to develop predictive models of hospital, medical, paramedical, and long-term care (LTC) costs for the first 10 years following a TBI. The sample comprised 798 participants with TBI, the majority of whom were male and aged between 15 and 34 at time of injury. Costing information was obtained for hospital, medical, paramedical, and LTC costs up to 10 years postinjury. Demographic and injury-severity variables were collected at the time of admission to the rehabilitation hospital. Duration of PTA was the most important single predictor for each cost type. The final models predicted 44% of hospital costs, 26% of medical costs, 23% of paramedical costs, and 34% of LTC costs. Greater costs were incurred, depending on cost type, for individuals with longer PTA duration, obtaining a limb or chest injury, a lower GCS score, older age at injury, not being married or defacto prior to injury, living in metropolitan areas, and those reporting premorbid excessive or problem alcohol use. This study has provided a comprehensive analysis of factors predicting various types of costs following TBI, with the combination of injury-related and demographic variables predicting 23-44% of costs. PTA duration was the strongest predictor across all cost categories. These factors may be used for the planning and case management of individuals following TBI. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  12. Proteomic signature of periodontal disease in pregnancy: Predictive validity for adverse outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramchandani, Manisha; Siddiqui, Muniza; Kanwar, Raveena; Lakha, Manwinder; Phi, Linda; Giacomelli, Luca; Chiappelli, Francesco

    2011-01-06

    The rate of preterm birth is a public health concern worldwide because it is increasing and efforts to prevent it have failed. We report a Clinically Relevant Complex Systematic Review (CSCSR) designed to identify and evaluate the best available evidence in support of the association between periodontal status in women and pregnancy outcome of preterm low birth weight. We hypothesize that the traditional limits of research synthesis must be expanded to incorporate a translational component. As a proof-of-concept model, we propose that this CSCSR can yield greater validity of efficacy and effectiveness through supplementing its recommendations with data of the proteomic signature of periodontal disease in pregnancy, which can contribute to addressing specifically the predictive validity for adverse outcomes. For this CRCSR, systematic reviews were identified through The National Library of MedicinePubmed, The Cochrane library, CINAHL, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and the American Dental Association web library. Independent reviewers quantified the relevance and quality of this literature with R-AMSTAR. Homogeneity and inter-rater reliability testing were supplemented with acceptable sampling analysis. Research synthesis outcomes were analyzed qualitatively toward a Bayesian inference, and converge to demonstrate a definite association between maternal periodontal disease and pregnancy outcome. This CRCSR limits heterogeneity in terms of periodontal disease, outcome measure, selection bias, uncontrolled confounders and effect modifiers. Taken together, the translational CRCSR model we propose suggests that further research is advocated to explore the fundamental mechanisms underlying this association, from a molecular and proteomic perspective.

  13. Further validation of the Satisfaction with Life Scale: evidence for the cross-method convergence of well-being measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavot, W; Diener, E; Colvin, C R; Sandvik, E

    1991-08-01

    The structure of subjective well-being has been conceptualized as consisting of two major components: the emotional or affective component and the judgmental or cognitive component (Diener, 1984; Veenhoven, 1984). The judgmental component has also been conceptualized as life satisfaction (Andrews & Withey, 1976). Although the affective component of subjective well-being has received considerable attention from researchers, the judgmental component has been relatively neglected. The Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS; Diener, Emmons, Larsen, & Griffin, 1985) was developed as a measure of the judgmental component of subjective well-being (SWB). Two studied designed to validate further the SWLS are reported. Peer reports, a memory measure, and clinical ratings are used as external criteria for validation. Evidence for the reliability and predictive validity of the SWLS is presented, and its performance is compared to other related scales. The SWLS is shown to be a valid and reliable measure of life satisfaction, suited for use with a wide range of age groups and applications, which makes possible the savings of interview time and resources compared to many measures of life satisfaction. In addition, the high convergence of self- and peer-reported measures of subjective well-being and life satisfaction provide strong evidence that subjective well-being is a relatively global and stable phenomenon, not simply a momentary judgment based on fleeting influences.

  14. Predictive validity of the Hendrich fall risk model II in an acute geriatric unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivziku, Dhurata; Matarese, Maria; Pedone, Claudio

    2011-04-01

    Falls are the most common adverse events reported in acute care hospitals, and older patients are the most likely to fall. The risk of falling cannot be completely eliminated, but it can be reduced through the implementation of a fall prevention program. A major evidence-based intervention to prevent falls has been the use of fall-risk assessment tools. Many tools have been increasingly developed in recent years, but most instruments have not been investigated regarding reliability, validity and clinical usefulness. This study intends to evaluate the predictive validity and inter-rater reliability of Hendrich fall risk model II (HFRM II) in order to identify older patients at risk of falling in geriatric units and recommend its use in clinical practice. A prospective descriptive design was used. The study was carried out in a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital. All over 65 years old patients consecutively admitted to a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital over 8-month period were enrolled. The patients enrolled were screened for the falls risk by nurses with the HFRM II within 24h of admission. The falls occurring during the patient's hospital stay were registered. Inter-rater reliability, area under the ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and time for the administration were evaluated. 179 elderly patients were included. The inter-rater reliability was 0.87 (95% CI 0.71-1.00). The administration time was about 1min. The most frequently reported risk factors were depression, incontinence, vertigo. Sensitivity and specificity were respectively 86% and 43%. The optimal cut-off score for screening at risk patients was 5 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72. The risk factors more strongly associated with falls were confusion and depression. As falls of older patients are a common problem in acute care settings it is necessary that the nurses use specific validate and reliable

  15. Predicting the Unpredictable: 75 Years of Experimental Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin, Dean I.

    2011-11-01

    From time immemorial, people have reported foreknowledge of future events. To determine whether such experiences are best understood via conventional explanations, or whether a retrocausal phenomenon might be involved in some instances, researchers have conducted hundreds of controlled laboratory experiments over the past 75 years. These studies fall into four general classes, and each class has generated repeatable evidence consistent with retrocausation. The statistical results for a class of forced-choice studies is associated with odds against chance of about 1024; for a class of free-response studies, odds about 1020; for psychophysiological-based studies, odds about 1017; and for implicit decision studies, odds about 1010. Effect sizes observed in the latter three classes are nearly identical, indicating replication of similar underlying effects. These effects are also in close agreement with the average effect size across 25,000 conventional social psychology experiments conducted over the last century, suggesting that retrocausal phenomena may not be especially unique, at least not in terms of the magnitude of effect. Bayesian analyses of the most recent classes of experiments confirm that the evidence is strongly in favor of a genuine effect, with Bayes Factors ranging from 13,669 to 1 for implicit decision experiments, to 2.9×1013 to 1 for psychophysiological designs. For the two most recent classes of studies examining retrocausal effects via unconscious physiological or behavioral measures, 85 of 101 studies (84%) reported by 25 different laboratories from the United States, Italy, Spain, Holland, Austria, Sweden, England, Scotland, Iran, Japan, and Australia, have produced results in the direction predicted by a retrocausal effect (odds against chance = 1.3×1012, via a sign test). Assessment of the methodologies used in these studies has not identified plausible conventional alternatives for the observed outcomes, suggesting the existence of a

  16. Bayesian evidence and predictivity of the inflationary paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubitosi, Giulia; Lagos, Macarena; Magueijo, João [Theoretical Physics, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College, London, SW7 2BZ (United Kingdom); Allison, Rupert, E-mail: g.gubitosi@imperial.ac.uk, E-mail: m.lagos13@imperial.ac.uk, E-mail: j.magueijo@imperial.ac.uk, E-mail: rupert.allison@astro.ox.ac.uk [Astrophysics, University of Oxford, DWB, Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3RH (United Kingdom)

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we consider the issue of paradigm evaluation by applying Bayes' theorem along the following nested hierarchy of progressively more complex structures: i) parameter estimation (within a model), ii) model selection and comparison (within a paradigm), iii) paradigm evaluation. In such a hierarchy the Bayesian evidence works both as the posterior's normalization at a given level and as the likelihood function at the next level up. Whilst raising no objections to the standard application of the procedure at the two lowest levels, we argue that it should receive a considerable modification when evaluating paradigms, when testability and fitting data are equally important. By considering toy models we illustrate how models and paradigms that are difficult to falsify are always favoured by the Bayes factor. We argue that the evidence for a paradigm should not only be high for a given dataset, but exceptional with respect to what it would have been, had the data been different. With this motivation we propose a measure which we term predictivity , as well as a prior to be incorporated into the Bayesian framework, penalising unpredictivity as much as not fitting data. We apply this measure to inflation seen as a whole, and to a scenario where a specific inflationary model is hypothetically deemed as the only one viable as a result of information alien to cosmology (e.g. Solar System gravity experiments, or particle physics input). We conclude that cosmic inflation is currently hard to falsify, but that this could change were external/additional information to cosmology to select one of its many models. We also compare this state of affairs to bimetric varying speed of light cosmology.

  17. Development and validation of outcome prediction models for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage : The SAHIT multinational cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaja, Blessing N R; Saposnik, Gustavo; Lingsma, Hester F.; Macdonald, Erin; Thorpe, Kevin E.; Mamdani, Muhammed; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Molyneux, Andrew; Manoel, Airton Leonardo De Oliveira; Schatlo, Bawarjan; Hanggi, Daniel; Hasan, David M.; Wong, George K C; Etminan, Nima; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Torner, James C.; Schaller, Karl L.; Suarez, Jose I.; Stienen, Martin N.; Vergouwen, Mervyn D.I.; Rinkel, Gabriel J.E.; Spears, Julian; Cusimano, Michael D.; Todd, Michael; Le Roux, Peter; Kirkpatrick, Peter J.; Pickard, John; Van Den Bergh, Walter M.; Murray, Gordon D; Johnston, S. Claiborne; Yamagata, Sen; Mayer, Stephan A.; Schweizer, Tom A.; Macdonald, R. Loch

    2018-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate a set of practical prediction tools that reliably estimate the outcome of subarachnoid haemorrhage from ruptured intracranial aneurysms (SAH). Design Cohort study with logistic regression analysis to combine predictors and treatment modality. Setting Subarachnoid

  18. Prediction and Validation of Mars Pathfinder Hypersonic Aerodynamic Data Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnoffo, Peter A.; Braun, Robert D.; Weilmuenster, K. James; Mitcheltree, Robert A.; Engelund, Walter C.; Powell, Richard W.

    1998-01-01

    Postflight analysis of the Mars Pathfinder hypersonic, continuum aerodynamic data base is presented. Measured data include accelerations along the body axis and axis normal directions. Comparisons of preflight simulation and measurements show good agreement. The prediction of two static instabilities associated with movement of the sonic line from the shoulder to the nose and back was confirmed by measured normal accelerations. Reconstruction of atmospheric density during entry has an uncertainty directly proportional to the uncertainty in the predicted axial coefficient. The sensitivity of the moment coefficient to freestream density, kinetic models and center-of-gravity location are examined to provide additional consistency checks of the simulation with flight data. The atmospheric density as derived from axial coefficient and measured axial accelerations falls within the range required for sonic line shift and static stability transition as independently determined from normal accelerations.

  19. Radar investigations at the Saltsjoetunnel - predictions and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, Olle; Palmqvist, Kai

    1989-01-01

    Borehole radar investigations have been performed in two boreholes drilled along the extent of the Saltsjoe tunnel in Stockholm, Sweden. The objective of the project was to test investigate the capabilities of the borehole radar technique to predict geological structures prior to tunnel excavation. Singlehole and crosshole radar measurements were made in the two boreholes which outlined and equilateral triangle. The crosshole data was used to produce tomograms showing the distribution of radar attenuation and slowness (inverse of velocity) in the plane between the boreholes. The radar model of the site contained one major feature which was identified as a fracture zone. The intersection of the fracture zone with the tunnel was extrapolated from the radar data and found to be in agreement with observations in the tunnel. At the intersection of the fracture zone with the tunnel grouting had to be applied. It has also been found that the radar identifies a number of smaller features which are of practically no significance with respect to tunnel construction. There is general agreement between the radar model of the site and the geologic-tectonic model of the site. This project has demonstrated the capability of the boreholes radar technique to predict the existence, location, and orientation of geologic features (e.g. fracture zones) which can be of significance to the cost and safety when excavating a tunnel. However, further development is needed to be able to use the technique cost effectively for continuous prediction ahead of the tunnel front. (authors) (17 figs., 1 tab.)

  20. Validation of predicted exponential concentration profiles of chemicals in soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollander, Anne; Baijens, Iris; Ragas, Ad; Huijbregts, Mark; Meent, Dik van de

    2007-01-01

    Multimedia mass balance models assume well-mixed homogeneous compartments. Particularly for soils, this does not correspond to reality, which results in potentially large uncertainties in estimates of transport fluxes from soils. A theoretically expected exponential decrease model of chemical concentrations with depth has been proposed, but hardly tested against empirical data. In this paper, we explored the correspondence between theoretically predicted soil concentration profiles and 84 field measured profiles. In most cases, chemical concentrations in soils appear to decline exponentially with depth, and values for the chemical specific soil penetration depth (d p ) are predicted within one order of magnitude. Over all, the reliability of multimedia models will improve when they account for depth-dependent soil concentrations, so we recommend to take into account the described theoretical exponential decrease model of chemical concentrations with depth in chemical fate studies. In this model the d p -values should estimated be either based on local conditions or on a fixed d p -value, which we recommend to be 10 cm for chemicals with a log K ow > 3. - Multimedia mass model predictions will improve when taking into account depth dependent soil concentrations

  1. Validity of a Manual Soft Tissue Profile Prediction Method Following Mandibular Setback Osteotomy

    OpenAIRE

    Kolokitha, Olga-Elpis

    2007-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the validity of a manual cephalometric method used for predicting the post-operative soft tissue profiles of patients who underwent mandibular setback surgery and compare it to a computerized cephalometric prediction method (Dentofacial Planner). Lateral cephalograms of 18 adults with mandibular prognathism taken at the end of pre-surgical orthodontics and approximately one year after surgery were used. Methods To test the validity of the manu...

  2. Validity evidence for the measurement of the strength of motivation for medical school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusurkar, Rashmi; Croiset, Gerda; Kruitwagen, Cas; ten Cate, Olle

    2011-05-01

    The Strength of Motivation for Medical School (SMMS) questionnaire is designed to determine the strength of motivation of students particularly for medical study. This research was performed to establish the validity evidence for measuring strength of motivation for medical school. Internal structure and relations to other variables were used as the sources of validity evidence. The SMMS questionnaire was filled out by 1,494 medical students in different years of medical curriculum. The validity evidence for the internal structure was analyzed by principal components analysis with promax rotation. Validity evidence for relations to other variables was tested by comparing the SMMS scores with scores on the Academic Motivation Scale (AMS) and the exhaustion scale of Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey (MBI-SS) for measuring study stress. Evidence for internal consistency was determined through the Cronbach's alpha for reliability. The analysis showed that the SMMS had a 3-factor structure. The validity in relations to other variables was established as both, the subscales and full scale scores significantly correlated positively with the intrinsic motivation scores and with the more autonomous forms of extrinsic motivation, the correlation decreasing and finally becoming negative towards the extrinsic motivation end of the spectrum. They also had significant negative correlations with amotivation scale of the AMS and exhaustion scale of MBI-SS. The Cronbach's alpha for reliability of the three subscales and full SMMS scores was 0.70, 0.67, 0.55 and 0.79. The strength of motivation for medical school has a three factor structure and acceptable validity evidence was found in our study.

  3. Geographic and temporal validity of prediction models: Different approaches were useful to examine model performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Austin (Peter); D. van Klaveren (David); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); D. Nieboer (Daan); D.S. Lee (Douglas); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjective: Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting: We

  4. Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Onland, Wes; Debray, Thomas P.; Laughon, Matthew M.; Miedema, Martijn; Cools, Filip; Askie, Lisa M.; Asselin, Jeanette M.; Calvert, Sandra A.; Courtney, Sherry E.; Dani, Carlo; Durand, David J.; Marlow, Neil; Peacock, Janet L.; Pillow, J. Jane; Soll, Roger F.; Thome, Ulrich H.; Truffert, Patrick; Schreiber, Michael D.; van Reempts, Patrick; Vendettuoli, Valentina; Vento, Giovanni; van Kaam, Anton H.; Moons, Karel G.; Offringa, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a common complication of preterm birth. Very different models using clinical parameters at an early postnatal age to predict BPD have been developed with little extensive quantitative validation. The objective of this study is to review and validate clinical

  5. A Cross-Validation Study of Police Recruit Performance as Predicted by the IPI and MMPI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shusman, Elizabeth J.; And Others

    Validation and cross-validation studies were conducted using the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) and Inwald Personality Inventory (IPI) to predict job performance for 698 urban male police officers who completed a six-month training academy. Job performance criteria evaluated included absence, lateness, derelictions, negative…

  6. Reliability and validity evidence of the Assessment of Language Use in Social Contexts for Adults (ALUSCA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Ana Rita S; Hall, Andreia; Alvelos, Helena; Leahy, Margaret; Jesus, Luis M T

    2018-04-12

    The appropriate use of language in context depends on the speaker's pragmatic language competencies. A coding system was used to develop a specific and adult-focused self-administered questionnaire to adults who stutter and adults who do not stutter, The Assessment of Language Use in Social Contexts for Adults, with three categories: precursors, basic exchanges, and extended literal/non-literal discourse. This paper presents the content validity, item analysis, reliability coefficients and evidences of construct validity of the instrument. Content validity analysis was based on a two-stage process: first, 11 pragmatic questionnaires were assessed to identify items that probe each pragmatic competency and to create the first version of the instrument; second, items were assessed qualitatively by an expert panel composed by adults who stutter and controls, and quantitatively and qualitatively by an expert panel composed by clinicians. A pilot study was conducted with five adults who stutter and five controls to analyse items and calculate reliability. Construct validity evidences were obtained using the hypothesized relationships method and factor analysis with 28 adults who stutter and 28 controls. Concerning content validity, the questionnaires assessed up to 13 pragmatic competencies. Qualitative and quantitative analysis revealed ambiguities in items construction. Disagreement between experts was solved through item modification. The pilot study showed that the instrument presented internal consistency and temporal stability. Significant differences between adults who stutter and controls and different response profiles revealed the instrument's underlying construct. The instrument is reliable and presented evidences of construct validity.

  7. Valid Probabilistic Predictions for Ginseng with Venn Machines Using Electronic Nose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You Wang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In the application of electronic noses (E-noses, probabilistic prediction is a good way to estimate how confident we are about our prediction. In this work, a homemade E-nose system embedded with 16 metal-oxide semi-conductive gas sensors was used to discriminate nine kinds of ginsengs of different species or production places. A flexible machine learning framework, Venn machine (VM was introduced to make probabilistic predictions for each prediction. Three Venn predictors were developed based on three classical probabilistic prediction methods (Platt’s method, Softmax regression and Naive Bayes. Three Venn predictors and three classical probabilistic prediction methods were compared in aspect of classification rate and especially the validity of estimated probability. A best classification rate of 88.57% was achieved with Platt’s method in offline mode, and the classification rate of VM-SVM (Venn machine based on Support Vector Machine was 86.35%, just 2.22% lower. The validity of Venn predictors performed better than that of corresponding classical probabilistic prediction methods. The validity of VM-SVM was superior to the other methods. The results demonstrated that Venn machine is a flexible tool to make precise and valid probabilistic prediction in the application of E-nose, and VM-SVM achieved the best performance for the probabilistic prediction of ginseng samples.

  8. Performance Prediction and Validation: Data, Frameworks, and Considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tinnesand, Heidi

    2017-05-19

    Improving the predictability and reliability of wind power generation and operations will reduce costs and potentially establish a framework to attract new capital into the distributed wind sector, a key cost reduction requirement highlighted in results from the distributed wind future market assessment conducted with dWind. Quantifying and refining the accuracy of project performance estimates will also directly address several of the key challenges identified by industry stakeholders in 2015 as part of the distributed wind resource assessment workshop and be cross-cutting for several other facets of the distributed wind portfolio. This presentation covers the efforts undertaken in 2016 to address these topics.

  9. A method for the statistical interpretation of friction ridge skin impression evidence: Method development and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swofford, H J; Koertner, A J; Zemp, F; Ausdemore, M; Liu, A; Salyards, M J

    2018-04-03

    The forensic fingerprint community has faced increasing amounts of criticism by scientific and legal commentators, challenging the validity and reliability of fingerprint evidence due to the lack of an empirically demonstrable basis to evaluate and report the strength of the evidence in a given case. This paper presents a method, developed as a stand-alone software application, FRStat, which provides a statistical assessment of the strength of fingerprint evidence. The performance was evaluated using a variety of mated and non-mated datasets. The results show strong performance characteristics, often with values supporting specificity rates greater than 99%. This method provides fingerprint experts the capability to demonstrate the validity and reliability of fingerprint evidence in a given case and report the findings in a more transparent and standardized fashion with clearly defined criteria for conclusions and known error rate information thereby responding to concerns raised by the scientific and legal communities. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. External Validation of a Prediction Model for Successful External Cephalic Version

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Kok, Marjolein; van der Steeg, Jan W.; Bais, Joke M.; Mol, Ben W.; van der Post, Joris A.

    2012-01-01

    We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a

  11. Experimental validation of the twins prediction program for rolling noise. Pt.2: results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thompson, D.J.; Fodiman, P.; Mahé, H.

    1996-01-01

    Two extensive measurement campaigns have been carried out to validate the TWINS prediction program for rolling noise, as described in part 1 of this paper. This second part presents the experimental results of vibration and noise during train pass-bys and compares them with predictions from the

  12. Validation of models that predict Cesarean section after induction of labor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, C. J. M.; Oudenaarden, A.; Hermus, M. A. A.; Porath, M. M.; Oei, S. G.; Mol, B. W. J.

    2009-01-01

    Objective Models for the prediction of Cesarean delivery after induction of labor can be used to improve clinical decision-making. The objective of this study was to validate two existing models, published by Peregrine et al. and Rane et al., for the prediction of Cesarean section after induction of

  13. Bayesian Calibration, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for Predictive Modelling of Tumour Growth: A Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collis, Joe; Connor, Anthony J; Paczkowski, Marcin; Kannan, Pavitra; Pitt-Francis, Joe; Byrne, Helen M; Hubbard, Matthew E

    2017-04-01

    In this work, we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example, we calibrate the model against experimental data that are subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model.

  14. Predicting the 6-month risk of severe hypoglycemia among adults with diabetes: Development and external validation of a prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Emily B; Xu, Stan; Goodrich, Glenn K; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

    2017-07-01

    To develop and externally validate a prediction model for the 6-month risk of a severe hypoglycemic event among individuals with pharmacologically treated diabetes. The development cohort consisted of 31,674 Kaiser Permanente Colorado members with pharmacologically treated diabetes (2007-2015). The validation cohorts consisted of 38,764 Kaiser Permanente Northwest members and 12,035 HealthPartners members. Variables were chosen that would be available in electronic health records. We developed 16-variable and 6-variable models, using a Cox counting model process that allows for the inclusion of multiple 6-month observation periods per person. Across the three cohorts, there were 850,992 6-month observation periods, and 10,448 periods with at least one severe hypoglycemic event. The six-variable model contained age, diabetes type, HgbA1c, eGFR, history of a hypoglycemic event in the prior year, and insulin use. Both prediction models performed well, with good calibration and c-statistics of 0.84 and 0.81 for the 16-variable and 6-variable models, respectively. In the external validation cohorts, the c-statistics were 0.80-0.84. We developed and validated two prediction models for predicting the 6-month risk of hypoglycemia. The 16-variable model had slightly better performance than the 6-variable model, but in some practice settings, use of the simpler model may be preferred. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Can preventable adverse events be predicted among hospitalized older patients? The development and validation of a predictive model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeg, L. van de; Langelaan, M.; Wagner, C.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To develop and validate a predictive model for preventable adverse events (AEs) in hospitalized older patients, using clinically important risk factors that are readily available on admission. Design: Data from two retrospective patient record review studies on AEs were used. Risk factors

  16. Validation of the online prediction tool PREDICT v. 2.0 in the Dutch breast cancer population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maaren, M.C. van; Steenbeek, C.D. van; Pharoah, P.D.; Witteveen, A.; Sonke, G.S.; Strobbe, L.J.A.; Poortmans, P.; Siesling, S.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: PREDICT version 2.0 is increasingly used to estimate prognosis in breast cancer. This study aimed to validate this tool in specific prognostic subgroups in the Netherlands. METHODS: All operated women with non-metastatic primary invasive breast cancer, diagnosed in 2005, were selected

  17. Validation of the online prediction tool PREDICT v. 2.0 in the Dutch breast cancer population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Maaren, M. C.; van Steenbeek, C. D.; Pharoah, P. D.P.; Witteveen, A.; Sonke, Gabe S.; Strobbe, L.J.A.; Poortmans, P.M.P.; Siesling, S.

    2017-01-01

    Background PREDICT version 2.0 is increasingly used to estimate prognosis in breast cancer. This study aimed to validate this tool in specific prognostic subgroups in the Netherlands. Methods All operated women with non-metastatic primary invasive breast cancer, diagnosed in 2005, were selected from

  18. Predicting interactions from mechanistic information: Can omic data validate theories?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgert, Christopher J.

    2007-01-01

    To address the most pressing and relevant issues for improving mixture risk assessment, researchers must first recognize that risk assessment is driven by both regulatory requirements and scientific research, and that regulatory concerns may expand beyond the purely scientific interests of researchers. Concepts of 'mode of action' and 'mechanism of action' are used in particular ways within the regulatory arena, depending on the specific assessment goals. The data requirements for delineating a mode of action and predicting interactive toxicity in mixtures are not well defined from a scientific standpoint due largely to inherent difficulties in testing certain underlying assumptions. Understanding the regulatory perspective on mechanistic concepts will be important for designing experiments that can be interpreted clearly and applied in risk assessments without undue reliance on extrapolation and assumption. In like fashion, regulators and risk assessors can be better equipped to apply mechanistic data if the concepts underlying mechanistic research and the limitations that must be placed on interpretation of mechanistic data are understood. This will be critically important for applying new technologies to risk assessment, such as functional genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics. It will be essential not only for risk assessors to become conversant with the language and concepts of mechanistic research, including new omic technologies, but also, for researchers to become more intimately familiar with the challenges and needs of risk assessment

  19. Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

    2014-09-01

    Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

  20. An Australian Version of the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale: Validity Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerin, Ester; Leslie, Eva; Owen, Neville; Bauman, Adrian

    2008-01-01

    This study examined validity evidence for the Australian version of the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS-AU). A stratified two-stage cluster sampling design was used to recruit 2,650 adults from Adelaide (Australia). The sample was drawn from residential addresses within eight high-walkable and eight low-walkable suburbs matched…

  1. Validity-Supporting Evidence of the Self-Efficacy for Teaching Mathematics Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Jennifer R.; Wang, Chuang

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide evidence of reliability and validity of the Self-Efficacy for Teaching Mathematics Instrument (SETMI). Self-efficacy, as defined by Bandura, was the theoretical framework for the development of the instrument. The complex belief systems of mathematics teachers, as touted by Ernest provided insights into the…

  2. Logic Brightens My Day: Evidence for Implicit Sensitivity to Logical Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trippas, Dries; Handley, Simon J.; Verde, Michael F.; Morsanyi, Kinga

    2016-01-01

    A key assumption of dual process theory is that reasoning is an explicit, effortful, deliberative process. The present study offers evidence for an implicit, possibly intuitive component of reasoning. Participants were shown sentences embedded in logically valid or invalid arguments. Participants were not asked to reason but instead rated the…

  3. A Brazilian Portuguese Survey of School Climate: Evidence of Validity and Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bear, George G.; Holst, Bruna; Lisboa, Carolina; Chen, Dandan; Yang, Chunyan; Chen, Fang Fang

    2016-01-01

    This study presents evidence of the validity and reliability of scores for the newly developed Brazilian Portuguese version of the Delaware School Climate Survey-Student (Brazilian DSCS-S). The sample consisted of 378 students, grades 5 through 9, attending four private and three public schools in southern Brazil. Confirmatory factor analyses…

  4. Validity Evidence for the Measurement of the Strength of Motivation for Medical School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusurkar, Rashmi; Croiset, Gerda; Kruitwagen, Cas; ten Cate, Olle

    2011-01-01

    The Strength of Motivation for Medical School (SMMS) questionnaire is designed to determine the strength of motivation of students particularly for medical study. This research was performed to establish the validity evidence for measuring strength of motivation for medical school. Internal structure and relations to other variables were used as…

  5. Measuring Students' Motivation: Validity Evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Brett D.; Skaggs, Gary

    2016-01-01

    This study provides validity evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory (MUSIC Inventory; Jones, 2012), which measures college students' beliefs related to the five components of the MUSIC Model of Motivation (MUSIC model; Jones, 2009). The MUSIC model is a conceptual framework for five categories of teaching strategies (i.e.,…

  6. Is the readmission rate a valid quality indicator? A review of the evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, Claudia; Lingsma, Hester F.; Marang-van de Mheen, Perla J.; Kringos, Dionne S.; Klazinga, Niek S.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

    2014-01-01

    Hospital readmission rates are increasingly used for both quality improvement and cost control. However, the validity of readmission rates as a measure of quality of hospital care is not evident. We aimed to give an overview of the different methodological aspects in the definition and measurement

  7. Validity Evidence for the Neuro-Endoscopic Ventriculostomy Assessment Tool (NEVAT)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breimer, Gerben E.; Haji, Faizal A.; Cinalli, Giuseppe; Hoving, Eelco W.; Drake, James M.

    BACKGROUND: Growing demand for transparent and standardized methods for evaluating surgical competence prompted the construction of the Neuro-Endoscopic Ventriculostomy Assessment Tool (NEVAT). OBJECTIVE: To provide validity evidence of the NEVAT by reporting on the tool's internal structure and its

  8. A Motor Speech Assessment for Children with Severe Speech Disorders: Reliability and Validity Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strand, Edythe A.; McCauley, Rebecca J.; Weigand, Stephen D.; Stoeckel, Ruth E.; Baas, Becky S.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: In this article, the authors report reliability and validity evidence for the Dynamic Evaluation of Motor Speech Skill (DEMSS), a new test that uses dynamic assessment to aid in the differential diagnosis of childhood apraxia of speech (CAS). Method: Participants were 81 children between 36 and 79 months of age who were referred to the…

  9. Validity of 'post-traumatic stress disorder with secondary psychotic features': a review of the evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braakman, M. H.; Kortmann, F. A. M.; van den Brink, W.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To review the evidence from empirical studies regarding the validity of 'post-traumatic stress disorder with secondary psychotic features' (PTSD-SP) as a separate diagnostic entity. METHOD: The authors performed a review tracing publications between 1980 and January 2008. RESULTS:

  10. Validity evidence of the Social and Emotional Nationwide Assessment (SENNA 1.0 Inventory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gina Pancorbo

    Full Text Available Abstract: Given the necessity of adequate instruments to measure socio-emotional skills, this study aimed to obtain validity evidence of the Social and Emotional Nationwide Assessment inventory (SENNA 1.0. The instrument was administered to a sample of 634 students (59% females with a mean age of 16.3 years (SD = 1.21, from eight secondary schools of the Federal District ] of Brazil. Exploratory factor analysis indicated a six factor structure that explained 42.7% of the common variance, while confirmatory factor analysis and exploratory structural equational modeling analysis showed a moderate fit to the data. Reliability coefficients of the factor scores varied between .66 and .89. The coefficients of the convergent validity with the Reduced Scale of the Big Five Personality Factors (ER5FP had a mean value of .59. In conclusion, the results indicate satisfactory evidence for the score validity of the SENNA 1.0 inventory.

  11. Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

    2018-03-01

    Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

  12. Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petticrew, Mark; Cummins, Steven; Sparks, Leigh; Findlay, Anne

    2007-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers

  13. Teamwork assessment in internal medicine: a systematic review of validity evidence and outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havyer, Rachel D A; Wingo, Majken T; Comfere, Nneka I; Nelson, Darlene R; Halvorsen, Andrew J; McDonald, Furman S; Reed, Darcy A

    2014-06-01

    Valid teamwork assessment is imperative to determine physician competency and optimize patient outcomes. We systematically reviewed published instruments assessing teamwork in undergraduate, graduate, and continuing medical education in general internal medicine and all medical subspecialties. We searched MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-process, CINAHL and PsycINFO from January 1979 through October 2012, references of included articles, and abstracts from four professional meetings. Two content experts were queried for additional studies. Included studies described quantitative tools measuring teamwork among medical students, residents, fellows, and practicing physicians on single or multi-professional (interprofessional) teams. Instrument validity and study quality were extracted using established frameworks with existing validity evidence. Two authors independently abstracted 30 % of articles and agreement was calculated. Of 12,922 citations, 178 articles describing 73 unique teamwork assessment tools met inclusion criteria. Interrater agreement was intraclass correlation coefficient 0.73 (95 % CI 0.63-0.81). Studies involved practicing physicians (142, 80 %), residents/fellows (70, 39 %), and medical students (11, 6 %). The majority (152, 85 %) assessed interprofessional teams. Studies were conducted in inpatient (77, 43 %), outpatient (42, 24 %), simulation (37, 21 %), and classroom (13, 7 %) settings. Validity evidence for the 73 tools included content (54, 74 %), internal structure (51, 70 %), relationships to other variables (25, 34 %), and response process (12, 16 %). Attitudes and opinions were the most frequently assessed outcomes. Relationships between teamwork scores and patient outcomes were directly examined for 13 (18 %) of tools. Scores from the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire and Team Climate Inventory have substantial validity evidence and have been associated with improved patient outcomes. Review is limited to quantitative assessments of teamwork in internal

  14. The behavioral regulation in sport questionnaire (BRSQ): instrument development and initial validity evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lonsdale, Chris; Hodge, Ken; Rose, Elaine A

    2008-06-01

    The purpose of the four studies described in this article was to develop and test a new measure of competitive sport participants' intrinsic motivation, extrinsic motivation, and amotivation (self-determination theory; Deci & Ryan, 1985). The items for the new measure, named the Behavioral Regulation in Sport Questionnaire (BRSQ), were constructed using interviews, expert review, and pilot testing. Analyses supported the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and factorial validity of the BRSQ scores. Nomological validity evidence was also supportive, as BRSQ subscale scores were correlated in the expected pattern with scores derived from measures of motivational consequences. When directly compared with scores derived from the Sport Motivation Scale (SMS; Pelletier, Fortier, Vallerand, Tuson, & Blais, 1995) and a revised version of that questionnaire (SMS-6; Mallett, Kawabata, Newcombe, Otero-Forero, & Jackson, 2007), BRSQ scores demonstrated equal or superior reliability and factorial validity as well as better nomological validity.

  15. Ethical leadership: meta-analytic evidence of criterion-related and incremental validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Thomas W H; Feldman, Daniel C

    2015-05-01

    This study examines the criterion-related and incremental validity of ethical leadership (EL) with meta-analytic data. Across 101 samples published over the last 15 years (N = 29,620), we observed that EL demonstrated acceptable criterion-related validity with variables that tap followers' job attitudes, job performance, and evaluations of their leaders. Further, followers' trust in the leader mediated the relationships of EL with job attitudes and performance. In terms of incremental validity, we found that EL significantly, albeit weakly in some cases, predicted task performance, citizenship behavior, and counterproductive work behavior-even after controlling for the effects of such variables as transformational leadership, use of contingent rewards, management by exception, interactional fairness, and destructive leadership. The article concludes with a discussion of ways to strengthen the incremental validity of EL. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. External validation of multivariable prediction models: a systematic review of methodological conduct and reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures. Results 11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models. Conclusions The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling

  17. Validation of new prognostic and predictive scores by sequential testing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieder, Carsten; Haukland, Ellinor; Pawinski, Adam; Dalhaug, Astrid

    2010-01-01

    Background and Purpose: For practitioners, the question arises how their own patient population differs from that used in large-scale analyses resulting in new scores and nomograms and whether such tools actually are valid at a local level and thus can be implemented. A recent article proposed an easy-to-use method for the in-clinic validation of new prediction tools with a limited number of patients, a so-called sequential testing approach. The present study evaluates this approach in scores related to radiation oncology. Material and Methods: Three different scores were used, each predicting short overall survival after palliative radiotherapy (bone metastases, brain metastases, metastatic spinal cord compression). For each scenario, a limited number of consecutive patients entered the sequential testing approach. The positive predictive value (PPV) was used for validation of the respective score and it was required that the PPV exceeded 80%. Results: For two scores, validity in the own local patient population could be confirmed after entering 13 and 17 patients, respectively. For the third score, no decision could be reached even after increasing the sample size to 30. Conclusion: In-clinic validation of new predictive tools with sequential testing approach should be preferred over uncritical adoption of tools which provide no significant benefit to local patient populations. Often the necessary number of patients can be reached within reasonable time frames even in small oncology practices. In addition, validation is performed continuously as the data are collected. (orig.)

  18. Validation of new prognostic and predictive scores by sequential testing approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieder, Carsten [Radiation Oncology Unit, Nordland Hospital, Bodo (Norway); Inst. of Clinical Medicine, Univ. of Tromso (Norway); Haukland, Ellinor; Pawinski, Adam; Dalhaug, Astrid [Radiation Oncology Unit, Nordland Hospital, Bodo (Norway)

    2010-03-15

    Background and Purpose: For practitioners, the question arises how their own patient population differs from that used in large-scale analyses resulting in new scores and nomograms and whether such tools actually are valid at a local level and thus can be implemented. A recent article proposed an easy-to-use method for the in-clinic validation of new prediction tools with a limited number of patients, a so-called sequential testing approach. The present study evaluates this approach in scores related to radiation oncology. Material and Methods: Three different scores were used, each predicting short overall survival after palliative radiotherapy (bone metastases, brain metastases, metastatic spinal cord compression). For each scenario, a limited number of consecutive patients entered the sequential testing approach. The positive predictive value (PPV) was used for validation of the respective score and it was required that the PPV exceeded 80%. Results: For two scores, validity in the own local patient population could be confirmed after entering 13 and 17 patients, respectively. For the third score, no decision could be reached even after increasing the sample size to 30. Conclusion: In-clinic validation of new predictive tools with sequential testing approach should be preferred over uncritical adoption of tools which provide no significant benefit to local patient populations. Often the necessary number of patients can be reached within reasonable time frames even in small oncology practices. In addition, validation is performed continuously as the data are collected. (orig.)

  19. Predictive validity of the comprehensive basic science examination mean score for assessment of medical students' performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firouz Behboudi

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Background Medical education curriculum improvements can be achieved bye valuating students performance. Medical students have to pass two undergraduate comprehensive examinations, basic science and preinternship, in Iran. Purpose To measure validity of the students' mean score in comprehensive basic science exam (CBSE for predicting their performance in later curriculum phases. Methods This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on 95 (38 women and 55 men Guilan medical university students. Their admission to the university was 81% by regional quota and 12% by shaheed and other organizations' share. They first enrolled in 1994 and were able to pass CBS£ at first try. Data on gender, regional quota, and average grades of CBS£, PC, and CPIE were collected by a questionnaire. The calculations were done by SPSS package. Results The correlation coefficient between CBS£ and CPIE mean scores (0.65 was higher than correlation coefficient between CBS£ and PC mean scores (0.49. The predictive validity of CBS£ average grade was significant for students' performance in CPIE; however, the predictive validity of CBSE mean scores for students I pe1jormance in PC was lower. Conclusion he students' mean score in CBSE can be a good denominator for their further admission. We recommend further research to assess the predictive validity for each one of the basic courses. Keywords predictive validity, comprehensive basic exam

  20. What's next? New evidence for prediction in human vision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enns, James T; Lleras, Alejandro

    2008-09-01

    Everyday visual experience involves making implicit predictions, as revealed by our surprise when something disturbs our expectations. Many theories of vision have been premised on the central role played by prediction. Yet, implicit prediction in human vision has been difficult to assess in the laboratory, and many results have not distinguished between the indisputably important role of memory and the future-oriented aspect of prediction. Now, a new and unexpected finding - that humans can resume an interrupted visual search much faster than they can start a new search - offers new hope, because the rapid resumption of a search seems to depend on participants forming an implicit prediction of what they will see after the interruption. These findings combined with results of recent neurophysiology studies provide a framework for studying implicit prediction in perception.

  1. Predictive validity of the GOSLON Yardstick index in patients with unilateral cleft lip and palate: A systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cindy Buj-Acosta

    Full Text Available Among the various indices developed for measuring the results of treatment in patients born with unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP, the GOSLON Yardstick index is the most widely used to assess the efficacy of treatment and treatment outcomes, which in UCLP cases are closely linked to jaw growth. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to validate the predictability of growth using the GOSLON Yardstick in patients born with UCLP. A systematic literature review was conducted in four Internet databases: Medline, Cochrane Library, Scopus and Embase, complemented by a manual search and a further search in the databases of the leading journals that focus on this topic. An electronic search was also conducted among grey literature. The search identified a total of 131 articles. Duplicated articles were excluded and after reading titles and abstracts, any articles not related to the research objective were excluded, leaving a total of 21 texts. After reading the complete text, only three articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The results showed a predictive validity of between 42.2% and 64.7%, which points to a lack of evidence in the literature for the predictive validity of the GOSLON Yardstick index used in children born with UCLP.

  2. Predictive value and construct validity of the work functioning screener-healthcare (WFS-H)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boezeman, Edwin J.; Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Sluiter, Judith K.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: To test the predictive value and convergent construct validity of a 6-item work functioning screener (WFS-H). Methods: Healthcare workers (249 nurses) completed a questionnaire containing the work functioning screener (WFS-H) and a work functioning instrument (NWFQ) measuring the following: cognitive aspects of task execution and general incidents, avoidance behavior, conflicts and irritation with colleagues, impaired contact with patients and their family, and level of energy and motivation. Productivity and mental health were also measured. Negative and positive predictive values, AUC values, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated to examine the predictive value of the screener. Correlation analysis was used to examine the construct validity. Results: The screener had good predictive value, since the results showed that a negative screener score is a strong indicator of work functioning not hindered by mental health problems (negative predictive values: 94%-98%; positive predictive values: 21%-36%; AUC:.64-.82; sensitivity: 42%-76%; and specificity 85%-87%). The screener has good construct validity due to moderate, but significant (pvalue and good construct validity. Its score offers occupational health professionals a helpful preliminary insight into the work functioning of healthcare workers. PMID:27010085

  3. Predictive value and construct validity of the work functioning screener-healthcare (WFS-H).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boezeman, Edwin J; Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Sluiter, Judith K

    2016-05-25

    To test the predictive value and convergent construct validity of a 6-item work functioning screener (WFS-H). Healthcare workers (249 nurses) completed a questionnaire containing the work functioning screener (WFS-H) and a work functioning instrument (NWFQ) measuring the following: cognitive aspects of task execution and general incidents, avoidance behavior, conflicts and irritation with colleagues, impaired contact with patients and their family, and level of energy and motivation. Productivity and mental health were also measured. Negative and positive predictive values, AUC values, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated to examine the predictive value of the screener. Correlation analysis was used to examine the construct validity. The screener had good predictive value, since the results showed that a negative screener score is a strong indicator of work functioning not hindered by mental health problems (negative predictive values: 94%-98%; positive predictive values: 21%-36%; AUC:.64-.82; sensitivity: 42%-76%; and specificity 85%-87%). The screener has good construct validity due to moderate, but significant (ppredictive value and good construct validity. Its score offers occupational health professionals a helpful preliminary insight into the work functioning of healthcare workers.

  4. Development and validation of a predictive model for excessive postpartum blood loss: A retrospective, cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio-Álvarez, Ana; Molina-Alarcón, Milagros; Arias-Arias, Ángel; Hernández-Martínez, Antonio

    2018-03-01

    postpartum haemorrhage is one of the leading causes of maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite the use of uterotonics agents as preventive measure, it remains a challenge to identify those women who are at increased risk of postpartum bleeding. to develop and to validate a predictive model to assess the risk of excessive bleeding in women with vaginal birth. retrospective cohorts study. "Mancha-Centro Hospital" (Spain). the elaboration of the predictive model was based on a derivation cohort consisting of 2336 women between 2009 and 2011. For validation purposes, a prospective cohort of 953 women between 2013 and 2014 were employed. Women with antenatal fetal demise, multiple pregnancies and gestations under 35 weeks were excluded METHODS: we used a multivariate analysis with binary logistic regression, Ridge Regression and areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to determine the predictive ability of the proposed model. there was 197 (8.43%) women with excessive bleeding in the derivation cohort and 63 (6.61%) women in the validation cohort. Predictive factors in the final model were: maternal age, primiparity, duration of the first and second stages of labour, neonatal birth weight and antepartum haemoglobin levels. Accordingly, the predictive ability of this model in the derivation cohort was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.93), while it remained 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.92) in the validation cohort. this predictive model is proved to have an excellent predictive ability in the derivation cohort, and its validation in a latter population equally shows a good ability for prediction. This model can be employed to identify women with a higher risk of postpartum haemorrhage. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Regional variation in the predictive validity of self-rated health for mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Berchick

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Self-rated health (SRH is a commonly used measure for assessing general health in surveys in the United States. However, individuals from different parts of the United States may vary in how they assess their health. Geographic differences in health care access and in the prevalence of illnesses may make it difficult to discern true regional differences in health when using SRH as a health measure. In this article, we use data from the 1986 and 1989–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files and estimate Cox regression models to examine whether the relationship between SRH and five-year all-cause mortality differs by Census region. Contrary to hypotheses, there is no evidence of regional variation in the predictive validity of SRH for mortality. At all levels of SRH, and for both non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black respondents, SRH is equally and strongly associated with five-year mortality across regions. Our results suggest that differences in SRH across regions are not solely due to differences in how respondents assess their health across regions, but reflect true differences in health. Future research can, therefore, employ this common measure to investigate the geographic patterning of health in the United States.

  6. Collecting Validity Evidence for Simulation-Based Assessment of Point-of-Care Ultrasound Skills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jesper Kørup; Dyre, Liv; Jørgensen, Mattis Enggaard

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the validity of a simulator test designed to evaluate focused assessment with sonography for trauma (FAST) skills. METHODS: Participants included a group of ultrasound novices (n = 25) and ultrasound experts (n = 10). All participants had their FAST...... skills assessed using a virtual reality ultrasound simulator. Procedural performance on the 4 FAST windows was assessed by automated simulator metrics, which received a passing or failing score. The validity evidence for these simulator metrics was examined by a stepwise approach according...

  7. Prediction of dissolved reactive phosphorus losses from small agricultural catchments: calibration and validation of a parsimonious model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hahn

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Eutrophication of surface waters due to diffuse phosphorus (P losses continues to be a severe water quality problem worldwide, causing the loss of ecosystem functions of the respective water bodies. Phosphorus in runoff often originates from a small fraction of a catchment only. Targeting mitigation measures to these critical source areas (CSAs is expected to be most efficient and cost-effective, but requires suitable tools. Here we investigated the capability of the parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff-Phosphorus (RRP model to identify CSAs in grassland-dominated catchments based on readily available soil and topographic data. After simultaneous calibration on runoff data from four small hilly catchments on the Swiss Plateau, the model was validated on a different catchment in the same region without further calibration. The RRP model adequately simulated the discharge and dissolved reactive P (DRP export from the validation catchment. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model predictions were robust with respect to the classification of soils into "poorly drained" and "well drained", based on the available soil map. Comparing spatial hydrological model predictions with field data from the validation catchment provided further evidence that the assumptions underlying the model are valid and that the model adequately accounts for the dominant P export processes in the target region. Thus, the parsimonious RRP model is a valuable tool that can be used to determine CSAs. Despite the considerable predictive uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of CSAs, the RRP can provide guidance for the implementation of mitigation measures. The model helps to identify those parts of a catchment where high DRP losses are expected or can be excluded with high confidence. Legacy P was predicted to be the dominant source for DRP losses and thus, in combination with hydrologic active areas, a high risk for water quality.

  8. Validation and Inter-comparison Against Observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, J.; Davidson, F. J. M.; Smith, G. C.; Lu, Y.; Hernandez, F.; Regnier, C.; Drevillon, M.; Ryan, A.; Martin, M.; Spindler, T. D.; Brassington, G. B.; Oke, P. R.

    2016-02-01

    For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well as by the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the same level of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present results from a validation against observations of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Systems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems include the Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, two systems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAM system from UK met office, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Australian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau and the Australian Navy.The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature, sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and sea ice total concentration data. Results of the inter-comparison demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. This work establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developed under the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for operations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over the next two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system and limited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparing forecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics. It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommended to JCOMM-WMO as routine validation approach for operational oceanography worldwide.

  9. The predictive validity of ideal partner preferences: a review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwick, Paul W; Luchies, Laura B; Finkel, Eli J; Hunt, Lucy L

    2014-05-01

    A central element of interdependence theory is that people have standards against which they compare their current outcomes, and one ubiquitous standard in the mating domain is the preference for particular attributes in a partner (ideal partner preferences). This article reviews research on the predictive validity of ideal partner preferences and presents a new integrative model that highlights when and why ideals succeed or fail to predict relational outcomes. Section 1 examines predictive validity by reviewing research on sex differences in the preference for physical attractiveness and earning prospects. Men and women reliably differ in the extent to which these qualities affect their romantic evaluations of hypothetical targets. Yet a new meta-analysis spanning the attraction and relationships literatures (k = 97) revealed that physical attractiveness predicted romantic evaluations with a moderate-to-strong effect size (r = ∼.40) for both sexes, and earning prospects predicted romantic evaluations with a small effect size (r = ∼.10) for both sexes. Sex differences in the correlations were small (r difference = .03) and uniformly nonsignificant. Section 2 reviews research on individual differences in ideal partner preferences, drawing from several theoretical traditions to explain why ideals predict relational evaluations at different relationship stages. Furthermore, this literature also identifies alternative measures of ideal partner preferences that have stronger predictive validity in certain theoretically sensible contexts. Finally, a discussion highlights a new framework for conceptualizing the appeal of traits, the difference between live and hypothetical interactions, and the productive interplay between mating research and broader psychological theories.

  10. Validity Evidence for the Reduced Version of the Young Parenting Inventory (YPI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Valentini

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available To gain more insight in family processes, psychometrically tests are required. The present study aimed to adapt a reduced version of the Young Parenting Inventory (YPI to the Portuguese language and to obtain evidence of its validity. The instrument was administered to a sample of 920 persons (59% female with an average age of 21.3 years. Exploratory factor analysis indicated the existence of five factors explaining approximately 45% of the variance. Confirmatory factor analysis showed fit indices above.80. In comparison with other models, the five factor model showed a better fit to the data. Between the YPI and Familiograma (another test of family processes moderate correlations were observed. The results of this study suggest satisfactory evidence of the validity for the YPI in Brazil.

  11. Evidences of validity and reliability of the Luria-Nebraska Test for Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Franco de Lima

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper aimed to verify evidences of validity and reliability of Luria-Nebraska Test for Children (TLN-C, in Portuguese. Three hundred eighty-seven students aged 6–13 years old, with learning difficulties, comprised the study. They were assessed with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-III and TLN-C; and effect of age differences, as well as accuracy rating by internal consistency were investigated. Age effects were found for all subtests and in the general score, except for receptive speech subtest, even when total IQ effect was controlled. Reliability analysis had satisfactory results (0.79. The TLN-C showed evidences of validity and reliability. Receptive speech subtest requires revision.

  12. Cheating Admission Self Report Scale: Evidence of Factorial Validity and Precision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdiney Veloso Gouveia

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to adapt the Cheating Admission Self Report Scale (CASRSto the Brazilian context and collect evi-dence on factorial validity and internal consistency. 441 students participated (M=16 years, 54.6% females, randomly divided in two groups. All responded to CASRS and to demographic questions. The analysis of the main components demonstrated a bifactor structure, whose factors presented Cronbach’s alphas (α greater than .80 (G1. This structure was corroborated by means of confirmatory factor analysis (for example, CFI=.87 and RMSEA=.08. The scale was shown to be psychometrically adequate and there was evidence of factorial validity and internal consistency; the scale can be used to measure plagiarism in the academic context.

  13. Genomic Prediction in Animals and Plants: Simulation of Data, Validation, Reporting, and Benchmarking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daetwyler, Hans D.; Calus, Mario P. L.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; de los Campos, Gustavo; Hickey, John M.

    2013-01-01

    The genomic prediction of phenotypes and breeding values in animals and plants has developed rapidly into its own research field. Results of genomic prediction studies are often difficult to compare because data simulation varies, real or simulated data are not fully described, and not all relevant results are reported. In addition, some new methods have been compared only in limited genetic architectures, leading to potentially misleading conclusions. In this article we review simulation procedures, discuss validation and reporting of results, and apply benchmark procedures for a variety of genomic prediction methods in simulated and real example data. Plant and animal breeding programs are being transformed by the use of genomic data, which are becoming widely available and cost-effective to predict genetic merit. A large number of genomic prediction studies have been published using both simulated and real data. The relative novelty of this area of research has made the development of scientific conventions difficult with regard to description of the real data, simulation of genomes, validation and reporting of results, and forward in time methods. In this review article we discuss the generation of simulated genotype and phenotype data, using approaches such as the coalescent and forward in time simulation. We outline ways to validate simulated data and genomic prediction results, including cross-validation. The accuracy and bias of genomic prediction are highlighted as performance indicators that should be reported. We suggest that a measure of relatedness between the reference and validation individuals be reported, as its impact on the accuracy of genomic prediction is substantial. A large number of methods were compared in example simulated and real (pine and wheat) data sets, all of which are publicly available. In our limited simulations, most methods performed similarly in traits with a large number of quantitative trait loci (QTL), whereas in traits

  14. Recent evidence of the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis for Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Komain Jiranyakul

    2010-01-01

    Numerous empirical studies have devoted to analyze the role of exports in the growth process. This paper examines the relationship between real exports and real GDP in Thailand using quarterly data from 1993 to 2008. The results from the bounds testing for cointegration in a multivariate framework show that there is evidence of the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis, even though some previous studies that used Thailand data reject it. There exists the long-run causation running from...

  15. Prediction of flow in mix-proof valve by use of CFD - Validation by LDA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bo Boye Busk; Friis, Alan

    2004-01-01

    was done on a spherical shaped mix-proof valve (MPV). Flow were predicted by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and validated by data obtained from experiments using laser sheet visualization and laser Doppler anemometry. Correction of the measured velocities and probe location was required as refraction......-wall region is shown. Fully 3D flow patterns were identified and valuable information was obtained for further investigations concerning prediction of cleanability in the MPV based on knowledge of the hydrodynamics herein....

  16. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

    2018-05-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  17. Criminal profiling as expert witness evidence: The implications of the profiler validity research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocsis, Richard N; Palermo, George B

    The use and development of the investigative tool colloquially known as criminal profiling has steadily increased over the past five decades throughout the world. Coupled with this growth has been a diversification in the suggested range of applications for this technique. Possibly the most notable of these has been the attempted transition of the technique from a tool intended to assist police investigations into a form of expert witness evidence admissible in legal proceedings. Whilst case law in various jurisdictions has considered with mutual disinclination the evidentiary admissibility of criminal profiling, a disjunction has evolved between these judicial examinations and the scientifically vetted research testing the accuracy (i.e., validity) of the technique. This article offers an analysis of the research directly testing the validity of the criminal profiling technique and the extant legal principles considering its evidentiary admissibility. This analysis reveals that research findings concerning the validity of criminal profiling are surprisingly compatible with the extant legal principles. The overall conclusion is that a discrete form of crime behavioural analysis is supported by the profiler validity research and could be regarded as potentially admissible expert witness evidence. Finally, a number of theoretical connections are also identified concerning the skills and qualifications of individuals who may feasibly provide such expert testimony. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Validity evidence of non-technical skills assessment instruments in simulated anaesthesia crisis management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jirativanont, T; Raksamani, K; Aroonpruksakul, N; Apidechakul, P; Suraseranivongse, S

    2017-07-01

    We sought to evaluate the validity of two non-technical skills evaluation instruments, the Anaesthetists' Non-Technical Skills (ANTS) behavioural marker system and the Ottawa Global Rating Scale (GRS), to apply them to anaesthesia training. The content validity, response process, internal structure, relations with other variables and consequences were described for validity evidence. Simulated crisis management sessions were initiated during which two trained raters evaluated the performance of postgraduate first-, second- and third-year (PGY-1, PGY-2 and PGY-3) anaesthesia residents. The study included 70 participants, composed of 24 PGY-1, 24 PGY-2 and 22 PGY-3 residents. Both instruments differentiated the non-technical skills of PGY-1 from PGY-3 residents ( P skills were 0.86, 0.83, 0.84, 0.87, 0.80 and 0.86, respectively. The Cronbach's alpha for internal consistency of the ANTS instrument was 0.93, and was 0.96 for the Ottawa GRS. There was a high correlation between the ANTS and Ottawa GRS. The raters reported the ease of use of the Ottawa GRS compared to the ANTS. We found sufficient evidence of validity in the ANTS instrument and the Ottawa GRS for the evaluation of non-technical skills in a simulated anaesthesia setting, but the Ottawa GRS was more practical and had higher reliability.

  19. A Multi-Center Prospective Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for Severe Clostridium difficile Infection.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Na, Xi

    2015-04-23

    Prediction of severe clinical outcomes in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is important to inform management decisions for optimum patient care. Currently, treatment recommendations for CDI vary based on disease severity but validated methods to predict severe disease are lacking. The aim of the study was to derive and validate a clinical prediction tool for severe outcomes in CDI.

  20. The predictive and external validity of the STarT Back Tool in Danish primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsø, Lars; Kent, Peter; Albert, Hanne B; Hill, Jonathan C; Kongsted, Alice; Manniche, Claus

    2013-08-01

    The STarT Back Tool (SBT) was recently translated into Danish and its concurrent validity described. This study tested the predictive validity of the Danish SBT. Danish primary care patients (n = 344) were compared to a UK cohort. SBT subgroup validity for predicting high activity limitation at 3 months' follow-up was assessed using descriptive proportions, relative risks, AUC and odds ratios. The SBT had a statistically similar predictive ability in Danish primary care as in UK primary care. Unadjusted relative risks for poor clinical outcome on activity limitation in the Danish cohort were 2.4 (1.7-3.4) for the medium-risk subgroup and 2.8 (1.8-3.8) for the high-risk subgroup versus 3.1 (2.5-3.9) and 4.5 (3.6-5.6) for the UK cohort. Adjusting for confounders appeared to explain the lower predictive ability of the Danish high-risk group. The Danish SBT distinguished between low- and medium-risk subgroups with a similar predictive ability of the UK SBT. That distinction is useful information for informing patients about their expected prognosis and may help guiding clinicians' choice of treatment. However, cross-cultural differences in the SBT psychosocial subscale may reduce the predictive ability of the high-risk subgroup in Danish primary care.

  1. Predicting survival of de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asian women: systematic review and validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Hui; Hartman, Mikael; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala; Lee, Soo-Chin; Taib, Nur Aishah; Tan, Ern-Yu; Chan, Patrick; Moons, Karel G M; Wong, Hoong-Seam; Goh, Jeremy; Rahim, Siti Mastura; Yip, Cheng-Har; Verkooijen, Helena M

    2014-01-01

    In Asia, up to 25% of breast cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. Given the heterogeneous survival probabilities of de novo metastatic breast cancer, individual outcome prediction is challenging. The aim of the study is to identify existing prognostic models for patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer and validate them in Asia. We performed a systematic review to identify prediction models for metastatic breast cancer. Models were validated in 642 women with de novo metastatic breast cancer registered between 2000 and 2010 in the Singapore Malaysia Hospital Based Breast Cancer Registry. Survival curves for low, intermediate and high-risk groups according to each prognostic score were compared by log-rank test and discrimination of the models was assessed by concordance statistic (C-statistic). We identified 16 prediction models, seven of which were for patients with brain metastases only. Performance status, estrogen receptor status, metastatic site(s) and disease-free interval were the most common predictors. We were able to validate nine prediction models. The capacity of the models to discriminate between poor and good survivors varied from poor to fair with C-statistics ranging from 0.50 (95% CI, 0.48-0.53) to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.66). The discriminatory performance of existing prediction models for de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asia is modest. Development of an Asian-specific prediction model is needed to improve prognostication and guide decision making.

  2. Validity Evidence for the Neuro-Endoscopic Ventriculostomy Assessment Tool (NEVAT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breimer, Gerben E; Haji, Faizal A; Cinalli, Giuseppe; Hoving, Eelco W; Drake, James M

    2017-02-01

    Growing demand for transparent and standardized methods for evaluating surgical competence prompted the construction of the Neuro-Endoscopic Ventriculostomy Assessment Tool (NEVAT). To provide validity evidence of the NEVAT by reporting on the tool's internal structure and its relationship with surgical expertise during simulation-based training. The NEVAT was used to assess performance of trainees and faculty at an international neuroendoscopy workshop. All participants performed an endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) on a synthetic simulator. Participants were simultaneously scored by 2 raters using the NEVAT procedural checklist and global rating scale (GRS). Evidence of internal structure was collected by calculating interrater reliability and internal consistency of raters' scores. Evidence of relationships with other variables was collected by comparing the ETV performance of experts, experienced trainees, and novices using Jonckheere's test (evidence of construct validity). Thirteen experts, 11 experienced trainees, and 10 novices participated. The interrater reliability by the intraclass correlation coefficient for the checklist and GRS was 0.82 and 0.94, respectively. Internal consistency (Cronbach's α) for the checklist and the GRS was 0.74 and 0.97, respectively. Median scores with interquartile range on the checklist and GRS for novices, experienced trainees, and experts were 0.69 (0.58-0.86), 0.85 (0.63-0.89), and 0.85 (0.81-0.91) and 3.1 (2.5-3.8), 3.7 (2.2-4.3) and 4.6 (4.4-4.9), respectively. Jonckheere's test showed that the median checklist and GRS score increased with performer expertise ( P = .04 and .002, respectively). This study provides validity evidence for the NEVAT to support its use as a standardized method of evaluating neuroendoscopic competence during simulation-based training. Copyright © 2016 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

  3. Predicting AKI in emergency admissions: an external validation study of the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, L E; Dimitrov, B D; Roderick, P J; Venn, R; Forni, L G

    2017-03-08

    Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is associated with a high risk of mortality. Prediction models or rules may identify those most at risk of HA-AKI. This study externally validated one of the few clinical prediction rules (CPRs) derived in a general medicine cohort using clinical information and data from an acute hospitals electronic system on admission: the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS). External validation in a single UK non-specialist acute hospital (2013-2015, 12 554 episodes); four cohorts: adult medical and general surgical populations, with and without a known preadmission baseline serum creatinine (SCr). Performance assessed by discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCROC) and calibration. HA-AKI incidence within 7 days (kidney disease: improving global outcomes (KDIGO) change in SCr) was 8.1% (n=409) of medical patients with known baseline SCr, 6.6% (n=141) in those without a baseline, 4.9% (n=204) in surgical patients with baseline and 4% (n=49) in those without. Across the four cohorts AUCROC were: medical with known baseline 0.65 (95% CIs 0.62 to 0.67) and no baseline 0.71 (0.67 to 0.75), surgical with baseline 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) and no baseline 0.68 (0.58 to 0.75). For calibration, in medicine and surgical cohorts with baseline SCr, Hosmer-Lemeshow p values were non-significant, suggesting acceptable calibration. In the medical cohort, at a cut-off of five points on the APS to predict HA-AKI, positive predictive value was 16% (13-18%) and negative predictive value 94% (93-94%). Of medical patients with HA-AKI, those with an APS ≥5 had a significantly increased risk of death (28% vs 18%, OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.9), p=0.015). On external validation the APS on admission shows moderate discrimination and acceptable calibration to predict HA-AKI and may be useful as a severity marker when HA-AKI occurs. Harnessing linked data from primary care may be one way to achieve more accurate

  4. Development and validation of a predictive equation for lean body mass in children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Bethany J; Platt, Robert W; Zemel, Babette S

    2012-05-01

    Lean body mass (LBM) is not easy to measure directly in the field or clinical setting. Equations to predict LBM from simple anthropometric measures, which account for the differing contributions of fat and lean to body weight at different ages and levels of adiposity, would be useful to both human biologists and clinicians. To develop and validate equations to predict LBM in children and adolescents across the entire range of the adiposity spectrum. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure LBM in 836 healthy children (437 females) and linear regression was used to develop sex-specific equations to estimate LBM from height, weight, age, body mass index (BMI) for age z-score and population ancestry. Equations were validated using bootstrapping methods and in a local independent sample of 332 children and in national data collected by NHANES. The mean difference between measured and predicted LBM was - 0.12% (95% limits of agreement - 11.3% to 8.5%) for males and - 0.14% ( - 11.9% to 10.9%) for females. Equations performed equally well across the entire adiposity spectrum, as estimated by BMI z-score. Validation indicated no over-fitting. LBM was predicted within 5% of measured LBM in the validation sample. The equations estimate LBM accurately from simple anthropometric measures.

  5. The Predictive Validity of CBM Writing Indices for Eighth-Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Janelle M.; Watkins, Marley W.

    2011-01-01

    Curriculum-based measurement (CBM) is an alternative to traditional assessment techniques. Technical work has begun to identify CBM writing indices that are psychometrically sound for monitoring older students' writing proficiency. This study examined the predictive validity of CBM writing indices in a sample of 447 eighth-grade students.…

  6. A predictive validity study of the Learning Style Questionnaire (LSQ) using multiple, specific learning criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappe, F.R.; Boekholt, L.; den Rooyen, C.; van der Flier, H.

    2009-01-01

    Multiple and specific learning criteria were used to examine the predictive validity of the Learning Style Questionnaire (LSQ). Ninety-nine students in a college of higher learning in The Netherlands participated in a naturally occurring field study. The students were categorized into one of four

  7. Validation of lactate clearance at 6 h for mortality prediction in critically ill children

    OpenAIRE

    Rajeev Kumar; Nirmal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims: To validate the lactate clearance (LC) at 6 h for mortality prediction in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU)-admitted patients and its comparison with a pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM 2) score. Design: A prospective, observational study in a tertiary care center. Materials and Methods: Children

  8. Validity of the Optometry Admission Test in Predicting Performance in Schools and Colleges of Optometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Gene A.; Johnston, JoElle

    1997-01-01

    A study examined the relationship between Optometry Admission Test scores and pre-optometry or undergraduate grade point average (GPA) with first and second year performance in optometry schools. The test's predictive validity was limited but significant, and comparable to those reported for other admission tests. In addition, the scores…

  9. Multilevel Assessment of the Predictive Validity of Teacher Made Tests in the Zimbabwean Primary Education Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machingambi, Zadzisai

    2017-01-01

    The principal focus of this study was to undertake a multilevel assessment of the predictive validity of teacher made tests in the Zimbabwean primary education sector. A correlational research design was adopted for the study, mainly to allow for statistical treatment of data and subsequent classical hypotheses testing using the spearman's rho.…

  10. Development and validation of a digital work simulation to predict workplace deviance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dubbelt, L.; Oostrom, J.K.; drs. Hiemstra, A.M.F.; Modderman, J.P.L.

    2015-01-01

    ”This paper describes a new and innovative measure that is developed to predict workplace deviance through the measurement of Machiavellianism and Compliant Behavior. Two field studies were conducted to study the validity of the digital work simulation. In Study 1, (N = 113) support was found for

  11. A Parsimonious Instrument for Predicting Students' Intent to Pursue a Sales Career: Scale Development and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, James W.; Cummins, Shannon; Pomirleanu, Nadia; Cross, James; Simon, Rob

    2014-01-01

    Students' desire and intention to pursue a career in sales continue to lag behind industry demand for sales professionals. This article develops and validates a reliable and parsimonious scale for measuring and predicting student intention to pursue a selling career. The instrument advances previous scales in three ways. The instrument is…

  12. Predictive validity of proposed remission criteria in first-episode schizophrenic patients responding to antipsychotics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wunderink, Lex; Nienhuis, Fokko J.; Sytema, Sjoerd; Wiersma, Durk

    The objective of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the remission criteria proposed by Andreasen et all in first-episode patients responding to antipsychotics. Antipsychotic responsive patients with first-episode schizophrenia showing symptom remission (n = 60) were compared with

  13. Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

  14. Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

  15. Predictive Validity of Early Literacy Measures for Korean English Language Learners in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jeanie Nam; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of early literacy measures with first-grade Korean English language learners (ELLs) in the United States at varying levels of English proficiency. Participants were screened using Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) Phoneme Segmentation Fluency (PSF), DIBELS Nonsense Word Fluency…

  16. Predictive Validity and Accuracy of Oral Reading Fluency for English Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderwood, Michael L.; Tung, Catherine Y.; Checca, C. Jason

    2014-01-01

    The predictive validity and accuracy of an oral reading fluency (ORF) measure for a statewide assessment in English language arts was examined for second-grade native English speakers (NESs) and English learners (ELs) with varying levels of English proficiency. In addition to comparing ELs with native English speakers, the impact of English…

  17. Validation of Occupants’ Behaviour Models for Indoor Quality Parameter and Energy Consumption Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fabi, Valentina; Sugliano, Martina; Andersen, Rune Korsholm

    2015-01-01

    Occupants’ behaviour related to building control system plays a significant role to achieve thermal comfort and air quality in naturally-ventilated buildings. Generally, the published models of occupant's behavior are not validated, meaning that the predictive power has not yet been tested. For t...

  18. Incremental Validity of the WJ III COG: Limited Predictive Effects beyond the GIA-E

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, Ryan J.; Busse, R. T.

    2015-01-01

    This study is an examination of the incremental validity of Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) broad clusters from the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Cognitive Abilities (WJ III COG) for predicting scores on the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Achievement (WJ III ACH). The participants were children and adolescents, ages 6-18 (n = 4,722), drawn from the WJ…

  19. Validation of forcefields in predicting the physical and thermophysical properties of emeraldine base polyaniline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, X.P.; Yuan, C.A.; Wong, C.K.Y.; Koh, S.W.; Zhang, G.Q.

    2011-01-01

    We report a molecular modelling study to validate the forcefields [condensed-phase optimised molecular potentials for atomistic simulation studies (COMPASS) and polymer-consistent forcefield (PCFF)] in predicting the physical and thermophysical properties of polymers. This work comprises of two key

  20. Development and validation of a prediction model for loss of physical function in elderly hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuma, Shingo; Shimizu, Sayaka; Shintani, Ayumi; Kamitani, Tsukasa; Akizawa, Tadao; Fukuhara, Shunichi

    2017-09-05

    Among aging hemodialysis patients, loss of physical function has become a major issue. We developed and validated a model of predicting loss of physical function among elderly hemodialysis patients. We conducted a cohort study involving maintenance hemodialysis patients  ≥65 years of age from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Pattern Study in Japan. The derivation cohort included 593 early phase (1996-2004) patients and the temporal validation cohort included 447 late-phase (2005-12) patients. The main outcome was the incidence of loss of physical function, defined as the 12-item Short Form Health Survey physical function score decreasing to 0 within a year. Using backward stepwise logistic regression by Akaike's Information Criteria, six predictors (age, gender, dementia, mental health, moderate activity and ascending stairs) were selected for the final model. Points were assigned based on the regression coefficients and the total score was calculated by summing the points for each predictor. In total, 65 (11.0%) and 53 (11.9%) hemodialysis patients lost their physical function within 1 year in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. This model has good predictive performance quantified by both discrimination and calibration. The proportion of the loss of physical function increased sequentially through low-, middle-, and high-score categories based on the model (2.5%, 11.7% and 22.3% in the validation cohort, respectively). The loss of physical function was strongly associated with 1-year mortality [adjusted odds ratio 2.48 (95% confidence interval 1.26-4.91)]. We developed and validated a risk prediction model with good predictive performance for loss of physical function in elderly hemodialysis patients. Our simple prediction model may help physicians and patients make more informed decisions for healthy longevity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.

  1. Validations and improvements of airfoil trailing-edge noise prediction models using detailed experimental data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamruzzaman, M.; Lutz, Th.; Würz, W.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an extensive assessment and a step by step validation of different turbulent boundary-layer trailing-edge noise prediction schemes developed within the European Union funded wind energy project UpWind. To validate prediction models, measurements of turbulent boundary-layer pr...... with measurements in the frequency region higher than 1 kHz, whereas they over-predict the sound pressure level in the low-frequency region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.......-layer properties such as two-point turbulent velocity correlations, the spectra of the associated wall pressure fluctuations and the emitted trailing-edge far-field noise were performed in the laminar wind tunnel of the Institute of Aerodynamics and Gas Dynamics, University of Stuttgart. The measurements were...... carried out for a NACA 643-418 airfoil, at Re  =  2.5 ×106, angle of attack of −6° to 6°. Numerical results of different prediction schemes are extensively validated and discussed elaborately. The investigations on the TNO-Blake noise prediction model show that the numerical wall pressure fluctuation...

  2. External validation of the ability of the DRAGON score to predict outcome after thrombolysis treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ovesen, Christian Aavang; Christensen, Anders; Nielsen, J K

    2013-01-01

    Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant plasmino......Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant...... and their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was assessed after 3 months. Three hundred and three patients were included in the analysis. The DRAGON scale proved to have a good discriminative ability for predicting highly unfavourable outcome (mRS 5-6) (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]: 0...

  3. Convergent evidence for hierarchical prediction networks from human electrocorticography and magnetoencephalography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Holly N; Blenkmann, Alejandro; Hughes, Laura E; Kochen, Silvia; Bekinschtein, Tristan A; Cam-Can; Rowe, James B

    2016-09-01

    We propose that sensory inputs are processed in terms of optimised predictions and prediction error signals within hierarchical neurocognitive models. The combination of non-invasive brain imaging and generative network models has provided support for hierarchical frontotemporal interactions in oddball tasks, including recent identification of a temporal expectancy signal acting on prefrontal cortex. However, these studies are limited by the need to invert magnetoencephalographic or electroencephalographic sensor signals to localise activity from cortical 'nodes' in the network, or to infer neural responses from indirect measures such as the fMRI BOLD signal. To overcome this limitation, we examined frontotemporal interactions estimated from direct cortical recordings from two human participants with cortical electrode grids (electrocorticography - ECoG). Their frontotemporal network dynamics were compared to those identified by magnetoencephalography (MEG) in forty healthy adults. All participants performed the same auditory oddball task with standard tones interspersed with five deviant tone types. We normalised post-operative electrode locations to standardised anatomic space, to compare across modalities, and inverted the MEG to cortical sources using the estimated lead field from subject-specific head models. A mismatch negativity signal in frontal and temporal cortex was identified in all subjects. Generative models of the electrocorticographic and magnetoencephalographic data were separately compared using the free-energy estimate of the model evidence. Model comparison confirmed the same critical features of hierarchical frontotemporal networks in each patient as in the group-wise MEG analysis. These features included bilateral, feedforward and feedback frontotemporal modulated connectivity, in addition to an asymmetric expectancy driving input on left frontal cortex. The invasive ECoG provides an important step in construct validation of the use of neural

  4. Level of evidence for reasonable assurance guides to prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweitzer, D.G.; Sastre, C.

    1987-04-01

    Over the past years, the DOE Contractors have produced a great deal of work that has been extensively reviewed and criticized by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Materials Review Board (MRB) of the DOE, the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS), and the technical support group at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). Common aspects of the reviews and criticisms have provided information on the level of evidence required by the scientific community to defend performance claims. Important indicators of the type of evidence that the NRC will require for favorable decisions of reasonable assurance also can be obtained from 10 CFR 60 and its rationale, from NRC guides and Technical Position papers, from past reviews of the DOE programs by NRC Contractors, and from the use of reasonable assurance by the NRC in its 1984 Waste Confidence Decision. This report describes general concepts related to the acceptability and unacceptability of the level of evidence needed to defend claims with reasonable assurance. The concepts were formulated on the basis of analyses of the NRC position papers, and of common aspects of the reviews and criticisms dealing with compliance demonstration

  5. Predictive Validity of Explicit and Implicit Threat Overestimation in Contamination Fear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Jennifer S.; Teachman, Bethany A.

    2012-01-01

    We examined the predictive validity of explicit and implicit measures of threat overestimation in relation to contamination-fear outcomes using structural equation modeling. Undergraduate students high in contamination fear (N = 56) completed explicit measures of contamination threat likelihood and severity, as well as looming vulnerability cognitions, in addition to an implicit measure of danger associations with potential contaminants. Participants also completed measures of contamination-fear symptoms, as well as subjective distress and avoidance during a behavioral avoidance task, and state looming vulnerability cognitions during an exposure task. The latent explicit (but not implicit) threat overestimation variable was a significant and unique predictor of contamination fear symptoms and self-reported affective and cognitive facets of contamination fear. On the contrary, the implicit (but not explicit) latent measure predicted behavioral avoidance (at the level of a trend). Results are discussed in terms of differential predictive validity of implicit versus explicit markers of threat processing and multiple fear response systems. PMID:24073390

  6. Review and evaluation of performance measures for survival prediction models in external validation settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shafiqur Rahman

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When developing a prediction model for survival data it is essential to validate its performance in external validation settings using appropriate performance measures. Although a number of such measures have been proposed, there is only limited guidance regarding their use in the context of model validation. This paper reviewed and evaluated a wide range of performance measures to provide some guidelines for their use in practice. Methods An extensive simulation study based on two clinical datasets was conducted to investigate the performance of the measures in external validation settings. Measures were selected from categories that assess the overall performance, discrimination and calibration of a survival prediction model. Some of these have been modified to allow their use with validation data, and a case study is provided to describe how these measures can be estimated in practice. The measures were evaluated with respect to their robustness to censoring and ease of interpretation. All measures are implemented, or are straightforward to implement, in statistical software. Results Most of the performance measures were reasonably robust to moderate levels of censoring. One exception was Harrell’s concordance measure which tended to increase as censoring increased. Conclusions We recommend that Uno’s concordance measure is used to quantify concordance when there are moderate levels of censoring. Alternatively, Gönen and Heller’s measure could be considered, especially if censoring is very high, but we suggest that the prediction model is re-calibrated first. We also recommend that Royston’s D is routinely reported to assess discrimination since it has an appealing interpretation. The calibration slope is useful for both internal and external validation settings and recommended to report routinely. Our recommendation would be to use any of the predictive accuracy measures and provide the corresponding predictive

  7. Trainees' Perceptions of Feedback: Validity Evidence for Two FEEDME (Feedback in Medical Education) Instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing-You, Robert; Ramesh, Saradha; Hayes, Victoria; Varaklis, Kalli; Ward, Denham; Blanco, Maria

    2018-01-01

    Construct: Medical educators consider feedback a core component of the educational process. Effective feedback allows learners to acquire new skills, knowledge, and attitudes. Learners' perceptions of feedback are an important aspect to assess with valid methods in order to improve the feedback skills of educators and the feedback culture. Although guidelines for delivering effective feedback have existed for several decades, medical students and residents often indicate that they receive little feedback. A recent scoping review on feedback in medical education did not reveal any validity evidence on instruments to assess learner's perceptions of feedback. The purpose of our study was to gather validity evidence on two novel FEEDME (Feedback in Medical Education) instruments to assess medical students' and residents' perceptions of the feedback that they receive. After the authors developed an initial instrument with 54 items, cognitive interviews with medical students and residents suggested that 2 separate instruments were needed, one focused on the feedback culture (FEEDME-Culture) and the other on the provider of feedback (FEEDME-Provider). A Delphi study with 17 medical education experts and faculty members assessed content validity. The response process was explored involving 31 medical students and residents at 2 academic institutions. Exploratory factor analysis and reliability analyses were performed on completed instruments. Two Delphi consultation rounds refined the wording of items and eliminated several items. Learners found both instruments easy and quick to answer; it took them less than 5 minutes to complete. Learners preferred an electronic format of the instruments over paper. Factor analysis revealed a two- and three-factor solution for the FEEDME-Culture and FEEDME-Provider instruments, respectively. Cronbach's alpha was greater than 0.80 for all factors. Items on both instruments were moderately to highly correlated (range, r = .3-.7). Our

  8. Validity Evidence for a Serious Game to Assess Performance on Critical Pediatric Emergency Medicine Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerard, James M; Scalzo, Anthony J; Borgman, Matthew A; Watson, Christopher M; Byrnes, Chelsie E; Chang, Todd P; Auerbach, Marc; Kessler, David O; Feldman, Brian L; Payne, Brian S; Nibras, Sohail; Chokshi, Riti K; Lopreiato, Joseph O

    2018-01-26

    We developed a first-person serious game, PediatricSim, to teach and assess performances on seven critical pediatric scenarios (anaphylaxis, bronchiolitis, diabetic ketoacidosis, respiratory failure, seizure, septic shock, and supraventricular tachycardia). In the game, players are placed in the role of a code leader and direct patient management by selecting from various assessment and treatment options. The objective of this study was to obtain supportive validity evidence for the PediatricSim game scores. Game content was developed by 11 subject matter experts and followed the American Heart Association's 2011 Pediatric Advanced Life Support Provider Manual and other authoritative references. Sixty subjects with three different levels of experience were enrolled to play the game. Before game play, subjects completed a 40-item written pretest of knowledge. Game scores were compared between subject groups using scoring rubrics developed for the scenarios. Validity evidence was established and interpreted according to Messick's framework. Content validity was supported by a game development process that involved expert experience, focused literature review, and pilot testing. Subjects rated the game favorably for engagement, realism, and educational value. Interrater agreement on game scoring was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91, 95% confidence interval = 0.89-0.9). Game scores were higher for attendings followed by residents then medical students (Pc game and written test scores (r = 0.84, P game scores to assess knowledge of pediatric emergency medicine resuscitation.

  9. Predictive validity of pre-admission assessments on medical student performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabaliz, Al-Awwab; Kaadan, Samy; Dabbagh, M Marwan; Barakat, Abdulaziz; Shareef, Mohammad Abrar; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Obeidat, Akef; Mohamed, Ayman

    2017-11-24

    To examine the predictive validity of pre-admission variables on students' performance in a medical school in Saudi Arabia. In this retrospective study, we collected admission and college performance data for 737 students in preclinical and clinical years. Data included high school scores and other standardized test scores, such as those of the National Achievement Test and the General Aptitude Test. Additionally, we included the scores of the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) and the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) exams. Those datasets were then compared with college performance indicators, namely the cumulative Grade Point Average (cGPA) and progress test, using multivariate linear regression analysis. In preclinical years, both the National Achievement Test (p=0.04, B=0.08) and TOEFL (p=0.017, B=0.01) scores were positive predictors of cGPA, whereas the General Aptitude Test (p=0.048, B=-0.05) negatively predicted cGPA. Moreover, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of progress test performance in the same group. On the other hand, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of cGPA in clinical years. Overall, cGPA strongly predict-ed students' progress test performance (p<0.001 and B=19.02). Only the National Achievement Test and TOEFL significantly predicted performance in preclinical years. However, these variables do not predict progress test performance, meaning that they do not predict the functional knowledge reflected in the progress test. We report various strengths and deficiencies in the current medical college admission criteria, and call for employing more sensitive and valid ones that predict student performance and functional knowledge, especially in the clinical years.

  10. Validity evidence for the Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery (FLS) program as an assessment tool: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zendejas, Benjamin; Ruparel, Raaj K; Cook, David A

    2016-02-01

    The Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery (FLS) program uses five simulation stations (peg transfer, precision cutting, loop ligation, and suturing with extracorporeal and intracorporeal knot tying) to teach and assess laparoscopic surgery skills. We sought to summarize evidence regarding the validity of scores from the FLS assessment. We systematically searched for studies evaluating the FLS as an assessment tool (last search update February 26, 2013). We classified validity evidence using the currently standard validity framework (content, response process, internal structure, relations with other variables, and consequences). From a pool of 11,628 studies, we identified 23 studies reporting validity evidence for FLS scores. Studies involved residents (n = 19), practicing physicians (n = 17), and medical students (n = 8), in specialties of general (n = 17), gynecologic (n = 4), urologic (n = 1), and veterinary (n = 1) surgery. Evidence was most common in the form of relations with other variables (n = 22, most often expert-novice differences). Only three studies reported internal structure evidence (inter-rater or inter-station reliability), two studies reported content evidence (i.e., derivation of assessment elements), and three studies reported consequences evidence (definition of pass/fail thresholds). Evidence nearly always supported the validity of FLS total scores. However, the loop ligation task lacks discriminatory ability. Validity evidence confirms expected relations with other variables and acceptable inter-rater reliability, but other validity evidence is sparse. Given the high-stakes use of this assessment (required for board eligibility), we suggest that more validity evidence is required, especially to support its content (selection of tasks and scoring rubric) and the consequences (favorable and unfavorable impact) of assessment.

  11. Predictive validity of endpoints used in electrophysiological modelling of migraine in the trigeminovascular system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farkas, Bence; Kardos, Péter; Orosz, Szabolcs; Tarnawa, István; Csekő, Csongor; Lévay, György; Farkas, Sándor; Lendvai, Balázs; Kovács, Péter

    2015-11-02

    The trigeminovascular system has a pivotal role in the pathomechanism of migraine. The aim of the present study was to further develop existing models of migraine making them more suitable for testing the effects of compounds with presumed antimigraine activity in anaesthetised rats. Simultaneous recording of ongoing activity of spontaneously active neurons in the trigeminocervical complex as well as their discharges evoked by electrical stimulation of the dura mater via activation of A- and C-sensory fibres were carried out. Effects of sumatriptan, propranolol and topiramate were evaluated prior to and after application of a mixture containing inflammatory mediators on the dura. Propranolol (10 mg/kg s.c) and topiramate (30 mg/kg s.c.) resulted in a tendency to decrease the level of both spontaneous and evoked activity, while sumatriptan (1 mg/kg s.c.) did not exhibit any effect on recorded parameters. Application of an inflammatory soup to the dura mater boosted up spontaneous activity, which could be significantly attenuated by propranolol and topiramate but not by sumatriptan. In addition, all compounds prevented the delayed increase of spontaneous firing. In contrast to the ongoing activity, evoked responses were not augmented by inflammatory mediators. Nevertheless, inhibitory effect of propranolol and topiramate was evident when considering A- or C-fibre responses. Findings do not support the view that electrically evoked responses are useful for the measurement of trigeminal sensitization. It is proposed however, that inhibition of enhanced firing (immediate and/or delayed) evoked by inflammatory mediators as an endpoint have higher predictive validity regarding the clinical effectiveness of compounds. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Habit Formation, Surplus Consumption and Return Predictability: International Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Hyde, Stuart; Møller, Stig V.

    On an international post World War II dataset, we use an iterated GMM pro- cedure to estimate and test the Campbell-Cochrane (1999) habit formation model. In addition, we analyze the predictive power of the surplus consumption ratio for future asset returns. We find that, although...... there are important cross-country differences, for the majority of countries in our sample the model gets empirical support in a variety of diffrent dimensions, including reasonable estimates of risk- free rates, and the model dominates the time-separable power utility model in terms of pricing errors. Further...... ratio is also a powerful predictor of future bond returns....

  13. The validation of forensic DNA extraction systems to utilize soil contaminated biological evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasu, Mohaimin; Shires, Karen

    2015-07-01

    The production of full DNA profiles from biological evidence found in soil has a high failure rate due largely to the inhibitory substance humic acid (HA). Abundant in various natural soils, HA co-extracts with DNA during extraction and inhibits DNA profiling by binding to the molecular components of the genotyping assay. To successfully utilize traces of soil contaminated evidence, such as that found at many murder and rape crime scenes in South Africa, a reliable HA removal extraction system would often be selected based on previous validation studies. However, for many standard forensic DNA extraction systems, peer-reviewed publications detailing the efficacy on soil evidence is either lacking or is incomplete. Consequently, these sample types are often not collected or fail to yield suitable DNA material due to the use of unsuitable methodology. The aim of this study was to validate the common forensic DNA collection and extraction systems used in South Africa, namely DNA IQ, FTA elute and Nucleosave for processing blood and saliva contaminated with HA. A forensic appropriate volume of biological evidence was spiked with HA (0, 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 mg/ml) and processed through each extraction protocol for the evaluation of HA removal using QPCR and STR-genotyping. The DNA IQ magnetic bead system effectively removed HA from highly contaminated blood and saliva, and generated consistently acceptable STR profiles from both artificially spiked samples and crude soil samples. This system is highly recommended for use on soil-contaminated evidence over the cellulose card-based systems currently being preferentially used for DNA sample collection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Prediction of prostate cancer in unscreened men: external validation of a risk calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vugt, Heidi A; Roobol, Monique J; Kranse, Ries; Määttänen, Liisa; Finne, Patrik; Hugosson, Jonas; Bangma, Chris H; Schröder, Fritz H; Steyerberg, Ewout W

    2011-04-01

    Prediction models need external validation to assess their value beyond the setting where the model was derived from. To assess the external validity of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (www.prostatecancer-riskcalculator.com) for the probability of having a positive prostate biopsy (P(posb)). The ERSPC risk calculator was based on data of the initial screening round of the ERSPC section Rotterdam and validated in 1825 and 531 men biopsied at the initial screening round in the Finnish and Swedish sections of the ERSPC respectively. P(posb) was calculated using serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), outcome of digital rectal examination (DRE), transrectal ultrasound and ultrasound assessed prostate volume. The external validity was assessed for the presence of cancer at biopsy by calibration (agreement between observed and predicted outcomes), discrimination (separation of those with and without cancer), and decision curves (for clinical usefulness). Prostate cancer was detected in 469 men (26%) of the Finnish cohort and in 124 men (23%) of the Swedish cohort. Systematic miscalibration was present in both cohorts (mean predicted probability 34% versus 26% observed, and 29% versus 23% observed, both pscreened men, but overestimated the risk of a positive biopsy. Further research is necessary to assess the performance and applicability of the ERSPC risk calculator when a clinical setting is considered rather than a screening setting. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Model validation and the role of the proposed Rock Characterisation Facility at Sellafield. Proof of evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallace, H.

    1996-01-01

    Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. An examination of the groundwater flow models used by Nirex and the procedure for their validation have led to the following conclusions: no evidence has been presented by Nirex to show that the construction of the RCF will improve the confidence they claim to have in the site; the prospects are slim for validating the models of present groundwater flow so that they satisfy the criteria to meet the risk target; it is extremely unlikely that results from the RCF will increase confidence in a safety assessment of this site; all the evidence available to date suggests that the risk assessment is not, and will not become, robust to variations in flux through the repository. (1 figure; 8 references). (UK)

  16. Validation of Skeletal Muscle cis-Regulatory Module Predictions Reveals Nucleotide Composition Bias in Functional Enhancers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Andrew T.; Chou, Alice Yi; Arenillas, David J.; Wasserman, Wyeth W.

    2011-01-01

    We performed a genome-wide scan for muscle-specific cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) using three computational prediction programs. Based on the predictions, 339 candidate CRMs were tested in cell culture with NIH3T3 fibroblasts and C2C12 myoblasts for capacity to direct selective reporter gene expression to differentiated C2C12 myotubes. A subset of 19 CRMs validated as functional in the assay. The rate of predictive success reveals striking limitations of computational regulatory sequence analysis methods for CRM discovery. Motif-based methods performed no better than predictions based only on sequence conservation. Analysis of the properties of the functional sequences relative to inactive sequences identifies nucleotide sequence composition can be an important characteristic to incorporate in future methods for improved predictive specificity. Muscle-related TFBSs predicted within the functional sequences display greater sequence conservation than non-TFBS flanking regions. Comparison with recent MyoD and histone modification ChIP-Seq data supports the validity of the functional regions. PMID:22144875

  17. Validation of skeletal muscle cis-regulatory module predictions reveals nucleotide composition bias in functional enhancers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew T Kwon

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We performed a genome-wide scan for muscle-specific cis-regulatory modules (CRMs using three computational prediction programs. Based on the predictions, 339 candidate CRMs were tested in cell culture with NIH3T3 fibroblasts and C2C12 myoblasts for capacity to direct selective reporter gene expression to differentiated C2C12 myotubes. A subset of 19 CRMs validated as functional in the assay. The rate of predictive success reveals striking limitations of computational regulatory sequence analysis methods for CRM discovery. Motif-based methods performed no better than predictions based only on sequence conservation. Analysis of the properties of the functional sequences relative to inactive sequences identifies nucleotide sequence composition can be an important characteristic to incorporate in future methods for improved predictive specificity. Muscle-related TFBSs predicted within the functional sequences display greater sequence conservation than non-TFBS flanking regions. Comparison with recent MyoD and histone modification ChIP-Seq data supports the validity of the functional regions.

  18. Validity of childhood adiposity classification in predicting adolescent overweight and obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta, Michael; Zarka, Salman; Bibi, Haim; Haviv, Jacob; Scharf, Shimon; Gdalevich, Michael

    2010-05-03

    Identification of children at risk for adolescent overweight can assist in targeting interventions. Uncertainty remains regarding the validity of current body mass index (BMI) reference values in predicting future risk on a population basis. This study aimed to assess the validity of current childhood adiposity classifications in predicting adolescent overweight and obesity among Israeli youth. Historical cohort study. School-based childhood health studies and adolescent physical examinations. A total of 3 163 subjects surveyed first at age 8-15 and again at age 17-19. Age, sex, height, weight and BMI. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and relative risk of childhood adiposity classification. Childhood overweight and obesity showed low sensitivity and high specificity for predicting adolescent overweight and obesity. Positive predictive values were low and varied by age and sex, but negative predictive values were consistently high in both sexes and all ages (range 0.85-0.99). After adjusting for age and sex, both childhood overweight and obesity substantially increased the risk of adolescent overweight (relative risk [RR] 7.03 and 7.20, respectively) and adolescent obesity (RR 24.34 and 28.41, respectively). Childhood overweight and obesity are strong risk factors for adolescent overweight and obesity among Israeli youth. Normal weight children were at very low risk for adolescent overweight. These findings suggest that population-based health promotion aimed at maintaining normal weight among children should be given preference over risk-guided approaches targeting weight reduction among obese children.

  19. A prediction algorithm for first onset of major depression in the general population: development and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, JianLi; Sareen, Jitender; Patten, Scott; Bolton, James; Schmitz, Norbert; Birney, Arden

    2014-05-01

    Prediction algorithms are useful for making clinical decisions and for population health planning. However, such prediction algorithms for first onset of major depression do not exist. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction algorithm for first onset of major depression in the general population. Longitudinal study design with approximate 3-year follow-up. The study was based on data from a nationally representative sample of the US general population. A total of 28 059 individuals who participated in Waves 1 and 2 of the US National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions and who had not had major depression at Wave 1 were included. The prediction algorithm was developed using logistic regression modelling in 21 813 participants from three census regions. The algorithm was validated in participants from the 4th census region (n=6246). Major depression occurred since Wave 1 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, assessed by the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule-diagnostic and statistical manual for mental disorders IV. A prediction algorithm containing 17 unique risk factors was developed. The algorithm had good discriminative power (C statistics=0.7538, 95% CI 0.7378 to 0.7699) and excellent calibration (F-adjusted test=1.00, p=0.448) with the weighted data. In the validation sample, the algorithm had a C statistic of 0.7259 and excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.41, p=0.906). The developed prediction algorithm has good discrimination and calibration capacity. It can be used by clinicians, mental health policy-makers and service planners and the general public to predict future risk of having major depression. The application of the algorithm may lead to increased personalisation of treatment, better clinical decisions and more optimal mental health service planning.

  20. Structural syntactic prediction measured with ELAN: evidence from ERPs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonteneau, Elisabeth

    2013-02-08

    The current study used event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate how and when argument structure information is used during the processing of sentences with a filler-gap dependency. We hypothesize that one specific property - animacy (living vs. non-living) - is used by the parser during the building of the syntactic structure. Participants heard sentences that were rated off-line as having an expected noun (Who did the Lion King chase the caravan with?) or an unexpected noun (Who did Lion King chase the animal with?). This prediction is based on the animacy properties relation between the wh-word and the noun in the object position. ERPs from the noun in the unexpected condition (animal) elicited a typical Early Left Anterior Negativity (ELAN)/P600 complex compared to the noun in the expected condition (caravan). Firstly, these results demonstrate that the ELAN reflects not only grammatical category violation but also animacy property expectations in filler-gap dependency. Secondly, our data suggests that the language comprehension system is able to make detailed predictions about aspects of the upcoming words to build up the syntactic structure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. French validation and adaptation of the Grobman nomogram for prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haumonte, J-B; Raylet, M; Christophe, M; Mauviel, F; Bertrand, A; Desbriere, R; d'Ercole, C

    2018-03-01

    To validate Grobman nomogram for predicting vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) in a French population and adapt it. Multicenter retrospective study of maternal and obstetric factors associated with VBAC between May 2012 and May 2013 in 6 maternity units. External validation and adaptation of the prenatal and intrapartum Grobman nomograms for vaginal birth prediction after cesarean delivery in a French cohort. The study included 523 women with previous cesarean deliveries; 70% underwent a trial of labor for a subsequent delivery (n=367) with a success rate of 65% (n=240). In the univariate analysis, 5 factors were associated with successful VBAC: previous vaginal delivery before the cesarean (P6 (P=0.03). A potentially recurrent indication (defined as arrest of dilation or descent as the indication for the previous cesarean) (P=0.039), a hypertensive disorder during pregnancy (P=0.05), and labor induction (P=0.017) were each associated with failed VBAC. External validation of the prenatal and intrapartum Grobman nomograms showed an area under the ROC curve of 69% (95% CI: 0.638, 0.736) and 65% (95% CI: 0.599, 0.700) respectively. Adaptation of the nomogram to the French cohort resulted in the inclusion of the following factors: maternal age, body mass index at last prenatal visit, hypertensive disorder, gestational age at delivery, recurring indication, cervical dilatation, and induction of labor. Its area under the curve to predict successful VBAC was 78% (95% CI: 0.738, 0.825). The nomogram to predict VBAC developed by Grobman et al. is validated in the French population. Adaptation to the French population, by excluding ethnicity, appeared to improve its performance. Impact of the nomogram use on the caesarean section rate has to be validated in a randomized control trial. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  2. Evidence of Reliability and Validity for a Children’s Auditory Continuous Performance Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Lasee

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Continuous Performance Tests (CPTs are commonly utilized clinical measures of attention and response inhibition. While there have been many studies of CPTs that utilize a visual format, there is considerably less research employing auditory CPTs. The current study provides initial reliability and validity evidence for the Auditory Vigilance Screening Measure (AVSM, a newly developed CPT. Participants included 105 five- to nine-year-old children selected from two rural Midwestern school districts. Reliability data for the AVSM was collected through retesting of 42 participants. Validity was evaluated through correlation of AVSM scales with subscales from the ADHD Rating Scale–IV. Test–retest reliability coefficients ranged from .62 to .74 for AVSM subscales. A significant (r = .31 correlation was obtained between the AVSM Impulsivity Scale and teacher ratings of inattention. Limitations and implications for future study are discussed.

  3. Accumulation of Content Validation Evidence for the Critical Thinking Self-Assessment Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Girija Gopinathan; Hellsten, Laurie-Ann M; Stamler, Lynnette Leeseberg

    2017-04-01

    Critical thinking skills (CTS) are essential for nurses; assessing students' acquisition of these skills is a mandate of nursing curricula. This study aimed to develop a self-assessment instrument of critical thinking skills (Critical Thinking Self-Assessment Scale [CTSAS]) for students' self-monitoring. An initial pool of 196 items across 6 core cognitive skills and 16 subskills were generated using the American Philosophical Association definition of CTS. Experts' content review of the items and their ratings provided evidence of content relevance using the item-level content validity index (I-CVI) and Aiken's content validity coefficient (VIk). 115 items were retained (range of I-CVI values = .70 to .94 and range of VIk values = .69-.95; significant at pself-assessment purposes.

  4. Validity of a manual soft tissue profile prediction method following mandibular setback osteotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolokitha, Olga-Elpis

    2007-10-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the validity of a manual cephalometric method used for predicting the post-operative soft tissue profiles of patients who underwent mandibular setback surgery and compare it to a computerized cephalometric prediction method (Dentofacial Planner). Lateral cephalograms of 18 adults with mandibular prognathism taken at the end of pre-surgical orthodontics and approximately one year after surgery were used. To test the validity of the manual method the prediction tracings were compared to the actual post-operative tracings. The Dentofacial Planner software was used to develop the computerized post-surgical prediction tracings. Both manual and computerized prediction printouts were analyzed by using the cephalometric system PORDIOS. Statistical analysis was performed by means of t-test. Comparison between manual prediction tracings and the actual post-operative profile showed that the manual method results in more convex soft tissue profiles; the upper lip was found in a more prominent position, upper lip thickness was increased and, the mandible and lower lip were found in a less posterior position than that of the actual profiles. Comparison between computerized and manual prediction methods showed that in the manual method upper lip thickness was increased, the upper lip was found in a more anterior position and the lower anterior facial height was increased as compared to the computerized prediction method. Cephalometric simulation of post-operative soft tissue profile following orthodontic-surgical management of mandibular prognathism imposes certain limitations related to the methods implied. However, both manual and computerized prediction methods remain a useful tool for patient communication.

  5. Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett's esophagus in an Australian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ireland, Colin J; Gordon, Andrea L; Thompson, Sarah K; Watson, David I; Whiteman, David C; Reed, Richard L; Esterman, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett's esophagus (BE). While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.87). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was p =0.14. Minimizing false positives and false negatives, the model achieved a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 73%. This study has validated a risk prediction model for BE that has a higher sensitivity than previous models.

  6. A Reliable and Valid Survey to Predict a Patient’s Gagging Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casey M. Hearing

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to devise a reliable and valid survey to predict the intensity of someone’s gag reflex. Material and Methods: A 10-question Predictive Gagging Survey was created, refined, and tested on 59 undergraduate participants. The questions focused on risk factors and experiences that would indicate the presence and strength of someone’s gag reflex. Reliability was assessed by administering the survey to a group of 17 participants twice, with 3 weeks separating the two administrations. Finally, the survey was given to 25 dental patients. In these cases, patients completed an informed consent form, filled out the survey, and then had a maxillary impression taken while their gagging response was quantified from 1 to 5 on the Fiske and Dickinson Gagging Intensity Index. Results: There was a moderate positive correlation between the Predictive Gagging Survey and Fiske and Dickinson’s Gagging Severity Index, r = +0.64, demonstrating the survey’s validity. Furthermore, the test-retest reliability was r = +0.96, demonstrating the survey’s reliability. Conclusions: The Predictive Gagging Survey is a 10-question survey about gag-related experiences and behaviours. We established that it is a reliable and valid method to assess the strength of someone’s gag reflex.

  7. The predictive validity of the BioMedical Admissions Test for pre-clinical examination performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Joanne L; Bell, John F

    2009-06-01

    Some medical courses in the UK have many more applicants than places and almost all applicants have the highest possible previous and predicted examination grades. The BioMedical Admissions Test (BMAT) was designed to assist in the student selection process specifically for a number of 'traditional' medical courses with clear pre-clinical and clinical phases and a strong focus on science teaching in the early years. It is intended to supplement the information provided by examination results, interviews and personal statements. This paper reports on the predictive validity of the BMAT and its predecessor, the Medical and Veterinary Admissions Test. Results from the earliest 4 years of the test (2000-2003) were matched to the pre-clinical examination results of those accepted onto the medical course at the University of Cambridge. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were performed for each cohort. Section 2 of the test ('Scientific Knowledge') correlated more strongly with examination marks than did Section 1 ('Aptitude and Skills'). It also had a stronger relationship with the probability of achieving the highest examination class. The BMAT and its predecessor demonstrate predictive validity for the pre-clinical years of the medical course at the University of Cambridge. The test identifies important differences in skills and knowledge between candidates, not shown by their previous attainment, which predict their examination performance. It is thus a valid source of additional admissions information for medical courses with a strong scientific emphasis when previous attainment is very high.

  8. Recurrent epistaxis: predicting risk of 30-day readmission, derivation and validation of RHINO-ooze score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addison, A; Paul, C; Kuo, R; Lamyman, A; Martinez-Devesa, P; Hettige, R

    2017-06-01

    To derive and validate a predictive scoring tool (RHINO-ooze score) with good sensitivity and specificity in identifying patients with epistaxis at high risk of 30 day readmission and to enable risk stratification for possible definitive intervention. Using medical databases, we searched for factors influencing recurrent epistaxis. The information ascertained together with our analysis of retrospective data on patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2013 and September 2014, was used as the derivation cohort to develop the predictive scoring model (RHINO-ooze score). The tool was validated by performing statistical analysis on the validation cohort of patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2014 and October 2015. Multiple linear regressions with backwards elimination was used to derive the predictive model. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated. 834 admissions were encountered within the study period. Using the derivative cohort (n= 302) the RHINO-ooze score with a maximum score of 8 from five variables (Recent admission, Haemorrhage point unidentified, Increasing age over 70, posterior Nasal packing, Oral anticoagulant) was developed. The RHINO-ooze score had a chi-square value of 99.72 with a significance level of smaller than 0.0001 and hence an overall good model fit. Comparison between the derivative and validation groups revealed similar rates of 30-day readmission between the cohorts. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting 30-day readmission in high risk patients with recurrent epistaxis (RHINO-ooze score equal/larger than 6) was 81% and 84%, respectively. The RHINO-ooze scoring tool demonstrates good specificity and sensitivity in predicting the risk of 30 day readmission in patients with epistaxis and can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision making with regards to timing of operative intervention in order to reduce readmission rates.

  9. A Supervised Learning Process to Validate Online Disease Reports for Use in Predictive Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patching, Helena M M; Hudson, Laurence M; Cooke, Warrick; Garcia, Andres J; Hay, Simon I; Roberts, Mark; Moyes, Catherine L

    2015-12-01

    Pathogen distribution models that predict spatial variation in disease occurrence require data from a large number of geographic locations to generate disease risk maps. Traditionally, this process has used data from public health reporting systems; however, using online reports of new infections could speed up the process dramatically. Data from both public health systems and online sources must be validated before they can be used, but no mechanisms exist to validate data from online media reports. We have developed a supervised learning process to validate geolocated disease outbreak data in a timely manner. The process uses three input features, the data source and two metrics derived from the location of each disease occurrence. The location of disease occurrence provides information on the probability of disease occurrence at that location based on environmental and socioeconomic factors and the distance within or outside the current known disease extent. The process also uses validation scores, generated by disease experts who review a subset of the data, to build a training data set. The aim of the supervised learning process is to generate validation scores that can be used as weights going into the pathogen distribution model. After analyzing the three input features and testing the performance of alternative processes, we selected a cascade of ensembles comprising logistic regressors. Parameter values for the training data subset size, number of predictors, and number of layers in the cascade were tested before the process was deployed. The final configuration was tested using data for two contrasting diseases (dengue and cholera), and 66%-79% of data points were assigned a validation score. The remaining data points are scored by the experts, and the results inform the training data set for the next set of predictors, as well as going to the pathogen distribution model. The new supervised learning process has been implemented within our live site and is

  10. Reliability and Validity of the Load-Velocity Relationship to Predict the 1RM Back Squat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banyard, Harry G; Nosaka, Kazunori; Haff, G Gregory

    2017-07-01

    Banyard, HG, Nosaka, K, and Haff, GG. Reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the 1RM back squat. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1897-1904, 2017-This study investigated the reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the free-weight back squat one repetition maximum (1RM). Seventeen strength-trained males performed three 1RM assessments on 3 separate days. All repetitions were performed to full depth with maximal concentric effort. Predicted 1RMs were calculated by entering the mean concentric velocity of the 1RM (V1RM) into an individualized linear regression equation, which was derived from the load-velocity relationship of 3 (20, 40, 60% of 1RM), 4 (20, 40, 60, 80% of 1RM), or 5 (20, 40, 60, 80, 90% of 1RM) incremental warm-up sets. The actual 1RM (140.3 ± 27.2 kg) was very stable between 3 trials (ICC = 0.99; SEM = 2.9 kg; CV = 2.1%; ES = 0.11). Predicted 1RM from 5 warm-up sets up to and including 90% of 1RM was the most reliable (ICC = 0.92; SEM = 8.6 kg; CV = 5.7%; ES = -0.02) and valid (r = 0.93; SEE = 10.6 kg; CV = 7.4%; ES = 0.71) of the predicted 1RM methods. However, all predicted 1RMs were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05; ES = 0.71-1.04) from the actual 1RM. Individual variation for the actual 1RM was small between trials ranging from -5.6 to 4.8% compared with the most accurate predictive method up to 90% of 1RM, which was more variable (-5.5 to 27.8%). Importantly, the V1RM (0.24 ± 0.06 m·s) was unreliable between trials (ICC = 0.42; SEM = 0.05 m·s; CV = 22.5%; ES = 0.14). The load-velocity relationship for the full depth free-weight back squat showed moderate reliability and validity but could not accurately predict 1RM, which was stable between trials. Thus, the load-velocity relationship 1RM prediction method used in this study cannot accurately modify sessional training loads because of large V1RM variability.

  11. New Evidence of Construct Validity Problems for Pettigrew and Meertens' (1995) Blatant and Subtle Prejudice Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arancibia-Martini, Héctor; Ruiz, Miguel Á; Blanco, Amalio; Cárdenas, Manuel

    2016-04-01

    Given the current debate over the distinction between subtle and blatant prejudice, this study provides new evidence regarding problems with the construct validity of the Pettigrew and Meertens' Blatant and Subtle Prejudice Scale. To assess these issues, an existing data sample of 896 Chilean participants collected in 2010 was reanalyzed. The main analysis method used was a confirmatory factor analysis. The model that best represented the original theory (a model of two correlated second-order factors) had an improper solution due to the unidentified model. The scale has substantial psychometric problems, and it was not possible to distinguish between subtle and blatant prejudice. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. Predicting the need for institutional care shortly after admission to rehabilitation: Rasch analysis and predictive validity of the BRASS Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panella, L; La Porta, F; Caselli, S; Marchisio, S; Tennant, A

    2012-09-01

    Effective discharge planning is increasingly recognised as a critical component of hospital-based Rehabilitation. The BRASS index is a risk screening tool for identification, shortly after hospital admission, of patients who are at risk of post-discharge problems. To evaluate the internal construct validity and reliability of the Blaylock Risk Assessment Screening Score (BRASS) within the rehabilitation setting. Observational prospective study. Rehabilitation ward of an Italian district hospital. One hundred and four consecutively admitted patients. Using classical psychometric methods and Rasch analysis (RA), the internal construct validity and reliability of the BRASS were examined. Also, external and predictive validity of the Rasch-modified BRASS (RMB) score were determined. Reliability of the original BRASS was low (Cronbach's alpha=0.595) and factor analyses showed that it was clearly multidimensional. A RA, based on a reduced 7-BRASS item set (RMB), satisfied model's expectations. Reliability was 0.777. The RMB scores strongly correlated with the original BRASS (rho=0.952; P28 days (RR=7.6, 95%CI=1.8-31.9). This study demonstrated that the original BRASS was multidimensional and unreliable. However, the RMB holds adequate internal construct validity and is sufficiently reliable as a predictor of discharge problems for group, but not individual use. The application of tools and methods (such as the BRASS Index) developed under the biomedical paradigm in a Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine setting may have limitations. Further research is needed to develop, within the rehabilitation setting, a valid measuring tool of risk of post-discharge problems at the individual level.

  13. The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepes, Sven; McDaniel, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance. To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses. Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations. The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation.

  14. Using deuterated PAH amendments to validate chemical extraction methods to predict PAH bioavailability in soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez-Eyles, Jose L.; Collins, Chris D.; Hodson, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Validating chemical methods to predict bioavailable fractions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by comparison with accumulation bioassays is problematic. Concentrations accumulated in soil organisms not only depend on the bioavailable fraction but also on contaminant properties. A historically contaminated soil was freshly spiked with deuterated PAHs (dPAHs). dPAHs have a similar fate to their respective undeuterated analogues, so chemical methods that give good indications of bioavailability should extract the fresh more readily available dPAHs and historic more recalcitrant PAHs in similar proportions to those in which they are accumulated in the tissues of test organisms. Cyclodextrin and butanol extractions predicted the bioavailable fraction for earthworms (Eisenia fetida) and plants (Lolium multiflorum) better than the exhaustive extraction. The PAHs accumulated by earthworms had a larger dPAH:PAH ratio than that predicted by chemical methods. The isotope ratio method described here provides an effective way of evaluating other chemical methods to predict bioavailability. - Research highlights: → Isotope ratios can be used to evaluate chemical methods to predict bioavailability. → Chemical methods predicted bioavailability better than exhaustive extractions. → Bioavailability to earthworms was still far from that predicted by chemical methods. - A novel method using isotope ratios to assess the ability of chemical methods to predict PAH bioavailability to soil biota.

  15. Using deuterated PAH amendments to validate chemical extraction methods to predict PAH bioavailability in soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez-Eyles, Jose L., E-mail: j.l.gomezeyles@reading.ac.uk [University of Reading, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, Soil Research Centre, Reading, RG6 6DW Berkshire (United Kingdom); Collins, Chris D.; Hodson, Mark E. [University of Reading, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, Soil Research Centre, Reading, RG6 6DW Berkshire (United Kingdom)

    2011-04-15

    Validating chemical methods to predict bioavailable fractions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by comparison with accumulation bioassays is problematic. Concentrations accumulated in soil organisms not only depend on the bioavailable fraction but also on contaminant properties. A historically contaminated soil was freshly spiked with deuterated PAHs (dPAHs). dPAHs have a similar fate to their respective undeuterated analogues, so chemical methods that give good indications of bioavailability should extract the fresh more readily available dPAHs and historic more recalcitrant PAHs in similar proportions to those in which they are accumulated in the tissues of test organisms. Cyclodextrin and butanol extractions predicted the bioavailable fraction for earthworms (Eisenia fetida) and plants (Lolium multiflorum) better than the exhaustive extraction. The PAHs accumulated by earthworms had a larger dPAH:PAH ratio than that predicted by chemical methods. The isotope ratio method described here provides an effective way of evaluating other chemical methods to predict bioavailability. - Research highlights: > Isotope ratios can be used to evaluate chemical methods to predict bioavailability. > Chemical methods predicted bioavailability better than exhaustive extractions. > Bioavailability to earthworms was still far from that predicted by chemical methods. - A novel method using isotope ratios to assess the ability of chemical methods to predict PAH bioavailability to soil biota.

  16. Predictive Validity of the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale for Short-Term Suicidal Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conway, Paul Maurice; Erlangsen, Annette; Teasdale, Thomas William

    2017-01-01

    adolescents (90.6% females) who participated at follow-up (85.9%) out of the 99 (49.7%) baseline respondents. All adolescents were recruited from a specialized suicide-prevention clinic in Denmark. Through multivariate logistic regression analyses, we examined whether baseline suicidal behavior predicted......Using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS), we examined the predictive and incremental predictive validity of past-month suicidal behavior and ideation for short-term suicidal behavior among adolescents at high risk of suicide. The study was conducted in 2014 on a sample of 85...... subsequent suicidal behavior (actual attempts and suicidal behavior of any type, including preparatory acts, aborted, interrupted and actual attempts; mean follow-up of 80.8 days, SD = 52.4). Furthermore, we examined whether suicidal ideation severity and intensity incrementally predicted suicidal behavior...

  17. Reliability and Validity Evidence of Multiple Balance Assessments in Athletes With a Concussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Nicholas; Salvatore, Anthony; Powell, Douglas; Reed-Jones, Rebecca

    2014-01-01

    Context: An estimated 300 000 sport-related concussion injuries occur in the United States annually. Approximately 30% of individuals with concussions experience balance disturbances. Common methods of balance assessment include the Clinical Test of Sensory Organization and Balance (CTSIB), the Sensory Organization Test (SOT), the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS), and the Romberg test; however, the National Collegiate Athletic Association recommended the Wii Fit as an alternative measure of balance in athletes with a concussion. A central concern regarding the implementation of the Wii Fit is whether it is reliable and valid for measuring balance disturbance in athletes with concussion. Objective: To examine the reliability and validity evidence for the CTSIB, SOT, BESS, Romberg test, and Wii Fit for detecting balance disturbance in athletes with a concussion. Data Sources: Literature considered for review included publications with reliability and validity data for the assessments of balance (CTSIB, SOT, BESS, Romberg test, and Wii Fit) from PubMed, PsycINFO, and CINAHL. Data Extraction: We identified 63 relevant articles for consideration in the review. Of the 63 articles, 28 were considered appropriate for inclusion and 35 were excluded. Data Synthesis: No current reliability or validity information supports the use of the CTSIB, SOT, Romberg test, or Wii Fit for balance assessment in athletes with a concussion. The BESS demonstrated moderate to high reliability (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.87) and low to moderate validity (sensitivity = 34%, specificity = 87%). However, the Romberg test and Wii Fit have been shown to be reliable tools in the assessment of balance in Parkinson patients. Conclusions: The BESS can evaluate balance problems after a concussion. However, it lacks the ability to detect balance problems after the third day of recovery. Further investigation is needed to establish the use of the CTSIB, SOT, Romberg test, and Wii Fit for

  18. Reliability and validity evidence of multiple balance assessments in athletes with a concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Nicholas; Salvatore, Anthony; Powell, Douglas; Reed-Jones, Rebecca

    2014-01-01

    An estimated 300 000 sport-related concussion injuries occur in the United States annually. Approximately 30% of individuals with concussions experience balance disturbances. Common methods of balance assessment include the Clinical Test of Sensory Organization and Balance (CTSIB), the Sensory Organization Test (SOT), the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS), and the Romberg test; however, the National Collegiate Athletic Association recommended the Wii Fit as an alternative measure of balance in athletes with a concussion. A central concern regarding the implementation of the Wii Fit is whether it is reliable and valid for measuring balance disturbance in athletes with concussion. To examine the reliability and validity evidence for the CTSIB, SOT, BESS, Romberg test, and Wii Fit for detecting balance disturbance in athletes with a concussion. Literature considered for review included publications with reliability and validity data for the assessments of balance (CTSIB, SOT, BESS, Romberg test, and Wii Fit) from PubMed, PsycINFO, and CINAHL. We identified 63 relevant articles for consideration in the review. Of the 63 articles, 28 were considered appropriate for inclusion and 35 were excluded. No current reliability or validity information supports the use of the CTSIB, SOT, Romberg test, or Wii Fit for balance assessment in athletes with a concussion. The BESS demonstrated moderate to high reliability (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.87) and low to moderate validity (sensitivity = 34%, specificity = 87%). However, the Romberg test and Wii Fit have been shown to be reliable tools in the assessment of balance in Parkinson patients. The BESS can evaluate balance problems after a concussion. However, it lacks the ability to detect balance problems after the third day of recovery. Further investigation is needed to establish the use of the CTSIB, SOT, Romberg test, and Wii Fit for assessing balance in athletes with concussions.

  19. Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 3; Validation and Test Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Bruce L.

    2010-01-01

    Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the third volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by validation studies that were done on three fan rigs. It concludes with recommended improvements and additional studies for BFaNS.

  20. Predicting survival of de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asian women: systematic review and validation study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Miao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In Asia, up to 25% of breast cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. Given the heterogeneous survival probabilities of de novo metastatic breast cancer, individual outcome prediction is challenging. The aim of the study is to identify existing prognostic models for patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer and validate them in Asia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a systematic review to identify prediction models for metastatic breast cancer. Models were validated in 642 women with de novo metastatic breast cancer registered between 2000 and 2010 in the Singapore Malaysia Hospital Based Breast Cancer Registry. Survival curves for low, intermediate and high-risk groups according to each prognostic score were compared by log-rank test and discrimination of the models was assessed by concordance statistic (C-statistic. RESULTS: We identified 16 prediction models, seven of which were for patients with brain metastases only. Performance status, estrogen receptor status, metastatic site(s and disease-free interval were the most common predictors. We were able to validate nine prediction models. The capacity of the models to discriminate between poor and good survivors varied from poor to fair with C-statistics ranging from 0.50 (95% CI, 0.48-0.53 to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.66. CONCLUSION: The discriminatory performance of existing prediction models for de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asia is modest. Development of an Asian-specific prediction model is needed to improve prognostication and guide decision making.

  1. Development and Validation of a Multidisciplinary Tool for Accurate and Efficient Rotorcraft Noise Prediction (MUTE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Anusonti-Inthra, Phuriwat; Diskin, Boris

    2011-01-01

    A physics-based, systematically coupled, multidisciplinary prediction tool (MUTE) for rotorcraft noise was developed and validated with a wide range of flight configurations and conditions. MUTE is an aggregation of multidisciplinary computational tools that accurately and efficiently model the physics of the source of rotorcraft noise, and predict the noise at far-field observer locations. It uses systematic coupling approaches among multiple disciplines including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD), and high fidelity acoustics. Within MUTE, advanced high-order CFD tools are used around the rotor blade to predict the transonic flow (shock wave) effects, which generate the high-speed impulsive noise. Predictions of the blade-vortex interaction noise in low speed flight are also improved by using the Particle Vortex Transport Method (PVTM), which preserves the wake flow details required for blade/wake and fuselage/wake interactions. The accuracy of the source noise prediction is further improved by utilizing a coupling approach between CFD and CSD, so that the effects of key structural dynamics, elastic blade deformations, and trim solutions are correctly represented in the analysis. The blade loading information and/or the flow field parameters around the rotor blade predicted by the CFD/CSD coupling approach are used to predict the acoustic signatures at far-field observer locations with a high-fidelity noise propagation code (WOPWOP3). The predicted results from the MUTE tool for rotor blade aerodynamic loading and far-field acoustic signatures are compared and validated with a variation of experimental data sets, such as UH60-A data, DNW test data and HART II test data.

  2. Development and Validation of a Prediction Model to Estimate Individual Risk of Pancreatic Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ami; Woo, Sang Myung; Joo, Jungnam; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Lee, Woo Jin; Park, Sang-Jae; Nam, Byung-Ho

    2016-01-01

    There is no reliable screening tool to identify people with high risk of developing pancreatic cancer even though pancreatic cancer represents the fifth-leading cause of cancer-related death in Korea. The goal of this study was to develop an individualized risk prediction model that can be used to screen for asymptomatic pancreatic cancer in Korean men and women. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed using the Cox proportional hazards model based on an 8-year follow-up of a cohort study of 1,289,933 men and 557,701 women in Korea who had biennial examinations in 1996-1997. The performance of the models was evaluated with respect to their discrimination and calibration ability based on the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow type χ2 statistic. A total of 1,634 (0.13%) men and 561 (0.10%) women were newly diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Age, height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and age at smoking initiation were included in the risk prediction model for men. Height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and drinking habit were included in the risk prediction model for women. Smoking was the most significant risk factor for developing pancreatic cancer in both men and women. The risk prediction model exhibited good discrimination and calibration ability, and in external validation it had excellent prediction ability. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed and validated for the first time. The prediction models will be a useful tool for detecting high-risk individuals who may benefit from increased surveillance for pancreatic cancer.

  3. Validity of one-repetition maximum predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro Neto, F; Guanais, P; Dornelas, E; Coutinho, A C B; Costa, R R G

    2017-10-01

    Cross-sectional study. The study aimed (a) to test the cross-validation of current one-repetition maximum (1RM) predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury (SCI); (b) to compare the current 1RM predictive equations to a newly developed equation based on the 4- to 12-repetition maximum test (4-12RM). SARAH Rehabilitation Hospital Network, Brasilia, Brazil. Forty-five men aged 28.0 years with SCI between C6 and L2 causing complete motor impairment were enrolled in the study. Volunteers were tested, in a random order, in 1RM test or 4-12RM with 2-3 interval days. Multiple regression analysis was used to generate an equation for predicting 1RM. There were no significant differences between 1RM test and the current predictive equations. ICC values were significant and were classified as excellent for all current predictive equations. The predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best Bland-Altman results (0.5 kg and 12.8 kg for mean difference and interval range around the differences, respectively). The two created equation models for 1RM demonstrated the same and a high adjusted R 2 (0.971, Ppredictive equations are accurate to assess individuals with SCI at the bench press exercise. However, the predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best associated cross-validity results. A specific 1RM prediction equation was also elaborated for individuals with SCI. The created equation should be tested in order to verify whether it presents better accuracy than the current ones.

  4. CAN UPPER EXTREMITY FUNCTIONAL TESTS PREDICT THE SOFTBALL THROW FOR DISTANCE: A PREDICTIVE VALIDITY INVESTIGATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanney, William J.; Kolber, Morey J.; Davies, George J.; Riemann, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: Understanding the relationships between performance tests and sport activity is important to the rehabilitation specialist. The purpose of this study was two- fold: 1) To identify if relationships exist between tests of upper body strength and power (Single Arm Seated Shot Put, Timed Push-Up, Timed Modified Pull-Up, and The Davies Closed Kinetic Chain Upper Extremity Stability Test, and the softball throw for distance), 2) To determine which variable or group of variables best predicts the performance of a sport specific task (the softball throw for distance). Methods: One hundred eighty subjects (111 females and 69 males, aged 18-45 years) performed the 5 upper extremity tests. The Pearson product moment correlation and a stepwise regression were used to determine whether relationships existed between performance on the tests and which upper extremity test result best explained the performance on the softball throw for distance. Results: There were significant correlations (r=.33 to r=.70, p=0.001) between performance on all of the tests. The modified pull-up test was the best predictor of the performance on the softball throw for distance (r2= 48.7), explaining 48.7% of variation in performance. When weight, height, and age were added to the regression equation the r2 values increased to 64.5, 66.2, and 67.5 respectively. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that several upper extremity tests demonstrate significant relationships with one another and with the softball throw for distance. The modified pull up test was the best predictor of performance on the softball throw for distance. PMID:21712942

  5. Parent- and Self-Reported Dimensions of Oppositionality in Youth: Construct Validity, Concurrent Validity, and the Prediction of Criminal Outcomes in Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aebi, Marcel; Plattner, Belinda; Metzke, Christa Winkler; Bessler, Cornelia; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph

    2013-01-01

    Background: Different dimensions of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) have been found as valid predictors of further mental health problems and antisocial behaviors in youth. The present study aimed at testing the construct, concurrent, and predictive validity of ODD dimensions derived from parent- and self-report measures. Method: Confirmatory…

  6. Advanced validation of CFD-FDTD combined method using highly applicable solver for reentry blackout prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yusuke

    2016-01-01

    An analysis model of plasma flow and electromagnetic waves around a reentry vehicle for radio frequency blackout prediction during aerodynamic heating was developed in this study. The model was validated based on experimental results from the radio attenuation measurement program. The plasma flow properties, such as electron number density, in the shock layer and wake region were obtained using a newly developed unstructured grid solver that incorporated real gas effect models and could treat thermochemically non-equilibrium flow. To predict the electromagnetic waves in plasma, a frequency-dependent finite-difference time-domain method was used. Moreover, the complicated behaviour of electromagnetic waves in the plasma layer during atmospheric reentry was clarified at several altitudes. The prediction performance of the combined model was evaluated with profiles and peak values of the electron number density in the plasma layer. In addition, to validate the models, the signal losses measured during communication with the reentry vehicle were directly compared with the predicted results. Based on the study, it was suggested that the present analysis model accurately predicts the radio frequency blackout and plasma attenuation of electromagnetic waves in plasma in communication. (paper)

  7. Narcissism predicts impulsive buying: phenotypic and genetic evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Huajian; Shi, Yuanyuan; Fang, Xiang; Luo, Yu L. L.

    2015-01-01

    Impulsive buying makes billions of dollars for retail businesses every year, particularly in an era of thriving e-commerce. Narcissism, characterized by impulsivity and materialism, may serve as a potential antecedent to impulsive buying. To test this hypothesis, two studies examined the relationship between narcissism and impulsive buying. In Study 1, we surveyed an online sample and found that while adaptive narcissism was not correlated with impulsive buying, maladaptive narcissism was significantly predictive of the impulsive buying tendency. By investigating 304 twin pairs, Study 2 showed that global narcissism and its two components, adaptive and maladaptive narcissism, as well as the impulsive buying tendency were heritable. The study found, moreover, that the connections between global narcissism and impulsive buying, and between maladaptive narcissism and impulsive buying were genetically based. These findings not only establish a link between narcissism and impulsive buying but also help to identify the origins of the link. The present studies deepen our understanding of narcissism, impulsive buying, and their interrelationship. PMID:26217251

  8. Narcissism predicts impulsive buying: phenotypic and genetic evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Huajian; Shi, Yuanyuan; Fang, Xiang; Luo, Yu L L

    2015-01-01

    Impulsive buying makes billions of dollars for retail businesses every year, particularly in an era of thriving e-commerce. Narcissism, characterized by impulsivity and materialism, may serve as a potential antecedent to impulsive buying. To test this hypothesis, two studies examined the relationship between narcissism and impulsive buying. In Study 1, we surveyed an online sample and found that while adaptive narcissism was not correlated with impulsive buying, maladaptive narcissism was significantly predictive of the impulsive buying tendency. By investigating 304 twin pairs, Study 2 showed that global narcissism and its two components, adaptive and maladaptive narcissism, as well as the impulsive buying tendency were heritable. The study found, moreover, that the connections between global narcissism and impulsive buying, and between maladaptive narcissism and impulsive buying were genetically based. These findings not only establish a link between narcissism and impulsive buying but also help to identify the origins of the link. The present studies deepen our understanding of narcissism, impulsive buying, and their interrelationship.

  9. Narcissism predicts impulsive buying: phenotypic and genetic evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huajian eCai

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Impulsive buying makes billions of dollars for retail businesses every year, particularly in an era of thriving e-commerce. Narcissism, characterized by impulsivity and materialism, may serve as a potential antecedent to impulsive buying. To test this hypothesis, two studies examined the relationship between narcissism and impulsive buying. In study 1, we surveyed narcissism and the impulsive buying tendency among an online sample and found that while adaptive narcissism was not correlated with impulsive buying, maladaptive narcissism was significantly predictive of the impulsive buying tendency. By investigating narcissism and the impulsive buying tendency in 304 twin pairs, study 2 showed that global narcissism and its two components, adaptive and maladaptive narcissism, as well as the impulsive buying tendency were heritable. The study found, moreover, that the connections between global narcissism and impulsive buying, and between maladaptive narcissism and impulsive buying were genetically based. These findings not only establish a link between narcissism and impulsive buying but also help to identify the origins of the link. The present studies deepen our understanding of narcissism, impulsive buying, and their interrelationship.

  10. Predicting surgical site infection after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

    2014-09-01

    The impact of surgical site infection (SSI) is substantial. Although previous study has determined relative risk and odds ratio (OR) values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of SSI, rather than relative risk or OR values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of SSI after spine surgery. This study performs a multivariate analysis of SSI after spine surgery using a large prospective surgical registry. Using the results of this analysis, this study will then create and validate a predictive model for SSI after spine surgery. The patient sample is from a high-quality surgical registry from our two institutions with prospectively collected, detailed demographic, comorbidity, and complication data. An SSI that required return to the operating room for surgical debridement. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,532 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication details recorded for 2 years after the surgery, we identified several risk factors for SSI after multivariate analysis. Using the beta coefficients from those regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of SSI after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created a predictive model based on our beta coefficients from our multivariate analysis. The final predictive model for SSI had a receiver-operator curve characteristic of 0.72, considered to be a fair measure. The final model has been uploaded for use on SpineSage.com. We present a validated model for predicting SSI after spine surgery. The value in this model is that it gives

  11. Systematic validation of predicted microRNAs for cyclin D1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Qiong; Feng, Ming-Guang; Mo, Yin-Yuan

    2009-01-01

    MicroRNAs are the endogenous small non-coding RNA molecules capable of silencing protein coding genes at the posttranscriptional level. Based on computer-aided predictions, a single microRNA could have over a hundred of targets. On the other hand, a single protein-coding gene could be targeted by many potential microRNAs. However, only a relatively small number of these predicted microRNA/mRNA interactions are experimentally validated, and no systematic validation has been carried out using a reporter system. In this study, we used luciferease reporter assays to validate microRNAs that can silence cyclin D1 (CCND1) because CCND1 is a well known proto-oncogene implicated in a variety of types of cancers. We chose miRanda (http://www.microRNA.org) as a primary prediction method. We then cloned 51 of 58 predicted microRNA precursors into pCDH-CMV-MCS-EF1-copGFP and tested for their effect on the luciferase reporter carrying the 3'-untranslated region (UTR) of CCND1 gene. Real-time PCR revealed the 45 of 51 cloned microRNA precursors expressed a relatively high level of the exogenous microRNAs which were used in our validation experiments. By an arbitrary cutoff of 35% reduction, we identified 7 microRNAs that were able to suppress Luc-CCND1-UTR activity. Among them, 4 of them were previously validated targets and the rest 3 microRNAs were validated to be positive in this study. Of interest, we found that miR-503 not only suppressed the luciferase activity, but also suppressed the endogenous CCND1 both at protein and mRNA levels. Furthermore, we showed that miR-503 was able to reduce S phase cell populations and caused cell growth inhibition, suggesting that miR-503 may be a putative tumor suppressor. This study provides a more comprehensive picture of microRNA/CCND1 interactions and it further demonstrates the importance of experimental target validation

  12. Applying hospital evidence to paramedicine: issues of indirectness, validity and knowledge translation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigham, Blair; Welsford, Michelle

    2015-05-01

    The practice of emergency medicine (EM) has been intertwined with emergency medical services (EMS) for more than 40 years. In this commentary, we explore the practice of translating hospital based evidence into the prehospital setting. We will challenge both EMS and EM dogma-bringing hospital care to patients in the field is not always better. In providing examples of therapies championed in hospitals that have failed to translate into the field, we will discuss the unique prehospital environment, and why evidence from the hospital setting cannot necessarily be translated to the prehospital field. Paramedicine is maturing so that the capability now exists to conduct practice-specific research that can inform best practices. Before translation from the hospital environment is implemented, evidence must be evaluated by people with expertise in three domains: critical appraisal, EM, and EMS. Scientific evidence should be assessed for: quality and bias; directness, generalizability, and validity to the EMS population; effect size and anticipated benefit from prehospital application; feasibility (including economic evaluation, human resource availability in the mobile environment); and patient and provider safety.

  13. Six factors of adult dyslexia assesed by cognitive tests and self-report questions: Very high predictive validity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tamboer, P.; Vorst, H.C.M.; de Jong, P.F.

    2017-01-01

    The Multiple Diagnostic Digital Dyslexia Test for Adults (MDDDT-A) consists of 12 newly developed tests and self-report questions in the Dutch language. Predictive validity and construct validity were investigated and compared with validity of a standard test battery of dyslexia (STB) in a sample of

  14. Assessment and validation of the CAESAR predictive model for bioconcentration factor (BCF in fish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Chiara

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bioconcentration factor (BCF describes the behaviour of a chemical in terms of its likelihood of concentrating in organisms in the environment. It is a fundamental property in recent regulations, such as the European Community Regulation on chemicals and their safe use or the Globally Harmonized System for classification, labelling and packaging. These new regulations consider the possibility of reducing or waiving animal tests using alternative methods, such as in silico methods. This study assessed and validated the CAESAR predictive model for BCF in fish. Results To validate the model, new experimental data were collected and used to create an external set, as a second validation set (a first validation exercise had been done just after model development. The performance of the model was compared with BCFBAF v3.00. For continuous values and for classification purposes the CAESAR BCF model gave better results than BCFBAF v3.00 for the chemicals in the applicability domain of the model. R2 and Q2 were good and accuracy in classification higher than 90%. Applying an offset of 0.5 to the compounds predicted with BCF close to the thresholds, the number of false negatives (the most dangerous errors dropped considerably (less than 0.6% of chemicals. Conclusions The CAESAR model for BCF is useful for regulatory purposes because it is robust, reliable and predictive. It is also fully transparent and documented and has a well-defined applicability domain, as required by REACH. The model is freely available on the CAESAR web site and easy to use. The reliability of the model reporting the six most similar compounds found in the CAESAR dataset, and their experimental and predicted values, can be evaluated.

  15. External Validation of Prediction Models for Pneumonia in Primary Care Patients with Lower Respiratory Tract Infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schierenberg, Alwin; Minnaard, Margaretha C; Hopstaken, Rogier M

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains difficult to diagnose in primary care. Prediction models based on signs and symptoms (S&S) serve to minimize the diagnostic uncertainty. External validation of these models is essential before implementation into routine practice. In this study all published S&S mode...... discriminative accuracy coupled with reasonable to good calibration across the IPD of different study populations. This model is therefore the main candidate for primary care use....

  16. Prediction and Validation of Heat Release Direct Injection Diesel Engine Using Multi-Zone Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anang Nugroho, Bagus; Sugiarto, Bambang; Prawoto; Shalahuddin, Lukman

    2014-04-01

    The objective of this study is to develop simulation model which capable to predict heat release of diesel combustion accurately in efficient computation time. A multi-zone packet model has been applied to solve the combustion phenomena inside diesel cylinder. The model formulations are presented first and then the numerical results are validated on a single cylinder direct injection diesel engine at various engine speed and timing injections. The model were found to be promising to fulfill the objective above.

  17. Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS)

    OpenAIRE

    Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

    2012-01-01

    Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to cri...

  18. Predictive validity of examinations at the Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) level

    OpenAIRE

    Farrugia, Josette; Ventura, Frank

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the predictive validity of results obtained by 16-year-old Maltese students in the May 2004 Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) examinations in Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Mathematics, Computing, English and Maltese for the Advanced level examinations in these subjects taken by the same students two years later. The study checks whether the SEC level is a good foundation for the higher level, the likelihood of obtaining a high grade at A-level from particular SEC result...

  19. The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

    2013-01-01

    AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

  20. Validation of the Portuguese version of the Evidence-Based Practice Questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Pedro Gomes Pereira

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: to describe the process of translation and linguistic and cultural validation of the Evidence Based Practice Questionnaire for the Portuguese context: Questionário de Eficácia Clínica e Prática Baseada em Evidências (QECPBE. METHOD: a methodological and cross-sectional study was developed. The translation and back translation was performed according to traditional standards. Principal Components Analysis with orthogonal rotation according to the Varimax method was used to verify the QECPBE's psychometric characteristics, followed by confirmatory factor analysis. Internal consistency was determined by Cronbach's alpha. Data were collected between December 2013 and February 2014. RESULTS: 358 nurses delivering care in a hospital facility in North of Portugal participated in the study. QECPBE contains 20 items and three subscales: Practice (α=0.74; Attitudes (α=0.75; Knowledge/Skills and Competencies (α=0.95, presenting an overall internal consistency of α=0.74. The tested model explained 55.86% of the variance and presented good fit: χ2(167=520.009; p = 0.0001; χ2df=3.114; CFI=0.908; GFI=0.865; PCFI=0.798; PGFI=0.678; RMSEA=0.077 (CI90%=0.07-0.08. CONCLUSION: confirmatory factor analysis revealed the questionnaire is valid and appropriate to be used in the studied context.

  1. Predictive validity of callous-unemotional traits measured in early adolescence with respect to multiple antisocial outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Robert J; Witkiewitz, Katie; Kotler, Julie S

    2010-11-01

    This study investigated the predictive validity of youth callous-unemotional (CU) traits, as measured in early adolescence (Grade 7) by the Antisocial Process Screening Device (APSD; Frick & Hare, 2001), in a longitudinal sample (N = 754). Antisocial outcomes, assessed in adolescence and early adulthood, included self-reported general delinquency from 7th grade through 2 years post-high school, self-reported serious crimes through 2 years post-high school, juvenile and adult arrest records through 1 year post-high school, and antisocial personality disorder symptoms and diagnosis at 2 years post-high school. CU traits measured in 7th grade were highly predictive of 5 of the 6 antisocial outcomes-general delinquency, juvenile and adult arrests, and early adult antisocial personality disorder criterion count and diagnosis-over and above prior and concurrent conduct problem behavior (i.e., criterion counts of oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (criterion count). Incorporating a CU traits specifier for those with a diagnosis of conduct disorder improved the positive prediction of antisocial outcomes, with a very low false-positive rate. There was minimal evidence of moderation by sex, race, or urban/rural status. Urban/rural status moderated one finding, with being from an urban area associated with stronger relations between CU traits and adult arrests. Findings clearly support the inclusion of CU traits as a specifier for the diagnosis of conduct disorder, at least with respect to predictive validity. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

  2. Incremental Validity of Personality Measures in Predicting Underwater Performance and Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colodro, Joaquín; Garcés-de-Los-Fayos, Enrique J; López-García, Juan J; Colodro-Conde, Lucía

    2015-03-17

    Intelligence and personality traits are currently considered effective predictors of human behavior and job performance. However, there are few studies about their relevance in the underwater environment. Data from a sample of military personnel performing scuba diving courses were analyzed with regression techniques, testing the contribution of individual differences and ascertaining the incremental validity of the personality in an environment with extreme psychophysical demands. The results confirmed the incremental validity of personality traits (ΔR 2 = .20, f 2 = .25) over the predictive contribution of general mental ability (ΔR 2 = .07, f 2 = .08) in divers' performance. Moreover, personality (R(L)2 = .34) also showed a higher validity to predict underwater adaptation than general mental ability ( R(L)2 = .09). The ROC curve indicated 86% of the maximum possible discrimination power for the prediction of underwater adaptation, AUC = .86, p personality traits as predictors of an effective response to the changing circumstances of military scuba diving. They also may improve the understanding of the behavioral effects and psychophysiological complications of diving and can also provide guidance for psychological intervention and prevention of risk in this extreme environment.

  3. Measurement of predictive validity in violence risk assessment studies: a second-order systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jay P; Desmarais, Sarah L; Van Dorn, Richard A

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the present review was to examine how predictive validity is analyzed and reported in studies of instruments used to assess violence risk. We reviewed 47 predictive validity studies published between 1990 and 2011 of 25 instruments that were included in two recent systematic reviews. Although all studies reported receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and the area under the curve (AUC) performance indicator, this methodology was defined inconsistently and findings often were misinterpreted. In addition, there was between-study variation in benchmarks used to determine whether AUCs were small, moderate, or large in magnitude. Though virtually all of the included instruments were designed to produce categorical estimates of risk - through the use of either actuarial risk bins or structured professional judgments - only a minority of studies calculated performance indicators for these categorical estimates. In addition to AUCs, other performance indicators, such as correlation coefficients, were reported in 60% of studies, but were infrequently defined or interpreted. An investigation of sources of heterogeneity did not reveal significant variation in reporting practices as a function of risk assessment approach (actuarial vs. structured professional judgment), study authorship, geographic location, type of journal (general vs. specialized audience), sample size, or year of publication. Findings suggest a need for standardization of predictive validity reporting to improve comparison across studies and instruments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Predicting Relapse among Young Adults: Psychometric Validation of the Advanced Warning of Relapse (AWARE) Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, John F.; Hoeppner, Bettina B.; Urbanoski, Karen A.; Slaymaker, Valerie

    2011-01-01

    Objective Failure to maintain abstinence despite incurring severe harm is perhaps the key defining feature of addiction. Relapse prevention strategies have been developed to attenuate this propensity to relapse, but predicting who will, and who will not, relapse has stymied attempts to more efficiently tailor treatments according to relapse risk profile. Here we examine the psychometric properties of a promising relapse risk measure - the Advance WArning of RElapse scale (AWARE) scale (Miller and Harris, 2000) in an understudied but clinically important sample of young adults. Method Inpatient youth (N=303; Age 18-24; 26% female) completed the AWARE scale and the Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI) at the end of residential treatment, and at 1-, 3-, and 6-months following discharge. Internal and convergent validity was tested for each of these four timepoints using confirmatory factor analysis and correlations (with BSI scores). Predictive validity was tested for relapse 1, 3, and 6 months following discharge, as was incremental utility, where AWARE scores were used as predictors of any substance use while controlling for treatment entry substance use severity and having spent time in a controlled environment following treatment. Results Confirmatory factor analysis revealed a single, internally consistent, 25-item factor that demonstrated convergent validity and predicted subsequent relapse alone and when controlling for other important relapse risk predictors. Conclusions The AWARE scale may be a useful and efficient clinical tool for assessing short-term relapse risk among young people and, thus, could serve to enhance the effectiveness of relapse prevention efforts. PMID:21700396

  5. Predicting relapse among young adults: psychometric validation of the Advanced WArning of RElapse (AWARE) scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, John F; Hoeppner, Bettina B; Urbanoski, Karen A; Slaymaker, Valerie

    2011-10-01

    Failure to maintain abstinence despite incurring severe harm is perhaps the key defining feature of addiction. Relapse prevention strategies have been developed to attenuate this propensity to relapse, but predicting who will, and who will not, relapse has stymied attempts to more efficiently tailor treatments according to relapse risk profile. Here we examine the psychometric properties of a promising relapse risk measure-the Advance WArning of RElapse (AWARE) scale (Miller & Harris, 2000) in an understudied but clinically important sample of young adults. Inpatient youth (N=303; Ages 18-24; 26% female) completed the AWARE scale and the Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI) at the end of residential treatment, and at 1-, 3-, and 6-months following discharge. Internal and convergent validity was tested for each of these four timepoints using confirmatory factor analysis and correlations (with BSI scores). Predictive validity was tested for relapse 1, 3, and 6 months following discharge, as was incremental utility, where AWARE scores were used as predictors of any substance use while controlling for treatment entry substance use severity and having spent time in a controlled environment following treatment. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed a single, internally consistent, 25-item factor that demonstrated convergent validity and predicted subsequent relapse alone and when controlling for other important relapse risk predictors. The AWARE scale may be a useful and efficient clinical tool for assessing short-term relapse risk among young people and, thus, could serve to enhance the effectiveness of relapse prevention efforts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. In-Hospital Risk Prediction for Post-stroke Depression. Development and Validation of the Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thóra Hafsteinsdóttir; Roelof G.A. Ettema; Diederick Grobbee; Prof. Dr. Marieke J. Schuurmans; Janneke van Man-van Ginkel; Eline Lindeman

    2013-01-01

    Background and Purpose—The timely detection of post-stroke depression is complicated by a decreasing length of hospital stay. Therefore, the Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale was developed and validated. The Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale is a clinical prediction model for the early

  7. Validity evidence for the Security Scale as a measure of perceived attachment security in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Ryzin, Mark J; Leve, Leslie D

    2012-04-01

    In this study, the validity of a self-report measure of children's perceived attachment security (the Kerns Security Scale) was tested using adolescents. With regards to predictive validity, the Security Scale was significantly associated with (1) observed mother-adolescent interactions during conflict and (2) parent- and teacher-rated social competence. With regards to convergent validity, the Security Scale was significantly associated with all subscales of the Adult Attachment Scale (i.e., Depend, Anxiety, and Close) as measured 3 years later. Further, these links were found even after controlling for mother-child relationship quality as assessed by the Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment (IPPA), and chi-square difference tests indicated that the Security Scale was generally a stronger predictor as compared to the IPPA. These results suggest that the Security Scale can be used to assess perceived attachment security across both childhood and adolescence, and thus could contribute significantly to developmental research during this period. Copyright © 2011 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Evidence for validity within workplace assessment: the Longitudinal Evaluation of Performance (LEP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prescott-Clements, Linda; van der Vleuten, Cees P M; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; Hurst, Yvonne; Rennie, James S

    2008-05-01

    The drive towards valid and reliable assessment methods for health professions' training is becoming increasingly focused towards authentic models of workplace performance assessment. This study investigates the validity of such a method, longitudinal evaluation of performance (LEP), which has been implemented in the assessment of postgraduate dental trainees in Scotland. Although it is similar in format to the mini-CEX (mini clinical evaluation exercise) and other tools that use global ratings for assessing performance in the workplace, a number of differences exist in the way in which the LEP has been implemented. These include the use of a reference point for evaluators' judgement that represents the standard expected upon completion of the training, flexibility, a greater range of cases assessed and the use of frequency scores within feedback to identify trainees' progress over time. A range of qualitative and quantitative data were collected and analysed from 2 consecutive cohorts of trainees in Scotland (2002-03 and 2003-04). There is rich evidence supporting the validity, educational impact and feasibility of the LEP. In particular, a great deal of support was given by trainers for the use of a fixed reference point for judgements, despite initial concerns that this might be demotivating to trainees. Trainers were highly positive about this approach and considered it useful in identifying trainees' progress and helping to drive learning. The LEP has been successful in combining a strong formative approach to continuous assessment with the collection of evidence on performance within the workplace that (alongside other tools within an assessment system) can contribute towards a summative decision regarding competence.

  9. Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

    2016-03-01

    Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Screening tool for oropharyngeal dysphagia in stroke - Part I: evidence of validity based on the content and response processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Tatiana Magalhães de; Cola, Paula Cristina; Pernambuco, Leandro de Araújo; Magalhães, Hipólito Virgílio; Magnoni, Carlos Daniel; Silva, Roberta Gonçalves da

    2017-08-17

    The aim of the present study was to identify the evidence of validity based on the content and response process of the Rastreamento de Disfagia Orofaríngea no Acidente Vascular Encefálico (RADAVE; "Screening Tool for Oropharyngeal Dysphagia in Stroke"). The criteria used to elaborate the questions were based on a literature review. A group of judges consisting of 19 different health professionals evaluated the relevance and representativeness of the questions, and the results were analyzed using the Content Validity Index. In order to evidence validity based on the response processes, 23 health professionals administered the screening tool and analyzed the questions using a structured scale and cognitive interview. The RADAVE structured to be applied in two stages. The first version consisted of 18 questions in stage I and 11 questions in stage II. Eight questions in stage I and four in stage II did not reach the minimum Content Validity Index, requiring reformulation by the authors. The cognitive interview demonstrated some misconceptions. New adjustments were made and the final version was produced with 12 questions in stage I and six questions in stage II. It was possible to develop a screening tool for dysphagia in stroke with adequate evidence of validity based on content and response processes. Both validity evidences obtained so far allowed to adjust the screening tool in relation to its construct. The next studies will analyze the other evidences of validity and the measures of accuracy.

  11. Developing and Validating a Survival Prediction Model for NSCLC Patients Through Distributed Learning Across 3 Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochems, Arthur; Deist, Timo M; El Naqa, Issam; Kessler, Marc; Mayo, Chuck; Reeves, Jackson; Jolly, Shruti; Matuszak, Martha; Ten Haken, Randall; van Soest, Johan; Oberije, Cary; Faivre-Finn, Corinne; Price, Gareth; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Lambin, Philippe; Dekker, Andre

    2017-10-01

    Tools for survival prediction for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiation or radiation therapy are of limited quality. In this work, we developed a predictive model of survival at 2 years. The model is based on a large volume of historical patient data and serves as a proof of concept to demonstrate the distributed learning approach. Clinical data from 698 lung cancer patients, treated with curative intent with chemoradiation or radiation therapy alone, were collected and stored at 2 different cancer institutes (559 patients at Maastro clinic (Netherlands) and 139 at Michigan university [United States]). The model was further validated on 196 patients originating from The Christie (United Kingdon). A Bayesian network model was adapted for distributed learning (the animation can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDJFOxpwqEA). Two-year posttreatment survival was chosen as the endpoint. The Maastro clinic cohort data are publicly available at https://www.cancerdata.org/publication/developing-and-validating-survival-prediction-model-nsclc-patients-through-distributed, and the developed models can be found at www.predictcancer.org. Variables included in the final model were T and N category, age, performance status, and total tumor dose. The model has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 on the external validation set and an AUC of 0.62 on a 5-fold cross validation. A model based on the T and N category performed with an AUC of 0.47 on the validation set, significantly worse than our model (PLearning the model in a centralized or distributed fashion yields a minor difference on the probabilities of the conditional probability tables (0.6%); the discriminative performance of the models on the validation set is similar (P=.26). Distributed learning from federated databases allows learning of predictive models on data originating from multiple institutions while avoiding many of the data-sharing barriers. We believe that

  12. Predictive validity of childhood oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder: implications for the DSM-V.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Jeffrey D; Waldman, Irwin; Lahey, Benjamin B

    2010-11-01

    Data are presented from 3 studies of children and adolescents to evaluate the predictive validity of childhood oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and conduct disorder (CD) as defined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) and the International Classification of Diseases, Version 10 (ICD-10; World Health Organization, 1992). The present analyses strongly support the predictive validity of these diagnoses by showing that they predict both future psychopathology and enduring functional impairment. Furthermore, the present findings generally support the hierarchical developmental hypothesis in DSM-IV that some children with ODD progress to childhood-onset CD, and some youth with CD progress to antisocial personality disorder (APD). Nonetheless, they reveal that CD does not always co-occur with ODD, particularly during adolescence. Importantly, the present findings suggest that ICD-10 diagnostic criteria for ODD, which treat CD symptoms as ODD symptoms when diagnostic criteria for CD are not met, identify more functionally impaired children than the more restrictive DSM-IV definition of ODD. Filling this "hole" in the DSM-IV criteria for ODD should be a priority for the DSM-V. In addition, the present findings suggest that although the psychopathic trait of interpersonal callousness in childhood independently predicts future APD, these findings do not confirm the hypothesis that callousness distinguishes a subset of children with CD with an elevated risk for APD. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

  13. Computational prediction and experimental validation of Ciona intestinalis microRNA genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasquinelli Amy E

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study reports the first collection of validated microRNA genes in the sea squirt, Ciona intestinalis. MicroRNAs are processed from hairpin precursors to ~22 nucleotide RNAs that base pair to target mRNAs and inhibit expression. As a member of the subphylum Urochordata (Tunicata whose larval form has a notochord, the sea squirt is situated at the emergence of vertebrates, and therefore may provide information about the evolution of molecular regulators of early development. Results In this study, computational methods were used to predict 14 microRNA gene families in Ciona intestinalis. The microRNA prediction algorithm utilizes configurable microRNA sequence conservation and stem-loop specificity parameters, grouping by miRNA family, and phylogenetic conservation to the related species, Ciona savignyi. The expression for 8, out of 9 attempted, of the putative microRNAs in the adult tissue of Ciona intestinalis was validated by Northern blot analyses. Additionally, a target prediction algorithm was implemented, which identified a high confidence list of 240 potential target genes. Over half of the predicted targets can be grouped into the gene ontology categories of metabolism, transport, regulation of transcription, and cell signaling. Conclusion The computational techniques implemented in this study can be applied to other organisms and serve to increase the understanding of the origins of non-coding RNAs, embryological and cellular developmental pathways, and the mechanisms for microRNA-controlled gene regulatory networks.

  14. Perioperative Respiratory Adverse Events in Pediatric Ambulatory Anesthesia: Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanyam, Rajeev; Yeramaneni, Samrat; Hossain, Mohamed Monir; Anneken, Amy M; Varughese, Anna M

    2016-05-01

    Perioperative respiratory adverse events (PRAEs) are the most common cause of serious adverse events in children receiving anesthesia. Our primary aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction tool for the occurrence of PRAE from the onset of anesthesia induction until discharge from the postanesthesia care unit in children younger than 18 years undergoing elective ambulatory anesthesia for surgery and radiology. The incidence of PRAE was studied. We analyzed data from 19,059 patients from our department's quality improvement database. The predictor variables were age, sex, ASA physical status, morbid obesity, preexisting pulmonary disorder, preexisting neurologic disorder, and location of ambulatory anesthesia (surgery or radiology). Composite PRAE was defined as the presence of any 1 of the following events: intraoperative bronchospasm, intraoperative laryngospasm, postoperative apnea, postoperative laryngospasm, postoperative bronchospasm, or postoperative prolonged oxygen requirement. Development and validation of the risk prediction tool for PRAE were performed using a split sampling technique to split the database into 2 independent cohorts based on the year when the patient received ambulatory anesthesia for surgery and radiology using logistic regression. A risk score was developed based on the regression coefficients from the validation tool. The performance of the risk prediction tool was assessed by using tests of discrimination and calibration. The overall incidence of composite PRAE was 2.8%. The derivation cohort included 8904 patients, and the validation cohort included 10,155 patients. The risk of PRAE was 3.9% in the development cohort and 1.8% in the validation cohort. Age ≤ 3 years (versus >3 years), ASA physical status II or III (versus ASA physical status I), morbid obesity, preexisting pulmonary disorder, and surgery (versus radiology) significantly predicted the occurrence of PRAE in a multivariable logistic regression

  15. Computational Prediction and Rationalization, and Experimental Validation of Handedness Induction in Helical Aromatic Oligoamide Foldamers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhiwei; Hu, Xiaobo; Abramyan, Ara M; Mészáros, Ádám; Csékei, Márton; Kotschy, András; Huc, Ivan; Pophristic, Vojislava

    2017-03-13

    Metadynamics simulations were used to describe the conformational energy landscapes of several helically folded aromatic quinoline carboxamide oligomers bearing a single chiral group at either the C or N terminus. The calculations allowed the prediction of whether a helix handedness bias occurs under the influence of the chiral group and gave insight into the interactions (sterics, electrostatics, hydrogen bonds) responsible for a particular helix sense preference. In the case of camphanyl-based and morpholine-based chiral groups, experimental data confirming the validity of the calculations were already available. New chiral groups with a proline residue were also investigated and were predicted to induce handedness. This prediction was verified experimentally through the synthesis of proline-containing monomers, their incorporation into an oligoamide sequence by solid phase synthesis and the investigation of handedness induction by NMR spectroscopy and circular dichroism. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. DES Prediction of Cavitation Erosion and Its Validation for a Ship Scale Propeller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponkratov, Dmitriy, Dr

    2015-12-01

    Lloyd's Register Technical Investigation Department (LR TID) have developed numerical functions for the prediction of cavitation erosion aggressiveness within Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. These functions were previously validated for a model scale hydrofoil and ship scale rudder [1]. For the current study the functions were applied to a cargo ship's full scale propeller, on which the severe cavitation erosion was reported. The performed Detach Eddy Simulation (DES) required a fine computational mesh (approximately 22 million cells), together with a very small time step (2.0E-4 s). As the cavitation for this type of vessel is primarily caused by a highly non-uniform wake, the hull was also included in the simulation. The applied method under predicted the cavitation extent and did not fully resolve the tip vortex; however, the areas of cavitation collapse were captured successfully. Consequently, the developed functions showed a very good prediction of erosion areas, as confirmed by comparison with underwater propeller inspection results.

  17. Validation of water sorption-based clay prediction models for calcareous soils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arthur, Emmanuel; Razzaghi, Fatemeh; Moosavi, Ali

    2017-01-01

    on prediction accuracy. The soils had clay content ranging from 9 to 61% and CaCO3 from 24 to 97%. The three water sorption models considered showed a reasonably fair prediction of the clay content from water sorption at 28% relative humidity (RMSE and ME values ranging from 10.6 to 12.1 and −8.1 to −4......Soil particle size distribution (PSD), particularly the active clay fraction, mediates soil engineering, agronomic and environmental functions. The tedious and costly nature of traditional methods of determining PSD prompted the development of water sorption-based models for determining the clay...... fraction. The applicability of such models to semi-arid soils with significant amounts of calcium carbonate and/or gypsum is unknown. The objective of this study was to validate three water sorption-based clay prediction models for 30 calcareous soils from Iran and identify the effect of CaCO3...

  18. Development and validation of a predictive technology for creep closure of underground rooms in salt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munson, D.E.; DeVries, K.L.

    1991-07-01

    Because of the concern for public health and safety, when compared to normal engineering practice, radioactive waste repositories have quite unusual requirements governing performance assessment. In part, performance assessment requires prediction of time-dependent or creep response of the repository hundreds to thousands of years into the future. In salt, one specific need is to predict, with confidence, the time at which the repository rooms creep closed sufficiently to encapsulate the waste and seal the repository. Thus, a major task of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Program is to develop and validate this predictive technology to calculate creep of repository rooms in the bedded salt deposits of Southeastern New Mexico. 19 refs., 15 figs., 2 tabs

  19. Moderators and Mediators in Social Work Research: Toward a More Ecologically Valid Evidence Base for Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magill, Molly

    2012-01-01

    Summary Evidence-based practice involves the consistent and critical consumption of the social work research literature. As methodologies advance, primers to guide such efforts are often needed. In the present work, common statistical methods for testing moderation and mediation are identified, summarized, and corresponding examples, drawn from the substance abuse, domestic violence, and mental health literature, are provided. Findings While methodologically complex, analyses of these third variable effects can provide an optimal fit for the complexity involved in the provision of evidence-based social work services. While a moderator may identify the trait or state requirement for a causal relationship to occur, a mediator is concerned with the transmission of that relationship. In social work practice, these are questions of “under what conditions and for whom?” and of the “how?” of behavior change. Implications Implications include a need for greater attention to these methods among practitioners and evaluation researchers. With knowledge gained through the present review, social workers can benefit from a more ecologically valid evidence base for practice. PMID:22833701

  20. Development and validation of multivariable predictive model for thromboembolic events in lymphoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antic, Darko; Milic, Natasa; Nikolovski, Srdjan; Todorovic, Milena; Bila, Jelena; Djurdjevic, Predrag; Andjelic, Bosko; Djurasinovic, Vladislava; Sretenovic, Aleksandra; Vukovic, Vojin; Jelicic, Jelena; Hayman, Suzanne; Mihaljevic, Biljana

    2016-10-01

    Lymphoma patients are at increased risk of thromboembolic events but thromboprophylaxis in these patients is largely underused. We sought to develop and validate a simple model, based on individual clinical and laboratory patient characteristics that would designate lymphoma patients at risk for thromboembolic event. The study population included 1,820 lymphoma patients who were treated in the Lymphoma Departments at the Clinics of Hematology, Clinical Center of Serbia and Clinical Center Kragujevac. The model was developed using data from a derivation cohort (n = 1,236), and further assessed in the validation cohort (n = 584). Sixty-five patients (5.3%) in the derivation cohort and 34 (5.8%) patients in the validation cohort developed thromboembolic events. The variables independently associated with risk for thromboembolism were: previous venous and/or arterial events, mediastinal involvement, BMI>30 kg/m(2) , reduced mobility, extranodal localization, development of neutropenia and hemoglobin level 3). For patients classified at risk (intermediate and high-risk scores), the model produced negative predictive value of 98.5%, positive predictive value of 25.1%, sensitivity of 75.4%, and specificity of 87.5%. A high-risk score had positive predictive value of 65.2%. The diagnostic performance measures retained similar values in the validation cohort. Developed prognostic Thrombosis Lymphoma - ThroLy score is more specific for lymphoma patients than any other available score targeting thrombosis in cancer patients. Am. J. Hematol. 91:1014-1019, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Validation of CRIB II for prediction of mortality in premature babies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastogi, Pallav Kumar; Sreenivas, V; Kumar, Nirmal

    2010-02-01

    Validation of Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) score in predicting the neonatal mortality in preterm neonates < or = 32 weeks gestational age. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care neonatal unit. 86 consecutively born preterm neonates with gestational age < or = 32 weeks. The five variables related to CRIB II were recorded within the first hour of admission for data analysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to check the accuracy of the mortality prediction. HL Goodness of fit test was used to see the discrepancy between observed and expected outcomes. A total of 86 neonates (males 59.6% mean birthweight: 1228 +/- 398 grams; mean gestational age: 28.3 +/- 2.4 weeks) were enrolled in the study, of which 17 (19.8%) left hospital against medical advice (LAMA) before reaching the study end point. Among 69 neonates completing the study, 24 (34.8%) had adverse outcome during hospital stay and 45 (65.2%) had favorable outcome. CRIB II correctly predicted adverse outcome in 90.3% (Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test P=0.6). Area under curve (AUC) for CRIB II was 0.9032. In intention to treat analysis with LAMA cases included as survivors, the mortality prediction was 87%. If these were included as having died then mortality prediction was 83.1%. The CRIB II score was found to be a good predictive instrument for mortality in preterm infants < or = 32 weeks gestation.

  2. Positive predictive value of infective endocarditis in the Danish National Patient Registry: a validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Østergaard, Lauge; Adelborg, Kasper; Sundbøll, Jens; Pedersen, Lars; Loldrup Fosbøl, Emil; Schmidt, Morten

    2018-05-30

    The positive predictive value of an infective endocarditis diagnosis is approximately 80% in the Danish National Patient Registry. However, since infective endocarditis is a heterogeneous disease implying long-term intravenous treatment, we hypothesiszed that the positive predictive value varies by length of hospital stay. A total of 100 patients with first-time infective endocarditis in the Danish National Patient Registry were identified from January 2010 - December 2012 at the University hospital of Aarhus and regional hospitals of Herning and Randers. Medical records were reviewed. We calculated the positive predictive value according to admission length, and separately for patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device and a prosthetic heart valve using the Wilson score method. Among the 92 medical records available for review, the majority of the patients had admission length ⩾2 weeks. The positive predictive value increased with length of admission. In patients with admission length value was 65% while it was 90% for admission length ⩾2 weeks. The positive predictive value was 81% for patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device and 87% for patients with a prosthetic valve. The positive predictive value of the infective endocarditis diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry is high for patients with admission length ⩾2 weeks. Using this algorithm, the Danish National Patient Registry provides a valid source for identifying infective endocarditis for research.

  3. Western Validation of a Novel Gastric Cancer Prognosis Prediction Model in US Gastric Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Yanghee; Goldner, Bryan; Son, Taeil; Song, Kijun; Noh, Sung Hoon; Fong, Yuman; Hyung, Woo Jin

    2018-03-01

    A novel prediction model for accurate determination of 5-year overall survival of gastric cancer patients was developed by an international collaborative group (G6+). This prediction model was created using a single institution's database of 11,851 Korean patients and included readily available and clinically relevant factors. Already validated using external East Asian cohorts, its applicability in the American population was yet to be determined. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) dataset, 2014 release, all patients diagnosed with gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent surgical resection between 2002 and 2012, were selected. Characteristics for analysis included: age, sex, depth of tumor invasion, number of positive lymph nodes, total lymph nodes retrieved, presence of distant metastasis, extent of resection, and histology. Concordance index (C-statistic) was assessed using the novel prediction model and compared with the prognostic index, the seventh edition of the TNM staging system. Of the 26,019 gastric cancer patients identified from the SEER database, 15,483 had complete datasets. Validation of the novel prediction tool revealed a C-statistic of 0.762 (95% CI 0.754 to 0.769) compared with the seventh TNM staging model, C-statistic 0.683 (95% CI 0.677 to 0.689), (p prediction model for gastric cancer in the American patient population. Its superior prediction of the 5-year survival of gastric cancer patients in a large Western cohort strongly supports its global applicability. Importantly, this model allows for accurate prognosis for an increasing number of gastric cancer patients worldwide, including those who received inadequate lymphadenectomy or underwent a noncurative resection. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The predictive validity of a situational judgement test, a clinical problem solving test and the core medical training selection methods for performance in specialty training .

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Fiona; Lopes, Safiatu; Harding, Stephen; Vaux, Emma; Berkin, Liz; Black, David

    2017-02-01

    The aim of this study was to follow up a sample of physicians who began core medical training (CMT) in 2009. This paper examines the long-term validity of CMT and GP selection methods in predicting performance in the Membership of Royal College of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations. We performed a longitudinal study, examining the extent to which the GP and CMT selection methods (T1) predict performance in the MRCP(UK) examinations (T2). A total of 2,569 applicants from 2008-09 who completed CMT and GP selection methods were included in the study. Looking at MRCP(UK) part 1, part 2 written and PACES scores, both CMT and GP selection methods show evidence of predictive validity for the outcome variables, and hierarchical regressions show the GP methods add significant value to the CMT selection process. CMT selection methods predict performance in important outcomes and have good evidence of validity; the GP methods may have an additional role alongside the CMT selection methods. © Royal College of Physicians 2017. All rights reserved.

  5. Validation and uncertainty analysis of a pre-treatment 2D dose prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Jose A.; Wolfs, Cecile J. A.; Nijsten, Sebastiaan M. J. J. G.; Verhaegen, Frank

    2018-02-01

    Independent verification of complex treatment delivery with megavolt photon beam radiotherapy (RT) has been effectively used to detect and prevent errors. This work presents the validation and uncertainty analysis of a model that predicts 2D portal dose images (PDIs) without a patient or phantom in the beam. The prediction model is based on an exponential point dose model with separable primary and secondary photon fluence components. The model includes a scatter kernel, off-axis ratio map, transmission values and penumbra kernels for beam-delimiting components. These parameters were derived through a model fitting procedure supplied with point dose and dose profile measurements of radiation fields. The model was validated against a treatment planning system (TPS; Eclipse) and radiochromic film measurements for complex clinical scenarios, including volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Confidence limits on fitted model parameters were calculated based on simulated measurements. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of the parameter uncertainties on the model output. For the maximum uncertainty, the maximum deviating measurement sets were propagated through the fitting procedure and the model. The overall uncertainty was assessed using all simulated measurements. The validation of the prediction model against the TPS and the film showed a good agreement, with on average 90.8% and 90.5% of pixels passing a (2%,2 mm) global gamma analysis respectively, with a low dose threshold of 10%. The maximum and overall uncertainty of the model is dependent on the type of clinical plan used as input. The results can be used to study the robustness of the model. A model for predicting accurate 2D pre-treatment PDIs in complex RT scenarios can be used clinically and its uncertainties can be taken into account.

  6. Development and validation of a nomogram predicting recurrence risk in women with symptomatic urinary tract infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Tommaso; Mazzoli, Sandra; Migno, Serena; Malossini, Gianni; Lanzafame, Paolo; Mereu, Liliana; Tateo, Saverio; Wagenlehner, Florian M E; Pickard, Robert S; Bartoletti, Riccardo

    2014-09-01

    To develop and externally validate a novel nomogram predicting recurrence risk probability at 12 months in women after an episode of urinary tract infection. The study included 768 women from Santa Maria Annunziata Hospital, Florence, Italy, affected by urinary tract infections from January 2005 to December 2009. Another 373 women with the same criteria enrolled at Santa Chiara Hospital, Trento, Italy, from January 2010 to June 2012 were used to externally validate and calibrate the nomogram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models tested the relationship between urinary tract infection recurrence risk, and patient clinical and laboratory characteristics. The nomogram was evaluated by calculating concordance probabilities, as well as testing calibration of predicted urinary tract infection recurrence with observed urinary tract infections. Nomogram variables included: number of partners, bowel function, type of pathogens isolated (Gram-positive/negative), hormonal status, number of previous urinary tract infection recurrences and previous treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria. Of the original development data, 261 out of 768 women presented at least one episode of recurrence of urinary tract infection (33.9%). The nomogram had a concordance index of 0.85. The nomogram predictions were well calibrated. This model showed high discrimination accuracy and favorable calibration characteristics. In the validation group (373 women), the overall c-index was 0.83 (P = 0.003, 95% confidence interval 0.51-0.99), whereas the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.79-0.91). The present nomogram accurately predicts the recurrence risk of urinary tract infection at 12 months, and can assist in identifying women at high risk of symptomatic recurrence that can be suitable candidates for a prophylactic strategy. © 2014 The Japanese Urological Association.

  7. Is there any evidence for the validity of diagnostic criteria used for accommodative and nonstrabismic binocular dysfunctions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar Cacho-Martínez

    2014-01-01

    Conclusions: Scientific literature reveals differences between authors according to diagnostic criteria for accommodative and nonstrabismic binocular dysfunctions. Diagnostic accuracy studies show that there is only certain evidence for accommodative conditions. For binocular anomalies there is only evidence about a validated questionnaire for convergence insufficiency with no data of diagnostic accuracy.

  8. An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

    2003-07-01

    Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

  9. The predictive and discriminant validity of the zone of proximal development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijer, J; Elshout, J J

    2001-03-01

    Dynamic measurement procedures are supposed to uncover the zone of proximal development and to increase predictive validity in comparison to conventional, static measurement procedures. Two alternative explanations for the discrepancies between static and dynamic measurements were investigated. The first focuses on Vygotsky's learning potential theory, the second considers the role of anxiety tendency during test taking. If test anxious tendencies are mitigated by dynamic testing procedures, in particular the availability of assistance, the concept of the zone of proximal development may be superfluous in explaining the differences between the outcomes of static and dynamic measurement. Participants were students from secondary education in the Netherlands. They were tested repeatedly in grade three as well as in grade four. Participants were between 14 and 17 years old; their average age was 15.4 years with a standard deviation of .52. Two types of mathematics tests were used in a longitudinal experiment. The first type of test consisted of open-ended items, which participants had to solve completely on their own. With the second type of test, assistance was available to participants during the test. The latter so-called learning test was conceived of as a dynamic testing procedure. Furthermore, a test anxiety questionnaire was administered repeatedly. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the data. Apart from emotionality and worry, lack of self-confidence appears to be an important constituent of test anxiety. The learning test appears to contribute to the predictive validity of conventional tests and thus a part of Vygotsky's claims were substantiated. Moreover, the mere inclusion of a test anxiety factor into an explanatory model for the gathered data is not sufficient. Apart from test anxiety and mathematical ability it is necessary to assume a factor which may be construed as mathematics learning potential. The results indicate that the observed

  10. External validation of the ability of the DRAGON score to predict outcome after thrombolysis treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovesen, C; Christensen, A; Nielsen, J K; Christensen, H

    2013-11-01

    Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant plasminogen activator between 2009 and 2011 were included. Upon admission all patients underwent physical and neurological examination using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale along with non-contrast CT scans and CT angiography. Patients were followed up through the Outpatient Clinic and their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was assessed after 3 months. Three hundred and three patients were included in the analysis. The DRAGON scale proved to have a good discriminative ability for predicting highly unfavourable outcome (mRS 5-6) (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]: 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.96; pDRAGON scale provided good discriminative capability (AUC-ROC: 0.89; 95% CI 0.78-1.0; p=0.003) for highly unfavourable outcome. We confirmed the validity of the DRAGON scale in predicting outcome after thrombolysis treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Evidence of validity for the Japanese version of the foot and ankle ability measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uematsu, Daisuke; Suzuki, Hidetomo; Sasaki, Shogo; Nagano, Yasuharu; Shinozuka, Nobuyuki; Sunagawa, Norihiko; Fukubayashi, Toru

    2015-01-01

    The Foot and Ankle Ability Measure (FAAM) is a valid, reliable, and self-reported outcome instrument for the foot and ankle region. To provide evidence for translation, cross-cultural adaptation, validity, and reliability of the Japanese version of the FAAM (FAAM-J). Cross-sectional study. Collegiate athletic training/sports medicine clinical setting. Eighty-three collegiate athletes. All participants completed the Activities of Daily Living and Sports subscales of the FAAM-J and the Physical Functioning and Mental Health subscales of the Japanese version of the Short Form-36v2 (SF-36). Also, 19 participants (23%) whose conditions were expected to be stable completed another FAAM-J 2 to 6 days later for test-retest reliability. We analyzed the scores of those subscales for convergent and divergent validity, internal consistency, and test-retest reliability. The Activities of Daily Living and Sports subscales of the FAAM-J had correlation coefficients of 0.86 and 0.75, respectively, with the Physical Functioning section of the SF-36 for convergent validity. For divergent validity, the correlation coefficients with Mental Health of the SF-36 were 0.29 and 0.27 for each subscale, respectively. Cronbach α for internal consistency was 0.99 for the Activities of Daily Living and 0.98 for the Sports subscale. A 95% confidence interval with a single measure was ±8.1 and ±14.0 points for each subscale. The test-retest reliability measures revealed intraclass correlation coefficient values of 0.87 for the Activities of Daily Living and 0.91 for the Sports subscales with minimal detectable changes of ±6.8 and ±13.7 for the respective subscales. The FAAM was successfully translated for a Japanese version, and the FAAM-J was adapted cross-culturally. Thus, the FAAM-J can be used as a self-reported outcome measure for Japanese-speaking individuals; however, the scores must be interpreted with caution, especially when applied to different populations and other types of

  12. Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett’s esophagus in an Australian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ireland CJ

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Colin J Ireland,1 Andrea L Gordon,2 Sarah K Thompson,3 David I Watson,4 David C Whiteman,5 Richard L Reed,6 Adrian Esterman1,7 1School of Nursing and Midwifery, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2School of Pharmacy and Medical Science, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 3Discipline of Surgery, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 4Department of Surgery, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 5Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, QLD, Australia; 6Discipline of General Practice, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 7Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett’s esophagus (BE. While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. Materials and methods: A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Results: Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.87. The Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was p=0

  13. Validating a model that predicts daily growth and feed quality of New Zealand dairy pastures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, S J

    2001-09-01

    The Pasture Quality (PQ) model is a simple, mechanistic, dynamical system model that was designed to capture the essential biological processes in grazed grass-clover pasture, and to be optimised to derive improved grazing strategies for New Zealand dairy farms. While the individual processes represented in the model (photosynthesis, tissue growth, flowering, leaf death, decomposition, worms) were based on experimental data, this did not guarantee that the assembled model would accurately predict the behaviour of the system as a whole (i.e., pasture growth and quality). Validation of the whole model was thus a priority, since any strategy derived from the model could impact a farm business in the order of thousands of dollars per annum if adopted. This paper describes the process of defining performance criteria for the model, obtaining suitable data to test the model, and carrying out the validation analysis. The validation process highlighted a number of weaknesses in the model, which will lead to the model being improved. As a result, the model's utility will be enhanced. Furthermore, validation was found to have an unexpected additional benefit, in that despite the model's poor initial performance, support was generated for the model among field scientists involved in the wider project.

  14. Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

    2018-02-01

    Teramoto, M, Cross, CL, Rieger, RH, Maak, TG, and Willick, SE. Predictive validity of national basketball association draft combine on future performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(2): 396-408, 2018-The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA draft; however, its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and 3-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data through PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. As per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large-sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p ≤ 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

  15. A Critical Analysis and Validation of the Accuracy of Wave Overtopping Prediction Formulae for OWECs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Gallach-Sánchez

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of wave energy devices is growing in recent years. One type of device is the overtopping wave energy converter (OWEC, for which the knowledge of the wave overtopping rates is a basic and crucial aspect in their design. In particular, the most interesting range to study is for OWECs with steep slopes to vertical walls, and with very small freeboards and zero freeboards where the overtopping rate is maximized, and which can be generalized as steep low-crested structures. Recently, wave overtopping prediction formulae have been published for this type of structures, although their accuracy has not been fully assessed, as the overtopping data available in this range is scarce. We performed a critical analysis of the overtopping prediction formulae for steep low-crested structures and the validation of the accuracy of these formulae, based on new overtopping data for steep low-crested structures obtained at Ghent University. This paper summarizes the existing knowledge about average wave overtopping, describes the physical model tests performed, analyses the results and compares them to existing prediction formulae. The new dataset extends the wave overtopping data towards vertical walls and zero freeboard structures. In general, the new dataset validated the more recent overtopping formulae focused on steep slopes with small freeboards, although the formulae are underpredicting the average overtopping rates for very small and zero relative crest freeboards.

  16. Predictive validity of the Sødring Motor Evaluation of Stroke Patients (SMES).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyller, T B; Sødring, K M; Sveen, U; Ljunggren, A E; Bautz-Holter, E

    1996-12-01

    The Sødring Motor Evaluation of Stroke Patients (SMES) has been developed as an instrument for the evaluation by physiotherapists of motor function and activities in stroke patients. The predictive validity of the instrument was studied in a consecutive sample of 93 acute stroke patients, assessed in the acute phase and after one year. The outcome measures were: survival, residence at home or in institution, the Barthel ADL index (dichotomized at 19/20), and the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) (dichotomized at 9/10). The SMES, scored in the acute phase, demonstrated a marginally significant predictive power regarding survival, but was a highly significant predictor regarding the other outcomes. The adjusted odds ratio for a good versus a poor outcome for patients in the upper versus the lower tertile of the SMES arm subscore was 5.4 (95% confidence interval 0.9-59) for survival, 11.5 (2.1-88) for living at home, 86.3 (11-infinity) for a high Barthel score, and 31.4 (5.2-288) for a high FAI score. We conclude that SMES has high predictive validity.

  17. Validation of model predictions of pore-scale fluid distributions during two-phase flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bultreys, Tom; Lin, Qingyang; Gao, Ying; Raeini, Ali Q.; AlRatrout, Ahmed; Bijeljic, Branko; Blunt, Martin J.

    2018-05-01

    Pore-scale two-phase flow modeling is an important technology to study a rock's relative permeability behavior. To investigate if these models are predictive, the calculated pore-scale fluid distributions which determine the relative permeability need to be validated. In this work, we introduce a methodology to quantitatively compare models to experimental fluid distributions in flow experiments visualized with microcomputed tomography. First, we analyzed five repeated drainage-imbibition experiments on a single sample. In these experiments, the exact fluid distributions were not fully repeatable on a pore-by-pore basis, while the global properties of the fluid distribution were. Then two fractional flow experiments were used to validate a quasistatic pore network model. The model correctly predicted the fluid present in more than 75% of pores and throats in drainage and imbibition. To quantify what this means for the relevant global properties of the fluid distribution, we compare the main flow paths and the connectivity across the different pore sizes in the modeled and experimental fluid distributions. These essential topology characteristics matched well for drainage simulations, but not for imbibition. This suggests that the pore-filling rules in the network model we used need to be improved to make reliable predictions of imbibition. The presented analysis illustrates the potential of our methodology to systematically and robustly test two-phase flow models to aid in model development and calibration.

  18. The gender identity/gender dysphoria questionnaire for adolescents and adults: further validity evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Devita; Deogracias, Joseph J; Johnson, Laurel L; Bradley, Susan J; Kibblewhite, Sarah J; Owen-Anderson, Allison; Peterson-Badali, Michele; Meyer-Bahlburg, Heino F L; Zucker, Kenneth J

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to provide further validity evidence for the dimensional measurement of gender identity and gender dysphoria in both adolescents and adults. Adolescents and adults with gender identity disorder (GID) were compared to clinical control (CC) adolescents and adults on the Gender Identity/Gender Dysphoria Questionnaire for Adolescents and Adults (GIDYQ-AA), a 27-item scale originally developed by Deogracias et al. (2007). In Study 1, adolescents with GID (n = 44) were compared to CC adolescents (n = 98); and in Study 2, adults with GID (n = 41) were compared to CC adults (n = 94). In both studies, clients with GID self-reported significantly more gender dysphoria than did the CCs, with excellent sensitivity and specificity rates. In both studies, degree of self-reported gender dysphoria was significantly correlated with recall of cross-gender behavior in childhood-a test of convergent validity. The research and clinical utility of the GIDYQ-AA is discussed, including directions for further research in distinct clinical populations.

  19. The Spanish-Version of the Subjective Vitality Scale: Psychometric Properties and Evidence of Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Isabel; Tomás, Inés; Balaguer, Isabel

    2017-06-05

    The Subjective Vitality Scale (SVS) assess the subjective experience of being full of energy and alive, a clinically relevant outcome measure of positive psychological well-being. The purpose of this paper was to translate the 7-item SVS into Spanish and examine its psychometric properties. In Study 1 (n = 790 adolescents) and Study 2 (n = 130 athletes) reliability and exploratory factor analysis (EFA) were carried out. In Study 1 and Study 3 (n = 197 dancers) evidence of validity of inferences based on SVS scores estimating relationships with other variables (life satisfaction, global self-esteem and emotional and physical exhaustion) was obtained. In Study 2 invariance across time was tested. Finally in Study 3, the factorial structure was cross-validated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Results of EFA showed a one-factor solution. CFA also supported a unidimensional factor structure for the Spanish 6-item SVS (RMSEA = .050 (90% CI = .00, .080); NNFI = .993; CFI = .996). Reliability analysis indicated a strong internal consistency in all study samples (α ranged from .82 to .89). Further, results from multi-sample analysis supported the replicability of SVS factor structure across time. Finally, the SVS scores showed the expected correlations patterns (all them significant, p < .01) with the measured outcomes. In conclusion, the Spanish version of the SVS demonstrated adequate psychometric properties, indicating that the scale can be confidently used to measure the experience of possessing energy and aliveness; furthermore, differences across time can be meaningfully carried out.

  20. About my Child: measuring 'Complexity' in neurodisability. Evidence of reliability and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritzema, A M; Lach, L M; Rosenbaum, P; Nicholas, D

    2016-05-01

    About my Child, 26-item version (AMC-26) was developed as a measure of child health 'complexity' and has been proposed as a tool for understanding the functional needs of children and the priorities of families. The current study investigated the reliability and validity of AMC-26 with a sample of caregivers of children with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD; n = 258) who completed AMC-26 as part of a larger study on parenting children with NDD. A subsample of children from the larger study (n = 49) were assessed using standardized measures of cognitive and adaptive functioning. Factor analysis revealed that a four-component model explained 51.12% of the variance. Cronbach's alpha was calculated for each of the four factors and for the scale as a whole, and ranged from 0.75 to 0.85, suggesting a high level of internal consistency. Construct validity was tested through comparisons with the results of standardized measures of child functioning. Predicted relationships for factors one, two and three were statistically significant and in the expected directions. Predictions for factor four were partially supported. AMC-26 was also expected to serve as an indicator of caregiver distress. Drawing on a sample of caregivers from the larger study (n = 251) the model was found to be significant and explained 23% of the variance in caregiver depressive symptoms (R(2)  = .053, F (1, 249) = 14.06, P child function and child health complexity. Such a measure may help elucidate the relationships between child complexity and family well-being. This is an important avenue for further investigation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

    2011-12-01

    This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. External validation of structure-biodegradation relationship (SBR) models for predicting the biodegradability of xenobiotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devillers, J; Pandard, P; Richard, B

    2013-01-01

    Biodegradation is an important mechanism for eliminating xenobiotics by biotransforming them into simple organic and inorganic products. Faced with the ever growing number of chemicals available on the market, structure-biodegradation relationship (SBR) and quantitative structure-biodegradation relationship (QSBR) models are increasingly used as surrogates of the biodegradation tests. Such models have great potential for a quick and cheap estimation of the biodegradation potential of chemicals. The Estimation Programs Interface (EPI) Suite™ includes different models for predicting the potential aerobic biodegradability of organic substances. They are based on different endpoints, methodologies and/or statistical approaches. Among them, Biowin 5 and 6 appeared the most robust, being derived from the largest biodegradation database with results obtained only from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) test. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive performances of these two models from a set of 356 chemicals extracted from notification dossiers including compatible biodegradation data. Another set of molecules with no more than four carbon atoms and substituted by various heteroatoms and/or functional groups was also embodied in the validation exercise. Comparisons were made with the predictions obtained with START (Structural Alerts for Reactivity in Toxtree). Biowin 5 and Biowin 6 gave satisfactorily prediction results except for the prediction of readily degradable chemicals. A consensus model built with Biowin 1 allowed the diminution of this tendency.

  3. Prediction, Detection, and Validation of Isotope Clusters in Mass Spectrometry Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Treutler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Mass spectrometry is a key analytical platform for metabolomics. The precise quantification and identification of small molecules is a prerequisite for elucidating the metabolism and the detection, validation, and evaluation of isotope clusters in LC-MS data is important for this task. Here, we present an approach for the improved detection of isotope clusters using chemical prior knowledge and the validation of detected isotope clusters depending on the substance mass using database statistics. We find remarkable improvements regarding the number of detected isotope clusters and are able to predict the correct molecular formula in the top three ranks in 92 % of the cases. We make our methodology freely available as part of the Bioconductor packages xcms version 1.50.0 and CAMERA version 1.30.0.

  4. An Experimental Simulation to Validate FEM to Predict Transverse Young’s Modulus of FRP Composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Sai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Finite element method finds application in the analysis of FRP composites due to its versatility in getting the solution for complex cases which are not possible by exact classical analytical approaches. The finite element result is questionable unless it is obtained from converged mesh and properly validated. In the present work specimens are prepared with metallic materials so that the arrangement of fibers is close to hexagonal packing in a matrix as similar arrangement in case of FRP is complex due to the size of fibers. Transverse Young’s moduli of these specimens are determined experimentally. Equivalent FE models are designed and corresponding transverse Young’s moduli are compared with the experimental results. It is observed that the FE values are in good agreement with the experimental results, thus validating FEM for predicting transverse modulus of FRP composites.

  5. Evaluating the predictive accuracy and the clinical benefit of a nomogram aimed to predict survival in node-positive prostate cancer patients: External validation on a multi-institutional database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Lorenzo; Schiavina, Riccardo; Borghesi, Marco; Bianchi, Federico Mineo; Briganti, Alberto; Carini, Marco; Terrone, Carlo; Mottrie, Alex; Gacci, Mauro; Gontero, Paolo; Imbimbo, Ciro; Marchioro, Giansilvio; Milanese, Giulio; Mirone, Vincenzo; Montorsi, Francesco; Morgia, Giuseppe; Novara, Giacomo; Porreca, Angelo; Volpe, Alessandro; Brunocilla, Eugenio

    2018-04-06

    To assess the predictive accuracy and the clinical value of a recent nomogram predicting cancer-specific mortality-free survival after surgery in pN1 prostate cancer patients through an external validation. We evaluated 518 prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection with evidence of nodal metastases at final pathology, at 10 tertiary centers. External validation was carried out using regression coefficients of the previously published nomogram. The performance characteristics of the model were assessed by quantifying predictive accuracy, according to the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic curve and model calibration. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed the specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for each nomogram-derived probability cut-off. Finally, we implemented decision curve analysis, in order to quantify the nomogram's clinical value in routine practice. External validation showed inferior predictive accuracy as referred to in the internal validation (65.8% vs 83.3%, respectively). The discrimination (area under the curve) of the multivariable model was 66.7% (95% CI 60.1-73.0%) by testing with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The calibration plot showed an overestimation throughout the range of predicted cancer-specific mortality-free survival rates probabilities. However, in decision curve analysis, the nomogram's use showed a net benefit when compared with the scenarios of treating all patients or none. In an external setting, the nomogram showed inferior predictive accuracy and suboptimal calibration characteristics as compared to that reported in the original population. However, decision curve analysis showed a clinical net benefit, suggesting a clinical implication to correctly manage pN1 prostate cancer patients after surgery. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

  6. Screening for frailty in community-dwelling elderly subjects: Predictive validity of the modified SEGA instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oubaya, N; Dramé, M; Novella, J-L; Quignard, E; Cunin, C; Jolly, D; Mahmoudi, R

    2017-11-01

    To study the capacity of the SEGAm instrument to predict loss of independence among elderly community-dwelling subjects. The study was performed in four French departments (Ardennes, Marne, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Meuse). Subjects aged 65 years or more, living at home, who could read and understand French, with a degree of autonomy corresponding to groups 5 or 6 in the AGGIR autonomy evaluation scale were included. Assessment included demographic characteristics, comprehensive geriatric assessment, and the SEGAm instrument at baseline. Subjects had follow-up visits at home at 6 and 12 months. During follow-up, vital status and level of independence were recorded. Logistic regression was used to study predictive validity of the SEGAm instrument. Among the 116 subjects with complete follow-up, 84 (72.4%) were classed as not very frail at baseline, 23 (19.8%) as frail, and 9 (7.8%) as very frail; 63 (54.3%) suffered loss of at least one ADL or IADL at 12 months. By multivariable analysis, frailty status at baseline was significantly associated with loss of independence during the 12 months of follow-up (OR=4.52, 95% CI=1.40-14.68; p=0.01). We previously validated the SEGAm instrument in terms of feasibility, acceptability, internal structure validity, reliability, and discriminant validity. This instrument appears to be a suitable tool for screening frailty among community-dwelling elderly subjects, and could be used as a basis to plan early targeted interventions for subjects at risk of adverse outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina

    To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...

  8. Direct Observation of Clinical Skills Feedback Scale: Development and Validity Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halman, Samantha; Dudek, Nancy; Wood, Timothy; Pugh, Debra; Touchie, Claire; McAleer, Sean; Humphrey-Murto, Susan

    2016-01-01

    Construct: This article describes the development and validity evidence behind a new rating scale to assess feedback quality in the clinical workplace. Competency-based medical education has mandated a shift to learner-centeredness, authentic observation, and frequent formative assessments with a focus on the delivery of effective feedback. Because feedback has been shown to be of variable quality and effectiveness, an assessment of feedback quality in the workplace is important to ensure we are providing trainees with optimal learning opportunities. The purposes of this project were to develop a rating scale for the quality of verbal feedback in the workplace (the Direct Observation of Clinical Skills Feedback Scale [DOCS-FBS]) and to gather validity evidence for its use. Two panels of experts (local and national) took part in a nominal group technique to identify features of high-quality feedback. Through multiple iterations and review, 9 features were developed into the DOCS-FBS. Four rater types (residents n = 21, medical students n = 8, faculty n = 12, and educators n = 12) used the DOCS-FBS to rate videotaped feedback encounters of variable quality. The psychometric properties of the scale were determined using a generalizability analysis. Participants also completed a survey to gather data on a 5-point Likert scale to inform the ease of use, clarity, knowledge acquisition, and acceptability of the scale. Mean video ratings ranged from 1.38 to 2.96 out of 3 and followed the intended pattern suggesting that the tool allowed raters to distinguish between examples of higher and lower quality feedback. There were no significant differences between rater type (range = 2.36-2.49), suggesting that all groups of raters used the tool in the same way. The generalizability coefficients for the scale ranged from 0.97 to 0.99. Item-total correlations were all above 0.80, suggesting some redundancy in items. Participants found the scale easy to use (M = 4.31/5) and clear

  9. Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

    2012-10-01

    Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to criminal justice system involvement, self-report measures of aggression, impulsivity, and lack of empathy. Additionally, the CCS was associated with violent criminal history, antisocial personality, and clinicians' ratings of risk for future violence and psychopathy (PCL:SV). Furthermore, criminogenic thinking upon incarceration predicted subsequent official reports of inmate misconduct during incarceration. CCS scores varied somewhat by gender and race. Research and applied uses of CCS are discussed.

  10. Development and validation of the 3-D CFD model for CANDU-6 moderator temperature predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Churl; Rhee, Bo Wook; Min, Byung Joo

    2003-03-01

    A computational fluid dynamics model for predicting the moderator circulation inside the CANada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) reactor vessel has been developed to estimate the local subcooling of the moderator in the vicinity of the Calandria tubes. The buoyancy effect induced by internal heating is accounted for by Boussinesq approximation. The standard κ-ε turbulence model associated with logarithmic wall treatment is applied to predict the turbulent jet flows from the inlet nozzles. The matrix of the Calandria tubes in the core region is simplified to porous media, in which an-isotropic hydraulic impedance is modeled using an empirical correlation of the frictional pressure loss. The governing equations are solved by CFX-4.4, a commercial CFD code developed by AEA technology. The CFD model has been successfully verified and validated against experimental data obtained in the Stern Laboratories Inc. (SLI) in Hamilton, Ontario

  11. A six-factor model of brand personality and its predictive validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Živanović Marko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The study examines applicability and usefulness of HEXACO-based model in the description of brand personality. Following contemporary theoretical developments in human personality research, Study 1 explored the latent personality structure of 120 brands using descriptors of six personality traits as defined in HEXACO model: Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Openness. The results of exploratory factor analyses have supported HEXACO personality six-factor structure to a large extent. In Study 2 we addressed the question of predictive validity of HEXACO-based brand personality. Brand personality traits, but predominantly Honesty-Humility, accounted for substantial amount of variance in prediction of important aspects of consumer-brand relationship: attitude toward brand, perceived quality of a brand, and brand loyalty. The implications of applying HEXACO-based brand personality in marketing research are discussed. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 179018 and Grant no. 175012

  12. A Validation of Subchannel Based CHF Prediction Model for Rod Bundles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Dae-Hyun; Kim, Seong-Jin

    2015-01-01

    A large number of CHF data base were procured from various sources which included square and non-square lattice test bundles. CHF prediction accuracy was evaluated for various models including CHF lookup table method, empirical correlations, and phenomenological DNB models. The parametric effect of the mass velocity and unheated wall has been investigated from the experimental result, and incorporated into the development of local parameter CHF correlation applicable to APWR conditions. According to the CHF design criterion, the CHF should not occur at the hottest rod in the reactor core during normal operation and anticipated operational occurrences with at least a 95% probability at a 95% confidence level. This is accomplished by assuring that the minimum DNBR (Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio) in the reactor core is greater than the limit DNBR which accounts for the accuracy of CHF prediction model. The limit DNBR can be determined from the inverse of the lower tolerance limit of M/P that is evaluated from the measured-to-predicted CHF ratios for the relevant CHF data base. It is important to evaluate an adequacy of the CHF prediction model for application to the actual reactor core conditions. Validation of CHF prediction model provides the degree of accuracy inferred from the comparison of solution and data. To achieve a required accuracy for the CHF prediction model, it may be necessary to calibrate the model parameters by employing the validation results. If the accuracy of the model is acceptable, then it is applied to the real complex system with the inferred accuracy of the model. In a conventional approach, the accuracy of CHF prediction model was evaluated from the M/P statistics for relevant CHF data base, which was evaluated by comparing the nominal values of the predicted and measured CHFs. The experimental uncertainty for the CHF data was not considered in this approach to determine the limit DNBR. When a subchannel based CHF prediction model

  13. Predicting medical complications after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

    2014-02-01

    The possibility and likelihood of a postoperative medical complication after spine surgery undoubtedly play a major role in the decision making of the surgeon and patient alike. Although prior study has determined relative risk and odds ratio values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of medical complication, rather than relative risk or odds ratio values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of medical complication during and after spine surgery. Statistical analysis using a prospective surgical spine registry that recorded extensive demographic, surgical, and complication data. Outcomes examined are medical complications that were specifically defined a priori. This analysis is a continuation of statistical analysis of our previously published report. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,476 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication detail recorded for 2 years after surgery, we previously identified several risk factor for medical complications. Using the beta coefficients from those log binomial regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of medical complication after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created two predictive models: one predicting the occurrence of any medical complication and the other predicting the occurrence of a major medical complication. The final predictive model for any medical complications had a receiver operator curve characteristic of 0.76, considered to be a fair measure. The final predictive model for any major medical complications had

  14. Derivation and External Validation of Prediction Models for Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Following Acute Kidney Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Matthew T; Pannu, Neesh; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Austin, Peter C; Tan, Zhi; McArthur, Eric; Manns, Braden J; Tonelli, Marcello; Wald, Ron; Quinn, Robert R; Ravani, Pietro; Garg, Amit X

    2017-11-14

    Some patients will develop chronic kidney disease after a hospitalization with acute kidney injury; however, no risk-prediction tools have been developed to identify high-risk patients requiring follow-up. To derive and validate predictive models for progression of acute kidney injury to advanced chronic kidney disease. Data from 2 population-based cohorts of patients with a prehospitalization estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of more than 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 and who had survived hospitalization with acute kidney injury (defined by a serum creatinine increase during hospitalization > 0.3 mg/dL or > 50% of their prehospitalization baseline), were used to derive and validate multivariable prediction models. The risk models were derived from 9973 patients hospitalized in Alberta, Canada (April 2004-March 2014, with follow-up to March 2015). The risk models were externally validated with data from a cohort of 2761 patients hospitalized in Ontario, Canada (June 2004-March 2012, with follow-up to March 2013). Demographic, laboratory, and comorbidity variables measured prior to discharge. Advanced chronic kidney disease was defined by a sustained reduction in eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 for at least 3 months during the year after discharge. All participants were followed up for up to 1 year. The participants (mean [SD] age, 66 [15] years in the derivation and internal validation cohorts and 69 [11] years in the external validation cohort; 40%-43% women per cohort) had a mean (SD) baseline serum creatinine level of 1.0 (0.2) mg/dL and more than 20% had stage 2 or 3 acute kidney injury. Advanced chronic kidney disease developed in 408 (2.7%) of 9973 patients in the derivation cohort and 62 (2.2%) of 2761 patients in the external validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, 6 variables were independently associated with the outcome: older age, female sex, higher baseline serum creatinine value, albuminuria, greater severity of acute kidney injury, and higher

  15. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  16. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael King

    Full Text Available Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women.69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873. The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51. External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846 and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78.The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  17. An Automated Defect Prediction Framework using Genetic Algorithms: A Validation of Empirical Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Murillo-Morera

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Today, it is common for software projects to collect measurement data through development processes. With these data, defect prediction software can try to estimate the defect proneness of a software module, with the objective of assisting and guiding software practitioners. With timely and accurate defect predictions, practitioners can focus their limited testing resources on higher risk areas. This paper reports the results of three empirical studies that uses an automated genetic defect prediction framework. This framework generates and compares different learning schemes (preprocessing + attribute selection + learning algorithms and selects the best one using a genetic algorithm, with the objective to estimate the defect proneness of a software module. The first empirical study is a performance comparison of our framework with the most important framework of the literature. The second empirical study is a performance and runtime comparison between our framework and an exhaustive framework. The third empirical study is a sensitivity analysis. The last empirical study, is our main contribution in this paper. Performance of the software development defect prediction models (using AUC, Area Under the Curve was validated using NASA-MDP and PROMISE data sets. Seventeen data sets from NASA-MDP (13 and PROMISE (4 projects were analyzed running a NxM-fold cross-validation. A genetic algorithm was used to select the components of the learning schemes automatically, and to assess and report the results. Our results reported similar performance between frameworks. Our framework reported better runtime than exhaustive framework. Finally, we reported the best configuration according to sensitivity analysis.

  18. Validation of Heat-Flux Predictions on the Outer Air Seal of a Transonic Turbine Blade (Preprint)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clark, John P; Polanka, Marc D; Meininger, Matthew; Praisner, Thomas J

    2006-01-01

    .... So, a set of predictions of the heat flux on the Blade Outer Air Seal (BOAS) of a transonic turbine is here validated with time-resolved measurements obtained in a single-stage high pressure turbine rig...

  19. [Validation of a clinical prediction rule to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agüero, Gonzalo; Davenport, María C; Del Valle, María de la P; Gallegos, Paulina; Kannemann, Ana L; Bokser, Vivian; Ferrero, Fernando

    2010-02-01

    Despite most meningitis are not bacterial, antibiotics are usually administered on admission because bacterial meningitis is difficult to be rule-out. Distinguishing bacterial from aseptic meningitis on admission could avoid inappropriate antibiotic use and hospitalization. We aimed to validate a clinical prediction rule to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis in children, on arriving to the emergency room. This prospective study included patients aged or = 1000 cells/mm(3), CSF protein > or = 80 mg/dl, peripheral blood absolute neutrophil count > or = 10.000/mm(3), seizure = 1 point each. Sensitivity (S), specificity (E), positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV), positive and negative likelihood ratios (PLR and NLR) of the BMS to predict bacterial meningitis were calculated. Seventy patients with meningitis were included (14 bacterial meningitis). When BMS was calculated, 25 patients showed a BMS= 0 points, 11 BMS= 1 point, and 34 BMS > or = 2 points. A BMS = 0 showed S: 100%, E: 44%, VPP: 31%, VPN: 100%, RVP: 1,81 RVN: 0. A BMS > or = 2 predicted bacterial meningitis with S: 100%, E: 64%, VPP: 41%, VPN: 100%, PLR: 2.8, NLR:0. Using BMS was simple, and allowed identifying children with very low risk of bacterial meningitis. It could be a useful tool to assist clinical decision making.

  20. Modelling for the Stripa site characterization and validation drift inflow: prediction of flow through fractured rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.; Gale, J.; MacLeod, R.; Lanyon, G.

    1991-12-01

    We present our approach to predicting flow through a fractured rock site; the site characterization and validation region in the Stripa mine. Our approach is based on discrete fracture network modelling using the NAPSAC computer code. We describe the conceptual models and assumptions that we have used to interpret the geometry and flow properties of the fracture networks, from measurements at the site. These are used to investigate large scale properties of the network and we show that for flows on scales larger than about 10 m, porous medium approximation should be used. The porous medium groundwater flow code CFEST is used to predict the large scale flows through the mine and the SCV region. This, in turn, is used to provide boundary conditions for more detailed models, which predict the details of flow, using a discrete fracture network model, on scales of less than 10 m. We conclude that a fracture network approach is feasible and that it provides a better understanding of details of flow than conventional porous medium approaches and a quantification of the uncertainty associated with predictive flow modelling characterised from field measurement in fractured rock. (au)

  1. Prediction of valid acidity in intact apples with Fourier transform near infrared spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yan-De; Ying, Yi-Bin; Fu, Xia-Ping

    2005-03-01

    To develop nondestructive acidity prediction for intact Fuji apples, the potential of Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) method with fiber optics in interactance mode was investigated. Interactance in the 800 nm to 2619 nm region was measured for intact apples, harvested from early to late maturity stages. Spectral data were analyzed by two multivariate calibration techniques including partial least squares (PLS) and principal component regression (PCR) methods. A total of 120 Fuji apples were tested and 80 of them were used to form a calibration data set. The influences of different data preprocessing and spectra treatments were also quantified. Calibration models based on smoothing spectra were slightly worse than that based on derivative spectra, and the best result was obtained when the segment length was 5 nm and the gap size was 10 points. Depending on data preprocessing and PLS method, the best prediction model yielded correlation coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.759, low root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.0677, low root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) of 0.0562. The results indicated the feasibility of FT-NIR spectral analysis for predicting apple valid acidity in a nondestructive way.

  2. Validation test for CAP88 predictions of tritium dispersion at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelotti, Erika; Green, Andrew; Whicker, Jeffrey; Eisele, William; Fuehne, David; McNaughton, Michael

    2013-08-01

    Gaussian plume models, such as CAP88, are used regularly for estimating downwind concentrations from stack emissions. At many facilities, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) requires that CAP88 be used to demonstrate compliance with air quality regulations for public protection from emissions of radionuclides. Gaussian plume models have the advantage of being relatively simple and their use pragmatic; however, these models are based on simplifying assumptions and generally they are not capable of incorporating dynamic meteorological conditions or complex topography. These limitations encourage validation tests to understand the capabilities and limitations of the model for the specific application. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has complex topography but is required to use CAP88 for compliance with the Clean Air Act Subpart H. The purpose of this study was to test the accuracy of the CAP88 predictions against ambient air measurements using released tritium as a tracer. Stack emissions of tritium from two LANL stacks were measured and the dispersion modeled with CAP88 using local meteorology. Ambient air measurements of tritium were made at various distances and directions from the stacks. Model predictions and ambient air measurements were compared over the course of a full year's data. Comparative results were consistent with other studies and showed the CAP88 predictions of downwind tritium concentrations were on average about three times higher than those measured, and the accuracy of the model predictions were generally more consistent for annual averages than for bi-weekly data.

  3. Constructing a Validity Argument for the Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS): A Systematic Review of Validity Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatala, Rose; Cook, David A.; Brydges, Ryan; Hawkins, Richard

    2015-01-01

    In order to construct and evaluate the validity argument for the Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS), based on Kane's framework, we conducted a systematic review. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, ERIC, Web of Science, Scopus, and selected reference lists through February 2013. Working in duplicate, we selected…

  4. Predictive validity of the Work Ability Index and its individual items in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundin, Andreas; Leijon, Ola; Vaez, Marjan; Hallgren, Mats; Torgén, Margareta

    2017-06-01

    This study assesses the predictive ability of the full Work Ability Index (WAI) as well as its individual items in the general population. The Work, Health and Retirement Study (WHRS) is a stratified random national sample of 25-75-year-olds living in Sweden in 2000 that received a postal questionnaire ( n = 6637, response rate = 53%). Current and subsequent sickness absence was obtained from registers. The ability of the WAI to predict long-term sickness absence (LTSA; ⩾ 90 consecutive days) during a period of four years was analysed by logistic regression, from which the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) was computed. There were 313 incident LTSA cases among 1786 employed individuals. The full WAI had acceptable ability to predict LTSA during the 4-year follow-up (AUC = 0.79; 95% CI 0.76 to 0.82). Individual items were less stable in their predictive ability. However, three of the individual items: current work ability compared with lifetime best, estimated work impairment due to diseases, and number of diagnosed current diseases, exceeded AUC > 0.70. Excluding the WAI item on number of days on sickness absence did not result in an inferior predictive ability of the WAI. The full WAI has acceptable predictive validity, and is superior to its individual items. For public health surveys, three items may be suitable proxies of the full WAI; current work ability compared with lifetime best, estimated work impairment due to diseases, and number of current diseases diagnosed by a physician.

  5. Anatomical Cystocele Recurrence: Development and Internal Validation of a Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergeldt, Tineke F M; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Notten, Kim J B; Kluivers, Kirsten B; Weemhoff, Mirjam

    2016-02-01

    To develop a prediction model that estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence after surgery. The databases of two multicenter prospective cohort studies were combined, and we performed a retrospective secondary analysis of these data. Women undergoing an anterior colporrhaphy without mesh materials and without previous pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery filled in a questionnaire, underwent translabial three-dimensional ultrasonography, and underwent staging of POP preoperatively and postoperatively. We developed a prediction model using multivariable logistic regression and internally validated it using standard bootstrapping techniques. The performance of the prediction model was assessed by computing indices of overall performance, discriminative ability, calibration, and its clinical utility by computing test characteristics. Of 287 included women, 149 (51.9%) had anatomical cystocele recurrence. Factors included in the prediction model were assisted delivery, preoperative cystocele stage, number of compartments involved, major levator ani muscle defects, and levator hiatal area during Valsalva. Potential predictors that were excluded after backward elimination because of high P values were age, body mass index, number of vaginal deliveries, and family history of POP. The shrinkage factor resulting from the bootstrap procedure was 0.91. After correction for optimism, Nagelkerke's R and the Brier score were 0.15 and 0.22, respectively. This indicates satisfactory model fit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the prediction model was 71.6% (95% confidence interval 65.7-77.5). After correction for optimism, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 69.7%. This prediction model, including history of assisted delivery, preoperative stage, number of compartments, levator defects, and levator hiatus, estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence.

  6. Stability and Predictive Validity of the Parent-Child Sleep Interactions Scale: A Longitudinal Study Among Preschoolers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, Chelsey S; Jay, Samantha Y; Smith, Victoria C; Alfano, Candice A; Dougherty, Lea R

    2018-01-01

    Little research has examined the processes underlying children's persistent sleep problems and links with later psychopathology. The current study examined the stability of parent-child sleep interactions as assessed with the parent-reported Parent-Child Sleep Interactions Scale (PSIS) and examined whether sleep interactions in preschool-age children predict sleep problems and psychiatric symptoms later in childhood. Participants included 108 preschool-age children (50% female) and their parents. Parents completed the PSIS when children were 3-5 years (T1) and again when they were 6-9 years (T2). The PSIS includes three subscales-Sleep Reinforcement (reassurance of child sleep behaviors), Sleep Conflict (parent-child conflict at bedtime), Sleep Dependence (difficulty going to sleep without parent)-and a total score. Higher scores indicate more problematic bedtime interactions. Children's sleep problems and psychiatric symptoms at T1 and T2 were assessed with a clinical interview. PSIS scores were moderately stable from T1 to T2, and the factor structure of the PSIS remained relatively consistent over time. Higher total PSIS scores at T1 predicted increases in children's sleep problems at T2. Higher PSIS Sleep Conflict scores at T1 predicted increases in oppositional defiant disorder symptoms at T2. Children with more sleep problems and higher PSIS Sleep Reinforcement scores at T1 showed increases in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, depressive, and anxiety symptoms at T2. These findings provide evidence for the predictive validity of the PSIS and highlight the importance of early parent-child sleep interactions in the development of sleep and psychiatric symptoms in childhood. Parent-child sleep interactions may serve as a useful target for interventions.

  7. An evidence-based decision assistance model for predicting training outcome in juvenile guide dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Naomi D; Craigon, Peter J; Blythe, Simon A; England, Gary C W; Asher, Lucy

    2017-01-01

    Working dog organisations, such as Guide Dogs, need to regularly assess the behaviour of the dogs they train. In this study we developed a questionnaire-style behaviour assessment completed by training supervisors of juvenile guide dogs aged 5, 8 and 12 months old (n = 1,401), and evaluated aspects of its reliability and validity. Specifically, internal reliability, temporal consistency, construct validity, predictive criterion validity (comparing against later training outcome) and concurrent criterion validity (comparing against a standardised behaviour test) were evaluated. Thirty-nine questions were sourced either from previously published literature or created to meet requirements identified via Guide Dogs staff surveys and staff feedback. Internal reliability analyses revealed seven reliable and interpretable trait scales named according to the questions within them as: Adaptability; Body Sensitivity; Distractibility; Excitability; General Anxiety; Trainability and Stair Anxiety. Intra-individual temporal consistency of the scale scores between 5-8, 8-12 and 5-12 months was high. All scales excepting Body Sensitivity showed some degree of concurrent criterion validity. Predictive criterion validity was supported for all seven scales, since associations were found with training outcome, at at-least one age. Thresholds of z-scores on the scales were identified that were able to distinguish later training outcome by identifying 8.4% of all dogs withdrawn for behaviour and 8.5% of all qualified dogs, with 84% and 85% specificity. The questionnaire assessment was reliable and could detect traits that are consistent within individuals over time, despite juvenile dogs undergoing development during the study period. By applying thresholds to scores produced from the questionnaire this assessment could prove to be a highly valuable decision-making tool for Guide Dogs. This is the first questionnaire-style assessment of juvenile dogs that has shown value in predicting

  8. Great Expectations: Is there Evidence for Predictive Coding in Auditory Cortex?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilbron, Micha; Chait, Maria

    2017-08-04

    Predictive coding is possibly one of the most influential, comprehensive, and controversial theories of neural function. While proponents praise its explanatory potential, critics object that key tenets of the theory are untested or even untestable. The present article critically examines existing evidence for predictive coding in the auditory modality. Specifically, we identify five key assumptions of the theory and evaluate each in the light of animal, human and modeling studies of auditory pattern processing. For the first two assumptions - that neural responses are shaped by expectations and that these expectations are hierarchically organized - animal and human studies provide compelling evidence. The anticipatory, predictive nature of these expectations also enjoys empirical support, especially from studies on unexpected stimulus omission. However, for the existence of separate error and prediction neurons, a key assumption of the theory, evidence is lacking. More work exists on the proposed oscillatory signatures of predictive coding, and on the relation between attention and precision. However, results on these latter two assumptions are mixed or contradictory. Looking to the future, more collaboration between human and animal studies, aided by model-based analyses will be needed to test specific assumptions and implementations of predictive coding - and, as such, help determine whether this popular grand theory can fulfill its expectations. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Validating computational predictions of night-time ventilation in Stanford's Y2E2 building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Lamberti, Giacomo; Gorle, Catherine

    2017-11-01

    Natural ventilation can significantly reduce building energy consumption, but robust design is a challenging task. We previously presented predictions of natural ventilation performance in Stanford's Y2E2 building using two models with different levels of fidelity, embedded in an uncertainty quantification framework to identify the dominant uncertain parameters and predict quantified confidence intervals. The results showed a slightly high cooling rate for the volume-averaged temperature, and the initial thermal mass temperature and window discharge coefficients were found to have an important influence on the results. To further investigate the potential role of these parameters on the observed discrepancies, the current study is performing additional measurements in the Y2E2 building. Wall temperatures are recorded throughout the nightflush using thermocouples; flow rates through windows are measured using hotwires; and spatial variability in the air temperature is explored. The measured wall temperatures are found the be within the range of our model assumptions, and the measured velocities agree reasonably well with our CFD predications. Considerable local variations in the indoor air temperature have been recorded, largely explaining the discrepancies in our earlier validation study. Future work will therefore focus on a local validation of the CFD results with the measurements. Center for Integrated Facility Engineering (CIFE).

  10. Validation and prediction of traditional Chinese physical operation on spinal disease using multiple deformation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Lei; Yang, Xubo; Gu, Lixu; Lu, Wenlong; Fang, Min

    2011-03-01

    Traditional Chinese medical massage is a physical manipulation that achieves satisfactory results on spinal diseases, according to its advocates. However, the method relies on an expert's experience. Accurate analysis and simulation of massage are essential for validation of traditional Chinese physical treatment. The objective of this study is to provide analysis and simulation that can reproducibly verify and predict treatment efficacy. An improved physical multi-deformation model for simulating human cervical spine is proposed. First, the human spine, which includes muscle, vertebrae and inter- vertebral disks, are segmented and reconstructed from clinical CT and MR images. Homogeneous landmark registration is employed to align the spine models before and after the massage manipulation. Central line mass spring and contact FEM deformation models are used to individually evaluate spinal anatomy variations. The response of the human spine during the massage process is simulated based on specific clinical cases. Ten sets of patient data, including muscle-force relationships, displacement of vertebrae, strain and stress distribution on inter-vertebral disks were collected, including the pre-operation, post-operation and the 3-month follow-up. The simulation results demonstrate that traditional Chinese massage could significantly affect and treat most mild spinal disease. A new method that simulates a traditional Chinese medical massage operation on the human spine may be a useful tool to scientifically validate and predict treatment efficacy.

  11. Validation of a CFD Analysis Model for Predicting CANDU-6 Moderator Temperature Against SPEL Experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Churl Yoon; Bo Wook Rhee; Byung-Joo Min

    2002-01-01

    A validation of a 3D CFD model for predicting local subcooling of the moderator in the vicinity of calandria tubes in a CANDU-6 reactor is performed. The small scale moderator experiments performed at Sheridan Park Experimental Laboratory (SPEL) in Ontario, Canada[1] is used for the validation. Also a comparison is made between previous CFD analyses based on 2DMOTH and PHOENICS, and the current analysis for the same SPEL experiment. For the current model, a set of grid structures for the same geometry as the experimental test section is generated and the momentum, heat and continuity equations are solved by CFX-4.3, a CFD code developed by AEA technology. The matrix of calandria tubes is simplified by the porous media approach. The standard k-ε turbulence model associated with logarithmic wall treatment and SIMPLEC algorithm on the body fitted grid are used. Buoyancy effects are accounted for by the Boussinesq approximation. For the test conditions simulated in this study, the flow pattern identified is the buoyancy-dominated flow, which is generated by the interaction between the dominant buoyancy force by heating and inertial momentum forces by the inlet jets. As a result, the current CFD moderator analysis model predicts the moderator temperature reasonably, and the maximum error against the experimental data is kept at less than 2.0 deg. C over the whole domain. The simulated velocity field matches with the visualization of SPEL experiments quite well. (authors)

  12. External validation of the MRI-DRAGON score: early prediction of stroke outcome after intravenous thrombolysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turc, Guillaume; Aguettaz, Pierre; Ponchelle-Dequatre, Nelly; Hénon, Hilde; Naggara, Olivier; Leclerc, Xavier; Cordonnier, Charlotte; Leys, Didier; Mas, Jean-Louis; Oppenheim, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    The aim of our study was to validate in an independent cohort the MRI-DRAGON score, an adaptation of the (CT-) DRAGON score to predict 3-month outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients undergoing MRI before intravenous thrombolysis (IV-tPA). We reviewed consecutive (2009-2013) anterior circulation stroke patients treated within 4.5 hours by IV-tPA in the Lille stroke unit (France), where MRI is the first-line pretherapeutic work-up. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MRI-DRAGON score to predict poor 3-month outcome, defined as modified Rankin Score >2, using c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively. We included 230 patients (mean ±SD age 70.4±16.0 years, median [IQR] baseline NIHSS 8 [5]-[14]; poor outcome in 78(34%) patients). The c-statistic was 0.81 (95%CI 0.75-0.87), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was not significant (p = 0.54). The MRI-DRAGON score showed good prognostic performance in the external validation cohort. It could therefore be used to inform the patient's relatives about long-term prognosis and help to identify poor responders to IV-tPA alone, who may be candidates for additional therapeutic strategies, if they are otherwise eligible for such procedures based on the institutional criteria.

  13. External validation of the MRI-DRAGON score: early prediction of stroke outcome after intravenous thrombolysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Turc

    Full Text Available The aim of our study was to validate in an independent cohort the MRI-DRAGON score, an adaptation of the (CT- DRAGON score to predict 3-month outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients undergoing MRI before intravenous thrombolysis (IV-tPA.We reviewed consecutive (2009-2013 anterior circulation stroke patients treated within 4.5 hours by IV-tPA in the Lille stroke unit (France, where MRI is the first-line pretherapeutic work-up. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MRI-DRAGON score to predict poor 3-month outcome, defined as modified Rankin Score >2, using c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively.We included 230 patients (mean ±SD age 70.4±16.0 years, median [IQR] baseline NIHSS 8 [5]-[14]; poor outcome in 78(34% patients. The c-statistic was 0.81 (95%CI 0.75-0.87, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was not significant (p = 0.54.The MRI-DRAGON score showed good prognostic performance in the external validation cohort. It could therefore be used to inform the patient's relatives about long-term prognosis and help to identify poor responders to IV-tPA alone, who may be candidates for additional therapeutic strategies, if they are otherwise eligible for such procedures based on the institutional criteria.

  14. Predicting Hemorrhagic Transformation of Acute Ischemic Stroke: Prospective Validation of the HeRS Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Elisabeth B; Llinas, Rafael H; Schneider, Andrea L C; Hillis, Argye E; Lawrence, Erin; Dziedzic, Peter; Gottesman, Rebecca F

    2016-01-01

    Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) increases the morbidity and mortality of ischemic stroke. Anticoagulation is often indicated in patients with atrial fibrillation, low ejection fraction, or mechanical valves who are hospitalized with acute stroke, but increases the risk of HT. Risk quantification would be useful. Prior studies have investigated risk of systemic hemorrhage in anticoagulated patients, but none looked specifically at HT. In our previously published work, age, infarct volume, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) significantly predicted HT. We created the hemorrhage risk stratification (HeRS) score based on regression coefficients in multivariable modeling and now determine its validity in a prospectively followed inpatient cohort.A total of 241 consecutive patients presenting to 2 academic stroke centers with acute ischemic stroke and an indication for anticoagulation over a 2.75-year period were included. Neuroimaging was evaluated for infarct volume and HT. Hemorrhages were classified as symptomatic versus asymptomatic, and by severity. HeRS scores were calculated for each patient and compared to actual hemorrhage status using receiver operating curve analysis.Area under the curve (AUC) comparing predicted odds of hemorrhage (HeRS score) to actual hemorrhage status was 0.701. Serum glucose (P hemorrhages were more likely to be symptomatic and more severe.The HeRS score is a valid predictor of HT in patients with ischemic stroke and indication for anticoagulation.

  15. Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Functional Outcome After Stroke Rehabilitation: The Maugeri Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scrutinio, Domenico; Lanzillo, Bernardo; Guida, Pietro; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Monitillo, Vincenzo; Pusineri, Monica; Formica, Roberto; Russo, Giovanna; Guarnaschelli, Caterina; Ferretti, Chiara; Calabrese, Gianluigi

    2017-12-01

    Prediction of outcome after stroke rehabilitation may help clinicians in decision-making and planning rehabilitation care. We developed and validated a predictive tool to estimate the probability of achieving improvement in physical functioning (model 1) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (model 2) after stroke rehabilitation. The models were derived from 717 patients admitted for stroke rehabilitation. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to build each model. Then, each model was prospectively validated in 875 patients. Model 1 included age, time from stroke occurrence to rehabilitation admission, admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure scores, and neglect. Model 2 included age, male gender, time since stroke onset, and admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure score. Both models demonstrated excellent discrimination. In the derivation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.883 (95% confidence intervals, 0.858-0.910) for model 1 and 0.913 (95% confidence intervals, 0.884-0.942) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 4.12 ( P =0.249) and 1.20 ( P =0.754), respectively. In the validation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.866 (95% confidence intervals, 0.840-0.892) for model 1 and 0.850 (95% confidence intervals, 0.815-0.885) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 8.86 ( P =0.115) and 34.50 ( P =0.001), respectively. Both improvement in physical functioning (hazard ratios, 0.43; 0.25-0.71; P =0.001) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (hazard ratios, 0.32; 0.14-0.68; P =0.004) were independently associated with improved 4-year survival. A calculator is freely available for download at https://goo.gl/fEAp81. This study provides researchers and clinicians with an easy-to-use, accurate, and validated predictive tool for potential application in rehabilitation research and stroke management. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  16. [Reliability and validity of the Braden Scale for predicting pressure sore risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boes, C

    2000-12-01

    For more accurate and objective pressure sore risk assessment various risk assessment tools were developed mainly in the USA and Great Britain. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk is one such example. By means of a literature analysis of German and English texts referring to the Braden Scale the scientific control criteria reliability and validity will be traced and consequences for application of the scale in Germany will be demonstrated. Analysis of 4 reliability studies shows an exclusive focus on interrater reliability. Further, even though examination of 19 validity studies occurs in many different settings, such examination is limited to the criteria sensitivity and specificity (accuracy). The range of sensitivity and specificity level is 35-100%. The recommended cut off points rank in the field of 10 to 19 points. The studies prove to be not comparable with each other. Furthermore, distortions in these studies can be found which affect accuracy of the scale. The results of the here presented analysis show an insufficient proof for reliability and validity in the American studies. In Germany, the Braden scale has not yet been tested under scientific criteria. Such testing is needed before using the scale in different German settings. During the course of such testing, construction and study procedures of the American studies can be used as a basis as can the problems be identified in the analysis presented below.

  17. Predictive validity of the post-enrolment English language assessment tool for commencing undergraduate nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glew, Paul J; Hillege, Sharon P; Salamonson, Yenna; Dixon, Kathleen; Good, Anthony; Lombardo, Lien

    2015-12-01

    Nursing students with English as an additional language (EAL) may underperform academically. The post-enrolment English language assessment (PELA) is used in literacy support, but its predictive validity in identifying those at risk of underperformance remains unknown. To validate a PELA, as a predictor of academic performance. Prospective survey design. The study was conducted at a university located in culturally and linguistically diverse areas of western Sydney, Australia. Commencing undergraduate nursing students who were Australian-born (n=1323, 49.6%) and born outside of Australia (n=1346, 50.4%) were recruited for this study. The 2669 (67% of 3957) participants provided consent and completed a first year nursing unit that focussed on developing literacy skills. Between 2010 and 2013, commencing students completed the PELA and English language acculturation scale (ELAS), a previously validated instrument. The grading levels of the PELA tool were: Level 1 (proficient), Level 2 (borderline), and Level 3 (poor, and requiring additional support). Participants with a PELA Level 2 or 3 were more likely to be: a) non-Australian-born (χ(2): 520.6, df: 2, pstudent (χ(2): 225.6, df: 2, pstudents who are at risk of academic underachievement. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Validation and Refinement of Prediction Models to Estimate Exercise Capacity in Cancer Survivors Using the Steep Ramp Test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stuiver, Martijn M.; Kampshoff, Caroline S.; Persoon, Saskia; Groen, Wim; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai J. M.; Brug, Johannes; Nollet, Frans; Kersten, Marie-José; Schep, Goof; Buffart, Laurien M.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To further test the validity and clinical usefulness of the steep ramp test (SRT) in estimating exercise tolerance in cancer survivors by external validation and extension of previously published prediction models for peak oxygen consumption (Vo2(peak)) and peak power output (W-peak).&

  19. Short-Term Predictive Validity of Cluster Analytic and Dimensional Classification of Child Behavioral Adjustment in School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sangwon; Kamphaus, Randy W.; Baker, Jean A.

    2006-01-01

    A constructive debate over the classification of child psychopathology can be stimulated by investigating the validity of different classification approaches. We examined and compared the short-term predictive validity of cluster analytic and dimensional classifications of child behavioral adjustment in school using the Behavior Assessment System…

  20. The Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR): predictive validity in inpatient stroke rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breisinger, Terry P; Skidmore, Elizabeth R; Niyonkuru, Christian; Terhorst, Lauren; Campbell, Grace B

    2014-12-01

    To evaluate relative accuracy of a newly developed Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR) for classifying fallers and non-fallers, compared with a health system fall risk screening tool, the Fall Harm Risk Screen. Prospective quality improvement study conducted at an inpatient stroke rehabilitation unit at a large urban university hospital. Patients admitted for inpatient stroke rehabilitation (N = 419) with imaging or clinical evidence of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, between 1 August 2009 and 31 July 2010. Not applicable. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves of both scales' classifications, based on fall risk score completed upon admission to inpatient stroke rehabilitation. A total of 68 (16%) participants fell at least once. The SAFR was significantly more accurate than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (p Fall Harm Risk Screen, area under the curve was 0.56, positive predictive value was 0.19, and negative predictive value was 0.86. Sensitivity and specificity of the SAFR (0.78 and 0.63, respectively) was higher than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (0.57 and 0.48, respectively). An evidence-derived, population-specific fall risk assessment may more accurately predict fallers than a general fall risk screen for stroke rehabilitation patients. While the SAFR improves upon the accuracy of a general assessment tool, additional refinement may be warranted. © The Author(s) 2014.

  1. Multivariable prediction model for suspected giant cell arteritis: development and validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ing EB

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Edsel B Ing,1 Gabriela Lahaie Luna,2 Andrew Toren,3 Royce Ing,4 John J Chen,5 Nitika Arora,6 Nurhan Torun,7 Otana A Jakpor,8 J Alexander Fraser,9 Felix J Tyndel,10 Arun NE Sundaram,10 Xinyang Liu,11 Cindy TY Lam,1 Vivek Patel,12 Ezekiel Weis,13 David Jordan,14 Steven Gilberg,14 Christian Pagnoux,15 Martin ten Hove21Department of Ophthalmology and Vision Sciences, University of Toronto Medical School, Toronto, 2Department of Ophthalmology, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, 3Department of Ophthalmology, University of Laval, Quebec, QC, 4Toronto Eyelid, Strabismus and Orbit Surgery Clinic, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Mayo Clinic, Department of Ophthalmology and Neurology, 6Mayo Clinic, Department of Ophthalmology, Rochester, MN, 7Department of Surgery, Division of Ophthalmology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 8Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; 9Department of Clinical Neurological Sciences and Ophthalmology, Western University, London, 10Department of Medicine, University of Toronto Medical School, Toronto, ON, Canada; 11Department of Medicine, Fudan University Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 12Roski Eye Institute, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; 13Departments of Ophthalmology, Universities of Alberta and Calgary, Edmonton and Calgary, AB, 14Department of Ophthalmology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, 15Vasculitis Clinic, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, ON, CanadaPurpose: To develop and validate a diagnostic prediction model for patients with suspected giant cell arteritis (GCA.Methods: A retrospective review of records of consecutive adult patients undergoing temporal artery biopsy (TABx for suspected GCA was conducted at seven university centers. The pathologic diagnosis was considered the final diagnosis. The predictor variables were age, gender, new onset headache, clinical temporal artery abnormality, jaw claudication, ischemic vision loss (VL, diplopia

  2. Development and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Models for Prediction of Heat Transfer and Thermal Microenvironments of Corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Robert H.; King, Andrew J. C.; Mullins, Benjamin J.; Cooper, Timothy F.; Caley, M. Julian

    2012-01-01

    We present Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models of the coupled dynamics of water flow, heat transfer and irradiance in and around corals to predict temperatures experienced by corals. These models were validated against controlled laboratory experiments, under constant and transient irradiance, for hemispherical and branching corals. Our CFD models agree very well with experimental studies. A linear relationship between irradiance and coral surface warming was evident in both the simulation and experimental result agreeing with heat transfer theory. However, CFD models for the steady state simulation produced a better fit to the linear relationship than the experimental data, likely due to experimental error in the empirical measurements. The consistency of our modelling results with experimental observations demonstrates the applicability of CFD simulations, such as the models developed here, to coral bleaching studies. A study of the influence of coral skeletal porosity and skeletal bulk density on surface warming was also undertaken, demonstrating boundary layer behaviour, and interstitial flow magnitude and temperature profiles in coral cross sections. Our models compliment recent studies showing systematic changes in these parameters in some coral colonies and have utility in the prediction of coral bleaching. PMID:22701582

  3. Is the Readmission Rate a Valid Quality Indicator? A Review of the Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Claudia; Lingsma, Hester F.; Marang-van de Mheen, Perla J.; Kringos, Dionne S.; Klazinga, Niek S.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Hospital readmission rates are increasingly used for both quality improvement and cost control. However, the validity of readmission rates as a measure of quality of hospital care is not evident. We aimed to give an overview of the different methodological aspects in the definition and measurement of readmission rates that need to be considered when interpreting readmission rates as a reflection of quality of care. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review, using the bibliographic databases Embase, Medline OvidSP, Web-of-Science, Cochrane central and PubMed for the period of January 2001 to May 2013. Results The search resulted in 102 included papers. We found that definition of the context in which readmissions are used as a quality indicator is crucial. This context includes the patient group and the specific aspects of care of which the quality is aimed to be assessed. Methodological flaws like unreliable data and insufficient case-mix correction may confound the comparison of readmission rates between hospitals. Another problem occurs when the basic distinction between planned and unplanned readmissions cannot be made. Finally, the multi-faceted nature of quality of care and the correlation between readmissions and other outcomes limit the indicator's validity. Conclusions Although readmission rates are a promising quality indicator, several methodological concerns identified in this study need to be addressed, especially when the indicator is intended for accountability or pay for performance. We recommend investing resources in accurate data registration, improved indicator description, and bundling outcome measures to provide a more complete picture of hospital care. PMID:25379675

  4. Is the readmission rate a valid quality indicator? A review of the evidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Fischer

    Full Text Available Hospital readmission rates are increasingly used for both quality improvement and cost control. However, the validity of readmission rates as a measure of quality of hospital care is not evident. We aimed to give an overview of the different methodological aspects in the definition and measurement of readmission rates that need to be considered when interpreting readmission rates as a reflection of quality of care.We conducted a systematic literature review, using the bibliographic databases Embase, Medline OvidSP, Web-of-Science, Cochrane central and PubMed for the period of January 2001 to May 2013.The search resulted in 102 included papers. We found that definition of the context in which readmissions are used as a quality indicator is crucial. This context includes the patient group and the specific aspects of care of which the quality is aimed to be assessed. Methodological flaws like unreliable data and insufficient case-mix correction may confound the comparison of readmission rates between hospitals. Another problem occurs when the basic distinction between planned and unplanned readmissions cannot be made. Finally, the multi-faceted nature of quality of care and the correlation between readmissions and other outcomes limit the indicator's validity.Although readmission rates are a promising quality indicator, several methodological concerns identified in this study need to be addressed, especially when the indicator is intended for accountability or pay for performance. We recommend investing resources in accurate data registration, improved indicator description, and bundling outcome measures to provide a more complete picture of hospital care.

  5. External validation of approaches to prediction of falls during hospital rehabilitation stays and development of a new simpler tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Vratsistas-Curto

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To test the external validity of 4 approaches to fall prediction in a rehabilitation setting (Predict_FIRST, Ontario Modified STRATIFY (OMS, physiotherapists’ judgement of fall risk (PT_Risk, and falls in the past year (Past_Falls, and to develop and test the validity of a simpler tool for fall prediction in rehabilitation (Predict_CM2. Participants: A total of 300 consecutively-admitted rehabilitation inpatients. Methods: Prospective inception cohort study. Falls during the rehabilitation stay were monitored. Potential predictors were extracted from medical records. Results: Forty-one patients (14% fell during their rehabilitation stay. The external validity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC, for predicting future fallers was: 0.71 (95% confidence interval (95% CI: 0.61–0.81 for OMS (Total_Score; 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57–0.74 for Predict_FIRST; 0.65 (95% CI 0.57–0.73 for PT_Risk; and 0.52 for Past_Falls (95% CI: 0.46–0.60. A simple 3-item tool (Predict_CM2 was developed from the most predictive individual items (impaired mobility/transfer ability, impaired cognition, and male sex. The accuracy of Predict_CM2 was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.66–0.81, comparable to OMS (Total_Score (p = 0.52, significantly better than Predict_FIRST (p = 0.04, and Past_Falls (p < 0.001, and approaching significantly better than PT_Risk (p = 0.09. Conclusion: Predict_CM2 is a simpler screening tool with similar accuracy for predicting fallers in rehabilitation to OMS (Total_Score and better accuracy than Predict_FIRST or Past_Falls. External validation of Predict_CM2 is required.

  6. Validity of bioelectrical impedance measurement in predicting fat-free mass of Chinese children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Hui, Stanley Sai-chuen; Wong, Stephen Heung-sang

    2014-11-15

    The current study aimed to examine the validity of various published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations in estimating FFM among Chinese children and adolescents and to develop BIA equations for the estimation of fat-free mass (FFM) appropriate for Chinese children and adolescents. A total of 255 healthy Chinese children and adolescents aged 9 to 19 years old (127 males and 128 females) from Tianjin, China, participated in the BIA measurement at 50 kHz between the hand and the foot. The criterion measure of FFM was also employed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). FFM estimated from 24 published BIA equations was cross-validated against the criterion measure from DEXA. Multiple linear regression was conducted to examine alternative BIA equation for the studied population. FFM estimated from the 24 published BIA equations yielded high correlations with the directly measured FFM from DEXA. However, none of the 24 equations was statistically equivalent with the DEXA-measured FFM. Using multiple linear regression and cross-validation against DEXA measurement, an alternative prediction equation was determined as follows: FFM (kg)=1.613+0.742×height (cm)2/impedance (Ω)+0.151×body weight (kg); R2=0.95; SEE=2.45 kg; CV=6.5, 93.7% of the residuals of all the participants fell within the 95% limits of agreement. BIA was highly correlated with FFM in Chinese children and adolescents. When the new developed BIA equations are applied, BIA can provide a practical and valid measurement of body composition in Chinese children and adolescents.

  7. Same admissions tools, different outcomes: a critical perspective on predictive validity in three undergraduate medical schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Daniel; Friedman, Tim; Pearce, Jacob

    2013-12-27

    Admission to medical school is one of the most highly competitive entry points in higher education. Considerable investment is made by universities to develop selection processes that aim to identify the most appropriate candidates for their medical programs. This paper explores data from three undergraduate medical schools to offer a critical perspective of predictive validity in medical admissions. This study examined 650 undergraduate medical students from three Australian universities as they progressed through the initial years of medical school (accounting for approximately 25 per cent of all commencing undergraduate medical students in Australia in 2006 and 2007). Admissions criteria (aptitude test score based on UMAT, school result and interview score) were correlated with GPA over four years of study. Standard regression of each of the three admissions variables on GPA, for each institution at each year level was also conducted. Overall, the data found positive correlations between performance in medical school, school achievement and UMAT, but not interview. However, there were substantial differences between schools, across year levels, and within sections of UMAT exposed. Despite this, each admission variable was shown to add towards explaining course performance, net of other variables. The findings suggest the strength of multiple admissions tools in predicting outcomes of medical students. However, they also highlight the large differences in outcomes achieved by different schools, thus emphasising the pitfalls of generalising results from predictive validity studies without recognising the diverse ways in which they are designed and the variation in the institutional contexts in which they are administered. The assumption that high-positive correlations are desirable (or even expected) in these studies is also problematised.

  8. Prediction of Curve Progression in Idiopathic Scoliosis: Validation of the Sanders Skeletal Maturity Staging System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitoula, Prakash; Verma, Kushagra; Holmes, Laurens; Gabos, Peter G; Sanders, James O; Yorgova, Petya; Neiss, Geraldine; Rogers, Kenneth; Shah, Suken A

    2015-07-01

    Retrospective case series. This study aimed to validate the Sanders Skeletal Maturity Staging System and to assess its correlation to curve progression in idiopathic scoliosis. The Sanders Skeletal Maturity Staging System has been used to predict curve progression in idiopathic scoliosis. This study intended to validate that initial study with a larger sample size. We retrospectively reviewed 1100 consecutive patients with idiopathic scoliosis between 2005 and 2011. Girls aged 8 to 14 years (skeletal age and scoliosis curve magnitude were followed to skeletal maturity (Risser stage 5 or fully capped Risser stage 4), curve progression to 50° or greater, or spinal fusion. Patients with nonidiopathic curves were excluded. There were 161 patients: 131 girls (12.3 ± 1.2 yr) and 30 boys (13.9 ± 1.1 yr). The distribution of patients within Sanders stage (SS) 1 through 7 was 7, 28, 41, 45, 7, 31, and 2 patients, respectively; modified Lenke curve types 1 to 6 were 26, 12, 63, 5, 38, and 17 patients, respectively. All patients in SS2 with initial Cobb angles of 25° or greater progressed, and patients in SS1 and SS3 with initial Cobb angles of 35° or greater progressed. Similarly, all patients with initial Cobb angles of 40° or greater progressed except those in SS7. Conversely, none of the patients with initial Cobb angles of 15° or less or those in SS5, SS6, and SS7 with initial Cobb angles of 30° or less progressed. Predictive progression of 67%, 50%, 43%, 27%, and 60% was observed for subgroups SS1/30°, SS2/20°, SS3/30°, SS4/30°, and SS6/35° respectively. This larger cohort shows a strong predictive correlation between SS and initial Cobb angle for probability of curve progression in idiopathic scoliosis. 3.

  9. Clinical validation of an epigenetic assay to predict negative histopathological results in repeat prostate biopsies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partin, Alan W; Van Neste, Leander; Klein, Eric A; Marks, Leonard S; Gee, Jason R; Troyer, Dean A; Rieger-Christ, Kimberly; Jones, J Stephen; Magi-Galluzzi, Cristina; Mangold, Leslie A; Trock, Bruce J; Lance, Raymond S; Bigley, Joseph W; Van Criekinge, Wim; Epstein, Jonathan I

    2014-10-01

    The DOCUMENT multicenter trial in the United States validated the performance of an epigenetic test as an independent predictor of prostate cancer risk to guide decision making for repeat biopsy. Confirming an increased negative predictive value could help avoid unnecessary repeat biopsies. We evaluated the archived, cancer negative prostate biopsy core tissue samples of 350 subjects from a total of 5 urological centers in the United States. All subjects underwent repeat biopsy within 24 months with a negative (controls) or positive (cases) histopathological result. Centralized blinded pathology evaluation of the 2 biopsy series was performed in all available subjects from each site. Biopsies were epigenetically profiled for GSTP1, APC and RASSF1 relative to the ACTB reference gene using quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction. Predetermined analytical marker cutoffs were used to determine assay performance. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate all risk factors. The epigenetic assay resulted in a negative predictive value of 88% (95% CI 85-91). In multivariate models correcting for age, prostate specific antigen, digital rectal examination, first biopsy histopathological characteristics and race the test proved to be the most significant independent predictor of patient outcome (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.60-4.51). The DOCUMENT study validated that the epigenetic assay was a significant, independent predictor of prostate cancer detection in a repeat biopsy collected an average of 13 months after an initial negative result. Due to its 88% negative predictive value adding this epigenetic assay to other known risk factors may help decrease unnecessary repeat prostate biopsies. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Factors associated with therapeutic inertia in hypertension: validation of a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redón, Josep; Coca, Antonio; Lázaro, Pablo; Aguilar, Ma Dolores; Cabañas, Mercedes; Gil, Natividad; Sánchez-Zamorano, Miguel Angel; Aranda, Pedro

    2010-08-01

    To study factors associated with therapeutic inertia in treating hypertension and to develop a predictive model to estimate the probability of therapeutic inertia in a given medical consultation, based on variables related to the consultation, patient, physician, clinical characteristics, and level of care. National, multicentre, observational, cross-sectional study in primary care and specialist (hospital) physicians who each completed a questionnaire on therapeutic inertia, provided professional data and collected clinical data on four patients. Therapeutic inertia was defined as a consultation in which treatment change was indicated (i.e., SBP >or= 140 or DBP >or= 90 mmHg in all patients; SBP >or= 130 or DBP >or= 80 in patients with diabetes or stroke), but did not occur. A predictive model was constructed and validated according to the factors associated with therapeutic inertia. Data were collected on 2595 patients and 13,792 visits. Therapeutic inertia occurred in 7546 (75%) of the 10,041 consultations in which treatment change was indicated. Factors associated with therapeutic inertia were primary care setting, male sex, older age, SPB and/or DBP values close to normal, treatment with more than one antihypertensive drug, treatment with an ARB II, and more than six visits/year. Physician characteristics did not weigh heavily in the association. The predictive model was valid internally and externally, with acceptable calibration, discrimination and reproducibility, and explained one-third of the variability in therapeutic inertia. Although therapeutic inertia is frequent in the management of hypertension, the factors explaining it are not completely clear. Whereas some aspects of the consultations were associated with therapeutic inertia, physician characteristics were not a decisive factor.

  11. Predicting fluid responsiveness with transthoracic echocardiography is not yet evidence based

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wetterslev, M; Haase, N; Johansen, R R

    2013-01-01

    an integrated tool in the intensive care unit, this systematic review examined studies evaluating the predictive value of TTE for fluid responsiveness. In October 2012, we searched Pubmed, EMBASE and Web of Science for studies evaluating the predictive value of TTE-derived variables for fluid responsiveness...... responsiveness. Of the 4294 evaluated citations, only one study fully met our inclusion criteria. In this study, the predictive value of variations in inferior vena cava diameter (> 16%) for fluid responsiveness was moderate with sensitivity of 71% [95% confidence interval (CI) 44-90], specificity of 100% (95......% CI 73-100) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.90 (95% CI 0.73-0.98). Only one study of TTE-based methods fulfilled the criteria for valid assessment of fluid responsiveness. Before recommending the use of TTE in predicting fluid responsiveness, proper evaluation including...

  12. Evidence-based cross validation for acoustic power transmission for a novel treatment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihcin, Senay; Strehlow, Jan; Demedts, Daniel; Schwenke, Michael; Levy, Yoav; Melzer, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    The novel Trans-Fusimo Treatment System (TTS) is designed to control Magnetic Resonance guided Focused Ultrasound (MRgFUS) therapy to ablate liver tumours under respiratory motion. It is crucial to deliver the acoustic power within tolerance limits for effective liver tumour treatment via MRgFUS. Before application in a clinical setting, evidence of reproducibility and reliability is a must for safe practice. The TTS software delivers the acoustic power via ExAblate-2100 Conformal Bone System (CBS) transducer. A built-in quality assurance application was developed to measure the force values, using a novel protocol to measure the efficiency for the electrical power values of 100 and 150W for 6s of sonication. This procedure was repeated 30 times by two independent users against the clinically approved ExAblate-2100 CBS for cross-validation. Both systems proved to deliver the power within the accepted efficiency levels (70-90%). Two sample t-tests were used to assess the differences in force values between the ExAblate-2100 CBS and the TTS (p > 0.05). Bland-Altman plots were used to demonstrate the limits of agreement between the two systems falling within the 10% limits of agreement. Two sample t-tests indicated that TTS does not have user dependency (p > 0.05). The TTS software proved to deliver the acoustic power without exceeding the safety levels. Results provide evidence as a part of ISO13485 regulations for CE marking purposes. The developed methodology could be utilised as a part of quality assurance system in clinical settings; when the TTS is used in clinical practice.

  13. The utility of QSARs in predicting acute fish toxicity of pesticide metabolites: A retrospective validation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Natalie; Maynard, Samuel K; Weltje, Lennart; Wheeler, James R

    2016-10-01

    The European Plant Protection Products Regulation 1107/2009 requires that registrants establish whether pesticide metabolites pose a risk to the environment. Fish acute toxicity assessments may be carried out to this end. Considering the total number of pesticide (re-) registrations, the number of metabolites can be considerable, and therefore this testing could use many vertebrates. EFSA's recent "Guidance on tiered risk assessment for plant protection products for aquatic organisms in edge-of-field surface waters" outlines opportunities to apply non-testing methods, such as Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) models. However, a scientific evidence base is necessary to support the use of QSARs in predicting acute fish toxicity of pesticide metabolites. Widespread application and subsequent regulatory acceptance of such an approach would reduce the numbers of animals used. The work presented here intends to provide this evidence base, by means of retrospective data analysis. Experimental fish LC50 values for 150 metabolites were extracted from the Pesticide Properties Database (http://sitem.herts.ac.uk/aeru/ppdb/en/atoz.htm). QSAR calculations were performed to predict fish acute toxicity values for these metabolites using the US EPA's ECOSAR software. The most conservative predicted LC50 values generated by ECOSAR were compared with experimental LC50 values. There was a significant correlation between predicted and experimental fish LC50 values (Spearman rs = 0.6304, p < 0.0001). For 62% of metabolites assessed, the QSAR predicted values are equal to or lower than their respective experimental values. Refined analysis, taking into account data quality and experimental variation considerations increases the proportion of sufficiently predictive estimates to 91%. For eight of the nine outliers, there are plausible explanation(s) for the disparity between measured and predicted LC50 values. Following detailed consideration of the robustness of

  14. Prostatectomy-based validation of combined urine and plasma test for predicting high grade prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albitar, Maher; Ma, Wanlong; Lund, Lars; Shahbaba, Babak; Uchio, Edward; Feddersen, Søren; Moylan, Donald; Wojno, Kirk; Shore, Neal

    2018-03-01

    Distinguishing between low- and high-grade prostate cancers (PCa) is important, but biopsy may underestimate the actual grade of cancer. We have previously shown that urine/plasma-based prostate-specific biomarkers can predict high grade PCa. Our objective was to determine the accuracy of a test using cell-free RNA levels of biomarkers in predicting prostatectomy results. This multicenter community-based prospective study was conducted using urine/blood samples collected from 306 patients. All recruited patients were treatment-naïve, without metastases, and had been biopsied, designated a Gleason Score (GS) based on biopsy, and assigned to prostatectomy prior to participation in the study. The primary outcome measure was the urine/plasma test accuracy in predicting high grade PCa on prostatectomy compared with biopsy findings. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using standard formulas, while comparisons between groups were performed using the Wilcoxon Rank Sum, Kruskal-Wallis, Chi-Square, and Fisher's exact test. GS as assigned by standard 10-12 core biopsies was 3 + 3 in 90 (29.4%), 3 + 4 in 122 (39.8%), 4 + 3 in 50 (16.3%), and > 4 + 3 in 44 (14.4%) patients. The urine/plasma assay confirmed a previous validation and was highly accurate in predicting the presence of high-grade PCa (Gleason ≥3 + 4) with sensitivity between 88% and 95% as verified by prostatectomy findings. GS was upgraded after prostatectomy in 27% of patients and downgraded in 12% of patients. This plasma/urine biomarker test accurately predicts high grade cancer as determined by prostatectomy with a sensitivity at 92-97%, while the sensitivity of core biopsies was 78%. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. DSM-5 antisocial personality disorder: predictive validity in a prison sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edens, John F; Kelley, Shannon E; Lilienfeld, Scott O; Skeem, Jennifer L; Douglas, Kevin S

    2015-04-01

    Symptoms of antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), particularly remorselessness, are frequently introduced in legal settings as a risk factor for future violence in prison, despite a paucity of research on the predictive validity of this disorder. We examined whether an ASPD diagnosis or symptom-criteria counts could prospectively predict any form of institutional misconduct, as well as aggressive and violent infractions among newly admitted prisoners. Adult male (n = 298) and female (n = 55) offenders were recruited from 4 prison systems across the United States. At the time of study enrollment, diagnostic information was collected using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.; DSM-IV; APA, 1994) Axis II Personality Disorders (SCID-II; First, Gibbon, Spitzer, Williams, & Benjamin, 1997) supplemented by a detailed review of official records. Disciplinary records were obtained from inmates' respective prisons covering a 1-year period following study enrollment and misconduct was categorized hierarchically as any (general), aggressive (verbal/physical), or violent (physical). Dichotomous ASPD diagnoses and adult symptom-criteria counts did not significantly predict institutional misconduct across our 3 outcome variables, with effect sizes being close to 0 in magnitude. The symptom of remorselessness in particular showed no relation to future misconduct in prison. Childhood symptom counts of conduct disorder demonstrated modest predictive utility. Our results offer essentially no support for the claim that ASPD diagnoses can predict institutional misconduct in prison, regardless of the number of adult symptoms present. In forensic contexts, testimony that an ASPD diagnosis identifies defendants who will pose a serious threat while incarcerated in prison presently lacks any substantial scientific foundation. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Information-Theoretic Evidence for Predictive Coding in the Face-Processing System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodski-Guerniero, Alla; Paasch, Georg-Friedrich; Wollstadt, Patricia; Özdemir, Ipek; Lizier, Joseph T; Wibral, Michael

    2017-08-23

    Predictive coding suggests that the brain infers the causes of its sensations by combining sensory evidence with internal predictions based on available prior knowledge. However, the neurophysiological correlates of (pre)activated prior knowledge serving these predictions are still unknown. Based on the idea that such preactivated prior knowledge must be maintained until needed, we measured the amount of maintained information in neural signals via the active information storage (AIS) measure. AIS was calculated on whole-brain beamformer-reconstructed source time courses from MEG recordings of 52 human subjects during the baseline of a Mooney face/house detection task. Preactivation of prior knowledge for faces showed as α-band-related and β-band-related AIS increases in content-specific areas; these AIS increases were behaviorally relevant in the brain's fusiform face area. Further, AIS allowed decoding of the cued category on a trial-by-trial basis. Our results support accounts indicating that activated prior knowledge and the corresponding predictions are signaled in low-frequency activity (information our eyes/retina and other sensory organs receive from the outside world, but strongly depends also on information already present in our brains, such as prior knowledge about specific situations or objects. A currently popular theory in neuroscience, predictive coding theory, suggests that this prior knowledge is used by the brain to form internal predictions about upcoming sensory information. However, neurophysiological evidence for this hypothesis is rare, mostly because this kind of evidence requires strong a priori assumptions about the specific predictions the brain makes and the brain areas involved. Using a novel, assumption-free approach, we find that face-related prior knowledge and the derived predictions are represented in low-frequency brain activity. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378273-11$15.00/0.

  17. Validation of a Methodology to Predict Micro-Vibrations Based on Finite Element Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soula, Laurent; Rathband, Ian; Laduree, Gregory

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents the second part of the ESA R&D study called "METhodology for Analysis of structure- borne MICro-vibrations" (METAMIC). After defining an integrated analysis and test methodology to help predicting micro-vibrations [1], a full-scale validation test campaign has been carried out. It is based on a bread-board representative of typical spacecraft (S/C) platform consisting in a versatile structure made of aluminium sandwich panels equipped with different disturbance sources and a dummy payload made of a silicon carbide (SiC) bench. The bread-board has been instrumented with a large set of sensitive accelerometers and tests have been performed including back-ground noise measurement, modal characterization and micro- vibration tests. The results provided responses to the perturbation coming from a reaction wheel or cryo-cooler compressors, operated independently then simultaneously with different operation modes. Using consistent modelling and associated experimental characterization techniques, a correlation status has been assessed by comparing test results with predictions based on FEM approach. Very good results have been achieved particularly for the case of a wheel in sweeping rate operation with test results over-predicted within a reasonable margin lower than two. Some limitations of the methodology have also been identified for sources operating at a fixed rate or coming with a small number of dominant harmonics and recommendations have been issued in order to deal with model uncertainties and stay conservative.

  18. A comprehensive model for the prediction of vibrations due to underground railway traffic: formulation and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Pedro Alvares; Cardoso Silva, Antonio; Calçada, Rui; Lopes, Patricia; Fernandez, Jesus

    2016-01-01

    n this communication, a numerical approach for the prediction of vibrations induced in buildings due to railway traffic in tunnels is presented. The numerical model is based on the concept of dynamic sub structuring, being composed by three autonomous models to simulate the following main parts of the problem: i) generation of vibrations (train-track interaction); ii) propagation of vibrations (track - tunnel-ground system); iii) reception of vibrations (building coupled to the ground). The methodology proposed allows dealing with the three-dimensional characteristics of the problem with a reasonable computational effort [ 1 , 2 ] . After the brief description of the model, its experimental validation is performed. For that, a case study about vibrations inside of a building close to a shallow railway tunnel in Madrid are simulated and the experimental data [ 3 ] is compared with the predicted results [ 4 ]. Finally, the communication finishes with some insights about the potentialities and challenges of this numerical modelling approach on the prediction of the behavior of ancient structures subjected to vibrations induced by human sources (railway and road traffic, pile driving, etc)

  19. Validity of bacterial pneumonia score for predicting bacteremia in children with pneumonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalia Theodosia Daten Beyeng

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Bacteremia in children with pneumonia reflects a severe condition, with longer duration of hospital care and potentially lethal complications. Early detection of bacteremia in patients with pneumonia may reduce serious complications. Few bacteremia screening tools have been widely used in chidren with pneumonia. One of those tools is the bacterial pneumonia score (BPS. Objective To assess the validity of the bacterial pneumonia score for predicting bacteremia in pediatric patients with pneumonia. Methods A diagnostic test was conducted on children aged 1 to 60 months hospitalized with pneumonia from December 2009 to August 2010. Subjects were collected consecutively. Pneumonia was diagnosed using the World Healt Organization (WHO criteria. Subjects underwent complete blood counts and blood culture examinations at admission. Statistical analyses included sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV/NPV, positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR/NLR, and post-test probability. Results Our study included 229 children. Based on BPS with a cut-off score of ≥ 4, the sensitivity was 83.3%, specificity 49.7%, PPV 8.4%, NPV 98.2%, PLR 1.66, NLR 0.31, and post-test probability 8.4% for detecting bacteremia in pediatric pneumonia patients. Conclusion BPS can not be used for predicting bacteremia in pediatric patients with pneumonia.

  20. The 2018 Definition of Periprosthetic Hip and Knee Infection: An Evidence-Based and Validated Criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvizi, Javad; Tan, Timothy L; Goswami, Karan; Higuera, Carlos; Della Valle, Craig; Chen, Antonia F; Shohat, Noam

    2018-05-01

    The introduction of the Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) criteria for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) in 2011 resulted in improvements in diagnostic confidence and research collaboration. The emergence of new diagnostic tests and the lessons we have learned from the past 7 years using the MSIS definition, prompted us to develop an evidence-based and validated updated version of the criteria. This multi-institutional study of patients undergoing revision total joint arthroplasty was conducted at 3 academic centers. For the development of the new diagnostic criteria, PJI and aseptic patient cohorts were stringently defined: PJI cases were defined using only major criteria from the MSIS definition (n = 684) and aseptic cases underwent one-stage revision for a noninfective indication and did not fail within 2 years (n = 820). Serum C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, erythrocyte sedimentation rate were investigated, as well as synovial white blood cell count, polymorphonuclear percentage, leukocyte esterase, alpha-defensin, and synovial CRP. Intraoperative findings included frozen section, presence of purulence, and isolation of a pathogen by culture. A stepwise approach using random forest analysis and multivariate regression was used to generate relative weights for each diagnostic marker. Preoperative and intraoperative definitions were created based on beta coefficients. The new definition was then validated on an external cohort of 222 patients with PJI who subsequently failed with reinfection and 200 aseptic patients. The performance of the new criteria was compared to the established MSIS and the prior International Consensus Meeting definitions. Two positive cultures or the presence of a sinus tract were considered as major criteria and diagnostic of PJI. The calculated weights of an elevated serum CRP (>1 mg/dL), D-dimer (>860 ng/mL), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (>30 mm/h) were 2, 2, and 1 points, respectively. Furthermore, elevated

  1. External Validation and Update of a Prediction Rule for the Duration of Sickness Absence Due to Common Mental Disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norder, Giny; Roelen, Corne A. M.; van der Klink, Jac J. L.; Bultmann, Ute; Sluiter, J. K.; Nieuwenhuijsen, K.

    Purpose The objective of the present study was to validate an existing prediction rule (including age, education, depressive/anxiety symptoms, and recovery expectations) for predictions of the duration of sickness absence due to common mental disorders (CMDs) and investigate the added value of

  2. OR25: Validity of predictive equations for resting energy expenditure for overweight older adults with and without diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verreijen, A. M.; Garrido, V.; Engberink, M.F.; Memelink, R. G.; Visser, M.; Weijs, P. J.

    2017-01-01

    Rationale: Predictive equations for resting energy expenditure (REE) are used in the treatment of overweight and obesity, but the validity of these equations in overweight older adults is unknown. This study evaluates which predictive REE equation is the best alternative to indirect calorimetry in

  3. A Study of the Predictive Validity of the Children's Depression Inventory for Major Depression Disorder in Puerto Rican Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Medina, Carmen L.; Bernal, Guillermo; Rossello, Jeannette; Cumba-Aviles, Eduardo

    2010-01-01

    This study aims to evaluate the predictive validity of the Children's Depression Inventory items for major depression disorder (MDD) in an outpatient clinic sample of Puerto Rican adolescents. The sample consisted of 130 adolescents, 13 to 18 years old. The five most frequent symptoms of the Children's Depression Inventory that best predict the…

  4. Brief Self-Efficacy Scales for use in Weight-Loss Trials: Preliminary Evidence of Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kathryn E.; Harden, Samantha M.; Almeida, Fabio A.; You, Wen; Hill, Jennie L.; Goessl, Cody; Estabrooks, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    Self-efficacy is a commonly included cognitive variable in weight-loss trials, but there is little uniformity in its measurement. Weight-loss trials frequently focus on physical activity (PA) and eating behavior, as well as weight loss, but no survey is available that offers reliable measurement of self-efficacy as it relates to each of these targeted outcomes. The purpose of this study was to test the psychometric properties of brief, pragmatic self-efficacy scales specific to PA, healthful eating and weight-loss (4 items each). An adult sample (n=1790) from 28 worksites enrolled in a worksite weight-loss program completed the self-efficacy scale, as well as measures of PA, dietary fat intake, and weight, at baseline, 6-, and 12-months. The hypothesized factor structure was tested through confirmatory factor analysis, which supported the expected factor structure for three latent self-efficacy factors, specific to PA, healthful eating, and weight-loss. Measurement equivalence/invariance between relevant demographic groups, and over time was also supported. Parallel growth processes in self-efficacy factors and outcomes (PA, fat intake, and weight) support the predictive validity of score interpretations. Overall, this initial series of psychometric analyses supports the interpretation that scores on these scales reflect self-efficacy for PA, healthful eating, and weight-loss. The use of this instrument in large-scale weight-loss trials is encouraged. PMID:26619093

  5. The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    Unpredictable dividend growth by the dividend-price ratio is considered a 'stylized fact' in post war US data. Using long-term data, covering more than 80 years from the US and three European countries, we revisit this stylized fact, and we also report results on return predictability. We find...... similar to those for the US. For Sweden and Denmark we find no evidence of return predictability, but strong evidence of predictable dividend growth in the 'right' direction on both short and long horizons and over both the full sample periods and the post war period. We also document that implied long......-horizon coefficients from VAR's often differ substantially from direct estimates in multi-year regres- sions. Throughout, we report both standard asymptotic tests and simulated small- sample tests and, following Cochrane (2008), we investigate the joint distribution of dividend-price ratio coefficients in return...

  6. Factor analysis methods and validity evidence: A systematic review of instrument development across the continuum of medical education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetzel, Angela Payne

    Previous systematic reviews indicate a lack of reporting of reliability and validity evidence in subsets of the medical education literature. Psychology and general education reviews of factor analysis also indicate gaps between current and best practices; yet, a comprehensive review of exploratory factor analysis in instrument development across the continuum of medical education had not been previously identified. Therefore, the purpose for this study was critical review of instrument development articles employing exploratory factor or principal component analysis published in medical education (2006--2010) to describe and assess the reporting of methods and validity evidence based on the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing and factor analysis best practices. Data extraction of 64 articles measuring a variety of constructs that have been published throughout the peer-reviewed medical education literature indicate significant errors in the translation of exploratory factor analysis best practices to current practice. Further, techniques for establishing validity evidence tend to derive from a limited scope of methods including reliability statistics to support internal structure and support for test content. Instruments reviewed for this study lacked supporting evidence based on relationships with other variables and response process, and evidence based on consequences of testing was not evident. Findings suggest a need for further professional development within the medical education researcher community related to (1) appropriate factor analysis methodology and reporting and (2) the importance of pursuing multiple sources of reliability and validity evidence to construct a well-supported argument for the inferences made from the instrument. Medical education researchers and educators should be cautious in adopting instruments from the literature and carefully review available evidence. Finally, editors and reviewers are encouraged to recognize

  7. Readmissions and death after ICU discharge: development and validation of two predictive models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Badawi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Early discharge from the ICU is desirable because it shortens time in the ICU and reduces care costs, but can also increase the likelihood of ICU readmission and post-discharge unanticipated death if patients are discharged before they are stable. We postulated that, using eICU® Research Institute (eRI data from >400 ICUs, we could develop robust models predictive of post-discharge death and readmission that may be incorporated into future clinical information systems (CIS to assist ICU discharge planning. METHODS: Retrospective, multi-center, exploratory cohort study of ICU survivors within the eRI database between 1/1/2007 and 3/31/2011. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: DNR or care limitations at ICU discharge and discharge to location external to hospital. Patients were randomized (2∶1 to development and validation cohorts. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on a broad range of variables including: patient demographics, ICU admission diagnosis, admission severity of illness, laboratory values and physiologic variables present during the last 24 hours of the ICU stay. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. The primary outcomes were the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (auROC in the validation cohorts for the models predicting readmission and death within 48 hours of ICU discharge. RESULTS: 469,976 and 234,987 patients representing 219 hospitals were in the development and validation cohorts. Early ICU readmission and death was experienced by 2.54% and 0.92% of all patients, respectively. The relationship between predictors and outcomes (death vs readmission differed, justifying the need for separate models. The models for early readmission and death produced auROCs of 0.71 and 0.92, respectively. Both models calibrated well across risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our models for death and readmission after ICU discharge showed good to excellent discrimination and good calibration. Although

  8. Development and validation of an ICD-10-based disability predictive index for patients admitted to hospitals with trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Tomoki; Yasunaga, Hideo; Yamana, Hayato; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Morimura, Naoto

    2018-03-01

    There was no established disability predictive measurement for patients with trauma that could be used in administrative claims databases. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a diagnosis-based disability predictive index for severe physical disability at discharge using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) coding. This retrospective observational study used the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database in Japan. Patients who were admitted to hospitals with trauma and discharged alive from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2015 were included. Pediatric patients under 15 years old were excluded. Data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2013 was used for development of a disability predictive index (derivation cohort), while data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2013 to 31 March 2015 was used for the internal validation (validation cohort). The outcome of interest was severe physical disability defined as the Barthel Index score of predictive index for each patient was defined as the sum of the scores. The predictive performance of the index was validated using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in the validation cohort. The derivation cohort included 1,475,158 patients, while the validation cohort included 939,659 patients. Of the 939,659 patients, 235,382 (25.0%) were discharged with severe physical disability. The c-statistics of the disability predictive index was 0.795 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.794-0.795), while that of a model using the disability predictive index and patient baseline characteristics was 0.856 (95% CI 0.855-0.857). Severe physical disability at discharge may be well predicted with patient age, sex, CCI score, and the diagnosis-based disability predictive index in patients admitted to hospitals with trauma. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Derivation and validation of a multivariable model to predict when primary care physicians prescribe antidepressants for indications other than depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong J

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Jenna Wong, Michal Abrahamowicz, David L Buckeridge, Robyn Tamblyn Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada Objective: Physicians commonly prescribe antidepressants for indications other than depression that are not evidence-based and need further evaluation. However, lack of routinely documented treatment indications for medications in administrative and medical databases creates a major barrier to evaluating antidepressant use for indications besides depression. Thus, the aim of this study was to derive a model to predict when primary care physicians prescribe antidepressants for indications other than depression and to identify important determinants of this prescribing practice. Methods: Prediction study using antidepressant prescriptions from January 2003–December 2012 in an indication-based electronic prescribing system in Quebec, Canada. Patients were linked to demographic files, medical billings data, and hospital discharge summary data to create over 370 candidate predictors. The final prediction model was derived on a random 75% sample of the data using 3-fold cross-validation integrated within a score-based forward stepwise selection procedure. The performance of the final model was assessed in the remaining 25% of the data. Results: Among 73,576 antidepressant prescriptions, 32,405 (44.0% were written for indications other than depression. Among 40 predictors in the final model, the most important covariates included the molecule name, the patient’s education level, the physician’s workload, the prescribed dose, and diagnostic codes for plausible indications recorded in the past year. The final model had good discrimination (concordance (c statistic 0.815; 95% CI, 0.787–0.847 and good calibration (ratio of observed to expected events 0.986; 95% CI, 0.842–1.136. Conclusion: In the absence of documented treatment indications, researchers may be able to use

  10. A simplified approach to the pooled analysis of calibration of clinical prediction rules for systematic reviews of validation studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrov BD

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Borislav D Dimitrov,1,2 Nicola Motterlini,2,† Tom Fahey2 1Academic Unit of Primary Care and Population Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; 2HRB Centre for Primary Care Research, Department of General Medicine, Division of Population Health Sciences, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, Dublin, Ireland †Nicola Motterlini passed away on November 11, 2012 Objective: Estimating calibration performance of clinical prediction rules (CPRs in systematic reviews of validation studies is not possible when predicted values are neither published nor accessible or sufficient or no individual participant or patient data are available. Our aims were to describe a simplified approach for outcomes prediction and calibration assessment and evaluate its functionality and validity. Study design and methods: Methodological study of systematic reviews of validation studies of CPRs: a ABCD2 rule for prediction of 7 day stroke; and b CRB-65 rule for prediction of 30 day mortality. Predicted outcomes in a sample validation study were computed by CPR distribution patterns (“derivation model”. As confirmation, a logistic regression model (with derivation study coefficients was applied to CPR-based dummy variables in the validation study. Meta-analysis of validation studies provided pooled estimates of “predicted:observed” risk ratios (RRs, 95% confidence intervals (CIs, and indexes of heterogeneity (I2 on forest plots (fixed and random effects models, with and without adjustment of intercepts. The above approach was also applied to the CRB-65 rule. Results: Our simplified method, applied to ABCD2 rule in three risk strata (low, 0–3; intermediate, 4–5; high, 6–7 points, indicated that predictions are identical to those computed by univariate, CPR-based logistic regression model. Discrimination was good (c-statistics =0.61–0.82, however, calibration in some studies was low. In such cases with miscalibration, the under-prediction

  11. Development and validation of a novel predictive scoring model for microvascular invasion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Hui; Hua, Ye; Dai, Tu; He, Jian; Tang, Min; Fu, Xu; Mao, Liang; Jin, Huihan; Qiu, Yudong

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study aimed to establish a novel predictive scoring model of MVI in HCC patients. • Preoperative imaging features on CECT, such as intratumoral arteries, non-nodule type and absence of radiological tumor capsule were independent predictors for MVI. • The predictive scoring model is of great value in prediction of MVI regardless of tumor size. - Abstract: Purpose: Microvascular invasion (MVI) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cannot be accurately predicted preoperatively. This study aimed to establish a predictive scoring model of MVI in solitary HCC patients without macroscopic vascular invasion. Methods: A total of 309 consecutive HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy were divided into the derivation (n = 206) and validation cohort (n = 103). A predictive scoring model of MVI was established according to the valuable predictors in the derivation cohort based on multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the predictive model was evaluated in the derivation and validation cohorts. Results: Preoperative imaging features on CECT, such as intratumoral arteries, non-nodular type of HCC and absence of radiological tumor capsule were independent predictors for MVI. The predictive scoring model was established according to the β coefficients of the 3 predictors. Area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of the predictive scoring model was 0.872 (95% CI, 0.817-0.928) and 0.856 (95% CI, 0.771-0.940) in the derivation and validation cohorts. The positive and negative predictive values were 76.5% and 88.0% in the derivation cohort and 74.4% and 88.3% in the validation cohort. The performance of the model was similar between the patients with tumor size ≤5 cm and >5 cm in AUROC (P = 0.910). Conclusions: The predictive scoring model based on intratumoral arteries, non-nodular type of HCC, and absence of the radiological tumor capsule on preoperative CECT is of great value in the prediction of MVI

  12. Development and validation of a novel predictive scoring model for microvascular invasion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Hui [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Medical University Affiliated Wuxi Second People' s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu (China); Hua, Ye [Department of Neurology, Nanjing Medical University Affiliated Wuxi Second People’s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu (China); Dai, Tu [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Medical University Affiliated Wuxi Second People' s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu (China); He, Jian; Tang, Min [Department of Radiology, Drum Tower Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Fu, Xu; Mao, Liang [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Jin, Huihan, E-mail: 45687061@qq.com [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Medical University Affiliated Wuxi Second People' s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu (China); Qiu, Yudong, E-mail: yudongqiu510@163.com [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China)

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • This study aimed to establish a novel predictive scoring model of MVI in HCC patients. • Preoperative imaging features on CECT, such as intratumoral arteries, non-nodule type and absence of radiological tumor capsule were independent predictors for MVI. • The predictive scoring model is of great value in prediction of MVI regardless of tumor size. - Abstract: Purpose: Microvascular invasion (MVI) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cannot be accurately predicted preoperatively. This study aimed to establish a predictive scoring model of MVI in solitary HCC patients without macroscopic vascular invasion. Methods: A total of 309 consecutive HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy were divided into the derivation (n = 206) and validation cohort (n = 103). A predictive scoring model of MVI was established according to the valuable predictors in the derivation cohort based on multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the predictive model was evaluated in the derivation and validation cohorts. Results: Preoperative imaging features on CECT, such as intratumoral arteries, non-nodular type of HCC and absence of radiological tumor capsule were independent predictors for MVI. The predictive scoring model was established according to the β coefficients of the 3 predictors. Area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of the predictive scoring model was 0.872 (95% CI, 0.817-0.928) and 0.856 (95% CI, 0.771-0.940) in the derivation and validation cohorts. The positive and negative predictive values were 76.5% and 88.0% in the derivation cohort and 74.4% and 88.3% in the validation cohort. The performance of the model was similar between the patients with tumor size ≤5 cm and >5 cm in AUROC (P = 0.910). Conclusions: The predictive scoring model based on intratumoral arteries, non-nodular type of HCC, and absence of the radiological tumor capsule on preoperative CECT is of great value in the prediction of MVI

  13. External validation of a biomarker and clinical prediction model for hospital mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhiguo; Wickersham, Nancy; Kangelaris, Kirsten N; May, Addison K; Bernard, Gordon R; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Koyama, Tatsuki; Ware, Lorraine B

    2017-08-01

    Mortality prediction in ARDS is important for prognostication and risk stratification. However, no prediction models have been independently validated. A combination of two biomarkers with age and APACHE III was superior in predicting mortality in the NHLBI ARDSNet ALVEOLI trial. We validated this prediction tool in two clinical trials and an observational cohort. The validation cohorts included 849 patients from the NHLBI ARDSNet Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), 144 patients from a clinical trial of sivelestat for ARDS (STRIVE), and 545 ARDS patients from the VALID observational cohort study. To evaluate the performance of the prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model discrimination, and calibration were assessed, and recalibration methods were applied. The biomarker/clinical prediction model performed well in all cohorts. Performance was better in the clinical trials with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) in FACTT, compared to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77) in VALID, a more heterogeneous observational cohort. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) when FACTT and VALID were combined. We validated a mortality prediction model for ARDS that includes age, APACHE III, surfactant protein D, and interleukin-8 in a variety of clinical settings. Although the model performance as measured by AUC was lower than in the original model derivation cohort, the biomarker/clinical model still performed well and may be useful for risk assessment for clinical trial enrollment, an issue of increasing importance as ARDS mortality declines, and better methods are needed for selection of the most severely ill patients for inclusion.

  14. Validity of the Clock Drawing Test in predicting reports of driving problems in the elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banou Evangelia

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study examined the use of the Folstein Mini Mental Status Exam (MMSE and the Clock Drawing Test (CDT in predicting retrospective reports of driving problems among the elderly. The utility of existing scoring systems for the CDT was also examined. Methods Archival chart records of 325 patients of a geriatric outpatient clinic were reviewed, of which 162 had CDT results (including original clock drawings. T-test, correlation, and regression procedures were used to analyze the data. Results Both CDT and MMSE scores were significantly worse among non-drivers than individuals who were currently or recently driving. Among current or recent drivers, scores on both instruments correlated significantly with the total number of reported accidents or near misses, although the magnitude of the respective correlations was small. Only MMSE scores, however, significantly predicted whether or not any accidents or near misses were reported at all. Neither MMSE nor CDT scores predicted unique variance in the regressions. Conclusions The overall results suggest that both the MMSE and CDT have limited utility as potential indicators of driving problems in the elderly. The demonstrated predictive power for these instruments appears to be redundant, such that both appear to assess general cognitive function versus more specific abilities. Furthermore, the lack of robust prediction suggests that neither are sufficient to serve as stand-alone instruments on which to solely base decisions of driving capacity. Rather, individuals who evidence impairment should be provided a more thorough and comprehensive assessment than can be obtained through screening tools.

  15. Predicting the success of IVF: external validation of the van Loendersloot's model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarais, Veronica; Reschini, Marco; Busnelli, Andrea; Biancardi, Rossella; Paffoni, Alessio; Somigliana, Edgardo

    2016-06-01

    Is the predictive model for IVF success proposed by van Loendersloot et al. valid in a different geographical and cultural context? The model discriminates well but was less accurate than in the original context where it was developed. Several independent groups have developed models that combine different variables with the aim of estimating the chance of pregnancy with IVF but only four of them have been externally validated. One of these four, the van Loendersloot's model, deserves particular attention and further investigation for at least three reasons; (i) the reported area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-statistics) in the temporal validation setting was the highest reported to date (0.68), (ii) the perspective of the model is clinically wise since it includes variables obtained from previous failed cycles, if any, so it can be applied to any women entering an IVF cycle, (iii) the model lacks external validation in a geographically different center. Retrospective cohort study of women undergoing oocyte retrieval for IVF between January 2013 and December 2013 at the infertility unit of the Fondazione Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico of Milan, Italy. Only the first oocyte retrieval cycle performed during the study period was included in the study. Women with previous IVF cycles were excluded if the last one before the study cycle was in another center. The main outcome was the cumulative live birth rate per oocytes retrieval. Seven hundred seventy-two women were selected. Variables included in the van Loendersloot's model and the relative weights (beta) were used. The variable resulting from this combination (Y) was transformed into a probability. The discriminatory capacity was assessed using the c-statistics. Calibration was made using a logistic regression that included Y as the unique variable and live birth as the outcome. Data are presented using both the original and the calibrated models. Performance was evaluated

  16. The Predictive Validity of using Admissions Testing and Multiple Mini-interviews in Undergraduate University Admissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makransky, Guido; Havmose, Philip S.; Vang, Maria Louison

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of a two-step admissions procedure that included a cognitive ability test followed by multiple mini-interviews (MMI) used to assess non-cognitive skills compared to a grade-based admissions relative to subsequent drop-out rates...... and academic achievement after one and two years of study. The participants consisted of the entire population of 422 psychology students who were admitted to the University of Southern Denmark between 2010 and 2013. The results showed significantly lower drop-out rates after the first year of study, and non......-significant lower drop-out rates after the second year of study for the admission procedure that included the assessment of non-cognitive skills though the MMI. Furthermore, this admission procedure resulted in a significant lower risk of failing the final exam after the first and second year of study, compared...

  17. Validation of a multi-marker model for the prediction of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyssenko, Valeriya; Jørgensen, Torben; Gerwien, Robert W

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To assess performance of a biomarker-based score that predicts the five-year risk of diabetes (Diabetes Risk Score, DRS) in an independent cohort that included 15-year follow-up. Method: DRS was developed on the Inter99 cohort, and validated on the Botnia cohort. Performance...... was benchmarked against other risk-assessment tools comparing calibration, time to event analysis, and net reclassification. Results: The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.84 for the Inter99 cohort and 0.78 for the Botnia cohort. In the Botnia cohort, DRS provided better...... discrimination than fasting plasma glucose (FPG), homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, oral glucose tolerance test or risk scores derived from Framingham or San Antonio Study cohorts. Overall reclassification with DRS was significantly better than using FPG and glucose tolerance status (p

  18. Validation Study of a Predictive Algorithm to Evaluate Opioid Use Disorder in a Primary Care Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Maneesh; Lee, Chee; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Tedtaotao, Maria; Smith, Gregory A.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Opioid abuse in chronic pain patients is a major public health issue. Primary care providers are frequently the first to prescribe opioids to patients suffering from pain, yet do not always have the time or resources to adequately evaluate the risk of opioid use disorder (OUD). Purpose: This study seeks to determine the predictability of aberrant behavior to opioids using a comprehensive scoring algorithm (“profile”) incorporating phenotypic and, more uniquely, genotypic risk factors. Methods and Results: In a validation study with 452 participants diagnosed with OUD and 1237 controls, the algorithm successfully categorized patients at high and moderate risk of OUD with 91.8% sensitivity. Regardless of changes in the prevalence of OUD, sensitivity of the algorithm remained >90%. Conclusion: The algorithm correctly stratifies primary care patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories to appropriately identify patients in need for additional guidance, monitoring, or treatment changes. PMID:28890908

  19. Validation of the ORIGEN-S code for predicting radionuclide inventories in used CANDU Fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tait, J.C.; Gauld, I.; Kerr, A.H.

    1994-10-01

    The safety assessment being conducted by AECL Research for the concept of deep geological disposal of used CANDU UO 2 fuel requires the calculation of radionuclide inventories in the fuel to provide source terms for radionuclide release. This report discusses the validation of selected actinide and fission-product inventories calculated using the ORIGEN-S code coupled with the WIMS-AECL lattice code, using data from analytical measurements of radioisotope inventories in Pickering CANDU reactor fuel. The recent processing of new ENDF/B-VI cross-section data has allowed the ORIGEN-S calculations to be performed using the most up-to-date nuclear data available. The results indicate that the code is reliably predicting actinide and the majority of fission-product inventories to within the analytical uncertainty. 38 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  20. Baseline social amotivation predicts 1-year functioning in UHR subjects: A validation and prospective investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Max; Abdul Rashid, Nur Amirah; Lee, Sara-Ann; Lim, Jeanette; Foussias, George; Fervaha, Gagan; Ruhrman, Stephan; Remington, Gary; Lee, Jimmy

    2015-12-01

    Social amotivation and diminished expression have been reported to underlie negative symptomatology in schizophrenia. In the current study we sought to establish and validate these negative symptom domains in a large cohort of schizophrenia subjects (n=887) and individuals who are deemed to be Ultra-High Risk (UHR) for psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis conducted on PANSS item domains demonstrate that the dual negative symptom domains exist in schizophrenia and UHR subjects. We further sought to examine if these negative symptom domains were associated with functioning in UHR subjects. Linear regression analyses confirmed that social amotivation predicted functioning in UHR subjects prospectively at 1 year follow up. Results suggest that the association between social amotivation and functioning is generalisable beyond schizophrenia populations to those who are at-risk of developing psychosis. Social amotivation may be an important dimensional clinical construct to be studied across a range of psychiatric conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  1. On the short circuit resilience of organic solar cells: prediction and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oostra, A Jolt; Smits, Edsger C P; de Leeuw, Dago M; Blom, Paul W M; Michels, Jasper J

    2015-09-07

    The operational characteristics of organic solar cells manufactured with large area processing methods suffers from the occurrence of short-circuits due to defects in the photoactive thin film stack. In this work we study the effect of a shunt resistance on an organic solar cell and demonstrate that device performance is not affected negatively as long as the shunt resistance is higher than approximately 1000 Ohm. By studying charge transport across PSS-lithium fluoride/aluminum (LiF/Al) shunting junctions we show that this prerequisite is already met by applying a sufficiently thick (>1.5 nm) LiF layer. We demonstrate that this remarkable shunt-resilience stems from the formation of a significant charge transport barrier at the PSS-LiF/Al interface. We validate our predictions by fabricating devices with deliberately severed photoactive layers and find an excellent agreement between the calculated and experimental current-voltage characteristics.

  2. Validation of the ORIGEN-S code for predicting radionuclide inventories in used CANDU fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tait, J.C.; Gauld, I.; Kerr, A.H.

    1995-01-01

    The safety assessment being conducted by AECL Research for the concept of deep geological disposal of used CANDU UO 2 fuel requires the calculation of radionuclide inventories in the fuel to provide source terms for radionuclide release. This report discusses the validation of selected actinide and fission-product inventories calculated using the ORIGEN-S code coupled with the WIMS-AECL lattice code, using data from analytical measurements of radioisotope inventories in Pickering CANDU reactor fuel. The recent processing of new ENDF/B-VI cross-section data has allowed the ORIGEN-S calculations to be performed using the most up-to-date nuclear data available. The results indicate that the code is reliably predicting actinide and the majority of fission-product inventories to within the analytical uncertainty. ((orig.))

  3. Predictive validity of the tobacco marketing receptivity index among non-smoking youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Sandra; Abad-Vivero, Erika Nayeli; Mejía, Raúl; Barrientos, Inti; Sargent, James D; Thrasher, James F

    2018-05-01

    In a previous cross-sectional study of early adolescents, we developed a marketing receptivity index (MRI) that integrates point-of-sale (PoS) marketing exposures, brand recall, and ownership of branded merchandise. The MRI had independent, positive associations with smoking susceptibility among never smokers and with current smoking behavior. The current longitudinal study assessed the MRI's predictive validity among adolescents who have never smoked cigarettes METHODS: Data come from a longitudinal, school-based survey of 33 secondary schools in Argentina. Students who had never smoked at baseline were followed up approximately 17months later (n=1700). Questions assessed: PoS marketing exposure by querying frequency of going to stores where tobacco is commonly sold; cued recall of brand names for 3 cigarette packages from dominant brands but with the brand name removed; and ownership of branded merchandise. A four-level MRI was derived: 1.low PoS marketing exposure only; 2. high PoS exposure or recall of 1 brand; 3. recall of 2 or more brands; and 4. ownership of branded merchandise. Logistic regression models regressed smoking initiation by follow up survey on the MRI, each of its components, and students' willingness to try a brand, adjusting for sociodemographics, social network smoking, and sensation seeking. The MRI had an independent positive association with smoking initiation. When analyzed separately, each MRI component was associated with outcomes except branded merchandise ownership. The MRI and its components were associated with smoking initiation, except for branded merchandise ownership, which may better predict smoking progression than initiation. The MRI appears valid and useful for future studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Predictive validity of the personal qualities assessment for selection of medical students in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowell, Jon; Lumsden, Mary Ann; Powis, David; Munro, Don; Bore, Miles; Makubate, Boikanyo; Kumwenda, Ben

    2011-01-01

    The Personal Qualities Assessment (PQA) was developed to enhance medical student selection by measuring a range of non-cognitive attributes in the applicants to medical school. Applicants to the five Scottish medical schools were invited to pilot the test in 2001 and 2002. To evaluate the predictive validity of PQA for selecting medical students. A longitudinal cohort study was conducted in which PQA scores were compared with senior year medical school performance. Consent to access performance markers was obtained from 626 students (61.6% of 1017 entrants in 2002-2003). Linkable Foundation Year (4th) rankings were available for 411 (66%) students and objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) rankings for 335 (54%) of those consenting. Both samples were representative of the original cohort. No significant correlations were detected between separate elements of the PQA assessment and student performance. However, using the algorithm advocated by Powis et al. those defined as 'non-extreme' (libertarian-communitarian moral orientation scales were ranked higher in OSCEs (average of 7.5% or 25 out of 335, p = 0.049). This study was limited by high attrition and basic outcome markers which are insensitive to relevant non-cognitive characteristics. However, it is the largest currently available study of predictive validity for the PQA assessment. There was one finding of significance: that those students who were identified by PQA as 'not extreme' on the two personal characteristics scales performed better in an OSCE measure of professionalism. Futures studies are required since psychometric testing for both cognitive and non-cognitive attributes are increasingly used in admission process and these should include more and better measures of professionalism against which to correlate non-cognitive traits.

  5. Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Arrais Rocha

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: 30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes. Objective: This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. Methods: Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD, ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping. Conclusion: We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

  6. A Practical Measure of Student Motivation: Establishing Validity Evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost Scale in Middle School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosovich, Jeff J.; Hulleman, Chris S.; Barron, Kenneth E.; Getty, Steve

    2015-01-01

    We present validity evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost (EVC) Scale of student motivation. Using a brief, 10-item scale, we measured middle school students' expectancy, value, and cost for their math and science classes in the Fall and Winter of the same academic year. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the three-factor structure of the EVC…

  7. Serum Gamma-Glutamyl-Transferase Independently Predicts Outcome After Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: External Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guiu, Boris, E-mail: boris.guiu@chu-dijon.fr; Deschamps, Frederic [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Interventional Radiology (France); Boulin, Mathieu [University Hospital, INSERM U866 (France); Boige, Valerie; Malka, David; Ducreux, Michel [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Digestive Oncology (France); Hillon, Patrick [University Hospital, INSERM U866 (France); Baere, Thierry de [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Interventional Radiology (France)

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: An Asian study showed that gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) can predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to validate in a European population this biomarker as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC and to determine a threshold value for clinical use. Methods: In 88 consecutive patients treated by TACE for HCC, the optimal threshold for GGT serum level was determined by a ROC analysis. Endpoints were time-to-treatment failure (TTTF) and overall survival (OS). All multivariate models were internally validated using bootstrapping (90 replications). Results: Median follow-up lasted 373 days, and median overall survival was 748 days. The optimal threshold for GGT was 165 U/L (sensitivity: 89.3%; specificity: 56.7%; area under the ROC curve: 0.7515). Median TTTF was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (281 days vs. 850 days; P < 0.001). GGT {>=}165 U/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.06; P = 0.02), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 5.4; P = 0.002), and tumor size (HR = 1.12; P = 0.014) were independently associated with shorter TTTF. Median OS was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (508 days vs. not reached; P < 0.001). GGT {>=} 165 U/L (HR = 3.05; P = 0.029), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 12.95; P < 0.001), alfa-fetoprotein (HR = 2.9; P = 0.01), and tumor size (HR = 1.096; P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter OS. The results were confirmed by bootstrapping. Conclusions: Our results provide in a European population the external validation of GGT as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC. A serum level of GGT {>=} 165 U/L is independently associated with both shorter TTTF and OS.

  8. Serum Gamma-Glutamyl-Transferase Independently Predicts Outcome After Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: External Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guiu, Boris; Deschamps, Frédéric; Boulin, Mathieu; Boige, Valérie; Malka, David; Ducreux, Michel; Hillon, Patrick; Baère, Thierry de

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: An Asian study showed that gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) can predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to validate in a European population this biomarker as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC and to determine a threshold value for clinical use. Methods: In 88 consecutive patients treated by TACE for HCC, the optimal threshold for GGT serum level was determined by a ROC analysis. Endpoints were time-to-treatment failure (TTTF) and overall survival (OS). All multivariate models were internally validated using bootstrapping (90 replications). Results: Median follow-up lasted 373 days, and median overall survival was 748 days. The optimal threshold for GGT was 165 U/L (sensitivity: 89.3%; specificity: 56.7%; area under the ROC curve: 0.7515). Median TTTF was shorter when GGT was ≥165 U/L (281 days vs. 850 days; P < 0.001). GGT ≥165 U/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.06; P = 0.02), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 5.4; P = 0.002), and tumor size (HR = 1.12; P = 0.014) were independently associated with shorter TTTF. Median OS was shorter when GGT was ≥165 U/L (508 days vs. not reached; P < 0.001). GGT ≥ 165 U/L (HR = 3.05; P = 0.029), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 12.95; P < 0.001), alfa-fetoprotein (HR = 2.9; P = 0.01), and tumor size (HR = 1.096; P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter OS. The results were confirmed by bootstrapping. Conclusions: Our results provide in a European population the external validation of GGT as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC. A serum level of GGT ≥ 165 U/L is independently associated with both shorter TTTF and OS.

  9. Validation of software components for the prediction of irradiation-induced damage of RPV steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergner, Frank; Birkenheuer, Uwe; Ulbricht, Andreas

    2010-04-01

    The modelling of irradiation-induced damage of RPV steels from primary cascades up to the change of mechanical properties bridging length scales from the atomic level up to the macro-scale and time scales up to years contributes essentially to an improved understanding of the phenomenon of neutron embrittlement. In future modelling may become a constituent of the procedure to evaluate RPV safety. The selected two-step approach is based upon the coupling of a rate-theory module aimed at simulating the evolution of the size distribution of defect-solute clusters with a hardening module aimed at predicting the yield stress increase. The scope of the investigation consists in the development and validation of corresponding numerical tools. In order to validate these tools, the output of representative simulations is compared with results from small-angle neutron scattering experiments and tensile tests performed for neutron-irradiated RPV steels. Using the developed rate-theory module it is possible to simulate the evolution of size, concentration and composition of mixed Cu-vacancy clusters over the relevant ranges of size up to 10.000 atoms and time up to tens of years. The connection between the rate-theory model and hardening is based upon both the mean spacing and the strength of obstacles for dislocation glide. As a result of the validation procedure of the numerical tools, we have found that essential trends of the irradiation-induced yield stress increase of Cu-bearing and low-Cu RPV steels are displayed correctly. First ideas on how to take into account the effect of Ni on both cluster evolution and hardening are worked out.

  10. A model to predict element redistribution in unsaturated soil: Its simplification and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheppard, M.I.; Stephens, M.E.; Davis, P.A.; Wojciechowski, L.

    1991-01-01

    A research model has been developed to predict the long-term fate of contaminants entering unsaturated soil at the surface through irrigation or atmospheric deposition, and/or at the water table through groundwater. The model, called SCEMR1 (Soil Chemical Exchange and Migration of Radionuclides, Version 1), uses Darcy's law to model water movement, and the soil solid/liquid partition coefficient, K d , to model chemical exchange. SCEMR1 has been validated extensively on controlled field experiments with several soils, aeration statuses and the effects of plants. These validation results show that the model is robust and performs well. Sensitivity analyses identified soil K d , annual effective precipitation, soil type and soil depth to be the four most important model parameters. SCEMR1 consumes too much computer time for incorporation into a probabilistic assessment code. Therefore, we have used SCEMR1 output to derive a simple assessment model. The assessment model reflects the complexity of its parent code, and provides a more realistic description of containment transport in soils than would a compartment model. Comparison of the performance of the SCEMR1 research model, the simple SCEMR1 assessment model and the TERRA compartment model on a four-year soil-core experiment shows that the SCEMR1 assessment model generally provides conservative soil concentrations. (15 refs., 3 figs.)

  11. New tools and new ideas for HR practitioners. Structural and predictive validity of weighted satisfaction questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Revuelto Taboada

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the fundamental tasks for an Human Resource Management (HRM practitioner consists in designing a reward system that can be broadly understood and can influence the attitudes and, subsequently, the behavior of individuals to permit achievement of organizational objectives. To do so, appropriate tools are necessary to allow key actions to be identified in terms of motivating employees; thereby, avoiding opportunistic costs derived from allocating resources needed to close the gap in employee satisfaction, with regard to non-priority factors for workers in satisfying their own personal needs. This article, thus, presents a dual assessment scale consisting of 44 items, categorized into six dimensions, which firstly evaluates the importance of motivation and, secondly, the level of satisfaction with the current situation for each of the 44 factors considered. Using a sample of 801 individuals, we analyzedthe internal consistency, face validity, and predictive validity of the measuring scales, obtaining a series of results that were, to say the least, promising

  12. Validation of MATRA-S Low Flow Predictions Using PNL 2x6 Mixed Convection Test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Kyong-Won; Kwon, Hyuk; Kim, Seong-Jin; Hwang, Dae-Hyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The MATRA-S, a subchannel analysis code has been used to thermal-hydraulic design of SMART core. As the safety enhancement is getting important more and more, some features of the MATRA-S code are required to be validated in order to be applied to nonnominal operating conditions in addition to its applicability to reactor design under normal operating conditions. The MATRA-S code has two numerical schemes, SCHEME for implicit application and XSCHEM for explicit one. The implicit scheme had been developed under assumptions that the axial flow is larger enough than the crossflow. Under certain conditions, especially low flow and low pressure operating conditions, this implicit SCHEME oscillates or becomes unstable numerically and then MATRA-S fails to obtain good solution. These demerits were known as common in implicit schemes of many COBRA families. Efforts have been exerted to resolve these limitations in SCHEME of the MATRA-S such as a once through marching scheme against the multi-pass marching scheme and an adaptive multi-grid method. These remedies can reduce the numerically unstable range for SCHEME but some unstable regions still remain. The XSCHEM, an explicit scheme of MATRA-S was validated using the PNL 2x6 rod bundle flow transient test. The explicit scheme agreed with implicit scheme for steady state calculations. And it showed its capability to predict low flow conditions such as negative flow and recirculation flow.

  13. Predicting environmental aspects of CCSR leachates through the application of scientifically valid leaching protocols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassett, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    The disposal of solid wastes from energy production, particularly solid wastes from coal conversion processes, requires a thorough understanding of the waste material as well as the disposal environment. Many coal conversion solid residues (CCSRs) have chemical, mineralogical, and physical properties advantageous for use as engineering construction materials and in other industrial applications. If disposal is to be the final disposition of CCSRs from any source, the very properties that can make ash useful also contribute to behavior that must be understood for scientifically logical and environmentally responsible disposal. This paper describes the application of scientifically valid leaching and characterization tests designed to predict field phenomena. The key to proper characterization of these unique materials is the recognition of and compensation for the hydration reactions that can occur during long-term leaching. Many of these reactions, such as the formation of the mineral ettringite, can have a profound effect on the concentration of potentially problematic trace elements such as boron, chromium, and selenium. The mobility of these elements, which may be concentrated in CCSRs due to the conversion process, must be properly evaluated for the formation of informed and scientifically sound decisions regarding safe disposal. Groundwater is an extremely important and relatively scarce resource. Contamination of this resource is a threat to life, which is highly dependent on it, so management of materials that can impact groundwater must be carefully planned and executed. The application of scientifically valid leaching protocols and complete testing are critical to proper waste management

  14. Structural Validity of the MACI Psychopathy and Narcissism Scales: Evidence of Multidimensionality and Implications for Use in Research and Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penney, Stephanie R.; Moretti, Marlene M.; Da Silva, Kimberley S.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the psychometric properties and predictive validity of three self-report scales (the Psychopathy Content Scale, the Psychopathy-16 scale, and the Egotistic scale) derived from the Millon Adolescent Clinical Inventory (MACI) to screen for the presence of psychopathic and narcissistic personality characteristics. Exploratory…

  15. What is required for the validation of in vitro assays for predicting contaminant relative bioavailability? Considerations and criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juhasz, Albert L.; Basta, Nicholas T.; Smith, Euan

    2013-01-01

    A number of studies have shown the potential of in vitro assays to predict contaminant in vivo relative bioavailability in order to refine human health exposure assessment. Although the term ‘validated’ has been used to describe the goodness of fit between in vivo and in vitro observations, its misuse has arisen from semantic considerations in addition to the lack of defined criteria for establishing performance validation. While several internal validation methods may be utilised, performance validation should preferably focus on assessing the agreement of model predictions with a set of data which are independent of those used to construct the model. In order to achieve robust validated predictive models, a number of parameters (e.g. size of data set, source of independent soils, contaminant concentration range, animal model, relative bioavailability endpoint) need to be considered in addition to defined criteria for establishing performance validation which are currently lacking. -- Defined criteria for establishing in vivo–in vitro performance validation are required in order to ensure robust, defensible predictive models for human health exposure assessment

  16. External Validation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity of the Modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity Scoring System to Predict Stone-Free Status After Retrograde Intrarenal Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juhyun; Kang, Minyong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Oh, Sohee; Lee, Jeong Woo; Lee, Seung Bae; Son, Hwancheol; Jeong, Hyeon; Cho, Sung Yong

    2015-08-01

    The modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity scoring system (S-ReSC-R) for retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) was developed as a tool to predict stone-free rate (SFR) after RIRS. We externally validated the S-ReSC-R. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients who underwent RIRS. The S-ReSC-R was assigned from 1 to 12 according to the location and number of sites involved. The stone-free status was defined as no evidence of a stone or with clinically insignificant residual fragment stones less than 2 mm. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities were evaluated. Statistical performance of the prediction model was assessed by its predictive accuracy, predictive probability, and clinical usefulness. Overall SFR was 73.0%. The SFRs were 86.7%, 70.2%, and 48.6% in low-score (1-2), intermediate-score (3-4), and high-score (5-12) groups, respectively (pR revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.731 (95% CI 0.650-0.813). The AUC of the three-titered S-ReSC-R was 0.701 (95% CI 0.609-0.794). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probability of SFR had a concordance comparable to that of observed frequency. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test revealed a p-value of 0.01 for the S-ReSC-R and 0.90 for the three-titered S-ReSC-R. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities revealed an almost perfect level of agreement. The present study proved the predictive value of S-ReSC-R to predict SFR following RIRS in an independent cohort. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities confirmed that S-ReSC-R was reliable and valid.

  17. New Perspectives on the Validity of the "GRE"® General Test for Predicting Graduate School Grades. ETS GRE® Board Research Report. ETS GRE®-14-03. ETS Research Report. RR-14-26

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klieger, David M.; Cline, Frederick A.; Holtzman, Steven L.; Minsky, Jennifer L.; Lorenz, Florian

    2014-01-01

    Given the serious consequences of making ill-fated admissions and funding decisions for applicants to graduate and professional school, it is important to rely on sound evidence to optimize such judgments. Previous meta-analytic research has demonstrated the generalizable validity of the "GRE"® General Test for predicting academic…

  18. Hardiness scales in Iranian managers: evidence of incremental validity in relationships with the five factor model and with organizational and psychological adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, Nima; Watson, P J

    2005-06-01

    This study examined the incremental validity of Hardiness scales in a sample of Iranian managers. Along with measures of the Five Factor Model and of Organizational and Psychological Adjustment, Hardiness scales were administered to 159 male managers (M age = 39.9, SD = 7.5) who had worked in their organizations for 7.9 yr. (SD=5.4). Hardiness predicted greater Job Satisfaction, higher Organization-based Self-esteem, and perceptions of the work environment as being less stressful and constraining. Hardiness also correlated positively with Assertiveness, Emotional Stability, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness and negatively with Depression, Anxiety, Perceived Stress, Chance External Control, and a Powerful Others External Control. Evidence of incremental validity was obtained when the Hardiness scales supplemented the Five Factor Model in predicting organizational and psychological adjustment. These data documented the incremental validity of the Hardiness scales in a non-Western sample and thus confirmed once again that Hardiness has a relevance that extends beyond the culture in which it was developed.

  19. The validation and assessment of machine learning: a game of prediction from high-dimensional data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tune H Pers

    Full Text Available In applied statistics, tools from machine learning are popular for analyzing complex and high-dimensional data. However, few theoretical results are available that could guide to the appropriate machine learning tool in a new application. Initial development of an overall strategy thus often implies that multiple methods are tested and compared on the same set of data. This is particularly difficult in situations that are prone to over-fitting where the number of subjects is low compared to the number of potential predictors. The article presents a game which provides some grounds for conducting a fair model comparison. Each player selects a modeling strategy for predicting individual response from potential predictors. A strictly proper scoring rule, bootstrap cross-validation, and a set of rules are used to make the results obtained with different strategies comparable. To illustrate the ideas, the game is applied to data from the Nugenob Study where the aim is to predict the fat oxidation capacity based on conventional factors and high-dimensional metabolomics data. Three players have chosen to use support vector machines, LASSO, and random forests, respectively.

  20. Validation of the FAST skating protocol to predict aerobic power in ice hockey players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrella, Nicholas J; Montelpare, William J; Nystrom, Murray; Plyley, Michael; Faught, Brent E

    2007-08-01

    Few studies have reported a sport-specific protocol to measure the aerobic power of ice hockey players using a predictive process. The purpose of our study was to validate an ice hockey aerobic field test on players of varying ages, abilities, and levels. The Faught Aerobic Skating Test (FAST) uses an on-ice continuous skating protocol on a course measuring 160 feet (48.8 m) using a CD to pace the skater with a beep signal to cross the starting line at each end of the course. The FAST incorporates the principle of increasing workload at measured time intervals during a continuous skating exercise. Step-wise multiple regression modelling was used to determine the estimate of aerobic power. Participants completed a maximal aerobic power test using a modified Bruce incremental treadmill protocol, as well as the on-ice FAST. Normative data were collected on 406 ice hockey players (291 males, 115 females) ranging in age from 9 to 25 y. A regression to predict maximum aerobic power was developed using body mass (kg), height (m), age (y), and maximum completed lengths of the FAST as the significant predictors of skating aerobic power (adjusted R2 = 0.387, SEE = 7.25 mL.kg-1.min-1, p < 0.0001). These results support the application of the FAST in estimating aerobic power among male and female competitive ice hockey players between the ages of 9 and 25 years.

  1. Capability beliefs regarding evidence-based practice are associated with application of EBP and research use: validation of a new measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallin, Lars; Boström, Anne-Marie; Gustavsson, J Petter

    2012-08-01

    Beliefs about capabilities, or self-efficacy, is a construct originating in social cognitive psychology. Capability beliefs have been found to be positively associated with intention and healthcare practice behaviour. A measure of an individual's beliefs about his/her capability to apply the components of evidence-based practice (EBP) has potential to be useful in implementation research. To evaluate the concurrent validity and internal structure of a new scale measuring nurses' capability beliefs regarding EBP. Data were taken from a prospective longitudinal study in Sweden (the Longitudinal Analyses of Nursing Education and Entry in Worklife [LANE]). A cohort of nursing students who graduated in the autumn of 2004 that was followed up 2 years after their graduation was used (n= 1,256). Concurrent validity was tested relating different levels of capability beliefs to extent of research use and application of EBP. An item-response approach was applied in the evaluation of internal structure of the proposed scale (six items). The psychometric analyses indicated that the six items could be summed to reflect a one-dimensional scale. Nurses with the highest level of capability beliefs reported that they used research findings in clinical practice more than twice as often as those with lower levels of capability beliefs. They also participated in the implementation of evidence seven times more often. There is a need for further studies of the construct and predictive validity of the scale. It should also be validated in other groups of health professionals. Learning including mastery experiences, role modelling, social persuasion, and manageable stress could be used in undergraduate education as well as practice development to increase beliefs about capabilities which might open the way to increased application of EBP in healthcare practice. This new measure is well grounded in social cognitive theory, functions as a one-dimensional scale and possesses promising

  2. Predictive information processing is a fundamental learning mechanism present in early development: evidence from infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trainor, Laurel J

    2012-02-01

    Evidence is presented that predictive coding is fundamental to brain function and present in early infancy. Indeed, mismatch responses to unexpected auditory stimuli are among the earliest robust cortical event-related potential responses, and have been measured in young infants in response to many types of deviation, including in pitch, timing, and melodic pattern. Furthermore, mismatch responses change quickly with specific experience, suggesting that predictive coding reflects a powerful, early-developing learning mechanism. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Simple knowledge-based descriptors to predict protein-ligand interactions. Methodology and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissink, J. Willem M.; Verdonk, Marcel L.; Klebe, Gerhard

    2000-11-01

    A new type of shape descriptor is proposed to describe the spatial orientation for non-covalent interactions. It is built from simple, anisotropic Gaussian contributions that are parameterised by 10 adjustable values. The descriptors have been used to fit propensity distributions derived from scatter data stored in the IsoStar database. This database holds composite pictures of possible interaction geometries between a common central group and various interacting moieties, as extracted from small-molecule crystal structures. These distributions can be related to probabilities for the occurrence of certain interaction geometries among different functional groups. A fitting procedure is described that generates the descriptors in a fully automated way. For this purpose, we apply a similarity index that is tailored to the problem, the Split Hodgkin Index. It accounts for the similarity in regions of either high or low propensity in a separate way. Although dependent on the division into these two subregions, the index is robust and performs better than the regular Hodgkin index. The reliability and coverage of the fitted descriptors was assessed using SuperStar. SuperStar usually operates on the raw IsoStar data to calculate propensity distributions, e.g., for a binding site in a protein. For our purpose we modified the code to have it operate on our descriptors instead. This resulted in a substantial reduction in calculation time (factor of five to eight) compared to the original implementation. A validation procedure was performed on a set of 130 protein-ligand complexes, using four representative interacting probes to map the properties of the various binding sites: ammonium nitrogen, alcohol oxygen, carbonyl oxygen, and methyl carbon. The predicted `hot spots' for the binding of these probes were compared to the actual arrangement of ligand atoms in experimentally determined protein-ligand complexes. Results indicate that the version of SuperStar that applies to

  4. Validating severity of illness scoring systems in the prediction of outcomes in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Mamta; Szpunar, Susan; Khatib, Riad

    2013-08-01

    Severity of illness scores are helpful in predicting mortality; however, no standardized scoring system has been validated in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB). The modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), the CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age 65) and the Charlson weighted index of comorbidity (CWIC) were compared in predicting outcomes at the onset of SAB. All adult inpatients with SAB from July 15, 2008, to December 31, 2009, were prospectively assessed. The 3 scoring systems were applied: REMS, CURB-65 and CWIC. The end points were attributable and overall mortality. A total of 241 patients with SAB were reviewed during the study period. The all-cause mortality rate was 22.8% and attributable mortality 14.1%. Patients who died had higher mean CURB-65 score and REMS than those who lived, whereas the difference in the CWIC score was not significant. Two logistic regression models based on CURB-65 score or REMS, after controlling for CWIC, revealed that both scores were independent predictors of mortality, with an odds ratio of 3.38 (P < 0.0001) and 1.45 (P < 0.0001) for CURB-65 and REMS, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that a cutoff point of 3.0 (CURB-65) and 6.0 (REMS) provided the highest sensitivity and specificity. The area under the curves for all-cause mortality were 0.832 and 0.806, and for attributable mortality 0.845 and 0.819, for CURB-65 and REMS, respectively. REMS and CURB-65 scores outperformed CWIC as predictors of mortality in SAB and may be effective in predicting the severity of illness at the onset of bacteremia.

  5. Predictive Validity and Adjustment of Ideal Partner Preferences Across the Transition Into Romantic Relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlach, Tanja M; Arslan, Ruben C; Schultze, Thomas; Reinhard, Selina K; Penke, Lars

    2017-09-18

    Although empirical research has investigated what we ideally seek in a romantic partner for decades, the crucial question of whether ideal partner preferences actually guide our mating decisions in real life has remained largely unanswered. One reason for this is the lack of designs that assess individuals' ideal partner preferences before entering a relationship and then follow up on them over an extended period. In the Göttingen Mate Choice Study (GMCS), a preregistered, large-scale online study, we used such a naturalistic prospective design. We investigated partner preferences across 4 preference domains in a large sample of predominantly heterosexual singles (N = 763, aged 18-40 years) and tracked these individuals across a period of 5 months upon a possible transition into romantic relationships. Attesting to their predictive validity, partner preferences prospectively predicted the characteristics of later partners. This was equally true for both sexes, except for vitality-attractiveness where men's preferences were more predictive of their later partners' standing on this dimension than women's. Self-perceived mate value did not moderate the preference-partner characteristics relations. Preferences proved to be relatively stable across the 5 months interval, yet were less stable for those who entered a relationship. Subgroup analyses using a newly developed indicator of preference adjustment toward (vs. away from) partner characteristics revealed that participants adjusted their preferences downward when partners fell short of initial preferences, but showed no consistent adjustment when partners exceeded them. Results and implications are discussed against the background of ongoing controversies in mate choice and romantic relationship research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Predictive validity of driving-simulator assessments following traumatic brain injury: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lew, Henry L; Poole, John H; Lee, Eun Ha; Jaffe, David L; Huang, Hsiu-Chen; Brodd, Edward

    2005-03-01

    To evaluate whether driving simulator and road test evaluations can predict long-term driving performance, we conducted a prospective study on 11 patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury. Sixteen healthy subjects were also tested to provide normative values on the simulator at baseline. At their initial evaluation (time-1), subjects' driving skills were measured during a 30-minute simulator trial using an automated 12-measure Simulator Performance Index (SPI), while a trained observer also rated their performance using a Driving Performance Inventory (DPI). In addition, patients were evaluated on the road by a certified driving evaluator. Ten months later (time-2), family members observed patients driving for at least 3 hours over 4 weeks and rated their driving performance using the DPI. At time-1, patients were significantly impaired on automated SPI measures of driving skill, including: speed and steering control, accidents, and vigilance to a divided-attention task. These simulator indices significantly predicted the following aspects of observed driving performance at time-2: handling of automobile controls, regulation of vehicle speed and direction, higher-order judgment and self-control, as well as a trend-level association with car accidents. Automated measures of simulator skill (SPI) were more sensitive and accurate than observational measures of simulator skill (DPI) in predicting actual driving performance. To our surprise, the road test results at time-1 showed no significant relation to driving performance at time-2. Simulator-based assessment of patients with brain injuries can provide ecologically valid measures that, in some cases, may be more sensitive than a traditional road test as predictors of long-term driving performance in the community.

  7. Prediction of low birth weight delivery by maternal status and its validation: Decision curve analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehri Rejali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In this study, we evaluated assessed elements connected with low birth weight (LBW and used decision curve analysis (DCA to define a scale to anticipate the probability of having a LBW newborn child. Methods: This hospital-based case–control study was led in Arak Hospital in Iran. The study included 470 mothers with LBW neonate and 470 mothers with natural neonates. Information were gathered by meeting moms utilizing preplanned organized questionnaire and from hospital records. The estimated probabilities of detecting LBW were calculated using the logistic regression and DCA to quantify the clinical consequences and its validation. Results: Factors significantly associated with LBW were premature membrane rupture (odds ratio [OR] = 3.18 [1.882–5.384], former LBW infants (OR = 2.99 [1.510–5.932], premature pain (OR = 2.70 [1.659–4.415], hypertension in pregnancy (OR = 2.39 [1.429–4.019], last trimester of pregnancy bleeding (OR = 2.58 [1.018–6.583], mother age >30 (OR = 2.17 [1.350–3.498]. However, with DCA, the prediction model made on these 15 variables has a net benefit (NB of 0.3110 is best predictive with the highest NB. NB has simple clinical interpretation and utilizing the model is what might as well be called a procedure that distinguished what might as well be called 31.1 LBW per 100 cases with no superfluous recognize. Conclusions: It is conceivable to foresee LBW utilizing a prediction model show in light of noteworthy hazard components connected with LBW. The majority of the hazard elements for LBW are preventable, and moms can be alluded amid early pregnancy to a middle which is furnished with facilities for administration of high hazard pregnancy and LBW infant.

  8. Status self-validation of a multifunctional sensor using a multivariate relevance vector machine and predictive filters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen, Zhengguang; Wang, Qi

    2013-01-01

    A novel strategy by using a multivariable relevance vector machine coupled with predictive filters for status self-validation of a multifunctional sensor is proposed. The working principle and online updating algorithm of predictive filters are emphasized for multiple fault detection, isolation and recovery (FDIR), and the incorrect sensor measurements are validated online. The multivariable relevance vector machine is then employed for the signal reconstruction of the multifunctional sensor to generate the final validated measurement values (VMV) of multiple measured components, in which its advantages of sparse models and multivariable simultaneous outputs are fully used. With all likely uncertainty sources of the multifunctional self-validating sensor taken into account, the uncertainty propagation model is deduced in detail to evaluate the online validated uncertainty (VU) under a fault-free situation while a qualitative uncertainty component is appended to indicate the accuracy changes of VMV under different types of fault. A real experimental system of a multifunctional self-validating sensor is designed to verify the performance of the proposed strategy. From the real-time capacity and fault recovery accuracy of FDIR, and runtime of signal reconstruction under small samples, a performance comparison among different methods is made. Results demonstrate that the proposed scheme provides a better solution to the status self-validation of a multifunctional self-validating sensor under both normal and abnormal situations. (paper)

  9. Validation of a Predictive Model for Survival in Metastatic Cancer Patients Attending an Outpatient Palliative Radiotherapy Clinic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chow, Edward; Abdolell, Mohamed; Panzarella, Tony; Harris, Kristin; Bezjak, Andrea; Warde, Padraig; Tannock, Ian

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To validate a predictive model for survival of patients attending a palliative radiotherapy clinic. Methods and Materials: We described previously a model that had good predictive value for survival of patients referred during 1999 (1). The six prognostic factors (primary cancer site, site of metastases, Karnofsky performance score, and the fatigue, appetite and shortness-of-breath items from the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale) identified in this training set were extracted from the prospective database for the year 2000. We generated a partial score whereby each prognostic factor was assigned a value proportional to its prognostic weight. The sum of the partial scores for each patient was used to construct a survival prediction score (SPS). Patients were also grouped according to the number of these risk factors (NRF) that they possessed. The probability of survival at 3, 6, and 12 months was generated. The models were evaluated for their ability to predict survival in this validation set with appropriate statistical tests. Results: The median survival and survival probabilities of the training and validation sets were similar when separated into three groups using both SPS and NRF methods. There was no statistical difference in the performance of the SPS and NRF methods in survival prediction. Conclusion: Both the SPS and NRF models for predicting survival in patients referred for palliative radiotherapy have been validated. The NRF model is preferred because it is simpler and avoids the need to remember the weightings among the prognostic factors

  10. Validity of CBCL-derived PTSD and dissociation scales: further evidence in a sample of neglected children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milot, Tristan; Plamondon, André; Ethier, Louise S; Lemelin, Jean-Pascal; St-Laurent, Diane; Rousseau, Michel

    2013-05-01

    There is growing evidence that child neglect is an important risk factor for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociation. Considering that the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) is a widely used measure, the possibility of using validated CBCL-derived trauma symptoms scales could be particularly useful to better understand how trauma symptoms develop among neglected children and adolescents. This study examined the factor structure of three CBCL-derived measures of PTSD and dissociation (namely, PTSD scale, Dissociation scale, and PTSD/Dissociation scale) in a sample of 239 neglected children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 years using the latest version of CBCL (CBCL 6-18). Evidence of convergent validity of these scales was also examined for participants aged 12 and under using two well-validated measures of PTSD and Dissociation: the Trauma Symptoms Checklist for Young Children and the Child Dissociation Checklist. Findings suggest that CBCL-derived measures of trauma symptoms, especially PTSD and Dissociations scales, may be of heuristic value in the study of trauma symptomatology in neglected samples. Factor structure and evidence of convergent validity were supported for these two scales. Results also provide further support to the well-established assumption that PTSD and dissociation are two related but different constructs.

  11. Predicting Persistent Back Symptoms by Psychosocial Risk Factors: Validity Criteria for the ÖMPSQ and the HKF-R 10 in Germany.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Riewe

    Full Text Available 10% of all individuals in Germany develop persistent symptoms due to nonspecific back pain (NSBP causing up to 90% of direct and indirect expenses for health care systems. Evidence indicates a strong relationship between chronic nonspecific back pain and psychosocial risk factors. The Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (ÖMPSQ and the German Heidelberger Kurzfragebogen Rückenschmerz (HKF-R 10 are deemed valid in prediction of persistent pain, functional loss or amount of sick leave. This study provides and discusses validity criteria for these questionnaires using ROC-curve analyses. Quality measurements included sensitivity and specificity, likelihood-ratio related test-efficiencies and clinical utility in regard to predictive values.265 patients recruited from primary and secondary care units completed both questionnaires during the same timeframe. From the total, 133 patients returned a 6-month follow-up questionnaire to assess the validity criteria for outcomes of pain, function and sick leave.Based on heterogeneous cut-offs for the ÖMPSQ, sensitivity and specificity were moderate for outcome of pain (72%/75%. Very high sensitivity was observed for function (97%/57% and high specificity for sick leave (63%/85%. The latter also applied to the HKF-R 10 (pain 50%/84%. Proportions between sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced except for the ÖMPSQ outcome of pain. Likelihood-ratios and positive predictive values ranged from low to moderate.Although the ÖMPSQ may be considered useful in identification of long-term functional loss or pain, over- and underestimation of patients at risk of chronic noncspecific back pain led to limited test-efficiencies and clinical utility for both questionnaires. Further studies are required to quantify the predictive validity of both questionnaires in Germany.

  12. NoGOA: predicting noisy GO annotations using evidences and sparse representation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Guoxian; Lu, Chang; Wang, Jun

    2017-07-21

    Gene Ontology (GO) is a community effort to represent functional features of gene products. GO annotations (GOA) provide functional associations between GO terms and gene products. Due to resources limitation, only a small portion of annotations are manually checked by curators, and the others are electronically inferred. Although quality control techniques have been applied to ensure the quality of annotations, the community consistently report that there are still considerable noisy (or incorrect) annotations. Given the wide application of annotations, however, how to identify noisy annotations is an important but yet seldom studied open problem. We introduce a novel approach called NoGOA to predict noisy annotations. NoGOA applies sparse representation on the gene-term association matrix to reduce the impact of noisy annotations, and takes advantage of sparse representation coefficients to measure the semantic similarity between genes. Secondly, it preliminarily predicts noisy annotations of a gene based on aggregated votes from semantic neighborhood genes of that gene. Next, NoGOA estimates the ratio of noisy annotations for each evidence code based on direct annotations in GOA files archived on different periods, and then weights entries of the association matrix via estimated ratios and propagates weights to ancestors of direct annotations using GO hierarchy. Finally, it integrates evidence-weighted association matrix and aggregated votes to predict noisy annotations. Experiments on archived GOA files of six model species (H. sapiens, A. thaliana, S. cerevisiae, G. gallus, B. Taurus and M. musculus) demonstrate that NoGOA achieves significantly better results than other related methods and removing noisy annotations improves the performance of gene function prediction. The comparative study justifies the effectiveness of integrating evidence codes with sparse representation for predicting noisy GO annotations. Codes and datasets are available at http://mlda.swu.edu.cn/codes.php?name=NoGOA .

  13. Evidence for the Criterion Validity and Clinical Utility of the Pathological Narcissism Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Katherine M.; Wright, Aidan G. C.; Lukowitsky, Mark R.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J.

    2012-01-01

    In this study, the authors evaluated aspects of criterion validity and clinical utility of the grandiosity and vulnerability components of the Pathological Narcissism Inventory (PNI) using two undergraduate samples (N = 299 and 500). Criterion validity was assessed by evaluating the correlations of narcissistic grandiosity and narcissistic…

  14. The Cerebral Palsy Quality of Life for Children (CP QOL-Child): Evidence of Construct Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kuan-Lin; Wang, Hui-Yi; Tseng, Mei-Hui; Shieh, Jeng-Yi; Lu, Lu; Yao, Kai-Ping Grace; Huang, Chien-Yu

    2013-01-01

    The Cerebral Palsy Quality of Life for Children (CP QOL-Child) is the first health condition-specific questionnaire designed for measuring QOL in children with cerebral palsy (CP). However, its construct validity has not yet been confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Hence, this study assessed the construct validity of the caregiver…

  15. Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate survival in patients with colorectal cancer: cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate absolute and conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer. \\ud \\ud Design: Cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database linked to the national cancer registry.\\ud \\ud Participants: 44 145 patients aged 15-99 with colorectal cancer from 947 practices to derive the equations. The equations were validated in 15 214 patients with colorectal cancer ...

  16. Development and validation of a CFD model predicting the backfill process of a nuclear waste gallery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopala, Vinay Ramohalli; Lycklama a Nijeholt, Jan-Aiso; Bakker, Paul; Haverkate, Benno

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → This work presents the CFD simulation of the backfill process of Supercontainers with nuclear waste emplaced in a disposal gallery. → The cement-based material used for backfill is grout and the flow of grout is modelled as a Bingham fluid. → The model is verified against an analytical solution and validated against the flowability tests for concrete. → Comparison between backfill plexiglas experiment and simulation shows a distinct difference in the filling pattern. → The numerical model needs to be further developed to include segregation effects and thixotropic behavior of grout. - Abstract: Nuclear waste material may be stored in underground tunnels for long term storage. The example treated in this article is based on the current Belgian disposal concept for High-Level Waste (HLW), in which the nuclear waste material is packed in concrete shielded packages, called Supercontainers, which are inserted into these tunnels. After placement of the packages in the underground tunnels, the remaining voids between the packages and the tunnel lining is filled-up with a cement-based material called grout in order to encase the stored containers into the underground spacing. This encasement of the stored containers inside the tunnels is known as the backfill process. A good backfill process is necessary to stabilize the waste gallery against ground settlements. A numerical model to simulate the backfill process can help to improve and optimize the process by ensuring a homogeneous filling with no air voids and also optimization of the injection positions to achieve a homogeneous filling. The objective of the present work is to develop such a numerical code that can predict the backfill process well and validate the model against the available experiments and analytical solutions. In the present work the rheology of Grout is modelled as a Bingham fluid which is implemented in OpenFOAM - a finite volume-based open source computational fluid

  17. Development and Validation of a Clinically Based Risk Calculator for the Transdiagnostic Prediction of Psychosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutigliano, Grazia; Stahl, Daniel; Davies, Cathy; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Reilly, Thomas; McGuire, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Importance The overall effect of At Risk Mental State (ARMS) services for the detection of individuals who will develop psychosis in secondary mental health care is undetermined. Objective To measure the proportion of individuals with a first episode of psychosis detected by ARMS services in secondary mental health services, and to develop and externally validate a practical web-based individualized risk calculator tool for the transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis in secondary mental health care. Design, Setting, and Participants Clinical register-based cohort study. Patients were drawn from electronic, real-world, real-time clinical records relating to 2008 to 2015 routine secondary mental health care in the South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust. The study included all patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust in the period between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2015. Data analysis began on September 1, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk of development of nonorganic International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision psychotic disorders. Results A total of 91 199 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust were included in the derivation (n = 33 820) or external validation (n = 54 716) data sets. The mean age was 32.97 years, 50.88% were men, and 61.05% were white race/ethnicity. The mean follow-up was 1588 days. The overall 6-year risk of psychosis in secondary mental health care was 3.02 (95% CI, 2.88-3.15), which is higher than the 6-year risk in the local general population (0.62). Compared with the ARMS designation, all of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems

  18. Development and validation of equations utilizing lamb vision system output to predict lamb carcass fabrication yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, B C N; Belk, K E; Scanga, J A; LeValley, S B; Tatum, J D; Smith, G C

    2004-07-01

    This study was performed to validate previous equations and to develop and evaluate new regression equations for predicting lamb carcass fabrication yields using outputs from a lamb vision system-hot carcass component (LVS-HCC) and the lamb vision system-chilled carcass LM imaging component (LVS-CCC). Lamb carcasses (n = 149) were selected after slaughter, imaged hot using the LVS-HCC, and chilled for 24 to 48 h at -3 to 1 degrees C. Chilled carcasses yield grades (YG) were assigned on-line by USDA graders and by expert USDA grading supervisors with unlimited time and access to the carcasses. Before fabrication, carcasses were ribbed between the 12th and 13th ribs and imaged using the LVS-CCC. Carcasses were fabricated into bone-in subprimal/primal cuts. Yields calculated included 1) saleable meat yield (SMY); 2) subprimal yield (SPY); and 3) fat yield (FY). On-line (whole-number) USDA YG accounted for 59, 58, and 64%; expert (whole-number) USDA YG explained 59, 59, and 65%; and expert (nearest-tenth) USDA YG accounted for 60, 60, and 67% of the observed variation in SMY, SPY, and FY, respectively. The best prediction equation developed in this trial using LVS-HCC output and hot carcass weight as independent variables explained 68, 62, and 74% of the variation in SMY, SPY, and FY, respectively. Addition of output from LVS-CCC improved predictive accuracy of the equations; the combined output equations explained 72 and 66% of the variability in SMY and SPY, respectively. Accuracy and repeatability of measurement of LM area made with the LVS-CCC also was assessed, and results suggested that use of LVS-CCC provided reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.59) and highly repeatable (repeatability = 0.98) measurements of LM area. Compared with USDA YG, use of the dual-component lamb vision system to predict cut yields of lamb carcasses improved accuracy and precision, suggesting that this system could have an application as an objective means for pricing carcasses in a value

  19. Mortality after Spontaneous Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Causality and Validation of a Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abulhasan, Yasser B; Alabdulraheem, Najayeb; Simoneau, Gabrielle; Angle, Mark R; Teitelbaum, Jeanne

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate primary causes of death after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and externally validate the HAIR score, a prognostication tool, in a single academic institution. We reviewed all patients with SAH admitted to our neuro-intensive care unit between 2010 and 2016. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. The HAIR score predictors were Hunt and Hess grade at treatment decision, age, intraventricular hemorrhage, and rebleeding within 24 hours. Validation of the HAIR score was characterized with the receiver operating curve, the area under the curve, and a calibration plot. Among 434 patients with SAH, in-hospital mortality was 14.1%. Of the 61 mortalities, 54 (88.5%) had a neurologic cause of death or withdrawal of care and 7 (11.5%) had cardiac death. Median time from SAH to death was 6 days. The main causes of death were effect of the initial hemorrhage (26.2%), rebleeding (23%) and refractory cerebral edema (19.7%). Factors significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in the multivariate analysis were age, Hunt and Hess grade, and intracerebral hemorrhage. Maximum lumen size was also a significant risk factor after aneurysmal SAH. The HAIR score had a satisfactory discriminative ability, with an area under the curve of 0.89. The in-hospital mortality is lower than in previous reports, attesting to the continuing improvement of our institutional SAH care. The major causes are the same as in previous reports. Despite a different therapeutic protocol, the HAIR score showed good discrimination and could be a useful tool for predicting mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Methodology for experimental validation of a CFD model for predicting noise generation in centrifugal compressors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broatch, A.; Galindo, J.; Navarro, R.; García-Tíscar, J.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A DES of a turbocharger compressor working at peak pressure point is performed. • In-duct pressure signals are measured in a steady flow rig with 3-sensor arrays. • Pressure spectra comparison is performed as a validation for the numerical model. • A suitable comparison methodology is developed, relying on pressure decomposition. • Whoosh noise at outlet duct is detected in experimental and numerical spectra. - Abstract: Centrifugal compressors working in the surge side of the map generate a broadband noise in the range of 1–3 kHz, named as whoosh noise. This noise is perceived at strongly downsized engines operating at particular conditions (full load, tip-in and tip-out maneuvers). A 3-dimensional CFD model of a centrifugal compressor is built to analyze fluid phenomena related to whoosh noise. A detached eddy simulation is performed with the compressor operating at the peak pressure point of 160 krpm. A steady flow rig mounted on an anechoic chamber is used to obtain experimental measurements as a means of validation for the numerical model. In-duct pressure signals are obtained in addition to standard averaged global variables. The numerical simulation provides global variables showing excellent agreement with experimental measurements. Pressure spectra comparison is performed to assess noise prediction capability of numerical model. The influence of the type and position of the virtual pressure probes is evaluated. Pressure decomposition is required by the simulations to obtain meaningful spectra. Different techniques for obtaining pressure components are analyzed. At the simulated conditions, a broadband noise in 1–3 kHz frequency band is detected in the experimental measurements. This whoosh noise is also captured by the numerical model

  1. Predictive validity of a brief antiretroviral adherence index: Retrospective cohort analysis under conditions of repetitive administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colwell Bradford

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Newer antiretroviral (ARV agents have improved pharmacokinetics, potency, and tolerability and have enabled the design of regimens with improved virologic outcomes. Successful antiretroviral therapy is dependent on patient adherence. In previous research, we validated a subset of items from the ACTG adherence battery as prognostic of virologic suppression at 6 months and correlated with adherence estimates from the Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS. The objective of the current study was to validate the longitudinal use of the Owen Clinic adherence index in analyses of time to initial virologic suppression and maintenance of suppression. Results 278 patients (naïve n = 168, experienced n = 110 met inclusion criteria. Median [range] time on the first regimen during the study period was 286 (30 – 1221 days. 217 patients (78% achieved an undetectable plasma viral load (pVL at median 63 days. 8.3% (18/217 of patients experienced viral rebound (pVL > 400 after initial suppression. Adherence scores varied from 0 – 25 (mean 1.06, median 0. The lowest detectable adherence score cut point using this instrument was ≥ 5 for both initial suppression and maintenance of suppression. In the final Cox model of time to first undetectable pVL, controlling for prior treatment experience and baseline viral load, the adjusted hazard ratio for time updated adherence score was 0.36score ≥ 5 (95% CI: 0.19–0.69 [reference: score ≥ 5 (0.05–0.66 [reference: Conclusion A brief, longitudinally administered self report adherence instrument predicted both initial virologic suppression and maintenance of suppression in patients using contemporary ARV regimens. The survey can be used for identification of sub-optimal adherence with subsequent appropriate intervention.

  2. The HIrisPlex-S system for eye, hair and skin colour prediction from DNA: Introduction and forensic developmental validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaitanya, Lakshmi; Breslin, Krystal; Zuñiga, Sofia; Wirken, Laura; Pośpiech, Ewelina; Kukla-Bartoszek, Magdalena; Sijen, Titia; Knijff, Peter de; Liu, Fan; Branicki, Wojciech; Kayser, Manfred; Walsh, Susan

    2018-07-01

    Forensic DNA Phenotyping (FDP), i.e. the prediction of human externally visible traits from DNA, has become a fast growing subfield within forensic genetics due to the intelligence information it can provide from DNA traces. FDP outcomes can help focus police investigations in search of unknown perpetrators, who are generally unidentifiable with standard DNA profiling. Therefore, we previously developed and forensically validated the IrisPlex DNA test system for eye colour prediction and the HIrisPlex system for combined eye and hair colour prediction from DNA traces. Here we introduce and forensically validate the HIrisPlex-S DNA test system (S for skin) for the simultaneous prediction of eye, hair, and skin colour from trace DNA. This FDP system consists of two SNaPshot-based multiplex assays targeting a total of 41 SNPs via a novel multiplex assay for 17 skin colour predictive SNPs and the previous HIrisPlex assay for 24 eye and hair colour predictive SNPs, 19 of which also contribute to skin colour prediction. The HIrisPlex-S system further comprises three statistical prediction models, the previously developed IrisPlex model for eye colour prediction based on 6 SNPs, the previous HIrisPlex model for hair colour prediction based on 22 SNPs, and the recently introduced HIrisPlex-S model for skin colour prediction based on 36 SNPs. In the forensic developmental validation testing, the novel 17-plex assay performed in full agreement with the Scientific Working Group on DNA Analysis Methods (SWGDAM) guidelines, as previously shown for the 24-plex assay. Sensitivity testing of the 17-plex assay revealed complete SNP profiles from as little as 63 pg of input DNA, equalling the previously demonstrated sensitivity threshold of the 24-plex HIrisPlex assay. Testing of simulated forensic casework samples such as blood, semen, saliva stains, of inhibited DNA samples, of low quantity touch (trace) DNA samples, and of artificially degraded DNA samples as well as

  3. KAMUTHE video microanalysis system for use in Brazil: translation, cross-cultural adaptation and evidence of validity and reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Schulz Gattino

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background KAMUTHE is a video microanalysis system which observes preverbal communication within the music therapy setting. This system is indicated for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD or multiple disabilities. The purpose of this study was to translate, adapt to Brazilian Portuguese language and analyze some psychometric properties (reliability and validity evidence of KAMUTHE administration in Brazil for individuals with ASD. Participants and procedure Translation, back translation, analysis by judges, and pilot application were performed to obtain evidence of content and face validity. The second part of this study was to administer KAMUTHE in 39 consecutive children with ASD. An individual session of improvisational music therapy was applied to assess the different behaviors included in KAMUTHE. The intra-rater reliability, concurrent validity and convergent validity were analyzed. Results Translation and cross-cultural adaptation were followed and some cultural adaptations were needed. Inter-rater reliability was very good (ICCs 0.95-0.99 for the three child’s behaviors analyzed. Criteria validity with a moderate negative association was found (r = –.38, p = .017 comparing the behavior “Gazes at therapist” and the level of ASD along with the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS. Convergent validity was established between the behavior “Gazes at therapist” and the two nonlinguistic communication scales (social interaction and interests of the Children’s Communication Checklist (CCC with a moderate correlation (r = –.43, p = .005. Conclusions The administration of the KAMUTHE video microanalysis system showed positive results in children with ASD. Further studies are needed to improve the reliability and validity of the instrument in Brazil.

  4. An assessment of the validity of inelastic design analysis methods by comparisons of predictions with test results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corum, J.M.; Clinard, J.A.; Sartory, W.K.

    1976-01-01

    The use of computer programs that employ relatively complex constitutive theories and analysis procedures to perform inelastic design calculations on fast reactor system components introduces questions of validation and acceptance of the analysis results. We may ask ourselves, ''How valid are the answers.'' These questions, in turn, involve the concepts of verification of computer programs as well as qualification of the computer programs and of the underlying constitutive theories and analysis procedures. This paper addresses the latter - the qualification of the analysis methods for inelastic design calculations. Some of the work underway in the United States to provide the necessary information to evaluate inelastic analysis methods and computer programs is described, and typical comparisons of analysis predictions with inelastic structural test results are presented. It is emphasized throughout that rather than asking ourselves how valid, or correct, are the analytical predictions, we might more properly question whether or not the combination of the predictions and the associated high-temperature design criteria leads to an acceptable level of structural integrity. It is believed that in this context the analysis predictions are generally valid, even though exact correlations between predictions and actual behavior are not obtained and cannot be expected. Final judgment, however, must be reserved for the design analyst in each specific case. (author)

  5. External validation of a clinical prediction rule to predict full recovery and ongoing moderate/severe disability following acute whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Carrie; Hendrikz, Joan; Jull, Gwendolen; Elliott, James; Sterling, Michele

    2015-04-01

    Retrospective secondary analysis of data. To investigate the external validity of the whiplash clinical prediction rule (CPR). We recently derived a whiplash CPR to consolidate previously established prognostic factors for poor recovery from a whiplash injury and predicted 2 recovery pathways. Prognostic factors for full recovery were being less than 35 years of age and having an initial Neck Disability Index (NDI) score of 32% or less. Prognostic factors for ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability were being 35 years of age or older, having an initial NDI score of 40% or more, and the presence of hyperarousal symptoms. Validation is required to confirm the reproducibility and accuracy of this CPR. Clinician feedback on the usefulness of the CPR is also important to gauge acceptability. A secondary analysis of data from 101 individuals with acute whiplash-associated disorder who had previously participated in either a randomized controlled clinical trial or prospective cohort study was performed using accuracy statistics. Full recovery was defined as NDI score at 6 months of 10% or less, and ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability were defined as an NDI score at 6 months of 30% or greater. In addition, a small sample of physical therapists completed an anonymous survey on the clinical acceptability and usability of the tool. Results The positive predictive value of ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability was 90.9% in the validation cohort, and the positive predictive value of full recovery was 80.0%. Surveyed physical therapists reported that the whiplash CPR was simple, understandable, would be easy to use, and was an acceptable prognostic tool. External validation of the whiplash CPR confirmed the reproducibility and accuracy of this dual-pathway tool for individuals with acute whiplash-associated disorder. Further research is needed to assess prospective validation, the impact of inclusion on practice, and to examine the efficacy of linking treatment

  6. Validating predictions of evolving porosity and permeability in carbonate reservoir rocks exposed to CO2-brine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M. M.; Hao, Y.; Carroll, S.

    2017-12-01

    Improving our ability to better forecast the extent and impact of changes in porosity and permeability due to CO2-brine-carbonate reservoir interactions should lower uncertainty in long-term geologic CO2 storage capacity estimates. We have developed a continuum-scale reactive transport model that simulates spatial and temporal changes to porosity, permeability, mineralogy, and fluid composition within carbonate rocks exposed to CO2 and brine at storage reservoir conditions. The model relies on two primary parameters to simulate brine-CO2-carbonate mineral reaction: kinetic rate constant(s), kmineral, for carbonate dissolution; and an exponential parameter, n, relating porosity change to resulting permeability. Experimental data collected from fifteen core-flooding experiments conducted on samples from the Weyburn (Saskatchewan, Canada) and Arbuckle (Kansas, USA) carbonate reservoirs were used to calibrate the reactive-transport model and constrain the useful range of k and n values. Here we present the results of our current efforts to validate this model and the use of these parameter values, by comparing predictions of extent and location of dissolution and the evolution of fluid permeability against our results from new core-flood experiments conducted on samples from the Duperow Formation (Montana, USA). Agreement between model predictions and experimental data increase our confidence that these parameter ranges need not be considered site-specific but may be applied (within reason) at various locations and reservoirs. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  7. Performance prediction and validation of equilibrium modeling for gasification of cashew nut shell char

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Venkata Ramanan

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Cashew nut shell, a waste product obtained during deshelling of cashew kernels, had in the past been deemed unfit as a fuel for gasification owing to its high occluded oil content. The oil, a source of natural phenol, oozes upon gasification, thereby clogging the gasifier throat, downstream equipment and associated utilities with oil, resulting in ineffective gasification and premature failure of utilities due to its corrosive characteristics. To overcome this drawback, the cashew shells were de-oiled by charring in closed chambers and were subsequently gasified in an autothermal downdraft gasifier. Equilibrium modeling was carried out to predict the producer gas composition under varying performance influencing parameters, viz., equivalence ratio (ER, reaction temperature (RT and moisture content (MC. The results were compared with the experimental output and are presented in this paper. The model is quite satisfactory with the experimental outcome at the ER applicable to gasification systems, i.e., 0.15 to 0.30. The results show that the mole fraction of (i H2, CO and CH4 decreases while (N2 + H2O and CO2 increases with ER, (ii H2 and CO increases while CH4, (N2 + H2O and CO2 decreases with reaction temperature, (iii H2, CH4, CO2 and (N2 + H2O increases while CO decreases with moisture content. However at an equivalence ratio less than 0.15, the model predicts an unrealistic composition and is observed to be non valid below this ER.

  8. On the Predictability of Computer simulations: Advances in Verification and Validation

    KAUST Repository

    Prudhomme, Serge

    2014-01-06

    We will present recent advances on the topics of Verification and Validation in order to assess the reliability and predictability of computer simulations. The first part of the talk will focus on goal-oriented error estimation for nonlinear boundary-value problems and nonlinear quantities of interest, in which case the error representation consists of two contributions: 1) a first contribution, involving the residual and the solution of the linearized adjoint problem, which quantifies the discretization or modeling error; and 2) a second contribution, combining higher-order terms that describe the linearization error. The linearization error contribution is in general neglected with respect to the discretization or modeling error. However, when nonlinear effects are significant, it is unclear whether ignoring linearization effects may produce poor convergence of the adaptive process. The objective will be to show how both contributions can be estimated and employed in an adaptive scheme that simultaneously controls the two errors in a balanced manner. In the second part of the talk, we will present novel approach for calibration of model parameters. The proposed inverse problem not only involves the minimization of the misfit between experimental observables and their theoretical estimates, but also an objective function that takes into account some design goals on specific design scenarios. The method can be viewed as a regularization approach of the inverse problem, one, however, that best respects some design goals for which mathematical models are intended. The inverse problem is solved by a Bayesian method to account for uncertainties in the data. We will show that it shares the same structure as the deterministic problem that one would obtain by multi-objective optimization theory. The method is illustrated on an example of heat transfer in a two-dimensional fin. The proposed approach has the main benefit that it increases the confidence in predictive

  9. Scale of attitudes toward alcohol - Spanish version: evidences of validity and reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Erika Gisseth León; Vargas, Divane de

    2017-08-03

    validate the Scale of attitudes toward alcohol, alcoholism and individuals with alcohol use disorders in its Spanish version. methodological study, involving 300 Colombian nurses. Adopting the classical theory, confirmatory factor analysis was applied without prior examination, based on the strong historical evidence of the factorial structure of the original scale to determine the construct validity of this Spanish version. To assess the reliability, Cronbach's Alpha and Mc Donalid's Omega coefficients were used. the confirmatory factor analysis indicated the good fit of the scale model in a four-factor distribution, with a cut-off point at 3.2, demonstrating 66.7% of sensitivity. the Scale of attitudes toward alcohol, alcoholism and individuals with alcohol use disorders in Spanish presented robust psychometric qualities, affirming that the instrument possesses a solid factorial structure and reliability and is capable of precisely measuring the nurses' atittudes towards the phenomenon proposed. validar a Escala de atitudes frente ao álcool, ao alcoolismo e a pessoas com transtornos relacionados ao uso do álcool, versão espanhola. estudo metodológico, realizado com 303 enfermeiros colombianos. Seguindo a teoria clássica, foi aplicada a análise fatorial confirmatória sem exploração preliminar, com base na forte evidência histórica da estrutura fatorial do instrumento original para a validação de construto desta versão em espanhol. Para a avaliação da confiabilidade foram utilizados os coeficientes de Alfa de Cronbach e Ômega de Mc Donald. a análise fatorial confirmatória indicou o bom ajuste do modelo da escala na distribuição de quatro fatores, compreendendo 48 itens em sua versão espanhola. Os índices de confiabilidade foram satisfatórios, com ponto de corte observado em 3,2, demonstrando sensibilidade de 66,7%. a Escala de atitudes frente ao álcool, ao alcoolismo e a pessoas com transtornos relacionados ao uso do álcool no idioma

  10. Gene expression signatures predict outcome in non-muscle invasive bladder carcinoma - a multi-center validation study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars Dyrskjøt; Zieger, Karsten; Real, Francisco X.

    2007-01-01

    and carcinoma in situ (CIS) and for predicting disease recurrence and progression. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We analyzed tumors from 404 patients diagnosed with bladder cancer in hospitals in Denmark, Sweden, England, Spain, and France using custom microarrays. Molecular classifications were compared with pathologic....... CONCLUSION: This multicenter validation study confirms in an independent series the clinical utility of molecular classifiers to predict the outcome of patients initially diagnosed with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. This information may be useful to better guide patient treatment....

  11. Proactive, Reactive, and Romantic Relational Aggression in Adulthood: Measurement, Predictive Validity, Gender Differences, and Association with Intermittent Explosive Disorder

    OpenAIRE

    Murray-Close, Dianna; Ostrov, Jamie M.; Nelson, David A.; Crick, Nicki R.; Coccaro, Emil F.

    2009-01-01

    The psychometric properties of a recently introduced adult self-report of relational aggression are presented. Specifically, the predictive utility of proactive and reactive peer-directed relational aggression, as well as romantic relational aggression, are explored in a large (N = 1387) study of adults. The measure had adequate reliability and validity and the subscales demonstrated unique predictive abilities for a number of dependent variables. In particular, reactive but not proactive rel...

  12. Definitions and validation criteria for biomarkers and surrogate endpoints: development and testing of a quantitative hierarchical levels of evidence schema

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassere, Marissa N; Johnson, Kent R; Boers, Maarten

    2007-01-01

    endpoints, and leading indicators, a quantitative surrogate validation schema was developed and subsequently evaluated at a stakeholder workshop. RESULTS: The search identified several classification schema and definitions. Components of these were incorporated into a new quantitative surrogate validation...... level of evidence schema that evaluates biomarkers along 4 domains: Target, Study Design, Statistical Strength, and Penalties. Scores derived from 3 domains the Target that the marker is being substituted for, the Design of the (best) evidence, and the Statistical strength are additive. Penalties...... of the National Institutes of Health definitions of biomarker, surrogate endpoint, and clinical endpoint was useful. CONCLUSION: Further development and application of this schema provides incentives and guidance for effective biomarker and surrogate endpoint research, and more efficient drug discovery...

  13. Comparison of mortality prediction models and validation of SAPS II in critically ill burns patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantet, O; Faouzi, M; Brusselaers, N; Vernay, A; Berger, M M

    2016-06-30

    Specific burn outcome prediction scores such as the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Ryan, Belgian Outcome of Burn Injury (BOBI) and revised Baux scores have been extensively studied. Validation studies of the critical care score SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score) have included burns patients but not addressed them as a cohort. The study aimed at comparing their performance in a Swiss burns intensive care unit (ICU) and to observe whether they were affected by a standardized definition of inhalation injury. We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including all consecutive ICU burn admissions (n=492) between 1996 and 2013: 5 epochs were defined by protocol changes. As required for SAPS II calculation, stays burned (TBSA) and inhalation injury (systematic standardized diagnosis since 2006). Study epochs were compared (χ2 test, ANOVA). Score performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. SAPS II performed well (AUC 0.89), particularly in burns burns <40% TBSA. Ryan and BOBI scores were least accurate, as they heavily weight inhalation injury.

  14. A Validated Analytical Model for Availability Prediction of IPTV Services in VANETs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd E. Wolfinger

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs, besides the original applications typically related to traffic safety, we nowadays can observe an increasing trend toward infotainment applications, such as IPTV services. Quality of experience (QoE, as observed by the end users of IPTV, is highly important to guarantee adequate user acceptance for the service. In IPTV, QoE is mainly determined by the availability of TV channels for the users. This paper presents an efficient and rather generally applicable analytical model that allows one to predict the blocking probability of TV channels, both for channel-switching-induced, as well as for handover-induced blocking events. We present the successful validation of the model by means of simulation, and we introduce a new measure for QoE. Numerous case studies illustrate how the analytical model and our new QoE measure can be applied successfully for the dimensioning of IPTV systems, taking into account the QoE requirements of the IPTV service users in strongly diverse traffic scenarios.

  15. Theory and validation of a liquid radiation filter greenhouse simulation for performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feuermann, D.; Kopel, R.; Zeroni, M.; Levi, S.; Gale, J.

    1997-01-01

    A greenhouse is described which has a selectively absorbing liquid radiation filter (LRF) circulating in double layered cladding. The filter removes much of the near infrared wave band of solar radiation (700 nm) while transmitting most of the photosynthetic radiation (400-700 nm). This greatly reduces the heat input to the greenhouse and, by transferring heat from day to night, facilitates better temperature control. This is particularly important for CO2 fertilization, which requires that the greenhouse should remain closed during daylight hours. A computer simulation model was developed to study the relationship between design parameters of such a LRF greenhouse and its thermal performance under different climatic conditions. The model was based on a small number of governing equations describing the major physical phenomena responsible for the greenhouse climate. Validation of the simulation was performed with data from a 330 m2 LRF greenhouse, operating in the Negev (Israel) desert highlands. The predicted greenhouse temperatures were found to agree with measured values to within one to two degrees Celsius. Performances of a LRF and a conventional greenhouse were compared using the simulation and hourly meteorological data for central Israel. For the summer season of May to October, the number of daylight hours during which the LRF greenhouse could remain closed was larger by about two-thirds than that of the conventional greenhouse

  16. Microcomputer-based tests for repeated-measures: Metric properties and predictive validities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Robert S.; Baltzley, Dennis R.; Dunlap, William P.; Wilkes, Robert L.; Kuntz, Lois-Ann

    1989-01-01

    A menu of psychomotor and mental acuity tests were refined. Field applications of such a battery are, for example, a study of the effects of toxic agents or exotic environments on performance readiness, or the determination of fitness for duty. The key requirement of these tasks is that they be suitable for repeated-measures applications, and so questions of stability and reliability are a continuing, central focus of this work. After the initial (practice) session, seven replications of 14 microcomputer-based performance tests (32 measures) were completed by 37 subjects. Each test in the battery had previously been shown to stabilize in less than five 90-second administrations and to possess retest reliabilities greater than r = 0.707 for three minutes of testing. However, all the tests had never been administered together as a battery and they had never been self-administered. In order to provide predictive validity for intelligence measurement, the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised and the Wonderlic Personnel Test were obtained on the same subjects.

  17. External validation of models predicting the individual risk of metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis from colon and rectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segelman, J; Akre, O; Gustafsson, U O; Bottai, M; Martling, A

    2016-04-01

    To externally validate previously published predictive models of the risk of developing metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) after resection of nonmetastatic colon or rectal cancer and to update the predictive model for colon cancer by adding new prognostic predictors. Data from all patients with Stage I-III colorectal cancer identified from a population-based database in Stockholm between 2008 and 2010 were used. We assessed the concordance between the predicted and observed probabilities of PC and utilized proportional-hazard regression to update the predictive model for colon cancer. When applied to the new validation dataset (n = 2011), the colon and rectal cancer risk-score models predicted metachronous PC with a concordance index of 79% and 67%, respectively. After adding the subclasses of pT3 and pT4 stage and mucinous tumour to the colon cancer model, the concordance index increased to 82%. In validation of external and recent cohorts, the predictive accuracy was strong in colon cancer and moderate in rectal cancer patients. The model can be used to identify high-risk patients for planned second-look laparoscopy/laparotomy for possible subsequent cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  18. Development and validation of prediction models for endometrial cancer in postmenopausal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Alyssa Sze-Wai; Cheung, Chun Wai; Fung, Linda Wen-Ying; Lao, Terence Tzu-Hsi; Mol, Ben Willem J; Sahota, Daljit Singh

    2016-08-01

    To develop and assess the accuracy of risk prediction models to diagnose endometrial cancer in women having postmenopausal bleeding (PMB). A retrospective cohort study of 4383 women in a One-stop PMB clinic from a university teaching hospital in Hong Kong. Clinical risk factors, transvaginal ultrasonic measurement of endometrial thickness (ET) and endometrial histology were obtained from consecutive women between 2002 and 2013. Two models to predict risk of endometrial cancer were developed and assessed, one based on patient characteristics alone and a second incorporated ET with patient characteristics. Endometrial histology was used as the reference standard. The split-sample internal validation and bootstrapping technique were adopted. The optimal threshold for prediction of endometrial cancer by the final models was determined using a receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve and Youden Index. The diagnostic gain was compared to a reference strategy of measuring ET only by comparing the AUC using the Delong test. Out of 4383 women with PMB, 168 (3.8%) were diagnosed with endometrial cancer. ET alone had an area under curve (AUC) of 0.92 (95% confidence intervals [CIs] 0.89-0.94). In the patient characteristics only model, independent predictors of cancer were age at presentation, age at menopause, body mass index, nulliparity and recurrent vaginal bleeding. The AUC and Youdens Index of the patient characteristic only model were respectively 0.73 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) and 0.72 (Sensitivity=66.5%; Specificity=68.9%; +ve LR=2.14; -ve LR=0.49). ET, age at presentation, nulliparity and recurrent vaginal bleeding were independent predictors in the patient characteristics plus ET model. The AUC and Youdens Index of the patient characteristic plus ET model where respectively 0.92 (95% CI 0.88-0.96) and 0.71 (Sensitivity=82.7%; Specificity=88.3%; +ve LR=6.38; -ve LR=0.2). Comparison of AUC indicated that a history alone model was inferior to a model using ET alone

  19. Musical Preferences Predict Personality: Evidence From Active Listening and Facebook Likes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nave, Gideon; Minxha, Juri; Greenberg, David M; Kosinski, Michal; Stillwell, David; Rentfrow, Jason

    2018-03-01

    Research over the past decade has shown that various personality traits are communicated through musical preferences. One limitation of that research is external validity, as most studies have assessed individual differences in musical preferences using self-reports of music-genre preferences. Are personality traits communicated through behavioral manifestations of musical preferences? We addressed this question in two large-scale online studies with demographically diverse populations. Study 1 ( N = 22,252) shows that reactions to unfamiliar musical excerpts predicted individual differences in personality-most notably, openness and extraversion-above and beyond demographic characteristics. Moreover, these personality traits were differentially associated with particular music-preference dimensions. The results from Study 2 ( N = 21,929) replicated and extended these findings by showing that an active measure of naturally occurring behavior, Facebook Likes for musical artists, also predicted individual differences in personality. In general, our findings establish the robustness and external validity of the links between musical preferences and personality.

  20. Reliability and Validity Evidence of Scores on the French Version of the Questionnaire about Interpersonal Difficulties for Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Delgado

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the reliability and validity evidence drawn from the scores of the French version of the Questionnaire about Interpersonal Difficulties for Adolescents (QIDA in a sample of 957 adolescents (48.5% boys ranging in age from 11 to 18 years ('M' = 14.48, 'SD' = 1.85. A principal axis factoring (PAF and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA were performed to determine the fit of the factor structure of scores on the QIDA. PAF and CFA replicated the previously identified correlated five-factor structure of the QIDA: Assertiveness, Heterosexual Relationships, Public Speaking, Family Relationships, and Close Friendships. The QIDA yielded acceptable reliability scores for French adolescents. Validity evidence of QIDA was also established through correlations with scores on the School Anxiety Inventory and the Social Anxiety Scale for Adolescents. Most of the correlations were positive and exceeded the established criteria of statistical significance, but the magnitude of these varied according to the scales of the QIDA. Results supported the reliability and validity evidence drawn from the scores of the French version of the QIDA.

  1. Definitions and validation criteria for biomarkers and surrogate endpoints: development and testing of a quantitative hierarchical levels of evidence schema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassere, Marissa N; Johnson, Kent R; Boers, Maarten; Tugwell, Peter; Brooks, Peter; Simon, Lee; Strand, Vibeke; Conaghan, Philip G; Ostergaard, Mikkel; Maksymowych, Walter P; Landewe, Robert; Bresnihan, Barry; Tak, Paul-Peter; Wakefield, Richard; Mease, Philip; Bingham, Clifton O; Hughes, Michael; Altman, Doug; Buyse, Marc; Galbraith, Sally; Wells, George

    2007-03-01

    There are clear advantages to using biomarkers and surrogate endpoints, but concerns about clinical and statistical validity and systematic methods to evaluate these aspects hinder their efficient application. Our objective was to review the literature on biomarkers and surrogates to develop a hierarchical schema that systematically evaluates and ranks the surrogacy status of biomarkers and surrogates; and to obtain feedback from stakeholders. After a systematic search of Medline and Embase on biomarkers, surrogate (outcomes, endpoints, markers, indicators), intermediate endpoints, and leading indicators, a quantitative surrogate validation schema was developed and subsequently evaluated at a stakeholder workshop. The search identified several classification schema and definitions. Components of these were incorporated into a new quantitative surrogate validation level of evidence schema that evaluates biomarkers along 4 domains: Target, Study Design, Statistical Strength, and Penalties. Scores derived from 3 domains the Target that the marker is being substituted for, the Design of the (best) evidence, and the Statistical strength are additive. Penalties are then applied if there is serious counterevidence. A total score (0 to 15) determines the level of evidence, with Level 1 the strongest and Level 5 the weakest. It was proposed that the term "surrogate" be restricted to markers attaining Levels 1 or 2 only. Most stakeholders agreed that this operationalization of the National Institutes of Health definitions of biomarker, surrogate endpoint, and clinical endpoint was useful. Further development and application of this schema provides incentives and guidance for effective biomarker and surrogate endpoint research, and more efficient drug discovery, development, and approval.

  2. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petersen, Japke F.; Stuiver, Martijn M.; Timmermans, Adriana J.; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P.; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T.; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W. M.

    2017-01-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442

  3. Validation of Clinical Prediction Models: Theory and Applications in Testicular Germ Cell Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractlinical prediction models combine patient characteristics to predict the probability of having a certain disease (diagnosis) or the probability that a particular disease state will occur (prognosis). The predicted probability of the diagnostic or prognostic outcome may assist the

  4. Development, external validation and clinical usefulness of a practical prediction model for radiation-induced dysphagia in lung cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dehing-Oberije, Cary; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Petit, Steven; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; Vandecasteele, Katrien; De Neve, Wilfried; Dingemans, Anne Marie C.; El Naqa, Issam; Deasy, Joseph; Bradley, Jeff; Huang, Ellen; Lambin, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: Acute dysphagia is a distressing dose-limiting toxicity occurring frequently during concurrent chemo-radiation or high-dose radiotherapy for lung cancer. It can lead to treatment interruptions and thus jeopardize survival. Although a number of predictive factors have been identified, it is still not clear how these could offer assistance for treatment decision making in daily clinical practice. Therefore, we have developed and validated a nomogram to predict this side-effect. In addition, clinical usefulness was assessed by comparing model predictions to physicians' predictions. Materials and methods: Clinical data from 469 inoperable lung cancer patients, treated with curative intent, were collected prospectively. A prediction model for acute radiation-induced dysphagia was developed. Model performance was evaluated by the c-statistic and assessed using bootstrapping as well as two external datasets. In addition, a prospective study was conducted comparing model to physicians' predictions in 138 patients. Results: The final multivariate model consisted of age, gender, WHO performance status, mean esophageal dose (MED), maximum esophageal dose (MAXED) and overall treatment time (OTT). The c-statistic, assessed by bootstrapping, was 0.77. External validation yielded an AUC of 0.94 on the Ghent data and 0.77 on the Washington University St. Louis data for dysphagia ≥ grade 3. Comparing model predictions to the physicians' predictions resulted in an AUC of 0.75 versus 0.53, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed model performed well was successfully validated and demonstrated the ability to predict acute severe dysphagia remarkably better than the physicians. Therefore, this model could be used in clinical practice to identify patients at high or low risk.

  5. A systematic approach to obtain validated Partial Least Square models for predicting lipoprotein subclasses from serum NMR spectra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mihaleva, V.V.; van Schalkwijk, D.B.; de Graaf, A.A.; van Duynhoven, J.; van Dorsten, F.A.; Vervoort, J.; Smilde, A.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Jacobs, D.M.

    2014-01-01

    A systematic approach is described for building validated PLS models that predict cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations in lipoprotein subclasses in fasting serum from a normolipidemic, healthy population. The PLS models were built on diffusion-edited 1H NMR spectra and calibrated on

  6. A systematic approach to obtain validated partial least square models for predicting lipoprotein subclasses from serum NMR spectra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mihaleva, V.V.; Schalkwijk, van D.B.; Graaf, de A.A.; Duynhoven, van J.P.M.; Dorsten, van F.A.; Vervoort, J.J.M.; Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Jacobs, D.M.

    2014-01-01

    A systematic approach is described for building validated PLS models that predict cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations in lipoprotein subclasses in fasting serum from a normolipidemic, healthy population. The PLS models were built on diffusion-edited (1)H NMR spectra and calibrated on

  7. A systematic approach to obtain validated partial least square models for predicting lipoprotein subclasses from serum nmr spectra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mihaleva, V.V.; Schalkwijk, D.B. van; Graaf, A.A. de; Duynhoven, J. van; Dorsten, F.A. van; Vervoort, J.; Smilde, A.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Jacobs, D.M.

    2014-01-01

    A systematic approach is described for building validated PLS models that predict cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations in lipoprotein subclasses in fasting serum from a normolipidemic, healthy population. The PLS models were built on diffusion-edited 1H NMR spectra and calibrated on

  8. Differential Predictive Validity of High School GPA and College Entrance Test Scores for University Students in Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hattami, Abdulghani Ali Dawod

    2012-01-01

    High school grade point average and college entrance test scores are two admission criteria that are currently used by most colleges in Yemen to select their prospective students. Given their widespread use, it is important to investigate their predictive validity to ensure the accuracy of the admission decisions in these institutions. This study…

  9. Using multiple and specific criteria to assess the predictive validity of the Big Five personality factors on academic performance.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappe, F.R.; van der Flier, H.

    2010-01-01

    Multiple and specific academic performance criteria were used to examine the predictive validity of the Big Five personality traits. One hundred thirty-three students in a college of higher learning in The Netherlands participated in a naturally occurring field study. The results of the NEO-FFI were

  10. Validation of the ASSERT subchannel code for prediction of CHF in standard and non-standard CANDU bundle geometries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiteley, J.C.; Carver, M.B.; Zhou, Q.N.

    1993-01-01

    The ASSERT code has been developed to address the three-dimensional computation of flow and phase distribution and fuel element surface temperatures within the horizontal subchannels of CANDU PHWR fuel channels, and to provide a detailed prediction of critical heat flux distribution throughout the bundle. The ASSERT subchannel code has been validated extensively against a wide repertoire of experiments; its combination of three-dimensional prediction of local flow conditions with a comprehensive method of predicting critical heat flux (CHF) at these local conditions makes it a unique tool for predicting CHF for situations outside the existing experimental data base. In particular, ASSERT is the only tool available to systematically investigate CHF under conditions of local geometric variations, such as pressure tube creep and fuel element strain. This paper discusses the numerical methodology used in ASSERT, the constitutive relationships incorporated, and the CHF assessment methodology. The evolutionary validation plan is discussed, and early validation exercises are summarized. The paper concentrates, however, on more recent validation exercises in standard and non-standard geometries. 28 refs., 12 figs

  11. Validation of the ASSERT subchannel code: Prediction of critical heat flux in standard and nonstandard CANDU bundle geometries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carver, M.B.; Kiteley, J.C.; Zhou, R.Q.N.; Junop, S.V.; Rowe, D.S.

    1995-01-01

    The ASSERT code has been developed to address the three-dimensional computation of flow and phase distribution and fuel element surface temperatures within the horizontal subchannels of Canada uranium deuterium (CANDU) pressurized heavy water reactor fuel channels and to provide a detailed prediction of critical heat flux (CHF) distribution throughout the bundle. The ASSERT subchannel code has been validated extensively against a wide repertoire of experiments; its combination of three-dimensional prediction of local flow conditions with a comprehensive method of predicting CHF at these local conditions makes it a unique tool for predicting CHF for situations outside the existing experimental database. In particular, ASSERT is an appropriate tool to systematically investigate CHF under conditions of local geometric variations, such as pressure tube creep and fuel element strain. The numerical methodology used in ASSERT, the constitutive relationships incorporated, and the CHF assessment methodology are discussed. The evolutionary validation plan is also discussed and early validation exercises are summarized. More recent validation exercises in standard and nonstandard geometries are emphasized

  12. On various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models with applications in virtual screening and focused library design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Kunal; Mitra, Indrani

    2011-07-01

    Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) have important applications in drug discovery research, environmental fate modeling, property prediction, etc. Validation has been recognized as a very important step for QSAR model development. As one of the important objectives of QSAR modeling is to predict activity/property/toxicity of new chemicals falling within the domain of applicability of the developed models and QSARs are being used for regulatory decisions, checking reliability of the models and confidence of their predictions is a very important aspect, which can be judged during the validation process. One prime application of a statistically significant QSAR model is virtual screening for molecules with improved potency based on the pharmacophoric features and the descriptors appearing in the QSAR model. Validated QSAR models may also be utilized for design of focused libraries which may be subsequently screened for the selection of hits. The present review focuses on various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models together with an overview of the application of QSAR models in the fields of virtual screening and focused library design for diverse series of compounds with citation of some recent examples.

  13. Prognosis of patients with nonspecific neck pain: development and external validation of a prediction rule for persistence of complaints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellingerhout, J.M.; Heijmans, M.W.; Verhagen, A.P.; Lewis, M.; de Vet, H.C.W.; Koes, B.W.

    2010-01-01

    Study Design.: Reanalysis of data from 3 randomized controlled trials. Objective.: Development and validation of a prediction rule that estimates the probability of complaints persisting for at least 6 months in patients presenting with nonspecific neck pain in primary care. Sumary of Background

  14. Validity of the MicroDYN Approach: Complex Problem Solving Predicts School Grades beyond Working Memory Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweizer, Fabian; Wustenberg, Sascha; Greiff, Samuel

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the validity of the complex problem solving (CPS) test MicroDYN by investigating a) the relation between its dimensions--rule identification (exploration strategy), rule knowledge (acquired knowledge), rule application (control performance)--and working memory capacity (WMC), and b) whether CPS predicts school grades in…

  15. A Cross-Cultural Test of Sex Bias in the Predictive Validity of Scholastic Aptitude Examinations: Some Israeli Findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeidner, Moshe

    1987-01-01

    This study examined the cross-cultural validity of the sex bias contention with respect to standardized aptitude testing, used for academic prediction purposes in Israel. Analyses were based on the grade point average and scores of 1778 Jewish and 1017 Arab students who were administered standardized college entrance test batteries. (Author/LMO)

  16. Cross-National Validation of Prognostic Models Predicting Sickness Absence and the Added Value of Work Environment Variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne A. M.; Stapelfeldt, Christina M.; Heymans, Martijn W.; van Rhenen, Willem; Labriola, Merete; Nielsen, Claus V.; Bultmann, Ute; Jensen, Chris

    Purpose To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models' risk discrimination was also investigated. Methods 2,562 municipal eldercare

  17. Cross-National Validation of Prognostic Models Predicting Sickness Absence and the Added Value of Work Environment Variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.M.; Stapelfeldt, C.M.; Heijmans, M.W.; van Rhenen, W.; Labriola, M.; Nielsen, C.V.; Bultmann, U.; Jensen, C.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models’ risk discrimination was also investigated. Methods 2,562 municipal eldercare

  18. Determining the validity of exposure models for environmental epidemiology : predicting electromagnetic fields from mobile phone base stations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beekhuizen, Johan|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/34472641X

    2014-01-01

    One of the key challenges in environmental epidemiology is the exposure assessment of large populations. Spatial exposure models have been developed that predict exposure to the pollutant of interest for large study sizes. However, the validity of these exposure models is often unknown. In this

  19. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

  20. Predicting asthma in preschool children with asthma-like symptoms : Validating and updating the PIAMA risk score

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hafkamp-de Groen, Esther; Lingsma, Hester F.; Caudri, Daan; Levie, Deborah; Wijga, Alet; Koppelman, Gerard H.; Duijts, Liesbeth; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Smit, Henriette A.; Kerkhof, Marjan; Moll, Henriette A.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; de Jongste, Johan C.; Raat, Hein

    2013-01-01

    Background: The Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA) risk score predicts the probability of having asthma at school age among preschool children with suggestive symptoms. Objective: We sought to externally validate the PIAMA risk score at different ages and in ethnic and

  1. Incremental Criterion Validity of the WJ-III COG Clinical Clusters: Marginal Predictive Effects beyond the General Factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, Ryan J.

    2015-01-01

    The current study examined the incremental validity of the clinical clusters from the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Cognitive Abilities (WJ-III COG) for predicting scores on the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Achievement (WJ-III ACH). All participants were children and adolescents (N = 4,722) drawn from the nationally representative WJ-III…

  2. Predictive modeling of infrared radiative heating in tomato dry-peeling process: Part II. Model validation and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    A predictive mathematical model was developed to simulate heat transfer in a tomato undergoing double sided infrared (IR) heating in a dry-peeling process. The aims of this study were to validate the developed model using experimental data and to investigate different engineering parameters that mos...

  3. Characterization and validation of an in silico toxicology model to predict the mutagenic potential of drug impurities*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valerio, Luis G., E-mail: luis.valerio@fda.hhs.gov [Science and Research Staff, Office of Pharmaceutical Science, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 10903 New Hampshire Avenue, Silver Spring, MD 20993–0002 (United States); Cross, Kevin P. [Leadscope, Inc., 1393 Dublin Road, Columbus, OH, 43215–1084 (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Control and minimization of human exposure to potential genotoxic impurities found in drug substances and products is an important part of preclinical safety assessments of new drug products. The FDA's 2008 draft guidance on genotoxic and carcinogenic impurities in drug substances and products allows use of computational quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSAR) to identify structural alerts for known and expected impurities present at levels below qualified thresholds. This study provides the information necessary to establish the practical use of a new in silico toxicology model for predicting Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of drug impurities and other chemicals. We describe the model's chemical content and toxicity fingerprint in terms of compound space, molecular and structural toxicophores, and have rigorously tested its predictive power using both cross-validation and external validation experiments, as well as case studies. Consistent with desired regulatory use, the model performs with high sensitivity (81%) and high negative predictivity (81%) based on external validation with 2368 compounds foreign to the model and having known mutagenicity. A database of drug impurities was created from proprietary FDA submissions and the public literature which found significant overlap between the structural features of drug impurities and training set chemicals in the QSAR model. Overall, the model's predictive performance was found to be acceptable for screening drug impurities for Salmonella mutagenicity. -- Highlights: ► We characterize a new in silico model to predict mutagenicity of drug impurities. ► The model predicts Salmonella mutagenicity and will be useful for safety assessment. ► We examine toxicity fingerprints and toxicophores of this Ames assay model. ► We compare these attributes to those found in drug impurities known to FDA/CDER. ► We validate the model and find it has a desired predictive

  4. Characterization and validation of an in silico toxicology model to predict the mutagenic potential of drug impurities*

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valerio, Luis G.; Cross, Kevin P.

    2012-01-01

    Control and minimization of human exposure to potential genotoxic impurities found in drug substances and products is an important part of preclinical safety assessments of new drug products. The FDA's 2008 draft guidance on genotoxic and carcinogenic impurities in drug substances and products allows use of computational quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSAR) to identify structural alerts for known and expected impurities present at levels below qualified thresholds. This study provides the information necessary to establish the practical use of a new in silico toxicology model for predicting Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of drug impurities and other chemicals. We describe the model's chemical content and toxicity fingerprint in terms of compound space, molecular and structural toxicophores, and have rigorously tested its predictive power using both cross-validation and external validation experiments, as well as case studies. Consistent with desired regulatory use, the model performs with high sensitivity (81%) and high negative predictivity (81%) based on external validation with 2368 compounds foreign to the model and having known mutagenicity. A database of drug impurities was created from proprietary FDA submissions and the public literature which found significant overlap between the structural features of drug impurities and training set chemicals in the QSAR model. Overall, the model's predictive performance was found to be acceptable for screening drug impurities for Salmonella mutagenicity. -- Highlights: ► We characterize a new in silico model to predict mutagenicity of drug impurities. ► The model predicts Salmonella mutagenicity and will be useful for safety assessment. ► We examine toxicity fingerprints and toxicophores of this Ames assay model. ► We compare these attributes to those found in drug impurities known to FDA/CDER. ► We validate the model and find it has a desired predictive performance.

  5. The metabolic syndrome: validity and utility of clinical definitions for cardiovascular disease and diabetes risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Adrian

    2010-02-01

    The purpose of clinical definitions of the metabolic syndrome is frequently misunderstood. While the metabolic syndrome as a physiological process describes a clustering of numerous age-related metabolic abnormalities that together increase the risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, clinical definitions include obesity which is thought to be a cause rather than a consequence of metabolic disturbance, and several elements that are routinely measured in clinical practice, including high blood pressure, high blood glucose and dyslipidaemia. Obesity is frequently a central player in the development of the metabolic syndrome and should be considered a key component of clinical definitions. Previous clinical definitions have differed in the priority given to obesity. Perhaps more importantly than its role in a clinical definition, however, is obesity in isolation before the hallmarks of metabolic dysfunction that typify the syndrome have developed. This should be treated seriously as an opportunity to prevent the consequences of the global diabetes epidemic now apparent. Clinical definitions were designed to identify a population at high lifetime CVD and type 2 diabetes risk, but in the absence of several major risk factors for each condition, are not optimal risk prediction devices for either. Despite this, the metabolic syndrome has several properties that make it a useful construct, in conjunction with short-term risk prediction algorithms and sound clinical judgement, for the identification of those at high lifetime risk of CVD and diabetes. A recently published consensus definition provides some much needed clarity about what a clinical definition entails. Even this, however, remains a work in progress until more evidence becomes available, particularly in the area of ethnicity-specific waist cut-points. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Validating Whole-Airway CFD Predictions of DPI Aerosol Deposition at Multiple Flow Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longest, P Worth; Tian, Geng; Khajeh-Hosseini-Dalasm, Navvab; Hindle, Michael

    2016-12-01

    The objective of this study was to compare aerosol deposition predictions of a new whole-airway CFD model with available in vivo data for a dry powder inhaler (DPI) considered across multiple inhalation waveforms, which affect both the particle size distribution (PSD) and particle deposition. The Novolizer DPI with a budesonide formulation was selected based on the availability of 2D gamma scintigraphy data in humans for three different well-defined inhalation waveforms. Initial in vitro cascade impaction experiments were conducted at multiple constant (square-wave) particle sizing flow rates to characterize PSDs. The whole-airway CFD modeling approach implemented the experimentally determined PSDs at the point of aerosol formation in the inhaler. Complete characteristic airway geometries for an adult were evaluated through the lobar bronchi, followed by stochastic individual pathway (SIP) approximations through the tracheobronchial region and new acinar moving wall models of the alveolar region. It was determined that the PSD used for each inhalation waveform should be based on a constant particle sizing flow rate equal to the average of the inhalation waveform's peak inspiratory flow rate (PIFR) and mean flow rate [i.e., AVG(PIFR, Mean)]. Using this technique, agreement with the in vivo data was acceptable with <15% relative differences averaged across the three regions considered for all inhalation waveforms. Defining a peripheral to central deposition ratio (P/C) based on alveolar and tracheobronchial compartments, respectively, large flow-rate-dependent differences were observed, which were not evident in the original 2D in vivo data. The agreement between the CFD predictions and in vivo data was dependent on accurate initial estimates of the PSD, emphasizing the need for a combination in vitro-in silico approach. Furthermore, use of the AVG(PIFR, Mean) value was identified as a potentially useful method for characterizing a DPI aerosol at a constant flow rate.

  7. Prediction of higher cost of antiretroviral therapy (ART) according to clinical complexity. A validated clinical index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, Cesar; Pérez, Inaki; Podzamczer, Daniel; Llibre, Josep Maria; Domingo, Pere; González-García, Juan; Puig, Inma; Ayala, Pilar; Martín, Mayte; Trilla, Antoni; Lázaro, Pablo; Gatell, Josep Maria

    2016-03-01

    The financing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is generally determined by the cost incurred in the previous year, the number of patients on treatment, and the evidence-based recommendations, but not the clinical characteristics of the population. To establish a score relating the cost of ART and patient clinical complexity in order to understand the costing differences between hospitals in the region that could be explained by the clinical complexity of their population. Retrospective analysis of patients receiving ART in a tertiary hospital between 2009 and 2011. Factors potentially associated with a higher cost of ART were assessed by bivariate and multivariate analysis. Two predictive models of "high-cost" were developed. The normalized estimated (adjusted for the complexity scores) costs were calculated and compared with the normalized real costs. In the Hospital Index, 631 (16.8%) of the 3758 patients receiving ART were responsible for a "high-cost" subgroup, defined as the highest 25% of spending on ART. Baseline variables that were significant predictors of high cost in the Clinic-B model in the multivariate analysis were: route of transmission of HIV, AIDS criteria, Spanish nationality, year of initiation of ART, CD4+ lymphocyte count nadir, and number of hospital admissions. The Clinic-B score ranged from 0 to 13, and the mean value (5.97) was lower than the overall mean value of the four hospitals (6.16). The clinical complexity of the HIV patient influences the cost of ART. The Clinic-B and Clinic-BF scores predicted patients with high cost of ART and could be used to compare and allocate costs corrected for the patient clinical complexity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  8. Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  9. Validation of an instrument to assess evidence-based practice knowledge, attitudes, access, and confidence in the dental environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricson, William D; Rugh, John D; Hatch, John P; Stark, Debra L; Deahl, Thomas; Wallmann, Elizabeth R

    2011-02-01

    This article reports the validation of an assessment instrument designed to measure the outcomes of training in evidence-based practice (EBP) in the context of dentistry. Four EBP dimensions are measured by this instrument: 1) understanding of EBP concepts, 2) attitudes about EBP, 3) evidence-accessing methods, and 4) confidence in critical appraisal. The instrument-the Knowledge, Attitudes, Access, and Confidence Evaluation (KACE)-has four scales, with a total of thirty-five items: EBP knowledge (ten items), EBP attitudes (ten), accessing evidence (nine), and confidence (six). Four elements of validity were assessed: consistency of items within the KACE scales (extent to which items within a scale measure the same dimension), discrimination (capacity to detect differences between individuals with different training or experience), responsiveness (capacity to detect the effects of education on trainees), and test-retest reliability. Internal consistency of scales was assessed by analyzing responses of second-year dental students, dental residents, and dental faculty members using Cronbach coefficient alpha, a statistical measure of reliability. Discriminative validity was assessed by comparing KACE scores for the three groups. Responsiveness was assessed by comparing pre- and post-training responses for dental students and residents. To measure test-retest reliability, the full KACE was completed twice by a class of freshman dental students seventeen days apart, and the knowledge scale was completed twice by sixteen faculty members fourteen days apart. Item-to-scale consistency ranged from 0.21 to 0.78 for knowledge, 0.57 to 0.83 for attitude, 0.70 to 0.84 for accessing evidence, and 0.87 to 0.94 for confidence. For discrimination, ANOVA and post hoc testing by the Tukey-Kramer method revealed significant score differences among students, residents, and faculty members consistent with education and experience levels. For responsiveness to training, dental students

  10. Implementing assessments of robot-assisted technical skill in urological education: a systematic review and synthesis of the validity evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldenberg, Mitchell G; Lee, Jason Y; Kwong, Jethro C C; Grantcharov, Teodor P; Costello, Anthony

    2018-03-31

    To systematically review and synthesise the validity evidence supporting intraoperative and simulation-based assessments of technical skill in urological robot-assisted surgery (RAS), and make evidence-based recommendations for the implementation of these assessments in urological training. A literature search of the Medline, PsycINFO and Embase databases was performed. Articles using technical skill and simulation-based assessments in RAS were abstracted. Only studies involving urology trainees or faculty were included in the final analysis. Multiple tools for the assessment of technical robotic skill have been published, with mixed sources of validity evidence to support their use. These evaluations have been used in both the ex vivo and in vivo settings. Performance evaluations range from global rating scales to psychometrics, and assessments are carried out through automation, expert analysts, and crowdsourcing. There have been rapid expansions in approaches to RAS technical skills assessment, both in simulated and clinical settings. Alternative approaches to assessment in RAS, such as crowdsourcing and psychometrics, remain under investigation. Evidence to support the use of these metrics in high-stakes decisions is likely insufficient at present. © 2018 The Authors BJU International © 2018 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Predicting Environmental Suitability for a Rare and Threatened Species (Lao Newt, Laotriton laoensis) Using Validated Species Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunco, Amanda J.; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Sivongxay, Niane; Stuart, Bryan L.

    2013-01-01

    The Lao newt (Laotriton laoensis) is a recently described species currently known only from northern Laos. Little is known about the species, but it is threatened as a result of overharvesting. We integrated field survey results with climate and altitude data to predict the geographic distribution of this species using the niche modeling program Maxent, and we validated these predictions by using interviews with local residents to confirm model predictions of presence and absence. The results of the validated Maxent models were then used to characterize the environmental conditions of areas predicted suitable for L. laoensis. Finally, we overlaid the resulting model with a map of current national protected areas in Laos to determine whether or not any land predicted to be suitable for this species is coincident with a national protected area. We found that both area under the curve (AUC) values and interview data provided strong support for the predictive power of these models, and we suggest that interview data could be used more widely in species distribution niche modeling. Our results further indicated that this species is mostly likely geographically restricted to high altitude regions (i.e., over 1,000 m elevation) in northern Laos and that only a minute fraction of suitable habitat is currently protected. This work thus emphasizes that increased protection efforts, including listing this species as endangered and the establishment of protected areas in the region predicted to be suitable for L. laoensis, are urgently needed. PMID:23555808

  12. Tone Noise Predictions for a Spacecraft Cabin Ventilation Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow and the Challenges of Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, L. Danielle; Shook, Tony D.; Astler, Douglas T.; Bittinger, Samantha A.

    2012-01-01

    A fan tone noise prediction code has been developed at NASA Glenn Research Center that is capable of estimating duct mode sound power levels for a fan ingesting distorted inflow. This code was used to predict the circumferential and radial mode sound power levels in the inlet and exhaust duct of an axial spacecraft cabin ventilation fan. Noise predictions at fan design rotational speed were generated. Three fan inflow conditions were studied: an undistorted inflow, a circumferentially symmetric inflow distortion pattern (cylindrical rods inserted radially into the flowpath at 15deg, 135deg, and 255deg), and a circumferentially asymmetric inflow distortion pattern (rods located at 15deg, 52deg and 173deg). Noise predictions indicate that tones are produced for the distorted inflow cases that are not present when the fan operates with an undistorted inflow. Experimental data are needed to validate these acoustic predictions, as well as the aerodynamic performance predictions. Given the aerodynamic design of the spacecraft cabin ventilation fan, a mechanical and electrical conceptual design study was conducted. Design features of a fan suitable for obtaining detailed acoustic and aerodynamic measurements needed to validate predictions are discussed.

  13. Reliability and preliminary evidence of validity of a Farsi version of the depression anxiety stress scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayani, Ali Asghar

    2010-08-01

    The internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of the Farsi version of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales were examined, with a sample of 306 undergraduate students (123 men, 183 women) ranging from 18 to 51 years of age (M age = 25.4, SD = 6.1). Participants completed the Satisfaction with Life Scale, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale, and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales. The findings confirmed the preliminary reliabilities and preliminary construct validity of the Farsi translation of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales.

  14. Migrants, health, and happiness: Evidence that health assessments travel with migrants and predict well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ljunge, Martin

    2016-09-01

    Health assessments correlate with health outcomes and subjective well-being. Immigrants offer an opportunity to study persistent social influences on health where the social conditions are not endogenous to individual outcomes. This approach provides a clear direction of causality from social conditions to health, and in a second stage to well-being. Natives and immigrants from across the world residing in 30 European countries are studied using survey data. The paper applies within country analysis using both linear regressions and two stage least squares. Natives' and immigrants' individual characteristics have similar predictive power for health, except Muslim immigrants who experience a sizeable health penalty. Average health reports in the immigrant's birth country have a significant association with the immigrant's current health. Almost a quarter of the birth country health variation is brought by the immigrants, while conditioning on socioeconomic characteristics. There is no evidence of the birth country predictive power declining neither as the immigrant spends more time in the residence country nor over the life course. The second stage estimates indicate that a one standard deviation improvement in health predicts higher happiness by 1.72 point or 0.82 of a standard deviation, more than four times the happiness difference of changing employment status from unemployed to employed. Studying life satisfaction yields similar results. Health improvements predict substantial increases in individual happiness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Validation of the ureteral diameter ratio for predicting early spontaneous resolution of primary vesicoureteral reflux.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arlen, Angela M; Kirsch, Andrew J; Leong, Traci; Cooper, Christopher S

    2017-08-01

    Management of primary vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) remains controversial, and reflux grade currently constitutes an important prognostic factor. Previous reports have demonstrated that distal ureteral diameter ratio (UDR) may be more predictive of outcome than vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) grade. We performed an external validation study in young children, evaluating early spontaneous resolution rates relative to reflux grade and UDR. Voiding cystourethrograms (VCUGs) were reviewed. UDR was computed by measuring largest ureteral diameter within the pelvis and dividing by the distance between the L1 and L3 vertebral bodies (Figure). VUR grade and UDR were tested in univariate and multivariable analyses. Primary outcome was status of VUR at last clinical follow-up (i.e. resolution, persistence, or surgical intervention). Demographics, VUR timing, laterality, and imaging indication were also assessed. One-hundred and forty-seven children (98 girls, 49 boys) were diagnosed with primary VUR at a mean age of 5.5 ± 4.7 months. Sixty-seven (45.6%) resolved spontaneously, 55 (37.4%) had persistent disease, and 25 (17%) were surgically corrected. Patients who spontaneously resolved had significantly lower VUR grade, refluxed later during bladder filling, and had significantly lower UDR. In a multivariable model, grade of VUR (p = 0.001), age early spontaneous resolution than grade alone. Furthermore, unlike traditional VUR grading where children with grade 1-5 may outgrow reflux depending on other factors, there appears to be a consistent UDR cutoff whereby patients are unlikely to resolve. In the present study, no child with a UDR greater than 0.43 experienced early spontaneous resolution, and only three (4.5%) of those with spontaneous resolution had a UDR above 0.35. UDR correlates with reflux grade, and is predictive of early resolution in children with primary VUR. UDR is an objective measurement of VUR, and provides valuable prognostic information about spontaneous

  16. A pediatric FOUR score coma scale: interrater reliability and predictive validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaikowski, Brianna L; Liang, Hong; Stewart, C Todd

    2014-04-01

    The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a coma scale that consists of four components (eye and motor response, brainstem reflexes, and respiration). It was originally validated among the adult population and recently in a pediatric population. To enhance clinical assessment of pediatric intensive care unit patients, including those intubated and/or sedated, at our children's hospital, we modified the FOUR Score Scale for this population. This modified scale would provide many of the same advantages as the original, such as interrater reliability, simplicity, and elimination of the verbal component that is not compatible with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), creating a more valuable neurological assessment tool for the nursing community. Our goal was to potentially provide greater information than the formally used GCS when assessing critically ill, neurologically impaired patients, including those sedated and/or intubated. Experienced pediatric intensive care unit nurses were trained as "expert raters." Two different nurses assessed each subject using the Pediatric FOUR Score Scale (PFSS), GCS, and Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale at three different time points. Data were compared with the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category (PCPC) assessed by another nurse. Our hypothesis was that the PFSS and PCPC should highly correlate and the GCS and PCPC should correlate lower. Study results show that the PFSS is excellent for interrater reliability for trained nurse-rater pairs and prediction of poor outcome and in-hospital mortality, under various situations, but there were no statistically significant differences between the PFSS and the GCS. However, the PFSS does have the potential to provide greater neurological assessment in the intubated and/or sedated patient based on the outcomes of our study.

  17. Prediction of proton chemical shifts in RNA - Their use in structure refinement and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cromsigt, Jenny A.M.T.C.; Hilbers, Cees W.; Wijmenga, Sybren S.

    2001-01-01

    An analysis is presented of experimental versus calculated chemical shifts of the non-exchangeable protons for 28 RNA structures deposited in the Protein Data Bank, covering a wide range of structural building blocks. We have used existing models for ring-current and magnetic-anisotropy contributions to calculate the proton chemical shifts from the structures. Two different parameter sets were tried: (i) parameters derived by Ribas-Prado and Giessner-Prettre (GP set) [(1981) J. Mol. Struct.,76, 81-92.]; (ii) parameters derived by Case [(1995) J. Biomol. NMR, 6, 341-346]. Both sets lead to similar results. The detailed analysis was carried using the GP set. The root-mean-square-deviation between the predicted and observed chemical shifts of the complete database is 0.16 ppm with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.79. For protons in the usually well-defined A-helix environment these numbers are, 0.08 ppm and 0.96, respectively. As a result of this good correspondence, a reliable analysis could be made of the structural dependencies of the 1 H chemical shifts revealing their physical origin. For example, a down-field shift of either H2' or H3' or both indicates a high-syn/syn χ-angle. In an A-helix it is essentially the 5'-neighbor that affects the chemical shifts of H5, H6 and H8 protons. The H5, H6 and H8 resonances can therefore be assigned in an A-helix on the basis of their observed chemical shifts. In general, the chemical shifts were found to be quite sensitive to structural changes. We therefore propose that a comparison between calculated and observed 1 H chemical shifts is a good tool for validation and refinement of structures derived from NOEs and J-couplings

  18. The Psychopathy Q-Sort. Construct Validity Evidence in a Nonclinical Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Katherine A.; Lilienfeld, Scott O.

    2007-01-01

    Scant research has examined the validity of instruments that permit observer ratings of psychopathy. Using a nonclinical (undergraduate) sample, the authors examined the associations between both self- and observer ratings on a psychopathy prototype (Psychopathy Q-Sort, PQS) and widely used measures of psychopathy, antisocial behavior, and…

  19. School Anxiety Inventory: Reliability and Validity Evidence in a Sample of Slovenian Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levpušcek, Melita Puklek; Inglés, Candido J.; Marzo, Juan C.; García-Fernández, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of the School Anxiety Inventory (SAI) using a sample of 646 Slovenian adolescents (48% boys), ranging in age from 12 to 19 years. Single confirmatory factor analyses replicated the correlated four-factor structure of scores on the SAI for anxiety-provoking school situations…

  20. Validation of the Adolescent Concerns Measure (ACM): Evidence from Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, Rebecca P.; Chong, Wan Har; Huan, Vivien S.; Yeo, Lay See

    2007-01-01

    This article reports the development and initial validation of scores obtained from the Adolescent Concerns Measure (ACM), a scale which assesses concerns of Asian adolescent students. In Study 1, findings from exploratory factor analysis using 619 adolescents suggested a 24-item scale with four correlated factors--Family Concerns (9 items), Peer…