External validation of the NUn score for predicting anastomotic leakage after oesophageal resection.

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Paireder, Matthias; Jomrich, Gerd; Asari, Reza; Kristo, Ivan; Gleiss, Andreas; Preusser, Matthias; Schoppmann, Sebastian F

2017-08-29

Early detection of anastomotic leakage (AL) after oesophageal resection for malignancy is crucial. This retrospective study validates a risk score, predicting AL, which includes C-reactive protein, albumin and white cell count in patients undergoing oesophageal resection between 2003 and 2014. For validation of the NUn score a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is estimated. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) is reported with 95% confidence interval (CI). Among 258 patients (79.5% male) 32 patients showed signs of anastomotic leakage (12.4%). NUn score in our data has a median of 9.3 (range 6.2-17.6). The odds ratio for AL was 1.31 (CI 1.03-1.67; p = 0.028). AUC for AL was 0.59 (CI 0.47-0.72). Using the original cutoff value of 10, the sensitivity was 45.2% an the specificity was 73.8%. This results in a positive predictive value of 19.4% and a negative predictive value of 90.6%. The proportion of variation in AL occurrence, which is explained by the NUn score, was 2.5% (PEV = 0.025). This study provides evidence for an external validation of a simple risk score for AL after oesophageal resection. In this cohort, the NUn score is not useful due to its poor discrimination.

Escala de atitudes frente ao uso de drogas: evidências de validade fatorial e preditiva Attitudes toward drugs use scale: evidences of factor and predictive validity

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Valdiney V. Gouveia

2007-01-01

Full Text Available OBJETIVO: O presente estudo teve como objetivo conhecer evidências de validade fatorial e preditiva de uma medida de atitudes ante o uso de drogas em geral (EAAUD. MÉTODO: Participaram voluntariamente 276 estudantes universitários de vários cursos, provenientes de uma universidade pública (94,2% e outra particular (5,8% da cidade de João Pessoa (PB. Estes tinham idade média de 21 anos (DP = 3,40; 93,5% eram de jovens de 17 a 25 anos, a maioria solteira (91% e do sexo feminino (65,6%. Além de um conjunto de perguntas demográficas, os participantes preencheram a EAAUD. Esta compreende uma medida formada por quatro itens/adjetivos bipolares (positivo/negativo, gosto/desgosto, bom/ruim e desejável/indesejável respondidos em escala do tipo diferencial semântico, de 9 pontos, variando de - 4 a + 4. RESULTADOS: De acordo com a análise de componentes principais, um único componente emergiu, com todos os itens apresentando saturação acima de |0,40|; este teve valor próprio de 3,17, explicando 79,3% da variância total. Sua consistência interna (alfa de Cronbach foi de 0,91. Por meio de regressão logística, comprovou-se que as pontuações na EAAUD predisseram significativamente a condição de ser um usuário de drogas, B = 0,17, Wald (1 = 8,45, p = 0,004. CONCLUSÃO: Tais resultados indicam que esta medida reúne evidências de validade fatorial e preditiva, podendo ser empregada para conhecer o potencial envolvimento dos jovens com drogas. Não obstante, sugerem-se novas pesquisas com amostras maiores e mais diversificadas.OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at knowing evidences of factor and predictive validity of a measure of attitudes toward drugs use (ATDUS. METHODS: Participants were 276 volunteer undergraduate students of several courses. They were of a public (94.2% and other private (5.8% university from João Pessoa city (Paraíba, with mean age of 21 years old (SD = 3.40; 93.5% were youths, with age ranging from 17 to 25. Most of

The Predictive Validity of Teacher Candidate Letters of Reference

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Mason, Richard W.; Schroeder, Mark P.

2014-01-01

Letters of reference are widely used as an essential part of the hiring process of newly licensed teachers. While the predictive validity of these letters of reference has been called into question it has never been empirically studied. The current study examined the predictive validity of the quality of letters of reference for forty-one student…

An integrated computational validation approach for potential novel miRNA prediction

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Pooja Viswam

2017-12-01

Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs are short, non-coding RNAs between 17bp-24bp length that regulate gene expression by targeting mRNA molecules. The regulatory functions of miRNAs are known to be majorly associated with disease phenotypes such as cancer, cell signaling, cell division, growth and other metabolisms. Novel miRNAs are defined as sequences which does not have any similarity with the existing known sequences and void of any experimental evidences. In recent decades, the advent of next-generation sequencing allows us to capture the small RNA molecules form the cells and developing methods to estimate their expression levels. Several computational algorithms are available to predict the novel miRNAs from the deep sequencing data. In this work, we integrated three novel miRNA prediction programs miRDeep, miRanalyzer and miRPRo to compare and validate their prediction efficiency. The dicer cleavage sites, alignment density, seed conservation, minimum free energy, AU-GC percentage, secondary loop scores, false discovery rates and confidence scores will be considered for comparison and evaluation. Efficiency to identify isomiRs and base pair mismatches in a strand specific manner will also be considered for the computational validation. Further, the criteria and parameters for the identification of the best possible novel miRNA with minimal false positive rates were deduced.

Literature evidence in open targets - a target validation platform.

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Kafkas, Şenay; Dunham, Ian; McEntyre, Johanna

2017-06-06

We present the Europe PMC literature component of Open Targets - a target validation platform that integrates various evidence to aid drug target identification and validation. The component identifies target-disease associations in documents and ranks the documents based on their confidence from the Europe PMC literature database, by using rules utilising expert-provided heuristic information. The confidence score of a given document represents how valuable the document is in the scope of target validation for a given target-disease association by taking into account the credibility of the association based on the properties of the text. The component serves the platform regularly with the up-to-date data since December, 2015. Currently, there are a total number of 1168365 distinct target-disease associations text mined from >26 million PubMed abstracts and >1.2 million Open Access full text articles. Our comparative analyses on the current available evidence data in the platform revealed that 850179 of these associations are exclusively identified by literature mining. This component helps the platform's users by providing the most relevant literature hits for a given target and disease. The text mining evidence along with the other types of evidence can be explored visually through https://www.targetvalidation.org and all the evidence data is available for download in json format from https://www.targetvalidation.org/downloads/data .

Evaluating the Predictive Validity of Graduate Management Admission Test Scores

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Sireci, Stephen G.; Talento-Miller, Eileen

2006-01-01

Admissions data and first-year grade point average (GPA) data from 11 graduate management schools were analyzed to evaluate the predictive validity of Graduate Management Admission Test[R] (GMAT[R]) scores and the extent to which predictive validity held across sex and race/ethnicity. The results indicated GMAT verbal and quantitative scores had…

Predicting and validating protein interactions using network structure.

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Pao-Yang Chen

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Protein interactions play a vital part in the function of a cell. As experimental techniques for detection and validation of protein interactions are time consuming, there is a need for computational methods for this task. Protein interactions appear to form a network with a relatively high degree of local clustering. In this paper we exploit this clustering by suggesting a score based on triplets of observed protein interactions. The score utilises both protein characteristics and network properties. Our score based on triplets is shown to complement existing techniques for predicting protein interactions, outperforming them on data sets which display a high degree of clustering. The predicted interactions score highly against test measures for accuracy. Compared to a similar score derived from pairwise interactions only, the triplet score displays higher sensitivity and specificity. By looking at specific examples, we show how an experimental set of interactions can be enriched and validated. As part of this work we also examine the effect of different prior databases upon the accuracy of prediction and find that the interactions from the same kingdom give better results than from across kingdoms, suggesting that there may be fundamental differences between the networks. These results all emphasize that network structure is important and helps in the accurate prediction of protein interactions. The protein interaction data set and the program used in our analysis, and a list of predictions and validations, are available at http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/bioinfo/resources/PredictingInteractions.

Individualized prediction of perineural invasion in colorectal cancer: development and validation of a radiomics prediction model.

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Huang, Yanqi; He, Lan; Dong, Di; Yang, Caiyun; Liang, Cuishan; Chen, Xin; Ma, Zelan; Huang, Xiaomei; Yao, Su; Liang, Changhong; Tian, Jie; Liu, Zaiyi

2018-02-01

To develop and validate a radiomics prediction model for individualized prediction of perineural invasion (PNI) in colorectal cancer (CRC). After computed tomography (CT) radiomics features extraction, a radiomics signature was constructed in derivation cohort (346 CRC patients). A prediction model was developed to integrate the radiomics signature and clinical candidate predictors [age, sex, tumor location, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level]. Apparent prediction performance was assessed. After internal validation, independent temporal validation (separate from the cohort used to build the model) was then conducted in 217 CRC patients. The final model was converted to an easy-to-use nomogram. The developed radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature and CEA level showed good calibration and discrimination performance [Harrell's concordance index (c-index): 0.817; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.811-0.823]. Application of the nomogram in validation cohort gave a comparable calibration and discrimination (c-index: 0.803; 95% CI: 0.794-0.812). Integrating the radiomics signature and CEA level into a radiomics prediction model enables easy and effective risk assessment of PNI in CRC. This stratification of patients according to their PNI status may provide a basis for individualized auxiliary treatment.

Predictive validity of the Slovene Matura

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Valentin Bucik

2001-09-01

Full Text Available Passing Matura is the last step of the secondary school graduation, but it is also the entrance ticket for the university. Besides, the summary score of Matura exam takes part in the selection process for the particular university studies in case of 'numerus clausus'. In discussing either aim of Matura important dilemmas arise, namely, is the Matura examination sufficiently exact and rightful procedure to, firstly, use its results for settling starting studying conditions and, secondly, to select validly, reliably and sensibly the best candidates for university studies. There are some questions concerning predictive validity of Matura that should be answered, e.g. (i does Matura as an enrollment procedure add to the qualitaty of the study; (ii is it a better selection tool than entrance examinations formerly used in different faculties in the case of 'numerus clausus'; and (iii is it reasonable to expect high predictive validity of Matura results for success at the university at all. Recent results show that in the last few years the dropout-rate is lower than before, the pass-rate between the first and the second year is higher and the average duration of study per student is shorter. It is clear, however, that it is not possible to simply predict the study success from the Matura results. There are too many factors influencing the success in the university studies. In most examined study programs the correlation between Matura results and study success is positive but moderate, therefore it can not be said categorically that only candidates accepted according to the Matura results are (or will be the best students. Yet it has been shown that Matura is a standardized procedure, comparable across different candidates entering university, and that – when compared entrance examinations – it is more objective, reliable, and hen ce more valid and fair a procedure. In addition, comparable procedures of university recruiting and selection can be

Valid Probabilistic Predictions for Ginseng with Venn Machines Using Electronic Nose

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You Wang

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In the application of electronic noses (E-noses, probabilistic prediction is a good way to estimate how confident we are about our prediction. In this work, a homemade E-nose system embedded with 16 metal-oxide semi-conductive gas sensors was used to discriminate nine kinds of ginsengs of different species or production places. A flexible machine learning framework, Venn machine (VM was introduced to make probabilistic predictions for each prediction. Three Venn predictors were developed based on three classical probabilistic prediction methods (Platt’s method, Softmax regression and Naive Bayes. Three Venn predictors and three classical probabilistic prediction methods were compared in aspect of classification rate and especially the validity of estimated probability. A best classification rate of 88.57% was achieved with Platt’s method in offline mode, and the classification rate of VM-SVM (Venn machine based on Support Vector Machine was 86.35%, just 2.22% lower. The validity of Venn predictors performed better than that of corresponding classical probabilistic prediction methods. The validity of VM-SVM was superior to the other methods. The results demonstrated that Venn machine is a flexible tool to make precise and valid probabilistic prediction in the application of E-nose, and VM-SVM achieved the best performance for the probabilistic prediction of ginseng samples.

The predictive validity of a situational judgement test, a clinical problem solving test and the core medical training selection methods for performance in specialty training .

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Patterson, Fiona; Lopes, Safiatu; Harding, Stephen; Vaux, Emma; Berkin, Liz; Black, David

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to follow up a sample of physicians who began core medical training (CMT) in 2009. This paper examines the long-term validity of CMT and GP selection methods in predicting performance in the Membership of Royal College of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations. We performed a longitudinal study, examining the extent to which the GP and CMT selection methods (T1) predict performance in the MRCP(UK) examinations (T2). A total of 2,569 applicants from 2008-09 who completed CMT and GP selection methods were included in the study. Looking at MRCP(UK) part 1, part 2 written and PACES scores, both CMT and GP selection methods show evidence of predictive validity for the outcome variables, and hierarchical regressions show the GP methods add significant value to the CMT selection process. CMT selection methods predict performance in important outcomes and have good evidence of validity; the GP methods may have an additional role alongside the CMT selection methods. © Royal College of Physicians 2017. All rights reserved.

RBANS memory percentage retention: No evidence of incremental validity beyond RBANS scores for diagnostic classification of mild cognitive impairment and dementia and for prediction of daily function.

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Jodouin, Kara A; O'Connell, Megan E; Morgan, Debra G

2017-01-01

RBANS percentage retention scores may be useful for diagnosis, but their incremental validity is unclear. Percentage retention versus RBANS immediate and delayed memory subtests and delayed index scores were compared for diagnostic classification and for prediction of function. Data from 173 memory clinic patients with an interdisciplinary diagnosis (no cognitive impairment, amnestic mild cognitive impairment [aMCI], and dementia due to Alzheimer's disease [AD]) and complete RBANS data were analyzed. Across diagnostic contrasts, list percentage retention classification accuracy was similar to List Learning delayed recall, but below the Delayed Memory Index (DMI). Similarly, for classifying no cognitive impairment versus aMCI or dementia due to AD, story percentage retention was similar to Story Memory subtests and below the DMI. For classifying aMCI versus AD; however, Story Memory exceeded the DMI, but was similar to Story Memory subtest scores. Similarly, for prediction of function percentage retention measures did not predict variance beyond that predicted by the RBANS subtest or index scores. In sum, there is no evidence that calculation of percentage retention for RBANS adds clinical utility beyond those provided by the standard RBANS scores.

The Predictive Validity of Projective Measures.

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Suinn, Richard M.; Oskamp, Stuart

Written for use by clinical practitioners as well as psychological researchers, this book surveys recent literature (1950-1965) on projective test validity by reviewing and critically evaluating studies which shed light on what may reliably be predicted from projective test results. Two major instruments are covered: the Rorschach and the Thematic…

Disentangling the Predictive Validity of High School Grades for Academic Success in University

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Vulperhorst, Jonne; Lutz, Christel; de Kleijn, Renske; van Tartwijk, Jan

2018-01-01

To refine selective admission models, we investigate which measure of prior achievement has the best predictive validity for academic success in university. We compare the predictive validity of three core high school subjects to the predictive validity of high school grade point average (GPA) for academic achievement in a liberal arts university…

When Assessment Data Are Words: Validity Evidence for Qualitative Educational Assessments.

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Cook, David A; Kuper, Ayelet; Hatala, Rose; Ginsburg, Shiphra

2016-10-01

Quantitative scores fail to capture all important features of learner performance. This awareness has led to increased use of qualitative data when assessing health professionals. Yet the use of qualitative assessments is hampered by incomplete understanding of their role in forming judgments, and lack of consensus in how to appraise the rigor of judgments therein derived. The authors articulate the role of qualitative assessment as part of a comprehensive program of assessment, and translate the concept of validity to apply to judgments arising from qualitative assessments. They first identify standards for rigor in qualitative research, and then use two contemporary assessment validity frameworks to reorganize these standards for application to qualitative assessment.Standards for rigor in qualitative research include responsiveness, reflexivity, purposive sampling, thick description, triangulation, transparency, and transferability. These standards can be reframed using Messick's five sources of validity evidence (content, response process, internal structure, relationships with other variables, and consequences) and Kane's four inferences in validation (scoring, generalization, extrapolation, and implications). Evidence can be collected and evaluated for each evidence source or inference. The authors illustrate this approach using published research on learning portfolios.The authors advocate a "methods-neutral" approach to assessment, in which a clearly stated purpose determines the nature of and approach to data collection and analysis. Increased use of qualitative assessments will necessitate more rigorous judgments of the defensibility (validity) of inferences and decisions. Evidence should be strategically sought to inform a coherent validity argument.

Evaluating the predictive accuracy and the clinical benefit of a nomogram aimed to predict survival in node-positive prostate cancer patients: External validation on a multi-institutional database.

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Bianchi, Lorenzo; Schiavina, Riccardo; Borghesi, Marco; Bianchi, Federico Mineo; Briganti, Alberto; Carini, Marco; Terrone, Carlo; Mottrie, Alex; Gacci, Mauro; Gontero, Paolo; Imbimbo, Ciro; Marchioro, Giansilvio; Milanese, Giulio; Mirone, Vincenzo; Montorsi, Francesco; Morgia, Giuseppe; Novara, Giacomo; Porreca, Angelo; Volpe, Alessandro; Brunocilla, Eugenio

2018-04-06

To assess the predictive accuracy and the clinical value of a recent nomogram predicting cancer-specific mortality-free survival after surgery in pN1 prostate cancer patients through an external validation. We evaluated 518 prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection with evidence of nodal metastases at final pathology, at 10 tertiary centers. External validation was carried out using regression coefficients of the previously published nomogram. The performance characteristics of the model were assessed by quantifying predictive accuracy, according to the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic curve and model calibration. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed the specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for each nomogram-derived probability cut-off. Finally, we implemented decision curve analysis, in order to quantify the nomogram's clinical value in routine practice. External validation showed inferior predictive accuracy as referred to in the internal validation (65.8% vs 83.3%, respectively). The discrimination (area under the curve) of the multivariable model was 66.7% (95% CI 60.1-73.0%) by testing with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The calibration plot showed an overestimation throughout the range of predicted cancer-specific mortality-free survival rates probabilities. However, in decision curve analysis, the nomogram's use showed a net benefit when compared with the scenarios of treating all patients or none. In an external setting, the nomogram showed inferior predictive accuracy and suboptimal calibration characteristics as compared to that reported in the original population. However, decision curve analysis showed a clinical net benefit, suggesting a clinical implication to correctly manage pN1 prostate cancer patients after surgery. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

Sensor Data Fusion for Accurate Cloud Presence Prediction Using Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory

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Jesse S. Jin

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Sensor data fusion technology can be used to best extract useful information from multiple sensor observations. It has been widely applied in various applications such as target tracking, surveillance, robot navigation, signal and image processing. This paper introduces a novel data fusion approach in a multiple radiation sensor environment using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology is used to predict cloud presence based on the inputs of radiation sensors. Different radiation data have been used for the cloud prediction. The potential application areas of the algorithm include renewable power for virtual power station where the prediction of cloud presence is the most challenging issue for its photovoltaic output. The algorithm is validated by comparing the predicted cloud presence with the corresponding sunshine occurrence data that were recorded as the benchmark. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual sensors, the proposed data fusion approach can increase correct rate of cloud prediction by ten percent, and decrease unknown rate of cloud prediction by twenty three percent.

Brief implicit association test: Validity and utility in prediction of voting behavior

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Pavlović Maša D.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We employed the Brief Implicit Association Test (a recently developed short version of IAT to measure implicit political attitudes toward four political parties running for Serbian parliament. To test its criterion validity, we measured voting intention and actual voting behavior. In addition, we introduced political involvement as a potential moderator of the BIAT’s predictive and incremental validity. The BIAT demonstrated good internal and predictive validity, but lacked incremental validity over self-report measures. Predictive power of the BIAT was moderated by political involvement - the BIAT scores were stronger predictors of voting intention and behavior among voters highly involved in politics. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179018

Validity evidence as a key marker of quality of technical skill assessment in OTL-HNS.

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Labbé, Mathilde; Young, Meredith; Nguyen, Lily H P

2018-01-13

Quality monitoring of assessment practices should be a priority in all residency programs. Validity evidence is one of the main hallmarks of assessment quality and should be collected to support the interpretation and use of assessment data. Our objective was to identify, synthesize, and present the validity evidence reported supporting different technical skill assessment tools in otolaryngology-head and neck surgery (OTL-HNS). We performed a secondary analysis of data generated through a systematic review of all published tools for assessing technical skills in OTL-HNS (n = 16). For each tool, we coded validity evidence according to the five types of evidence described by the American Educational Research Association's interpretation of Messick's validity framework. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted. All 16 tools included in our analysis were supported by internal structure and relationship to variables validity evidence. Eleven articles presented evidence supporting content. Response process was discussed only in one article, and no study reported on evidence exploring consequences. We present the validity evidence reported for 16 rater-based tools that could be used for work-based assessment of OTL-HNS residents in the operating room. The articles included in our review were consistently deficient in evidence for response process and consequences. Rater-based assessment tools that support high-stakes decisions that impact the learner and programs should include several sources of validity evidence. Thus, use of any assessment should be done with careful consideration of the context-specific validity evidence supporting score interpretation, and we encourage deliberate continual assessment quality-monitoring. NA. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model

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Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...

Evidence of Construct Validity for Work Values

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Leuty, Melanie E.; Hansen, Jo-Ida C.

2011-01-01

Despite the importance of work values in the process of career adjustment (Dawis, 2002), little empirical research has focused on articulating the domains represented within the construct of work values and the examination of evidence of validity for the construct has been limited. Furthermore, the larger number of work values measures has made it…

20 CFR 219.31 - Evidence of a valid ceremonial marriage.

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2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Evidence of a valid ceremonial marriage. 219... marriage. (a) Preferred evidence. Preferred evidence of a ceremonial marriage is— (1) A copy of the public record of the marriage, certified by the custodian of the record or by a Board employee; (2) A copy of a...

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

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van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

External validation of the Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) to predict conversion from laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy.

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Hu, Alan Shiun Yew; Donohue, Peter O'; Gunnarsson, Ronny K; de Costa, Alan

2018-03-14

Valid and user-friendly prediction models for conversion to open cholecystectomy allow for proper planning prior to surgery. The Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) has been in use clinically in the original study site for the past three years, but has not been tested at other sites. A retrospective, single-centred study collected ultrasonic measurements and clinical variables alongside with conversion status from consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy from 2013 to 2016 in The Townsville Hospital, North Queensland, Australia. An area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to externally validate of the CPM. Conversion was necessary in 43 (4.2%) out of 1035 patients. External validation showed an area under the curve of 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.93, p = 1.1 × 10 -14 ). In comparison with most previously published models, which have an AUC of approximately 0.80 or less, the CPM has the highest AUC of all published prediction models both for internal and external validation. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive Validity of Delay Discounting Behavior in Adolescence: A Longitudinal Twin Study

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Isen, Joshua D.; Sparks, Jordan C.; Iacono, William G.

2014-01-01

A standard assumption in the delay discounting literature is that individuals who exhibit steeper discounting of hypothetical rewards also experience greater difficulty deferring gratification to real-world rewards. There is ample cross-sectional evidence that delay discounting paradigms reflect a variety of maladaptive psychosocial outcomes, including substance use pathology. We sought to determine whether a computerized assessment of hypothetical delay discounting (HDD) taps into behavioral impulsivity in a community sample of adolescent twins (N = 675). Using a longitudinal design, we hypothesized that greater HDD at age 14–15 predicts real-world impulsive choices and risk for substance use disorders in late adolescence. We also examined the genetic and environmental structure of HDD performance. Individual differences in HDD behavior showed moderate heritability, and were prospectively associated with real-world temporal discounting at age 17–18. Contrary to expectations, HDD was not consistently related to substance use or trait impulsivity. Although a significant association between HDD behavior and past substance use emerged in males, this effect was mediated by cognitive ability. In both sexes, HDD failed to predict a comprehensive index of substance use problems and behavioral disinhibition in late adolescence. In sum, we present some of the first evidence that HDD performance is heritable and predictive of real-world temporal discounting of rewards. Nevertheless, HDD might not serve as a valid marker of substance use disorder risk in younger adolescents, particularly females. PMID:24999868

Validation of new prognostic and predictive scores by sequential testing approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nieder, Carsten; Haukland, Ellinor; Pawinski, Adam; Dalhaug, Astrid

2010-01-01

Background and Purpose: For practitioners, the question arises how their own patient population differs from that used in large-scale analyses resulting in new scores and nomograms and whether such tools actually are valid at a local level and thus can be implemented. A recent article proposed an easy-to-use method for the in-clinic validation of new prediction tools with a limited number of patients, a so-called sequential testing approach. The present study evaluates this approach in scores related to radiation oncology. Material and Methods: Three different scores were used, each predicting short overall survival after palliative radiotherapy (bone metastases, brain metastases, metastatic spinal cord compression). For each scenario, a limited number of consecutive patients entered the sequential testing approach. The positive predictive value (PPV) was used for validation of the respective score and it was required that the PPV exceeded 80%. Results: For two scores, validity in the own local patient population could be confirmed after entering 13 and 17 patients, respectively. For the third score, no decision could be reached even after increasing the sample size to 30. Conclusion: In-clinic validation of new predictive tools with sequential testing approach should be preferred over uncritical adoption of tools which provide no significant benefit to local patient populations. Often the necessary number of patients can be reached within reasonable time frames even in small oncology practices. In addition, validation is performed continuously as the data are collected. (orig.)

Validation of new prognostic and predictive scores by sequential testing approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nieder, Carsten [Radiation Oncology Unit, Nordland Hospital, Bodo (Norway); Inst. of Clinical Medicine, Univ. of Tromso (Norway); Haukland, Ellinor; Pawinski, Adam; Dalhaug, Astrid [Radiation Oncology Unit, Nordland Hospital, Bodo (Norway)

2010-03-15

Background and Purpose: For practitioners, the question arises how their own patient population differs from that used in large-scale analyses resulting in new scores and nomograms and whether such tools actually are valid at a local level and thus can be implemented. A recent article proposed an easy-to-use method for the in-clinic validation of new prediction tools with a limited number of patients, a so-called sequential testing approach. The present study evaluates this approach in scores related to radiation oncology. Material and Methods: Three different scores were used, each predicting short overall survival after palliative radiotherapy (bone metastases, brain metastases, metastatic spinal cord compression). For each scenario, a limited number of consecutive patients entered the sequential testing approach. The positive predictive value (PPV) was used for validation of the respective score and it was required that the PPV exceeded 80%. Results: For two scores, validity in the own local patient population could be confirmed after entering 13 and 17 patients, respectively. For the third score, no decision could be reached even after increasing the sample size to 30. Conclusion: In-clinic validation of new predictive tools with sequential testing approach should be preferred over uncritical adoption of tools which provide no significant benefit to local patient populations. Often the necessary number of patients can be reached within reasonable time frames even in small oncology practices. In addition, validation is performed continuously as the data are collected. (orig.)

Validity evidence for the measurement of the strength of motivation for medical school.

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Kusurkar, Rashmi; Croiset, Gerda; Kruitwagen, Cas; ten Cate, Olle

2011-05-01

The Strength of Motivation for Medical School (SMMS) questionnaire is designed to determine the strength of motivation of students particularly for medical study. This research was performed to establish the validity evidence for measuring strength of motivation for medical school. Internal structure and relations to other variables were used as the sources of validity evidence. The SMMS questionnaire was filled out by 1,494 medical students in different years of medical curriculum. The validity evidence for the internal structure was analyzed by principal components analysis with promax rotation. Validity evidence for relations to other variables was tested by comparing the SMMS scores with scores on the Academic Motivation Scale (AMS) and the exhaustion scale of Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey (MBI-SS) for measuring study stress. Evidence for internal consistency was determined through the Cronbach's alpha for reliability. The analysis showed that the SMMS had a 3-factor structure. The validity in relations to other variables was established as both, the subscales and full scale scores significantly correlated positively with the intrinsic motivation scores and with the more autonomous forms of extrinsic motivation, the correlation decreasing and finally becoming negative towards the extrinsic motivation end of the spectrum. They also had significant negative correlations with amotivation scale of the AMS and exhaustion scale of MBI-SS. The Cronbach's alpha for reliability of the three subscales and full SMMS scores was 0.70, 0.67, 0.55 and 0.79. The strength of motivation for medical school has a three factor structure and acceptable validity evidence was found in our study.

Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

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Ayaz Hyder

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

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Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

2013-01-01

Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

Systematic validation of predicted microRNAs for cyclin D1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Qiong; Feng, Ming-Guang; Mo, Yin-Yuan

2009-01-01

MicroRNAs are the endogenous small non-coding RNA molecules capable of silencing protein coding genes at the posttranscriptional level. Based on computer-aided predictions, a single microRNA could have over a hundred of targets. On the other hand, a single protein-coding gene could be targeted by many potential microRNAs. However, only a relatively small number of these predicted microRNA/mRNA interactions are experimentally validated, and no systematic validation has been carried out using a reporter system. In this study, we used luciferease reporter assays to validate microRNAs that can silence cyclin D1 (CCND1) because CCND1 is a well known proto-oncogene implicated in a variety of types of cancers. We chose miRanda (http://www.microRNA.org) as a primary prediction method. We then cloned 51 of 58 predicted microRNA precursors into pCDH-CMV-MCS-EF1-copGFP and tested for their effect on the luciferase reporter carrying the 3'-untranslated region (UTR) of CCND1 gene. Real-time PCR revealed the 45 of 51 cloned microRNA precursors expressed a relatively high level of the exogenous microRNAs which were used in our validation experiments. By an arbitrary cutoff of 35% reduction, we identified 7 microRNAs that were able to suppress Luc-CCND1-UTR activity. Among them, 4 of them were previously validated targets and the rest 3 microRNAs were validated to be positive in this study. Of interest, we found that miR-503 not only suppressed the luciferase activity, but also suppressed the endogenous CCND1 both at protein and mRNA levels. Furthermore, we showed that miR-503 was able to reduce S phase cell populations and caused cell growth inhibition, suggesting that miR-503 may be a putative tumor suppressor. This study provides a more comprehensive picture of microRNA/CCND1 interactions and it further demonstrates the importance of experimental target validation

Basic Modelling principles and Validation of Software for Prediction of Collision Damage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, Bo Cerup

2000-01-01

This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software.......This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software....

Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

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Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

2018-03-01

Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petticrew, Mark; Cummins, Steven; Sparks, Leigh; Findlay, Anne

2007-01-01

Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers

Performance of a cognitive load inventory during simulated handoffs: Evidence for validity.

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Young, John Q; Boscardin, Christy K; van Dijk, Savannah M; Abdullah, Ruqayyah; Irby, David M; Sewell, Justin L; Ten Cate, Olle; O'Sullivan, Patricia S

2016-01-01

Advancing patient safety during handoffs remains a public health priority. The application of cognitive load theory offers promise, but is currently limited by the inability to measure cognitive load types. To develop and collect validity evidence for a revised self-report inventory that measures cognitive load types during a handoff. Based on prior published work, input from experts in cognitive load theory and handoffs, and a think-aloud exercise with residents, a revised Cognitive Load Inventory for Handoffs was developed. The Cognitive Load Inventory for Handoffs has items for intrinsic, extraneous, and germane load. Students who were second- and sixth-year students recruited from a Dutch medical school participated in four simulated handoffs (two simple and two complex cases). At the end of each handoff, study participants completed the Cognitive Load Inventory for Handoffs, Paas' Cognitive Load Scale, and one global rating item for intrinsic load, extraneous load, and germane load, respectively. Factor and correlational analyses were performed to collect evidence for validity. Confirmatory factor analysis yielded a single factor that combined intrinsic and germane loads. The extraneous load items performed poorly and were removed from the model. The score from the combined intrinsic and germane load items associated, as predicted by cognitive load theory, with a commonly used measure of overall cognitive load (Pearson's r = 0.83, p load during handoffs may be measured via a self-report measure. Additional work is required to develop an adequate measure of extraneous load.

Evidence of Validity of the Job Crafting Behaviors Scale

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Renata Silva de Carvalho Chinelato

2015-12-01

Full Text Available AbstractJob crafting behavior refers to the changes made by workers in their job context for adjusting their activities to their preferences. We sought to adapt and collect validity evidences of the Job Crafting Behaviors Scale for the Brazilian context, in a sample of 491 workers, with a mean age of 26.7 years. Factor analysis revealed that the final instrument consisted of three dimensions (increasing structural job resources, increasing social job resources, increasing challenging job demands, which showed good internal consistency indexes. These dimensions showed low or moderate correlations with work engagement, positive psychological capital, positive job affect, and in-role performance. The scale showed evidence of validity, the use of which is recommended for future research on the changes that people make in their jobs.

Predictive validity of the GOSLON Yardstick index in patients with unilateral cleft lip and palate: A systematic review.

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Cindy Buj-Acosta

Full Text Available Among the various indices developed for measuring the results of treatment in patients born with unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP, the GOSLON Yardstick index is the most widely used to assess the efficacy of treatment and treatment outcomes, which in UCLP cases are closely linked to jaw growth. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to validate the predictability of growth using the GOSLON Yardstick in patients born with UCLP. A systematic literature review was conducted in four Internet databases: Medline, Cochrane Library, Scopus and Embase, complemented by a manual search and a further search in the databases of the leading journals that focus on this topic. An electronic search was also conducted among grey literature. The search identified a total of 131 articles. Duplicated articles were excluded and after reading titles and abstracts, any articles not related to the research objective were excluded, leaving a total of 21 texts. After reading the complete text, only three articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The results showed a predictive validity of between 42.2% and 64.7%, which points to a lack of evidence in the literature for the predictive validity of the GOSLON Yardstick index used in children born with UCLP.

Automatic evidence quality prediction to support evidence-based decision making.

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Sarker, Abeed; Mollá, Diego; Paris, Cécile

2015-06-01

Evidence-based medicine practice requires practitioners to obtain the best available medical evidence, and appraise the quality of the evidence when making clinical decisions. Primarily due to the plethora of electronically available data from the medical literature, the manual appraisal of the quality of evidence is a time-consuming process. We present a fully automatic approach for predicting the quality of medical evidence in order to aid practitioners at point-of-care. Our approach extracts relevant information from medical article abstracts and utilises data from a specialised corpus to apply supervised machine learning for the prediction of the quality grades. Following an in-depth analysis of the usefulness of features (e.g., publication types of articles), they are extracted from the text via rule-based approaches and from the meta-data associated with the articles, and then applied in the supervised classification model. We propose the use of a highly scalable and portable approach using a sequence of high precision classifiers, and introduce a simple evaluation metric called average error distance (AED) that simplifies the comparison of systems. We also perform elaborate human evaluations to compare the performance of our system against human judgments. We test and evaluate our approaches on a publicly available, specialised, annotated corpus containing 1132 evidence-based recommendations. Our rule-based approach performs exceptionally well at the automatic extraction of publication types of articles, with F-scores of up to 0.99 for high-quality publication types. For evidence quality classification, our approach obtains an accuracy of 63.84% and an AED of 0.271. The human evaluations show that the performance of our system, in terms of AED and accuracy, is comparable to the performance of humans on the same data. The experiments suggest that our structured text classification framework achieves evaluation results comparable to those of human performance

Predictive value and construct validity of the work functioning screener-healthcare (WFS-H)

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Boezeman, Edwin J.; Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Sluiter, Judith K.

2016-01-01

Objectives: To test the predictive value and convergent construct validity of a 6-item work functioning screener (WFS-H). Methods: Healthcare workers (249 nurses) completed a questionnaire containing the work functioning screener (WFS-H) and a work functioning instrument (NWFQ) measuring the following: cognitive aspects of task execution and general incidents, avoidance behavior, conflicts and irritation with colleagues, impaired contact with patients and their family, and level of energy and motivation. Productivity and mental health were also measured. Negative and positive predictive values, AUC values, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated to examine the predictive value of the screener. Correlation analysis was used to examine the construct validity. Results: The screener had good predictive value, since the results showed that a negative screener score is a strong indicator of work functioning not hindered by mental health problems (negative predictive values: 94%-98%; positive predictive values: 21%-36%; AUC:.64-.82; sensitivity: 42%-76%; and specificity 85%-87%). The screener has good construct validity due to moderate, but significant (pvalue and good construct validity. Its score offers occupational health professionals a helpful preliminary insight into the work functioning of healthcare workers. PMID:27010085

Predictive value and construct validity of the work functioning screener-healthcare (WFS-H).

Science.gov (United States)

Boezeman, Edwin J; Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Sluiter, Judith K

2016-05-25

To test the predictive value and convergent construct validity of a 6-item work functioning screener (WFS-H). Healthcare workers (249 nurses) completed a questionnaire containing the work functioning screener (WFS-H) and a work functioning instrument (NWFQ) measuring the following: cognitive aspects of task execution and general incidents, avoidance behavior, conflicts and irritation with colleagues, impaired contact with patients and their family, and level of energy and motivation. Productivity and mental health were also measured. Negative and positive predictive values, AUC values, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated to examine the predictive value of the screener. Correlation analysis was used to examine the construct validity. The screener had good predictive value, since the results showed that a negative screener score is a strong indicator of work functioning not hindered by mental health problems (negative predictive values: 94%-98%; positive predictive values: 21%-36%; AUC:.64-.82; sensitivity: 42%-76%; and specificity 85%-87%). The screener has good construct validity due to moderate, but significant (ppredictive value and good construct validity. Its score offers occupational health professionals a helpful preliminary insight into the work functioning of healthcare workers.

Prediction of dissolved reactive phosphorus losses from small agricultural catchments: calibration and validation of a parsimonious model

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C. Hahn

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Eutrophication of surface waters due to diffuse phosphorus (P losses continues to be a severe water quality problem worldwide, causing the loss of ecosystem functions of the respective water bodies. Phosphorus in runoff often originates from a small fraction of a catchment only. Targeting mitigation measures to these critical source areas (CSAs is expected to be most efficient and cost-effective, but requires suitable tools. Here we investigated the capability of the parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff-Phosphorus (RRP model to identify CSAs in grassland-dominated catchments based on readily available soil and topographic data. After simultaneous calibration on runoff data from four small hilly catchments on the Swiss Plateau, the model was validated on a different catchment in the same region without further calibration. The RRP model adequately simulated the discharge and dissolved reactive P (DRP export from the validation catchment. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model predictions were robust with respect to the classification of soils into "poorly drained" and "well drained", based on the available soil map. Comparing spatial hydrological model predictions with field data from the validation catchment provided further evidence that the assumptions underlying the model are valid and that the model adequately accounts for the dominant P export processes in the target region. Thus, the parsimonious RRP model is a valuable tool that can be used to determine CSAs. Despite the considerable predictive uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of CSAs, the RRP can provide guidance for the implementation of mitigation measures. The model helps to identify those parts of a catchment where high DRP losses are expected or can be excluded with high confidence. Legacy P was predicted to be the dominant source for DRP losses and thus, in combination with hydrologic active areas, a high risk for water quality.

External validation of multivariable prediction models: a systematic review of methodological conduct and reporting

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures. Results 11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models. Conclusions The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling

Validity evidence for the Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery (FLS) program as an assessment tool: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Zendejas, Benjamin; Ruparel, Raaj K; Cook, David A

2016-02-01

The Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery (FLS) program uses five simulation stations (peg transfer, precision cutting, loop ligation, and suturing with extracorporeal and intracorporeal knot tying) to teach and assess laparoscopic surgery skills. We sought to summarize evidence regarding the validity of scores from the FLS assessment. We systematically searched for studies evaluating the FLS as an assessment tool (last search update February 26, 2013). We classified validity evidence using the currently standard validity framework (content, response process, internal structure, relations with other variables, and consequences). From a pool of 11,628 studies, we identified 23 studies reporting validity evidence for FLS scores. Studies involved residents (n = 19), practicing physicians (n = 17), and medical students (n = 8), in specialties of general (n = 17), gynecologic (n = 4), urologic (n = 1), and veterinary (n = 1) surgery. Evidence was most common in the form of relations with other variables (n = 22, most often expert-novice differences). Only three studies reported internal structure evidence (inter-rater or inter-station reliability), two studies reported content evidence (i.e., derivation of assessment elements), and three studies reported consequences evidence (definition of pass/fail thresholds). Evidence nearly always supported the validity of FLS total scores. However, the loop ligation task lacks discriminatory ability. Validity evidence confirms expected relations with other variables and acceptable inter-rater reliability, but other validity evidence is sparse. Given the high-stakes use of this assessment (required for board eligibility), we suggest that more validity evidence is required, especially to support its content (selection of tasks and scoring rubric) and the consequences (favorable and unfavorable impact) of assessment.

Latency-Based and Psychophysiological Measures of Sexual Interest Show Convergent and Concurrent Validity.

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Ó Ciardha, Caoilte; Attard-Johnson, Janice; Bindemann, Markus

2018-04-01

Latency-based measures of sexual interest require additional evidence of validity, as do newer pupil dilation approaches. A total of 102 community men completed six latency-based measures of sexual interest. Pupillary responses were recorded during three of these tasks and in an additional task where no participant response was required. For adult stimuli, there was a high degree of intercorrelation between measures, suggesting that tasks may be measuring the same underlying construct (convergent validity). In addition to being correlated with one another, measures also predicted participants' self-reported sexual interest, demonstrating concurrent validity (i.e., the ability of a task to predict a more validated, simultaneously recorded, measure). Latency-based and pupillometric approaches also showed preliminary evidence of concurrent validity in predicting both self-reported interest in child molestation and viewing pornographic material containing children. Taken together, the study findings build on the evidence base for the validity of latency-based and pupillometric measures of sexual interest.

Evaluating Existing and New Validity Evidence for the Academic Motivation Scale

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Fairchild, Amanda J.; Horst, S. Jeanne; Finney, Sara J.; Barron, Kenneth E.

2005-01-01

The current study evaluates existing and new validity evidence for the Academic Motivation Scale (AMS; Vallerand et al., 1992). We first provide a narrative review synthesizing past research, and then conduct a validity investigation of the scores from the measure. Data analysis using a sample of 1406 American college students provided construct…

Further validation of the Satisfaction with Life Scale: evidence for the cross-method convergence of well-being measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Pavot, W; Diener, E; Colvin, C R; Sandvik, E

1991-08-01

The structure of subjective well-being has been conceptualized as consisting of two major components: the emotional or affective component and the judgmental or cognitive component (Diener, 1984; Veenhoven, 1984). The judgmental component has also been conceptualized as life satisfaction (Andrews & Withey, 1976). Although the affective component of subjective well-being has received considerable attention from researchers, the judgmental component has been relatively neglected. The Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS; Diener, Emmons, Larsen, & Griffin, 1985) was developed as a measure of the judgmental component of subjective well-being (SWB). Two studied designed to validate further the SWLS are reported. Peer reports, a memory measure, and clinical ratings are used as external criteria for validation. Evidence for the reliability and predictive validity of the SWLS is presented, and its performance is compared to other related scales. The SWLS is shown to be a valid and reliable measure of life satisfaction, suited for use with a wide range of age groups and applications, which makes possible the savings of interview time and resources compared to many measures of life satisfaction. In addition, the high convergence of self- and peer-reported measures of subjective well-being and life satisfaction provide strong evidence that subjective well-being is a relatively global and stable phenomenon, not simply a momentary judgment based on fleeting influences.

Validity Evidence for the Neuro-Endoscopic Ventriculostomy Assessment Tool (NEVAT).

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Breimer, Gerben E; Haji, Faizal A; Cinalli, Giuseppe; Hoving, Eelco W; Drake, James M

2017-02-01

Growing demand for transparent and standardized methods for evaluating surgical competence prompted the construction of the Neuro-Endoscopic Ventriculostomy Assessment Tool (NEVAT). To provide validity evidence of the NEVAT by reporting on the tool's internal structure and its relationship with surgical expertise during simulation-based training. The NEVAT was used to assess performance of trainees and faculty at an international neuroendoscopy workshop. All participants performed an endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) on a synthetic simulator. Participants were simultaneously scored by 2 raters using the NEVAT procedural checklist and global rating scale (GRS). Evidence of internal structure was collected by calculating interrater reliability and internal consistency of raters' scores. Evidence of relationships with other variables was collected by comparing the ETV performance of experts, experienced trainees, and novices using Jonckheere's test (evidence of construct validity). Thirteen experts, 11 experienced trainees, and 10 novices participated. The interrater reliability by the intraclass correlation coefficient for the checklist and GRS was 0.82 and 0.94, respectively. Internal consistency (Cronbach's α) for the checklist and the GRS was 0.74 and 0.97, respectively. Median scores with interquartile range on the checklist and GRS for novices, experienced trainees, and experts were 0.69 (0.58-0.86), 0.85 (0.63-0.89), and 0.85 (0.81-0.91) and 3.1 (2.5-3.8), 3.7 (2.2-4.3) and 4.6 (4.4-4.9), respectively. Jonckheere's test showed that the median checklist and GRS score increased with performer expertise ( P = .04 and .002, respectively). This study provides validity evidence for the NEVAT to support its use as a standardized method of evaluating neuroendoscopic competence during simulation-based training. Copyright © 2016 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

In-Hospital Risk Prediction for Post-stroke Depression. Development and Validation of the Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thóra Hafsteinsdóttir; Roelof G.A. Ettema; Diederick Grobbee; Prof. Dr. Marieke J. Schuurmans; Janneke van Man-van Ginkel; Eline Lindeman

2013-01-01

Background and Purpose—The timely detection of post-stroke depression is complicated by a decreasing length of hospital stay. Therefore, the Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale was developed and validated. The Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale is a clinical prediction model for the early

Hardiness scales in Iranian managers: evidence of incremental validity in relationships with the five factor model and with organizational and psychological adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghorbani, Nima; Watson, P J

2005-06-01

This study examined the incremental validity of Hardiness scales in a sample of Iranian managers. Along with measures of the Five Factor Model and of Organizational and Psychological Adjustment, Hardiness scales were administered to 159 male managers (M age = 39.9, SD = 7.5) who had worked in their organizations for 7.9 yr. (SD=5.4). Hardiness predicted greater Job Satisfaction, higher Organization-based Self-esteem, and perceptions of the work environment as being less stressful and constraining. Hardiness also correlated positively with Assertiveness, Emotional Stability, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness and negatively with Depression, Anxiety, Perceived Stress, Chance External Control, and a Powerful Others External Control. Evidence of incremental validity was obtained when the Hardiness scales supplemented the Five Factor Model in predicting organizational and psychological adjustment. These data documented the incremental validity of the Hardiness scales in a non-Western sample and thus confirmed once again that Hardiness has a relevance that extends beyond the culture in which it was developed.

Validation and Inter-comparison Against Observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, J.; Davidson, F. J. M.; Smith, G. C.; Lu, Y.; Hernandez, F.; Regnier, C.; Drevillon, M.; Ryan, A.; Martin, M.; Spindler, T. D.; Brassington, G. B.; Oke, P. R.

2016-02-01

For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well as by the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the same level of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present results from a validation against observations of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Systems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems include the Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, two systems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAM system from UK met office, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Australian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau and the Australian Navy.The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature, sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and sea ice total concentration data. Results of the inter-comparison demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. This work establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developed under the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for operations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over the next two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system and limited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparing forecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics. It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommended to JCOMM-WMO as routine validation approach for operational oceanography worldwide.

Predictive Simulation of Material Failure Using Peridynamics -- Advanced Constitutive Modeling, Verification and Validation

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-31

AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0309 Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics- advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation... Self -explanatory. 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER. Enter all unique alphanumeric report numbers assigned by the performing organization, e.g...for public release. Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics-advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation John T

Validity of Quinpirole Sensitization Rat Model of OCD: Linking Evidence from Animal and Clinical Studies.

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Stuchlik, Ales; Radostová, Dominika; Hatalova, Hana; Vales, Karel; Nekovarova, Tereza; Koprivova, Jana; Svoboda, Jan; Horacek, Jiri

2016-01-01

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a neuropsychiatric disorder with 1-3% prevalence. OCD is characterized by recurrent thoughts (obsessions) and repetitive behaviors (compulsions). The pathophysiology of OCD remains unclear, stressing the importance of pre-clinical studies. The aim of this article is to critically review a proposed animal model of OCD that is characterized by the induction of compulsive checking and behavioral sensitization to the D2/D3 dopamine agonist quinpirole. Changes in this model have been reported at the level of brain structures, neurotransmitter systems and other neurophysiological aspects. In this review, we consider these alterations in relation to the clinical manifestations in OCD, with the aim to discuss and evaluate axes of validity of this model. Our analysis shows that some axes of validity of quinpirole sensitization model (QSM) are strongly supported by clinical findings, such as behavioral phenomenology or roles of brain structures. Evidence on predictive validity is contradictory and ambiguous. It is concluded that this model is useful in the context of searching for the underlying pathophysiological basis of the disorder because of the relatively strong biological similarities with OCD.

Slip Validation and Prediction for Mars Exploration Rovers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeng Yen

2008-04-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a novel technique to validate and predict the rover slips on Martian surface for NASA’s Mars Exploration Rover mission (MER. Different from the traditional approach, the proposed method uses the actual velocity profile of the wheels and the digital elevation map (DEM from the stereo images of the terrain to formulate the equations of motion. The six wheel speed from the empirical encoder data comprises the vehicle's velocity, and the rover motion can be estimated using mixed differential and algebraic equations. Applying the discretization operator to these equations, the full kinematics state of the rover is then resolved by the configuration kinematics solution in the Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP. This method, with the proper wheel slip and sliding factors, produces accurate simulation of the Mars Exploration rovers, which have been validated with the earth-testing vehicle. This computational technique has been deployed to the operation of the MER rovers in the extended mission period. Particularly, it yields high quality prediction of the rover motion on high slope areas. The simulated path of the rovers has been validated using the telemetry from the onboard Visual Odometry (VisOdom. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed simulation is very effective in planning the path of the rovers on the high-slope areas.

How valid are commercially available medical simulators?

Science.gov (United States)

Stunt, JJ; Wulms, PH; Kerkhoffs, GM; Dankelman, J; van Dijk, CN; Tuijthof, GJM

2014-01-01

Background Since simulators offer important advantages, they are increasingly used in medical education and medical skills training that require physical actions. A wide variety of simulators have become commercially available. It is of high importance that evidence is provided that training on these simulators can actually improve clinical performance on live patients. Therefore, the aim of this review is to determine the availability of different types of simulators and the evidence of their validation, to offer insight regarding which simulators are suitable to use in the clinical setting as a training modality. Summary Four hundred and thirty-three commercially available simulators were found, from which 405 (94%) were physical models. One hundred and thirty validation studies evaluated 35 (8%) commercially available medical simulators for levels of validity ranging from face to predictive validity. Solely simulators that are used for surgical skills training were validated for the highest validity level (predictive validity). Twenty-four (37%) simulators that give objective feedback had been validated. Studies that tested more powerful levels of validity (concurrent and predictive validity) were methodologically stronger than studies that tested more elementary levels of validity (face, content, and construct validity). Conclusion Ninety-three point five percent of the commercially available simulators are not known to be tested for validity. Although the importance of (a high level of) validation depends on the difficulty level of skills training and possible consequences when skills are insufficient, it is advisable for medical professionals, trainees, medical educators, and companies who manufacture medical simulators to critically judge the available medical simulators for proper validation. This way adequate, safe, and affordable medical psychomotor skills training can be achieved. PMID:25342926

Validation Evidence of the Motivation for Teaching Scale in Secondary Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Abós, Ángel; Sevil, Javier; Martín-Albo, José; Aibar, Alberto; García-González, Luis

2018-04-10

Grounded in self-determination theory, the aim of this study was to develop a scale with adequate psychometric properties to assess motivation for teaching and to explain some outcomes of secondary education teachers at work. The sample comprised 584 secondary education teachers. Analyses supported the five-factor model (intrinsic motivation, identified regulation, introjected regulation, external regulation and amotivation) and indicated the presence of a continuum of self-determination. Evidence of reliability was provided by Cronbach's alpha, composite reliability and average variance extracted. Multigroup confirmatory factor analyses supported the partial invariance (configural and metric) of the scale in different sub-samples, in terms of gender and type of school. Concurrent validity was analyzed by a structural equation modeling that explained 71% of the work dedication variance and 69% of the boredom at work variance. Work dedication was positively predicted by intrinsic motivation (ß = .56, p amotivation (ß = -.49, p amotivation (ß = .68, p < .001). The Motivation for Teaching Scale in Secondary Education (Spanish acronym EME-ES, Escala de Motivación por la Enseñanza en Educación Secundaria) is discussed as a valid and reliable instrument. This is the first specific scale in the work context of secondary teachers that has integrated the five-factor structure together with their dedication and boredom at work.

Extending Validity Evidence for Multidimensional Measures of Coaching Competency

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Nicholas D.; Wolfe, Edward W.; Maier, Kimberly S.; Feltz, Deborah L.; Reckase, Mark D.

2006-01-01

This study extended validity evidence for multidimensional measures of coaching competency derived from the Coaching Competency Scale (CCS; Myers, Feltz, Maier, Wolfe, & Reckase, 2006) by examining use of the original rating scale structure and testing how measures related to satisfaction with the head coach within teams and between teams.…

Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Ryan Donald; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Greg J; Mahar, Matthew T

2015-08-01

Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74-0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg⁻¹,min⁻¹ to 8.27 ml·kg⁻¹.min⁻¹. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31-0.62; Agreement = 75.5-89.9%; F = 0.08-0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones.

Cheating Admission Self Report Scale: Evidence of Factorial Validity and Precision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valdiney Veloso Gouveia

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to adapt the Cheating Admission Self Report Scale (CASRSto the Brazilian context and collect evi-dence on factorial validity and internal consistency. 441 students participated (M=16 years, 54.6% females, randomly divided in two groups. All responded to CASRS and to demographic questions. The analysis of the main components demonstrated a bifactor structure, whose factors presented Cronbach’s alphas (α greater than .80 (G1. This structure was corroborated by means of confirmatory factor analysis (for example, CFI=.87 and RMSEA=.08. The scale was shown to be psychometrically adequate and there was evidence of factorial validity and internal consistency; the scale can be used to measure plagiarism in the academic context.

External Validation of a Prediction Model for Successful External Cephalic Version

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Kok, Marjolein; van der Steeg, Jan W.; Bais, Joke M.; Mol, Ben W.; van der Post, Joris A.

2012-01-01

We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a

Predictive validity of pre-admission assessments on medical student performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Dabaliz, Al-Awwab; Kaadan, Samy; Dabbagh, M Marwan; Barakat, Abdulaziz; Shareef, Mohammad Abrar; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Obeidat, Akef; Mohamed, Ayman

2017-11-24

To examine the predictive validity of pre-admission variables on students' performance in a medical school in Saudi Arabia. In this retrospective study, we collected admission and college performance data for 737 students in preclinical and clinical years. Data included high school scores and other standardized test scores, such as those of the National Achievement Test and the General Aptitude Test. Additionally, we included the scores of the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) and the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) exams. Those datasets were then compared with college performance indicators, namely the cumulative Grade Point Average (cGPA) and progress test, using multivariate linear regression analysis. In preclinical years, both the National Achievement Test (p=0.04, B=0.08) and TOEFL (p=0.017, B=0.01) scores were positive predictors of cGPA, whereas the General Aptitude Test (p=0.048, B=-0.05) negatively predicted cGPA. Moreover, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of progress test performance in the same group. On the other hand, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of cGPA in clinical years. Overall, cGPA strongly predict-ed students' progress test performance (p<0.001 and B=19.02). Only the National Achievement Test and TOEFL significantly predicted performance in preclinical years. However, these variables do not predict progress test performance, meaning that they do not predict the functional knowledge reflected in the progress test. We report various strengths and deficiencies in the current medical college admission criteria, and call for employing more sensitive and valid ones that predict student performance and functional knowledge, especially in the clinical years.

Validating spatiotemporal predictions of an important pest of small grains.

Science.gov (United States)

Merrill, Scott C; Holtzer, Thomas O; Peairs, Frank B; Lester, Philip J

2015-01-01

Arthropod pests are typically managed using tactics applied uniformly to the whole field. Precision pest management applies tactics under the assumption that within-field pest pressure differences exist. This approach allows for more precise and judicious use of scouting resources and management tactics. For example, a portion of a field delineated as attractive to pests may be selected to receive extra monitoring attention. Likely because of the high variability in pest dynamics, little attention has been given to developing precision pest prediction models. Here, multimodel synthesis was used to develop a spatiotemporal model predicting the density of a key pest of wheat, the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov). Spatially implicit and spatially explicit models were synthesized to generate spatiotemporal pest pressure predictions. Cross-validation and field validation were used to confirm model efficacy. A strong within-field signal depicting aphid density was confirmed with low prediction errors. Results show that the within-field model predictions will provide higher-quality information than would be provided by traditional field scouting. With improvements to the broad-scale model component, the model synthesis approach and resulting tool could improve pest management strategy and provide a template for the development of spatially explicit pest pressure models. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Bayesian Calibration, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for Predictive Modelling of Tumour Growth: A Tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Collis, Joe; Connor, Anthony J; Paczkowski, Marcin; Kannan, Pavitra; Pitt-Francis, Joe; Byrne, Helen M; Hubbard, Matthew E

2017-04-01

In this work, we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example, we calibrate the model against experimental data that are subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model.

Genomic Prediction in Animals and Plants: Simulation of Data, Validation, Reporting, and Benchmarking

Science.gov (United States)

Daetwyler, Hans D.; Calus, Mario P. L.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; de los Campos, Gustavo; Hickey, John M.

2013-01-01

The genomic prediction of phenotypes and breeding values in animals and plants has developed rapidly into its own research field. Results of genomic prediction studies are often difficult to compare because data simulation varies, real or simulated data are not fully described, and not all relevant results are reported. In addition, some new methods have been compared only in limited genetic architectures, leading to potentially misleading conclusions. In this article we review simulation procedures, discuss validation and reporting of results, and apply benchmark procedures for a variety of genomic prediction methods in simulated and real example data. Plant and animal breeding programs are being transformed by the use of genomic data, which are becoming widely available and cost-effective to predict genetic merit. A large number of genomic prediction studies have been published using both simulated and real data. The relative novelty of this area of research has made the development of scientific conventions difficult with regard to description of the real data, simulation of genomes, validation and reporting of results, and forward in time methods. In this review article we discuss the generation of simulated genotype and phenotype data, using approaches such as the coalescent and forward in time simulation. We outline ways to validate simulated data and genomic prediction results, including cross-validation. The accuracy and bias of genomic prediction are highlighted as performance indicators that should be reported. We suggest that a measure of relatedness between the reference and validation individuals be reported, as its impact on the accuracy of genomic prediction is substantial. A large number of methods were compared in example simulated and real (pine and wheat) data sets, all of which are publicly available. In our limited simulations, most methods performed similarly in traits with a large number of quantitative trait loci (QTL), whereas in traits

Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.

2015-01-01

The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

2015-01-01

The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

Teamwork assessment in internal medicine: a systematic review of validity evidence and outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Havyer, Rachel D A; Wingo, Majken T; Comfere, Nneka I; Nelson, Darlene R; Halvorsen, Andrew J; McDonald, Furman S; Reed, Darcy A

2014-06-01

Valid teamwork assessment is imperative to determine physician competency and optimize patient outcomes. We systematically reviewed published instruments assessing teamwork in undergraduate, graduate, and continuing medical education in general internal medicine and all medical subspecialties. We searched MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-process, CINAHL and PsycINFO from January 1979 through October 2012, references of included articles, and abstracts from four professional meetings. Two content experts were queried for additional studies. Included studies described quantitative tools measuring teamwork among medical students, residents, fellows, and practicing physicians on single or multi-professional (interprofessional) teams. Instrument validity and study quality were extracted using established frameworks with existing validity evidence. Two authors independently abstracted 30 % of articles and agreement was calculated. Of 12,922 citations, 178 articles describing 73 unique teamwork assessment tools met inclusion criteria. Interrater agreement was intraclass correlation coefficient 0.73 (95 % CI 0.63-0.81). Studies involved practicing physicians (142, 80 %), residents/fellows (70, 39 %), and medical students (11, 6 %). The majority (152, 85 %) assessed interprofessional teams. Studies were conducted in inpatient (77, 43 %), outpatient (42, 24 %), simulation (37, 21 %), and classroom (13, 7 %) settings. Validity evidence for the 73 tools included content (54, 74 %), internal structure (51, 70 %), relationships to other variables (25, 34 %), and response process (12, 16 %). Attitudes and opinions were the most frequently assessed outcomes. Relationships between teamwork scores and patient outcomes were directly examined for 13 (18 %) of tools. Scores from the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire and Team Climate Inventory have substantial validity evidence and have been associated with improved patient outcomes. Review is limited to quantitative assessments of teamwork in internal

Validity Evidence for the Neuro-Endoscopic Ventriculostomy Assessment Tool (NEVAT)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Breimer, Gerben E.; Haji, Faizal A.; Cinalli, Giuseppe; Hoving, Eelco W.; Drake, James M.

BACKGROUND: Growing demand for transparent and standardized methods for evaluating surgical competence prompted the construction of the Neuro-Endoscopic Ventriculostomy Assessment Tool (NEVAT). OBJECTIVE: To provide validity evidence of the NEVAT by reporting on the tool's internal structure and its

Validating Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) predictive capability using perturbed capsules

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitt, Mark; Magelssen, Glenn; Tregillis, Ian; Hsu, Scott; Bradley, Paul; Dodd, Evan; Cobble, James; Flippo, Kirk; Offerman, Dustin; Obrey, Kimberly; Wang, Yi-Ming; Watt, Robert; Wilke, Mark; Wysocki, Frederick; Batha, Steven

2009-11-01

Achieving ignition on NIF is a monumental step on the path toward utilizing fusion as a controlled energy source. Obtaining robust ignition requires accurate ICF models to predict the degradation of ignition caused by heterogeneities in capsule construction and irradiation. LANL has embarked on a project to induce controlled defects in capsules to validate our ability to predict their effects on fusion burn. These efforts include the validation of feature-driven hydrodynamics and mix in a convergent geometry. This capability is needed to determine the performance of capsules imploded under less-than-optimum conditions on future IFE facilities. LANL's recently initiated Defect Implosion Experiments (DIME) conducted at Rochester's Omega facility are providing input for these efforts. Recent simulation and experimental results will be shown.

Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Based Measures for English Learners at Varying English Proficiency Levels

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jennifer Sun; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

2016-01-01

This study examined the predictive validity of curriculum-based measures in reading for Spanish-speaking English learners (ELs) at various levels of English proficiency. Third-grade Spanish-speaking EL students were screened during the fall using DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency (DORF) and Daze. Predictive validity was examined in relation to spring…

Validation of models that predict Cesarean section after induction of labor

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhoeven, C. J. M.; Oudenaarden, A.; Hermus, M. A. A.; Porath, M. M.; Oei, S. G.; Mol, B. W. J.

2009-01-01

Objective Models for the prediction of Cesarean delivery after induction of labor can be used to improve clinical decision-making. The objective of this study was to validate two existing models, published by Peregrine et al. and Rane et al., for the prediction of Cesarean section after induction of

Prediction of flow and drawdown for the site characterization and validation site in the Stripa Mine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, J.C.S.; Mauldon, A.D.; Nelson, K.; Martel, S.; Fuller, P.; and Karasaki, K.

1992-01-01

Geophysical and hydrologic data from a location in the Stripa Mine in Sweden, called the Site Characterization and Validation (SCV) block, has been used to create a series of models for flow through the fracture network. The models can be characterized as ''equivalent discontinuum'' models. Equivalent discontinuum models are derived starting from a specified lattice or 6 ''template''. An inverse analysis called ''Simulated Annealing'' is used to make a random search through the elements of the lattice to find a configuration that can reproduce the measured responses. Evidence at Stripa points to hydrology which is dominated by fracture zones. These have been identified and located through extensive characterization efforts. Lattice templates were arranged to lie on the fracture zones identified by Black and Olsson. The fundamental goal of this project was to build a fracture flow model based an initial data set, and use this model to make predictions of the flow behavior during a new test. Then given data from the new test, predict a second test, etc. The first data set was an interference test called C1-2. Both a two-dimensional and a three-dimensional model were annealed to the C1-2 data and use this model to predict the behavior of the Simulated Drift Experiment (SDE). The SDE measured the flow into, and drawdown due to reducing the pressure in a group of 6 parallel boreholes. Then both the C1-2 and SDE data were used to predict the flow into and drawdown due to an excavation, the Validation Drift (VD), made through the boreholes. Finally, all the data was used to predict the hydrologic response to opening another hole, T1

A robust approach to QMU, validation, and conservative prediction.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Segalman, Daniel Joseph; Paez, Thomas Lee; Bauman, Lara E

2013-01-01

A systematic approach to defining margin in a manner that incorporates statistical information and accommodates data uncertainty, but does not require assumptions about specific forms of the tails of distributions is developed. This approach extends to calculations underlying validation assessment and quantitatively conservative predictions.

Incremental validity of positive orientation: predictive efficiency beyond the five-factor model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Łukasz Roland Miciuk

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Background The relation of positive orientation (a basic predisposition to think positively of oneself, one’s life and one’s future and personality traits is still disputable. The purpose of the described research was to verify the hypothesis that positive orientation has predictive efficiency beyond the five-factor model. Participants and procedure One hundred and thirty participants (at the mean age M = 24.84 completed the following questionnaires: the Self-Esteem Scale (SES, the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS, the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R, the Positivity Scale (P-SCALE, the NEO Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI, the Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCC, the Generalized Self-Efficacy Scale (GSES and the Life Engagement Test (LET. Results The introduction of positive orientation as an additional predictor in the second step of regression analyses led to better prediction of the following variables: purpose in life, self-concept clarity and generalized self-efficacy. This effect was the strongest for predicting purpose in life (i.e. 14% increment of the explained variance. Conclusions The results confirmed our hypothesis that positive orientation can be characterized by incremental validity – its inclusion in the regression model (in addition to the five main factors of personality increases the amount of explained variance. These findings may provide further evidence for the legitimacy of measuring positive orientation and personality traits separately.

Predictive validity of the Hendrich fall risk model II in an acute geriatric unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Ivziku, Dhurata; Matarese, Maria; Pedone, Claudio

2011-04-01

Falls are the most common adverse events reported in acute care hospitals, and older patients are the most likely to fall. The risk of falling cannot be completely eliminated, but it can be reduced through the implementation of a fall prevention program. A major evidence-based intervention to prevent falls has been the use of fall-risk assessment tools. Many tools have been increasingly developed in recent years, but most instruments have not been investigated regarding reliability, validity and clinical usefulness. This study intends to evaluate the predictive validity and inter-rater reliability of Hendrich fall risk model II (HFRM II) in order to identify older patients at risk of falling in geriatric units and recommend its use in clinical practice. A prospective descriptive design was used. The study was carried out in a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital. All over 65 years old patients consecutively admitted to a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital over 8-month period were enrolled. The patients enrolled were screened for the falls risk by nurses with the HFRM II within 24h of admission. The falls occurring during the patient's hospital stay were registered. Inter-rater reliability, area under the ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and time for the administration were evaluated. 179 elderly patients were included. The inter-rater reliability was 0.87 (95% CI 0.71-1.00). The administration time was about 1min. The most frequently reported risk factors were depression, incontinence, vertigo. Sensitivity and specificity were respectively 86% and 43%. The optimal cut-off score for screening at risk patients was 5 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72. The risk factors more strongly associated with falls were confusion and depression. As falls of older patients are a common problem in acute care settings it is necessary that the nurses use specific validate and reliable

The Prediction of Training Proficiency in Firefighters: A Study of Predictive Validity in Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfredo Berges

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The present study provides results of criterion validity in the selection of firefighters in Spain. The predictors were cognitive skills, job knowledge, and physical aptitudes, and the criterion was training proficiency. The process involves 639 candidates, but only 44 complete successfully the selection process. Our results support previous evidence showing that general cognitive ability is the best predictor of training proficiency, with an operational validity of .57. With respect to the other predictors, job knowledge presented an operational validity of .55 and physical tests of .49. In addition, multiple regression analysis showed that cognitive aptitude explains 33% of the variance, but when physical aptitudes are included the explained variance increases to 50%. If we also add job knowledge, explained variance increases to 55%. Our study offers recent results of criterion validity in a barely investigated job, gathered in a country other than the one where prior research had been carried out.

Preventing patient absenteeism: validation of a predictive overbooking model.

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Mark W; Cohen, Samuel; Wang, Hank; Kaung, Aung; Patel, Anish; Tashjian, Vartan; Williams, Demetrius L; Martinez, Bibiana; Spiegel, Brennan M R

2015-12-01

To develop a model that identifies patients at high risk for missing scheduled appointments ("no-shows" and cancellations) and to project the impact of predictive overbooking in a gastrointestinal endoscopy clinic-an exemplar resource-intensive environment with a high no-show rate. We retrospectively developed an algorithm that uses electronic health record (EHR) data to identify patients who do not show up to their appointments. Next, we prospectively validated the algorithm at a Veterans Administration healthcare network clinic. We constructed a multivariable logistic regression model that assigned a no-show risk score optimized by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Based on these scores, we created a calendar of projected open slots to offer to patients and compared the daily performance of predictive overbooking with fixed overbooking and typical "1 patient, 1 slot" scheduling. Data from 1392 patients identified several predictors of no-show, including previous absenteeism, comorbid disease burden, and current diagnoses of mood and substance use disorders. The model correctly classified most patients during the development (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.80) and validation phases (AUC = 0.75). Prospective testing in 1197 patients found that predictive overbooking averaged 0.51 unused appointments per day versus 6.18 for typical booking (difference = -5.67; 95% CI, -6.48 to -4.87; P < .0001). Predictive overbooking could have increased service utilization from 62% to 97% of capacity, with only rare clinic overflows. Information from EHRs can accurately predict whether patients will no-show. This method can be used to overbook appointments, thereby maximizing service utilization while staying within clinic capacity.

Incremental Validity of Personality Measures in Predicting Underwater Performance and Adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Colodro, Joaquín; Garcés-de-Los-Fayos, Enrique J; López-García, Juan J; Colodro-Conde, Lucía

2015-03-17

Intelligence and personality traits are currently considered effective predictors of human behavior and job performance. However, there are few studies about their relevance in the underwater environment. Data from a sample of military personnel performing scuba diving courses were analyzed with regression techniques, testing the contribution of individual differences and ascertaining the incremental validity of the personality in an environment with extreme psychophysical demands. The results confirmed the incremental validity of personality traits (ΔR 2 = .20, f 2 = .25) over the predictive contribution of general mental ability (ΔR 2 = .07, f 2 = .08) in divers' performance. Moreover, personality (R(L)2 = .34) also showed a higher validity to predict underwater adaptation than general mental ability ( R(L)2 = .09). The ROC curve indicated 86% of the maximum possible discrimination power for the prediction of underwater adaptation, AUC = .86, p personality traits as predictors of an effective response to the changing circumstances of military scuba diving. They also may improve the understanding of the behavioral effects and psychophysiological complications of diving and can also provide guidance for psychological intervention and prevention of risk in this extreme environment.

Predictive validity of callous-unemotional traits measured in early adolescence with respect to multiple antisocial outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, Robert J; Witkiewitz, Katie; Kotler, Julie S

2010-11-01

This study investigated the predictive validity of youth callous-unemotional (CU) traits, as measured in early adolescence (Grade 7) by the Antisocial Process Screening Device (APSD; Frick & Hare, 2001), in a longitudinal sample (N = 754). Antisocial outcomes, assessed in adolescence and early adulthood, included self-reported general delinquency from 7th grade through 2 years post-high school, self-reported serious crimes through 2 years post-high school, juvenile and adult arrest records through 1 year post-high school, and antisocial personality disorder symptoms and diagnosis at 2 years post-high school. CU traits measured in 7th grade were highly predictive of 5 of the 6 antisocial outcomes-general delinquency, juvenile and adult arrests, and early adult antisocial personality disorder criterion count and diagnosis-over and above prior and concurrent conduct problem behavior (i.e., criterion counts of oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (criterion count). Incorporating a CU traits specifier for those with a diagnosis of conduct disorder improved the positive prediction of antisocial outcomes, with a very low false-positive rate. There was minimal evidence of moderation by sex, race, or urban/rural status. Urban/rural status moderated one finding, with being from an urban area associated with stronger relations between CU traits and adult arrests. Findings clearly support the inclusion of CU traits as a specifier for the diagnosis of conduct disorder, at least with respect to predictive validity. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

The predictive validity of ideal partner preferences: a review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Eastwick, Paul W; Luchies, Laura B; Finkel, Eli J; Hunt, Lucy L

2014-05-01

A central element of interdependence theory is that people have standards against which they compare their current outcomes, and one ubiquitous standard in the mating domain is the preference for particular attributes in a partner (ideal partner preferences). This article reviews research on the predictive validity of ideal partner preferences and presents a new integrative model that highlights when and why ideals succeed or fail to predict relational outcomes. Section 1 examines predictive validity by reviewing research on sex differences in the preference for physical attractiveness and earning prospects. Men and women reliably differ in the extent to which these qualities affect their romantic evaluations of hypothetical targets. Yet a new meta-analysis spanning the attraction and relationships literatures (k = 97) revealed that physical attractiveness predicted romantic evaluations with a moderate-to-strong effect size (r = ∼.40) for both sexes, and earning prospects predicted romantic evaluations with a small effect size (r = ∼.10) for both sexes. Sex differences in the correlations were small (r difference = .03) and uniformly nonsignificant. Section 2 reviews research on individual differences in ideal partner preferences, drawing from several theoretical traditions to explain why ideals predict relational evaluations at different relationship stages. Furthermore, this literature also identifies alternative measures of ideal partner preferences that have stronger predictive validity in certain theoretically sensible contexts. Finally, a discussion highlights a new framework for conceptualizing the appeal of traits, the difference between live and hypothetical interactions, and the productive interplay between mating research and broader psychological theories.

An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

2003-07-01

Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

What should we mean by empirical validation in hypnotherapy: evidence-based practice in clinical hypnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Alladin, Assen; Sabatini, Linda; Amundson, Jon K

2007-04-01

This paper briefly surveys the trend of and controversy surrounding empirical validation in psychotherapy. Empirical validation of hypnotherapy has paralleled the practice of validation in psychotherapy and the professionalization of clinical psychology, in general. This evolution in determining what counts as evidence for bona fide clinical practice has gone from theory-driven clinical approaches in the 1960s and 1970s through critical attempts at categorization of empirically supported therapies in the 1990s on to the concept of evidence-based practice in 2006. Implications of this progression in professional psychology are discussed in the light of hypnosis's current quest for validation and empirical accreditation.

Validity of a Manual Soft Tissue Profile Prediction Method Following Mandibular Setback Osteotomy

OpenAIRE

Kolokitha, Olga-Elpis

2007-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the validity of a manual cephalometric method used for predicting the post-operative soft tissue profiles of patients who underwent mandibular setback surgery and compare it to a computerized cephalometric prediction method (Dentofacial Planner). Lateral cephalograms of 18 adults with mandibular prognathism taken at the end of pre-surgical orthodontics and approximately one year after surgery were used. Methods To test the validity of the manu...

Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.

2013-01-01

This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a

Review and evaluation of performance measures for survival prediction models in external validation settings

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M. Shafiqur Rahman

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background When developing a prediction model for survival data it is essential to validate its performance in external validation settings using appropriate performance measures. Although a number of such measures have been proposed, there is only limited guidance regarding their use in the context of model validation. This paper reviewed and evaluated a wide range of performance measures to provide some guidelines for their use in practice. Methods An extensive simulation study based on two clinical datasets was conducted to investigate the performance of the measures in external validation settings. Measures were selected from categories that assess the overall performance, discrimination and calibration of a survival prediction model. Some of these have been modified to allow their use with validation data, and a case study is provided to describe how these measures can be estimated in practice. The measures were evaluated with respect to their robustness to censoring and ease of interpretation. All measures are implemented, or are straightforward to implement, in statistical software. Results Most of the performance measures were reasonably robust to moderate levels of censoring. One exception was Harrell’s concordance measure which tended to increase as censoring increased. Conclusions We recommend that Uno’s concordance measure is used to quantify concordance when there are moderate levels of censoring. Alternatively, Gönen and Heller’s measure could be considered, especially if censoring is very high, but we suggest that the prediction model is re-calibrated first. We also recommend that Royston’s D is routinely reported to assess discrimination since it has an appealing interpretation. The calibration slope is useful for both internal and external validation settings and recommended to report routinely. Our recommendation would be to use any of the predictive accuracy measures and provide the corresponding predictive

The predictive validity of safety climate.

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Johnson, Stephen E

2007-01-01

Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group

A Reliable and Valid Survey to Predict a Patient’s Gagging Intensity

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Casey M. Hearing

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to devise a reliable and valid survey to predict the intensity of someone’s gag reflex. Material and Methods: A 10-question Predictive Gagging Survey was created, refined, and tested on 59 undergraduate participants. The questions focused on risk factors and experiences that would indicate the presence and strength of someone’s gag reflex. Reliability was assessed by administering the survey to a group of 17 participants twice, with 3 weeks separating the two administrations. Finally, the survey was given to 25 dental patients. In these cases, patients completed an informed consent form, filled out the survey, and then had a maxillary impression taken while their gagging response was quantified from 1 to 5 on the Fiske and Dickinson Gagging Intensity Index. Results: There was a moderate positive correlation between the Predictive Gagging Survey and Fiske and Dickinson’s Gagging Severity Index, r = +0.64, demonstrating the survey’s validity. Furthermore, the test-retest reliability was r = +0.96, demonstrating the survey’s reliability. Conclusions: The Predictive Gagging Survey is a 10-question survey about gag-related experiences and behaviours. We established that it is a reliable and valid method to assess the strength of someone’s gag reflex.

Validations and improvements of airfoil trailing-edge noise prediction models using detailed experimental data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamruzzaman, M.; Lutz, Th.; Würz, W.

2012-01-01

This paper describes an extensive assessment and a step by step validation of different turbulent boundary-layer trailing-edge noise prediction schemes developed within the European Union funded wind energy project UpWind. To validate prediction models, measurements of turbulent boundary-layer pr...... with measurements in the frequency region higher than 1 kHz, whereas they over-predict the sound pressure level in the low-frequency region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.......-layer properties such as two-point turbulent velocity correlations, the spectra of the associated wall pressure fluctuations and the emitted trailing-edge far-field noise were performed in the laminar wind tunnel of the Institute of Aerodynamics and Gas Dynamics, University of Stuttgart. The measurements were...... carried out for a NACA 643-418 airfoil, at Re  =  2.5 ×106, angle of attack of −6° to 6°. Numerical results of different prediction schemes are extensively validated and discussed elaborately. The investigations on the TNO-Blake noise prediction model show that the numerical wall pressure fluctuation...

Evidences of validity and reliability of the Luria-Nebraska Test for Children

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Ricardo Franco de Lima

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract This paper aimed to verify evidences of validity and reliability of Luria-Nebraska Test for Children (TLN-C, in Portuguese. Three hundred eighty-seven students aged 6–13 years old, with learning difficulties, comprised the study. They were assessed with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-III and TLN-C; and effect of age differences, as well as accuracy rating by internal consistency were investigated. Age effects were found for all subtests and in the general score, except for receptive speech subtest, even when total IQ effect was controlled. Reliability analysis had satisfactory results (0.79. The TLN-C showed evidences of validity and reliability. Receptive speech subtest requires revision.

Predictive Validity of DSM-IV Oppositional Defiant and Conduct Disorders in Clinically Referred Preschoolers

Science.gov (United States)

Keenan, Kate; Boeldt, Debra; Chen, Diane; Coyne, Claire; Donald, Radiah; Duax, Jeanne; Hart, Katherine; Perrott, Jennifer; Strickland, Jennifer; Danis, Barbara; Hill, Carri; Davis, Shante; Kampani, Smita; Humphries, Marisha

2011-01-01

Background: Diagnostic validity of oppositional defiant and conduct disorders (ODD and CD) for preschoolers has been questioned based on concerns regarding the ability to differentiate normative, transient disruptive behavior from clinical symptoms. Data on concurrent validity have accumulated, but predictive validity is limited. Predictive…

How valid are commercially available medical simulators?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stunt JJ

2014-10-01

Full Text Available JJ Stunt,1 PH Wulms,2 GM Kerkhoffs,1 J Dankelman,2 CN van Dijk,1 GJM Tuijthof1,2 1Orthopedic Research Center Amsterdam, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; 2Department of Biomechanical Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical, Materials and Maritime Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands Background: Since simulators offer important advantages, they are increasingly used in medical education and medical skills training that require physical actions. A wide variety of simulators have become commercially available. It is of high importance that evidence is provided that training on these simulators can actually improve clinical performance on live patients. Therefore, the aim of this review is to determine the availability of different types of simulators and the evidence of their validation, to offer insight regarding which simulators are suitable to use in the clinical setting as a training modality. Summary: Four hundred and thirty-three commercially available simulators were found, from which 405 (94% were physical models. One hundred and thirty validation studies evaluated 35 (8% commercially available medical simulators for levels of validity ranging from face to predictive validity. Solely simulators that are used for surgical skills training were validated for the highest validity level (predictive validity. Twenty-four (37% simulators that give objective feedback had been validated. Studies that tested more powerful levels of validity (concurrent and predictive validity were methodologically stronger than studies that tested more elementary levels of validity (face, content, and construct validity. Conclusion: Ninety-three point five percent of the commercially available simulators are not known to be tested for validity. Although the importance of (a high level of validation depends on the difficulty level of skills training and possible consequences when skills are

External Validation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity of the Modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity Scoring System to Predict Stone-Free Status After Retrograde Intrarenal Surgery.

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Park, Juhyun; Kang, Minyong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Oh, Sohee; Lee, Jeong Woo; Lee, Seung Bae; Son, Hwancheol; Jeong, Hyeon; Cho, Sung Yong

2015-08-01

The modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity scoring system (S-ReSC-R) for retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) was developed as a tool to predict stone-free rate (SFR) after RIRS. We externally validated the S-ReSC-R. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients who underwent RIRS. The S-ReSC-R was assigned from 1 to 12 according to the location and number of sites involved. The stone-free status was defined as no evidence of a stone or with clinically insignificant residual fragment stones less than 2 mm. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities were evaluated. Statistical performance of the prediction model was assessed by its predictive accuracy, predictive probability, and clinical usefulness. Overall SFR was 73.0%. The SFRs were 86.7%, 70.2%, and 48.6% in low-score (1-2), intermediate-score (3-4), and high-score (5-12) groups, respectively (pR revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.731 (95% CI 0.650-0.813). The AUC of the three-titered S-ReSC-R was 0.701 (95% CI 0.609-0.794). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probability of SFR had a concordance comparable to that of observed frequency. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test revealed a p-value of 0.01 for the S-ReSC-R and 0.90 for the three-titered S-ReSC-R. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities revealed an almost perfect level of agreement. The present study proved the predictive value of S-ReSC-R to predict SFR following RIRS in an independent cohort. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities confirmed that S-ReSC-R was reliable and valid.

Predictive Validity of Explicit and Implicit Threat Overestimation in Contamination Fear

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Jennifer S.; Teachman, Bethany A.

2012-01-01

We examined the predictive validity of explicit and implicit measures of threat overestimation in relation to contamination-fear outcomes using structural equation modeling. Undergraduate students high in contamination fear (N = 56) completed explicit measures of contamination threat likelihood and severity, as well as looming vulnerability cognitions, in addition to an implicit measure of danger associations with potential contaminants. Participants also completed measures of contamination-fear symptoms, as well as subjective distress and avoidance during a behavioral avoidance task, and state looming vulnerability cognitions during an exposure task. The latent explicit (but not implicit) threat overestimation variable was a significant and unique predictor of contamination fear symptoms and self-reported affective and cognitive facets of contamination fear. On the contrary, the implicit (but not explicit) latent measure predicted behavioral avoidance (at the level of a trend). Results are discussed in terms of differential predictive validity of implicit versus explicit markers of threat processing and multiple fear response systems. PMID:24073390

Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Onland, Wes; Debray, Thomas P.; Laughon, Matthew M.; Miedema, Martijn; Cools, Filip; Askie, Lisa M.; Asselin, Jeanette M.; Calvert, Sandra A.; Courtney, Sherry E.; Dani, Carlo; Durand, David J.; Marlow, Neil; Peacock, Janet L.; Pillow, J. Jane; Soll, Roger F.; Thome, Ulrich H.; Truffert, Patrick; Schreiber, Michael D.; van Reempts, Patrick; Vendettuoli, Valentina; Vento, Giovanni; van Kaam, Anton H.; Moons, Karel G.; Offringa, Martin

2013-01-01

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a common complication of preterm birth. Very different models using clinical parameters at an early postnatal age to predict BPD have been developed with little extensive quantitative validation. The objective of this study is to review and validate clinical

Validation of Likelihood Ratio Methods Used for Forensic Evidence Evaluation: Application in Forensic Fingerprints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haraksim, Rudolf

2014-01-01

In this chapter the Likelihood Ratio (LR) inference model will be introduced, the theoretical aspects of probabilities will be discussed and the validation framework for LR methods used for forensic evidence evaluation will be presented. Prior to introducing the validation framework, following

GMAT versus Alternatives: Predictive Validity Evidence from Central Europe and the Middle East

Science.gov (United States)

Koys, Daniel

2010-01-01

The author found that the GPA at the end of the MBA program is most accurately predicted by the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) and the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL). MBA GPA is also predicted, though less accurately, by the Scholastic Level Exam, a mathematics test, undergraduate GPA, and previous career progression. If…

External validation of a biomarker and clinical prediction model for hospital mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Zhiguo; Wickersham, Nancy; Kangelaris, Kirsten N; May, Addison K; Bernard, Gordon R; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Koyama, Tatsuki; Ware, Lorraine B

2017-08-01

Mortality prediction in ARDS is important for prognostication and risk stratification. However, no prediction models have been independently validated. A combination of two biomarkers with age and APACHE III was superior in predicting mortality in the NHLBI ARDSNet ALVEOLI trial. We validated this prediction tool in two clinical trials and an observational cohort. The validation cohorts included 849 patients from the NHLBI ARDSNet Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), 144 patients from a clinical trial of sivelestat for ARDS (STRIVE), and 545 ARDS patients from the VALID observational cohort study. To evaluate the performance of the prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model discrimination, and calibration were assessed, and recalibration methods were applied. The biomarker/clinical prediction model performed well in all cohorts. Performance was better in the clinical trials with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) in FACTT, compared to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77) in VALID, a more heterogeneous observational cohort. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) when FACTT and VALID were combined. We validated a mortality prediction model for ARDS that includes age, APACHE III, surfactant protein D, and interleukin-8 in a variety of clinical settings. Although the model performance as measured by AUC was lower than in the original model derivation cohort, the biomarker/clinical model still performed well and may be useful for risk assessment for clinical trial enrollment, an issue of increasing importance as ARDS mortality declines, and better methods are needed for selection of the most severely ill patients for inclusion.

A guideline for the validation of likelihood ratio methods used for forensic evidence evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Meuwly, Didier; Ramos, Daniel; Haraksim, Rudolf

2017-07-01

This Guideline proposes a protocol for the validation of forensic evaluation methods at the source level, using the Likelihood Ratio framework as defined within the Bayes' inference model. In the context of the inference of identity of source, the Likelihood Ratio is used to evaluate the strength of the evidence for a trace specimen, e.g. a fingermark, and a reference specimen, e.g. a fingerprint, to originate from common or different sources. Some theoretical aspects of probabilities necessary for this Guideline were discussed prior to its elaboration, which started after a workshop of forensic researchers and practitioners involved in this topic. In the workshop, the following questions were addressed: "which aspects of a forensic evaluation scenario need to be validated?", "what is the role of the LR as part of a decision process?" and "how to deal with uncertainty in the LR calculation?". The questions: "what to validate?" focuses on the validation methods and criteria and "how to validate?" deals with the implementation of the validation protocol. Answers to these questions were deemed necessary with several objectives. First, concepts typical for validation standards [1], such as performance characteristics, performance metrics and validation criteria, will be adapted or applied by analogy to the LR framework. Second, a validation strategy will be defined. Third, validation methods will be described. Finally, a validation protocol and an example of validation report will be proposed, which can be applied to the forensic fields developing and validating LR methods for the evaluation of the strength of evidence at source level under the following propositions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Predicting the 6-month risk of severe hypoglycemia among adults with diabetes: Development and external validation of a prediction model.

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Schroeder, Emily B; Xu, Stan; Goodrich, Glenn K; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

2017-07-01

To develop and externally validate a prediction model for the 6-month risk of a severe hypoglycemic event among individuals with pharmacologically treated diabetes. The development cohort consisted of 31,674 Kaiser Permanente Colorado members with pharmacologically treated diabetes (2007-2015). The validation cohorts consisted of 38,764 Kaiser Permanente Northwest members and 12,035 HealthPartners members. Variables were chosen that would be available in electronic health records. We developed 16-variable and 6-variable models, using a Cox counting model process that allows for the inclusion of multiple 6-month observation periods per person. Across the three cohorts, there were 850,992 6-month observation periods, and 10,448 periods with at least one severe hypoglycemic event. The six-variable model contained age, diabetes type, HgbA1c, eGFR, history of a hypoglycemic event in the prior year, and insulin use. Both prediction models performed well, with good calibration and c-statistics of 0.84 and 0.81 for the 16-variable and 6-variable models, respectively. In the external validation cohorts, the c-statistics were 0.80-0.84. We developed and validated two prediction models for predicting the 6-month risk of hypoglycemia. The 16-variable model had slightly better performance than the 6-variable model, but in some practice settings, use of the simpler model may be preferred. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ethical leadership: meta-analytic evidence of criterion-related and incremental validity.

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Ng, Thomas W H; Feldman, Daniel C

2015-05-01

This study examines the criterion-related and incremental validity of ethical leadership (EL) with meta-analytic data. Across 101 samples published over the last 15 years (N = 29,620), we observed that EL demonstrated acceptable criterion-related validity with variables that tap followers' job attitudes, job performance, and evaluations of their leaders. Further, followers' trust in the leader mediated the relationships of EL with job attitudes and performance. In terms of incremental validity, we found that EL significantly, albeit weakly in some cases, predicted task performance, citizenship behavior, and counterproductive work behavior-even after controlling for the effects of such variables as transformational leadership, use of contingent rewards, management by exception, interactional fairness, and destructive leadership. The article concludes with a discussion of ways to strengthen the incremental validity of EL. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Validity of childhood adiposity classification in predicting adolescent overweight and obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Huerta, Michael; Zarka, Salman; Bibi, Haim; Haviv, Jacob; Scharf, Shimon; Gdalevich, Michael

2010-05-03

Identification of children at risk for adolescent overweight can assist in targeting interventions. Uncertainty remains regarding the validity of current body mass index (BMI) reference values in predicting future risk on a population basis. This study aimed to assess the validity of current childhood adiposity classifications in predicting adolescent overweight and obesity among Israeli youth. Historical cohort study. School-based childhood health studies and adolescent physical examinations. A total of 3 163 subjects surveyed first at age 8-15 and again at age 17-19. Age, sex, height, weight and BMI. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and relative risk of childhood adiposity classification. Childhood overweight and obesity showed low sensitivity and high specificity for predicting adolescent overweight and obesity. Positive predictive values were low and varied by age and sex, but negative predictive values were consistently high in both sexes and all ages (range 0.85-0.99). After adjusting for age and sex, both childhood overweight and obesity substantially increased the risk of adolescent overweight (relative risk [RR] 7.03 and 7.20, respectively) and adolescent obesity (RR 24.34 and 28.41, respectively). Childhood overweight and obesity are strong risk factors for adolescent overweight and obesity among Israeli youth. Normal weight children were at very low risk for adolescent overweight. These findings suggest that population-based health promotion aimed at maintaining normal weight among children should be given preference over risk-guided approaches targeting weight reduction among obese children.

Development and validation of a predictive model for excessive postpartum blood loss: A retrospective, cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubio-Álvarez, Ana; Molina-Alarcón, Milagros; Arias-Arias, Ángel; Hernández-Martínez, Antonio

2018-03-01

postpartum haemorrhage is one of the leading causes of maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite the use of uterotonics agents as preventive measure, it remains a challenge to identify those women who are at increased risk of postpartum bleeding. to develop and to validate a predictive model to assess the risk of excessive bleeding in women with vaginal birth. retrospective cohorts study. "Mancha-Centro Hospital" (Spain). the elaboration of the predictive model was based on a derivation cohort consisting of 2336 women between 2009 and 2011. For validation purposes, a prospective cohort of 953 women between 2013 and 2014 were employed. Women with antenatal fetal demise, multiple pregnancies and gestations under 35 weeks were excluded METHODS: we used a multivariate analysis with binary logistic regression, Ridge Regression and areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to determine the predictive ability of the proposed model. there was 197 (8.43%) women with excessive bleeding in the derivation cohort and 63 (6.61%) women in the validation cohort. Predictive factors in the final model were: maternal age, primiparity, duration of the first and second stages of labour, neonatal birth weight and antepartum haemoglobin levels. Accordingly, the predictive ability of this model in the derivation cohort was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.93), while it remained 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.92) in the validation cohort. this predictive model is proved to have an excellent predictive ability in the derivation cohort, and its validation in a latter population equally shows a good ability for prediction. This model can be employed to identify women with a higher risk of postpartum haemorrhage. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Persistent Back Symptoms by Psychosocial Risk Factors: Validity Criteria for the ÖMPSQ and the HKF-R 10 in Germany.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Riewe

Full Text Available 10% of all individuals in Germany develop persistent symptoms due to nonspecific back pain (NSBP causing up to 90% of direct and indirect expenses for health care systems. Evidence indicates a strong relationship between chronic nonspecific back pain and psychosocial risk factors. The Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (ÖMPSQ and the German Heidelberger Kurzfragebogen Rückenschmerz (HKF-R 10 are deemed valid in prediction of persistent pain, functional loss or amount of sick leave. This study provides and discusses validity criteria for these questionnaires using ROC-curve analyses. Quality measurements included sensitivity and specificity, likelihood-ratio related test-efficiencies and clinical utility in regard to predictive values.265 patients recruited from primary and secondary care units completed both questionnaires during the same timeframe. From the total, 133 patients returned a 6-month follow-up questionnaire to assess the validity criteria for outcomes of pain, function and sick leave.Based on heterogeneous cut-offs for the ÖMPSQ, sensitivity and specificity were moderate for outcome of pain (72%/75%. Very high sensitivity was observed for function (97%/57% and high specificity for sick leave (63%/85%. The latter also applied to the HKF-R 10 (pain 50%/84%. Proportions between sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced except for the ÖMPSQ outcome of pain. Likelihood-ratios and positive predictive values ranged from low to moderate.Although the ÖMPSQ may be considered useful in identification of long-term functional loss or pain, over- and underestimation of patients at risk of chronic noncspecific back pain led to limited test-efficiencies and clinical utility for both questionnaires. Further studies are required to quantify the predictive validity of both questionnaires in Germany.

Comorbidity predicts poor prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Development and validation of a predictive score model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Rui; Chen, Xiao-Zhong; Chen, Lei; Jiang, Feng; Tang, Ling-Long; Mao, Yan-Ping; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Li, Wen-Fei; Liu, Li-Zhi; Tian, Li; Lin, Ai-Hua; Ma, Jun

2015-01-01

Background and purpose: The impact of comorbidity on prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is poorly characterized. Material and methods: Using the Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 (ACE-27) system, we assessed the prognostic value of comorbidity and developed, validated and confirmed a predictive score model in a training set (n = 658), internal validation set (n = 658) and independent set (n = 652) using area under the receiver operating curve analysis. Results: Comorbidity was present in 40.4% of 1968 patients (mild, 30.1%; moderate, 9.1%; severe, 1.2%). Compared to an ACE-27 score ⩽1, patients with an ACE-27 score >1 in the training set had shorter overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) (both P < 0.001), similar results were obtained in the other sets (P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, ACE-27 score was a significant independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS. The combined risk score model including ACE-27 had superior prognostic value to TNM stage alone in the internal validation set (0.70 vs. 0.66; P = 0.02), independent set (0.73 vs. 0.67; P = 0.002) and all patients (0.71 vs. 0.67; P < 0.001). Conclusions: Comorbidity significantly affects prognosis, especially in stages II and III, and should be incorporated into the TNM staging system for NPC. Assessment of comorbidity may improve outcome prediction and help tailor individualized treatment

Predictive Validity And Usefulness Of Visual Scanning Task In Hiv ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The visual scanning task is a useful screening tool for brain damage in HIV/AIDS by inference from impairment of visual information processing and disturbances in perceptual mental strategies. There is progressive neuro-cognitive decline as the disease worsens. Keywords: brain, cognition, HIV/AIDS, predictive validity, ...

External validation of a clinical prediction rule to predict full recovery and ongoing moderate/severe disability following acute whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, Carrie; Hendrikz, Joan; Jull, Gwendolen; Elliott, James; Sterling, Michele

2015-04-01

Retrospective secondary analysis of data. To investigate the external validity of the whiplash clinical prediction rule (CPR). We recently derived a whiplash CPR to consolidate previously established prognostic factors for poor recovery from a whiplash injury and predicted 2 recovery pathways. Prognostic factors for full recovery were being less than 35 years of age and having an initial Neck Disability Index (NDI) score of 32% or less. Prognostic factors for ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability were being 35 years of age or older, having an initial NDI score of 40% or more, and the presence of hyperarousal symptoms. Validation is required to confirm the reproducibility and accuracy of this CPR. Clinician feedback on the usefulness of the CPR is also important to gauge acceptability. A secondary analysis of data from 101 individuals with acute whiplash-associated disorder who had previously participated in either a randomized controlled clinical trial or prospective cohort study was performed using accuracy statistics. Full recovery was defined as NDI score at 6 months of 10% or less, and ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability were defined as an NDI score at 6 months of 30% or greater. In addition, a small sample of physical therapists completed an anonymous survey on the clinical acceptability and usability of the tool. Results The positive predictive value of ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability was 90.9% in the validation cohort, and the positive predictive value of full recovery was 80.0%. Surveyed physical therapists reported that the whiplash CPR was simple, understandable, would be easy to use, and was an acceptable prognostic tool. External validation of the whiplash CPR confirmed the reproducibility and accuracy of this dual-pathway tool for individuals with acute whiplash-associated disorder. Further research is needed to assess prospective validation, the impact of inclusion on practice, and to examine the efficacy of linking treatment

Validation of the online prediction tool PREDICT v. 2.0 in the Dutch breast cancer population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maaren, M.C. van; Steenbeek, C.D. van; Pharoah, P.D.; Witteveen, A.; Sonke, G.S.; Strobbe, L.J.A.; Poortmans, P.; Siesling, S.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: PREDICT version 2.0 is increasingly used to estimate prognosis in breast cancer. This study aimed to validate this tool in specific prognostic subgroups in the Netherlands. METHODS: All operated women with non-metastatic primary invasive breast cancer, diagnosed in 2005, were selected

Validation of the online prediction tool PREDICT v. 2.0 in the Dutch breast cancer population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Maaren, M. C.; van Steenbeek, C. D.; Pharoah, P. D.P.; Witteveen, A.; Sonke, Gabe S.; Strobbe, L.J.A.; Poortmans, P.M.P.; Siesling, S.

2017-01-01

Background PREDICT version 2.0 is increasingly used to estimate prognosis in breast cancer. This study aimed to validate this tool in specific prognostic subgroups in the Netherlands. Methods All operated women with non-metastatic primary invasive breast cancer, diagnosed in 2005, were selected from

The Predictive Validity of the ABFM's In-Training Examination.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Thomas R; Li, Zijia; Peabody, Michael R; Lybarger, Melanie; Royal, Kenneth; Puffer, James C

2015-05-01

Our objective was to examine the predictive validity of the American Board of Family Medicine's (ABFM) In-Training Examination (ITE) with regard to predicting outcomes on the ABFM certification examination. This study used a repeated measures design across three levels of medical training (PGY1--PGY2, PGY2--PGY3, and PGY3--initial certification) with three different cohorts (2010--2011, 2011--2012, and 2012--2013) to examine: (1) how well the residents' ITE scores correlated with their test scores in the following year, (2) what the typical score increase was across training years, and (3) what was the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the PGY3 scores with regard to predicting future results on the MC-FP Examination. ITE scores generally correlate at about .7 with the following year's ITE or with the following year's certification examination. The mean growth from PGY1 to PGY2 was 52 points, from PGY2 to PGY3 was 34 points, and from PGY3 to initial certification was 27 points. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were .91, .47, .96, and .27, respectively. The ITE is a useful predictor of future ITE and initial certification examination performance.

Validity Evidence for the Reduced Version of the Young Parenting Inventory (YPI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felipe Valentini

2013-09-01

Full Text Available To gain more insight in family processes, psychometrically tests are required. The present study aimed to adapt a reduced version of the Young Parenting Inventory (YPI to the Portuguese language and to obtain evidence of its validity. The instrument was administered to a sample of 920 persons (59% female with an average age of 21.3 years. Exploratory factor analysis indicated the existence of five factors explaining approximately 45% of the variance. Confirmatory factor analysis showed fit indices above.80. In comparison with other models, the five factor model showed a better fit to the data. Between the YPI and Familiograma (another test of family processes moderate correlations were observed. The results of this study suggest satisfactory evidence of the validity for the YPI in Brazil.

A Multi-Center Prospective Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for Severe Clostridium difficile Infection.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Na, Xi

2015-04-23

Prediction of severe clinical outcomes in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is important to inform management decisions for optimum patient care. Currently, treatment recommendations for CDI vary based on disease severity but validated methods to predict severe disease are lacking. The aim of the study was to derive and validate a clinical prediction tool for severe outcomes in CDI.

easyCBM® Reading Criterion Related Validity Evidence: Grades K-1. Technical Report #1309

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Cheng-Fei; Alonzo, Julie; Tindal, Gerald

2013-01-01

In this technical report, we present the results of a study to gather criterion-related evidence for Grade K-1 easyCBM® reading measures. We used correlations to examine the relation between the easyCBM® measures and other published measures with known reliability and validity evidence, including the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy…

Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett's esophagus in an Australian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Ireland, Colin J; Gordon, Andrea L; Thompson, Sarah K; Watson, David I; Whiteman, David C; Reed, Richard L; Esterman, Adrian

2018-01-01

Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett's esophagus (BE). While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.87). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was p =0.14. Minimizing false positives and false negatives, the model achieved a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 73%. This study has validated a risk prediction model for BE that has a higher sensitivity than previous models.

Predicting AKI in emergency admissions: an external validation study of the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS).

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Hodgson, L E; Dimitrov, B D; Roderick, P J; Venn, R; Forni, L G

2017-03-08

Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is associated with a high risk of mortality. Prediction models or rules may identify those most at risk of HA-AKI. This study externally validated one of the few clinical prediction rules (CPRs) derived in a general medicine cohort using clinical information and data from an acute hospitals electronic system on admission: the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS). External validation in a single UK non-specialist acute hospital (2013-2015, 12 554 episodes); four cohorts: adult medical and general surgical populations, with and without a known preadmission baseline serum creatinine (SCr). Performance assessed by discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCROC) and calibration. HA-AKI incidence within 7 days (kidney disease: improving global outcomes (KDIGO) change in SCr) was 8.1% (n=409) of medical patients with known baseline SCr, 6.6% (n=141) in those without a baseline, 4.9% (n=204) in surgical patients with baseline and 4% (n=49) in those without. Across the four cohorts AUCROC were: medical with known baseline 0.65 (95% CIs 0.62 to 0.67) and no baseline 0.71 (0.67 to 0.75), surgical with baseline 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) and no baseline 0.68 (0.58 to 0.75). For calibration, in medicine and surgical cohorts with baseline SCr, Hosmer-Lemeshow p values were non-significant, suggesting acceptable calibration. In the medical cohort, at a cut-off of five points on the APS to predict HA-AKI, positive predictive value was 16% (13-18%) and negative predictive value 94% (93-94%). Of medical patients with HA-AKI, those with an APS ≥5 had a significantly increased risk of death (28% vs 18%, OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.9), p=0.015). On external validation the APS on admission shows moderate discrimination and acceptable calibration to predict HA-AKI and may be useful as a severity marker when HA-AKI occurs. Harnessing linked data from primary care may be one way to achieve more accurate

Parent- and Self-Reported Dimensions of Oppositionality in Youth: Construct Validity, Concurrent Validity, and the Prediction of Criminal Outcomes in Adulthood

Science.gov (United States)

Aebi, Marcel; Plattner, Belinda; Metzke, Christa Winkler; Bessler, Cornelia; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph

2013-01-01

Background: Different dimensions of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) have been found as valid predictors of further mental health problems and antisocial behaviors in youth. The present study aimed at testing the construct, concurrent, and predictive validity of ODD dimensions derived from parent- and self-report measures. Method: Confirmatory…

Prediction of Protein–Protein Interactions by Evidence Combining Methods

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Ji-Wei Chang

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Most cellular functions involve proteins’ features based on their physical interactions with other partner proteins. Sketching a map of protein–protein interactions (PPIs is therefore an important inception step towards understanding the basics of cell functions. Several experimental techniques operating in vivo or in vitro have made significant contributions to screening a large number of protein interaction partners, especially high-throughput experimental methods. However, computational approaches for PPI predication supported by rapid accumulation of data generated from experimental techniques, 3D structure definitions, and genome sequencing have boosted the map sketching of PPIs. In this review, we shed light on in silico PPI prediction methods that integrate evidence from multiple sources, including evolutionary relationship, function annotation, sequence/structure features, network topology and text mining. These methods are developed for integration of multi-dimensional evidence, for designing the strategies to predict novel interactions, and for making the results consistent with the increase of prediction coverage and accuracy.

Predictive validity of the comprehensive basic science examination mean score for assessment of medical students' performance

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Firouz Behboudi

2002-04-01

Full Text Available Background Medical education curriculum improvements can be achieved bye valuating students performance. Medical students have to pass two undergraduate comprehensive examinations, basic science and preinternship, in Iran. Purpose To measure validity of the students' mean score in comprehensive basic science exam (CBSE for predicting their performance in later curriculum phases. Methods This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on 95 (38 women and 55 men Guilan medical university students. Their admission to the university was 81% by regional quota and 12% by shaheed and other organizations' share. They first enrolled in 1994 and were able to pass CBS£ at first try. Data on gender, regional quota, and average grades of CBS£, PC, and CPIE were collected by a questionnaire. The calculations were done by SPSS package. Results The correlation coefficient between CBS£ and CPIE mean scores (0.65 was higher than correlation coefficient between CBS£ and PC mean scores (0.49. The predictive validity of CBS£ average grade was significant for students' performance in CPIE; however, the predictive validity of CBSE mean scores for students I pe1jormance in PC was lower. Conclusion he students' mean score in CBSE can be a good denominator for their further admission. We recommend further research to assess the predictive validity for each one of the basic courses. Keywords predictive validity, comprehensive basic exam

Validating evidence based decision making in health care

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nüssler, Emil Karl; Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Håkonsson, Dorthe Døjbak

Surgeons who perform prolapse surgeries face the dilemma of choosing to use mesh, with its assumed benefits, and the risks associated with mesh. In this paper, we examine whether decisions to use mesh is evidence based. Based on data of 30,398 patients from the Swedish National Quality Register o...... are highly influenced by the geographical placement of surgeons. Therfore, decisions to use mesh are boundedly rationality, rather than rational.......Surgeons who perform prolapse surgeries face the dilemma of choosing to use mesh, with its assumed benefits, and the risks associated with mesh. In this paper, we examine whether decisions to use mesh is evidence based. Based on data of 30,398 patients from the Swedish National Quality Register...... of Gynecological Surgery we examine factors related to decisions to use mesh. Our results indicate that decisions to use mesh are not evidence based, and cannot be explained neither by FDA safety communications, nor by medical conditions usually assumed to predict its usage. Instead, decisions to use mesh...

easyCBM® Reading Criterion Related Validity Evidence: Grades 2-5. Technical Report #1310

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Cheng-Fei; Alonzo, Julie; Tindal, Gerald

2013-01-01

In this technical report, we present the results of a study to gather criterion-related evidence for Grade 2-5 easyCBM® reading measures. We used correlations to examine the relation between the easyCBM® measures and other published measures with known reliability and validity evidence, including the Gates-MacGinitie Reading Tests and the Dynamic…

The predictive and discriminant validity of the zone of proximal development.

Science.gov (United States)

Meijer, J; Elshout, J J

2001-03-01

Dynamic measurement procedures are supposed to uncover the zone of proximal development and to increase predictive validity in comparison to conventional, static measurement procedures. Two alternative explanations for the discrepancies between static and dynamic measurements were investigated. The first focuses on Vygotsky's learning potential theory, the second considers the role of anxiety tendency during test taking. If test anxious tendencies are mitigated by dynamic testing procedures, in particular the availability of assistance, the concept of the zone of proximal development may be superfluous in explaining the differences between the outcomes of static and dynamic measurement. Participants were students from secondary education in the Netherlands. They were tested repeatedly in grade three as well as in grade four. Participants were between 14 and 17 years old; their average age was 15.4 years with a standard deviation of .52. Two types of mathematics tests were used in a longitudinal experiment. The first type of test consisted of open-ended items, which participants had to solve completely on their own. With the second type of test, assistance was available to participants during the test. The latter so-called learning test was conceived of as a dynamic testing procedure. Furthermore, a test anxiety questionnaire was administered repeatedly. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the data. Apart from emotionality and worry, lack of self-confidence appears to be an important constituent of test anxiety. The learning test appears to contribute to the predictive validity of conventional tests and thus a part of Vygotsky's claims were substantiated. Moreover, the mere inclusion of a test anxiety factor into an explanatory model for the gathered data is not sufficient. Apart from test anxiety and mathematical ability it is necessary to assume a factor which may be construed as mathematics learning potential. The results indicate that the observed

Validity evidence of the Social and Emotional Nationwide Assessment (SENNA 1.0 Inventory

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Gina Pancorbo

Full Text Available Abstract: Given the necessity of adequate instruments to measure socio-emotional skills, this study aimed to obtain validity evidence of the Social and Emotional Nationwide Assessment inventory (SENNA 1.0. The instrument was administered to a sample of 634 students (59% females with a mean age of 16.3 years (SD = 1.21, from eight secondary schools of the Federal District ] of Brazil. Exploratory factor analysis indicated a six factor structure that explained 42.7% of the common variance, while confirmatory factor analysis and exploratory structural equational modeling analysis showed a moderate fit to the data. Reliability coefficients of the factor scores varied between .66 and .89. The coefficients of the convergent validity with the Reduced Scale of the Big Five Personality Factors (ER5FP had a mean value of .59. In conclusion, the results indicate satisfactory evidence for the score validity of the SENNA 1.0 inventory.

An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

2017-05-22

PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age

Great Expectations: Is there Evidence for Predictive Coding in Auditory Cortex?

Science.gov (United States)

Heilbron, Micha; Chait, Maria

2017-08-04

Predictive coding is possibly one of the most influential, comprehensive, and controversial theories of neural function. While proponents praise its explanatory potential, critics object that key tenets of the theory are untested or even untestable. The present article critically examines existing evidence for predictive coding in the auditory modality. Specifically, we identify five key assumptions of the theory and evaluate each in the light of animal, human and modeling studies of auditory pattern processing. For the first two assumptions - that neural responses are shaped by expectations and that these expectations are hierarchically organized - animal and human studies provide compelling evidence. The anticipatory, predictive nature of these expectations also enjoys empirical support, especially from studies on unexpected stimulus omission. However, for the existence of separate error and prediction neurons, a key assumption of the theory, evidence is lacking. More work exists on the proposed oscillatory signatures of predictive coding, and on the relation between attention and precision. However, results on these latter two assumptions are mixed or contradictory. Looking to the future, more collaboration between human and animal studies, aided by model-based analyses will be needed to test specific assumptions and implementations of predictive coding - and, as such, help determine whether this popular grand theory can fulfill its expectations. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Experimental validation of the twins prediction program for rolling noise. Pt.2: results

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thompson, D.J.; Fodiman, P.; Mahé, H.

1996-01-01

Two extensive measurement campaigns have been carried out to validate the TWINS prediction program for rolling noise, as described in part 1 of this paper. This second part presents the experimental results of vibration and noise during train pass-bys and compares them with predictions from the

An Australian Version of the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale: Validity Evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Cerin, Ester; Leslie, Eva; Owen, Neville; Bauman, Adrian

2008-01-01

This study examined validity evidence for the Australian version of the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS-AU). A stratified two-stage cluster sampling design was used to recruit 2,650 adults from Adelaide (Australia). The sample was drawn from residential addresses within eight high-walkable and eight low-walkable suburbs matched…

Logic Brightens My Day: Evidence for Implicit Sensitivity to Logical Validity

Science.gov (United States)

Trippas, Dries; Handley, Simon J.; Verde, Michael F.; Morsanyi, Kinga

2016-01-01

A key assumption of dual process theory is that reasoning is an explicit, effortful, deliberative process. The present study offers evidence for an implicit, possibly intuitive component of reasoning. Participants were shown sentences embedded in logically valid or invalid arguments. Participants were not asked to reason but instead rated the…

What is required for the validation of in vitro assays for predicting contaminant relative bioavailability? Considerations and criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juhasz, Albert L.; Basta, Nicholas T.; Smith, Euan

2013-01-01

A number of studies have shown the potential of in vitro assays to predict contaminant in vivo relative bioavailability in order to refine human health exposure assessment. Although the term ‘validated’ has been used to describe the goodness of fit between in vivo and in vitro observations, its misuse has arisen from semantic considerations in addition to the lack of defined criteria for establishing performance validation. While several internal validation methods may be utilised, performance validation should preferably focus on assessing the agreement of model predictions with a set of data which are independent of those used to construct the model. In order to achieve robust validated predictive models, a number of parameters (e.g. size of data set, source of independent soils, contaminant concentration range, animal model, relative bioavailability endpoint) need to be considered in addition to defined criteria for establishing performance validation which are currently lacking. -- Defined criteria for establishing in vivo–in vitro performance validation are required in order to ensure robust, defensible predictive models for human health exposure assessment

The predictive and external validity of the STarT Back Tool in Danish primary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Morsø, Lars; Kent, Peter; Albert, Hanne B; Hill, Jonathan C; Kongsted, Alice; Manniche, Claus

2013-08-01

The STarT Back Tool (SBT) was recently translated into Danish and its concurrent validity described. This study tested the predictive validity of the Danish SBT. Danish primary care patients (n = 344) were compared to a UK cohort. SBT subgroup validity for predicting high activity limitation at 3 months' follow-up was assessed using descriptive proportions, relative risks, AUC and odds ratios. The SBT had a statistically similar predictive ability in Danish primary care as in UK primary care. Unadjusted relative risks for poor clinical outcome on activity limitation in the Danish cohort were 2.4 (1.7-3.4) for the medium-risk subgroup and 2.8 (1.8-3.8) for the high-risk subgroup versus 3.1 (2.5-3.9) and 4.5 (3.6-5.6) for the UK cohort. Adjusting for confounders appeared to explain the lower predictive ability of the Danish high-risk group. The Danish SBT distinguished between low- and medium-risk subgroups with a similar predictive ability of the UK SBT. That distinction is useful information for informing patients about their expected prognosis and may help guiding clinicians' choice of treatment. However, cross-cultural differences in the SBT psychosocial subscale may reduce the predictive ability of the high-risk subgroup in Danish primary care.

Development and validation of a predictive equation for lean body mass in children and adolescents.

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Foster, Bethany J; Platt, Robert W; Zemel, Babette S

2012-05-01

Lean body mass (LBM) is not easy to measure directly in the field or clinical setting. Equations to predict LBM from simple anthropometric measures, which account for the differing contributions of fat and lean to body weight at different ages and levels of adiposity, would be useful to both human biologists and clinicians. To develop and validate equations to predict LBM in children and adolescents across the entire range of the adiposity spectrum. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure LBM in 836 healthy children (437 females) and linear regression was used to develop sex-specific equations to estimate LBM from height, weight, age, body mass index (BMI) for age z-score and population ancestry. Equations were validated using bootstrapping methods and in a local independent sample of 332 children and in national data collected by NHANES. The mean difference between measured and predicted LBM was - 0.12% (95% limits of agreement - 11.3% to 8.5%) for males and - 0.14% ( - 11.9% to 10.9%) for females. Equations performed equally well across the entire adiposity spectrum, as estimated by BMI z-score. Validation indicated no over-fitting. LBM was predicted within 5% of measured LBM in the validation sample. The equations estimate LBM accurately from simple anthropometric measures.

Validity-Supporting Evidence of the Self-Efficacy for Teaching Mathematics Instrument

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McGee, Jennifer R.; Wang, Chuang

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to provide evidence of reliability and validity of the Self-Efficacy for Teaching Mathematics Instrument (SETMI). Self-efficacy, as defined by Bandura, was the theoretical framework for the development of the instrument. The complex belief systems of mathematics teachers, as touted by Ernest provided insights into the…

Development and validation of an ICD-10-based disability predictive index for patients admitted to hospitals with trauma.

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Tomoki; Yasunaga, Hideo; Yamana, Hayato; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Morimura, Naoto

2018-03-01

There was no established disability predictive measurement for patients with trauma that could be used in administrative claims databases. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a diagnosis-based disability predictive index for severe physical disability at discharge using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) coding. This retrospective observational study used the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database in Japan. Patients who were admitted to hospitals with trauma and discharged alive from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2015 were included. Pediatric patients under 15 years old were excluded. Data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2013 was used for development of a disability predictive index (derivation cohort), while data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2013 to 31 March 2015 was used for the internal validation (validation cohort). The outcome of interest was severe physical disability defined as the Barthel Index score of predictive index for each patient was defined as the sum of the scores. The predictive performance of the index was validated using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in the validation cohort. The derivation cohort included 1,475,158 patients, while the validation cohort included 939,659 patients. Of the 939,659 patients, 235,382 (25.0%) were discharged with severe physical disability. The c-statistics of the disability predictive index was 0.795 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.794-0.795), while that of a model using the disability predictive index and patient baseline characteristics was 0.856 (95% CI 0.855-0.857). Severe physical disability at discharge may be well predicted with patient age, sex, CCI score, and the diagnosis-based disability predictive index in patients admitted to hospitals with trauma. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Validation of Subchannel Based CHF Prediction Model for Rod Bundles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, Dae-Hyun; Kim, Seong-Jin

2015-01-01

A large number of CHF data base were procured from various sources which included square and non-square lattice test bundles. CHF prediction accuracy was evaluated for various models including CHF lookup table method, empirical correlations, and phenomenological DNB models. The parametric effect of the mass velocity and unheated wall has been investigated from the experimental result, and incorporated into the development of local parameter CHF correlation applicable to APWR conditions. According to the CHF design criterion, the CHF should not occur at the hottest rod in the reactor core during normal operation and anticipated operational occurrences with at least a 95% probability at a 95% confidence level. This is accomplished by assuring that the minimum DNBR (Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio) in the reactor core is greater than the limit DNBR which accounts for the accuracy of CHF prediction model. The limit DNBR can be determined from the inverse of the lower tolerance limit of M/P that is evaluated from the measured-to-predicted CHF ratios for the relevant CHF data base. It is important to evaluate an adequacy of the CHF prediction model for application to the actual reactor core conditions. Validation of CHF prediction model provides the degree of accuracy inferred from the comparison of solution and data. To achieve a required accuracy for the CHF prediction model, it may be necessary to calibrate the model parameters by employing the validation results. If the accuracy of the model is acceptable, then it is applied to the real complex system with the inferred accuracy of the model. In a conventional approach, the accuracy of CHF prediction model was evaluated from the M/P statistics for relevant CHF data base, which was evaluated by comparing the nominal values of the predicted and measured CHFs. The experimental uncertainty for the CHF data was not considered in this approach to determine the limit DNBR. When a subchannel based CHF prediction model

Proteomic signature of periodontal disease in pregnancy: Predictive validity for adverse outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramchandani, Manisha; Siddiqui, Muniza; Kanwar, Raveena; Lakha, Manwinder; Phi, Linda; Giacomelli, Luca; Chiappelli, Francesco

2011-01-06

The rate of preterm birth is a public health concern worldwide because it is increasing and efforts to prevent it have failed. We report a Clinically Relevant Complex Systematic Review (CSCSR) designed to identify and evaluate the best available evidence in support of the association between periodontal status in women and pregnancy outcome of preterm low birth weight. We hypothesize that the traditional limits of research synthesis must be expanded to incorporate a translational component. As a proof-of-concept model, we propose that this CSCSR can yield greater validity of efficacy and effectiveness through supplementing its recommendations with data of the proteomic signature of periodontal disease in pregnancy, which can contribute to addressing specifically the predictive validity for adverse outcomes. For this CRCSR, systematic reviews were identified through The National Library of MedicinePubmed, The Cochrane library, CINAHL, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and the American Dental Association web library. Independent reviewers quantified the relevance and quality of this literature with R-AMSTAR. Homogeneity and inter-rater reliability testing were supplemented with acceptable sampling analysis. Research synthesis outcomes were analyzed qualitatively toward a Bayesian inference, and converge to demonstrate a definite association between maternal periodontal disease and pregnancy outcome. This CRCSR limits heterogeneity in terms of periodontal disease, outcome measure, selection bias, uncontrolled confounders and effect modifiers. Taken together, the translational CRCSR model we propose suggests that further research is advocated to explore the fundamental mechanisms underlying this association, from a molecular and proteomic perspective.

Screening tool for oropharyngeal dysphagia in stroke - Part I: evidence of validity based on the content and response processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Tatiana Magalhães de; Cola, Paula Cristina; Pernambuco, Leandro de Araújo; Magalhães, Hipólito Virgílio; Magnoni, Carlos Daniel; Silva, Roberta Gonçalves da

2017-08-17

The aim of the present study was to identify the evidence of validity based on the content and response process of the Rastreamento de Disfagia Orofaríngea no Acidente Vascular Encefálico (RADAVE; "Screening Tool for Oropharyngeal Dysphagia in Stroke"). The criteria used to elaborate the questions were based on a literature review. A group of judges consisting of 19 different health professionals evaluated the relevance and representativeness of the questions, and the results were analyzed using the Content Validity Index. In order to evidence validity based on the response processes, 23 health professionals administered the screening tool and analyzed the questions using a structured scale and cognitive interview. The RADAVE structured to be applied in two stages. The first version consisted of 18 questions in stage I and 11 questions in stage II. Eight questions in stage I and four in stage II did not reach the minimum Content Validity Index, requiring reformulation by the authors. The cognitive interview demonstrated some misconceptions. New adjustments were made and the final version was produced with 12 questions in stage I and six questions in stage II. It was possible to develop a screening tool for dysphagia in stroke with adequate evidence of validity based on content and response processes. Both validity evidences obtained so far allowed to adjust the screening tool in relation to its construct. The next studies will analyze the other evidences of validity and the measures of accuracy.

CFD Validation Studies for Hypersonic Flow Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Gnoffo, Peter A.

2001-01-01

A series of experiments to measure pressure and heating for code validation involving hypersonic, laminar, separated flows was conducted at the Calspan-University at Buffalo Research Center (CUBRC) in the Large Energy National Shock (LENS) tunnel. The experimental data serves as a focus for a code validation session but are not available to the authors until the conclusion of this session. The first set of experiments considered here involve Mach 9.5 and Mach 11.3 N2 flow over a hollow cylinder-flare with 30 degree flare angle at several Reynolds numbers sustaining laminar, separated flow. Truncated and extended flare configurations are considered. The second set of experiments, at similar conditions, involves flow over a sharp, double cone with fore-cone angle of 25 degrees and aft-cone angle of 55 degrees. Both sets of experiments involve 30 degree compressions. Location of the separation point in the numerical simulation is extremely sensitive to the level of grid refinement in the numerical predictions. The numerical simulations also show a significant influence of Reynolds number on extent of separation. Flow unsteadiness was easily introduced into the double cone simulations using aggressive relaxation parameters that normally promote convergence.

Prediction of prostate cancer in unscreened men: external validation of a risk calculator.

Science.gov (United States)

van Vugt, Heidi A; Roobol, Monique J; Kranse, Ries; Määttänen, Liisa; Finne, Patrik; Hugosson, Jonas; Bangma, Chris H; Schröder, Fritz H; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2011-04-01

Prediction models need external validation to assess their value beyond the setting where the model was derived from. To assess the external validity of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (www.prostatecancer-riskcalculator.com) for the probability of having a positive prostate biopsy (P(posb)). The ERSPC risk calculator was based on data of the initial screening round of the ERSPC section Rotterdam and validated in 1825 and 531 men biopsied at the initial screening round in the Finnish and Swedish sections of the ERSPC respectively. P(posb) was calculated using serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), outcome of digital rectal examination (DRE), transrectal ultrasound and ultrasound assessed prostate volume. The external validity was assessed for the presence of cancer at biopsy by calibration (agreement between observed and predicted outcomes), discrimination (separation of those with and without cancer), and decision curves (for clinical usefulness). Prostate cancer was detected in 469 men (26%) of the Finnish cohort and in 124 men (23%) of the Swedish cohort. Systematic miscalibration was present in both cohorts (mean predicted probability 34% versus 26% observed, and 29% versus 23% observed, both pscreened men, but overestimated the risk of a positive biopsy. Further research is necessary to assess the performance and applicability of the ERSPC risk calculator when a clinical setting is considered rather than a screening setting. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of multivariable predictive model for thromboembolic events in lymphoma patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Antic, Darko; Milic, Natasa; Nikolovski, Srdjan; Todorovic, Milena; Bila, Jelena; Djurdjevic, Predrag; Andjelic, Bosko; Djurasinovic, Vladislava; Sretenovic, Aleksandra; Vukovic, Vojin; Jelicic, Jelena; Hayman, Suzanne; Mihaljevic, Biljana

2016-10-01

Lymphoma patients are at increased risk of thromboembolic events but thromboprophylaxis in these patients is largely underused. We sought to develop and validate a simple model, based on individual clinical and laboratory patient characteristics that would designate lymphoma patients at risk for thromboembolic event. The study population included 1,820 lymphoma patients who were treated in the Lymphoma Departments at the Clinics of Hematology, Clinical Center of Serbia and Clinical Center Kragujevac. The model was developed using data from a derivation cohort (n = 1,236), and further assessed in the validation cohort (n = 584). Sixty-five patients (5.3%) in the derivation cohort and 34 (5.8%) patients in the validation cohort developed thromboembolic events. The variables independently associated with risk for thromboembolism were: previous venous and/or arterial events, mediastinal involvement, BMI>30 kg/m(2) , reduced mobility, extranodal localization, development of neutropenia and hemoglobin level 3). For patients classified at risk (intermediate and high-risk scores), the model produced negative predictive value of 98.5%, positive predictive value of 25.1%, sensitivity of 75.4%, and specificity of 87.5%. A high-risk score had positive predictive value of 65.2%. The diagnostic performance measures retained similar values in the validation cohort. Developed prognostic Thrombosis Lymphoma - ThroLy score is more specific for lymphoma patients than any other available score targeting thrombosis in cancer patients. Am. J. Hematol. 91:1014-1019, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

Unpredictable dividend growth by the dividend-price ratio is considered a 'stylized fact' in post war US data. Using long-term data, covering more than 80 years from the US and three European countries, we revisit this stylized fact, and we also report results on return predictability. We find...... similar to those for the US. For Sweden and Denmark we find no evidence of return predictability, but strong evidence of predictable dividend growth in the 'right' direction on both short and long horizons and over both the full sample periods and the post war period. We also document that implied long......-horizon coefficients from VAR's often differ substantially from direct estimates in multi-year regres- sions. Throughout, we report both standard asymptotic tests and simulated small- sample tests and, following Cochrane (2008), we investigate the joint distribution of dividend-price ratio coefficients in return...

Information-Theoretic Evidence for Predictive Coding in the Face-Processing System.

Science.gov (United States)

Brodski-Guerniero, Alla; Paasch, Georg-Friedrich; Wollstadt, Patricia; Özdemir, Ipek; Lizier, Joseph T; Wibral, Michael

2017-08-23

Predictive coding suggests that the brain infers the causes of its sensations by combining sensory evidence with internal predictions based on available prior knowledge. However, the neurophysiological correlates of (pre)activated prior knowledge serving these predictions are still unknown. Based on the idea that such preactivated prior knowledge must be maintained until needed, we measured the amount of maintained information in neural signals via the active information storage (AIS) measure. AIS was calculated on whole-brain beamformer-reconstructed source time courses from MEG recordings of 52 human subjects during the baseline of a Mooney face/house detection task. Preactivation of prior knowledge for faces showed as α-band-related and β-band-related AIS increases in content-specific areas; these AIS increases were behaviorally relevant in the brain's fusiform face area. Further, AIS allowed decoding of the cued category on a trial-by-trial basis. Our results support accounts indicating that activated prior knowledge and the corresponding predictions are signaled in low-frequency activity (information our eyes/retina and other sensory organs receive from the outside world, but strongly depends also on information already present in our brains, such as prior knowledge about specific situations or objects. A currently popular theory in neuroscience, predictive coding theory, suggests that this prior knowledge is used by the brain to form internal predictions about upcoming sensory information. However, neurophysiological evidence for this hypothesis is rare, mostly because this kind of evidence requires strong a priori assumptions about the specific predictions the brain makes and the brain areas involved. Using a novel, assumption-free approach, we find that face-related prior knowledge and the derived predictions are represented in low-frequency brain activity. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378273-11$15.00/0.

Validation of Skeletal Muscle cis-Regulatory Module Predictions Reveals Nucleotide Composition Bias in Functional Enhancers

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Andrew T.; Chou, Alice Yi; Arenillas, David J.; Wasserman, Wyeth W.

2011-01-01

We performed a genome-wide scan for muscle-specific cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) using three computational prediction programs. Based on the predictions, 339 candidate CRMs were tested in cell culture with NIH3T3 fibroblasts and C2C12 myoblasts for capacity to direct selective reporter gene expression to differentiated C2C12 myotubes. A subset of 19 CRMs validated as functional in the assay. The rate of predictive success reveals striking limitations of computational regulatory sequence analysis methods for CRM discovery. Motif-based methods performed no better than predictions based only on sequence conservation. Analysis of the properties of the functional sequences relative to inactive sequences identifies nucleotide sequence composition can be an important characteristic to incorporate in future methods for improved predictive specificity. Muscle-related TFBSs predicted within the functional sequences display greater sequence conservation than non-TFBS flanking regions. Comparison with recent MyoD and histone modification ChIP-Seq data supports the validity of the functional regions. PMID:22144875

Validation of skeletal muscle cis-regulatory module predictions reveals nucleotide composition bias in functional enhancers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew T Kwon

2011-12-01

Full Text Available We performed a genome-wide scan for muscle-specific cis-regulatory modules (CRMs using three computational prediction programs. Based on the predictions, 339 candidate CRMs were tested in cell culture with NIH3T3 fibroblasts and C2C12 myoblasts for capacity to direct selective reporter gene expression to differentiated C2C12 myotubes. A subset of 19 CRMs validated as functional in the assay. The rate of predictive success reveals striking limitations of computational regulatory sequence analysis methods for CRM discovery. Motif-based methods performed no better than predictions based only on sequence conservation. Analysis of the properties of the functional sequences relative to inactive sequences identifies nucleotide sequence composition can be an important characteristic to incorporate in future methods for improved predictive specificity. Muscle-related TFBSs predicted within the functional sequences display greater sequence conservation than non-TFBS flanking regions. Comparison with recent MyoD and histone modification ChIP-Seq data supports the validity of the functional regions.

Reliability and validity evidence of the Assessment of Language Use in Social Contexts for Adults (ALUSCA).

Science.gov (United States)

Valente, Ana Rita S; Hall, Andreia; Alvelos, Helena; Leahy, Margaret; Jesus, Luis M T

2018-04-12

The appropriate use of language in context depends on the speaker's pragmatic language competencies. A coding system was used to develop a specific and adult-focused self-administered questionnaire to adults who stutter and adults who do not stutter, The Assessment of Language Use in Social Contexts for Adults, with three categories: precursors, basic exchanges, and extended literal/non-literal discourse. This paper presents the content validity, item analysis, reliability coefficients and evidences of construct validity of the instrument. Content validity analysis was based on a two-stage process: first, 11 pragmatic questionnaires were assessed to identify items that probe each pragmatic competency and to create the first version of the instrument; second, items were assessed qualitatively by an expert panel composed by adults who stutter and controls, and quantitatively and qualitatively by an expert panel composed by clinicians. A pilot study was conducted with five adults who stutter and five controls to analyse items and calculate reliability. Construct validity evidences were obtained using the hypothesized relationships method and factor analysis with 28 adults who stutter and 28 controls. Concerning content validity, the questionnaires assessed up to 13 pragmatic competencies. Qualitative and quantitative analysis revealed ambiguities in items construction. Disagreement between experts was solved through item modification. The pilot study showed that the instrument presented internal consistency and temporal stability. Significant differences between adults who stutter and controls and different response profiles revealed the instrument's underlying construct. The instrument is reliable and presented evidences of construct validity.

Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines. Volume 3; Validation and Test Cases

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Bruce L.

2010-01-01

Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the third volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by validation studies that were done on three fan rigs. It concludes with recommended improvements and additional studies for BFaNS.

Predictive validity of the Sødring Motor Evaluation of Stroke Patients (SMES).

Science.gov (United States)

Wyller, T B; Sødring, K M; Sveen, U; Ljunggren, A E; Bautz-Holter, E

1996-12-01

The Sødring Motor Evaluation of Stroke Patients (SMES) has been developed as an instrument for the evaluation by physiotherapists of motor function and activities in stroke patients. The predictive validity of the instrument was studied in a consecutive sample of 93 acute stroke patients, assessed in the acute phase and after one year. The outcome measures were: survival, residence at home or in institution, the Barthel ADL index (dichotomized at 19/20), and the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) (dichotomized at 9/10). The SMES, scored in the acute phase, demonstrated a marginally significant predictive power regarding survival, but was a highly significant predictor regarding the other outcomes. The adjusted odds ratio for a good versus a poor outcome for patients in the upper versus the lower tertile of the SMES arm subscore was 5.4 (95% confidence interval 0.9-59) for survival, 11.5 (2.1-88) for living at home, 86.3 (11-infinity) for a high Barthel score, and 31.4 (5.2-288) for a high FAI score. We conclude that SMES has high predictive validity.

Discrete fracture modelling for the Stripa tracer validation experiment predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dershowitz, W.; Wallmann, P.

1992-02-01

Groundwater flow and transport through three-dimensional networks of discrete fractures was modeled to predict the recovery of tracer from tracer injection experiments conducted during phase 3 of the Stripa site characterization and validation protect. Predictions were made on the basis of an updated version of the site scale discrete fracture conceptual model used for flow predictions and preliminary transport modelling. In this model, individual fractures were treated as stochastic features described by probability distributions of geometric and hydrologic properties. Fractures were divided into three populations: Fractures in fracture zones near the drift, non-fracture zone fractures within 31 m of the drift, and fractures in fracture zones over 31 meters from the drift axis. Fractures outside fracture zones are not modelled beyond 31 meters from the drift axis. Transport predictions were produced using the FracMan discrete fracture modelling package for each of five tracer experiments. Output was produced in the seven formats specified by the Stripa task force on fracture flow modelling. (au)

Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

2018-05-01

TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Validity Evidence for the Security Scale as a Measure of Perceived Attachment Security in Adolescence

Science.gov (United States)

Van Ryzin, Mark J.; Leve, Leslie D.

2012-01-01

In this study, the validity of a self-report measure of children's perceived attachment security (the Kerns Security Scale) was tested using adolescents. With regards to predictive validity, the Security Scale was significantly associated with (1) observed mother-adolescent interactions during conflict and (2) parent- and teacher-rated social…

Validity of a manual soft tissue profile prediction method following mandibular setback osteotomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolokitha, Olga-Elpis

2007-10-01

The aim of this study was to determine the validity of a manual cephalometric method used for predicting the post-operative soft tissue profiles of patients who underwent mandibular setback surgery and compare it to a computerized cephalometric prediction method (Dentofacial Planner). Lateral cephalograms of 18 adults with mandibular prognathism taken at the end of pre-surgical orthodontics and approximately one year after surgery were used. To test the validity of the manual method the prediction tracings were compared to the actual post-operative tracings. The Dentofacial Planner software was used to develop the computerized post-surgical prediction tracings. Both manual and computerized prediction printouts were analyzed by using the cephalometric system PORDIOS. Statistical analysis was performed by means of t-test. Comparison between manual prediction tracings and the actual post-operative profile showed that the manual method results in more convex soft tissue profiles; the upper lip was found in a more prominent position, upper lip thickness was increased and, the mandible and lower lip were found in a less posterior position than that of the actual profiles. Comparison between computerized and manual prediction methods showed that in the manual method upper lip thickness was increased, the upper lip was found in a more anterior position and the lower anterior facial height was increased as compared to the computerized prediction method. Cephalometric simulation of post-operative soft tissue profile following orthodontic-surgical management of mandibular prognathism imposes certain limitations related to the methods implied. However, both manual and computerized prediction methods remain a useful tool for patient communication.

The Predictive Validity of CBM Writing Indices for Eighth-Grade Students

Science.gov (United States)

Amato, Janelle M.; Watkins, Marley W.

2011-01-01

Curriculum-based measurement (CBM) is an alternative to traditional assessment techniques. Technical work has begun to identify CBM writing indices that are psychometrically sound for monitoring older students' writing proficiency. This study examined the predictive validity of CBM writing indices in a sample of 447 eighth-grade students.…

Computational prediction and experimental validation of Ciona intestinalis microRNA genes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pasquinelli Amy E

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This study reports the first collection of validated microRNA genes in the sea squirt, Ciona intestinalis. MicroRNAs are processed from hairpin precursors to ~22 nucleotide RNAs that base pair to target mRNAs and inhibit expression. As a member of the subphylum Urochordata (Tunicata whose larval form has a notochord, the sea squirt is situated at the emergence of vertebrates, and therefore may provide information about the evolution of molecular regulators of early development. Results In this study, computational methods were used to predict 14 microRNA gene families in Ciona intestinalis. The microRNA prediction algorithm utilizes configurable microRNA sequence conservation and stem-loop specificity parameters, grouping by miRNA family, and phylogenetic conservation to the related species, Ciona savignyi. The expression for 8, out of 9 attempted, of the putative microRNAs in the adult tissue of Ciona intestinalis was validated by Northern blot analyses. Additionally, a target prediction algorithm was implemented, which identified a high confidence list of 240 potential target genes. Over half of the predicted targets can be grouped into the gene ontology categories of metabolism, transport, regulation of transcription, and cell signaling. Conclusion The computational techniques implemented in this study can be applied to other organisms and serve to increase the understanding of the origins of non-coding RNAs, embryological and cellular developmental pathways, and the mechanisms for microRNA-controlled gene regulatory networks.

Adaptation and validation of the Evidence-Based Practice Belief and Implementation scales for French-speaking Swiss nurses and allied healthcare providers.

Science.gov (United States)

Verloo, Henk; Desmedt, Mario; Morin, Diane

2017-09-01

To evaluate two psychometric properties of the French versions of the Evidence-Based Practice Beliefs and Evidence-Based Practice Implementation scales, namely their internal consistency and construct validity. The Evidence-Based Practice Beliefs and Evidence-Based Practice Implementation scales developed by Melnyk et al. are recognised as valid, reliable instruments in English. However, no psychometric validation for their French versions existed. Secondary analysis of a cross sectional survey. Source data came from a cross-sectional descriptive study sample of 382 nurses and other allied healthcare providers. Cronbach's alpha was used to evaluate internal consistency, and principal axis factor analysis and varimax rotation were computed to determine construct validity. The French Evidence-Based Practice Beliefs and Evidence-Based Practice Implementation scales showed excellent reliability, with Cronbach's alphas close to the scores established by Melnyk et al.'s original versions. Principal axis factor analysis showed medium-to-high factor loading scores without obtaining collinearity. Principal axis factor analysis with varimax rotation of the 16-item Evidence-Based Practice Beliefs scale resulted in a four-factor loading structure. Principal axis factor analysis with varimax rotation of the 17-item Evidence-Based Practice Implementation scale revealed a two-factor loading structure. Further research should attempt to understand why the French Evidence-Based Practice Implementation scale showed a two-factor loading structure but Melnyk et al.'s original has only one. The French versions of the Evidence-Based Practice Beliefs and Evidence-Based Practice Implementation scales can both be considered valid and reliable instruments for measuring Evidence-Based Practice beliefs and implementation. The results suggest that the French Evidence-Based Practice Beliefs and Evidence-Based Practice Implementation scales are valid and reliable and can therefore be used to

Can preventable adverse events be predicted among hospitalized older patients? The development and validation of a predictive model.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steeg, L. van de; Langelaan, M.; Wagner, C.

2014-01-01

Objective: To develop and validate a predictive model for preventable adverse events (AEs) in hospitalized older patients, using clinically important risk factors that are readily available on admission. Design: Data from two retrospective patient record review studies on AEs were used. Risk factors

Large-scale international validation of the ADO index in subjects with COPD

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Puhan, Milo A; Hansel, Nadia N; Sobradillo, Patricia

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND: Little evidence on the validity of simple and widely applicable tools to predict mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exists. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a large international study to validate the ADO index that uses age, dyspnoea and FEV(1) to predict 3......-IV. MEASUREMENTS: We validated the original ADO index. We then obtained an updated ADO index in half of our cohorts to improve its predictive accuracy, which in turn was validated comprehensively in the remaining cohorts using discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis and a number of sensitivity......-to-moderate risk of 3-year mortality than FEV(1) alone. INTERPRETATION: The updated 15-point ADO index accurately predicts 3-year mortality across the COPD severity spectrum and can be used to inform patients about their prognosis, clinical trial study design or benefit harm assessment of medical interventions....

Criminal profiling as expert witness evidence: The implications of the profiler validity research.

Science.gov (United States)

Kocsis, Richard N; Palermo, George B

The use and development of the investigative tool colloquially known as criminal profiling has steadily increased over the past five decades throughout the world. Coupled with this growth has been a diversification in the suggested range of applications for this technique. Possibly the most notable of these has been the attempted transition of the technique from a tool intended to assist police investigations into a form of expert witness evidence admissible in legal proceedings. Whilst case law in various jurisdictions has considered with mutual disinclination the evidentiary admissibility of criminal profiling, a disjunction has evolved between these judicial examinations and the scientifically vetted research testing the accuracy (i.e., validity) of the technique. This article offers an analysis of the research directly testing the validity of the criminal profiling technique and the extant legal principles considering its evidentiary admissibility. This analysis reveals that research findings concerning the validity of criminal profiling are surprisingly compatible with the extant legal principles. The overall conclusion is that a discrete form of crime behavioural analysis is supported by the profiler validity research and could be regarded as potentially admissible expert witness evidence. Finally, a number of theoretical connections are also identified concerning the skills and qualifications of individuals who may feasibly provide such expert testimony. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validity evidence of non-technical skills assessment instruments in simulated anaesthesia crisis management.

Science.gov (United States)

Jirativanont, T; Raksamani, K; Aroonpruksakul, N; Apidechakul, P; Suraseranivongse, S

2017-07-01

We sought to evaluate the validity of two non-technical skills evaluation instruments, the Anaesthetists' Non-Technical Skills (ANTS) behavioural marker system and the Ottawa Global Rating Scale (GRS), to apply them to anaesthesia training. The content validity, response process, internal structure, relations with other variables and consequences were described for validity evidence. Simulated crisis management sessions were initiated during which two trained raters evaluated the performance of postgraduate first-, second- and third-year (PGY-1, PGY-2 and PGY-3) anaesthesia residents. The study included 70 participants, composed of 24 PGY-1, 24 PGY-2 and 22 PGY-3 residents. Both instruments differentiated the non-technical skills of PGY-1 from PGY-3 residents ( P skills were 0.86, 0.83, 0.84, 0.87, 0.80 and 0.86, respectively. The Cronbach's alpha for internal consistency of the ANTS instrument was 0.93, and was 0.96 for the Ottawa GRS. There was a high correlation between the ANTS and Ottawa GRS. The raters reported the ease of use of the Ottawa GRS compared to the ANTS. We found sufficient evidence of validity in the ANTS instrument and the Ottawa GRS for the evaluation of non-technical skills in a simulated anaesthesia setting, but the Ottawa GRS was more practical and had higher reliability.

Geographic and temporal validity of prediction models: Different approaches were useful to examine model performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.C. Austin (Peter); D. van Klaveren (David); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); D. Nieboer (Daan); D.S. Lee (Douglas); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

2016-01-01

textabstractObjective: Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting: We

An assessment of the validity of inelastic design analysis methods by comparisons of predictions with test results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corum, J.M.; Clinard, J.A.; Sartory, W.K.

1976-01-01

The use of computer programs that employ relatively complex constitutive theories and analysis procedures to perform inelastic design calculations on fast reactor system components introduces questions of validation and acceptance of the analysis results. We may ask ourselves, ''How valid are the answers.'' These questions, in turn, involve the concepts of verification of computer programs as well as qualification of the computer programs and of the underlying constitutive theories and analysis procedures. This paper addresses the latter - the qualification of the analysis methods for inelastic design calculations. Some of the work underway in the United States to provide the necessary information to evaluate inelastic analysis methods and computer programs is described, and typical comparisons of analysis predictions with inelastic structural test results are presented. It is emphasized throughout that rather than asking ourselves how valid, or correct, are the analytical predictions, we might more properly question whether or not the combination of the predictions and the associated high-temperature design criteria leads to an acceptable level of structural integrity. It is believed that in this context the analysis predictions are generally valid, even though exact correlations between predictions and actual behavior are not obtained and cannot be expected. Final judgment, however, must be reserved for the design analyst in each specific case. (author)

Reliability and Validity of the Load-Velocity Relationship to Predict the 1RM Back Squat.

Science.gov (United States)

Banyard, Harry G; Nosaka, Kazunori; Haff, G Gregory

2017-07-01

Banyard, HG, Nosaka, K, and Haff, GG. Reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the 1RM back squat. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1897-1904, 2017-This study investigated the reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the free-weight back squat one repetition maximum (1RM). Seventeen strength-trained males performed three 1RM assessments on 3 separate days. All repetitions were performed to full depth with maximal concentric effort. Predicted 1RMs were calculated by entering the mean concentric velocity of the 1RM (V1RM) into an individualized linear regression equation, which was derived from the load-velocity relationship of 3 (20, 40, 60% of 1RM), 4 (20, 40, 60, 80% of 1RM), or 5 (20, 40, 60, 80, 90% of 1RM) incremental warm-up sets. The actual 1RM (140.3 ± 27.2 kg) was very stable between 3 trials (ICC = 0.99; SEM = 2.9 kg; CV = 2.1%; ES = 0.11). Predicted 1RM from 5 warm-up sets up to and including 90% of 1RM was the most reliable (ICC = 0.92; SEM = 8.6 kg; CV = 5.7%; ES = -0.02) and valid (r = 0.93; SEE = 10.6 kg; CV = 7.4%; ES = 0.71) of the predicted 1RM methods. However, all predicted 1RMs were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05; ES = 0.71-1.04) from the actual 1RM. Individual variation for the actual 1RM was small between trials ranging from -5.6 to 4.8% compared with the most accurate predictive method up to 90% of 1RM, which was more variable (-5.5 to 27.8%). Importantly, the V1RM (0.24 ± 0.06 m·s) was unreliable between trials (ICC = 0.42; SEM = 0.05 m·s; CV = 22.5%; ES = 0.14). The load-velocity relationship for the full depth free-weight back squat showed moderate reliability and validity but could not accurately predict 1RM, which was stable between trials. Thus, the load-velocity relationship 1RM prediction method used in this study cannot accurately modify sessional training loads because of large V1RM variability.

Validity of one-repetition maximum predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ribeiro Neto, F; Guanais, P; Dornelas, E; Coutinho, A C B; Costa, R R G

2017-10-01

Cross-sectional study. The study aimed (a) to test the cross-validation of current one-repetition maximum (1RM) predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury (SCI); (b) to compare the current 1RM predictive equations to a newly developed equation based on the 4- to 12-repetition maximum test (4-12RM). SARAH Rehabilitation Hospital Network, Brasilia, Brazil. Forty-five men aged 28.0 years with SCI between C6 and L2 causing complete motor impairment were enrolled in the study. Volunteers were tested, in a random order, in 1RM test or 4-12RM with 2-3 interval days. Multiple regression analysis was used to generate an equation for predicting 1RM. There were no significant differences between 1RM test and the current predictive equations. ICC values were significant and were classified as excellent for all current predictive equations. The predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best Bland-Altman results (0.5 kg and 12.8 kg for mean difference and interval range around the differences, respectively). The two created equation models for 1RM demonstrated the same and a high adjusted R 2 (0.971, Ppredictive equations are accurate to assess individuals with SCI at the bench press exercise. However, the predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best associated cross-validity results. A specific 1RM prediction equation was also elaborated for individuals with SCI. The created equation should be tested in order to verify whether it presents better accuracy than the current ones.

Convergent evidence for hierarchical prediction networks from human electrocorticography and magnetoencephalography.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Holly N; Blenkmann, Alejandro; Hughes, Laura E; Kochen, Silvia; Bekinschtein, Tristan A; Cam-Can; Rowe, James B

2016-09-01

We propose that sensory inputs are processed in terms of optimised predictions and prediction error signals within hierarchical neurocognitive models. The combination of non-invasive brain imaging and generative network models has provided support for hierarchical frontotemporal interactions in oddball tasks, including recent identification of a temporal expectancy signal acting on prefrontal cortex. However, these studies are limited by the need to invert magnetoencephalographic or electroencephalographic sensor signals to localise activity from cortical 'nodes' in the network, or to infer neural responses from indirect measures such as the fMRI BOLD signal. To overcome this limitation, we examined frontotemporal interactions estimated from direct cortical recordings from two human participants with cortical electrode grids (electrocorticography - ECoG). Their frontotemporal network dynamics were compared to those identified by magnetoencephalography (MEG) in forty healthy adults. All participants performed the same auditory oddball task with standard tones interspersed with five deviant tone types. We normalised post-operative electrode locations to standardised anatomic space, to compare across modalities, and inverted the MEG to cortical sources using the estimated lead field from subject-specific head models. A mismatch negativity signal in frontal and temporal cortex was identified in all subjects. Generative models of the electrocorticographic and magnetoencephalographic data were separately compared using the free-energy estimate of the model evidence. Model comparison confirmed the same critical features of hierarchical frontotemporal networks in each patient as in the group-wise MEG analysis. These features included bilateral, feedforward and feedback frontotemporal modulated connectivity, in addition to an asymmetric expectancy driving input on left frontal cortex. The invasive ECoG provides an important step in construct validation of the use of neural

A Brazilian Portuguese Survey of School Climate: Evidence of Validity and Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Bear, George G.; Holst, Bruna; Lisboa, Carolina; Chen, Dandan; Yang, Chunyan; Chen, Fang Fang

2016-01-01

This study presents evidence of the validity and reliability of scores for the newly developed Brazilian Portuguese version of the Delaware School Climate Survey-Student (Brazilian DSCS-S). The sample consisted of 378 students, grades 5 through 9, attending four private and three public schools in southern Brazil. Confirmatory factor analyses…

New Perspectives on the Validity of the "GRE"® General Test for Predicting Graduate School Grades. ETS GRE® Board Research Report. ETS GRE®-14-03. ETS Research Report. RR-14-26

Science.gov (United States)

Klieger, David M.; Cline, Frederick A.; Holtzman, Steven L.; Minsky, Jennifer L.; Lorenz, Florian

2014-01-01

Given the serious consequences of making ill-fated admissions and funding decisions for applicants to graduate and professional school, it is important to rely on sound evidence to optimize such judgments. Previous meta-analytic research has demonstrated the generalizable validity of the "GRE"® General Test for predicting academic…

A Cross-Validation Study of Police Recruit Performance as Predicted by the IPI and MMPI.

Science.gov (United States)

Shusman, Elizabeth J.; And Others

Validation and cross-validation studies were conducted using the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) and Inwald Personality Inventory (IPI) to predict job performance for 698 urban male police officers who completed a six-month training academy. Job performance criteria evaluated included absence, lateness, derelictions, negative…

Predictive Validity and Accuracy of Oral Reading Fluency for English Learners

Science.gov (United States)

Vanderwood, Michael L.; Tung, Catherine Y.; Checca, C. Jason

2014-01-01

The predictive validity and accuracy of an oral reading fluency (ORF) measure for a statewide assessment in English language arts was examined for second-grade native English speakers (NESs) and English learners (ELs) with varying levels of English proficiency. In addition to comparing ELs with native English speakers, the impact of English…

A simplified approach to the pooled analysis of calibration of clinical prediction rules for systematic reviews of validation studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitrov BD

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Borislav D Dimitrov,1,2 Nicola Motterlini,2,† Tom Fahey2 1Academic Unit of Primary Care and Population Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; 2HRB Centre for Primary Care Research, Department of General Medicine, Division of Population Health Sciences, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, Dublin, Ireland †Nicola Motterlini passed away on November 11, 2012 Objective: Estimating calibration performance of clinical prediction rules (CPRs in systematic reviews of validation studies is not possible when predicted values are neither published nor accessible or sufficient or no individual participant or patient data are available. Our aims were to describe a simplified approach for outcomes prediction and calibration assessment and evaluate its functionality and validity. Study design and methods: Methodological study of systematic reviews of validation studies of CPRs: a ABCD2 rule for prediction of 7 day stroke; and b CRB-65 rule for prediction of 30 day mortality. Predicted outcomes in a sample validation study were computed by CPR distribution patterns (“derivation model”. As confirmation, a logistic regression model (with derivation study coefficients was applied to CPR-based dummy variables in the validation study. Meta-analysis of validation studies provided pooled estimates of “predicted:observed” risk ratios (RRs, 95% confidence intervals (CIs, and indexes of heterogeneity (I2 on forest plots (fixed and random effects models, with and without adjustment of intercepts. The above approach was also applied to the CRB-65 rule. Results: Our simplified method, applied to ABCD2 rule in three risk strata (low, 0–3; intermediate, 4–5; high, 6–7 points, indicated that predictions are identical to those computed by univariate, CPR-based logistic regression model. Discrimination was good (c-statistics =0.61–0.82, however, calibration in some studies was low. In such cases with miscalibration, the under-prediction

Development and validation of a novel predictive scoring model for microvascular invasion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Hui [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Medical University Affiliated Wuxi Second People' s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu (China); Hua, Ye [Department of Neurology, Nanjing Medical University Affiliated Wuxi Second People’s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu (China); Dai, Tu [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Medical University Affiliated Wuxi Second People' s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu (China); He, Jian; Tang, Min [Department of Radiology, Drum Tower Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Fu, Xu; Mao, Liang [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Jin, Huihan, E-mail: 45687061@qq.com [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Medical University Affiliated Wuxi Second People' s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu (China); Qiu, Yudong, E-mail: yudongqiu510@163.com [Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China)

2017-03-15

Highlights: • This study aimed to establish a novel predictive scoring model of MVI in HCC patients. • Preoperative imaging features on CECT, such as intratumoral arteries, non-nodule type and absence of radiological tumor capsule were independent predictors for MVI. • The predictive scoring model is of great value in prediction of MVI regardless of tumor size. - Abstract: Purpose: Microvascular invasion (MVI) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cannot be accurately predicted preoperatively. This study aimed to establish a predictive scoring model of MVI in solitary HCC patients without macroscopic vascular invasion. Methods: A total of 309 consecutive HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy were divided into the derivation (n = 206) and validation cohort (n = 103). A predictive scoring model of MVI was established according to the valuable predictors in the derivation cohort based on multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the predictive model was evaluated in the derivation and validation cohorts. Results: Preoperative imaging features on CECT, such as intratumoral arteries, non-nodular type of HCC and absence of radiological tumor capsule were independent predictors for MVI. The predictive scoring model was established according to the β coefficients of the 3 predictors. Area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of the predictive scoring model was 0.872 (95% CI, 0.817-0.928) and 0.856 (95% CI, 0.771-0.940) in the derivation and validation cohorts. The positive and negative predictive values were 76.5% and 88.0% in the derivation cohort and 74.4% and 88.3% in the validation cohort. The performance of the model was similar between the patients with tumor size ≤5 cm and >5 cm in AUROC (P = 0.910). Conclusions: The predictive scoring model based on intratumoral arteries, non-nodular type of HCC, and absence of the radiological tumor capsule on preoperative CECT is of great value in the prediction of MVI

Development and validation of a novel predictive scoring model for microvascular invasion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Hui; Hua, Ye; Dai, Tu; He, Jian; Tang, Min; Fu, Xu; Mao, Liang; Jin, Huihan; Qiu, Yudong

2017-01-01

Highlights: • This study aimed to establish a novel predictive scoring model of MVI in HCC patients. • Preoperative imaging features on CECT, such as intratumoral arteries, non-nodule type and absence of radiological tumor capsule were independent predictors for MVI. • The predictive scoring model is of great value in prediction of MVI regardless of tumor size. - Abstract: Purpose: Microvascular invasion (MVI) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cannot be accurately predicted preoperatively. This study aimed to establish a predictive scoring model of MVI in solitary HCC patients without macroscopic vascular invasion. Methods: A total of 309 consecutive HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy were divided into the derivation (n = 206) and validation cohort (n = 103). A predictive scoring model of MVI was established according to the valuable predictors in the derivation cohort based on multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the predictive model was evaluated in the derivation and validation cohorts. Results: Preoperative imaging features on CECT, such as intratumoral arteries, non-nodular type of HCC and absence of radiological tumor capsule were independent predictors for MVI. The predictive scoring model was established according to the β coefficients of the 3 predictors. Area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of the predictive scoring model was 0.872 (95% CI, 0.817-0.928) and 0.856 (95% CI, 0.771-0.940) in the derivation and validation cohorts. The positive and negative predictive values were 76.5% and 88.0% in the derivation cohort and 74.4% and 88.3% in the validation cohort. The performance of the model was similar between the patients with tumor size ≤5 cm and >5 cm in AUROC (P = 0.910). Conclusions: The predictive scoring model based on intratumoral arteries, non-nodular type of HCC, and absence of the radiological tumor capsule on preoperative CECT is of great value in the prediction of MVI

The Discriminative validity of "nociceptive," "peripheral neuropathic," and "central sensitization" as mechanisms-based classifications of musculoskeletal pain.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Smart, Keith M

2012-02-01

OBJECTIVES: Empirical evidence of discriminative validity is required to justify the use of mechanisms-based classifications of musculoskeletal pain in clinical practice. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the discriminative validity of mechanisms-based classifications of pain by identifying discriminatory clusters of clinical criteria predictive of "nociceptive," "peripheral neuropathic," and "central sensitization" pain in patients with low back (+\\/- leg) pain disorders. METHODS: This study was a cross-sectional, between-patients design using the extreme-groups method. Four hundred sixty-four patients with low back (+\\/- leg) pain were assessed using a standardized assessment protocol. After each assessment, patients\\' pain was assigned a mechanisms-based classification. Clinicians then completed a clinical criteria checklist indicating the presence\\/absence of various clinical criteria. RESULTS: Multivariate analyses using binary logistic regression with Bayesian model averaging identified a discriminative cluster of 7, 3, and 4 symptoms and signs predictive of a dominance of "nociceptive," "peripheral neuropathic," and "central sensitization" pain, respectively. Each cluster was found to have high levels of classification accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, positive\\/negative predictive values, positive\\/negative likelihood ratios). DISCUSSION: By identifying a discriminatory cluster of symptoms and signs predictive of "nociceptive," "peripheral neuropathic," and "central" pain, this study provides some preliminary discriminative validity evidence for mechanisms-based classifications of musculoskeletal pain. Classification system validation requires the accumulation of validity evidence before their use in clinical practice can be recommended. Further studies are required to evaluate the construct and criterion validity of mechanisms-based classifications of musculoskeletal pain.

Validation of a Predictive Model for Survival in Metastatic Cancer Patients Attending an Outpatient Palliative Radiotherapy Clinic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chow, Edward; Abdolell, Mohamed; Panzarella, Tony; Harris, Kristin; Bezjak, Andrea; Warde, Padraig; Tannock, Ian

2009-01-01

Purpose: To validate a predictive model for survival of patients attending a palliative radiotherapy clinic. Methods and Materials: We described previously a model that had good predictive value for survival of patients referred during 1999 (1). The six prognostic factors (primary cancer site, site of metastases, Karnofsky performance score, and the fatigue, appetite and shortness-of-breath items from the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale) identified in this training set were extracted from the prospective database for the year 2000. We generated a partial score whereby each prognostic factor was assigned a value proportional to its prognostic weight. The sum of the partial scores for each patient was used to construct a survival prediction score (SPS). Patients were also grouped according to the number of these risk factors (NRF) that they possessed. The probability of survival at 3, 6, and 12 months was generated. The models were evaluated for their ability to predict survival in this validation set with appropriate statistical tests. Results: The median survival and survival probabilities of the training and validation sets were similar when separated into three groups using both SPS and NRF methods. There was no statistical difference in the performance of the SPS and NRF methods in survival prediction. Conclusion: Both the SPS and NRF models for predicting survival in patients referred for palliative radiotherapy have been validated. The NRF model is preferred because it is simpler and avoids the need to remember the weightings among the prognostic factors

Development and validation of a prediction model for loss of physical function in elderly hemodialysis patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Fukuma, Shingo; Shimizu, Sayaka; Shintani, Ayumi; Kamitani, Tsukasa; Akizawa, Tadao; Fukuhara, Shunichi

2017-09-05

Among aging hemodialysis patients, loss of physical function has become a major issue. We developed and validated a model of predicting loss of physical function among elderly hemodialysis patients. We conducted a cohort study involving maintenance hemodialysis patients  ≥65 years of age from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Pattern Study in Japan. The derivation cohort included 593 early phase (1996-2004) patients and the temporal validation cohort included 447 late-phase (2005-12) patients. The main outcome was the incidence of loss of physical function, defined as the 12-item Short Form Health Survey physical function score decreasing to 0 within a year. Using backward stepwise logistic regression by Akaike's Information Criteria, six predictors (age, gender, dementia, mental health, moderate activity and ascending stairs) were selected for the final model. Points were assigned based on the regression coefficients and the total score was calculated by summing the points for each predictor. In total, 65 (11.0%) and 53 (11.9%) hemodialysis patients lost their physical function within 1 year in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. This model has good predictive performance quantified by both discrimination and calibration. The proportion of the loss of physical function increased sequentially through low-, middle-, and high-score categories based on the model (2.5%, 11.7% and 22.3% in the validation cohort, respectively). The loss of physical function was strongly associated with 1-year mortality [adjusted odds ratio 2.48 (95% confidence interval 1.26-4.91)]. We developed and validated a risk prediction model with good predictive performance for loss of physical function in elderly hemodialysis patients. Our simple prediction model may help physicians and patients make more informed decisions for healthy longevity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.

Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

2018-02-01

Teramoto, M, Cross, CL, Rieger, RH, Maak, TG, and Willick, SE. Predictive validity of national basketball association draft combine on future performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(2): 396-408, 2018-The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA draft; however, its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and 3-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data through PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. As per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large-sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p ≤ 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

2016-03-01

Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the ASSERT subchannel code for prediction of CHF in standard and non-standard CANDU bundle geometries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiteley, J.C.; Carver, M.B.; Zhou, Q.N.

1993-01-01

The ASSERT code has been developed to address the three-dimensional computation of flow and phase distribution and fuel element surface temperatures within the horizontal subchannels of CANDU PHWR fuel channels, and to provide a detailed prediction of critical heat flux distribution throughout the bundle. The ASSERT subchannel code has been validated extensively against a wide repertoire of experiments; its combination of three-dimensional prediction of local flow conditions with a comprehensive method of predicting critical heat flux (CHF) at these local conditions makes it a unique tool for predicting CHF for situations outside the existing experimental data base. In particular, ASSERT is the only tool available to systematically investigate CHF under conditions of local geometric variations, such as pressure tube creep and fuel element strain. This paper discusses the numerical methodology used in ASSERT, the constitutive relationships incorporated, and the CHF assessment methodology. The evolutionary validation plan is discussed, and early validation exercises are summarized. The paper concentrates, however, on more recent validation exercises in standard and non-standard geometries. 28 refs., 12 figs

Validation of the ASSERT subchannel code: Prediction of critical heat flux in standard and nonstandard CANDU bundle geometries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carver, M.B.; Kiteley, J.C.; Zhou, R.Q.N.; Junop, S.V.; Rowe, D.S.

1995-01-01

The ASSERT code has been developed to address the three-dimensional computation of flow and phase distribution and fuel element surface temperatures within the horizontal subchannels of Canada uranium deuterium (CANDU) pressurized heavy water reactor fuel channels and to provide a detailed prediction of critical heat flux (CHF) distribution throughout the bundle. The ASSERT subchannel code has been validated extensively against a wide repertoire of experiments; its combination of three-dimensional prediction of local flow conditions with a comprehensive method of predicting CHF at these local conditions makes it a unique tool for predicting CHF for situations outside the existing experimental database. In particular, ASSERT is an appropriate tool to systematically investigate CHF under conditions of local geometric variations, such as pressure tube creep and fuel element strain. The numerical methodology used in ASSERT, the constitutive relationships incorporated, and the CHF assessment methodology are discussed. The evolutionary validation plan is also discussed and early validation exercises are summarized. More recent validation exercises in standard and nonstandard geometries are emphasized

Factor analysis methods and validity evidence: A systematic review of instrument development across the continuum of medical education

Science.gov (United States)

Wetzel, Angela Payne

Previous systematic reviews indicate a lack of reporting of reliability and validity evidence in subsets of the medical education literature. Psychology and general education reviews of factor analysis also indicate gaps between current and best practices; yet, a comprehensive review of exploratory factor analysis in instrument development across the continuum of medical education had not been previously identified. Therefore, the purpose for this study was critical review of instrument development articles employing exploratory factor or principal component analysis published in medical education (2006--2010) to describe and assess the reporting of methods and validity evidence based on the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing and factor analysis best practices. Data extraction of 64 articles measuring a variety of constructs that have been published throughout the peer-reviewed medical education literature indicate significant errors in the translation of exploratory factor analysis best practices to current practice. Further, techniques for establishing validity evidence tend to derive from a limited scope of methods including reliability statistics to support internal structure and support for test content. Instruments reviewed for this study lacked supporting evidence based on relationships with other variables and response process, and evidence based on consequences of testing was not evident. Findings suggest a need for further professional development within the medical education researcher community related to (1) appropriate factor analysis methodology and reporting and (2) the importance of pursuing multiple sources of reliability and validity evidence to construct a well-supported argument for the inferences made from the instrument. Medical education researchers and educators should be cautious in adopting instruments from the literature and carefully review available evidence. Finally, editors and reviewers are encouraged to recognize

Six factors of adult dyslexia assesed by cognitive tests and self-report questions: Very high predictive validity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tamboer, P.; Vorst, H.C.M.; de Jong, P.F.

2017-01-01

The Multiple Diagnostic Digital Dyslexia Test for Adults (MDDDT-A) consists of 12 newly developed tests and self-report questions in the Dutch language. Predictive validity and construct validity were investigated and compared with validity of a standard test battery of dyslexia (STB) in a sample of

Recurrent epistaxis: predicting risk of 30-day readmission, derivation and validation of RHINO-ooze score.

Science.gov (United States)

Addison, A; Paul, C; Kuo, R; Lamyman, A; Martinez-Devesa, P; Hettige, R

2017-06-01

To derive and validate a predictive scoring tool (RHINO-ooze score) with good sensitivity and specificity in identifying patients with epistaxis at high risk of 30 day readmission and to enable risk stratification for possible definitive intervention. Using medical databases, we searched for factors influencing recurrent epistaxis. The information ascertained together with our analysis of retrospective data on patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2013 and September 2014, was used as the derivation cohort to develop the predictive scoring model (RHINO-ooze score). The tool was validated by performing statistical analysis on the validation cohort of patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2014 and October 2015. Multiple linear regressions with backwards elimination was used to derive the predictive model. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated. 834 admissions were encountered within the study period. Using the derivative cohort (n= 302) the RHINO-ooze score with a maximum score of 8 from five variables (Recent admission, Haemorrhage point unidentified, Increasing age over 70, posterior Nasal packing, Oral anticoagulant) was developed. The RHINO-ooze score had a chi-square value of 99.72 with a significance level of smaller than 0.0001 and hence an overall good model fit. Comparison between the derivative and validation groups revealed similar rates of 30-day readmission between the cohorts. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting 30-day readmission in high risk patients with recurrent epistaxis (RHINO-ooze score equal/larger than 6) was 81% and 84%, respectively. The RHINO-ooze scoring tool demonstrates good specificity and sensitivity in predicting the risk of 30 day readmission in patients with epistaxis and can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision making with regards to timing of operative intervention in order to reduce readmission rates.

Assessment and validation of the CAESAR predictive model for bioconcentration factor (BCF in fish

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milan Chiara

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Bioconcentration factor (BCF describes the behaviour of a chemical in terms of its likelihood of concentrating in organisms in the environment. It is a fundamental property in recent regulations, such as the European Community Regulation on chemicals and their safe use or the Globally Harmonized System for classification, labelling and packaging. These new regulations consider the possibility of reducing or waiving animal tests using alternative methods, such as in silico methods. This study assessed and validated the CAESAR predictive model for BCF in fish. Results To validate the model, new experimental data were collected and used to create an external set, as a second validation set (a first validation exercise had been done just after model development. The performance of the model was compared with BCFBAF v3.00. For continuous values and for classification purposes the CAESAR BCF model gave better results than BCFBAF v3.00 for the chemicals in the applicability domain of the model. R2 and Q2 were good and accuracy in classification higher than 90%. Applying an offset of 0.5 to the compounds predicted with BCF close to the thresholds, the number of false negatives (the most dangerous errors dropped considerably (less than 0.6% of chemicals. Conclusions The CAESAR model for BCF is useful for regulatory purposes because it is robust, reliable and predictive. It is also fully transparent and documented and has a well-defined applicability domain, as required by REACH. The model is freely available on the CAESAR web site and easy to use. The reliability of the model reporting the six most similar compounds found in the CAESAR dataset, and their experimental and predicted values, can be evaluated.

Collecting Validity Evidence for Simulation-Based Assessment of Point-of-Care Ultrasound Skills

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jesper Kørup; Dyre, Liv; Jørgensen, Mattis Enggaard

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the validity of a simulator test designed to evaluate focused assessment with sonography for trauma (FAST) skills. METHODS: Participants included a group of ultrasound novices (n = 25) and ultrasound experts (n = 10). All participants had their FAST...... skills assessed using a virtual reality ultrasound simulator. Procedural performance on the 4 FAST windows was assessed by automated simulator metrics, which received a passing or failing score. The validity evidence for these simulator metrics was examined by a stepwise approach according...

Capability beliefs regarding evidence-based practice are associated with application of EBP and research use: validation of a new measure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallin, Lars; Boström, Anne-Marie; Gustavsson, J Petter

2012-08-01

Beliefs about capabilities, or self-efficacy, is a construct originating in social cognitive psychology. Capability beliefs have been found to be positively associated with intention and healthcare practice behaviour. A measure of an individual's beliefs about his/her capability to apply the components of evidence-based practice (EBP) has potential to be useful in implementation research. To evaluate the concurrent validity and internal structure of a new scale measuring nurses' capability beliefs regarding EBP. Data were taken from a prospective longitudinal study in Sweden (the Longitudinal Analyses of Nursing Education and Entry in Worklife [LANE]). A cohort of nursing students who graduated in the autumn of 2004 that was followed up 2 years after their graduation was used (n= 1,256). Concurrent validity was tested relating different levels of capability beliefs to extent of research use and application of EBP. An item-response approach was applied in the evaluation of internal structure of the proposed scale (six items). The psychometric analyses indicated that the six items could be summed to reflect a one-dimensional scale. Nurses with the highest level of capability beliefs reported that they used research findings in clinical practice more than twice as often as those with lower levels of capability beliefs. They also participated in the implementation of evidence seven times more often. There is a need for further studies of the construct and predictive validity of the scale. It should also be validated in other groups of health professionals. Learning including mastery experiences, role modelling, social persuasion, and manageable stress could be used in undergraduate education as well as practice development to increase beliefs about capabilities which might open the way to increased application of EBP in healthcare practice. This new measure is well grounded in social cognitive theory, functions as a one-dimensional scale and possesses promising

The predictive validity of the BioMedical Admissions Test for pre-clinical examination performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Emery, Joanne L; Bell, John F

2009-06-01

Some medical courses in the UK have many more applicants than places and almost all applicants have the highest possible previous and predicted examination grades. The BioMedical Admissions Test (BMAT) was designed to assist in the student selection process specifically for a number of 'traditional' medical courses with clear pre-clinical and clinical phases and a strong focus on science teaching in the early years. It is intended to supplement the information provided by examination results, interviews and personal statements. This paper reports on the predictive validity of the BMAT and its predecessor, the Medical and Veterinary Admissions Test. Results from the earliest 4 years of the test (2000-2003) were matched to the pre-clinical examination results of those accepted onto the medical course at the University of Cambridge. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were performed for each cohort. Section 2 of the test ('Scientific Knowledge') correlated more strongly with examination marks than did Section 1 ('Aptitude and Skills'). It also had a stronger relationship with the probability of achieving the highest examination class. The BMAT and its predecessor demonstrate predictive validity for the pre-clinical years of the medical course at the University of Cambridge. The test identifies important differences in skills and knowledge between candidates, not shown by their previous attainment, which predict their examination performance. It is thus a valid source of additional admissions information for medical courses with a strong scientific emphasis when previous attainment is very high.

The behavioral regulation in sport questionnaire (BRSQ): instrument development and initial validity evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Lonsdale, Chris; Hodge, Ken; Rose, Elaine A

2008-06-01

The purpose of the four studies described in this article was to develop and test a new measure of competitive sport participants' intrinsic motivation, extrinsic motivation, and amotivation (self-determination theory; Deci & Ryan, 1985). The items for the new measure, named the Behavioral Regulation in Sport Questionnaire (BRSQ), were constructed using interviews, expert review, and pilot testing. Analyses supported the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and factorial validity of the BRSQ scores. Nomological validity evidence was also supportive, as BRSQ subscale scores were correlated in the expected pattern with scores derived from measures of motivational consequences. When directly compared with scores derived from the Sport Motivation Scale (SMS; Pelletier, Fortier, Vallerand, Tuson, & Blais, 1995) and a revised version of that questionnaire (SMS-6; Mallett, Kawabata, Newcombe, Otero-Forero, & Jackson, 2007), BRSQ scores demonstrated equal or superior reliability and factorial validity as well as better nomological validity.

Development and validation of a digital work simulation to predict workplace deviance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dubbelt, L.; Oostrom, J.K.; drs. Hiemstra, A.M.F.; Modderman, J.P.L.

2015-01-01

”This paper describes a new and innovative measure that is developed to predict workplace deviance through the measurement of Machiavellianism and Compliant Behavior. Two field studies were conducted to study the validity of the digital work simulation. In Study 1, (N = 113) support was found for

Evidence Based Validation of Indian Traditional Medicine – Way Forward

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pulok K Mukherjee

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Evidence based validation of the ethno-pharmacological claims on traditional medicine (TM is the need of the day for its globalization and reinforcement. Combining the unique features of identifying biomarkers that are highly conserved across species, this can offer an innovative approach to biomarker-driven drug discovery and development. TMs are an integral component of alternative health care systems. India has a rich wealth of TMs and the potential to accept the challenge to meet the global demand for them. Ayurveda, Yoga, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy (AYUSH medicine are the major healthcare systems in Indian Traditional Medicine. The plant species mentioned in the ancient texts of these systems may be explored with the modern scientific approaches for better leads in the healthcare. TM is the best sources of chemical diversity for finding new drugs and leads. Authentication and scientific validation of medicinal plant is a fundamental requirement of industry and other organizations dealing with herbal drugs. Quality control (QC of botanicals, validated processes of manufacturing, customer awareness and post marketing surveillance are the key points, which could ensure the quality, safety and efficacy of TM. For globalization of TM, there is a need for harmonization with respect to its chemical and metabolite profiling, standardization, QC, scientific validation, documentation and regulatory aspects of TM. Therefore, the utmost attention is necessary for the promotion and development of TM through global collaboration and co-ordination by national and international programme.

Trainees' Perceptions of Feedback: Validity Evidence for Two FEEDME (Feedback in Medical Education) Instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

Bing-You, Robert; Ramesh, Saradha; Hayes, Victoria; Varaklis, Kalli; Ward, Denham; Blanco, Maria

2018-01-01

Construct: Medical educators consider feedback a core component of the educational process. Effective feedback allows learners to acquire new skills, knowledge, and attitudes. Learners' perceptions of feedback are an important aspect to assess with valid methods in order to improve the feedback skills of educators and the feedback culture. Although guidelines for delivering effective feedback have existed for several decades, medical students and residents often indicate that they receive little feedback. A recent scoping review on feedback in medical education did not reveal any validity evidence on instruments to assess learner's perceptions of feedback. The purpose of our study was to gather validity evidence on two novel FEEDME (Feedback in Medical Education) instruments to assess medical students' and residents' perceptions of the feedback that they receive. After the authors developed an initial instrument with 54 items, cognitive interviews with medical students and residents suggested that 2 separate instruments were needed, one focused on the feedback culture (FEEDME-Culture) and the other on the provider of feedback (FEEDME-Provider). A Delphi study with 17 medical education experts and faculty members assessed content validity. The response process was explored involving 31 medical students and residents at 2 academic institutions. Exploratory factor analysis and reliability analyses were performed on completed instruments. Two Delphi consultation rounds refined the wording of items and eliminated several items. Learners found both instruments easy and quick to answer; it took them less than 5 minutes to complete. Learners preferred an electronic format of the instruments over paper. Factor analysis revealed a two- and three-factor solution for the FEEDME-Culture and FEEDME-Provider instruments, respectively. Cronbach's alpha was greater than 0.80 for all factors. Items on both instruments were moderately to highly correlated (range, r = .3-.7). Our

Musical Preferences Predict Personality: Evidence From Active Listening and Facebook Likes.

Science.gov (United States)

Nave, Gideon; Minxha, Juri; Greenberg, David M; Kosinski, Michal; Stillwell, David; Rentfrow, Jason

2018-03-01

Research over the past decade has shown that various personality traits are communicated through musical preferences. One limitation of that research is external validity, as most studies have assessed individual differences in musical preferences using self-reports of music-genre preferences. Are personality traits communicated through behavioral manifestations of musical preferences? We addressed this question in two large-scale online studies with demographically diverse populations. Study 1 ( N = 22,252) shows that reactions to unfamiliar musical excerpts predicted individual differences in personality-most notably, openness and extraversion-above and beyond demographic characteristics. Moreover, these personality traits were differentially associated with particular music-preference dimensions. The results from Study 2 ( N = 21,929) replicated and extended these findings by showing that an active measure of naturally occurring behavior, Facebook Likes for musical artists, also predicted individual differences in personality. In general, our findings establish the robustness and external validity of the links between musical preferences and personality.

External validation of approaches to prediction of falls during hospital rehabilitation stays and development of a new simpler tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angela Vratsistas-Curto

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Objectives: To test the external validity of 4 approaches to fall prediction in a rehabilitation setting (Predict_FIRST, Ontario Modified STRATIFY (OMS, physiotherapists’ judgement of fall risk (PT_Risk, and falls in the past year (Past_Falls, and to develop and test the validity of a simpler tool for fall prediction in rehabilitation (Predict_CM2. Participants: A total of 300 consecutively-admitted rehabilitation inpatients. Methods: Prospective inception cohort study. Falls during the rehabilitation stay were monitored. Potential predictors were extracted from medical records. Results: Forty-one patients (14% fell during their rehabilitation stay. The external validity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC, for predicting future fallers was: 0.71 (95% confidence interval (95% CI: 0.61–0.81 for OMS (Total_Score; 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57–0.74 for Predict_FIRST; 0.65 (95% CI 0.57–0.73 for PT_Risk; and 0.52 for Past_Falls (95% CI: 0.46–0.60. A simple 3-item tool (Predict_CM2 was developed from the most predictive individual items (impaired mobility/transfer ability, impaired cognition, and male sex. The accuracy of Predict_CM2 was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.66–0.81, comparable to OMS (Total_Score (p = 0.52, significantly better than Predict_FIRST (p = 0.04, and Past_Falls (p < 0.001, and approaching significantly better than PT_Risk (p = 0.09. Conclusion: Predict_CM2 is a simpler screening tool with similar accuracy for predicting fallers in rehabilitation to OMS (Total_Score and better accuracy than Predict_FIRST or Past_Falls. External validation of Predict_CM2 is required.

A method for the statistical interpretation of friction ridge skin impression evidence: Method development and validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Swofford, H J; Koertner, A J; Zemp, F; Ausdemore, M; Liu, A; Salyards, M J

2018-04-03

The forensic fingerprint community has faced increasing amounts of criticism by scientific and legal commentators, challenging the validity and reliability of fingerprint evidence due to the lack of an empirically demonstrable basis to evaluate and report the strength of the evidence in a given case. This paper presents a method, developed as a stand-alone software application, FRStat, which provides a statistical assessment of the strength of fingerprint evidence. The performance was evaluated using a variety of mated and non-mated datasets. The results show strong performance characteristics, often with values supporting specificity rates greater than 99%. This method provides fingerprint experts the capability to demonstrate the validity and reliability of fingerprint evidence in a given case and report the findings in a more transparent and standardized fashion with clearly defined criteria for conclusions and known error rate information thereby responding to concerns raised by the scientific and legal communities. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Is the readmission rate a valid quality indicator? A review of the evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fischer, Claudia; Lingsma, Hester F.; Marang-van de Mheen, Perla J.; Kringos, Dionne S.; Klazinga, Niek S.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2014-01-01

Hospital readmission rates are increasingly used for both quality improvement and cost control. However, the validity of readmission rates as a measure of quality of hospital care is not evident. We aimed to give an overview of the different methodological aspects in the definition and measurement

External validation of models predicting the individual risk of metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis from colon and rectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Segelman, J; Akre, O; Gustafsson, U O; Bottai, M; Martling, A

2016-04-01

To externally validate previously published predictive models of the risk of developing metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) after resection of nonmetastatic colon or rectal cancer and to update the predictive model for colon cancer by adding new prognostic predictors. Data from all patients with Stage I-III colorectal cancer identified from a population-based database in Stockholm between 2008 and 2010 were used. We assessed the concordance between the predicted and observed probabilities of PC and utilized proportional-hazard regression to update the predictive model for colon cancer. When applied to the new validation dataset (n = 2011), the colon and rectal cancer risk-score models predicted metachronous PC with a concordance index of 79% and 67%, respectively. After adding the subclasses of pT3 and pT4 stage and mucinous tumour to the colon cancer model, the concordance index increased to 82%. In validation of external and recent cohorts, the predictive accuracy was strong in colon cancer and moderate in rectal cancer patients. The model can be used to identify high-risk patients for planned second-look laparoscopy/laparotomy for possible subsequent cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Perioperative Respiratory Adverse Events in Pediatric Ambulatory Anesthesia: Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Subramanyam, Rajeev; Yeramaneni, Samrat; Hossain, Mohamed Monir; Anneken, Amy M; Varughese, Anna M

2016-05-01

Perioperative respiratory adverse events (PRAEs) are the most common cause of serious adverse events in children receiving anesthesia. Our primary aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction tool for the occurrence of PRAE from the onset of anesthesia induction until discharge from the postanesthesia care unit in children younger than 18 years undergoing elective ambulatory anesthesia for surgery and radiology. The incidence of PRAE was studied. We analyzed data from 19,059 patients from our department's quality improvement database. The predictor variables were age, sex, ASA physical status, morbid obesity, preexisting pulmonary disorder, preexisting neurologic disorder, and location of ambulatory anesthesia (surgery or radiology). Composite PRAE was defined as the presence of any 1 of the following events: intraoperative bronchospasm, intraoperative laryngospasm, postoperative apnea, postoperative laryngospasm, postoperative bronchospasm, or postoperative prolonged oxygen requirement. Development and validation of the risk prediction tool for PRAE were performed using a split sampling technique to split the database into 2 independent cohorts based on the year when the patient received ambulatory anesthesia for surgery and radiology using logistic regression. A risk score was developed based on the regression coefficients from the validation tool. The performance of the risk prediction tool was assessed by using tests of discrimination and calibration. The overall incidence of composite PRAE was 2.8%. The derivation cohort included 8904 patients, and the validation cohort included 10,155 patients. The risk of PRAE was 3.9% in the development cohort and 1.8% in the validation cohort. Age ≤ 3 years (versus >3 years), ASA physical status II or III (versus ASA physical status I), morbid obesity, preexisting pulmonary disorder, and surgery (versus radiology) significantly predicted the occurrence of PRAE in a multivariable logistic regression

Validation of the assert subchannel code: Prediction of CHF in standard and non-standard Candu bundle geometries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carver, M.B.; Kiteley, J.C.; Zhou, R.Q.N.; Junop, S.V.; Rowe, D.S.

1993-01-01

The ASSERT code has been developed to address the three-dimensional computation of flow and phase distribution and fuel element surface temperatures within the horizontal subchannels of CANDU PHWR fuel channels, and to provide a detailed prediction of critical heat flux (CHF) distribution throughout the bundle. The ASSERT subchannel code has been validated extensively against a wide repertoire of experiments; its combination of three-dimensional prediction of local flow conditions with a comprehensive method of prediting CHF at these local conditions, makes it a unique tool for predicting CHF for situations outside the existing experimental data base. In particular, ASSERT is an appropriate tool to systematically investigate CHF under conditions of local geometric variations, such as pressure tube creep and fuel element strain. This paper discusses the numerical methodology used in ASSERT, the constitutive relationships incorporated, and the CHF assessment methodology. The evolutionary validation plan is discussed, and early validation exercises are summarized. The paper concentrates, however, on more recent validation exercises in standard and non-standard geometries

Self-perceived Coparenting of Nonresident Fathers: Scale Development and Validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Dyer, W Justin; Fagan, Jay; Kaufman, Rebecca; Pearson, Jessica; Cabrera, Natasha

2017-11-16

This study reports on the development and validation of the Fatherhood Research and Practice Network coparenting perceptions scale for nonresident fathers. Although other measures of coparenting have been developed, this is the first measure developed specifically for low-income, nonresident fathers. Focus groups were conducted to determine various aspects of coparenting. Based on this, a scale was created and administered to 542 nonresident fathers. Participants also responded to items used to examine convergent and predictive validity (i.e., parental responsibility, contact with the mother, father self-efficacy and satisfaction, child behavior problems, and contact and engagement with the child). Factor analyses and reliability tests revealed three distinct and reliable perceived coparenting factors: undermining, alliance, and gatekeeping. Validity tests suggest substantial overlap between the undermining and alliance factors, though undermining was uniquely related to child behavior problems. The alliance and gatekeeping factors showed strong convergent validity and evidence for predictive validity. Taken together, results suggest this relatively short measure (11 items) taps into three coparenting dimensions significantly predictive of aspects of individual and family life. © 2017 Family Process Institute.

Large-scale international validation of the ADO index in subjects with COPD: an individual subject data analysis of 10 cohorts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Puhan, Milo A; Hansel, Nadia N; Sobradillo, Patricia

2012-01-01

Background: Little evidence on the validity of simple and widely applicable tools to predict mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exists.Objective: To conduct a large international study to validate the ADO index that uses age, dyspnoea and FEV1 to predict 3-yea...

Predicting survival of de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asian women: systematic review and validation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Miao, Hui; Hartman, Mikael; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala; Lee, Soo-Chin; Taib, Nur Aishah; Tan, Ern-Yu; Chan, Patrick; Moons, Karel G M; Wong, Hoong-Seam; Goh, Jeremy; Rahim, Siti Mastura; Yip, Cheng-Har; Verkooijen, Helena M

2014-01-01

In Asia, up to 25% of breast cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. Given the heterogeneous survival probabilities of de novo metastatic breast cancer, individual outcome prediction is challenging. The aim of the study is to identify existing prognostic models for patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer and validate them in Asia. We performed a systematic review to identify prediction models for metastatic breast cancer. Models were validated in 642 women with de novo metastatic breast cancer registered between 2000 and 2010 in the Singapore Malaysia Hospital Based Breast Cancer Registry. Survival curves for low, intermediate and high-risk groups according to each prognostic score were compared by log-rank test and discrimination of the models was assessed by concordance statistic (C-statistic). We identified 16 prediction models, seven of which were for patients with brain metastases only. Performance status, estrogen receptor status, metastatic site(s) and disease-free interval were the most common predictors. We were able to validate nine prediction models. The capacity of the models to discriminate between poor and good survivors varied from poor to fair with C-statistics ranging from 0.50 (95% CI, 0.48-0.53) to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.66). The discriminatory performance of existing prediction models for de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asia is modest. Development of an Asian-specific prediction model is needed to improve prognostication and guide decision making.

Predicting survival of de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asian women: systematic review and validation study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui Miao

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In Asia, up to 25% of breast cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. Given the heterogeneous survival probabilities of de novo metastatic breast cancer, individual outcome prediction is challenging. The aim of the study is to identify existing prognostic models for patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer and validate them in Asia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a systematic review to identify prediction models for metastatic breast cancer. Models were validated in 642 women with de novo metastatic breast cancer registered between 2000 and 2010 in the Singapore Malaysia Hospital Based Breast Cancer Registry. Survival curves for low, intermediate and high-risk groups according to each prognostic score were compared by log-rank test and discrimination of the models was assessed by concordance statistic (C-statistic. RESULTS: We identified 16 prediction models, seven of which were for patients with brain metastases only. Performance status, estrogen receptor status, metastatic site(s and disease-free interval were the most common predictors. We were able to validate nine prediction models. The capacity of the models to discriminate between poor and good survivors varied from poor to fair with C-statistics ranging from 0.50 (95% CI, 0.48-0.53 to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.66. CONCLUSION: The discriminatory performance of existing prediction models for de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asia is modest. Development of an Asian-specific prediction model is needed to improve prognostication and guide decision making.

Validity and validation of expert (Q)SAR systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Hulzebos, E; Sijm, D; Traas, T; Posthumus, R; Maslankiewicz, L

2005-08-01

At a recent workshop in Setubal (Portugal) principles were drafted to assess the suitability of (quantitative) structure-activity relationships ((Q)SARs) for assessing the hazards and risks of chemicals. In the present study we applied some of the Setubal principles to test the validity of three (Q)SAR expert systems and validate the results. These principles include a mechanistic basis, the availability of a training set and validation. ECOSAR, BIOWIN and DEREK for Windows have a mechanistic or empirical basis. ECOSAR has a training set for each QSAR. For half of the structural fragments the number of chemicals in the training set is >4. Based on structural fragments and log Kow, ECOSAR uses linear regression to predict ecotoxicity. Validating ECOSAR for three 'valid' classes results in predictivity of > or = 64%. BIOWIN uses (non-)linear regressions to predict the probability of biodegradability based on fragments and molecular weight. It has a large training set and predicts non-ready biodegradability well. DEREK for Windows predictions are supported by a mechanistic rationale and literature references. The structural alerts in this program have been developed with a training set of positive and negative toxicity data. However, to support the prediction only a limited number of chemicals in the training set is presented to the user. DEREK for Windows predicts effects by 'if-then' reasoning. The program predicts best for mutagenicity and carcinogenicity. Each structural fragment in ECOSAR and DEREK for Windows needs to be evaluated and validated separately.

Status self-validation of a multifunctional sensor using a multivariate relevance vector machine and predictive filters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Zhengguang; Wang, Qi

2013-01-01

A novel strategy by using a multivariable relevance vector machine coupled with predictive filters for status self-validation of a multifunctional sensor is proposed. The working principle and online updating algorithm of predictive filters are emphasized for multiple fault detection, isolation and recovery (FDIR), and the incorrect sensor measurements are validated online. The multivariable relevance vector machine is then employed for the signal reconstruction of the multifunctional sensor to generate the final validated measurement values (VMV) of multiple measured components, in which its advantages of sparse models and multivariable simultaneous outputs are fully used. With all likely uncertainty sources of the multifunctional self-validating sensor taken into account, the uncertainty propagation model is deduced in detail to evaluate the online validated uncertainty (VU) under a fault-free situation while a qualitative uncertainty component is appended to indicate the accuracy changes of VMV under different types of fault. A real experimental system of a multifunctional self-validating sensor is designed to verify the performance of the proposed strategy. From the real-time capacity and fault recovery accuracy of FDIR, and runtime of signal reconstruction under small samples, a performance comparison among different methods is made. Results demonstrate that the proposed scheme provides a better solution to the status self-validation of a multifunctional self-validating sensor under both normal and abnormal situations. (paper)

An evidence-based decision assistance model for predicting training outcome in juvenile guide dogs.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Naomi D; Craigon, Peter J; Blythe, Simon A; England, Gary C W; Asher, Lucy

2017-01-01

Working dog organisations, such as Guide Dogs, need to regularly assess the behaviour of the dogs they train. In this study we developed a questionnaire-style behaviour assessment completed by training supervisors of juvenile guide dogs aged 5, 8 and 12 months old (n = 1,401), and evaluated aspects of its reliability and validity. Specifically, internal reliability, temporal consistency, construct validity, predictive criterion validity (comparing against later training outcome) and concurrent criterion validity (comparing against a standardised behaviour test) were evaluated. Thirty-nine questions were sourced either from previously published literature or created to meet requirements identified via Guide Dogs staff surveys and staff feedback. Internal reliability analyses revealed seven reliable and interpretable trait scales named according to the questions within them as: Adaptability; Body Sensitivity; Distractibility; Excitability; General Anxiety; Trainability and Stair Anxiety. Intra-individual temporal consistency of the scale scores between 5-8, 8-12 and 5-12 months was high. All scales excepting Body Sensitivity showed some degree of concurrent criterion validity. Predictive criterion validity was supported for all seven scales, since associations were found with training outcome, at at-least one age. Thresholds of z-scores on the scales were identified that were able to distinguish later training outcome by identifying 8.4% of all dogs withdrawn for behaviour and 8.5% of all qualified dogs, with 84% and 85% specificity. The questionnaire assessment was reliable and could detect traits that are consistent within individuals over time, despite juvenile dogs undergoing development during the study period. By applying thresholds to scores produced from the questionnaire this assessment could prove to be a highly valuable decision-making tool for Guide Dogs. This is the first questionnaire-style assessment of juvenile dogs that has shown value in predicting

Characterization and validation of an in silico toxicology model to predict the mutagenic potential of drug impurities*

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valerio, Luis G., E-mail: luis.valerio@fda.hhs.gov [Science and Research Staff, Office of Pharmaceutical Science, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 10903 New Hampshire Avenue, Silver Spring, MD 20993–0002 (United States); Cross, Kevin P. [Leadscope, Inc., 1393 Dublin Road, Columbus, OH, 43215–1084 (United States)

2012-05-01

Control and minimization of human exposure to potential genotoxic impurities found in drug substances and products is an important part of preclinical safety assessments of new drug products. The FDA's 2008 draft guidance on genotoxic and carcinogenic impurities in drug substances and products allows use of computational quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSAR) to identify structural alerts for known and expected impurities present at levels below qualified thresholds. This study provides the information necessary to establish the practical use of a new in silico toxicology model for predicting Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of drug impurities and other chemicals. We describe the model's chemical content and toxicity fingerprint in terms of compound space, molecular and structural toxicophores, and have rigorously tested its predictive power using both cross-validation and external validation experiments, as well as case studies. Consistent with desired regulatory use, the model performs with high sensitivity (81%) and high negative predictivity (81%) based on external validation with 2368 compounds foreign to the model and having known mutagenicity. A database of drug impurities was created from proprietary FDA submissions and the public literature which found significant overlap between the structural features of drug impurities and training set chemicals in the QSAR model. Overall, the model's predictive performance was found to be acceptable for screening drug impurities for Salmonella mutagenicity. -- Highlights: ► We characterize a new in silico model to predict mutagenicity of drug impurities. ► The model predicts Salmonella mutagenicity and will be useful for safety assessment. ► We examine toxicity fingerprints and toxicophores of this Ames assay model. ► We compare these attributes to those found in drug impurities known to FDA/CDER. ► We validate the model and find it has a desired predictive

Characterization and validation of an in silico toxicology model to predict the mutagenic potential of drug impurities*

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valerio, Luis G.; Cross, Kevin P.

2012-01-01

Control and minimization of human exposure to potential genotoxic impurities found in drug substances and products is an important part of preclinical safety assessments of new drug products. The FDA's 2008 draft guidance on genotoxic and carcinogenic impurities in drug substances and products allows use of computational quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSAR) to identify structural alerts for known and expected impurities present at levels below qualified thresholds. This study provides the information necessary to establish the practical use of a new in silico toxicology model for predicting Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of drug impurities and other chemicals. We describe the model's chemical content and toxicity fingerprint in terms of compound space, molecular and structural toxicophores, and have rigorously tested its predictive power using both cross-validation and external validation experiments, as well as case studies. Consistent with desired regulatory use, the model performs with high sensitivity (81%) and high negative predictivity (81%) based on external validation with 2368 compounds foreign to the model and having known mutagenicity. A database of drug impurities was created from proprietary FDA submissions and the public literature which found significant overlap between the structural features of drug impurities and training set chemicals in the QSAR model. Overall, the model's predictive performance was found to be acceptable for screening drug impurities for Salmonella mutagenicity. -- Highlights: ► We characterize a new in silico model to predict mutagenicity of drug impurities. ► The model predicts Salmonella mutagenicity and will be useful for safety assessment. ► We examine toxicity fingerprints and toxicophores of this Ames assay model. ► We compare these attributes to those found in drug impurities known to FDA/CDER. ► We validate the model and find it has a desired predictive performance.

Multivariable prediction model for suspected giant cell arteritis: development and validation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ing EB

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Edsel B Ing,1 Gabriela Lahaie Luna,2 Andrew Toren,3 Royce Ing,4 John J Chen,5 Nitika Arora,6 Nurhan Torun,7 Otana A Jakpor,8 J Alexander Fraser,9 Felix J Tyndel,10 Arun NE Sundaram,10 Xinyang Liu,11 Cindy TY Lam,1 Vivek Patel,12 Ezekiel Weis,13 David Jordan,14 Steven Gilberg,14 Christian Pagnoux,15 Martin ten Hove21Department of Ophthalmology and Vision Sciences, University of Toronto Medical School, Toronto, 2Department of Ophthalmology, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, 3Department of Ophthalmology, University of Laval, Quebec, QC, 4Toronto Eyelid, Strabismus and Orbit Surgery Clinic, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Mayo Clinic, Department of Ophthalmology and Neurology, 6Mayo Clinic, Department of Ophthalmology, Rochester, MN, 7Department of Surgery, Division of Ophthalmology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 8Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; 9Department of Clinical Neurological Sciences and Ophthalmology, Western University, London, 10Department of Medicine, University of Toronto Medical School, Toronto, ON, Canada; 11Department of Medicine, Fudan University Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 12Roski Eye Institute, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; 13Departments of Ophthalmology, Universities of Alberta and Calgary, Edmonton and Calgary, AB, 14Department of Ophthalmology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, 15Vasculitis Clinic, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, ON, CanadaPurpose: To develop and validate a diagnostic prediction model for patients with suspected giant cell arteritis (GCA.Methods: A retrospective review of records of consecutive adult patients undergoing temporal artery biopsy (TABx for suspected GCA was conducted at seven university centers. The pathologic diagnosis was considered the final diagnosis. The predictor variables were age, gender, new onset headache, clinical temporal artery abnormality, jaw claudication, ischemic vision loss (VL, diplopia

Predicting risk behaviors: development and validation of a diagnostic scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Witte, K; Cameron, K A; McKeon, J K; Berkowitz, J M

1996-01-01

The goal of this study was to develop and validate the Risk Behavior Diagnosis (RBD) Scale for use by health care providers and practitioners interested in promoting healthy behaviors. Theoretically guided by the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM; a fear appeal theory), the RBD scale was designed to work in conjunction with an easy-to-use formula to determine which types of health risk messages would be most appropriate for a given individual or audience. Because some health risk messages promote behavior change and others backfire, this type of scale offers guidance to practitioners on how to develop the best persuasive message possible to motivate healthy behaviors. The results of the study demonstrate the RBD scale to have a high degree of content, construct, and predictive validity. Specific examples and practical suggestions are offered to facilitate use of the scale for health practitioners.

The validation of forensic DNA extraction systems to utilize soil contaminated biological evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kasu, Mohaimin; Shires, Karen

2015-07-01

The production of full DNA profiles from biological evidence found in soil has a high failure rate due largely to the inhibitory substance humic acid (HA). Abundant in various natural soils, HA co-extracts with DNA during extraction and inhibits DNA profiling by binding to the molecular components of the genotyping assay. To successfully utilize traces of soil contaminated evidence, such as that found at many murder and rape crime scenes in South Africa, a reliable HA removal extraction system would often be selected based on previous validation studies. However, for many standard forensic DNA extraction systems, peer-reviewed publications detailing the efficacy on soil evidence is either lacking or is incomplete. Consequently, these sample types are often not collected or fail to yield suitable DNA material due to the use of unsuitable methodology. The aim of this study was to validate the common forensic DNA collection and extraction systems used in South Africa, namely DNA IQ, FTA elute and Nucleosave for processing blood and saliva contaminated with HA. A forensic appropriate volume of biological evidence was spiked with HA (0, 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 mg/ml) and processed through each extraction protocol for the evaluation of HA removal using QPCR and STR-genotyping. The DNA IQ magnetic bead system effectively removed HA from highly contaminated blood and saliva, and generated consistently acceptable STR profiles from both artificially spiked samples and crude soil samples. This system is highly recommended for use on soil-contaminated evidence over the cellulose card-based systems currently being preferentially used for DNA sample collection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation and uncertainty analysis of a pre-treatment 2D dose prediction model

Science.gov (United States)

Baeza, Jose A.; Wolfs, Cecile J. A.; Nijsten, Sebastiaan M. J. J. G.; Verhaegen, Frank

2018-02-01

Independent verification of complex treatment delivery with megavolt photon beam radiotherapy (RT) has been effectively used to detect and prevent errors. This work presents the validation and uncertainty analysis of a model that predicts 2D portal dose images (PDIs) without a patient or phantom in the beam. The prediction model is based on an exponential point dose model with separable primary and secondary photon fluence components. The model includes a scatter kernel, off-axis ratio map, transmission values and penumbra kernels for beam-delimiting components. These parameters were derived through a model fitting procedure supplied with point dose and dose profile measurements of radiation fields. The model was validated against a treatment planning system (TPS; Eclipse) and radiochromic film measurements for complex clinical scenarios, including volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Confidence limits on fitted model parameters were calculated based on simulated measurements. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of the parameter uncertainties on the model output. For the maximum uncertainty, the maximum deviating measurement sets were propagated through the fitting procedure and the model. The overall uncertainty was assessed using all simulated measurements. The validation of the prediction model against the TPS and the film showed a good agreement, with on average 90.8% and 90.5% of pixels passing a (2%,2 mm) global gamma analysis respectively, with a low dose threshold of 10%. The maximum and overall uncertainty of the model is dependent on the type of clinical plan used as input. The results can be used to study the robustness of the model. A model for predicting accurate 2D pre-treatment PDIs in complex RT scenarios can be used clinically and its uncertainties can be taken into account.

Pathogens and politics: further evidence that parasite prevalence predicts authoritarianism.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Damian R; Schaller, Mark; Suedfeld, Peter

2013-01-01

According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat-famine-also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities.

Validity Evidence for the Measurement of the Strength of Motivation for Medical School

Science.gov (United States)

Kusurkar, Rashmi; Croiset, Gerda; Kruitwagen, Cas; ten Cate, Olle

2011-01-01

The Strength of Motivation for Medical School (SMMS) questionnaire is designed to determine the strength of motivation of students particularly for medical study. This research was performed to establish the validity evidence for measuring strength of motivation for medical school. Internal structure and relations to other variables were used as…

Short-Term Predictive Validity of Cluster Analytic and Dimensional Classification of Child Behavioral Adjustment in School

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sangwon; Kamphaus, Randy W.; Baker, Jean A.

2006-01-01

A constructive debate over the classification of child psychopathology can be stimulated by investigating the validity of different classification approaches. We examined and compared the short-term predictive validity of cluster analytic and dimensional classifications of child behavioral adjustment in school using the Behavior Assessment System…

Predicting fluid responsiveness with transthoracic echocardiography is not yet evidence based

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wetterslev, M; Haase, N; Johansen, R R

2013-01-01

an integrated tool in the intensive care unit, this systematic review examined studies evaluating the predictive value of TTE for fluid responsiveness. In October 2012, we searched Pubmed, EMBASE and Web of Science for studies evaluating the predictive value of TTE-derived variables for fluid responsiveness...... responsiveness. Of the 4294 evaluated citations, only one study fully met our inclusion criteria. In this study, the predictive value of variations in inferior vena cava diameter (> 16%) for fluid responsiveness was moderate with sensitivity of 71% [95% confidence interval (CI) 44-90], specificity of 100% (95......% CI 73-100) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.90 (95% CI 0.73-0.98). Only one study of TTE-based methods fulfilled the criteria for valid assessment of fluid responsiveness. Before recommending the use of TTE in predicting fluid responsiveness, proper evaluation including...

NoGOA: predicting noisy GO annotations using evidences and sparse representation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Guoxian; Lu, Chang; Wang, Jun

2017-07-21

Gene Ontology (GO) is a community effort to represent functional features of gene products. GO annotations (GOA) provide functional associations between GO terms and gene products. Due to resources limitation, only a small portion of annotations are manually checked by curators, and the others are electronically inferred. Although quality control techniques have been applied to ensure the quality of annotations, the community consistently report that there are still considerable noisy (or incorrect) annotations. Given the wide application of annotations, however, how to identify noisy annotations is an important but yet seldom studied open problem. We introduce a novel approach called NoGOA to predict noisy annotations. NoGOA applies sparse representation on the gene-term association matrix to reduce the impact of noisy annotations, and takes advantage of sparse representation coefficients to measure the semantic similarity between genes. Secondly, it preliminarily predicts noisy annotations of a gene based on aggregated votes from semantic neighborhood genes of that gene. Next, NoGOA estimates the ratio of noisy annotations for each evidence code based on direct annotations in GOA files archived on different periods, and then weights entries of the association matrix via estimated ratios and propagates weights to ancestors of direct annotations using GO hierarchy. Finally, it integrates evidence-weighted association matrix and aggregated votes to predict noisy annotations. Experiments on archived GOA files of six model species (H. sapiens, A. thaliana, S. cerevisiae, G. gallus, B. Taurus and M. musculus) demonstrate that NoGOA achieves significantly better results than other related methods and removing noisy annotations improves the performance of gene function prediction. The comparative study justifies the effectiveness of integrating evidence codes with sparse representation for predicting noisy GO annotations. Codes and datasets are available at http://mlda.swu.edu.cn/codes.php?name=NoGOA .

Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett’s esophagus in an Australian population

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Ireland CJ

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Colin J Ireland,1 Andrea L Gordon,2 Sarah K Thompson,3 David I Watson,4 David C Whiteman,5 Richard L Reed,6 Adrian Esterman1,7 1School of Nursing and Midwifery, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2School of Pharmacy and Medical Science, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 3Discipline of Surgery, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 4Department of Surgery, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 5Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, QLD, Australia; 6Discipline of General Practice, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 7Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett’s esophagus (BE. While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. Materials and methods: A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Results: Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.87. The Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was p=0

Developing and Validating a Survival Prediction Model for NSCLC Patients Through Distributed Learning Across 3 Countries.

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Jochems, Arthur; Deist, Timo M; El Naqa, Issam; Kessler, Marc; Mayo, Chuck; Reeves, Jackson; Jolly, Shruti; Matuszak, Martha; Ten Haken, Randall; van Soest, Johan; Oberije, Cary; Faivre-Finn, Corinne; Price, Gareth; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Lambin, Philippe; Dekker, Andre

2017-10-01

Tools for survival prediction for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiation or radiation therapy are of limited quality. In this work, we developed a predictive model of survival at 2 years. The model is based on a large volume of historical patient data and serves as a proof of concept to demonstrate the distributed learning approach. Clinical data from 698 lung cancer patients, treated with curative intent with chemoradiation or radiation therapy alone, were collected and stored at 2 different cancer institutes (559 patients at Maastro clinic (Netherlands) and 139 at Michigan university [United States]). The model was further validated on 196 patients originating from The Christie (United Kingdon). A Bayesian network model was adapted for distributed learning (the animation can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDJFOxpwqEA). Two-year posttreatment survival was chosen as the endpoint. The Maastro clinic cohort data are publicly available at https://www.cancerdata.org/publication/developing-and-validating-survival-prediction-model-nsclc-patients-through-distributed, and the developed models can be found at www.predictcancer.org. Variables included in the final model were T and N category, age, performance status, and total tumor dose. The model has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 on the external validation set and an AUC of 0.62 on a 5-fold cross validation. A model based on the T and N category performed with an AUC of 0.47 on the validation set, significantly worse than our model (PLearning the model in a centralized or distributed fashion yields a minor difference on the probabilities of the conditional probability tables (0.6%); the discriminative performance of the models on the validation set is similar (P=.26). Distributed learning from federated databases allows learning of predictive models on data originating from multiple institutions while avoiding many of the data-sharing barriers. We believe that

French validation and adaptation of the Grobman nomogram for prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery.

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Haumonte, J-B; Raylet, M; Christophe, M; Mauviel, F; Bertrand, A; Desbriere, R; d'Ercole, C

2018-03-01

To validate Grobman nomogram for predicting vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) in a French population and adapt it. Multicenter retrospective study of maternal and obstetric factors associated with VBAC between May 2012 and May 2013 in 6 maternity units. External validation and adaptation of the prenatal and intrapartum Grobman nomograms for vaginal birth prediction after cesarean delivery in a French cohort. The study included 523 women with previous cesarean deliveries; 70% underwent a trial of labor for a subsequent delivery (n=367) with a success rate of 65% (n=240). In the univariate analysis, 5 factors were associated with successful VBAC: previous vaginal delivery before the cesarean (P6 (P=0.03). A potentially recurrent indication (defined as arrest of dilation or descent as the indication for the previous cesarean) (P=0.039), a hypertensive disorder during pregnancy (P=0.05), and labor induction (P=0.017) were each associated with failed VBAC. External validation of the prenatal and intrapartum Grobman nomograms showed an area under the ROC curve of 69% (95% CI: 0.638, 0.736) and 65% (95% CI: 0.599, 0.700) respectively. Adaptation of the nomogram to the French cohort resulted in the inclusion of the following factors: maternal age, body mass index at last prenatal visit, hypertensive disorder, gestational age at delivery, recurring indication, cervical dilatation, and induction of labor. Its area under the curve to predict successful VBAC was 78% (95% CI: 0.738, 0.825). The nomogram to predict VBAC developed by Grobman et al. is validated in the French population. Adaptation to the French population, by excluding ethnicity, appeared to improve its performance. Impact of the nomogram use on the caesarean section rate has to be validated in a randomized control trial. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Advanced validation of CFD-FDTD combined method using highly applicable solver for reentry blackout prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takahashi, Yusuke

2016-01-01

An analysis model of plasma flow and electromagnetic waves around a reentry vehicle for radio frequency blackout prediction during aerodynamic heating was developed in this study. The model was validated based on experimental results from the radio attenuation measurement program. The plasma flow properties, such as electron number density, in the shock layer and wake region were obtained using a newly developed unstructured grid solver that incorporated real gas effect models and could treat thermochemically non-equilibrium flow. To predict the electromagnetic waves in plasma, a frequency-dependent finite-difference time-domain method was used. Moreover, the complicated behaviour of electromagnetic waves in the plasma layer during atmospheric reentry was clarified at several altitudes. The prediction performance of the combined model was evaluated with profiles and peak values of the electron number density in the plasma layer. In addition, to validate the models, the signal losses measured during communication with the reentry vehicle were directly compared with the predicted results. Based on the study, it was suggested that the present analysis model accurately predicts the radio frequency blackout and plasma attenuation of electromagnetic waves in plasma in communication. (paper)

Measurement of predictive validity in violence risk assessment studies: a second-order systematic review.

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Singh, Jay P; Desmarais, Sarah L; Van Dorn, Richard A

2013-01-01

The objective of the present review was to examine how predictive validity is analyzed and reported in studies of instruments used to assess violence risk. We reviewed 47 predictive validity studies published between 1990 and 2011 of 25 instruments that were included in two recent systematic reviews. Although all studies reported receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and the area under the curve (AUC) performance indicator, this methodology was defined inconsistently and findings often were misinterpreted. In addition, there was between-study variation in benchmarks used to determine whether AUCs were small, moderate, or large in magnitude. Though virtually all of the included instruments were designed to produce categorical estimates of risk - through the use of either actuarial risk bins or structured professional judgments - only a minority of studies calculated performance indicators for these categorical estimates. In addition to AUCs, other performance indicators, such as correlation coefficients, were reported in 60% of studies, but were infrequently defined or interpreted. An investigation of sources of heterogeneity did not reveal significant variation in reporting practices as a function of risk assessment approach (actuarial vs. structured professional judgment), study authorship, geographic location, type of journal (general vs. specialized audience), sample size, or year of publication. Findings suggest a need for standardization of predictive validity reporting to improve comparison across studies and instruments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring Students' Motivation: Validity Evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory

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Jones, Brett D.; Skaggs, Gary

2016-01-01

This study provides validity evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory (MUSIC Inventory; Jones, 2012), which measures college students' beliefs related to the five components of the MUSIC Model of Motivation (MUSIC model; Jones, 2009). The MUSIC model is a conceptual framework for five categories of teaching strategies (i.e.,…

Validation of the Portuguese version of the Evidence-Based Practice Questionnaire

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Rui Pedro Gomes Pereira

2015-04-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: to describe the process of translation and linguistic and cultural validation of the Evidence Based Practice Questionnaire for the Portuguese context: Questionário de Eficácia Clínica e Prática Baseada em Evidências (QECPBE. METHOD: a methodological and cross-sectional study was developed. The translation and back translation was performed according to traditional standards. Principal Components Analysis with orthogonal rotation according to the Varimax method was used to verify the QECPBE's psychometric characteristics, followed by confirmatory factor analysis. Internal consistency was determined by Cronbach's alpha. Data were collected between December 2013 and February 2014. RESULTS: 358 nurses delivering care in a hospital facility in North of Portugal participated in the study. QECPBE contains 20 items and three subscales: Practice (α=0.74; Attitudes (α=0.75; Knowledge/Skills and Competencies (α=0.95, presenting an overall internal consistency of α=0.74. The tested model explained 55.86% of the variance and presented good fit: χ2(167=520.009; p = 0.0001; χ2df=3.114; CFI=0.908; GFI=0.865; PCFI=0.798; PGFI=0.678; RMSEA=0.077 (CI90%=0.07-0.08. CONCLUSION: confirmatory factor analysis revealed the questionnaire is valid and appropriate to be used in the studied context.

Evidence for validity within workplace assessment: the Longitudinal Evaluation of Performance (LEP).

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Prescott-Clements, Linda; van der Vleuten, Cees P M; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; Hurst, Yvonne; Rennie, James S

2008-05-01

The drive towards valid and reliable assessment methods for health professions' training is becoming increasingly focused towards authentic models of workplace performance assessment. This study investigates the validity of such a method, longitudinal evaluation of performance (LEP), which has been implemented in the assessment of postgraduate dental trainees in Scotland. Although it is similar in format to the mini-CEX (mini clinical evaluation exercise) and other tools that use global ratings for assessing performance in the workplace, a number of differences exist in the way in which the LEP has been implemented. These include the use of a reference point for evaluators' judgement that represents the standard expected upon completion of the training, flexibility, a greater range of cases assessed and the use of frequency scores within feedback to identify trainees' progress over time. A range of qualitative and quantitative data were collected and analysed from 2 consecutive cohorts of trainees in Scotland (2002-03 and 2003-04). There is rich evidence supporting the validity, educational impact and feasibility of the LEP. In particular, a great deal of support was given by trainers for the use of a fixed reference point for judgements, despite initial concerns that this might be demotivating to trainees. Trainers were highly positive about this approach and considered it useful in identifying trainees' progress and helping to drive learning. The LEP has been successful in combining a strong formative approach to continuous assessment with the collection of evidence on performance within the workplace that (alongside other tools within an assessment system) can contribute towards a summative decision regarding competence.

Regional variation in the predictive validity of self-rated health for mortality

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Edward R. Berchick

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Self-rated health (SRH is a commonly used measure for assessing general health in surveys in the United States. However, individuals from different parts of the United States may vary in how they assess their health. Geographic differences in health care access and in the prevalence of illnesses may make it difficult to discern true regional differences in health when using SRH as a health measure. In this article, we use data from the 1986 and 1989–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files and estimate Cox regression models to examine whether the relationship between SRH and five-year all-cause mortality differs by Census region. Contrary to hypotheses, there is no evidence of regional variation in the predictive validity of SRH for mortality. At all levels of SRH, and for both non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black respondents, SRH is equally and strongly associated with five-year mortality across regions. Our results suggest that differences in SRH across regions are not solely due to differences in how respondents assess their health across regions, but reflect true differences in health. Future research can, therefore, employ this common measure to investigate the geographic patterning of health in the United States.

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model to Estimate Individual Risk of Pancreatic Cancer.

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Yu, Ami; Woo, Sang Myung; Joo, Jungnam; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Lee, Woo Jin; Park, Sang-Jae; Nam, Byung-Ho

2016-01-01

There is no reliable screening tool to identify people with high risk of developing pancreatic cancer even though pancreatic cancer represents the fifth-leading cause of cancer-related death in Korea. The goal of this study was to develop an individualized risk prediction model that can be used to screen for asymptomatic pancreatic cancer in Korean men and women. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed using the Cox proportional hazards model based on an 8-year follow-up of a cohort study of 1,289,933 men and 557,701 women in Korea who had biennial examinations in 1996-1997. The performance of the models was evaluated with respect to their discrimination and calibration ability based on the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow type χ2 statistic. A total of 1,634 (0.13%) men and 561 (0.10%) women were newly diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Age, height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and age at smoking initiation were included in the risk prediction model for men. Height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and drinking habit were included in the risk prediction model for women. Smoking was the most significant risk factor for developing pancreatic cancer in both men and women. The risk prediction model exhibited good discrimination and calibration ability, and in external validation it had excellent prediction ability. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed and validated for the first time. The prediction models will be a useful tool for detecting high-risk individuals who may benefit from increased surveillance for pancreatic cancer.

Validation of water sorption-based clay prediction models for calcareous soils

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arthur, Emmanuel; Razzaghi, Fatemeh; Moosavi, Ali

2017-01-01

on prediction accuracy. The soils had clay content ranging from 9 to 61% and CaCO3 from 24 to 97%. The three water sorption models considered showed a reasonably fair prediction of the clay content from water sorption at 28% relative humidity (RMSE and ME values ranging from 10.6 to 12.1 and −8.1 to −4......Soil particle size distribution (PSD), particularly the active clay fraction, mediates soil engineering, agronomic and environmental functions. The tedious and costly nature of traditional methods of determining PSD prompted the development of water sorption-based models for determining the clay...... fraction. The applicability of such models to semi-arid soils with significant amounts of calcium carbonate and/or gypsum is unknown. The objective of this study was to validate three water sorption-based clay prediction models for 30 calcareous soils from Iran and identify the effect of CaCO3...

Validation of Occupants’ Behaviour Models for Indoor Quality Parameter and Energy Consumption Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fabi, Valentina; Sugliano, Martina; Andersen, Rune Korsholm

2015-01-01

Occupants’ behaviour related to building control system plays a significant role to achieve thermal comfort and air quality in naturally-ventilated buildings. Generally, the published models of occupant's behavior are not validated, meaning that the predictive power has not yet been tested. For t...

Accumulation of Content Validation Evidence for the Critical Thinking Self-Assessment Scale.

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Nair, Girija Gopinathan; Hellsten, Laurie-Ann M; Stamler, Lynnette Leeseberg

2017-04-01

Critical thinking skills (CTS) are essential for nurses; assessing students' acquisition of these skills is a mandate of nursing curricula. This study aimed to develop a self-assessment instrument of critical thinking skills (Critical Thinking Self-Assessment Scale [CTSAS]) for students' self-monitoring. An initial pool of 196 items across 6 core cognitive skills and 16 subskills were generated using the American Philosophical Association definition of CTS. Experts' content review of the items and their ratings provided evidence of content relevance using the item-level content validity index (I-CVI) and Aiken's content validity coefficient (VIk). 115 items were retained (range of I-CVI values = .70 to .94 and range of VIk values = .69-.95; significant at pself-assessment purposes.

Applying hospital evidence to paramedicine: issues of indirectness, validity and knowledge translation.

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Bigham, Blair; Welsford, Michelle

2015-05-01

The practice of emergency medicine (EM) has been intertwined with emergency medical services (EMS) for more than 40 years. In this commentary, we explore the practice of translating hospital based evidence into the prehospital setting. We will challenge both EMS and EM dogma-bringing hospital care to patients in the field is not always better. In providing examples of therapies championed in hospitals that have failed to translate into the field, we will discuss the unique prehospital environment, and why evidence from the hospital setting cannot necessarily be translated to the prehospital field. Paramedicine is maturing so that the capability now exists to conduct practice-specific research that can inform best practices. Before translation from the hospital environment is implemented, evidence must be evaluated by people with expertise in three domains: critical appraisal, EM, and EMS. Scientific evidence should be assessed for: quality and bias; directness, generalizability, and validity to the EMS population; effect size and anticipated benefit from prehospital application; feasibility (including economic evaluation, human resource availability in the mobile environment); and patient and provider safety.

The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance.

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Kepes, Sven; McDaniel, Michael A

2015-01-01

Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance. To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses. Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations. The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation.

Acute Kidney Injury in Trauma Patients Admitted to Critical Care: Development and Validation of a Diagnostic Prediction Model.

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Haines, Ryan W; Lin, Shih-Pin; Hewson, Russell; Kirwan, Christopher J; Torrance, Hew D; O'Dwyer, Michael J; West, Anita; Brohi, Karim; Pearse, Rupert M; Zolfaghari, Parjam; Prowle, John R

2018-02-26

Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) complicating major trauma is associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Traumatic AKI has specific risk factors and predictable time-course facilitating diagnostic modelling. In a single centre, retrospective observational study we developed risk prediction models for AKI after trauma based on data around intensive care admission. Models predicting AKI were developed using data from 830 patients, using data reduction followed by logistic regression, and were independently validated in a further 564 patients. AKI occurred in 163/830 (19.6%) with 42 (5.1%) receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT). First serum creatinine and phosphate, units of blood transfused in first 24 h, age and Charlson score discriminated need for RRT and AKI early after trauma. For RRT c-statistics were good to excellent: development: 0.92 (0.88-0.96), validation: 0.91 (0.86-0.97). Modelling AKI stage 2-3, c-statistics were also good, development: 0.81 (0.75-0.88) and validation: 0.83 (0.74-0.92). The model predicting AKI stage 1-3 performed moderately, development: c-statistic 0.77 (0.72-0.81), validation: 0.70 (0.64-0.77). Despite good discrimination of need for RRT, positive predictive values (PPV) at the optimal cut-off were only 23.0% (13.7-42.7) in development. However, PPV for the alternative endpoint of RRT and/or death improved to 41.2% (34.8-48.1) highlighting death as a clinically relevant endpoint to RRT.

Predicting surgical site infection after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

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Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

2014-09-01

The impact of surgical site infection (SSI) is substantial. Although previous study has determined relative risk and odds ratio (OR) values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of SSI, rather than relative risk or OR values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of SSI after spine surgery. This study performs a multivariate analysis of SSI after spine surgery using a large prospective surgical registry. Using the results of this analysis, this study will then create and validate a predictive model for SSI after spine surgery. The patient sample is from a high-quality surgical registry from our two institutions with prospectively collected, detailed demographic, comorbidity, and complication data. An SSI that required return to the operating room for surgical debridement. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,532 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication details recorded for 2 years after the surgery, we identified several risk factors for SSI after multivariate analysis. Using the beta coefficients from those regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of SSI after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created a predictive model based on our beta coefficients from our multivariate analysis. The final predictive model for SSI had a receiver-operator curve characteristic of 0.72, considered to be a fair measure. The final model has been uploaded for use on SpineSage.com. We present a validated model for predicting SSI after spine surgery. The value in this model is that it gives

A prediction algorithm for first onset of major depression in the general population: development and validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, JianLi; Sareen, Jitender; Patten, Scott; Bolton, James; Schmitz, Norbert; Birney, Arden

2014-05-01

Prediction algorithms are useful for making clinical decisions and for population health planning. However, such prediction algorithms for first onset of major depression do not exist. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction algorithm for first onset of major depression in the general population. Longitudinal study design with approximate 3-year follow-up. The study was based on data from a nationally representative sample of the US general population. A total of 28 059 individuals who participated in Waves 1 and 2 of the US National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions and who had not had major depression at Wave 1 were included. The prediction algorithm was developed using logistic regression modelling in 21 813 participants from three census regions. The algorithm was validated in participants from the 4th census region (n=6246). Major depression occurred since Wave 1 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, assessed by the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule-diagnostic and statistical manual for mental disorders IV. A prediction algorithm containing 17 unique risk factors was developed. The algorithm had good discriminative power (C statistics=0.7538, 95% CI 0.7378 to 0.7699) and excellent calibration (F-adjusted test=1.00, p=0.448) with the weighted data. In the validation sample, the algorithm had a C statistic of 0.7259 and excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.41, p=0.906). The developed prediction algorithm has good discrimination and calibration capacity. It can be used by clinicians, mental health policy-makers and service planners and the general public to predict future risk of having major depression. The application of the algorithm may lead to increased personalisation of treatment, better clinical decisions and more optimal mental health service planning.

External Validation Study of First Trimester Obstetric Prediction Models (Expect Study I): Research Protocol and Population Characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Meertens, Linda Jacqueline Elisabeth; Scheepers, Hubertina Cj; De Vries, Raymond G; Dirksen, Carmen D; Korstjens, Irene; Mulder, Antonius Lm; Nieuwenhuijze, Marianne J; Nijhuis, Jan G; Spaanderman, Marc Ea; Smits, Luc Jm

2017-10-26

A number of first-trimester prediction models addressing important obstetric outcomes have been published. However, most models have not been externally validated. External validation is essential before implementing a prediction model in clinical practice. The objective of this paper is to describe the design of a study to externally validate existing first trimester obstetric prediction models, based upon maternal characteristics and standard measurements (eg, blood pressure), for the risk of pre-eclampsia (PE), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), spontaneous preterm birth (PTB), small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) infants among Dutch pregnant women (Expect Study I). The results of a pilot study on the feasibility and acceptability of the recruitment process and the comprehensibility of the Pregnancy Questionnaire 1 are also reported. A multicenter prospective cohort study was performed in The Netherlands between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015. First trimester obstetric prediction models were systematically selected from the literature. Predictor variables were measured by the Web-based Pregnancy Questionnaire 1 and pregnancy outcomes were established using the Postpartum Questionnaire 1 and medical records. Information about maternal health-related quality of life, costs, and satisfaction with Dutch obstetric care was collected from a subsample of women. A pilot study was carried out before the official start of inclusion. External validity of the models will be evaluated by assessing discrimination and calibration. Based on the pilot study, minor improvements were made to the recruitment process and online Pregnancy Questionnaire 1. The validation cohort consists of 2614 women. Data analysis of the external validation study is in progress. This study will offer insight into the generalizability of existing, non-invasive first trimester prediction models for various obstetric outcomes in a Dutch obstetric population

On various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models with applications in virtual screening and focused library design.

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Kunal; Mitra, Indrani

2011-07-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) have important applications in drug discovery research, environmental fate modeling, property prediction, etc. Validation has been recognized as a very important step for QSAR model development. As one of the important objectives of QSAR modeling is to predict activity/property/toxicity of new chemicals falling within the domain of applicability of the developed models and QSARs are being used for regulatory decisions, checking reliability of the models and confidence of their predictions is a very important aspect, which can be judged during the validation process. One prime application of a statistically significant QSAR model is virtual screening for molecules with improved potency based on the pharmacophoric features and the descriptors appearing in the QSAR model. Validated QSAR models may also be utilized for design of focused libraries which may be subsequently screened for the selection of hits. The present review focuses on various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models together with an overview of the application of QSAR models in the fields of virtual screening and focused library design for diverse series of compounds with citation of some recent examples.

Prediction, Detection, and Validation of Isotope Clusters in Mass Spectrometry Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik Treutler

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Mass spectrometry is a key analytical platform for metabolomics. The precise quantification and identification of small molecules is a prerequisite for elucidating the metabolism and the detection, validation, and evaluation of isotope clusters in LC-MS data is important for this task. Here, we present an approach for the improved detection of isotope clusters using chemical prior knowledge and the validation of detected isotope clusters depending on the substance mass using database statistics. We find remarkable improvements regarding the number of detected isotope clusters and are able to predict the correct molecular formula in the top three ranks in 92 % of the cases. We make our methodology freely available as part of the Bioconductor packages xcms version 1.50.0 and CAMERA version 1.30.0.

Evidence for validity of five secondary data sources for enumerating retail food outlets in seven American Indian Communities in North Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Most studies on the local food environment have used secondary sources to describe the food environment, such as government food registries or commercial listings (e.g., Reference USA). Most of the studies exploring evidence for validity of secondary retail food data have used on-site verification and have not conducted analysis by data source (e.g., sensitivity of Reference USA) or by food outlet type (e.g., sensitivity of Reference USA for convenience stores). Few studies have explored the food environment in American Indian communities. To advance the science on measuring the food environment, we conducted direct, on-site observations of a wide range of food outlets in multiple American Indian communities, without a list guiding the field observations, and then compared our findings to several types of secondary data. Methods Food outlets located within seven State Designated Tribal Statistical Areas in North Carolina (NC) were gathered from online Yellow Pages, Reference USA, Dun & Bradstreet, local health departments, and the NC Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. All TIGER/Line 2009 roads (>1,500 miles) were driven in six of the more rural tribal areas and, for the largest tribe, all roads in two of its cities were driven. Sensitivity, positive predictive value, concordance, and kappa statistics were calculated to compare secondary data sources to primary data. Results 699 food outlets were identified during primary data collection. Match rate for primary data and secondary data differed by type of food outlet observed, with the highest match rates found for grocery stores (97%), general merchandise stores (96%), and restaurants (91%). Reference USA exhibited almost perfect sensitivity (0.89). Local health department data had substantial sensitivity (0.66) and was almost perfect when focusing only on restaurants (0.91). Positive predictive value was substantial for Reference USA (0.67) and moderate for local health department data (0

Is there any evidence for the validity of diagnostic criteria used for accommodative and nonstrabismic binocular dysfunctions?

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Pilar Cacho-Martínez

2014-01-01

Conclusions: Scientific literature reveals differences between authors according to diagnostic criteria for accommodative and nonstrabismic binocular dysfunctions. Diagnostic accuracy studies show that there is only certain evidence for accommodative conditions. For binocular anomalies there is only evidence about a validated questionnaire for convergence insufficiency with no data of diagnostic accuracy.

Validity of CBCL-derived PTSD and dissociation scales: further evidence in a sample of neglected children and adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Milot, Tristan; Plamondon, André; Ethier, Louise S; Lemelin, Jean-Pascal; St-Laurent, Diane; Rousseau, Michel

2013-05-01

There is growing evidence that child neglect is an important risk factor for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociation. Considering that the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) is a widely used measure, the possibility of using validated CBCL-derived trauma symptoms scales could be particularly useful to better understand how trauma symptoms develop among neglected children and adolescents. This study examined the factor structure of three CBCL-derived measures of PTSD and dissociation (namely, PTSD scale, Dissociation scale, and PTSD/Dissociation scale) in a sample of 239 neglected children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 years using the latest version of CBCL (CBCL 6-18). Evidence of convergent validity of these scales was also examined for participants aged 12 and under using two well-validated measures of PTSD and Dissociation: the Trauma Symptoms Checklist for Young Children and the Child Dissociation Checklist. Findings suggest that CBCL-derived measures of trauma symptoms, especially PTSD and Dissociations scales, may be of heuristic value in the study of trauma symptomatology in neglected samples. Factor structure and evidence of convergent validity were supported for these two scales. Results also provide further support to the well-established assumption that PTSD and dissociation are two related but different constructs.

Construct validity of the helplessness/hopelessness/haplessness scale: correlations with perfectionism and depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Leenaars, Lindsey; Lester, David

2007-02-01

In a sample of 117 undergraduates, helplessness scores and the discrepancy scores on a measure of perfectionism predicted depression scores, providing evidence for construct validity for the hopelessness, helplessness, and haplessness scales.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dioum, Aissatou S.; Cisse, Aita; Wade, Salimata; Gartner, Agnes; Delpeuch, Francis; Maire, Bernard; Schutz, Yves

2005-01-01

Background: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population- specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. Objective:Wetestedthehypothesisthatthevalidityofequationsfor predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. Design: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. Results: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3- 1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or under estimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. Conclusions: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa. (Authors)

Stability and Predictive Validity of the Parent-Child Sleep Interactions Scale: A Longitudinal Study Among Preschoolers.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrios, Chelsey S; Jay, Samantha Y; Smith, Victoria C; Alfano, Candice A; Dougherty, Lea R

2018-01-01

Little research has examined the processes underlying children's persistent sleep problems and links with later psychopathology. The current study examined the stability of parent-child sleep interactions as assessed with the parent-reported Parent-Child Sleep Interactions Scale (PSIS) and examined whether sleep interactions in preschool-age children predict sleep problems and psychiatric symptoms later in childhood. Participants included 108 preschool-age children (50% female) and their parents. Parents completed the PSIS when children were 3-5 years (T1) and again when they were 6-9 years (T2). The PSIS includes three subscales-Sleep Reinforcement (reassurance of child sleep behaviors), Sleep Conflict (parent-child conflict at bedtime), Sleep Dependence (difficulty going to sleep without parent)-and a total score. Higher scores indicate more problematic bedtime interactions. Children's sleep problems and psychiatric symptoms at T1 and T2 were assessed with a clinical interview. PSIS scores were moderately stable from T1 to T2, and the factor structure of the PSIS remained relatively consistent over time. Higher total PSIS scores at T1 predicted increases in children's sleep problems at T2. Higher PSIS Sleep Conflict scores at T1 predicted increases in oppositional defiant disorder symptoms at T2. Children with more sleep problems and higher PSIS Sleep Reinforcement scores at T1 showed increases in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, depressive, and anxiety symptoms at T2. These findings provide evidence for the predictive validity of the PSIS and highlight the importance of early parent-child sleep interactions in the development of sleep and psychiatric symptoms in childhood. Parent-child sleep interactions may serve as a useful target for interventions.

Development and Validation of a Multidisciplinary Tool for Accurate and Efficient Rotorcraft Noise Prediction (MUTE)

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yi; Anusonti-Inthra, Phuriwat; Diskin, Boris

2011-01-01

A physics-based, systematically coupled, multidisciplinary prediction tool (MUTE) for rotorcraft noise was developed and validated with a wide range of flight configurations and conditions. MUTE is an aggregation of multidisciplinary computational tools that accurately and efficiently model the physics of the source of rotorcraft noise, and predict the noise at far-field observer locations. It uses systematic coupling approaches among multiple disciplines including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD), and high fidelity acoustics. Within MUTE, advanced high-order CFD tools are used around the rotor blade to predict the transonic flow (shock wave) effects, which generate the high-speed impulsive noise. Predictions of the blade-vortex interaction noise in low speed flight are also improved by using the Particle Vortex Transport Method (PVTM), which preserves the wake flow details required for blade/wake and fuselage/wake interactions. The accuracy of the source noise prediction is further improved by utilizing a coupling approach between CFD and CSD, so that the effects of key structural dynamics, elastic blade deformations, and trim solutions are correctly represented in the analysis. The blade loading information and/or the flow field parameters around the rotor blade predicted by the CFD/CSD coupling approach are used to predict the acoustic signatures at far-field observer locations with a high-fidelity noise propagation code (WOPWOP3). The predicted results from the MUTE tool for rotor blade aerodynamic loading and far-field acoustic signatures are compared and validated with a variation of experimental data sets, such as UH60-A data, DNW test data and HART II test data.

Tone Noise Predictions for a Spacecraft Cabin Ventilation Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow and the Challenges of Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, L. Danielle; Shook, Tony D.; Astler, Douglas T.; Bittinger, Samantha A.

2012-01-01

A fan tone noise prediction code has been developed at NASA Glenn Research Center that is capable of estimating duct mode sound power levels for a fan ingesting distorted inflow. This code was used to predict the circumferential and radial mode sound power levels in the inlet and exhaust duct of an axial spacecraft cabin ventilation fan. Noise predictions at fan design rotational speed were generated. Three fan inflow conditions were studied: an undistorted inflow, a circumferentially symmetric inflow distortion pattern (cylindrical rods inserted radially into the flowpath at 15deg, 135deg, and 255deg), and a circumferentially asymmetric inflow distortion pattern (rods located at 15deg, 52deg and 173deg). Noise predictions indicate that tones are produced for the distorted inflow cases that are not present when the fan operates with an undistorted inflow. Experimental data are needed to validate these acoustic predictions, as well as the aerodynamic performance predictions. Given the aerodynamic design of the spacecraft cabin ventilation fan, a mechanical and electrical conceptual design study was conducted. Design features of a fan suitable for obtaining detailed acoustic and aerodynamic measurements needed to validate predictions are discussed.

Reliability and Validity Evidence of Scores on the French Version of the Questionnaire about Interpersonal Difficulties for Adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatriz Delgado

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This study examined the reliability and validity evidence drawn from the scores of the French version of the Questionnaire about Interpersonal Difficulties for Adolescents (QIDA in a sample of 957 adolescents (48.5% boys ranging in age from 11 to 18 years ('M' = 14.48, 'SD' = 1.85. A principal axis factoring (PAF and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA were performed to determine the fit of the factor structure of scores on the QIDA. PAF and CFA replicated the previously identified correlated five-factor structure of the QIDA: Assertiveness, Heterosexual Relationships, Public Speaking, Family Relationships, and Close Friendships. The QIDA yielded acceptable reliability scores for French adolescents. Validity evidence of QIDA was also established through correlations with scores on the School Anxiety Inventory and the Social Anxiety Scale for Adolescents. Most of the correlations were positive and exceeded the established criteria of statistical significance, but the magnitude of these varied according to the scales of the QIDA. Results supported the reliability and validity evidence drawn from the scores of the French version of the QIDA.

Validation of forcefields in predicting the physical and thermophysical properties of emeraldine base polyaniline

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, X.P.; Yuan, C.A.; Wong, C.K.Y.; Koh, S.W.; Zhang, G.Q.

2011-01-01

We report a molecular modelling study to validate the forcefields [condensed-phase optimised molecular potentials for atomistic simulation studies (COMPASS) and polymer-consistent forcefield (PCFF)] in predicting the physical and thermophysical properties of polymers. This work comprises of two key

Validity of 'post-traumatic stress disorder with secondary psychotic features': a review of the evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Braakman, M. H.; Kortmann, F. A. M.; van den Brink, W.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To review the evidence from empirical studies regarding the validity of 'post-traumatic stress disorder with secondary psychotic features' (PTSD-SP) as a separate diagnostic entity. METHOD: The authors performed a review tracing publications between 1980 and January 2008. RESULTS:

The HIrisPlex-S system for eye, hair and skin colour prediction from DNA: Introduction and forensic developmental validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaitanya, Lakshmi; Breslin, Krystal; Zuñiga, Sofia; Wirken, Laura; Pośpiech, Ewelina; Kukla-Bartoszek, Magdalena; Sijen, Titia; Knijff, Peter de; Liu, Fan; Branicki, Wojciech; Kayser, Manfred; Walsh, Susan

2018-07-01

Forensic DNA Phenotyping (FDP), i.e. the prediction of human externally visible traits from DNA, has become a fast growing subfield within forensic genetics due to the intelligence information it can provide from DNA traces. FDP outcomes can help focus police investigations in search of unknown perpetrators, who are generally unidentifiable with standard DNA profiling. Therefore, we previously developed and forensically validated the IrisPlex DNA test system for eye colour prediction and the HIrisPlex system for combined eye and hair colour prediction from DNA traces. Here we introduce and forensically validate the HIrisPlex-S DNA test system (S for skin) for the simultaneous prediction of eye, hair, and skin colour from trace DNA. This FDP system consists of two SNaPshot-based multiplex assays targeting a total of 41 SNPs via a novel multiplex assay for 17 skin colour predictive SNPs and the previous HIrisPlex assay for 24 eye and hair colour predictive SNPs, 19 of which also contribute to skin colour prediction. The HIrisPlex-S system further comprises three statistical prediction models, the previously developed IrisPlex model for eye colour prediction based on 6 SNPs, the previous HIrisPlex model for hair colour prediction based on 22 SNPs, and the recently introduced HIrisPlex-S model for skin colour prediction based on 36 SNPs. In the forensic developmental validation testing, the novel 17-plex assay performed in full agreement with the Scientific Working Group on DNA Analysis Methods (SWGDAM) guidelines, as previously shown for the 24-plex assay. Sensitivity testing of the 17-plex assay revealed complete SNP profiles from as little as 63 pg of input DNA, equalling the previously demonstrated sensitivity threshold of the 24-plex HIrisPlex assay. Testing of simulated forensic casework samples such as blood, semen, saliva stains, of inhibited DNA samples, of low quantity touch (trace) DNA samples, and of artificially degraded DNA samples as well as

Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

Science.gov (United States)

Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

2014-09-01

Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

Prediction of flow in mix-proof valve by use of CFD - Validation by LDA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Bo Boye Busk; Friis, Alan

2004-01-01

was done on a spherical shaped mix-proof valve (MPV). Flow were predicted by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and validated by data obtained from experiments using laser sheet visualization and laser Doppler anemometry. Correction of the measured velocities and probe location was required as refraction......-wall region is shown. Fully 3D flow patterns were identified and valuable information was obtained for further investigations concerning prediction of cleanability in the MPV based on knowledge of the hydrodynamics herein....

Predictive validity of examinations at the Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) level

OpenAIRE

Farrugia, Josette; Ventura, Frank

2007-01-01

This paper presents the predictive validity of results obtained by 16-year-old Maltese students in the May 2004 Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) examinations in Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Mathematics, Computing, English and Maltese for the Advanced level examinations in these subjects taken by the same students two years later. The study checks whether the SEC level is a good foundation for the higher level, the likelihood of obtaining a high grade at A-level from particular SEC result...

The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale

A Supervised Learning Process to Validate Online Disease Reports for Use in Predictive Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Patching, Helena M M; Hudson, Laurence M; Cooke, Warrick; Garcia, Andres J; Hay, Simon I; Roberts, Mark; Moyes, Catherine L

2015-12-01

Pathogen distribution models that predict spatial variation in disease occurrence require data from a large number of geographic locations to generate disease risk maps. Traditionally, this process has used data from public health reporting systems; however, using online reports of new infections could speed up the process dramatically. Data from both public health systems and online sources must be validated before they can be used, but no mechanisms exist to validate data from online media reports. We have developed a supervised learning process to validate geolocated disease outbreak data in a timely manner. The process uses three input features, the data source and two metrics derived from the location of each disease occurrence. The location of disease occurrence provides information on the probability of disease occurrence at that location based on environmental and socioeconomic factors and the distance within or outside the current known disease extent. The process also uses validation scores, generated by disease experts who review a subset of the data, to build a training data set. The aim of the supervised learning process is to generate validation scores that can be used as weights going into the pathogen distribution model. After analyzing the three input features and testing the performance of alternative processes, we selected a cascade of ensembles comprising logistic regressors. Parameter values for the training data subset size, number of predictors, and number of layers in the cascade were tested before the process was deployed. The final configuration was tested using data for two contrasting diseases (dengue and cholera), and 66%-79% of data points were assigned a validation score. The remaining data points are scored by the experts, and the results inform the training data set for the next set of predictors, as well as going to the pathogen distribution model. The new supervised learning process has been implemented within our live site and is

Predictive validity of proposed remission criteria in first-episode schizophrenic patients responding to antipsychotics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wunderink, Lex; Nienhuis, Fokko J.; Sytema, Sjoerd; Wiersma, Durk

The objective of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the remission criteria proposed by Andreasen et all in first-episode patients responding to antipsychotics. Antipsychotic responsive patients with first-episode schizophrenia showing symptom remission (n = 60) were compared with

Predicting medical complications after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

2014-02-01

The possibility and likelihood of a postoperative medical complication after spine surgery undoubtedly play a major role in the decision making of the surgeon and patient alike. Although prior study has determined relative risk and odds ratio values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of medical complication, rather than relative risk or odds ratio values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of medical complication during and after spine surgery. Statistical analysis using a prospective surgical spine registry that recorded extensive demographic, surgical, and complication data. Outcomes examined are medical complications that were specifically defined a priori. This analysis is a continuation of statistical analysis of our previously published report. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,476 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication detail recorded for 2 years after surgery, we previously identified several risk factor for medical complications. Using the beta coefficients from those log binomial regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of medical complication after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created two predictive models: one predicting the occurrence of any medical complication and the other predicting the occurrence of a major medical complication. The final predictive model for any medical complications had a receiver operator curve characteristic of 0.76, considered to be a fair measure. The final predictive model for any major medical complications had

Development and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Models for Prediction of Heat Transfer and Thermal Microenvironments of Corals

Science.gov (United States)

Ong, Robert H.; King, Andrew J. C.; Mullins, Benjamin J.; Cooper, Timothy F.; Caley, M. Julian

2012-01-01

We present Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models of the coupled dynamics of water flow, heat transfer and irradiance in and around corals to predict temperatures experienced by corals. These models were validated against controlled laboratory experiments, under constant and transient irradiance, for hemispherical and branching corals. Our CFD models agree very well with experimental studies. A linear relationship between irradiance and coral surface warming was evident in both the simulation and experimental result agreeing with heat transfer theory. However, CFD models for the steady state simulation produced a better fit to the linear relationship than the experimental data, likely due to experimental error in the empirical measurements. The consistency of our modelling results with experimental observations demonstrates the applicability of CFD simulations, such as the models developed here, to coral bleaching studies. A study of the influence of coral skeletal porosity and skeletal bulk density on surface warming was also undertaken, demonstrating boundary layer behaviour, and interstitial flow magnitude and temperature profiles in coral cross sections. Our models compliment recent studies showing systematic changes in these parameters in some coral colonies and have utility in the prediction of coral bleaching. PMID:22701582

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim evan Emmerik

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.

The Smoking Consequences Questionnaire: Factor structure and predictive validity among Spanish-speaking Latino smokers in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Vidrine, Damon J; Costello, Tracy J; Mazas, Carlos; Cofta-Woerpel, Ludmila; Mejia, Luz Maria; Wetter, David W

2009-11-01

Much of the existing research on smoking outcome expectancies has been guided by the Smoking Consequences Questionnaire (SCQ ). Although the original version of the SCQ has been modified over time for use in different populations, none of the existing versions have been evaluated for use among Spanish-speaking Latino smokers in the United States. The present study evaluated the factor structure and predictive validity of the 3 previously validated versions of the SCQ--the original, the SCQ-Adult, and the SCQ-Spanish, which was developed with Spanish-speaking smokers in Spain--among Spanish-speaking Latino smokers in Texas. The SCQ-Spanish represented the least complex solution. Each of the SCQ-Spanish scales had good internal consistency, and the predictive validity of the SCQ-Spanish was partially supported. Nearly all the SCQ-Spanish scales predicted withdrawal severity even after controlling for demographics and dependence. Boredom Reduction predicted smoking relapse across the 5- and 12-week follow-up assessments in a multivariate model that also controlled for demographics and dependence. Our results support use of the SCQ-Spanish with Spanish-speaking Latino smokers in the United States.

Validation of CRIB II for prediction of mortality in premature babies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rastogi, Pallav Kumar; Sreenivas, V; Kumar, Nirmal

2010-02-01

Validation of Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) score in predicting the neonatal mortality in preterm neonates < or = 32 weeks gestational age. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care neonatal unit. 86 consecutively born preterm neonates with gestational age < or = 32 weeks. The five variables related to CRIB II were recorded within the first hour of admission for data analysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to check the accuracy of the mortality prediction. HL Goodness of fit test was used to see the discrepancy between observed and expected outcomes. A total of 86 neonates (males 59.6% mean birthweight: 1228 +/- 398 grams; mean gestational age: 28.3 +/- 2.4 weeks) were enrolled in the study, of which 17 (19.8%) left hospital against medical advice (LAMA) before reaching the study end point. Among 69 neonates completing the study, 24 (34.8%) had adverse outcome during hospital stay and 45 (65.2%) had favorable outcome. CRIB II correctly predicted adverse outcome in 90.3% (Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test P=0.6). Area under curve (AUC) for CRIB II was 0.9032. In intention to treat analysis with LAMA cases included as survivors, the mortality prediction was 87%. If these were included as having died then mortality prediction was 83.1%. The CRIB II score was found to be a good predictive instrument for mortality in preterm infants < or = 32 weeks gestation.

The validity of upper-limb neurodynamic tests for detecting peripheral neuropathic pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Nee, Robert J; Jull, Gwendolen A; Vicenzino, Bill; Coppieters, Michel W

2012-05-01

The validity of upper-limb neurodynamic tests (ULNTs) for detecting peripheral neuropathic pain (PNP) was assessed by reviewing the evidence on plausibility, the definition of a positive test, reliability, and concurrent validity. Evidence was identified by a structured search for peer-reviewed articles published in English before May 2011. The quality of concurrent validity studies was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool, where appropriate. Biomechanical and experimental pain data support the plausibility of ULNTs. Evidence suggests that a positive ULNT should at least partially reproduce the patient's symptoms and that structural differentiation should change these symptoms. Data indicate that this definition of a positive ULNT is reliable when used clinically. Limited evidence suggests that the median nerve test, but not the radial nerve test, helps determine whether a patient has cervical radiculopathy. The median nerve test does not help diagnose carpal tunnel syndrome. These findings should be interpreted cautiously, because diagnostic accuracy might have been distorted by the investigators' definitions of a positive ULNT. Furthermore, patients with PNP who presented with increased nerve mechanosensitivity rather than conduction loss might have been incorrectly classified by electrophysiological reference standards as not having PNP. The only evidence for concurrent validity of the ulnar nerve test was a case study on cubital tunnel syndrome. We recommend that researchers develop more comprehensive reference standards for PNP to accurately assess the concurrent validity of ULNTs and continue investigating the predictive validity of ULNTs for prognosis or treatment response.

An Automated Defect Prediction Framework using Genetic Algorithms: A Validation of Empirical Studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Murillo-Morera

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Today, it is common for software projects to collect measurement data through development processes. With these data, defect prediction software can try to estimate the defect proneness of a software module, with the objective of assisting and guiding software practitioners. With timely and accurate defect predictions, practitioners can focus their limited testing resources on higher risk areas. This paper reports the results of three empirical studies that uses an automated genetic defect prediction framework. This framework generates and compares different learning schemes (preprocessing + attribute selection + learning algorithms and selects the best one using a genetic algorithm, with the objective to estimate the defect proneness of a software module. The first empirical study is a performance comparison of our framework with the most important framework of the literature. The second empirical study is a performance and runtime comparison between our framework and an exhaustive framework. The third empirical study is a sensitivity analysis. The last empirical study, is our main contribution in this paper. Performance of the software development defect prediction models (using AUC, Area Under the Curve was validated using NASA-MDP and PROMISE data sets. Seventeen data sets from NASA-MDP (13 and PROMISE (4 projects were analyzed running a NxM-fold cross-validation. A genetic algorithm was used to select the components of the learning schemes automatically, and to assess and report the results. Our results reported similar performance between frameworks. Our framework reported better runtime than exhaustive framework. Finally, we reported the best configuration according to sensitivity analysis.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

2011-01-01

Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael King

Full Text Available Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women.69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873. The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51. External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846 and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78.The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Validation of model predictions of pore-scale fluid distributions during two-phase flow

Science.gov (United States)

Bultreys, Tom; Lin, Qingyang; Gao, Ying; Raeini, Ali Q.; AlRatrout, Ahmed; Bijeljic, Branko; Blunt, Martin J.

2018-05-01

Pore-scale two-phase flow modeling is an important technology to study a rock's relative permeability behavior. To investigate if these models are predictive, the calculated pore-scale fluid distributions which determine the relative permeability need to be validated. In this work, we introduce a methodology to quantitatively compare models to experimental fluid distributions in flow experiments visualized with microcomputed tomography. First, we analyzed five repeated drainage-imbibition experiments on a single sample. In these experiments, the exact fluid distributions were not fully repeatable on a pore-by-pore basis, while the global properties of the fluid distribution were. Then two fractional flow experiments were used to validate a quasistatic pore network model. The model correctly predicted the fluid present in more than 75% of pores and throats in drainage and imbibition. To quantify what this means for the relevant global properties of the fluid distribution, we compare the main flow paths and the connectivity across the different pore sizes in the modeled and experimental fluid distributions. These essential topology characteristics matched well for drainage simulations, but not for imbibition. This suggests that the pore-filling rules in the network model we used need to be improved to make reliable predictions of imbibition. The presented analysis illustrates the potential of our methodology to systematically and robustly test two-phase flow models to aid in model development and calibration.

Validation and Refinement of Prediction Models to Estimate Exercise Capacity in Cancer Survivors Using the Steep Ramp Test

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stuiver, Martijn M.; Kampshoff, Caroline S.; Persoon, Saskia; Groen, Wim; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai J. M.; Brug, Johannes; Nollet, Frans; Kersten, Marie-José; Schep, Goof; Buffart, Laurien M.

2017-01-01

Objective: To further test the validity and clinical usefulness of the steep ramp test (SRT) in estimating exercise tolerance in cancer survivors by external validation and extension of previously published prediction models for peak oxygen consumption (Vo2(peak)) and peak power output (W-peak).&

Validity of impedance-based predictions of total body water as measured by 2H dilution in African HIV/AIDS outpatients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diouf, Adama; Idohou Dossou, Nicole; Wade, Salimata; Gartner, Agnes; Sanon, Dominique Alexis; Bluck, Les; Wright, Antony

2009-01-01

Measurements of body composition are crucial in identifying HIV-infected patients at risk of malnutrition. No information is available on the validity of indirect body composition methods in African HIV-infected outpatients. Our aim was to test the validity of fifteen published equations, developed in whites, African-Americans and/or Africans who were or not HIV-infected, for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) in HIV-infected patients. The second aim was to develop specific predictive equations. Thirty-four HIV-infected patients without antiretroviral treatment and oedema at the beginning of the study (age 39 (SD 7) years, BMI 18.7 (SD 3.7) kg/m2, TBW 30.4 (SD 7.2 kg) were measured at inclusion then 3 and 6 months later. In the resulting eighty-eight measurements, we compared TBW values predicted from BIA to those measured by 2H dilution. Range of bias values was 0.1-4.3, and errors showed acceptable values (2.2-3.4 kg) for fourteen equations and a high value (10.4) for one equation. Two equations developed in non-HIV-infected subjects showed non-significant bias and could be used in African HIV-infected patients. In the other cases, poor agreement indicated a lack of validity. Specific equations developed from our sample showed a higher precision of TBW prediction when using resistance at 1000kHz (1.7kg) than at 50kHz (2.3kg), this latter precision being similar to that of the valid published equations (2.3 and 2.8kg). The valid published or developed predictive equations should be cross-validated in large independent samples of African HIV-infected patients. (Authors)

A model of prediction and cross-validation of fat-free mass in men with motor complete spinal cord injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Gorgey, Ashraf S; Dolbow, David R; Gater, David R

2012-07-01

To establish and validate prediction equations by using body weight to predict legs, trunk, and whole-body fat-free mass (FFM) in men with chronic complete spinal cord injury (SCI). Cross-sectional design. Research setting in a large medical center. Individuals with SCI (N=63) divided into prediction (n=42) and cross-validation (n=21) groups. Not applicable. Whole-body FFM and regional FFM were determined by using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Body weight was measured by using a wheelchair weighing scale after subtracting the weight of the chair. Body weight predicted legs FFM (legs FFM=.09×body weight+6.1; R(2)=.25, standard error of the estimate [SEE]=3.1kg, PFFM (trunk FFM=.21×body weight+8.6; R(2)=.56, SEE=3.6kg, PFFM (whole-body FFM=.288×body weight+26.3; R(2)=.53, SEE=5.3kg, PFFM(predicted) (FFM predicted from the derived equations) shared 86% of the variance in whole-body FFM(measured) (FFM measured using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scan) (R(2)=.86, SEE=1.8kg, PFFM(measured), and 66% of legs FFM(measured). The trunk FFM(predicted) shared 69% of the variance in trunk FFM(measured) (R(2)=.69, SEE=2.7kg, PFFM(predicted) shared 67% of the variance in legs FFM(measured) (R(2)=.67, SEE=2.8kg, PFFM did not differ between the prediction and validation groups. Body weight can be used to predict whole-body FFM and regional FFM. The predicted whole-body FFM improved the prediction of trunk FFM and legs FFM. Copyright © 2012 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Motor Speech Assessment for Children with Severe Speech Disorders: Reliability and Validity Evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Strand, Edythe A.; McCauley, Rebecca J.; Weigand, Stephen D.; Stoeckel, Ruth E.; Baas, Becky S.

2013-01-01

Purpose: In this article, the authors report reliability and validity evidence for the Dynamic Evaluation of Motor Speech Skill (DEMSS), a new test that uses dynamic assessment to aid in the differential diagnosis of childhood apraxia of speech (CAS). Method: Participants were 81 children between 36 and 79 months of age who were referred to the…

Development and validation of a multivariate prediction model for patients with acute pancreatitis in Intensive Care Medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Zubia-Olaskoaga, Felix; Maraví-Poma, Enrique; Urreta-Barallobre, Iratxe; Ramírez-Puerta, María-Rosario; Mourelo-Fariña, Mónica; Marcos-Neira, María-Pilar; García-García, Miguel Ángel

2018-03-01

Development and validation of a multivariate prediction model for patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) admitted in Intensive Care Units (ICU). A prospective multicenter observational study, in 1 year period, in 46 international ICUs (EPAMI study). adults admitted to an ICU with AP and at least one organ failure. Development of a multivariate prediction model, using the worst data of the stay in ICU, based in multivariate analysis, simple imputation in a development cohort. The model was validated in another cohort. 374 patients were included (mortality of 28.9%). Variables with statistical significance in multivariate analysis were age, no alcoholic and no biliary etiology, development of shock, development of respiratory failure, need of continuous renal replacement therapy, and intra-abdominal pressure. The model created with these variables presented an AUC of ROC curve of 0.90 (CI 95% 0.81-0.94) in the validation cohort. We developed a multivariable prediction model, and AP cases could be classified as low mortality risk (between 2 and 9.5 points, mortality of 1.35%), moderate mortality risk (between 10 and 12.5 points, 28.92% of mortality), and high mortality risk (13 points of more, mortality of 88.37%). Our model presented better AUC of ROC curve than APACHE II (0.91 vs 0.80) and SOFA in the first 24 h (0.91 vs 0.79). We developed and validated a multivariate prediction model, which can be applied in any moment of the stay in ICU, with better discriminatory power than APACHE II and SOFA in the first 24 h. Copyright © 2018 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive Validity of the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale for Short-Term Suicidal Behavior

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Conway, Paul Maurice; Erlangsen, Annette; Teasdale, Thomas William

2017-01-01

adolescents (90.6% females) who participated at follow-up (85.9%) out of the 99 (49.7%) baseline respondents. All adolescents were recruited from a specialized suicide-prevention clinic in Denmark. Through multivariate logistic regression analyses, we examined whether baseline suicidal behavior predicted......Using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS), we examined the predictive and incremental predictive validity of past-month suicidal behavior and ideation for short-term suicidal behavior among adolescents at high risk of suicide. The study was conducted in 2014 on a sample of 85...... subsequent suicidal behavior (actual attempts and suicidal behavior of any type, including preparatory acts, aborted, interrupted and actual attempts; mean follow-up of 80.8 days, SD = 52.4). Furthermore, we examined whether suicidal ideation severity and intensity incrementally predicted suicidal behavior...

Predicting umbilical artery pH during labour: Development and validation of a nomogram using fetal heart rate patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramanah, Rajeev; Omar, Sikiyah; Guillien, Alicia; Pugin, Aurore; Martin, Alain; Riethmuller, Didier; Mottet, Nicolas

2018-06-01

Nomograms are statistical models that combine variables to obtain the most accurate and reliable prediction for a particular risk. Fetal heart rate (FHR) interpretation alone has been found to be poorly predictive for fetal acidosis while other clinical risk factors exist. The aim of this study was to create and validate a nomogram based on FHR patterns and relevant clinical parameters to provide a non-invasive individualized prediction of umbilical artery pH during labour. A retrospective observational study was conducted on 4071 patients in labour presenting singleton pregnancies at >34 gestational weeks and delivering vaginally. Clinical characteristics, FHR patterns and umbilical cord gas of 1913 patients were used to construct a nomogram predicting an umbilical artery (Ua) pH <7.18 (10th centile of the study population) after an univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis. External validation was obtained from an independent cohort of 2158 patients. Area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the nomogram were determined. Upon multivariate analysis, parity (p < 0.01), induction of labour (p = 0.01), a prior uterine scar (p = 0.02), maternal fever (p = 0.02) and the type of FHR (p < 0.01) were significantly associated with an Ua pH <7.18 (p < 0.05). Apgar score at 1, 5 and 10 min were significantly lower in the group with an Ua pH <7.18 (p < 0.01). The nomogram constructed had a Concordance Index of 0.75 (area under the curve) with a sensitivity of 57%, a specificity of 91%, a negative predictive value of 5% and a positive predictive value of 99%. Calibration found no difference between the predicted probabilities and the observed rate of Ua pH <7.18 (p = 0.63). The validation set had a Concordance Index of 0.72 and calibration with a p < 0.77. We successfully developed and validated a nomogram to predict Ua pH by

Measuring striving for understanding and learning value of geometry: a validity study

Science.gov (United States)

Ubuz, Behiye; Aydınyer, Yurdagül

2017-11-01

The current study aimed to construct a questionnaire that measures students' personality traits related to striving for understanding and learning value of geometry and then examine its psychometric properties. Through the use of multiple methods on two independent samples of 402 and 521 middle school students, two studies were performed to address this issue to provide support for its validity. In Study 1, exploratory factor analysis indicated the two-factor model. In Study 2, confirmatory factor analysis indicated the better fit of two-factor model compared to one or three-factor model. Convergent and discriminant validity evidence provided insight into the distinctiveness of the two factors. Subgroup validity evidence revealed gender differences for striving for understanding geometry trait favouring girls and grade level differences for learning value of geometry trait favouring the sixth- and seventh-grade students. Predictive validity evidence demonstrated that the striving for understanding geometry trait but not learning value of geometry trait was significantly correlated with prior mathematics achievement. In both studies, each factor and the entire questionnaire showed satisfactory reliability. In conclusion, the questionnaire was psychometrically sound.

External validation of the ability of the DRAGON score to predict outcome after thrombolysis treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ovesen, C; Christensen, A; Nielsen, J K; Christensen, H

2013-11-01

Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant plasminogen activator between 2009 and 2011 were included. Upon admission all patients underwent physical and neurological examination using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale along with non-contrast CT scans and CT angiography. Patients were followed up through the Outpatient Clinic and their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was assessed after 3 months. Three hundred and three patients were included in the analysis. The DRAGON scale proved to have a good discriminative ability for predicting highly unfavourable outcome (mRS 5-6) (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]: 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.96; pDRAGON scale provided good discriminative capability (AUC-ROC: 0.89; 95% CI 0.78-1.0; p=0.003) for highly unfavourable outcome. We confirmed the validity of the DRAGON scale in predicting outcome after thrombolysis treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development, external validation and clinical usefulness of a practical prediction model for radiation-induced dysphagia in lung cancer patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dehing-Oberije, Cary; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Petit, Steven; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; Vandecasteele, Katrien; De Neve, Wilfried; Dingemans, Anne Marie C.; El Naqa, Issam; Deasy, Joseph; Bradley, Jeff; Huang, Ellen; Lambin, Philippe

2010-01-01

Introduction: Acute dysphagia is a distressing dose-limiting toxicity occurring frequently during concurrent chemo-radiation or high-dose radiotherapy for lung cancer. It can lead to treatment interruptions and thus jeopardize survival. Although a number of predictive factors have been identified, it is still not clear how these could offer assistance for treatment decision making in daily clinical practice. Therefore, we have developed and validated a nomogram to predict this side-effect. In addition, clinical usefulness was assessed by comparing model predictions to physicians' predictions. Materials and methods: Clinical data from 469 inoperable lung cancer patients, treated with curative intent, were collected prospectively. A prediction model for acute radiation-induced dysphagia was developed. Model performance was evaluated by the c-statistic and assessed using bootstrapping as well as two external datasets. In addition, a prospective study was conducted comparing model to physicians' predictions in 138 patients. Results: The final multivariate model consisted of age, gender, WHO performance status, mean esophageal dose (MED), maximum esophageal dose (MAXED) and overall treatment time (OTT). The c-statistic, assessed by bootstrapping, was 0.77. External validation yielded an AUC of 0.94 on the Ghent data and 0.77 on the Washington University St. Louis data for dysphagia ≥ grade 3. Comparing model predictions to the physicians' predictions resulted in an AUC of 0.75 versus 0.53, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed model performed well was successfully validated and demonstrated the ability to predict acute severe dysphagia remarkably better than the physicians. Therefore, this model could be used in clinical practice to identify patients at high or low risk.

Developing and Validating a Predictive Model for Stroke Progression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.E. Craig

2011-12-01

discrimination and calibration of the predictive model appear sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice.

Developing and validating a predictive model for stroke progression.

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, L E; Wu, O; Gilmour, H; Barber, M; Langhorne, P

2011-01-01

sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice.

Developing and Validating a Predictive Model for Stroke Progression

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, L.E.; Wu, O.; Gilmour, H.; Barber, M.; Langhorne, P.

2011-01-01

calibration of the predictive model appear sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice. PMID:22566988

Development and validation of a preoperative prediction model for colorectal cancer T-staging based on MDCT images and clinical information.

Science.gov (United States)

Sa, Sha; Li, Jing; Li, Xiaodong; Li, Yongrui; Liu, Xiaoming; Wang, Defeng; Zhang, Huimao; Fu, Yu

2017-08-15

This study aimed to establish and evaluate the efficacy of a prediction model for colorectal cancer T-staging. T-staging was positively correlated with the level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), expression of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), wall deformity, blurred outer edges, fat infiltration, infiltration into the surrounding tissue, tumor size and wall thickness. Age, location, enhancement rate and enhancement homogeneity were negatively correlated with T-staging. The predictive results of the model were consistent with the pathological gold standard, and the kappa value was 0.805. The total accuracy of staging improved from 51.04% to 86.98% with the proposed model. The clinical, imaging and pathological data of 611 patients with colorectal cancer (419 patients in the training group and 192 patients in the validation group) were collected. A spearman correlation analysis was used to validate the relationship among these factors and pathological T-staging. A prediction model was trained with the random forest algorithm. T staging of the patients in the validation group was predicted by both prediction model and traditional method. The consistency, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) were used to compare the efficacy of the two methods. The newly established comprehensive model can improve the predictive efficiency of preoperative colorectal cancer T-staging.

Predicting implementation from organizational readiness for change: a study protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelly P Adam

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is widespread interest in measuring organizational readiness to implement evidence-based practices in clinical care. However, there are a number of challenges to validating organizational measures, including inferential bias arising from the halo effect and method bias - two threats to validity that, while well-documented by organizational scholars, are often ignored in health services research. We describe a protocol to comprehensively assess the psychometric properties of a previously developed survey, the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment. Objectives Our objective is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the psychometric properties of the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment incorporating methods specifically to address threats from halo effect and method bias. Methods and Design We will conduct three sets of analyses using longitudinal, secondary data from four partner projects, each testing interventions to improve the implementation of an evidence-based clinical practice. Partner projects field the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment at baseline (n = 208 respondents; 53 facilities, and prospectively assesses the degree to which the evidence-based practice is implemented. We will conduct predictive and concurrent validities using hierarchical linear modeling and multivariate regression, respectively. For predictive validity, the outcome is the change from baseline to follow-up in the use of the evidence-based practice. We will use intra-class correlations derived from hierarchical linear models to assess inter-rater reliability. Two partner projects will also field measures of job satisfaction for convergent and discriminant validity analyses, and will field Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment measures at follow-up for concurrent validity (n = 158 respondents; 33 facilities. Convergent and discriminant validities will test associations between organizational readiness and

Site characterization and validation. Stage 2 - Preliminary predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsson, O.; Black, J.H.; Gale, J.E.; Holmes, D.C.

1989-05-01

The Site Characterization and Validation (SCV) project is designed to assess how well we can characterize a volume of rock prior to using it as a repository. The programme of work focuses on the validation of the techniques used in site characterization. The SCV project contains 5 stages of work arranged in two 'cycles' of data-gathering, prediction, and validation. The first stage of work has included drilling of 6 boreholes (N2, N3, N4, W1, W2 and V3) and measurements of geology, fracture characteristics, stess, single borehole geophysical logging, radar, seismics and hydrogeology. The rock at the SCV site is granite with small lithological variations. Based essentially on radar and seismic results 5 'fracture zones' have been identified, named GA, GB, GC, GH and GI. They all extend acroos the entire SCV site. They aer basically in in two groups (GA, GB, GC and GH, GI). The first group are aligned N40 degree E with a dip of 35 degree to the south. The second group are aligned approximately N10 degree W dipping 60 degree E. From the stochastic analysis of the joint data it was possible to identify three main fracture orientation clusters. The orientation of two of these clusters agree roughly with orientation of the main features. Cluster B has roughly the same orientation as GH and GI, while features GA, GB and GC have an orientation similar to the more loosely defined cluster C. The orientation of the third cluster (A) is northwest with a dip to northeast. It is found that 94% of all measured hydraulic transmissivity is accounted for by 4% of the tested rock, not all of this 'concentrated' transmissivity is with the major features defined by geophysics. When the hydraulic connections across the site are examied they show that there are several welldefined zones which permit rapid transmission of hydraulic signals. These are essentially from the northeast to the southwest. (66 figs., 21 tabs., 33 refs.)

Post-bronchoscopy pneumonia in patients suffering from lung cancer: Development and validation of a risk prediction score.

Science.gov (United States)

Takiguchi, Hiroto; Hayama, Naoki; Oguma, Tsuyoshi; Harada, Kazuki; Sato, Masako; Horio, Yukihiro; Tanaka, Jun; Tomomatsu, Hiromi; Tomomatsu, Katsuyoshi; Takihara, Takahisa; Niimi, Kyoko; Nakagawa, Tomoki; Masuda, Ryota; Aoki, Takuya; Urano, Tetsuya; Iwazaki, Masayuki; Asano, Koichiro

2017-05-01

The incidence, risk factors, and consequences of pneumonia after flexible bronchoscopy in patients with lung cancer have not been studied in detail. We retrospectively analyzed the data from 237 patients with lung cancer who underwent diagnostic bronchoscopy between April 2012 and July 2013 (derivation sample) and 241 patients diagnosed between August 2013 and July 2014 (validation sample) in a tertiary referral hospital in Japan. A score predictive of post-bronchoscopy pneumonia was developed in the derivation sample and tested in the validation sample. Pneumonia developed after bronchoscopy in 6.3% and 4.1% of patients in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Patients who developed post-bronchoscopy pneumonia needed to change or cancel their planned cancer therapy more frequently than those without pneumonia (56% vs. 6%, ppneumonia, which we added to develop our predictive score. The incidence of pneumonia associated with scores=0, 1, and ≥2 was 0, 3.7, and 13.4% respectively in the derivation sample (p=0.003), and 0, 2.9, and 9.7% respectively in the validation sample (p=0.016). The incidence of post-bronchoscopy pneumonia in patients with lung cancer was not rare and associated with adverse effects on the clinical course. A simple 3-point predictive score identified patients with lung cancer at high risk of post-bronchoscopy pneumonia prior to the procedure. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Respiratory Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of lactate clearance at 6 h for mortality prediction in critically ill children

OpenAIRE

Rajeev Kumar; Nirmal Kumar

2016-01-01

Background and Aims: To validate the lactate clearance (LC) at 6 h for mortality prediction in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU)-admitted patients and its comparison with a pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM 2) score. Design: A prospective, observational study in a tertiary care center. Materials and Methods: Children

Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

Science.gov (United States)

Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

2015-06-01

Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

OR25: Validity of predictive equations for resting energy expenditure for overweight older adults with and without diabetes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verreijen, A. M.; Garrido, V.; Engberink, M.F.; Memelink, R. G.; Visser, M.; Weijs, P. J.

2017-01-01

Rationale: Predictive equations for resting energy expenditure (REE) are used in the treatment of overweight and obesity, but the validity of these equations in overweight older adults is unknown. This study evaluates which predictive REE equation is the best alternative to indirect calorimetry in

The development and validation of the Incivility from Customers Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Nicole L; Holmvall, Camilla M

2013-07-01

Scant research has examined customers as sources of workplace incivility, despite evidence suggesting that mistreatment is more common from organizational outsiders, including customers, than from organizational members (Grandey, Kern, & Frone, 2007; Schat & Kelloway, 2005). As an important step in extending the literature on customer incivility, we conducted two studies to develop and validate a measure of this construct. Study 1 used focus groups of retail and restaurant employees (n = 30) to elicit a list of uncivil customer behaviors, based on which we wrote initial scale items. Study 2 used a correlational survey design (n = 439) to pare down the number of scale items to 10 and to garner reliability and validity evidence for the scale. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses show that the scale is unidimensional and distinguishable from measures of the related, but distinct, constructs of interpersonal justice and psychological aggression from customers. Reliability analyses show that the scale is internally consistent. Significant correlations between the scale and individuals' job satisfaction, turnover intentions, and general and job-specific psychological strain provide evidence of criterion-related validity. Hierarchical regression analyses show that the scale significantly predicts three of four organizational and personal strain outcomes over and above a workplace incivility measure adapted for customer incivility, providing some evidence of incremental validity. Limitations and future research directions are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

External validation of the ability of the DRAGON score to predict outcome after thrombolysis treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ovesen, Christian Aavang; Christensen, Anders; Nielsen, J K

2013-01-01

Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant plasmino......Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant...... and their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was assessed after 3 months. Three hundred and three patients were included in the analysis. The DRAGON scale proved to have a good discriminative ability for predicting highly unfavourable outcome (mRS 5-6) (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]: 0...

Traits across the personality hierarchy differentially relate to positive and negative affect: Evidence for the predictive validity of empirically derived meta-traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Hengartner, Michael P; Graf, Markus; Schreiber, Marc

2017-05-01

There is increasing interest in the construct validity of higher-order domains of the Big Five personality traits. A total of 831 persons from the Swiss population completed the International Personality Item Pool and an adaptation of the Positive and Negative Affect Scales. Using Goldberg's bass-ackwards method, we found evidence for the general factor of personality (GFP) and the two meta-traits of positive emotionality (blend of low neuroticism and high extraversion) and constraint (blend of high agreeableness and conscientiousness). In association with positive affect, the explanatory power of the GFP (r = 0.43) and positive emotionality (r = 0.37) was largely superior to extraversion (r = 0.24), conscientiousness (r = 0.18), agreeableness (r = 0.09) and openness (r = 0.04), although not neuroticism (r = -0.34). In association with negative affect, neuroticism (r = 0.41), the GFP (r = -0.36) and positive emotionality (r = -0.35) were the most powerful single predictors. We conclude that the higher-order structure of personality is best explained by the meta-traits of positive emotionality and constraint, which correspond closely to the well-established superfactors of internalizing and externalizing. We further demonstrate that these have substantial criterion validity when broad positive and negative affect is the outcome of interest. These findings help to relate Big Five meta-traits to pathological personality. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Action identity: evidence from self-recognition, prediction, and coordination.

Science.gov (United States)

Knoblich, Günther; Flach, Rüdiger

2003-12-01

Prior research suggests that the action system is responsible for creating an immediate sense of self by determining whether certain sensations and perceptions are the result of one's own actions. In addition, it is assumed that declarative, episodic, or autobiographical memories create a temporally extended sense of self or some form of identity. In the present article, we review recent evidence suggesting that action (procedural) knowledge also forms part of a person's identity, an action identity, so to speak. Experiments that addressed self-recognition of past actions, prediction, and coordination provide ample evidence for this assumption. The phenomena observed in these experiments can be explained by the assumption that observing an action results in the activation of action representations, the more so, when the action observed corresponds to the way in which the observer would produce it.

Model validation and the role of the proposed Rock Characterisation Facility at Sellafield. Proof of evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wallace, H.

1996-01-01

Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. An examination of the groundwater flow models used by Nirex and the procedure for their validation have led to the following conclusions: no evidence has been presented by Nirex to show that the construction of the RCF will improve the confidence they claim to have in the site; the prospects are slim for validating the models of present groundwater flow so that they satisfy the criteria to meet the risk target; it is extremely unlikely that results from the RCF will increase confidence in a safety assessment of this site; all the evidence available to date suggests that the risk assessment is not, and will not become, robust to variations in flux through the repository. (1 figure; 8 references). (UK)

Building and validating a prediction model for paediatric type 1 diabetes risk using next generation targeted sequencing of class II HLA genes.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Lue Ping; Carlsson, Annelie; Larsson, Helena Elding; Forsander, Gun; Ivarsson, Sten A; Kockum, Ingrid; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Marcus, Claude; Persson, Martina; Samuelsson, Ulf; Örtqvist, Eva; Pyo, Chul-Woo; Bolouri, Hamid; Zhao, Michael; Nelson, Wyatt C; Geraghty, Daniel E; Lernmark, Åke

2017-11-01

It is of interest to predict possible lifetime risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children for recruiting high-risk subjects into longitudinal studies of effective prevention strategies. Utilizing a case-control study in Sweden, we applied a recently developed next generation targeted sequencing technology to genotype class II genes and applied an object-oriented regression to build and validate a prediction model for T1D. In the training set, estimated risk scores were significantly different between patients and controls (P = 8.12 × 10 -92 ), and the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was 0.917. Using the validation data set, we validated the result with AUC of 0.886. Combining both training and validation data resulted in a predictive model with AUC of 0.903. Further, we performed a "biological validation" by correlating risk scores with 6 islet autoantibodies, and found that the risk score was significantly correlated with IA-2A (Z-score = 3.628, P < 0.001). When applying this prediction model to the Swedish population, where the lifetime T1D risk ranges from 0.5% to 2%, we anticipate identifying approximately 20 000 high-risk subjects after testing all newborns, and this calculation would identify approximately 80% of all patients expected to develop T1D in their lifetime. Through both empirical and biological validation, we have established a prediction model for estimating lifetime T1D risk, using class II HLA. This prediction model should prove useful for future investigations to identify high-risk subjects for prevention research in high-risk populations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factors associated with therapeutic inertia in hypertension: validation of a predictive model.

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Redón, Josep; Coca, Antonio; Lázaro, Pablo; Aguilar, Ma Dolores; Cabañas, Mercedes; Gil, Natividad; Sánchez-Zamorano, Miguel Angel; Aranda, Pedro

2010-08-01

To study factors associated with therapeutic inertia in treating hypertension and to develop a predictive model to estimate the probability of therapeutic inertia in a given medical consultation, based on variables related to the consultation, patient, physician, clinical characteristics, and level of care. National, multicentre, observational, cross-sectional study in primary care and specialist (hospital) physicians who each completed a questionnaire on therapeutic inertia, provided professional data and collected clinical data on four patients. Therapeutic inertia was defined as a consultation in which treatment change was indicated (i.e., SBP >or= 140 or DBP >or= 90 mmHg in all patients; SBP >or= 130 or DBP >or= 80 in patients with diabetes or stroke), but did not occur. A predictive model was constructed and validated according to the factors associated with therapeutic inertia. Data were collected on 2595 patients and 13,792 visits. Therapeutic inertia occurred in 7546 (75%) of the 10,041 consultations in which treatment change was indicated. Factors associated with therapeutic inertia were primary care setting, male sex, older age, SPB and/or DBP values close to normal, treatment with more than one antihypertensive drug, treatment with an ARB II, and more than six visits/year. Physician characteristics did not weigh heavily in the association. The predictive model was valid internally and externally, with acceptable calibration, discrimination and reproducibility, and explained one-third of the variability in therapeutic inertia. Although therapeutic inertia is frequent in the management of hypertension, the factors explaining it are not completely clear. Whereas some aspects of the consultations were associated with therapeutic inertia, physician characteristics were not a decisive factor.

Validity Evidence for a Serious Game to Assess Performance on Critical Pediatric Emergency Medicine Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerard, James M; Scalzo, Anthony J; Borgman, Matthew A; Watson, Christopher M; Byrnes, Chelsie E; Chang, Todd P; Auerbach, Marc; Kessler, David O; Feldman, Brian L; Payne, Brian S; Nibras, Sohail; Chokshi, Riti K; Lopreiato, Joseph O

2018-01-26

We developed a first-person serious game, PediatricSim, to teach and assess performances on seven critical pediatric scenarios (anaphylaxis, bronchiolitis, diabetic ketoacidosis, respiratory failure, seizure, septic shock, and supraventricular tachycardia). In the game, players are placed in the role of a code leader and direct patient management by selecting from various assessment and treatment options. The objective of this study was to obtain supportive validity evidence for the PediatricSim game scores. Game content was developed by 11 subject matter experts and followed the American Heart Association's 2011 Pediatric Advanced Life Support Provider Manual and other authoritative references. Sixty subjects with three different levels of experience were enrolled to play the game. Before game play, subjects completed a 40-item written pretest of knowledge. Game scores were compared between subject groups using scoring rubrics developed for the scenarios. Validity evidence was established and interpreted according to Messick's framework. Content validity was supported by a game development process that involved expert experience, focused literature review, and pilot testing. Subjects rated the game favorably for engagement, realism, and educational value. Interrater agreement on game scoring was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91, 95% confidence interval = 0.89-0.9). Game scores were higher for attendings followed by residents then medical students (Pc game and written test scores (r = 0.84, P game scores to assess knowledge of pediatric emergency medicine resuscitation.

Derivation and External Validation of Prediction Models for Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Following Acute Kidney Injury.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Matthew T; Pannu, Neesh; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Austin, Peter C; Tan, Zhi; McArthur, Eric; Manns, Braden J; Tonelli, Marcello; Wald, Ron; Quinn, Robert R; Ravani, Pietro; Garg, Amit X

2017-11-14

Some patients will develop chronic kidney disease after a hospitalization with acute kidney injury; however, no risk-prediction tools have been developed to identify high-risk patients requiring follow-up. To derive and validate predictive models for progression of acute kidney injury to advanced chronic kidney disease. Data from 2 population-based cohorts of patients with a prehospitalization estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of more than 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 and who had survived hospitalization with acute kidney injury (defined by a serum creatinine increase during hospitalization > 0.3 mg/dL or > 50% of their prehospitalization baseline), were used to derive and validate multivariable prediction models. The risk models were derived from 9973 patients hospitalized in Alberta, Canada (April 2004-March 2014, with follow-up to March 2015). The risk models were externally validated with data from a cohort of 2761 patients hospitalized in Ontario, Canada (June 2004-March 2012, with follow-up to March 2013). Demographic, laboratory, and comorbidity variables measured prior to discharge. Advanced chronic kidney disease was defined by a sustained reduction in eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 for at least 3 months during the year after discharge. All participants were followed up for up to 1 year. The participants (mean [SD] age, 66 [15] years in the derivation and internal validation cohorts and 69 [11] years in the external validation cohort; 40%-43% women per cohort) had a mean (SD) baseline serum creatinine level of 1.0 (0.2) mg/dL and more than 20% had stage 2 or 3 acute kidney injury. Advanced chronic kidney disease developed in 408 (2.7%) of 9973 patients in the derivation cohort and 62 (2.2%) of 2761 patients in the external validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, 6 variables were independently associated with the outcome: older age, female sex, higher baseline serum creatinine value, albuminuria, greater severity of acute kidney injury, and higher

Predicting the success of IVF: external validation of the van Loendersloot's model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarais, Veronica; Reschini, Marco; Busnelli, Andrea; Biancardi, Rossella; Paffoni, Alessio; Somigliana, Edgardo

2016-06-01

Is the predictive model for IVF success proposed by van Loendersloot et al. valid in a different geographical and cultural context? The model discriminates well but was less accurate than in the original context where it was developed. Several independent groups have developed models that combine different variables with the aim of estimating the chance of pregnancy with IVF but only four of them have been externally validated. One of these four, the van Loendersloot's model, deserves particular attention and further investigation for at least three reasons; (i) the reported area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-statistics) in the temporal validation setting was the highest reported to date (0.68), (ii) the perspective of the model is clinically wise since it includes variables obtained from previous failed cycles, if any, so it can be applied to any women entering an IVF cycle, (iii) the model lacks external validation in a geographically different center. Retrospective cohort study of women undergoing oocyte retrieval for IVF between January 2013 and December 2013 at the infertility unit of the Fondazione Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico of Milan, Italy. Only the first oocyte retrieval cycle performed during the study period was included in the study. Women with previous IVF cycles were excluded if the last one before the study cycle was in another center. The main outcome was the cumulative live birth rate per oocytes retrieval. Seven hundred seventy-two women were selected. Variables included in the van Loendersloot's model and the relative weights (beta) were used. The variable resulting from this combination (Y) was transformed into a probability. The discriminatory capacity was assessed using the c-statistics. Calibration was made using a logistic regression that included Y as the unique variable and live birth as the outcome. Data are presented using both the original and the calibrated models. Performance was evaluated

Western Validation of a Novel Gastric Cancer Prognosis Prediction Model in US Gastric Cancer Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Yanghee; Goldner, Bryan; Son, Taeil; Song, Kijun; Noh, Sung Hoon; Fong, Yuman; Hyung, Woo Jin

2018-03-01

A novel prediction model for accurate determination of 5-year overall survival of gastric cancer patients was developed by an international collaborative group (G6+). This prediction model was created using a single institution's database of 11,851 Korean patients and included readily available and clinically relevant factors. Already validated using external East Asian cohorts, its applicability in the American population was yet to be determined. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) dataset, 2014 release, all patients diagnosed with gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent surgical resection between 2002 and 2012, were selected. Characteristics for analysis included: age, sex, depth of tumor invasion, number of positive lymph nodes, total lymph nodes retrieved, presence of distant metastasis, extent of resection, and histology. Concordance index (C-statistic) was assessed using the novel prediction model and compared with the prognostic index, the seventh edition of the TNM staging system. Of the 26,019 gastric cancer patients identified from the SEER database, 15,483 had complete datasets. Validation of the novel prediction tool revealed a C-statistic of 0.762 (95% CI 0.754 to 0.769) compared with the seventh TNM staging model, C-statistic 0.683 (95% CI 0.677 to 0.689), (p prediction model for gastric cancer in the American patient population. Its superior prediction of the 5-year survival of gastric cancer patients in a large Western cohort strongly supports its global applicability. Importantly, this model allows for accurate prognosis for an increasing number of gastric cancer patients worldwide, including those who received inadequate lymphadenectomy or underwent a noncurative resection. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Relapse among Young Adults: Psychometric Validation of the Advanced Warning of Relapse (AWARE) Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, John F.; Hoeppner, Bettina B.; Urbanoski, Karen A.; Slaymaker, Valerie

2011-01-01

Objective Failure to maintain abstinence despite incurring severe harm is perhaps the key defining feature of addiction. Relapse prevention strategies have been developed to attenuate this propensity to relapse, but predicting who will, and who will not, relapse has stymied attempts to more efficiently tailor treatments according to relapse risk profile. Here we examine the psychometric properties of a promising relapse risk measure - the Advance WArning of RElapse scale (AWARE) scale (Miller and Harris, 2000) in an understudied but clinically important sample of young adults. Method Inpatient youth (N=303; Age 18-24; 26% female) completed the AWARE scale and the Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI) at the end of residential treatment, and at 1-, 3-, and 6-months following discharge. Internal and convergent validity was tested for each of these four timepoints using confirmatory factor analysis and correlations (with BSI scores). Predictive validity was tested for relapse 1, 3, and 6 months following discharge, as was incremental utility, where AWARE scores were used as predictors of any substance use while controlling for treatment entry substance use severity and having spent time in a controlled environment following treatment. Results Confirmatory factor analysis revealed a single, internally consistent, 25-item factor that demonstrated convergent validity and predicted subsequent relapse alone and when controlling for other important relapse risk predictors. Conclusions The AWARE scale may be a useful and efficient clinical tool for assessing short-term relapse risk among young people and, thus, could serve to enhance the effectiveness of relapse prevention efforts. PMID:21700396

Predicting relapse among young adults: psychometric validation of the Advanced WArning of RElapse (AWARE) scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, John F; Hoeppner, Bettina B; Urbanoski, Karen A; Slaymaker, Valerie

2011-10-01

Failure to maintain abstinence despite incurring severe harm is perhaps the key defining feature of addiction. Relapse prevention strategies have been developed to attenuate this propensity to relapse, but predicting who will, and who will not, relapse has stymied attempts to more efficiently tailor treatments according to relapse risk profile. Here we examine the psychometric properties of a promising relapse risk measure-the Advance WArning of RElapse (AWARE) scale (Miller & Harris, 2000) in an understudied but clinically important sample of young adults. Inpatient youth (N=303; Ages 18-24; 26% female) completed the AWARE scale and the Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI) at the end of residential treatment, and at 1-, 3-, and 6-months following discharge. Internal and convergent validity was tested for each of these four timepoints using confirmatory factor analysis and correlations (with BSI scores). Predictive validity was tested for relapse 1, 3, and 6 months following discharge, as was incremental utility, where AWARE scores were used as predictors of any substance use while controlling for treatment entry substance use severity and having spent time in a controlled environment following treatment. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed a single, internally consistent, 25-item factor that demonstrated convergent validity and predicted subsequent relapse alone and when controlling for other important relapse risk predictors. The AWARE scale may be a useful and efficient clinical tool for assessing short-term relapse risk among young people and, thus, could serve to enhance the effectiveness of relapse prevention efforts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a prediction model for insulin-associated hypoglycemia in non-critically ill hospitalized adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathioudakis, Nestoras Nicolas; Everett, Estelle; Routh, Shuvodra; Pronovost, Peter J; Yeh, Hsin-Chieh; Golden, Sherita Hill; Saria, Suchi

2018-01-01

To develop and validate a multivariable prediction model for insulin-associated hypoglycemia in non-critically ill hospitalized adults. We collected pharmacologic, demographic, laboratory, and diagnostic data from 128 657 inpatient days in which at least 1 unit of subcutaneous insulin was administered in the absence of intravenous insulin, total parenteral nutrition, or insulin pump use (index days). These data were used to develop multivariable prediction models for biochemical and clinically significant hypoglycemia (blood glucose (BG) of ≤70 mg/dL and model development and validation, respectively. Using predictors of age, weight, admitting service, insulin doses, mean BG, nadir BG, BG coefficient of variation (CV BG ), diet status, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease (CKD), liver disease, and digestive disease, our model achieved a c-statistic of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.78), positive likelihood ratio (+LR) of 3.5 (95% CI 3.4 to 3.6) and negative likelihood ratio (-LR) of 0.32 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.35) for prediction of biochemical hypoglycemia. Using predictors of sex, weight, insulin doses, mean BG, nadir BG, CV BG , diet status, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, CKD stage, and steroid use, our model achieved a c-statistic of 0.80 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.82), +LR of 3.8 (95% CI 3.7 to 4.0) and -LR of 0.2 (95% CI 0.2 to 0.3) for prediction of clinically significant hypoglycemia. Hospitalized patients at risk of insulin-associated hypoglycemia can be identified using validated prediction models, which may support the development of real-time preventive interventions.

Predictive timing disturbance is a precise marker of schizophrenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentina Ciullo

2018-06-01

Our findings shed new light on the debate over the specificity of timing distortions in SZ, providing evidence that predictive timing is a precise marker of SZ, more sensitive than duration estimation, serving as a valid heuristic for studying the pathophysiology of the disorder.

Anatomical Cystocele Recurrence: Development and Internal Validation of a Prediction Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Vergeldt, Tineke F M; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Notten, Kim J B; Kluivers, Kirsten B; Weemhoff, Mirjam

2016-02-01

To develop a prediction model that estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence after surgery. The databases of two multicenter prospective cohort studies were combined, and we performed a retrospective secondary analysis of these data. Women undergoing an anterior colporrhaphy without mesh materials and without previous pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery filled in a questionnaire, underwent translabial three-dimensional ultrasonography, and underwent staging of POP preoperatively and postoperatively. We developed a prediction model using multivariable logistic regression and internally validated it using standard bootstrapping techniques. The performance of the prediction model was assessed by computing indices of overall performance, discriminative ability, calibration, and its clinical utility by computing test characteristics. Of 287 included women, 149 (51.9%) had anatomical cystocele recurrence. Factors included in the prediction model were assisted delivery, preoperative cystocele stage, number of compartments involved, major levator ani muscle defects, and levator hiatal area during Valsalva. Potential predictors that were excluded after backward elimination because of high P values were age, body mass index, number of vaginal deliveries, and family history of POP. The shrinkage factor resulting from the bootstrap procedure was 0.91. After correction for optimism, Nagelkerke's R and the Brier score were 0.15 and 0.22, respectively. This indicates satisfactory model fit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the prediction model was 71.6% (95% confidence interval 65.7-77.5). After correction for optimism, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 69.7%. This prediction model, including history of assisted delivery, preoperative stage, number of compartments, levator defects, and levator hiatus, estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence.

A predictive validity study of the Learning Style Questionnaire (LSQ) using multiple, specific learning criteria

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kappe, F.R.; Boekholt, L.; den Rooyen, C.; van der Flier, H.

2009-01-01

Multiple and specific learning criteria were used to examine the predictive validity of the Learning Style Questionnaire (LSQ). Ninety-nine students in a college of higher learning in The Netherlands participated in a naturally occurring field study. The students were categorized into one of four

A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, J. D. (Prostat, Mesa, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Storlie, Curtis B. (North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC)

2006-10-01

Evidence theory provides an alternative to probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions that derives from epistemic uncertainty in model inputs, where the descriptor epistemic is used to indicate uncertainty that derives from a lack of knowledge with respect to the appropriate values to use for various inputs to the model. The potential benefit, and hence appeal, of evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive specification of uncertainty than is possible within the axiomatic structure on which probability theory is based. Unfortunately, the propagation of an evidence theory representation for uncertainty through a model is more computationally demanding than the propagation of a probabilistic representation for uncertainty, with this difficulty constituting a serious obstacle to the use of evidence theory in the representation of uncertainty in predictions obtained from computationally intensive models. This presentation describes and illustrates a sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory. Preliminary trials indicate that the presented strategy can be used to propagate uncertainty representations based on evidence theory in analysis situations where naive sampling-based (i.e., unsophisticated Monte Carlo) procedures are impracticable due to computational cost.

Validated thermodynamic prediction of AlP and eutectic (Si) solidification sequence in Al-Si cast alloys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang, S M; Schmid-Fetzer, R

2016-01-01

The eutectic microstructure in hypoeutectic Al-Si cast alloys is strongly influenced by AlP particles which are potent nuclei for the eutectic (Si) phase. The solidification sequence of AlP and (Si) phases is, thus, crucial for the nucleation of eutectic silicon with marked impact on its morphology. This study presents this interdependence between Si- and P-compositions, relevant for Al-Si cast alloys, on the solidification sequence of AlP and (Si). These data are predicted from a series of thermodynamic calculations. The predictions are based on a self-consistent thermodynamic description of the Al-Si-P ternary alloy system developed recently. They are validated by independent experimental studies on microstructure and undercooling in hypoeutectic Al-Si alloys. A constrained Scheil solidification simulation technique is applied to predict the undercooling under clean heterogeneous nucleation conditions, validated by dedicated experimental observations on entrained droplets. These specific undercooling values may be very large and their quantitative dependence on Si and P content of the Al alloy is presented. (paper)

Validation of Heat-Flux Predictions on the Outer Air Seal of a Transonic Turbine Blade (Preprint)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Clark, John P; Polanka, Marc D; Meininger, Matthew; Praisner, Thomas J

2006-01-01

.... So, a set of predictions of the heat flux on the Blade Outer Air Seal (BOAS) of a transonic turbine is here validated with time-resolved measurements obtained in a single-stage high pressure turbine rig...

Evidence of Reliability and Validity for a Children’s Auditory Continuous Performance Test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J. Lasee

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Continuous Performance Tests (CPTs are commonly utilized clinical measures of attention and response inhibition. While there have been many studies of CPTs that utilize a visual format, there is considerably less research employing auditory CPTs. The current study provides initial reliability and validity evidence for the Auditory Vigilance Screening Measure (AVSM, a newly developed CPT. Participants included 105 five- to nine-year-old children selected from two rural Midwestern school districts. Reliability data for the AVSM was collected through retesting of 42 participants. Validity was evaluated through correlation of AVSM scales with subscales from the ADHD Rating Scale–IV. Test–retest reliability coefficients ranged from .62 to .74 for AVSM subscales. A significant (r = .31 correlation was obtained between the AVSM Impulsivity Scale and teacher ratings of inattention. Limitations and implications for future study are discussed.

KAMUTHE video microanalysis system for use in Brazil: translation, cross-cultural adaptation and evidence of validity and reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo Schulz Gattino

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Background KAMUTHE is a video microanalysis system which observes preverbal communication within the music therapy setting. This system is indicated for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD or multiple disabilities. The purpose of this study was to translate, adapt to Brazilian Portuguese language and analyze some psychometric properties (reliability and validity evidence of KAMUTHE administration in Brazil for individuals with ASD. Participants and procedure Translation, back translation, analysis by judges, and pilot application were performed to obtain evidence of content and face validity. The second part of this study was to administer KAMUTHE in 39 consecutive children with ASD. An individual session of improvisational music therapy was applied to assess the different behaviors included in KAMUTHE. The intra-rater reliability, concurrent validity and convergent validity were analyzed. Results Translation and cross-cultural adaptation were followed and some cultural adaptations were needed. Inter-rater reliability was very good (ICCs 0.95-0.99 for the three child’s behaviors analyzed. Criteria validity with a moderate negative association was found (r = –.38, p = .017 comparing the behavior “Gazes at therapist” and the level of ASD along with the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS. Convergent validity was established between the behavior “Gazes at therapist” and the two nonlinguistic communication scales (social interaction and interests of the Children’s Communication Checklist (CCC with a moderate correlation (r = –.43, p = .005. Conclusions The administration of the KAMUTHE video microanalysis system showed positive results in children with ASD. Further studies are needed to improve the reliability and validity of the instrument in Brazil.

Incremental Validity of the WJ III COG: Limited Predictive Effects beyond the GIA-E

Science.gov (United States)

McGill, Ryan J.; Busse, R. T.

2015-01-01

This study is an examination of the incremental validity of Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) broad clusters from the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Cognitive Abilities (WJ III COG) for predicting scores on the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Achievement (WJ III ACH). The participants were children and adolescents, ages 6-18 (n = 4,722), drawn from the WJ…

External Validation and Update of a Prediction Rule for the Duration of Sickness Absence Due to Common Mental Disorders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Norder, Giny; Roelen, Corne A. M.; van der Klink, Jac J. L.; Bultmann, Ute; Sluiter, J. K.; Nieuwenhuijsen, K.

Purpose The objective of the present study was to validate an existing prediction rule (including age, education, depressive/anxiety symptoms, and recovery expectations) for predictions of the duration of sickness absence due to common mental disorders (CMDs) and investigate the added value of

A six-factor model of brand personality and its predictive validity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Živanović Marko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The study examines applicability and usefulness of HEXACO-based model in the description of brand personality. Following contemporary theoretical developments in human personality research, Study 1 explored the latent personality structure of 120 brands using descriptors of six personality traits as defined in HEXACO model: Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Openness. The results of exploratory factor analyses have supported HEXACO personality six-factor structure to a large extent. In Study 2 we addressed the question of predictive validity of HEXACO-based brand personality. Brand personality traits, but predominantly Honesty-Humility, accounted for substantial amount of variance in prediction of important aspects of consumer-brand relationship: attitude toward brand, perceived quality of a brand, and brand loyalty. The implications of applying HEXACO-based brand personality in marketing research are discussed. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 179018 and Grant no. 175012

Assessing the reliability, predictive and construct validity of historical, clinical and risk management-20 (HCR-20) in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Sada, Andrea; Robles-García, Rebeca; Martínez-López, Nicolás; Hernández-Ramírez, Rafael; Tovilla-Zarate, Carlos-Alfonso; López-Munguía, Fernando; Suárez-Alvarez, Enrique; Ayala, Xochitl; Fresán, Ana

2016-08-01

Assessing dangerousness to gauge the likelihood of future violent behaviour has become an integral part of clinical mental health practice in forensic and non-forensic psychiatric settings, one of the most effective instruments for this being the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management-20 (HCR-20). To examine the HCR-20 factor structure in Mexican psychiatric inpatients and to obtain its predictive validity and reliability for use in this population. In total, 225 patients diagnosed with psychotic, affective or personality disorders were included. The HCR-20 was applied at hospital admission and violent behaviours were assessed during psychiatric hospitalization using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). Construct validity, predictive validity and internal consistency were determined. Violent behaviour remains more severe in patients classified in the high-risk group during hospitalization. Fifteen items displayed adequate communalities in the original designated domains of the HCR-20 and internal consistency of the instruments was high. The HCR-20 is a suitable instrument for predicting violence risk in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

Recent evidence of the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis for Thailand

OpenAIRE

Komain Jiranyakul

2010-01-01

Numerous empirical studies have devoted to analyze the role of exports in the growth process. This paper examines the relationship between real exports and real GDP in Thailand using quarterly data from 1993 to 2008. The results from the bounds testing for cointegration in a multivariate framework show that there is evidence of the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis, even though some previous studies that used Thailand data reject it. There exists the long-run causation running from...

Development and validation of outcome prediction models for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage : The SAHIT multinational cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jaja, Blessing N R; Saposnik, Gustavo; Lingsma, Hester F.; Macdonald, Erin; Thorpe, Kevin E.; Mamdani, Muhammed; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Molyneux, Andrew; Manoel, Airton Leonardo De Oliveira; Schatlo, Bawarjan; Hanggi, Daniel; Hasan, David M.; Wong, George K C; Etminan, Nima; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Torner, James C.; Schaller, Karl L.; Suarez, Jose I.; Stienen, Martin N.; Vergouwen, Mervyn D.I.; Rinkel, Gabriel J.E.; Spears, Julian; Cusimano, Michael D.; Todd, Michael; Le Roux, Peter; Kirkpatrick, Peter J.; Pickard, John; Van Den Bergh, Walter M.; Murray, Gordon D; Johnston, S. Claiborne; Yamagata, Sen; Mayer, Stephan A.; Schweizer, Tom A.; Macdonald, R. Loch

2018-01-01

Objective To develop and validate a set of practical prediction tools that reliably estimate the outcome of subarachnoid haemorrhage from ruptured intracranial aneurysms (SAH). Design Cohort study with logistic regression analysis to combine predictors and treatment modality. Setting Subarachnoid

Implicit and explicit preferences for physical attractiveness in a romantic partner: a double dissociation in predictive validity.

Science.gov (United States)

Eastwick, Paul W; Eagly, Alice H; Finkel, Eli J; Johnson, Sarah E

2011-11-01

Five studies develop and examine the predictive validity of an implicit measure of the preference for physical attractiveness in a romantic partner. Three hypotheses were generally supported. First, 2 variants of the go/no-go association task revealed that participants, on average, demonstrate an implicit preference (i.e., a positive spontaneous affective reaction) for physical attractiveness in a romantic partner. Second, these implicit measures were not redundant with a traditional explicit measure: The correlation between these constructs was .00 on average, and the implicit measures revealed no reliable sex differences, unlike the explicit measure. Third, explicit and implicit measures exhibited a double dissociation in predictive validity. Specifically, explicit preferences predicted the extent to which attractiveness was associated with participants' romantic interest in opposite-sex photographs but not their romantic interest in real-life opposite-sex speed-daters or confederates. Implicit preferences showed the opposite pattern. This research extends prior work on implicit processes in romantic relationships and offers the first demonstration that any measure of a preference for a particular characteristic in a romantic partner (an implicit measure of physical attractiveness, in this case) predicts individuals' evaluation of live potential romantic partners.

Validity of the Optometry Admission Test in Predicting Performance in Schools and Colleges of Optometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Gene A.; Johnston, JoElle

1997-01-01

A study examined the relationship between Optometry Admission Test scores and pre-optometry or undergraduate grade point average (GPA) with first and second year performance in optometry schools. The test's predictive validity was limited but significant, and comparable to those reported for other admission tests. In addition, the scores…

Predictive Validity of Early Literacy Measures for Korean English Language Learners in the United States

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Han, Jeanie Nam; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

2015-01-01

This study examined the predictive validity of early literacy measures with first-grade Korean English language learners (ELLs) in the United States at varying levels of English proficiency. Participants were screened using Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) Phoneme Segmentation Fluency (PSF), DIBELS Nonsense Word Fluency…

Screening for frailty in community-dwelling elderly subjects: Predictive validity of the modified SEGA instrument.

Science.gov (United States)

Oubaya, N; Dramé, M; Novella, J-L; Quignard, E; Cunin, C; Jolly, D; Mahmoudi, R

2017-11-01

To study the capacity of the SEGAm instrument to predict loss of independence among elderly community-dwelling subjects. The study was performed in four French departments (Ardennes, Marne, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Meuse). Subjects aged 65 years or more, living at home, who could read and understand French, with a degree of autonomy corresponding to groups 5 or 6 in the AGGIR autonomy evaluation scale were included. Assessment included demographic characteristics, comprehensive geriatric assessment, and the SEGAm instrument at baseline. Subjects had follow-up visits at home at 6 and 12 months. During follow-up, vital status and level of independence were recorded. Logistic regression was used to study predictive validity of the SEGAm instrument. Among the 116 subjects with complete follow-up, 84 (72.4%) were classed as not very frail at baseline, 23 (19.8%) as frail, and 9 (7.8%) as very frail; 63 (54.3%) suffered loss of at least one ADL or IADL at 12 months. By multivariable analysis, frailty status at baseline was significantly associated with loss of independence during the 12 months of follow-up (OR=4.52, 95% CI=1.40-14.68; p=0.01). We previously validated the SEGAm instrument in terms of feasibility, acceptability, internal structure validity, reliability, and discriminant validity. This instrument appears to be a suitable tool for screening frailty among community-dwelling elderly subjects, and could be used as a basis to plan early targeted interventions for subjects at risk of adverse outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive validity of childhood oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder: implications for the DSM-V.

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Burke, Jeffrey D; Waldman, Irwin; Lahey, Benjamin B

2010-11-01

Data are presented from 3 studies of children and adolescents to evaluate the predictive validity of childhood oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and conduct disorder (CD) as defined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) and the International Classification of Diseases, Version 10 (ICD-10; World Health Organization, 1992). The present analyses strongly support the predictive validity of these diagnoses by showing that they predict both future psychopathology and enduring functional impairment. Furthermore, the present findings generally support the hierarchical developmental hypothesis in DSM-IV that some children with ODD progress to childhood-onset CD, and some youth with CD progress to antisocial personality disorder (APD). Nonetheless, they reveal that CD does not always co-occur with ODD, particularly during adolescence. Importantly, the present findings suggest that ICD-10 diagnostic criteria for ODD, which treat CD symptoms as ODD symptoms when diagnostic criteria for CD are not met, identify more functionally impaired children than the more restrictive DSM-IV definition of ODD. Filling this "hole" in the DSM-IV criteria for ODD should be a priority for the DSM-V. In addition, the present findings suggest that although the psychopathic trait of interpersonal callousness in childhood independently predicts future APD, these findings do not confirm the hypothesis that callousness distinguishes a subset of children with CD with an elevated risk for APD. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

Multisite external validation of a risk prediction model for the diagnosis of blood stream infections in febrile pediatric oncology patients without severe neutropenia.

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Esbenshade, Adam J; Zhao, Zhiguo; Aftandilian, Catherine; Saab, Raya; Wattier, Rachel L; Beauchemin, Melissa; Miller, Tamara P; Wilkes, Jennifer J; Kelly, Michael J; Fernbach, Alison; Jeng, Michael; Schwartz, Cindy L; Dvorak, Christopher C; Shyr, Yu; Moons, Karl G M; Sulis, Maria-Luisa; Friedman, Debra L

2017-10-01

Pediatric oncology patients are at an increased risk of invasive bacterial infection due to immunosuppression. The risk of such infection in the absence of severe neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count ≥ 500/μL) is not well established and a validated prediction model for blood stream infection (BSI) risk offers clinical usefulness. A 6-site retrospective external validation was conducted using a previously published risk prediction model for BSI in febrile pediatric oncology patients without severe neutropenia: the Esbenshade/Vanderbilt (EsVan) model. A reduced model (EsVan2) excluding 2 less clinically reliable variables also was created using the initial EsVan model derivative cohort, and was validated using all 5 external validation cohorts. One data set was used only in sensitivity analyses due to missing some variables. From the 5 primary data sets, there were a total of 1197 febrile episodes and 76 episodes of bacteremia. The overall C statistic for predicting bacteremia was 0.695, with a calibration slope of 0.50 for the original model and a calibration slope of 1.0 when recalibration was applied to the model. The model performed better in predicting high-risk bacteremia (gram-negative or Staphylococcus aureus infection) versus BSI alone, with a C statistic of 0.801 and a calibration slope of 0.65. The EsVan2 model outperformed the EsVan model across data sets with a C statistic of 0.733 for predicting BSI and a C statistic of 0.841 for high-risk BSI. The results of this external validation demonstrated that the EsVan and EsVan2 models are able to predict BSI across multiple performance sites and, once validated and implemented prospectively, could assist in decision making in clinical practice. Cancer 2017;123:3781-3790. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Extending the validity of the Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire.

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Jansen, Elena; Mallan, Kimberley M; Daniels, Lynne A

2015-06-30

Feeding practices are commonly examined as potentially modifiable determinants of children's eating behaviours and weight status. Although a variety of questionnaires exist to assess different feeding aspects, many lack thorough reliability and validity testing. The Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ) is a tool designed to measure early feeding practices related to non-responsive feeding and structure of the meal environment. Face validity, factorial validity, internal reliability and cross-sectional correlations with children's eating behaviours have been established in mothers with 2-year-old children. The aim of the present study was to further extend the validity of the FPSQ by examining factorial, construct and predictive validity, and stability. Participants were from the NOURISH randomised controlled trial which evaluated an intervention with first-time mothers designed to promote protective feeding practices. Maternal feeding practices (FP) and child eating behaviours were assessed when children were aged 2 years and 3.7 years (n = 388). Confirmatory Factor analysis, group differences, predictive relationships, and stability were tested. The original 9-factor structure was confirmed when children were aged 3.7 ± 0.3 years. Cronbach's alpha was above the recommended 0.70 cut-off for all factors except Structured Meal Timing, Over Restriction and Distrust in Appetite which were 0.58, 0.67 and 0.66 respectively. Allocated group differences reflected behaviour consistent with intervention content and all feeding practices were stable across both time points (range of r = 0.45-0.70). There was some evidence for the predictive validity of factors with 2 FP showing expected relationships, 2 FP showing expected and unexpected relationships and 5 FP showing no relationship. Reliability and validity was demonstrated for most subscales of the FPSQ. Future validation is warranted with culturally diverse samples and with fathers and

Readmissions and death after ICU discharge: development and validation of two predictive models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omar Badawi

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Early discharge from the ICU is desirable because it shortens time in the ICU and reduces care costs, but can also increase the likelihood of ICU readmission and post-discharge unanticipated death if patients are discharged before they are stable. We postulated that, using eICU® Research Institute (eRI data from >400 ICUs, we could develop robust models predictive of post-discharge death and readmission that may be incorporated into future clinical information systems (CIS to assist ICU discharge planning. METHODS: Retrospective, multi-center, exploratory cohort study of ICU survivors within the eRI database between 1/1/2007 and 3/31/2011. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: DNR or care limitations at ICU discharge and discharge to location external to hospital. Patients were randomized (2∶1 to development and validation cohorts. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on a broad range of variables including: patient demographics, ICU admission diagnosis, admission severity of illness, laboratory values and physiologic variables present during the last 24 hours of the ICU stay. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. The primary outcomes were the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (auROC in the validation cohorts for the models predicting readmission and death within 48 hours of ICU discharge. RESULTS: 469,976 and 234,987 patients representing 219 hospitals were in the development and validation cohorts. Early ICU readmission and death was experienced by 2.54% and 0.92% of all patients, respectively. The relationship between predictors and outcomes (death vs readmission differed, justifying the need for separate models. The models for early readmission and death produced auROCs of 0.71 and 0.92, respectively. Both models calibrated well across risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our models for death and readmission after ICU discharge showed good to excellent discrimination and good calibration. Although

Development and validation of a predictive technology for creep closure of underground rooms in salt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munson, D.E.; DeVries, K.L.

1991-07-01

Because of the concern for public health and safety, when compared to normal engineering practice, radioactive waste repositories have quite unusual requirements governing performance assessment. In part, performance assessment requires prediction of time-dependent or creep response of the repository hundreds to thousands of years into the future. In salt, one specific need is to predict, with confidence, the time at which the repository rooms creep closed sufficiently to encapsulate the waste and seal the repository. Thus, a major task of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Program is to develop and validate this predictive technology to calculate creep of repository rooms in the bedded salt deposits of Southeastern New Mexico. 19 refs., 15 figs., 2 tabs

The diagnostic value of specific IgE to Ara h 2 to predict peanut allergy in children is comparable to a validated and updated diagnostic prediction model.

Science.gov (United States)

Klemans, Rob J B; Otte, Dianne; Knol, Mirjam; Knol, Edward F; Meijer, Yolanda; Gmelig-Meyling, Frits H J; Bruijnzeel-Koomen, Carla A F M; Knulst, André C; Pasmans, Suzanne G M A

2013-01-01

A diagnostic prediction model for peanut allergy in children was recently published, using 6 predictors: sex, age, history, skin prick test, peanut specific immunoglobulin E (sIgE), and total IgE minus peanut sIgE. To validate this model and update it by adding allergic rhinitis, atopic dermatitis, and sIgE to peanut components Ara h 1, 2, 3, and 8 as candidate predictors. To develop a new model based only on sIgE to peanut components. Validation was performed by testing discrimination (diagnostic value) with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration (agreement between predicted and observed frequencies of peanut allergy) with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and a calibration plot. The performance of the (updated) models was similarly analyzed. Validation of the model in 100 patients showed good discrimination (88%) but poor calibration (P original model: sex, skin prick test, peanut sIgE, and total IgE minus sIgE. When building a model with sIgE to peanut components, Ara h 2 was the only predictor, with a discriminative ability of 90%. Cutoff values with 100% positive and negative predictive values could be calculated for both the updated model and sIgE to Ara h 2. In this way, the outcome of the food challenge could be predicted with 100% accuracy in 59% (updated model) and 50% (Ara h 2) of the patients. Discrimination of the validated model was good; however, calibration was poor. The discriminative ability of Ara h 2 was almost comparable to that of the updated model, containing 4 predictors. With both models, the need for peanut challenges could be reduced by at least 50%. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

[Validation of a clinical prediction rule to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis].

Science.gov (United States)

Agüero, Gonzalo; Davenport, María C; Del Valle, María de la P; Gallegos, Paulina; Kannemann, Ana L; Bokser, Vivian; Ferrero, Fernando

2010-02-01

Despite most meningitis are not bacterial, antibiotics are usually administered on admission because bacterial meningitis is difficult to be rule-out. Distinguishing bacterial from aseptic meningitis on admission could avoid inappropriate antibiotic use and hospitalization. We aimed to validate a clinical prediction rule to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis in children, on arriving to the emergency room. This prospective study included patients aged or = 1000 cells/mm(3), CSF protein > or = 80 mg/dl, peripheral blood absolute neutrophil count > or = 10.000/mm(3), seizure = 1 point each. Sensitivity (S), specificity (E), positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV), positive and negative likelihood ratios (PLR and NLR) of the BMS to predict bacterial meningitis were calculated. Seventy patients with meningitis were included (14 bacterial meningitis). When BMS was calculated, 25 patients showed a BMS= 0 points, 11 BMS= 1 point, and 34 BMS > or = 2 points. A BMS = 0 showed S: 100%, E: 44%, VPP: 31%, VPN: 100%, RVP: 1,81 RVN: 0. A BMS > or = 2 predicted bacterial meningitis with S: 100%, E: 64%, VPP: 41%, VPN: 100%, PLR: 2.8, NLR:0. Using BMS was simple, and allowed identifying children with very low risk of bacterial meningitis. It could be a useful tool to assist clinical decision making.

Development and validation of a nomogram predicting recurrence risk in women with symptomatic urinary tract infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Tommaso; Mazzoli, Sandra; Migno, Serena; Malossini, Gianni; Lanzafame, Paolo; Mereu, Liliana; Tateo, Saverio; Wagenlehner, Florian M E; Pickard, Robert S; Bartoletti, Riccardo

2014-09-01

To develop and externally validate a novel nomogram predicting recurrence risk probability at 12 months in women after an episode of urinary tract infection. The study included 768 women from Santa Maria Annunziata Hospital, Florence, Italy, affected by urinary tract infections from January 2005 to December 2009. Another 373 women with the same criteria enrolled at Santa Chiara Hospital, Trento, Italy, from January 2010 to June 2012 were used to externally validate and calibrate the nomogram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models tested the relationship between urinary tract infection recurrence risk, and patient clinical and laboratory characteristics. The nomogram was evaluated by calculating concordance probabilities, as well as testing calibration of predicted urinary tract infection recurrence with observed urinary tract infections. Nomogram variables included: number of partners, bowel function, type of pathogens isolated (Gram-positive/negative), hormonal status, number of previous urinary tract infection recurrences and previous treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria. Of the original development data, 261 out of 768 women presented at least one episode of recurrence of urinary tract infection (33.9%). The nomogram had a concordance index of 0.85. The nomogram predictions were well calibrated. This model showed high discrimination accuracy and favorable calibration characteristics. In the validation group (373 women), the overall c-index was 0.83 (P = 0.003, 95% confidence interval 0.51-0.99), whereas the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.79-0.91). The present nomogram accurately predicts the recurrence risk of urinary tract infection at 12 months, and can assist in identifying women at high risk of symptomatic recurrence that can be suitable candidates for a prophylactic strategy. © 2014 The Japanese Urological Association.

Predictive validity of a three-dimensional model of performance anxiety in the context of tae-kwon-do.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Wen-Nuan Kara; Hardy, Lew; Woodman, Tim

2011-02-01

We tested the predictive validity of the recently validated three-dimensional model of performance anxiety (Chang, Hardy, & Markland, 2009) with elite tae-kwon-do competitors (N = 99). This conceptual framework emphasized the adaptive potential of anxiety by including a regulatory dimension (reflected by perceived control) along with the intensity-oriented dimensions of cognitive and physiological anxiety. Anxiety was assessed 30 min before a competitive contest using the Three-Factor Anxiety Inventory. Competitors rated their performance on a tae-kwon-do-specific performance scale within 30 min after completion of their contest. Moderated hierarchical regression analyses revealed initial support for the predictive validity of the three-dimensional performance anxiety model. The regulatory dimension of anxiety (perceived control) revealed significant main and interactive effects on performance. This dimension appeared to be adaptive, as performance was better under high than low perceived control, and best vs. worst performance was associated with highest vs. lowest perceived control, respectively. Results are discussed in terms of the importance of the regulatory dimension of anxiety.

Reliability and validity of the Fear of Intimacy Scale in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingersoll, Travis S; Norvilitis, Jill M; Zhang, Jie; Jia, Shuhua; Tetewsky, Sheldon

2008-05-01

Participants in China (n = 343) and the United States (n = 283) completed measures to assess the reliability and validity of the Fear of Intimacy Scale (Descutner & Thelen, 1991) with a Chinese population. Internal consistency was strong in both cultures, and the factor structure was also similar between cultures, with confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) identifying three-factor models in both samples. As evidence of convergent validity, the scale was positively correlated with depression and negatively correlated with social support and self-esteem. There were gender differences between cultures, but low levels of femininity were predictive of fear of intimacy in both cultures. The influence of individualism and collectivism varied, with high levels of individualism more predictive of a fear of intimacy in China than in the United States.

Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS)

OpenAIRE

Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

2012-01-01

Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to cri...

DES Prediction of Cavitation Erosion and Its Validation for a Ship Scale Propeller

Science.gov (United States)

Ponkratov, Dmitriy, Dr

2015-12-01

Lloyd's Register Technical Investigation Department (LR TID) have developed numerical functions for the prediction of cavitation erosion aggressiveness within Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. These functions were previously validated for a model scale hydrofoil and ship scale rudder [1]. For the current study the functions were applied to a cargo ship's full scale propeller, on which the severe cavitation erosion was reported. The performed Detach Eddy Simulation (DES) required a fine computational mesh (approximately 22 million cells), together with a very small time step (2.0E-4 s). As the cavitation for this type of vessel is primarily caused by a highly non-uniform wake, the hull was also included in the simulation. The applied method under predicted the cavitation extent and did not fully resolve the tip vortex; however, the areas of cavitation collapse were captured successfully. Consequently, the developed functions showed a very good prediction of erosion areas, as confirmed by comparison with underwater propeller inspection results.

[Risk Prediction Using Routine Data: Development and Validation of Multivariable Models Predicting 30- and 90-day Mortality after Surgical Treatment of Colorectal Cancer].

Science.gov (United States)

Crispin, Alexander; Strahwald, Brigitte; Cheney, Catherine; Mansmann, Ulrich

2018-06-04

Quality control, benchmarking, and pay for performance (P4P) require valid indicators and statistical models allowing adjustment for differences in risk profiles of the patient populations of the respective institutions. Using hospital remuneration data for measuring quality and modelling patient risks has been criticized by clinicians. Here we explore the potential of prediction models for 30- and 90-day mortality after colorectal cancer surgery based on routine data. Full census of a major statutory health insurer. Surgical departments throughout the Federal Republic of Germany. 4283 and 4124 insurants with major surgery for treatment of colorectal cancer during 2013 and 2014, respectively. Age, sex, primary and secondary diagnoses as well as tumor locations as recorded in the hospital remuneration data according to §301 SGB V. 30- and 90-day mortality. Elixhauser comorbidities, Charlson conditions, and Charlson scores were generated from the ICD-10 diagnoses. Multivariable prediction models were developed using a penalized logistic regression approach (logistic ridge regression) in a derivation set (patients treated in 2013). Calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed in an internal validation sample (patients treated in 2014) using calibration curves, Brier scores, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves) and the areas under the ROC curves (AUC). 30- and 90-day mortality rates in the learning-sample were 5.7 and 8.4%, respectively. The corresponding values in the validation sample were 5.9% and once more 8.4%. Models based on Elixhauser comorbidities exhibited the highest discriminatory power with AUC values of 0.804 (95% CI: 0.776 -0.832) and 0.805 (95% CI: 0.782-0.828) for 30- and 90-day mortality. The Brier scores for these models were 0.050 (95% CI: 0.044-0.056) and 0.067 (95% CI: 0.060-0.074) and similar to the models based on Charlson conditions. Regardless of the model, low predicted probabilities were well calibrated, while

Psychometric properties and convergent and predictive validity of an executive function test battery for two-year-olds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanna eMulder

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Executive function (EF is an important predictor of numerous developmental outcomes, such as academic achievement and behavioral adjustment. Although a plethora of measurement instruments exists to assess executive function in children, only few of these are suitable for toddlers, and even fewer have undergone psychometric evaluation. The present study evaluates the psychometric properties and validity of an assessment battery for measuring EF in two-year-olds. A sample of 2437 children were administered the assessment battery at a mean age of 2;4 years (SD = 0;3 years in a large-scale field study. Measures of both hot EF (snack and gift delay tasks and cool EF (six boxes, memory for location, and visual search task were included. Confirmatory Factor Analyses showed that a two-factor hot and cool EF model fitted the data better than a one-factor model. Measurement invariance was supported across groups differing in age, gender, socioeconomic status (SES, home language, and test setting. Criterion and convergent validity were evaluated by examining relationships between EF and age, gender, SES, home language, and parent and teacher reports of children’s attention and inhibitory control. Predictive validity of the test battery was investigated by regressing children’s pre-academic skills and behavioral problems at age three on the latent hot and cool EF factors at age two years. The test battery showed satisfactory psychometric quality and criterion, convergent, and predictive validity. Whereas cool EF predicted both pre-academic skills and behavior problems one year later, hot EF predicted behavior problems only. These results show that EF can be assessed with psychometrically sound instruments in children as young as two years, and that EF tasks can be reliably applied in large scale field research. The current instruments offer new opportunities for investigating EF in early childhood, and for evaluating interventions targeted at improving

Validation of an instrument to assess evidence-based practice knowledge, attitudes, access, and confidence in the dental environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hendricson, William D; Rugh, John D; Hatch, John P; Stark, Debra L; Deahl, Thomas; Wallmann, Elizabeth R

2011-02-01

This article reports the validation of an assessment instrument designed to measure the outcomes of training in evidence-based practice (EBP) in the context of dentistry. Four EBP dimensions are measured by this instrument: 1) understanding of EBP concepts, 2) attitudes about EBP, 3) evidence-accessing methods, and 4) confidence in critical appraisal. The instrument-the Knowledge, Attitudes, Access, and Confidence Evaluation (KACE)-has four scales, with a total of thirty-five items: EBP knowledge (ten items), EBP attitudes (ten), accessing evidence (nine), and confidence (six). Four elements of validity were assessed: consistency of items within the KACE scales (extent to which items within a scale measure the same dimension), discrimination (capacity to detect differences between individuals with different training or experience), responsiveness (capacity to detect the effects of education on trainees), and test-retest reliability. Internal consistency of scales was assessed by analyzing responses of second-year dental students, dental residents, and dental faculty members using Cronbach coefficient alpha, a statistical measure of reliability. Discriminative validity was assessed by comparing KACE scores for the three groups. Responsiveness was assessed by comparing pre- and post-training responses for dental students and residents. To measure test-retest reliability, the full KACE was completed twice by a class of freshman dental students seventeen days apart, and the knowledge scale was completed twice by sixteen faculty members fourteen days apart. Item-to-scale consistency ranged from 0.21 to 0.78 for knowledge, 0.57 to 0.83 for attitude, 0.70 to 0.84 for accessing evidence, and 0.87 to 0.94 for confidence. For discrimination, ANOVA and post hoc testing by the Tukey-Kramer method revealed significant score differences among students, residents, and faculty members consistent with education and experience levels. For responsiveness to training, dental students

DSM-5 antisocial personality disorder: predictive validity in a prison sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Edens, John F; Kelley, Shannon E; Lilienfeld, Scott O; Skeem, Jennifer L; Douglas, Kevin S

2015-04-01

Symptoms of antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), particularly remorselessness, are frequently introduced in legal settings as a risk factor for future violence in prison, despite a paucity of research on the predictive validity of this disorder. We examined whether an ASPD diagnosis or symptom-criteria counts could prospectively predict any form of institutional misconduct, as well as aggressive and violent infractions among newly admitted prisoners. Adult male (n = 298) and female (n = 55) offenders were recruited from 4 prison systems across the United States. At the time of study enrollment, diagnostic information was collected using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.; DSM-IV; APA, 1994) Axis II Personality Disorders (SCID-II; First, Gibbon, Spitzer, Williams, & Benjamin, 1997) supplemented by a detailed review of official records. Disciplinary records were obtained from inmates' respective prisons covering a 1-year period following study enrollment and misconduct was categorized hierarchically as any (general), aggressive (verbal/physical), or violent (physical). Dichotomous ASPD diagnoses and adult symptom-criteria counts did not significantly predict institutional misconduct across our 3 outcome variables, with effect sizes being close to 0 in magnitude. The symptom of remorselessness in particular showed no relation to future misconduct in prison. Childhood symptom counts of conduct disorder demonstrated modest predictive utility. Our results offer essentially no support for the claim that ASPD diagnoses can predict institutional misconduct in prison, regardless of the number of adult symptoms present. In forensic contexts, testimony that an ASPD diagnosis identifies defendants who will pose a serious threat while incarcerated in prison presently lacks any substantial scientific foundation. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

2017-01-01

Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

In-hospital risk prediction for post-stroke depression: development and validation of the Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

de Man-van Ginkel, Janneke M; Hafsteinsdóttir, Thóra B; Lindeman, Eline; Ettema, Roelof G A; Grobbee, Diederick E; Schuurmans, Marieke J

2013-09-01

The timely detection of post-stroke depression is complicated by a decreasing length of hospital stay. Therefore, the Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale was developed and validated. The Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale is a clinical prediction model for the early identification of stroke patients at increased risk for post-stroke depression. The study included 410 consecutive stroke patients who were able to communicate adequately. Predictors were collected within the first week after stroke. Between 6 to 8 weeks after stroke, major depressive disorder was diagnosed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted. A bootstrap-backward selection process resulted in a reduced model. Performance of the model was expressed by discrimination, calibration, and accuracy. The model included a medical history of depression or other psychiatric disorders, hypertension, angina pectoris, and the Barthel Index item dressing. The model had acceptable discrimination, based on an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 (0.72-0.85), and calibration (P value of the U-statistic, 0.96). Transforming the model to an easy-to-use risk-assessment table, the lowest risk category (sum score, depression, which increased to 82% in the highest category (sum score, >21). The clinical prediction model enables clinicians to estimate the degree of the depression risk for an individual patient within the first week after stroke.

Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

2018-05-01

The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development, Validation, and Implementation of a Medical Judgment Metric

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rami A. Ahmed DO, MHPE

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Medical decision making is a critical, yet understudied, aspect of medical education. Aims: To develop the Medical Judgment Metric (MJM, a numerical rubric to quantify good decisions in practice in simulated environments; and to obtain initial preliminary evidence of reliability and validity of the tool. Methods: The individual MJM items, domains, and sections of the MJM were built based on existing standardized frameworks. Content validity was determined by a convenient sample of eight experts. The MJM instrument was pilot tested in four medical simulations with a team of three medical raters assessing 40 participants with four levels of medical experience and skill. Results: Raters were highly consistent in their MJM scores in each scenario (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.965 to 0.987 as well as their evaluation of the expected patient outcome (Fleiss’s Kappa 0.791 to 0.906. For each simulation scenario, average rater cut-scores significantly predicted expected loss of life or stabilization (Cohen’s Kappa 0.851 to 0.880. Discussion : The MJM demonstrated preliminary evidence of reliability and validity.

New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints: Moving Beyond the KZ Index

OpenAIRE

Charles J. Hadlock; Joshua R. Pierce

2010-01-01

We collect detailed qualitative information from financial filings to categorize financial constraints for a random sample of firms from 1995 to 2004. Using this categorization, we estimate ordered logit models predicting constraints as a function of different quantitative factors. Our findings cast serious doubt on the validity of the KZ index as a measure of financial constraints, while offering mixed evidence on the validity of other common measures of constraints. We find that firm size a...

Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Bogaerts, Stefan; Spreen, Marinus; Ter Horst, Paul; Gerlsma, Coby

2018-06-01

This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koukoura, Christina

To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...

Gene expression signatures predict outcome in non-muscle invasive bladder carcinoma - a multi-center validation study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Lars Dyrskjøt; Zieger, Karsten; Real, Francisco X.

2007-01-01

and carcinoma in situ (CIS) and for predicting disease recurrence and progression. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We analyzed tumors from 404 patients diagnosed with bladder cancer in hospitals in Denmark, Sweden, England, Spain, and France using custom microarrays. Molecular classifications were compared with pathologic....... CONCLUSION: This multicenter validation study confirms in an independent series the clinical utility of molecular classifiers to predict the outcome of patients initially diagnosed with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. This information may be useful to better guide patient treatment....

The derivation and validation of a simple model for predicting in-hospital mortality of acutely admitted patients to internal medicine wards.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakhnini, Ali; Saliba, Walid; Schwartz, Naama; Bisharat, Naiel

2017-06-01

Limited information is available about clinical predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute unselected medical admissions. Such information could assist medical decision-making.To develop a clinical model for predicting in-hospital mortality in unselected acute medical admissions and to test the impact of secondary conditions on hospital mortality.This is an analysis of the medical records of patients admitted to internal medicine wards at one university-affiliated hospital. Data obtained from the years 2013 to 2014 were used as a derivation dataset for creating a prediction model, while data from 2015 was used as a validation dataset to test the performance of the model. For each admission, a set of clinical and epidemiological variables was obtained. The main diagnosis at hospitalization was recorded, and all additional or secondary conditions that coexisted at hospital admission or that developed during hospital stay were considered secondary conditions.The derivation and validation datasets included 7268 and 7843 patients, respectively. The in-hospital mortality rate averaged 7.2%. The following variables entered the final model; age, body mass index, mean arterial pressure on admission, prior admission within 3 months, background morbidity of heart failure and active malignancy, and chronic use of statins and antiplatelet agents. The c-statistic (ROC-AUC) of the prediction model was 80.5% without adjustment for main or secondary conditions, 84.5%, with adjustment for the main diagnosis, and 89.5% with adjustment for the main diagnosis and secondary conditions. The accuracy of the predictive model reached 81% on the validation dataset.A prediction model based on clinical data with adjustment for secondary conditions exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. We provide a proof of concept that there is an added value for incorporating secondary conditions while predicting probabilities of in-hospital mortality. Further improvement of the model performance

Predicting asthma in preschool children with asthma-like symptoms : Validating and updating the PIAMA risk score

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hafkamp-de Groen, Esther; Lingsma, Hester F.; Caudri, Daan; Levie, Deborah; Wijga, Alet; Koppelman, Gerard H.; Duijts, Liesbeth; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Smit, Henriette A.; Kerkhof, Marjan; Moll, Henriette A.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; de Jongste, Johan C.; Raat, Hein

2013-01-01

Background: The Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA) risk score predicts the probability of having asthma at school age among preschool children with suggestive symptoms. Objective: We sought to externally validate the PIAMA risk score at different ages and in ethnic and

Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate survival in patients with colorectal cancer: cohort study

OpenAIRE

Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

2017-01-01

Objective: To develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate absolute and conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer. \\ud \\ud Design: Cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database linked to the national cancer registry.\\ud \\ud Participants: 44 145 patients aged 15-99 with colorectal cancer from 947 practices to derive the equations. The equations were validated in 15 214 patients with colorectal cancer ...

Validity of a simple Internet-based outcome-prediction tool in patients with total hip replacement: a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Stöckli, Cornel; Theiler, Robert; Sidelnikov, Eduard; Balsiger, Maria; Ferrari, Stephen M; Buchzig, Beatus; Uehlinger, Kurt; Riniker, Christoph; Bischoff-Ferrari, Heike A

2014-04-01

We developed a user-friendly Internet-based tool for patients undergoing total hip replacement (THR) due to osteoarthritis to predict their pain and function after surgery. In the first step, the key questions were identified by statistical modelling in a data set of 375 patients undergoing THR. Based on multiple regression, we identified the two most predictive WOMAC questions for pain and the three most predictive WOMAC questions for functional outcome, while controlling for comorbidity, body mass index, age, gender and specific comorbidities relevant to the outcome. In the second step, a pilot study was performed to validate the resulting tool against the full WOMAC questionnaire among 108 patients undergoing THR. The mean difference between observed (WOMAC) and model-predicted value was -1.1 points (95% confidence interval, CI -3.8, 1.5) for pain and -2.5 points (95% CI -5.3, 0.3) for function. The model-predicted value was within 20% of the observed value in 48% of cases for pain and in 57% of cases for function. The tool demonstrated moderate validity, but performed weakly for patients with extreme levels of pain and extreme functional limitations at 3 months post surgery. This may have been partly due to early complications after surgery. However, the outcome-prediction tool may be useful in helping patients to become better informed about the realistic outcome of their THR.

Prediction of valid acidity in intact apples with Fourier transform near infrared spectroscopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yan-De; Ying, Yi-Bin; Fu, Xia-Ping

2005-03-01

To develop nondestructive acidity prediction for intact Fuji apples, the potential of Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) method with fiber optics in interactance mode was investigated. Interactance in the 800 nm to 2619 nm region was measured for intact apples, harvested from early to late maturity stages. Spectral data were analyzed by two multivariate calibration techniques including partial least squares (PLS) and principal component regression (PCR) methods. A total of 120 Fuji apples were tested and 80 of them were used to form a calibration data set. The influences of different data preprocessing and spectra treatments were also quantified. Calibration models based on smoothing spectra were slightly worse than that based on derivative spectra, and the best result was obtained when the segment length was 5 nm and the gap size was 10 points. Depending on data preprocessing and PLS method, the best prediction model yielded correlation coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.759, low root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.0677, low root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) of 0.0562. The results indicated the feasibility of FT-NIR spectral analysis for predicting apple valid acidity in a nondestructive way.

Developing and validating a model to predict the success of an IHCS implementation: the Readiness for Implementation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gustafson, David H; Hawkins, Robert P; Brennan, Patricia F; Dinauer, Susan; Johnson, Pauley R; Siegler, Tracy

2010-01-01

Objective To develop and validate the Readiness for Implementation Model (RIM). This model predicts a healthcare organization's potential for success in implementing an interactive health communication system (IHCS). The model consists of seven weighted factors, with each factor containing five to seven elements. Design Two decision-analytic approaches, self-explicated and conjoint analysis, were used to measure the weights of the RIM with a sample of 410 experts. The RIM model with weights was then validated in a prospective study of 25 IHCS implementation cases. Measurements Orthogonal main effects design was used to develop 700 conjoint-analysis profiles, which varied on seven factors. Each of the 410 experts rated the importance and desirability of the factors and their levels, as well as a set of 10 different profiles. For the prospective 25-case validation, three time-repeated measures of the RIM scores were collected for comparison with the implementation outcomes. Results Two of the seven factors, ‘organizational motivation’ and ‘meeting user needs,’ were found to be most important in predicting implementation readiness. No statistically significant difference was found in the predictive validity of the two approaches (self-explicated and conjoint analysis). The RIM was a better predictor for the 1-year implementation outcome than the half-year outcome. Limitations The expert sample, the order of the survey tasks, the additive model, and basing the RIM cut-off score on experience are possible limitations of the study. Conclusion The RIM needs to be empirically evaluated in institutions adopting IHCS and sustaining the system in the long term. PMID:20962135

The gender identity/gender dysphoria questionnaire for adolescents and adults: further validity evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Devita; Deogracias, Joseph J; Johnson, Laurel L; Bradley, Susan J; Kibblewhite, Sarah J; Owen-Anderson, Allison; Peterson-Badali, Michele; Meyer-Bahlburg, Heino F L; Zucker, Kenneth J

2010-01-01

This study aimed to provide further validity evidence for the dimensional measurement of gender identity and gender dysphoria in both adolescents and adults. Adolescents and adults with gender identity disorder (GID) were compared to clinical control (CC) adolescents and adults on the Gender Identity/Gender Dysphoria Questionnaire for Adolescents and Adults (GIDYQ-AA), a 27-item scale originally developed by Deogracias et al. (2007). In Study 1, adolescents with GID (n = 44) were compared to CC adolescents (n = 98); and in Study 2, adults with GID (n = 41) were compared to CC adults (n = 94). In both studies, clients with GID self-reported significantly more gender dysphoria than did the CCs, with excellent sensitivity and specificity rates. In both studies, degree of self-reported gender dysphoria was significantly correlated with recall of cross-gender behavior in childhood-a test of convergent validity. The research and clinical utility of the GIDYQ-AA is discussed, including directions for further research in distinct clinical populations.

Predicting Environmental Suitability for a Rare and Threatened Species (Lao Newt, Laotriton laoensis) Using Validated Species Distribution Models

Science.gov (United States)

Chunco, Amanda J.; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Sivongxay, Niane; Stuart, Bryan L.

2013-01-01

The Lao newt (Laotriton laoensis) is a recently described species currently known only from northern Laos. Little is known about the species, but it is threatened as a result of overharvesting. We integrated field survey results with climate and altitude data to predict the geographic distribution of this species using the niche modeling program Maxent, and we validated these predictions by using interviews with local residents to confirm model predictions of presence and absence. The results of the validated Maxent models were then used to characterize the environmental conditions of areas predicted suitable for L. laoensis. Finally, we overlaid the resulting model with a map of current national protected areas in Laos to determine whether or not any land predicted to be suitable for this species is coincident with a national protected area. We found that both area under the curve (AUC) values and interview data provided strong support for the predictive power of these models, and we suggest that interview data could be used more widely in species distribution niche modeling. Our results further indicated that this species is mostly likely geographically restricted to high altitude regions (i.e., over 1,000 m elevation) in northern Laos and that only a minute fraction of suitable habitat is currently protected. This work thus emphasizes that increased protection efforts, including listing this species as endangered and the establishment of protected areas in the region predicted to be suitable for L. laoensis, are urgently needed. PMID:23555808

LTDNA Evidence on Trial

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Paul

2016-01-01

Adopting the interpretative/hermeneutical method typical of much legal scholarship, this article considers two sets of issues pertaining to LTDNA profiles as evidence in criminal proceedings. The section titled Expert Evidence as Forensic Epistemic Warrant addresses some rather large questions about the epistemic status and probative value of expert testimony in general. It sketches a theoretical model of expert evidence, highlighting five essential criteria: (1) expert competence; (2) disciplinary domain; (3) methodological validity; (4) materiality; and (5) legal admissibility. This generic model of expert authority, highlighting law's fundamentally normative character, applies to all modern forms of criminal adjudication, across Europe and farther afield. The section titled LTDNA Evidence in UK Criminal Trials then examines English and Northern Irish courts' attempts to get to grips with LTDNA evidence in recent cases. Better appreciating the ways in which UK courts have addressed the challenges of LTDNA evidence may offer some insights into parallel developments in other legal systems. Appellate court rulings follow a predictable judicial logic, which might usefully be studied and reflected upon by any forensic scientist or statistician seeking to operate effectively in criminal proceedings. Whilst each legal jurisdiction has its own unique blend of jurisprudence, institutions, cultures and historical traditions, there is considerable scope for comparative analysis and cross-jurisdictional borrowing and instruction. In the spirit of promoting more nuanced and sophisticated international interdisciplinary dialogue, this article examines UK judicial approaches to LTDNA evidence and begins to elucidate their underlying institutional logic. Legal argument and broader policy debates are not confined to considerations of scientific validity, contamination risks and evidential integrity, or associated judgments of legal admissibility or exclusion. They also crucially

LTDNA Evidence on Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Paul

2016-01-01

Adopting the interpretative/hermeneutical method typical of much legal scholarship, this article considers two sets of issues pertaining to LTDNA profiles as evidence in criminal proceedings. The section titled Expert Evidence as Forensic Epistemic Warrant addresses some rather large questions about the epistemic status and probative value of expert testimony in general. It sketches a theoretical model of expert evidence, highlighting five essential criteria: (1) expert competence; (2) disciplinary domain; (3) methodological validity; (4) materiality; and (5) legal admissibility. This generic model of expert authority, highlighting law's fundamentally normative character, applies to all modern forms of criminal adjudication, across Europe and farther afield. The section titled LTDNA Evidence in UK Criminal Trials then examines English and Northern Irish courts' attempts to get to grips with LTDNA evidence in recent cases. Better appreciating the ways in which UK courts have addressed the challenges of LTDNA evidence may offer some insights into parallel developments in other legal systems. Appellate court rulings follow a predictable judicial logic, which might usefully be studied and reflected upon by any forensic scientist or statistician seeking to operate effectively in criminal proceedings. Whilst each legal jurisdiction has its own unique blend of jurisprudence, institutions, cultures and historical traditions, there is considerable scope for comparative analysis and cross-jurisdictional borrowing and instruction. In the spirit of promoting more nuanced and sophisticated international interdisciplinary dialogue, this article examines UK judicial approaches to LTDNA evidence and begins to elucidate their underlying institutional logic. Legal argument and broader policy debates are not confined to considerations of scientific validity, contamination risks and evidential integrity, or associated judgments of legal admissibility or exclusion. They also crucially

Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

2017-04-01

Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Daniel; Shiwakoti, Suvash; Bergholz, Peter; Grohn, Yrjo; Wiedmann, Martin

2015-01-01

Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce. PMID:26590280

Implementing assessments of robot-assisted technical skill in urological education: a systematic review and synthesis of the validity evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldenberg, Mitchell G; Lee, Jason Y; Kwong, Jethro C C; Grantcharov, Teodor P; Costello, Anthony

2018-03-31

To systematically review and synthesise the validity evidence supporting intraoperative and simulation-based assessments of technical skill in urological robot-assisted surgery (RAS), and make evidence-based recommendations for the implementation of these assessments in urological training. A literature search of the Medline, PsycINFO and Embase databases was performed. Articles using technical skill and simulation-based assessments in RAS were abstracted. Only studies involving urology trainees or faculty were included in the final analysis. Multiple tools for the assessment of technical robotic skill have been published, with mixed sources of validity evidence to support their use. These evaluations have been used in both the ex vivo and in vivo settings. Performance evaluations range from global rating scales to psychometrics, and assessments are carried out through automation, expert analysts, and crowdsourcing. There have been rapid expansions in approaches to RAS technical skills assessment, both in simulated and clinical settings. Alternative approaches to assessment in RAS, such as crowdsourcing and psychometrics, remain under investigation. Evidence to support the use of these metrics in high-stakes decisions is likely insufficient at present. © 2018 The Authors BJU International © 2018 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the criterion validity of nutrition assessment tools for diagnosing protein-energy malnutrition in the older community setting (the MACRo study).

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Skye; Craven, Dana; Kelly, Jaimon; Isenring, Elizabeth

2017-10-12

Malnutrition is a significant barrier to healthy and independent ageing in older adults who live in their own homes, and accurate diagnosis is a key step in managing the condition. However, there has not been sufficient systematic review or pooling of existing data regarding malnutrition diagnosis in the geriatric community setting. The current paper was conducted as part of the MACRo (Malnutrition in the Ageing Community Review) Study and seeks to determine the criterion (concurrent and predictive) validity and reliability of nutrition assessment tools in making a diagnosis of protein-energy malnutrition in the general older adult community. A systematic literature review was undertaken using six electronic databases in September 2016. Studies in any language were included which measured malnutrition via a nutrition assessment tool in adults ≥65 years living in their own homes. Data relating to the predictive validity of tools were analysed via meta-analyses. GRADE was used to evaluate the body of evidence. There were 6412 records identified, of which 104 potentially eligible records were screened via full text. Eight papers were included; two which evaluated the concurrent validity of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and six which evaluated the predictive validity of the MNA. The quality of the body of evidence for the concurrent validity of both the MNA and SGA was very low. The quality of the body of evidence for the predictive validity of the MNA in detecting risk of death was moderate (RR: 1.92 [95% CI: 1.55-2.39]; P < 0.00001; n = 2013 participants; n = 4 studies; I 2 : 0%). The quality of the body of evidence for the predictive validity of the MNA in detecting risk of poor physical function was very low (SMD: 1.02 [95%CI: 0.24-1.80]; P = 0.01; n = 4046 participants; n = 3 studies; I 2 :89%). Due to the small number of studies identified and no evaluation of the predictive validity of tools other than

About my Child: measuring 'Complexity' in neurodisability. Evidence of reliability and validity.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritzema, A M; Lach, L M; Rosenbaum, P; Nicholas, D

2016-05-01

About my Child, 26-item version (AMC-26) was developed as a measure of child health 'complexity' and has been proposed as a tool for understanding the functional needs of children and the priorities of families. The current study investigated the reliability and validity of AMC-26 with a sample of caregivers of children with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD; n = 258) who completed AMC-26 as part of a larger study on parenting children with NDD. A subsample of children from the larger study (n = 49) were assessed using standardized measures of cognitive and adaptive functioning. Factor analysis revealed that a four-component model explained 51.12% of the variance. Cronbach's alpha was calculated for each of the four factors and for the scale as a whole, and ranged from 0.75 to 0.85, suggesting a high level of internal consistency. Construct validity was tested through comparisons with the results of standardized measures of child functioning. Predicted relationships for factors one, two and three were statistically significant and in the expected directions. Predictions for factor four were partially supported. AMC-26 was also expected to serve as an indicator of caregiver distress. Drawing on a sample of caregivers from the larger study (n = 251) the model was found to be significant and explained 23% of the variance in caregiver depressive symptoms (R(2)  = .053, F (1, 249) = 14.06, P child function and child health complexity. Such a measure may help elucidate the relationships between child complexity and family well-being. This is an important avenue for further investigation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR): predictive validity in inpatient stroke rehabilitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Breisinger, Terry P; Skidmore, Elizabeth R; Niyonkuru, Christian; Terhorst, Lauren; Campbell, Grace B

2014-12-01

To evaluate relative accuracy of a newly developed Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR) for classifying fallers and non-fallers, compared with a health system fall risk screening tool, the Fall Harm Risk Screen. Prospective quality improvement study conducted at an inpatient stroke rehabilitation unit at a large urban university hospital. Patients admitted for inpatient stroke rehabilitation (N = 419) with imaging or clinical evidence of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, between 1 August 2009 and 31 July 2010. Not applicable. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves of both scales' classifications, based on fall risk score completed upon admission to inpatient stroke rehabilitation. A total of 68 (16%) participants fell at least once. The SAFR was significantly more accurate than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (p Fall Harm Risk Screen, area under the curve was 0.56, positive predictive value was 0.19, and negative predictive value was 0.86. Sensitivity and specificity of the SAFR (0.78 and 0.63, respectively) was higher than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (0.57 and 0.48, respectively). An evidence-derived, population-specific fall risk assessment may more accurately predict fallers than a general fall risk screen for stroke rehabilitation patients. While the SAFR improves upon the accuracy of a general assessment tool, additional refinement may be warranted. © The Author(s) 2014.

Predicting the need for institutional care shortly after admission to rehabilitation: Rasch analysis and predictive validity of the BRASS Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Panella, L; La Porta, F; Caselli, S; Marchisio, S; Tennant, A

2012-09-01

Effective discharge planning is increasingly recognised as a critical component of hospital-based Rehabilitation. The BRASS index is a risk screening tool for identification, shortly after hospital admission, of patients who are at risk of post-discharge problems. To evaluate the internal construct validity and reliability of the Blaylock Risk Assessment Screening Score (BRASS) within the rehabilitation setting. Observational prospective study. Rehabilitation ward of an Italian district hospital. One hundred and four consecutively admitted patients. Using classical psychometric methods and Rasch analysis (RA), the internal construct validity and reliability of the BRASS were examined. Also, external and predictive validity of the Rasch-modified BRASS (RMB) score were determined. Reliability of the original BRASS was low (Cronbach's alpha=0.595) and factor analyses showed that it was clearly multidimensional. A RA, based on a reduced 7-BRASS item set (RMB), satisfied model's expectations. Reliability was 0.777. The RMB scores strongly correlated with the original BRASS (rho=0.952; P28 days (RR=7.6, 95%CI=1.8-31.9). This study demonstrated that the original BRASS was multidimensional and unreliable. However, the RMB holds adequate internal construct validity and is sufficiently reliable as a predictor of discharge problems for group, but not individual use. The application of tools and methods (such as the BRASS Index) developed under the biomedical paradigm in a Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine setting may have limitations. Further research is needed to develop, within the rehabilitation setting, a valid measuring tool of risk of post-discharge problems at the individual level.

Validity of the MicroDYN Approach: Complex Problem Solving Predicts School Grades beyond Working Memory Capacity

Science.gov (United States)

Schweizer, Fabian; Wustenberg, Sascha; Greiff, Samuel

2013-01-01

This study examines the validity of the complex problem solving (CPS) test MicroDYN by investigating a) the relation between its dimensions--rule identification (exploration strategy), rule knowledge (acquired knowledge), rule application (control performance)--and working memory capacity (WMC), and b) whether CPS predicts school grades in…

A Study of the Predictive Validity of the Children's Depression Inventory for Major Depression Disorder in Puerto Rican Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera-Medina, Carmen L.; Bernal, Guillermo; Rossello, Jeannette; Cumba-Aviles, Eduardo

2010-01-01

This study aims to evaluate the predictive validity of the Children's Depression Inventory items for major depression disorder (MDD) in an outpatient clinic sample of Puerto Rican adolescents. The sample consisted of 130 adolescents, 13 to 18 years old. The five most frequent symptoms of the Children's Depression Inventory that best predict the…

A Critical Analysis and Validation of the Accuracy of Wave Overtopping Prediction Formulae for OWECs

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David Gallach-Sánchez

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The development of wave energy devices is growing in recent years. One type of device is the overtopping wave energy converter (OWEC, for which the knowledge of the wave overtopping rates is a basic and crucial aspect in their design. In particular, the most interesting range to study is for OWECs with steep slopes to vertical walls, and with very small freeboards and zero freeboards where the overtopping rate is maximized, and which can be generalized as steep low-crested structures. Recently, wave overtopping prediction formulae have been published for this type of structures, although their accuracy has not been fully assessed, as the overtopping data available in this range is scarce. We performed a critical analysis of the overtopping prediction formulae for steep low-crested structures and the validation of the accuracy of these formulae, based on new overtopping data for steep low-crested structures obtained at Ghent University. This paper summarizes the existing knowledge about average wave overtopping, describes the physical model tests performed, analyses the results and compares them to existing prediction formulae. The new dataset extends the wave overtopping data towards vertical walls and zero freeboard structures. In general, the new dataset validated the more recent overtopping formulae focused on steep slopes with small freeboards, although the formulae are underpredicting the average overtopping rates for very small and zero relative crest freeboards.

Reliability and validity of the parent efficacy for child healthy weight behaviour (PECHWB) scale.

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Palmer, F; Davis, M C

2014-05-01

Interventions for childhood overweight and obesity that target parents as the agents of change by increasing parent self-efficacy for facilitating their child's healthy weight behaviours require a reliable and valid tool to measure parent self-efficacy before and after interventions. Nelson and Davis developed the Parent Efficacy for Child Healthy Weight Behaviour (PECHWB) scale with good preliminary evidence of reliability and validity. The aim of this research was to provide further psychometric evidence from an independent Australian sample. Data were provided by a convenience sample of 261 primary caregivers of children aged 4-17 years via an online survey. PECHWB scores were correlated with scores on other self-report measures of parenting efficacy and 2- to 4-week test-retest reliability of the PECHWB was assessed. The results of the study confirmed the four-factor structure of the PECHWB (Fat and Sugar, Sedentary Behaviours, Physical Activity, and Fruit and Vegetables) and provided strong evidence of internal consistency and test-retest reliability, as well as good evidence of convergent validity. Future research should investigate the properties of the PECHWB in a sample of parents of overweight or obese children, including measures of child weight and actual child healthy weight behaviours to provide evidence of the concurrent and predictive validity of PECHWB scores. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reliability and Validity Evidence of Multiple Balance Assessments in Athletes With a Concussion

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Murray, Nicholas; Salvatore, Anthony; Powell, Douglas; Reed-Jones, Rebecca

2014-01-01

Context: An estimated 300 000 sport-related concussion injuries occur in the United States annually. Approximately 30% of individuals with concussions experience balance disturbances. Common methods of balance assessment include the Clinical Test of Sensory Organization and Balance (CTSIB), the Sensory Organization Test (SOT), the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS), and the Romberg test; however, the National Collegiate Athletic Association recommended the Wii Fit as an alternative measure of balance in athletes with a concussion. A central concern regarding the implementation of the Wii Fit is whether it is reliable and valid for measuring balance disturbance in athletes with concussion. Objective: To examine the reliability and validity evidence for the CTSIB, SOT, BESS, Romberg test, and Wii Fit for detecting balance disturbance in athletes with a concussion. Data Sources: Literature considered for review included publications with reliability and validity data for the assessments of balance (CTSIB, SOT, BESS, Romberg test, and Wii Fit) from PubMed, PsycINFO, and CINAHL. Data Extraction: We identified 63 relevant articles for consideration in the review. Of the 63 articles, 28 were considered appropriate for inclusion and 35 were excluded. Data Synthesis: No current reliability or validity information supports the use of the CTSIB, SOT, Romberg test, or Wii Fit for balance assessment in athletes with a concussion. The BESS demonstrated moderate to high reliability (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.87) and low to moderate validity (sensitivity = 34%, specificity = 87%). However, the Romberg test and Wii Fit have been shown to be reliable tools in the assessment of balance in Parkinson patients. Conclusions: The BESS can evaluate balance problems after a concussion. However, it lacks the ability to detect balance problems after the third day of recovery. Further investigation is needed to establish the use of the CTSIB, SOT, Romberg test, and Wii Fit for

Reliability and validity evidence of multiple balance assessments in athletes with a concussion.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Nicholas; Salvatore, Anthony; Powell, Douglas; Reed-Jones, Rebecca

2014-01-01

An estimated 300 000 sport-related concussion injuries occur in the United States annually. Approximately 30% of individuals with concussions experience balance disturbances. Common methods of balance assessment include the Clinical Test of Sensory Organization and Balance (CTSIB), the Sensory Organization Test (SOT), the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS), and the Romberg test; however, the National Collegiate Athletic Association recommended the Wii Fit as an alternative measure of balance in athletes with a concussion. A central concern regarding the implementation of the Wii Fit is whether it is reliable and valid for measuring balance disturbance in athletes with concussion. To examine the reliability and validity evidence for the CTSIB, SOT, BESS, Romberg test, and Wii Fit for detecting balance disturbance in athletes with a concussion. Literature considered for review included publications with reliability and validity data for the assessments of balance (CTSIB, SOT, BESS, Romberg test, and Wii Fit) from PubMed, PsycINFO, and CINAHL. We identified 63 relevant articles for consideration in the review. Of the 63 articles, 28 were considered appropriate for inclusion and 35 were excluded. No current reliability or validity information supports the use of the CTSIB, SOT, Romberg test, or Wii Fit for balance assessment in athletes with a concussion. The BESS demonstrated moderate to high reliability (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.87) and low to moderate validity (sensitivity = 34%, specificity = 87%). However, the Romberg test and Wii Fit have been shown to be reliable tools in the assessment of balance in Parkinson patients. The BESS can evaluate balance problems after a concussion. However, it lacks the ability to detect balance problems after the third day of recovery. Further investigation is needed to establish the use of the CTSIB, SOT, Romberg test, and Wii Fit for assessing balance in athletes with concussions.

Real external predictivity of QSAR models: how to evaluate it? Comparison of different validation criteria and proposal of using the concordance correlation coefficient.

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Chirico, Nicola; Gramatica, Paola

2011-09-26

The main utility of QSAR models is their ability to predict activities/properties for new chemicals, and this external prediction ability is evaluated by means of various validation criteria. As a measure for such evaluation the OECD guidelines have proposed the predictive squared correlation coefficient Q(2)(F1) (Shi et al.). However, other validation criteria have been proposed by other authors: the Golbraikh-Tropsha method, r(2)(m) (Roy), Q(2)(F2) (Schüürmann et al.), Q(2)(F3) (Consonni et al.). In QSAR studies these measures are usually in accordance, though this is not always the case, thus doubts can arise when contradictory results are obtained. It is likely that none of the aforementioned criteria is the best in every situation, so a comparative study using simulated data sets is proposed here, using threshold values suggested by the proponents or those widely used in QSAR modeling. In addition, a different and simple external validation measure, the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), is proposed and compared with other criteria. Huge data sets were used to study the general behavior of validation measures, and the concordance correlation coefficient was shown to be the most restrictive. On using simulated data sets of a more realistic size, it was found that CCC was broadly in agreement, about 96% of the time, with other validation measures in accepting models as predictive, and in almost all the examples it was the most precautionary. The proposed concordance correlation coefficient also works well on real data sets, where it seems to be more stable, and helps in making decisions when the validation measures are in conflict. Since it is conceptually simple, and given its stability and restrictiveness, we propose the concordance correlation coefficient as a complementary, or alternative, more prudent measure of a QSAR model to be externally predictive.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Functional Outcome After Stroke Rehabilitation: The Maugeri Model.

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Scrutinio, Domenico; Lanzillo, Bernardo; Guida, Pietro; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Monitillo, Vincenzo; Pusineri, Monica; Formica, Roberto; Russo, Giovanna; Guarnaschelli, Caterina; Ferretti, Chiara; Calabrese, Gianluigi

2017-12-01

Prediction of outcome after stroke rehabilitation may help clinicians in decision-making and planning rehabilitation care. We developed and validated a predictive tool to estimate the probability of achieving improvement in physical functioning (model 1) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (model 2) after stroke rehabilitation. The models were derived from 717 patients admitted for stroke rehabilitation. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to build each model. Then, each model was prospectively validated in 875 patients. Model 1 included age, time from stroke occurrence to rehabilitation admission, admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure scores, and neglect. Model 2 included age, male gender, time since stroke onset, and admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure score. Both models demonstrated excellent discrimination. In the derivation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.883 (95% confidence intervals, 0.858-0.910) for model 1 and 0.913 (95% confidence intervals, 0.884-0.942) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 4.12 ( P =0.249) and 1.20 ( P =0.754), respectively. In the validation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.866 (95% confidence intervals, 0.840-0.892) for model 1 and 0.850 (95% confidence intervals, 0.815-0.885) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 8.86 ( P =0.115) and 34.50 ( P =0.001), respectively. Both improvement in physical functioning (hazard ratios, 0.43; 0.25-0.71; P =0.001) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (hazard ratios, 0.32; 0.14-0.68; P =0.004) were independently associated with improved 4-year survival. A calculator is freely available for download at https://goo.gl/fEAp81. This study provides researchers and clinicians with an easy-to-use, accurate, and validated predictive tool for potential application in rehabilitation research and stroke management. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Ontology-based validation and identification of regulatory phenotypes

KAUST Repository

Kulmanov, Maxat

2018-01-31

Motivation: Function annotations of gene products, and phenotype annotations of genotypes, provide valuable information about molecular mechanisms that can be utilized by computational methods to identify functional and phenotypic relatedness, improve our understanding of disease and pathobiology, and lead to discovery of drug targets. Identifying functions and phenotypes commonly requires experiments which are time-consuming and expensive to carry out; creating the annotations additionally requires a curator to make an assertion based on reported evidence. Support to validate the mutual consistency of functional and phenotype annotations as well as a computational method to predict phenotypes from function annotations, would greatly improve the utility of function annotations Results: We developed a novel ontology-based method to validate the mutual consistency of function and phenotype annotations. We apply our method to mouse and human annotations, and identify several inconsistencies that can be resolved to improve overall annotation quality. Our method can also be applied to the rule-based prediction of phenotypes from functions. We show that the predicted phenotypes can be utilized for identification of protein-protein interactions and gene-disease associations. Based on experimental functional annotations, we predict phenotypes for 1,986 genes in mouse and 7,301 genes in human for which no experimental phenotypes have yet been determined.

Ontology-based validation and identification of regulatory phenotypes

KAUST Repository

Kulmanov, Maxat; Schofield, Paul N; Gkoutos, Georgios V; Hoehndorf, Robert

2018-01-01

Motivation: Function annotations of gene products, and phenotype annotations of genotypes, provide valuable information about molecular mechanisms that can be utilized by computational methods to identify functional and phenotypic relatedness, improve our understanding of disease and pathobiology, and lead to discovery of drug targets. Identifying functions and phenotypes commonly requires experiments which are time-consuming and expensive to carry out; creating the annotations additionally requires a curator to make an assertion based on reported evidence. Support to validate the mutual consistency of functional and phenotype annotations as well as a computational method to predict phenotypes from function annotations, would greatly improve the utility of function annotations Results: We developed a novel ontology-based method to validate the mutual consistency of function and phenotype annotations. We apply our method to mouse and human annotations, and identify several inconsistencies that can be resolved to improve overall annotation quality. Our method can also be applied to the rule-based prediction of phenotypes from functions. We show that the predicted phenotypes can be utilized for identification of protein-protein interactions and gene-disease associations. Based on experimental functional annotations, we predict phenotypes for 1,986 genes in mouse and 7,301 genes in human for which no experimental phenotypes have yet been determined.

Using deuterated PAH amendments to validate chemical extraction methods to predict PAH bioavailability in soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez-Eyles, Jose L.; Collins, Chris D.; Hodson, Mark E.

2011-01-01

Validating chemical methods to predict bioavailable fractions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by comparison with accumulation bioassays is problematic. Concentrations accumulated in soil organisms not only depend on the bioavailable fraction but also on contaminant properties. A historically contaminated soil was freshly spiked with deuterated PAHs (dPAHs). dPAHs have a similar fate to their respective undeuterated analogues, so chemical methods that give good indications of bioavailability should extract the fresh more readily available dPAHs and historic more recalcitrant PAHs in similar proportions to those in which they are accumulated in the tissues of test organisms. Cyclodextrin and butanol extractions predicted the bioavailable fraction for earthworms (Eisenia fetida) and plants (Lolium multiflorum) better than the exhaustive extraction. The PAHs accumulated by earthworms had a larger dPAH:PAH ratio than that predicted by chemical methods. The isotope ratio method described here provides an effective way of evaluating other chemical methods to predict bioavailability. - Research highlights: → Isotope ratios can be used to evaluate chemical methods to predict bioavailability. → Chemical methods predicted bioavailability better than exhaustive extractions. → Bioavailability to earthworms was still far from that predicted by chemical methods. - A novel method using isotope ratios to assess the ability of chemical methods to predict PAH bioavailability to soil biota.

Using deuterated PAH amendments to validate chemical extraction methods to predict PAH bioavailability in soils

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomez-Eyles, Jose L., E-mail: j.l.gomezeyles@reading.ac.uk [University of Reading, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, Soil Research Centre, Reading, RG6 6DW Berkshire (United Kingdom); Collins, Chris D.; Hodson, Mark E. [University of Reading, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, Soil Research Centre, Reading, RG6 6DW Berkshire (United Kingdom)

2011-04-15

Validating chemical methods to predict bioavailable fractions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by comparison with accumulation bioassays is problematic. Concentrations accumulated in soil organisms not only depend on the bioavailable fraction but also on contaminant properties. A historically contaminated soil was freshly spiked with deuterated PAHs (dPAHs). dPAHs have a similar fate to their respective undeuterated analogues, so chemical methods that give good indications of bioavailability should extract the fresh more readily available dPAHs and historic more recalcitrant PAHs in similar proportions to those in which they are accumulated in the tissues of test organisms. Cyclodextrin and butanol extractions predicted the bioavailable fraction for earthworms (Eisenia fetida) and plants (Lolium multiflorum) better than the exhaustive extraction. The PAHs accumulated by earthworms had a larger dPAH:PAH ratio than that predicted by chemical methods. The isotope ratio method described here provides an effective way of evaluating other chemical methods to predict bioavailability. - Research highlights: > Isotope ratios can be used to evaluate chemical methods to predict bioavailability. > Chemical methods predicted bioavailability better than exhaustive extractions. > Bioavailability to earthworms was still far from that predicted by chemical methods. - A novel method using isotope ratios to assess the ability of chemical methods to predict PAH bioavailability to soil biota.

Zulliger e habilidade social: evidências de validade no contexto empresarial Zulliger and social skills: validity evidences in business context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jucelaine Bier Di Domenico Grazziotin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available O objetivo deste estudo foi verificar evidências de validade do Zulliger no Sistema Compreensivo ZSC, focalizando a variável relacionamento, em correlação ao Inventário de Habilidades Sociais IHS. Participaram 19 sujeitos, entre 18 e 43 anos, de uma loja de supermercado. Nos indicadores, destacam-se as correlações das variáveis GHR, H, GPHR, Sum H do ZSC com os fatores GIHS, F3 e F1 do IHS, e variáveis AG, PHR, Sum T com os fatores GIHS e F5. Os resultados contribuíram para asseverar a validade do Zulliger no âmbito empresarial, e comprovaram a presença de um bom relacionamento interpessoal entre os profissionais que trabalham no atendimento ao público, confirmando as expectativas do estudo.The aim of this study was to verify the validity evidence of Zulliger Comprehensive System ZSC focusing the variable `relationship' in correlation to the Social Skills Inventory. Nineteen supermarket workers, aged between 18 and 43 years old, participated in the study. The indicators include the correlations of variables GHR, H, GPHR; Sum H of ZSC with the factors GIHS, F3 and F1 of HIS; and variables AG, PHR, Sum T with the factors GIHS and F5.The results contributed to certify the validity of Zulliger in the business field and prove the presence of good interpersonal relationships among professionals who work with the public, confirming the assumptions of the study.

Validation of an Acoustic Impedance Prediction Model for Skewed Resonators

Science.gov (United States)

Howerton, Brian M.; Parrott, Tony L.

2009-01-01

An impedance prediction model was validated experimentally to determine the composite impedance of a series of high-aspect ratio slot resonators incorporating channel skew and sharp bends. Such structures are useful for packaging acoustic liners into constrained spaces for turbofan noise control applications. A formulation of the Zwikker-Kosten Transmission Line (ZKTL) model, incorporating the Richards correction for rectangular channels, is used to calculate the composite normalized impedance of a series of six multi-slot resonator arrays with constant channel length. Experimentally, acoustic data was acquired in the NASA Langley Normal Incidence Tube over the frequency range of 500 to 3500 Hz at 120 and 140 dB OASPL. Normalized impedance was reduced using the Two-Microphone Method for the various combinations of channel skew and sharp 90o and 180o bends. Results show that the presence of skew and/or sharp bends does not significantly alter the impedance of a slot resonator as compared to a straight resonator of the same total channel length. ZKTL predicts the impedance of such resonators very well over the frequency range of interest. The model can be used to design arrays of slot resonators that can be packaged into complex geometries heretofore unsuitable for effective acoustic treatment.

Construction, internal validation and implementation in a mobile application of a scoring system to predict nonadherence to proton pump inhibitors

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Emma Mares-García

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Background Other studies have assessed nonadherence to proton pump inhibitors (PPIs, but none has developed a screening test for its detection. Objectives To construct and internally validate a predictive model for nonadherence to PPIs. Methods This prospective observational study with a one-month follow-up was carried out in 2013 in Spain, and included 302 patients with a prescription for PPIs. The primary variable was nonadherence to PPIs (pill count. Secondary variables were gender, age, antidepressants, type of PPI, non-guideline-recommended prescription (NGRP of PPIs, and total number of drugs. With the secondary variables, a binary logistic regression model to predict nonadherence was constructed and adapted to a points system. The ROC curve, with its area (AUC, was calculated and the optimal cut-off point was established. The points system was internally validated through 1,000 bootstrap samples and implemented in a mobile application (Android. Results The points system had three prognostic variables: total number of drugs, NGRP of PPIs, and antidepressants. The AUC was 0.87 (95% CI [0.83–0.91], p < 0.001. The test yielded a sensitivity of 0.80 (95% CI [0.70–0.87] and a specificity of 0.82 (95% CI [0.76–0.87]. The three parameters were very similar in the bootstrap validation. Conclusions A points system to predict nonadherence to PPIs has been constructed, internally validated and implemented in a mobile application. Provided similar results are obtained in external validation studies, we will have a screening tool to detect nonadherence to PPIs.

A genome-wide gene function prediction resource for Drosophila melanogaster.

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Han Yan

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Predicting gene functions by integrating large-scale biological data remains a challenge for systems biology. Here we present a resource for Drosophila melanogaster gene function predictions. We trained function-specific classifiers to optimize the influence of different biological datasets for each functional category. Our model predicted GO terms and KEGG pathway memberships for Drosophila melanogaster genes with high accuracy, as affirmed by cross-validation, supporting literature evidence, and large-scale RNAi screens. The resulting resource of prioritized associations between Drosophila genes and their potential functions offers a guide for experimental investigations.

[Reliability and validity of the Braden Scale for predicting pressure sore risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Boes, C

2000-12-01

For more accurate and objective pressure sore risk assessment various risk assessment tools were developed mainly in the USA and Great Britain. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk is one such example. By means of a literature analysis of German and English texts referring to the Braden Scale the scientific control criteria reliability and validity will be traced and consequences for application of the scale in Germany will be demonstrated. Analysis of 4 reliability studies shows an exclusive focus on interrater reliability. Further, even though examination of 19 validity studies occurs in many different settings, such examination is limited to the criteria sensitivity and specificity (accuracy). The range of sensitivity and specificity level is 35-100%. The recommended cut off points rank in the field of 10 to 19 points. The studies prove to be not comparable with each other. Furthermore, distortions in these studies can be found which affect accuracy of the scale. The results of the here presented analysis show an insufficient proof for reliability and validity in the American studies. In Germany, the Braden scale has not yet been tested under scientific criteria. Such testing is needed before using the scale in different German settings. During the course of such testing, construction and study procedures of the American studies can be used as a basis as can the problems be identified in the analysis presented below.

Development and validation of the coping with terror scale.

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Stein, Nathan R; Schorr, Yonit; Litz, Brett T; King, Lynda A; King, Daniel W; Solomon, Zahava; Horesh, Danny

2013-10-01

Terrorism creates lingering anxiety about future attacks. In prior terror research, the conceptualization and measurement of coping behaviors were constrained by the use of existing coping scales that index reactions to daily hassles and demands. The authors created and validated the Coping with Terror Scale to fill the measurement gap. The authors emphasized content validity, leveraging the knowledge of terror experts and groups of Israelis. A multistep approach involved construct definition and item generation, trimming and refining the measure, exploring the factor structure underlying item responses, and garnering evidence for reliability and validity. The final scale comprised six factors that were generally consistent with the authors' original construct specifications. Scores on items linked to these factors demonstrate good reliability and validity. Future studies using the Coping with Terror Scale with other populations facing terrorist threats are needed to test its ability to predict resilience, functional impairment, and psychological distress.

Validity and reliability testing of the Prenatal Psychosocial Profile.

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, M A; Campbell, R A; Christian, M

1994-04-01

Two studies of low-income pregnant women (N = 179) were done to examine the validity and reliability of the Prenatal Psychosocial Profile (PPP). The PPP, a composite of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, the Support Behaviors Inventory, and a newly developed measure of stress, is a brief, comprehensive clinical assessment of psychosocial risk during pregnancy. Construct validity of the stress scale was supported by theoretically predicted negative correlations with self-esteem, partner support, and support from others (N = 91). Convergent validity of the stress scale was demonstrated by a correlation of .71 with the Difficult Life Circumstances Scale. Adequate levels of internal consistency were found. Interrelationships between the four subscales were consistent with the underlying conceptualization, and there was beginning evidence of the factorial independence of the subscales.

Validation of the Spanish Version of the Mammography-Specific Self-Efficacy Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Jerome-D'Emilia, Bonnie; Suplee, Patricia; Akincigil, Ayse

2015-05-01

To consider psychometric estimates of the validity and reliability of the Spanish translation of a mammography-specific self-efficacy scale. A cross-sectional study. Three primarily Hispanic churches and a Hispanic community center in a low-income urban area of New Jersey. 153 low-income Hispanic women aged 40-85 years. The translated scale was administered to participants during a six-month period. Internal consistency, reliability, and construct and predictive validity were assessed. Demographic variables included income and insurance status. Outcome variables included total mammography-specific self-efficacy and having had a mammogram within the past two years. Preliminary evidence of reliability and validity were found, and predictive validity was demonstrated. The health needs of specific populations can be addressed only when research instruments have been appropriately validated and all relevant factors are considered. Diverse groups of low-income women face similar challenges and barriers in their efforts to get screened. Nurses are in an ideal position to help women with preventive care decision making (e.g., screening for breast cancer). Understanding how a woman's level of self-efficacy affects her decision making should be considered when counseling a client.

A Multivariate Model for Prediction of Obstructive Coronary Disease in Patients with Acute Chest Pain: Development and Validation

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Luis Cláudio Lemos Correia

Full Text Available Abstract Background: Currently, there is no validated multivariate model to predict probability of obstructive coronary disease in patients with acute chest pain. Objective: To develop and validate a multivariate model to predict coronary artery disease (CAD based on variables assessed at admission to the coronary care unit (CCU due to acute chest pain. Methods: A total of 470 patients were studied, 370 utilized as the derivation sample and the subsequent 100 patients as the validation sample. As the reference standard, angiography was required to rule in CAD (stenosis ≥ 70%, while either angiography or a negative noninvasive test could be used to rule it out. As predictors, 13 baseline variables related to medical history, 14 characteristics of chest discomfort, and eight variables from physical examination or laboratory tests were tested. Results: The prevalence of CAD was 48%. By logistic regression, six variables remained independent predictors of CAD: age, male gender, relief with nitrate, signs of heart failure, positive electrocardiogram, and troponin. The area under the curve (AUC of this final model was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 0.75 - 0.84 in the derivation sample and 0.86 (95%CI = 0.79 - 0.93 in the validation sample. Hosmer-Lemeshow's test indicated good calibration in both samples (p = 0.98 and p = 0.23, respectively. Compared with a basic model containing electrocardiogram and troponin, the full model provided an AUC increment of 0.07 in both derivation (p = 0.0002 and validation (p = 0.039 samples. Integrated discrimination improvement was 0.09 in both derivation (p < 0.001 and validation (p < 0.0015 samples. Conclusion: A multivariate model was derived and validated as an accurate tool for estimating the pretest probability of CAD in patients with acute chest pain.

A Parsimonious Instrument for Predicting Students' Intent to Pursue a Sales Career: Scale Development and Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Peltier, James W.; Cummins, Shannon; Pomirleanu, Nadia; Cross, James; Simon, Rob

2014-01-01

Students' desire and intention to pursue a career in sales continue to lag behind industry demand for sales professionals. This article develops and validates a reliable and parsimonious scale for measuring and predicting student intention to pursue a selling career. The instrument advances previous scales in three ways. The instrument is…

Validating computational predictions of night-time ventilation in Stanford's Y2E2 building

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chen; Lamberti, Giacomo; Gorle, Catherine

2017-11-01

Natural ventilation can significantly reduce building energy consumption, but robust design is a challenging task. We previously presented predictions of natural ventilation performance in Stanford's Y2E2 building using two models with different levels of fidelity, embedded in an uncertainty quantification framework to identify the dominant uncertain parameters and predict quantified confidence intervals. The results showed a slightly high cooling rate for the volume-averaged temperature, and the initial thermal mass temperature and window discharge coefficients were found to have an important influence on the results. To further investigate the potential role of these parameters on the observed discrepancies, the current study is performing additional measurements in the Y2E2 building. Wall temperatures are recorded throughout the nightflush using thermocouples; flow rates through windows are measured using hotwires; and spatial variability in the air temperature is explored. The measured wall temperatures are found the be within the range of our model assumptions, and the measured velocities agree reasonably well with our CFD predications. Considerable local variations in the indoor air temperature have been recorded, largely explaining the discrepancies in our earlier validation study. Future work will therefore focus on a local validation of the CFD results with the measurements. Center for Integrated Facility Engineering (CIFE).

Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2010-09-30

We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields.

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Weller, Daniel; Shiwakoti, Suvash; Bergholz, Peter; Grohn, Yrjo; Wiedmann, Martin; Strawn, Laura K

2016-02-01

Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS).

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Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

2012-10-01

Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to criminal justice system involvement, self-report measures of aggression, impulsivity, and lack of empathy. Additionally, the CCS was associated with violent criminal history, antisocial personality, and clinicians' ratings of risk for future violence and psychopathy (PCL:SV). Furthermore, criminogenic thinking upon incarceration predicted subsequent official reports of inmate misconduct during incarceration. CCS scores varied somewhat by gender and race. Research and applied uses of CCS are discussed.

Validation and Refinement of Prediction Models to Estimate Exercise Capacity in Cancer Survivors Using the Steep Ramp Test.

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Stuiver, Martijn M; Kampshoff, Caroline S; Persoon, Saskia; Groen, Wim; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai J M; Brug, Johannes; Nollet, Frans; Kersten, Marie-José; Schep, Goof; Buffart, Laurien M

2017-11-01

To further test the validity and clinical usefulness of the steep ramp test (SRT) in estimating exercise tolerance in cancer survivors by external validation and extension of previously published prediction models for peak oxygen consumption (Vo 2peak ) and peak power output (W peak ). Cross-sectional study. Multicenter. Cancer survivors (N=283) in 2 randomized controlled exercise trials. Not applicable. Prediction model accuracy was assessed by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and limits of agreement (LOA). Multiple linear regression was used for model extension. Clinical performance was judged by the percentage of accurate endurance exercise prescriptions. ICCs of SRT-predicted Vo 2peak and W peak with these values as obtained by the cardiopulmonary exercise test were .61 and .73, respectively, using the previously published prediction models. 95% LOA were ±705mL/min with a bias of 190mL/min for Vo 2peak and ±59W with a bias of 5W for W peak . Modest improvements were obtained by adding body weight and sex to the regression equation for the prediction of Vo 2peak (ICC, .73; 95% LOA, ±608mL/min) and by adding age, height, and sex for the prediction of W peak (ICC, .81; 95% LOA, ±48W). Accuracy of endurance exercise prescription improved from 57% accurate prescriptions to 68% accurate prescriptions with the new prediction model for W peak . Predictions of Vo 2peak and W peak based on the SRT are adequate at the group level, but insufficiently accurate in individual patients. The multivariable prediction model for W peak can be used cautiously (eg, supplemented with a Borg score) to aid endurance exercise prescription. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validating Machine Learning Algorithms for Twitter Data Against Established Measures of Suicidality.

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Braithwaite, Scott R; Giraud-Carrier, Christophe; West, Josh; Barnes, Michael D; Hanson, Carl Lee

2016-05-16

One of the leading causes of death in the United States (US) is suicide and new methods of assessment are needed to track its risk in real time. Our objective is to validate the use of machine learning algorithms for Twitter data against empirically validated measures of suicidality in the US population. Using a machine learning algorithm, the Twitter feeds of 135 Mechanical Turk (MTurk) participants were compared with validated, self-report measures of suicide risk. Our findings show that people who are at high suicidal risk can be easily differentiated from those who are not by machine learning algorithms, which accurately identify the clinically significant suicidal rate in 92% of cases (sensitivity: 53%, specificity: 97%, positive predictive value: 75%, negative predictive value: 93%). Machine learning algorithms are efficient in differentiating people who are at a suicidal risk from those who are not. Evidence for suicidality can be measured in nonclinical populations using social media data.

Genome-Wide Association Studies and Comparison of Models and Cross-Validation Strategies for Genomic Prediction of Quality Traits in Advanced Winter Wheat Breeding Lines

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Peter S. Kristensen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of the this study was to identify SNP markers associated with five important wheat quality traits (grain protein content, Zeleny sedimentation, test weight, thousand-kernel weight, and falling number, and to investigate the predictive abilities of GBLUP and Bayesian Power Lasso models for genomic prediction of these traits. In total, 635 winter wheat lines from two breeding cycles in the Danish plant breeding company Nordic Seed A/S were phenotyped for the quality traits and genotyped for 10,802 SNPs. GWAS were performed using single marker regression and Bayesian Power Lasso models. SNPs with large effects on Zeleny sedimentation were found on chromosome 1B, 1D, and 5D. However, GWAS failed to identify single SNPs with significant effects on the other traits, indicating that these traits were controlled by many QTL with small effects. The predictive abilities of the models for genomic prediction were studied using different cross-validation strategies. Leave-One-Out cross-validations resulted in correlations between observed phenotypes corrected for fixed effects and genomic estimated breeding values of 0.50 for grain protein content, 0.66 for thousand-kernel weight, 0.70 for falling number, 0.71 for test weight, and 0.79 for Zeleny sedimentation. Alternative cross-validations showed that the genetic relationship between lines in training and validation sets had a bigger impact on predictive abilities than the number of lines included in the training set. Using Bayesian Power Lasso instead of GBLUP models, gave similar or slightly higher predictive abilities. Genomic prediction based on all SNPs was more effective than prediction based on few associated SNPs.

Prediction of new brain metastases after radiosurgery: validation and analysis of performance of a multi-institutional nomogram.

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Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N; Attia, Albert; Braunstein, Steve E; Ahluwalia, Manmeet S; Hepel, Jaroslaw; Chung, Caroline; Contessa, Joseph; McTyre, Emory; Peiffer, Ann M; Lucas, John T; Isom, Scott; Pajewski, Nicholas M; Kotecha, Rupesh; Stavas, Mark J; Page, Brandi R; Kleinberg, Lawrence; Shen, Colette; Taylor, Robert B; Onyeuku, Nasarachi E; Hyde, Andrew T; Gorovets, Daniel; Chao, Samuel T; Corso, Christopher; Ruiz, Jimmy; Watabe, Kounosuke; Tatter, Stephen B; Zadeh, Gelareh; Chiang, Veronica L S; Fiveash, John B; Chan, Michael D

2017-11-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) for brain metastases can avoid WBRT toxicities, but with risk of subsequent distant brain failure (DBF). Sole use of number of metastases to triage patients may be an unrefined method. Data on 1354 patients treated with SRS monotherapy from 2000 to 2013 for new brain metastases was collected across eight academic centers. The cohort was divided into training and validation datasets and a prognostic model was developed for time to DBF. We then evaluated the discrimination and calibration of the model within the validation dataset, and confirmed its performance with an independent contemporary cohort. Number of metastases (≥8, HR 3.53 p = 0.0001), minimum margin dose (HR 1.07 p = 0.0033), and melanoma histology (HR 1.45, p = 0.0187) were associated with DBF. A prognostic index derived from the training dataset exhibited ability to discriminate patients' DBF risk within the validation dataset (c-index = 0.631) and Heller's explained relative risk (HERR) = 0.173 (SE = 0.048). Absolute number of metastases was evaluated for its ability to predict DBF in the derivation and validation datasets, and was inferior to the nomogram. A nomogram high-risk threshold yielding a 2.1-fold increased need for early WBRT was identified. Nomogram values also correlated to number of brain metastases at time of failure (r = 0.38, p < 0.0001). We present a multi-institutionally validated prognostic model and nomogram to predict risk of DBF and guide risk-stratification of patients who are appropriate candidates for radiosurgery versus upfront WBRT.

Further Validation of the IDAS: Evidence of Convergent, Discriminant, Criterion, and Incremental Validity

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Watson, David; O'Hara, Michael W.; Chmielewski, Michael; McDade-Montez, Elizabeth A.; Koffel, Erin; Naragon, Kristin; Stuart, Scott

2008-01-01

The authors explicated the validity of the Inventory of Depression and Anxiety Symptoms (IDAS; D. Watson et al., 2007) in 2 samples (306 college students and 605 psychiatric patients). The IDAS scales showed strong convergent validity in relation to parallel interview-based scores on the Clinician Rating version of the IDAS; the mean convergent…

Multilevel Assessment of the Predictive Validity of Teacher Made Tests in the Zimbabwean Primary Education Sector

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Machingambi, Zadzisai

2017-01-01

The principal focus of this study was to undertake a multilevel assessment of the predictive validity of teacher made tests in the Zimbabwean primary education sector. A correlational research design was adopted for the study, mainly to allow for statistical treatment of data and subsequent classical hypotheses testing using the spearman's rho.…

Validity evidence for the Security Scale as a measure of perceived attachment security in adolescence.