Machine learning methods for metabolic pathway prediction

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Background A key challenge in systems biology is the reconstruction of an organism's metabolic network from its genome sequence. One strategy for addressing this problem is to predict which metabolic pathways, from a reference database of known pathways, are present in the organism, based on the annotated genome of the organism. Results To quantitatively validate methods for pathway prediction, we developed a large "gold standard" dataset of 5,610 pathway instances known to be present or absent in curated metabolic pathway databases for six organisms. We defined a collection of 123 pathway features, whose information content we evaluated with respect to the gold standard. Feature data were used as input to an extensive collection of machine learning (ML) methods, including naïve Bayes, decision trees, and logistic regression, together with feature selection and ensemble methods. We compared the ML methods to the previous PathoLogic algorithm for pathway prediction using the gold standard dataset. We found that ML-based prediction methods can match the performance of the PathoLogic algorithm. PathoLogic achieved an accuracy of 91% and an F-measure of 0.786. The ML-based prediction methods achieved accuracy as high as 91.2% and F-measure as high as 0.787. The ML-based methods output a probability for each predicted pathway, whereas PathoLogic does not, which provides more information to the user and facilitates filtering of predicted pathways. Conclusions ML methods for pathway prediction perform as well as existing methods, and have qualitative advantages in terms of extensibility, tunability, and explainability. More advanced prediction methods and/or more sophisticated input features may improve the performance of ML methods. However, pathway prediction performance appears to be limited largely by the ability to correctly match enzymes to the reactions they catalyze based on genome annotations. PMID:20064214

Efficient operation scheduling for adsorption chillers using predictive optimization-based control methods

Science.gov (United States)

Bürger, Adrian; Sawant, Parantapa; Bohlayer, Markus; Altmann-Dieses, Angelika; Braun, Marco; Diehl, Moritz

2017-10-01

Within this work, the benefits of using predictive control methods for the operation of Adsorption Cooling Machines (ACMs) are shown on a simulation study. Since the internal control decisions of series-manufactured ACMs often cannot be influenced, the work focuses on optimized scheduling of an ACM considering its internal functioning as well as forecasts for load and driving energy occurrence. For illustration, an assumed solar thermal climate system is introduced and a system model suitable for use within gradient-based optimization methods is developed. The results of a system simulation using a conventional scheme for ACM scheduling are compared to the results of a predictive, optimization-based scheduling approach for the same exemplary scenario of load and driving energy occurrence. The benefits of the latter approach are shown and future actions for application of these methods for system control are addressed.

A variable capacitance based modeling and power capability predicting method for ultracapacitor

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Liu, Chang; Wang, Yujie; Chen, Zonghai; Ling, Qiang

2018-01-01

Methods of accurate modeling and power capability predicting for ultracapacitors are of great significance in management and application of lithium-ion battery/ultracapacitor hybrid energy storage system. To overcome the simulation error coming from constant capacitance model, an improved ultracapacitor model based on variable capacitance is proposed, where the main capacitance varies with voltage according to a piecewise linear function. A novel state-of-charge calculation approach is developed accordingly. After that, a multi-constraint power capability prediction is developed for ultracapacitor, in which a Kalman-filter-based state observer is designed for tracking ultracapacitor's real-time behavior. Finally, experimental results verify the proposed methods. The accuracy of the proposed model is verified by terminal voltage simulating results under different temperatures, and the effectiveness of the designed observer is proved by various test conditions. Additionally, the power capability prediction results of different time scales and temperatures are compared, to study their effects on ultracapacitor's power capability.

The Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Method Based on Neural Network

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Zhong Xiao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The dissolved oxygen (DO is oxygen dissolved in water, which is an important factor for the aquaculture. Using BP neural network method with the combination of purelin, logsig, and tansig activation functions is proposed for the prediction of aquaculture’s dissolved oxygen. The input layer, hidden layer, and output layer are introduced in detail including the weight adjustment process. The breeding data of three ponds in actual 10 consecutive days were used for experiments; these ponds were located in Beihai, Guangxi, a traditional aquaculture base in southern China. The data of the first 7 days are used for training, and the data of the latter 3 days are used for the test. Compared with the common prediction models, curve fitting (CF, autoregression (AR, grey model (GM, and support vector machines (SVM, the experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the neural network is the highest, and all the predicted values are less than 5% of the error limit, which can meet the needs of practical applications, followed by AR, GM, SVM, and CF. The prediction model can help to improve the water quality monitoring level of aquaculture which will prevent the deterioration of water quality and the outbreak of disease.

Fatigue Life Prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete Based on the Local Stress-Strain Method

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Mulian Zheng

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Previously published studies have proposed fatigue life prediction models for dense graded asphalt pavement based on flexural fatigue test. This study focused on the fatigue life prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete (HMAC pavement using the local strain-stress method and direct tension fatigue test. First, the direct tension fatigue test at various strain levels was conducted on HMAC prism samples cut from plate specimens. Afterwards, their true stress-strain loop curves were obtained and modified to develop the strain-fatigue life equation. Then the nominal strain of HMAC course determined using finite element method was converted into local strain using the Neuber method. Finally, based on the established fatigue equation and converted local strain, a method to predict the pavement fatigue crack initiation life was proposed and the fatigue life of a typical HMAC overlay pavement which runs a risk of bottom-up cracking was predicted and validated. Results show that the proposed method was able to produce satisfactory crack initiation life.

Predictive Methods for Dense Polymer Networks: Combating Bias with Bio-Based Structures

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-16

Combating bias with bio - based structures 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Andrew J. Guenthner...unlimited. PA Clearance 16152 Integrity  Service  Excellence Predictive methods for dense polymer networks: Combating bias with bio -based...Architectural Bias • Comparison of Petroleum-Based and Bio -Based Chemical Architectures • Continuing Research on Structure-Property Relationships using

A postprocessing method in the HMC framework for predicting gene function based on biological instrumental data

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Feng, Shou; Fu, Ping; Zheng, Wenbin

2018-03-01

Predicting gene function based on biological instrumental data is a complicated and challenging hierarchical multi-label classification (HMC) problem. When using local approach methods to solve this problem, a preliminary results processing method is usually needed. This paper proposed a novel preliminary results processing method called the nodes interaction method. The nodes interaction method revises the preliminary results and guarantees that the predictions are consistent with the hierarchy constraint. This method exploits the label dependency and considers the hierarchical interaction between nodes when making decisions based on the Bayesian network in its first phase. In the second phase, this method further adjusts the results according to the hierarchy constraint. Implementing the nodes interaction method in the HMC framework also enhances the HMC performance for solving the gene function prediction problem based on the Gene Ontology (GO), the hierarchy of which is a directed acyclic graph that is more difficult to tackle. The experimental results validate the promising performance of the proposed method compared to state-of-the-art methods on eight benchmark yeast data sets annotated by the GO.

HuMiTar: A sequence-based method for prediction of human microRNA targets

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Chen Ke

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background MicroRNAs (miRs are small noncoding RNAs that bind to complementary/partially complementary sites in the 3' untranslated regions of target genes to regulate protein production of the target transcript and to induce mRNA degradation or mRNA cleavage. The ability to perform accurate, high-throughput identification of physiologically active miR targets would enable functional characterization of individual miRs. Current target prediction methods include traditional approaches that are based on specific base-pairing rules in the miR's seed region and implementation of cross-species conservation of the target site, and machine learning (ML methods that explore patterns that contrast true and false miR-mRNA duplexes. However, in the case of the traditional methods research shows that some seed region matches that are conserved are false positives and that some of the experimentally validated target sites are not conserved. Results We present HuMiTar, a computational method for identifying common targets of miRs, which is based on a scoring function that considers base-pairing for both seed and non-seed positions for human miR-mRNA duplexes. Our design shows that certain non-seed miR nucleotides, such as 14, 18, 13, 11, and 17, are characterized by a strong bias towards formation of Watson-Crick pairing. We contrasted HuMiTar with several representative competing methods on two sets of human miR targets and a set of ten glioblastoma oncogenes. Comparison with the two best performing traditional methods, PicTar and TargetScanS, and a representative ML method that considers the non-seed positions, NBmiRTar, shows that HuMiTar predictions include majority of the predictions of the other three methods. At the same time, the proposed method is also capable of finding more true positive targets as a trade-off for an increased number of predictions. Genome-wide predictions show that the proposed method is characterized by 1.99 signal

Reliability residual-life prediction method for thermal aging based on performance degradation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren Shuhong; Xue Fei; Yu Weiwei; Ti Wenxin; Liu Xiaotian

2013-01-01

The paper makes the study of the nuclear power plant main pipeline. The residual-life of the main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and Bayesian updating methods. Firstly, the thermal aging impact property degradation process of the main pipeline austenitic stainless steel has been analyzed by the accelerated thermal aging test data. Then, the thermal aging residual-life prediction model based on the impact property degradation data is built by Bayesian updating methods. Finally, these models are applied in practical situations. It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project. Also, it provides a foundation for the scientific management of aging management of the main pipeline. (authors)

A link prediction method for heterogeneous networks based on BP neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ji-chao; Zhao, Dan-ling; Ge, Bing-Feng; Yang, Ke-Wei; Chen, Ying-Wu

2018-04-01

Most real-world systems, composed of different types of objects connected via many interconnections, can be abstracted as various complex heterogeneous networks. Link prediction for heterogeneous networks is of great significance for mining missing links and reconfiguring networks according to observed information, with considerable applications in, for example, friend and location recommendations and disease-gene candidate detection. In this paper, we put forward a novel integrated framework, called MPBP (Meta-Path feature-based BP neural network model), to predict multiple types of links for heterogeneous networks. More specifically, the concept of meta-path is introduced, followed by the extraction of meta-path features for heterogeneous networks. Next, based on the extracted meta-path features, a supervised link prediction model is built with a three-layer BP neural network. Then, the solution algorithm of the proposed link prediction model is put forward to obtain predicted results by iteratively training the network. Last, numerical experiments on the dataset of examples of a gene-disease network and a combat network are conducted to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed MPBP. It shows that the MPBP with very good performance is superior to the baseline methods.

A prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion for chaotic time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhongda, Tian; Shujiang, Li; Yanhong, Wang; Yi, Sha

2017-01-01

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of chaotic time series, a prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion is proposed. The chaotic time series is decomposed and reconstructed by wavelet transform, and approximate components and detail components are obtained. According to different characteristics of each component, least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is used as predictive model for approximation components. At the same time, an improved free search algorithm is utilized for predictive model parameters optimization. Auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) is used as predictive model for detail components. The multiple prediction model predictive values are fusion by Gauss–Markov algorithm, the error variance of predicted results after fusion is less than the single model, the prediction accuracy is improved. The simulation results are compared through two typical chaotic time series include Lorenz time series and Mackey–Glass time series. The simulation results show that the prediction method in this paper has a better prediction.

A Predictive-Control-Based Over-Modulation Method for Conventional Matrix Converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Guanguan; Yang, Jian; Sun, Yao

2018-01-01

To increase the voltage transfer ratio of the matrix converter and improve the input/output current performance simultaneously, an over-modulation method based on predictive control is proposed in this paper, where the weighting factor is selected by an automatic adjusting mechanism, which is able...... to further enhance the system performance promptly. This method has advantages like the maximum voltage transfer ratio can reach 0.987 in the experiments; the total harmonic distortion of the input and output current are reduced, and the losses in the matrix converter are decreased. Moreover, the specific...

A Meta-Path-Based Prediction Method for Human miRNA-Target Association

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Jiawei Luo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs are short noncoding RNAs that play important roles in regulating gene expressing, and the perturbed miRNAs are often associated with development and tumorigenesis as they have effects on their target mRNA. Predicting potential miRNA-target associations from multiple types of genomic data is a considerable problem in the bioinformatics research. However, most of the existing methods did not fully use the experimentally validated miRNA-mRNA interactions. Here, we developed RMLM and RMLMSe to predict the relationship between miRNAs and their targets. RMLM and RMLMSe are global approaches as they can reconstruct the missing associations for all the miRNA-target simultaneously and RMLMSe demonstrates that the integration of sequence information can improve the performance of RMLM. In RMLM, we use RM measure to evaluate different relatedness between miRNA and its target based on different meta-paths; logistic regression and MLE method are employed to estimate the weight of different meta-paths. In RMLMSe, sequence information is utilized to improve the performance of RMLM. Here, we carry on fivefold cross validation and pathway enrichment analysis to prove the performance of our methods. The fivefold experiments show that our methods have higher AUC scores compared with other methods and the integration of sequence information can improve the performance of miRNA-target association prediction.

A noise level prediction method based on electro-mechanical frequency response function for capacitors.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

2013-01-01

The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective.

Online sequential condition prediction method of natural circulation systems based on EOS-ELM and phase space reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Hanying; Gao, Puzhen; Tan, Sichao; Tang, Jiguo; Yuan, Hongsheng

2017-01-01

Highlights: •An online condition prediction method for natural circulation systems in NPP was proposed based on EOS-ELM. •The proposed online prediction method was validated using experimental data. •The training speed of the proposed method is significantly fast. •The proposed method can achieve good accuracy in wide parameter range. -- Abstract: Natural circulation design is widely used in the passive safety systems of advanced nuclear power reactors. The irregular and chaotic flow oscillations are often observed in boiling natural circulation systems so it is difficult for operators to monitor and predict the condition of these systems. An online condition forecasting method for natural circulation system is proposed in this study as an assisting technique for plant operators. The proposed prediction approach was developed based on Ensemble of Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (EOS-ELM) and phase space reconstruction. Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OS-ELM) is an online sequential learning neural network algorithm and EOS-ELM is the ensemble method of it. The proposed condition prediction method can be initiated by a small chunk of monitoring data and it can be updated by newly arrived data at very fast speed during the online prediction. Simulation experiments were conducted on the data of two natural circulation loops to validate the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed predication model can successfully recognize different types of flow oscillations and accurately forecast the trend of monitored plant variables. The influence of the number of hidden nodes and neural network inputs on prediction performance was studied and the proposed model can achieve good accuracy in a wide parameter range. Moreover, the comparison results show that the proposed condition prediction method has much faster online learning speed and better prediction accuracy than conventional neural network model.

Combining sequence-based prediction methods and circular dichroism and infrared spectroscopic data to improve protein secondary structure determinations

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Lees Jonathan G

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A number of sequence-based methods exist for protein secondary structure prediction. Protein secondary structures can also be determined experimentally from circular dichroism, and infrared spectroscopic data using empirical analysis methods. It has been proposed that comparable accuracy can be obtained from sequence-based predictions as from these biophysical measurements. Here we have examined the secondary structure determination accuracies of sequence prediction methods with the empirically determined values from the spectroscopic data on datasets of proteins for which both crystal structures and spectroscopic data are available. Results In this study we show that the sequence prediction methods have accuracies nearly comparable to those of spectroscopic methods. However, we also demonstrate that combining the spectroscopic and sequences techniques produces significant overall improvements in secondary structure determinations. In addition, combining the extra information content available from synchrotron radiation circular dichroism data with sequence methods also shows improvements. Conclusion Combining sequence prediction with experimentally determined spectroscopic methods for protein secondary structure content significantly enhances the accuracy of the overall results obtained.

Esophageal cancer prediction based on qualitative features using adaptive fuzzy reasoning method

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Raed I. Hamed

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Esophageal cancer is one of the most common cancers world-wide and also the most common cause of cancer death. In this paper, we present an adaptive fuzzy reasoning algorithm for rule-based systems using fuzzy Petri nets (FPNs, where the fuzzy production rules are represented by FPN. We developed an adaptive fuzzy Petri net (AFPN reasoning algorithm as a prognostic system to predict the outcome for esophageal cancer based on the serum concentrations of C-reactive protein and albumin as a set of input variables. The system can perform fuzzy reasoning automatically to evaluate the degree of truth of the proposition representing the risk degree value with a weight value to be optimally tuned based on the observed data. In addition, the implementation process for esophageal cancer prediction is fuzzily deducted by the AFPN algorithm. Performance of the composite model is evaluated through a set of experiments. Simulations and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed algorithms. A comparison of the predictive performance of AFPN models with other methods and the analysis of the curve showed the same results with an intuitive behavior of AFPN models.

Ensemble-based prediction of RNA secondary structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Aghaeepour, Nima; Hoos, Holger H

2013-04-24

Accurate structure prediction methods play an important role for the understanding of RNA function. Energy-based, pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction is one of the most widely used and versatile approaches, and improved methods for this task have received much attention over the past five years. Despite the impressive progress that as been achieved in this area, existing evaluations of the prediction accuracy achieved by various algorithms do not provide a comprehensive, statistically sound assessment. Furthermore, while there is increasing evidence that no prediction algorithm consistently outperforms all others, no work has been done to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple approaches. In this work, we present two contributions to the area of RNA secondary structure prediction. Firstly, we use state-of-the-art, resampling-based statistical methods together with a previously published and increasingly widely used dataset of high-quality RNA structures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing RNA secondary structure prediction procedures. The results from this evaluation clarify the performance relationship between ten well-known existing energy-based pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction methods and clearly demonstrate the progress that has been achieved in recent years. Secondly, we introduce AveRNA, a generic and powerful method for combining a set of existing secondary structure prediction procedures into an ensemble-based method that achieves significantly higher prediction accuracies than obtained from any of its component procedures. Our new, ensemble-based method, AveRNA, improves the state of the art for energy-based, pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction by exploiting the complementary strengths of multiple existing prediction procedures, as demonstrated using a state-of-the-art statistical resampling approach. In addition, AveRNA allows an intuitive and effective control of the trade-off between

A predictive estimation method for carbon dioxide transport by data-driven modeling with a physically-based data model

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young; Jun, Seong-Chun; Choung, Sungwook; Yun, Seong-Taek; Oh, Junho; Kim, Hyun-Jun

2017-11-01

In this study, a data-driven method for predicting CO2 leaks and associated concentrations from geological CO2 sequestration is developed. Several candidate models are compared based on their reproducibility and predictive capability for CO2 concentration measurements from the Environment Impact Evaluation Test (EIT) site in Korea. Based on the data mining results, a one-dimensional solution of the advective-dispersive equation for steady flow (i.e., Ogata-Banks solution) is found to be most representative for the test data, and this model is adopted as the data model for the developed method. In the validation step, the method is applied to estimate future CO2 concentrations with the reference estimation by the Ogata-Banks solution, where a part of earlier data is used as the training dataset. From the analysis, it is found that the ensemble mean of multiple estimations based on the developed method shows high prediction accuracy relative to the reference estimation. In addition, the majority of the data to be predicted are included in the proposed quantile interval, which suggests adequate representation of the uncertainty by the developed method. Therefore, the incorporation of a reasonable physically-based data model enhances the prediction capability of the data-driven model. The proposed method is not confined to estimations of CO2 concentration and may be applied to various real-time monitoring data from subsurface sites to develop automated control, management or decision-making systems.

A predictive estimation method for carbon dioxide transport by data-driven modeling with a physically-based data model.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young; Jun, Seong-Chun; Choung, Sungwook; Yun, Seong-Taek; Oh, Junho; Kim, Hyun-Jun

2017-11-01

In this study, a data-driven method for predicting CO 2 leaks and associated concentrations from geological CO 2 sequestration is developed. Several candidate models are compared based on their reproducibility and predictive capability for CO 2 concentration measurements from the Environment Impact Evaluation Test (EIT) site in Korea. Based on the data mining results, a one-dimensional solution of the advective-dispersive equation for steady flow (i.e., Ogata-Banks solution) is found to be most representative for the test data, and this model is adopted as the data model for the developed method. In the validation step, the method is applied to estimate future CO 2 concentrations with the reference estimation by the Ogata-Banks solution, where a part of earlier data is used as the training dataset. From the analysis, it is found that the ensemble mean of multiple estimations based on the developed method shows high prediction accuracy relative to the reference estimation. In addition, the majority of the data to be predicted are included in the proposed quantile interval, which suggests adequate representation of the uncertainty by the developed method. Therefore, the incorporation of a reasonable physically-based data model enhances the prediction capability of the data-driven model. The proposed method is not confined to estimations of CO 2 concentration and may be applied to various real-time monitoring data from subsurface sites to develop automated control, management or decision-making systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A control method for agricultural greenhouses heating based on computational fluid dynamics and energy prediction model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Jiaoliao; Xu, Fang; Tan, Dapeng; Shen, Zheng; Zhang, Libin; Ai, Qinglin

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A novel control method for the heating greenhouse with SWSHPS is proposed. • CFD is employed to predict the priorities of FCU loops for thermal performance. • EPM is act as an on-line tool to predict the total energy demand of greenhouse. • The CFD–EPM-based method can save energy and improve control accuracy. • The energy savings potential is between 8.7% and 15.1%. - Abstract: As energy heating is one of the main production costs, many efforts have been made to reduce the energy consumption of agricultural greenhouses. Herein, a novel control method of greenhouse heating using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and energy prediction model (EPM) is proposed for energy savings and system performance. Based on the low-Reynolds number k–ε turbulence principle, a CFD model of heating greenhouse is developed, applying the discrete ordinates model for the radiative heat transfers and porous medium approach for plants considering plants sensible and latent heat exchanges. The CFD simulations have been validated, and used to analyze the greenhouse thermal performance and the priority of fan coil units (FCU) loops under the various heating conditions. According to the heating efficiency and temperature uniformity, the priorities of each FCU loop can be predicted to generate a database with priorities for control system. EPM is built up based on the thermal balance, and used to predict and optimize the energy demand of the greenhouse online. Combined with the priorities of FCU loops from CFD simulations offline, we have developed the CFD–EPM-based heating control system of greenhouse with surface water source heat pumps system (SWSHPS). Compared with conventional multi-zone independent control (CMIC) method, the energy savings potential is between 8.7% and 15.1%, and the control temperature deviation is decreased to between 0.1 °C and 0.6 °C in the investigated greenhouse. These results show the CFD–EPM-based method can improve system

The Relevance Voxel Machine (RVoxM): A Bayesian Method for Image-Based Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabuncu, Mert R.; Van Leemput, Koen

2011-01-01

This paper presents the Relevance VoxelMachine (RVoxM), a Bayesian multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) algorithm that is specifically designed for making predictions based on image data. In contrast to generic MVPA algorithms that have often been used for this purpose, the method is designed to ...

Predicting Taxi-Out Time at Congested Airports with Optimization-Based Support Vector Regression Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guan Lian

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate prediction of taxi-out time is significant precondition for improving the operationality of the departure process at an airport, as well as reducing the long taxi-out time, congestion, and excessive emission of greenhouse gases. Unfortunately, several of the traditional methods of predicting taxi-out time perform unsatisfactorily at congested airports. This paper describes and tests three of those conventional methods which include Generalized Linear Model, Softmax Regression Model, and Artificial Neural Network method and two improved Support Vector Regression (SVR approaches based on swarm intelligence algorithm optimization, which include Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO and Firefly Algorithm. In order to improve the global searching ability of Firefly Algorithm, adaptive step factor and Lévy flight are implemented simultaneously when updating the location function. Six factors are analysed, of which delay is identified as one significant factor in congested airports. Through a series of specific dynamic analyses, a case study of Beijing International Airport (PEK is tested with historical data. The performance measures show that the proposed two SVR approaches, especially the Improved Firefly Algorithm (IFA optimization-based SVR method, not only perform as the best modelling measures and accuracy rate compared with the representative forecast models, but also can achieve a better predictive performance when dealing with abnormal taxi-out time states.

A Bipartite Network-based Method for Prediction of Long Non-coding RNA–protein Interactions

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Mengqu Ge

2016-02-01

Full Text Available As one large class of non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs, long ncRNAs (lncRNAs have gained considerable attention in recent years. Mutations and dysfunction of lncRNAs have been implicated in human disorders. Many lncRNAs exert their effects through interactions with the corresponding RNA-binding proteins. Several computational approaches have been developed, but only few are able to perform the prediction of these interactions from a network-based point of view. Here, we introduce a computational method named lncRNA–protein bipartite network inference (LPBNI. LPBNI aims to identify potential lncRNA–interacting proteins, by making full use of the known lncRNA–protein interactions. Leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV test shows that LPBNI significantly outperforms other network-based methods, including random walk (RWR and protein-based collaborative filtering (ProCF. Furthermore, a case study was performed to demonstrate the performance of LPBNI using real data in predicting potential lncRNA–interacting proteins.

In-depth performance evaluation of PFP and ESG sequence-based function prediction methods in CAFA 2011 experiment

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Chitale Meghana

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many Automatic Function Prediction (AFP methods were developed to cope with an increasing growth of the number of gene sequences that are available from high throughput sequencing experiments. To support the development of AFP methods, it is essential to have community wide experiments for evaluating performance of existing AFP methods. Critical Assessment of Function Annotation (CAFA is one such community experiment. The meeting of CAFA was held as a Special Interest Group (SIG meeting at the Intelligent Systems in Molecular Biology (ISMB conference in 2011. Here, we perform a detailed analysis of two sequence-based function prediction methods, PFP and ESG, which were developed in our lab, using the predictions submitted to CAFA. Results We evaluate PFP and ESG using four different measures in comparison with BLAST, Prior, and GOtcha. In addition to the predictions submitted to CAFA, we further investigate performance of a different scoring function to rank order predictions by PFP as well as PFP/ESG predictions enriched with Priors that simply adds frequently occurring Gene Ontology terms as a part of predictions. Prediction accuracies of each method were also evaluated separately for different functional categories. Successful and unsuccessful predictions by PFP and ESG are also discussed in comparison with BLAST. Conclusion The in-depth analysis discussed here will complement the overall assessment by the CAFA organizers. Since PFP and ESG are based on sequence database search results, our analyses are not only useful for PFP and ESG users but will also shed light on the relationship of the sequence similarity space and functions that can be inferred from the sequences.

Prediction Model of Collapse Risk Based on Information Entropy and Distance Discriminant Analysis Method

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Hujun He

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The prediction and risk classification of collapse is an important issue in the process of highway construction in mountainous regions. Based on the principles of information entropy and Mahalanobis distance discriminant analysis, we have produced a collapse hazard prediction model. We used the entropy measure method to reduce the influence indexes of the collapse activity and extracted the nine main indexes affecting collapse activity as the discriminant factors of the distance discriminant analysis model (i.e., slope shape, aspect, gradient, and height, along with exposure of the structural face, stratum lithology, relationship between weakness face and free face, vegetation cover rate, and degree of rock weathering. We employ postearthquake collapse data in relation to construction of the Yingxiu-Wolong highway, Hanchuan County, China, as training samples for analysis. The results were analyzed using the back substitution estimation method, showing high accuracy and no errors, and were the same as the prediction result of uncertainty measure. Results show that the classification model based on information entropy and distance discriminant analysis achieves the purpose of index optimization and has excellent performance, high prediction accuracy, and a zero false-positive rate. The model can be used as a tool for future evaluation of collapse risk.

Predicting Patient-specific Dosimetric Benefits of Proton Therapy for Skull-base Tumors Using a Geometric Knowledge-based Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hall, David C.; Trofimov, Alexei V.; Winey, Brian A.; Liebsch, Norbert J.; Paganetti, Harald, E-mail: hpaganetti@mgh.harvard.edu

2017-04-01

Purpose: To predict the organ at risk (OAR) dose levels achievable with proton beam therapy (PBT), solely based on the geometric arrangement of the target volume in relation to the OARs. A comparison with an alternative therapy yields a prediction of the patient-specific benefits offered by PBT. This could enable physicians at hospitals without proton capabilities to make a better-informed referral decision or aid patient selection in model-based clinical trials. Methods and Materials: Skull-base tumors were chosen to test the method, owing to their geometric complexity and multitude of nearby OARs. By exploiting the correlations between the dose and distance-to-target in existing PBT plans, the models were independently trained for 6 types of OARs: brainstem, cochlea, optic chiasm, optic nerve, parotid gland, and spinal cord. Once trained, the models could estimate the feasible dose–volume histogram and generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) for OAR structures of new patients. The models were trained using 20 patients and validated using an additional 21 patients. Validation was achieved by comparing the predicted gEUD to that of the actual PBT plan. Results: The predicted and planned gEUD were in good agreement. Considering all OARs, the prediction error was +1.4 ± 5.1 Gy (mean ± standard deviation), and Pearson's correlation coefficient was 93%. By comparing with an intensity modulated photon treatment plan, the model could classify whether an OAR structure would experience a gain, with a sensitivity of 93% (95% confidence interval: 87%-97%) and specificity of 63% (95% confidence interval: 38%-84%). Conclusions: We trained and validated models that could quickly and accurately predict the patient-specific benefits of PBT for skull-base tumors. Similar models could be developed for other tumor sites. Such models will be useful when an estimation of the feasible benefits of PBT is desired but the experience and/or resources required for treatment

Short-term prediction method of wind speed series based on fractal interpolation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiu, Chunbo; Wang, Tiantian; Tian, Meng; Li, Yanqing; Cheng, Yi

2014-01-01

Highlights: • An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed. • The chaos optimization algorithm is used to obtain the iterated function system. • The fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction of wind speed series is performed. - Abstract: In order to improve the prediction performance of the wind speed series, the rescaled range analysis is used to analyze the fractal characteristics of the wind speed series. An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed to predict the wind speed series whose Hurst exponents are close to 1. An optimization function which is composed of the interpolation error and the constraint items of the vertical scaling factors in the fractal interpolation iterated function system is designed. The chaos optimization algorithm is used to optimize the function to resolve the optimal vertical scaling factors. According to the self-similarity characteristic and the scale invariance, the fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction can be performed by extending the fractal characteristic from internal interval to external interval. Simulation results show that the fractal interpolation prediction method can get better prediction result than others for the wind speed series with the fractal characteristic, and the prediction performance of the proposed method can be improved further because the fractal characteristic of its iterated function system is similar to that of the predicted wind speed series

Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

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Barlow, Jonathan S.

2010-01-01

Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

Systems-based biological concordance and predictive reproducibility of gene set discovery methods in cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Azuaje, Francisco; Zheng, Huiru; Camargo, Anyela; Wang, Haiying

2011-08-01

The discovery of novel disease biomarkers is a crucial challenge for translational bioinformatics. Demonstration of both their classification power and reproducibility across independent datasets are essential requirements to assess their potential clinical relevance. Small datasets and multiplicity of putative biomarker sets may explain lack of predictive reproducibility. Studies based on pathway-driven discovery approaches have suggested that, despite such discrepancies, the resulting putative biomarkers tend to be implicated in common biological processes. Investigations of this problem have been mainly focused on datasets derived from cancer research. We investigated the predictive and functional concordance of five methods for discovering putative biomarkers in four independently-generated datasets from the cardiovascular disease domain. A diversity of biosignatures was identified by the different methods. However, we found strong biological process concordance between them, especially in the case of methods based on gene set analysis. With a few exceptions, we observed lack of classification reproducibility using independent datasets. Partial overlaps between our putative sets of biomarkers and the primary studies exist. Despite the observed limitations, pathway-driven or gene set analysis can predict potentially novel biomarkers and can jointly point to biomedically-relevant underlying molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Novel Method to Predict Genomic Islands Based on Mean Shift Clustering Algorithm.

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Daniel M de Brito

Full Text Available Genomic Islands (GIs are regions of bacterial genomes that are acquired from other organisms by the phenomenon of horizontal transfer. These regions are often responsible for many important acquired adaptations of the bacteria, with great impact on their evolution and behavior. Nevertheless, these adaptations are usually associated with pathogenicity, antibiotic resistance, degradation and metabolism. Identification of such regions is of medical and industrial interest. For this reason, different approaches for genomic islands prediction have been proposed. However, none of them are capable of predicting precisely the complete repertory of GIs in a genome. The difficulties arise due to the changes in performance of different algorithms in the face of the variety of nucleotide distribution in different species. In this paper, we present a novel method to predict GIs that is built upon mean shift clustering algorithm. It does not require any information regarding the number of clusters, and the bandwidth parameter is automatically calculated based on a heuristic approach. The method was implemented in a new user-friendly tool named MSGIP--Mean Shift Genomic Island Predictor. Genomes of bacteria with GIs discussed in other papers were used to evaluate the proposed method. The application of this tool revealed the same GIs predicted by other methods and also different novel unpredicted islands. A detailed investigation of the different features related to typical GI elements inserted in these new regions confirmed its effectiveness. Stand-alone and user-friendly versions for this new methodology are available at http://msgip.integrativebioinformatics.me.

Regression trees for predicting mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: What improvement is achieved by using ensemble-based methods?

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Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tu, Jack V

2012-01-01

In biomedical research, the logistic regression model is the most commonly used method for predicting the probability of a binary outcome. While many clinical researchers have expressed an enthusiasm for regression trees, this method may have limited accuracy for predicting health outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the improvement that is achieved by using ensemble-based methods, including bootstrap aggregation (bagging) of regression trees, random forests, and boosted regression trees. We analyzed 30-day mortality in two large cohorts of patients hospitalized with either acute myocardial infarction (N = 16,230) or congestive heart failure (N = 15,848) in two distinct eras (1999–2001 and 2004–2005). We found that both the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction of ensemble methods offered substantial improvement in predicting cardiovascular mortality compared to conventional regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression models that incorporated restricted cubic smoothing splines had even better performance. We conclude that ensemble methods from the data mining and machine learning literature increase the predictive performance of regression trees, but may not lead to clear advantages over conventional logistic regression models for predicting short-term mortality in population-based samples of subjects with cardiovascular disease. PMID:22777999

Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

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Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.

2015-06-01

The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with the earthquake date and in this case the FDL method coincides with the MFDL. Based on the MDFL method we present the prediction method capable of predicting global events or localized earthquakes and we will discuss the accuracy of the method in as far as the prediction and location parts of the method. We show example calendar style predictions for global events as well as for the Greek region using

The steady performance prediction of propeller-rudder-bulb system based on potential iterative method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Y B; Su, Y M; Ju, L; Huang, S L

2012-01-01

A new numerical method was developed for predicting the steady hydrodynamic performance of propeller-rudder-bulb system. In the calculation, the rudder and bulb was taken into account as a whole, the potential based surface panel method was applied both to propeller and rudder-bulb system. The interaction between propeller and rudder-bulb was taken into account by velocity potential iteration in which the influence of propeller rotation was considered by the average influence coefficient. In the influence coefficient computation, the singular value should be found and deleted. Numerical results showed that the method presented is effective for predicting the steady hydrodynamic performance of propeller-rudder system and propeller-rudder-bulb system. Comparing with the induced velocity iterative method, the method presented can save programming and calculation time. Changing dimensions, the principal parameter—bulb size that affect energy-saving effect was studied, the results show that the bulb on rudder have a optimal size at the design advance coefficient.

Method of predicting Splice Sites based on signal interactions

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Deogun Jitender S

2006-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Predicting and proper ranking of canonical splice sites (SSs is a challenging problem in bioinformatics and machine learning communities. Any progress in SSs recognition will lead to better understanding of splicing mechanism. We introduce several new approaches of combining a priori knowledge for improved SS detection. First, we design our new Bayesian SS sensor based on oligonucleotide counting. To further enhance prediction quality, we applied our new de novo motif detection tool MHMMotif to intronic ends and exons. We combine elements found with sensor information using Naive Bayesian Network, as implemented in our new tool SpliceScan. Results According to our tests, the Bayesian sensor outperforms the contemporary Maximum Entropy sensor for 5' SS detection. We report a number of putative Exonic (ESE and Intronic (ISE Splicing Enhancers found by MHMMotif tool. T-test statistics on mouse/rat intronic alignments indicates, that detected elements are on average more conserved as compared to other oligos, which supports our assumption of their functional importance. The tool has been shown to outperform the SpliceView, GeneSplicer, NNSplice, Genio and NetUTR tools for the test set of human genes. SpliceScan outperforms all contemporary ab initio gene structural prediction tools on the set of 5' UTR gene fragments. Conclusion Designed methods have many attractive properties, compared to existing approaches. Bayesian sensor, MHMMotif program and SpliceScan tools are freely available on our web site. Reviewers This article was reviewed by Manyuan Long, Arcady Mushegian and Mikhail Gelfand.

Urban Link Travel Time Prediction Based on a Gradient Boosting Method Considering Spatiotemporal Correlations

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Faming Zhang

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The prediction of travel times is challenging because of the sparseness of real-time traffic data and the intrinsic uncertainty of travel on congested urban road networks. We propose a new gradient–boosted regression tree method to accurately predict travel times. This model accounts for spatiotemporal correlations extracted from historical and real-time traffic data for adjacent and target links. This method can deliver high prediction accuracy by combining simple regression trees with poor performance. It corrects the error found in existing models for improved prediction accuracy. Our spatiotemporal gradient–boosted regression tree model was verified in experiments. The training data were obtained from big data reflecting historic traffic conditions collected by probe vehicles in Wuhan from January to May 2014. Real-time data were extracted from 11 weeks of GPS records collected in Wuhan from 5 May 2014 to 20 July 2014. Based on these data, we predicted link travel time for the period from 21 July 2014 to 25 July 2014. Experiments showed that our proposed spatiotemporal gradient–boosted regression tree model obtained better results than gradient boosting, random forest, or autoregressive integrated moving average approaches. Furthermore, these results indicate the advantages of our model for urban link travel time prediction.

High temperature strength data-base of SUS304 steel and a study on life prediction method under ceep-fatigue interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsubara, Masaaki; Nitta, Akito; Ogata, Takashi; Kuwabara, Kazuo

1985-01-01

As a part of ''Study for practical use of Tank Type FBR'', ''Practical use of inelastic analysis method to FBR structural design'' is carried out as a cooperative study for three years from 1984. In this cooperative study, to establish the life prediction method under creep-fatigue interaction is one of the most important theme. To attain this purpose, many different type tests are planned and then conducted. By the way, to use these many data rapidly and effectively, it is necessary to make a data base. So in this work, we developed the simple data base of high temperature strength. And the data of SUS304 obtained at this place to this day are inputted into this data base. Next, we investigated about five life prediction methods under creep-fatigue interaction, Frequency Modified Method, Ostergren Method, Strain Range Partitioning Method, Damage Rate Approach and Strain Energy Parameter Method. As a result, Strain Range Partitioning Method can predict the lives within Factor of 2. In the other four methods, it is supported that material constants in the prediction formula are dependent on temperature. (author)

Fluvial facies reservoir productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis and artificial neural network

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Pengyu Gao

2016-03-01

Full Text Available It is difficult to forecast the well productivity because of the complexity of vertical and horizontal developments in fluvial facies reservoir. This paper proposes a method based on Principal Component Analysis and Artificial Neural Network to predict well productivity of fluvial facies reservoir. The method summarizes the statistical reservoir factors and engineering factors that affect the well productivity, extracts information by applying the principal component analysis method and approximates arbitrary functions of the neural network to realize an accurate and efficient prediction on the fluvial facies reservoir well productivity. This method provides an effective way for forecasting the productivity of fluvial facies reservoir which is affected by multi-factors and complex mechanism. The study result shows that this method is a practical, effective, accurate and indirect productivity forecast method and is suitable for field application.

Prediction method for cavitation erosion based on measurement of bubble collapse impact loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hattori, S; Hirose, T; Sugiyama, K

2009-01-01

The prediction of cavitation erosion rates is important in order to evaluate the exact life of components. The measurement of impact loads in bubble collapses helps to predict the life under cavitation erosion. In this study, we carried out erosion tests and the measurements of impact loads in bubble collapses with a vibratory apparatus. We evaluated the incubation period based on a cumulative damage rule by measuring the impact loads of cavitation acting on the specimen surface and by using the 'constant impact load - number of impact loads curve' similar to the modified Miner's rule which is employed for fatigue life prediction. We found that the parameter Σ(F i α xn i ) (F i : impact load, n i : number of impacts and α: constant) is suitable for the evaluation of the erosion life. Moreover, we propose a new method that can predict the incubation period under various cavitation conditions.

KFC2: a knowledge-based hot spot prediction method based on interface solvation, atomic density, and plasticity features.

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Zhu, Xiaolei; Mitchell, Julie C

2011-09-01

Hot spots constitute a small fraction of protein-protein interface residues, yet they account for a large fraction of the binding affinity. Based on our previous method (KFC), we present two new methods (KFC2a and KFC2b) that outperform other methods at hot spot prediction. A number of improvements were made in developing these new methods. First, we created a training data set that contained a similar number of hot spot and non-hot spot residues. In addition, we generated 47 different features, and different numbers of features were used to train the models to avoid over-fitting. Finally, two feature combinations were selected: One (used in KFC2a) is composed of eight features that are mainly related to solvent accessible surface area and local plasticity; the other (KFC2b) is composed of seven features, only two of which are identical to those used in KFC2a. The two models were built using support vector machines (SVM). The two KFC2 models were then tested on a mixed independent test set, and compared with other methods such as Robetta, FOLDEF, HotPoint, MINERVA, and KFC. KFC2a showed the highest predictive accuracy for hot spot residues (True Positive Rate: TPR = 0.85); however, the false positive rate was somewhat higher than for other models. KFC2b showed the best predictive accuracy for hot spot residues (True Positive Rate: TPR = 0.62) among all methods other than KFC2a, and the False Positive Rate (FPR = 0.15) was comparable with other highly predictive methods. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Novel hyperspectral prediction method and apparatus

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Kemeny, Gabor J.; Crothers, Natalie A.; Groth, Gard A.; Speck, Kathy A.; Marbach, Ralf

2009-05-01

Both the power and the challenge of hyperspectral technologies is the very large amount of data produced by spectral cameras. While off-line methodologies allow the collection of gigabytes of data, extended data analysis sessions are required to convert the data into useful information. In contrast, real-time monitoring, such as on-line process control, requires that compression of spectral data and analysis occur at a sustained full camera data rate. Efficient, high-speed practical methods for calibration and prediction are therefore sought to optimize the value of hyperspectral imaging. A novel method of matched filtering known as science based multivariate calibration (SBC) was developed for hyperspectral calibration. Classical (MLR) and inverse (PLS, PCR) methods are combined by spectroscopically measuring the spectral "signal" and by statistically estimating the spectral "noise." The accuracy of the inverse model is thus combined with the easy interpretability of the classical model. The SBC method is optimized for hyperspectral data in the Hyper-CalTM software used for the present work. The prediction algorithms can then be downloaded into a dedicated FPGA based High-Speed Prediction EngineTM module. Spectral pretreatments and calibration coefficients are stored on interchangeable SD memory cards, and predicted compositions are produced on a USB interface at real-time camera output rates. Applications include minerals, pharmaceuticals, food processing and remote sensing.

EPMLR: sequence-based linear B-cell epitope prediction method using multiple linear regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Lian, Yao; Ge, Meng; Pan, Xian-Ming

2014-12-19

B-cell epitopes have been studied extensively due to their immunological applications, such as peptide-based vaccine development, antibody production, and disease diagnosis and therapy. Despite several decades of research, the accurate prediction of linear B-cell epitopes has remained a challenging task. In this work, based on the antigen's primary sequence information, a novel linear B-cell epitope prediction model was developed using the multiple linear regression (MLR). A 10-fold cross-validation test on a large non-redundant dataset was performed to evaluate the performance of our model. To alleviate the problem caused by the noise of negative dataset, 300 experiments utilizing 300 sub-datasets were performed. We achieved overall sensitivity of 81.8%, precision of 64.1% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.728. We have presented a reliable method for the identification of linear B cell epitope using antigen's primary sequence information. Moreover, a web server EPMLR has been developed for linear B-cell epitope prediction: http://www.bioinfo.tsinghua.edu.cn/epitope/EPMLR/ .

Comparison of Four Weighting Methods in Fuzzy-based Land Suitability to Predict Wheat Yield

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Fatemeh Rahmati

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Land suitability evaluation is a process to examine the degree of land fitness for specific utilization and also makes it possible to estimate land productivity potential. In 1976, FAO provided a general framework for land suitability classification. It has not been proposed a specific method to perform this classification in the framework. In later years, a collection of methods was presented based on the FAO framework. In parametric method, different land suitability aspects are defined as completely discrete groups and are separated from each other by distinguished and consistent ranges. Therefore, land units that have moderate suitability can only choose one of the characteristics of predefined classes of land suitability. Fuzzy logic is an extension of Boolean logic by LotfiZadeh in 1965 based on the mathematical theory of fuzzy sets, which is a generalization of the classical set theory. By introducing the notion of degree in the verification of a condition, fuzzy method enables a condition to be in a state other than true or false, as well as provides a very valuable flexibility for reasoning, which makes it possible to take into account inaccuracies and uncertainties. One advantage of fuzzy logic in order to formalize human reasoning is that the rules are set in natural language. In evaluation method based on fuzzy logic, the weights are used for land characteristics. The objective of this study was to compare four methods of weight calculation in the fuzzy logic to predict the yield of wheat in the study area covering 1500 ha in Kian town in Shahrekord (Chahrmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran. Materials and Methods: In such investigations, climatic factors, and soil physical and chemical characteristics are studied. This investigation involves several studies including a lab study, and qualitative and quantitative land suitability evaluation with fuzzy logic for wheat. Factors affecting the wheat production consist of

Prediction based on mean subset

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik

2002-01-01

, it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...... the coefficient vectors from each subset should be weighted. It is not computationally feasible to calculate the mean subset coefficient vector for larger problems, and thus we suggest an algorithm to find an approximation to the mean subset coefficient vector. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study...

Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

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Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

1993-01-01

The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

Development of a regional ensemble prediction method for probabilistic weather prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nohara, Daisuke; Tamura, Hidetoshi; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2015-01-01

A regional ensemble prediction method has been developed to provide probabilistic weather prediction using a numerical weather prediction model. To obtain consistent perturbations with the synoptic weather pattern, both of initial and lateral boundary perturbations were given by differences between control and ensemble member of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week ensemble forecast. The method provides a multiple ensemble member with a horizontal resolution of 15 km for 48-hour based on a downscaling of the JMA's operational global forecast accompanied with the perturbations. The ensemble prediction was examined in the case of heavy snow fall event in Kanto area on January 14, 2013. The results showed that the predictions represent different features of high-resolution spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation affected by intensity and location of extra-tropical cyclone in each ensemble member. Although the ensemble prediction has model bias of mean values and variances in some variables such as wind speed and solar radiation, the ensemble prediction has a potential to append a probabilistic information to a deterministic prediction. (author)

Data Based Prediction of Blood Glucose Concentrations Using Evolutionary Methods.

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Hidalgo, J Ignacio; Colmenar, J Manuel; Kronberger, Gabriel; Winkler, Stephan M; Garnica, Oscar; Lanchares, Juan

2017-08-08

Predicting glucose values on the basis of insulin and food intakes is a difficult task that people with diabetes need to do daily. This is necessary as it is important to maintain glucose levels at appropriate values to avoid not only short-term, but also long-term complications of the illness. Artificial intelligence in general and machine learning techniques in particular have already lead to promising results in modeling and predicting glucose concentrations. In this work, several machine learning techniques are used for the modeling and prediction of glucose concentrations using as inputs the values measured by a continuous monitoring glucose system as well as also previous and estimated future carbohydrate intakes and insulin injections. In particular, we use the following four techniques: genetic programming, random forests, k-nearest neighbors, and grammatical evolution. We propose two new enhanced modeling algorithms for glucose prediction, namely (i) a variant of grammatical evolution which uses an optimized grammar, and (ii) a variant of tree-based genetic programming which uses a three-compartment model for carbohydrate and insulin dynamics. The predictors were trained and tested using data of ten patients from a public hospital in Spain. We analyze our experimental results using the Clarke error grid metric and see that 90% of the forecasts are correct (i.e., Clarke error categories A and B), but still even the best methods produce 5 to 10% of serious errors (category D) and approximately 0.5% of very serious errors (category E). We also propose an enhanced genetic programming algorithm that incorporates a three-compartment model into symbolic regression models to create smoothed time series of the original carbohydrate and insulin time series.

A new method for class prediction based on signed-rank algorithms applied to Affymetrix® microarray experiments

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Vassal Aurélien

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The huge amount of data generated by DNA chips is a powerful basis to classify various pathologies. However, constant evolution of microarray technology makes it difficult to mix data from different chip types for class prediction of limited sample populations. Affymetrix® technology provides both a quantitative fluorescence signal and a decision (detection call: absent or present based on signed-rank algorithms applied to several hybridization repeats of each gene, with a per-chip normalization. We developed a new prediction method for class belonging based on the detection call only from recent Affymetrix chip type. Biological data were obtained by hybridization on U133A, U133B and U133Plus 2.0 microarrays of purified normal B cells and cells from three independent groups of multiple myeloma (MM patients. Results After a call-based data reduction step to filter out non class-discriminative probe sets, the gene list obtained was reduced to a predictor with correction for multiple testing by iterative deletion of probe sets that sequentially improve inter-class comparisons and their significance. The error rate of the method was determined using leave-one-out and 5-fold cross-validation. It was successfully applied to (i determine a sex predictor with the normal donor group classifying gender with no error in all patient groups except for male MM samples with a Y chromosome deletion, (ii predict the immunoglobulin light and heavy chains expressed by the malignant myeloma clones of the validation group and (iii predict sex, light and heavy chain nature for every new patient. Finally, this method was shown powerful when compared to the popular classification method Prediction Analysis of Microarray (PAM. Conclusion This normalization-free method is routinely used for quality control and correction of collection errors in patient reports to clinicians. It can be easily extended to multiple class prediction suitable with

A prediction method for the wax deposition rate based on a radial basis function neural network

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Ying Xie

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The radial basis function neural network is a popular supervised learning tool based on machinery learning technology. Its high precision having been proven, the radial basis function neural network has been applied in many areas. The accumulation of deposited materials in the pipeline may lead to the need for increased pumping power, a decreased flow rate or even to the total blockage of the line, with losses of production and capital investment, so research on predicting the wax deposition rate is significant for the safe and economical operation of an oil pipeline. This paper adopts the radial basis function neural network to predict the wax deposition rate by considering four main influencing factors, the pipe wall temperature gradient, pipe wall wax crystal solubility coefficient, pipe wall shear stress and crude oil viscosity, by the gray correlational analysis method. MATLAB software is employed to establish the RBF neural network. Compared with the previous literature, favorable consistency exists between the predicted outcomes and the experimental results, with a relative error of 1.5%. It can be concluded that the prediction method of wax deposition rate based on the RBF neural network is feasible.

Investigation into Methods for Predicting Connection Temperatures

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K. Anderson

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The mechanical response of connections in fire is largely based on material strength degradation and the interactions between the various components of the connection. In order to predict connection performance in fire, temperature profiles must initially be established in order to evaluate the material strength degradation over time. This paper examines two current methods for predicting connection temperatures: The percentage method, where connection temperatures are calculated as a percentage of the adjacent beam lower-flange, mid-span temperatures; and the lumped capacitance method, based on the lumped mass of the connection. Results from the percentage method do not correlate well with experimental results, whereas the lumped capacitance method shows much better agreement with average connection temperatures. A 3D finite element heat transfer model was also created in Abaqus, and showed good correlation with experimental results. 

Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

Science.gov (United States)

Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

2018-03-01

Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

SVM-PB-Pred: SVM based protein block prediction method using sequence profiles and secondary structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Suresh, V; Parthasarathy, S

2014-01-01

We developed a support vector machine based web server called SVM-PB-Pred, to predict the Protein Block for any given amino acid sequence. The input features of SVM-PB-Pred include i) sequence profiles (PSSM) and ii) actual secondary structures (SS) from DSSP method or predicted secondary structures from NPS@ and GOR4 methods. There were three combined input features PSSM+SS(DSSP), PSSM+SS(NPS@) and PSSM+SS(GOR4) used to test and train the SVM models. Similarly, four datasets RS90, DB433, LI1264 and SP1577 were used to develop the SVM models. These four SVM models developed were tested using three different benchmarking tests namely; (i) self consistency, (ii) seven fold cross validation test and (iii) independent case test. The maximum possible prediction accuracy of ~70% was observed in self consistency test for the SVM models of both LI1264 and SP1577 datasets, where PSSM+SS(DSSP) input features was used to test. The prediction accuracies were reduced to ~53% for PSSM+SS(NPS@) and ~43% for PSSM+SS(GOR4) in independent case test, for the SVM models of above two same datasets. Using our method, it is possible to predict the protein block letters for any query protein sequence with ~53% accuracy, when the SP1577 dataset and predicted secondary structure from NPS@ server were used. The SVM-PB-Pred server can be freely accessed through http://bioinfo.bdu.ac.in/~svmpbpred.

A measurement-based method for predicting margins and uncertainties for unprotected accidents in the Integral Fast Reactor concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vilim, R.B.

1990-01-01

A measurement-based method for predicting the response of an LMR core to unprotected accidents has been developed. The method processes plant measurements taken at normal operation to generate a stochastic model for the core dynamics. This model can be used to predict three sigma confidence intervals for the core temperature and power response. Preliminary numerical simulations performed for EBR-2 appear promising. 6 refs., 2 figs

FaaPred: a SVM-based prediction method for fungal adhesins and adhesin-like proteins.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jayashree Ramana

Full Text Available Adhesion constitutes one of the initial stages of infection in microbial diseases and is mediated by adhesins. Hence, identification and comprehensive knowledge of adhesins and adhesin-like proteins is essential to understand adhesin mediated pathogenesis and how to exploit its therapeutic potential. However, the knowledge about fungal adhesins is rudimentary compared to that of bacterial adhesins. In addition to host cell attachment and mating, the fungal adhesins play a significant role in homotypic and xenotypic aggregation, foraging and biofilm formation. Experimental identification of fungal adhesins is labor- as well as time-intensive. In this work, we present a Support Vector Machine (SVM based method for the prediction of fungal adhesins and adhesin-like proteins. The SVM models were trained with different compositional features, namely, amino acid, dipeptide, multiplet fractions, charge and hydrophobic compositions, as well as PSI-BLAST derived PSSM matrices. The best classifiers are based on compositional properties as well as PSSM and yield an overall accuracy of 86%. The prediction method based on best classifiers is freely accessible as a world wide web based server at http://bioinfo.icgeb.res.in/faap. This work will aid rapid and rational identification of fungal adhesins, expedite the pace of experimental characterization of novel fungal adhesins and enhance our knowledge about role of adhesins in fungal infections.

Prediction-error of Prediction Error (PPE)-based Reversible Data Hiding

OpenAIRE

Wu, Han-Zhou; Wang, Hong-Xia; Shi, Yun-Qing

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel reversible data hiding (RDH) algorithm for gray-scaled images, in which the prediction-error of prediction error (PPE) of a pixel is used to carry the secret data. In the proposed method, the pixels to be embedded are firstly predicted with their neighboring pixels to obtain the corresponding prediction errors (PEs). Then, by exploiting the PEs of the neighboring pixels, the prediction of the PEs of the pixels can be determined. And, a sorting technique based on th...

Earthquake prediction by Kina Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kianoosh, H.; Keypour, H.; Naderzadeh, A.; Motlagh, H.F.

2005-01-01

Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)

A geometrically based method for predicting stress-induced fracture aperture and flow in discrete fracture networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bisdom, Kevin; Bertotti, Giovanni; Nick, Hamid

2016-01-01

networks, digitized from outcropping pavements. These networks cover a wide range of possible geometries and spatial distributions. The geometrically based method predicts the average hydraulic aperture and equivalent permeability of fractured porous media with error margins of less than 5%....

Predictive equation of state method for heavy materials based on the Dirac equation and density functional theory

Science.gov (United States)

Wills, John M.; Mattsson, Ann E.

2012-02-01

Density functional theory (DFT) provides a formally predictive base for equation of state properties. Available approximations to the exchange/correlation functional provide accurate predictions for many materials in the periodic table. For heavy materials however, DFT calculations, using available functionals, fail to provide quantitative predictions, and often fail to be even qualitative. This deficiency is due both to the lack of the appropriate confinement physics in the exchange/correlation functional and to approximations used to evaluate the underlying equations. In order to assess and develop accurate functionals, it is essential to eliminate all other sources of error. In this talk we describe an efficient first-principles electronic structure method based on the Dirac equation and compare the results obtained with this method with other methods generally used. Implications for high-pressure equation of state of relativistic materials are demonstrated in application to Ce and the light actinides. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed andoperated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

A new wind power prediction method based on chaotic theory and Bernstein Neural Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Cong; Zhang, Hongli; Fan, Wenhui; Fan, Xiaochao

2016-01-01

The accuracy of wind power prediction is important for assessing the security and economy of the system operation when wind power connects to the grids. However, multiple factors cause a long delay and large errors in wind power prediction. Hence, efficient wind power forecasting approaches are still required for practical applications. In this paper, a new wind power forecasting method based on Chaos Theory and Bernstein Neural Network (BNN) is proposed. Firstly, the largest Lyapunov exponent as a judgment for wind power system's chaotic behavior is made. Secondly, Phase Space Reconstruction (PSR) is used to reconstruct the wind power series' phase space. Thirdly, the prediction model is constructed using the Bernstein polynomial and neural network. Finally, the weights and thresholds of the model are optimized by Primal Dual State Transition Algorithm (PDSTA). The practical hourly data of wind power generation in Xinjiang is used to test this forecaster. The proposed forecaster is compared with several current prominent research findings. Analytical results indicate that the forecasting error of PDSTA + BNN is 3.893% for 24 look-ahead hours, and has lower errors obtained compared with the other forecast methods discussed in this paper. The results of all cases studying confirm the validity of the new forecast method. - Highlights: • Lyapunov exponent is used to verify chaotic behavior of wind power series. • Phase Space Reconstruction is used to reconstruct chaotic wind power series. • A new Bernstein Neural Network to predict wind power series is proposed. • Primal dual state transition algorithm is chosen as the training strategy of BNN.

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng; Pota, Hemanshu; Gadh, Rajit

2016-05-02

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.

Method of predicting the mean lung dose based on a patient's anatomy and dose-volume histograms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zawadzka, Anna, E-mail: a.zawadzka@zfm.coi.pl [Medical Physics Department, Centre of Oncology, Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center, Warsaw (Poland); Nesteruk, Marta [Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, Warsaw (Poland); Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Zurich and University of Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); Brzozowska, Beata [Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, Warsaw (Poland); Kukołowicz, Paweł F. [Medical Physics Department, Centre of Oncology, Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center, Warsaw (Poland)

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to propose a method to predict the minimum achievable mean lung dose (MLD) and corresponding dosimetric parameters for organs-at-risk (OAR) based on individual patient anatomy. For each patient, the dose for 36 equidistant individual multileaf collimator shaped fields in the treatment planning system (TPS) was calculated. Based on these dose matrices, the MLD for each patient was predicted by the homemade DosePredictor software in which the solution of linear equations was implemented. The software prediction results were validated based on 3D conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans previously prepared for 16 patients with stage III non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). For each patient, dosimetric parameters derived from plans and the results calculated by DosePredictor were compared. The MLD, the maximum dose to the spinal cord (D{sub max} {sub cord}) and the mean esophageal dose (MED) were analyzed. There was a strong correlation between the MLD calculated by the DosePredictor and those obtained in treatment plans regardless of the technique used. The correlation coefficient was 0.96 for both 3D-CRT and VMAT techniques. In a similar manner, MED correlations of 0.98 and 0.96 were obtained for 3D-CRT and VMAT plans, respectively. The maximum dose to the spinal cord was not predicted very well. The correlation coefficient was 0.30 and 0.61 for 3D-CRT and VMAT, respectively. The presented method allows us to predict the minimum MLD and corresponding dosimetric parameters to OARs without the necessity of plan preparation. The method can serve as a guide during the treatment planning process, for example, as initial constraints in VMAT optimization. It allows the probability of lung pneumonitis to be predicted.

SU-D-BRB-01: A Comparison of Learning Methods for Knowledge Based Dose Prediction for Coplanar and Non-Coplanar Liver Radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tran, A; Ruan, D; Woods, K; Yu, V; Nguyen, D; Sheng, K [UCLA School of Medicine, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: The predictive power of knowledge based planning (KBP) has considerable potential in the development of automated treatment planning. Here, we examine the predictive capabilities and accuracy of previously reported KBP methods, as well as an artificial neural networks (ANN) method. Furthermore, we compare the predictive accuracy of these methods on coplanar volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and non-coplanar 4π radiotherapy. Methods: 30 liver SBRT patients previously treated using coplanar VMAT were selected for this study. The patients were re-planned using 4π radiotherapy, which involves 20 optimally selected non-coplanar IMRT fields. ANNs were used to incorporate enhanced geometric information including liver and PTV size, prescription dose, patient girth, and proximity to beams. The performance of ANN was compared to three methods from statistical voxel dose learning (SVDL), wherein the doses of voxels sharing the same distance to the PTV are approximated by either taking the median of the distribution, non-parametric fitting, or skew-normal fitting. These three methods were shown to be capable of predicting DVH, but only median approximation can predict 3D dose. Prediction methods were tested using leave-one-out cross-validation tests and evaluated using residual sum of squares (RSS) for DVH and 3D dose predictions. Results: DVH prediction using non-parametric fitting had the lowest average RSS with 0.1176(4π) and 0.1633(VMAT), compared to 0.4879(4π) and 1.8744(VMAT) RSS for ANN. 3D dose prediction with median approximation had lower RSS with 12.02(4π) and 29.22(VMAT), compared to 27.95(4π) and 130.9(VMAT) for ANN. Conclusion: Paradoxically, although the ANNs included geometric features in addition to the distances to the PTV, it did not perform better in predicting DVH or 3D dose compared to simpler, faster methods based on the distances alone. The study further confirms that the prediction of 4π non-coplanar plans were more accurate than

Prediction Methods for Blood Glucose Concentration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

“Recent Results on Glucose–Insulin Predictions by Means of a State Observer for Time-Delay Systems” by Pasquale Palumbo et al. introduces a prediction model which in real time predicts the insulin concentration in blood which in turn is used in a control system. The method is tested in simulation...... EEG signals to predict upcoming hypoglycemic situations in real-time by employing artificial neural networks. The results of a 30-day long clinical study with the implanted device and the developed algorithm are presented. The chapter “Meta-Learning Based Blood Glucose Predictor for Diabetic......, but the insulin amount is chosen using factors that account for this expectation. The increasing availability of more accurate continuous blood glucose measurement (CGM) systems is attracting much interest to the possibilities of explicit prediction of future BG values. Against this background, in 2014 a two...

Interior Noise Prediction of the Automobile Based on Hybrid FE-SEA Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. M. Chen

2011-01-01

created using hybrid FE-SEA method. The modal density was calculated using analytical method and finite element method; the damping loss factors of the structural and acoustic cavity subsystems were also calculated with analytical method; the coupling loss factors between structure and structure, structure and acoustic cavity were both calculated. Four different kinds of excitations including road excitations, engine mount excitations, sound radiation excitations of the engine, and wind excitations are exerted on the body of automobile when the automobile is running on the road. All the excitations were calculated using virtual prototype technology, computational fluid dynamics (CFD, and experiments realized in the design and development stage. The interior noise of the automobile was predicted and verified at speed of 120 km/h. The predicted and tested overall SPLs of the interior noise were 73.79 and 74.44 dB(A respectively. The comparison results also show that the prediction precision is satisfied, and the effectiveness and reliability of the hybrid FE-SEA model of the automobile is verified.

A Localization Method for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks Based on Mobility Prediction and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Zhang

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Due to their special environment, Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs are usually deployed over a large sea area and the nodes are usually floating. This results in a lower beacon node distribution density, a longer time for localization, and more energy consumption. Currently most of the localization algorithms in this field do not pay enough consideration on the mobility of the nodes. In this paper, by analyzing the mobility patterns of water near the seashore, a localization method for UWSNs based on a Mobility Prediction and a Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (MP-PSO is proposed. In this method, the range-based PSO algorithm is used to locate the beacon nodes, and their velocities can be calculated. The velocity of an unknown node is calculated by using the spatial correlation of underwater object’s mobility, and then their locations can be predicted. The range-based PSO algorithm may cause considerable energy consumption and its computation complexity is a little bit high, nevertheless the number of beacon nodes is relatively smaller, so the calculation for the large number of unknown nodes is succinct, and this method can obviously decrease the energy consumption and time cost of localizing these mobile nodes. The simulation results indicate that this method has higher localization accuracy and better localization coverage rate compared with some other widely used localization methods in this field.

A Localization Method for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks Based on Mobility Prediction and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ying; Liang, Jixing; Jiang, Shengming; Chen, Wei

2016-02-06

Due to their special environment, Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs) are usually deployed over a large sea area and the nodes are usually floating. This results in a lower beacon node distribution density, a longer time for localization, and more energy consumption. Currently most of the localization algorithms in this field do not pay enough consideration on the mobility of the nodes. In this paper, by analyzing the mobility patterns of water near the seashore, a localization method for UWSNs based on a Mobility Prediction and a Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (MP-PSO) is proposed. In this method, the range-based PSO algorithm is used to locate the beacon nodes, and their velocities can be calculated. The velocity of an unknown node is calculated by using the spatial correlation of underwater object's mobility, and then their locations can be predicted. The range-based PSO algorithm may cause considerable energy consumption and its computation complexity is a little bit high, nevertheless the number of beacon nodes is relatively smaller, so the calculation for the large number of unknown nodes is succinct, and this method can obviously decrease the energy consumption and time cost of localizing these mobile nodes. The simulation results indicate that this method has higher localization accuracy and better localization coverage rate compared with some other widely used localization methods in this field.

Feature selection for splice site prediction: A new method using EDA-based feature ranking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rouzé Pierre

2004-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The identification of relevant biological features in large and complex datasets is an important step towards gaining insight in the processes underlying the data. Other advantages of feature selection include the ability of the classification system to attain good or even better solutions using a restricted subset of features, and a faster classification. Thus, robust methods for fast feature selection are of key importance in extracting knowledge from complex biological data. Results In this paper we present a novel method for feature subset selection applied to splice site prediction, based on estimation of distribution algorithms, a more general framework of genetic algorithms. From the estimated distribution of the algorithm, a feature ranking is derived. Afterwards this ranking is used to iteratively discard features. We apply this technique to the problem of splice site prediction, and show how it can be used to gain insight into the underlying biological process of splicing. Conclusion We show that this technique proves to be more robust than the traditional use of estimation of distribution algorithms for feature selection: instead of returning a single best subset of features (as they normally do this method provides a dynamical view of the feature selection process, like the traditional sequential wrapper methods. However, the method is faster than the traditional techniques, and scales better to datasets described by a large number of features.

Genomic prediction based on data from three layer lines: a comparison between linear methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Calus, M.P.L.; Huang, H.; Vereijken, J.; Visscher, J.; Napel, ten J.; Windig, J.J.

2014-01-01

Background The prediction accuracy of several linear genomic prediction models, which have previously been used for within-line genomic prediction, was evaluated for multi-line genomic prediction. Methods Compared to a conventional BLUP (best linear unbiased prediction) model using pedigree data, we

GI-SVM: A sensitive method for predicting genomic islands based on unannotated sequence of a single genome.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Bingxin; Leong, Hon Wai

2016-02-01

Genomic islands (GIs) are clusters of functionally related genes acquired by lateral genetic transfer (LGT), and they are present in many bacterial genomes. GIs are extremely important for bacterial research, because they not only promote genome evolution but also contain genes that enhance adaption and enable antibiotic resistance. Many methods have been proposed to predict GI. But most of them rely on either annotations or comparisons with other closely related genomes. Hence these methods cannot be easily applied to new genomes. As the number of newly sequenced bacterial genomes rapidly increases, there is a need for methods to detect GI based solely on sequences of a single genome. In this paper, we propose a novel method, GI-SVM, to predict GIs given only the unannotated genome sequence. GI-SVM is based on one-class support vector machine (SVM), utilizing composition bias in terms of k-mer content. From our evaluations on three real genomes, GI-SVM can achieve higher recall compared with current methods, without much loss of precision. Besides, GI-SVM allows flexible parameter tuning to get optimal results for each genome. In short, GI-SVM provides a more sensitive method for researchers interested in a first-pass detection of GI in newly sequenced genomes.

Mechatronics technology in predictive maintenance method

Science.gov (United States)

Majid, Nurul Afiqah A.; Muthalif, Asan G. A.

2017-11-01

This paper presents recent mechatronics technology that can help to implement predictive maintenance by combining intelligent and predictive maintenance instrument. Vibration Fault Simulation System (VFSS) is an example of mechatronics system. The focus of this study is the prediction on the use of critical machines to detect vibration. Vibration measurement is often used as the key indicator of the state of the machine. This paper shows the choice of the appropriate strategy in the vibration of diagnostic process of the mechanical system, especially rotating machines, in recognition of the failure during the working process. In this paper, the vibration signature analysis is implemented to detect faults in rotary machining that includes imbalance, mechanical looseness, bent shaft, misalignment, missing blade bearing fault, balancing mass and critical speed. In order to perform vibration signature analysis for rotating machinery faults, studies have been made on how mechatronics technology is used as predictive maintenance methods. Vibration Faults Simulation Rig (VFSR) is designed to simulate and understand faults signatures. These techniques are based on the processing of vibrational data in frequency-domain. The LabVIEW-based spectrum analyzer software is developed to acquire and extract frequency contents of faults signals. This system is successfully tested based on the unique vibration fault signatures that always occur in a rotating machinery.

A highly accurate predictive-adaptive method for lithium-ion battery remaining discharge energy prediction in electric vehicle applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Guangming; Ouyang, Minggao; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu; Hua, Jianfeng

2015-01-01

Highlights: • An energy prediction (EP) method is introduced for battery E RDE determination. • EP determines E RDE through coupled prediction of future states, parameters, and output. • The PAEP combines parameter adaptation and prediction to update model parameters. • The PAEP provides improved E RDE accuracy compared with DC and other EP methods. - Abstract: In order to estimate the remaining driving range (RDR) in electric vehicles, the remaining discharge energy (E RDE ) of the applied battery system needs to be precisely predicted. Strongly affected by the load profiles, the available E RDE varies largely in real-world applications and requires specific determination. However, the commonly-used direct calculation (DC) method might result in certain energy prediction errors by relating the E RDE directly to the current state of charge (SOC). To enhance the E RDE accuracy, this paper presents a battery energy prediction (EP) method based on the predictive control theory, in which a coupled prediction of future battery state variation, battery model parameter change, and voltage response, is implemented on the E RDE prediction horizon, and the E RDE is subsequently accumulated and real-timely optimized. Three EP approaches with different model parameter updating routes are introduced, and the predictive-adaptive energy prediction (PAEP) method combining the real-time parameter identification and the future parameter prediction offers the best potential. Based on a large-format lithium-ion battery, the performance of different E RDE calculation methods is compared under various dynamic profiles. Results imply that the EP methods provide much better accuracy than the traditional DC method, and the PAEP could reduce the E RDE error by more than 90% and guarantee the relative energy prediction error under 2%, proving as a proper choice in online E RDE prediction. The correlation of SOC estimation and E RDE calculation is then discussed to illustrate the

Artificial neural network intelligent method for prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Trifonov, Roumen; Yoshinov, Radoslav; Pavlova, Galya; Tsochev, Georgi

2017-09-01

Accounting and financial classification and prediction problems are high challenge and researchers use different methods to solve them. Methods and instruments for short time prediction of financial operations using artificial neural network are considered. The methods, used for prediction of financial data as well as the developed forecasting system with neural network are described in the paper. The architecture of a neural network used four different technical indicators, which are based on the raw data and the current day of the week is presented. The network developed is used for forecasting movement of stock prices one day ahead and consists of an input layer, one hidden layer and an output layer. The training method is algorithm with back propagation of the error. The main advantage of the developed system is self-determination of the optimal topology of neural network, due to which it becomes flexible and more precise The proposed system with neural network is universal and can be applied to various financial instruments using only basic technical indicators as input data.

Force prediction in cold rolling mills by polynomial methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicu ROMAN

2007-12-01

Full Text Available A method for steel and aluminium strip thickness control is provided including a new technique for predictive rolling force estimation method by statistic model based on polynomial techniques.

Uncertainties in model-based outcome predictions for treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deasy, Joseph O.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; Markman, Jerry

2001-01-01

Purpose: Model-based treatment-plan-specific outcome predictions (such as normal tissue complication probability [NTCP] or the relative reduction in salivary function) are typically presented without reference to underlying uncertainties. We provide a method to assess the reliability of treatment-plan-specific dose-volume outcome model predictions. Methods and Materials: A practical method is proposed for evaluating model prediction based on the original input data together with bootstrap-based estimates of parameter uncertainties. The general framework is applicable to continuous variable predictions (e.g., prediction of long-term salivary function) and dichotomous variable predictions (e.g., tumor control probability [TCP] or NTCP). Using bootstrap resampling, a histogram of the likelihood of alternative parameter values is generated. For a given patient and treatment plan we generate a histogram of alternative model results by computing the model predicted outcome for each parameter set in the bootstrap list. Residual uncertainty ('noise') is accounted for by adding a random component to the computed outcome values. The residual noise distribution is estimated from the original fit between model predictions and patient data. Results: The method is demonstrated using a continuous-endpoint model to predict long-term salivary function for head-and-neck cancer patients. Histograms represent the probabilities for the level of posttreatment salivary function based on the input clinical data, the salivary function model, and the three-dimensional dose distribution. For some patients there is significant uncertainty in the prediction of xerostomia, whereas for other patients the predictions are expected to be more reliable. In contrast, TCP and NTCP endpoints are dichotomous, and parameter uncertainties should be folded directly into the estimated probabilities, thereby improving the accuracy of the estimates. Using bootstrap parameter estimates, competing treatment

A Hierarchical Method for Transient Stability Prediction of Power Systems Using the Confidence of a SVM-Based Ensemble Classifier

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanzhen Zhou

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Machine learning techniques have been widely used in transient stability prediction of power systems. When using the post-fault dynamic responses, it is difficult to draw a definite conclusion about how long the duration of response data used should be in order to balance the accuracy and speed. Besides, previous studies have the problem of lacking consideration for the confidence level. To solve these problems, a hierarchical method for transient stability prediction based on the confidence of ensemble classifier using multiple support vector machines (SVMs is proposed. Firstly, multiple datasets are generated by bootstrap sampling, then features are randomly picked up to compress the datasets. Secondly, the confidence indices are defined and multiple SVMs are built based on these generated datasets. By synthesizing the probabilistic outputs of multiple SVMs, the prediction results and confidence of the ensemble classifier will be obtained. Finally, different ensemble classifiers with different response times are built to construct different layers of the proposed hierarchical scheme. The simulation results show that the proposed hierarchical method can balance the accuracy and rapidity of the transient stability prediction. Moreover, the hierarchical method can reduce the misjudgments of unstable instances and cooperate with the time domain simulation to insure the security and stability of power systems.

Link Prediction Methods and Their Accuracy for Different Social Networks and Network Metrics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Gao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, we are experiencing a rapid growth of the number of social-based online systems. The availability of the vast amounts of data gathered in those systems brings new challenges that we face when trying to analyse it. One of the intensively researched topics is the prediction of social connections between users. Although a lot of effort has been made to develop new prediction approaches, the existing methods are not comprehensively analysed. In this paper we investigate the correlation between network metrics and accuracy of different prediction methods. We selected six time-stamped real-world social networks and ten most widely used link prediction methods. The results of the experiments show that the performance of some methods has a strong correlation with certain network metrics. We managed to distinguish “prediction friendly” networks, for which most of the prediction methods give good performance, as well as “prediction unfriendly” networks, for which most of the methods result in high prediction error. Correlation analysis between network metrics and prediction accuracy of prediction methods may form the basis of a metalearning system where based on network characteristics it will be able to recommend the right prediction method for a given network.

Accuracy assessment of the ERP prediction method based on analysis of 100-year ERP series

Science.gov (United States)

Malkin, Z.; Tissen, V. M.

2012-12-01

A new method has been developed at the Siberian Research Institute of Metrology (SNIIM) for highly accurate prediction of UT1 and Pole motion (PM). In this study, a detailed comparison was made of real-time UT1 predictions made in 2006-2011 and PMpredictions made in 2009-2011making use of the SNIIM method with simultaneous predictions computed at the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), USNO. Obtained results have shown that proposed method provides better accuracy at different prediction lengths.

TEHRAN AIR POLLUTANTS PREDICTION BASED ON RANDOM FOREST FEATURE SELECTION METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Shamsoddini

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Air pollution as one of the most serious forms of environmental pollutions poses huge threat to human life. Air pollution leads to environmental instability, and has harmful and undesirable effects on the environment. Modern prediction methods of the pollutant concentration are able to improve decision making and provide appropriate solutions. This study examines the performance of the Random Forest feature selection in combination with multiple-linear regression and Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Networks methods, in order to achieve an efficient model to estimate carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and PM2.5 contents in the air. The results indicated that Artificial Neural Networks fed by the attributes selected by Random Forest feature selection method performed more accurate than other models for the modeling of all pollutants. The estimation accuracy of sulfur dioxide emissions was lower than the other air contaminants whereas the nitrogen dioxide was predicted more accurate than the other pollutants.

Tehran Air Pollutants Prediction Based on Random Forest Feature Selection Method

Science.gov (United States)

Shamsoddini, A.; Aboodi, M. R.; Karami, J.

2017-09-01

Air pollution as one of the most serious forms of environmental pollutions poses huge threat to human life. Air pollution leads to environmental instability, and has harmful and undesirable effects on the environment. Modern prediction methods of the pollutant concentration are able to improve decision making and provide appropriate solutions. This study examines the performance of the Random Forest feature selection in combination with multiple-linear regression and Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Networks methods, in order to achieve an efficient model to estimate carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and PM2.5 contents in the air. The results indicated that Artificial Neural Networks fed by the attributes selected by Random Forest feature selection method performed more accurate than other models for the modeling of all pollutants. The estimation accuracy of sulfur dioxide emissions was lower than the other air contaminants whereas the nitrogen dioxide was predicted more accurate than the other pollutants.

A SOM clustering pattern sequence-based next symbol prediction method for day-ahead direct electricity load and price forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin, Cheng Hao; Pok, Gouchol; Lee, Yongmi; Park, Hyun-Woo; Kim, Kwang Deuk; Yun, Unil; Ryu, Keun Ho

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A novel pattern sequence-based direct time series forecasting method was proposed. • Due to the use of SOM’s topology preserving property, only SOM can be applied. • SCPSNSP only deals with the cluster patterns not each specific time series value. • SCPSNSP performs better than recently developed forecasting algorithms. - Abstract: In this paper, we propose a new day-ahead direct time series forecasting method for competitive electricity markets based on clustering and next symbol prediction. In the clustering step, pattern sequence and their topology relations are obtained from self organizing map time series clustering. In the next symbol prediction step, with each cluster label in the pattern sequence represented as a pair of its topologically identical coordinates, artificial neural network is used to predict the topological coordinates of next day by training the relationship between previous daily pattern sequence and its next day pattern. According to the obtained topology relations, the nearest nonzero hits pattern is assigned to next day so that the whole time series values can be directly forecasted from the assigned cluster pattern. The proposed method was evaluated on Spanish, Australian and New York electricity markets and compared with PSF and some of the most recently published forecasting methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the best forecasting methods at least 3.64%

A storm-based CSLE incorporating the modified SCS-CN method for soil loss prediction on the Chinese Loess Plateau

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Shi, Wenhai; Huang, Mingbin

2017-04-01

the storm-based CSLE. In addition, the surface runoff used by the storm-based CSLE was either obtained from measurements or from the values predicted by the modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. When using the measured runoff, the storm-based CSLE had an E of 76.6%, whereas the use of the predicted runoff gave an E of 76.4%. The high E values indicated that the storm-based CSLE incorporating the modified SCS-CN method could accurately predict storm-event-based soil losses resulting from both sheet and rill erosion at the field scale on the Chinese Loess Plateau. This approach could be applicable to other areas of the world once the model parameters have been suitably calibrated.

Simplified method to predict mutual interactions of human transcription factors based on their primary structure

KAUST Repository

Schmeier, Sebastian

2011-07-05

Background: Physical interactions between transcription factors (TFs) are necessary for forming regulatory protein complexes and thus play a crucial role in gene regulation. Currently, knowledge about the mechanisms of these TF interactions is incomplete and the number of known TF interactions is limited. Computational prediction of such interactions can help identify potential new TF interactions as well as contribute to better understanding the complex machinery involved in gene regulation. Methodology: We propose here such a method for the prediction of TF interactions. The method uses only the primary sequence information of the interacting TFs, resulting in a much greater simplicity of the prediction algorithm. Through an advanced feature selection process, we determined a subset of 97 model features that constitute the optimized model in the subset we considered. The model, based on quadratic discriminant analysis, achieves a prediction accuracy of 85.39% on a blind set of interactions. This result is achieved despite the selection for the negative data set of only those TF from the same type of proteins, i.e. TFs that function in the same cellular compartment (nucleus) and in the same type of molecular process (transcription initiation). Such selection poses significant challenges for developing models with high specificity, but at the same time better reflects real-world problems. Conclusions: The performance of our predictor compares well to those of much more complex approaches for predicting TF and general protein-protein interactions, particularly when taking the reduced complexity of model utilisation into account. © 2011 Schmeier et al.

Simplified method to predict mutual interactions of human transcription factors based on their primary structure.

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Sebastian Schmeier

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Physical interactions between transcription factors (TFs are necessary for forming regulatory protein complexes and thus play a crucial role in gene regulation. Currently, knowledge about the mechanisms of these TF interactions is incomplete and the number of known TF interactions is limited. Computational prediction of such interactions can help identify potential new TF interactions as well as contribute to better understanding the complex machinery involved in gene regulation. METHODOLOGY: We propose here such a method for the prediction of TF interactions. The method uses only the primary sequence information of the interacting TFs, resulting in a much greater simplicity of the prediction algorithm. Through an advanced feature selection process, we determined a subset of 97 model features that constitute the optimized model in the subset we considered. The model, based on quadratic discriminant analysis, achieves a prediction accuracy of 85.39% on a blind set of interactions. This result is achieved despite the selection for the negative data set of only those TF from the same type of proteins, i.e. TFs that function in the same cellular compartment (nucleus and in the same type of molecular process (transcription initiation. Such selection poses significant challenges for developing models with high specificity, but at the same time better reflects real-world problems. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of our predictor compares well to those of much more complex approaches for predicting TF and general protein-protein interactions, particularly when taking the reduced complexity of model utilisation into account.

Available Prediction Methods for Corrosion under Insulation (CUI: A Review

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Burhani Nurul Rawaida Ain

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Corrosion under insulation (CUI is an increasingly important issue for the piping in industries especially petrochemical and chemical plants due to its unexpected catastrophic disaster. Therefore, attention towards the maintenance and prediction of CUI occurrence, particularly in the corrosion rates, has grown in recent years. In this study, a literature review in determining the corrosion rates by using various prediction models and method of the corrosion occurrence between the external surface piping and its insulation was carried out. The results, prediction models and methods available were presented for future research references. However, most of the prediction methods available are based on each local industrial data only which might be different based on the plant location, environment, temperature and many other factors which may contribute to the difference and reliability of the model developed. Thus, it is more reliable if those models or method supported by laboratory testing or simulation which includes the factors promoting CUI such as environment temperature, insulation types, operating temperatures, and other factors.

Towards a unified fatigue life prediction method for marine structures

CERN Document Server

Cui, Weicheng; Wang, Fang

2014-01-01

In order to apply the damage tolerance design philosophy to design marine structures, accurate prediction of fatigue crack growth under service conditions is required. Now, more and more people have realized that only a fatigue life prediction method based on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) theory has the potential to explain various fatigue phenomena observed. In this book, the issues leading towards the development of a unified fatigue life prediction (UFLP) method based on FCP theory are addressed. Based on the philosophy of the UFLP method, the current inconsistency between fatigue design and inspection of marine structures could be resolved. This book presents the state-of-the-art and recent advances, including those by the authors, in fatigue studies. It is designed to lead the future directions and to provide a useful tool in many practical applications. It is intended to address to engineers, naval architects, research staff, professionals and graduates engaged in fatigue prevention design and survey ...

The effect of using genealogy-based haplotypes for genomic prediction.

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Edriss, Vahid; Fernando, Rohan L; Su, Guosheng; Lund, Mogens S; Guldbrandtsen, Bernt

2013-03-06

Genomic prediction uses two sources of information: linkage disequilibrium between markers and quantitative trait loci, and additive genetic relationships between individuals. One way to increase the accuracy of genomic prediction is to capture more linkage disequilibrium by regression on haplotypes instead of regression on individual markers. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction using haplotypes based on local genealogy information. A total of 4429 Danish Holstein bulls were genotyped with the 50K SNP chip. Haplotypes were constructed using local genealogical trees. Effects of haplotype covariates were estimated with two types of prediction models: (1) assuming that effects had the same distribution for all haplotype covariates, i.e. the GBLUP method and (2) assuming that a large proportion (π) of the haplotype covariates had zero effect, i.e. a Bayesian mixture method. About 7.5 times more covariate effects were estimated when fitting haplotypes based on local genealogical trees compared to fitting individuals markers. Genealogy-based haplotype clustering slightly increased the accuracy of genomic prediction and, in some cases, decreased the bias of prediction. With the Bayesian method, accuracy of prediction was less sensitive to parameter π when fitting haplotypes compared to fitting markers. Use of haplotypes based on genealogy can slightly increase the accuracy of genomic prediction. Improved methods to cluster the haplotypes constructed from local genealogy could lead to additional gains in accuracy.

Predicting Metabolic Syndrome Using the Random Forest Method

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Apilak Worachartcheewan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Aims. This study proposes a computational method for determining the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS and to predict its occurrence using the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III criteria. The Random Forest (RF method is also applied to identify significant health parameters. Materials and Methods. We used data from 5,646 adults aged between 18–78 years residing in Bangkok who had received an annual health check-up in 2008. MS was identified using the NCEP ATP III criteria. The RF method was applied to predict the occurrence of MS and to identify important health parameters surrounding this disorder. Results. The overall prevalence of MS was 23.70% (34.32% for males and 17.74% for females. RF accuracy for predicting MS in an adult Thai population was 98.11%. Further, based on RF, triglyceride levels were the most important health parameter associated with MS. Conclusion. RF was shown to predict MS in an adult Thai population with an accuracy >98% and triglyceride levels were identified as the most informative variable associated with MS. Therefore, using RF to predict MS may be potentially beneficial in identifying MS status for preventing the development of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases.

Prediction of allosteric sites on protein surfaces with an elastic-network-model-based thermodynamic method.

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Su, Ji Guo; Qi, Li Sheng; Li, Chun Hua; Zhu, Yan Ying; Du, Hui Jing; Hou, Yan Xue; Hao, Rui; Wang, Ji Hua

2014-08-01

Allostery is a rapid and efficient way in many biological processes to regulate protein functions, where binding of an effector at the allosteric site alters the activity and function at a distant active site. Allosteric regulation of protein biological functions provides a promising strategy for novel drug design. However, how to effectively identify the allosteric sites remains one of the major challenges for allosteric drug design. In the present work, a thermodynamic method based on the elastic network model was proposed to predict the allosteric sites on the protein surface. In our method, the thermodynamic coupling between the allosteric and active sites was considered, and then the allosteric sites were identified as those where the binding of an effector molecule induces a large change in the binding free energy of the protein with its ligand. Using the proposed method, two proteins, i.e., the 70 kD heat shock protein (Hsp70) and GluA2 alpha-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole propionic acid (AMPA) receptor, were studied and the allosteric sites on the protein surface were successfully identified. The predicted results are consistent with the available experimental data, which indicates that our method is a simple yet effective approach for the identification of allosteric sites on proteins.

A novel method for predicting activity of cis-regulatory modules, based on a diverse training set.

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Yang, Wei; Sinha, Saurabh

2017-01-01

With the rapid emergence of technologies for locating cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) genome-wide, the next pressing challenge is to assign precise functions to each CRM, i.e. to determine the spatiotemporal domains or cell-types where it drives expression. A popular approach to this task is to model the typical k-mer composition of a set of CRMs known to drive a common expression pattern, and assign that pattern to other CRMs exhibiting a similar k-mer composition. This approach does not rely on prior knowledge of transcription factors relevant to the CRM or their binding motifs, and is thus more widely applicable than motif-based methods for predicting CRM activity, but is also prone to false positive predictions. We present a novel strategy to improve the above-mentioned approach: to predict if a CRM drives a specific gene expression pattern, assess not only how similar the CRM is to other CRMs with similar activity but also to CRMs with distinct activities. We use a state-of-the-art statistical method to quantify a CRM's sequence similarity to many different training sets of CRMs, and employ a classification algorithm to integrate these similarity scores into a single prediction of the CRM's activity. This strategy is shown to significantly improve CRM activity prediction over current approaches. Our implementation of the new method, called IMMBoost, is freely available as source code, at https://github.com/weiyangedward/IMMBoost CONTACT: sinhas@illinois.eduSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A simple fracture energy prediction method for fiber network based on its morphological features extracted by X-ray tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Xiang; Wang, Qinghui; Zhou, Wei; Li, Jingrong

2013-01-01

The fracture behavior of a novel porous metal fiber sintered sheet (PMFSS) was predicted using a semi-empirical method combining the knowledge of its morphological characteristics and micro-mechanical responses. The morphological characteristics were systematically summarized based on the analysis of the topologically identical skeleton representation extracted from the X-ray tomography images. The analytical model firstly proposed by Tan et al. [1] was further modified according to the experimental observations from both tensile tests of single fibers and sintered fiber sheets, which built the coupling of single fiber segment and fiber network in terms of fracture energy using a simple prediction method. The efficacy of the prediction model was verified by comparing the predicted results to the experimental measurements. The prediction error that arose at high porosity was analyzed through fiber orientation distribution. Moreover, the tensile fracture process evolving from single fiber segments at micro-scale to the global mechanical performance was investigated

Evaluation and comparison of mammalian subcellular localization prediction methods

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Fink J Lynn

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Determination of the subcellular location of a protein is essential to understanding its biochemical function. This information can provide insight into the function of hypothetical or novel proteins. These data are difficult to obtain experimentally but have become especially important since many whole genome sequencing projects have been finished and many resulting protein sequences are still lacking detailed functional information. In order to address this paucity of data, many computational prediction methods have been developed. However, these methods have varying levels of accuracy and perform differently based on the sequences that are presented to the underlying algorithm. It is therefore useful to compare these methods and monitor their performance. Results In order to perform a comprehensive survey of prediction methods, we selected only methods that accepted large batches of protein sequences, were publicly available, and were able to predict localization to at least nine of the major subcellular locations (nucleus, cytosol, mitochondrion, extracellular region, plasma membrane, Golgi apparatus, endoplasmic reticulum (ER, peroxisome, and lysosome. The selected methods were CELLO, MultiLoc, Proteome Analyst, pTarget and WoLF PSORT. These methods were evaluated using 3763 mouse proteins from SwissProt that represent the source of the training sets used in development of the individual methods. In addition, an independent evaluation set of 2145 mouse proteins from LOCATE with a bias towards the subcellular localization underrepresented in SwissProt was used. The sensitivity and specificity were calculated for each method and compared to a theoretical value based on what might be observed by random chance. Conclusion No individual method had a sufficient level of sensitivity across both evaluation sets that would enable reliable application to hypothetical proteins. All methods showed lower performance on the LOCATE

The energetic cost of walking: a comparison of predictive methods.

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Patricia Ann Kramer

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The energy that animals devote to locomotion has been of intense interest to biologists for decades and two basic methodologies have emerged to predict locomotor energy expenditure: those based on metabolic and those based on mechanical energy. Metabolic energy approaches share the perspective that prediction of locomotor energy expenditure should be based on statistically significant proxies of metabolic function, while mechanical energy approaches, which derive from many different perspectives, focus on quantifying the energy of movement. Some controversy exists as to which mechanical perspective is "best", but from first principles all mechanical methods should be equivalent if the inputs to the simulation are of similar quality. Our goals in this paper are 1 to establish the degree to which the various methods of calculating mechanical energy are correlated, and 2 to investigate to what degree the prediction methods explain the variation in energy expenditure. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use modern humans as the model organism in this experiment because their data are readily attainable, but the methodology is appropriate for use in other species. Volumetric oxygen consumption and kinematic and kinetic data were collected on 8 adults while walking at their self-selected slow, normal and fast velocities. Using hierarchical statistical modeling via ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood techniques, the predictive ability of several metabolic and mechanical approaches were assessed. We found that all approaches are correlated and that the mechanical approaches explain similar amounts of the variation in metabolic energy expenditure. Most methods predict the variation within an individual well, but are poor at accounting for variation between individuals. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that the choice of predictive method is dependent on the question(s of interest and the data available for use as inputs. Although we

The energetic cost of walking: a comparison of predictive methods.

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Kramer, Patricia Ann; Sylvester, Adam D

2011-01-01

The energy that animals devote to locomotion has been of intense interest to biologists for decades and two basic methodologies have emerged to predict locomotor energy expenditure: those based on metabolic and those based on mechanical energy. Metabolic energy approaches share the perspective that prediction of locomotor energy expenditure should be based on statistically significant proxies of metabolic function, while mechanical energy approaches, which derive from many different perspectives, focus on quantifying the energy of movement. Some controversy exists as to which mechanical perspective is "best", but from first principles all mechanical methods should be equivalent if the inputs to the simulation are of similar quality. Our goals in this paper are 1) to establish the degree to which the various methods of calculating mechanical energy are correlated, and 2) to investigate to what degree the prediction methods explain the variation in energy expenditure. We use modern humans as the model organism in this experiment because their data are readily attainable, but the methodology is appropriate for use in other species. Volumetric oxygen consumption and kinematic and kinetic data were collected on 8 adults while walking at their self-selected slow, normal and fast velocities. Using hierarchical statistical modeling via ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood techniques, the predictive ability of several metabolic and mechanical approaches were assessed. We found that all approaches are correlated and that the mechanical approaches explain similar amounts of the variation in metabolic energy expenditure. Most methods predict the variation within an individual well, but are poor at accounting for variation between individuals. Our results indicate that the choice of predictive method is dependent on the question(s) of interest and the data available for use as inputs. Although we used modern humans as our model organism, these results can be extended

A New Navigation Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Method Based on Modified Clock-bias Quadratic Polynomial Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y. P.; Lu, Z. P.; Sun, D. S.; Wang, N.

2016-01-01

In order to better express the characteristics of satellite clock bias (SCB) and improve SCB prediction precision, this paper proposed a new SCB prediction model which can take physical characteristics of space-borne atomic clock, the cyclic variation, and random part of SCB into consideration. First, the new model employs a quadratic polynomial model with periodic items to fit and extract the trend term and cyclic term of SCB; then based on the characteristics of fitting residuals, a time series ARIMA ~(Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is used to model the residuals; eventually, the results from the two models are combined to obtain final SCB prediction values. At last, this paper uses precise SCB data from IGS (International GNSS Service) to conduct prediction tests, and the results show that the proposed model is effective and has better prediction performance compared with the quadratic polynomial model, grey model, and ARIMA model. In addition, the new method can also overcome the insufficiency of the ARIMA model in model recognition and order determination.

ANFIS Based Time Series Prediction Method of Bank Cash Flow Optimized by Adaptive Population Activity PSO Algorithm

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Jie-Sheng Wang

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In order to improve the accuracy and real-time of all kinds of information in the cash business, and solve the problem which accuracy and stability is not high of the data linkage between cash inventory forecasting and cash management information in the commercial bank, a hybrid learning algorithm is proposed based on adaptive population activity particle swarm optimization (APAPSO algorithm combined with the least squares method (LMS to optimize the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS model parameters. Through the introduction of metric function of population diversity to ensure the diversity of population and adaptive changes in inertia weight and learning factors, the optimization ability of the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm is improved, which avoids the premature convergence problem of the PSO algorithm. The simulation comparison experiments are carried out with BP-LMS algorithm and standard PSO-LMS by adopting real commercial banks’ cash flow data to verify the effectiveness of the proposed time series prediction of bank cash flow based on improved PSO-ANFIS optimization method. Simulation results show that the optimization speed is faster and the prediction accuracy is higher.

Pep-3D-Search: a method for B-cell epitope prediction based on mimotope analysis.

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Huang, Yan Xin; Bao, Yong Li; Guo, Shu Yan; Wang, Yan; Zhou, Chun Guang; Li, Yu Xin

2008-12-16

The prediction of conformational B-cell epitopes is one of the most important goals in immunoinformatics. The solution to this problem, even if approximate, would help in designing experiments to precisely map the residues of interaction between an antigen and an antibody. Consequently, this area of research has received considerable attention from immunologists, structural biologists and computational biologists. Phage-displayed random peptide libraries are powerful tools used to obtain mimotopes that are selected by binding to a given monoclonal antibody (mAb) in a similar way to the native epitope. These mimotopes can be considered as functional epitope mimics. Mimotope analysis based methods can predict not only linear but also conformational epitopes and this has been the focus of much research in recent years. Though some algorithms based on mimotope analysis have been proposed, the precise localization of the interaction site mimicked by the mimotopes is still a challenging task. In this study, we propose a method for B-cell epitope prediction based on mimotope analysis called Pep-3D-Search. Given the 3D structure of an antigen and a set of mimotopes (or a motif sequence derived from the set of mimotopes), Pep-3D-Search can be used in two modes: mimotope or motif. To evaluate the performance of Pep-3D-Search to predict epitopes from a set of mimotopes, 10 epitopes defined by crystallography were compared with the predicted results from a Pep-3D-Search: the average Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), sensitivity and precision were 0.1758, 0.3642 and 0.6948. Compared with other available prediction algorithms, Pep-3D-Search showed comparable MCC, specificity and precision, and could provide novel, rational results. To verify the capability of Pep-3D-Search to align a motif sequence to a 3D structure for predicting epitopes, 6 test cases were used. The predictive performance of Pep-3D-Search was demonstrated to be superior to that of other similar programs

Performance of local information-based link prediction: a sampling perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jichang; Feng, Xu; Dong, Li; Liang, Xiao; Xu, Ke

2012-08-01

Link prediction is pervasively employed to uncover the missing links in the snapshots of real-world networks, which are usually obtained through different kinds of sampling methods. In the previous literature, in order to evaluate the performance of the prediction, known edges in the sampled snapshot are divided into the training set and the probe set randomly, without considering the underlying sampling approaches. However, different sampling methods might lead to different missing links, especially for the biased ways. For this reason, random partition-based evaluation of performance is no longer convincing if we take the sampling method into account. In this paper, we try to re-evaluate the performance of local information-based link predictions through sampling method governed division of the training set and the probe set. It is interesting that we find that for different sampling methods, each prediction approach performs unevenly. Moreover, most of these predictions perform weakly when the sampling method is biased, which indicates that the performance of these methods might have been overestimated in the prior works.

A novel method of predicting microRNA-disease associations based on microRNA, disease, gene and environment factor networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Wei; Lan, Wei; Zhong, Jiancheng; Wang, Jianxin; Pan, Yi

2017-07-15

MicroRNAs have been reported to have close relationship with diseases due to their deregulation of the expression of target mRNAs. Detecting disease-related microRNAs is helpful for disease therapies. With the development of high throughput experimental techniques, a large number of microRNAs have been sequenced. However, it is still a big challenge to identify which microRNAs are related to diseases. Recently, researchers are interesting in combining multiple-biological information to identify the associations between microRNAs and diseases. In this work, we have proposed a novel method to predict the microRNA-disease associations based on four biological properties. They are microRNA, disease, gene and environment factor. Compared with previous methods, our method makes predictions not only by using the prior knowledge of associations among microRNAs, disease, environment factors and genes, but also by using the internal relationship among these biological properties. We constructed four biological networks based on the similarity of microRNAs, diseases, environment factors and genes, respectively. Then random walking was implemented on the four networks unequally. In the walking course, the associations can be inferred from the neighbors in the same networks. Meanwhile the association information can be transferred from one network to another. The results of experiment showed that our method achieved better prediction performance than other existing state-of-the-art methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of four statistical and machine learning methods for crash severity prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh; Khattak, Aemal

2017-11-01

Crash severity prediction models enable different agencies to predict the severity of a reported crash with unknown severity or the severity of crashes that may be expected to occur sometime in the future. This paper had three main objectives: comparison of the performance of four statistical and machine learning methods including Multinomial Logit (MNL), Nearest Neighbor Classification (NNC), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests (RF), in predicting traffic crash severity; developing a crash costs-based approach for comparison of crash severity prediction methods; and investigating the effects of data clustering methods comprising K-means Clustering (KC) and Latent Class Clustering (LCC), on the performance of crash severity prediction models. The 2012-2015 reported crash data from Nebraska, United States was obtained and two-vehicle crashes were extracted as the analysis data. The dataset was split into training/estimation (2012-2014) and validation (2015) subsets. The four prediction methods were trained/estimated using the training/estimation dataset and the correct prediction rates for each crash severity level, overall correct prediction rate and a proposed crash costs-based accuracy measure were obtained for the validation dataset. The correct prediction rates and the proposed approach showed NNC had the best prediction performance in overall and in more severe crashes. RF and SVM had the next two sufficient performances and MNL was the weakest method. Data clustering did not affect the prediction results of SVM, but KC improved the prediction performance of MNL, NNC and RF, while LCC caused improvement in MNL and RF but weakened the performance of NNC. Overall correct prediction rate had almost the exact opposite results compared to the proposed approach, showing that neglecting the crash costs can lead to misjudgment in choosing the right prediction method. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Power Transformer Operating State Prediction Method Based on an LSTM Network

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Hui Song

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The state of transformer equipment is usually manifested through a variety of information. The characteristic information will change with different types of equipment defects/faults, location, severity, and other factors. For transformer operating state prediction and fault warning, the key influencing factors of the transformer panorama information are analyzed. The degree of relative deterioration is used to characterize the deterioration of the transformer state. The membership relationship between the relative deterioration degree of each indicator and the transformer state is obtained through fuzzy processing. Through the long short-term memory (LSTM network, the evolution of the transformer status is extracted, and a data-driven state prediction model is constructed to realize preliminary warning of a potential fault of the equipment. Through the LSTM network, the quantitative index and qualitative index are organically combined in order to perceive the corresponding relationship between the characteristic parameters and the operating state of the transformer. The results of different time-scale prediction cases show that the proposed method can effectively predict the operation status of power transformers and accurately reflect their status.

Knowledge-based Fragment Binding Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Grace W.; Altman, Russ B.

2014-01-01

Target-based drug discovery must assess many drug-like compounds for potential activity. Focusing on low-molecular-weight compounds (fragments) can dramatically reduce the chemical search space. However, approaches for determining protein-fragment interactions have limitations. Experimental assays are time-consuming, expensive, and not always applicable. At the same time, computational approaches using physics-based methods have limited accuracy. With increasing high-resolution structural data for protein-ligand complexes, there is now an opportunity for data-driven approaches to fragment binding prediction. We present FragFEATURE, a machine learning approach to predict small molecule fragments preferred by a target protein structure. We first create a knowledge base of protein structural environments annotated with the small molecule substructures they bind. These substructures have low-molecular weight and serve as a proxy for fragments. FragFEATURE then compares the structural environments within a target protein to those in the knowledge base to retrieve statistically preferred fragments. It merges information across diverse ligands with shared substructures to generate predictions. Our results demonstrate FragFEATURE's ability to rediscover fragments corresponding to the ligand bound with 74% precision and 82% recall on average. For many protein targets, it identifies high scoring fragments that are substructures of known inhibitors. FragFEATURE thus predicts fragments that can serve as inputs to fragment-based drug design or serve as refinement criteria for creating target-specific compound libraries for experimental or computational screening. PMID:24762971

Protein-Protein Interactions Prediction Based on Iterative Clique Extension with Gene Ontology Filtering

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Lei Yang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Cliques (maximal complete subnets in protein-protein interaction (PPI network are an important resource used to analyze protein complexes and functional modules. Clique-based methods of predicting PPI complement the data defection from biological experiments. However, clique-based predicting methods only depend on the topology of network. The false-positive and false-negative interactions in a network usually interfere with prediction. Therefore, we propose a method combining clique-based method of prediction and gene ontology (GO annotations to overcome the shortcoming and improve the accuracy of predictions. According to different GO correcting rules, we generate two predicted interaction sets which guarantee the quality and quantity of predicted protein interactions. The proposed method is applied to the PPI network from the Database of Interacting Proteins (DIP and most of the predicted interactions are verified by another biological database, BioGRID. The predicted protein interactions are appended to the original protein network, which leads to clique extension and shows the significance of biological meaning.

The effect of genealogy-based haplotypes on genomic prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Edriss, Vahid; Fernando, Rohan L.; Su, Guosheng

2013-01-01

on haplotypes instead of regression on individual markers. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction using haplotypes based on local genealogy information. Methods A total of 4429 Danish Holstein bulls were genotyped with the 50K SNP chip. Haplotypes were constructed using...... local genealogical trees. Effects of haplotype covariates were estimated with two types of prediction models: (1) assuming that effects had the same distribution for all haplotype covariates, i.e. the GBLUP method and (2) assuming that a large proportion (pi) of the haplotype covariates had zero effect......, i.e. a Bayesian mixture method. Results About 7.5 times more covariate effects were estimated when fitting haplotypes based on local genealogical trees compared to fitting individuals markers. Genealogy-based haplotype clustering slightly increased the accuracy of genomic prediction and, in some...

A critical pressure based panel method for prediction of unsteady loading of marine propellers under cavitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, P.; Bose, N.; Colbourne, B.

2002-01-01

A simple numerical procedure is established and implemented into a time domain panel method to predict hydrodynamic performance of marine propellers with sheet cavitation. This paper describes the numerical formulations and procedures to construct this integration. Predicted hydrodynamic loads were compared with both a previous numerical model and experimental measurements for a propeller in steady flow. The current method gives a substantial improvement in thrust and torque coefficient prediction over a previous numerical method at low cavitation numbers of less than 2.0, where severe cavitation occurs. Predicted pressure coefficient distributions are also presented. (author)

Prediction Methods for Blood Glucose Concentration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

-day workshop on the design, use and evaluation of prediction methods for blood glucose concentration was held at the Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. One intention of the workshop was to bring together experts working in various fields on the same topic, in order to shed light from different angles...... discussions which allowed to receive direct feedback from the point of view of different disciplines. This book is based on the contributions of that workshop and is intended to convey an overview of the different aspects involved in the prediction. The individual chapters are based on the presentations given...... in the process of writing this book: All authors for their individual contributions, all reviewers of the book chapters, Daniela Hummer for the entire organization of the workshop, Boris Tasevski for helping with the typesetting, Florian Reiterer for his help editing the book, as well as Oliver Jackson and Karin...

Literature-based condition-specific miRNA-mRNA target prediction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minsik Oh

Full Text Available miRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by binding to the 3'-UTR of genes. Many recent studies have reported that miRNAs play important biological roles by regulating specific mRNAs or genes. Many sequence-based target prediction algorithms have been developed to predict miRNA targets. However, these methods are not designed for condition-specific target predictions and produce many false positives; thus, expression-based target prediction algorithms have been developed for condition-specific target predictions. A typical strategy to utilize expression data is to leverage the negative control roles of miRNAs on genes. To control false positives, a stringent cutoff value is typically set, but in this case, these methods tend to reject many true target relationships, i.e., false negatives. To overcome these limitations, additional information should be utilized. The literature is probably the best resource that we can utilize. Recent literature mining systems compile millions of articles with experiments designed for specific biological questions, and the systems provide a function to search for specific information. To utilize the literature information, we used a literature mining system, BEST, that automatically extracts information from the literature in PubMed and that allows the user to perform searches of the literature with any English words. By integrating omics data analysis methods and BEST, we developed Context-MMIA, a miRNA-mRNA target prediction method that combines expression data analysis results and the literature information extracted based on the user-specified context. In the pathway enrichment analysis using genes included in the top 200 miRNA-targets, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods that we tested. In another test on whether prediction methods can re-produce experimentally validated target relationships, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction

Methods for early prediction of lactation flow in Holstein heifers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vesna Gantner

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research was to define methods for early prediction (based on I. milk control record of lactation flow in Holstein heifers as well as to choose optimal one in terms of prediction fit and application simplicity. Total of 304,569 daily yield records automatically recorded on a 1,136 first lactation Holstein cows, from March 2003 till August 2008., were included in analysis. According to the test date, calving date, the age at first calving, lactation stage when I. milk control occurred and to the average milk yield in first 25th, T1 (and 25th-45th, T2 lactation days, measuring monthcalving month-age-production-time-period subgroups were formed. The parameters of analysed nonlinear and linear methods were estimated for each defined subgroup. As models evaluation measures,adjusted coefficient of determination, and average and standard deviation of error were used. Considering obtained results, in terms of total variance explanation (R2 adj, the nonlinear Wood’s method showed superiority above the linear ones (Wilmink’s, Ali-Schaeffer’s and Guo-Swalve’s method in both time-period subgroups (T1 - 97.5 % of explained variability; T2 - 98.1 % of explained variability. Regarding the evaluation measures based on prediction error amount (eavg±eSD, the lowest average error of daily milk yield prediction (less than 0.005 kg/day, as well as of lactation milk yield prediction (less than 50 kg/lactation (T1 time-period subgroup and less than 30 kg/lactation (T2 time-period subgroup; were determined when Wood’s nonlinear prediction method were applied. Obtained results indicate that estimated Wood’s regression parameters could be used in routine work for early prediction of Holstein heifer’s lactation flow.

Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Lu

2014-11-01

Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

An ensemble method for predicting subnuclear localizations from primary protein structures.

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Guo Sheng Han

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Predicting protein subnuclear localization is a challenging problem. Some previous works based on non-sequence information including Gene Ontology annotations and kernel fusion have respective limitations. The aim of this work is twofold: one is to propose a novel individual feature extraction method; another is to develop an ensemble method to improve prediction performance using comprehensive information represented in the form of high dimensional feature vector obtained by 11 feature extraction methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A novel two-stage multiclass support vector machine is proposed to predict protein subnuclear localizations. It only considers those feature extraction methods based on amino acid classifications and physicochemical properties. In order to speed up our system, an automatic search method for the kernel parameter is used. The prediction performance of our method is evaluated on four datasets: Lei dataset, multi-localization dataset, SNL9 dataset and a new independent dataset. The overall accuracy of prediction for 6 localizations on Lei dataset is 75.2% and that for 9 localizations on SNL9 dataset is 72.1% in the leave-one-out cross validation, 71.7% for the multi-localization dataset and 69.8% for the new independent dataset, respectively. Comparisons with those existing methods show that our method performs better for both single-localization and multi-localization proteins and achieves more balanced sensitivities and specificities on large-size and small-size subcellular localizations. The overall accuracy improvements are 4.0% and 4.7% for single-localization proteins and 6.5% for multi-localization proteins. The reliability and stability of our classification model are further confirmed by permutation analysis. CONCLUSIONS: It can be concluded that our method is effective and valuable for predicting protein subnuclear localizations. A web server has been designed to implement the proposed method

Soft Computing Methods for Disulfide Connectivity Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Márquez-Chamorro, Alfonso E; Aguilar-Ruiz, Jesús S

2015-01-01

The problem of protein structure prediction (PSP) is one of the main challenges in structural bioinformatics. To tackle this problem, PSP can be divided into several subproblems. One of these subproblems is the prediction of disulfide bonds. The disulfide connectivity prediction problem consists in identifying which nonadjacent cysteines would be cross-linked from all possible candidates. Determining the disulfide bond connectivity between the cysteines of a protein is desirable as a previous step of the 3D PSP, as the protein conformational search space is highly reduced. The most representative soft computing approaches for the disulfide bonds connectivity prediction problem of the last decade are summarized in this paper. Certain aspects, such as the different methodologies based on soft computing approaches (artificial neural network or support vector machine) or features of the algorithms, are used for the classification of these methods.

Life prediction methods for the combined creep-fatigue endurance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wareing, J.; Lloyd, G.J.

1980-09-01

The basis and current status of development of the various approaches to the prediction of the combined creep-fatigue endurance are reviewed. It is concluded that an inadequate materials data base makes it difficult to draw sensible conclusions about the prediction capabilities of each of the available methods. Correlation with data for stainless steel 304 and 316 is presented. (U.K.)

Bayesian Methods for Predicting the Shape of Chinese Yam in Terms of Key Diameters

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Mitsunori Kayano

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes Bayesian methods for the shape estimation of Chinese yam (Dioscorea opposita using a few key diameters of yam. Shape prediction of yam is applicable to determining optimal cutoff positions of a yam for producing seed yams. Our Bayesian method, which is a combination of Bayesian estimation model and predictive model, enables automatic, rapid, and low-cost processing of yam. After the construction of the proposed models using a sample data set in Japan, the models provide whole shape prediction of yam based on only a few key diameters. The Bayesian method performed well on the shape prediction in terms of minimizing the mean squared error between measured shape and the prediction. In particular, a multiple regression method with key diameters at two fixed positions attained the highest performance for shape prediction. We have developed automatic, rapid, and low-cost yam-processing machines based on the Bayesian estimation model and predictive model. Development of such shape prediction approaches, including our Bayesian method, can be a valuable aid in reducing the cost and time in food processing.

Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

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J. Cho

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The APEC Climate Center (APCC produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1 the Simple Bias Correction (SBC method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2 the Moving Window Regression (MWR method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3 the Climate Index Regression (CIR method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4 the Integrated Time Regression (ITR method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

Comparison of selected methods of prediction of wine exports and imports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radka Šperková

2008-01-01

Full Text Available For prediction of future events, there exist a number of methods usable in managerial practice. Decision on which of them should be used in a particular situation depends not only on the amount and quality of input information, but also on a subjective managerial judgement. Paper performs a practical application and consequent comparison of results of two selected methods, which are statistical method and deductive method. Both methods were used for predicting wine exports and imports in (from the Czech Republic. Prediction was done in 2003 and it related to the economic years 2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2005/2006, and 2006/2007, within which it was compared with the real values of the given indicators.Within the deductive methods there were characterized the most important factors of external environment including the most important influence according to authors’ opinion, which was the integration of the Czech Republic into the EU from 1st May, 2004. On the contrary, the statistical method of time-series analysis did not regard the integration, which is comes out of its principle. Statistics only calculates based on data from the past, and cannot incorporate the influence of irregular future conditions, just as the EU integration. Because of this the prediction based on deductive method was more optimistic and more precise in terms of its difference from real development in the given field.

The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

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Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

2018-04-01

When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

Analysis of energy-based algorithms for RNA secondary structure prediction

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Hajiaghayi Monir

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background RNA molecules play critical roles in the cells of organisms, including roles in gene regulation, catalysis, and synthesis of proteins. Since RNA function depends in large part on its folded structures, much effort has been invested in developing accurate methods for prediction of RNA secondary structure from the base sequence. Minimum free energy (MFE predictions are widely used, based on nearest neighbor thermodynamic parameters of Mathews, Turner et al. or those of Andronescu et al. Some recently proposed alternatives that leverage partition function calculations find the structure with maximum expected accuracy (MEA or pseudo-expected accuracy (pseudo-MEA methods. Advances in prediction methods are typically benchmarked using sensitivity, positive predictive value and their harmonic mean, namely F-measure, on datasets of known reference structures. Since such benchmarks document progress in improving accuracy of computational prediction methods, it is important to understand how measures of accuracy vary as a function of the reference datasets and whether advances in algorithms or thermodynamic parameters yield statistically significant improvements. Our work advances such understanding for the MFE and (pseudo-MEA-based methods, with respect to the latest datasets and energy parameters. Results We present three main findings. First, using the bootstrap percentile method, we show that the average F-measure accuracy of the MFE and (pseudo-MEA-based algorithms, as measured on our largest datasets with over 2000 RNAs from diverse families, is a reliable estimate (within a 2% range with high confidence of the accuracy of a population of RNA molecules represented by this set. However, average accuracy on smaller classes of RNAs such as a class of 89 Group I introns used previously in benchmarking algorithm accuracy is not reliable enough to draw meaningful conclusions about the relative merits of the MFE and MEA-based algorithms

Blind Test of Physics-Based Prediction of Protein Structures

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Shell, M. Scott; Ozkan, S. Banu; Voelz, Vincent; Wu, Guohong Albert; Dill, Ken A.

2009-01-01

We report here a multiprotein blind test of a computer method to predict native protein structures based solely on an all-atom physics-based force field. We use the AMBER 96 potential function with an implicit (GB/SA) model of solvation, combined with replica-exchange molecular-dynamics simulations. Coarse conformational sampling is performed using the zipping and assembly method (ZAM), an approach that is designed to mimic the putative physical routes of protein folding. ZAM was applied to the folding of six proteins, from 76 to 112 monomers in length, in CASP7, a community-wide blind test of protein structure prediction. Because these predictions have about the same level of accuracy as typical bioinformatics methods, and do not utilize information from databases of known native structures, this work opens up the possibility of predicting the structures of membrane proteins, synthetic peptides, or other foldable polymers, for which there is little prior knowledge of native structures. This approach may also be useful for predicting physical protein folding routes, non-native conformations, and other physical properties from amino acid sequences. PMID:19186130

Computational prediction of drug-drug interactions based on drugs functional similarities.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferdousi, Reza; Safdari, Reza; Omidi, Yadollah

2017-06-01

Therapeutic activities of drugs are often influenced by co-administration of drugs that may cause inevitable drug-drug interactions (DDIs) and inadvertent side effects. Prediction and identification of DDIs are extremely vital for the patient safety and success of treatment modalities. A number of computational methods have been employed for the prediction of DDIs based on drugs structures and/or functions. Here, we report on a computational method for DDIs prediction based on functional similarity of drugs. The model was set based on key biological elements including carriers, transporters, enzymes and targets (CTET). The model was applied for 2189 approved drugs. For each drug, all the associated CTETs were collected, and the corresponding binary vectors were constructed to determine the DDIs. Various similarity measures were conducted to detect DDIs. Of the examined similarity methods, the inner product-based similarity measures (IPSMs) were found to provide improved prediction values. Altogether, 2,394,766 potential drug pairs interactions were studied. The model was able to predict over 250,000 unknown potential DDIs. Upon our findings, we propose the current method as a robust, yet simple and fast, universal in silico approach for identification of DDIs. We envision that this proposed method can be used as a practical technique for the detection of possible DDIs based on the functional similarities of drugs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Experimental validation of alternate integral-formulation method for predicting acoustic radiation based on particle velocity measurements.

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Ni, Zhi; Wu, Sean F

2010-09-01

This paper presents experimental validation of an alternate integral-formulation method (AIM) for predicting acoustic radiation from an arbitrary structure based on the particle velocities specified on a hypothetical surface enclosing the target source. Both the normal and tangential components of the particle velocity on this hypothetical surface are measured and taken as the input to AIM codes to predict the acoustic pressures in both exterior and interior regions. The results obtained are compared with the benchmark values measured by microphones at the same locations. To gain some insight into practical applications of AIM, laser Doppler anemometer (LDA) and double hotwire sensor (DHS) are used as measurement devices to collect the particle velocities in the air. Measurement limitations of using LDA and DHS are discussed.

Reliability prediction system based on the failure rate model for electronic components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Woo; Lee, Hwa Ki

2008-01-01

Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. Among the reliability prediction methods are the statistical analysis based method, the similarity analysis method based on an external failure rate database, and the method based on the physics-of-failure model. In this study, we developed a system by which the reliability of electronic components can be predicted by creating a system for the statistical analysis method of predicting reliability most easily. The failure rate models that were applied are MILHDBK- 217F N2, PRISM, and Telcordia (Bellcore), and these were compared with the general purpose system in order to validate the effectiveness of the developed system. Being able to predict the reliability of electronic components from the stage of design, the system that we have developed is expected to contribute to enhancing the reliability of electronic components

Ordering decision-making methods on spare parts for a new aircraft fleet based on a two-sample prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yongquan, Sun; Xi, Chen; He, Ren; Yingchao, Jin; Quanwu, Liu

2016-01-01

Ordering decision-making on spare parts is crucial in maximizing aircraft utilization and minimizing total operating cost. Extensive researches on spare parts inventory management and optimal allocation could be found based on the amount of historical operation data or condition-monitoring data. However, it is challengeable to make an ordering decision on spare parts under the case of establishment of a fleet by introducing new aircraft with little historical data. In this paper, spare parts supporting policy and ordering decision-making policy for new aircraft fleet are analyzed firstly. Then two-sample predictions for a Weibull distribution and a Weibull process are incorporated into forecast of the first failure time and failure number during certain time period using Bayesian and classical method respectively, according to which the ordering time and ordering quantity for spare parts are identified. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate the methods of identifying the ordering time and ordering number of engine-driven pumps through forecasting the failure time and failure number, followed by a discussion on the impact of various fleet sizes on prediction results. This method has the potential to decide the ordering time and quantity of spare parts when a new aircraft fleet is established. - Highlights: • A modeling framework of ordering spare parts for a new fleet is proposed. • Models for ordering time and number are established based on two-sample prediction. • The computation of future failure time is simplified using Newtonian binomial law. • Comparison of the first failure time PDFs is used to identify process parameters. • Identification methods for spare parts are validated by Engine Driven Pump case study.

Silicon microgyroscope temperature prediction and control system based on BP neural network and Fuzzy-PID control method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xia, Dunzhu; Kong, Lun; Hu, Yiwei; Ni, Peizhen

2015-01-01

We present a novel silicon microgyroscope (SMG) temperature prediction and control system in a narrow space. As the temperature of SMG is closely related to its drive mode frequency and driving voltage, a temperature prediction model can be established based on the BP neural network. The simulation results demonstrate that the established temperature prediction model can estimate the temperature in the range of −40 to 60 °C with an error of less than ±0.05 °C. Then, a temperature control system based on the combination of fuzzy logic controller and the increment PID control method is proposed. The simulation results prove that the Fuzzy-PID controller has a smaller steady state error, less rise time and better robustness than the PID controller. This is validated by experimental results that show the Fuzzy-PID control method can achieve high precision in keeping the SMG temperature stable at 55 °C with an error of less than 0.2 °C. The scale factor can be stabilized at 8.7 mV/°/s with a temperature coefficient of 33 ppm °C −1 . ZRO (zero rate output) instability is decreased from 1.10°/s (9.5 mV) to 0.08°/s (0.7 mV) when the temperature control system is implemented over an ambient temperature range of −40 to 60 °C. (paper)

Prediction methods and databases within chemoinformatics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsdóttir, Svava Osk; Jørgensen, Flemming Steen; Brunak, Søren

2005-01-01

MOTIVATION: To gather information about available databases and chemoinformatics methods for prediction of properties relevant to the drug discovery and optimization process. RESULTS: We present an overview of the most important databases with 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional structural information...... about drugs and drug candidates, and of databases with relevant properties. Access to experimental data and numerical methods for selecting and utilizing these data is crucial for developing accurate predictive in silico models. Many interesting predictive methods for classifying the suitability...

Prediction of retention in micellar electrokinetic chromatography based on molecular structural descriptors by using the heuristic method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Huanxiang; Yao Xiaojun; Liu Mancang; Hu Zhide; Fan Botao

2006-01-01

Based on calculated molecular descriptors from the solutes' structure alone, the micelle-water partition coefficients of 103 solutes in micellar electrokinetic chromatography (MEKC) were predicted using the heuristic method (HM). At the same time, in order to show the influence of different molecular descriptors on the micelle-water partition of solute and to well understand the retention mechanism in MEKC, HM was used to build several multivariable linear models using different numbers of molecular descriptors. The best 6-parameter model gave the following results: the square of correlation coefficient R 2 was 0.958 and the mean relative error was 3.98%, which proved that the predictive values were in good agreement with the experimental results. From the built model, it can be concluded that the hydrophobic, H-bond, polar interactions of solutes with the micellar and aqueous phases are the main factors that determine their partitioning behavior. In addition, this paper provided a simple, fast and effective method for predicting the retention of the solutes in MEKC from their structures and gave some insight into structural features related to the retention of the solutes

NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

OpenAIRE

Jerzy Balicki; Piotr Dryja; Waldemar Korłub; Piotr Przybyłek; Maciej Tyszka; Marcin Zadroga; Marcin Zakidalski

2016-01-01

Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerzy Balicki

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

An influence function method based subsidence prediction program for longwall mining operations in inclined coal seams

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yi Luo; Jian-wei Cheng [West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV (United States). Department of Mining Engineering

2009-09-15

The distribution of the final surface subsidence basin induced by longwall operations in inclined coal seam could be significantly different from that in flat coal seam and demands special prediction methods. Though many empirical prediction methods have been developed, these methods are inflexible for varying geological and mining conditions. An influence function method has been developed to take the advantage of its fundamentally sound nature and flexibility. In developing this method, significant modifications have been made to the original Knothe function to produce an asymmetrical influence function. The empirical equations for final subsidence parameters derived from US subsidence data and Chinese empirical values have been incorporated into the mathematical models to improve the prediction accuracy. A corresponding computer program is developed. A number of subsidence cases for longwall mining operations in coal seams with varying inclination angles have been used to demonstrate the applicability of the developed subsidence prediction model. 9 refs., 8 figs.

Feature-Based and String-Based Models for Predicting RNA-Protein Interaction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donald Adjeroh

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this work, we study two approaches for the problem of RNA-Protein Interaction (RPI. In the first approach, we use a feature-based technique by combining extracted features from both sequences and secondary structures. The feature-based approach enhanced the prediction accuracy as it included much more available information about the RNA-protein pairs. In the second approach, we apply search algorithms and data structures to extract effective string patterns for prediction of RPI, using both sequence information (protein and RNA sequences, and structure information (protein and RNA secondary structures. This led to different string-based models for predicting interacting RNA-protein pairs. We show results that demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches, including comparative results against leading state-of-the-art methods.

Meta-path based heterogeneous combat network link prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jichao; Ge, Bingfeng; Yang, Kewei; Chen, Yingwu; Tan, Yuejin

2017-09-01

The combat system-of-systems in high-tech informative warfare, composed of many interconnected combat systems of different types, can be regarded as a type of complex heterogeneous network. Link prediction for heterogeneous combat networks (HCNs) is of significant military value, as it facilitates reconfiguring combat networks to represent the complex real-world network topology as appropriate with observed information. This paper proposes a novel integrated methodology framework called HCNMP (HCN link prediction based on meta-path) to predict multiple types of links simultaneously for an HCN. More specifically, the concept of HCN meta-paths is introduced, through which the HCNMP can accumulate information by extracting different features of HCN links for all the six defined types. Next, an HCN link prediction model, based on meta-path features, is built to predict all types of links of the HCN simultaneously. Then, the solution algorithm for the HCN link prediction model is proposed, in which the prediction results are obtained by iteratively updating with the newly predicted results until the results in the HCN converge or reach a certain maximum iteration number. Finally, numerical experiments on the dataset of a real HCN are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed HCNMP, in comparison with 30 baseline methods. The results show that the performance of the HCNMP is superior to those of the baseline methods.

Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauri, D D; Huss, A; Zimmermann, F; Kuehni, C E; Röösli, M

2013-10-01

Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of Protein–Protein Interactions by Evidence Combining Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ji-Wei Chang

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Most cellular functions involve proteins’ features based on their physical interactions with other partner proteins. Sketching a map of protein–protein interactions (PPIs is therefore an important inception step towards understanding the basics of cell functions. Several experimental techniques operating in vivo or in vitro have made significant contributions to screening a large number of protein interaction partners, especially high-throughput experimental methods. However, computational approaches for PPI predication supported by rapid accumulation of data generated from experimental techniques, 3D structure definitions, and genome sequencing have boosted the map sketching of PPIs. In this review, we shed light on in silico PPI prediction methods that integrate evidence from multiple sources, including evolutionary relationship, function annotation, sequence/structure features, network topology and text mining. These methods are developed for integration of multi-dimensional evidence, for designing the strategies to predict novel interactions, and for making the results consistent with the increase of prediction coverage and accuracy.

A Method to Predict the Structure and Stability of RNA/RNA Complexes.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xiaojun; Chen, Shi-Jie

2016-01-01

RNA/RNA interactions are essential for genomic RNA dimerization and regulation of gene expression. Intermolecular loop-loop base pairing is a widespread and functionally important tertiary structure motif in RNA machinery. However, computational prediction of intermolecular loop-loop base pairing is challenged by the entropy and free energy calculation due to the conformational constraint and the intermolecular interactions. In this chapter, we describe a recently developed statistical mechanics-based method for the prediction of RNA/RNA complex structures and stabilities. The method is based on the virtual bond RNA folding model (Vfold). The main emphasis in the method is placed on the evaluation of the entropy and free energy for the loops, especially tertiary kissing loops. The method also uses recursive partition function calculations and two-step screening algorithm for large, complicated structures of RNA/RNA complexes. As case studies, we use the HIV-1 Mal dimer and the siRNA/HIV-1 mutant (T4) to illustrate the method.

Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

2015-10-01

Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

Correction for the Hematocrit Bias in Dried Blood Spot Analysis Using a Nondestructive, Single-Wavelength Reflectance-Based Hematocrit Prediction Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Capiau, Sara; Wilk, Leah S; De Kesel, Pieter M M; Aalders, Maurice C G; Stove, Christophe P

2018-02-06

The hematocrit (Hct) effect is one of the most important hurdles currently preventing more widespread implementation of quantitative dried blood spot (DBS) analysis in a routine context. Indeed, the Hct may affect both the accuracy of DBS methods as well as the interpretation of DBS-based results. We previously developed a method to determine the Hct of a DBS based on its hemoglobin content using noncontact diffuse reflectance spectroscopy. Despite the ease with which the analysis can be performed (i.e., mere scanning of the DBS) and the good results that were obtained, the method did require a complicated algorithm to derive the total hemoglobin content from the DBS's reflectance spectrum. As the total hemoglobin was calculated as the sum of oxyhemoglobin, methemoglobin, and hemichrome, the three main hemoglobin derivatives formed in DBS upon aging, the reflectance spectrum needed to be unmixed to determine the quantity of each of these derivatives. We now simplified the method by only using the reflectance at a single wavelength, located at a quasi-isosbestic point in the reflectance curve. At this wavelength, assuming 1-to-1 stoichiometry of the aging reaction, the reflectance is insensitive to the hemoglobin degradation and only scales with the total amount of hemoglobin and, hence, the Hct. This simplified method was successfully validated. At each quality control level as well as at the limits of quantitation (i.e., 0.20 and 0.67) bias, intra- and interday imprecision were within 10%. Method reproducibility was excellent based on incurred sample reanalysis and surpassed the reproducibility of the original method. Furthermore, the influence of the volume spotted, the measurement location within the spot, as well as storage time and temperature were evaluated, showing no relevant impact of these parameters. Application to 233 patient samples revealed a good correlation between the Hct determined on whole blood and the predicted Hct determined on venous DBS. The

Predicting Charging Time of Battery Electric Vehicles Based on Regression and Time-Series Methods: A Case Study of Beijing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun Bi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Battery electric vehicles (BEVs reduce energy consumption and air pollution as compared with conventional vehicles. However, the limited driving range and potential long charging time of BEVs create new problems. Accurate charging time prediction of BEVs helps drivers determine travel plans and alleviate their range anxiety during trips. This study proposed a combined model for charging time prediction based on regression and time-series methods according to the actual data from BEVs operating in Beijing, China. After data analysis, a regression model was established by considering the charged amount for charging time prediction. Furthermore, a time-series method was adopted to calibrate the regression model, which significantly improved the fitting accuracy of the model. The parameters of the model were determined by using the actual data. Verification results confirmed the accuracy of the model and showed that the model errors were small. The proposed model can accurately depict the charging time characteristics of BEVs in Beijing.

Probability-based collaborative filtering model for predicting gene–disease associations

OpenAIRE

Zeng, Xiangxiang; Ding, Ningxiang; Rodríguez-Patón, Alfonso; Zou, Quan

2017-01-01

Background Accurately predicting pathogenic human genes has been challenging in recent research. Considering extensive gene–disease data verified by biological experiments, we can apply computational methods to perform accurate predictions with reduced time and expenses. Methods We propose a probability-based collaborative filtering model (PCFM) to predict pathogenic human genes. Several kinds of data sets, containing data of humans and data of other nonhuman species, are integrated in our mo...

Patient Similarity in Prediction Models Based on Health Data: A Scoping Review

Science.gov (United States)

Sharafoddini, Anis; Dubin, Joel A

2017-01-01

Background Physicians and health policy makers are required to make predictions during their decision making in various medical problems. Many advances have been made in predictive modeling toward outcome prediction, but these innovations target an average patient and are insufficiently adjustable for individual patients. One developing idea in this field is individualized predictive analytics based on patient similarity. The goal of this approach is to identify patients who are similar to an index patient and derive insights from the records of similar patients to provide personalized predictions.. Objective The aim is to summarize and review published studies describing computer-based approaches for predicting patients’ future health status based on health data and patient similarity, identify gaps, and provide a starting point for related future research. Methods The method involved (1) conducting the review by performing automated searches in Scopus, PubMed, and ISI Web of Science, selecting relevant studies by first screening titles and abstracts then analyzing full-texts, and (2) documenting by extracting publication details and information on context, predictors, missing data, modeling algorithm, outcome, and evaluation methods into a matrix table, synthesizing data, and reporting results. Results After duplicate removal, 1339 articles were screened in abstracts and titles and 67 were selected for full-text review. In total, 22 articles met the inclusion criteria. Within included articles, hospitals were the main source of data (n=10). Cardiovascular disease (n=7) and diabetes (n=4) were the dominant patient diseases. Most studies (n=18) used neighborhood-based approaches in devising prediction models. Two studies showed that patient similarity-based modeling outperformed population-based predictive methods. Conclusions Interest in patient similarity-based predictive modeling for diagnosis and prognosis has been growing. In addition to raw/coded health

Method for Predicting Solubilities of Solids in Mixed Solvents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ellegaard, Martin Dela; Abildskov, Jens; O'Connell, J. P.

2009-01-01

A method is presented for predicting solubilities of solid solutes in mixed solvents, based on excess Henry's law constants. The basis is statistical mechanical fluctuation solution theory for composition derivatives of solute/solvent infinite dilution activity coefficients. Suitable approximatio...

NAPR: a Cloud-Based Framework for Neuroanatomical Age Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Pardoe, Heath R; Kuzniecky, Ruben

2018-01-01

The availability of cloud computing services has enabled the widespread adoption of the "software as a service" (SaaS) approach for software distribution, which utilizes network-based access to applications running on centralized servers. In this paper we apply the SaaS approach to neuroimaging-based age prediction. Our system, named "NAPR" (Neuroanatomical Age Prediction using R), provides access to predictive modeling software running on a persistent cloud-based Amazon Web Services (AWS) compute instance. The NAPR framework allows external users to estimate the age of individual subjects using cortical thickness maps derived from their own locally processed T1-weighted whole brain MRI scans. As a demonstration of the NAPR approach, we have developed two age prediction models that were trained using healthy control data from the ABIDE, CoRR, DLBS and NKI Rockland neuroimaging datasets (total N = 2367, age range 6-89 years). The provided age prediction models were trained using (i) relevance vector machines and (ii) Gaussian processes machine learning methods applied to cortical thickness surfaces obtained using Freesurfer v5.3. We believe that this transparent approach to out-of-sample evaluation and comparison of neuroimaging age prediction models will facilitate the development of improved age prediction models and allow for robust evaluation of the clinical utility of these methods.

An initial investigation on developing a new method to predict short-term breast cancer risk based on deep learning technology

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Yuchen; Wang, Yunzhi; Yan, Shiju; Tan, Maxine; Cheng, Samuel; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2016-03-01

In order to establish a new personalized breast cancer screening paradigm, it is critically important to accurately predict the short-term risk of a woman having image-detectable cancer after a negative mammographic screening. In this study, we developed and tested a novel short-term risk assessment model based on deep learning method. During the experiment, a number of 270 "prior" negative screening cases was assembled. In the next sequential ("current") screening mammography, 135 cases were positive and 135 cases remained negative. These cases were randomly divided into a training set with 200 cases and a testing set with 70 cases. A deep learning based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) scheme was then developed for the risk assessment, which consists of two modules: adaptive feature identification module and risk prediction module. The adaptive feature identification module is composed of three pairs of convolution-max-pooling layers, which contains 20, 10, and 5 feature maps respectively. The risk prediction module is implemented by a multiple layer perception (MLP) classifier, which produces a risk score to predict the likelihood of the woman developing short-term mammography-detectable cancer. The result shows that the new CAD-based risk model yielded a positive predictive value of 69.2% and a negative predictive value of 74.2%, with a total prediction accuracy of 71.4%. This study demonstrated that applying a new deep learning technology may have significant potential to develop a new short-term risk predicting scheme with improved performance in detecting early abnormal symptom from the negative mammograms.

Multi-Objective Predictive Balancing Control of Battery Packs Based on Predictive Current

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenbiao Li

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Various balancing topology and control methods have been proposed for the inconsistency problem of battery packs. However, these strategies only focus on a single objective, ignore the mutual interaction among various factors and are only based on the external performance of the battery pack inconsistency, such as voltage balancing and state of charge (SOC balancing. To solve these problems, multi-objective predictive balancing control (MOPBC based on predictive current is proposed in this paper, namely, in the driving process of an electric vehicle, using predictive control to predict the battery pack output current the next time. Based on this information, the impact of the battery pack temperature caused by the output current can be obtained. Then, the influence is added to the battery pack balancing control, which makes the present degradation, temperature, and SOC imbalance achieve balance automatically due to the change of the output current the next moment. According to MOPBC, the simulation model of the balancing circuit is built with four cells in Matlab/Simulink. The simulation results show that MOPBC is not only better than the other traditional balancing control strategies but also reduces the energy loss in the balancing process.

A Novel Grey Wave Method for Predicting Total Chinese Trade Volume

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Kedong Yin

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The total trade volume of a country is an important way of appraising its international trade situation. A prediction based on trade volume will help enterprises arrange production efficiently and promote the sustainability of the international trade. Because the total Chinese trade volume fluctuates over time, this paper proposes a Grey wave forecasting model with a Hodrick–Prescott filter (HP filter to forecast it. This novel model first parses time series into long-term trend and short-term cycle. Second, the model uses a general GM (1,1 to predict the trend term and the Grey wave forecasting model to predict the cycle term. Empirical analysis shows that the improved Grey wave prediction method provides a much more accurate forecast than the basic Grey wave prediction method, achieving better prediction results than autoregressive moving average model (ARMA.

Method of critical power prediction based on film flow model coupled with subchannel analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomiyama, Akio; Yokomizo, Osamu; Yoshimoto, Yuichiro; Sugawara, Satoshi.

1988-01-01

A new method was developed to predict critical powers for a wide variety of BWR fuel bundle designs. This method couples subchannel analysis with a liquid film flow model, instead of taking the conventional way which couples subchannel analysis with critical heat flux correlations. Flow and quality distributions in a bundle are estimated by the subchannel analysis. Using these distributions, film flow rates along fuel rods are then calculated with the film flow model. Dryout is assumed to occur where one of the film flows disappears. This method is expected to give much better adaptability to variations in geometry, heat flux, flow rate and quality distributions than the conventional methods. In order to verify the method, critical power data under BWR conditions were analyzed. Measured and calculated critical powers agreed to within ±7%. Furthermore critical power data for a tight-latticed bundle obtained by LeTourneau et al. were compared with critical powers calculated by the present method and two conventional methods, CISE correlation and subchannel analysis coupled with the CISE correlation. It was confirmed that the present method can predict critical powers more accurately than the conventional methods. (author)

Nonparametric method for genomics-based prediction of performance of quantitative traits involving epistasis in plant breeding.

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Xiaochun Sun

Full Text Available Genomic selection (GS procedures have proven useful in estimating breeding value and predicting phenotype with genome-wide molecular marker information. However, issues of high dimensionality, multicollinearity, and the inability to deal effectively with epistasis can jeopardize accuracy and predictive ability. We, therefore, propose a new nonparametric method, pRKHS, which combines the features of supervised principal component analysis (SPCA and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS regression, with versions for traits with no/low epistasis, pRKHS-NE, to high epistasis, pRKHS-E. Instead of assigning a specific relationship to represent the underlying epistasis, the method maps genotype to phenotype in a nonparametric way, thus requiring fewer genetic assumptions. SPCA decreases the number of markers needed for prediction by filtering out low-signal markers with the optimal marker set determined by cross-validation. Principal components are computed from reduced marker matrix (called supervised principal components, SPC and included in the smoothing spline ANOVA model as independent variables to fit the data. The new method was evaluated in comparison with current popular methods for practicing GS, specifically RR-BLUP, BayesA, BayesB, as well as a newer method by Crossa et al., RKHS-M, using both simulated and real data. Results demonstrate that pRKHS generally delivers greater predictive ability, particularly when epistasis impacts trait expression. Beyond prediction, the new method also facilitates inferences about the extent to which epistasis influences trait expression.

Nonparametric method for genomics-based prediction of performance of quantitative traits involving epistasis in plant breeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Xiaochun; Ma, Ping; Mumm, Rita H

2012-01-01

Genomic selection (GS) procedures have proven useful in estimating breeding value and predicting phenotype with genome-wide molecular marker information. However, issues of high dimensionality, multicollinearity, and the inability to deal effectively with epistasis can jeopardize accuracy and predictive ability. We, therefore, propose a new nonparametric method, pRKHS, which combines the features of supervised principal component analysis (SPCA) and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) regression, with versions for traits with no/low epistasis, pRKHS-NE, to high epistasis, pRKHS-E. Instead of assigning a specific relationship to represent the underlying epistasis, the method maps genotype to phenotype in a nonparametric way, thus requiring fewer genetic assumptions. SPCA decreases the number of markers needed for prediction by filtering out low-signal markers with the optimal marker set determined by cross-validation. Principal components are computed from reduced marker matrix (called supervised principal components, SPC) and included in the smoothing spline ANOVA model as independent variables to fit the data. The new method was evaluated in comparison with current popular methods for practicing GS, specifically RR-BLUP, BayesA, BayesB, as well as a newer method by Crossa et al., RKHS-M, using both simulated and real data. Results demonstrate that pRKHS generally delivers greater predictive ability, particularly when epistasis impacts trait expression. Beyond prediction, the new method also facilitates inferences about the extent to which epistasis influences trait expression.

Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

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YE Wenming

2016-08-01

Full Text Available A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calculate the deformation response of high temperature component under a given load curve, finally the creep rupture life was determined according to the change trend of the responsive curve.The method was verified by durable test of TC11 titanium alloy notched specimens under 500 ℃, and was compared with the three creep rupture life prediction methods based on the small deformation analysis. Results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the high temperature creep response and long-term life of TC11 notched specimens, and the accuracy is better than that of the methods based on the average effective stress of notch ligament, the bone point stress and the fracture strain of the key point, which are all based on small deformation finite element analysis.

Prediction of Protein-Protein Interactions Related to Protein Complexes Based on Protein Interaction Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A method for predicting protein-protein interactions based on detected protein complexes is proposed to repair deficient interactions derived from high-throughput biological experiments. Protein complexes are pruned and decomposed into small parts based on the adaptive k-cores method to predict protein-protein interactions associated with the complexes. The proposed method is adaptive to protein complexes with different structure, number, and size of nodes in a protein-protein interaction network. Based on different complex sets detected by various algorithms, we can obtain different prediction sets of protein-protein interactions. The reliability of the predicted interaction sets is proved by using estimations with statistical tests and direct confirmation of the biological data. In comparison with the approaches which predict the interactions based on the cliques, the overlap of the predictions is small. Similarly, the overlaps among the predicted sets of interactions derived from various complex sets are also small. Thus, every predicted set of interactions may complement and improve the quality of the original network data. Meanwhile, the predictions from the proposed method replenish protein-protein interactions associated with protein complexes using only the network topology.

Deep-Learning-Based Drug-Target Interaction Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Ming; Zhang, Zhimin; Niu, Shaoyu; Sha, Haozhi; Yang, Ruihan; Yun, Yonghuan; Lu, Hongmei

2017-04-07

Identifying interactions between known drugs and targets is a major challenge in drug repositioning. In silico prediction of drug-target interaction (DTI) can speed up the expensive and time-consuming experimental work by providing the most potent DTIs. In silico prediction of DTI can also provide insights about the potential drug-drug interaction and promote the exploration of drug side effects. Traditionally, the performance of DTI prediction depends heavily on the descriptors used to represent the drugs and the target proteins. In this paper, to accurately predict new DTIs between approved drugs and targets without separating the targets into different classes, we developed a deep-learning-based algorithmic framework named DeepDTIs. It first abstracts representations from raw input descriptors using unsupervised pretraining and then applies known label pairs of interaction to build a classification model. Compared with other methods, it is found that DeepDTIs reaches or outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. The DeepDTIs can be further used to predict whether a new drug targets to some existing targets or whether a new target interacts with some existing drugs.

Safety prediction for basic components of safety-critical software based on static testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, H.S.; Seong, P.H.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this work is to develop a safety prediction method, with which we can predict the risk of software components based on static testing results at the early development stage. The predictive model combines the major factor with the quality factor for the components, which are calculated based on the measures proposed in this work. The application to a safety-critical software system demonstrates the feasibility of the safety prediction method. (authors)

FERAL : Network-based classifier with application to breast cancer outcome prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Allahyar, A.; De Ridder, J.

2015-01-01

Motivation: Breast cancer outcome prediction based on gene expression profiles is an important strategy for personalize patient care. To improve performance and consistency of discovered markers of the initial molecular classifiers, network-based outcome prediction methods (NOPs) have been proposed.

Research on cross - Project software defect prediction based on transfer learning

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ya; Ding, Xiaoming

2018-04-01

According to the two challenges in the prediction of cross-project software defects, the distribution differences between the source project and the target project dataset and the class imbalance in the dataset, proposing a cross-project software defect prediction method based on transfer learning, named NTrA. Firstly, solving the source project data's class imbalance based on the Augmented Neighborhood Cleaning Algorithm. Secondly, the data gravity method is used to give different weights on the basis of the attribute similarity of source project and target project data. Finally, a defect prediction model is constructed by using Trad boost algorithm. Experiments were conducted using data, come from NASA and SOFTLAB respectively, from a published PROMISE dataset. The results show that the method has achieved good values of recall and F-measure, and achieved good prediction results.

Customer churn prediction using a hybrid method and censored data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Customers are believed to be the main part of any organization’s assets and customer retention as well as customer churn management are important responsibilities of organizations. In today’s competitive environment, organization must do their best to retain their existing customers since attracting new customers cost significantly more than taking care of existing ones. In this paper, we present a hybrid method based on neural network and Cox regression analysis where neural network is used for outlier data and Cox regression method is implemented for prediction of future events. The proposed model of this paper has been implemented on some data and the results are compared based on five criteria including prediction accuracy, errors’ type I and II, root mean square error and mean absolute deviation. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper performs better than alternative methods.

Fully automated treatment planning for head and neck radiotherapy using a voxel-based dose prediction and dose mimicking method

Science.gov (United States)

McIntosh, Chris; Welch, Mattea; McNiven, Andrea; Jaffray, David A.; Purdie, Thomas G.

2017-08-01

Recent works in automated radiotherapy treatment planning have used machine learning based on historical treatment plans to infer the spatial dose distribution for a novel patient directly from the planning image. We present a probabilistic, atlas-based approach which predicts the dose for novel patients using a set of automatically selected most similar patients (atlases). The output is a spatial dose objective, which specifies the desired dose-per-voxel, and therefore replaces the need to specify and tune dose-volume objectives. Voxel-based dose mimicking optimization then converts the predicted dose distribution to a complete treatment plan with dose calculation using a collapsed cone convolution dose engine. In this study, we investigated automated planning for right-sided oropharaynx head and neck patients treated with IMRT and VMAT. We compare four versions of our dose prediction pipeline using a database of 54 training and 12 independent testing patients by evaluating 14 clinical dose evaluation criteria. Our preliminary results are promising and demonstrate that automated methods can generate comparable dose distributions to clinical. Overall, automated plans achieved an average of 0.6% higher dose for target coverage evaluation criteria, and 2.4% lower dose at the organs at risk criteria levels evaluated compared with clinical. There was no statistically significant difference detected in high-dose conformity between automated and clinical plans as measured by the conformation number. Automated plans achieved nine more unique criteria than clinical across the 12 patients tested and automated plans scored a significantly higher dose at the evaluation limit for two high-risk target coverage criteria and a significantly lower dose in one critical organ maximum dose. The novel dose prediction method with dose mimicking can generate complete treatment plans in 12-13 min without user interaction. It is a promising approach for fully automated treatment

Predicting respiratory motion signals for image-guided radiotherapy using multi-step linear methods (MULIN)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ernst, Floris; Schweikard, Achim

2008-01-01

Forecasting of respiration motion in image-guided radiotherapy requires algorithms that can accurately and efficiently predict target location. Improved methods for respiratory motion forecasting were developed and tested. MULIN, a new family of prediction algorithms based on linear expansions of the prediction error, was developed and tested. Computer-generated data with a prediction horizon of 150 ms was used for testing in simulation experiments. MULIN was compared to Least Mean Squares-based predictors (LMS; normalized LMS, nLMS; wavelet-based multiscale autoregression, wLMS) and a multi-frequency Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) approach. The in vivo performance of the algorithms was tested on data sets of patients who underwent radiotherapy. The new MULIN methods are highly competitive, outperforming the LMS and the EKF prediction algorithms in real-world settings and performing similarly to optimized nLMS and wLMS prediction algorithms. On simulated, periodic data the MULIN algorithms are outperformed only by the EKF approach due to its inherent advantage in predicting periodic signals. In the presence of noise, the MULIN methods significantly outperform all other algorithms. The MULIN family of algorithms is a feasible tool for the prediction of respiratory motion, performing as well as or better than conventional algorithms while requiring significantly lower computational complexity. The MULIN algorithms are of special importance wherever high-speed prediction is required. (orig.)

Predicting respiratory motion signals for image-guided radiotherapy using multi-step linear methods (MULIN)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ernst, Floris; Schweikard, Achim [University of Luebeck, Institute for Robotics and Cognitive Systems, Luebeck (Germany)

2008-06-15

Forecasting of respiration motion in image-guided radiotherapy requires algorithms that can accurately and efficiently predict target location. Improved methods for respiratory motion forecasting were developed and tested. MULIN, a new family of prediction algorithms based on linear expansions of the prediction error, was developed and tested. Computer-generated data with a prediction horizon of 150 ms was used for testing in simulation experiments. MULIN was compared to Least Mean Squares-based predictors (LMS; normalized LMS, nLMS; wavelet-based multiscale autoregression, wLMS) and a multi-frequency Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) approach. The in vivo performance of the algorithms was tested on data sets of patients who underwent radiotherapy. The new MULIN methods are highly competitive, outperforming the LMS and the EKF prediction algorithms in real-world settings and performing similarly to optimized nLMS and wLMS prediction algorithms. On simulated, periodic data the MULIN algorithms are outperformed only by the EKF approach due to its inherent advantage in predicting periodic signals. In the presence of noise, the MULIN methods significantly outperform all other algorithms. The MULIN family of algorithms is a feasible tool for the prediction of respiratory motion, performing as well as or better than conventional algorithms while requiring significantly lower computational complexity. The MULIN algorithms are of special importance wherever high-speed prediction is required. (orig.)

River Flow Prediction Using the Nearest Neighbor Probabilistic Ensemble Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Sanikhani

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: In the recent years, researchers interested on probabilistic forecasting of hydrologic variables such river flow.A probabilistic approach aims at quantifying the prediction reliability through a probability distribution function or a prediction interval for the unknown future value. The evaluation of the uncertainty associated to the forecast is seen as a fundamental information, not only to correctly assess the prediction, but also to compare forecasts from different methods and to evaluate actions and decisions conditionally on the expected values. Several probabilistic approaches have been proposed in the literature, including (1 methods that use resampling techniques to assess parameter and model uncertainty, such as the Metropolis algorithm or the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE methodology for an application to runoff prediction, (2 methods based on processing the forecast errors of past data to produce the probability distributions of future values and (3 methods that evaluate how the uncertainty propagates from the rainfall forecast to the river discharge prediction, as the Bayesian forecasting system. Materials and Methods: In this study, two different probabilistic methods are used for river flow prediction.Then the uncertainty related to the forecast is quantified. One approach is based on linear predictors and in the other, nearest neighbor was used. The nonlinear probabilistic ensemble can be used for nonlinear time series analysis using locally linear predictors, while NNPE utilize a method adapted for one step ahead nearest neighbor methods. In this regard, daily river discharge (twelve years of Dizaj and Mashin Stations on Baranduz-Chay basin in west Azerbijan and Zard-River basin in Khouzestan provinces were used, respectively. The first six years of data was applied for fitting the model. The next three years was used to calibration and the remained three yeas utilized for testing the models

Link Prediction in Evolving Networks Based on Popularity of Nodes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tong; He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Fu, Zhong-Qian

2017-08-02

Link prediction aims to uncover the underlying relationship behind networks, which could be utilized to predict missing edges or identify the spurious edges. The key issue of link prediction is to estimate the likelihood of potential links in networks. Most classical static-structure based methods ignore the temporal aspects of networks, limited by the time-varying features, such approaches perform poorly in evolving networks. In this paper, we propose a hypothesis that the ability of each node to attract links depends not only on its structural importance, but also on its current popularity (activeness), since active nodes have much more probability to attract future links. Then a novel approach named popularity based structural perturbation method (PBSPM) and its fast algorithm are proposed to characterize the likelihood of an edge from both existing connectivity structure and current popularity of its two endpoints. Experiments on six evolving networks show that the proposed methods outperform state-of-the-art methods in accuracy and robustness. Besides, visual results and statistical analysis reveal that the proposed methods are inclined to predict future edges between active nodes, rather than edges between inactive nodes.

A domain-based approach to predict protein-protein interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Resat Haluk

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Knowing which proteins exist in a certain organism or cell type and how these proteins interact with each other are necessary for the understanding of biological processes at the whole cell level. The determination of the protein-protein interaction (PPI networks has been the subject of extensive research. Despite the development of reasonably successful methods, serious technical difficulties still exist. In this paper we present DomainGA, a quantitative computational approach that uses the information about the domain-domain interactions to predict the interactions between proteins. Results DomainGA is a multi-parameter optimization method in which the available PPI information is used to derive a quantitative scoring scheme for the domain-domain pairs. Obtained domain interaction scores are then used to predict whether a pair of proteins interacts. Using the yeast PPI data and a series of tests, we show the robustness and insensitivity of the DomainGA method to the selection of the parameter sets, score ranges, and detection rules. Our DomainGA method achieves very high explanation ratios for the positive and negative PPIs in yeast. Based on our cross-verification tests on human PPIs, comparison of the optimized scores with the structurally observed domain interactions obtained from the iPFAM database, and sensitivity and specificity analysis; we conclude that our DomainGA method shows great promise to be applicable across multiple organisms. Conclusion We envision the DomainGA as a first step of a multiple tier approach to constructing organism specific PPIs. As it is based on fundamental structural information, the DomainGA approach can be used to create potential PPIs and the accuracy of the constructed interaction template can be further improved using complementary methods. Explanation ratios obtained in the reported test case studies clearly show that the false prediction rates of the template networks constructed

Dynameomics: Data-driven methods and models for utilizing large-scale protein structure repositories for improving fragment-based loop prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Rysavy, Steven J; Beck, David AC; Daggett, Valerie

2014-01-01

Protein function is intimately linked to protein structure and dynamics yet experimentally determined structures frequently omit regions within a protein due to indeterminate data, which is often due protein dynamics. We propose that atomistic molecular dynamics simulations provide a diverse sampling of biologically relevant structures for these missing segments (and beyond) to improve structural modeling and structure prediction. Here we make use of the Dynameomics data warehouse, which contains simulations of representatives of essentially all known protein folds. We developed novel computational methods to efficiently identify, rank and retrieve small peptide structures, or fragments, from this database. We also created a novel data model to analyze and compare large repositories of structural data, such as contained within the Protein Data Bank and the Dynameomics data warehouse. Our evaluation compares these structural repositories for improving loop predictions and analyzes the utility of our methods and models. Using a standard set of loop structures, containing 510 loops, 30 for each loop length from 4 to 20 residues, we find that the inclusion of Dynameomics structures in fragment-based methods improves the quality of the loop predictions without being dependent on sequence homology. Depending on loop length, ∼25–75% of the best predictions came from the Dynameomics set, resulting in lower main chain root-mean-square deviations for all fragment lengths using the combined fragment library. We also provide specific cases where Dynameomics fragments provide better predictions for NMR loop structures than fragments from crystal structures. Online access to these fragment libraries is available at http://www.dynameomics.org/fragments. PMID:25142412

Dynameomics: data-driven methods and models for utilizing large-scale protein structure repositories for improving fragment-based loop prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Rysavy, Steven J; Beck, David A C; Daggett, Valerie

2014-11-01

Protein function is intimately linked to protein structure and dynamics yet experimentally determined structures frequently omit regions within a protein due to indeterminate data, which is often due protein dynamics. We propose that atomistic molecular dynamics simulations provide a diverse sampling of biologically relevant structures for these missing segments (and beyond) to improve structural modeling and structure prediction. Here we make use of the Dynameomics data warehouse, which contains simulations of representatives of essentially all known protein folds. We developed novel computational methods to efficiently identify, rank and retrieve small peptide structures, or fragments, from this database. We also created a novel data model to analyze and compare large repositories of structural data, such as contained within the Protein Data Bank and the Dynameomics data warehouse. Our evaluation compares these structural repositories for improving loop predictions and analyzes the utility of our methods and models. Using a standard set of loop structures, containing 510 loops, 30 for each loop length from 4 to 20 residues, we find that the inclusion of Dynameomics structures in fragment-based methods improves the quality of the loop predictions without being dependent on sequence homology. Depending on loop length, ∼ 25-75% of the best predictions came from the Dynameomics set, resulting in lower main chain root-mean-square deviations for all fragment lengths using the combined fragment library. We also provide specific cases where Dynameomics fragments provide better predictions for NMR loop structures than fragments from crystal structures. Online access to these fragment libraries is available at http://www.dynameomics.org/fragments. © 2014 The Protein Society.

Novel Methods for Drug-Target Interaction Prediction using Graph Mining

KAUST Repository

Ba Alawi, Wail

2016-08-31

The problem of developing drugs that can be used to cure diseases is important and requires a careful approach. Since pursuing the wrong candidate drug for a particular disease could be very costly in terms of time and money, there is a strong interest in minimizing such risks. Drug repositioning has become a hot topic of research, as it helps reduce these risks significantly at the early stages of drug development by reusing an approved drug for the treatment of a different disease. Still, finding new usage for a drug is non-trivial, as it is necessary to find out strong supporting evidence that the proposed new uses of drugs are plausible. Many computational approaches were developed to narrow the list of possible candidate drug-target interactions (DTIs) before any experiments are done. However, many of these approaches suffer from unacceptable levels of false positives. We developed two novel methods based on graph mining networks of drugs and targets. The first method (DASPfind) finds all non-cyclic paths that connect a drug and a target, and using a function that we define, calculates a score from all the paths. This score describes our confidence that DTI is correct. We show that DASPfind significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in predicting the top ranked target for each drug. We demonstrate the utility of DASPfind by predicting 15 novel DTIs over a set of ion channel proteins, and confirming 12 out of these 15 DTIs through experimental evidence reported in literature and online drug databases. The second method (DASPfind+) modifies DASPfind in order to increase the confidence and reliability of the resultant predictions. Based on the structure of the drug-target interaction (DTI) networks, we introduced an optimization scheme that incrementally alters the network structure locally for each drug to achieve more robust top 1 ranked predictions. Moreover, we explored effects of several similarity measures between the targets on the prediction

Prediction of beta-turns at over 80% accuracy based on an ensemble of predicted secondary structures and multiple alignments.

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Zheng, Ce; Kurgan, Lukasz

2008-10-10

beta-turn is a secondary protein structure type that plays significant role in protein folding, stability, and molecular recognition. To date, several methods for prediction of beta-turns from protein sequences were developed, but they are characterized by relatively poor prediction quality. The novelty of the proposed sequence-based beta-turn predictor stems from the usage of a window based information extracted from four predicted three-state secondary structures, which together with a selected set of position specific scoring matrix (PSSM) values serve as an input to the support vector machine (SVM) predictor. We show that (1) all four predicted secondary structures are useful; (2) the most useful information extracted from the predicted secondary structure includes the structure of the predicted residue, secondary structure content in a window around the predicted residue, and features that indicate whether the predicted residue is inside a secondary structure segment; (3) the PSSM values of Asn, Asp, Gly, Ile, Leu, Met, Pro, and Val were among the top ranked features, which corroborates with recent studies. The Asn, Asp, Gly, and Pro indicate potential beta-turns, while the remaining four amino acids are useful to predict non-beta-turns. Empirical evaluation using three nonredundant datasets shows favorable Q total, Q predicted and MCC values when compared with over a dozen of modern competing methods. Our method is the first to break the 80% Q total barrier and achieves Q total = 80.9%, MCC = 0.47, and Q predicted higher by over 6% when compared with the second best method. We use feature selection to reduce the dimensionality of the feature vector used as the input for the proposed prediction method. The applied feature set is smaller by 86, 62 and 37% when compared with the second and two third-best (with respect to MCC) competing methods, respectively. Experiments show that the proposed method constitutes an improvement over the competing prediction

Safety prediction for basic components of safety critical software based on static testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, H.S.; Seong, P.H.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this work is to develop a safety prediction method, with which we can predict the risk of software components based on static testing results at the early development stage. The predictive model combines the major factor with the quality factor for the components, both of which are calculated based on the measures proposed in this work. The application to a safety-critical software system demonstrates the feasibility of the safety prediction method. (authors)

Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

2016-04-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

Prediction of pKa values using the PM6 semiempirical method

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Jimmy C. Kromann

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The PM6 semiempirical method and the dispersion and hydrogen bond-corrected PM6-D3H+ method are used together with the SMD and COSMO continuum solvation models to predict pKa values of pyridines, alcohols, phenols, benzoic acids, carboxylic acids, and phenols using isodesmic reactions and compared to published ab initio results. The pKa values of pyridines, alcohols, phenols, and benzoic acids considered in this study can generally be predicted with PM6 and ab initio methods to within the same overall accuracy, with average mean absolute differences (MADs of 0.6–0.7 pH units. For carboxylic acids, the accuracy (0.7–1.0 pH units is also comparable to ab initio results if a single outlier is removed. For primary, secondary, and tertiary amines the accuracy is, respectively, similar (0.5–0.6, slightly worse (0.5–1.0, and worse (1.0–2.5, provided that di- and tri-ethylamine are used as reference molecules for secondary and tertiary amines. When applied to a drug-like molecule where an empirical pKa predictor exhibits a large (4.9 pH unit error, we find that the errors for PM6-based predictions are roughly the same in magnitude but opposite in sign. As a result, most of the PM6-based methods predict the correct protonation state at physiological pH, while the empirical predictor does not. The computational cost is around 2–5 min per conformer per core processor, making PM6-based pKa prediction computationally efficient enough to be used for high-throughput screening using on the order of 100 core processors.

Drug-target interaction prediction from PSSM based evolutionary information.

Science.gov (United States)

Mousavian, Zaynab; Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Kavousi, Kaveh; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali

2016-01-01

The labor-intensive and expensive experimental process of drug-target interaction prediction has motivated many researchers to focus on in silico prediction, which leads to the helpful information in supporting the experimental interaction data. Therefore, they have proposed several computational approaches for discovering new drug-target interactions. Several learning-based methods have been increasingly developed which can be categorized into two main groups: similarity-based and feature-based. In this paper, we firstly use the bi-gram features extracted from the Position Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM) of proteins in predicting drug-target interactions. Our results demonstrate the high-confidence prediction ability of the Bigram-PSSM model in terms of several performance indicators specifically for enzymes and ion channels. Moreover, we investigate the impact of negative selection strategy on the performance of the prediction, which is not widely taken into account in the other relevant studies. This is important, as the number of non-interacting drug-target pairs are usually extremely large in comparison with the number of interacting ones in existing drug-target interaction data. An interesting observation is that different levels of performance reduction have been attained for four datasets when we change the sampling method from the random sampling to the balanced sampling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

2009-01-01

Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

A study on the fatigue life prediction of tire belt-layers using probabilistic method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Dong Woo; Park, Jong Sang; Lee, Tae Won; Kim, Seong Rae; Sung, Ki Deug; Huh, Sun Chul

2013-01-01

Tire belt separation failure is occurred by internal cracks generated in *1 and *2 belt layers and by its growth. And belt failure seriously affects tire endurance. Therefore, to improve the tire endurance, it is necessary to analyze tire crack growth behavior and predict fatigue life. Generally, the prediction of tire endurance is performed by the experimental method using tire test machine. But it takes much cost and time to perform experiment. In this paper, to predict tire fatigue life, we applied deterministic fracture mechanics approach, based on finite element analysis. Also, probabilistic analysis method based on statistics using Monte Carlo simulation is presented. Above mentioned two methods include a global-local finite element analysis to provide the detail necessary to model explicitly an internal crack and calculate the J-integral for tire life prediction.

Deterministic and probabilistic interval prediction for short-term wind power generation based on variational mode decomposition and machine learning methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yachao; Liu, Kaipei; Qin, Liang; An, Xueli

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Variational mode decomposition is adopted to process original wind power series. • A novel combined model based on machine learning methods is established. • An improved differential evolution algorithm is proposed for weight adjustment. • Probabilistic interval prediction is performed by quantile regression averaging. - Abstract: Due to the increasingly significant energy crisis nowadays, the exploitation and utilization of new clean energy gains more and more attention. As an important category of renewable energy, wind power generation has become the most rapidly growing renewable energy in China. However, the intermittency and volatility of wind power has restricted the large-scale integration of wind turbines into power systems. High-precision wind power forecasting is an effective measure to alleviate the negative influence of wind power generation on the power systems. In this paper, a novel combined model is proposed to improve the prediction performance for the short-term wind power forecasting. Variational mode decomposition is firstly adopted to handle the instability of the raw wind power series, and the subseries can be reconstructed by measuring sample entropy of the decomposed modes. Then the base models can be established for each subseries respectively. On this basis, the combined model is developed based on the optimal virtual prediction scheme, the weight matrix of which is dynamically adjusted by a self-adaptive multi-strategy differential evolution algorithm. Besides, a probabilistic interval prediction model based on quantile regression averaging and variational mode decomposition-based hybrid models is presented to quantify the potential risks of the wind power series. The simulation results indicate that: (1) the normalized mean absolute errors of the proposed combined model from one-step to three-step forecasting are 4.34%, 6.49% and 7.76%, respectively, which are much lower than those of the base models and the hybrid

Lattice gas methods for predicting intrinsic permeability of porous media

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, L.O.E.; Philippi, P.C. [Santa Catarina Univ., Florianopolis, SC (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica. Lab. de Propriedades Termofisicas e Meios Porosos)]. E-mail: emerich@lmpt.ufsc.br; philippi@lmpt.ufsc.br; Damiani, M.C. [Engineering Simulation and Scientific Software (ESSS), Florianopolis, SC (Brazil). Parque Tecnologico]. E-mail: damiani@lmpt.ufsc.br

2000-07-01

This paper presents a method for predicting intrinsic permeability of porous media based on Lattice Gas Cellular Automata methods. Two methods are presented. The first is based on a Boolean model (LGA). The second is Boltzmann method (LB) based on Boltzmann relaxation equation. LGA is a relatively recent method developed to perform hydrodynamic calculations. The method, in its simplest form, consists of a regular lattice populated with particles that hop from site to site in discrete time steps in a process, called propagation. After propagation, the particles in each site interact with each other in a process called collision, in which the number of particles and momentum are conserved. An exclusion principle is imposed in order to achieve better computational efficiency. In despite of its simplicity, this model evolves in agreement with Navier-Stokes equation for low Mach numbers. LB methods were recently developed for the numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equation based on discrete Boltzmann transport equation. Derived from LGA, LB is a powerful alternative to the standard methods in computational fluid dynamics. In recent years, it has received much attention and has been used in several applications like simulations of flows through porous media, turbulent flows and multiphase flows. It is important to emphasize some aspects that make Lattice Gas Cellular Automata methods very attractive for simulating flows through porous media. In fact, boundary conditions in flows through complex geometry structures are very easy to describe in simulations using these methods. In LGA methods simulations are performed with integers needing less resident memory capability and boolean arithmetic reduces running time. The two methods are used to simulate flows through several Brazilian reservoir petroleum rocks leading to intrinsic permeability prediction. Simulation is compared with experimental results. (author)

Sequence Based Prediction of Antioxidant Proteins Using a Classifier Selection Strategy.

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Lina Zhang

Full Text Available Antioxidant proteins perform significant functions in maintaining oxidation/antioxidation balance and have potential therapies for some diseases. Accurate identification of antioxidant proteins could contribute to revealing physiological processes of oxidation/antioxidation balance and developing novel antioxidation-based drugs. In this study, an ensemble method is presented to predict antioxidant proteins with hybrid features, incorporating SSI (Secondary Structure Information, PSSM (Position Specific Scoring Matrix, RSA (Relative Solvent Accessibility, and CTD (Composition, Transition, Distribution. The prediction results of the ensemble predictor are determined by an average of prediction results of multiple base classifiers. Based on a classifier selection strategy, we obtain an optimal ensemble classifier composed of RF (Random Forest, SMO (Sequential Minimal Optimization, NNA (Nearest Neighbor Algorithm, and J48 with an accuracy of 0.925. A Relief combined with IFS (Incremental Feature Selection method is adopted to obtain optimal features from hybrid features. With the optimal features, the ensemble method achieves improved performance with a sensitivity of 0.95, a specificity of 0.93, an accuracy of 0.94, and an MCC (Matthew's Correlation Coefficient of 0.880, far better than the existing method. To evaluate the prediction performance objectively, the proposed method is compared with existing methods on the same independent testing dataset. Encouragingly, our method performs better than previous studies. In addition, our method achieves more balanced performance with a sensitivity of 0.878 and a specificity of 0.860. These results suggest that the proposed ensemble method can be a potential candidate for antioxidant protein prediction. For public access, we develop a user-friendly web server for antioxidant protein identification that is freely accessible at http://antioxidant.weka.cc.

Prediction of protein post-translational modifications: main trends and methods

Science.gov (United States)

Sobolev, B. N.; Veselovsky, A. V.; Poroikov, V. V.

2014-02-01

The review summarizes main trends in the development of methods for the prediction of protein post-translational modifications (PTMs) by considering the three most common types of PTMs — phosphorylation, acetylation and glycosylation. Considerable attention is given to general characteristics of regulatory interactions associated with PTMs. Different approaches to the prediction of PTMs are analyzed. Most of the methods are based only on the analysis of the neighbouring environment of modification sites. The related software is characterized by relatively low accuracy of PTM predictions, which may be due both to the incompleteness of training data and the features of PTM regulation. Advantages and limitations of the phylogenetic approach are considered. The prediction of PTMs using data on regulatory interactions, including the modular organization of interacting proteins, is a promising field, provided that a more carefully selected training data will be used. The bibliography includes 145 references.

Prediction of critical heat flux in fuel assemblies using a CHF table method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chun, Tae Hyun; Hwang, Dae Hyun; Bang, Je Geon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Baek, Won Pil; Chang, Soon Heung [Korea Advance Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1998-12-31

A CHF table method has been assessed in this study for rod bundle CHF predictions. At the conceptual design stage for a new reactor, a general critical heat flux (CHF) prediction method with a wide applicable range and reasonable accuracy is essential to the thermal-hydraulic design and safety analysis. In many aspects, a CHF table method (i.e., the use of a round tube CHF table with appropriate bundle correction factors) can be a promising way to fulfill this need. So the assessment of the CHF table method has been performed with the bundle CHF data relevant to pressurized water reactors (PWRs). For comparison purposes, W-3R and EPRI-1 were also applied to the same data base. Data analysis has been conducted with the subchannel code COBRA-IV-I. The CHF table method shows the best predictions based on the direct substitution method. Improvements of the bundle correction factors, especially for the spacer grid and cold wall effects, are desirable for better predictions. Though the present assessment is somewhat limited in both fuel geometries and operating conditions, the CHF table method clearly shows potential to be a general CHF predictor. 8 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs. (Author)

Prediction of critical heat flux in fuel assemblies using a CHF table method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chun, Tae Hyun; Hwang, Dae Hyun; Bang, Je Geon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Baek, Won Pil; Chang, Soon Heung [Korea Advance Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1997-12-31

A CHF table method has been assessed in this study for rod bundle CHF predictions. At the conceptual design stage for a new reactor, a general critical heat flux (CHF) prediction method with a wide applicable range and reasonable accuracy is essential to the thermal-hydraulic design and safety analysis. In many aspects, a CHF table method (i.e., the use of a round tube CHF table with appropriate bundle correction factors) can be a promising way to fulfill this need. So the assessment of the CHF table method has been performed with the bundle CHF data relevant to pressurized water reactors (PWRs). For comparison purposes, W-3R and EPRI-1 were also applied to the same data base. Data analysis has been conducted with the subchannel code COBRA-IV-I. The CHF table method shows the best predictions based on the direct substitution method. Improvements of the bundle correction factors, especially for the spacer grid and cold wall effects, are desirable for better predictions. Though the present assessment is somewhat limited in both fuel geometries and operating conditions, the CHF table method clearly shows potential to be a general CHF predictor. 8 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs. (Author)

A class-based link prediction using Distance Dependent Chinese Restaurant Process

Science.gov (United States)

Andalib, Azam; Babamir, Seyed Morteza

2016-08-01

One of the important tasks in relational data analysis is link prediction which has been successfully applied on many applications such as bioinformatics, information retrieval, etc. The link prediction is defined as predicting the existence or absence of edges between nodes of a network. In this paper, we propose a novel method for link prediction based on Distance Dependent Chinese Restaurant Process (DDCRP) model which enables us to utilize the information of the topological structure of the network such as shortest path and connectivity of the nodes. We also propose a new Gibbs sampling algorithm for computing the posterior distribution of the hidden variables based on the training data. Experimental results on three real-world datasets show the superiority of the proposed method over other probabilistic models for link prediction problem.

Accurate Multisteps Traffic Flow Prediction Based on SVM

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Zhang Mingheng

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate traffic flow prediction is prerequisite and important for realizing intelligent traffic control and guidance, and it is also the objective requirement for intelligent traffic management. Due to the strong nonlinear, stochastic, time-varying characteristics of urban transport system, artificial intelligence methods such as support vector machine (SVM are now receiving more and more attentions in this research field. Compared with the traditional single-step prediction method, the multisteps prediction has the ability that can predict the traffic state trends over a certain period in the future. From the perspective of dynamic decision, it is far important than the current traffic condition obtained. Thus, in this paper, an accurate multi-steps traffic flow prediction model based on SVM was proposed. In which, the input vectors were comprised of actual traffic volume and four different types of input vectors were compared to verify their prediction performance with each other. Finally, the model was verified with actual data in the empirical analysis phase and the test results showed that the proposed SVM model had a good ability for traffic flow prediction and the SVM-HPT model outperformed the other three models for prediction.

A prediction method of natural gas hydrate formation in deepwater gas well and its application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanli Guo

2016-09-01

Full Text Available To prevent the deposition of natural gas hydrate in deepwater gas well, the hydrate formation area in wellbore must be predicted. Herein, by comparing four prediction methods of temperature in pipe with field data and comparing five prediction methods of hydrate formation with experiment data, a method based on OLGA & PVTsim for predicting the hydrate formation area in wellbore was proposed. Meanwhile, The hydrate formation under the conditions of steady production, throttling and shut-in was predicted by using this method based on a well data in the South China Sea. The results indicate that the hydrate formation area decreases with the increase of gas production, inhibitor concentrations and the thickness of insulation materials and increases with the increase of thermal conductivity of insulation materials and shutdown time. Throttling effect causes a plunge in temperature and pressure in wellbore, thus leading to an increase of hydrate formation area.

Prediction of beta-turns at over 80% accuracy based on an ensemble of predicted secondary structures and multiple alignments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kurgan Lukasz

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background β-turn is a secondary protein structure type that plays significant role in protein folding, stability, and molecular recognition. To date, several methods for prediction of β-turns from protein sequences were developed, but they are characterized by relatively poor prediction quality. The novelty of the proposed sequence-based β-turn predictor stems from the usage of a window based information extracted from four predicted three-state secondary structures, which together with a selected set of position specific scoring matrix (PSSM values serve as an input to the support vector machine (SVM predictor. Results We show that (1 all four predicted secondary structures are useful; (2 the most useful information extracted from the predicted secondary structure includes the structure of the predicted residue, secondary structure content in a window around the predicted residue, and features that indicate whether the predicted residue is inside a secondary structure segment; (3 the PSSM values of Asn, Asp, Gly, Ile, Leu, Met, Pro, and Val were among the top ranked features, which corroborates with recent studies. The Asn, Asp, Gly, and Pro indicate potential β-turns, while the remaining four amino acids are useful to predict non-β-turns. Empirical evaluation using three nonredundant datasets shows favorable Qtotal, Qpredicted and MCC values when compared with over a dozen of modern competing methods. Our method is the first to break the 80% Qtotal barrier and achieves Qtotal = 80.9%, MCC = 0.47, and Qpredicted higher by over 6% when compared with the second best method. We use feature selection to reduce the dimensionality of the feature vector used as the input for the proposed prediction method. The applied feature set is smaller by 86, 62 and 37% when compared with the second and two third-best (with respect to MCC competing methods, respectively. Conclusion Experiments show that the proposed method constitutes an

Link prediction based on nonequilibrium cooperation effect

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lanxi; Zhu, Xuzhen; Tian, Hui

2018-04-01

Link prediction in complex networks has become a common focus of many researchers. But most existing methods concentrate on neighbors, and rarely consider degree heterogeneity of two endpoints. Node degree represents the importance or status of endpoints. We describe the large-degree heterogeneity as the nonequilibrium between nodes. This nonequilibrium facilitates a stable cooperation between endpoints, so that two endpoints with large-degree heterogeneity tend to connect stably. We name such a phenomenon as the nonequilibrium cooperation effect. Therefore, this paper proposes a link prediction method based on the nonequilibrium cooperation effect to improve accuracy. Theoretical analysis will be processed in advance, and at the end, experiments will be performed in 12 real-world networks to compare the mainstream methods with our indices in the network through numerical analysis.

A RSM-based predictive model to characterize heat treating parameters of D2 steel using combined Barkhausen noise and hysteresis loop methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kahrobaee, Saeed; Hejazi, Taha-Hossein

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A statistical relationship between NDE inputs and heat treating outputs was provided. • Predicting austenitizing/tempering temperatures at unknown heat treating conditions. • An optimization model that achieves minimum error in prediction was developed. • Applying two simultaneous magnetic NDE methods led to better measuring reliability. - Abstract: Austenitizing and tempering temperatures are the effective characteristics in heat treating process of AISI D2 tool steel. Therefore, controlling them enables the heat treatment process to be designed more accurately which results in more balanced mechanical properties. The aim of this work is to develop a multiresponse predictive model that enables finding these characteristics based on nondestructive tests by a set of parameters of the magnetic Barkhausen noise technique and hysteresis loop method. To produce various microstructural changes, identical specimens from the AISI D2 steel sheet were austenitized in the range 1025–1130 °C, for 30 min, oil-quenched and finally tempered at various temperatures between 200 °C and 650 °C. A set of nondestructive data have been gathered based on general factorial design of experiments and used for training and testing the multiple response surface model. Finally, an optimization model has been proposed to achieve minimal error prediction. Results revealed that applying Barkhausen and hysteresis loop methods, simultaneously, coupling to the multiresponse model, has a potential to be used as a reliable and accurate nondestructive tool for predicting austenitizing and tempering temperatures (which, in turn, led to characterizing the microstructural changes) of the parts with unknown heat treating conditions.

A RSM-based predictive model to characterize heat treating parameters of D2 steel using combined Barkhausen noise and hysteresis loop methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kahrobaee, Saeed, E-mail: kahrobaee@sadjad.ac.ir [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Sadjad University of Technology, P.O. Box 91881-48848, Mashhad (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hejazi, Taha-Hossein [Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Sadjad University of Technology, P.O. Box 91881-48848, Mashhad (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2017-07-01

Highlights: • A statistical relationship between NDE inputs and heat treating outputs was provided. • Predicting austenitizing/tempering temperatures at unknown heat treating conditions. • An optimization model that achieves minimum error in prediction was developed. • Applying two simultaneous magnetic NDE methods led to better measuring reliability. - Abstract: Austenitizing and tempering temperatures are the effective characteristics in heat treating process of AISI D2 tool steel. Therefore, controlling them enables the heat treatment process to be designed more accurately which results in more balanced mechanical properties. The aim of this work is to develop a multiresponse predictive model that enables finding these characteristics based on nondestructive tests by a set of parameters of the magnetic Barkhausen noise technique and hysteresis loop method. To produce various microstructural changes, identical specimens from the AISI D2 steel sheet were austenitized in the range 1025–1130 °C, for 30 min, oil-quenched and finally tempered at various temperatures between 200 °C and 650 °C. A set of nondestructive data have been gathered based on general factorial design of experiments and used for training and testing the multiple response surface model. Finally, an optimization model has been proposed to achieve minimal error prediction. Results revealed that applying Barkhausen and hysteresis loop methods, simultaneously, coupling to the multiresponse model, has a potential to be used as a reliable and accurate nondestructive tool for predicting austenitizing and tempering temperatures (which, in turn, led to characterizing the microstructural changes) of the parts with unknown heat treating conditions.

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, James H., Jr.

2012-01-01

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and

A probabilistic fragment-based protein structure prediction algorithm.

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David Simoncini

Full Text Available Conformational sampling is one of the bottlenecks in fragment-based protein structure prediction approaches. They generally start with a coarse-grained optimization where mainchain atoms and centroids of side chains are considered, followed by a fine-grained optimization with an all-atom representation of proteins. It is during this coarse-grained phase that fragment-based methods sample intensely the conformational space. If the native-like region is sampled more, the accuracy of the final all-atom predictions may be improved accordingly. In this work we present EdaFold, a new method for fragment-based protein structure prediction based on an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm. Fragment-based approaches build protein models by assembling short fragments from known protein structures. Whereas the probability mass functions over the fragment libraries are uniform in the usual case, we propose an algorithm that learns from previously generated decoys and steers the search toward native-like regions. A comparison with Rosetta AbInitio protocol shows that EdaFold is able to generate models with lower energies and to enhance the percentage of near-native coarse-grained decoys on a benchmark of [Formula: see text] proteins. The best coarse-grained models produced by both methods were refined into all-atom models and used in molecular replacement. All atom decoys produced out of EdaFold's decoy set reach high enough accuracy to solve the crystallographic phase problem by molecular replacement for some test proteins. EdaFold showed a higher success rate in molecular replacement when compared to Rosetta. Our study suggests that improving low resolution coarse-grained decoys allows computational methods to avoid subsequent sampling issues during all-atom refinement and to produce better all-atom models. EdaFold can be downloaded from http://www.riken.jp/zhangiru/software.html [corrected].

Protein complex prediction based on k-connected subgraphs in protein interaction network

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Habibi Mahnaz

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein complexes play an important role in cellular mechanisms. Recently, several methods have been presented to predict protein complexes in a protein interaction network. In these methods, a protein complex is predicted as a dense subgraph of protein interactions. However, interactions data are incomplete and a protein complex does not have to be a complete or dense subgraph. Results We propose a more appropriate protein complex prediction method, CFA, that is based on connectivity number on subgraphs. We evaluate CFA using several protein interaction networks on reference protein complexes in two benchmark data sets (MIPS and Aloy, containing 1142 and 61 known complexes respectively. We compare CFA to some existing protein complex prediction methods (CMC, MCL, PCP and RNSC in terms of recall and precision. We show that CFA predicts more complexes correctly at a competitive level of precision. Conclusions Many real complexes with different connectivity level in protein interaction network can be predicted based on connectivity number. Our CFA program and results are freely available from http://www.bioinf.cs.ipm.ir/softwares/cfa/CFA.rar.

Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

1998-01-01

The paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems including open loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed extended for the control of non......-linear systems. GPC is model-based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis on an efficient Quasi......-Newton optimization algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

Predicting metabolic syndrome using decision tree and support vector machine methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farzaneh Karimi-Alavijeh

2016-06-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome which underlies the increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes is considered as a group of metabolic abnormalities including central obesity, hypertriglyceridemia, glucose intolerance, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Recently, artificial intelligence based health-care systems are highly regarded because of its success in diagnosis, prediction, and choice of treatment. This study employs machine learning technics for predict the metabolic syndrome. METHODS: This study aims to employ decision tree and support vector machine (SVM to predict the 7-year incidence of metabolic syndrome. This research is a practical one in which data from 2107 participants of Isfahan Cohort Study has been utilized. The subjects without metabolic syndrome according to the ATPIII criteria were selected. The features that have been used in this data set include: gender, age, weight, body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, hip circumference, physical activity, smoking, hypertension, antihypertensive medication use, systolic blood pressure (BP, diastolic BP, fasting blood sugar, 2-hour blood glucose, triglycerides (TGs, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol, mean corpuscular volume, and mean corpuscular hemoglobin. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed based on ATPIII criteria and two methods of decision tree and SVM were selected to predict the metabolic syndrome. The criteria of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were used for validation. RESULTS: SVM and decision tree methods were examined according to the criteria of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 0.774 (0.758, 0.74 (0.72 and 0.757 (0.739 in SVM (decision tree method. CONCLUSION: The results show that SVM method sensitivity, specificity and accuracy is more efficient than decision tree. The results of decision tree method show that the TG is the most

Prediction Model of Machining Failure Trend Based on Large Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jirong

2017-12-01

The mechanical processing has high complexity, strong coupling, a lot of control factors in the machining process, it is prone to failure, in order to improve the accuracy of fault detection of large mechanical equipment, research on fault trend prediction requires machining, machining fault trend prediction model based on fault data. The characteristics of data processing using genetic algorithm K mean clustering for machining, machining feature extraction which reflects the correlation dimension of fault, spectrum characteristics analysis of abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process, the extraction method of the abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process of multi-component spectral decomposition and empirical mode decomposition Hilbert based on feature extraction and the decomposition results, in order to establish the intelligent expert system for the data base, combined with large data analysis method to realize the machining of the Fault trend prediction. The simulation results show that this method of fault trend prediction of mechanical machining accuracy is better, the fault in the mechanical process accurate judgment ability, it has good application value analysis and fault diagnosis in the machining process.

Improving Allergen Prediction in Main Crops Using a Weighted Integrative Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jing; Wang, Jing; Li, Jing

2017-12-01

As a public health problem, food allergy is frequently caused by food allergy proteins, which trigger a type-I hypersensitivity reaction in the immune system of atopic individuals. The food allergens in our daily lives are mainly from crops including rice, wheat, soybean and maize. However, allergens in these main crops are far from fully uncovered. Although some bioinformatics tools or methods predicting the potential allergenicity of proteins have been proposed, each method has their limitation. In this paper, we built a novel algorithm PREAL W , which integrated PREAL, FAO/WHO criteria and motif-based method by a weighted average score, to benefit the advantages of different methods. Our results illustrated PREAL W has better performance significantly in the crops' allergen prediction. This integrative allergen prediction algorithm could be useful for critical food safety matters. The PREAL W could be accessed at http://lilab.life.sjtu.edu.cn:8080/prealw .

Sequence-based prediction of protein protein interaction using a deep-learning algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Tanlin; Zhou, Bo; Lai, Luhua; Pei, Jianfeng

2017-05-25

Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are critical for many biological processes. It is therefore important to develop accurate high-throughput methods for identifying PPI to better understand protein function, disease occurrence, and therapy design. Though various computational methods for predicting PPI have been developed, their robustness for prediction with external datasets is unknown. Deep-learning algorithms have achieved successful results in diverse areas, but their effectiveness for PPI prediction has not been tested. We used a stacked autoencoder, a type of deep-learning algorithm, to study the sequence-based PPI prediction. The best model achieved an average accuracy of 97.19% with 10-fold cross-validation. The prediction accuracies for various external datasets ranged from 87.99% to 99.21%, which are superior to those achieved with previous methods. To our knowledge, this research is the first to apply a deep-learning algorithm to sequence-based PPI prediction, and the results demonstrate its potential in this field.

Predicting human splicing branchpoints by combining sequence-derived features and multi-label learning methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wen; Zhu, Xiaopeng; Fu, Yu; Tsuji, Junko; Weng, Zhiping

2017-12-01

Alternative splicing is the critical process in a single gene coding, which removes introns and joins exons, and splicing branchpoints are indicators for the alternative splicing. Wet experiments have identified a great number of human splicing branchpoints, but many branchpoints are still unknown. In order to guide wet experiments, we develop computational methods to predict human splicing branchpoints. Considering the fact that an intron may have multiple branchpoints, we transform the branchpoint prediction as the multi-label learning problem, and attempt to predict branchpoint sites from intron sequences. First, we investigate a variety of intron sequence-derived features, such as sparse profile, dinucleotide profile, position weight matrix profile, Markov motif profile and polypyrimidine tract profile. Second, we consider several multi-label learning methods: partial least squares regression, canonical correlation analysis and regularized canonical correlation analysis, and use them as the basic classification engines. Third, we propose two ensemble learning schemes which integrate different features and different classifiers to build ensemble learning systems for the branchpoint prediction. One is the genetic algorithm-based weighted average ensemble method; the other is the logistic regression-based ensemble method. In the computational experiments, two ensemble learning methods outperform benchmark branchpoint prediction methods, and can produce high-accuracy results on the benchmark dataset.

Large-scale binding ligand prediction by improved patch-based method Patch-Surfer2.0.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Xiaolei; Xiong, Yi; Kihara, Daisuke

2015-03-01

Ligand binding is a key aspect of the function of many proteins. Thus, binding ligand prediction provides important insight in understanding the biological function of proteins. Binding ligand prediction is also useful for drug design and examining potential drug side effects. We present a computational method named Patch-Surfer2.0, which predicts binding ligands for a protein pocket. By representing and comparing pockets at the level of small local surface patches that characterize physicochemical properties of the local regions, the method can identify binding pockets of the same ligand even if they do not share globally similar shapes. Properties of local patches are represented by an efficient mathematical representation, 3D Zernike Descriptor. Patch-Surfer2.0 has significant technical improvements over our previous prototype, which includes a new feature that captures approximate patch position with a geodesic distance histogram. Moreover, we constructed a large comprehensive database of ligand binding pockets that will be searched against by a query. The benchmark shows better performance of Patch-Surfer2.0 over existing methods. http://kiharalab.org/patchsurfer2.0/ CONTACT: dkihara@purdue.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Power capability prediction for lithium-ion batteries based on multiple constraints analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Rui; Wang, Yujie; Zhang, Xu; Yang, Duo; Chen, Zonghai

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Multiple constraints for peak power capability prediction are deeply analyzed. • Multi-limited method is proposed for the peak power capability prediction of LIBs. • The EKF is used for the model based peak power capability prediction. • The FUDS and UDDS profiles are executed to evaluate the proposed method. - Abstract: The power capability of the lithium-ion battery is a key performance indicator for electric vehicle, and it is intimately correlated with the acceleration, regenerative braking and gradient climbing power requirements. Therefore, an accurate power capability or state-of-power prediction is critical to a battery management system, which can help the battery to work in suitable area and prevent the battery from over-charging and over-discharging. However, the power capability is easily affected by dynamic load, voltage variation and temperature. In this paper, three different constraints in power capability prediction are introduced, and the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods are deeply analyzed. Furthermore, a multi-limited approach for the power capability prediction is proposed, which can overcome the drawbacks of the three methods. Subsequently, the extended Kalman filter algorithm is employed for model based state-of-power prediction. In order to verify the proposed method, diverse experiments are executed to explore the efficiency, robustness, and precision. The results indicate that the proposed method can improve the precision and robustness obviously.

Deep learning methods for protein torsion angle prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haiou; Hou, Jie; Adhikari, Badri; Lyu, Qiang; Cheng, Jianlin

2017-09-18

Deep learning is one of the most powerful machine learning methods that has achieved the state-of-the-art performance in many domains. Since deep learning was introduced to the field of bioinformatics in 2012, it has achieved success in a number of areas such as protein residue-residue contact prediction, secondary structure prediction, and fold recognition. In this work, we developed deep learning methods to improve the prediction of torsion (dihedral) angles of proteins. We design four different deep learning architectures to predict protein torsion angles. The architectures including deep neural network (DNN) and deep restricted Boltzmann machine (DRBN), deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) and deep recurrent restricted Boltzmann machine (DReRBM) since the protein torsion angle prediction is a sequence related problem. In addition to existing protein features, two new features (predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments) are used as input to each of the four deep learning architectures to predict phi and psi angles of protein backbone. The mean absolute error (MAE) of phi and psi angles predicted by DRNN, DReRBM, DRBM and DNN is about 20-21° and 29-30° on an independent dataset. The MAE of phi angle is comparable to the existing methods, but the MAE of psi angle is 29°, 2° lower than the existing methods. On the latest CASP12 targets, our methods also achieved the performance better than or comparable to a state-of-the art method. Our experiment demonstrates that deep learning is a valuable method for predicting protein torsion angles. The deep recurrent network architecture performs slightly better than deep feed-forward architecture, and the predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments are useful features for improving prediction accuracy.

Protein Function Prediction Based on Sequence and Structure Information

KAUST Repository

Smaili, Fatima Z.

2016-05-25

The number of available protein sequences in public databases is increasing exponentially. However, a significant fraction of these sequences lack functional annotation which is essential to our understanding of how biological systems and processes operate. In this master thesis project, we worked on inferring protein functions based on the primary protein sequence. In the approach we follow, 3D models are first constructed using I-TASSER. Functions are then deduced by structurally matching these predicted models, using global and local similarities, through three independent enzyme commission (EC) and gene ontology (GO) function libraries. The method was tested on 250 “hard” proteins, which lack homologous templates in both structure and function libraries. The results show that this method outperforms the conventional prediction methods based on sequence similarity or threading. Additionally, our method could be improved even further by incorporating protein-protein interaction information. Overall, the method we use provides an efficient approach for automated functional annotation of non-homologous proteins, starting from their sequence.

Molecular Structure-Based Methods of Property Prediction in Application to Lipids: A Review and Refinement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cunico, Larissa; Hukkerikar, Amol; Ceriani, Roberta

2013-01-01

The paper is a review of the combined group contribution (GC)–atom connectivity index (CI) approachfor prediction of physical and thermodynamic properties of organic chemicals and their mixtures withspecial emphasis on lipids. The combined approach employs carefully selected datasets of different...... dependent, have been developed. For mixtures, properties related to phase equilibria aremodeled with GE-based models (UNIQUAC, UNIFAC, NRTL, and combined UNIFAC-CI method). The col-lected phase equilibrium data for VLE and SLE have been tested for thermodynamic consistency togetherwith a performance...... evaluation of the GE-models. The paper also reviews the role of the databases andthe mathematical and thermodynamic consistency of the measured/estimated data and the predictivenature of the developed models....

A method for uncertainty quantification in the life prediction of gas turbine components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lodeby, K.; Isaksson, O.; Jaervstraat, N. [Volvo Aero Corporation, Trolhaettan (Sweden)

1998-12-31

A failure in an aircraft jet engine can have severe consequences which cannot be accepted and high requirements are therefore raised on engine reliability. Consequently, assessment of the reliability of life predictions used in design and maintenance are important. To assess the validity of the predicted life a method to quantify the contribution to the total uncertainty in the life prediction from different uncertainty sources is developed. The method is a structured approach for uncertainty quantification that uses a generic description of the life prediction process. It is based on an approximate error propagation theory combined with a unified treatment of random and systematic errors. The result is an approximate statistical distribution for the predicted life. The method is applied on life predictions for three different jet engine components. The total uncertainty became of reasonable order of magnitude and a good qualitative picture of the distribution of the uncertainty contribution from the different sources was obtained. The relative importance of the uncertainty sources differs between the three components. It is also highly dependent on the methods and assumptions used in the life prediction. Advantages and disadvantages of this method is discussed. (orig.) 11 refs.

Prediction of potential drug targets based on simple sequence properties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lai Luhua

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background During the past decades, research and development in drug discovery have attracted much attention and efforts. However, only 324 drug targets are known for clinical drugs up to now. Identifying potential drug targets is the first step in the process of modern drug discovery for developing novel therapeutic agents. Therefore, the identification and validation of new and effective drug targets are of great value for drug discovery in both academia and pharmaceutical industry. If a protein can be predicted in advance for its potential application as a drug target, the drug discovery process targeting this protein will be greatly speeded up. In the current study, based on the properties of known drug targets, we have developed a sequence-based drug target prediction method for fast identification of novel drug targets. Results Based on simple physicochemical properties extracted from protein sequences of known drug targets, several support vector machine models have been constructed in this study. The best model can distinguish currently known drug targets from non drug targets at an accuracy of 84%. Using this model, potential protein drug targets of human origin from Swiss-Prot were predicted, some of which have already attracted much attention as potential drug targets in pharmaceutical research. Conclusion We have developed a drug target prediction method based solely on protein sequence information without the knowledge of family/domain annotation, or the protein 3D structure. This method can be applied in novel drug target identification and validation, as well as genome scale drug target predictions.

Protein complex prediction based on k-connected subgraphs in protein interaction network

OpenAIRE

Habibi, Mahnaz; Eslahchi, Changiz; Wong, Limsoon

2010-01-01

Abstract Background Protein complexes play an important role in cellular mechanisms. Recently, several methods have been presented to predict protein complexes in a protein interaction network. In these methods, a protein complex is predicted as a dense subgraph of protein interactions. However, interactions data are incomplete and a protein complex does not have to be a complete or dense subgraph. Results We propose a more appropriate protein complex prediction method, CFA, that is based on ...

Predicting metabolic syndrome using decision tree and support vector machine methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Karimi-Alavijeh, Farzaneh; Jalili, Saeed; Sadeghi, Masoumeh

2016-05-01

Metabolic syndrome which underlies the increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes is considered as a group of metabolic abnormalities including central obesity, hypertriglyceridemia, glucose intolerance, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Recently, artificial intelligence based health-care systems are highly regarded because of its success in diagnosis, prediction, and choice of treatment. This study employs machine learning technics for predict the metabolic syndrome. This study aims to employ decision tree and support vector machine (SVM) to predict the 7-year incidence of metabolic syndrome. This research is a practical one in which data from 2107 participants of Isfahan Cohort Study has been utilized. The subjects without metabolic syndrome according to the ATPIII criteria were selected. The features that have been used in this data set include: gender, age, weight, body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, hip circumference, physical activity, smoking, hypertension, antihypertensive medication use, systolic blood pressure (BP), diastolic BP, fasting blood sugar, 2-hour blood glucose, triglycerides (TGs), total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol, mean corpuscular volume, and mean corpuscular hemoglobin. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed based on ATPIII criteria and two methods of decision tree and SVM were selected to predict the metabolic syndrome. The criteria of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were used for validation. SVM and decision tree methods were examined according to the criteria of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 0.774 (0.758), 0.74 (0.72) and 0.757 (0.739) in SVM (decision tree) method. The results show that SVM method sensitivity, specificity and accuracy is more efficient than decision tree. The results of decision tree method show that the TG is the most important feature in predicting metabolic syndrome. According

Incorporating information on predicted solvent accessibility to the co-evolution-based study of protein interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ochoa, David; García-Gutiérrez, Ponciano; Juan, David; Valencia, Alfonso; Pazos, Florencio

2013-01-27

A widespread family of methods for studying and predicting protein interactions using sequence information is based on co-evolution, quantified as similarity of phylogenetic trees. Part of the co-evolution observed between interacting proteins could be due to co-adaptation caused by inter-protein contacts. In this case, the co-evolution is expected to be more evident when evaluated on the surface of the proteins or the internal layers close to it. In this work we study the effect of incorporating information on predicted solvent accessibility to three methods for predicting protein interactions based on similarity of phylogenetic trees. We evaluate the performance of these methods in predicting different types of protein associations when trees based on positions with different characteristics of predicted accessibility are used as input. We found that predicted accessibility improves the results of two recent versions of the mirrortree methodology in predicting direct binary physical interactions, while it neither improves these methods, nor the original mirrortree method, in predicting other types of interactions. That improvement comes at no cost in terms of applicability since accessibility can be predicted for any sequence. We also found that predictions of protein-protein interactions are improved when multiple sequence alignments with a richer representation of sequences (including paralogs) are incorporated in the accessibility prediction.

EMD-Based Predictive Deep Belief Network for Time Series Prediction: An Application to Drought Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norbert A. Agana

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Drought is a stochastic natural feature that arises due to intense and persistent shortage of precipitation. Its impact is mostly manifested as agricultural and hydrological droughts following an initial meteorological phenomenon. Drought prediction is essential because it can aid in the preparedness and impact-related management of its effects. This study considers the drought forecasting problem by developing a hybrid predictive model using a denoised empirical mode decomposition (EMD and a deep belief network (DBN. The proposed method first decomposes the data into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs using EMD, and a reconstruction of the original data is obtained by considering only relevant IMFs. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA was applied to each IMF to determine the threshold for robust denoising performance. Based on their scaling exponents, irrelevant intrinsic mode functions are identified and suppressed. The proposed method was applied to predict different time scale drought indices across the Colorado River basin using a standardized streamflow index (SSI as the drought index. The results obtained using the proposed method was compared with standard methods such as multilayer perceptron (MLP and support vector regression (SVR. The proposed hybrid model showed improvement in prediction accuracy, especially for multi-step ahead predictions.

Scaling-based prediction of magnetic anisotropy in grain-oriented steels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Najgebauer Mariusz

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the scaling-based approach to analysis and prediction of magnetic anisotropy in grain-oriented steels. Results of the anisotropy scaling indicate the existence of two universality classes. The hybrid approach to prediction of magnetic anisotropy, combining the scaling analysis with the ODFs method, is proposed. This approach is examined in prediction of angular dependencies of magnetic induction as well as magnetization curves for the 111-35S5 steel. It is shown that it is possible to predict anisotropy of magnetic properties based on measurements in three arbitrary directions for φ = 0°, 60° and 90°. The relatively small errors between predicted and measured values of magnetic induction are obtained.

A state-based probabilistic model for tumor respiratory motion prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalet, Alan; Sandison, George; Schmitz, Ruth; Wu Huanmei

2010-01-01

This work proposes a new probabilistic mathematical model for predicting tumor motion and position based on a finite state representation using the natural breathing states of exhale, inhale and end of exhale. Tumor motion was broken down into linear breathing states and sequences of states. Breathing state sequences and the observables representing those sequences were analyzed using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to predict the future sequences and new observables. Velocities and other parameters were clustered using a k-means clustering algorithm to associate each state with a set of observables such that a prediction of state also enables a prediction of tumor velocity. A time average model with predictions based on average past state lengths was also computed. State sequences which are known a priori to fit the data were fed into the HMM algorithm to set a theoretical limit of the predictive power of the model. The effectiveness of the presented probabilistic model has been evaluated for gated radiation therapy based on previously tracked tumor motion in four lung cancer patients. Positional prediction accuracy is compared with actual position in terms of the overall RMS errors. Various system delays, ranging from 33 to 1000 ms, were tested. Previous studies have shown duty cycles for latencies of 33 and 200 ms at around 90% and 80%, respectively, for linear, no prediction, Kalman filter and ANN methods as averaged over multiple patients. At 1000 ms, the previously reported duty cycles range from approximately 62% (ANN) down to 34% (no prediction). Average duty cycle for the HMM method was found to be 100% and 91 ± 3% for 33 and 200 ms latency and around 40% for 1000 ms latency in three out of four breathing motion traces. RMS errors were found to be lower than linear and no prediction methods at latencies of 1000 ms. The results show that for system latencies longer than 400 ms, the time average HMM prediction outperforms linear, no prediction, and the more

A Practical Radiosity Method for Predicting Transmission Loss in Urban Environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Ming

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The ability to predict transmission loss or field strength distribution is crucial for determining coverage in planning personal communication systems. This paper presents a practical method to accurately predict entire average transmission loss distribution in complicated urban environments. The method uses a 3D propagation model based on radiosity and a simplified city information database including surfaces of roads and building groups. Narrowband validation measurements with line-of-sight (LOS and non-line-of-sight (NLOS cases at 1800 MHz give excellent agreement in urban environments.

Large-scale validation of methods for cytotoxic T-lymphocyte epitope prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Mette Voldby; Lundegaard, Claus; Lamberth, K.

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: Reliable predictions of Cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes are essential for rational vaccine design. Most importantly, they can minimize the experimental effort needed to identify epitopes. NetCTL is a web-based tool designed for predicting human CTL epitopes in any given protein....... of the other methods achieved a sensitivity of 0.64. The NetCTL-1.2 method is available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetCTL.All used datasets are available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/suppl/immunology/CTL-1.2.php....

Predicting Fluctuations in Cryptocurrency Transactions Based on User Comments and Replies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Young Bin; Kim, Jun Gi; Kim, Wook; Im, Jae Ho; Kim, Tae Hyeong; Kang, Shin Jin; Kim, Chang Hun

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a method to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies, which are increasingly used for online transactions worldwide. Little research has been conducted on predicting fluctuations in the price and number of transactions of a variety of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the few methods proposed to predict fluctuation in currency prices are inefficient because they fail to take into account the differences in attributes between real currencies and cryptocurrencies. This paper analyzes user comments in online cryptocurrency communities to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies and the number of transactions. By focusing on three cryptocurrencies, each with a large market size and user base, this paper attempts to predict such fluctuations by using a simple and efficient method.

Uncertainty analysis of neural network based flood forecasting models: An ensemble based approach for constructing prediction interval

Science.gov (United States)

Kasiviswanathan, K.; Sudheer, K.

2013-05-01

Artificial neural network (ANN) based hydrologic models have gained lot of attention among water resources engineers and scientists, owing to their potential for accurate prediction of flood flows as compared to conceptual or physics based hydrologic models. The ANN approximates the non-linear functional relationship between the complex hydrologic variables in arriving at the river flow forecast values. Despite a large number of applications, there is still some criticism that ANN's point prediction lacks in reliability since the uncertainty of predictions are not quantified, and it limits its use in practical applications. A major concern in application of traditional uncertainty analysis techniques on neural network framework is its parallel computing architecture with large degrees of freedom, which makes the uncertainty assessment a challenging task. Very limited studies have considered assessment of predictive uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models. In this study, a novel method is proposed that help construct the prediction interval of ANN flood forecasting model during calibration itself. The method is designed to have two stages of optimization during calibration: at stage 1, the ANN model is trained with genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain optimal set of weights and biases vector, and during stage 2, the optimal variability of ANN parameters (obtained in stage 1) is identified so as to create an ensemble of predictions. During the 2nd stage, the optimization is performed with multiple objectives, (i) minimum residual variance for the ensemble mean, (ii) maximum measured data points to fall within the estimated prediction interval and (iii) minimum width of prediction interval. The method is illustrated using a real world case study of an Indian basin. The method was able to produce an ensemble that has an average prediction interval width of 23.03 m3/s, with 97.17% of the total validation data points (measured) lying within the interval. The derived

Hybrid methods for airframe noise numerical prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Terracol, M.; Manoha, E.; Herrero, C.; Labourasse, E.; Redonnet, S. [ONERA, Department of CFD and Aeroacoustics, BP 72, Chatillon (France); Sagaut, P. [Laboratoire de Modelisation en Mecanique - UPMC/CNRS, Paris (France)

2005-07-01

This paper describes some significant steps made towards the numerical simulation of the noise radiated by the high-lift devices of a plane. Since the full numerical simulation of such configuration is still out of reach for present supercomputers, some hybrid strategies have been developed to reduce the overall cost of such simulations. The proposed strategy relies on the coupling of an unsteady nearfield CFD with an acoustic propagation solver based on the resolution of the Euler equations for midfield propagation in an inhomogeneous field, and the use of an integral solver for farfield acoustic predictions. In the first part of this paper, this CFD/CAA coupling strategy is presented. In particular, the numerical method used in the propagation solver is detailed, and two applications of this coupling method to the numerical prediction of the aerodynamic noise of an airfoil are presented. Then, a hybrid RANS/LES method is proposed in order to perform some unsteady simulations of complex noise sources. This method allows for significant reduction of the cost of such a simulation by considerably reducing the extent of the LES zone. This method is described and some results of the numerical simulation of the three-dimensional unsteady flow in the slat cove of a high-lift profile are presented. While these results remain very difficult to validate with experiments on similar configurations, they represent up to now the first 3D computations of this kind of flow. (orig.)

Polyadenylation site prediction using PolyA-iEP method.

Science.gov (United States)

Kavakiotis, Ioannis; Tzanis, George; Vlahavas, Ioannis

2014-01-01

This chapter presents a method called PolyA-iEP that has been developed for the prediction of polyadenylation sites. More precisely, PolyA-iEP is a method that recognizes mRNA 3'ends which contain polyadenylation sites. It is a modular system which consists of two main components. The first exploits the advantages of emerging patterns and the second is a distance-based scoring method. The outputs of the two components are finally combined by a classifier. The final results reach very high scores of sensitivity and specificity.

Crystal density predictions for nitramines based on quantum chemistry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu Ling; Xiao Heming; Gong Xuedong; Ju Xuehai; Zhu Weihua

2007-01-01

An efficient and convenient method for predicting the crystalline densities of energetic materials was established based on the quantum chemical computations. Density functional theory (DFT) with four different basis sets (6-31G**, 6-311G**, 6-31+G**, and 6-311++G**) and various semiempirical molecular orbital (MO) methods have been employed to predict the molecular volumes and densities of a series of energetic nitramines including acyclic, monocyclic, and polycyclic/cage molecules. The relationships between the calculated values and experimental data were discussed in detail, and linear correlations were suggested and compared at different levels. The calculation shows that if the selected basis set is larger, it will expend more CPU (central processing unit) time, larger molecular volume and smaller density will be obtained. And the densities predicted by the semiempirical MO methods are all systematically larger than the experimental data. In comparison with other methods, B3LYP/6-31G** is most accurate and economical to predict the solid-state densities of energetic nitramines. This may be instructive to the molecular designing and screening novel HEDMs

A polynomial based model for cell fate prediction in human diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Lichun; Zheng, Jie

2017-12-21

Cell fate regulation directly affects tissue homeostasis and human health. Research on cell fate decision sheds light on key regulators, facilitates understanding the mechanisms, and suggests novel strategies to treat human diseases that are related to abnormal cell development. In this study, we proposed a polynomial based model to predict cell fate. This model was derived from Taylor series. As a case study, gene expression data of pancreatic cells were adopted to test and verify the model. As numerous features (genes) are available, we employed two kinds of feature selection methods, i.e. correlation based and apoptosis pathway based. Then polynomials of different degrees were used to refine the cell fate prediction function. 10-fold cross-validation was carried out to evaluate the performance of our model. In addition, we analyzed the stability of the resultant cell fate prediction model by evaluating the ranges of the parameters, as well as assessing the variances of the predicted values at randomly selected points. Results show that, within both the two considered gene selection methods, the prediction accuracies of polynomials of different degrees show little differences. Interestingly, the linear polynomial (degree 1 polynomial) is more stable than others. When comparing the linear polynomials based on the two gene selection methods, it shows that although the accuracy of the linear polynomial that uses correlation analysis outcomes is a little higher (achieves 86.62%), the one within genes of the apoptosis pathway is much more stable. Considering both the prediction accuracy and the stability of polynomial models of different degrees, the linear model is a preferred choice for cell fate prediction with gene expression data of pancreatic cells. The presented cell fate prediction model can be extended to other cells, which may be important for basic research as well as clinical study of cell development related diseases.

The Comparison Study of Short-Term Prediction Methods to Enhance the Model Predictive Controller Applied to Microgrid Energy Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

César Hernández-Hernández

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting, optimal power system operation and energy management play key roles that can bring significant operational advantages to microgrids. This paper studies how methods based on time series and neural networks can be used to predict energy demand and production, allowing them to be combined with model predictive control. Comparisons of different prediction methods and different optimum energy distribution scenarios are provided, permitting us to determine when short-term energy prediction models should be used. The proposed prediction models in addition to the model predictive control strategy appear as a promising solution to energy management in microgrids. The controller has the task of performing the management of electricity purchase and sale to the power grid, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources and managing the use of the energy storage system. Simulations were performed with different weather conditions of solar irradiation. The obtained results are encouraging for future practical implementation.

Static Formation Temperature Prediction Based on Bottom Hole Temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changwei Liu

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Static formation temperature (SFT is required to determine the thermophysical properties and production parameters in geothermal and oil reservoirs. However, it is not easy to determine SFT by both experimental and physical methods. In this paper, a mathematical approach to predicting SFT, based on a new model describing the relationship between bottom hole temperature (BHT and shut-in time, has been proposed. The unknown coefficients of the model were derived from the least squares fit by the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm. Additionally, the ability to predict SFT using a few BHT data points (such as the first three, four, or five points of a data set was evaluated. The accuracy of the proposed method to predict SFT was confirmed by a deviation percentage less than ±4% and a high regression coefficient R2 (>0.98. The proposed method could be used as a practical tool to predict SFT in both geothermal and oil wells.

An ensemble method to predict target genes and pathways in uveal melanoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Chao

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This work proposes to predict target genes and pathways for uveal melanoma (UM based on an ensemble method and pathway analyses. Methods: The ensemble method integrated a correlation method (Pearson correlation coefficient, PCC, a causal inference method (IDA and a regression method (Lasso utilizing the Borda count election method. Subsequently, to validate the performance of PIL method, comparisons between confirmed database and predicted miRNA targets were performed. Ultimately, pathway enrichment analysis was conducted on target genes in top 1000 miRNA-mRNA interactions to identify target pathways for UM patients. Results: Thirty eight of the predicted interactions were matched with the confirmed interactions, indicating that the ensemble method was a suitable and feasible approach to predict miRNA targets. We obtained 50 seed miRNA-mRNA interactions of UM patients and extracted target genes from these interactions, such as ASPG, BSDC1 and C4BP. The 601 target genes in top 1,000 miRNA-mRNA interactions were enriched in 12 target pathways, of which Phototransduction was the most significant one. Conclusion: The target genes and pathways might provide a new way to reveal the molecular mechanism of UM and give hand for target treatments and preventions of this malignant tumor.

Geometry optimization method versus predictive ability in QSPR modeling for ionic liquids

Science.gov (United States)

Rybinska, Anna; Sosnowska, Anita; Barycki, Maciej; Puzyn, Tomasz

2016-02-01

Computational techniques, such as Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) modeling, are very useful in predicting physicochemical properties of various chemicals. Building QSPR models requires calculating molecular descriptors and the proper choice of the geometry optimization method, which will be dedicated to specific structure of tested compounds. Herein, we examine the influence of the ionic liquids' (ILs) geometry optimization methods on the predictive ability of QSPR models by comparing three models. The models were developed based on the same experimental data on density collected for 66 ionic liquids, but with employing molecular descriptors calculated from molecular geometries optimized at three different levels of the theory, namely: (1) semi-empirical (PM7), (2) ab initio (HF/6-311+G*) and (3) density functional theory (B3LYP/6-311+G*). The model in which the descriptors were calculated by using ab initio HF/6-311+G* method indicated the best predictivity capabilities ({{Q}}_{{EXT}}2 = 0.87). However, PM7-based model has comparable values of quality parameters ({{Q}}_{{EXT}}2 = 0.84). Obtained results indicate that semi-empirical methods (faster and less expensive regarding CPU time) can be successfully employed to geometry optimization in QSPR studies for ionic liquids.

Kernel density estimation-based real-time prediction for respiratory motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruan, Dan

2010-01-01

Effective delivery of adaptive radiotherapy requires locating the target with high precision in real time. System latency caused by data acquisition, streaming, processing and delivery control necessitates prediction. Prediction is particularly challenging for highly mobile targets such as thoracic and abdominal tumors undergoing respiration-induced motion. The complexity of the respiratory motion makes it difficult to build and justify explicit models. In this study, we honor the intrinsic uncertainties in respiratory motion and propose a statistical treatment of the prediction problem. Instead of asking for a deterministic covariate-response map and a unique estimate value for future target position, we aim to obtain a distribution of the future target position (response variable) conditioned on the observed historical sample values (covariate variable). The key idea is to estimate the joint probability distribution (pdf) of the covariate and response variables using an efficient kernel density estimation method. Then, the problem of identifying the distribution of the future target position reduces to identifying the section in the joint pdf based on the observed covariate. Subsequently, estimators are derived based on this estimated conditional distribution. This probabilistic perspective has some distinctive advantages over existing deterministic schemes: (1) it is compatible with potentially inconsistent training samples, i.e., when close covariate variables correspond to dramatically different response values; (2) it is not restricted by any prior structural assumption on the map between the covariate and the response; (3) the two-stage setup allows much freedom in choosing statistical estimates and provides a full nonparametric description of the uncertainty for the resulting estimate. We evaluated the prediction performance on ten patient RPM traces, using the root mean squared difference between the prediction and the observed value normalized by the

Prediction-based Dynamic Energy Management in Wireless Sensor Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xue; Ma, Jun-Jie; Wang, Sheng; Bi, Dao-Wei

2007-01-01

Energy consumption is a critical constraint in wireless sensor networks. Focusing on the energy efficiency problem of wireless sensor networks, this paper proposes a method of prediction-based dynamic energy management. A particle filter was introduced to predict a target state, which was adopted to awaken wireless sensor nodes so that their sleep time was prolonged. With the distributed computing capability of nodes, an optimization approach of distributed genetic algorithm and simulated annealing was proposed to minimize the energy consumption of measurement. Considering the application of target tracking, we implemented target position prediction, node sleep scheduling and optimal sensing node selection. Moreover, a routing scheme of forwarding nodes was presented to achieve extra energy conservation. Experimental results of target tracking verified that energy-efficiency is enhanced by prediction-based dynamic energy management.

Prediction-based Dynamic Energy Management in Wireless Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dao-Wei Bi

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption is a critical constraint in wireless sensor networks. Focusing on the energy efficiency problem of wireless sensor networks, this paper proposes a method of prediction-based dynamic energy management. A particle filter was introduced to predict a target state, which was adopted to awaken wireless sensor nodes so that their sleep time was prolonged. With the distributed computing capability of nodes, an optimization approach of distributed genetic algorithm and simulated annealing was proposed to minimize the energy consumption of measurement. Considering the application of target tracking, we implemented target position prediction, node sleep scheduling and optimal sensing node selection. Moreover, a routing scheme of forwarding nodes was presented to achieve extra energy conservation. Experimental results of target tracking verified that energy-efficiency is enhanced by prediction-based dynamic energy management.

A dynamic particle filter-support vector regression method for reliability prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Zhao; Tao, Tao; ZhuoShu, Ding; Zio, Enrico

2013-01-01

Support vector regression (SVR) has been applied to time series prediction and some works have demonstrated the feasibility of its use to forecast system reliability. For accuracy of reliability forecasting, the selection of SVR's parameters is important. The existing research works on SVR's parameters selection divide the example dataset into training and test subsets, and tune the parameters on the training data. However, these fixed parameters can lead to poor prediction capabilities if the data of the test subset differ significantly from those of training. Differently, the novel method proposed in this paper uses particle filtering to estimate the SVR model parameters according to the whole measurement sequence up to the last observation instance. By treating the SVR training model as the observation equation of a particle filter, our method allows updating the SVR model parameters dynamically when a new observation comes. Because of the adaptability of the parameters to dynamic data pattern, the new PF–SVR method has superior prediction performance over that of standard SVR. Four application results show that PF–SVR is more robust than SVR to the decrease of the number of training data and the change of initial SVR parameter values. Also, even if there are trends in the test data different from those in the training data, the method can capture the changes, correct the SVR parameters and obtain good predictions. -- Highlights: •A dynamic PF–SVR method is proposed to predict the system reliability. •The method can adjust the SVR parameters according to the change of data. •The method is robust to the size of training data and initial parameter values. •Some cases based on both artificial and real data are studied. •PF–SVR shows superior prediction performance over standard SVR

Prediction degradation trend of nuclear equipment based on GM (1, 1)-Markov chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Liming; Zhao Xinwen; Cai Qi; Wu Guangjiang

2010-01-01

The degradation trend prediction results are important references for nuclear equipment in-service inspection and maintenance plan. But it is difficult to predict the nuclear equipment degradation trend accurately by the traditional statistical probability due to the small samples, lack of degradation data and the wavy degradation locus. Therefore, a method of equipment degradation trend prediction based on GM (1, l)-Markov chain was proposed in this paper. The method which makes use of the advantages of both GM (1, 1) method and Markov chain could improve the prediction precision of nuclear equipment degradation trend. The paper collected degradation data as samples and accurately predicted the degradation trend of canned motor pump. Compared with the prediction results by GM (1, 1) method, the prediction precision by GM (1, l)-Markov chain is more accurate. (authors)

Kernel-based whole-genome prediction of complex traits: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Morota, Gota; Gianola, Daniel

2014-01-01

Prediction of genetic values has been a focus of applied quantitative genetics since the beginning of the 20th century, with renewed interest following the advent of the era of whole genome-enabled prediction. Opportunities offered by the emergence of high-dimensional genomic data fueled by post-Sanger sequencing technologies, especially molecular markers, have driven researchers to extend Ronald Fisher and Sewall Wright's models to confront new challenges. In particular, kernel methods are gaining consideration as a regression method of choice for genome-enabled prediction. Complex traits are presumably influenced by many genomic regions working in concert with others (clearly so when considering pathways), thus generating interactions. Motivated by this view, a growing number of statistical approaches based on kernels attempt to capture non-additive effects, either parametrically or non-parametrically. This review centers on whole-genome regression using kernel methods applied to a wide range of quantitative traits of agricultural importance in animals and plants. We discuss various kernel-based approaches tailored to capturing total genetic variation, with the aim of arriving at an enhanced predictive performance in the light of available genome annotation information. Connections between prediction machines born in animal breeding, statistics, and machine learning are revisited, and their empirical prediction performance is discussed. Overall, while some encouraging results have been obtained with non-parametric kernels, recovering non-additive genetic variation in a validation dataset remains a challenge in quantitative genetics.

Kernel-based whole-genome prediction of complex traits: a review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gota eMorota

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Prediction of genetic values has been a focus of applied quantitative genetics since the beginning of the 20th century, with renewed interest following the advent of the era of whole genome-enabled prediction. Opportunities offered by the emergence of high-dimensional genomic data fueled by post-Sanger sequencing technologies, especially molecular markers, have driven researchers to extend Ronald Fisher and Sewall Wright's models to confront new challenges. In particular, kernel methods are gaining consideration as a regression method of choice for genome-enabled prediction. Complex traits are presumably influenced by many genomic regions working in concert with others (clearly so when considering pathways, thus generating interactions. Motivated by this view, a growing number of statistical approaches based on kernels attempt to capture non-additive effects, either parametrically or non-parametrically. This review centers on whole-genome regression using kernel methods applied to a wide range of quantitative traits of agricultural importance in animals and plants. We discuss various kernel-based approaches tailored to capturing total genetic variation, with the aim of arriving at an enhanced predictive performance in the light of available genome annotation information. Connections between prediction machines born in animal breeding, statistics, and machine learning are revisited, and their empirical prediction performance is discussed. Overall, while some encouraging results have been obtained with non-parametric kernels, recovering non-additive genetic variation in a validation dataset remains a challenge in quantitative genetics.

The Prediction of Metal Slopping in LD Converter on Base an Acoustic Signal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kostúr, K.

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The negative influences of slopping in a BOF are pollution to the environment. They give lower yield and cause equipment damage. The prediction of these phenomena is based on information processing from the measuring microphone. The change of frequency in certain range is done by a signal for the prediction of slopping. In this paper two methods for prediction of slopping are described. The first method is based on measuring and processing of sound emitted from the vessel during the blow. The second method utilizes Fourier’s transformation for processing of acoustic signal from sonic meter. The success rate of prediction has been evaluated by help of five criterions. It is possible to forecast the slopping on selected frequency (band. It is the essence of the second method, because this method has high success (criterion K1. Note, that criterion K5 defines acknowledgment of duration slopping. This criterion has the highest value.

Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

1999-01-01

This paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems, including open-loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed to be extended for the control...... of non-linear systems. GPC is model based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model, a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis...... on an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

Experimental method to predict avalanches based on neural networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. V. Zhdanov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents results of experimental use of currently available statistical methods to classify the avalanche‑dangerous precipitations and snowfalls in the Kishi Almaty river basin. The avalanche service of Kazakhstan uses graphical methods for prediction of avalanches developed by I.V. Kondrashov and E.I. Kolesnikov. The main objective of this work was to develop a modern model that could be used directly at the avalanche stations. Classification of winter precipitations into dangerous snowfalls and non‑dangerous ones was performed by two following ways: the linear discriminant function (canonical analysis and artificial neural networks. Observational data on weather and avalanches in the gorge Kishi Almaty in the gorge Kishi Almaty were used as a training sample. Coefficients for the canonical variables were calculated by the software «Statistica» (Russian version 6.0, and then the necessary formula had been constructed. The accuracy of the above classification was 96%. Simulator by the authors L.N. Yasnitsky and F.М. Cherepanov was used to learn the neural networks. The trained neural network demonstrated 98% accuracy of the classification. Prepared statistical models are recommended to be tested at the snow‑avalanche stations. Results of the tests will be used for estimation of the model quality and its readiness for the operational work. In future, we plan to apply these models for classification of the avalanche danger by the five‑point international scale.

PNN-based Rockburst Prediction Model and Its Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Zhou

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Rock burst is one of main engineering geological problems significantly threatening the safety of construction. Prediction of rock burst is always an important issue concerning the safety of workers and equipment in tunnels. In this paper, a novel PNN-based rock burst prediction model is proposed to determine whether rock burst will happen in the underground rock projects and how much the intensity of rock burst is. The probabilistic neural network (PNN is developed based on Bayesian criteria of multivariate pattern classification. Because PNN has the advantages of low training complexity, high stability, quick convergence, and simple construction, it can be well applied in the prediction of rock burst. Some main control factors, such as rocks’ maximum tangential stress, rocks’ uniaxial compressive strength, rocks’ uniaxial tensile strength, and elastic energy index of rock are chosen as the characteristic vector of PNN. PNN model is obtained through training data sets of rock burst samples which come from underground rock project in domestic and abroad. Other samples are tested with the model. The testing results agree with the practical records. At the same time, two real-world applications are used to verify the proposed method. The results of prediction are same as the results of existing methods, just same as what happened in the scene, which verifies the effectiveness and applicability of our proposed work.

Study on Air-cooled Self-humidifying PEMFC Control Method Based on Segmented Predict Negative Feedback Control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhiyu, You; Tao, Xu; Zhixiang, Liu; Yun, Peng; Weirong, Cheng

2014-01-01

In order to obtain the optimal output performance of the air-cooled self-humidifying proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), the operating temperature, the air flow, purge interval and some other parameters must be controlled strictly. As a key factor, the operating temperature mainly determines the optimal output performance of the fuel cell. However, some intrinsic issues such as long adjusting time, over-shoot still exist inevitably for the traditional PID temperature-controlled method in circumstances of the load variation. Consequently, output performance of PEMFC decreases because the operating temperature of the fuel cell fails to reach, and the corresponding lifetime of PEMFC is also reduced. In this study, a segmented predict negative feedback control method, based on the advance proportional control one, is proposed and verified by experiments to overcome the shortcomings of PID temperature control. The results demonstrate that the optimal output performance of PEMFC can be realized by utilizing the proposed method for temperature control due to its excellent properties, simple controlling and small over-shoot

Adaptive Granulation-Based Prediction for Energy System of Steel Industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tianyu; Han, Zhongyang; Zhao, Jun; Wang, Wei

2018-01-01

The flow variation tendency of byproduct gas plays a crucial role for energy scheduling in steel industry. An accurate prediction of its future trends will be significantly beneficial for the economic profits of steel enterprise. In this paper, a long-term prediction model for the energy system is proposed by providing an adaptive granulation-based method that considers the production semantics involved in the fluctuation tendency of the energy data, and partitions them into a series of information granules. To fully reflect the corresponding data characteristics of the formed unequal-length temporal granules, a 3-D feature space consisting of the timespan, the amplitude and the linetype is designed as linguistic descriptors. In particular, a collaborative-conditional fuzzy clustering method is proposed to granularize the tendency-based feature descriptors and specifically measure the amplitude variation of industrial data which plays a dominant role in the feature space. To quantify the performance of the proposed method, a series of real-world industrial data coming from the energy data center of a steel plant is employed to conduct the comparative experiments. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method successively satisfies the requirements of the practically viable prediction.

Predicting infant cortical surface development using a 4D varifold-based learning framework and local topography-based shape morphing.

Science.gov (United States)

Rekik, Islem; Li, Gang; Lin, Weili; Shen, Dinggang

2016-02-01

Longitudinal neuroimaging analysis methods have remarkably advanced our understanding of early postnatal brain development. However, learning predictive models to trace forth the evolution trajectories of both normal and abnormal cortical shapes remains broadly absent. To fill this critical gap, we pioneered the first prediction model for longitudinal developing cortical surfaces in infants using a spatiotemporal current-based learning framework solely from the baseline cortical surface. In this paper, we detail this prediction model and even further improve its performance by introducing two key variants. First, we use the varifold metric to overcome the limitations of the current metric for surface registration that was used in our preliminary study. We also extend the conventional varifold-based surface registration model for pairwise registration to a spatiotemporal surface regression model. Second, we propose a morphing process of the baseline surface using its topographic attributes such as normal direction and principal curvature sign. Specifically, our method learns from longitudinal data both the geometric (vertices positions) and dynamic (temporal evolution trajectories) features of the infant cortical surface, comprising a training stage and a prediction stage. In the training stage, we use the proposed varifold-based shape regression model to estimate geodesic cortical shape evolution trajectories for each training subject. We then build an empirical mean spatiotemporal surface atlas. In the prediction stage, given an infant, we select the best learnt features from training subjects to simultaneously predict the cortical surface shapes at all later timepoints, based on similarity metrics between this baseline surface and the learnt baseline population average surface atlas. We used a leave-one-out cross validation method to predict the inner cortical surface shape at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age from the baseline cortical surface shape at birth. Our

Load balancing prediction method of cloud storage based on analytic hierarchy process and hybrid hierarchical genetic algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Xiuze; Lin, Fan; Yang, Lvqing; Nie, Jing; Tan, Qian; Zeng, Wenhua; Zhang, Nian

2016-01-01

With the continuous expansion of the cloud computing platform scale and rapid growth of users and applications, how to efficiently use system resources to improve the overall performance of cloud computing has become a crucial issue. To address this issue, this paper proposes a method that uses an analytic hierarchy process group decision (AHPGD) to evaluate the load state of server nodes. Training was carried out by using a hybrid hierarchical genetic algorithm (HHGA) for optimizing a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN). The AHPGD makes the aggregative indicator of virtual machines in cloud, and become input parameters of predicted RBFNN. Also, this paper proposes a new dynamic load balancing scheduling algorithm combined with a weighted round-robin algorithm, which uses the predictive periodical load value of nodes based on AHPPGD and RBFNN optimized by HHGA, then calculates the corresponding weight values of nodes and makes constant updates. Meanwhile, it keeps the advantages and avoids the shortcomings of static weighted round-robin algorithm.

Machine learning methods to predict child posttraumatic stress: a proof of concept study.

Science.gov (United States)

Saxe, Glenn N; Ma, Sisi; Ren, Jiwen; Aliferis, Constantin

2017-07-10

The care of traumatized children would benefit significantly from accurate predictive models for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), using information available around the time of trauma. Machine Learning (ML) computational methods have yielded strong results in recent applications across many diseases and data types, yet they have not been previously applied to childhood PTSD. Since these methods have not been applied to this complex and debilitating disorder, there is a great deal that remains to be learned about their application. The first step is to prove the concept: Can ML methods - as applied in other fields - produce predictive classification models for childhood PTSD? Additionally, we seek to determine if specific variables can be identified - from the aforementioned predictive classification models - with putative causal relations to PTSD. ML predictive classification methods - with causal discovery feature selection - were applied to a data set of 163 children hospitalized with an injury and PTSD was determined three months after hospital discharge. At the time of hospitalization, 105 risk factor variables were collected spanning a range of biopsychosocial domains. Seven percent of subjects had a high level of PTSD symptoms. A predictive classification model was discovered with significant predictive accuracy. A predictive model constructed based on subsets of potentially causally relevant features achieves similar predictivity compared to the best predictive model constructed with all variables. Causal Discovery feature selection methods identified 58 variables of which 10 were identified as most stable. In this first proof-of-concept application of ML methods to predict childhood Posttraumatic Stress we were able to determine both predictive classification models for childhood PTSD and identify several causal variables. This set of techniques has great potential for enhancing the methodological toolkit in the field and future studies should seek to

Therapy Decision Support Based on Recommender System Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Gräßer, Felix; Beckert, Stefanie; Küster, Denise; Schmitt, Jochen; Abraham, Susanne; Malberg, Hagen; Zaunseder, Sebastian

2017-01-01

We present a system for data-driven therapy decision support based on techniques from the field of recommender systems. Two methods for therapy recommendation, namely, Collaborative Recommender and Demographic-based Recommender , are proposed. Both algorithms aim to predict the individual response to different therapy options using diverse patient data and recommend the therapy which is assumed to provide the best outcome for a specific patient and time, that is, consultation. The proposed methods are evaluated using a clinical database incorporating patients suffering from the autoimmune skin disease psoriasis. The Collaborative Recommender proves to generate both better outcome predictions and recommendation quality. However, due to sparsity in the data, this approach cannot provide recommendations for the entire database. In contrast, the Demographic-based Recommender performs worse on average but covers more consultations. Consequently, both methods profit from a combination into an overall recommender system.

Churn prediction based on text mining and CRM data analysis

OpenAIRE

Schatzmann, Anders; Heitz, Christoph; Münch, Thomas

2014-01-01

Within quantitative marketing, churn prediction on a single customer level has become a major issue. An extensive body of literature shows that, today, churn prediction is mainly based on structured CRM data. However, in the past years, more and more digitized customer text data has become available, originating from emails, surveys or scripts of phone calls. To date, this data source remains vastly untapped for churn prediction, and corresponding methods are rarely described in literature. ...

Genomic prediction in families of perennial ryegrass based on genotyping-by-sequencing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ashraf, Bilal

In this thesis we investigate the potential for genomic prediction in perennial ryegrass using genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) data. Association method based on family-based breeding systems was developed, genomic heritabilities, genomic prediction accurancies and effects of some key factors wer...... explored. Results show that low sequencing depth caused underestimation of allele substitution effects in GWAS and overestimation of genomic heritability in prediction studies. Other factors susch as SNP marker density, population structure and size of training population influenced accuracy of genomic...... prediction. Overall, GBS allows for genomic prediction in breeding families of perennial ryegrass and holds good potential to expedite genetic gain and encourage the application of genomic prediction...

Comparison of classification methods for voxel-based prediction of acute ischemic stroke outcome following intra-arterial intervention

Science.gov (United States)

Winder, Anthony J.; Siemonsen, Susanne; Flottmann, Fabian; Fiehler, Jens; Forkert, Nils D.

2017-03-01

Voxel-based tissue outcome prediction in acute ischemic stroke patients is highly relevant for both clinical routine and research. Previous research has shown that features extracted from baseline multi-parametric MRI datasets have a high predictive value and can be used for the training of classifiers, which can generate tissue outcome predictions for both intravenous and conservative treatments. However, with the recent advent and popularization of intra-arterial thrombectomy treatment, novel research specifically addressing the utility of predictive classi- fiers for thrombectomy intervention is necessary for a holistic understanding of current stroke treatment options. The aim of this work was to develop three clinically viable tissue outcome prediction models using approximate nearest-neighbor, generalized linear model, and random decision forest approaches and to evaluate the accuracy of predicting tissue outcome after intra-arterial treatment. Therefore, the three machine learning models were trained, evaluated, and compared using datasets of 42 acute ischemic stroke patients treated with intra-arterial thrombectomy. Classifier training utilized eight voxel-based features extracted from baseline MRI datasets and five global features. Evaluation of classifier-based predictions was performed via comparison to the known tissue outcome, which was determined in follow-up imaging, using the Dice coefficient and leave-on-patient-out cross validation. The random decision forest prediction model led to the best tissue outcome predictions with a mean Dice coefficient of 0.37. The approximate nearest-neighbor and generalized linear model performed equally suboptimally with average Dice coefficients of 0.28 and 0.27 respectively, suggesting that both non-linearity and machine learning are desirable properties of a classifier well-suited to the intra-arterial tissue outcome prediction problem.

Trust-based collective view prediction

CERN Document Server

Luo, Tiejian; Xu, Guandong; Zhou, Jia

2013-01-01

Collective view prediction is to judge the opinions of an active web user based on unknown elements by referring to the collective mind of the whole community. Content-based recommendation and collaborative filtering are two mainstream collective view prediction techniques. They generate predictions by analyzing the text features of the target object or the similarity of users' past behaviors. Still, these techniques are vulnerable to the artificially-injected noise data, because they are not able to judge the reliability and credibility of the information sources. Trust-based Collective View

Remaining useful life prediction based on noisy condition monitoring signals using constrained Kalman filter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, Junbo; Zhou, Shiyu; Sankavaram, Chaitanya; Du, Xinyu; Zhang, Yilu

2016-01-01

In this paper, a statistical prognostic method to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual units based on noisy condition monitoring signals is proposed. The prediction accuracy of existing data-driven prognostic methods depends on the capability of accurately modeling the evolution of condition monitoring (CM) signals. Therefore, it is inevitable that the RUL prediction accuracy depends on the amount of random noise in CM signals. When signals are contaminated by a large amount of random noise, RUL prediction even becomes infeasible in some cases. To mitigate this issue, a robust RUL prediction method based on constrained Kalman filter is proposed. The proposed method models the CM signals subject to a set of inequality constraints so that satisfactory prediction accuracy can be achieved regardless of the noise level of signal evolution. The advantageous features of the proposed RUL prediction method is demonstrated by both numerical study and case study with real world data from automotive lead-acid batteries. - Highlights: • A computationally efficient constrained Kalman filter is proposed. • Proposed filter is integrated into an online failure prognosis framework. • A set of proper constraints significantly improves the failure prediction accuracy. • Promising results are reported in the application of battery failure prognosis.

Copula based prediction models: an application to an aortic regurgitation study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoukri Mohamed M

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background: An important issue in prediction modeling of multivariate data is the measure of dependence structure. The use of Pearson's correlation as a dependence measure has several pitfalls and hence application of regression prediction models based on this correlation may not be an appropriate methodology. As an alternative, a copula based methodology for prediction modeling and an algorithm to simulate data are proposed. Methods: The method consists of introducing copulas as an alternative to the correlation coefficient commonly used as a measure of dependence. An algorithm based on the marginal distributions of random variables is applied to construct the Archimedean copulas. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to replicate datasets, estimate prediction model parameters and validate them using Lin's concordance measure. Results: We have carried out a correlation-based regression analysis on data from 20 patients aged 17–82 years on pre-operative and post-operative ejection fractions after surgery and estimated the prediction model: Post-operative ejection fraction = - 0.0658 + 0.8403 (Pre-operative ejection fraction; p = 0.0008; 95% confidence interval of the slope coefficient (0.3998, 1.2808. From the exploratory data analysis, it is noted that both the pre-operative and post-operative ejection fractions measurements have slight departures from symmetry and are skewed to the left. It is also noted that the measurements tend to be widely spread and have shorter tails compared to normal distribution. Therefore predictions made from the correlation-based model corresponding to the pre-operative ejection fraction measurements in the lower range may not be accurate. Further it is found that the best approximated marginal distributions of pre-operative and post-operative ejection fractions (using q-q plots are gamma distributions. The copula based prediction model is estimated as: Post -operative ejection fraction = - 0.0933 + 0

Normalized Rotational Multiple Yield Surface Framework (NRMYSF) stress-strain curve prediction method based on small strain triaxial test data on undisturbed Auckland residual clay soils

Science.gov (United States)

Noor, M. J. Md; Ibrahim, A.; Rahman, A. S. A.

2018-04-01

Small strain triaxial test measurement is considered to be significantly accurate compared to the external strain measurement using conventional method due to systematic errors normally associated with the test. Three submersible miniature linear variable differential transducer (LVDT) mounted on yokes which clamped directly onto the soil sample at equally 120° from the others. The device setup using 0.4 N resolution load cell and 16 bit AD converter was capable of consistently resolving displacement of less than 1µm and measuring axial strains ranging from less than 0.001% to 2.5%. Further analysis of small strain local measurement data was performed using new Normalized Multiple Yield Surface Framework (NRMYSF) method and compared with existing Rotational Multiple Yield Surface Framework (RMYSF) prediction method. The prediction of shear strength based on combined intrinsic curvilinear shear strength envelope using small strain triaxial test data confirmed the significant improvement and reliability of the measurement and analysis methods. Moreover, the NRMYSF method shows an excellent data prediction and significant improvement toward more reliable prediction of soil strength that can reduce the cost and time of experimental laboratory test.

Bearing Degradation Process Prediction Based on the Support Vector Machine and Markov Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shaojiang Dong

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Predicting the degradation process of bearings before they reach the failure threshold is extremely important in industry. This paper proposed a novel method based on the support vector machine (SVM and the Markov model to achieve this goal. Firstly, the features are extracted by time and time-frequency domain methods. However, the extracted original features are still with high dimensional and include superfluous information, and the nonlinear multifeatures fusion technique LTSA is used to merge the features and reduces the dimension. Then, based on the extracted features, the SVM model is used to predict the bearings degradation process, and the CAO method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the SVM model. After the bearing degradation process is predicted by SVM model, the Markov model is used to improve the prediction accuracy. The proposed method was validated by two bearing run-to-failure experiments, and the results proved the effectiveness of the methodology.

DASPfind: new efficient method to predict drug–target interactions

KAUST Repository

Ba Alawi, Wail

2016-03-16

Background Identification of novel drug–target interactions (DTIs) is important for drug discovery. Experimental determination of such DTIs is costly and time consuming, hence it necessitates the development of efficient computational methods for the accurate prediction of potential DTIs. To-date, many computational methods have been proposed for this purpose, but they suffer the drawback of a high rate of false positive predictions. Results Here, we developed a novel computational DTI prediction method, DASPfind. DASPfind uses simple paths of particular lengths inferred from a graph that describes DTIs, similarities between drugs, and similarities between the protein targets of drugs. We show that on average, over the four gold standard DTI datasets, DASPfind significantly outperforms other existing methods when the single top-ranked predictions are considered, resulting in 46.17 % of these predictions being correct, and it achieves 49.22 % correct single top ranked predictions when the set of all DTIs for a single drug is tested. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our method is best suited for predicting DTIs in cases of drugs with no known targets or with few known targets. We also show the practical use of DASPfind by generating novel predictions for the Ion Channel dataset and validating them manually. Conclusions DASPfind is a computational method for finding reliable new interactions between drugs and proteins. We show over six different DTI datasets that DASPfind outperforms other state-of-the-art methods when the single top-ranked predictions are considered, or when a drug with no known targets or with few known targets is considered. We illustrate the usefulness and practicality of DASPfind by predicting novel DTIs for the Ion Channel dataset. The validated predictions suggest that DASPfind can be used as an efficient method to identify correct DTIs, thus reducing the cost of necessary experimental verifications in the process of drug discovery. DASPfind

Prediction of welding shrinkage deformation of bridge steel box girder based on wavelet neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Yulong; Miao, Yunshui; Han, Jiaqi; Yan, Feiyun

2018-05-01

Aiming at the low accuracy of traditional forecasting methods such as linear regression method, this paper presents a prediction method for predicting the relationship between bridge steel box girder and its displacement with wavelet neural network. Compared with traditional forecasting methods, this scheme has better local characteristics and learning ability, which greatly improves the prediction ability of deformation. Through analysis of the instance and found that after compared with the traditional prediction method based on wavelet neural network, the rigid beam deformation prediction accuracy is higher, and is superior to the BP neural network prediction results, conform to the actual demand of engineering design.

A RSM-based predictive model to characterize heat treating parameters of D2 steel using combined Barkhausen noise and hysteresis loop methods

Science.gov (United States)

Kahrobaee, Saeed; Hejazi, Taha-Hossein

2017-07-01

Austenitizing and tempering temperatures are the effective characteristics in heat treating process of AISI D2 tool steel. Therefore, controlling them enables the heat treatment process to be designed more accurately which results in more balanced mechanical properties. The aim of this work is to develop a multiresponse predictive model that enables finding these characteristics based on nondestructive tests by a set of parameters of the magnetic Barkhausen noise technique and hysteresis loop method. To produce various microstructural changes, identical specimens from the AISI D2 steel sheet were austenitized in the range 1025-1130 °C, for 30 min, oil-quenched and finally tempered at various temperatures between 200 °C and 650 °C. A set of nondestructive data have been gathered based on general factorial design of experiments and used for training and testing the multiple response surface model. Finally, an optimization model has been proposed to achieve minimal error prediction. Results revealed that applying Barkhausen and hysteresis loop methods, simultaneously, coupling to the multiresponse model, has a potential to be used as a reliable and accurate nondestructive tool for predicting austenitizing and tempering temperatures (which, in turn, led to characterizing the microstructural changes) of the parts with unknown heat treating conditions.

Predicting human height by Victorian and genomic methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Aulchenko, Yurii S; Struchalin, Maksim V; Belonogova, Nadezhda M; Axenovich, Tatiana I; Weedon, Michael N; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Kayser, Manfred; Oostra, Ben A; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W; Borodin, Pavel M

2009-08-01

In the Victorian era, Sir Francis Galton showed that 'when dealing with the transmission of stature from parents to children, the average height of the two parents, ... is all we need care to know about them' (1886). One hundred and twenty-two years after Galton's work was published, 54 loci showing strong statistical evidence for association to human height were described, providing us with potential genomic means of human height prediction. In a population-based study of 5748 people, we find that a 54-loci genomic profile explained 4-6% of the sex- and age-adjusted height variance, and had limited ability to discriminate tall/short people, as characterized by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a family-based study of 550 people, with both parents having height measurements, we find that the Galtonian mid-parental prediction method explained 40% of the sex- and age-adjusted height variance, and showed high discriminative accuracy. We have also explored how much variance a genomic profile should explain to reach certain AUC values. For highly heritable traits such as height, we conclude that in applications in which parental phenotypic information is available (eg, medicine), the Victorian Galton's method will long stay unsurpassed, in terms of both discriminative accuracy and costs. For less heritable traits, and in situations in which parental information is not available (eg, forensics), genomic methods may provide an alternative, given that the variants determining an essential proportion of the trait's variation can be identified.

A novel method for improved accuracy of transcription factor binding site prediction

KAUST Repository

Khamis, Abdullah M.; Motwalli, Olaa Amin; Oliva, Romina; Jankovic, Boris R.; Medvedeva, Yulia; Ashoor, Haitham; Essack, Magbubah; Gao, Xin; Bajic, Vladimir B.

2018-01-01

Identifying transcription factor (TF) binding sites (TFBSs) is important in the computational inference of gene regulation. Widely used computational methods of TFBS prediction based on position weight matrices (PWMs) usually have high false positive rates. Moreover, computational studies of transcription regulation in eukaryotes frequently require numerous PWM models of TFBSs due to a large number of TFs involved. To overcome these problems we developed DRAF, a novel method for TFBS prediction that requires only 14 prediction models for 232 human TFs, while at the same time significantly improves prediction accuracy. DRAF models use more features than PWM models, as they combine information from TFBS sequences and physicochemical properties of TF DNA-binding domains into machine learning models. Evaluation of DRAF on 98 human ChIP-seq datasets shows on average 1.54-, 1.96- and 5.19-fold reduction of false positives at the same sensitivities compared to models from HOCOMOCO, TRANSFAC and DeepBind, respectively. This observation suggests that one can efficiently replace the PWM models for TFBS prediction by a small number of DRAF models that significantly improve prediction accuracy. The DRAF method is implemented in a web tool and in a stand-alone software freely available at http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/DRAF.

A novel method for improved accuracy of transcription factor binding site prediction

KAUST Repository

Khamis, Abdullah M.

2018-03-20

Identifying transcription factor (TF) binding sites (TFBSs) is important in the computational inference of gene regulation. Widely used computational methods of TFBS prediction based on position weight matrices (PWMs) usually have high false positive rates. Moreover, computational studies of transcription regulation in eukaryotes frequently require numerous PWM models of TFBSs due to a large number of TFs involved. To overcome these problems we developed DRAF, a novel method for TFBS prediction that requires only 14 prediction models for 232 human TFs, while at the same time significantly improves prediction accuracy. DRAF models use more features than PWM models, as they combine information from TFBS sequences and physicochemical properties of TF DNA-binding domains into machine learning models. Evaluation of DRAF on 98 human ChIP-seq datasets shows on average 1.54-, 1.96- and 5.19-fold reduction of false positives at the same sensitivities compared to models from HOCOMOCO, TRANSFAC and DeepBind, respectively. This observation suggests that one can efficiently replace the PWM models for TFBS prediction by a small number of DRAF models that significantly improve prediction accuracy. The DRAF method is implemented in a web tool and in a stand-alone software freely available at http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/DRAF.

The Prediction of Fatigue Life Based on Four Point Bending Test

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; Van de Ven, M.F.C.

2013-01-01

To be able to devise optimum strategies for maintenance and rehabilitation, it is essential to formulate an accurate prediction of pavement life and its maintenance needs. One of the pavement life prediction methods is based on the pavement's capability to sustain fatigue. If it were possible to

Prediction of Chloride Diffusion in Concrete Structure Using Meshless Methods

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Ling Yao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Degradation of RC structures due to chloride penetration followed by reinforcement corrosion is a serious problem in civil engineering. The numerical simulation methods at present mainly involve finite element methods (FEM, which are based on mesh generation. In this study, element-free Galerkin (EFG and meshless weighted least squares (MWLS methods are used to solve the problem of simulation of chloride diffusion in concrete. The range of a scaling parameter is presented using numerical examples based on meshless methods. One- and two-dimensional numerical examples validated the effectiveness and accuracy of the two meshless methods by comparing results obtained by MWLS with results computed by EFG and FEM and results calculated by an analytical method. A good agreement is obtained among MWLS and EFG numerical simulations and the experimental data obtained from an existing marine concrete structure. These results indicate that MWLS and EFG are reliable meshless methods that can be used for the prediction of chloride ingress in concrete structures.

Prediction methods environmental-effect reporting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonker, R.J.; Koester, H.W.

1987-12-01

This report provides a survey of prediction methods which can be applied to the calculation of emissions in cuclear-reactor accidents, in the framework of environment-effect reports (dutch m.e.r.) or risk analyses. Also emissions during normal operation are important for m.e.r.. These can be derived from measured emissions of power plants being in operation. Data concerning the latter are reported. The report consists of an introduction into reactor technology, among which a description of some reactor types, the corresponding fuel cycle and dismantling scenarios - a discussion of risk-analyses for nuclear power plants and the physical processes which can play a role during accidents - a discussion of prediction methods to be employed and the expected developments in this area - some background information. (aughor). 145 refs.; 21 figs.; 20 tabs

Therapy Decision Support Based on Recommender System Methods

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Felix Gräßer

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We present a system for data-driven therapy decision support based on techniques from the field of recommender systems. Two methods for therapy recommendation, namely, Collaborative Recommender and Demographic-based Recommender, are proposed. Both algorithms aim to predict the individual response to different therapy options using diverse patient data and recommend the therapy which is assumed to provide the best outcome for a specific patient and time, that is, consultation. The proposed methods are evaluated using a clinical database incorporating patients suffering from the autoimmune skin disease psoriasis. The Collaborative Recommender proves to generate both better outcome predictions and recommendation quality. However, due to sparsity in the data, this approach cannot provide recommendations for the entire database. In contrast, the Demographic-based Recommender performs worse on average but covers more consultations. Consequently, both methods profit from a combination into an overall recommender system.

Predictive Distribution of the Dirichlet Mixture Model by the Local Variational Inference Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Zhanyu; Leijon, Arne; Tan, Zheng-Hua

2014-01-01

the predictive likelihood of the new upcoming data, especially when the amount of training data is small. The Bayesian estimation of a Dirichlet mixture model (DMM) is, in general, not analytically tractable. In our previous work, we have proposed a global variational inference-based method for approximately...... calculating the posterior distributions of the parameters in the DMM analytically. In this paper, we extend our previous study for the DMM and propose an algorithm to calculate the predictive distribution of the DMM with the local variational inference (LVI) method. The true predictive distribution of the DMM...... is analytically intractable. By considering the concave property of the multivariate inverse beta function, we introduce an upper-bound to the true predictive distribution. As the global minimum of this upper-bound exists, the problem is reduced to seek an approximation to the true predictive distribution...

Research on bearing life prediction based on support vector machine and its application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun Chuang; Zhang Zhousuo; He Zhengjia

2011-01-01

Life prediction of rolling element bearing is the urgent demand in engineering practice, and the effective life prediction technique is beneficial to predictive maintenance. Support vector machine (SVM) is a novel machine learning method based on statistical learning theory, and is of advantage in prediction. This paper develops SVM-based model for bearing life prediction. The inputs of the model are features of bearing vibration signal and the output is the bearing running time-bearing failure time ratio. The model is built base on a few failed bearing data, and it can fuse information of the predicted bearing. So it is of advantage to bearing life prediction in practice. The model is applied to life prediction of a bearing, and the result shows the proposed model is of high precision.

Seminal quality prediction using data mining methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahoo, Anoop J; Kumar, Yugal

2014-01-01

fertility rate. In this paper, eight feature selection methods are applied on fertility dataset to find out a set of good features. The investigational results shows that childish diseases (0.079) and high fever features (0.057) has less impact on fertility rate while age (0.8685), season (0.843), surgical intervention (0.7683), alcohol consumption (0.5992), smoking habit (0.575), number of hours spent on setting (0.4366) and accident (0.5973) features have more impact. It is also observed that feature selection methods increase the accuracy of above mentioned techniques (multilayer perceptron 92%, support vector machine 91%, SVM+PSO 94%, Navie Bayes (Kernel) 89% and decision tree 89%) as compared to without feature selection methods (multilayer perceptron 86%, support vector machine 86%, SVM+PSO 85%, Navie Bayes (Kernel) 83% and decision tree 84%) which shows the applicability of feature selection methods in prediction. This paper lightens the application of artificial techniques in medical domain. From this paper, it can be concluded that data mining methods can be used to predict a person with or without disease based on environmental and lifestyle parameters/features rather than undergoing various medical test. In this paper, five data mining techniques are used to predict the fertility rate and among which SVM+PSO provide more accurate results than support vector machine and decision tree.

Knowledge base and neural network approach for protein secondary structure prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Maulika S; Mazumdar, Himanshu S

2014-11-21

Protein structure prediction is of great relevance given the abundant genomic and proteomic data generated by the genome sequencing projects. Protein secondary structure prediction is addressed as a sub task in determining the protein tertiary structure and function. In this paper, a novel algorithm, KB-PROSSP-NN, which is a combination of knowledge base and modeling of the exceptions in the knowledge base using neural networks for protein secondary structure prediction (PSSP), is proposed. The knowledge base is derived from a proteomic sequence-structure database and consists of the statistics of association between the 5-residue words and corresponding secondary structure. The predicted results obtained using knowledge base are refined with a Backpropogation neural network algorithm. Neural net models the exceptions of the knowledge base. The Q3 accuracy of 90% and 82% is achieved on the RS126 and CB396 test sets respectively which suggest improvement over existing state of art methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Research on the Prediction Model of CPU Utilization Based on ARIMA-BP Neural Network

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Wang Jina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The dynamic deployment technology of the virtual machine is one of the current cloud computing research focuses. The traditional methods mainly work after the degradation of the service performance that usually lag. To solve the problem a new prediction model based on the CPU utilization is constructed in this paper. A reference offered by the new prediction model of the CPU utilization is provided to the VM dynamic deployment process which will speed to finish the deployment process before the degradation of the service performance. By this method it not only ensure the quality of services but also improve the server performance and resource utilization. The new prediction method of the CPU utilization based on the ARIMA-BP neural network mainly include four parts: preprocess the collected data, build the predictive model of ARIMA-BP neural network, modify the nonlinear residuals of the time series by the BP prediction algorithm and obtain the prediction results by analyzing the above data comprehensively.

COMPUTER-BASED PREDICTION OF TOXICITY USING THE ELECTRON-CONFORMATIONAL METHOD. APPLICATION TO FRAGRANCE ALLERGENS AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia N. Gorinchoy

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The electron-conformational (EC method is employed for the toxicophore (Tph identification and quantitative prediction of toxicity using the training set of 24 compounds that are considered as fragrance allergens. The values of a=LD50 in oral exposure of rats were chosen as a measure of toxicity. EC parameters are evaluated on the base of conformational analysis and ab initio electronic structure calculations (including solvent influence. The Tph consists of four sites which in this series of compounds are represented by three carbon and one oxygen atoms, but may be any other atoms that have the same electronic and geometric features within the tolerance limits. The regression model taking into consideration the Tph flexibility, anti-Tph shielding, and influence of out-of-Tph functional groups predicts well the experimental values of toxicity (R2 = 0.93 with a reasonable leaveone- out cross-validation.

Electronic structure prediction via data-mining the empirical pseudopotential method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zenasni, H; Aourag, H [LEPM, URMER, Departement of Physics, University Abou Bakr Belkaid, Tlemcen 13000 (Algeria); Broderick, S R; Rajan, K [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011-2230 (United States)

2010-01-15

We introduce a new approach for accelerating the calculation of the electronic structure of new materials by utilizing the empirical pseudopotential method combined with data mining tools. Combining data mining with the empirical pseudopotential method allows us to convert an empirical approach to a predictive approach. Here we consider tetrahedrally bounded III-V Bi semiconductors, and through the prediction of form factors based on basic elemental properties we can model the band structure and charge density for these semi-conductors, for which limited results exist. This work represents a unique approach to modeling the electronic structure of a material which may be used to identify new promising semi-conductors and is one of the few efforts utilizing data mining at an electronic level. (Abstract Copyright [2010], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Decision tree-based learning to predict patient controlled analgesia consumption and readjustment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hu Yuh-Jyh

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Appropriate postoperative pain management contributes to earlier mobilization, shorter hospitalization, and reduced cost. The under treatment of pain may impede short-term recovery and have a detrimental long-term effect on health. This study focuses on Patient Controlled Analgesia (PCA, which is a delivery system for pain medication. This study proposes and demonstrates how to use machine learning and data mining techniques to predict analgesic requirements and PCA readjustment. Methods The sample in this study included 1099 patients. Every patient was described by 280 attributes, including the class attribute. In addition to commonly studied demographic and physiological factors, this study emphasizes attributes related to PCA. We used decision tree-based learning algorithms to predict analgesic consumption and PCA control readjustment based on the first few hours of PCA medications. We also developed a nearest neighbor-based data cleaning method to alleviate the class-imbalance problem in PCA setting readjustment prediction. Results The prediction accuracies of total analgesic consumption (continuous dose and PCA dose and PCA analgesic requirement (PCA dose only by an ensemble of decision trees were 80.9% and 73.1%, respectively. Decision tree-based learning outperformed Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Rotation Forest, and Naïve Bayesian classifiers in analgesic consumption prediction. The proposed data cleaning method improved the performance of every learning method in this study of PCA setting readjustment prediction. Comparative analysis identified the informative attributes from the data mining models and compared them with the correlates of analgesic requirement reported in previous works. Conclusion This study presents a real-world application of data mining to anesthesiology. Unlike previous research, this study considers a wider variety of predictive factors, including PCA

The trajectory prediction of spacecraft by grey method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Qiyue; Wang, Zhongyu; Zhang, Zili; Wang, Yanqing; Zhou, Weihu

2016-01-01

The real-time and high-precision trajectory prediction of a moving object is a core technology in the field of aerospace engineering. The real-time monitoring and tracking technology are also significant guarantees of aerospace equipment. A dynamic trajectory prediction method called grey dynamic filter (GDF) which combines the dynamic measurement theory and grey system theory is proposed. GDF can use coordinates of the current period to extrapolate coordinates of the following period. At meantime, GDF can also keep the instantaneity of measured coordinates by the metabolism model. In this paper the optimal model length of GDF is firstly selected to improve the prediction accuracy. Then the simulation for uniformly accelerated motion and variably accelerated motion is conducted. The simulation results indicate that the mean composite position error of GDF prediction is one-fifth to that of Kalman filter (KF). By using a spacecraft landing experiment, the prediction accuracy of GDF is compared with the KF method and the primitive grey method (GM). The results show that the motion trajectory of spacecraft predicted by GDF is much closer to actual trajectory than the other two methods. The mean composite position error calculated by GDF is one-eighth to KF and one-fifth to GM respectively. (paper)

Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fucheng Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

Prediction of Protein Structural Classes for Low-Similarity Sequences Based on Consensus Sequence and Segmented PSSM

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Yunyun Liang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Prediction of protein structural classes for low-similarity sequences is useful for understanding fold patterns, regulation, functions, and interactions of proteins. It is well known that feature extraction is significant to prediction of protein structural class and it mainly uses protein primary sequence, predicted secondary structure sequence, and position-specific scoring matrix (PSSM. Currently, prediction solely based on the PSSM has played a key role in improving the prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel method called CSP-SegPseP-SegACP by fusing consensus sequence (CS, segmented PsePSSM, and segmented autocovariance transformation (ACT based on PSSM. Three widely used low-similarity datasets (1189, 25PDB, and 640 are adopted in this paper. Then a 700-dimensional (700D feature vector is constructed and the dimension is decreased to 224D by using principal component analysis (PCA. To verify the performance of our method, rigorous jackknife cross-validation tests are performed on 1189, 25PDB, and 640 datasets. Comparison of our results with the existing PSSM-based methods demonstrates that our method achieves the favorable and competitive performance. This will offer an important complementary to other PSSM-based methods for prediction of protein structural classes for low-similarity sequences.

Offset Free Tracking Predictive Control Based on Dynamic PLS Framework

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Jin Xin

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper develops an offset free tracking model predictive control based on a dynamic partial least square (PLS framework. First, state space model is used as the inner model of PLS to describe the dynamic system, where subspace identification method is used to identify the inner model. Based on the obtained model, multiple independent model predictive control (MPC controllers are designed. Due to the decoupling character of PLS, these controllers are running separately, which is suitable for distributed control framework. In addition, the increment of inner model output is considered in the cost function of MPC, which involves integral action in the controller. Hence, the offset free tracking performance is guaranteed. The results of an industry background simulation demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed method.

Predicting Drug-Target Interactions Based on Small Positive Samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Pengwei; Chan, Keith C C; Hu, Yanxing

2018-01-01

A basic task in drug discovery is to find new medication in the form of candidate compounds that act on a target protein. In other words, a drug has to interact with a target and such drug-target interaction (DTI) is not expected to be random. Significant and interesting patterns are expected to be hidden in them. If these patterns can be discovered, new drugs are expected to be more easily discoverable. Currently, a number of computational methods have been proposed to predict DTIs based on their similarity. However, such as approach does not allow biochemical features to be directly considered. As a result, some methods have been proposed to try to discover patterns in physicochemical interactions. Since the number of potential negative DTIs are very high both in absolute terms and in comparison to that of the known ones, these methods are rather computationally expensive and they can only rely on subsets, rather than the full set, of negative DTIs for training and validation. As there is always a relatively high chance for negative DTIs to be falsely identified and as only partial subset of such DTIs is considered, existing approaches can be further improved to better predict DTIs. In this paper, we present a novel approach, called ODT (one class drug target interaction prediction), for such purpose. One main task of ODT is to discover association patterns between interacting drugs and proteins from the chemical structure of the former and the protein sequence network of the latter. ODT does so in two phases. First, the DTI-network is transformed to a representation by structural properties. Second, it applies a oneclass classification algorithm to build a prediction model based only on known positive interactions. We compared the best AUROC scores of the ODT with several state-of-art approaches on Gold standard data. The prediction accuracy of the ODT is superior in comparison with all the other methods at GPCRs dataset and Ion channels dataset. Performance

Predictive local receptive fields based respiratory motion tracking for motion-adaptive radiotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Yubo Wang; Tatinati, Sivanagaraja; Liyu Huang; Kim Jeong Hong; Shafiq, Ghufran; Veluvolu, Kalyana C; Khong, Andy W H

2017-07-01

Extracranial robotic radiotherapy employs external markers and a correlation model to trace the tumor motion caused by the respiration. The real-time tracking of tumor motion however requires a prediction model to compensate the latencies induced by the software (image data acquisition and processing) and hardware (mechanical and kinematic) limitations of the treatment system. A new prediction algorithm based on local receptive fields extreme learning machines (pLRF-ELM) is proposed for respiratory motion prediction. All the existing respiratory motion prediction methods model the non-stationary respiratory motion traces directly to predict the future values. Unlike these existing methods, the pLRF-ELM performs prediction by modeling the higher-level features obtained by mapping the raw respiratory motion into the random feature space of ELM instead of directly modeling the raw respiratory motion. The developed method is evaluated using the dataset acquired from 31 patients for two horizons in-line with the latencies of treatment systems like CyberKnife. Results showed that pLRF-ELM is superior to that of existing prediction methods. Results further highlight that the abstracted higher-level features are suitable to approximate the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of respiratory motion for accurate prediction.

Analysis of deep learning methods for blind protein contact prediction in CASP12.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Sheng; Sun, Siqi; Xu, Jinbo

2018-03-01

Here we present the results of protein contact prediction achieved in CASP12 by our RaptorX-Contact server, which is an early implementation of our deep learning method for contact prediction. On a set of 38 free-modeling target domains with a median family size of around 58 effective sequences, our server obtained an average top L/5 long- and medium-range contact accuracy of 47% and 44%, respectively (L = length). A complete implementation has an average accuracy of 59% and 57%, respectively. Our deep learning method formulates contact prediction as a pixel-level image labeling problem and simultaneously predicts all residue pairs of a protein using a combination of two deep residual neural networks, taking as input the residue conservation information, predicted secondary structure and solvent accessibility, contact potential, and coevolution information. Our approach differs from existing methods mainly in (1) formulating contact prediction as a pixel-level image labeling problem instead of an image-level classification problem; (2) simultaneously predicting all contacts of an individual protein to make effective use of contact occurrence patterns; and (3) integrating both one-dimensional and two-dimensional deep convolutional neural networks to effectively learn complex sequence-structure relationship including high-order residue correlation. This paper discusses the RaptorX-Contact pipeline, both contact prediction and contact-based folding results, and finally the strength and weakness of our method. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

pDHS-SVM: A prediction method for plant DNase I hypersensitive sites based on support vector machine.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shanxin; Zhou, Zhiping; Chen, Xinmeng; Hu, Yong; Yang, Lindong

2017-08-07

DNase I hypersensitive sites (DHSs) are accessible chromatin regions hypersensitive to cleavages by DNase I endonucleases. DHSs are indicative of cis-regulatory DNA elements (CREs), all of which play important roles in global gene expression regulation. It is helpful for discovering CREs by recognition of DHSs in genome. To accelerate the investigation, it is an important complement to develop cost-effective computational methods to identify DHSs. However, there is a lack of tools used for identifying DHSs in plant genome. Here we presented pDHS-SVM, a computational predictor to identify plant DHSs. To integrate the global sequence-order information and local DNA properties, reverse complement kmer and dinucleotide-based auto covariance of DNA sequences were applied to construct the feature space. In this work, fifteen physical-chemical properties of dinucleotides were used and Support Vector Machine (SVM) was employed. To further improve the performance of the predictor and extract an optimized subset of nucleotide physical-chemical properties positive for the DHSs, a heuristic nucleotide physical-chemical property selection algorithm was introduced. With the optimized subset of properties, experimental results of Arabidopsis thaliana and rice (Oryza sativa) showed that pDHS-SVM could achieve accuracies up to 87.00%, and 85.79%, respectively. The results indicated the effectiveness of proposed method for predicting DHSs. Furthermore, pDHS-SVM could provide a helpful complement for predicting CREs in plant genome. Our implementation of the novel proposed method pDHS-SVM is freely available as source code, at https://github.com/shanxinzhang/pDHS-SVM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel Approach for the Recognition and Prediction of Multi-Function Radar Behaviours Based on Predictive State Representations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ou, Jian; Chen, Yongguang; Zhao, Feng; Liu, Jin; Xiao, Shunping

2017-03-19

The extensive applications of multi-function radars (MFRs) have presented a great challenge to the technologies of radar countermeasures (RCMs) and electronic intelligence (ELINT). The recently proposed cognitive electronic warfare (CEW) provides a good solution, whose crux is to perceive present and future MFR behaviours, including the operating modes, waveform parameters, scheduling schemes, etc. Due to the variety and complexity of MFR waveforms, the existing approaches have the drawbacks of inefficiency and weak practicability in prediction. A novel method for MFR behaviour recognition and prediction is proposed based on predictive state representation (PSR). With the proposed approach, operating modes of MFR are recognized by accumulating the predictive states, instead of using fixed transition probabilities that are unavailable in the battlefield. It helps to reduce the dependence of MFR on prior information. And MFR signals can be quickly predicted by iteratively using the predicted observation, avoiding the very large computation brought by the uncertainty of future observations. Simulations with a hypothetical MFR signal sequence in a typical scenario are presented, showing that the proposed methods perform well and efficiently, which attests to their validity.

A consistency-based feature selection method allied with linear SVMs for HIV-1 protease cleavage site prediction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orkun Oztürk

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Predicting type-1 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1 protease cleavage site in protein molecules and determining its specificity is an important task which has attracted considerable attention in the research community. Achievements in this area are expected to result in effective drug design (especially for HIV-1 protease inhibitors against this life-threatening virus. However, some drawbacks (like the shortage of the available training data and the high dimensionality of the feature space turn this task into a difficult classification problem. Thus, various machine learning techniques, and specifically several classification methods have been proposed in order to increase the accuracy of the classification model. In addition, for several classification problems, which are characterized by having few samples and many features, selecting the most relevant features is a major factor for increasing classification accuracy. RESULTS: We propose for HIV-1 data a consistency-based feature selection approach in conjunction with recursive feature elimination of support vector machines (SVMs. We used various classifiers for evaluating the results obtained from the feature selection process. We further demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed method by comparing it with a state-of-the-art feature selection method applied on HIV-1 data, and we evaluated the reported results based on attributes which have been selected from different combinations. CONCLUSION: Applying feature selection on training data before realizing the classification task seems to be a reasonable data-mining process when working with types of data similar to HIV-1. On HIV-1 data, some feature selection or extraction operations in conjunction with different classifiers have been tested and noteworthy outcomes have been reported. These facts motivate for the work presented in this paper. SOFTWARE AVAILABILITY: The software is available at http

Comparison of classical statistical methods and artificial neural network in traffic noise prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nedic, Vladimir; Despotovic, Danijela; Cvetanovic, Slobodan; Despotovic, Milan; Babic, Sasa

2014-01-01

Traffic is the main source of noise in urban environments and significantly affects human mental and physical health and labor productivity. Therefore it is very important to model the noise produced by various vehicles. Techniques for traffic noise prediction are mainly based on regression analysis, which generally is not good enough to describe the trends of noise. In this paper the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of traffic noise is presented. As input variables of the neural network, the proposed structure of the traffic flow and the average speed of the traffic flow are chosen. The output variable of the network is the equivalent noise level in the given time period L eq . Based on these parameters, the network is modeled, trained and tested through a comparative analysis of the calculated values and measured levels of traffic noise using the originally developed user friendly software package. It is shown that the artificial neural networks can be a useful tool for the prediction of noise with sufficient accuracy. In addition, the measured values were also used to calculate equivalent noise level by means of classical methods, and comparative analysis is given. The results clearly show that ANN approach is superior in traffic noise level prediction to any other statistical method. - Highlights: • We proposed an ANN model for prediction of traffic noise. • We developed originally designed user friendly software package. • The results are compared with classical statistical methods. • The results are much better predictive capabilities of ANN model

Comparison of classical statistical methods and artificial neural network in traffic noise prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nedic, Vladimir, E-mail: vnedic@kg.ac.rs [Faculty of Philology and Arts, University of Kragujevac, Jovana Cvijića bb, 34000 Kragujevac (Serbia); Despotovic, Danijela, E-mail: ddespotovic@kg.ac.rs [Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Djure Pucara Starog 3, 34000 Kragujevac (Serbia); Cvetanovic, Slobodan, E-mail: slobodan.cvetanovic@eknfak.ni.ac.rs [Faculty of Economics, University of Niš, Trg kralja Aleksandra Ujedinitelja, 18000 Niš (Serbia); Despotovic, Milan, E-mail: mdespotovic@kg.ac.rs [Faculty of Engineering, University of Kragujevac, Sestre Janjic 6, 34000 Kragujevac (Serbia); Babic, Sasa, E-mail: babicsf@yahoo.com [College of Applied Mechanical Engineering, Trstenik (Serbia)

2014-11-15

Traffic is the main source of noise in urban environments and significantly affects human mental and physical health and labor productivity. Therefore it is very important to model the noise produced by various vehicles. Techniques for traffic noise prediction are mainly based on regression analysis, which generally is not good enough to describe the trends of noise. In this paper the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of traffic noise is presented. As input variables of the neural network, the proposed structure of the traffic flow and the average speed of the traffic flow are chosen. The output variable of the network is the equivalent noise level in the given time period L{sub eq}. Based on these parameters, the network is modeled, trained and tested through a comparative analysis of the calculated values and measured levels of traffic noise using the originally developed user friendly software package. It is shown that the artificial neural networks can be a useful tool for the prediction of noise with sufficient accuracy. In addition, the measured values were also used to calculate equivalent noise level by means of classical methods, and comparative analysis is given. The results clearly show that ANN approach is superior in traffic noise level prediction to any other statistical method. - Highlights: • We proposed an ANN model for prediction of traffic noise. • We developed originally designed user friendly software package. • The results are compared with classical statistical methods. • The results are much better predictive capabilities of ANN model.

An Artificial Neural Network Based Short-term Dynamic Prediction of Algae Bloom

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Yao Junyang

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of short-term prediction of algae bloom based on artificial neural network. Firstly, principal component analysis is applied to water environmental factors in algae bloom raceway ponds to get main factors that influence the formation of algae blooms. Then, a model of short-term dynamic prediction based on neural network is built with the current chlorophyll_a values as input and the chlorophyll_a values in the next moment as output to realize short-term dynamic prediction of algae bloom. Simulation results show that the model can realize short-term prediction of algae bloom effectively.

Integrative approaches to the prediction of protein functions based on the feature selection

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Lee Hyunju

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein function prediction has been one of the most important issues in functional genomics. With the current availability of various genomic data sets, many researchers have attempted to develop integration models that combine all available genomic data for protein function prediction. These efforts have resulted in the improvement of prediction quality and the extension of prediction coverage. However, it has also been observed that integrating more data sources does not always increase the prediction quality. Therefore, selecting data sources that highly contribute to the protein function prediction has become an important issue. Results We present systematic feature selection methods that assess the contribution of genome-wide data sets to predict protein functions and then investigate the relationship between genomic data sources and protein functions. In this study, we use ten different genomic data sources in Mus musculus, including: protein-domains, protein-protein interactions, gene expressions, phenotype ontology, phylogenetic profiles and disease data sources to predict protein functions that are labelled with Gene Ontology (GO terms. We then apply two approaches to feature selection: exhaustive search feature selection using a kernel based logistic regression (KLR, and a kernel based L1-norm regularized logistic regression (KL1LR. In the first approach, we exhaustively measure the contribution of each data set for each function based on its prediction quality. In the second approach, we use the estimated coefficients of features as measures of contribution of data sources. Our results show that the proposed methods improve the prediction quality compared to the full integration of all data sources and other filter-based feature selection methods. We also show that contributing data sources can differ depending on the protein function. Furthermore, we observe that highly contributing data sets can be similar among

Variable importance and prediction methods for longitudinal problems with missing variables.

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Iván Díaz

Full Text Available We present prediction and variable importance (VIM methods for longitudinal data sets containing continuous and binary exposures subject to missingness. We demonstrate the use of these methods for prognosis of medical outcomes of severe trauma patients, a field in which current medical practice involves rules of thumb and scoring methods that only use a few variables and ignore the dynamic and high-dimensional nature of trauma recovery. Well-principled prediction and VIM methods can provide a tool to make care decisions informed by the high-dimensional patient's physiological and clinical history. Our VIM parameters are analogous to slope coefficients in adjusted regressions, but are not dependent on a specific statistical model, nor require a certain functional form of the prediction regression to be estimated. In addition, they can be causally interpreted under causal and statistical assumptions as the expected outcome under time-specific clinical interventions, related to changes in the mean of the outcome if each individual experiences a specified change in the variable (keeping other variables in the model fixed. Better yet, the targeted MLE used is doubly robust and locally efficient. Because the proposed VIM does not constrain the prediction model fit, we use a very flexible ensemble learner (the SuperLearner, which returns a linear combination of a list of user-given algorithms. Not only is such a prediction algorithm intuitive appealing, it has theoretical justification as being asymptotically equivalent to the oracle selector. The results of the analysis show effects whose size and significance would have been not been found using a parametric approach (such as stepwise regression or LASSO. In addition, the procedure is even more compelling as the predictor on which it is based showed significant improvements in cross-validated fit, for instance area under the curve (AUC for a receiver-operator curve (ROC. Thus, given that 1 our VIM

Method and timing of tumor volume measurement for outcome prediction in cervical cancer using magnetic resonance imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayr, Nina A.; Taoka, Toshiaki; Yuh, William T.C.; Denning, Leah M.; Zhen, Weining K.; Paulino, Arnold C.; Gaston, Robert C.; Sorosky, Joel I.; Meeks, Sanford L.; Walker, Joan L.; Mannel, Robert S.; Buatti, John M.

2002-01-01

Purpose: Recently, imaging-based tumor volume before, during, and after radiation therapy (RT) has been shown to predict tumor response in cervical cancer. However, the effectiveness of different methods and timing of imaging-based tumor size assessment have not been investigated. The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive value for treatment outcome derived from simple diameter-based ellipsoid tumor volume measurement using orthogonal diameters (with ellipsoid computation) with that derived from more complex contour tracing/region-of-interest (ROI) analysis 3D tumor volumetry. Methods and Materials: Serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations were prospectively performed in 60 patients with advanced cervical cancer (Stages IB 2 -IVB/recurrent) at the start of RT, during early RT (20-25 Gy), mid-RT (45-50 Gy), and at follow-up (1-2 months after RT completion). ROI-based volumetry was derived by tracing the entire tumor region in each MR slice on the computer work station. For the diameter-based surrogate ''ellipsoid volume,'' the three orthogonal diameters (d 1 , d 2 , d 3 ) were measured on film hard copies to calculate volume as an ellipsoid (d 1 x d 2 x d 3 x π/6). Serial tumor volumes and regression rates determined by each method were correlated with local control, disease-free and overall survival, and the results were compared between the two measuring methods. Median post-therapy follow-up was 4.9 years (range, 2.0-8.2 years). Results: The best method and time point of tumor size measurement for the prediction of outcome was the tumor regression rate in the mid-therapy MRI examination (at 45-50 Gy) using 3D ROI volumetry. For the pre-RT measurement both the diameter-based method and ROI volumetry provided similar predictive accuracy, particularly for patients with small ( 3 ) and large (≥100 cm 3 ) pre-RT tumor size. However, the pre-RT tumor size measured by either method had much less predictive value for the intermediate-size (40

Prediction of drug synergy in cancer using ensemble-based machine learning techniques

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Singh, Harpreet; Rana, Prashant Singh; Singh, Urvinder

2018-04-01

Drug synergy prediction plays a significant role in the medical field for inhibiting specific cancer agents. It can be developed as a pre-processing tool for therapeutic successes. Examination of different drug-drug interaction can be done by drug synergy score. It needs efficient regression-based machine learning approaches to minimize the prediction errors. Numerous machine learning techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, LASSO, Elastic Nets, etc., have been used in the past to realize requirement as mentioned above. However, these techniques individually do not provide significant accuracy in drug synergy score. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to design a neuro-fuzzy-based ensembling approach. To achieve this, nine well-known machine learning techniques have been implemented by considering the drug synergy data. Based on the accuracy of each model, four techniques with high accuracy are selected to develop ensemble-based machine learning model. These models are Random forest, Fuzzy Rules Using Genetic Cooperative-Competitive Learning method (GFS.GCCL), Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Dynamic Evolving Neural-Fuzzy Inference System method (DENFIS). Ensembling is achieved by evaluating the biased weighted aggregation (i.e. adding more weights to the model with a higher prediction score) of predicted data by selected models. The proposed and existing machine learning techniques have been evaluated on drug synergy score data. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed method outperforms others in terms of accuracy, root mean square error and coefficient of correlation.

Data Analytics Based Dual-Optimized Adaptive Model Predictive Control for the Power Plant Boiler

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Zhenhao Tang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available To control the furnace temperature of a power plant boiler precisely, a dual-optimized adaptive model predictive control (DoAMPC method is designed based on the data analytics. In the proposed DoAMPC, an accurate predictive model is constructed adaptively by the hybrid algorithm of the least squares support vector machine and differential evolution method. Then, an optimization problem is constructed based on the predictive model and many constraint conditions. To control the boiler furnace temperature, the differential evolution method is utilized to decide the control variables by solving the optimization problem. The proposed method can adapt to the time-varying situation by updating the sample data. The experimental results based on practical data illustrate that the DoAMPC can control the boiler furnace temperature with errors of less than 1.5% which can meet the requirements of the real production process.

Methods and techniques for prediction of environmental impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-04-01

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is the procedure that helps decision makers understand the environmental implications of their decisions. The prediction of environmental effects or impact is an extremely important part of the EIA procedure and improvements in existing capabilities are needed. Considerable attention is paid within environmental impact assessment and in handbooks on EIA to methods for identifying and evaluating environmental impacts. However, little attention is given to the issue distribution of information on impact prediction methods. The quantitative or qualitative methods for the prediction of environmental impacts appear to be the two basic approaches for incorporating environmental concerns into the decision-making process. Depending on the nature of the proposed activity and the environment likely to be affected, a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods is used. Within environmental impact assessment, the accuracy of methods for the prediction of environmental impacts is of major importance while it provides for sound and well-balanced decision making. Pertinent and effective action to deal with the problems of environmental protection and the rational use of natural resources and sustainable development is only possible given objective methods and techniques for the prediction of environmental impact. Therefore, the Senior Advisers to ECE Governments on Environmental and Water Problems, decided to set up a task force, with the USSR as lead country, on methods and techniques for the prediction of environmental impacts in order to undertake a study to review and analyse existing methodological approaches and to elaborate recommendations to ECE Governments. The work of the task force was completed in 1990 and the resulting report, with all relevant background material, was approved by the Senior Advisers to ECE Governments on Environmental and Water Problems in 1991. The present report reflects the situation, state of

Incremental-hinge piping analysis methods for inelastic seismic response prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaquay, K.R.; Castle, W.R.; Larson, J.E.

1989-01-01

This paper proposes nonlinear seismic response prediction methods for nuclear piping systems based on simplified plastic hinge analyses. The simplified plastic hinge analyses utilize an incremental series of flat response spectrum loadings and replace yielded components with hinge elements when a predefined hinge moment is reached. These hinge moment values, developed by Rodabaugh, result in inelastic energy dissipation of the same magnitude as observed in seismic tests of piping components. Two definitions of design level equivalent loads are employed: one conservatively based on the peaks of the design acceleration response spectra, the other based on inelastic frequencies determined by the method of Krylov and Bogolyuboff recently extended by Lazzeri to piping. Both definitions account for piping system inelastic energy dissipation using Newmark-Hall inelastic response spectrum reduction factors and the displacement ductility results of the incremental-hinge analysis. Two ratchet-fatigue damage models are used: one developed by Rodabaugh that conservatively correlates Markl static fatigue expressions to seismic tests to failure of piping components; the other developed by Severud that uses the ratchet expression of Bree for elbows and Edmunds and Beer for straights, and defines ratchet-fatigue interaction using Coffin's ductility based fatigue equation. Comparisons of predicted behavior versus experimental results are provided for a high-level seismic test of a segment of a representative nuclear plant piping system. (orig.)

Sphinx: merging knowledge-based and ab initio approaches to improve protein loop prediction.

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Marks, Claire; Nowak, Jaroslaw; Klostermann, Stefan; Georges, Guy; Dunbar, James; Shi, Jiye; Kelm, Sebastian; Deane, Charlotte M

2017-05-01

Loops are often vital for protein function, however, their irregular structures make them difficult to model accurately. Current loop modelling algorithms can mostly be divided into two categories: knowledge-based, where databases of fragments are searched to find suitable conformations and ab initio, where conformations are generated computationally. Existing knowledge-based methods only use fragments that are the same length as the target, even though loops of slightly different lengths may adopt similar conformations. Here, we present a novel method, Sphinx, which combines ab initio techniques with the potential extra structural information contained within loops of a different length to improve structure prediction. We show that Sphinx is able to generate high-accuracy predictions and decoy sets enriched with near-native loop conformations, performing better than the ab initio algorithm on which it is based. In addition, it is able to provide predictions for every target, unlike some knowledge-based methods. Sphinx can be used successfully for the difficult problem of antibody H3 prediction, outperforming RosettaAntibody, one of the leading H3-specific ab initio methods, both in accuracy and speed. Sphinx is available at http://opig.stats.ox.ac.uk/webapps/sphinx. deane@stats.ox.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Empirical comparison of web-based antimicrobial peptide prediction tools.

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Gabere, Musa Nur; Noble, William Stafford

2017-07-01

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are innate immune molecules that exhibit activities against a range of microbes, including bacteria, fungi, viruses and protozoa. Recent increases in microbial resistance against current drugs has led to a concomitant increase in the need for novel antimicrobial agents. Over the last decade, a number of AMP prediction tools have been designed and made freely available online. These AMP prediction tools show potential to discriminate AMPs from non-AMPs, but the relative quality of the predictions produced by the various tools is difficult to quantify. We compiled two sets of AMP and non-AMP peptides, separated into three categories-antimicrobial, antibacterial and bacteriocins. Using these benchmark data sets, we carried out a systematic evaluation of ten publicly available AMP prediction methods. Among the six general AMP prediction tools-ADAM, CAMPR3(RF), CAMPR3(SVM), MLAMP, DBAASP and MLAMP-we find that CAMPR3(RF) provides a statistically significant improvement in performance, as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, relative to the other five methods. Surprisingly, for antibacterial prediction, the original AntiBP method significantly outperforms its successor, AntiBP2 based on one benchmark dataset. The two bacteriocin prediction tools, BAGEL3 and BACTIBASE, both provide very good performance and BAGEL3 outperforms its predecessor, BACTIBASE, on the larger of the two benchmarks. gaberemu@ngha.med.sa or william-noble@uw.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Background-Modeling-Based Adaptive Prediction for Surveillance Video Coding.

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Zhang, Xianguo; Huang, Tiejun; Tian, Yonghong; Gao, Wen

2014-02-01

The exponential growth of surveillance videos presents an unprecedented challenge for high-efficiency surveillance video coding technology. Compared with the existing coding standards that were basically developed for generic videos, surveillance video coding should be designed to make the best use of the special characteristics of surveillance videos (e.g., relative static background). To do so, this paper first conducts two analyses on how to improve the background and foreground prediction efficiencies in surveillance video coding. Following the analysis results, we propose a background-modeling-based adaptive prediction (BMAP) method. In this method, all blocks to be encoded are firstly classified into three categories. Then, according to the category of each block, two novel inter predictions are selectively utilized, namely, the background reference prediction (BRP) that uses the background modeled from the original input frames as the long-term reference and the background difference prediction (BDP) that predicts the current data in the background difference domain. For background blocks, the BRP can effectively improve the prediction efficiency using the higher quality background as the reference; whereas for foreground-background-hybrid blocks, the BDP can provide a better reference after subtracting its background pixels. Experimental results show that the BMAP can achieve at least twice the compression ratio on surveillance videos as AVC (MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding) high profile, yet with a slightly additional encoding complexity. Moreover, for the foreground coding performance, which is crucial to the subjective quality of moving objects in surveillance videos, BMAP also obtains remarkable gains over several state-of-the-art methods.

COMPARISON OF TREND PROJECTION METHODS AND BACKPROPAGATION PROJECTIONS METHODS TREND IN PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS DIED IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN TIMOR TENGAH REGENCY, NUSA TENGGARA

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Aleksius Madu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to predict the number of traffic accident victims who died in Timor Tengah Regency with Trend Projection method and Backpropagation method, and compare the two methods based on the degree of guilt and predict the number traffic accident victims in the Timor Tengah Regency for the coming year. This research was conducted in Timor Tengah Regency where data used in this study was obtained from Police Unit in Timor Tengah Regency. The data is on the number of traffic accidents in Timor Tengah Regency from 2000 – 2013, which is obtained by a quantitative analysis with Trend Projection and Backpropagation method. The results of the data analysis predicting the number of traffic accidents victims using Trend Projection method obtained the best model which is the quadratic trend model with equation Yk = 39.786 + (3.297 X + (0.13 X2. Whereas by using back propagation method, it is obtained the optimum network that consists of 2 inputs, 3 hidden screens, and 1 output. Based on the error rates obtained, Back propagation method is better than the Trend Projection method which means that the predicting accuracy with Back propagation method is the best method to predict the number of traffic accidents victims in Timor Tengah Regency. Thus obtained predicting the numbers of traffic accident victims for the next 5 years (Years 2014-2018 respectively - are 106 person, 115 person, 115 person, 119 person and 120 person.   Keywords: Trend Projection, Back propagation, Predicting.

HMMBinder: DNA-Binding Protein Prediction Using HMM Profile Based Features.

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Zaman, Rianon; Chowdhury, Shahana Yasmin; Rashid, Mahmood A; Sharma, Alok; Dehzangi, Abdollah; Shatabda, Swakkhar

2017-01-01

DNA-binding proteins often play important role in various processes within the cell. Over the last decade, a wide range of classification algorithms and feature extraction techniques have been used to solve this problem. In this paper, we propose a novel DNA-binding protein prediction method called HMMBinder. HMMBinder uses monogram and bigram features extracted from the HMM profiles of the protein sequences. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of HMM profile based features for the DNA-binding protein prediction problem. We applied Support Vector Machines (SVM) as a classification technique in HMMBinder. Our method was tested on standard benchmark datasets. We experimentally show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods found in the literature.

HMMBinder: DNA-Binding Protein Prediction Using HMM Profile Based Features

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Rianon Zaman

2017-01-01

Full Text Available DNA-binding proteins often play important role in various processes within the cell. Over the last decade, a wide range of classification algorithms and feature extraction techniques have been used to solve this problem. In this paper, we propose a novel DNA-binding protein prediction method called HMMBinder. HMMBinder uses monogram and bigram features extracted from the HMM profiles of the protein sequences. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of HMM profile based features for the DNA-binding protein prediction problem. We applied Support Vector Machines (SVM as a classification technique in HMMBinder. Our method was tested on standard benchmark datasets. We experimentally show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods found in the literature.

Multiplier method may be unreliable to predict the timing of temporary hemiepiphysiodesis for coronal angular deformity.

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Wu, Zhenkai; Ding, Jing; Zhao, Dahang; Zhao, Li; Li, Hai; Liu, Jianlin

2017-07-10

The multiplier method was introduced by Paley to calculate the timing for temporary hemiepiphysiodesis. However, this method has not been verified in terms of clinical outcome measure. We aimed to (1) predict the rate of angular correction per year (ACPY) at the various corresponding ages by means of multiplier method and verify the reliability based on the data from the published studies and (2) screen out risk factors for deviation of prediction. A comprehensive search was performed in the following electronic databases: Cochrane, PubMed, and EMBASE™. A total of 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. If the actual value of ACPY from the collected date was located out of the range of the predicted value based on the multiplier method, it was considered as the deviation of prediction (DOP). The associations of patient characteristics with DOP were assessed with the use of univariate logistic regression. Only one article was evaluated as moderate evidence; the remaining articles were evaluated as poor quality. The rate of DOP was 31.82%. In the detailed individual data of included studies, the rate of DOP was 55.44%. The multiplier method is not reliable in predicting the timing for temporary hemiepiphysiodesis, even though it is prone to be more reliable for the younger patients with idiopathic genu coronal deformity.

Improved method for SNR prediction in machine-learning-based test

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sheng, Xiaoqin; Kerkhoff, Hans G.

2010-01-01

This paper applies an improved method for testing the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of Analogue-to-Digital Converters (ADC). In previous work, a noisy and nonlinear pulse signal is exploited as the input stimulus to obtain the signature results of ADC. By applying a machine-learning-based approach,

Capacity Prediction Model Based on Limited Priority Gap-Acceptance Theory at Multilane Roundabouts

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Zhaowei Qu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Capacity is an important design parameter for roundabouts, and it is the premise of computing their delay and queue. Roundabout capacity has been studied for decades, and empirical regression model and gap-acceptance model are the two main methods to predict it. Based on gap-acceptance theory, by considering the effect of limited priority, especially the relationship between limited priority factor and critical gap, a modified model was built to predict the roundabout capacity. We then compare the results between Raff’s method and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE method, and the MLE method was used to predict the critical gaps. Finally, the predicted capacities from different models were compared, with the observed capacity by field surveys, which verifies the performance of the proposed model.

A copula-based sampling method for data-driven prognostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xi, Zhimin; Jing, Rong; Wang, Pingfeng; Hu, Chao

2014-01-01

This paper develops a Copula-based sampling method for data-driven prognostics. The method essentially consists of an offline training process and an online prediction process: (i) the offline training process builds a statistical relationship between the failure time and the time realizations at specified degradation levels on the basis of off-line training data sets; and (ii) the online prediction process identifies probable failure times for online testing units based on the statistical model constructed in the offline process and the online testing data. Our contributions in this paper are three-fold, namely the definition of a generic health index system to quantify the health degradation of an engineering system, the construction of a Copula-based statistical model to learn the statistical relationship between the failure time and the time realizations at specified degradation levels, and the development of a simulation-based approach for the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). Two engineering case studies, namely the electric cooling fan health prognostics and the 2008 IEEE PHM challenge problem, are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • We develop a novel mechanism for data-driven prognostics. • A generic health index system quantifies health degradation of engineering systems. • Off-line training model is constructed based on the Bayesian Copula model. • Remaining useful life is predicted from a simulation-based approach

New prediction of chaotic time series based on local Lyapunov exponent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Yong

2013-01-01

A new method of predicting chaotic time series is presented based on a local Lyapunov exponent, by quantitatively measuring the exponential rate of separation or attraction of two infinitely close trajectories in state space. After reconstructing state space from one-dimensional chaotic time series, neighboring multiple-state vectors of the predicting point are selected to deduce the prediction formula by using the definition of the local Lyapunov exponent. Numerical simulations are carried out to test its effectiveness and verify its higher precision over two older methods. The effects of the number of referential state vectors and added noise on forecasting accuracy are also studied numerically. (general)

New prediction methods for collaborative filtering

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Hasan BULUT

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Companies, in particular e-commerce companies, aims to increase customer satisfaction, hence in turn increase their profits, using recommender systems. Recommender Systems are widely used nowadays and they provide strategic advantages to the companies that use them. These systems consist of different stages. In the first stage, the similarities between the active user and other users are computed using the user-product ratings matrix. Then, the neighbors of the active user are found from these similarities. In prediction calculation stage, the similarities computed at the first stage are used to generate the weight vector of the closer neighbors. Neighbors affect the prediction value by the corresponding value of the weight vector. In this study, we developed two new methods for the prediction calculation stage which is the last stage of collaborative filtering. The performance of these methods are measured with evaluation metrics used in the literature and compared with other studies in this field.

A data-driven prediction method for fast-slow systems

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Groth, Andreas; Chekroun, Mickael; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Ghil, Michael

2016-04-01

In this work, we present a prediction method for processes that exhibit a mixture of variability on low and fast scales. The method relies on combining empirical model reduction (EMR) with singular spectrum analysis (SSA). EMR is a data-driven methodology for constructing stochastic low-dimensional models that account for nonlinearity and serial correlation in the estimated noise, while SSA provides a decomposition of the complex dynamics into low-order components that capture spatio-temporal behavior on different time scales. Our study focuses on the data-driven modeling of partial observations from dynamical systems that exhibit power spectra with broad peaks. The main result in this talk is that the combination of SSA pre-filtering with EMR modeling improves, under certain circumstances, the modeling and prediction skill of such a system, as compared to a standard EMR prediction based on raw data. Specifically, it is the separation into "fast" and "slow" temporal scales by the SSA pre-filtering that achieves the improvement. We show, in particular that the resulting EMR-SSA emulators help predict intermittent behavior such as rapid transitions between specific regions of the system's phase space. This capability of the EMR-SSA prediction will be demonstrated on two low-dimensional models: the Rössler system and a Lotka-Volterra model for interspecies competition. In either case, the chaotic dynamics is produced through a Shilnikov-type mechanism and we argue that the latter seems to be an important ingredient for the good prediction skills of EMR-SSA emulators. Shilnikov-type behavior has been shown to arise in various complex geophysical fluid models, such as baroclinic quasi-geostrophic flows in the mid-latitude atmosphere and wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation models. This pervasiveness of the Shilnikow mechanism of fast-slow transition opens interesting perspectives for the extension of the proposed EMR-SSA approach to more realistic situations.

Settlement Prediction of Road Soft Foundation Using a Support Vector Machine (SVM Based on Measured Data

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Yu Huiling

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The suppor1t vector machine (SVM is a relatively new artificial intelligence technique which is increasingly being applied to geotechnical problems and is yielding encouraging results. SVM is a new machine learning method based on the statistical learning theory. A case study based on road foundation engineering project shows that the forecast results are in good agreement with the measured data. The SVM model is also compared with BP artificial neural network model and traditional hyperbola method. The prediction results indicate that the SVM model has a better prediction ability than BP neural network model and hyperbola method. Therefore, settlement prediction based on SVM model can reflect actual settlement process more correctly. The results indicate that it is effective and feasible to use this method and the nonlinear mapping relation between foundation settlement and its influence factor can be expressed well. It will provide a new method to predict foundation settlement.

A method for predicting monthly rainfall patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1987-11-01

A brief survey is made of previous methods that have been used to predict rainfall trends or drought spells in different parts of the earth. The basic methodologies or theoretical strategies used in these methods are compared with contents of a recent theory of Sun-Weather/Climate links (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987a; 1987b; 1987c) which point towards the possibility of practical climatic predictions. It is shown that not only is the theoretical basis of each of these methodologies or strategies fully incorporated into the above-named theory, but also this theory may be used to develop a technique by which future monthly rainfall patterns can be predicted in further and finer details. We describe the latter technique and then illustrate its workability by means of predictions made on monthly rainfall patterns in some East African meteorological stations. (author). 43 refs, 11 figs, 2 tabs

Residual lifetime prediction for lithium-ion battery based on functional principal component analysis and Bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Yujie; Lu, Chen; Li, Tieying; Tao, Laifa

2015-01-01

Existing methods for predicting lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery residual lifetime mostly depend on a priori knowledge on aging mechanism, the use of chemical or physical formulation and analytical battery models. This dependence is usually difficult to determine in practice, which restricts the application of these methods. In this study, we propose a new prediction method for Li-ion battery residual lifetime evaluation based on FPCA (functional principal component analysis) and Bayesian approach. The proposed method utilizes FPCA to construct a nonparametric degradation model for Li-ion battery, based on which the residual lifetime and the corresponding confidence interval can be evaluated. Furthermore, an empirical Bayes approach is utilized to achieve real-time updating of the degradation model and concurrently determine residual lifetime distribution. Based on Bayesian updating, a more accurate prediction result and a more precise confidence interval are obtained. Experiments are implemented based on data provided by the NASA Ames Prognostics Center of Excellence. Results confirm that the proposed prediction method performs well in real-time battery residual lifetime prediction. - Highlights: • Capacity is considered functional and FPCA is utilized to extract more information. • No features required which avoids drawbacks induced by feature extraction. • A good combination of both population and individual information. • Avoiding complex aging mechanism and accurate analytical models of batteries. • Easily applicable to different batteries for life prediction and RLD calculation.

Evolutionary game theory using agent-based methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Adami, Christoph; Schossau, Jory; Hintze, Arend

2016-12-01

Evolutionary game theory is a successful mathematical framework geared towards understanding the selective pressures that affect the evolution of the strategies of agents engaged in interactions with potential conflicts. While a mathematical treatment of the costs and benefits of decisions can predict the optimal strategy in simple settings, more realistic settings such as finite populations, non-vanishing mutations rates, stochastic decisions, communication between agents, and spatial interactions, require agent-based methods where each agent is modeled as an individual, carries its own genes that determine its decisions, and where the evolutionary outcome can only be ascertained by evolving the population of agents forward in time. While highlighting standard mathematical results, we compare those to agent-based methods that can go beyond the limitations of equations and simulate the complexity of heterogeneous populations and an ever-changing set of interactors. We conclude that agent-based methods can predict evolutionary outcomes where purely mathematical treatments cannot tread (for example in the weak selection-strong mutation limit), but that mathematics is crucial to validate the computational simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Liaison: an Example-Based Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Greefhorst, A.P.M.; Bosch, A.P.J. van den

2016-01-01

Predicting liaison in French is a non-trivial problem to model. We compare a memory-based machine-learning algorithm with a rule-based baseline. The memory-based learner is trained to predict whether liaison occurs between two words on the basis of lexical, orthographic, morphosyntactic, and

An entropy-based improved k-top scoring pairs (TSP) method for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An entropy-based improved k-top scoring pairs (TSP) (Ik-TSP) method was presented in this study for the classification and prediction of human cancers based on gene-expression data. We compared Ik-TSP classifiers with 5 different machine learning methods and the k-TSP method based on 3 different feature selection ...

MO-G-304-02: Knowledge Based DVH Prediction Using a Geometric Dose Transform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Staub, D; Wang, J; Jiang, S

2015-01-01

Purpose: To demonstrate a novel method for predicting patient dose-volume histograms (DVHs) using a prior database of optimized radiotherapy treatment plans. Such predicted DVHs could be useful for automating treatment planning. Methods: Our initial demonstration utilized a database of 100 prostate intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) data-sets. Each data-set contained a CT image with contours of the planning target volume (PTV), rectum, and bladder, the parameters of a clinically approved IMRT plan, and a corresponding simulated dose distribution. We applied a novel geometric transformation to remove the influence of the PTV size, shape, and location on the dose distribution. We termed the transformed distribution the geometrically normalized dose distribution (GNDD). This normalization transform was applied to 80 data-sets randomly selected from the database, and a population GNDD was computed as the average. Next, the population GNDD was mapped onto each of the remaining 20 patient datasets using the reverse of the geometric normalization transform, and predicted DVHs were calculated from the reverse transformed dose distributions (GNDD-DVHs). In addition, a state of the art machine learning based method from the literature was tested for comparison. Results: DVH prediction accuracy was quantified by calculating the relative root mean squared error (rRMSE) on predicted DVHs for the 20 test patients using their known DVHs. For bladder, rectum, and PTV average rRMSEs for the GNDD method were 9.7 ± 4.2%, 13.9 ± 6.0%, and 2.3 ± 0.5% respectively. Prediction results using GNDD were roughly equivalent to that from the machine learning method. Conclusion: We developed a new method for predicting DVH curves from a database of prior patient plans. We demonstrated that our simple approach achieves accuracy comparable to a method using a complicated machine learning based approach

An Approximate Method for Pitch-Damping Prediction

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Danberg, James

2003-01-01

...) method for predicting the pitch-damping coefficients has been employed. The CFD method provides important details necessary to derive the correlation functions that are unavailable from the current experimental database...

Estimation of genetic connectedness diagnostics based on prediction errors without the prediction error variance-covariance matrix.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, John B; Dodds, Ken G; Lee, Michael A

2017-03-02

An important issue in genetic evaluation is the comparability of random effects (breeding values), particularly between pairs of animals in different contemporary groups. This is usually referred to as genetic connectedness. While various measures of connectedness have been proposed in the literature, there is general agreement that the most appropriate measure is some function of the prediction error variance-covariance matrix. However, obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix is computationally demanding for large-scale genetic evaluations. Many alternative statistics have been proposed that avoid the computational cost of obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix, such as counts of genetic links between contemporary groups, gene flow matrices, and functions of the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects. In this paper, we show that a correction to the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects will produce the exact prediction error variance-covariance matrix averaged by contemporary group for univariate models in the presence of single or multiple fixed effects and one random effect. We demonstrate the correction for a series of models and show that approximations to the prediction error matrix based solely on the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects are inappropriate in certain circumstances. Our method allows for the calculation of a connectedness measure based on the prediction error variance-covariance matrix by calculating only the variance-covariance matrix of estimated fixed effects. Since the number of fixed effects in genetic evaluation is usually orders of magnitudes smaller than the number of random effect levels, the computational requirements for our method should be reduced.

Epitope prediction methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karosiene, Edita

Analysis. The chapter provides detailed explanations on how to use different methods for T cell epitope discovery research, explaining how input should be given as well as how to interpret the output. In the last chapter, I present the results of a bioinformatics analysis of epitopes from the yellow fever...... peptide-MHC interactions. Furthermore, using yellow fever virus epitopes, we demonstrated the power of the %Rank score when compared with the binding affinity score of MHC prediction methods, suggesting that this score should be considered to be used for selecting potential T cell epitopes. In summary...... immune responses. Therefore, it is of great importance to be able to identify peptides that bind to MHC molecules, in order to understand the nature of immune responses and discover T cell epitopes useful for designing new vaccines and immunotherapies. MHC molecules in humans, referred to as human...

Degradation Prediction Model Based on a Neural Network with Dynamic Windows

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xinghui; Xiao, Lei; Kang, Jianshe

2015-01-01

Tracking degradation of mechanical components is very critical for effective maintenance decision making. Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a widely used form of degradation prediction. RUL prediction methods when enough run-to-failure condition monitoring data can be used have been fully researched, but for some high reliability components, it is very difficult to collect run-to-failure condition monitoring data, i.e., from normal to failure. Only a certain number of condition indicators in certain period can be used to estimate RUL. In addition, some existing prediction methods have problems which block RUL estimation due to poor extrapolability. The predicted value converges to a certain constant or fluctuates in certain range. Moreover, the fluctuant condition features also have bad effects on prediction. In order to solve these dilemmas, this paper proposes a RUL prediction model based on neural network with dynamic windows. This model mainly consists of three steps: window size determination by increasing rate, change point detection and rolling prediction. The proposed method has two dominant strengths. One is that the proposed approach does not need to assume the degradation trajectory is subject to a certain distribution. The other is it can adapt to variation of degradation indicators which greatly benefits RUL prediction. Finally, the performance of the proposed RUL prediction model is validated by real field data and simulation data. PMID:25806873

A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao Weixian

2000-03-01

Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan LI

2018-01-01

Full Text Available High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.

Novel Approach for the Recognition and Prediction of Multi-Function Radar Behaviours Based on Predictive State Representations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Ou

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The extensive applications of multi-function radars (MFRs have presented a great challenge to the technologies of radar countermeasures (RCMs and electronic intelligence (ELINT. The recently proposed cognitive electronic warfare (CEW provides a good solution, whose crux is to perceive present and future MFR behaviours, including the operating modes, waveform parameters, scheduling schemes, etc. Due to the variety and complexity of MFR waveforms, the existing approaches have the drawbacks of inefficiency and weak practicability in prediction. A novel method for MFR behaviour recognition and prediction is proposed based on predictive state representation (PSR. With the proposed approach, operating modes of MFR are recognized by accumulating the predictive states, instead of using fixed transition probabilities that are unavailable in the battlefield. It helps to reduce the dependence of MFR on prior information. And MFR signals can be quickly predicted by iteratively using the predicted observation, avoiding the very large computation brought by the uncertainty of future observations. Simulations with a hypothetical MFR signal sequence in a typical scenario are presented, showing that the proposed methods perform well and efficiently, which attests to their validity.

FREEZING AND THAWING TIME PREDICTION METHODS OF FOODS II: NUMARICAL METHODS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yahya TÜLEK

1999-03-01

Full Text Available Freezing is one of the excellent methods for the preservation of foods. If freezing and thawing processes and frozen storage method are carried out correctly, the original characteristics of the foods can remain almost unchanged over an extended periods of time. It is very important to determine the freezing and thawing time period of the foods, as they strongly influence the both quality of food material and process productivity and the economy. For developing a simple and effectively usable mathematical model, less amount of process parameters and physical properties should be enrolled in calculations. But it is a difficult to have all of these in one prediction method. For this reason, various freezing and thawing time prediction methods were proposed in literature and research studies have been going on.

基于业务预测的时隙分配算法%Timeslot Assign Method Based on Business Predicts

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

徐达; 张有志; 郝学坤

2016-01-01

The resource of MF⁃TDMA satellite systems is very precious,how efficiently assign and make use of channel resources of satellite communication system,it is necessary to design an algoritm which can reduce satellite communication delay.This paper puts forward a timeslot assign method based on business predicts in MF⁃TDMA satellite communication system. This method performs the business predict of next moment based on the queue size and business arrival rate and the master station performs in advance channel resource allocation of next moment according to the business predict value. The simulation results show that the timeslot assign method can effectively reduce the transmission delay and improve the channel resource utilization.%多频－时分多址（ MF⁃TDMA）卫星通信系统中信道资源十分宝贵，如何高效地分配和利用卫星通信系统信道资源，研究出一种可以降低卫星通信时延的算法很有必要。提出了一种MF⁃TDMA卫星通信系统中基于业务预测的时隙分配方法，通过终端缓存区域的队列长度和业务到达率来进行下一时刻的业务预测，中心站根据业务预测值来提前进行下一时刻信道资源的分配。仿真结果表明，通过基于业务预测的时隙分配算法可以有效降低传输时延，提高信道资源的利用率。

Life prediction for high temperature low cycle fatigue of two kinds of titanium alloys based on exponential function

Science.gov (United States)

Mu, G. Y.; Mi, X. Z.; Wang, F.

2018-01-01

The high temperature low cycle fatigue tests of TC4 titanium alloy and TC11 titanium alloy are carried out under strain controlled. The relationships between cyclic stress-life and strain-life are analyzed. The high temperature low cycle fatigue life prediction model of two kinds of titanium alloys is established by using Manson-Coffin method. The relationship between failure inverse number and plastic strain range presents nonlinear in the double logarithmic coordinates. Manson-Coffin method assumes that they have linear relation. Therefore, there is bound to be a certain prediction error by using the Manson-Coffin method. In order to solve this problem, a new method based on exponential function is proposed. The results show that the fatigue life of the two kinds of titanium alloys can be predicted accurately and effectively by using these two methods. Prediction accuracy is within ±1.83 times scatter zone. The life prediction capability of new methods based on exponential function proves more effective and accurate than Manson-Coffin method for two kinds of titanium alloys. The new method based on exponential function can give better fatigue life prediction results with the smaller standard deviation and scatter zone than Manson-Coffin method. The life prediction results of two methods for TC4 titanium alloy prove better than TC11 titanium alloy.

Modeling and Control of CSTR using Model based Neural Network Predictive Control

OpenAIRE

Shrivastava, Piyush

2012-01-01

This paper presents a predictive control strategy based on neural network model of the plant is applied to Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR). This system is a highly nonlinear process; therefore, a nonlinear predictive method, e.g., neural network predictive control, can be a better match to govern the system dynamics. In the paper, the NN model and the way in which it can be used to predict the behavior of the CSTR process over a certain prediction horizon are described, and some commen...

A Sensor Dynamic Measurement Error Prediction Model Based on NAPSO-SVM.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Minlan; Jiang, Lan; Jiang, Dingde; Li, Fei; Song, Houbing

2018-01-15

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective way to improve sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, and support vector machine (SVM) is often used for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Traditionally, the SVM parameters were always set manually, which cannot ensure the model's performance. In this paper, a SVM method based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Natural selection and simulated annealing are added in the PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optima. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM's parameters: the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models' performances. The experimental results show that among the three tested algorithms the NAPSO-SVM method has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors, and it is an effective method for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors.

An Improved Method of Predicting Extinction Coefficients for the Determination of Protein Concentration.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilario, Eric C; Stern, Alan; Wang, Charlie H; Vargas, Yenny W; Morgan, Charles J; Swartz, Trevor E; Patapoff, Thomas W

2017-01-01

Concentration determination is an important method of protein characterization required in the development of protein therapeutics. There are many known methods for determining the concentration of a protein solution, but the easiest to implement in a manufacturing setting is absorption spectroscopy in the ultraviolet region. For typical proteins composed of the standard amino acids, absorption at wavelengths near 280 nm is due to the three amino acid chromophores tryptophan, tyrosine, and phenylalanine in addition to a contribution from disulfide bonds. According to the Beer-Lambert law, absorbance is proportional to concentration and path length, with the proportionality constant being the extinction coefficient. Typically the extinction coefficient of proteins is experimentally determined by measuring a solution absorbance then experimentally determining the concentration, a measurement with some inherent variability depending on the method used. In this study, extinction coefficients were calculated based on the measured absorbance of model compounds of the four amino acid chromophores. These calculated values for an unfolded protein were then compared with an experimental concentration determination based on enzymatic digestion of proteins. The experimentally determined extinction coefficient for the native proteins was consistently found to be 1.05 times the calculated value for the unfolded proteins for a wide range of proteins with good accuracy and precision under well-controlled experimental conditions. The value of 1.05 times the calculated value was termed the predicted extinction coefficient. Statistical analysis shows that the differences between predicted and experimentally determined coefficients are scattered randomly, indicating no systematic bias between the values among the proteins measured. The predicted extinction coefficient was found to be accurate and not subject to the inherent variability of experimental methods. We propose the use of a

Method for estimating capacity and predicting remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Tamirisa, Prabhakar; Gorka, Tom

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We develop an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction. • A state projection scheme is derived for capacity estimation. • The Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used for the RUL prediction. • Results with 10 years’ continuous cycling data verify the effectiveness of the method. - Abstract: Reliability of lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries used in implantable medical devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, physicians, and patients. To ensure Li-ion batteries in these devices operate reliably, it is important to be able to assess the capacity of Li-ion battery and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) throughout the whole life-time. This paper presents an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction of Li-ion battery used in implantable medical devices. A state projection scheme from the author’s previous study is used for the capacity estimation. Then, based on the capacity estimates, the Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used to project the capacity fade to the end-of-service (EOS) value (or the failure limit) for the RUL prediction. Results of 10 years’ continuous cycling test on Li-ion prismatic cells in the lab suggest that the proposed method achieves good accuracy in the capacity estimation and captures the uncertainty in the RUL prediction. Post-explant weekly cycling data obtained from field cells with 4–7 implant years further verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in the capacity estimation

Different protein-protein interface patterns predicted by different machine learning methods.

Science.gov (United States)