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Sample records for predicting nevirapine-associated rash

  1. Toxicogenomics of nevirapine-associated cutaneous and hepatic adverse events among populations of African, Asian, and European descent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yuan, Jing; Guo, Sheng; Hall, David; Cammett, Anna M.; Jayadev, Supriya; Distel, Manuel; Storfer, Stephen; Huang, Zimei; Mootsikapun, Piroon; Ruxrungtham, Kiat; Podzamczer, Daniel; Haas, David W.; Benetucci, Jorge; Ortega, Gerardo; Cahn, Pedro; Cesar, Carina; Cassetti, Isabel; Bissio, Emiliano; Lupo, Sergio; Chuah, John; Workman, Cassy; Rees, Vanessa; Cooper, David A.; Hickey, Rebecca; Anderson, Jonathan; Moore, Richard; Hoy, Jennifer; Downs, Cath; Finlayson, Robert; Bodsworth, Neil; Eu, Beng; Lau, Helen; Montaner, Julio; Harris, Marianne; Walmsley, Sharon; d'Aquila, Adrianna; Conway, Brian; Tossonian, Harout; Morlat, Philippe; Louis, Isabelle; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Ajana, Faiza; Bollens, Diane; Girard, Pierre-Marie; May, Thierry; Pialoux, Gilles; Slama, Laurence; Lyavanc, Thomas; Piketty, Christophe; Reiss, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Nevirapine is widely prescribed for HIV-1 infection. We characterized relationships between nevirapine-associated cutaneous and hepatic adverse events and genetic variants among HIV-infected adults. We retrospectively identified cases and controls. Cases experienced symptomatic nevirapine-associated

  2. Predictive Value of Early Skin Rash in Cetuximab-Based Therapy of Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubovszky, Gábor; Budai, Barna; Ganofszky, Erna; Horváth, Zsolt; Juhos, Éva; Madaras, Balázs; Nagy, Tünde; Szabó, Eszter; Pintér, Tamás; Tóth, Erika; Nagy, Péter; Láng, István; Hitre, Erika

    2018-04-01

    Randomized trials in advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) did not show benefit of cetuximab addition over chemotherapy. This is probably due to the lack of predictive biomarkers. The aim of this study was to explore possible predictive factors. Between 2009 and 2014, 57 patients were treated in 3-week cycles with cetuximab (250 mg/m 2 /week, loading dose: 400 mg/m 2 ), gemcitabine (1000 mg/m 2 on day 1 and 8), and capecitabine (1300 mg/m 2 /day on days 1-14). The objective response rate (ORR), progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) and the adverse events (AEs) were evaluated. An exploratory analysis was performed to find possible predictive factors on clinicopathological characteristics, routine laboratory parameters and early AEs, which occurred within 2 months from the beginning of treatment. The ORR was 21%. The median PFS and OS were 34 (95% CI: 24-40) and 54 (43-67) weeks, respectively. The most frequent AEs were skin toxicities. In univariate analysis performance status, previous stent implantation, thrombocyte count at the start of therapy, early neutropenia and skin rash statistically significantly influenced the ORR, PFS and/or OS. In multivariate Cox regression analysis only normal thrombocyte count at treatment start and early acneiform rash were independent markers of longer survival. In patients showing early skin rash compared to the others the median PFS was 39 vs. 13 weeks and the median OS was 67 vs. 26 weeks, respectively. It is suggested that early skin rash can be used as a biomarker to select patients who would benefit from the treatment with cetuximab plus chemotherapy.

  3. Diaper Rash

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... if it’s wet. Babies often urinate right after falling asleep.) You can apply diaper rash ointment or ... him/her from getting diaper rash? Should I leave my baby’s diaper off while he/she is ...

  4. Fever and rash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlossberg, D

    1996-03-01

    The combination of fever and rash comprises an extensive differential diagnosis. Many of the causes of this presentation are life-threatening. In this article, rashes are categorized as petechial, maculopapular, vesicular, erythematous, and urticarial. Each type of rash is then divided into infectious etiologies, both treatable and nontreatable, and noninfectious etiologies. It is usually possible to arrive at a workable differential diagnosis when clinical, historical, and epidemiologic factors are considered.

  5. Poison Ivy Rash

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poison ivy rash Overview Poison ivy rash is caused by an allergic reaction to an oily resin called urushiol (u-ROO-she-ol). This oil is in the leaves, stems and roots of poison ivy, poison oak and poison sumac. Wash your ...

  6. Fever with Rashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soman, Letha

    2018-07-01

    Fever with rashes is one of the commonest clinical problems a general practitioner or pediatrician has to face in day-to-day clinical practice. It can be a mild viral illness or a life-threatening illness like meningococcemia or Dengue hemorrhagic fever or it can be one with a lifelong consequence like Kawasaki disease. It is very important to arrive at a clinical diagnosis as early as possible with the minimum investigational facilities. The common causes associated with fever and rashes are infections, viral followed by other infections. There can be so many non-infectious causes also for fever and rashes like auto immune diseases, drug allergies etc. The type of rashes, their appearance in relation to the fever and pattern of spread to different parts of body and the disappearance, all will help in making a diagnosis. Often the diagnosis is clinical. In certain situations laboratory work up becomes essential.

  7. Rashes: The Itchy Truth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... while it's healing. Allergic contact dermatitis is a rash caused by contact with an allergen (say: AL-ur-jun). An ... when you'll be going outside. For allergic dermatitis or irritant contact dermatitis, try to avoid that substance. If you ...

  8. What is that rash?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speirs, Lynne; McVea, Steven; Little, Rebecca; Bourke, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    A healthy 15-month-old girl presented to the emergency department with a 24-hour history of fever and rash. The initial blanching rash developed into non-blanching areas with associated leg swelling. She had received no recent medications, had no known drug allergies and no unwell contacts.On examination, she was feverish at 38.6°C, capillary refill time was <2 s with warm peripheries, heart rate 169 bpm and blood pressure 94/59 mm Hg. A palpable purpuric rash was evident on all four limbs and face (figure 1) although the trunk was spared. Her legs were tense and oedematous to the knee.edpract;103/1/25/EDPRACT2016311782F1F1EDPRACT2016311782F1Figure 1Rash at presentation.Initial investigations: Haemoglobin level: 131 g/L, white cell count: 16.6×10 9 /L, neutrophils: 11.1×10 9 /L and platelets: 407×10 9 /LCoagulation screen: normalC reactive protein level: 20 mg/LLactate level: 1.7 mmol/LIntravenous ceftriaxone was commenced following blood culture and meningococcal PCR. The following day, while remaining systemically well, she developed a vesicular rash on her trunk and back (figure 2).edpract;103/1/25/EDPRACT2016311782F2F2EDPRACT2016311782F2Figure 2Vesicular rash. What is the diagnosis? Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP)Meningococcal septicaemiaAcute haemorrhagic oedema of infancy (AHOI)Vasculitic urticariaGianotti-Crosti syndromeWhat further investigation is required? Check viral serology including Epstein-Barr virus and hepatitis B virusComplement levels and autoimmune screenSkin biopsyLumbar puncture and audiologyNo further investigationHow should this child be managed? Complete 7 days of ceftriaxone treatmentOral aciclovirOral steroidsRegular follow-up with urinalysis and blood pressure monitoringStop antibiotics if cultures were negative at 48 hours and discharge Answers are on page ▪▪. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  9. A Rejang River rash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Li Lim

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A 30-year-old Iban woman presented to a rural primary healthcare clinic located along the Batang Rejang in Sarawak. She had a 2-day history of rash, which started over her trunk and later spread to her face and limbs. What started out as individual erythematous maculopapular spots later coalesced to form larger raised blotches. The rash was extremely pruritic and affected her sleep, and hence her visit. The rash was preceded by high grade, persistent fever that was temporarily relieved by paracetamol. She also complained of malaise, arthralgia and myalgia. Her appetite had been poor since the onset of the fever. She lived in a long house at the edge of the jungle. Although she did not have a history of going into the jungle to forage, she went regularly to the river to wash clothes. Clinically, she appeared lethargic and had bilateral conjunctival injection. Her left anterior cervical lymph nodes were palpable. There were erythematous macules measuring 5 to 15 mm distributed over her whole body but predominantly over the chest and abdominal region (Figure 1. An unusual skin lesion was discovered at the right hypochondriac region. This lesion resembled a cigarette burn with a necrotic centre (Figure 2. There was no evidence of hepato-splenomegaly. Examination of the other systems was unremarkable. On further questioning, the patient admitted being bitten by a ‘kutu babi’ or mite 3 days before the onset of her fever.

  10. Rash Decisions: An Approach to Dangerous Rashes Based on Morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santistevan, Jamie; Long, Brit; Koyfman, Alex

    2017-04-01

    Rash is a common complaint in the emergency department. Many causes of rash are benign; however, some patients may have a life-threatening diagnosis. This review will present an algorithmic approach to rashes, focusing on life-threatening causes of rash in each category. Rash is common, with a wide range of etiologies. The differential is broad, consisting of many conditions that are self-resolving. However, several conditions associated with rash are life threatening. Several keys can be utilized to rapidly diagnose and manage these deadly rashes. Thorough history and physical examination, followed by consideration of red flags, are essential. This review focuses on four broad categories based on visual and tactile characteristic patterns of rashes: petechial/purpuric, erythematous, maculopapular, and vesiculobullous. Rashes in each morphologic group will be further categorized based on clinical features such as the presence or absence of fever and distribution of skin lesions. Rashes can be divided into petechial/purpuric, erythematous, maculopapular, and vesiculobullous. After this differentiation, the presence of fever and systemic signs of illness should be assessed. Through the breakdown of rashes into these classes, emergency providers can ensure deadly conditions are considered. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  11. Poison ivy - oak - sumac rash

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000027.htm Poison ivy - oak - sumac rash To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Poison ivy, oak, and sumac are plants that commonly ...

  12. Rash caused by Oryctes nasicornis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veraldi, Stefano; Fanoni, Daniele; Nazzaro, Gianluca

    2016-02-01

    We report a case of rash caused by crushing of a male of Oryctes nasicornis (Linnaeus 1758) (Coleoptera, "http:// it. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ Scarabaeidae" \\o "Scarabaeidae" Scarabaeidae), popularly known as "European rhinoceros beetle", on the skin of an Italian tourist who developed the reaction during a trip to Turkey. The rash appeared one hour after the crushing of the insect on the skin. The patient was observed one day later, when she returned to Italy. To our knowledge, no similar cases have been reported in the literature. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Ron Rash: One Foot in Eden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerre, Thomas Ærvold

    2010-01-01

    An analysis of Ron Rash's novel One Foot in Eden, focusing on his attachment to place and his depiction of the internal conflicts between farmers and townspeople in a small Appalachian community. Rash depicts the contemporary Southerner’s struggle to maintain his or her roots in a time of rapid...

  14. Southern Tick-Associated Rash Illness (STARI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... described in humans following bites of the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum . The rash may be accompanied ... of Vector-Borne Diseases (DVBD) Email Recommend Tweet YouTube Instagram Listen Watch RSS ABOUT About CDC Jobs ...

  15. Evaluating the febrile patient with a rash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinnon, H D; Howard, T

    2000-08-15

    The differential diagnosis for febrile patients with a rash is extensive. Diseases that present with fever and rash are usually classified according to the morphology of the primary lesion. Rashes can be categorized as maculopapular (centrally and peripherally distributed), petechial, diffusely erythematous with desquamation, vesiculobullous-pustular and nodular. Potential causes include viruses, bacteria, spirochetes, rickettsiae, medications and rheumatologic diseases. A thorough history and a careful physical examination are essential to making a correct diagnosis. Although laboratory studies can be useful in confirming the diagnosis, test results often are not available immediately. Because the severity of these illnesses can vary from minor (roseola) to life-threatening (meningococcemia), the family physician must make prompt management decisions regarding empiric therapy. Hospitalization, isolation and antimicrobial therapy often must be considered when a patient presents with fever and a rash.

  16. Skin rash during treatment with generic itraconazole.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vuono, Antonio; Palleria, Caterina; Scicchitano, Francesca; Squillace, Aida; De Sarro, Giovambattista; Gallelli, Luca

    2014-04-01

    Generic drugs have the same active substance, the same pharmaceutical form, the same therapeutic indications and a similar bioequivalence with the reference medicinal product (branded). Although a similar efficacy is postulated, some cases of clinical inefficacy during treatment with generic formulations have been reported. In this case, we describe a woman with onychomycosis that developed a skin rash during treatment with a generic formulation of itraconazole. Drug administration and its re-challenge confirmed the association between itraconazole and skin rash. Both Naranjo probability scale and World Health Organization causality assessment scale documented a probable association between generic-itraconazole and skin rash. The switch from generic formulation to brand one induced an improvement of symptoms. Since we are unable to evaluate the role of each excipient in the development of skin rash, we cannot rule out their involvement. However, more data are necessary to better define the similarities or differences between branded and generic formulations.

  17. Oxcarbazepine Induced Maculopapular Rash - A Case Report

    OpenAIRE

    Biswas, Arunava; Mitra, Ritabrata; Sen, Sukanta; Pal, Agnik; Tripathi, Santanu Kumar

    2015-01-01

    Unlike carbamazepine, newer anti epileptic drug like oxcarbazepine, reports fewer side effects. In this report we describe a case of oxcarbazepine induced maculopapular rash probably happened because of a drug interaction with isoniazid, and a brief review of the existing literature is presented herewith. A 40-year-old male patient received oxcarbazepine 300mg twice daily along with other anti-tubercular drugs including isoniazid (300mg) once daily since two days. Extensive cutaneous rash wit...

  18. Red, Itchy Rash? Get the Skinny on Dermatitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Subscribe April 2012 Print this issue Red, Itchy Rash? Get the Skinny on Dermatitis En español Send us your comments You’ve probably had a rash at some point or another, whether from poison ...

  19. Oxcarbazepine induced maculopapular rash - a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Arunava; Mitra, Ritabrata; Sen, Sukanta; Pal, Agnik; Tripathi, Santanu Kumar

    2015-01-01

    Unlike carbamazepine, newer anti epileptic drug like oxcarbazepine, reports fewer side effects. In this report we describe a case of oxcarbazepine induced maculopapular rash probably happened because of a drug interaction with isoniazid, and a brief review of the existing literature is presented herewith. A 40-year-old male patient received oxcarbazepine 300mg twice daily along with other anti-tubercular drugs including isoniazid (300mg) once daily since two days. Extensive cutaneous rash with intense itching developed which subsided on discontinuation of oxcarbazepine. This case highlights the fact that there is a potential possibility of drug-drug interaction between oxcarbazepine and isoniazid and concomitant use of these two drugs should better be avoided during clinical practice.

  20. Skin rash during treatment with generic itraconazole

    OpenAIRE

    De Vuono, Antonio; Palleria, Caterina; Scicchitano, Francesca; Squillace, Aida; De Sarro, Giovambattista; Gallelli, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Generic drugs have the same active substance, the same pharmaceutical form, the same therapeutic indications and a similar bioequivalence with the reference medicinal product (branded). Although a similar efficacy is postulated, some cases of clinical inefficacy during treatment with generic formulations have been reported. In this case, we describe a woman with onychomycosis that developed a skin rash during treatment with a generic formulation of itraconazole. Drug administration and its re...

  1. Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) deficiency presenting as a rash.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Crushell, Ellen

    2012-09-01

    We report on the case of a 2-year-old girl recently diagnosed with Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) deficiency who originally presented in the neonatal period with a distinctive rash. At 11 weeks of age she developed seizures, she had acquired microcephaly and developmental delay. The rash deteriorated dramatically following commencement of phenobarbitone; both rash and seizures abated following empiric introduction of pyridoxine and folinic acid as treatment of possible vitamin responsive seizures. We postulate that phenobarbitone in combination with MTHFR deficiency may have caused her rash to deteriorate and subsequent folinic acid was helpful in treating the rash and preventing further acute neurological decline as commonly associated with this condition.

  2. RASH D - A mercury programme for neutron shielding calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bendall, D.E.

    1962-08-01

    An improved version of an earlier neutron shielding programme (RASH B) is described. The new programme is also written in Mercury Autocode and solves a set of multigroup diffusion equations in one dimension. It differs from RASH B in that distributed source terms may be introduced into all the groups if required. Some other improvements are also included. (author)

  3. Not all that rashes is measles:

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibrahim, S. A.; Mustafa, O. A.

    1998-01-01

    Measles is a major cause of infant mortality in third world countries, leading to approximately one million deaths each year. The WHO aims to globally eradicate measles virus at the beginning of the next century, which will need a major effort in particular in countries like Sudan. To achieve goal epidemiological studies I am needed to estimate the magnitude of the problem for which accurate diagnostic test are needed. We therefore conducted a study in El hag Yousif area (population 500 000) in Khartoum North where measles is prevalent despite vaccination effort by EPI. We studied the accuracy of the WHO criteria for clinical diagnosis in comparison with laboratory diagnosis during a one-year period. A total of 145 under five suspected measles cases were identified by active, case finding and examined. 111 cases fully complied with the WHO criteria for diagnosis of clinical measles. Out of 103 clinical measles cases, tested using prototype rapid measles test IgM Elisa and Pcr, 77(75%) were measles positive. A battery of virus test was run on 21 sera out of the 26(25%) measles negatives: Herpes virus-6, Epstein-Bar and Dengue viruses were detected in five, one and one case, respectively. It was concluded that one out of every four cases diagnosed by the clinical as measles rash is probably caused by other viruses. (Author)

  4. Erlotinib-induced rash spares previously irradiated skin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lips, Irene M.; Vonk, Ernest J.A.; Koster, Mariska E.Y.; Houwing, Ronald H.

    2011-01-01

    Erlotinib is an epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor prescribed to patients with locally advanced or metastasized non-small cell lung carcinoma after failure of at least one earlier chemotherapy treatment. Approximately 75% of the patients treated with erlotinib develop acneiform skin rashes. A patient treated with erlotinib 3 months after finishing concomitant treatment with chemotherapy and radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer is presented. Unexpectedly, the part of the skin that had been included in his previously radiotherapy field was completely spared from the erlotinib-induced acneiform skin rash. The exact mechanism of erlotinib-induced rash sparing in previously irradiated skin is unclear. The underlying mechanism of this phenomenon needs to be explored further, because the number of patients being treated with a combination of both therapeutic modalities is increasing. The therapeutic effect of erlotinib in the area of the previously irradiated lesion should be assessed. (orig.)

  5. A non-travel related rash in a traveler

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith A. Sacco

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A 45-year-old man was admitted for investigation of a symmetric lower limb rash associated with recurrent fever for two weeks following a hiking trip in Italy and Greece. He was treated for sepsis secondary to lower limb cellulitis with no clinical improvement and subsequently diagnosed with Streptococcus gallolyticus endocarditis mediating an infectious vasculitis.

  6. An unusual case of sepsis and petechial rash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Christina

    2017-05-01

    This article describes a man who presented to the ED in acute distress with signs and symptoms of sepsis, pneumonia, and a new petechial rash on his chest. He was eventually diagnosed with Rocky Mountain spotted fever. Aggressive treatment of sepsis and timely administration of empiric antibiotics were lifesaving in this situation.

  7. Validity of genito-urinary discharges, genital ulcers and genital rashes as indicators of seroincident HSV-2 infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eziyi Iche Kalu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the validity of vaginal discharges, urethral discharges, genital rashes, and painful genital ulcers as indicators of early detection of incident herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2 infection among pregnant women in Benin metropolis. Methods: Participants were antenatal clinic attendees of University of Benin Teaching Hospital and Central Hospital, Benin. Baseline sociodemographic, obstetric and HSV-2 serological data were collected. The HSV-2-seronegative returned for a repeat HSV-2 antibody assay before delivery date. Data on incidence of genital rashes, abnormal vaginal discharges, painful genital ulcers and urethral discharges were collected. Results: The sensitivities of abnormal vaginal discharges, genital rashes, urethral discharges and painful genital ulcers were 82.3%, 70.6%, 41.2% and 28.6% respectively; while their positive-predictive values were 53.8%, 60.0%, 58.3% and 66.7% respective. All the symptoms had >95% specificities and 95% negative-predictive values for seroincident HSV-2 infection. Conclusions: Abnormal vaginal discharge, genital rashes, urethral discharges and genital ulcers are valid indicators of seroincident HSV-2 infection and could be useful in formulation of screening tools in resource-limited settings.

  8. Shampoo-clay heals diaper rash faster than calendula officinalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adib-Hajbaghery, Mohsen; Mahmoudi, Mansoreh; Mashaiekhi, Mahdi

    2014-06-01

    Diaper rash is one of the most common skin disorders of infancy and childhood. Some studies have shown that Shampoo-clay was effective to treat chronic dermatitis. Then, it is supposed that it may be effective in diaper rash; however, no published studies were found in this regard. This study aimed to compare the effects of Shampoo-clay (S.C) and Calendula officinalis (C.O) to improve infantile diaper rash. A randomized, double blind, parallel controlled, non-inferiority trial was conducted on 60 outpatient infants referred to health care centers or pediatric clinics in Khomein city and diagnosed with diaper rash. Patients were randomly assigned into two treatment groups including S.C group (n = 30) and C.O group (n = 30) by using one to one allocation ratio. The rate of complete recovery in three days was the primary outcome. Data was collected using a checklist and analyzed using t-test, Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests and risk ratio. Totally, 93.3% of lesions in the S.C group healed in the first 6 hours, while this rate was 40% in C.O group (P < 0.001). The healing ratio for improvement in the first 6 hours was 7 times more in the S.C group. In addition, 90% of infants in the SC group and 36.7% in the C.O group were improved completely in the first 3 days (P < 0.001). S.C was effective to heal diaper rash, and also had faster effects compared to C.O.

  9. Rat-bite fever presenting with rash and septic arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanechorn Na Ayuthaya, Rajyani; Niumpradit, Nucha

    2005-11-01

    Rat-bite fever is an uncommon disease known for its endemicity to occur worldwide. Although most patients tend to develop mild symptoms with improvement from conventional antibiotics, it can progress with severe complications with a mortality rate as high as 13% without proper treatment. The authors report a complicated case of rat bite-fever involving a 61-year old woman who presented with fever petechial rash, and septic arthritis following a rat bite. Initially, multiple antibiotics were administered but were not effective. As a consequence, invasive procedures such as arthrotomy and joint debridement were done and prolonged antibiotic was administered until clinical resolution. Since many cases do not have a history of rat bite and may present with fever, rashes, and arthritis it is essential to distinguish it from other diseases. Here, the authors will provide details on the etiology, clinical manifestations, diagnosis, and management to aid prompt detection and treatment of the disease.

  10. Antibiotic-Induced Rash in Patients With Infectious Mononucleosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Dennis F; Ramos, Carroll L

    2017-02-01

    To provide an extensive review of case reports, epidemiological data, and the underlying mechanism of antibiotic-induced skin rash in patients with concurrent infectious mononucleosis (IM). A MEDLINE literature search inclusive of the dates 1946 to June 2016 was performed using the search terms anti-bacterial agents and infectious mononucleosis. EMBASE (1980 to June 2016) was searched using the terms mononucleosis and antibiotic agent and drug eruption. References of all relevant articles were reviewed for additional citations and information. We selected English-language, primary literature, review articles, and mechanistic articles that addressed antibiotic-induced skin rash in patients with concurrent IM. We assessed all case reports available for causality utilizing a modified Naranjo nomogram specifically designed for this subject. We assembled the available epidemiological data into tables to identify trends in incidence rates over the years. We identified 17 case reports of antibiotic-associated rash in patients with IM. The median Naranjo score was 6 (range = 1 to 8). The top 3 reported drugs were ampicillin, azithromycin, and amoxicillin. Incidence of this adverse effect was higher in the 1960s (55.6%, 45%, and 33%) than in 2013 (33% and 15%). The mechanism most commonly proposed is a transient virus-mediated immune alteration that sets the stage for loss of antigenic tolerance and the development of a reversible, delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction to the antibiotic. A reassessment of the long-held belief of the high incidence (80%-100%) of antibiotic-induced skin rash in patients with IM seems prudent. Additional studies will be necessary to clarify this issue.

  11. Nappy (diaper) rash: what else besides irritant contact dermatitis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Vânia Oliveira; Robl, Renata; Uber, Marjorie; Abagge, Kerstin Taniguchi; Marinoni, Leide Parolin; Presa, Juliana Gomes Loyola

    2015-08-01

    Nappy (diaper) rash is a common cutaneous disorder of infancy, and diverse dermatoses may affect this region. To perform a differential diagnosis can be challenging. We present four cases to emphasise the importance of clinical diagnosis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. Hydroxyzine induced pancytopenia and petechial rashes: a rare complication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihsan Ates

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Hydroxyzine is used as an additional treatment both in symptomatic treatment of anxiety and stress caused by psychoneurosis and in organic diseases which anxiety appeared. It is used to treat pruritis caused by histamine and such allergic cases like chronic urticaria because of antihistaminic effect, atopic and contact dermatitis. In this case report, that widespread milimetric petechial rashes in all body and deep pancytopnia development is seen in a patient using hydroxyzine tablet because of pruritis at joints is disscussed. [J Contemp Med 2016; 6(3.000: 234-234

  13. Recognising haemorrhagic rash in children with fever: a survey of parents' knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aurel, M; Dubos, F; Motte, B; Pruvost, I; Leclerc, F; Martinot, A

    2011-07-01

    Early recognition and treatment of meningococcal disease improves its outcome. Haemorrhagic rash is one of the most specific signs that parents can learn to recognise. To determine the percentage of parents able to recognise a haemorrhagic rash and perform the tumbler test. 123 parents of children consulting for mild injuries were interviewed about the significance and recognition of haemorrhagic rash in febrile children. Although 88% of parents undressed their children when they were febrile, it was never to look specifically for a skin rash. Only 7% (95% CI 3% to 12%) were able to recognise a petechial rash and knew the tumbler test. Information campaigns about the significance of haemorrhagic rash and about the tumbler test are needed.

  14. Mononucleosis-like drug rash: An interesting case presentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reshma T Vishnani

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Dapsone hypersensitivity syndrome (DHS is a rare adverse effect of the commonly prescribed drug dapsone. We present a case of a 35-year-old male who was referred to us from the gastroenterologist with complaints of rash, nausea, vomiting, and jaundice since 2 days with a provisional differential diagnosis of infectious mononucleosis or viral exanthema. On enquiry patient gave history of taking dapsone a week prior for refractory urticaria. After thorough investigations we diagnosed him with DHS. This syndrome occurs in a relatively small proportion of patients, but it is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. The reason for presenting this case is to remind physicians of the unpredictability and potential severity of this reaction which makes it a major concern in clinical practice.

  15. Seizure freedom after lamotrigine rash: a peculiar phenomenon in epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakisaka, Yosuke; Jin, Kazutaka; Kato, Kazuhiro; Iwasaki, Masaki; Nakasato, Nobukazu

    2014-01-01

    A 57-year-old right-handed woman with a history of left frontal lobe stroke had experienced episodes of language-expression difficulty followed by paraphasia lasting for approximately 30 seconds two years earlier. She was diagnosed with left frontal lobe epilepsy, and a lamotrigine regimen was initiated. This treatment had to be stopped five weeks after initiation because she developed a rash, and her drug lymphocyte stimulation test result was positive. Interestingly, she has since remained seizure free without requiring any antiepileptic medications. This adult case with a peculiar clinical course provides support for the hypothesis of immunomodulation process involvement in epilepsy, a phenomenon that was previously mainly seen in pediatric patients.

  16. Incidence of rash after amoxicillin treatment in children with infectious mononucleosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chovel-Sella, Aluma; Ben Tov, Amir; Lahav, Einat; Mor, Orna; Rudich, Hagit; Paret, Gideon; Reif, Shimon

    2013-05-01

    "Ampicillin rash," a phenomenon unique to patients with Epstein-Barr virus acute infectious mononucleosis (AIM) treated with ampicillin, was first reported in the 1960s. The incidence was estimated as being between 80% and 100%, and the figures have not been reviewed since those first accounts. We sought to establish the current incidence of rash associated with antibiotic treatment among children with AIM. A retrospective study of all hospitalized children diagnosed as having AIM based upon positive Epstein-Barr virus serology in 2 pediatric tertiary medical centers in Israel. Of the 238 children who met the study entry criteria during the study period, 173 were treated with antibiotics. Fifty-seven (32.9%) of the subjects treated with antibiotics had a rash during their illness compared with 15 (23.1%) in untreated patients (P = .156; not significant). Amoxicillin was associated with the highest incidence of antibiotic-induced rash occurrence (29.5%, 95% confidence interval: 18.52-42.57), but significantly lower than the 90% rate reported for ampicillin in past studies. Age, gender, ethnicity, and atopic or allergic history were not associated with the development of rash after antibiotic exposure. Among the laboratory data, only increased white blood cell counts were more prevalent among subjects who did not develop an antibiotic-induced rash. The incidence of rash in pediatric patients with AIM after treatment with the current oral aminopenicillin (amoxicillin) is much lower than originally reported.

  17. Drug Rash with Eosinophilia and Systemic Symptoms: Two Emergency Department Cases

    OpenAIRE

    Tsyrulnik, Alina; Landman, Adam B.

    2011-01-01

    Drug rash with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) is a rare, severe adverse drug event that appears with a generalized rash, fevers, and dysfunction of 1 or more organ systems. We describe 2 patients (1 adult and 1 pediatric) seen in the emergency department with DRESS, and review the clinical presentations, potential complications, and management of DRESS. Although rare, it can be associated with significant morbidity, including liver failure and death, and should be considered in th...

  18. Generalized petechial rashes in children during a parvovirus B19 outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonson, M Bruce; Riedesel, Erica L; Williams, Gary P; Demuri, Gregory P

    2010-04-01

    Human parvovirus B19 infection is associated not only with erythema infectiosum (fifth disease) but also, rarely, with purpuric or petechial rashes. Most reports of these atypical rashes describe sporadic cases with skin lesions that have distinctively focal distributions. During a community outbreak of fifth disease, we investigated a cluster of illnesses in children with generalized petechial rashes to determine whether parvovirus was the causative agent and, if so, to describe more fully the clinical spectrum of petechial rashes that are associated with this virus. Systematic evaluation was conducted by general pediatricians of children with petechial rashes for evidence of acute parvovirus infection. During the outbreak, acute parvovirus infection was confirmed in 13 (76%) of 17 children who were evaluated for petechial rash. Confirmed case patients typically had mild constitutional symptoms, and most (11 [85%] of 13) had fever. Petechiae were typically dense and widely distributed; sometimes accentuated in the distal extremities, axillae, or groin; and usually absent from the head/neck. Most case patients had leukopenia, and several had thrombocytopenia. Parvovirus immunoglobulin M was detected in 8 (73%) of 11 acute-phase serum specimens, and immunoglobulin G was detectable only in convalescent specimens. Parvovirus DNA was detected in all 7 tested serum specimens, including 2 acute-phase specimens that were immunoglobulin M-negative. All case patients had brief, uncomplicated illnesses, but 6 were briefly hospitalized and 1 underwent a bone marrow examination. Two case patients developed erythema infectiosum during convalescence. During an outbreak of fifth disease, parvovirus proved to be a common cause of petechial rash in children, and this rash was typically more generalized than described in case reports. Associated clinical features, hematologic abnormalities, and serologic test results are consistent with a viremia-associated illness that is distinct

  19. Risk of nevirapine-associated Stevens-Johnson syndrome among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) is an acute life-threatening condition often elicited by drugs. The government's indecisiveness in deciding to stop the use of nevirapine (NVP) in HIV-infected pregnant women owing to the increase of SJS among this population group in South Africa prompted this investigation ...

  20. Incidence of nevirapine-associated hepatitis in an antenatal clinic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-01-22

    Jan 22, 2008 ... together with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, either efavirenz or nevirapine.1 As efavirenz is thought to be a teratogen and is classified as a Food and Drug Administration. (FDA) category D drug, nevirapine is the preferred agent for use in pregnant women, for women planning a pregnancy ...

  1. Incidence of nevirapine-associated hepatitis in an antenatal clinic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    based highly active antiretroviral therapy at a dedicated antenatal antiretroviral clinic between July 2004 and December 2006. Results. Three hundred and ninety women were included in the analysis. Median age was 29 (interquartile range (IQR)

  2. Lamotrigine rechallenge after a skin rash. A combined study of open cases and a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrani Azcurra, Daniel J L

    2013-01-01

    To determine the safety of lamotrigine rechallenge after a first episode of skin rash in bipolar patients. An open cases prospective study was conducted with patients who, developed a skin rash when first treated with lamotrigine, were refractory to other treatments, and were offered lamotrigine rechallenge using a different dose titration. Additionally a review was performed on previous skin rash management strategies and lamotrigine rechallenge reports. Every 3 out of 10 lamotrigine rechallenge patients required drug interruption due to persistent rash. One of them was potentially serious and resolved by stopping the lamotrigine. The review of available literature identified several lamotrigine rechallenge studies with rates of positive results varying between 70% and 87% depending on the study. No patient developed Stevens-Johnson syndrome or toxic epidermal necrolysis after rechallenge. The rate of rash was higher when rechallenge began between 4 weeks from initial rash (19% vs. 7%, P=.001) and decreased when first rash showed no potentially serious signs (0% vs.19%, P=.01). Rechallenge is a viable option after a benign lamotrigine-induced rash, and can even be rechallenged after rash with greater precautions when there exists one or two potentially serious signs. In cases of more serious rash there are no reliable data available on rechallenge safety and it may pose a significant risk. In those cases rechallenge should better be avoided between 4 weeks from first rash. Copyright © 2011 SEP y SEPB. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  3. Skin rash in patients treated with neoadjuvant erlotinib (Tarceva in resectable non-small cell lung cancer: Predictor for tumor response and survival?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Gool MH

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Skin rash during treatment with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI has been reported to be predictive for response and survival in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate whether skin rash during treatment (as a biomarker in a preoperative setting was related to response and survival. Methods: This study was designed as an open-label phase II trial (also known as M06NEL. Patients received preoperative erlotinib (Tarceva 150 mg once daily for 3 weeks. Skin toxicity during treatment was analysed in relation to metabolic and histopathological response, overall survival (OS and progression-free survival (PFS. Results: In total 59 patients (25 male, 34 female were eligible for analysis. In 39 patients (66% skin toxicity occurred. According to National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria (NCICTC, Grade 1 toxicity was seen in 15 patients (25%, Grade 2 in 19 patients (32% and Grade 3 in five patients (8%. None of the patients showed skin toxicity Grade 4 and 5. The median follow up was 74 months. Thirty-six patients (61% were alive at time of analysis. Twenty-seven patients (46% showed disease progression during follow up. Hazard ratios (HR indicated lower risk of death (HR = 0.66, 95%CI: 0.29 - 1.50 and progression (HR = 0.64, 0.30 - 1.36, although in this small group results were not significant. Skin rash did not adequately predict response. Conclusions: In this neoadjuvant setting with limited treatment time in patients with early stage NSCLC, skin rash was not associated with response and survival and cannot be used as an early biomarker.

  4. Azithromycin-induced rash in a patient of infectious mononucleosis - a case report with review of literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Indranil; Mondal, Somnath; Sen, Sukanta; Tripathi, Santanu Kumar; Banerjee, Gautam

    2014-08-01

    Antibiotic induced skin rash in setting of infectious mononucleosis is often encountered in clinical practice. However, macrolides like azithromycin are considered relatively safe and till date only two cases of azithromycin induced rash in setting of infectious mononucleosis have been reported. The following report illustrates the case of a 23-year-old man suffering from infectious mononucleosis who exhibited a generalized cutaneous rash following treatment with azithromycin. Using the Naranjo ADR probability scale, this case of acute onset rash following azithromycin administration was found to be in 'probable' category. The mechanism of antibiotic-induced rash in patients suffering from infectious mononucleosis is incompletely understood. It has been suggested that the rash could result from virus mediated immunomodulation or due to altered drug metabolism. The report calls for cautious use of antibiotics in the setting of suspected viral infections like infectious mononucleosis as injudicious use might increase the risk of deleterious skin reactions and increase the cost of healthcare.

  5. Rash related to use of scented products. A questionnaire study in the Danish population. Is the problem increasing?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, J D; Andersen, T F; Thomsen, L K

    2000-01-01

    . Further, it was determined whether risk of self-reported 1st-time rash from scented products had increased during the past 15 years compared to the preceding period. The sample consisted of 1537 persons, 801 female and 736 male, above the age of 15 years. The participants were interviewed person......-to-person to obtain a general health profile, and in this connection, questions were asked concerning rash related to the use of scented products. 28.6% (440/1537) had on some occasion experienced rash from scented products, 10.6% had experienced rash within the year prior to interview. A multivariate analysis showed...... that women had a significantly increased risk of reporting rash from scented products compared to men (odds ratio: 1.56, pyears had a significantly increased risk of reporting rash from scented products compared to older age groups...

  6. MRI diagnosis of muscle denervation from herpes zoster with discordant distribution of the skin rash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Amit; Sundaram, Murali [Cleveland Clinic, Section of Musculoskeletal Radiology, Imaging Institute, Cleveland, OH (United States); Winalski, Carl S. [Cleveland Clinic, Section of Musculoskeletal Radiology, Imaging Institute, Cleveland, OH (United States); Cleveland Clinic, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Lerner Research Institute, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2014-10-15

    Herpes zoster is a common disorder characterized by a painful rash along a dermatome caused by reactivation of the varicella zoster virus (VZV). Muscle denervation injury from motor involvement is an uncommon phenomenon. Discordant distribution of the skin rash and motor nerve involvement, presenting as a skin rash in one body part and muscle weakness or pain from nerve involvement in another body part is an even more uncommonly reported finding. We present an unusual case of muscle denervation injury resulting from motor involvement of a peripheral nerve by VZV diagnosed by magnetic resonance imaging with cutaneous manifestations in a different dermatomal distribution. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no similar case reported in the English radiology literature. We suggest that whenever a radiologist notices MRI findings suggesting denervation injury and a cause not readily identified, VZV-related denervation injury should be included in the differential diagnosis, especially in an older immunocompromised patient. (orig.)

  7. Rash, disseminated intravascular coagulation and legionella: Episode 10 and a rewind into the past

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashanth M. Thalanayar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Legionella pneumophila is the most common cause of legionellosis and is one of the organisms causing atypical pneumonia. We report the presentation of disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC and skin rash in a single case of severe Legionella pneumonia. The unique clinical presentation of a diffuse rash diagnosed as purpura fulminans and the unpredictable variations encountered during the diagnostic work-up of the case make this write-up crucial. This article synthesizes all reported cases of L. pneumonia associated with cutaneous manifestations as well as cases presenting with DIC. Furthermore, this manuscript illustrates the correlation between cutaneous and coagulopathic manifestations, and morbidity and mortality from L. pneumonia.

  8. Mothers Knowledge and Home Management ofNappy Rash in Port ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    TNHJOURNALPH

    2006-10-10

    Oct 10, 2006 ... Mothers Knowledge and Home Management ofNappy Rash in Port Harcourt, Nigeria ... of nappy-wearing babies at any given time. It is not a disease but just an ..... soap/detergent, time saving, better containment of faecal ...

  9. The “Pearls” of Multidisciplinary Team: Conquering the Uncommon Rosette Rash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Verma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Linear IgA disease of childhood (LAD also known as chronic bullous disease of childhood is an autoimmune disease with IgA deposition at the basement membrane zone leading to a vesiculobullous rash. It has a clinical appearance which frequently is described as resembling “strings of pearls” or rosette-like. Diagnosis is usually clinical but sometimes biopsy is required. Dapsone is widely considered to be the first line therapy in the treatment of LAD. A 5-year-old girl presented with 4-day history of a widespread painful rash and pyrexia. The rash transformed into painful blisters. A recent contact with chickenpox was present. She remained apyrexial but hemodynamically stable and was treated as chickenpox patient with secondary infection. Due to persistent symptoms after repeated attendance she was reviewed by Dermatology team and diagnosed with linear IgA disease also known as chronic bullous disease of childhood. This was based on the presence of blistering rash with rosette appearance and string of pearl lesions. The clinical features of LAD can be difficult to distinguish from more common skin infections. Benefiting from the experience of other multidisciplinary teams can sometimes be a game changer and can lead to the correct diagnosis and treatment.

  10. The management of fever and petechiae: making sense of rash decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogan, P A; Raffles, A

    2000-12-01

    In a retrospective and prospective audit of 55 children presenting to the paediatric assessment unit of a district general hospital with fever and petechial rash, 9% had significant bacterial sepsis. The "ILL criteria" (irritability, lethargy, low capillary refill) for the management of children with fever and petechiae are proposed.

  11. Rash after measles vaccination: laboratory analysis of cases reported in São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliveira Maria I

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The clinical differential diagnosis of rash due to viral infections is often difficult, and misdiagnosis is not rare, especially after the introduction of measles and rubella vaccination. A study to determine the etiological diagnosis of exanthema was carried out in a group of children after measles vaccination. METHODS: Sera collected from children with rash who received measles vaccine were reported in 1999. They were analyzed for IgM antibodies against measles virus, rubella virus, human parvovirus B19 (HPV B19 using ELISA commercial techniques, and human herpes virus 6 (HHV 6 using immunofluorescence commercial technique. Viremia for each of those viruses was tested using a polimerase chain reaction (PCR. RESULTS: A total of 17 cases of children with exanthema after measles immunization were reported in 1999. The children, aged 9 to 12 months (median 10 months, had a blood sample taken for laboratory analysis. The time between vaccination and the first rash signs varied from 1 to 60 days. The serological results of those 17 children suspected of measles or rubella infection showed the following etiological diagnosis: 17.6% (3 in 17 HPV B19 infection; 76.5% (13 in 17 HHV 6 infection; 5.9% (1 in 17 rash due to measles vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: The study data indicate that infection due to HPV B19 or HHV 6 can be misdiagnosed as exanthema due to measles vaccination. Therefore, it is important to better characterize the etiology of rash in order to avoid attributing it incorrectly to measles vaccine.

  12. Rash after measles vaccination: laboratory analysis of cases reported in São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria I Oliveira

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The clinical differential diagnosis of rash due to viral infections is often difficult, and misdiagnosis is not rare, especially after the introduction of measles and rubella vaccination. A study to determine the etiological diagnosis of exanthema was carried out in a group of children after measles vaccination. METHODS: Sera collected from children with rash who received measles vaccine were reported in 1999. They were analyzed for IgM antibodies against measles virus, rubella virus, human parvovirus B19 (HPV B19 using ELISA commercial techniques, and human herpes virus 6 (HHV 6 using immunofluorescence commercial technique. Viremia for each of those viruses was tested using a polimerase chain reaction (PCR. RESULTS: A total of 17 cases of children with exanthema after measles immunization were reported in 1999. The children, aged 9 to 12 months (median 10 months, had a blood sample taken for laboratory analysis. The time between vaccination and the first rash signs varied from 1 to 60 days. The serological results of those 17 children suspected of measles or rubella infection showed the following etiological diagnosis: 17.6% (3 in 17 HPV B19 infection; 76.5% (13 in 17 HHV 6 infection; 5.9% (1 in 17 rash due to measles vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: The study data indicate that infection due to HPV B19 or HHV 6 can be misdiagnosed as exanthema due to measles vaccination. Therefore, it is important to better characterize the etiology of rash in order to avoid attributing it incorrectly to measles vaccine.

  13. Clinical significance of skin rash in dengue fever: A focus on discomfort, complications, and disease outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hsin-Wei; Tseng, Han-Chi; Lee, Chih-Hung; Chuang, Hung-Yi; Lin, Shang-Hung

    2016-07-01

    To assess whether the cutaneous features in patients with dengue fever are associated with abnormal blood biochemistry, complications, and poor disease outcome. Forty five patients with dengue fever were identified at a medical center in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, from September to November 2014. All cases were exclusively caused by type 1 dengue virus. Patients were classified into two groups, based on the presence or absence of skin rash, and their rash was subclassified into maculopapular, morbilliform, and petechial types. Clinical symptoms, laboratory data, disease outcome, and complications were compared between the two groups. Thirty two patients with dengue fever developed skin rash (SP group, n = 32) while the rest of 13 did not (SN group, n = 13). The patient numbers in the maculopapular, morbilliform, and petechial group were 4, 21, and 7, respectively. The SP group was younger (P = 0.001), experienced more pruritus (P = 0.008) and more swollen palms/soles (P = 0.015) than the SN group. However, the SN group had greater genital mucosa involvement (P = 0.008), higher platelet transfusion rate (P = 0.003), and lower hemoglobin and hematocrit levels (P = 0.030) than the SP group. Patients with morbilliform lesions had a higher incidence of palm/sole swelling, less genital mucosal involvement, and a lower platelet transfusion rate than did patients with maculopapular or petechial lesions. Cutaneous manifestations provide an important clue to dengue fever. In patients with dengue fever, those with skin rash tend to have itching and swelling of the palms/soles, however, those without skin rash tend to have more complications and poor disease outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Hainan Medical College. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Impact of KRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA mutations, PTEN, AREG, EREG expression and skin rash in ≥ 2 line cetuximab-based therapy of colorectal cancer patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zacharenia Saridaki

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the predictive significance of KRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA mutational status, AREG- EREG mRNA expression, PTEN protein expression and skin rash in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC patients treated with cetuximab containing salvage chemotherapy.Primary tumors from 112 mCRC patients were analyzed. The worst skin toxicity during treatment was recorded.KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA mutations were present in 37 (33%, 8 (7.2% and 11 (9.8% cases, respectively, PTEN was lost in 21 (19.8% cases, AREG and EREG were overexpressed in 48 (45% and 51 (49% cases. In the whole study population, time to tumor progression (TTP and overall survival (OS was significantly lower in patients with KRAS (p = 0.001 and p = 0.026, respectively or BRAF (p = 0.001 and p<0.0001, respectively mutant tumors, downregulation of AREG (p = 0.018 and p = 0.013, respectively or EREG (p = 0.002 and p = 0.004, respectively and grade 0-1 skin rash (p<0.0001 and p<0.0001, respectively. In KRAS wt patients TTP and OS was significantly lower in patients with BRAF (p = 0.0001 and p<0.0001, respectively mutant tumors, downregulation of AREG (p = 0.021 and p = 0.004, respectively or EREG (p = 0.0001 and p<0.0001, respectively and grade 0-1 skin rash (p<0.0001 and p<0.0001, respectively. TTP was significantly lower in patients with PIK3CA mutations (p = 0.01 or lost PTEN (p = 0.002. Multivariate analysis revealed KRAS (Hazard Ratio [HR] 4.3, p<0.0001, BRAF mutation (HR: 5.1, p<0.0001, EREG low expression (HR: 1.6, p = 0.021 and absence of severe/moderate skin rash (HR: 4.0, p<0.0001 as independent prognostic factors for decreased TTP. Similarly, KRAS (HR 2.9, p = 0.01, BRAF mutation (HR: 3.0, p = 0.001, EREG low expression (HR: 1.7, p = 0.021, absence of severe/moderate skin rash (HR: 3.7, p<0.0001 and the presence of undifferantited tumours (HR: 2.2, p = 0.001 were revealed as independent prognostic factors for decreased OS.These results underscore that KRAS-BRAF mutations and EREG

  15. Herpes Zoster Ophthalmicus Presenting as Acute Orbital Myositis Preceding a Skin Rash: A Case Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Ha Yeun; Cho, Seong Whi [Dept. of Radiology, Kangwon National University Hospital, Chuncheon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sung Hun [Dept. of Neurology, Kangwon National University Hospital, Chuncheon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-03-15

    Herpes zoster ophthalmicus, in which orbital symptoms and signs appear before the onset of a skin rash, is very rare. We experienced such a case and therefore report on it via magnetic resonance imaging. A 48-year-old man with pain and swelling of left eye and headache presented 2 days before onset of a zoster skin rash. On orbit-al MRI, edematous thickening of the left lateral rectus muscle with high signal intensity was revealed. After contrast injection, the lateral rectus muscle demonstrated heterogenous enhancement. Also, diffuse contrast enhancement was noted at left preseptal space, lacrimal gland and periorbital soft tissue. The man was treated with antiviral agents and prednisolone. Two weeks later, he recovered from the skin manifestations and most of the orbital manifestations except for the diplopia and restricted lateral movement.

  16. Metabolic alkalosis secondary to baking soda treatment of a diaper rash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, J; Hogg, R J

    1981-06-01

    A 4-month-old infant was seen with hypokalemic metabolic alkalosis that was associated with prior application of liberal amounts of sodium bicarbonate (baking soda) to a diaper rash. After exclusion of other etiologies of the infant's acid-base disturbance, a complete resolution occurred following discontinuation of the baking soda applications. This case report provides a reminder of the significant side effects that may result from the excessive use of a seemingly harmless household substance.

  17. Erlotinib augmentation with dapsone for rash mitigation and increased anti-cancer effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kast, R E

    2015-01-01

    The epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor erlotinib has failed in many ways to be as potent in the anti-cancer role as pre-clinical studies would have suggested. This paper traces some aspects of this failure to a compensatory erlotinib-mediated increase in interleukin-8. Many other-but not all- cancer chemotherapeutic cytotoxic drugs also provoke a compensatory increase in a malignant clone's interleukin-8 synthesis. Untreated glioblastoma and other cancer cells themselves natively synthesize interleukin-8. Interleukin-8 has tumor growth promoting, mobility and metastasis formation enhancing, effects as well as pro-angiogenesis effects. The old sulfone antibiotic dapsone- one of the very first antibiotics in clinical use- has demonstrated several interleukin-8 system inhibiting actions. Review of these indicates dapsone has potential to augment erlotinib effectiveness. Erlotinib typically gives a rash that has recently been proven to come about via an erlotinib triggered up-regulated keratinocyte interleukin-8 synthesis. The erlotinib rash shares histological features reminiscent of typical neutrophilic dermatoses. Dapsone has an established therapeutic role in current treatment of other neutrophilic dermatoses. Thus, dapsone has potential to both improve the quality of life in erlotinib treated patients by amelioration of rash as well as to short-circuit a growth-enhancing aspect of erlotinib when used in the anti-cancer role.

  18. Two family members with a syndrome of headache and rash caused by human parvovirus B19

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Carlos M. Pereira

    Full Text Available Human parvovirus B19 infection can cause erythema infectiosum (EI and several other clinical presentations. Central nervous system (CNS involvement is rare, and only a few reports of encephalitis and aseptic meningitis have been published. Here, we describe 2 cases of B19 infection in a family presenting different clinical features. A 30 year old female with a 7-day history of headache, malaise, myalgias, joint pains, and rash was seen. Physical examination revealed a maculopapular rash on the patient's body, and arthritis of the hands. She completely recovered in 1 week. Two days before, her 6 year old son had been admitted to a clinic with a 1-day history of fever, headache, abdominal pain and vomiting. On admission, he was alert, and physical examination revealed neck stiffness, Kerning and Brudzinski signs, and a petechial rash on his trunk and extremities. Cerebrospinal fluid analysis was normal. He completely recovered in 5 days. Acute and convalescent sera of both patients were positive for specific IgM antibody to B19. Human parvovirus B19 should be considered in the differential diagnosis of aseptic meningitis, particularly during outbreaks of erythema infectiosum. The disease may mimic meningococcemia and bacterial meningitis.

  19. Heat Rash

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Kids and Teens Pregnancy and Childbirth Women Men Seniors Your Health Resources Healthcare Management End-of-Life Issues Insurance & Bills Self Care Working With Your Doctor Drugs, Procedures & Devices Over-the- ...

  20. Azithromycin-Induced Rash in a Patient of Infectious Mononucleosis – A Case Report with Review of Literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Somnath; Sen, Sukanta; Tripathi, Santanu Kumar; Banerjee, Gautam

    2014-01-01

    Antibiotic induced skin rash in setting of infectious mononucleosis is often encountered in clinical practice. However, macrolides like azithromycin are considered relatively safe and till date only two cases of azithromycin induced rash in setting of infectious mononucleosis have been reported. The following report illustrates the case of a 23-year-old man suffering from infectious mononucleosis who exhibited a generalized cutaneous rash following treatment with azithromycin. Using the Naranjo ADR probability scale, this case of acute onset rash following azithromycin administration was found to be in ‘probable’ category. The mechanism of antibiotic-induced rash in patients suffering from infectious mononucleosis is incompletely understood. It has been suggested that the rash could result from virus mediated immunomodulation or due to altered drug metabolism. The report calls for cautious use of antibiotics in the setting of suspected viral infections like infectious mononucleosis as injudicious use might increase the risk of deleterious skin reactions and increase the cost of healthcare. PMID:25302218

  1. Occupational trichloroethylene hypersensitivity syndrome: human herpesvirus 6 reactivation and rash phenotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamijima, Michihiro; Wang, Hailan; Yamanoshita, Osamu; Ito, Yuki; Xia, Lihua; Yanagiba, Yukie; Chen, Cishan; Okamura, Ai; Huang, Zhenlie; Qiu, Xinxiang; Song, Xiangrong; Cai, Tingfeng; Liu, Lili; Ge, Yichen; Deng, Yingyu; Naito, Hisao; Yoshikawa, Tetsushi; Tohyama, Mikiko; Li, Laiyu; Huang, Hanlin; Nakajima, Tamie

    2013-12-01

    Trichloroethylene (TCE) is an industrial solvent which can cause severe generalized dermatitis, i.e., occupational TCE hypersensitivity syndrome. Reactivation of latent human herpesvirus 6 (HHV6) can occur in such patients, which has made TCE known as a causative chemical of drug-induced hypersensitivity syndrome (DIHS). This study aimed to clarify HHV6 status, cytokine profiles and their association with rash phenotypes in patients with TCE hypersensitivity syndrome. HHV6 DNA copy numbers, anti-HHV6 antibody titers, and cytokines were measured in blood prospectively sampled 5-7 times from 28 hospitalized patients with the disease. The patients (19 had exfoliative dermatitis (ED) and 9 had non-ED type rash) generally met the diagnostic criteria for DIHS. Viral reactivation defined as increases in either HHV6 DNA (≥100 genomic copies/10(6) peripheral blood mononuclear cells) or antibody titers was identified in 24 (89%) patients. HHV6 DNA, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, interferon (IFN)-γ, interleukin (IL)-5, IL-6 and IL-10 concentrations were remarkably higher in the patients than in the healthy workers (p<0.01). Positive correlations between HHV6 DNA, TNF-α, IFN-γ, IL-6 and IL-10 were significant (p<0.05) except for that between HHV6 DNA and IFN-γ. An increase in HHV6 DNA was positively associated with an increase in TNF-α on admission (p<0.01). HHV6 DNA, the antibody titers, TNF-α and IL-10 concentrations were significantly higher in ED than in the non-ED type (p<0.05). Reactivated HHV6 and the increased cytokines could be biomarkers of TCE hypersensitivity syndrome. The higher-level reactivation and stronger humoral responses were associated with ED-type rash. Copyright © 2013 Japanese Society for Investigative Dermatology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Cephalhematoma and petechial rashes associated with acute parvovirus B19 infection: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi, Masato; Shiozawa, Ryosuke; Hangai, Mayumi; Takita, Junko; Kitanaka, Sachiko

    2013-10-07

    Parvovirus B19 can cause petechial rashes in the acute phase of illness as well as erythema infectiosum (fifth disease) during convalescence. This petechial rash is often called "gloves and socks" syndrome because of the typical distribution of the eruption. However, involvement of other sites (e.g., intertriginous area) and generalized involvement have been recently recognized. We report here a patient with parvovirus-associated petechiae and cephalhematoma. The patient was a previously healthy 10-year-old boy. There was a family history of fatal bleeding; his sister died of intracranial bleeding with an uncertain cause at the age of 5 months. The patient was admitted to our hospital because of sudden onset of cephalhematoma associated with fever. He reported that he had no recent head trauma but that he massaged his scalp on the day before admission. On admission, his temperature was 38.8°C; otherwise, he was in a stable condition. Besides cephalhematoma, petechial rashes were present on his trunk and limbs. The initial laboratory tests were essentially normal, including platelet count and coagulation tests. Expanded laboratory tests were repeated to explore the etiology of his skin hemorrhage, all of which indicated that hematological disorders were unlikely. His symptoms subsided spontaneously over the next few days and he was discharged uneventfully. Anti-parvovirus IgM titer was elevated during hospitalization and typical erythema infectiosum was seen approximately 1 week after discharge. During 6 months follow-up, he remained stable without recurrence of a hemorrhagic episode. Finally, we concluded that his cephalhematoma was responsible for acute parvoviral infection. This is believed to be the first report describing a possible association between parvovirus B19 infection and cephalhematoma. Parvovirus B19 infection should be considered in the differential diagnosis of children who present with unexplained hemorrhage such as cephalhematoma or petechiae.

  3. A 30-Year-Old Man with HIV, Fever, and a Rash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhika Shah

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Patients who present with papular rashes have a wide differential diagnosis particularly in the setting of immune compromise. A 30-year-old male diagnosed with HIV since 2009, never on antiretroviral therapy, with a nadir CD4 count of 333 cells/mm3 and a current viral load of 44,300 copies/mL, presented with a diffuse monomorphic papular eruption that began on his trunk and extremities and subsequently spread to the penis and scrotum, sparing the distal acral sites. A thorough infectious workup revealed a positive rapid plasma reagin (RPR and varicella IgM and IgG antibodies. Interestingly, the patient had been diagnosed and treated for syphilis in the past with a recent downtrending RPR drawn prior to hospitalization. Repeat RPR was elevated and a preliminary histopathology report demonstrated folliculocentric inflammation with lymphocytes, plasma cells, and polymorphonuclear leukocyte predominance supported the diagnosis of syphilis. After receiving intramuscular penicillin G benzathine, he developed intermittent fevers and new papules. Intravenous (IV acyclovir was initiated for presumed disseminated varicella given his positive varicella-zoster virus IgM and IgG. However, final pathology results revealed a large spirochete burden. The fevers and rash progression were attributed to the development of a Jarisch-Herxheimer reaction. IV acyclovir was discontinued and he completed a course of intramuscular penicillin G benzathine. He was also given a course of doxycycline for rectal chlamydia which was diagnosed during hospitalization.

  4. The Association Between Skin Rashes and Work Environment, Personal Protective Equipment, and Hygiene Practices Among Female Farmworkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Kristina; Baker, Brenda; Tovar, Antonio; Economos, Eugenia; Williams, Bryan; McCauley, Linda

    2017-07-01

    The objective of this study was to assess work-related hygiene practices and the frequency and location of skin rashes due to cutaneous contact with crop-associated materials (e.g., pesticides) for female nursery and fernery workers in Central Florida. A cross-sectional, community-based participatory research study of 237 female nursery and fernery workers between the ages of 19 and 43 years with significant cutaneous contact with foliage crops was conducted using a self-report questionnaire and a skin rash chart assessment tool. Of the 237 farmworkers surveyed, 37.1% ( n = 88) reported a rash on at least one area of their bodies. Women who were pregnant during the study were 4.7 times more likely to report more than 30% total body surface area (TBSA) covered by rash compared with non-pregnant fernery workers ( p = .045; 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.04, 21.35]). Further research is needed to better understand the development of skin rashes among farmworkers, to generate effective prevention strategies.

  5. Rash related to use of scented products. A questionnaire study in the Danish population. Is the problem increasing?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, J D; Andersen, T F; Thomsen, L K

    2000-01-01

    . Further, it was determined whether risk of self-reported 1st-time rash from scented products had increased during the past 15 years compared to the preceding period. The sample consisted of 1537 persons, 801 female and 736 male, above the age of 15 years. The participants were interviewed person......Fragrances are used in many types of cosmetic and household products, which are an important part of everyday life in modern society. The aim of the current investigation was to describe the frequency of self-reported rash due to scented products in a random sample of the adult Danish population...

  6. A 25-Year-Old Male with Orogenital Ulcers, Rash, and Difficulty Swallowing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren N. Ko

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A 25-year-old otherwise healthy male presented with new-onset odynophagia, rash, and orogenital ulcers. Despite treatment with antibiotics for presumed bacterial pharyngitis, the patient remained symptomatic, with abnormal vital signs and laboratory values. Upon dermatology consultation and histopathologic correlation, he was diagnosed with Behçet disease. Behçet disease is a rare rheumatologic condition that presents with recurrent oral ulcers and varying degrees of ophthalmic, neurologic, cardiac, and vascular disease. Given its protean nature, the treatment of Behçet disease is tailored to the patient's presentation and severity of organ involvement. Following treatment with colchicine and prednisone, the patient's symptoms improved rapidly.

  7. Rash with DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System Use in Bilateral Reduction Mammoplasty: A Case Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knackstedt, R W; Dixon, J A; O'Neill, P J; Herrera, F A

    2015-01-01

    Background. Bilateral reduction mammoplasty is a common plastic surgery procedure that can be complicated by unfavorable scar formation along incision sites. Surgical adhesives can be utilized as an alternative or as an adjunct to conventional suture closures to help achieve good wound tension and provide an adequate barrier with excellent cosmesis. The recently introduced DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System Skin Closure System combines the skin adhesive 2-octyl cyanoacrylate with a self-adhering polyester-based mesh. Proposed benefits of wound closure with DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System, used with or without sutures, include its watertight seal, easy removal, microbial barrier, even distribution of tension, and reduction in wound closure time. Although allergic reactions to 2-octyl cyanoacrylate have been reported, few allergic reactions to DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System have been noted in the literature. This case series describes three patients who experienced an allergic reaction to DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System after undergoing elective bilateral reduction mammoplasties at our institution to further explore this topic. Methods. Retrospective chart review of bilateral reduction mammoplasty patients who received DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System dressing at our institution was performed. Results. Three patients were identified as having a rash in reaction to DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System after bilateral reduction mammoplasty. All three patients required systemic steroid treatment to resolve the rash. One patient was identified as having a prior adhesive reaction. Conclusions. DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System has demonstrated its efficacy in optimizing scar healing and appearance. However, as we demonstrate these three allergic reactions to DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System, caution must be utilized in its usage, namely, in patients with a prior adhesive allergy and in sites where moisture or friction may be apparent.

  8. Rash with DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System Use in Bilateral Reduction Mammoplasty: A Case Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. W. Knackstedt

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Bilateral reduction mammoplasty is a common plastic surgery procedure that can be complicated by unfavorable scar formation along incision sites. Surgical adhesives can be utilized as an alternative or as an adjunct to conventional suture closures to help achieve good wound tension and provide an adequate barrier with excellent cosmesis. The recently introduced DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System Skin Closure System combines the skin adhesive 2-octyl cyanoacrylate with a self-adhering polyester-based mesh. Proposed benefits of wound closure with DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System, used with or without sutures, include its watertight seal, easy removal, microbial barrier, even distribution of tension, and reduction in wound closure time. Although allergic reactions to 2-octyl cyanoacrylate have been reported, few allergic reactions to DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System have been noted in the literature. This case series describes three patients who experienced an allergic reaction to DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System after undergoing elective bilateral reduction mammoplasties at our institution to further explore this topic. Methods. Retrospective chart review of bilateral reduction mammoplasty patients who received DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System dressing at our institution was performed. Results. Three patients were identified as having a rash in reaction to DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System after bilateral reduction mammoplasty. All three patients required systemic steroid treatment to resolve the rash. One patient was identified as having a prior adhesive reaction. Conclusions. DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System has demonstrated its efficacy in optimizing scar healing and appearance. However, as we demonstrate these three allergic reactions to DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System, caution must be utilized in its usage, namely, in patients with a prior adhesive allergy and in sites where moisture or friction may

  9. Skin rash and arthritis a simplified appraisal of less common associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cozzi, A; Doria, A; Gisondi, P; Girolomoni, G

    2014-06-01

    Skin and joint manifestations are part of the clinical spectrum of many disorders. Well-known associations include psoriatic arthritis and arthritis associated with autoimmune connective tissue diseases. This review focuses on less common associations where skin lesions can provide easily accessible and valuable diagnostic clues, and directly lead to the specific diagnosis or limit the list of possibilities. This may also affect health care resources as diagnostic tests are often low-specific, highly expensive and poorly available. This group of diseases can be divided into two subsets, based on the presence/absence of fever, and then further classified according to elementary skin lesions (macular, urticarial, maculo-papular, vesico-bullous, pustular, petechial and nodular). In most instances joint involvement occurs as peripheral migrating polyarthritis. Erythematosus macular or urticarial rashes occur in most febrile disorders such as monogenic autoinflammatory syndromes, Schnitzler's syndrome, Still's disease and rheumatic fever and afebrile diseases as urticarial vasculitis. Pustular rash may be observed in chronic recurrent multifocal osteomyelitis (CRMO) and pyogenic arthritis with pyoderma gangrenosum and acne (PAPA) syndrome (both febrile) as well as in Behcet's disease and Synovitis, acne, pustulosis, hyperostosis and osteitis syndrome (both non-febrile). Papular lesions are typical of secondary syphilis, sarcoidosis, interstitial granulomatous dermatitis, papular petechial of cutaneous small-vessel vasculitis and nodular lesions of polyarteritis nodosa and multicentric reticulohistiocytosis all of which are afebrile. Differential diagnosis includes infections and drug reactions which may mimic several of these conditions. To biopsy the right skin lesion at the right time it is essential to obtain relevant histological information. © 2013 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

  10. Drug rash with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms syndrome associated with use of phenytoin, divalproex sodium, and phenobarbital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brizendine, Christina E; Naik, Paras J

    2013-03-15

    A probable case of drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) associated with consecutive use of three medications for seizure control is reported. A 36-year-old woman was treated at a community hospital for a mild fever (37.9°C) and diffuse raised maculopapular rash with erythema. Three weeks previously, she had been diagnosed with a seizure disorder and initiated on phenytoin (dose unknown) at that time; about two weeks later, she developed a rash, prompting a switch from phenytoin to extended-release divalproex sodium 250 mg orally twice daily. During the week after discontinuation of phenytoin, the rash was improving, but about five days after the initiation of divalproex therapy, she had worsening rash and pruritus requiring urgent treatment; the divalproex was discontinued, and phenobarbital 30 mg three times daily was initiated for continued seizure control. Despite the discontinuation of phenytoin and divalproex, the patient's hepatic function worsened over five days, and phenobarbital therapy was discontinued. With continued deterioration of the patient's condition to fulminant hepatic failure, a transfer to a liver transplant facility was arranged. The use of the adverse reaction probability scale of Naranjo et al. in this case yielded a score of 8, indicating a probable relationship between DRESS and the serial use of phenytoin, divalproex, and phenobarbital. After receiving phenytoin for treatment of seizure disorder, a 36-year-old woman developed a fever and maculopapular rash with erythema. This reaction continued even after drug therapy was switched to extended-release divalproex and then phenobarbital. The patient's liver function deteriorated despite discontinuation of all seizure medications.

  11. Amoxicillin rash in patients with infectious mononucleosis: evidence of true drug sensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ónodi-Nagy, Katinka; Kinyó, Ágnes; Meszes, Angéla; Garaczi, Edina; Kemény, Lajos; Bata-Csörgő, Zsuzsanna

    2015-01-01

    It hasn't been clearly understood yet whether sensitization to antibiotics, the virus itself or transient loss of drug tolerance due to the virus, is responsible for the development of maculopapular exanthems following amoxicillin intake in patients with infectious mononucleosis. We aimed to examine whether sensitization to penicillin developed among patients with skin rash following amoxicillin treatment within infectious mononucleosis. Ten patients were investigated for drug sensitization by lymphocyte transformation test and six patients were further tested by prick-, intradermal and patch tests employing the penicillin's main antigens. Lymphocyte transformation test showed negative results with amoxicillin, while one patient had positive reaction to cefixime. Six patients with suspected sensitization to amoxicillin were then investigated by in vivo tests. Prick tests were negative in all six patients, but the intradermal tests showed positive reactions in four patients. Our data demonstrate that in vitro testing is not sensitive enough in determining drug sensitization to penicillin. In vivo tests should be performed to detect sensitization and indeed with skin tests our results confirmed that sensitization to aminopenicillin may develop within infectious mononucleosis.

  12. Transverse myelitis associated with an itchy rash and hyperckemia: neuromyelitis optica associated with dermatitis herpetiformis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Anand; Rathnasabapathi, Devipriya; Elsone, Liene; Mutch, Kerry; Terlizzo, Monica; Footitt, David; Jacob, Anu

    2014-05-01

    Neuromyelitis optica is associated with severe neurodisability if not recognized and treated promptly. Several autoimmune disorders are associated with this condition and may vary in their presentation. It is essential that clinicians are aware of the uncommon presenting features of neuromyelitis optica and associated autoimmune conditions. A 53-year-old woman presented with nausea and vomiting and was noted to have an asymptomatic elevated creatinine kinase level, which improved with conservative management. She had a history of iron-deficiency anemia due to long-standing celiac disease that was managed with a gluten-free diet. She then presented with recurrent transverse myelitis and a vesicobullous rash over her arms and feet that was pruritic and excoriating. Skin biopsy results confirmed a clinical diagnosis of dermatitis herpetiformis and antibody test findings against aquaporin-4 were positive, leading to a diagnosis of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder. She was treated with methylprednisolone sodium succinate, plasma exchange, and azathioprine and has remained in remission. This report highlights the association of neuromyelitis optica with dermatitis herpetiformis, which can present even without clinical features of celiac disease. Nausea, vomiting, and asymptomatic hyperCKemia should be recognized as rare presenting features of neuromyelitis optica.

  13. Clinical and Laboratory evaluation of measleslike rash in children and young adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewien Klaus Eberhard

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A clinical and laboratory evaluation of 11 children and young adults with measleslike rash was done during the measles outbreak in the Greater São Paulo Metropolitan area at the end of 1996 and spread over the country during 1997. Measles was laboratory confirmed in 07 patients by specific IgM detection in acute serum specimens using an IgM-capture EIA, by specific IgG seroconversion in serum pairs, and by reverse transcription PCR and virus isolation in peripheral blood lymphocytes. Clinical presentations were not always classic; one of the 07 cases had received measles vaccine and corresponded to modified clinical case of measles. The 4 remaining cases were negative for measles and were diagnosed as exanthem subitum (2 cases, scarlet fever and Kawasaki disease. The present study reinforces the view that clinical features alone are not sufficient for establishing an accurate diagnosis in the post-vaccine era, and a surveillance system based on sensitive laboratory results is needed so that it can confirm IgM-negative measles cases.

  14. An Unrecognized Rash Progressing to Lyme Carditis: Important Features and Recommendations Regarding Lyme Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shawn; Singla, Montish

    2016-01-01

    We present a case report of 46-year-old man with no medical history, who complained of extreme fatigue, near-syncope, and palpitations. He initially presented in complete heart block. A transvenous pacemaker was placed in the emergency department, and he was started empirically on Ceftriaxone for Lyme disease. He was admitted and over the course of the next few days, his rhythm regressed to Mobitz type I first-degree atrioventricular block and then to normal sinus rhythm. This case report highlights some important features regarding Lyme carditis, a rare presentation of early disseminated Lyme disease (seen in a few weeks to months after the initial tick bite). In 25%-30% of patients, the characteristic targetoid rash may not be seen, a likely culprit of the disease not being detected early and progressing to disseminated disease. The most common cardiac complaint of Lyme disease is palpitations, occurring in 6.6% of patients, which may not accurately reflect progression into disseminated Lyme disease because it is a nonspecific finding. Conduction abnormality, occurring in 1.8% of patients, is a more specific finding of Borrelia invading cardiac tissue. Finally, this case report highlights a recommendation that patients with confirmed Lyme disease or those presenting with cardiac abnormalities or symptoms who have an atypical profile for a cardiac event should be screened with a 12-lead electrocardiogram, Lyme serology, and be considered for antibiotic therapy with the possibility of temporary pacing.

  15. Metabolic differentiation of early Lyme disease from southern tick-associated rash illness (STARI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molins, Claudia R; Ashton, Laura V; Wormser, Gary P; Andre, Barbara G; Hess, Ann M; Delorey, Mark J; Pilgard, Mark A; Johnson, Barbara J; Webb, Kristofor; Islam, M Nurul; Pegalajar-Jurado, Adoracion; Molla, Irida; Jewett, Mollie W; Belisle, John T

    2017-08-16

    Lyme disease, the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in the United States, results from infection with Borrelia burgdorferi. Early clinical diagnosis of this disease is largely based on the presence of an erythematous skin lesion for individuals in high-risk regions. This, however, can be confused with other illnesses including southern tick-associated rash illness (STARI), an illness that lacks a defined etiological agent or laboratory diagnostic test, and is coprevalent with Lyme disease in portions of the eastern United States. By applying an unbiased metabolomics approach with sera retrospectively obtained from well-characterized patients, we defined biochemical and diagnostic differences between early Lyme disease and STARI. Specifically, a metabolic biosignature consisting of 261 molecular features (MFs) revealed that altered N -acyl ethanolamine and primary fatty acid amide metabolism discriminated early Lyme disease from STARI. Development of classification models with the 261-MF biosignature and testing against validation samples differentiated early Lyme disease from STARI with an accuracy of 85 to 98%. These findings revealed metabolic dissimilarity between early Lyme disease and STARI, and provide a powerful and new approach to inform patient management by objectively distinguishing early Lyme disease from an illness with nearly identical symptoms. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  16. An epidemiological investigation into an outbreak of rash illness among methadone maintenance clients in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAnulty, Jeremy M; Jauncey, Marianne E; Monger, Claire K; Hailstone, Susan T; Alam, Noore K M; Mannes, Trish F; Capon, Adam G; Irvine, Katie; Armstrong, Paul K; Kaldor, John M

    2007-05-01

    In late 2004, NSW Health received several reports of a serious desquamating rash among clients of the methadone program. We sought to identify the extent and likely cause of this outbreak. We initiated active surveillance for cases throughout Australia, a survey of dosing points in NSW, and a case control study of clients receiving methadone syrup (MS) at two clinics. Between October 2004 and March 2005, 388 cases were identified, largely in NSW. The dosing point survey found almost all cases were clients prescribed MS (attack rate 4.5%). In multivariate analysis of data from dosing points that dispensed MS, use of take away doses or location of the dosing point in greater western Sydney were associated with illness. In the case control study, MS injection, use of street MS, high doses of MS, frequent takeaway doses, or use of benzodiazepines were associated with illness. Testing found no abnormality in associated batches of MS. Batches of MS temporally associated with the outbreak were quarantined from use and the outbreak subsided. While a direct causal link could not be established, available evidence suggests that a contaminant may have caused the outbreak. Epidemiological analyses are important for assessing concerns about product safety following marketing approval.

  17. [Drug rash with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms syndrome induced by carbamazepine: Case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marín, Jorge Alonso; Ortega, Mayra Alexandra; Sánchez, Isaura Pilar; Pacheco, José Armando

    2017-06-01

    Drug rash with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) syndrome is a hypersensitivity reaction associated with a variety of drugs, mainly anticonvulsants, which is characterized by systemic symptoms and erythematous lesions, common to other toxicodermas. It is an uncommon clinical entity that requires a high suspicion by clinical staff given its varied initial presentation, and the fact that symptoms can overlap with those of other adverse cutaneous reactions to drugs. Without early diagnosis and appropriate treatment, mortality increases.We report the case of a 22-year-old patient with impaired neurodevelopment who received treatment with carbamazepine. Two months later he presented with general symptoms and skin erythematous lesions that began on his trunk. The patient received outpatient care with antihistamines and antipyretics without an appropriate response. His case progressed with increased skin lesions and systemic symptoms that met the diagnostic criteria for DRESS syndrome. He was hospitalized and received medical treatment according to recommended guidelines. The patient's condition improved as his symptoms and associated complications resolved. He was discharged with gradual clearing of the steroid therapy.

  18. A 6-year-old girl with fever, rash, and increased intracranial pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravish, Matthew E; Krowchuk, Daniel P; Zapadka, Michael; Shetty, Avinash K

    2013-08-01

    Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a well-described, potentially lethal, tick-borne zoonotic infection and has very effective therapy. However, the diagnosis might not be made early enough, often leading to worse outcomes. Our aim was to discuss the diagnostic dilemmas facing the physician when evaluating patients with suspected RMSF. We report a case of RMSF in a 6-year-old girl who presented to our hospital with a 7-day history of fever, headache, and a petechial rash. After blood cultures were obtained, the patient was treated empirically with doxycycline, vancomycin, and ceftriaxone. During the next 24 h, her clinical status worsened, with acute onset of altered mental status, posturing, and fixed and dilated pupils. A computed tomography scan of the brain demonstrated diffuse cerebral edema with evidence of tonsillar herniation. She died 24 h after admission. A serum specimen tested positive for immunoglobulin G to Rickettsia rickettsii at a titer of 128 dilutions, confirming recent infection. We present this case to raise awareness of RMSF in patients who present with a nonspecific febrile illness in tick-endemic areas in the United States. Early diagnosis and treatment with doxycycline before day 5 of illness is essential and can prevent morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. MEDICAL PRACTICE IN CHILDREN PRESENTING FEVER WITH PETECHIAL RASH TO AN EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitrascu-Biris, Ioana; Chirita-Emandi, Adela; Lambert, Imelda; Marginean, Otilia; Sharif, Farhana

    2016-01-01

    The association of fever and petechiae in children is one of the most alarming findings for a paediatrician. To quickly distinguish between benign and life-threatening conditions is challenging in many cases. We aimed to evaluate the clinical practice of children presenting with fever and petechiae as initial symptoms. 41 patients (age 3 months-11 years) presenting with fever and petechiae were identified in an Emergency Paediatric Assessment Unit over a period of 9 months. General data, symptoms and signs were assessed for each patient. The work-up consisted in: complete blood count, inflammatory tests, coagulation tests, Monospot test, nasopharyngeal rapid tests, blood culture, and cerebrospinal fluid culture where appropriate. Most children were 6 mg/l was poorly correlated with serious illness. The following variables were strongly associated with serious illness: ill appearance, shivering, lethargy, back rigidity, ESR>50 mm/h and prolonged capillary refill time. 59% (24/41) of children were treated with antibiotics, however, at discharge 42%(10/24) of them, did not have a work-up suggestive for a bacterial illness. Screening for low prevalence but high morbidity conditions, as the meningococcal disease, with an extensive work-up is time and resource consuming and may lead to unmotivated antibiotic use. Larger studies are needed to change the emergency practice for management of fever and rash.

  20. Smart Rash Driver System via Internet of Things (IoT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheau Tong Kong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nearly half a million accidents on Malaysians road occur in 2015. The aim of this research is to detect car speed, capture the photo of the speeding car and then transfer the data like car speed, date and time, location and lane number to an online database. A distance sensor is used to measure the distance range between two points on the road. The ESP8266 NodeMCU will be the control unit to process the data and calculate the speed with the formula of speed equal to distance over time. The ESP8266 NodeMCU is also a Wi-Fi module to help in transferring data via IoT to an online database. The Google spreadsheet acted as an online database and will receive all the data if detected a speeding car. In conclusion, the Smart Rash Driver System is successfully invented and able to detect vehicle speed, capture the photo of over speed vehicle and save it to the SD card and lastly transfer all data via IoT to the Google Spreadsheet. This invention will be able to help to decrease the road accident rate efficiently.

  1. Dose escalation to rash for erlotinib plus gemcitabine for metastatic pancreatic cancer: the phase II RACHEL study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Cutsem, E; Li, C-P; Nowara, E; Aprile, G; Moore, M; Federowicz, I; Van Laethem, J-L; Hsu, C; Tham, C K; Stemmer, S M; Lipp, R; Zeaiter, A; Fittipaldo, A; Csutor, Z; Klughammer, B; Meng, X; Ciuleanu, T

    2014-11-25

    This phase II, open-label, randomised study evaluated whether patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer receiving erlotinib/gemcitabine derived survival benefits from increasing the erlotinib dose. After a 4-week run-in period (gemcitabine 1000 mg m(-2) once weekly plus erlotinib 100 mg per day), patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer who developed grade 0/1 rash were randomised to receive gemcitabine plus erlotinib dose escalation (150 mg, increasing by 50 mg every 2 weeks (maximum 250 mg); n=71) or gemcitabine plus standard-dose erlotinib (100 mg per day; n=75). The primary end point was to determine whether overall survival (OS) was improved by increasing the erlotinib dose. Secondary end points included progression-free survival (PFS), incidence of grade ⩾2 rash, and safety. Erlotinib dose escalation induced grade ⩾2 rash in 29 out of 71 (41.4%) patients compared with 7 out of 75 (9.3%) patients on standard dose. Efficacy was not significantly different in the dose-escalation arm compared with the standard-dose arm (OS: median 7.0 vs 8.4 months, respectively, hazard ratio (HR), 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-1.80; P=0.2026; PFS: median 3.5 vs 4.5 months, respectively, HR, 1.09, 95% CI: 0.77-1.54; P=0.6298). Incidence of adverse events was comparable between randomised arms. The erlotinib dose-escalation strategy induced rash in some patients; there was no evidence that the higher dose translated into increased benefit.

  2. Etiology of maculopapular rash in measles and rubella suspected patients from Belarus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina A Yermalovich

    Full Text Available As a result of successful implementation of the measles/rubella elimination program, the etiology of more and more double negative cases remains elusive. The present study determined the role of different viruses as causative agents in measles or rubella suspected cases in Belarus. A total of 856 sera sent to the WHO National Laboratory between 2009 and 2011 were tested for specific IgM antibodies to measles virus (MV, rubella virus (RV and human parvovirus B19 (B19V. The negatives were further investigated for antibodies to enterovirus (EV and adenovirus (AdV. Children of up to 3 years were tested for IgM antibodies to human herpesvirus 6 (HHV6. A viral etiology was identified in 451 (52.7% cases, with 6.1% of the samples being positive for MV; 2.6% for RV; 26.2% for B19V; 9.7% for EV; 4.6% for AdV; and 3.6% for HHV6. Almost all measles and rubella cases occurred during limited outbreaks in 2011 and nearly all patients were at least 15 years old. B19V, EV and AdV infections were prevalent both in children and adults and were found throughout the 3 years. B19V occurred mainly in 3-10 years old children and 20-29 years old adults. EV infection was most common in children up to 6 years of age and AdV was confirmed mainly in 3-6 years old children. HHV6 infection was mostly detected in 6-11 months old infants. Laboratory investigation of measles/rubella suspected cases also for B19V, EV, AdV and HHV6 allows diagnosing more than half of all cases, thus strengthening rash/fever disease surveillance in Belarus.

  3. Another Look at Impulsivity: A Meta- Analytic Review Comparing Specific Dispositions to Rash Action in their Relationship to Bulimic Symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Sarah; Smith, Gregory T.; Cyders, Melissa A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent advances in personality theory indicate that there are distinct constructs that dispose individuals to rash action and risky behavior, as opposed to one broad trait of impulsivity. Two are emotion based, two represent deficits in conscientiousness, and one is sensation seeking. Previous studies of impulsivity and its relationship to bulimia nervosa have yielded mixed findings. The authors applied this advance in personality theory to the study of bulimia nervosa (BN) to test the hypothesis that the emotion-based disposition of negative urgency (the tendency to act rashly when distressed) relates most strongly to BN symptoms. A meta analysis of 50 articles indicated the following. Negative urgency had by far the largest effect size (weighted r = .38), followed by sensation seeking (weighted r = .16); lack of planning (weighted r = .16) and lack of persistence (weighted r = .08). Methodological moderators of the effect of distinct traits on BN symptoms were the use of scales that precisely measured one construct as opposed to general impulsivity scales that measured several constructs, clinical vs. non-clinical samples, and whether or not the personality scale was translated from its original language or not. Negative urgency appears especially important for BN; more broadly, researchers should consider the role of emotion-based dispositions to rash acts in their risk theories. PMID:18848741

  4. Clinical impact of minocycline on afatinib-related rash in patients with non-small cell lung cancer harboring epidermal growth factor receptor mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Ayano; Ozawa, Yuichi; Koda, Keigo; Akahori, Daisuke; Koyauchi, Takashi; Amano, Yusuke; Kakutani, Takuya; Sato, Yoshiko; Hasegawa, Hirotsugu; Matsui, Takashi; Yokomura, Koshi; Suda, Takafumi

    2018-03-01

    The management of skin toxicity is crucial for efficient afatinib treatment, but the role of tetracycline class antibiotics (TCs) in managing these rashes is relatively unknown. We reviewed the clinical records of patients who were administered afatinib for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer harboring epidermal growth factor receptor mutations between October 2014 and November 2016. Twenty-five patients, who received TCs for the management of afatinib-related skin disorders, were enrolled. Minocycline was administered orally to participants. Afatinib-related toxic effects, such as rash, diarrhea, and paronychia, were observed in 92%, 92%, and 40% of cases, respectively. Although 24% of diarrhea and 4% of paronychia cases were rated grade 3 or higher, no severe cases of rash were observed during afatinib treatment. Of the 18 afatinib dose reductions, 14 (78%), three (17%), and one (6%) resulted from diarrhea, paronychia, and stomatitis, respectively; no patients required a dose reduction because of rash. When minocycline treatment started, 21 patients (84%) had a rash of grade 1 or less, and three patients had a grade 2 rash. A response to afatinib was observed in 18 patients (72%) and the median duration of afatinib administration was 501 days. An adverse event related to minocycline (grade 1 nausea) was observed in one patient. A large proportion of the study patients started minocycline before grade 2 rash development and the severity of afatinib-related rash was lower than that previously reported. Oral TCs may be beneficial, especially if started early. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Respiratory Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Successful oral desensitization against skin rash induced by alectinib in a patient with anaplastic lymphoma kinase-positive lung adenocarcinoma: A case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirasawa, Masayuki; Kubotaa, Masaru; Harada, Shinya; Niwa, Hideyuki; Kusuhara, Seiichiro; Kasajima, Masashi; Hiyoshi, Yasuhiro; Ishihara, Mikiko; Igawa, Satoshi; Masuda, Noriyuki

    2016-09-01

    Alectinib has been approved for the treatment of patients with anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene rearrangement-positive advanced non-small cell lung cancer. In terms of adverse effects, the occurrence of a severe skin rash induced by alectinib is reportedly rare, compared with the occurrence of skin rash induced by epithelial growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs). In the present case report, a 76-year-old woman with ALK-positive lung adenocarcinoma experienced disease progression after undergoing first-line chemotherapy. Subsequently, alectinib was administered as a second-line therapy. However, she discontinued alectinib therapy after 11days because of the occurrence of an alectinib-induced skin rash. Since the skin rash improved within one week, we attempted to perform oral desensitization to alectinib. The patient has not shown any recurrence of the rash or disease progression for 7 months since the successful oral desensitization to alectinib. Here, we describe the first case of successful oral desensitization against a skin rash induced by alectinib in a patient with ALK-positive lung adenocarcinoma. Desensitization to overcome adverse effects and to enable sustained treatment with alectinib should be considered in patients who develop alectinib sensitivities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Human leukocyte antigen genotypes and trial of desensitization in patients with oxcarbazepine-induced skin rash: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Bolyun; Yu, Hee Joon; Kang, Eun-Suk; Lee, Munhyang; Lee, Jeehun

    2014-08-01

    Skin rash associated with specific antiepileptic drugs occurs not infrequently and it usually necessitates discontinuation of the causative drugs. An alternative strategy is to desensitize the individual to the offending drug. We checked the human leukocyte antigen genotypes and conducted a pilot study to investigate the usefulness and safety of desensitization in pediatric patients with skin rash associated with oxcarbazepine. We enrolled 19 patients with epilepsy who had discontinued oxcarbazepine because of skin rash despite an initial good response and then became refractory to other antiepileptic drugs along with an individual with paroxysmal kinesigenic dyskinesia with a similar situation. High-resolution HLA-A and -B genotyping was performed to investigate the genetic risk. The desensitization began with 0.1 mg daily reaching 120 mg on the thirty-first day. Thereafter, the dose was increased at a rate of 12 mg/day. Nineteen patients completed the desensitization protocol to a target dosage over 2-5 months. Five patients developed itching and erythema during desensitization, but the symptoms disappeared after withholding a dose increment transiently. There were no human leukocyte antigen genotypes relevant to aromatic antiepileptic drug-induced severe hypersensitivity reactions. The seizure frequency was reduced to less than at baseline in 18 individuals. This study demonstrated 95% efficacy, including 42% seizure-free patients and the favorable tolerability of desensitization to oxcarbazepine in patients with intractable epilepsy and one patient with paroxysmal kinesigenic dyskinesia. Screening for sensitive human leukocyte antigen types and exclusion of severe hypersensitivity reactions should precede desensitization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Neisseria lactamica Causing a Lung Cavity and Skin Rash in a Renal Transplant Patient: First Report from India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid Hamid Changal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neisseria lactamica, a commensal, has been very rarely reported to cause diseases in immunocompromised hosts. In medical literature, there is only one report of a cavitatory lung lesion caused by it. The patient was a kidney transplant recipient. Neisseria lactamica was found to be the cause of his pulmonary cavity and a desquamating rash on feet. With the rapidly spreading medical advance, more and more patients are getting organ transplants, so the population of immunocompromised people is on the rise. We expect more sinister and less expected organisms to cause diseases in patients who have organ transplants.

  8. Distribution of erlotinib in rash and normal skin in cancer patients receiving erlotinib visualized by matrix assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimura, Meiko; Hayashi, Mitsuhiro; Mizutani, Yu; Takenaka, Kei; Imamura, Yoshinori; Chayahara, Naoko; Toyoda, Masanori; Kiyota, Naomi; Mukohara, Toru; Aikawa, Hiroaki; Fujiwara, Yasuhiro; Hamada, Akinobu; Minami, Hironobu

    2018-04-06

    The development of skin rashes is the most common adverse event observed in cancer patients treated with epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitors such as erlotinib. However, the pharmacological evidence has not been fully revealed. Erlotinib distribution in the rashes was more heterogeneous than that in the normal skin, and the rashes contained statistically higher concentrations of erlotinib than adjacent normal skin in the superficial skin layer (229 ± 192 vs. 120 ± 103 ions/mm 2 ; P = 0.009 in paired t -test). LC-MS/MS confirmed that the concentration of erlotinib in the skin rashes was higher than that in normal skin in the superficial skin layer (1946 ± 1258 vs. 1174 ± 662 ng/cm 3 ; P = 0.028 in paired t -test). The results of MALDI-MSI and LC-MS/MS were well correlated (coefficient of correlation 0.879, P distribution of erlotinib in the skin tissue was visualized using non-labeled MALDI-MSI. Erlotinib concentration in the superficial layer of the skin rashes was higher than that in the adjacent normal skin. We examined patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who developed skin rashes after treatment with erlotinib and gemcitabine. We biopsied both the rash and adjacent normal skin tissues, and visualized and compared the distribution of erlotinib within the skin using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry imaging (MALDI-MSI). The tissue concentration of erlotinib was also measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) with laser microdissection.

  9. Placebo-controlled phase II study of vitamin K3 cream for the treatment of cetuximab-induced rash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksen, Jesper Grau; Kaalund, Inger; Clemmensen, Ole; Overgaard, Jens; Pfeiffer, Per

    2017-07-01

    Cetuximab inhibits the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and papulopustular eruptions is a frequent side effect. Vitamin K3 (menadione) has preclinically shown to be a potential activator of the EGFR by phosphorylating the receptor (pEGFR). The present randomised study investigated the effect of a vitamin K3 cream on cetuximab-induced rash. Thirty patients were included in this double-blinded placebo-controlled trial. Patients receiving cetuximab 500 mg/m 2 every second week plus chemotherapy for metastatic cancer were included. In each patient, vitamin K3 cream and placebo were applied twice daily on two separate areas of the skin of minimum 10 × 10 cm for up to 2 months. Papulopustular eruptions were evaluated clinically and monitored by clinical photos. Skin biopsies, from ten patients taken before and after 1 month of treatment from each treatment area, were stained for EGFR and pEGFR. Application of vitamin K3 cream twice daily during treatment with cetuximab did not reduce the number of papulopustular eruptions, and this was independent of the use of systemic tetracycline. No significant changes in the staining of EGFR or pEGFR were observed in the skin of the vitamin K3-treated area compared to the placebo area. The present data do not support any clinical or immunohistochemical benefit of using vitamin K3 cream for cetuximab-induced rash.

  10. Rash impulsiveness and reward sensitivity in relation to risky drinking by university students: potential roles of frontal systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyvers, Michael; Duff, Helen; Basch, Vanessa; Edwards, Mark S

    2012-08-01

    Two forms of impulsivity, rash impulsiveness and reward sensitivity, have been proposed to reflect aspects of frontal lobe functioning and promote substance use. The present study examined these two forms of impulsivity as well as frontal lobe symptoms in relation to risky drinking by university students. University undergraduates aged 18-26years completed the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire (SPSRQ), Frontal Systems Behavior Scale (FrSBe), and a demographics questionnaire assessing age, gender, and age of onset of weekly drinking (AOD). AUDIT-defined harmful drinkers reported earlier AOD and scored higher on BIS-11, the Sensitivity to Reward (SR) scale of the SPSRQ, and the Disinhibition and Executive Dysfunction scales of the FrSBe compared to lower risk groups. Differences remained significant after controlling for duration of alcohol exposure. Path analyses indicated that the influence of SR on AUDIT was mediated by FrSBe Disinhibition, whereas the influence of BIS-11 on AUDIT was mediated by both Disinhibition and Executive Dysfunction scales of the FrSBe. Findings tentatively suggest that the influence of rash impulsiveness on drinking may reflect dysfunction in dorsolateral prefrontal and orbitofrontal systems, whereas the influence of reward sensitivity on drinking may primarily reflect orbitofrontal dysfunction. Irrespective of the underlying functional brain systems involved, results appear to be more consistent with a pre-drinking trait interpretation than effects of alcohol exposure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Placebo-controlled phase II study of vitamin K3 cream for the treatment of cetuximab-induced rash

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jesper Grau; Kaalund, Inger; Clemmensen, Ole

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: Cetuximab inhibits the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and papulopustular eruptions is a frequent side effect. Vitamin K3 (menadione) has preclinically shown to be a potential activator of the EGFR by phosphorylating the receptor (pEGFR). The present randomised study investigated...... the effect of a vitamin K3 cream on cetuximab-induced rash. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty patients were included in this double-blinded placebo-controlled trial. Patients receiving cetuximab 500 mg/m2 every second week plus chemotherapy for metastatic cancer were included. In each patient, vitamin K3 cream...... stained for EGFR and pEGFR. RESULTS: Application of vitamin K3 cream twice daily during treatment with cetuximab did not reduce the number of papulopustular eruptions, and this was independent of the use of systemic tetracycline. No significant changes in the staining of EGFR or pEGFR were observed...

  12. Correlation Between the Severity of Cetuximab-Induced Skin Rash and Clinical Outcome for Head and Neck Cancer Patients: The RTOG Experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bar-Ad, Voichita, E-mail: voichita.bar-ad@jefferson.edu [Jefferson Medical College of Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Zhang, Qiang [NRG Oncology Statistics and Data Management Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Harari, Paul M. [University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin (United States); Axelrod, Rita [Jefferson Medical College of Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Rosenthal, David I. [University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Trotti, Andy [H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida (United States); Jones, Christopher U. [Radiological Associates of Sacramento, Sacramento, California (United States); Garden, Adam S. [University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Song, Guobin [Virginia Mason Medical Center, Seattle, Washington (United States); Foote, Robert L. [Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota (United States); Raben, David [University of Colorado Comprehensive Cancer Center, Denver, Colorado (United States); Shenouda, George [McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Spencer, Sharon A. [University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama (United States); Harris, Jonathan [NRG Oncology Statistics and Data Management Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Le, Quynh-Thu [Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the severity of cetuximab-induced skin rash and its correlation with clinical outcome and late skin toxicity in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with chemoradiation therapy and cetuximab. Methods and Materials: Analysis included patients who received loading dose and ≥1 cetuximab dose concurrent with definitive chemoradiation therapy (70 Gy + cisplatin) or postoperative chemoradiation therapy (60-66 Gy + docetaxel or cisplatin). Results: Six hundred two patients were analyzed; 383 (63.6%) developed grade 2 to 4 cetuximab rash. Patients manifesting grade 2 to 4 rash had younger age (P<.001), fewer pack-years smoking history (P<.001), were more likely to be males (P=.04), and had p16-negative (P=.04) oropharyngeal tumors (P=.003). In univariate analysis, grade 2 to 4 rash was associated with better overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.58, P<.001) and progression-free survival (HR 0.75, P=.02), and reduced distant metastasis rate (HR 0.61, P=.03), but not local-regional failure (HR 0.79, P=.16) relative to grade 0 to 1 rash. In multivariable analysis, HRs for overall survival, progression-free survival, distant metastasis, and local-regional failure were, respectively, 0.68 (P=.008), 0.85 (P=.21), 0.64 (P=.06), and 0.89 (P=.48). Grade ≥2 rash was associated with improved survival in p16-negative patients (HR 0.28 [95% confidence interval 0.11-0.74]) but not in p16-positive patients (HR 1.10 [0.42-2.89]) (P=.05 for interaction). Twenty-five percent of patients with grade 2 to 4 acute in-field radiation dermatitis experienced grade 2 to 4 late skin fibrosis, versus 14% of patients with grade 0 to 1 acute in-field radiation dermatitis (P=.002). Conclusion: Grade 2 to 4 cetuximab rash was associated with better survival, possibly due to reduction of distant metastasis. This observation was noted mainly in p16-negative patients. Grade 2 to 4 acute in-field radiation dermatitis was associated with higher rate of

  13. Correlation between the severity of cetuximab-induced skin rash and clinical outcome for head and neck cancer patients: The XXXX experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-Ad, Voichita; Zhang, Qiang (Ed); Harari, Paul M.; Axelrod, Rita; Rosenthal, David I.; Trotti, Andy; Jones, Christopher U.; Garden, Adam S.; Song, Guobin; Foote, Robert L.; Raben, David; Shenouda, George; Spencer, Sharon A.; Harris, Jonathan; Le, Quynh-Thu

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of the present study was to evaluate severity of cetuximab-induced skin rash and its correlation with clinical outcome and late skin toxicity in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with chemoradiotherapy and cetuximab. Materials & Methods Analysis included patients who received loading dose and ≥ 1cetuximab dose concurrent with definitive chemoradiotherapy (70Gy + cisplatin) or postoperative chemoradiotherapy (60–66Gy + docetaxel or cisplatin). Results Six hundred two patients were analyzed; 383 (63.6%) developed Grade 2–4 cetuximab rash. Patients manifesting Grade 2–4 rash had younger age (p<0.001), fewer pack-years smoking history (p<0.001), were more likely to be males (p=0.04), and had p16-negative (p=0.04) oropharyngeal tumors (p=0.003). In univariate analysis, Grade 2–4 rash was associated with better overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio [HR] 0.58, p<0.001) and progression-free survival (PFS) (HR 0.75, p=0.02), and reduced distant metastasis (DM) rate (HR 0.61, p=0.03), but not local-regional failure (LRF) (HR 0.79, p=0.16) relative to Grade 0–1 rash. In multivariable analysis, HRs for OS, PFS, DM, and LRF were 0.68 (p=0.008), 0.85 (p=0.21), 0.64 (p=0.06), and 0.89 (p=0.48). Grade ≥2 rash was associated with improved survival in p16 negative patients (HR 0.28 (0.11–0.74)) but not in p16 positive patients (HR 1.10 (0.42–2.89)) (p=0.05 for interaction). Twenty-five percent of patients with Grade 2–4 acute in-field radiation dermatitis experienced Grade 2–4 late skin fibrosis vs. 14% of patients with Grade 0–1 acute in-field radiation dermatitis (p=0.002). Conclusion Grade 2–4 cetuximab rash was associated with better survival possibly due to reduction of distant metastasis. This observation was noted mainly in p16 negative patients. Grade 2–4 acute in-field radiation dermatitis was associated with higher rate of late Grade 2–4 skin fibrosis. PMID:27212198

  14. [Rash and fever illness caused by herpes simplex virus type 1 needs to be distinguished from hand, foot and mouth disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shuang-Li; Liu, Jian-Feng; Sun, Qiang; Li, Jing; Li, Xiao-Lei; Zhang, Yong; Chen, Ying; Wen, Xiao-Yun; Yan, Dong-Mei; Huang, Guo-Hong; Zhang, Bao-Min; Zhang, Bo; An, Hong-Qiu; Li, Hui; Xu, Wen-Bo

    2013-06-01

    An epidemic of rash and fever illnesses suspected of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) occurred in Gansu Province of China in 2008, laboratory tests were performed in order to identify the pathogen that caused this epidemic. Eight clinical specimens collected from the 4 patients (each patient has throat swab and herpes fluid specimens) with rash and febrile illness, were inoculated onto RD and HEp-2 cells for virus isolation, and the viral nucleic acid was then extracted with the positive virus isolates, the dual-channel real-time reverse transcript-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect the nucleic acid of human enterovirus (HEV) in the viral isolates at the same time. For the viral isolates with the negative results of HEV, a sequence independent single primer amplification technique (SISPA) was used for "unknown pathogen" identification. Totally, 6 viral isolates were identified as herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1). Comprehensive analyses results of the clinical manifestations of the patients, epidemiological findings and laboratory test indicated that this epidemic of rash and febrile illness was caused by HSV-1. The differences among the gG region of 6 HSV-1 isolates at nucleotide level and amino acid level were all small, and the identities were up to 98. 8% and 97.9%, respectively, showing that this outbreak was caused by only one viral transmission chain of HSV-1. HSV-1 and other viruses that cause rash and febrile illnesses need differential diagnosis with HFMD. The etiology of rash and febrile illness is sometimes difficult to distinguish from the clinical symptoms and epidemiological data, the laboratory diagnosis is therefore critical.

  15. Prognostic implications of active discoid lupus erythematosus and malar rash at the time of diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus: Results from a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drucker, A M; Su, J; Mussani, F; Siddha, S K; Gladman, D D; Urowitz, M B

    2016-04-01

    Cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE) may have prognostic implications for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to determine the impact of discoid lupus erythematosus (DLE) and malar rash on SLE disease activity. Data were analyzed from the Toronto Lupus Clinic prospective cohort study. We compared SLE patients with active DLE or malar rash at SLE diagnosis to SLE patients who never developed CLE. Outcomes were assessed at one and five years, including Adjusted Mean Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 (AMS). A total of 524 SLE patients (284 without CLE, 65 with DLE, and 175 with malar rash) were included. Mean AMS scores in patients without CLE at one and five years were 5.96 ± 5.06 and 4.00 ± 3.52, which did not differ significantly from scores at one (6.93 ± 5.31, p = 0.17) and five years (4.29 ± 2.62, p = 0.63) in the DLE group. In patients with malar rash, AMS scores at one (8.30 ± 6.80, p < 0.001) and five years (5.23 ± 3.06, p = 0.004) were higher than controls without CLE. Malar rash may be a marker of more severe systemic disease over time, while DLE has no significant impact on general SLE disease activity. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Twenty-six-week oral carcinogenicity study of 3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol in CB6F1-rasH2 transgenic mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Byoung-Seok; Park, Sang-Jin; Kim, Yong-Bum; Han, Ji-Seok; Jeong, Eun Ju; Son, Hwa-Young; Moon, Kyoung-Sik

    2017-01-01

    The carcinogenic potential of 3-monochloro-1,2-propanediol (3-MCPD) was evaluated in a short-term carcinogenicity testing study using CB6F1 rasH2-Tg (rasH2-Tg) mice. 3-MCPD is found in many foods and food ingredients as a result of storage or processing and is regarded as a carcinogen since it is known to induce Leydig cell and kidney tumors in rats. Male and female rasH2-Tg mice were administered 3-MCPD once daily by oral gavage at doses of 0, 10, 20, and 40 mg/kg body weight (bw) per day for 26 weeks. As a positive control, N-methyl-N-nitrosourea (MNU) was administered as a single intraperitoneal injection (75 mg/kg). In 3-MCPD-treated mice, there was no increase in the incidence of neoplastic lesions compared to the incidence in vehicle control mice. However, 3-MCPD treatment resulted in an increased incidence of tubular basophilia in the kidneys and germ cell degeneration in the testes, with degenerative germ cell debris in the epididymides of males at 20 and 40 mg/kg bw per day. In 3-MCPD-treated females, vacuolation of the brain and spinal cord was observed at 40 mg/kg bw per day; however, only one incidence of vacuolation was observed in males. Forestomach and cutaneous papilloma and/or carcinoma and lymphoma were observed in most rasH2 mice receiving MNU treatment. We concluded that 3-MCPD did not show carcinogenic potential in the present study using rasH2-Tg mice. The findings of this study suggest that the carcinogenic potential of 3-MCPD is species specific.

  17. Pityriasis Rosea: A rash that should be recognized by the primary care physician. Study of 30 cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor López-Carrera

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Pityriasis rosea is an acute disseminated rash of unknown etiology and prolonged duration, characterized by erythematous- squamous plaques. Despite having an ostentatious clinical picture for both the patient and family, it is self-limited and usually resolves without sequelae. Pityriasis rosea is often erroneously diagnosed as mycosis and given unnecessary treatment. Objective: To describe the clinical and demographical features of pity- riasis rosea in a group of Mexican pediatric patients. Patients and methods: Retrospective and descriptive study in which the clinical and demographic features of patients attended at the department of dermatology of the National Institute of Pediatrics with diagnosis of pityriasis rosea within a ten year period were analysed. Results: Thirty patients with pityriasis rosea, with a frequency of 3.6 per 1000 dermatological patients. Pityriasis rosea was more frequent in females with a ratio of 1.5 to 1 and a mean age of 10 years. More than half of the patients (56% had an atypical presentation, and biopsy was mandatory in 7 patients to establish the final diagnosis. Conclusions: The knowledge of the clinical features of pityriasis rosea by primary care physicians will prevent from unnecessary work-up and treatments.

  18. The intra-oceanic Cretaceous (~ 108 Ma) Kata-Rash arc fragment in the Kurdistan segment of Iraqi Zagros suture zone: Implications for Neotethys evolution and closure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Sarmad A.; Ismail, Sabah A.; Nutman, Allen P.; Bennett, Vickie C.; Jones, Brian G.; Buckman, Solomon

    2016-09-01

    The Kata-Rash arc fragment is an allochthonous thrust-bound body situated near Penjween, 100 km northeast of Sulymannia city, Kurdistan Region, within the Iraqi portion of the Zagros suture zone. It forms part of the suprasubduction zone 'Upper Allochthon' terranes (designated as the Gimo-Qandil Group), which is dominated by calc-alkaline andesite and basaltic-andesite, rhyodacite to rhyolite, crosscut by granitic, granodioritic, and dioritic dykes. Previously, rocks of the Kata-Rash arc fragment were interpreted as a part of the Eocene Walash volcanic group. However, SHRIMP zircon U-Pb dates on them of 108.1 ± 2.9 Ma (Harbar volcanic rocks) and 107.7 ± 1.9 Ma (Aulan intrusion) indicate an Albian-Cenomanian age, which is interpreted as the time of igneous crystallisation. The Aulan intrusion zircons have initial εHf values of + 8.6 ± 0.2. On a Nb/Yb-Th/Yb diagram, all Kata-Rash samples fall within the compositional field of arc-related rocks, i.e. above the mid-ocean-ridge basalt (MORB)-ocean island basalt (OIB) mantle array. Primitive-mantle-normalised trace-element patterns for the Kata-Rash samples show enrichment in the large ion lithophile elements and depletion in the high-field-strength elements supporting their subduction-related character. Low Ba/La coupled with low La/Yb and Hf/Hf* 3000 km continuity of Cretaceous arc activity (Oman to Cyprus), that consumed Neotethyian oceanic crust between Eurasia and the Gondwanan fragment Arabia.

  19. A review of the treatment options for skin rash induced by EGFR-targeted therapies: Evidence from randomized clinical trials and a meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ocvirk, Janja; Heeger, Steffen; McCloud, Philip; Hofheinz, Ralf-Dieter

    2013-01-01

    Agents targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) are amongst the most extensively used of the targeted agents in the therapy of some of the most common solid tumors. Although they avoid many of the classic side effects associated with cytotoxic chemotherapy, they are associated with unpleasant cutaneous toxicities which can affect treatment compliance and impinge on patient quality of life. To date, despite a plethora of consensus recommendations, expert opinions and reviews, there is a paucity of evidence-based guidance for the management of the skin rash that occurs in the treatment of patients receiving EGFR-targeted therapies. A literature search was conducted as a first step towards investigating not only an evidence-based approach to the management of skin rash, but also with a view to designing future randomized trials. The literature search identified seven randomized trials and a meta-analysis was conducted using the data from four of these trials involving oral antibiotics. The meta-analysis of the data from these four trials suggests that prophylactic antibiotics might reduce the relative risk of severe rash associated with EGFR-targeted agents by 42–77%. Vitamin K cream was also identified as having a potential role in the management EGFR-targeted agent induced rash. This review and meta-analysis clearly identify the need for further randomized studies of the role of oral antibiotics in this setting. The results of the ongoing randomized trials of the topical application of vitamin K cream plus or minus doxycycline and employing prophylactic versus reactive strategies are eagerly awaited

  20. First Aid: Rashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Development Infections Diseases & Conditions Pregnancy & Baby Nutrition & Fitness Emotions & Behavior School & Family Life First Aid & Safety Doctors & ... avoid sunburn . If your child tends to get eczema flare-ups, avoid harsh soaps. Reviewed by: Steven ...

  1. Hydralazine-induced anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-positive renal vasculitis presenting with a vasculitic syndrome, acute nephritis and a puzzling skin rash: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keasberry Justin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis has been associated with many drugs and it is a relatively rare side effect of the antihypertensive drug hydralazine. The diagnosis and management of patients who have anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis may be challenging because of its relative infrequency, variability of clinical expression and changing nomenclature. The spectrum of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis is wide and can be fatal. This case documents a 62-year-old woman who presented with hydralazine-induced anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-positive renal vasculitis with a puzzling cutaneous rash. Case presentation We report a rare case of hydralazine-induced anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis in a 62-year-old Caucasian woman who presented with a vasculitic syndrome with a sore throat, mouth ulcers and otalgia after several months of constitutional symptoms. She then proceeded to develop a rash over her right lower limb. Clinically, the rash had features to suggest Sweet’s syndrome, but also had some appearances consistent with embolic phenomena and did not have the appearance of palpable purpure usually associated with cutaneous vasculitis. Differential diagnoses were hydralazine-associated Sweet’s syndrome, streptococcal-induced cutaneous eruption or an unrelated contact dermatitis. A midstream urine sample detected glomerular blood cells in the setting of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-positive renal vasculitis and Streptococcus pyogenes bacteremia. A renal biopsy revealed a pauci-immune, focally necrotizing glomerulonephritis with small crescents. Her skin biopsy revealed a heavy neutrophil infiltrate involving the full thickness of the dermis with no evidence of a leucocytoclastic vasculitis, but was non-specific. She was initially commenced on intravenous lincomycin for her bloodstream infection and subsequently

  2. Ibrutinib-associated skin toxicity: a case of maculopapular rash in a 79-year old Caucasian male patient with relapsed Waldenstrom’s macroglobulinemia and review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Bisgaard Jensen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Waldenstrom's macroglobulinamia (WM is a rare malignant lymphoproliferative disorder, characterized by monoclonal IgM paraproteinemia and neoplastic proliferation of malignant lymphoplasmacytoid cells in the bone marrow. Traditionally, WM has been treated with modalities similar to those used in the management of other indolent lymphomas. Just recently, based on impressive clinical trial results in heavily pretreated WM patients, a new Bruton Tyrosine Kinase-inhibitor, Ibrutinib, has been approved for the treatment of this disorder. As the use of Ibrutinib in WM outside clinical trials is still limited, only few clinical reports illustrating treatment side effects are currently available. Here we review the current literature specific on Ibrutinib-associated rash in hematologic patients, and report on an elderly patient with WM, who developed a red maculopapular non-pruritic rash 12 weeks after starting Ibrutinib therapy. Without modifications of the ongoing Ibrutinib schedule, the rash regressed within two weeks of treatment with topical steroidcontaining dermatological compounds.

  3. Evaluation of Seasonal, ANN, and Hybrid Models in Modeling Urban Water Consumption A Case Study of Rash City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Nematollah Mousavi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting future water consumption in cities to plan for the required capacities in urban water supply systems (including water transmission networks and water treatment facilities depends on the application of behavioral models of uban water consumption. Being located in the North-South corridor, Rasht City is assuming a new role to play in the national economy as a foreign trade center. It will, thus, be necessary to review its present urban infrastructure in order to draft the required infrastructural development plans for meeting the city’s future water demands. The three Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA, Artificial Neural Network (ANN, and SARIMABP approaches were employed in present study to model and forecast Rasht urban water consumption using monthly time series for the period 2001‒2008 of urban water consumption in Rasht. The seasonal unit root test was applied to develop the relevant SARIMA model. Results showed that all the seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots are present in all the frequencies in the monthly time series for Rasht urban water consumption. Using a proper filter, the SAIMA patterns were estimated. In a second stage the SARIMA output was used to determine the ANN output and the hybrid SARIMABP structure was accordingly constructed. The values for Rasht urban water consumption predicted by the three models indicated the superiority of the SARIMABP hybrid model as evidenced by the forecast error index of 0.41% obtained for this model. The other two models of SARIMA and ANN were, however, found to yield acceptable results for urban water managers since the forecasting error recorded for them was below 1%.

  4. Comparative and non-comparative studies of the efficacy and tolerance of tioconazole cream 1% versus another imidazole and/or placebo in neonates and infants with candidal diaper rash and/or impetigo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, D L; Kashin, P; Jevons, S

    1987-01-01

    Eleven open multicentre studies were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of tioconazole cream 1% as a treatment for diaper rash with or without fungal (Candida) involvement, or impetigo in neonates and infants. In the dermal candidiasis/diaper rash group, 320 patients had either tioconazole (n = 220), a comparative imidazole (n = 43), or vehicle cream (n = 57) applied to the affected area twice daily. Twenty-one impetigo patients had only tioconazole cream 1% applied three times daily to lesions. The overall cure rate (patients with both clinical and mycological cure) at the end of treatment for tioconazole treated patients was 78%, for the comparative imidazole group it was 76% and for vehicle cream it was 39%. At the long-term follow-up evaluation approximately 6 weeks after treatment for patients with diaper rash, the overall cure rate was about the same in both tioconazole- and comparative imidazole-treated patients (87% and 90%, respectively), and 14% in patients using vehicle cream. Side-effects were coincident with disease symptoms and consisted primarily of erythema localized to the treatment area; they occurred in 5.4% (13/241) of the patients who received tioconazole and in 21% (9/43) of the patients who received comparative imidazole (econazole or miconazole). No side-effects were reported in this open study for the 57 patients who used vehicle cream. The results of these studies show that tioconazole cream 1% is safe and effective for the treatment of neonates and infants with dermal candidiasis, diaper rash and impetigo.

  5. La Verbena azul en el tratamiento del niño con salpullido The blue Verbena to treat the child with rash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Galiano Piquet

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Introducción: la miliaria es una enfermedad inflamatoria de la piel, usualmente conocida como salpullido, es muy frecuente en niños pequeños sobre todo en los meses de verano. Objetivo: valorar la eficacia de la infusión de Verbena azul en el control de la miliaria común. Métodos: se realizó un ensayo clínico fase II, a partir de la preparación de una infusión de hojas frescas o secas molidas, que se vertieron en 12 litros de agua hirviente, se tapó y se separó del fuego después de añadirle la planta, se dejó reposar y se coló. Fue aplicada tibia en todo el cuerpo durante 21 días, en dos secciones, al levantarse, y en la tarde luego del baño diario. El estudio se realizó en 30 lactantes de raza blanca, que acudieron con esta patología a la consulta de Medicina Natural y Tradicional, en el consultorio 6 del poblado de Altagracia, en el periodo entre junio del 2004 y junio del 2005, los cuales pertenecían al Policlínico Comunitario Docente "Carlos J. Finlay" de la Ciudad de Camagüey. Los datos se recogieron mediante una encuesta, confeccionada de acuerdo con los objetivos planteados en la investigación. Resultados: el grupo más afectado fue el de 3 a 6 meses, todos los pacientes fueron blancos, no se encontraron diferencias significativas en cuanto al sexo. La variedad clínica más frecuente fue la cristalina, y los meses en que más se presentó fueron entre junio y agosto. Conclusiones: este tratamiento presentó una alta eficacia en el control de la sintomatología de la miliaria común; se curaron 9 de cada 10 pacientes.Introduction: miliaria is an skin inflammatory disease known as rash and is very frequent in small children mainly during summer months. Objective: assessing the efficacy of the infusion of blue Verbena in controlling common heat rash. Methods: a phase II clinical trial was conducted from the preparation of an infusion of fresh leaves or dry grinded poured out in 12 liters of boiling water, was covered

  6. Rash - child under 2 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to air dry as long as is practical. Launder cloth diapers in mild soap and rinse well. ... J. Dermatology. In: Engorn B, Flerlage J, eds. Johns Hopkins: The Harriet Lane Handbook . 20th ed. Philadelphia, ...

  7. Diaper Rash: How to Treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Registration General information Housing & travel Education Exhibit hall Mobile app 2019 Annual Meeting Derm Exam Prep Course ... SkinPAC State societies Scope of practice Truth in advertising NP/PA laws Action center Public and patients ...

  8. Available studies fail to provide strong evidence of increased risk of diarrhea mortality due to measles in the period 4-26 weeks after measles rash onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Bianca D; Black, Robert E

    2017-11-07

    Measles vaccination effectiveness studies showed dramatic decreases in all-cause mortality in excess of what would be expected from the prevention of measles disease alone. This invited speculation that measles infection may increase the risk of diarrhea morbidity and mortality subsequent to the acute phase of the disease. The aim of the present systematic review is to summarize the existing evidence in the publically available literature pertaining to the putative causal link between measles and diarrhea in the period 4-26 weeks following measles rash onset. We searched the PubMed, Embase, Open Grey and Grey Literature Report databases for relevant literature using broad search terms. Prospective, retrospective and case-control studies in low- and middle-income countries involving children under five wherein relevant evidence were presented were included. Data were extracted from the articles and summarized. Fifty abstracts retrieved through the database searches met the initial screening criteria. Twelve additional documents were identified by review of the references of the documents found in the initial searches. Six documents representing five unique studies that presented evidence relevant to the research question were found. Four of the included studies took place in Bangladesh. One of the included studies took place in Sudan. Some measles vaccine effectiveness studies show lower diarrhea morbidity and mortality among the vaccinated. However, children who received vaccine may have differed in important ways from children who did not, such as health service utilization. Additionally, cohort studies following unvaccinated children showed no difference in diarrhea morbidity and mortality between cases and controls more than 4 weeks after measles rash onset. One study showed some evidence that severe measles may predispose children to gastroenteritis, but was not able to show a corresponding increase in the risk of diarrhea mortality. The available evidence

  9. Preventive effect of kampo medicine (hangeshashin-to, TJ-14 plus minocycline against afatinib-induced diarrhea and skin rash in patients with non-small cell lung cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ichiki M

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Masao Ichiki,1 Hiroshi Wataya,2 Kazuhiko Yamada,3 Nobuko Tsuruta,4 Hiroaki Takeoka,1 Yusuke Okayama,1 Jun Sasaki,1 Tomoaki Hoshino3 1Department of Respiratory Medicine, Clinical Research Institute, National Hospital Organization, Kyushu Medical Center, 2Division of Internal Medicine, Saiseikai Fukuoka General Hospital, Fukuoka City, 3Division of Respirology, Neurology, and Rheumatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kurume University, Kurume City, 4Department of Respiratory Medicine, Hamanomachi Hospital, Fukuoka City, Fukuoka, Japan Purpose: Diarrhea and oral mucositis induced by afatinib can cause devastating quality of life issues for patients undergoing afatinib treatment. Several studies have shown that hangeshashin-to (TJ-14 might be useful for chemotherapy-induced diarrhea and oral mucositis. In this study, we investigated the prophylactic effects of TJ-14 for afatinib-induced diarrhea and oral mucositis and minocycline for afatinib-induced skin rash.Patients and methods: First- and second-generation epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors have become the standard first-line treatment in patients with EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer. The incidence of diarrhea was higher with afatinib than with gefitinib, and we conducted a single-arm Phase II study with afatinib. Patients who had previously undergone treatment with afatinib were ineligible. Both TJ-14 (7.5 g/day and minocycline (100 mg/day were administered simultaneously from the start of afatinib administration. The primary end point was the incidence of ≥ grade 3 (G3 diarrhea (increase of ≥7 stools/day over baseline during the first 4 weeks of treatment. The secondary end points were the incidence of ≥ G3 oral mucositis (severe pain interfering with oral intake and ≥ G3 skin toxicity (severe or medically significant but not immediately life-threatening.Results: A total of 29 patients (nine men and 20 women; median age, 66

  10. A 28-day oral gavage toxicity study of 3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol (3-MCPD) in CB6F1-non-Tg rasH2 mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Byoung-Seok; Park, Sang-Jin; Kim, Yong-Bum; Han, Ji-Seok; Jeong, Eun-Ju; Moon, Kyoung-Sik; Son, Hwa-Young

    2015-12-01

    3-Monochloro-1,2-propanediol (3-MCPD) is a well-known contaminant of foods containing hydrolyzed vegetable protein. However, limited toxicity data are available for the risk assessment of 3-MCPD and its carcinogenic potential is controversial. To evaluate the potential toxicity and determine the dose levels for a 26-week carcinogenicity test using Tg rasH2 mice, 3-MCPD was administered once daily by oral gavage at doses of 0, 25, 50, and 100 mg/kg body weight (b.w.)/day for 28 days to male and female CB6F1-non-Tg rasH2 mice (N = 5 males and females per dose). The standard toxicological evaluations were conducted during the in-life and post-mortem phase. In the 100 mg/kg b.w./day group, 3 males and 1 female died during the study and showed clinical signs such as thin appearance and subdued behavior accompanied by significant decreases in mean b.w. Microscopy revealed tubular basophilia in the kidneys, exfoliated degenerative germ cells in the lumen of the seminiferous tubule of the testes, vacuolation in the brain, axonal degeneration of the sciatic nerve, and cardiomyopathy in the 100, ≥25, ≥50, 100, and 100 mg/kg b.w./day groups, respectively. In conclusion, 3-MCPD's target organs were the kidneys, testes, brain, sciatic nerve, and heart. The "no-observed-adverse-effect level" (NOAEL) of 3-MCPD was ≤25 and 25 mg/kg b.w./day in males and females, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Rash after measles vaccination: laboratory analysis of cases reported in São Paulo, Brazil Exantema após vacinação do sarampo: análise laboratorial de casos notificados em São Paulo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria I Oliveira

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The clinical differential diagnosis of rash due to viral infections is often difficult, and misdiagnosis is not rare, especially after the introduction of measles and rubella vaccination. A study to determine the etiological diagnosis of exanthema was carried out in a group of children after measles vaccination. METHODS: Sera collected from children with rash who received measles vaccine were reported in 1999. They were analyzed for IgM antibodies against measles virus, rubella virus, human parvovirus B19 (HPV B19 using ELISA commercial techniques, and human herpes virus 6 (HHV 6 using immunofluorescence commercial technique. Viremia for each of those viruses was tested using a polimerase chain reaction (PCR. RESULTS: A total of 17 cases of children with exanthema after measles immunization were reported in 1999. The children, aged 9 to 12 months (median 10 months, had a blood sample taken for laboratory analysis. The time between vaccination and the first rash signs varied from 1 to 60 days. The serological results of those 17 children suspected of measles or rubella infection showed the following etiological diagnosis: 17.6% (3 in 17 HPV B19 infection; 76.5% (13 in 17 HHV 6 infection; 5.9% (1 in 17 rash due to measles vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: The study data indicate that infection due to HPV B19 or HHV 6 can be misdiagnosed as exanthema due to measles vaccination. Therefore, it is important to better characterize the etiology of rash in order to avoid attributing it incorrectly to measles vaccine.OBJETIVO: O diagnóstico diferencial de doenças exantemáticas causadas por vírus é geralmente difícil, e equívocos não são raros, especialmente depois da introdução da vacina contra o sarampo e a rubéola. Um estudo laboratorial foi conduzido com o objetivo de estabelecer o diagnóstico etiológico de casos de exantema em crianças que receberam a vacina contra o sarampo. MÉTODOS: Soros de casos de exantema em crianças que

  12. WALS Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magnus, J.R.; Wang, W.; Zhang, Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty

  13. A Life Threatening Rash, an Unexpected Cause

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhiraj Jain

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe a 74-year-old man with purpura fulminans and altered sensorium following an acute febrile illness. Intensive sepsis management was to no avail, until institution of doxycycline therapy following confirmation of scrub typhus. Empirical doxycycline needs to be considered in endemic areas for patients presenting with purpura fulminans.

  14. Skin Rashes Due to Bed-Wetting

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cares Peers Support Ask the Doctor My Food Coach Nutrition Dialysis Patient & Family Resources Emergency Resources A ... State Charity Registration Disclosures © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc., 30 East 33rd Street, New York, NY 10016, ...

  15. Hot Tub Rash (Pseudomonas Dermatitis/Folliculitis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Swimmers Make a Healthy Splash! Mobile Apps Podcasts Posters Social Media Library Stories Videos/TV Partner Materials ... site? Adobe PDF file Microsoft PowerPoint file Microsoft Word file Microsoft Excel file Audio/Video file Apple ...

  16. "Hot Tub Rash" and "Swimmer's Ear" (Pseudomonas)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Facts About “Hot Tub Rash” and “Swimmer’s Ear” (Pseudomonas) What is Pseudomonas and how can it affect me? Pseudomonas (sue-doh- ... a major cause of infections commonly known as “hot tub rash” and “swimmer’s ear.” This germ is ...

  17. The sweet Christmas rash (case series)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gyldenløve, Mette; Nepper-Christensen, Steen; Thyssen, Jacob P

    2013-01-01

    Christmas tree hypersensitivity is a rare condition, which has so far obtained scarce attention in the medical literature. We present two clinical cases of hypersensitivity associated with Christmas tree exposure, a 51-year-old woman with allergic contact dermatitis and a 41-year-old man...... with allergic rhinitis. The female patient had a positive patch test reaction to colophony, and the male patient had a positive skin prick test reaction to alternaria mould. Both were successfully advised to avoid prolonged exposure to Christmas trees and buy artificial trees for Christmas....

  18. Photos of Slapped-Cheek Rash

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Form Controls Cancel Submit Search The CDC Parvovirus B19 and Fifth Disease Note: Javascript is disabled or ... this page: About CDC.gov . Parvovirus Home About Parvovirus B19 Fifth Disease Pregnancy and Fifth Disease Photos of ...

  19. Plasma alpha-1-acid glycoprotein as a potential predictive biomarker for non-haematological adverse events of docetaxel in breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabir, Rafid Salim; Ho, Gwo Fuang; Annuar, Muhammad Azrif Bin Ahmad; Stanslas, Johnson

    2018-03-01

    Rash and oral mucositis are major non-haematological adverse events (AEs) of docetaxel, in addition to fatigue, nausea, vomiting and diarrhoea, which restrict the use of the drug in cancer therapy. Alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AAG) is an acute phase reactant glycoprotein and is a primary carrier of docetaxel in the blood. Docetaxel has extensive binding (>98%) to plasma proteins such as AAG, lipoproteins and albumin. To study the association between plasma AAG level and non-haematological AEs of docetaxel in Malaysian breast cancer patients of three major ethnic groups (Malays, Chinese and Indians). One hundred and twenty Malaysian breast cancer patients receiving docetaxel as single agent chemotherapy were investigated for AAG plasma level using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique. Toxicity assessment was determined using Common Terminology Criteria of Adverse Events v4.0. The association between AAG and toxicity were then established. There was interethnic variation of plasma AAG level; it was 182 ± 85 mg/dl in Chinese, 237 ± 94 mg/dl in Malays and 240 ± 83 mg/dl in Indians. It was found that low plasma levels of AAG were significantly associated with oral mucositis and rash. This study proposes plasma AAG as a potential predictive biomarker of docetaxel non-haematological AEs namely oral mucositis and rash.

  20. Climate prediction and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  1. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  2. Predictive medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; ten Have, Henk

    2015-01-01

    In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health

  3. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...... provides a comprehensive review and classification of the literature related to the topic of Prediction Markets. Overall, 316 relevant articles, published in the timeframe from 2007 through 2013, were identified and assigned to a herein presented classification scheme, differentiating between descriptive...... works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results...

  4. Predicting unpredictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.

    2018-04-01

    Analysts and markets have struggled to predict a number of phenomena, such as the rise of natural gas, in US energy markets over the past decade or so. Research shows the challenge may grow because the industry — and consequently the market — is becoming increasingly volatile.

  5. Are predictions of cancer response to targeted drugs, based on effects in unrelated tissues, the 'Black Swan' events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbel, Beatrica; Golem, Ante Zvonimir; Kurbel, Sven

    2015-01-01

    Adverse effects of targeted drugs on normal tissues can predict the cancer response. Rash correlates with efficacy of erlotinib, cetuximab and gefitinib and onset of arterial hypertension with response to bevacizumab, sunitinib, axitinib and sorafenib, possible examples of 'Black Swan' events, unexpected scientific observations, as described by Karl Popper in 1935. The proposition is that our patients have individual intrinsic variants of cell growth control, important for tumor response and adverse effects on tumor-unrelated tissue. This means that the lack of predictive side effects in healthy tissue is linked with poor results of tumor therapy when tumor resistance is caused by mechanisms that protect all cells of that patient from the targeted drug effects.

  6. Unification predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghilencea, D.; Ross, G.G.; Lanzagorta, M.

    1997-07-01

    The unification of gauge couplings suggests that there is an underlying (supersymmetric) unification of the strong, electromagnetic and weak interactions. The prediction of the unification scale may be the first quantitative indication that this unification may extend to unification with gravity. We make a precise determination of these predictions for a class of models which extend the multiplet structure of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model to include the heavy states expected in many Grand Unified and/or superstring theories. We show that there is a strong cancellation between the 2-loop and threshold effects. As a result the net effect is smaller than previously thought, giving a small increase in both the unification scale and the value of the strong coupling at low energies. (author). 15 refs, 5 figs

  7. Predictive modelling of Ross River virus notifications in southeastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutcher, Z; Williamson, E; Lynch, S E; Rowe, S; Clothier, H J; Firestone, S M

    2017-02-01

    Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne virus endemic to Australia. The disease, marked by arthritis, myalgia and rash, has a complex epidemiology involving several mosquito species and wildlife reservoirs. Outbreak years coincide with climatic conditions conducive to mosquito population growth. We developed regression models for human RRV notifications in the Mildura Local Government Area, Victoria, Australia with the objective of increasing understanding of the relationships in this complex system, providing trigger points for intervention and developing a forecast model. Surveillance, climatic, environmental and entomological data for the period July 2000-June 2011 were used for model training then forecasts were validated for July 2011-June 2015. Rainfall and vapour pressure were the key factors for forecasting RRV notifications. Validation of models showed they predicted RRV counts with an accuracy of 81%. Two major RRV mosquito vectors (Culex annulirostris and Aedes camptorhynchus) were important in the final estimation model at proximal lags. The findings of this analysis advance understanding of the drivers of RRV in temperate climatic zones and the models will inform public health agencies of periods of increased risk.

  8. Measured and Predicted Variations in Fast Neutron Spectrum in Massive Shields of Water and Concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aalto, E; Sandlin, R; Fraeki, R

    1965-09-15

    The absolute magnitude, and the variations in form, of the fast neutron spectrum during deep penetration (0.8 - 1.1 metre) in massive shields of water, ordinary and magnetite concrete have been studied by using threshold detectors (In (n, h'), S(n,p), Al(n, {alpha})). The results have been compared with predictions by two rigorous (NIOBE, Moments method) and two non-rigorous (multigroup removal-diffusion) shielding codes (NRN, RASH D). The absolute results predicted were in general within 50% of the measured ones, i. e. showed as good or better accuracy than thermal and epithermal flux predictions in the same small-reactor configurations. No difference in accuracy was found between the rigorous and non-rigorous methods. The changes in the relative form of the spectrum (indicated by variations in the (Al/S) and (In/S) reaction rate ratios and amounting to factors up to 3 - 4 during a one metre penetration in water) were rather accurately (within 10 - 30%) predicted by all of the methods. The photonuclear excitation of the 335 keV level used for detecting the In(n, n') reaction was found to distort completely the In results in water at penetrations > 50 cm.

  9. Predictable Medea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Bertolino

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available By focusing on the tragedy of the 'unpredictable' infanticide perpetrated by Medea, the paper speculates on the possibility of a non-violent ontological subjectivity for women victims of gendered violence and whether it is possible to respond to violent actions in non-violent ways; it argues that Medea did not act in an unpredictable way, rather through the very predictable subject of resentment and violence. 'Medea' represents the story of all of us who require justice as retribution against any wrong. The presupposition is that the empowered female subjectivity of women’s rights contains the same desire of mastering others of the masculine current legal and philosophical subject. The subject of women’s rights is grounded on the emotions of resentment and retribution and refuses the categories of the private by appropriating those of the righteous, masculine and public subject. The essay opposes the essentialised stereotypes of the feminine and the maternal with an ontological approach of people as singular, corporeal, vulnerable and dependent. There is therefore an emphasis on the excluded categories of the private. Forgiveness is taken into account as a category of the private and a possibility of responding to violence with newness. A violent act is seen in relations to the community of human beings rather than through an isolated setting as in the case of the individual of human rights. In this context, forgiveness allows to risk again and being with. The result is also a rethinking of feminist actions, feminine subjectivity and of the maternal. Overall the paper opens up the Arendtian category of action and forgiveness and the Cavarerian unique and corporeal ontology of the selfhood beyond gendered stereotypes.

  10. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  11. Antipsychotic-associated psoriatic rash - a case report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bujor, Camelia-Eugenia; Vang, Torkel; Nielsen, Jimmi

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Antipsychotics are a heterogeneous group of drugs. Although, antipsychotics have been used for years, unexpected side effects may still occur. With this case report we focus on a possible association between psoriasis and antipsychotics. Data on the patient's course of psychiatric...... disease, onset of psoriasis and its evolution were extracted from the patient's medical files. CASE PRESENTATION: We present a case of a 21-year-old female diagnosed with schizophrenia. She was initially treated with quetiapine, and later switched to aripiprazole due to weight gain. After initiation...

  12. Drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms without skin rash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasidharanpillai, Sarita; Binitha, Manikoth P; Manikath, Neeraj; Janardhanan, Anisha K

    2015-01-01

    Drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) or drug hypersensitivity syndrome is considered as a severe cutaneous adverse drug reaction which is most commonly precipitated by aromatic anticonvulsants, lamotrigine, dapsone, allopurinol, minocycline, and salazopyrin. Its clinical manifestations are often variable. On rare occasions, it can present with only systemic involvement without any cutaneous features. A complete drug history is of paramount importance in making an early diagnosis. We report the case of a male patient who presented with fever, lymphadenopathy, hepatosplenomegaly, and hepatitis, 2 weeks after starting salazopyrin. The presence of atypical lymphocytes in the peripheral smear was indicative of a viral infection or a hematological dyscrasia. Bone marrow examination revealed a normocellular marrow with an increase in eosinophil precursors. Investigations for the common causes for fever and hepatitis were negative. The presence of eosinophilia, the temporal relationship of the symptoms with the initiation of treatment with salazopyrin, and the marked improvement on withdrawal of the drug along with the administration of systemic corticosteroids, were features consistent with the diagnosis of DRESS. With the incidence of this condition showing a rising trend, it is important for the clinician to be aware of its variable manifestations, as a delay in diagnosis and treatment can be fatal.

  13. What Money Can't Buy: Different Patterns in Decision Making About Sex and Money Predict Past Sexual Coercion Perpetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrier Emond, Fannie; Gagnon, Jean; Nolet, Kevin; Cyr, Gaëlle; Rouleau, Joanne-Lucine

    2018-02-01

    Self-reported impulsivity has been found to predict the perpetration of sexual coercion in both sexual offenders and male college students. Impulsivity can be conceptualized as a generalized lack of self-control (i.e., general perspective) or as a multifaceted construct that can vary from one context to the other (i.e., domain-specific perspective). Delay discounting, the tendency to prefer sooner smaller rewards over larger delayed rewards, is a measure of impulsive decision making. Recent sexual adaptations of delay discounting tasks can be used to test domain-specific assumptions. The present study used the UPPS-P impulsivity questionnaire, a standard money discounting task, and a sexual discounting task to predict past use of sexual coercion in a sample of 98 male college students. Results indicated that higher negative urgency scores, less impulsive money discounting, and more impulsive sexual discounting all predicted sexual coercion. Consistent with previous studies, sexuality was discounted more steeply than money by both perpetrators and non-perpetrators of sexual coercion, but this difference was twice as large in perpetrators compared to non-perpetrators. Our study identified three different predictors of sexual coercion in male college students: a broad tendency to act rashly under negative emotions, a specific difficulty to postpone sexual gratification, and a pattern of optimal non-sexual decision making. Results highlight the importance of using multiple measures, including sexuality-specific measures, to get a clear portrait of the links between impulsivity and sexual coercion.

  14. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  15. Predicting outdoor sound

    CERN Document Server

    Attenborough, Keith; Horoshenkov, Kirill

    2014-01-01

    1. Introduction  2. The Propagation of Sound Near Ground Surfaces in a Homogeneous Medium  3. Predicting the Acoustical Properties of Outdoor Ground Surfaces  4. Measurements of the Acoustical Properties of Ground Surfaces and Comparisons with Models  5. Predicting Effects of Source Characteristics on Outdoor Sound  6. Predictions, Approximations and Empirical Results for Ground Effect Excluding Meteorological Effects  7. Influence of Source Motion on Ground Effect and Diffraction  8. Predicting Effects of Mixed Impedance Ground  9. Predicting the Performance of Outdoor Noise Barriers  10. Predicting Effects of Vegetation, Trees and Turbulence  11. Analytical Approximations including Ground Effect, Refraction and Turbulence  12. Prediction Schemes  13. Predicting Sound in an Urban Environment.

  16. Emotionally laden impulsivity interacts with affect in predicting addictive use of online sexual activity in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wéry, Aline; Deleuze, Jory; Canale, Natale; Billieux, Joël

    2018-01-01

    The interest in studying addictive use of online sexual activities (OSA) has grown sharply over the last decade. Despite the burgeoning number of studies conceptualizing the excessive use of OSA as an addictive disorder, few have tested its relations to impulsivity, which is known to constitute a hallmark of addictive behaviors. To address this missing gap in the literature, we tested the relationships between addictive OSA use, impulsivity traits, and affect among a convenience sample of men (N=182; age, M=29.17, SD = 9.34), building upon a theoretically driven model that distinguishes the various facets of impulsivity. Results showed that negative urgency (an impulsivity trait reflecting the tendency to act rashly in negative emotional states) and negative affect interact in predicting addictive OSA use. These results highlight the pivotal role played by negative urgency and negative affect in addictive OSA use, supporting the relevance of psychological interventions that focus on improving emotional regulation (e.g., to reduce negative affect and learn healthier coping strategies) to mitigate excessive use of OSA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Applied predictive control

    CERN Document Server

    Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

    2002-01-01

    The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

  18. Predictable or not predictable? The MOV question

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thibault, C.L.; Matzkiw, J.N.; Anderson, J.W.; Kessler, D.W.

    1994-01-01

    Over the past 8 years, the nuclear industry has struggled to understand the dynamic phenomena experienced during motor-operated valve (MOV) operation under differing flow conditions. For some valves and designs, their operational functionality has been found to be predictable; for others, unpredictable. Although much has been accomplished over this period of time, especially on modeling valve dynamics, the unpredictability of many valves and designs still exists. A few valve manufacturers are focusing on improving design and fabrication techniques to enhance product reliability and predictability. However, this approach does not address these issues for installed and inpredictable valves. This paper presents some of the more promising techniques that Wyle Laboratories has explored with potential for transforming unpredictable valves to predictable valves and for retrofitting installed MOVs. These techniques include optimized valve tolerancing, surrogated material evaluation, and enhanced surface treatments

  19. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  20. Seismology for rockburst prediction.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Beer, W

    2000-02-01

    Full Text Available project GAP409 presents a method (SOOTHSAY) for predicting larger mining induced seismic events in gold mines, as well as a pattern recognition algorithm (INDICATOR) for characterising the seismic response of rock to mining and inferring future... State. Defining the time series of a specific function on a catalogue as a prediction strategy, the algorithm currently has a success rate of 53% and 65%, respectively, of large events claimed as being predicted in these two cases, with uncertainties...

  1. Predictability of Conversation Partners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaguchi, Taro; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

    2011-08-01

    Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song , ScienceSCIEAS0036-8075 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

  2. Predictability of Conversation Partners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taro Takaguchi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song et al., Science 327, 1018 (2010SCIEAS0036-8075] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

  3. Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoeberl, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst......-case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

  4. Predicting scholars' scientific impact.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mazloumian

    Full Text Available We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of ~150,000 scientists. Our results show that i among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately (r(2 = 0.80 for a 1-year prediction, P<0.001 but iii future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

  5. The Prediction Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, M.; Kurz, S.; Lindner, I.; Napel, S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations

  6. Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Sekreter

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

  7. Predicting AD conversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yawu; Mattila, Jussi; Ruiz, Miguel �ngel Mu�oz

    2013-01-01

    To compare the accuracies of predicting AD conversion by using a decision support system (PredictAD tool) and current research criteria of prodromal AD as identified by combinations of episodic memory impairment of hippocampal type and visual assessment of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) on MRI...

  8. Predicting Free Recalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laming, Donald

    2006-01-01

    This article reports some calculations on free-recall data from B. Murdock and J. Metcalfe (1978), with vocal rehearsal during the presentation of a list. Given the sequence of vocalizations, with the stimuli inserted in their proper places, it is possible to predict the subsequent sequence of recalls--the predictions taking the form of a…

  9. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  10. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  11. Ground motion predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loux, P C [Environmental Research Corporation, Alexandria, VA (United States)

    1969-07-01

    Nuclear generated ground motion is defined and then related to the physical parameters that cause it. Techniques employed for prediction of ground motion peak amplitude, frequency spectra and response spectra are explored, with initial emphasis on the analysis of data collected at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). NTS postshot measurements are compared with pre-shot predictions. Applicability of these techniques to new areas, for example, Plowshare sites, must be questioned. Fortunately, the Atomic Energy Commission is sponsoring complementary studies to improve prediction capabilities primarily in new locations outside the NTS region. Some of these are discussed in the light of anomalous seismic behavior, and comparisons are given showing theoretical versus experimental results. In conclusion, current ground motion prediction techniques are applied to events off the NTS. Predictions are compared with measurements for the event Faultless and for the Plowshare events, Gasbuggy, Cabriolet, and Buggy I. (author)

  12. Ground motion predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loux, P.C.

    1969-01-01

    Nuclear generated ground motion is defined and then related to the physical parameters that cause it. Techniques employed for prediction of ground motion peak amplitude, frequency spectra and response spectra are explored, with initial emphasis on the analysis of data collected at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). NTS postshot measurements are compared with pre-shot predictions. Applicability of these techniques to new areas, for example, Plowshare sites, must be questioned. Fortunately, the Atomic Energy Commission is sponsoring complementary studies to improve prediction capabilities primarily in new locations outside the NTS region. Some of these are discussed in the light of anomalous seismic behavior, and comparisons are given showing theoretical versus experimental results. In conclusion, current ground motion prediction techniques are applied to events off the NTS. Predictions are compared with measurements for the event Faultless and for the Plowshare events, Gasbuggy, Cabriolet, and Buggy I. (author)

  13. Structural prediction in aphasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tessa Warren

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable evidence that young healthy comprehenders predict the structure of upcoming material, and that their processing is facilitated when they encounter material matching those predictions (e.g., Staub & Clifton, 2006; Yoshida, Dickey & Sturt, 2013. However, less is known about structural prediction in aphasia. There is evidence that lexical prediction may be spared in aphasia (Dickey et al., 2014; Love & Webb, 1977; cf. Mack et al, 2013. However, predictive mechanisms supporting facilitated lexical access may not necessarily support structural facilitation. Given that many people with aphasia (PWA exhibit syntactic deficits (e.g. Goodglass, 1993, PWA with such impairments may not engage in structural prediction. However, recent evidence suggests that some PWA may indeed predict upcoming structure (Hanne, Burchert, De Bleser, & Vashishth, 2015. Hanne et al. tracked the eyes of PWA (n=8 with sentence-comprehension deficits while they listened to reversible subject-verb-object (SVO and object-verb-subject (OVS sentences in German, in a sentence-picture matching task. Hanne et al. manipulated case and number marking to disambiguate the sentences’ structure. Gazes to an OVS or SVO picture during the unfolding of a sentence were assumed to indicate prediction of the structure congruent with that picture. According to this measure, the PWA’s structural prediction was impaired compared to controls, but they did successfully predict upcoming structure when morphosyntactic cues were strong and unambiguous. Hanne et al.’s visual-world evidence is suggestive, but their forced-choice sentence-picture matching task places tight constraints on possible structural predictions. Clearer evidence of structural prediction would come from paradigms where the content of upcoming material is not as constrained. The current study used self-paced reading study to examine structural prediction among PWA in less constrained contexts. PWA (n=17 who

  14. Prediction of bull fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utt, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Prediction of male fertility is an often sought-after endeavor for many species of domestic animals. This review will primarily focus on providing some examples of dependent and independent variables to stimulate thought about the approach and methodology of identifying the most appropriate of those variables to predict bull (bovine) fertility. Although the list of variables will continue to grow with advancements in science, the principles behind making predictions will likely not change significantly. The basic principle of prediction requires identifying a dependent variable that is an estimate of fertility and an independent variable or variables that may be useful in predicting the fertility estimate. Fertility estimates vary in which parts of the process leading to conception that they infer about and the amount of variation that influences the estimate and the uncertainty thereof. The list of potential independent variables can be divided into competence of sperm based on their performance in bioassays or direct measurement of sperm attributes. A good prediction will use a sample population of bulls that is representative of the population to which an inference will be made. Both dependent and independent variables should have a dynamic range in their values. Careful selection of independent variables includes reasonable measurement repeatability and minimal correlation among variables. Proper estimation and having an appreciation of the degree of uncertainty of dependent and independent variables are crucial for using predictions to make decisions regarding bull fertility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  16. Prediction ranges. Annual review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parker, J.C.; Tharp, W.H.; Spiro, P.S.; Keng, K.; Angastiniotis, M.; Hachey, L.T.

    1988-01-01

    Prediction ranges equip the planner with one more tool for improved assessment of the outcome of a course of action. One of their major uses is in financial evaluations, where corporate policy requires the performance of uncertainty analysis for large projects. This report gives an overview of the uses of prediction ranges, with examples; and risks and uncertainties in growth, inflation, and interest and exchange rates. Prediction ranges and standard deviations of 80% and 50% probability are given for various economic indicators in Ontario, Canada, and the USA, as well as for foreign exchange rates and Ontario Hydro interest rates. An explanatory note on probability is also included. 23 tabs.

  17. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  18. Protein Sorting Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    and drawbacks of each of these approaches is described through many examples of methods that predict secretion, integration into membranes, or subcellular locations in general. The aim of this chapter is to provide a user-level introduction to the field with a minimum of computational theory.......Many computational methods are available for predicting protein sorting in bacteria. When comparing them, it is important to know that they can be grouped into three fundamentally different approaches: signal-based, global-property-based and homology-based prediction. In this chapter, the strengths...

  19. 'Red Flag' Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    -generation prediction markets and outline its unique features as a third-generation prediction market. It is argued that frontline employees gain deep insights when they execute operational activities on an ongoing basis in the organization. The experiential learning from close interaction with internal and external......This conceptual article introduces a new way to predict firm performance based on aggregation of sensing among frontline employees about changes in operational capabilities to update strategic action plans and generate innovations. We frame the approach in the context of first- and second...

  20. Towards Predictive Association Theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Tsivintzelis, Ioannis; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    2011-01-01

    Association equations of state like SAFT, CPA and NRHB have been previously applied to many complex mixtures. In this work we focus on two of these models, the CPA and the NRHB equations of state and the emphasis is on the analysis of their predictive capabilities for a wide range of applications....... We use the term predictive in two situations: (i) with no use of binary interaction parameters, and (ii) multicomponent calculations using binary interaction parameters based solely on binary data. It is shown that the CPA equation of state can satisfactorily predict CO2–water–glycols–alkanes VLE...

  1. Prediction of intermetallic compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkhanov, Gennady S; Kiselyova, N N

    2009-01-01

    The problems of predicting not yet synthesized intermetallic compounds are discussed. It is noted that the use of classical physicochemical analysis in the study of multicomponent metallic systems is faced with the complexity of presenting multidimensional phase diagrams. One way of predicting new intermetallics with specified properties is the use of modern processing technology with application of teaching of image recognition by the computer. The algorithms used most often in these methods are briefly considered and the efficiency of their use for predicting new compounds is demonstrated.

  2. Filtering and prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Fristedt, B; Krylov, N

    2007-01-01

    Filtering and prediction is about observing moving objects when the observations are corrupted by random errors. The main focus is then on filtering out the errors and extracting from the observations the most precise information about the object, which itself may or may not be moving in a somewhat random fashion. Next comes the prediction step where, using information about the past behavior of the object, one tries to predict its future path. The first three chapters of the book deal with discrete probability spaces, random variables, conditioning, Markov chains, and filtering of discrete Markov chains. The next three chapters deal with the more sophisticated notions of conditioning in nondiscrete situations, filtering of continuous-space Markov chains, and of Wiener process. Filtering and prediction of stationary sequences is discussed in the last two chapters. The authors believe that they have succeeded in presenting necessary ideas in an elementary manner without sacrificing the rigor too much. Such rig...

  3. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ predicted ozone. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Gantt, B., G. Sarwar, J. Xing, H. Simon, D. Schwede, B. Hutzell, R. Mathur, and A....

  4. Methane prediction in collieries

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Creedy, DP

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The primary aim of the project was to assess the current status of research on methane emission prediction for collieries in South Africa in comparison with methods used and advances achieved elsewhere in the world....

  5. Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Outreach > Publications > Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Forecast Climate Diagnostics

  6. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — model predicted concentrations. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Muñiz-Unamunzaga, M., R. Borge, G. Sarwar, B. Gantt, D. de la Paz, C....

  7. Comparing Spatial Predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Hering, Amanda S.; Genton, Marc G.

    2011-01-01

    Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis

  8. Genomic prediction using subsampling

    OpenAIRE

    Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2017-01-01

    Background Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the?genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each rou...

  9. Predicting Online Purchasing Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    W.R BUCKINX; D. VAN DEN POEL

    2003-01-01

    This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson’s global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting...

  10. Empirical Flutter Prediction Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-03-05

    been used in this way to discover species or subspecies of animals, and to discover different types of voter or comsumer requiring different persuasions...respect to behavior or performance or response variables. Once this were done, corresponding clusters might be sought among descriptive or predictive or...jump in a response. The first sort of usage does not apply to the flutter prediction problem. Here the types of behavior are the different kinds of

  11. Stuck pipe prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alzahrani, Majed

    2016-03-10

    Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

  12. Stuck pipe prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alzahrani, Majed; Alsolami, Fawaz; Chikalov, Igor; Algharbi, Salem; Aboudi, Faisal; Khudiri, Musab

    2016-01-01

    Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

  13. Genomic prediction using subsampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2017-03-24

    Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each round of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We evaluated the effect of subsampling bootstrap on prediction and computational parameters. Across datasets, we observed an optimal subsampling proportion of observations around 50% with replacement, and around 33% without replacement. Subsampling provided a substantial decrease in computation time, reducing the time to fit the model by half. On average, losses on predictive properties imposed by subsampling were negligible, usually below 1%. For each dataset, an optimal subsampling point that improves prediction properties was observed, but the improvements were also negligible. Combining subsampling with Gibbs sampling is an interesting ensemble algorithm. The investigation indicates that the subsampling bootstrap Markov chain algorithm substantially reduces computational burden associated with model fitting, and it may slightly enhance prediction properties.

  14. Deep Visual Attention Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing

    2018-05-01

    In this work, we aim to predict human eye fixation with view-free scenes based on an end-to-end deep learning architecture. Although Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have made substantial improvement on human attention prediction, it is still needed to improve CNN based attention models by efficiently leveraging multi-scale features. Our visual attention network is proposed to capture hierarchical saliency information from deep, coarse layers with global saliency information to shallow, fine layers with local saliency response. Our model is based on a skip-layer network structure, which predicts human attention from multiple convolutional layers with various reception fields. Final saliency prediction is achieved via the cooperation of those global and local predictions. Our model is learned in a deep supervision manner, where supervision is directly fed into multi-level layers, instead of previous approaches of providing supervision only at the output layer and propagating this supervision back to earlier layers. Our model thus incorporates multi-level saliency predictions within a single network, which significantly decreases the redundancy of previous approaches of learning multiple network streams with different input scales. Extensive experimental analysis on various challenging benchmark datasets demonstrate our method yields state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference time.

  15. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  16. Transionospheric propagation predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klobucher, J. A.; Basu, S.; Basu, S.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Davies, K.; Donatelli, D. E.; Fremouw, E. J.; Goodman, J. M.; Hartmann, G. K.; Leitinger, R.

    1979-01-01

    The current status and future prospects of the capability to make transionospheric propagation predictions are addressed, highlighting the effects of the ionized media, which dominate for frequencies below 1 to 3 GHz, depending upon the state of the ionosphere and the elevation angle through the Earth-space path. The primary concerns are the predictions of time delay of signal modulation (group path delay) and of radio wave scintillation. Progress in these areas is strongly tied to knowledge of variable structures in the ionosphere ranging from the large scale (thousands of kilometers in horizontal extent) to the fine scale (kilometer size). Ionospheric variability and the relative importance of various mechanisms responsible for the time histories observed in total electron content (TEC), proportional to signal group delay, and in irregularity formation are discussed in terms of capability to make both short and long term predictions. The data base upon which predictions are made is examined for its adequacy, and the prospects for prediction improvements by more theoretical studies as well as by increasing the available statistical data base are examined.

  17. Predictable grammatical constructions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucas, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    My aim in this paper is to provide evidence from diachronic linguistics for the view that some predictable units are entrenched in grammar and consequently in human cognition, in a way that makes them functionally and structurally equal to nonpredictable grammatical units, suggesting that these p......My aim in this paper is to provide evidence from diachronic linguistics for the view that some predictable units are entrenched in grammar and consequently in human cognition, in a way that makes them functionally and structurally equal to nonpredictable grammatical units, suggesting...... that these predictable units should be considered grammatical constructions on a par with the nonpredictable constructions. Frequency has usually been seen as the only possible argument speaking in favor of viewing some formally and semantically fully predictable units as grammatical constructions. However, this paper...... semantically and formally predictable. Despite this difference, [méllo INF], like the other future periphrases, seems to be highly entrenched in the cognition (and grammar) of Early Medieval Greek language users, and consequently a grammatical construction. The syntactic evidence speaking in favor of [méllo...

  18. Investigation of measles IgM-seropositive cases of febrile rash illnesses in the absence of documented measles virus transmission, State of São Paulo, Brazil, 2000-2004 Investigação dos casos de doenças febris exantemáticas com IgM reagente contra o sarampo na ausência de transmissão documentada do vírus do sarampo, Estado de São Paulo, 2000-2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia Helena Ciccone

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To review measles IgM-positive cases of febrile rash illnesses in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, over the five-year period following interruption of measles virus transmission. METHODS: We reviewed 463 measles IgM-positive cases of febrile rash illness in the State of São Paulo, from 2000 to 2004. Individuals vaccinated against measles INTRODUÇÃO: Revisar os casos de doenças febris exantemáticas com IgM reagente contra o sarampo, no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, durante os cinco anos seguidos a interrupção da transmissão do vírus do sarampo. MÉTODOS: Nós revisamos 463 casos de doenças febris exantemáticas com IgM reagente contra o sarampo, no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, de 2000 a 2004. Indivíduos vacinados contra o sarampo 56 dias antes da coleta de amostra foram considerados expostos à vacina. Soros da fase aguda e de convalescença foram testados para a evidência de infecção de sarampo, rubéola, parvovírus B19 e herpes vírus 6. Na ausência de soroconversão para imunoglobulina G contra o sarampo, casos com IgM reagente contra o sarampo foram considerados falsos positivos em pessoas com evidência de outras infecções virais. RESULTADOS: Entre as 463 pessoas com doenças febris exantemáticas que testaram positivo para anticorpos IgM contra o sarampo durante o período, 297 (64% pessoas foram classificadas como expostas à vacina. Entre os 166 casos não expostos à vacina, 109 (66% foram considerados falsos positivos baseado na ausência de soroconversão, dos quais 21 (13% tiveram evidência de infecção por vírus da rubéola, 49 (30% parvovírus B19 e 28 (17% infecção por herpes vírus humano 6. CONCLUSÕES: Após a interrupção da transmissão do vírus do sarampo é necessária exaustiva investigação dos casos com IgM reagente contra o sarampo, especialmente dos casos não expostos à vacina. Testes laboratoriais para etiologias das doenças febris exantemáticas ajudam na interpreta

  19. Essays on Earnings Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mark

    This dissertation addresses the prediction of corporate earnings. The thesis aims to examine whether the degree of precision in earnings forecasts can be increased by basing them on historical financial ratios. Furthermore, the intent of the dissertation is to analyze whether accounting standards...... forecasts are not more accurate than the simpler forecasts based on a historical timeseries of earnings. Secondly, the dissertation shows how accounting standards affect analysts’ earnings predictions. Accounting conservatism contributes to a more volatile earnings process, which lowers the accuracy...... of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the dissertation shows how the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of information about corporate earnings depends on how well corporate earnings can be predicted. The dissertation indicates that the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of earnings...

  20. Pulverized coal devolatilization prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojas, Andres F; Barraza, Juan M

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to predict the two bituminous coals devolatilization at low rate of heating (50 Celsius degrade/min), with program FG-DVC (functional group Depolymerization. Vaporization and crosslinking), and to compare the devolatilization profiles predicted by program FG-DVC, which are obtained in the thermogravimetric analyzer. It was also study the volatile liberation at (10 4 k/s) in a drop-tube furnace. The tar, methane, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide, formation rate profiles, and the hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen and sulphur, elemental distribution in the devolatilization products by FG-DVC program at low rate of heating was obtained; and the liberation volatile and R factor at high rate of heating was calculated. it was found that the program predicts the bituminous coals devolatilization at low rate heating, at high rate heating, a volatile liberation around 30% was obtained

  1. Predicting Ideological Prejudice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Mark J

    2017-06-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants' ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a representative sample of Americans ( N = 4,940) and tested against models using the perceived status of and choice to belong to the target group as predictors. In four studies (total N = 2,093), ideology-prejudice associations were estimated, and these observed estimates were compared with the models' predictions. The model that was based only on perceived ideology was the most parsimonious with the smallest errors.

  2. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  3. Tide Predictions, California, 2014, NOAA

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The predictions from the web based NOAA Tide Predictions are based upon the latest information available as of the date of the user's request. Tide predictions...

  4. Predictive maintenance primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flude, J.W.; Nicholas, J.R.

    1991-04-01

    This Predictive Maintenance Primer provides utility plant personnel with a single-source reference to predictive maintenance analysis methods and technologies used successfully by utilities and other industries. It is intended to be a ready reference to personnel considering starting, expanding or improving a predictive maintenance program. This Primer includes a discussion of various analysis methods and how they overlap and interrelate. Additionally, eighteen predictive maintenance technologies are discussed in sufficient detail for the user to evaluate the potential of each technology for specific applications. This document is designed to allow inclusion of additional technologies in the future. To gather the information necessary to create this initial Primer the Nuclear Maintenance Applications Center (NMAC) collected experience data from eighteen utilities plus other industry and government sources. NMAC also contacted equipment manufacturers for information pertaining to equipment utilization, maintenance, and technical specifications. The Primer includes a discussion of six methods used by analysts to study predictive maintenance data. These are: trend analysis; pattern recognition; correlation; test against limits or ranges; relative comparison data; and statistical process analysis. Following the analysis methods discussions are detailed descriptions for eighteen technologies analysts have found useful for predictive maintenance programs at power plants and other industrial facilities. Each technology subchapter has a description of the operating principles involved in the technology, a listing of plant equipment where the technology can be applied, and a general description of the monitoring equipment. Additionally, these descriptions include a discussion of results obtained from actual equipment users and preferred analysis techniques to be used on data obtained from the technology. 5 refs., 30 figs

  5. Predicting tile drainage discharge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Kjærgaard, Charlotte; Petersen, Rasmus Jes

    used in the analysis. For the dynamic modelling, a simple linear reservoir model was used where different outlets in the model represented tile drain as well as groundwater discharge outputs. This modelling was based on daily measured tile drain discharge values. The statistical predictive model...... was based on a polynomial regression predicting yearly tile drain discharge values using site specific parameters such as soil type, catchment topography, etc. as predictors. Values of calibrated model parameters from the dynamic modelling were compared to the same site specific parameter as used...

  6. Linguistic Structure Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Noah A

    2011-01-01

    A major part of natural language processing now depends on the use of text data to build linguistic analyzers. We consider statistical, computational approaches to modeling linguistic structure. We seek to unify across many approaches and many kinds of linguistic structures. Assuming a basic understanding of natural language processing and/or machine learning, we seek to bridge the gap between the two fields. Approaches to decoding (i.e., carrying out linguistic structure prediction) and supervised and unsupervised learning of models that predict discrete structures as outputs are the focus. W

  7. Predicting Anthracycline Benefit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, John M S; McConkey, Christopher C; Munro, Alison F

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite as measu......PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite...

  8. Prediction of Antibody Epitopes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Marcatili, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Antibodies recognize their cognate antigens in a precise and effective way. In order to do so, they target regions of the antigenic molecules that have specific features such as large exposed areas, presence of charged or polar atoms, specific secondary structure elements, and lack of similarity...... to self-proteins. Given the sequence or the structure of a protein of interest, several methods exploit such features to predict the residues that are more likely to be recognized by an immunoglobulin.Here, we present two methods (BepiPred and DiscoTope) to predict linear and discontinuous antibody...

  9. Basis of predictive mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantigny, Philippe; Guilmart, Audrey; Bensoussan, Maurice

    2005-04-15

    For over 20 years, predictive microbiology focused on food-pathogenic bacteria. Few studies concerned modelling fungal development. On one hand, most of food mycologists are not familiar with modelling techniques; on the other hand, people involved in modelling are developing tools dedicated to bacteria. Therefore, there is a tendency to extend the use of models that were developed for bacteria to moulds. However, some mould specificities should be taken into account. The use of specific models for predicting germination and growth of fungi was advocated previously []. This paper provides a short review of fungal modelling studies.

  10. Dopamine reward prediction error coding

    OpenAIRE

    Schultz, Wolfram

    2016-01-01

    Reward prediction errors consist of the differences between received and predicted rewards. They are crucial for basic forms of learning about rewards and make us strive for more rewards?an evolutionary beneficial trait. Most dopamine neurons in the midbrain of humans, monkeys, and rodents signal a reward prediction error; they are activated by more reward than predicted (positive prediction error), remain at baseline activity for fully predicted rewards, and show depressed activity with less...

  11. Steering smog prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. van Liere (Robert); J.J. van Wijk (Jack)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThe use of computational steering for smog prediction is described. This application is representative for many underlying issues found in steering high performance applications: high computing times, large data sets, and many different input parameters. After a short description of the

  12. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior...

  13. Gate valve performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, D.H.; Damerell, P.S.; Wang, J.K.; Kalsi, M.S.; Wolfe, K.J.

    1994-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute is carrying out a program to improve the performance prediction methods for motor-operated valves. As part of this program, an analytical method to predict the stem thrust required to stroke a gate valve has been developed and has been assessed against data from gate valve tests. The method accounts for the loads applied to the disc by fluid flow and for the detailed mechanical interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seats. To support development of the method, two separate-effects test programs were carried out. One test program determined friction coefficients for contacts between gate valve parts by using material specimens in controlled environments. The other test program investigated the interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seat using a special fixture with full-sized gate valve parts. The method has been assessed against flow-loop and in-plant test data. These tests include valve sizes from 3 to 18 in. and cover a considerable range of flow, temperature, and differential pressure. Stem thrust predictions for the method bound measured results. In some cases, the bounding predictions are substantially higher than the stem loads required for valve operation, as a result of the bounding nature of the friction coefficients in the method

  14. Prediction method abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This conference was held December 4--8, 1994 in Asilomar, California. The purpose of this meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information concerning the prediction of protein structure. Attention if focused on the following: comparative modeling; sequence to fold assignment; and ab initio folding.

  15. Predicting Intrinsic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Rob; Kirschner, Paul A.

    2004-01-01

    Intrinsic motivation can be predicted from participants' perceptions of the social environment and the task environment (Ryan & Deci, 2000)in terms of control, relatedness and competence. To determine the degree of independence of these factors 251 students in higher vocational education (physiotherapy and hotel management) indicated the…

  16. Predicting visibility of aircraft.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Watson

    Full Text Available Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO. In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration.

  17. Climate Prediction Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Enter Search Term(s): Search Search the CPC Go NCEP Quarterly Newsletter Climate Highlights U.S Climate-Weather El Niño/La Niña MJO Blocking AAO, AO, NAO, PNA Climatology Global Monsoons Expert

  18. Predicting Commissary Store Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    stores or if it is possible to predict that success. Multiple studies of private commercial grocery consumer preferences , habits and demographics have...appropriate number of competitors due to the nature of international cultures and consumer preferences . 2. Missing Data Four of the remaining stores

  19. Predicting Job Satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blai, Boris, Jr.

    Psychological theories about human motivation and accommodation to environment can be used to achieve a better understanding of the human factors that function in the work environment. Maslow's theory of human motivational behavior provided a theoretical framework for an empirically-derived method to predict job satisfaction and explore the…

  20. Ocean Prediction Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA Weather Analysis & Forecasts of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis

  1. Predicting Reasoning from Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan; Hayes, Brett K.

    2011-01-01

    In an effort to assess the relations between reasoning and memory, in 8 experiments, the authors examined how well responses on an inductive reasoning task are predicted from responses on a recognition memory task for the same picture stimuli. Across several experimental manipulations, such as varying study time, presentation frequency, and the…

  2. Predicting coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sillesen, Henrik; Fuster, Valentin

    2012-01-01

    Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death and disabling disease. Whereas risk factors are well known and constitute therapeutic targets, they are not useful for prediction of risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Therefore, methods to identify atherosclerosis itself have bee...

  3. ANTHROPOMETRIC PREDICTIVE EQUATIONS FOR ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Anthropometry, Predictive Equations, Percentage Body Fat, Nigerian Women, Bioelectric Impedance ... such as Asians and Indians (Pranav et al., 2009), ... size (n) of at least 3o is adjudged as sufficient for the ..... of people, gender and age (Vogel eta/., 1984). .... Fish Sold at Ile-Ife Main Market, South West Nigeria.

  4. Predicting Pilot Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-15

    forever… Gig ‘Em! Dale W. Stanley III vii Table of Contents Page Acknowledgments...over the last 20 years. Airbus predicted that these trends would continue as emerging economies , especially in Asia, were creating a fast growing...US economy , pay differential and hiring by the major airlines contributed most to the decision to separate from the Air Force (Fullerton, 2003: 354

  5. Predicting ideological prejudice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandt, M.J.

    2018-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models

  6. Dopamine reward prediction error coding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Wolfram

    2016-03-01

    Reward prediction errors consist of the differences between received and predicted rewards. They are crucial for basic forms of learning about rewards and make us strive for more rewards-an evolutionary beneficial trait. Most dopamine neurons in the midbrain of humans, monkeys, and rodents signal a reward prediction error; they are activated by more reward than predicted (positive prediction error), remain at baseline activity for fully predicted rewards, and show depressed activity with less reward than predicted (negative prediction error). The dopamine signal increases nonlinearly with reward value and codes formal economic utility. Drugs of addiction generate, hijack, and amplify the dopamine reward signal and induce exaggerated, uncontrolled dopamine effects on neuronal plasticity. The striatum, amygdala, and frontal cortex also show reward prediction error coding, but only in subpopulations of neurons. Thus, the important concept of reward prediction errors is implemented in neuronal hardware.

  7. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  8. Predicting Bankruptcy in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul RASHID

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to identify the financial ratios that are most significant in bankruptcy prediction for the non-financial sector of Pakistan based on a sample of companies which became bankrupt over the time period 1996-2006. Twenty four financial ratios covering four important financial attributes, namely profitability, liquidity, leverage, and turnover ratios, were examined for a five-year period prior bankruptcy. The discriminant analysis produced a parsimonious model of three variables viz. sales to total assets, EBIT to current liabilities, and cash flow ratio. Our estimates provide evidence that the firms having Z-value below zero fall into the “bankrupt” whereas the firms with Z-value above zero fall into the “non-bankrupt” category. The model achieved 76.9% prediction accuracy when it is applied to forecast bankruptcies on the underlying sample.

  9. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular......We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto......, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”....

  10. Comparing Spatial Predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2011-11-01

    Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis is that of no difference, and a spatial loss differential is created based on the observed data, the two sets of predictions, and the loss function chosen by the researcher. The test assumes only isotropy and short-range spatial dependence of the loss differential but does allow it to be non-Gaussian, non-zero-mean, and spatially correlated. Constant and nonconstant spatial trends in the loss differential are treated in two separate cases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the size and power properties of this test, and an example based on daily average wind speeds in Oklahoma is used for illustration. Supplemental results are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Qualitys.

  11. Chaos detection and predictability

    CERN Document Server

    Gottwald, Georg; Laskar, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Distinguishing chaoticity from regularity in deterministic dynamical systems and specifying the subspace of the phase space in which instabilities are expected to occur is of utmost importance in as disparate areas as astronomy, particle physics and climate dynamics.   To address these issues there exists a plethora of methods for chaos detection and predictability. The most commonly employed technique for investigating chaotic dynamics, i.e. the computation of Lyapunov exponents, however, may suffer a number of problems and drawbacks, for example when applied to noisy experimental data.   In the last two decades, several novel methods have been developed for the fast and reliable determination of the regular or chaotic nature of orbits, aimed at overcoming the shortcomings of more traditional techniques. This set of lecture notes and tutorial reviews serves as an introduction to and overview of modern chaos detection and predictability techniques for graduate students and non-specialists.   The book cover...

  12. Time-predictable architectures

    CERN Document Server

    Rochange, Christine; Uhrig , Sascha

    2014-01-01

    Building computers that can be used to design embedded real-time systems is the subject of this title. Real-time embedded software requires increasingly higher performances. The authors therefore consider processors that implement advanced mechanisms such as pipelining, out-of-order execution, branch prediction, cache memories, multi-threading, multicorearchitectures, etc. The authors of this book investigate the timepredictability of such schemes.

  13. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety

  14. Predictive Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

  15. Predicting appointment breaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, A G; Talaga, J

    1995-01-01

    The goal of physician referral services is to schedule appointments, but if too many patients fail to show up, the value of the service will be compromised. The authors found that appointment breaking can be predicted by the number of days to the scheduled appointment, the doctor's specialty, and the patient's age and gender. They also offer specific suggestions for modifying the marketing mix to reduce the incidence of no-shows.

  16. Adjusting estimative prediction limits

    OpenAIRE

    Masao Ueki; Kaoru Fueda

    2007-01-01

    This note presents a direct adjustment of the estimative prediction limit to reduce the coverage error from a target value to third-order accuracy. The adjustment is asymptotically equivalent to those of Barndorff-Nielsen & Cox (1994, 1996) and Vidoni (1998). It has a simpler form with a plug-in estimator of the coverage probability of the estimative limit at the target value. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

  17. Space Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-31

    prominence eruptions and the ensuing coronal mass ejections. The ProMag is a spectro - polarimeter, consisting of a dual-beam polarization modulation unit...feeding a visible camera and an infrared camera. The instrument is designed to measure magnetic fields in solar prominences by simultaneous spectro ...as a result of coronal hole regions, we expect to improve UV predictions by incorporating an estimate of the Earth-side coronal hole regions. 5

  18. Instrument uncertainty predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-07-01

    The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

  19. Predictive Systems Toxicology

    KAUST Repository

    Kiani, Narsis A.; Shang, Ming-Mei; Zenil, Hector; Tegner, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    In this review we address to what extent computational techniques can augment our ability to predict toxicity. The first section provides a brief history of empirical observations on toxicity dating back to the dawn of Sumerian civilization. Interestingly, the concept of dose emerged very early on, leading up to the modern emphasis on kinetic properties, which in turn encodes the insight that toxicity is not solely a property of a compound but instead depends on the interaction with the host organism. The next logical step is the current conception of evaluating drugs from a personalized medicine point-of-view. We review recent work on integrating what could be referred to as classical pharmacokinetic analysis with emerging systems biology approaches incorporating multiple omics data. These systems approaches employ advanced statistical analytical data processing complemented with machine learning techniques and use both pharmacokinetic and omics data. We find that such integrated approaches not only provide improved predictions of toxicity but also enable mechanistic interpretations of the molecular mechanisms underpinning toxicity and drug resistance. We conclude the chapter by discussing some of the main challenges, such as how to balance the inherent tension between the predictive capacity of models, which in practice amounts to constraining the number of features in the models versus allowing for rich mechanistic interpretability, i.e. equipping models with numerous molecular features. This challenge also requires patient-specific predictions on toxicity, which in turn requires proper stratification of patients as regards how they respond, with or without adverse toxic effects. In summary, the transformation of the ancient concept of dose is currently successfully operationalized using rich integrative data encoded in patient-specific models.

  20. Predictive systems ecology

    OpenAIRE

    Evans, Matthew R.; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J.; Dall, Sasha R. X.; D?az, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J.; Lewis, Simon L.; Mace, Georgina M.; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of ...

  1. UXO Burial Prediction Fidelity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-01

    models to capture detailed projectile dynamics during the early phases of water entry are wasted with regard to sediment -penetration depth prediction...ordnance (UXO) migrates and becomes exposed over time in response to water and sediment motion.  Such models need initial sediment penetration estimates...munition’s initial penetration depth into the sediment ,  the velocity of water at the water - sediment boundary (i.e., the bottom water velocity

  2. Predictive Systems Toxicology

    KAUST Repository

    Kiani, Narsis A.

    2018-01-15

    In this review we address to what extent computational techniques can augment our ability to predict toxicity. The first section provides a brief history of empirical observations on toxicity dating back to the dawn of Sumerian civilization. Interestingly, the concept of dose emerged very early on, leading up to the modern emphasis on kinetic properties, which in turn encodes the insight that toxicity is not solely a property of a compound but instead depends on the interaction with the host organism. The next logical step is the current conception of evaluating drugs from a personalized medicine point-of-view. We review recent work on integrating what could be referred to as classical pharmacokinetic analysis with emerging systems biology approaches incorporating multiple omics data. These systems approaches employ advanced statistical analytical data processing complemented with machine learning techniques and use both pharmacokinetic and omics data. We find that such integrated approaches not only provide improved predictions of toxicity but also enable mechanistic interpretations of the molecular mechanisms underpinning toxicity and drug resistance. We conclude the chapter by discussing some of the main challenges, such as how to balance the inherent tension between the predictive capacity of models, which in practice amounts to constraining the number of features in the models versus allowing for rich mechanistic interpretability, i.e. equipping models with numerous molecular features. This challenge also requires patient-specific predictions on toxicity, which in turn requires proper stratification of patients as regards how they respond, with or without adverse toxic effects. In summary, the transformation of the ancient concept of dose is currently successfully operationalized using rich integrative data encoded in patient-specific models.

  3. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  4. Predicting Human Cooperation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Nay

    Full Text Available The Prisoner's Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner's Dilemma (defection, when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner's Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner's Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. We demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.

  5. Predicting big bang deuterium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hata, N.; Scherrer, R.J.; Steigman, G.; Thomas, D.; Walker, T.P. [Department of Physics, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States)

    1996-02-01

    We present new upper and lower bounds to the primordial abundances of deuterium and {sup 3}He based on observational data from the solar system and the interstellar medium. Independent of any model for the primordial production of the elements we find (at the 95{percent} C.L.): 1.5{times}10{sup {minus}5}{le}(D/H){sub {ital P}}{le}10.0{times}10{sup {minus}5} and ({sup 3}He/H){sub {ital P}}{le}2.6{times}10{sup {minus}5}. When combined with the predictions of standard big bang nucleosynthesis, these constraints lead to a 95{percent} C.L. bound on the primordial abundance deuterium: (D/H){sub best}=(3.5{sup +2.7}{sub {minus}1.8}){times}10{sup {minus}5}. Measurements of deuterium absorption in the spectra of high-redshift QSOs will directly test this prediction. The implications of this prediction for the primordial abundances of {sup 4}He and {sup 7}Li are discussed, as well as those for the universal density of baryons. {copyright} {ital 1996 The American Astronomical Society.}

  6. Disruption prediction at JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milani, F.

    1998-12-01

    The sudden loss of the plasma magnetic confinement, known as disruption, is one of the major issue in a nuclear fusion machine as JET (Joint European Torus). Disruptions pose very serious problems to the safety of the machine. The energy stored in the plasma is released to the machine structure in few milliseconds resulting in forces that at JET reach several Mega Newtons. The problem is even more severe in the nuclear fusion power station where the forces are in the order of one hundred Mega Newtons. The events that occur during a disruption are still not well understood even if some mechanisms that can lead to a disruption have been identified and can be used to predict them. Unfortunately it is always a combination of these events that generates a disruption and therefore it is not possible to use simple algorithms to predict it. This thesis analyses the possibility of using neural network algorithms to predict plasma disruptions in real time. This involves the determination of plasma parameters every few milliseconds. A plasma boundary reconstruction algorithm, XLOC, has been developed in collaboration with Dr. D. O'Brien and Dr. J. Ellis capable of determining the plasma wall/distance every 2 milliseconds. The XLOC output has been used to develop a multilayer perceptron network to determine plasma parameters as l i and q ψ with which a machine operational space has been experimentally defined. If the limits of this operational space are breached the disruption probability increases considerably. Another approach for prediction disruptions is to use neural network classification methods to define the JET operational space. Two methods have been studied. The first method uses a multilayer perceptron network with softmax activation function for the output layer. This method can be used for classifying the input patterns in various classes. In this case the plasma input patterns have been divided between disrupting and safe patterns, giving the possibility of

  7. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D

    2015-01-01

    to next generation. The main goal of this study was to see the potential of using genomic prediction in a commercial Barley breeding program. The data used in this study was from Nordic Seed company which is located in Denmark. Around 350 advanced lines were genotyped with 9K Barely chip from Illumina....... Traits used in this study were grain yield, plant height and heading date. Heading date is number days it takes after 1st June for plant to head. Heritabilities were 0.33, 0.44 and 0.48 for yield, height and heading, respectively for the average of nine plots. The GBLUP model was used for genomic...

  8. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jørgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the ‘law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers...... as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the ‘hot-hand fallacy’....

  9. Predictable return distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions......-of-sample analyses show that the relative accuracy of the state variables in predicting future returns varies across the distribution. A portfolio study shows that an investor with power utility can obtain economic gains by applying the empirical return distribution in portfolio decisions instead of imposing...

  10. Predicting Ground Illuminance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesniak, Michael V.; Tregoning, Brett D.; Hitchens, Alexandra E.

    2015-01-01

    Our Sun outputs 3.85 x 1026 W of radiation, of which roughly 37% is in the visible band. It is directly responsible for nearly all natural illuminance experienced on Earth's surface, either in the form of direct/refracted sunlight or in reflected light bouncing off the surfaces and/or atmospheres of our Moon and the visible planets. Ground illuminance, defined as the amount of visible light intercepting a unit area of surface (from all incident angles), varies over 7 orders of magnitude from day to night. It is highly dependent on well-modeled factors such as the relative positions of the Sun, Earth, and Moon. It is also dependent on less predictable factors such as local atmospheric conditions and weather.Several models have been proposed to predict ground illuminance, including Brown (1952) and Shapiro (1982, 1987). The Brown model is a set of empirical data collected from observation points around the world that has been reduced to a smooth fit of illuminance against a single variable, solar altitude. It provides limited applicability to the Moon and for cloudy conditions via multiplicative reduction factors. The Shapiro model is a theoretical model that treats the atmosphere as a three layer system of light reflectance and transmittance. It has different sets of reflectance and transmittance coefficients for various cloud types.In this paper we compare the models' predictions to ground illuminance data from an observing run at the White Sands missile range (data was obtained from the United Kingdom's Meteorology Office). Continuous illuminance readings were recorded under various cloud conditions, during both daytime and nighttime hours. We find that under clear skies, the Shapiro model tends to better fit the observations during daytime hours with typical discrepancies under 10%. Under cloudy skies, both models tend to poorly predict ground illuminance. However, the Shapiro model, with typical average daytime discrepancies of 25% or less in many cases

  11. Predicting sports betting outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Flis, Borut

    2014-01-01

    We wish to build a model, which could predict the outcome of basketball games. The goal was to achieve an sufficient enough accuracy to make a profit in sports betting. One learning example is a game in the NBA regular season. Every example has multiple features, which describe the opposing teams. We tried many methods, which return the probability of the home team winning and the probability of the away team winning. These probabilities are used for risk analysis. We used the best model in h...

  12. Predicting chaotic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, J.D.; Sidorowich, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    We present a forecasting technique for chaotic data. After embedding a time series in a state space using delay coordinates, we ''learn'' the induced nonlinear mapping using local approximation. This allows us to make short-term predictions of the future behavior of a time series, using information based only on past values. We present an error estimate for this technique, and demonstrate its effectiveness by applying it to several examples, including data from the Mackey-Glass delay differential equation, Rayleigh-Benard convection, and Taylor-Couette flow

  13. Lattice of quantum predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drieschner, Michael

    1993-10-01

    What is the structure of reality? Physics is supposed to answer this question, but a purely empiristic view is not sufficient to explain its ability to do so. Quantum mechanics has forced us to think more deeply about what a physical theory is. There are preconditions every physical theory must fulfill. It has to contain, e.g., rules for empirically testable predictions. Those preconditions give physics a structure that is “a priori” in the Kantian sense. An example is given how the lattice structure of quantum mechanics can be understood along these lines.

  14. Foundations of predictive analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, James

    2012-01-01

    Drawing on the authors' two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish--Fisher expansion and o

  15. Prediction of regulatory elements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandelin, Albin

    2008-01-01

    Finding the regulatory mechanisms responsible for gene expression remains one of the most important challenges for biomedical research. A major focus in cellular biology is to find functional transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) responsible for the regulation of a downstream gene. As wet......-lab methods are time consuming and expensive, it is not realistic to identify TFBS for all uncharacterized genes in the genome by purely experimental means. Computational methods aimed at predicting potential regulatory regions can increase the efficiency of wet-lab experiments significantly. Here, methods...

  16. Age and Stress Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    Genoa is a software product that predicts progressive aging and failure in a variety of materials. It is the result of a SBIR contract between the Glenn Research Center and Alpha Star Corporation. Genoa allows designers to determine if the materials they plan on applying to a structure are up to the task or if alternate materials should be considered. Genoa's two feature applications are its progressive failure simulations and its test verification. It allows for a reduction in inspection frequency, rapid design solutions, and manufacturing with low cost materials. It will benefit the aerospace, airline, and automotive industries, with future applications for other uses.

  17. Prediction of Biomolecular Complexes

    KAUST Repository

    Vangone, Anna

    2017-04-12

    Almost all processes in living organisms occur through specific interactions between biomolecules. Any dysfunction of those interactions can lead to pathological events. Understanding such interactions is therefore a crucial step in the investigation of biological systems and a starting point for drug design. In recent years, experimental studies have been devoted to unravel the principles of biomolecular interactions; however, due to experimental difficulties in solving the three-dimensional (3D) structure of biomolecular complexes, the number of available, high-resolution experimental 3D structures does not fulfill the current needs. Therefore, complementary computational approaches to model such interactions are necessary to assist experimentalists since a full understanding of how biomolecules interact (and consequently how they perform their function) only comes from 3D structures which provide crucial atomic details about binding and recognition processes. In this chapter we review approaches to predict biomolecular complexesBiomolecular complexes, introducing the concept of molecular dockingDocking, a technique which uses a combination of geometric, steric and energetics considerations to predict the 3D structure of a biological complex starting from the individual structures of its constituent parts. We provide a mini-guide about docking concepts, its potential and challenges, along with post-docking analysis and a list of related software.

  18. Nuclear criticality predictability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, J.B.

    1999-01-01

    As a result of lots of efforts, a large portion of the tedious and redundant research and processing of critical experiment data has been eliminated. The necessary step in criticality safety analyses of validating computer codes with benchmark critical data is greatly streamlined, and valuable criticality safety experimental data is preserved. Criticality safety personnel in 31 different countries are now using the 'International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments'. Much has been accomplished by the work of the ICSBEP. However, evaluation and documentation represents only one element of a successful Nuclear Criticality Safety Predictability Program and this element only exists as a separate entity, because this work was not completed in conjunction with the experimentation process. I believe; however, that the work of the ICSBEP has also served to unify the other elements of nuclear criticality predictability. All elements are interrelated, but for a time it seemed that communications between these elements was not adequate. The ICSBEP has highlighted gaps in data, has retrieved lost data, has helped to identify errors in cross section processing codes, and has helped bring the international criticality safety community together in a common cause as true friends and colleagues. It has been a privilege to associate with those who work so diligently to make the project a success. (J.P.N.)

  19. Ratchetting strain prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noban, Mohammad; Jahed, Hamid

    2007-01-01

    A time-efficient method for predicting ratchetting strain is proposed. The ratchetting strain at any cycle is determined by finding the ratchetting rate at only a few cycles. This determination is done by first defining the trajectory of the origin of stress in the deviatoric stress space and then incorporating this moving origin into a cyclic plasticity model. It is shown that at the beginning of the loading, the starting point of this trajectory coincides with the initial stress origin and approaches the mean stress, displaying a power-law relationship with the number of loading cycles. The method of obtaining this trajectory from a standard uniaxial asymmetric cyclic loading is presented. Ratchetting rates are calculated with the help of this trajectory and through the use of a constitutive cyclic plasticity model which incorporates deviatoric stresses and back stresses that are measured with respect to this moving frame. The proposed model is used to predict the ratchetting strain of two types of steels under single- and multi-step loadings. Results obtained agree well with the available experimental measurements

  20. Predicting space climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2011-10-01

    Galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles can be hazardous to humans in space, damage spacecraft and satellites, pose threats to aircraft electronics, and expose aircrew and passengers to radiation. A new study shows that these threats are likely to increase in coming years as the Sun approaches the end of the period of high solar activity known as “grand solar maximum,” which has persisted through the past several decades. High solar activity can help protect the Earth by repelling incoming galactic cosmic rays. Understanding the past record can help scientists predict future conditions. Barnard et al. analyzed a 9300-year record of galactic cosmic ray and solar activity based on cosmogenic isotopes in ice cores as well as on neutron monitor data. They used this to predict future variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field, sunspot number, and probability of large solar energetic particle events. The researchers found that the risk of space weather radiation events will likely increase noticeably over the next century compared with recent decades and that lower solar activity will lead to increased galactic cosmic ray levels. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL048489, 2011)

  1. Prediction of Biomolecular Complexes

    KAUST Repository

    Vangone, Anna; Oliva, Romina; Cavallo, Luigi; Bonvin, Alexandre M. J. J.

    2017-01-01

    Almost all processes in living organisms occur through specific interactions between biomolecules. Any dysfunction of those interactions can lead to pathological events. Understanding such interactions is therefore a crucial step in the investigation of biological systems and a starting point for drug design. In recent years, experimental studies have been devoted to unravel the principles of biomolecular interactions; however, due to experimental difficulties in solving the three-dimensional (3D) structure of biomolecular complexes, the number of available, high-resolution experimental 3D structures does not fulfill the current needs. Therefore, complementary computational approaches to model such interactions are necessary to assist experimentalists since a full understanding of how biomolecules interact (and consequently how they perform their function) only comes from 3D structures which provide crucial atomic details about binding and recognition processes. In this chapter we review approaches to predict biomolecular complexesBiomolecular complexes, introducing the concept of molecular dockingDocking, a technique which uses a combination of geometric, steric and energetics considerations to predict the 3D structure of a biological complex starting from the individual structures of its constituent parts. We provide a mini-guide about docking concepts, its potential and challenges, along with post-docking analysis and a list of related software.

  2. Energy Predictions 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-10-15

    Even as the recession begins to subside, the energy sector is still likely to experience challenging conditions as we enter 2011. It should be remembered how very important a role energy plays in driving the global economy. Serving as a simple yet global and unified measure of economic recovery, it is oil's price range and the strength and sustainability of the recovery which will impact the ways in which all forms of energy are produced and consumed. The report aims for a closer insight into these predictions: What will happen with M and A (Mergers and Acquisitions) in the energy industry?; What are the prospects for renewables?; Will the water-energy nexus grow in importance?; How will technological leaps and bounds affect E and P (exploration and production) operations?; What about electric cars? This is the second year Deloitte's Global Energy and Resources Group has published its predictions for the year ahead. The report is based on in-depth interviews with clients, industry analysts, and senior energy practitioners from Deloitte member firms around the world.

  3. Energy Predictions 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-10-01

    Even as the recession begins to subside, the energy sector is still likely to experience challenging conditions as we enter 2011. It should be remembered how very important a role energy plays in driving the global economy. Serving as a simple yet global and unified measure of economic recovery, it is oil's price range and the strength and sustainability of the recovery which will impact the ways in which all forms of energy are produced and consumed. The report aims for a closer insight into these predictions: What will happen with M and A (Mergers and Acquisitions) in the energy industry?; What are the prospects for renewables?; Will the water-energy nexus grow in importance?; How will technological leaps and bounds affect E and P (exploration and production) operations?; What about electric cars? This is the second year Deloitte's Global Energy and Resources Group has published its predictions for the year ahead. The report is based on in-depth interviews with clients, industry analysts, and senior energy practitioners from Deloitte member firms around the world.

  4. Predicting Alloreactivity in Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Geneugelijk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human leukocyte Antigen (HLA mismatching leads to severe complications after solid-organ transplantation and hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. The alloreactive responses underlying the posttransplantation complications include both direct recognition of allogeneic HLA by HLA-specific alloantibodies and T cells and indirect T-cell recognition. However, the immunogenicity of HLA mismatches is highly variable; some HLA mismatches lead to severe clinical B-cell- and T-cell-mediated alloreactivity, whereas others are well tolerated. Definition of the permissibility of HLA mismatches prior to transplantation allows selection of donor-recipient combinations that will have a reduced chance to develop deleterious host-versus-graft responses after solid-organ transplantation and graft-versus-host responses after hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. Therefore, several methods have been developed to predict permissible HLA-mismatch combinations. In this review we aim to give a comprehensive overview about the current knowledge regarding HLA-directed alloreactivity and several developed in vitro and in silico tools that aim to predict direct and indirect alloreactivity.

  5. Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadhana CHIDRAWAR

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available As Model Predictive Control (MPC relies on the predictive Control using a multilayer feed forward network as the plants linear model is presented. In using Newton-Raphson as the optimization algorithm, the number of iterations needed for convergence is significantly reduced from other techniques. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control with Newton-Raphson as minimization algorithm. Taking three separate systems, performances of the system has been tested. Simulation results show the effect of neural network on Generalized Predictive Control. The performance comparison of this three system configurations has been given in terms of ISE and IAE.

  6. Numerical prediction of rose growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernsen, E.; Bokhove, Onno; van der Sar, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    A new mathematical model is presented for the prediction of rose growth in a greenhouse. Given the measured ambient environmental conditions, the model consists of a local photosynthesis model, predicting the photosynthesis per unit leaf area, coupled to a global greenhouse model, which predicts the

  7. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  8. Oral administration of drugs with hypersensitivity potential induces germinal center hyperplasia in secondary lymphoid organ/tissue in Brown Norway rats, and this histological lesion is a promising candidate as a predictive biomarker for drug hypersensitivity occurrence in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamura, Akitoshi; Miyawaki, Izuru; Yamada, Toru; Kimura, Juki; Funabashi, Hitoshi

    2013-01-01

    It is important to evaluate the potential of drug hypersensitivity as well as other adverse effects during the preclinical stage of the drug development process, but validated methods are not available yet. In the present study we examined whether it would be possible to develop a new predictive model of drug hypersensitivity using Brown Norway (BN) rats. As representative drugs with hypersensitivity potential in humans, phenytoin (PHT), carbamazepine (CBZ), amoxicillin (AMX), and sulfamethoxazole (SMX) were orally administered to BN rats for 28 days to investigate their effects on these animals by examinations including observation of clinical signs, hematology, determination of serum IgE levels, histology, and flow cytometric analysis. Skin rashes were not observed in any animals treated with these drugs. Increases in the number of circulating inflammatory cells and serum IgE level did not necessarily occur in the animals treated with these drugs. However, histological examination revealed that germinal center hyperplasia was commonly induced in secondary lymphoid organs/tissues in the animals treated with these drugs. In cytometric analysis, changes in proportions of lymphocyte subsets were noted in the spleen of the animals treated with PHT or CBZ during the early period of administration. The results indicated that the potential of drug hypersensitivity was identified in BN rat by performing histological examination of secondary lymphoid organs/tissues. Data obtained herein suggested that drugs with hypersensitivity potential in humans gained immune reactivity in BN rat, and the germinal center hyperplasia induced by administration of these drugs may serve as a predictive biomarker for drug hypersensitivity occurrence. - Highlights: • We tested Brown Norway rats as a candidate model for predicting drug hypersensitivity. • The allergic drugs did not induce skin rash, whereas D-penicillamine did so in the rats. • Some of allergic drugs increased

  9. Oral administration of drugs with hypersensitivity potential induces germinal center hyperplasia in secondary lymphoid organ/tissue in Brown Norway rats, and this histological lesion is a promising candidate as a predictive biomarker for drug hypersensitivity occurrence in humans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamura, Akitoshi, E-mail: akitoshi-tamura@ds-pharma.co.jp; Miyawaki, Izuru; Yamada, Toru; Kimura, Juki; Funabashi, Hitoshi

    2013-08-15

    It is important to evaluate the potential of drug hypersensitivity as well as other adverse effects during the preclinical stage of the drug development process, but validated methods are not available yet. In the present study we examined whether it would be possible to develop a new predictive model of drug hypersensitivity using Brown Norway (BN) rats. As representative drugs with hypersensitivity potential in humans, phenytoin (PHT), carbamazepine (CBZ), amoxicillin (AMX), and sulfamethoxazole (SMX) were orally administered to BN rats for 28 days to investigate their effects on these animals by examinations including observation of clinical signs, hematology, determination of serum IgE levels, histology, and flow cytometric analysis. Skin rashes were not observed in any animals treated with these drugs. Increases in the number of circulating inflammatory cells and serum IgE level did not necessarily occur in the animals treated with these drugs. However, histological examination revealed that germinal center hyperplasia was commonly induced in secondary lymphoid organs/tissues in the animals treated with these drugs. In cytometric analysis, changes in proportions of lymphocyte subsets were noted in the spleen of the animals treated with PHT or CBZ during the early period of administration. The results indicated that the potential of drug hypersensitivity was identified in BN rat by performing histological examination of secondary lymphoid organs/tissues. Data obtained herein suggested that drugs with hypersensitivity potential in humans gained immune reactivity in BN rat, and the germinal center hyperplasia induced by administration of these drugs may serve as a predictive biomarker for drug hypersensitivity occurrence. - Highlights: • We tested Brown Norway rats as a candidate model for predicting drug hypersensitivity. • The allergic drugs did not induce skin rash, whereas D-penicillamine did so in the rats. • Some of allergic drugs increased

  10. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. Results We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm, is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. Conclusion We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  11. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bin; Kihara, Daisuke

    2012-01-10

    Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm), is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  12. Epitope prediction methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karosiene, Edita

    Analysis. The chapter provides detailed explanations on how to use different methods for T cell epitope discovery research, explaining how input should be given as well as how to interpret the output. In the last chapter, I present the results of a bioinformatics analysis of epitopes from the yellow fever...... peptide-MHC interactions. Furthermore, using yellow fever virus epitopes, we demonstrated the power of the %Rank score when compared with the binding affinity score of MHC prediction methods, suggesting that this score should be considered to be used for selecting potential T cell epitopes. In summary...... immune responses. Therefore, it is of great importance to be able to identify peptides that bind to MHC molecules, in order to understand the nature of immune responses and discover T cell epitopes useful for designing new vaccines and immunotherapies. MHC molecules in humans, referred to as human...

  13. Motor degradation prediction methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-12-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor`s duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures.

  14. Filter replacement lifetime prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Klein, Levente I.; Manzer, Dennis G.; Marianno, Fernando J.

    2017-10-25

    Methods and systems for predicting a filter lifetime include building a filter effectiveness history based on contaminant sensor information associated with a filter; determining a rate of filter consumption with a processor based on the filter effectiveness history; and determining a remaining filter lifetime based on the determined rate of filter consumption. Methods and systems for increasing filter economy include measuring contaminants in an internal and an external environment; determining a cost of a corrosion rate increase if unfiltered external air intake is increased for cooling; determining a cost of increased air pressure to filter external air; and if the cost of filtering external air exceeds the cost of the corrosion rate increase, increasing an intake of unfiltered external air.

  15. Neurological abnormalities predict disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poggesi, Anna; Gouw, Alida; van der Flier, Wiesje

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the role of neurological abnormalities and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions in predicting global functional decline in a cohort of initially independent-living elderly subjects. The Leukoaraiosis And DISability (LADIS) Study, involving 11 European centres, was primarily aimed...... at evaluating age-related white matter changes (ARWMC) as an independent predictor of the transition to disability (according to Instrumental Activities of Daily Living scale) or death in independent elderly subjects that were followed up for 3 years. At baseline, a standardized neurological examination.......0 years, 45 % males), 327 (51.7 %) presented at the initial visit with ≥1 neurological abnormality and 242 (38 %) reached the main study outcome. Cox regression analyses, adjusting for MRI features and other determinants of functional decline, showed that the baseline presence of any neurological...

  16. Motor degradation prediction methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor's duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures

  17. Predictability in community dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J; Graae, Bente J; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-03-01

    The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  18. Neonatal heart rate prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Rahman, Yumna; Jeremic, Aleksander; Tan, Kenneth

    2009-01-01

    Technological advances have caused a decrease in the number of infant deaths. Pre-term infants now have a substantially increased chance of survival. One of the mechanisms that is vital to saving the lives of these infants is continuous monitoring and early diagnosis. With continuous monitoring huge amounts of data are collected with so much information embedded in them. By using statistical analysis this information can be extracted and used to aid diagnosis and to understand development. In this study we have a large dataset containing over 180 pre-term infants whose heart rates were recorded over the length of their stay in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). We test two types of models, empirical bayesian and autoregressive moving average. We then attempt to predict future values. The autoregressive moving average model showed better results but required more computation.

  19. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash...... in marine atmospheric and submersed South Scandinavian environment. The design parameters are based on sequential measurements of 86 chloride profiles taken over ten years from 13 different types of concrete. The design parameters provide the input for an analytical model for chloride profiles as function...... of depth and time, when both the surface chloride concentration and the diffusion coefficient are allowed to vary in time. The model is presented in a companion paper....

  20. Strontium 90 fallout prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarmiento, J.L.; Gwinn, E.

    1986-01-01

    An empirical formula is developed for predicting monthly sea level strontium 90 fallout (F) in the northern hemisphere as a function of time (t), precipitation rate (P), latitude (phi), longitude (lambda), and the sea level concentration of stronium 90 in air (C): F(lambda, phi, t) = C(t, phi)[v /sub d/(phi) + v/sub w/(lambda, phi, t)], where v/sub w/(lambda, phi, t) = a(phi)[P(lambda, phi, t)/P/sub o/]/sup b//sup (//sup phi//sup )/ is the wet removal, v/sub d/(phi) is the dry removal and P 0 is 1 cm/month. The constants v/sub d/, a, and b are determined as functions of latitude by fitting land based observations. The concentration of 90 Sr in air is calculated as a function of the deseasonalized concentration at a reference latitude (C-bar/sub r//sub e//sub f/), the ratio of the observations at the latitude of interest to the reference latitude (R), and a function representing the seasonal trend in the air concentration (1 + g): C-bar(t, phi) = C/sub r//sub e//sub f/(t)R(phi)[1 + g(m, phi)]; m is the month. Zonal trends in C are shown to be relatively small. This formula can be used in conjuction with precipitation observations and/or estimates to predict fallout in the northern hemisphere for any month in the years 1954 to 1974. Error estimates are given; they do not include uncertainty due to errors in precipitation data

  1. Plume rise predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, G.A.

    1976-01-01

    Anyone involved with diffusion calculations becomes well aware of the strong dependence of maximum ground concentrations on the effective stack height, h/sub e/. For most conditions chi/sub max/ is approximately proportional to h/sub e/ -2 , as has been recognized at least since 1936 (Bosanquet and Pearson). Making allowance for the gradual decrease in the ratio of vertical to lateral diffusion at increasing heights, the exponent is slightly larger, say chi/sub max/ approximately h/sub e/ - 2 . 3 . In inversion breakup fumigation, the exponent is somewhat smaller; very crudely, chi/sub max/ approximately h/sub e/ -1 . 5 . In any case, for an elevated emission the dependence of chi/sub max/ on h/sub e/ is substantial. It is postulated that a really clever ignorant theoretician can disguise his ignorance with dimensionless constants. For most sources the effective stack height is considerably larger than the actual source height, h/sub s/. For instance, for power plants with no downwash problems, h/sub e/ is more than twice h/sub s/ whenever the wind is less than 10 m/sec, which is most of the time. This is unfortunate for anyone who has to predict ground concentrations, for he is likely to have to calculate the plume rise, Δh. Especially when using h/sub e/ = h/sub s/ + Δh instead of h/sub s/ may reduce chi/sub max/ by a factor of anywhere from 4 to infinity. Factors to be considered in making plume rise predictions are discussed

  2. Predictive coarse-graining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schöberl, Markus, E-mail: m.schoeberl@tum.de [Continuum Mechanics Group, Technical University of Munich, Boltzmannstraße 15, 85748 Garching (Germany); Zabaras, Nicholas [Institute for Advanced Study, Technical University of Munich, Lichtenbergstraße 2a, 85748 Garching (Germany); Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, University of Notre Dame, 365 Fitzpatrick Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556 (United States); Koutsourelakis, Phaedon-Stelios [Continuum Mechanics Group, Technical University of Munich, Boltzmannstraße 15, 85748 Garching (Germany)

    2017-03-15

    We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a probabilistic coarse-to-fine map. This corresponds to a directed probabilistic model where the coarse variables play the role of latent generators of the fine scale (all-atom) data. From an information-theoretic perspective, the framework proposed provides an improvement upon the relative entropy method and is capable of quantifying the uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place during the coarse-graining process. Furthermore, it can be readily extended to a fully Bayesian model where various sources of uncertainties are reflected in the posterior of the model parameters. The latter can be used to produce not only point estimates of fine-scale reconstructions or macroscopic observables, but more importantly, predictive posterior distributions on these quantities. Predictive posterior distributions reflect the confidence of the model as a function of the amount of data and the level of coarse-graining. The issues of model complexity and model selection are seamlessly addressed by employing a hierarchical prior that favors the discovery of sparse solutions, revealing the most prominent features in the coarse-grained model. A flexible and parallelizable Monte Carlo – Expectation–Maximization (MC-EM) scheme is proposed for carrying out inference and learning tasks. A comparative assessment of the proposed methodology is presented for a lattice spin system and the SPC/E water model.

  3. Predictive values of diagnostic codes for identifying serious hypocalcemia and dermatologic adverse events among women with postmenopausal osteoporosis in a commercial health plan database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Florence T; Xue, Fei; Ding, Yan; Ng, Eva; Critchlow, Cathy W; Dore, David D

    2018-04-10

    Post-marketing safety studies of medicines often rely on administrative claims databases to identify adverse outcomes following drug exposure. Valid ascertainment of outcomes is essential for accurate results. We aim to quantify the validity of diagnostic codes for serious hypocalcemia and dermatologic adverse events from insurance claims data among women with postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO). We identified potential cases of serious hypocalcemia and dermatologic events through ICD-9 diagnosis codes among women with PMO within claims from a large US healthcare insurer (June 2005-May 2010). A physician adjudicated potential hypocalcemic and dermatologic events identified from the primary position on emergency department (ED) or inpatient claims through medical record review. Positive predictive values (PPVs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) quantified the fraction of potential cases that were confirmed. Among 165,729 patients with PMO, medical charts were obtained for 40 of 55 (73%) potential hypocalcemia cases; 16 were confirmed (PPV 40%, 95% CI 25-57%). The PPV was higher for ED than inpatient claims (82 vs. 24%). Among 265 potential dermatologic events (primarily urticaria or rash), we obtained 184 (69%) charts and confirmed 128 (PPV 70%, 95% CI 62-76%). The PPV was higher for ED than inpatient claims (77 vs. 39%). Diagnostic codes for hypocalcemia and dermatologic events may be sufficient to identify events giving rise to emergency care, but are less accurate for identifying events within hospitalizations.

  4. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  5. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp [Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electomagnetics, Co. Ltd., University of Electro-Communications (UEC) Incubation Center, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu Tokyo, 182-8585 (Japan); Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo (Japan); Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062 (Japan); Fuji Security Systems. Co. Ltd., Iwato-cho 1, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo (Japan)

    2016-02-01

    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

  6. Performance Prediction Toolkit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-25

    The Performance Prediction Toolkit (PPT), is a scalable co-design tool that contains the hardware and middle-ware models, which accept proxy applications as input in runtime prediction. PPT relies on Simian, a parallel discrete event simulation engine in Python or Lua, that uses the process concept, where each computing unit (host, node, core) is a Simian entity. Processes perform their task through message exchanges to remain active, sleep, wake-up, begin and end. The PPT hardware model of a compute core (such as a Haswell core) consists of a set of parameters, such as clock speed, memory hierarchy levels, their respective sizes, cache-lines, access times for different cache levels, average cycle counts of ALU operations, etc. These parameters are ideally read off a spec sheet or are learned using regression models learned from hardware counters (PAPI) data. The compute core model offers an API to the software model, a function called time_compute(), which takes as input a tasklist. A tasklist is an unordered set of ALU, and other CPU-type operations (in particular virtual memory loads and stores). The PPT application model mimics the loop structure of the application and replaces the computational kernels with a call to the hardware model's time_compute() function giving tasklists as input that model the compute kernel. A PPT application model thus consists of tasklists representing kernels and the high-er level loop structure that we like to think of as pseudo code. The key challenge for the hardware model's time_compute-function is to translate virtual memory accesses into actual cache hierarchy level hits and misses.PPT also contains another CPU core level hardware model, Analytical Memory Model (AMM). The AMM solves this challenge soundly, where our previous alternatives explicitly include the L1,L2,L3 hit-rates as inputs to the tasklists. Explicit hit-rates inevitably only reflect the application modeler's best guess, perhaps informed by a few

  7. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  8. Predictability of blocking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tosi, E.; Ruti, P.; Tibaldi, S.; D'Andrea, F.

    1994-01-01

    Tibaldi and Molteni (1990, hereafter referred to as TM) had previously investigated operational blocking predictability by the ECMWF model and the possible relationships between model systematic error and blocking in the winter season of the Northern Hemisphere, using seven years of ECMWF operational archives of analyses and day 1 to 10 forecasts. They showed that fewer blocking episodes than in the real atmosphere were generally simulated by the model, and that this deficiency increased with increasing forecast time. As a consequence of this, a major contribution to the systematic error in the winter season was shown to derive from the inability of the model to properly forecast blocking. In this study, the analysis performed in TM for the first seven winter seasons of the ECMWF operational model is extended to the subsequent five winters, during which model development, reflecting both resolution increases and parametrisation modifications, continued unabated. In addition the objective blocking index developed by TM has been applied to the observed data to study the natural low frequency variability of blocking. The ability to simulate blocking of some climate models has also been tested

  9. GABA predicts visual intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Emily; Hammett, Stephen T; Larsson, Jonas

    2016-10-06

    Early psychological researchers proposed a link between intelligence and low-level perceptual performance. It was recently suggested that this link is driven by individual variations in the ability to suppress irrelevant information, evidenced by the observation of strong correlations between perceptual surround suppression and cognitive performance. However, the neural mechanisms underlying such a link remain unclear. A candidate mechanism is neural inhibition by gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), but direct experimental support for GABA-mediated inhibition underlying suppression is inconsistent. Here we report evidence consistent with a global suppressive mechanism involving GABA underlying the link between sensory performance and intelligence. We measured visual cortical GABA concentration, visuo-spatial intelligence and visual surround suppression in a group of healthy adults. Levels of GABA were strongly predictive of both intelligence and surround suppression, with higher levels of intelligence associated with higher levels of GABA and stronger surround suppression. These results indicate that GABA-mediated neural inhibition may be a key factor determining cognitive performance and suggests a physiological mechanism linking surround suppression and intelligence. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. Predictability in cellular automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agapie, Alexandru; Andreica, Anca; Chira, Camelia; Giuclea, Marius

    2014-01-01

    Modelled as finite homogeneous Markov chains, probabilistic cellular automata with local transition probabilities in (0, 1) always posses a stationary distribution. This result alone is not very helpful when it comes to predicting the final configuration; one needs also a formula connecting the probabilities in the stationary distribution to some intrinsic feature of the lattice configuration. Previous results on the asynchronous cellular automata have showed that such feature really exists. It is the number of zero-one borders within the automaton's binary configuration. An exponential formula in the number of zero-one borders has been proved for the 1-D, 2-D and 3-D asynchronous automata with neighborhood three, five and seven, respectively. We perform computer experiments on a synchronous cellular automaton to check whether the empirical distribution obeys also that theoretical formula. The numerical results indicate a perfect fit for neighbourhood three and five, which opens the way for a rigorous proof of the formula in this new, synchronous case.

  11. Predictive Manufacturing: A Classification Strategy to Predict Product Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Kulahci, Murat

    2018-01-01

    manufacturing analytics model that employs a big data approach to predicting product failures; third, we illustrate the issue of high dimensionality, along with statistically redundant information; and, finally, our proposed method will be compared against the well-known classification methods (SVM, K......-nearest neighbor, artificial neural networks). The results from real data show that our predictive manufacturing analytics approach, using genetic algorithms and Voronoi tessellations, is capable of predicting product failure with reasonable accuracy. The potential application of this method contributes...... to accurately predicting product failures, which would enable manufacturers to reduce production costs without compromising product quality....

  12. What's in a Rash? Viral Exanthem Versus CBRNE Exposure: Teleconsultation Support for Two Special Forces Soldiers With Diffuse Rash in an Austere Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Howard D; Butterfield, Samuel; Maddry, Joseph; Powell, Douglas; Vasios, William N; Yun, Heather; Ferraro, David; Pamplin, Jeremy C

    2018-01-01

    Review clinical thought process and key principles for diagnosing weaponized chemical and biologic injuries. Clinical Context: Special Operation Forces (SOF) team deployed in an undisclosed, austere environment. Organic Expertise: Two SOF Soldiers with civilian EMT-Basic certification. Closest Medical Support: Mobile Forward Surgical Team (2 hours away); medical consults available by e-mail, phone, or video-teleconsultation. Earliest Evacuation: Earliest military evacuation from country 12-24 hours. With teleconsultation, patients departed to Germany as originally scheduled without need for Medical Evacuation. 2018.

  13. House Price Prediction Using LSTM

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Xiaochen; Wei, Lai; Xu, Jiaxin

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we use the house price data ranging from January 2004 to October 2016 to predict the average house price of November and December in 2016 for each district in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. We apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model to generate the baseline while LSTM networks to build prediction model. These algorithms are compared in terms of Mean Squared Error. The result shows that the LSTM model has excellent properties with respect to predict time...

  14. Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Magister, Tone

    2009-01-01

    The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

  15. Review of Nearshore Morphologic Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, N. G.; Dalyander, S.; Long, J.

    2014-12-01

    The evolution of the world's erodible coastlines will determine the balance between the benefits and costs associated with human and ecological utilization of shores, beaches, dunes, barrier islands, wetlands, and estuaries. So, we would like to predict coastal evolution to guide management and planning of human and ecological response to coastal changes. After decades of research investment in data collection, theoretical and statistical analysis, and model development we have a number of empirical, statistical, and deterministic models that can predict the evolution of the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and wetlands over time scales of hours to decades, and even predict the evolution of geologic strata over the course of millennia. Comparisons of predictions to data have demonstrated that these models can have meaningful predictive skill. But these comparisons also highlight the deficiencies in fundamental understanding, formulations, or data that are responsible for prediction errors and uncertainty. Here, we review a subset of predictive models of the nearshore to illustrate tradeoffs in complexity, predictive skill, and sensitivity to input data and parameterization errors. We identify where future improvement in prediction skill will result from improved theoretical understanding, and data collection, and model-data assimilation.

  16. PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.

  17. Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

  18. Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

    Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

  19. Predicting epileptic seizures in advance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negin Moghim

    Full Text Available Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6-0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling, is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance.

  20. Quadratic prediction of factor scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T

    1999-01-01

    Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicators y. Under normality this expectation is linear in y but in general it is an unknown function of y. II is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic

  1. Predictions for Excited Strange Baryons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernando, Ishara P.; Goity, Jose L. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States)

    2016-04-01

    An assessment is made of predictions for excited hyperon masses which follow from flavor symmetry and consistency with a 1/N c expansion of QCD. Such predictions are based on presently established baryonic resonances. Low lying hyperon resonances which do not seem to fit into the proposed scheme are discussed.

  2. Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Forecast Discussion PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD INFLUENCE ON THE MONTHLY-AVERAGED CLIMATE. OUR MID-MONTH ASSESSMENT OF LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATE VARIABILITY IS

  3. Dividend Predictability Around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    We show that dividend-growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our f...

  4. Dividend Predictability Around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    We show that dividend growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our f...

  5. Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

    2009-03-13

    Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

  6. Prediction during natural language comprehension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, R.M.; Frank, S.L.; Nijhof, A.D.; Hagoort, P.; Bosch, A.P.J. van den

    2016-01-01

    The notion of prediction is studied in cognitive neuroscience with increasing intensity. We investigated the neural basis of 2 distinct aspects of word prediction, derived from information theory, during story comprehension. We assessed the effect of entropy of next-word probability distributions as

  7. Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

  8. Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina García, Pedro M; Baños Rivera, Rosa M

    2016-05-01

    Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred. Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists. High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants. These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.

  9. Predictive Biomarkers for Asthma Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medrek, Sarah K; Parulekar, Amit D; Hanania, Nicola A

    2017-09-19

    Asthma is a heterogeneous disease characterized by multiple phenotypes. Treatment of patients with severe disease can be challenging. Predictive biomarkers are measurable characteristics that reflect the underlying pathophysiology of asthma and can identify patients that are likely to respond to a given therapy. This review discusses current knowledge regarding predictive biomarkers in asthma. Recent trials evaluating biologic therapies targeting IgE, IL-5, IL-13, and IL-4 have utilized predictive biomarkers to identify patients who might benefit from treatment. Other work has suggested that using composite biomarkers may offer enhanced predictive capabilities in tailoring asthma therapy. Multiple biomarkers including sputum eosinophil count, blood eosinophil count, fractional concentration of nitric oxide in exhaled breath (FeNO), and serum periostin have been used to identify which patients will respond to targeted asthma medications. Further work is needed to integrate predictive biomarkers into clinical practice.

  10. Are abrupt climate changes predictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditlevsen, Peter

    2013-04-01

    It is taken for granted that the limited predictability in the initial value problem, the weather prediction, and the predictability of the statistics are two distinct problems. Lorenz (1975) dubbed this predictability of the first and the second kind respectively. Predictability of the first kind in a chaotic dynamical system is limited due to the well-known critical dependence on initial conditions. Predictability of the second kind is possible in an ergodic system, where either the dynamics is known and the phase space attractor can be characterized by simulation or the system can be observed for such long times that the statistics can be obtained from temporal averaging, assuming that the attractor does not change in time. For the climate system the distinction between predictability of the first and the second kind is fuzzy. This difficulty in distinction between predictability of the first and of the second kind is related to the lack of scale separation between fast and slow components of the climate system. The non-linear nature of the problem furthermore opens the possibility of multiple attractors, or multiple quasi-steady states. As the ice-core records show, the climate has been jumping between different quasi-stationary climates, stadials and interstadials through the Dansgaard-Oechger events. Such a jump happens very fast when a critical tipping point has been reached. The question is: Can such a tipping point be predicted? This is a new kind of predictability: the third kind. If the tipping point is reached through a bifurcation, where the stability of the system is governed by some control parameter, changing in a predictable way to a critical value, the tipping is predictable. If the sudden jump occurs because internal chaotic fluctuations, noise, push the system across a barrier, the tipping is as unpredictable as the triggering noise. In order to hint at an answer to this question, a careful analysis of the high temporal resolution NGRIP isotope

  11. Emerging approaches in predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Luoping; McHale, Cliona M; Greene, Nigel; Snyder, Ronald D; Rich, Ivan N; Aardema, Marilyn J; Roy, Shambhu; Pfuhler, Stefan; Venkatactahalam, Sundaresan

    2014-12-01

    Predictive toxicology plays an important role in the assessment of toxicity of chemicals and the drug development process. While there are several well-established in vitro and in vivo assays that are suitable for predictive toxicology, recent advances in high-throughput analytical technologies and model systems are expected to have a major impact on the field of predictive toxicology. This commentary provides an overview of the state of the current science and a brief discussion on future perspectives for the field of predictive toxicology for human toxicity. Computational models for predictive toxicology, needs for further refinement and obstacles to expand computational models to include additional classes of chemical compounds are highlighted. Functional and comparative genomics approaches in predictive toxicology are discussed with an emphasis on successful utilization of recently developed model systems for high-throughput analysis. The advantages of three-dimensional model systems and stem cells and their use in predictive toxicology testing are also described. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Earthquake prediction by Kina Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kianoosh, H.; Keypour, H.; Naderzadeh, A.; Motlagh, H.F.

    2005-01-01

    Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)

  13. Collective motion of predictive swarms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel Rupprecht

    Full Text Available Theoretical models of populations and swarms typically start with the assumption that the motion of agents is governed by the local stimuli. However, an intelligent agent, with some understanding of the laws that govern its habitat, can anticipate the future, and make predictions to gather resources more efficiently. Here we study a specific model of this kind, where agents aim to maximize their consumption of a diffusing resource, by attempting to predict the future of a resource field and the actions of other agents. Once the agents make a prediction, they are attracted to move towards regions that have, and will have, denser resources. We find that the further the agents attempt to see into the future, the more their attempts at prediction fail, and the less resources they consume. We also study the case where predictive agents compete against non-predictive agents and find the predictors perform better than the non-predictors only when their relative numbers are very small. We conclude that predictivity pays off either when the predictors do not see too far into the future or the number of predictors is small.

  14. Dividend Predictability Around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schrimpf, Andreas

    The common perception in the literature, mainly based on U.S. data, is that current dividend yields are uninformative about future dividends. We show that this nding changes substantially when looking at a broad international panel of countries, as aggregate dividend growth rates are found...... that in countries where the quality of institutions is high, dividend predictability is weaker. These ndings indicate that the apparent lack of dividend predictability in the U.S. does not, in general, extend to other countries. Rather, dividend predictability is driven by cross-country dierences in rm...

  15. The Theory of Linear Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Vaidyanathan, PP

    2007-01-01

    Linear prediction theory has had a profound impact in the field of digital signal processing. Although the theory dates back to the early 1940s, its influence can still be seen in applications today. The theory is based on very elegant mathematics and leads to many beautiful insights into statistical signal processing. Although prediction is only a part of the more general topics of linear estimation, filtering, and smoothing, this book focuses on linear prediction. This has enabled detailed discussion of a number of issues that are normally not found in texts. For example, the theory of vecto

  16. Practical aspects of geological prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallio, W.J.; Peck, J.H.

    1981-01-01

    Nuclear waste disposal requires that geology be a predictive science. The prediction of future events rests on (1) recognizing the periodicity of geologic events; (2) defining a critical dimension of effect, such as the area of a drainage basin, the length of a fault trace, etc; and (3) using our understanding of active processes the project the frequency and magnitude of future events in the light of geological principles. Of importance to nuclear waste disposal are longer term processes such as continental denudation and removal of materials by glacial erosion. Constant testing of projections will allow the practical limits of predicting geological events to be defined. 11 refs

  17. Adaptive filtering prediction and control

    CERN Document Server

    Goodwin, Graham C

    2009-01-01

    Preface1. Introduction to Adaptive TechniquesPart 1. Deterministic Systems2. Models for Deterministic Dynamical Systems3. Parameter Estimation for Deterministic Systems4. Deterministic Adaptive Prediction5. Control of Linear Deterministic Systems6. Adaptive Control of Linear Deterministic SystemsPart 2. Stochastic Systems7. Optimal Filtering and Prediction8. Parameter Estimation for Stochastic Dynamic Systems9. Adaptive Filtering and Prediction10. Control of Stochastic Systems11. Adaptive Control of Stochastic SystemsAppendicesA. A Brief Review of Some Results from Systems TheoryB. A Summary o

  18. Predicting emergency diesel starting performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeBey, T.M.

    1989-01-01

    The US Department of Energy effort to extend the operational lives of commercial nuclear power plants has examined methods for predicting the performance of specific equipment. This effort focuses on performance prediction as a means for reducing equipment surveillance, maintenance, and outages. Realizing these goals will result in nuclear plants that are more reliable, have lower maintenance costs, and have longer lives. This paper describes a monitoring system that has been developed to predict starting performance in emergency diesels. A prototype system has been built and tested on an engine at Sandia National Laboratories. 2 refs

  19. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  20. Fatigue life prediction in composites

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Huston, RJ

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of the relatively large number of possible failure mechanisms in fibre reinforced composite materials, the prediction of fatigue life in a component is not a simple process. Several mathematical and statistical models have been proposed...

  1. Trading network predicts stock price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  2. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik

    2002-01-01

    , it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...... the coefficient vectors from each subset should be weighted. It is not computationally feasible to calculate the mean subset coefficient vector for larger problems, and thus we suggest an algorithm to find an approximation to the mean subset coefficient vector. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study...

  3. EPRI MOV performance prediction program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosler, J.F.; Damerell, P.S.; Eidson, M.G.; Estep, N.E.

    1994-01-01

    An overview of the EPRI Motor-Operated Valve (MOV) Performance Prediction Program is presented. The objectives of this Program are to better understand the factors affecting the performance of MOVs and to develop and validate methodologies to predict MOV performance. The Program involves valve analytical modeling, separate-effects testing to refine the models, and flow-loop and in-plant MOV testing to provide a basis for model validation. The ultimate product of the Program is an MOV Performance Prediction Methodology applicable to common gate, globe, and butterfly valves. The methodology predicts thrust and torque requirements at design-basis flow and differential pressure conditions, assesses the potential for gate valve internal damage, and provides test methods to quantify potential for gate valve internal damage, and provides test methods to quantify potential variations in actuator output thrust with loading condition. Key findings and their potential impact on MOV design and engineering application are summarized

  4. In silico prediction of genotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wichard, Jörg D

    2017-08-01

    The in silico prediction of genotoxicity has made considerable progress during the last years. The main driver for the pharmaceutical industry is the ICH M7 guideline about the assessment of DNA reactive impurities. An important component of this guideline is the use of in silico models as an alternative approach to experimental testing. The in silico prediction of genotoxicity provides an established and accepted method that defines the first step in the assessment of DNA reactive impurities. This was made possible by the growing amount of reliable Ames screening data, the attempts to understand the activity pathways and the subsequent development of computer-based prediction systems. This paper gives an overview of how the in silico prediction of genotoxicity is performed under the ICH M7 guideline. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. New Tool to Predict Glaucoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... In This Section A New Tool to Predict Glaucoma email Send this article to a friend by ... Close Send Thanks for emailing that article! Tweet Glaucoma can be difficult to detect and diagnose. Measurement ...

  6. Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.

    1981-12-01

    We have attempted to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. We have extended the concept of `classical' predictability, which primarily refers to the lack of predictability due mainly to the instabilities of synoptic-scale disturbances, to the predictability of time averages, which are determined by the predictability of low-frequency planetary waves. We have carded out 60-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperature, snow, sea ice and soil moisture. Three of these initial conditions are the observed atmospheric conditions on 1 January of 1975, 1976 and 1977. The other six initial conditions are obtained by superimposing over the observed initial conditions a random perturbation comparable to the errors of observation. The root-mean-square (rms) error of random perturbations at all the grid points and all the model levels is 3 m s1 in u and v components of wind. The rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is >15 m s1.It is hypothesized that for a given averaging period, if the rms error among the time averages predicted from largely different initial conditions becomes comparable to the rms error among the time averages predicted from randomly perturbed initial conditions, the time averages are dynamically unpredictable. We have carried out the analysis of variance to compare the variability, among the three groups, due to largely different initial conditions, and within each group due to random perturbations.It is found that the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from largely different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, whereas the variances among 30-day means for days 31-60 are not distinguishable from the variances due to random initial

  7. Predictive coding in Agency Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Marc Malmdorf

    2017-01-01

    Agency detection is a central concept in the cognitive science of religion (CSR). Experimental studies, however, have so far failed to lend support to some of the most common predictions that follow from current theories on agency detection. In this article, I argue that predictive coding, a highly...... promising new framework for understanding perception and action, may solve pending theoretical inconsistencies in agency detection research, account for the puzzling experimental findings mentioned above, and provide hypotheses for future experimental testing. Predictive coding explains how the brain......, unbeknownst to consciousness, engages in sophisticated Bayesian statistics in an effort to constantly predict the hidden causes of sensory input. My fundamental argument is that most false positives in agency detection can be seen as the result of top-down interference in a Bayesian system generating high...

  8. Time-predictable Stack Caching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abbaspourseyedi, Sahar

    completely. Thus, in systems with hard deadlines the worst-case execution time (WCET) of the real-time software running on them needs to be bounded. Modern architectures use features such as pipelining and caches for improving the average performance. These features, however, make the WCET analysis more...... addresses, provides an opportunity to predict and tighten the WCET of accesses to data in caches. In this thesis, we introduce the time-predictable stack cache design and implementation within a time-predictable processor. We introduce several optimizations to our design for tightening the WCET while...... keeping the timepredictability of the design intact. Moreover, we provide a solution for reducing the cost of context switching in a system using the stack cache. In design of these caches, we use custom hardware and compiler support for delivering time-predictable stack data accesses. Furthermore...

  9. NASA/MSFC prediction techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.E.

    1987-01-01

    The NASA/MSFC method of forecasting is more formal than NOAA's. The data are smoothed by the Lagrangian method and linear regression prediction techniques are used. The solar activity period is fixed at 11 years--the mean period of all previous cycles. Interestingly, the present prediction for the time of the next solar minimum is February or March of 1987, which, within the uncertainties of two methods, can be taken to be the same as the NOAA result

  10. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beyer, Theresa

    2001-01-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of paracetamol (acetaminophen), the influence of the variations of the molecular model on the crystal structure lattice energy minima, has also been studied. The general problem of prediction methods based on the assumption that the experimental thermodynamically stable polymorph corresponds to the global lattice energy minimum, is that more hypothetical low lattice energy structures are found within a few kJ mol -1 of the global minimum than are likely to be experimentally observed polymorphs. This is illustrated by the results for molecule I, 3-oxabicyclo(3.2.0)hepta-1,4-diene, studied for the first international blindtest for small organic crystal structures organised by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC) in May 1999. To reduce the number of predicted polymorphs, additional factors to thermodynamic criteria have to be considered. Therefore the elastic constants and vapour growth morphologies have been calculated for the lowest lattice energy

  11. Does Carbon Dioxide Predict Temperature?

    OpenAIRE

    Mytty, Tuukka

    2013-01-01

    Does carbon dioxide predict temperature? No it does not, in the time period of 1880-2004 with the carbon dioxide and temperature data used in this thesis. According to the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) carbon dioxide is the most important factor in raising the global temperature. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that carbon dioxide truly predicts temperature. Because this paper uses observational data it has to be kept in mind that no causality interpretation can be ma...

  12. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beyer, Theresa

    2001-07-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of paracetamol (acetaminophen), the influence of the variations of the molecular model on the crystal structure lattice energy minima, has also been studied. The general problem of prediction methods based on the assumption that the experimental thermodynamically stable polymorph corresponds to the global lattice energy minimum, is that more hypothetical low lattice energy structures are found within a few kJ mol{sup -1} of the global minimum than are likely to be experimentally observed polymorphs. This is illustrated by the results for molecule I, 3-oxabicyclo(3.2.0)hepta-1,4-diene, studied for the first international blindtest for small organic crystal structures organised by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC) in May 1999. To reduce the number of predicted polymorphs, additional factors to thermodynamic criteria have to be considered. Therefore the elastic constants and vapour growth morphologies have been calculated for the lowest lattice energy

  13. Prediction of interannual climate variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, J.

    1993-01-01

    It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction. (orig./KW)

  14. Postprocessing for Air Quality Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delle Monache, L.

    2017-12-01

    In recent year, air quality (AQ) forecasting has made significant progress towards better predictions with the goal of protecting the public from harmful pollutants. This progress is the results of improvements in weather and chemical transport models, their coupling, and more accurate emission inventories (e.g., with the development of new algorithms to account in near real-time for fires). Nevertheless, AQ predictions are still affected at times by significant biases which stem from limitations in both weather and chemistry transport models. Those are the result of numerical approximations and the poor representation (and understanding) of important physical and chemical process. Moreover, although the quality of emission inventories has been significantly improved, they are still one of the main sources of uncertainties in AQ predictions. For operational real-time AQ forecasting, a significant portion of these biases can be reduced with the implementation of postprocessing methods. We will review some of the techniques that have been proposed to reduce both systematic and random errors of AQ predictions, and improve the correlation between predictions and observations of ground-level ozone and surface particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5). These methods, which can be applied to both deterministic and probabilistic predictions, include simple bias-correction techniques, corrections inspired by the Kalman filter, regression methods, and the more recently developed analog-based algorithms. These approaches will be compared and contrasted, and strength and weaknesses of each will be discussed.

  15. Predictive value of diminutive colonic adenoma trial: the PREDICT trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenfeld, Philip; Shad, Javaid; Ormseth, Eric; Coyle, Walter; Cash, Brooks; Butler, James; Schindler, William; Kikendall, Walter J; Furlong, Christopher; Sobin, Leslie H; Hobbs, Christine M; Cruess, David; Rex, Douglas

    2003-05-01

    Diminutive adenomas (1-9 mm in diameter) are frequently found during colon cancer screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS). This trial assessed the predictive value of these diminutive adenomas for advanced adenomas in the proximal colon. In a multicenter, prospective cohort trial, we matched 200 patients with normal FS and 200 patients with diminutive adenomas on FS for age and gender. All patients underwent colonoscopy. The presence of advanced adenomas (adenoma >or= 10 mm in diameter, villous adenoma, adenoma with high grade dysplasia, and colon cancer) and adenomas (any size) was recorded. Before colonoscopy, patients completed questionnaires about risk factors for adenomas. The prevalence of advanced adenomas in the proximal colon was similar in patients with diminutive adenomas and patients with normal FS (6% vs. 5.5%, respectively) (relative risk, 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-2.6). Diminutive adenomas on FS did not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon: sensitivity, 52% (95% CI, 32%-72%); specificity, 50% (95% CI, 49%-51%); positive predictive value, 6% (95% CI, 4%-8%); and negative predictive value, 95% (95% CI, 92%-97%). Male gender (odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.61) was associated with an increased risk of proximal colon adenomas. Diminutive adenomas on sigmoidoscopy may not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon.

  16. Reward positivity: Reward prediction error or salience prediction error?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heydari, Sepideh; Holroyd, Clay B

    2016-08-01

    The reward positivity is a component of the human ERP elicited by feedback stimuli in trial-and-error learning and guessing tasks. A prominent theory holds that the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal that is sensitive to outcome valence, being larger for unexpected positive events relative to unexpected negative events (Holroyd & Coles, 2002). Although the theory has found substantial empirical support, most of these studies have utilized either monetary or performance feedback to test the hypothesis. However, in apparent contradiction to the theory, a recent study found that unexpected physical punishments also elicit the reward positivity (Talmi, Atkinson, & El-Deredy, 2013). The authors of this report argued that the reward positivity reflects a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. To investigate this finding further, in the present study participants navigated a virtual T maze and received feedback on each trial under two conditions. In a reward condition, the feedback indicated that they would either receive a monetary reward or not and in a punishment condition the feedback indicated that they would receive a small shock or not. We found that the feedback stimuli elicited a typical reward positivity in the reward condition and an apparently delayed reward positivity in the punishment condition. Importantly, this signal was more positive to the stimuli that predicted the omission of a possible punishment relative to stimuli that predicted a forthcoming punishment, which is inconsistent with the salience hypothesis. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  17. Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

  18. Weighted-Average Least Squares Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magnus, Jan R.; Wang, Wendun; Zhang, Xinyu

    2016-01-01

    Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty from the

  19. Potential Predictability and Prediction Skill for Southern Peru Summertime Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    WU, S.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.; Mortensen, E.; Block, P. J.; Montgomery, R. J.; De Pierola, J. N.; Sanchez, C.

    2016-12-01

    The central Andes receive over 50% of annual climatological rainfall during the short period of January-March. This summertime rainfall exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability, including severe drought events that incur devastating societal impacts and cause agricultural communities and mining facilities to compete for limited water resources. An improved seasonal prediction skill of summertime rainfall would aid in water resource planning and allocation across the water-limited southern Peru. While various underlying mechanisms have been proposed by past studies for the drivers of interannual variability in summertime rainfall across southern Peru, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extratropical forcings, operational forecasts continue to be largely based on rudimentary ENSO-based indices, such as NINO3.4, justifying further exploration of predictive skill. In order to bridge this gap between the understanding of driving mechanisms and the operational forecast, we performed systematic studies on the predictability and prediction skill of southern Peru summertime rainfall by constructing statistical forecast models using best available weather station and reanalysis datasets. At first, by assuming the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of summertime rainfall are predictable, the potential predictability skill was evaluated for southern Peru. Then, we constructed a simple regression model, based on the time series of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and a more advanced Linear Inverse Model (LIM), based on the EOFs of tropical ocean SSTs and large-scale atmosphere variables from reanalysis. Our results show that the LIM model consistently outperforms the more rudimentary regression models on the forecast skill of domain averaged precipitation index and individual station indices. The improvement of forecast correlation skill ranges from 10% to over 200% for different

  20. Prediction of GNSS satellite clocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broederbauer, V.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis deals with the characterisation and prediction of GNSS-satellite-clocks. A prerequisite to develop powerful algorithms for the prediction of clock-corrections is the thorough study of the behaviour of the different clock-types of the satellites. In this context the predicted part of the IGU-clock-corrections provided by the Analysis Centers (ACs) of the IGS was compared to the IGS-Rapid-clock solutions to determine reasonable estimates of the quality of already existing well performing predictions. For the shortest investigated interval (three hours) all ACs obtain almost the same accuracy of 0,1 to 0,4 ns. For longer intervals the individual predictions results start to diverge. Thus, for a 12-hours- interval the differences range from nearly 10 ns (GFZ, CODE) until up to some 'tens of ns'. Based on the estimated clock corrections provided via the IGS Rapid products a simple quadratic polynomial turns out to be sufficient to describe the time series of Rubidium-clocks. On the other hand Cesium-clocks show a periodical behaviour (revolution period) with an amplitude of up to 6 ns. A clear correlation between these amplitudes and the Sun elevation angle above the orbital planes can be demonstrated. The variability of the amplitudes is supposed to be caused by temperature-variations affecting the oscillator. To account for this periodical behaviour a quadratic polynomial with an additional sinus-term was finally chosen as prediction model both for the Cesium as well as for the Rubidium clocks. The three polynomial-parameters as well as amplitude and phase shift of the periodic term are estimated within a least-square-adjustment by means of program GNSS-VC/static. Input-data are time series of the observed part of the IGU clock corrections. With the estimated parameters clock-corrections are predicted for various durations. The mean error of the prediction of Rubidium-clock-corrections for an interval of six hours reaches up to 1,5 ns. For the 12-hours

  1. Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

  2. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart SHIPP

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backwards in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many ‘illusory’ instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forwards and backwards pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry – that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions – has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic ‘canonical microcircuit’ and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b rapid technical advances made

  3. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipp, Stewart

    2016-01-01

    Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backward in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many 'illusory' instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc.) is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forward and backward pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry - that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions - has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy) formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic 'canonical microcircuit' and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a) updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b) rapid technical advances made possible by transgenic neural

  4. Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

    2012-01-01

    Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

  5. PREDICTING DEMAND FOR COTTON YARNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SALAS-MOLINA Francisco

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Predicting demand for fashion products is crucial for textile manufacturers. In an attempt to both avoid out-of-stocks and minimize holding costs, different forecasting techniques are used by production managers. Both linear and non-linear time-series analysis techniques are suitable options for forecasting purposes. However, demand for fashion products presents a number of particular characteristics such as short life-cycles, short selling seasons, high impulse purchasing, high volatility, low predictability, tremendous product variety and a high number of stock-keeping-units. In this paper, we focus on predicting demand for cotton yarns using a non-linear forecasting technique that has been fruitfully used in many areas, namely, random forests. To this end, we first identify a number of explanatory variables to be used as a key input to forecasting using random forests. We consider explanatory variables usually labeled either as causal variables, when some correlation is expected between them and the forecasted variable, or as time-series features, when extracted from time-related attributes such as seasonality. Next, we evaluate the predictive power of each variable by means of out-of-sample accuracy measurement. We experiment on a real data set from a textile company in Spain. The numerical results show that simple time-series features present more predictive ability than other more sophisticated explanatory variables.

  6. Lightning prediction using radiosonde data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weng, L.Y.; Bin Omar, J.; Siah, Y.K.; Bin Zainal Abidin, I.; Ahmad, S.K. [Univ. Tenaga, Darul Ehsan (Malaysia). College of Engineering

    2008-07-01

    Lightning is a natural phenomenon in tropical regions. Malaysia experiences very high cloud-to-ground lightning density, posing both health and economic concerns to individuals and industries. In the commercial sector, power lines, telecommunication towers and buildings are most frequently hit by lightning. In the event that a power line is hit and the protection system fails, industries which rely on that power line would cease operations temporarily, resulting in significant monetary loss. Current technology is unable to prevent lightning occurrences. However, the ability to predict lightning would significantly reduce damages from direct and indirect lightning strikes. For that reason, this study focused on developing a method to predict lightning with radiosonde data using only a simple back propagation neural network model written in C code. The study was performed at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA). In this model, the parameters related to wind were disregarded. Preliminary results indicate that this method shows some positive results in predicting lighting. However, a larger dataset is needed in order to obtain more accurate predictions. It was concluded that future work should include wind parameters to fully capture all properties for lightning formation, subsequently its prediction. 8 refs., 5 figs.

  7. Prediction, Regression and Critical Realism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Petter

    2004-01-01

    This paper considers the possibility of prediction in land use planning, and the use of statistical research methods in analyses of relationships between urban form and travel behaviour. Influential writers within the tradition of critical realism reject the possibility of predicting social...... phenomena. This position is fundamentally problematic to public planning. Without at least some ability to predict the likely consequences of different proposals, the justification for public sector intervention into market mechanisms will be frail. Statistical methods like regression analyses are commonly...... seen as necessary in order to identify aggregate level effects of policy measures, but are questioned by many advocates of critical realist ontology. Using research into the relationship between urban structure and travel as an example, the paper discusses relevant research methods and the kinds...

  8. Intelligent Prediction of Ship Maneuvering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslaw Lacki

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the author presents an idea of the intelligent ship maneuvering prediction system with the usage of neuroevolution. This may be also be seen as the ship handling system that simulates a learning process of an autonomous control unit, created with artificial neural network. The control unit observes input signals and calculates the values of required parameters of the vessel maneuvering in confined waters. In neuroevolution such units are treated as individuals in population of artificial neural networks, which through environmental sensing and evolutionary algorithms learn to perform given task efficiently. The main task of the system is to learn continuously and predict the values of a navigational parameters of the vessel after certain amount of time, regarding an influence of its environment. The result of a prediction may occur as a warning to navigator to aware him about incoming threat.

  9. Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Wiktorowicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

  10. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  11. BBN predictions for 4He

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, T.P.

    1993-01-01

    The standard model of the hot big bang assumes a homogeneous and isotropic Universe with gravity described by General Relativity and strong and electroweak interactions described by the Standard Model of particle physics. The hot big bang model makes the unavoidable prediction that the production of primordial elements occurred about one minute after the big band (referred to as big bang or primordial nucleosynthesis BBN). This review concerns the range of the primordial abundance of 4 He as predicted by standard BBN (i.e., primordial nucleosynthesis assuming a homogeneous distribution of baryons). In it the author discusses: (1) Uncertainties in the calculation of Y p (the mass fraction of primordial 4 He), (2) The expected range of Y p , (3) How the predictions stack up against the latest observations, and (4) The latest BBN bounds on Ω B h 2 and N ν . 13 refs., 2 figs

  12. Human motion simulation predictive dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Abdel-Malek, Karim

    2013-01-01

    Simulate realistic human motion in a virtual world with an optimization-based approach to motion prediction. With this approach, motion is governed by human performance measures, such as speed and energy, which act as objective functions to be optimized. Constraints on joint torques and angles are imposed quite easily. Predicting motion in this way allows one to use avatars to study how and why humans move the way they do, given specific scenarios. It also enables avatars to react to infinitely many scenarios with substantial autonomy. With this approach it is possible to predict dynamic motion without having to integrate equations of motion -- rather than solving equations of motion, this approach solves for a continuous time-dependent curve characterizing joint variables (also called joint profiles) for every degree of freedom. Introduces rigorous mathematical methods for digital human modelling and simulation Focuses on understanding and representing spatial relationships (3D) of biomechanics Develops an i...

  13. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  14. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  15. Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan

    2018-01-01

    In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

  16. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  17. Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna L Buczak

    Full Text Available In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico during four dengue seasons: 1 peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2 peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred; and 3 total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date.Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1 two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2 additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3 simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations.Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week.The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

  18. Dinosaur fossils predict body temperatures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James F Gillooly

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Perhaps the greatest mystery surrounding dinosaurs concerns whether they were endotherms, ectotherms, or some unique intermediate form. Here we present a model that yields estimates of dinosaur body temperature based on ontogenetic growth trajectories obtained from fossil bones. The model predicts that dinosaur body temperatures increased with body mass from approximately 25 degrees C at 12 kg to approximately 41 degrees C at 13,000 kg. The model also successfully predicts observed increases in body temperature with body mass for extant crocodiles. These results provide direct evidence that dinosaurs were reptiles that exhibited inertial homeothermy.

  19. Calorimetry end-point predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes a portion of the work presently in progress at Rocky Flats in the field of calorimetry. In particular, calorimetry end-point predictions are outlined. The problems associated with end-point predictions and the progress made in overcoming these obstacles are discussed. The two major problems, noise and an accurate description of the heat function, are dealt with to obtain the most accurate results. Data are taken from an actual calorimeter and are processed by means of three different noise reduction techniques. The processed data are then utilized by one to four algorithms, depending on the accuracy desired to determined the end-point

  20. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  1. Can we predict nuclear proliferation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tertrais, Bruno

    2011-01-01

    The author aims at improving nuclear proliferation prediction capacities, i.e. the capacities to identify countries susceptible to acquire nuclear weapons, to interpret sensitive activities, and to assess nuclear program modalities. He first proposes a retrospective assessment of counter-proliferation actions since 1945. Then, based on academic studies, he analyzes what causes and motivates proliferation, with notably the possibility of existence of a chain phenomenon (mechanisms driving from one program to another). He makes recommendations for a global approach to proliferation prediction, and proposes proliferation indices and indicators

  2. Analyzing Process Quality of Early Childhood Education with Many Facet Rash Measurement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basturk, Ramazan; Isikoglu, Nesrin

    2008-01-01

    Quality of early childhood education institutions specifically, dimensions of process quality should be evaluated. Purpose of this study is to analyze process quality of early childhood education by using many-facet Rasch measurement model (MFRM). In this study, data were collected from twelve early childhood education institutions by four…

  3. Rash with DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System Use in Bilateral Reduction Mammoplasty: A Case Series

    OpenAIRE

    R. W. Knackstedt; J. A. Dixon; P. J. O’Neill; F. A. Herrera

    2015-01-01

    Background. Bilateral reduction mammoplasty is a common plastic surgery procedure that can be complicated by unfavorable scar formation along incision sites. Surgical adhesives can be utilized as an alternative or as an adjunct to conventional suture closures to help achieve good wound tension and provide an adequate barrier with excellent cosmesis. The recently introduced DERMABOND PRINEO Skin Closure System Skin Closure System combines the skin adhesive 2-octyl cyanoacrylate with a self-ad...

  4. A brucellosis case presenting with vesicular and maculopapular rash and febrile neutropenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selmin Dirgen Çaylak

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Brucellosis is a systemic disease in which all kind of tissues and organs can be affected. Brucellosis may present with different symptoms and symptoms are non-specific. A broad spectrum of clinical manifestations can be seen, therefore diagnosis can be difficult. Cutaneous complications and febrile neutropenia have been rarely reported. Here, a rare brucellosis case was reported that he applied with fever, skin eruption and neutropenia. We emphasized that especially in endemic areas brucellosis should always be kept on mind in the differential diagnosis of patient with skin eruption and febril neutropenia.J Microbiol Infect Dis 2014;4(1: 39-41

  5. May 2015 pulmonary case of the month: pneumonia with a rash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robbins RA

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available No abstract available. Article truncated at 150 words. History of Present Illness: A 77-year-old man underwent a thoracic CT scan for follow up of a known thoracic aneurysm. However, he had been feeling tired for about a week with a cough, night sweats and fever. He had no shortness of breath, wheezing or known history of lung disease. Past Medical History, Social History and Family History: He has a history of hypertension and a known thoracic aortic aneurysm. There was a surgical repair of his right clavicle after a motor vehicle accident. He is single and has lived in Arizona for over 50 years. He just returned from a trip to California where he visited Disneyland. He does not smoke. Family history is noncontributory. Current Medications: dutasteride, levothyroxine, atorvastatin. Physical Examination: His physical examination was reported as unremarkable. SpO2 was 95% on room air. Which of the following is appropriate at this time? 1. Begin empiric antibiotics; 2. ...

  6. October 2014 critical care case of the month: a skin rash in the ICU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raschke RA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available No abstract available. Abstract truncated after first page. History of Present Illness: A 28 year old man was admitted to an outside hospital with an ethylene glycol overdose in an apparent suicide attempt. At that time the patient was delirious and vomiting. He had a severe metabolic acidosis and a creatinine of 2.1 mg/dL. He was intubated, a nasogastric tube was placed, and he was transferred to the toxicology service. PMH, FH, SH: There was no significant past medical history. Family history was noncontributory. He was a nonsmoker who recently had a fight with his girlfriend prompting the suicide attempt. Physical Examination: Vital signs were stable and he was sedated and nasally intubated receiving mechanical ventilation. There were no other significant findings on physical examination. Which of the following can be used for ethylene glycol poisoning? 1. Ethanol; 2. Fomezipole; 3. Hemodialysis; 4. Pyridoxine; 5. All of the above ...

  7. A Teenager With Sacroileitis, Rash and Fever Caused by Streptobacillus moniliformis Bacteremia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Navneet K; Craft, David; Crook, Tonya; Dossett, John

    2016-12-01

    We report a rare case of sacroileitis in a teenager resulting from Streptobacillus moniliformis bacteremia, identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight. We discuss the challenges of making this diagnosis and review the literature on rat bite fever.

  8. Mucocutaneous Leishmaniasis/HIV Coinfection Presented as a Diffuse Desquamative Rash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Almeida Rosa da Silva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Leishmaniasis is an infectious disease that is endemic in tropical areas and in the Mediterranean. This condition spreads to 98 countries in four continents, surpassing 12 million infected individuals, with 350 million people at risk of infection. This disease is characterized by a wide spectrum of clinical syndromes, caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania, with various animal reservoirs, such as rodents, dogs, wolves, foxes, and even humans. Transmission occurs through a vector, a sandfly of the genus Lutzomyia. There are three main clinical forms of leishmaniasis: visceral leishmaniasis, cutaneous leishmaniasis, and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis. The wide spectrum of nonvisceral forms includes: localized cutaneous leishmaniasis, a papular lesion that progresses to ulceration with granular base and a large framed board; diffuse cutaneous leishmaniasis; mucocutaneous leishmaniasis, which can cause disfiguring and mutilating injuries of the nasal cavity, pharynx, and larynx. Leishmaniasis/HIV coinfection is considered an emerging problem in several countries, including Brazil, where, despite the growing number of cases, a problem of late diagnosis occurs. Clinically, the cases of leishmaniasis associated with HIV infection may demonstrate unusual aspects, such as extensive and destructive lesions. This study aims to report a case of mucocutaneous leishmaniasis/HIV coinfection with atypical presentation of diffuse desquamative eruption and nasopharyngeal involvement.

  9. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Data from a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) demonstrating using predictive computational...

  10. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  11. Predictability of weather and climate

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Palmer, Tim; Hagedorn, Renate

    2006-01-01

    ... and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-quality chapter autho...

  12. Evaluation of environmental impact predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunningham, P.A.; Adams, S.M.; Kumar, K.D.

    1977-01-01

    An analysis and evaluation of the ecological monitoring program at the Surry Nuclear Power Plant showed that predictions of potential environmental impact made in the Final Environmental Statement (FES), which were based on generally accepted ecological principles, were not completely substantiated by environmental monitoring data. The Surry Nuclear Power Plant (Units 1 and 2) was chosen for study because of the facility's relatively continuous operating history and the availability of environmental data adequate for analysis. Preoperational and operational fish monitoring data were used to assess the validity of the FES prediction that fish would congregate in the thermal plume during winter months and would avoid the plume during summer months. Analysis of monitoring data showed that fish catch per unit effort (CPE) was generally high in the thermal plume during winter months; however, the highest fish catches occurred in the plume during the summer. Possible explanations for differences between the FES prediction and results observed in analysis of monitoring data are discussed, and general recommendations are outlined for improving impact assessment predictions

  13. Using Predictability for Lexical Segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çöltekin, Çağrı

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates a strategy based on predictability of consecutive sub-lexical units in learning to segment a continuous speech stream into lexical units using computational modeling and simulations. Lexical segmentation is one of the early challenges during language acquisition, and it has been studied extensively through psycholinguistic experiments as well as computational methods. However, despite strong empirical evidence, the explicit use of predictability of basic sub-lexical units in models of segmentation is underexplored. This paper presents an incremental computational model of lexical segmentation for exploring the usefulness of predictability for lexical segmentation. We show that the predictability cue is a strong cue for segmentation. Contrary to earlier reports in the literature, the strategy yields state-of-the-art segmentation performance with an incremental computational model that uses only this particular cue in a cognitively plausible setting. The paper also reports an in-depth analysis of the model, investigating the conditions affecting the usefulness of the strategy. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  14. Solution Patterns Predicting Pythagorean Triples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezenweani, Ugwunna Louis

    2013-01-01

    Pythagoras Theorem is an old mathematical treatise that has traversed the school curricula from secondary to tertiary levels. The patterns it produced are quite interesting that many researchers have tried to generate a kind of predictive approach to identifying triples. Two attempts, namely Diophantine equation and Brahmagupta trapezium presented…

  15. Predicting response to epigenetic therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Treppendahl, Marianne B; Sommer Kristensen, Lasse; Grønbæk, Kirsten

    2014-01-01

    of good pretreatment predictors of response is of great value. Many clinical parameters and molecular targets have been tested in preclinical and clinical studies with varying results, leaving room for optimization. Here we provide an overview of markers that may predict the efficacy of FDA- and EMA...

  16. Predicting Volleyball Serve-Reception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, Ana; Zaal, Frank T J M; Fonseca, Sofia; Araujo, Duarte

    2016-01-01

    Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver's actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four

  17. Prediction of electric vehicle penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    The object of this report is to present the current market status of plug-in-electric : vehicles (PEVs) and to predict their future penetration within the world and U.S. : markets. The sales values for 2016 show a strong year of PEV sales both in the...

  18. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments.

  19. Framework for Traffic Congestion Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zaki, J.F.W.; Ali-Eldin, A.M.T.; Hussein, S.E.; Saraya, S.F.; Areed, F.F.

    2016-01-01

    Traffic Congestion is a complex dilemma facing most major cities. It has undergone a lot of research since the early 80s in an attempt to predict traffic in the short-term. Recently, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) became an integral part of traffic research which helped in modeling and

  20. Predicting Character Traits Through Reddit

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    and even employers (Res). Companies like Netflix also use personality classification algorithms in order to provide users with predictions of movies...science behind the netflix algorithms that decide what to watch next, August 2013. Reza Zafarani and Huan Liu. Evaluation without ground truth in social media research. Communications Of The ACM, 58(6):54–60, June 2015. 12

  1. Prediction of natural gas consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, R.L.; Walton, D.J.; Hoskins, W.D.

    1993-01-01

    Distributors of natural gas need to predict future consumption in order to purchase a sufficient supply on contract. Distributors that offer their customers equal payment plans need to predict the consumption of each customer 12 months in advance. Estimates of previous consumption are often used for months when meters are inaccessible, or bimonthly-read meters. Existing methods of predicting natural gas consumption, and a proposed new method for each local region are discussed. The proposed model distinguishes the consumption load factors from summer to other seasons by attempting to adjust them by introducing two parameters. The problem is then reduced to a quadratic programming problem. However, since it is not necessary to use both parameters simultaneously, the problem can be solved with a simple iterative procedure. Results show that the new model can improve the two-equation model to a certain scale. The adjustment to heat load factor can reduce the error of prediction markedly while that to base load factor influences the error marginally. 3 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs

  2. Prediction of Subsidence Depression Development

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Doležalová, Hana; Kajzar, Vlastimil

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 4 (2017), s. 208-214 E-ISSN 2391-9361. [Cross-border Exchange of Experience in Production Engineering Using Principles of Mathematics. Rybnik, 07.06.2017-09.06.2017] Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : undermining * prediction * regression analysis Subject RIV: DH - Mining, incl. Coal Mining OBOR OECD: Mining and mineral processing

  3. Bankruptcy Prediction with Rough Sets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); V. Popova (Viara)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThe bankruptcy prediction problem can be considered an or dinal classification problem. The classical theory of Rough Sets describes objects by discrete attributes, and does not take into account the order- ing of the attributes values. This paper proposes a modification of the Rough Set

  4. Climate Prediction Center - monthly Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Outlooks monthly Climate Outlooks Banner OFFICIAL Forecasts June 2018 [UPDATED MONTHLY FORECASTS SERVICE ) Canonical Correlation Analysis ECCA - Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis Optimal Climate Normals

  5. Climate Prediction Center - Site Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Means Bulletins Annual Winter Stratospheric Ozone Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (Most Recent) Climate (Hazards Outlook) Climate Assessment: Dec. 1999-Feb. 2000 (Seasonal) Climate Assessment: Mar-May 2000

  6. Predictive medical information and underwriting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, John H

    2007-01-01

    Medical underwriting involves the application of actuarial science by analyzing medical information to predict the future risk of a claim. The objective is that individuals with like risk are treated in a like manner so that the premium paid is proportional to the risk of future claim.

  7. Can Creativity Predict Cognitive Reserve?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmiero, Massimiliano; Di Giacomo, Dina; Passafiume, Domenico

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive reserve relies on the ability to effectively cope with aging and brain damage by using alternate processes to approach tasks when standard approaches are no longer available. In this study, the issue if creativity can predict cognitive reserve has been explored. Forty participants (mean age: 61 years) filled out: the Cognitive Reserve…

  8. A prediction for bubbling geometries

    OpenAIRE

    Okuda, Takuya

    2007-01-01

    We study the supersymmetric circular Wilson loops in N=4 Yang-Mills theory. Their vacuum expectation values are computed in the parameter region that admits smooth bubbling geometry duals. The results are a prediction for the supergravity action evaluated on the bubbling geometries for Wilson loops.

  9. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-01-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  10. Predicting severity of paranoid schizophrenia

    OpenAIRE

    Kolesnichenko Elena Vladimirovna

    2015-01-01

    Clinical symptoms, course and outcomes of paranoid schizophrenia are polymorphic. 206 cases of paranoid schizophrenia were investigated. Clinical predictors were collected from hospital records and interviews. Quantitative assessment of the severity of schizophrenia as special indexes was used. Schizoid, epileptoid, psychasthenic and conformal accentuation of personality in the premorbid, early onset of psychosis, paranoid and hallucinatory-paranoid variants of onset predicted more expressed ...

  11. Predictability of Mobile Phone Associations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2010-01-01

    Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how the predi...... representation, and general behavior. This is of vital interest in the development of context-aware services which rely on forecasting based on mobile phone sensors.......Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how...... the predictability of mobile sensors, acting as proxies for humans, change with time scale and sensor type such as GSM and WLAN. Applying recent information theoretic methods, it is demonstrated that an upper bound on predictability is relatively high for all sensors given the complete history (typically above 90...

  12. Numerical prediction of slamming loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seng, Sopheak; Jensen, Jørgen J; Pedersen, Preben T

    2012-01-01

    It is important to include the contribution of the slamming-induced response in the structural design of large vessels with a significant bow flare. At the same time it is a challenge to develop rational tools to determine the slamming-induced loads and the prediction of their occurrence. Today i...

  13. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  14. Prediction of Malaysian monthly GDP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei; Yeing, Pan Wei

    2015-12-01

    The paper attempts to use a method based on multivariate power-normal distribution to predict the Malaysian Gross Domestic Product next month. Letting r(t) be the vector consisting of the month-t values on m selected macroeconomic variables, and GDP, we model the month-(t+1) GDP to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1),…,r(t-l+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a [(m+1)l+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. The 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution may be used to form an out-of sample prediction interval. This interval together with the mean of the conditional distribution may be used to predict the month-(t+1) GDP. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), estimated coverage probability and average length of the prediction interval are used as the criterions for selecting the suitable lag value l-1 and the subset from a pool of 17 macroeconomic variables. It is found that the relatively better models would be those of which 2 ≤ l ≤ 3, and involving one or two of the macroeconomic variables given by Market Indicative Yield, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Import Trade.

  15. Cast iron - a predictable material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg C. Sturm

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available High strength compacted graphite iron (CGI or alloyed cast iron components are substituting previously used non-ferrous castings in automotive power train applications. The mechanical engineering industry has recognized the value in substituting forged or welded structures with stiff and light-weight cast iron castings. New products such as wind turbines have opened new markets for an entire suite of highly reliable ductile iron cast components. During the last 20 years, casting process simulation has developed from predicting hot spots and solidification to an integral assessment tool for foundries for the entire manufacturing route of castings. The support of the feeding related layout of the casting is still one of the most important duties for casting process simulation. Depending on the alloy poured, different feeding behaviors and self-feeding capabilities need to be considered to provide a defect free casting. Therefore, it is not enough to base the prediction of shrinkage defects solely on hot spots derived from temperature fields. To be able to quantitatively predict these defects, solidification simulation had to be combined with density and mass transport calculations, in order to evaluate the impact of the solidification morphology on the feeding behavior as well as to consider alloy dependent feeding ranges. For cast iron foundries, the use of casting process simulation has become an important instrument to predict the robustness and reliability of their processes, especially since the influence of alloying elements, melting practice and metallurgy need to be considered to quantify the special shrinkage and solidification behavior of cast iron. This allows the prediction of local structures, phases and ultimately the local mechanical properties of cast irons, to asses casting quality in the foundry but also to make use of this quantitative information during design of the casting. Casting quality issues related to thermally driven

  16. HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

    2018-02-01

    Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior).

  17. Ocean eddies and climate predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirtman, Ben P; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo

    2017-12-01

    A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.

  18. Predicting steam generator crevice chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, G.; Strati, G.

    2006-01-01

    'Full text:' Corrosion of steam cycle components produces insoluble material, mostly iron oxides, that are transported to the steam generator (SG) via the feedwater and deposited on internal surfaces such as the tubes, tube support plates and the tubesheet. The build up of these corrosion products over time can lead to regions of restricted flow with water chemistry that may be significantly different, and potentially more corrosive to SG tube material, than the bulk steam generator water chemistry. The aim of the present work is to predict SG crevice chemistry using experimentation and modelling as part of AECL's overall strategy for steam generator life management. Hideout-return experiments are performed under CANDU steam generator conditions to assess the accumulation of impurities in hideout, and return from, model crevices. The results are used to validate the ChemSolv model that predicts steam generator crevice impurity concentrations, and high temperature pH, based on process parameters (e.g., heat flux, primary side temperature) and blowdown water chemistry. The model has been incorporated into ChemAND, AECL's system health monitoring software for chemistry monitoring, analysis and diagnostics that has been installed at two domestic and one international CANDU station. ChemAND provides the station chemists with the only method to predict SG crevice chemistry. In one recent application, the software has been used to evaluate the crevice chemistry based on the elevated, but balanced, SG bulk water impurity concentrations present during reactor startup, in order to reduce hold times. The present paper will describe recent hideout-return experiments that are used for the validation of the ChemSolv model, station experience using the software, and improvements to predict the crevice electrochemical potential that will permit station staff to ensure that the SG tubes are in the 'safe operating zone' predicted by Lu (AECL). (author)

  19. Predicting outcome of status epilepticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitinger, M; Kalss, G; Rohracher, A; Pilz, G; Novak, H; Höfler, J; Deak, I; Kuchukhidze, G; Dobesberger, J; Wakonig, A; Trinka, E

    2015-08-01

    Status epilepticus (SE) is a frequent neurological emergency complicated by high mortality and often poor functional outcome in survivors. The aim of this study was to review available clinical scores to predict outcome. Literature review. PubMed Search terms were "score", "outcome", and "status epilepticus" (April 9th 2015). Publications with abstracts available in English, no other language restrictions, or any restrictions concerning investigated patients were included. Two scores were identified: "Status Epilepticus Severity Score--STESS" and "Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE--EMSE". A comprehensive comparison of test parameters concerning performance, options, and limitations was performed. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE allows detailed individualization of risk factors and is significantly superior to STESS in a retrospective explorative study. In particular, EMSE is very good at detection of good and bad outcome, whereas STESS detecting bad outcome is limited by a ceiling effect and uncertainty of correct cutoff value. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE can be adapted to different regions in the world and to advances in medicine, as new data emerge. In addition, we designed a reporting standard for status epilepticus to enhance acquisition and communication of outcome relevant data. A data acquisition sheet used from patient admission in emergency room, from the EEG lab to intensive care unit, is provided for optimized data collection. Status Epilepticus Severity Score is easy to perform and predicts bad outcome, but has a low predictive value for good outcomes. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE is superior to STESS in predicting good or bad outcome but needs marginally more time to perform. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE may prove very useful for risk stratification in interventional studies and is recommended for individual outcome prediction. Prospective validation in different cohorts is needed for EMSE, whereas

  20. Multiphase, multicomponent phase behavior prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadmohammadi, Younas

    Accurate prediction of phase behavior of fluid mixtures in the chemical industry is essential for designing and operating a multitude of processes. Reliable generalized predictions of phase equilibrium properties, such as pressure, temperature, and phase compositions offer an attractive alternative to costly and time consuming experimental measurements. The main purpose of this work was to assess the efficacy of recently generalized activity coefficient models based on binary experimental data to (a) predict binary and ternary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems, and (b) characterize liquid-liquid equilibrium systems. These studies were completed using a diverse binary VLE database consisting of 916 binary and 86 ternary systems involving 140 compounds belonging to 31 chemical classes. Specifically the following tasks were undertaken: First, a comprehensive assessment of the two common approaches (gamma-phi (gamma-ϕ) and phi-phi (ϕ-ϕ)) used for determining the phase behavior of vapor-liquid equilibrium systems is presented. Both the representation and predictive capabilities of these two approaches were examined, as delineated form internal and external consistency tests of 916 binary systems. For the purpose, the universal quasi-chemical (UNIQUAC) model and the Peng-Robinson (PR) equation of state (EOS) were used in this assessment. Second, the efficacy of recently developed generalized UNIQUAC and the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) for predicting multicomponent VLE systems were investigated. Third, the abilities of recently modified NRTL model (mNRTL2 and mNRTL1) to characterize liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) phase conditions and attributes, including phase stability, miscibility, and consolute point coordinates, were assessed. The results of this work indicate that the ϕ-ϕ approach represents the binary VLE systems considered within three times the error of the gamma-ϕ approach. A similar trend was observed for the for the generalized model predictions using

  1. Branch prediction in the pentium family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fog, Agner

    1998-01-01

    How the branch prediction mechanism in the Pentium has been uncovered with all its quirks, and the incredibly more effective branch prediction in the later versions.......How the branch prediction mechanism in the Pentium has been uncovered with all its quirks, and the incredibly more effective branch prediction in the later versions....

  2. Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

  3. Semen analysis and prediction of natural conception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leushuis, Esther; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Repping, Sjoerd; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; van der Veen, Fulco

    2014-01-01

    Do two semen analyses predict natural conception better than a single semen analysis and will adding the results of repeated semen analyses to a prediction model for natural pregnancy improve predictions? A second semen analysis does not add helpful information for predicting natural conception

  4. Time-Predictable Virtual Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puffitsch, Wolfgang; Schoeberl, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Virtual memory is an important feature of modern computer architectures. For hard real-time systems, memory protection is a particularly interesting feature of virtual memory. However, current memory management units are not designed for time-predictability and therefore cannot be used...... in such systems. This paper investigates the requirements on virtual memory from the perspective of hard real-time systems and presents the design of a time-predictable memory management unit. Our evaluation shows that the proposed design can be implemented efficiently. The design allows address translation...... and address range checking in constant time of two clock cycles on a cache miss. This constant time is in strong contrast to the possible cost of a miss in a translation look-aside buffer in traditional virtual memory organizations. Compared to a platform without a memory management unit, these two additional...

  5. Predicting responses from Rasch measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linacre, John M

    2010-01-01

    There is a growing family of Rasch models for polytomous observations. Selecting a suitable model for an existing dataset, estimating its parameters and evaluating its fit is now routine. Problems arise when the model parameters are to be estimated from the current data, but used to predict future data. In particular, ambiguities in the nature of the current data, or overfit of the model to the current dataset, may mean that better fit to the current data may lead to worse fit to future data. The predictive power of several Rasch and Rasch-related models are discussed in the context of the Netflix Prize. Rasch-related models are proposed based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Boltzmann Machines.

  6. Prediction of dislocation boundary characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Grethe

    Plastic deformation of both fcc and bcc metals of medium to high stacking fault energy is known to result in dislocation patterning in the form of cells and extended planar dislocation boundaries. The latter align with specific crystallographic planes, which depend on the crystallographic......) and it is found that to a large extent the dislocations screen each other’s elastic stress fields [3]. The present contribution aims at advancing the previous theoretical analysis of a boundary on a known crystallographic plane to actual prediction of this plane as well as other boundary characteristics....... Crystal plasticity calculations combined with the hypothesis that these boundaries separate domains with local differences in the slip system activity are introduced to address precise prediction of the experimentally observed boundaries. The presentation will focus on two cases from fcc metals...

  7. Time-Predictable Computer Architecture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schoeberl Martin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Today's general-purpose processors are optimized for maximum throughput. Real-time systems need a processor with both a reasonable and a known worst-case execution time (WCET. Features such as pipelines with instruction dependencies, caches, branch prediction, and out-of-order execution complicate WCET analysis and lead to very conservative estimates. In this paper, we evaluate the issues of current architectures with respect to WCET analysis. Then, we propose solutions for a time-predictable computer architecture. The proposed architecture is evaluated with implementation of some features in a Java processor. The resulting processor is a good target for WCET analysis and still performs well in the average case.

  8. [Predictive factors of anxiety disorders].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domschke, K

    2014-10-01

    Anxiety disorders are among the most frequent mental disorders in Europe (12-month prevalence 14%) and impose a high socioeconomic burden. The pathogenesis of anxiety disorders is complex with an interaction of biological, environmental and psychosocial factors contributing to the overall disease risk (diathesis-stress model). In this article, risk factors for anxiety disorders will be presented on several levels, e.g. genetic factors, environmental factors, gene-environment interactions, epigenetic mechanisms, neuronal networks ("brain fear circuit"), psychophysiological factors (e.g. startle response and CO2 sensitivity) and dimensional/subclinical phenotypes of anxiety (e.g. anxiety sensitivity and behavioral inhibition), and critically discussed regarding their potential predictive value. The identification of factors predictive of anxiety disorders will possibly allow for effective preventive measures or early treatment interventions, respectively, and reduce the individual patient's suffering as well as the overall socioeconomic burden of anxiety disorders.

  9. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    -trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE......) is more robust than standard Monte Carlo search. In the second approach for reconstruction of C-traces, an exact branch and bound algorithm has been developed [67, 65]. The model is discrete and makes use of secondary structure predictions, HSE, CN and radius of gyration. We show how to compute good lower...... bounds for partial structures very fast. Using these lower bounds, we are able to find global minimum structures in a huge conformational space in reasonable time. We show that many of these global minimum structures are of good quality compared to the native structure. Our branch and bound algorithm...

  10. Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

  11. Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

  12. Shoulder Dystocia: Prediction and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Hill, Meghan G; Cohen, Wayne R

    2016-01-01

    Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury.

  13. Shoulder dystocia: prediction and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Meghan G; Cohen, Wayne R

    2016-01-01

    Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury.

  14. Black holes, singularities and predictability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wald, R.M.

    1984-01-01

    The paper favours the view that singularities may play a central role in quantum gravity. The author reviews the arguments leading to the conclusion, that in the process of black hole formation and evaporation, an initial pure state evolves to a final density matrix, thus signaling a breakdown in ordinary quantum dynamical evolution. Some related issues dealing with predictability in the dynamical evolution, are also discussed. (U.K.)

  15. Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

  16. The Clinical Prediction of Dangerousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-05-01

    8217 8 ings. Szasz (1963) has argued persuasively that clinical predictions of future dangerous behavior are unfairly focused on the mentally ill...Persons labeled paranoid, Szasz states, are readily commitable, while highly dangerous drunken drivers are not. Indeed, dangerousness such as that...Psychology, 31, 492-494. Szasz , T. (1963). Law, liberty and psychiatry. New York: Macmillan. Taft, R. (1955). The ability to judge people. Psychological

  17. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  18. Are Some Semantic Changes Predictable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schousboe, Steen

    2010-01-01

      Historical linguistics is traditionally concerned with phonology and syntax. With the exception of grammaticalization - the development of auxiliary verbs, the syntactic rather than localistic use of prepositions, etc. - semantic change has usually not been described as a result of regular...... developments, but only as specific meaning changes in individual words. This paper will suggest some regularities in semantic change, regularities which, like sound laws, have predictive power and can be tested against recorded languages....

  19. Butterfly valve torque prediction methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldiwany, B.H.; Sharma, V.; Kalsi, M.S.; Wolfe, K.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the Motor-Operated Valve (MOV) Performance Prediction Program, the Electric Power Research Institute has sponsored the development of methodologies for predicting thrust and torque requirements of gate, globe, and butterfly MOVs. This paper presents the methodology that will be used by utilities to calculate the dynamic torque requirements for butterfly valves. The total dynamic torque at any disc position is the sum of the hydrodynamic torque, bearing torque (which is induced by the hydrodynamic force), as well as other small torque components (such as packing torque). The hydrodynamic torque on the valve disc, caused by the fluid flow through the valve, depends on the disc angle, flow velocity, upstream flow disturbances, disc shape, and the disc aspect ratio. The butterfly valve model provides sets of nondimensional flow and torque coefficients that can be used to predict flow rate and hydrodynamic torque throughout the disc stroke and to calculate the required actuation torque and the maximum transmitted torque throughout the opening and closing stroke. The scope of the model includes symmetric and nonsymmetric discs of different shapes and aspects ratios in compressible and incompressible fluid applications under both choked and nonchoked flow conditions. The model features were validated against test data from a comprehensive flowloop and in situ test program. These tests were designed to systematically address the effect of the following parameters on the required torque: valve size, disc shapes and disc aspect ratios, upstream elbow orientation and its proximity, and flow conditions. The applicability of the nondimensional coefficients to valves of different sizes was validated by performing tests on 42-in. valve and a precisely scaled 6-in. model. The butterfly valve model torque predictions were found to bound test data from the flow-loop and in situ testing, as shown in the examples provided in this paper

  20. Prediction of future asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

    2014-12-01

    This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

  1. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well ...

  2. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    OpenAIRE

    Shmueli, Galit; Koppius, Otto

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as well as methods for assessing predictive power. Predictive analytics not only assist in creating practically useful models, they also play an important role alongside explanatory modeling in theory bu...

  3. Seizure Prediction and its Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iasemidis, Leon D.

    2011-01-01

    Epilepsy is characterized by intermittent, paroxysmal, hypersynchronous electrical activity, that may remain localized and/or spread and severely disrupt the brain’s normal multi-task and multi-processing function. Epileptic seizures are the hallmarks of such activity and had been considered unpredictable. It is only recently that research on the dynamics of seizure generation by analysis of the brain’s electrographic activity (EEG) has shed ample light on the predictability of seizures, and illuminated the way to automatic, prospective, long-term prediction of seizures. The ability to issue warnings in real time of impending seizures (e.g., tens of minutes prior to seizure occurrence in the case of focal epilepsy), may lead to novel diagnostic tools and treatments for epilepsy. Applications may range from a simple warning to the patient, in order to avert seizure-associated injuries, to intervention by automatic timely administration of an appropriate stimulus, for example of a chemical nature like an anti-epileptic drug (AED), electromagnetic nature like vagus nerve stimulation (VNS), deep brain stimulation (DBS), transcranial direct current (TDC) or transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), and/or of another nature (e.g., ultrasonic, cryogenic, biofeedback operant conditioning). It is thus expected that seizure prediction could readily become an integral part of the treatment of epilepsy through neuromodulation, especially in the new generation of closed-loop seizure control systems. PMID:21939848

  4. Prediction During Natural Language Comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Roel M; Frank, Stefan L; Nijhof, Annabel D; Hagoort, Peter; van den Bosch, Antal

    2016-06-01

    The notion of prediction is studied in cognitive neuroscience with increasing intensity. We investigated the neural basis of 2 distinct aspects of word prediction, derived from information theory, during story comprehension. We assessed the effect of entropy of next-word probability distributions as well as surprisal A computational model determined entropy and surprisal for each word in 3 literary stories. Twenty-four healthy participants listened to the same 3 stories while their brain activation was measured using fMRI. Reversed speech fragments were presented as a control condition. Brain areas sensitive to entropy were left ventral premotor cortex, left middle frontal gyrus, right inferior frontal gyrus, left inferior parietal lobule, and left supplementary motor area. Areas sensitive to surprisal were left inferior temporal sulcus ("visual word form area"), bilateral superior temporal gyrus, right amygdala, bilateral anterior temporal poles, and right inferior frontal sulcus. We conclude that prediction during language comprehension can occur at several levels of processing, including at the level of word form. Our study exemplifies the power of combining computational linguistics with cognitive neuroscience, and additionally underlines the feasibility of studying continuous spoken language materials with fMRI. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Prediction of Chevrel superconducting phases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savitskij, E.M.; Kiseleva, N.N.

    1978-01-01

    Made is an attempt of predicting the possibility of formation of compounds of Mo 3 Se 4 type structure having critical temperatures of transition into superconducting state more than 4.2 K. Cybernetic method of teaching an electronic computer to form notions is used for prediction. Prediction system constructs logic dependence of forming Chevrel superconducting phase of the Asub(x)Bsub(6)Ssub(8) composition (A being an element of the periodic system; B=Cr, Mo, W, Re) and Asub(x)Bsub(6)Ssub(8) compounds having a critical temperature of more than 4.2 K on the properties of A and B elements. A conclusion is made that W, Re, Cr do not form Chevrel phases of the Asub(x)Bsub(6)Ssub(8) composition as B component. Be, Hg, Ra, B, Ac are the reserve for obtaining Asub(x)Mosub(6)Ssub(8) phases. Agsub(x)Mosub(6)Ssub(8) compound may have a high critical temperature. The ways of a critical temperature increase for Chevrel phases are connected with the search of optimal technological conditions for already known superconducting compounds and also with introduction of impurities fixing a distance between sulfur cubes

  6. Childhood asthma-predictive phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilbert, Theresa W; Mauger, David T; Lemanske, Robert F

    2014-01-01

    Wheezing is a fairly common symptom in early childhood, but only some of these toddlers will experience continued wheezing symptoms in later childhood. The definition of the asthma-predictive phenotype is in children with frequent, recurrent wheezing in early life who have risk factors associated with the continuation of asthma symptoms in later life. Several asthma-predictive phenotypes were developed retrospectively based on large, longitudinal cohort studies; however, it can be difficult to differentiate these phenotypes clinically as the expression of symptoms, and risk factors can change with time. Genetic, environmental, developmental, and host factors and their interactions may contribute to the development, severity, and persistence of the asthma phenotype over time. Key characteristics that distinguish the childhood asthma-predictive phenotype include the following: male sex; a history of wheezing, with lower respiratory tract infections; history of parental asthma; history of atopic dermatitis; eosinophilia; early sensitization to food or aeroallergens; or lower lung function in early life. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  8. Wine Expertise Predicts Taste Phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, John E; Pickering, Gary J

    2012-03-01

    Taste phenotypes have long been studied in relation to alcohol intake, dependence, and family history, with contradictory findings. However, on balance - with appropriate caveats about populations tested, outcomes measured and psychophysical methods used - an association between variation in taste responsiveness and some alcohol behaviors is supported. Recent work suggests super-tasting (operationalized via propylthiouracil (PROP) bitterness) not only associates with heightened response but also with more acute discrimination between stimuli. Here, we explore relationships between food and beverage adventurousness and taste phenotype. A convenience sample of wine drinkers (n=330) were recruited in Ontario and phenotyped for PROP bitterness via filter paper disk. They also filled out a short questionnaire regarding willingness to try new foods, alcoholic beverages and wines as well as level of wine involvement, which was used to classify them as a wine expert (n=110) or wine consumer (n=220). In univariate logisitic models, food adventurousness predicted trying new wines and beverages but not expertise. Likewise, wine expertise predicted willingness to try new wines and beverages but not foods. In separate multivariate logistic models, willingness to try new wines and beverages was predicted by expertise and food adventurousness but not PROP. However, mean PROP bitterness was higher among wine experts than wine consumers, and the conditional distribution functions differed between experts and consumers. In contrast, PROP means and distributions did not differ with food adventurousness. These data suggest individuals may self-select for specific professions based on sensory ability (i.e., an active gene-environment correlation) but phenotype does not explain willingness to try new stimuli.

  9. Predicting mortality from human faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dykiert, Dominika; Bates, Timothy C; Gow, Alan J; Penke, Lars; Starr, John M; Deary, Ian J

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether and to what extent mortality is predictable from facial photographs of older people. High-quality facial photographs of 292 members of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921, taken at the age of about 83 years, were rated in terms of apparent age, health, attractiveness, facial symmetry, intelligence, and well-being by 12 young-adult raters. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study associations between these ratings and mortality during a 7-year follow-up period. All ratings had adequate reliability. Concurrent validity was found for facial symmetry and intelligence (as determined by correlations with actual measures of fluctuating asymmetry in the faces and Raven Standard Progressive Matrices score, respectively), but not for the other traits. Age as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, was a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% confidence interval = 1.12-1.65) and remained significant even after controlling for concurrent, objectively measured health and cognitive ability, and the other ratings. Health as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, significantly predicted mortality (hazard ratio = 0.81, 95% confidence interval = 0.67-0.99) but not after adjusting for rated age or objectively measured health and cognition. Rated attractiveness, symmetry, intelligence, and well-being were not significantly associated with mortality risk. Rated age of the face is a significant predictor of mortality risk among older people, with predictive value over and above that of objective or rated health status and cognitive ability.

  10. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-09-01

    Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

  11. Prediction and imitation in speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara eGambi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that intra- and inter-speaker variability in speech are correlated. Interlocutors have been shown to converge on various phonetic dimensions. In addition, speakers imitate the phonetic properties of voices they are exposed to in shadowing, repetition, and even passive listening tasks. We review three theoretical accounts of speech imitation and convergence phenomena: (i the Episodic Theory (ET of speech perception and production (Goldinger, 1998; (ii the Motor Theory (MT of speech perception (Liberman and Whalen, 2000;Galantucci et al., 2006 ; (iii Communication Accommodation Theory (CAT; Giles et al., 1991;Giles and Coupland, 1991. We argue that no account is able to explain all the available evidence. In particular, there is a need to integrate low-level, mechanistic accounts (like ET and MT and higher-level accounts (like CAT. We propose that this is possible within the framework of an integrated theory of production and comprehension (Pickering & Garrod, in press. Similarly to both ET and MT, this theory assumes parity between production and perception. Uniquely, however, it posits that listeners simulate speakers’ utterances by computing forward-model predictions at many different levels, which are then compared to the incoming phonetic input. In our account phonetic imitation can be achieved via the same mechanism that is responsible for sensorimotor adaptation; i.e. the correction of prediction errors. In addition, the model assumes that the degree to which sensory prediction errors lead to motor adjustments is context-dependent. The notion of context subsumes both the preceding linguistic input and non-linguistic attributes of the situation (e.g., the speaker’s and listener’s social identities, their conversational roles, the listener’s intention to imitate.

  12. Comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haustein, P.E.

    1987-01-01

    A project has been completed recently for a comprehensive update of atomic mass predictions. This last occurred in 1976. Over the last 10 years the reliability of these earlier predictions (and others published later) has been analyzed by comparisons of the predictions with new masses from isotopes that were not in the experimental data base when the predictions were prepared. This analysis has highlighted distinct systematic features in various models which frequently result in poor predictions for nuclei that lie far from stability. An overview of the new predictions from models with different theoretical approaches will be presented

  13. Learning to Predict Chemical Reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayala, Matthew A.; Azencott, Chloé-Agathe; Chen, Jonathan H.

    2011-01-01

    Being able to predict the course of arbitrary chemical reactions is essential to the theory and applications of organic chemistry. Approaches to the reaction prediction problems can be organized around three poles corresponding to: (1) physical laws; (2) rule-based expert systems; and (3) inductive machine learning. Previous approaches at these poles respectively are not high-throughput, are not generalizable or scalable, or lack sufficient data and structure to be implemented. We propose a new approach to reaction prediction utilizing elements from each pole. Using a physically inspired conceptualization, we describe single mechanistic reactions as interactions between coarse approximations of molecular orbitals (MOs) and use topological and physicochemical attributes as descriptors. Using an existing rule-based system (Reaction Explorer), we derive a restricted chemistry dataset consisting of 1630 full multi-step reactions with 2358 distinct starting materials and intermediates, associated with 2989 productive mechanistic steps and 6.14 million unproductive mechanistic steps. And from machine learning, we pose identifying productive mechanistic steps as a statistical ranking, information retrieval, problem: given a set of reactants and a description of conditions, learn a ranking model over potential filled-to-unfilled MO interactions such that the top ranked mechanistic steps yield the major products. The machine learning implementation follows a two-stage approach, in which we first train atom level reactivity filters to prune 94.00% of non-productive reactions with a 0.01% error rate. Then, we train an ensemble of ranking models on pairs of interacting MOs to learn a relative productivity function over mechanistic steps in a given system. Without the use of explicit transformation patterns, the ensemble perfectly ranks the productive mechanism at the top 89.05% of the time, rising to 99.86% of the time when the top four are considered. Furthermore, the system

  14. Learning to predict chemical reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayala, Matthew A; Azencott, Chloé-Agathe; Chen, Jonathan H; Baldi, Pierre

    2011-09-26

    Being able to predict the course of arbitrary chemical reactions is essential to the theory and applications of organic chemistry. Approaches to the reaction prediction problems can be organized around three poles corresponding to: (1) physical laws; (2) rule-based expert systems; and (3) inductive machine learning. Previous approaches at these poles, respectively, are not high throughput, are not generalizable or scalable, and lack sufficient data and structure to be implemented. We propose a new approach to reaction prediction utilizing elements from each pole. Using a physically inspired conceptualization, we describe single mechanistic reactions as interactions between coarse approximations of molecular orbitals (MOs) and use topological and physicochemical attributes as descriptors. Using an existing rule-based system (Reaction Explorer), we derive a restricted chemistry data set consisting of 1630 full multistep reactions with 2358 distinct starting materials and intermediates, associated with 2989 productive mechanistic steps and 6.14 million unproductive mechanistic steps. And from machine learning, we pose identifying productive mechanistic steps as a statistical ranking, information retrieval problem: given a set of reactants and a description of conditions, learn a ranking model over potential filled-to-unfilled MO interactions such that the top-ranked mechanistic steps yield the major products. The machine learning implementation follows a two-stage approach, in which we first train atom level reactivity filters to prune 94.00% of nonproductive reactions with a 0.01% error rate. Then, we train an ensemble of ranking models on pairs of interacting MOs to learn a relative productivity function over mechanistic steps in a given system. Without the use of explicit transformation patterns, the ensemble perfectly ranks the productive mechanism at the top 89.05% of the time, rising to 99.86% of the time when the top four are considered. Furthermore, the system

  15. Is quantum theory predictably complete?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kupczynski, M [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Ottawa, 585 King-Edward Avenue, Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5 (Canada); Departement de l' Informatique, UQO, Case postale 1250, succursale Hull, Gatineau, Quebec J8X 3X 7 (Canada)], E-mail: mkupczyn@uottawa.ca

    2009-07-15

    Quantum theory (QT) provides statistical predictions for various physical phenomena. To verify these predictions a considerable amount of data has been accumulated in the 'measurements' performed on the ensembles of identically prepared physical systems or in the repeated 'measurements' on some trapped 'individual physical systems'. The outcomes of these measurements are, in general, some numerical time series registered by some macroscopic instruments. The various empirical probability distributions extracted from these time series were shown to be consistent with the probabilistic predictions of QT. More than 70 years ago the claim was made that QT provided the most complete description of 'individual' physical systems and outcomes of the measurements performed on 'individual' physical systems were obtained in an intrinsically random way. Spin polarization correlation experiments (SPCEs), performed to test the validity of Bell inequalities, clearly demonstrated the existence of strong long-range correlations and confirmed that the beams hitting far away detectors somehow preserve the memory of their common source which would be destroyed if the individual counts of far away detectors were purely random. Since the probabilities describe the random experiments and are not the attributes of the 'individual' physical systems, the claim that QT provides a complete description of 'individual' physical systems seems not only unjustified but also misleading and counter productive. In this paper, we point out that we even do not know whether QT is predictably complete because it has not been tested carefully enough. Namely, it was not proven that the time series of existing experimental data did not contain some stochastic fine structures that could have been averaged out by describing them in terms of the empirical probability distributions. In this paper, we advocate various statistical tests that

  16. Focus on astronomical predictable events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Aase Roland

    2006-01-01

    At the Steno Museum Planetarium we have for many occasions used a countdown clock to get focus om astronomical events. A countdown clock can provide actuality to predictable events, for example The Venus Transit, Opportunity landing on Mars and The Solar Eclipse. The movement of the clock attracs...... the public and makes a point of interest in a small exhibit area. A countdown clock can be simple, but it is possible to expand the concept to an eye-catching part of a museum....

  17. Making predictions in the multiverse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freivogel, Ben

    2011-01-01

    I describe reasons to think we are living in an eternally inflating multiverse where the observable 'constants' of nature vary from place to place. The major obstacle to making predictions in this context is that we must regulate the infinities of eternal inflation. I review a number of proposed regulators, or measures. Recent work has ruled out a number of measures by showing that they conflict with observation, and focused attention on a few proposals. Further, several different measures have been shown to be equivalent. I describe some of the many nontrivial tests these measures will face as we learn more from theory, experiment and observation.

  18. Making predictions in the multiverse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freivogel, Ben, E-mail: benfreivogel@gmail.com [Center for Theoretical Physics and Laboratory for Nuclear Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2011-10-21

    I describe reasons to think we are living in an eternally inflating multiverse where the observable 'constants' of nature vary from place to place. The major obstacle to making predictions in this context is that we must regulate the infinities of eternal inflation. I review a number of proposed regulators, or measures. Recent work has ruled out a number of measures by showing that they conflict with observation, and focused attention on a few proposals. Further, several different measures have been shown to be equivalent. I describe some of the many nontrivial tests these measures will face as we learn more from theory, experiment and observation.

  19. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Tahhan, Antonio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Muchmore, Cody [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Nichols, Larinda [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bhandari, Bishwo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  20. Mach's predictions and relativistic cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, M.

    1989-01-01

    Deep methodological insight of Ernst Mach into the structure of the Newtonian mechanics allowed him to ask questions, the importance of which can be appreciated only today. Three such Mach's ''predictions'' are briefly presented, namely: the possibility of the existence of an allpervading medium which could serve as an universal frame of reference and which has actually been discovered in the form of the microwave background radiation, a certain ''smoothness'' of the Universe which is now recognized as the Robertson-Walker symmetries and the possibility of the experimental verification of the mass anisotropy. 11 refs. (author)

  1. Zephyr - the next generation prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2001-01-01

    Technical University. This paper will describe a new project funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy where the largest Danish utilities (Elkraft, Elsam, Eltra and SEAS) are participating. Two advantages can be achieved by combining the effort: The software architecture will be state-of-the-art, using...... the Java2TM platform and Enterprise Java Beans technology, and it will ensure that the best forecasts are given on all prediction horizons from the short range (0-9 hours) to the long range (36-48 hours). This is because the IMM approach uses online data and advanced statistical methods, which...

  2. Aviation turbulence processes, detection, prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Lane, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Anyone who has experienced turbulence in flight knows that it is usually not pleasant, and may wonder why this is so difficult to avoid. The book includes papers by various aviation turbulence researchers and provides background into the nature and causes of atmospheric turbulence that affect aircraft motion, and contains surveys of the latest techniques for remote and in situ sensing and forecasting of the turbulence phenomenon. It provides updates on the state-of-the-art research since earlier studies in the 1960s on clear-air turbulence, explains recent new understanding into turbulence generation by thunderstorms, and summarizes future challenges in turbulence prediction and avoidance.

  3. Prediction of burnout. Chapter 14

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, D.H.

    1977-01-01

    A broad survey is made of the effect on burnout heat flux of various system parameters to give the reader a better initial idea of the significance of changes in individual parameters. A detailed survey is then made of various correlation equations for predicting burnout for steam -water in uniformly heated tubes, annuli, rectangular channels and rod clusters, giving details of recommended equations. Finally comments are made on the influence of heat-flux profile and swirl flow on burnout, and on the definition of dryout margin. (author)

  4. Predicting word sense annotation agreement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Alonso, Hector; Johannsen, Anders Trærup; Lopez de Lacalle, Oier

    2015-01-01

    High agreement is a common objective when annotating data for word senses. However, a number of factors make perfect agreement impossible, e.g. the limitations of the sense inventories, the difficulty of the examples or the interpretation preferences of the annotations. Estimating potential...... agreement is thus a relevant task to supplement the evaluation of sense annotations. In this article we propose two methods to predict agreement on word-annotation instances. We experiment with a continuous representation and a three-way discretization of observed agreement. In spite of the difficulty...

  5. Mechanism and prediction of burnout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hewitt, G.F.

    1977-01-01

    The lecture begins by discussing the definitions of burnout and the various parametric effects as seen from the results for burnout measurements in uniformly heated round tubes. The correlations which are developed from these measurements and their applications to the case of non-uniform axial distribution of heat flux is then discussed in general terms as an illustration of the importance of knowing more about the nature and mechanism of the burnout. The next section of the lecture is concerned with summarizing broadly the various possible mechanisms in both the sub-cooled region and the quality region. It transpires that, for tubes of reasonable length, the normal first occurrence of burnout is in the annular flow regime. A discussion of burnout mechanisms in this regime then follows, with descriptions of the various experimental techniques evolved to study the mechanism. The final section of the lecture is concerned with prediction methods for burnout in annular flow and the application of these methods to prediction of burnout in round tubes, annuli and rod bundles, with a variety of fluids

  6. On predicting monitoring system effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappello, Carlo; Sigurdardottir, Dorotea; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele; Pozzi, Matteo

    2015-03-01

    While the objective of structural design is to achieve stability with an appropriate level of reliability, the design of systems for structural health monitoring is performed to identify a configuration that enables acquisition of data with an appropriate level of accuracy in order to understand the performance of a structure or its condition state. However, a rational standardized approach for monitoring system design is not fully available. Hence, when engineers design a monitoring system, their approach is often heuristic with performance evaluation based on experience, rather than on quantitative analysis. In this contribution, we propose a probabilistic model for the estimation of monitoring system effectiveness based on information available in prior condition, i.e. before acquiring empirical data. The presented model is developed considering the analogy between structural design and monitoring system design. We assume that the effectiveness can be evaluated based on the prediction of the posterior variance or covariance matrix of the state parameters, which we assume to be defined in a continuous space. Since the empirical measurements are not available in prior condition, the estimation of the posterior variance or covariance matrix is performed considering the measurements as a stochastic variable. Moreover, the model takes into account the effects of nuisance parameters, which are stochastic parameters that affect the observations but cannot be estimated using monitoring data. Finally, we present an application of the proposed model to a real structure. The results show how the model enables engineers to predict whether a sensor configuration satisfies the required performance.

  7. Prediction Reweighting for Domain Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuang Li; Shiji Song; Gao Huang

    2017-07-01

    There are plenty of classification methods that perform well when training and testing data are drawn from the same distribution. However, in real applications, this condition may be violated, which causes degradation of classification accuracy. Domain adaptation is an effective approach to address this problem. In this paper, we propose a general domain adaptation framework from the perspective of prediction reweighting, from which a novel approach is derived. Different from the major domain adaptation methods, our idea is to reweight predictions of the training classifier on testing data according to their signed distance to the domain separator, which is a classifier that distinguishes training data (from source domain) and testing data (from target domain). We then propagate the labels of target instances with larger weights to ones with smaller weights by introducing a manifold regularization method. It can be proved that our reweighting scheme effectively brings the source and target domains closer to each other in an appropriate sense, such that classification in target domain becomes easier. The proposed method can be implemented efficiently by a simple two-stage algorithm, and the target classifier has a closed-form solution. The effectiveness of our approach is verified by the experiments on artificial datasets and two standard benchmarks, a visual object recognition task and a cross-domain sentiment analysis of text. Experimental results demonstrate that our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art domain adaptation algorithms.

  8. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  9. The Use of Linear Programming for Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnittjer, Carl J.

    The purpose of the study was to develop a linear programming model to be used for prediction, test the accuracy of the predictions, and compare the accuracy with that produced by curvilinear multiple regression analysis. (Author)

  10. Profit Driven Decision Trees for Churn Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Höppner, Sebastiaan; Stripling, Eugen; Baesens, Bart; Broucke, Seppe vanden; Verdonck, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Customer retention campaigns increasingly rely on predictive models to detect potential churners in a vast customer base. From the perspective of machine learning, the task of predicting customer churn can be presented as a binary classification problem. Using data on historic behavior, classification algorithms are built with the purpose of accurately predicting the probability of a customer defecting. The predictive churn models are then commonly selected based on accuracy related performan...

  11. Robust predictions of the interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casten, R.F.; Koeln Univ.

    1994-01-01

    While most recognized for its symmetries and algebraic structure, the IBA model has other less-well-known but equally intrinsic properties which give unavoidable, parameter-free predictions. These predictions concern central aspects of low-energy nuclear collective structure. This paper outlines these ''robust'' predictions and compares them with the data

  12. Phenology prediction component of GypsES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesse A. Logan; Lukas P. Schaub; F. William Ravlin

    1991-01-01

    Prediction of phenology is an important component of most pest management programs, and considerable research effort has been expended toward development of predictive tools for gypsy moth phenology. Although phenological prediction is potentially valuable for timing of spray applications (e.g. Bt, or Gypcheck) and other management activities (e.g. placement and...

  13. Climate Prediction Center - The ENSO Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > El Niño/La Niña > The ENSO Cycle ENSO Cycle Banner Climate for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College

  14. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  15. Relationship between water temperature predictability and aquatic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Macroinvertebrate taxonomic turnover across seasons was higher for sites having lower water temperature predictability values than for sites with higher predictability, while temporal partitioning was greater at sites with greater temperature variability. Macroinvertebrate taxa responded in a predictable manner to changes in ...

  16. Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

  17. NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

    OpenAIRE

    Jerzy Balicki; Piotr Dryja; Waldemar Korłub; Piotr Przybyłek; Maciej Tyszka; Marcin Zadroga; Marcin Zakidalski

    2016-01-01

    Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

  18. NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Balicki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

  19. Applications for predictive microbiology to food packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predictive microbiology has been used for several years in the food industry to predict microbial growth, inactivation and survival. Predictive models provide a useful tool in risk assessment, HACCP set-up and GMP for the food industry to enhance microbial food safety. This report introduces the c...

  20. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as

  1. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  2. Pretest Predictions for Ventilation Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Y. Sun; H. Yang; H.N. Kalia

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to predict the temperatures of the ventilating air, waste package surface, concrete pipe walls, and insulation that will be developed during the ventilation tests involving various test conditions. The results will be used as input to the following three areas: (1) Decisions regarding testing set-up and performance. (2) Assessing how best to scale the test phenomena measured. (3) Validating numerical approach for modeling continuous ventilation. The scope of the calculation is to identify the physical mechanisms and parameters related to thermal response in the ventilation tests, and develop and describe numerical methods that can be used to calculate the effects of continuous ventilation. Sensitivity studies to assess the impact of variation of linear power densities (linear heat loads) and ventilation air flow rates are included. The calculation is limited to thermal effect only

  3. The Predictiveness of Achievement Goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huy P. Phan

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Using the Revised Achievement Goal Questionnaire (AGQ-R (Elliot & Murayama, 2008, we explored first-year university students’ achievement goal orientations on the premise of the 2 × 2 model. Similar to recent studies (Elliot & Murayama, 2008; Elliot & Thrash, 2010, we conceptualized a model that included both antecedent (i.e., enactive learning experience and consequence (i.e., intrinsic motivation and academic achievement of achievement goals. Two hundred seventy-seven university students (151 women, 126 men participated in the study. Structural equation modeling procedures yielded evidence that showed the predictive effects of enactive learning experience and mastery goals on intrinsic motivation. Academic achievement was influenced intrinsic motivation, performance-approach goals, and enactive learning experience. Enactive learning experience also served as an antecedent of the four achievement goal types. On the whole, evidence obtained supports the AGQ-R and contributes, theoretically, to 2 × 2 model.

  4. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  5. The PredictAD project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antila, Kari; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Thurfjell, Lennart

    2013-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia affecting 36 million people worldwide. As the demographic transition in the developed countries progresses towards older population, the worsening ratio of workers per retirees and the growing number of patients with age-related illnes...... candidates and implement the framework in software. The results are currently used in several research projects, licensed to commercial use and being tested for clinical use in several trials....... objective of the PredictAD project was to find and integrate efficient biomarkers from heterogeneous patient data to make early diagnosis and to monitor the progress of AD in a more efficient, reliable and objective manner. The project focused on discovering biomarkers from biomolecular data...

  6. Prediction and probability in sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

    1998-01-01

    This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

  7. Meditation experience predicts introspective accuracy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kieran C R Fox

    Full Text Available The accuracy of subjective reports, especially those involving introspection of one's own internal processes, remains unclear, and research has demonstrated large individual differences in introspective accuracy. It has been hypothesized that introspective accuracy may be heightened in persons who engage in meditation practices, due to the highly introspective nature of such practices. We undertook a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis, examining introspective accuracy in a cross-section of meditation practitioners (1-15,000 hrs experience. Introspective accuracy was assessed by comparing subjective reports of tactile sensitivity for each of 20 body regions during a 'body-scanning' meditation with averaged, objective measures of tactile sensitivity (mean size of body representation area in primary somatosensory cortex; two-point discrimination threshold as reported in prior research. Expert meditators showed significantly better introspective accuracy than novices; overall meditation experience also significantly predicted individual introspective accuracy. These results suggest that long-term meditators provide more accurate introspective reports than novices.

  8. Predicting degradability of organic chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finizio, A; Vighi, M [Milan Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Entomologia Agraria

    1992-05-01

    Degradability, particularly biodegradability, is one of the most important factors governing the persistence of pollutants in the environment and consequently influencing their behavior and toxicity in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. The need for reliable persistence data in order to assess the environmental fate and hazard of chemicals by means of predictive approaches, is evident. Biodegradability tests are requested by the EEC directive on new chemicals. Neverthless, degradation tests are not easy to carry out and data on existing chemicals are very scarce. Therefore, assessing the fate of chemicals in the environment from the simple study of their structure would be a useful tool. Rates of degradation are a function of the rates of a series of processes. Correlation between degradation rates and structural parameters are will be facilitated if one of the processes is rate determining. This review is a survey of studies dealing with relationships between structure and biodegradation of organic chemicals, to identify the value and limitations of this approach.

  9. Unrenormalizable theories can be predictive

    CERN Document Server

    Kubo, J

    2003-01-01

    Unrenormalizable theories contain infinitely many free parameters. Considering these theories in terms of the Wilsonian renormalization group (RG), we suggest a method for removing this large ambiguity. Our basic assumption is the existence of a maximal ultraviolet cutoff in a cutoff theory, and we require that the theory be so fine tuned as to reach the maximal cutoff. The theory so obtained behaves as a local continuum theory to the shortest distance. In concrete examples of the scalar theory we find that at least in a certain approximation to the Wilsonian RG, this requirement enables us to make unique predictions in the infrared regime in terms of a finite number of independent parameters. Therefore, this method might provide a way for calculating quantum corrections in a low-energy effective theory of quantum gravity. (orig.)

  10. Lower-limb growth: how predictable are predictions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Paula M; Diméglio, Alain

    2008-12-01

    The purpose of this review is to clarify the different methods of predictions for growth of the lower limb and to propose a simplified method to calculate the final limb deficit and the correct timing of epiphysiodesis. Lower-limb growth is characterized by four different periods: antenatal growth (exponential); birth to 5 years (rapid growth); 5 years to puberty (stable growth); and puberty, which is the final growth spurt characterized by a rapid acceleration phase lasting 1 year followed by a more gradual deceleration phase lasting 1.5 years. The younger the child, the less precise is the prediction. Repeating measurements can increase the accuracy of predictions and those calculated at the beginning of puberty are the most accurate. The challenge is to reduce the margin of uncertainty. Confrontation of the different parameters-bone age, Tanner signs, annual growth velocity of the standing height, sub-ischial length and sitting height-is the most accurate method. Charts and diagrams are only models and templates. There are many mathematical equations in the literature; we must be able to step back from these rigid calculations because they are a false guarantee. The dynamic of growth needs a flexible approach. There are, however, some rules of thumb that may be helpful for different clinical scenarios. For congenital malformations, at birth the limb length discrepancy must be multiplied by 5 to give the final limb length discrepancy. Multiple by 3 at 1 year of age; by 2 at 3 years in girls and 4 years in boys; by 1.5 at 7 years in girls and boys, by 1.2 at 9 years in girls and 11 years in boys and by 1.1 at the onset of puberty (11 years bone age for girls and 13 years bone age for boys). For the timing of epiphysiodesis, several simple principles must be observed to reduce the margin of error; strict and repeated measurements, rigorous analysis of the data obtained, perfect evaluation of bone age with elbow plus hand radiographs and confirmation with Tanner

  11. PEMS. Advanced predictive emission monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandvig Nielsen, J.

    2010-07-15

    In the project PEMS have been developed for boilers, internal combustion engines and gas turbines. The PEMS models have been developed using two principles: The one called ''first principles'' is based on thermo-kinetic modeling of the NO{sub x}-formation by modeling conditions (like temperature, pressure and residence time) in the reaction zones. The other one is data driven using artificial neural network (ANN) and includes no physical properties and no thermo-kinetic formulation. Models of first principles have been developed for gas turbines and gas engines. Data driven models have been developed for gas turbines, gas engines and boilers. The models have been tested on data from sites located in Denmark and the Middle East. Weel and Sandvig has conducted the on-site emission measurements used for development and testing the PEMS models. For gas turbines, both the ''first principles'' and the data driven models have performed excellent considering the ability to reproduce the emission levels of NO{sub x} according to the input variables used for calibration. Data driven models for boilers and gas engines have performed excellent as well. The rather comprehensive first principle model, developed for gas engines, did not perform as well in the prediction of NO{sub x}. Possible a more complex model formulation is required for internal combustion engines. In general, both model types have been validated on data extracted from the data set used for calibration. The data for validation have been selected randomly as individual samplings, and is scattered over the entire measuring campaign. For one natural gas engine a secondary measuring campaign was conducted half a year later than the campaign used for training the data driven model. In the meantime, this engine had been through a refurbishment that included new pistons, piston rings and cylinder linings and cleaning of the cylinder heads. Despite the refurbishment, the

  12. Earthquake predictions using seismic velocity ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherburne, R. W.

    1979-01-01

    Since the beginning of modern seismology, seismologists have contemplated predicting earthquakes. The usefulness of earthquake predictions to the reduction of human and economic losses and the value of long-range earthquake prediction to planning is obvious. Not as clear are the long-range economic and social impacts of earthquake prediction to a speicifc area. The general consensus of opinion among scientists and government officials, however, is that the quest of earthquake prediction is a worthwhile goal and should be prusued with a sense of urgency. 

  13. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm...... to the case of a large number of wind farms in Europe and Australia among others is finally discussed....

  14. Sports Tournament Predictions Using Direct Manipulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuillemot, Romain; Perin, Charles

    2016-01-01

    An advanced interface for sports tournament predictions uses direct manipulation to allow users to make nonlinear predictions. Unlike previous interface designs, the interface helps users focus on their prediction tasks by enabling them to first choose a winner and then fill out the rest of the bracket. In real-world tests of the proposed interface (for the 2014 FIFA World Cup tournament and 2015/2016 UEFA Champions League), the authors validated the use of direct manipulation as an alternative to widgets. Using visitor interaction logs, they were able to determine the strategies people use to perform predictions and identify potential areas of improvement for further prediction interfaces.

  15. The function and failure of sensory predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bansal, Sonia; Ford, Judith M; Spering, Miriam

    2018-04-23

    Humans and other primates are equipped with neural mechanisms that allow them to automatically make predictions about future events, facilitating processing of expected sensations and actions. Prediction-driven control and monitoring of perceptual and motor acts are vital to normal cognitive functioning. This review provides an overview of corollary discharge mechanisms involved in predictions across sensory modalities and discusses consequences of predictive coding for cognition and behavior. Converging evidence now links impairments in corollary discharge mechanisms to neuropsychiatric symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions. We review studies supporting a prediction-failure hypothesis of perceptual and cognitive disturbances. We also outline neural correlates underlying prediction function and failure, highlighting similarities across the visual, auditory, and somatosensory systems. In linking basic psychophysical and psychophysiological evidence of visual, auditory, and somatosensory prediction failures to neuropsychiatric symptoms, our review furthers our understanding of disease mechanisms. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

  16. Evaluating predictions of critical oxygen desaturation events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ElMoaqet, Hisham; Tilbury, Dawn M; Ramachandran, Satya Krishna

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach for evaluating predictions of oxygen saturation levels in blood ( SpO 2 ). A performance metric based on a threshold is proposed to evaluate  SpO 2 predictions based on whether or not they are able to capture critical desaturations in the  SpO 2 time series of patients. We use linear auto-regressive models built using historical  SpO 2 data to predict critical desaturation events with the proposed metric. In 20 s prediction intervals, 88%–94% of the critical events were captured with positive predictive values (PPVs) between 90% and 99%. Increasing the prediction horizon to 60 s, 46%–71% of the critical events were detected with PPVs between 81% and 97%. In both prediction horizons, more than 97% of the non-critical events were correctly classified. The overall classification capabilities for the developed predictive models were also investigated. The area under ROC curves for 60 s predictions from the developed models are between 0.86 and 0.98. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of including pulse rate (PR) dynamics in the models and predictions. We show no improvement in the percentage of the predicted critical desaturations if PR dynamics are incorporated into the  SpO 2 predictive models (p-value = 0.814). We also show that including the PR dynamics does not improve the earliest time at which critical  SpO 2 levels are predicted (p-value = 0.986). Our results indicate oxygen in blood is an effective input to the PR rather than vice versa. We demonstrate that the combination of predictive models with frequent pulse oximetry measurements can be used as a warning of critical oxygen desaturations that may have adverse effects on the health of patients. (paper)

  17. Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

    2018-01-01

    Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

  18. Similarities and Differences Between Warped Linear Prediction and Laguerre Linear Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinker, Albertus C. den; Krishnamoorthi, Harish; Verbitskiy, Evgeny A.

    2011-01-01

    Linear prediction has been successfully applied in many speech and audio processing systems. This paper presents the similarities and differences between two classes of linear prediction schemes, namely, Warped Linear Prediction (WLP) and Laguerre Linear Prediction (LLP). It is shown that both

  19. Radon observation for earthquake prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wakita, Hiroshi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan)

    1998-12-31

    Systematic observation of groundwater radon for the purpose of earthquake prediction began in Japan in late 1973. Continuous observations are conducted at fixed stations using deep wells and springs. During the observation period, significant precursory changes including the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai (M7.0) earthquake as well as numerous coseismic changes were observed. At the time of the 1995 Kobe (M7.2) earthquake, significant changes in chemical components, including radon dissolved in groundwater, were observed near the epicentral region. Precursory changes are presumably caused by permeability changes due to micro-fracturing in basement rock or migration of water from different sources during the preparation stage of earthquakes. Coseismic changes may be caused by seismic shaking and by changes in regional stress. Significant drops of radon concentration in groundwater have been observed after earthquakes at the KSM site. The occurrence of such drops appears to be time-dependent, and possibly reflects changes in the regional stress state of the observation area. The absence of radon drops seems to be correlated with periods of reduced regional seismic activity. Experience accumulated over the two past decades allows us to reach some conclusions: 1) changes in groundwater radon do occur prior to large earthquakes; 2) some sites are particularly sensitive to earthquake occurrence; and 3) the sensitivity changes over time. (author)

  20. Solar Flares and Their Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Mitzi L.

    1999-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejection's (CMES) can strongly affect the local environment at the Earth. A major challenge for solar physics is to understand the physical mechanisms responsible for the onset of solar flares. Flares, characterized by a sudden release of energy (approx. 10(exp 32) ergs for the largest events) within the solar atmosphere, result in the acceleration of electrons, protons, and heavier ions as well as the production of electromagnetic radiation from hard X-rays to km radio waves (wavelengths approx. = 10(exp -9) cm to 10(exp 6) cm). Observations suggest that solar flares and sunspots are strongly linked. For example, a study of data from 1956-1969, reveals that approx. 93 percent of major flares originate in active regions with spots. Furthermore, the global structure of the sunspot magnetic field can be correlated with flare activity. This talk will review what we know about flare causes and effects and will discuss techniques for quantifying parameters, which may lead to a prediction of solar flares.

  1. Incorrect predictions reduce switch costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinsorge, Thomas; Scheil, Juliane

    2015-07-01

    In three experiments, we combined two sources of conflict within a modified task-switching procedure. The first source of conflict was the one inherent in any task switching situation, namely the conflict between a task set activated by the recent performance of another task and the task set needed to perform the actually relevant task. The second source of conflict was induced by requiring participants to guess aspects of the upcoming task (Exps. 1 & 2: task identity; Exp. 3: position of task precue). In case of an incorrect guess, a conflict accrues between the representation of the guessed task and the actually relevant task. In Experiments 1 and 2, incorrect guesses led to an overall increase of reaction times and error rates, but they reduced task switch costs compared to conditions in which participants predicted the correct task. In Experiment 3, incorrect guesses resulted in faster performance overall and to a selective decrease of reaction times in task switch trials when the cue-target interval was long. We interpret these findings in terms of an enhanced level of controlled processing induced by a combination of two sources of conflict converging upon the same target of cognitive control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Parallel Prediction of Stock Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Jenq

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Volatility is a measurement of the risk of financial products. A stock will hit new highs and lows over time and if these highs and lows fluctuate wildly, then it is considered a high volatile stock. Such a stock is considered riskier than a stock whose volatility is low. Although highly volatile stocks are riskier, the returns that they generate for investors can be quite high. Of course, with a riskier stock also comes the chance of losing money and yielding negative returns. In this project, we will use historic stock data to help us forecast volatility. Since the financial industry usually uses S&P 500 as the indicator of the market, we will use S&P 500 as a benchmark to compute the risk. We will also use artificial neural networks as a tool to predict volatilities for a specific time frame that will be set when we configure this neural network. There have been reports that neural networks with different numbers of layers and different numbers of hidden nodes may generate varying results. In fact, we may be able to find the best configuration of a neural network to compute volatilities. We will implement this system using the parallel approach. The system can be used as a tool for investors to allocating and hedging assets.

  3. Color prediction in textile application

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lucia, Maurizio; Buonopane, Massimo

    2004-09-01

    Nowadays production systems of fancy yarns for knits allow the creation of extremely complex products in which many effects are obtained by means of color alteration. Current production technique consists in defining type and quantity of fibers by making preliminary samples. This samples are then compared with a reference one. This comparison is based on operator experience. Many samples are required in order to achieve a sample similar to the reference one. This work requires time and then additional costs for a textile manufacturer. In addition, the methodology is subjective. Nowadays, spectrophotometers are the only devices that seem to be able to provide objective indications. They are based on a spectral analysis of the light reflected by the knit material. In this paper the study of a new method for color evaluation of a mix of wool fibers with different colors is presented. First of all fiber characterization were carried out through scattering and absorption coefficients using the Kubelka-Munk theory. Then the estimated color was compared with a reference item, in order to define conformity by means of objective parameters. Finally, theoretical characterization was compared with the measured quantity. This allowed estimation of prediction quality.

  4. Predictable repair of provisional restorations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Barry D; Cooper, Jeril R; Lazarchik, David A

    2009-01-01

    The importance of provisional restorations is often downplayed, as they are thought of by some as only "temporaries." As a result, a less-than-ideal provisional is sometimes fabricated, in part because of the additional chair time required to make provisional modifications when using traditional techniques. Additionally, in many dental practices, these provisional restorations are often fabricated by auxillary personnel who may not be as well trained in the fabrication process. Because provisionals play an important role in achieving the desired final functional and esthetic result, a high-quality provisional restoration is essential to fabricating a successful definitive restoration. This article describes a method for efficiently and predictably repairing both methacrylate and bis-acryl provisional restorations using flowable composite resin. By use of this relatively simple technique, provisional restorations can now be modified or repaired in a timely and productive manner to yield an exceptional result. Successful execution of esthetic and restorative dentistry requires attention to detail in every aspect of the case. Fabrication of high-quality provisional restorations can, at times, be challenging and time consuming. The techniques for optimizing resin provisional restorations as described in this paper are pragmatic and will enhance the delivery of dental treatment.

  5. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  6. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Jordan, T. H.; Zechar, J. D.; Gerstenberger, M. C.; Wiemer, S.; Maechling, P. J.

    2006-12-01

    Earthquake prediction is one of the most difficult problems in physical science and, owing to its societal implications, one of the most controversial. The study of earthquake predictability has been impeded by the lack of an adequate experimental infrastructure---the capability to conduct scientific prediction experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluate them using accepted criteria specified in advance. To remedy this deficiency, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is working with its international partners, which include the European Union (through the Swiss Seismological Service) and New Zealand (through GNS Science), to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory with a cyberinfrastructure adequate to support a global program of research on earthquake predictability. This Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) will extend the testing activities of SCEC's Working Group on Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, from which we will present first results. CSEP will support rigorous procedures for registering prediction experiments on regional and global scales, community-endorsed standards for assessing probability-based and alarm-based predictions, access to authorized data sets and monitoring products from designated natural laboratories, and software to allow researchers to participate in prediction experiments. CSEP will encourage research on earthquake predictability by supporting an environment for scientific prediction experiments that allows the predictive skill of proposed algorithms to be rigorously compared with standardized reference methods and data sets. It will thereby reduce the controversies surrounding earthquake prediction, and it will allow the results of prediction experiments to be communicated to the scientific community, governmental agencies, and the general public in an appropriate research context.

  7. Predicting Well-Being in Europe?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, M. Azhar

    2015-01-01

    Has the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s reduced the subjective wellbeing function's predictive power? Regression models for happiness are estimated for the three first rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS); 2002, 2004 and 2006. Several explanatory variables are significant...... happiness. Nevertheless, 73% of the predictions in 2008 and 57% of predictions in 2010 were within the margin of error. These correct prediction percentages are not unusually low - rather they are slightly higher than before the crisis. It is surprising that happiness predictions are not adversely affected...... by the crisis. On the other hand, results are consistent with the adaption hypothesis. The same exercise is conducted applying life satisfaction instead of happiness, but we reject, against expectation, that (more transient) happiness is harder to predict than life satisfaction. Fifteen ESS countries surveyed...

  8. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

  9. Probabilistic approach to earthquake prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D'Addezio

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of any earthquake forecast hypothesis requires the application of rigorous statistical methods. It implies a univocal definition of the model characterising the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognised in any circumstance and by any observer.A valid forecast hypothesis is expected to maximise successes and minimise false alarms. The probability gain associated to a precursor is also a popular way to estimate the quality of the predictions based on such precursor. Some scientists make use of a statistical approach based on the computation of the likelihood of an observed realisation of seismic events, and on the comparison of the likelihood obtained under different hypotheses. This method can be extended to algorithms that allow the computation of the density distribution of the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude. Whatever method is chosen for building up a new hypothesis, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this test could, however, be problematic for seismicity characterised by long-term recurrence intervals. Even using the historical record, that may span time windows extremely variable between a few centuries to a few millennia, we have a low probability to catch more than one or two events on the same fault. Extending the record of earthquakes of the past back in time up to several millennia, paleoseismology represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. Sets of paleoseimologically dated earthquakes have been established for some faults in the Mediterranean area: the Irpinia fault in Southern Italy, the Fucino fault in Central Italy, the El Asnam fault in Algeria and the Skinos fault in Central Greece. By using the age of the

  10. Can we predict shoulder dystocia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revicky, Vladimir; Mukhopadhyay, Sambit; Morris, Edward P; Nieto, Jose J

    2012-02-01

    To analyse the significance of risk factors and the possibility of prediction of shoulder dystocia. This was a retrospective cohort study. There were 9,767 vaginal deliveries at 37 and more weeks of gestation analysed during 2005-2007. Studied population included 234 deliveries complicated by shoulder dystocia. Shoulder dystocia was defined as a delivery that required additional obstetric manoeuvres to release the shoulders after gentle downward traction has failed. First, a univariate analysis was done to identify the factors that had a significant association with shoulder dystocia. Parity, age, gestation, induction of labour, epidural analgesia, birth weight, duration of second stage of labour and mode of delivery were studied factors. All factors were then combined in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Adjusted odds ratios (Adj. OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The incidence of shoulder dystocia was 2.4% (234/9,767). Only mode of delivery and birth weight were independent risk factors for shoulder dystocia. Parity, age, gestation, induction of labour, epidural analgesia and duration of second stage of labour were not independent risk factors. Ventouse delivery increases the risk of shoulder dystocia almost 3 times, forceps delivery comparing to the ventouse delivery increases risk almost 3.4 times. Risk of shoulder dystocia is minimal with the birth weight of 3,000 g or less. It is difficult to foretell the exact birth weight and the mode of delivery, therefore occurrence of shoulder dystocia is highly unpredictable. Regular drills for shoulder dystocia and awareness of increased incidence with instrumental deliveries are important to reduce fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality.

  11. Lifestyle Markers Predict Cognitive Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masley, Steven C; Roetzheim, Richard; Clayton, Gwendolyn; Presby, Angela; Sundberg, Kelley; Masley, Lucas V

    2017-01-01

    Rates of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease are increasing rapidly. None of the current treatment regimens for Alzheimer's disease are effective in arresting progression. Lifestyle choices may prevent cognitive decline. This study aims to clarify which factors best predict cognitive function. This was a prospective cross-sectional analysis of 799 men and women undergoing health and cognitive testing every 1 to 3 years at an outpatient center. This study utilizes data collected from the first patient visit. Participant ages were 18 to 88 (mean = 50.7) years and the sample was 26.6% female and 73.4% male. Measurements were made of body composition, fasting laboratory and anthropometric measures, strength and aerobic fitness, nutrient and dietary intake, and carotid intimal media thickness (IMT). Each participant was tested with a computerized neurocognitive test battery. Cognitive outcomes were assessed in bivariate analyses using t-tests and correlation coefficients and in multivariable analysis (controlling for age) using multiple linear regression. The initial bivariate analyses showed better Neurocognitive Index (NCI) scores with lower age, greater fitness scores (push-up strength, VO 2 max, and exercise duration during treadmill testing), and lower fasting glucose levels. Better cognitive flexibility scores were also noted with younger age, lower systolic blood pressure, lower body fat, lower carotid IMT scores, greater fitness, and higher alcohol intake. After controlling for age, factors that remained associated with better NCI scores include no tobacco use, lower fasting glucose levels, and better fitness (aerobic and strength). Higher cognitive flexibility scores remained associated with greater aerobic and strength fitness, lower body fat, and higher intake of alcohol. Modifiable biomarkers that impact cognitive performance favorably include greater aerobic fitness and strength, lower blood sugar levels, greater alcohol intake, lower body

  12. SEIZURE PREDICTION: THE FOURTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaveri, Hitten P.; Frei, Mark G.; Arthurs, Susan; Osorio, Ivan

    2010-01-01

    The recently convened Fourth International Workshop on Seizure Prediction (IWSP4) brought together a diverse international group of investigators, from academia and industry, including epileptologists, neurosurgeons, neuroscientists, computer scientists, engineers, physicists, and mathematicians who are conducting interdisciplinary research on the prediction and control of seizures. IWSP4 allowed the presentation and discussion of results, an exchange of ideas, an assessment of the status of seizure prediction, control and related fields and the fostering of collaborative projects. PMID:20674508

  13. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  14. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...

  15. Protein secondary structure: category assignment and predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Claus A.; Bohr, Henrik; Brunak, Søren

    2001-01-01

    In the last decade, the prediction of protein secondary structure has been optimized using essentially one and the same assignment scheme known as DSSP. We present here a different scheme, which is more predictable. This scheme predicts directly the hydrogen bonds, which stabilize the secondary......-forward neural network with one hidden layer on a data set identical to the one used in earlier work....

  16. Applications of contact predictions to structural biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Simkovic

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary pressure on residue interactions, intramolecular or intermolecular, that are important for protein structure or function can lead to covariance between the two positions. Recent methodological advances allow much more accurate contact predictions to be derived from this evolutionary covariance signal. The practical application of contact predictions has largely been confined to structural bioinformatics, yet, as this work seeks to demonstrate, the data can be of enormous value to the structural biologist working in X-ray crystallography, cryo-EM or NMR. Integrative structural bioinformatics packages such as Rosetta can already exploit contact predictions in a variety of ways. The contribution of contact predictions begins at construct design, where structural domains may need to be expressed separately and contact predictions can help to predict domain limits. Structure solution by molecular replacement (MR benefits from contact predictions in diverse ways: in difficult cases, more accurate search models can be constructed using ab initio modelling when predictions are available, while intermolecular contact predictions can allow the construction of larger, oligomeric search models. Furthermore, MR using supersecondary motifs or large-scale screens against the PDB can exploit information, such as the parallel or antiparallel nature of any β-strand pairing in the target, that can be inferred from contact predictions. Contact information will be particularly valuable in the determination of lower resolution structures by helping to assign sequence register. In large complexes, contact information may allow the identity of a protein responsible for a certain region of density to be determined and then assist in the orientation of an available model within that density. In NMR, predicted contacts can provide long-range information to extend the upper size limit of the technique in a manner analogous but complementary to experimental

  17. Predicting Process Behaviour using Deep Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Evermann, Joerg; Rehse, Jana-Rebecca; Fettke, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Predicting business process behaviour is an important aspect of business process management. Motivated by research in natural language processing, this paper describes an application of deep learning with recurrent neural networks to the problem of predicting the next event in a business process. This is both a novel method in process prediction, which has largely relied on explicit process models, and also a novel application of deep learning methods. The approach is evaluated on two real da...

  18. Audiovisual biofeedback improves motion prediction accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollock, Sean; Lee, Danny; Keall, Paul; Kim, Taeho

    2013-04-01

    The accuracy of motion prediction, utilized to overcome the system latency of motion management radiotherapy systems, is hampered by irregularities present in the patients' respiratory pattern. Audiovisual (AV) biofeedback has been shown to reduce respiratory irregularities. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that AV biofeedback improves the accuracy of motion prediction. An AV biofeedback system combined with real-time respiratory data acquisition and MR images were implemented in this project. One-dimensional respiratory data from (1) the abdominal wall (30 Hz) and (2) the thoracic diaphragm (5 Hz) were obtained from 15 healthy human subjects across 30 studies. The subjects were required to breathe with and without the guidance of AV biofeedback during each study. The obtained respiratory signals were then implemented in a kernel density estimation prediction algorithm. For each of the 30 studies, five different prediction times ranging from 50 to 1400 ms were tested (150 predictions performed). Prediction error was quantified as the root mean square error (RMSE); the RMSE was calculated from the difference between the real and predicted respiratory data. The statistical significance of the prediction results was determined by the Student's t-test. Prediction accuracy was considerably improved by the implementation of AV biofeedback. Of the 150 respiratory predictions performed, prediction accuracy was improved 69% (103/150) of the time for abdominal wall data, and 78% (117/150) of the time for diaphragm data. The average reduction in RMSE due to AV biofeedback over unguided respiration was 26% (p biofeedback improves prediction accuracy. This would result in increased efficiency of motion management techniques affected by system latencies used in radiotherapy.

  19. Prediction methods and databases within chemoinformatics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsdóttir, Svava Osk; Jørgensen, Flemming Steen; Brunak, Søren

    2005-01-01

    MOTIVATION: To gather information about available databases and chemoinformatics methods for prediction of properties relevant to the drug discovery and optimization process. RESULTS: We present an overview of the most important databases with 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional structural information...... about drugs and drug candidates, and of databases with relevant properties. Access to experimental data and numerical methods for selecting and utilizing these data is crucial for developing accurate predictive in silico models. Many interesting predictive methods for classifying the suitability...

  20. Sports Tournament Predictions Using Direct Manipulation

    OpenAIRE

    Vuillemot , Romain; Perin , Charles

    2016-01-01

    An advanced interface for sports tournament predictions uses direct manipulation to allow users to make nonlinear predictions. Unlike previous interface designs, the interface helps users focus on their prediction tasks by enabling them to first choose a winner and then fill out the rest of the bracket. In real-world tests of the proposed interface (for the 2014 FIFA World Cup tournament and 2015/2016 UEFA Champions League), the authors validated the use of direct manipulation as an alternati...

  1. Understanding predictability and exploration in human mobility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cuttone, Andrea; Jørgensen, Sune Lehmann; González, Marta C.

    2018-01-01

    Predictive models for human mobility have important applications in many fields including traffic control, ubiquitous computing, and contextual advertisement. The predictive performance of models in literature varies quite broadly, from over 90% to under 40%. In this work we study which underlying...... strong influence on the accuracy of prediction. Finally we reveal that the exploration of new locations is an important factor in human mobility, and we measure that on average 20-25% of transitions are to new places, and approx. 70% of locations are visited only once. We discuss how these mechanisms...... are important factors limiting our ability to predict human mobility....

  2. Stock market index prediction using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

    1994-03-01

    A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

  3. Decadel climate prediction: challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurrell, J W

    2008-01-01

    The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to show that climate change from global warming is already upon us, and the rate of change as projected exceeds anything seen in nature in the past 10,000 years. Uncertainties remain, however, especially regarding how climate will change at regional and local scales where the signal of natural variability is large. Addressing many of these uncertainties will require a movement toward high resolution climate system predictions, with a blurring of the distinction between shorter-term predictions and longer-term climate projections. The key is the realization that climate system predictions, regardless of timescale, will require initialization of coupled general circulation models with best estimates of the current observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface. Formidable challenges exist: for instance, what is the best method of initialization given imperfect observations and systematic errors in models? What effect does initialization have on climate predictions? What predictions should be attempted, and how would they be verified? Despite such challenges, the unrealized predictability that resides in slowly evolving phenomena, such as ocean current systems, is of paramount importance for society to plan and adapt for the next few decades. Moreover, initialized climate predictions will require stronger collaboration with shared knowledge, infrastructure and technical capabilities among those in the weather and climate prediction communities. The potential benefits include improved understanding and predictions on all time scales

  4. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Drisya

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  5. Implementation of short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L; Joensen, A; Giebel, G [and others

    1999-03-01

    This paper will giver a general overview of the results from a EU JOULE funded project (`Implementing short-term prediction at utilities`, JOR3-CT95-0008). Reference will be given to specialised papers where applicable. The goal of the project was to implement wind farm power output prediction systems in operational environments at a number of utilities in Europe. Two models were developed, one by Risoe and one by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Both prediction models used HIRLAM predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). (au) EFP-94; EU-JOULE. 11 refs.

  6. Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

  7. Seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kryjov, Vladimir N

    2012-01-01

    An overview of the current status of the operational seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia is presented. It is shown that the performance of existing climate models is rather poor in seasonal prediction for North Eurasia. Multi-model ensemble forecasts are more reliable than single-model ones; however, for North Eurasia they tend to be close to climatological ones. Application of downscaling methods may improve predictions for some locations (or regions). However, general improvement of the reliability of seasonal forecasts for North Eurasia requires improvement of the climate prediction models. (letter)

  8. Predictions of High Energy Experimental Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comay E.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Eight predictions of high energy experimental results are presented. The predictions contain the $Sigma ^+$ charge radius and results of two kinds of experiments using energetic pionic beams. In addition, predictions of the failure to find the following objects are presented: glueballs, pentaquarks, Strange Quark Matter, magnetic monopoles searched by their direct interaction with charges and the Higgs boson. The first seven predictions rely on the Regular Charge-Monopole Theory and the last one relies on mathematical inconsistencies of the Higgs Lagrangian density.

  9. Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

    The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

  10. Recent Advances in Predictive (Machine) Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman, J

    2004-01-24

    Prediction involves estimating the unknown value of an attribute of a system under study given the values of other measured attributes. In prediction (machine) learning the prediction rule is derived from data consisting of previously solved cases. Most methods for predictive learning were originated many years ago at the dawn of the computer age. Recently two new techniques have emerged that have revitalized the field. These are support vector machines and boosted decision trees. This paper provides an introduction to these two new methods tracing their respective ancestral roots to standard kernel methods and ordinary decision trees.

  11. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Bruce Hardison [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stein, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  12. Computer loss experience and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Donn B.

    1996-03-01

    The types of losses organizations must anticipate have become more difficult to predict because of the eclectic nature of computers and the data communications and the decrease in news media reporting of computer-related losses as they become commonplace. Total business crime is conjectured to be decreasing in frequency and increasing in loss per case as a result of increasing computer use. Computer crimes are probably increasing, however, as their share of the decreasing business crime rate grows. Ultimately all business crime will involve computers in some way, and we could see a decline of both together. The important information security measures in high-loss business crime generally concern controls over authorized people engaged in unauthorized activities. Such controls include authentication of users, analysis of detailed audit records, unannounced audits, segregation of development and production systems and duties, shielding the viewing of screens, and security awareness and motivation controls in high-value transaction areas. Computer crimes that involve highly publicized intriguing computer misuse methods, such as privacy violations, radio frequency emanations eavesdropping, and computer viruses, have been reported in waves that periodically have saturated the news media during the past 20 years. We must be able to anticipate such highly publicized crimes and reduce the impact and embarrassment they cause. On the basis of our most recent experience, I propose nine new types of computer crime to be aware of: computer larceny (theft and burglary of small computers), automated hacking (use of computer programs to intrude), electronic data interchange fraud (business transaction fraud), Trojan bomb extortion and sabotage (code security inserted into others' systems that can be triggered to cause damage), LANarchy (unknown equipment in use), desktop forgery (computerized forgery and counterfeiting of documents), information anarchy (indiscriminate use of

  13. LocTree3 prediction of localization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldberg, T.; Hecht, M.; Hamp, T.

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of protein sub-cellular localization is an important step toward elucidating protein function. For each query protein sequence, LocTree2 applies machine learning (profile kernel SVM) to predict the native sub-cellular localization in 18 classes for eukaryotes, in six for bacteria a...

  14. The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

  15. Link Label Prediction in Signed Citation Network

    KAUST Repository

    Akujuobi, Uchenna Thankgod

    2016-01-01

    such as using regression, trust propagation and matrix factorization. These approaches have tried to solve the problem of link label prediction by using ideas from social theories, where most of them predict a single missing label given that labels of other

  16. Predicting Handwriting Difficulties through Spelling Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Cristina; Villarroel, Rebeca

    2017-01-01

    This study examined whether spelling tasks contribute to the prediction of the handwriting status of children with poor and good handwriting skills in a cross-sectional study with 276 Spanish children from Grades 1 and 3. The main hypothesis was that the spelling tasks would predict the handwriting status of the children, although this influence…

  17. Selecting Suitable Candidates for Predictive Maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tiddens, Wieger Willem; Braaksma, Anne Johannes Jan; Tinga, Tiedo

    2018-01-01

    Predictive maintenance (PdM) or Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) assists in better predicting the future state of physical assets and making timely and better-informed maintenance decisions. Many companies nowadays ambition the implementation of such an advanced maintenance policy. However,

  18. Prediction of twin-arginine signal peptides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jannick Dyrløv; Nielsen, Henrik; Widdick, D.

    2005-01-01

    expressions, whereas hydrophobicity discrimination of Tat- and Sec- signal peptides is carried out by an artificial neural network. A potential cleavage site of the predicted Tat signal peptide is also reported. The TatP prediction server is available as a public web server at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/TatP/....

  19. Predicting Liaison: an Example-Based Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greefhorst, A.P.M.; Bosch, A.P.J. van den

    2016-01-01

    Predicting liaison in French is a non-trivial problem to model. We compare a memory-based machine-learning algorithm with a rule-based baseline. The memory-based learner is trained to predict whether liaison occurs between two words on the basis of lexical, orthographic, morphosyntactic, and

  20. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging